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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Finseraas, Henning (Institute for Social Research, Oslo); Roed, Marianne (Institute for Social Research, Oslo); Schone, Pal (Institute for Social Research, Oslo) |
| Abstract: | To what extent is labour mobility in the European Union a threat to the strength of unions? We argue that the combination of cheap labour, workforce heterogeneity, and low unionization among labour immigrants' is a potential challenge for unions. The challenge will be particularly severe if immigrant competition affects natives' propensity to unionize. We examine this claim using Norwegian administrative data in a natural experiment framework. The 2004 EU expansion led to a rapid increase in labour migration to the construction sector. Licensing demands, however, protected some workers from immigrant competition. Comparisons of protected and exposed workers reveal negative labour market effects of the EU expansion for exposed workers, but no effect on union membership. Our results question important theories of unionization and are relevant for research on immigration, political behaviour and collective action. |
| Keywords: | immigration, union, wages, employment |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J51 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11723&r=lab |
| By: | Dario Sansone |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how the legalization of same-sex marriage in the U.S. affected gay and lesbian couples in the labor market. Results from a difference-in-difference model show that both partners in same-sex couples were more likely to be employed, have a full-time contract, and work longer hours in states that legalized same-sex marriage. Following the predictions from a theoretical search model with prejudiced employers and minority workers, empirical evidence suggests that marriage equality led to improvements in employment outcomes among gay and lesbian couples, and to lower occupational segregation, thanks to a decrease in discrimination towards sexual minorities. |
| JEL: | D10 J12 J15 J22 |
| Date: | 2018–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jmp:jm2018:psa1336&r=lab |
| By: | Carlo Pizzinelli (University of Oxford); Konstantinos Theodoridis (Cardiff Business School); Francesco Zanetti (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents state dependence in labor market Fluctuations. Using a Threshold Vector-Autoregression model, we establish that the unemployment rate, the job separation rate and the job finding rate exhibit a larger response to productivity shocks during periods with low aggregate productivity. A Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous job separation and on-the-job search replicates these empirical regularities well. The transition rates into and out of employment embed state dependence through the interaction of reservation productivity levels and the distribution of match-specifc idiosyncratic productivity. State dependence implies that the effect of labor market reforms is different across phases of the business cycle. A permanent removal of layoff taxes is welfare enhancing in the long run, but it involves distinct short-run costs depending on the initial state of the economy. The welfare gain of a tax removal implemented in a low-productivity state is 4.9 percent larger than the same reform enacted in a state with high aggregate productivity. |
| Keywords: | Search and Matching Models, State Dependence in Business Cycles, Threshold Vector Autoregression. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J64 C11 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbk:bbkcam:1801&r=lab |
| By: | Schmidpeter, Bernhard; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of automation and offshorability on unemployment duration and post-unemployment outcomes such as wages and employment stability. Our rich administrative data allow us to evaluate the importance of providing unemployment training in this context. Employing a multivariate mixed proportional hazard model to deal with selectivity, we find that both the routine content in tasks as well as the probability of off-shoring negatively affects the re-employment possibilities. Labor market training is helping workers to ameliorate these negative effects and is remarkably on the spot. For workers who find re-employment, our results show that offshorability (but not automation) affects future job duration and wages positively. Our analysis reveals interesting differences by gender. |
| JEL: | J64 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13112&r=lab |
| By: | Ferrara, Andreas (Department of Economics and CAGE University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that the unprecedented socioeconomic rise of African Americans at mid-century is causally related to the labor shortages induced by WWII. Results from combining novel military and Census data in a di erence-in-differences setting show that counties with an average casualty rate among semi-skilled whites experienced a 13 to 16% increase in the share of blacks in semi-skilled jobs. The casualty rate also has a significant reduced form effect on cross-state migration, wages, home ownership, house value, and education for blacks. Using survey data from 1961, IV regression results indicate that the economic upgrade, which is instrumented with the semi-skilled white casualty rate, is also associated with an increase in social status. Both black and white individuals living in treated counties are more likely to have an interracial friendship, live in mixed-race neighborhoods, and to have reduced preferences for segregation |
| Keywords: | African-Americans ; Inequality ; Race-Relations ; World War II JEL Classification: J15 ; J24 ; N42 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:387&r=lab |
| By: | Toshihiko Mukoyama (Department of Economics, Georgetown University); Mototsugu Shintani (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Kazuhiro Teramoto (Department of Economics, New York University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the dynamics of full-time employment and part-time employment over the business cycle. We first document basic macroeconomic facts on these employment stocks using the U.S. data and decompose their cyclical dynamics into the contributions of different flows into and out of these stocks. Second, we develop and estimate a New Keynesian search-and-matching model with two labor markets to uncover the fundamental driving forces of the cyclical dynamics of employment stocks. We find that the procyclicality of the net flow from part-time to full-time employment is essential in accounting for countercyclical patterns of part-time employment. |
| Keywords: | Part-time employment; Bayesian estimation; DSGE model; Search, matching and bargaining. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2018–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~18-18-04&r=lab |
| By: | Bhalotra, Sonia R. (University of Essex); Clarke, Damian (Universidad de Santiago de Chile) |
