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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Ioana Marinescu; Roland Rathelot |
| Abstract: | Could we significantly reduce U.S. unemployment by helping job seekers move closer to jobs? Using data from the leading employment board CareerBuilder.com, we show that, indeed, workers dislike applying to distant jobs: job seekers are 35% less likely to apply to a job 10 miles away from their ZIP code of residence. However, because job seekers are close enough to vacancies on average, this distaste for distance is fairly inconsequential: our search and matching model predicts that relocating job seekers to minimize unemployment would decrease unemployment by only 5.3%. Geographic mismatch is thus a minor driver of aggregate unemployment. |
| JEL: | E24 J21 J61 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22672&r=lab |
| By: | Katharine G. Abraham; John C. Haltiwanger; Kristin Sandusky; James Spletzer |
| Abstract: | It is well known that the long-term unemployed fare worse in the labor market than the short-term unemployed, but less clear why this is so. One potential explanation is that the long-term unemployed are “bad apples” who had poorer prospects from the outset of their spells (heterogeneity). Another is that these bad outcomes are a consequence of their extended unemployment (state dependence). We use Current Population Survey data on unemployed individuals linked to wage records for the same people to distinguish between these explanations. The rich information on work histories provided by the wage records allows us to control for individual heterogeneity that could be affecting post-unemployment labor market outcomes. Even with these controls in place, we find that unemployment duration has a strongly negative effect on the likelihood of subsequent employment. This finding is inconsistent with the “bad apple” (heterogeneity) explanation for why the long-term unemployed fare worse than the short-term unemployed. We also find that longer unemployment durations are associated with lower subsequent earnings, though this is mainly attributable to the long-term unemployed having a lower likelihood of subsequent employment rather than to their having lower earnings once a job is found. |
| JEL: | E24 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22665&r=lab |
| By: | Boll, Christina; Rossen, Anja; Wolf, André |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates size and impact factors of the gender pay gap in Europe. It adds to the literature in three aspects. First, we update existing figures on the gender pay gaps in the EU based on the Structure of Earnings Survey 2010 (SES). Second, we enrich the literature by undertaking comprehensive country comparisons of the gap components based on an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. Overall, we analyze 21 EU countries plus Norway, which clearly exceeds the scope of existing microdata studies. Third, we examine the sources of the unexplained gap. We find that about one third of the gap can be traced back to the role of the explanatory factors included in our analysis. The sectoral segregation of genders is identified as the most important barrier to gender pay equality in European countries. In addition, the fact that part-time positions are more frequent among women notably contributes to the gap. We conclude that policies aiming at closing the gender pay gap should focus more on the sector level than on the aggregate economy. |
| Keywords: | Gender wage gap,Oaxaca/Blinder decomposition,Europe,Structure of Earnings Survey |
| JEL: | J31 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:176&r=lab |
| By: | Pirmin Fessler (Economic Analysis Division, Oesterreichische Nationalbank); Alyssa Schneebaum (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Preschool attendance is widely recognized as a key ingredient for later socioeconomic success, mothers' labor market participation, and leveling the playing field for children from disadvantaged backgrounds. However, the empirical evidence for these claims is still relatively scarce, particularly in Europe. Using data from the 2011 Austrian European Union Statistics of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), we contribute to this literature in all mentioned dimensions. In particular, we investigate the effect of preschool attendance on an individual's later educational attainment, the probability that they work full time and their hourly wages, the likelihood of the mother working when the child is 14 years old, and on the overall distribution of wages. We find strong and positive effects of preschool attendance on educational attainment, the probability of working full time, hourly wages, and the probability that the mother is in the labor market. Full time workers at the bottom and the top of the distribution tend to benefit less than those in the middle. Women in particular benefit more in terms of years of schooling and the probability of working full time. Other disadvantaged groups (second migration migrants; people with less educated parents) also often benefit more in terms of education and work. |
