nep-lab New Economics Papers
on Labour Economics
Issue of 2016‒04‒23
nineteen papers chosen by
Joseph Marchand
University of Alberta

  1. Labour market transitions in Italy: Job separation, re-employment and policy implications By Yosuke Jin; Ryotaro Fukahori; Hermes Morgavi
  2. The Simple Analytics of Job Displacement Insurance By Parsons, Donald O.
  3. Labor Market Institutions in the Gilded Age of American Economic History By Suresh Naidu; Noam Yuchtman
  4. Population Policy: Abortion and Modern Contraception are Substitutes - Working Paper 426 By Grant Miller and Christine Valente
  5. Childhood Housing and Adult Earnings: A Between-Siblings Analysis of Housing Vouchers and Public Housing By Fredrik Andersson; John C. Haltiwanger; Mark J. Kutzbach; Giordano Palloni; Henry O. Pollakowski; Daniel H. Weinberg
  6. Bargaining over Babies: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications By Matthias Doepke; Fabian Kindermann
  7. Great Recession and Disability in Spain By Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Arnau Juanmarti Mestres; Judit Vall-Castello
  8. Beyond Job Lock: Impacts of Public Health Insurance on Occupational and Industrial Mobility By Ammar Farooq; Adriana Kugler
  9. Global migration revisited : short-term pains, long-term gains, and the potential of south-south migration By Ahmed, S. Amer; Go,Delfin Sia; Willenbockel,Dirk Andreas
  10. The Impact of the National Minimum Wage on Industry-Level Wage Bargaining in France By Fougère, Denis; Gautier, Erwan; Roux, Sébastien
  11. Labor Market Reforms in Europe: Towards More Flexicure Labor Markets? By Eichhorst, Werner; Marx, Paul; Wehner, Caroline
  12. Family Size and the Demand for Sex Selection: Evidence From China By Samuel Marden
  13. Are Unemployment Rates in OECD Countries Stationary? Evidence from Univariate and Panel Unit Root Tests By Khraief, Naceur; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Heshmati, Almas; Azam, Muhammad
  14. Growing together: Towards a more inclusive Ireland By David Haugh; Yosuke Jin; Alberto González Pandiella
  15. Faculty Preferences over Unionization: Evidence from Open Letters at Two Research Universities By Joel Waldfogel
  16. Secondary School as a Contraceptive: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Burundi By Philip Verwimp
  17. Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination. By E. Monnet; C. Wolf
  18. Where Did It Go Wrong? Marriage and Divorce In Malawi By Laurens Cherchye; Bram De Rock; Selma Telalagic Walther; Frederic Vermeulen
  19. Do Bilateral Social Security Agreements Deliver on the Portability of Pensions and Health Care Benefits? A Summary Policy Paper on Four Migration Corridors Between EU and Non-EU Member States By Holzmann, Robert

  1. By: Yosuke Jin; Ryotaro Fukahori; Hermes Morgavi
    Abstract: Italy’s low employment rate is associated with adverse labour market dynamics characterised differently across different categories of people. Both job separation and re-employment have remained less frequent in Italy, especially among older workers, against the backdrop of rigid employment protection legislation which weighs down job creation, thus re-employment prospects. Working conditions after re-employment tend to worsen, especially for older workers, as seniority is not entirely portable across firms. Prospects on working conditions after re-employment deteriorate with longer unemployment spells, affecting incentives to return to work, especially where social benefits are too generous. Rigid employment protection for incumbent workers has also come at the cost of more frequent labour turnover for temporary workers who face an increasing risk of unemployment, including the more highly educated. The risk of hysteresis effects is significant in particular for those who separated from temporary jobs. The public employment service has to take account of individual cases, adopting intensive programmes such as training where necessary, while in general personalised job search assistance to get jobseekers back to work at early stages is recommended. Transitions du marché du travail en Italie : Cessation d'emploi, retour à l'emploi et implications politiques Le bas taux d’emploi en Italie est associé à des dynamiques adverses au marché du travail caractérisées d’une manière différente selon les catégories de travailleurs. La cessation d’emploi et le retour à l’emploi à la fois restent moins fréquents en Italie, surtout parmi les travailleurs âgés, dans le contexte de la rigidité de la législation sur la protection de l’emploi qui pèse sur la création d’emploi, et donc sur les perspectives de retour à l’emploi. Les conditions du travail après le retour à l’emploi ont tendance à se dégrader, surtout parmi les travailleurs âgés, car les compétences liées à l’ancienneté ne sont pas entièrement transférables entre firmes. Les perspectives sur les conditions de travail après le retour à l’emploi se dégradent avec un chômage de longue durée, qui affecte les incitations au retour à l’emploi, en particulier lorsque les prestations sociales sont très généreuses. La rigidité de la législation sur la protection de l’emploi pour les travailleurs protégés sous contrat à durée indéterminée s'effectue au prix de la rotation de l’emploi trop fréquente parmi les travailleurs sous contrat à durée déterminée qui rencontrent un risque croissant du chômage, y compris parmi ceux qui sont les plus instruits. Le risque d’effets d’hystérèse est significatif surtout parmi ceux qui ont cessé de travailler sous contrat à durée déterminée. Le service public d’emploi doit tenir compte de cas individuels, en adoptant des programmes intensifs tels que la formation professionnelle si nécessaire, tandis que l’assistance personnalisée à la recherche d’emploi dans les phases initiales est recommandée en règle générale.
