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on Islamic Finance |
| By: | Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Unal, Ibrahim Musa |
| Abstract: | This paper conducts a bibliometric research in the literature on Fintech and Islamic finance. The data of this study consists of relevant articles obtained from the Scopus database as of February 2021. A keywords bundle related to Islamic finance and keyword has been used for the search, resulting in 89 publishments included in this research. Results show the stunning increase in the Islamic Fintech publishments after 2017, mainly in the fields of cryptocurrencies, micro-finance, impact investing, and SRI investing, and so on. The two main centers of Islamic Fintech research are Malaysia-Indonesia Region and the GCC area. The increasing number of Islamic Fintech publishments show the potential of the field for the industry's future. |
| Keywords: | Fintech, Islamic, bibliometric, blockchain, cryptocurrency |
| JEL: | G20 |
| Date: | 2021–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109712&r= |
| By: | Abubakar, Jamila; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk |
| Abstract: | This paper is a bibliometric study of the literature in Islamic social finance. The study analyses 595 articles, conference papers, and book chapters in Islamic social finance from 1991 to 2020 published in 262 Scopus indexed journals. The authors sourced the bibliographic data using the keywords “Islam and social finance,” “waqf,” “zakat,” “microfinance,” and variations thereof. This study is essential, especially in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic and the pandemic-induced economic disruption leading to increased global income and social inequalities, putting even more pressure on the SDGs funding gap. Novel solutions to plug the funding Gap are being sought, and recent literature has shown Islamic social finance’s potential as a solution to the SDG’s funding gap. The study finds that researchers in the field closely link Islamic social finance with sustainability and sustainable development concepts, as evidenced in keywords used by authors. We also find that Malaysia and Indonesia are leading the research in ISF. The study aims to map the field of Islamic social finance and provide a reference point for future researchers to identify the gaps in the literature and their role in enriching academic discourse in ISF to position Islamic finance appropriately in the sphere of development economics. |
| Keywords: | Islamic social finance, Zakat, Waqf, Islamic microfinance, bibliometric, trends, sustainable |
| JEL: | G00 G19 P00 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109637&r= |
| By: | Ahmet Faruk Aysan (Department of Economics - Boğaziçi University [Istanbul]); Jamila Abubakar; Ahmet Aysan |
| Abstract: | This paper is a bibliometric study of the literature in Islamic social finance. The study analyses 595 articles, conference papers, and book chapters in Islamic social finance from 1991 to 2020 published in 262 Scopus indexed journals. The authors sourced the bibliographic data using the keywords "Islam and social finance," "waqf," "zakat," "microfinance," and variations thereof. This study is essential, especially in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic and the pandemic-induced economic disruption leading to increased global income and social inequalities, putting even more pressure on the SDGs funding gap. Novel solutions to plug the funding Gap are being sought, and recent literature has shown Islamic social finance's potential as a solution to the SDG's funding gap. The study finds that researchers in the field closely link Islamic social finance with sustainability and sustainable development concepts, as evidenced in keywords used by authors. We also find that Malaysia and Indonesia are leading the research in ISF. The study aims to map the field of Islamic social finance and provide a reference point for future researchers to identify the gaps in the literature and their role in enriching academic discourse in ISF to position Islamic finance appropriately in the sphere of development economics. |
| Keywords: | Islamic social finance,Zakat,Waqf,Islamic microfinance,bibliometric,trends,sustainable |
| Date: | 2021–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03341729&r= |
| By: | Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the projected rebound of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) following the implementation of the AfCFTA and the finalization of the Africa Investment Protocol, we examine how FDI modulates the effects of various governance dynamics on inclusive growth in SSA. We do this by testing two hypotheses first, whether unconditionally FDI and various governance indicators (rule of law, control of corruption, regulatory quality, governance effectiveness, political stability, and voice and accountability) foster inclusive growth in SSA; and second, whether these governance dynamics engender positive synergy with FDI on inclusive growth in SSA. Using data from the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators and the World Development Indicators for the period 1990–2020, we employ several fixed effects, random effects, and the system GMM estimators for the analysis. First, we find that FDI and all our governance dynamics are significant inclusive growth enhancers in SSA. Second, though FDI amplifies the effects of all our governance dynamics on inclusive growth in SSA, governance effectiveness, voice and accountability, and political stability are keys. Policy recommendations are provided. |
| Keywords: | AfCFTA; Economic Integration; FDI; Governance; Inclusive Growth; Africa |
| JEL: | F6 F15 O43 O55 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/038&r= |
| By: | Marymagdaline E. Tarkang (Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey); Ruth N. Yunji (Eastern Mediterranean University, Turkey); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Uju V. Alola (Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | The mobile telecommunication (telecom) sector has become the basic source of information now-a-days especially in Cameroon. It is used to transfer and deliver information through voice, video, data, graphics, and more at perpetually increasing speeds. The quality of mobile services does not only impact the attraction of new customers but also to maintain the existing ones. The study uses relationship marketing theory and a quantitative and cross-sectional method with 200 respondents. Information was obtained from users of MTN and Orange mobile telecommunication networks. The analyses were done using SPSS version 20. Tangibility, reliability, and assurance dimensions of staff service quality showed a positive relationship with customer loyalty in mobile telecom companies in Cameroon. The findings also highlight the influence of service quality dimensions on customer loyalty in the mobile telecom companies of the country. This study complements to extant literature by examining the influence of the five service quality dimensions; tangibility, reliability, assurance, responsiveness, and empathy on consumer loyalty or retention in the mobile telecommunication companies in Cameroon. |
| Keywords: | Tangibility, Reliability, ICT, Empathy, Responsiveness, Assurance, customer loyalty |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/036&r= |
| By: | Filer, Randall Keith; Kovač, Dejan; Shapiro, Jacob N.; Srhoj, Stjepan |
| Abstract: | Bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in such procedures impact the economic performance of participating firms in the context of Croatia, which introduced a 'pre-bankruptcy settlement' (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. Local institutions left over from the communist era provide annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtor-creditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delays entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, leads to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as reduced employment, revenue, and profits. We also track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small creditors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms' future prospects. |
| Keywords: | bankruptcy,insolvency,liquidation,restructuring |
| JEL: | D02 G33 G34 L38 P37 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:102021&r= |
| By: | Klaus Adam,; Erwan Gautier,; Sergio Santoro,; Henning Weber. |
| Abstract: | Using micro price data underlying the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in France, Germany and Italy, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle and show that minimizing price and mark-up distortions in the presence of these trends requires targeting a significantly positive inflation target. Relative price trends shift the optimal inflation target up from a level of zero percent, as suggested by the standard sticky price literature, to a range of 1.1%- 2.1% in France, 1.2%-2.0% in Germany, 0.8%-1.0% in Italy, and 1.1-1.7% in the Euro Area (three country average). Differences across countries emerge due to systematic differences in the strength of relative price trends. Other considerations not taken into account in the present paper may push up the optimal inflation targets further. The welfare costs associated with targeting zero inflation turn out to be substantial and range between 2.1% and 4.5% of consumption in present-value terms. |
| Keywords: | Optimal Inflation Target, Micro Price Trends, Welfare |
| JEL: | E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:825&r= |
| By: | Marie-Laure Allain (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Claire Chambolle (ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Patrick Rey (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sabrina Teyssier (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | In a vertical chain in which two rivals invest before contracting with one of two competing suppliers, vertical integration can create hold-up problems for the rival. We develop an experiment to test this theoretical prediction in a setup in which suppliers can either pre commit ex ante to being greedy or degrade ex post the input they provide to their customer. Our experimental results confirm that vertical integration creates hold-up problems. However, vertical integration also generates more departures from theory, which can be explained by bounded rationality and social preferences. |
| Keywords: | Vertical integration,Hold-up,Experimental economics,Bounded rationality,Social preferences |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03341440&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim D. Raheem (EXCAS, Liège, Belgium); Kazeem B. Ajide (University of Lagos, Nigeria); Xuan V. Vo (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | The trilogy among economic growth, social capital (SC), and financial development is examined based on three hypotheses: first, SC is important in the finance-growth nexus. Second, there is a threshold effect of SC in the finance-growth nexus. Third, the SC-finance-growth trilogy depends on the countries' income level. Building dataset for 70 countries,someinteresting results were obtained: (i) the marginal effects of both SC and finance promotes economic growth at higher levels; (ii)there is evidence of a threshold effect of SC, as finance enhances more growth when SC is below the threshold level; (iii) higher-income countries tend not to benefit from the SC-finance-growth trilogy. These results suggest that the influence of SC on growth trajectory is exaggerated in the literature. The study recommends that policymakers should pursue other sources of economic growth aside SC, while ensuring that the level of SC does not deteriorate. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, Financial development, Social capital, and Threshold effect |
| JEL: | O43 G20 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/050&r= |
| By: | Henning Hermes (NHH Bergen, FAIR & Department of Economics); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich & ifo Institute at the University of Munich and CESifo); Frauke Peter (German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies (DZHW) & DIW Berlin); Daniela Simon Wiederhold (KU EichstŠtt-Ingolstadt, Ingolstadt School of Management & ifo Institute Munich) |
| Abstract: | Children with lower socioeconomic status (SES) tend to benefit more from early child care, but are substantially less likely to be enrolled. We study whether reducing behavioral barriers in the application process increases enrollment in child care for lower-SES children. In our RCT in Germany with highly subsidized child care (n > 600), treated families receive application information and personal assistance for applications. For lower-SES families, the treatment increases child care application rates by 21 pp and enrollment rates by 16 pp. Higher-SES families are not affected by the treatment. Thus, alleviating behavioral barriers closes half of the SES gap in early child care enrollment. |
| Keywords: | Child care, early childhood, behavioral barriers, information, educational inequality, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | I21 J13 J18 J24 C93 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:15&r= |
| By: | Olatunji A. Shobande (University of Aberdeen, UK); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | Africa is currently experiencing both financial and human development challenges. While several continents have advocated for financial development in order to acquire environmentally friendly machinery that produces less emissions and ensures long-term sustainability, Africa is still lagging behind the rest of the world. Similarly, Africa's human development has remained stagnant, posing a serious threat to climate change if not addressed. Building on the underpinnings of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis on the nexus between economic growth and environmental pollution, this study contributes to empirical research seeking to promote environmental sustainability as follows. First, it investigates the link between financial development, human capital development and climate change in East and Southern Africa. Second, six advanced panel techniquesare used, and they include: (1) cross-sectional dependency (CD) tests; (2) combined panel unit root tests; (3) combined panel cointegration tests; (4) panel VAR/VEC Granger causality tests and (5) combined variance decomposition analysis based on Cholesky and Generalised weights. Our finding shows that financial and human capital developments are important in reducing CO2 emissions and promoting environmental sustainability in East and Southern Africa. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development; Human Capital; East and Southern Africa; Climate Change |
| JEL: | G21 I21 I25 O55 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/042&r= |
| By: | Marie-Laure Allain (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Rémi Avignon (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Claire Chambolle (ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of purchasing alliances on product variety and profit sharing in a setting, in which capacity constrained retailers operate in separated markets and select their assortment in a set of differentiated products offered by heterogeneous suppliers (multinationals vs. local SMEs). Retailers may either have independent listing strategies or build a buying group, thereby committing to a joint listing strategy. This alliance may cover the whole product line (full buying group) or only the products of large suppliers (partial buying group). We show that a buying group may enhance the retailers' buyer power and reduce the overall product variety to the detriment of consumers. Our most striking result is that partial buying groups do not protect the small suppliers from being excluded or from bearing profit losses; they may even be more profitable for retailers than full buying groups. |
| Keywords: | Vertical relations,Purchasing alliance,Buying group,Buyer power,Vertical foreclosure |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03341448&r= |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Rexon T. Nting (London, UK) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we assess how the mobile phone can be leveraged upon to improve the role of governance in environmental sustainability in 44 Sub-Saharan African countries. The Generalised Method of Moments is used to establish policy thresholds. A threshold is a critical mass or level of mobile phone penetration at which the net effect of governance on Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions changes from positive to negative. Mobile phone penetration thresholds associated with negative conditional effects are: 36 (per 100 people) for political stability/no violence; 130 (per 100 people) for regulation quality; 146.66 (per 100 people) for government effectiveness; 65 (per 100 people) for corruption-control and 130 (per 100 people) for the rule of law. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed. The study provides thresholds of mobile phone penetration that are critical in complementing governance dynamics to reduce CO2 emissions. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions; ICT; Economic development; Africa |
| JEL: | C52 O38 O40 O55 P37 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/035&r= |
| By: | Nathan Lane (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | I study the impact of industrial policy on industrial development by considering a canonical intervention. Following a political crisis, South Korea dramatically altered its development strategy with a sector-specific industrial policy: the Heavy and Chemical Industry (HCI) drive, 1973-1979. With newly assembled data, I use the sharp introduction and withdrawal of industrial policies to study the impacts of industrial policy — during and after the intervention period. I show (1) HCI promoted the expansion and dynamic comparative advantage of directly targeted industries. (2) Using variation in exposure to policies through the input-output network, I show HCI indirectly benefited downstream users of targeted intermediates. (3) I find direct and indirect benefits of HCI persisted even after the end of HCI, following the 1979 assassination of the president. These effects include the eventual development of directly targeted exporters and their downstream counterparts. Together, my findings suggest that the temporary drive shifted Korean manufacturing into more advanced markets and created durable industrial change. These findings clarify lessons drawn from South Korea and the East Asian growth miracle. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy, East Asian miracle, economic history, industrial development, Heavy-Chemical Industry Drive |
| JEL: | L5 O14 O25 N6 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajr:sodwps:2021-10&r= |
| By: | Chimere O. Iheonu (Abuja, Nigeria); Shedrach A. Agbutun (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Chinedum J. Chiemela (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This study provides empirical evidence on the impact of militarization, governance, and democracy on human rights in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 2002 to 2018. The study employed the instrumental variable Fixed Effects model to account for simultaneity/reverse causality, and unobservable heterogeneity as well as the instrumental variable quantile regression with Fixed Effects to account for existing levels of human rights in SSA. Based on the Fixed Effects results, it is revealed that militarization significantly increases human rights violation in the region, while governance and democracy significantly improve human rights. Results from the quantile regression show that (1) the negative impact of militarization on human rights is observable across all quantiles, (2) the positive impact of the control of corruption on human rights is more pronounced in countries where the existing level of human rights is high, while political stability and rule of law exerts stronger impact on human rights in countries where the existing level of human rights is low, (3) the positive impact of democracy on human rights is stronger in countries where the existing level of human rights is high. Policy recommendations based on these findings are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Human Rights; Militarization; Governance; Democracy; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | C21 C23 K38 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/041&r= |
| By: | Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | Using data for the period 2000 to 2019, the aim of this paper is to: (i) profile and compare research publications in regions and continents worldwide namely Africa, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Northern America, Latin America, the Asiatic region, the Pacific region and the Middle East; (ii) assess factors associated with research productivity and (iii) verify if African countries are closing the deep gap of research production and by extension, detect factors on which to improve and boost the catch-up process. The empirical evidence is based on the Poisson regression model, quantile regression for counts data and panel negative binomial regression. The findings can be summarised as follows: (i) continuous and linear increasing trends in the production of knowledge are noted in developing regions specifically in Africa even if the contribution of the continent to global research is marginal; (ii) in countries with least production, ‘internet users’ is not significant but schooling modulates its effect on research production contrarily to countries in the upper part of the distribution and (iii) in Africa, if the number of schooling years increases by one, the number of documents or published works produced is expected to increase by a factor of 1.147. |
| Keywords: | Research productivity; economic development; count data |
| JEL: | F42 O10 O30 O38 O57 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/037&r= |
| By: | Ali Enami; Ugo Gentilini; Patricio Larroulet; Nora Lustig; Emma Monsalve; Siyu Quan; Jamele Rigolini |
| Abstract: | Using microsimulations this paper analyzes the poverty and tax implications of replacing current transfers and subsidies by a budget-neutral (no change in the fiscal deficit) universal basic income program (UBI) in Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa. We consider three UBI transfers with increasing levels of generosity and identify scenarios in which the poor are no worse off than in the baseline scenario of existing social transfers. We find that for poverty levels not to increase under a UBI reform, the level of spending must increase substantially with respect to the baseline. Accordingly, the required increase in tax burdens is high throughout. In our five countries and scenarios, the least increase in taxes required to avoid poverty to be higher than in the baseline is around 25% (Brazil and Chile). Even at this lower rate, political resistance and efficiency costs could limit the feasibility of a UBI reform. |
| Keywords: | Universal basic income, microsimulation, inequality, poverty, tax incidence |
| JEL: | H22 H31 H55 I32 D63 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:ceqwps:112&r= |
| By: | Jon D. Wisman |
| Abstract: | Understanding the role of ideology is of fundamental importance for understanding social dynamics since the rise of the state 5,500 years ago. Yet this importance has not received adequate attention from social scientists and historians. Even when addressed, it most often has suffered from imprecise meaning and a failure to clearly specify why it is effective. Following the usage by Marx, this article defines ideology as an instrument of exploitation which enables the stronger to persuade the weaker to support behavior and institutions that are counter to their interests. Exploitation exists because humans are biologically driven to compete for status which provides them with reproductive advantage. What ultimately drives competition among all species is the struggle to send one’s unique set of genes into posterity. The biological ancestors of all currently living beings did so successfully. This article surveys how this biologically driven struggle eventually led to weapons and social organization that enabled the stronger to subjugate and exploit the weaker. Ideology evolved as religion was transformed to justify this exploitation by depicting it as in accord with cosmic forces. Ideology provided a more efficient means of maintaining exploitation than violence. With the rise of capitalism, secular doctrines, and especially political economy and then economics, joined and eventually mostly replaced religion in serving as ideology justifying exploitation. |
| Keywords: | Ideology, exploitation, inequality, legitimation, religion |
| JEL: | B15 N40 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:2021-03&r= |
| By: | Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the joint effects of ICT diffusion (composed of access, usage and skills), and foreign direct investment (FDI) on inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study draws on data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, and the Global Consumption and Income Project for the period 1980–2019 for the analysis. The study provides evidence robust to several specifications from ordinary least squares and dynamic system GMM estimation techniques to show that: (1) FDI and ICT diffusion and corresponding components (ICT access, usage, skills) induce inclusive growth in SSA; (2) compared to its direct effect, FDI is remarkable in fostering shared growth in SSA in the presence of greater ICT diffusion, and (3) compared to ICT access and usage, ICT skills are more effective in driving inclusive growth in SSA. Overall FDI modulates ICT dynamics to engender positive synergy effects on inclusive growth. Policy recommendations are provided in line with the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement and the projected rise in FDI in SSA from 2022. |
| Keywords: | FDI; ICT Access; ICT Diffusion; ICT Skills; ICT Usage; Inclusive Growth; sub- Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | E23 F21 F30 L96 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/029&r= |
| By: | Dirk Bergemann (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Tibor Heumann (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Stephen Morris (Dept. of Economics, MIT); Constantine Sorokin (Glasgow University and Higher School of Economics); Eyal Winter (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem) |
| Abstract: | In digital advertising, a publisher selling impressions faces a trade-off in deciding how precisely to match advertisers with viewers. A more precise match generates efficiency gains that the publisher can hope to exploit. A coarser match will generate a thicker market and thus more competition. The publisher can control the precision of the match by controlling the amount of information that advertisers have about viewers. We characterize the optimal trade-off when impressions are sold by auction. The publisher pools premium matches for advertisers (when there will be less competition on average) but gives advertisers full information about lower quality matches. |
| Keywords: | Second Price Auction, Conflation, Targeted Advertising, Impressions, Two-Sided Private Information, Bayesian Persuasion, Information Design |
| JEL: | D44 D47 D83 D84 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2300&r= |
| By: | Fisayo Fagbemi (Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | The paper appraised the emanating effect of COVID-19 on sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Nigeria through the systematic illustration of the prevailing incidents. It was affirmed that the preoccupation with the COVID-19 cases caused many other critical socioeconomic issues (like education, infrastructure development, and employment) to suffer a state of negligence or be overlooked. Like other developing countries, Nigeria could become poorer, given the increased unemployment rate and the anticipated difficulty in servicing debt resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. Hence, festering challenges including poverty, limited access to health care, low education quality, poor road networks among others, could be further entrenched. These incidents could be detrimental to sustainable development goals (SDGs) 2030 agenda. The current crisis, therefore, poses a threat to Nigeria’s development prospects, as it may take more time to recover, especially in the post-COVID-19 era. Thus, it is critical to recognize the significance of securing strong institutional regulatory setup and resources (including financial and material resources) needed to facilitate sustainable change in the economy. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, economic crisis, sustainable development goals (SDGs), Nigeria |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/026&r= |
| By: | Zhengqing Gui (Wuhan University); Yangguang Huang (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Xiaojian Zhao (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | We study a retail financial market with naive investors who are unaware of possible financial fraud. In our model, firms strategically choose whether to offer normal or fraudulent products to possibly unaware investors. Having new firms in the market makes offering normal products less profitable and thus discourages firms from behaving honestly. In a leader-follower environment, an honest firm may sell a normal product to sophisticated investors, while a dishonest firm targets only naive investors. By disclosing information about financial fraud, the honest firm can steal market share from the dishonest firm, but doing so may induce the dishonest firm to deviate and compete for the normal-product market, which limits the honest firm’s incentive to disclose information. Policy instruments, such as increasing legal punishment, implementing public education programs, and lowering the interest rate ceiling, may also trigger the honest firm to strategically shroud information. As a consequence, these policies cannot ensure an improvement in investor welfare. |
| Keywords: | financial fraud, investor naivety, unawareness, shrouding |
| JEL: | D14 D83 G11 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2021-06&r= |
| By: | Matias Nunez (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); M. Remzi Sanver (LAMSADE - Laboratoire d'analyse et modélisation de systèmes pour l'aide à la décision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2020–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03092402&r= |
| By: | Penelope Buckley (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03335199&r= |
| By: | Ofori, Pamela Efua; Grechyna, Daryna |
| Abstract: | Despite the established link between oil rent fluctuations and remittances received, its plausible joint effect on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains unexplored. To fill this gap, first we determine whether natural resource rent (composed of oil rent, forest rent and natural gas rent) reduces economic growth in SSA. Second, we examine whether positive macroeconomic signals such as remittances mitigate the negative effect of oil rents on economic growth in a sample of 43 SSA countries spanning 1990-2017. We employ the pooled ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects, and generalized method of moments. The resulting empirical evidence established are; (1) There is a positive impact of forest rent on economic growth whilst oil rent and natural gas rent have a negative impact on economic growth. (2) There is a positive marginal and net effect on economic growth from the interaction between remittances and oil rent. Also, the unconditional effect of remittances on growth is positive. We further perform a threshold analysis to establish a critical ground that could also influence economic growth positively. This threshold is crucial because above these critical mass remittance inflows mitigate the negative incidence of oil rent on economic growth and below the threshold negative oil rent on growth is completely nullified. This is relevant for policy implications because policy makers are provided with actionable levels of remittances which are easily attainable in sampled countries. |
| Keywords: | Remittances, Natural resource rent, oil rent, Economic growth, Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| JEL: | F4 F43 O4 |
| Date: | 2021–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109696&r= |
| By: | Christine L. Dobridge; Rebecca Lester; Andrew Whitten |
| Abstract: | How does going public affect firms’ tax obligations and tax planning? Using a panel of U.S. corporate tax return data from 1994 to 2018, we compare tax payments for firms that completed an IPO with those that filed for an IPO but later withdrew and remained private. We find that in the years immediately following IPO completion, firms have a higher probability of paying taxes and pay more U.S. tax. The effects occur regardless of tax status in the pre-IPO period and are not explained by statutory limitations imposed on the use of pre-IPO losses. Higher income reported for financial reporting purposes, as well as lower interest deductions attributable to debt repayment, contribute to the increased tax payments. These increases are partially offset by higher tax deductions for post-IPO investment and employment spending. Furthermore, the IPO is associated with increased tax planning through foreign tax haven use. The evidence adds to the nascent literature examining corporate tax implications of the IPO decision. |
| Keywords: | Corporate tax; IPO; Investment; Tax haven |
| JEL: | G31 G32 H25 |
| Date: | 2021–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-58&r= |
| By: | Théophile Azomahou (AERC - African Economic Research Consortium); Njuguna Ndung'U (AERC - African Economic Research Consortium); Mahamady Ouedraogo (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Oil-dependent countries face a twin-shock: in addition to the COVID-19 outbreak, they are facing an oil price collapse. In this paper, we study the impact of this dual shock on the forecasted GDP growth in Africa using the COVID-19 outbreak as a natural experiment. We use the IMF World Economic Outlook's GDP growth forecasts before and after the outbreak. We find that COVID-19 related deaths result in -2.75 percentage points forecasted GDP growth loss in the all sample while oil-dependence induces -7.6 percentage points loss. We document that the joint shock entails higher forecasted growth loss in oil-dependent economies (-10.75 percentage points). Based on oil price forecasts and our empirical findings, we identify five recovery policies with high potential: social safety net policy, economic diversification, innovation and technological transformation, fiscal discipline, and climate-friendly recovery policy. |
| Keywords: | Africa,growth forecast,oil-dependence,COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03344118&r= |
| By: | Datta, Soumya (South Asian University, New Delhi); C. Saratchand (Satyawati College, University of Delhi) |
| Abstract: | We set up a macroeconomic epidemiological (SIR) model to evaluate the role of vaccination in the interactive dynamics of COVID-19 and the economy. We analytically examine the existence and local stability properties of the four steady states and find strong support for a locally stable interior equilibrium where the economy grows in the continued presence of the pandemic. We also find that it might be possible to attain a pandemic-free economic revival only if the rate of recovery from infection is faster than a threshold level. We examine, both analytically and numerically, the impact of various types of policy interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions involving restrictions on economic activities (like lockdowns and travel restrictions) as well as speeding up the rate of vaccination. We find that under reasonable parameter configurations, a combination of large-scale vaccination as well as non-pharmaceutical interventions are required to meet the twin objectives of controlling the pandemic and reviving the economy. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 ; health ; stability ; vaccination ; non pharmaceutical intervention |
| JEL: | E10 E61 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:21/352&r= |
| By: | Backhaus, Teresa; Breitmoser, Yves |
| Abstract: | Reanalyzing 12 experiments on the repeated prisoner's dilemma (PD), we robustly observe three distinct subject types: defectors, cautious cooperators and strong cooperators. The strategies used by these types are surprisingly stable across experiments and uncorrelated with treatment parameters, but their population shares are highly correlated with treatment parameters. As the discount factor increases, the shares of defectors decrease and the relative shares of strong cooperators increase. Structurally analyzing behavior, we next find that subjects have limited foresight and assign values to all states of the supergame, which relate to the original stage-game payoffs in a manner compatible with inequity aversion. This induces the structure of coordination games and approximately explains the strategies played using Schelling's focal points: after (c,c) subjects play according to the coordination game's cooperative equilibrium, after (d,d) they play according to its defective equilibrium, and after (c,d) or (d, c) they play according to its mixed equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | Repeated game,Behavior,Tit-for-tat,Mixed strategy,Memory,Belief-freeequilibrium,Laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | C72 C73 C92 D12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbeoc:spii2021303&r= |
| By: | Chien, Fengsheng; Ngo, Quang-Thanh; Hsu, Ching-Chi; Chau, Ka Yin; Iram, Robina |
| Abstract: | Due to their different abilities to improve financial growth and improve social development, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have been referred to as the economy’s backbone. Small- and medium-sized enterprises are crucial for both high- and low-income nations’ financial development. Customers grow more conscious of their purchase choices, preferences, and environmental consequences. The financial opportunities for SMEs in the United Arab Emirates to use green innovation methods to address potential obstacles for increasing green goods, processes, and management are examined in this paper; as a result, it is critical to reduce clean technology adoption constraints in small- and medium-sized businesses. To identify significant hurdles, sub-barriers, and ways to overcome impediments to green innovation in the United Arab Emirates, we apply an integrated decision process. Following a detailed literature analysis and the assistance of twelve experts, six primary obstacles, twenty-five sub-obstacles, and strategies to reduce the barriers were identified. Primary and sub-barriers were assessed using the FAHP. The (FTOPSIS) approach was used to rank the strategies. Five SMEs in the United Arab Emirates are putting the suggested integrated decision model to the test. “Financial investment levels 0.646 to 11 percent growth level,” according to the FAHP, are the most significant hurdles to SMEs adopting green practices. This research demonstrated a considerable beneficial association between SMEs and financial development and funding in the United Arab Emirates. According to this study, using research methodologies to provide green innovation in SMEs is the best strategy to overcome green innovation and adoption hurdles in small and medium firms and increasing their economics. |
| Keywords: | SMEs; Barriers; Green innovation; Financial; FAHP; Financial development; United Arab Emirates |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2021–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109668&r= |
| By: | Philippe Batifoulier (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Louise Braddock; Victor Duchesne (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Ariane Ghirardello (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); John Latsis |
| Abstract: | Patients suffering from "lifestyle" conditions are most often viewed as responsible for their illness, and so not considered to be a priority for healthcare resources. Instead, their treatment is financed on instrumental grounds: it is better to treat the condition now than to incur higher costs later of not doing so. An alternative register of justification at work in public healthcare policies is not motivated by instrumental considerations. Instead, it seeks to articulate an ethical case for prioritizing lifestyle conditions. Within this framework, we draw on the notion of vital need within the tradition of humanistic philosophy to argue that solidarity justifies the treatment of such conditions, exemplified here by obesity. We use the theoretical framework of economics of convention to present these two registers of justification at work in public healthcare policies. The importance of humanistic criticism prevents instrumental logic from being completely dominant. |
| Keywords: | health behavior,health care,health policy,legitimation,public health,self-responsibility |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03345323&r= |
| By: | Hugo d'Assenza-David (Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Date: | 2021–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03340458&r= |
| By: | Zammar Rachid (Laboratory of Applied Economics, Agdal FSJES, Mohammed V University); Omar Lamrani (Laboratory of Applied Economics, Agdal FSJES, Mohammed V University) |
| Abstract: | ENTERPRISE RESOURCE PLANNING has become a very important tool in the modernization process of small and medium-sized Moroccan companies, especially because of the MOUSSANADA program, which supports them in their modernization process through the implementation of an ENTERPRISE RESOURCE PLANNING tool in order to plan resources, reduce production costs and increase productivity. Indeed, ENTERPRISE RESOURCE PLANNING encompasses several applications and modules in order to be a complete and versatile tool. It is for this reason that we have tried to analyze the place of integrated management software packages in small and medium-sized Moroccan companies through a field study. This study is combined with a deductive reasoning which is translated by the confrontation of the theoretical framework and the formulated hypotheses. After the analysis of the questionnaire, we obtained a sample of 33 small or medium-sized companies meeting the above-mentioned criteria, with a workforce ranging from 10 to 150. The objective of this article is to show the impact of the benefits, risks, applications and modules provided by ERP systems on the willingness of managers to invest in them. |
| Abstract: | L'Enterprise Resource Planning est devenu un outil très important dans la démarche de la modernisation des petites et moyennes entreprises Marocaines surtout grâce au programme MOUSSANADA qui leur accompagne dans leur processus de modernisation via la mise en place de cet instrument afin de planifier les ressources, réduire les coûts de production et augmenter la productivité. En effet ce dernier englobe plusieurs applications et modules afin d'être un outil complet et polyvalent. C'est pour cette raison que nous avons essayé d'analyser la place qu'occupent les progiciels de gestion intégrés au sein des petites et moyennes entreprises Marocaines à travers une enquête terrain. Cette étude est combinée à un raisonnement déductif qui se traduit par la confrontation du cadre théorique et des hypothèses formulées. Après le dépouillement du questionnaire nous avons obtenu un échantillon de 33 petites et moyennes entreprises avec des effectifs allant de 10 à 150. Le présent article a pour objectif de montrer l'impact des avantages, des risques ainsi que des applications et modules fournis par les progiciels de gestion intégrés sur l'envie des dirigeants d'investir dans ces derniers. |
| Date: | 2021–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03340759&r= |
| By: | Virginie André (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UN - Université de Nantes - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes); Nathalie Bostel (LS2N - Laboratoire des Sciences du Numérique de Nantes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes - Université de Nantes - Faculté des Sciences et des Techniques - UN - Université de Nantes - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]) |
| Date: | 2021–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03341567&r= |
| By: | Christoph Görtz; Danny McGowan; Mallory Yeromonahos |
| Abstract: | We study how furlough affects household financial distress during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furlough increases the probability of late housing and bill payments by 30% and 9%, respectively. The effects exist for individuals who rent their home, but not mortgagees who can mitigate financial distress by reducing expenditure during furlough by deferring mortgage payments though the Mortgage Holiday Scheme. Furloughed individuals significantly reduce expenditure and spend their savings to offset furlough-induced income reductions. This creates wealth inequality but lowers the probability a furloughed worker experiences financial distress after returning to work. Estimates show an 80% government contribution to furloughed workers’ wages minimizes the incidence of financial distress at the lowest cost to taxpayers. |
| Keywords: | furlough, short-time work, Coronavirus job retention scheme, Covid-19 pandemic, financial distress, automatic stabilizers, inequality |
| JEL: | D14 D31 E24 G51 H24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9285&r= |
| By: | Denis Cogneau (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yannick Dupraz (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | What was the capacity of European colonial states? How fiscally extractive were they? What was their capacity to provide public goods and services? And did this change in the "developmentalist" era of colonialism? To answer these questions, we use archival sources to build a new dataset on colonial states of the second French colonial empire (1830-1962). French colonial states extracted a substantial amount of revenue, but they were under-administered because public expenditure entailed high wage costs. These costs remained a strong constraint in the "developmentalist" era of colonialism, despite a dramatic increase in fiscal capacity and large overseas subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Histoire economique,fiscalite,periode coloniale,analyse economique |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03105552&r= |
| By: | Kossi Messanh Agbekponou (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Angela Cheptea (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Karine Latouche (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The present paper investigates the link between the participation of French agri-food firms to retailer-driven value chains and their integration in global value chains (GVCs). We propose an empirical methodology based on the econometric estimation of firms' extensive trade margins with multivariate models. We combine firm-level data from the AMADEUS database, French customs and the exhaustive list of firms certified with the private International Featured Standard (IFS) over the period 2006-2011. Our results show that firms that participate to retailer-driven value chains (IFS-certified firms) are by 8.35% more likely to integrate GVCs, i.e. jointly import and export, than other firms in the sector. This premium is primarily driven by the higher probability to export of these firms. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains,Retailers,Private standards,Multivariate econometric models |
| Date: | 2021–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03346839&r= |
| By: | Amit Gandhi; Aviv Nevo |
| Abstract: | This is an invited chapter for the forthcoming Volume 4 of the Handbook of Industrial Organization. We present empirical models of demand and supply in differentiated products industries with an emphasis on the key ideas arising from the recent applied literature. We start with a discussion of the challenges in modeling and estimation of demand for differentiated products, and focus on discrete choice characteristics-based demand models that address these challenges while allowing enough flexibility to capture realistic substitution patterns. Our discussion emphasizes how empirical strategies can leverage different features of data depending on the sources of variation that are commonly found in applied work. Moving to the supply-side, we show how demand estimates combined with a pricing model, can be used to recover markups and marginal costs. We also show how the model of pricing can be tested. We discuss a baseline Bertrand-Nash model of competitive pricing, and expand it to cover a) coordinated pricing, b) wholesale relationships, and c) bargaining. We end the chapter with extensions of the demand model, including dynamic and continuous demand. |
| JEL: | C01 D12 D22 D43 L13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29257&r= |
| By: | Eric Reinhart (Harvard University [Cambridge]); Daniel L. Chen (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Mass incarceration is known to foster infectious disease outbreaks, amplification of infectious diseases in surrounding communities, and exacerbation of health disparities in disproportionately policed communities. To date, however, policy interventions intended to achieve epidemic mitigation in US communities have neglected to account for decarceration as a possible means of protecting public health and safety. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03344620&r= |
| By: | Morvarid Bagherzadeh; Makiko Shigemitsu |
| Abstract: | Turkey is exposed to multiple natural hazard-induced disasters (NHID) and has considerable experience in managing the associated risks. Drought, in particular, has had significant impacts on the country’s agricultural sector, and the frequency of droughts is expected to increase due to climate change. Existing governance and policy frameworks seek to ensure that the agricultural sector is prepared for, and able to respond to, adverse events as they occur. While these mechanisms contribute to improved resilience, further opportunities exist to strengthen policy processes, in particular by increasing farmer and private sector participation. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural risk management, Climate change, Insurance, Irrigation |
| JEL: | Q15 Q16 Q18 Q25 Q28 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:167-en&r= |
| By: | Schelkle, Waltraud |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; coronavirus; 810356 |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2021–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111448&r= |
| By: | Chien, Fengsheng; Ananzeh, Mohammed; Mirza, Farhan; Bakar, Abou; Vu, Hieu Minh; Ngo, Thanh Quang |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the nexus between green growth and carbon neutrality targets in the context of the USA while observing the role of ecological innovation, environmental taxes, and green energy. For this purpose, data were collected from 1970 to 2015 for all the variables of interest. This research utilized the quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) method due to its various benefits, such as depicting the causality patterns based on different quantiles for different variables like green growth, ecological innovation, environmental taxes, and renewable energy. The findings through the QARDL method showed that the error correction coefficient was significant and negative with the expected negative sign for the different quantiles. The findings showed a significant and negative impact of green growth, square of green growth, ecological innovation, and environmental taxes in determining the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the USA’s economy under the long-run estimation. Meanwhile, the outcome for the short-term estimation confirmed that the past and lagged values of CO2 emission were significantly and negatively linked with the current and lagged values of CO2 emission. On the other hand, it was found that green growth and square of green growth, ecological innovation, environmental taxes, and renewable energy played their vital role in reducing haze pollution like PM2.5. Besides, this research also covers the limitations and policy implications. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emission; Ecological innovation; Environmental pollution; Green growth; USA |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2021–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109664&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Without connectivity, there can be no digital transformation of economies and societies. With this in mind, the OECD Recommendation of the Council on Broadband Development was adopted in 2004. Since then, broadband markets, underlying technologies, and the policies in place to spur the development of broadband networks have undergone significant changes. This document summarises the outcome of an extensive questionnaire sent to delegates of OECD countries and stakeholder groups. The questionnaire aimed to gather information on the experience of OECD countries concerning broadband development in general, and more particularly their experience in implementing the 2004 Recommendation. The responses to the questionnaire were used to inform the review and revision of the 2004 Recommendation, which resulted in the adoption of the 2021 OECD Council Recommendation on Broadband Connectivity. |
| Date: | 2021–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:318-en&r= |
| By: | Fan Wang (University of Houston) |
| Abstract: | Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:append:19-448&r= |
| By: | Aeimit Lakdawala (Wake Forest University); Rajeswari Sengupta (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | We create new measures of monetary policy shocks for India using high-frequency derivatives data and study their transmission. These shocks capture two distinct dimensions of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy announcements. In addition to reacting to surprise changes (or non-changes) in the RBI's policy rate, financial markets also infer substantial information about the future path of the policy rate from RBI's communication. We analyze official statements and the corresponding media narrative on prominent RBI announcement dates to help understand how markets use RBI communication to update their expectations. Overall, bond and stock markets react strongly to these monetary shocks, but exhibit notable heterogeneity across governor regimes. Finally, we use the monetary shocks as external instruments to identify the impact on macroeconomic variables in a structural vector autoregression. We find some evidence of the conventional transmission of monetary policy to prices but not to output. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, Reserve Bank of India, event study, monetary transmission |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G10 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-021&r= |
| By: | Christophe Bontemps (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Douadia Bougherara (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Céline Nauges (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Even if there exists an extensive literature on the modeling of farmers' behavior under risk, actual measurements of the quantitative impact of risk aversion on input use are rare. In this article, we use simulations to quantify the impact of risk aversion on the optimal quantity of input and farmers' welfare when production risk depends on how much of the input is used. The assumptions made on the technology and form of farmers' risk preferences were chosen such that they are fairly representative of crop farming conditions in the USA and Western Europe. In our benchmark scenario featuring a traditional expected utility model, we find that less than 4% of the optimal pesticide expenditure is driven by risk aversion and that risk induces a decrease in welfare that varies from −1.5 to −3.0% for individuals with moderate to normal risk aversion. We find a stronger impact of risk aversion on quantities of input used when farmers' risk preferences are modeled under the cumulative prospect theory framework. When the reference point is set at the median or maximum profit, and for some levels of the parameters that describe behavior toward losses, the quantity of input used that is driven by risk preferences represents up to 19% of the pesticide expenditure. |
| Keywords: | Pesticides,Production risk,Risk preferences |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03342609&r= |
| By: | Affeldt, P.; Argentesi, E.; Filistrucchi, Lapo (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | two-sided markets; plateforme; multi-homing; media; advertising |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:1317bf39-d02e-4f61-a34f-e01f6efbefdd&r= |
