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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Benjamin Hartung; Philip Jung; Moritz Kuhn |
| Abstract: | A key question in labor market research is how the unemployment insurance system affects unemployment rates and labor market dynamics. We revisit this old question studying the German Hartz reforms. On average, lower separation rates explain 76% of declining unemployment after the reform, a fact unexplained by existing research focusing on job finding rates. The reduction in separation rates is heterogeneous, with long-term employed, high-wage workers being most affected. We causally link our empirical findings to the reduction in long-term unemployment benefits using a heterogeneous-agent labor market search model. Absent the reform, unemployment rates would be 50% higher today. |
| Keywords: | unemployment insurance, labor market flows, endogenous separations |
| JEL: | E24 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7379&r=all |
| By: | Florian Knauth; Jens Wrona |
| Abstract: | We present supportive empirical evidence and a new theoretical explanation for the negative selection into planned return migration between similar regions in Germany. In our model costly temporary and permanent migration are used as imperfect signals to indicate workers’ high but otherwise unobservable skills. Production thereby takes place in teams with individual skills as strategic complements. Wages therefore are determined by team performance and not by individual skill, which is why migration inflicts a wage loss on all workers, who expect the quality of their co-workers to decline. In order to internalise this negative migration externality, which leads to sub-optimally high levels of temporary and permanent migration in a laissezfaire equilibrium, we propose a mix of two policy instruments, which reduce initial outmigration while at the same time inducing later return migration. |
| Keywords: | return migration, signalling, selection, strategic complementarity, matching |
| JEL: | R23 J61 D82 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7388&r=all |
| By: | Ege Aksu (The Graduate Center, CUNY, Economics); Refik Erzan (Department of Economics, Bogazici University); Murat Guray Kirdar (Department of Economics, Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian migrants in Turkey by the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives, using a difference-in-differences IV methodology. We show that relaxing the common-trend assumption of this methodology -unlike recent papers in the same setting- makes a substantial difference in several key outcomes. Despite the massive size of the migrant influx, no adverse effects on the average wages of men or women or on total employment of men are observed. For women, however, total employment falls -which results mainly from the elimination of part-time jobs. While the migrant influx has adverse effects on competing native workers in the informal sector, it has favorable effects on complementary workers in the formal sector. We estimate about one-to-one replacement in employment for native men in the informal sector, whereas both wage employment and wages of men in the formal sector increase. Our findings, including those on the heterogeneity of effects by age and education, are consistent with the implications of the canonical migration model. In addition, increases in prices in the product market and in capital flow to the treatment regions contribute to the rise in labor demand in the formal sector. |
| Keywords: | Labor Force and Employment; Wages; Immigrant Workers; Formal and Informal Sectors; Syrian Refugees; Turkey; Difference-in-differences; Instrumental Variables. |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J61 C26 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1815&r=all |
| By: | Brian Bell; Jack Blundell; Stephen Machin |
| Abstract: | Does the importance of your family background on how far you get in adulthood also depend on where you grow up? For many countries, Britain included, a paucity of data has made this a question with very little reliable evidence to answer. To redress this evidence lacuna, we present a new analysis of intergenerational mobility across three cohorts in England and Wales using linked decennial census microdata. As well as testing the robustness of existing survey evidence on mobility trends over time, this large dataset permits analysis to be undertaken at a more geographically disaggregated level than was previously feasible. Evidence is presented on occupational wages, home ownership and education. Our new analysis shows a slight decline in occupation-wage mobility and a substantial decline in home ownership mobility over the late 20th century in England and Wales, while the picture for educational mobility is less clear. Focusing on the most recent cohort, we find marked geographic differences in mobility. We find that occupation-wage mobility is exceptionally high in London, while ex-industrial and mining areas experience the lowest rates of mobility. Areas with low occupation-wage mobility were more likely to vote to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum. Home ownership mobility is negatively correlated with house prices and not correlated with occupation-wage mobility, suggesting that geographical comparisons based on one dimension of mobility need not always align with those based on alternative measures. |
| JEL: | J62 R23 R31 I24 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1591&r=all |
| By: | Kellermann, Kim Leonie; Winter, Simon |
