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on Knowledge Management and Knowledge Economy |
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Issue of 2018‒07‒09
650 papers chosen by Laura Ştefănescu Centrul European de Studii Manageriale în Administrarea Afacerilor |
| By: | Sta. Romana, Leonardo L. |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the issue of sustainability reporting by corporations, and the framework(s) and guidelines used in the preparation of those annual reports. It takes as its starting point the UN Sustainable Development Goal 12: “Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns”, with its Target 12.6: “Encourage companies, especially large and transnational companies, to adopt sustainable practices and to integrate sustainability information into their reporting cycle”. And it is the Indicator 12.6.1: “Number of companies publishing sustainability reports” that provides the inspiration for the idea for doing this study. The study provides, firstly, a brief background on the group responsible for the sustainability reporting framework widely used by companies, the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI). This is followed with another short background on a second, though newer, group with another framework, the International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC). The study presents - to the best of the author's knowledge - the first comparative study of corporate sustainability reports (and the frameworks used) across ten Emerging Asian economies. It proceeds to this core empirical contribution of the paper by explaining the process how the corporations in Emerging Asia were selected for inclusion in the study. It notes that the companies and the economies of origin were not picked directly for inclusion. The first step was to find reputable corporate sustainability rankings and ratings. Seven information sources yielded a list of 150 companies from ten Emerging Asian economies. These economies are: China, Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore. It then presents the findings from a survey of the sustainability reports of the 150 corporations. Across the entire sample, almost 90 percent cite the use of the GRI guidelines. In three economies with more than just a handful of companies in the sample -- South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand -- all of their companies cite the GRI framework. However, the picture is not as one-sided in India, where less than half cite the GRI. |
| Keywords: | Environmental sustainability, Corporate social responsibility (CSR), Environmental economics, Sustainable development, Sustainable development goals (SDGs), Sustainability reporting, Environment and development, Emerging Asia, Environmental, social and governance (ESG), Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC), Integrated reporting, China, Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore |
| JEL: | D62 M2 O44 Q5 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87318&r=knm |
| By: | Sta. Romana, Leonardo L. |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the issue of sustainability reporting by corporations, and the framework(s) and guidelines used in the preparation of those annual reports. It takes as its starting point the UN Sustainable Development Goal 12: “Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns”, with its Target 12.6: “Encourage companies, especially large and transnational companies, to adopt sustainable practices and to integrate sustainability information into their reporting cycle”. And it is the Indicator 12.6.1: “Number of companies publishing sustainability reports” that provides the inspiration for the idea for doing this study. The study provides, firstly, a brief background on the group responsible for the sustainability reporting framework widely used by companies, the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI). This is followed with another short background on a second, though newer, group with another framework, the International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC). The study presents - to the best of the author's knowledge - the first comparative study of corporate sustainability reports (and the frameworks used) across ten Emerging Asian economies. It proceeds to this core empirical contribution of the paper by explaining the process how the corporations in Emerging Asia were selected for inclusion in the study. It notes that the companies and the economies of origin were not picked directly for inclusion. The first step was to find reputable corporate sustainability rankings and ratings. Seven information sources yielded a list of 150 companies from ten Emerging Asian economies. These economies are: China, Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore. It then presents the findings from a survey of the sustainability reports of the 150 corporations. Across the entire sample, almost 90 percent cite the use of the GRI guidelines. In three economies with more than just a handful of companies in the sample -- South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand -- all of their companies cite the GRI framework. However, the picture is not as one-sided in India, where less than half cite the GRI. |
| Keywords: | Environmental sustainability,Corporate social responsibility (CSR),Environmental economics,Sustainable development,Sustainable development goals (SDGs),Sustainable reporting,Environment and development,Emerging Asia,Environmental, social and governance (ESG),Global Reporting Initiative (GRI),International Reporting Council (IIRC),Integrated Reporting,China,Hong Kong,India,South Korea,Taiwan,Thailand,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore |
| JEL: | D62 M2 O44 Q5 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:179675&r=knm |
| By: | Abdourahmane Barry (College of Education, Taibah University, Saudi Arabia); Fatemah Abdullah Alhazmi (College of Education, Taibah University, Saudi Arabia) |
| Abstract: | To secure a better future in today’s globalized world, a knowledge-based society must be a priority for every nation. For a long time, many nations have relied primarily on passive resources—that is, natural and financial resources—for their existence. However, in the era of globalization dominated by knowledge and information technologies, the focus is shifting towards active resources—that is, human resources. Human resources are perceived by nations as a key engine for competitiveness, economic prosperity, national sovereignty, and human dignity. One of the media through which these human resources are developed is education, which involves teaching and learning. To respond to the increased demands for human competencies to function in a knowledge-based society, educators must adapt to the emerging teaching and learning approaches. One of these emerging approaches is the blended learning approach, which has the ability to improve learning and cost-effectiveness, increase access and flexibility, and help institutions stay up-to-date. Therefore, in contrast to a traditional research paper, this paper describes a teaching and learning practice, with the aim of achieving two objectives: 1) to present a brief background of the blended learning approach and its models and 2) to share a specific blended learning model used to prepare Saudi Arabian doctoral students to be knowledge-based educational leaders. |
| Keywords: | blended learning, educational leaders, knowledge-based, Saudi Arabia |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:ppaper:005&r=knm |
| By: | Aymeric Ricome (JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]); François Affholder (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales); Françoise Gérard (GREEN - Gestion des ressources renouvelables et environnement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Bertrand Muller (LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Charlotte Poeydebat; Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Moussa Sall (ISRA - Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles - ISRA) |
| Abstract: | While crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa are low compared to most other parts of the world, weather-index insurance is often presented as a promising tool, which could help resource-poor farmers in developing countries to invest and adopt yield-enhancing technologies. Here, we test this hypothesis on two contrasting areas (in terms of rainfall scarcity) of the Senegalese groundnut basin through the use of a bio-economic farm model, coupling the crop growth model CELSIUS with the economic model ANDERS, both specifically designed for this purpose. We introduce a weather-index insurance whose index is currently being used for pilot projects in Senegal and West Africa. Results show that insurance leads to a welfare gain only for those farmers located in the driest area. These farmers respond to insurance mostly by increasing the amount of cow fattening, which leads to higher crop yields thanks to the larger production of manure. We also find that subsidizing insurance is not the best possible use of public funds: for a given level of public funding, reducing credit rates, subsidizing fertilizers, or just transferring cash as a lump-sum generally brings a higher expected utility to farmers and leads to a higher increase in grain production levels. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01679763&r=knm |
| By: | Mohammed Hichame Benbitour (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec); Evren Sahin (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec); Yves Dallery (RP - Réseaux et Performance - LIP6 - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Paris 6 - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In this report, we aim at determining the probability distribution of components demand in Alpha plants. Alpha is one of the world's top ten auto parts makers (the company's name has been altered for confidentiality issues). Based on the case of Alpha, we develop a general method of components requisitions and forecasts analysis in Assemble-to-Order systems. This method allows to find the probability distribution of components demand and to estimate the parameters of this distribution. We apply the proposed method to the case of an Alpha plant situated in the west of France. We find that component demand follows a compound Poisson distribution. |
| Keywords: | automotive industry,2,assemble-to-order,demand analysis |
| Date: | 2018–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01802516&r=knm |
| By: | Koutroumpis, Pantelis; Cave, Martin |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of spectrum auction design on the prices paid by telecommunications operators for two decades across 85 countries. Our empirical strategy combines information about competition in the local market, the level of adoption and a wide range of socio-economic indicators and process specific variables. Using a micro dataset of almost every mobile spectrum auction performed so far—both regional and national—we show that auction design affects final prices paid. Two designs (SMRA with augmented switching and CCA with core pricing) result in auctions with systematically higher normalized returns. Further, we document that spectrum ownership appears to affect prices paid in subsequent auctions. We discuss the mechanisms of cost minimization and foreclosure faced by operators in different regulatory environments. Our findings have implications for policy-makers and regulators. |
| Keywords: | Auction; Digital communications; Spectrum; Market power |
| JEL: | C78 D44 L96 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:88371&r=knm |
| By: | Cao, Xiaping (Asian Development Bank Institute); Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Lai, Rose Neng (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | To deal with the rampant increase in housing prices, the Government of the PRC implemented the home purchase restriction (HPR) policy to curb speculation and prevent housing bubbles. This policy triggered an exogenous demand shock to the housing market. Employing a two-step difference-in-differences approach, we find significantly negative policy effects on property transaction volume but a small impact on housing prices. Cities that rely heavily on land sales for fiscal revenue experience a considerably higher increase in property investments after implementing the HPR policy. |
| Keywords: | home purchase restriction policy; demand shock; housing bubble; land financing |
| JEL: | G12 G18 H83 |
| Date: | 2018–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0824&r=knm |
| By: | Piuli Roy Chowdhury (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research; Institute of Economic Growth) |
| Abstract: | This paper reexamines the impact of merger on innovation. Unlike as in Federico et al (2017), it considers the scenario where merged firms combine their research labs. It shows that, in equilibrium, each firm chooses a higher R&D effort after the merger, while industry effort may rise or fall due to the merger. Furthermore, it shows that given a sufficient condition, profits of the merged firm falls and consumer surplus rises in the post merger scenario. These results are in sharp contrast to the findings of Federico et al (2017). |
| Keywords: | Innovation, R&D, Mergers |
| JEL: | D43 G34 L40 O30 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2018-009&r=knm |
| By: | Toke R. Fosgaard (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | The ability to cooperate is a central condition for human prosperity, yet a trend of declining cooperation is one of the most robust observations in behavioral economics. The massive replication of declining cooperation has almost exclusively been carried out in student populations, which opens up for the question of whether the declining cooperation is predictive for the population at large. I make two steps to address this knowledge gap about cooperation stability in the general population. First, I measure repeated cooperation among students and a representative sample. Among the students, I confirm the usual decay effect of cooperation. However, among the non-students, the behavior is hugely different and approaches no decay. Secondly, I stress test the cooperation stability among non-students by manipulating the composition of preferences so that fast decay and no decay are predicted. I observe that the cooperation stability is remarkably unaffected by this manipulation. |
| Keywords: | Cooperation, decay, preference composition, non-students, students |
| JEL: | H41 C92 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:foi:wpaper:2018_08&r=knm |
| By: | Brian A'Hearn; Alexia Delfino; Alessandro Nuvolari |
| Abstract: | A swelling stream of literature employs age-heaping as an indicator of human capital, more specifically of numeracy. We re-examine this connection in light of evidence drawn from nineteenth century Italy: census data, death records, and direct, qualitative evidence on age-awareness and numeracy. Though it can stand in as an acceptable proxy for literacy, our findings suggest that age-heaping is most plausibly interpreted as a broad indicator of cultural and institutional modernisation rather than a measure of cognitive skills. |
| Keywords: | Age-Heaping, Numeracy, Human capital, Italy |
| JEL: | N33 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_148&r=knm |
| By: | Blankenberg, Ann-Kathrin; Gottschalk, Jonas F. A. |
| Abstract: | In the last few decades, socially responsible investments (SRI) have growingly become a relevant issue. The market size in the United States grew from less than a trillion US Dollars to 8.72 trillion US Dollars in 2016, in the past 20 years (US SIF 2016). Approximately 11 trillion Euro was invested in sustainable investments in Europe (EuroSIF 2016). Previous research focused on SRI mutual funds but rarely on green stocks for different reasons. Investing directly in stocks can have different advantages than investment in mutual funds. This article focus on the risk-adjusted competitiveness of a sustainable portfolio based on stocks. We show that a sustainable portfolio does not perform significantly different than a conventional one. The consideration of sustainable criteria does not influence the investment result negatively and could be applied by investors without the need to sacrifice returns. |
| Keywords: | Socially Responsible Investing,Sharpe Ratio,sustainable portfolios,ethical investing |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:349&r=knm |
| By: | Pişkin, Fatih |
| Abstract: | Bu çalışma kamuda yeniliğin amaçlarını, itici güçlerini ve önündeki engelleri belirlemeyi ve İstanbul’daki kamu kurum ve kuruluşlarının yenilik alanındaki mevcut durumlarını ortaya koymayı hedeflemektedir. Bu amaçla geliştirilen anket formu İstanbul’daki kamu kurum ve kuruluşlarına gönderilerek cevaplamaları istenmiştir. En çok gerçekleştirilen yenilik türünün hizmet yeniliği olduğu ve büyük kurumların küçük kurumlara göre daha yenilikçi oldukları sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Yenilik faaliyetlerinin sadece %17'si işbirliği yapılmaksızın kurum bünyesinde gerçekleştirilirken, en çok işbirliği özel sektör ile yapılmıştır. Kurumların %31,5’inin yürüttükleri yenilik faaliyetleri ya da projeleri için finansal desteklerden yararlanırken, genç personele sahip kurumların desteklerden daha fazla yararlandığı belirlenmiştir. Yenilik faaliyetlerinde bilginin kaynağı olarak kurum içi kaynakların kurum dışı kaynaklara kıyasla daha önemli bir yere sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Benzer bir durum yenilik faaliyetlerinin arkasındaki itici güçlerin değerlendirilmesinde de ortaya çıkmaktadır. Kamuda yeniliğin önündeki engellerin başında kurumlarda yeniliği destekleyen ödül ve teşvik mekanizmalarının olmaması gelmektedir. Kamu kurumlarında uzun vadeli plan yapmanın zorluğu, bürokratik idari yapılanma ve finansal kaynakların yetersizliği, yeniliğin önündeki diğer başlıca engeller olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Kamu kurumlarında yeniliğin çoğunlukla kamu hizmetlerinde etkinliğin artırılması, hizmet kalitesinin ve kullanıcı memnuniyetinin artırılması ve idari işlem yükünün azaltılması amaçlarıyla gerçekleştirildiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. |
| Keywords: | Yenilik, Hizmet Yeniliği, Yenilik Ekosistemi, Yenilik Performansı, İnovasyon, Kamu |
| JEL: | O30 O38 O39 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87381&r=knm |
| By: | Marx, Susanne |
| Abstract: | The management of knowledge in projects delivers benefits, while the im-plementation of knowledge management is challenged by (project-specific) issues. Based on practice in interorganizational, cross-border projects funded by the Interreg South Baltic Programme (SBP), this paper analyses the potential value and hindrances of knowledge management in projects funded within Interreg programs. The SBP mentions repeatedly "Transfer of knowledge and exchange of good practices" as an example activity in the program manual (Interreg South Baltic Programme 2016b, pp. 13, 25, 34, 38), however, dedicated knowledge management processes, tools or plans are not part of the com-pulsory application for funding nor its assessment. Knowledge management (KM) can provide value at different levels: to individuals, project partner organisations, the entire programme and even cross-programme as well as other project stakeholders. While KM can support strategy towards building competitive advantage in the programme region, KM processes can enhance the efficiency of project implementation. Worth noting is the impact of KM on individual motivation both for joining a project and for contributing to knowledge exchange. [...] |
| Keywords: | Project Knowledge Management,Interreg,EU project,Inter-organizational Cooperation,Cross-border Cooperation,Knowledge Management Framework,Knowledge Management Processes,Project Knowledge Facilitator |
| JEL: | M16 O13 O22 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:simata:1018032&r=knm |
| By: | Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between a declining labor income share and a falling relative price of capital requires capital and labor to be gross substitutes at the aggregate level (i.e., σ_Agg>1). We argue that this restriction can be relaxed if we distinguish labor by skills and identify differential capital-labor substitutability across skill groups. Using the Morishima elasticity of substitution in a three-factor nested-CES production function, we analytically estimate the elasticity of substitution parameters between capital and skilled labor (ρ) and between capital and unskilled labor (σ). We then derive the necessary conditions for a decline in the labor income share based on ρ and σ, which does not require σ_Agg to be greater than unity. |
| Keywords: | substitution elasticity; labor income share; production function parameters |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E25 |
| Date: | 2018–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0839&r=knm |
| By: | Taisuke Nakata (Board of Governors); Sebastian Schmidt (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:append:17-251&r=knm |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | This document identifies certain barriers and obstacles to the expansion of the digital economy in the region, proposes some strategic lines of action and presents a set of objectives aimed at guiding policy decisions regarding connectivity, electronic commerce, postal performance, consumer protection, digital financial inclusion and online means of payment and cybersecurity, in addition to reviewing chapters pertaining digital matters of regional economic integration agreements. |
| Date: | 2018–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:43633&r=knm |
| By: | Li, T. |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriar:108848&r=knm |
| By: | Domenico Ferraro (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:append:16-161&r=knm |
| By: | Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Using a novel data set, this paper find that households with migrants experience a 26% drop in the labor force participation rate in four economies (Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan) from the Central Asia and South Caucasus region. It is twice as large for households with permanent migrants as for households with seasonal migrants. The results do not alter in the presence of selection on unobservables, model misspecification, and selection bias due to the absence of more productive workers. Direct evidence on the remittances that each household received is not available. The empirical findings do, however, suggest the possibility of an increase in reservation wages. |
| Keywords: | emigration; labor mobility |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0822&r=knm |
| By: | Tim Kaiser; Lukas Menkhoff |
| Abstract: | We conduct a randomized field experiment to study the effects of two financial education interventions offered to small-scale retailers in Western Uganda. The treatments contrast “active learning” with “traditional lecturing” within standardized lesson-plans. We find that active learning has a positive and economically meaningful impact on savings and investment outcomes, in contrast to insignificant impacts of lecturing. These results are not conditional on prior education or financial literacy. The active learning intervention seems to be superior as it works via three cognitive and non-cognitive mechanisms, i.e. increased financial knowledge, self-control, and financial confidence, while lecturing only affects financial confidence. |
| Keywords: | financial behavior, financial literacy, active learning, lecturing, training method, field experiment |
| JEL: | O16 D14 I21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1743&r=knm |
| By: | Dominique Lejeune (CPGE, Louis le Grand) |
| Abstract: | La 4 CV est un des symboles de la France d’après-guerre, des débuts des Trente Glorieuses, de la société de consommation et des loisirs, de la vocation française persistante à produire essentiellement des petites voitures populaires. De surcroît, la 4 CV a longtemps été le symbole de la Régie Renault. Rattrapant et devançant la Citroën 2 CV qui ne verra le jour qu’en 1948, la 4 CV apparaît au Salon de l’auto de 1946 avec l’exergue que lui donne le patron de la Régie, Pierre Lefaucheux : l’automobile n’est pas un objet de luxe, elle doit être « à la portée du plus grand nombre ». Pour tout cela la 4 CV fonde très explicitement son succès, très volontariste, sur la modernisation de l’outil industriel et l’étude de marché. Ce succès n’est pas aperçu d’emblée par les constructeurs concurrents de Renault et par la presse automobile ou sportive, mais la Quatrième République naissante — l’adoption de la constitution par référendum est presque exactement contemporaine du Salon de l’Auto de 1946 — sent bien la carte à jouer : le véhicule nouveau va prouver les capacités industrielles de croissance d’une Régie nationale dont les statuts sont tout jeunes, montrer un visage neuf de la France et de Renault, et enfin assurer le progrès social du pays. Première véritable auto française d’évasion, petite puce de sympathie, gentille « motte de beurre », la 4 CV va offrir des plaisirs divers grâce à la première vitesse non synchronisée et au démarrage en seconde, elle sera une mine de plaisanteries pour les chansonniers radiophoniques, une source d’accidents par le capot, les portes avant, les arbres de roues arrière et la prise au vent, mais la 4 CV est la voiture du renouveau et une arme industrielle et commerciale essentielle pour Renault ! |
| Keywords: | Automobile France,Industrie années 50,Renault,Ingénieurs français |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01791769&r=knm |
| By: | Reckmann, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Word of mouth (WOM) information have become an integral part of consumer decision-making and have revitalized investigations of a social phenomenon to serve marketing objectives. This study addresses the fast-growing yet diverse WOM literature with its heterogeneous background. An objectified and methodologically enriched analysis is carried out to synthesize the literature and realign the richness of online WOM publications with their intellectual foundations. Drawing on meaningful publications, the present analysis systematically processes relevant knowledge to address statistically distinguishable research streams in the field of WOM, their coherence, as well as temporal developments. Results provide evidence of a shared core of WOM research as well as six (sub)streams of varying importance over time that describe two higher research orien-tations. Practical implications can be derived concerning most influential journals dedicated to specific research on WOM. By discussing the various findings, avenues for future research are revealed. |
| Keywords: | Word of mouth,Consumer behavior,Bibliometrics,Co-citation analysis,Text mining |
| JEL: | M30 M31 M10 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:179913&r=knm |
| By: | Gibbs, David; O'Neill, Kirstie |
| Abstract: | The past thirty years have seen an explosion of interest and concern over the detrimental impacts of economic and industrial development. Despite this, the environmental agenda has not featured substantially in the regional studies literature. This paper explores a range of options for regional futures from a ‘clean tech’ economy and the promise of renewed accumulation, through to more radical degrowth concepts focused on altering existing modes of production and consumption, ecological sustainability and social justice. In so doing, we investigate the potential role of regions as drivers of the new green economy, drawing on research into sustainability transitions. |
| Keywords: | Green economy; Transitions research; Clean tech; Degrowth; Regional Development |
| JEL: | Q5 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68392&r=knm |
| By: | Catherine Viot (UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon); Laïla Benraiss-Noailles (IRGO - Institut de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux 4 - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux) |
| Abstract: | Although interest in the subject of human-resource marketing is growing among researchers and practitioners, there have been remarkably few studies on the effects on employees of how benevolent their organization is. This article looks at the link between the presumption of organizational benevolence and the well-being of employees at work. The results of an empirical study of 595 employees show that the presumption of organizational benevolence is positively linked to employee well-being. The effect is indirect, as it is mediated by the perceived level of organizational support. The existence of a link between employee well-being and intention to quit the company is also confirmed. Keywords Human-resource marketing, presumption of organizational benevolence, well-being at work, perceived organizational support, intention to leave the job. List of abbreviations WB Well-being POB Presumption of organizational benevolence POS Perceived organizational support |
| Keywords: | intention to leave the job,perceived organizational support,well-being at work,Human-resource marketing,presumption of organizational benevolence |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01803653&r=knm |
| By: | Alessandro Bucciol (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Martina Manfre' (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Marcella Veronesi (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of financial education on a wide range of wealth decisions using Dutch data from the DNB Household Survey. We consider two indexes representative of basic and advanced financial literacy acquired when adults, and money education received from the family during adolescence. Advanced financial literacy is a significant determinant of all the wealth outcomes under examination, while basic financial literacy affects only the propensity to plan for retirement and the likelihood of holding debt. Studying the individual components of financial literacy, the most relevant effects are associated with the understanding of numeracy and inflation, together with the correct knowledge of market mechanisms. Interestingly, money education received from the family during adolescence is as important as advanced financial literacy to foster individuals’ wealth decisions. We also find evidence of a gender gap, with males’ wealth decisions more affected by higher levels of financial education. Our results highlight the importance of improving financial knowledge not only through proper educational programs when adults, but also in the family environment during adolescence, where teens can learn positive attitudes towards money that are maintained throughout their life. |
| Keywords: | Financial literacy, Money education from family, Wealth decisions, Gender difference |
| JEL: | D14 I22 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:05/2018&r=knm |
| By: | Martin Warland |
| Abstract: | Scholars in innovation studies increasingly highlight that federal governments on the demand side spur innovation activities of government contractors. While government contractors tend to concentrate in capital cities, the kinds of regional innovation system (RIS) that occur around federal agencies remain poorly understood. Drawing on the RIS approach, this paper examines the actors and activities that are placed at the interface between public demand and private supply. The analysis draws on 122 interviews with RIS actors in Bern, The Hague, Ottawa and Washington, D.C. The results indicate that intermediaries play crucial roles in stimulating knowledge exchange between public demand and private supply. One important role relates to getting involved in policy formulation in order to enhance interactive learning in federal procurement practices. In interaction inspiring federal procurement policies, government contractors generate technical knowledge that they also can exploit through private sector clients. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdv:wpaper:credresearchpaper10&r=knm |
| By: | Pereira, Guillermo Ivan (University of Coimbra); Specht, Jan Martin (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Pereira da Silva, Patrícia (University of Coimbra); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing European Union sustainable energy transition has a disruptive potential regarding the role of infrastructure and utilities in the electricity sector. The increased spread of digital technologies, renewable energy sources, and prosumers calls for a swift and well-guided adaptation of the electricity distribution industry towards a smart grids context. We analyze the challenges and opportunities associated with this adaptation through nine multi-stakeholder workshops, held in Germany and Portugal in 2016-2017, engaging distribution system operators (DSOs), researchers, academics, and integrated utility companies to obtain up-to-date insights. Our results indicate uncertainty regarding the value of large-scale rollout of smart meters for DSOs. Also, a corporate culture with resistance to change is observed, challenging the integration of novel technologies and processes. Traditional regulation is seen as a barrier to smart grid investments, is associated with job losses, and knowledge destruction. Policy-makers can benefit from these insights by taking them into account in policy design and market restructuring. |
| Keywords: | Electricity distribution; smart grid; technology; business model; market design; policy |
| JEL: | O18 O25 O33 Q41 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2018_003&r=knm |
| By: | Michael Fritsch; Martin Obschonka; Michael Wyrwich |
| Abstract: | There is a research gap with respect to understanding the role of entrepreneurial culture and tradition for actual start-up behaviour. We combine historical self-employment data (entrepreneurial tradition) with a psycho- logical measure for entrepreneurial attitudes (entrepreneurial culture). The results reveal a positive relationship between the historical level of self- employment in a region and the presence of people with an entrepreneurial personality structure today. Our measure for a regional culture of entrepreneurship is positively related not only to the level of new business formation but also the amount of innovation activity. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, self-employment, new business formation, personality traits, culture, innovation |
| JEL: | L26 N94 O11 O30 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1824&r=knm |
| By: | Mariko Tanaka |
| Abstract: | Sustaining economic growth under rapid aging is one of the most important policy issues in Japan. Because of the difficulty of increasing labor force in an aging society, it is desirable to promote human capital accumulation for improvement of labor quality in the long run. However, since human capital accumulated in the young may become obsolete for elder workers, we cannot achieve sufficient level of human capital to sustain economic growth only through education for the young. Thus, we need recurrent education for the elderly or retired female workers in an aging society as in Japan. Hence, this paper investigates whether we can achieve socially optimal level of human capital when the decision to participate in recurrent education is left to the private sector. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e123&r=knm |
| By: | Charles REGNACQ |
| Abstract: | L'objectif premier est d’estimer l’attractivité d’un territoire lorsque ce dernier est soumis à de potentielles externalités négatives de la part de son activité productive principale. Plus spécifiquement, cette recherche s’attèle à déterminer les possibilités de diversification des activités économiques et d’organisations structurantes aptes à un développement durable au sein d’un espace productif contraint par des risques technologiques majeurs. Le cas de la Communauté de Lacq-Orthez (CCLO) est particulièrement pertinent puisqu’elle est dorénavant bien engagée dans une dynamique de redéveloppement de son territoire et dans une réappropriation de son système productif. En effet, la CCLO affiche une stratégie de diversification des activités productives du Bassin afin de préserver un pôle de qualité de vie à ses administrés en plus du pôle de compétition, assurant ainsi un auto-renforcement de son attractivité vers un développement durable. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tac:wpaper:2017-2018_6&r=knm |
| By: | Michael Fritsch (FSU Jena); Michael Wyrwich (FSU Jena); Martin Obschonka (Queensland University of Technology Business School Brisbane) |
| Abstract: | There is a research gap with respect to understanding the role of entrepreneurial culture and tradition for actual start-up behaviour. We combine historical self-employment data (entrepreneurial tradition) with a psychological measure for entrepreneurial attitudes (entrepreneurial culture). The results reveal a positive relationship between the historical level of self-employment in a region and the presence of people with an entrepreneurial personality structure today. Our measure for a regional culture of entrepreneurship is positively related not only to the level of new business formation but also the amount of innovation activity. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, self-employment, new business for mation, personality traits, culture, innovation |
| JEL: | L26 N94 O11 O30 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2018-007&r=knm |
| By: | Seojeong Lee |
| Abstract: | Under treatment effect heterogeneity, an instrument identifies the instrument-specific local average treatment effect (LATE). With multiple instruments, two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimand is a weighted average of different LATEs. What is often overlooked in the literature is that the postulated moment condition evaluated at the 2SLS estimand does not hold unless those LATEs are the same. If so, the conventional heteroskedasticity-robust variance estimator would be inconsistent, and 2SLS standard errors based on such estimators would be incorrect. I derive the correct asymptotic distribution, and propose a consistent asymptotic variance estimator by using the result of Hall and Inoue (2003, Journal of Econometrics) on misspecified moment condition models. This can be used to correctly calculate the standard errors regardless of whether there is more than one LATE or not. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01457&r=knm |
| By: | Becker, Marco; Daube, Carl Heinz |
| Abstract: | Es wird in diesem Working Paper untersucht, in wie weit sich das Canvas Business Model zum agilen Business Model Management für Unternehmen in der Vorgründungs- und Gründungsphase eignet. |
| Keywords: | Business Model,agil,Business Model Management,Canvas Business Model |
| JEL: | M13 L16 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:179897&r=knm |
| By: | Ana Mickovska-Raleva; Ana Tomovska-Misoska; Olimpija Hristovska-Zaeva; Suzana Cerepnalkovska; Vesna Kostik Ivanovik |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2017-09/9&r=knm |
| By: | Filippo Di Mauro; Fadi Hassan; Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano |
| Abstract: | The efficient allocation of credit is a key element for the success of an economy. Traditional measures of allocative efficiency focus on the Q-theory of investment and, in particular, on the elasticity of finance to investment opportunities proxied by firm real value added. This paper introduces a theory-based alternative measure that focuses instead on the elasticity of credit to firm productivity. In doing so, it develops a simple theoretical framework that delivers clear predictions for the elasticity of credit to current and future productivity depending on capital market frictions. When applied to the novel firm-level dataset of the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet) set up by the EU System of Central Banks, the proposed measure leads to normative statements about the efficiency of credit allocation across the largest Eurozone economies, changing the conclusions that one would reach based on traditional empirical applications of Q-theory. |
| Keywords: | bank credit, capital allocation, productivity, credit constraints |
| JEL: | G10 G21 G31 D92 F3 O16 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1555&r=knm |
| By: | Carole HARITCHABALET; Catherine BOBTCHEFF |
| Abstract: | Biobanks are service-provider infrastructures that offer access to biological resources for academic and industrial researchers. These centers make samples available to researchers, allowing them to test hypotheses and develop innovations. This research helps to improve the diagnosis and therapeutic management of patients. Biological samples are the essential input for the success of this innovation. The management of these biological resources requires considerable scientific and technical expertise. Biobanks must comply with numerous legal and regulatory requirements, particularly concerning the collection and transport of samples and the management of personal data. This data represents all the information that relates to the sample and that allows its use in the best conditions. One of the difficulties for biobanks is to master the collection of this information. Sample production requires a great deal of coordination between various professions to produce a high-quality input. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tac:wpaper:2017-2018_10&r=knm |
| By: | Emilio Depetris-Chauvin; Ruben Durante; Filipe R. Campante |
| Abstract: | We examine whether shared collective experiences can help build a national identity, by looking at the impact of national football teams’ victories in sub- Saharan Africa. Combining individual survey data with information on official matches played between 2000 and 2015, we find that individuals interviewed in the days after a victory of their country’s national team are less likely to identify with their ethnic group than with the country as a whole and more likely to trust people of other ethnicities than those interviewed just before. The effect is sizable and robust and is not explained by generic euphoria or optimism. Crucially, we find that national victories not only affect attitudes but also reduce violence: using plausibly exogenous variation from close qualifications to the African Cup of Nations, we find that countries that (barely) qualified experience significantly less conflict in the following six months than countries that (barely) did not. Our findings indicate that, even when divisions are deeply rooted, shared experiences can work as an effective nation-building tool, bridge cleavages, and have a tangible effect on violence. |
| JEL: | O12 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24666&r=knm |
| By: | Cabrera, José María; Webbink, Dinand |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of a policy aimed at attracting more experienced and better qualified teachers in primary schools in disadvantaged neighborhoods in Uruguay. Teachers in these schools could earn higher salaries. Estimates from regression discontinuity models show that the policy increased experience by two to three years. The policy was especially successful in ‘hiring experience from other schools’, but also increased tenure. However, the effect on student outcomes appears to be small. The distinction between ‘hiring or keeping’ teachers seems important for explaining this result. Keeping teachers appears to be more beneficial for students than hiring experienced teachers. We also find that the effect of the policy is better for schools that replaced teachers with less than five years of experience. |
| Keywords: | teacher salaries, teacher experience, student performance, disadvantaged students. |
| JEL: | I2 J24 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:86972&r=knm |
| By: | Alain Legardez (ADEF - Apprentissage, Didactique, Evaluation, Formation - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | L’objectif de cette contribution est d’avancer dans la caractérisation et la structuration du domaine de recherches sur les Questions Socialement Vives (QSV) – ou Socially Acute Questions (SAQ) –, en revisitant des propositions faites dans la période d’émergence de cette thématique. Il s’agit donc de proposer une nouvelle présentation de travaux de chercheurs du champ, en termes de processus de didactisation de QSV, ainsi que dans une perspective transformatrice. Cette analyse se fait en relation avec notre grille d’analyse des rapports aux savoirs dans l’enseignement et la formation (Legardez, 2004), désormais revisitée dans une perspective de didactique de questions « hyper-vives » – liées notamment à l’écocitoyenneté – à visée transformatrice-critique (Legardez & Jeziorki, 2017) -. L’objectif de nos travaux est aussi d’éclairer la réflexion et les pratiques des acteurs de l’enseignement et de la formation, dans une perspective d’émancipation et de transformation. |
| Keywords: | Questions Socialement Vives,Didactisation,Rapports aux savoirs et aux valeurs,Perspective transformatrice-critique |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01794120&r=knm |
| By: | Seojeong Lee |
| Abstract: | I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals based on GMM estimators even when the model is misspecified. In addition, my bootstrap does not require recentering the moment function, which has been considered as critical for GMM. Regardless of model misspecification, the proposed bootstrap achieves the same sharp magnitude of refinements as the conventional bootstrap methods which establish asymptotic refinements by recentering in the absence of misspecification. The key idea is to link the misspecified bootstrap moment condition to the large sample theory of GMM under misspecification of Hall and Inoue (2003). Two examples are provided: Combining data sets and invalid instrumental variables. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01450&r=knm |
| By: | Diermeier, Matthias; Jung, Markos; Sagner, Pekka |
| Abstract: | Up until the economic and financial crisis, economic conditions in the European regions had been converging. This process has come to a complete standstill in recent years due to lower growth in Eastern Europe and stagnation in Southern Europe. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:302018e&r=knm |
| By: | Carole HARITCHABALET; Catherine BOBTCHEFF |
| Abstract: | We propose to model the relationship between a biobank and a research unit. We are interested in the problem of a research unit that wishes to invest in a new project. This project can potentially lead to a new drug or process whose profitability is uncertain. This project requires access to a collection of biological resources (biological samples and associated data) stored in a biobank. The commercial value of this innovation is unknown by the biobank and the research unit, but it is endogenous, i.e. it depends on the actions and decisions of the different actors. Our objective is to identify how these actions and decisions modify the value of the innovation. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tac:wpaper:2017-2018_9&r=knm |
| By: | Sara Horrell; Jane Humphries |
| Keywords: | Children’s work and pay; Labour Markets; Demography; Britain, long-run |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2018–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_163&r=knm |
| By: | Daniel Danau (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2018–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01806743&r=knm |
| By: | Chris Kirrane |
| Abstract: | Historical examination of the Bretton Woods system allows comparisons to be made with the current evolution of the EMS. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1807.00418&r=knm |
| By: | Despina Tumanoska |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2018-05/15&r=knm |
| By: | Mitchener, Kris James; Ma, Debin |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2016–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:69191&r=knm |
| By: | Mustapha Ridaoui (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Michel Grabisch (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Christophe Labreuche (Thales Research & Technology - Palaiseau) |
| Abstract: | We provide an axiomatisation of the Banzhaf value (or power index) and the Banzhaf interaction index for multichoice games, which are generalisation of cooperative games with several levels of participation. Multichoice games can model any aggregation model in multicriteria decision making, provided the attributes take a finite number of values. Our axiomatisation uses standard axioms of the Banzhaf value for classical games (linearity, null axiom, symmetry), an invariance axiom specific to the multichoice context, and a generalisation of the 2-efficiency axiom, characteristic of the Banzhaf value |
| Keywords: | Banzhaf value; multicriteria decision aid; multichoice games; interaction |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:18007&r=knm |
| By: | Fischer, Martin (University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen); Karlsson, Martin (University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen); Nilsson, Therese (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Schwarz, Nina (University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact on earnings, pensions, and further labor market outcomes of two parallel educational reforms increasing instructional time in Swedish primary school. The reforms extended the annual term length and compulsory schooling by comparable amounts. We find striking differences in the effects of the two reforms: at 5%, the returns to the term length extension were at least half as high as OLS returns to education and bene ted broad ranges of the population. The compulsory schooling extension had small (2%) albeit significant effects, which were possibly driven by an increase in post-compulsory schooling. Both reforms led to increased sorting into occupations with heavy reliance on basic skills. |
| Keywords: | Educational reforms; Compulsory schooling; Term length; Returns to Education |
| JEL: | I28 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2018–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1223&r=knm |
| By: | João Pereira dos Santos (Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Campus de Campolide); David B. Audretsch (Institute for Development Studies, Indiana University, 1315 East 10th Street, SPEA Room 201, Bloomington); Dirk Christian Dohse (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The paper studies the impact of a switch from free to charged highway provision on firm numbers and private sector employment in a panel of Portuguese municipalities covering the period 2007–2013. It exploits the fact that tolls on certain highways in Portugal were unexpectedly introduced in reaction to the sovereign debt crisis to establish causality. Results from a difference-in-differences analysis indicate a significantly negative effect of highway tolls on number of firms and employment in treated municipalities vis-à-vis the comparison group. We also find negative effects of tolls in municipalities not directly traversed by the treated highways, with larger firms and manufacturing firms being most strongly affected. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure provision, highway tolls, regional economic development, natural experiment |
| JEL: | R48 L25 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:0107&r=knm |
| By: | Rebecca Dizon-Ross |
| Abstract: | Does holding schools accountable for student performance cause good teachers to leave low-performing schools? Using data from New York City, which assigns accountability grades to schools based on student achievement, I perform a regression discontinuity analysis and find evidence of the opposite effect. At the bottom end of the school grade distribution, I find that a lower accountability grade decreases teacher turnover and increases joining teachers’ quality. A likely channel is that accountability pressures induce increases in principal effort at lower-graded schools, especially among high-quality principals, and teachers value these changes. In contrast, at the top end of the school grade distribution, where accountability pressures are lower, low accountability grades may negatively impact joining teachers’ quality. |
| JEL: | I2 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24658&r=knm |
| By: | Alain Bonnafous (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | L'auteur nous livre des clés d'analyse des rapports dits "Duron" et "Spinetta". |
| Keywords: | France,réforme du système ferroviaire,rapport Spinetta,rapport Duron,système ferroviaire français,modèle économique ferroviaire |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01787410&r=knm |
| By: | Nishith Prakash (University of Connecticut); Marc Rockmore (Clark University); Yogesh Uppal (Youngstown State University) |
| Abstract: | We study the causal impact of electing criminally accused politicians to state legislative assemblies in India on the subsequent economic performance of their constituencies. Using data on the criminal background of candidates running for state assembly elections and a constituency-level measure of economic activity proxied by intensity of night-time lights, we employ a regression discontinuity design that controls for unobserved heterogeneity across con-stituencies and find 22-percentage point lower yearly growth in the intensity of night-time lights arising from the election of a criminally accused politician. These effects are driven by serious, financial and the number of criminal charges and appear to be concentrated in the less devel-oped and more corrupt Indian states. Similar findings emerge for the provision of public goods using data on India’s major rural roads construction program. |
| Keywords: | Criminal Accusations, Politicians, Night-time Lights, Regression Discontinuity, India |
| JEL: | D72 D73 O40 O12 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2018-08&r=knm |
| By: | Dany Bahar |
| Abstract: | Using a unique dataset on worldwide multinational corporations with precise location of headquarters and affiliates, I present evidence of a trade-off between distance to the headquarters and the knowledge intensity of the foreign subsidiary’s economic activity, emerging from dynamics related to the proximity-concentration hypothesis. This trade-off is strongly diminished the higher the overlap in working hours between the headquarters and its foreign subsidiary. In order to rule out biases arising from confounding factors, I implement a regression discontinuity framework to show that the economic activity of a foreign subsidiary located just across the time zone line that increases the overlap in working hours with its headquarters is, on average, about one percent higher in the knowledge intensity scale. I find no evidence of the knowledge intensity and distance trade-off weakening when a non-stop flight exists between the headquarters and the foreign subsidiary. The findings suggest that lower barriers to real-time communication within the multinational corporation play an important role in the location strategies of multinational corporations. |
| Keywords: | multinational firms, multinational corporations, knowledge, location, proximity concentration hypothesis, FDI |
| JEL: | F23 L22 L25 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7104&r=knm |
| By: | Martin, Ulf |
| Abstract: | According to Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan Nitzan capital is not an economic quantity but a mode of power; it could be sumarized as: "Capital is power quantified in monetary terms". So, what do we do when we "quantify"? What is the nature of "money" in a capitalist society? And, indeed, what is "power" in the first place? In the following I will try to develop a concept of power as the ability of persons to create particular formations. The kind of formations persons can think of depends on the society a person lives in, which can be identified by what Cornelius Castoriadis called its social imaginary significations (SIS). The core SIS of capitalism is rational mastery operating with computational rationality. Computational rationality in turn rest on a particular understanding of how signification works: operational symbolism, as theories by Sybille Krämer (following Leibniz). When the concept of the SIS of modern rationality was developed in the 1950s and 60s, bureaucracy was seen as its main organisational mode or rational mastery. I will argue that capitalisation and bureaucratisation are the two modes of rational mastery which interact with each other. The paper concludes with deliberations on the future of rational mastery and the possibility of "ways out". |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:capwps:201804&r=knm |
| By: | Mikhail Drugov (New Economic School and CEPR); Marta Troya-Martinez (New Economic School and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses a persuasion game where a seller provides (un)biased and (im)precise advice and may be fined by an authority for misleading the buyers. In the equilibrium, biasing the advice and making it noisier are complements. The advice becomes both more biased and less precise with a stricter standard of proof employed by the authority, a larger share of credulous consumers, and a higher buyers' heterogeneity. The optimal policy of the authority is characterized in terms of a standard of proof and resources devoted to the investigation. |
| Keywords: | Advice, Persuasion, Legal Procedure, Consumer Protection |
| JEL: | D18 D8 K4 L1 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0246&r=knm |
| By: | Raf Van Gestel, Tobias Mueller, Johan Bosmans |
| Abstract: | Learning curves in health are of interest for a wide range of medical disciplines, healthcare providers and policy makers. In this paper, we distinguish between three types of learning when identifying overall learning curves: economies of scale, learning from cumulative experience and human capital depreciation. In addition, we approach the question of how treating more patients with speci c characteris- tics predicts provider performance. To soften collinearity problems, we explore the use of Lasso regression as a variable selection method and Theil-Goldberger mixed estimation to augment the available information. We use data from the Belgian Transcatheter Aorta Valve Implantation (TAVI) registry, containing information on the rst 860 TAVI procedures in Belgium. We nd that treating an additional TAVI patient is associated with an increase in the probability of 2-year survival by about 0.16%-points. For adverse events like renal failure and stroke, we nd that an extra day between procedures is associated with an increase in the probability for these events by 0.12%-points and 0.07%-points respectively. Furthermore, we nd evidence for positive learning e ects from physicians' experience with de brillation, treating patients with hypertension and the use of certain types of replacement valves during the TAVI procedure. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1710&r=knm |
| By: | Blagica Petreski; Pavle Gacov |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2018-02/14&r=knm |
| By: | Roxane Bricet (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | In this article, I propose an experimental design to measure the value of instrumental information in a model-free setup. In particular, this study provides operating instructions to test Blackwell’s ranking of informative structures under risk and under ambiguity. Drawing on Ellsberg’s two-color thought experiment, the subject faces three different types of choice situations: simple risk, compound risk and ambiguity. The original experiment is modified by enabling the agent to observe random draws with replacement so that he can learn about the composition of the urns. The proposed design allows to estimate the value of signals that differ in their informativeness and how it relates to ambiguity attitudes. |
| Keywords: | Value of Information, Ambiguity, Blackwell’s theorem, Reduction of Compound Lotteries, Ellsberg paradox, Experiment, Prince. |
| JEL: | C91 D81 D83 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2018-10&r=knm |
| By: | Blagica Petreski; Nikica Mojsoska-Blazevski |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2017-07/8&r=knm |
| By: | Miguel Székely; Pamela Mendoza |
| Abstract: | This paper explores families' investment in skills development through education in a high-inequality, low-education quality country such as Mexico, comparing it to a lower-inequality, higher-quality education country such as the United States. The paper uses a series of high-quality Household Income and Expenditure Surveys for both countries spanning around 20 years and different methodological approaches. Of particular interest is the analysis of education expenditure patterns along the income distribution. Policy implications for both cases are discussed. While in Mexico stimulating private spending in education through public resources might be regressive, the opposite might be the case in the United States. |
| Keywords: | Education Expenditure, Household Expenditure, School Attendance, Children, Private Investment, High School, Household Income, Labor markets, Higher Education, Human Capital Investment, School Enrollment, Household Income, Household Expenditure, Private Investment |
| JEL: | D11 J21 I2 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:8209&r=knm |
| By: | Yaroslav Mukhin |
| Abstract: | This paper studies local asymptotic relationship between two scalar estimates. We define sensitivity of a target estimate to a control estimate to be the directional derivative of the target functional with respect to the gradient direction of the control functional. Sensitivity according to the information metric on the model manifold is the asymptotic covariance of regular efficient estimators. Sensitivity according to a general policy metric on the model manifold can be obtained from influence functions of regular efficient estimators. Policy sensitivity has a local counterfactual interpretation, where the ceteris paribus change to a counterfactual distribution is specified by the combination of a control parameter and a Riemannian metric on the model manifold. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1805.08883&r=knm |
| By: | Shitovitz, Benyamin; Selay, A.; Moreno Ruiz, Diego; Haimanko, Ori; Einy, Ezra; Aiche, A. |
| Abstract: | In Tullock contests in which the common value of the prize is uncertain, information advantages are rewarded: if a player i has better information about the value than some other player j, then the payoff of i is greater or equal to the payoff of j, regardless of the information of the other players. |
| Keywords: | Information Advantage; Common Value; Tullock Contests |
| JEL: | D82 D44 C72 |
| Date: | 2018–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:27107&r=knm |
| By: | Maija Halonen-Akatwijuka; Evagelos Pafilis |
| Abstract: | We analyze optimal ownership of public goods in a repeated game focusing on common ownership. Under common ownership an owner’s access to the public good cannot be restricted by other owners. We find that under common ownership both the value of the relationship and the gain from deviation are high. Common ownership is optimal when the marginal return to maintenance investments is low consistent with the stylized facts. |
| Keywords: | public goods, common pool resources, property rights, repeated games, common ownership, joint ownership. |
| JEL: | D23 H41 L14 L33 |
| Date: | 2018–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:18/700&r=knm |
| By: | Ludovico Latmiral |
| Abstract: | We analyze correlations of stock returns via a series of widely adopted market and stock parameters which we refer to as \textit{explanatory variables}. We subsequently exploit the results to propose a quantitative adaptive technique to infer predictions on expected relations among future stock returns. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.05160&r=knm |
| By: | Raf Van Gestel, Tobias Mueller, Johan Bosmans |
| Abstract: | Procedural failures of physicians or teams in interventional healthcare may positively or negatively predict subsequent patient outcomes. We identify this effect by applying (non-)linear dynamic panel methods to data from the Belgian Transcatheter Aorta Valve Implantation (TAVI) registry containing information on the first 860 TAVI procedures in Belgium. We find that a previous death of a patient positively and significantly predicts subsequent survival of the succeeding patient. We find that these learning from failure effects are not long-lived and that learning from failure is transmitted across adverse events. |
| Keywords: | Physician behavior, Learning, Failure |
| JEL: | I10 I13 I18 C93 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1809&r=knm |
| By: | Balandina, Galina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei G. (Russian Foreign Trade Academy; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tochin, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Modern customs administration in Russia in comparison with the best world practices provides insufficient efficiency both for the state and for participants in foreign economic activity. The level of unreliable declaring by the business or importing goods into the country bypassing the established rules remains high. This leads to such negative consequences as unfair competition, evasion from payment of internal taxes, escalation of shadow turnover. The discretionary powers of customs authorities and their officials with existing control technologies (the multiplicity of supervisory bodies and the lack of necessary interaction between them) create conditions for administrative pressure on the business that promotes corruption. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:061833&r=knm |
| By: | Farah, Alfa |
| Abstract: | Fiscal disparity leads to a yardstick bias, in that incumbents in fiscally-rich jurisdictions can provide more public goods, extract more rents and yet have a higher probability to be reelected. This study further emphasizes disparity among jurisdictions, not only in terms of fiscal resources but also of costs of rent appropriation. In a setting in which jurisdictions with a higher fiscal capacity have lower costs of rent appropriation whilst those with a lower fiscal capacity have higher costs of rent appropriation, the difference in costs of rent appropriation might moderate the bias caused by the fiscal disparity. |
| Keywords: | accountability,rent,fiscal capacity,institutions,yardstick competition |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H77 D72 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:22018&r=knm |
| By: | Erik Lindqvist; Robert Östling; David Cesarini |
| Abstract: | We surveyed a large sample of Swedish lottery players about their psychological well-being and analyzed the data following pre-registered procedures. Relative to matched controls, large-prize winners experience sustained increases in overall life satisfaction that persist for over a decade and show no evidence of dissipating with time. The estimated treatment effects on happiness and mental health are significantly smaller, suggesting that wealth has greater long-run effects on evaluative measures of well-being than on affective ones. Follow-up analyses of domain-specific aspects of life satisfaction clearly implicate financial life satisfaction as an important mediator for the long-run increase in overall life satisfaction. |
| JEL: | D69 I31 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24667&r=knm |
| By: | Michel Forsé (Centre Maurice Halbwachs); Maxime Parodi (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | Dans nos sociétés modernes, on considère souvent que l’individualisme conduit à négliger et à dévaloriser le rôle de l’héritage et de la transmission sous tous ses aspects – comme si l’individu ne pouvait affirmer son individualité qu’en rejetant ce qu’il doit à ses aïeuls. Pourtant, aujourd’hui encore, la socialisation familiale exerce une influence notable sur les goûts et les croyances des enfants et des adultes – même si la démultiplication des sources d’influences peut en réduire l’importance. Quel est aujourd’hui le poids de ces transmissions familiales sur les convictions et les engagements des individus ? (Premier paragraphe) |
| Keywords: | transmission familiale; génération; héritage |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/32qa7sqcrl8durbv3uukn3ku9g&r=knm |
| By: | Duda-Nyczak, Marta.; Viegelahn, Christian. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relation between firms’ export and import status, and the quantity and types of employment they offer, using firm-level data from 47 African countries in 2006-14. The paper also analyses how the quality of policies at the country-level relates to the difference between exporters and non-exporters, and between importers and non-importers. This paper shows that both exporters and importers employ on average more full-time permanent workers than their respective non-trading counterparts, even after controlling for a wide range of firm-level characteristics. This employment premium is larger in countries with a better quality of infrastructure. In addition, importers employ higher shares of non-production workers compared with non-importers. In addition, both exporters and importers are characterized by higher shares of female employment than their non-trading counterparts. Successful gender policies are positively associated with the female employment premium of trading firms. This paper also finds that there is a larger proportion of temporary workers in the workforce of exporters compared with non- exporters, but a better developed rural sector reduces this difference in the use of temporary manpower. The results presented in this paper suggest that the quality of policies has an impact on the extent to which trading firms are able to generate decent job opportunities in Africa. |
| Keywords: | commercial policy, commercial enterprise, trade, working conditions, Africa |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987693502676&r=knm |
| By: | Michael Bleaney; Atsuyoshi Morozumi; Zakari Mumuni |
| Abstract: | Previous research on inflation targeting (IT) has focused on high-income countries (HICs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Only recently has enough data accumulated for the performance of IT in low-income countries (LICs) to be assessed. We show that IT has not so far been effective in reducing in inflation in LICs, unlike in EMEs. Weak institutions, a typical feature in LICs, help explain this result, particularly under fl oating exchange rate regimes. Our interpretation is that poor institutions, leaving fiscal policy unconstrained, impair central banks' ability to conduct monetary policy in a way consistent with IT. |
| Keywords: | infl ation targeting, low-income countries, institutions |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcfc:18/08&r=knm |
| By: | Robert Allen; Ekaterina Khaustova |
| Abstract: | The paper measures real wages in St Petersburg, Moscow, and Kursk between 1853 and 1937 and compares them to real wages in Boston, Manchester, Bombay, and Cairo. Russian living standards grew little between 1853 and 1913 and were like Egypt and India. Wages in the UK and USA were 2.5 - 5 times greater. Real wages in Russia almost doubled between 1913 and 1928. When seen in a Russian perspective, this looks like a big advance; when seen internationally, it is much less so. Real wages dropped to their pre-War level between 1928 and 1937 during the industrialization drive. |
| Keywords: | Russia, real wages, economic development, inequality, revolution |
| JEL: | D33 J30 N93 N94 P22 P23 |
| Date: | 2017–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_158&r=knm |
| By: | Görg, Holger |
| Abstract: | Goal 8 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) calls for promoting "sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all". One driver that may help to achieve this goal is foreign direct investment (FDI). It has the potential to foster productivity growth and generate quality employment, and also - though many globalization critics may disagree - to help moving towards more socially and environmentally sustainable business practices (e.g., Görg, Hanley, Hoffmann, Seric, 2015). This short note reviews briefly what we do know from recent work using large scale firm level datasets about the potential benefits or costs of foreign direct investment as regards these aspects. It then sets out what else we would want to know, and how to go about collecting this knowledge. Based on this, some policy conclusions are offered. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kcgpps:3&r=knm |
| By: | Dilger, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Es werden sieben verschiedene Szenarien zum Euroausstieg vorgestellt. Ein Euroausstieg ist durchaus einseitig möglich, sollte jedoch besser einvernehmlich erfolgen, gegebenenfalls auch erst einmal nur auf Zeit. |
| JEL: | E42 F33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:52018&r=knm |
| By: | Pierre Madec (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Mathieu Plane (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | La montée en charge des différentes mesures fiscales prises dans le cadre de la Loi de finances pour 2018 devrait affecter de manière différente les ménages selon qu’ils se situent en bas ou en haut de la distribution des niveaux de vie. Si, globalement, les mesures du budget devraient être quasiment neutres sur le pouvoir d’achat global des ménages en moyenne en 2018, les ménages les plus aisés bénéficieraient dès 2018 des réformes visant à réduire la taxation du capital (suppression de l’ISF et instauration du PFU sur les revenus du capital). Les 17,7 millions de ménages éligibles à l’exonération totale de la taxe d’habitation en 2020 devraient quant à eux voir celle-ci réduite de l’ordre de 30 % dès 2018. Les ménages du bas de la distribution devraient bénéficier des revalorisations de certains minima sociaux et de la Prime d’activité. [Premières lignes] |
| Keywords: | Epargne; Fiscalité; Loi de Finances 2018; Niveau de vie; Politique fiscale; Pouvoir d'achat |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/39mbei82r8t5824626eo6a6d8&r=knm |
| By: | Lindeboom, Maarten (vu university amsterdam); Montizaan, Raymond (ROA / Dynamics of the labour market) |
| Keywords: | natural experiment, regression discontinuity, retirement, private wealth, public wealth, crowding out, substitution rate |
| JEL: | J26 H55 J14 |
| Date: | 2018–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2018019&r=knm |
| By: | Yves Crozet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | L’insécurité routière et les temps de parcours (gains ou pertes) ont été les premiers effets externes du transport intégrés dans le calcul économique, il y a plus de 50 ans. Les valeurs tutélaires correspondantes ont évolué de façon divergente. Depuis 1970, la valeur de la vie humaine a progressé presque 5 fois plus vite que la valeur du temps. Malgré ce prix relatif croissant, l’insécurité occupe une place réduite dans les coûts externes du transport, surtout si nous appliquions les méthodes proposées dans le manuel européen (RICARDO-AEA). Ce résultat n’est pas acceptable alors que le nombre de morts sur les routes a recommencé à croître depuis 2013. Comment assurer une cohérence entre les méthodes d’évaluation et les objectifs des politiques publiques ? |
| Keywords: | Coûts de congestion,coûts d’insécurité routière,méthodes de calcul,coûts externes du transport,valeur de la vie statistique |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01792545&r=knm |
| By: | Altay, Serdar |
| Abstract: | Policy debate on the implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) for Turkey has focused almost exclusively on “how” Turkey can/will take part in a forthcoming transatlantic deal. Turkey's association with a TTIP has largely been conceived as an inevitable and beneficial policy choice to re‐engage Ankara with the Atlantic alliance and emerging transatlantic trade framework. The arguments for extending TTIP to Turkey have mostly been built upon a conventional understanding of preferential trade agreements. The debate has not provided a comprehensive assessment of costs and benefits for Turkey's exclusion from or joining TTIP as it dismissed multiple dimensions of the “deep integration” agenda which underpinned the transatlantic talks. This paper intends to contribute to the “why” debate with a thorough analysis of critical issues on the transatlantic agenda by evaluating economic and policy implications of TTIP both for exclusion and association scenarios together with associated compliance and adjustment costs. |
| Keywords: | TTIP, Turkey, Preferential Trade Agreements |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87454&r=knm |
| By: | JIN SEO CHO (Yonsei University); JIN SEOK PARK (Yonsei University); SANG WOO PARK (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the mixture hypothesis of conditional geometric distributions using a likelihood ratio (LR) test statistic based on that used for unconditional geometric distributions. As such, we derive the null limit distribution of the LR test statistic and examine its power performance. In addition, we examine the interrelationship between the LR test statistics used to test the geometric and exponential mixture hypotheses. We also examine the performance of the LR test statistics under various conditions and confirm the main claims of the study using Monte Carlo simulations. |
| Keywords: | mixture of conditional geometric distributions, likelihood ratio test, unobserved heterogeneity, Gaussian stochastic process |
| JEL: | C12 C41 C80 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2018rwp-123&r=knm |
| By: | Hervé Péléraux (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | Selon l’indicateur avancé de l’OFCE pour la France, bâti sur les enquêtes de conjoncture publiées par l’INSEE le 24 mai, la croissance de l’économie française serait voisine de +0,4 % au deuxième et au troisième trimestre 2018. Après la nette embellie de 2017, et la retombée de la croissance au premier trimestre (+0,3 %) marquée par le calendrier des mesures fiscales (voir « Économie française : ralentissement durable ou passager ? »), les perspectives trimestrielles apparaissent moins favorables en 2018 qu’en 2017. |
| Keywords: | Conjoncture; Croissance; Indicateur avancé; Climat des affaires |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6h23oau4ls914r8f8846kr1ngh&r=knm |
| By: | Sakai Ando |
| Abstract: | I study the welfare implications of size-dependent firm regulation policies (SDPs) in the presence of entrepreneurial risks. Although SDP has been considered a source of misallocation, I show that, once entrepreneurial risks are taken into account, SDP can improve efficiency. Quantitatively, I show that, based on French data, removing the SDP leads to output and welfare loss by 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in opposition to the output gain reported by the previous literature that abstracts from risks. Qualitatively, I solve an optimal non-linear SDP problem and show that the observed SDP shares certain features with the optimal SDP. The analysis uncovers a novel tradeoff between the inefficiencies of the intensive and extensive margins. In extension, it is shown that (1) whether SDPs improve efficiency depends on the level of financial development and (2) capital accumulation and consumption-smoothing motive further justify SDPs. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1033&r=knm |
| By: | Vahagn Jerbashian (Universitat de Barcelona, BEAT, and CERGE-EI); Anna Kochanova (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | Over the past few decades, the Internet has become the major tool for communication, greatly replacing the traditional telecommunication technologies. We use industry-level evidence from 21 European countries and the period 1997-2007 and identify the changing effects of traditional telecommunication technologies and the Internet on the functioning of markets. Specifically, we show that the effect of the traditional telecommunication technologies on competition in services and goods markets has dissipated and has become insignificant during this period. In contrast, the effect of the Internet has gained a significant momentum. |
| Keywords: | Telecommunications, The Internet, Product Market Competition. |
| JEL: | L16 O25 O33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:377web&r=knm |
| By: | Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio (Bank of England); Pesaran, M Hashem (Department of Economics); Rebucci, Alessandro (Johns Hopkins University) |
| Abstract: | Measures of economic uncertainty are countercyclical, but economic theory does not provide definite guidance on the direction of causation between uncertainty and the business cycle. This paper takes a common-factor approach to the analysis of the interaction between uncertainty and economic activity in a multi-country model without a priori restricting the direction of causality at the level of individual countries. Motivated by the observation that cross-country correlations of volatility series are much higher than cross-country correlations of GDP growth series, we set up a multi-country version of the Lucas tree model with time-varying volatility consistent with this stylized fact and use it to identify two common factors, a real and a financial one. We then quantify the absolute and the relative importance of the common shocks as well as country-specific volatility and GDP growth shocks. The paper highlights three main empirical findings. First, it is shown that most of the unconditional correlation between volatility and growth can be accounted for by shocks to the real common factor, which is extracted from world growth in our empirical model and linked to the risk-free rate in the theoretical model and in the data. Second, the share of volatility forecast error variance explained by the real common shock and by country-specific growth shocks amounts to less than 5%. Third, common financial shocks explain about 10% of the growth forecast error variance, but when such shocks occur, their negative impact on growth is large and persistent. In contrast, country-specific volatility shocks account for less than 1%-2% of the forecast error variance decomposition of country-specific growth rates. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty; business cycle; common factors; real and financial global shocks; multi-country; identification; realized volatility |
| JEL: | E44 F44 G15 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0730&r=knm |
| By: | Saori CHIBA |
| Abstract: | We study indeterminacy of indicative meanings (disagreements about meanings of messages among players), a kind of language vagueness examined in Blume and Board (2013). They, using a cheap talk model in which the state distribution and the players’ language competence were ex-ante uncertain, demonstrated that this vagueness occurs as the equilibrium language. We expand the work of Blume and Board by using a model between an uninformed decision maker and an informed agent in which the state-distribution and the state are both exante uncertain. We show that this two-dimensional uncertainty also leads to indeterminacy of indicative meanings, that is, to a set of conditions in which an agent with different perceptions of state-distribution intentionally uses the same symbol for the different extents of information on the state. Our vagueness can lead to welfare improvement. |
| Keywords: | Information. Language. State-Uncertainty. Vagueness. |
| JEL: | D82 D83 M14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-18-003&r=knm |
| By: | Delautre, Guillaume. |
| Abstract: | The information and communications technology (ICT) manufacturing sector is one of the key employers worldwide and has undergone dramatic evolutions in the last decades. These evolutions stem from massive reconfigurations in the industry (vertical disintegration, specialization, outsourcing and relocation of production to cheaper countries) which began in the early 1980s leading to a deep transformation in the international division of labour. This paper investigates the evolutions of the supply chain in the sector since 2000 and discusses the impact of these evolutions in terms of distribution of the value added across firms and across countries. During this period, most of the production activities have migrated to East Asia and particularly China, and firms in developed economies have specialized in more strategic activities such as design, development or marketing. Data show large relocations of jobs across countries which have not been accompanied yet by an equivalent change in the distribution of value added. This apparent paradox is largely explained by the vertical specialization of firms and countries as shown by different products case-studies. Hence, economic development depends more on the position in the value than on the simple participation to it. The opportunities and conditions for economic upgrading in the ICT value chain are discussed through the two examples of Taiwanese contract manufacturers and Chinese mobile phone companies. We show that the high modularity of the sector lowers the entry barriers for newcomers but might also turn out to be a disadvantage for less technologically capable firms in the longer term. |
| Keywords: | information technology, manufacturing, value chains, labour mobility, relocation of industry, trend, case study, Asia, China, Taiwan, China |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994948593302676&r=knm |
| By: | Marjan Petreski; Nikica Mojsoska-Blazevski |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2017-11/11&r=knm |
| By: | Giovanni Caggiano (University of Padova); Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks originating in the US on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favor of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment in Canada is shown to react to uncertainty shocks in economic busts only. Such shocks explain about 13% of the variance of the 2-year ahead forecast error of the Canadian unemployment rate in periods of slack vs. just 2% during economic booms. Counterfactual simulations lead to the identification of a novel "economic policy uncertainty spillovers channel". According to this channel, jumps in US uncertainty foster economic policy uncertainty in Canada in the first place and, because of the latter, lead to a temporary increase in the Canadian unemployment rate. Evidence of asymmetric spillover effects due to US EPU shocks are also found for the UK economy. This evidence, which refers to a large economy having a low trade intensity with the US, supports our view that a channel other than trade could be behind our empirical results. |
| Keywords: | Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks, Spillover Effects, Unemployment Dynamics, Smooth Transition Vector AutoRegressions, Recessions |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0220&r=knm |
| By: | Wing Fung Chong; Gechun Liang |
| Abstract: | This paper solves the optimal investment and consumption strategies for an ambiguity-averse agent in an incomplete financial market. The agent seeks her best and robust strategies via optimizing her robust forward investment and consumption preferences. The market incompleteness arises from investment constraints of the agent. Her robust forward preferences and the associated optimal strategies are represented via infinite horizon BSDEs. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1807.01186&r=knm |
| By: | Michel Grabisch (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Christophe Labreuche (Thales Research & Technology - Palaiseau); Mustapha Ridaoui (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We address in this paper the problem of how to define an importance index in multicriteria decision problems, when a numerical representation of preference is given. We make no restrictive assumption on the model, which could have discrete or continuous attributes, and in particular, it is not assumed that the model is monotonically increasing or decreasing with respect to (w.r.t.) the attributes. Our analysis first considers discrete models, which are seen to be equivalent to multichoice games. We propose essentially two importance indices, namely the signed importance index and the absolute importance index, both based on the average variation of the value of the model induced by a given attribute. We provide several axiomatizations for these importance indices, extend them to the continuous case, and finally illustrate them with examples (classical simple models and a example of discomfort evaluation based on real data) |
| Keywords: | Multiple criteria analysis; Multichoice game; Shapley value; Choquet integral |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:18008&r=knm |
| By: | Fukao, Kyoji (Asian Development Bank Institute); Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We show that σ-convergence in regional productivity growth can be approximated by σ-convergence in sectoral productivity growth and σ-convergence in structural transformation-led productivity growth. Applying this framework to Japanese prefecture-level data from 1874 to 2008, we find support for substantial convergence effects of structural transformation in the post-WWII years. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation; labor productivity; regional convergence; Japan |
| JEL: | O10 O40 |
| Date: | 2018–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0833&r=knm |
| By: | Jaime Ahcar (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Jean-Marc Siroën (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | Regional Trade Agreements have emerged in an environment of stalled multilateral tradenegotiations. Although the impact of Regional Trade Agreements on international tradehas been well documented, scant attention has been paid to empirical studies exploringtheir heterogeneity from the point of view of deep integration. We set out to determinewhether deeper Regional Trade Agreements promote trade more effectively than lessambitious ones. We generate credible deep integration indicators using two recentlyavailable datasets from the World Trade Organization and the World Trade Institute. Wethen test the effect of depth on trade using a gravity model. We treat additive indicatorsas factor variables and use multiple correspondence analysis to obtain distilled indicatorsof deep integration to offer new insights and confirm recent deep integration findings.We find that deeper Regional Trade Agreements increase trade more than shallowagreements do, irrespective of whether the provisions they contain are within or beyondthe competence of the World Trade Organization. |
| Keywords: | International Trade,Trade Liberalization,Regional Trade Agreements,Deep Integration,Gravity Model |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01619821&r=knm |
| By: | Mickaël Portela (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé); Camille Signoretto (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé) |
| Abstract: | Cet article se propose d’étudier l’influence de la qualité de l’emploi et des aspirations professionnelles des jeunes salariés en contrats à durée indéterminée sur la nature volontaire des mobilités (démissions). À partir de l’enquête Génération 98 à dix ans, les résultats montrent que ce sont les salariés souhaitant améliorer leur situation en matière de salaire, d’autonomie ou encore de reconnaissance au travail, qui ont une probabilité plus forte de partir volontairement de leur emploi. À côté de ces souhaits individuels, les caractéristiques des emplois influencent également la probabilité de mobilité volontaire : être à temps partiel augmente cette probabilité, ainsi qu’être dans une position socioprofessionnelle favorable (cadre). Enfin, ces mobilités volontaires semblent davantage associées à une amélioration ou à une stabilité de la situation professionnelle des salariés. |
| Keywords: | Mobilité professionnelle,Jeunes,Démissions,Aspirations professionnelles,Qualité de l'emploi,Enquête Génération |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01446430&r=knm |
| By: | Valéry D. Jiongo; Pierre Nguimkeu |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new bootstrap procedure for mean squared errors of robust small-area estimators. We formally prove the asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap method and examine its finite sample performance through Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that our procedure performs well and outperforms existing ones. We also apply our procedure to the estimation of the total volume and value of cash, debit card and credit card transactions in Canada as well as in its provinces and subgroups of households. In particular, we find that there is a significant average annual decline rate of 3.1 percent in the volume of cash transactions, and that this decline is relatively higher among high-income households living in heavily populated provinces. Our bootstrap estimator also provides indicators of quality useful in selecting the best small-area predictors from among several alternatives in practice. |
| Keywords: | Econometric and statistical methods, Bank notes |
| JEL: | C13 C15 C83 E E41 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:18-28&r=knm |
| By: | Zoran Sapuric; Sanela Shkrijelj; Blazhe Josifovski |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2018-01/12&r=knm |
| By: | Cecilia Temponi; Valérie Botta-Genoulaz (DISP - Décision et Information pour les Systèmes de Production - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées) |
| Date: | 2017–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01789167&r=knm |
| By: | Maja Parnardzieva-Zmejkova; Vladimir Dimkovski |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2017-10/10&r=knm |
| By: | A. Arrighetti; F. Landini |
| Abstract: | Questo lavoro offre una spiegazione della (apparente) stagnazione della produttività nel manifatturiero italiano negli anni che precedono la Grande Recessione. Contrariamente ad un’opinione diffusa che vuole l’Italia affetta da un declino della produttività uniforme e difficile da arrestare, l’effettiva stagnazione della produttività aggregata appare in realtà la risultante di un effetto composizione tra le performance di tipologie di imprese molto diverse. Alcune imprese nell’ultimo ventennio hanno adottato strategie proattive volte a migliorare il livello qualitativo e l’efficienza delle produzioni, ottenendo risultanti di rilievo anche e soprattutto nei mercati esteri. Altre si sono invece orientate su strategie di compressione dei costi, riducendo sensibilmente gli investimenti in capitale fisico e capitale umano. In mezzo a questi due estremi, ci sono poi imprese che hanno adottato orientamenti strategici misti caratterizzati da interventi, parziali, incompleti o poco coerenti tra loro. Queste tre tipologie di imprese presentano forti e persistenti differenziali di produttività intra-settoriale, che risultano particolarmente elevati nel confronto tra primo e secondo gruppo. Tali differenziali in aggregato tendono a compensarsi. A ciò si aggiungono differenziali di profittabilità molto contenuti. La combinazione di questi effetti determina una persistente stagnazione della produttività aggregata. La nostra tesi è che questa differenziazione dei profili strategici sia il risultato dei cambiamenti economici e istituzionali che hanno caratterizzato l’economia italiana tra la seconda metà degli anni Novanta e l’inizio degli anni Duemila. Tali cambiamenti includono sia shock esterni come l’avvento della globalizzazione, sia intensi percorsi di riforma istituzionale aventi per oggetto una ampia varietà di aspetti come mercato del lavoro, fiscalità d’impresa, diritto societario, mercato dei capitali e regolazione monetaria. |
| Keywords: | Firm Heterogeneity; Productivity; Profit; Misallocation; Capabilities; Institutions; Italy |
| JEL: | D24 L11 L25 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:par:dipeco:2018-ep01&r=knm |
| By: | Muriel Gilardone (Condorcet Center for Political Economy, Normandie Univ, UNICAEN, CNRS, CREM, F-14000 Caen, France) |
| Keywords: | Our paper shows that Sen’s (2009) alternative theory of justice is greatly influenced by 1) his work on famines ; 2) his empirical work on gender inequalities, specifically within the Indian society, that helped him to refine his approach to hunger ; and 3) his involvement in the creation of the human development approach. All these engagements — seemingly completely separate from his contribution to the theories of justice — have, in fact, fostered the formulation of a novel approach in which agency and public reasoning are the core elements. |
| JEL: | A13 B31 B41 B54 D63 D78 I32 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cccrwp:2018-01-ccr&r=knm |
| By: | Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Yury Zaytsev |
| Abstract: | Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been the main driver of restructuring and modernisation in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper looks into FDI stocks and flows in a dynamic and cross-country perspective, comparing the key EAEU countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia) as well as DCFTA countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) with selected EU-CEE peers (Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in the neighbourhood. The study shows that EAEU and DCFTA countries have not been particularly attractive for foreign investors taking out round tripping inflows from offshore destinations, the accumulated FDI would be even lower. This explains a lot why restructuring in the region stalls. This pattern can change only with marked improvements in the domestic regulatory environment and investment climate. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, FDI flows and stocks, Eastern Europe, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, FDI by key partners and sectors |
| JEL: | C82 F13 F14 O57 P23 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:428&r=knm |
| By: | Victor Stango (University of California-Davis); Joanne Yoong (University of Southern California, National University of Singapore, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Jonathan Zinman (Dartmouth College and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Behavioral economics lacks empirical evidence on some foundational questions. We adapt standard elicitation methods to measure multiple behavioral factors per person in a representative U.S. sample, along with financial condition, cognitive skills, financial literacy, classical preferences, and demographics. Individually, behavioral factors are prevalent, distinct from other decision inputs, and correlate negatively with financial outcomes in richly-conditioned regressions. Conditioning further on other B-factors does not change the results, validating common practice of modeling B-factors separately. Corrections for low task/survey effort modestly strengthen the results. Our findings provide bedrock empirical foundations for behavioral economics, and offer methodological guidance for research designs. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp378&r=knm |
| By: | Urgaia; Worku R. |
| Abstract: | This study deals with the role of human capital resources in economic growth. In economic growth, human capital is an important stock component that can affect the gross national income GNI more than gross domestic product GDP since GNI comprises the GDP itself and other income resources obtained from abroad. The empirical results of transmission mechanism channels in vector autoregressive model indicate that the observed human capital has long-run effects on the national income in a panel of nine East African countries from the year 1980 to 2015.The short-term transmission mechanism channels show that there is an important contribution of human capital resources HCR to the development of physical capital stock through GNI. The GNI has also a positive impact on the accumulation of physical capital stock via HCR. In addition, we also apply the time scaling decomposition of a panel wavelet analysis in Granger causality tests. The tests show that HCR and the GNI have a bi-directional causal relationship in the short-run, medium-and long-run. The recent trend shows that East Africa has the lowest level of human capital development which raises the issues of employment challenges faced by women more than men although it has achieved a rapid growth in expanding education. We, therefore, suggest that more due attention should be given to human capital resources than any other in attempt to achieve sustainable development in the process of successful economic progress. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Panel VAR,Transmission Channel,HCR,GNI and Granger Wavelet Analyses |
| JEL: | J00 J24 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:218&r=knm |
| By: | Christophe Blot (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Paul Hubert (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Rémi Odry (Université Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense - Paris 10 (UP10)) |
| Abstract: | Cette étude analyse les effets différenciés des politiques monétaires de la BCE et de la Réserve fédérale sur l'évolution du taux de change euro/dollar. Deux types d'effets sont quantifiés : l'effet de signal lié à l'annonce des politiques monétaires et l'effet macroéconomique lié à la mise en oeuvre de celle-ci. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que l'effet de signal des décisions de la Réserve fédérale serait plus important que celui associé aux décisions de la BCE mais que les chocs de politique monétaire en zone euro se traduiraient par une réaction plus forte du taux de change euro/dollar. |
| Keywords: | politique monétaire; taux de change |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3eer83kt1o95mq6mdn6vargp2g&r=knm |
| By: | Lanz, Rainer; Piermartini, Roberta |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the factors of comparative advantage within global value chains relying on a framework where comparative advantage is measured through the interaction of country and industry characteristics. We find that good institutions give a comparative advantage in the later stages of the production process, whereas good transport infrastructure gives an advantage in the early stages of production. We explain these results with a simple theoretical framework that shows how predicted patterns of specializations depend on whether trade costs are additive or multiplicative. |
| Keywords: | global value chains,quality of transport infrastructure,quality of institutions,comparative advantage,upstreamness,production networks,trade costs |
| JEL: | F13 F14 L60 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201805&r=knm |
| By: | Gupta, Prachi (Asian Development Bank Institute); Helble, Matthias (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We study how manufacturing plants in India adjusted to trade liberalization during the period 1998–1999 to 2007–2008. We estimate how the labor share changed due to tariff reduction. Our results indicate that a decline in output tariffs led to an increase in the labor share of income. In contrast, a fall in input tariffs led to a decrease in the labor share. Controlling for factor intensity, we find that in technology-intensive and human capital resource-intensive sectors, both a decline in input and output tariff rates led to a decline in labor share. A fall in tariffs only led to an increase in labor share for labor-intensive and low-technology plants. Hence, India’s bias toward capital- and technology-intensive production explains the overall decline in labor share in the post reform period. Furthermore, the empirical results show that labor adjustment occurred more efficiently in Indian states with flexible labor laws. |
| Keywords: | trade reforms; labor share; India; manufacturing |
| JEL: | F13 F16 L60 |
| Date: | 2018–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0845&r=knm |
| By: | Jiti Gao; Namhyun Kim; Patrick W. Saart |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the important (but so far unrevealed) usefulness of the extended generalized partially linear single-index (EGPLSI) model introduced by Xia et al. (1999) in its ability to model a flexible shape-invariant specification is elaborated. More importantly, a control function approach is proposed to address the potential endogeneity problems in the EGPLSI model in order to enhance its applicability to empirical studies. In the process, it is shown that the attractive asymptotic features of the single-index type of a semiparametric model are still valid in our proposed estimation procedure given intrinsic generated covariates. Our newly developed method is then applied to address the endogeneity of expenditure in the semiparametric analysis of a system of empirical Engel curves by using the British data, highlights the convenient applicability of our proposed method. |
| Keywords: | Extended generalized partially linear single-index, control function approach, endogeneity, semiparametric regression models. |
| JEL: | C14 C18 C51 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2018-8&r=knm |
| By: | Meyer, Niclas; Horvat, Djerdj; Hitzler, Matthias; Doll, Claus |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses a range of business model innovations taking place out-side the rail transport sector with a direct impact on rail transport. The paper also discusses business model innovations that may have been developed elsewhere but could be transferred to the rail transport sector. The paper's main research question is whether business model innovations have the potential to strengthen the rail transport sector. While the focus is on how to increase the market share of rail transport in the modal split, it is not exclusively on business model innovations within the rail transport sector. It will also look at business model innovations outside the rail transport sector with the potential to increase the modal market share of rail transport. This paper is based on a survey of all business model innovations within the rail transport sector and relevant innovations outside the sector. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s082018&r=knm |
