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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Liu, Kai (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | I address the causes of the gender wage gap with a new dynamic model of wage, hours, and job changes that permits me to decompose the gap into a portion due to gender differences in preferences for part-time work and in onstraints. The dynamic model allows the differences in constraints to reflect possible gender differences in job arrival rates, job destruction rates, the mean and variance of the wage offer distribution, and the full-time/part-time wage premium. I find that the differences in preferences explain no more than 5% of the gender gap in hourly wages and 7-20% of the gender gap in weekly wages. The differences in constraints, mainly in the form of differences in the mean offered wages, explain the remaining gender wage gap. Most of the gender differences in employment, hours of work and job turnover can be attributed to the differences in preferences. |
| Keywords: | Gender differences; employment; |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2012–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2012_015&r=lab |
| By: | Adrienne M. Lucas (Department of Economics, University of Delaware); Isaac M. Mbiti (Department of Economics, Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the Kenyan Free Primary Education program on student participation, sorting, and achievement on the primary school exit examination. Exploiting variation in pre-program dropout rates between districts, we find that the program increased the number of students who completed primary school, spurred private school entry, and increased access for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. We argue that the program was welfare enhancing as it promoted educational access without substantially reducing the test scores of students who would have been in school in the absence of the program. |
| Keywords: | Schooling, Free Primary Education, Kenya, Achievement |
| JEL: | I2 O15 H52 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dlw:wpaper:12-10.&r=lab |
| By: | Carsten Helm (University of Oldenburg); Dominique Demougin (European Business School at the EBS University, Wiesbaden) |
| Abstract: | Several European countries have reformed their labor market institutions. Incentive effects of unemployment benefits have been an important aspect of these reforms. We analyse this issue in a principal-agent model, higher level of unemployment benefits improves the workers' position in wage bargaining, leading to stronger effort incentives and higher output. However, it also reduces incentives for labor market participation. Accordingly, there is a trade-off. We analyze how changes in the economic environment such as globalization and better educated workers affect this trade-off. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment benefits, incentive contracts, Nash bargaining, moral hazard, globalization |
| JEL: | J65 D82 J41 E24 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:wpaper:348&r=lab |
| By: | Stephanie Riegg Cellini; Latika Chaudhary |
| Abstract: | A lengthy literature estimating the returns to education has largely ignored the for-profit sector. In this paper, we offer some of the first causal estimates of the earnings gains to for-profit colleges. We rely on restricted-use data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) to implement an individual fixed effects estimation strategy that allows us to control for time-invariant unobservable characteristics of students. We find that students who enroll in associate’s degree programs in for-profit colleges experience earnings gains between 6 and 8 percent, although a 95 percent confidence interval suggests a range from -2.7 to 17.6 percent. These gains cannot be shown to be different from those of students in public community colleges. Students who complete associate’s degrees in for-profit institutions earn around 22 percent, or 11 percent per year, and we find some evidence that this figure is higher than the returns experienced by public sector graduates. Our findings suggest that degree completion is an important determinant of for-profit quality and student success. |
| JEL: | I2 I20 I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18343&r=lab |
| By: | Sahin, Aysegul; Song, Joseph; Topa, Giorgio; Violante, Giovanni L |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in U.S. unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies, JOLTS and HWOL, a new database covering the universe of onlineU.S. job advertisements. Mismatch across industries and occupations explains at most 1/3 of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate, whereas geographical mismatch plays no apparent role. The share of the rise in unemployment explained by occupational mismatch is increasing in the education level. |
| Keywords: | great recession; mismatch; unemployment; vacancies |
| JEL: | E3 J2 J6 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9093&r=lab |
| By: | Anna Piil Damm (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | Using survey information about characteristics of personal contacts linked with administrative register information on employment status one year later, I show that unemployed survey respondents with many employed acquaintances have a higher job finding rate. Settlement in a socially deprived neighborhood may, therefore, hamper individual labor market outcomes because of lack of employed contacts. I investigate this hypothesis by exploiting a unique natural experiment that occurred between 1986 and 1998 when refugee immigrants to Denmark were assigned to municipalities quasi-randomly, which successfully addresses the methodological problem of endogenous neighborhood selection. Taking account of location sorting, living in a socially deprived neighborhood does not affect labor market outcomes of refugee men. Furthermore, their labor market outcomes are not affected by the overall employment rate of men living in the neighborhood, but positively affected by the employment rate of non-Western immigrant men and co-national men living in the neighborhood. This is strong evidence that immigrants find jobs in part through their employed immigrant and co-ethnic contacts in the neighborhood of residence and that a high quality of contacts increases the individual's employment chances and annual earnings. |
| Keywords: | Residential job search networks, referral, contacts, neighborhood quality, labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | J60 J31 R30 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nor:wpaper:2012025&r=lab |
| By: | Bashir, Sajitha; Luque, Javier |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the evolution in socio-economic and ethnic disparities in tertiary education attainment, participation, and completion and labor market outcomes in the six countries of Central America. There is evidence of differential progress, with Costa Rica, a middle-income country, and Nicaragua, a low-income country, having improved participation of low-income students in tertiary education, while this continues to be negligible in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. Wide differentials in salaries linked to socio-economic background can signal differences in the quality of tertiary education or prior educational experiences. The analysis distinguishes between long-term and short-term constraints and the key transitions in the education cycle that impede access to tertiary education. The main obstacle to accessing tertiary education for poor students is the failure to either start or complete secondary education, suggesting different priorities for different countries in addressing long-term constraints. However, problems also arise within tertiary education, as in all countries the average tertiary education completion rate is below 50 percent, with even lower rates for students from low-income families and indigenous backgrounds. The paper uses an OECD framework for public policies for promoting equity in tertiary education to assess policies in Central American countries and concludes that many of them currently lack the policies, instruments, and institutional mechanisms to promote greater equity in tertiary education. The paper highlights how valuable insights can be obtained from analysis of household survey data in the absence of comprehensive data on tertiary education which is typical of many developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Access&Equity in Basic Education,Tertiary Education,Teaching and Learning,Gender and Education,Education For All |
| Date: | 2012–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6180&r=lab |
| By: | Pipit Pitriyan; Adiatma Y.M Siregar (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University) |
