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on Labour Economics |
| By: | Camarero, M.; Carrión, J.Ll.; Tamarit, C. (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we test for the hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis on the unemployment rates of the EU new members using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. As a by product, the analysis proceeds to the estimation of a NAIRU measure from a univariate point of view. The paper also focuses on the precision of these NAIRU estimates studying the two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the break points estimation and the autoregressive parameters estimation. The results point to the associated with institucional changes implementing market-oriented reforms. Moreover, the degree of persistence in unemployment varies dramatically among the individual countries depending on the stage reached in the transition process. |
| JEL: | C22 C23 E24 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bar:bedcje:2005131&r=lab |
| By: | Danthine, Jean-Pierre; Kurmann, Andre |
| Abstract: | The missing wage rigidity in general equilibrium models of efficiency wages is an artifact of the external wage reference perspective conventionally adopted by the literature. Efficiency wage models based on an internal wage reference perspective are capable of generating strong wage rigidity. We propose a structural model of efficiency wages that is broadly consistent with the reported evidence on fairness in labour relations and rent-sharing. Our model provides a robust explanation for wage rigidity and procyclical effort. It also rationalizes reciprocal behaviour by workers and the observation that firm productivity is a significant predictor of wage setting. |
| Keywords: | efficiency wages; reciprocity; rent-sharing; wage rigidity |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J50 |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4503&r=lab |
| By: | Moen, Espen R; Rosen, Asa |
| Abstract: | It is well known in personnel economics that firms may improve the quality of their workforce by offering performance pay. We analyse an equilibrium model where worker productivity is private information and show that the gains to the firms from worker self-selection may not be matched by a corresponding social gain. In particular, the equilibrium incentive to workers to exert too much effort. |
| Keywords: | efficiency; performance pay; selection |
| JEL: | D82 J30 |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4511&r=lab |
| By: | Berkhout, Peter; van der Klaauw, Bas; van Vuuren, Aico |
| Abstract: | In this Paper, we develop a structural model for the job search behaviour of students entering the labour market. The model includes endogenous search effort and on-the-job searches. Since students usually do not start a regular job before graduation but start job searches earlier, our model is non-stationary even if all structural parameters are constant. The model explains the common finding that a substantial share of individuals start working immediately upon graduation. We estimate the model using a unique data set of individuals who completed undergraduate education in the Netherlands between 1995 and 2001. Our estimation results show that a 1% decrease in unemployment rate increases wage offers by 3%, that there are substantial returns to work experience and that individuals devote less effort to job search than optimal. Employment rates at graduation could be increased from 40% to 65% if all individuals start job searches 6 month prior to graduation. |
| Keywords: | business cycle; return-to-work experience; structural estimation |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4515&r=lab |
| By: | Felli, Leonardo; Harris, Christopher J |
| Abstract: | This Paper introduces two complementary models of firm-specific training: an informational model and a productivity-enhancement model. In both models, market provision of firm-specific training is inefficient. The nature of the inefficiency depends, however, on the balance between the two key components of training, namely productivity enhancement and employee evaluation. In the informational model, training results in a proportionate increase in productivity enhancement and employee evaluation, and training is underprovided by the market. In the productivity-enhancement model, training results in an increase in productivity enhancement but no change in employee evaluation, and training is overprovided by the market. In both models, turnover is inefficiently low. |
| Keywords: | employee evaluation; firm-specific human capital; firm-specific training; productivity enhancement |
| JEL: | C78 D83 J41 |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4580&r=lab |
| By: | Botticini, Maristella; Eckstein, Zvi |
| Abstract: | This Paper documents the major features of Jewish economic history in the first millennium to explain the distinctive occupational selection of the Jewish people into urban, skilled occupations. We show that many Jews entered urban occupations in the eighth-ninth centuries in the Muslim Empire when there were no restrictions on their economic activities, most of them were farmers, and they were a minority in all locations. Therefore, arguments based on restrictions or minority status cannot explain the occupational transition of the Jews at that time. Our thesis is that the occupational selection of the Jews was the outcome of the widespread literacy prompted by a religious and educational reform in the first century CE, which was implemented in the third to the eighth century. We present detailed information on the implementation of this religious and educational reform in Judaism based on the Talmud, archeological evidence on synagogues, the Cairo Geniza documents, and the Responsa literature. We also provide evidence of the economic returns to Jewish religious literacy. |
| Keywords: | first millennium; human capital; Jewish economic history; migration; occupational choice; religion and social norms |
| JEL: | J10 J20 N30 O10 |
| Date: | 2004–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4604&r=lab |
| By: | Cahuc, Pierre; Marque, François; Wasmer, Etienne |
| Abstract: | Firms are the field of several strategic interactions that standard neo-classical analysis often ignores. Such strategic considerations concern relations between capital owner and labour, relations between marginal employees and incumbents and more generally all relations between different groups within the firm with different bargaining positions. This Paper provides a synthetic model of the labour market equilibrium with search frictions in a dynamic framework where wage bargaining is influenced by within-firm strategic interactions, with explicit closed form solutions. We then explore systematically within-firm strategic interactions and shed new light on the micro- and macroeconomic consequences of conflicts on wages, unemployment and capital accumulation. First, we recover the partial equilibrium over-employment phenomenon put to the fore by Stole and Zwiebel (1996a,b) at the firm level, according to which the bargaining power of workers increases employment. Further, with heterogeneous labour, higher relative bargaining power for some groups leads quite generally to over-employment relative to other groups, those other groups being under-employed if they have a lower relative bargaining power. The over-employment results do not necessarily hold at the macroeconomic level, however. Quantitative exercises suggest that the bargaining power of workers is actually detrimental to employment when labour is considered as an homogeneous input. Finally, the hold-up problem between capital owners and employees does not necessarily lead to under-investment in physical capital as it is usually the case. Actually, strategic over-employment can induce over-investment when employees substitutable to capital have strong bargaining power. |