| By: | McGarry, Kathleen (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sun, Xiaoting (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The phenomenon of son preference in the People’s Republic of China and throughout much of Asia has been well documented. However, changing economic conditions, such as increases in educational attainment and employment opportunities for women and the rise in the prevalence of one-child families, have likely changed the incentives for parents to invest in daughters. We take advantage of data spanning three generations of Chinese families to examine the evolution of educational attainment for boys and girls and importantly the relative levels of schooling of each gender. We also use variation in the timing of compulsory schooling laws and the implementation of the one-child policy to assess the effect of these policy measures on the relative educational levels. We find a substantial narrowing of the gap between the schooling of boys and girls, so much so that girls now have more schooling on average than boys. In addition, public policy initiatives had a larger effect in rural than urban areas. |
| Keywords: | compulsory schooling; one-child policy; gender differences in education |
| JEL: | I20 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2018–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0834&r=knm |
| By: | Briana Chang; Harrison Hong |
| Abstract: | Measuring the value of labor-market hires for stock prices, be it underwriters when firms go public (IPOs) or chief executive officers (CEOs), is difficult due to selection. Opaque firms with higher costs of capital benefit more from prestigious underwriters, while productive firms benefit more from talented CEOs. Using assignment models, we show that the importance of talent (or agent heterogeneity) relative to selection (or firm heterogeneity) is measured by wage increases across agents of different compensation ranks divided by changes in output across their firms. The median of this ratio is 0.5% for underwriters and 2% for CEOs. |
| JEL: | G20 G24 G30 G34 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24672&r=knm |
| By: | Arulampalam. Wiji; Papini, Andrea |
| Abstract: | Analysis of the relationship between taxes and self-employment should account for the interplay between responses in self-employment and wage employment. To this end, we estimate a two-state multi-spell duration model which accounts for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a large longitudinal administrative dataset for Norway for 1993-2011. Our findings confirm theoretical predictions, and are robust to various changes to de nitions and sample selections. A policy experiment simulating a fl atter tax schedule in the year 2000, is found to encourage both entry into and exit from self-employment, with an increase of about 11.5 percent innet in flow into self-employment. |
| Keywords: | Tax progressivity ; Income tax ; Self-employment |
| JEL: | H24 H25 J24 C41 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1169&r=knm |
| By: | Luis Díez Catalán |
| Abstract: | Much research has documented a decline in the aggregate labor share in the United States and other countries. Yet, this is not a general phenomenon across industries. In fact, there has been a divergence between services and non-services industries in the United States since 1980. |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , Global Economy , USA , Europe |
| JEL: | E21 E24 E25 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1809&r=knm |
| By: | Rosengren, Eric S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the costs of high unemployment are disproportionately borne by those that can least afford them, and a variety of actions could be taken by policymakers to make periods of high unemployment less likely. |
| Keywords: | ethics and economics; monetary policy; inflation range; fiscal policy; state and local spending; countercyclical; policy tools; financial shock; economic recovery; bank regulatory policy |
| Date: | 2018–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbsp:133&r=knm |
| By: | Herz, Benedikt; van Rens, Thijs |
| Abstract: | We investigate unemployment due to mismatch in the United States over the past three and a half decades. We propose an accounting framework that allows us to estimate the contribution of each of the frictions that generated labor market mismatch. Barriers to job mobility account for the largest part of mismatch unemployment, with a smaller role for barriers to worker mobility. We find little contribution of wage-setting frictions to mismatch. |
| Keywords: | job mobility; mismatch; structural unemployment; worker mobility |
| JEL: | E24 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12972&r=knm |
| By: | Campbell, Iain |
| Abstract: | This report examines on-call and related forms of casual work in two selected industrialised societies: New Zealand and Australia. |
| Keywords: | flexible hours of work, labour flexibility, working conditions, Australia, New Zealand |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994986193402676&r=knm |
| By: | Biljana Indova; Branko Adjigogov |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ftm:policy:2018-02/13&r=knm |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Chris Rooney (University of Cape Town; Director and Professor) |
| Abstract: | The level of unemployment, poverty and inequality in South Africa is high in relation to the rest of the world. To overcome these three challenges, more and better jobs need to be created. A key source for these types of jobs can be found in the labour intensive manufacturing sector. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the performance of the South African manufacturing sector. We find that compared to other sectors of the economy, the manufacturing sector has performed poorly, both in terms of GDP growth and job creation. While all manufacturing sub-sectors showed GDP growth, that growth was marginal. Furthermore, although some manufacturing sub-sectors showed job growth, the rate of job losses in other manufacturing sub-sectors was far greater, resulting in overall job losses. We argue that the poor performance of the manufacturing sector can be attributed to increased competition from south-east Asia, and South Africa’s skills shortage. This research was commissioned by the Manufacturing, Engineering and Related Services SETA (merSETA). The authors wish to acknowledge merSETA’s contribution as funder, to the research and work herein. |
| Keywords: | Manufacturing, development, South Africa, jobs, skills shortage |
| JEL: | L60 N67 O1 O14 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:201702&r=knm |
| By: | Okay Gunes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This work will demonstrate how economic theory can be applied to big data analysis. To do this, I propose two layers of machine learning that use econometric models introduced into a recommender system. The reason for doing so is to challenge traditional recommendation approaches. These approaches are inherently biased due to the fact that they ignore the final preference order for each individual and under-specify the interaction between the socio-economic characteristics of the participants and the characteristics of the commodities in question. In this respect, our hedonic recommendation approach proposes to first correct the internal preferences with respect to the tastes of each individual under the characteristics of given products. In the second layer, the relative preferences across participants are predicted by socio-economic characteristics. The robustness of the model is tested with the MovieLens (100k data consists of 943 users over 1682 movies) run by GroupLens. Our methodology shows the importance and the necessity of correcting the data set by using economic theory. This methodology can be applied for all recommender systems using ratings based on consumer decisions. |
| Abstract: | Ce travail démontre comment la théorie économique peut être appliquée à l'analyse de Big Data. On propose deux couches d'apprentissage automatique qui utilisent des modèles économétriques introduits dans un système de recommandation. La raison de le faire est de remettre en question les approches de recommandation traditionnelles. Ces approches sont intrinsèquement biaisées en raison du fait qu'elles ignorent l'ordre de préférence final pour chaque individu et sous-spécifient l'interaction entre les caractéristiques socio-économiques des participants et les caractéristiques des produits en question. A cet égard, notre approche de recommandation hédonique propose de corriger d'abord les préférences internes par rapport aux go&ucric;ts de chaque individu en fonction des caractéristiques des produits donnés. Dans la deuxième couche, les préférences relatives entre les participants sont prédites par les caractéristiques socio-économiques. La robustesse du modèle est testée avec les MovieLens (100k données se composent de 943 utilisateurs sur 1682 films) gérés par GroupLens. Notre méthodologie montre l'importance et la nécessité de corriger l'ensemble de données en utilisant la théorie économique. Cette méthodologie peut être appliquée à tous les systèmes de recommandation qui utilisent des votes basées sur les décisions. |
| Keywords: | Big Data,Machine learning,Recommendation Engine,Econometrics,Données massives,Python,R,Apprentissage automatique,Système recommandation,Econométrie |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01673355&r=knm |
| By: | Goldschmidt, Tina; Rydgren, Jens |
| Abstract: | Populist radical right-wing parties across Europe garner support for welfare chauvinistic promises to limit government spending on immigrants and focus on natives' welfare instead. However, most research on the so-called immigration-welfare nexus does not study welfare chauvinism but instead focuses on generalized support for the welfare state. Using Swedish register-linked survey data from 2013, we study three hypothetical pathways into welfare chauvinism: via ethnic prejudice, operationalized as a desire for social distance; via the direct experience of immigrant unemployment and putative welfare receipt in the neighborhood context; and via immigrant competition at the workplace. Based on our sample of native-born Swedes, we find that both negative prejudice and the share of unemployed immigrants among the neighborhood population provide two distinct and independent routes into chauvinism, while workplace competition does not. |
| Keywords: | welfare chauvinism,government spending,immigration,integration,prejudice,Sweden |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmit:spvi2018102&r=knm |
| By: | Verónica Cañal-Fernández (Department of Economics Faculty of Economics and Business University of Oviedo); Julio Tascón Fernández (Department of Economics Faculty of Economics and Business University of Oviedo) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), exports and economic growth in Spain using annual time series data for the period 1970 to 2016. To examine these linkages the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long-run is applied. The error correction model (ECM) is used to examine the short-run dynamics and the vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality approach is used to investigate the direction of causality. The results confirm a long-run relationship among the examined variables. The Granger causality test indicates a strong unidirectional causality between FDI and exports with direction from FDI to exports. Besides, the results for the relationship between FDI and economic growth are interesting and indicate that there is no significant Granger causality from FDI to economic growth and vice-versa. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment; exports; imports; GDP; ARDL bounds; causality |
| JEL: | C22 E31 E50 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0128&r=knm |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a rough comparison of two mine plans for a hypothetical, pipe-shaped ore body. The geometry for the ore body is based on stylized example of an auriferous tourmaline breccia pipes associated with porphyry deposits, which can have great vertical extent and relatively small surficial expression. I suppose the pipe outcrops on a hillside and can be accessed from the base of the hill, allowing the miner to enter the pipe at the midpoint of the vertical extent. Accessing the pipe in the middle allows the miner to either go up or downwards and this paper explores one mining method for each case. I calculate basic statistics associated with each method and compare the two models for mining method. |
| Keywords: | Engineering Economics, Mining |
| JEL: | C00 G00 L72 |
| Date: | 2018–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87283&r=knm |
| By: | Patrick Chaumette (CDMO - Centre de droit maritime et océanique - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | The “blue growth” has many technological challenges as, for example, the exploitation of new energies at sea, deeper drilling and farther from the coast, ships increasingly impressive, computerized and automated. If there are opportunities, there are also new risks concerning safety and security and the protection of the marine environment. The maritime industry, ships, ports, platforms, is supposed to bring the minimum impact to the environment and also must be protected from malicious acts and violent attacks. The interventions of public and private actors are quite complementary. Can the High Reliability Organisations (HRO) concept be deployed in order to better understand the safety and security of ships, platforms and port facilities? |
| Abstract: | Des nouvelles énergies à exploiter en mer, des forages toujours plus loin des côtes et plus profonds, des navires de plus en plus imposants, informatisés et automatisés, sont autant de défis technologiques de la « croissance bleue ». S’il y a là des opportunités, ce sont aussi de nouveaux risques, concernant la sûreté et la sécurité, la protection de l’environnement marin. La filière maritime, navires, ports, plates-formes, doit avoir le minimum d’impact sur l’environnement, doit être protégée des actes malveillants et attaques violentes. Les interventions des acteurs publics et privés sont tout à fait complémentaires. Le concept d’Organisation à Haute Fiabilité (High Reliability Organisations - HRO) peut-il être déployé afi n de mieux appréhender la sécurité et la sûreté des navires, plates-formes et installations portuaires ? |
| Keywords: | blue growth,management,Economic challenge,new maritime risks,croissance bleue,nouveaux risques maritimes,Challenge économique |
| Date: | 2017–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01793050&r=knm |
| By: | La Cour, Lisbeth; McGaughey, Sara; Raimondos, Pascalis |
| Abstract: | When searching for productivity spillovers from foreign firms, a firm is typically classified as foreign using a low threshold of direct foreign ownership. Instead, we advocate an `ultimate owner' definition because (i) ultimate ownership includes indirect ownership links that are prevalent in our complex, interdependent world; and (ii) it confers control. Control brings greater willingness to transfer knowledge to foreign affiliates but, paradoxically, also greater potential for spillovers. Adopting this alternate definition of what is foreign turns out to be pivotal for identifying spillovers: while we find no horizontal productivity effects using the low threshold direct ownership definition, we find positive and significant effects under the ultimate-owner definition. Moreover, we find evidence that indirectly controlled foreign firms exert the most persistent horizontal spillovers to domestic firms. |
| Keywords: | control vs influence; direct vs. ultimate owner; Foreign direct investment; indirect ownership links; productivity spillovers |
| JEL: | F23 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12978&r=knm |
| By: | Takehito Masuda; Eungik Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper provides experimental evidence of the role of higher order risk attitudes—especially prudence—in prevention behavior. Prudence, under an expected utility framework, increases (decreases) self-protection effort compared to the risk neutral level when the risk of losing part of an income exists in a future (the same) period. Motivated by these predictions that give the exact test on prudence, an experiment was designed where subjects go through higher order risk attitude elicitation and make a self-protection decision. In contrast to expected utility theory, the observed efforts are less than the risk neutral level, regardless of the timing of loss. This violation of expected utility predictions could be explained by probability weighting. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1034&r=knm |
| By: | Muhammad, Tsani Abdulhakim; Chyntia, Indah Pratiwi |
| Abstract: | Abstract Zakat Mal or often referred to as zakat property is zakat owned by individuals with terms and conditions that have been set syarak. All the goods (malls) that grow and develop must be issued zakatnya to wander in the world of meterialis. The obligation of zakat is charged to the muzzaki belonging to the rich, well-off in fulfilling the necessities of life, and the charity is intended for the poor, the poor, the amil, the mu'allaaf, the free-willed servant, the debt-ridden person who is in sabilillah , and ibn Sabil. Each zakat maal issued there is a ratio and haulnya. Nisbah is the quantity level of wealth and haul is a certain time limit, for the property to be disposed of zakat. This writing aims to determine the effect of zakat mall for the economic welfare of the community within DKM Asy-Syuhada, after an interview with the zakat proctor chairman that zakat mall does not run with routine it is seen from the results of zakat mall paid last year in 2013 did not continue until this year . Zakat This treasure comes from the wealth derived from agricultural business which is classified as a relatively low income. Enterprises in this farm less profitable to be collected in economic wealth, because many are consumed by themselves. Or if traded or sold bring low income figures. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Economic, wealth, agriculture, low |
| JEL: | Z12 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87446&r=knm |
| By: | Diermeier, Matthias; Jung, Markos; Sagner, Pekka |
| Abstract: | Bis zur Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise haben sich die wirtschaftlichen Verhältnisse in den europäischen Regionen angenähert. Dieser Prozess ist in den vergangenen Jahren aufgrund von niedrigerem Wachstum in Osteuropa und von Stagnation in Südeuropa völlig zum Erliegen gekommen. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:302018&r=knm |
| By: | Korniluk, Dominik (Ministry of Finance, Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Dzięki modelowi optymalizacyjnemu polityki finansowej samorządów, zweryfikowane zostały hipotezy o wpływie wybranych czynników na optymalny poziom w relacji do dochodów bieżących: wydatków bieżących oraz inwestycyjnych. Potwierdzono hipotezę, że większa wartość infrastruktury powoduje zwiększenie wydatków bieżących samorządów. Pokazano także, iż wzrost: stopy deprecjacji infrastruktury, zadłużenia w relacji do dochodów bieżących i, w mniejszym stopniu, stopy współfinansowania inwestycji unijnych wpływa negatywnie na poziom wydatków bieżących w relacji do dochodów bieżących. Oddziaływanie stopy procentowej zaś okazało się być ujemne lub neutralne. Zwiększenie czynnika dyskontowego wywiera różny efekt na wydatki bieżące w zależności od okresu. Nieoczekiwany efekt zaobserwowano w odniesieniu do wskaźnika wydatków bieżących poniesionych przed rozpoczęciem modelowanego okresu. Wyższe przeszłe wydatki ograniczają przestrzeń na wydatki bieżące na początku badanego okresu, ale w kolejnym roku następuje efekt kompensacji, tj. uprzednie oszczędności umożliwiają większe wydatki w porównaniu ze scenariuszem bez oszczędności. Stwierdzono także, że dodatni wpływ na inwestycje zwykłe (tj. niewspółfinansowane ze środków unijnych) w relacji do dochodów bieżących ma wzrost stopy deprecjacji infrastruktury oraz czynnika dyskontowego. Potwierdzona została także hipoteza o ujemnym wpływie na inwestycje zwykłe w relacji do dochodów bieżących wzrostu: stopy procentowej, stopy zapadalności zadłużenia i wskaźnika infrastruktury. Pozytywnie zweryfikowano również hipotezę o ujemnym wpływie wzrostu limitu dochodów unijnych. W przypadku wskaźnika zadłużenia można także doszukać się efektu kompensacji - ujemny wpływ występuje tylko na początku okresu. Efekt ten występuje również w odniesieniu do wskaźnika inwestycji zwykłych w roli zmiennej objaśnianej i wskaźnika przeszłych wydatków bieżących jako zmiennej objaśniającej. Okazał się on nawet silniejszy niż w przypadku wydatków bieżących jako zmiennej objaśnianej. Optymalny poziom wydatków inwestycyjnych co do zasady maleje w czasie, co jest konsekwencją przyjętej funkcji użyteczności, która premiuje inwestycje poczynione we wcześniejszym okresie, gdyż poprawiona w ten sposób infrastruktura jest uwzględniana wielokrotnie w użyteczności. |
| Keywords: | polityka finansowa; samorządy; JST; optymalizacja |
| JEL: | C61 H72 H74 |
| Date: | 2018–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:mfplwp:0032&r=knm |
| By: | Zandile, Zezethu; Phiri, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Much emphasis has been placed on attracting FDI into Burkina Faso as a catalyst for improved economic growth within the economy. Against the lack of empirical evidence evaluating this claim, we use data collected from 1970 to 2017 to investigate the FDI-growth nexus for the country using the ARDL bounds cointegration analysis. Our empirical model is derived from endogenous growth theoretical framework in which FDI may have direct or spillover effects on economic growth via improved human capital development as well technological developments reflected in urbanization and improved export growth. Our findings fail to establish any direct or indirect effects of FDI on economic growth except for FDI’s positive interaction with export-oriented growth, albeit being constrained to the short-run. Therefore, in summing up our recommendations, political reforms and the building of stronger economic ties with the international community in order to raise investor confidence, which has been historically problematic, should be at the top of the agenda for policymakers in Burkina Faso. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment; economic growth; Burkina Faso; West Africa; ARDL cointegration. |
| JEL: | C13 C32 C51 F21 O40 |
| Date: | 2018–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87282&r=knm |
| By: | Subramanian, Krishnamurthy V. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We show theoretically and empirically that dismissal laws—laws that impose hurdles on firing of employees—spur innovation and thereby economic growth. Theoretically, dismissal laws make it costly for firms to arbitrarily discharge employees. This enables firms to commit to not punish short-run failures of employees. Because innovation is inherently risky and employment contracts are incomplete, dismissal laws enable such commitment. Specifically, absent such laws, firms cannot contractually commit so ex ante. The commitment provided by dismissal laws encourages employees to exert greater effort in risky, but path-breaking, projects thereby fostering firm-level innovation. We provide empirical evidence supporting this thesis using the discontinuity provided by the passage of the federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act. Using the fact that this Act only applied to firms with 100 or more employees, I undertake difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity tests to provide this evidence. Building on endogenous growth theory, which posits that economic growth stems from innovation, I also show that dismissal laws correlate positively with economic growth. However, other forms of labor laws correlate negatively with economic growth and swamp the positive effect of dismissal laws. |
| Keywords: | labor laws; R&D; technological change; law and finance; entrepreneurship; growth |
| JEL: | F30 G31 J08 J50 K31 |
| Date: | 2018–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0846&r=knm |
| By: | Marie Connolly (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Catherine Haeck (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the nonlinear impact of class size on student achievement by exploiting regulations that cap class size at 20 students per class in kindergarten. Using student-level information from a previously unexploited large-scale census survey of kindergarten students, this study provides clear evidence of the nonlinearity of class size effects on both cognitive and noncognitive measures. While the effects are largest on cognitive development, class size reductions also improve social competence and communication skills in small classes of fewer than 15 students. Above that threshold, the impacts of class size reduction are limited. We also find stronger effects for students in disadvantaged areas. These findings suggest that sizeable class size reductions targeted at disadvantaged areas would achieve better results than a marginal reduction across the board, and even that large reductions in a limited number of classes could be financed by marginal increases in the vast majority of schools not experiencing high poverty rates. |
| Keywords: | class size, cognitive development, noncognitive development, kindergarten, nonlinear effects |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J24 C31 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grc:wpaper:18-01&r=knm |
| By: | Roxane Bricet (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an experiment designed to measure the effect of information precision on ambiguity attitudes. The Ellsberg’s two-urns experiment is adapted so that the subjects are provided with sets of observations informing on the composition of the ambiguous urn. The central feature of the design consists in keeping the frequencies of observations constant across datasets, which allows to isolate the influence of information precision by varying the number of observations. The experimental results suggest that the availability of information does not eliminate Ellsberg-type preferences, since most subjects prefer the risky urn to the ambiguous urn to bet on both colors, but it does not translate into significantly different valuations for the risky and ambiguous prospects. Moreover, I do not find evidence that the increase in information precision is associated with higher valuation of the ambiguous prospect. |
| Keywords: | Preferences for information precision, Ambiguity, Ellsberg paradox, Certainty Equivalence, Preference Reversals, Experiment, Prince. |
| JEL: | C91 D81 D83 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2018-09&r=knm |
| By: | Aqil Alviana, Gunawan; Muhammad, Tsani Abdulhakim |
| Abstract: | Zakat is the third pillar of Islam, obliging every Muslim who is willing to expend his treasure in the effort to cleanse, purify, develop and help the mustahik to improve their lives. As the majority of Indonesian people work in the agricultural sector. With the characteristic features of an agriculture-based economy, the people of Indonesia are beginning to look at their economic growth. Distribution of zakat aims to make redistribution of income among the Islamic community, so there is no centralization of wealth on either side. Zakat is very influential on human economic behavior Zakat mal is the zakat imposed on property owned by individuals with the terms and conditions that have been determined. It is expected that the management of good zakat mall as well as proper distribution of targets can improve the economic welfare of Indonesian society. This writing aims to determine the role of zakat mal in the economy of Indonesian society. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: zakat, property, economy, base. |
| JEL: | Z1 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87396&r=knm |
| By: | Christel Dubrulle (IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - UR - Université de la Réunion); Nathalie Duran (IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - UR - Université de la Réunion); Cécile Maunier (IAE La Réunion - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - La Réunion - UR - Université de la Réunion) |
| Abstract: | Dubrulle : MCF en finance – Directrice Adjointe-IAE Réunion Christel.dubrulle@univ-reunion.fr Nathalie Duran : MCF en finance – Responsable pédagogique du Master CCA – IAE Réunion Nathalie.duran@univ-reunion.fr Cécile Maunier : MCF en marketing – RP Master MKT – IAE Réunion TROPHEE ENTREPRISE ET TERRITOIRE : IMMERSION DANS LE METIER DE L'AUDIT |
| Date: | 2017–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01655023&r=knm |
| By: | Md Mostafizur Rahman (Macquarie University, NSW); Mahmud Uz Zaman (Khulna University, Bangladesh); Ali Haider (Khulna University, Bangladesh) |
| Abstract: | Aligning with the broader discussion of migration, seasonal migration also resembled a multifold phenomenon ranging from reasons of temporal movement to settling down process at the place of destination. In this paper, seasonal migration was portrayed in between the ‘alarmists’ view and ‘skeptic’ view of migration, holding a new position called ‘opportunistic migration’ that seemed to offer benefits to the seasonal migrants characterizing by gaining social knowledge and earning money from the place of destination. The empirical data, face-to-face in-depth interviews, showed that both social and economic aspects of seasonal migration were dominated by the pull factors, and environmental aspects were linked with the push factors. This paper also highlighted that social network played an active role for seasonal migrants, in particular, the workers who seasonally migrated into the brickfields of southwest coastal Bangladesh. While migrating from the rural to the urban context, two-tier verbal agreements took place in between the brickfield owners with the contractors, and the contractors with the brickfield workers. Though those verbal agreements seemed to contain some extent of the failure of expectations by the above-mentioned actors related to seasonal migration, it also held optimism of development for every actor. Finally, this paper reused the term ‘collateral promise’ with a slighter social tone to understand the informal interactions among the employers, contractors, and the seasonal migrants. |
| Keywords: | Seasonal migration, social network, collateral promise, and qualitative method |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:ppaper:019&r=knm |
| By: | Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000–2016 by using a Panel-VAR model in the case of 8 Asian economies: Bangladesh, the People’s Republic of China, Indonesia, India, Japan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Our results confirm that energy price (oil price) has a significant impact on food prices. According to the results of impulse response functions, agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices. The findings from variance decomposition reveal that shares of oil prices in agricultural food price volatilities are the largest. In the second period 4.81%, and in the 20th period 62.49%, of food price variance is explained by oil price movements. We offer new policy insight. Since We also found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2% of the food price variance. However, by increasing the demand for biofuel, especially in advanced countries, there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security, especially in vulnerable economies. |
| Keywords: | oil price; food price; agricultural commodities prices; Panel-VAR model |
| JEL: | O13 Q11 Q18 Q41 |
| Date: | 2018–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0829&r=knm |
| By: | Eric J. Brunner (University of Connecticut); Joshua Hyman (University of Connecticut); Andrew Ju (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | School finance reforms caused some of the most dramatic increases in intergovernmental aid from states to local governments in U.S. history. We examine whether teacher unions affected the fraction of reform-induced state aid that passed through to local spending and the allocation of these funds. Districts with strong teacher unions increased spending nearly dollar-for-dollar with state aid, and spent the funds primarily on teacher compensation. Districts with weak unions used aid primarily for property tax relief, and spent remaining funds on hiring new teachers. The greater expenditure increases in strong union districts led to larger increases in student achievement. |
| Keywords: | School finance reform, teachers’ unions, intergovernmental grants |
| JEL: | H7 I2 J5 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2018-11&r=knm |
| By: | Gilles Le Garrec (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Vincent Touze (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | Le passage au prélèvement à la source de l'impôt sur le revenu prévu en France pour l'année 2019 introduit deux modifications fiscales. D'abord, puisque les impôts prélevés en 2018 le seront sur la base des revenus 2017 et ceux de l'année 2019 sur ceux de l'année 2019, les revenus 2018 ne seront pas fiscalisés, laissant ainsi place à une « année blanche ». Ensuite, les contribuables perdront l'avantage du paiement de l'impôt avec une année de décalage, caractérisant ainsi une hausse implicite d'impôt. Dans cet article, nous évaluons l'impact respectif de ces deux effets. Nous montrons que l'année blanche seule se traduit par une baisse annuelle des recettes fiscales proportionnelle à la différence entre le taux d'intérêt nominal et le taux de croissance des recettes fiscales. Ensuite, lorsqu'on tient compte de la hausse fiscale implicite, nous montrons comment l'Etat voit ses rentrées fiscales totales augmenter relativement au taux de croissance nominal de l'économie. Pour ce qui est des contribuables,nousmontronsquele prélèvementàla source aboutit à un impact inégalitaire, toujours en faveur des générations les plus âgées au détriment des nouveaux et potentiellement des futurs contribuables. |
| Keywords: | Withholding income tax; Public finance; Tax equity |
| JEL: | H24 H68 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5f6r8mtjsm80ras2hkv5b13987&r=knm |
| By: | Michael Peneder (WIFO); Nicole Schmidt (WIFO); Anna Strauss (WIFO); Stefan Weingärtner (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | Österreich bietet einen hohen Lebensstandard, der sowohl in überdurchschnittlichen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen und einer im internationalen Vergleich niedrigen Arbeitslosenquote als auch einem geringeren Anteil armutsgefährdeter Personen zum Ausdruck kommt. Der erreichte materielle Wohlstand beruht auf vergangenen Leistungen, stimmt aber auch für die nähere Zukunft optimistisch. Gleichzeitig bestehen hartnäckige Strukturdefizite in Bezug auf wichtige Bestimmungsfaktoren der langfristigen Entwicklung. Beispiele sind die als zu gering empfundene Leistungsfähigkeit des Bildungssystems, hohe Abgaben auf Arbeitseinkommen, als überbordend empfundene Regulierungen, ein geringer Anteil forschungsintensiver Produktionszweige oder die mangelnde Finanzierung von risikoreichen Projekten mit großem Wachstumspotential. |
| Date: | 2018–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2018:i:565&r=knm |
| By: | Dilger, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Die jüngste globale Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise sowie die Eurokrise werden kurz skizziert und analysiert. Wirtschaftswissenschaftler waren an diesen Krisen und ihrer Überwindung beteiligt. Ihr Anteil sollte jedoch nicht überschätzt werden. Mehr Forschung zu relevanten Problemen und eine bessere Vermittlung der Forschungsergebnisse wären wünschenswert, wozu jedoch die Anreizstrukturen in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften verbessert werden sollten. |
| JEL: | A11 B41 E42 G01 H12 I23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:42018&r=knm |
| By: | Ahrens, Volker |
| Abstract: | Eine Revolution, wie sie mit Industrie 4.0 in Zusammenhang gebracht wird, bedeutet die Ablösung von Bisherigem durch grundlegend Neues. Da die REFA-Methodenlehre bereits aus der ersten industriellen Revolution hervorgegangen und seit Jahrzehnten etabliert ist, gehört sie zum alten Inventar industrieller Produktion. Der vorliegende Beitrag befasst sich aus einer wissenschaftlichen Perspektive mit der Frage, ob und ggf. inwieweit die REFA-Methodik dadurch tatsächlich zur Disposition steht. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:nordwp:201801&r=knm |
| By: | Karol Gellert; Erik Schl\"ogl |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the construction of a particle filter, which incorporates elements inspired by genetic algorithms, in order to achieve accelerated adaptation of the estimated posterior distribution to changes in model parameters. Specifically, the filter is designed for the situation where the subsequent data in online sequential filtering does not match the model posterior filtered based on data up to a current point in time. The examples considered encompass parameter regime shifts and stochastic volatility. The filter adapts to regime shifts extremely rapidly and delivers a clear heuristic for distinguishing between regime shifts and stochastic volatility, even though the model dynamics assumed by the filter exhibit neither of those features. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.05387&r=knm |
| By: | Serge Francis Simen (ESP - UCAD - École Supérieure Polytechnique - Université Cheikh Anta DIOP de Dakar - UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop) |
| Abstract: | Cet article vise à comprendre et à décrire comment les dirigeants articulent tradition et modernité dans les TPE, en observant leurs pratiques de gestion des ressources humaines (GRH). Notre objectif est alors de montrer que certaines pratiques de GRH, plus particulièrement le recrutement, la rémunération, la formation, la communication, le leadership sont présentes dans les très petites entreprises sénégalaises. Cependant, elles se caractérisent par des spécificités découlant d'un environnement socio-culturel où l'anthropologie du lien social fait intervenir des « analyseurs-clés », tels que la parenté, la famille, l'ethnie, le village, la communauté. Nous utilisons l'ethnographie interprétative comme démarche d'investigation. Tout en nuançant le modèle arbitraire de Pichault et Nizet (2000), notre recherche permet de constater que les pratiques de GRH étudiées sont fortement ancrées dans un tissu social particulièrement « enchâssé dans l'économique ». Ainsi, les TPE étudiées s'enracinent dans les traditions pour fonder une « ethno-GRH » balbutiante et qui est encore à élaborer. |
| Date: | 2017–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01782042&r=knm |
| By: | Konstantin Buechel, Stephan Kyburz |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of railway access on regional development in 19th century Switzerland. The identification strategy in our analysis of geo-referenced railway network information, population growth rates, sectoral work shares and body height, relies on panel data techniques and an inconsequential units IV approach. Gaining railway access increased annual population growth by 0.4 percentage points compared to unconnected municipalities, mainly via the local migration balance. Railway improvements also promoted structural shifts from the primary to the secondary/tertiary sectors, and marginally accelerated body height growth. |
| Keywords: | Railway Access, Regional Development, Population Growth, Structural Change, Body Height, Switzerland |
| JEL: | I30 N33 N73 O18 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdv:wpaper:credresearchpaper12&r=knm |
| By: | Pişkin, Fatih |
| Abstract: | Sendikasyon kredilerinde uygulanan faiz oranı iki bölümden oluşmaktadır. Birinci bölüm, baz olarak alınan, Libor ya da Euribor gibi uluslararası kabul görmüş değişken bir faiz oranı iken, ikinci bölüm bu baz oranının üzerine eklenen ve uluslararası literatürde spread olarak adlandırılan sabit bir faiz oranıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren bankalar tarafından 2003-2012 yılları arasında alınmış olan sendikasyon kredilerinde, spreadin belirlenmesinde etkisi olan değişkenlerin neler olduğunun tespit edilmesidir. Spread üzerinde belirleyici olduğu düşünülen değişkenler beş ayrı grupta ele alınmıştır: küresel, makroekonomik, borçlu, sözleşme ve sendikasyon grubu değişkenleri. Elde edilen sonuçlar küresel finansal koşullardaki değişimlerin spreadi belirlemede etkili olduğunu; çoğunlukla yabancı bankalardan oluşan borç verenlerin, sendikasyon kredilerinin Türk bankacılık sektörü ve Türkiye’nin yurtdışı borçlanması içerisindeki payının oldukça sınırlı olmasına rağmen, fiyatlamada makroekonomik koşulları da dikkate aldıklarını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, borçluya ait özelliklerin de spread üzerinde etkili olduğu, kredi özelindeki sözleşme koşullarının ve sendikasyon grubunun yapısına dair değişkenlerin ise belirleyici olmadıkları sonucuna varılmıştır. |
| Keywords: | spread, sendikasyon kredileri, kredi fiyatlaması, bankalar |
| JEL: | F34 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2016–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87476&r=knm |
| By: | Lindner, Peter; Loeffler, Axel; Segalla, Esther; Valitova, Guzel; Vogel, Ursula |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the international transmission of monetary policies of major advanced economies (US, UK, euro area) through banks in Austria and Germany. In particular, we compare the role of banks' funding structure, broken down by country of origin as well as by currency denomination, in the international transmission of monetary policy changes to bank lending. We find weak evidence for inward spillovers. The more a bank is funded in US dollars, the more its domestic real sector lending is affected by monetary policy changes in the US. This effect is more pronounced in Germany than in Austria. We do not find evidence for outward spillovers of euro area monetary policy through a bank funding channel. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy spillover,global banks,bank funding channel |
| JEL: | E52 F33 G21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:132018&r=knm |
| By: | Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Shaban, Mohamed (Asian Development Bank Institute); Song, Quanyun (Asian Development Bank Institute); Wu, Yu (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We utilize an e-commerce development indicator in tandem with big data to measure the variations of e-commerce development across counties in the People’s Republic of China and assess its impact on entrepreneurship in both rural and urban areas. We find that households living in counties with higher levels of e-commerce development are more likely to run their own businesses. Further study indicates that e-commerce development not only significantly increases the entry of new startups but also decreases the exit of incumbent businesses. We also find that e-commerce development induces sectoral change of household entrepreneurship. It promotes entrepreneurship in the manufacturing and wholesale sectors, but reduces the entrepreneurship in the retail, hotel, and catering sectors. We also show that e-commerce prosperity fuels entrepreneurship by alleviating the financial constraints and moderates the reliance of household entrepreneurship on social networks. |
| Keywords: | e-commerce development; big data; entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2018–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0827&r=knm |
| By: | Mario Cunha (Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto and Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais); Christian Richter (Faculty of Management Technology, German University in Cairo) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we model the impact of climate dynamics on wine production temporal cycles for the period 1933 to 2013 in the Douro wine region. We identify the cyclical properties of wine production and which cycles are de-termined by spring temperature and soil water levels during summer. We find that the in-season spring temperature as well as the temperatures of two and three years ago explain about 65% of the variability of wine pro-duction. When the soil water level in summer is incorporated, the R2 in-creases to 83% minimizing the Akaike criterion. The effects of soil water in wine production are depending on the timing. The in-season effect of an increase in soil water is negative, whilst soil water from two and three years ago have a positive effect on wine production. There is a stable but non- constant link between production and the spring temperature. The temper-ature is responsible for two long-medium cycles of 5.8 year and 4.2 years as well as a short one of 2.4 years that began since the 80s. The soil water level can explain 60% of the 7 years cycles of wine production as well as a short one of 2.3 years cycle which has been happening since the 90s. We also identify a shift of the relative importance away from temperature to soil water. Despite using a new an extended dataset, our results largely confirm the results of the impact of climate on the wine production in Douro region in our previous research. Modelling the impact of climate on the wine production can be an important instrument contributing for mitigation strategies facing the projected climate conditions in order to remain com-petitive in the market. |
| Keywords: | climate variability, wine production, time-varying spectra, Kalman filter, Douro region |
| JEL: | Q15 Q16 Q25 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:guc:wpaper:47&r=knm |
| By: | Núñez Reyes, Georgina; De Furquim, Júlia |
| Abstract: | En este documento se analizan distintas formas de concentración de los mercados de la Argentina, el Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú, y su relación con el proceso de patentes de empresas. Se identifican elementos para el análisis de la figura de poder de mercado de empresas tecnológicas y no tecnológicas en sectores de la economía y los grados de concentración por sector económico, a partir de datos financieros de las empresas. |
| Keywords: | INTERNET, ECONOMIA BASADA EN EL CONOCIMIENTO, MERCADOS, COMPETENCIA, CONCENTRACION ECONOMICA, FUSIONES Y ADQUISICIONES DE LA EMPRESA, ESTUDIOS DE CASOS, INTERNET, KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY, MARKETS, COMPETITION, ECONOMIC CONCENTRATION, MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS, CASE STUDIES |
| Date: | 2018–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:43631&r=knm |
| By: | Scholz, Robert; Vitols, Sigurt |
| Abstract: | Der Mitbestimmungsindex (MB-ix) misst die institutionelle Verankerung der Mitbestimmung auf einer Skala von 0 bis 100. Im Zehnjahresverlauf wird deutlich, dass die Verankerung der Mitbestimmung stabil ist, gerade auch während der Finanzkrise. Die Aufsichtsräte als Gremien verkleinern sich zwar etwas und werden auf Arbeitnehmerseite teilweise internationaler besetzt, die Verteilung nach der Art der Mandate und die Besetzung der Stellvertreter ändern sich allerdings kaum. Gleichzeitig zeigt der MB-ix eine große Varianz in der institutionellen Verankerung der Mitbestimmung in den einzelnen Unternehmen, aber auch nach Branchen und Unternehmenstypen. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsmbr:43&r=knm |
| By: | Antonis Papapantoleon; Dylan Possamai; Alexandros Saplaouras |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we obtain stability results for martingale representations in a very general framework. More specifically, we consider a sequence of martingales each adapted to its own filtration, and a sequence of random variables measurable with respect to those filtrations. We assume that the terminal values of the martingales and the associated filtrations converge in the extended sense, and that the limiting martingale is quasi--left--continuous and admits the predictable representation property. Then, we prove that each component in the martingale representation of the sequence converges to the corresponding component of the martingale representation of the limiting random variable relative to the limiting filtration, under the Skorokhod topology. This extends in several directions earlier contributions in the literature, and has applications to stability results for backward SDEs with jumps and to discretisation schemes for stochastic systems. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01172&r=knm |
| By: | - |
| Keywords: | COOPERACION REGIONAL, RECURSOS NATURALES, DESARROLLO DE LOS RECURSOS NATURALES, DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, PROYECTOS DE DESARROLLO, EVALUACION DE PROYECTOS, REGIONAL COOPERATION, NATURAL RESOURCES, NATURAL RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, PROJECT EVALUATION |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col093:43652&r=knm |
| By: | Chowdhury, Mohammad Tarequl Hasan; Rahman, Muhammad Habibur; Ulubasoglu, Mehmet Ali |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the ways in which terrain ruggedness affects sectoral diversification. A cross-country analysis using data from 142 countries over the period 1970‒2007 documents an inverted U-shaped link between terrain ruggedness and sectoral diversification, which mainly works through the extensive margin of diversification. A within-country analysis based on United States (US) state-level data over the period 1997‒2011 confirms this non-monotonic relationship. The within-country analysis further reveals that an important mechanism through which terrain ruggedness affects sectoral diversification is the spatial concentration of economic activity, as measured by the concentration of satellite-based night lights. |
| Keywords: | sectoral diversification, spatial concentration, extensive margin, intensive margin, terrain ruggedness. |
| JEL: | O11 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87245&r=knm |
| By: | Gürtzgen, Nicole; Nolte, André; Pohlan, Laura; van den Berg, Gerard J. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies effects of the introduction of a new digital mass medium on reemployment of unemployed job seekers. We combine data on high-speed (broadband) internet availability at the local level with individual register data on the unemployed in Germany. We address endogeneity by exploiting technological peculiarities in the network that affected the roll-out of high-speed internet. The results show that high-speed internet improves reemployment rates after the first months of the unemployment spell. This is confirmed by complementary analysis with individual survey data suggesting that online job search leads to additional formal job interviews after a few months in unemployment. |
| Keywords: | unemployment,online job search,information frictions,matching technology,search channels |
| JEL: | J64 K42 H40 L96 C26 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:18030&r=knm |
| By: | Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke |
| Abstract: | Preliminary version of a paper prepared for IMF-BNM-IMFER Conference on Globalization in the Aftermath of the Crisis and the IMF Economic Review. The research on which this paper is based was in part funded by the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546. The paper draws on many collaborations, and I am extremely grateful to my co-authors: Miguel Almunia, Agustin Bénétrix, Roberto Bonfatti, Alan de Bromhead, Barry Eichengreen, Alan Fernihough, Ronald Findlay, William Hynes, David Jacks, Markus Lampe, Gisela Rua, and Jeffrey Williamson. The usual disclaimer applies. |
| Date: | 2017–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_159&r=knm |
| By: | Isabelle Hirtzlin (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Activity-based tariff for hospitals were first implemented in the US and extended to Europe in the 1990s. By paying a flat rate tariff by stay it promotes a reduction of its medium length. Therefore it should have theoretically increased the proportion of day surgery in hospitals. However, a tariff deduction was initially made for day surgery. This have contributed to the delay in the implementation of day surgery activities in several countries, including France and the UK. In the early 2000s, in order to promote day surgery which is reputed to cost less, the regulation bodies of both countries adopted a same tariff principle for day surgery and full hospitalisation, for a given list of surgical procedures. The UK went further in 2010 with the introduction of a best practice tariff. It opened the possibility to pay more for day surgery than for full hospitalisation. These measures try to conciliate allocative efficiency for the health care system and productive efficiency of hospitals. Nevertheless, nowadays, neither of the two countries could be sure that this policy will contribute to reduce the global budget allocated to surgery and satisfy the national budget constraints. |
| Abstract: | La tarification à l’activité pour les établissements de santé a d'abord été mise en œuvre aux États-Unis, puis étendue à l'Europe dans les années 1990. En payant un tarif forfaitaire par séjour, elle favorise une réduction de sa durée moyenne. Cela devait donc théoriquement conduire à augmenter la proportion de chirurgie ambulatoire dans les établissements de santé. Toutefois, une décote tarifaire a longtemps été pratiquée pour les séjours de chirurgie ambulatoire. Cela a contribué au retard dans la mise en œuvre de cette activité dans plusieurs pays, dont la France et le Royaume-Uni. Au début des années 2000, afin de promouvoir la chirurgie d'un jour, réputée moins coûteuse que l’hospitalisation complète, les régulateurs des deux pays ont adopté un tarif identique pour la chirurgie de jour et l’hospitalisation complète, pour une liste limitée de procédures chirurgicales. Le Royaume-Uni est allé plus loin en 2010 avec l'introduction d'un tarif à la meilleure pratique. Ce principe a ouvert la possibilité d’un paiement plus important pour la chirurgie ambulatoire que pour l'hospitalisation complète. Ces mesures tentent de concilier efficacité allocative pour le système de soins de santé et l'efficacité productive des hôpitaux. Néanmoins, de nos jours, aucun des deux pays ne peut être certain que cette politique contribuera à réduire le budget global alloué à la chirurgie et à satisfaire les contraintes budgétaires nationales. |
| Keywords: | Best pratice tariff,Activity based tariff,Day surgery,austerity,France,United Kiingdom,Tarification à la meilleure pratique,Tarification à l'activité,chirurgie ambulatoire,austérité,Royaume uni |
| Date: | 2016–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01473408&r=knm |
| By: | Eugen Dimant (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a novel experimental design to study the contagion of pro- and antisocial behavior and the role of social proximity among peers. Across systematic variations thereof, we find that anti-social behavior is generally more contagious than pro-social behavior. Surprisingly, we also find that social proximity amplifies the contagion of anti-social behavior more strongly than the contagion of pro-social behavior, and that anti-social individuals are most susceptible to behavioral contagion of other anti-social peers. These findings paired with the methodological contribution are informative for the design of effective norm-based policy interventions directed at facilitating (reducing) pro- (anti-)social behavior in social and economic environments. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral Contagion, Peer Effects, Anti-Social & Pro-Social Behavior |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2018-04&r=knm |
| By: | Santiago Acerenza; Néstor Gandelman |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes household spending in education using microdata from income and expenditure surveys for 12 Latin American and Caribbean countries and the United States. Bahamas, Chile and Mexico have the highest household spending in education while Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay have the lowest. Tertiary education is the most important form of spending, and most educational spending is performed for individuals 18-23 years old. More educated and richer household heads spend more in the education of household members. Households with both parents present and those with a female main income provider spend more than their counterparts. Urban households also spend more than rural households. On average, education in Latin America and the Caribbean is a luxury good, while it may be a necessity in the United States. No gender bias is found in primary education, but households invest more in females of secondary age and up than same-age males. |
| Keywords: | Household Expenditure, Household Income, Education Expenditure, Primary & Secondary Education, Children, School Attendance, gender bias, Educational Level, Household Education Spending, Household Income, Household Expenditure |
| JEL: | D12 I2 E21 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:8212&r=knm |
| By: | Micha³ Majsterek (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | The paper describes relationships between stocks and flows in the context of cointegration analysis. Long-run and medium-term equilibrium relationships between stocks and flows are considered where stocks are described as cumulative flows. Polynomial cointegration is described as a tool for the analysis of equilibrium relationships and adjustment mechanisms for stocks and flows. |
| Keywords: | stocks, flows, equilibrium, cointegration |
| JEL: | C10 C32 |
| Date: | 2018–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:3/2018&r=knm |
| By: | Yves Crozet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | INTRODUCTION : La bataille ferroviaire engagée par le Premier ministre est-elle la «mère de toutes les batailles», le moment critique où est mise en jeu la capacité réformatrice de la majorité présidentielle ? Indubitablement la réponse est oui. Parmi toutes les pistes ouvertes par le rapport Spinetta, le gouvernement a choisi la plus à même de créer l'affrontement avec les syndicats. Comme on n'ose pas imaginer qu'il s'agit d'amateurisme, cela révèle une volonté de gagner une bataille symbolique. Même en supposant une victoire du gouvernement, «aux points» plutôt que par KO, quel seront les résultats de ce choix ? … |
| Keywords: | Pacte ferroviaire,SNCF,rapport Spinetta,France |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01795410&r=knm |
| By: | Allan Wright; Kari Grenade; Ankie Scott-Joseph |
| Abstract: | This study contends that Caribbean countries cannot adequately surmount their fiscal and debt challenges in the absence of binding rules that are geared toward entrenching fiscal discipline, curbing fiscal procyclicality, and improving budget transparency and credibility. Distilling global lessons and taking due cognizance of Caribbean countries' idiosyncrasies, the paper explores key technical, operational and institutional issues in the design, implementation, and monitoring of fiscal rules that might be relevant for Caribbean countries that currently do not have legislated rules. Results from simulations carried out to determine welfare effects and the extent of volatility of key macroeconomic variables under various fiscal rules scenarios suggest that of the different types of simulated fiscal rules, expenditure rules perform best in terms of reducing macroeconomic volatility, and in that regard, appear to be the most welfare-enhancing. This is believed to be the first study to carry out such a simulation exercise for Caribbean countries. The findings of the study evince useful insights for policymakers on how to improve the design and conduct of fiscal policy for better fiscal and, by extension, development outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal rules, Public debt, Public Financial Management, Fiscal deficit, fiscal deficit, public debt, fiscal sustainability, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | H60 E62 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:8208&r=knm |
| By: | Klein, Paul-Olivier; Weill, Laurent |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of bank profitability on economic growth. While policymakers have shown major concerns for low levels of bank profitability, there are no empirical studies on the growth effects of bank profitability. To fill this gap, we investigate the impact of bank profitability on economic growth using a sample of 133 countries during the period 1999–2013 with several empirical approaches. Our first major conclusion is that a high current level of bank profitability contributes positively to economic growth. Our second conclusion is that the past level of bank profitability exerts a negative influence on economic growth leading to the absence of significance for the overall bank profitability. Hence, the positive impact of bank profitability on economic growth is short-lived. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks, including those using alternative measures for profitability and growth. |
| JEL: | G21 O16 O40 |
| Date: | 2018–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2018_015&r=knm |
| By: | Yves-Laurent Kom Samo; Dieter Hendricks |
| Abstract: | Given a new candidate asset represented as a time series of returns, how should a quantitative investment manager be thinking about assessing its usefulness? This is a key qualitative question inherent to the investment process which we aim to make precise. We argue that the usefulness of an asset can only be determined relative to a reference universe of assets and/or benchmarks the investment manager already has access to or would like to diversify away from, for instance, standard risk factors, common trading styles and other assets. We identify four features that the time series of returns of an asset should exhibit for the asset to be useful to an investment manager, two primary and two secondary. As primary criteria, we propose that the new asset should provide sufficient incremental diversification to the reference universe of assets/benchmarks, and its returns time series should be sufficiently predictable. As secondary criteria, we propose that the new asset should mitigate tail risk, and the new asset should be suitable for passive investment (e.g. buy-and-hold or short-and-hold). We discuss how to quantify incremental diversification, returns predictability, impact on tail risk, and suitability for passive investment, and for each criterion, we provide a scalable algorithmic test of usefulness. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.08444&r=knm |
| By: | BALLIAUW, Matteo; VERLINDEN, Thomas; DE CROOCQ, Lisa; FOBE, Aline; VAN DEN SPIEGEL, Tomas |
| Abstract: | Corporate Sports Hospitality (CSH) is a relationship marketing tool whereby customers and other stakeholders are invited by a company buying CSH from a club to attend a sports game. The CSH product involves premium seating and optional services such as catering. Little academic research about the CSH industry has been performed in the past. Moreover, this industry has been perceived to be in decline, especially in times of economic downturn when companies need to justify every cost expenditure. This paper quantifies the added value of CSH. A case study from the highest division in Belgian football (soccer) shows that, although the market is smaller than in the American major sports leagues, CSH returns account for an important share of club revenues. Through Porter’s Five Forces framework, we show that a club experiences the strongest competitive impact from substitutes and other clubs in the league. Since CSH is often managed on an ad-hoc base and the literature offers no formal CSH management process for companies and clubs, information is gathered to build such an effective process. It allows both clubs as well as CSH buying companies to define their objectives and measure their performance in a quantitative way through Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Not only return on investment, but also return on other objectives matters. We moreover argue that measuring the output through these KPIs and improving the process according to feedback loops are crucial for successful CSH. To improve CSH attractiveness, sufficient attention should be given to technological and managerial innovations. |
| Keywords: | Luxury seating, Venue revenues, Management process, Sports marketing |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ant:wpaper:2018008&r=knm |
| By: | Christian Alcocer;Thomas D. Jeitschko; Robert Shupp; Thomas D. Jeitschko; Robert Shupp |
| Abstract: | We identify a behavioral bias in games with completely mixed equilibria. Following Alcocer and Jeitschko (2014) we characterize players who, when indifferent between several optimal choices, assign an equal probability to playing any one of them, rather than following the mixing of the Nash Equilibirum. We design an experiment to test for the presence of such ‘na ??ve’ players. In a first session, we sort subjects into na ??ve players and their sophisticated counterparts, according to their tendency to skew towards uniform mixing rather than Nash equilibrium mixing. Two weeks later, each group played against varying proportions of automated players (bots) that follow varying off-equilibrium mixed strategies. Subjects categorized as na ??ve continue to tend towards uniform mixing and also are less apt to account for distortions due to off-equilibrium bots. In contrast, sophisticated players do compensate for the distortions in the game, although this compensation is not large enough to restore equilibria, implying there are predictable methods to attain above-equilibrium payoffs. We also isolate altruistic components of players’ strategies: behavior gets closer to Nash equilibria by adding transparent bots that do not directly incentivize any change in behavior but decrease the benefits of surplus maximizing behavior. Lastly, we show that the probability of being categorized as na ??ve is correlated with the performance on a quantitative test. |
| Keywords: | Experimental, Behavioral, Bounded Rationality, Compensated Equilib-rium, Computer Bots, Mixed Equilibria, Cognitive Heterogeneity, Na ??ve and Sophisti-cated Players |
| JEL: | C72 C91 D03 D83 |
| Date: | 2018–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000416:016345&r=knm |
| By: | Yuecai Han; Qingshuo Song; Gu Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates sufficient conditions for a Feynman-Kac functional up to an exit time to be the generalized viscosity solution of a Dirichlet problem. The key ingredient is to find out the continuity of exit operator under Skorokhod topology, which reveals the intrinsic connection of overfitting Dirichlet boundary with fine topology. As an application, we establish the sub and supersolutions for a class of non-stationary HJB (Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman) equations with fractional Laplacian operator via Feynman-Kac functionals associated to $\alpha$-stable processes, which enables us to verify its solvability together with comparison principle and Perron's method. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.09302&r=knm |
| By: | J. Isaac Miller (Department of Economics, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri, USA) |
| Abstract: | Time series that are observed neither regularly nor contemporaneously pose problems for most multivariate analyses. Common and intuitive solutions to these problems include linear and step interpolation or other types of imputation to a higher, regular frequency. However, interpolation is known to cause serious problems with the size and power of statistical tests. Due to the difficulty in measuring stochastically varying paleoclimate phenomena such as CO2 concentrations and surface temperatures, time series of such measurements are observed neither regularly nor contemporaneously. This paper presents large- and small-sample analyses of the size and power of cointegration tests of time series with these features and confirms the robustness of cointegration of these two series found in the extant literature. Step interpolation is preferred over linear interpolation. |
| Keywords: | cointegration, irregularly time series, non-contemporaneous time series, misaligned time series, paleoclimate data |
| JEL: | C12 C22 C32 Q54 |
| Date: | 2018–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:1809&r=knm |
| By: | Alexander Kriwoluzky; Christian Bayer; Chi Hyun Kim |
| Abstract: | Mit der schwierigen Regierungsbildung in Italien und dem auf Steuersenkungen ausgerichteten und europaskeptischen Programm der italienischen Koalition droht die schon überwunden geglaubte Krise im Euroraum wieder aufzulodern. Dies führt zu Risikoaufschlägen für italienische Staatsanleihen, die AnlegerInnen nicht nur für direkte Zahlungsausfälle, sondern auch für das Risiko, in einer anderen Währung als Euro ausgezahlt zu werden, verlangen. In der Krise 2010 bis 2014 konnte die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) das Fortbestehen des Euroraums glaubhaft machen, damit die Risikoaufschläge deutlich verringern und so letztlich die Zinssätze angleichen. Die erneut aufkommenden Austrittserwartungen machen deutlich, in welch schwierigem wirtschaftspolitischem Umfeld sich die EZB noch immer bewegt, und zeigen den Reformbedarf im Euroraum. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwakt:13de&r=knm |
| By: | Hesse, Henning |
| Abstract: | Departing from the principle of absolute priority, CoCo bonds are particularly exposed to bank losses despite not having ownership rights. This paper shows the link between adverse CoCo design and their yields, confirming the existence of market monitoring in designated bail-in debt. Specifically, focusing on the write-down feature as loss absorption mechanism in CoCo debt, I do find a yield premium on this feature relative to equity-conversion CoCo bonds as predicted by theoretical models. Moreover, and consistent with theories on moral hazard, I find this premium to be largest when existing incentives for opportunistic behavior are largest, while this premium is non-existent if moral hazard is perceived to be small. The findings show that write-down CoCo bonds introduce a moral hazard problem in the banks. At the same time, they support the idea of CoCo investors acting as monitors, which is a prerequisite for a meaningful role of CoCo debt in banks' regulatory capital mix. |
| Keywords: | CoCo bonds,contingent capital,endogenous risk,capital structure,incentives,monitoring |
| JEL: | G18 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:212&r=knm |
| By: | Christoph Breunig; Enno Mammen; Anna Simoni |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with inference about low-dimensional components of a high-dimensional parameter vector beta_0 which is identified through in- strumental variables. We allow for eigenvalues of the expected outer product of included and excluded covariates, denoted by M, to shrink to zero as the sample size increases. We propose a novel estimator based on desparsi- fication of an instrumental variable Lasso estimator, which is a regularized version of 2SLS with an additional correction term. This estimator converges to beta_0 at a rate depending on the mapping properties of M captured by a sparse link condition. Linear combinations of our estimator of beta_0 are shown to be asymptotically normally distributed. Based on consistent covariance estimation, our method allows for constructing confidence intervals and sta- tistical tests for single or low-dimensional components of beta_0. In Monte-Carlo simulations we analyze the finite sample behavior of our estimator. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.00666&r=knm |
| By: | Toussaert, Séverine |
| Abstract: | Unlike present‐biased individuals, agents who suffer self‐control costs as in Gul and Pesendorfer, 2001 may choose to restrict their choice set even when they expect to resist temptation. To identify these self‐control types, I design an experiment in which the temptation was to read a story during a tedious task. The identification strategy relies on a two‐step procedure. First, I measure commitment demand by eliciting subjects' preferences over menus that did or did not allow access to the story. I then implement preferences using a random mechanism, allowing to observe subjects who faced the choice yet preferred commitment. A quarter to a third of subjects can be classified as self‐control types according to their menu preferences. When confronted with the choice, virtually all of them behaved as they anticipated and resisted temptation. These findings suggest that policies restricting the availability of tempting options could have larger welfare benefits than predicted by standard models of present bias. |
| Keywords: | temptation; self-control; menu choice; curiosity; experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D83 D99 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:88107&r=knm |
| By: | Poole, Jennifer (Asian Development Bank Institute); Santos-Paulino, Amelia (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sokolova, Maria (Asian Development Bank Institute); DiCaprio, Alisa (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Market-oriented reforms, such as liberalizing trade and encouraging foreign direct investment, can generate large efficiency gains for a country. However, there is also concern that lower-skilled workers are increasingly being replaced by technology and that more globalized markets are harming employment opportunities. We investigate these issues by exploring household surveys from Viet Nam, combined with information on the task content of occupations, industrial exposure to international trade, and access to technology across the country. We assess the extent to which exposure to foreign markets and access to digital technologies affect the demand for different types of skills, by exploiting the fact that provinces vary in the degree of access to digital technologies and industries vary in the degree of exposure to foreign markets. We also extend much of the literature to consider the interplay between trade and technology on labor demand. On its own, technological change does not appear to be a main driver of the demand for skill in Viet Nam. Increased trade, rather, does expand employment opportunities across both skilled and unskilled workers. Consistent with classic trade theory, the increase is stronger for manual and routine tasks, shifting the composition of the labor force toward lower-skilled workers. However, the increase in manual and routine employment opportunities in response to the trade shock is smaller in areas of the country with access to digital technologies, providing suggestive evidence of the routine-biased nature of technology. From a policy standpoint, our work contributes to an understanding of job requirements and job security in an increasingly technology-driven and integrated world economy. Our research also offers insights for other lesser developing countries that face similar challenges. |
| Keywords: | Viet Nam; trade; information technology; skills |
| JEL: | F16 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0770&r=knm |
| By: | Eric Heyer (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | En mai, l’inflation en zone euro s’est rapprochée de l’objectif de la BCE. En passant d’un rythme annuel de 1,2% à 1,9% en l’espace d’1 mois, cette nette hausse de l’inflation n’a pourtant suscité aucun émoi, la nature principale de celle-ci étant commune à tous les pays et parfaitement identifiée : la flambée des cours du pétrole. Après avoir dégringolé jusqu’à 30 dollars le baril en début d’année 2016, celui-ci s’établit aujourd’hui autour de 77 dollars, niveau jamais atteint depuis 2014. Même corrigé du taux de change – l’euro s’est apprécié par rapport au dollar – le prix du baril a augmenté de près de 40 % (soit 18 euros) au cours des 12 derniers mois engendrant mécaniquement une accélération des prix dans les pays importateurs nets de pétrole. A cet effet commun vient se greffer pour la France l’incidence de la hausse de la fiscalité indirecte sur le tabac et les carburants entrée en vigueur en début d’année qui, selon nos évaluations, augmenterait de 0,4 point l’indice des prix. [Premier paragraphe] |
| Keywords: | Chômage ; Croissance; Inflation |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/517iace8k29r4b30mge28t1nsu&r=knm |
| By: | Chris Kirrane |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the opportunities and also the difficulties of EMU with regard to international monetary cooperation. Even though the institutional and intellectual assistance to the coordination of monetary policy in the EU will probably be strengthened with the EMU, among the shortcomings of the Maastricht Treaty concerns the relationship between the founder members and those countries who wish to remain outside monetary union. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1807.00419&r=knm |
| By: | Anne Muxel (Centre de recherches politiques de Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Cet article présente un certain nombre de résultats issus de travaux menés sur la transmission des attitudes et des comportements politiques au sein de la famille, entre parents et enfants. Il fournit une grille de lecture des mécanismes de l'héritage intergénérationnel et présente un cadre d'interprétation des phénomènes de « politisation intime », dans le cadre de la sphère privée, participant à la construction des identités politiques. Il montre les transactions qui opèrent entre le système des normes et le système des affects des individus. Si le pluralisme et le respect de la différence sont acceptés, le désir d'homogamie et de ressemblance s'impose aussi comme une nouvelle norme affective. |
| Keywords: | socialisation politique; politisation intime; famille; transmission intergénérationnelle |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6chptacpp39s2avhaa9atiqjph&r=knm |
| By: | Johannes Buckenmaier (Department of Economics, University of Zurich); Eugen Dimant (University of Pennsylvania and Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics (CeDEx), University of Nottingham); Luigi Mittone (Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, University of Trento, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of an institutional mechanism that incentivizes taxpayers to blow the whistle on collusive corruption and tax compliance. We explore this through a formal leniency program. In our experiment, we nest collusive corruption within a tax evasion framework. We not only study the effect of the presence of such a mechanism on behavior, but also the dynamic effect caused by the introduction and the removal of leniency. We find that in the presence of a leniency mechanism, subjects collude and accept bribes less often while paying more taxes, but there is no increase in bribe offers. Our results show that the introduction of the opportunity to blow the whistle decreases the collusion and bribe acceptance rate, and increases the collected tax yield. It also does not encourage bribe offers. In contrast, the removal of the institutional mechanism does not induce negative effects, suggesting a positive spillover effect of leniency that persists even after the mechanism has been removed. |
| Keywords: | Collusive bribery, Institutions, Tax compliance, Leniency, Spillover |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2018-05&r=knm |
| By: | Cáceres, Rodrigo; Katz, Jorge; Dini, Marco |
| Abstract: | Esta investigación explora los procesos de construcción de capacidades, aprendizaje y especialización de agencias públicas que regulan sectores intensivos en recursos naturales. Particularmente, se estudian los casos de dos agencias regulatorias chilenas en los sectores de acuicultura y minería, el Servicio Nacional de Pesca y Acuicultura, y el Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, respectivamente. A través de una reconstrucción histórica de ambas instituciones, se identifican procesos de sofisticación tecnológica y desarrollo del capital humano, rutinas de fiscalización de mayor complejidad técnica, además de evidenciar la relevancia de los episodios de crisis ocurridos en los sectores que regulan, los cuales indujeron aumentos significativos de presupuesto fiscal, cambios legislativos y nuevas atribuciones en estas agencias, a fin de fortalecer sus capacidades para regular y/o proveer bienes públicos. Más recientemente, se observa el inicio de una tendencia hacia formas de intervención asociadas a la “gestión del riesgo” relacionadas con la vigilancia activa y provisión de bienes públicos asociados al monitoreo y prevención ex ante de riesgos, ya sean biológico-sanitarios en el caso de acuicultura; o de contaminación minera y el ‘spin-off’ del manejo de peligros geológicos en el caso del Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería. Finalmente, la creciente especialización de estas agencias del Estado en ciencias biológicas y geociencias las conduce gradualmente hacia modelos de gestión basados en ciencia y tecnología como base de su actividad regulatoria. Su futuro en este sentido debe recibir atención prioritaria por parte del Estado. |
| Keywords: | ADMINISTRACION PUBLICA, ORGANISMOS REGULATORIOS, INNOVACIONES TECNOLOGICAS, DESARROLLO DE CAPACIDAD, CAMBIO ORGANIZACIONAL, COMPETITIVIDAD, ESTUDIOS DE CASOS, PESCA, ACUICULTURA, MINERIA, GEOLOGIA, PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, REGULATORY AGENCIES, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS, CAPACITY BUILDING, ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE, COMPETITIVENESS, CASE STUDIES, FISHING, AQUACULTURE, MINING, GEOLOGY |
| Date: | 2018–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col026:43643&r=knm |
| By: | Demary, Markus; Diermeier, Matthias; Hüther, Michael; Jung, Markos; Matthes, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Die EU-Kommission hat verschiedene Vorschläge für Reformen der Wirtschaft- und Währungsunion vorgelegt. Während manche Ideen mehr politisch motiviert zu sein scheinen oder anreizspezifische Probleme mit sich bringen, gibt es durchaus Reformvorschläge, die sich ökonomisch begründen lassen und zur gesamteuropäischen Risikominderung beitragen können. Eine Mittelaufstockung für technische Hilfen zur Umsetzung von Strukturreformen ist grundsätzlich zu begrüßen. Eine reine Subventionierung solcher Reformen - nach dem Prinzip "Geld gegen Reformen" - droht hingegen starke Mitnahmeeffekte zu erzeugen und das Subsidiaritätsprinzip zu missachten. Dass mit der Schaffung einer neuen Konvergenzfazilität bei der Förderung von Strukturreformen ein besonderer Fokus auf Nicht-Eurostaaten gelegt werden sollte, ist nicht zu rechtfertigen. Die geplante makroökonomische Stabilisierungsfunktion zur Abmilderung der Wirkung asymmetrischer Schocks entbehrt auf europäischer Ebene einer zwingenden ökonomischen Notwendigkeit. Zwar erscheint der Ansatz grundsätzlich nachvollziehbar, dass ein möglicher Fonds nur Kredite vergeben, bei staatlichen Investitionen ansetzen und im EU-Haushalt eng gedeckelt bleiben würde. Doch besteht die Gefahr, dass die Mittelbereitstellung letztlich politischem Druck folgt und die avisierte Ex-ante-Konditionalität aufgeweicht wird. Daher ist dieser Vorschlag abzulehnen. Eine strategische Koordinationsfunktion könnte die EU bei der Organisation der Finanzierung von grenzüberschreitenden Investitionsprojekten einnehmen. Unterfinanzierte Infrastruktur in Grenzgebieten stellt noch immer ein wesentliches Hemmnis für die europaweite Verflechtung von Wertschöpfungsketten dar. Über Projektbonds könnte die Europäische Entwicklungsbank hier einen wichtigen Beitrag zur realen Konvergenz in Europa leisten. |
| JEL: | H61 O52 H54 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:202018&r=knm |
| By: | Wolf, Robin Paul |
| Abstract: | Im Jahr 2013 wurden die internationalen Rechnungslegungsstandards zur Abbildung von Gemeinschaftsunternehmen unter der Grundannahme angepasst, dass "[...] a change in financial reporting requirements might affect the cost of capital for individual entities by changing the [...] level of information asymmetry [...]" (IASB (2011), S. 3). Während IAS 31 ein Wahlrecht zwischen Quotenkonsolidierung oder at-Equity Bilanzierung eröffnete, vereinheitlicht IFRS 11 die Berichterstattung zur at-Equity Bilanzierung, begleitet durch Anhangangaben nach IFRS 12. Die Untersuchung von Unternehmen des deutschen Prime Standards zeigt, dass unter IAS 31 quotal konsolidierende Unternehmen vor Einführung der Änderungen nicht von niedrigeren Eigenkapitalkosten profitierten. Ihre Eigenkapitalkosten haben sich mit Einführung von IFRS 11 und 12 gegenüber durchweg at-Equity bilanzierenden Unternehmen zudem weiter erhöht, auch wenn die Eigenkapitalkosten letzterer Unternehmen ebenfalls gestiegen sind. Bezogen auf das Untersuchungsobjekt fällt die Bilanz der Einführung von IFRS 11 und 12 für die Finanzberichterstattung der Kooperationspartner somit insgesamt negativ aus. |
| Keywords: | Gemeinschaftsunternehmen,joint venture,IAS 31,IFRS 11,IFRS 12,at-equity Bilanzierung,Quotenkonsolidierung,Eigenkapitalkosten,equity method,proportionate consolidation,cost of equity capital |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wwuifg:179&r=knm |
| By: | Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School); Dixon, Huw David (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper systematically integrates microdata and macrodata analysis of price rigidity in mon-etary economics. We explore the mechanism of price-setting using survival based approaches in order to see what factors drive the observed price rigidity. We find significant effects of macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output, which should be purged off before cal-ibrating any macroeconomic models. The microdata findings are then used to estimate and simulate a heterogeneous price-setting model with a generalised Calvo goods sector and a gen-eralised Taylor service sector, which improves the performance in matching macrodata persistence. |
| Keywords: | Price Rigidity, Price Setting Behaviour, Microdata, Survival Analysis, Heterogeneous Agent Model, Persistence Puzzle |
| JEL: | C41 D21 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2018/18&r=knm |
| By: | Kunze, Frederik; Basse, Tobias; Wegener, Christoph; Spiwoks, Markus |
| Abstract: | We investigate RMB pricing differentials for onshore and offshore trading. Testing for long memory, we find strong persistence in the pricing differential. Hence, the Chinese FX market in its bipolar structure still lacks basic conditions for perfectly integrated markets. |
| Keywords: | CNY,CNH,RMB internationalization,Market integration,Emerging markets |
| JEL: | F31 F33 G18 C58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:348&r=knm |
| By: | Emanuele Crosato; Ramil Nigmatullin; Mikhail Prokopenko |
| Abstract: | Urban transformations within large and growing metropolitan areas often generate critical dynamics affecting social interactions, transport connectivity and income flow distribution. We develop a statistical-mechanical model of urban transformations, exemplified for Greater Sydney, and derive a thermodynamic description highlighting critical regimes. We consider urban dynamics at two time scales: fast dynamics for the distribution of population and income, modelled via the maximum entropy principle, and slower dynamics evolving the urban structure under spatially distributed competition. We identify phase transitions between dispersed and polycentric phases, induced by varying the social disposition---a factor balancing the suburbs' attractiveness---in contrast with the travel impedance. Using the Fisher information we identify critical thresholds and quantify the thermodynamic cost of urban transformation, as the minimal work required to vary the underlying parameter. Finally, we introduce the notion of thermodynamic efficiency of urban transformation, as the ratio of the order gained during a change to the amount of required work, showing that this measure is maximised at criticality. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.03758&r=knm |
| By: | Huang, Darien; Schlag, Christian; Shaliastovich, Ivan; Thimme, Julian |
| Abstract: | We show that time-varying volatility of volatility is a significant risk factor which affects the cross-section and the time-series of index and VIX option returns, beyond volatility risk itself. Volatility and volatility-of-volatility measures, identified modelfree from the option price data as the VIX and VVIX indices, respectively, are only weakly related to each other. Delta-hedged index and VIX option returns are negative on average, and are more negative for strategies which are more exposed to volatility and volatility-of-volatility risks. Volatility and volatility of volatility significantly and negatively predict future delta-hedged option payoffs. The evidence is consistent with a no-arbitrage model featuring time-varying market volatility and volatility-of-volatility factors, both of which have negative market price of risk. |
| Keywords: | volatility of volatility,hedging errors,risk premiums |
| JEL: | G12 G13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:210&r=knm |
| By: | Eric D. , Ramstetter |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) played in Vietnamese firm exports during 2010-2013. Consistent with patterns observed in commodity export data, MNEs are found to account for the majority of firm exports during this period. Wholly-foreign MNEs (WFs), which accounted for the vast majority of MNE production in Vietnam, accounted for most MNE exports. Both WFs and MNE joint ventures (JV) made larger direct contributions to exports than to production or employment, as observed in other Asian developing economies. There was a strong tendency for WFs to have the highest export propensities (export-turnover ratios) followed by JVs. Manufacturing firms exported over four-fifths of the total in most years. Tobit estimates that controlled for the effects of firm size, capital intensity, liquidity, location, and industry affiliation for manufacturers indicate WFs also had the highest conditional export propensities, followed by JVs, private firms, while export propensities tended to be similar in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private firms in most industries. Because Vietnam imposes few ownership restrictions on MNEs, these results imply that MNEs generally prefer to export from WFs rather than JVs, and are consistent with previous results for Thailand and Indonesia, for example. |
| Keywords: | Multinational enterprises, state-owned enterprises, ownership, exports, F14, F23, L33, L60, L81, O53 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000143&r=knm |
| By: | Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke; Alan de Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe |
| Abstract: | Abstract A recent literature explores the nature and causes of the collapse in international trade during 2008 and 2009. The decline was particularly great for automobiles and industrial supplies; it occurred largely along the intensive margin; quantities fell by more than prices; and prices fell less for differentiated products. Do these stylised facts apply to trade collapses more generally? This paper uses detailed, commodity specific information on UK imports between 1929 and 1933, to see to what extent the trade collapses of the Great Depression and Great Recession resembled each other. It also compares the free trading trade collapse of 1929-31 with the protectionist collapse of 1931-3, to see to what extent protection, and gradual recovery from the Great Depression, mattered for UK trade patterns. |
| Keywords: | Great Depression; Great Recession; trade; protectionism |
| JEL: | F14 N74 |
| Date: | 2018–01–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_160&r=knm |
| By: | Emilio Calvo (Universidad de Valencia. ERI-CES); Esther Gutiérrez-López (Departamento de Economía Aplicada IV. Universidad del País Vasco U.P.V./E.H.U.) |
| Abstract: | We consider the family of discounted solidarity values Sl^{α}, where α∈[0,1]. We offer strategic support for this family by means of a noncooperative bargaining game. We show that the risk of a breakdown in negotiations and the time discount factor simultaneously determine the value of α. We supplement the analysis with an axiomatic characterization. |
| Keywords: | n-person bargaining; transferable utility games; Solidarity value. |
| JEL: | C71 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbe:wpaper:0418&r=knm |
| By: | Núñez Reyes, Georgina; De Furquim, Júlia |
| Abstract: | En este documento se define el marco de un ecosistema de competencia que, además del ámbito regulatorioinstitucional, incluye el desarrollo tecnológico y la innovación. Se analizan las plataformas tecnológicas y su papel como nuevos modelos de negocio, la protección de datos y los efectos de red. El análisis evidencia un proceso de convergencia entre sectores que también impacta en la política de competencia, y destaca dos sectores producto del proceso de convergencia: las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC) y las tecnologías financieras (fintech), ambos caracterizados por altas concentraciones que afectan la libre competencia. |
| Date: | 2018–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:43632&r=knm |
| By: | Stephan Klasen; Marc Fleurbaey |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the conceptual and empirical issues involved in the overarching goal of “leaving no one behind” (LNOB). After reviewing some existing documents on the topic, it proposes ways to operationalize LNOB, discusses whether to take a country-focused or person-focused approach, examines various (multidimensional) ways to measure those who are left behind, argues for grounding LNOB on intrinsic and instrumental reasons, suggests ways to identify those at risk of being left behind, and discusses difficult trade-offs with other SDGs for an agenda focused on LNOB. |
| Keywords: | leave no one behind, inequality, poverty, Agenda 2030 |
| JEL: | D63 I38 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:cpaper:044&r=knm |
| By: | Christophe Labreuche (Thales Research & Technology - Palaiseau); Michel Grabisch (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In many Multi-Criteria Decision problems, one can construct with the decision maker several reference levels on the attributes such that some decision strategies are conditional on the comparison with these reference levels. The classical models (such as the Choquet integral) cannot represent these preferences. We are then interested in two models. The first one is the Choquet with respect to a p-ary capacity combined with utility functions, where the p-ary capacity is obtained from the reference levels. The second one is a specialization of the Generalized-Additive Independence (GAI) model, which is discretized to fit with the presence of reference levels. These two models share common properties (monotonicity, continuity, properly weighted, …), but differ on the interpolation means (Lovász extension for the Choquet integral, and multi-linear extension for the GAI model). A drawback of the use of the Choquet integral with respect to a p-ary capacity is that it cannot satisfy decision strategies in each domain bounded by two successive reference levels that are completely independent of one another. We show that this is not the case with the GAI model |
| Keywords: | Multiple criteria analysis; Generalized Additive Independence; Choquet integral; reference levels; interpolation |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:18009&r=knm |
| By: | Giovanni Compiani (niversity of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business); Philip A. Haile (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Marcelo Sant'Anna (FGV EPGE) |
| Abstract: | An oil lease auction is the classic example motivating a common values model. However, formal testing for common values has been hindered by unobserved auction-level heterogeneity, which is likely to affect both participation in an auction and bidders' willingness to pay. We develop and apply an empirical approach for first-price sealed bid auctions with affiliated values, unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous bidder entry. The approach also accommodates spatial dependence and sample selection. Following Haile, Hong and Shum (2003), we specify a reduced form for bidder entry outcomes and rely on an instrument for entry. However, we relax their control function requirements and demonstrate that our specification is generated by a fully specified game motivated by our application. We show that important features of the model are nonparametrically identified and propose a semiparametric estimation approach designed to scale well to the moderate sample sizes typically encountered in practice. Our empirical results show that common values, affiliated private information, and unobserved heterogeneity - three distinct phenomena with different implications for policy and empirical work - are all present and important in U.S. offshore oil and gas lease auctions. We find that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity in the empirical model obscures the presence of common values. We also examine the interaction between affiliation, the winner's curse, and the number of bidders in determining the aggressiveness of bidding and seller revenue. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2137&r=knm |
| By: | Alexander A. J. Wulfers |
| Abstract: | Abstract The Age of Mass Migration came to an end in the interwar period with new American immigration restrictions, but did this end affect some potential migrants more than others? I use previously unanalysed data from passenger lists of ships leaving Bremen, one of the major European ports of emigration, between 1920 and 1933, to identify occupations and skill levels of individual migrants. The main focus of the paper is on the role that policy played in influencing the selection of migrants. I study the American quota laws of 1921, 1924, and 1929, and find that increasingly strict quotas led to an increase in the skill level of migrants as well as a shift from agricultural to manufacturing workers first, and from manufacturing to professional workers later. |
| Keywords: | immigration policy, skill selection, quotas, United States, Bremen, interwar period |
| JEL: | J15 N32 N34 |
| Date: | 2018–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_161&r=knm |
| By: | Austan Goolsbee |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the role of policy in an AI-intensive economy (interpreting AI broadly). It emphasizes the speed of adoption of the technology for the impact on the job market and the implications for inequality across people and across places. It also discusses the challenges of enacting a Universal Basic Income as a response to widespread AI adoption, discuss pricing, privacy and competition policy the question of whether AI could improve policy making itself. |
| JEL: | H0 L16 O3 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24653&r=knm |
| By: | Maurice Bernadet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Yves Crozet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Le décret 2017-639 et son arrêté d’application, datés du 26 et publiés le 28 avril 2017 au Journal officiel modifient sur trois points la réglementation en vigueur pour l’information sur les émissions de CO2 des services de transport. La première modification est logique. Pour se rapprocher de la norme européenne, seront évalués non seulement le CO2, mais aussi d’autres gaz à effet de serre comme le méthane, et à terme les fuites de liquide frigorigène. Second changement, l’obligation d’information ne concerne que les services ayant leur origine et leur destination en France. Dans cet article, nous nous penchons sur la troisième composante du décret, celle qui repousse à 2019 (au lieu du 1er juillet 2016!) l’obligation pour les entreprises de 50 salariés ou plus d’abandonner la méthode dite de «niveau 1 ». Nous pensons que c’est regrettable. En voici l’explication. On notera que .dans cet article les arguments utilisés et les raisonnements développés se réfèrent aux seuls transports routiers de marchandises. Toutefois, il est clair que certains des arguments présentés ont une portée plus générale et pourraient justifier que ses conclusions soient étendues, moyennant éventuellement des adaptations, à d’autres modes. |
| Keywords: | émissions de dioxyde de carbone (CO2),obligation d’information,décret 2017-639,valeurs de niveau 1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01792634&r=knm |
| By: | Jon X. Eguia; Francesco Giovannoni |
| Abstract: | We provide an instrumental theory of extreme campaign platforms. By adopting an extreme platform, a previously mainstream party with a relatively small probability of winning further reduces its chances. On the other hand, the party builds credibility as the one most capable of delivering an alternative to mainstream policies. The party gambles that if down the road voters become dissatisfied with the status quo and seek something different, the party will be there ready with a credible alternative. In essence, the party sacrifices the most immediate election to invest in greater future success. We call this phenomenon tactical extremism. We show under which conditions we expect tactical extremism to arise and we discuss its welfare implications. |
| Date: | 2018–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:18/701&r=knm |
| By: | Lance A. Fisher (Macquarie University); Hyeon-seung Huh (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a method for combining sign and parametric restrictions in SVARs by means of Givens matrices. The Givens matrix is used to rotate an initial set of orthogonal shocks in the SVAR. Parametric restrictions are imposed on the Givens matrix in a manner which utilises its properties. This gives rise to a system of equations which can be solved recursively for the ¡®angles¡¯ in the constituent Givens matrices to enforce the parametric restrictions. The method is applied to several identifications which involve a combination of sign restrictions, and long-run and/or contemporaneous restrictions in Peersman¡¯s (2005) SVAR for the US economy. The method is compared to the recently developed method of Aries, Rubio-Ramirez and Waggoner (2018) which combines zero and sign restrictions. |
| Keywords: | structural vector autoregressions, sign and parametric restrictions, Givens rotations, QR decomposition |
| JEL: | C32 C51 E32 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2018rwp-122&r=knm |
| By: | Fuster, Andreas (Swiss National Bank); Vickery, James (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Bank capital requirements are based on a mix of market values and book values. We investigate the effects of a policy change that ties regulatory capital to the market value of the “available-for-sale" investment securities portfolio for some banking organizations. Our analysis is based on security-level data on individual bank portfolios matched to bond characteristics. We find little clear evidence that banks respond by reducing the riskiness of their securities portfolios, although there is some evidence of a greater use of derivatives to hedge securities exposures. Instead, banks respond by reclassifying securities to mitigate the effects of the policy change. This shift is most pronounced for securities with high levels of interest rate risk. |
| Keywords: | bank; securities; available-for-sale; capital regulation; fair value accounting |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:851&r=knm |
| By: | Sekanina, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Seit der Finanzkrise hat sich die Investorenlandschaft deutsche Unternehmen deutlich verändert. Passive US-Vermögensverwalter haben ebenso an Bedeutung gewonnen wie aktivistische Investoren verstärkt börsennotierte Unternehmen attackieren. Im Mittelstand hat dagegen das Anlagemodell "Private Equity" neuen Auftrieb erhalten. Aus Sicht der Mitbestimmung lassen diese Entwicklungen eine Reihe neuer Herausforderungen erkennen, die Beschäftigtenvertreter mit großer Aufmerksamkeit verfolgen sollten. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsmbr:42&r=knm |
| By: | Adena, Maja; Alizade, Jeyhun; Bohner, Frauke; Harke, Julian; Mesters, Fabio |
| Abstract: | In an experiment, we test the impact of quality certificates on donations to a charity. Compared to the control group, participants presented with a quality certificate chose higher donations by around 10% and reported higher trust towards the same charity. The choice of donation values over time shows strong persistence such that the difference between the two groups remained even after all participants were informed about the certificate. Since the initially uninformed donors did not adjust their donations sufficiently upwards, we conclude that quality certification is less likely to affect giving of existing donors. Finally, we find no significant effect of information about certificate fees. |
| Keywords: | non-profit certification,charitable giving,experiment,trust |
| JEL: | D64 C99 D81 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbeoc:spii2017302r&r=knm |
