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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Staubli, Stefan (University of St. Gallen); Zweimüller, Josef (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how an increase in the minimum retirement age affects the labor market behavior of older workers. Between 2000 and 2006 the Austrian government gradually increased the early retirement age from 60 to 62.2 for men and from 55 to 57.2 for women. Using administrative data on the universe of Austrian private-sector employees, the results from the empirical analysis suggest that this policy change reduced retirement by 19 percentage points among affected men and by 25 percentage points among affected women. The decline in retirement was accompanied by a sizeable increase in employment of 7 percentage points among men and 10 percentage points among women, but had also important spillover effects into the unemployment insurance program. Specifically, the unemployment rate increased by 10 percentage points among men and 11 percentage points among women. In contrast, the policy change had only a small impact on the share of individuals claiming disability or partial retirement benefits. |
| Keywords: | early retirement, retirement age, labor supply, policy reform |
| JEL: | J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5863&r=lab |
| By: | Longhi, Simonetta (ISER, University of Essex); Taylor, Mark (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | We use individual data for Great Britain over the period 1992-2009 to compare the probability that employed and unemployed job seekers find a job and the quality of the job they find. The job finding rate of unemployed job seekers is 50 percent higher than that of employed job seekers, and this difference remains even when controlling for differences in observable worker characteristics and job search behaviour. We present evidence suggesting that these differences in the job finding probability is caused by behavioural differences between employed and unemployed job seekers rather than differences in characteristics. Consistent with search theory, we find that employed job seekers are more selective in evaluating job offers and are therefore less likely to find a job offer acceptable; for example, they are less likely to accept low-wage and temporary jobs, or jobs that do not meet their working hour requirements. |
| Keywords: | on-the-job search, unemployment, job-finding rate |
| JEL: | J01 J20 J29 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5860&r=lab |
| By: | Goldmann, Gustave (University of Ottawa); Sweetman, Arthur (McMaster University); Warman, Casey (Queen's University) |
| Abstract: | The implications of human capital portability – including interactions between education, language skills and pre- and post-immigration occupational matching – for earnings are explored for new immigrants to Canada. Given the importance of occupation-specific skills, as a precursor we also investigate occupational mobility and observe convergence toward the occupational skill distribution of the domestic population, although four years after landing immigrants remain less likely have a high skilled job. Immigrants who are able to match their source and host country occupations obtain higher earnings. However, surprisingly, neither matching nor language skills have any impact on the return to pre-immigration work experience, which is observed to be statistically significantly negative. Crucially, English language skills are found to have an appreciable direct impact on earnings, and to mediate the return to pre-immigration education but not labour market experience. |
| Keywords: | immigration, human capital portability, occupation, language, education |
| JEL: | J24 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5851&r=lab |
| By: | James A. Levinsohn; Todd Pugatch |
| Abstract: | Recognizing that a credible estimate of a wage subsidy's impact requires a model of the labor market that itself generates high unemployment in equilibrium, we estimate a structural search model that incorporates both observed heterogeneity and measurement error in wages. Using the model to examine the impact of a wage subsidy, we find that a R1000/month wage subsidy paid to employers leads to an increase of R660 in mean accepted wages and a decrease of 15 percentage points in the share of youth experiencing long-term unemployment. |
| JEL: | J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17248&r=lab |
| By: | Atila Abdulkadiroglu; Joshua D. Angrist; Parag A. Pathak |
| Abstract: | Talented students compete fiercely for seats at Boston and New York exam schools. These schools are characterized by high levels of peer achievement and a demanding curriculum tailored to each district's highest achievers. While exam school students clearly do very well in school, the question of whether an exam school education adds value relative to a regular public education remains open. We estimate the causal effect of exam school attendance using a regression-discontinuity design, reporting both parametric and non-parametric estimates. We also develop a procedure that addresses the potential for confounding in regression-discontinuity designs with multiple, closely-spaced admissions cutoffs. The outcomes studied here include scores on state standardized achievement tests, PSAT and SAT participation and scores, and AP scores. Our estimates show little effect of exam school offers on most students' achievement in most grades. We use two-stage least squares to convert reduced form estimates of the effects of exam school offers into estimates of peer and tracking effects, arguing that these appear to be unimportant in this context. On the other hand, a Boston exam school education seems to have a modest effect on high school English scores for minority applicants. A small group of 9th grade applicants also appears to do better on SAT Reasoning. These localized gains notwithstanding, the intense competition for exam school seats does not appear to be justified by improved learning for a broad set of students. |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17264&r=lab |
| By: | Basu, Arnab K. (College of William and Mary); Chau, Nancy (Cornell University); Kanbur, Ravi (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | Two stylized representations are often found in the academic and policy literature on informality and formality in developing countries. The first is that the informal (or unregulated) sector is more competitive than the formal (or regulated) sector. The second is that contract enforcement is easier in the formal sector than in the informal sector, precisely because the formal sector comes under the purview of state regulation. The basic contention of this paper is that these two representations are not compatible with each other. We develop a search-theoretic model of contractual dualism in the labor market where the inability to commit to contracts in the informal sector leads to employer market power in equilibrium, while an enforced minimum wage in the formal sector provides employers with a commitment technology but which reduces their market power in equilibrium. The contributions of this paper are three-fold. It (i) provides the micro-underpinnings for endogenous determination of employer market power in the formal and informal sectors due to contractual dualism in the two sectors, (ii) offers a unified and coherent setup whereby a host of salient features of developing country labor markets can be explained together, and (iii) places the original Stiglerian prescription of the optimal (unemployment minimizing) minimum wage in the broader context of labor markets where formal job creation is costly, and where formal employment, informal employment, and unemployment co-exist. |