| By: | Kyle Butts; John Gardner |
| Abstract: | Recent work has highlighted the difficulties of estimating difference-in-differences models when treatment timing occurs at different times for different units. This article introduces the R package did2s which implements the estimator introduced in Gardner (2021). The article provides an approachable review of the underlying econometric theory and introduces the syntax for the function did2s. Further, the package introduces a function, event_study, that provides a common syntax for all the modern event-study estimators and plot_event_study to plot the results of each estimator. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05913&r= |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Woo-Young Kang; Fabio Spagnolo; Nicola Spagnolo |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on stock market returns and their volatility in the case of the G20 countries. In contrast to the existing empirical literature, which typically focuses only on either Covid-19 deaths or lockdown policies, our analysis is based on a comprehensive dynamic panel model accounting for the effects of both the epidemiological situation and restrictive measures as well as of fiscal and monetary responses; moreover, instead of Covid-19 deaths it uses a far more sophisticated Covid-19 index based on a Balanced Worth (BW) methodology, and it also takes into account heterogeneity by providing additional estimates for the G7 and the remaining countries (non-G7) separately. We find that the stock markets of the G7 are affected negatively by government restrictions more than the Covid-19 pandemic itself. By contrast, in the non-G7 countries both variables have a negative impact. Further, lockdowns during periods with particularly severe Covid-19 conditions decrease returns in the non-G7 countries whilst increase volatility in the G7 ones. Fiscal and monetary policy (the latter measured by the shadow short rate) have positive and negative effects, respectively, on the stock markets of the G7 countries but not of non-G7 ones. In brief, our evidence suggests that restrictions and other policy measures play a more important role in the G7 countries whilst the Covid-19 pandemic itself is a key determinant in the case the non-G7 stock markets. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 pandemic, stringency index, Covid-19 index, fiscal policy, shadow rates, stock markets |
| JEL: | C33 G15 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9299&r= |
| By: | Syeda Anam Fatima Rizvi (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Pakistan being a lower-middle-income country, is always being able to allocate less than or around 2% of GDP to health due to which Out-of-Pocket payments have a very large share in Pakistan's total health financing. Hence, when this OOP health expenditure exceeds a defined threshold of the Household's Nonfood consumption expenditure then the Household faces financial catastrophe. This research sheds light on the features that can make households in Pakistan more vulnerable to catastrophic health expenses and fills the gap by analyzing the determinants of Catastrophic health expenditures of Pakistan and discusses the incidence and intensity of these Catastrophic health expenditures. We have used survey data of Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) of Pakistan for the year 2015-2016 for 24238 households. It contains household information including education, income, consumption expenditure, and health expenditures. As anticipated, some determining factors significantly increase the risk of facing catastrophic health expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Catastrophic Health Expenditure,Out-of-Pocket Payments,Non-food consumption expenditure |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03341700&r= |
| By: | Fabien Gensbittel (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marcin Peski (University of Toronto); Jérôme Renault (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We define the distance between two information structures as the largest possible difference in value across all zero-sum games. We provide a tractable characterization of distance and use it to discuss the relation between the value of information in games versus single-agent problems, the value of additional information, informational substitutes, complements, or joint information. The convergence to a countable information structure under value-based distance is equivalent to the weak convergence of belief hierarchies, implying, among other things, that for zero-sum games, approximate knowledge is equivalent to common knowledge. At the same time, the space of information structures under the value-based distance is large: there exists a sequence of information structures where players acquire increasingly more information, and ε > 0 such that any two elements of the sequence have distance of at least ε. This result answers by the negative the second (and last unsolved) of the three problems posed by J.F. Mertens in his paper Repeated Games , ICM 1986. |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01869139&r= |
| By: | Patrick Fève (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Pablo Garcia Sanchez (Unknown); Alban Moura (Unknown); Olivier Pierrard (Unknown) |
| Abstract: | We augment a simple Real Business Cycle model with financial intermediaries that may default on their liabilities and a financial friction generating social costs of default. We derive a closed-form solution for the general equilibrium of the economy, providing analytical results. Endogenous default generates a negative skew for aggregate variables and a positive skew for credit spreads, as documented in the empirical literature. Larger financial frictions strengthen asymmetry, which amplifies the welfare cost of fluctuations. Macro-prudential regulation alleviates both the cost of fluctuations and business-cycle asymmetry, at the expense of a steady-state distortion. Finally, we prove analytically the existence of an optimal level of regulation, which increases with the size of the financial friction. |
| Keywords: | Real Business Cycle model,Default,Financial frictions,Asymmetry,Optimal regulation |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03346173&r= |
| By: | Stephanie L. Chan (Xiamen University) |
| Abstract: | When there is strategic complementarity and all agents have access to public information, but only a subset of them has access to private information, strategic complementarity within the subset of privately-informed agents enhances the focal power of public information. This results to an expected social welfare function that is convex in the precision of both private and public information. The welfare gain from increasing the precision of the public information always exceeds the welfare loss from the underutilization of private information by a subset of agents. The results support the use of public information campaigns to change agent behavior regarding risky health behavior, public health crises and social injustices. The findings are robust to several extensions such as biased perceptions about public signals and costly acquisition of private information. |
| Keywords: | coordination, information asymmetry, private information, public information, strategic complementarity, welfare |
| JEL: | C70 D80 D82 D83 D84 |
| Date: | 2021–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002593&r= |
| By: | Mello, M.; Moscelli, G. |
| Abstract: | In September 2020, a national-level constitutional referendum held alongside local administrative elections took place in Italy, resulting in a 22% average increase in the referendum turnout rate where more than one poll occurred. We exploit this quasi-experimental setting to estimate the e ect of voters' turnout on the spread of COVID-19, by employing an event-study design with a two-stage Control Function strategy. The estimated elasticities show that post-poll new COVID infections increased by an average of 1.1% for each additional percentage point of turnout. The findings suggest that national-level polls have the possibility to amplify nation-wide waves of contagion if held during peak periods of an epidemic. A cost-benefit simulation based on our estimates and real political events shows that averting an early general election in Spring 2021 has spared Italy up to about 362 million euros in additional hospital care costs and 22,900 deaths from COVID. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; voting; civic capital; Control Function; |
| JEL: | C23 D72 H51 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:21/17&r= |
| By: | Olga Bilyk; Ken Chow; Yang Xu |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt. |
| Keywords: | Credit and credit aggregates; Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stability; Housing |
| JEL: | C25 D14 G51 R21 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-22&r= |
| By: | Anna Gerke (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School); Geoff Dickson; Hagen Wäsche |
| Abstract: | Research question: This study contributes to our understanding of how network structures influence cluster governance and consequently cluster outcomes. We investigate the relational structure of cross-sectoral sport clusters and how these influence network governance. Research methods: We employed a mixed methods approach, combining qualitative research data and social network analysis (SNA). Forty-nine interviews were conducted with employees from the surfing clusters in Aquitaine (France) and Torquay (Australia). The interview transcripts were subjected to two rounds of coding prior to SNA on an aggregated actor level. Results and findings: Findings from both clusters show the core is comprised of five actor types, while five other actor types are peripheral. The French case is a Network Administrative Organisation-governed Network while the Australian case is a Leading Group-governed Network. Implications: This article contributes to knowledge on network governance, more specifically on network governance in sport clusters. We extend existing theory on network governance by suggesting a fourth, intermediate mode of network governance, the leading group-governed network. Furthermore, our research provides insights for sport clusters, an under-researched context in interorganisational sport networks. |
| Keywords: | network governance,interorganisational,sport cluster,mixed methods,network analysis |
| Date: | 2021–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03345370&r= |
| By: | David Bardey (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UNIANDES - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota]); Luigi Siciliani (Unknown) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of competition in the nursing homes sector with a two-sided market approach. More precisely, we investigate the distributional implications across the three key actors involved (residents, nurses and nursing homes) that arise from the two-sidedness of the market. Within a Hotelling set up, nursing homes compete for residents and for nurses, who provide quality to residents, by setting residents price and nurses wage. Nurses are assumed altruistic and therefore motivated to provide quality. The market is two-sided because: i) a higher number of residents affects nurses workload, which affects their willingness to provide labour supply; and ii) a higher number of nurses affects residents quality through a better matching process and by relaxing nurses time constraints. Our key findings are that i) the two-sidedness of the market leads to higher wages for nurses, which makes the nurses better off; ii) this is then passed to residents in the form of higher prices, which makes residents worse off; iii) nursing homes profits are instead unaffected. In contrast, when nurses wages are regulated, the two-sidedness of the market implies a transfer between residents and nursing homes. When residents price are regulated, it implies a transfer between nurses and nursing homes. These results are robust to institutional settings which employ pay-for-performance schemes (that reward either nursing homes or nurses): the two-sidedness of the market is strengthened and residents are still worse off. |
| Keywords: | Nursing homes,Competition,Two-sided markets,Distribution |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03340880&r= |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin; Ivanov, Bozhidar |
| Abstract: | The issue of utilization of sludge from wastewater treatment in agriculture is an important socio-economic and environmental problem in the European Union and Bulgaria. Its significance is determined by the fact that the amount of sludge formed is constantly growing, as the annual amount of sludge produced in Europe is 8.7 million dry matter, and in Bulgaria reaches 53 thousand tons of dry matter. One of the main ways to utilize sludge from wastewater treatment is its use as fertilizer in agriculture. It is becoming a topical issue along with the growing interest into the effective “transformation of wastes into products” and their inclusion in supply chains and circular economy. In other countries, there are numerous studies on the effects, factors and efficiencies of sludge use in agriculture. Despite their relevance, in-depth studies of the diverse effects and critical factors of sludge utilization in Bulgarian agriculture are at an early stage. This paper presents the results of the first part of a large-scale study aimed at determining the socio-economic effects of sludge utilization in Bulgarian agriculture. First, an approach is presented to assess the multilateral effects, efficiencies and factors of sludge utilization in agriculture. Then the various factors stimulating and limiting the utilization of sludge in Bulgarian farms are identified. The results of a case study of a holding using sludge as fertilizer are then presented. Based on a qualitative analysis of regulations and institutional structure, and surveys with managers and experts of urban wastewater treatment plants, and farmers using and not-using sludge, the institutional, political, organizational, personal, educational, informational, social, economic, and environmental factors influencing the utilization of sludge in agriculture in two regions of the country (Sofia and Burgas) are identified. Impact factors are generally divided into two types: factors influencing the behavior of agents, and factors determining the type and extent of the effects of sludge use in agriculture. Research of this type is to continue and deepen to establish the economic, sectoral and regional specificities on the basis of more representative information from all participants and interested parties in the effective utilization of sludge in the country. |
| Keywords: | sludge, use, agriculture, factors, efficiency, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | Q1 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q18 Q2 Q20 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109783&r= |
| By: | Lloyd, Simon (Bank of England); Manuel, Ed (Bank of England); Panchev, Konstantin (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of domestic GDP growth. Within a quantile regression setup, we propose a method to parsimoniously account for foreign vulnerabilities using bilateral-exposure weights when assessing downside macroeconomic risks. Using a panel data set of advanced economies, we show that tighter foreign financial conditions and faster foreign credit-to-GDP growth are associated with a more severe left tail of domestic GDP growth, even when controlling for domestic indicators. The inclusion of foreign indicators significantly improves estimates of ‘GDP-at-Risk’, a summary measure of downside risks. In turn, this yields time-varying estimates of higher GDP growth moments that are interpretable and provide advanced warnings of crisis episodes. Decomposing historical estimates of GDP-at-Risk into domestic and foreign sources, we show that foreign shocks are a key driver of domestic macroeconomic tail risks. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability; GDP-at-Risk; international spillovers; local projections; quantile regression; tail risk |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F30 F41 F44 G01 |
| Date: | 2021–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0940&r= |
| By: | Khady Diallo (Université Alioune Diop de Bambey - Université Alioune Diop de Bambey); Mohamed Mbengue (Université Gaston Bergé (Saint-Louis, Sénégal)) |
| Abstract: | The capital structure of a company is not the result of chance; it is in principle the result of a decision to integrate a whole set of factors. Thus, in order to understand the diversity of debt behavior of companies listed on the BRVM, several factors must be taken into consideration. The main objective of this article is to verify the factors that can influence the financial structure of BRVM-listed firms and to analyze their influence. Our study focuses on a sample of 28 BRVM-listed firms over a period of 11 years (2009 to 2019), using panel data. Following an econometric study involving the methods of generalized least squares (fixed effect) and generalized method of moments (one-step), we tested the influence of traditional firm-related determinants and corporate governance determinants on leverage. The results reveal that most of the determinants explain the leverage behavior of firms listed on the BRVM. They show that the variables size, tangibility, cost of financing, tax savings not related to debt is significant and positively influence the level of debt, these results are explained by the trade-off theory. Unlike the variable profitability, the size of the board of directors which are significant and influence negatively the level of debt. These results confirm the predictions of the hierarchical preference theory. However, the variable growth opportunity, liquidity and power separation are not significant, i.e. they do not explain the debt behavior of our study sample. The results obtained from this research will help explain the financing policy of firms listed on the BRVM. In addition, they will be used by the managers of the companies to find some answers to their decisions concerning the policy of indebtedness. |
| Keywords: | Capital Structure,Traditional Determinants,Corporate Governance Determinants. JEL Classification : G30,G32 Paper type : Empirical research |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03336082&r= |
| By: | Antoine Bonleu (CEREQ - Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications - ministère de l'Emploi, cohésion sociale et logement - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Olivier Joseph (CEREQ - Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications - ministère de l'Emploi, cohésion sociale et logement - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Emmanuel Sulzer (CEREQ - Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications - ministère de l'Emploi, cohésion sociale et logement - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Marie-Hélène Toutin (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEREQ - Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications - ministère de l'Emploi, cohésion sociale et logement - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche) |
| Abstract: | Du CAP aux écoles d'ingénieurs, le BTP propose différents parcours de formations aux jeunes souhaitant s'orienter vers ses métiers. S'il attire de nombreux apprentis, le secteur ne parvient cependant pas suffisamment à les garder tout au long de leur apprentissage, ni à les stabiliser dans ses emplois. L'évolution des métiers liée aux transitions écologique et numérique sera-t-elle l'occasion de renouveler l'attractivité de la filière auprès des jeunes ? Une étude du Céreq auprès des professionnels du secteur apporte de premiers éléments de réponse. |
| Keywords: | Apprentissage,Evolution des qualifications,Métier du BTP |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02524438&r= |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin; Ivanov, Bozhidar |
| Abstract: | The issue of utilization of sludge from wastewater treatment is an important socio-economic and environmental problem in Bulgaria and the European Union. One of the main ways to utilize sludge from wastewater treatment is its use as fertilizer in agriculture. In Bulgaria, in-depth studies of the diverse effects and critical factors of sludge utilization in agriculture are at an early stage. This paper is a part of a large-scale project aimed at determining the socio-economic effects of sludge utilization in Bulgarian agriculture. First, an approach is presented to assess the multilateral effects, efficiencies and factors of sludge utilization in agriculture. Then the various factors stimulating and limiting the utilization of sludge in Bulgarian farms are identified. The results of a case study of a farm using sludge as fertilizer are then presented. Finally, an institutional analysis of the sludge use system in Bulgarian agriculture is made. |
| Keywords: | sludge, wastewaters treatment, agricultural use, effects, factors, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | Q1 Q12 Q13 Q15 Q16 Q18 Q2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109723&r= |
| By: | Camara K. Obeng (University of Cape Coast, Ghana); Peter Y. Mwinlaaru (University of Cape Coast, Ghana); Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Global value chain (GVC) participation has been identified as one of the means by which developing countries can attain inclusive growth yet little attention has been paid to it in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Motivated by the dearth of studies on SSA, we investigate the effect of GVC participation on inclusive growth for 19 SSA countries for the period 1991 to 2017, using the system GMM estimator. The results show that GVC participation drives inclusive growth through employment creation. We find that though SSA’s foreign value addition is less than its domestic value addition, the former’s impact on inclusive growth is higher than that of the latter. We recommend that policymakers support downstream industries to acquire technologies while incentivizing and attracting upstream industries into their countries. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chain, Inclusive Growth, Domestic Value Added, Foreign Value Added, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F43 F6 O4 Q55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/032&r= |
| By: | Sandra Bertezene; David Vallat (Université de Lyon) |
| Abstract: | Dans son discours télévisé du 16 mars 2020, le président de la République a déclaré : « Nous sommes en guerre, en guerre sanitaire certes. Nous ne luttons ni contre une armée ni contre une autre nation, mais l'ennemi est là, invisible, insaisissable, et qui progresse ». Bien entendu le discours présidentiel est dicté par la volonté de faire front commun ; toutefois ce discours est révélateur du tropisme cartésien : la volonté de simplifier les problèmes. |
| Keywords: | Edgar Morin,épistémologie,incertitude,Descartes |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03337188&r= |
| By: | Zhijun Chen (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Price squeezes have been commonly viewed as an exclusionary abuse under the argument of “constructive refusal to deal†, however, such an argument has been challenged by the courts and legal scholars. This paper proposes an exploitative rationale for price squeezes. A vertically integrated dominant firm can exploit efficiency gains from a downstream competitor and price squeezing is a necessary condition for such exploitation. Price squeezing forces the competitor to produce at a lower marginal cost than the dominant firm so that the dominant firm can earn more than the monopoly profit by extracting part of efficiency gains from the rival. Exploitation through price squeezing reduces the rival’s profit unfairly and distorts the production efficiency without benefiting consumers. Prohibiting price squeezes benefits the competitor and improves production efficiency without harming consumers. This paper lays a solid economic foundation for treating price squeeze cases and contributes to reconciling the diverging approach adopted by the courts in the United States and the European Union in recent price squeeze cases. |
| Keywords: | Price Squeeze, Margin Squeeze, Vertical Integration |
| JEL: | D42 L42 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2021-05&r= |
| By: | Vincent Geloso (Department of Economics, George Mason University); Linan Peng (Department of Economics and Management, DePauw University) |
| Abstract: | After the Civil War, the Democratic party carried an important electoral penalty from being associated with the war. To deal with this penalty, the party took increasingly anti-immigration positions to compete with Republicans. This led some Republican strongholds such as California to become competitive and also forced Republicans to embrace stricter immigration proposals. In this paper, we argue that adopting anti-immigration and raising awareness against immigration made California increasingly competitive in electoral terms. This electoral competitiveness can serve to explain the genesis of the 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Chinese Exclusion Act, Anti-Chinese Movement, Political Economy |
| JEL: | J15 N31 H59 |
| Date: | 2021–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dew:wpaper:2021-02&r= |
| By: | Margherita Comola; Marcel Fafchamps |
| Abstract: | We conduct a laboratory experiment to study a decentralized market where goods are differentiated and evaluations are private. We implement different semi-structured bargaining protocols based on deferred acceptance, and we compare their performance to the benchmark scenario of a sealed-bid auction. We show that bargaining dramatically improves efficiency, mainly to the benefit of players rather than the silent auctioneer. A protocol of unconstrained simultaneous bargaining performs best, doubling the proportion of deals relative to the benchmark. This is because participants seek to reveal information through a gradual bidding-up strategy that favors bargaining environments. Aggregate efficiency nonetheless suffers from the fact that buyers bargain harder than sellers, and that some players over-bargain to appropriate a larger share of the unknown surplus. |
| JEL: | C78 C91 D47 D82 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29265&r= |
| By: | Antoine Bonleu (CEREQ - Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications - ministère de l'Emploi, cohésion sociale et logement - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Olivier Joseph (CEREQ - Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications - ministère de l'Emploi, cohésion sociale et logement - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Emmanuel Sulzer (CEREQ - Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications - ministère de l'Emploi, cohésion sociale et logement - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Marie-Hélène Toutin (CEREQ - Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications - ministère de l'Emploi, cohésion sociale et logement - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche, CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | From secondary-level vocational qualifications (CAP ) to the elite engineering schools, the construction and civil engineering (CCE) sector offers a range of different training pathways for young people wishing to qualify in one of the sector's occupations. While it attracts large number of apprentices, it does not manage to retain enough of them throughout the apprenticeship period or to settle them in stable employment. Will the evolution of CCE occupations linked to the environmental and digital transitions be an opportunity to make the sector attractive again to young people? A study conducted by Céreq among professionals in the sector provides some preliminary answers. |
| Keywords: | Construction Industry,Forward-looking of job management,Manpower management,School-to-work transition,Technical and vocational education,Occupation in the public work industry,Trend in qualifications |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02975451&r= |
| By: | Jean-Marie Grether; Benjamin Tissot-Daguette |
| Abstract: | Using novel data on value added in Switzerland we propose to use a growth rate decomposition technique, in the spirit of shift-share analysis, to analyze the patterns of regional competitiveness over the 2011-2015 period. The growth differential of a region (or canton) depends on four terms, three structural effects and one competitive effect. The competitive effect turns out to be the dominant force at a high level of aggregation. An interesting pattern of structural effects unveils when working at a lower level of aggregation, allowing for identification of the leaders and laggers across regions and sectors. |
| Keywords: | firm-level, productivity, shift-share, structural and competitive effects, Switzerland. |
| JEL: | R11 R32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:21-10&r= |
| By: | Jentsch, Carsten; Mammen, Enno; Müller, Henrik; Rieger, Jonas; Schötz, Christof |
| Abstract: | Text mining is an active field of statistical research. In this paper we use two methods from text mining: the Poisson Reduced Rank Model (PRR, see Jentsch et al. 2020; Jentsch et al. 2021) and the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model (LDA, see Blei et al. 2003) for the statistical analysis of party manifesto texts from Germany. For the nine federal elections in Germany from 1990 to 2021, we analyze party manifestos that have been written by the parties to present their political positions and goals for the next legislative period of the German federal parliament (Bundestag). We use the models to quantify distances in the language of the manifestos and in the weight of importance the parties attribute to several political topics. The statistical analysis is purely data driven. No outside information, e.g., on the position of the parties, on the meaning of words, or on currently hot political topics, is used in fitting the statistical models. Outside information is only used when we interpret the statistical results. |
| Keywords: | Poisson reduced-rank model,Latent Dirichlet Allocation,CDU,CSU,Union,SPD,Grüne,FDP,Linke,Kenia,Jamaica,Ampel,Deutschland,R2G,coalition |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:docmaw:8&r= |
| By: | Affeldt, P.; Argentesi, E.; Filistrucchi, Lapo (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:1317bf39-d02e-4f61-a34f-e01f6efbefdd&r= |
| By: | Coskun, Yener; Akinsomi, Omokolade; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Yaya, OlaOIuwa S. |
| Abstract: | We examine stock market responses during the COVID-19 pandemic period using fractional integration techniques by considering the data spanning from August 2nd 2019 to July 9th 2020. The evidence suggests that stock markets generally follow a synchronized movement before and during the stages of the pandemic’s shocks. We find that, while mean reversion significantly declines, the degree of persistence and dependence has been increased in the majority of the stock market indices- in the full sample analysis. This outcome implies increasing integration and possibly declining benefits of diversification for the global stock portfolio management. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus; stock markets; fractional integration; long memory; mean reversion |
| JEL: | C12 C22 F31 |
| Date: | 2021–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109827&r= |
| By: | Kei Kawai; Ken Onishi; Kosuke Uetake |
| Abstract: | We study how signaling affects equilibrium outcomes and welfare in an online credit market using detailed data on loan characteristics and borrower repayment. We build and estimate an equilibrium model in which a borrower may signal her default risk through the reserve interest rate. Comparing a market with and without signaling relative to the benchmark with no asymmetric information, we find that adverse selection destroys as much as 34% of total surplus, up to 78% of which can be restored with signaling. We also estimate backward-bending supply curves for some markets, consistent with the prediction of Stiglitz & Weiss (1981). |
| JEL: | D82 G21 L15 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29268&r= |
| By: | Cardona Trujillo, Harold; Peña Rojas, Estefany |
| Abstract: | RESUMEN: En todos los territorios, la inversión pública aparece como un factor clave y, en varios casos, se le identifica con capacidad de empeorar o aliviar las Restricciones Operativas al Crecimiento (ROC), la identificación de factores económicos, institucionales y de economía política, permiten formular estrategias para superar dichas restricciones y promover un crecimiento sostenible y con inclusión social de las regiones de Antioquia y Eje Cafetero. La metodología de diagnóstico del crecimiento económico parte del enfoque de Restricciones Operativas al Crecimiento «ROC», el cual se centra en determinar cuáles factores son los que limitan el crecimiento, con el supuesto que el principal determinante para el desarrollo económico es la inversión pública y privada, superando las limitaciones de las metodologías tradicionalmente usadas como las regresiones de corte transversal por países, la contabilidad del crecimiento o la evaluación comparativa de la competitividad de los países. Estos presentan errores como la dificultad de determinar si el problema es del lado de la demanda o de la oferta, lo que no lleva a la toma de decisiones de política económica efectivas, ni priorizadas. Con la adaptación del enfoque ROC a nivel regional, se analizó cómo se construyen históricamente los accesos a los recursos de financiamiento, capital humano, infraestructura y otros factores importantes para el crecimiento (o la falta del mismo) en la región de Antioquia y Eje Cafetero y de cuál es la importancia de estos accesos en el desempeño económico reciente. ABSTRACT: In all territories, public investment appears as a key factor and, in several cases, is identified as having the capacity to worsen or alleviate Operational Restrictions to Growth (OCR). The identification of economic, institutional and political economy factors allows the formulation of strategies to overcome these restrictions and promote sustainable growth with social inclusion of the regions of Antioquia and Eje Cafetero. The methodology for the diagnosis of economic growth is based on the "ROC" Operational Restrictions to Growth approach, which focuses on determining the factors that limit growth, with the assumption that the main determinant for economic development is public and private investment, overcoming the limitations of traditionally used methodologies such as cross-sectional regressions by country, growth accounting, or comparative evaluation of countries' competitiveness. These present errors such as the difficulty of determining whether the problem is on the demand or supply side, which does not lead to effective or prioritized economic policy decisions. With the adaptation of the ROC approach at the regional level, we analyzed how access to financing resources, human capital, infrastructure and other important factors for growth (or the lack thereof) are historically constructed in the region of Antioquia and Eje Cafetero and what is the importance of these accesses in recent economic performance. |
| Keywords: | Desarrollo, Restricciones Operativas al Crecimiento |
| JEL: | O11 O23 O47 R11 |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:019616&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The promotion of widespread, affordable, and high-quality broadband is a prerequisite for the digital transformation of economies and societies. Foreseeing the role of broadband as an accelerator of economic, social and cultural development, the OECD adopted the Council Recommendation on Broadband Development in 2004. Since then, important developments have taken place in broadband technologies and markets. As part of the review of the 2004 Recommendation undertaken from 2018 to 2020 and resulting in the adoption of the revised 2021 OECD Council Recommendation on Broadband Connectivity, this report examines the evolution of broadband technologies, policies and regulation to foster broadband developments since 2004 as well as the benefits of, and challenges to, accelerating these developments to further enable digital transformation and inclusive growth. |
| Date: | 2021–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:317-en&r= |
| By: | Greppmair, Stefan; Jank, Stephan; Smajlbegovic, Esad |
| Abstract: | Using the exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, we study how informed market participants evaluate fiscal space. Short-selling activity shifted upon the onset of the pandemic towards companies with low financial flexibility only in countries with limited fiscal space. Among these companies, short sellers targeted especially those that generate their revenue mainly in the domestic market. These short sellers entered their positions before the market crash, generating thereby a significant abnormal return. These findings support the notion that short sellers bet on the inability of governments with budgetary constraints to provide sufficient stimulus to their economy in times of crises. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic,short selling,fiscal space,institutional investors |
| JEL: | G14 G23 H30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:292021&r= |
| By: | Murat Guray Kirdar (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University); Ismet Koc (Institute of Population Studies, Hacettepe University); Meltem Dayıoglu (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | Although school integration of the children of economic migrants in developed countries is well-studied in the literature, little evidence based on large scale representative data exists on the school integration of refugee children—many of whom live in low- or middle-income countries. This study focuses on Syrian refugee children in Turkey and examines the underlying causes of the native-refugee differences in school enrollment. We also analyze employment and marriage outcomes, as they are potentially jointly determined with schooling. For this purpose, we use the 2018 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey, which includes a representative sample of Syrian refugee households. We find that once a rich set of socioeconomic variables are accounted for, the native-refugee gap in school enrollment drops by half for boys and two-thirds for girls, but the gap persists for both genders. However, once we restrict the sample to refugees who arrive in Turkey at or before age 8 and account for the socioeconomic differences, the native-refugee gap completely vanishes both for boys and girls. In one outcome—in never attending school—the native-refugee gap persists even for children who arrive before age 8. Data for Syrians from the pre-war period suggest that this might be an “ethnic capital” that they bring with them from Syria. Finally, we find that the timing of boys’ school drop-out coincides with their entry into the labor market, whereas girls’ drop-out mostly takes place earlier than their marriage. |
| Keywords: | refugees; education; school enrollment; integration; child labor; marriage; Turkey. |
| JEL: | I21 I28 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2116&r= |
| By: | Philippe Michel; Isabelle Dadon; Julie Haesebaert; David Vallat (Université de Lyon); Sandra Bertezene; Christophe Pascal; Jean-Baptiste Capgras |
| Keywords: | sars-cov-2,covid19,incertitude,risque |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03337218&r= |
| By: | Taguchi, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to examine the dynamic process of participation in global value chains (GVCs) along with development stages in emerging East Asian economies by using the GVC indexes and the UNCTAD-Eora Global Value Chain Database. The main research focus of this study is to investigate a turning point of the GVC position from a downstream-driven participation to an upstream-driven one, which reflects an industrial upgrading from a buyer position for industrial inputs to a supplier position for them. The empirical estimation could verify the U-shaped curve in the combination between the GVC position index and per capita GDP, and identify a turning point of the GVC position in the reasonable range of per capita GDP. The estimation result also showed variability of the turning points in per capita GDP among the sectors: 3,668 US dollars in total industry, 6,088 US dollars in manufacturing sector, and 9,510 US dollars in machinery industry. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains (GVCs), Turning point, Emerging East Asian economies, GVC position index, U-shaped curve |
| JEL: | F12 F14 O53 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109795&r= |
| By: | Bergantiños, Gustavo; Moreno-Ternero, Juan D. |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic forced the partial or total cancellation of most sports competitions worldwide. Sports organizations crucially rely on revenues raised from broadcasting. How should the allocation of these revenues be modified when sports leagues are cancelled? We aim to answer that question in this paper by means of the axiomatic approach. |
| Keywords: | C71, D63, Z20 |
| JEL: | C71 |
| Date: | 2021–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109736&r= |
| By: | Bruno, Randolph L.; Crescenzi, Riccardo; Estrin, Saul; Petralia, Sergio |
| Abstract: | We characterise the knowledge production process whereby the inventive capabilities of the firm generate innovation output in highly inventive multinational enterprises (MNEs). We explore the sensitivity of this relationship to the strength of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection across the MNEs R&D subsidiaries. We argue that MNE innovative performance will be enhanced when the firm’s R&D activities are based in locations where IPR protection is stronger. Moreover, when considering the internal geography of the MNEs R&D activities, innovation performance depends on the distance between the home and host country IPR regime. Thus, innovation performance is worse as the difference between home and host IPR regimes increases. Finally, we explore asymmetries in this relationship, in particular that the deterioration is more marked when MNEs locate their R&D activities in host economies with IPR protection significantly less strict than in their home country. We test these ideas using a unique new dataset about the most innovative MNEs in the world, an unbalanced panel of around 900 MNEs observed for the period 2004 to 2013 and find strong support for all our hypotheses. |
| Keywords: | multinationals; innovation; IPR protection; institutional distance; patents; inventive capabilities; 639633-MASSIVE-ERC-2014-STG; 822781-GROWINPRO; Internal OA fund |
| JEL: | R14 J01 L81 |
| Date: | 2021–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110441&r= |
| By: | Nazym Azimbayev; Yerkin Kitapbayev |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study a pricing problem of the multiple reset put option, which allows the holder to reset several times a current strike price to obtain an at-the-money European put option. We formulate the pricing problem as a multiple optimal stopping problem, then reduce it to a sequence of single optimal stopping problems and study the associated free-boundary problems. We solve this sequence of problems by induction in the number of remaining reset rights and exploit probabilistic arguments such as local time-space calculus on curves. As a result, we characterize each optimal reset boundary as the unique solution to a nonlinear integral equation and derive the reset premium representations for the option prices. We propose that the multiple reset options can be used as cryptocurrency derivatives and an attractive alternative to standard European options due to the extreme volatility of underlying cryptocurrencies. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09302&r= |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson |
| Abstract: | Using data from all those born in a single week in 1958 in Britain we track the consequences of short pain and chronic pain in mid-life (age 44) on health, wellbeing and labor market outcomes in later life. We examine data taken at age 50 in 2008, when the Great Recession hit and then five years later at age 55 in 2013. We find those suffering both short-term and chronic pain at age 44 continue to report pain and poor general health in their 50s. However, the associations are much stronger for those with chronic pain. Furthermore, chronic pain at age 44 is associated with a range of poor mental health outcomes, pessimism about the future and joblessness at age 55 whereas short-duration pain at age 44 is not. Uniquely, we also show that pain experienced in childhood, at ages 11 and 16, reported by a parent and a teacher respectively, collected decades earlier, predicts pain in mid-life, indicating just how persistent pain can be over the life-course. |
| JEL: | I12 I31 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29278&r= |
| By: | Kelly Jones |
| Abstract: | An unintended birth at an early age has the potential to interrupt a woman’s education, with implications for her future career and earnings. This paper investigates the impact of abortion access on women’s economic outcomes later in life. I corroborate earlier findings that abortion access during adolescence and early adulthood reduces early births. I then offer updated evidence that, controlling for contraception access, abortion access increases educa¬tional attainment, career outcomes and earnings of black women and reduces their poverty and reliance on public assistance. Findings suggest that fertility is a significant pathway by which abortion access affects work status and family income, but that other pathways such as expectations and investment in human capital are more relevant for occupational choice and personal earnings. |
| Keywords: | fertility, family planning, abortion, economics of gender |
| JEL: | J13 I2 J24 J16 N32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:2021-02&r= |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower (Bruce V. Rauner ’78 Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755-3514. Adam Smith School of Business, University of Glasgow and NBER); Alex Bryson (Professor of Quantitative Social Science, UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, 20 Bedford Way, London WC1H 0AL) |
| Abstract: | Using data from all those born in a single week in 1958 in Britain we track the consequences of short pain and chronic pain in mid-life (age 44) on health, wellbeing and labor market outcomes in later life. We examine data taken at age 50 in 2008, when the Great Recession hit and then five years later at age 55 in 2013. We find those suffering both short-term and chronic pain at age 44 continue to report pain and poor general health in their 50s. However, the associations are much stronger for those with chronic pain. Furthermore, chronic pain at age 44 is associated with a range of poor mental health outcomes, pessimism about the future and joblessness at age 55 whereas short-duration pain at age 44 is not. Uniquely, we also show that pain experienced in childhood, at ages 11 and 16, reported by a parent and a teacher respectively, collected decades earlier, predicts pain in mid-life, indicating just how persistent pain can be over the life-course. |
| Keywords: | pain; mental health; general health; sleep; paid work; wellbeing; life-course; birth cohort; NCDS |
| JEL: | I12 I31 |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:2128&r= |
| By: | Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle; Caterina Brest López; Joaquín Campabadal; Julieta Ladronis; Nora Lustig; Valentina Martínez Pabón; Mariano Tommasi |
| Abstract: | We implement a fiscal incidence analysis for Argentina with data from the 2017 national household survey. We find that Argentina’s fiscal system reduces inequality and poverty more than it is the case in many other comparable countries. This result is driven more by the size of the state (as measured by social spending to GDP) than by the progressivity of the fiscal system. While there are spending items that are quite progressive and even pro-poor, taxes are unequalizing and a number of subsidies benefit disproportionately the rich. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, inequality, poverty, incidence, public economics |
| JEL: | E62 D6 H22 H23 I14 I24 I32 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:ceqwps:111&r= |
| By: | Alessandro Gavazza; Alessandro Lizzeri |
| Abstract: | This is an invited chapter for the forthcoming Volume 4 of the Handbook of Industrial Organization. We focus on markets with frictions, such as transaction costs, asymmetric information, search and matching frictions. We discuss how such frictions affect allocations, favor the emergence of intermediaries or dealers, and potentially create market power. Our focus is mostly on markets with many participants rather than on transactions that are bilateral or involve a small number of players. |
| JEL: | L0 L1 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29259&r= |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu |
| Abstract: | This essay discusses several potential economic, political and social costs of the current path of AI technologies. I argue that if AI continues to be deployed along its current trajectory and remains unregulated, it may produce various social, economic and political harms. These include: damaging competition, consumer privacy and consumer choice; excessively automating work, fueling inequality, inefficiently pushing down wages, and failing to improve worker productivity; and damaging political discourse, democracy's most fundamental lifeblood. Although there is no conclusive evidence suggesting that these costs are imminent or substantial, it may be useful to understand them before they are fully realized and become harder or even impossible to reverse, precisely because of AI's promising and wide-reaching potential. I also suggest that these costs are not inherent to the nature of AI technologies, but are related to how they are being used and developed at the moment - to empower corporations and governments against workers and citizens. As a result, efforts to limit and reverse these costs may need to rely on regulation and policies to redirect AI research. Attempts to contain them just by promoting competition may be insufficient. |
| JEL: | J23 J31 L13 L40 O33 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29247&r= |
| By: | Venmans, Frank; Groom, Ben |
| Abstract: | Measures of inequality aversion are elicited using hypothetical decision tasks. The tasks require an assessment of projects in the presence of environmental inequalities across space and time. We also test the effect of different environmental domains (air pollution, recreational forest and soil fertility) and contextual framings (gain/loss, within/between regions and present–future/past–present inter-temporal trade-offs). Estimated mean inequality aversion is higher in the intra-temporal framing (an elasticity of 2.9), than in the inter-temporal framing with either negative (2.0) or positive (1.4) growth in environmental quality. Differences across environmental domains exist but are less pronounced. Similar results hold for pure time preference. Losses are associated with a lower pure rate of time preference but higher inequality aversion compared to gains. The results indicate how domain-specific ‘dual’ discount rates or rather changing relative shadow prices for the environment might be calibrated. Yet, seen as an exercise in empirical social choice, the context dependent results reject the classical Utilitarian formulation of a single Ramsey Rule. |
| Keywords: | social discount rate; inequality; inequality aversion; cost benefit analysis; Ramsey rule; ES/R009708/1; UKRI block grant |
| JEL: | D31 H43 D61 |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110739&r= |
| By: | Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Michael Haupert |
| Date: | 2021–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03345558&r= |
| By: | Greyling, Talita; Rossouw, Stephanié |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 severely impacted world health and, as a consequence of the measures implemented to stop the spread of the virus, also irreversibly damaged the world economy. Research shows that receiving the COVID-19 vaccine is the most successful measure to combat the virus and could also address its indirect consequences. However, vaccine hesitancy is growing worldwide and the WHO names this hesitancy as one of the top ten threats to global health. Therefore, in this study, our primary aim is to uncover the explanatory variables related to people's attitudes to the COVID-19 vaccine and investigate changes in these attitudes and emotions over time. We derive our corpus data from vaccine-related tweets, harvested in real-time from Twitter. Using Natural Language Processing, we derive the sentiment and emotions contained in the tweets to construct daily time-series data measuring the attitudes and emotions towards vaccines. Our analyses include other daily data to derive a cross-country panel dataset from 1 February 2021 to 1 August 2021. To determine the robustness of the relationships between several variables and the sentiment (attitude) towards vaccines, we run various models, including POLS, panel fixed effects and instrumental variables estimations. Our results show that more information related to the safety and side-effects of the vaccines is needed to improve the attitude towards vaccines. Additionally, governments should increase people's trust in institutions and disseminate more information about vaccines in general, for example, via social media. The results of this study on how the public perceives the COVID-19 vaccine and what influences their attitude are of the utmost importance to policymakers, health workers, and stakeholders who communicate to the public during infectious disease outbreaks. Additionally, the global fight against COVID-19 might be lost if the attitude towards vaccines is not improved. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,Vaccines,Big Data,Attitudes |
| JEL: | C55 I18 I31 J18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:939&r= |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Adegboye, Alex; Ejemeyovwi, Jeremiah; Umukoro, Olaoluwa |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the relevance of mobile phone technology in complementing gender inclusive education (i.e. primary, secondary and tertiary) to promote public accountability (i.e. involving horizontal, vertical and diagonal accountability dynamics). The study utilizes the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique to establish the empirical evidence based on 48 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2005-2018. The following findings are documented from the linkages between mobile phone technology, inclusive education and public accountability. First, the interactions between mobile phone technology and inclusive education promote public accountability. Second, with regard to net effects, while unexpected negative signs are established, the corresponding positive interactive effects indicate that enhancing the penetration of mobile phone technology beyond some critical thresholds ensures positive net effects. Hence, policy makers should ensure that mobile phone technology penetration exceeds the established thresholds in order for gender inclusive education to positively affect public accountability. |
| Keywords: | Mobile phone technology, educational quality, public accountability, Africa |
| JEL: | E0 L96 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109847&r= |
| By: | Bachtal, Yassien |
| Date: | 2021–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:128563&r= |
| By: | Richard Rogerson; Johanna Wallenius |
| Abstract: | Employment rates of males aged 55-64 have changed dramatically in the OECD over the last 5 decades. The average employment rate decreased by more than 15 percentage points between the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, only to increase by roughly the same amount subsequently. One proposed explanation in the literature is that spousal non-working times are complements and that older males are working longer as a result of secular increases in labor supply of older females. In the first part of this paper we present evidence against this explanation. We then offer a new narrative to understand the employment rate changes for older individuals. We argue that the dramatic U-shaped pattern for older male employment rates should be understood as reflecting a mean reverting low frequency shock to labor market opportunities for all workers in combination with temporary country specific policy responses that incentivized older individuals to withdraw from market work. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:812&r= |
