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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Vermeer, Niels (Dutch Ministry of Finance); Mastrogiacomo, Mauro (De Nederlandsche Bank); van Soest, Arthur (Tilburg University) |
| Abstract: | In several countries where pensions are reformed and the retirement age is increased, the issue came up to make an exception for workers with demanding occupations, since health considerations may make it unreasonable to expect them to work longer. We analyze unique Dutch survey data on the public's opinions on what are demanding occupations, on whether it is justified that someone with a demanding occupation can retire earlier, and on the willingness to contribute to an earlier retirement scheme for such occupations through higher taxes. A representative sample of Dutch adults answered several questions about hypothetical persons with five different jobs. We use panel data models, accounting for confounding factors affecting the evaluations of the demanding nature of the jobs as well as their reasonable retirement age or willingness to contribute to an early retirement scheme. We find that the Dutch think that workers in demanding occupations should be able to retire earlier. A one standard deviation increase in the perceived demanding nature of an occupation translates into a twelve months decrease in the reasonable retirement age and a 30 to 40 percentage points increase in the willingness to contribute to an early retirement scheme for that occupation. There is some evidence that respondents whose own job is similar to the occupation they evaluate find this occupation more demanding than other respondents, but respondents are also willing to contribute to early retirement of demanding occupations not similar to their own. |
| Keywords: | retirement age, public pensions, job characteristics, social preferences |
| JEL: | J26 J81 H55 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9462&r=lab |
| By: | Theodore Figinski; David Neumark |
| Abstract: | Reductions in the implicit taxation of Social Security benefits from reducing or eliminating the Retirement Earnings Test (RET) are an appealing – and in many cases successful – means of encouraging labor supply of older individuals receiving benefits. The downside, however, is that the same policy reforms can encourage earlier claiming of Social Security benefits, which permanently lowers benefits paid in the future. Depending on the magnitude of the effects on earnings and how households or individuals adjust their consumption and savings decisions, the net effect can be lower incomes at much older ages well beyond when people have retired. We explore the consequences of the 2000 reforms eliminating the RET from the Full Retirement Age to age 69 for the longer-run evolution of income, focusing in particular on the incidence of low income among older women, who are more likely to have become dependent mainly on income from their Social Security benefits. We find that the elimination of the RET increased the likelihood of having low incomes among women in their mid-70s and older – ages at which the lower benefits, in the long run, from claiming earlier outweigh possibly higher income in the period when women or their husbands increased their labor supply. |
| JEL: | H2 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21601&r=lab |
| By: | Peter Kuhn; Kailing Shen |
| Abstract: | We study urban, private sector Chinese employers’ preferences between workers with and without a local permanent residence permit (hukou) using callback information from an Internet job board. We find that these employers prefer migrant workers to locals who are identically matched to the job’s requirements; these preferences are strongest in jobs requiring lower levels of education and offering low pay. While migrant-native payroll tax differentials might account for some of this gap, we argue that the patterns are hard to explain without some role for a migrant productivity advantage in less skilled jobs. Possible sources of this advantage include positive selection of nonlocals into migration, negative selection of local workers into formal search for unskilled private sector jobs, efficiency wage effects related to unskilled migrants’ limited access to the urban social safety net, and intertemporal labor and effort substitution by temporary migrants that makes them more desirable workers. |
| JEL: | J71 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21675&r=lab |
| By: | Arni, Patrick (IZA); van den Berg, Gerard J. (University of Mannheim); Lalive, Rafael (University of Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | Public Employment Service (PES) agencies and caseworkers (CW) often have substantial leeway in the design and implementation of active labor market policies (ALMP) for the unemployed, resulting in variation of usage. This paper presents a novel framework in which this variation is used for the joint assessment of different ways in which ALMP effects can operate. We examine an additional layer of impacts – beyond the treatment effects on the treated job seekers – called regime effects, which potentially affect all job seekers and which are defined by the extent to which programs are intended to be used in a market. We propose a novel method to jointly estimate regime effects for two types of programs, supportive (carrots) and restrictive (sticks) programs. We apply this to contrast regime and treatment effects on unemployment durations, employment, and post-unemployment earnings using register data that contain PES and case-worker identifiers for about 130,000 job seekers. The results show that "carrots" and "sticks" treatments prolong unemployment, but carrots increase earnings whereas sticks decrease them. We find regime effects of a similar order of magnitude. Higher intended usage of carrots and sticks reduces unemployment durations, but carrots raise earnings whereas sticks decrease them. We also find interaction effects between carrots and sticks policies. Regime effects are economically substantial. Our comprehensive cost-benefits analyses show that modest increases in the intended usage of carrots and sticks reduce the total cost of an unemployed individual by up to 10%. |