| Abstract: | The presence of Labor Unions is expected to provide a higher bargaining power for its members so that the rights of workers can be better acknowledged. In Indonesia, presently, the role of unions is more highlighted in the determination of the minimum wage. This study aims to estimate the the role of labor union on wage determination of Indonesia’s labor intensive manufacturing sector and whether wage differentials occurs among labor union member/non-member of Indonesia’s labor intensive manufacturing sector. Using the SAKERNAS 2007 data, the wage equation concludes that being a labor union member, is associated with higher wage payment received and wage differential between union and union members occurs. Meanwhile, Oaxaca Blinder Decomposition results show us that the wage differential between union and non-union is not negligible, particularly in automotive sector. |
| Keywords: | Wage, labor union, manufacturing |
| JEL: | J3 J5 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:201203&r=lab |
| By: | Herrera, Santiago; Badr, Karim |
| Abstract: | This paper describes stylized facts about internal migration and the labor force in Egypt, and shows how internal migration in the country is low compared with international standards. Using aggregate labor force survey data, the paper shows how individuals migrate to governorates with higher wages. With a Mincerian equation, the analysis finds that migrants earn premiums with respect to non-migrants, except for those migrants with low education levels. The aggregate labor statistics reveal lower unemployment rates among migrants, a phenomenon that is verified by an employment equation. According to the econometric results, migrants are more likely to be employed, even after controlling for other observable individual characteristics. Finally, the paper estimates a Probit model for the decision to migrate, finding that more educated individuals are more likely to migrate, agricultural workers have a lower probability of migrating, and individuals from governorates in which food production for own consumption is higher are less likely to migrate. These results suggest that low educational attainment and the"food problem", which ties resources to food production to meet subsistence requirements, are at the root of low migration in Egypt. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement,Human Migrations&Resettlements,Anthropology,Gender and Development |
| Date: | 2012–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6166&r=lab |
| By: | Michael Kind; Jan Kleibrink |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of parenthood timing on future wages. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we employ an instrumental variable approach to identify the causal effect of delaying parenthood on wages of mothers and fathers. Consistent with previous studies, we provide evidence for a positive delaying effect on wages. We further study the underlying mechanisms of the wage premium, paying particular attention to the relationship between career stage and fertility timing. We find that delaying parenthood by one additional year during the career implies a wage premium of 7%. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Wage Differentials; Career Path |
| JEL: | J13 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp467&r=lab |
| By: | Xiaoming Cai (VU University Amsterdam); Pieter A. Gautier (VU University Amsterdam); Makoto Watanabe (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | An advantage of collective wage agreement is that search and business-stealing externalities can be internalized. A disadvantage is that it takes more time before an optimal allocation is reached because more productive firms (for a particular worker type) can no longer signal this by posting higher wages. Specifically, we consider a search model with two sided heterogeneity and on-the-job search. We compare the most favorable case of a collective wage agreement (i.e. the wage that a planner would choose under the constraint that all firms in a sector-ocupation cell must offer the same wage) with the case without collective wage agreement. We find that collective wage agreements are never desirable if firms can commit ex ante to a wage and only desirable if firms cannot commit and the relative efficiency of on the job search to off- the job search is less than 20%. This result is hardly sensitive to the bargaining power of workers. Empirically we find both for the Netherlands and the US that this value is closer to 50%. |
| Keywords: | Collective wage agreements; on-the-job search; efficiency |
| JEL: | E24 J62 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2012–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20120086&r=lab |
| By: | Faccini, Renato (Queen Mary, University of London); Rosazza Bondibene, Chiara (NIESR and Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | Using publicly available data for a group of 20 OECD countries, we find that the cyclical volatility of the unemployment rate exhibits substantial cross-country and time variation. We then investigate empirically whether labour market institutions can account for this observed heterogeneity and find that the impact of various institutions on cyclical unemployment dynamics is quantitatively strong and statistically significant. The hypothesis that labour market institutions could increase the volatility of unemployment by reducing match surplus is not supported by the data. In fact, unemployment benefits, taxation and employment protection appear to reduce the volatility of unemployment rates. In addition, we find that the precise nature of union bargaining has important implications for cyclical unemployment dynamics, with union coverage and density having large and offsetting effects. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that interactions between shocks and institutions matter for cyclical unemployment fluctuations. However, institutions only account for about one quarter of the explained variation, which implies that they are important but they are not the entire story. |
| Keywords: | Labour market institutions; labour market fluctuations |
| JEL: | E32 E60 J01 J08 |
| Date: | 2012–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0461&r=lab |
| By: | Fasih, Tazeen; Kingdon, Geeta; Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Sakellariou, Chris; Soderbom, Mans |
| Abstract: | Since the development of human capital theory, countless estimates of the economic benefits of investing in education for the individual have been published. While it is a universal fact that in all countries of the world the more education one has the higher his or her earnings, it is nevertheless important to know the empirical returns to schooling. However, simply knowing average returns is not useful in a world of heterogeneity. This paper finds increasing returns going from the lower to the higher end of the earnings distribution, but with some important differences across regions. The returns increase by quantile for Latin America. The returns decrease by quantile for most East Asian countries, producing an overall equalizing effect. India and Pakistan demonstrate opposite results. In Ghana, the returns across the distribution are flat, while for Kenya and Tanzania education is dis-equalizing. |
| Keywords: | Education For All,Access&Equity in Basic Education,Primary Education,Teaching and Learning,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2012–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6170&r=lab |
| By: | Kaja Høiseth Brugård and Torberg Falch (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between education and crime. We exploit Norwegian register data on skills at the end of compulsory education at age 16, high school attainment, and detailed imprisonment data. We find that skills, as measured by GPA, have a strong diminishing effect on imprisonment. The result is robust to a range of model specifications, including school and neighborhood fixed effects and IV-estimations using the result from the external exit examination as an instrument for skills. The relationship is nonlinear and driven by individuals with skills below average. Even though there is a strong relationship between GPA and high school attainment, this does not seem to be the main mechanism for the effect of GPA on imprisonment. This result is also robust to a range of model specifications. |
| Date: | 2012–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:13212&r=lab |
| By: | Philipp M. Lersch |