| By: | Takaaki Hoda (Graduate School of Business Administrations, Kobe University); Yuichiro Kubo (Graduate School of Business Administration, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to reveal the current state of intra-regional lending by financial institutions prompted by Hometown Tax Donation, and to explore the ensuing prospects for intra-regional collaboration among businesses, governmental organizations and financial institutions. To achieve this end, we surveyed regional financial institutions across Japan, and found that although a significant number of financial institutions expect Hometown Tax Donation to promote industry-government-banking collaboration, few have actually extended loans, while many are taking a wait-and-see stance. The survey also revealed that while regional financial institutions recognize that Hometown Tax Donation can contribute to local businesses and economies, for example, through raising local businesses’ incentives for new product development and enhancing their designing capabilities, or through “city marketing,†they do not foresee a rise in migration/resettlement or lending. Meanwhile, it was revealed that most regional financial institutions that extended new or additional loans to gift providers?local businesses providing gifts in return for Hometown Tax Donations?had comprehensive partnerships with municipalities. Thus, for Hometown Tax Donation to contribute to regional development, collaboration between municipalities and financial institutions is essential, and the scheme itself should be enhanced so that it would gain the confidence of regional financial institutions. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kbb:dpaper:2018-07&r=knm |
| By: | Kati Suominen |
| Abstract: | The Internet roared to the scene in Latin America and it is transforming the way Latin Americans interact, shop, bank, and spend their time. The Internet is changing regional consumption patterns, the landscape of regional companies, and the region's economic prospects. Disruptive digital technologies riding on the web -cloud-based services, e-commerce, 3D printing, Internet of Things, and so on- are empowering LAC companies of all sizes to dramatically cut costs, improve customer service, and create brand new products and services. The region is also home to innovative digital companies run by intrepid entrepreneurs, some of whom have accessed significant investments from Silicon Valley and grown into some of the leading digital companies. The Internet, in short, has opened tremendous new opportunities for LAC economies to become more productive, expand opportunities for entrepreneurship, and drive inclusive economic growth. |
| Keywords: | E-Commerce, Export Diversification, Exports of Service, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, Startups, Integration & Trade, E-Commerce, Electronic Commerce |
| JEL: | O39 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:8166&r=knm |
| By: | Yves Crozet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | INTRODUCTION : Le monde des transports retient son souffle. Les élus locaux sont inquiets, les entreprises de travaux publics s'interrogent. La logique de la décision publique dans le domaine des infrastructures de transport est en pleine mutation. L'année 2018 est à peine entamée que le gouvernement enterre le projet d'aéroport de Notre-Dame-des-Landes (NDDL) et abandonne l'organisation de l'exposition universelle à Paris. Dans la foulée, le Conseil d'orientation des investissements (COI) propose une révolution conceptuelle rendant obsolètes certains grands projets très coûteux. Saura-t-on en tirer les conséquences, en pratiquant «le point mort», par exemple? Le débat est lancé. |
| Keywords: | Conseil d’orientation des investissements (COI),grands projets,infrastructures de transport,décision publique,dépense publique |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01795727&r=knm |
| By: | Fornaro, Paolo |
| Abstract: | In this note, I study the Finnish regional dispersion of economic indicators such as the GDP per capita, labour productivity, the employment rate and the compensation of employees. Moreover, I examine the regional-level correlation between these variables. The results are then compared with what has been found for the German and Italian economies. Finnish regional economies display substantial variation, but their GDP per capita, productivity and employment rate have converged. However, the compensation of employees has diverged. Compared to Germany and Italy, the Finnish economy has a lower regional dispersion, with a similar convergence process as in Germany. The correlation between regional productivity and the employment rate is lower than what is found in Italy and Germany, and the same holds for productivity and wages. The picture gathered from this analysis is mixed. Convergence of economic conditions is certainly positive, but the divergence of the compensation of employees can be problematic for the long-term sustainability of the Finnish regional markets. If well-paid jobs concentrate in richer regions, there will be higher incentives for young and well-educated workers to move away from peripheral (in economic terms) areas, which would be at risk of stagnation. |
| Keywords: | Convergence, regional inequalities, productivity, wages |
| JEL: | O47 R11 R23 |
| Date: | 2018–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:68&r=knm |
| By: | Hovik Tumasyan |
| Abstract: | The widely accepted view on derivatives pricing post-crisis states that - the price of a fully collateralized derivative transaction is obtained by discounting all associated cash flows with the cost of the collateral, while for a non-collateralized derivative transaction the discounting rate should be the cost of unsecured funding of the "issuing" counterparty. The paper examines origins of this view by following three papers, that have received wide acceptance from practitioners as providing the theoretical foundations for it - [Piterbarg 2010], [Burgard and Kjaer 2010] and [Burgard and Kjaer 2013]. The paper reveals several conceptual and technical inconsistencies with the approaches taken in these articles, and in general concludes that none of the statements above either follows from or is required by the no-arbitrage pricing theory, but can amount to arbitrage due to the luck of a market that would clear at XVA-embedded prices. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.09198&r=knm |
| By: | Pimpin, L; Retat, L; Fecht, D; De Preux Gallone, LB; Sassi, F; Gulliver, J; Belloni, A; Ferguson, B; Corbould, E; Jaccard, A; Webber, L |
| Date: | 2018–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imp:wpaper:60180&r=knm |
| By: | Lergetporer, Philipp (University of Munich); Werner, Katharina (University of Munich); Woessmann, Ludger (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | The gap in university enrollment by parental education is large and persistent in many countries. In our representative survey, 74 percent of German university graduates, but only 36 percent of those without a university degree favor a university education for their children. The latter are more likely to underestimate returns and overestimate costs of university. Experimental provision of return and cost information significantly increases educational aspirations. However, it does not close the aspiration gap as university graduates respond even more strongly to the information treatment. Persistent effects in a follow-up survey indicate that participants indeed process and remember the information. Differences in economic preference parameters also cannot account for the educational aspiration gap. Our results cast doubt that ignorance of economic returns and costs explains educational inequality in Germany. |
| Keywords: | inequality, higher education, university, aspiration, information, returns to education, survey experiment JEL Classification: D83, I24, J24, H75 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:371&r=knm |
| By: | Hamed Ghiaie (Département d'économique, Université de Cergy-Pontoise); Jean-François Rouillard (Département d'économique, Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | Through the lens of a multi-agent dynamic general equilibrium model, we examine the effects of four permanent changes in housing taxes and deductions on macroeconomic aggregates and welfare. Our main result is that the presence of borrowing-constrained bankers dampen the negative consequences of housing taxation on output. The long-run tax multipliers found range from -1.02 to -0.6. The reduction in the deduction of mortgage interest payments delivers the lowest multiplier. We also implement revenue-neutral tax reforms and find that the repeal of mortgage deductibility is the only policy that generates gains in output. |
| Keywords: | Housing taxation, banking, dynamic general equilibrium. |
| JEL: | E62 G28 H24 R38 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:18-01&r=knm |
| By: | Robert Kaestner; Kevin Callison |
| Abstract: | In this article we develop a model of the demand for cigarettes that incorporates forward-looking behavior related to the adverse health consequences of smoking and the addictive nature of cigarettes. The model results in several testable hypotheses that we use to examine the extent to which smokers exhibit forward-looking behavior. Results of our study are generally supportive of the notion that smokers behave in a forward-looking manner. |
| JEL: | D12 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24620&r=knm |
| By: | Sébastien Villemot (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Bruno Ducoudre (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Xavier Timbeau (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | À partir d’une modélisation des taux de change réel d’équilibre, nous cherchons à quantifier les ajustements à effectuer – aussi bien à l’intérieur de la zone euro que vis-à-vis du reste du monde – pour parvenir à résorber les déséquilibres de balance courante tout en stabilisant les positions extérieures nettes des pays de la zone euro. Nos estimations indiquent que des désajustements substantiels subsistent, le désajustement moyen (en valeur absolue) par rapport au niveau de l’euro s’élevant à 11 % en 2016. Le différentiel nominal relatif entre l’Allemagne et la France s’élèverait à 25 %. La prise en compte des incertitudes sur la valeur des élasticités-prix des exportations et des importations ne remet pas en cause notre diagnostic, mais une incertitude forte subsiste sur la quantification des désajustements, un désajustement de près de 35 % de l’Allemagne par rapport à la moyenne de ses partenaires ne pouvant être écarté dans le pire des scénarios. Enfin, nous estimons la cible de long terme de la parité euro/dollar à 1,35 dollar pour un euro. |
| Keywords: | taux de change d’équilibre; balance commerciale; compétitivité-prix |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4c32uj6f5n9readqv2lt05mao1&r=knm |
| By: | Geir H. M. Bjertnæs (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | The marginal cost of public funds (MCF) is substantial in generous welfare state countries according to Kleven and Kreiner (2006). Their main estimate for the Danish economy exceeds 2 mainly because taxation distorts labor force participation. Adjustments in social transfers which alleviate such extensive margin distortions are however not considered. This study shows that MCF within a similar welfare state country, Norway, should be in the interval 1.06 - 1.16 when social transfers alleviate such distortions. |
| Keywords: | Marginal cost of public funds; Optimal income taxation; Social security transfers; tagging |
| JEL: | H21 H23 H41 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:879&r=knm |
| By: | Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke; Alan de Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe |
| Abstract: | Abstract International trade became much less multilateral during the 1930s. Previous studies, looking at aggregate trade flows, have argued that discriminatory trade policies had comparatively little to do with this. Using highly disaggregated information on the UK’s imports and trade policies, we find that policy can explain the majority of Britain’s shift towards Imperial imports in the 1930s. Trade policy mattered, a lot. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, interwar period |
| JEL: | F13 F14 N74 |
| Date: | 2017–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_152&r=knm |
| By: | Matteo Brachetta; Claudia Ceci |
| Abstract: | In this work we investigate the optimal proportional reinsurance-investment strategy of an insurance company which wishes to maximize the expected exponential utility of its terminal wealth in a finite time horizon. Our goal is to extend the classical Cramer-Lundberg model introducing a stochastic factor which affects the intensity of the claims arrival process, described by a Cox process, as well as the insurance and reinsurance premia. Using the classical stochastic control approach based on the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation we characterize the optimal strategy and provide a verification result for the value function via classical solutions of two backward partial differential equations. Existence and uniqueness of these solutions are discussed. Results under various premium calculation principles are illustrated and a new premium calculation rule is proposed in order to get more realistic strategies and to better fit our stochastic factor model. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to obtain sensitivity analyses. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01223&r=knm |
| By: | Bartke, Simon; Gelhaar, Felix |
| Abstract: | The extent to which individuals cooperate depends on the context. This study analyzes how interactions of workplace context elements affect cooperation when free-riding is possible. Context consists of a novel team building exercise, varying degrees of complementarity in production, and different remuneration schemes. After participation in the team building exercise and when complementarities are high, subjects exert higher efforts under team remuneration than under individual remuneration, despite the possibility to free-ride. Across all contexts, subjects cooperate significantly more than Nash equilibria predict. Compared to contexts in which not all contextual elements are cooperatively aligned, cooperation in a cooperative context relies significantly less on beliefs and personal values. Instead, a cooperative context changes how a subject's achievement motivation influences cooperation. Our findings present insights on how preferences react to context interactions and how these reactions enable organizations to use team incentives. |
| Keywords: | team building,workplace context,laboratory experiment,stability of preferences,motivation,cooperation |
| JEL: | D2 D91 L23 M14 M52 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2105&r=knm |
| By: | Mehrpouya, Afshin; Chowdhury, Imran |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we re-examine the notion that socially-responsible behavior by firms will lead to increased financial performance. By identifying the underlying processes, institutional settings and actors involved, we present a framework that is more attentive to the multiplicity and conditionality of the mechanisms operating in the often-tenuous connection between firms’ social behavior and financial performance. Building and expanding upon existing analyses of the CSP-CFP linkage, our model helps explain the mixed results from a wide range of empirical studies which examine this link. It also provides a novel theoretical account to help guide future research that is more attentive to conditionalities and contextual contingencies. |
| Keywords: | Business Ethics; Corporate Social Performance; Corporate Financial Performance; Corporate Social Responsibility; Mechanisms |
| JEL: | M14 |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1253&r=knm |
| By: | Adam, Brigitte; Aring, Jürgen; Berndgen-Kaiser, Andrea; Hohn, Uta; Jochemsen, Kerstin; Kötter, Theo; Krajewski, Christian; Mielke, Bernd; Münter, Angelika; Utku, Yasemin; Weiß, Dominik; Wiese-von Ofen, Irene; Zakrzewski, Philipp |
| Abstract: | Das Thema "Einfamilienhausgebiete im Umbruch" ist eine unterschätzte Herausforderung für viele Kommunen. Derzeit steht es noch nicht im Fokus politischer, planerischer und wissenschaftlicher Debatten. Insbesondere die Flüchtlingszuwanderung in den letzten Jahren hat die Diskussion um die Gestaltung von Raumentwicklung unter Schrumpfungsbedingungen in vielen Regionen ausgesetzt. Dabei werden die grundsätzlichen demografischen und gesellschaftlichen Megatrends von Schrumpfung, Alterung und Metropolisierung durch kurzfristige demografische Trendänderungen in der langfristigen Entwicklungsperspektive nicht merklich verändert werden. Die Auswirkungen des demografischen und gesellschaftlichen Wandels und die damit verbundene veränderte Marktsituation führen zu einer Umbruchsituation in immer mehr Einfamilienhaus- Gebieten (kurz: EFH-Gebiete) der 1950er bis 1970er Jahre. Es lassen sich regional unterschiedliche Betroffenheiten älterer EFH-Gebiete identifizieren. Dementsprechend lassen sich für unterschiedliche Raumkategorien verschiedene städtebauliche Ziele und Handlungsbedarfe mit unterschiedlichen Prioritäten hinsichtlich des Umgangs mit älteren Einfamilienhausbeständen ableiten [...]. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:109&r=knm |
| By: | Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper surveys independent Ireland’s economic policies and performance. It has three main messages. First, the economic history of post-independence Ireland was not particularly unusual. Very often, things that were happening in Ireland were happening elsewhere as well. Second, for a long time we were hampered by an excessive dependence on a poorly performing UK economy. And third, EC membership in 1973, and the Single Market programme of the late 1980s and early 1990s, were absolutely crucial for us. Irish independence and EU membership have complemented each other, rather than being in conflict: each was required to give full effect to the other. Irish independence would not have worked as well for us as it did without the EU; and the EU would not have worked as well for us as it did without political independence. |
| Keywords: | Ireland, economic history, trade policies, growth, Brexit |
| JEL: | N14 N74 |
| Date: | 2017–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_150&r=knm |
| By: | Satoshi Shimizutani (Nakasone Yasuhiro Peace Institute); Hiroyuki Yamada (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines long-term consequences of one of the most serious catastrophes ever inflicted on humankind: the atomic bombing that occurred in Hiroshima in 1945. While many victims died immediately or within a few years of the bombing, there were many negative effects on survivors in terms of both health and social/economic aspects that could last many years. Of these two life factors, health and social/economic aspects, the latter has largely been ignored by researchers. We investigate possible long-lasting effects using a new dataset covering the middle and older generations in Hiroshima some 60 years after the tragedy. Our empirical results show that Atomic Bomb Survivors did not necessarily suffer unfavorable life experiences in terms of the average marriage status or educational attainment but did experience significant disadvantages some aspects including the husband/wife combination of married couples, work status, mental health, and expectations for the future. Thus, survivors have suffered for many years after the catastrophe itself. |
| Keywords: | social discrimination,atomic bomb, radiation exposure, Hiroshima |
| JEL: | I18 I31 H12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2018-007&r=knm |
| By: | Anton Kolotilin (School of Economics, UNSW Business School); Valentyn Panchenko (School of Economics, UNSW Business School) |
| Abstract: | Growing evidence suggests that many social and economic networks are scale free in that their degree distribution has a power-law tail. A common explanation for this phenomenon is a random network formation process with preferential attachment. For a general version of such a process, we develop the pseudo maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments estimators. We prove consistency of these estimators by establishing the law of large numbers for growing networks. Simulations suggest that these estimators are asymptotically normally distributed and outperform the commonly used non-linear least squares and Hill (1975) estimators in finite samples. We apply our estimation methodology to a co-authorship network. |
| Keywords: | law of large numbers, consistency, degree distribution, scale-free network |
| JEL: | C15 C45 C51 D85 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:swe:wpaper:2018-10&r=knm |
| By: | Bollmann, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Die räumliche Konzentration von wissensbasierten Unternehmensgründungen wird sowohl in der Wissenschaft als auch in der Politik diskutiert. Das vorliegende Arbeitspapier untersucht die Bedeutung universitärer Entrepreneurship-Bildung auf regionale Unternehmensgründungen und inwiefern dies durch Clustermitgliedschaften der betrachteten Hochschulen beeinflusst wird. Somit wird sowohl die steigende Bedeutung von Hochschulen als wissenserzeugende Institutionen als auch die regional-ökonomische Debatte um Innovationscluster berücksichtigt. Unter Verwendung von EXIST-Gründerstipendien gelingt es, einen positiven Zusammenhang zwischen regionalen Gründungsaktivitäten und Entrepreneurial Education festzustellen. Darüber hinaus kann eine positive Beeinflussung dieses Zusammenhangs durch Clustermitgliedschaften hinsichtlich der Qualität der Spillover identifiziert werden. Die Ergebnisse weisen somit auf potenzielle Optimierungsmöglichkeiten im Zusammenspiel der Wirtschafts- und Wissenschaftspolitik hin. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wwuifg:180&r=knm |
| By: | Duda-Nyczak, Marta.; Viegelahn, Christian, |
| Abstract: | This paper studies wages in exporting and importing firms of the manufacturing sector in Africa, using firm-level data and employer-employee- level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. We find that exporters pay on average higher wages to their workers than non-exporters. It is gains from economies of scale that explain the positive wage premium of exporters, rather than differences in skill utilization, the employment of certain types of workers, or technology transfers. In contrast, there is no evidence for a positive firm-level wage premium of importing, at least after controlling for firm age, and the wage premium of importing at the employee-level is estimated to be negative. The paper also finds indirect evidence for a weaker bargaining power of workers employed by importers. These results fit into the African context, where the comparative advantage of firms in export markets is mainly based on low costs than on quality, and where firms import predominantly out of necessity than out of choice. Finally, the paper provides evidence that a gender wage gap is absent within trading firms, while we find evidence for a gender wage gap in non-trading firms. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987492202676&r=knm |
| By: | Eric D. , Ramstetter |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) contributed to exports by Thai manufacturing plants at the industry level in 2006. The mean export-sales ratio (export propensities) in heavily-foreign MNEs with foreign ownership shares of 90 percent or more exceeded 50 percent and heavily-foreign MNEs accounted for one-third of plant exports. Minority-foreign (10-49% foreign shares) and majority-foreign (50-89% shares) MNEs combined to account for another one-fifth of plant exports but had lower export propensities, about 30 percent and 40 percent, respectively. The mean export propensity for local plants in 20 sample industries was only 15 percent. In large samples of all 20 industries combined, econometric estimates controlling for industry affiliation with intercept dummies as well as the effects of the scale, age, factor intensities or labor productivity, and BOI-promotion status of plants also indicated that export propensities were the highest in heavily-foreign MNEs, followed by majority-foreign MNEs, minority-foreign MNEs, and lastly by local plants. Moreover, ownership-related differences in export propensities were highly significant statistically. When inter-industry heterogeneity was more fully accounted for by allowing slope coefficients as well as intercepts to differ among the 20 industries, export propensities were the highest in heavily-foreign MNEs and significantly higher than in local plants in 12 industries. However, differences among MNE ownership groups were usually insignificant and MNE-local differentials in export propensities differed substantially among industries, suggesting it is important account for inter-industry heterogeneity as fully as possible. |
| Keywords: | ownership, multinational enterprises, exports, Thailand, manufacturing, F14, F23, L33, L60, L81, O53 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000144&r=knm |
| By: | Simon Burgess; Lucinda Platt |
| Abstract: | The paper presents an empirical analysis of inter-ethnic relations among adolescents in England’s schools, the first national study of schools throughout England to relate inter-ethnic attitudes to both school and area ethnic composition. We combine survey data on ‘warmth’ of feeling for specific ethnic groups, friendships and attitudes with administrative data on the shares of those groups at school and area level. We confirm that the pupils have warmer feelings for their own ethnic group than for others. Second, we show that in schools with more pupils from another ethnic group the gap between a pupil’s views of those from her own group and from another ethnic group is smaller. This is true for attitudes of the majority and of minority ethnic groups. Third, we show that school composition (interpreted as contact) mitigates area composition (interpreted as exposure). |
| Date: | 2018–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:18/699&r=knm |
| By: | Gupta, Avinash |
| Abstract: | The article is essentially a book-review of Professor Vijay Joshi's recent work, '"India's Long Road: The Search for Prosperity". In this critical essay, I take a slightly revisionist approach when it comes to a 'typical'book review. For example, the length of this article goes well-beyond the standard convention. The ‘deviation’ from rules, however, has specific objectives. I have critically analyzed Dr. Joshi’s work and in so doing include relevant evidences, debates and questions not just from economics but also from other disciplines such as history and political science. |
| Keywords: | Critical book-review,dominant perspective in economics,underdevelopment |
| JEL: | A |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:179976&r=knm |
| By: | Schneider, Helena; Vogel, Sandra |
| Abstract: | Auswertungen auf Grundlage des Sozioökonomischen Panels zeigen, dass gut 53 Prozent der Beschäftigten in Deutschland nach einem Flächen-, Haustarifvertrag oder außertariflich bezahlt werden. Der Anteil der Arbeitnehmer, die von tarifvertraglichen Regelungen profitieren, steigt sogar auf über 63 Prozent an, wenn man Beschäftigte mit am Flächentarif orientierten Verdiens-ten mit zu dieser Gruppe zählt. Dabei sind Männer und Frauen sowie Arbeitnehmer aller Alters-klassen ähnlich gut durch tariflich geregelte Arbeitsbedingungen abgedeckt. Auch Befristungen finden sich in ähnlichem Umfang unter nach Tarifvertrag bezahlten sowie tarifungebundenen Arbeitnehmern. Dennoch gibt es Bereiche, in denen Tarifbindung auffällig selten zu finden ist. So werden nur 29 Prozent der Arbeitnehmer in geringfügiger Beschäftigung nach einem Tarifvertrag oder außertariflich bezahlt. Zudem weisen einige Branchen sehr geringe Tarifbindungsquoten auf. Das Gastgewerbe und der Bereich Information und Kommunikation fallen mit Tarifbindungsquoten von unter 40 Prozent gegenüber Bereichen wie Erziehung und Unterricht (71 Prozent) oder dem Bergbau und der Energie- und Wasserversorgung (75 Prozent) stark ab. Außerdem scheint ein strukturelles Organisationsproblem bei kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen zu bestehen. Während die Tarifbindungsquote unter den Befragten aus Unternehmen mit 2.000 oder mehr Mitarbeitern bei 73 Prozent liegt, geben nur knapp 26 Prozent der Befragten aus Unternehmen mit weniger als 20 Beschäftigten an, dass ihr Unternehmen flächen- oder haus-tarifgebunden ist. Wenig überraschend ist, dass in Betrieben mit einem Betriebsrat deutlich mehr Beschäftigte nach Tarifvertrag bezahlt werden als in Betrieben ohne Betriebsrat. Wer in einem tarifgebundenen Betrieb angestellt ist, bleibt im Durchschnitt länger als jemand, der in einem nicht-tarifgebundenen Betrieb arbeitet. Die Gewerkschaften befinden sich dabei zunehmend in einem Dilemma: Die Tarifbindung ist seit Jahren rückläufig und neue Mitglieder müssen zur Stärkung der gewerkschaftlichen Basis gewonnen werden. Ein Tarifvertrag muss daher potenziellen neuen Mitgliedern Vorteile beispielsweise in Form von Lohnsteigerungen oder Arbeitszeitmodellen bieten, die ihren Wünschen entsprechen. Zu hohe Tarifabschlüsse drängen zugleich jedoch weniger starke Unternehmen aus der Tarifbindung. Gewerkschaften müssen entsprechend Tarifverträge verhandeln, die für Arbeitnehmer und Unternehmen attraktiv sind, um die Tarifbindung in Deutschland zu stärken. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:152018&r=knm |
| By: | Matthew Hawkins (ICN Business School, CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine) |
| Abstract: | Consumer researchers have identified a handful of consumption collectives, such as consumption tribes, brand communities, and communities of practice. A consumption collective is a group of consumers who share consumption characteristics. Despite the use of participant screens in other research domains, published consumption collective research rarely reports on participant screens demonstrating their participants are actual members of the specific collective under investigation. Without participant screens researchers may mistakenly attribute conflicts over heterogeneous resources to intra-collective competition when the source may be inter-collective competition. This research demonstrates that consumer researchers can implement a short survey during field interviews as a participant screen. The article concludes by suggesting that marketing strategies and branding messages should be adjusted according to the individual consumer's consumption collective membership status. |
| Keywords: | Consumption collectives, Brand community, Communities of practice, Community marketing, Qualitative research |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01809954&r=knm |
| By: | Zhao, Bo (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | In aggregate, state appropriations are the largest revenue source for public higher education in the United States. However, these appropriations have significantly declined over past decades, drawing serious concerns about the potential negative impact on schools and students. This paper provides a more comprehensive study of the effects of state appropriations than previous research, while explicitly exploring and testing the heterogeneity of the effects by institutional type. It finds strong evidence of the negative effects of state appropriation cuts in the areas of tuition and fees, student financial aid, instructional and other school expenditures, and degree completion. Community colleges, which serve the most undergraduates but have not been well studied by past research, are shown to be particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of state funding cuts. |
| Keywords: | state appropriations; public higher education; community colleges; state funding cuts |
| JEL: | H2 H4 H7 I2 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:18-1&r=knm |
| By: | Amar, Anahí; García Díaz, Fernando |
| Abstract: | Este documento analiza la integración productiva entre la Argentina y el Brasil mediante la información provista por las matrices insumo-producto interpaís (ICIO, por sus siglas en inglés) de la OCDE. Al discriminar los intercambios de bienes y servicios intermedios de los finales, este tipo de matrices permite identificar las articulaciones productivas entre dos países con mayor precisión que a partir de las estadísticas de comercio exterior tradicionales. En este caso, el uso de matrices insumo-producto interpaís ha permitido identificar, entre otros aspectos relevantes de la relación bilateral, cuál es el patrón de especialización vertical generado entre la Argentina y el Brasil, cómo repercute el aumento de la producción y de las exportaciones de una economía en la otra (efectos multiplicadores), y cómo se manifiesta el avance de las economías asiáticas en la composición del comercio entre los dos países. |
| Keywords: | INTEGRACION ECONOMICA, COMERCIO INTRARREGIONAL, COMERCIO DE SERVICIOS, BIENES DE CONSUMO, PRODUCTIVIDAD, DESARROLLO INDUSTRIAL, COOPERACION INDUSTRIAL, ANALISIS DE INSUMO-PRODUCTO, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, INTRAREGIONAL TRADE, TRADE IN SERVICES, CONSUMER GOODS, PRODUCTIVITY, INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, INDUSTRIAL COOPERATION, INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS |
| Date: | 2018–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:43623&r=knm |
| By: | Bruno Ducoudre (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Pierre Madec (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | La plupart des pays européens ont, au cours de la crise, réduit plus ou moins fortement la durée effective de travail, via des dispositifs de chômage partiel, la réduction des heures supplémentaires ou le recours aux comptes épargne-temps, mais aussi via le développement du temps partiel (particulièrement en Italie et en Espagne), notamment du temps partiel subi. A contrario, l’évolution favorable du chômage américain s’explique en partie par une baisse importante du taux d’activité. [Premier paragraphe] |
| Keywords: | Chômage ; Emploi; Durée du travail |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5em1d7o0429qaq1qr78pk705sp&r=knm |
| By: | Anna Kokareva (Russian relations coordinator); Evgeniy Kutsenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ekaterina Islankina (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Innovation infrastructure plays a crucial role in the establishment of links among knowledge producers, intermediaries, and exploiters to deal with socio-economic challenges. Traditionally, the representatives of public sector, business and academia have been considered as the key stakeholders; however today there is a shift of interest towards end users or consumers of products and services. Users, especially citizens, are able to bring new insights of their experience while taking part in testing and validation of innovative products and / or services. Hence, it is essential to decide, which forms of innovation infrastructure units enable successful involvement of users into the design and innovation process. Since mid-2000, the European Union has successfully introduced a platform for testing and experimentation based on the users’ engagement – a living laboratory. The study investigates the features of living labs, including their possible business applications, and searching for the living labs’ analogous among the existing forms of innovation infrastructure units in Russia. Business Model Canvas and comparative analysis are employed to do the research. Taken together, our results support the idea that a living lab is a very special form of innovation infrastructure unit, since it brings a product, technology, or service closer to the market, based on the insights from the end users’ engagement in testing and experimentation |
| Keywords: | living laboratory, innovation infrastructure, cluster, user’s innovations, Business Model Canvas |
| JEL: | O31 O32 R58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:81sti2018&r=knm |
| By: | Willi Koll; Volker Andrew Watt |
| Abstract: | Ausgehend von den Ursachen der massiven Krise im Euroraum und insbesondere der ihr vorangegangenen Preis- und Nominallohnentwicklung in den Mitgliedstaaten analysiert diese Studie gravierende Mängel bestehender - aber auch neu vorgeschlagener - Regelungen und Institutionen der Europäischen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion. Es werden fundamentale Bedingungen für gesamtwirtschaftliche Stabilität, Konvergenz und Wachstum im Euroraum und den Mitgliedstaaten abgeleitet als auch die Notwendigkeit einer effektiven Koordinierung der makroökonomischen Akteure auf beiden Ebenen herausgearbeitet. Zur Umsetzung dieser Konzeption wird ein Vorschlag zur institutionellen Reform entwickelt. Er wirkt präventiv und baut auf bestehenden Regelungen und Institutionen auf. Zwei Gremien sollten gebildet werden. Zum einen ein Beratender Ausschuss für makroökonomische Konvergenz zur Erarbeitung von Szenarien und Optionen für eine gleichgewichtige und prosperierende, die Stabilitäts- und Wachstumsbedingungen respektierende Wirtschaftsentwicklung, und zum anderen ein Makroökonomischer Dialog zur politischen Bewertung und Umsetzung geeigneter Entwicklungspfade, der aus Vertretern von Geld- und Fiskalpolitik sowie der Sozialpartner besteht. Beide Gremien sind sowohl auf nationaler als auch auf WWU-Ebene einzurichten. Im Ergebnis sollte Europa bei den anstehenden Reformen nicht nur das fiskal- und finanzmarktpolitische Dach neu decken, sondern - auch gestützt auf sozialpartnerschaftliche Strukturen - die makroökonomischen Fundamente der WWU insgesamt verstärken. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:studie:61-2018&r=knm |
| By: | Amélie Adeline; Eric Delattre (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Socioeconomic status and health are positively related, also known as the "healthincome gradient". However, when considering the causal impact of income on health, the reverse causality might be at play. Income inequalities are an important factor in health inequality such that policy makers who aim at improving general health or narrowing inequalities using public policies, need to understand the sources and the direction of the causality between income and health. We thus investigate bivariate causal effects between the two by highlighting the Granger causality. Using the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we find evidence of persistent causal effects running from income to health and from health to income. Results, using a Full Information Maximum Likelihood estimator (FIML), suggest that considering a simultaneous equations approach is required because there are unobservable factors common to both equations in the individual e ects (statistically significant correlation between the two equations). |
| Keywords: | Granger causality; income; simultaneity; self-assessed health; FIML. |
| JEL: | C32 C33 D31 I10 J14 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2018-07&r=knm |
| By: | Ladislav Kristoufek |
| Abstract: | Analysis of long-range dependence in financial time series was one of the initial steps of econophysics into the domain of mainstream finance and financial economics in the 1990s. Since then, many different financial series have been analyzed using the methods standardly used outside of finance to deliver some important stylized facts of the financial markets. In the late 2000s, these methods have started being generalized to bivariate settings so that the relationship between two series could be examined in more detail. It was then only a single step from bivariate long-range dependence towards scale-specific correlations and regressions as well as power-law coherency as a unique relationship between power-law correlated series. Such rapid development in the field has brought some issues and challenges that need further discussion and attention. We shortly review the development and historical steps from long-range dependence to bivariate generalizations and connected methods, focus on its technical aspects and discuss problematic parts and challenges for future directions in this specific subfield of econophysics. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01616&r=knm |
| By: | Isabelle Joumard; Saïd Kechida; Hedi Larbi |
| Abstract: | Depuis le début des années 2000, le taux d'investissement a fléchi, tiré par la baisse de l'investissement des entreprises. Son niveau est faible par rapport à celui d'autres pays émergents. Les principales causes sont : des réglementations excessives sur le marché des produits, associées à des procédures administratives complexes, une fiscalité peu prévisible, des difficultés croissantes pour le passage des biens en douane et le transport maritime des marchandises ainsi qu’un système financier peu favorable aux jeunes entreprises et à celles en forte croissance. La levée de ces contraintes est essentielle pour relancer l'investissement des entreprises et, avec lui, la productivité, la création d'emplois, la compétitivité et le pouvoir d'achat de tous les tunisiens. La nouvelle loi sur l'investissement, en simplifiant le régime des autorisations, est un pas dans la bonne direction mais devra être pleinement mise en oeuvre et accompagnée par d'autres réformes. Il serait aussi souhaitable de mieux cibler les actions de l'État pour soutenir l'investissement, et notamment d'évaluer systématiquement l'impact et les bénéficiaires des incitations fiscales, y compris celles en faveur du logement. Parallèlement, il faut mieux gérer les infrastructures existantes et prioriser les projets d'infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | climat des affaires, financement, incitations fiscales, infrastructures, investissement, productivité, réglementations sur les marchés des produits, taille des entreprises, Tunisie |
| JEL: | E22 G24 H25 H54 K2 L11 O55 |
| Date: | 2018–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1477-fr&r=knm |
| By: | Florian Huber; Michael Pfarrhofer; Thomas O. Z\"orner |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a hierarchical modeling approach to perform stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models. We assume that a common distribution gives rise to the regime-specific regression coefficients. The mean as well as the variances of this distribution are treated as fully stochastic and suitable shrinkage priors are used. These shrinkage priors enable to assess which coefficients differ across regimes in a flexible manner. In the case of similar coefficients, our model pushes the respective regions of the parameter space towards the common distribution. This allows for selecting a parsimonious model while still maintaining sufficient flexibility to control for sudden shifts in the parameters, if necessary. In the empirical application, we apply our modeling approach to Euro area data and assume that transition probabilities between expansion and recession regimes are driven by the cointegration errors. Our findings suggest that lagged cointegration errors have predictive power for regime shifts and these movements between business cycle stages are mostly driven by differences in error variances. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1807.00529&r=knm |
| By: | Masami Imai (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of government loans on capital allocation efficiency with Japan’s prefecture-level data from 1975-2005. We address the endogeneity of government loans by using the exogenous variation in the share of government loans that is correlated with the intensity of political support for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the dominant political party. We find that the share of government loans is strongly and negatively correlated with the quality of capital allocation, as measured by the elasticity of industry investment to valueadded, Wurgler’s η, and that this negative correlation is more pronounced in declining industries than growing industries. Moreover, the results show that the share of government loans is negatively correlated with total factor productivity growth but positively correlated with investment-to-output ratio. Taken as a whole, Japan’s government financial institutions might have propped up declining industries in the LDP strongholds with overall negative effects on capital allocation efficiency and technical progress. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2018-002&r=knm |
| By: | Brian A'Hearn; Nicola Amendola; Giovanni Vecchi |
| Abstract: | Abstract: The paper argues that household budgets are the best starting point for investigating a number of big questions related to the evolution of the living standards during the last two-three centuries. If one knows where to look, historical family budgets are more abundant than might be suspected. And statistical techniques have been developed to handle the associated problems of small, incomplete, and unrepresentative samples. We introduce the Historical Household Budgets (HHB) Project, aimed at gathering data and sources, but also at creating an informational infrastructure that provides i) reliable storage and easy access to historical family budget data, along with ii) tools to configure the data as it is entered so as to harmonise it with present-day surveys. |
| Keywords: | household budgets, household budget surveys, living standards, inequality, poverty, survey, globalization, purchasing power parities,grouped data, poststratification. |
| JEL: | N30 I31 I32 C81 C83 D60 D63 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_144&r=knm |
| By: | Fadoua Chiba; Sebastien Rouillon |
| Abstract: | We model a simplified electric market with producers using either conventional or intermittent electric generators and consumers equipped with either smart or traditional meters. We calculate the investment in intermittent technologies and smart meters in a social optimum. We find that the optimal penetration of smart meters is increasing in the volatility of the electric spot price. As a consequence, intermittent capacities and smart-meters are complement, only if the correlation existing between intermittent energy and demand is negative or if the capacity of intermittent generators is large enough. Otherwise, larger intermittent capacities actually help to decrease the volatility of the electric spot price, making smart-meters less useful. We also give a numeral application, calibrated to represent the French electric market in 2016 and policy objective for 2030. We show in particular that a general adoption of smart meters would be optimal only if the cost of installing and operating smart meters was unrealistically low. |
| Keywords: | Capacity choice, electricity, intermittency, renewable energy |
| JEL: | D24 D41 Q41 L11 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2018-11&r=knm |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We discuss the status of financial inclusion, education, and literacy in Azerbaijan as well as measures to foster the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, which currently have inadequate access to financial resources. The Government of Azerbaijan is facing the primary challenge of defining its role in creating broader access to financial products and services. We highlight the barriers to financial inclusion, recommend solutions to overcoming the challenges, and discuss lessons learned and a potential way forward. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion; financial education; financial literacy; SME; household; Azerbaijan |
| JEL: | D14 D18 G21 G28 I28 |
| Date: | 2018–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0842&r=knm |
| By: | Ibrahim Bousmah (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); Gilles Grenier (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); David Gray (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON) |
| Abstract: | We use the Levenshtein linguistic distance measure to explore whether the distance between an immigrant’s mother tongue and a Canadian official language (English or French) has an impact on his/her economic integration into the labour market. Using microdata from the master files of the 2001 and 2006 Canadian censuses and from the 2011 National Household Survey, we investigate the relationship between linguistic distance and the intensity of use of English and French at work in the Montreal metropolitan area. That region is characterized by the presence of sizeable French and English speaking communities, as well as of a large number of immigrants from a wide variety of linguistic backgrounds. Those elements of linguistic diversity interact in the context of English being the lingua franca. We find that linguistic distances between immigrants’ mother tongues and English and French have an important impact on the relative intensities of use of the two Canadian official languages at work. We further investigate the role of the languages used at work on the earnings of immigrants by estimating earnings functions. We find that the use of both French and English are remunerated in the labour market, but that using English at work has a larger impact on earnings. |
| Keywords: | Linguistic distance, language of work, immigrants, Montreal, Canada, earnings. |
| JEL: | C21 C25 J01 J15 J31 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:1805e&r=knm |
| By: | Nitsa Kasir (Kaliner); Idit Sohlberg |
| Abstract: | The implementation of a supervision and incentive process for identical workers may lead to wage variance that stems from employer and employee optimization. The harder it is to assess the nature of the labor output, the more important such a process becomes, and the influence of such a process on wage development growth. The dynamic model presented in this paper shows that an employer will choose to pay a worker a starting wage that is less than what he deserves, resulting in a wage profile that fits the classic profile in the human-capital literature. The wage profile and wage variance rise at times of technological advancements, which leads to increased turnover as older workers are replaced by younger workers due to a rise in the relative marginal cost of the former. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01332&r=knm |
| By: | Niimi, Yoko (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine the intergenerational transmission of educational attainment using data on Japan. By exploiting unique information on whether children have ever given up schooling for financial reasons and, if they have, which level of schooling they have forgone, we attempt to assess the role of borrowing constraints in determining intergenerational educational mobility in a more direct manner than previous attempts made in the literature. We find a steady increase in the extent of the intergenerational transmission of educational attainment, resulting in lower intergenerational mobility, during the postwar period in Japan. We also find that while the importance of borrowing constraints for determining intergenerational educational mobility declined at one time, it seems to have become significant enough once again to lower intergenerational educational mobility for the youngest cohort we examined. However, our analysis also shows that the relative importance of adolescent academic ability for children’s educational attainment has increased in recent years, thereby underlining the increasing importance of early investments in children’s human capital for their subsequent academic advancement. |
| Keywords: | borrowing constraints; education; intergenerational mobility; Japan |
| JEL: | I24 J62 |
| Date: | 2018–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0830&r=knm |
| By: | Rosario Crinò (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Giovanni Immordino; Salvatore Piccolo |
| Abstract: | We develop a model in which two countries choose their enforcement levels non- cooperatively, in order to deter native and foreign individuals from committing crime in their territory. We assume that crime is mobile, both ex ante (migration) and ex post (eeing), and that criminals who hide abroad after having committed a crime in a country must be extradited back. We show that, when extradition is not too costly, countries overinvest in enforcement compared to the cooperative outcome: insourcing foreign criminals is more costly than paying the extradition cost. By contrast, when extradition is sufficiently costly, a large enforcement may induce criminals to ee the country in which they have perpetrated a crime. Surprisingly, the fear of extraditing criminals enables countries to coordinate on the efficient (cooperative) outcome. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Enforcement, Extradition, Fleeing, Migration. |
| JEL: | K14 K42 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def071&r=knm |
| By: | Sean A. Anthonisz (University of Sydney); Talis Putnins (Finance Discipline Group, University of Technology Sydney) |
| Abstract: | We develop a parsimonious liquidity-adjusted downside capital asset pricing model to investigate whether phenomena such as downward liquidity spirals and flights to liquidity impact expected asset returns. We find strong empirical support for the model. Downside liquidity risk (sensitivity of stock liquidity to negative market returns) has an economically meaningful return premium that is 10 times larger than its symmetric analogue. The expected liquidity level and downside market risk are also associated with meaningful return premiums. Downside liquidity risk and its associated premium are higher during periods of low marketwide liquidity and for stocks that are relatively small, illiquid, volatile, and have high book-to-market ratios. These results are consistent with investors requiring compensation for holding assets susceptible to adverse liquidity phenomena. Our findings suggest that mitigation of downside liquidity risk can lower firms’ cost of capital. |
| Keywords: | liquidity risk; liquidity spiral; conditional moment; pricing kernel; downside risk |
| Date: | 2017–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:ppaper:2017-1&r=knm |
| By: | Sacit Hadi Akdede (Department of Public Finance, Adnan Menderes University); Victor Ginsburgh (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles); Aynur Uçkaç (Department of Public Finance, Adnan Menderes University) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the number of roles in theatre plays has been decreasing over time. Playwrights seem to internalize the costs of producing plays with too many roles by downsizing. This downsizing is not a recent phenomenon: it is going for many decades. We also analyze which plays get produced. This paper uses a unique data set of repertory archives of Turkish State Theatres, covering plays from decades. |
| Keywords: | Number of roles, cast size, Baumol cost disease, playwrights, Turkish State Theatre |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cue:wpaper:awp-01-2018&r=knm |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | El Informe Nacional de Monitoreo de la Eficiencia Energética de Guatemala fue preparado como parte de las actividades llevadas a cabo por el Ministerio de Energía y Minas (MEM) de Guatemala en el marco del Programa Base de Indicadores de Eficiencia Energética (BIEE), coordinado por la CEPAL con la contribución de la Agencia Alemana para la Cooperación Internacional (GIZ) y el apoyo técnico de la Agencia Francesa del Medio Ambiente y la Gestión de la Energía (ADEME). Este informe analiza las tendencias de la eficiencia energética y el consumo de energía para los sectores industrial, transporte, servicios, residencial y agropecuario en Guatemala. Los indicadores propuestos por el BIEE constituyen una herramienta útil para el monitoreo de los programas y el análisis de políticas de eficiencia energética. |
| Keywords: | RECURSOS ENERGETICOS, CONSUMO DE ENERGIA, RENDIMIENTO ENERGETICO, SECTOR INDUSTRIAL, TRANSPORTE, VIVIENDA, SECTOR TERCIARIO, AGRICULTURA, SILVICULTURA, PESCA, POLITICA ENERGETICA, ESTADISTICAS DE ENERGIA, ENERGY RESOURCES, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, TRANSPORT, HOUSING, SERVICE INDUSTRIES, AGRICULTURE, SILVICULTURE, FISHING, ENERGY POLICY, ENERGY STATISTICS |
| Date: | 2018–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:43651&r=knm |
| By: | Catherine Viot (UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon) |
| Abstract: | Uberization, defined as “the rethinking of the business model of a company or a business sector by the entry of a new actor proposing the same services at lesser prices" (Le Petit Larousse, 2018), extends to more and more varied services. Is this phenomenon of uberization always in favor of consumers? A reflection according to three axes brings a balanced answer to this question. The first axis underlines the difficulty in measuring the quality of “uberized” services and notices a generalization of uberization. But the access to this kind of offer is confined to the consumers connected to the Internet. The second axis questions the disruptive nature of uberization in terms of innovation, while recognizing an improvement of the customer experience. Finally, the third axis shows that the consumer is relatively winning in terms of appropriation of value, compared with the producer of the service. Nevertheless, the big winners, in this business model, are platforms. |
| Abstract: | L'ubérisation, définie comme "la remise en cause du modèle économique d'une entreprise ou d'un secteur d'activité par l'arrivée d'un nouvel acteur proposant les mêmes services à des prix moindres" (Le Petit Larousse, 2018), se propage à des services de plus en plus variés. Ce phénomène d'ubérisation est-il toujours favorable aux consommateurs ? Une réflexion menée selon trois axes permet d'apporter une réponse nuancée à cette question. Le premier axe souligne la difficulté de mesurer la qualité du service ubérisé et dresse le constat d'une généralisation de l'ubérisation. Mais l'accès à ce type d'offre est circonscrit aux consommateurs connectés à Internet. Le second axe questionne la nature disruptive de l'ubérisation en tant qu'innovation, tout en reconnaissant une amélioration de l'expérience client. Enfin, le troisième axe montre que le consommateur est relativement gagnant en termes d'appropriation de la valeur, par rapport au producteur du service. Néanmoins, les grands gagnants de ce modèle économique sont les plateformes. Abstract Uberization, defined as " the rethinking of the business model of a company or a business sector by the entry of a new actor proposing the same services at lesser prices" (Le Petit Larousse, 2018), extends to more and more varied services. |
| Keywords: | uberization,Service marketing,Value creation and capture,Business model,Ubérisation,Marketing des services,Valeur Ajoutée création/partage,Innovation,Plateforme numérique,Modèle d'affaires |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01803877&r=knm |
| By: | Jing Cai; Adam Szeidl |
| Abstract: | We organized business associations for the owner-managers of young Chinese firms to study the effect of business networks on firm performance. We randomized 2,820 firms into small groups whose managers held monthly meetings for one year, and into a “no-meetings” control group. We find that: (1) The meetings increased firm revenue by 8.1 percent, and also significantly increased profit, factors, inputs, the number of partners, borrowing, and a management score; (2) These effects persisted one year after the conclusion of the meetings; and (3) Firms randomized to have better peers exhibited higher growth. We exploit additional interventions to document concrete channels. (4) Managers shared exogenous business-relevant information, particularly when they were not competitors, showing that the meetings facilitated learning from peers. (5) Managers created more business partnerships in the regular than in other one-time meetings, showing that the meetings improved supplier-client matching. |
| Date: | 2017–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ceu:econwp:2018_3&r=knm |
| By: | Koopmans, Ruud; Veit, Susanne; Yemane, Ruta |
| Abstract: | In einem großen Feldexperiment haben wir die Ursachen von Diskriminierung gegenüber Bewerbern mit Migrationshintergrund untersucht. Dazu versendeten wir tausende Bewerbungen von fiktiven Personen an reale Stellenausschreibungen in acht Berufen im gesamten Bundesgebiet. Neben der Ethnizität der Bewerber (deutschstämmig oder Migrationshintergrund in einem von 34 Herkunftsländern), ihrem phänotypischen Erscheinungsbild (Schwarz, Weiß oder Asiatisch) und ihrer Religionszugehörigkeit (keine, Christlich, Muslimisch oder Buddhistisch/Hinduistisch) variierten wir weitere Merkmale der Bewerbungen, wie das Geschlecht des Bewerbers, den Notendurch-schnitt, ob der Bewerbung ein Referenzschreiben beilag und ob Informationen über die derzeitige Vertragssituation bereitgestellt wurden. Unsere Ergebnisse bestätigen, dass Bewerber mit Migrationshintergrund gegenüber Bewerbern ohne Migrationshintergrund diskriminiert werden. Allerdings variiert das Ausmaß der Diskriminierung deutlich zwischen Herkunftsgruppen: Bewerber mit Migrationshintergrund in West- und Südeuropa sowie Ostasien werden nicht signifikant diskriminiert, während andere Herkunftsgruppen erhebliche Nachteile erfahren. Auch Bewerber mit schwarzem Phänotyp und mit muslimischer Religion erfahren signifikante Diskriminierung. Mit Blick auf die klassischen Erklärungsansätze für Diskriminierung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt - d.h. präferenzbasierte und statistische Diskriminierung - zeigen unsere Analysen, dass die kulturelle Distanz zwischen Herkunftsländern und Deutschland die Diskriminierung gegenüber verschiedenen Gruppen deutlich besser erklärt als leistungsbezogene Gruppenmerkmale wie der durchschnittliche Bildungsstand. Somit sprechen unsere Befunde stärker für präferenzbasierte Diskriminierung als für statistische Diskriminierung. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmit:spvi2018104&r=knm |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | El Informe Nacional de Monitoreo de la Eficiencia Energética de México fue preparado como parte de las actividades llevadas a cabo por la Comisión Nacional para el Uso Eficiente de la Energía (CONUEE) de México en el marco del Programa Base de Indicadores de Eficiencia Energética (BIEE), coordinado por la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) con la contribución de la Agencia Alemana para la Cooperación Internacional (GIZ) y el apoyo técnico de la Agencia Francesa del Medio Ambiente y la Gestión de la Energía (ADEME). Este informe presenta una serie de indicadores que muestran la evolución de la eficiencia energética en México. Analiza las tendencias del consumo de energía y de las medidas de eficiencia energética a nivel nacional para los sectores energético, industrial, transporte, comercial-servicios, residencial y agropecuario, además del nexo entre agua y energía. Los indicadores propuestos por el programa BIEE constituyen una herramienta útil para el monitoreo de los programas y el análisis de políticas de eficiencia energética. |
| Keywords: | RECURSOS ENERGETICOS, CONSUMO DE ENERGIA, RENDIMIENTO ENERGETICO, POLITICA ENERGETICA, HIDROCARBUROS, ENERGIA ELECTRICA, SECTOR INDUSTRIAL, TRANSPORTE, VIVIENDA, SECTOR TERCIARIO, AGRICULTURA, SILVICULTURA, PESCA, AGUA, ESTADISTICAS DE ENERGIA, ENERGY RESOURCES, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, ENERGY POLICY, HYDROCARBONS, ELECTRIC POWER, INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, TRANSPORT, HOUSING, SERVICE INDUSTRIES, AGRICULTURE, SILVICULTURE, FISHING, WATER, ENERGY STATISTICS |
| Date: | 2018–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:43612&r=knm |
| By: | Bruni, Michele |
| Abstract: | China still lags behind Europe along the path of the demographic transition and therefore is still much younger. However, due to the speed with which the fertility rate dropped and life expectancy increased, China ageing process will proceed at a very fast space and around the middle of the century the population of China is projected to be as old as that of France and the UK and older than that of the USA. The paper tries to evaluate the labour market and welfare implications of this process, also by an economic indicator of dependency and socioeconomic burden. |
| Keywords: | Ageing,China,EU,dependency indicators,technological change,migrations |
| JEL: | J11 J14 J21 F22 O33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:222&r=knm |
| By: | Cerami, Alfio |
| Abstract: | This article explores the lights of Iraq, Iraq's variety of capitalism (VoC) and its system of public and fiscal governance. The first section examines Iraq's VoC, which I define oil-led state-captured capitalism with associated oil-led state-captured war-fare regime. In formerly ISIS-occupied territories, war developments turned the system into an Insurgent ISIS-captured capitalism with associated Insurgent ISIS-captured war-fare regime. The second section investigates electricity usage. The nighttime lights analysis is based on near real-time big data. It includes high-resolution remote-sensing and satellite imagery from the NASA Earth Observatory. I use the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the Suomi NPP satellite. Data on greenhouse gases are obtained through the AQUA and TERRA satellites derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. I also use the AURA satellite with the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) sensor, as well as the TERRA satellite with the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) sensor. The third part discusses the repercussions of electricity usage for good governance, for good regulatory and for good fiscal practices, as well as for development and growth. The concluding part briefly discusses the “taxman approach” and the introduction of a new fiscal contract necessary to resolve negative incentives in oil-led war economies. |
| Keywords: | Iraq, political economy, ISIS, geo-spatial analysis, night lights, remote-sensing, satellite imagery, public governance, fiscal governance, oil-led state-captured capitalism, oil-led state-captured war-fare regime, state capture, policy capture. |
| JEL: | C1 O11 O12 P16 P45 |
| Date: | 2018–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87276&r=knm |
| By: | Bruno Smichowski; Cédric Durand (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Steven Knauss (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the variety of socioeconomic outcomes from global value chains (GVCs) participation through a crosscountry analysis. In order to bridge the methodological and theoretical gap between GVCs critical insights and recent uses of the framework by international institutions, it proposes a novel definition of trade in GVCs and elaborates new indicators of GVC participation and value capture. Using these indicators and data from the Trade in Value added database it presents new descriptive statistics. Through principal component and cluster analyses it identifies three distinctive development patterns related to various degrees and modes of GVC participation: social upgrading mirage, reproduction of the core, and unequal growth. It finally discusses the complementarity of these patterns and explains why the results obtained challenge the narrative that GVC participation per se is a recipe for development. |
| Date: | 2018–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-01817426&r=knm |
| By: | Francesca Biagini; Andrea Mazzon; Thilo Meyer-Brandis |
| Abstract: | We consider a banking network represented by a system of stochastic differential equations coupled by their drift. We assume a core-periphery structure, and that the banks in the core hold a bubbly asset. The banks in the periphery have not direct access to the bubble, but can take initially advantage from its increase by investing on the banks in the core. Investments are modeled by the weight of the links, which is a function of the robustness of the banks. In this way, a preferential attachment mechanism towards the core takes place during the growth of the bubble. We then investigate how the bubble distort the shape of the network, both for finite and infinitely large systems, assuming a non vanishing impact of the core on the periphery. Due to the influence of the bubble, the banks are no longer independent, and the law of large numbers cannot be directly applied at the limit. This results in a term in the drift of the diffusions which does not average out, and that increases systemic risk at the moment of the burst. We test this feature of the model by numerical simulations. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01728&r=knm |
| By: | Baumeister, Christiane; Hamilton, James D. |
| Abstract: | Reporting point estimates and error bands for structural vector autoregressions that are only set identified is a very common practice. However, unless the researcher is persuaded on the basis of prior information that some parameter values are more plausible than others, this common practice has no formal justification. When the role and reliability of prior information is defended, Bayesian posterior probabilities can be used to form an inference that incorporates doubts about the identifying assumptions. We illustrate how prior information can be used about both structural coefficients and the impacts of shocks, and propose a new distribution, which we call the asymmetric t distribution, for incorporating prior beliefs about the signs of equilibrium impacts in a nondogmatic way. We apply these methods to a three-variable macroeconomic model and conclude that monetary policy shocks were not the major driver of output, inflation, or interest rates during the Great Moderation. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E52 |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2018_014&r=knm |
| By: | Benjamín García |
| Abstract: | The effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates introduces an explicit non-linearity for feasible monetary policy paths: interest rates cannot go below a certain rate. In a forward looking environment, the ELB can affect the monetary policy decisions not only when the bound is reached, but also when there is a possibility that the bound may be reached in the future. In this context, as a recommendation for monetary policy in a low-inflation environment, Reifschneider and Williams (2002 FOMC) propose an asymmetric Taylor Rule with a threshold level that automatically drives the interest rate to zero whenever they fall below one percent. I test the hypothesis that the Federal Reserve has behaved in a manner consistent with Reifschneider and Williams’ advice, finding evidence of a negative correlation between the level of the interest rate and the strength of the monetary policy response. Using an estimated nonlinear DSGE model, I show that a monetary policy which act symmetrically and asymmetrically can have significantly different consequences. In particular, I study the relevance of this behavior for the analysis of a permanent rise of the inflation target. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:819&r=knm |
| By: | Kun Jiang; Wolfgang Keller; Larry D. Qiu; William Ridley |
| Abstract: | This paper studies international joint ventures, where foreign direct investment is performed by a foreign and a domestic firm that together set up a new firm, the joint venture. Employing administrative data on all international joint ventures in China from 1998 to 2007—roughly a quarter of all international joint ventures in the world—we find, first, that Chinese firms chosen to be partners of foreign investors tend to be larger, more productive, and more likely subsidized than other Chinese firms. Second, there is substantial international technology transfer not only to the joint venture itself but also to the Chinese joint venture partner firm. Third, with technology spillovers typically outweighing negative competition effects, joint ventures generate net positive externalities to other Chinese firms in the same industry. Joint venture externalities are large, perhaps twice the size of wholly-owned FDI spillovers, and it is R&D-intensive firms, including the joint ventures themselves, that benefit most from these externalities. Furthermore, the positive external joint venture effect is larger if the foreign firm is from the U.S. rather than from Japan or Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, while this effect is virtually absent in broad sectors that include economic activities for which China’s FDI policy has prohibited joint ventures. |
| Keywords: | international joint ventures, partner selection, technology spillovers, foreign direct investment, competition effects |
| JEL: | F14 F23 O34 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7065&r=knm |
| By: | Hyejin Cho (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In examining the global imbalance by the excess liquidity level, the argument is whether commercial banks want to hold excess reserves for the precautionary aim or expect to get better return through risky decision. By pictorial representations, risk preference in the Machina's triangle (1982, 1987) encapsulates motivation to hold excess liquidity. This paper introduces an endogenous liquidity model for the financial sector where the imbalance argument comes from credit rationing extended from outside liquidity (Holmstrom and Tirole, 2011). We also conduct a stylistic analysis of excess liquidity in Jordan and Lebanon from 1993 to 2015. As such, the proposed model exemplifies the combination of credit, liquidity and regulation. |
| Keywords: | credit rationing, excess liquidity, inside liquidity, risk preference,E58,L51 |
| Date: | 2017–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01375423&r=knm |
| By: | P. P. Osei; A. Jasra |
| Abstract: | Option valuation problems are often solved using standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods. These techniques can often be enhanced using several strategies especially when one discretizes the dynamics of the underlying asset, of which we assume follows a diffusion process. We consider the combination of two methodologies in this direction. The first is the well-known multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method, which is known to reduce the computational effort to achieve a given level of mean square error relative to MC in some cases. Sequential Monte Carlo (or the particle filter (PF)) methods have also been shown to be beneficial in many option pricing problems potentially reducing variances by large magnitudes (relative to MC). We propose a multilevel particle filter (MLPF) as an alternative approach to price options. The computational savings obtained in using MLPF over PF for pricing both vanilla and exotic options is demonstrated via numerical simulations. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01734&r=knm |
| By: | Tim Byrnes; Tristan Barnett |
| Abstract: | We develop a general framework for applying the Kelly criterion to stock markets. By supplying an arbitrary probability distribution modeling the future price movement of a set of stocks, the Kelly fraction for investing each stock can be calculated by inverting a matrix involving only first and second moments. The framework works for one or a portfolio of stocks and the Kelly fractions can be efficiently calculated. For a simple model of geometric Brownian motion of a single stock we show that our calculated Kelly fraction agrees with existing results. We demonstrate that the Kelly fractions can be calculated easily for other types of probabilities such as the Gaussian distribution and correlated multivariate assets. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.05293&r=knm |
| By: | Laïla Benraiss-Noailles (IRGO - Institut de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux 4 - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux); Catherine Viot (UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this research is to identify the dimensions of employer brand equity (EBE) that influence the attractiveness of low-cost companies. EBE reflects the value of the employer brand as an intangible asset; its perceptual value is multidimensional (value interest, social, economic…). The main question is to know if the levers of organizational attractiveness (OA) differ according to the propensity to accept a job in a so-called low-cost company. A survey, carried out with potential job applicants, shows that the willingness to accept a job offer in a low-cost company depends on the attributes applicants are looking for with respect to a potential employer. For those who are willing to accept such a job, OA is essentially related to the interest value (creativity and innovation), whereas those who reject it are looking for a company offering good social relations (social value) and high wages (economic value). |
| Abstract: | Cette recherche s’intéresse aux effets du capital-marque employeur (CME) sur l’attractivité organisationnelle (AO). Le CME reflète la valeur de la marque employeur en tant qu’actif intangible. La valeur perceptuelle du CME est multidimensionnelle (valeur intérêt, sociale, économique, etc.). La question centrale est de savoir si les leviers de l’AO diffèrent selon la propension à accepter un emploi dans une entreprise dite low-cost. Une étude montre que cette propension dépend des attributs recherchés chez un employeur. Pour ceux qui sont prêts à accepter un tel emploi, l’AO résulte de la valeur intérêt, alors que ceux qui rejettent cette possibilité recherchent la valeur sociale et la valeur économique. |
| Keywords: | low-cost strategy,employer brand attractiveness,Employer Brand-Equity,Capital-marque employeur,attractivité organisationnelle,stratégie low-cost |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01803635&r=knm |
| By: | Augurzky, Boris; Beivers, Andreas; Pilny, Adam |
| Abstract: | Die Privatisierung von Krankenhäusern, d.h. der Trägerwechsel von kommunalen und privat-freigemeinnützigen hin zu privat-gewinnorientierten Trägern, wird seit Beginn dieser Entwicklung Anfang der 1990iger Jahre kontrovers diskutiert. Zur Versachlichung der Debatte wurden in den Jahren 2009, 2012 und 2015 Faktenbücher zur Bedeutung der Krankenhäuser in privater Trägerschaft mit Daten aus den Jahren 2006, 2009 bzw. 2012 erstellt. Ziel war stets eine wissenschaftlich fundierte Bewertung der Krankenhausprivatisierung in Deutschland durch Darstellung und Auswertung relevanter Kennziffern zum Krankenhausmarkt, differenziert nach Trägerschaft. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwimat:122&r=knm |
| By: | Takayuki Oishi; Jun Tomioka; Shin Sakaue |
| Abstract: | We propose a job matching model of intermediary labor markets by developing the seminal work of Kelso and Crawford (1982, Econometrica 50:1483-1504). Using this model, we show that for an arbitrary fixed broker-fee rate, the salary-adjustment process converges to a core allocation in intermediary labor markets where high-skilled workers are matched to high-technology firms by the private middleman and low-skilled workers are matched to low-technology firms by the public middleman. This result means that the dual labor market is emerged as a stable outcome of job-matching promoted by the private and public middlemen. Finally, we discuss empirical relevance of our theoretical model by using the data of job placement services in Japan. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e124&r=knm |
| By: | Ferreira Sequeda, Maria (Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark); Golsteyn, Bart (General Economics 2 (Macro)); Parra Cely, Sergio (General Economics 0 (Onderwijs)) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of grade retention on secondary school performance by considering a change in Colombia’s educative legislation. In 2010, the rule that forced schools to retain up to a 5% of students was abolished. Exploiting variation in schools’ retention rates in a difference-in-differences framework, we find that retained (marginally non-retained) students improve (decline) their performance on language but not on math test scores. We suggest the school’s position in the retention distribution, and the proportion of inexperienced teachers in the classroom, can be the mechanisms by which the marginally decreasing returns of grade retention are determined. |
| Keywords: | retention, Colombia, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | I20 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2018018&r=knm |
| By: | Ferreira Sequeda, Maria (Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark); Golsteyn, Bart (General Economics 2 (Macro)); Parra Cely, Sergio (General Economics 0 (Onderwijs)) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of grade retention on secondary school performance by considering a change in Colombia’s educative legislation. In 2010, the rule that forced schools to retain up to a 5% of students was abolished. Exploiting variation in schools’ retention rates in a difference-in-differences framework, we find that retained (marginally non-retained) students improve (decline) their performance on language but not on math test scores. We suggest the school’s position in the retention distribution, and the proportion of inexperienced teachers in the classroom, can be the mechanisms by which the marginally decreasing returns of grade retention are determined. |
| Keywords: | retention, Colombia, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | I20 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umaror:2018003&r=knm |
| By: | Philipp Meinen; Horst Raff |
| Abstract: | Based on a theoretical model featuring heterogeneous retailers that may source globally and operate as chains, we derive a number of hypotheses that link trade integration to retail firm performance and to the structure of retail markets. We empirically test these predictions using Danish microdata for the period 1999 to 2008. We find that importing retailers are larger, more profitable, and have a higher propensity to have multiple shops than domestically sourcing firms. While this is partly due to self-selection, we also present evidence for improved perfor-mance caused by firms’ importing activities. Moreover, we find that retail imports are associated with a higher exit probability of small retailers and greater local retail market concentration. Overall, we obtain support for the model’s predictions and argue that the observed adjustments may imply additional gains from trade absent from models lacking a distribution sector. |
| Keywords: | international trade, consumer goods, retailing, retail chains, market concentration |
| JEL: | F12 L11 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7099&r=knm |
| By: | Busch, Berthold; Matthes, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Neue Gefährdungen bei innerer und äußerer Sicherheit in Europa erfordern eine stärkere EU. Zudem reißt der Brexit eine Lücke in die EU-Finanzen. Dieser Reformdruck muss in der Diskussion über den nächsten Mehrjährigen Finanzrahmen (MFR) 2021-2027 dazu genutzt werden, die Prioritäten im EU-Haushalt neu zu ordnen. Die EU-Kommission hat hierzu verschiedene Optionen in den Raum gestellt, die mit zwei Bewertungsmaßstäben normativ bewertet werden: Erstens wird erörtert, welche Politikbereiche von der EU und welche von den Mitgliedstaaten erfüllt werden sollen. Bei der Prüfung auf einen EU-Mehrwert auf Basis bestehender Kriterien und Studien spielen grenzüberschreitende Spillover, Skaleneffekte und Präferenzunterschiede sowie das Subsidiaritätsprinzip eine wichtige Rolle. Zweitens werden zahlreiche Politikbereiche daraufhin untersucht, ob und in welchem Maß sie die drei Musgraveschen Funktionen der Finanzpolitik erfüllen: Allokation/Wachstum, Distribution/Strukturwandelabfederung, makroökonomische Stabilisierung. Dabei ergibt sich folgende ordnungspolitische Einordnung wichtiger Politikbereiche: Im Bereich Sicherheit - vor allem bei Verteidigungspolitik, Außengrenzensicherung und Terrorbekämpfung - sind EU-Kompetenzen klar begründbar, wenn die EU aus allokativer Sicht öffentliche Güter erbringen. Hier sind im EU-Haushalt deutlich mehr Mittel nötig. In den Bereichen Forschung, Bildung, Infrastruktur und Digitalisierung können gezielte staatliche Ausgaben zwar grundsätzlich das Wachstumspotenzial fördern. Jedoch ist dies primär Aufgabe der Mitgliedstaaten. Eine EU-Kompetenz ist aber begründbar, wenn hinreichende grenzüberschreitende Spillover bestehen. Diese zukunftsorientierten Aufgaben sollten im EU-Haushalt bei grenzüberschreitender Relevanz deutlich aufgestockt werden. Bei der Agrar- und Kohäsionspolitik fällt das Urteil überwiegend kritisch aus. Bei Agrarsubventionen hat die EU weder klar nachweisbare Kompetenzen noch lassen sie sich hinreichend mit den Musgrave-Funktionen rechtfertigen. Auch bei der Kohäsionspolitik für wohlhabendere Regionen ist eine Kompetenz der EU nicht stichhaltig begründbar. Daher sollte die hochdotierte Agrar- und Kohäsionspolitik depriorisiert werden. Durch Umschichtungen sind große Hebel verfügbar. Mit einer rund 2-prozentigen Einsparung könnten alternativ das Programm Erasmus+ verdoppelt, die Ausgaben für grenzüberschreitende Infrastruktur um die Hälfte erhöht oder die von der EU-Kommission vorgeschlagenen zusätzliche Verteidigungsausgaben finanziert werden. Für eine Finanzierung aller hier als prioritär identifizierten Aufgabenposten wäre in einer moderaten Variante nur eine Kürzung der Agrar- und Kohäsionsausgaben von weniger als 12 Prozent im neuen MFR nötig, wenn man ein nominales Wirtschaftswachstum von gut 28 Prozent innerhalb von sieben Jahren annimmt. Die EU-Kommission sollte daher noch mutiger bei ihren Reformvorschlägen sein. Die Bundesregierung mindert den Reformdruck, indem sie schon frühzeitig höhere EU-Beiträge in Aussicht stellt, und ihr fehlt offensichtlich der Mut für eine grundlegende Reform der Agrar- und Kohäsionspolitik. |
| JEL: | H61 O52 H41 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:172018&r=knm |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O. (University of Warwick); Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | The 2004 accession of 8 Eastern European countries to the European Union (EU) was accompanied by fears of mass migration. The United Kingdom - unlike many other EU countries - did not opt for temporary restrictions on the EU’s free movement of labour. We document that following EU accession more than 1 million people (ca. 3% of the UK working age population) migrated from Eastern Europe to the UK. We show that they mostly settled in places that had limited prior exposure to immigration. We provide evidence that these areas subsequently saw smaller wage growth at the lower end of the wage distribution and increased pressure on the welfare state, housing and public services. Using novel geographically disaggregated data by country-of-origin, we measure the effects of Eastern European migration on these outcomes for the UK-born and different groups of immigrants. Our results are important in the context of the UK’s Brexit referendum and the ongoing EU withdrawal negotiations in which migration features as a key issue. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy ; Migration ; Globalization ; EU |
| JEL: | R23 N44 Z13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1165&r=knm |
| By: | Safia Khan; Kezia Lilenstein; Morne Oosthuizen; Christopher Rooney (University of Cape Town; Researcher) |
| Abstract: | The potential for Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs) to influence development have been widely documented, however the impact of ICTs on the employment prospects of those in SSA have been poorly recorded, with most studies focused on specific localised contexts. This paper models the impact of ICTs on the employment outcomes of individuals in 12 African countries, taking into account the varying nature of self-employment compared to other types of third party employment. The paper finds a correlation between mobile phone ownership, the intensity of mobile phone use, and employment in a selection of countries and contexts. Internet use in 2012 is largely unrelated to the employment outcome in these countries. The impact of ICT use differs by geolocation, sex and age. Older people, most likely with more established prior networks, are more likely to have ICTs impact their employment outcome. ICTs are more likely to influence the employment outcome of males, and those in urban areas. |
| Keywords: | ICTs, Mobile Phones, Intensity of Mobile Use, Internet, Employment, Self Employment, Rural, Urban |
| JEL: | J64 N77 O3 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:201703&r=knm |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | Authorizations of appropriations are provisions of law that authorize funds to be provided through a future appropriation law to carry out a program or function; they differ from appropriations, which provide funding once those authorizations are in place. CBO has updated its January 2018 report to the Congress on programs funded for fiscal year 2018 for which authorizations of appropriations have expired or will expire during the current fiscal year. |
| JEL: | H50 H60 H61 |
| Date: | 2018–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:541260&r=knm |
| By: | Gori, Luca; Manfredi, Piero; Sodini, Mauro |
| Abstract: | A central policy issue in the battle against HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is whether and when high-prevalence countries might become fully autonomous in designing and implementing their own intervention policies aimed to control the disease. The aim of this research is twofold. First, it develops a framework for explaining economic development in a general equilibrium growth model with endogenous fertility and endogenous longevity under the threat of a deadly enduring infectious disease, as is the case of HIV/AIDS in SSA. Second, it aims to shed light on the interplay between foreign aid and endogenous domestic public policies in those SSA countries severely afflicted by HIV. In particular, it investigates the macro-economic dynamic feasibility and related effects of an intervention policy where the overall amount of resources devoted to HIV/AIDS is the sum of an exogenous component representing foreign aid and an endogenous public expenditure. Both these policies allow to bring HIV under control, but show quite different responses in terms demo-economic variables, mainly passing through the fertility response to the evolving epidemic conditions. |
| Keywords: | HIV transmission,Economic development,Endogenous fertility,Endogenous longevity |
| JEL: | C61 C62 J1 J22 O41 O47 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:216&r=knm |
| By: | Ocampo, Fernando |
| Abstract: | Las mercancías producidas bajo los regímenes de zona franca de los países centroamericanos son de vital importancia para la economía regional por su aporte a la producción, su valor agregado y la diversificación de destinos comerciales que han propiciado en cada país. Por esta razón, contar con marcos legales claros y uniformes en este esquema es fundamental para continuar avanzando en el desarrollo económico de los países involucrados. En virtud de lo anterior, el presente estudio muestra cuáles son las regulaciones nacionales, regionales y los compromisos suscritos mediante tratados de libre comercio que tutelan el comercio intrarregional de bienes producidos en zona franca. Además, se analizan las mejores prácticas que otros países han seguido para homologar y uniformar las disposiciones sobreel tema. Se espera que el documento elaborado sirva como base para la discusión de este tópico en Centroamérica y brinde información relevante sobre el estado de las legislaciones vigentes a los distintos actores políticos y comerciales de la región. |
| Keywords: | INTEGRACION ECONOMICA, ZONAS DE LIBRE COMERCIO, LIBRE COMERCIO, MERCANCIAS, ZONAS FRANCAS INDUSTRIALES, REGLAS Y NORMAS, CONVENIOS COMERCIALES, ESTADISTICAS COMERCIALES, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, FREE TRADE AREAS, FREE TRADE, GOODS, EXPORT PROCESSING ZONES, RULES AND REGULATIONS, TRADE AGREEMENTS, TRADE STATISTICS |
| Date: | 2018–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:43650&r=knm |
| By: | Arulampalam. Wiji (Department of Economics,University of Warwick); Devereux, Michael P (Said Business School,Oxford University); Liberini, Federica (ETH Zurich) |
| Abstract: | We use firm-level data to investigate the impact of taxes on the international location of targets in M & A, allowing for heterogeneous responses by companies. The statutory tax rate in the target country is found to have a negative impact on the probability of an acquisition in that country. In addition, the estimated size of the effect is found to depend on whether (i) acquirer is a domestic or a multinational enterprise ; (ii) the acquisition is domestic or cross-border; and (iii) the acquirer's country has a worldwide or territorial tax system. |
| Keywords: | Multinational enterprises ; cross-border expansion ; target choice ; corporation income tax ; mixed logit |
| JEL: | G34 H25 H32 C25 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1168&r=knm |
| By: | Meinen, Philipp; Raff, Horst |
| Abstract: | Based on a theoretical model featuring heterogeneous retailers that may source globally and operate as chains, we derive a number of hypotheses that link trade integration to retail firm performance and to the structure of retail markets. We empirically test these predictions using Danish microdata for the period 1999 to 2008. We find that importing retailers are larger, more profitable, and have a higher propensity to have multiple shops than domestically sourcing firms. While this is partly due to self-selection, we also present evidence for improved performance caused by firms' importing activities. Moreover, we find that retail imports are associated with a higher exit probability of small retailers and greater local retail market concentration. Overall, we obtain support for the model's predictions and argue that the observed adjustments may imply additional gains from trade absent from models lacking a distribution sector. |
| Keywords: | international trade,consumer goods,retailing,retail chains,market concentration |
| JEL: | F12 L11 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kcgwps:12&r=knm |
| By: | Ralph Luetticke (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); University College London (UCL)) |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy affects both intertemporal consumption choices and portfolio choices between liquid and illiquid assets. The monetary transmission, in turn, depends on the distribution of marginal propensities to consume and invest. This paper assesses the importance of heterogeneity in these propensities for the transmission of monetary policy in a New Keynesian business cycle model with uninsurable income risk and assets with different degrees of liquidity. Liquidity-constrained households have high propensities to consume but low propensities to invest, which makes consumption more and investment less responsive to monetary shocks compared to complete markets. Redistribution through earnings heterogeneity and the Fisher channel from unexpected inflation further amplifies the consumption response but dampens the investment response. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Heterogeneous agents, General equilibrium |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1819&r=knm |
| By: | Julia Bachtrögler (WIFO); Harald Oberhofer (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates whether there is a link between the successful implementation of European co-hesion policy and the voters' attitudes towards the EU. Using the French presidential elections in 2017 as a case study, we do not solely consider regional funds expenditures but also its induced effects in a re-gion as further potential determinant of pro-European or eurosceptic voting behaviour. In order to measure the effectiveness of EU structural funds and Cohesion Fund assignment, firm-level employ-ment effects in French NUTS-2 regions stemming from project allocation during the multi-financial framework 2007-2013 are estimated. The obtained average treatment effects are, in a next step, used together with other regional characteristics to capture the citizens' perceived exposure to the EU in an empirical voting model for the French presidential election in 2017. The estimation results reveal a sig-nificant negative relationship between the effectiveness of EU funds allocation and the vote share of the eurosceptic candidate Marine Le Pen. |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2018:i:567&r=knm |
| By: | Meenagh, David (Cardiff Business School); Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School); Wickens, Michael (Cardiff Business School); Xu, Yongdeng (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | We review recent findings in the application of Indirect Inference to DSGE models. We show that researchers should tailor the power of their test to the model under investigation in order to achieve a balance between high power and model tractability; this will involve choosing only a limited number of variables on whose behaviour they should focus. Also recent work reveals that it makes little difference which these variables are or how their behaviour is measured whether via A VAR, IRFs or Moments. We also review identification issues and whether alternative evaluation methods such as forecasting or Likelihood ratio tests are potentially helpful. |
| Keywords: | Pseudo-true inference, DSGE models, Indirect Inference; Wald tests, Likelihood Ratio tests; robustness |
| JEL: | C12 C32 C52 E1 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2018/14&r=knm |
| By: | Austan D. Goolsbee; Peter J. Klenow |
| Abstract: | We use Adobe Analytics data on online transactions for millions of products in many different categories from 2014 to 2017 to shed light on how online inflation compares to overall inflation, and to gauge the magnitude of new product bias online. The Adobe data contain transaction prices and quantities purchased. We estimate that online inflation was about 1 percentage point lower than in the CPI for the same categories from 2014--2017. In addition, the rising variety of products sold online, implies roughly 2 percentage points lower inflation than in a matched model/CPI-style index. |
| JEL: | E31 O47 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24649&r=knm |
| By: | Hamidin, Dede |
| Abstract: | This article describes the concept of monetary theory and inflation according to Al Maqrizi's thought. In simple terms, inflation means the rising prices of goods from the prevailing circumstances. Taqiyuddin Abul Abbas Al-Husaini from Maqarizah, Cairo. Or better known as Al-Maqrizi. He said in some parts of his book that inflation is generally divided into two, namely Natural Inflation and Human Error Inflation. This paper will try to compile some of his thoughts - more specifically the problem of monetary theory and inflation - with conventional positivistic opinions and concepts in the same field. |
| Keywords: | inflation, monetary, al Maqrizi |
| JEL: | A11 |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87552&r=knm |
| By: | Halbheer, Daniel; Bertini, Marco; Buehler, Stefan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of consumer resistance, which is triggered by deviations from a psychological reference point, on optimal pricing and cost communication. Assuming that consumers evaluate purchases not only in the material domain, we show that consumer resistance reduces the pricing power and profit. We also show that consumer resistance provides an incentive to engage in cost communication when consumers underestimate cost. While cheap communication does not affect behavior, persuasive communication may increase sales and profit. Finally, we show that a firm can benefit from engaging in operational transparency by revealing information about features of the production process. |
| Keywords: | Price Fairness; Cost Communication; Operational Transparency |
| JEL: | L11 L21 M31 |
| Date: | 2018–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1251&r=knm |
| By: | Diaz-Rainey, Ivan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sise, Greg (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We explore the history and current status of green energy finance in Australia and New Zealand. Although both countries have enviable renewable energy resources with a 100% renewable mix considered feasible, the two countries present highly contrasting contexts for energy finance. Currently, and largely for historical reasons, renewables make up over 80% of the electricity capacity in New Zealand, whereas in Australia this is 17%. Interestingly, between them and over time, the two countries have employed most of the important policy tools available to incentivize renewables and green energy finance (e.g., carbon taxes, carbon trading, a green investment bank, a green certification market, and feed-in-tariffs). Despite this, we show that between 2004 and 2017 both countries did not meet their potential in terms of renewables and have lower levels of green energy investment relative to gross domestic product per capita than many other developed countries. The Australian and New Zealand context provides many lessons for other jurisdictions—ranging from the need for cross-party and regulatory commitment to energy transition, to the need for policy stability. Indeed, a key issue in Australia and New Zealand is the challenge of designing electricity markets that support energy transition and the investment that it requires. Incumbents in both jurisdictions are fearful of a “death spiral” induced by distributed power, and in Australia political instability and market design issues contributed to a major energy crisis in 2017. However, the crisis, the Paris Agreement, and the associated impetus of new governments in both countries suggest green energy investment is set to increase in the coming years. |
| Keywords: | energy finance; energy transition; green investment bank; feed-in-tariffs; emissions trading; electricity markets; green certificate market |
| JEL: | F21 G20 H23 O13 Q40 Q42 Q48 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2018–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0840&r=knm |
| By: | Mascia, Danilo V. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | By employing a sample of 20,956 observations of nonfinancial small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) headquartered in the euro area, between 2009 and 2015, we test whether young businesses are more likely to face credit rejections from lenders than their older peers. Our findings appear to confirm our suspicions that new enterprises consistently experience higher denials from banks compared with more established businesses. Such a result is stable to different model specifications and is also confirmed once we handle the issue of sample selection bias potentially affecting our data. Additional tests also reveal that credit constraints are particularly difficult for young SMEs located in Southern and Central Europe, as well as for those operating in the “trade” industry. Overall, our evidence suggests that actions from the policy maker could be desirable to support the viability of credit and, thus, ensure the growth of young businesses in the euro area. |
| Keywords: | SMEs; young enterprises; bank loans; credit rationing |
| JEL: | D82 G20 G21 G30 L26 M13 |
| Date: | 2018–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0844&r=knm |
| By: | Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | In einem Vollreservesystem verlieren Geschäftsbanken die Möglichkeit, Geld aus dem Nichts zu schöpfen und sich mit Sichteinlagen ihrer Kunden zu refinanzieren. Ein Systemwechsel hätte Vor- und Nachteile. Die hervorstechenden Vorteile liegen bei einer höheren Finanzstabilität und höheren Geldschöpfungsgewinnen für den Staat. Außerdem könnte die Geldmengenentwicklung genauer kontrolliert werden, allerdings würden die Zinsen im Gegenzug als geldpolitisches Instrument verloren gehen und stärker schwanken. Nachteilig wären benötigte zusätzliche Regulierungen, die eine Umgehung des Vollreservesystems verhindern. Zudem sind steigende Kosten für Finanzdienstleistungen und eine wahrscheinliche Anpassungskrise des Bankensektors zu erwarten, was zunächst die Realwirtschaft belasten dürfte. Das Vollgeldkonzept nach Huber, das im Juni 2018 Gegenstand einer Schweizer Volksabstimmung ist, kombiniert ein Vollreservesystem mit Nettogeld. Unter dem Strich ist die Vollreserve eine spannende Alternative zum gegenwärtigen Geldsystem, das aber, wenn überhaupt, nur schrittweise eingeführt werden sollte. |
| Keywords: | Vollreserve,Teilreservesystem,Vollgeld,Geldsystem,full reserve,fractional reserve,positive money,monetary system |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkbw:15&r=knm |
| By: | Bo Zhou; Ramon van den Akker; Bas J. M. Werker |
| Abstract: | We propose a new class of unit root tests that exploits invariance properties in the Locally Asymptotically Brownian Functional limit experiment associated to the unit root model. The invariance structures naturally suggest tests that are based on the ranks of the increments of the observations, their average, and an assumed reference density for the innovations. The tests are semiparametric in the sense that they are valid, i.e., have the correct (asymptotic) size, irrespective of the true innovation density. For a correctly specified reference density, our test is point-optimal and nearly efficient. For arbitrary reference densities, we establish a Chernoff-Savage type result, i.e., our test performs as well as commonly used tests under Gaussian innovations but has improved power under other, e.g., fat-tailed or skewed, innovation distributions. To avoid nonparametric estimation, we propose a simplified version of our test that exhibits the same asymptotic properties, except for the Chernoff-Savage result that we are only able to demonstrate by means of simulations. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.09304&r=knm |
| By: | Casey, Gregory; Klemp, Marc |
| Abstract: | We study the interpretation of instrumental variable (IV) regressions that use historical or geographical instruments for contemporary endogenous regressors. We find that conventional IV regressions generally cannot estimate the long-run causal effect of an endogenous explanatory variable when there is a time gap between the instrument and the endogenous variable. We develop a model that can overcome this problem and apply our results to important topics in the field of economic growth, including the effect of institutions on economic growth. We find effects that are smaller than those estimated in the existing literature, demonstrating the quantitative importance of our study. |
| Keywords: | Instrumental Variable Regression; Long-Run Economic Growth |
| JEL: | C10 C30 O10 O40 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12980&r=knm |
| By: | Marta Kahancová |
