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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The effect of foreign labor on native employment within an occupation depends on native labor supply to that occupation – which is rarely directly measured – even if native and foreign labor are perfect substitutes in production. This paper uses two natural quasiexperiments to directly compare foreign to native labor supply in manual farm work. The first quasi-experiment is a legal requirement for employers to demand native labor with infinite elasticity at the wage earned by migrants; the second is a large exogenous shock to native workers' reserve option. Together these offer what is essentially a natural audit study in which tens of thousands of 'immigrant jobs' were offered to native workers with a range of exogenously varying terms. It uses novel data on the universe of domestic applicants to tens of thousands of farm jobs in the state of North Carolina over a 15 year period. The wage elasticity of unemployed domestic workers' relative labor supply is 0.0015. This implies that the effect of migrant labor supply on native employment is close to zero within this occupation, and may be positive outside it. Job-specific estimates of this kind are useful alongside more generalized evaluations of immigration because immigration policy often regulates access to specific occupations. |
| Keywords: | immigrant, immigration, displacement, visa, labor-market, employment, wage, farm, agriculture, natural experiment, United States, Mexico |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10492&r=lab |
| By: | Edward P. Lazear; Kristin McCue |
| Abstract: | Hiring is positively correlated with separation, both across firms and over time. A theory of hiring and separation based on shifts in demand implies the opposite. One firm or industry hires and grows when another fires and contracts. But hiring for expansion and layoff for contraction comprises the minority of hiring and separation. A more accurate view is that hiring and separation reflect churn and are balanced in equilibrium, where one is the mirror image of the other. Hiring occurs primarily to fill vacant slots that open up when a firm separates a worker. Equivalently, a separation results when a worker is hired away by another firm. A model of efficient mobility yields several specific predictions in addition to the positive correlation between hires and separations. Labor market churn is most likely in firms and industries with low mean wages and high wage variance. Additionally, churn decreases during recessions with hires falling first followed by a decline in separations to match hiring. Finally, the young are predicted to bear the brunt of hiring declines. These predictions are borne out in the LEHD microdata at the economy and firm levels. |
| JEL: | E24 J01 M0 M00 M5 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23059&r=lab |
| By: | Barigozzi, Francesca (University of Bologna); Cremer, Helmuth (Toulouse School of Economics); Roeder, Kerstin (University of Augsburg) |
| Abstract: | Our model explains the observed gender-specific patterns of career and child care choices through endogenous social norms. We study how these norms interact with the gender wage gap. We show that via the social norm a couple's child care and career choices impose an externality on other couples, so that the laissez-faire is inefficient. We use our model to study the design and effectiveness of three commonly used policies. We find that child care subsidies and women quotas can be effective tools to mitigate or eliminate the externality. Parental leave, however, may even intensify the externality and decrease welfare. |
| Keywords: | social norms, child care, women's career choices, women quotas, child care subsidies, parental leave |
| JEL: | D13 H23 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10502&r=lab |
| By: | Gehrsitz, Markus (University of Strathclyde); Ungerer, Martin (ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | Millions of refugees made their way to Europe between 2014 and 2015, with over one million arriving in Germany alone. Yet, little is known about the impact of this inflow on labor markets, crime, and voting behavior. This article uses administrative data on refugee allocation and provides an evaluation of the short-run consequences of the refugee inflow. Our identification strategy exploits that a scramble for accommodation determined the assignment of refugees to German counties resulting in exogeneous variations in the number of refugees per county within and across states. Our estimates suggest that migrants have not displaced native workers but have themselves struggled to find gainful employment. We find very small increases in crime in particular with respect to drug offenses and fare-dodging. Our analysis further suggests that counties which experience a larger influx see neither more nor less support for the main anti-immigrant party than counties which experience small migrant inflows. |
| Keywords: | immigration, refugees, unemployment, crime, voting |
| JEL: | J6 J15 K4 D72 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10494&r=lab |
| By: | Milena Nikolova; Sinem Ayhan |