| Abstract: | We empirically examine the relationship between shares of foreigners in a district and the share of votes cast in that district for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the major anti-immigrant party in the 2017 German parliamentary election. The classic theory on the political economy of migration supposes that immigration fosters opposing sentiments among the natives due to fiercer competition for jobs, housing and public goods. Notably, the vote distribution in the 2017 election suggests that AfD vote shares are higher in districts with fewer foreign inhabitants. We exploit administrative data on election results and district-specific features to study a potentially causal effect. As the share of foreigners in a district may be endogenous, we apply an IV approach, using the number of working permits as an instrument for the share of foreign residents. Our results corroborate the Contact Theory, which states that more intensive exposure to and contact with immigrants reduce the propensity for anti-immigrant voting. We find that a 10 % increase in the population share of foreigners is associated with a 2.6 % lower vote share for the AfD. By contrast, a strong increase in the number of asylum seekers positively adds to AfD support. |
| Keywords: | migration,anti-immigrant parties,contact theory,ethnic competition,economic competition |
| JEL: | D72 D91 J15 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:52018&r=all |
| By: | Manuel Barron (Universidad del Pacífico); Sam Heft-Neal (Standford University); Tania Perez (Universidad del Pacífico) |
| Abstract: | Extensive evidence shows that weather conditions during gestation affect birth outcomes and early childhood development in the developing world. Pairing weather data during gestation with education and labor outcomes for more than one million people, we show that in-utero weather has lasting effects through adulthood: temperature during gestation affects schooling attainment, earnings, and access to formal employment among females in Peru, but not among males. We identify maternal anemia as a key driver of these outcomes. Our findings suggest that the persistent negative effects of temperature around birth can be mitigated through improved health services for vulnerable mothers. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Human Capital Formation, Labor Markets |
| JEL: | I12 I21 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apc:wpaper:134&r=all |
| By: | Elena Rusticelli; David Haugh; Axelle Arquie; Lilas Demmou |
| Abstract: | The increase of emerging market economies in international trade and rapid rise in global trade intensity over the past three decades has been accompanied by growing, regionally concentrated, discontent with trade in advanced OECD countries. One of the main concerns is the negative effects of growing import competition on employment. This paper focuses on manufacturing sector employment because of its high trade exposure and potential for wider spillovers. It finds that while trade appears to have only a minor association with manufacturing employment shares at the national level compared with technology, trade has an important role in regional labour market developments due to the geographical concentration of industrial activities. The "sticky" nature of manufacturing employment and sometimes inefficient inter-regional migration mean that trade shocks to local manufacturing can affect entire regional labour markets, leading to widening regional inequalities. Policies should, in particular, focus on boosting regional resilience to industry related shocks, whether they come from trade or technology by building local capacity, both in terms of people – more educated labour is more mobile across jobs – and innovation. |
| Keywords: | employment, inequality, labour market, manufacturing, regions, technology, trade, wages |
| JEL: | F16 J61 O19 |
| Date: | 2018–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1530-en&r=all |
| By: | Panu Poutvaara; Maximilian Schwefer |
| Abstract: | An emerging literature highlights the importance of empowering women. Female decision-making power is typically measured by surveying only one partner, but the few studies surveying both have documented large differences in perceptions. We analyze these perceptions and their consequences, using survey data from Indonesia. Both male and female respondents systematically report a higher share of decision domains in which they decide. Female labor supply and contraception use are higher when both partners perceive female decision-making power in these domains. Increases in female income share are associated with increases in the perceived female decision-making power. |
| JEL: | J16 D13 J13 J22 C83 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_279&r=all |
| By: | Arnaud Herault (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage); Eva Moreno-Galbis (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); François-Charles Wolff (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UN - Université de Nantes - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques) |
| Abstract: | There is a large consensus in the literature on the major role of social networks as a helpful instrument to find a job. In this paper, we study the social network matching rate along the economic cycle both from a theoretical and empirical perspective. Using the French Labor Force Survey for the period 2003-2012, we find that the relationship between the network matching rate based on direct ties and the job finding rate is decreasing and convex as predicted by our theoretical setup. Results are completely modified when we consider a measure of the network matching rate based on indirect ties related to the share of peers in a job. In this case, we find a linearly increasing relation between the network matching rate and the job finding rate. This underlines not only the heterogeneous ways through which network membership may influence the individuals' performance on the labor market, but also the different behaviors of these driving factors along the economic cycle. |