| Keywords: | returns to preschool/kindergarten, early childhood education, education, inequality |
| JEL: | I26 J62 I24 H52 I38 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp233&r=lab |
| By: | Bart Cockx (Ghent University, SHERPPA, UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), IZA and CESifo); Eva Van Belle (Ghent University, SHERPPA) |
| Abstract: | In Belgium school-leavers are entitled to unemployment benefits after a waiting period and eligible to intensified counselling and training in the Youth Work Plan (YWP) if a job is not found within three months. The length of the waiting period and eligibility to the YWP are sharply determined by two distinct age thresholds. These are exploited to estimate the impact of these policies on the transition rate to employment and on the quality of work. Both policies increase job finding only slightly and insignificantly. The accepted wage is unaffected, but the number of working days falls and, hence, also earnings. |
| Keywords: | youth unemployment, policy evaluation, regression discontinuity design, survival analysis, quality of employment |
| JEL: | J64 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2016–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2016019&r=lab |
| By: | Michl, Thomas (Department of Economics, Colgate University) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces two post-Keynesian hysteresis mechanisms into a standard textbook three-equation model. The mechanisms work through wage bargaining and price setting. Workers are assumed to change their wage aspirations when the actual wage differs from their target wage, and firms are assumed to change their mark-up norm when the actual profit share differs from their target share. These mechanisms do not themselves guarantee hysteresis. A pure inflation shock will create hysteresis even if expectations are anchored to the central bank's inflation target. After a demand shock, if inflation expectations are not anchored, these mechanisms generate persistence but not true hysteresis. But if expectations are partially (as they seem to be) or fully anchored, a demand shock will have a permanent effect on output, employment, and the real wage because in this case, the central bank is not obligated to reflate as aggressively in order to manage expectations. Hysteresis effects may explain the absence of disinflation and the fall in the wage share in the aftermath of Global Financial Crisis. |
| Keywords: | hysteresis, three-equation model, path dependence, inflation-expectations anchoring |
| JEL: | E11 E12 O42 |
| Date: | 2016–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgt:wpaper:2016-01&r=lab |
| By: | Alyssa Schneebaum (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Miriam Rehm (Department of Economics and Statistics, Federal Chamber of Labour Vienna (AK Wien)); Katharina Mader (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Katarina Hollan (European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the gap in wealth between male and female single households using 2010 Household Finance and Consumption Survey data for eight European countries. In the raw data, a large gap emerges at the upper end of the unconditional distribution. While OLS estimates show no difference in average net wealth levels, quantile regressions at the 95th percentile yield mixed evidence for the gender wealth gap in different specifications. Labour market characteristics and participation in asset and debt categories largely explain the differences between male and female single households. We show that the gender gap in net wealth is driven by gender gaps in gross wealth and its components, but is attenuated in four countries by gender gaps in (collateralized) debt. In the full specification, the unexplained gap in gross wealth amounts to 27% in Slovakia, 33% in France, 44% in Austria, 45% in Germany, and 48% in Greece. A robustness check using person-level pension wealth confirms the presence of a gender gap for the full population. |
| Keywords: | Gender, Wealth, Wealth Gap, Distribution |
| JEL: | D31 J16 E21 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp232&r=lab |
| By: | Joanna Lahey |
| Abstract: | Black women in current cohorts ages 50 to 72 years have lower employment than similar white women, despite having had higher employment when they were middle-aged and younger. Earlier cohorts of older black women also worked more than their white counterparts. Although it is not surprising that white women’s employment should catch up to that of black women given trends in increasing female labor force participation, it is surprising that it should surpass that of black women. This chapter discusses factors that contribute to this differential change over time. Changes in education, marital status, home-ownership, welfare, wealth, and cognition cannot explain this trend, whereas changes in occupation, industry, health, and gross motor functioning may explain some of the trend. |
| JEL: | J14 J15 J2 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22680&r=lab |