| Abstract: | This study is the first to provide a causal estimate of the subjective well-being effects of spousal unemployment at the couple level. Using German panel data on married and cohabiting partners for 1991-2013 and information on exogenous job termination induced by workplace closure, we show that spousal unemployment reduces the life satisfaction of indirectly-affected spouses. The impact is equally pronounced among female and male partners. Importantly, the results are not driven by an income effect, but likely reflect the psychological costs of unemployment. Our findings are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks and imply that public policy programs aimed at mitigating the negative consequences of unemployment need to consider within-couple spillovers. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, involuntary job loss, plant closure, spouses, well-being |
| JEL: | I31 J01 J65 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp891&r=lab |
| By: | Maya Rossin-Slater |
| Abstract: | Maternity and family leave policies enable mothers to take time off work to prepare for and recover from childbirth and to care for their new children. While there is substantial variation in the details of these policies around the world, the existing research yields the following general conclusions. First, despite important barriers to the take-up of leave, both the implementation of new programs and extensions of existing ones increase leave-taking rates among new parents. Second, leave entitlements less than one year in length can improve job continuity for women and increase their employment rates several years after childbirth; longer leaves can negatively influence women's earnings, employment, and career advancement. Third, extensions in existing paid leave policies have no impact on measures of child well-being, but the introduction of short paid and unpaid leave programs can improve children's short- and long-term outcomes. Fourth, while more research is needed, the current evidence shows minimal impacts of existing U.S. state-level programs on employer-level outcomes such as employee productivity, morale, profitability, turnover rates, or the total wage bill. |
| JEL: | H4 J08 J13 J16 J78 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23069&r=lab |
| By: | Li Tan (Department of Economics at the University of Missouri); Cory Koedel (Department of Economics and Truman School of Public Affairs, at the University of Missouri); |
| Abstract: | We forecast lifetime earnings of young workers to study the redistributive effects of Social Security, prospectively. Using data from an older generation of workers, we first establish that our forecasting method can recover the actual distribution of Average Indexed Monthly Earnings taken from Social Security Administration records. We then extend the method to forecast Social Security returns for recent cohorts and examine redistributive trends. Our methods and data are accessible, facilitating straightforward replications and extensions. Focusing on redistributions across race and education groups, and on men’s own benefits, we show that Social Security exhibits little progressivity, and little progressivity improvement, for recent cohorts. |
| Keywords: | Earnings forecast, Bayesian forecasting, Social Security, Social Security progressivity, Social Security projections |
| JEL: | H55 J18 J32 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:1701&r=lab |
| By: | Coral del Río (Universidade de Vigo); Olga Alonso-Villar (Universidade de Vigo) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how important the occupational sorting of individuals in same-sex couples is in explaining the economic position of lesbians and gays beyond controlling for occupation in the estimation of their respective wage gaps. The analysis reveals that the distribution of partnered gay men across occupations brings them a remarkable positive earning gap (11\% of the average wage of partnered workers), whereas the occupational sorting of partnered lesbian women only allows them to depart from the large losses that straight partnered women have since their earning gap, although positive, is close to zero. The results show that if gay men had the same educational achievements, immigration profile, racial composition, and age structure as straight partnered men have, the advantages of this group associated with their occupational sorting would disappear completely. Likewise, if lesbian women had the same characteristics, other than sex and gender orientation, as straight partnered men have, the small advantage that these women derive from their occupational sorting would not only vanish but would turn into disadvantages, leaving them with a loss with respect to the average wage of coupled workers similar to the one straight partnered women have after their corresponding homogenization. It is their higher educational attainments and, to a lower extent, their lower immigration profile, that prevents workers living in same-sex couples from having a disadvantaged occupational sorting, since neither do gay men seem to enjoy the privilege of being partnered men nor do lesbian women appear to be free from the mark of gender. |