| Keywords: | contractual dualism, wage dualism, employer market power, informality |
| JEL: | J3 J6 O17 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5845&r=lab |
| By: | Nour, Samia (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Khartoum University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the rate of return to education in Sudan. One advantage and interesting element in our analysis in this paper is that we explain three stylised facts on the rate of return to education using new primary data in Sudan: first, positive but low rate of return to education and correlations between education, experience, its square and wages for men and women defined by gender, second, positive and significant rate of return to education and correlations between education, experience, its square and wages defined by firm size and industry at the micro level across industrial firms and third, an increase in skill levels and firm size leads to improved relationship between actual education, required education, experience, its square and wages at the micro level across industrial firms. Our paper is relevant and consistent with the recent growing interest in the literature that confirms the importance of investment in education and rate of return to education. Different from the Sudanese literature that estimates the return to human capital at the macro level, we investigate the rate of return to education using new primary data at the micro level. A novel element of our analysis is that we use new primary survey data at the micro level obtained from the university survey (2009) and the firm survey (2010), we present a new contribution and fill the gap in the Sudanese literature by estimating first the rate of return to education for men and women and explaining differences defined by gender and second for industrial firms and explaining differences defined by firm size and industry, since these issues are not adequately discussed in the Sudanese literature. Our findings indicate the importance of investment in education to facilitate enhancing educational attainment and improvement of the rate of return to education in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | Education, returns to education, gender, industry, Sudan |
| JEL: | J01 J16 J21 J24 J31 I21 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2011033&r=lab |
| By: | Liu, Hong (Central University of Finance and Economics); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | Beginning in the mid 1990s, China sped up its urban labor market reform and drastically restructured its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which resulted in massive layoff of the SOEs' workers and a high unemployment rate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the parents’ job loss on the health of their children, using six waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey covering the period from 1991 to 2006. We find that paternal job loss has a significant negative effect on children's health, whilst maternal job loss has no significant effect. The rationale behind the findings is that the income loss resulting from maternal job loss is much smaller; at the same time, the unemployed mothers are likely to increase the time they devote to care of their children, and this may alleviate the negative effect resulting from maternal job loss. Our findings are robust to various specifications. |
| Keywords: | children’s health, job loss, Grossman’s model, China |
| JEL: | I12 J63 N35 J13 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5846&r=lab |
| By: | Gaëlle Ferrant (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Yannick Bourquin (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence that local social interactions within etnic groups may explain the puzzling variations in labour-market outcomes across individuals. Peer effects work first by creating pressure on labor-market participation, second, by conveying information about job opportunities and by raising wages. These effects differ through a selection effect : gender and ethnic groups who are less integrated in the labour market benefit more from peer effect. Finally, networks exhibit decreasing returns. The problems of endogeneity and simultaneity of local peer effects are addressed by using (i) data aggregated at the province level, (ii) the distribution of the sex of the peers' siblings as an instrumental variable and (iii) a quasi-panel data approach relying on the Hausman-Taylor estimator. The importance of social interactions in the labour market suggests that a social multiplier exists and our estimates show that any labour-market shock is magnified with an elasticity of 0.5. |
| Keywords: | Peer efects, development economics, labour, South Africa. |
| JEL: | J15 J16 O18 Z13 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:11044&r=lab |
| By: | Andrew Figura |
| Abstract: | I examine whether the cyclical behavior of unemployment has changed over the post WWII period. Specifically, I test whether cyclical movements in unemployment have become more persistent. Finding that they have, indeed, become more persistent, I then take some initial steps in explaining why. I find that the increase in persistence has affected private nonfarm payroll employment as well as unemployment and that increased persistence appears to be widespread across industries. At the same time, increased persistence owes primarily to greater persistence in job finding rates and greater persistence in unemployment among permanent job losers. This combination suggests that the welfare loss from cyclical increases in unemployment is becoming increasingly concentrated among permanent job losers who become unemployed for extended durations during cyclical downturns. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-33&r=lab |
| By: | Lorraine Dearden (Institute for Fiscal Studies, 7 Ridgmount Street, London, WC1E 7AE; Institute of Education, University of London, 20 Bedford Way, London WC1H 0AL, UK.); John Micklewright (Depatment of Quantitative Social Science - Institute of Education, University of London.); Anna Vignoles (Department of Quantitative Social Science, Institute of Education, University of London. 20 Bedford Way, London WC1H 0AL, UK.) |
| Abstract: | 'League table' information on school effectiveness in England generally relies on either a comparison of the average outcomes of pupils by school, e.g. mean exam scores, or on estimates of the average value added by each school. These approaches assume that the information parents and policy-makers need most to judge school effectiveness is the average achievement level or gain in a particular school. Yet schools can be differentially effective for children with differing levels of prior attainment. We present evidence on the extent of differential effectiveness in English secondary schools, and find that even the most conservative estimate suggests that around one quarter of schools in England are differentially effective for students of differing prior ability levels. This affects an even larger proportion of children as larger schools are more likely to be differentially effective. |
| Keywords: | school effectiveness, school choice, value added, England |
| JEL: | I2 |
| Date: | 2011–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:1106&r=lab |
