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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Cahuc, Pierre; Carcillo, St�phane; Le Barbanchon, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effectiveness of hiring credits. Using comprehensive administrative data, we show that the French hiring credit, implemented during the Great Recession, had significant positive employment effects and no effects on wages. Relying on the quasi-experimental variation in labor cost triggered by the hiring credit, we estimate a structural search and matching model. Simulations of counterfactual policies show that the effectiveness of the hiring credit relied to a large extent on three features: it was non-anticipated, temporary and targeted at jobs with rigid wages. We estimate that the cost per job created by permanent hiring credits, either countercyclical or time-invariant, in an environment with flexible wages would have been much higher. |
| Keywords: | Hiring credit; labor demand; search and matching model |
| JEL: | C31 C93 J6 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12537&r=lab |
| By: | Bell, Alex; Chetty, Raj; Jaravel, Xavier; Petkova, Neviana; Van Reenen, John |
| Abstract: | We characterize the factors that determine who becomes an inventor in America by using de-identified data on 1.2 million inventors from patent records linked to tax records. We establish three sets of results. First, children from high-income (top 1%) families are ten times as likely to become inventors as those from below-median income families. There are similarly large gaps by race and gender. Differences in innate ability, as measured by test scores in early childhood, explain relatively little of these gaps. Second, exposure to innovation during childhood has significant causal effects on children's propensities to become inventors. Growing up in a neighborhood or family with a high innovation rate in a specific technology class leads to a higher probability of patenting in exactly the same technology class. These exposure effects are gender-specific: girls are more likely to become inventors in a particular technology class if they grow up in an area with more female inventors in that technology class. Third, the financial returns to inventions are extremely skewed and highly correlated with their scientific impact, as measured by citations. Consistent with the importance of exposure effects and contrary to standard models of career selection, women and disadvantaged youth are as under-represented among high-impact inventors as they are among inventors as a whole. We develop a simple model of inventors' careers that matches these empirical results. The model implies that increasing exposure to innovation in childhood may have larger impacts on innovation than increasing the financial incentives to innovate, for instance by reducing tax rates. In particular, there are many "lost Einsteins" - individuals who would have had highly impactful inventions had they been exposed to innovation. |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12544&r=lab |
| By: | Amior, Michael; Manning, Alan |
| Abstract: | Differences in employment-population ratios across US commut- ing zones have persisted for many decades. We claim these dispar- ities represent real gaps in economic opportunity for individuals of fxed characteristics. These gaps persist despite a strong migratory response, and we attribute this to high persistence in labor demand shocks. These trends generate a \race" between local employment and population: population always lags behind employment, yield- ing persistent deviations in employment rates. Methodologically, we argue the employment rate can serve as a sufficient statistic for local well-being; and we model population and employment dy- namics using an error correction mechanism, which explicitly al- lows for disequilibrium |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J61 J64 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86558&r=lab |
| By: | Gobbi, Paula |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a semi-cooperative marital decision process to explain parental underinvestment in childcare. First, parents collectively choose the amount of labor to supply and, in a second step, they each choose the amount of childcare as the outcome of a Cournot game. Non-cooperative behavior stems from the lack of a credible commitment between spouses regarding the amount of childcare they each supply. The theoretical model is able to reproduce that parental time with children increases both with an individual's education and with that of his/her partner. The limited commitment problem leads to an underinvestment in childcare and, hence, child quality: compared to the efficient provision of childcare, the semi-cooperative framework leads to an amount of child quality that is 45% lower. |
| Keywords: | time use; childcare; education; Semi-Cooperative Model; structural estimation |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J16 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12550&r=lab |
| By: | Jimeno, Juan F; Martínez-Matute, Marta; Mora, Juan |
| Abstract: | Labor courts may influence firing costs. Apart from the procedural costs, there is the likelihood that labor courts declare firings as unfair or nil, which significantly increase severance payments over those established for fair dismissals by Employment Protection Legislation. In this paper we model the determinants of the wedge between mandated and effective firing costs arising from labor courts resolution of dismissals, and show how it is affected by EPL reforms, looking at recent EPL reforms in Spain (implemented in 2010 and 2012) that significantly widened the definition of fair economic dismissals. |
| Keywords: | Employment protection legislation; firing costs; Unemployment |
| JEL: | J52 J53 K31 K41 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12554&r=lab |
| By: | Wen, Le (University of Auckland); Maani, Sholeh A. (University of Auckland) |
| Abstract: | The recent literature on overeducation has provided divergent results on whether or not overeducation bears an earnings penalty. In addition, few studies have considered overeducation among immigrants. This paper uses panel data analyses to investigate the match between education and occupation and resulting earnings effects for immigrants from English Speaking, and Non-English Speaking, Backgrounds relative to the native-born population in Australia. Based on nine years of longitudinal data, the panel approach addresses individual heterogeneity effects (motivation, ability, and compensating differentials) that are crucial in overeducation analysis. First, we find that immigrants have significantly higher incidence rates of overeducation than the native-born. This probability increases, rather than diminishes, once we control for unobserved correlated effects. Second, based on panel fixed effects analyses there is no penalty for overeducation for ESB immigrants. However, NESB immigrants receive a lower return to required and overeducation compared to the other groups after controlling for individual heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | over-education, educational mismatch, immigrants, non-English-speaking, panel data, wage effects |