| Keywords: | Sexual orientation, gender, occupational segregation, wages, well-being. |
| JEL: | D63 I31 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2016-425&r=lab |
| By: | USHIJIMA Tatsuo |
| Abstract: | Corporate diversification benefits employees by decreasing unemployment risks associated with the financial distress and bankruptcy of their firms. However, its implications for wages are ambiguous. This paper examines the possibility that the effect of diversification on wages is contingent upon employee bargaining power based on Japanese data. I find that diversified firms pay higher (lower) wages than representative-focused firms in the same industries when their employees are unionized (nonunionized). This pattern is robust to alternative measures of employee power and the controls for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity. My results suggest that diversification is valuable for powerful organizational insiders even when it is not for shareholders. |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16103&r=lab |
| By: | Hiroshi Teruyama (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Hiroyuki Toda (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the persistence of regular and non-regular employment status in Japan for workers that change jobs. In particular, we investigate two hypotheses behind this persistence. The first is the dependence of the employment status in the current job on that in the previous job. The second is the dependence of the employment status in the current job on that in the initial job, which is called first job effects. While both types of dependence are empirically verified, the former is shown to be quantitatively more substantial. Therefore, the serially dependent structure of employment status matters critically to the segmentation of the labor market in Japan. |
| Keywords: | dual labor market, non-regular workers, state dependence, cohort effects, first job effects, Japanese labor market |
| JEL: | J42 J62 J70 C35 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:957&r=lab |
| By: | Sebastian Galiani; Matthew Staiger; Gustavo Torrens |
| Abstract: | During the 20th century there was a secular transformation within American families from a household dominated by the father to a more egalitarian one in which the wife and the children have been empowered. This transformation coincided with two major economic and demographic changes, namely the increase in economic opportunities for women and a decline in family size. To explain the connection between these trends and the transformation in family relationships we develop a novel model of parenting styles that highlights the importance of competition within the family. The key intuition is that the rise in relative earnings of wives increased competition between spouses for the love and affection of their children while the decline in family size reduced competition between children for resources from their parents. The combined effect has empowered children within the household and allowed them to capture an increasing share of the household surplus over the past hundred years. |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23087&r=lab |
| By: | Giannakopoulos, Nicholas; Laliotis, Ioannis |
| Abstract: | We investigate decentralized collective bargaining in Greece (2002-2016) under the industrial relations reform implemented in 2011. We match administrative data on firm-level contracts with non-participating firms to estimate determinants of decentralized bargaining before and after the reform. Decentralized bargaining increased in the post-reform period depending on firm size, industry and location. Nominal wage floors downgraded after 2011 in contacts signed by association of persons rather than trade unions. A base wage premium of 22 percent is found in favour of trade unions. Firm-level bargaining with trade unions is expected to promote decentralized bargaining with outcomes linked to firm-specific characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Labour relations; Decentralized collective bargaining; Nominal wages; Reform; Greece |
| JEL: | J31 J41 J52 |
| Date: | 2017–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:76513&r=lab |
| By: | Williams, Jenny (University of Melbourne); van Ours, Jan C. (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of early cannabis use on the school to work transition of young men. Our empirical approach accounts for common unobserved confounders that jointly affect selection into cannabis use and the transition from school to work using a multivariate mixed proportional hazard framework in which unobserved heterogeneities are drawn from a discrete mixing distribution. Extended models account for school leavers' option of returning to school rather than starting work as a competing risk. We find that early cannabis use leads young men to accept job offers more quickly and at a lower wage rate compared to otherwise similar males who did not use cannabis. These effects are present only for those who use cannabis for longer than a year before leaving school. Overall, our findings are consistent with a mechanism whereby early non-experimental cannabis use leads to greater impatience in initial labor market decision-making. |