| Abstract: | Collective bargaining is an important instrument in wage-setting processes, but lacks underpinning with empirical data. Little is known about what exactly is agreed upon in collective bargaining. Few countries maintain databases with coded collective agreements; and agreements are coded for different topics and levels of detail. Attempts to discuss bargaining results at EU level are hampered by the lack of systematic data-collection of agreements. Social partners perceive an increasing need for cross-country comparisons, i.e., because of growing importance of foreign direct investment in EU member states. Therefore, EU-level social partners in commerce, UNI Europa and EuroCommerce, have expressed their interest in a study of content of collective agreements negotiated by their members at national level. Report 2 studies how particular institutional attributes in sector-specific bargaining systems relate to each other. The findings are quantified in an index of constructive industrial relations (CIR-index). Supported by the European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, VS/2016/0106 |
| Date: | 2018–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:24&r=knm |
| By: | Reder, Laura; Klünder, Timo |
| Abstract: | The development of Industry 4.0 (I4.0) necessitates flexible Supply Chain Networks (SCN). Therefore, this paper assesses the flexibility of SCN in context of I4.0. The assessment is based on a framework of metrics embedded in the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model. The methodology employed integrates the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) to weight the selected SCOR indicators and to determine the SCN I4.0-Readiness. The computations are based on empirically tested SCOR-data and expert judgements. The developed I4.0-Readiness-Assessment tool reveals a lack of SCN's utilization of the full potential of I4.0. |
| Keywords: | Industry 4.0,Supply Chain Networks,Flexibility Assessment |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rublpw:16&r=knm |
| By: | Monika Banaszewska (Poznan University of Economics and Business); Ivo Bischoff (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | We want to find out whether grants-in-aid help the recipient government to get re-elected. We take Poland as our testing ground and analyze the impact of EU funds spent within a municipality on mayoral elections in 2010 and 2014. We employ an instrumental variables approach to account for the endogeneity of EU funds. Our results show that EU funds do not generally increase the mayors’ chance of reelection. This result holds for total EU funds spent as well as for funds spent on investments. We test whether the impact of EU funds is moderated by municipal characteristics. We find no effect for the economic or fiscal situation of municipalities, a positive but economically negligible effect for human capital endowment and a substantial effect for the share of pro-European citizens. Spending EU funds increases incumbent mayors’ chance of re-election in municipalities with a large share pro-EU citizens and reduces it in municipalities dominated by EU sceptics. |
| Keywords: | grants-in-aid, EU, Poland, local elections, instrumental variable regressions |
| JEL: | D72 H77 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201822&r=knm |
| By: | Afrifa, Godfred; Tingbani, Ishmael |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The paper presents comprehensive evidence on the relationship between Working Capital Management (WCM) and SMEs’ performance by taking into consideration the plausible effect of cash flow. Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopts a panel data regression analysis on a sample of 802 British quoted small and medium enterprises listed on the Alternative Investment Market for the period from 2004 to 2013. Findings – The results of the study demonstrate the importance of cash flow on SMEs’ WCM and performance. According to our findings, WCM has a significantly negative impact on SME performance. However, with available cash flow, we find a significantly positive relationship. Additionally, our evidence revels that cash flow constrained (non-constrained) SMEs are able to enhance their performance through decreased (increased) investment in WCM. Practical implications – Overall, the results demonstrate the importance of cash flow availability on SMEs’ working capital needs. Our findings suggest that in an event of cash flow unavailability (availability) managers should strive to reduce (increase) the investment in working capital in order to improve performance. Originality/value – This current study incorporates the relevance of cash flow in assessing the association between WCM and firm performance. |
| Keywords: | Working Capital Management, Performance, SMEs, Cash Flow |
| JEL: | G3 G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82894&r=knm |
| By: | Gerke, Rafael; Giesen, Sebastian; Kienzler, Daniel |
| Abstract: | After hitting the lower bound on interest rates, the Eurosystem engaged in a public sector purchase programme (PSPP) and forward guidance (FG). We use prior and posterior predictive analysis to evaluate the importance of parameter uncertainty in an analysis of these policies. We model FG as an anticipated temporary interest rate peg. The degree of parameter uncertainty is considerable and increasing in the length of FG. The probability of being able to reset prices and wages is the most important factor driving uncertainty about inflation. In contrast, variations in financial intermediaries' net worth adjustment costs have little impact on in ation outcomes. |
| Keywords: | prior/posterior predictive analysis,anticipated interest rate peg,parameter uncertainty,euro area,QE,PSPP,forward guidance puzzle |
| JEL: | C53 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:122018&r=knm |
| By: | Hasan Cömert (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Erinç Yeldan (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Developing countries have encountered many economic crises since the 1980s, due mainly to structural problems related to their integration into the global economy. The Turkish economy is by no means an exception, and suffered significantly from the crises of 1994, 2001 and 2008–09. This paper investigates the tales of these three crises to shed light on the propagation mechanisms of crises and their implications for developing countries, given the Turkish experience. Our study is aiming at complementing existing studies by giving a very broad comparative picture of the main macroeconomic trends before and after the crises at the expense of ignoring many important details explained in other studies. This comparison can be also useful for understanding possible (and under current conditions highly unavoidable) implications of current developments in Turkish economy. Although there are many differences in the emergence of recent crises in Turkey, significant similarities can be found between the 1994 and 2001 crises. The crisis of 2008–09 can be considered exceptional in many aspects. The first two episodes were deemed to be mostly finance-led and finance-driven, with repercussions on the real sectors thereafter; but the 2008–09 crisis was a fully-fledged real sector crisis from the beginning, amid a direct collapse in employment and real economic productivity. |
| Keywords: | Turkish Economy, Developing Countries, Crises |
| JEL: | F32 E63 E66 G01 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1809&r=knm |
| By: | Judy Stephenson |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper provides new information and data on how work and pay actually operated for skilled and semi-skilled men on large London construction projects in the early 1700s, and for the first time, offers detailed firm level evidence on the number of days per year worked by men. Construction workers’ working days were bounded by structural factors of both supply and demand, men worked a far lower number of days than has been assumed until now. This has implications for our understanding of the ‘industrious revolution’, and industrialisation. |
| Keywords: | England; industrial revolution; industrious revolution; labour input; living standards; wages, building craftsmen |
| JEL: | J3 J4 J6 N33 N63 |
| Date: | 2018–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_162&r=knm |
| By: | Reuse, Sandra |
| Abstract: | Das Papier widmet sich der Frage, warum ein Reformhandeln in manchen sozialstaatlichen Handlungs-bereichen schwer fällt und Pfadabhängigkeiten nicht überwunden werden. Als wichtige Ursache wird die unzureichende Berücksichtigung spezifischer Adressatengruppen durch Politik und Ministerialverwaltung diskutiert. Dies dürfte zum einen an der mangelnden Sichtbarkeit von Personengruppen liegen, die zwar ähnliche Belange und Schutzbedarfe haben, es jedoch aufgrund vielfältiger Anforderungen nicht schaffen, eine politisch wirksame Interessenvertretung auszubilden. Ein Beispiel für eine solche Gruppe sind die neuen Erwerbsformen, worunter Solo-Selbstständige, atypisch oder wechselhaft Beschäftigte verstanden werden. Doch die mangelnde politische Sichtbarkeit dieser und anderer Personengruppen könnte - und sollte, zumindest zugunsten der besonders Schutzbedürftigen unter ihnen - ausgeglichen werden. Dies wäre jedenfalls der normative Anspruch an den Sozialstaat, zumal sozialwissenschaftliche Analyse, Wirkungsforschung und Evidenzbasierung in der Regierungsarbeit immer stärker betont werden. Ein zweiter Erklärungsansatz befasst sich daher mit Hürden und Fehlanreizen beim Zustandekommen sozialstaatlicher Reformen. Da ein großer Teil der Gesetzentwürfe in der Regierungsverwaltung erarbeitet wird, rückt die Rolle der Ministerialbürokratie beim Agendasetting in den Blick. Es wird die These diskutiert, dass Adressatengruppen oder Probleme tendenziell gerade dann "übersehen" werden, wenn integrierte, ressortübergreifende Lösungen für sie nötig wären. Wie gezeigt werden kann, bestehen schon für eine zuständigkeitsübergreifende Problemanalyse, also dem ersten Schritt im Agendasetting, Fehlanreize und Hürden. Sie resultieren auch aus den Regelungen der Gemeinsamen Geschäftsordnung der Bundesministerien (GGO) zur Federführung und Abstimmung von Maßnahmen. Diese verstärken Silothinking und negative Koordination, wie sie aus politikwissenschaftlicher Sicht für die Regierungsverwaltung schon seit den 70er Jahren kritisiert werden. Eine adressatenorientierte Analyse, die neu entstandene oder wichtiger werdende Schutzbedarfe in den Mittelpunkt rückt, könnte Abhilfe schaffen. Angesichts immer schneller werdender, teilweise disruptiver Veränderungen im Zuge von Globalisierung und Digitalisierung wird aber auch angeregt, die Regelungen für eine ressortübergreifende Zusammenarbeit zu modernisieren. |
| Keywords: | Sozialpolitik,Wirkungsforschung,Adressatenorientierung,Schutzbedarfe,neue Erwerbsformen,ressortübergreifende Kooperation |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbpre:p2018003&r=knm |
| By: | Michael Bleaney; Atsuyoshi Morozumi; Zakari Mumuni |
| Abstract: | An inflation-targeting regime has been in place in Ghana since 2007, but compared to other inflation-targeting countries it has been conspicuously unsuccessful. Since 2013 inflation has persistently exceeded the announced target by four percentage points or more, despite the target never falling below a relatively unambitious 8% per annum. We investigate whether the poor conduct of monetary policy is responsible for this outcome, and find that is not. Monetary policy reaction functions are similar to those estimated for countries with successful monetary policies, and interest rates respond in the theoretically recommended way to inflation shocks. |
| Keywords: | expectations; inflation targeting; interest rates. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcfc:18/07&r=knm |
| By: | Seojeong Lee |
| Abstract: | I propose a nonparametric iid bootstrap procedure for the empirical likelihood, the exponential tilting, and the exponentially tilted empirical likelihood estimators that achieves asymptotic refinements for t tests and confidence intervals, and Wald tests and confidence regions based on such estimators. Furthermore, the proposed bootstrap is robust to model misspecification, i.e., it achieves asymptotic refinements regardless of whether the assumed moment condition model is correctly specified or not. This result is new, because asymptotic refinements of the bootstrap based on these estimators have not been established in the literature even under correct model specification. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted in dynamic panel data setting to support the theoretical finding. As an application, bootstrap confidence intervals for the returns to schooling of Hellerstein and Imbens (1999) are calculated. The result suggests that the returns to schooling may be higher. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.00953&r=knm |
| By: | Montt, Guillermo E.; Maître, Nicolas.; Amo-Agyei, Silas. |
| Abstract: | Electricity generation from renewable sources has been touted as a win-win solution for the advancement towards both environmental sustainability and decent work for all. This paper analyses the employment effects of electricity generation by different sources on a worldwide scale as observed since the year 2000. It finds that the additional generation from renewable, non-hydro, energy sources has been related to higher job creation in the electricity sector when compared to other energy sources, notably fossil fuel- based technologies. As predicted, renewables also help reduce GHG emissions. Estimating the economy-wide effects through employment multipliers provide more evidence that developing renewable energy has positive environmental and employment impact throughout the entire economy. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987492402676&r=knm |
| By: | Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a variety of indicators to show that demand constrained output during the period of growth slowdown 2011-17. It also draws on research to show the macroeconomic structure of the economy is such that a policy induced demand contraction affects output more than it affects inflation. In this context it evaluates the application and working of inflation targeting. The framework agreed to was flexible inflation targeting but it was too narrowly and strictly implemented initially, although there are signs of moderation in 2018. There was too much emphasis on a weak aggregate demand channel to reduce inflation. Since inflation forecasts were biased upwards the more effective expectations anchoring channel of inflation targeting was under-utilized. Space available due to positive commodity shocks was not made use of so that the negative output gap further widened, even as potential output itself fell. The output sacrifice imposed was therefore higher than necessary. Finally, possible mechanisms to ensure IT is implemented flexibly as required in the Indian context are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Inflation targeting, monetary policy committee, commodity price shocks, output sacrifice |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F43 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2018-007&r=knm |
| By: | Jeri, Ramsito |
| Abstract: | Al-Ghazali is a scholar whose ideas are concerned with the state of society. Some of his work deals with the improvement of social life at that time. The writing of this article aims to examine the work of Al Ghazali and connect it with the economic and political situation in the life of Al-Ghazali. The method used is the descriptive method. The results show that Al-Ghazali is a scholar who cares about the problems of society, including the economic problems of society. |
| Keywords: | economic law, al Ghazali, Islamic economy, economic thinking |
| JEL: | B00 |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87027&r=knm |
| By: | Jean-Luc Moriceau (DEFIS - Droit, Economie, Finances et Sociologie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologie, Economie et Management - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Grenoble École de Management (GEM) - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management) |
| Abstract: | In a cocktail party celebrating a strategic success, some participants are asked to pay tribute to Polemos. Several insights into struggles and fights inside business affairs will be exposed - however is Polemos only inside the discourses, is not he also one of the guests ? |
| Abstract: | Lors d'un cocktail célébrant une victoire stratégique, certains participants sont tenus de faire l'éloge de Polémos. Différentes conceptions de la lutte et des conflits dans le monde des affaires vont ainsi s'exposer - mais Polémos est-il seulement dans les discours, ne sera-t-il pas aussi invité à cette soirée ? |
| Keywords: | Writing as performance,Polémos,Conflict,Competition,Recognition,Ecriture comme performance,Conflits,Reconnaissance,Concurrence |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:gemptp:hal-01820245&r=knm |
| By: | Fong, Christian (Stanford University); Malhotra, Neil (Stanford University); Margalit, Yotam M. (Tel Aviv University) |
| Abstract: | Politicians are widely perceived to lose significance upon leaving office. Yet media accounts often highlight politicians' legacies as a source of influence that endures even after they retire. This article assesses these contrasting views by investigating the substance, endurance, and significance of political legacies. We develop a theoretical account of legacies and their relevance to contemporary politics, emphasizing that in addition to "hard legacies"--concrete and enduring policy achievements--politicians often establish "soft" legacies--memories enshrined in the public's consciousness. Soft legacies can be, but are not necessarily, tied to the substance of one's hard legacy. We ground our theoretical account empirically by testing a series of observable implications using data from online discussion forums, original surveys of both citizens and political elites, thousands of former politicians' Wikipedia pages, and a randomized experiment. We find that establishing a lasting legacy is a key motivation of public officials. More generally, our findings provide substantial evidence that legacies influence contemporary policy debates long after a leader steps down. |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3589&r=knm |
| By: | Catia Batista; Pedro Vicente; Marcel Fafchamps |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study information sharing through text messages among rural Mozambicans with access to mobile money. For this purpose, we conducted a lab-in-the-field experiment involving exogeneously assigned information links. In the base game mobile money users receive an SMS containing information on how to redeem a voucher for mobile money. They are then given an opportunity to share this information with other subjects. We find that participants have a low propensity to redeem the voucher. They nonetheless share the information with others, and many subjects share information they do not use themselves, consistent with warm glow. We observe that there is more information sharing when communication is entirely anonymous, and we uncover no evidence of homophily in information sharing. We introduce various treatments: varying the cost of information sharing; being shamed for not sending vouchers; and allowing subjects to appropriate (part of) the value of the shared information. All these treatments decrease information sharing. The main implication is that, to encourage information sharing, the best is to keep it simple. |
| Keywords: | Information, lab-in-the-field experiment, mobile money, Mozambique, NOVAFRICA, social networks |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:novafr:wp1801&r=knm |
| By: | Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Sinha, Darshy (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the fiscal marksmanship of the macro-fiscal variables of Union Government ex-ante and ex-post to the formulation of fiscal rules in India. The fiscal marksmanship is the accuracy of budgetary forecasting. The fiscal rules have been legally mandated in India in the form of fiscal responsibility and budget management Act (FRBM Act) in 2003, with a criteria of fiscal-deficit to GDP threshold ratio of 3 per cent and gradual phasing out of revenue deficit. Using Theil’s inequality coefficient (U) based on the mean square prediction error, the paper estimates the magnitude of errors in the budgetary forecasts in India during the period ex-ante and ex-post to fiscal rules, and also decomposed the errors into biasedness, unequal variation and random components. The decomposition of errors is to analyze the source of error in both the regimes. Our results found that in both regimes, the proportion of error due to random variation has been significantly higher, which is beyond the control of the forecaster. In other words, the error due to bias of the policy maker in preparing the Union Budget has been negligible in the period ex-ante and ex-post to fiscal responsibility and budget management (FRBM) Act in India. This result has significant policy implications especially in the context of repeal of 2003 FRBM Act in India and the Union Government has announced clauses for a ‘New FRBM Act’ in India in the Finance Bill 2018. |
| Keywords: | : fiscal marksmanship ; budget forecast errors ; fiscal rules ; rational expectations |
| JEL: | C32 C53 E62 H50 H60 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:18/234&r=knm |
| By: | Ivan Mendieta-Munoz; Mengheng Li |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the evolution of long-run output and labour productivity growth rates in the G-7 countries during the post-war period. We estimate the growth rates consistent with a constant unemployment rate using time-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and a Heckman-type two-step estimation procedure that deals with the possible endogeneity problem in the econometric models. The results show a significant decline in long-run growth rates that is not associated with the detrimental effects of the Great Recession, and that the rate of growth of labour productivity appears to be behind the slowdown in long-run GDP growth. |
| Keywords: | Long-run output growth rates, unobserved components, Kalman filter, time- varying parameter models, stochastic volatility, Heckman two-step bias correction. JEL Classification: O41, O47, C15, C32 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2018_02&r=knm |
| By: | James P. Gander |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to analyzing firm advertising under uncertainty. The approach considers the simultaneity (orduality) of two effects of advertising, one effect on the probability associated with the bundle of goods the typical buyer purchases and the other effect on the probability associated with the time the buyer spends in the store making the purchases. While bundle and time are well explored in the literature, our simultaneity approach to determine the optimum level (and type) of advertising results in implications that are not present in the literature. The novelty of this alternative approach is that it shows that there can be the possibility of an equivalent dual optimal advertising effect on the expected value of the bundle and the expected value of the time spent. The implications of such an equivalence (or lack thereof) for advertising decision making are then explored. |
| Keywords: | Advertising, Uncertainty, Bundle, Time Spent,Equivalence JEL Classification: 022, 024, 511, 541 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2018_01&r=knm |
| By: | Christian A. L. Hilber, Olivier Schoeni |
| Abstract: | We investigate how political backlash against wealthy second home investors in high-amenity places – tourist areas and superstar cities – affects local residents. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment: the ‘Swiss Second Home Initiative’ (SHI), which banned the construction of new second homes in desirable tourist locations. Consistent with our model, we find that the SHI lowered transaction prices of primary homes in affected areas by around 12% but did not adversely affect prices of second homes. Our findings suggest that the negative effect on local economies dominated positive amenity-preservation effects. Constraining second home investments may reinforce rather than reduce wealth inequality. |
| Keywords: | Second homes; wealth inequality; land use regulation; house prices; homeownership; real estate investments |
| JEL: | D63 G12 R11 R21 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdv:wpaper:credresearchpaper11&r=knm |
| By: | Sokolova, Maria V. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We show that regional trade integration shifts the burden of the exchange rate adjustment towards the less integrated trading partners. Thus, they bear the cost of trade balance expansion, while competitive exchange rate moves vis-a-vis regional trade agreement (RTA) trading partners result in no expansion or deterioration of the overall trade balance. First, using the data on 138 countries that have been involved in regional trade integration through signing regional trade agreements (RTAs) since 1990, we show that upon a 10% depreciation towards non-RTA trading partners results in a 4.4% improvement of the aggregate trade balance. A similar competitive depreciation towards RTA trading partners has resulted in an average 3.7% deterioration of the aggregate trade balance. Second, we confirm that RTA participation can act as a good proxy for trade integration, and test the results with alternative measures of trade balance. Third, we use a simple model framework based on the current account adjustments to put the empirical findings into the theoretical frame. Altogether, we indicate that regional trade integration in the form of RTAs should be taken into account in questions related to the competitive exchange rate effects and trade balance adjustment. |
| Keywords: | trade balance; regional trade agreements; competitive depreciation; economic integration; terms-of-trade |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 F15 F40 F41 |
| Date: | 2017–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0684&r=knm |
| By: | Christian Masiak; Joern H. Block; Tobias Masiak; Matthias Neuenkirch; Katja N. Pielen |
| Abstract: | We analyse the triangle of Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) and cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum. So far, little is known about the relationship between ICOs, bitcoin and Ether prices. Hence, we employ both bitcoin and Ether prices but also the ICO amount to measure the future development of raised capital in ICOs. First, our results indicate that an ICO has an influence on the subsequent ICO. Second, not only bitcoin prices but also Ether prices play a considerable role with regard to the output of ICO campaigns. However, the effect of Ethereum is of shorter duration on ICO compared to Bitcoin on ICO. A further finding is that the cryptocurrency Bitcoin positively influences Ether. The implications of these findings for investors and entrepreneurial firms are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain, cryptocurrency, entrepreneurial finance, initial coin offering, ICO |
| JEL: | G11 E22 M13 O16 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:201804&r=knm |
| By: | Pablo Astorga Junquera |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper discusses and documents a new dataset of real wages for unskilled, semi-skilled, and relatively skilled labour in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela (LA-6) over the period 1900-2011. Three interrelated aspects are examined: the wage growth record associated with periods dominated by a particular development strategy; wage convergence across the LA-6; and changes in wage skill premiums and their links with fundamentals. The key findings are: i) the region’s unskilled wage rose by 147% in the period compared to rises of 243% in the average wage and 440% in income per worker (including both property and labour income); ii) there is a limited process of wage convergence across the LA-6; and weak persistence in the country hierarchy; iii) skill premiums tended to peak during the middle decades of the 20th century, coinciding with the acceleration of industrialisation and the timing of the demographic transition. Movements in the terms of trade are broadly associated with both fluctuations and trends in wage premiums, though the direction of the link is country and time specific. |
| Keywords: | wage levels and differentials, economic development, Latin America |
| JEL: | J31 O1 N36 |
| Date: | 2017–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_153&r=knm |
| By: | Michał Brzoza-Brzezina (Narodowy Bank Polski and Warsaw School of Economics); Jacek Kotłowski (Narodowy Bank Polski and Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper draws from two observations in the literature. First, that shocks to entrepreneur or household confidence matter for economic outcomes. Second, that it is hard to explain the extent of cyclical comovement between economies taking into account their trade links only. We check empirically to what extent confidence fluctuations matter for business cycles and in particular for their comovement between economies. We focus on a large (euro area) and a small, nearby economy (Poland). Our results show that confidence fluctuations account for approximately 40% of business cycle fluctuations in the euro area. Spillovers of confidence shocks are also large. Our main finding is that the their direct impact (i.e. not via trade but through the cross-border spread of news and business sentiment) accounts for almost 40% of business cycle fluctuations in Poland. |
| Keywords: | International spillovers, animal spirits, sentiments, business cycle |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F44 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:287&r=knm |
| By: | Christophe Blot (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | Lors de sa réunion du 13 juin, la Réserve fédérale a annoncé une augmentation du taux directeur de la politique monétaire, qui se situe désormais dans une fourchette de 1,75 à 2 %. Jérôme Powell, le nouveau Président de l’institution depuis février justifie cette décision par la situation favorable sur le marché du travail et par l’évolution récente de l’inflation, proche de 2 % lorsqu’on l’on ne tient pas compte des prix alimentaires et de l’énergie. Dans ces conditions, la banque centrale serait en passe de satisfaire ses objectifs, à savoir un emploi maximum et la stabilité des prix, ce qui justifie la poursuite de la normalisation de la politique monétaire américaine. [Premier paragraphe] |
| Keywords: | Politique monétaire; Inflation; Réserve fédérale; Taux directeur |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7ugnm7nm1e8q68khvv4on9eoiq&r=knm |
| By: | Dolata, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Anknüpfend an die Debatten um eine digitale Ökonomie und die Herausbildung eines Plattformkapitalismus werden in diesem Papier die Strukturen, Funktionsweisen und Reichweiten kommerzieller Such-, Networking-, Messaging-, Werbe-, Handels-, Vermittlungs- und Medienplattformen im Internet sowie das Zusammenspiel von Konzentrations- und Konkurrenzdynamiken auf den Märkten, die sie bedienen, analysiert. Ökonomisch betrachtet üben Plattformen im Internet zwar einen zum Teil radikalen Restrukturierungsdruck auf bestehende Wirtschaftssektoren aus, konstituieren aber keine grundlegend neuen Wirtschaftszweige, weisen ein sehr eingeschränktes Repertoire an Geschäftsmodellen auf und lassen sich auch nicht als grundlegend neuer Typ von Unternehmen fassen. Das Neue, das diese Plattformen auszeichnet und von ihren Vorgängern unterscheidet, besteht darin, dass sie deutlich über die Strukturierung rein ökonomischer Zusammenhänge hinaus- und weit in die Gesellschaft hineinreichen: Durch sie werden große Teile des privaten und öffentlichen Austauschs im Netz privatwirtschaftlich organisiert, kuratiert und kommodifiziert. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:stusoi:201804&r=knm |
| By: | Kea Tijdens |
| Abstract: | Collective bargaining is an important instrument in wage-setting processes, but lacks underpinning with empirical data. Little is known about what exactly is agreed upon in collective bargaining. Few countries maintain databases with coded collective agreements; and agreements are coded for different topics and levels of detail. Attempts to discuss bargaining results at EU level are hampered by the lack of systematic data-collection of agreements. Social partners perceive an increasing need for cross-country comparisons, i.e., because of growing importance of foreign direct investment in EU member states. Therefore, EU-level social partners in commerce, UNI Europa and EuroCommerce, have expressed their interest in a study of content of collective agreements negotiated by their members at national level. The first BARCOM report describes the coding and collection of collective bargaining agreements (CBA), using the coding form provided by the WageIndicator Foundation. The report compares the contents of 116 CBA’s for 9 coding topics. Supported by the European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, VS/2016/0106 |
| Date: | 2018–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:23&r=knm |
| By: | Stark, Oded |
| Abstract: | We study the relative risk aversion of an individual with particular social preferences: his wellbeing is influenced by his relative wealth, and by how concerned he is about having low relative wealth. Holding constant the individual's absolute wealth, we obtain two results. First, if the individual's level of concern about low relative wealth does not change, the individual becomes more risk averse when he rises in the wealth hierarchy. Second, if the individual's level of concern about low relative wealth intensifies when he rises in the wealth hierarchy and if, in precise sense, this intensification is strong enough, then the individual becomes less risk averse: the individual's desire to advance further in the wealth hierarchy is more important to him than possibly missing out on a better rank. |
| Keywords: | Relative risk aversion,Wealth rank,Concern about low relative wealth |
| JEL: | D31 D81 G11 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuewef:105&r=knm |
| By: | Nicolás Álvarez; Antonio Fernandois; Andrés Sagner |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate risk aversion contained in stock indices, exchange rates, and sovereign bond yields of a sample of developed and emerging countries. In particular, we use the methodology proposed by Bekaert et al. (2013) to decompose various measures of implicit variance into its realized variance and risk aversion components. Our results show a higher, generalized risk appetite during the last years, in a context of low financial volatility and high global political uncertainty. Lastly, we find that risk aversion tends to be higher during periods of financial fragility and recessions, and events of low risk aversion typically precede these episodes. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:818&r=knm |
| By: | Grigoriadis, Theocharis |
| Abstract: | Competing definitions of justice in Plato's Republic and Aristotle's Politics indicate the existence of two distinct economic systems with different normative priorities. The three-class society of the Platonic economy (guardians, auxiliaries, producers) gives rise to guardians who by virtue are expected to enforce output targets on producers directly or through auxiliaries. The three-class society of the Aristotelian economy (rich, middle, poor) facilitates the emergence of different ruling coalitions and compensates efficiency losses of vertical production processes with political gains derived from representative governance. In the Aristotelian economy, the middle class is better off than in the Platonic economy (auxiliaries), because a just society (polity) is achieved under its rule. I argue that the equilibrium solutions of the Platonic and Aristotelian systems provide the normative foundations for the distinction between plan and market. |
| Keywords: | Plato,Aristotle,central planning,market mechanism,political regimes,economic systems |
| JEL: | D63 P11 P14 P16 P21 P26 P52 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20189&r=knm |
| By: | Langlois, Hugues; Chaieb, Ines; Errunza, Vihang R. |
| Abstract: | We develop an asset pricing model to analyze the joint impact of liquidity costs and market segmentation. The freely traded securities command a premium for liquidity level and global market and liquidity risk premiums whereas securities that can only be held by a subset of investors additionally command a local market and liquidity risk premiums. Based on a new methodology, we find that the liquidity level premium dominates the liquidity risk premiums for our sample of 24 emerging markets. Whereas the local liquidity risk premium is empirically small, the global market liquidity risk premium dramatically increases during crises and market corrections. |
| Keywords: | International asset pricing; liquidity risk; transaction cost; emerging markets; market integration. |
| JEL: | F30 G12 G15 G20 G30 |
| Date: | 2017–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1254&r=knm |
| By: | Christophe Muller (Aix-Marseille Université); Pierre Pecher (Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | Ethnicity often occupies a core role in integrated social, economic, and political development processes, which have mostly been studied within specific countries. Across countries, social and economic development may be supported by political capabilities achieved by ethnic kin abroad, although there is little hard evidence on politico-economic interactions through ethnic networks. We fill this gap by providing the first robust empirical evidence of the substantial effects of political predominance of transborder ethnic kin on local economic development in Africa. This is achieved by specifying and estimating dynamic spatial models of geolocalised luminosity and matching these data with other geolocalised information on geographic, political, and ethnic characteristics. Spatial and ethnic network effects are separately identified and jointly analysed. Not only distinct spatial effects and transborder ethnic effects are exhibited, but also are their complex dynamics and spatial distribution features in terms of local development. The results draw attention to the relevance of a broader international perspective on policies affecting ethnic politics within countries. |
| Keywords: | Local Development, Ethnic Networks, Institutions |
| JEL: | D72 R11 O43 |
| Date: | 2018–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2018006&r=knm |
| By: | Nakamura, Hideki; Zeira, Joseph |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a model of technical change that combines two lines of research together. It is a task based model, in which automation turns labor tasks to mechanized ones, and there is also a continuous addition of new labor tasks, as in the expanding variety literature. We impose three simple restrictions on the model. The first is that all new tasks are adopted. The second is that all new automation innovations are adopted and the third is that the share of labor does not converge to zero in the long run. We show that these restrictions imply that unemployment due to automation is expected to converge to zero over time. |
| Keywords: | automation; growth; Labor Income Share; technical change; unemployment |
| JEL: | J64 O14 O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12974&r=knm |
| By: | Christine Rifflart (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | Avec un déficit à 3,1 % du PIB en 2017, l’Espagne a réduit son déficit de 1,4 point par rapport à 2016 et satisfait ses engagements vis-à-vis de la Commission européenne. Elle devrait franchir le seuil des 3 % en 2018 sans difficulté et serait donc le dernier pays à sortir de la Procédure pour déficit excessif (PDE), après la France en 2017. Après avoir été présenté à la Commission européenne le 30 avril, le budget 2018 a été voté au Congrès des députés espagnols le 23 mai dans un contexte politique extrêmement tendu qui a conduit le 1er juin à la destitution du président du gouvernement Mariano Rajoy (avec notamment le soutien des élus nationalistes basques du PNV qui avaient voté le budget 2018 quelques jours plus tôt). Il devrait être adopté au Sénat prochainement par une nouvelle majorité. L’orientation expansionniste du budget 2018, validée par le gouvernement du nouveau président socialiste Pedro Sanchez, ne satisfait pas la Commission qui juge l’ajustement des finances publiques insuffisant pour atteindre l’objectif de 2,2 % du PIB repris dans le Pacte de stabilité et de croissance 2018-2021. Selon les hypothèses du gouvernement précédent, non seulement le déficit reviendrait en dessous des 3 % mais la cible nominale serait respectée. [Premier paragraphe] |
| Keywords: | Conjoncture; Croissance; Déficit public; Dette publique; Zone euro |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/fqc9pq8ai8tpa78p31q085rr7&r=knm |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick); Kyburz, Stephan (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Can institutionalized transfers of resource rents be a source of civil conflict? Are cohesive institutions better in managing distributive conflicts? We study these questions exploiting exogenous variation in revenue disbursements to local governments together with new data on local democratic institutions in Nigeria. We make three contributions. First, we document the existence of a strong link between rents and conflict far away from the location of the actual resource. Second, we show that distributive conflict is highly organized involving political militias and concentrated in the extent to which local governments are non-cohesive. Third, we show that democratic practice in form having elected local governments significantly weakens the causal link between rents and political violence. We document that elections (vis-a-vis appointments), by producing more cohesive institutions, vastly limit the extent to which distributional conflict between groups breaks out following shocks to the available rents. Throughout, we confirm these findings using individual level survey data. |
| Keywords: | conflict ; ethnicity ; natural resources ;political economy ; commodity prices |
| JEL: | Q33 O13 N52 R11 L71 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1166&r=knm |
| By: | Tobias Mueller, Mujaheed Shaikh |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence on intra-household retirement externalities by assessing the causal e ect of spousal retirement on various health behaviors and health status across 19 European countries. We identify partner's and own retirement e ects by applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity design using retirement eligibility as exogenous instruments for spousal and own retirement status. We nd signi cant increases in the frequency and intensity of alcohol consumption combined with a signi cant decrease in moderate physical activities as a response to partner's retirement. In line with the existing literature, we nd that own retirement has signi cant positive e ects on engaging in moderate and vigorous physical activities but also leads to a signi cant increase in the frequency of alcohol intake. Overall, subjective health is negatively a ected by spousal retirement and positively by own retirement. |
| Keywords: | Retirement Externalities, Health behavior, Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design |
| JEL: | J26 I12 C26 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1709&r=knm |
| By: | Gandenberger, Carsten; Köhler, Jonathan Hugh; Doll, Claus |
| Abstract: | The paper asks how the modal shift from road to rail in the freight sector is sup-ported by institutional change. Following North (1990), institutions are understood as the "rules of the game" in the rail freight sector. Based on the literature on institutional change, four different perspectives and mechanisms can be dis-cerned: institutional design, collective action, institutional adaptation, and institu-tional diffusion. Each of these perspectives examines the situation in the German rail freight sector from a different angle. Based on this analysis, processes of institutional change and their potential impact on modal shift are discussed. Fol-lowing the railway reform, new domestic and foreign competitors of DB Cargo have entered the rail freight market with business models tailored to promising segments. At the same time, this competition has triggered a transformative or-ganisational change initiative at DB Cargo, which is currently in the process of implementation. Even though the success of this initiatives is highly uncertain, in total, the described changes are likely to result in a higher competitiveness of the sector and a stronger orientation to customer needs. Furthermore, the road freight sector has increasingly come under political pressure due to its rising GHG emissions and rail transport is increasingly seen as a viable alternative. In this respect, the recently published Master Plan for Rail Transport acts on many re-quirements of the railway sector and foresees a reduction of financial burdens, capacity extensions, and technological innovation. Overall, however, the analysis suggests that the current rate of institutional change may not be sufficient to cause the far-reaching changes necessary for a large scale transformation of the modal split of freight transport. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s092018&r=knm |
| By: | Christian Alcocer; Thomas D. Jeitschko; Thomas D. Jeitschko |
| Abstract: | We postulate a new behavioral bias in how people play mixed strategies by proposing the existence of simple players who lack strategic depth; in a sense, they are the simplest possible agents that do not directly contradict the economic principle of utility maximization. We deÖne them as those who, when indi§erent between choices, follow a simple rule-of-thumb and assign a predetermined probability to each. We show that if they play 2 2 games, an equilibrium generally fails to exist. However, under random matching within populations with some proportion of simple players, equilibrium is restored and is indistinguishable from Nash equilibria in games with unrestricted strategy choices, as long as the percentage of simple mixers is small enough. As such, players are unable to take advantage of the presence of simple mixers, and simple mixers do no worse than more sophisticated players. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral, Bounded Rationality, Mixed Equilibria |
| JEL: | C72 D03 D83 |
| Date: | 2018–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000416:016344&r=knm |
| By: | Besedeš, Tibor; Goldbach, Stefan; Nitsch, Volker |
| Abstract: | Sanctions restrict cross-border interactions and, therefore, not only put political and economic pressure on the target country, but they also adversely affect the sender country. This paper examines the effect of financial sanctions on the country imposing them. In particular, we analyze the business responses of German non-financial entities to the imposition of sanctions on 23 countries over the period from 1999 through 2014. Examining highly disaggregated, monthly data from the German balance of payments statistics, we find four main results. First, German financial activities with sanctioned countries are sizably reduced after the imposition of sanctions, with strong reductions in the scope of cross-border activities (i.e., the extensive margin with fewer firms and fewer asset categories) and less statistically robust results for total financial flows (sum of inflows and outflows) which is consistent with the concept of 'smart sanctions'. Second, firms doing business with sanctioned countries tend to be disproportionately large, making them largely immune to the reduction in business opportunities with individual partners. Third, firms affected by sanctions expand their activities with non-sanctioned countries, some of which display close trade ties to the sanctioned country. Fourth, we find no effect of sanctions on aggregate variables of firm performance such as employment or total sales. Overall, we conclude that the economic costs of financial sanctions to the sender country are limited. |
| Keywords: | sanction,restriction,cross-border transaction |
| JEL: | F20 F36 F51 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:092018&r=knm |
| By: | Höhle, Juliane; Bielefeldt, Judith; Dühnelt, Petra; König, Nils; Ziche, Daniel; Eickenscheidt, Nadine; Grüneberg, Erik; Hilbrig, Lutz; Wellbrock, Nicole |
| Abstract: | Die bundesweite Bodenzustandserhebung im Wald (BZE) ist ein zentrales Element des forstlichen Umweltmonitorings. Sie erfasst Zustand und Veränderungen von Waldböden auf einem bundesweiten Stichprobennetz. Die Geschichte der BZE reicht mehr als 30 Jahre zurück. Erstmalig wurde die BZE im Zeitraum zwischen 1987 und 1993 und wiederholt zwischen 2006 und 2008 durchgeführt. Die BZE ist ein Gemeinschaftsprojekt des Bundes und der Bundesländer. Die Bundesländer erheben die Daten, führen die Laboranalysen durch und werten die Daten für Ihr Gebiet aus. Der Bund koordiniert das Projekt, speichert die Daten zentral in der BZE-Bundesdatenbank und ist für die bundesweite Auswertung zuständig. Um standardisierte und reproduzierbare Werte zu erheben, wurden die Methoden bundesweit abgestimmt und in den Arbeitsanleitungen zur BZE beschrieben. Methodische Abweichungen von diesen Standardmethoden sind historisch bedingt oder länderspezifischen Fragestellungen und Interessen geschuldet. Die Dokumentation aller BZE-Methoden erfordert das Zusammenführung verschiedenster Quellen (Waldbodenzustandsberichte der Bundesländer, Protokolle der Bund-Länder-Sitzungen, Angaben aus der Bundesdatenbank, Methodencode, dem Handbuch der forstlichen Analytik, Vorstudien und Berichten zum Qualitätsmanagement). Um die Daten der BZE-Inventuren vergleichend auswerten zu können, war die Integration von BZE I-Daten in die BZE-Bundesdatenbank nötig. Dazu wurden verschiedenste Daten-Harmonisierungsschritte vollzogen wie z.B. die Anpassung der Verschlüsselung an aktuelle Vorgaben und die Beurteilung der Vergleichbarkeit bei Methodenwechseln. Die vorliegende Publikation dient in erster Linie dazu all diese Datentransferschritte transparent darzustellen. Zentrales Ziel ist es jeden Primärparameter, d.h. jeden erhobenen oder analytisch bestimmten Parameter methodisch und technisch zu beschreiben. Der Weg von der Erhebung bzw. Analyse bis zur Speicherung und Verarbeitung in der BZE-Bundesdatenbank wird aufgezeigt. |
| Keywords: | Boden,Monitoring,Methoden,Harmonisierung,Bodenzustandserhebung,Wald,soil,monitoring,methods,harmonization,National Forest Soil Inventory,forest |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:97&r=knm |
| By: | Fritz, Oliver; Streicher, Gerhard; Unterlass, Fabian |
| Abstract: | Die heimische und internationale Nachfrage nach in Österreich produzierten Sachgütern trägt mit 21,8% der gesamten Bruttowertschöpfung wesentlich zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Leistung bei, auch wenn sich durch die zunehmende Bedeutung internationaler Produktionsnetzwerke die Wertschöpfungsintensität der Produktion stetig verringert. Ein relativ stabiler Anteil dieser Wertschöpfung entfällt auf die österreichische Sachgüterproduktion selbst, der direkt und indirekte Anteil von Dienstleistungen an der Herstellung dieser Güter nimmt entgegen den Erwartungen nicht zu. Die F&E-Intensität der Wirtschaftssektoren ist hingegen deutlich gestiegen, auch wenn sie stark zwischen den Sektoren variiert. Über Vorleistungsbeziehungen konsumieren auch die wenig F&E-intensiven Sektoren indirekt F&ELeistungen anderer, forschungsintensiverer Sektoren und sind damit wichtige "Auftraggeber" unternehmerischer Forschungsaktivitäten. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2018:i:040&r=knm |
| By: | Mazzuchi, Graciela.; González, Eloísa. |
| Abstract: | A los efectos expositivos en este trabajo en primer lugar se realiza una breve caracterización del sector textil vestimenta en Uruguay y en segundo lugar se explica el funcionamiento de la negociación en Uruguay en el sector textil vestimenta, las instituciones en que se apoya, la dinámica del proceso y los resultados generales obtenidos. Una vez determinado el contexto en el punto tres se analiza la negociación del sector textil vestimenta en los últimos años, en el cuatro los impactos en el salario real del sector y en el cinco se resumen las opiniones de los actores en relación a este proceso. Por último, se extraen algunas conclusiones y se realizan algunas sugerencias. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994986592602676&r=knm |
| By: | Adena, Maja; Huck, Steffen |
| Abstract: | We study intertemporal crowding between two fundraising campaigns for the same charitable organization by manipulating donors’ beliefs about the likelihood of future campaigns in two subsequent field experiments. Theory predicts that the effect of such belief manipulations depends on whether multiple donations are perceived as substitutes or complements. In line with intuition, the data from our experiment in the first year suggests that multiple donations are substitutes and, consequently, that rendering future campaigns more likely causes crowding out. In the second year, however, we find that our belief manipulations no longer have an effect. When receiving a second fundraising call, donors learn that also future repetitions may occur. In contrast with theoretical predictions for substitutes, we find that year-2 donations are increasing in year-1 donations, that is, higher do-nations in an earlier campaign crowd in future donations. |
| Keywords: | Charitable giving,field experiments,intertemporal crowding |
| JEL: | C93 D64 D12 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbeoc:spii2017305r&r=knm |
| By: | Wanderley, Fernanda (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana) |
| Abstract: | Al inicio del siglo XXI, Bolivia presentó mejoras en los indicadores de pobreza y desigualdad monetaria siguiendo la tendencia de América Latina. El análisis de la evolución del Índice de Necesidades Básicas Insatisfechas (NBI) también muestra una tendencia positiva. Sin embargo, todavía persisten diferencias significativas por área geográfica - urbana y rural- y entre los departamentos. El período entre 2004 y 2014 se caracterizó por una bonanza económica excepcional debido, principalmente, al incremento de la demanda y los precios internacionales de las materias primas. A partir de 2014, la caída del precio de estaño, hidrocarburos y otras materias primas marcó la desaceleración del ciclo expansivo de la economía internacional y de los precios de las materias primas y el inicio de un ciclo de retracción económica en la región. Considerando la histórica dependencia de la economía regional a los booms y colapsos de los precios de los recursos naturales y, consecuentemente, de los negativos efectos económicos y sociales provocados por una marcada volatilidad de nuestros mercados, las siguientes interrogantes se imponen: ¿Cuáles fueron los factores más importantes para la mejora de los indicadores sociales en el periodo de boom económico? y ¿qué políticas se requieren para sostener la mejora de los indicadores sociales y seguir ampliando el bienestar de la población boliviana? El objetivo del documento es presentar los avances sociales y los problemas persistentes para lograr el bienestar social de todos y todas las bolivianas con base en los últimos indicadores oficiales disponibles y en estudios secundarios, y las explicaciones sobre los factores que incidieron en las mejoras sociales. El documento ofrece una síntesis de los principales desafíos que todavía enfrenta el país. |
| Keywords: | Pobreza; Desigualdad; Sistema de protección social; empleo; ingresos y salarios; políticas sociales; |
| JEL: | I24 I31 I32 I38 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2018–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:iisecd:2018_002&r=knm |
| By: | Michal Burzynski; Frédéric Docquier; Hillel Rapoport |
| Abstract: | We investigate the welfare implications of two pre-crisis immigration waves (1991–2000 and 2001–2010) and of the post-crisis wave (2011–2015) for OECD native citizens. To do so, we develop a general equilibrium model that accounts for the main channels of transmission of immigration shocks – the employment and wage effects, the fiscal effect, and the market size effect – and for the interactions between them. We parameterize our model for 20 selected OECD member states. We find that the three waves induce positive effects on the real income of natives, however the size of these gains varies considerably across countries and across skill groups. In relative terms, the post-crisis wave induces smaller welfare gains compared to the previous ones. This is due to the changing origin mix of immigrants, which translates into lower levels of human capital and smaller fiscal gains. However, differences across cohorts explain a tiny fraction of the highly persistent, cross-country heterogeneity in the economic benefits from immigration. |
| Keywords: | Immigration;Welfare;Crisis;Inequality;General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | C68 F22 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-09&r=knm |
| By: | Malesios, C; Demiris, N; Kalogeropoulos, K; Ntzoufras, I |
| Abstract: | Epidemic data often possess certain characteristics, such as the presence of many zeros, the spatial nature of the disease spread mechanism, environmental noise, serial correlation and dependence on time varying factors. This paper addresses these issues via suitable Bayesian modelling. In doing so we utilise a general class of stochastic regression models appropriate for spatio-temporal count data with an excess number of zeros. The developed regression framework does incorporate serial correlation and time varying covariates through an Ornstein Uhlenbeck process formulation. In addition, we explore the effect of different priors, including default options and variations of mixtures of g-priors. The effect of different distance kernels for the epidemic model component is investigated. We proceed by developing branching process-based methods for testing scenarios for disease control, thus linking traditional epidemiological models with stochastic epidemic processes, useful in policy-focused decision making. The approach is illustrated with an application to a sheep pox dataset from the Evros region, Greece. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian modelling; Bayesian variable selection; branching process; epidemic extinction; g-prior; spatial kernel; disease control |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2017–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:77939&r=knm |
| By: | Miguel Vazquez; Matteo di Castelnuovo |
| Abstract: | We analyze the changes in the regulation of electricity systems required to adapt to the presence of energy storage. To that end, we begin by identifying different types of services provided by storage. As services have different economic properties, the economic mechanisms required to organize them will be different as well. There are two relevant “arenas” for storage services: i) buy and sell energy in different periods (including energy related to ancillary services); and ii) avoid the need to transport energy from one point to another, i.e. the need to use transmission and/or distribution networks. Consequently, this involves two kinds of regulatory challenges, because storage compete with different types of services. The first regulatory challenge is related to wholesale market design, because flexibility services can be sold in “competitive” wholesale markets (energy, ancillary services, etc.). The second regulatory challenge has to do with the regulation of energy networks, because storage services may avoid the use of “regulated” networks. Consequently, network rules should allow them to compete in a technologically neutral manner. |
| Keywords: | Energy Storage Systems; Market Design; Network Regulation |
| JEL: | D23 D82 L51 L94 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcu:iefewp:iefewp106&r=knm |
| By: | Aikman, David (Bank of England); Giese, Julia (Bank of England); Kapadia, Sujit (European Central Bank); McLeay, Michael (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores monetary-macroprudential policy interactions in a simple, calibrated New Keynesian model incorporating the possibility of a credit boom precipitating a financial crisis and a loss function reflecting financial stability considerations. Deploying the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) improves outcomes significantly relative to when interest rates are the only instrument. The instruments are typically substitutes, with monetary policy loosening when the CCyB tightens. We also examine when the instruments are complements and assess how different shocks, the effective lower bound for monetary policy, market-based finance and a risk-taking channel of monetary policy affect our results. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential; monetary policy; financial stability; capital buffer; financial crises; credit boom |
| JEL: | E52 E58 G01 G28 |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0734&r=knm |
| By: | Q. Farooq Akram (Norges Bank); Mats B. Fevolden (Norges Bank); Lyndsie H. Smith (Norges Bank) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the reliability of the `Furfine filter' often used to identify interbank loans and interest rates from interbank payments settled at central banks. To this end, we have been granted access to records of all unsecured overnight interbank loans during a month from the banks that participated in Norges Bank’s real-time gross settlement system. The filter applied was able to identify each of these loans and correctly derive the associated interest rates. The filter's reliability is also supported by additional evidence based on the Norwegian Overnight Weighted Average (NOWA) interest rates beyond the survey month. Sensitivity analyses suggest the share of false or overlooked loans may remain small if the filter design largely incorporates interbank market conventions regarding loan size requests and interests rate quotes. |
| Keywords: | Overnight interbank market, Furfine-algorithm, RTGS |
| JEL: | C63 G21 E43 E58 |
| Date: | 2018–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bno:worpap:2018_08&r=knm |
| By: | Michel Forsé (Centre Maurice Halbwachs); Alexandra Frénod (CNRS); Caroline Guibet Lafaye (CNRS CMH); Maxime Parodi (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | Les sondages, et notamment celui qui est étudié dans cet article, se succèdent pour montrer que les Français sont plus tolérants à l'égard des inégalités de patrimoine que vis-à-vis d'autres types d'inégalités, même lorsqu'elles sont aussi à caractère économique. Une enquête par entretiens semi-directifs auprès de trois générations de 35 lignées familiales (n = 105) a permis de mettre à jour trois logiques propres venant structurer les opinions sur la transmission patrimoniale : celle du libre agent, celle de l'égalité citoyenne et celle que l'on peut qualifier de familialiste. Quelle que soit cette logique, beaucoup d'interviewés soulignent aussi l'importance de la transmission culturelle et/ou affective. Il faut d'ailleurs noter que les membres d'une même lignée ont tendance à partager des opinions assez proches. Pour les niveaux plutôt faibles de patrimoine auxquels ils songent spontanément, ils manifestent une très forte aversion face à l'idée de taxer l'héritage, surtout s'il s'agit de la maison familiale. Pour des niveaux beaucoup plus élevés, une taxation importante n'est cette fois guère contestée. |
| Keywords: | inégalités; patrimoine; héritage; famille |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/67v5f41r0s8tmrcnuj225dpb7t&r=knm |
| By: | Guy Parmentier (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Séverine Leloarne-Lemaire (GEM - Grenoble Ecole de Management - Grenoble École de Management (GEM), IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Mustapha Belkhouja (GEM - Grenoble Ecole de Management - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)) |
| Abstract: | This paper questions the impact of team gender composition on idea generation and idea evaluation? Based on econometric analyses of evaluations of 100 product ideas proposed by 463 students, it shows that ideas supported by teams mostly composed of either males or females are as creative as ideas supported by mixed teams when they are evaluated by experts. When these ideas are evaluated by peers, the ideas supported by mixed teams are perceived as being less creative than ideas supported by teams that are predominantly composed of either males or females. |
| Abstract: | Este artículo examina la influencia que ejerce la composición de equipos creativos, en terminus de género, en la generación y evaluación de ideas. Un análisis econométrico realizado sobre la evaluación de 100 ideas de nuevos productos desarrolladas por 463 estudiantes muestra que las ideas propuestas por equipos predominantemente compuestos de hombres o mujeres son tan creativas como las ideas propuestas por equipos mixtos cuando éstas son evaluadas por expertos. Cuando se evalúan por parejas, las ideas propuestas por los equipos mixtos son percibidas como menos creativas que las ideas propuestas por equipos compuestos predominantemente por hombres o mujeres. |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine l’impact de la composition des équipes créatives, en terme de genre, sur la génération et l’évaluation des idées. Une analyse économétrique réalisée sur l’évaluation de 100 idées de produits nouveaux proposées par 463 étudiants montre que les idées proposées par des équipes majoritairement composées de garçons ou de filles sont aussi créatives que les équipes mixtes quand elles sont évaluées par des experts. Quand elles sont évaluées par des paires, les idées proposées par des équipes mixtes sont perçues comme moins créatives que les idées proposées par des équipes majoritairement composées de garçons ou de filles. |
| Keywords: | Gender mixity,gender effects,team diversity,creative results,convergence phase of creativity,Diversidad de género,diversidad dentro del equipo,resultados creativos,fase creativa de convergencia,Mixité de genre,diversité au sein,résultats créatifs,phase créative de convergence |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01700895&r=knm |
| By: | McLeay, Michael; Tenreyro, Silvana |
| Abstract: | This paper explains why inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap. In other words, it explains why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve. We show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold – on the contrary, our conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. The reason is simple: if monetary policy is set with the goal of minimising welfare losses (measured as the sum of deviations of inflation from its target and output from its potential), subject to a Phillips curve, a central bank will seek to increase inflation when output is below potential. This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively sloped) Phillips curve. |
| Keywords: | identification; Inflation targeting; Phillips curve |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12981&r=knm |
| By: | Marc Fleurbaey |
| Abstract: | The UN Resolution heralding the Sustainable Development Goals pledges to leave no one behind, and moreover “to reach the furthest behind first”. This priority echoes the priority to the worst-off that is being discussed in philosophy, economics and related disciplines, but also the pleas of many actors who represent or fight for the most disadvantaged populations. This paper argues that serious theories do support such a priority and that the best policies implementing this priority do not necessarily involve the most intuitive anti-poverty targeted measures. |
| JEL: | D63 I38 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:cpaper:042&r=knm |
| By: | Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Shimizu, Sayoko (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We assess the effects of the most recent monetary policy behavior of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), in particular, zero interest rate policy and negative interest rate policy, and the Japanese tax policy on income inequality during the first quarter (Q1) of 2002 to Q3 2017. The vector error correction model developed in this research shows that increase in money stock through quantitative easing and the quantitative and qualitative easing policies of the BOJ significantly increases income inequality. On the contrary, Japanese tax policy was effective in reducing income inequality. Variance decomposition results show that after 10 periods almost 87.15% of the forecast error variance of the inequality is accounted for by its own innovations and 3.76% of the forecast error variance can be explained by exogenous shocks to monetary policy shock—the money stock. The short-term interest rate also accounts for the increase in inequality by 0.47%. On the other hand, the total tax and real gross domestic product contributed in reducing the inequality measure, respectively, by 6.65% and 1.96% after 10 periods. |
| Keywords: | income inequality; monetary policy; tax policy; Japanese economy |
| JEL: | D63 E52 H24 |
| Date: | 2018–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0837&r=knm |
| By: | Yingli Wang; Xiaoguang Yang |
| Abstract: | Considered an important macroeconomic indicator, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Manufacturing generally assumes that PMI announcements will produce an impact on stock markets. International experience suggests that stock markets react to negative PMI news. In this research, we empirically investigate the stock market reaction towards PMI in China. The asymmetric effects of PMI announcements on the stock market are observed: no market reaction is generated towards negative PMI announcements, while a positive reaction is generally generated for positive PMI news. We further find that the positive reaction towards the positive PMI news occurs 1 day before the announcement and lasts for nearly 3 days, and the positive reaction is observed in the context of expanding economic conditions. By contrast, the negative reaction towards negative PMI news is prevalent during downward economic conditions for stocks with low market value, low institutional shareholding ratios or high price earnings. Our study implies that China's stock market favors risk to a certain extent given the vast number of individual investors in the country, and there may exist information leakage in the market. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.04347&r=knm |
| By: | Smith, Jonathan (Bank of England); Ferrara, Gerardo (Bank of England); Rodriguez, Francesc (Cass Business School) |
| Abstract: | As part of the post-crisis regulatory reform, many interest-rate derivative transactions are required to be centrally cleared. Nevertheless, the treatment of this type of transaction under the leverage ratio (LR) requirement does not allow for the use of initial margin to reduce the exposure, thereby increasing capital costs. As a result, LR affected clearing member banks may be more reluctant to provide central clearing services to clients given this additional cost. This in turn can prevent some real economy firms from hedging their risks. We analyse whether this is the case by exploiting detailed confidential transaction and portfolio level data as well as the introduction and posterior tightening of the LR in the UK in a diff-in-diff framework. Our results suggest that the LR had a disincentivising effect on client clearing, both in terms of daily transactions as well as the number of clients, but this impact seems to be driven by a reduced willingness to take on new clients. |
| Keywords: | Financial regulation; leverage ratio; interest rate derivatives; clearing; banking |
| JEL: | G01 G18 G20 G28 |
| Date: | 2018–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0735&r=knm |
| By: | Sukjin Han |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in each period, had a particular treatment sequence been assigned. The identification of this quantity allows us to identify the average treatment effects (ATE's) and the ATE's on transitions, as well as the optimal treatment regimes, namely, the regimes that maximize the (weighted) sum of the average potential outcomes, possibly less the cost of the treatments. The main contribution of this paper is to relax the sequential randomization assumption widely used in the biostatistics literature by introducing a flexible choice-theoretic framework for a sequence of endogenous treatments. We show that the parameters of interest are identified under each period's two-way exclusion restriction, i.e., with instruments excluded from the outcome-determining process and other exogenous variables excluded from the treatment-selection process. We also consider partial identification in the case where the latter variables are not available. Lastly, we extend our results to a setting where treatments do not appear in every period. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1805.09397&r=knm |
| By: | Tibor Besedeš; Stefan Goldbach; Volker Nitsch |
| Abstract: | Sanctions restrict cross-border interactions and, therefore, not only put political and economic pressure on the target country, but they also adversely affect the sender country. This paper examines the effect of financial sanctions on the country imposing them. In particular, we analyze the business responses of German non-financial entities to the imposition of sanctions on 23 countries over the period from 1999 through 2014. Examining highly disaggregated, monthly data from the German balance of payments statistics, we find four main results. First, German financial activities with sanctioned countries are sizably reduced after the imposition of sanctions, with strong reductions in the scope of cross-border activities (i.e., the extensive margin) and less robust results for total financial flows which is consistent with the concept of ‘smart sanctions’. Second, firms doing business with sanctioned countries tend to be disproportionately large, making them largely immune to the reduction in business opportunities with selected partners. Third, firms affected by sanctions expand their activities with non-sanctioned countries, some of which display close trade ties to the sanctioned country. Fourth, we find no effect of sanctions on broader measures of firm performance such as employment or total sales. Overall, we conclude that the economic costs of financial sanctions to the sender country are limited. |
| Keywords: | sanction, restriction, cross-border transaction |
| JEL: | F20 F36 F51 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7069&r=knm |
| By: | Giudici, Paolo (Asian Development Bank Institute); Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Spelta, Alessandro (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We present a new methodology, based on tensor decomposition, to map dynamic trade networks and assess their strength in spreading economic fluctuations at different periods of time in Asia. Using monthly merchandise import and export data across 33 Asian economies, together with the United Sates, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, we detect the modularity structure of the evolving network and we identify communities and central nodes inside each of them. Our findings show that data are well represented by two communities, in which the People's Republic of China and Japan play the major role. We then analyze the synchronization between GDP growth and trade, and apply our model to the prediction of economic fluctuations. Our findings show that the model leads to an increase in predictive accuracy, as higher order interactions between countries are taken into account. |
| Keywords: | Asia; Trade Network; Tensor decomposition; Community detection |
| JEL: | C58 C63 G01 |
| Date: | 2018–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0832&r=knm |
| By: | González-Val, Rafael; Marcén, Miriam |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between a job loss and marital breakdown using Spanish panel data. The Great Recession in Spain has had severe consequences, representing an interesting framework to analyse the relationship between job loss and marital breakdown. Not only do we study whether being unemployed is associated with marital breakdown but, also, we examine the effect of job losses. In contrast with other papers examining this issue for other countries, results reveal that in Spain it is the working status of women which plays a role in the marital break-up decision. Results suggest that the probability of marital breakdown decreases when women are non-working. The same is observed when we consider a change in the working status of women from employed to unemployed and from employed to inactive. For men, only the change from employed to inactive appears to be negatively related to the probability of marital breakdown. |
| Keywords: | Marital breakdown,unemployment,job loss,inactivity |
| JEL: | J12 J20 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:220&r=knm |
| By: | Francisca Silva (CeBER and Faculty of Economics of the University of Coimbra); Marta Simões (CeBER and Faculty of Economics of the University of Coimbra); João Sousa Andrade (CeBER and Faculty of Economics of the University of Coimbra) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relationship between health human capital and economic growth for a maximum sample of 92 countries over the period 1980-2010 applying the methodology proposed by Canay (2011) for regression by quantiles (Koenker 1978; 2004; 2012a,b) in a panel framework. This approach allows for the identification of different impacts of the explanatory variables across the growth rate distribution. According to Mello & Perelli (2003), quantile regression allows to capture countries’ heterogeneity and assess how policy variables affect different countries according to their position on the conditional growth distribution. Quantile regression analysis allows us to identify those growth determinants that do not have the expected relationship with growth and hence determine the policy implications specifically for under-performing versus over achieving countries in terms of output growth. Our findings indicate that better health is positively and robustly related to growth at all quantiles, but the quantitative importance of the respective coefficients differs across quantiles in some cases, with the sign of the relationship greater for countries that recorded lower growth rates. These results apply to both positive (life expectancy, consumption of calories per person per day) and negative (infant mortality rate, prevalence of undernourishment in populations) health status indicators. Given the predominantly public nature of health funding, cuts in health expenditures should thus be carefully balanced even in times of public finances sustainability problems, particularly in times of growth slowdowns, since a decrease in the stock of health human capital can be particularly harmful for growth for under achievers. |
| Keywords: | health; human capital; economic growth; quantile regression. |
| JEL: | C31 C33 I15 O15 O47 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:papers:2018-01&r=knm |
| By: | Iman van Lelyveld; Sinziana Kroon |
| Abstract: | We investigate how counterparty credit risk influences the prices of over-the-counter CDS contracts using confidential transaction level data for practically all Dutch trades. We confirm our prior of a significant negative relationship between the credit worthiness of the CDS seller and the price of the CDS contract. We find that an increase of 100 basis points in the credit spread of the seller, decreases the price of the CDS contract by 7.2 basis points. Also, the larger the size of the CDS contract the lower the price of the CDS contract. Finally, we find that regulatory exemptions have a statistically significant but economically negligible impact on CDS pricing: Transactions exempted from banking capital requirements for Credit Valuation Adjustment risk - mostly banks transacting with non-financial institutions, sovereigns and pension funds - trade 0.14 basis points lower, all else equal. |
| Keywords: | OTC market; counterparty credit risk; credit default swap |
| JEL: | G10 G12 G14 G20 G23 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:599&r=knm |
| By: | Schlesewsky, Lisa; Winter, Simon |
| Abstract: | The increase in network costs within the German electricity grid, due to a rising share of renewable energy generation, has led to higher network charges in recent years. We use socioeconomic data in order to investigate distributional effects within the period 2010-2016, and employ three different inequality metrics - the Gini coefficient, the Theil index and the Atkinson index - all of which unambiguously indicate regressive effects of network charges. The three metrics show an increase of economic inequality of at least 0.6 % when accounting for network charges. This finding is due to 1. the relative inferiority of electricity, 2. the regressive impact of a fixed component of network charges, 3. considerable regional disparities, and 4. the higher prevalence of prosumers within high-income households. |
| Keywords: | network charges,renewable energies,economic inequality |
| JEL: | D63 Q40 Q42 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:42018&r=knm |
| By: | Hans-Werner Sinn |
| Abstract: | While the ECB helped mitigate the euro crisis in the aftermath of Lehman, it has stretched its monetary mandate and moved into fiscal territory. This text describes and summarizes the crucial role played by the ECB in the intervention spiral resulting from its bid to manage the crisis. It also outlines ongoing competitiveness problems in southern Europe, discusses the so-called austerity policy of the Troika, comments on QE and presents two alternative paths for the future development of Europe. |
| JEL: | E50 E58 G01 H63 H81 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24613&r=knm |
| By: | Mavisakalyan, Astghik; Tarverdi, Yashar |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether female political representation in national parliaments influences climate change policy outcomes. Based on data from a large sample of countries, we demonstrate that female representation leads countries to adopt more stringent climate change policies. We exploit a combination of full and partial identification approaches to suggest that this relationship is likely to be causal. Moreover, we show that through its effect on the stringency of climate change policies, the representation of females in parliament results in lower carbon dioxide emissions. Female political representation may be an underutilized tool for addressing climate change. |
| Keywords: | gender,political representation,climate change,environmental policy |
| JEL: | D70 J16 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:221&r=knm |
| By: | Eswaran, Mukesh |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether for-profit firms can alleviate extreme poverty at the "base of the pyramid" of the income distribution in poor countries. The scope for market penetration is enhanced when multinationals capable of performing R&D for appropriate technologies team up with local enterprises to provide marketing and distribution. For the (severely credit-constrained) potential customers, the willingness to pay for a product is divorced from the latter’s productivity-enhancing aspects. We show that partnerships with non-governmental organizations (NGOs) dedicated to poverty alleviation are more effective than even mergers with local for-profit firms. NGOs that elicit the trust of the target clientele determine their marketing and distribution effort by a product’s potential to reduce poverty and hence by its productivity-enhancing capabilities. This circumvents the credit market constraints of the buyers and, by increasing the market size, provides multinationals with the incentive to innovate for appropriate technologies. Furthermore, since pecuniary externalities increase the profitability of sequential technologies, partnerships with NGOs-by dint of their greater potential for common agency- alleviate extreme poverty by facilitating a Big Push at the base of the pyramid more effectively than do mergers with local for-profit firms. Corporate social responsibility forms no part of the argument offered here. |
| Keywords: | extreme poverty, productivity-enhancing technologies, Big Push, multinationals, NGOs |
| JEL: | I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubc:pmicro:tina_marandola-2018-6&r=knm |
| By: | Carolina Castagnetti (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia); Maria Letizia Giorgetti (Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milano) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the gender wage gaps across the wage distribution in both the private and public sectors in Italy for the years 2005-2010. We use quantile regression methods to estimate and decompose the gender wage gap at different points of the wage distribution. We find in both sectors a consistent level of gender wage gap (lower in the public sector) and an increasing path along the wage distribution. Counterfactual decomposition analysis supports the idea of a sticky floor mechanism in action in the private sector and of a glass ceiling in the public sector. In addition to standard decomposition techniques we propose a two step procedure that relies on a novel approach to estimating fixed effects quantile regressions. Its main advantage is that it allows the estimation of the marginal effect of the employment sector on wages at different points of the distribution, while accounting for both observable and time-invariant unobservable factors. When we control for employees’ observed and unobservable individual characteristics, the main finding is that the gender wage gap substantially decreases in both sectors. A second evidence is that the sticky floor effect in the private sector vanishes, while the glass ceiling effect in the public sector remains. The evidence from the longitudinal analysis amplifies the differences of the wage-setting mechanisms in the two sectors. |
| Keywords: | Gender wage gap, quantile regression for panel, public-private wage differential |
| JEL: | J3 J45 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0162&r=knm |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Edward Bbaale; Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Oliver Reiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Graph of the month Gross domestic product, real growth in %, average 2012-2016 (p. 1) Opinion corner Do trade imbalances affect economic growth? (by Leon Podkaminer, pp. 2-4) Trade effects of EU integration arrangements in the Western Balkan countries (by Oliver Reiter, pp. 5-8) Corruption and firm-level productivity greasing or sanding effect? (by Edward Bbaale, pp. 9-15) Kyrgyzstan suffering from ‘Dutch disease’? (by Vasily Astrov, pp. 16-21) Recommended reading (p. 22) New wiiw Handbook of Statistics (p. 23) Statistical Annex Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe (pp. 24-45) |
| Keywords: | economic growth, international trade, trade imbalances, balance-of-payments crises, EU accession, Stabilisation and Association Agreements, trade liberalisation, productivity, corruption, red tape, labour migration and remittances, external competitiveness |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2017-12&r=knm |
| By: | Chen, Yongmin; Li, Jianpei; Zhang, Jin |
| Abstract: | We study the design of efficient liability in expert markets. An expert may misbehave in two ways: prescribing the "wrong" treatment for a consumer's problem, or failing to exert proper effort to diagnose the problem. We show that under a range of liabilities, the expert will choose the efficient treatment based on his information if the price margins for alternative treatments are close enough. Moreover, a well-designed liability rule motivates the expert to also exert diagnosis effort efficiently. The efficient liability is facilitated by certain restriction on equilibrium prices; unfettered competition between experts, while maximizing consumer surplus, may undermine efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Credence goods, experts, liability, diagnosis effort, undertreatment, overtreatment |
| JEL: | D82 I18 K13 L23 |
| Date: | 2018–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87317&r=knm |
| By: | De Simone, Lisa (Stanford University); Mills, Lillian F. (University of Texas); Stomberg, Bridget (Indiana University) |
| Abstract: | We use confidential Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data on the magnitude of U.S.-foreign intercompany transactions to develop a financial statement-based measure of the likelihood that U.S. multinational entities (MNEs) make net intercompany payments out of the U.S. Descriptive analysis shows that although sample firms report net inbound intercompany payments on average, high tech firms and small firms report average net outbound payments. The determinants of net outbound payments vary with size, but the likelihood that a firm reports net outbound payments is positively related to high tech operations and income tax incentives across all firms. Supplemental analyses show that firms with net outbound payments have historically not been more likely to be audited or assessed additional taxes upon IRS audit. Our study provides a validated measure based on publicly available data that researchers, investors, and policymakers can use to infer a substantial form of income shifting. |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3447&r=knm |
| By: | Fischer, Manfred M.; Nijkamp, Peter |
| Abstract: | This chapter offers a review on modern entrepreneurship analysis, against the background of regional development. Regions with an entrepreneurial culture tend to be forerunners in a competitive economic process. After a conceptual discussion on the importance and the measurement of entrepreneurship, the contribution discusses critical success factors and key determinants of entrepreneurship. Next, much focus is laid on the geography of entrepreneurship as well as on industrial agglomeration, while also due attention is paid to the relevance of networks for modern entrepreneurship. The chapter concludes with some retrospective and prospective remarks. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, definition and measurement issues, spatial aspects of entrepreneurship, regions with an entrepreneurial culture, cluster agglomeration factors, entrepreneurship and networks |
| Date: | 2018–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus046:6362&r=knm |
| By: | Aubrey D. Tabuga |
| Abstract: | Analyzing future migration intentions is essential to understanding how migration perpetuates. International migration is such a complex and nuanced phenomenon that those who desire to participate in it go through an elaborate process of intention-formation, planning, and decisionmaking. And yet the literature on migration intentions rarely view it in such manner. Instead, many studies treat migration decisionmaking as a binary stay-or-leave variable. Moreover, the lens more commonly implemented is economic; there is less focus on the social dimensions of migration decisions. This analysis seeks to explain the influence of social networks on the decisiveness to migrate while controlling for the effects of economic forces, subjective perceptions on well-being, and demographic factors. Using information gathered from individuals residing within a village with high migration incidence, this study found that differentiating migrant networks into the degree of association or strength of ties is crucial because different networks have different effects. Furthermore, considering the individuals’ current level in the migration decisionmaking process is also deemed crucial in analyzing the factors that influence the decision. For instance, migrant networks particularly the closest of kin are important in the advanced phase of concrete migration planning, and not in the initial stage. Know more about the results of the study in this paper. |
| Keywords: | migration, , migration intention, migration decisionmaking, Philippine migration, generalized ordered logit, tie strength, social networks |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2018-06&r=knm |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; Jean-Pascal Bassino; Kyoji Fukao; Bishnupriya Gupta; Masanori Takashima |
| Abstract: | Abstract Japanese GDP per capita grew at an annual rate of 0.08 per cent between 730 and 1874, but the growth was episodic, with the increase in per capita income concentrated in twoperiods, 1450-1600 and after 1721, interspersed with periods of stable per capita income. There is a similarity here with the growth pattern of Britain. The first countries to achieve modern economic growth at opposite ends of Eurasia thus shared the experience of an early end to growth reversals. However, Japan started at a lower level than Britain and grew more slowly until the Meiji Restoration. |
| Keywords: | Japan, Great Divergence, GDP per capita, growth reversals, Britain |
| JEL: | N10 N30 N35 O10 O57 |
| Date: | 2017–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_156&r=knm |
| By: | De Bromhead, Alan; Fernihough, Alan; Hargaden, Enda |
| Abstract: | Electoral reforms in 1918 nearly tripled the number of people eligible to vote in Ireland. Following the reforms - the largest franchise extensions in UK history - the previously obscure Sinn Féin party secured 73 of Ireland's 105 seats, an outcome that presaged a guerrilla war and ultimately independence from the United Kingdom. This paper examines the relationship between the franchise extension and the election results. We find little evidence of a connection between the two. New female voters appear less likely to have supported Sinn Féin. New male voters were slightly more likely to vote for Sinn Féin, but the magnitude of this effect was small and statistically insignificant. In fact, non-voting appears particularly high for both groups of new voters. Our results suggest that the extension of the franchise cannot explain Sinn Féin's victory. We conclude their electoral success was more likely driven by a change of heart on behalf of the Irish electorate, rather than a change in its composition. |
| Keywords: | Voting,Elections,Ireland,Sinn Féin |
| JEL: | D72 N44 N94 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201808&r=knm |
| By: | Jose A. Lopez; Kris James Mitchener |
| Abstract: | Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. Impulse response functions show that increased uncertainty caused a rise in inflation contemporaneously and for a few months afterward in GAPH, but this effect was absent or much more limited for the other European countries in our sample. Our results suggest that elevated economic uncertainty directly affected inflation dynamics and the incidence of hyperinflation during the interwar period. |
| Keywords: | hyperinflation, uncertainty, exchange rates, prices, reparations |
| JEL: | E31 E63 F31 F33 F41 F51 G15 N14 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7066&r=knm |
| By: | McDaniels, Devin; Molina, Ana Cristina; Wijkström, Erik |
| Abstract: | This paper illustrates how the work of the WTO's standing committees is fuelling regulatory cooperation between WTO members, and inspiring RTA negotiators. We explore, as a case study, how the WTO TBT Committee has shaped provisions on international standards in RTAs, and focus on the extent to which RTAs have assimilated the WTO TBT principles for development of international standards (the Six Principles), arguably the most important decision taken by the TBT Committee over last 20-plus years. Our analysis covers 260 RTAs, and shows that while most RTAs are silent on the matter, one quarter have provisions where the Parties commit to implement WTO TBT principles, and, among these, a few go further still - for example by naming specific international standardizing bodies which are relevant in certain sectors. In addition, the RTAs sharpen and harden the Six Principles by making them directly applicable to the parties. |
| Keywords: | regional Trade Agreements,international standards,international cooperation,coherence,non-tariff barriers,technical barriers to trade,regulation |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F53 F55 K33 L15 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201806&r=knm |
| By: | Ruh, Philippe; Staubli, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Most countries reduce Disability Insurance (DI) benefits for beneficiaries earning above a specified threshold. Such an earnings threshold generates a discontinuous increase in tax liability-a notch- and creates an incentive to keep earnings below the threshold. Exploiting such a notch in Austria, we provide transparent and credible identification of the effect of financial incentives on DI beneficiaries' earnings. Using rich administrative data, we document large and sharp bunching at the earnings threshold. However, the elasticity driving these responses is small. Our estimate suggests that relaxing the earnings threshold reduces fiscal cost only if program entry is very inelastic. |
| Keywords: | benefit notch; bunching; Disability insurance; Labor Supply |
| JEL: | H53 H55 J14 J21 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12979&r=knm |
| By: | Jane Humphries; Jacob Weisdorf |
| Abstract: | Abstract: Existing measures of historical real wages suffer from the fundamental problem that workers’ annual incomes are estimated on the basis of day wages without knowing the length of the working year. We circumvent this problem by presenting a novel wage series of male workers employed on annual contracts. We use evidence of labour market arbitrage to argue that existing real wage estimates are badly off target, because they overestimate the medieval working year but underestimate the industrial one. Our data suggests that modern economic growth began two centuries earlier than hitherto thought and was driven by an ‘Industrious Revolution’. |
| Keywords: | England, industrial revolution, industrious revolution, labour input, living standards, wages, Malthusian model. |
| JEL: | J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 N33 |
| Date: | 2016–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_147&r=knm |
| By: | Roxane Bricet (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Most of real-life decision problems are usually characterized by uncertainty regarding the probability distribution of outcomes. This article experimentally investigates individual’s attitude towards partial ambiguity, defined by situations where more or less precise sets of observations are available to the agents. Drawing on Ellsberg’s 2-urns experiment, I depart from the classic design and describe both urns by datasets with different degrees of precision. As a result, most subjects behave in conformity with the Expected Utility Hypothesis although a significant proportion of choices can still be interpreted as an expression of non-neutral ambiguity attitude. I calculate an individual score of ambiguity-sensitivity which suggests a significant bias towards ambiguity-aversion, but weaker than in the related literature. |
| Keywords: | Preferences for information precision, Ambiguity, Ellsberg paradox, Experiment. |
| JEL: | C91 D81 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2018-08&r=knm |
| By: | Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Daniel; Caro Navarro, Ángela |
| Abstract: | One of the most effective techniques that allows a low-dimensional representation of Big Datasets is the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). We analyze the finite sample performance of the well-known Principal Component estimator for the common component under different scenarios. Simulation results show that for data samples with large number of observations and small time series dimension, the variance-covariance matrix specification with lags provides better estimations than the classic variance-covariance matrix. However, in high-dimension data samples the classic variance-covariance matrix performs better no matter the sample size. Second, we apply the Principal Component estimator to obtain estimates of the business cycles of the Euro Area and its country members. This application, together with a cluster analysis, studies the phenomenon known as the Two-Speed Europe with two groups of countries not geographically related. |
| Keywords: | Time series ; Factor Models ; Principal Components ; Canonical Correlations |
| Date: | 2018–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:27047&r=knm |
| By: | Matteo Barigozzi; Lorenzo Trapani |
| Abstract: | We propose a procedure to determine the dimension of the common factor space in a large, possibly non-stationary, dataset. Our procedure is designed to determine whether there are (and how many) common factors (i) with linear trends, (ii) with stochastic trends, (iii) with no trends, i.e. stationary. Our analysis is based on the fact that the largest eigenvalues of a suitably scaled covariance matrix of the data (corresponding to the common factor part) diverge, as the dimension $N$ of the dataset diverges, whilst the others stay bounded. Therefore, we propose a class of randomised test statistics for the null that the $p$-th eigenvalue diverges, based directly on the estimated eigenvalue. The tests only requires minimal assumptions on the data, and no restrictions on the relative rates of divergence of $N$ and $T$ are imposed. Monte Carlo evidence shows that our procedure has very good finite sample properties, clearly dominating competing approaches when no common factors are present. We illustrate our methodology through an application to US bond yields with different maturities observed over the last 30 years. A common linear trend and two common stochastic trends are found and identified as the classical level, slope and curvature factors. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.03647&r=knm |
| By: | Denis Cogneau (IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Yannick Dupraz (University of Warwick [Coventry]); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL - Paris Sciences et Lettres) |
| Abstract: | Why does it seem so difficultto build a sizeable developmenta state in Africa? Agrowing literature looks at the colonial roots of differences in economic development, often using the French/British difference as asource of variation to identify which features of the colonial pastmattered. We use historical archivestobuildanewdatasetofpublicfinancesin9Frenchand4Britishcoloniesof West Africa from 1900 to in dependence.Though we find some significant differences between French and British colonies, we conclude that over all patterns of public finances were similarin both empires. The most striking fact is the greatin crease in expenditure per capitain the last decades of colonization: it quadrupled between the end o World War II and independence. This increase inexpenditure was made possible partly by an increase incustoms revenue due to rising trade flows, but mostly by policy changes: netsubsidies from colonizers to their colonies became positive, while, within the colonies, direct and indirect taxation rates increased. We conclude that the last fifteen years of colonization area key period tounderstand colonial legacies. |
| Keywords: | Public finances,West Africa,state building,colonization |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01820209&r=knm |
| By: | Puls, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Die EU hat sich zum Ziel gesetzt, die CO2-Emissionen des Verkehrs im Zeitraum von 2005 bis 2030 um 30 Prozent zu senken. Damit das erreicht werden kann, müssen insbesondere die Emissionen des Pkw-Verkehrs sinken. Ohne weitere Regulierungsschritte wird der Verkehrssektor aber das Klimaziel verfehlen. Aus diesem Grund wird jetzt in Brüssel über die Fortschreibung der Emissionsgrenzwerte für neue Pkw diskutiert. Im Verkehr setzt die EU somit bislang nicht auf Mengen- oder Preissteuerung, sondern auf die Regulierung des Emissionspotenzials von Neuwagen. Der Autofahrer und die am Markt bestehende Nachfrage werden an dieser Stelle nicht adressiert. Eine große Schwäche, da alle Klimaschutzszenarien einen erfolgreichen Markthochlauf von Elektroautos erfordern, was ohne Akzeptanz beim Kunden scheitern muss. Brüssel sollte daher seinen Instrumentenkasten neu gewichten. Die Koppelung von Straßen- und Strom Sektor sollte ins Zentrum der Aufmerksamkeit rücken. Nichtsdestotrotz hat die Kommission einen Vorschlag zur Fortschreibung der Grenzwerte bis 2030 vorgelegt. Dieser ist laut Impact-Assessment zielkonform. Dennoch gibt es in Brüssel Stimmen, die eine deutliche Verschärfung der Vorlage fordern. Das ist aber der falsche Ansatz. Bereits der Kommissionsentwurf erfordert einen Markthochlauf der Elektromobilität. Dies erfordert aber, dass die Nachfrageseite das Zusatzangebot an Elektroautos auch akzeptiert. Das wird aber nur geschehen, wenn die Rahmenbedingungen passen. Insbesondere eine öffentliche Ladeinfrastruktur muss aufgebaut werden, was gerade in Deutschland noch auf Hindernisse stößt, die der Staat eigentlich schnell beseitigen könnte. Hierauf sollte der künftige klimapolitische Fokus gerichtet werden und nicht auf über den Bedarf hinausgehende Grenzwerte. Sonst droht eine Überregulierung des Angebotes und damit negative Auswirkungen auf den Industriestandort, Arbeitsplätze und auch für den Klimaschutz. |
| JEL: | O25 O30 Q54 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:212018&r=knm |
| By: | Chengyi Tu; Paolo DOdorico; Samir Suweis |