    Keywords: labour market, working conditions, dualism, job separation, re-employment, cessation d’emploi, dualisme, conditions de travail, retour à l’emploi, marché du travail
    JEL: J21 J24 J63 J64
    Date: 2016–04–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1291-en&r=lab
  2. By: Parsons, Donald O. (George Washington University)
    Abstract: Job displacement in the U.S. is a serious threat to the earnings of long-tenured workers, through both (i) unemployment spells and (ii) reduced reemployment wages. Although full insurance requires both unemployment benefits and wage insurance, supply difficulties limit actual-loss insurance, and separation packages typically include partial unemployment insurance and scheduled (fixed sum) severance pay. The design of this two dimensional package requires a systems approach as well as a generalized replacement ratio measure of adequacy). Job search moral hazard and layoff moral hazard (firing costs), individually and in combination, introduce potentially serious contracting concerns. Economic theory provides a practical guide to the integration of these insurance instruments in this complex planning environment. One important implication: given the structure of earnings losses at displacement in the U.S., severance pay should increase with length of service in the firm ("tenure"), which is common, and unemployment insurance benefit levels should fall, which is not.
    Keywords: job displacement, unemployment insurance, wage insurance, severance pay, moral hazard, insurance adequacy, replacement rate
    JEL: J65 J41 J33 J08
    Date: 2016–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9823&r=lab
  3. By: Suresh Naidu; Noam Yuchtman
    Abstract: Although 19th century American labor markets were unencumbered by regulatory legislation, labor market institutions played an active role determining labor market outcomes and the distribution of income. We provide evidence of firm-specific rents in 19th century labor markets: employees in firms experiencing positive output price shocks earned significant wage premia, relative to very similar workers. Employees and employers bargained over rents in the labor contract, with workers striking to raise wages. We present data on strikes' frequency in the 19th century, and suggestive correlations between strikes and wages. The U.S. government supported employers in limiting strikes' efficacy. Strike-breaking actions included intervention by police and militia; employers often relied on less drastic, but still effective, judicial labor injunctions suppressing strikes. We document the rise of these injunctions, pointing to the important role played by the judicial branch in structuring (Northern) American labor market institutions prior to the rise of legislative regulation.
    JEL: N3 O10 P16
    Date: 2016–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22117&r=lab
  4. By: Grant Miller and Christine Valente
    Abstract: There is longstanding debate in population policy about the relationship between modern contraception and abortion. Although theory predicts that they should be substitutes, the existing body of empirical evidence is difficult to interpret. What is required is a large-scale intervention that alters the supply (or full price) of one or the other – and importantly, does so in isolation (reproductive health programs often bundle primary health care and family planning – and in some instances, abortion services). In this paper, we study Nepal’s 2004 legalization of abortion provision and subsequent expansion of abortion services, an unusual and rapidly-implemented policy meeting these requirements. Using four waves of rich individual-level data representative of fertile-age Nepalese women, we find robust evidence of substitution between modern contraception and abortion. This finding has important implications for public policy and foreign aid, suggesting that an effective strategy for reducing expensive and potentially unsafe abortions may be to expand the supply of modern contraceptives.
    Keywords: Abortion, Contraception, Nepal.