| Abstract: | Chances are high that partners in dual-earner couples do not receive equal occupational returns from long-distance moves, because job opportunities are distributed heterogeneously in space. Which partners are more likely to receive relatively higher returns after moves? Recent research shows the stratification of returns by gender and highlights the importance of gender roles in mobility decisions. I extend past literature in two ways. First, while past research mostly examined partners separately, I directly test for gender differences in matched pairs of women and men in dual-earner couples and account for the nonindependence of both careers. Second, I compare evidence from the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany to shed light on the effects of institutional and normative contexts. For my analysis, I draw longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (1991-2008). My results show that women in dual-earner couples are temporarily adversely affected in their careers by long-distance moves in the UK and West Germany after controlling for various characteristics of both partners. Women in East Germany are not affected by long-distance moves. Moves do not change wage rates significantly for women and men that stay in employment in both countries. |
| Keywords: | Residential mobility, gender inequalities, cross-national comparison, actor-partner interdependence model |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp469&r=lab |
| By: | Frank M. Fossen; Tobias J.M. Büttner |
| Abstract: | We assess the relevance of formal education for the productivity of the self-employed and distinguish between opportunity entrepreneurs, who voluntarily pursue a business opportunity, and necessity entrepreneurs, who lack alternative employment options. We expect differences in the returns to education between these groups because of different levels of control. We use the German Socio-economic Panel and account for the endogeneity of education and non-random selection. The results indicate that the returns to a year of education for opportunity entrepreneurs are 3.5 percentage points higher than the paid employees' rate of 8.1%, but 6.5 percentage points lower for necessity entrepreneurs. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, opportunity, necessity, entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 I20 L26 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1241&r=lab |
| By: | Heers, M.; Van Klaveren, C.; Groot, W. and Maassen van den Brink, H. |
| Abstract: | Dropout prevention is highly ranked on the political agenda in many countries. It remains unclear, however, how dropout can be eectively reduced, as many different factors are determining student dropout. Community schools recognize this and modernize education such that it better accommodates students' personal needs. As a result these schools cooperate more with external organizations, stimulate parental involvement in the educational process and organize more extra-curricular activities. Despite the increasing number of community schools, there is no empirical evidence that these schools reduce student dropout. This study examines the impact of Dutch community schools on student dropout. It focuses in particular on pre-vocational education, because dropout is particularly high in this educational track. Moreover, the focus is on the city of Rotterdam because this city is a forerunner in the Netherlands in establishing community schools. Unique registration data are used on all Rotterdam students who were enrolled in pre-vocational education between 2004 and 2008. The impact of community schools is identied by exploiting the fact that community schools were created not before the beginning of the school year 2006/2007. This enables us to estimate the community school impact by means of a dierence-in-dierences estimation model combined with an iterative matching approach. The estimation results suggest that community schools are as effective as regular schools with respect to dropout reduction. Community school subsidies do not seem to contribute to reducing dropout. |
| Keywords: | Dropout; community schools; pre-vocational education; difference-in-differences; matching |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tir:wpaper:45&r=lab |
| By: | Temel Taskin |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we incorporate home production into a quantitative model of unemployment and show that realistic levels of home production have a signifi- cant impact on the optimal unemployment insurance rate. Motivated by recently documented empirical facts, we augment an incomplete markets model of unem- ployment with a home production technology, which allows unemployed workers to use their extra non-market time as partial insurance against the drop in income due to unemployment. In the benchmark model, we find that the optimal replacement rate in the presence of home production is roughly 40% of wages, which is 40% lower than the no home production model’s optimal replacement rate of 65%. The 40% optimal rate is also close to the estimated rate in practice. The fact that home production makes a significant difference in the optimal unemployment insurance rate is robust to a variety of parameterizations and alternative model environments. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment insurance, home production, incomplete markets, self-insurance |
| JEL: | D13 E21 J65 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1220&r=lab |
| By: | Lokshin, Boris (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG, and School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University); Mohnen, Pierre (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG, and School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the Dutch R&D tax incentive scheme on the wages of R&D workers. We construct firm specific R&D tax credit rates that vary over time following variations in the Dutch R&D tax incentive program. Using instrumental variables we estimate a wage-sharing model with an unbalanced firm-level panel data covering the period 1997-2004. The elasticity of the R&D wage with respect to the fraction of the wage supported by the fiscal incentives scheme is estimated at 0.2 in the short run and 0.24 in the long run. |
| Keywords: | O32, O38, H25, J30, C23 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2012058&r=lab |
| By: | Rud, I.; Van Klaveren, C.; Groot, W. and Maassen van den Brink, H. |
| Abstract: | The empirical literature on education and crime suggests that both criminal behavior and educational attainment are transferred from parents to children. However, the impact of criminal involvement of parents on educational outcomes of children tends to be ignored, even though the entailed social costs may be substantial. This study examines the effects of parents‟ criminal involvement on the educational attainment of their children. A multinomial probit model is applied in combination with a Mahalanobis matching approach to identify this effect. The findings suggest that having criminally involved parents: (1) increases the probability of only finishing primary education by 8 percentage points, and (2) decreases the probability of having a higher education degree by 13 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | Educational attainment, Criminal involvement, Intergenerational effects |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tir:wpaper:44&r=lab |
| By: | Andrea Filippo Presbitero (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, MoFiR); Matteo G. Richiardi (Universit… di Torino, LABOR); Alessia Amighini (Universit… del Piemonte Orientale, SEMeQ) |
| Abstract: | We test whether labor flexibility acts as a substitute to delocalization. Using Italian survey data, we show that a higher share of temporary workers appears to reduce the likelihood of future offshoring. However, once reverse causality and spurious correlation are controlled for with IV techniques, the relationship vanishes. This finding suggests that the threat of delocalization to win support for further labor market reforms is probably misplaced. |
| Keywords: | cost saving, delocalization, labor flexibility, labor market reforms, offshoring, temporary work |
| JEL: | F16 F23 J21 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wmofir:72&r=lab |
| By: | Hernaes, Erik (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Markussen, Simen (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Piggott, John (ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research); Vestad, Ola (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between retirement and mortality, using a unique administrative data set covering the full population of Norway. We make use of a series of retirement policy changes in Norway, which reduced the retirement age for a group of workers but not for others. By employing a difference-in-differences framework based on monthly birth cohort and treatment group status we first establish that the early retirement program significantly reduced the retirement age – this remains true when we account for program substitution, for example into the disability pension. Using instrumental variables estimation we find that retirement age has no effect on mortality. |
