nep-lab New Economics Papers
on Labour Economics
Issue of 2015‒11‒15
twenty-two papers chosen by
Joseph Marchand
University of Alberta

  1. Youth Unemployment and Active Labor Market Policies in Europe By Caliendo, Marco; Schmidl, Ricarda
  2. Gender Identity and Women's Supply of Labor and Non-Market Work: Panel Data Evidence for Germany By Wieber, Anna; Holst, Elke
  3. Identifying Sorting in Practice By Cristian Bartolucci; Francesco Devicienti; Ignacio Monzon
  4. Global value chains and the effects of outsourcing and offshoring on firms: Evidence from matched firm-employee data By Lindic, Mojca
  5. Unions in a Frictional Labor Market By Leena Rudanko; Per Krusell
  6. Nonmonetary Job Characteristics and Employment Transitions at Older Ages By Marco Angrisani; Arie Kapteyn; Erik Meijer
  7. Does Eliminating the Earnings Test Increase the Incidence of Low Income among Older Women? By Theodore Figinski; David Neumark
  8. The Effect of Linguistic Proximity on the Occupational Assimilation of Immigrant Men in Canada By Adsera, Alicia; Ferrer, Ana
  9. Immigrant Employment and Earnings Growth in Canada and the U.S.: Evidence from Longitudinal Data By Kaushal, Neeraj; Lu, Yao; Denier, Nicole; Wang, Julia Shu-Huah; Trejo, Stephen
  10. Improving the Integration of Refugees: An Early Evaluation of a Swedish Reform By Andersson Joona, Pernilla; Lanninger, Alma W.; Sundström, Marianne
  11. Early Childhood Education By Elango, Sneha; García, Jorge Luis; Heckman, James J.; Hojman, Andrés
  12. Social Networks and the Labour Market Mismatch By Kalfa, Eleni; Piracha, Matloob
  13. Competitiveness and the gender gap among young business professionals By Reuben, Ernesto; Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi
  14. Regional economic integration and factor mobility in unified Germany By Böhm, Sebastian
  15. Temporary employment, demand volatility and unions: Firm-level evidence By Francesco Devicienti; Paolo Naticchioni; Andrea Ricci
  16. Worker flows in the European Union during the Great Recession By Casado, Jose Maria; Fernandez, Cristina; Jimeno, Juan F.
  17. Job Loss, Firm‐Level Heterogeneity and Mortality: Evidence from Administrative Data By Bloemen, Hans; Hochguertel, Stefan; Zweerink, Jochem
  18. Education, Health and Fertility of UK Immigrants: The Role of English Language Skills By Aoki, Yu; Santiago, Lualhati
  19. Spatial Mismatch through Local Public Employment Agencies? Answers from a French Quasi-Experiment By Mathieu Bunel; Elisabeth Tovar
  20. Childcare and the division of parental leave By Norén, Anna
  21. Old-Age Pension and Intergenerational Living Arrangements By Chen, Xi
  22. Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates By Barreca, Alan I.; Deschenes, Olivier; Guldi, Melanie

  1. By: Caliendo, Marco (University of Potsdam); Schmidl, Ricarda (University of Mannheim)
    Abstract: Since the economic crisis in 2008, European youth unemployment rates have been persistently high at around 20% on average. The majority of European countries spends significant resources each year on active labor market programs (ALMP) with the aim of improving the integration prospects of struggling youths. Among the most common programs used are training courses, job search assistance and monitoring, subsidized employment, and public work programs. For policy makers, it is of upmost importance to know which of these programs work and which are able to achieve the intended goals – may it be the integration into the first labor market or further education. Based on a detailed assessment of the particularities of the youth labor market situation, we discuss the pros and cons of different ALMP types. We then provide a comprehensive survey of the recent evidence on the effectiveness of these ALMP for youth in Europe, highlighting factors that seem to promote or impede their effectiveness in practice. Overall, the findings with respect to employment outcomes are only partly promising. While job search assistance (with and without monitoring) results in overwhelmingly positive effects, we find more mixed effects for training and wage subsidies, whereas the effects for public work programs are clearly negative. The evidence on the impact of ALMP on furthering education participation as well as employment quality is scarce, requiring additional research and allowing only limited conclusions so far.