| By: | Chassamboulli, Andri; Palivos, Theodore |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of immigration on the host country within a search and matching model that allows for skill heterogeneity, endogenous skill acquisition, differential search cost between immigrants and natives, capital-skill complementarity and different degree of substitutability between unskilled natives and immigrants. Within such a framework, we find that although immigration raises the overall welfare,it may have distributional effects. Specifically, skilled workers gain in terms of both employment and wages. Unskilled workers, on the other hand, gain in terms of employment but may lose in terms of wages. Nevertheless, in one version of the model, where unskilled workers and immigrants are imperfect substitutes, we find that even the unskilled wage may rise. These results accommodate conflicting empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | Search; Unemployment; Immigration; Skill-heterogeneity |
| JEL: | F22 J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32379&r=lab |
| By: | Kaygusuz, Remzi |
| Abstract: | In the past decades, elimination of the pay-as-you-go system in U.S. has been extensively discussed and studied. Such an elimination would also eliminate the intra-cohort redistribution done by the following policies of social security. Due to spousal and survivor's benefit provisions, the system redistributes (mostly) to single-earner married households (not necessarily progressive). Retirement benefits are a concave function of past mean earnings. Hence, the system redistributes from high earners to low earners. Finally, the existence of a cap on social security taxable earnings makes the system regressive. This is the first paper that quantifies redistributive, labor supply, and welfare implications of these policies using a general equilibrium life-cycle model. Agents start out as permanently married or single and with education levels and wage profiles, where the latter depend both on education and gender. The household is the decision maker and decides on the labor supply of its member(s) and saving. The aggregate production function has as inputs capital and labor aggregated by efficiency. Elimination of these policies results in a 6.1% increase in married female labor force participation rate. The middle-income single-earner married households experience the largest welfare losses whereas the high-income two-earner households together with high-income single households experience the largest welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | Social Security; Two-earner households; Labor Force Participation |
| JEL: | E62 H55 H31 J12 |
| Date: | 2011–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32358&r=lab |
| By: | Tara Béteille; Demetra Kalogrides; Susanna Loeb |
| Abstract: | More than one out of every five principals leaves their school each year. In some cases, these career changes are driven by the choices of district leadership. In other cases, principals initiate the move, often demonstrating preferences to work in schools with higher achieving students from more advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds. Principals often use schools with many poor or low-achieving students as stepping stones to what they view as more desirable assignments. We use longitudinal data from one large urban school district to study the relationship between principal turnover and school outcomes. We find that principal turnover is, on average, detrimental to school performance. Frequent turnover of school leadership results in lower teacher retention and lower student achievement gains. Leadership changes are particularly harmful for high poverty schools, low-achieving schools, and schools with many inexperienced teachers. These schools not only suffer from high rates of principal turnover but are also unable to attract experienced successors. The negative effect of leadership changes can be mitigated when vacancies are filled by individuals with prior experience leading other schools. However, the majority of new principals in high poverty and low-performing schools lack prior leadership experience and leave when more attractive positions become available in other schools. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17243&r=lab |
| By: | Olivier Joseph (Céreq); Séverine Lemière (IUT Paris Descartes et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Laurence Lizé (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Patrick Rousset (Céreq) |
| Abstract: | This research focuses on individuals who consider they have been victims of discrimination. The aim is to look at the feeling of discrimination and to assess its effects on career paths seven years after leaving school. Taking data from the Class of 98 (Génération 98) survey by the Céreq, we used the method for grouping self-organising maps (Kohonen's algorithm), supplemented by an econometric analysis to distinguish eight major classes of career paths. In parallel, an interview survey was conducted. The results show a segmentation of career paths at two levels. On the one hand, young people of foreign origin who experienced discrimination are over-represented in certain paths, characterised by unemployment, temping or precarious work (inter- class segmentation). On the other hand, strong inequalities exist within those paths which provide rapid access to stabe employment, as persons obtain lower-quality jobs (intra-class segmentation). |
| Keywords: | Labor economics,segmentation, discrimination, youth, France. |
| JEL: | J71 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:11041&r=lab |
| By: | Haan, Peter (DIW Berlin); Prowse, Victoria L. (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | How can public pension systems be reformed to ensure fiscal stability in the face of increasing life expectancy? To address this pressing open question in public finance, we estimate a life-cycle model in which the optimal employment, retirement and consumption decisions of forward-looking individuals depend, inter alia, on life expectancy and the design of the public pension system. We calculate that, in the case of Germany, the fiscal consequences of the 6.4 year increase in age 65 life expectancy anticipated to occur over the 40 years that separate the 1942 and 1982 birth cohorts can be offset by either an increase of 4.34 years in the full pensionable age or a cut of 37.7% in the per-year value of public pension benefits. Of these two distinct policy approaches to coping with the fiscal consequences of improving longevity, increasing the full pensionable age generates the largest responses in labor supply and retirement behavior. |
| Keywords: | life expectancy, public pension reform, retirement, employment, life-cycle models, consumption, tax and transfer system |
| JEL: | D91 J11 J22 J26 J64 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5858&r=lab |
| By: | Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Yuksel, Mutlu (Dalhousie University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides causal evidence on long-term consequences of Jewish expulsions in Nazi Germany on the educational attainment and political outcomes of German children. We combine a unique city-level dataset on the fraction of Jewish population residing in Germany before the Nazi Regime with individual survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Our identification strategy exploits the plausibly exogenous city-by-cohort variation in the Jewish population in Germany as a unique quasi-experiment. We find that the persecution of Jewish professionals had significant, long-lasting detrimental effects on the human capital and political development of Germans who were at school-age during the Nazi Regime. First, these children have 0.4 fewer years of schooling on average in adulthood. Second, these children are less likely to go to college or have a graduate degree. Third, they are less likely to have interest in politics as adults. These results survive using alternative samples and specifications, including controlling for Second World War, Nazi and Communist Party support and unemployment effects. |
| Keywords: | human capital formation, dismissal, Jewish professionals, political development |