| Keywords: | employment,network matching rate,direct and indirect ties,job finding rate,immigrants |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01935582&r=all |
| By: | Maria Bas; Pamela Bombarda; Sébastien Jean; Gianluca Orefice |
| Abstract: | Inequalities between workers of different skills have been growing in the era of globalization. Firms' internationalization mode has an impact on job stability. Exporting firms are not only exposed to different foreign shocks, they also pay skill-intensive fixed costs to serve foreign markets. This implies that, for larger exporters, the labor demand for skilled workers is expected to be less volatile than for unskilled workers. In this paper we study the relationship between firms' export activity and job stability across employment skills. Relying on detailed firm-level data from France for the period 1996-2007, we show that firms with higher export intensity exhibit a lower volatility of skilled labor demand relative to the volatility of unskilled labor demand. Our identification strategy is based on an instrumental variable approach to provide evidence on the causal effect of the export performance of the firm on the volatility of employment of different skills. Our findings suggest that exporting increases the stability of skilled jobs, but feeds the precariousness of unskilled ones. |
| Keywords: | Exports;Employment Volatility;Skiller Labor;Firm-level Data |
| JEL: | F1 F16 L25 L60 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-20&r=all |
| By: | Boudreaux, Christopher; Nikolaev, Boris |
| Abstract: | We examine how the institutional context affects the relationship between gender and opportunity entrepreneurship. To do this, we develop a multi-level model that connects feminist theory at the micro-level to institutional theory at the macro-level. It is hypothesized that the gender gap in opportunity entrepreneurship is more pronounced in low-quality institutional contexts and less pronounced in high-quality institutional contexts. Using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) and regulation data from the economic freedom of the world index (EFW), we test our predictions and find evidence in support of our model. Our findings suggest that, while there is a gender gap in entrepreneurship, these disparities are reduced as the quality of the institutional context improves. |
| Keywords: | female entrepreneurship, gender gaps, opportunity entrepreneurship, institutional context, regulation |
| JEL: | L26 |
| Date: | 2018–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:90402&r=all |
| By: | Catherine Laffineur (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Eva Moreno Galbis (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jeremy Tanguy (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Ahmed Tritah (GAINS-TEPP - UM - Le Mans Université) |
| Abstract: | Over the period 1994-2012, immigrants' wage growth in France has outperformed that of natives on average by more than 14 percentage points. This striking wage growth performance occurs despite similar changes in employment shares along the occupational wage ladder. In this paper we investigate the sources of immigrants' relative wage performance focusing on the role of occupational tasks. We first show that immigrants' higher wage growth is not driven by more favorable changes in general skills (measured by age, education and residence duration), and then investigate to what extent changes in task-specific returns to skills have contributed to the differential wage dynamics through two different channels: different changes in the valuation of skills ("price effect") and different occupational sorting ("quantity effect"). We find that the wage growth premium of immigrants is not explained by different changes in returns to skills across occupational tasks but rather by the progressive reallocation of immigrants towards tasks whose returns have increased over time. Immigrants seem to have taken advantage of ongoing labor demand restructuring driven by globalization and technological change. In addition im- migrants' wages have been relatively more affected by minimum wage increases, due to their higher concentration in this part of the wage distribution. |
| Keywords: | wage dynamics,tasks,immigrants,skills |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01935602&r=all |
| By: | Xue, Melanie Meng |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a unique historical experiment: the cotton revolution and its impact on the emergence of gender-equitable beliefs. The cotton revolution led to a prolonged phase (1300-1840 AD) of high productivity for women. I hypothesize that a substantial, long-standing increase in relative female income eroded a highly resilient cultural belief: women are less capable than men. I examine a period when economic gains from the cotton revolution faded. Using variation across 1,489 counties in cotton spinning and weaving, I find that the cotton revolution reduces sex selection. This result is supported by survey evidence on gender equitable beliefs. I instrument cotton weaving with the range of relative humidity within which cotton yarn can be smoothly woven into cloth. I document an initial impact of the cotton revolution on widow suicides. To isolate the cultural channel, I examine the effects of the cotton revolution under post-1949 state socialism, where both genders had similar economic opportunities, political and legal rights, and show that pre-1840 cotton weaving predicts a higher probability for the wife to head the household. I document the distinctive role of high-value work in the perception of women. Low-value work performed by women, such as cotton cultivation, does not correct prenatal sex selection. |
| Keywords: | Culture, relative female income, gender-equitable beliefs |