| Abstract: | Cryptocurrencies are increasingly popular digital assets/cashes programmed to work as a medium of exchange that are "secure" by design (e.g., through block-chains and cryptography). The year 2017 saw the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency market, followed by high volatility in the price of each cryptocurrency. In this work, we study critical transitions in cryptocurrency residuals through the phenomenon of critical slowing down. We find that, regardless of the specific cryptocurrency or rolling window size, the autocorrelation always fluctuates around a high value and the standard deviation increases monotonically. In particular, we have detected two sudden jumps in the standard deviation, in the second quarter of 2017 and at the beginning of 2018, suggesting early warning signals of two majors price collapse that have happened in those periods. Our findings represent a first step towards a better diagnostic of the risk of critical transition in the price and/or volume of cryptocurrencies. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.08386&r=knm |
| By: | Canta, Chiara; Cremer, Helmuth |
| Abstract: | We study the design of public long-term care (LTC) insurance when the altruism of informal caregivers is uncertain. We consider non-linear policies where the LTC benefit depends on the level of informal care, which is assumed to be observable while children's altruism is not. The traditional topping up and opting out policies are special cases of ours. Both total and informal care should increase with the children's level of altruism. This obtains under full and asymmetric information. Social LTC, on the other hand, may be non-monotonic. Under asymmetric information, social LTC is lower than its full information level for the lowest level of altruism, while it is distorted upward for the higher level of altruism. This is explained by the need to provide incentives to highaltruism children. The implementing contract is always such that social care increases with formal care. |
| Keywords: | Long term care; uncertain altruism; private insurance; public insurance; topping up; opting out |
| JEL: | H2 H5 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:32682&r=knm |
| By: | Antonio Lemus |
| Abstract: | In Chile, the empirical literature studying the dynamic effects of fiscal policy and fiscal multipliers, using linear vector autoregression models, disagrees on the effects of government spending and taxes on output. In this paper, we bring new elements to this debate. We include the nonlinear dimension of vector autoregression models to answer if the state, “tight” or “normal”, of the Chilean economy, affects fiscal policy effectiveness. Last, based on the nonlinear framework we question if monetary policy has an influence on the size of fiscal multipliers. We find that: (i) once using the same quarterly data, the size of fiscal multipliers not only varies depending on the identification strategy and the linear vector autoregression model used but also on the definitions of government spending and taxes considered; (ii) the government spending multiplier from the nonlinear framework differs, being about the unit in the “tight” regime and around -0.5 in the “normal” regime; (iii) government spending and tax multipliers in the nonlinear framework are smaller when monetary policy is taken into account, which influences the effectiveness of fiscal policy. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Fiscal Multipliers, Vector Autoregression Models |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E62 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2018-33&r=knm |
| By: | Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova); Giovanni Pellegrino (University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | We estimate a nonlinear VAR model to study the real effects of monetary policy shocks in regimes characterized by high vs. low macroeconomic uncertainty. We Â…find unexpected monetary policy moves to exert a substantially milder impact in presence of high uncertainty. We then exploit the set of impulse responses coming from the nonlinear VAR framework to estimate a medium-scale new-Keynesian DSGE model with a minimum-distance approach. The DSGE model is shown to be able to replicate the VAR evidence in both regimes thanks to different estimates of some crucial structural parameters. In particular, we identify a steeper new-Keynesian Phillips curve as the key factor behind the DSGE modelÂ’s ability to replicate the milder macroeconomic responses to a monetary policy shock estimated with our VAR in presence of high uncertainty. A version of the model featuring fiÂ…rm-speciÂ…c capital is shown to be associated to estimates of the price frequency which are in line with some recent evidence based on micro data. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy shocks, uncertainty, Threshold VAR, medium scale DSGE framework, minimum-distance estimation |
| JEL: | C22 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0219&r=knm |
| By: | Nurbekyan, Armen (Asian Development Bank Institute); Hovanessian, Naneh (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Financial inclusion has significantly advanced in Armenia during the last decade. Rural and urban areas, however, have benefited unevenly. The high cost of providing financial services, the lack of physical infrastructure, higher poverty rates, and the low level of financial literacy are the main barriers to financial inclusion in the rural areas. The availability of, and the high level of trust in, postal services in all villages, along with innovative technologies, should be exploited to address the inadequate physical infrastructure. Insurance services, in particular health and agriculture insurance, have a high growth potential. Mandatory health insurance along with an e-health infrastructure can boost high-quality financial inclusion. Targeted financial education policies addressing the most vulnerable groups, in particular the rural population and the unemployed, will significantly increase the quality of financial inclusion. Addressing data gaps, especially in the small and medium-sized enterprises sector, should be a priority for policy makers. Overall, a clear separation of strategies for financial inclusion from the National Strategy for Financial Education clarifying quantitative goals and policies will be beneficial. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion; financial literacy; regulation; Armenia |
| JEL: | G21 G28 I22 O16 |
| Date: | 2018–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0843&r=knm |
| By: | John Gibson (University of Waikato); Trinh Le (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Most developing countries lack spatially disaggregated price data, despite the importance of spatial transactions costs in these settings. We experimented in Vietnam with a new way of obtaining disaggregated price data, using local expert knowledge to derive the mean and variance for prices of 64 items in over 1000 communities. We use these prices to calculate regional cost-of-living indexes. These provide a better approximation to benchmark multilateral price indexes calculated from traditional market price surveys than do two no-price methods, based on using food Engel curves to derive deflators and based on unit values (survey group expenditure over group quantity). |
| Keywords: | expert knowledge; inequality; prices; regional cost-of-living |
| JEL: | D12 E31 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:18/08&r=knm |
| By: | Burri, Susanne.; Heeger-Hertter, Susanne.; Rossetti, Silvia. |
| Abstract: | Flexible work has steadily increased in the Dutch labour market and on-call employment represents the fastest growing group. Although on-call work is both the largest and the least institutionally regulated form of flexible employment, little is known on its developments and impacts. The main objective of this study, commissioned by the ILO, is to compensate this gap and provide an insight of the most relevant legal and socio-economic issues concerning the forms of on-call work that are used in the Netherlands. The paper relies both on available data and own research. |
| Keywords: | flexible hours of work, labour flexibility, conditions of employment, labour legislation, comment, Netherlands |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994986493402676&r=knm |
| By: | B.J. Ruffle, A. Wilson (Wilfrid Laurier University) |
| Abstract: | Despite their ubiquity, tattoos continue to be associated with dishonesty. Yet, scarce behavioral evidence exists. We test whether the tattooed and non-tattooed differ in their dishonest reporting in two consecutive incentivized experiments. First, subjects toss a coin privately five times and receive payment for each heads reported. After, subjects perform five additional coin tosses with the payment for each heads reported increased tenfold. We find few differences in the reporting behavior between the tattooed and non-tattooed in the number of heads reported in either reporting task or the difference between the two. Strategic dishonesty is limited to a small minority of subjects and to only one additional reported heads in the high-stakes tosses. |
| Keywords: | experimental economics; tattoo; honesty; strategic cheating |
| JEL: | C91 Z10 |
| Date: | 2018–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:0116&r=knm |
| By: | Gert Brunekreeft; Roland Meyer |
| Abstract: | An important goal of the European Commission is the promotion of the internal energy market (here specifically electricity), which requires sufficient and adequate cross-border interconnector capacity. However, cross-border interconnector capacity is scarce and, more importantly, the progress of interconnector capacity expansion is too slow. As a result, the Commission has proposed several policy measures to accelerate interconnector investment. This paper provides an overview of the policy debate on interconnector expansion and studies two particular points. First, the effects of network regulation on the interconnector investment and the policy proposals to improve the investment incentives, and more specifically, how to deal with risks. Second, we study the policies and effects of capacity remuneration mechanisms (CRMs) on the use of and the need for cross-border interconnector capacity. |
| Keywords: | electric utilities, regulation, market design, capacity remuneration mechanisms |
| JEL: | L94 L51 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bei:00bewp:0027&r=knm |
| By: | Maggiori, Matteo; Neiman, Brent; Schreger, Jesse |
| Abstract: | We establish that global portfolios are driven by an often neglected aspect: the currency of denomination of assets. Using a dataset of $27 trillion in security-level investment positions, we demonstrate that investor holdings are biased toward their own currencies to such an extent that each country holds the bulk of all debt securities denominated in their own currency, even those issued by foreign borrowers in developed countries. Surprisingly, currency is such a strong predictor of the nationality of a security's holder that the nationality of the issuer - to date, the most powerful predictor in a voluminous literature on cross-border portfolios - adds very little explanatory power. While large firms issue bonds in foreign currency and borrow from foreigners, the vast majority of firms issue only in local currency and do not directly access foreign capital. These patterns hold broadly across countries with the exception of countries, like the United States, that issue an international currency. The global willingness to hold the US dollar means that even smaller US firms that borrow exclusively in dollars have little difficulty borrowing from abroad. Global portfolios shifted sharply away from the euro and toward the dollar starting with the 2008 financial crisis, further cementing the dollar's international role and potentially amplifying the benefit that its status brings to the US. |
| Keywords: | Capital Flows; Exorbitant Privilege; Home Bias; reserve currencies |
| JEL: | E42 E44 F3 F55 G11 G15 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12973&r=knm |
| By: | Edgard MONCAYO JIMENEZ |
| Abstract: | En este documento se presenta un análisis de las capacidades de CTI en los departamentos del país, a la luz de los indicadores del Índice Departamental de Innovación de Colombia (2015). Además, se contrastan estos indicadores con la distribución a nivel departamental de los recursos con los que cuenta el Sistema Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación; y se destacan los casos de una “estrella ascendente” (Risaralda) y un departamento rezagado (Norte de Santander) |
| Keywords: | Capacidades Regionales Innovación – Regional InnovationCapabilities Colombia |
| Date: | 2018–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000118:016347&r=knm |
| By: | Thomas Ferreira (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | Efforts to improve the livelihoods of the poor in sub-Saharan Africa are hindered by data deficiencies. Surveys on socio-economic outcomes, for example, are generally conducted infrequently and are only statistically representative for relatively large geographic areas. To overcome these data limitations, researchers are increasingly turning to satellites which capture data for small areas at high frequencies. Night lights satellite data has particularly drawn interest and growth in lights have been shown to be a useful proxy for GDP growth (Henderson et al., 2012). However, in poor agricultural regions, night lights data might be less useful in explaining variation in socio-economic outcomes because such regions are generally under-electrified. Daytime satellite data measuring land use and vegetation quality, have been used to model socio-economic outcomes across regions, but no studies have explored whether daytime satellite data can be used to track welfare longitudinally. This paper argues that indicators of vegetation quality can be used to track welfare over time in agriculturally dominant areas. Such indicators are used extensively to predict agricultural yields and thus should correlate with welfare, as agriculture is an important source of income. This paper presents results from a small study in Namibia, that explores whether this is the case. Firstly, it is shown using classification of cropland, that daytime satellite data can identify areas of economic activity where night lights cannot. Secondly the relationship between vegetation quality and welfare is studied. Cross-sectionally, increases in vegetation quality correlate negatively with welfare. This is expected as the poor are more likely to live in rural areas. Within rural areas, however, vegetation quality correlates positively with welfare. This study thus supports the hypothesis that satellite based indicators of vegetative health can be used to track welfare over time in areas where night lights are not present. |
| Keywords: | Satellites, Night Lights, Normalised Differenced Vegetation Index, Agriculture, Poverty, Namibia |
| JEL: | I32 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers305&r=knm |
| By: | Lindeboom, M.; Montizaan, Raymond (ROA / Dynamics of the labour market) |
| Abstract: | In January 2006, the Dutch government implemented a pension reform that substantially reduced the public pension wealth of workers born in 1950 or later. At the same time, a tax-facilitated savings plan was introduced that substantially reduced the saving costs of all workers, irrespective of birth year. This paper uses linked administrative and survey data to assess the effect of the reform on the savings and retirement expectations and realizations of two virtually identical male cohorts that differ only in treatment status, the treated having been born in 1950 and the controls having been born in 1949. We show that retirement expectations are in line with realizations and that the reform had the intended effect on the labor supply for the larger part of the workers, namely, those without sufficient means to substantially increase private savings to counter the effect of the reform. These workers, who are generally in worse health, have zero substitution rates between private and public wealth. On the other hand, there is a group of mostly high-wage workers who participate in the tax-facilitated Life Course Savings Scheme and who increase private savings to fully counter the impact of the drop in public wealth. A further, unintended side effect of the introduction of the tax-facilitated savings plan is that high wage earners who are not affected by the drop in pension wealth retire even sooner than initially planned. |
| Keywords: | natural experiment, regression discontinuity, retirement, private wealth, public wealth, crowding out, substitution rate |
| JEL: | J26 H55 J14 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umaror:2018004&r=knm |
| By: | Vásquez Núñez, Javiera. |
| Abstract: | Este artículo examina los patrones decrecimiento económico, el cambio estructural, así como la pobreza y la desigualdad en el mercado laboral en Chile, entre los años 2006 y 2015. Usando microdatos, la autora ha elaborado extensas tabulaciones para proveer información de un amplio rango de indicadores laborales que no habían estado previamente disponibles. A partir de los datos presentados, una importante implicación es que la transformación estructural de Chile en las décadas pasadas ha sido en sectores donde los niveles de productividad laboral son relativamente menores. Un desafío futuro para Chile es facilitar y administrar el proceso de transformación estructural de una manera justa e inclusiva, además de ampliarse a más sectores productivos. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987693302676&r=knm |
| By: | Fischer, Manfred M.; LeSage, James P. |
| Abstract: | The focus is on cross-sectional dependence in panel trade flow models. We propose alternative specifications for modeling time invariant factors such as socio-cultural indicator variables, e.g., common language and currency. These are typically treated as a source of heterogeneity eliminated using fixed effects transformations, but we find evidence of cross-sectional dependence after eliminating country-specific effects. These findings suggest use of alternative simultaneous dependence model specifications that accommodate cross-sectional dependence, which we set forth along with Bayesian estimation methods. Ignoring cross-sectional dependence implies biased estimates from panel trade flow models that rely on fixed effects. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian, MCMC estimation, socio-cultural distance, origin-destination flows, treatment of time invariant variables, panel models |
| Date: | 2018–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus046:6361&r=knm |
| By: | Andrei P. Kirilyuk (Metallic State Theory Department - Institute of Metal Physics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | An extended analysis compared to observations shows that modern "globalised" world civilisation has passed through the invisible "complexity threshold" , after which usual "spontaneous" , empirically driven kind of development ("invisible hand" etc.) cannot continue any more without major destructive tendencies. A much deeper, non-simplified understanding of real interaction complexity is necessary in order to cope with such globalised world development problems. Here we introduce the universal definition, fundamental origin, and dynamic equations for a major related quantity of (systemic) risk characterising real complex system development tendencies at any level of dynamics. Practically important conclusions are derived, opening further detailed applications in economy, finance and development practice. |
| Date: | 2017–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01797479&r=knm |
| By: | Cornel Kaufmann, Tobias Mueller, Andreas Hefti, Stefan Boes |
| Abstract: | Choice-based health insurance systems allow individuals to select a health plan that ts their needs. However, bounded rationality and limited attention may lead to sub-optimal insurance coverage and higher-than-expected out-of-pocket payments. In this paper, we study the impact of providing personalized information on health plan choices in a laboratory experiment. We seek to more closely mimic real-life choices by randomly providing an incentivized distraction to some individuals. We nd that providing personalized information signi cantly improves health plan choices. The positive e ect is even larger and longer-lasting if individuals are distracted from their original task. In addition to providing decision support, receiving personalized information restores the awareness of the choice setting to a level comparable to the case without distraction thus reducing inertia. Our results indicate that increasing transparency of the health insurance system and providing tailored information can help individuals to make better choices and reduce their out-of-pocket expenditures. |
| Keywords: | health insurance choice; decision under uncertainty; limited attention; information; laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | I13 D83 C91 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1808&r=knm |
| By: | De Resende, Carlos (Asian Development Bank Institute); Takagi, Shinji (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We identify the key features of International Monetary Fund (IMF)–supported programs following the 2008 global financial crisis. The statistical analysis of a large sample of countries that borrowed from the IMF during 1997–2013 indicates that, compared to the amount of financing provided to crisis countries during the post-Asian crisis period, the amount was larger on average by more than 3 percentage points of GDP. Yet, the observed magnitude of adjustment in key macroeconomic variables, such as output, the exchange rate, and the current account balance, was just as large, even when the influence of less favorable global economic conditions was controlled for. We argue that the puzzle can be explained, in part, by the large-scale global financial deleveraging, as well as the large initial domestic imbalances observed during the post-global crisis period. The IMF’s post-global crisis programs routinely allowed fiscal balance targets to be relaxed in the face of adverse shocks; some attempted to bail in private investors or accommodated the use of capital and exchange controls to limit capital outflows; and the IMF often collaborated with other donors to boost total official financing. It is reasonable to surmise that, without these innovations, the required macroeconomic adjustments would have been even greater. |
| Keywords: | Asian financial crisis; global financial crisis; IMF programs |
| JEL: | E65 F33 F53 F55 |
| Date: | 2018–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0838&r=knm |
| By: | Delphine Lautier (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Franck Raynaud (Lausanne university - Lausanne university); Michel Robe (University of Illinois - university of Illinois) |
| Abstract: | We apply the concepts of mutual information and information flows and we built directed graphs to investigate empirically the propagation of price fluctuations across a futures term structure. We focus on price relationships for North American crude oil futures because this key market experienced several structural shocks between 2000 and 2014: financialization (starting in 2003), infrastructure limitations (in 2008-2011) and regulatory changes (in 2012-2014). Wefind large variations over time in the amount of information shared by contracts with different maturities. The mutual information increased substantially starting in 2004 but fell back sharply in 2012-2014. In the crude oil space, our findings point to a possible re-segmentation of the futures market by maturity in 2012-2014. This raises questions about the causes of market segmentation. In addition, although on average short-dated contracts (up to 6 months) emit more information than backdated ones, a dynamic analysis reveals that, after 2012, similar amounts of information flow backward as flow forward along the futures maturity curve. Moreover, the directions of the transfers between pairs of maturities become drastically different. This has implications for the Samuelson effect. |
| Keywords: | Mutual information,Market integration,Shocks propagation,Information flows,Directed graphs,Term structure,Futures,Crude oil,WTI |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01781761&r=knm |
| By: | Michal Franta |
| Abstract: | This paper provides estimates of the probability of an economy hitting its effective lower bound (ELB) on the nominal interest rate and of the expected duration of such an event for eight advanced economies. To that end, a mean-adjusted panel vector autoregression with static interdependencies and the possibility of regime change is estimated. The simulation procedure produces ELB risk estimates for both the short term, where the current phase of the business cycle plays an important role, and the medium term, where the occurrence of an ELB situation is determined mainly by the equilibrium values of macroeconomic variables. The paper also discusses the ELB event probability estimates with respect to previous approaches used in the literature. |
| Keywords: | Effective lower bound, ELB risk, mean adjustment, panel VAR, regime change |
| JEL: | C11 E37 E52 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2018/3&r=knm |
| By: | Giuntella, Osea; Mazzonna, Fabrizio; Nicodemo, Catia; Vargas-Silva, Carlos |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of immigration on the allocation of occupational physical burden and work injury risks. Using data for England and Wales from the Labour Force Survey (2003-2013), we find that, on average, immigration leads to a reallocation of UK-born workers towards jobs characterized by lower physical burden and injury risk. The results also show important differences across skill groups. Immigration reduces the average physical burden of UK-born workers with medium levels of education, but has no significant effect on those with low levels. We also find that that immigration led to an improvement selfreported measures of native workers’ health. These findings, together with the evidence that immigrants report lower injury rates than natives, suggest that the reallocation of tasks could reduce overall health care costs and the human and financial costs typically associated with workplace injuries. |
| Keywords: | Immigration,labor-market,physical burden,work-related injuries,health |
| JEL: | J61 I10 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:215&r=knm |
| By: | Morgan, Peter J. (Asian Development Bank Institute); Trinh, Long Q. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine the heterogeneous effect of migration on left-behind children’s education and labor in Viet Nam. Since decisions to attend school and to work are jointly determined, we use a simultaneous equation modeling approach to estimate the effect of migration on child education and labor. Since migration also affects household welfare, we also integrate household welfare into our system of equations. We use a unique household-level data set collected in 2012 and 2014 in rural Viet Nam. We find that migration of other family members does not affect a child’s decision to attend school directly, but does so indirectly through an increase in time spent at work. However, migration might increase household income, and this may also have a positive effect on child education and reduce child labor. We also find some heterogeneous effects by type of migration (migration for education and migration for work purposes) as well as effects of sending money to migrants and receiving money from migrants on household income, child labor, and ultimately child education. |
| Keywords: | child education; child labor; child welfare; migration; Viet Nam |
| JEL: | D01 D13 J13 |
| Date: | 2018–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0835&r=knm |
| By: | Lukas Schlogl (King’s College London); Andy Sumner (King’s College London) |
| Abstract: | Employment generation is crucial to spreading the benefits of economic growth broadly and to reducing global poverty. And yet, emerging economies face a contemporary challenge to traditional pathways to employment generation: automation, digitalization, and labor-saving technologies. 1.8 billion jobs—or two-thirds of the current labor force of developing countries—are estimated to be susceptible to automation from today’s technological standpoint. Cumulative advances in industrial automation and labor-saving technologies could further exacerbate this trend. Or will they? In this paper we: (i) discuss the literature on automation; and in doing so (ii) discuss definitions and determinants of automation in the context of theories of economic development; (iii) assess the empirical estimates of employment-related impacts of automation; (iv) characterize the potential public policy responses to automation; and (v) highlight areas for further exploration in terms of employment and economic development strategies in developing countries. In an adaption of the Lewis model of economic development, the paper uses a simple framework in which the potential for automation creates “unlimited supplies of artificial labor” particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors due to technological feasibility. This is likely to create a push force for labor to move into the service sector, leading to a bloating of service-sector employment and wage stagnation but not to mass unemployment, at least in the short-to-medium term. |
| Date: | 2018–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:487&r=knm |
| By: | Alvaro Cartea; Sebastian Jaimungal; Jamie Walton |
| Abstract: | We examine the Foreign Exchange (FX) spot price spreads with and without Last Look on the transaction. We assume that brokers are risk-neutral and they quote spreads so that losses to latency arbitrageurs (LAs) are recovered from other traders in the FX market. These losses are reduced if the broker can reject, ex-post, loss-making trades by enforcing the Last Look option which is a feature of some trading venues in FX markets. For a given rejection threshold the risk-neutral broker quotes a spread to the market so that her expected profits are zero. When there is only one venue, we find that the Last Look option reduces quoted spreads. If there are two venues we show that the market reaches an equilibrium where traders have no incentive to migrate. The equilibrium can be reached with both venues coexisting, or with only one venue surviving. Moreover, when one venue enforces Last Look and the other one does not, counterintuitively, it may be the case that the Last Look venue quotes larger spreads. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.04460&r=knm |
| By: | Hargita, Yvonne; Hinkes, Cordula; Bick, Ulrich; Peter, Günter |
| Abstract: | Der Anbau von Soja ist insbesondere in Brasilien ein relevanter Treiber für die Umwandlung von Primärwäldern. Die Europäische Union im Allgemeinen und Deutschland im Besonderen tragen durch den Import von Soja für die Herstellung von Futtermitteln indirekt zur Entwaldung bei. Mit der Amsterdam Erklärung 2015 hat die deutsche Bundesregierung gemeinsam mit anderen europäischen Staaten erklärt, privatwirtschaftliche Initiativen dabei zu unterstützen, bis 2020 Agrar-Lieferketten von Entwaldung zu entkoppeln. In der Regel verwenden Unternehmen Zertifizierungssysteme um Entwaldungsfreiheit, aber auch die Einhaltung sozialer und anderer ökologischer Kriterien nachzuweisen. Zum Vergleich dieser Kriterien wurden diejenigen Soja-Zertifizierungssysteme analysiert, die mit den Leitlinien des Europäischen Dachverbands für Futtermittelhersteller konform sind. Die vorliegende Analyse hat ergeben, dass sich die Anforderungen zwischen verschiedenen Systemen stark unterscheiden. Bei einer Bewertung der Anforderungen in verschiedenen relevanten Bereichen - Schutz von Ökosystemen, gute landwirtschaftliche Praxis, soziale Kriterien, Auditierungs- und Rückverfolgungssysteme -, haben die Systeme ISCC PLUS und ISCC EU am besten abgeschnitten. Ebenfalls hohe Anforderungen stellen ProTerra und RTRS. Diese Zertifizierungssysteme sind geeignet, um sowohl die politischen Ziele der Amsterdam Erklärung zu erreichen, als auch die Selbstverpflichtung relevanter Initiativen des Privatsektors, wie die des Consumer Goods Forums. |
| Keywords: | Zertifizierung,Entwaldung,Lieferketten,Soja,FEFAC,Certification Schemes,Deforestation,Supply Chains,Soy |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:98&r=knm |
| By: | Rasool, Haroon; Adil, Masudul Hasan; Tarique, Md |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy approaches in India has changed from simple monetary targeting framework in the mid-1980s to multiple indicator approach in the late 1990s and to the current flexible inflation targeting framework. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship among selected macroeconomic variables such as, money supply, real income, price level and interest rate for period 1998 to 2014 in case of India; a period when the Multiple Indicator Approach (MIA) was implemented. The study employs vector autoregression (VAR) approach to examine the dynamics of the relationship between variables. The result shows that lags of all dependent variables are significant except real income. The Granger causality via VAR framework suggests that four pairs of Granger causality exist, in particular, bi-directional causality exists between money supply and price level. Interest rate Granger causes both income and price level, and lastly money supply causes the rate of interest. However, the study could not find any causal relationship between real income and money supply in either direction. The findings of Impulse response functions and Variance decomposition reinforce causality results. Finally, the estimated result supports the arguments which are made in favour of policy move from MIA to inflation targeting framework. |
| Keywords: | Multiple Indicator Approach, VAR, Granger causality, IRF and VD. |
| JEL: | C5 E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87452&r=knm |
| By: | Grimmel, Andreas; Li, Yuan |
| Abstract: | Initiated under the Presidency of Xi Jinping in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is still a young, yet a fast-developing and most ambitious regionalist project. Despite BRI's great potential to shape international trade and - more broadly - international relations amongst participating countries and beyond, scientific studies so far have largely neglected the question of how BRI goes together with contemporary approaches of regionalism and regional integration. This article argues that BRI constitutes a type of hybrid regionalism that seems to largely elude the old-new-regionalism divide and instead, it embraces elements of both traditions. In order to elucidate this double nature of the project, we will first discuss the idea of integration theory that has been developed in the context of the European integration process as well as such approaches that came up in the context of approaches of new regionalism. On this basis, and by referring to central elements of BRI as well as current developments in the framework of the project, we will shed light on the parallels and differences of BRI with "old" and "new" regionalism. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road Initiative,New Silk Road,Old regionalism,New regionalism,Regional integration,China |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:udedao:1222018&r=knm |
| By: | Erika Arraño; Juan Pablo Cova |
| Abstract: | Technological advances and the development of new payment instruments have triggered the replacement of traditional instruments, cash and checks, by electronic ones, both in Chile and around the world. This replacement is attributed to the latter’s characteristics of safety and convenience. In comparison with developed economies, Chile still has a low use of electronic transfers of funds and credit and debit cards. However, in a Latin American comparison, it is located in the upper part of the distribution, where worth mentioning is the use of debit cards that intensifies with the appearance of the sight account "CuentaRut". In economic terms, this tendency of the payment means has an impact on the demand for money or some of its components, which is what is sought to determine in this paper using a VECM. The results show different responses of money and its components to the increase in payment instruments transactions. Currency is reduced by substitution effect, while the balances in current accounts and deposit and savings accounts increase with the use of debit cards, by complementarity between products. Meanwhile, credit cards cause a decline in the current account balances, associated with the lag between the moments the goods are purchased and paid. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchee:125&r=knm |
| By: | Frey, Lisa; Engelhard, Lisa |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present a review of tax research in accounting. We outline U.S. GAAP accounting rules for the following four income tax notes and survey the area of research literature dealing with the information content provided by U.S. GAAP: (1) unrecognized tax benefits, (2) valuation allowances, (3) foreign earnings designated as permanently reinvested, and (4) book-tax differences. Building on this, we present the accounting rules for comparable income tax notes following IFRS standards and offer which we believe are interesting avenues for future research on the information on tax notes provided by IFRS financial statements. |
| Keywords: | UTB,valuation allowance,permanently reinvested earnings,book-tax difference,U.S. GAAP,IFRS,tax notes |
| JEL: | M40 M41 M48 H20 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:upadbr:b2817&r=knm |
| By: | Köhler, Jonathan Hugh; Hohmann, Claudia; Dütschke, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | Sustainability transitions take place across geographical and political levels. Services such as energy supply, water supply and wastewater management or housing are part of daily life have to be provided at the district level within larger urban governance structures or by smaller rural administrations. However, relatively little attention has been given to the analysis of these local structures. This paper reviews case studies of niches in the areas of district heat networks, communal housing projects for the elderly and sustainable water/wastewater management. The paper addresses the following research questions: 1. What are the similarities and differences in the case study's drivers and barriers that have arisen between the fields of action and what conclusions can be drawn from these insights in order to maximize success factors or to minimize obstacles in advance? 2. What are the key factors for transition, also with regard to the synergies of the three fields of action? 3. What is the stage of development of the niches? Are they in a transition process or not? District heat networks are established as a niche, but given the current policy and financial environment are developing very slowly. Communal housing projects are a small part of the overall housing market, but the niche is stable and growing. Waste water separation and new rain water management systems are developing as niches, but the centralised management of decentralised waste water treatment has so far only been adopted in a few cases. These niches are all critically dependent on support from the district authorities. High complexity and inconsistency in legal frameworks, and missing financial re-sources present significant barriers for innovative niche projects. They usually require new, specific financial support to enable the change from conventional systems. These groups face a difficult period of developing their expertise in planning and management and often require financial support and advice. Consultancy networks - if available - have been shown to be important in enabling such pro-jects to establish themselves. As all three case studies rely on infrastructure components, stakeholders need to consider windows of opportunities for innovation. Acceptance and trust are additional factors influencing the projects. Therefore, constructive and goal-oriented "interaction" and communication between the stakeholders on district and project level are key factors for success. It is important to share data and information to guarantee an early integration of important stakeholders, including the public. Projects in all three areas have the ambition of improved sustainability, although data on the actual impact is limited. The housing projects can be argued to contribute to sustainability in all three areas: environmental, social and economic. The district heat networks are supposed to reduce environmental impacts compared to current systems, but there was insufficient monitoring information to be certain that this is the case. The alternative water management systems all make a contribution to environmental sustainability and can be shown to be economically viable. If successful, projects in all three sectors can strengthen local social structures. Economic sustainability is a necessary condition for the success of projects in all three areas and this requires financial support and resources that are not available through the conventional housing, energy or water services market institutions. While projects on district and household level are fundamental to a sustainability transition, efforts for upscaling their impacts (Luederitz et al. 2017) are just as important. The challenges for actors on local to global scale are to learn from different narratives and adapt different perspectives, build unconventional alliances and collaborations to implement innovative, creative and intelligent solutions for a sustainability transition on a larger scale (Luederitz et al. 2017; Wittmayer et al. 2016; Brown et al. 2013). |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s112018&r=knm |
| By: | Kamila Cygan-Rehm; Christoph Wunder |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the causal effect of working hours on health. We deal with the endogeneity of working hours through instrumental variables techniques. In particular, we exploit exogenous variation in working hours from statutory workweek regulations in the German public sector as an instrumental variable. Using panel data, we run two-stage least squares regressions controlling for individual-specific unobserved heterogeneity. We find adverse consequences of increasing working hours on subjective and several objective health measures. The effects are mainly driven by women and parents of minor children who generally face heavier constraints in organizing their workweek. |
| Keywords: | working time, health, standard workweek, Germany |
| JEL: | I10 J22 J81 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7098&r=knm |
| By: | Jerry Tsai; Jessica A. Wachter |
| Abstract: | We solve for asset prices in a general affine representative-agent economy with isoelastic recursive utility and rare events. Our novel solution method is exact in two special cases: no preference for early resolution of uncertainty and elasticity of intertemporal substitution equal to one. Our results clarify model properties governed by the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, by risk aversion, and by the preference for early resolution of uncertainty. Finally, we show in a general setting that the linear relation between normal-times covariances and expected returns need not hold in a model with rare events. |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24641&r=knm |
| By: | Thai Nguyen; Mitja Stadje |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a VaR-regulated optimal portfolio problem of the equity holder of a participating life insurance contract. In a complete market setting the optimal solution is given explicitly for contracts with mortality risk using a martingale approach for constrained non-concave optimizations. We show that regulatory VaR constraints for participating insurance contracts lead to more prudent investment than the unconstrained solution in loss states. This result is contrary to the situation where the insurer maximizes the utility of the total wealth of the company (without distinguishing between equity and policy holders), in which case a VaR constraint may induce the insurer to take excessive risk leading to higher losses than in the case of no regulation, see Basak and Shapiro (2001). Furthermore, importantly for regulator we observe that for participating insurance contracts both relatively small or relatively large policyholder contributions yield rather risky and volatile strategies. Finally, we also discuss the regulatory effect of a portfolio insurance (PI), and analyze different choices for the parameters of the participating contract numerically. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1805.09068&r=knm |
| By: | María Luisa Streb |
| Abstract: | La poscrisis del 2008 puso de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las prácticas de transparencia en las empresas y en este sentido fue reformulado el Código de Gobierno Societario (CGS) de la Comisión Nacional de Valores. La introducción del CGS brinda una oportunidad para testear una iniciativa de autorregulación del tipo “cumple o explica”, en la que su difusión es mandataria, pero no hay obligación de cumplimiento. Se analiza esta cuestión desde diferentes marcos teóricos: la teoría de juegos, la teoría de expectativas racionales, la teoría de la economía del comportamiento y los imperativos mandatarios. Consideramos que la autorregulación es un mecanismo válido, aunque vemos la necesidad de un mayor monitoreo por parte del regulador. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:632&r=knm |
| By: | Macdonald,Kevin Alan David; Brinkman,Sally Ann; Jarvie,Wendy; Machuca-Sierra,Myrna; Mcdonall,Kristen Andrew; Messaoud-Galusi,Souhila; Tapueluelu,Siosiana; Vu,Binh Thanh |
| Abstract: | : Identifying cost-effective interventions to improve early literacy is vital to developing countries, given the importance of early literacy for an individual's future education outcomes and subsequent human capital formation. This paper presents the impact on early grade reading outcomes of two low-cost randomized interventions in Tonga: a reading instruction intervention and a community play-based activity intervention. The first intervention aims to improve early grade reading outcomes specifically; estimated impacts are approximately 0.3 standard deviation, although in some reading domains impacts are substantial, ranging from 0.6 to 0.7 standard deviation. The second intervention aims to improve school readiness and subsequently early grade reading outcomes, by providing communities with support to establish a community play-based activity. Using an instrumental variables approach, the play-based activity demonstrates positive impacts of around 0.2 standard deviation in many but not all reading domains. For the domains where a statistically significant impact is measured, the community play-based activity intervention is as at least as cost effective as the reading instruction intervention. The play-based activity intervention is shown to improve test scores by 0.21 to 0.47 standard deviation per US$100, depending on the reading test domain. The reading instruction intervention improves test scores by 0.08 to 0.34 standard deviation per US$100. These findings contribute further evidence on the effectiveness of reading instruction interventions, and possibly the first estimates of the impact of play group?type interventions on primary school reading outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth,Educational Sciences,Economic Theory&Research,Industrial Economics |
| Date: | 2017–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7944&r=knm |
| By: | Víctor Manuel NIETO GALINDO; Tatiana Carolina NIÑO |
| Abstract: | Utilizando el concepto de cadena productiva este documento propone una metodología para describir la evolución de las empresas industriales que elaboran Productos Hortofrutícolas para el período 2001 – 2017. Utilizando la Matriz Insumo – Producto del Sector Industrial, el documento identifica los principales etapas y subprocesos que hacen parte del proceso productivo y presenta el flujograma de la cadena productiva. El documento presenta también un conjunto de indicadores que caracterizan la cadena productiva: número de empresas; distribución geográfica y por tamaño empresarial; valor de la producción; concentración geográfica de la producción; nivel de encadenamiento de los eslabones intermedios; exportaciones e importaciones; concentración de las exportaciones e importaciones por socio comercial y eslabones finales; creación y desviación de comercio derivada de los acuerdos comerciales firmados por Colombia; tasa de protección efectiva y nominal; y prospectiva de las exportaciones en mercados estratégicos. |
| Keywords: | Sector Manufacturero, Cadena Productiva, ProductosHortofrutícolas, Matriz Insumo Producto, Estructura de Mercado, AcuerdosComerciales. |
| JEL: | D22 D40 D57 F14 L66 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000118:016346&r=knm |
| By: | Tembo Nakamoto; Yuichi Ikeda |
| Abstract: | Due to economic globalization, each country's economic law, including tax laws and tax treaties, has been forced to work as a single network. However, each jurisdiction (country or region) has not made its economic law under the assumption that its law functions as an element of one network, so it has brought unexpected results. We thought that the results are exactly international tax avoidance. To contribute to the solution of international tax avoidance, we tried to investigate which part of the network is vulnerable. Specifically, focusing on treaty shopping, which is one of international tax avoidance methods, we attempt to identified which jurisdiction are likely to be used for treaty shopping from tax liabilities and the relationship between jurisdictions which are likely to be used for treaty shopping and others. For that purpose, based on withholding tax rates imposed on dividends, interest, and royalties by jurisdictions, we produced weighted multiple directed graphs, computed the centralities and detected the communities. As a result, we clarified the jurisdictions that are likely to be used for treaty shopping and pointed out that there are community structures. The results of this study suggested that fewer jurisdictions need to introduce more regulations for prevention of treaty abuse worldwide. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.00799&r=knm |
| By: | Zvi Safra (Warwick Business School; Tel Aviv University); Uzi Segal (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | We consider a risk averse decision maker who dislikes ambiguity as in the Ellsberg urns and compare the certainty equivalent of this gamble with the certainty equivalent of the anchoring probabilistic lottery. We deal first with the Choquet EU model and show that un- der some conditions on the capacity nu, when independent ambiguous gambles are repeated and the expected value of the anchoring lot- tery is zero, the difference between the average ambiguous and risky certainty equivalents converges to zero. When the parallel expected value is positive, we show that if the average certainty equivalent of the risky lottery is non-negative, then so is the limit of the average value for the ambiguous model. These results do not extend to the maxmin model or to the smooth recursive model. |
| Keywords: | Ellsberg urns, repeated ambiguity, repeated risk, Choquet expected utility, maxmin |
| JEL: | D81 |
| Date: | 2018–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:954&r=knm |
| By: | Blanas, Sotiris.; Seric, Adnan.; Viegelahn, Christian, |
| Abstract: | Using a unique sample of foreign-owned and domestic firms in Sub- Saharan Africa, we study the differences in the quantity and quality of jobs that they offer, and identify how these differences are determined by country- level institutional factors. After controlling for numerous firm-level characteristics, we find that foreign-owned firms offer more stable and secure jobs than domestic firms, as evidenced by their higher and lower shares of permanent full-time and temporary employment, respectively. The job stability and security advantage of foreign-owned firms is smaller in countries with higher firing costs and better governance, where domestic firms are likely to offer more stable and secure jobs. In addition, foreign-owned firms are less likely to offer unpaid work and have a lower share of these workers. They also have a higher average training intensity and pay an average wage premium, as well as wage premia to production, non-production and managerial workers. The wage premia of foreign-owned firms are lower in countries with higher governance and social policy standards, where domestic firms are likely to pay higher wages. Finally, we show that the job quality advantage of foreign-owned firms depends on the location of their parents, the mode of their establishment, their main business purpose and the most critical investment incentive received from the host country. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987491902676&r=knm |
| By: | Mavisakalyan, Astghik; Minasyan, Anna |
| Abstract: | Recent evidence shows that highly skewed sex ratios at birth are observed not only in China and India, but also for a number of countries in the Southeast Europe and South Caucasus - a region that has seen eruptions of conflicts following the collapse of communist regimes. Yet, the role of conflict has been largely overlooked in the relevant literature on ”missing girls”. We argue that conflict and group survival concerns can exacerbate the initial son bias and lead to relatively more male births once low fertility levels and access to ultrasound technology are given. We test our hypotheses in the context of Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. First, individual-level survey analysis from Armenia shows that relatively stronger concern over national security and territorial integrity is significantly associated with son preference. Second, difference-in-difference panel analysis of community-level census data shows that once ceasefire breaches between Armenia and Azerbaijan intensified, Armenian communities closer to the conflict region exhibited relatively higher sex ratios at birth. |
| Keywords: | discrimination,sex ratios,conflict |
| JEL: | D74 J13 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:217&r=knm |
| By: | J\"orn Sass; Dorothee Westphal; Ralf Wunderlich |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates a financial market where returns depend on an unobservable Gaussian drift process. While the observation of returns yields information about the underlying drift, we also incorporate discrete-time expert opinions as an external source of information. For estimating the hidden drift it is crucial to consider the conditional distribution of the drift given the available observations, the so-called filter. For an investor observing both the return process and the discrete-time expert opinions, we investigate in detail the asymptotic behavior of the filter as the frequency of the arrival of expert opinions tends to infinity. In our setting, a higher frequency of expert opinions comes at the cost of accuracy, meaning that as the frequency of expert opinions increases, the variance of expert opinions becomes larger. We consider a model where information dates are deterministic and equidistant and another model where the information dates arrive randomly as the jump times of a Poisson process. In both cases we derive limit theorems stating that the information obtained from observing the discrete-time expert opinions is asymptotically the same as that from observing a certain diffusion process which can be interpreted as a continuous-time expert. We use these limit theorems to derive so-called diffusion approximations of the filter for high-frequency discrete-time expert opinions. They allow for simplified approximate solutions of utility maximization problems since the convergence of the filter carries over to the convergence of the value function for logarithmic utility. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1807.00568&r=knm |
| By: | Caruso, Alberto (Université Libre de Bruxelles); Reichlin, Lucrezia (London Business School ; CEPR); Ricco, Giovanni (OFCE ; SciencesPo) |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights the anomalous characteristics of the Euro Area `twin crises' by contrasting the aggregate macroeconomic dynamics in the period 2009-2013 with the business cycle fluctuations of the previous decades. We report three stylised facts. First, the contraction in output was marked by an anomalous downfall in investment, while consumption, savings and unemployment followed their historical relation with GDP. Second, households' and financial corporations' debts, and house prices deviated from their pre-crisis trends. Third, the jump in the public decit GDP ratio in 2008-2009 was unprecedented and so was the scal consolidation that followed. Our analysis points to the financial nature of the crisis as a likely explanation for these facts. Importantly, the `anomaly' in public deficit is in large part explained by extraordinary measures in support of the financial sector, which show up in the stockflow adjustments and reveal a key interaction between the fiscal and the financial sectors. |
| Keywords: | Euro Area ; government debt ; recessions ; financial crises ; business cycles |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C54 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1167&r=knm |
| By: | Laeven, Luc; McAdam, Peter; Popov, Alexander |
| Abstract: | We offer new evidence on the real effects of credit shocks in the presence of employment protection regulations by exploiting a unique provision in Spanish labor laws: dismissal rules are less stringent for Spanish firms with fewer than 50 employees, lowering the cost of hiring new workers. Using a new dataset, we find that during the financial crisis, healthy firms with fewer than 50 employees borrowing from troubled banks grew faster in sectors where capital and labor were sufficiently substitutable. This result does not obtain when we use a different cut-off for Spain or the same cut-off for firms in Germany. Our evidence suggests that labor market flexibility can dampen the negative effect of credit shocks by allowing firms to keep growing by substituting labor for capital. JEL Classification: G21, J80, D20 |
| Keywords: | capital-labor substitution, credit crunch, employment protection, firmgrowth |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182166&r=knm |
| By: | Krogstrup, Signe; Tille, Cédric |
| Abstract: | The literature on drivers of capital flows stresses the prominent role of global financial factors. Recent empirical work, however, highlights how this role varies across countries and time, and this heterogeneity is not well understood. We revisit this question by focusing on financial intermediaries' funding flows in different currencies. A portfolio model shows that the sign and magnitude of the response of foreign currency funding flows to global risk factors depend on the financial intermediary's pre-existing currency exposure. Analysis of data on European banks' aggregate balance sheets lends support to the model predictions, especially in countries outside the euro area. |
| Keywords: | currency mismatch,capital flows,push factors,spillovers,cross-border transmission of shocks,European bank balance sheets |
| JEL: | F32 F34 F36 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2104&r=knm |
| By: | Canessa Montejo, Miguel F., |
| Abstract: | El diálogo social es uno de los principios fundamentales de la OIT y un objetivo estratégico de su Programa de Trabajo Decente. Debería formar parte de la reglamentación de las relaciones laborales en el sector público. El diálogo y la negociación pueden y deberían ser factores clave para la equidad, la eficiencia y el buen funcionamiento del sector público. Sin embargo, como pueden envolver intereses contrapuestos, ni el diálogo social ni la negociación están libres de conflictos. Si hemos de alentar a los gobiernos y los sindicatos del sector público a adoptar esta dinámica en el ámbito de la administración pública, donde la paz laboral es particularmente importante ante la opinión pública, debe prestarse suma atención a todos los aspectos de la gestión de los conflictos. Esto es particularmente relevante en un entorno de reducciones presupuestarias y de medidas de austeridad. Este informe, redactado por el profesor Miguel Canessa Montejo de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, presenta un análisis comparativo de las prácticas del diálogo social en el servicio público en América Latina. El mismo demuestra cómo los principios del Convenio núm. 151 se han implementado a través de la legislación y la negociación colectiva. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987690702676&r=knm |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; John Wallis |
| Abstract: | Abstract Using annual data from the thirteenth century to the present, we show that improved long run economic performance has occurred primarily through a decline in the rate and frequency of shrinking, rather than through an increase in the rate of growing. Indeed, as economic performance has improved over time, the short run rate of growing has typically declined rather than increased. Most analysis of the process of economic development has hitherto focused on increasing the rate of growing. Here, we focus on understanding the forces making for a reduction in the rate of shrinking, drawing a distinction between proximate and ultimate factors. The main proximate factors considered are (1) structural change (2) technological change (3) demographic change and (4) the changing incidence of warfare. We conclude with a consideration of institutional change as the key ultimate factor behind the reduction in shrinking. |
| Date: | 2017–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_154&r=knm |
| By: | Yuan, Weipeng; Macve, Richard; Ma, Debin |
| Abstract: | Claims have repeatedly been made for the importance of double-entry bookkeeping (‘DEB’) for capitalism’s development in the West, so it is valuable to explore the book-keeping and accounting practices of economically successful organizations elsewhere. Our paper reports our exploration into the original account books contained in the archive of Tŏng Tài Shēng (‘TTS’), a substantial Chinese ‘grocery / merchant-banking’ business whose surviving books span a period from the late 18th century to the middle of the 19th century. The TTS archive is the most complete and integrated surviving merchant archive from before China’s forced opening to the West in the mid-19th century. Our findings about its accounting processes and records (of which we give illustrations) shed critical light on the nature of indigenous Chinese bookkeeping and business organization and on the larger questions about Chinese commercial culture and the path of its development, for comparison with those about the West. We find no evidence in the surviving account books of TTS to support previous arguments in the literature that at this period Chinese accounting practice for successful businesses (must have) had its own 'Chinese double entry bookkeeping' ('CDEB') comparable to Western DEB. |
| Keywords: | Chinese accounting archives of late Qīng era; Chinese business history; Sūzhōu măzì; double-entry bookkeeping (DEB) |
| JEL: | N0 M40 |
| Date: | 2017–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68321&r=knm |
| By: | José Antonio Alonso |
| Abstract: | The paper focuses on two crucial issues that hinder the fiscal sovereignty of developing countries: the reduced level of international tax cooperation, and the lack of appropriate procedures for sovereign debt crisis resolution. The low level of international tax cooperation enables a ‘race to the bottom’ in tax rates among countries, tax avoidance through profit-shifting activities by companies and tax evasion by individuals and companies, based on the existence of non-cooperative jurisdictions. In the last five years, the international community has made some improvements in this field, but the situation remains far from satisfactory. On the other hand, the current procedure for sovereign debt resolution, through negotiations at the Paris Club with the support of the IMF, is not only unfair, but also inefficient. The paper explores alternatives in both fields. Appropriate responses to these international problems would have to show benefits in terms of efficiency and welfare at the global level, and establish fundamentals for countries to take full advantage of their resources, which is a necessary condition for funding policies that will not leave (or push) any nation or social sector behind. |
| Keywords: | tax system, international tax cooperation, tax avoidance, tax evasion, tax havens, external debt, restructuring debt, sovereign debt resolution |
| JEL: | E62 F34 F55 H63 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:cpaper:041&r=knm |
| By: | Roberto Dieci (University of Bologna); Xue-Zhong He (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This chapter surveys the state-of-art of heterogeneous agent models (HAMs) in finance using a jointly theoretical and empirical analysis, combined with numerical and Monte Carlo analysis from the latest development in computational finance. It provides supporting evidence on the explanatory power of HAMs to various stylized facts and market anomalies through model calibration, estimation, and economic mechanisms analysis. It presents a unified framework in continuous time to study the impact of historical price information on price dynamics, profitability and optimality of fundamental and momentum trading. It demonstrates how HAMs can help to understand stock price co-movements and to build evolutionary CAPM. It also introduces a new HAMs perspective on house price dynamics and an integrate approach to study dynamics of limit order markets. The survey provides further insights into the complexity and efficiency of financial markets and policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneity; bounded rationality; heterogeneous agent-based models; stylized facts; asset pricing; housing bubbles; limit order markets; information efficiency; comovement |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:rpaper:389&r=knm |
| By: | Villatoro S., Pablo; Cecchini, Simone |
| Abstract: | A lo largo de la última década y media, los países de América Latina han implementado un número creciente de programas de transferencias condicionadas y de pensiones sociales. Con el fin de mejorar las evaluaciones y fomentar la transparencia, en este documento se analizan las discrepancias entre encuestas de hogares y registros administrativos en la región con respecto a la cobertura alcanzada y los montos de las transferencias entregados por estos programas no contributivos de protección social. De manera consistente con los hallazgos provenientes de países desarrollados, se encuentra que las encuestas tienden a captar menos perceptores e ingresos totales transferidos que los registros. De este modo, si los registros están correctos, las mediciones basadas en encuestas subestiman el alcance de las transferencias no contributivas y podrían subestimar su impacto sobre la reducción de la pobreza monetaria, y por ende sobreestimar la incidencia de la pobreza en los países de la región. |
| Keywords: | SEGURIDAD SOCIAL, INGRESOS, PROGRAMAS DE ACCION, MEDICION, ENCUESTAS, ESTADISTICAS SOCIALES, SOCIAL SECURITY, INCOME, PROGRAMMES OF ACTION, MEASUREMENT, SURVEYS, SOCIAL STATISTICS |
| Date: | 2018–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col027:43642&r=knm |
| By: | Montt, Guillermo E. |
| Abstract: | Air pollution affects workers ability to work by damaging their own health, but also by damaging the health of their dependents. This paper draws on 20 years of air pollution and employment data from Santiago, Chile, a highly polluted metropolis, particularly in fall and winter months. The paper finds that though air pollution does not reduce overall hours worked, it does so for women and particularly for women with children. A week with pollution at 100 µg/m3, common for Santiago, doubles the gender difference in working hours. It is hypothesised that children, unable to go to school, must stay home and cared for. Findings do not hold for elderly care, probably reflecting the fact that both sick and healthy dependent elderly are cared for at home and their main family caregiver is generally out of the labour force to begin with. These findings suggest that air pollution may contribute to gender inequality through the gendered-biased distribution of care responsibilities. Pollution brings to evidence gender inequalities in care and, given the gendered nature of care and the geographic distribution of pollution, contributes to enhance gender and geographic labour market inequalities. Environmental policy is agender equality policy as well. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987492302676&r=knm |
| By: | Aguiar, Mark (Princeton University); Amador, Manuel (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | We establish that creditor beliefs regarding future borrowing can be self-fulfilling, leading to multiple equilibria with markedly different debt accumulation patterns. We characterize such indeterminacy in the Eaton-Gersovitz sovereign debt model augmented with long maturity bonds. Two necessary conditions for the multiplicity are: (i) the government is more impatient than foreign creditors, and (ii) there are deadweight losses from default; both are realistic and standard assumptions in the quantitative literature. The multiplicity is dynamic and stems from the self-fulfilling beliefs of how future creditors will price bonds; long maturity bonds are therefore a crucial component of the multiplicity. We introduce a third party with deep pockets to discuss the policy implications of this source of multiplicity and identify the potentially perverse consequences of traditional “lender of last resort” policies. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt; Self-fulfilling debt crises; Debt dilution; Multiple equilibria |
| JEL: | F34 |
| Date: | 2018–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:565&r=knm |
| By: | Xiaofei Lu; Fr\'ed\'eric Abergel |
| Abstract: | Market making is one of the most important aspects of algorithmic trading, and it has been studied quite extensively from a theoretical point of view. The practical implementation of so-called "optimal strategies" however suffers from the failure of most order book models to faithfully reproduce the behaviour of real market participants. This paper is twofold. First, some important statistical properties of order driven markets are identified, advocating against the use of purely Markovian order book models. Then, market making strategies are designed and their performances are compared, based on simulation as well as backtesting. We find that incorporating some simple non-Markovian features in the limit order book greatly improves the performances of market making strategies in a realistic context. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.05101&r=knm |
| By: | Napalang, Ma. Sheilah G.; Agatep, Pia May, G.; Navarro, Adoracion, M.; Detros, Keith, C. |
| Abstract: | Road funds like the Motor Vehicle User's Charge (MVUC) fund in the Philippines are earmarked funds that ensure a stable flow of resources, particularly for public road development projects. However, shortcomings from project identification to fund disbursement hamper effective implementation of the MVUC funding scheme. In assessing the different MVUC processes, this paper finds that transparency and efficiency in collection should be improved through automation and accurate recording. Project identification and investment programming must also adhere to the recommended procedures in the operating manual. As the study finds indications of fund underutilization, it suggests accelerating fund utilization through advance project development and investment programming. Looking at five MVUC-funded projects, it observes that only one of the five projects had an impact monitoring system. Nevertheless, findings from field visits and interviews with beneficiaries reveal that there are positive benefits from the MVUC mechanism. A closer look at successful cases in other countries also reveals good practices that are worth noting. |
| Keywords: | public finance, Philippines, road fund, earmarking, MVUC, transportation, motor vehicle inspection system, program assessment |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:rps_2018-01&r=knm |
| By: | Lance A. Fisher (Macquarie University); Hyeon?seung Huh (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a method to impose a long?run restriction in an instrumental variables (IV) framework in a SVAR which is comprised of both I(1) and I(0) variables when the shock associated with one of the I(0) variables is made transitory. This is the identification which is utilized in the small open economy SVAR that we take from the literature. The method is combined with a recently developed sign restrictions approach which can be applied in an IV setting. We then consider an alternate identification in this SVAR which makes the shocks associated with all of the I(0) variables transitory. In this case, we show that another method can be used to impose the long?run restrictions. The results from both methods are reported for the SVARs estimated with Canadian data. |
| Keywords: | sign restrictions, long?run parametric restrictions, IV estimation, algorithms, generated coefficients, small open economy, Canada |
| JEL: | C32 C36 C51 F41 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2018rwp-124&r=knm |
| By: | Cerami, Alfio |
| Abstract: | This article looks into the night lights of North Korea and their relationship to prosperity shining. The first introductory section discusses the political economy of North Korea. It highlights its strengths and shortcomings. The second section introduces to new methods of geo-spatial micro and macro econometric analysis. The following night lights analysis is based on near real-time big data. It includes high-resolution remote-sensing and satellite imagery from the NASA (Earth Obervatory) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the Suomi NPP satellite. The third and fourth section addresses important issues related to North Korea's prices, co-optation and mobilization of anger. The final section deal with problems in public policy administration. |
| Keywords: | North Korea, Varieties of Capitalism, Night Lights, Satellite Imagery, Political Economy, public policy administration, buyngjing line. |
| JEL: | C1 F1 F5 O11 O12 P2 |
| Date: | 2018–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87281&r=knm |
| By: | Peter Kondor; Adam Zawadowski |
| Abstract: | We study a capital reallocation problem in which investors can enter into a new market where they compete with each other in identifying the best deals. While ex ante investors are uncertain about their relative advantage in identifying the best deals, they can devote costly resources to learning about their relative advantage in a fully flexible way. We find that investors might allocate too much or too little capital to the new market. Increasing competition between investors induces them to learn more, shifting the distribution of entrants towards those with a relative advantage. However, competition does not change overall entry, so it does not affect the efficiency of capital allocation. Thus, learning induced by competition turns out to be wasteful and welfare decreasing. Allowing investors to learn in a fully flexible way - as opposed to requiring Gaussian signals - is what makes our argument transparent. We study several extension. |
| Date: | 2018–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ceu:econwp:2018_4&r=knm |
| By: | de Ferra, Sergio; Romei, Federica |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the global fi nancial crisis, sovereign default risk and the zero lower bound have limited the ability of policy-makers in the European monetary union to achieve their stabilization objective. This paper investigates the interaction between sovereign default risk and the conduct of monetary policy, when borrowers can act strategically and they share with their lenders a single currency in a monetary union. We address this question in an endogenous sovereign default model of heterogeneous countries in a monetary union, where the monetary authority may be constrained by the zero lower bound. We uncover three main results. First, in normal times, debtors have a stronger incentive to default to induce more expansionary monetary policy. Second, the zero lower bound, or constraints on monetary policy, may act as a disciplining device to enforce repayment of sovereign debt. Third, sovereign default risk induces countries with a preference for tight monetary policy to accept a laxer policy stance. These results help to shed light on the recent European experience of high default risk, expansionary monetary policy and low nominal interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous Countries; monetary union; sovereign default; zero lower bound |
| JEL: | F34 F42 H63 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12976&r=knm |
| By: | Torfs, Wouter |
| Abstract: | This EIF Working Paper elaborates on the most recent update of the EIF SME Access to Finance (ESAF) Index, a composite indicator used to monitor SME external financing markets in the 28 EU countries. The current update, using latest available data, constitutes the fifth iteration of this exercise. The paper is used to provide some background information underlying the aggregate ESAF results, by analysing its four subindices and their subindicators and focussing on a select number of individual results. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eifwps:201849&r=knm |
| By: | Hausmann, Ricardo; Hinz, Julian; Yildirim, Muhammed A. |
| Abstract: | Venezuela has seen an unprecedented exodus of people in recent months. In response to a dramatic economic downturn in which inflation is soaring, oil production tanking, and a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding, many Venezuelans are seeking refuge in neighboring countries. However, the lack of official numbers on emigration from the Venezuelan government, and receiving countries largely refusing to acknowledge a refugee status for affected people, it has been difficult to quantify the magnitude of this crisis. In this note we document how we use data from the social media service Twitter to measure the emigration of people from Venezuela. Using a simple statistical model that allows us to correct for a sampling bias in the data, we estimate that up to 2,9 million Venezuelans have left the country in the past year. |
| Keywords: | migration,social media |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2106&r=knm |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O.; Grosfeld, Irena; Grosjean, Pauline; Voigtländer, Nico; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina |
| Abstract: | We exploit a unique historical setting to study the long-run effects of forced migration on investment in education. After World War II, the Polish borders were redrawn, resulting in large-scale migration. Poles were forced to move from the Kresy territories in the East (taken over by the USSR) and were resettled mostly to the newly acquired Western Territories, from which Germans were expelled. We combine historical censuses with newly collected survey data to show that, while there were no pre-WWII differences in education, Poles with a family history of forced migration are significantly more educated today. Descendants of forced migrants have on average one extra year of schooling, driven by a higher propensity to finish secondary or higher education. This result holds when we restrict ancestral locations to a subsample around the former Kresy border and include fixed effects for the destination of migrants. As Kresy migrants were of the same ethnicity and religion as other Poles, we bypass confounding factors of other cases of forced migration. We show that labor market competition with natives and selection of migrants are also unlikely to drive our results. Survey evidence suggests that forced migration led to a shift in preferences, away from material possessions and towards investment in a mobile asse - human capital. The effects persist over three generations. |
| Keywords: | Forced Migration; Human Capital; Poland; Uprootedness |
| JEL: | D74 I25 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12975&r=knm |
| By: | Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses human development thresholds at which mobile banking mitigates poverty and inequality in 93 developing countries for the year 2011. Mobile banking entails: ‘mobile used to pay bills’ and ‘mobile used to receive/send money’, while the modifying policy indicator is the human development index (HDI). The empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions. A summary of the findings shows that with increasing human development: (i) ‘mobiles used to pay bills’ contribute to reducing inequality in countries at the bottom and top ends of the inequality distribution, while (ii) ‘mobiles used to receive/send money’ have an appealing role in promoting inclusive development in all poverty distributions, with the exception of the top-end or 90th decile. The modifying thresholds of the HDI vary from 0.542 to 0.632 and 0.333 to 0.705 in inequality and poverty specifications, respectively. The relevance of the findings is discussed in light of the current transition from Millennium Development Goals to Sustainable Development Goals. |
| Keywords: | Mobile banking, Quality of growth, poverty, inequality |
| JEL: | G20 O40 I10 I20 I32 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:18/022&r=knm |
| By: | Pierluigi, Beatrice; Sondermann, David |
| Abstract: | This occasional paper reviews the macroeconomic developments in the euro area countries over the past 20 years. It analyses the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in the first decade of the EMU and their unwinding during the second decade. It shows that while flow imbalances have been corrected to a large extent, stock imbalances persist. The presence of large stock imbalances implies that the adjustment process needs to continue in the years to come. Accordingly, this paper reviews the national responses so far and the importance of well-functioning national economic structures for facilitating the adjustment process within the EMU. It shows that national structural policies are able to stimulate the supply side of the economy, increase adjustment capacity and mitigate the adverse growth effects of high debt and deleveraging. Finally, it gives an overview of the European response to address macroeconomic imbalances, i.e. the establishment of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP). The MIP has contributed to increasing the general attention given to macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area and to the critical role that structural reforms play in facilitating their adjustment. Looking forward, further steps would appear to be warranted in order to move from greater awareness towards stronger ownership and implementation of reforms. JEL Classification: E02, F45, O52 |
| Keywords: | economic resilience, macroeconomic imbalance procedure, Monetary Union, stock and flow imbalances, structural reforms |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2018211&r=knm |
| By: | Sebastián Fleitas; Gautam Gowrisankaran; Anthony Lo Sasso |
| Abstract: | We evaluate reclassification risk and adverse selection in the small group insurance market from a period before ACA community rating regulations. Using detailed individual-level data from a large insurer, we find a pass through of 5-43% from expected health risk to premiums. This limited reclassification risk cannot be explained by market power or search frictions but may be due to implicit long-term contracts. We find no evidence of adverse selection generated by reclassification risk. The observed pricing policy adds $2,346 annually in consumer welfare over 10 years relative to experience rating. Community rating would not increase consumer welfare substantially. |
| JEL: | I13 L13 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24663&r=knm |
| By: | Liju Fan (Office of Financial Research); Mark D. Flood (Office of Financial Research) |
| Abstract: | We consider the challenges and benefits of ontologies for information management for regulatory reporting from bank holding companies (BHCs). Many BHCs, especially the largest and most complex firms, have multiple federal supervisors who oversee a diverse array of subsidiaries. This creates a federated data management problem that disperses information across many firms and regulators. We prototype an ontology for the Federal Reserve’s public National Information Center (NIC) database. The NIC identifies all BHCs, their subsidiaries, and the ownership and control relationships among them. It is a basic official source on the structure of the industry. A formal ontology can capture this expert-curated knowledge in a coherent, structured format. This could assure data integrity and enable non-experts to more readily integrate and analyze data about complex organizations. We test the design and development of federated prototype ontologies in the Web Ontology Language (OWL) to provide and integrate the NIC data with precise semantics for transparency and consistency. Our preliminary results indicate that this is feasible in practice for data search and analysis, and that the ontologies can facilitate semantic integration and improve the integrity of data and metadata. |
| Keywords: | financial regulation, data integration, knowledge representation, ontologies, Web Ontology Language (OWL), data integrity, bank holding companies |
| Date: | 2018–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:discus:18-01&r=knm |
| By: | Rabia Khan (OECD); Karolina Socha-Dietrich (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Poor adherence to medications affects approximately half of the patient population, leading to severe health complications, premature deaths, and an increased use of healthcare services. The three most prevalent chronic conditions – diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidaemia – stand out regarding the magnitude of avoidable health complications, mortality, and healthcare costs. There are three broad reasons behind these low rates of adherence to chronic disease medications. Firstly,the problem of poor adherence has rarely been explicitly included in national health policy agendas. Secondly, interventions tend to attribute the problem exclusively to patients, while the evidence suggests that health system characteristics – in particular the quality of patient-provider interaction, procedures for refilling prescriptions, or out-of-pocket costs – are lead drivers. Thirdly, patients with chronic conditions frequently feel left out of the decision about their therapy and are inclined to rebuff. This paper identifies enablers that are needed for improving adherence to medication at the system level. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2018–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaad:105-en&r=knm |
| By: | Meenagh, David (Cardiff Business School); Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School); Yang, Xiaoliang (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of wealth inequality on UK economic growth in recent decades with a heterogeneous-agent growth model where agents can enhance individual productivity growth by undertaking entrepreneurship. The model assumes wealthy people are more able to afford the costs of entrepreneurship. Wealth concentration therefore stimulates entrepreneurship among the rich and so aggregate growth, whose fruits in turn are largely captured by the rich. This process creates a mechanism by which inequality and growth are correlated. The model is estimated and tested by indirect inference and is not rejected. Policy-makers face a trade-off between redistribution and growth. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous-agent Model, Entrepreneurship, Aggregate Growth, Wealth Inequality, Redistribution, Indirect Inference |
| JEL: | E10 C63 O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2018/17&r=knm |
| By: | Ewout Depauw; Deborah Oxley |
| Abstract: | Does adult stature capture conditions at birth or at some other stage in the growth cycle? Anthropometrics is lauded as a method for capturing net nutritional status over all the growing years. However, it is frequently assumed that conditions at birth were most influential. Was this true for historical populations? This paper examines the heights of Belgian men born between 1800-76 to tease apart which moments of growth were most sensitive to disruption and reflected in final heights. It exploits two proximate crises in 1846-49 and 1853-56 as shocks that permit age effects to be revealed. These are affirmed through a study of food prices and death rates. Both approaches suggest a shift of the critical moment away from the first few years of life and towards the adolescent growth spurt as the most influential on terminal stature. Furthermore, just as height is accumulated over the growing years, conditions influencing growth need to be understood cumulatively. Economic conditions at the time of birth were not explanatory, but their collective effects from ages 11 to 18 years were strongly influential. Then, both health and nutrition mattered, in shifting degrees. Teenagers, not toddlers, should be our guides to the past. |
| Keywords: | child growth, crisis effects, early-life health, height, nutrition, prisoners, puberty |
| Date: | 2017–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_157&r=knm |
| By: | S Anukriti (Boston College); Sungoh Kwon (University of Connecticut); Nishith Prakash (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how traditional marriage market institutions a˙ect households’ financial decisions. We study how bride-to-groom marriage payments, i.e., dowries, influence saving behavior in rural India. Exploiting variation in firstborn gender and heterogeneity in dowry amounts across marriage markets, we find that the prospect of paying higher dowry increases household savings, which are primarily financed through increased paternal labor supply. This is the first paper that highlights this alternative motive for savings in dowry-paying societies. However, we find no impacts of dowry expectations on son-preferring fertility behaviors and investments in girls. |
| Keywords: | Household Savings, Dowry, Marriage Payments, India, Labor Supply, Fertility, Sex Ratio, Child Investments |
| JEL: | J1 D14 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2018-09&r=knm |
| By: | R. Scott Hacker; Abdulnasser Hatemi-J |
| Abstract: | The issue of model selection in applied research is of vital importance. Since the true model in such research is not known, which model should be used from among various potential ones is an empirical question. There might exist several competitive models. A typical approach to dealing with this is classic hypothesis testing using an arbitrarily chosen significance level based on the underlying assumption that a true null hypothesis exists. In this paper we investigate how successful this approach is in determining the correct model for different data generating processes using time series data. An alternative approach based on more formal model selection techniques using an information criterion or cross-validation is suggested and evaluated in the time series environment via Monte Carlo experiments. This paper also explores the effectiveness of deciding what type of general relation exists between two variables (e.g. relation in levels or relation in first differences) using various strategies based on hypothesis testing and on information criteria with the presence or absence of unit roots. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1805.08991&r=knm |
| By: | Tolulope Fadina; Ariel Neufeld; Thorsten Schmidt |
| Abstract: | We develop a one-dimensional notion of affine processes under parameter uncertainty, which we call non-linear affine processes. This is done as follows: given a set of parameters for the process, we construct a corresponding non-linear expectation on the path space of continuous processes. By a general dynamic programming principle we link this non-linear expectation to a variational form of the Kolmogorov equation, where the generator of a single affine process is replaced by the supremum over all corresponding generators of affine processes with parameters in the parameter set. This non-linear affine process yields a tractable model for Knightian uncertainty, especially for modelling interest rates under ambiguity. We then develop an appropriate Ito-formula, the respective term-structure equations and study the non-linear versions of the Vasicek and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. Thereafter we introduce the non-linear Vasicek-CIR model. This model is particularly suitable for modelling interest rates when one does not want to restrict the state space a priori and hence the approach solves this modelling issue arising with negative interest rates. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.02912&r=knm |
| By: | Omid Karami; Mina Mahmoudi |
| Abstract: | Tariff liberalization and its impact on tax revenue is an important consideration for developing countries, because they are increasingly facing the difficult task of implementing and harmonizing regional and international trade commitments. The tariff reform and its costs for Iranian government is one of the issues that are examined in this study. Another goal of this paper is, estimating the cost of trade liberalization. On this regard, imports value of agricultural sector in Iran in 2010 was analyzed according to two scenarios. For reforming nuisance tariff, a VAT policy is used in both scenarios. In this study, TRIST method is used. In the first scenario, imports' value decreased to a level equal to the second scenario and higher tariff revenue will be created. The results show that reducing the average tariff rate does not always result in the loss of tariff revenue. This paper is a witness that different forms of tariff can generate different amount of income when they have same level of liberalization and equal effect on producers. Therefore, using a good tariff regime can help a government to generate income when increases social welfare by liberalization. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.04238&r=knm |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Allegret; Hélène Raymond; Houda Rharrabti (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the influence of the recent European sovereign debt crisis on banks’ equity returns for 15 countries. Our data span the period December 14th 2007 - March 8th 2013 that encompasses several episodes of economic and financial turmoil since the collapse of the subprime credit market. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, we use an explicit multifactor model of equity returns extended with a sovereign risk factor. Second, we adopt a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) framework that allows for an endogenous definition of crisis periods and captures the changes in parameters associated with shift contagion. We find that the negative impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on banks’ equity returns has been mostly confined to European banks, whereas U.S. banks appear to be unharmed by its direct impact and may even have benefited from it. Besides, we find some evidence of shift contagion across Europe. |
| Keywords: | Smooth Transition Regression model, Banks' equity returns, European sovereign debt crisis, Contagion, Interdependence |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01589269&r=knm |
| By: | Kea Tijdens |
| Abstract: | Collective bargaining is an important instrument in wage-setting processes, but lacks underpinning with empirical data. Little is known about what exactly is agreed upon in collective bargaining. Few countries maintain databases with coded collective agreements; and agreements are coded for different topics and levels of detail. Attempts to discuss bargaining results at EU level are hampered by the lack of systematic data-collection of agreements. Social partners perceive an increasing need for cross-country comparisons, i.e., because of growing importance of foreign direct investment in EU member states. Therefore, EU-level social partners in commerce, UNI Europa and EuroCommerce, have expressed their interest in a study of content of collective agreements negotiated by their members at national level. Barcom report 3 analyses the relationship between agreements’ content and sector-level characteristics, more specifically how bargaining outcomes of collective agreements are related to the sectoral bargaining systems in the 28 countries. Supported by the European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, VS/2016/0106 |
| Date: | 2018–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:25&r=knm |
| By: | Xue-Zhong He (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney); Lei Shi (Macquarie University); Marco Tolotti (Ca' Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | When traders are uncertain on being informed and make effort to reduce their uncertainty, we would expect an improvement in both the welfare and price efficiency. By considering the disutility of the effort, we characterize the non-cooperative information game on traders' decision of making effort through a Nash equilibrium and asset price through a noisy rational expectation equilibrium. We show that making effort to be informed is harmful for social welfare. Also improving market efficiency is always at the cost of welfare reduction. Therefore, with the disutility of making effort to reduce the uncertainty on being informed, social welfare can be improved when traders make less effort, and more importantly, social welfare and price efficiency cannot be improved simultaneously. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty and effort; Nash equilibrium; endogenous information; asset pricing; efficiency; and social welfare |
| JEL: | G02 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:rpaper:391&r=knm |
| By: | Hollmayr, Josef |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the sustainability of fiscal debt contingent on fiscal policy operating in two fiscal regimes. The first regime is characterized by active policy (not reacting to debt) and the other by passive fiscal policy (reacting to debt). The average duration for which either regime can be pursued in order to arrive at a long-run stable solution is dependent on the steady-state debt-to-GDP ratio and thus determines the cutoff point beyond which debt is non-stationary. We find that the longer an active policy regime is in force or, equivalently, the more likely fiscal policy is to remain in this regime, the lower the steady state debt-to-GDP ratio must be. This has repercussions for the overall business cycle, implying a higher volatility of inflation and output the longer fiscal policy is active for any given equilibrium debt-to-GDP level. Using the Markov-switching DSGE-model as the data generating process it is possible to apply the test by Bohn (1998) and find that it is prone to type 2 errors. |
| Keywords: | DSGE,Markov-Switching,Fiscal Policy,Debt Sustainability |
| JEL: | C62 E61 E62 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:112018&r=knm |
| By: | Walter, Paul; Weimer, Katja |
| Abstract: | Rising poverty and inequality increases the risk of social instability in countries all around the world. For measuring poverty and inequality there exists a variety of statistical indicators. Estimating these indicators is trivial as long as the income variable is measured on a metric scale. However, estimation is not possible, using standard formulas, when the income variable is interval censored (or grouped), as in the German Microcensus. This is the case for numerous censuses due to confidentiality constraints or in order to decrease item non-response. To enable the estimation of statistical indicators in these scenarios, we propose an iterative kernel density algorithm that generates metric pseudo samples from the interval censored income variable. Based on these pseudo samples, poverty and inequality indicators are estimated. The standard errors of the indicators are estimated by a non-parametric bootstrap. Simulation results demonstrate that poverty and inequality indicators from interval censored data can be unbiasedly estimated by the proposed kernel density algorithm. Also the standard errors are correctly estimated by the non-parametric bootstrap. The kernel density algorithm is applied in this work to estimate regional poverty and inequality indicators from German Microcensus data. The results show the regional distribution of poverty and inequality in Germany. |
| Keywords: | direct estimation,interval censored data,grouped data,poverty,inequality,kernel density estimation,German Microcensus |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201810&r=knm |
| By: | Eguia, Jon (Michigan State University, Department of Economics); Xefteris, Dimitrios (University of Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | Simple majority voting does not allow preference intensities to be expressed, and hence fails to implement choice rules that take them into account. A vote-buying mechanism, instead, permits preference intensities to be revealed since each agent can buy any quantity of votes x to cast for an alternative of her choosing at a cost c(x) and the outcome is the most voted alternative. In the context of binary decisions, we characterize the class of choice rules implemented by vote-buying mechanisms. Rules in this class can assign any weight to preference intensities and to the number of supporters for each alternative. |
| Keywords: | implementation; mechanism design; vote-buying; social welfare; utilitarianism; quadratic voting |
| JEL: | D61 D71 D72 |
| Date: | 2018–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:msuecw:2018_001&r=knm |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O. (University of Warwick); Grosfeld, Irena (Paris School of Economics); Grosjean, Pauline (UNSW); Voigtländer, Nico (UCLA); Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We exploit a unique historical setting to study the long-run effects of forced migration on investment in education. After World War II, the Polish borders were redrawn, resulting in large-scale migration. Poles were forced to move from the Kresy territories in the East (taken over by the USSR) and were resettled mostly to the newly acquired Western Territories, from which Germans were expelled. We combine historical censuses with newly collected survey data to show that, while there were no pre-WWII differences in education, Poles with a family history of forced migration are significantly more educated today. Descendants of forced migrants have on average one extra year of schooling, driven by a higher propensity to finish secondary or higher education. This result holds when we restrict ancestral locations to a subsample around the former Kresy border and include fixed effects for the destination of migrants. As Kresy migrants were of the same ethnicity and religion as other Poles, we bypass confounding factors of other cases of forced migration. We show that labor market competition with natives and selection of migrants are also unlikely to drive our results. Survey evidence suggests that forced migration led to a shift in preferences, away from material possessions and towards investment in a mobile asset – human capital. The effects persist over three generations |
| Keywords: | Poland ; Forced Migration ; Uprootedness ; Human Capital |
| JEL: | N33 N34 D74 I25 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1164&r=knm |
| By: | Boskovic, Branko; Chakravorty, Ujjayant; Pelli, Martino; Risch, Anna |
| Abstract: | Fuelwood collection is often cited as the most important cause of deforestation in developing countries. Use of fuelwood in cooking is a leading cause of indoor air pollution. Using household data from India, we show that households located farther away from the forest spend more time collecting. Distant households are likely to sell more fuelwood and buy less. That is, lower access to forests increases fuelwood collection and sale. This counter-intuitive behavior is triggered by two factors: lower access to forests (a) increases the fixed costs of collecting, which in turn leads to more collection; and (b) drives up local fuelwood prices, which makes collection and sale more profitable. We quantify both these effects. Using our estimates we show that a fifth of the fuelwood collected is consumed outside of rural areas, in nearby towns and cities. Our results imply that at the margin, fuelwood scarcity may lead to increased collection and sale, and exacerbate forest degradation. |
| Keywords: | energy access; cooking fuels; deforestation; forest cover; fuelwood collection |
| JEL: | D10 O13 Q42 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:32692&r=knm |
| By: | Ana Fontoura Gouveia; Christian Osterhold |
| Abstract: | Productivity growth is slowing down among OECD countries, coupled with increased misallocation of resources. A recent strand of literature focuses on the role of non-viable firms (“zombie firms”) to explain these developments. Using a rich firm-level dataset for one of the OECD countries with the largest drop in barriers to firm exit and restructure, we assess the role of zombies on firm dynamics, both in the extensive and intensive margins. We confirm the results on the high prevalence of zombie firms, significantly less productive than their healthy counterparts and thus dragging aggregate productivity down. Moreover, while we find evidence of positive selection within zombies, with the most productive restructuring and the least productive exiting, we also show that the zombies' productivity threshold for exit is much lower than that of nonzombies, allowing them to stay in the market, distorting competition and sinking resources. Zombie prevalence curbs the growth of viable firms, in particular the most productive, harming the intra-sectoral resource reallocation. We show that a reduction in exit and restructuring barriers promotes a more effective exit channel and fosters the restructuring of the most productive. These results highlight the role of public policy in addressing zombies' prevalence, fostering a more efficient resource allocation and enabling productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | Firm Dynamics, Insolvency Frameworks, Labor Productivity, Resource Allocation, Zombie Firms |
