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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Francesco Fasani (QMUL, CReAM, IZA and CEPR); Tommaso Frattini (University of Milan, LdA, CReAM, IZA and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use repeated cross-sectional survey data to study the labour market performance of refugees across several EU countries and over time. In the first part, we document that labour market outcomes for refugees are consistently worse than those of other comparable migrants. The gap remains sizeable even after controlling for individual characteristics as well as for cohort and destination country. Refugees are 11.6 percent less likely to have a job and 22.1 percent more likely to be unemployed than migrants with similar characteristics. Moreover, their income, occupational quality and labour market participation are also relatively weaker. This gap persists until about 10 years after immigration. In the second part, we assess the role of asylum policies in explaining the observed refugee gap. We conduct a difference-in-differences analysis that exploits the differential timing of dispersal policy enactment across European countries: we show that refugee cohorts exposed to these policies have persistently worse labour market outcomes. Further, we find that entry cohorts admitted when refugee status recognition rates are relatively high integrate better into the host country labour market. |
| Keywords: | Asylum seekers; assimilation; refugee gap; asylum policies. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 J15 |
| Date: | 2018–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:435&r=lab |
| By: | Teichert, Christian; Niebuhr, Annekatrin (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Otto, Anne (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Rossen, Anja (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "We use administrative social security records and event history methods to investigate graduate migration in Germany. The results indicate that most migration events happen up to seven years after graduation. Work experience gathered before and during the studies influences the migration decision, pointing to the importance of labour market contacts and social networks. In contrast to previous studies we do not detect a genuine negative duration dependence for the probability of leaving the region of study. When labour market entry outside the university region is considered there is some indication for cumulative stress." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Hochschulabsolventen, regionale Mobilität, Studienabschluss, Abwanderung, Hochschule, Standort, Mobilitätsbereitschaft - Determinanten, regionaler Arbeitsmarkt, soziale Beziehungen, Berufseinmündung, Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien |
| JEL: | C41 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2018–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201803&r=lab |
| By: | Cebreros Zurita Carlos Alfonso |
| Abstract: | This article combines data on trade flows with a novel construction of the distribution of skill in the population, based on the results from the International Adult Literacy Survey of the OECD, to evaluate the empirical importance of the distribution of talent as a determinant of the sectoral pattern of trade. It is found that both the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of skills are significant determinants of the pattern of trade. According to the results, cross-country differences in the distribution of skills explain more of the sectoral pattern of trade than differences in capital stocks and differences in indicators of a country's institutional framework. |
| Keywords: | comparative advantage;labor force composition;factor endowments;human capital |
| JEL: | F12 F14 F16 J82 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2018-01&r=lab |
| By: | Isaac Baley; Lars Ljungqvist; Thomas J. Sargent |
| Abstract: | Ljungqvist and Sargent (1998, 2008) show that worse skill transition probabilities for workers who suffer involuntary layoffs (i.e., increases in turbulence) generate higher unemployment in a welfare state. den Haan, Haefke and Ramey (2005) challenge this finding by showing that if higher turbulence means that voluntary quits are also exposed to even a tiny risk of skill loss, then higher turbulence leads to lower unemployment within their matching model. We show (1) that there is no such brittleness of the positive turbulence-unemployment relationship in the matching model of Ljungqvist and Sargent (2007) even if we add such “quit turbulence”, and (2) that if den Haan et al. had calibrated their productivity distribution to fit observed unemployment patterns that they miss, then they too would have found a positive turbulence-unemployment relationship in their model. Thus, we trace den Haan et al.’s finding to their assuming a narrower productivity distribution than Ljungqvist and Sargent had. Because den Haan et al. assume a distribution with such narrow support that it implies small returns to reallocating labor, even a small mobility cost shuts down voluntary separations. But that means that the imposition of a small layoff cost in tranquil times has counterfactually large unemployment suppression effects. When the parameterization is adjusted to fit historical observations on unemployment and layoff costs, a positive relationship between turbulence and unemployment reemerges. |
| Keywords: | matching model, skills, turbulence, unemployment, layoffs, quits, layoff costs. |
| JEL: | E24 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1598&r=lab |