| By: | Robert Clark; Ignatius Horstmann; Jean-François Houde |
| Abstract: | Numerous recently uncovered cartels operated along the supply chain, with firms at one end facilitating collusion at the other – hub-and-spoke arrangements. These cartels are hard to rationalize because they induce double marginalization and higher costs. We examine Canada’s alleged bread cartel and provide the first comprehensive analysis of hub-and-spoke collusion. We make three contributions: i) Using court documents and pricing data we provide evidence that collusion existed at both ends of the supply chain, ii) we show that collusion was effective, increasing inflation by about 40% and iii) we provide a model explaining why this form of collusion arose. |
| JEL: | L1 L4 L41 L42 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29253&r= |
| By: | Ali Ozkes (WU - Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien [Austria], PULV - Pôle Universitaire Léonard de Vinci); M. Remzi Sanver (LAMSADE - Laboratoire d'analyse et modélisation de systèmes pour l'aide à la décision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the incompatibility of anonymity and neutrality in single-valued social choice. We first analyze the irresoluteness outlook these two axioms together with Pareto efficiency impose on social choice rules and deliver a method to refine irresolute rules without violating anonymity, neutrality, and efficiency. Next, we propose a weakening of neutrality called consequential neutrality that requires resolute social choice rules to assign each alternative to the same number of profiles. We explore social choice problems in which consequential neutrality resolves impossibilities that stem from the fundamental tension between anonymity, neutrality, and resoluteness. |
| Keywords: | anonymity,eciency,neutrality,resoluteness |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03341695&r= |
| By: | Kazenin Konstantin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Starodubrovskaya Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The most pressing issues faced by the regions of the North Caucasus in 2020 were associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. In the North Caucasian Republics, particular aspects of the social organization and economic structure of these subjects of the Russian Federation had an impact on the course of the epidemic and its consequences for the population. To build a state policy aimed to support the economy of the North Caucasus after a pandemic, as well as to improve the system for protecting people from epidemics and other natural threats in this part of the country, consideration must be given to local factors that have complicated the way of coping with the spread of a new infection by Republics of the North Caucasus Federal Okrug (NCFO). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, North Caucasus |
| JEL: | H11 H70 H77 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1131&r= |
| By: | Hyunduk Suh (Inha University) |
| Abstract: | Housing cycles can vary significantly across regions. This study investigates the macroeconomic implications of regionally heterogeneous housing cycles and stabilization policies. The general equilibrium model includes two separate regions, idiosyncratic shocks in regional housing markets, and inter-regional housing investments by households. Counterfactual simulations suggest that regional housing cycles can be a source of economic inequality between regions and the level of financial status by affecting consumption, housing service, debt and welfare asymmetrically across agents. Region-specific stabilization policies such as property tax, countercyclical loan-to-value, and housing supply policies can mitigate regional housing cycles, but it takes large policy responses if the cycle is caused by housing exuberance (demand) shocks. Those policies also have asymmetric welfare effects, while housing supply policy is the most beneficial to agents in the region that experiences the cycle. Leaning against the wind monetary policy is relatively ineffective in stabilizing regional housing prices and higher interest rates during housing price appreciations lower the welfare of borrowers in all regions. |
| Keywords: | Regionally heterogeneous housing cycles, monetary policy, macroprudential policy, housing |
| JEL: | E32 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inh:wpaper:2021-4&r= |
| By: | Jean-Marie Grether; Benjamin Tissot-Daguette |
| Abstract: | We use imputation techniques and combine official data sources to address the various shortcomings affecting the analysis of value-added data at the level of production units in Switzerland. The new ad hoc databases that emerge include consistent information on value added and employment at the level of geographically localized pseudo-firms over the 2011-2015 period. Our preferred sample is obtained through multiple imputation techniques, includes 18'000 pseudo-firms per year, covers two-third of Swiss municipalities and is suitable to address productivity issues at the microeconomic level. |
| Keywords: | Swiss firms, value-added, multiple imputation, spatial distribution. |
| JEL: | R11 R32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:21-09&r= |
| By: | Alaba, Oluwayemisi O.; Ojo, Oluwadare O.; Yaya, OlaOluwa S; Abu, Nurudeen; Ajobo, Saheed A. |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic has affected energy demand and pricing globally due to different lockdown measures embarked on by governments in different economies. As a result, prices of oil and petroleum products dropped drastically at the peak of the pandemic period. The present paper, therefore, investigates the effect of the pandemic on energy markets and compared the levels of market efficiency, volatility, and volatility persistence. Two 5-monthly daily data windows are considered, each for the period before and during the pandemic, and an updated nonlinear fractional integration approach in time series analysis is employed. Having considered prices of Crude oil, Gasoline, Diesel, Heating oil, Kerosene, and Propane from US markets, we find that energy markets are less efficient during the Covid-19 pandemic period, even though with higher volatility but with lesser volatility persistence compared to the period before the pandemic. Thus, volatility shocks last for a shorter period during the 5-month pandemic period than in the 5-month period that precedes the pandemic. It is hoped that the findings of this work will be of interest to oil marketers and administrators in the international oil markets. |
| Keywords: | Energy price; Covid-19 pandemic; Efficient market; Volatility persistence; Fractional integration |
| JEL: | C22 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2021–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109825&r= |
| By: | Lynn Riggs (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Livvy Mitchell (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Efforts to reduce emissions to counter climate change are expected to have both costs and benefits, and these effects are likely to be unevenly distributed across the population. Hence, we developed the Distributional Impacts Microsimulation for Employment (DIM-E) to examine the potential distributional employment impacts for different mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. DIM-E is comprised of two main components: the first component estimates industry-level employment effects, and the second simulates the characteristics of impacted workers and jobs. We based DIM-E on results from a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, C-PLAN, and applied them to more detailed employment information in order to better understand the extent to which industries, jobs and workers are likely to be impacted by the different pathways. It is possible, however, for DIM-E to be used to analyse any policy scenario and its baseline using employment indices and similar employment information. In this paper, we describe DIM-E in the context of the initial case for which it was developed – to analyse emissions budgets for greenhouse gasses to be set by the New Zealand government for three time periods (2022-2025, 2026-2030, and 2031-2035). We also provide a sampling of results from this initial case in order to put the methodology into context. Hence, we show that DIM-E can be used to examine changes in employment trends due to policy changes as well as the different types of workers that are most likely to be affected by the reallocation of employment across industries. We found that the DIM-E results produced for the initial case were in line with previous research in this area – the overall net industry employment effects were predicted to be relatively small, though some industries will be more affected than others especially in the short- and medium-term. Moreover, very few worker groups would be negatively affected (in terms of the number of jobs) by any of the proposed mitigation options especially over the long term. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics, Climate Change Mitigation, Distributional Impacts of Employment |
| JEL: | J01 Q52 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:21_14&r= |
| By: | Laura Leal; Haaris Mateen; Makoto Nirei; José A. Scheinkman |
| Abstract: | Nirei and Scheinkman (2021) proposed an equilibrium model of price adjustments with menu-costs with a finite number of firms and derived a “reproduction number” for repricing and a limit functional form for the distribution of the number of simultaneously price-adjusting firms. We show that the distribution of price-changes in data from the Billion Prices Project is well fitted by this functional form and exhibits a reproduction number that is close to unity, indicating that complementarity in price-changes plays a major role in repricings. |
| JEL: | E31 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29236&r= |
| By: | Abishek D M (VSKUB - Vijayanagara Sri Krishnadevaraya University (VSKU), Ballari) |
| Abstract: | A cross-sectional survey changed into performed from March to June 2019 of figuring out and comparing packaging factors of food merchandise. A pattern of 1,219 customers (657 women-562 men) participated withinside the study. Based on a evaluate of present research, a pool of 43 packaging factors for food merchandise changed into developed, aiming to have a look at the maximum critical packaging factors which have an effective dating with patron conduct in shopping for food merchandise. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and exploratory issue analysis (EFA) have been performed on a random split-1/2 of pattern of the facts to have a look at the issue shape of the 43 items withinside the preferred population. Confirmatory issue analysis (CFA) changed into performed withinside the holdout pattern. The HCA and EFA of the packaging items ended in a seven-issue solution: (1) Informational content, (2) Content safety and recognition, (3) Smart functioning, (4) Geometry, (5) Environmental friendliness, (6) Endurance, and (7) Coloration. CFA withinside the holdout pattern supported this issue shape. It changed into discovered that sociodemographic factors such as gender, place of residence and age are related to the customer's evaluation of a food item's packaging. The findings of the present study are enlightened by the consumers' attitudes and predispositions towards packaging, thus having possible managerial applications. |
| Keywords: | Marketing,Package,Food Products,Consumer Behavior,Packaging Elements |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03332526&r= |
| By: | Simon Mongey |
| Abstract: | I study a general equilibrium menu cost model with a continuum of sectors, idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks, and the novel feature that each sector consists of strategically engaged firms. Compared to an economy with monopolistically competitive sectors—separately parameterized to match the same microdata on price flexibility—the oligopoly economy features a smaller response of inflation to monetary shocks and output responses that are more than twice as large. Under the same parameters, output responses are five times larger. An oligopoly economy also (i) requires smaller menu costs and idiosyncratic shocks to match the microdata, addressing a significant challenge for mechanisms that generate non-neutrality via strategic complementarities, (ii) implies four times larger welfare losses from same sized nominal rigidities, and (iii) provides a novel rationale for positive menu costs: in an oligopoly firms prefer a degree of rigidity to complete flexibility. Quantitatively, the estimated degree of nominal rigidity is found to be close to optimal, from firms’ perspective. |
| JEL: | E0 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29233&r= |
| By: | Henri Njangang (University of Dschang? Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Sosson Tadadjeu (University of Dschang , Cameroon); Yann Nounamo (University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon); Brice Kamguia (University of Dschang, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The study assesses the role of governance in modulating the effect of oil wealth on wealth inequality in 45 countries in the world. The empirical evidence is based on Pooled Ordinary Least Squares and the Generalised Method of Moments. The findings show that oil rents unconditionally increase wealth inequality while govenance dyanmics (in terms of rule of law, corruption-control, government effectiveness, regulatory quality) moderate oil rents for an overall net negative effect on wealth inequality. Good governance thresholds at which the unconditional effect of oil rents on the wealth inequality changes from positive to negative are computed and discussed. It follows that while governance is a necessary condition for improving the redistributive effects of oil wealth, it becomes a sufficient condition for net positive improvements in wealth distribution only when some critical levels of good governance have been reached. Other policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Governance; Oil wealth; Wealth inequality, Panel data |
| JEL: | F21 F54 L71 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/049&r= |
| By: | Borzykh Ksenia (RANEPA); Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The transportation industry is not only a key sector of the economy, but also its indispensable glue. The development of transport infrastructure is a major factor of economic growth and a key driver of exit from the economic crisis. In the past few years, the transportation industry demonstrated upturn dynamic both in terms of the development of infrastructure and the volumes of transportation. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and the relevant restrictions aimed at fighting the spread thereof led to substantial changes in the supply and demand situation on numerous markets, not only affecting directly freight and passenger traffic, but also making a sizable portion of the population revise their views on the need and required parameters of the infrastructure (not only transport infrastructure, but also social-information and communication ones). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, transportation industry, foreign trade, customs regulation |
| JEL: | L91 L92 L93 L99 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1136&r= |
| By: | Andrew Crawley; Todd M. Gabe; Mariya Pominova |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the use of location quotients, a measure of regional business activity relative to the national benchmark, as an indicator of sectoral agglomeration in small cities and towns, and as a measure of industry specialization that might impact the number of new business startups in these places. Using establishment-level data on businesses located in Maine, our findings suggest that the addition of one "hypothetical" establishment in very small towns leads to a dramatic change in the magnitude of the region-industry location quotient. At population sizes of about 4,100 or more people, however, location quotients are reasonably stable. Regression results from an analysis of the relationship between new business activity and regional industry specialization show that the effect of location quotients on business startups switches from "inelastic" to "elastic" at a population size cutoff of about 2,600 residents. Overall, our findings suggest that researchers and practitioners should exercise caution when using location quotients to study small regions. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration; Industrial Cluster; Location Quotient; Regional Economics; Rural |
| JEL: | R10 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1329&r= |
| By: | Bursztyn, Leonardo; Callen, Mike; Ferman, Bruno; Gulzar, Saad; Hasanain, Ali; Yuchtman, Noam |
| Abstract: | We identify Pakistani men’s willingness to pay to preserve their anti-American identity using two experiments imposing clearly specified financial costs on anti-American expression, with minimal consequential or social considerations. In two distinct studies, one-quarter to one-third of subjects forgo payments from the U.S. government worth around one-fifth of a day’s wage to avoid an identity-threatening choice: anonymously checking a box indicating gratitude toward the U.S. government. We find sensitivity to both payment size and anticipated social context: when subjects anticipate that rejection will be observable by others, rejection falls suggesting that, for some, social image can outweigh self-image. |
| JEL: | P16 D00 C90 |
| Date: | 2020–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101465&r= |
| By: | Jayasooriya, Sujith |
| Abstract: | Climate change becomes one of the most severe problems in the World. Notably, carbon footprints are one of the key factors for climate change. The important question is that how to mitigate climate change by adapting mitigation practices in the agricultural sector in Asia. The rationale for the study is to understand the determining factors for the emission of carbon dioxide in the agricultural sector with robust analysis. In terms of policy perspectives as the main emission gases are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. This study is only considered the CO2 emissions from the agricultural sector. The data were obtained from the USDA website supplemented by the WDI of the World Bank in 46 Asian countries from 1970 to 2016. The study applied random and fixed effect models in the panel data analysis to predict the factors affecting the CO2 emission in the agricultural sector. Furthermore, the generalized estimation of equations was also applied to avoid the endogeneity issue while obtaining robust estimates. The agricultural factors like feed, fertilizer, labor, livestock, irrigation, and machinery were significant and positive predictors of the carbon footprints. Thus, the management of sustainable agricultural factors to control the CO2 emission can be proposed for the GHG emission policies in the Asian region. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Carbon footprint, GEE, GHG policies |
| JEL: | C23 Q1 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109790&r= |
| By: | Andrés Monzón (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid); Elena López (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the problem of involuntary social exclusion resulting from mobility constraints by proposing a conceptual model for the interaction between transport and wellbeing. Providing accessibility for all yields widely shared benefits that are largely overlooked by traditional appraisal methods. While some see the ultimate aim of transport policy as increasing wellbeing, an agreed model of how these two interact does not currently exist. |
| Date: | 2020–11–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2020/26-en&r= |
| By: | Mbuyi Allegra Kabamba (UNIKIN - Université de Kinshasa); T. Kojack Kondolo |
| Abstract: | La présente étude évalue l'impact de la coordination des politiques monétaire et budgétaire sur la stabilité du niveau général des prix dans le contexte de la République Démocratique du Congo de 1990 à 2019. Notre investigation empirique porte sur la RDC entre 1990 et 2019, et fait appel au modèle VAR. Les résultats ont montré l'existence de cette coordination durant quelques années. Aussi, cette coordination présente des effets positifs sur la stabilité du niveau général des prix. Ces preuves suggèrent que la Banque Centrale du Congo (BCC) doit travailler d'arrache-pied avec le gouvernement congolais pour assurer la stabilité du niveau général des prix. |
| Keywords: | DRC,VAR model,monetary policy,fiscal policy,Policy mix coordination |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03346458&r= |
| By: | Mohammad Nur Nobi |
| Abstract: | A majority portion of the slum people is involved in service sectors. The city dwellers are somehow dependent on the services of those people. Pure drinking water and hygiene is a significant concern in the slums. Because of the lack of these two items, the slum people are getting sick, which causes the interruption to their services. In addition, they can transmit the diseases they suffer from to the service receiver. With these aims, this study endeavors to explore the willingness to pay of the households who receive the services of the slum people using the mixed-method techniques. Under this technique, 265 households were surveyed through face-to-face interviews, and 10 KIIs were conducted with slum people. The study's findings suggest that the households showed their willingness to pay for the improvement of the water and sanitation facilities in the slums. However, the KIIs findings show that the slum people are not willing to pay for the improvement as they claim that government should finance the project of improving water and sanitation facilities in the slums. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05421&r= |
| By: | Kaito Ariu; Masahiro Kato; Junpei Komiyama; Kenichiro McAlinn |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to connect the "policy choice" problem, proposed in Kasy and Sautmann (2021), to the frontiers of the bandit literature in machine learning. We discuss how the policy choice problem can be framed in a way such that it is identical to what is called the "best arm identification" (BAI) problem. By connecting the literature, we identify that the asymptotic optimality of policy choice algorithms tackled in Kasy and Sautmann (2021) is a long-standing open question in the literature. Unfortunately, this connection highlights several major issues with the main theorem. In particular, we show that Theorem 1 in Kasy and Sautmann (2021) is false. We find that the proofs of statements (1) and (2) of Theorem 1 are incorrect, though the statements themselves may be true, though non-trivial to fix. Statement (3), and its proof, on the other hand, is false, which we show by utilizing existing theoretical results in the bandit literature. As this question is critically important, garnering much interest in the last decade within the bandit community, we provide a review of recent developments in the BAI literature. We hope this serves to highlight the relevance to economic problems and stimulate methodological and theoretical developments in the econometric community. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.08229&r= |
| By: | Roc Armenter; Michèle Müller-Itten; Zachary Strangebye |
| Abstract: | We present a geometric approach to the finite Rational Inattention (RI) model, recasting it as a convex optimization problem with reduced dimensionality that is well-suited to numerical methods. We provide an algorithm that outperforms existing RI computation techniques in terms of both speed and accuracy. We also introduce methods to quantify the impact of numerical inaccuracy on the behavioral predictions and to produce robust predictions regarding the most frequently implemented actions. |
| Keywords: | rational inattention; Shannon entropy; information acquisition; learning; consideration sets |
| JEL: | C63 D81 D83 |
| Date: | 2021–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:93054&r= |
| By: | Ghassan, Hassan B.; Alhajhoj, Hassan R.; Balli, Faruk |
| Abstract: | The study explores the impacts of the bi-demographic structure on the current account and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Using structural vector autoregressive modeling (SVAR), we track the dynamic impacts on these underlying variables. New insights about the dynamic interrelation between bi-population age dependency rate, current account, and GDP growth have been developed. In the short and medium-term, the reactions of GDP growth to both shocks of native and immigrant working-age populations move unsteadily in opposite directions. However, in the long-run, both effects become moderately positive. Additionally, the positive long-run contribution of immigrant workers to the current account growth largely compensates for the negative contribution of the native population. We find a negative hump-shaped reaction of Saudi Age Dependency Rate to immigration policy shocks during a generation. When the shocks emanate from immigrants’ working age, there is a complex mechanism from the complementarity process to the substitutability process between immigrants and the Saudi workforce. In the short and medium-term, the immigrant workers are more complements than substitutes for native workers. |
| Keywords: | Native population, Immigrant population, Current account, GDP Growth, Cointegration, SVAR |
| JEL: | C51 F22 F41 J15 J23 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109772&r= |
| By: | Matthew Read |
| Abstract: | I develop algorithms to facilitate Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions that are set-identified with sign and zero restrictions by showing that the system of restrictions is equivalent to a system of sign restrictions in a lower-dimensional space. Consequently, algorithms applicable under sign restrictions can be extended to allow for zero restrictions. Specifically, I extend algorithms proposed in Amir-Ahmadi and Drautzburg (2021) to check whether the identified set is nonempty and to sample from the identified set without rejection sampling. I compare the new algorithms to alternatives by applying them to variations of the model considered by Arias et al (2019), who estimate the effects of US monetary policy using sign and zero restrictions on the monetary policy reaction function. The new algorithms are particularly useful when a large number of sign restrictions substantially truncate the identified set given the zero restrictions. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10676&r= |
| By: | Cesira Urzi Brancati (European Commission – JRC); Maurizio Curtarelli (EU-OSHA) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the association between digital technologies that enable new forms of management and the presence of psychosocial risks in the workplace, drawing on a representative survey of European establishments (ESENER 2019). It also ascertains whether occupational safety and health (OSH) preventive measures and policies may play a mitigating role in managing risks and reducing the potentially negative impact of technology. In line with the literature and with prior expectations, our analysis reveals that digital technologies enabling the new forms of management are associated to increased psychosocial risks, which in turn can result in work-related stress and other mental health issues. It also confirmed that OSH measures, such as having an action plan to prevent work related stress, help reducing psychosocial risks in the workplace, but do not mitigate the relationship between psychosocial risks and management technologies. |
| Keywords: | algorithmic management; digitalisation; workplace monitoring; psychosocial risks; work related stress |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I18 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:202112&r= |
| By: | Lin William Cong (Cornell University); Danxia Xie (Tsinghua University); Longtian Zhang (Central University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | We build an endogenous growth model with consumer-generated data as a new key factor for knowledge accumulation. Consumers balance between providing data for profit and potential privacy infringement. Intermediate good producers use data to innovate and contribute to the final good production, which fuels economic growth. Data are dynamically nonrival with flexible ownership while their production is endogenous and policy-dependent. Although a decentralized economy can grow at the same rate (but are at different levels) as the social optimum on the Balanced Growth Path, the R&D sector underemploys labor and overuses data -- an inefficiency mitigated by subsidizing innovators instead of direct data regulation. As a data economy emerges and matures, consumers' data provision endogenously declines after a transitional acceleration, allaying long-run privacy concerns but portending initial growth traps that call for interventions. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10028&r= |
| By: | Julien Pinter (University of Minho, NIPE, Braga); Evzen Kocenda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Prague & CESifo, Munich & IOS, Regensburg) |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate whether monetary policy announcements affect firms' and consumers' expectations by taking into account media treatments of monetary policy announcements. To identify exogenous changes in monetary policy stances, we use the standard financial monetary policy surprise measures in the euro area. We then analyze how a general newspaper and a financial newspaper (Le Monde and The Financial Times) report on announcements. We find that 87 % of monetary policy surprises are either not associated with the general newspaper reporting a change in the monetary policy stance to their readers or have a sign that is inconsistent with the media report of the announcement. When we use the raw monetary policy surprises variable as an independent variable in the link between monetary policy announcements and firms'/consumers' expectations, we mostly do not find, in line with several previous studies, any statistically significant association. When we take only monetary policy surprises that are consistent with the general newspaper report, in almost all cases we find that monetary policy surprises on the immediate monetary policy stance do affect expectations. Surprises related to future policy inclination and information shocks usually do not appear to matter. The results appear to be in line with rational inattention theories and highlight the need for caution in the use of monetary policy surprise measures for macroeconomic investigations. |
| Keywords: | firm expectations; consumer expectations; monetary policy surprises; European Central Bank; information effect |
| JEL: | D84 E02 E52 E31 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2021_30&r= |
| By: | Yaya, OlaOluwa S; Vo, Xuan Vinh; Olayinka, Hammed Abiola |
| Abstract: | The present paper investigates the long-run relationships between daily prices, stocks and fear gauges of gold and silver by employing an updated fractional cointegrating framework, that is, the Fractional Cointegrating Vector Autoregression (FCVAR). The initial unit root tests results indicate that the series are I(d)s with values of d around 1 in all cases, and these are homogenous in the paired cointegrating series. Evidence of cointegration is found in the three pairs (prices, stocks and market gauge indices), while these cointegrations are only time-varying in the case of market gauge indices for the commodities. The fact that cointegration exists in prices and stocks of gold and silver implies the possibility that gold and silver prices and stocks can interchangeably be used to access the performances of the commodity markets, with the recommendation that the two commodities are not to be traded in the same portfolio. |
| Keywords: | Fractional cointegration; FCVAR; Gold; Silver; Mean reversion; Market fear gauges |
| JEL: | C22 C32 |
| Date: | 2021–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109830&r= |
| By: | Rodrigo Barra Novoa (UCJC - Universidad Camilo José Cela - Universidad Privada Madrid) |
| Abstract: | The article analyzes under a case study methodology the first economic impact results of the Small Business Development Center program in Arica, a program financed by the Technical Cooperation Service (SERCOTEC). The preliminary conclusion of the article suggests that the first economic impact results show that the 833 enterprises assisted by the program generate more sales opportunities, jobs, and investments, creating positive income and fiscal returns, despite the enormous difficulties presented by the current pandemic facing the country and especially the region. From a public policy standpoint, the CDN's contribution to the regional economy helps create new employment opportunities in growing MSMEs. For their part, maturing companies contribute to job retention thanks to the advisory processes that help reorient their businesses, and the work with entrepreneurs contributes to the generation of new businesses that strengthen the regional economy. |
| Keywords: | business,economic growth,public policies,small enterprises,SERCOTEC |
| Date: | 2021–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03341300&r= |
| By: | Marianne Mueller (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)) |
| Abstract: | With France due to take over the presidency of the Council of the European Union in January 2022, this paper first examines the scope of the Council's work, and then draws attention to two areas of necessary reform. The Council of the European Union directly represents the governments of the member states and can initiate major changes - if initiatives are followed by the European Commission and the European Parliament - but not in all areas. The Presidency of the Council, a role which includes planning the agenda, is important because the holder of the presidency chooses the issues will be the focus of attention, initiates discussions, suggests changes and can accelerate (or delay) efforts in certain areas. Here, the discussion recalls in particular the importance of the issues of climate change, migration, security (including cyber security), and inclusive growth. It then focuses on two discussions that the French Presidency must initiate, two areas in which the so-called "trio" of France, Czechia and Sweden (i.e. successive holders of the office of president which coordinate on policy) must promote reform: The budgetary framework and industrial policy. These crucial policy fields are all the more important as the functioning of the European institutions and the role conferred on the EU are no longer in line with current challenges. The fiscal framework of the European Union, which was established by the Maastricht Treaty, consists of pre- and post-accession convergence criteria that member states must respect when planning and executing their national budgets, a preventive arm, and a corrective arm. The corrective arm is a set of measures aimed at sanctioning states that do not respect the budgetary rules, and can go as far as financial sanctions - however, no country has yet been subjected to such a sanction. Since the bursting of the "dot com" bubble in the early 2000s, and especially after the 2008 Transatlantic Financial Crisis, which was followed by the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, the debt-GDP ratio of the Eurozone (and more generally of EU) countries has been rising steadily. The number of countries under an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) has remained positive since 2003. Moreover, to mitigate the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, many governments have taken countercyclical measures, including financial support, which have resulted in a drastic increase in public deficits and public debt. This recurrent non-compliance with fiscal rules indicates a mismatch between economic imperatives, on one hand, and fiscal rules, on the other. Furthermore, there is strong heterogeneity across countries, which undermines the stability of the Eurozone system as a whole. Finally, the context in which the budgetary rules were initially decided and agreed upon is quite different from the current environment, since today the cost of public debt is no longer representative of the real situation - as demonstrated by the sovereign spread between Germany and Greece in 2021. To this end, a reform (or even a restructuring) of the fiscal framework is inevitable as argued herein. Concerning European industrial policy, the interest of implementing an industrial strategy at the EU level is both to coordinate economic interests and to ensure the integration and strategic autonomy of all member states, while also respecting climate objectives. Economically, countries with industries in the same sectors have a strong interest in cooperating, whether by creating innovative hubs or facilitating the exchange of labour and knowledge, in order to foster the global competitiveness of their industries. Cooperation between countries can also be of interest in the implementation of a circular economy model, where a diverse set of companies work in synergy to better manage resources and waste. There is currently a marked heterogeneity between countries, both in terms of their rate of industrialisation, the types of industries, but also in terms of the skills of their workforce. A strategy at the EU level necessarily needs to take these differences into account; it can be seen as a multi-speed strategy, where each country adapts its national industrial policy to its own situation. It may also involve implementing educational programmes directly in countries with relatively low levels of skilled workers. Beyond the coordination of countries and the recognition of individual characteristics, certain measures benefit the entire productive sector, from SMEs to large companies, in Western European countries as well as in Eastern and Southern Europe: These include measures to support education, research and development, and investment in infrastructure. The latter aspects are essential to the digital transition, which is a contemporary strategic challenge in which many countries are still laggards. The type of industrial policy to be implemented therefore depends on the objectives, and can be sectoral or horizontal. |
| Keywords: | European Union, France, Policy Options, Outlook |
| JEL: | F00 F01 F5 N14 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei306&r= |
| By: | Yaya, OlaOluwa S.; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Adekoya, Oluwasegun B.; Vo, Xuan Vinh |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the analysis of long-run relationships of fear indices for US stocks, commodities, and the energy sector with global fear indices for stocks and oil. Departing from the classical literature, fractional integration, and cointegration techniques are used to determine the degree of persistence in the long-run relationship of the indices. Our results are threefold. We first established a fractional cointegrating relationship between each of the global and oil fear indices and other fear indices. However, the long-run relationship tends to be weak for the technology stocks. In addition, the cointegrating framework reveals a nonstationary mean-reverting behaviour in the long-run relationship, implying that the effect of shocks from financial, economic, or other exogenous sources will be temporary though with long-lasting effects. These findings have crucial policy inferences for portfolio managers concerning investment decisions. |
| Keywords: | CBOE fear gauge; mean reversion; fractional integration; fractional cointegration; technology stocks |
| JEL: | C22 G01 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109829&r= |
| By: | Jaller, Miguel; Pahwa, Anmol; Zhang, Michael |
| Abstract: | Freight is fundamental to economic growth, however, the trucks that haul this freight are pollution intensive, emitting criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases at high rates. The increasing volume and time-sensitivity of freight demand over the past decade has encouraged carriers to take the fastest route, which is often not an eco-friendly route. The increase in urban freight movement has thus brought along negative externalities such as congestion, emissions, and noise into cities. Alternative fuel technologies, such as electric trucks and hydrogen-fuel trucks can significantly reduce freight-related emissions. However, despite their lower operational costs, the high purchase cost and consequent longer payback periods compared to traditional vehicles, have resulted in slow adoption rates. Since the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and local criteria pollutants is immediate, accounting for externalities in carriers’ tactical and operational decision-making in the form of eco-routing can bring about desired reductions in emissions. The objectives of this work are to explore the possibilities and potential of eco-routing from the perspective of the carrier, in terms of cost-benefits and trade-offs, and from the perspective of the regulator, in terms of network-wide effects and policy initiatives that could encourage carriers to eco-route. This study evaluates reduction in global greenhouse emissions and local criteria pollutants, with a particular focus on direct impacts on disadvantaged communities in the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) region. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Eco-routing, multi-criteria traffic assignment, origin-based traffic assignment, TAPAS, geofencing |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9qg2318x&r= |
| By: | Ila Patnaik (NIPFP); Renuka Sane (NIPFP); Ajay Shah (xKDR Forum); S. V. Subramaniam (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Self-reported health (srh) is an important health outcomes measure. In this paper, we examine a large-scale household survey dataset in India. We establish basic facts about srh and its relationship with household characteristics. We find that location heterogeneity is a major element of the statistical variation of ill-health, apart from age and income. Increased income is correlated with improved health in about half of the country. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anf:wpaper:6&r= |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo; Costantiello, Alberto |
| Abstract: | We estimate the relationships between innovation and human resources in Europe using the European Innovation Scoreboard of the European Commission for 36 countries for the period 2010-2019. We perform Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Random Effects, Pooled OLS, Dynamic Panel and WLS. We found that Human resources is positively associated to “Basic-school entrepreneurial education and training”, “Employment MHT manufacturing KIS services”, “Employment share Manufacturing (SD)”, “Lifelong learning”, “New doctorate graduates”, “R&D expenditure business sector”, “R&D expenditure public sector”, “Tertiary education”. Our results also show that “Human Resources” is negatively associated to “Government procurement of advanced technology products”, “Medium and high-tech product exports”, “SMEs innovating in-house”, “Venture capital”. In adjunct we perform a clusterization with k-Means algorithm and we find the presence of three clusters. Clusterization shows the presence of Central and Northern European countries that has higher levels of Human Resources, while Southern and Eastern Europe has very low degree of Human Resources. Finally, we use seven machine learning algorithms to predict the value of Human Resources in Europe Countries using data in the period 2014-2021 and we show that the linear regression algorithm performs at the highest level. |
| Keywords: | Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives, Management of Technological Innovation and R&D, Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital, Open Innovation, Government Policy. |
| JEL: | O30 O31 O32 O33 O34 O38 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109749&r= |
| By: | Bruno S. Frey; Anthony Gullo |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the happiness literature by analyzing the causal relationship between sports and happiness. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio- Economic Panel (GSOEP), we find a positive correlation between sports participa- tion and reported life satisfaction. This relationship is stronger at younger and older ages than in middle age, and for people in bad health compared to those in average health. We further provide evidence for both causal directions. It turns out that the causal impact of engaging in sports on happiness is about four times higher than the effect of happiness on engaging in sports. |
| Keywords: | happiness; life satisfaction; well-being; sports; causality |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2021-30&r= |
| By: | Jan De Loecker; Chad Syverson |
| Abstract: | This chapter overviews productivity research from an industrial organization perspective. We focus on what is known and what still needs to be learned about the productivity levels and dynamics of individual producers, but also how these interact through markets and industries to influence productivity aggregates. We overview productivity concepts, facts, data, measurement, analysis, and open questions. |
| JEL: | D2 L1 L2 L6 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29229&r= |
| By: | Akbal, Can |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the empirical relationship between entrepreneurship and the shadow economy size. To this end, we use cross-country data and most-frequently-used measure of the entrepreneurial activity, i.e., Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI), as well as its subindices, and calculate correlations of these indices with the size of the informal sector and its major determinants. Our analysis indicates that there are significant correlations between the variables involved. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, shadow economy, cross-country data |
| JEL: | E00 H00 |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109739&r= |
| By: | Domenico Delli Gatti; Severin Reissl; Enrico Turco |
| Abstract: | We employ a new version of the ABC macro-epidemiological agent based model presented in Delli Gatti and Reissl (2020) to evaluate the effects of vaccinations and variants on the epidemic and macroeconomic outlook. Vaccination plays the role of a mitigating factor, reducing the frequency and the amplitude of contagion waves, while also significantly improving macroeconomic performance. The emergence of a variant, on the other hand, plays the role of an accelerating factor, increasing the volatility of epidemic curves and worsening the macroeconomic outlook. If a more contagious variant emerges after vaccination becomes available, therefore, the mitigating factor of the latter is at least partially offset by the former. A new and improved vaccine in turn can redress the situation. Vaccinations and variants, therefore, can be conceived of as drivers of an intertwined cycle impacting both epidemiological and macroeconomic developments. |
| Keywords: | agent-based models, epidemic, Covid, vaccination, variant |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E24 E27 I12 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9291&r= |
| By: | Peter B. Dixon; Maureen T. Rimmer; Scott Farrow |
| Abstract: | With Covid, high-school students are having difficulty staying in school. We present a dynamic model of the effects of increased drop-out rates. The model accounts for labor productivity, crime costs and high-school savings. We simulate a 25 per cent increase in drop-out rates occurring in the two years starting September 2019, with a gradual return to pre-Covid rates in 2025. Our results show a loss of 597,000 high-school graduations from cohorts entering high-school in 2016-2024. The present-value cost is between $42 and $137 billion, depending on discount rates. These results support investment in high-school retention policies through the Covid crisis. |
| Keywords: | Covid and high-school drop-out rates, dynamic model of student numbers, educational attainment of workforce, cost of reduced high-school graduation rates |
| JEL: | I26 J08 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-321&r= |
| By: | M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska L. Ohnsorge; Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff |
| Abstract: | Debt in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is at its highest level in half a century. In about nine out of 10 EMDEs, debt is higher now than it was in 2010 and, in half of the EMDEs, debt is more than 30 percentage points of gross domestic product higher. Historically, elevated debt levels increased the incidence of debt distress, particularly in EMDEs and particularly when financial market conditions turned less benign. This paper reviews an encompassing menu of options that have, in the past, helped lower debt burdens. Specifically, it examines orthodox options (enhancing growth, fiscal consolidation, privatization, and wealth taxation) and heterodox options (inflation, financial repression, debt default and restructuring). The mix of feasible options depends on country characteristics and the type of debt. However, none of these options comes without political, economic, and social costs. Some options may ultimately be ineffective unless vigorously implemented. Policy reversals in difficult times have been common. The challenges associated with debt reduction raise questions of global governance, including to what extent advanced economies can cast their net wider to cushion prospective shocks to EMDEs. |
| JEL: | E32 E63 F34 F44 F62 H6 H63 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29266&r= |
| By: | Neva Seidman Makgetla |
| Abstract: | Tariffs on basic foods: evolution and impacts |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11019&r= |
| By: | Ryan Kellogg; Mar Reguant |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses contributions that industrial organization economists have made to our understanding of energy markets and environmental regulation. We emphasize the substantive contributions of recent papers while also highlighting how this literature has adopted and sometimes augmented theoretical and empirical tools from industrial organization. Many of the topics examined by this literature—especially auctions, investment, productivity and innovation, and regulation—also apply to a variety of settings beyond energy and the environment. We also indicate areas where future research is likely to be fruitful, with an emphasis on how industrial organization economists can help inform energy and environmental policies. |
| JEL: | L0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29235&r= |
| By: | David K Levine |
| Date: | 2021–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cla:levarc:786969000000001775&r= |
| By: | Alyce S. Adams; Raymond Kluender; Neale Mahoney; Jinglin Wang; Francis Wong; Wesley Yin |
| Abstract: | Most hospitals and managed care organizations have financial assistance programs that aim to reduce financial burdens and improve health care access for low-income patients. We use administrative data from Kaiser Permanente to study the effects of financial assistance on health care utilization. Using a regression discontinuity design based on an income threshold for program eligibility, we find that financial assistance significantly increases health care utilization initially, though effects dissipate three quarters after program receipt. Financial assistance also increases the detection of and medication refills for treatment-sensitive conditions, suggesting financial assistance may increase receipt of high-value care. |
| JEL: | I1 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29227&r= |
| By: | Chanthol, Hay |
| Abstract: | Money supply in a highly dollarized Cambodian economy appears to be highly unstable because the composition of domestic currency in aggregate money supply is very small. During its transition towards a market economy, Cambodia embarked upon a path of disinflation through dollarization and stable exchange rate. In this paper, the trend and behavior of money supply, money demand and inflation are examined, and a model is developed to explain the determinants of inflation under dollarization and estimate it for Cambodia in the 2000s using a two-step procedure. This paper also shows that management of rice price, gasoline price with a restrictive monetary policy based on broadly defined money or total liquidity was essential for the Cambodian authorities to succeed in fighting inflation. This paper explain the behavior of inflation and the role that a central bank may play in its determination. |
| Keywords: | money demand, inflation, dollarization, exchange rate |
| JEL: | E31 E41 E52 |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109805&r= |
| By: | Dinh, Cong Khai; Ngo, Quang Thanh; Nguyen, Trung Thanh |
| Abstract: | Sustaining economic growth while reducing dependence on fossil fuels remains a challenge for our world to fight against climate change and therefore finding a way to promote economic growth and increase renewable energy use is needed. This paper uses a 22-year panel dataset (1994– 2015) of 9 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations provided by the World Bank World Development Indicators to examine the impact of medium- and high-tech export on renewable energy use. We employ a fixed-effects regression model with the Driscoll–Kraay nonparametric covariance matrix estimator to account for sectoral and temporal dependence. We also control for inflation, employment, population growth, and gross domestic product per capita in our estimations. Our results demonstrate a U-shaped association between medium- and high-tech export and renewable energy consumption of these economies. The results propose that enhancing medium- and high-tech export could be a feasible solution for promoting renewable energy consumption. |
| Keywords: | renewable energy; medium- and high-tech export; economic growth; employment; inflation; ASEAN |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2021–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109669&r= |
| By: | Benoit Carmichael; Gilles Boevi Koumou; Kevin Moran |
| Abstract: | We use an equivalent form of Markowitz's mean-variance utility function, based on Rao's Quadratic Entropy (RQE), to enrich the standard capital asset pricing model (CAPM), both in the presence and in the absence of a risk-free asset. The resulting equilibrium, which we denote RQE-CAPM, offers important new insights about the pricing of risk. Notably, it reveals that the reason for which the standard CAPM does not price idiosyncratic risk is not only because the market portfolio is law of large numbers diversified but also because the model implicitly assumes agents' total risk aversion and their correlation diversification risk preference balance each other exactly. We then demonstrate that idiosyncratic risk is priced in a general RQE-CAPM where agents' total risk aversion and their correlation diversification risk preference coefficients are not necessary equal. Our general RQE-CAPM therefore offers a unifying way of thinking about the pricing of idiosyncratic risk, including cases where such risk is negatively priced, and is relevant for the literature assessing the idiosyncratic risk puzzle. It also provides a natural theoretical underpinning for the empirical tests of the CAPM or the pricing of idiosyncratic risk performed in some existence studies. |
| Keywords: | : Rao's Quadratic Entropy, Mean-Variance Model, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Idiosyncratic Risk, Correlation Diversification. |
| JEL: | D81 G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:crrecr:2107&r= |
| By: | Julien Combe (CREST-Ecole polytechnique, France); Vladyslav Nora (Economics department, Nazarbayev University); Olivier Tercieux (Paris School of Economics ,France) |
| Abstract: | We study a large market model of dynamic matching with no monetary transfers and a continuum of agents. Time is discrete and horizon finite. Agents are in the market from the first date and, at each date, have to be assigned items (or bundles of items). When the social planner can only elicit ordinal preferences of agents over the sequences of items, we prove that, under a mild regularity assumption, incentive compatible and ordinally efficient allocation rules coincide with spot mechanisms. A spot mechanism specifies “virtual prices” for items at each date and, at the beginning of time, for each agent, randomly selects a budget of virtual money according to a (potentially non-uniform) distribution over [0,1]. Then, at each date, the agent is allocated the item of his choice among the affordable ones. Spot mechanisms impose a linear structure on prices and, perhaps surprisingly, our result shows that this linear structure is what is needed when one requires incentive compatibility and ordinal efficiency. When the social planner can elicit cardinal preferences, we prove that, under a similar regularity assumption, incentive compatible and Pareto efficient mechanisms coincide with a class of mechanisms we call Spot Menu of Random Budgets mechanisms. These mechanisms are similar to spot mechanisms except that, at the beginning of the time, each agent must pick a distribution in a menu. This distribution is used to initially draw the agent's budget of virtual money. |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2021-11&r= |