    JEL: J13 N35
    Date: 2016–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:426&r=lab
  5. By: Fredrik Andersson; John C. Haltiwanger; Mark J. Kutzbach; Giordano Palloni; Henry O. Pollakowski; Daniel H. Weinberg
    Abstract: To date, research on the long-term effects of childhood participation in voucher-assisted and public housing has been limited by the lack of appropriate data and suitable identification strategies. We create a new, national-level longitudinal data set on housing assistance and labor market earnings to explore how children’s housing affects their later earnings. While naïve estimates suggest there are substantial negative long-term consequences to childhood participation in voucher-assisted and public housing, these relationships appear to be driven largely by negative selection into housing assistance programs. To mitigate this source of bias, we employ household fixed-effects specifications that use only within-household (across-sibling) variation for identification. Compared to naïve specifications, household fixed-effects estimates are more positive for all demographic groups and, for some groups, positive and statistically significant. Black non-Hispanic females, in particular, benefit from time spent in both voucher-assisted and public housing. Exploiting the between sibling variation accounts for unobserved time-invariant family attributes that may influence outcomes but does not address time varying within household factors that may be at work. We use a number of strategies to address these issues and find our results are results are largely robust to these concerns.
    JEL: H43 I31 I38 J38 J62
    Date: 2016–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:13-48r&r=lab
  6. By: Matthias Doepke (Northwestern University); Fabian Kindermann (Universitat Bonn)
    Abstract: It takes a woman and a man to make a baby. This fact suggests that for a birth to take place, the parents should first agree on wanting a child. Using newly available data on fertility preferences and outcomes, we show that indeed, babies are likely to arrive only if both parents desire one, and there are many couples who disagree on having babies. We then build a bargaining model of fertility choice and match the model to data from a set of European countries with very low fertility rates. The distribution of the burden of child care between mothers and fathers turns out to be a key determinant of fertility. A policy that lowers the child care burden specifically on mothers can be more than twice as effective at increasing the fertility rate compared to a general child subsidy.
    Keywords: fertility, bargaining, child care
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2016–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2016-009&r=lab
  7. By: Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Arnau Juanmarti Mestres; Judit Vall-Castello
    Abstract: In this paper we evaluate the impact of the business cycle on participation in the Disability Insurance (DI) program in Spain in the context of the Great Recession, which has been particularly strong in this country. We follow two approaches. First, we use regional administrative data to estimate the effect of the regional unemployment rate on the number of applications, denials and allowances to the DI rolls. Second, we use longitudinal panel data to estimate the effect of the business cycle on transitions from different labor market states to the DI rolls. Our results show a pro-cyclical behavior of participation in DI during the years of the Great Recession. This is in contrast to the countercyclical response documented both for other countries as well as for Spain before 2008. We document some facts that partially explain why DI benefits have become pro instead of countercyclical during the Great Recession in Spain. Our results provide valuable evidence for policy-makers as they highlight that some of the disabled population may be left economically uncovered during the worst of times.
    Keywords: disability, great recession, labour market transitions
    JEL: I13 I38 J14
    Date: 2016–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:896&r=lab
  8. By: Ammar Farooq; Adriana Kugler
    Abstract: We examine whether greater Medicaid generosity encourages mobility towards riskier but better jobs in higher paid occupations and industries. We use Current Population Survey Data and exploit variation in Medicaid thresholds across states and over time through the 1990s and 2000s. We find that moving from a state in the 10th to the 90th percentile in terms of Medicaid income thresholds increases occupational and industrial mobility by 7.6% and 7.8%. We also find that higher income Medicaid thresholds increase mobility towards occupations and industries with greater wage spreads and higher separation probabilities, but with higher wages and higher educational requirements.
    JEL: I13 J6
    Date: 2016–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22118&r=lab
  9. By: Ahmed, S. Amer; Go,Delfin Sia; Willenbockel,Dirk Andreas
    Abstract: This paper re-examines the development implications of international migration focusing on two issues: how the costs and benefits of migration change over time, and the significance of South-South migration for development. First, the analysis finds that although greater migration could push down the wages of native workers of advanced countries in the short run, these wages eventually recover. This pattern would be mostly caused by the beneficial effect of additional labor on the real returns on capital and fostering faster capital formation. Additional South-North migration could favor capital income recipients and reduces labor income in host regions in the short run. In contrast, in sending countries, capital owners could experience lower incomes while wages rise. Globally, the welfare gains of new migrants could be expected to exceed the losses of old migrants by a wide margin. The remaining natives in sending countries could enjoy a net increase in remittances as well as an increase in labor income, although income from capital might decline. Second, in a hypothetical scenario with lower South-South migration, the implied losses of remittance income could lead to substantially lower welfare in developing countries. Although the wage differentials among developing countries tend to be smaller relative to their wage differentials with high-income countries, South-South migrants make substantial contributions to remittances.