| JEL: | D24 E22 E24 G33 J24 L25 |
| Date: | 2018–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaac:13-en&r=knm |
| By: | Robert Allen |
| Abstract: | In the 1980s, Lindert and Williamson famously revised the social tables of King, Massie, Colquhoun, Smee, and Baxter that traverse the British industrial revolution. This paper extends their work in three directions: Servants are removed from middle and upper class households in the tables of King, Massie, and Colquhoun and tallied separately, estimates are made for the same tables of the number and incomes of women and children employed in the various occupations, income estimates are broken down into rents, profits, and employment income. These extensions to the tables allow variables to be computed that can be checked against independent estimates as a validation exercise. The tables are retabulated in a standard format to highlight the changing social structure of Britain during the industrial revolution. Changes in the social structure, the evolution of incomes by classes, and the pace of structural transformation are revealed. |
| Keywords: | social table, industrial revolution, national income, income distribution |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_146&r=knm |
| By: | Sohei Kaihatsu (Bank of Japan); Maiko Koga (Bank of Japan); Tomoya Sakata (Bank of Japan); Naoko Hara (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis, advanced economies have faced sluggish recoveries or long-lasting economic slowdowns. This experience has challenged the conventional dichotomy of business cycles and economic growth, which has long been central to macroeconomic analysis. Against this backdrop, we review the literature looking at the relationship between business cycles and economic growth. This study consists of three parts. First, we provide basic ideas about the relationship of business cycles and economic growth, and a simple empirical analysis on economic growth rates in advanced economies. Second, we survey studies which look at the effects of business cycles on economic growth. Specifically, we focus on hysteresis effects caused by labor market structure, firm activity and fiscal policy. Third, we review the literature looking at the effects of economic growth on business cycles, through mechanisms such as technological progress and population ageing. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles; economic growth; hysteresis |
| JEL: | E32 O40 |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp18e12&r=knm |
| By: | Chen, Si; Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah |
| Abstract: | The motivation value of confidence postulates that individual effort provision is increasing in beliefs on one's own productivity. This relationship also holds for overconfident individuals who have exaggerated productivity beliefs (motivation value of overconfidence). We present first empirical evidence on the existence of a motivation value of absolute overconfidence that many microeconomic models build on. Moreover, we document that debiasing information increases the accuracy of productivity beliefs of overconfident individuals but comes at the cost of diminished effort provision - a result that is of obvious relevance for many contexts such as labor relations or learning at school. As a further conceptual contribution, we offer a novel strategy for identifying significant overconfidence at the individual level. |
| Keywords: | overconfidence,effort provision,laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D91 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:291&r=knm |
| By: | Arkhipova, Alexandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Radchenko, Darya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Accepting the thesis that the political struggle is, to a large extent, a game the stake in which is the opportunity to impose on others its picture of the world as legitimate and generally accepted (P. Bourdieu), we can consider public actions devoted to pressing political issues as "moves" in this game, in which competing versions of the present, the past and the future are offered. The most explicit position of the group is expressed in the course of its public appearances (meetings, marches, etc.). The set of slogans, symbols, actions observed at every public action allows us to reconstruct the main narratives of the corresponding political force (party, movement). In the article, based on a quantitative analysis of the base of slogans and symbols collected on public actions in 2011-2016, it is determined how various political forces synthesize in their narratives and symbols the conflicting historical experience of the country. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051811&r=knm |
| By: | Andrzej Toroj |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the construction of multisector-multiregion input-output tables by using spatial econometric methods. I demonstrate that, under reasonable assumptions, the problem of finding Leontief's technical coeffecients can be formulated as a modified multi-equation spatial Durbin model and the missing parameters can be estimated via maximum likelihood. The resulting coefficients are computed as a function of country-wide coeffiecients, as well as distance and regional-sectorial data on value added. The statistical performance of the model is scrutinized and the method is illustrated with simulations of regional (NUTS-3 level) economic impact assessment - for generic companies located in Southern France, Germany and Poland. |
| Keywords: | input-output modelling, GRIT(generation of regional input-output tables), spatial econometrics, SDM (spatial Durbin model), regional EIA (economic impact assessment) |
| JEL: | C31 C67 R12 R15 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2018037&r=knm |
| By: | Jagtiani, Julapa (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Maingi, Ramain Quinn (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the shrinking community banking sector and the impact on local small business lending (SBL) in the context of mergers and acquisitions. From all mergers that involved community banks, we examine the varying impact on SBL depending on the local presence of the acquirers’ and the targets’ operations prior to acquisitions. Our results indicate that, relative to counties where the acquirer had operations before the merger, local SBL declined significantly more in counties where only the target had operations before the merger. This result holds even after controlling for the general local SBL market or local economic trends. These findings are consistent with an argument that SBL funding has been directed (after the mergers) toward the acquirers’ counties. We find even stronger evidence during and after the financial crisis. Overall, we find evidence that local community banks have continued to play an important role in providing funding to local small businesses. The absence of local community banks that became a target of a merger or acquisition by nonlocal acquirers has, on average, led to local SBL credit gaps that were not filled by the rest of the banking sector. |
| Keywords: | community banks; small business lending; bank mergers |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G34 |
| Date: | 2018–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:18-18&r=knm |
| By: | Piotr Dworczak (Stanford University); Scott Duke Kominers (Harvard Business School); Mohammad Akbarpour (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | When macroeconomic tools fail to respond to wealth inequality optimally, regulators can still seek to mitigate inequality within individual markets. A social planner with distributional preferences might distort allocative efficiency to achieve a more desirable split of surplus, for example, by setting higher prices when sellers are poor--effectively, using the market as a redistributive tool. In this paper, we seek to understand how to design goods markets optimally in the presence of inequality. Using a mechanism design approach, we uncover the constrained Pareto frontier by identifying the optimal trade-off between allocative efficiency and redistribution in a setting where the second welfare theorem fails because of private information and participation constraints. We find that competitive equilibrium allocation is not always optimal. Instead, when there is substantial inequality across sides of the market, the optimal design uses a tax-like mechanism, introducing a wedge between the buyer and seller prices, and redistributing the resulting surplus to the poorer side of the market via lump-sum payments. When there is significant within-side inequality, meanwhile, it may be optimal to impose price controls even though doing so induces rationing. |
| Keywords: | optimal mechanism design, redistribution, Inequality, welfare theorems |
| JEL: | D61 D63 D82 H21 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2018-037&r=knm |
| By: | Blatter, Joachim |
| Abstract: | How can we democratically govern a world of high levels of cross border flows and transnational (inter)dependencies? I offer a new approach that focusses on the horizontal expansion of national demoi and on granting "consociated citizens" voting rights and partisan representation in the parliaments of nation states. The first two sections point to failed attempts to democratize a vertically layered system of governance, and to pitfalls of proposals to strengthen the role of national parliaments in inter- and supranational politics. Afterwards, I turn to the horizontal alternative. In the first major section, I introduce membership principles that provide the groundwork for a horizontal and differentiated expansion of national demoi. I start with pointing to the fact that the spread of multiple citizenship is leading to an emerging system of horizontally overlapping demoi and that we should realize the potential, but also the need to explicitly constitutionalize such a system. Next, I show how fuzzy set theory paves the way to reconceptualize political inclusion in such a way that inclusion can take place in the form of graded membership. Furthermore, in order to transform these conceptual innovations into a normatively adequate reform proposal, I rehabilitate and redefine proportional equality and proportional representation. Finally, I demonstrate how the realignment of the boundary of the kratos and the boundary of the demos of nation states can be organized in a "demoicratic" way that includes two steps: First, representatives of the peoples of two or more nation states sign "joint declarations of interdependence" and recognize each other reciprocally as "consociated peoples and states." Second, individual members of consociated peoples sign "declaration of interest and identification," and thereby register as "consociated citizens" of the other participating nation states. In the second major section, I present electoral principles that make a system of horizontally overlapping transnational democracies feasible and productive for dealing with the challenges of an (inter)dependent world. These principles aim at strengthening "responsible party government," the preeminent form of democratic governance within liberal nation states that is currently threatened by the mutually enforcing trends towards international technocracy and national populism. |
| Keywords: | transnational democracy,citizenship,voting,parties and representation,horizontally overlapping and graded membership in national demoi,Transnationale Demokratie,Bürgerschaft,Wahlen,Parteien und Repräsentanten,horizontal überlappende und abgestufte Mitgliedschaften in den politischen Gemeinschaften von Nationalstaaten |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbtci:spiv2018102&r=knm |
| By: | Rupayan Pal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Ada Wossink (University of Manchester); Prasenjit Banerjee (University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | We examine how endogenous social preferences could affect economic incentive design to encourage biodiversity protection on private land. A 'green' farmer may enjoy esteem from leading by example if there are few farmers who do the right thing. In contrast a farmer without social preferences ('brown' farmer) might merely tick the boxes and is expected to shirk from the desired environmental actions whenever possible unless this affects their reputation. We analyze the design of an incentive scheme that takes into account both types of farmers ('green' or 'brown') under asymmetric information about their true motivation. It follows that under perfect Bayesian equilibrium, the regulator can separate out the farmer types in a two-period setting by monitoring their voluntary conservation actions in response to payment in the first period. The optimal mechanism would be a mixture of a facilitation contract with small monetary incentive but high visibility to keep 'green' farmers interested and a higher monetary-incentive contract to attract the brown farmers. |
| Keywords: | Mechanism Design, Social Norm, Esteem, Motivation Crowding, Signalling, Public goods, Agriculture |
| JEL: | D03 Q57 Q58 D82 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2018-006&r=knm |
| By: | Francesca Di Iorio (Department of Epolitical Sciences, University of Naples Federico II); Maria Letizia Giorgetti (Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milano) |
| Abstract: | Global market concentration is the result of the interplay of different sub-markets. According to this view, empirical analysis on the role of concentration as an incentive or as a barrier to entry must be conducted on a sub-market level, where the sub-markets are identified as specific technological trajectories. In this paper we investigate the role of 3-digit submarket concentration in the US pharmaceutical sector in 1987-1998. We take into account several sources of potential entry deterrence including the relative company size to the largest incumbent firm and the number of competing products in each submarket. The estimates of a panel logit model show that a concentrated industry at submarket level seems to act like a barrier to entry. The relative company size is not significant while the number of competing products is significantly positive. |
| Keywords: | submarket concentration, pharmaceuticals, product launches, logit |
| JEL: | L25 L65 C23 C25 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0163&r=knm |
| By: | Kenny, Seán (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Turner, John D. (Queen's University Belfast) |
| Abstract: | Using a new biography of banks, we examine the stability of Irish banking from 1797 to 1826 by constructing a failure rate series. We find that the ultimate cause of the frequent and severe banking crises was the crisis-prone structure of the banking system, which was designed to benefit the political elite. There is little evidence to suggest that wildcat banking or the failure of the Bank of Ireland to act as a lender of last resort were to blame. We also find that the main economic effect of the episodic crises was major diminutions in the money supply. |
| Keywords: | banking crisis; bank failure; Ireland; partnership; wildcat banking; political economy of banking |
| JEL: | E42 G21 N13 N23 |
| Date: | 2018–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0176&r=knm |
| By: | TURKEŠ, Renata; SÖRENSEN, Kenneth; PALHAZI CUERVO, Daniel |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we describe the matheuristic we developed for the problem of pre-positioning emergency supplies that aims to increase disaster preparedness by making the relief items readily available to the people in need. To solve the pre-positioning problem is to develop a strategy that determines the location and size of storage facilities, the quantities of various types of emergency supplies stocked in each facility, and the distribution of the supplies to demand locations after an event, under uncertainty about demands, survival of pre-positioned supplies, and transportation network availability. The matheuristic employs iterated local search techniques to look for good location and inventory configurations, and uses CPLEX to optimize the aid distribution. Numerical experiments on a number of case studies and random instances demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the matheuristic, which is shown to be particularly useful for tackling larger instances that are intractable for exact solvers. The matheuristic can therefore be used by both academics and practitioners to further study the pre-positioning problem and to support the planning of pre-positioning strategies. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ant:wpaper:2018009&r=knm |
| By: | Nathan Faivre (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Dubois (Cedars-Sinai Medical Center); Naama Schwartz (Tel Aviv University [Tel Aviv]); Liad Mudrik (Tel Aviv University [Tel Aviv]) |
| Abstract: | Integrating objects with their context is a key step in the interpretation of complex visual scenes. Humans can do this very quickly, yet the brain mechanisms that mediate this ability are not yet understood. Here, we used functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) to measure brain activity while participants viewed visual scenes depicting a person performing an action with an object that was either congruent or incongruent with the scene. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed different activity for congruent compared to incongruent scenes in the lateral occipital complex, inferior temporal cortex, parahippocampal cortex, and prefrontal cortex, in line with existing models of scene processing. Importantly, and in contrast to previous studies, these activations could not be explained by task-induced conflicts. A secondary goal of this study was to examine whether object-context integration could occur in the absence of awareness, by comparing brain activity elicited by congruent vs. incongruent scenes that were suppressed from awareness using visual masking. We found no evidence for brain activity differentiating between congruent and incongruent invisible scenes. Overall, our results provide novel support for the roles of PHC and PFC in conscious object-context integration which cannot be explained by either low-level differences or task demands. Yet they further suggest that activity in these regions is decreased by visual masking to the point of becoming undetectable with our fMRI protocol. |
| Date: | 2017–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-01491342&r=knm |
| By: | Yi-Hsuan Chen, Cathy; Fengler, Matthias; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; Liu, Yanchu |
| Abstract: | We distill sentiment from a huge assortment of NASDAQ news articles by means of machine learning methods and examine its predictive power in single-stock option markets and equity markets. We provide evidence that single-stock options react to contemporaneous sentiment. Next, examining return predictability, we discover that while option variables indeed predict stock returns, sentiment variables add further informational content. In fact, both in a regression and a trading context, option variables orthogonalized to public and sentimental news are even more informative predictors of stock returns. Distinguishing further between overnight and trading-time news, we find the first to be more informative. From a statistical topic model, we uncover that this is attributable to the differing thematic coverage of the alternate archives. Finally, we show that sentiment disagreement commands a strong positive risk premium above and beyond market volatility and that lagged returns predict future returns in concentrated sentiment environments. |
| Keywords: | investor disagreement, option markets, overnight information, stock return predictability, textual sentiment, topic model, trading-time information |
| JEL: | C58 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2018:08&r=knm |
| By: | Federico A. Bugni; Ivan A. Canay; Azeem M. Shaikh |
| Abstract: | This paper studies inference in randomized controlled trials with covariate-adaptive randomization when there are multiple treatments. More specifically, we study inference about the average effect of one or more treatments relative to other treatments or a control. As in Bugni et al. (2018), covariate-adaptive randomization refers to randomization schemes that first stratify according to baseline covariates and then assign treatment status so as to achieve balance within each stratum. In contrast to Bugni et al. (2018), we not only allow for multiple treatments, but further allow for the proportion of units being assigned to each of the treatments to vary across strata. We first study the properties of estimators derived from a fully saturated linear regression, i.e., a linear regression of the outcome on all interactions between indicators for each of the treatments and indicators for each of the strata. We show that tests based on these estimators using the usual heteroskedasticity-consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance are invalid; on the other hand, tests based on these estimators and suitable estimators of the asymptotic variance that we provide are exact. For the special case in which the target proportion of units being assigned to each of the treatments does not vary across strata, we additionally consider tests based on estimators derived from a linear regression with strata fixed effects, i.e., a linear regression of the outcome on indicators for each of the treatments and indicators for each of the strata. We show that tests based on these estimators using the usual heteroskedasticity-consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance are conservative, but tests based on these estimators and suitable estimators of the asymptotic variance that we provide are exact. A simulation study illustrates the practical relevance of our theoretical results. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.04206&r=knm |
| By: | Rohan Best; Paul J. Burke |
| Abstract: | We investigate if greater electricity availability helps countries ascend to faster economic growth trajectories. This is an important question for many developing countries that are currently prioritizing infrastructure investments. Using cross-sectional and panel regressions with national-level decadal data, we find some evidence that electricity availability has a significant effect on subsequent economic growth. However, much of the effect disappears once suitable controls are included. We examine various dimensions of electricity availability, including electricity consumption quantity, generation capacity, residential access rate, and quality of electricity supply. It appears that electricity availability is best viewed as something that can be scaled up as economies grow rather than something that imposes binding constraints on subsequent economic growth. |
| Keywords: | electricity availability, electricity consumption, economic growth, development economics |
| JEL: | O47 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2018-30&r=knm |
| By: | José Estrada Hernández (Universidad de Oriente [Cuba]); María de Las Mercedes Ivonet Munder (Universidad de Oriente [Cuba]) |
| Abstract: | Economic security is a goal of comprehensive social protection, dimension of the policy of old age and key element in the quality of life. Its scope differs according to the degree of demographic transition, economic development and state protection goals. In Cuba through Law 105/08, monthly access to the minimum old-age pension is guaranteed. This paper proposes a structured index in eight dimensions and determined with the support of multivariate analysis and the applications of SPSS V.22, Which allows a methodological basis to address the public, integral and social management of aging. |
| Abstract: | La seguridad económica es meta de protección social integral, dimensión de la política de vejez y elemento clave en la calidad de vida. Su alcance difiere según sea el grado de transición demográfica, de desarrollo económico y metas de protección estatales. En Cuba mediante la ley 105/08 se garantiza el acceso mensual a la pensión mínima de vejez. Con el presente trabajo se propone un índice estructurado en ocho dimensiones y determinado con el apoyo del análisis multivariante y las aplicaciones del SPSS V.22, lo que posibilita una base metodológica para afrontar la gestión pública, integral y social del envejecimiento. |
| Date: | 2017–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01793800&r=knm |
| By: | Hatta, Tatsuo |
| Abstract: | In Japan, the court requires job restoration rather than a severance payment from a firm after it decides that a dismissal has been abusive. This results in a high settlement cost for termination. This paper makes two proposals for introducing severance payments to reduce settlement costs in Japan. The first applies to existing contracts and proposes to specify levels of severance payments that would replace the current job restoration requirement after the court determines that a case is abusive. The second applies to new employees either for a recently vacated position or a new position and proposes vacancy decontrol, which allows firms to set the levels of severance payments freely while also honoring the existing contracts. Within this category, this paper proposes government-assisted vacancy decontrol, a transitional measure, where the government sets a minimum level of statutory severance payment, which is equal to six months of wages for a worker who has worked for 20 years, following the Taiwan precedent. After the need for the transitional measure is dissolved, complete vacancy decontrol should be introduced, abolishing the statutory severance payment. We have proposed that even at this stage, the government should publicly set a default level of the severance payment, which a firm should observe unless an explicit agreement or contract stipulates otherwise. The government should immediately introduce some form of vacancy decontrol for senior workers who have already retired from a regular job. |
| Keywords: | Dismissal regulation, vacancy decontrol, severance payment, Taiwan, exit payment, job restoration requirement, lifetime employment, Ponzi scheme, rapid economic growth, incomplete contract, human capital investment, Labor Standard Act, unemployment insurance, employment-at-will, seniority-based wage system, J08, J38, J41, J48, J88, J83, K12, K31, K41, D61 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000142&r=knm |
| By: | Committee for Development Policy Secretariat |
| Abstract: | Least developed countries (LDCs) are characterized by limited productive capacities, which constrains their efforts towards structural transformation and sustainable development. At the same time, the actual policy choices countries that have graduated or have made significant progress towards graduation from the LDC category provide a wide range of lessons other LDCs and the international community can learn from. Whereas countries can be on different pathways towards graduation, a diverse set of social, macroeconomic, financial, agricultural and industrial policies can be effective. However, good development governance is the key factor for successfully expanding productive capacity. |
| Keywords: | Least developed countries, productive capacity, development governance, Angola, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Botswana, Cabo Verde, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Ghana, Maldives, Rwanda, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | O1 O2 O57 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:cpaper:037&r=knm |
| By: | Kenny, Seán; Turner, John D. |
| Abstract: | Using a new biography of banks, we examine the stability of Irish banking from 1797 to 1826 by constructing a failure rate series. We find that the ultimate cause of the frequent and severe banking crises was the crisis-prone structure of the banking system, which was designed to benefit the political elite. There is little evidence to suggest that wildcat banking or the failure of the Bank of Ireland to act as a lender of last resort were to blame. We also find that the main economic effect of the episodic crises was major diminutions in the money supply. |
| Keywords: | banking crisis,bank failure,Ireland,partnership,wildcat banking,political economy of banking |
| JEL: | G21 E42 N13 N23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201807&r=knm |
| By: | Shubhro Sarkar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Suchismita Tarafdar (Shiv Nadar University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we show that firms might get an additional strategic benefit from using marginal-cost-reducing investments in conjunction with a managerial incentive scheme. While both these instruments allow firms to \aggressively" participate in product market competition, we show that they act as strategic substitutes or complements depending on whether they are chosen simultaneously or sequentially under complete information. Given that the use of such instruments is inseparably linked with a Prisoner's Dilemma kind of situation, our analysis shows a way to mitigate such effects, through heir simultaneous use. |
| Keywords: | Strategic delegation, Cost-Reducing Investment, Strategic Substitutes, Strategic complements, Subgame perfection |
| JEL: | C72 L13 D43 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2018-008&r=knm |
| By: | Johannes Geyer; Peter Haan; Anna Hammerschmid; Michael Peters |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the labor market and distributional effects of an increase in the early retirement age (ERA) from 60 to 63 for women. We use a regression discontinuity design which exploits the immediate increase in the ERA between women born in 1951 and 1952. The analysis is based on the German micro census which includes about 370,000 households per year. We focus on heterogeneous labor market effects on the individual and on the household level and we study the distributional implications using net household income. In this respect we extend the previous literature which mainly studied employment effects on the individual level. Our results show sizable labor market effects which strongly differ by subgroups. We document larger employment effects for women who cannot rely on other income on the household level, e.g. women with a low income partner. The distributional analysis shows on average no significant effects on female or household income. This result holds as well for heterogeneous groups: Even for the most vulnerable groups, such as single women, women without higher education, or low partner income, we do not find significant reductions in income. One reason for this result is program substitution. |
| Keywords: | retirement age, pension reform, labor supply, early retirement, distributional effects, spillover effects, household |
| JEL: | J14 J18 J22 J26 H31 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1741&r=knm |
| By: | Elsa Valli; Amber Peterman; Melissa Hidrobo; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | There is increasing interest in understanding if social protection has the ability to foster social cohesion, particularly between refugees and host communities. Using an experimental evaluation of transfers, including cash, food and food vouchers to Colombian refugees and poor Ecuadorians in urban and peri-urban areas we examine if transfers resulted in changes in social cohesion measures. The evaluation was a cluster-randomized control trial examining a short-term programme implemented over six months by the World Food Programme. We examine six aggregate dimensions of social cohesion, derived from 33 individual indicators, in addition to an overall index of social cohesion. Overall results suggest that the programme contributed to integration of Colombians in the hosting community through increases in personal agency, attitudes accepting diversity, confidence in institutions, and social participation. However, while having no impact for the Ecuadorian population. There were no negative impacts of the programme on indicators or domains analysed. Although we are not able to specifically identify mechanisms, we hypothesize that these impacts are driven by joint targeting, messaging around social inclusion and through interaction between nationalities at mandated monthly nutrition trainings. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa959&r=knm |
| By: | Kehoe, Patrick J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Midrigan, Virgiliu (New York University); Pastorino, Elena (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | Modern business cycle theory focuses on the study of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that generate aggregate fluctuations similar to those experienced by actual economies. We discuss how this theory has evolved from its roots in the early real business cycle models of the late 1970s through the turmoil of the Great Recession four decades later. We document the strikingly different pattern of comovements of macro aggregates during the Great Recession compared to other postwar recessions, especially the 1982 recession. We then show how two versions of the latest generation of real business cycle models can account, respectively, for the aggregate and the cross-regional fluctuations observed in the Great Recession in the United States. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian models; Financial frictions; External validation |
| JEL: | E13 E32 E52 E61 |
| Date: | 2018–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:566&r=knm |
| By: | Taiki Kamei (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to discuss the significance of the vertically and horizontal integration focus on the textile companies in the Meiji Period. It has been widely accepted that the process was initiated by those formed as spinning companies, which later acquired the weaving sector by mergers and acquisitions because of recession. This paper is to show an alternative way of vertical integration of spinning and weaving processes in cotton industry in early Meiji Japan through a case study of the Kyoto Cotton Flannel Co., Ltd(the Kyomen). Cotton flannel is a finished cotton textile napped on side made to imitate wool flannel. Full-fledged, factory-based machine printing in Japan started to develop when the Kyomen was established in 1895. The Kyomen actively transferred technology for raising the nap of the cloth, dyeing and processing to European. The industry faced various quality problems caused by inexperience in machine printing technique and copper roller engraving. This study provide evidence that the Kyomen was the first Japanese company which overcame these challenges. It was worthwhile to note that the Kyomen achieve vertical integration process by acquisition of Kyoto Spinning Company. Since then, it internalized the spinning process and became able to improve the self-manufactured cotton yarn to fit in printing and napping. It made it possible to improve the quality of cotton flannels. When the competition in this industry is fierce after the Russo-Japanese War, the Kyomen was developing aggressive horizontal integration in order to break out of dependence on the sales cotton flannels. Although the Kyomen failed to finance them and went bankrupt in 1909, it filled an importance role in the rise of the machine textile printing industry in Japan. |
| Keywords: | vertical integration, technology transfer, machine textile printing, integrated spinning andweaving, Kyoto Nisijin |
| JEL: | N65 N75 N85 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1819&r=knm |
| By: | Effrosyni Diamantousi (Department of Economics, Concordia University); Eftichios Sartzetakis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Stefania Strantza (Department of Economics, Concordia University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the stability of International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) in an economy with trade. We extent the basic model of the IEAs by letting countries choose emission taxes and import tariffs as their policy instruments in order to manage climate change and control trade. We define the equilibrium of a three-stage emission game. In the first stage, each country decides whether or not to join the agreement. In the second stage, countries choose simultaneously - cooperatively or non-cooperatively - tariff and tax levels. In the third stage, taking countries’ decisions as given, firms compete a la Cournot in the product markets. Numerical analysis illustrates that the interaction between trade and environment policies is essential in enhancing cooperation. Contrary to the IEA model, stable agreements are larger and more efficient in reducing aggregate emissions and improving welfare. Moreover, the analysis shows that the size of a stable agreement increases in the number of countries affected by the externalities. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Agreements. |
| JEL: | D6 Q5 C7 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2018_07&r=knm |
| By: | Christian A. Vossler (Department of Economics, University of Tennessee); Ewa Zawojska (Faculty of Economic Sciences University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence accumulated over several decades suggests that survey-based welfare measures for public goods can be very sensitive to the format of the value elicitation, e.g., an up-or-down vote or an open-ended willingness-to-pay question. The underlying drivers of these effects remain poorly understood. As myriad formats are employed in practice, this raises concerns for both academics and policymakers. We design and implement a controlled experiment to cleanly test for elicitation effects among a set of four oft-used formats: single binary choice, double-bounded binary choice, payment card, and open-ended. The experiment retains important field context properties (e.g., the funding of a public, environmental good) and varies only the elicitation format, while holding fixed ancillary characteristics of the elicitations (such as framing, decision rule, payment method, and incentive compatibility). We find all formats lead to statistically identical welfare estimates. On one hand, this evidence suggests that variance in design characteristics other than the elicitation format may explain some prior results. On the other, to the extent that characteristics of our elicitations can be mirrored in the field, this offers a pathway for mitigating elicitation effects. |
| Keywords: | contingent valuation; mechanism design; experiment; voting; elicitation effects; convergent validity |
| JEL: | Q51 C92 D82 H41 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ten:wpaper:2018-01&r=knm |
| By: | Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | The worldwide move to constrain monetary and fiscal policy using rules is creating a switch from fiscal towards monetary dominance. India also implemented flexible inflation targeting and fiscal responsibility legislation. The theoretical arguments, openness to capital flows, and historical experience with the adverse effects of fiscal dominance that led to these changes are discussed. When output is demand determined, with a relatively greater impact of monetary policy on demand, while fiscal policy affects supply-side costs and therefore inflation, as in India, monetary dominance also has adverse effects. Since each policy acts more effectively on the other's objective, co-ordination is essential to achieve optimal outcomes. Under adverse movements in revenues and high interest rates public investment is the first to be cut. Growth can fall below potential while supply-side inflation persists. The paper examines one way of achieving better outcomes. Rules alone could be interpreted too strictly. Delegation to a more conservative fiscal and less conservative monetary authority, by removing the fears of non-cooperation, makes coordination with higher payoffs for both self-enforcing. Such constrained discretion gives the required long-term perspective, yet retains flexibility. |
| Keywords: | Monetary and fiscal rules; Monetary versus fiscal dominance; delegation; Coordination |
| JEL: | E63 E65 C72 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2018-010&r=knm |
| By: | Douglas Hay |
| Abstract: | Abstract Many economic historians agree that increased labour inputs contributed to Britain’s primary industrialisation. Voluntary self-exploitation by workers to purchase new consumer goods is one common explanation, but it sits uneasily with evidence of poverty, child labour, popular protest, and criminal punishments explored by social historians. A critical and neglected legal dimension may be the evolution of contracts of employment. The law of master and servant, to use the technical term, shifted markedly between 1750 and 1850 to advantage capital and disadvantage labour. Medieval in origin, it had always been adjudicated in summary hearings before lay magistrates, and provided penal sanctions to employers (imprisonment, wage abatement, and later fines), while giving workers a summary remedy for unpaid wages. The law always enforced obedience to employers’ commands, suppressed strikes, and tried to keep wages low. Between 1750 and 1850 it became more hostile to workers through legislation and judicial redefinition; its enforcement became harsher through expansion of imprisonment, capture of the local bench by industrial employers, and employer abuse of written contracts. More work in manuscript sources is needed to test the argument, but it seems likely that intensification of labour inputs during industrialisation was closely tied to these legal changes. |
| Keywords: | coercion, contract of employment, labour law, industriousness, punishment, work time |
| Date: | 2018–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_164&r=knm |
| By: | Hugh Macartney; Robert McMillan; Uros Petronijevic |
| Abstract: | This paper documents a new empirical regularity: teacher value-added increases within-teacher when accountability incentives are strengthened. That finding motivates a strategy to separate value-added into incentive-varying teacher effort and incentive-invariant teacher ability, combining rich longitudinal data with exogenous incentive-policy variation from North Carolina. Our estimates indicate that teacher effort and ability both raise current and future test scores, with ability having stronger effects. These estimates feed into a framework for comparing the cost-effectiveness of alternative education policies. For illustration, we show incentive-oriented reforms can outperform policies targeting teacher ability, given their potential to influence all teachers rather than a subset. |
| Keywords: | Incentives, Teacher Performance, Value-Added, Effort, Ability, Education Production, Accountability, Education Policy, Cost-Effectiveness, Persistence |
| JEL: | I21 J24 M52 |
| Date: | 2018–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-610&r=knm |
| By: | Giovanni Dosi; Mauro Napoletano; Andrea Roventini; Tania Treibich |
| Abstract: | In this work we study the granular origins of business cycles and their possible underlying drivers. As shown by Gabaix (2011), the skewed nature of firm size distributions implies that idiosyncratic (and independent) firm-level shocks may account for a significant portion of aggregate volatility. Yet, we question the original view grounded on "supply granularity", as proxied by productivity growth shocks - in line with the Real Business Cycle framework-, and we provide empirical evidence of a "demand granularity", based on investment growth shocks instead. The role of demand in explaining aggregate fluctuations is further corroborated by means of a macroeconomic Agent-Based Model of the "Schumpeter meeting Keynes" family (Dosi et al., 2015). Indeed, the investigation of the possible microfoundation of RBC has led us to the identification of a sort of microfounded Keynesian multiplier. |
| Keywords: | business cycles, granular residual, granularity hypothesis, agent-based models, firm dynamics, productivity growth, investment growth |
| Date: | 2018–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2018/19&r=knm |
| By: | Cubi-Molla, P.; Mott, D.; Shah, K.; Herdman, M.; Summers, Y.; Devlin, N. |
| Abstract: | Cancer survival rates have improved dramatically in recent decades due in part to pharmaceutical advances, with a growing range of increasingly effective and targeted medicines being developed, such as immunotherapies. In the economic modelling of such treatments, the question arises of which utilities should be assigned to patients who show a long-term, durable response. In recent critiques of economic models in this area by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the idea that long-term cancer survivors (LTCS) who have received such treatments could report quality of life (QoL) scores which are similar to, or higher than, those of equivalent general population samples has not been viewed as credible. This literature review examines whether there is evidence to support the assumption that the QoL of LTCS can be similar to that of age/sex-matched population samples. This study was funded by Roche Products Ltd. |
| Keywords: | Economics of Health Technology Assessment; Measuring and valuing outcomes |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ohe:conrep:002023&r=knm |
| By: | Damien Challet |
| Abstract: | We report statistical regularities of the opening and closing auctions of French equities, focusing on the diffusive properties of the indicative auction price. Two mechanisms are at play as the auction end time nears: the typical price change magnitude decreases, favoring underdiffusion, while the rate of these events increases, potentially leading to overdiffusion. A third mechanism, caused by the strategic behavior of traders, is needed to produce nearly diffusive prices: waiting to submit buy orders until sell orders have decreased the indicative price and vice-versa. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1807.00573&r=knm |
| By: | martin Schumann (CREA, Université du Luxembourg); Thomas A. Severini (Northwestern University, Evanston, USA); Gautam Tripathi (CREA, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | Panel data models with fixed effects are widely used by economists and other social scientists to capture the effects of unobserved individual heterogeneity. In this paper, we propose a new integrated likelihood based approach for estimating panel data models when the unobserved individual effects enter the model nonlinearly. Unlike existing integrated likelihoods in the literature, the one we propose is closer to a \genuine" likelihood. Although the statistical theory for the proposed estimator is developed in an asymptotic setting where the number of individuals and the number of time periods both approach infinity, results from a simulation study suggest that our methodology can work very well even in moderately sized panels of short duration in both static and dynamic models. |
| Keywords: | Fixed effects, Integrated likelihood, Nonlinear models, Panel data |
| JEL: | C23 C33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:17-01&r=knm |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; Hanhui Guan; David Daokui Li |
| Abstract: | Abstract Chinese GDP per capita fluctuated at a high level during the Northern Song and Ming dynasties before trending downwards during the Qing dynasty. China led the world in living standards during the Northern Song dynasty, but had fallen behind Italy by 1300. At this stage, it is possible that parts of China were still on a par with the richest parts of Europe, but by 1750 the gap was too large to be bridged by regional variation within China and the Great Divergence had already begun before the Industrial Revolution. |
| Keywords: | GDP Per Capita; Economic Growth; Great Divergence; China; Europe |
| JEL: | E10 N35 O10 |
| Date: | 2017–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_155&r=knm |
| By: | Nicolás Grau; Jorge Miranda; Esteban Puentes |
| Abstract: | The effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes is controversial. There are several studies for developed countries with mixed results, but there is a lack of evidence for developing countries. We have access to a panel of workers from the unemployment insurance system in Chile, which allow us to study the effect of four consecutive increases in minimum wages using administrative data. We use several definitions of treatment and control groups, finding consistently a small and positive effect of the minimum wage on formal wages, and non-significant effects on formal employment. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp466&r=knm |
| By: | Jean-Baptiste Michau; Yoshiyasu Ono; Matthias Schlegl |
| Abstract: | We consider a neoclassical economy where households derive utility from holding wealth. We show that, under some conditions, there can be rational bubbles. Hence, we provide a microfoundation for bubbles that relies on a frictionless infinite-horizon economy without any heterogeneity across households. While our bubbly equilibria are very similar to those obtained by Tirole (1985) in an overlapping generation economy, the underlying economics is different. Turning to public debt, we show that Ponzi schemes can be sustainable. Hence, in general, the limit on the accumulation of public debt by the government is not given by its no-Ponzi condition but, instead, by the representative household's transversality condition. The Ricardian equivalence must hold in any of our equilibria. Finally, in the presence of money, the real equilibrium structure of the economy remains unchanged. We carefully investigate the effects of helicopter drops of money on the possibility of Ponzi schemes and of speculative hyperinflation or deflation. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1035&r=knm |
| By: | Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France - Banque de France); Pauline Wibaux (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The debate on trade wars and currency wars has re-emerged since the Great recession of 2009. We study the two forms of non-cooperative policies within a single framework. First, we compare the elasticity of trade flows to import tariffs and to the real exchange rate, based on product level data for 110 countries over the 1989-2013 period. We find that a 1 percent depreciation of the importer's currency reduces imports by around 0.5 percent in current dollar, whereas an increase in import tariffs by 1 percentage point reduces imports by around 1.4 percent. Hence the two instruments are not equivalent. Second, we build a stylized short-term macroeconomic model where the government aims at internal and external balance. We find that, in this setting, monetary policy is more stabilizing for the economy than trade policy, except when the internal transmission channel of monetary policy is muted (at the zero-lower bound). One implication is that, in normal times, a country will more likely react to a trade "aggression" through monetary easing rather than through a tariff increase. The result is reversed at the ZLB. |
| Keywords: | tariffs,exchange rates,trade elasticities,protectionism |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01820745&r=knm |
| By: | Schmidt, Jörg; Stette, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Seit langer Zeit wird in der Öffentlichkeit kontrovers über die Vertretung von Frauen in Führungspositionen diskutiert. Die vorliegende IW-Studie untersucht, welche Faktoren einen Einfluss auf die Vertretung von Frauen in Führungspositionen in deutschen Unternehmen haben. Die repräsentativen Daten des IW Personalpanels aus dem Frühjahr 2017 zeigen, dass der Anteil von Frauen unter den Führungskräften und ihr Anteil unter den Bewerbungen um vakante Führungspositionen nah beieinander liegen und im Durchschnitt rund 29 bzw. 32 Prozent betragen. In der Metall- und Elektro-Industrie sind im Durchschnitt unter den Führungskräften sogar anteilig mehr Frauen zu finden als unter den Bewerbungen um vakante Führungspositionen. Die Befunde leisten damit einen wichtigen Beitrag für die Frage, inwiefern Frauen in Leitungsfunktionen in einem angemessenen Umfang repräsentiert sind. Die Kritik an vermeintlich zu wenig ambitionierten Zielquoten in Unternehmen, die unter die Selbstverpflichtung des Gesetzes zur angemessenen Teilhabe von Frauen und Männern an Führungspositionen fallen, läuft ins Leere, wenn sich relativ wenige Frauen für Führungspositionen bewerben. Grundsätzlich ist der Anteil weiblicher Führungskräfte zwar auch dort besonders groß, wo der Frauenanteil unter den Belegschaftsangehörigen hoch ausfällt. Allerdings weicht in Unternehmen mit einem überdurchschnittlichen Frauenanteil unter den Beschäftigten tendenziell die Quote weiblicher Führungskräfte von dem Anteil der Frauen an den Bewerbungen um Führungspositionen am stärksten ab. Die multivariaten Auswertungen bestätigen zudem, dass der Anteil von Frauen an den Bewerbungen für Führungspositionen und ihr Anteil unter den Beschäftigten eines Unternehmens in einem signifikanten Zusammenhang mit dem Frauenanteil in Führungspositionen stehen. Insofern dürften interne gegenüber externen Kandidatinnen stärker in den Blick geraten, wenn der Frauenanteil unter den Beschäftigten im eigenen Unternehmen höher ausfällt (home bias). Führung in Teilzeit korreliert ebenfalls signifikant positiv mit dem Frauenanteil in Leitungsfunktionen. Andere Unternehmensmerkmale, die - wie zum Beispiel die Branche, Unternehmensgröße oder das Vorhandensein einer betrieblichen Interessenvertretung - auch in der öffentlichen De-batte häufig adressiert werden, stehen hingegen mit dem Ausmaß der Vertretung von Frauen in Führungspositionen nicht in einem erkennbaren Zusammenhang. |
| JEL: | J16 M51 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:142018&r=knm |
| By: | Yoshio Kamijo (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Yoichi Hizen (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Tatsuyoshi Saijo (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Teruyuki Tamura (Kyoto College of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Although future generations are affected by on-going economic, social, and environmental conditions, the current political process allows present-day voters to ignore future generations’ needs. This paper investigates a new voting rule wherein some people are given extra votes to serve as proxies for future generations (or individuals close to future generations). We predict that this voting scheme affects the voting behavior of those who do not receive an extra vote (i.e., single-ballot voters) because they are less likely to become a pivot, while proxy voters are expected to behave in support of the future generation. To test this prediction, we compare three scenarios wherein single-ballot voters would cast a vote: (a) one-voter-one-vote scenario wherein all voters cast only a single ballot; (b) a standard proxy-voting scenario wherein other voters cast two ballots, and the second vote is to cast for the benefit of a future generation; and (c) a non-proxy-voting scenario wherein other voters cast two ballots with no explanation for the second vote. Single-ballot voters are less inclined to vote for the future-oriented option in the non-proxy-voting scenario than in the one-voter-one-vote scenario. However, the results show that this reaction can be mitigated if the second vote is explained as being cast on behalf of the future generation. |
| Keywords: | Voting rule, proxy vote, Demeny voting, future generation, intergenerational equity |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2018-2&r=knm |
| By: | David E. Frisvold; Melinda Pitts |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of state merit-aid programs on the labor market attachment of high school-aged youths. The labor force participation rate of teenagers has fallen substantially in recent decades, coinciding with the introduction of merit-aid programs. These programs reduce the price of attending an in-state public college or university for high-achieving students and have the potential to influence students’ allocation of time and effort between labor market activities, human capital development, and other forms of leisure. We examine the influence of these programs based on their generosity, both in the amount of aid provided to a recipient and the percent of students who are recipients of aid, and in their selectivity. Our results suggest that programs that are more selective reduce labor force participation, but are not a significant cause in the decline in teenage labor force participation in recent decades. |
| JEL: | I2 J2 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24662&r=knm |
| By: | Mumm, Harald |
| Abstract: | [Einleitung] In [MuRo2007] wurde auf Basis von [Epel2004] ein Verfahren für das ’Split Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem’ vorgestellt, bei dem optimale Lösungen für dieses Problem ermittelt werden. Die formale Problemdefinition findet man ebenda. Umgangssprachlich geht es bei diesem Problem um das Finden optimaler Tourenpläne für die Deckung von Bedarfen in abstrakten Mengeneinheiten in n Orten, wenn man beliebig viele LKWs mit einer bestimmten Lieferkapazität zur Verfügung hat und die Belieferung von einem Depot aus stattfindet, in das die LKWs nach Auslieferung aller Waren zurückkehren. Unterstellt werden dabei ganzzahlige Ladekapazitäten, Tourlängenobergrenzen und ganzzahlige Bedarfe, die nur ganzzahlig aufsplittbar sind, und als Ziel Tourenpläne mit minimaler Tourlängensumme. In dieser Arbeit geht es um die Visualisierung der mit diesem Verfahren gefundenen optimalen Tourenpläne für 18 Beispielszenarien, um für den Praktiker aufzuzeigen, wie vielfältig die Transportmöglichkeiten sind und für Studierende ein Problembewusstsein zu erreichen. Damit die Szenarien vergleichbar bleiben, wurde lediglich der Parameter LKW-Kapazität variiert, und zwar so, dass am Anfang ein Tourenplan nur aus Pendeltouren besteht und am Ende eine einzige Rundtour reicht, um alle Orte zu beliefern. Mit diesem Diskussionspapier soll für das Thema geworben und die Problemstellung einem breiten Publikum näher gebracht werden. Mit der Zunahme des Onlinehandels wird dieses Thema in der Zukunft an Bedeutung gewinnen. Im Kapitel 2 dieser Arbeit werden die Eingabedaten und Parameter vorgestellt und erläutert, und im Kapitel 3 sind die Ausgabedaten in Form der berechneten Tourenpläne grafisch dargestellt. Im Kapitel 4 werden Anregungen und Fragen für eigene Überlegungen der Leserin bzw. des Lesers gegeben. Die Ausgabedaten in Form vieler Zahlen im Anhang(Kapitel 5) sind notwendig, damit die Leserin bzw. der Leser alle Ergebnisse verifizieren kann und ggf. auch versuchen kann, die Ergebnisse weiter zu verbessern. Alle Touren werden in Kapitel 3 farbig dargestellt. Durch Überlagerung der Touren kann es zu unvollständigen grafischen Darstellungen kommen. Im Zweifelsfall konsultiere man die stets vorhandene dazugehörige Tabelle der Auslieferungen. Die Ortslagen werden mit Bildschirmkoordinaten modelliert und die Abstände entsprechen der Luftlinie zwischen ihnen. Der Abstand ist ein euklidischer Abstand. Der Praktiker sei auf die Abbildungen 9 bis 13 und die dazugehörigen Kapitel 5.10 bis 5.14 im Anhang hingewiesen, weil hier real vorkommende LKW-Kapazitäten untersucht werden, wenn Bedarfe in Anzahl von Europaletten vorliegen. Für Studierende gibt es den Anreiz, bessere Lösungen als die hier vorgestellten zu ermitteln. Jede um mindestens 1% bessere Lösung wird prämiert, sofern Eingabedaten und Parameter identisch sind mit den hier verwendeten Werten. Die Berechnungen und Darstellungen wurden mittels Java-Programm auf einem Lenovo-Notebook T530 vorgenommen. Keine Berechnung dauerte länger als drei Sekunden. |
| JEL: | C61 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hswwdp:032017&r=knm |
| By: | Gabriele Camera (Economic Science Institute, Chapman University and University of Bologna); Jaehong Kim (Xiamen University) |
| Abstract: | Matching frictions and downward wage rigidity emerge as equilibrium phenomena in a twosided labor market where firms sustain variable wage adjustment costs. Firms post wages to attract workers and matches are endogenous. Reducing the wage relative to the wage previously posted is costly to the firm, where the cost is proportional to the size of the proposed cut. Shocks to the firm’s profitability may yield an equilibrium wage above what the firm would offer absent proportional adjustment costs. Wage cuts can be partial or full, immediate or delayed, and are non-linear in the shock size. Importantly, wages are sticky even if firms have negligible costs for cutting wages. |
| Keywords: | frictions; matching; sticky wages |
| JEL: | C70 D40 E30 J30 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:18-04&r=knm |
| By: | Angela Köppl (WIFO); Stefan Schleicher (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | One of the lessons learned from the German effort under the heading of Energiewende is the insight that simply shifting to renewables and recommending improving energy efficiency is not sufficient to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Combined with the expected radical change of technologies this requires a more profound understanding of our energy systems. Therefore, in contrast to most conventional approaches we propose a deepened structural analysis that covers the full energy value chain from the required functionalities for mechanical, thermal and specific electric energy services via application and transformation technologies up to primary energy. This deepened structural approach opens and substantially enhances our understanding of policy designs that are compatible with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. We discover the essential role of four energy grids, namely for electricity, heat, gas, and information as the key for integrating all components of a newly structured energy system. Consequently, we conclude that policy strategies focusing on individual components of an energy system as simply shifting to renewables may from a comprehensive perspective on sustainability in the worst case even turn out as counterproductive. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable energy systems, Energy value chain, Energy grids |
| Date: | 2018–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2018:i:566&r=knm |
| By: | Christopher L. Benson; Pranav D Sumanth; Alina P Colling |
| Abstract: | Autonomous ships (AS) used for cargo transport have gained a considerable amount of attention in recent years. They promise benefits such as reduced crew costs, increased safety and increased flexibility. This paper explores the effects of a faster increase in technological performance in maritime shipping achieved by leveraging fast-improving technological domains such as computer processors, and advanced energy storage. Based on historical improvement rates of several modes of transport (Cargo Ships, Air, Rail, Trucking) a simplified Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation of an intermodal transport model (IMTM) is used to explore the effects of differing technological improvement rates for AS. The results show that the annual improvement rates of traditional shipping (Ocean Cargo Ships = 2.6%, Air Cargo = 5.5%, Trucking = 0.6%, Rail = 1.9%, Inland Water Transport = 0.4%) improve at lower rates than technologies associated with automation such as Computer Processors (35.6%), Fuel Cells (14.7%) and Automotive Autonomous Hardware (27.9%). The IMTM simulations up to the year 2050 show that the introduction of any mode of autonomous transport will increase competition in lower cost shipping options, but is unlikely to significantly alter the overall distribution of transport mode costs. Secondly, if all forms of transport end up converting to autonomous systems, then the uncertainty surrounding the improvement rates yields a complex intermodal transport solution involving several options, all at a much lower cost over time. Ultimately, the research shows a need for more accurate measurement of current autonomous transport costs and how they are changing over time. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01696&r=knm |
| By: | Leombroni, Matteo; Vedolin, Andrea; Venter, Gyuri; Whelan, Paul |
| Abstract: | Using the institutional features of ECB monetary policy announcements, we provide direct evidence for the risk premium channel of central bank communication. We show that on days when the ECB announces its monetary policy almost all of the variation of bond yields is driven by communication. Moreover, while the effect of monetary policy is homogeneous across countries before the European debt crisis, we document dramatic differences post crisis and show that communication shocks drive a wedge between peripheral and core yields. We empirically link the periphery-core wedge to break-up and credit risk premia, and study this channel theoretically through the lens of an equilibrium model in which central bank communication reveals information about the state of the economy. |
| Keywords: | central bank communication; Eurozone; interest rates; monetary policy; risk premia |
| JEL: | E42 E58 G12 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12970&r=knm |
| By: | Roberts, Daniel (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Sarkar, Asani (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Shachar, Or (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | We examine liquidity creation per unit of assets by banks subject to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) using the liquidity measures Liquidity Mismatch Index (LMI) (Bai et al., 2018) and BB (Berger and Bouwman, 2009). We identify the LCR effects through time and cross-section effects, specific LCR-constrained balance sheet categories, an economically similar asset pair with different LCR weights, and the differential implementation of LCR by the very large and less-large LCR banks. We find that, since 2013, there has been reduced liquidity creation by LCR banks compared to non-LCR banks, occurring mostly through greater holdings of liquid assets and lower holdings of illiquid assets. Trends in liquid asset holdings are driven by High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA), an LCR-defined category, particularly for assets where market and LCR liquidity weights are most similar. Of particular interest is a post-LCR shift in LCR bank portfolios to GNMA MBS rather than GSE MBS, economically similar assets with different LCR weights, that is not attributable to relatively greater issuances or relative price effects. We also find sharper declines of commercial and residential real estate loans by LCR banks relative to non-LCR banks post-2013. Finally, we find a decline in the high run-off category of LCR liabilities for LCR banks relative to non-LCR banks post-2013 for the largest LCR banks with greater than $250 billion in assets. Our results highlight the trade-off between lower liquidity creation and lower run risk from reduced liquidity mismatch of the largest banks. |
| Keywords: | LCR; banks; liquidity creation |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:852&r=knm |
| By: | Paolo Crosetto (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique); Anne Lacroix (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique); Laurent Muller (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique); Bernard Ruffieux (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We study in a laboratory framed field experiment the impact of five Front of Pack labels (FOPL) on the nutritional quality and cost of a daily consumption basket. We employ a difference in difference experimental design, between subjects, to cleanly identify the impact of FOPL. 691 subjects issued from the general population shop twice within a catalog of 290 products: a first time without and a second unan-nounced time with labels. Purchases are real. We test five different labels and compare result against a benchmark treatment in which subjects shop twice with no labels. Labels include the existing Multiple Traffic Lights, Reference Intakes and Health Star Rating, and two newly proposed designs: NutriScore, a 5-color synthetic label, and SENS, a frequency-based recommendation label. We measure nutritional quality using the FSA score. All labels but Reference Intakes significantly improve nutritional quality. NutriScore is significantly more effective than all other labels, followed by the Australian Health Star and Multiple Traffic Lights. The nutritional improvements due to the labeling come at an economic cost, as the average cost of 2000Kcal increases for all labels. Nonetheless, we show that the extra cost for a unit nutritional improvement is borne mainly by richer households. Behaviorally, change is concentrated in the extremal categories of each label. Easier to understand labels have a higher impact and crowd out more successfully other information cues like ingredients lists and nutritional tables. |
| Keywords: | Nutritional labels,Experiment,Front of Pack,Etiquetage nutritionnel,Economie expérimentale |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01805431&r=knm |
| By: | Liyuan Chen (University of York); Paola Zerilli (University of York); Christopher F Baum (Boston College; German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)) |
| Abstract: | The crude oil markets have been quite volatile and risky in the past few decades due to the large fluctuations of oil prices. We contribute to the current debate by testing for the existence of the leverage effect when considering daily spot returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil markets and by studying the direct impact of the leverage effect on measures of risk such as VaR and CVaR. More specifically, we model spot crude oil returns using Stochastic Volatility (SV) models with various distributions of the errors. We find that the introduction of the leverage effect in the traditional SV model with Normally distributed errors is capable of adequately estimating risk for conservative oil suppliers in both the WTI and Brent markets while it tends to overestimate risk for more speculative oil suppliers. Our results also show that the choice of financial regulators, both on the supply and on the demand side, would not be affected by the introduction of leverage. Focusing instead on firm’s internal risk management, our results show that the introduction of leverage would be useful for firms who are on the demand side for oil, who use VaR for risk management and who are particularly worried about the magnitude of the losses exceeding VaR while wanting to minimize the opportunity cost of capital. Using the same logic, firms who are on the supply side would be better off not considering the leverage effect. |
| Keywords: | Value-at-Risk, Conditional Value-at-Risk, Asymmetric Laplace distribution, Stochastic volatility model, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo, leverage effect |
| JEL: | C11 C58 G17 G32 |
| Date: | 2018–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:953&r=knm |
| By: | Colin Gray (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Studies of take up in social insurance programs rarely distinguish between initial enrollment and retention of beneficiaries. This paper shows that retention plays a meaningful role in incomplete take up: despite knowledge of and eligibility for a near-cash public benefit, many participants exit the program rather than complete administrative requirements. Using administrative data on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) for multiple states, I show that over half of entering households exit SNAP within one year of entry. Exits are concentrated in key reporting and recertification months, when participants must submit substantial paperwork in order to remain on the program. Combining administrative SNAP and Unemployment Insurance (UI) records from the state of Michigan, I provide evidence that mechanical eligibility changes cannot explain the extent of program exit. Finally, I demonstrate a substantial effect of administrative requirements on retention by studying the staggered rollout of Michigan’s online case management tool, which reduced exits for likely eligible applicants by approximately 10 percent around these key dates. |
| Keywords: | social insurance, food assistance, program take up, public finance |
| JEL: | H42 I38 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:18-288&r=knm |
| By: | Xue-Zhong He (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney); Kai Li (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney); Chuncheng Wang (Harbing Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | By developing a continuous-time heterogeneous agent model of multiassets traded by fundamental and momentum investors, we provide a potential mechanism in generating time-varying dominance between fundamental and nonfundamental in financial market. The deterministic skeleton of the nonlinear model tends to have bistable dynamics, characterized by a Bautin bifurcation, in which a locally stable fundamental steady state coexists with a locally stable limit cycle around the fundamental, leading to two very different market states. Market prices switch stochastically between the two persistent market states, leading to the coexistence of seemingly controversial efficient market and price momentum over different time periods. The model also generates other financial market stylized facts, such as spillover effects in both momentum and volatility, market booms, crashes, and correlation reduction due to cross-sectional momentum trading. Empirical evidence based on US market supports the main findings. |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:rpaper:390&r=knm |
| By: | Fischer, Manfred M.; Huber, Florian; Pfarrhofer, Michael |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore the relationship between state-level household income inequality and macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States. Using a novel large-scale macroeconometric model, we shed light on regional disparities of inequality responses to a national uncertainty shock. The results suggest that income inequality decreases in most states, with a pronounced degree of heterogeneity in terms of shapes and magnitudes of the dynamic responses. By contrast, some few states, mostly located in the West and South census region, display increasing levels of income inequality over time. We find that this directional pattern in responses is mainly driven by the income composition and labor market fundamentals. In addition, forecast error variance decompositions allow for a quantitative assessment of the importance of uncertainty shocks in explaining income inequality. The findings highlight that volatility shocks account for a considerable fraction of forecast error variance for most states considered. Finally, a regression-based analysis sheds light on the driving forces behind differences in state-specific inequality responses. |
| Keywords: | income distribution, inequality, uncertainty shocks, US states, global vector autoregressive model |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus046:6368&r=knm |
| By: | Isabel Argimon; Clemens Bonner; Ricardo Correa; Patty Duijm; Jon Frost; Jakob de Haan; Leo de Haan; Viktors Stebunovs |
| Abstract: | Global financial institutions play an important role in channeling funds across countries and, therefore, transmitting monetary policy from one country to another. In this paper, we study whether such international transmission depends on financial institutions' business models. In particular, we use Dutch, Spanish, and U.S. confidential supervisory data to test whether the transmission operates differently through banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. We find marked heterogeneity in the transmission of monetary policy across the three types of institutions, across the three banking systems, and across banks within each banking system. While insurance companies and pension funds do not transmit home-country monetary policy internationally, banks do, with the direction and strength of the transmission determined by their business models and balance sheet characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy transmission ; Global financial institutions ; Bank lending channel ; Portfolio channel ; Business models |
| JEL: | E5 F3 F4 G2 |
| Date: | 2018–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1228&r=knm |
| By: | Blankenberg, Ann-Kathrin; Alhusen, Harm |
| Abstract: | Determinants of pro-environmental behavior (PEB) have been studied rigorously in the past decades. Given this spurt, a systematic review of extant research is required to determine factors involved, analyze impact and identify research gaps and new directions. This paper provides a systematic review of current economic and psychological studies regarding the determinants of PEB. As a result, we show that PEB is determined by an interplay of socioeconomic, psychological and further (individual, social, institutional) factors, which need to be considered in its study. In addition, PEB needs to be analyzed with multiple items rather than by focusing on single ones as the impact of the determinants differs depending on the analyzed behavior. To express it in economic terms, the coefficient of each determinant can either be positive or negative, given the specific type of analyzed behavior (low vs high cost behavior). By combining the results from economics and psychology, this work offers a starting point for a more sophisticated understanding of PEB. |
| Keywords: | determinants of pro-environmental behavior,ecological economics,review |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:350&r=knm |
| By: | Aminu, Nasir (Cardiff Business School); Meenagh, David (Cardiff Business School); Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of energy shocks during the Great Recession. We study the behaviour of the UK energy and non-energy intensive sectors firms in a real business cycle (RBC) model using unfiltered data. The model is econometrically estimated and tested by indirect inference. Output contraction during the Great Recession was largely caused by energy price and sector-specific productivity shocks, all of which are non-stationary and hence tend to dominate the sample variance decomposition. We also found that the channel by which the energy price shock reduces output in the model is via the terms of trade: these fall permanently when world energy prices increase and as substitutes for energy inputs are strictly limited there are few reactions via production channels. Therefore, there is no other way to balance the deteriorating current account than through lower domestic absorption. |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2018/13&r=knm |
| By: | Fabrice Murtin (OECD); Lara Fleischer (OECD); Vincent Siegerink (OECD); Arnstein Aassve (Bocconi University); Yann Algan (Sciences Po, Paris); Romina Boarini (OECD); Santiago González (OECD); Zsuzsanna Lonti (OECD); Gianluca Grimalda (Kiel University); Rafael Hortala Vallve (London School of Economics); Soonhee Kim (Korea Development Institute); David Lee (Korea Development Institute); Louis Putterman (Brown university); Conal Smith (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the results of an international initiative on trust (Trustlab) run in six OECD countries between November 2016 and November 2017 (France, Germany, Italy, Korea, Slovenia and the United States). Trustlab combines cutting-edge techniques drawn from behavioural science and experimental economics with an extensive survey on the policy and contextual determinants of trust in others and trust in institutions, administered to representative samples of participants. The main results are as follows: 1) Self-reported measures of trust in institutions are validated experimentally, 2) Self-reported measures of trust in others capture a belief about trustworthiness (as well as altruistic preferences), whereas experimental measures rather capture willingness to cooperate and one’s own trustworthiness. Therefore, both measures are loosely related, and should be considered complementary rather than substitutes; 3) Perceptions of institutional performance strongly correlate with both trust in government and trust in others; 4) Perceived government integrity is the strongest determinant of trust in government; 5) In addition to indicators associated with social capital, such as neighbourhood connectedness and attitudes towards immigration, perceived satisfaction with public services, social preferences and expectations matter for trust in others; 6) There is a large scope for policy action, as an increase in all significant determinants of trust in government by one standard deviation may be conducive to an increase in trust by 30 to 60%. |
| Keywords: | cooperative games, implicit association test, no cooperative games, trust, trust in institutions |
| Date: | 2018–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2018/2-en&r=knm |
| By: | Ouyang, Alice Y. (Asian Development Bank Institute); Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Building on an analytical model, we provide cross-country empirical evidence that net skilled emigration appreciates bilateral real exchange rates through the wage channel in source countries. Chains of causality in the presence of the Law of One Price run through the “spending effect” and the “resource allocation effect,” analogous to the remittance-based Dutch disease effect. A pricing-to-market model allows pass-through for both traded and nontraded prices when the Law of One Price is violated. The skilled emigration elasticity of real exchange rate is estimated to be in the range of between .6 and .8, with internal prices playing a dominant role. Alternative model specifications show robust outcomes. |
| Keywords: | emigration; exchange rate; the Dutch disease |
| JEL: | F22 F31 |
| Date: | 2018–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0823&r=knm |
| By: | Roberto Alvarez; Erwin Hansen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a panel (1994-2014) of Chilean non-financial firms, both publicly listed and private, which was built to analyze the determinants of the use of foreign currency debt and their potential consequences for firm investment and profitability. It is found that foreign assets and the use of FX derivatives are positively associated with firms' use of foreign currency debt. Also, depending on the estimation method, exports appear as an important determinant of the use of foreign currency debt. In terms of the potential effect of holding foreign currency debt on firms' performance after an exchange rate devaluation, no statistical differential effect is identified on either firm profitability or firm investment. This (lack of) result is interpreted as evidence that firms match liabilities and assets denominated in foreign currency and that firms actively involved in hedging aim to reduce their exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Currency Debt, Foreign exchange, Bonds, Interest rates, Macroeconomics, Export Sales, Foreign Assets, Firm performance, foreign exchange, non-financial firms, interest rate |
| JEL: | E22 G31 F34 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:8191&r=knm |
| By: | Effrosyni Diamantousi (Department of Economics, Concordia University); Eftichios Sartzetakis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Stefania Strantza (Department of Economics, Concordia University) |
| Abstract: | The present paper examines the stability of self-enforcing International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) among heterogeneous countries in a two stage emission game. In the first stage each country decides whether or not to join the agreement, while in the second stage the quantity of emissions is chosen simultaneously by all countries. We use quadratic benefit and environmental damage functions and assume k types of countries that differ in their sensitivity to the global pollutant. We find that the introduction of heterogeneity does not yield larger stable coalitions. In particular, we show that, in the case of two types, when stable coalitions exist their size is very small, and, if the asymmetry is strong enough, they include only one type of countries. Moreover, heterogeneity can reduce the scope of cooperation relative to the homogeneous case. We demostrated that introducing asymmetry into a stable, under symmetry, agreement can disturb stability. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Agreements. |
| JEL: | D6 Q5 C7 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2018_08&r=knm |
| By: | Aurisa, Fanny Rahmadianti |
| Abstract: | Abstract What is the level of economic prosperity of the people after obtaining an additional received of zakat fitrah is examined in this case. Similar (not mixed); foodstuffs used for zakat fitrah should be of a kind, should not be mixed. For example, types of rice, wheat, corn, wheat and so forth. So if rice is mixed with corn then it is not sufficient for Zakat Zakat is the amount of property that must be issued by the followers of Islam to be given to the eligible groups, such as the poor and the like, in accordance with established by sharia. Zakat includes the third pillar of Islam and one of the essential elements to enforce Islamic law. Zakat is divided into two kinds, namely, zakat fitrah and zakat maal. Zakat fitrah is a charity that must be done for the Muslims ahead of Idul Fitri or in Ramadhan. Zakat fitrah can be paid equivalent to 3.5 liter (2.5kilogram) staple food of the area concerned. The main purpose of this study is to determine the effect of zakat fitrah on the economic community Babakan Loa Rancaekek area, Bandung. The research method used is an interview with the chairman of DKM Al-Furqon as well as analyzing the data zakat fitrah recapture. From the results of interviews can be concluded that the zakat fitrah affect the economy of people entitled to get zakat (mustahik). The result of zakat collected is large enough that zakat mustahik is aided in the economy even in the not-too-distant future. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Zakat Fitrah, Economy, Mustahik, influenced. |
| JEL: | Z1 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87477&r=knm |
| By: | Achiraya Monthathip; Winai Puttakul; Chakrit Potchanasin (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Faculty of Economics, Kasetsart University) |
| Abstract: | This survey research interviewed 400 consumers in Bangkok who ever used or are using organic shampoo. The study objectives were 1) Study the general characteristics of consumers 2) Study consumer behavior in organic shampoo purchase and 3) Analyze the appropriate attributes of organic shampoo products that consumers are satisfied. Cluster Analysis divided the consumers into 2 groups and then Kano Model identified attributes of the products each group prefer. The result indicated that the first group is a group of college students and those who just start the first job. People around them have an influence on the purchase. This group prefers the product of various varieties and formulas, get reviewed on online media. The second group is a group of consumers in the working age always shop for health, The product features are of various varieties and formulas, get reviewed on online media, portable size available at convenience store and online channel distribution. |
| Keywords: | Optimal Attributes, Organic Shampoo, Organic |
| JEL: | M13 M31 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kau:wpaper:201801&r=knm |
| By: | Chiara Criscuolo; Jonathan Timmis |
| Abstract: | This paper uses “centrality” metrics to reflect the changing structure of Global Value Chains (GVCs), contrasting central hubs and peripheral countries and sectors, and examine how these changes impact firm productivity. Using cross-country firm-level data from ORBIS, the paper finds that changing position within GVCs can play a role in the catch up of firms, but the results are heterogeneous across firms and countries. Firstly, becoming more central is associated with faster productivity growth of smaller firms, nonfrontier businesses, and of firms in smaller economies and in post-2004 EU member countries. And these correlations weaken with firm size and with proximity to the frontier, such that when one ignores firm heterogeneity and only considers average effects, there is no correlation for the average firms in the data. Secondly, the (centrality weighted) average productivity of buyers matters for the productivity of firms in our data overall, however this is particularly true for firms in large economies, for non-frontier and for smaller firms. The policy environment, such as flexible labour markets, better access to finance, stronger contract enforcement and simplified export procedures, appears to be important in translating the changing structure of GVCs into faster productivity growth of these non-frontier firms. |
| Keywords: | centrality, firms, global value chains, network analysis, Productivity |
| JEL: | D22 F12 F14 L25 |
| Date: | 2018–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaac:14-en&r=knm |
| By: | Malhotra, Neil (University of California, Riverside); Newman, Benjamin (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Leading research is converging upon the finding that citizens from immigrant-receiving nations strongly prefer the entry of high-skilled to low-skilled immigrants. Prior studies have largely interpreted this "skill premium" as deriving from sociotropic economic considerations. We argue that a purely economic conceptualization offers an incomplete understanding of the processes generating the skill premium, as it overlooks the role of prejudice as a factor undergirding citizens' preferences. We contend that the skill premium is a manifestation of prejudice insomuch as it constitutes a preference for those atypical of the existing immigrant population. Through re-analysis of data from published work, as well as via original survey experiments, we demonstrate that a purely economic interpretation of the skill premium fails a range of critical tests. Our findings suggest that rather than solely representing a race-neutral preference for skilled immigrants, the skill premium partly represents a preference against disliked prevalent immigrants. |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3590&r=knm |
| By: | Engelbert Stockhammer (Kingston University); Rob Jump; Karsten Kohler; Julian Cavallero |
| Abstract: | Theories such as Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis or New Keynesian financial accelerator models assign a key role to financial factors in business cycle dynamics. We present descriptive statistics and a simple estimation framework to examine the financial-real interaction mechanisms that are at the core of these theories. Specifically, we examine cycle frequencies in seven OECD countries over the period 1970 to 2015, and find that interest rates, business debt, and household debt exhibit cycle lengths of 4-6, 8-11, and 14-26 years, respectively. We then estimate bivariate VAR models which provide evidence for financial-real interaction mechanisms, (i) at high frequencies between interest rates and GDP, and (ii) at low frequencies between business debt and GDP. In contrast, there is no evidence for a cycle mechanism between household debt and GDP. |
| Keywords: | Minsky, financial accelerator, financial cycle, business cycle |
| JEL: | E32 G01 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1807&r=knm |
| By: | Nüß, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Based on a correspondence experiment covering 3,124 fictitious job applications, the paper identifies and quantifies duration dependence in Germany, with a particular emphasis on company and vacancy characteristics as potential determinants. The experiment reveals that duration dependence manifests itself in a sharp decline of 26% to 35% in callbacks when an individual has been unemployed for 10 months, pointing to the existence of an unemployment stigma for Germany. The results are driven by labor market tightness, companies' access to applicants and screening behavior related to company size, with no evidence for an unemployment stigma determined by the contract type. |
| Keywords: | Field Experiments,Public Policy,Labor Demand,Unemployment Duration,Labor Discrimination |
| JEL: | C93 J68 J23 J64 J71 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201806&r=knm |
| By: | Nabil Kahale |
| Abstract: | We describe general multilevel Monte Carlo methods that estimate the price of an Asian option monitored at $m$ fixed dates. Our algorithms yield an unbiased estimator with standard deviation $O(\epsilon)$ in $O(m + (1/\epsilon)^{2})$ expected time for a variety of processes such as the Black-Scholes model, the CEV model, Merton's jump-diffusion model, a class of exponential Levy processes and, via the Milstein scheme, processes driven by scalar stochastic differential equations. Using the Euler scheme, our approach estimates the Asian option price with root mean square error $O(\epsilon)$ in $O(m+(\ln(\epsilon)/\epsilon)^{2})$ expected time for processes driven by multidimensional stochastic differential equations. Preliminary numerical experiments confirm that our approach outperforms the conventional Monte Carlo method by a factor of order $m$. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1805.09427&r=knm |
| By: | Krishnamurthy, Arvind (Stanford University); Muir, Tyler (University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | We study the behavior of credit and output across a financial crisis cycle using information from credit spreads. We show the transition into a crisis occurs with a large increase in credit spreads, indicating that crises involve a dramatic shift in expectations and are a surprise. The severity of the subsequent crisis can be forecast by the size of credit losses (change in spreads) coupled with the fragility of the financial sector (as measured by pre-crisis credit growth), and we document that this interaction is an important feature of crises. We also find that recessions in the aftermath of financial crises are severe and protracted. Finally, we find that spreads fall pre-crisis and appear too low, even as credit grows ahead of a crisis. This behavior of both prices and quantities suggests that credit supply expansions are a precursor to crises. The 2008 financial crisis cycle is in keeping with these historical patterns surrounding financial crises. |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3579&r=knm |
| By: | Jackson, Osborne (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates supply-side discrimination in the labor market for Boston taxi drivers. Using data on millions of trips from 2010–2015, I explore whether the labor supply behavior of taxi drivers differs by the gender, racial/ethnic, or age composition of Boston neighborhoods. I find that disparities in shift hours due to neighborhood demographics exist even when differences in local earnings opportunities are taken into account. I observe heterogeneity in the amount that drivers discriminate and find that this discrimination is primarily statistical rather than taste-based. As drivers gain experience and learn to better anticipate wage variation, discrimination decreases. |
| Keywords: | discrimination; labor supply; Boston taxis; wage elasticity |
| JEL: | J22 J31 J71 L91 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:18-2&r=knm |
| By: | Shirai, Sayuri (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sugandi, Eric (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine the developments of cross-border portfolio assets and liabilities in Asia and the Pacific region over the period 2001–2017. Rapid increases in both portfolio foreign assets and liabilities have taken place particularly after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. These cross-border portfolio investments have the following characteristics. First, equity has been a dominant source of foreign liabilities notwithstanding efforts to develop bond markets in the region. One exception is Australia, where foreign liabilities have been largely in the form of debt securities. Limited capital inflows to debt securities issued by emerging Asia may be attributable to the early stages of bond market development. Second, in contrast, debt securities have remained dominant as foreign assets held by the region. This mostly reflects Japan’s preference toward debt securities. Other Asian and Pacific economies have invested more heavily in foreign equity. Third, the region’s assets and liabilities linkages have remained overwhelmingly strengthened against the United States and Europe. Nonetheless, the post-crisis period has witnessed greater financial integration within the region. The intraregional linkages have been deepest between Hong Kong, China and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), where the former has become a major financier of equity issued by the latter. Singapore increasingly plays a role as an equity investor toward the PRC, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and other ASEAN economies. Albeit from the low level, the intra-ASEAN integration has been noticeable. Fourth, Japan with the largest abundant domestic capital has remained predominantly exposed to the United States and Europe. Within the region, debt securities issued by Australia have increasingly attracted Japan’s capital. To conclude, intraregional financial integration has risen at the center of the PRC with growing linkages with Hong Kong, China and Singapore. |
| Keywords: | portfolio investment; financial market integration; Asia and the Pacific |
| JEL: | F36 G15 |
| Date: | 2018–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0841&r=knm |
| By: | Tobias A. Jopp (University of Regensburg) |
| Abstract: | The scholarly discourse about twentieth century forced labour has raised important questions. For example, how profitable and productive has the employment of forced labour been in different political and economic contexts? The dominant take-away from the literature is that forced labour comes with negative productivity, but positive production effects. Yet much evidence on productivity is anecdotal. To add a new quantitative take on this issue, this paper analyses the natural experiment conducted in World War I Ruhr coal mining, where, beginning with 1915, Prisoner-of-War (POW) labour was successively employed in many, but not all mines. The question to be answered is whether mines employing POW labour incurred significant labour productivity losses compared to non-POW employing mines that cannot be explained otherwise. To this end, we borrow from the treatment effects literature and implement two estimators – a baseline difference-in-difference fixed effects estimator and a doubly robust treatment effects estimator. Our study is the first to assess the productivity effects of POW employment using a full population of establishments of a particular industry. Our findings strongly support the view that the benefits from employing POW labour – i.e., the output-effect – came at the expense of a significant loss in productivity. |
| Keywords: | Coal, Difference-in-differences, Doubly-robust estimation, Germany, Prisoners of War, Productivity, Treatment effects, WWI |
| JEL: | D24 J24 N44 N54 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0132&r=knm |
| By: | Paola Profeta; Eleanor Woodhouse |
| Abstract: | How do electoral rules affect the representation of women? We collect panel data on the universe of Italian politicians from all levels of government over the period 1987-2013 and obtain a complete picture of the career paths of male and female politicians across the whole arc of their careers in public office. We use our unique dataset to analyse the effects on female political representation of an Italian reform which, in 2005, changed the electoral rule for national elections from (mostly) majoritarian to proportional, but did not affect sub-national level elections. We find that proportional electoral rules favour the election of women. We propose a new channel through which this result is obtained, related to the different nature of political competition in the two electoral systems: under proportional rules, parties place women less frequently in competitive seats. This is consistent with the fact that proportional systems value gender diversity more than majoritarian ones, while majoritarian systems rely on head-to-head electoral races, which are not gender neutral. We also find that electoral rules have weaker effects on female representation in geographical areas where traditional gender roles are dominant. |
| Keywords: | electoral systems, majoritarian, proportional, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | H70 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7101&r=knm |
| By: | Vaishali Zambre |
| Abstract: | Several studies show that young women start with lower wage expectations than men, even before entering the labor market and that this partly translates into the actual gender wage gap through effects on educational choice and the formation of reservation wages. Building on the theoretical reasoning of compensating differentials proposing that the labor market compensates higher wage risk with higher wages, this study investigates whether the gender gap in wage expectations can be explained by individuals anticipating this form of risk compensation. Relying on a unique survey on German high school graduates in which we elicited information on the entire distribution of expected wages, this study documents that already at this early stage, female students expect to earn around 16% less than their male counterparts. At the same time, they expect lower wage risk as measured by the individual-specific dispersion in wage expectations. I decompose the gender gap into components attributable to socio-demographic factors, academic performance and skills, intended college major choice, career motives, personality traits, economic preferences, measures for students’ confidence and expected wage risk. The results indicate that anticipated compensation for wage risk plays a major role in explaining the gender gap in wage expectations suggesting that females have lower wage expectations because they are willing to trade off higher wages for lower wage risk. The results of this study shed light on why young women make different choices regarding education and careers, thereby enhancing our understanding of the observed gender wage gap. |
| Keywords: | Wage expectations, gender gap, wage risk, risk compensation |
| JEL: | I28 J18 D04 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1742&r=knm |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Klodiana Istrefi |
| Abstract: | Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are perceived as swingers, switching between types, or remained an unknown quantity to markets. What makes a member a hawk or a dove? What moulds those who change their tune? We highlight ideology by education and early life economic experiences of members of the FOMC from 1960s to 2015. This research is based on an original dataset. |
| JEL: | E50 E61 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24650&r=knm |
| By: | Tewodros Ayenew Wassie (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield) |
| Abstract: | In most empirical studies that establish the export-productivity relationships, output is measured in values rather than in quantities. This makes it difficult to distinguish between productivity and within-firm changes in price that could occur following exposure to international markets. Using detailed data on quantity and prices from Ethiopian manufacturing firms in the period 1996-2005, this paper distinguishes efficiency from revenue based productivity and examines what this means for the estimated relationship between exporting and productivity. The main results show that exporters are more productive than non-exporters in terms of revenue based productivity and this is explained by both self-selection and learning effects. However, when correcting for price heterogeneity, exporters appear to be similar to non-exporters both before and after export entry. Overall, the results suggest that the increase in firm-level productivity following entry into foreign markets is associated with changes in prices as opposed to productive efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Export; revenue productivity; physical productivity; price heterogeneity; Africa; Ethiopia |
| JEL: | F14 D22 O14 O55 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2018012&r=knm |
| By: | Maria Sousa Galito |
| Abstract: | Julius Caesar (JC) survived two civil wars: first, leaded by Cornelius Sulla and Gaius Marius; and second by himself and Pompeius Magnus. Until he was stabbed to death, at a senate session, in the Ides of March of 44 BC. JC has always been loved or hated, since he was alive and throughout History. He was a war hero, as many others. He was a patrician, among many. He was a roman Dictator, but not the only one. So what did he do exactly to get all this attention? Why did he stand out so much from the crowd? What did he represent? JC was a front-runner of his time, not a modern leader of the XXI century; and there are things not accepted today that were considered courageous or even extraordinary achievements back then. This text tries to explain why it’s important to focus on the man; on his life achievements before becoming the most powerful man in Rome; and why he stood out from every other man. |
| Keywords: | Caesar, Politics, Military, Religion, Assassination. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cav:cavwpp:wp168&r=knm |