| Keywords: | intra-firm bargaining; over-employment; search and matching; strategic wage bargaining; unemployment |
| JEL: | J30 J60 |
| Date: | 2004–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4605&r=lab |
| By: | Bayo-Moriones, Alberto; Galdón Sánchez, José Enrique; Güell, Maia |
| Abstract: | In this Paper we use data from industrial plants to investigate if seniority-based pay is used as a motivational device for production workers. Alternatively, seniority-based pay could simply be a wage-setting rule not necessarily related to the provision of incentives. Unlike previous papers, we use a direct measure of seniority-based pay as well as measures of monitoring devices and piece-rates. We find that firms that offer seniority-based pay are less likely to offer explicit incentives. They are also less likely to invest in monitoring devices. We also find that firms that offer seniority-based pay are more likely to engage in other human resource management policies that result in long employment relationships. Overall these results suggest that seniority-based pay is indeed used as a motivation device. |
| Keywords: | human resource management practices; incentives; M52; monitoring |
| JEL: | J30 M12 |
| Date: | 2004–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4606&r=lab |
| By: | Garibaldi, Pietro; Pacelli, Lia |
| Abstract: | This Paper analyses the effect of severance payments on the probability of separation at given tenure, wages and other individual and firm characteristics. It studies a mandatory deferred wage scheme of the Italian labour market (Trattamento di Fine Rapporto, TFR). Deferred wages increase job duration if two conditions hold: wages are rigidly set outside the employer-employee relationship, and past provisions are accumulated at interest rates that are below market rates. Under such circumstances, workers who withdraw from their accumulated stock of unpaid wages should experience, at given tenure, a subsequent increase in the probability of separation. This prediction appears empirically robust and quantitatively sizeable. A withdraw of 60% of the TFR stock (the median observed withdraw) increases the instantaneous hazard rate by almost 20%. In other words, an individual with at least ten years of tenure that experiences an early withdrawal increases his/her hazard rate from 10% to about 12%. A variety of robustness tests support these results. |
| Keywords: | employment protection legislation; severence payments |
| JEL: | J10 |
| Date: | 2004–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4607&r=lab |
| By: | Garibaldi, Pietro; Violante, Giovanni L |
| Abstract: | Firing costs due to employment protection legislation have two separate dimensions: a transfer from the firm to the worker to be laid off and a tax paid outside the firm-worker pair. We document that quantitatively transfers are a much larger component than taxes. Nevertheless, to avoid the ‘bonding critique’ most of the existing literature overlooks the transfer component by making the implicit assumption that, in the presence of wage rigidity, mandatory severance payments have the same real effects as firing taxes. This Paper shows, in the context of a search model with insider and outsider workers, that this presumption is in general misplaced: the impact of severance payments on unemployment is qualitatively different from that of firing taxes, and it varies according to the bite of the wage rigidity. When the wage rigidity is endogenously determined by a centralized monopoly union of insiders, severance payments are either neutral or they increase unemployment, depending on the union’s coverage of outsiders’ contracts. This prediction finds empirical support in a panel dataset of OECD countries. |
| Keywords: | firing tax; severance payment; unemployment; wage rigidity |
| JEL: | E24 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2004–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4608&r=lab |
| By: | Cohen-Goldner, Sarit; Paserman, Daniele |
| Abstract: | This Paper studies the impact of mass migration from the Former Soviet Union to Israel on natives’ probability of moving from employment to non-employment in a segmented labour market that is defined by various combinations of schooling, occupation, industry, district of residence and experience. We find that the share of immigrants in a given labour market segment is generally positively associated with the probability of natives to move from employment in that segment to non-employment, both for males and females. When segment fixed-effects are added, this effect all but disappears for females, and is substantially reduced for males. We conclude that immigrants are negatively selected into occupations with high turnover and that natives were not facing higher probability to exit employment due to immigrants’ presence in a certain occupation. Allowing the effect to vary across natives with different levels of education and experience reveals that, young men, educated men and workers in the private sector are adversely affected by the presence of immigrants. |
| Keywords: | immigration; labour demand and supply; segmented labour markets |
| JEL: | F22 J00 J21 J30 J61 |
| Date: | 2004–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4629&r=lab |
| By: | Cohen-Goldner, Sarit; Paserman, Daniele |
| Abstract: | This Paper studies the dynamic impact of mass migration from the Former Soviet Union to Israel on natives’ labour market outcomes. Specifically, we attempt to distinguish between the short-run and long-run effects of immigrants on natives’ wages and employment. The transition of immigrants into a new labour market is a gradual process: the dynamics of this process come from immigrants’ occupational mobility and from adjustments by local factors of production. Natives may therefore face changing labour market conditions, even years after the arrival of the immigrants. If immigrants are relatively good substitutes for native workers, we expect that the impact of immigration will be largest immediately upon the immigrants’ arrival, and may become smaller as the labor market adjusts to the supply shock. Conversely, if immigrants upon arrival are poor substitutes for natives because of their lack of local human capital, the initial effect of immigration is small, and the effect increases as immigrants acquire local labour market skills and compete with native workers. We empirically examine these alternative hypotheses using data from Israel’s Labor Force and Income Surveys from 1989 to 1999. We find that wages of both men and women are negatively correlated with the fraction of immigrants with little local experience in a given labour market segment. A 10% increase in the share of immigrants lowers natives’ wages in the short run by 1 to 3%, but this effect dissolves after 4 to 7 years. This result is robust to a variety of different segmentations of the labour market, to the inclusion of cohort effects, and to different dynamic structures in the residual term of the wage equation. On the other hand, we do not find any effect of immigration on employment, neither in the short nor in the long run. |