    Keywords: Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Remittances,Population Policies
    Date: 2016–04–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7628&r=lab
  10. By: Fougère, Denis; Gautier, Erwan; Roux, Sébastien
    Abstract: This paper examines empirically how industry-level wage floors are set in French industry-level wage agreements and how the national minimum wage (NMW) interacts with industry-level wage bargaining. For this, we use a unique dataset containing about 48,000 occupation-specific wage floors, in more than 340 French industries over the period 2006-2014. We find that the NMW has a significant impact on the seasonality and on the timing of the wage bargaining process. Inflation, past sectoral wage increases and real NMW increases are the main drivers of wage floor adjustments; elasticities of wage floors with respect to these macro variables are 0.6, 0.3 and 0.25 respectively. Wage floor elasticities to inflation and to the NMW both decrease along the wage floor distribution but are still positive for all levels of wage floors.
    Keywords: collective bargaining; minimum wage; wages
    JEL: E24 J31 J51
    Date: 2016–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11234&r=lab
  11. By: Eichhorst, Werner (IZA); Marx, Paul (University of Southern Denmark); Wehner, Caroline (IZA and Maastricht University)
    Abstract: Labor market segmentation refers to a salient divide between secure and insecure jobs and is related to problems in important areas, including macro‐economic efficiency, workers' wellbeing and repercussions for social cohesion. European countries have started a new wave of labor market reforms in the aftermath of the 2008/09 crisis to tackle a number of issues, including labor market segmentation. This particularly concerns reforms in: (1) employment protection, i.e. dismissal protection and restrictions on fixed‐term contracts; (2) unemployment benefit generosity and coverage; and (3) the intensity of active labor market policies. The paper provides an overview of reform patterns and tries to assess whether and to what extent these reforms have led to more or less dualized labor markets in terms of dismissal protection, the provision of unemployment benefits and access to ALMPs. In particular, we will provide some evidence on potential changes in hirings on temporary contracts.
    Keywords: employment protection, labor market reforms, unemployment insurance, flexicurity
    JEL: J42 J48 J68
    Date: 2016–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9863&r=lab
  12. By: Samuel Marden (Department of Economics, University of Sussex)
    Abstract: In China, many fewer girls are born than would be expected given natural birth rates. This imbalance has worsened dramatically over the last 40 years. The roughly contemporaneous fall in fertility per woman is often mooted as a source of this apparent increased demand for sex selection: fewer births make it harder to have a son by chance. Despite this, causal evidence is limited. This paper exploits geographic variation in changes in fertility, arising as a consequence of China’s agricultural reforms (1978-84), to provide this evidence. Specifically, I show that households living in counties that benefitted more from the reforms, increased their fertility relative to households elsewhere. I then show that these households are also less likely to engage in sex selection. These changes appear to have been due to higher local incomes interacting with the enforcement of the One Child Policy. The timing of the changes in fertility and sex selection are informative: while fertility increased almost immediately, the decline in sex selection only emerged from the mid 1980s— contemporaneous with the widespread availability of ultrasound. These results suggest that the dramatic decline in fertility in 1970s China, as well as the smaller decline due to the One Child Policy in the 1980s, may have had an important role in fuelling the demand for sex selection.
    JEL: J11 J13 J16
    Date: 2016–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:9016&r=lab
  13. By: Khraief, Naceur (Faculty of Economic Science and Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Tunisia, & GREDEG (Research Group on Law Economics and Management, University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, France); Shahbaz, Muhammad (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Lahore, Pakistan); Heshmati, Almas (Jönköping International Business School (JIBS), Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS),& Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul, South Korea); Azam, Muhammad (School of Economics, Finance & Banking, College of Business, Universiti Utara Malaysia)
    Abstract: This paper revisits the dynamics of unemployment rate for 29 OECD countries over the period of 1980-2013. Numerous empirical studies of the dynamics of unemployment rate are carried out within a linear framework. However, unemployment rate can show nonlinear behaviour as a result of business cycles or some idiosyncratic factors specific to labour market (Cancelo, 2007). Thus, as a testing strategy we first perform Harvey et al. (2008) linearity unit root test and then apply the newly ESTAR nonlinear unit root test suggested by Kruse (2011). This test has higher power than conventional unit root tests when time series exhibits nonlinear behaviour. Our empirical findings provide significant evidence in favour of unemployment rate stationarity for 25 countries. For robustness purpose, we have also used panel unit root tests without and with structural breaks. The results show that unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is strongly rejected when taking into account the cross-sectional and structural break assumptions. Thus, unemployment rates are expected to return back to their natural levels without executing any costly macroeconomic labour market policies by the OECD’s governments.