| Keywords: | Retirement age; Mortality; Instrumental variables; Policy evaluation |
| JEL: | H55 I10 J11 J26 |
| Date: | 2012–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:osloec:2012_019&r=lab |
| By: | Laszlo Goerke; Markus Pannenberg |
| Abstract: | In 1996, statutory sick pay was reduced for private sector workers in Germany. Using the empirical observation that trade union members are dismissed less often than non-members, we construct a model to predict how absence behaviour will respond to the sick pay reform. We show that union members may have stronger incentives to be absent and to react to the cut in sick pay. In the empirical investigation, we find a positive relationship between trade union membership and absence due to sickness and observe more pronounced reactions to the cut in sick pay among union members than among non-members. These findings suggest that more flexibility in the use of paid absence due to sickness constitutes a private gain from trade union membership. |
| Keywords: | Difference-in-differences, sickness-related absence, Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), statutory sick pay, trade union membership |
| JEL: | I18 J51 J22 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp470&r=lab |
| By: | Van Klaveren, C.; De Witte, K. |
| Abstract: | Schools frequently increase instructional time to improve students' numeric and reading performance, but there is little evidence on the effectiveness of such an increase. This study evaluates 'Playing for Success', an extended day program for underachieving pupils that uses the football environment as a motivating force. Primary school pupils with low motivation and self-esteem are offered practical and sports related teaching content for 30 additional hours. The program is evaluated using a randomized controlled field experiment. The results indicate that Playing for Success does not signicantly improve math and reading performance of primary school students. |
| Keywords: | Achievement; Child Development; Evaluation; Motivation; Extended School Day. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tir:wpaper:43&r=lab |
| By: | Nguyen, Viet Cuong; Pham, Minh Thai |
| Abstract: | This paper examine the difference in wages between migrants and non-migrants (native workers) in large cities in Vietnam. It is found that migrants receive substantially lower wages than non-migrants. The wage gap tends to be larger for older migrants. However, once observed demographic characteristics of workers are controlled, there is no difference in wages between migrants and non-migrants. The main difference in observed wages between migrants and non-migrants is explained by differences in age and education between migrants and non-migrants. |
| Keywords: | Migration; underpaid; decomposition; household survey; Vietnam |
| JEL: | E24 O15 |
| Date: | 2012–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40765&r=lab |
| By: | Zeynel Abidin Özdemir (Gazi University); Mehmet Balcýlar (Eastern Mediterranean University); Aysýt Tansel (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the structural breaks are an important characteristic of the monthly labor force participation rate (LFPR) series of Australia, Canada and the USA. Therefore we allow for endogenously determined multiple structural breaks in the empirical specifications of fractionally integrated ARMA model. The findings indicate that contrary to the previous research the LFPRs of Australia, Canada and the USA are stationary implying that the informational value of the unemployment rates about the behavior of labor markets and the causes of joblessness are useful. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2012/67&r=lab |
| By: | John Cawley; David Frisvold; Chad Meyerhoefer |
| Abstract: | In response to the dramatic rise in childhood obesity, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and other organizations have advocated increasing the time that elementary school children spend in physical education (PE) classes. However, little is known about the effect of PE on child weight. This paper measures that effect by instrumenting for child PE time with state policies, using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K) for 1998-2004. Results from IV models indicate that PE lowers BMI z-score and reduces the probability of obesity among 5th graders (in particular, boys), while the instrument is insufficiently powerful to reliably estimate effects for younger children. This represents some of the first evidence of a causal effect of PE on youth obesity, and thus offers at least some support to the assumptions behind the CDC recommendations. We find no evidence that increased PE time crowds out time in academic courses or has spillovers to achievement test scores. |
| JEL: | H75 I12 I18 I21 K32 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18341&r=lab |
| By: | Marty McGuigan; Sandra McNally; Gill Wyness |
| Abstract: | University fees have recently trebled in England and there are fears that many young people may be put off from participating in further and higher education - especially those from low income backgrounds. This could exacerbate inequalities that are already very stark in the UK. In this paper, we investigate students' knowledge and their receptiveness to information campaigns about the costs and benefits of staying on in education. We design an 'information campaign' that gives some simple facts about economic and financial aspects of educational decisions and test students' response to this campaign. The fieldwork for our information campaign took place over the period in which the trebling of university fees was announced. This was widely reported in the media, so we also test receptiveness to the surrounding media campaign. The analysis shows evidence of large gaps in students' knowledge, which are influenced both by the information campaign and media reporting about the increase of tuition fees. However, the latter greatly increased the perception of going to university as 'too expensive' - especially among low income groups. Our experiment shows that simple information campaigns can help to mitigate this negative impact on attitudes. |
| Keywords: | tuition fees, information campaign, educational decisions |
| JEL: | I2 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:ceedps:0139&r=lab |
| By: | Yelena Takhtamanova; Eva Sierminska |
| Abstract: | The recession the United States economy entered in December of 2007 is considered to be the most severe downturn the country has experienced since the Great Depression. In this paper we decompose the changes in the unemployment rate by examining worker ows into and out of unemployment during the last four recessions in the United States with a special focus on the industry groups. Since the most recent economic downturn has been triggered by the collapse of the housing market, we are interested in looking at the industries that are most affected by the housing market weakness (such as construction and finance, insurance and real estate). In addition to documenting and comparing industry experiences and industry contributions to the aggregate unemployment rate changes, we attempt to evaluate the relative importance of cyclical and structural forces driving industry-specific unemployment rate changes. This question is of importance to policymakers as cyclical and structural changes call for different policy responses. We use publicly available data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Three series are necessary to compute the unemployment inow and outow rates by industry: the number of unemployed, the unemployment rate and the number of short-term unemployed (those unemployed for less than 5 weeks). These series for the broadest industry classification are available from BLS, but only from 2000. We obtain data that goes back beyond 2000 and reclassify according the BLS guidelines. Our task is complicated by the change in industry classification of the CPS in 1983 and 2003 and the 1994 re-design of the CPS survey. We extend our data further back and look at a finer disaggregation, which allows us to make comparisons previously not possible. We find that construction, manufacturing and services were the three industries that contributed the most to the aggregate unemployment rate increase during the most recent downturn. However, the burden of unemployment was not evenly distributed across these industries: while the contribution of construction and manufacturing by far exceeded their share in the labor force, the opposite is the case for services. During the recovery, construction and manufacturing are strong "drivers" of the unemployment rate decline, but services are not. In terms of job ows, the dramatic decline in the job finding probability was the main source of the recessionary unemployment rate increase. In particular, the decline in job finding probability in services, manufacturing, construction and wholesale and retail trade were large contributors. It is the lack of strong recovery in job finding probability that seems to be holding unemployment rate from declining more rapidly during the recovery. Services and public administration stand out as sectors that provided relief in the past recoveries, but are not doing so this time around. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, Worker Flows, Job Finding Rate, Separation Rate, Industry, Occupation |