| Keywords: | active labor market programs, policy regime, treatment effect, employment, earnings, unemployment, caseworkers |
| JEL: | J65 J68 J64 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9457&r=lab |
| By: | Eichhorst, Werner (IZA); Wozny, Florian (IZA); Mähönen, Erno (University of Jyväskylä) |
| Abstract: | After the apparent rise of so‐called atypical and 'precarious' jobs, the quality of employment has become of interest because such employment relationships are often related to objectively or subjectively worse working conditions. In this paper we look in detail into what is known about job quality, what kinds of effects it has on job satisfaction, and how the quality of jobs has changed in the past by assessing objective and subjective indicators for different educational groups. Results show that a general negative trend in the development of work quality cannot be observed, neither for 'hard' indicators such as the share of temporary employment or unusual working time nor for 'soft' indicators like job satisfaction or perceptions about job security. Developments are rather country‐specific, and even within countries differences occur between educational groups. |
| Keywords: | quality of employment, good jobs, non‐standard work, job satisfaction |
| JEL: | J21 J28 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9461&r=lab |
| By: | Corrado Giulietti (Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)); Mirco Tonin (Free University of Bolzano‐Bozen, Faculty of Economics and Management); Michael Vlassopoulos (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | Discrimination in access to public services can act as a major obstacle towards addressing racial inequality. We examine whether racial discrimination exists in access to a wide spectrum of public services in the US. We carry out an email correspondence study in which we pose simple queries to more than 19,000 local public service providers. We find that emails are less likely to receive a response if signed by a black-sounding name compared to a white-sounding name. Given a response rate of 72% for white senders, emails from putatively black senders are almost 4 percentage points less likely to receive an answer. We also find that responses to queries coming from black names are less likely to have a cordial tone. Further tests suggest that the differential in the likelihood of answering is due to animus towards blacks rather than inferring socioeconomic status from race. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, public services provision, school districts, libraries, sheriffs, field experiment, correspondence study |
| JEL: | D73 H41 J15 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps33&r=lab |
| By: | Jürgen Bitzer (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Erkan Gören (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Sanne Hiller (Ruhr University Bochum) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the question of how immigrant employees affect a firm’s capacity to absorb foreign knowledge. Using matched employer-employee data from Denmark for the years 1996 to 2009, we are able to show that non-Danish employees from technologically<br>advanced countries contribute significantly to a firm’s total factor productivity (TFP) through their ability to access foreign knowledge. The empirical results suggest that the impact increases if the immigrants come from technologically advanced countries, are highly educated, and work in high-skilled positions. |
| Keywords: | R&D Spillovers, Absorptive Capacity, Firm-Level Analysis,<br>Foreign Workers, Immigrants |
| JEL: | D20 J82 L20 O30 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:386&r=lab |
| By: | Andrew Foote; Michel Grosz; Ann Huff Stevens |
| Abstract: | Large shocks to local labor markets can cause long-lasting changes to employment, unemployment and the local labor force. This study examines the relationship between mass layoffs and the long-run size of the local labor force. It considers four main channels through which the local labor force may adjust: in-migration, out-migration, retirement, and disability insurance enrollment. We show that these channels account for over half of the labor force reductions following a mass layoff event. By measuring the residual difference between these channels and net labor force change, we also show that labor force non-participation accounted for much of the local labor force response in the period during and after the Great Recession. |
| JEL: | H55 J01 J63 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21618&r=lab |
| By: | Viviana Alejandra Alfonso C. |