| By: | Marco Bertoni; Giorgio Brunello; Lorenzo Cappellari (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the effects of schoolmates’ gender and average parental education on educational achievement, employment and earnings vary with individual family characteristics such as the gender of siblings and own parental education. We find that the benefits from exposure to “privileged” peers accrue mainly to “disadvantaged” students and decline when the dispersion of parental education in the school increases. We also show that boys with sisters who are exposed to a higher share of girls at school have poorer employment prospects. The opposite is true for girls who have sisters. Overall, the size of the estimated effects is small. |
| Keywords: | education peer effects, gender, parental background, human capital production, long term outcomes. |
| JEL: | I21 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def064&r=lab |
| By: | Salvador Barrios; Mathias Dolls; Anamaria Maftei; Andreas Peichl; Sara Riscado; Janos Varga; Christian Wittneben |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present the first dynamic scoring exercise linking a microsimulation and a dynamic general equilibrium model for Europe. We illustrate our novel methodology analysing hypothetical reforms of the social insurance contributions system in Belgium. Our approach takes into account the feedback effects resulting from adjustments and behavioral responses in the labor market and the economy-wide reaction to the tax policy changes, essential for a comprehensive evaluation of the reforms. We find that the self-financing effect of a reduction in employers’ social insurance contribution is substantially larger than that of a comparable reduction in employees’ social insurance contributions. |
| Keywords: | Tax Reform, European Union. |
| JEL: | H20 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_251&r=lab |
| By: | Elira Kuka (Southern Methodist University); Na’ama Shenhav (Dartmouth College); Kevin Shih (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the human capital responses to a large shock in the returns to education for undocumented youth. We obtain variation in the benefits of schooling from the enactment of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy in 2012, which provides work authorization and deferral from deportation for high school educated youth. We implement a difference-in-differences design by comparing DACA eligible to non-eligible individuals over time, and we find that DACA had a significant impact on the investment decisions of undocumented youth. High school graduation rates increased by 15 percent while teenage births declined by 45 percent. Further, we find that college attendance increased by 25 percent among women, suggesting that DACA raised aspirations for education above and beyond qualifying for legal status. We find that the same individuals who acquire more schooling also work more (at the same time), counter to the typical intuition that these behaviors are mutually exclusive, indicating that the program generated a large boost in productivity. |
| Keywords: | Returns to education, schooling, fertility, amnesty, undocumented immigrants |
| JEL: | I20 J13 J1 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smu:ecowpa:1802&r=lab |
| By: | Ortega, Francesc (Queens College, CUNY); Edwards, Ryan (University of California, Berkeley); Hsin, Amy (Queens College, CUNY) |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the economic effects of two major immigration reforms aimed at legalizing undocumented individuals that entered the United States as children and completed high school: Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and the DREAM Act. The former offers only temporary legal status to eligible individuals; the latter provides a track to legal permanent residence. Our analysis is based on a general-equilibrium model that allows for shifts in participation between work, college and non-employment. The model is calibrated to account for productivity differences across workers of different skills and documentation status, and a rich pattern of complementarities across different types of workers. We estimate DACA increased GDP by almost 0.02% (about $3.5 billion), or $7,454 per legalized worker. Passing the DREAM Act would increase GDP by around 0.08% (or $15.2 billion), which amounts to an average of $15,371 for each legalized worker. The larger effects of the DREAM Act stem from the expected larger take-up and the increased incentive to attend college among DREAMers with a high school degree. We also find substantial wage increases for individuals obtaining legal status, particularly for individuals that increase their educational attainment. Because of the small size of the DREAMer population, legalization entails negligible effects on the wages of US-born workers. |
| Keywords: | immigration, DREAMers, legalization, undocumented |
| JEL: | D7 F22 H52 H75 J61 I22 I24 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11281&r=lab |
| By: | J. Ignacio García-Pérez (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Bruno Contini (Università di Torino & Collegio C. Alberto); Toralf Pusch (Hans Böckler Stiftung, Düsseldorf); Roberto Quaranta (Collegio C. Alberto) |
| Abstract: | This study proposes a new approach to the analysis of non-employment and its duration in Germany, Italy and Spain using administrative longitudinal databases. Non-employment includes the discouraged unemployed not entitled to draw unemployment benefits and the long-term inactive. Many of the non-employed individuals will never return to the official labour market. We estimate the magnitude and duration of non-employment, applying the survival methodology developed in recent years to deal with ‘workforce disposal’. Long-term non-employment (LTNE) may lead to dramatic changes in individual lifestyles, family and childbearing projects, levels of poverty and welfare at large. |
| Keywords: | labor economics, inactivity, long-term unemployment, turnover. |