    Keywords: youth unemployment, active labor market policies, evaluation, training, job search
    JEL: J13 J68 J64
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9488&r=lab
  2. By: Wieber, Anna (DIW Berlin); Holst, Elke (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: This paper aims to verify results of the innovative study on gender identity for the USA by Bertrand et al. (2015) for Germany. They found that women who would earn more than their husbands distort their labor market outcome in order not to violate traditional gender identity norms. Using data from the German Socio-economic Panel Study we also find that the distribution of the share of income earned by the wife exhibits a sharp drop to the right of the half, where the wife's income exceeds the husband's income. The results of the fixed effects regression confirm that gender identity has an impact on the labor supply of full time working women, but only in Western Germany. We also show that gender identity affects the supply of housework but in contrast to the US where women increase their contribution to non-market work when they actually have a higher income than their husbands, we find for Germany that women only barely reduce their weekly hours of non-market work once their income exceeds that of their husbands.
    Keywords: gender roles, gender gap, female labor supply, non-market work
    JEL: D10 J12
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9471&r=lab
  3. By: Cristian Bartolucci; Francesco Devicienti; Ignacio Monzon
    Abstract: We propose a novel methodology to uncover the sorting pattern in the labor market. Our methodology exploits the additional information contained in profits, which complements the information from wages and transitions typically used in previous work. We identify the strength of sorting solely from a ranking of firms by profits. To discern the sign of sorting, we build a noisy ranking of workers from wage data. We provide a test for the sign of sorting that is consistent even with noise in worker rankings. We apply our approach to a panel data set that combines social security earnings records for workers in the Veneto region of Italy with detailed financial data for firms. We find robust evidence of positive sorting. The correlation between worker and firm types is about 52%.
    Keywords: Assortative matching; worker mobility; profits; matched employer-employee data
    JEL: J6 J31 L2
    Date: 2015
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:431&r=lab
  4. By: Lindic, Mojca
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of outsourcing and offshoring on the skill structure of firms. The study verifies whether controlling for both activities in one model alters previous empirical studies, which controlled only for one factor in their models; whether controlling for destination country of outsourcing and offshoring brings new insights; and whether controlling for occupational level of workers when defining skills brings additional contribution to the results. Regarding the latter, besides the conventional approach for defining skills, i.e. the educational level, skills are also defined by three major occupational groups; Managers, Professionals and Technicians. To empirically estimate the abovementioned hypotheses, a matched employer-employee dataset for Slovenian manufacturing and service firms during 1997 to 2010, and the methods for panel data analysis were used. Results of the model on average show a positive impact of offshoring on the skill share of firms, while the results for outsourcing are uncommon. When controlling for high- and low-income countries, the results for manufacturing firms show a positive and similar effect of offshoring to both groups of countries on the share of skilled employees. In service firms, results show a weaker impact of offshoring to high-income countries on the relative employment of skilled, compared to offshoring to low-income countries. When taking into account also occupational levels for defining skills, the results show that the impact of education differs between occupational groups, indicating that firms differentiate between more and less educated individuals within the same occupational group.
    Keywords: offshoring, outsourcing, skill structure of firms
    JEL: F14 F16
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67437&r=lab
  5. By: Leena Rudanko (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Per Krusell (Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES); University of Göteborg; CEPR; NBER)
    Abstract: We analyze a labor market with search and matching frictions where wage setting is controlled by a monopoly union. Frictions render existing matches a form of firm-specific capital which is subject to a hold-up problem in a unionized labor market. We study how this hold-up problem manifests itself in a dynamic infinite horizon model, with fully rational agents. We find that wage solidarity, seemingly an important norm governing union operations, leaves the unionized labor market vulnerable to potentially substantial distortions due to hold-up. Introducing a tenure premium in wages may allow the union to avoid the problem entirely, however, potentially allowing efficient hiring. Under an egalitarian wage policy, the degree of commitment to future wages is important for outcomes: with full commitment to future wages, the union achieves efficient hiring in the long run, but hikes up wages in the short run to appropriate rents from firms. Without commitment, and in a Markov-perfect equilibrium, hiring is well below its efficient level both in the short and the long run. We demonstrate the quantitative impact of the union in an extended model with partial union coverage and multi-period union contracting.
