nep-iue New Economics Papers
on Informal and Underground Economics
Issue of 2025–05–19
eight papers chosen by
Catalina Granda Carvajal, Banco de la República


  1. Using Household Surveys and Specialized Enterprise Surveys to Measure Informal Enterprises By Akuffo Amankwah; Hibret Belete Maemir; Pauline Castaing; Amparo Palacios-Lopez; Attah-Ankomah, Richmond; Diego Zardetto; David C. Francis
  2. Inter-municipal cooperation and tax enforcement capabilities By Naruki Notsu; Haruaki Hirota; Nobuo Akai
  3. Beyond Financial Protection: A Comprehensive Framework for Value for Money in Health Insurance for Informal Sector Populations By Dror, David Mark
  4. Riding the Demographic Wave : Pensions and Retirement Income in an Aging World By Gonzalo Javier Reyes Hartley; Miglena Abels
  5. IMF TaxFit Model Methodology and User Guidebook By Julia Cots-Capell; Aieshwarya Davis; Duncan MacDonald
  6. Surviving the storm: how climate-related disasters reshape tax morale in sub-Saharan Africa By Enrico Nichelatti; Abrams M.E. Tagem
  7. Gen Z Perceptions On Government Gamification Initiatives To Reduce Shadow Economy In North Macedonia By Kalina Trenevska-Blagoeva; Lidija Pulevska Ivanovska; Saso Josimovski; Marina Mijoska-Belshoska; Martin Kiselicki
  8. Labor Market Scarring in a Developing Economy : Stigma versus Lost Human Capital from Plant Closings in Mexico By Francisco Javier Arias Vazquez; Daniel Lederman