| JEL: | J1 J6 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1233&r=lab |
| By: | Liu, Kai (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Sørensen, Erik Ø. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | We show that cyclical skill mismatch, defined as mismatch between the skills supplied by college graduates and skills demanded by hiring industries, is an important mechanism behind persistent career loss from graduating in recessions. Using Norwegian data, we find a strong countercyclical pattern of skill mismatch among college graduates. Initial labor market conditions have a declining but persistent effect on the probability of mismatch early in their careers. We provide a simple model of industry mobility that is consistent with our empirical findings. The initially mismatched graduates are also more vulnerable to business cycle variations at the time of graduation. |
| Keywords: | Skill mismatch; business cycles |
| JEL: | E32 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2012–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2012_016&r=lab |
| By: | Tito Boeri; Pietro Garibaldi; Espen R. Moen |
| Abstract: | The recent financial crises, alongside a dramatic rise in unemployment on both sides of the Atlantic, suggest that financial shocks do translate into the labor markets. In this paper we first document that financial recessions amplify labor market volatility and Okun's elasticity over the business cycle. Second, we highlight a key mechanisms linking financial shocks to job destruction, presenting and solving a simple model of labor market search and endogenous finance. While finance increases job creation and net output in normal times, it also augments their aggregate response in the aftermath of a financial shock. Third, we present evidence coherent with the idea that more leveraged sectors experience larger employment volatility during financial recessions. Theoretically, the job destruction effect of finance works as follows. Leveraged firms may find them- selves in a position in which their liquidity is suddenly called back by the lender. This has direct consequences on a firm ability to run and manage e xisting jobs. As a result, firms may be obliged to shut down part of their operations and destroy existing jobs. We argue that with well developed capital markets, firms will have an incentive to rely more on liquidity, and in normal times deep capital markets lead to tight labor markets. After an adverse liquidity shock, firms that rely much on liquidity, are hit disproportionally hard. This may explain why the unemployment rate in the US during the Great Recession increased more than in European countries experiencing larger output losses. Empirically, the paper uses a variety of datasets to test the implications of the model. At first we identify crises that, just like in the model, caused a sudden reduction of liquidity to firms. Next we draw on sector-level data on employment and leverage in a number of OECD countries at quarterly frequencies to assess whether highly leveraged equilibria originate more employment adjustment under financial recessions. We find that highly leveraged sectors and periods are associated with higher employment-to-output elasticities during banking crises and this effect explains the observation of higher Okun's elasticities during financial recessions. We also argue that the effect of leverage on employment adjustment can be interpreted as a causal effect, if our identification assumptions are considered plausible. All this amounts essentially for a test of the labor demand channel of adjustment. keywords: credit squeeze,matching,leverage JEL codes: G01,J23,J63 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:451&r=lab |
| By: | John Gibson (University of Waikato); David L. Anderson (Queen's University); John Tressler (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | The ranking of an academic journal is important to authors, universities, journal publishers and research funders. Rankings are gaining prominence as countries adopt regular research assessment exercises that especially reward publication in high impact journals. Yet even within a rankings-oriented discipline like economics there is no agreement on how aggressively lower ranked journals are down-weighted and in how wide is the universe of journals considered. Moreover, since it is typically less costly for authors to cite superfluous references, whether of their own volition or prompted by editors, than it is to ignore relevant ones, rankings based on citations may be easily manipulated. In contrast, when the merits of publication in one journal or another are debated during hiring, promotion and salary decisions, the evaluators are choosing over actions with costly consequences. We therefore look to the academic labor market, using data on economists in the University of California system to relate their lifetime publications in 700 different academic journals to salary. We test amongst various sets of journal rankings, and publication discount rates, to see which are most congruent with the returns implied by the academic labor market. |
| Keywords: | journal rankings; academic labor market |
| JEL: | A14 I23 |
| Date: | 2012–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:12/10&r=lab |
| By: | B. Michael Gilroy (University of Paderborn); Mark Schopf (University of Paderborn); Anastasia Semenova (University of Paderborn) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the effects of implementing a basic income on the labor supply side. The German welfare as well as tax and social contributions system are investigated. The results clarify that the abolishment of the so-called unemployment trap due to a basic income policy is a decisive advantage of this approach. In order to demonstrate possible labor supply side reactions to a basic income policy, we use the neoclassical labor supply model and adapt it for our purposes. We compare the effects of implementing a basic income on different types of employees concerning their consumption preferences. We show that, even in the neoclassical labor supply model without intrinsic work motivation, the basic income increases the participation rate in the labor market. Furthermore, current employees are partially incited to increase their labor supply. Therefore, a basic income would not only reduce unemployment but could also expand the magnitude of employment. |
| Keywords: | Basic Income, Neoclassical Labor Supply, Unemployment Trap |
| JEL: | J2 J6 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:wpaper:54&r=lab |
| By: | Miguel Sánchez Romero (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Joze Sambt; Alexia Prskawetz (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of recent pension reforms for the development of the social security system and economic growth in Austria. We use a computable general equilibrium model that is built up of overlapping generations that differ by their household structure, longevity, educational attainment, and capital accumulation. Each household optimally decides over its consumption paths, work effort, and retirement age according to the life-cycle theory of labor, while they face survival risk. We find that the pension reforms implemented from 2000 to 2004, although in the correct direction, are not sufficient to solve the labor market distortion caused by the Austrian PAYG pension system. Using alternative policy options, our simulations indicate that a change to a notional defined contribution system and an increase in the educational distribution of the work force would increase the incentive for later retirement ages and thereby increase labor supply and economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Austria, ageing, retirement, social security |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-026&r=lab |
| By: | Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Terry Ward |