    Keywords: Labour unions, frictional labour markets, time inconsistency, limited commitment, long-term contracting
    JEL: E02 E24 J51 J64
    Date: 2015–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1531&r=lab
  6. By: Marco Angrisani (University of Southern California); Arie Kapteyn (University of Southern California); Erik Meijer (University of Southern California)
    Abstract: This paper studies to what extent job characteristics such as physical and cognitive demands, use of technologies, responsibility, difficulty, stress, peer pressure, and relations with co-workers are related to full or partial retirement. We study employment transitions and retirement expectations of older workers by exploiting the wealth of information about individuals older than age 50 in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and characteristics of different occupations provided by the Occupation Information Network (O*NET) database. Controlling for basic demographics, wages, benefits, health, cognitive ability, personality, and other personal characteristics, we find strong and statistically significant relationships between labor force transitions and job characteristics. These relationships are typically more pronounced and more precisely estimated when we use objective job attributes taken from the O*NET than when we use self-reported job characteristics taken from the HRS, but self-reported characteristics are more strongly related to moves from full-time to part-time employment. Using expected retirement age or subjective probabilities of working full-time at older ages gives similar results to using actual labor force transitions as the dependent variable. The estimated effects of job characteristics are again stronger and more robust to alternative specifications when measures of job attributes are taken from the O*NET than from the HRS. Our findings suggest that nonmonetary job characteristics are important determinants of labor supply decisions at older ages, but our analysis is still preliminary in its attempt to uncover causal relationships: Unobservable individual characteristics responsible for sorting into specific occupations may also shape retirement decisions.
    Date: 2015–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp326&r=lab
  7. By: Theodore Figinski (U.S. Department of the Treasury); David Neumark (University of California–Irvine, National Bureau of Economic Research, Institute for the Study of Labor)
    Abstract: Reductions in the implicit taxation of Social Security benefits from reducing or eliminating the Retirement Earnings Test (RET) are an appealing – and in many cases successful – means of encouraging labor supply of older individuals receiving benefits. The downside, however, is that the same policy reforms can encourage earlier claiming of Social Security benefits, which permanently lowers benefits paid in the future. Depending on the magnitude of the effects on earnings and how households or individuals adjust their consumption and savings decisions, the net effect can be lower incomes at much older ages well beyond when people have retired. We explore the consequences of the 2000 reforms eliminating the RET from the Full Retirement Age to age 69 for the longer-run evolution of income, focusing in particular on the incidence of low income among older women, who are more likely to have become dependent mainly on income from their Social Security benefits. We find that the elimination of the RET increased the likelihood of having low incomes among women in their mid-70s and older – ages at which the lower benefits from claiming earlier outweigh possibly higher income in the period when women or their husbands increased their labor supply.
    Date: 2015–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp325&r=lab
  8. By: Adsera, Alicia (Princeton University); Ferrer, Ana (University of Waterloo)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the analysis of the integration of immigrants in the Canadian labour market by focusing in two relatively new dimensions. We combine the large samples of the restricted version of the Canadian Census (1991-2006) with both a new measure of linguistic proximity of the immigrant's mother tongue to that of the destination country, and with information of the occupational skills embodied in the jobs immigrants hold. This allows us to assess the role that language plays in the labour market performance of immigrants and to better study their career progression relative to the native born. Weekly wage differences between immigrants and the native born are driven mostly by penalties associated with immigrants' lower returns to social skills, but not to analytical or manual skills. Interestingly, low linguistic proximity between origin and destination language imposes larger wage penalties to the university-educated, and significantly affects the status of the jobs they hold. The influence of linguistic proximity on the skill content of jobs immigrants hold over time also varies by the educational level of the migrant. We also show that immigrants settling in Quebec and whose mother tongue is close to French have similar or better labour market outcomes (relative to native-born residents in Quebec) than immigrants with close linguistic proximity to English settling outside Quebec (relative to native born residents in the rest of Canada). However, since wages in Quebec are lower than elsewhere, immigrants in Quebec earn less in absolute terms than those residing elsewhere.