| By: | Mario Bossler (Institute for Employment Research; LASER); Alexander Mosthaf (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz); Thorsten Schank (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates if there is state dependence in the gender composition of managers in German establishments. We analyze whether the number of hired female managers (respectively the share of females within hired managers) depends on the past hiring decisions of an establishment. Using administrative data, we apply dynamic linear models and dynamic tobit models accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and the endogeneity of lagged dependent variables. We ?nd that an increase of female manager hires in present leads to more female hired managers in the future. Similarly, the number of male manager hires also exhibits state dependence. |
| Keywords: | female managers; gender discrimination; state dependence; dynamic panel data models |
| JEL: | C23 J16 J71 M12 |
| Date: | 2016–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:11618&r=lab |
| By: | Hayley Fisher (School of Economics, The University of Sydney); Anna Zhu (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how a reduction in the financial resources available to lone parents affects repartnering. We exploit an Australian natural experiment that reduced the financial resources available to a subset of separating parents. Using bi-weekly administrative data capturing separations occurring among low and middle income couples, we show that the policy reform significantly increased the repartnering hazard for affected separating mothers, especially those with low labour force attachment. Reconciliation with the woman’s prior partner drives this result. Complementary analysis of an annual panel survey demonstrates that repartnering impacts are also present over the five years post-separation and that the impact on repartnering hazards is increasing in the extent of financial loss and the urgency of the impact. Together, these results demonstrate that one way that lone mothers respond to a reduction in financial resources available at the time of relationship breakdown is by repartnering more quickly. |
| Keywords: | Repartnering, lone parents, welfare reform longitudinal analysis, NAPLAN, ATAR, VCE, Victoria, Australia" |
| JEL: | J12 J18 H53 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2016n29&r=lab |
| By: | Thor Berger; Carl Benedikt Frey |
| Abstract: | In tandem with the diffusion of computer technologies, labour markets across the OECD have undergone rapid structural transformation. In this paper, we examine i) the impact of technological change on labour market outcomes since the computer revolution of the 1980s, and ii) recent developments in digital technology – including machine learning and robotics – and their potential impacts on the future of work. While it is evident that the composition of the workforce has shifted dramatically over recent decades, in part as a result of technological change, the impacts of digitalisation on the future of jobs are far from certain. On the one hand, accumulating anecdotal evidence shows that the potential scope of automation has expanded beyond routine work, making technological change potentially increasingly labour-saving: according to recent estimates 47 percent of US jobs are susceptible to automation over the forthcoming decades. On the other hand, there is evidence suggesting that digital technologies have not created many new jobs to replace old ones: an upper bound estimate is that around 0.5 percent of the US workforce is employed in digital industries that emerged throughout the 2000s. Nevertheless, at first approximation, there is no evidence to suggest that the computer revolution so far has reduced overall demand for jobs as technologically stagnant sectors of the economy – including health care, government and personal services – continue to create vast employment opportunities. Looking forward, however, we argue that as the potential scope of automation is expanding, many sectors that have been technologically stagnant in the past are likely to become technologically progressive in the future. While we should expect a future surge in productivity as a result, the question of whether gains from increases in productivity will be widely shared depends on policy responses. Parallèlement à la diffusion des technologies numériques, les marchés du travail dans la zone OCDE ont subi une rapide transformation structurelle. Dans cet article, nous allons examiner i) l'impact des changements technologiques sur la performance du marché du travail depuis la révolution informatique des années 1980 et ii) les développements récents en matière de technologie numérique, y compris de l'apprentissage machine [machine learning] et de la robotique, ainsi que leurs impacts potentiels sur l'avenir du travail. Bien qu'il soit évident que la composition de la main-d'oeuvre a radicalement changé au cours des dernières décennies, en partie en raison de l'évolution technologique, les impacts de la numérisation sur l'avenir des emplois sont loin d'être certains. D'une part, il semblerait que la portée potentielle de l'automatisation s'est développée au-delà du travail de routine, rendant les changements