| JEL: | I21 I12 J24 N34 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5850&r=lab |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have indicated that densely populated cities enhance the productivity of workers through knowledge spillover and superior matching with employers in the labor market. This paper quantitatively analyzes the relationship among urban density, human capital, and wages by using micro data from the <i>Basic Survey on Wage Structure</i> for the years from 1990 to 2009. According to the estimation of standard wage functions augmented with population density, the agglomeration premium is larger for workers with higher observable skills such as education, tenure, and potential experience, which suggests rapid learning and superior matching in densely populated cities. Under structural changes such as a declining population and the trend toward a knowledge-based service economy, forming densely populated areas by facilitating the migration of workers has desirable effects throughout Japan on both individual wages and firm productivity. |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:11060&r=lab |
| By: | Datta Gupta, Nabanita (Aarhus School of Business); Simonsen, Marianne (University of Aarhus) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates pre-teenage effects of the choice of type of non-parental child care at age three (preschool relative to more informal family day care). We exploit a Danish panel data child survey merged with administrative records along with a pseudo-experiment that generates variation in the take-up of preschool across municipalities. As outcomes, we consider measures of overall and risky behavior in addition to objective and self-evaluated abilities. We find no strong evidence that one type of non-parental care outperforms the other, though children who have been placed in preschool tend to like school better. |
| Keywords: | child care, skills, risky behaviors, evaluation |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5848&r=lab |
| By: | Alicia H. Munnell; Jean-Pierre Aubry; Josh Hurwitz; Laura Quinby |
| Abstract: | State and local pensions have been headline news since the 2008 financial collapse reduced the value of their assets, leaving a substantial unfunded liability. The deterioration in the funded status of these plans raised pension costs at the same time that the ensuing recession wreaked havoc with state and local budgets. Legislatures across the country have responded by reducing pension benefits – primarily for new employees – and increasing employer and employee contributions. As part of that process, governors in several states have launched initiatives to curb collective bargaining in the public sector. One possible implication is that governors view unions as responsible for pushing up state and local pension benefits. This brief identifies the impact of public sector unions and other factors on benefit levels, wages, and employment. The brief is organized as follows. The first section summarizes what is known about pensions, wages, workers, and unionization in the public sector. The second section reports on a series of empirical exercises to determine the role of unions in explaining public pensions and wages. The results show that unions have no measurable effect on plan generosity or rate of growth in pension benefits, but do have a quantifiable impact on wage levels and perhaps number of workers. The third section presents a possible reason for this outcome. Public sector pensions are legislated, not bargained, so the articulateness and acumen of the lobbyists may be more important than the number of union members; in contrast, wages are bargained and union strength could have a more direct effect. The final section concludes that this area is ripe for further research because the results appear to contradict the general perception of commentators and politicians. |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ibslp19&r=lab |
| By: | Darwin Cortés, Juan Gallego, Darío Maldonado |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT We investigate the effect of education Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) on teenage pregnancy. Our main concern is with how the size and sign of the effect may depend on the design of the program. Using a simple model we show that an education CCT that conditions renewal on school performance reduces teenage pregnancy; the program can increase teenage pregnancy if it does not condition on school performance. Then, using an original data base, we estimate the causal impact on teenage pregnancy of two education CCTs implemented in Bogotá (Subsidio Educativo, SE, and Familias en Acción, FA); both programs differ particularly on whether school success is a condition for renewal or not. We show that SE has negative average effect on teenage pregnancy while FA has a null average effect. We also Find that SE has either null or no effect for adolescents in all age and grade groups while FA has positive, null or negative effects for adolescents in different age and grade groups. Since SE conditions renewal on school success and FA does not, we can argue that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of our model and that conditioning renewal of the subsidy on school success crucially determines the eect of the subsidy on teenage pregnancy. |
| Date: | 2011–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:008828&r=lab |
| By: | Drydakis, Nick (University of Patras) |
| Abstract: | By utilizing the 2008 Athens Area Study (AAS) data set, this study investigates four aspects of job satisfaction – total pay, promotion prospects, respect received from one’s supervisor, and total job satisfaction – between healthy and heath-impaired employees. Health impaired employees are found to be less satisfied according to all job satisfaction measures even when a large number of productivity features, and job characteristics are controlled for. The outcomes suggest also that women are more satisfied with their jobs than men are, regardless of health status. Moreover, the estimations show that health impaired employees' job satisfaction is affected more than healthy employees' job satisfaction by adverse mental health symptoms (life dissatisfaction). Finally, health impaired employees are found to become more satisfied with their jobs with time after disability onset. The study concludes that health impaired employees may have higher expectations about what they will obtain from their work, and that they may have job satisfaction adjustments. |
| Keywords: | two-step quasi-likelihood exogeneity test, health impairments, job satisfaction, ordered probit model, switching regression model |
| JEL: | J10 J28 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5849&r=lab |
| By: | Elke Schaffland |
| Abstract: | Brazil has experienced a substantial amount of change in the last few years. Some of the changes in development policy have led to decreases in poverty and inequality. For example, conditional cash transfers were one of the most widespread poverty-alleviation programs in Brazil becoming one of the biggest programs of this kind in the world. These transfers give grants to eligible poor families to allow increased consumption in the short-term while building human capital through requirements for school attendance and health care. Given these goals, it is important to evaluate the effect of these transfers on human capital. This paper discusses two methodologies for the evaluation of programs’ effect on education: Regression Discontinuity Design and Propensity Score Matching (PSM). Using PSM we find that the probability of school enrollment rises by around 4 percentage points for children of families that receive the transfers. Our results also point to a positive impact on school attendance; recipients miss around less school over a two month period than families without the transfers. However, the dimension of the programs effect differs between age groups; the program has a greater impact on younger children than on older ones. |