| Abstract: | The recent economic downturnThe decline in GDP during the recession has been concentrated in manufacturing and construction and triggered significant (though smaller) declines in basic services (distribution, hotels and restaurants, and transport). The decline in manufacturing production was particularly strong in Germany, while in Spain and Ireland as well as the Baltic states there was a pronounced decline in construction, which had expanded markedly in these countries over the years preceding the recession. Just as in previous economic downturns in the EU, the recent recession has hit investment goods industries (including construction) much harder than consumer goods industries, essentially because investment can be postponed in a way that consumption cannot; nevertheless, within the latter, the production of durable goods – which are similar to investment goods in this respect – was hit hard as well.The effect on employment of the downturn differed markedly among sectors and countries according to the strength of the measures adopted both by employers and governments to preserve jobs, but also according to expectations about the pace and scale of recovery and the sustainability of the previous pattern of growth. Although average hours worked declined significantly in manufacturing during the worst period of the recession in 2009, supported by measures to preserve jobs in many countries, since then there has been a widespread increase, reflecting the reluctance of employers to take on workers in the context of a hesitant recovery and the uncertainty of longer-term prospects. Just as the recession disproportionately affected industry, so too the recovery was in its initial stages stimulated by an upturn in manufacturing as demand for investment and durable goods picked up. This was especially the case for chemicals and motor vehicles where output began to recover strongly in the latter part of 2009 and during 2010. Value-added in industry grew by 6% between 2009 and 2010 in the EU as a whole, considerably more than in other parts of the economy (in construction, value-added continued to decline). In those sectors where most efforts have been made to preserve jobs – in the engineering industries and motor vehicles in particular – labour productivity at the beginning of 2011 was below the level before the onset of recession in a number of countries. This could dampen the rate of job creation as and when recovery takes place since it implies that output could be increased without any immediate need to expand employment.Employment trends in selected sectors results from analysis of long-term developmentsEmployment is strongly related to changes in value-added, though an increase in value-added tends to be partly met by productivity growth as well as by employing more people. Similarly, a fall in value-added tends to be associated with a decline in productivity growth as well as a decline in employment, though lags in adjustment may delay the latter.The relationship between employment and real wages tends to be significant in manufacturing, where increases in real wages tend to reduce the growth of employment; this is not the case in services. In the UK, as in the US, real wages tend to adjust more quickly to changes in labour demand than in Germany and France, suggesting that labour markets are more flexible in the former countries.There is an inverse relationship between average hours worked and the number employed, indicating in general that the more hours people work, the smaller the number employed and vice versa, so that adjustments in working time has an important effect on jobs.Investment in ICT has positive and significant effects on employment in manufacturing, probably working through improvements in productivity. The opposite is the case in services, suggesting that the increasing use of ICT tends to reduce employment. After a shock, it takes up to three years for employment to return to trend levels in France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands. In the other countries, the pace of adjustment is faster, at only one-and-a-half to two years on average. Changes in the composition of employmentOver the recession period from 2007 to 2010, the share of jobs filled by women continued to increase across the EU. This, however, reflects the large job losses in manufacturing and construction where few women are employed. In most sectors, even in services, the share of jobs filled by women declined.The share of jobs filled by workers aged 55 and over has increased in most parts of the EU over the past ten years, reflecting a tendency for older people to remain longer in work. This continued to be the case over the recession period, unlike during previous periods of economic downturn when early retirement has been a major means of reducing work forces. The main group hit by the present crisis are the young below the age of 25.The proportion of the work force with tertiary education increased in all sectors over the years leading up to the recession; the same is true for the share of employment accounted for by managers and professionals. Both trends have continued over the recession period.There has been a shift from full-time to part-time jobs over the recession period, which may reflect uncertainty among employers over future prospects as well as the pursuit of more flexible organization of work.Employment experience in previous economic downturns There are some differences between previous periods of downturn in those sectors in which employment was most affected. In all periods, however, employment continued to expand in business services and hotels and restaurants. Economic crises were predominantly weathered by adjustments in hours worked to preserve jobs and the know-how of the work force, thus limiting the costs of re-employment and training. This tendency was strongest in the 1970s, moderate in the 1980s and mixed in the 1990s. Value-added was generally more volatile than the number employed and hours worked. During the three periods of economic downturn, value-added grew only in business services. The largest losses were observed in machinery and equipment, basic metals and construction in all three periods.Sectoral interdependenciesFor each job created by an increase in final demand in a particular sector, there are between 1.4 and 2.3 additional jobs created in the economy as a whole. Employment multipliers are highest in manufacturing (especially in chemicals, electrical equipment and transport equipment) and are lowest in services, which need fewer inputs from other sectors. Domestic employment multipliers tend to have remained broadly unchanged over the past 15 years or so whereas international employment multipliers (the effect of growth in one country on employment in others) have increased markedly, reflecting the growing importance of production networks and international integration.Employment creation in services is mainly a domestic process, whereas within manufacturing, job creation takes place internationally (particularly in textiles, chemicals and electrical equipment and transport equipment).Growth of demand in the EU tends to lead to significant employment creation in other countries, reflecting the increase in imports that it results in. This is particularly so with respect to electrical equipment, textiles and chemicals, though it is also the case for each of those that growth of demand increases employment not only in the Member State in which it occurs but also in other parts of the EU.Measures taken to support employment during the crisisMeasures to counter the effect of the recession on employment were implemented in all Member States. However, those were mainly general; relatively few responses were sector-specific, such as car scrapping schemes, which were introduced in a number of countries, and cuts in value-added tax on hotels and restaurants (in Ireland and France). But there has been a decentralization of pay bargaining to company level in some sectors in some countries (such as in basic metals or chemicals in Germany). Many countries introduced expansionary fiscal policies to stimulate demand as well as short-time working arrangements (mainly concentrated in manufacturing). In a number of countries, there has been an expansion of training and work experience programmes, recruitment incentive schemes for employers hiring new workers, support to business start-ups, measures to increase access to credit, pay freezes and more flexible working arrangements, all designed to increase employment. Young people, who have been severely affected by the recession and the lack of job creation, have been a particular target for government support, in the form of subsidized employment schemes, work placement programmes, work experience or training guarantees and intensified job search assistance. |
| Keywords: | employment effects of crisis, sectoral employment, economic downturns and sectoral labour demand, policy reactions |
| JEL: | E24 J08 J21 J23 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:379&r=lab |