| By: | Gutierrez, German; Philippon, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Until the 1990's, US markets were more competitive than European markets. Today, European markets have lower concentration, lower excess profits and lower regulatory barriers to entry. We document this surprising outcome and propose an explanation using a model of political support. Politicians care about consumer welfare but also enjoy retaining control over industrial policy. We show that politicians from different countries who set up a common regulator will make it more independent and more pro-competition than the national ones it replaces. Our comparative analysis of antitrust policy reveals strong support for this and other predictions of the model. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12983&r=knm |
| By: | Akinci, Ozge (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Queralto, Albert (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Abstract: | We use a two-country New Keynesian model with balance sheet constraints to investigate the magnitude of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy. Home borrowers obtain funds from domestic households in domestic currency, as well as from residents of the foreign economy (the United States) in dollars. We assume agency frictions are more severe for foreign debt than for domestic deposits. As a consequence, a deterioration in domestic borrowers’ balance sheets induces a rise in the home currency’s premium and an exchange rate depreciation. We use the model to investigate how international monetary spillovers are affected by the degree of currency mismatches in balance sheets, and whether the latter make it desirable for domestic policy to target the nominal exchange rate. We find that the magnitude of spillovers is significantly enhanced by the degree of currency mismatches. Our findings also suggest that using monetary policy to stabilize the exchange rate is not necessarily more desirable with greater balance sheet mismatches and may actually exacerbate short-run exchange rate volatility. |
| Keywords: | financial intermediation; U.S. monetary policy spillovers; currency premium; uncovered interest rate parity condition |
| JEL: | E32 E44 F41 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:849&r=knm |
| By: | Young Hoon Lee (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul); Yongdai Kim (Department of Statistics, Seoul National University); Sara Kim (Department of Statistics, Seoul National University) |
| Abstract: | Many empirical studies on competitive balance (CB) use the ratio of the actual standard deviation to the idealized standard deviation of win percentages (RSD). This paper suggests that empirical studies that use RSD to compare CB among different leagues are invalid, but that RSD may be used for time-series analysis on CB in a league if there are no changes in season length. When schedules are unbalanced and/or include interleague games, the final winning percentage is a biased estimator of the true win probability. This paper takes a mathematical statistical approach to derive an unbiased estimator of within-season CB that can be applied to not only balanced but also unbalanced schedules. Simulations and empirical applications are also presented. |
| Keywords: | Competitive Balance, Unbalanced Schedule, Unbiased Estimation |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgo:wpaper:1801&r=knm |
| By: | Tan Le (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Franck Martin (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Duc Nguyen (IPAG - IPAG Business School - Ipag) |
| Abstract: | Conditional granger causality framework in Barnett and Seth (2014) is employed to measure the connectedness among the most globally traded currencies. The connectedness exhibits dynamics through time on both breadth and depth dimensions at three levels: node-wise, group-wise and system-wise. Overall, rolling connectedness series could capture major systemic events like Lehman Broth-ers' collapse and the get-through of Outright Monetary Transactions in Europe in September 2012. The rolling total breath connectedness series spike during high-risk episodes, becomes more stable in lower risk environment and is positively correlated with volatility index and Ted spread, thus, can be considered as a systemic risk indicator in light of Billio et al. (2012). Global currencies tend structure into communities based on connection strength and density. While more links are found related to currencies from emerging markets, G11 currencies are net spreaders of foreign exchange rate returns. Finally, hard currencies including Canadian dollar, Norwegian Krone and Japanese Yen frequently present among the top most connected, though the centrality positions vary over time. |
| Keywords: | conditional granger causality,exchange rates,connectedness,systemic risk |
| Date: | 2018–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01806733&r=knm |
| By: | Daniel Fraiman |
| Abstract: | Consumer markets are quickly growing, creating the need to design new sales mechanisms. Here we introduce a new auction model for selling products in real time and without production limitations. Interested buyers continuously offer bids and if the price is 'right', the bid is accepted. The model exhibits self-organized criticality; it presents a critical price from which a bid is accepted with probability one, and avalanches of sales above this value are observed. We also discuss how to implement the model and consider the impact of information sharing on total income, as well as the impact of setting a base price. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1805.09763&r=knm |
| By: | Langlois, Hugues |
| Abstract: | We provide a new methodology to empirically investigate the respective roles of systematic and idiosyncratic skewness in explaining expected stock returns. Forming a risk factor that captures systematic skewness risk and forming idiosyncratic skewness sorted portfolios only require the ordering of stocks with respect to each skewness measure. Accordingly, we use a large number of predictors to forecast the cross-sectional ranks of systematic and idiosyncratic skewness which are considerably easier to predict than their actual values. Compared to other measures of ex ante systematic skewness, our forecasts create a significant spread in ex post systematic skewness. A predicted systematic skewness risk factor carries a significant risk premium that ranges from 7% to 12% per year and is robust to the inclusion of downside beta, size, value, momentum, profitability, and investment factors. In contrast to systematic skewness, the role of idiosyncratic skewness in pricing stocks is less robust. Finally, we document how the determinants of systematic skewness differ from those of idiosyncratic skewness. |
| Keywords: | Systematic skewness; coskewness; idiosyncratic skewness; large panel regression; forecasting |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2018–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1256&r=knm |
| By: | Cristina Sattarhoff; Marc Gronwald |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new measure for the evaluation of financial market efficiency, the so-called intermittency coefficient. This is a multifractality measure that can quantify the deviation from a random walk within the framework of the multifractal random walk model by Bacry et al. (2001b). While the random walk corresponds to the most genuine form of market efficiency, the larger the value of the intermittency coefficient is, the more inefficient a market would be. In contrast to commonly used methods based on Hurst exponents, the intermittency coefficient is a more powerful tool due to its well-established inference apparatus based on the generalised method of moments estimation technique. In an empirical application using data from the largest currently existing market for tradable pollution permits, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, we show that this market becomes more efficient over time. In addition, the degree of market efficiency is overall similar to that for the US stock market; for one sub-period, the market efficiency is found to be higher. While the first finding is anticipated, the second finding is noteworthy, as various observers expressed concerns with regard to the information efficiency of this newly established artificial market. |
| Keywords: | market efficiency, multifractality, multifractal random walk, European Union Emissions Trading Scheme |
| JEL: | C58 C53 G14 Q02 Q54 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7102&r=knm |
| By: | Yingli Wang; Xiangyin Chen; Xiaoguang Yang; Qingpeng Zhang |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the evolution of Chinese guarantee networks from the angle of sub-patterns. First, we find that the mutual, 2-out-stars and triangle sub-patterns are motifs in 2- and 3-node subgraphs. Considering the heterogeneous financial characteristics of nodes, we find that small firms tend to form a mutual guarantee relationship and large firms are likely to be the guarantors in 2-out-stars sub-patterns. Furthermore, we conduct a dynamic study on 15 sub-patterns, which consist of 2- and 3-node sub-patterns, and find that the subgraphs are highly influenced by the 2008 financial crisis and Chinese stimulus program. More concretely, during the financial crisis, the mutual guarantee relationship decreases, due to the bankruptcy of small firms. Additionally, local interconnection (mutual and triangle sub-patterns) is established with the significant increase in the initiation of the stimulus program. Another important study we conduct is the discovery of functionally important sub-patterns. On the one hand, mutual and some triangle sub-patterns (containing mutual guarantee) are risky patterns with high default probability. However, cyclic triads and fully connected 3-node sub-patterns are most stable in the default process due to the peer monitoring between firms. On the other hand, sub-patterns of edge and 2-out-stars are with lowest contagion capability. Our functional sub-patterns could shed light on the optimal structure design of guarantee networks to reduce the default and contagion probability. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.04351&r=knm |
| By: | Costas Roumanias; Spyros Skouras; Nicos Christodoulakis |
| Abstract: | By local and international standards, Golden Dawn (GD) is at the far end of Extreme Right, yet it has emerged as Greece’s third largest party, gaining most of its electoral support within months, in early 2012. Its electoral rise has been attributed to the severe economic crisis the country had previously and since experienced. We investigate this remarkable case study econometrically, using both panel vote-share, and individual vote-intent regressions. Dramatic changes in parameters provide congruent evidence that GD’s success was due to a change in voter behaviour, rather than changes in individual characteristics or contextual conditions. Around one third of this change was due to GD’s success in taking ownership of the previously ownerless niche issues of immigration and law-and-order; the remaining change is attributed to its success in attracting financially distressed voters and voters fitting a typical Extreme Right demographic. Auxiliary evidence suggests this change was driven by a massive realignment of voters fleeing mainstream parties, after a coalition government imposed harsh austerity measures. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:126&r=knm |
| By: | Jasmine Mondolo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | In the last fifteen years, the literature on international economics and international business has been paying increasing attention to informal institutions and to how they affect a variety of economic variables, inward FDI in particular. The main aims of this work are: to shed more light on a puzzling, elusive concept -informal institutions- also by drawing comparisons with related constructs; to overview the main types of informal institution and their effects on FDI inflows; to conduct a meta-analysis to explore the heterogeneity across empirical studies focusing on the effects of informal institutions on FDI inflows. The main findings of the present work are as follows: according to most of the existing literature, informal institutions, such as trust, social networks and corruption, matter for the purpose of attracting FDI. The sign is significantly determined by the type of informal institution considered. In particular, social networks and factors typically facilitating or in favour of FDI - such as trust and a positive attitude to liberalism - have a significant and positive impact on inward FDI, and this especially holds when the host country is a developing economy. |
| Keywords: | informal institutions, FDI, systematic review |
| JEL: | A13 D02 F21 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0218&r=knm |
| By: | Sandulescu, Paula Mirela; Trojani, Fabio; Vedolin, Andrea |
| Abstract: | We provide a theoretical characterization of international stochastic discount factors (SDFs) in incomplete markets under different degrees of market segmentation. Using 40 years of data on a cross-section of countries, we estimate model-free SDFs and factorize them into permanent and transitory components. We find that large permanent SDF components help to reconcile the low exchange rate volatility, the exchange rate cyclicality, and the forward premium anomaly. However, integrated markets entail highly volatile and almost perfectly comoving international SDFs. In contrast, segmented markets can generate less volatile and more dissimilar SDFs. In quest of relating the SDFs to economic fundamentals, we document strong links between proxies of financial intermediaries' risk-bearing capacity and model-free international SDFs. We interpret this evidence through the lens of an economy with two building blocks: limited participation by households and financiers who face an intermediation friction. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rates; financial intermediaries; market incompleteness; Market Segmentation; Stochastic discount factor |
| JEL: | F31 G15 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12971&r=knm |
| By: | Muhammad, Tsani Abdulhakim; Dhifa, Syahida Alamsyah |
| Abstract: | Abstract Agriculture is the business field recommended by Rasulillah SAW. because of the importance of production factors and the primary food and wealth producing sectors. Without the people who want to farm, there may be no continuation of this human life. No wealth or economy is more important than wealth that can allow the continuation of life (living things need to eat, if food intake has stopped, that is the beginning of the end of life or death). Zakat is one of the pillars of religion. Zakat is differentiated into Zakat Nafs (fitrah) and zakat Maal (treasure). Agricultural produce is a mandatory maal issued zakatnya commonly called zakat agriculture. This journal aims to learn more about the zakat of rice farming in Cileunyi Sub-district, East Bandung. This journal is a field study of qualitative descriptive-inductive. Primary data obtained through interviews while secondary data obtained through literature review. Zakat of agricultural crop calculations should be mastered by every Muslim. |
| Keywords: | Keywords:, agriculture, accounting, haul, nishab, zakat. |
| JEL: | Z1 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87474&r=knm |
| By: | Basten, Christoph (University of Zurich); Guin, Benjamin (Bank of England); Koch, Catherine (Bank for International Settlements) |
| Abstract: | We exploit a unique dataset that features both un-intermediated mortgage requests and independent responses from multiple banks to each request. We show that households typically are not prudent risk managers, but prioritize minimizing current mortgage payments over insurance against future rate increases. Contrary to assumptions in the previous literature, we find that banks do also influence contracted rate fixation periods. They trade off their own exposure to interest rate risk against household requests and against credit risk. |
| Keywords: | Interest rate risk; credit risk; maturity mismatch; duration; fixation period; repricing frequency; fixed-rate mortgage; adjustable rate mortgage |
| JEL: | D14 E43 G21 |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0733&r=knm |
| By: | Stewart, Andrew,; Owens, Rosemary J.; Hewitt, Anne; Nikoloudakis, Irene. |
| Abstract: | In 2012, the International Labour Conference issued a resolution with a call for action to tackle the unprecedented youth employment crisis through a set of policy measures. The resolution provides guiding principles and a package of inter-related policies for countries wanting to take immediate and targeted action to address the crisis of youth labour markets. This paper is part of follow-up action on knowledge building coordinated by the ILO’s Youth Employment Programme (YEP). Together with apprenticeships and temporary jobs, internships (or traineeships as they are often called in Europe) have become an important part of the transition from education to employment, especially in higher-income countries. Concerns have been expressed in recent years about the role of internships in serving as an effective bridge between education and (paid) work. Against that background, and in particular the ILO’s commitment to promote decent work for young people, the objectives of this paper are: •to explain the different forms that internships may take; • to discuss the extent to which different institutional arrangements and design features of internships are conducive to the integration of young people into longer term stable employment; •to provide a comparative overview of the regulation of internships in selected countries; and •to discuss the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular regulatory strategies. |
| Keywords: | appreticenship, youth employment, young worker, transition from school to work, labour policy, labour legislation, comment, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Romania, South Africa, UK, USA |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987592002676&r=knm |
| By: | Ludovic Tangpi |
| Abstract: | Motivated by liquidity risk in mathematical finance, D. Lacker introduced concentration inequalities for risk measures, i.e. upper bounds on the \emph{liquidity risk profile} of a financial loss. We derive these inequalities in the case of time-consistent dynamic risk measures when the filtration is assumed to carry a Brownian motion. The theory of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) and their dual formulation plays a crucial role in our analysis. Natural by-products of concentration of risk measures are a description of the tail behavior of the financial loss and transport-type inequalities in terms of the generator of the BSDE, which in the present case can grow arbitrarily fast. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1805.09014&r=knm |
| By: | Ingo Geishecker (European University Viadrina, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Germany.); Philipp J.H. Schröder (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark); Allan Sørensen (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Isolated single-month one-off export transactions (observed once in a 49-month window) turn out to be the dominant spell length in granular firm-product-destination trade data. Moreover, on average, for an export-active firm, such one-off events generate a significant part of foreign sales. These patterns cannot be explained by the lumpiness of trade (e.g., seasonal shipments), nor do they sit well with available trade models. To reconcile theory with the data, we introduce passive (i.e., buyer-side driven) exporting in addition to proactive exporting. Our empirical investigation establishes novel stylized facts on firm and destination characteristics associated with one-off exporting. |
| JEL: | F14 F12 L10 D40 |
| Date: | 2018–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2018-05&r=knm |
| By: | Steffen Q. Mueller (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the forecasting of Major League Baseball game ticket sales and identifies important attendance predictors by means of random forests that are grown from classification and regression trees (CART) and conditional inference trees. Unlike previous studies that predict sport demand, I consider different forecasting horizons and only use information that is publicly accessible in advance of a game or season. Models are trained using data from 2013 to 2014 to make predictions for the 2015 regular season. The static within-season approach is complemented by a dynamic month-ahead forecasting strategy. Out-of-sample performance is evaluated for individual teams and tested against least-squares regression and a naive lagged attendance forecast. My empirical results show high variation in team-specific prediction accuracy with respect to both models and forecasting horizons. Linear and tree-ensemble models, on average, do not vary substantially in predictive accuracy; however, OLS regression fails to account for various team-specific peculiarities. |
| Keywords: | Attendance, Major League Baseball, Random forest, Conditional forest, Sport demand, Sports forecasting, Ticket sales, Variable importance |
| JEL: | C44 C53 |
| Date: | 2018–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hce:wpaper:065&r=knm |
| By: | Pierre-Richard Agénor; Luiz A. Pereira da Silva |
| Abstract: | The effects of capital requirements on risk-taking and welfare are studied in a stochastic overlapping generations model of endogenous growth with banking, limited liability, and government guarantees. Capital producers face a choice between a safe technology and a risky (but socially inefficient) technology, and bank risk-taking is endogenous. Setting the capital adequacy ratio above a structural threshold can eliminate the equilibrium with risky loans (and thus inefficient risk-taking), but numerical simulations show that this may entail a welfare loss. In addition, the optimal ratio may be too high in practice and may concomitantly require a broadening of the perimeter of regulation and a strengthening of financial supervision to prevent disintermediation and distortions in financial markets. |
| Keywords: | Capital Requirements, Bank risk-taking, Investment, Financial Stability, Economic Growth, Capital Goods, Financial Regulation, Financial Intermediaries, Financial Markets, risky investments, financial stability, financial regulation |
| JEL: | O41 G28 E44 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:8206&r=knm |
| By: | Rivers, Nicholas; Shaffer, Blake |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how climate change will affect both the level and timing of future electricity demand across Canada. Using an original dataset of hourly electricity demand across all Canadian provinces combined with household-level microdata on air conditioner ownership, we estimate temperature responsiveness including both the direct effect of temperature on demand for cooling services, as well as the indirect effect of increasing the stock of temperature-sensitive durables, such as air conditioners. We find only a small increase in total demand by end-century, although the result differs across provinces. The small aggregate result reflects the mitigating effect of rising temperature in a cold country such as Canada, whereby increases in electricity demand for air conditioning as summer temperatures rise is largely offset by reduced winter heating demand. Although we project limited change in overall electricity demand, we do project changes in the timing of demand, both seasonally and diurnally. In particular, we find seasonal peaks shift from winter to summer in most regions, as well as a large increase in intraday ramping requirements—the difference between minimum and maximum demand within a day—suggesting electricity systems of the future will place an even greater value on storage and flexibility. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, future electricity demand, diurnal shape |
| JEL: | Q40 Q47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87309&r=knm |
| By: | Fortin, Alain-Philippe (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management); Simonato, Jean-Guy (HEC Montreal, Department of Finance); Dionne, Georges (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management) |
| Abstract: | When forecasting the market risk of stock portfolios, is a univariate or a multivariate modeling approach more effective? This question is examined in the context of forecasting the one-week-ahead Expected Shortfall for a portfolio equally invested in the Fama-French and momentum factors. Applying extensive tests and comparisons, we find that in most cases there are no statistically significant differences between the forecasting accuracy of the two approaches. This suggests that univariate models, which are more parsimonious and simpler to implement than multivariate models, can be used to forecast the downsize risk of equity portfolios without losses in precision. |
| Keywords: | Value-at-Risk; Expected Shortfall; Conditional Value-at-Risk; Elicitability; model comparison; backtesting; Fama-French and momentum factors |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C52 C53 G17 |
| Date: | 2018–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2018_004&r=knm |
| By: | Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Inagaki, Yugo (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The decline in solar module prices is one of the key drivers behind the growth of the solar energy market. Thus, the price reduction mechanism in solar modules has become an important topic as the role of solar electricity in the overall energy supply and the market value of solar modules grow globally. Many empirical analyses have been carried out to unveil the mechanism behind this price reduction. However, the research performed on the price reduction mechanism of solar modules over the years have focused purely on the technological aspect of the manufacturing. When analyzing price, the influence of economic factors such as interest rate and exchange rate must also be taken into consideration to achieve a precise analysis. We use an oligopolistic model and econometric method to determine the economic factors that have an influence on solar module prices. |
| Keywords: | solar modules; renewable energy; price reduction |
| JEL: | E43 Q21 Q28 |
| Date: | 2018–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0836&r=knm |
| By: | Daisuke, Ikeda (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | I develop a general equilibrium model that features endogenous bank runs in a global game framework. A bank run probability — systemic risk — is increasing in bank leverage and decreasing in bank liquid asset holdings. Bank risk shifting and pecuniary externalities induce excessive leverage and insufficient liquidity, resulting in elevated systemic risk from a social welfare viewpoint. Addressing the inefficiencies requires prudential tools on both leverage and liquidity. Imposing one tool only causes risk migration: banks respond by taking more risk in another area. I extend the model and study risk migration in other fields including sectoral lending, concentration risk and shadow banking. |
| Keywords: | Bank runs; global games; capital and liquidity requirements; risk migration |
| JEL: | E44 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0732&r=knm |
| By: | Blake C. Stacey; Yaneer Bar-Yam |
| Abstract: | On the fifth of February, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,175.21 points, the largest single-day fall in history in raw point terms. This followed a 666-point loss on the second, and another drop of over a thousand points occurred three days later. It is natural to ask whether these events indicate a transition to a new regime of market behavior, particularly given the dramatic fluctuations --- both gains and losses --- in the weeks since. To illuminate this matter, we can apply a model grounded in the science of complex systems, a model that demonstrated considerable success at unraveling the stock-market dynamics from the 1980s through the 2000s. By using large-scale comovement of stock prices as an early indicator of unhealthy market dynamics, this work found that abrupt drops in a certain parameter $U$ provide an early warning of single-day panics and economic crises. Decreases in $U$ indicate regimes of "high co-movement", a market behavior that is not the same as volatility, though market volatility can be a component of co-movement. Applying the same analysis to stock-price data from the beginning of 2016 until now, we find that the $U$ value for the period since 5 February is significantly lower than for the period before. This decrease entered the "danger zone" in the last week of May, 2018. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.00529&r=knm |
| By: | Yuichi Ikeda; Hiroshi Iyetomi |
| Abstract: | The interdependent nature of the global economy has become stronger with increases in international trade and investment. We propose a new model to reconstruct the international trade network and associated cost network by maximizing entropy based on local information about inward and outward trade. We show that the trade network can be successfully reconstructed using the proposed model. In addition to this reconstruction, we simulated structural changes in the international trade network caused by changing trade tariffs in the context of the government's trade policy. The simulation for the FOOD category shows that import of FOOD from the U.S. to Japan increase drastically by halving the import cost. Meanwhile, the simulation for the MACHINERY category shows that exports from Japan to the U.S. decrease drastically by doubling the export cost, while exports to the EU increased. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.00605&r=knm |
| By: | Martin Paldam (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the structure of strategies of economic research on a sample of all regular research papers in 10 general interest journals every 5th year from 1997 to 2017. It is 3,415 papers, with an annual upward trend of 3.3%. I have classified the papers into eight categories: The fraction in theory and empirics are almost equal large. Most empiric papers use the classic strategy, which derives an operational model from theory and run regressions. Several trends are highly significant - notably two main ones: The fraction of theoretical papers has fallen by 26 pp (percentage points), while the fraction of papers using the classic strategy has increased by 15 pp. Many papers using the classic strategy have been analyzed using meta-analysis, which show that the typical paper exaggerate the results reported substantially. There is no reason to believe that other strategies have smaller problems. |
| JEL: | A14 B41 |
| Date: | 2018–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2018-04&r=knm |
| By: | Ramon Caminal |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a dynamic duopoly model to examine the provision of new varieties over time. Consumers experience temporary satiation, and hence higher consumption of the current variety lowers demand for future varieties. The equilibrium can be characterized by a combination of monopolistic pricing and nearly zero profits (competitive timing). In particular, if the cost of producing a new variety is not too low then firms tend to avoid head-to-head competition and set the short-run profit-maximizing price. However, firms tend to introduce new varieties as soon as demand has grown sufficiently to cover costs. From a second best perspective, the equilibrium may exhibit excessive product diversity. However, if firms coordinate their frequency of new product introductions, then consumers are likely to be harmed. It is also shown that equilibrium prices are moderated by two factors. First, consumers' option value of waiting reduces their willingness to pay. Second, competition reduces firms' incentives to engage in intertemporal price discrimination. |
| Keywords: | temporary satiation, product diversity, dynamic duopoly, repeat purchases, endogenous timing |
| JEL: | L13 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1045&r=knm |
| By: | Jae Woo Lee; Ashadun Nobi |
| Abstract: | We consider the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the global stock market before, during, and after the crisis. We generate complex networks from a cross-correlation matrix such as the threshold network (TN) and the minimal spanning tree (MST). In the threshold network, we assign a threshold value by using the mean and standard deviation of cross-correlation coefficients. When the threshold is equal to the mean of these coefficients, we observe a giant cluster composed of three economic zones in all three periods. We find that during the crisis, the countries in the Asian zone were weakly connected and those in the American zone were tightly linked to the countries in the European zone. At a large threshold, the three economic zones were fragmented. The European countries connected tightly, but the Asian countries bound weakly. The MST constructed from the distance matrix. In the MST, France remained a hub node in all three periods. The size of the MST shrank slightly during the crisis. We observe a scaling relation between the network distance of nodes from the central hub (France) and the geometrical distance. We observe the topological change of the financial network structure during the global financial crisis. The TN and MST are complementary roles to understand the connecting structure of financial complex networks. The TN reveals to observe the clustering effects and robustness of the cluster during the financial crisis. The MST shows the central hub and connecting node among the economic zones. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.04363&r=knm |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This publication is available in German language only. For a brief English summary see further below. MOSOE Konjunkturzenit überschritten Die jüngsten Statistiken deuten auf ein weiterhin robustes BIP-Wachstum in den meisten Ländern Mittel‑, Ost- und Südosteuropas (MOSOEL) hin. Der konjunkturelle Höhepunkt scheint allerdings bereits überschritten zu sein. Einerseits lässt die Dynamik der privaten Konsumnachfrage leicht nach, andererseits dämpft die Konjunkturabkühlung im Euro-Raum die Exportentwicklung vieler MOSOEL. Die Investitionen steigen weiterhin kräftig an, getrieben in erster Linie von EU-Transfers in der EU-MOE-Region und von ausländischen Direktinvestitionen im Westbalkan. Ein deutlicher Wachstumseinbruch ist heuer nur in Rumänien und der Türkei zu erwarten – Ländern, deren Wirtschaft sich bislang in einem Zustand der „Überhitzung“ befand. Vor dem Hintergrund der österreichischen EU-Ratspräsidentschaft und divergierender Handelspolitiken der weltgrößten Volkswirtschaften werden auch die immer engeren wirtschaftlichen Verflechtungen Österreichs mit den MOSOEL analysiert. Insbesondere die Visegrád-Staaten gewinnen für den österreichischen Güterhandel, Tourismus und auch als Investitionsstandorte an Gewicht. Österreich präsentiert sich als Top-10-Exportdestination für sieben der MOSOEL, für acht zählt es zu den zehn wichtigsten Ländern für Importe, und für siebzehn Länder rangiert Österreich unter den Top-10-Investoren. English Summary CESEE Growth has passed its peak The latest statistics point to ongoing robust GDP growth in most countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE). However, the growth peak seems to have already been passed. On the one hand, private consumer demand is weakening slightly; on the other hand, the economic slowdown in the eurozone is dampening the export performance of many CESEE countries. Investment continues to grow strongly, driven primarily by EU transfers in the EU-CEE and by foreign direct investment in the Western Balkans. A significant slump in growth this year can only be expected in Romania and Turkey, countries whose economies have been ‘overheating’. In the context of the Austrian Presidency of the Council of the European Union and diverging trade policies of the two largest economies in the world, we analyse the deepening economic relations between Austria and the CESEE countries. The Visegrád states in particular are gaining weight for Austrian trade in goods, tourism and as FDI destinations. From the perspective of CESEE, Austria represents a top 10 export destination for seven countries, a top 10 source country for imports for eight countries and a top 10 investor for even seventeen countries in the region. |
| Keywords: | Konjunkturprognose, Mittelosteuropa, Westbalkan, MOSOEL, Österreich, EU Ratsvorsitz, internationaler Handel, Investitionen, FDI, Digitalisierung, Migration; Economic forecast, Central and Eastern Europe, Western Balkans, CESEE, Austria, Presidency of the EU Council, international trade, investment, FDI, digitalisation, migration |
| JEL: | E20 E66 O52 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:10&r=knm |
| By: | Pilar Cuadrado (Banco de España); Aitor Lacuesta (Banco de España); María de los Llanos Matea (Banco de España); F. Javier Palencia-González (UNED) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how the contract structure between gas stations and the wholesale operator affects price strategies. Using daily data on prices of different gas stations the paper finds that independent dealers charge lower margins than other dealers with different contracts. One potential hypothesis is that this is the case because independent stations react more to the number of competitors. We use the introduction of a discretional regional excise duty (IVMDH) on gas stations to check the reaction of markups to changes in marginal costs of the actual number of competitors. Results are consistent with the idea that regardless the type of contract all dealers react notably to the increases in relative marginal costs by decreasing average markups. We use those results to interpret the inexistent reduction in markups that followed a change in the Spanish regulation that took place in 2013 fostering competition in the retail sector. One potential interpretation is that the big increase in independent stations following the reform was not considered an increase in actual competition for most of the incumbent stations. |
| Keywords: | competition, oligopoly, pass-through, gasoline, excise duty |
| JEL: | D40 H22 H23 L13 Q41 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1818&r=knm |
| By: | Olivier Bargain (UB - Université de Bordeaux); Delphine Boutin (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hugues Champeaux (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Egyptian women have played an unprecedented role in the Arab Spring democratic movement, possibly changing women’s perception about their own rights and role. We question whether these events have translated into better outcomes within Egyptian households. We conjecture that potential changes must have been heterogeneous and depended on the local intensity of protests and women’s participation over 2011-13. We exploit the geographical heterogeneity along these two margins to conduct a double difference analysis using data surrounding the period. We find a significant improvement in women’s final say regarding decisions on health, socialization and household expenditure, as well as a decline in the acceptation of domestic violence and girls’ circumcision, in the regions most affected by the protests. This effect is not due to particular regional patterns or pre-existing trends in empowerment. It is also robust to alternative treatment definitions and confirmed by triple difference estimations. We confront our main interpretation to alternative mechanisms that could have explained this effect. |
| Keywords: | Arab Spring, Revolutions, Gender, Empowerment, Egypt. |
| Date: | 2018–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01804380&r=knm |
| By: | Nicola Düll (OECD); Céline Thévenot (OECD); Herwig Immervoll (OECD); James Browne (OECD); Rodrigo Fernandez (OECD); Dirk Neumann (OECD); Daniele Pacifico (OECD) |
| Abstract: | .In the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis, large shares of working-age individuals in Portugal either did not work or only to a limited extent. As the employment rate bottomed out in 2013, 29% were without employment during the entire year, and a further 10% had weak labour-market attachment, working only a fraction of the year, or on restricted working hours. This paper applies a novel method for measuring and visualising employment barriers of individuals with no or weak labour-market attachment, using household micro-data. It first develops indicators to quantify employment obstacles under three broad headings: (i) work-related capabilities, (ii) incentives, and (iii) employment opportunities. It then uses these indicators in conjunction with a statistical clustering approach to identify unobserved (“latent”) groups of individuals facing similar combinations of barriers. The resulting typology of labour-market difficulties provides insights on the most pressing policy priorities in supporting different groups into employment. A detailed policy discussion illustrates how these empirical results can inform people-centred assessments of existing labour-market integration measures and of key challenges across different policy areas and institutions. The most common employment obstacles in Portugal were low education/skills, a lack of recent work experience, scarce job opportunities and health problems. Financial disincentives and care responsibilities were less widespread overall, although important barriers for some groups. A striking finding is that 45% of jobless or low-intensity workers face three or more simultaneous barriers, highlighting the limits of narrow policy approaches that focus on subsets of these employment obstacles in isolation. |
| JEL: | C38 H31 J2 J6 J8 |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:210-en&r=knm |
| By: | Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Universidad Carlos III, Groningen, and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a long-run view of well-being inequality at world scale based on a new historical dataset. Trends in social dimensions alter the view on inequality derived from per capita GDP. While in terms of income, inequality increased until the third quarter of the twentieth century; in terms of well-being, inequality fell steadily since World War I. The spread of mass primary education and the health transitions were its main drivers. The gap between the West and the Rest explains only partially the evolution of well-being inequality, as the dispersion within the developing regions has increasingly determined its evolution. |
| Keywords: | Well-being, Inequality, Life Expectancy, Health Transition, Education, per capita GDP |
| JEL: | I00 N30 O15 O50 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0131&r=knm |
| By: | 河内山, 拓磨; 石田, 惣平 |
| Abstract: | 本論文の目的は，経営者能力の観点から財務的意思決定が企業の将来業績に及ぼす影響について実証的に検討することにある。とりわけ，本研究では，Demerjian et al.（2012）で提示された経営者能力の指標を援用し，能力の高い経営者が行う財務的意思決定が当該企業の将来業績とどのように結びつくかを分析する。主な検証結果は以下のように要約される。第 1 に，能力の高い経営者が行う投資政策は将来業績と正の関係性を持つことが示され，能力の高い経営者が行う投資政策とりわけ資本的支出は将来業績を向上させるものであることが分かった。第 2 に，能力の高い経営者が行う株主還元政策は将来業績と正の関係性を持つことが示され，当該株主還元政策は将来業績に対する信頼できるシグナルとなることが示された。最後に，追加分析からは経営者の能力が高いほど保有現金が株式市場で相対的に高く評価されることが明らかとなった。以上の発見事項は，能力の高い経営者は効果的に投資を行い， そして，将来業績に関する信頼できるシグナルを資本市場に発信する傾向にあることから， 当該経営者が保有する現金は高く評価されることを示唆している。, We examine whether and how financial policies by high-ability managers relate to future performance. Many finance theories have predicted that financial policies, such as corporate investments and dividends, are function of firm-specific characteristics and that the efficacy of these policies is less relevant to managers’ characteristics. Using a measurement of managerial ability, we extend the literature by providing evidence that the outcome of financial policies differs with managerial ability. We find that (1) investments by high-ability managers are more likely to improve future performance, (2) dividends by high-ability managers are positively related to future performance, and (3) the marginal value of cash is greater for firms with high-ability managers. Our evidence sheds a new light on the effect of managerial ability on organizational outcome and the linkage between financial policies and future performance. |
| Keywords: | 経営者能力, 財務的意思決定, 投資, 配当, 株主還元, 現金保有, Managerial ability, financial policy, investment, dividend, cash-holding |
| JEL: | M10 M41 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hmicwp:222&r=knm |
| By: | José Jorge (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto, cef.up) |
| Abstract: | In an imperfect information economy with investment complementarities, market-based financial systems suffer from excessive volatility which leads to underinvestment. When financial intermediaries offer returns with low risk, intermediation improves coordination among investors, thereby enhancing efficiency and stabilizing the economy against macroeconomic shocks, entailing an ex ante Pareto improvement compared to the market-based allocation. However, the position of the intermediaries is fragile and competition from financial markets constrains intermediaries so that they have no incentives to improve the market allocation. Possible solutions to this problem and the optimal design of regulation are discussed. Other types of financial architecture, in which intermediation does not play a stabilizing role, are investigated. |
| Keywords: | Banking, Financial System, Systematic Risk, Global Games. |
| JEL: | G21 E44 G28 C72 O16 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:cetedp:1805&r=knm |
| By: | Mariacristina De Nardi (UCL, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, IFS, CEPR, and NBER); Giulio Fella (Queen Mary University of London, CFM, and IFS) |
| Abstract: | Earnings dynamics are much richer than typically assumed in macro models with heterogeneous agents. This holds for individual-pre-tax and household-post-tax earnings and across administrative (Social Security Administration) and survey (Panel Study of Income Dynamics) data. We study the implications of two processes for household, post-tax earnings in a standard life-cycle model: a canonical earnings process (that includes a persistent and a transitory shock) and a rich earnings dynamics process (that allows for age-dependence of moments, non-normality, and nonlinearity in previous earnings and age). Allowing for richer earnings dynamics implies a substantially better t of the evolution of cross-sectional consumption inequality over the life cycle and of the individual-level degree of consumption insurance against persistent earnings shocks. Richer earnings dynamics also imply lower welfare costs of earnings risk, but, as the canonical earnings process, do not generate enough concentration at the upper tail of the wealth distribution. |
| Keywords: | Earnings risk, savings, consumption, inequality, life cycle |
| JEL: | D14 D31 E21 J31 |
| Date: | 2018–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:860&r=knm |
| By: | Ole Boysen (School of Agriculture and Food Science, University College Dublin, Ireland); Kirsten Boysen-Urban (International Agricultural Trade and Food Security, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany.); Harvey Bradford; Jean Balié (Monitoring and Analysing Food and Agricultural Policies (MAFAP), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.) |
| Abstract: | The consumption of highly processed food has been singled out as one of the factors responsible for the rapidly increasing prevalence of obesity and its associated non-communicable diseases and costs. While obesity prevalence is still comparatively low in lower-income sub-Saharan Africa(SSA), development prospects in this region render its markets especially interesting for these foods, whose consumption is already growing at higher rates than in developed countries. This might be reflected in the massive rise in obesity prevalence growth rates in SSA over the past decade, which has occurred while many of these countries are simultaneously struggling with high undernutrition prevalence. With a focus on SSA, this study econometrically investigates the effect of higher import tariffs on highly processed vis-à-vis less-processed foods with respect to their impacts on obesity and underweight prevalence, utilizing a newly constructed cross-country panel dataset. The effects of the tariff differences are found to be significant and substantial in cases differentiated by income level of the country as well as by gender. The results more generally show that policies affecting the consumer price differential between the two food groups are effective for influencing obesity and underweight prevalence and that these two issues cannot be treated separately. |
| Keywords: | highly processed foods, obesity, underweight, food policies, taxes, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2018–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201812&r=knm |
| By: | Tobin, Damian (Asian Development Bank Institute); Volz, Ulrich (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We look at the development and transformation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s financial system since the start of economic and financial reforms in 1978. We describe how despite the rapid development of capital markets since the 1990s, the PRC’s financial system continues to be dominated by bank lending. Reforms have not eliminated the credit expansion impetus of large commercial banks, while the effectiveness of capital-based constraints and administrative measures is far below potential. Large state-owned banks have become important players in bond and equity markets, as well as important sources of liquidity provision for smaller commercial banks and a range of non-bank financial institutions through a combination of inter-bank funding activities, wealth management products, and shadow banking/grey capital market activities. The importance of non-bank financial institutions has also continued to grow. Off-shore markets have increased the overseas holdings of financial assets, but their potential remains limited by capital controls and the fragility of the domestic financial system. An unintended consequence of this is that although the PRC’s state run financial system has become more complex and more interconnected domestically, foreign participation remains low. |
| Keywords: | China; financial markets; financial institutions; economic transformation |
| JEL: | G01 G02 O16 P34 |
| Date: | 2018–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0825&r=knm |
| By: | Martin Boyer; Philippe De Donder; Claude Fluet; Marie-Louise Leroux; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | This paper reports survey evidence on long-term care (LTC) risk misperceptions and demand for long-term care insurance (LTCI) in Canada. LTC risk misperceptions is divided into three different risks: needing help for at least one activity of daily life, needing access to a nursing home, and living to be 85 years old. We contrast subjective (i.e. stated) probabilities with actual probabilities for these three dimensions. We first provide descriptive statistics of how objective and subjective probabilities differ and correlate to each other. Second, we study cross-correlations between different types of risks. We then study how risk misperceptions correlate with individual characteristics, and evaluate how misperceptions affect intentions and actual purchase of LTCI. Our conclusions are two-fold. First, we find that most subjects are not well informed about their individual LTC risks, making it difficult for them to take the correct LTCI decisions. Second, and even though misperceptions explain an individuals actual or his intentions to take-up LTCI, misperceptions are unlikely to explain the poor take-up rate of LTCI in our sample. |
| Keywords: | long-term care insurance puzzle, disability, misperceptions, subjective probability |
| JEL: | D91 I13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7100&r=knm |
| By: | Baker, Sarah S.; López-Salido, J David; Nelson, Edward |
| Abstract: | We argue that Schularick and Taylor's (2012) comparison of credit growth and monetary growth as financial-crisis predictors does not necessarily provide a valid basis for achieving one of their stated intentions: evaluating the relative merits of the "money view" and "credit view" as accounts of macroeconomic outcomes. Our own analysis of the postwar evidence suggests that money outperforms credit in predicting economic downturns in the 14 countries in Schularick and Taylor's dataset. This contrasts with Schularick and Taylor's (2012) highly negative verdict on the money view. In accounting for the difference in findings, we first explain that Schularick and Taylor's characterization of the money view is defective, both because their criterion for its validity (that rapid monetary growth predicts financial crises) is misplaced, and because they incorrectly take the money view's proponents as relying on the notion that monetary aggregates are a good proxy for credit aggregates. In fact, the money view of Friedman and Schwartz does not predict an automatic relationship between rapid monetary growth and (financial or economic) downturns, nor does it rest on money being a good proxy for credit. We further show that Schularick and Taylor's data on money have systematic faults. For our reexamination of the evidence, we have constructed new, and more reliable, annual data on money for the countries studied by Schularick and Taylor. |
| Keywords: | credit view; Financial crises; money view; Recessions |
| JEL: | E32 E51 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12982&r=knm |
| By: | Moisés Obaco (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 690 (08034), Barcelona, Spain.); Juan Pablo Díaz-Sánchez (Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Facultad de Ciencias, Quito, Ecuador.) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the urbanization of Ecuador in the period 1950 – 2010 under the Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) definition. When Ecuadorian FUAs population evolution over time is explored, it is possible to observe that the urbanization of Ecuador had its peak between 1960 and 1980. Moreover, the highest increase of population in recent decades is mostly driven by the urban growth of small FUAs. In addition, the analysis suggests that the FUAs in Ecuador are in line with the size and structure of the FUAs of a similar developing country, Colombia, and the whole OECD sample of FUAs. Finally, it is pointed that the population of Ecuador is concentrated in the FUAs of metropolitan size (1.5 million of inhabitants or more), which are below the average of the metropolitan areas of the OECD. |
| Keywords: | Developing economies, Ecuador, FUAs, physical well-being, slum index, urbanization. JEL classification:R12, R23. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:201814&r=knm |
| By: | Moisés Obaco (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Juan Pablo Díaz-Sánchez (Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Facultad de Ciencias.) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the urbanization of Ecuador in the period 1950 – 2010 under the Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) definition. When Ecuadorian FUAs population evolution over time is explored, it is possible to observe that the urbanization of Ecuador had its peak between 1960 and 1980. Moreover, the highest increase of population in recent decades is mostly driven by the urban growth of small FUAs. In addition, the analysis suggests that the FUAs in Ecuador are in line with the size and structure of the FUAs of a similar developing country, Colombia, and the whole OECD sample of FUAs. Finally, it is pointed that the population of Ecuador is concentrated in the FUAs of metropolitan size (1.5 million of inhabitants or more), which are below the average of the metropolitan areas of the OECD. |
| Keywords: | Developing economies, Ecuador, FUAs, physical well-being, slum index, urbanization JEL classification: R12, R23 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201807&r=knm |
| By: | Jie He (Département d'économique, École de gestion, Université de Sherbrooke); Jérôme Dupras (UQO); Thomas Poder; Thomas G. Poder (Centre de Recherche du CHUS, Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | We conducted a field stated preferences survey to understand the joint and separate effects of payment and provision consequences on hypothetical bias associated with voluntary contribution. Based on four treatment groups and a contingent-ranking willingness to pay (WTP) question, this paper provides some support for “single” knife-edge evidence, which suggests that a respondent facing positive provision consequences will report a significantly higher preference only if the payment consequence is co-presented. For the payment consequence, its negative impact on WTP was independent on the presence of provision consequence; we therefore reject the “double” knife-edge evidence. |
| Keywords: | Housing taxation, banking, dynamic general equilibrium. |
| JEL: | E62 G28 H24 R38 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:18-02&r=knm |
| By: | Pauline Musset (OECD); Lucia Mytna Kurekova (Slovak Governance Institute) |
| Abstract: | Career and education decisions are amongst the most important young people make. Gender, ethnicity and socio-economic factors all strongly affect these choices. Career guidance is both an individual and a social good: it helps individuals to progress in their learning and work, but it also helps the effective functioning of the labour and learning markets, and contributes to a range of social policy goals, including social mobility and equity. This justifies the public investment in career guidance activities. Empirical evidence point towards career guidance services – in school and outside – having a formative influence on young people’s understanding of themselves and the world of work, and can often improve educational, social and economic outcomes. As young people stay in education and training longer and as the labour market becomes more complex, the case for career guidance grows. But what makes for effective provision? This paper looks at the features of good career guidance practice, including the need for schools to begin early and the essential role of exposure to the world of work. |
| Date: | 2018–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:175-en&r=knm |
| By: | Diewert, Erwin; FEENSTRA, Robert |
| Abstract: | A major challenge facing statistical agencies is the problem of adjusting price and quantity indexes for changes in the availability of commodities. This problem arises in the scanner data context as products in a commodity stratum appear and disappear in retail outlets. Hicks suggested a reservation price methodology for dealing with this problem in the context of the economic approach to index number theory. Feenstra and Hausman suggested specific methods for implementing the Hicksian approach. The present paper evaluates these approaches and suggests some alternative approaches to the estimation of reservation prices. The various approaches are implemented using some scanner data on frozen juice products that are available online. |
| Keywords: | Hicksian reservation prices, virtual prices, Laspeyres, Paasche, Fisher |
| JEL: | C33 C43 C81 D11 D60 E31 |
| Date: | 2018–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubc:pmicro:erwin_diewert-2018-3&r=knm |
| By: | Jan Pablo Burgard; Matthias Neuenkirch; Matthias Nöckel |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive (Logit-MVAR) model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 1999-2015. MVARs allow us to differentiate between different states of the economy. In our model, the time-varying state weights are determined by an underlying logit model. In contrast to other classes of non-linear VARs, the regime affiliation is neither strictly binary, nor binary with a transition period, and based on multiple variables. We show that monetary policy transmission in the euro area can indeed be described as a mixture of two states. The first (second) state with an overall share of 84% (16%) can be interpreted as a “normal state” (“crisis state”). In both states, output and prices are found to decrease after monetary policy shocks. During “crisis times” the contraction is much stronger, as the peak effect is roughly one-and-a-half times as large when compared to “normal times.” In contrast, the effect of monetary policy shocks is less enduring in crisis times. Both findings provide a strong indication that the transmission mechanism is indeed different for the euro area during times of economic and financial distress. |
| Keywords: | economic and financial crisis, euro area, mixture VAR, monetary policy transmission, state-dependency |
| JEL: | C32 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7074&r=knm |
| By: | Alberto Martín; Enrique Moral-Benito; Tom Schmitz |
| Abstract: | What are the effects of a housing bubble on the rest of the economy? We show that if firms and banks face collateral constraints, a housing bubble initially raises credit demand by housing firms while leaving credit supply unaffected. It therefore crowds out credit to non-housing firms. If time passes and the bubble lasts, however, housing firms eventually pay back their higher loans. This leads to an increase in banks’ net worth and thus to an expansion in their supply of credit to all firms: crowding-out gives way to crowding-in. These predictions are confirmed by empirical evidence from the recent Spanish housing bubble. In the early years of the bubble, non-housing firms reduced their credit from banks that were more exposed to the bubble, and firms that were more exposed to these banks had lower credit and output growth. In its last years, these effects were reversed. |
| Keywords: | housing bubble, credit, investment, financial frictions, financial transmission, Spain |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1044&r=knm |
| By: | Buch, Claudia M.; Vogel, Edgar; Weigert, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Macroprudential policy is a relatively new policy field. Its goal is to preserve financial stability and to prevent the build-up of systemic risk that may have adverse effects for the functioning of the financial system and for the real economy. New institutions have been tasked with the implementation of macroprudential policies, and new policy instruments have been introduced. Nonetheless, uncertainty about the state of the financial system and the effects and effectiveness of these policy instruments is high. This uncertainty entails two risks: the risk of acting too late (inaction bias) and the risk of choosing an inappropriate instrument or inadequate calibration. In this paper, we argue that both risks can be mitigated if macroprudential policy is embedded in a structured policy process. Such a policy process involves four steps: defining policy objectives for macroprudential policies, choosing intermediate objectives and appropriate indicators, linking instruments to these indicators through ex-ante evaluation studies, and analyzing the effects of these policies through ex-post evaluation studies. We argue that the infrastructure for this policy process can be further improved by providing data for policy evaluation, establishing or strengthening legal mandates for policy evaluation, establishing mechanisms for international cooperation, and building up repositories of evaluation studies. JEL Classification: G01, F34, G21 |
| Keywords: | financial regulation, macroprudential policy, policy evaluation |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:201876&r=knm |
| By: | James Browne (OECD); Herwig Immervoll (OECD); Rodrigo Fernandez (OECD); Dirk Neumann (OECD); Daniele Pacifico (OECD); Céline Thévenot (OECD) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis, large shares of working-age individuals in Estonia either did not work or only to a limited extent. By 2013, several years after the start of the labour-market recovery, 18% were still without employment during the entire year, and a further 13% had weak labour-market attachment, working only a fraction of the year, or on restricted working hours. This paper applies a novel method for measuring and visualising employment barriers of individuals with no or weak labour-market attachment, using household micro-data. It first develops indicators to quantify employment obstacles under three broad headings: (i) work-related capabilities, (ii) incentives, and (iii) employment opportunities. It then uses these indicators in conjunction with a statistical clustering approach to identify unobserved (“latent”) groups of individuals facing similar combinations of barriers. The resulting typology of labour-market difficulties provides insights on the most pressing policy priorities in supporting different groups into employment. A detailed policy discussion illustrates how the empirical results can inform people-centred assessments of existing labour-market integration measures and of key challenges across different policy areas and institutions. The most common employment obstacles in Estonia were low skill levels, health limitations and limited work experience. Financial disincentives, care responsibilities and scarce job opportunities were less widespread overall, although important barriers for some groups. A notable finding is that almost one third of jobless or low-intensity workers face three or more simultaneous barriers, highlighting the limits of narrow policy approaches that focus on subsets of these employment obstacles in isolation. |
| JEL: | C38 H31 J2 J6 J8 |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:206-en&r=knm |
| By: | Michael Anyadike-Danes; Carl Magnus Bjuggren; Michel Dumont; Sandra Gottschalk; Werner Hölzl (WIFO); Dan Johansson; Mika Maliranta; Anja Myrann; Kristian Nielsen; Guanyu Zheng |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses three simple questions: how should the contribution of high-growth firms to job creation be measured? how much does this contribution vary across countries? to what extent does the cross-country variation depend on variation in the proportion of high-growth firms in the business population? The first is a methodological question which we answer using a more highly articulated version of the standard job creation and destruction accounts. The other two are empirical questions which we answer using a purpose-built data set assembled from national firm-level sources and covering nine countries, spanning the ten three year periods from 2000-2003 to 2009-2012. The basic principle governing the development of the accounting framework is the choice of appropriate comparators. Firstly, when measuring contributions to job creation, we should focus on just job creating firms, otherwise we are summing over contributions from firms with positive, zero, and negative job creation numbers. Secondly, because we know growth depends in part on size, the "natural" comparison for high-growth firms is with job creation by similar-sized firms which simply did not grow as fast as high-growth firms. However, we also show how the measurement framework can be further extended to include, for example, a consistent measure of the contribution of small job creating firms. On the empirical side, we find that the high-growth firm share of job creation by large job creating firms varies across countries by a factor of 2, from around one third to two thirds. A relatively small proportion of this cross-country variation is accounted for by variations in the influence of high-growth firms on job creation. On average high-growth firms generated between three or four times as many jobs as large non-high-growth job creating firms, but this ratio is relatively similar across countries. The bulk of the cross-country variation in high-growth firm contribution to job creation is accounted for by the relative abundance (or rarity) of high-growth firms. Moreover, we also show that the measurement of abundance depends upon the choice of measurement framework: the "winner" of a cross-national high-growth firm "beauty contest" on one measure will not necessarily be the winner on another. |
| Keywords: | high-growth firms, firm growth, job creation |
| Date: | 2018–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2018:i:563&r=knm |
| By: | Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises when the frequency of the variable to be nowcast, such as GDP, is quarterly, while that of the underlying panel data is monthly; and the latter contains both survey and macroeconomic data. These two categories of data have different properties regarding timeliness and quality: the survey data are timely available (but might possess less predictive power), while the macroeconomic data possess more predictive power (but are not timely available because of their publication lags). In our empirical analysis, we use a modified dynamic factor model which takes three refinements for the standard dynamic factor model of Stock and Watson (2002) into account, namely mixed frequency, pre-selections and co-integration among the economic variables. Our main finding from a historical nowcasting simulation based on euro area GDP is that the predictive power of the survey data depends on the economic circumstances, namely, that survey data are more useful in tranquil times, and less so in times of turmoil. |
| Keywords: | nowcasting,dynamic factor model,mixed frequency,pre-selections,co-integration,survey data,trade-off between timeliness and quality,turmoil and tranquility |
| JEL: | C22 C38 C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:102018&r=knm |
| By: | Escudero, Verónica.; Kluve, Jochen.; López Mourelo, Elva.; Pignatti, Clemente. |
| Abstract: | We present a systematic collection and assessment of impact evaluations of active labour market programmes (ALMP) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The paper delineates the strategy to compile a novel meta database and provides a narrative review of 51 studies. Based on these studies, the quantitative analysis extracts a sample of 296 impact estimates, and uses meta regression models to analyse systematic patterns in the data. In addition to analysing earnings and employment outcomes as in previous meta analyses, we also code and investigate measures of job quality, such as the effects on hours worked and formality. We find that ALMPs in LAC are particularly effective in increasing the probability of having a formal job, compared to other outcomes. Our results also show that training programmes are slightly more effective than other types of interventions. Moreover, when looking at the sample of training programmes alone, we observe that formal employment is also the outcome category that is most likely to be impacted positively by these programmes. In terms of targeting, we find that ALMPs in the region work better for women than for men, and for youth compared to prime age workers. Finally, medium-run estimates are not more likely to be positive than short-run estimates, while programmes of short duration (4 months or less) are significantly less likely to produce positive effects compared to longer interventions. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987491702676&r=knm |
| By: | Zhang, Xun (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We make an early attempt to analyze the comprehensive relationship between public educational expenditure and structural change, which is often measured by labor transfer from agricultural sector to industrial sector in developing economies. We construct a two-sector general equilibrium model, showing that in the short term, public educational expenditure mainly acts to crowd out industrial capital accumulation and thus temporarily hinders structural change, while there is an inverted-U relationship between them in the long run, as public educational expenditure helps reduce educational cost of rural residents permanently. The hukou system of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) provides appropriate data to empirically identify this comprehensive relationship. The empirical evidence confirms the theoretical interpretations when we control for confounding factors, take endogeneity of public educational expenditure into account, and investigate the mechanisms behind the relationship. The PRC’s current level of public educational expenditure is still far from its optimal value, as indicated by the inverted-U relationship with structural change, suggesting that the PRC should increase spending on public education, especially for rural residents. |
| Keywords: | public educational expenditure; structural change; crowding-out effect; human capital; People’s Republic of China |
| JEL: | I28 O11 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0831&r=knm |
| By: | Geis, Wido |
| Abstract: | Seit dem hohen Flüchtlingszuzug der Jahre 2015 und 2016 ist die Zahl der nach Deutschland kommenden Geflüchteten deutlich gesunken. Insgesamt wurden im Jahr 2017 rund 187.000 Asylsuchende registriert. 223.000 Personen stellten einen formalen Asylantrag, was nach den Jahren 2015 und 2016 sowie 1991 bis 1993 der sechsthöchste Wert in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik ist. Dabei deutet sich aktuell nur ein leichter weiterer Rückgang an. So liegen die monatlichen Asylbewerberzahlen bereits seit Mitte 2016 durchweg auf einem Niveau zwischen 10.000 und 20.000. Allerdings haben sich die Herkunftsländer deutlich verschoben. Stammte im Jahr 2016 mit 49,1 Prozent noch rund die Hälfte der Asylbewerber aus Syrien und dem Irak, war es im Jahr 2017 mit 33,2 Prozent nur noch ein Drittel. Hingegen ist der Anteil der Afrikaner von 11,0 Prozent auf 23,8 Prozent gestiegen. Insgesamt sind die Herkunftsländer deutlich vielfältiger geworden. Damit einhergehend ist die Anerkennungsquote von 62,4 Prozent im Jahr 2016 über 43,4 Prozent im Jahr 2017 auf nur noch 32,3 Prozent im ersten Quartal 2018 gesunken. Derzeit erhält also die deutliche Mehrheit der Asylsuchenden keinen Schutzstatus. Allerdings hat die Ablehnung des Asylantrags nicht unbedingt zur Folge, dass die betroffenen Personen auch unmittelbar wieder ausreisen. Im Jahr 2017 wurden rund 232.000 Asylanträge abgelehnt, aber nur 52.000 Ausreisen von abgelehnten Asylbewerbern registriert. Der Hauptgrund hierfür dürfte sein, dass ein großer Teil der abgelehnten Asylbewerber Rechtsmittel einlegt. So ist die Zahl der Verfahrensneuzugänge an den Asylkammern der Verwaltungsgerichte zwischen 2015 und 2017 von rund 50.000 auf rund 328.000 gestiegen. Erledigt wurden im Jahr 2017 rund 146.000 Fälle. Dies ist ein ungünstiger Zustand, da grundsätzlich das Bundesamt für Migration und Geflüchtete (BAMF) über die Asylanträge entscheiden sollte und nicht die Verwaltungsgerichte. Daher sollten die Prozesse beim BAMF so optimiert werden, dass die Ansatzpunkte für Klagen minimiert werden, ohne den Geflüchteten dabei den Zugang zu den Rechtsmitteln, der für sie von existenzieller Bedeutung sein kann, zu verbauen. Auch wären Verbesserungen bei der europäischen Zusammenarbeit in der Asylpolitik dringend wünschenswert. Bei den Dublin-Verfahren zeigt sich ein sehr eindrückliches Bild. Im Jahr 2016 hat Deutschland insgesamt rund 54.000 Gesuche auf Übernahme von Asylbewerbern gestellt. 29.000 wurden in den Partnerländern positiv und 20.000 negativ beschieden. Überstellungen erfolgten jedoch im Jahr 2016 nur 8.512. Bei der Integration der Geflüchteten in den Arbeitsmarkt zeigen sich erste Fortschritte. So ist die Beschäftigungsquote von syrischen Staatsangehörigen zwischen März 2016 und Dezember 2017 von 6,9 Prozent auf 19,4 Prozent gestiegen und hat sich damit nahezu verdreifacht. Auch bei Irakern und Afghanen sind seit Mitte letzten Jahres deutliche Anstiege zu verzeichnen. Dennoch liegen die Werte immer noch weniger als halb so hoch wie bei allen Ausländern. Um die Lage weiter zu verbessern, sollte die Integrationspolitik konsequent weiterentwickelt werden. Dabei sollte eine kritische Evaluation der bestehenden Integrationsmaßnahmen erfolgen, um sicherzustellen, dass sie auch tatsächlich effektiv und effizient sind. Ist dies der Fall, sollten sie dauerhaft institutionalisiert werden, soweit nicht bereits geschehen. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:182018&r=knm |
| By: | Elisabeth Bublitz (University of Hamburg); Michael Wyrwich (University of Jena) |
| Abstract: | Could the industrialization reduce social inequalities? We use the rise of office employment in the early 20th century as a historical experiment to study the effect of technological change on labor market access for vulnerable groups. In regions with industries that were strongly connected to the modern office, we find a higher regional labor force participation of disabled people which is explained by better access to the job market for people with physical impairments due to the new office technology. The beneficial employment effect is not distributed equally across gender but is restricted to disabled men. The composition of the workforce in the new white-collar jobs shows no significant differences, implying that vulnerable groups benefitted in similar proportions to workers without health issues. In sum, the second industrialization started to lower labor market entry barriers which gives proof of a market-based leverage effect to foster social inclusiveness. |
| Keywords: | Technological change, labor demand, disability, social inequality |
| JEL: | J14 J22 J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2018–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2018-008&r=knm |
| By: | Langlois, Hugues; Chaieb, Ines; Scaillet, O. |
| Abstract: | We estimate international factor models with time-varying factor exposures and risk premia at the individual stock level using a large unbalanced panel of 58,674 stocks in 46 countries over the 1985-2017 period. We consider market, size, value, momentum, profitability, and investment factors aggregated at the country, regional, and world level. The country market in excess of the world or regional market is required in addition to world or regional factors to capture the factor structure for both developed and emerging markets. We do not reject mixed CAPM models with regional and excess country market factors for 76% of the countries. We do not reject mixed multi-factor models in 80% to 94% of countries. Value and momentum premia show more variability over time and across countries than profitability and investment premia. The excess country market premium is statistically significant in many developed and emerging markets but economically larger in emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | large panel; approximate factor model; risk premium; international asset pricing; market integration |
| JEL: | C12 C13 C23 C51 C52 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2019–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1250&r=knm |
| By: | Andrew Watt; Sebastian Watzka |
| Abstract: | Some important progress has been made since the crisis, belatedly and often imperfectly, in reforming the institutional framework of the Euro Area. However, the existential weaknesses - redenomination risk given doubts about the effectiveness of the Lender-of-Last-Resort function and the inadequacy of measures to address inherent divergence trends between member countries - have not been resolved. For as long as that is so, the euro area will remain on shaky ground. This report reviews proposals to strengthen the institutional setup of the euro area. A package is proposed that would rectify the over-reliance on the ECB as a firefighter, and put euro area institutions and member states - with the involvement of governments, parliaments and social partners - in charge of dealing with intra-euro area imbalances and keeping growth close to potential. The more a preventive approach can be reinforced, the less recourse is needed to euro-level emergency measures, the greater will be the confidence that such measures can be introduced without risking "moral hazard". |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:report:139-2018&r=knm |
| By: | Buch, Claudia (Deutsche Bundesbank); Bussiere, Matthieu (Banque de France); Goldberg, Linda (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Hills, Robert (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the novel results from an internationally coordinated project by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) on the cross-border transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy through banks. Teams from 17 countries use confidential micro-banking data for the years 2000 through 2015 to explore the international transmission of monetary policies of the US, euro area, Japan, and United Kingdom. Two other studies use international data with different degrees of granularity. International spillovers into lending to the private sector do occur, especially for US policies, and bank-specific heterogeneity influences the magnitudes of transmission. The effects are supportive of the international bank lending channel and the portfolio channel of monetary policy transmission. They also show that the frictions that banks face matter; in particular, foreign currency funding and hedging considerations can be a key source of heterogeneity. The forms of bank balance sheet heterogeneity that differentiate spillovers across banks are not uniform across countries. International spillovers into lending can be large for some banks, even while the average international spillovers of policies into non-bank lending generally are not large. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; international spillovers; cross-border transmission; global bank; global financial cycle |
| JEL: | E52 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0731&r=knm |
| By: | David L. Dickinson; David Masclet |
| Abstract: | Anti-social behaviours are costly to organizations, and the ability to identify predictors of such behaviours can be valuable. In this paper, we used a within-subjects laboratory design to study choices in the well-known (hypothetical) Trolley problem as well as in a real payoff moneyburning experiment that can inform our understanding of moral preferences and antisocial behavior. Choices in both environments respond to incentives (i.e., the relative price of the ethical decision). Trolley problem decisions are consistent with previously known results— individuals prefer no action over action, and they prefer to avoid direct over indirect responsibility when negative consequences would be similar in either instance. In analyzing the determinants of anti-social money burning, our data identify money burning due to inequality aversion, but we also find evidence of pure nastiness (burning money of others to increase one’s advantageous inequality). Importantly, we find that willingness to commit ethically dubious acts in the Trolley problem significantly predicts money burning and, more specifically, nastiness. We conclude that choices in hypothetical environments can predict consequential and inefficient antisocial behaviours. Also, utilitarian behaviour in the Trolley dilemma is not linked to antisocial money burning, which contrasts with conclusions in the literature. Key Words: experiments, money burning, ethical dilemmas, anti-social behavioral, trolley problem |
| JEL: | C90 C91 Z10 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:18-05&r=knm |
| By: | Alain Jousten; Mathieu Lefebvre |
| Abstract: | The paper studies the labor market participation of older workers in Belgium over the last 3 decades. It outlines the changes to the institutional framework of relevance for labor market participation and employment. Drawing on data from the European Union Labour Force Survey (LFS) over the period 1983-2013, we provide evidence of the trends in participation in (early-) retirement routes. We also explore how the jobs occupied by older workers have changed over time, both in terms of their “quality” and the “quantity” of work involved. Part-time work is found to become more common, though with different attributes for men and women. |
| JEL: | H55 J11 J21 J26 I38 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24669&r=knm |
| By: | Idit Sohlberg |
| Abstract: | In the past twenty years the number of elderly drivers has increased for two reasons. one is the higher proportion of elderly in the population, and the other is the rise in the share of the elderly who drive. This paper examines the features of their driving and the level of their awareness of problems relating to it, by analysis preference survey that included interviews with 205 drivers aged between 70 and 80. The interviewees exhibited a level of optimism and self confidence in their driving that is out of line with the real situation. There is also a discrepancy between how their driving is viewed by others and their own assessment, and between their self assessment and their assessment of the driving of other elderly drivers, which they rate lower than their own. they attributed great importance to safety feature in cars, although they did not think that they themselves needed them, and most elderly drivers did not think there was any reason that they should stop driving, despite suggestions from family members and others that they should do so. A declared preference survey was undertaken to assess the degree of difficulty elderly drivers attribute to driving conditions. It was found that they are concerned mainly about weather condition, driving at night, and long journeys. Worry about night driving was most marked among women, the oldest drivers, and those who drove less frequently. In light of the findings, imposing greater responsibility on the health system should be considered. Consideration should also be given to issuing partial licenses to the elderly for daytime driving only, or restricted to certain weather conditions, dependent on their medical condition. Such flexibility will enable the elderly to maintain their life style and independence for a longer period on the one hand, and on the other, will minimize the risks to themselves and other. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.03254&r=knm |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Allegret (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Cécile Couharde (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Valérie Mignon (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Tovonony Razafindrabe (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | While the oil currency property is clearly establis hed from a theoretical viewpoint, its existence is less clear-cut in the empirical literature. We investigate the reasons for this apparent puzzle by studying the time-varying nature of the relationship between real effective exchange rates of five oil exporters and the real price of oil in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the last two decades. Accordingly, we rely on a time-varying parameter VAR specification which allows the responses of real exchange rates to different oil price shocks to evolve over time. We find that the reason of the mixed results obtained in the empirical literature is that oil currencies follow different hybrid models in the sense that oil countries’real exchange rates may be driven by one or several sources of oil price shocks that furthermore can vary over time. In addition to structural changes affecting oil countries, structural changes arising from the oil market itself through the various, time-varying sources of oil price shocks are found to be crucial. |
| Keywords: | oil currencies,oil shocks,Time-Varying Parameter VAR model,exchange rates |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01589267&r=knm |
| By: | Jérôme Blanc (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marie Fare (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | "Local currency schemes in search of resources: between experiment and socio-economic models" The way local currency schemes get funded has hardly been studied so far. Yet, the increased role of local governments and private funding challenge their “economic model”. This paper aims at identifying the whole set of resources and expenses of these schemes and what is carried with them, that is, the nature of the project itself. How is the project shaped by the search for a balance between expenses and resources? This leads us to refine the usual tripartition of resources in solidarity-based economy (market / non-market / non-monetary economies). We distinguish four types of resources: market resources, redistributive resourses, resources from the gift and resources from the double quality. We then build three models based on the domination of one type of resources, notably linked to the role of specific actors in the construction of the project. We then analyze their main consequences and notably the feedback effects on the project itself. This eventually leads to emphasize the need for a cooperation between actors so as to make these schemes financially sustainable while pursuing their political project. |
| Abstract: | Peu de travaux se sont penchés sur la manière dont les dispositifs de monnaies locales se financent, alors même que l’entrée progressive de collectivités et de financeurs privés conduit à interpeller leur « modèle économique ». Ce texte vise précisément à identifier les ressources et les dépenses de ces dispositifs ainsi que ce que ces ressources engagent, autrement dit, la nature du projet lui-même. Il s’agit ainsi d’analyser l’enjeu et les difficultés de l’ajustement entre dépenses et ressources au prisme du projet lui-même. Cela nous conduira à affiner la tripartition usuelle dans les travaux relatifs à l’économie solidaire (économie marchande / non marchande / non monétaire). Nous distinguerons quatre types de ressources : marchandes, redistributives, du don et de la double qualité. A partir de ces types de ressources, nous identifierons trois modèles, construits autour de la domination d’un type de ressources, lié notamment à la place de certains acteurs dans la construction du projet. Nous en analysons les principales conséquences et notamment les effets de retour que les ressources peuvent avoir sur le projet lui-même. L’ensemble conduit à souligner la nécessité d’une coopération des acteurs concernés pour pérenniser ces dispositifs dans le maintien de leur projet politique. |
| Keywords: | Hybridization of resources,political project,socio-economic models,Local currencies,Mots-clés : Monnaies locales,modèle socio-économique,projet politique,hybridation des ressources |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01796266&r=knm |
| By: | Rodrigo Fernandez (OECD); Herwig Immervoll (OECD); Daniele Pacifico (OECD); James Browne (OECD); Dirk Neumann (OECD); Céline Thévenot (OECD) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis, large shares of working-age individuals in Spain either did not work or only to a limited extent. As the employment rate bottomed out in 2013, 30% were without employment during the entire year, and a further 15% had weak labour-market attachment, working only a fraction of the year, or on restricted working hours. This paper applies a novel method for measuring and visualising employment barriers of individuals with no or weak labour-market attachment, using household micro-data. It first develops indicators to quantify employment obstacles under three broad headings: (i) work-related capabilities, (ii) incentives, and (iii) employment opportunities. It then uses these indicators in conjunction with a statistical clustering approach to identify unobserved (“latent”) groups of individuals facing similar combinations of barriers. The resulting typology of labour-market difficulties provides insights on the most pressing policy priorities in supporting different groups into employment. A detailed policy discussion illustrates how these empirical results can inform people-centred assessments of existing labour-market integration measures and of key challenges across different policy areas and institutions. The most common employment obstacles in Spain were a lack of work experience, low education and skill levels, and scarce job opportunities. Although financial disincentives, health limitations and care responsibilities were less widespread overall, they remained important barriers for some groups. A striking finding is that 45% of jobless or low-intensity workers face three or more simultaneous barriers, highlighting the limits of narrow policy approaches that focus on subsets of these employment obstacles in isolation. |
| JEL: | C38 H31 J2 J6 J8 |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:207-en&r=knm |
| By: | James Browne (OECD); Herwig Immervoll (OECD); Rodrigo Fernandez (OECD); Dirk Neumann (OECD); Daniele Pacifico (OECD); Céline Thévenot (OECD) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis, large shares of working-age individuals in Ireland either did not work or only to a limited extent. As the labour-market recovery gathered pace during 2013, 32% were without employment during the entire year, and a further 14% had weak labour-market attachment, working only a fraction of the year, or on restricted working hours. This paper applies a novel method for measuring and visualising employment barriers of individuals with no or weak labour-market attachment, using household micro-data. It first develops indicators to quantify employment obstacles under three broad headings: (i) work-related capabilities, (ii) incentives, and (iii) employment opportunities. It then uses these indicators in conjunction with a statistical clustering approach to identify unobserved (“latent”) groups of individuals facing similar combinations of barriers. The resulting typology of labour-market difficulties provides insights on the most pressing policy priorities in supporting different groups into employment. A detailed policy discussion illustrates how the empirical results can inform people-centred assessments of existing labour-market integration measures and of key challenges across different policy areas and institutions. The most common employment obstacles in Ireland were limited work experience, low skill levels, and scarce job opportunities. Although financial disincentives, health problems and care responsibilities were less widespread overall, they remained important barriers for some groups. A notable finding is that just under 40% of jobless or low-intensity workers face three or more simultaneous barriers, highlighting the limits of narrow policy approaches that focus on subsets of these employment obstacles in isolation. |
| JEL: | C38 H31 J2 J6 J8 |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:209-en&r=knm |
| By: | Monras, Joan |
| Abstract: | Internal migration can respond to local shocks through either changes in in- or out-migration rates. This paper documents that most of the response of internal migration is accounted for by variation in in-migration. I develop and estimate a parsimonious general equilibrium dynamic spatial model around this fact. I then use the model to evaluate the speed of convergence and long run change in welfare across metropolitan areas given the heterogeneous incidence of the Great Recession at the local level. The paper shows that while there are some lasting effects of the Great Recession across locations, at least 60 percent of the initial differences potentially dissipate across space within around 10 years. This is true even when locals from the most affected metropolitan areas do not out-migrate in higher proportions in response to local shocks. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration and local labor market dynamics |
| JEL: | F22 J20 J30 J43 J61 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12977&r=knm |
| By: | G. Lanzara; G. A. Minerva |
| Abstract: | Using data on Italian cities, we document that, over the period 2001 – 2011, the number of establishments and employment in some key service industries are positively related to the inflow of tourists. We then build a general equilibrium model of small open cities to study the impact of tourism on endogenous amenities, factors’ allocation across sectors, prices, and welfare. Tourism has two main effects on the urban economy: first, consistently with the observed pattern in the data, it increases the number of firms (an endogenous consumption amenity) and employment in the non-tradable sector; second, it increases prices. In the model tourism may hurt the resident population: with unequal land endowments, poorer residents are hurt by tourism because the rise in city prices offsets the positive impact on the urban consumption amenity. Along with several other extensions to the baseline model, we study the interplay of historical (exogenous) amenities, tourism and residents welfare in a system of two cities. |
| JEL: | R13 R31 R32 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1123&r=knm |
| By: | Jean-Luc Gaffard (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Mauro Napoletano (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the main building blocks of the theoretical models underlying the monetary policy consensus before the Great Recession. We highlight how the failure of these models to prevent the crisis and to provide guidance during the recession were due to the excessive confidence in the ability of markets to coordinate demand and supply, and to the neglect of the role of finance. Furthermore, we outline the main elements of an alternative approach to monetary policy that put emphasis on the processes driving coordination in markets, and on the externalities transmitted by financial inter-linkages. Many elements of this new approach are captured by new classes of models, namely, agent-based and financial network models. We discuss some insights from these models for the conduct of monetary policy, and for its interactions with fiscal and macroprudential policies. |
| Keywords: | Output-inflation dynamics; New keynesian models; Disequilibrium analysis; Agent based models; Fiscal monetary policy interactions; Quantitative easing policies |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E5 E61 E62 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3tl6t49e929fla0aa2ukppot8n&r=knm |
| By: | Crump, Richard K. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Giannone, Domenico (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Hundtofte , Sean (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | We show that realized volatility, especially the realized volatility of financial sector stock returns, has strong predictive content for the future distribution of market returns. This is a robust feature of the last century of U.S. data and, most importantly, can be exploited in real time. Current realized volatility has the most information content on the uncertainty of future returns, whereas it has only limited content about the location of the future return distribution. When volatility is low, the predicted distribution of returns is less dispersed and probabilistic forecasts are sharper. Given this finding on the importance of financial sector volatility not just to financial equity return uncertainty but to the broader market, we test for changes in the realized volatility of banks over a $50 billion threshold associated with more stringent Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank) requirements. We find that the equity volatility of these large banks is differentially lower by 9 percentage points after Dodd-Frank compared to pre-crisis levels, controlling for changes over the same period for all banks and all large firms. |
| Keywords: | stock returns; realized volatility; density forecasts; optimal pools; Dodd-Frank; financial intermediation; financial conditions |
| JEL: | C22 G17 G18 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:850&r=knm |
| By: | Avner Offer |
| Abstract: | Social democracy and market liberalism offered different solutions to the same problem: how to provide for life-cycle dependency. Social democracy makes lateral transfers from producers to dependents by means of progressive taxation. Market liberalism uses financial markets to transfer financial entitlement over time. Social democracy came up against the limits of public expenditure in the 1970s. The ‘market turn’ from social democracy to market liberalism was enabled by easy credit in the 1980s. Much of this was absorbed into homeownership, which attracted majorities of households (and voters) in the developed world. Early movers did well, but easy credit eventually drove house prices beyond the reach of younger cohorts. Debt service diminished effective demand, which instigated financial instability. Both social democracy and market liberalism are in crisis. |
| Keywords: | Welfare state, housing, credit and debt |
| JEL: | H55 E51 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_149&r=knm |
| By: | Gianluca De Nard; Olivier Ledoit; Michael Wolf |
| Abstract: | This paper injects factor structure into the estimation of time-varying, large-dimensional covariance matrices of stock returns. Existing factor models struggle to model the covariance matrix of residuals in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity in large universes. Conversely, rotation-equivariant estimators of large-dimensional time-varying covariance matrices forsake directional information embedded in market-wide risk factors. We introduce a new covariance matrix estimator that blends factor structure with conditional heteroskedasticity of residuals in large dimensions up to 1000 stocks. It displays superior all-around performance on historical data against a variety of state-of-the-art competitors, including static factor models, exogenous factor models, sparsity-based models, and structure-free dynamic models. This new estimator can be used to deliver more efficient portfolio selection and detection of anomalies in the cross-section of stock returns. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic conditional correlations, factor models, multivariate GARCH, Markowitz portfolio selection, nonlinear shrinkage |
| JEL: | C13 C58 G11 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:290&r=knm |
| By: | Yen H. Lok |
| Abstract: | The contribution of this paper is two-fold. The first contribution is the development of a filter-combine scheme for trading strategies to diversify model risk. Multiple statistical machine learning models are used to predict the price direction of multiple assets. We demonstrate the effectiveness of model-averaging after under-performing models are removed via a filtering algorithm. The second contribution is the identification of appropriate measures of performance for selecting models. In the literature, different measures are usually designed for different applications and purposes, and it is not always clear as to whether certain measures are relevant to a particular trading strategy. By identifying relevant measures, one can identify the key drivers underlying well-performing models, and allocate more resources in optimising and improving the appropriate models. |
| JEL: | C51 C52 |
| Date: | 2018–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jmp:jm2018:plo493&r=knm |
| By: | Sheikh Rabiul Islam |
| Abstract: | The stock market is a nonlinear, nonstationary, dynamic, and complex system. There are several factors that affect the stock market conditions, such as news, social media, expert opinion, political transitions, and natural disasters. In addition, the market must also be able to handle the situation of illegal insider trading, which impacts the integrity and value of stocks. Illegal insider trading occurs when trading is performed based on non-public (private, leaked, tipped) information (e.g., new product launch, quarterly financial report, acquisition or merger plan) before the information is made public. Preventing illegal insider trading is a priority of the regulatory authorities (e.g., SEC) as it involves billions of dollars, and is very difficult to detect. In this work, we present different types of insider trading approaches, techniques and our proposed approach for detecting and predicting insider trader using a deep-learning based approach combined with discrete signal processing on time series data. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1807.00939&r=knm |
| By: | XingYu Fu; JinHong Du; YiFeng Guo; MingWen Liu; Tao Dong; XiuWen Duan |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates how to apply machine learning algorithms to distinguish good stocks from the bad stocks. To this end, we construct 244 technical and fundamental features to characterize each stock, and label stocks according to their ranking with respect to the return-to-volatility ratio. Algorithms ranging from traditional statistical learning methods to recently popular deep learning method, e.g. Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Deep Neural Network (DNN), and the Stacking, are trained to solve the classification task. Genetic Algorithm (GA) is also used to implement feature selection. The effectiveness of the stock selection strategy is validated in Chinese stock market in both statistical and practical aspects, showing that: 1) Stacking outperforms other models reaching an AUC score of 0.972; 2) Genetic Algorithm picks a subset of 114 features and the prediction performances of all models remain almost unchanged after the selection procedure, which suggests some features are indeed redundant; 3) LR and DNN are radical models; RF is risk-neutral model; Stacking is somewhere between DNN and RF. 4) The portfolios constructed by our models outperform market average in back tests. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01743&r=knm |
| By: | P. Beneito; J. E. Boscá; J. Ferri; M. García |
| Abstract: | The relative scarcity of female students enrolling in economics has become entrenched over the last decade. We provide evidence of gender differences in performance and in preferences across subfields of the discipline and explore students’ beliefs about the profession and their opinions on different subjects. The areas where women stand out relative to men are those that seem to be least well known to our students. We work on three fronts. First, using web scraping and machine learning techniques, we document the relative presence of women across subfields in recent AEA annual meetings. Macroeconomics and finance register the greatest scarcity of women. Second, using administrative records for economics students in a large public university in Spain from 2010 to 2014, we find that women outperform men in microeconomics, while men outperform women in macroeconomics, more evidently in the upper tail of the grades distribution. Finally, data gathered through a self-statement survey given to economics majors reveal that (i) they hold a macroeconomics-biased view of the economics profession; (ii) they exhibit gender differences in their perceptions of the interest and difficulty inherent in different subfields (macro vs. microeconomics); and (iii) their interests and performance are influenced differently by their male and female peers in macro and microeconomics subjects. Taken together, these three pieces of evidence provide a plausible explanation as to why women are relatively less attracted than men to economics, and suggest lines of action to redress the imbalance |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2018-06&r=knm |