| Abstract: | Twin births are often construed as a natural experiment in the social and natural sciences on the premise that the occurrence of twins is quasi-random. We present new population-level evidence that challenges this premise. Using individual data for 17 million births in 72 countries, we demonstrate that indicators of mother's health and health-related behaviours are systematically positively associated with the probability of a twin birth. The estimated associations are sizeable, evident in richer and poorer countries, evident even among women who do not use IVF, and hold for numerous different measures of health. We discuss potential mechanisms, showing evidence that favours selective miscarriage. Positive selection of women into twinning implies that estimates of impacts of fertility on parental investments and on women's labour supply that use twin births to instrument fertility will tend to be downward biased. This is pertinent given the emerging consensus that these relationships are weak. Our findings also potentially challenge the external validity of studies that rely upon twin differences. |
| Keywords: | parental investment, fertility, miscarriage, maternal health, twins, women's labor supply |
| JEL: | J12 J13 C13 D13 I12 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11742&r=lab |
| By: | Lalive, Rafael |
| Abstract: | We study how job search assistance (JSA) affects employment in a randomized pilot study with long run administrative data. JSA increases employment in the first year after assignment. In the second year, when most job seekers have left JSA, the employment gains evaporate, and even turn into losses in the third year. This sinusoidal pattern is consistent with job finding and employment loss transitions. Job seekers assigned to JSA find employment faster but, once employed, also lose employment faster, especially once eligible for new unemployment benefits. Job seekers assigned to JSA have similar types of contracts and re-employment earnings, but somewhat worse positions in the firm and are more likely to have a part time job. |
| Keywords: | active labor-market policy; job loss; job placement; job search assistance; long term unemployment |
| JEL: | J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13133&r=lab |
| By: | Ufuk Akcigit; John Grigsby; Tom Nicholas; Stefanie Stantcheva |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the United States over the twentieth century. We use three new datasets: a panel of the universe of inventors who patent since 1920; a dataset of the employment, location and patents of firms active in R&D since 1921; and a historical state-level corporate tax database since 1900, which we link to an existing database on state-level personal income taxes. Our analysis focuses on the impact of taxes on individual inventors and firms (the micro level) and on states over time (the macro level). We propose several identification strategies, all of which yield consistent results: i) OLS with fixed effects, including inventor and state-times-year fixed effects, which make use of differences between tax brackets within a state-year cell and which absorb heterogeneity and contemporaneous changes in economic conditions; ii) an instrumental variable approach, which predicts changes in an individual or firm's total tax rate with changes in the federal tax rate only; iii) a border county strategy, which exploits tax variation across neighboring counties in different states. We find that taxes matter for innovation: higher personal and corporate income taxes negatively affect the quantity, quality, and location of inventive activity at the macro and micro levels. At the macro level, cross-state spillovers or business-stealing from one state to another are important, but do not account for all of the effect. Agglomeration effects from local innovation clusters tend to weaken responsiveness to taxation. Corporate inventors respond more strongly to taxes than their non-corporate counterparts. |
| JEL: | H24 H25 H31 J61 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24982&r=lab |
| By: | Charlie Eaton; Sabrina Howell; Constantine Yannelis |
| Abstract: | This paper uses private equity buyouts to study a transition from lower- to higher-powered profit-maximizing incentives in higher education, a sector heavily dependent on government subsidy. Private equity owners have especially high-powered incentives to maximize profits. In a subsidized industry, this could intensify focus on capturing government aid at the expense of consumer outcomes. Employing novel data on 88 private equity deals and 994 schools with private equity ownership, we find that private equity buyouts lead to higher enrollment and profits, but also to lower education inputs, higher tuition, higher per-student debt, lower graduation rates, lower student loan repayment rates, and lower earnings among graduates. Neither changes to the student body composition nor a selection mechanism fully explain our results. In a series of tests exploiting regulatory events and thresholds, we find that private equity-owned schools are better able to capture government aid. |
| JEL: | G24 G38 H52 I2 J01 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24976&r=lab |
| By: | John J. Conlon; Laura Pilossoph; Matthew Wiswall; Basit Zafar |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of information frictions in the US labor market using a new nationally representative panel dataset on individuals' labor market expectations and realizations. We find that expectations about future job offers are, on average, highly predictive of actual outcomes. Despite their predictive power, however, deviations of ex post realizations from ex ante expectations are often sizable. The panel aspect of the data allows us to study how individuals update their labor market expectations in response to such shocks. We find a strong response: an individual who receives a job offer one dollar above her expectation subsequently adjusts her expectations upward by $0.47. The updating patterns we document are, on the whole, inconsistent with Bayesian updating. We embed the empirical evidence on expectations and learning into a model of search on- and off- the job with learning, and show that it is far better able to fit the data on reservation wages relative to a model that assumes complete information. The estimated model indicates that workers would have lower employment transition responses to changes in the value of unemployment through higher unemployment benefits than in a complete information model, suggesting that assuming workers have complete information can bias estimates of the predictions of government interventions. We use the framework to gauge the welfare costs of information frictions which arise because individuals make uninformed job acceptance decisions and find that the costs due to information frictions are sizable, but are largely mitigated by the presence of learning. |
| JEL: | D83 D84 J64 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24988&r=lab |