technologiques potentiellement de plus en plus générateurs d'économies de main-d'oeuvre : au cours des prochaines décennies, selon des estimations récentes, 47 % des emplois américains pourront être automatisés. D'autre part, il existe des preuves suggérant que les technologies numériques n'ont pas créé beaucoup de nouveaux emplois pour remplacer les anciens et une estimation de la limite supérieure montre que la main-d'oeuvre des États-Unis n’est utilisée qu’à hauteur de 0,5 % dans les industries numériques qui ont émergé au cours des années 2000. Néanmoins, à ce jour, sur la base d’une première estimation, il n'y a aucune preuve que la révolution informatique ait réduit la demande globale pour les emplois dans les secteurs de l´économie qui sont technologiquement en stagnation, y compris dans les soins de santé, l’administration et les services aux personnes, qui continuent à engager du personnel et à créer de larges possibilités d'emploi. À l'avenir, cependant, nous estimons que la portée potentielle de l'automatisation est en pleine expansion, de nombreux secteurs qui ont été technologiquement stagnants par le passé sont susceptibles de progresser technologiquement à l'avenir. Par conséquent, nous devons nous attendre à une future hausse de la productivité. En revanche, la question de savoir si les gains provenant des augmentations de productivité seront amplement partagés dépend des réponses politiques. |
| Keywords: | digitalisation, future of work |
| JEL: | E24 J24 J62 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:193-en&r=lab |
| By: | Driouchi, Ahmed; Gamar, Alae |
| Abstract: | Abstract: With a high rate of unemployment in most Arab countries, this paper investigates the relationship between social and educational mobility. World Bank databases on income and unemployment rates are used for the assessment of both types of mobility. The attained results show that Arab countries are facing large discrepancies between education trends and income mobility. Eastern and Central European countries, with similar economic trends, show also similar patterns of mobility. While the literature review reports the pervasive nature of such phenomenon, Arab countries need adequate policies to overcome the likely negative impacts from the low economic and high education mobility. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Intergenerational income; intergenerational educational attainment; Arab countries; Eastern European economies |
| JEL: | I25 J62 |
| Date: | 2016–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73998&r=lab |
| By: | Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe; Zimmermann, Klaus |
| Abstract: | This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run development dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular stagnation. |
| Keywords: | secular stagnation, long-term development, income growth, demographic transition, Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, C54, E10, J11, J 13, J18, N30, O10, O40, |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:245158&r=lab |
| By: | Andreas Kappeler; Andrés Fuentes Hutfilter; Dorothee Schneider; Naomitsu Yashiro; Eun Jung Kim; Giovanni Maria Semeraro |
| Abstract: | Population ageing is setting in earlier in Germany than in most other OECD economies and will be marked. It could lead to a substantial decline in employment, weighing on GDP per capita, and will raise demand for health-related public services. Germany has already implemented far-reaching reforms to mitigate the implications of ageing for per capita income, well-being and the sustainability of public finances. Nonetheless, continued efforts are needed to help older workers to improve their work-life balance and adjust their working hours to their ability and desire to work. Moreover, stressful working conditions and unhealthy lifestyles contribute to poor self-reported health and reduce the ability and willingness to work at higher age. There is scope to promote life-long learning. As the generosity of the public pension system will diminish, the contribution of private pensions to ensure pension adequacy needs to be strengthened. Promouvoir le bien-être dans une société vieillissante en Allemagne Le vieillissement démographique sera marqué en Allemagne, où il s’est amorcé plus tôt que dans la plupart des autres économies de l’OCDE. Il pourrait conduire à un recul important de l’emploi, ce qui pèserait sur le PIB par habitant, tout en augmentant la demande de services publics liés à la santé. L’Allemagne a déjà mis en oeuvre de vastes réformes destinées à limiter les incidences du vieillissement de sa population au regard du revenu par habitant, du bien-être et de la viabilité des finances publiques. Cependant, des efforts supplémentaires s’imposent pour aider les travailleurs âgés à améliorer l’équilibre entre vie professionnelle et vie privée et à adapter le nombre d’heures travaillées à leurs capacités et à leurs souhaits. De plus, des conditions de travail difficiles et des modes de vie préjudiciables à la santé contribuent à un mauvais état de santé autodéclaré et réduisent la capacité et la volonté de reporter le départ à la retraite. Il serait possible de développer la formation tout au long de la vie. Par ailleurs, dans la mesure où la générosité du système public de retraite ne pourra être maintenue, il convient d’accroître la contribution des régimes privés afin de garantir des niveaux de pension appropriés. |