    Keywords: migration, occupational skills, linguistic ability, wage assimilation, linguistic proximity
    JEL: F22 J24 J31 J5
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9499&r=lab
  9. By: Kaushal, Neeraj (Columbia University); Lu, Yao (Columbia University); Denier, Nicole (McGill University); Wang, Julia Shu-Huah (Columbia University); Trejo, Stephen (University of Texas at Austin)
    Abstract: We study the short-term trajectories of employment, hours worked, and real wages of immigrants in Canada and the U.S. using nationally representative longitudinal datasets covering 1996-2008. Models with person fixed effects show that on average immigrant men in Canada do not experience any relative growth in these three outcomes compared to men born in Canada. Immigrant men in the U.S., on the other hand, experience positive annual growth in all three domains relative to U.S. born men. This difference is largely on account of low-educated immigrant men, who experience faster or longer periods of relative growth in employment and wages in the U.S. than in Canada. We further compare longitudinal and cross-sectional trajectories and find that the latter over-estimate wage growth of earlier arrivals, presumably reflecting selective return migration.
    Keywords: U.S. immigrants, Canadian immigrants, economic assimilation, longitudinal data, immigration, employment, wages, comparative study
    JEL: J15 J3 J18
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9495&r=lab
  10. By: Andersson Joona, Pernilla (SOFI, Stockholm University); Lanninger, Alma W. (SOFI, Stockholm University); Sundström, Marianne (SOFI, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: This paper is an early evaluation of the Swedish Establishment Reform which was enacted in 2010 with the goal of facilitating and speeding up the integration of refugees and their family into the labor market and the society. From December 1, 2010 the reform transferred the responsibility for the integration of newly-arrived refugees from the municipalities to the government funded Public Employment Service through which those eligible would get an establishment plan and a coach. The reform was motived by concern over the low employment level and slow integration of refugees. Our approach is to compare the outcomes of the treatment group, which took part in establishment activities and arrived between December 1, 2010 and December 31, 2011, to those of the comparison group, which arrived in the eleven months preceding the Reform and participated in municipal introduction programs, controlling for a rich set of observables, including country of birth and date of residence permit. Outcomes are measured in terms of employment and earnings in 2012 for the treatment group and in 2011 for the comparison group. Our data comes from registers held by Statistics Sweden and the Public Employment Service and covers all immigrants. Although there are good reasons to expect positive effects of the Reform we find no significant difference in employment or earnings between the treatment group and the comparison group.
    Keywords: integration, refugees, labor market policy, treatment effect, employment, earnings, caseworkers
    JEL: J15 J61 J68
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9496&r=lab
  11. By: Elango, Sneha (University of Chicago); García, Jorge Luis (University of Chicago); Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago); Hojman, Andrés (University of Chicago)
    Abstract: This paper organizes and synthesizes the literature on early childhood education and childcare. In it, we go beyond meta-analysis and reanalyze primary data sources in a common framework. We consider the evidence from means-tested demonstration programs, large-scale means-tested programs and universal programs without means testing. We discuss which programs are effective and whether, and for which populations, these programs should be subsidized by governments. The evidence from high-quality demonstration programs targeted toward disadvantaged children shows beneficial effects. Returns exceed costs, even accounting for the deadweight loss of collecting taxes. When proper policy counterfactuals are constructed, Head Start has beneficial effects on disadvantaged children compared to home alternatives. Universal programs benefit disadvantaged children.
    Keywords: early childhood education, childcare, evaluation of social programs
    JEL: J13 I28 C93
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9476&r=lab
  12. By: Kalfa, Eleni (University of Kent); Piracha, Matloob (University of Kent)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the extent to which social contacts and ethnic concentration affect the education-occupation mismatch of natives and immigrants. Using Australian panel data and employing a dynamic random effects probit model, we show that social capital exacerbates the incidence of over-education, particularly for females. Furthermore, for the foreign-born, ethnic concentration significantly increases the incidence of over-education. Using an alternative index, we also show that social participation, friends and support and ethnic concentration are the main contributors in generating a mismatch, while reciprocity and trust does not seem to have any effect on over-education for both, immigrants and natives. Finally, we show that social networks are more beneficial for the relatively better educated.
    Keywords: social capital, ethnic concentration, over-education
    JEL: F22 J61 Z13
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9493&r=lab
  13. By: Reuben, Ernesto; Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi
    Abstract: Using an incentivized measure of test for competition, this paper investigates whether this taste explains subsequent gender differences in earnings and industry choice in a sample of high-ability MBA graduates. We find that “competitive” individuals earn 9% more than their less competitive counterparts do. Moreover, gender differences in taste for competition explain around 10% of the overall gender gap. We also find that competitive individuals are more likely to work in high-paying industries nine years later, which suggests that the relation between taste for competition and earnings persists in the long run. Lastly, we find that the effect of taste for competition emerges over time when MBAs and firms interact with each other.