| Keywords: | conditional cash transfers; propensity score matching; education |
| Date: | 2011–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:084&r=lab |
| By: | Roberto Bande (University of Santiago and IDEGA); Marika Karanassou (Queen Mary, University of London and IZA) |
| Abstract: | On both theoretical and empirical grounds, this paper provides evidence that refutes the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) hypothesis as an explanation of the evolution of regional disparities in the unemployment rate. We first present our analytical framework, which follows the chain reaction theory (CRT) of unemployment and argues that (i) a system of interactive labour market equations, rather than a single-equation unemployment rate model, is better equipped to accommodate unemployment dynamics, and (ii) due to the interplay of frictions and growth in labour markets, the NRU ceases to be an attractor of the unemployment rate time path. We then provide evidence that the Spanish economy is characterised by large and persistent disparities in the regional unemployment rates. Through standard kernel density tecnhiques, we demonstrate the existence of marked differences between two groups of high and low unemployment regions that remain stable in their composition through time. Finally, we review our empirical labour market model for each group of regions and evaluate the corresponding natural rates. Our findings confirm that the evolution of regional disparities cannot be attributed to disparities in the natural rates, given that these, although different, do not act as an attractor of unemployment. Thus, the NRUs offer little help in the formulation of labour market policies. |
| Keywords: | Regional unemployment, Disparities, Kernel, Natural rate, Frictional growth |
| JEL: | R23 J64 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp681&r=lab |
| By: | Nilsen, Øivind Anti (Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)); Raknerud, Arvid (Statistics Norway); Skjerpen, Terje (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | A model for matched data with two types of unobserved heterogeneity is considered – one related to the observation unit, the other to units to which the observation units are matched. One or both of the unobserved components are assumed to be random. This mixed model allows identification of the effect of time-invariant variables on the observation units. Applying the Helmert transformation to reduce dimensionality simplifies the computational problem substantially. The framework has many potential applications; we apply it to wage modeling. Using Norwegian manufacturing data shows that the assumption with respect to the two types of heterogeneity affects the estimate of the return to education considerably. |
| Keywords: | matched employer-employee data, high-dimensional two-way unobserved components, ECM-algorithm |
| JEL: | C23 C81 J31 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5847&r=lab |
| By: | Aleksander Kucel; Montserrat Vilalta-Bufi; Peter Robert (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Using crosssection data from the REFLEX/HEGESCO surveys, this paper explores the likelihood of educationjob mismatch in Central and Eastern Europe. We classify countries in two groups according to the signaling strength of their educational credentials: the occupational labor market group (Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia) and the internal labor market group (Hungary, Lithuania and Estonia). We analyze three types of mismatch: the vertical mismatch (under/overeducation), horizontal mismatch (inadequacy of the field of study) and, finally, skills mismatch. We are particularly interested in studying how fields of study and individual competencies affect mismatch in the labor market in these economies. Results indicate that fields of study and individual competencies both significantly affect the likelihood of various types of mismatch. There are important differences between occupational and internal labor market structures in terms of mismatch determinants. |
| Keywords: | competencies, educationlabor mismatch, occupational labor market, fields of study, eastern europe, internal labor market, overeducation |
| JEL: | I28 J44 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bar:bedcje:2011259&r=lab |
| By: | Gautier, Pieter (VU University Amsterdam); Holzner, Christian (Ifo Institute for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | When workers send applications to vacancies they create a network. Frictions arise because workers typically do not know where other workers apply to and firms do not know which candidates other firms consider. The first coordination friction affects network formation, while the second coordination friction affects network clearing. We show that those frictions and the wage mechanism are in general not independent. The wage mechanism determines both the distribution of networks that can arise and the number of matches on a given network. Equilibria that exhibit wage dispersion are inefficient in terms of network formation. Under complete recall (firms can go back and forth between all their candidates) only wage mechanisms that allow for ex post Bertrand competition generate the maximum matching on a realized network. |
| Keywords: | efficiency, network clearing, random bipartite network formation, simultaneous search |
| JEL: | D83 D85 E24 J64 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5859&r=lab |
| By: | Stefan Groot; Henri de Groot |
| Abstract: | <p>Using detailed micro data on the entire wage distribution in the Netherlands, this paper examines trends in Dutch (real pre-tax) wage inequality between 2000 and 2008. </p><p>For many years, the Netherlands has been considered an exception to the general trend of growing wage inequality that most OECD countries have experienced since the 1980s. This OECD trend is generally explained by increasing relative demand for skilled labour due to skill biased technological progress and – to a lesser extent – by globalization.</p><p>Using detailed micro data on the entire wage distribution in the Netherlands, this paper examines trends in Dutch (real pre-tax) wage inequality between 2000 and 2008. We show that the aggregate flatness of the distribution hides dynamics between different groups and regions. We find that inequality, after correcting for observed worker characteristics, decreased somewhat at the lower half of the wage distribution, while increasing slightly at most of the upper half (both before and after correcting for differences in human capital). Residual wage inequality is high and increasing in most larger cities, which is in line with recent evidence on the increasing importance of agglomeration externalities.</p> |
| JEL: | D31 E24 J31 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:186&r=lab |
| By: | Stefan Groot; Henri de Groot |
| Abstract: | <p>Based on micro-data on individual workers for the period 2000–2005, we show that regional wage differentials in the Netherlands are small but present. </p><p>A large part of these differentials can be attributed to individual characteristics of workers. Remaining effects are partially explained by variations in employment density, with an elasticity of about 3.8 percent and by Marshall-Arrow-Romer externalities, where doubling the share of a (2-digit NACE) industry results in a 2.4 percent higher productivity.</p><p>We find evidence for a negative effect of competition (associated with Porter externalities) and diversity (associated with Jacobs externalities).</p> |