| Keywords: | immigration; labour demand; labour supply; segmented labour markets |
| JEL: | F22 J00 J21 J30 J61 |
| Date: | 2004–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4640&r=lab |
| By: | Saint-Paul, Gilles |
| Abstract: | This Paper uses US Census data from 1990 and 2000 to provide evidence on the labour market characteristics of European-born workers living in the US. It is found that there is a positive wage premium associated with these workers, and that the highly skilled are over-represented compared with the source country, more so, when one moves up the skill ladder. |
| Keywords: | brain drain; europe; migration |
| JEL: | J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4680&r=lab |
| By: | Desmet, Klaus; Fafchamps, Marcel |
| Abstract: | This Paper examines the spatial distribution of jobs across US counties and investigates whether sectoral employment is becoming more or less concentrated. The existing literature has found deconcentration (convergence) of employment across urban areas. Cities only cover a small part of the US though. Using county data, our results indicate that deconcentration is limited to the upper tail of the distribution. The overall picture is one of increasing concentration (divergence). While this seemingly contradicts the well-documented deconcentration in manufacturing, we show that these aggregate employment dynamics are driven by services. Non-service sectors – such as manufacturing and farming – are indeed becoming more equally spread across space, but services are becoming increasingly concentrated. |
| Keywords: | economic geography; ergodic distribution; spatial distribution of employment; US counties |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4689&r=lab |
| By: | Boone, Jan; van Ours, Jan C |
| Abstract: | We present a theoretical and empirical analysis of different types of active labour market policies (ALMP). In our empirical analysis we use data on 20 OECD countries covering the time period 1985-99. We find that labour market training is the most effective program to bring down unemployment. Public employment services have some impact while subsidized jobs are not effective at all. Our theory considers ALMP in the context of a search-matching model. |
| Keywords: | active labour market programmes; public employment services; subsidized jobs; training; unemployment |
| JEL: | H55 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4707&r=lab |
| By: | Neuman, Shoshana; Ziderman, Adrian |
| Abstract: | This study examines the extent, duration and timing of employment breaks amongst a large representative sample of Jewish workers in Israel over the 13-year time period, 1983-95. Work histories are constructed from a new joint database, unique in Israel, which was derived from a linkage of 1995 Population Census data with monthly employment records of the National Insurance Institute. The Paper focuses on gender differences in work history patterns and, within each gender, breakdowns are provided by ethnic origin, marital status, age and education level. While most of the results are both expected and compatible with current economic theories of household behaviour, some of the findings of the study are less expected, particularly those relating to the considerable amount of intermittent employment found amongst Israeli male workers. Also, women’s labour market attachment is stronger than is generally presumed. Gender differences in employment interruptions are greater for younger than older workers. |
| Keywords: | age; education; employment; ethnicity; gender; marital status; non-employment; spells |
| JEL: | J12 J15 J16 J21 J22 |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4708&r=lab |
| By: | Neuman, Shoshana; Oaxaca, Ronald L |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this Paper is to investigate wage structures of professional workers in the Israeli labour market, using data from the most recent 1995 Census and correcting for selectivity at the stage of entrance into the occupation. The sample of professionals is decomposed into several subsamples: men and women, and within each gender a distinction is made between Easterners (originating from Asian/African countries) and Westerners (from European/American countries of origin). Comparisons by gender and ethnicity can then be made. Characteristics (endowments) and wage structures of the four groups are presented.Wage equations include the Inverse of Mill's Ratio as a regressor to correct for selection into the professional occupations. Wage differences are then examined and decomposed into three components: endowments (human capital), discrimination and selectivity. Following the methodology presented in Neuman and Oaxaca (2004), four alternative decompositions are suggested and discussed. |
| Keywords: | age; education; employment spells; ethnicity; gender; marital status; non-employment |
| JEL: | J12 J15 J16 J21 J22 |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4709&r=lab |
| By: | Boeri, Tito; Conde-Ruiz, José Ignacio; Galasso, Vincenzo |
| Abstract: | We document the presence of a trade-off between unemployment benefits (UB) and employment protection legislation (EPL) in the provision of insurance against labour market risk. Different countries’ locations along this trade-off represent stable, hard to modify, politico-economic equilibria. We develop a model in which voters are required to cast a ballot over the strictness of EPL, the generosity of UBs and the amount of redistribution involved by the financing of unemployment insurance. Agents are heterogeneous along two dimensions: employment status – insiders and outsiders – and skills – low and high. Unlike previous work on EPL, we model employment protection as an institution redistributing among insiders, notably in favour of the low-skill workers. A key implication of the model is that configurations with strict EPL and low UB should emerge in presence of compressed wage structures. Micro data on wage premia on educational attainments and on the strictness of EPL are in line with our results. We also find empirical support to the substantive assumptions of the model on the effects of EPL. |
| Keywords: | employment protection; political equilibria; unemployment insurance |
| JEL: | D72 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4711&r=lab |
| By: | Campos, Nauro F; Jolliffe, Dean |
| Abstract: | How does the relationship between earnings and schooling change with the introduction of comprehensive economic reform? This Paper uses a unique dataset (covering about 3 million Hungarian wage earners, from 1986 to 1998) and a novel procedure to correct sample selection bias (based on DiNardo, Fortin and Lemieux’s) to shed light on this question. We find that reform was successful in general, increasing returns to skill by 70.5%, but that there were winners and losers. The winners seem to be the college and university educated, those employed by the smaller firms and those in commerce and services. The losers are those in manufacturing and agriculture and, surprisingly, those who received their formal education after the initiation of reform. |
| Keywords: | economic reform; human capital; transition economics |
| JEL: | I20 J20 J24 J31 O15 O52 P20 |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4716&r=lab |
| By: | Wasmer, Etienne; Zenou, Yves |
