nep-iue New Economics Papers
on Informal and Underground Economics
Issue of 2025–09–08
eight papers chosen by
Catalina Granda Carvajal, Banco de la República


  1. Tax Compliance Tested by Tax Justice and Tax Morality: A Literature Review By Ayoub Bourass
  2. Tax Notches in the Lab: Disentangling Real and Evasion Responses By Michele Bernasconi; Irene Maria Buso; Anna Marenzi; Dino Rizzi
  3. Sloppiness in Tax Disputes: How to Prevent Litigation? (title of the paper) By Daniel Dyck (first name last name); Johannes Lorenz (first name last name of second author); Caren Sureth-Sloane (first name last name of third author)
  4. Tariffs and State Capacity: A Specific Example By Erik Madsen; Martin Rotemberg; Sharon Traiberman; Shizhuo Wang
  5. Climbing the (in)formality job ladder: Determinants and Dynamics of Labour Informality in Peru By Tomás Opazo
  6. Location Matters: Insights from a Natural Field Experiment to Enhance Small Business Tax Compliance in Indonesia By Sarah Xue Dong; Agung Satyadini; Mathias Sinning
  7. Emparejamiento de datos provenientes de Registros Administrativos y Encuesta de Hogares en Chile By Alfonso Barrero; César Ferreiro; Mario Giarda; Claudia Henríquez; Federico Huneeus; Manuel Taboada
  8. Protección Laboral en un Mercado Dual: Lecciones de una Pandemia By J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz; Jorge Fernández Orellana; Manu García; Daniel Pérez Gutiérrez

  1. By: Ayoub Bourass (Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales de Mohammedia, Université Hassan II, Casablanca, Maroc)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present a meta-analytic review of the literature on the key factors of tax justice and their impact on tax morale and tax compliance, highlighting the complexity of individual, institutional, and contextual factors that shape equity perceptions and taxpayer behavior. Drawing on a rigorous statistical synthesis of findings from multiple quantitative studies, this meta-analytic review identifies consistent effect patterns, assesses the relative importance of various determinants, and examines their variation across different settings. The results show that tax justice is perceived to be greater when institutions are efficient, transparent, and low in corruption, when public spending is considered fair, and when citizens participate in budgetary decision-making. Higher tax morale is associated with modernized institutions, increased trust in public authorities, and enhanced civic participation. Furthermore, sociocultural norms and values—such as culture, religion, and social norms—play a crucial role: tax moraleincreases when compliance is a socially valued norm and tax evasion is socially disapproved, while it declines in contexts marked by low social trust and high perceived levels of widespread tax evasion. This analysis underscores the importance of adoptingan integrated, evidence-based approach to strengthen tax justice and compliance across diverse institutional and cultural contexts.
    Abstract: L'objectif de cet article est de présenter une revue méta-analytique de la littérature portant sur les facteurs clés de la justice fiscale et leur impact sur la morale et la conformité fiscales, en mettant en lumière la complexité des facteurs individuels, institutionnels et contextuels qui influencent les perceptions d'équité et les comportements des contribuables. En s'appuyant sur une synthèse statistique rigoureuse des résultats d'études quantitatives publiées, cette revue méta-analytique permet d'identifier des effets convergents, de pondérer l'importance relative des différents déterminants et d'analyser leur variation selon les contextes. Les résultats montrent que la justice fiscale est perçue comme plus grande lorsque les institutions sont efficaces, transparentes et peu corrompues, que les dépenses publiques sont jugées équitables, et que les citoyens participent aux décisions budgétaires. Une morale fiscale plus élevée est associée à des institutions modernisées, à une confiance accrue dans les autorités publiques et à une meilleure participation citoyenne. En outre, les normes et valeurs socioculturelles —telles que la culture, la religion et les normes sociales —jouent un rôle clé : la morale fiscale s'accroît lorsque la conformité est une norme sociale valorisée et que la fraude est socialement désapprouvée, tandis qu'elle s'effrite dans les contextes marqués par une faible confiance sociale et une forte perception de l'évasion fiscale généralisée. Cette analyse souligne ainsi l'importance d'adopter une perspective intégrée et fondée sur des données probantes pour renforcer la justice et la conformité fiscales dans divers cadres institutionnels et culturels.