| By: | Jaedo Choi; Andrei A. Levchenko |
| Abstract: | This paper provides causal evidence of the impact of industrial policy on firms' long-term performance and quantifies industrial policy's long-term welfare effects. Using a natural experiment and unique historical data during the Heavy and Chemical Industry (HCI) Drive in South Korea, we find large and persistent effects of firm-level subsidies on firm size. Subsidized firms are larger than those never subsidized even 30 years after subsidies ended. Motivated by this empirical finding, we build a quantitative heterogeneous firm model that rationalizes these persistent effects through a combination of learning-by-doing (LBD) and financial frictions that hinder firms from internalizing LBD. The model is calibrated to firm-level micro data, and its key parameters are disciplined with the econometric estimates. Counterfactual analysis implies that the industrial policy generated larger benefits than costs. If the industrial policy had not been implemented, South Korea's welfare would have been 22-31% lower, depending on how long-lived are the productivity benefits of LBD. Between one-half and two-thirds of the total welfare difference comes from the long-term effects of the policy. |
| JEL: | O14 O25 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29263&r= |
| By: | Bart Hobijn; Ayşegül Şahin |
| Abstract: | We investigate the source, magnitude, and unevenness of the procyclical forces that shape labor force participation, i.e., the participation cycle, which are important for the implementation of the maximum employment mandate. We show that these forces can be analyzed in real time using a flow decomposition of the changes in the labor force participation rate. The decomposition reveals that the source of the participation cycle is fluctuations in job-loss and job-finding rates, rather than cyclical movements in labor force entry and exit rates. The magnitude of the participation cycle is large. Cyclical downward pressures on employment from participation are two-thirds that of unemployment. Moreover, the participation cycle delays the recovery in employment because it lags the unemployment cycle. It also amplifies the unevenness of the impact of recessions. Groups that see large increases in their unemployment rates also experience more pronounced participation cycles. Despite differences in their magnitudes, the source of the participation cycle is the same for all groups. Application of our method to the COVID-19 Recession suggests that, as of June 2021, the bulk of the drop in the participation rate since the onset of the pandemic is cyclical and that the cyclical recovery in participation likely will trail that of the unemployment rate. |
| JEL: | J20 J6 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29222&r= |
| By: | Minoru Higa (Simon Fraser University); Carlos Ospino (Labor Markets Consultant); Fernando Aragon (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | This paper takes a new look at the impact of COVID-19 on labor outcomes more than a year after the beginning of the pandemic. We use a labor survey from Lima, Peru, with monthly data from January 2019 up to June 2021. We corroborate the early dramatic impact of the pandemic documented in other countries. These initial effects attenuate over time, but persist and remain sizeable: even by mid-2021, there is a reduction of almost 20% in hours worked and labor income. Our findings highlight the limitation of policy changes and societal adaptations to ameliorate the economic impact of COVID-19. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp21-10&r= |
| By: | Gómez Múñoz, Wilman Arturo; Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban; Rhenals Monterrosa, Remberto |
| Abstract: | RESUMEN: La tendencia observada desde 1998 a la desinflación mundial y a que las inflaciones nacionales se estabilicen en niveles bajos obedece al comportamiento de la inflación de Estados Unidos. Esto es lo que podemos decir a la luz de resultados econométricos con cifras de frecuencia trimestral de Estados Unidos y de otros 30 países de varios continentes. En efecto, estos resultados son favorables a tal hipótesis y desfavorables a hipótesis alternativas que harían énfasis en las políticas monetarias nacionales o choques deflacionistas de origen “real†(no monetario). Adicionalmente, la evidencia empírica indica que, en general, las políticas monetarias nacionales han sido laxas, en el siguiente sentido: los hacedores de la política monetaria han aprovechado las fuerzas desinflacionarias (o deflacionarias) provenientes de Estados Unidos para ejecutar políticas laxas previendo algunos beneficios de esto (sobre la actividad económica u otros) sin temer que se haga evidente su costo en términos de una mayor inflación. ABSTRACT: The trend observed since 1998 towards global disinflation and for national inflation rates to stabilize at low levels is due to the behavior of inflation in the United States according to the econometric exercises reported in this paper with a quarterly frequency data from the United States and 30 other countries. Additionally, the empirical evidence indicates that, in general, national monetary policies have been lax, in the following sense: monetary policy makers have taken advantage of disinflationary (or deflationary) forces coming from the United States to execute lax policies anticipating some benefits from those without fearing that its cost in terms of higher inflation will become evident. |
| Keywords: | inflación, convergencia, economía abierta, política monetaria, modelo decointegración con datos en panel |
| JEL: | C12 C23 E31 E52 E65 F41 |
| Date: | 2021–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:019618&r= |
| By: | Tommaso Oliviero (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF); Min Park (University of Bristol); Hong Zou (University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | Theory offers two diverging views on the effect of ex-ante litigation risk on corporate cash holdings. To test the effect, this paper exploits the phase-by-phase introduction of securities class actions in Korea. Following the increase in litigation risk, firms significantly increase their cash holdings. The effects are stronger for firms with high operating cash flow volatility, no D&O insurance coverage, and tighter financial constraints. The results hold robustly in differences-in-differences and regression discontinuity designs. The causal estimates, together with the increase in corporate litigation risk worldwide, put forth a novel link, unexplored in the literature, between litigation risk and the secular increase in cash holdings. |
| Keywords: | Liquidity; cash holdings; litigation risk; difference-in-differences; regression discontinuity. |
| JEL: | G30 G32 K22 |
| Date: | 2021–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:623&r= |
| By: | Tareena Musaddiq; Kevin M. Stange; Andrew Bacher-Hicks; Joshua Goodman |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic drastically disrupted the functioning of U.S. public schools, potentially changing the relative appeal of alternatives such as homeschooling and private schools. Using longitudinal student-level administrative data from Michigan and nationally representative data from the Census Household Pulse Survey, we show how the pandemic affected families’ choices of school sector. We document four central facts. First, public school enrollment declined noticeably in fall 2020, with about 3 percent of Michigan students and 10 percent of kindergartners using other options. Second, most of this was driven by homeschooling rates jumping substantially, driven largely by families with children in elementary school. Third, homeschooling increased more where schools provided in-person instruction while private schooling increased more where instruction was remote, suggesting heterogeneity in parental concerns about children’s physical health and instructional quality. Fourth, kindergarten declines were highest among low income and Black families while declines in other grades were highest among higher income and White families, highlighting important heterogeneity by students’ existing attachment to public schools. Our results shed light on how families make schooling decisions and imply potential longer-run disruptions to public schools in the form of decreased enrollment and funding, changed composition of the student body, and increased size of the next kindergarten cohort. |
| JEL: | I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29262&r= |
| By: | Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University); Evzen Kocenda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Prague & CESifo, Munich & IOS, Regensburg); Viet Hoang Nguyen (Melbourne Institute for Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | The spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (Economic Journal, 2009, vol. 119, pp. 158-171) is widely used to measure connectedness in economic and financial networks. Abrupt increases in the spillover index are typically thought to result from systemic events, but evidence of the statistical significance of this relationship is largely absent from the literature. We develop a newbootstrap-based technique to evaluate the probability that the value of the spillover index changes over an arbitrary time period following an exogenously defined event. We apply our framework to the original dataset studied by Diebold and Yilmaz and obtain qualified support for the notion that the spillover index increases in a timely and statistically significant manner in the wake of systemic shocks. |
| Keywords: | Spillover index; systemic events; bootstrap-after-bootstrap procedure |
| JEL: | C32 C58 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2021_29&r= |
| By: | Sanyal, Anirban |
| Abstract: | The recent US-China trade war refreshed the memory of trade protectionism in the era of global integration. In this context, this paper analyzes the impact of higher trade tariffs imposed by the US and China on each other, on India, a large country having significant trade ties with both the US and China, yet not directly involved in the tariff war. Using product level data on exports and imports, the paper analyzes the implication of the tariff war on India in short run through the lens of trade diversion and identifies the differential effect of trade diversion across different product types. The analysis reveals a significant trade diversion to India from China at an aggregate level with trade elasticity of 0.5-0.7 due to US tariffs on China which points towards a substitution effect in products targeted by the US-China tariffs. Further, the paper observes a heterogeneous impact of the trade diversion across different product classifications. Particularly, India's export of easily substituted products like final goods, homogeneous goods and high elastic goods, intensified plausibly driven by higher tariffs imposed by the US on China. However the effect on these tariffs on India's import intensity remains mixed. |
| Keywords: | US-China Trade War,Trade Cost,Product Heterogeneity,Comparative Advantages |
| JEL: | F1 F12 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:242250&r= |
| By: | Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Sengupta, Rajeswari (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development and Research (IGIDR) Mumbai) |
| Abstract: | We analyse India's exchange rate regime through the prism of exchange market pressure. We estimate the various regimes that India's de-facto exchange rate has been through during the period from 2000 to 2020. We find four specific regimes of the Indian rupee differentiated by the degree of flexibility of the exchange rate. We document the manner in which EMP in India has either been resisted through foreign exchange market intervention, or relieved through exchange rate change, across these four de-facto exchange rate regimes. In particular, we find that after the 2008 global financial crisis the rupee-dollar exchange rate was relatively more flexible and the share of exchange rate in EMP absorption was the highest. After 2013 there was a change in the way the EMP was absorbed. The exchange rate was actively managed using spot as well as forward market intervention. We also find that the response of the RBI to EMP has been asymmetric. When there is pressure to appreciate, the RBI has typically responded by purchasing reserves. On the other hand, in the periods in which there has been pressure to depreciate, only a tiny fraction of reserves are used for resisting the pressure. Such pressure is absorbed by rupee depreciation. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate regime ; Forex intervention ; Reserves ; Exchangen market pressure ; Structural change |
| JEL: | E58 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:21/353&r= |
| By: | Drydakis, Nick |
| Abstract: | Utilizing two panel datasets covering the periods 2013-2014 and 2018-2019, the study examines whether social rejection, family acceptance, and economic conditions bear an association with self-rated physical and mental health of sexual minorities. Social rejection bears a negative association with physical and mental health. Family acceptance shares a positive association with physical and mental health. Periods characterized by worse economic conditions (2013-2014 versus 2018-2019) correlate with a decline in sexual minorities' physical and mental health. It is found that women, trans people, people without higher education degrees, unemployed people, and relatively poor people, experience worse physical and mental health than the corresponding reference categories. The study indicates that sexual minorities who experienced societal rejections, such as unfair treatment in educational, workplace environments, and/or services (public/health) prompted deteriorated physical and mental health. Sexual minorities who experienced acceptance from their families over their sexual orientation status, experienced better physical and mental health. Moreover, during periods of increased aggregate unemployment, the physical and mental health status of sexual minorities was deteriorated. Antidiscrimination policies help reduce homophobic incidents and positively impact sexual/gender identity minorities' progression, self-esteem, income, and well-being. Public health services should ensure that policies are inclusive of the physical and mental health needs of sexual/gender identity minority groups. Addressing financial hardships for minority population groups should form part of the policymakers' agenda. This is among the first international studies to examine whether, during a period of economic recession, sexual minorities experience deteriorated physical and mental health. |
| Keywords: | Sexual Orientation,Health,Mental Health,Minority Stress,Exclusion,Family,Economic Recession,LGBT |
| JEL: | J70 I14 O52 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:936&r= |
| By: | Robert P. Gilles; Lina Mallozzi; Roberta Messalli |
| Abstract: | We study a class of non-cooperative aggregative games -- denoted as \emph{social purpose games} -- in which the payoffs depend separately on a player's own strategy (individual benefits) and on a function of the strategy profile which is common to all players (social benefits) weighted by an individual benefit parameter. This structure allows for an asymmetric assessment of the social benefit across players. We show that these games have a potential and we investigate its properties. We investigate the payoff structure and the uniqueness of Nash equilibria and social optima. Furthermore, following the literature on partial cooperation, we investigate the leadership of a single coalition of cooperators while the rest of players act as non-cooperative followers. In particular, we show that social purpose games admit the emergence of a stable coalition of cooperators for the subclass of \emph{strict} social purpose games. Due to the nature of the partial cooperative leadership equilibrium, stable coalitions of cooperators reflect a limited form of farsightedness in their formation. As a particular application, we study the tragedy of the commons game. We show that there emerges a single stable coalition of cooperators to curb the over-exploitation of the resource. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.08471&r= |
| By: | Tareena Musaddiq; Kevin Stange; Andrew Bacher-Hicks; Joshua S. Goodman |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic drastically disrupted the functioning of U.S. public schools, potentially changing the relative appeal of alternatives such as homeschooling and private schools. Using longitudinal student-level administrative data from Michigan and nationally representative data from the Census Household Pulse Survey, we show how the pandemic affected families’ choices of school sector. We document four central facts. First, public school enrollment declined noticeably in fall 2020, with about 3 percent of Michigan students and 10 percent of kindergartners using other options. Second, most of this was driven by homeschooling rates jumping substantially, driven largely by families with children in elementary school. Third, homeschooling increased more where schools provided in-person instruction while private schooling increased more where instruction was remote, suggesting heterogeneity in parental concerns about children’s physical health and instructional quality. Fourth, kindergarten declines were highest among low income and Black families while declines in other grades were highest among higher income and White families, highlighting important heterogeneity by students’ existing attachment to public schools. Our results shed light on how families make schooling decisions and imply potential longer-run disruptions to public schools in the form of decreased enrollment and funding, changed composition of the student body, and increased size of the next kindergarten cohort. |
| JEL: | I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9298&r= |
| By: | K. Sudhir (Cowles Foundation and Yale School of Management); Seung Yoon Lee (Yale School of Management); Subroto Roy (Dept. of Marketing, University of New Haven) |
| Abstract: | Lookalike Targeting is a widely used model-based ad targeting approach that uses a seed database of individuals to identify matching "lookalikes" for targeted customer acquisition. An advertiser has to make two key choices: (1) who to seed on and (2) seed-match rank range. First, we assess if and how seeding by others’ journey stages impact clickthrough (upstream behavior desirable for brand marketing) and donation (downstream behavior desirable in performance marketing). Overall, we nd that lookalike targeting using other’s journeys can be effective third parties can indeed identify factors unobserved to the advertiser merely from others’ journey stage to improve targeting. Further, while it is sufficient to seed on upstream journey stages for brand marketing, seeding on more downstream stages improves performance marketing outcomes. Second, we assess the effectiveness of expanding the target audience with lower match ranks between seed and lookalikes. The drop in effectiveness with lower match rank range is much greater for performance marketing (donation) than for brand marketing (click-through). However, performance marketers can alleviate the reduction in ad effectiveness for low match ranks by making targeting more salient; but increasing salience has little impact for high match rank. Overall, by increasing salience, performance marketers can make acquisition cost comparable for high and low match ranks. |
| Keywords: | Digital advertising, Targeting, Algorithmic targeting, Lookalike targeting, Nonprofit marketing |
| JEL: | L31 M31 M37 C93 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2302&r= |
| By: | Patrick Bennett; Richard Blundell; Kjell G. Salvanes |
| Abstract: | Developing effective tools to address prime-aged high school dropouts is a key policy question. We leverage high quality Norwegian register data to examine the labour market outcomes of expanding access to adult workers and exploit a large policy reform which greatly enabled access to high school education for adults. Our focus is on women and the results show a large and significant increase in education investments with a strong rise in the rate of college completion, leading to higher earnings, increased employment, and decreased fertility. They also point to an effective policy to reduce the gender earnings gap. |
| Keywords: | adult education, returns to education, fertility, gender inequality |
| JEL: | I26 I28 J13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9306&r= |
| By: | Mohammad Nur Nobi |
| Abstract: | This study aims to assess the net benefit of the kaptai dam on the Karnafuli river in Kaptai, Chittagong, Bangladesh. Kaptai Dam, the only hydroelectricity power source in Bangladesh, provides only 5% electricity demand of Bangladesh. The Dam is located on the Karnafuli River at Kaptai in Rangamati District, 65 km upstream from Chittagong. It is an earth-fill or embankment dam with a reservoir with a water storage capacity of 11,000 skm. Though the Dam's primary purpose is to generate electricity, it became a reservoir of water used for fishing and tourism. To find the net benefit value and estimate the environmental costs and benefits, we considered the environmental net benefit from 1962 to 1997. We identify the costs of Kaptai Dam, including its establishment cost, operational costs, the costs of lives that have been lost due to conflicts, and environmental costs, including loss of biodiversity, loss of land uses, and loss of human displacements. Also, we assess the benefits of electricity production, earnings from fisheries production, and gain from tourism to Kaptai Lake. The findings show that the Dam contributes tremendous value to Bangladesh. As a source of hydroelectricity, the Kaptai Dam is a source of clean energy, and its value might have been worthy of this Dam produced a significant portion of the electricity. However, providing less than 5% of the national demand for electricity followed by various external and sensitive costs, the Dam hardly contributes to the Bangladesh economy. This study thus recommends that Bangladesh should look for other sources of clean energy that have no chances of eco-political conflicts. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05419&r= |
| By: | Jens Ludwig; Sendhil Mullainathan |
| Abstract: | Algorithms (in some form) are already widely used in the criminal justice system. We draw lessons from this experience for what is to come for the rest of society as machine learning diffuses. We find economists and other social scientists have a key role to play in shaping the impact of algorithms, in part through improving the tools used to build them. |
| JEL: | C01 C54 C55 D8 H0 K0 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29267&r= |
| By: | Pedro Salas-Rojo; Juan Gabriel Rodríguez |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how the inheritances received influence the distribution of wealth (financial, non-financial and total) in four developed ?but substantially different? countries: the United States, Canada, Italy and Spain. Following the inequality of opportunity literature, we first group individuals into types based on the inheritances received. Then, we estimate the between-types wealth inequality to approximate the part of overall wealth inequality explained by inheritances. After showing that traditional approaches lead to non-robust and arbitrary results, we apply Machine Learning methods to overcome this limitation. Among the available computing methods, we observe that the random forests is the most precise algorithm. By using this technique, we find that inheritances explain more than 65% of wealth inequality (Gini coefficient) in the US and Spain, and more than 40% in Italy and Canada. Finally, for the US and Italy, given the availability of parental education, we also include this circumstance in the analysis and study its interaction with inheritances. It is observed that the effect of inheritances is more prominent at the middle of the wealth distribution, while parental education is more important for the asset-poor. |
| Keywords: | Wealth inequality; inheritances; Machine Learning; inequality of opportunity; parental education |
| JEL: | C60 D31 D63 G51 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:lwswps:32&r= |
| By: | Laurent Taskin (Louvain School of Management Research Institute (ILSM) - Louvain School of Management Research Institute (ILSM)) |
| Abstract: | La gestion des ressources humaines est une discipline paradoxale. Alors qu'elle est considérée comme théoriquement pauvre-Watson (2007) rappelle qu'il n'y a pas à proprement parler de « théories de la GRH », mais bien que la GRH s'alimente de théories issues du management stratégique, de la psychologie, de la sociologie, de l'économie-elle occupe une place importante au sein d'autres disciplines telles que le management international, interculturel, stratégique ou le comportement organisationnel (Keenoy, 2009). De même, alors que la rhétorique propre à la GRH annonce une performance supérieure de la firme grâce à la mise en oeuvre de certaines pratiques (rassemblées sous le label des HPWS-High Performance Work Systems) alignées avec la stratégie d'entreprise, ce lien entre une fonction RH stratégique source d'avantage concurrentiel et la performance de l'entreprise demeure empiriquement non-établi ou, du moins, incertain (Taskin et Pichault, 2012 ; Truss, 2001). C'est à partir de ces paradoxes-et d'un scepticisme à l'égard des modalités et desseins de la GRH-qu'une critique des discours, pratiques, modèles, finalités et fondements de la gestion des ressources humaines s'est développée et affirmée à partir des années 1990. |
| Keywords: | Critical Management Studies,GRH -Gestion des ressources humaines,GRH renouvelée,Management Humain,Recherche,épistémologie,Critique |
| Date: | 2021–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03345556&r= |
| By: | Philippe Choné (CREST-ENSAE, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, France); Francis Kramarz (Department of Economics, Uppsala University, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | How are workers matched to their employing firms when workers have multi-dimensional skills and firms differ in the importance of each such skill for their production function? When workers' skills cannot be unpacked and sold separately on skill-specific markets, the implicit price of each skill varies across firms. The wage function is shown to be log-additive in worker's quality and a firm-specific effect that reflects the firm's chosen aggregate mix of skills and the associated equilibrium matching. When individual skills can be purchased thanks to new technologies and increasing access to outsourcing, temp agencies and other pro-market institutions, firms reinforce their hires of skills in which they have a comparative advantage yielding a more polarized matching equilibrium. Generalist workers - endowed with a balanced set of skills - are shown to benefit whereas specialists are negatively affected by markets opening. We also examine the case when workers or firms pay a fee to an unbundling platform. Then we discuss the empirical content of our model and present some empirical evidence based on this content, using Swedish data sources on workers' skills and their employing firm and occupation. We conclude by pointing connections between our contribution and various literatures. |
| Keywords: | bundling; multidimensional skills; matching ; sorting; heterogeneous firms; polarization. |
| JEL: | D20 D40 D51 J20 J24 J30 |
| Date: | 2021–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2021-10&r= |
| By: | Nathalia Espinosa (UDI - Universidad de Investigación y Desarrollo); Jhon Edinson Rico Tobacia (UDI - Universidad de Investigación y Desarrollo) |
| Abstract: | This document presents a proposal on the labor and occupational profile of people between 30 and 40 years old residing in the city of Bucaramanga and its objective is to analyze both the labor and occupational profile, describing the types of companies, labor and occupational activity in the city, likewise seeks to know the activities and occupations performed by people of that age range and finally to categorize the needs demanded by different types of companies, compared to the offer that people in the city stand out. To carry it out, a mixed methodology was defined, integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches in the collection of information that was carried out through primary and secondary sources and the application of two surveys: the first to people between 30 to 40 years old and the second to companies in the city. In total, 384 people and 381 companies were surveyed, the industrial sector data was largely taken from a secondary source, which was a database provided by the Bucaramanga Chamber of Commerce. In the investigation, it was found that most of the companies are micro-enterprises, in terms of the sector, the one with the highest participation is tertiary, the positions demanded most of them belong to the commercial, administrative, accounting, and financial area, the demanded age ranges It is the age of 30 to 40 years. In the case of people, most of the respondents have academic training, whether they are a bachelor, technician, technologist or professional, this focuses on administrative and accounting areas, the level of experience is mostly greater than 12 months and They hold positions with commercial functions, mostly in the commercial area and the production area. |
| Abstract: | El presente documento expone una propuesta sobre el perfil laboral y ocupacional de las personas entre 30 y 40 años residentes en la ciudad de Bucaramanga y tiene como objetivo analizar tanto el perfil laboral como ocupacional, describiendo los tipos de empresas, actividad laboral y ocupacional en la ciudad, así mismo busca conocer las actividades y ocupaciones que desempeñan las personas de dicho rango de edad y por último categorizar las necesidades demandadas por los diferentes tipos de empresas, frente a la oferta que destacan las personas de la ciudad. Para su realización se definió una metodología mixta, integrando enfoques cualitativos y cuantitativos en la recolección de la información que se llevó a cabo a través de fuentes primarias y secundarias y la aplicación de dos encuestas: la primera a personas entre los 30 a 40 años y la segunda a las empresas de la ciudad. En total se encuestaron 384 personas y 381 empresas, los datos del sector industrial fueron tomados en gran parte de una fuente secundaria que fue una base de datos suministrada por la Cámara de Comercio de Bucaramanga. En la investigación se encontró que la mayoría de las empresas son microempresas, en cuanto al sector, el de mayor participación es el terciario, los cargos demandados la mayoría de ellos pertenecen al área comercial, administrativa, contable y financiera, los rangos de edad demandado es la edad de 30 a 40 años. En el caso de las personas la mayor parte de los encuestados cuenta con formación académica, ya sea siendo bachiller, técnico, tecnólogo o profesional, esta se enfoca en áreas administrativas y contables, el nivel de experiencia en su mayoría es superior a 12 meses y desempeñan en cargos con funciones comerciales en su mayoría en el área comercial y el área de producción. |
| Keywords: | Job Description,Labour demand,professional occupation,academic profiles,occupation,Descripción del empleo,demanda laboral,ocupación,perfiles académicos,profesión |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03344308&r= |
| By: | Baumann, Ursel; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Westermann, Thomas; Riggi, Marianna; Bobeica, Elena; Meyler, Aidan; Böninghausen, Benjamin; Fritzer, Friedrich; Trezzi, Riccardo; Jonckheere, Jana; Kulikov, Dmitry; Popova, Dilyana; Pert, Sulev; Michail, Nektarios; Paloviita, Maritta; Brázdik, František; Pönkä, Harri; Bess, Mikkel; Vilmi, Lauri; Jørgensen, Casper; Robert, Pierre-Antoine; Al-Haschimi, Alexander; Gmehling, Philipp; Bańbura, Marta; Hartmann, Matthias; Charalampakis, Evangelos; Menz, Jan-Oliver; Hartwig, Benny; Schupp, Fabian; Hutchinson, John; Speck, Christian; Paredes, Joan; Volz, Ute; Reiche, Lovisa; Bragoudakis, Zacharias; Tirpák, Marcel; Kasimati, Evangelia; Tengely, Veronika; Łyziak, Tomasz; Tagliabracci, Alex; Stanisławska, Ewa; Bessonovs, Andrejs; Iskrev, Nikolay; Krasnopjorovs, Olegs; Gavura, Miroslav; Reichenbachas, Tomas; Damjanović, Milan; Colavecchio, Roberta; Maletic, Matjaz; Galati, Gabriele; Leiva, Danilo; Kearney, Ide; Stockhammar, Pär |
| Abstract: | This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem’s Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation expectations, with a focus on the degree of anchoring, and (ii) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households’ and firms’ inflation expectations that ultimately matter in the expectations channel, data limitations have meant that in practice the focus of analysis has been on surveys of professional forecasters and on market-based indicators. Regarding the anchoring of inflation expectations, this paper considers a number of metrics: the level of inflation expectations, the responsiveness of longer-term inflation expectations to shorter-term developments, and the degree of uncertainty. Different metrics can provide conflicting signals about the scale and timing of potential unanchoring, which underscores the importance of considering all of them. Overall, however, these metrics suggest that in the period since the global financial and European debt crises, longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area have become less well anchored. Regarding the role measures of inflation expectations can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it comes to their predictive power, both market-based and survey-based measures are found to be more accurate than statistical benchmarks, but do not systematically outperform each other. Beyond their role as standalone forecasts, inflation expectations bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection exercises performed using structural models. ... JEL Classification: D84, E31, E37, E52 |
| Keywords: | anchoring, forecasting, Inflation expectations, macroeconomics, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021264&r= |
| By: | Schleich, Joachim; Schuler, Johannes; Pfaff, Matthias; Frank, Regine |
| Abstract: | Potential environmental benefits of green tariffs may be mitigated if households increase electricity consumption after they subscribe to green tariffs. Using metered data of household electricity consumption from a large provider of green electricity in Germany, our quasi-experimental analysis finds that household switching to a green tariff leads to a non-monetary renewable rebound effect of around 8.5 %. Further, our findings imply that this renewable rebound effect is persistent over at least four years. These findings may be explained by moral licensing effects which induce households to permanently change their habitual behaviours and/or to acquire additional electricity-consuming technologies. Thus, failure to account for a renewable rebound in policy evaluation may lead to systematically underestimate the costs of achieving energy and climate targets. |
| Keywords: | rebound,renewable rebound,green tariffs,moral licensing |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s072021&r= |
| By: | Miriam Kohl; Philipp M. Richter |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of a unilateral reform of the redistribution policy in an economy open to international trade. We set up a general equilibrium trade model with heterogeneous agents allowing for country asymmetries. We show that under international trade compared to autarky, a unilateral tax increase leads to a less pronounced decline in aggregate real income in the reforming country, while income inequality is reduced to a larger extent for sufficiently small initial tax rates. We highlight as a key mechanism a tax-induced reduction in the market size of the reforming country relative to its trading partner, resulting in a firm selection effect towards exporting. From the perspective of a non-reforming trading partner, the unilateral redistribution policy reform resembles a unilateral increase in trade costs leading to a deterioration of terms-of-trade and a decline in both aggregate real income and inequality. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, redistribution, international trade, heterogeneous firms |
| JEL: | D31 F12 F16 H24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9296&r= |
| By: | Matheus R. Grasselli; Alexander Lipton |
| Abstract: | We review different classes of cryptocurrencies with emphasis on their economic properties. Pure-asset coins such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are characterized by not being a liability of any economic agent and most resemble commodities such as gold. Central bank digital currencies, at the other end of the economic spectrum, are liabilities of a Central Bank and most resemble cash. In between, there exist a range of so-called stable coins, with varying degrees of economic complexity. We use balance sheet operations to highlight the properties of each class of cryptocurrency and their potential uses. In addition, we propose the basic structure for a macroeconomic model incorporating all the different types of cryptocurrencies under consideration. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10177&r= |
| By: | Alogoskoufis, Spyros; Dunz, Nepomuk; Emambakhsh, Tina; Hennig, Tristan; Kaijser, Michiel; Kouratzoglou, Charalampos; Muñoz, Manuel A.; Parisi, Laura; Salleo, Carmelo |
| Abstract: | Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humankind this century. If left unchecked, it is likely to result in more frequent and severe climatic events, with the potential to cause substantial disruption to our economies, businesses and livelihoods in the coming decades. Yet the associated risks remain poorly understood, as climate shocks differ from the financial shocks observed during previous crises. This paper describes the ECB’s economy-wide climate stress test, which has been developed to assess the resilience of non-financial corporates (NFCs) and euro area banks to climate risks, under various assumptions in terms of future climate policies. This stress test comprises three main pillars: (i) climate-specific scenarios to project climate and macroeconomic conditions over the next 30 years; (ii) a comprehensive dataset that combines climate and financial information for millions of companies worldwide and approximately 1,600 consolidated euro area banks; (iii) a novel set of climate-specific models to capture the direct and indirect transmission channels of climate risk drivers for firms and banks. JEL Classification: C53, C55, G21, G38, Q54 |
| Keywords: | climate scenarios, climate stress-test, physical risk, transition risk |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021281&r= |
| By: | Kangogo, Moses (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Volkov, Vladimir (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania) |
| Abstract: | Until recently, there has been a growing research focusing on how to predict systemic risks to minimise the recurrence of financial crises, while the importance of understanding how network exposure contributes to the spread of financial distress in the financial system has been largely underestimated. This paper investigates whether network exposure contributes to both shock transmission and absorption. We utilise data from 45 economies and our findings show that both network intensity and interconnectedness in the financial system have impact on increasing network exposure. We also demonstrate how to estimate network intensity in the financial system. Our results indicate that an increased network intensity parameter is associated to period when the financial system is under stress. |
| Keywords: | Financial markets, financial networks, financial stability |
| JEL: | G15 G10 G01 C21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:37326&r= |
| By: | Lina M Cortés; Juan F. Rendón; Javier Perote |
| JEL: | C14 C22 C54 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:019593&r= |
| By: | Julien CALAS; Etienne ESPAGNE; Antoine GODIN |
| Abstract: | In recent seminal studies for France and the Netherlands, biodiversity has been proven a significant source of financial vulnerability, both in terms of potential physical impacts, dependence to ecosystem services and in the face of future tighter protection policies.Applying similar methodologies for developing and emerging economies requires:- Collecting specific data and making it accessible- Incorporating ecosystemic analysis and scenarios into assessment models- Developing more comprehensive and adapted biodiversity metrics and taxonomyWidening the scope of ecological risks beyond financial variables to social and economic aspects. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2021–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en13056&r= |
| By: | Edgar Caicedo-García; Ramón Hernández-Ortega; Nicolás Martínez-Cortés |
| Abstract: | Este documento ofrece un ejercicio que cuantifica el máximo impacto posible, en términos contables, que tendrían sobre el nivel del IPC algunos alivios de precios decretados por el Gobierno de Colombia al inicio de la pandemia del Covid-19. Dicho impacto no necesariamente coincidiría con las cifras oficiales del IPC debido a la presencia de múltiples factores que también inciden sobre estos precios y a algunos supuestos realizados. La mayoría de estos alivios se encuentran vigentes y expirarán entre agosto de este año y finales del año 2022. El ejercicio implica estimar el nivel de impuestos indirectos cobrados en la canasta del consumidor y supone que los alivios contemplados se transmiten plenamente al IPC. Por otro lado, esta misma metodología se aplica para intentar cuantificar el efecto de los días sin IVA. Los resultados sugieren que los alivios contemplados tienen un efecto máximo cercano al 1,9% sobre el nivel del IPC total y que el impacto inflacionario del día sin IVA es pequeño, bajo el supuesto de que la toma de precios por parte del DANE es de alta frecuencia. **** ABSTRACT: This document offers an exercise that quantifies on the Colombia CPI the máximum possible impact in accounting terms of some price reliefs decreed by the national government. This impact would not necessarily coincide with the official CPI figures, due to the presence of multiple factors that also affect these prices and some assumptions. Most of these reliefs will expire between August of 2020 and the end of 2022. The exercise involves approximations of the tax level of the consumer basket and assumes that the reliefs are fully transmitted to the CPI. On the other hand, this same methodology was applied to quantify the effect of “day without VAT” events. The results suggest that the reliefs sum a máximum effect close to 1,9% on the total CPI. On the other hand, we found that the influence of the day without VAT is small, under the assumption that DANE collects prices with high frequency in the month. |
| Keywords: | Inflación, alivios sobre precios, Covid-19, Inflation, price reliefs, Covid-19 |
| JEL: | E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1172&r= |
| By: | Ngo, Thanh Quang |
| Abstract: | This study measures the environmental regulation effect and pattern of carbon emission and energy efficiency through data envelopment analysis and econometric estimation. One of the most important ways to achieve a green transition is promoting technical progress through environmental regulation. Though China has witnessed rapid economic growth over the last two decades, the country can improve it further through adopting sustainable green energy and establishing more energy-efficient industries to strike a good balance between economic and social developments. The oil and carbon dioxide emission performances form the most important metrics. This study uses panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2017 to assess the effect of environmental regulation on energy production. The nonradial directional distance function (NDDF) is used to measure the total factor energy efficiency index (TFEEI). The panel system GMM model, which can effectively address endogenous problems and regional variability, is utilized to research the nonlinear relationship between environmental regulations and EEI under various environmental regulations to study it. The findings reveal a considerably modest total average EEI amount for energy-intensive industries, averaging between 0.55 and 0.58, which is way below the ideal value (i.e., 1). Furthermore, the results of the dynamic panel data model revealed a significant U-shaped relationship between China’s EEI and environmental regulation. The results show that as the values of market-based environmental regulations (MERs) and command and control environmental regulations (CCERs) exceed the corresponding levels, the impact of environmental regulation on the TFEEI increases gradually. This study will aid policymakers in better understanding the efficacy of different levels of environmental regulations to make more educated decisions. |
| Keywords: | Total factor energy efficiency; High energy-intensive industries; Environmental regulation; Nonradial directional distance function |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109674&r= |
| By: | Shreya Biswas |
| Abstract: | Using data from World Bank Enterprises Survey 2014, we find that having a female owner in India increases firm innovation probability using both input and output indicators of innovation. We account for possible endogeneity of female owner variable using a two stage instrumental variable probit model. We find that the positive effect of female owner variable is observed in the sub-samples of firms with more access to internal funding, young firms and firms located in regions with no or less crime This study highlights the need to promote female entrepreneurship as a potential channel for promoting firm innovation in India. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09515&r= |
| By: | Allegra Kabamba Mbuyi (UNIKIN - Université de Kinshasa); Kondolo Kojack |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the impact of monetary and fiscal policy coordination on the stability of the general price level in the context of the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1990 to 2019. Our empirical investigation focuses on the DRC between 1990 and 2019, and uses the VAR model. The results show the existence of this coordination for a few years. In addition, this coordination has positive effects on the stability of the general price level. This evidence suggests that the Central Bank of Congo (BCC) must work hard with the Congolese government to ensure general price level stability. |
| Abstract: | La présente étude évalue l'impact de la coordination des politiques monétaire et budgétaire sur la stabilité du niveau général des prix dans le contexte de la République Démocratique du Congo de 1990 à 2019. Notre investigation empirique porte sur la RDC entre 1990 et 2019, et fait appel au modèle VAR. Les résultats ont montré l'existence de cette coordination durant quelques années. Aussi, cette coordination présente des effets positifs sur la stabilité du niveau général des prix. Ces preuves suggèrent que la Banque Centrale du Congo (BCC) doit travailler d'arrache-pied avec le gouvernement congolais pour assurer la stabilité du niveau général des prix. |
| Keywords: | "Policy mix coordination","fiscal policy","monetary policy","VAR model","DRC","Coordination du Policy mix","Politique budgétaire","Politique monétaire","modèle VAR","RDC". |
| Date: | 2021–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03341814&r= |
| By: | Marcus Hagedorn |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an equilibrium theory of nominal exchange rates, which offers a new perspective on various issues in open economy macroeconomics. The nominal exchange rate and portfolio choices are jointly determined in equilibrium, thus providing a new approach to overcoming the indeterminacy results in Kareken and Wallace (1981). The distinctive features of this theory are that the nominal exchange rate is determined in international financial markets, that the risk premium and UIP deviations are fully endogenous equilibrium objects and that the real exchange rate inherits its properties from the nominal exchange rate. In terms of policy, this novel theory implies that a country with an exchange rate peg and free asset mobility faces a tetralemma and not a trilemma, because it loses not only monetary policy independence but also fiscal policy independence. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate, determinacy, incomplete markets, monetary and fiscal policy, international asset flows |
| JEL: | D52 E31 E43 E52 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9290&r= |
| By: | Pedro Bordalo; Nicola Gennaioli; Andrei Shleifer |
| Abstract: | We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their prominence. The Bordalo, Gennaioli and Shleifer (2012, 2013, 2020) models of salience show how bottom up attention can distort economic choice by distracting decision makers from their immediate goals or from certain choice attributes. We show that this approach explains many puzzles: separately treated departures from “rationality” such as probability weighting, menu effects, reference point effects, and framing, emerge as distinct manifestations of the same principle of bottom up attention to salient stimuli. We highlight new predictions and discuss open conceptual questions, as well as potential applications in finance, industrial organization, advertising, and politics. |
| JEL: | D0 D03 D81 D90 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29274&r= |
| By: | Eduardo Fe; David Gill; Victoria Prowse |
| Abstract: | Classification- |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pur:prukra:1329&r= |
| By: | Anthony E. Brockwell |
| Abstract: | We review some fundamental concepts of investment from a mathematical perspective, concentrating specifically on fractional-Kelly portfolios, which allocate a fraction of wealth to a growth-optimal portfolio while the remainder collects (or pays) interest at a risk-free rate. We elucidate a coherent continuous-parameter time-series framework for analysis of these portfolios, explaining relationships between Sharpe ratios, growth rates, and leverage. We see how Kelly's criterion prescribes the same leverage as Markowitz mean-variance optimization. Furthermore, for fractional Kelly portfolios, we state a simple distributional relationship between portfolio Sharpe ratio, the fractional coefficient, and portfolio log-returns. These results provide critical insight into realistic expectations of growth for different classes of investors, from individuals to quantitative trading operations. We then illustrate application of the results by analyzing performance of various bond and equity mixes for an investor. We also demonstrate how the relationships can be exploited by a simple method-of-moments calculation to estimate portfolio Sharpe ratios and levels of risk deployment, given a fund's reported returns. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10814&r= |
| By: | Cole, Stephen J. (Department of Economics Marquette University); Huh, Sungjun (Department of Economics Marquette University) |
| Abstract: | Housing markets are closely related to monetary policy. This paper studies the link between housing frictions and the effectiveness of forward guidance. A housing collateral constraint and forward guidance shocks are incorporated into a standard medium-scale New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. Our main results produce a number of important implications. First, financial frictions emanating from the housing market dampen the effectiveness of forward guidance on the economy. Second, forward guidance has asymmetric effects on the welfare of lenders and borrowers when housing frictions increase. Housing frictions also attenuate the effect of forward guidance at the zero lower bound. Finally, this article provides a solution to "forward guidance puzzle" of Del Negro et al. (2012). Thus, policymakers should consider housing frictions when examining the effects of forward guidance on the economy. |
| Keywords: | forward guidance, financial frictions, housing collateral, zero lower ground |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E52 R21 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrq:wpaper:2021-07&r= |
| By: | Yaya, OlaOluwa S.; Vo, Xuan Vinh; Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. |
| Abstract: | This study uses the recently developed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model-based unit root test of Narayan et al. (2016) to examine the stock market efficiency of 19 Asian countries, using daily prices. The model flexibly accounts for heteroskedasticity and two structural breaks, the presence of which can lead to inaccurate results if neglected. Our results disclose the stock markets of 14 countries as inefficient following the rejection of the unit root null hypothesis. However, the stock markets of China, Hong Kong, Japan and the Korea Republic are adjudged efficient. We further extend the model to accommodate a maximum of five breaks to check the robustness of our results to higher breaks. We observe that the results are largely consistent except for Lebanon and Singapore. For completeness, we compare the results with those of conventional GARCH models that do not account for structural breaks and discover differing results for some countries. Hence, the role of structural breaks is not negligible in assessing market efficiency. Future studies should also incorporate heteroskedasticity and structural breaks in their modelling framework to obtain accurate results. |
| Keywords: | Stock market efficiency; GARCH; Unit root; Structural breaks; Asia |
| JEL: | C22 G01 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109828&r= |
| By: | McCully, Brett |
| Abstract: | Nearly $2 trillion of illegally trafficked goods flow across international borders every year, generating violence and other social costs along the way. Some have controversially linked illegal trafficking to immigrants, especially immigrants without legal status. In this paper, I use novel data on nearly 10,000 confiscations of illegal drugs in Spain to study how immigrants and immigration policy affect the pattern and scale of illegal drug trafficking. To identify the causal effect of immigrants on trafficking, I construct an instrumental variable that interacts variation in total immigrant inflows into Spain across origin countries with the fraction of immigrants inflowing into a province. I find that a 10% increase in the population of immigrants from a given origin country relative to the mean raises the likelihood of illegal importing drugs from that origin country by 0.8 percentage points. Moreover, immigrants without legal status drive illegal drug imports, while authorized immigrants drive exports. To better understand the role of legal status, I exploit an extraordinary regularization of nearly half a million immigrants in 2005. Event study estimates suggest that granting immigrants legal status results in a decline in drug imports. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Drug Trafficking, Trade, Legal Stutus |
| JEL: | F14 F22 J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109610&r= |
| By: | Zeling Zhong (LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School); Christine Balagué (CONNECT - Consommateur Connecté dans la Société Numérique - DEFI - Département Droit, Economie et Finances - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in smart connected objects as part of the widespread IT consumerization, influencing our daily lives. Nevertheless, digitizing physical things offers an abundance of objects apparently similar but characterized by some features that the average consumers fail to perceive and to appropriate. Due to the phenomenon of users' disengagement with IoT products, consumers need a tool to guide them in choosing the most suitable smart connected object to satisfy their purposes. The current research aims to understand better smart connected objects by proposing a taxonomy based on levels of providing experience enhancements and relevance for effective uses as appropriated by consumers. The user-centered taxonomy allowed us to formulate recommendations for managers and practitioners in the market for smart connected objects aimed at the public, specific to each category of smart connected objects. |