| JEL: | D1 J0 J1 J6 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:18.01&r=lab |
| By: | James Feigenbaum; Alexander Hertel-Fernandez; Vanessa Williamson |
| Abstract: | Labor unions play a central role in the Democratic party coalition, providing candidates with voters, volunteers, and contributions, as well as lobbying policymakers. Has the sustained decline of organized labor hurt Democrats in elections and shifted public policy? We use the enactment of right-to-work laws—which weaken unions by removing agency shop protections—to estimate the effect of unions on politics from 1980 to 2016. Comparing counties on either side of a state and right-to-work border to causally identify the effects of the state laws, we find that right-to-work laws reduce Democratic Presidential vote shares by 3.5 percentage points. We find similar effects in US Senate, US House, and Gubernatorial races, as well as on state legislative control. Turnout is also 2 to 3 percentage points lower in right-to-work counties after those laws pass. We next explore the mechanisms behind these effects, finding that right-to-work laws dampen organized labor campaign contributions to Democrats and that potential Democratic voters are less likely to be contacted to vote in right-to-work states. The weakening of unions also has large downstream effects both on who runs for office and on state legislative policy. Fewer working class candidates serve in state legislatures and Congress, and state policy moves in a more conservative direction following the passage of right-to-work laws. |
| JEL: | D7 J5 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24259&r=lab |
| By: | Ewan McGaughey; Centre for Business Research |
| Abstract: | Will the internet, robotics and artificial intelligence mean a 'jobless future'? A recent narrative says tomorrow's technology will fundamentally differ from cotton mills, steam engines, or washing machines. Automation will be less like post-WW2 demobilisation for soldiers, and more like the car for horses. Driverless vehicles will oust truckers and taxi drivers. Hyper-intelligent clouds will oust financial advisers, doctors, and journalists. We face more 'natural' or 'technological' unemployment than ever. Government, it is said, must enact a basic income, because so many jobs will vanish. Also, maybe robots should become 'electronic persons', the subjects of rights and duties, so they can be taxed. This narrative is endorsed by prominent tech-billionaires, but it is flawed. Everything depends on social policy. Instead of mass unemployment and a basic income, the law can achieve full employment and fair incomes. This article explains three views of the causes of unemployment: as 'natural', as stemming from irrationality or technology, or as caused by laws that let people restrict the supply of capital to the job market. Only the third view has any credible evidence to support it. After WW2, 42% of UK jobs were redundant (actually, not hypothetically) but social policy maintained full employment, and it can be done again. Unemployment is driven by inequality of wealth and of votes in the economy. Democratic governments should reprogramme the law: for full employment and universal fair incomes. The owners of the robots will not automate your job away, if we defend economic democracy. |
| Keywords: | Robots, automation, inequality, democracy, unemployment, basic income, NAIRU, sheep, Luddites, washing machines, flying skateboards |
| JEL: | E62 E6 E52 E51 E50 E32 E12 E00 E02 D6 J01 K1 J20 K31 J23 J32 K22 J41 J51 J58 J6 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp496&r=lab |
| By: | Jauer, Julia; Liebig, Thomas; Martin, John P.; Puhani, Patrick A. |
| Abstract: | We estimate whether migration can be an equilibrating force in the labour market by comparing pre- and post-crisis migration movements at the regional level in both Europe and the United States, and their association with asymmetric labour market shocks. Based on fixedeffects regressions using regional panel data, we find that Europe’s migratory response to unemployment shocks was almost identical to that recorded in the United States after the crisis. Our estimates suggest that, if all measured population changes in Europe were due to migration for employment purposes – i.e. an upper-bound estimate – up to about a quarter of the asymmetric labour market shock would be absorbed by migration within a year. However, in Europe and especially in the Eurozone, the reaction to a very large extent stems from migration of recent EU accession country citizens as well as of third-country nationals. |
| Keywords: | Free mobility; migration; economic crisis; labour market adjustment; Eurozone; Europe; United States |
| JEL: | F15 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2018:02&r=lab |
| By: | KANG, Byeongwoo; RANNIKKO, Heikki; TORNIKOSKI, Erno T. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how to support employees to become entrepreneurs. Using original survey data by Nokia, we show two main findings. First, some contents of entrepreneurship were effective commonly to employees with an R&D background and to those with a non-R&D background while other contents were effective to either employees with an R&D background or those with a non-R&D background. The former contents are general knowledge on management, and the later contents are further development of their own specialties. Second, providing a such program to employees had merits to the program provider. Our findings have implications for how a firm to design entrepreneurial programs for employees and to form a business ecosystem around it. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneur education, Layoffs, Nokia, Spinoff |
| JEL: | J63 L26 M13 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:iirwps:17-15&r=lab |