| Abstract: | Assuming that job search efficiency decreases with distance to jobs, workers’ location in a city depends on spatial elements such as commuting costs and land prices and on labour elements such as wages and the matching technology. In the absence of moving costs, we show that there exists a unique equilibrium in which employed and unemployed workers are perfectly segregated but move at each employment transition. We investigate the interactions between the land and the labour market equilibrium and show under which condition they are interdependent. When relocation costs become positive, a new zone appears in which both the employed and the unemployed co-exist and are not mobile. We demonstrate that the size of this area goes continuously to zero when moving costs vanish. Finally, we endogenize search effort, show that it negatively depends on distance to jobs and that long and short-term unemployed workers coexist and locate in different areas of the city. |
| Keywords: | job matching; local labour markets; relocation costs; search effort |
| JEL: | E24 J41 R14 |
| Date: | 2004–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4743&r=lab |
| By: | Constant, Amelie; Zimmermann, Klaus F |
| Abstract: | Economically active people are either in gainful employment, are unemployed or self-employed. We are interested in the dynamics of the transitions between these states across the business cycle. It is generally perceived that employment or self-employment are absorbing states. However, innovations, structural changes and business cycles generate strong adjustment processes that lead to fluctuations between employment and self-employment, directly or through the unemployment state. Migrants are more likely to be sensitive to adjustment pressures than natives, since they have less stable jobs and choose more often self-employment to avoid periods of unemployment. These issues are investigated using a huge micro data set generated from 19 waves of the German Socioeconomic Panel. The findings suggest that the conditional probabilities of entry into self-employment are more than twice as high from the status of unemployment as from the status of employment. Self-employment is also an important channel back to regular employment. Business cycle effects strongly impact the employment transition matrix, and migrants take a larger part in the adjustment process. They use self-employment as a mechanism to circumvent and escape unemployment and to integrate into the host country's labour market. |
| Keywords: | business cycle; entrepreneurship; Markov chain analysis; migration; self-employment |
| JEL: | E32 J23 J61 M13 |
| Date: | 2004–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4754&r=lab |
| By: | Den Haan, Wouter; Haefke, Christian; Ramey, Gary |
| Abstract: | According to Ljungqvist and Sargent (1998), high European unemployment since the 1980s can be explained by a rise in economic turbulence, leading to greater numbers of unemployed workers with obsolete skills. These workers refuse new jobs due to high unemployment benefits. In this Paper we reassess the turbulence unemployment relationship using a matching model with endogenous job destruction. In our model, higher turbulence reduces the incentives of employed workers to leave their jobs. If turbulence has only a tiny effect on the skills of workers experiencing endogenous separation, then the results of Ljungqvist and Sargent (1998, 2004) are reversed, and higher turbulence leads to a reduction in unemployment. Thus, changes in turbulence cannot provide an explanation for European unemployment that reconciles the incentives of both unemployed and employed workers. |
| Keywords: | european unemployment puzzle; skill loss |
| JEL: | E24 J64 |
| Date: | 2004–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4765&r=lab |
| By: | Vincent, VANDENBERGHE (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Olivier, DEBANDE (european Investment bank, Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | There are many arguments supporting greater private contribution to higher education costs, particularly in Europe. But this case largely rests on the capability to offer deferred, income-contingent payments and to pool the cost of income contingency among all graduates. The two first features are critical to efficiency - students and lenders should not be deterred by excessive risk - and justice - contributions should be tailored to ex post ability to pay. While cost pooling is essential to avoid public debt classification of student contracts. Examples of instruments satisfying these criteria are loans with income-forgiveness and human capital contracts. The central aim of this paper is to produce realistic estimates of how graduates’ lifetime earnings are likely to be affected by the generalisation of these instruments. Using data on Belgian wages, we compute estimates of contributions that these instruments could impose on graduates. We also evaluate their effect on population-wide distribution of lifetime net wages, using higher income tax as a benchmark. The paper further considers the risk of adverse selection inherent to cost pooling. It shows that investing less on students opting for less profitable programs is a simple way to mitigate its severity. |
| Keywords: | Higher Education Finance; loans with income-forgiveness; cost of insurance, risk pooling |
| JEL: | I28 H52 |
| Date: | 2005–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvec:2005003&r=lab |
| By: | Michel, DE VROEY (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the issue of why Keynesian economists have had such a hard time in giving the concept of involuntary unemployment a place in economic theory. Is the gradual demise of this concept a manifestation of some inner defect in economic theory or is it due to some intrinsic weakness in the concept itself, which limits its usefulness when it comes to economic theorising? I have recently published a book which attempts to answer this question, and my aim in this paper is to present its main results. I start by characteristing Keynes’s programme as consisting of the following four elements : 1) demonstrating the existence of involuntary unemployment; 2) demonstrating that wage rigidity can be exonerated as its cause; 3) giving a general equilibrium or interdependency explanation of the phenomenon; 4) demonstrating that demand stimulation is the proper remedy for the problem. Next, I bring out four conceptual ambiguities that have plagued discussions about involuntary unemployment : the confusion between involuntary unemployment and underemployment; the confusion between involuntary unemployment in the individual disiquilibrium sense and involuntary unemployment in the frustration sense; a loose understanding of the notion of full emplyment; and, finally, a less than rigorous definition of the notion of rigidity. The paper continues by presenting my arguments on whether different types of New Keynesian modesls (implicit contracts, efficiency wages, coordination failures and imperfect competition) have succeeded in achieving Keynes’s programme. My conclusion is that they all fail on at least one of its items. In the final section of this paper, I speculate on whether it is still worthwhile for economists with a Keynesian inclination to keep fighting in defence of involuntary unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Keynes; Involuntary Unemployment; New keynesian Theory |
| JEL: | B22 E12 E24 J64 |
| Date: | 2005–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvec:2005004&r=lab |