| Abstract: | This work uses readily accessible data about the stocks of unemployed workers, labor force and duration of unemployment to measure the job finding and separation rates for Colombia from 1984 to 2014. It also evaluates the relative contribution of these rates to the fluctuations of unemployment rate. It is found that contemporaneous movements in both rates explain significantly and in roughly the same proportion the changes in the unemployment rate during the analyzed period; however, for the last seven years job finding rate has driven the unemployment fluctuations. The results of this work differ from previous findings by Lasso (2011) where the separation rate is the most important in Colombia. Results are contrasted with the obtained for France and United States to show that Colombian unemployment is of European nature but has United States’ features. |
| Keywords: | Job finding rate, separation rate, business cycle, unemployment |
| JEL: | J63 J64 E32 |
| Date: | 2015–10–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:013885&r=lab |
| By: | Reuben, Ernesto (Columbia University); Sapienza, Paola (Northwestern University); Zingales, Luigi (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | Important gender differences in earnings and career trajectories persist. Particularly, in professions such as business. Gender differences in competitiveness have been proposed as a potential explanation. Using an incentivized measure of competitiveness, this paper investigates whether competitiveness explains future gender differences in earnings and industry choice in a sample of high-ability MBA graduates. We find that competitive individuals earn 9% more than their less competitive counterparts do. Moreover, gender differences in competitiveness explain around 10% of the overall gender gap. We also find that competitive individuals are more likely to work in high-paying industries nine years later, which suggests that the relation between competitiveness and earnings persists in the long run. Lastly, we find that the competitiveness gap in industry emerges over time when MBAs and firms interact with each other. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, gender differences, competitiveness, business career |
| JEL: | J16 D81 D84 I21 C93 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9446&r=lab |
| By: | Barnichon, Régis; Garda, Paula |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead forecasts) for European countries. Moreover, the flow approach has the highest predictive ability during recessions and turning points, when unemployment forecasts are most valuable. |
| Keywords: | steady-state unemployment; stock-flow model |
| JEL: | E24 E27 J6 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10910&r=lab |
| By: | Farber, Henry S (Princeton University); Silverman, Dan (Arizona State University); Wachter, Till von (University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | We use an audit study approach to investigate how unemployment duration, age, and holding a low-level "interim" job affect the likelihood that experienced college- educated females applying for an administrative support job receive a callback from a potential employer. First, the results show no relationship between callback rates and the duration of unemployment. Second, workers age 50 and older are significantly less likely to receive a callback. Third, taking an interim job significantly reduces the likelihood of receiving a callback. Finally, employers who have higher callback rates respond less to observable differences across workers in determining whom to call back. We interpret these results in the context of a model of employer learning about applicant quality. |
| Keywords: | audit study, unemployment duration, interim job, age discrimination |
| JEL: | J64 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9465&r=lab |
| By: | Richard Freeman; Eunice Han; David Madland; Brendan V. Duke |
| Abstract: | This paper examines unionism’s relationship to the size of the middle class and its relationship to intergenerational mobility. We use the PSID 1985 and 2011 files to examine the change in the share of workers in a middle-income group (defined by persons having incomes within 50% of the median) and use a shift-share decomposition to explore how the decline of unionism contributes to the shrinking middle class. We also use the files to investigate the correlation between parents’ union status and the incomes of their children. Additionally, we use federal income tax data to examine the geographical correlation between union density and intergenerational mobility. We find: 1) union workers are disproportionately in the middle-income group or above, and some reach middle-income status due to the union wage premium; 2) the offspring of union parents have higher incomes than the offspring of otherwise comparable non-union parents, especially when the parents are low-skilled; 3) offspring from communities with higher union density have higher average incomes relative to their parents compared to offspring from communities with lower union density. These findings show a strong, though not necessarily causal, link between unions, the middle class, and intergenerational mobility. |
| JEL: | J31 J51 J62 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21638&r=lab |