| JEL: | J24 J15 J31 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11216&r=lab |
| By: | Gregor Jarosch; Laura Pilossoph |
| Abstract: | This paper models a frictional labor market where employers endogenously discriminate against the long term unemployed. The estimated model replicates recent experimental evidence which documents that interview invitations for observationally equivalent workers fall sharply as unemployment duration progresses. We use the model to quantitatively assess the consequences of such employer behavior for job finding rates and long term unemployment and find only modest effects given the large decline in callbacks. Interviews lost to duration impact individual job-finding rates solely if they would have led to jobs. We show that such instances are rare when firms discriminate in anticipation of an ultimately unsuccessful application. Discrimination in callbacks is thus largely a response to dynamic selection, with limited consequences for structural duration dependence and long term unemployment. |
| JEL: | E24 J64 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24200&r=lab |
| By: | Facchini, Giovanni; Liu, Maggie Y.; Mayda, Anna Maria; Zhou, Minghai |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of China's integration into the world economy on workers in the country and show that one important channel of impact has been internal migration. Specifically, we study the changes in internal migration rates triggered by the reduction in trade policy uncertainty faced by Chinese exporters in the U.S. This reduction is characterized by plausibly exogenous variation across sectors, which we use to construct a local measure of treatment, at the level of a Chinese prefecture, following Bartik (1991). This allows us to estimate a difference-in-difference empirical specification based on variation across Chinese prefectures before and after 2001. We find that prefectures facing the average decline in trade policy uncertainty experience an 18 percent increase in their internal in-migration rate -- this result is driven by migrants who are ``non-hukou", skilled, and in their prime working age. Finally, in those prefectures, working hours of ``native'' unskilled workers significantly increase -- while the employment rates of neither native workers nor internal migrants change. |
| Keywords: | Hukou; Immigration; internal migration; Trade policy uncertainty |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12578&r=lab |
| By: | Brown, Ryan (University of Colorado Denver); Mansour, Hani (University of Colorado Denver); O'Connell, Stephen D. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Gender gaps in leadership roles may be reduced by increasing the number of women in career stages that typically precede high-status positions. This can occur by increasing the supply of experienced women, inspiring new female candidates for these positions, and/or changing beliefs about women as leaders. In this study, we investigate whether and how adding women to a career pipeline can reduce gender gaps in higher-ranking positions over time. Specifically, we examine the effects of women's local electoral success on subsequent female candidacy at higher levels of government in India from 1977 to 2014. We use close elections won by women contesting state legislature seats to identify the effect of pipeline expansion on later candidacy for the national parliament. The results indicate that for each additional lower-level seat won by a woman, there is a 30 percent increase in the number of female candidates in subsequent national legislature elections. This effect is driven by new candidates and not by career politicians, and women receive a disproportionately favorable increase in the vote share. These effects are strongest in areas with low levels of existing female political participation and empowerment. The findings are consistent with a mechanism in which exposure reduces bias, allowing for updated beliefs about the viability of latent candidates who then run for higher office. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, political candidacy, female politicians, India |
| JEL: | J16 J71 P16 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11263&r=lab |
| By: | Will Dobbie; Hans Grönqvist; Susan Niknami; Mårten Palme; Mikael Priks |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of parental incarceration on children’s medium-run outcomes using administrative data from Sweden. Our empirical strategy exploits exogenous variation in parental incarceration from the random assignment of criminal defendants to judges with different incarceration tendencies. We find that the incarceration of a parent in childhood leads to significant increases in teen crime and pregnancy and a significant decrease in early-life employment. The effects are concentrated among children from the most disadvantaged families, where teen crime increases by 18 percentage points, teen pregnancy increases by 8 percentage points, and employment at age 20 decreases by 28 percentage points. In contrast, there are no detectable effects among children from more advantaged families. These results imply that the incarceration of parents with young children may increase the intergenerational persistence of poverty and criminal behavior, even in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets. |
| JEL: | J13 J24 J62 K14 K42 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24186&r=lab |
| By: | Frank T. Denton; Byron G. Spencer |
| Abstract: | A shift in population distribution toward older ages is underway in industrialised countries throughout the world and will continue well into the future. We provide a framework for isolating the pure effects of population aging on per capita GDP, employ the framework in calculations for the ten provinces of Canada, and derive the rates of productivity growth required to offset those effects. For comparison, as possible alternative offsets, we consider also some changes relating to the supply of labour. |