| Keywords: | health, skills, demographic change, pension system |
| JEL: | E24 I31 J11 |
| Date: | 2016–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1327-en&r=lab |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Katherine Eriksson |
| Abstract: | We compile large datasets from Norwegian and US historical censuses to study return migration during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1913). Return migrants were somewhat negatively selected from the migrant pool: Norwegian immigrants who returned to Norway held slightly lower-paid occupations than Norwegian immigrants who stayed in the US, both before and after moving to the US. Upon returning to Norway, return migrants held higher-paid occupations than Norwegians who never moved, despite hailing from poorer backgrounds. They were also more likely to get married after return. These patterns suggest that despite being negatively selected, return migrants were able to accumulate savings and improve their economic circumstances once they returned home. |
| JEL: | J61 N31 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22659&r=lab |
| By: | Thomas Baudin (Université de Lille, Lille Economie Management, UMR 9221 and UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Robert Stelter (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and University of Rostock) |
| Abstract: | We propose a unified model of economic growth where people decide not only about fertility and education but also whether or not to migrate to the city or alternatively to the countryside. Using the simulated method of moments and an original set of Danish data, we calibrate our model to evaluate the relative contributions of the rural exodus and mortality reductions to economic growth and the fertility transition. We find, in line with Galor (2005), that the reduction of infant mortality has not been a major driver of the Danish economic takeoff while the rural exodus, complementing technological progress, has been a workhorse of the economic and demographic revolution of Denmark. |
| Keywords: | Demographic transition, Industrialization, Rural exodus, Mortality differentials, Fertility differentials |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O41 |
| Date: | 2016–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2016020&r=lab |
| By: | Bijedić, Teita; Chlosta, Simone; Werner, Arndt |
| Abstract: | Institutions of higher education are considered as an important source of innovation. Consequently, big efforts are made to facilitate technology transfer from academia into the market. However, technology transfer at German universities does not seem to live up to its full potential. We find for example that while 18,5% of our sample did in fact generate at least one invention, only 4,5% of the sample are engaged in commercialization activities. Therefore the vast majority of generated inventions remains unexploited. Based on this finding, we analyze how individual, career-related, and institutional factors affect the innovation and knowledge transfer activities of male and female academics. We show that Gender differences as well as career and human capital related factors (e.g. scope of employment, professional experience, and leadership position) affect such innovation transfer activities. While women generate fewer inventions than men, the fulltime employed researchers with a professional experience outside of academia and a leadership position lead to more inventions as well as partly higher exploitation activities. |
| Abstract: | Der Wissenstransfer und die Verwertung marktfähiger Erfindungen aus der Hochschulforschung stellt eine bedeutende Innovationsquelle dar, die wirtschftspolitisch breite Unterstützung erfährt. Doch trotz vielfältiger Bemühungen, diesen Prozess zu unterstützen, bleibt ein großer Teil der Innovationen an Hochschulen ungenutzt. Die vorgestellte Untersuchung hat zum Ziel, Determinanten (individuelle, berufsbezogene und Umfeldfaktoren) der Innovationstätigkeit aus der Sicht der an deutschen Hochschulen tätigen Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler zu untersuchen. Ergebnisse zeigen, dass an deutschen Hochschulen vor allem vollzeitbeschäftigte Wissenschaftler, die multidisziplinäre oder angewandte Forschung betreiben und daneben noch einer Selbstständigkeit nachgehen, besonders häufig Erfindungen generieren. Frauen bleiben dabei nicht nur insgesamt, sondern auch innerhalb der einzelnen Fächerverbünde hinter ihren männlichen Kollegen zurück. Liegen die Erfindungen erst einmal vor, lassen sich für ihre Kommerzialisierung keine Geschlechterunterschiede finden. In dieser Phase der Innovationstätigkeit sind marktbezogen Praxiserfahrungen ausschlaggebend. |
| Keywords: | academics,gender,innovation,inventions,commercial exploitation,institutional context |
| JEL: | O31 O34 J16 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifmwps:0416&r=lab |