| By: | Gaaitzen De Vries; Neil Foster (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the link between international outsourcing – or offshoring – and the skill structure of labour demand for a sample of 40 countries over the period 1995 2009. The paper uses data from the recently compiled World-Input-Output-Database (WIOD) to estimate a system of variable factor demand equations. These data allow us to exploit both a cross-country and cross-industry dimension and split employment into three skill categories. Our results indicate that while offshoring has impacted negatively upon all skill levels, the largest impacts have been observed for medium-skilled (and to a lesser extent high-skilled) workers. Such results are consistent with recent evidence indicating that medium-skilled workers have suffered to a greater extent than other skill types in recent years. |
| Keywords: | offshoring, trade, wages, labour demand |
| JEL: | F14 J31 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:86&r=lab |
| By: | Nir Jaimovich; Henry E. Siu |
| Abstract: | Job polarization refers to the recent disappearance of employment in occupations in the middle of the skill distribution. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions, despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, job polarization is not a gradual process; essentially all of the job loss in middle-skill occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate are accounted for by jobless recoveries in the middle-skill occupations that are disappearing. |
| JEL: | E0 J0 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18334&r=lab |
| By: | Bengtsson, Ola (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Hand, John R. M. (University of North Carolina Chapel Hill) |
| Abstract: | Despite the central role played by human capital in entrepreneurship, little is known about how employees in entrepreneurial firms are compensated and incentivized. We address this gap in the literature by studying 18,935 non-CEO compensation contracts across 1,809 privately-held venture-backed companies. Our key finding is that employee compensation varies with the degree to which VCs versus founders control the business. We show that relative to founder-controlled firms, VC-controlled firms pay their hired-on (i.e., non-founder) employees higher cash salaries, provide stronger cash and equity incentives, and have more formal pay policies in place. We also observe that founder employees earn less cash pay and face weaker cash incentives than do hired-on employees, but have stronger equity incentives. We propose that the compensation differences we identify arise because the preferences and capabilities of controlling shareholders significantly influence the quality of the human capital attracted and retained by the firm. |
| Keywords: | Venture capital; Entrepreneurship; Compensation contracts |
| JEL: | G24 J31 L26 |
| Date: | 2012–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0922&r=lab |
| By: | Ohinata, A.; Ours, J.C. van (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Abstract: We analyze the determinants of reading literacy, mathematical skills and science skills of young immigrant children in the Netherlands. We find that these are affected by age at immigration and whether or not one of the parents is native Dutch. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant children;educational attainment. |
| JEL: | I21 J15 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2012067&r=lab |
| By: | Maarten Klaveren (AIAS, Universiteit van Amsterdam); Kea Tijdens (AIAS / FEB, Universiteit van Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | *The story of the metal and electrical engineering collective agreement* The current collective labour agreement covering the Dutch metal and electrical engineering industry dates as of 1985, when the earlier agreement was divided in an agreement for firms with 31 or more employees (the ‘large metal industry’) and for smaller firms (the ‘small metal industry’). We concentrate on the first one, called in Dutch CAO Metaal/Elektrotechnische industrie, currently covering about 150,000 employees. In the 1980s, this agreement remained the wage leader in the Dutch industrial relations like its predecessor had been before, but in the 1990s the collective agreement gradually lost its leadership; the collective agreement for banking, soon to be split up in agreements for the various large banks, took over. Most recently, while wage increases remained slightly higher in the CAO Metaal/Elektrotechnische industrie, the small metal industry contained more innovative elements. Major explanations may be found in the heavy international competition to which large parts of ‘large metal’ were exposed, in the fact that small metal firms seem more inclined to negotiate integrative elements, in particular concerning training, with the trade unions, and a remarkably successful strike mobilisation of the union membership in small firms. ... |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aia:indrnl:2011-1&r=lab |
| By: | Sarah Holly; Alwine Mohnen |
| Abstract: | To examine the influence of working hours on employees’ satisfaction, this article uses a large, representative set of panel data from German households (GSOEP). The results show that high working hours and overtime in general do not lead to decreased satisfaction. Rather, increasing working hours and overtime have positive effects on life and job satisfaction, whereas the desire to reduce working hours has a negative impact on satisfaction. In 2009, nearly 60% of employees wanted to reduce their working hours. The overall number of hours by which employees want to reduce their working time is driven mainly by overtime compensation. |
| Keywords: | Satisfaction, overtime, work–life balance, working hours, working time arrangements |
| JEL: | J22 J28 J81 M12 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp465&r=lab |
| By: | Peter Huber (WIFO); Harald Oberhofer; Michael Pfaffermayr (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that applying simple employment-weighted OLS estimation to Davis – Haltiwanger – Schuh (1996) firm level job creation rates taking the values 2 and –2 for entering and exiting firms, respectively, provides biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. Consequently, we argue that entries and exits should be analysed separately and propose an alternative, consistent estimation procedure assuming that the size of continuing firms follows a lognormal distribution. A small-scale Monte Carlo analysis confirms the analytical results. Using a sample of Austrian firms, we demonstrate that the impact of small firms on net job creation is substantially underestimated when applying employment-weighted OLS estimation. |
| Keywords: | Job creation, DHS growth rate, firm size, firm age, Monte Carlo simulation |
| Date: | 2012–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2012:i:435&r=lab |
| By: | Cory Koedel (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia); Mark Ehlert (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia); Eric Parsons (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia); Michael Podgursky (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia) |
| Abstract: | The specifics of how growth models should be constructed and used to evaluate schools and teachers is a topic of lively policy debate in states and school districts nationwide. In this paper we take up the question of model choice and examine three competing approaches. The first approach, reflected in the popular student growth percentiles (SGPs) framework, eschews all controls for student covariates and schooling environments. The second approach, typically associated with value-added models (VAMs), controls for student background characteristics and aims to identify the causal effects of schools and teachers. The third approach, also VAM-based, fully levels the playing field so that the correlation between school- and teacher-level growth measures and student demographics is essentially zero. We argue that the third approach is the most desirable for use in educational evaluation systems. Our case rests on personnel economics, incentive-design theory, and the potential role that growth measures can play in improving instruction in K-12 schools. |
| Keywords: | Teacher evaluation, school evaluation, value-added models, value-added versus SGP |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2012–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:1210&r=lab |
| By: | Dario Diodato; Anet Weterings |