| JEL: | J24 O12 R11 R23 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:184&r=lab |
| By: | Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont |
| Abstract: | Unemployment is usually explained with reference to the equilibrium of supply and demand in the labour market. This approach rests on specific behavioral assumptions that are formally expressed as axioms. The standard set of axioms is replaced in the present paper by a set of structural axioms. This approach yields the objective determinants of employment. They consist of effective demand, the actual outcome of price formation, structural stress as determined by the heterogeneity within the business sector and the income distribution. Sudden changes of employment are effected by latent relative switchers that are hard to spot empirically. |
| Keywords: | New framework of concepts; Structure-centric; Axiom set; Full employment; Employment–profit ratio trade-off; Causality; Economic law; Historical specificity; Latent relative switcher |
| JEL: | E24 E21 |
| Date: | 2011–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32257&r=lab |
| By: | Francine D. Blau; Lawrence M. Kahn |
| Abstract: | We use Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics data and data from a 2008 telephone survey of adults conducted by Westat for the Princeton Data Improvement Initiative (PDII) to explore the importance and feasibility of adding retrospective questions about actual work experience to cross-sectional data sets. We demonstrate that having such actual experience data is important for analyzing women’s post-school human capital accumulation, residual wage inequality, and the gender pay gap. Further, our PDII survey results show that it is feasible to collect actual experience data in cross-sectional telephone surveys like the March Current Population Survey annual supplement. |
| JEL: | C81 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17241&r=lab |
| By: | Nour, Samia (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Khartoum University) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the education, training and skill development policies in Sudan using a combination of new secondary and primary data. A novel element in our paper is that we use new primary macro and micro (firm) surveys data to discuss and compare the macro and micro perspectives concerning policies implemented to improve skill upgrading through enhancing the educational system, provision of training and transfer of knowledge. Different from the Sudanese literature, an interesting element in our analysis is that we discuss both the supply and demand sides of educational policies and we provide a more comprehensive analysis by explaining the low commitment to the standardised international adequacy, equity and efficiency criterion related to the supply and demand sides of education and training policies in Sudan. We provide a new contribution and fill important gap in the Sudanese literature by explaining that the regional disparity in the demand for education (share in enrolment in education) is most probably due to economic reasons (per capita income and poverty rate), demographic reasons (share in total population) and other reasons (degree of urbanization) in Sudan. We find that the increase in the incidence of high poverty rate and low per capita income seem to be the most important factor limiting the demand for education, notably, the demand for primary education, especially for females in Sudan. The major policy implication from our findings is that poverty eradication is key for the achievement of universal access to primary education and gender equality and therefore, fulfillment of the second and third United Nations Millennium Development Goals in Sudan by 2015. We recommend further efforts to be made to improve quality, increase firm commitment to the standardised international adequacy, equity and efficiency criterion in the provision of education and training, increase incentives at tertiary and technical education, enhance consistency of education, training and skill development policies and encourage collaboration between public and private sectors. |
| Keywords: | Education, training, supply, demand, adequacy, efficiency, equity, skill development, Sudan |
| JEL: | H52 I20 I21 I28 M53 O15 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2011032&r=lab |
| By: | Bauer, Thomas (RWI); Braun, Sebastian (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Kvasnicka, Michael (RWI) |
| Abstract: | The flight and expulsion of Germans from Eastern Europe during and after World War II constitutes one of the largest forced population movements in history. We analyze the economic integration of these forced migrants and their offspring in West Germany. The empirical results suggest that even a quarter of a century after displacement, first generation migrants and native West Germans that were comparable before the war perform strikingly different. Migrants have substantially lower incomes and are less likely to own a house or to be self-employed. Displaced agricultural workers, however, have significantly higher incomes. This income gain can be explained by faster transitions out of low-paid agricultural work. Differences in the labor market performance of second generation migrants resemble those of the first generation. We also find that displacement considerably weakens the intergenerational transmission of human capital between fathers and children, especially at the lower tail of the skill distribution. |
| Keywords: | forced migration, economic integration, World War II, West Germany |
| JEL: | J61 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5855&r=lab |
| By: | Mughal, Mazhar; Diawara, Barassou |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of human capital on the adoption and diffusion of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) in the Pakistani firms using the World Bank Enterprise Survey 2002-07. The paper considers various indicators of human capital and measures of ICT adoption and diffusion. On-the-job training, manager's level of qualification and production workers' level of education are found to positively determine the use of emails, website and other means of communication in a firm. The results are robust to the inclusion of geographical, sectoral and structural control variables. Firm size, sales and workers' compensation are also positively associated with the use of ICT. The findings show the importance of accumulation and development of human capital in the productivity growth in the era of skill-biased technical change. A concerted national effort for the enhancement of the workforce's computing skills is therefore a must if a developing economy such as Pakistan is to improve its competitiveness. -- |
| Keywords: | Human capital,education,ICT,Pakistan |
| JEL: | I21 O10 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201121&r=lab |