| By: | Italo López García (RAND Corporation); Andrés Otero (Chilean Pension Regulator) |
| Abstract: | Chile initiated in 1981 a privately managed, individual-account pension system that inspired similar reforms in many Latin American countries, and that has been considered as a possible model for Social Security in the United States. After 30 years in place, the Chilean pension system has been criticized for replicating existing inequalities in labor markets and increasing the risk of old-age poverty; for achieving lower levels of coverage; and for providing low pension benefits. Aiming at guaranteeing a minimum level of consumption upon retirement and increasing the incentives to contribute, in 2008 Chile reformed the Pension System, widening the welfare tier and improving the contributory tier through a means-testing scheme. This paper examines the impact of the 2008 Chilean pension on labor supply and well-being, using a version of the difference-in-difference estimator that assesses the effects of the reform through exogenous changes in pension wealth. Using longitudinal data from 2006 through 2012, and a sample of individuals that were not retired by the time of the implementation of the reforms, our preliminary estimates suggest that the pension reforms induced an increase in the probability of working formally, but at least among females, they reduced labor market participation. However, we find limited impacts of the reform on nonlabor outcomes. Besides some improvements in aggregate household expenditures and in measures of subjective well-being measures among males, we do not detect robust changes in health and well-being among individuals near retirement. |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp358&r=knm |
| By: | Firmin Doko Tchatoka (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Virginie Masson (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Sean Parry (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the debate on the relationship between oil price shocks and stock market returns by replicating the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression model for the US stock market in Sim and Zhou (2015, Journal of Banking and Finance), and extending it to 15 countries. The classification of these countries as oil importers or oil exporters depends on their net position in crude oil trade. Our results indicate that the finding by Sim and Zhou (2015) that large negative oil price shocks can bolster stock returns when markets are performing well is only partially supported by the three largest oil importers in our sample-China, Japan and India-during the period 1988:1-2007:12. However, when extending the study to more recent data (period 1988:1-2016:12), we find that China and India experience higher returns when markets perform well and there is a large positive oil price shock. Also, large positive oil price shocks often lead to higher stock market returns when markets perform well for both oil exporting countries-Canada, Russia, Norway-and moderately oil dependent countries-such as Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. These findings highlight that the relationship between the distributions of oil price shocks and stock market returns is not stable over time in most countries studied. Furthermore, the asymmetric effect of oil price shocks observed in the US market by Sim and Zhou (2015) is less evident in most countries for both the baseline and extended periods. |
| Keywords: | Oil prices; stock returns; Quantile regression |
| JEL: | C01 C14 C31 G15 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2018-01&r=knm |
| By: | Ye Jin Heo (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically studies through which channel - between short expected remaining life and withdrawal from the labor market - population aging affects real house price more and how the effect can vary if old-age population is defined alternatively in a way to reflect different aspects of aging, using a panel data of OECD countries. It finds that the main driver of a negative relationship between aging and real house price comes from the later stage of life and not immediately after the age of 65 or retirement. It also shows that the effective retirement age matters more in explaining the relationship between aging and real house price than the age 65, since the share of retired population has a nonlinear effect on real house price, while the standard old-age population aged over 65 does not. When I project future real house price, the standard old-age population only predicts a further decrease in real house price as aging continues, whereas the retired population captures a positive marginal effect and leaves room for policy intervention. |
| Keywords: | J11, G12, R21 |
| JEL: | J11 G12 R21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:288&r=knm |
| By: | Sylvia Dixon (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides information on the extent of student mobility between schools in New Zealand, measuring mobility rates at both the student and school level. It explores the characteristics of mobile students, the extent to which they become disengaged from school, and their NCEA level 1 achievement rates. It also compares the student turnover rates of different types of schools. We find that mobile students make up a sizeable sub-group within the set of students who do not achieve NCEA level 1. Analysing data for the 1998 birth cohort, we find that mobile students (defined as those attending five or more schools while aged 8-14 years) represented 9% of all students, but 26% of those who did not achieve NCEA level 1. The association of mobility with poorer attainment means that strategies to raise student achievement must work well for children who change schools frequently, as well as for children with more stable schooling patterns. At the school level, we find large variations between schools in student turnover rates and in the proportion of students who are frequent movers. Because high student turnover increases a school’s workload and costs and the complexity of teaching, it could have implications for the schooling system in areas such as resourcing, learning support and information exchange. |
| Keywords: | Transience; mobility; achievement; schools |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztwps:18/01&r=knm |
| By: | Arina Sapova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Aleksey Porshakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Andreev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Evgenia Shatilo (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Keywords: | consumer price index, inflation, seasonality, seasonal adjustment, aggregate index, consumer price dynamics . |
| JEL: | C18 C43 E31 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps33&r=knm |
| By: | Daniele Pacifico (OECD); James Browne (OECD); Rodrigo Fernandez (OECD); Herwig Immervoll (OECD); Dirk Neumann (OECD); Céline Thévenot (OECD) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis, large shares of working-age individuals in Italy either did not work or only to a limited extent. As the employment rate bottomed out in 2013, 32% were without employment during the entire year, and a further 7% had weak labour-market attachment, working only a fraction of the year, or on restricted working hours. This paper applies a novel method for measuring and visualising employment barriers of individuals with no or weak labour-market attachment, using household micro-data. It first develops indicators to quantify employment obstacles under three broad headings: (i) work-related capabilities, (ii) incentives, and (iii) employment opportunities. It then uses these indicators in conjunction with a statistical clustering approach to identify unobserved (“latent”) groups of individuals facing similar combinations of barriers. The resulting typology of labour-market difficulties provides insights on the most pressing policy priorities in supporting different groups into employment. A detailed policy discussion illustrates the use of these empirical results to inform people-centred assessments of existing labour-market integration measures and of key challenges across different policy areas and institutions. The most common employment obstacles in Italy were limited work experience, low education and skill levels, and scarce job opportunities. Although financial disincentives, health limitations and care responsibilities were less widespread overall, they remained important barriers for some groups. A striking finding is that more than half of jobless or low-intensity workers face three or more simultaneous barriers, highlighting the limits of narrow policy approaches that focus on subsets of these employment obstacles in isolation. |
| JEL: | C38 H31 J2 J6 J8 |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:208-en&r=knm |
| By: | Waeyenberge, Elisa Van.; Bargawi, Hannah. |
| Abstract: | This paper, authored by Elisa Van Waeyenberge and Hannah Bargawi, examines the main trends in growth, employment, poverty and inequality in Uganda over the last decade, pointing to, inter alia, a lack of absorption of workers into high productivity sectors, with resulting implications for conditions of employment, poverty and inequality. The authors argue that the limited structural transformation is a result insufficient expansion in productive capacities by the private sector, against the backdrop of a historically weak public investment programme and a persistently lop-sided integration in international trade circuits. The authors also argue that the macroeconomic policy agenda has restricted the scope for a fundamental transformation of the Ugandan economy necessary to support much-needed job creation and increases in the standard of living. The authors point to a need for a proemployment macroeconomic framework in Uganda, including appropriate sectoral policies, accelerating public spending complemented by efforts to mobilise domestic revenues and a rethink of monetary policy beyond inflation-targeting. |
| Keywords: | economic development, labour policy, Uganda |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987693202676&r=knm |
| By: | Qazi Haque (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Nicolas Groshenny (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Mark Weder (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine whether or not monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation. We focus on a number of attributes that we see relevant for any analysis of the 1970s: cost-push or oil price shocks, positive trend inflation as well as real wage rigidity. We turn our artificial sticky-price economy into a Bayesian model and find that the U.S. economy during the 1970s is best characterized by a high degree of real wage rigidity. Oil price shocks thus created a trade-off between inflation and output-gap stabilization. Faced with this dilemma, the Federal Reserve reacted aggressively to inflation but hardly at all to the output gap, thereby inducing stability, i.e. determinacy. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Great Inflation; Cost-push shocks; Trend inflation; Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2018-03&r=knm |
| By: | Monique De Haan (University of Oslo); Ragnhild C. Schreiner (Department of Economics, University College London, CReAM and the Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | There is a strong intergenerational correlation in welfare participation, but this does not imply that parental welfare receipt induces child receipt. While there are a few quasi-experimental studies that provide estimates of the causal effect of parental welfare participation for children from marginal welfare participants, we know very little about intergenerational spillovers of welfare participation onto the children of average welfare participants. By combining rich administrative data from Norway with weak mean-monotonicity assumptions, we estimate nonparametric bounds around the average causal effect of parental welfare participation on children’s welfare participation in the general population, as well as the average causal effect for children growing up in welfare-dependent families. We find that these average causal effects are considerably lower than the intergenerational correlation in welfare participation, and substantially below available local average treatment effect estimates in the literatu . We further find important differences between intergenerational spillovers of disability insurance and intergenerational spillovers of financial assistance, a traditional means-tested welfare program. |
| Keywords: | Welfare dependency, intergenerational spillovers, disability insurance, financial assistance,partial identification |
| JEL: | H55 I38 J62 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1810&r=knm |
| By: | Alessia Matano (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona,); Moisés Obaco (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona,); Vicente Royuela (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona,) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the incidence of agglomeration externalities in a typical developing country, Ecuador. In particular, we analyze the role of the informal sector within these relations, since informal employment accounts for a significant part of total employment in the developing countries. Using individual level data and instrumental variable techniques, we investigate the impact of spatial externalities, in terms of population size and local specialization, on the wages of workers in Ecuadorian cities. The results show that spatial externalities matter also for a typical developing country, especially as far as urbanization externalities are concerned. Moreover, analysis of the interaction between spatial externalities and the informal economy shows a general penalization for informal workers in terms of benefits arising from agglomeration externalities. Finally, by investigating the possible channels behind the heterogeneity found in spatial agglomeration gains between formal and informal workers, we show that the advantages from agglomeration for formal workers may well be accounted for by positive sorting and better gains from job changes, while for informal workers they arise from positive learning externalities. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration Externalities; Developing Economies; Informal Employment; Workers’ Wages; FUAs; Ecuador. JEL classification: J31, J46, R23, R12 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201806&r=knm |
| By: | Markus Leibrecht (WIFO); Hans Pitlik (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | While trust in the business sector is crucial for well-functioning markets, there is surprisingly little empirical work on its sources. Available research recognises social trust as a major force explaining confidence in political institutions. Regulation is frequently advocated to foster trust in companies as it is supposed to reduce scope for opportunistic behaviour. Based on individual level data from World Values Survey, European Values Studies and economic regulation data from the Economic Freedom of the World project the paper empirically investigates joint effects of social trust, intensity and quality of regulation on public trust in major companies. Our findings suggest that it is not the intensity of economic regulation per se which matters for trust in companies but that the impartiality with which rules are enforced is decisive, even when we control for social trust. Trust in business can be facilitated by an implicit guarantee of governments to fair and impartial treatment. |
| Keywords: | Social Trust, Trust in Companies, Economic Regulation, World Values Survey |
| Date: | 2018–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2018:i:564&r=knm |
| By: | Javed, Rashid; Mughal, Mazhar |
| Abstract: | Son preference is common in many Asian countries. Though a growing body of literature examines the drivers and socioeconomic impacts of phenomenon in case of China and India, work on other Asian countries is scarce. This study uses nationally representative survey of over 13 thousand households from Pakistan (PDHS 2012-13) to analyze the effects of observed preference for sons on women’s participation in intra-household decision-making. Four key intra-household decisions are considered: decisions regarding healthcare, family visits, large household purchases and spending husband's income. These correspond to four categories of household decisions, namely healthcare, social, consumption and financial. Probit and Ordered Probit are employed as the main estimation techniques and other determinants of household decision-making are controlled for. Besides, a number of matching routines are employed to account for the possibility of potential selection bias. We find that women with at least one son have more say in household decisions. Bearing at least one son is associated with 5%, 7% and 5% higher say in decisions involving healthcare, social and consumption matters respectively. Women's role in financial affairs, however, does not differ significantly from women with no sons. Female participation in decision-making grows significantly with the number of sons but only up to the third parity. These results are particularly visible among younger, wealthier and educated women, and those who got married earlier. The findings suggest a limited improvement in women's bargaining power at home resulting from the birth of one or more sons. This in part explains higher desire for sons expressed by women compared to men in household surveys. |
| Keywords: | Son preference,Gender bias,Sex selection,Female decision-making,intrahousehold bargaining,Pakistan |
| JEL: | D13 J13 C13 C70 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:179520&r=knm |
| By: | Kaetlynd McRae; Danny Auger |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses how the bankers’ acceptance (BA) market in Canada is organized and its essential link to the Canadian Dollar Offered Rate (CDOR). Globally, BAs are a niche product used only in a limited number of jurisdictions. In Canada, BAs provide a key source of funding for small and medium-sized corporate borrowers that may not otherwise have direct access to the primary funding market because of their size and credit ratings. More recently, BAs have also become an increasingly important funding source for large corporate borrowers because of credit-rating downgrades in certain sectors and industry consolidation. With the market’s continued growth, BAs account for the greatest portion of money market instruments issued by non-government entities and are the second-largest money market instrument overall in Canada, averaging just over 25 per cent of the total domestic money market in 2017. For the investment community in Canada, BAs provide a source of short-term income and liquidity because of their relatively attractive yield, liquidity and credit ratings. The BA market is intrinsically linked to CDOR, which was originally developed to establish a daily benchmark reference rate for BA borrowings. This rate is quite nuanced compared with rates in other jurisdictions in that it is not directly a bank borrowing rate. Instead, it is a committed lending rate at which banks are contractually willing to lend cash to corporate borrowers with existing BA facilities. CDOR is also used as the main interest rate benchmark for calculating the floating-rate component of both over-the-counter and exchange-traded Canadian-dollar derivative products. Another use of CDOR is to determine interest payments on floating-rate notes. |
| Keywords: | Financial Institutions; Financial markets; Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing |
| JEL: | G G1 G18 G2 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:18-6&r=knm |
| By: | Amador, Manuel (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Phelan, Christopher (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a continuous-time model of sovereign debt. In it, a relatively impatient sovereign government’s hidden type switches back and forth between a commitment type, which cannot default, and an optimizing type, which can default on the country’s debt at any time, and assume outside lenders have particular beliefs regarding how a commitment type should borrow for any given level of debt and bond price. We show that if these beliefs satisfy reasonable assumptions, in any Markov equilibrium, the optimizing type mimics the commitment type when borrowing, revealing its type only by defaulting on its debt at random times. Further, in such Markov equilibria (the solution to a simple pair of ordinary differential equations), there are positive gross issuances at all dates, constant net imports as long as there is a positive equilibrium probability that the government is the optimizing type, and net debt repayment only by the commitment type. For countries that have recently defaulted, the interest rate the country pays on its debt is a decreasing function of the amount of time since its last default, and its total debt is an increasing function of the amount of time since its last default. For countries that have not recently defaulted, interest rates are constant. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt; Sovereign default; Reputation; Learning; Debt intolerance; Serial defaulters |
| JEL: | F34 |
| Date: | 2018–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:564&r=knm |
| By: | Tilman Brück; O.M. Dias Botia; N. T. N. Ferguson; J. Ouédraogo; Z. Ziegelhoefer; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | A recent strand of aid programming aims to develop household assets by removing the stresses associated with meeting basic nutritional needs. In this paper, we posit that such programmes can also boost nutrition in recipient households by encouraging further investment in diet. To test this hypothesis, we study the World Food Programme’s “Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO)” in Niger, a conflict-affected, low income country with a high share of malnourishment. Under PRRO, a household could be in one of three groups at endline: receiving food aid to prevent malnutrition, receiving both preventive food aid and food for assets assistance, or receiving no assistance (the control group). When provided only by itself, the food aid has no nutritional impact, relative to receiving no assistance. However, we observe pronounced positive effects when preventive food aid is paired with assets-based programming, over and above what stems from greater household assets. We conclude, first, that certain forms of food aid function well in complex, insecure environments; second, that assets-based programmes deliver positive nutritional spillovers; and, third, that there are theoretical grounds to believe that asset-based programmes interact positively with more nutrition-focussed programming. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa957&r=knm |
| By: | Daniele Pacifico (OECD); Herwig Immervoll (OECD); James Browne (OECD); Rodrigo Fernandez (OECD); Dirk Neumann (OECD); Céline Thévenot (OECD) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis, large shares of working-age individuals in Lithuania either do not work or only to a limited extent. By 2013, several years after the start of the labour-market recovery, 21% were still without employment during the entire year, and a further 11% had weak labour-market attachment, working only a fraction of the year, or on restricted working hours. This paper applies a novel method for measuring and visualising employment barriers of individuals with no or weak labour-market attachment, using household micro-data. It first develops indicators to quantify employment obstacles under three broad headings: (i) work-related capabilities, (ii) incentives, and (iii) employment opportunities. It then uses these indicators in conjunction with a statistical clustering approach to identify unobserved (“latent”) groups of individuals facing similar combinations of barriers. The resulting typology of labour-market difficulties provides insights on the most pressing policy priorities in supporting different groups into employment. A detailed policy discussion illustrates how these empirical results can inform people-centred assessments of existing labour-market integration measures and of key challenges across different policy areas and institutions. The most common employment obstacles in Lithuania were health limitations, limited work experience, and scarce job opportunities. Although financial disincentives and care responsibilities were less widespread overall, they remained important barriers for some groups. A notable finding is that just over one third of jobless or low-intensity workers face three or more simultaneous barriers, highlighting the limits of narrow policy approaches that focus on subsets of these employment obstacles in isolation. |
| JEL: | C38 H31 J2 J6 J8 |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:205-en&r=knm |
| By: | Bogetoft Pedersen, Peter; Diakantoni, Antonia; Pérez del Castillo, Carlos; Mkhitarian, Amaliia |
| Abstract: | A decade has passed since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. Less than a month after the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, an internal Secretariat Task Force was established by the WTO Director-General to monitor the trade related developments associated with the global financial crisis. When G20 Leaders met in London in early 2009 they mandated the WTO, together with other international bodies, to monitor and report publicly on the G20 adherence to resisting protectionism and promoting global trade and investment. Ten years of trade monitoring later, and notwithstanding widespread anti-trade rhetoric, a protectionist backlash has not materialized. Although there have been worrying increases in the application of certain trade restrictive policy measures, the overall reality has been less alarmist. The paper will provide an introduction to the WTO trade monitoring exercise. It will show how the idea and the principles behind the current trade monitoring effort have origins that go back considerably further than the financial crisis. The paper will also provide an overview of selected trends and developments identified by the monitoring exercise since 2009. Finally, the paper will address some of the challenges facing the WTO monitoring exercise as it enters its tenth year. |
| Keywords: | trade monitoring,protectionism,trade restrictions,trade facilitation |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201807&r=knm |
| By: | Andreas Steinhauer (University of Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | In this paper I provide empirical evidence that the strength of beliefs regarding the harm children suffer when their mothers work plays an important role in explaining gender gaps in labor market outcomes and fertility trends. I exploit a unique setting in Switzerland and compare outcomes of one cohort of Swiss women born in the 1950s either into the French or German ethno-linguistic group. This allows me to compare outcomes of women exposed to different norms regarding working mothers while holding constant typical confounding factors such as composition, labor market opportunities, and work-family policies. Consistent with the strong belief that children suffer with working mothers in the German region, I find that German-born women are 15-25% less likely to work as mothers and 20-20% more likely to remain childless compared to their French-born peers. Only the extensive margins show marked differences and especially among the highly educated. I argue that an identity framework along the lines of Akerlof and Kranton (2000) can rationalize these patterns in a tractable way. |
| Keywords: | famale employment; childlessness; famale identity |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1a68qg411o9bg9jp7fhgh60n5p&r=knm |
| By: | Benjamin Schwab; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | The productive impacts of transfer programmes have received increased attention. However, little is known about such effects in emergency and crisis settings. Even less is known about whether transfer type – a food basket or a cash grant – influences the productive potential of such transfers. Theory suggests that, while cash transfers can relieve liquidity constraints associated with investments, subsidized food provision, by acting as a form of insurance, may prevent households from retreating to conservative income-generating strategies during volatile periods. Using a randomized field experiment in Yemen, we contrast the effects of transfer modality. The results demonstrate a modest productive impact of both modalities and suggest a role for both liquidity and price risk channels. Cash transfer recipients invested relatively more in activities with higher liquidity requirements (livestock), while food recipients incorporated higher-return crops into their agricultural portfolios. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa965&r=knm |
| By: | Alekhina, Victoriia (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the interrelationship between the main macroeconomic indicators of an oil exporting country and world oil prices using a vector autoregressive approach. We focus on an oil exporter that is not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its oil revenues, which account for a significant proportion of the country’s total export and budget revenues. We explain the oil price transition mechanisms to this economy from the export side and through the fiscal channel, taking into account the monetary policy factor. The results suggest that oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on the oil exporting country’s real gross domestic product, consumer price index inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate. Moreover, to estimate monetary policy rule for this energy exporter, we test the Taylor equation and associated Taylor rule, including the oil prices gap, since the latter may have a significant impact on the key policy rate. The evidence suggests that the Taylor rule describes the post-financial crisis monetary policy of this economy relatively well. Finally, we discuss future research and lessons from this economy for monetary policy makers. |
| Keywords: | oil prices; energy exporters; macro-economy; VAR model |
| JEL: | Q41 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2018–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0828&r=knm |
| By: | Fackler, Daniel; Fuchs, Michaela (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Hölscher, Lisa; Schnabel, Claus |
| Abstract: | "This paper analyzes whether startups offer job opportunities to workers potentially facing labor market problems. It compares the hiring patterns of startups and incumbents in the period 2003 to 2014 using administrative linked employer-employee data for Germany that allow to take the complete employment biographies of newly hired workers into account. The results indicate that young plants are more likely than incumbents to hire older and foreign applicants as well as workers who have instable employment biographies, come from unemployment or outside the labor force, or were affected by a plant closure. However, an analysis of entry wages reveals that disadvantageous worker characteristics come along with higher wage penalties in startups than in incumbents. Therefore, even if startups provide employment opportunities for certain groups of disadvantaged workers, the quality of these jobs in terms of initial remuneration seems to be low." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | J31 J63 L26 M51 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201817&r=knm |
| By: | David Rodgers (UNSW Sydney); Jonathan Hambur (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | The Australian Government established a temporary tax break for investment as part of its stimulus response to the global financial crisis. The policy gave all businesses undertaking equipment investment extra tax deductions and gave larger deductions to small businesses. We exploit this differential treatment to identify the effect of the tax credit using business-level datasets from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The key conclusions that emerge are: 1. The tax break had a strong effect on business-level investment. We find this result using both difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity methods. 2. The tax break increased the investment of companies , despite Australia's imputation system for corporate dividends implying that their costs of capital were unaffected. This suggests that a non-standard mechanism, such as a relaxation in financial constraints, underlies part of the response to tax incentives. To the extent that this is the case, it may suggest that such policies are more effective during downturns, when financial constraints are more binding. Relatedly, there is no evidence that businesses responded by bringing forward investment from future years (i.e. intertemporal substitution). 3. The tax break was important on a macroeconomic level. General equilibrium estimates suggest that both GDP growth and the cash rate would have been significantly lower in 2009 without the tax break. While our work suggests that tax rates and breaks can affect real decisions for Australian corporates, despite the existence of the dividend imputation system, it provides only limited guidance on the potential effects of policies other than the one we study. Other policies will differ in terms of their timing, permanence and targeting, all of which could influence their effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | investment; financial constraints; investment tax breaks |
| JEL: | D21 D22 D92 G31 H25 H32 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2018-07&r=knm |
| By: | Balliester, Thereza.; Elsheikhi, Adam. |
| Abstract: | An enormous amount of literature has emerged over the last few years in the context of the “Future of Work”. Academics, think tanks and policy makers have fuelled rich discussions about how the future of work might look like and how we can shape it. Indeed, labour markets in developing and developed countries are likely to undergo major transformations in the next years and decades. However, despite a growing body of research in this area, there exists no universally accepted definition of what exactly the “Future of Work” encompasses and what the most relevant drivers are. Accordingly, there is a vast variety of themes and methods covered by the literature on the Future of Work. Few papers cut across a multidimensional analysis of the different potential drivers of change. This literature review provides the first systematic and synoptic overview of topics discussed under the umbrella of the “Future of Work”. It not only highlights the trends of the most important drivers as discussed in existing studies,it also defines what the expected outcomes of the future of work might be. The review first devises a structure based on key labour market dimensions and then categorises findings from the literature conditioned on such dimensions. It also contains an assessment on the coverage of the studies on the future of work and perceived limitations and thematic gaps. |
| Keywords: | future of work, work organization |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987493402676&r=knm |
| By: | Patrick Kline; Raffaele Saggio; Mikkel S{\o}lvsten |
| Abstract: | We propose a framework for unbiased estimation of quadratic forms in the parameters of linear models with many regressors and unrestricted heteroscedasticity. Applications include variance component estimation and tests of linear restrictions in hierarchical and panel models. We study the large sample properties of our estimator allowing the number of regressors to grow in proportion to the number of observations. Consistency is established in a variety of settings where jackknife bias corrections exhibit first-order biases. The estimator's limiting distribution can be represented by a linear combination of normal and non-central $\chi^2$ random variables. Consistent variance estimators are proposed along with a procedure for constructing uniformly valid confidence intervals. Applying a two-way fixed effects model of wage determination to Italian social security records, we find that ignoring heteroscedasticity substantially biases conclusions regarding the relative contribution of workers, firms, and worker-firm sorting to wage inequality. Monte Carlo exercises corroborate the accuracy of our asymptotic approximations, with clear evidence of non-normality emerging when worker mobility between groups of firms is limited. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.01494&r=knm |
| By: | Stavros Degiannakis (Department of Economics and Regional Development, Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences and Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University); George Filis (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University); Vipin Arora (U.S. Energy Information Administration) |
| Abstract: | Do oil prices and stock markets move in tandem or in opposite directions? The complex and time varying relationship between oil prices and stock markets has caught the attention of the financial press, investors, policymakers, researchers, and the general public in recent years. In light of such attention, this paper reviews research on the oil price and stock market relationship. The majority of papers we survey study the impacts of oil markets on stock markets, whereas, little research in the reverse direction exists. Our review finds that the causal effects between oil and stock markets depend heavily on whether research is performed using aggregate stock market indices, sectoral indices, or firm-level data and whether stock markets operate in net oil-importing or net oil-exporting countries. Additionally, conclusions vary depending on whether studies use symmetric or asymmetric changes in the price of oil, or whether they focus on unexpected changes in oil prices. Finally, we find that most studies show oil price volatility transmits to stock market volatility, and that including measures of stock market performance improves forecasts of oil prices and oil price volatility. Several important avenues for further research are identified. |
| Keywords: | Oil prices; stock markets; interconnectedness; forecasting; oil-importers; oil-exporters |
| JEL: | G15 Q40 Q47 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bam:wpaper:bafes22&r=knm |
| By: | Michael Hoy; Afrasiab Mirza; Asha Sadanand |
| Abstract: | Guaranteed renewability is a prominent feature in many health and life insurance markets. It is well established in the literature that, when there is (only) risk type uncertainty, the optimal GR contract with renewal price set at the actuarially fair price for low risk types provides full insurance against reclassification risk. We develop a model that includes unpredictable (and unobservable) fluctuations in demand for life insurance as well as changes in risk type (observable) over individuals' lifetimes. The presence of demand type heterogeneity leads to the possibility that optimal GR contracts may have a renewal price that is either above or below the actuarially fair price of the lowest risk type in the population. Individuals whose type turns out to be high risk but low demand renew more of their GR insurance than is efficient due to the attractive renewal price. This results in incomplete insurance against re-classification risk. Although a first best efficient contract is not possible in the presence of demand type heterogeneity, the presence of GR contracts nonetheless improves welfare relative to an environment with only spot markets. Our results also apply to a comparison of environments with short versus long term (front loaded) insurance contracts. |
| Keywords: | insurance, guaranteed renewability, re-classification risk, demand uncertainty |
| JEL: | D80 D86 G22 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7103&r=knm |
| By: | Masuch, Klaus; Anderton, Robert; Setzer, Ralph; Benalal, Nicholai |
| Abstract: | Structural policies in the euro area are of great interest for the Eurosystem, particularly as they can support the smooth functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper adopts a broad definition of structural policies, analysing not only the benefits of efficient labour, product and financial market regulations, but also emphasising the importance of good governance and efficient institutions that ensure high quality and impartial public services, the rule of law and the control of rent-seeking. The paper concludes that there are many opportunities for enhanced structural policies in EU and euro area countries which can yield substantial gains by boosting long-term income and employment growth and supporting social fairness, also via better and more equal opportunities. It provides empirical and model-based analyses on the impacts and the interactions of structural policies, highlighting synergies between growth and inclusiveness, while acknowledging that structural policy changes need to be country-specific to reflect national conditions and social preferences. Welldesigned structural policies would also strengthen economic resilience and convergence of Member States, bringing the euro area closer to the requirements of an optimal currency area and improving the transmission of monetary policy. The paper also discusses the political economy causes of the sluggish implementation of socially beneficial structural policies and assesses ways to deal with possible shortterm costs of reforms. JEL Classification: D60, E24, G28, H11, J08, O47, O43 |
| Keywords: | economic resilience, euro area, governance, inclusive growth, institutional quality, political economy, structural reforms |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2018210&r=knm |
| By: | Pham, Tuan; Tran, Thi Ha |
| Abstract: | Using both aggregate and disaggregate data, the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of VND/CNY exchange rate (including exchange rate level and volatility) on trade flows between Vietnam and China. For this analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied. In the disaggregate models, long-run results indicate that 9 import commodities (approximately 28.67% of total import value) are sensitive to real exchange rate level, and 9 export commodities (approximately 39,146% of total export value) also respond to changes in exchange rate level. Most of unaffected commodities are raw, intermediate, and simply processed products (the biggest component in total import volume). In addition, the study found that export commodities are more sensitive to exchange rate volatility than import commodities. Notably, the results of aggregate model indicate that there is no statistical evidence of any linkage between exchange rate and trade (export and import). In other words, exchange rate is likely to be ineffective to improve trade balance between Vietnam and China. This is noticeable signal in term of effective coordination between the monetary and trade policy of Vietnam |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, China, Exchange Rate, Import, Export, ARDL |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 E6 F1 F4 |
| Date: | 2018–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87457&r=knm |
| By: | Gregori Galofré-VilÃ; Andrew Hinde; Aravinda Guntupalli |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper uses a dataset of heights calculated from the femurs of skeletal remains to explore the development of stature in England across the last two millennia. We find that heights increased during the Roman period and then steadily fell during the ‘Dark Ages’ in the early medieval period. At the turn of the first millennium heights grew rapidly, but after 1200 they started to decline coinciding with the agricultural depression, the Great Famine and the Black Death. Then they recovered to reach a plateau which they maintained for almost 300 years, before falling on the eve of industrialisation. The data show that average heights in England in the early nineteenth century were shorter than those in Roman times, and that average heights reported between 1400 and 1700 were similar to those of the twentieth century. The paper also discusses the ssociation of heights across time with some potential determinants and correlates (real wages, inequality, food supply, climate change and expectation of life), showing that in the long run heights change with these variables, and that in certain periods, notably the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, the associations are observable over the shorter run as well. We also examine potential biases surrounding the use of skeletal remains. |
| Keywords: | Health, Height, England, Skeletal remains |
| Date: | 2017–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_151&r=knm |
| By: | Gupta, Prachi (Asian Development Bank Institute); Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the Asian financial crises, the Indonesian government launched a subsidized rice program called RASKIN in 1998 to moderate the shocks of food price inflation and reduced employment to poor households. The program has been continued since then with an objective to provide food security to poor families and is currently the largest in-kind transfer in Indonesia. Using data from five rounds of the Indonesian Family Life Survey covering the period of 1993–2014, we examine the impact of RASKIN on children’s health status. Using the difference-in-difference estimator, we find that children from the households that are beneficiaries of the RASKIN program show improved health status as measured by various anthropometric measures. We further investigate the long-run gains from RASKIN by tracing the health status of children aged between 0 and 5 years old in 1993 and 1997, respectively, until their adolescence/adulthood. We find evidence of improved anthropometric health outcomes for these children in later years. The gains are found to be higher for children who started receiving the subsidized rice in the early years of childhood. |
| Keywords: | in-kind transfers; food consumption; child development; health; long-run impact |
| JEL: | H50 I12 I38 O15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2018–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0826&r=knm |
| By: | Danny Mackinnon; Stuart Dawley; Andy Pike; Andrew Cumbers |
| Abstract: | A burgeoning strand of Evolutionary Economic Geography (EEG) research is addressing questions of regional path creation, based upon the idea that place-specific legacies and conditions play a critical role in supporting the emergence of new economic activities. Yet there has been little effort thus far to take stock of this emerging body of research. In response, the aims of this paper are to offer a fresh synthesis of recent work and to develop a broader theoretical framework to inform future research. First, it presents a critical appraisal of the state of the art in path creation research. In an effort to address identified gaps in EEG research, this incorporates insights from sociological perspectives, the global production networks (GPN) approach and transition studies. Second, the paper?s development of a systematic theoretical framework is based upon the identification of key dimensions of path creation and their constitutive inter-relations. This contribution is underpinned by a geographical political economy (GPE) approach which provides the ontological basis for the integration of the five key dimensions of path creation within an overarching framework and the positioning of regional processes in relation to the broader dynamics of uneven development. Informed by GPE, the argument is that knowledgeable actors, operating within multi-scalar institutional environments, create paths through the strategic coupling of regional and extra-regional assets to mechanisms of path creation and associated markets. To inform further research, the paper outlines four concrete propositions regarding the operation of path creation processes in different types of regions and explores these through case studies of Berlin and Pittsburgh. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Path creation, evolutionary economic geography, geographical political economy, agency, strategic coupling |
| JEL: | R11 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1825&r=knm |
| By: | Jacobus De Hoop; Mitchell Morey; David Seidenfeld; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the impact of a cash transfer programme – an initiative of the Government of Lebanon, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Food Programme (WFP), widely known as the No Lost Generation Programme (NLG) and, locally, as Min Ila (‘from to’) – on the school participation of displaced Syrian children in Lebanon. The programme provides cash to children who are enrolled in the afternoon shift of a public primary school. It was designed to cover the cost of commuting to school and to compensate households for income forgone if children attend school instead of working, two critical barriers to child school participation. We rely on a geographical regression discontinuity design comparing children living in two pilot governorates with children in two neighbouring governorates to identify the impact of the programme halfway in the first year of operation (the 2016/17 school year). We find limited programme effects on school enrolment, but substantive impacts on school attendance among enrolled children, which increased by 0.5 days to 0.7 days per week, an improvement of about 20 per cent over the control group. School enrolment among Syrian children rose rapidly across all of Lebanon’s governorates during the period of the evaluation, resulting in supply side capacity constraints that appear to have dampened positive impacts on enrolment. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa955&r=knm |
| By: | Hernández-Ramos, Lesdy Natalie; Venegas-Martínez, Francisco |
| Abstract: | This paper is aimed at developing a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small and open economy to examine how the volatility generated by risk factors affects the performance of fiscal and monetary policies. The relevant economic and financial variables are modeled with geometric Brownian motions combined with Poisson jumps. The decision-making problems of all agents participating in the economy are solved and the general equilibrium is characterized. Finally, several econometric specifications derived from the theoretical results of the proposed model are used to assess the performance of fiscal and monetary policies in Mexico, in 1990-2015, in an environment of risk and uncertainty. La presente investigación desarrolla un modelo estocástico de equilibrio general de una economía pequeña y abierta útil para examinar cómo la volatilidad generada por diversos factores de riesgo afecta el desempeño de las políticas fiscal y monetaria. Las variables económicas y financieras relevantes son modeladas con movimientos geométricos brownianos combinadas con saltos de Poisson. Los problemas de toma de decisiones de todos los agentes participantes en la economía son resueltos y el equilibro general es caracterizado. Por último, diversas especificaciones econométricas provenientes de los resultados teóricos del modelo propuesto son utilizadas para evaluar el desempeño de las políticas fiscal y monetaria en México, en 1990-2015, en un entorno de riesgo e incertidumbre. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: General equilibrium, decision making under risk and uncertainty, fiscal and monetary policy. Palabras clave: Equilibrio general, toma de decisiones bajo riesgo e incertidumbre, política fiscal y monetaria. |
| JEL: | E62 |
| Date: | 2018–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87666&r=knm |
| By: | Philippe Henry (Scènes et savoirs - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis) |
| Abstract: | This report deals with an exploratory research carried out between October 2016 and June 2017 on three cases of cooperative arrangement, mainly involving cultural micro-enterprises with other than profit-making goals, that’s to say : Artenréel, a “Coopérative d’activités et d’emploi” in Strasbourg ; AGEC, a “Groupe d’employeurs” in Bordeaux ; La Coursive Boutaric, a “Pôle territorial de coopération économique” in Dijon. The analysis stresses the central importance that is to be given to the socioeconomic specificities of the cultural field if we want to better understand what is at stake in the cooperative arrangements which are nowadays currently developing between micro-enterprises. The project logic specific to the micro-enterprises in the cultural field thus strongly determines the nature and the area of relevance of these groupings which are largely based on their ability to set up and develop concrete and efficient forms of mutualisation. The very interest and difficulty of these innovative organisations lie in the process of constructing and perpetuating a common pool, the object of which nevertheless also remains to accompany the development of singular projects, thus inducing a structural economic fragility, especially since the involvement of the various cooperators, most of the time, cannot be constant and equally intense in the long term. The permanent animation and coordination team of the groupings has a role that is always major and structuring as far as the communication dynamics are concerned and are themselves an essential support for the cooperative process as a whole. The diversity of their members also implies a plurality of information and communication modalities and devices. Those are not so easy to coordinate, including when they use the new digital tools that are today available. Numerous balances are thus to be found between different levels of reality and imply constant adaptations, because of the very nature of the activity of the cooperating members and of the functions that are pooled. Transmitting the grouping history and the accumulated know-how to new members is not the least of the questions that arise. The very nature of cooperative arrangements implies taking into account a diversity of actors, each one of whom has their own stakes of existence and development. It is not therefore surprising that their governance is developing according to a dynamic at several levels and modalities. While presenting itself as relatively distributed, this dynamic is in no way homogeneous. Everyone – including newcomers – will have to find their own place. Among other things, particular attention should be paid to maintaining a discussion on the substance of the cooperative project, to questioning the renewal of the formal management bodies or also to the critical size around which the project reaches its maximum relevance. In the end, only a systemic assessment of these groupings will make it possible to better understand the peculiarity of their innovative running. The analysis thus shows the full interest, but also the structural difficulties, of such approaches, if only to consolidate the economic viability of these projects whose stakes are not first and foremore economic. |
| Abstract: | Ce rapport porte sur une recherche exploratoire menée entre octobre 2016 et juin 2017 sur trois cas d’agencement coopératif, impliquant majoritairement des micro-entreprises culturelles poursuivant des buts d’abord autres que lucratifs : Artenréel, Coopérative d’activités et d’emploi à Strasbourg ; l’AGEC, Groupement d’employeurs à Bordeaux ; La Coursive Boutaric, Pôle territorial de coopération économique à Dijon. L’analyse souligne la centralité à accorder aux spécificités socioéconomiques du domaine culturel si l’on veut mieux comprendre ce qui se joue dans les agencements coopératifs entre micro-entreprises qui s’y développent de nos jours. Les logiques de projet propres aux micro-entreprises du domaine culturel déterminent ainsi fortement la nature et la zone de pertinence de ces groupements. Ceux-ci reposent très largement sur leur capacité à mettre en place et à développer des formes concrètes et efficientes de mutualisation. Tout l’intérêt et toute la difficulté de ces organisations innovantes résident alors dans la construction et la pérennisation d’un commun, dont l’objet reste pourtant aussi d’accompagner le développement de projets singuliers. Une fragilité économique structurelle s’en trouve induite, d’autant que l’implication des différents coopérants ne saurait, la plupart du temps, être constante et à même intensité dans la durée. Le rôle de l’équipe permanente d’animation et de coordination des groupements est toujours majeur et structurant pour la dynamique communicationnelle, qui est elle-même un support essentiel du processus coopératif dans son ensemble. La diversité de leurs adhérents implique également une pluralité de modalités et de dispositifs d’information et de communication. Ceux-ci ne se révèlent pas si simples à coordonner, y compris quand ils utilisent les nouveaux outils numériques aujourd’hui disponibles. De nombreux équilibres sont ainsi à trouver entre différents niveaux de réalité et impliquent des adaptations incessantes, de par la nature même de l’activité des membres coopérants et des fonctions qui sont mises en commun. La transmission à de nouveaux membres de l’histoire du groupement et des savoir-faire accumulés n’est pas la moindre des questions qui se posent. La nature même des agencements coopératifs induit une prise en compte d’une diversité d’acteurs ayant chacun leurs propres enjeux d’existence et de développement. Il n’est donc pas surprenant que leur gouvernance se développe selon une dynamique à plusieurs niveaux et modalités. Tout en se présentant comme relativement distribuée, cette dynamique n’est en rien homogène. Chacun – dont les nouveaux entrants – aura à y trouver sa propre place. Une attention particulière est à porter, entre autres, au maintien d’une discussion sur le fond du projet coopératif, à la question du renouvellement des instances formelles de direction ou à celle de la taille critique autour de laquelle le projet atteint sa pertinence maximale. Au final, seule une évaluation systémique de ces groupements est en mesure de mieux appréhender la particularité de leur fonctionnement innovant. L'analyse montre ainsi tout l'intérêt, mais aussi les difficultés en partie structurelles, de telles démarches, ne serait-ce que pour consolider la viabilité économique de projets porteurs d’enjeux non principalement économiques. |
| Keywords: | Cultural entrepreneurship , Micro-enterprise , Socioeconomics,Entrepreneuriat culturel , Coopération , Micro-entreprise , Socioéconomie |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01796621&r=knm |
| By: | Rashid Javed (UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Mazhar Mughal (ESC Pau) |
| Abstract: | Son preference is common in many Asian countries. Though a growing body of literature examines the drivers and socioeconomic impacts of phenomenon in case of China and India, work on other Asian countries is scarce. This study uses nationally representative survey of over 13 thousand households from Pakistan (PDHS 2012-13) to analyze the effects of observed preference for sons on women’s participation in intra-household decision-making. Four key intra-household decisions are considered: decisions regarding healthcare, family visits, large household purchases and spending husband's income. These correspond to four categories of household decisions, namely healthcare, social, consumption and financial. Probit and Ordered Probit are employed as the main estimation techniques and other determinants of household decision-making are controlled for. Besides, a number of matching routines are employed to account for the possibility of potential selection bias. We find that women with at least one son have more say in household decisions. Bearing at least one son is associated with 5%, 7% and 5% higher say in decisions involving healthcare, social and consumption matters respectively. Women's role in financial affairs, however, does not differ significantly from women with no sons. Female participation in decisionmaking grows significantly with the number of sons but only up to the third parity. These results are particularly visible among younger, wealthier and educated women, and those who got married earlier. The findings suggest a limited improvement in women's bargaining power at home resulting from the birth of one or more sons. This in part explains higher desire for sons expressed by women compared to men in household surveys. |
| Abstract: | La préférence pour les garçons est courante en asie. Alors que beaucoup d’études s’intéressent aux facteurs et aux impacts socioéconomiques de ce phénomène en Chine et en Inde, les travaux sur les autres pays asiatiques sont plus rares. A partir d’une enquête nationale réalisée sur plus de 13 000 ménages pakistanais (PDHS 2012-13), cette étude analyse les effets de la préférence pour les garçons sur la participation des femmes aux décisions prises dans le ménage. Quatre décisions importantes du ménage seront prises en compte : celles relatives aux soins de santé, aux visites de famille, sur les achats du ménage et sur l’affectation des dépenses des revenus du mari. Celles-ci représentent quatre catégories des décisions au sain du ménage : les décisions lié à la santé, aux liens sociaux, à la consommation et aux affaires financières. Les méthodes Probit et Probit Ordinal sont utilisées pour les estimations de base et d’autres déterminants liés aux décisions prises dans le ménage seront pris en compte. De plus, méthodes d’appariment sont utilisées pour tenir compte d’éventuels biais de sélection. Les résultats indiquent que le fait d’avoir au moins un fils a une influence sur les décisions du ménage. Le fait d’avoir au moins un fils est associé à une hausse de 5%, 7% et 5% sur les décisions impliquant respectivement les soins de santé, les relations sociales et la consommation. L’implication des femmes dans les finances du ménage ne varie pourtant pas significativement avec celle des femmes sans fils. La participation des femmes dans les prises de décision augmente avec le nombre de fils mais seulement jusqu’à 3 garçons. Ce résultat entraine une amélioration relative sur le pouvoir de négociation des femmes au sein du ménage suite à la naissance d’un ou plusieurs garçons. Cela explique en partie le désir plus fort des femmes d’avoir des fils par rapport aux hommes, selon les enquêtes ménages. |
| Keywords: | intrahousehold bargaining,Son preference, Gender bias, Sex selection, Female decision-making,préférence pour les garçons , biais de genre , prise de décision de femmes , Pakistan. |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01810509&r=knm |
| By: | Dubois, C.; Gaigi, H.; Pérignon, M.; Maillot, M.; Darmon, N. |
| Abstract: | Opticourses is a multi-partner and participative health promotion program, which was developed with and for socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals to improve the nutritional quality of their household food purchases without additional cost. The Opticourses program values foods with good nutritional quality and price using in-store social marketing actions (supply side) and participative workshops based on playful activities about food purchasing practices and nutritional quality, price and taste of foods (demand side). This article presents the co-construction and the evaluation of the demand side of Opticourses. The quantitative evaluation, using experimental economics to limit declarative bias, showed that workshops participation improves experimental food purchases (less calories, less free sugars) without additional cost. The qualitative evaluation revealed positive changes in the type of foods purchased, in purchasing strategies and in culinary practices. This study provides evidence on the effectiveness of the opticourses workshops. ....French Abstract: Opticourses est un programme de promotion de la santé, multipartenarial et participatif élaboré pour et avec des personnes soumises à de fortes contraintes budgétaires pour qu’elles puissent mieux conjuguer équilibre alimentaire et petit budget quand elles font leurs courses. Le programme Opticourses s’appuie sur la valorisation des aliments de bonne qualité nutritionnelle et de bon prix, à travers des actions de marketing social en magasin (volet offre) et à travers des ateliers qui proposent des activités ludiques sur les pratiques d’achats, la qualité nutritionnelle, le goût et le prix des aliments (volet demande). Cet article présente la co-construction et l’évaluation du volet demande d’Opticourses. L’évaluation quantitative, basée sur l’économie expérimentale pour limiter les biais de déclaration, a montré que la participation aux ateliers améliore les intentions d’achat (moins de calories, moins de produits sucrés) sans entraîner de dépense supplémentaire. L’évaluation qualitative a mis en évidence des améliorations portant sur le type d’aliments achetés, les stratégies d’achats et les pratiques culinaires des participants. Cette étude apporte des données probantes sur l’efficacité des ateliers Opticourses. |
| Keywords: | HEALTH PROMOTION; LOW-INCOME; NUTRITION; FOOD PURCHASING BEHAVIOR; FOOD PRICES; EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS; PROMOTION DE LA SANTE; PRECARITE; COMPORTEMENTS D’ACHAT; PRIX; ECONOMIE EXPERIMENTALE |
| JEL: | D12 E21 R21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umr:wpaper:201803&r=knm |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The Iranian economy has greatly benefited from the lifting of international sanctions in 2016, when the JCPOA nuclear deal came into force. Oil production and exports rebounded strongly, which spilled over into non-oil sectors. However, the economy is yet to return to its 1976 peak in real per capita GDP terms, reflecting numerous challenges over the past four decades, including poor policy choices and the fallout from persistent conflict with the US. This report presents a broad overview of the Iranian economy, and identifies the main challenges to long-run economic development, including in foreign trade and investment, fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policy, and the institutional environment. It concludes that an already difficult situation for Iranian policy-makers will be exacerbated by the US decision to pull out of the JCPOA, and the introduction of new sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Iran, European Union, international trade, foreign direct investment, macroeconomic environment, privatisation, political economy of sanctions |
| JEL: | E02 E62 F19 F31 F51 G32 O13 P48 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:429&r=knm |
| By: | Christian Furtwängler; Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Campus Essen)) |
| Abstract: | There is a broad consensus that the energy transition planned in Europe, along with an increasing share of renewable energy sources, demands a sufficient number of flexibility providers. The established flexibility procurement mechanisms, notably the reserve markets, are expected to reflect the cost of flexibility provision. As more flexibility is needed – given a higher resulting uncertainty of residual load levels – prices for such provision are expected to rise. In recent years, however, reserve provision prices in Germany have shown a decreasing tendency, with overall reserve demand remaining constant. This contribution proposes to analyse first the equilibrium pricing of reserve power against the electricity spot market in a stylized setting. A fundamental market model is used to analyse the price effects of reserve flexibility from Combined Heat and Power (CHP) entering both markets, using 2016 data as input. Four cases are analysed to assess the effects of different reserve market characteristics. In Case 1, CHP plants may not provide secondary reserve for the reserve market and a stylized heat demand curve is considered as operating restriction of CHP plants in the spot market. Case 2 allows reserve provision by CHP plants, but models these plants without heat restrictions. Case 3 considers the combination of the stylized heat demand curve and reserve from CHP plants. Case 4 extends Case 3 by 100 small CHP power plant pools, analysing their additional effect on reserve prices. From June 2018 on, secondary reserve in Germany will be auctioned in four-hour tenders, instead of the current weekly peak/off-peak auction design. We therefore compare the results to such an alternative auction regime with the same demand, but four-hour reserve provision tenders to reflect upcoming market design changes. Our approach leads to spot prices at a similar mean level compared to historical data, with MAE values in a range from 5.91-6.64 €/MWh for all cases. The positive reserve price levels in this approach also compare to mean historical price levels. The price lowering effect of flexibility provision from CHP is clearly identifiable, underscoring the importance of explicit modelling of heat demand restrictions. A change of the reserve tender regime towards 4-hour tenders further lowers positive reserve prices in all cases. As a result, low reserve price levels may be expected to persist in the medium term despite the expected increase of intermitting generation. |
| Keywords: | Equilibrium pricing, flexibility provision, reserve markets, combined heat and power, heat restrictions |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dui:wpaper:1803&r=knm |
| By: | Konstantin Buechel, Maximilian von Ehrlich |
| Abstract: | Social interactions are considered pivotal to urban agglomeration forces. This study employs a unique dataset on mobile phone calls to examine how social interactions differ across cities and peripheral areas. We first show that geographical distance is highly detrimental to interpersonal exchange. We then reveal that individuals residing in high-density locations do not benefit from larger social networks, but from a more efficient structure in terms of higher matching quality and lower clustering. These results are derived from two complementary approaches: Based on a link formation model, we examine how geographical distance, network overlap, and sociodemographic (dis)similarities impact the likelihood that two agents interact. We further decompose the effects from individual, location, and time specific determinants on micro-level network measures by exploiting information on mobile phone users who change their place of residence. |
| Keywords: | Social Interactions; Agglomeration Externalities; Network Analysis; Sorting |
| JEL: | R1 R23 Z13 D85 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdv:wpaper:credresearchpaper13&r=knm |
| By: | Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK; Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam; CESifo, Munich; Payne Institute for Earth Resources, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado) |
| Abstract: | The social cost of carbon is the marginal impact of climate change. Estimates of the total impact of climate change show that a century of climate change is about as bad as losing a decade of economic growth. Poorer countries are more vulnerable. The uncertainties are vast and skewed the wrong way. The many published estimates of the social cost of carbon span six orders of magnitude, and some studies find support for a carbon subsidy. There is mixed evidence for publication bias. Matlab code is used to illustrate key sensitivities of the social cost of carbon; readers can readily run their own analyses. The bulk of the published estimates suggests that carbon dioxide should be taxed somewhere between $20/tC and $400/tC, depending on the preferred rates of discount and risk aversion. Revealed preferences on carbon pricing are at the lower end of this range. The social cost of carbon rises at around 2% per year. The central estimate of the social cost of carbon has not moved much over the last two decades, but the range of estimates is tightening slowly. |
| Keywords: | climate change; Pigou tax; climate policy |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:1318&r=knm |
| By: | Demary, Markus |
| Abstract: | The study of non-performing loans (NPLs) is highly relevant when looking for a solution to the ongoing structural weaknesses in the Euro area banking sectors, especially in light of the planned completion of the banking union and the introduction of a European Deposit Insurance System (EDIS). While the aggregate data on non-performing loans shows some improvements, it cannot be ruled out that problems within large and systemically important banks may persist. For the quantification of these risks, the analysis of NPLs must be based on individual bank data. In order to gain a greater insight, I therefore built a dataset of 76 large and systemically relevant banks in the Euro area, which cover 74.6 percent of the non-performing loans in the Euro area. Although data points had to be imputed with the help of other data sources, the dataset provides a helpful impression of the ongoing problems with NPLs. The analysis reveals that banks with an NPL ratio of 25 percent or higher represent 10.5 percent of the systemically important banks studied here. Moreover, close to 20 percent of the outstanding amounts of the NPLs concentrates on banks with an NPL ratio of 25 percent or higher. When it comes to the dynamics of the NPLs, the decline in the aggregate NPL ratio of the Euro area was mainly driven by banks with moderate NPL ratios that reduced their NPLs further, while banks with higher NPL ratios contributed negatively to the aggregate NPL ratio. In order to demonstrate the extent to which NPLs can be reduced, I ran several simulations with the dataset. A reduction of NPLs in the amount of the loan-loss provisions of the banks is simulated first. It can be seen that the share of banks with an NPL ratio of only up to three percent could increase from 31.6 percent to 53.9 percent. However, the divide in the banking sector also shows up when it comes to write-offs: banks with a low NPL ratio can easily reduce it even further, while banks with a high NPL ratio have a hard time in reducing it significantly. The problem becomes even more severe at the long end of the NPL distribution. Although the number of banks with an NPL ratio of more than 25 percent can be reduced from 10.5 percent to 3.9 percent, there still remains two large with an NPL ratio of more than 25 percent. I also simulated an additional write-off together with recapitalisation measures with the aim of finding banks with NPL ratios of 3 percent or lower and equity capital ratios of at least 7 percent. The recapitalisation costs of the banks in Cyprus would then amount to 2.4 percent of the GDP for each year from 2019 to 2022, while the yearly recapitalisation of the Greek banks would amount to 2.0 percent of the Greek GDP. In Italy, yearly recapitalisation measures would amount to 0.8 percent of the Italian GDP. Less exposed would be Spain with yearly recapitalisation costs of 0.4 percent of the GDP. I conclude from these results, that there are still significant risks in the national banking sectors of the Eurozone, which implies the danger of rendering a common Euro area Deposit Insurance System into a transfer mechanism. If neither the governments nor the private sectors were willing to bear the costs of reducing NPLs and recapitalising their banks, it would be better to abandon the idea of a common deposit insurance or to postpone it far into the future in the hope that banks will grow out of their NPL problems. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:162018&r=knm |
| By: | Jayne, Thomas S.; Kwame Yeboah, Felix.; Henry, Carla. |
| Abstract: | Rapidly rising demand for food, fuelled by population and income growth, will provide major opportunities for agri-food systems to accelerate employment creation and transform African economies. Seizing these opportunities will require African agriculture to become more inclusive and profitable. Greater profits in farming will generate greater expenditures by millions of people in rural areas that fuel the transition to a more diversified and robust economy. Higher incomes for millions of households engaged in agriculture will expand the demand for goods and services – and therefore employment – in the non-farm economy, while also opening up new employment opportunities across all stages of agri-food systems. Making agriculture more profitable and inclusive will require public actions to reduce costs in farm production and agri-food systems, and address soil degradation, climate change, land scarcity and concentrated land ownership. The future of work in Africa will, therefore, depend on how well the enabling environment created through policies and programmes can enhance agricultural productivity growth and enable agriculture to contribute to more broad-based employment generation and the overall agenda for economic transformation. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987492102676&r=knm |
| By: | Chakravorty, Ujjayant; Hubert, Marie-Hélène; Marchand, Beyza Ural |
| Abstract: | More than 40% of US grain is used for energy due to the Renewable Fuels Mandate (RFS). There are no studies of the global distributional consequences of this purely domestic policy. Using micro-level survey data, we trace the effect of the RFS on world food prices and their impact on household level consumption and wage incomes in India. We first develop a partial equilibrium model to estimate the effect of the RFS on the price of selected food commodities - rice, wheat, corn, sugar and meat and dairy, which together provide almost 70% of Indian food calories. Our model predicts that world prices for these commodities rise by 8-16% due to the RFS. We estimate the price pass-through to domestic Indian prices and the effect of the price shock on household welfare through consumption and wage incomes. Poor rural households suffer significant welfare losses due to higher prices of consumption goods, which are regressive. However they benefit from a rise in wage incomes, mainly because most of them are employed in agriculture. Urban households also bear the higher cost of food, but do not see a concomitant rise in wages because only a small fraction of them work in food related industries. Welfare losses are greater among urban households. However, more poor people in India live in villages, so rural poverty impacts are larger in magnitude. We estimate that the mandate leads to about 26 million new poor: 21 million in rural and five million in the urban population. |
| Keywords: | Biofuels; Distributional effects; Household welfare; Renewable Fuel Standards; Poverty |
| JEL: | D31 O12 Q24 Q42 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:32694&r=knm |
| By: | Elisabetta Aurino; Jean-Pierre Tranchant; Amadou Sekou Diallo; Aulo Gelli; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | We rely on a unique pre-crisis baseline and five-year follow-up to investigate the effects of emergency school feeding and general food distribution (GFD) on children’s schooling during conflict in Mali. We estimate programme impact on child enrolment, absenteeism and attainment by combining difference in differences with propensity score matching. School feeding led to increases in enrolment by 11 percentage points and to about an additional half-year of completed schooling. Attendance among boys residing in households receiving GFD, however, declined by about 20 per cent over the comparison group. Disaggregating by conflict intensity showed that receipt of any programme led to rises in enrolment mostly in high-intensity conflict areas and that the negative effects of GFD on attendance were also concentrated in the most affected areas. Conversely, school feeding mostly raised attainment among children residing in areas not in the immediate vicinity of the conflict. Programme receipt triggered adjustments in child labour. Thus, school feeding led to lower participation and time spent in work among girls, while GFD raised children’s labour, particularly among boys. The educational implications of food assistance should be considered in planning humanitarian responses to bridge the gap between emergency assistance and development by promoting children’s education. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa956&r=knm |
| By: | Gu, Yewen (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Wallace, Stein W. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Wang, Xin (Dept. of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Global warming has become one of the most popular topics on this planet in the past decades, since it is the challenge that needs the efforts from the whole mankind. Maritime transportation, which carries more than 90% of the global trade, plays a critical role in the contribution of green house gases (GHGs) emission. Unfortunately, the GHGs emitted by the global fleet still falls outside the emission reduction scheme established by the Kyoto Protocol. Alternative solutions are therefore strongly desired. Several market-based measures are proposed and submitted to IMO for discussion and evaluation. In this paper, we choose to focus on one of these measures, namely Maritime Emissions Trading Scheme (METS). An optimization model integrating the classical fleet composition and deployment problem with the application of ETS (global or regional) is proposed. This model is used as a tool to study the actual impact of METS on fleet operation and corresponding CO2 emission. The results of the computational study suggest that in the short term the implementation of METS may not guarantee further emission reduction in certain scenarios. However, in other scenarios with low bunker price, high allowance cost or global METS coverage, a more significant CO2 decrease in the short term can be expected. |
| Keywords: | Maritime Emissions Trading Scheme; CO2 emissions; maritime fleet composition; deployment model |
| JEL: | C44 C60 Q50 |
| Date: | 2018–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2018_010&r=knm |
| By: | Grégory Claeys; Maria Demertzis; Konstantinos Efstathiou |
| Abstract: | This policy contribution was prepared for the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (ECON) as an input for the Monetary Dialogue of 9 July 2018 between ECON and the President of the ECB. The original paper is available on the European Parliament’s webpage (here). Copyright remains with the European Parliament at all times. This Policy Contribution tries to answer two main questions - can cryptocurrencies acquire the role of money? And what are the implications for central banks and monetary policy? Money is a social institution that serves as a unit of account, a medium of exchange and a store of value. With the emergence of decentralised ledger technology (DLT), cryptocurrencies represent a new form of money - privately issued, digital and enabling peer-to-peer transactions. Historically, currencies fulfil their main functions successfully when their value is stable and their user network sufficiently large. So far, cryptocurrencies are arguably falling short against these criteria. They resemble speculative assets rather than money. Primarily this is because of their inherent volatility, which is the by-product of their inelastic supply, and which limits their widespread use as a medium of exchange. Cryptocurrency protocols could theoretically evolve to limit their volatility and correct their current deficiencies. If successful, this could lead to an increase in their popularity as an alternative to official currencies. A successful alternative to official currencies could put pressure on those who manage official currencies to provide better policies. But the widespread substitution of central bank currency for cryptocurrencies would effectively create parallel currencies. This by itself could create risks to the effectiveness of monetary policy, to financial stability and ultimately to growth. Nevertheless, the risks of cryptocurrencies becoming serious contenders remain small as long as fiat currencies issued by the world’s major central banks continue to deliver effectively the three traditional functions of money. It would take a deep crisis of trust in official currencies for their widespread substitution by cryptocurrencies to materialise. For cryptocurrencies to replace official currencies they would have to overcome a triple challenge. First, the supply of cryptocurrency would need to act as an instrument (or identify a different instrument) that affects the economy. Second, in the presence of fractional reserve banking, the supply would need to respond to liquidity crises and act as a lender of last resort in order to safeguard financial stability. Third, there would need to be a system of checks and balances to keep the agent, ie the cryptocurrency issuer, accountable to the principal, ie society, which is not possible because cryptocurrencies are automatically and privately-issued. For these reasons, official currencies controlled by inflation-targeting independent central banks still appear to be a far superior technology than cryptocurrencies to provide the money functions. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:26557&r=knm |
| By: | Shigeru Matsumoto; Viet Ngu Hoang |
| Abstract: | The Great Tohoku Earthquake and massive tsunami disabled the Fukushima Daiichi power plant cooling system, which resulted in a meltdown of the reactor core and hydrogen explosion of the reactor buildings. A large amount of radioactive substances was released into the environment and the agricultural production in surrounding area was severely damaged by the radioactive contamination. Many experimental studies have been conducted after the nuclear accident to understand how consumers evaluate the internal radiation exposure risk associated with the consumption of agricultural food produced in the affected region. The studies have reported that a typical consumer differentiates agricultural foods produced at the contaminated region from those produced at non-contaminated region and then spends non-negligible amounts of money to lower their perceived internal radiation exposure risk. However, only a few studies have examined how internal radiation exposure risk is evaluated at the market level. In this study, we analyze the sales data of Japanese wholesale markets to examine how consumers' valuation about agricultural food has been altered by the nuclear accident. By modifying the Dixit-Stiglitz demand model, we propose an empirical model to quantify the change in consumer's valuation between competitive agricultural products. We then apply the proposed model for the analysis of daily peach sales data obtained from Japanese wholesale markets. Our empirical results demonstrate that consumer valuation of Fukushima peach dropped significantly in the nuclear accident year, but it rapidly recovered in the following year. The result suggests that the measures against radioactive contamination are positively evaluated among Japanese consumers. |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e122&r=knm |
| By: | Suzy Morrissey (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | Gender budgeting provides a way of analysing government expenditure and fiscal policy to promote gender equality. It can take many forms in practice including analysis of budget allocations, the structure of fiscal policies, expenditure tracking and monitoring systems to identify gender bias, whether explicit or implicit. It is generally understood that to ensure success such initiatives should be supported by both government and civil society. The concept of gender budgeting is now accepted globally, gaining the support of the OECD, the United Nations, the ILO, and the IMF. Some form of gender budgeting is now undertaken in over 80 countries, and while there have historically been many examples of effective application in developing countries, it is now also gaining popularity in OECD and G7 countries as they seek to address gender equality issues. This paper includes an example of gender analysis on tax concessions but other studies have focused on health, education, and labour market incentives. New Zealand has not introduced any formal gender budgeting initiatives. In this paper, its 2016 Tax Expenditure Statement was reviewed, and identified as lacking any gender specific analysis but including a number of expenditures that could have a potentially negative impact on gender equality. Tax expenditures are generally not recognised and treated as expenditure, although the financial impact is the same, and this small example illustrates how gender budgeting has the potential to provide greater transparency and analysis of expenditure on tax concessions. The paper discusses increasing the transparency of tax expenditures as an example of how gender budgeting could increase fiscal transparency in New Zealand. This paper argues that New Zealand would benefit from exploring the potential application of gender budgeting principles to increase the transparency of fiscal policy and inform policy debate. |
| Keywords: | Gender budgeting; gender analysis; tax expenditure |
| JEL: | H2 H5 I3 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztwps:18/02&r=knm |
| By: | Pascale Schnitzer; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | The methods used to identify beneficiaries of programmes aiming to address persistent poverty and shocks are subject to frequent policy debates. Relying on panel data from Niger, this paper analyses the performance of different targeting methods that are widely used by development and humanitarian actors and explores how they can be applied as part of an adaptive social protection (ASP) system. The methods include proxy-means testing (PMT), household economy analysis (HEA), geographical targeting, and combined methods. Results show that PMT performs better in identifying persistently poor households, while HEA performs better in identifying transiently food insecure households. Geographical targeting is particularly efficient in responding to food crises, which tend to be largely covariate in nature. Combinations of geographical, PMT, and HEA approaches may be used as part of an efficient and scalable ASP system. Results motivate the consolidation of data across programmes, which can support the application of alternative targeting methods tailored to programme-specific objectives. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa964&r=knm |
| By: | Nandini Krishnan; Sergio Olivieri; Racha Ramadan; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | Iraq’s public distribution system (PDS) is the only universal non-contributory social transfer system in the world. Through three decades of conflict and fragility, food rations delivered through the PDS have remained the single largest safety net among Iraq’s population. Reforming the PDS continues to be politically challenging, notwithstanding its heavy dependence on imports and associated economic distortions as well as an unsustainable fiscal burden. The fiscal crisis since mid-2014 has, however, put PDS reform back on the agenda. In this context, this paper employs a mixed demand approach to analyse consumption patterns in Iraqi households and quantify the welfare impact of a potential reform of the PDS in urban areas. The results of the ex ante simulations show that household consumption of PDS items is relatively inelastic to changes in price, particularly among the poorest quintiles, and that these goods are normal goods. Cross-sectional comparisons suggest that, with improvements in welfare, and with well-functioning markets, some segments of the population are substituting away from the PDS and increasing their consumption of market substitutes. Overall, the results suggest that any one-shot reform will have adverse and sizeable welfare impacts. The removal of all subsidies in urban areas will require compensating poor households by 74 per cent of their expenditures and the richest households by nearly 40 per cent to keep welfare constant. However, a targeted removal of the top 4 deciles from PDS eligibility in urban areas will leave poverty rates unaffected and generate cost savings, but will need to be carefully communicated and managed to counter public discontent. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa958&r=knm |
| By: | Henry, Carla.; Pechevy, Anouk. |
| Abstract: | In many agro-food supply chains, certification has become an important means of reinforcing adherence to standards on process quality and acceptability, including the acceptability of labour practices across the supply chain, and communicating this to buyers and end consumers. Certification is a procedure by which a third party gives written assurance that a product, process or service is in conformity with certain standards. There is, however, growing concern that suppliers in some agro-food industries are becoming overburdened by certification schemes, process standards and corporate codes of conduct. With multiple overlapping and costly schemes weighing in particular on individual grower suppliers, the reliability and added value of certification needs to be reassessed. Several frameworks are being considered to signal acceptable labour rights practices within food supply chains. There are currently multiple methodologies with diverse scope and coverage for monitoring and reporting on rights and working conditions in agriculture. These methodologies are based largely on the voluntary certification standards set by individual firms and industries. This paper presents the results of a comparative analysis of five leading global agro-food certification schemes that cover labour rights and protection, including for small farmers, as an integral part of their certification scope. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994987492002676&r=knm |
| By: | Eswaran, Mukesh |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a theory of decentralized, non-state-sponsored terrorism that is characteristic of contemporary reality, and that explains the rise of homegrown terrorism. We argue that the sense of social identity is a prime motivator of non-strategic terrorist activities, and we investigate its consequences and implications for defence against terrorism. Terrorist responses to perceived affronts to identity increase with altruism towards in-groups and with endogenous intensity of hate towards out-groups. We show that, while out-group spite is the more essential feature of identity pertinent to decentralized terrorism, the intensity of terrorist actions is magniï¬ ed by in-group altruism because it plays an important role in overcoming the potential free-riding of terrorists. This makes individual terrorist activities possible without coordination. We use our formulation to provide an alternative explanation for why counterterrorism measures often fail, and frequently can have a backlash effect of increasing terrorism. Our results point to the need for western democracies to reformulate their foreign policies to take account of the role these policies play in instigating contemporary terrorism. |
| Keywords: | social identity; decentralized terrorism; altruism; spite; us versus them |
| JEL: | D74 H56 |
| Date: | 2018–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubc:pmicro:tina_marandola-2018-4&r=knm |
| By: | Carrieri, V.;; Madio, L.;; Principe, F.; |
| Abstract: | The effect of marijuana liberalization on crime is object of a large interest by social scientists and policy-makers. However, due to the scarcity of relevant data, the displacement effect of liberalization on the supply of illegal drugs remained substantially unexplored. This paper exploits the unintended liberalization of cannabis light (C-light, i.e. with low THC) occurred in Italy in December 2016 by means of a legislative gap, to assess its effect in a quasi-experimental setting. Although the liberalization interested all the Italian territory, the intensity of liberalization in the short-run varied according to the pre-liberalization market configuration of grow-shops, i.e. shops selling industrial canapa-related products that have been able to first place the canapa flowers (C-light) on the new market. We exploit this variation in a Differences-in-Differences design using a unique dataset on monthly confiscations of drugs at province level (NUTS-3 level) over the period 2016-2018 matched with data on the geographical location of shops and socio-demographic variables. We find that the legalization of C-light led to a reduction of 11-12% of confiscation of marijuana per each pre-existing grow-shop and a significant reduction of other canapa-derived drugs (plants of cannabis and hashish). Back-to-envelope calculations suggest that forgone revenues for criminal organizations amount to at least 160-200 million Euros per year. These results support the argument that, even in a short period of time and with an imperfect substitute, the organized crime’s supply of illegal drugs is displaced by the entry of official and legal retailers. |
| Keywords: | cannabis; marijuana light; crime; illegal market; diff-in-diff; |
| JEL: | K23 K42 H75 I18 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:18/15&r=knm |
| By: | Roberta Longo (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Alastair Young (Leeds liver unit, St James’s University Hospital, Leeds, UK); Ian A. Rowe (Leeds liver unit, St James’s University Hospital, Leeds, UK); Rebecca L. Jones (Leeds liver unit, St James’s University Hospital, Leeds, UK); Amy Downing (Leeds Institute of Cancer and Pathology, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK); Adam Glaser (Leeds Institute of Cancer and Pathology, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK); Giles J. Toogood (Leeds Institute of Cancer and Pathology, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK) |
| Abstract: | Background. The efficacy of liver transplantation (LT) in treating liver disease has been established through prospective and retrospective observational studies. Although LT is now regarded as the treatment of choice for liver disease, the evidence on its cost-effectiveness is lacking. Methods. In this study we conducted a systematic review of the studies that have attempted to assess the cost-effectiveness of LT. The aim is not only to assess the value for money of this particular intervention but also to investigate the sources of evidence on probabilities, costs and quality of life values used in the economic evaluations. Results. 6 studies were included in the systematic review, of which 5 were of moderate to high quality. The systematic review identified three separate questions: 1) Cost-effectiveness of LT vs no intervention; 2) LT vs alternative treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 3) type of LT, specifically donation after brain death (DBD) against donation after cardiac death (DCD). Given that randomized control trials of LT versus no transplantation are neither practical nor ethical, we find the two most common methods of investigation are decision analytic models and observational studies (prospective and retrospective). In the case of models, values for probabilities, costs and utilities are mainly derived from the literature (or expert opinion). In observational studies, instead a hypothetical comparison group is created and values for this group estimated either from prognostic models or from the patients in the waiting list for transplantation. In both cases, sources of uncertainty are multiple because of the use of many assumptions. Conclusions. The evidence reviewed suggests that LT is cost-effective when compared to no transplantation; whilst evidence on LT vs alternative treatment for HCC is inconclusive and evidence on type of LT is dependent on the data which parametrize the model. |
| Keywords: | Liver Transplantation, Cost-Effectiveness, Systematic Review |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lee:wpaper:1805&r=knm |
| By: | Nicolas Véron |
| Abstract: | This paper has been first published in Global Policy Volume 9, Supplement 1, June 2018, and available here. It is republished by Bruegel with permission. This paper presents a holistic description and assessment of the European Union’s financial services policy since the start of financial crisis in mid-2007. The decade-long sequence is divided into four themes, in broadly chronological order - the initial reaction to the 2007-08 financial shock; subsequent initiatives framed by political developments at the EU and G20 level; the banking union from mid-2012; and more recent events centred on the United Kingdom vote to exit the EU (Brexit). The analysis identifies banking union as the watershed moment, and correspondingly assesses the EU policy response as mostly inadequate in the first half and mostly effective in the second half of the period covered. Recommendations for future reforms are made in the conclusion. Key recommendations - Complete the task of breaking the bank-sovereign vicious circle in the euro area with a reform package that includes a European Deposit Insurance Scheme that equally protects all insured deposits, the introduction of sovereign concentration charges to reduce the home bias in banks’ sovereign exposures, and the phasing out of national authorities’ ability to ring-fence banks’ capital and liquidity. Move towards a simpler, ‘twin-peaks’ architecture for financial supervision in the European Union with a strengthening of the governance and funding of the European Securities and Markets Authority and an expansion of its scope of direct responsibility over financial business conduct. A long-haul effort of further harmonisation in both banking and non-bank activities (banking union and capital markets union) to move closer to the vision of a single market for financial services, including areas such as accounting, auditing, insolvency legislation and investment taxation. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:26425&r=knm |
| By: | Leo Dobes |
| Abstract: | Reflecting its utility and versatility, asbestos was used in the past in many different products, including eaves, fences, roofs, walls, ceilings, floor coverings and backing, brake drums, pipe lagging, ironing boards, electrical meter boxes, sealants, pipes, and so on. Most Australian jurisdictions banned ‘the mining of raw asbestos and the manufacture, import and installation of products containing crocidolite (blue) and amosite (brown or grey) asbestos’ from 1985 (Fary 2012, p. 11). An Australia-wide ban on the manufacture and use of all types of asbestos and asbestos containing material took effect on 31 December 2003. Work Health and Safety legislation in all states and territories prohibits the supply, transport, use, or handling of asbestos unless an exception or exemption applies. Despite the bans, remnant asbestos products are still ubiquitous, particularly in older Australian homes. Exposure to asbestos fibres may result in asbestos-related disease, which in turn may lead to interstitial lung disease or various thoracic malignancies such as universally fatal bronchogenic carcinoma or mesothelioma. Inhalation of fibres is recognised as a hazard in a range of exposure levels in different occupations (Gottschall, 2002) and residential activities (Gordon & Leigh 2011), with different types of asbestos varying in their potency levels (Berman & Crump, 2008). Three “waves” of asbestos-related disease have been posited in Australia. The first is associated with the mining of raw asbestos and the manufacture of asbestos-containing products. A second wave was generated by the use of asbestos products in industry. Of greatest current concern is a growing third wave of non-industrial exposure, especially affecting those undertaking residential renovations and maintenance (Olsen et al., 2011; Musk et al. 2016; ASEA 2016). The two main themes examined in this paper are: 1. socio-economic rationale. A necessary condition for enhancing the well-being of society is that the social benefits of a proposed government action exceed its social costs. But it is also necessary to establish that any action is best undertaken by government, rather than by private firms or individuals. Situations of market failure can generally provide a prima facie case for government intervention, but the relative transaction costs and the risk of government failure also need to be considered in taking a decision. 2. cost-minimisation. Once a government has decided to take action, budgetary considerations and competing expenditure priorities will dictate that associated financial outlays be minimised as far as possible. A range of possible approaches to implementing asbestos removal are outlined, with a succinct presentation of their key advantages and disadvantages. A number of implicit and explicit assumptions are made throughout the paper. For example, the constitutional level of government involvement is left unstipulated. While state governments have primary responsibility in Australia’s federal system for public health issues, the Australian Government established an Asbestos Safety and Eradication Agency (ASEA) in 2013 to provide a national focus on asbestos issues which goes beyond workplace safety to encompass environmental and public health concerns. The agency aims to ensure that asbestos issues receive the attention and focus needed to drive change across all levels of government. References below to ‘government’ therefore refer to any combination of local, state and federal governments, but not to any specific one. Further, no distinction is made between the many types of asbestos or their effects. |
| Keywords: | asbestos, removal, market and government failure, income and equity contingent loans, reverse mortgage, Islamic finance, externalities |
| JEL: | D53 H23 Q53 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:crwfrp:1804&r=knm |