    Keywords: Impôt, Justice fiscale, morale fiscale, conformité fiscale, tax morale, tax compliance, Fraude fiscale
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05226744
  2. By: Michele Bernasconi (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Irene Maria Buso (University of Bologna); Anna Marenzi (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Dino Rizzi (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice)
    Abstract: Several empirical studies find large behavioural responses to the incentives created by tax notches, highlighting the challenge of distinguishing between responses driven by real effects and by tax reporting. In a lab experiment, we find strong evidence of excessive bunching in a tax notch system, both with and without evasion possibilities. The effort adjustments are mainly from above the threshold, while the evasion adjustments are mainly from below the threshold. Both adjustments contribute to a reduction in the underreporting rate. We also confirm evidence of optimisation frictions. They are stronger when evasion is possible than when it is not. A gender breakdown highlights both the robustness of the effects found and the impact that heterogeneous preferences can have on the overall responses to tax notches.
    Keywords: Tax Evasion, Effort, Bunching, Lab Experiment
    JEL: H24 H26 C91
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:15
  3. By: Daniel Dyck (first name last name) (Paderborn University); Johannes Lorenz (first name last name of second author) (University of Regensburg (workplace of second author)); Caren Sureth-Sloane (first name last name of third author) (Paderborn University (workplace of third author))
    Abstract: This study introduces sloppiness---the inaccurate preparation of supporting information during tax disputes---as a neglected but critical factor influencing taxpayer noncompliance. We conceptualize sloppiness as arising both from imperfections in the internal information environment, exacerbated by structural uncertainty over litigation outcomes (factual dimension), and from strategic aversion to compliance effort (strategic dimension). We examine whether and to what extent improved documentation and engaging an internal monitoring expert can mitigate sloppiness and prevent litigation. Using a game-theoretic model, we derive equilibrium strategies for a tax manager's compliance effort, a monitoring expert's dispute resolution effort, and a tax authority's litigation decision. Absent a monitoring expert, we find that improved documentation consistently reduces the litigation probability. However, when a monitoring expert is present, we surprisingly find that improved documentation crowds out compliance effort and can increase the litigation probability. Overall, our results suggest that sloppiness can be overcome either through strong documentation alone or by engaging a monitoring expert when documentation is weak, with the latter approach becoming more attractive as the dispute resolution costs decline.(abstract of the paper)
    Keywords: sloppiness, tax dispute, monitoring experts, litigation (keywords)
    JEL: H25 H26 C72 K34
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:155
  4. By: Erik Madsen; Martin Rotemberg; Sharon Traiberman; Shizhuo Wang
    Abstract: Evasion is a key obstacle to raising customs revenue. We study how improved administrative capacity enables governments to combat evasion by redesigning tariff codes. Using newly compiled historical records from the Early American Republic, we show that as Customs administration matured, the tariff code became more complex and more reliant on specific (quantity-based) tariffs in preference to ad valorem (value-based) ones. We develop an equilibrium model of tariff administration with costly verification of declared values that explains these twin trends: Administrative capacity allows Customs officials to disaggregate goods and assess tailored specific tariffs, obviating misvaluation while minimizing price distortions. The model successfully predicts several additional empirical patterns: Specific tariffs tend to be assessed on goods that are homogeneous, cheap, or lightly taxed.