| By: | Nour, Samia (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Khartoum University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the industrial performance indicators and the relationships between skill indicators; between skill, upskilling, technology and input-output indicators in Sudan. Our findings are consistent with the stylized facts in the new growth literature, concerning the correlation between skill indicators: education, experience and wages and also concerning the positive complementary relationships between technology, skill and upskilling. Different from the Sudanese literature, a novel element in our analysis is that we use a new primary data from the firm survey (2010) and we provide a new contribution and fill the gap in the Sudanese literature by examining the industrial performance indicators defined by three different sets of economic and productivity indicators, activity indicators and profitability indicators in Sudan. One advantage and interesting element in our analysis in this paper is that we confirm three hypotheses on the relationships between skill indicators; between skill, upskilling, technology and input-output indicators and industrial performance indicators using new primary data from the firm survey (2010) in Sudan. We verify our first hypothesis that irrespective of the observed differences across the industrial firms, the low skill levels - due to high share of unskilled workers - lead to skills mismatch and most probably contribute to decline of labour productivity and industrial performance indicators. We confirm our second hypothesis that an increase in skill levels and firm size lead to improved relationships between actual and required education and experience; between actual education, experience and wages; and between skill, upskilling and technology (ICT) and also improved industrial performance indicators. We also support our third hypothesis concerning the inconclusive relationships between new technology (the use of ICT) and input-output indicators at the micro/firm level. Finally, we provide a new contribution to the Sudanese literature, since we explain that the performance of the industrial firms is most probably immensely undermined by the shortage of skilled workers and also by the lack of entrepreneur perspective. We recommend further efforts to be made to improve adequate availability of skilled workers and commitment to entrepreneur perspective for improvement of labour productivity, industrial performance and therefore, economic growth and development in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | Industrial performance, skill, technology, input-output, firm size, industry, Sudan |
| JEL: | J24 L10 L20 L25 L60 O12 O15 O30 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2011030&r=lab |
| By: | Nour, Samia (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Khartoum University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine skill and technology indicators at the macro and micro levels in Sudan. Different from the Sudanese literature, a novel element in our analysis is that we use new primary data from the macro and firm surveys and we provide a new contribution and fill the gap in the Sudanese literature by examining five hypotheses on the causes and consequences of low skill and technology indicators at the macro and micro levels in Sudan. We verify our first hypothesis that the interaction between the deficient educational system -caused by low quality of education- and the high share of unskilled workers leads to poor provision of training; low skill levels; skills mismatch; low transfer of knowledge/external schooling effect; weak technology indicators and dependence on foreign technologies at the micro level. We confirm our second hypothesis that the poor local technology indicators/indigenous capability to build the local technology and heavy dependence on foreign technology can be attributed to lack of R&D activities/efforts, due to a lack of funding, low skill levels, weak linkages, lack of networks systems and collaboration between universities and industry/firms, low transfer of knowledge and a lack of entrepreneur perspective. We support our third hypothesis that the transfer of knowledge/external schooling effects is successful at the micro level but unsuccessful at the macro level due to low educational qualifications and deficient educational and training systems. We confirm our fourth hypothesis that skill and technology indicators are significantly determined by firm size and industry. We support our fifth hypothesis concerning the consistency of upskilling plans at the macro-micro levels. Finally, one advantage and interesting element in our analysis is that we provide a new contribution to the Sudanese literature, since we explain the causes, consequences and interaction between the low skill and technology indicators and the transfer of knowledge. We recommend further efforts to be made to improve skill and technology indicators and transfer of knowledge at the macro and micro levels which are all essential for economic growth and development in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | Skill, technology, firm size, industry, Sudan |
| JEL: | J24 L25 O12 O15 O30 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2011031&r=lab |
| By: | Lopes, Margarida |
| Abstract: | Abstract Labor market regulation and its relations with education and training have been performing an historical trajectory which closely intertwined with developments in economic thought. Under the form of human capital theories, neo-classical economics set the bridge between labor market equilibrium and education outputs for decades. The functionalist approach behind that lasting relationship was to be challenged by economic crises and globalization, which imposed the unquestionable supremacy of the demand for skilled work. Likewise, even if only that more strict perspective of education would prevail, which fortunately is not the case, time and hazard came to undertake its denigration on the grounds of a severe loss of regulatory efficiency as globalization was setting up. In this paper we shed light on the increasing role which innovation is called to perform in labor market hetero regulation in the present phase of globalization. Depending on the institutional design throughout which R&D become embedded in nowadays societies, evidence clearly reveals how innovation strategies are to be found so asymmetrically implemented between developed and developing countries, thereby leading to the enlarging divide between the “new North” and “new South” globalization off springs. |
| Keywords: | Key Words: labor market regulation; education and training; innovation; knowledge. |
| JEL: | J08 D84 A23 I21 |
| Date: | 2011–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32412&r=lab |
| By: | Boubtane, Ekrame (University Paris 1); Coulibaly, Dramane (CEPII, Paris); Rault, Christophe (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causality relationship between immigration, unemployment and economic growth of the host country. We employ the bootstrap panel Granger causality testing approach of Kónya (2006) that allows to test for causality on each individual country separably by accounting for dependence across countries. Using annual data over the period 1980-2005 for 22 OECD countries, we find that, only in Portugal, unemployment negatively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause unemployment. We also find that, in France, Iceland, Norway and United Kingdom, growth positively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause growth. |
| Keywords: | immigration, growth, unemployment, Granger causality |
| JEL: | E20 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5853&r=lab |
| By: | Ilyana Kuziemko |
| Abstract: | I develop a model in which a child's acquisition of a given form of human capital incentivizes adults in his household to either learn from him (if children act as teachers then adults' cost of learning the skill falls) or lean on him (if children's human capital substitutes for that of adults in household production then adults' benefit of learning the skill falls). I exploit regional variation in two shocks to children's human capital and examine the effect on adults. The rapid introduction of primary education for black children in the South during Reconstruction not only increased literacy of children but also of adults living in the same household ("learning" outweighs "leaning"). Conversely, the 1998 introduction of English immersion in California public schools appears to have increased the English skills of children but discouraged adults living with them from acquiring the language ("leaning" outweighs "learning"). Whether family members learn from or lean on each other has implications for the externalities associated with education policies. |