| JEL: | J1 J11 O4 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2018-04&r=lab |
| By: | Enflo, Kerstin; Karlsson, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Institutions for prevention and resolution of labor market conflicts were introduced all over the world in the early twentieth century. In this paper we analyze the impact of mediation on compromise outcomes in Swedish labor market conflicts, using a dataset of geo-coded strikes and lockouts from 1907 to 1927. Causality is identified by using the distance from the mediator's residence to the conflict as an instrument. Despite their limited authority and access to economic resources, the presence of mediators in a conflict resulted in about 30 per cent higher probability of a compromise outcome. Mediation was more likely to work as intended in settings where conflicting parties recognized each other and struggled over a prize that could be divided. The results suggest that mediation could have paved the way for a cooperative atmosphere in local labor markets. At the national level such an atmosphere was clearly manifested in the General Agreement in 1938 and with the rise of the Swedish Model. |
| Keywords: | industrial relations; labour market institutions; mediation; strikes |
| JEL: | J52 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12586&r=lab |
| By: | Yaqin Su (Hunan University); Petros Tesfazion (Central College); Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of rural migrants in cities, this paper investigates where the migrants in urban China come from, paying close attention to intra-provincial vs. inter-provincial migrants, and examining the differences in their personal attributes. We find that migrants who have come within the province differ significantly from those who have come from outside of the province. Using a nested logit model, we find that overall, higher wage differentials, larger population size, higher GDP per capita, and faster employment growth rate are the attributes of a city that attract migrants from both within and outside province. In addition, moving beyond one’s home province has a strong deterrent effect on migration, analogous to the “border effect” identified in international migration studies. We also explore the role of culture, institutional barrier, and dialect in explaining such a pronounced “border effect”. |
| Keywords: | rural-urban migration, China, border effect, inter- vs. intra-provincial migration |
| JEL: | J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2018-003&r=lab |
| By: | Wadood, Syed Naimul; Tehsum, Mostofa |
| Abstract: | Dhaka, capital city of Bangladesh, is one of the fastest growing cities of the world in terms of population concentration. Centrally located, it attracts a large number of job seeking migrants from the rural areas of entire Bangladesh on a continuous basis. Some of these job seeking migrants are readily absorbed in the urban informal service sector, which includes cycle rickshaw pulling. Cycle rickshaw pulling is arduous and stressful, with no promotion prospect or insurance for occupational hazards such as accident injuries, while entry is easy as education and training as well as capital asset requirement is minimal. In order to examine vulnerabilities of the rickshaw pullers, a structured questionnaire survey has been conducted on a total of 120 randomly selected cycle rickshaw pullers in five locations across the Dhaka city. The primary survey has examined their current living conditions, livelihood strategies, shocks and insurances against shocks. The respondents lacked education and skill training, did not own capital assets and mostly supported their families stationed in the rural areas with earnings from this cycle rickshaw pulling. Econometric models of OLS and probit regression have been utilized to examine a number of issues, and the results are expected. Most respondents were willing to educate their children and did not want to include them in this sector. There are potentials of entrepreneurship if they are skill trained, financed and advised properly. They are reported to be willing to improve their living conditions, which is difficult due to the vulnerabilities that they face. |
| Keywords: | Cycle Rickshaw Pullers, Vulnerabilities, Migration, Urban Informal Sector, Sustainable Livelihood, Dhaka |
| JEL: | I31 J81 O17 |
| Date: | 2018–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83959&r=lab |
| By: | Xie, Bin (Jinan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the exogenous and differential immigrant supply shocks caused by the immigration quota system in the 1920s to identify the causal effects of the immigration restriction on the US manufacturing wages, the Great Migration, and industrial production between 1920 and 1930. I find that the immigration restriction significantly increased manufacturing wages and encouraged the southern black population to migrate to the North. I also find that the decline in the immigrant supply constrained the growth of the scale of manufacturing production and discouraged technology adoption of electrification. |
| Keywords: | immigration restriction, Great Black Migration, industrial development |
| JEL: | J61 N32 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11214&r=lab |
| By: | Adnan, Wifag (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Miaari, Sami H. (Tel Aviv University) |
| Abstract: | Striving for gender equality presents major challenges but the benefits are vast, ranging from reduced conflict, both within and between communities, to higher economic growth. Unfortunately, Israel's gender wage gap remains one of the highest among developed countries, despite a growing reverse gender gap in educational attainment. Investigating the gender wage gap for the Jewish majority and for the Arab minority, we find evidence of gender segregation by industry and occupations in addition to a glass ceiling effect for Jewish and Arab women. Using data from the Israeli Household Income Survey and electoral data from the Israeli parliamentary elections (2009), this paper provides novel evidence of the role of voter preferences in explaining the persistence of gender pay gaps. Importantly, we find strong evidence of an association between a higher share of votes allocated to nationalist parties, in a given locality, and a larger, (adjusted), gender wage gap for both Jewish-Israelis and Arab-Israelis. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, voting behavior, glass ceiling, glass door, social attitudes, discrimination |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J61 J45 C14 C24 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11261&r=lab |