| By: | Manacorda, Marco (Queen Mary, University of London); Rosati, Furio C. (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Ranzani, Marco (World Bank); Dachille, Giuseppe (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses micro data from the ILO-STWT surveys to provide novel evidence on the duration, end point and determinants of the transition from school to work in a sample of 23 low and middle-income countries around the world. The negative effects of low levels of human capital and high levels of population growth on job finding rates, seems to be at least in part offset by widespread poverty and lack of unemployment insurance, leading to overall faster transitions in low income economies compared to middle income economies. By lowering reservation wages and speeding transitions these latter forces lead overall to worse matches, as measured by the probability of attaining stable employment in the long-run. |
| Keywords: | transition duration, hazard model, unemployment, developing countries |
| JEL: | J64 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9456&r=lab |
| By: | Borjas, George J. (Harvard University); Kauppinen, Ilpo (VATT, Helsinki); Poutvaara, Panu (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | We show that the Roy model has more precise predictions about the self‐selection of migrants than previously realized. The same conditions that have been shown to result in positive or negative selection in terms of expected earnings also imply a stochastic dominance relationship between the earnings distributions of migrants and non-migrants. We use the Danish full population administrative data to test the predictions. We find strong evidence of positive self‐selection of emigrants in terms of pre-emigration earnings: the income distribution for the migrants almost stochastically dominates the distribution for the non‐migrants. This result is not driven by immigration policies in destination countries. Decomposing the self‐selection in total earnings into self‐selection in observable characteristics and self‐selection in unobservable characteristics reveals that unobserved abilities play the dominant role. |
| Keywords: | international migration, Roy model, self-selection |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9434&r=lab |
| By: | Cockx, Bart (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effectiveness of contracting out mandatory publicly provided counselling and training for long-term unemployed in Flanders (Belgium) to private for-profit and non-profit organisations (FPOs and NPOs). A multivariate transition model exploits timing-of-events and novel exclusion restrictions to account for selection on unobservables. Overall, the intervention was highly effective in reducing unemployment duration, but also spurred employment instability and withdrawals from the labour force. FPOs slightly, but significantly enhanced exits to employment without reinforcing recidivism relative to the public provider but not significantly relative to NPOs. FPOs also charged lower prices and hence were the best performing providers. |
| Keywords: | contracting out of employment services, non-profit versus profit, private provision of public services, timing-of-events, long-term unemployment |
| JEL: | C21 C41 C53 H44 J64 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9459&r=lab |
| By: | Alan Barreca; Olivier Deschenes; Melanie Guldi |
| Abstract: | Dynamic adjustments could be a useful strategy for mitigating the costs of acute environmental shocks when timing is not a strictly binding constraint. To investigate whether such adjustments could apply to fertility, we estimate the effects of temperature shocks on birth rates in the United States between 1931 and 2010. Our innovative approach allows for presumably random variation in the distribution of daily temperatures to affect birth rates up to 24 months into the future. We find that additional days above 80 °F cause a large decline in birth rates approximately 8 to 10 months later. The initial decline is followed by a partial rebound in births over the next few months implying that populations can mitigate the fertility cost of temperature shocks by shifting conception month. This dynamic adjustment helps explain the observed decline in birth rates during the spring and subsequent increase during the summer. The lack of a full rebound suggests that increased temperatures due to climate change may reduce population growth rates in the coming century. As an added cost, climate change will shift even more births to the summer months when third trimester exposure to dangerously high temperatures increases. Based on our analysis of historical changes in the temperature-fertility relationship, we conclude air conditioning could be used to substantially offset the fertility costs of climate change. |
| JEL: | I12 J13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21681&r=lab |
| By: | Lehmann, Robert; Weyh, Antje (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2014. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-ofsample exercises, we find that for most of the European states considered, the survey-based indicator model outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Arbeitsmarktprognose, Prognoseverfahren, Arbeitsmarktforschung, Meinungsforschung, Befragung, Datengewinnung, Prognosegenauigkeit, Erwartung, Arbeitsplatzsicherheit, Arbeitsmarktrisiko, Arbeitsmarktindikatoren, Europa, Österreich, Belgien, Bulgarien, Tschechische Republik, Estland, Finnland, Frankreich, Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Ungarn, Italien, Niederlande, Portugal, Slowakei, Schweden, Großbritannien |
| JEL: | E27 J00 J49 |
| Date: | 2015–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201530&r=lab |