| By: | Eva, MORENO-GALBIS (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Henri R., SNEESSENS (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) (Belgium) and Université Catholique de Lille (France)) |
| Abstract: | We construct an intertemporal general equilibrium model with two types of jobs and two types of workers. We allow for job competition between high- and low-skilled segment of the labour market and for on-the-job search. Matching processes are represented by matching functions à la Pissarides. Workers search intensities are endogenous. Biased technological change is introduced via embodied technical progress and a capital-skill complementarity. The model is calibrated and simulated to evaluate the impact of various types of shocks. The model reproduces quite well the unemployment rate changes and the relative wage stability observed over the last two decades. It suggests strong interactions between biased technological change, discouragement effects and job competition. |
| Keywords: | Skill mismatch; equilibrium unemployment; ladder effect; macro dynamics |
| JEL: | E24 J21 J23 |
| Date: | 2004–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2004025&r=lab |
| By: | Vincent, VANDENBERGHE (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Olivier, DEBANDE (European Investment Bank, Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | There are many economic and philosophical arguments supporting the introduction of student loans as a way to complement public financing and secure adequate resources for higher education, particularly in Europe. These arguments are briefly reviewed in this paper. But the case in favour of student loans largely rests on the capability to provide loans that are income-contingent. Indeed, income-contingent repayments are critical to both efficiendy (students and lenders should not be deterred due to excessive risk) and equity (contributions should be tailored to ex post ability to pay). But income-contingency comes at a cost that can be expressed as a risk premium that should be supported and shared between graduates and/or taxpayers. The central aim of this paper is to produce realistic estiamtes of such a risk, identifying the conditions for the implementation of an income-contingent loan scheme in order to channel additional private funding to higher education systems. How does low lifetime income and/or unemployment spells among higher education graduates translates into risk premia ? Results, derived from the analysis of Belgian earnings data, suggest that the risk premium ranges from 13% for university (ISCED 6-7) graduates to 26% for non-university (ISCED 5) ones. The paper further investigates the various ways of pooling and shifting this risk, while addressing the danger of public debt classification (ie, student loans classified as public) and adverse selection (ie, unsustainable pooling of high and low risk loans). |
| Keywords: | Higher Education Finance; Income-contingent Loans; Risk premium; Risk poolong |
| JEL: | I28 H52 |
| Date: | 2004–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2004036&r=lab |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi |
| Abstract: | "This paper examines dynamic changes in educational quality and equity differences in the public school system between Black and other racial groups in post-apartheid South Africa, using the ratio of learners to educators in each school, available from the School Register of Needs, 1996 and 2000. The analysis incorporates school- and community-level unobservables and the endogenous movement of learners. This paper shows that (1) the learner-educator ratios significantly differ between formerly Black and White primary and secondary schools in 1996 and 2000, and (2) in the adjustment of educators in response to changes in the number of learners in this period, there are significant differences between formerly Black and non-Black (White, Coloured, and Indian) primary schools. The opportunities for education in public schools are still unequal between Black and White children, even after apartheid. Given that school quality affects returns to schooling and earning opportunities in labor markets, the inequality causes income inequality between Black and White. The empirical result calls for stronger policy intervention to support Black schools and children in South Africa. Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | quality of education ,race ,apartheid , |
| Date: | 2004 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:fcnddp:182&r=lab |
| By: | Brink, Anna (Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University); Nordblom, Katarina (Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of public child-care subsidies on parental time allocation. We develop a model where parents are allowed to utilize subsidized care during both working and leisure hours. The model distinguishes between subsidies to child-care quality and to fees. Three types of fees are considered: flat, based on time spent in care, and based on parental income. We show that parental time allocation depends on whether quality or fees are subsidized, and also that fee subsidies have dierent eects depending on the fee structure. We further show that even if a subsidy increases the use of public care, the effect on labor supply may be unclear due to the possibility of using child care also when not working. <p> |
| Keywords: | Public child care; Child-care quality; Child-care fees; Time allocation; Labor supply |
| JEL: | H42 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2005–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0157&r=lab |
| By: | Wallette, Mårten (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates temporary jobs and on-the-job training in the Swedish labour market during the 1990s. The analysis focuses on how the incidence and the amount of OJT differ between workers who hold temporary jobs vis-à-vis workers who hold open-ended jobs. An important aspect is also possible disparities between the genders, and between native Swedes and foreign-born workers. The results show that the incidence of OJT for temporary jobholders is lower than for corresponding open-ended jobholders. However, conditional on a worker receives OJT, it is not automatically the case that the amount of OJT is lower for all temporary jobholders. Further, the amount of OJT received by female workers is, in general, lower than for comparable male workers. Foreign-born workers (regardless of gender) have a lower incidence of OJT, but conditioned on that they receive OJT the amount is (for foreign born males in particular) often higher than for Swedish-born workers. |
| Keywords: | Temporary Jobs; On-the-Job Training; Incidence; Gender |
| JEL: | J21 J40 J50 |
| Date: | 2005–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2005_013&r=lab |
| By: | Wallette, Mårten (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses exit probabilities from different types of temporary jobs to open-ended jobs in Sweden during 1991-1999. The main aim of the study is to illuminate how the exit probabilities, and their determinants, differ by type of temporary job. A second focus is how the exit probabilities differ depending on origin and gender, i.e. a segmentation aspect. The results show that the exit probabilities differ between different types of temporary jobs, and that variables that have been shown to affect the incidence of temporary jobs, also in many cases are significant determinants of the probability to leave (or not leave) a temporary job. Our results also show that all types of temporary jobs (but probation) on average perform rather poorly as stepping-stones into open-ended jobs. By calculating predicted exit probabilities we also show that there are differences between the genders, and also between native origins. The probability to exit to open-ended jobs are on average lower for females than for males, and they are also, on average, lower for foreign-born workers than for native Swedes. |