    JEL: D82 F10 H26 N41
    Date: 2025–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34143
  5. By: Tomás Opazo
    Abstract: The informal labour market represents a significant component of employment in Peru, more than twothirds of the workers are situated in the informal economy. This paper explores the prevalence, determinants, and dynamics of labour informality in Peru, considering the extensive margin, where unregistered firms hire unregistered workers, and the intensive margin, in which, even when firms are registered with tax authorities, hire employees off the books. Exploiting a rich household survey (ENAHO) between 2007 and 2019, the paper identifies key determinants of informality, such as gender, age, experience and education. Furthermore, the paper analyses transitions into and out of labour informality and the factors influencing these transitions over time. The findings suggest that labour and firm informality are influenced by both structural economic conditions and individual characteristics. Finally, the paper explores the linkages between workers’ transitions and subsequent changes in their labour income. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of informal employment in Peru, with lessons for Latin America, offering insights for policymakers aiming to enhance labour market formalisation and social protection.
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1028
  6. By: Sarah Xue Dong; Agung Satyadini; Mathias Sinning
    Abstract: Tax compliance among small businesses remains low in developing countries, yet little is known about how regional context shapes the effectiveness of enforcement strategies. Both theory and evidence suggest an ambiguous relationship between compliance and geographic proximity to tax offices. We study this issue using a large-scale natural field experiment with Indonesia's tax authority involving 12, 000 micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Businesses were randomly assigned to receive deterrence, information, or public goods letters, or no message. All letters improved compliance, with deterrence messages producing the largest gains - substantially increasing filing rates and raising monthly tax payments. Each dollar spent on deterrence letters generated about US$30 in additional revenue over the course of a year. We observe high compliance among non-treated MSMEs near metropolitan tax offices and find that enforcement messages successfully raise compliance in non-metropolitan regions to comparable levels. However, targeting already compliant MSMEs near metropolitan tax offices backfires, underscoring the need for geographically tailored tax administration strategies. These results provide novel experimental evidence on the relation between geographic proximity and the effectiveness of tax enforcement, helping to reconcile mixed findings in the tax compliance literature.
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.02328
  7. By: Alfonso Barrero; César Ferreiro; Mario Giarda; Claudia Henríquez; Federico Huneeus; Manuel Taboada
    Abstract: This paper develops a novel methodology to combine administrative records and household surveys using Optimal Transport. This allows us to preserve all information from individual tax records, bringing in informal income and capturing the real size of households (as reported in surveys) while preserving official marriage and filial relationships. The preliminary results are different from those obtained using only surveys as the main source of income information and this method will provide the basis to measure Household Distributional Accounts for Chile in the future.
    Date: 2024–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1034
  8. By: J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz; Jorge Fernández Orellana; Manu García; Daniel Pérez Gutiérrez
    Abstract: Este artículo analiza la protección laboral recibida por los trabajadores jóvenes durante la pandemia de la COVID-19 en España. Utilizando datos administrativos de la Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales (MCVL), se estudia el grado de cobertura proporcionado por los mecanismos de mantenimiento del empleo (ERTEs) y otras prestaciones del sistema de protecci´on social. Los resultados muestran que los jóvenes sufrieron tanto las mayores p´erdidas de empleo como las menores tasas de cobertura: solo un 51 % de los menores de 20 años recibió algún tipo de protección, frente a más del 93 % entre los trabajadores de mayor edad. Esta diferencia no se explica por un trato desigual dentro de los instrumentos, sino por factores estructurales como la segmentación contractual y la concentraci´on sectorial del empleo juvenil. El análisis econométrico confirma que, en el caso de los ERTE, la menor cobertura de los jóvenes se debe a su posición más precaria en el mercado laboral, y desaparece una vez que se controla por tipo de contrato y antigüedad. En cambio, en el acceso a prestaciones, subsidios o pensiones, la desprotecci´on persiste incluso tras esos controles, lo que revela una forma de exclusi´on asociada al diseño institucional del sistema. En conjunto, los resultados ponen de relieve que, incluso cuando las políticas tienen un diseño formalmente universal, su impacto puede ser regresivo si el mercado laboral presenta una fuerte dualidad. En este sentido, la reforma laboral de 2021, al reducir la segmentación contractual, podría contribuir a mejorar la protección de los colectivos más vulnerables ante futuras crisis.
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2025-18

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