| Abstract: | Depuis ces dernières années, les objets connectés suscitent un intérêt croissant dans le cadre de la consumérisation des TIC, influençant notre vie quotidienne. Néanmoins, la numérisation des objets physiques offre une abondance d'objets apparemment similaires mais caractérisés par certains attributs que les consommateurs ne parviennent pas à s'apercevoir et à s'approprier. En raison du phénomène de désengagement, les consommateurs ont besoin d'un outil pour les guider dans le choix de l'objet connecté le plus appropriable pour répondre à leurs besoins. Cette recherche vise à mieux comprendre les objets connectés en proposant une taxonomie en fonction des niveaux d'amélioration de l'expérience et de la pertinence pour des usages effectifs tels que appropriés. Cette taxonomie centrée sur l'utilisateur nous a permis de formuler des recommandations aux acteurs du marché des objets connectés à destination du grand public, spécifique à chaque catégorie d'objets connectés. |
| Keywords: | Smart connected object,Taxonomy,Effective uses,Objet connecté,Taxonomie,Usages effectifs |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03341699&r= |
| By: | Philip J. Grossman (Monash University); Jonathan Levy (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Warm glow is the satisfaction an individual receives from being “seen†to be doing their part to help others. The satisfaction derives from looking good to themselves (self-image) or because they want to look good to others (social image). Evidence suggests approximately 50% of individuals are to some extent motivated by warm glow. The question remains, are these individuals giving to enhance their self-image or to enhance their social image. We conduct an online experiment to determine the importance of self-image and social image with respect to warm-glow giving. Our results suggest that at the extensive margin, warm-glow giving is primarily driven by self-image, not social image. At the intensive margin, social image significantly increases average giving. |
| Keywords: | self-image, social image, altruism, warm glow, experiment |
| JEL: | C90 D91 H40 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2021-04&r= |
| By: | Umut Keskin (Istanbul Bilgi University); M. Remzi Sanver (LAMSADE - Laboratoire d'analyse et modélisation de systèmes pour l'aide à la décision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); H. Berkay Tosunlu (LAMSADE - Laboratoire d'analyse et modélisation de systèmes pour l'aide à la décision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | A social choice rule (SCR) is monotonic if raising a single alternative in voters' preferences while leaving the rankings otherwise unchanged is never detrimental to the prospects for winning of the raised alternative. Monotonicity is rather weak but well-known to discriminate against scoring elimination rules, such as plurality with a run off and single transferable vote. We define the minimal monotonic extension of an SCR as its unique monotonic supercorrespondence that is minimal with respect to set inclusion. After showing the existence of the concept, we characterize, for every non-monotonic SCR, the alternatives that its minimal monotonic extension must contain. As minimal monotonic extensions can entail coarse SCRs, we address the possibility of refining them without violating monotonicity provided that this refinement does not diverge from the original SCR more than the divergence prescribed by the minimal monotonic extension itself. We call these refinements monotonic adjustments and identify conditions over SCRs that ensure unique monotonic adjustments that are minimal with respect to set inclusion. As an application of our general findings, we consider plurality with a runoff, characterize its minimal monotonic extension as well as its (unique) minimal monotonic adjustment. Interestingly, this adjustment is not coarser than plurality with a runoff itself, hence we suggest it as a monotonic substitute to plurality with a runoff. |
| Keywords: | monotonicity,minimal monotonic extension,minimal monotonic adjustment,plurality with a runoff,voting rule |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03250759&r= |
| By: | Kaitila, Ville |
| Abstract: | Abstract We assess the development of greenhouse gas emissions from households’ own transport, mainly motoring, up until 2050. The share of electric cars in new registrations has recently started to increase markedly, so the outlook in this respect has clearly changed from a couple of years ago. We make three scenarios for the development of the average emissions of newly registered passenger cars, use historical development in setting the future scrapping rate and average age of the car fleet, and take into account the increase in the obligation to mix biofuels in the 2020s. According to the scenarios, the development of greenhouse gas emissions caused by households’ own transport will support the achievement of Finland’s national carbon neutrality target relatively well providing current development continues. In the baseline scenario, emissions will decrease by a total of 45 per cent between 2008 and 2030. The rate of decline is accelerating all the time as the emissions of newly registered cars decrease and the old car fleet with clearly higher emissions is scrapped. However, the development should be supported by ensuring adequate construction of households’ own and public electric-vehicle-charging infrastructure. In addition, household choices could be influenced, for example, by steepening the CO2 progression of car and vehicle taxes, which would increase household incentives to switch to lower-emission cars. At a minimum, at least inflation adjustments must also be made in the taxation of car ownership and use. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions, Passenger cars, Transportation |
| JEL: | D12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:99&r= |
| By: | Laura Liu (Indiana University); Mikkel Plagborg-Møller (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | We develop a generally applicable full-information inference method for heterogeneous agent models, combining aggregate time series data and repeated cross sections of micro data. To handle unobserved aggregate state variables that affect cross-sectional distributions, we compute a numerically unbiased estimate of the model-implied likelihood function. Employing the likelihood estimate in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, we obtain fully efficient and valid Bayesian inference. Evaluation of the micro part of the likelihood lends itself naturally to parallel computing. Numerical illustrations in models with heterogeneous households or firms demonstrate that the proposed full-information method substantially sharpens inference relative to using only macro data, and for some parameters micro data is essential for identification. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian inference, data combination, heterogeneous agent models |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2021001&r= |
| By: | Price V. Fishback; Jonathan Rose; Kenneth A. Snowden; Thomas Storrs |
| Abstract: | We show that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), from its inception in the 1930s, did not insure mortgages in low income urban neighborhoods where the vast majority of urban Black Americans lived. The agency evaluated neighborhoods using block-level information collected by New Deal relief programs and the Census in many cities. The FHA’s exclusionary pattern predates the advent of the infamous maps later made by the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) and shows little change after the drafting of those maps. In contrast, the HOLC itself broadly loaned to such neighborhoods and to Black homeowners. We conclude that the HOLC’s redlining maps had little effect on the geographic distribution of either program’s mortgage market activity, and that the FHA crafted and implemented its own redlining methodology prior to the HOLC. |
| JEL: | G21 G22 G28 G5 N22 N42 N92 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29244&r= |
| By: | Stephen R. Boucher; Michael R. Carter; Jon Einar Flatnes; Travis J. Lybbert; Jonathan G. Malacarne; Paswel Marenya; Laura A. Paul |
| Abstract: | Risk often inhibits on-farm investment by smallholder farmers. Recent evidence indicates that index insurance and stress tolerant seeds can separately and partially offset this risk effect. In this study, we explore whether the complementarities between these two risk management technologies can be harnessed to underwrite a resilient, high productivity small farm sector. Utilizing a multi-year randomized control trial that spanned two countries and exploits natural variation in weather shocks, we find that drought tolerant maize seeds mitigate the impact of mid-season drought. Compared to farms in control villages, where shocks have persistent effects that reduce future investment and productivity, those with access to both drought tolerant seeds and multi-peril index insurance show greater resilience and immediately bounce back from shocks. Experiential learning is key to realizing this resilience effect: Farmers who experienced shocks intensify their subsequent use of the technologies and exhibit what we call resilience-plus, while those who did not experience shocks disadopt. Together these findings showcase important complementarities between these risk mitigating technologies and the crucial role learning plays in tapping their potential stochastic and dynamic benefits to small farmers. |
| JEL: | O12 O55 Q12 Q14 Q16 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29234&r= |
| By: | Michael Thaler |
| Abstract: | Numerous experiments have found that when people receive signals that would lead a Bayesian to substantially revise beliefs, they underinfer. This paper experimentally considers inference from a wider range of signal strengths and finds that subjects overinfer when signals are sufficiently weak. A model of cognitive imprecision adapted to study misperceptions about signal strength explains the data well. As the theory predicts, subjects with more experience, greater cognitive sophistication, and lower variance in answers, infer less from weak signals and infer more from strong signals. The results also relate misperceptions to demand for information and inference from multiple signals. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09871&r= |
| By: | Ivana Radic (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Mechthild Donner (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Keywords: | Olive sector,Mediterranean region,agricultural waste,olive chain,multi-actor approach,bioeconomy,circular economy,by-product |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03346763&r= |
| By: | Jared C. Carbone (Colorado School of Mines) |
| Abstract: | In simple models of pollution regulation, both emission taxes and systems of tradable emission permits are minimum-cost methods of achieving a target level of pollution reduction. In this paper, I identify a source of asymmetry between permits and taxes based on the expectation a nation holds for the effect of its policy on interntational prices and pollution levels. Taxes allow for flexibility in the quantity of pollution produced and permits do not. In the context of international pollution policy, this means that a country may reasonably anticipate no foreign emission response to domestic abatement changes when the world’s abatement programs are denominated in terms of permits because permits cap aggregate pollution levels. The same is not true in tax-based regimes. Thus, tax or permit-based plans with the same regulatory goals will result in different equilibrium emission reductions, a different cost-benefit balance, and a different regional distribution of welfare impacts. The analysis provides an analytical description of the incentives faced by countries in each of these regimes and a numerical characterization of equilibrium outcomes for greenhouse gas emissions in a calibrated, general equilibrium model. |
| Keywords: | climate change, general equilibrium, tradable permits, carbon tax |
| JEL: | D58 F18 F42 Q52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp202101&r= |
| By: | Armanda Cetrulo; Angelica Sbardella; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses medium-term labour market trends from 1983 to 2018 in Italy relying on the 'Rilevazione dei contratti di lavoro' from INPS archive which provides information on average salaries by professional category, age, gender, and geographical origin. Within an overall pattern of exacerbated inequalities, documented by means of different indicators, the empirical analysis highlights how the within-component of the wage variation prevails in the gender, age and geographical dimensions. By contrast, the between-component in terms of professional categories (trainees, blue-collar jobs, white-collar jobs, middle managers, executives) is the only between-variation attribute to prevail, corroborating the role played by class schema in explaining wage inequality. Regression-based inequality estimations confirm the role played by social classes. Stratification of wage losses is recorded being largely concentrated among blue-collar professional categories, women, youth, and in the Southern regions. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; wages; occupations. |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/29&r= |
| By: | Carl Gaigné (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Karine Latouche (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stéphane Turolla (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit. |
| Keywords: | Productivité,Competitivité hors-prix,Coûts d’accès aux marchés |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03346304&r= |
| By: | Borja Larrain; Gordon M. Phillips; Giorgo Sertsios; Francisco Urzúa |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of going public using a unique panel of firms in 16 European countries for which we observe financial data before and after firms' initial-public-offering (IPO) attempts. We compare firms that complete their IPO with firms that withdraw their IPO. We instrument the going public decision using prior market returns. We find that firm profitability goes up after going public—contrary to previous results in the literature. We also find an post-IPO expansion in the number of subsidiaries and countries in which IPO firms operate. Our results are stronger for firms in financially dependent industries and in countries with higher investor protection consistent with going public relaxing financial constraints and with a stronger impact when agency conflicts are lower. Overall, our results are consistent with going public inducing a shift towards a strategy of commercialization to increase profitability. |
| JEL: | G32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29219&r= |
| By: | Hsu, Ching-Chi; Ngo, Quang-Thanh; Chien, FengSheng; Li, Li; Mohsin, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | This research measures the relationship between green innovation and the performance of financial development by using an econometric estimation during the year of 2000 to 2018 in 28 Chinese provinces. It is intended to explore the relative role of green technological innovation in driving green financial development in the west and central China, as well as how it influences economic growth in these regions. Ordinary least square (OLS) framework was utilized in mainland China to perform empirical studies by using an econometric estimation. This study claims that China has adopted research-based education system, while those for economic growth and expenditure in the regions while the innovation parts results shows that the tertiary education were 12.42% and 13.53% versus the 10.50% and 10.6% in the eastern area. The research-based education increases the patents in green innovation and boosts the environmental policy. The financial development led to green technological development and innovation. Green innovation and financial development decrease the emissions, and it is apparent that as environmental regulations stimulate technical development, the superiority of human resources increases. The findings indicate that green financing reduces short-term lending, thus limiting clean energy overinvestment, while the long-term loans have little impact on renewable energy overinvestment, and the intermediary effect is unmaintainable. Meanwhile, the green financial growth will reduce renewable energy overinvestment and increase renewable energy investment productivity to certain amount. |
| Keywords: | Financial development; Environmental regulation; Green economic performance; GMM; Econometric estimation |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2021–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109671&r= |
| By: | Martha Orellano; Christine Lambey-Checchin (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020]); Khaled Medini; Gilles Neubert |
| Abstract: | The notion of sustainable innovation (SI) emerged recently in the academic literature and evokes deep changes in organizations' products, processes, and practices to favour the creation of social and environmental value in addition to economic returns. The development of SI implies a collaborative process that requires the orchestration of several actors and streams of knowledge to be successful. Indeed, companies adopting the SI path need structured methodologies to guide the collaboration process with internal and external actors and support the decision process. Nevertheless, the literature has focused on the analysis of determinants and drivers of sustainable innovation development, while the process perspective has been discussed less. Through an in-depth case study in a large-sized company in France, this article proposes a methodological framework to guide the collaborative process in the early phases of sustainable innovation development. The framework relies on a combination of qualitative research and a multicriteria decision aiding method (AHP). The contributions of this work address two main aspects: (i) the conceptualization of sustainable innovation (SI) and (ii) the collaborative process between internal and external actors to develop SI. Firstly, our study leads to two additional dimensions to complete the concept of SI, traditionally based on the three pillars of sustainability (economic, environmental, and social), by adding the functional and relational dimensions. Secondly, concerning the collaborative process to develop SI, our framework proposes a structured methodology following five steps: definition of the project scope, setting actors' motivations, defining satisfaction criteria, proposing SI solutions, and performing a decision-aiding process to define the preference profiles of the key actors. |
| Keywords: | case study research,decision-aiding,collaboration,customer-driven innovation,G. A Methodological Framework to Support the Sustainable Innovation Development Process: A Collaborative Approach sustainable innovation,Neubert,K.,Medini,Orellano,C.,Lambey-Checchin,M. |
| Date: | 2021–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03341881&r= |
| By: | Daniel Spiro |
| Abstract: | What is a good reduced-form representation of Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans. (RCK) model? Solow’s model (despite non-optimizing agents) provides predictions largely consistent with a closed-economy RCK but fundamentally differs regarding open-economy income convergence. Where RCK predicts partial income and consumption convergence between open economies Solow predicts full convergence. This paper presents, by a small modification of the savings behavior in the Solow model, a framework that matches RCK’s properties in closed and open economies. The model, labeled rSolow, is analytically tractable, allowing closed-form solutions of all variables, thus makes several explicit and novel predictions. This includes how income and inequality depend on country size; that income growth will be a U-shaped function of initial income thus creating differentiated convergence; and that poor countries bene.t from higher saving but rich countries may not. |
| Keywords: | convergence, Ramsey, Solow, inequality, growth |
| JEL: | E10 E21 F21 F43 O11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9293&r= |
| By: | Gianluca Orefice; Hillel Rapoport; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | How does immigration affect export performance? To answer this question we propose a unified empirical framework allowing to disentangle various mechanisms such as the role of networks in reducing bilateral transaction costs as well as productivity shifts arising from migration-induced knowledge diffusion and increased workforce diversity. While we find evidence supporting all three channels (at both the intensive and the extensive margins of trade), our framework allows to gauge their relative importance. We then focus on diversity and find stronger results in sectors characterized by more complex production processes and more intense teamwork cooperation. This is consistent with theories linking the distribution of skills to the comparative advantage of nations. The results are robust to using a theoretically-grounded IV approach combining three variations on the shift share methodology. |
| Keywords: | international trade, birthplace diversity, migration, productivity |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F22 O47 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9288&r= |
| By: | Aurelie Charles; Damiano Sguotti |
| Abstract: | The paper applies a methodological tool able to frame national policies with sustainable financial flows between social groups. In effect, exchange-entitlement mapping (e-mapping) shows the interdependency of capital and labour earnings across social groups, which is then accounted for in the policy planning of future financial flows for the green transition. First, the paper highlights the extent to which herd-behaviour feeds into capital and labour earnings by social, occupational, demographic, and regional groups for the UK, France, and Italy over the past forty years. Second, learning from these past trends, the paper proposes a policy framing of “sustainable earning trends” to hamper or facilitate financial flows towards sectors, occupations, and regions prone to herd-behaviour. The paper concludes that for an economic system to be resilient, it should be able to recycle external shocks on group earnings into economic opportunities for the green transition. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:811&r= |
| By: | Masayuki Odora (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1, Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | This study considers strategic communication before voting. Voters have partially conflicting interests rather than common interests. That is, voters cannot tell whether a collective decision is a matter of truth, such as guilty or innocent, or a matter of taste, such as left or right. A set of imperfectly informed voters communicates before casting their votes. From a statistical perspective, truth-telling by all voters in deliberation, coupled with majority rule, may lead to desirable outcomes asymptotically as the population of voters increases. Thus, from a statistical perspective, increasing the population of voters is desirable. This study, however, shows that truthful communication is not incentive-compatible with equilibrium behavior when the size of the electorate is sufficiently large. In particular, truthful communication by all voters is inconsistent with equilibrium for any voting rule and any degree of conflict when the population of voters becomes arbitrarily large. On the other hand, truthful communication might be an equilibrium for a small population of voters. Under these circumstances, voting rules matter. This study shows that majority rule most promotes truthful communication before voting. |
| Keywords: | Information aggregation, Common value elections, Private value elections, Deliberation, Voting rule, Conflicting interests |
| JEL: | C72 D71 D72 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2115&r= |
| By: | George Hondroyiannis (Bank of Greece and Harokopio University); Dimitrios Papaoikonomou (Bank of Greece) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of Eurosystem Asset Purchase Programmes (APP) on the monthly yields of 10-year sovereign bonds for 11 euro area sovereigns during January-December 2020. The analysis is based on time-varying coefficient methods applied to monthly panel data covering the period 2004m09 to 2020m12. During 2020 APP contributed to an average decline in yields estimated in the range of 58-76 bps. In December 2020 the effect per EUR trillion ranged between 34 bps in Germany and 159 bps in Greece. Stronger effects generally display diminishing returns. Our findings suggest that a sharp decline in the size of the APP in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis could lead to very sharp increases in bond yields, particularly in peripheral countries. The analysis additionally reveals a differential response to global risks between core and peripheral countries, with the former enjoying safe-haven benefits. Markets’ perceptions of risk are found to be significantly affected by credit ratings, which is in line with recent evidence based on constant parameter methods. |
| Keywords: | Euro area;asset purchase programmes; sovereign bond yields; time-varying parameters. |
| JEL: | C33 E44 E52 E58 F34 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:291&r= |
| By: | Geoffrey Heal |
| Abstract: | I consider the effect of empathy towards others on the internalization of interpersonal externalities and on private contributions to the provision of public goods. I show that if preferences are empathetic in the sense of depending on the well-being of others, then in an extreme case external effects are fully internalized, and private contributions to the provision of a public good will be sufficient for it to be provided at an efficient level. Furthermore I show that an increase in the level of empathy shown by any agent will lead to an increase in the level of provision of the public good, and that as empathy levels increase towards their upper bound, the level of provision of the public good converges to the efficient level. Under certain conditions an increase in empathy is Pareto improving. As it is well-documented that people display some degree of empathy, it is arguable that our failure to provide public goods at efficient levels is attributable to lack of empathy as well as to the free rider problem. |
| JEL: | H00 H23 H41 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29255&r= |
| By: | Bruno S. Frey |
| Abstract: | Nowadays, academic journals of high standing rarely accept a conceptual idea in a paper not instantly accompanied by econometric estimates. The idea would almost certainly get rejected. Empirical validation based on past statistical data has produced an unfortunate backward orientation in economics. While one can learn from the past, this approach fails when the underlying conditions strongly change. The paper suggests various possibilities to overcome the intense publication pressure in so-called top journals and the overemphasis on instant empirical evidence. Academia is, however, unlikely to adapt. As economics is too backward oriented, other disciplines or cranks may well dominate future economic policy. |
| JEL: | A10 A11 B40 C10 C80 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2021-32&r= |
| By: | Grosman, Anna; Amore, Mario Daniele |
| Abstract: | Share repurchases have come under criticism as they may be used for earnings management and take capital away from productive investment. However, share repurchases can also reduce the agency costs of free cash flow and offset the dilution of current shareholders. Whether firms engage in good or manipulative share repurchases can crucially hinge on the quality of corporate governance. Using UK firm panel data, we study the effect of independent directors on repurchase policies. Our results indicate that board independence increases the propensity to engage in share repurchases. Moreover, board independence attenuates the harmful effect of manipulative share repurchases on employment growth. Our approach exploits the passage of a corporate governance reform which provided a unique opportunity to tease out the causal impact of independent directors on share repurchases. Our findings advocate in favor of more active involvement of independent directors in payout policies. |
| Keywords: | corporate governance; boards; share repurchases; independent directors; employment; earnings management; UK |
| JEL: | G30 G35 J3 |
| Date: | 2021–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109811&r= |
| By: | Steven T. Berry (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Philip A. Haile (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Demand elasticities and other features of demand are critical determinants of the answers to most positive and normative questions about market power or the functioning of markets in practice. As a result, reliable demand estimation is an essential input to many types of research in Industrial Organization and other fields of economics. This chapter presents a discussion of some foundational issues in demand estimation. We focus on the distinctive challenges of demand estimation and strategies one can use to overcome them. We cover core models, alternative data settings, common estimation approaches, the role and choice of instruments, and nonparametric identification. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2301&r= |
| By: | Hyong-Chol O; Tae-Song Kim; Tae-Song Choe |
| Abstract: | In this paper is investigated the pricing problem of options on bonds with credit risk based on analysis on two kinds of solving problems for the Black-Scholes equations. First, a solution representation of the Black-Scholes equation with the maturity payoff function which is the product of the power function, normal distribution function and characteristic function is provided. Then a solution representation of a special terminal boundary value problem of the Black-Sholes equation is provided and its monotonicity is proved. The simplest case of the structural model of the credit bond is studied and its pricing formula is provided, and based on the results, the pricing model of option on corporate bond with credit risk is transformed into a terminal boundary value problem of the Black-Scholes equation with some special maturity payoff functions and the solution formula is obtained. Using it, we provide the pricing formulae of the puttable and callable bonds with credit risk. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10818&r= |
| By: | Michelle Norris (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin); Eoin O'Sullivan (Department of Social Work and Social Policy, Trinity College Dublin); Anna Visser (Department of Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth) |
| Abstract: | The provision of social housing and other accommodation for Travellers, such as caravan halting sites, is one of the most intractable, policy challenges in Ireland. Accommodation needs amongst this disadvantaged, nomadic community have remained high for decades. This reflects a persistent but complex 'implementation deficit' as evidenced by local government's failure to meet the accommodation provision targets set by central government and contradictions between the type of accommodation delivered and policy-makers' plans. To illuminate the factors which have shaped these outcomes, this article draws on Matland's (1995) ideas on the influence of conflict and ambiguity on policy implementation. It reveals that, despite unambiguous national policy objectives, policy implementation mechanisms have remained ambiguous. This isn't surprising because Traveller accommodation proposals are often vociferously and successfully opposed by neighbouring residents. This opposition has shaped the scale and nature of the Traveller accommodation policy implementation deficit. This deficit also means that the relatively progressive objectives of Traveller accommodation policy remain largely symbolic. |
| Keywords: | Traveller accommodation, nomadism, policy implementation, policy conflict. |
| Date: | 2021–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202112&r= |
| By: | Cesar Salinas (Indiana University) |
| Abstract: | Developing countries are facing the Covid-19 epidemic with particular challenges, such as their economic and labor force composition. In this research I will extend the so-called SIR-macro model with demand and supply effects to study how the size of the informal sector impact the ability of these countries to respond to the epidemic. Lockdown policies are useful to control the health crisis but these are less effective in informal markets. As a result, infection and death rates will not decrease as expected, and since informal activities are not counted in the calculation of the GDP, this would exacerbate the size of the recession. Finally, in order to generate similar results to an economy with only formal markets, the economy with informal markets has to implement more severe containment policies. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, informality, recessions, SIR macro model |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2021-002&r= |
| By: | Pamela Jakiela (Williams College); Owen Ozier (Williams College) |
| Abstract: | Languages use different systems for classifying nouns. Gender languages assign nouns to distinct sex-based categories, masculine and feminine. We construct a new data set, documenting the presence or absence of grammatical gender in more than 4,000 languages which together account for more than 99% of the world’s population. We find a robust negative relationship between prevalence of gender languages and women’s labor force participation and educational attainment both across and within countries. We also demonstrate that grammatical gender is associated with both weaker legal support for women’s equality and reduced female bargaining power within the household. |
| Keywords: | grammatical gender, language, gender, linguistic determinism, labor force participation, gender gaps |
| JEL: | J16 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2021-13&r= |
| By: | Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Donatella Cheri (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Sara Banfi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies) |
| Abstract: | The GOAL of the Report 'Smart cities and flagship stores: lighting fixtures' is to provide: Lighting companies with a tool to identify potential locations where to set their mono-brand stores, keeping into account potential synergies (for instance the presence of complementary brands) as well as an indicator of the cost of the area; The industry, in general, with an analysis on the medium-term trends affecting the main cities worldwide. DESCRIPTION: The Report provides profiles of 85 cities worldwide with a selection of economic and demographic indicators (2013 and 2018), estimates of the potential market for lighting fixtures, in each city and the forecasts for the market development to the year 2023. The study also offers an analysis of the geographical presence of a selected sample of 65 brands, each of which operates as a trend-setter in its own category. Each identified location is characterized by its type (store, multibrand store, shopping centre) and the cost of the area in which they are located. The aim is, thus, to provide a comprehensive view of the cities that a selection of international retailers entered. Finally, each profile presents a selection of lighting stores and their geographical distribution. In order to identify the position of each of these players in the selected cities, CSIL employed the technique of web scrapping. WEB SCRAPING (also called web harvesting, or web data extraction) is an IT technique of extracting data from a website using software programs. Usually, such programs simulate human browsing on the World Wide Web using the Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP) or through browsers. After applying a system of filters, we managed to identified 4,809 locations across 85 cities. Each location has been further characterized with two additional information: the type of store and the cost of the area. Using metadata, formatted addresses, and GPS coordinates, we managed to define whether the location is a store, a multi-brand retailer, or it is sited in a shopping centre. The residual category, 'Else', includes all the other type of locations: offices, warehouses, distribution centre, etc. Secondly, we managed to associate per each location the cost of the area in which it is sited. The cost is given by a proxy that is the average price of the hotel rooms per night for two persons in a given date (ante Covid-19) of all the hotels positioned within 1 km from the selected location. The price of the hotel rooms, their names and locations were collected implementing a second web-scraping tool. We managed to download the references for 71,132 hotels in 148 cities, no data were available for Tehran (Iran) and Khartum (Sudan). Then, the results were grouped into four categories: 'Very Cheap' (smaller than the first quartile), 'Cheap' (between the first and the second quartile), 'Expensive' (between the second and the third quartile), 'Very Expensive' (higher than the third quartile). The same SPECIAL ANALYSIS was implemented for the 85 selected cities focusing on furniture stores only. We geocalized the presence of 30 leading lighting brands in the selected cities. In addition, we look for the outlets registed with the metadata 'lighting store'. After applying a system of filters, we managed to identified 3,008 locations across 84 cities. No data are available for Tianjin (China). Each location is characterized by the distance from the city centre (in Km), the number of reviews available on Google, the average value of these reviews (from 1 to 5), the website of the store whenever available. For each CITY PROFILE, the following data, indicators and forecasts are provided: Population and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Households and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Gross domestic product per capita and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Household’s consumption per capita and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Gross domestic product and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Household’s consumption and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Breakdown of households by the level of income, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Lighting fixtures demand and its growth rate, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Lighting store sales (factory price) and its growth rate, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Spatial analysis of the distribution of 50 brands within the city map; Spatial analysis of the distribution of lighting outlets within the city map. In order to minimize the problems arisen by the lack of a unique definition of city, CSIL decided to use demographic and economic data coming from a unique source, namely C-GIDD (www.cgidd.com). We access that database in January 2020, therefore macroeconomic estimations and forecasts were made before that date. The world has changed dramatically in the recent months as the world has been put in a Great Lockdown. According to the IMF, 'the magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes'. Up to the publication date of this report updates on forecasts up to 2023 haven’t be released. The only updates concern 2021. According to the IMF, 'assuming the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and that policy actions taken around the world are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, and system-wide financial strains, we project global growth in 2021 to rebound to 5.8%. This recovery in 2021 is only partial as the level of economic activity is projected to remain below the level that we had projected for 2021, before the virus hit'. |
| JEL: | L11 L22 L68 L81 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mst:csilre:s86&r= |
| By: | Szilvia Joó (CBHU - Campden BRI Magyarország Nonprofit Kft); Tünde Kuti (CBHU - Campden BRI Magyarország Nonprofit Kft); Csaba Baár (CBHU - Campden BRI Magyarország Nonprofit Kft); Andras Sebők (CBHU - Campden BRI Magyarország Nonprofit Kft); Florian Paillet (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Eric Trably (LBE - Laboratoire de Biotechnologie de l'Environnement [Narbonne] - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Mechthild Donner (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Hugo De Vries (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UMR IATE - Ingénierie des Agro-polymères et Technologies Émergentes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM - Université de Montpellier - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Nathalie Gontard (UMR IATE - Ingénierie des Agro-polymères et Technologies Émergentes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM - Université de Montpellier - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anne Verniquet (Sofies SA); Annamaria Celli (UNIBO - Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna); Katrin Kayser (IBBK Fachgruppe Biogas GmbH); Burkhard Schaer (Ecozept - Partenaires INRAE); Denise Gider (Ecozept - Partenaires INRAE); Mauro Majone (UNIROMA1 - UNISA, Italy); Marianna Villano (UNIROMA1 - UNISA, Italy) |
| Date: | 2020–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03346874&r= |
| By: | Bazoche, Pascale; Guinet, Nicolas; Poret, Sylvaine; Teyssier, Sabrina |
| Abstract: | A widespread transition towards diets based on plant proteins as substitutes for animal pro- teins would contribute to food system sustainability. Such changes in consumer food choices can be fostered by public policy. We conducted an online experiment to test whether provid- ing consumers with information regarding the negative consequences of meat consumption on the environment or health increases the substitution of animal-based proteins with plant-based proteins. The consumers had to make three meal selections, the first without exposure to infor- mation and the latter two after exposure to environmental or health information. One group of consumers served as the control and received no information. The results show that half of the consumers chose meals with animal proteins in all three cases. The information intervention had a limited impact on the average consumer. However, a latent class analysis shows that the information intervention impacted a sub-sample of the consumers. Information policy does not appear to be sufficient for altering consumer behaviour regarding the consumption of animal proteins. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2021–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inrasl:313663&r= |
| By: | Syeda Anam Fatima Rizvi (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Resource availability matters the most in health care system-based outcomes. But health spending is highly unequal across the world and presents varying outcomes. This study aims to investigate the missing part that why some countries failed to have reasonable outcomes despite spending more than those countries that spend less. This study intends to include all those factors that are responsible for improving the costeffectiveness of health expenditures. The study took two data sets, one from the developing countries and second of developed countries as per World Bank classification. As anticipated, there are significant differences in health per capita expenditures. Determinants were also found to behave differently both in the short run and long run as well as across the two data sets. |
| Keywords: | Cost effectiveness,Health Expenditures,Health JEL Classifications: H510,I100 |
| Date: | 2020–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03341702&r= |
| By: | Andrej Cupak; Pavel Ciaian; d'Artis Kancs |
| Abstract: | We estimate wage differentials between foreign- and native-born workers across developed and developing economies. We leverage internationally harmonised microdata covering 21 countries, 20 years and 1.5 million individuals and employ counterfactual decomposition techniques. We find that vis-à-vis comparable workers born in developed countries, the workers born in developing economies are disadvantaged both in their home country labour markets and – if migrating – also in developed host countries. Wage differentials suggest the opposite for workers born in developed countries – their wages are higher not only in developed countries but for migrants also in developing host countries. After accounting for personal and job-related characteristics, at least 28% of the total native-to-migrant wage gap remains unexplained. The unexplained wage gap has increased during the last decade and can be attributed to the labour market discrimination, differences in unobserved job characteristics, variation in unobserved skills, and the institutional labour market framework. |
| JEL: | D31 J15 J7 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:810&r= |
| By: | Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Notarpietro, Alessandro; Kilponen, Juha; Papadopoulou, Niki; Zimic, Srečko; Aldama, Pierre; Langenus, Geert; Alvarez, Luis Julian; Lemoine, Matthieu; Angelini, Elena; Lozej, Matija; Berben, Robert-Paul; Marotta, Fulvia; Carroy, Alice; Matheron, Julien; Christoffel, Kai; Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Ciccarelli, Matteo; Paredes, Joan; Consolo, Agostino; Pisani, Massimiliano; Cova, Pietro; Schmöller, Michaela; Damjanović, Milan; Smadu, Andra; de Walque, Gregory; Szörfi, Béla; Dupraz, Stéphane; Turunen, Harri; Gumiel, José Emilio; Verona, Fabio; Haertel, Thomas; Vetlov, Igor; Hurtado, Samuel; Warne, Anders; Júlio, Paulo; Zhutova, Anastasia; Kühl, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an assessment of the macroeconomic models regularly used for forecasting and policy analysis in the Eurosystem. These include semi-structural, structural and time-series models covering specific jurisdictions and the euro area within a closed economy, small open economy, multi-country or global setting. Models are used as analytical frameworks for building baseline projections and for supporting the preparation of monetary policy decisions. The paper delivers four main contributions. First, it provides a survey of the macroeconomic modelling portfolios currently used or under development within the Eurosystem. Second, it explores the analytical gaps in the Eurosystem models and investigates the scope for further enhancement of the main projection and policy models, and the creation of new models. Third, it reviews current practices in model-based analysis for monetary policy preparation and forecasting and provides recommendations and suggestions for improvement. Finally, it reviews existing cooperation modalities on model development and proposes alternative sourcing and organisational strategies to remedy any knowledge or analytical gaps identified. JEL Classification: C5, E47, E52, E58, F4 |
| Keywords: | central banking., econometric modelling, forecasting and simulation, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021267&r= |
| By: | Kutlina-Dimitrova, Zornitsa (DG Trade); Rueda-Cantuche, José Manuel (JRC) |
| Abstract: | The current COVID-19 pandemic has had drastic and unprecedented impacts on trade, and GDP worldwide and in the EU. We assess in the paper the potential export related jobs losses that would have affected European workers had not governments and the EU implemented large exceptional support packages to prevent real job losses. To this end, we use a global multi-region input output model based on the recently released FIGARO tables (Eurostat, 2021) and build a counterfactual analysis based on trade flows projections made before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out. Our results show that in the absence of jobs and enterprise retention measures, 6.4 million exports dependent jobs would have been at risk. Therefore, it is urgent for trade to recover quickly since millions of jobs are at stake. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; EU; trade; jobs |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2021_001&r= |
| By: | Els Bekaert; Amelie F. Constant; Killian Foubert; Ilse Ruyssen |
| Abstract: | Aspirations provide the underlying dynamics of the behavior of individuals whether they are realized or not. Knowledge about the characteristics and motives of those who aspire to leave the host country is key for both host and home countries to formulate appropriate and effective policies in order to keep their valued immigrants or citizens and foster their (re-)integration. Based on unique individual-level Gallup World Polls data, a random utility model, and a multinomial logit we model the aspirations or stated preferences of immigrants across 138 countries worldwide. Our analysis reveals selection in characteristics, a strong role for soft factors like social ties and sociocultural integration, and a faint role for economic factors. Changes in circumstances in the home and host countries are also important determinants of aspirations. Results differ by the host countries’ level of economic development. |
| Keywords: | economics of immigrants, geographic labor mobility, public policy, microeconomic behaviour, underlying principles, international migration, large data sets, modelling and analysis |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J68 D01 F22 C55 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9301&r= |
| By: | Agata Rzekęć (IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de L'équitation); Céline Vial (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lucie Sachot (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Keywords: | Filière équine,Diagnostic environmental,Analyse du cycle de vie |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03343210&r= |
| By: | Awolaja, Oladapo G.; Yaya, OlaOluwa S; Vo, Xuan Vinh; Ogbonna, Ahamuefula; Joseph, Solomon O. |
| Abstract: | Unemployment hysteresis of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries is investigated under a battery of unit root testing frameworks in the extant literature, including a recently proposed Panel SUR Dickey-Fuller-like unit root test with Fourier and Exponential Smooth Transition Regression (ESTR) nonlinearities. The Fourier function allows for smooth nonlinear breaks, while the ESTR nonlinearity allows for instantaneous breaks. The two nonlinearity types make the recent approach quite appealing. It has, however, been scarcely applied to empirically test unemployment hysteresis hypothesis. Although we find conflicting stances from ADF, FADF and ADF-SB testing frameworks, evidence of unemployment hysteresis effect in Lebanon is consistent across all three tests. The ADF and FADF tests confirm the hysteresis hypothesis in Kuwait and Lebanon, while FADF-SB rejects the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis across all the 19 MENA countries. The results from the KSS and FKSS unit root testing frameworks consistently affirmed the hysteresis effect in Oman and Turkey, while there are mixed stances for Kuwait and Lebanon. The results from SURADF and SURKSS only support the hysteresis hypothesis in Turkey, while the same is confirmed only for Bahrain under the SURFADF and SURFKSS testing frameworks. Unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is confirmed for 12 (about 63.15% of the total number considered) MENA economies. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment rate; MENA countries; Fourier function; Seemingly Unrelated Regression; Panel data; Unit root test |
| JEL: | C22 C23 E24 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109831&r= |
| By: | Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur; Rahaman, Md. Shajedur; Islam, Mohammad Ariful; Omar, Md. Imran; Siddique, Md. Abu Bakr |
| Abstract: | The sustainable development goals emphasized achieving food security and improved nutrition for all. As nothing is more important than health, all should have adequate basic nutrients to lead a healthy life. Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is a major problem in large parts of the developing world. Apart from acute symptoms of eye problems, VAD also weakens the immune system, thus increasing the incidence and severity of infectious diseases. For adults, the implications can be serious too, especially for pregnant and lactating women. The most affected are the poor, whose diets are predominated by less nutritious staple foods on account of lacking purchasing power and limited awareness. ‘Golden Rice’ has been developed through genetic engineering at Swiss and German universities. It is a new type of rice that contains ‘beta-carotene’, which is converted into vitamin A inside the body as needed and gives the grain its golden color. It’s grown just like ordinary rice and aims to provide 30-50% of the estimated average requirement for vitamin A. It could improve the vitamin A status of deficient food consumers, especially women and children in developing countries. Some optimists praise it as the solution to overcome malnutrition and VAD. It already has received biosafety approval and released in the Philippines and hopes to release in Bangladesh soon. Prior to the release, the healthier rice team aimed to draw a deployment strategy of golden rice in Bangladesh. Therefore, this study has been conducted to assess the affordability and varietal choice of the targeted beneficiaries in the specific regions of Bangladesh. |
| Keywords: | Golden rice,Deployment policy,Ex-ante,vitamin A deficiency,Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:241994&r= |
| By: | Olivier Billaud (CESCO - Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la COnservation - MNHN - Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Etienne Maclouf (CESCO - Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la COnservation - MNHN - Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEREGE - CEntre de REcherche en GEstion - EA 1722 - Université de Poitiers - ULR - Université de La Rochelle - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - Université de Poitiers) |
| Abstract: | Nous avons mené une recherche-intervention dans l'Observatoire Agricole de la Biodiversité (OAB), un programme de sciences participatives destiné aux agriculteurs afin d'observer la biodiversité de leurs parcelles. Mobilisant l'approche par les paradoxes nous montrons que la recherche de proximité de l'OAB et ses appropriations sont productrices et révélatrices de paradoxes. Nous observons une tension entre la production de connaissances à l'échelle nationale, trop générales, et la volonté opérationnelle des participants, difficile à satisfaire à cause de la nature contingente de la biodiversité. Des dynamiques existent pour essayer de dépasser ces tensions, notamment à travers une valorisation socio-politique du programme ou des productions de connaissances plus "profanes". Ces résultats donnent corps à l'ambiguïté actuelle des modes de production des connaissances en agronomie, entre tentation normative et volonté d'intégration des savoirs locaux de l'agriculteur. Nous questionnons au final la posture d'expertise et de généralisation qui s'avère peu opérationnelle face aux enjeux de biodiversité. |
| Keywords: | paradox,proximity,citizen science,biodiversity,paradoxe,proximité,sciences participatives,agriculture,biodiversité |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03338599&r= |
| By: | Ashish Arora; Sharon Belenzon; Konstantin Kosenko; Jungkyu Suh; Yishay Yafeh |
| Abstract: | Corporate science in America emerged in the interwar period, as some companies set up state-of-the-art corporate laboratories, hired trained scientists, and embarked upon basic research of the kind we would associate today with academic institutions. Using a newly assembled dataset on U.S. companies between 1926 and 1940 combining information on corporate ownership, organization, research and innovation, we attempt to explain the rise of corporate research. We argue that it was driven by companies trying to take advantage of opportunities for innovation made possible by scientific advances and an underdeveloped academic research system in the United States. Measuring field-specific scientific backwardness in several different ways, we find that large firms, business group affiliated firms, and firms close to the technological frontier were more likely to initiate scientific research. We also find that companies in monopolistic or concentrated industries were more likely to engage in basic research. Corporate research was positively correlated with novel and valuable patents, and with market-to-book ratios. For companies choosing to do so, investment in corporate research seems to have paid off. The results shed light on the link between corporate organization, market structure and corporate science. |
| JEL: | N8 N82 O32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29260&r= |