    Keywords: business career; gender differences; gender gap; taste for competition
    JEL: C93 D81 D84 I21 J16
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10924&r=lab
  14. By: Böhm, Sebastian
    Abstract: The massive movement of capital and labor in opposite directions is the most striking characteristic of economic integration of Eastern and Western Germany. Beyond that, wage-setting behavior during the early years of unification and massive public social transfers have affected the transition path of the Eastern economy. In this paper, I set up a two-region open economy model with capital and labor mobility, wage-setting behavior, and public social transfers to explain major empirical trends of the German integration episode. I show that the model is able to replicate aggregate migration pattern in unified Germany and that wage-setting behavior has delayed labor productivity convergence between both German regions, whereas public social transfers have reduced the effect of wage setting on East-West net migration.
    Keywords: Economic Integration; German Reunification; Capital Mobility; Migration
    JEL: F20 E60 H20 J61
    Date: 2015–11–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fri:fribow:fribow00463&r=lab
  15. By: Francesco Devicienti; Paolo Naticchioni; Andrea Ricci
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of workplace unionization and product market volatility on firms' propensity to use temporary employment. Using Italian firm level data, we show that unionization and volatility have a positive impact on the share of temporary contracts. However, as volatility increases the union effect becomes negative, suggesting that in a highly volatile economic environment unions may be concerned about the weakening of their bargaining power associated with an extensive use of temporary workers. Furthermore, these effects are at work only for the use of non-training temporary contracts, while training temporary contracts are not affected by unions, volatility and their interplay. We argue that this occurs because non-training temporary contracts can be used by firms as a buffer stock to cope with uncertainty and by unions to protect insiders, while training temporary contracts are more likely to be used as a screening device for future permanent positions.
    Keywords: unions, temporary workers, training, product demand volatility, firms
    JEL: J51 J23 J24
    Date: 2015
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:434&r=lab
  16. By: Casado, Jose Maria; Fernandez, Cristina; Jimeno, Juan F.
    Abstract: We measure the contribution of worker flows across employment, unemployment, and non-participation to the change in unemployment in eleven EU countries during the period 2006-2012, paying special attention to which socio-demographic groups in each of the countries were mostly affected by job creation and job destruction during the crisis. We find that age, to a larger extent than educational attainments, is the main determinant of flows from employment into unemployment, particularly in those countries where unemployment increased by most. Secondly, we highlight some institutional features of the labour market (employment protection legislation, unemployment insurance, and the incidence of active labor market policies) that help to explain the cross-country differences in flows between employment and unemployment and in their socio-demographic composition. Finally, we examine if the crisis has led to some employment reallocation across sectors, finding that, so far, there is no clear evidence in favor of cleansing effects. JEL Classification: J6, E24, C25
    Keywords: Great Recession, Labour Flows, Labour Market Institutions, Unemployment
    Date: 2015–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151862&r=lab
  17. By: Bloemen, Hans (VU University Amsterdam); Hochguertel, Stefan (VU University Amsterdam); Zweerink, Jochem (VU University Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of job loss on mortality for older male workers with strong labor force attachment. Using Dutch administrative data, we find that job loss due to sudden firm closure increased the probability to die within five years by a sizable 0.60 percentage points. Importantly, this effect is estimated using a model that controls for firm‐level worker characteristics, such as firm‐level average mortality rates for mortality during the four years prior to the year of observation. On the mechanism driving the effect of job loss on mortality, we provide evidence for an effect running through stress and changes in life style.
    Keywords: job loss, mortality, treatment effect
    JEL: C21 I10 J63
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9483&r=lab
  18. By: Aoki, Yu (University of Aberdeen); Santiago, Lualhati (Office for National Statistics, UK)
    Abstract: This paper aims to identify the causal effect of English language skills on education, health and fertility outcomes of immigrants in England and Wales. We construct an instrument for language skills using age at arrival in the United Kingdom, exploiting the fact that young children learn languages more easily than older children and adults. Using a unique individual-level dataset that links 2011 census data to life event records for the population living in England and Wales, we find that better English language skills significantly lower the probability of having no qualifications and raise that of obtaining academic degrees, but do not affect child health and self-reported adult health. The impact of language on fertility outcomes is also considerable: Better English skills significantly delay the age at which a woman has her first child, lower the likelihood of becoming a teenage mother, and decrease fertility.