| Keywords: | Temporary jobs; exit probability; foreign-born; gender; segmentation |
| JEL: | J21 J40 J49 |
| Date: | 2004–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2005_014&r=lab |
| By: | Meyer, Anna (Department of Economics, Lund University); Wallette, Mårten (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | According to theories of screening and signaling, a temporary worker who shows effort should increase the probability of obtaining a permanent contract. We use two types of signals of effort: overtime and low levels of absenteeism to investigate i) whether temporary workers show more effort and ii) whether effort has a positive effect on the exit probability into permanent employment. We find that temporary workers have lower levels of absenteeism than permanent ones, but also lower levels of overtime work. Effort has little effect on the exit probability into permanent employment. However, using a competing risks model we find that working overtime decreases the probability of becoming unemployed. |
| Keywords: | Temporary jobs; signals; absenteeism; overtime; exit; competing risk |
| JEL: | J20 J40 J69 |
| Date: | 2005–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2005_015&r=lab |
| By: | Lindquist, Matthew J. (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | Income inequality increased in Sweden during the 1980’s and 90’s as did the returns to higher education. The main conclusion of this study is that increased income inequality between high and low skilled workers is demand driven and is due to the presence of capital-skill complementarity in production. Increased investments in new, more efficient capital equipment, together with a slowdown in the growth rate of skilled labor, have raised the ratio of effective capital inputs per skilled worker, which, in turn, has increased the relative demand (and market return) for skilled labor through the capital-skill complementarity mechanism. |
| Keywords: | capital-skill complementarity; inequality; relative wages; skill premium; university wage premium |
| JEL: | J31 |
| Date: | 2005–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofiwp:2005_002&r=lab |
| By: | Cascio, Elizabeth (University of California, Davis and IZA Bonn); Lewis, Ethan (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | Is the Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT) a measure of achievement or ability? The answer to this question is critical for drawing inferences from studies in which it is employed. In this paper, we test for a relationship between schooling and AFQT performance in the NLSY 79 by comparing test-takers with birthdays near state cutoff dates for school entry. We instrument for schooling at the test date with academic cohort – the year in which an individual should have entered first grade – in a model that allows age at the test date to have a direct effect on AFQT performance. This identification strategy reveals large impacts of schooling on the AFQT performance of racial minorities, providing support for the hypothesis that the AFQT measures school achievement. |
| Keywords: | education, ability, achievement, AFQT, school entry |
| JEL: | I20 J24 J15 |
| Date: | 2005–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1481&r=lab |
| By: | Peter Hans Matthews |
| Abstract: | The introduction of "effort inducible" and non-effort" workers into an otherwise standard model of labor discipline produces a paradox of sorts: when firms cannot tell the difference, the predictable reductions in both output and real wages are sometimes accompanied by an increase in profits. The resolution of this paradox is found in the difference in expected productities of workers with and without jobs, the source of a reputation effect that alters the balance of labor market power. When, as a consequence of the acquisition and depreciation of productive skills, the relative proportions of such workers are then endogenized, the model exhibits multiple equilibria for plausible parameter values. One of these equilibria can be understood as a new sort of "underemployment trap" with an atrophied primary sector. |
| Keywords: | labor discipline, reputation effect, positive feedback, underemployment trap |
| JEL: | J41 E24 |
| Date: | 2005–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mdl:mdlpap:0501&r=lab |
| By: | Alan L. Gustman (Dartmouth College and NBER); Thomas L. Steinmeier (Texas Tech University) |
| Abstract: | This paper simulates the retirement effects of the various elements of proposals made by the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security (CSSS). Simulations are based on a structural dynamic model of retirement and savings estimated with data from the first five waves of the Health and Retirement Study. This model posits lifetime expected utility is constrained by an asset accumulation equation and an uncertain lifetime. Retirement preferences and time preferences are both allowed to be heterogeneous among workers, allowing the model to capture the peaks in retirement at both ages 62 and 65. Simulating over the next 75 years, the model suggests that the trend to earlier retirement, which has only recently been interrupted, should continue. The effect of Commission proposals is to provide individuals with incentives to delay their retirement substantially. The overall effect of these proposals could be enough to offset, or more than offset the trend to earlier retirement. The largest effects on retirement in the Commission proposals comes from a provision in Model 2 which would keep benefits roughly constant in real terms. Compared to current law, which allows benefits to grow with wages, in 2075 years this provision would increase the fraction of those 62 years old at full-time work from 39 percent to 46 percent of the cohort. Indexing benefits to life expectancy, as in Plan 3, would lower the effect to 4 percentage points, about the same effect as allowing the system to continue, and after the trust fund is exhausted, paying benefits proportional to revenue. By 2075 a proposal in the Commission’s Model 3 to reduce benefits of early retirees, but raise the actuarial adjustment for those who postpone retirement past the normal retirement age, would create a 3.4 percentage point increase in full-time work for those 65 years old, increasing the number of 65 year olds working full-time by fifteen percent. Other elements of the proposals, including increasing benefits for low wage workers and reducing benefits for high wage workers, would produce only very modest changes in retirement behavior, even within affected groups. |
| Date: | 2003–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp038&r=lab |
| By: | Steven J. Haider (Michigan State University); David S. Loughran (RAND) |