| By: | Ofori, Isaac K.; Ofori, Pamela E.; Asongu, Simlice A. |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the momentous rise in ICT diffusion, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement, and the expected rebound of foreign direct investment inflow to Africa from 2022, this study examines the joint effects of industrialisation and ICT diffusion on resource mobilisation in Africa. To this end, we use data on 42 African countries for the period 1996 – 2020 for the analysis. First, we provide evidence robust to several specifications from the dynamic system GMM to show that although unconditionally both industrialisation and ICT diffusion enhance (i) goods and services tax (GST), and (ii) profits, corporate and income tax (PCIT) mobilisation efforts in Africa, the effects of the former are rather remarkable in the presence of the latter. Particularly, the results show that, while ICTs amplify the effect of industrialisation on GST, only ICT usage and ICT skills matter for PCIT. Second, the study unveils ICT thresholds for complementary policies. Accordingly, industrialisation and ICTs are necessary and sufficient conditions for tax revenue mobilisation only below some ICT thresholds. Above these ICT thresholds, complementary policies are needed to maintain the overall positive incidence on tax revenue mobilisation. Policy recommendations are provided in the end. |
| Keywords: | AfCFTA,Africa,ICT access,ICT diffusion,Industrialisation,Tax,Revenue |
| JEL: | C33 F6 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:241291&r= |
| By: | Arnold, Fabian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Jeddi, Samir (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Sitzmann, Amelie (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | Within the regulation of net purchasing, investment incentives for residential PV depend on the remuneration for grid feed-in and the consumption costs that households can save by self-consumption. Network tariffs constitute a substantial part of these consumption costs. We use postcode-level data for Germany between 2009 and 2017 and exploit the regional heterogeneity of network tariffs to investigate whether they encourage to invest in PV installations and evaluate how the nonlinear tariff structure impacts residential PV adoption. Our results show that network tariffs do impact PV adoption. The effect has increased in recent years when self-consumption has become financially more attractive, and the results confirm the expectation that PV investments are driven by the volumetric tariff. Policy reforms that alter the share between the price components are, thus, likely to affect residential PV adoption. Further, with self-consumption becoming a key incentive, price signals can effectively support the coordination of electricity demand and supply in Germany. |
| Keywords: | Network tariffs; PV investments; self-consumption; price perception; panel data; prosumer; non-linear prices |
| JEL: | C33 D12 L51 Q42 |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2021_007&r= |
| By: | Francesco Furlanetto; Antoine Lepetit; Ørjan Robstad; Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez; Pål Ulvedal |
| Abstract: | In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the Great Recession is included in the sample. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least productive workers. |
| Keywords: | Hysteresis; Structural vector autoregressions; Sign restrictions; Long-run restrictions; Employment; Labor productivity; Local projections |
| JEL: | C32 E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-59&r= |
| By: | Ehsan, Zaeem-Al |
| Abstract: | The paper aims to assess the market efficiency of Renata Ltd in the weak form by analyzing monthly returns ranging from December 2007 to April 2021. Past literature on the same topic uncovered the non-existence of efficiency in the weak form in the Dhaka Stock Exchange. Initially, a descriptive analysis was done using the 4 moments of Renata Ltd and the Dhaka Stock Exchange broad market exchange. A graphical analysis using P-P and Q-Q plots rejected the assumption that the returns of Renata Ltd come from a normal distribution. This was further supported by Jarque-Bera and Shapiro-Wilk tests of normality which also rejects the null hypothesis of the returns of Renata Ltd having come from a normal distribution. Graphical tests of autocorrelation were made to uncover the presence of any correlation between returns of Renata Ltd, which was found to not exist. Thus, we can assert that there is no presence of serial correlation, and therefore, the market is efficient in the weak form according to the graphical analysis of correlograms. To quantifiably test the presence of a random walk effect, the Durbin-Watson, Breusch Godfrey, Portmanteau, runs, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and variance root tests were undertaken. All tests support the fact that Renata Ltd.’s return does follow a random-walk process, implying the existence of weak form market efficiency. |
| Keywords: | EMH, random-walk, ADF, Breusch Godfrey, P-P, Durbin Watson, Portmanteau, unit root, Jarque-Bera, Shapiro-Wilk, Q-Q,variance-root, structural break |
| JEL: | C1 G01 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109726&r= |
| By: | Polezhaeva Natalia (RANEPA); Apevalova Elena (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus crisis and the measures taken by national governments to combat the pandemic have led to an acute situation in the field of insolvency of companies. Assessments of the situation vary, and there are many reasons for this: the continuation of the pandemic, the introduction of lockdowns, and the adoption of measures to curb the wave of bankruptcies. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, corporate governance |
| JEL: | I18 I19 G32 G33 G34 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1139&r= |
| By: | Battulga Gankhuu |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we have studied option pricing methods that are based on a Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-BVAR) process using a risk-neutral valuation approach. A BVAR process which is a special case of the Bayesian MS-VAR process is widely used to model inter-dependencies of economic variables and forecast economic variables. Here we assumed that a regime-switching process is generated by a homogeneous Markov process and for a normal system, a residual process follows a conditional heteroscedastic model. With a direct calculation and change of probability measure, for some frequently used options, we derive pricing formulas. An advantage of our model is it depends on economic variables and is easy to use compared to previous option pricing papers which depend on regime-switching. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05998&r= |
| By: | Ding Dong; Zheng Liu; Pengfei Wang |
| Abstract: | Recessions are associated with sharp increases in turbulence that reshuffles firms' productivity rankings. To study the business cycle implications of turbulence shocks, we use Compustat data to construct a measure of turbulence based on the (inverse of) Spearman correlations of firms' productivity rankings between adjacent years. We document evidence that turbulence rises in recessions, reallocating labor and capital from high-to low-productivity firms and reducing aggregate TFP and the stock market value of firms. A real business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions can generate the observed macroeconomic and reallocation effects of turbulence. In the model, increased turbulence makes high-productivity firms less likely to remain productive, reducing their expected equity values and tightening their borrowing constraints relative to low-productivity firms. Thus, labor and capital are reallocated to low-productivity firms, reducing aggregate TFP and generating a recession with synchronized declines in aggregate output, consumption, investment, and labor hours, in line with empirical evidence. |
| Date: | 2021–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:93061&r= |
| By: | Lin Li |
| Abstract: | Financial trading aims to build profitable strategies to make wise investment decisions in the financial market. It has attracted interests in the machine learning community for a long time. This paper proposes to trade financial assets automatically using feature preprocessing skills and Recurrent Reinforcement Learning (RRL) algorithm. The strategy starts from technical indicators extracted from assets' market information. Then these technical indicators are preprocessed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and eventually inputted to the RRL algorithm to do the trading. The extensive empirical evidence shows that the proposed strategy is not only effective and robust in its performance, but also can mitigate the drawbacks underlying the initial trading using RRL. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05283&r= |
| By: | Evelien Croonen (University of Groningen [Groningen]); Hans van der Bij (University of Groningen [Groningen]); Rozenn Perrigot (UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes, CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Assaad El Akremi (UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées); Olivier Herrbach (UB - Université de Bordeaux, IRGO - Institut de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux) |
| Abstract: | An important challenge for franchisors is to find individuals with strong intentions to become franchisees that they can actively support in this ambition. We contribute to franchising research by developing and testing a model to explain individual intentions to become franchisees as a specific type of entrepreneurial intention (EI). We combine Achievement Motivation Theory (AMT) with the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to propose inverted U-shaped associations between individual motivations (i.e. need for achievement and risk-taking propensity), their cognitive assessments of franchising (i.e. attitude towards franchising and perceived behavioural control), and their EI regarding franchising. Our survey of 666 individuals demonstrates that need for achievement impacts attitude towards franchising and perceived behavioural control regarding franchising following respectively inverted U-shaped and declining positive relationships, and they partly mediate the relationships between need for achievement and EI regarding franchising. We find a negative linear association with attitude towards franchising. |
| Keywords: | achievement motivation theory,entrepreneurial intentions,franchising,theory of planned behaviour |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03281669&r= |
| By: | Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric; Musso, Alberto; Rodriguez, Diego; Vlassopoulos, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the role of economic and monetary analysis in the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Both areas of analysis have evolved since the 2003 strategy review. Economic analysis has assigned an increasingly relevant role to the Eurosystem and ECB staff macroeconomic projections in forming a view on the medium-term outlook for economic activity and inflation. Furthermore, its focus has strengthened with regard to structural trends in shaping key economic relationships. Similarly, monetary analysis has shifted in focus: while the 2003 review emphasised the information value of monetary dynamics for detecting risks to price stability over medium-term to longer-term horizons, the focus of monetary analysis has increasingly been redirected to the assessment of monetary policy transmission. This evolution has opened a gap between the formal description of the strategy following the 2003 review and the practice of economic and monetary analysis in informing the ECB’s policy deliberations. This paper concludes by presenting options for closing this gap and aligning the strategy formulation with the evolved role of economic and monetary analysis. JEL Classification: E32, E37, E44, E47, E51, E52, E58 |
| Keywords: | ECB two-pillar framework, Economic analysis, monetary analysis |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021277&r= |
| By: | Harouna Kinda (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Noel Thiombiano |
| Abstract: | The extractive industries (oil, gas, and mining) play a dominant economic, social, and political role in the lives of approximately 3.5 billion people living in 81 countries across the world. However, the benefits come at a cost that is no longer limited to the problems of the ‘curse of natural resources', but also includes the damage of greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, and biodiversity that extraction wreaks on the environment. This paper revisits the links between man-made and natural capital in developing countries, focusing on the case of forest cover loss . Considering a theoretical model of income maximization, we assess through empirical observation the impact of extractive industries on forest cover loss. Based on a panel of 52 resource-rich developing countries, over the period 2001-2017, we adopt a dynamic specification with the two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) system to address the inherent bias. Our main results show that the total rent from the extractive industries is detrimental to the forest. More specifically, mineral and gas rents accelerate forest cover loss. In contrast, oil rents contribute to reducing forest cover loss. In addition, we find that natural resource tax revenues contribute to reducing forest cover loss. Our results suggest substitutability between oil rents (natural resource tax revenues and forest natural capital), and complementarity between mineral rents (gas rents and forest natural capital). To promote corporate environmental management, stakeholders must overcome regulatory inefficiencies in exploration and exploitation contracts so that environmental compensation is at least equal to the marginal damage caused by the extractive industries. |
| Date: | 2021–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03344196&r= |
| By: | Tomoo Kikuchi; Satoshi Tobe |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between foreign debt and GDP growth using a panel dataset of 122 countries from 1980 to 2015. We find that economic growth correlates positively with foreign debt and that the relationship is causal in nature by using the sovereign credit default swap spread as an instrumental variable. Furthermore, we find that foreign debt increases investment and then GDP growth in subsequent years. Our findings suggest that sovereign default risks are responsible for "upstream" capital flows that contribute to GDP growth in OECD countries. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10517&r= |
| By: | Kosfeld, Reinhold; Mitze, Timo; Rode, Johannes; Wälde, Klaus |
| Abstract: | The paper studies the containment effects of public health measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 during the first wave of the pandemic in spring 2020 in Germany. To identify the effects of six compound sets of public health measures, we employ a spatial difference-in-differences approach. We find that contact restrictions, mandatory wearing of face masks and closure of schools substantially contributed to flattening the infection curve. The significance of the impact of restaurant closure does not prove to be robust. No incremental effect is evidenced for closure of establishments and the shutdown of non-essential retail stores. |
| Date: | 2021–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:128372&r= |
| By: | Diether W. Beuermann; Nicolas L. Bottan; Bridget Hoffmann; C. Kirabo Jackson; Diego A. Vera Cossio |
| Abstract: | Canonical human capital theories posit that education, by enhancing worker skills, reduces the likelihood that a worker will be laid-off during times of economic change. Yet, this has not been demonstrated causally. We link administrative education records from 1987 through 2002 to nationally representative surveys conducted before and after COVID-19 onset in Barbados to explore the causal impact of improved education on job loss during this period. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, Beuermann and Jackson (2020) show that females (but not males) who score just above the admission threshold for more selective schools in Barbados attain more years of education than those that scored just below (essentially holding initial ability fixed). Here, in follow-up data, we show that these same females (but not males) are much less likely to have lost a job after the onset of COVID-19. We show that these effects are not driven by sectoral changes, or changes in labor supply. Because employers observe incumbent worker productivity, these patterns are inconsistent with pure education signalling, and suggest that education enhances worker skill. |
| JEL: | H0 I2 J0 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29231&r= |
| By: | Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Sara Banfi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies) |
| Abstract: | The report The lighting fixtures market in Japan is at its fifth edition. It provides historical statistical data 2015-2020 of Production, International trade and Market size of the lighting fixtures industry in Japan. Total and LED-based consumption of lighting fixtures forecasts up to 2023 are also provided. Lighting fixtures demand for the Japanese market is broken down by segment (consumer/residential lighting, architectural/commercial lighting, industrial lighting and outdoor lighting) and by light source (Conventional and LED). A focus on LED lighting is provided as well as a snapshot of the advent of Connected Smart Lighting and Human Centric Lighting. A breakdown of Japanese lighting fixtures exports and imports is provided by country and by geographical area of destination/origin. The competitive system analyses the main companies present in the Japanese lighting fixtures market (by segment, by product and application), with data on sales and market shares and short company profiles. A breakdown of the distribution channels of lighting fixtures in Japan is given, together with short profiles and sales of a sample of lighting fixture distributors. Covered channels are: direct sales and contract; lighting fixtures specialists; furniture stores/chains, department stores, DIY; Wholesalers; E-commerce sales; appliances/electronic stores. A list of selected architectural companies in Japan involved in the lighting business and Lighting designers is given. A relevant financial analysis is included for around 30 Japanese manufacturers of lighting fixtures and related activities. Population trends, macroeconomic indicators (including GDP, Inflation, population indicators, building construction indicators), and construction data are also provided. Addresses of the mentioned lighting companies in Japan are also enclosed. |
| JEL: | L11 L22 L68 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mst:csilre:s72jp&r= |
| By: | Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the heterogeneous effects of technical regulations and safety standards embodied in non-tariff measures on foreign direct investment using global firm-level panel data of bilateral cross-border ownership relationships over the period 2008-2018. To this end, we develop a novel measure of time-varying bilateral ad valorem equivalents of sectoral non-tariff measures, which reveals that technical barriers to trade (TBTs) played a much greater role as a trade-inhibiting factor in comparison with import tariffs and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures over the period 1996-2018, with their relative importance increasing in the post-Great Recession period. Estimations using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood framework reveal the importance of non-tariff measures as a driver of foreign direct investment, with heterogeneous effects observed for the measures imposed by the host and the home country, as well as across sectors and types of non-tariff measures. Among other results, we find that an increase in the stringency of technical barriers to trade imposed by the host country is associated with higher investment in the foreign subsidiaries operating in this country, pointing to the regulatory barrier-jumping motive of foreign direct investment. The effect is much stronger for the multinational corporations operating in the information and communications technology sector. |
| Keywords: | FDI; non-tariff measures; ad-valorem equivalent of NTMs, TBT; SPS measures; ICT |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:210&r= |
| By: | Drudi, Francesco; Moench, Emanuel; Holthausen, Cornelia; Weber, Pierre-François; Ferrucci, Gianluigi; Setzer, Ralph; Adao, Bernardino; Dées, Stéphane; Alogoskoufis, Spyros; Téllez, Mar Delgado; Andersson, Malin; Di Nino, Virginia; Aubrechtova, Jana; Diez-Caballero, Arturo; Avgousti, Aris; Duarte, Claudia; Barbiero, Francesca; Estrada, Ángel; Boneva, Lena; Faccia, Donata; Breitenfellner, Andreas; Faiella, Ivan; Bua, Giovanna; Farkas, Mátyás; Bun, Maurice; Ferrari, Alessandro; Caprioli, Francesco; Fornari, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo; Mendoza, Alberto Fuertes; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Garcia-Sanchez, Pablo; Giovannini, Alessandro; Papadopoulou, Niki; Grüning, Patrick; Parker, Miles; Guarda, Paolo; Petroulakis, Filippos; Hebbink, Gerbert; Piloiu, Anamaria; Murphy, Sarah Jane Hlásková; Ploj, Gasper; Ioannidis, Michael; Pointner, Wolfgang; Isgro, Lorenzo; Popov, Alexander; Kapp, Daniel; Prammer, Doris; Kashama, Mélissa Kasongo; Queiroz, Ricardo; Lopez-Garcia, Paloma; Rachedi, Omar; Lozej, Matija; Rognone, Lavinia; Lydon, Reamonn; Röhe, Oke; Manninen, Otso; Roos, Madelaine; Manzanares, Andrés; Russo, Simone; McInerney, Niall; Santabárbara, Daniel; Meinerding, Christoph; Schotten, Guido; Mikkonen, Katri; Sotomayor, Beatriz; Mistretta, Alessandro; Stracca, Livio; Mongelli, Francesco Paolo; Tamburrini, Fabio; Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Theofilakou, Anastasia; Müller, Georg; Tsalaporta, Pinelopi; Nerlich, Carolin; van den End, Jan Willem; Osiewicz, Malgorzata; Cruz, Lia Vaz; Osorno-Torres, Boris; Weth, Mark Andreas; Ouvrard, Jean-François; Gomez, Gonzalo Yebes; Page, Adrian |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area. It first investigates macroeconomic and financial risks stemming from climate change and from policies aimed at climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as the regulatory and fiscal effects of reducing carbon emissions. In this context, it assesses the need to adapt macroeconomic models and the Eurosystem/ECB staff economic projections underlying the monetary policy decisions. It further considers the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy, in particular the implications for the transmission of monetary policy, the natural rate of interest and the correct identification of shocks. Model simulations using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) illustrate how the interactions of climate change, financial and fiscal fragilities could significantly restrict the ability of monetary policy to respond to standard business cycle fluctuations. The paper concludes with an analysis of a set of potential monetary policy measures to address climate risks, insofar as they are in line with the ECB’s mandate. JEL Classification: E52, E58, Q54 |
| Keywords: | climate change, environmental economics, green finance, monetary policy, sustainable growth economics |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021271&r= |
| By: | Donatella Gatti |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the set-up (following a voting process) of institutional arrangements related to the protection of natural and social resources in a context of inequalities and environmental challenges. To analyze how institutional and legislative protection arises, three socioeconomic groups are considered: the educated bourgeoisie, the working classes and the ?nancial elite. Groups are di¤erentiated according to the following divides. Individuals belonging to the ?nancial elite only rely on capital incomes: they invest on ?rms running either polluting or non-polluting activities. Individuals belonging to the ?rst two groups are di¤erentiated on the following levels: the demand for redistribution (from the working class) and the claims for environment-friendly legislation in relation with clean transport means (by the educated bourgeoisie). We study the institutional framework chosen by individuals under di¤erent assumptions concerning the political vote: disjoint majority versus coalition voting. The main result is that -in reaction to the ?nancial elite being the unique winner of the disjoint majority vote- a people?s green coalition can emerge, whose redistributive and green choices run against the preferences of the ?nancial elite. This leads to the "greening" of the ?nancial elite, which in turn isolates the working classes in the political arena. |
| Keywords: | Institutions, political choice, redistribution, green legislation |
| JEL: | P48 P16 P51 Q59 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01952021&r= |
| By: | Jonas Van der Slycken; Brent Bleys (-) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to calculate economic welfare for the EU-15 countries in a standardized and comparable way. This paper does so by building on a case study for Belgium by Van der Slycken and Bleys (2021) that puts forward a “2.0 methodology” and two distinct welfare measures that deal with cross-time and cross-boundary issues. Both welfare and GDP per capita improved in the EU-15 between 1995 and 2018. Yet, there is an important divergence between welfare and GDP: over time experiential welfare per capita and the per capita benefits and costs of present activities improved by respectively 10.5% and 14%, while GDP per capita grew by 32.4%. These trends in per capita welfare are mainly driven by individual consumption growth, the shadow economy and the welfare losses from income inequality, which compensated about half of the welfare gains of the former two categories.The gap between welfare and GDP diverges especially after the financial crisis when welfare starts stagnating. At the end of the studied period, the EU-15 had already recovered from the financial crisis from a GDP perspective, but it has not from a welfare view. Since the welfare levels in 2018 are less than 2% lower than the period-maximum, there is no conclusive evidence in favor of the threshold hypothesis at the level of the EU-15. The fact the welfare level in nine individual countries is more than 5% lower than its the peak value, however, signals a clear threshold for these countries. Yet, welfare levels could be increased beyond previous peak levels with effective social and environmental welfare policies in place that focus on redistributing and respecting environmental boundaries our economies instead of promoting economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), costshifting, beyond GDP, threshold hypothesis, postgrowth |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:21/1027&r= |
| By: | Jonas Eliasson (University of Linköping) |
| Abstract: | This paper asks whether transport policy assessments should use accessibility benefits as a key measure instead of user benefits. It argues that both measures are equivalent if accessibility measures are based on transport users’ own preferences and if the same principle is used to aggregate benefits. The paper also addresses how distributional questions can be addressed within this approach. |
| Date: | 2020–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2020/21-en&r= |
| By: | Li, Weiqing; Chien, Fengsheng; Ngo, Quang-Thanh; Nguyen, Tien-Dung; Iqbal, Sajid; Bilal, Ahmad Raza |
| Abstract: | The economic and environmental aspects of energy production have become important due to the increasing complexity energy sector and environmental pollution, warranting to test the connection between financial imbalances, energy prices and carbon emission. The study aims to test the impact of vertical fiscal imbalances (VFI) on energy prices and carbon emission trends by considering the dual-perspectives of environmental regulation and industrial structure. The empirical outcomes indicated that vertical fiscal imbalances limited the environmental quality of Pakistan. Furthermore, VFI also caused environmental degradation by affecting industrial structure. VFI inhibits the intensity of environmental regulation, promotes the upgrade of industrial structures, both of which cause additional carbon emissions. The study suggest to energy ministries and energy regulation offices to revisit the mechanism of energy prices determination and revised mechanism should provide a user-friendly assessment to understand the actual costs associated with the rising concern of environmental pollution. By this, environmental protection maximization and optimal energy conservation is expected to increase. Based on empirical findings, the study extends the suggestion that vertical fiscal imbalances should be considered an active indicator by the key policy makers and other stakeholders for energy prices determination and environmental quality upgradation. |
| Keywords: | Vertical financial disparity; Energy prices; Carbon emissions; Environmental regulation; Industrial structure |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2021–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109672&r= |
| By: | Cartelier, Jean |
| Abstract: | RESUMEN: La teoría económica ya no tiene el respaldo de los economistas académicos ni de otros intelectuales. Hay muchas razones para este descrédito, pero ellas tienen que ver principalmente con la reducción del área de investigación, como consecuencia de una necesidad cada vez mayor de coherencia y de la voluntad de probar empíricamente algunos supuestos fundamentales que borra la frontera tradicional entre las disciplinas. El desarrollo de técnicas de procesamiento de datos cuantitativos y la naturaleza de las preguntas planteadas, hace que muchos estudios empíricos hagan parte tanto de la economía como de la sociología. Este declive de la teoría económica se refiere principalmente al paradigma dominante, el cual dio a los economistas, simultáneamente, el tipo de problemas a resolver (existencia y optimalidad de los equilibrios) y las herramientas para hacerlo (modelos matemáticos que asocian comportamientos racionales y condiciones de equilibrio). Ese declive tiene poco que ver con el paradigma dominado que Schumpeter llama análisis monetario y que se opone a la teoría del valor. Ilustrado por Steuart en siglo XVIII y por Keynes en el siglo XX, este análisis monetario se caracteriza por otras cuestiones (viabilidad en lugar de equilibrio) y otras representaciones de la economía (matrices de pagos en lugar de matrices de exceso de demanda). ABSTRACT: Economic theory is has lost most of its attractiveness amongst academic economists. Multiple reasons may explain that discredit but two seem of special interest: most severe requirements about logical consistency and questions to be solved have contributed to shrink the field of economic theory while a strong desire to confront assumptions with reality have blurred the frontier between economics and social sciences. The remarkable development of quantitative techniques (big data) and the type of questions on the agenda have made empirical economics and empirical sociology almost impossible to distinguish. The neglect of economic theory is more evident for the dominant paradigm than for the dominate one, called monetary analysis by Schumpeter who opposed it to real or value analysis. Illustrated by Steuart in 18th century and Keynes in the 20th century, monetary analysis deals with different questions (viability rather than equilibrium) and resorts to different tools (payment matrices rather than excess demands). |
| Keywords: | Teoría, postulados, empirismo, análisis monetario |
| JEL: | A10 A11 A12 B10 B20 |
| Date: | 2021–01–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:019617&r= |
| By: | Bruno S. Frey; Andre Briviba |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a proposal to deal with cultural overtourism causing substantial negative effects. They burden the local population, tourists, and the natural environment by overcrowding, vandalism, and pollution. While at present tourism is suppressed by governments due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it will likely become a major issue again in the future. Our proposal allows us to think about the way cultural tourism should be organized in the future and how to mitigate the negative externalities affecting cultural heritage as well as the local population and the natural environment. As an innovation to overcome these problems, the heavily visited historical sites are to be replicated in a suitable nearby location. Advanced digital technology such as augmented and virtual reality, holograms, and digital twins are to be used to make the cultural sites attractive to all sorts of tourists. |
| Keywords: | Overtourism; innovation; Revived Original; copy; digital technology |
| JEL: | P48 Z10 Z18 Z38 Z30 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2021-31&r= |
| By: | Karel Martens (Technion, Israel Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses two variants of the accessibility paradigm for transport planning. The extensive paradigm aims to radically overhaul transport planning to incorporate issues of environmental quality, urban sprawl, safety and health. Its adoption is unlikely in the medium term and raises questions about the role of the transport planner. The limited paradigm calls for transport planning to adopt accessibility indicators in place of mobility indicators. However this will not meet the underlying goals of the accessibility critique. A change in the focus of transport planning is needed from the functioning of transport networks to the service that differently placed people receive from the transport system. |
| Date: | 2020–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2020/24-en&r= |
| By: | Alessio Lombini |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I estimate the impact of heterogeneity in non-tariff-measures (NTMs) policies on countries' global value chains (GVCs)-related trade and its backward and forward components. I firstly build a regulatory distance (RD) index, which measures the degree of dissimilarity in NTMs structures between two trade partners. By including the RD index in a structural gravity model, I then find a significant negative effect of regulatory distance on total, backward, and forward GVC-related trade. The negative impact results to be even stronger when I conduct the analysis only on manufacturing sectors. On the country dimension, I demonstrate that the effects of regulatory distance are associated with the exporters' and the importers' income levels. |
| Keywords: | Gravity equation, non-tariff measures, regulatory distance, trade protection, international trade, global value chains, technical regulations. |
| JEL: | E16 F13 F14 F15 F63 L51 O40 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:21-08&r= |
| By: | Marisa Bucheli (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Departamento de Economía.); Andrea Vigorito (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | There is limited quantitative research on the effect of parental union dissolution on children’s well-being in developing countries. Based on three waves of a longitudinal study that follows up a cohort of Uruguayan children from age 6 to 19, we study the short- and medium-term effects of parental separation on school attendance, grade repetition, completed years of schooling, socio-emotional status, time devoted to a wide set of activities, and labour force participation. We carry out a fixed effect estimation comparing children from married or cohabiting couples that remained together versus a similar group that split after 2004. We find evidence that union dissolution worsens child educational outcomes in the short and medium term. Meanwhile, at age 19, socio-emotional well-being, labour force participation and worked hours remain unchanged. Although effects by gender and timing of the divorce (childhood or adolescence) are similar in the short term, at age 19 girls’ educational outcomes are almost unaffected. We do not find robust differences related to child support payments and contact with co-resident fathers. We also explore a set of potential moderators, such as household income, maternal employment, access to durable goods and public transfers, which suggest that worsened educational outcomes are closely connected to post-separation economic hardship. |
| Keywords: | union dissolution; child support; education; socio-emotional well-being; Uruguay; panel data |
| JEL: | J12 J13 I30 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-09-21&r= |
| By: | Viva O. Bartkus; Wyatt Brooks; Joseph P. Kaboski; Carolyn E. Pelnik |
| Abstract: | Middlemen are ubiquitous in supply chains. In developing countries they help bring products from remote communities to end markets but may exert strong market power. We study a cooperative intervention which organizes together poor fishing communities in the Amazon — one of the poorest and most remote regions of the world — to purchase large boats in order to partially bypass middlemen and deliver their fish directly to market. We find that the intervention increases income by 27%, largely through an increase in price received, and also increases consumption. Moreover, the intervention is highly cost effective with the projected stream of income gains easily covering the cost of the investment. Finally, we formalize a model in which the market power of middlemen itself can create a poverty trap, which can be eliminated with cooperative investment. |
| JEL: | O1 O12 O13 O18 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29221&r= |
| By: | Yselle F. Malah Kuete (University of Yaoundé 2, SOA, P.O. Box 1365); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | Structural change is seen by development economics theorists as a driver of sustained and sustainable economic growth. African countries that have understood this prioritize structural change policies in their national development programs in order to reduce poverty and promote employment through commodity-based industrialization. How does infrastructure development contribute to this process? The purpose of this paper is to answer this question by examining empirically whether the state of infrastructure development in Africa stimulates structural change, understood as the development of the manufacturing sector. After outlining the state of infrastructure quality in the region, and discussing some theoretical channels through which this relationship might pass, we estimate fixed effects models from 52 African countries over the period 2003-2018. Results which are robust to controlling for institutional dynamics and the natural resource curse hypothesis suggest that structural change in Africa is optimized with the development of infrastructure, particularly energy and information and communication technologies. Among other policy implications arising from these findings, the establishment of partnership projects with other developed countries in terms of superstructure for enhanced industrialization is recommended. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure development, structural change, manufacturing sector, Africa |
| JEL: | N67 N77 C23 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/040&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Levine (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores conceptual barriers to shifting the foundation of transport planning from mobility to accessibility. These barriers include an implicit belief that accessibility must bring other benefits to be of value, the idea that individuals’ failure to minimise costs in their transport choices somehow challenges the derived nature of transport demand; and a lack of techniques for project-level accessibility analysis. The paper also presents a technique for overcoming the latter barrier. |
| Date: | 2020–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2020/23-en&r= |
| By: | Wu, Xueying; Sadiq, Muhammad; Chien, Fengsheng; Ngo, Quang-Thanh; Nguyen, Anh-Tuan; Trinh, The-Truyen |
| Abstract: | The study estimates the long-run dynamics of a cleaner environment in promoting the gross domestic product of E7 and G7 countries. The recent study intends to estimate the climate change mitigation factor for a cleaner environment with the GDP of E7 countries and G7 countries from 2010 to 2018. For long-run estimation, second-generation panel data techniques including augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillip-Peron technique and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) techniques are applied to draw the long-run inference. The results of the study are robust with VECM technique. The outcomes of the study revealed that climate change mitigation indicators significantly affect the GDP of G7 countries than that of E7 countries. The GDP of both E7 and G7 countries is found depleting due to less clean environment. However, green financing techniques helps to clean the environment and reinforce the confidence of policymakers on the elevation of green economic growth in G7 and E7 countries. Furthermore, study results shown that a 1% rise in green financing index improves the environmental quality by 0.375% in G7 countries, while it purifies 0.3920% environment in E7 countries. There is a need to reduce environmental pollution, shift energy generation sources towards alternative, innovative and green sources. The study also provides different policy implications for the stakeholders guiding to actively promote financial hedging for green financing. So that climate change and environmental pollution reduction could be achieved effectively. The novelty of the study lies in study framework. |
| Keywords: | Cleaner environment; Green financing; Climate change; E7 countries; G7 countries |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109675&r= |
| By: | Daiju Narita; Ichiro Sato; Daikichi Ogawada; Akiko Matsumura |
| Abstract: | While financing for climate adaptation projects is gaining prominence worldwide, the methods of performance evaluation of adaptation-related projects have not as yet been established. One reason for this is that future project effects are subject to deep uncertainty. As a case study of the evaluation of adaptation benefits under the uncertainty of climate change, we evaluate the robustness of the project performance of a Kenyan irrigation development project. Based on a simulation analysis carried out using the Robust Decision Making (RDM) approach, we assess the robustness of the positive expected outcomes of the project and find that the development of irrigation facilities, especially when combined with the soft adaptation measures of farming practices, could bring about an increase of household income in the future under a large variety of conditions. These beneficial effects are partly a reflection of the reduced damage from climate change achieved by the project. We conduct this study by utilizing the available resources and capacity of a development agency that has a scope of future applications to actual infrastructure projects. In this paper, we also discuss factors that could become relevant for the application of RDM-based project evaluation in the field of climate finance. |
| Keywords: | climate change adaptation, climate finance, uncertainty, Robust Decision Making (RDM), economic assessment, irrigation, agriculture, Africa |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:223&r= |
| By: | Assenmacher, Katrin; Glöckler, Gabriel; Holton, Sarah; Trautmann, Peter; Ioannou, Demosthenes; Mee, Simon; Alonso, Conception; Argiri, Eleni; Arigoni, Filippo; Bakk-Simon, Klára; Bergbauer, Stephanie; Bitterlich, Marie Therese; Byron, Jennifer; Carvalho, Alexandre; Catenaro, Marco; Charalampakis, Evangelos; Deroose, Marjolein; Ehrmann, Michael; Fernandez, Ricardo; Ferreira, Clodomiro; Ferrero, Giuseppe; Gardt, Marius; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gertler, Pavel; Giovannini, Alessandro; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Goodhead, Robert; Grandia, Roel; Hellström, Jenni; Hernborg, Nils; Herrala, Niko; Hoffmann, Mathias; Huertgen, Patrick; Ioannidis, Michael; Istrefi, Klodiana; Kalnberzina, Krista; Kedan, Danielle; Kenny, Geoff; Kocharkov, Georgi; Linzert, Tobias; Manrique, Marta; Márquez, Víctor; Mestre, Ricardo; Meyer, Justus; Mönch, Emanuel; Nardelli, Stefano; Newby, Elisa; Nomm, Nele; Pavlova, Lora; Penalver, Adrian; Reedik, Reet; Rieder, Kilian; Ruhe, Corina; Samarina, Anna; Šanta, Martin; Schupp, Fabian; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido; Sciot, Geert; Silgoner, Maria; Skotida, Ifigeneia; Stylianou, Aliki; Taylor, Eva; Tischer, Johannes; Tiseno, Andrea; Weber, Michael; Winkler, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the importance of central bank communication in ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy and in underpinning the credibility, accountability and legitimacy of independent central banks. It documents how communication has become a monetary policy tool in itself; one example of this being forward guidance, given its impact on inflation expectations, economic behaviour and inflation. The paper explains why and how consistent, clear and effective communication to expert and non-expert audiences is essential in an environment of an ever-increasing need by central banks to reach these audiences. Central banks must also meet the demand for more understandable information about policies and tools, while at the same time overcoming the challenge posed by the wider public’s rational inattention. Since the European Central Bank was established, the communications landscape has changed dramatically and continues to evolve. This paper outlines how better communication, including greater engagement with the wider public, could help boost people’s understanding of and trust in the Eurosystem. JEL Classification: E43, E52, E58 |
| Keywords: | accountability, central bank, forward guidance, transparency, trust |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021274&r= |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister |
| Abstract: | Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy developments. This paper reviews empirical approaches for recovering market-based expectations. It starts by laying out the two canonical modeling frameworks that form the backbone for estimating risk premia and highlights the proliferation of risk pricing factors that result in a wide range of different asset-price-based expectation measures. It then describes a key methodological innovation to evaluate the empirical plausibility of risk premium estimates and to identify the most accurate market-based expectation measure. The usefulness of this general approach is illustrated for price expectations in the global oil market. Then, the paper provides an overview of the body of empirical evidence for monetary policy and inflation expectations with a special emphasis on market-specific characteristics that complicate the quest for the best possible market-based expectation measure. Finally, it discusses a number of economic applications where market expectations play a key role for evaluating economic models, guiding policy analysis, and deriving shock measures. |
| Keywords: | futures markets, risk premia, monetary policy, commodities, market expectations, financial markets, asset pricing, return regressions, affine term structure models, risk adjustment, model uncertainty, forecasting, expectational shocks |
| JEL: | C52 E31 E43 E52 G14 Q43 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9305&r= |
| By: | Kadija Charni (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé); Nathalie Greenan (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM], CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); Janna Besamusca (Utrecht University [Utrecht]) |
| Abstract: | In this report, we explore the feasibility of a European database of working conditions clauses in collective agreements in EU countries. Our proposal builds on the methodology developed by the University of Amsterdam (UvA) and the WageIndicator Foundation to build an international database of collective agreements and in the BARCOM (VS/2016/0106) and COLBAR Europe (VS/2019/0077) projects to collect and code European collective agreements. It also builds on the CNAM-CEET CAGE project which has developed a research infrastructure in France to study the outcomes of negotiations on gender professional equality and employer behaviour. The idea is to combine structured information from an employer-level survey with coded information from a database of collective agreements and unstructured data from an archive recording the full content of the OCR processed texts of collective agreements. Such an infrastructure would allow better analysis of the bargaining process, bargaining outcomes and employer behaviour. Using the example of gender equality clauses, we demonstrate the feasibility of building such an infrastructure and the added value of using coded information and text mining methods for comparative analysis. Two European surveys, the ECS and ESES, can be combined with the database of collective agreements at individual and/or sectoral level. We explore how collective agreements at sector and company level should be collected to achieve some form of representativity. |
| Abstract: | Dans ce rapport, nous explorons la faisabilité d'une base de données européenne relative aux clauses concernant les conditions de travail dans les conventions collectives des pays de l'UE. Notre proposition s'appuie sur la méthodologie développée par l'Université d'Amsterdam (UvA) et la Fondation WageIndicator pour construire une base de données internationale de conventions collectives et dans les projets BARCOM (VS/2016/0106) et COLBAR Europe (VS/2019/0077) pour collecter et coder les conventions collectives européennes. Il s'appuie également sur le projet CAGE du CNAM-CEET qui a développé une infrastructure de recherche en France pour étudier les résultats des négociations sur l'égalité professionnelle femmes-hommes et le comportement des employeurs. L'idée est de combiner des informations structurées provenant d'une enquête auprès des employeurs avec des informations codées provenant d'une base de données de conventions collectives et des données non structurées provenant d'une archive enregistrant le contenu intégral des textes océrisé des conventions collectives. Une telle infrastructure permettrait une meilleure analyse du processus de négociation, des résultats de la négociation et du comportement des employeurs. En utilisant l'exemple des clauses d'égalité professionelle femmes-hommes, nous démontrons la faisabilité de la construction d'une telle infrastructure et la valeur ajoutée de l'utilisation des informations codées et des méthodes d'exploration de texte pour l'analyse comparative. Deux enquêtes européennes, l'ECS et l'ESES, peuvent être combinées avec la base de données des conventions collectives au niveau individuel et/ou sectoriel. Nous étudions comment les conventions collectives au niveau du secteur et de l'entreprise devraient être collectées pour atteindre une certaine forme de représentativité. |
| Keywords: | Collective bargaining agreement,Gender equality,Data integration |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03339843&r= |
| By: | Narayana R. Kocherlakota |
| Abstract: | I reconsider the long-standing consensus view that macroeconomic stabilization should rely on monetary policy, not fiscal policy. I use an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model that is parameterized so as to admit a bubble in public debt. In this context, I show that it is possible to stabilize either inflation or output in response to aggregate shocks by varying only fiscal policy (that is, lump-sum uniform transfers). In contrast, when the public debt bubble is large, it is impossible to stabilize either inflation or output by varying only interest rates (monetary policy). The theoretical analysis implies that, in the presence of a large public debt bubble, fiscal policy is a more reliable stabilization tool than monetary policy. |
| JEL: | E58 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29226&r= |
| By: | Carole Ropars-Collet (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Philippe Le Goffe (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Qods Lefnatsa (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Catch-and-release (C&R) could be an interesting management tool in recreational fisheries as long as mortality remains low and the anglers' well-being does not drop. We used a choice experiment to examine the potential of C&R angling as a monitoring tool for the salmon recreational fishery in Brittany (France) in summer 2017. Anglers were asked to choose between hypothetical fishing day trips differing in terms of their combination of relevant attributes and levels and distance to travel. From the analysis of respondents' trade-offs between the fishing trip's attributes, willingness-to-pay was estimated for each level of attribute. Our results show that anglers prefer unrestrictive regulations. On average, we observe that C&R has a depressive effect on the valuation of the fishing day. However, some socioeconomic groups positively value C&R. All in all, the majority of the anglers nonetheless hold a positive valuation of a C&R fishing day, which could therefore be used to generate economic returns for the river once the total admissible capture (TAC) is reached. Lastly, the fishing season, and especially the level of river use, impacts more on the value of fishing than C&R. |
| Keywords: | Choice experiment,Catch and release,Salmon fishing,Recreational activity |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03342732&r= |
| By: | Adesoji O. Farayibi (University of Ibadan, Nigeria); Oludele Folarin (University of Ibadan, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | The human capital crisis, reflected in the weak global competitiveness of African education, has questioned the effectiveness of public spending in increasing educational outcomes in the continent. Thus, this article examines the impact of government education expenditure on educational outcomes in 31 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2000-2019 based on a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The study sheds light on the priorities of government education spending in the continent. Findings showed that the effect of government education spending on educational outcomes in SSA was driven by the measure of educational outcome used. Government spending in Africa had focused mainly on primary and secondary education to the detriment of tertiary education because it is convenient and generates political gains. Due to institutional rigidities which emanate from the governance structure, the inequitable allocation of government funding had made higher education in Africa less responsive to the changes in global knowledge and labour market demands. Therefore, the following policy agenda becomes imperative in the SSA: (i) government education spending should equitably target all education levels to improve the aggregate human capital development indicators in the region. (ii) There is a need to enhance government institutions' capacity to increase their level of effectiveness and performance. |
| Keywords: | Government Education Expenditure; Educational Outcomes Higher Education; System GMM; sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | E24 E52 E62 J17 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/048&r= |
| By: | Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Sara Banfi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies) |
| Abstract: | The CSIL Report The world market for safety syringes provides a comprehensive market intelligence on the global level of safety syringes. The findings of the Report focus on safety syringes, but during the analysis other types of syringes have been considered. The research aims at better understanding the global market for safety syringes, its international competitive landscape, and the new opportunities arising from the evolution of its regulation frameworks and the COVID-19 outbreaks. GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE: Europe (European Union + UK); USA; Canada; Asia-Pacific (Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand); Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and United Arab Emirates); South Americ (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela); Others (Rest of the world). LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK: The Report lists the main injection safety legislations signed by governments and international organizations, which are leading the transition from traditional to safety-engineered syringes in health care settings in order to reduce needle stick injuries. MARKET OVERVIEW AND FORECASTS: Syringes imports and exports are broken down by country and by geographical area of destination/origin (the time frame considered is 2009-2019); The global consumption of syringes is reported in volume and value and it is broken down by geographical area, by application and product (the time frame considered is: 2010-2019), in this section is estimated the size of the market for medical and surgical syringes for human applications and the market for safety syringes (value and volume, 2019); The forecasted evolution of the demand for medical and surgical syringes as well as for safety syringes is provided in volume for the years 2018-2025. COMPETITIVE SYSTEM: An analysis of the leading players selling safety syringes is provided. Sales data, market shares and short profiles of the leading players in the safety syringes industry are also available. An APPENDIX on the Covid-19 vaccine pre-purchases across the globe and total number of COVID-19 vaccinations administered in 2020 is also included. |