| Keywords: | multivariate duration models, discrete factors, cannabis use, job search, wages |
| JEL: | C41 I12 J01 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10488&r=lab |
| By: | Fabio Berton (University of Torino); Sauro Mocetti (Bank of Italy); Andrea F. Presbitero (International Monetary Fund and MoFiR); Matteo Richiardi (Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford; Nuffield College, and Collegio Carlo Alberto) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the employment effects of financial shocks using a rich data set of job contracts, matched with the universe of firms and their lending banks in one Italian region. To isolate the effect of the financial shock we construct a firm-specific time-varying measure of credit supply. The contraction in credit supply explains one fourth of the reduction in employment. This result is concentrated in more levered and less productive firms. Also, the relatively less educated and less skilled workers with temporary contracts are the most affected. Our results are consistent with the cleansing role of financial shocks. |
| Keywords: | Bank lending channel; Job contracts; Employment; Financing constraints; Cleansing effect. |
| JEL: | G01 G21 J23 J63 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wmofir:136&r=lab |
| By: | Markus H. Böhme (OECD); Sarah Kups (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews existing theoretical and empirical evidence on the economic effects of immigration in developing countries. Specifically, it discusses how immigration may affect labour market, entrepreneurship, human capital, productivity, economic growth, the exchange rate, trade, prices, public finance and public goods in host countries. As the majority of the relevant literature has traditionally focused on the experience of high-income countries, the review highlights the unique context of developing countries and elaborates how outcomes may be similar or differ in low and middle-income countries. A general conclusion is that the economic effects of immigration to developing countries, a numerically important phenomenon, warrants additional theoretical and empirical research. Cet article analyse les preuves théoriques et empiriques existantes sur les effets économiques de l'immigration dans les pays en développement. Plus précisément, il explique comment, dans un pays d’accueil, l'immigration peut avoir un impact sur le marché du travail, l'esprit d'entreprise, le capital humain, la productivité, la croissance économique, les taux de change, le commerce, les prix, les finances publiques et les biens publics. Comme la majorité de la littérature pertinente a toujours été axée sur l'expérience des pays à revenu élevé ; cette fois-ci, l’examen met en avant le contexte privilégié des pays en développement et détaille de quelle manière les résultats peuvent être semblables ou différents dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire. En conclusion, les effets économiques de l'immigration sur les pays en développement, un phénomène important si l’on en croit les chiffres, nécessiterait d’effectuer des recherches théoriques et empiriques supplémentaires. |
| Keywords: | development, immigration |
| JEL: | J61 O1 |
| Date: | 2017–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaaa:335-en&r=lab |
| By: | Stewart Nixon (OECD); Hidekatsu Asada (OECD); Vincent Koen |
| Abstract: | Malaysia has followed a comparatively equitable development path, largely eliminating absolute poverty and greatly reduced ethnic inequality. Income and wealth inequality have gradually declined since the mid-1970s. With the “people economy” at the centre of Malaysia’s ambition to become a high-income country by 2020, the focus is shifting to the challenges of relative poverty and achieving sustainable improvements in individual and societal well-being through inclusive growth. This shift would be aided by reforms in several policy areas where Malaysia may compare favourably within its region but less so relative to OECD countries. This includes reforms to increase access to quality education, provide comprehensive social protection, raise the labour force participation of women and older persons, maintain universal access to quality public healthcare, improve pension system sustainability and adequacy and move towards a tax and transfer system that does more for inclusiveness. Promouvoir une croissance inclusive en Malaisie La Malaisie a suivi une trajectoire de développement comparativement équitable, éliminant largement la pauvreté absolue et réduisant considérablement l’inégalité ethnique. Les inégalités de revenu et de patrimoine ont diminué graduellement depuis le milieu des années 70. « L’ économie du peuple » étant au coeur de l’ambition de la Malaisie de devenir un pays à revenu élevé d’ici 2020, les efforts portent de plus en plus sur le défi de la pauvreté relative et sur la réalisation de progrès durables en matière de bien-être individuel et sociétal grâce à une croissance inclusive. Cette transition serait favorisée par des réformes dans plusieurs domaines où la Malaisie se compare favorablement par rapport aux pays de la région mais moins bien par rapport aux pays de l’OCDE. Cela inclut des réformes pour un meilleur accès à une éducation de qualité, une protection sociale plus complète, une participation plus grande des femmes et des personnes plus âgées au marché du travail, un accès universel à des soins de santé de qualité, ainsi que pour améliorer la viabilité et l’adéquation du système de retraite et aller vers un système de taxation et de transferts plus inclusif. |