| JEL: | I1 J16 N0 N35 Z1 |
| Date: | 2018–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:91100&r=all |
| By: | Francisco José Goerlich Gisbert (Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas - Ivie); Alba Miñano (Universitat de València) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the families of unemployment indexes sensitive to unemployment duration developed by Sengupta (2009) and Shorrocks (2009a, 2009b). They pick-up in a single index the 3 dimensions of unemployment: incidence, intensity and inequality. An application with the Spanish Labor Force Survey for the period 2001-2017 is offered, and some interesting results arise. In particular, when unemployment duration is taken into account, a less optimistic view of the recent recovery appears, since one of the consequences of the Great Recession has been the huge increase in the very long-term unemployed. Moreover, vulnerable groups in the society should also be measured taking into account not only the incidence of unemployment, but also intensity and inequality, and when we do so other highly vulnerable groups emerge. |
| Keywords: | measurement of unemployment, spell duration, Spanish labour market. |
| JEL: | D30 D63 I31 J64 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2018-02&r=all |
| By: | Auer, Raphael; Bonadio, Barthelemy; Levchenko, Andrei A. |
| Abstract: | Abstract We provide a quantitative assessment of both the aggregate and the distributional effects of revoking NAFTA, using a multi-country, multi-sector, multi-factor model of world production and trade with global input-output linkages. Revoking NAFTA would reduce US welfare by about 0.2%, and Canadian and Mexican welfare by about 2%. The distributional impacts of revoking NAFTA across workers in different sectors are an order of magnitude larger in all three countries, ranging from -2.7 to 2.26% in the United States. We combine the quantitative results with information on the geographic distribution of sectoral employment, and compute average real wage changes in each US congressional district, Mexican state, and Canadian province. We then examine the political correlates of the economic effects. Congressional district-level real wage changes are negatively correlated with the Trump vote share in 2016: districts that voted more for Trump would on average experience greater real wage reductions if NAFTA is revoked. |
| Keywords: | Distributional Effects; NAFTA; protectionism; quantitative trade models; trade policy |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F16 J62 R13 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13393&r=all |
| By: | Collischon, Matthias; Eberl, Andreas; Jahn, Kerstin (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "Compulsory military service is still a prominent feature of young people's careers in many countries. We use the abolition of compulsory military and civil service for males in 2011 in Germany as a natural experiment to identify effects of institutionalized career disruptions on life satisfaction. Drawing on data from the SOEP, we apply a difference-in-differences design (comparing young males and females) to assess the causal effect of this reform on individual life satisfaction. Our results show a significant and robust positive effect of the abolition of compulsory service on young males' life satisfaction. Furthermore, we provide empirical evidence that reductions in career disruptions, forgone earnings, uncertainty regarding the future, and forced labor contribute to this effect." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | I31 I38 J18 |
| Date: | 2018–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201824&r=all |
| By: | Hasanov, Shavkat; Sanaev, Golib |
| Abstract: | Nonfarm employment plays an important role in absorbing unemployment in rural areas of developing countries. The agricultural transition in Uzbekistan followed by structural transformations in the economy changed the rural economy. Although farm restructuring and farm optimization policies led to agricultural growth, they had a negative impact on rural employment. The government of Uzbekistan promoted many policies to create jobs within the country. A presidential decree launched the State Program on Rural Development and Well-being in 2009, which played a crucial role in developing the economic and social infrastructure of rural areas. Small business and private entrepreneurship were given priority to absorb the rising unemployment, especially in rural areas. Against this background, the paper studies non-farm employment trends in rural areas of Samarkand region. In particular, we explore the main drivers of non-farm business development and its impact on rural employment in the Samarkand region. The main employment trends in rural areas of Samarkand region are described using statistical data. We also explore migration trends in Uzbekistan and Samarkand regions. A survey was conducted with 34 mahallas' (community) chairpersons and representatives to better analyze the intersectoral and international migration of the agricultural workforce. Although remittances are crucial in poverty alleviation of Central Asian countries, including Uzbekistan, the economic crisis in 2008-2009 in Russia cast a shadow on the further prospects of migration. We show how the development of non-agricultural business in the Samarkand region increased the incomes of the rural population. The agro-processing sector plays a vital role in creating clusters based on the agro-industrial complex, which in turn will create more opportunities for employment in rural areas of the country. |
| Keywords: | Employment,the Rural Nonfarm Economy (RNFE),Non-Agricultural Business,Rural Area,Samarkand Region |
| JEL: | P41 J60 J68 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:176&r=all |