| Abstract: | More than 40 percent of Social Security beneficiaries continue to work after age 65. This research investigates the extent to which these individuals substitute labor across periods in response to anticipated wage changes induced by the Social Security earnings test. While we find that a disproportionate number of individuals choose earnings within a few percentage points of the earnings limit, we find no evidence that these individuals substitute labor supply between |
| Date: | 2003–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp049&r=lab |
| By: | John Laitner (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | The President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security suggests three plans for reforming Social Security. These plans divert various amounts of the payroll tax to a personal account if the worker chooses to participate in the account. In return, Social Security benefits are offset using accounts with real returns ranging from 2% to 3.5%. In addition, the second and third plans proposed by the Commission include features that are designed to balance the finances of the system by reducing the rate of growth of benefits relative to the levels prescribed under current law, to make the system more redistributive, and to make other changes. When “personal accounts ” are mentioned, most people think of accounts that are in some sense separate and shielded from the uncertainties of the Social Security system. That is not the case for the personal accounts proposed by the Commission. Because the participating individual is not entitled to the principal in the account, participating in the account does not shield the individual from the political risks of being in the Social Security system. As a result, the reduction in political risk fostered by the Commission’s proposals comes mainly from the improvement in the financial status of the system fostered by other provisions of the recommended plans. Measures to improve the benefits of low-income individuals, widows and widowers and to enhance the rewards to retirement all create incentive effects that are also discussed in the paper. |
| Date: | 2003–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp050&r=lab |
| By: | Miles S. Kimball (University of Michigan); Matthew D. Shapiro (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | The effect of Social Security rules on the age people choose to retire can be critical in evaluating proposed changes to those rules. This research derives a theory of retirement that views retirement as a special type of labor supply decision. This decision is driven by wealth and substitution effects on labor supply, interacting with a fixed cost of working that makes low hours of work unattractive. The theory is tractable analytically, and therefore well-suited for analyzing proposals that affect Social Security. This research examines how retirement age varies with generosity of Social Security benefits. A ten-percent reduction in the value of benefits would lead individuals to postpone retirement by between one-tenth and one-half a year. Individuals who are relatively buffered from the change—because they are wealthier or because they are younger and therefore can more easily increase saving to offset the cut in benefits— will have smaller changes in their retirement ages. Authors’ Acknowledgements This work was supported by a grant from the Social Security Administration through the Michigan Retirement Research Center (Grant #10-P-98358-5). The opinions and conclusions are solely those of the authors and should not be considered as representing the opinions or policy of the Social Security Administration or any agency of the Federal Government. The authors gratefully acknowledge this support. |
| Date: | 2003–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp054&r=lab |
| By: | Hugo Benítez-Silva (SUNY at Stony Brook) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses panel data from the Health and Retirement Study to estimate the relationship between measures of labor supply flexibility and portfolio-choice decisions by utility-maximizing individuals. Seminal research on portfolio decisions over the lifecycle, and recent research on stochastic dynamic programming models with endogenous labor supply and savings decisions suggest that, other things equal, individuals with more labor supply flexibility are likely to invest more in risky assets, regardless of their age, because of the insurance component that flexible labor supply provides. After controlling for panel sample selection and unobserved heterogeneity I find that labor supply flexibility leads to holding between 12% and 14% more wealth in stocks. |
| Date: | 2003–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp056&r=lab |
| By: | Hugo Benítez-Silva (SUNY–Stony Brook); Debra S. Dwyer (SUNY–Stony Brook) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis regarding retirement expectations of married older American couples, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. In prior research we found that individual retirement expectation formation was consistent with the Rational Expectation hypothesis, but in that work spousal considerations were not analyzed. In this research we take advantage of panel data on expectations to test the RE hypothesis among married individuals as well as joint expectations among couples. We find that regardless of whether we assume that married individuals form their own expectations taking spouse’s information as exogenous, or the reports of the couple are the result of a joint expectation formation process, their expectations are consistent with the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior for married couples. |
| Date: | 2003–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp062&r=lab |
| By: | Charles Brown (University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | What happens to the employment status and earnings of workers who accept earlyretirement windows? Using data from the first six waves of HRS (1992-2002) I find that those who accepted window offers experience a sharp decline in employment - most do not go to work elsewhere. Those who do accept jobs elsewhere work fewer hours and receive significantly lower earnings per hour. Transitions to self-employment are more common among window acceptors than other workers. |
| Date: | 2003–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp064&r=lab |
| By: | Elizabeth U. Cascio; Ethan G. Lewis |
| Abstract: | Is the Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT) a measure of achievement or ability? The answer to this question is critical for drawing inferences from studies in which it is employed. In this paper, we test for a relationship between schooling and AFQT performance in the NLSY 79 by comparing test-takers with birthdays near state cutoff dates for school entry. We instrument for schooling at the test date with academic cohort - the year in which an individual should have entered first grade - in a model that allows age at the test date to have a direct effect on AFQT performance. This identification strategy reveals large impacts of schooling on the AFQT performance of racial minorities, providing support for the hypothesis that the AFQT measures school achievement. |
| JEL: | I20 J24 J15 |
| Date: | 2005–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11113&r=lab |