| Abstract: | Although increasing attention is paid to the resilience of regions to economic shocks, theoretical and empirical insights in the determinants of regional resilience are still limited. This paper aims to make a first step in quantifying regional resilience. Using a model, we explore how three regional factors jointly contribute to the resilience of regions to economic shocks: 1) the network of buyer-supplier relationships within and between regions, 2) the level of relatedness between industries, which facilitates intersectoral labor mobility and, 3) the geographical position of a region which determines the possibilities of commuting for workers. The supply network mainly determines the propagation of the shock, while possibilities for intersectoral and interregional labor mobility affect a regional economy’s capacity to recover from the shock. To illustrate the workings of the model, it is applied to the case of the Netherlands using data on buyer-supplier relationships within and between Dutch regions, as well as on intersectoral and interregional labour mobility. |
| Keywords: | regional resilience, input-output network, labor mobility, related labor flows, commuting flows, the Netherlands |
| JEL: | J61 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1215&r=lab |
| By: | Junge, Martin; Severgnini, Battista (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Sørensen, Anders (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the importance of the educational mix of employees at the rm level for the probability of rms being involved in innovation activities. We distinguish between four types of innovation: product, process, organisational, and marketing innovation. Moreover, we consider three di erent types of education for employees with at least 16 years of schooling: technical sciences, social sciences, and humanities. Furthermore, we examine the in uence of these di erent innovation activities on rm productivity. Using a rotating panel data sample of Danish rms, we nd that di erent types of innovations are related to distinct educational types. Moreover, we nd that rms that adopt product and marketing innovation are more productive than rms that adopt product innovation but not marketing innovation and rms that adopt marketing innovation but not product innovation. In addition, rms that adopt organisational and process innovation demonstrate greated productivity levels than forms that adopt organisational innovation but not process innovation that again demonstrate greater productivity than rms that do not adopt process innovation but not organisational innovation. Finally, we establish that product and marketing innovation as well as organisational and process innovation are complementary inputs using formal tests for supermodularity. Complementarity can be rejected for all other pairs of innovation types. |
| Keywords: | educational composition; human capital; innovation; productivity; complementarity |
| JEL: | D24 J24 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2012–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2012_002&r=lab |
| By: | Meltem Gulenay Chadwick; Gonul Sengul |
| Abstract: | We use linear regression models and Bayesian Model Averaging procedure to investigate whether Google search query data can improve the nowcast performance of the monthly nonagricultural unemployment rate for Turkey for the period from January 2005 to January 2012. We show that Google search query data is successful at nowcasting1 monthly nonagricultural unemployment rate for Turkey both in-sample and out-of-sample. When compared with a benchmark model, where we use only the lag values of the monthly unemployment rate, the best model contains Google search query data and it is 47.8 percent more accurate in-sample and 38.3 percent more accurate for the one month ahead nowcasts in terms of relative root mean square errors (RMSE). We also show via Harvey, Leybourne, and Newbold (1997) modification of the Diebold-Mariano test that models with Google search query data indeed perform statistically better than the benchmark. |
| Keywords: | Google Insights, nowcasting, nonagricultural unemployment rate, Bayesian model averaging |
| JEL: | C22 C53 E27 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1218&r=lab |
| By: | Cette, G.; Dromel, N.; Lecat, R.; Paret, A-C. |
| Abstract: | This analysis characterizes empirically how good labour relations can alleviate the negative impact on productivity of regulatory constraints or workforce opposition. Our evidence of good labour relations lies in the existence of binding collective agreements, at the firm or at the industry level. The estimations are based on a unique dataset collected by the Banque de France about the obstacles French firms may face in increasing their utilisation of production factors. Data are an unbalanced sample of 7,441 observations, corresponding to 1,545 companies, over the period 1991-2008. Our main results may be summarised as follows: i) ‘workforce or union opposition’ interacted with ‘regulatory constraints’ has a negative significant impact on total factor productivity (TFP). Regulatory constraints would become really binding when workers or unions use them as a tool to oppose management’s decisions; ii) ‘regulatory constraints’ interacted with ‘branch or firm agreement’ has a positive significant impact on TFP. These agreements, which can only be obtained if labour relations are supportive, would be used by firms to offset the negative impact of regulatory constraints. These results confirm that labour relations quality, at the branch or the firm levels, is an important factor of productive performance. |
| Keywords: | Labour relation, collective bargaining, trade unions, productivity. |
| JEL: | J53 J52 J51 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:389&r=lab |
| By: | Anna Kurowska; Michal Myck; Katharina Wrohlich |
| Abstract: | Microsimulation methods and models of labor market decisions have attracted a lot of attention as an approach to the assessment of consequences of family related policies in the area of labor market and fertility. We set these models in the context of relevant demographic theories and present them from the point of view of their potential as tool to guide effective policy making with the aim to reconcile the objectives of increasing female participation and fertility and reducing poverty levels among families with children. |
| Keywords: | microsimulation, labor supply, fertility, evidence-based policy |
| JEL: | J22 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1234&r=lab |
| By: | Markus M. Grabka; Ursina Kuhn |
| Abstract: | This paper presents and compares trends in income inequality in Switzerland and Germany from 2000 to 2009 using harmonized data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and the Swiss Household Panel (SHP). Whereas in Germany inequality has increased substantially during this period, in Switzerland inequality in market incomes has increased only marginally and inequality in disposable incomes has decreased slightly. Economic and demographic indicators suggest that labor market participation—but not economic growth, globalization, or sectoral change—are potential explanations. The decomposition of inequality reveals the effects of Germany’s slightly older population and smaller household sizes, as well as the impact of educational expansion and government redistribution. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, subgroup decomposition, income stratification, income mobility, SOEP, SHP |
| JEL: | I31 D31 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp464&r=lab |
| By: | Gorbanev, Mikhail |
| Abstract: | Over the last 77 years (from 1935), all 7 cyclical maximums of the solar activity overlapped closely with the US recessions, thus predicting (or triggering?) 8 out of 13 recessions officially identified by NBER (including one “double-deep” recession). Over the last 64 years (from 1948), all 6 maximums of the solar activity were preceded by minimums of the US unemployment rate, and the spikes in the unemployment rate followed with lags of 2-3 years. On the world scale, over the last 44 years (for which the data is available), all 4 maximums of the solar activity overlapped with minimums of the unemployment rate in the G7 countries, followed by its spikes within 2-3 years. From 1965, when consistent recession dating is available for all G7 countries, nearly 3/5 of the recessions started in the 3 years around and after the sunspot maximums. Was it a mere coincidence or a part of a broader pattern? This paper explores the correlation between the solar activity cycles (as measured by the number of sunspots on the sun surface) and the timing of recessions in the US and other economies. It finds out that the probability of recessions in G7 countries greatly increased around and after the solar maximums, suggesting that they can cause deterioration in business conditions and trigger recessions. This opens new approach for projecting recessions, which can be applied and tested with regard to the next solar maximum in 2013. Caution: This research is not in the “mainstream” of the economic thought. Read at your own risk! |
| Keywords: | unemployment; recession; business cycle; sunspot; solar cycle |
| JEL: | E32 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2012–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40271&r=lab |