    Keywords: Unemployment; Unit root; labour market policy; OECD
    JEL: C23 E24 J48 J64 N30
    Date: 2016–04–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0435&r=lab
  14. By: David Haugh; Yosuke Jin; Alberto González Pandiella
    Abstract: The Irish economy is growing strongly, but there is a risk many households will be left behind despite robust growth. High joblessness especially among the low-educated and skill-biased wage differentials have induced high market income inequality, among the highest in the OECD. Ireland’s comprehensive welfare system provides a broad range of social benefits, which keeps jobless households out of poverty, but this reduces the financial incentives to work, especially for families with children. Structural unemployment is also explained by the lack of skills required to find employment in the Irish labour market, where the presence of multinational enterprises increases the reward for high skills and the penalty for poor skills. With the unemployed pool lacking the right skills and financial incentives, employers tend to resort to foreign workers, a practice facilitated by the well-functioning migration system. Getting more people into work is important to share the benefits of the recovery as widely as possible. This requires building up work capacity, especially by improving jobseekers’ training, and ensuring welfare recipients honour their Job Path commitments in return. More needs to be done to increase incentive to work by reducing welfare and low-income traps. This should be done by shifting the tax burden from labour to indirect taxes in a progressive way that does not harm the lowest income groups. (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-ireland.htm). Grandir ensemble : Vers une Irlande plus inclusive La croissance de l'économie irlandaise est forte, mais il y a un risque que nombreux ménages restent à l’écart de cette croissance robuste. Le chômage élevé, surtout parmi les personnes peu instruites, et les différences de salaires basées sur les compétences, ont induit une forte inégalité des revenus avant impôts et transferts, , qui se situe parmi les plus élevées de l'OCDE. Le système de protection sociale élargi de l'Irlande offre une vaste gamme de prestations sociales, qui évite la pauvreté pour les ménages sans emploi , mais qui réduit les incitations financières au travail, en particulier pour les familles avec enfants. Le chômage structurel est également expliqué par le manque de compétences nécessaires pour trouver un emploi sur le marché du travail irlandais, où les entreprises multinationales recherchent des compétences élevées, ce qui pénalise qui n’ont pas les qualifications requises. Etant donné que les demandeurs d’emploi irlandais n’ont souvent pas les compétences requises et font face à peu d’incitations financières, les employeurs ont tendance à recourir à des travailleurs étrangers, une pratique facilitée par le système dímmigration qui fonctionne bien. Faciliter le retour à l’emploi est important pour parvenir à un partage partager des fruits de la reprise aussi large que possible. Cela nécessite d’améliorer le socle des compétences, et notamment la formation des demandeurs d'emploi, et d'assurer que les bénéficiaires de prestations sociales respectent leurs engagements en termes de retour à l’emploi. Plus doit être fait pour accroître les incitations au travail et pour réduire les trappes dans les bas revenus et les prestations sociales, . Cela devrait être fait en transférant la pression fiscale pesant sur le travail vers les impôts indirects, d'une manière progressive afin de ne pas nuire pas aux groupes à faible revenu. (www.oecd.org/fr/eco/etudes/etude-econom ique-irlande.htm).
    Keywords: labour market reform, skills, turnover, réforme du marché du travail
    JEL: E2 E24 J01 J08 J6
    Date: 2016–04–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1293-en&r=lab
  15. By: Joel Waldfogel
    Abstract: What determines employee preferences for unionizing their workplaces? A substantial literature addresses this question with surveys on worker attitudes and pay. Unionization drives at the Universities of Minnesota and Washington have given rise to open letters of support or opposition from over 1,000 faculty at Washington and support from over 200 at Minnesota. Combining these expressions with publicly available data on salary, job titles, department affiliation, research productivity, teaching success, and political contributions from over 5,000 faculty, we provide new estimates of the determinants of faculty preferences for unionization at research universities. We find that faculty with higher pay and greater research productivity are less supportive of unionization, even after controlling for job title and department. Attitudes matter as well: after accounting for pay and productivity, faculty in fields documented elsewhere to have more politically liberal participants are more likely to support unionization.