| JEL: | L11 L22 L68 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mst:csilre:w32&r= |
| By: | Joshua Bernstein (Indiana University); Rupal Kamdar (Indiana University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies optimal monetary policy under rational inattention: the policy maker optimally chooses her information subject to a processing constraint. Our analytical results emphasize how the policy maker’s information choices shape her expectations and the dynamics of the macroeconomy. Paying attention to demand shocks lowers output volatility and causes untracked supply shocks to drive inflation. Because persistent supply shocks have a minor impact on interest rates under full information in the New Keynesian model, the policy maker should focus her limited attention on demand shocks. Improvements in information can explain a declining slope of the empirical Phillips curve. |
| Keywords: | optimal monetary policy, rational inattention, expectations |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2021003&r= |
| By: | Alberto Alesina; Matteo F. Ferroni; Stefanie Stantcheva |
| Abstract: | Using new large-scale survey and experimental data, we investigate how respondents perceive racial inequities between Black and white Americans, what they believe causes them, and what interventions, if any, they think should be implemented to reduce them. We intentionally oversample Black respondents, cover many cities in the US, and survey both adults and very young people aged 13 to 17. In the experimental parts, we consider the causal impact of information on racial inequities (such as the evolution of the Black-white earnings gap or the differences in mobility for Black and white children) and explanations for these inequities (i.e., the deep-seated roots and long-lasting consequences of systemic racism) on respondents' views. Although there is heterogeneity in how respondents perceive the magnitude of current racial gaps in economic conditions and opportunities, the biggest discrepancies are in how they explain them. There is a stark partisan gap among white respondents, particularly in the perceived causes of racial inequities and what should be done about them. White Democrats and Black respondents are much more likely to attribute racial inequities to adverse past and present circumstances and want to act on them with race-targeted and general redistribution policies. At the same time, white Republicans are more likely to attribute racial gaps to individual actions. These views are already deeply entrenched in teenagers based on their race and their parents' political affiliation. A policy decomposition shows that the perceived causes of racial inequities correlate most strongly with support for race-targeted or general redistribution policies, a finding confirmed by the experimental results. |
| JEL: | D31 D72 H23 H24 H41 J15 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29245&r= |
| By: | Verónica Amarante (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Cecilia Rossel (Universidad Católica del Uruguay. Departamento de Ciencias Sociales.) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the intrahousehold allocation of housework and paid work in five Latin American countries. The study of intrahousehold decisions in a region where gender inequality is higher than in the developed world and where a high proportion of women are excluded from paid work is important to disentangle how existing theories for the developed world apply to more unequal contexts. We carry out OLS regressions using harmonized time-use surveys for Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay to consider the relationship between earnings and housework, in the framework of the dependency, gender deviance neutralization, and autonomy hypothesis. We find that in Latin America, female housework decisions are better associated with women´s absolute earnings. The econometric evidence compatible with the dependence hypothesis, or even with compensatory gender display for some countries, tends to disappear when absolute earnings are considered to understand women’s time devoted to household work. The significance that women´s monetary resources have in shaping intra-household decisions in Latin America offers new evidence to incorporate into policy design, highlighting the crucial links between labor market performance and intrahousehold gender equity in the region. |
| Keywords: | unpaid family work; Time use; Housework/division of labor, Latin America |
| JEL: | C81 D13 C83 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-08-21&r= |
| By: | Buccella, Domenico; Fanti, Luciano; Gori, Luca |
| Abstract: | This research contributes to the theory of cost-reducing R&D investments by offering a tractable three-stage non-cooperative Cournot duopoly game in which R&D-investing firms choose whether to disclose R&D-related information to the rival. Though in a noncooperative context firms have no incentive to unilaterally disclose information on their costreducing R&D activity to prevent the rival from freely appropriate it, this work shows that there is room for the government to design an optimal policy aimed at incentivising unilaterally each owner towards R&D disclosure. Under this welfare improving policy, sharing R&D-related information becomes a Pareto efficient Nash equilibrium strategy of selfish firms. These findings suggest that introducing public subsidies aimed at favouring R&D disclosure represents a win-win result, eliminating the so far established - and unpleasant for both firms and society - non-disclosing outcome. |
| Keywords: | Cost-reducing innovation,Nash equilibrium,Government,Social welfare |
| JEL: | D43 L13 O31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:940&r= |
| By: | David Adeabah (University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana); Charles Andoh (University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Albert Gemegah (University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana) |
| Abstract: | Reputation is an important factor for long-term stability, competitiveness, and success of all contemporary organizations. It is even more important for banks because of their systemic role in a modern economy. In this study, we present a review of the current body of literature regarding reputational risks in banks. Using the systematic literature review method, 35 articles published from 2010 to 2020 are reviewed and analyzed. It was found that only developed countries (i.e., the United States and Europe) have been actively contributing to research on reputational risks in banks, suggesting that reputational risks management of banks has not gained the global attention it deserves. Additionally, issues of mitigation of reputational risks are identified as the most frequently studied research theme with a paucity of research on measurement, determinants, and implications of reputational risks at both micro and macro levels. Furthermore, it was noticed that reputational risk management frameworks are still underdeveloped. In theory, this review should help with a strong conceptualization of reputational risks management in banks and guide further research. |
| Keywords: | reputational risks; banks; systematic literature review |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/028&r= |
| By: | Kai He; Dongdong Hu; Nuerxiati Abudurexiti; Hasanjan Sayit |
| Abstract: | In the papers Carmona and Durrleman [7] and Bjerksund and Stensland [1], closed form approximations for spread call option prices were studied under the log normal models. In this paper, we give an alternative closed form formula for the price of spread call options under the log-normal models also. Our formula can be seen as a generalization of the closed-form formula presented in Bjerksund and Stensland [1] as their formula can be obtained by selecting special parameter values to our formula. Numerical tests show that our formula performs better for certain range of model parameters than the closed-form formula presented in Bjerksund and Stensland [1]. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05431&r= |
| By: | Bruno S. Frey und Reiner Eichenberger |
| Abstract: | The institution of a single CEO (Chief Executive Offi- cer) has significant weaknesses. The CEO's interests diverge from those of the owners and their representants as well as other top managers. Assigning so much power to a single person is risky. Changing a CEO incurs high costs. However, the traditional alter- native, a top management team working collectively, also has serious drawbacks. A new governance institution – a team of rotating chief executive officers – combines the advan- tages of the two traditional models without being fraught with their disadvantages. |
| Keywords: | Governance; CEO; board of directors; supervisory board; management team; rotation |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2021-34&r= |
| By: | Fabien Perez (CREST, ENSAE, INSEE); Guillaume Hollard (CREST, EcolePolytechnique, CNRS); Radu Vranceanu (ESSEC Business School and THEMA) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes within-session test/retest data from four different tasks used to elicit risk attitudes. Maximum-likelihood and non-parametric estimations on 16 datasets reveal that, irrespective of the task, measurement error accounts for approximately 50% of the variance of the observed variable capturing risk attitudes. The consequences of this large noise element are evaluated by means of simulations. First, as predicted by theory, the coefficient on the risk measure in univariate OLS regressions is attenuated to approximately half of its true value, irrespective of the sample size. Second, the risk-attitude measure may spuriously appear to be insignificant, especially in small samples. Unlike the measurement error arising from within-individual variability, rounding has little influence on significance and biases. In the last part, we show that instrumental-variable estimation and the ORIV method, developed by Gillen et al. (2019), both of which require test/retest data, can eliminate the attenuation bias, but do not fully solve the insignificance problem in small samples. Increasing the number of observations to N=500 removes most of the insignificance issues. |
| Keywords: | Measurement error, Risk-aversion, Test/retest, ORIV, Sample size |
| JEL: | C18 C26 C91 D81 |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2021-13&r= |
| By: | Enjuto Martinez, Regina; Qu, Yuanyuan; Howell, Jude |
| Abstract: | The government of the Communist Party of China (CPC) rolled out a national policy to contract out social and welfare services to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in 2013. This study explores how government contracting of services affects NGOs. We examine three areas: marketization, financial dependency, and autonomy. We find significant convergence of the effects of contracting on NGOs in China with NGOs’ experiences in liberal democratic countries, despite divergent political regimes. Found effects are explained by the combination of the authoritarian government of the CPC with the neoliberal governance structures introduced by contracting. Convergence with international experience despite divergent political regimes is attributed to the neoliberal essence of the policy of contracting of services. |
| Keywords: | service contracting; welfare; NGOs; authoritarianism; China; ES/P001726/1; Springer deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111521&r= |
| By: | Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Camara K. Obeng (University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana); Peter Y. Mwinlaaru (University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana) |
| Abstract: | Efforts to spur growth in sub-Sahara Africa have been intensified amid structural and institutional constraints. Tax revenue, the chief source of funding for developmental purposes in SSA remains low and unstable. In fact, the SSA sub-region finds it difficult generating tax revenue up to 20 per cent of GDP. One factor that has not caught the attention of policymakers in terms of its impact on tax revenue performance is exchange rate volatility. Using macrodata spanning 1984 to 2017 for 21 countries, we provide empirical evidence from a panel autoregressive distributed lag technique to show that exchange rate volatility is directly harmful to tax revenue performance, and indirectly through trade openness. |
| Keywords: | Cointegration, Exchange Rate Volatility, GARCH, Sub-Sahara Africa, Tax Revenue |
| JEL: | E5 H2 H7 F6 O4 Q55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/031&r= |
| By: | Laczó, Ferenc |
| Abstract: | In this study the concept of commodities is formulated according to the utility theory; following the principle of price elasticity of demand, differences of uncompensated and compensated price changes will be clearly interpreted; as the uncompensated and compensated price changes have different averaging properties, so two different CPI formulas need to be defined; arbitrary price changes are broken down into uncompensated and compensated price change to obtain a complete, dual CPI formula. |
| Keywords: | Economic Value of a Commodity; Uncompensated vs. Compensated Price Change; Common Units in Measurements; Dual CPI Formula; Supply-Driven and Demand-Driven Economy |
| JEL: | E31 |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109810&r= |
| By: | Filipe R. Campante; Ruben Durante; Andrea Tesei |
| Abstract: | We survey the empirical literature in economics on the impact of media technologies on social capital. Motivated by a simple model of information and collective action, we cover a range of different outcomes related to social capital, from social and political participation to interpersonal trust, in its benign and destructive manifestations. The impact of media technologies hinges on their content ("information" vs "entertainment"), their effectiveness in fostering coordination, and the networks they create, as well as individual characteristics and media consumption choices. |
| JEL: | D71 D72 D74 D83 D84 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29230&r= |
| By: | Alexander Tarasov; Robertas Zubrickas |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with cross-dependencies between endogenous market structure and tax policy. We extend the Mirrlees (1971) model of income taxation with a monopolistic competition framework with general additively separable consumer preferences. We show that price and variety distortions resulting from the market structure imply that income tax policy needs to be complemented with commodity or firm taxation to achieve the constrained social optimum. We calibrate the model and find that, when choosing optimal tax policy, the failure to account for the market structure results in a welfare loss of 1:77 percent. Motivated by practical cases, we study a policy regime that is solely based on income taxation. Under this policy regime, departures from the social optimum can be compensated by lower and less regressive income taxes than those obtained under the regime with all forms of taxation. We also examine the role of consumer preferences for policy outcomes and show that it is substantially amplified by an endogenous market structure. |
| Keywords: | tax policy, monopolistic competition, variety effect, consumer preferences, endogenous labor |
| JEL: | D43 H21 L13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9309&r= |
| By: | Carlo Marinelli |
| Abstract: | We revisit two classical problems: the determination of the law of the underlying with respect to a risk-neutral measure on the basis of option prices, and the pricing of options with convex payoffs in terms of prices of call options with the same maturity (all options are European). The formulation of both problems is expressed in a language loosely inspired by the theory of inverse problems, and several proofs of the corresponding solutions are provided that do not rely on any special assumptions on the law of the underlying and that may, in some cases, extend results currently available in the literature. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05564&r= |
| By: | Saglam, Ismail |
| Abstract: | Revelation principle implies that given any admissible social welfare function, the outcome of Baron and Myerson's (1982) (BM) optimal direct-revelation mechanism under incentive constraints cannot be dominated by any other mechanism in expected utilities. However, since the expected total surplus varies with a change in the social welfare function, Pareto improvements should be possible if the monopolist and consumers can agree, by means of side payments that reveal no additional information to the regulator, on the use of an alternative social welfare function which would generate a lower expected deadweight loss. We check the validity of this intuition by integrating the BM mechanism with an induced cooperative bargaining model where unilateral pre-donation by consumers or the producer is allowed. Under this new mechanism producer's pre-donation in the ex-ante stage always leads to ex-ante Pareto improvement while a certain amount of it completely eliminates the expected deadweight loss. Moreover, if optimally designed in the interim stage, the producer's pre-donation may also lead under some cost parameters to interim (and also (ex-post) Pareto improvement. Consumers, on the other hand, have no incentive to make a unilateral pre-donation, nor to reverse the optimal pre-donation of the monopolist. |
| Keywords: | Monopoly regulation; cooperative bargaining; pre-donation. |
| JEL: | C78 D42 L51 |
| Date: | 2021–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109741&r= |
| By: | Lilas Demmou; Guido Franco |
| Abstract: | Intangible assets are an important driver of productivity and ultimately output growth. Yet, despite their aggregate rise in the past decades, productivity has continued to grow modestly in the majority of OECD countries. This is in part because many firms – particularly young and small ones - are often held back from building up intangible assets, as financing their production or acquisition is more difficult than for tangibles. Building on the analytical framework recently developed by the OECD (Demmou, Stefanescu and Arquié, 2019; Demmou, Franco and Stefanescu, 2019) and extending the empirical analysis, the paper provides evidence that easing financing restrictions is particularly beneficial for productivity in sectors that rely more intensively on intangible assets, indirectly pointing to the existence of a “financing gap” due to financial frictions. This aggregate productivity impact reflects both increases in the productivity of each firm and better allocation of labour across firms. Recognizing cross-country differences in the structure of financial systems, the policy discussion focuses on how to make the three main sources of external finance available to firms -- bank lending, equity financing, and direct government support -- more suited to fit the needs of an intangible-based economy. Finally, the paper briefly discusses the extent to which the COVID-19 crisis may have created specific challenges for intangible investment, making policy interventions in these areas more relevant and urgent. |
| Keywords: | finance, Intangible assets, productivity |
| JEL: | D24 G30 O30 O47 |
| Date: | 2021–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1681-en&r= |
| By: | Dimitra Kontana (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Stilianos Fountas (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between consumption, income, financial and housing wealth, and a long-term interest rate for the 50 US states. Using an updated set of quarterly data from 1975 to 2018, we perform panel cointegration analysis allowing for cross-sectional dependence. We obtain the following results. First, there is strong evidence for cointegration among consumption and its determinants. Second, estimates of the housing wealth and financial wealth elasticity of consumption range from 0.072 to 0.115 and 0.044 to 0.080, respectively. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is a bidirectional short-term causality between per capita consumpti on, income, and financial wealth in the short run and between all the variables in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Consumption; Financial Wealth; Housing Wealth; Wealth effects; 10-year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate; Panel Cointegration; Granger Causality. |
| JEL: | E21 E44 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2021_10&r= |
| By: | Hannah Illing; Johannes F. Schmieder; Simon Trenkle |
| Abstract: | Existing research has shown that job displacement leads to large and persistent earnings losses for men, but evidence for women is scarce. Using administrative data from Germany, we apply an event study design in combination with propensity score matching and a reweighting technique to directly compare men and women who are displaced from similar jobs and firms. Our results show that after a mass layoff, women’s earnings losses are about 35% higher than men’s, with the gap persisting five years after job displacement. This is partly explained by a higher propensity of women to take up part-time or marginal employment following job loss, but even full-time wage losses are almost 50% (or 5 percentage points) higher for women than for men. We then show that on the household level there is no evidence of an added worker effect, independent of the gender of the job loser. Finally, we document that parenthood magnifies the gender gap sharply: while fathers of young children have smaller earnings losses than men in general, mothers of young children have much larger earnings losses than other women. |
| JEL: | J0 J16 J3 J63 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29251&r= |
| By: | Ajayi, Temitope Abraham |
| Abstract: | Diversification of the Nigerian economy from oil-based to other non-oil sectors has become a recurrent economic solution to the growing challenges associated with the Nigerian economy. For the past 20 years of uninterrupted democratic government in Nigeria, the successive federal governments have focused on the development of the agricultural sector as a credible option for diversification, partly for the past positive roles of the agricultural sector in the Nigerian economy before the discovery of oil. Using the multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the data obtained from 1999 to 2019, this study applied the vector error correction (VEC) model to determine the impacts of diversification of the Nigerian economy on economic growth, focusing on the manufacturing and the agricultural sectors. To determine the underlying impact of the democratic experience in Nigeria with diversification, we utilised the political rights of the population as a proxy variable. The empirical results showed that there exists cointegration among the variables used to represent the manufacturing and the agricultural sectors, political rights, and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate within the Nigerian economy. The manufacturing sector has a positive impact on the growth of the Nigerian economy; however, the agricultural sector and the political rights of the Nigerian people have adverse effects on the real GDP growth rate, in the short run. The Granger Causality tests found no evidence of causality among the variables. This study concludes that the diversification policy of the Nigerian government should be multi-faceted and that the political rights of the population are essential for the realisation of the diversification goal. |
| Keywords: | Diversification, Nigeria, GDP, Cointegration. |
| JEL: | O1 O11 O14 O17 Q1 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2020–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109271&r= |
| By: | Hajime Tomura (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | Daily estimates of the effective reproduction number for new coronavirus based on reporting dates are regressed on real household expenditures per household on eating out, traveling, and apparel shopping, as well as mobility in public transportation, using publicly available daily nationwide data from February 15, 2020, to February 1, 2021 in Japan. The effects of absolute humidity, the declaration of states of emergency, and the year-end and new-year holiday period are controlled through dummy variables. The lagged infectious effect of economic activities due to incubation periods is also taken into account. Estimated regression coeffcients indicate that real household ex- penditures for cafe and bar had larger effects on the effective reproduction number per value of spending than the other types of household expenditures in explanatory vari- ables during the sample period. Thus, a loss of aggregate demand is minimized if the effective reproduction number is lowered by restricting only household consumption of cafe and bar. The posterior means of simulations based on the estimated regression coeffcients, however, imply that even if a self-restraint on packaged domestic travels and an endogenous decline in mobility are taken into account, it will be necessary to cut household consumption of cafe and bar by more than 80% of the 2019 level, in order to keep the e ective reproduction number below one on average. |
| Keywords: | new coronavirus; effective reproduction number; consumption; mobility. |
| JEL: | E21 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2107&r= |
| By: | Jaime AragÓn Falomir (Université des Antilles (Pôle Guadeloupe) - UA - Université des Antilles, CRILLASH - Centre de Recherches Interdisciplinaires en Lettres, Langues, Arts et Sciences Humaines - UA - Université des Antilles) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this article is to analyze and determine the consequences of the health pandemic in the context of worsening inequalities. For this research, we follow the literature on inequalities, mobility, elites and democracy that has identified the consequences of COVID-19 in political, economic and social life in Mexico. By intertwining these three variables, we show how a sanitary crisis is revealing, amplifying, making visible and creating new inequalities. We also show that the burdens with which Mexico arrives will be aggravated by the pandemic. We note that the elites should play a more central role in contributing to the reduction of socio-economic gaps and, above all, understand that perception is not always reality. Then, we note that pandemic working conditions have already revealed new inequalities by exemplifying it with data showing that remote work is a privilege of minorities. This paper contributes to the state of the literature on COVID-19, Mexico and inequalities by seeking to understand how a pandemic heterogeneously affects the world, its societies and especially the different socio-economic strata. |
| Abstract: | Este articulo tiene como objetivo analizar y determinar las consecuencias que provoca(rá) la pandemia sanitaria en pleno contexto de agravamiento de desigualdades. Para esta investigación, seguimos la literatura sobre desigualdades, movilidad, elites y democracia que ha identificado las consecuencias de la COVID-19 tanto en la vida política, económica y social en México. Mediante el entrecruzamiento dichas tres variables mostramos como una crisis sanitaria está revelando, ampliando, visibilizando y creando nuevas desigualdades. Asimismo, evidenciamos que los lastres con que llega México se verán agravados por la pandemia. Observamos que las elites deberían tener un rol más central para la contribuir a la reducción de brechas socio-económicas y sobre todo entender que la percepción no es siempre la realidad. Luego, damos cuenta de que las condiciones laborales pandémicas ya revelaron las nuevas desigualdades al ejemplificarlo con los datos que dan muestre que el tele-trabajo es un privilegio de minorías. Este trabajo abona en el estado de la literatura sobre COVID-19, México y desigualdades al buscar entender como una pandemia afecta de manera heterogénea al mundo, a sus sociedades y sobre todo a los distintos estratos socio-económicos. |
| Abstract: | Cet article vise à analyser et à déterminer les conséquences de la pandémie sanitaire dans le contexte de l'aggravation des inégalités. Pour cette recherche, nous suivons la littérature sur les inégalités, la mobilité, les élites et la démocratie qui a identifié les conséquences de la COVID-19 dans la vie politique, économique et sociale au Mexique. En croisant ces trois variables, nous montrons comment une crise sanitaire révèle, amplifie, rend visible et crée de nouvelles inégalités. Nous montrons également que les charges avec lesquelles arrive le Mexique seront aggravées par la pandémie. Nous constatons que les élites devraient jouer un rôle plus central pour contribuer à la réduction des écarts socio-économiques et surtout comprendre que la perception n'est pas toujours la réalité. Ensuite, on se rend compte que les conditions de travail de la pandémie ont déjà révélé les nouvelles inégalités. Cela est illustré par des données montrant que le télétravail est un privilège des minorités. Ce document contribue à l'état de la littérature sur la COVID-19, le Mexique et les inégalités en cherchant à comprendre comment une pandémie affecte le monde, ses sociétés et surtout les différentes couches socio-économiques de manière hétérogène. |
| Date: | 2021–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03344306&r= |
| By: | E. Glenn Dutcher; Regine Oexl; Dmitry Ryvkin; Tim Salmon |
| Abstract: | A debate among practicing managers is whether to use cooperative or competitive incentives for team production. While competitive incentives may drive individual effort higher, they may also lead to less help and more sabotage; an issue exacerbated when team members' abilities are varied. Using a lab experiment, we examine how increasing competitive incentives affects performance as team composition changes. We find that competitive incentives generally underperform noncompetitive incentives and a larger bonus does not generate enough effort to compensate for a loss in help. Our results help understand better how to balance out individual versus team rewards and how firms could structure teams when employees have heterogeneous abilities. |
| Keywords: | contest, help and sabotage, team composition, incentive structure |
| JEL: | C92 D01 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2021-26&r= |
| By: | Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Mark K. Armah (University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana); Emmanuel E. Asmah (University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana) |
| Abstract: | Policy recommendations for building resilient and all-inclusive societies post COVID-19 pandemic continue to dominate the media and research landscapes. However, rigorous empirical content backing such claims, particularly, on both poverty and income inequality, is hard to find. Motivated by the bleak outlook of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, as driven primarily by the floundering hydrocarbon sector, vulnerable employment, and low foreign direct investment, we analyse the poverty and income inequality effects of globalisation and resource allocation in the region. Using data from the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Database for the period 1990–2019, we provide estimates robust to several econometric techniques the pooled least square, fixed effect, random effect, and the system generalized method of moments estimators to show that: (1) while economic globalisation reduces both poverty and income inequality, social globalisation matters only for income inequality in MENA; (2) economic globalisation is remarkable in reducing income inequality through resource allocation. Policy recommendations are provided in the light of the geopolitical fragility and rise in social globalisation of the region. |
| Keywords: | Economic Integration, Financial Deepening, GMM, MENA, Globalisation, Inequality, Poverty |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F6 I3 O53 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/043&r= |
| By: | Consolo, Agostino; Koester, Gerrit; Nickel, Christiane; Porqueddu, Mario; Smets, Frank |
| Abstract: | The existence of nominal rigidities and inflation differentials between countries offers two of the main rationales for an inflation buffer in a monetary union where monetary policy is oriented towards an area-wide inflation objective. Evidence accumulated since 2003 suggests that nominal rigidities remain a prevalent feature of the euro area, with some differences as regards prices and wages. Price setting may have become more flexible and there is no evidence for any especially strong downward rigidities in price setting. At the same time, persistent downward nominal wage rigidity (DWR) provides a strong argument for a positive inflation buffer to “grease the wheels” of the euro area economy – also in order to avoid the risk of macroeconomic adjustments being managed in terms of quantities (unemployment) rather than prices when DWR is binding and particularly when productivity growth is low. Inflation differentials across euro area countries have tended to be small but persistent. For inflation dispersion in the euro area, the across countries has been more important than across regions, confirming that an inflation buffer might be especially important in a monetary union of different countries. Overall, inflation differentials were due to the rise of economic and financial imbalances in the first decade of the euro and the subsequent need for adjustment. Balassa-Samuelson effects which were highlighted in the 2003 strategy review were only a minor factor. By and large, the ECB’s inflation objective seems to have provided a sufficient margin to prevent countries from having to live with prolonged periods of excessively low inflation rates in the period 1999-2019. There were some exceptions in the second decade of the euro (from 2009-2019), when inflation in the euro area was, overall, substantially lower than during the first decade. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E24 |
| Keywords: | HICP inflation, inflation differentials, Monetary policy strategy review, nominal rigidities |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021279&r= |
| By: | Lin William Cong; Ke Tang; Bing Wang; Jingyuan Wang |
| Abstract: | We build a deep-learning-based SEIR-AIM model integrating the classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiology model with forecast modules of infection, community mobility, and unemployment. Through linking Google's multi-dimensional mobility index to economic activities, public health status, and mitigation policies, our AI-assisted model captures the populace's endogenous response to economic incentives and health risks. In addition to being an effective predictive tool, our analyses reveal that the long-term effective reproduction number of COVID-19 equilibrates around one before mass vaccination using data from the United States. We identify a "policy frontier" and identify reopening schools and workplaces to be the most effective. We also quantify protestors' employment-value-equivalence of the Black Lives Matter movement and find that its public health impact to be negligible. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10009&r= |
| By: | Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Pamela E. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the momentous rise in ICT diffusion, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement, and the expected rebound of foreign direct investment inflow to Africa from 2022, this study examines the joint effects of industrialisation and ICT diffusion on resource mobilisation in Africa. To this end, we use data on 42 African countries for the period 1996 – 2020 for the analysis. First, we provide evidence robust to several specifications from the dynamic system GMM to show that although unconditionally both industrialisation and ICT diffusion enhance (i) goods and services tax (GST), and (ii) profits, corporate and income tax (PCIT) mobilisation efforts in Africa, the effects of the former are rather remarkable in the presence of the latter. Particularly, the results show that, while ICTs amplify the effect of industrialisation on GST, only ICT usage and ICT skills matter for PCIT. Second, the study unveils ICT thresholds for complementary policies. Accordingly, industrialisation and ICTs are necessary and sufficient conditions for tax revenue mobilisation only below some ICT thresholds. Above these ICT thresholds, complementary policies are needed to maintain the overall positive incidence on tax revenue mobilisation. Policy recommendations are provided in the end. |
| Keywords: | AfCFTA; Africa; ICT access; ICT diffusion; Industrialisation; Tax; Revenue |
| JEL: | C33 F6 H2 H71 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/058&r= |
| By: | Raymond Duch (Nuffield College - University of Oxford [Oxford]); Laurence Roope (University of Oxford [Oxford], John Radcliffe Hospital [Oxford University Hospital]); Mara Violato (University of Oxford [Oxford], John Radcliffe Hospital [Oxford University Hospital]); Mf Becerra (UCHILE - Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago]); T. Robinson (Durham University); Jean-François Bonnefon (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jorge Friedman (UCHILE - Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago]); Peter Loewen (University of Toronto); P. Mamidi (Ashoka University); Alessia Melegaro (Bocconi University [Milan, Italy]); M. Blanco (Universidad del Rosario [Bogota]); J. Vargas (Universidad del Rosario [Bogota]); J. Seither (Universidad del Rosario [Bogota]); P. Candio (John Radcliffe Hospital [Oxford University Hospital], University of Birmingham [Birmingham]); Ag Cruz (University of Oxford [Oxford]); X. Hua (The University of MelbourneParkville, VIC, Australia.); Adrian Barnett (QUT - Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane]); Philip Clarke (University of Oxford [Oxford], John Radcliffe Hospital [Oxford University Hospital], The University of MelbourneParkville, VIC, Australia.) |
| Abstract: | How does the public want a COVID-19 vaccine to be allocated? We conducted a conjoint experiment asking 15,536 adults in 13 countries to evaluate 248,576 profiles of potential vaccine recipients that varied randomly on five attributes. Our sample includes diverse countries from all continents. The results suggest that in addition to giving priority to health workers and to those at high risk, the public favours giving priority to a broad range of key workers and to those on lower incomes. These preferences are similar across respondents of different education levels, incomes, and political ideologies, as well as across most surveyed countries. The public favoured COVID-19 vaccines being allocated solely via government programs, but were highly polarized in some developed countries on whether taking a vaccine should be mandatory. There is a consensus among the public on many aspects of COVID-19 vaccination which needs to be taken into account when developing and communicating roll-out strategies. |
| Keywords: | Public opinion,Public health,Vaccinations,COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03347042&r= |
| By: | Dylan Brewer (School of Economics, Georgia Institute of Technology); Alyssa Carlson (Department of Economics, University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: | We study approaches for adjusting machine learning methods when the training sample differs from the prediction sample on unobserved dimensions. The machine learning literature predominately assumes selection only on observed dimensions. Common suggestions are to re-weight or control for variables that influence selection as solutions to selection on observables. Simulation results show that selection on unobservables increases mean squared prediction error using common machine-learning algorithms. Common machine learning practices such as re-weighting or controlling for variables that influence selection into the training or testing sample often worsens sample selection bias. We suggest two control-function approaches that remove the effects of selection bias before training and find that they reduce mean-squared prediction error in simulations with a high degree of selection. We apply these approaches to predicting the vote share of the incumbent in gubernatorial elections using previously observed re-election bids. We find that ignoring selection on unobservables leads to substantially higher predicted vote shares for the incumbent than when the control function approach is used. |
| Keywords: | sample selection, machine learning, control function, inverse probability weighting |
| JEL: | C13 C31 C55 D72 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2114&r= |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to assess the nexus between governance and renewable energy consumption in sub-Saharan Africa. The focus is on 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with data from 1996 to 2016. The empirical evidence is based on Tobit regressions. It is apparent from the findings that political and institutional governance are negatively related to the consumption of renewable energy in the sampled countries. The unexpected findings are clarified and policy implications are discussed in the light of sustainable development goals. This study extends the extant literature by assessing how political governance (consisting of political stability and “voice & accountability†) and institutional governance (entailing the rule of law and corruption-control) affect the consumption of renewable energy in sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy; Governance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Sustainable development |
| JEL: | H10 Q20 Q30 O11 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/030&r= |
| By: | Eduardo Lora; Miguel Benítez; Diego Gutiérrez |
| Abstract: | Widely, 12-month or 4-quarter average labor market, inequality and poverty indicators computed from repeated cross sections of household surveys are interpreted as annual. This is a valid interpretation only when several very specific criteria are met. Annual measures of indicators such as labor participation rates differ from their 12-month- or quarterly averages except when those who participate in a month or quarter also participate the other 11 months or three quarters. The same apply to unemployment rates and poverty rates. We propose several methods to accurately annualize sub-annual data. Some rely on ancillary questions often included in household surveys, others require econometric techniques such as predictive mean matching. Using data for Colombia we present annual measures of labor participation, occupation, unemployment, per capita labor income, average per capita household income, the Gini coefficients of labor income and per-capita household income, and moderate and extreme poverty rates. |
| Keywords: | annualization, employment, income distribution, income poverty, Gini coefficient, labor income, labor participation, poverty, unemployment |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:ceqwps:113&r= |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Yapatake Kossele, Thales; Nnanna, Joseph |
| Abstract: | This study examines linkages between political stability and trade openness dynamics in a panel of 44 countries in SSA from 1996 to 2016. The empirical evidence is based on the generalized method of moments. From the findings, the negative relationship between political stability and merchandise trade is not significant while the negative relationship between political stability and trade openness (exports plus imports) is significant. Hence, the findings do not validate the tested hypothesis that political stability/no violence increases trade in the sub-region. The perspective that some forms of political stability can slow down and prevent international trade is consistent with Oslon in Rise and Decline of Nations (RADON) and recent contributions to the economic development literature which have shown that not all forms of political stability are development friendly because much depends on the extent to which stability translates into, inter alia, good governance. The principal policy implication is that standards of political governance need to be boosted in order to improve the anticipated effects of political stability on trade, especially in the light of the ambitious African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Other policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Political Stability; Trade; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | F52 K42 O17 O55 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109837&r= |
| By: | Bianchi, Milo; Luomaranta, Henri |
| Abstract: | We explore how the separation between ownership and control a§ects Örm productivity. Using administrative panel data on the universe of limited liability Örms in Finland, we document a substantial increase in productivity when the CEO obtains majority ownership or when the majority owner becomes the CEO. We exploit plausibly exogenous variations to CEO turnover, induced by shocks to the CEO spouseís health. Extending the analysis beyond typical samples of large public Örms, we show that our e§ects are stronger in medium-sized private Örms. We also investigate possible mechanisms and provide suggestive evidence that increased ownership boosts CEOís e§ort at work. |
| Keywords: | agency costs;Örm productivity,;CEO ownership. |
| JEL: | G30 M12 D24 E23 L25 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125982&r= |
| By: | Hitch, J.; Firth, I.; Hampson, G.; Jofre-Bonet, M.; Garau, M.; Garrison, L.; Cookson, G. |
| Abstract: | The US spends more on healthcare than any other country in the world. H.R. 3 is a recent policy proposal aimed at reducing national spending on prescription drugs, one component of overall healthcare spending. Drug manufacturers would be required to negotiate prices with the US government, and prices would be capped at a level based on the prices of the drug in a set of foreign countries. Evaluation of a policy with such large potential impact on pharmaceutical revenues must consider potential negative effects on incentives to innovate. However, the relationship between prices (and revenues) and new drug approvals is uncertain, and there are significant limitations with the existing policy analysis. This short executive summary report summarises the methods and main insights from a study into the likely impacts of H.R. 3 on outcomes related to (bio)pharmaceutical innovation. The study consisted of two workstreams - 1) a set of interviews with key decision-makers in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and healthcare investment industries, and 2) an expert elicitation exercise with academic and industry-oriented economists. After summarising the methods separately, the document concludes with the main insights across the two workstreams |
| Keywords: | Economics of Innovation |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ohe:conrep:002370&r= |
| By: | Nicola Maaser (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University); Thomas Stratmann (Department of Economics, George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | We develop a theoretical model of voting behavior in committees when members differ in influence and receive payoffs that condition on the individual vote and the collective decision. Applied to a group decision involving moral costs, the model predicts that the distribution of decision-making power affects committee members’ incentives to make immoral choices: More influential agents tend to support the immoral choice, while less influential agents free-ride. A skewed power distribution makes immoral collective choices more likely. We then present results of a laboratory experiment that studies committee members’ voting behavior and collective choices under different distributions of decision-making power. As hypothesized, we find that the frequency of immoral decisions is positively related to an agent’s voting power. |
| Keywords: | Moral decision-making, Committees, Decision rules, Deception, Institutions, Threshold public good games, Laboratory experiments |
| JEL: | D71 C92 D02 H41 |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2021-11&r= |
| By: | Hugo Molina (ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Alliances of buyers to negotiate input prices with suppliers are commonplace. Using pre- and post-alliances data on household purchases of bottled water, I develop a structural model of bilateral oligopoly to estimate the effects of three alliances formed by retailers on their bargaining power vis-à-vis manufacturers and retail prices paid by consumers. Results provide evidence of a countervailing buyer power effect that reduces retail prices by roughly 7%. Exploring determinants of buyer power, I find that changes in retailers' bargaining ability play an important role in the countervailing force exerted by the alliances which, otherwise, would have not been profitable. |
| Keywords: | Bilateral oligopoly,Countervailing buyer power,Bargaining,Antitrust policy |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03340176&r= |
| By: | Yann Braouezec (IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]); Keyvan Kiani (IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]) |
| Abstract: | Why do banks decide to reach their target capital ratio by selling assets and/or issuing new shares? To answer this question, we offer a simple framework in which each channel of adjustment is costly; underwriting and dilution costs for equity issuance, profit reduction and price impact for asset sale. We make the assumption that the aim of the bank is to minimize the total adjustment cost subject to the target's constraint and we derive its optimal strategy. The solution is formulated in terms of two critical thresholds for which we give an explicit formula. We then compare our model's predictions to the decisions taken by two European systemic banks (Deutsche Bank and UniCredit) to issue new shares in 2017 and for which the target ratio was publicly disclosed. We show that the predictions of the model are consistent with the observed decisions. |
| Keywords: | Equity issuance,asset sale,price impact,target capital ratio,systemic banks |
| Date: | 2021–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03341768&r= |
| By: | Théophile Azomahou (AERC - African Economic Research Consortium); Bity Diene (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Adrien Gosselin-Pali (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Many developing countries are facing an increasing prevalence of obesity and persistent undernutrition often referred to as the double burden of malnutrition (DBM). However, few empirical studies investigate the dynamics of this status over time and particularly when measured at the household level. This paper analyzes transition and persistence patterns of the DBM and obesity using South African household data spanning over 2008-2017. To test whether the DBM (the coexistence of at least one obese and one underweight individual in a household) is either a transitory or a persistent phenomenon, we use a dynamic random-effects probit model with unobserved heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that DBM is a transitory phenomenon as most double burden households over one period do not remain so in the subsequent waves. On the other hand, we find that obesity is a persistent status at the household level. Lastly, DBM households in t − 1 appear to become obese in t. These widespread nutritional issues require appropriate measures such as double-duty actions. |
| Keywords: | Double burden of malnutrition,Obesity,South Africa |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03338304&r= |
| By: | Frederic Basso (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Julien Bouille (LIRIS - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en innovations sociétales - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes); Julien Troiville (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes) |
| Abstract: | This article examines vertical dimension as a metaphorical representation of ethical consumption by testing the connection between ethical consumption and high verticality, and its implications for consumers when considering fair-trade products. This research first shows that the representation of ethical consumption in terms of high verticality manifests in a strong implicit association between moral virtues underpinning fair-trade consumption (e.g., justice, solidarity) and "up" (Study 1). This research then demonstrates that consumers explicitly associate fair-trade products with an elevated position (Study 2), and that a match between fair-trade products and increased physical elevation results in heightened altruistic behavior (Study 3). In addition, this article reveals that greater familiarity with fair-trade products enhances this metaphorical representation and its downstream effects on altruistic behavior (Studies 2 and 3). The theoretical and managerial implications of the present research are discussed in conclusion. |
| Keywords: | Fair trade,Ethical consumption,Conceptual metaphor,Verticality,Altruistic behavior |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03331808&r= |
| By: | Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Felix Kubler; Andrey Polbin; Simon Scheidegger |
| Abstract: | Carbon taxation is a widely proposed and in some countries already adopted means to limit anthropogenic climate change. This paper studies carbon taxation using an 18-region, 80- period overlapping generations model. We focus on carbon policy that delivers present and future mankind the highest uniform percentage welfare gain. The policy combines global carbon taxation and region- and generation-specific net transfers. In our main calibration, uniform welfare-improving carbon tax policy can make those agents already here and those yet to come, no matter their location, 4.35 percent better off. Achieving (such) equal proportionate gains, which may be needed for universal support, requires major interregional as well as intergenerational transfers. Universal support, though, is not essential. For example, even absent participation by China, whose projected carbon emissions are massive, the rest of the world can still materially limit the carbon externality. However, absent China, their optimal carbon tax is roughly half as large, and the uniform welfare-improving gain is less than three-fifths as large. |
| JEL: | H23 O44 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29224&r= |
| By: | Torres Gómez, Edwin Esteban; Argüello Cuervo, Luis Ricardo |
| Abstract: | Resumen: El contrabando técnico representa un problema para los hacedores de política económica pues tiene efectos perversos en temas fundamentales como la hacienda pública, la competencia de mercado y la informalidad. Sin embargo, a pesar de ser un problema tan importante son pocos los esfuerzos empíricos que se han hecho para estudiar los incentivos que están detrás de esta práctica ilegal, tanto a nivel global como para el caso colombiano. En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo teórico a partir del cual se estudian los incentivos para la existencia del contrabando, y sus conclusiones se contrastan con una aplicación empírica en la que se utilizan datos de importaciones (reporte de origen y destino) de 24 sectores económicos (583 productos) provenientes de 84 países entre 1998 y 2013. Con estos datos se estima un modelo de panel de datos en el que se encuentra que hay una relación positiva entre la corrupción y el contrabando y también entre los aranceles y el contrabando técnico, indicando que se presenta una mayor subfacturación en productos que tienen aranceles altos, y provienen de países más corruptos. ABSTRACT: Technical smuggling represents a problem for economic policy makers, because it has perverse effects on fundamental issues such as public finance, market competition and informality. However, despite being such an important problem, few empirical efforts have been made to study the incentives behind this illegal practice, even at the global level, such as for the colombian case. In this paper we develop a teorethical model to study the incentives for the existence of this kind of smuggling, and its conclussions are contrasted with an empirical aplication in which we use data for imports (origin and destination reports) of 24 economic sectors (583 products) imported by Colombia from 84 countries between 1998 and 2013. With these data we estimate a panel data model in which we find a positive relationship between corruption and trade misinvoicing, and between tariffs and trade misinvoicing, indicating that there is a higher under-invoicing in products that have high tariffs and come from more corrupt countries. |
