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on Informal and Underground Economics |
| By: | Morice, Alain |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Labor and Human Capital |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:weprwp:259475 |
| By: | Leiva Francisco; Cohan Pedro Pablo |
| Abstract: | The present study explores the dynamics of Argentina's informal labor market from 2004 to 2024, analyzing the stylized facts regarding the business cycle using contemporary information. The results obtained are contextualized by comparing them with studies conducted by local researchers and the main aspects highlighted in the international literature. Unlike similar studies and in line with current trends that seek to overcome the limitations caused by the lack of availability of statistical data, which poses a challenge inherent to the phenomenon studied, this research is based on a time series package filtered by the authors directly from the microdatabase of the Permanent Household Survey (EPH, for its acronym in Spanish). This survey is openly provided by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC, for its acronym in Spanish) of Argentina. |
| JEL: | E32 E24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4814 |
| By: | James Alm (Tulane University); Rida Belahouaoui (Cadi Ayyad University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the role of artificial intelligence (AI) tools in enhancing tax fraud detection within the ambit of the OECD Tax Administration 3.0, focusing on how these technologies streamline the detection process through a new "Adaptive AI Tax Oversight" (AATO) framework. Through a textometric systematic review covering the period from 2014 to 2024, we examine the integration of AI in tax fraud detection. The methodology emphasizes the evaluation of AI's predictive, analytical, and procedural benefits in identifying and combating tax fraud. The research underscores AI's significant impact on increasing detection accuracy, predictive capabilities, and operational efficiency in tax administrations. Key findings reveal the ways by which the development and application of the AATO framework improves the tax fraud detection process, and the implications offer a roadmap for global tax authorities to utilize AI in bolstering detection efforts, potentially lowering compliance expenses and improving regulatory frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, tax fraud, AATO framework, blockchain, neural networks, data mining |
| JEL: | C45 H26 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2511 |
| By: | Albrecht Bohne; James R. Hines Jr.; Antonios M. Koumpias; Annalisa Tassi |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of reverse-charge mechanism (RCM) implementation on VAT compliance using an overall, country-level measure of VAT compliance, the VAT gap. The VAT gap is defined as the overall difference between expected and realized VAT revenues and is a broader measure than outcomes employed in previous research, incorporating all types of VAT evasion. Exploiting the staggered adoption of RCM across Europe and the size of industries targeted by RCM, we compare changes in the VAT gap before and after RCM implementation. Evidence from difference-in-differences, event study, and heterogeneous treatment effects estimators indicates that the adoption of the RCM does not lead to significant EU-wide changes on the aggregate VAT gap. Moreover, our results illustrate the mixed impacts of RCM on different goods and industries, with measurable decreases in VAT losses in the construction and industrial crops industries. This study’s findings do not provide strong support for policy changes that cast the net of the RCM wider on all industries and EU member states, although bilateral coordination in RCM adoption with top trading partners may assist in curbing VAT fraud relocation. |
| Keywords: | Tax evasion, VAT, VAT gap, reverse-charge mechanism, carousel fraud |
| JEL: | H26 K42 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fbk:wpaper:2026-01 |
| By: | Brun Lidia (European Commission - JRC); Speitmann Raffael (European Commission - JRC); Stasio Andrzej Leszek (European Commission - JRC); Stoehlker Daniel (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report presents new estimates of the Corporate Income Tax (CIT) compliance gap for 23 EU Member States, Norway, and Iceland, using a harmonised top-down methodology developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC). The CIT compliance gap reflects the shortfall in revenue due to non-compliance with tax laws, including tax evasion and certain forms of tax avoidance. Recognising the limitations of existing methods—particularly the data demands of the IMF’s RA-GAP approach—the JRC proposes a simplified, scalable methodology based on Eurostat’s Tabular Approach to Exhaustiveness. This method leverages adjustments for undeclared economic activity in national accounts to estimate the gap in a transparent and comparable way. The results highlight substantial variation across countries, with compliance gaps ranging from under 3% to over 35%, and an average shortfall of 10.9% of potential CIT revenues in 2017. Sectoral analysis for selected countries reveals systematic differences in compliance across industries. The approach offers a feasible and replicable tool for regular monitoring of corporate tax compliance, supporting evidence-based policymaking and cross-country comparison. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143824 |
| By: | Reyes Luján; Navarrete José Luis |
| Abstract: | El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la relación entre la informalidad laboral y la pobreza en Argentina y Brasil. Para ello se utilizan microdatos de las encuestas de hogares del INDEC y del IBGE para los años 2016, 2019 y 2022. Se aplican técnicas de microdescomposición que permiten desagregar la brecha en la tasa de pobreza entre hogares con jefatura formal e informal en diferencias atribuibles a las características observables y los retornos a dichas características. Los resultados muestran que la pobreza es más elevada en los hogares con jefatura informal. En promedio, entre un 60% y 70% de esa brecha se explica por retornos diferenciales de los atributos de los hogares. Se observan patrones heterogéneos en los factores que explican estas diferencias, sugiriendo que responden a mecanismos heterogéneos y dependientes del contexto institucional, productivo y social de cada economía. Los hallazgos respaldan la hipótesis de segmentación laboral y aportan evidencia empírica para la discusión sobre la pobreza en la región, con implicancias directas para el diseño de políticas. |
| JEL: | I32 J46 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4833 |
| By: | Jaroszewski Vladimir |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo analiza la sostenibilidad financiera del Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino (SIPA) frente al envejecimiento demográfico, la persistente informalidad laboral y la brecha de género. Se adopta el marco de las Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencias (CNT) y se construye el Coeficiente de Presión Previsional (CPPₜ) como indicador central de equilibrio contributivo. El análisis combina datos observados (2018–2024) con proyecciones demográficas y laborales hasta 2050. Se modelan cuatro escenarios: inercial, aumento de la edad jubilatoria femenina, reducción de la informalidad y reforma combinada. Ninguna medida aislada revierte el déficit contributivo, aunque las reformas combinadas permiten contenerlo en torno al 1, 5–2 % del PIB hacia mediados de siglo. Un ejercicio de sensibilidad incorpora la dimensión de suficiencia: elevar el haber mínimo hasta la canasta básica total mejora la suficiencia, pero compromete la cobertura previsional, que podría descender hasta el 70 %. Los resultados muestran que la sostenibilidad del SIPA requiere una estrategia integral que articule ajustes paramétricos, formalización laboral y financiamiento complementario. |
| JEL: | H55 J11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4810 |