    JEL: J51 K31
    Date: 2016–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22149&r=lab
  16. By: Philip Verwimp
    Abstract: It is well-known that more educated women have their first child at later age compared to less educated women. The causality of this relationship and the mechanisms behind it however are another matter. In this paper we use a regression discontinuity design to infer the causal effect of prolonged schooling on the timing of the first child as well as the drivers of the effect. We tracked and interviewed 375 young Burundian women who took part in their countries ‘Concours Nationale’, a nationwide test taken at age 15.5 on average that decides whether or not someone can continue their education. Failure or success in this test strongly affects age at first child. As a lot of girls manage to circumvent the test score cut-off point set by the Ministry of Education, we employ a fuzzy method whereby the assignment into treatment serves as an instrumental variable for effective treatment. We find an ITT of -13 and a LATE of -54 percentage points on the probability to have had a pregnancy four years after the test and of -27 before age 20. An additional year of secondary school reduces the probability to become pregnant by 8 percentage points. We also find evidence for several channels raised in the literature to explain the finding (incarceration, knowledge and modernization). The results are robust to alternative specifications.
    Keywords: schooling; fertility; contraception; Africa; regression discontinuity
    JEL: J13 I21
    Date: 2016–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/229281&r=lab
  17. By: E. Monnet; C. Wolf
    Abstract: We study residential investment over GDP in 20 OECD countries since 1980, and show that it is closely associated with the growth dynamics of population aged 20-49. We develop a new method to uncover the causal effect of the growth of the 20-49 age group. Using past demographic data as an instrument to avoid potential endogeneity between migration and the housing cycle, we find that a 1% increase in the population aged 20-49 increases the residential investment rate by 1.3 pp. Demographic changes are a better predictor of the residential investment rate than any macroeconomic or financial variable we control for.
    Keywords: business cycle, housing, demography, migration.
    JEL: E32 J11 R21
    Date: 2016
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:591&r=lab
  18. By: Laurens Cherchye; Bram De Rock; Selma Telalagic Walther; Frederic Vermeulen
    Abstract: Abstract: Do individuals divorce for economic reasons? Can we measure the attractiveness of new matches in the marriage market? We answer these questions using a structural model of the household and a rich panel dataset from Malawi. We propose a model of the household with consumption, production and revealed preference conditions for stability on the marriage market. We define marital instability in terms of the consumption gains to remarrying another individual in the same marriage market, and to being single. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the wife’s estimated consumption gains from remarriage is significantly associated with a 0.6 percentage point increase in divorce probability in the next three years. In a multinomial model, higher values of consumption gains from remarriage raise the odds of divorce and remarriage but not of divorce and singleness. These findings provide out-of-sample validation of the structural model and shed new light on the economic determinants of divorce.
    Keywords: Marriage Market, Divorce, Malawi, Agricultural Production, Revealed Preference
    JEL: D11 D12 D13 J12
    Date: 2016–03–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:786&r=lab
  19. By: Holzmann, Robert (University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: This policy paper summarizes four corridor studies on bilateral social security agreements (BSSAs) between four EU Member and two non-Member States, draws conclusions on their results, and offers recommendations. BSSAs between migrant-sending and migrant-receiving countries are seen as the most important instrument to establish portability of social security benefits for internationally mobile workers. Yet only about 23 percent of international migrants profit from BSSAs and their functioning has been little analyzed and even less assessed. The four corridors studied (Austria-Turkey, Germany-Turkey, Belgium-Morocco, and France-Morocco) were selected to allow for comparison of both similarities and differences in experiences. The evaluation of these corridors' BSSAs was undertaken against a methodological framework and three selected criteria: fairness for individuals, fiscal fairness for countries, and bureaucratic effectiveness for countries and migrant workers. The results suggest that the investigated BSSAs work and overall deliver reasonably well on individual fairness. The results on fiscal fairness are clouded by conceptual and empirical gaps. Bureaucratic effectiveness would profit from ICT-based exchanges on both corridors once available.
    Keywords: acquired rights, labor mobility, migration corridor, administration, evaluation
    JEL: D69 H55 I19 J62
    Date: 2016–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp111&r=lab

This nep-lab issue is ©2016 by Joseph Marchand. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at http://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.