| Keywords: | healthcare, inclusive growth, inequality, labour market, participation, pensions, regional development, social protection, tax, transfer |
| JEL: | E20 H20 H50 I0 J0 P48 |
| Date: | 2017–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1371-en&r=lab |
| By: | Marco Di Cataldo; AndrŽs Rodr’guez-Pose |
| Abstract: | The European Union promotes development strategies aimed at producing growth with Òa strong emphasis on job creation and poverty reductionÓ. However, whether the economic conditions in place in EU regions are ideal for the generation of high- and low-skilled employment and labour market inclusion is unclear. This paper assesses how the key factors behind EU growth strategies Ð infrastructure, human capital, innovation, quality of government Ð condition employment generation and labour market exclusion in European regions. The findings indicate that the dynamics of employment and social exclusion vary depending on the conditions in place in a region. While higher innovation and education contribute to overall employment generation in some regional contexts, low-skilled employment grows the most in regions with a better quality of government. Regional public institutions, together with the endowment of human capital, emerge as the main factors for the reduction of labour market exclusion Ð particularly in the less developed regions Ð and the promotion of inclusive employment growth across Europe. Length: |
| Keywords: | social exclusion, employment, skills, regions, Europe |
| JEL: | R23 J64 O52 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1704&r=lab |
| By: | Hofmann, Barbara (University of Mannheim); Kreyenfeld, Michaela (Hertie School of Governance); Uhlendorff, Arne (CREST) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of job displacement on women's first birth rates, and the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We used mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an observation period spanning more than 20 years. We apply inverse probability weighting (IPW) to flexibly control for the observed differences between women who were and were not displaced. To account for the differences in the composition of the women who were displaced in a downturn and the women who were displaced in an upswing, a double weighting estimator was employed. We find that the extent to which job displacement had adverse effects on fertility depended on the business cycle. The first birth rates of the women who were displaced in an economic downturn were much lower than the first birth rates of the women who lost a job in an economic upturn. This result cannot be explained by changes in the observed characteristics of the displaced women over the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | fertility, job loss, mass layoffs, business cycle, unemployment |
| JEL: | J13 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10485&r=lab |
| By: | J. Ignacio García-Pérez (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Josep Mestres Domènech (CaixaBank Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the 2012 Spanish labour market reform on the probability of exiting and entering unemployment using a regression discontinuity approach based on duration models. The 2012 reform modified important aspects of hiring and dismissal procedures in Spain and, by doing that, affected the probability of exiting both unemployment and employment. Comparing labour market performance before and after February 2012 and using a competing risk duration model for the exit from both unemployment and employment, we find that the reform has helped employment creation in two ways. First, it has increased the likelihood of exiting from unemployment to employment by making the monthly transition to permanent employment to increase from 1.7% to 2.6%, on average, for the first six months in unemployment. Secondly, it has reduced the probability of dismissal for workers on a temporary contract around 11%, probably because firms used newly introduced internal flexibility measures in order to adjust the workforce, instead of using dismissals. The direct transition from temporary to permanent positions is also eased by the reform. Finally, we do not find any significant effect of the reform on the dismissal patterns for permanent workers. These findings point to a positive effect of the reform in dampening the widespread segmentation of the Spanish labour market, although the impact is so far small which means that more effort will be needed in order to substantially reduce the strong duality of this labour market. |
| Keywords: | labour reform, discontinuity design, unemployment hazard rate, employment hazard rate. |
| JEL: | J41 J64 C41 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:17.02&r=lab |