  1. By: Akuffo Amankwah; Hibret Belete Maemir; Pauline Castaing; Amparo Palacios-Lopez; Attah-Ankomah, Richmond; Diego Zardetto; David C. Francis
    Abstract: This paper compares two widely used methods for surveying informal enterprises: household surveys, which collect data on enterprises through household interviews, and area-based enterprise surveys, which directly target businesses in specific geographic areas. By implementing both survey approaches simultaneously in two urban centers in Ghana, this study examines key differences and similarities in the characteristics of informal enterprises across these cities. The analysis reveals substantial variation in estimates of the number of informal enterprises between the two methods, with the household survey approach reporting a significantly higher count. The paper explores potential reasons for these differences, focusing on design and implementation factors. The findings also suggest that both survey methods yield consistent statistics for characterizing informal businesses and identifying factors that drive their performance. Characteristics such as bank account ownership, sector of operation (retail), phone usage, and operating in a fixed premise outside the household are associated with higher productivity across both surveys.
    Date: 2025–05–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11119
  2. By: Naruki Notsu (Osaka School of International Public Policy, The University of Osaka); Haruaki Hirota (Faculty of Economics, Musashi University); Nobuo Akai (Osaka School of International Public Policy, The University of Osaka)
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of enhancing the tax enforcement of administration on the tax gap, focusing on inter-municipal cooperation (IMC). IMC refers to collaborative tax collection efforts among multiple municipalities and promotes the aggregation of tax collection resources and expertise, improving tax enforcement. Using the time variation in IMC creation across municipalities, we show that IMC substantially improves the tax gap measurement by reinforcing tax enforcement in local governments. Our findings suggest that enhanced administrative capability in tax enforcement can be an effective tool against noncompliance in ways other than facilitating voluntary compliance.
    Keywords: Inter-municipal cooperation, Tax enforcement, Tax compliance
    JEL: H71 H77 H83
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:24e004rev.
  3. By: Dror, David Mark
    Abstract: Background: Traditional conceptions of "value for money" in health insurance are narrowly framed around financial metrics, inadequately capturing the multidimensional nature of value for informal sector populations. Objectives: This paper develops a theoretical framework conceptualizing value for money beyond financial protection to include preference alignment and social capital formation. Methods: We examine trust as a core mathematical variable rather than an environmental factor by analyzing generalizations from community-based health insurance schemes in India, the Philippines, Uganda, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Rwanda, and South Africa. Results: Our framework reveals trust exhibits specific properties including asymmetric response and critical thresholds, and that the Collaborative and Contributive (C&C) model generates distinctive value propositions yielding superior sustainability and willingness-to-pay metrics compared to conventional approaches. Conclusions: This framework reconceptualizes value for vulnerable populations and provides actionable design principles for optimizing insurance value across three dimensions: financial protection, preference alignment, and social capital formation.
    Abstract: Hintergrund: Traditionelle Auffassungen von „value for money“ in der Krankenversicherung sind eng auf finanzielle Kennzahlen fokussiert und erfassen den multidimensionalen Wert für Bevölkerungsgruppen im informellen Sektor nur unzureichend. Zielsetzung: Dieses Papier entwickelt ein theoretisches Rahmenkonzept, das den Begriff „value for money“ über den finanziellen Schutz hinaus erweitert – um Präferenzübereinstimmung und die Bildung von Sozialkapital. Methoden: Durch analytische Verallgemeinerung von Erfahrungen mit gemeinschaftsbasierten Krankenversicherungssystemen in Indien, den Philippinen, Uganda, Kambodscha, Bangladesch, Ruanda und Südafrika wird Vertrauen nicht als Umweltfaktor, sondern als zentrale mathematische Variable untersucht. Ergebnisse: Unser Rahmenmodell zeigt, dass Vertrauen spezifische Eigenschaften aufweist – darunter asymmetrische Reaktionen und kritische Schwellenwerte. Das Collaborative and Contributive (C&C)-Modell schafft dabei einzigartige Wertangebote mit überlegenen Nachhaltigkeits- und Zahlungsbereitschaftskennzahlen im Vergleich zu konventionellen Ansätzen. Schlussfolgerungen: Dieses Rahmenkonzept definiert den Wert für verletzliche Bevölkerungsgruppen neu und liefert praxisrelevante Gestaltungsprinzipien zur Optimierung des Versicherungswerts in drei Dimensionen: finanzieller Schutz, Präferenzübereinstimmung und Bildung von Sozialkapital.
    Keywords: Health insurance, informal sector, Trust, social capital, financial protection, community participation, health financing
    JEL: I13 O17 D91 Z13 G22 Z13 Z13 H51
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:316219
  4. By: Gonzalo Javier Reyes Hartley; Miglena Abels
    Abstract: This report examines the state of pension and social insurance systems globally, focusing on old-age income protection. It analyzes expenditure, coverage, adequacy of benefits, and sustainability of both contributory and non-contributory pension schemes. The report highlights the impact of population aging on pension systems, emphasizing the need for reforms to ensure fiscal sustainability and adequate benefits. It also explores the challenges of extending coverage to informal sector workers and the importance of gender equity in pension provision. The report concludes with recommendations for adapting pension systems to evolving economic and demographic realities, emphasizing the need for inclusive and sustainable solutions.
    Date: 2025–03–31
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:200230
  5. By: Julia Cots-Capell; Aieshwarya Davis; Duncan MacDonald
    Abstract: The TaxFit microsimulation model calculates the taxes payable and benefits receivable by hypothetical households across an expanding list of countries. It simulates personal income taxes and social security contributions for all adults in a household, as well as family benefits, social assistance, in-work benefits, and caregiver support. Users define household characteristics—such as gross income levels and family composition—to facilitate cross-country comparisons of tax burdens and benefit generosity. When microdata is available, it can be uploaded to generate diagnostic indicators that better reflect the population, assess the distributional effects of tax and benefit reforms, and estimate fiscal costs. This technical manual provides a detailed overview of the TaxFit model, explains its underlying assumptions, and offers guidance on using the Stata-based model and its associated online tool.
    Keywords: tax; social protection; simulation; work incentives; employment; informal work; effective tax rates
    Date: 2025–05–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imftnm:2025/008
  6. By: Enrico Nichelatti; Abrams M.E. Tagem
    Abstract: Climate-related disasters have increased over recent decades, with severe human and economic consequences. While research has examined their macroeconomic effects and impact on households' income and consumption patterns, little attention has been given to their impact on tax morale—taxpayers' intrinsic motivation to comply with tax obligations. This study fills this gap by estimating the impact of climate-related disasters on tax morale in 26 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data from 2011 to 2021.
    Keywords: Natural disasters, Economic inequality, Tax morale, Regression analysis, Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-30
  7. By: Kalina Trenevska-Blagoeva (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics – Skopje); Lidija Pulevska Ivanovska (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics – Skopje); Saso Josimovski (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics – Skopje); Marina Mijoska-Belshoska (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics – Skopje); Martin Kiselicki (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics – Skopje)
    Abstract: This study examines the role of the MojDDV app, a gamification initiative designed to increase fiscal transparency and curb the shadow economy in North Macedonia, by engaging citizens in reporting their purchases through receipt scanning. Leveraging the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model, this research investigates how the constructs of Performance Expectancy, Effort Expectancy, Social Influence, and Facilitating Conditions impact Generation Z's intention to use MojDDV. The UTAUT model is implemented to understand factors that drive or hinder app adoption, ultimately aiming to identify how gamification can incentivize responsible fiscal behaviour and transparency. Data was collected via a structured questionnaire, and multiple regression analysis was conducted to determine the relationships between these constructs and intention to use. The findings reveal that Facilitating Conditions and Social Influence are significant predictors of intention to use, underscoring the importance of resource accessibility and social encouragement in fostering app engagement. While both Performance Expectancy and Effort Expectancy are positively associated with intention to use, their effects are not statistically significant. This suggests that providing practical support and leveraging social networks may be more impactful for adoption than user expectations of ease and performance. These insights recommend that policymakers focus on enhancing facilitating conditions and social influence mechanisms to boost the effectiveness of gamification initiatives like MojDDV. Future studies could examine additional factors that affect app engagement and employ longitudinal methods to assess changes in user behaviour over time. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of how gamification strategies can support fiscal transparency efforts, offering valuable guidance for developing public sector innovations aimed at reducing the shadow economy.
    Keywords: Gamification, Shadow Economy, MojDDV, North Macedonia
    JEL: H26 D83 O33
    Date: 2024–12–15
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2024:i:5:p:32-45
  8. By: Francisco Javier Arias Vazquez; Daniel Lederman
    Abstract: This paper estimates the magnitude of labor market scarring in a developing economy, a setting that has been understudied by the labor scarring literature dominated by advanced economies. The paper assesses the contributions of “stigma” versus “lost human capital, ” which cause earnings losses among displaced workers relative to non-displaced workers. The findings indicate that job separations caused by plant closings result in sizable and long-lasting reductions in earnings, with an average decline of 7.5 percent in hourly wages over a nine-year period. The estimate for one year after a plant closing is larger, at a decline of 10.8 percent. In a common sample, after controlling for unobserved, time-invariant individual characteristics, the impact of a plant closing declines from 11.9 to 8.2 percent. These results imply that stigma in the labor market due to imperfect information about workers (captured by unobservable worker characteristics) accounts for 30.8 percent of the average earnings losses, whereas lost employer-specific human capital explains the remaining 69.2 percent. The paper explores the effects of job separations due to plant closings on other labor market outcomes, including hours worked and informality, and provides estimates across genders and levels of education.
    Date: 2025–05–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11116

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