| By: | Zhiyang Jia (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to provide an empirical analysis of the joint retire ment behavior of working couples in Norway. A dynamic programming model is speci.ed and estimated on micro data. The estimation results show that a model, which uses only measures of economic incentives: wages and pension benefits gives a satisfactory fit to the observed retirement pattern. The results also indicate that husbands have higher bargaining power within the household. A hypothetical policy simulation shows that by taxing pension bene.ts as wage income, the labor market participation of both husbands and wives will increase around 4 percentage points at age 65. |
| Keywords: | Household Retirement; Dynamic Programming |
| Date: | 2005–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:405&r=lab |
| By: | Zhiyang Jia (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use a binary choice panel data model to analyze married individuals.retirement behavior in Norway when a new option, AFP early retirement becomes available. We focus our study on the influence of the spouse.s characteristics on early retirement behavior. We find the directions of spousal e¤ects are quite symmetric but women seem to have a much stronger response to their spouses' characteristics than men. The comparison of di¤erent specifications indicates that correct modeling of the error term covariance structure in a panel data binary choice model is quite important. |
| Keywords: | Retirement; Spousal Influence; Panel Data; Random Effects. |
| JEL: | H55 J26 |
| Date: | 2005–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:406&r=lab |
| By: | Robert Baumann |
| Abstract: | Since at least 1960, Appalachians have lower wages, employment rates, and educational attainment than residents elsewhere in the country. Despite educational gains and large federal outlays since 1965, the wage gap has only slightly decreased. Using a sample of full-time workers from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Census project, I identify factors affecting the wage gap between 1970 and 2000. I find several national trends unfavorable to Appalachians after 1980: increasing returns to both observable and unobservable skill, rising income inequality, and the decline of manufacturing, which offset faster Appalachian education growth. There is also a growing gap in education returns between Appalachia and elsewhere in the country since 1980. |
| Keywords: | Appalachia, wage decomposition, poverty, skill differential |
| JEL: | J10 R10 J31 |
| Date: | 2005–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hcx:wpaper:0502&r=lab |
| By: | Reinhold Kosfeld (Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Kassel); Christian Dreger (Author-Workplace-Name: Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH)) |
| Abstract: | Changes in production, employment and unemployment are closely related over the course of the business cycle. However, as exemplified by the laws of Verdoorn (1949, 1993) and Okun (1962, 1970), thresholds seem to be present in the relationship. Due to capacity reserves of the firms, output growth must exceed certain levels for the creation of new jobs or a fall in the unemployment rate. In order to get efficient estimates of these bounds, we take a wide range of information into account. In particular, thresholds for employment and unemployment are determined on the grounds of 180 German regional labour markets. To capture cross section dependencies, a spatial SUR model is built up utilizing the eigenfunction decomposition approach suggested by Griffith (1996, 2000). The results indicate, that minimum output growth sufficient for a rise in employment is below the level which is needed for a simultaneous drop in the unemployment rate. Especially, the thresholds turn out to be about 1.2 and 2.2 percent, respectively. The ordering is related both to demographic changes and institutional settings on the labour market, such as the working of the unemployment benefit system. If spatial effects are not controlled for, the thresholds seem to be overrated. |
| Keywords: | Threshold employment and unemployment, regional labour markets, spatial filtering techniques, spatial SUR analysis |
| JEL: | C21 C23 E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2004–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kas:wpaper:2004-52&r=lab |
| By: | Denis Cogneau (DIAL (Développement, Institutions & Analyses de Long terme)); Michael Grimm (University of Göttingen, Department of Economics, DIW and DIAL (Développement, Institutions & Analyses de Long terme)) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of our paper is to derive instructive analytics on how to account for differentials in demographic variables, and in particular mortality, when performing welfare comparisons over time. The idea is to “correct” in various ways estimated income distribution measures for “sample selection” due to differential mortality. We implement our approach empirically using three waves (1993, 1997 and 2000) of the Indonesian Family Life Surveys (IFLS). We distinguish the direct effect of mortality, i.e. individuals who die are withdrawn from the population and no longer contribute to monetary welfare, from the indirect effect, i.e. the impact on survivors pertaining to the same household of dead individuals, who may experience a decrease or an increase in monetary welfare. For the case of Indonesia, we show that the direct and indirect effects of mortality on the income distribution have opposite signs, but have the same order of magnitude. We also show that the effect of other demographic changes, like changes in the structure of fertility, migration, and educational attainment, dominate the effects of mortality, whether direct or indirect. However, we find that none of these demographic developments are large enough to explain a significant part of the change in income distribution, whether the pre-crisis period (1993-1997) or the post-crisis period (1997-2000) are considered. L’objectif de ce papier est de proposer des instruments analytiques permettant de prendre en compte les différentiels relatifs aux variables démographiques, en particulier la mortalité, lorsqu’on effectue des comparaisons de pauvreté au cours du temps. L’idée de base consiste à « corriger » les estimations de la distribution du revenu de la sélection liée à la mortalité différentielle. Nous mettons en oeuvre notre approche sur les trois vagues (1993, 1997 et 2000) de l’Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS). Nous distinguons l’effet direct de la mortalité, à savoir la disparition des individus décédés de la population de calcul du bien-être monétaire, de l’effet indirect, à savoir l’impact sur les survivants appartenant au même ménage qu’un individu décédé. Dans le cas de l’Indonésie, nous montrons que les effets directs et indirects de la mortalité sur la distribution du revenu ont des signes opposés mais environ le même ordre de grandeur. Nous montrons aussi que l’effet des autres changements démographiques (comme ceux de la structure de la fécondité, de la migration ou de l’éducation), dominent les effets de la mortalité qu’ils soient directs ou indirects. Cependant, nous trouvons enfin qu’aucun de ces changements démographiques n’est assez important pour expliquer une part significative du mouvement de la distribution du revenu, que l’on regarde la période précédant la crise économique (1993-97) ou la période suivante (1997-2000). |
| Keywords: | Mortalité différentielle, Dynamique de la distribution du revenu, comparaisons de bienêtre,décomposition,Differential Mortality, Income Distribution Dynamics, Welfare Comparisons,Decomposition |
| JEL: | D10 D63 J17 |
| Date: | 2004–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200412&r=lab |