| JEL: | H23 I2 I28 J12 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17235&r=lab |
| By: | Stephanie Barrientos |
| Abstract: | Third party labour contractors are increasingly prevalent in Global Production Networks (GPNs), and are a potential channel for ‘new forms of slavery’. Our review of case study evidence from South African and UK horticulture suggests unfree labour often emerges off-site through labour intermediaries. We examine analytical approaches to labour in GPNs and value chains. We argue that labour contracting is a logical extension of global outsourcing, helping to offset risk and enhance flexibility. A ‘cascade system’ allows unscrupulous intermediaries to exploit and coerce vulnerable workers. We examine strategies of civil society alliances, and regulatory reform, and argue for extending liability across global boundaries. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:15311&r=lab |
| By: | David Johnston; Carol Propper; Stephen Pudney (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Social and Economic Research); Michael Shields |
| Abstract: | <p>We examine the effect of survey measurement error on the empirical relationship between child mental health and personal and family characteristics, and between child mental health and educational progress. Our contribution is to use unique UK survey data that contains (potentially biased) assessments of each child's mental state from three observers (parent, teacher and child), together with expert (quasi-) diagnoses, using an assumption of optimal diagnostic behaviour to adjust for reporting bias. We use three alternative restrictions to identify the effect of mental disorders on educational progress. Maternal education and mental health, family income, and major adverse life events, are all significant in explaining child mental health, and child mental health is found to have a large influence on educational progress. Our preferred estimate is that a 1-standard deviation reduction in 'true' latent child mental health leads to a 2-5 months loss in educational progress. We also find a strong tendency for observers to understate the problems of older children and adolescents compared to expert diagnosis.</p> |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:27/11&r=lab |
| By: | Laurence Ball, Nicolás De Roux and Marc Hofstetter |
| Abstract: | This study constructs a new data set on unemployment rates in Latin America and the Caribbean and then explores the determinants of unemployment. We compare different countries, finding that unemployment is influenced by the size of the rural population and that the effects of government regulations are generally weak. We also examine large, persistent increases in unemployment over time, finding that they are caused by contractions in aggregate demand. These demand contractions result from either disinflationary monetary policy or the defense of an exchange-rate peg in the face of capital flight. Our evidence supports hysteresis theories in which short-run changes in unemployment influence the natural rate. |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jhu:papers:582&r=lab |
| By: | Dasgupta, Utteeyo; Gangadharan, Lata; Maitra, Pushkar; Mani, Subha; Subramanian, Samyukta |
| Abstract: | This paper combines unique survey and experimental data to examine the determinants of self-selection into a vocational training program. Women residing in selected disadvantaged areas in New Delhi, India were invited to apply for a 6-month long free training program in stitching and tailoring. A random subset of applicants and non-applicants were invited to participate in a set of behavioral experiments and in a detailed socio-economic survey. We find that applicants and non-applicants differ both in terms of observables (captured using survey data) and also in terms of a number of intrinsic traits (captured via the behavioral experiments). Overall our results suggest that there is valuable information to be gained by dissecting the black box of unobservables using behavioral experiments. |
| Keywords: | Labor Market Training Programs; Selection; Survey Data; Field Experiments; Risk; Competition |
| JEL: | J24 C81 C93 |
| Date: | 2011–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32383&r=lab |
| By: | Heinz, Matthias; Juranek, Steffen; Rau, Holger A. |
| Abstract: | We analyze dictator allocation decisions in an experiment where the recipients have to earn the pot to be divided with a real-effort task. As the recipients move before the dictators, their effort decisions resemble the first move in a trust game. Depending on the recipients' performance, the size of the pot is either high or low. We compare this real-effort treatment to a baseline treatment where the pot is a windfall gain and where a lottery determines the pot size. In the baseline treatment, reciprocity cannot play a role. We find that female dictators show reciprocity and decrease their taking-rates significantly in the real-effort treatment. This treatment effect is larger when female dictators make a decision on recipients who successfully generated a large pot compared to the case where the recipients performed poorly. By contrast, there is no treatment effect with male dictators, who generally exhibit more sefish behavior. -- |
| Keywords: | Gender,Reciprocity,Dictator Game,Real Effort |
| JEL: | C72 C91 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:24&r=lab |
| By: | Kitov, Ivan; Kitov, Oleg |
| Abstract: | We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real GDP per capita. All empirical relationships estimated in this study need a structural break somewhere between 1975 and 1995. Such breaks might be caused by revisions to monetary policy (e.g. inflation targeting) or/and changes in measurement units. Statistically, the link between measured and predicted rate of employment is characterized by the coefficient of determination from 0.84 (Australia) to 0.95 (Japan). The model residuals are likely to be associated with measurement errors. |
| Keywords: | employment; unemployment; real GDP; modeling; Okun’s law |
| JEL: | E24 J21 |
| Date: | 2011–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32404&r=lab |
| By: | Lena Calahorrano |
| Abstract: | In the face of rising old-age dependency ratios in industrialized countries like Germany, politicians and their electorates discuss the loosening of immigration policies as one policy option to ensure the sustainability of public social security systems. The question arises whether this policy option is feasible in aging countries: older individuals are typically found to be more averse to immigration. However, cross-sectional investigations may confound age with cohort effects. This investigation uses the 1999-2008 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel to separate the effect of age on immigration attitudes from cohort and also from time effects. Over the life cycle stated immigration concerns are predicted to increase well into retirement and decrease afterward. Relative to other issues, immigration concerns are found to actually decrease over the life cycle. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, demographic change, political economy |
| JEL: | D78 F22 J10 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp389&r=lab |
| By: | Werner Eichhorst (IZA); Michael J. Kendzia (IZA); Barbara Vandeweghe (IDEA Consult) |
| Abstract: | Report based on a study conducted for the European Parliament, Bonn 2011 (87 pages) |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izarrs:38&r=lab |