    Keywords: language skills, education, health, fertility
    JEL: I10 I20 J13
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9498&r=lab
  19. By: Mathieu Bunel; Elisabeth Tovar
    Abstract: Using the unanticipated creation of a new agency in the French region of Lyon as a quasinatural experiment, we question whether distance to local public employment agencies (LPEAs) is a new channel for spatial mismatch. Contrary to past evidence based on aggregated data and consistent with the spatial mismatch literature, we find no evidence of a worker/agency spatial mismatch, which supports a resizing of the French LPEA network. However, echoing the literature on the institutional determinants of the local public employment agencies’ efficiency, we do find detrimental institutional transitory effects.
    Keywords: spatial mismatch, unemployment, public employment service, quasi-experiment.
    JEL: J58 R53
    Date: 2015
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2015-32&r=lab
  20. By: Norén, Anna (Department of Economics, Uppsala University)
    Abstract: Despite several policies aimed at increasing fathers’ participation in the caring of children, Swedish mothers still use the bulk of the paid parental leave which may have several negative consequences for the family e.g. in terms of weaker labor market attachment for the mother. Division of parental leave is likely affected by how parents value the costs associated with parental leave. I investigate whether a reduction in the care burden, or a decreased non-monetary cost, of parental leave through the availability of childcare for older siblings affects how the leave is divided. The effect of access to childcare is evaluated by utilizing the regional heterogeneity of the implementation of a childcare reform in Sweden in 2002 that gave children of parents on parental leave with a younger sibling the right to stay in childcare. Results suggest that availability of childcare for an older sibling during parental leave does not impact the division of parental leave between mothers and fathers.
    Keywords: Childcare; Parental leave; Gender equality
    JEL: H31 J13 J16
    Date: 2015–11–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2015_024&r=lab
  21. By: Chen, Xi (Yale University)
    Abstract: China launched a pension program for rural residents in 2009, now covering more than 300 million Chinese. This program offers a unique setting for studying the ageing population, given the rapidity of China's population ageing, traditions of filial piety and co-residence, decreasing number of children, and dearth of formal social security, at a relatively low income level. This paper examines whether receipt of the old-age pension payment equips elderly parents and their adult children to live apart and whether parents substitute children's time involved in instrumental support to them with service consumption. Employing a regression discontinuity (hereafter RD) design to a primary longitudinal survey conducted in Guizhou province of China, this paper overcomes challenges in the literature that households eligible for pension payment might be systematically different from ineligible households and that it is difficult to separate the effect of pension from that of age or cohort heterogeneity. Around the pension eligibility age cut-off, results reveal large and significant reduction in intergenerational co-residence of the extended family and increase in service consumption among elderly parents.
    Keywords: rural pension, RD Design, living arrangement, service consumption
    JEL: H55 I38 J14 J22
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9482&r=lab
  22. By: Barreca, Alan I. (Tulane University); Deschenes, Olivier (University of California, Santa Barbara); Guldi, Melanie (University of Central Florida)
    Abstract: Dynamic adjustments could be a useful strategy for mitigating the costs of acute environmental shocks when timing is not a strictly binding constraint. To investigate whether such adjustments could apply to fertility, we estimate the effects of temperature shocks on birth rates in the United States between 1931 and 2010. Our innovative approach allows for presumably random variation in the distribution of daily temperatures to affect birth rates up to 24 months into the future. We find that additional days above 80 °F cause a large decline in birth rates approximately 8 to 10 months later. The initial decline is followed by a partial rebound in births over the next few months implying that populations can mitigate the fertility cost of temperature shocks by shifting conception month. This dynamic adjustment helps explain the observed decline in birth rates during the spring and subsequent increase during the summer. The lack of a full rebound suggests that increased temperatures due to climate change may reduce population growth rates in the coming century. As an added cost, climate change will shift even more births to the summer months when third trimester exposure to dangerously high temperatures increases. Based on our analysis of historical changes in the temperature-fertility relationship, we conclude air conditioning could be used to substantially offset the fertility costs of climate change.
    Keywords: fertility, birth rates, seasonality, birth weight, temperature, climate change
    JEL: I12 J13 Q54
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9480&r=lab

This nep-lab issue is ©2015 by Joseph Marchand. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at http://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.