| Keywords: | Contrabando, Aranceles, Corrupción |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F19 D73 |
| Date: | 2019–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:019614&r= |
| By: | Sylvain Dejean (CEREGE - CEntre de REcherche en GEstion - EA 1722 - Université de Poitiers - ULR - Université de La Rochelle - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - Université de Poitiers); Sophie Tarascou (CEREGE - CEntre de REcherche en GEstion - EA 1722 - Université de Poitiers - ULR - Université de La Rochelle - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - Université de Poitiers) |
| Abstract: | Le déploiement de la fibre optique est une condition nécessaire pour relever les défis posés par l'économie numérique du XXIe siècle. Si 80% des français se voient promettre à l'horizon 2022 d'avoir accès à la fibre à domicile, nous savons encore peu de choses sur les disparités locales et régionales que cela pourrait occasionner. Dans cet article nous essayons, en nous basant sur des jeux de données hétérogènes, de développer une méthode permettant d'estimer les besoins des populations en connexion très haut débit afin de les confronter à la présence ou non de la fibre optique sur leur territoire. Parmi nos principaux résultats nous montrons qu'il existe de fortes disparités territoriales dans l'accès et dans les besoins, certains territoires ruraux et périurbains représentant 2 millions d'habitants pourraient être particulièrement fragilisés par l'absence de fibre optique. |
| Keywords: | FTTH,fibre optique,très haut débit,fracture numérique,télétravail,science régionale |
| Date: | 2021–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03341938&r= |
| By: | Nickel, Christiane; Fröhling, Annette; Álvarez, Luis J.; Willeke, Caroline; Zevi, Giordano; Osbat, Chiara; Ganoulis, Ioannis; Koester, Gerrit; Lis, Eliza; Peronaci, Romana; Hahn, Elke; Henkel, Lukas; Costain, James; Hoeberichts, Marco; Eiglsperger, Martin; Jonckheere, Jana; Kapatais, Demetris; Gautier, Erwan; Goldhammer, Bernhard; Rumler, Fabio; Kouvavas, Omiros; Krasnopjorovs, Olegs; Strasser, Georg; Lünnemann, Patrick; Trezzi, Riccardo; Martins, Fernando; Vilmi, Lauri; Vlad, Aurelian; O'Brien, Derry; Westermann, Thomas; Popova, Dilyana; Wintr, Ladislav; Porqueddu, Mario; Zekaite, Zivile; Roma, Moreno; Kondelis, Evripides; Knetsch, Thomas; Conflitti, Cristina; Kalantzis, Yannick; Herzberg, Julika; Beka, Jan; van Overbeek, Fons; Schwind, Patrick; Sosič, Nika; Messner, Teresa; Wauters, Joris; Mociunaite, Laura; Weinand, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | This paper – which takes into consideration overall experience with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as well as the improvements made to this measure of inflation since 2003 – finds that the HICP continues to fulfil the prerequisites for the index underlying the ECB’s definition of price stability. Nonetheless, there is scope for enhancing the HICP, especially by including owner-occupied housing (OOH) using the net acquisitions approach. Filling this long-standing gap is of utmost importance to increase the coverage and cross-country comparability of the HICP. In addition to integrating OOH into the HICP, further improvements would be welcome in harmonisation, especially regarding the treatment of product replacement and quality adjustment. Such measures may also help reduce the measurement bias that still exists in the HICP. Overall, a knowledge gap concerning the exact size of the measurement bias of the HICP remains, which calls for further research. More generally, the paper also finds that auxiliary inflation measures can play an important role in the ECB’s economic and monetary analyses. This applies not only to analytical series including OOH, but also to measures of underlying inflation or a cost of living index. JEL Classification: C43, C52, C82, E31, E52 |
| Keywords: | HICP inflation, inflation measurement, measurement bias, Monetary policy review, owner-occupied housing, underlying inflation |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021265&r= |
| By: | Enzo Dia (Universita degli Studi di Milano Bicocca); Jacques Melitz (CREST, CEPII, Heriot-Watt University) |
| Abstract: | We show that the heavy use of legal services relativeto output in the US is not a peculiarity of the country but applies to common law countries in general. It stems largely from better ability to contract and easier access to justice. Yet in close association, common law also opens significantly more room for rent-seeking by lawyers than civil law. There by the costs could outweigh the benefits. Both real GDP per capita and openness emerge as further factors making room for lawyers. |
| Keywords: | Common law, civil law, rent-seeking, openness |
| JEL: | K15 K00 |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2021-14&r= |
| By: | Raphael A. Auer; David Tercero-Lucas |
| Abstract: | Employing representative data from the U.S. Survey of Consumer Payment Choice, we disprove the hypothesis that cryptocurrency investors are motivated by distrust in fiat currencies or regulated finance. Compared with the general population, investors show no differences in their level of security concerns with either cash or commercial banking services. We find that cryptocurrency investors tend to be educated, young and digital natives. In recent years, a gap in ownership of cryptocurrencies across genders has emerged. We examine how investor characteristics vary across cryptocurrencies and show that owners of cryptocurrencies increasingly tend to hold their investment for longer periods. |
| Keywords: | digital currencies, cryptocurrencies, distributed ledger technology, blockchain, payments, digitalisation, banking, household finance, money, bitcoin, ether, xrp, bitcoin cash, litecoin, stellar, eos |
| JEL: | D14 D91 E42 G11 G12 G28 O33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9287&r= |
| By: | Martina Cioni; Giovani Federico; Michelangelo Vasta |
| Abstract: | Since the early years of the 21st century, economists have started to look for the historical roots of current economic outcomes. In this article we deal with this new approach (called persistence studies), as represented by the 75 articles published in ten leading economics journals. We outline the key features (issues, period, geographical area of interest, etc.) of this articles and we discuss their citational record, in comparison with the (much more numerous) economic history articles in the same journals. We also explore the affiliation and training of the 121 authors of persistence studies, highlighting the role of some Boston institutions as the cradle of the new approach. |
| Keywords: | persistence studies, economic history, citational success, top journals |
| JEL: | A11 A12 B4 N01 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:859&r= |
| By: | Conrad Miller; Ian M. Schmutte |
| Abstract: | We study how referral hiring contributes to racial inequality in firm-level labor demand over the firm's life cycle using data from Brazil. We consider a search model where referral networks are segregated, firms are more informed about the match quality of referred candidates, and some referrals are made by non-referred employees. Consistent with the model, we find that firms are more likely to hire candidates and less likely to dismiss employees of the same race as the founder, but these differences diminish as firms' cumulative hires increase. Referral hiring helps to explain racial differences in dismissals, seniority, and employer size. |
| JEL: | J71 M51 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29246&r= |
| By: | Stijn Claessens; Ricardo Correa; Juan M. Londono |
| Abstract: | We investigate how central banks' governance frameworks influence their financial stability communication strategies and assess the effectiveness of these strategies in preventing a worsening of financial cycle conditions. We develop a simple conceptual framework of how central banks communicate about financial stability and how communication shapes the evolution of the financial cycle. We apply our framework using data on the governance characteristics of 24 central banks and the sentiment conveyed in their financial stability reports. We find robust evidence that communications by central banks participating in interagency financial stability committees more effectively mitigate a deterioration in financial conditions and advert a potential financial crisis. After observing a deterioration in conditions, such central banks also transmit a calmer message, suggesting that the ability to use policy tools other than communications strengthens incentives not to just "cry wolf". |
| Keywords: | Financial Stability Governance; Natural Language Processing; Central Bank Communications; Financial Cycle |
| JEL: | G15 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1328&r= |
| By: | Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The pandemic has dealt a heavy blow to the world economy and global commodity markets. The COVID-19 containment measures have taken a toll on economic activity particularly in Q2 2020 when the majority of G20 countries demonstrated an unprecedented drop in real GDP. In relation to G20 as a whole, GDP decreased by a record 6.9% which markedly exceeded a decline by 1.6% recorded in Q1 2019 at the height of the financial crisis.2 China was the only G20 nation exhibiting in Q2 2020 economic growth by 11.5% which was due to the fact that China was the first to exit the crisis. All other G20 economies reported contraction of GDP by 11.8% on average in Q2 2020 when the pandemic fallout was more pronounced. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1123&r= |
| By: | Sakib, Mohammad Nazmus; pande, Saikat; kumar, Rimon; Arif, Dr. Kazi mostafa |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this study was to find out the impact of Chinese FDI on the economic growth of Bangladesh where yearly time series data is used over a period from 1997 to 2020. To obtain those objectives, this study implies the Johansen Co-integration test and vector error correction model as statistical techniques. This study explores that there is a positive and significant long-run relationship among Chinese FDI, Total FDI, Openness of trade, and economic growth of Bangladesh but those variables have no impact on Bangladesh economic growth in the short run. These results also identify there is a long-term granger causality occurring from Chinese FDI, TFDI, and trade openness to the GDP of Bangladesh. Our estimating error correction results is -.72 which conclude that in the long run, the economy is restored around .72 percent of the previous year's disequilibrium within the model and normalized co-integrating coefficient forecast a one percent increase in CFDI and one percent increase in TFDI elicit 0.04% and 0.17% increase in GDP respectively. So that, for enhancing GDP and economic development of Bangladesh our government should influence to bring out the Chinese FDI in our country and make effective policy that can create a strong long-run relationship between two countries. |
| Keywords: | Chinese FDI, Cointegration, error correction model, Bangladesh economic growth |
| JEL: | E22 E27 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109654&r= |
| By: | Tondl, Gabriele |
| Abstract: | Developing countries (DCs) encounter the COVID-19 pandemic under distinctly different preconditions than high income countries. With a young population and permanently challenged by major infectious diseases like malaria and TB, but insufficient health infrastructure and poor public administrative structures, DCs are meeting particular problems to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper wishes to show how dependence on export markets, disruption of supply chains, decline in remittances and containment measures have resulted in a major output drop in DCs. With a large informal sector, unstable employment contracts and little public social support, the population in DCs is hard hit by income losses so that poverty in DCs has grown rapidly. Three issues arise: First, what are the prospects of DCs to stop further waves of the COVID-19 disease? Second, why has the COVID-19 pandemic hit the economy of DCs so hard? Which role play dependency and trade specialisation in this context and will the trade patterns of DCs change in consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic? Third, how has poverty and human tragedy re-emerged in DCs in the course of the COVID-19 crisis and will it ruin the basis of future development? These issues will be discussed using the most recent data and academic literature available. The major conclusion of this paper is that DCs are disproportionately suffering from the economic and human consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. To mitigate this miserable situation, they will need suitable, well-designed assistance from the Global North and international institutions. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,Developing Countries,Supply Chains,Poverty,Inequality |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsew:65&r= |
| By: | Adeabah, David; Andoh, Charles; Asongu, Simplice; Akomea-Frimpong, Isaac |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between elections, political connections, and cash holdings in Ghanaian local assemblies. Using a panel dataset of 179local assemblies over a period 2012 to 2017, a panel regression and the generalized method of moments estimation techniques was employed for the analysis. We find that local assemblies hold less cash during election years, which suggests that election may be one of the potential factors to mitigate agency conflict in weak governance environment. Further, we demonstrate that local assemblies that have political connections hold less cash; however, political uncertainty makes these entities conducive to agency problems than their non-connected peers because they hold more cash. Additional analysis indicates that one year prior to elections, managerial conservatism kicks-in and leads managers to hold more cash in local assemblies that have political connections, which continues and becomes more pronounced in election years. Our results have implications for regulations on the cash management practices of local assemblies. |
| Keywords: | agency problem; cash holdings; generalized method of moments; panel regression; political connections |
| JEL: | C1 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109836&r= |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | This research assesses the relevance of enhancing remittances on value added across economic sectors in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980 to 2014 using the Generalised Method of Moments. First, no significant net effects on added value to the agricultural sector are apparent. Second, enhancing remittances engenders a positive net effect on added value to the manufacturing sector. Third, there are negative net effects on added value to the service sector. Given that the unfavourable net incidence of remittances to the service sector is associated with a positive marginal or conditional effect, the analysis is extended by computing thresholds at which remittances induce net positive effects on added value to the service sector. The extended analysis shows that a remittance threshold of 48.5% of GDP is the critical mass needed for further enhancement of remittances to engender positive net effects on value added to the service sector. |
| Keywords: | Economic Output; Remitances; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | E23 F24 F30 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109835&r= |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Messono, Omang; Guttemberg, Keyanfe |
| Abstract: | The objective of this article is to analyze the effect of the political empowerment of women on vulnerability to climate change in 169 countries for the period 1995-2017. The empirical evidence which is based on panel fixed effects regressions shows that: i) the political empowerment of women as well as its components (i.e. civil liberties of women, participation of women in civil society and participation of women in political debates) reduce vulnerability to climate change. ii) The underlying effect is most pronounced in upper middle income, Latin American, small and fragile countries. iii) Public spending on education, the effectiveness of governance and education are the real transmission channels through which vulnerability to climate change is affected by women’s political empowerment. The findings are robust to alternative estimation methods such as the Tobit, the dynamic fixed effects, and the generalized method of moments regressions. Policy implications are discussed, inter alia, the need for sampled countries to encourage women's political empowerment in order to reduce risks linked to climate change. |
| Keywords: | climate change; vulnerability; political empowerment |
| JEL: | Q50 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109849&r= |
| By: | Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy) |
| Abstract: | A conspicuous lacuna in the literature on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the lack of clarity on variables key for driving and predicting inclusive growth. To address this, I train the machine learning algorithms for the Standard lasso, the Minimum Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (Minimum BIC) lasso, and the Adaptive lasso to study patterns in a dataset comprising 97 covariates of inclusive growth for 43 SSA countries. First, the regularization results show that only 13 variables are key for driving inclusive growth in SSA. Further, the results show that out of the 13, the poverty headcount (US$1.90) matters most. Second, the findings reveal that ‘Minimum BIC lasso’ is best for predicting inclusive growth in SSA. Policy recommendations are provided in line with the region’s green agenda and the coming into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area. |
| Keywords: | Clean Fuel, Economic Growth, Machine Learning, Lasso, Sub-Saharan Africa, Regularization, Poverty. |
| JEL: | C01 C14 C51 C52 C55 F43 O4 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/044&r= |
| By: | Yoichi Arai; Taisuke Otsu; Myung Hwan Seo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the case of possibly high-dimensional covariates in the regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis. In particular, we propose estimation and inference methods for the RDD models with covariate selection which perform stably regardless of the number of covariates. The proposed methods combine the local approach using kernel weights with `1-penalization to handle high-dimensional covariates, and the combination is new in the literature. We provide theoretical and numerical results which illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methods. Theoretically, we present risk and coverage properties for our point estimation and inference methods, respectively. Numerically, our simulation experiments and empirical example show the robust behaviors of the proposed methods to the number of covariates in terms of bias and variance for point estimation and coverage probability and interval length for inference. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.08351&r= |
| By: | Marianne Laurin; Derek Messacar; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | Tax deductions on contributions to registered savings vehicles are a common policy tool used by governments in many industrialized countries to encourage people to save for retirement. However, these plans do not typically lock in funds, which means savers may also withdraw before retirement when their marginal tax rates are still high and forgo the tax benefit. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which pre-retirement savings withdrawals respond to changes in the net-of-tax benefit of withdrawing and whether such behavior depends on the saver’s financial literacy. To that end, we link respondents of a nationally representative financial capability survey from Canada to over 15 years of administrative tax data. Our results show that the correlation between savings withdrawals and the effective marginal tax rate is negative for those with higher financial literacy, but much weaker and sometimes statistically insignificant for those with lower financial literacy. The findings suggest that financial literacy is an important determinant of the extent to which tax-deductible savings plans are used efficiently. |
| Keywords: | tax-preferred savings accounts, retirement savings, financial literacy. |
| JEL: | G53 G51 D14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:creeic:2106&r= |
| By: | Wissink, Joeri (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); van Beest, Ilja (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Pronk, Tila (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); van de Ven, Niels (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:0c4eea76-6401-45ae-866c-a03391c089e4&r= |
| By: | Giulia Canzian; Gianluca Mazzarella; Frank Verboven; Stefano Verzillo; Louis Ronchail |
| Abstract: | The roam-like-at-home regulation (RLAH) eliminated all mobile roaming surcharges to Eu-ropean consumers travelling within the European Economic Area (EEA). We measure the causal impact of the regulation on EEA roaming traffic, using the Rest of the World as a control group. We find large and heterogeneous effects on retail and wholesale traffic volumes and revenues. To evaluate the welfare effects of the regulation, we develop a framework that includes consumer surplus, retail and wholesale profits. The gains in consumer surplus are large, and mainly stem from data services. The consumer gains are proportionately larger in small, open economies and in countries with previously high roaming prices. Finally, total welfare increases considerably, because the consumer surplus gains far outweigh profit losses. As such, the removal of market power more than compensates for a distortion from a possible overconsumption at zero surcharges. |
| Keywords: | price caps, international roaming, mobile telecom, market integration |
| JEL: | L13 L51 L96 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9303&r= |
| By: | Barnett, William; Bella, Giovanni; Ghosh, Taniya; Mattana, Paolo; Venturi, Beatrice |
| Abstract: | We study the stability properties and conditions for the onset of Shilnikov chaos in the UK New Keynesian macroeconomy, as well as the shifts in the equilibrium dynamics under various policy regimes. We find that Shilnikov chaos emerges for a restricted part of the free parameters space in the baseline rational expectations UK model with no regime switching. When the UK's central bank showed a weak response to inflation in the high inflation regime, the chaos did not occur at all. But Shilnikov chaos appears easily in the case of the low-inflation regime, which is associated with the Bank of England's use of aggressive monetary policy in recent years. Tightening the monetary policy interest-rate-feedback rule via the Taylor coefficient is one of the policy alternatives proposed by the local analysis for restoring uniqueness. We find that doing so accelerates the emergence of unanticipated phenomena such as Shilnikov's chaotic dynamics. Our results with UK data are thereby consistent with the results with US data by Barnett et al. (2021), who found that the adoption of an active interest rate feedback rule in recent years by the Federal Reserve produces Shilnikov chaos and unintentional downward drift in interest rates towards the lower bound. The source of the chaos and downward drift in interest rates is adoption of a myopic short-run interest-rate feedback rule without a terminal condition as long run anchor. A critical assumption of the results with US and UK data are existence of new Keynesian sticky prices. While the model’s parameters were calibrated with pre-Brexit data, we expect that our results will be highly relevant post-Brexit, as the needed data become available. Changes in the geometry of the Shilnikov fractal attractor set can be expected to be revealing about changes in the level and nature of UK economic risk following Brexit. |
| Keywords: | Shilnikov chaos criterion, long-term un-predictability, liquidity trap |
| JEL: | C61 C62 E12 E52 E63 |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109820&r= |
| By: | Olivier Bochet; Manshu Khanna; Simon Siegenthaler (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | We design a laboratory experiment to study bargaining when parties need to agree on multiple issues. We find that bundling—the ability to make price offers on combinations of issues rather than separately—is critical for reaching agreement. We also find that giving bargainers access to more information about each other’s valuations and costs does not raise efficiency, because the boost in agreement rates in small-surplus negotiations is offset by increased risk-taking and conflicting fairness preferences in large-surplus negotiations. Finally, we show that successful negotiations are characterized by an alternating offer structure, which emerges endogenously. It involves offers that split the difference between the two most recent demands, and it displays a higher probability of agreement vis-a`-vis other formats of bargaining observed in our data. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20210070&r= |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister |
| Abstract: | Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants' expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market's rational assessment of future price and policy developments. This paper reviews empirical approaches for recovering market-based expectations. It starts by laying out the two canonical modeling frameworks that form the backbone for estimating risk premia and highlights the proliferation of risk pricing factors that result in a wide range of different asset-price-based expectation measures. It then describes a key methodological innovation to evaluate the empirical plausibility of risk premium estimates and to identify the most accurate market-based expectation measure. The usefulness of this general approach is illustrated for price expectations in the global oil market. Then, the paper provides an overview of the body of empirical evidence for monetary policy and inflation expectations with a special emphasis on market-specific characteristics that complicate the quest for the best possible market-based expectation measure. Finally, it discusses a number of economic applications where market expectations play a key role for evaluating economic models, guiding policy analysis, and deriving shock measures. |
| JEL: | C52 E31 E43 E52 G14 Q43 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29232&r= |
| By: | Lin William Cong (Cornell University); Wenshi Wei (Tsinghua University); Danxia Xie (Tsinghua University); Longtian Zhang (Central University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | We model a dynamic data economy with fully endogenous growth where agents generate data from consumption and share them with innovation and production firms. Different from other productive factors such as labor or capital, data are nonrival in their uses across sectors which affect both the level and growth of economic outputs. Despite the vertical nonrivalry, the innovation sector dominates the production sector in data usage and contribution to growth because (i) data are dynamically nonrival and add to knowledge accumulation, and (ii) innovations "desensitize" raw data and enter production as knowledge, which allays consumers' privacy concerns. Data uses in both sectors interact to generate spillover of allocative distortion and exhibit an apparent substitutability due to labor's rivalry and complementarity with data. Consequently, growth rates under a social planner and a decentralized equilibrium differ, which is novel in the literature and has policy implications. Specifically, consumers' failure to fully internalize knowledge spillover when bearing privacy costs, combined with firms' market power, underprice data and inefficiently limit their supply, leading to underemployment in the innovation sector and a suboptimal long-run growth. Improving data usage efficiency is ineffective in mitigating the underutilization of data, but interventions in the data market and direct subsidies hold promises. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10027&r= |
| By: | TANSEL, AYSIT; ÖZTÜRK, CEYHAN; ERDIL, ERKAN |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between wealth and health through prominent growth indicators and cognitive ability. Cognitive ability is represented by nutritional status. The proxy variable for nutritional status is BMI. We use the reduced form equation in the cubic specification of time preference rate, strongly related to cognitive ability, to estimate this relationship. The growth indicators utilized are GDP per capita, schooling, overall and manufacturing productivities, and savings. We estimate our models using the FE, GMM estimators, and long difference OLS and IV estimation through balanced panel data for the 1980-2009 period. We conclude that the relationship between all prominent growth indicators and BMI is inverse U-shaped. In other words, cognitive ability has a significant potential to progress growth and economic development only in a healthy status. |
| Keywords: | Cognitive ability, time preference rate, BMI, productivity, health, schooling, growth, economic development |
| JEL: | E21 I15 I25 J24 Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109738&r= |
| By: | Fabian T. Pfeffer; Nora Waitkus |
| Abstract: | Comparative research on income inequality has produced several coherent frameworks to study the institutional determinants of income stratification. In contrast, no such framework and much less empirical evidence exist to explain cross-national differences in wealth inequality. This situation is particularly lamentable as cross-national patterns of inequality in wealth diverge sharply from those in income. We seek to pave the way for new explanations of cross-national differences in wealth inequality by tracing them to the influence of different wealth components. Drawing on the literatures on financialization and housing, we argue that housing equity should be the central building block of the comparative analysis of wealth inequality. Using harmonized data on fifteen countries included in the Luxembourg Wealth Study (LWS), we first demonstrate a lack of association between national levels of income and wealth inequality and concentration. Using decomposition approaches, we then estimate the degree to which national levels of wealth inequality and concentration relate to cross-national differences in wealth portfolios and the distribution of specific asset components. Considering the role of housing equity, financial assets, non-housing real assets, and non-housing debt, we reveal that cross-national variation in wealth inequality and concentration is centrally determined by the distribution of housing equity. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:lwswps:33&r= |
| By: | Eskelinen, Maria |
| Abstract: | In this paper I develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which features three different types of representative agents (THRANK): the poor hand-to-mouth, the wealthy hand-to-mouth and the non-hand-to mouth households. Compared to a full-scale HANK model, this model is easier to compute while reproducing many of the same monetary policy shock transmission channels. I show that monetary policy transmission takes place through a redistribution channel, as emphasised by Auclert (2019). In particular, the effects of a monetary policy shock are amplified as resources are redistributed from high-MPC households to low-MPC households. Monetary policy therefore becomes more effective compared to models with homogeneous MPC rates. Consumption inequality is countercyclical in this setting and a high degree of leverage amplifies the redistribution channel. These findings have important implications for understanding the effects of both monetary and macroprudential policy. JEL Classification: D31, E12, E21, E43, E52 |
| Keywords: | household heterogeneity, housing market, inequality, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212590&r= |
| By: | Estefanía Galván (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | Studies for high-income countries have shown that the prescription that a man should earn more than his wife holds back women’s performance in the labour market, evidencing the importance of gender identity norms in explaining persistent gender gaps. Using data on couples in Uruguay for the period 1986-2016, this paper analyses behavioural responses to the male breadwinner norm, investigating the role of job informality as an additional mechanism of response to gender norms. My results show that the higher the probability that the wife earns more than her husband, the less likely she is to engage in a formal job, providing evidence that gender norms affect not only the quantity of labour supply (i.e. labour force participation and hours of work), but also the quality of jobs in which women are employed. Moreover, I also identify meaningful effects of the norm on men: those with lower potential earnings than their wives react to the norm by self-selecting into better-paid formal jobs. Not considering these effects would lead to underestimate the consequences of gender norms on labour market inequalities in the context of developing countries. |
| Keywords: | gender identity, social norms, informality, labour supply, housework. |
| JEL: | D13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-14-21&r= |
| By: | Ayat-Allah Bouramdane (LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Alexis Tantet (LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Philippe Drobinski (LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine how Battery Storage (BES) and Thermal Storage (TES) combined with solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies with an increased storage duration and rental cost together with diversification would influence the Moroccan mix and to what extent the variability (i.e., adequacy risk) can be reduced; this is done using recent (2013) cost data and under various penetration scenarios. To do this, we use MERRA-2 climate reanalysis to simulate hourly demand and capacity factors (CFs) of wind, solar PV and CSP without and with increasing storage capabilities—as defined by the CSP Solar Multiple (SM) and PV Inverter Loading Ratio (ILR). We adjust these time series to observations for the four Moroccan electrical zones over the year 2018. Our objective is to maximize the renewable (RE) penetration and minimize the imbalances between RE production and consumption considering three optimization strategies. We analyze mixes along Pareto fronts using the Mean-Variance Portfolio approach—implemented in the E4CLIM model—in which we add a maximum-cost constraint to take into account the different rental costs of wind, PV and CSP. We propose a method to calculate the rental cost of storage and production technologies taking into account the constraints on storage associated with the increase of SM and ILR in the added PV-BES and CSP-TES modules, keeping the mean solar CFs fixed. We perform some load bands-reduction diagnostics to assess the reliability benefits provided by each RE technology. We find that, at low penetrations, the maximum-cost budget is not reached because a small capacity is needed. The higher the ILR for PV, the larger the share of PV in the mix compared to wind and CSP without storage is removed completely. Between PV-BES and CSP-TES, the latter is preferred as it has larger storage capacity and thus stronger impact in reducing the adequacy risk. As additional BES are installed, more than TES, PV-BES is favored. At high penetrations, optimal mixes are impacted by cost, the more so as CSP (resp., PV) with high SM (resp., ILR) are installed. Wind is preferably installed due to its high mean CF compared to cost, followed by either PV-BES or CSP/CSP-TES. Scenarios without or with medium storage capacity favor CSP/CSP-TES, while high storage duration scenarios are dominated by low-cost PV-BES. However, scenarios ignoring the storage cost and constraints provide more weight to PV-BES whatever the penetration level. We also show that significant reduction of RE variability can only be achieved through geographical diversification. Technological complementarity may only help to reduce the variance when PV and CSP are both installed without or with a small amount of storage. However, the diversification effect is slightly smaller when the SM and ILR are increased and the covariances are reduced as well since mixes become less diversified. |
| Keywords: | thermal energy storage,photovoltaic,battery energy storage,rental cost,diversification,Morocco,concentrated solar power |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03344439&r= |
| By: | Raphael Auer (Swiss National Bank; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)); Alexandra Matyunina (University of Zurich; Swiss Finance Institute); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)) |
| Abstract: | Do targeted macroprudential measures impact non-targeted sectors too? We answer this question by investigating the compositional changes in the supply of credit by Swiss banks, exploiting their differential exposure to the activation in 2013 of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) which targeted banks’ exposure to residential mortgages. We find that the additional capital requirements stemming from the activation of the CCyB causes higher growth in banks’ commercial lending. While banks lend more to all categories of firms, including larger corporate borrowers in the syndicated loan market, smaller and riskier firms are the primary beneficiaries of the new macroprudential measure. However, the interest rates and other costs of obtaining credit for these firms increase as well. |
| Keywords: | macroprudential policy, spillovers, credit, bank capital, systemic risk, syndicated loan market |
| JEL: | E51 E58 E60 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2166&r= |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister (University of Notre Dame; University of Pretoria; NBER; CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants' expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market's rational assessment of future price and policy developments. This paper reviews empirical approaches for recovering market-based expectations. It starts by laying out the two canonical modeling frameworks that form the backbone for estimating risk premia and highlights the proliferation of risk pricing factors that result in a wide range of different asset-price-based expectation measures. It then describes a key methodological innovation to evaluate the empirical plausibility of risk premium estimates and to identify the most accurate market-based expectation measure. The usefulness of this general approach is illustrated for price expectations in the global oil market. Then, the paper provides an overview of the body of empirical evidence for monetary policy and inflation expectations with a special emphasis on market-specific characteristics that complicate the quest for the best possible market-based expectation measure. Finally, it discusses a number of economic applications where market expectations play a key role for evaluating economic models, guiding policy analysis, and deriving shock measures. |
| Keywords: | futures markets, risk premia, monetary policy, commodities, market expectations, financial markets, asset pricing, return regressions, affine term structure models, risk adjustment, model uncertainty, forecasting, expectational shocks |
| JEL: | C52 E31 E43 E52 G14 Q43 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202164&r= |
| By: | Oswald, David; Hao, Peng; Williams, Nigel; Barth, Matthew |
| Abstract: | As part of the City of Riverside’s Smart-City initiative, UC Riverside researchers have developed an Innovation Corridor testbed for enabling shared electric connected and automated transportation research. This Innovation Corridor testbed is located in Riverside California, and consists of a six-mile section of University Avenue between the UC Riverside campus and downtown Riverside. The testbed supports various transportation modes including passenger vehicles, trucks, transit (e.g., RTA buses), bicycles, and various forms of micro-mobility. This corridor is continuously being instrumented with various infrastructure equipment to support research in shared electric connected and automated transportation. Specifically for this project, the corridor has been equipped with roadside communications equipment and advanced traffic signal controllers at several key intersections, to help improve safety, mobility and environmental sustainability. With this initial instrumentation, we have then conducted connected vehicle experimentation that utilize the signal phase and timing (SPaT) data from these intersections to smooth traffic flow and reduce emissions. For this Innovation Corridor, a high-fidelity simulation environment was also developed to evaluate potential connected vehicle strategies. A variety of Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) connected vehicle experiments have been conducted and evaluated, both in simulation and in the real-world. As part of the simulation ecosystem, we have compared the energy and emissions modeling results to see which best matches the real-world measurements. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Connected and automated vehicles, traffic modeling, eco-approach and departure |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt99q6w075&r= |
| By: | Katerina Kroupova (Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Tomas Havranek (Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & CEPR); Zuzana Irsova (Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Educational outcomes have many determinants, but one that most young people can readily control is choosing whether to work while in school. Sixty-nine studies have estimated the effect, but results vary from large negative to positive estimates. We show that the results are systematically driven by context, publication bias, and treatment of endogeneity. Studies ignoring endogeneity suffer from an upward bias, which is almost fully compensated by publication selection in favor of negative estimates. Net of the biases, the literature suggests a negative but economically inconsequential mean effect. The effect is more negative for high-intensity employment and educational outcomes measured as decisions to dropout, but it is positive in Germany. To derive these results we collect 861 previously reported estimates together with 32 variables reflecting estimation context, use recently developed nonlinear techniques to correct for publication bias, and employ Bayesian and frequentist model averaging to a sign a pattern to the heterogeneity in the literature. |
| Keywords: | student employment, educational outcomes, meta-analysis, publication bias, Bayesian model averaging |
| JEL: | C83 I21 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2021_28&r= |
| By: | Balandina Galina (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The 2020 was the final year for implementing fundamental policy documents that determined the development vector of the customs authorities of the Russian Federation in the expiring decade, i.e. the RF FCS Comprehensive Development Program until 2020 and the Development Strategy of the Customs Service of the Russian Federation until 2020. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, customs regulation |
| JEL: | F10 F13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1135&r= |
| By: | Gilmar V. F. Santos; Lucas G. Cordeiro; Claudio A. Rojo e Edison L. Leismann |
| Abstract: | Global warming has divided the scientific community worldwide with predominance for anthropogenic alarmism. This article aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic model of paleotemperature time series and compare it with the dominant thesis. The ARIMA model, an integrated autoregressive process of moving averages, popularly known as Box-Jenkins, was used for this purpose. The results showed that the estimates of the model parameters were below 1 degree Celsius for a scenario of 100 years which suggests a period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling, contrary to the prediction of the IPCC and the anthropogenic current of an increase in 1,50 degree to 2,0 degree Celsius by the end of this century. Thus, we hope with this study to contribute to the discussion by adding a statistical element of paleoclimate in counterpoint to the current consensus and to placing the debate in a long term historical dimension, in line with other research already present in the scientific literature. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10419&r= |
| By: | Nicolò Barbieri (Department of Economics and Management, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy); Alberto Marzucchi (Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, L’Aquila, Italy); Ugo Rizzo (Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy) |
| Abstract: | The present study explores the technological complementarities between green and non-green inventions. First, we look at whether inventive activities in climate-friendly domains depend on patenting in related technological domains that are not green. Based on patent data filed over the 1978–2014 period, we estimate a spatial autoregressive model using co-occurrence matrices to capture technological interdependencies. Our first finding highlights that the development of green technologies strongly relies on advances in other green and in particular non-green technological domains, whose relevance for the green economy is usually neglected. Building on this insight, we detect the non-green complementary technologies that co-occur with green ones and assess whether environmental policies affect this particular instantiation of technologies at the country level. The results of the instrumental variable approach confirm that while environmental policies spur green patenting, they do not displace the development of the non-green technological pillars upon which green inventions develop. |
| Keywords: | Green technology, patent data, environmental policy, network-dependent innovation |
| JEL: | H23 O31 Q58 Q55 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:1021&r= |
| By: | Felix Kapfhammer; Vegard H. Larsen; Leif Anders Thorsrud |
| Abstract: | The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We document this by proposing a novel news media-based measure of climate change transition risk and show that when such risk is high, major commodity currencies experience a persistent depreciation and the relationship between commodity price fluctuations and currencies tends to become weaker. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates, climate, risk, commodities |
| JEL: | C11 C53 D83 D84 E13 E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2020–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bno:worpap:2020_18&r= |
| By: | Knut Are Aastveit; Tuva Marie Fastbø; Eleonora Granziera; Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen; Kjersti Næss Torstensen |
| Abstract: | We use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are free of sampling errors and are available weekly without delays, providing a valuable early indicator of household spending. To account for mixed-frequency data, we estimate various mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions using predictors sampled at monthly and weekly frequency. We evaluate both point and density forecasting performance over the sample 2011Q4-2020Q1. Our results show that MIDAS regressions with debit card transactions data improve both point and density forecast accuracy over competitive standard benchmark models that use alternative high-frequency predictors. Finally, we illustrate the beneï¬ ts of using the card payments data by obtaining a timely and relatively accurate now cast of the ï¬ rst quarter of 2020, a quarter characterized by heightened uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Keywords: | debit card transaction data, nowcasting, forecast evaluation, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 E27 |
| Date: | 2020–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bno:worpap:2020_17&r= |
| By: | Livvy Mitchell (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Paddy Baylis (Pomona College); Susan Randolph (Human Rights Measurement Initiative) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates how well the New Zealand Government is complying with its obligations under the International Covenant for Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) regarding the right to adequate housing and the right to health care and protection. This study is novel in that it is the first study to extensively use quantitative performance indicators in addition to several qualitative indicators. While we find some areas of compliance for both the right to adequate housing and the right to health care and protection, the study reveals serious and significant violations of the ICESCR. The structural indicators reveal pervasive breaches in the New Zealand Government’s commitment to respect each right, while the process and outcome indicators reveal breaches in the New Zealand Government’s commitment to protect and fulfil each right. In particular, we find: (1) the two rights are not explicitly and fully recognised in domestic laws or in strategic plans, policies and measures; (2) well over half of the indicators examined reveal breaches in the obligations to use the maximum of available resources to ensure the two rights; (3) fewer than half the indicators evaluated show compliance with the obligation to progressively realise the two rights; (4) all but two of the indicators used to evaluate the New Zealand Government’s compliance with its minimum core obligations reveal breaches; (5) a sizable number of the indicators evaluated show breaches of non-retrogression—that is, reductions in the percentage of the population enjoying the rights; and finally, (6) there is evidence of serious and persistent structural, direct, and indirect discrimination among many population subgroups and especially between M?ori and non-M?ori. |
| Keywords: | Right to housing; right to health; Human Rights Law; International Covenant for Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights; Social Rights; freedoms; Human Development; Entitlements; Well Being; Capabilities; Social Policy; New Zealand; Public Expenditure; Health; Welfare; Economic Development |
| JEL: | K38 H53 I15 I18 I31 I38 O15 O56 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:21_12&r= |
| By: | Lucy Huo; Ariah Klages-Mundt; Andreea Minca; Frederik Christian M\"unter; Mads Rude Wind |
| Abstract: | We model incentive security in non-custodial stablecoins and derive conditions for participation in a stablecoin system across risk absorbers (vaults/CDPs) and holders of governance tokens. We apply option pricing theory to derive closed form solutions to the stakeholders' problems, and to value their positions within the capital structure of the stablecoin. We derive the optimal interest rate that is incentive compatible, as well as conditions for the existence of equilibria without governance attacks, and discuss implications for designing secure protocols. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.08939&r= |
| By: | Hugo Gimbert; Claire Mathieu; Simon Mauras |
| Abstract: | School choice is the two-sided matching market where students (on one side) are to be matched with schools (on the other side) based on their mutual preferences. The classical algorithm to solve this problem is the celebrated deferred acceptance procedure, proposed by Gale and Shapley. After both sides have revealed their mutual preferences, the algorithm computes an optimal stable matching. Most often in practice, notably when the process is implemented by a national clearinghouse and thousands of schools enter the market, there is a quota on the number of applications that a student can submit: students have to perform a partial revelation of their preferences, based on partial information on the market. We model this situation by drawing each student type from a publicly known distribution and study Nash equilibria of the corresponding Bayesian game. We focus on symmetric equilibria, in which all students play the same strategy. We show existence of these equilibria in the general case, and provide two algorithms to compute such equilibria under additional assumptions, including the case where schools have identical preferences over students. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09089&r= |
| By: | Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric & Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Riza Demirer (Department of Economics and Finance, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, Edwardsville, IL 62026-1102, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This paper adds a novel perspective to the literature by exploring the predictive performance of two relatively unexplored indicators of financial conditions, i.e. financial turbulence and systemic risk, over stock market volatility in a sample of seven emerging and advanced economies. The two financial indicators that we utilize in our predictive setting provide a unique perspective to market conditions as they directly relate to portfolio performance metrics from both a volatility and co-movement perspective and, unlike other macro-financial indicators of uncertainty or risk, can be integrated into diversification models within a forecasting and portfolio design setting. Since the two predictors are available at weekly frequency, and we want to provide forecast at the daily level, we use the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) approach. The results suggest that incorporating the two financial indicators (singly and jointly) indeed improves the out-of-sample predictive performance of stock market volatility models across both the short and long horizons. We observe that the financial turbulence indicator that captures asset price deviations from historical patterns does a better job when it comes to the out-of-sample prediction of future returns compared to the measure of systemic risk, captured by the absorption ratio. The outperformance of the financial turbulence indicator implies that unusual deviations in not only asset returns, but also correlation patterns clearly play a role in the persistence of return volatility. Overall, the findings provide an interesting opening for portfolio design purposes in that financial indicators that are directly associated with portfolio diversification performance metrics can also be utilized for forecasting purposes with significant implications for dynamic portfolio allocation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Systemic risk, Financial turbulence, Stock market, MIDAS models |
| JEL: | C32 D8 E32 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202162&r= |
| By: | Lou Plateau |
| Abstract: | La thèse porte sur les organisations de coopération agricole au stade de la production (OCAP) en Belgique. Elle s’inscrit dans le champ de l’économie institutionnelle, de l’économie sociale et de l’économie politique agraire. À partir d’une enquête empirique, la recherche s’efforce d’étayer la thèse de la complexité du fonctionnement interne des OCAP en Belgique étant donné la multiplicité des objectifs poursuivis par leurs membres et la nature des relations sociales dans lesquelles sont insérées ces structures coopératives de production agricole. En tant qu’objet d’étude, les OCAP sont définies comme les formes volontaires de coopération qui portent sur les processus biologiques de la culture des plantes et de l'élevage des animaux. Ces arrangements institutionnels sont caractérisés par la construction d'un ensemble de règles collectives qui organisent la mise en commun de ressources et d’activités et par la négociation entre associés des critères de répartition des résultats monétaires et non monétaires issus du travail. Les OCAP se distinguent des coopératives agricoles largement développées depuis le 19e siècle en Europe de l’Ouest pour offrir des services en amont ou en aval de la production. Ces coopératives de services ont été constituées pour faciliter l’intégration verticale sur les marchés d’exploitations indépendantes tandis que les OCAP, en intervenant au stade de la production, organisent la coopération horizontale entre agriculteurs associés.Les OCAP sont relativement peu développées en Europe et ailleurs dans le monde. Pourtant, les arguments pour coopérer au stade de la production agricole sont multiples et articulent des motivations d’ordre économique, social, politique, écologique et idéologique. Elles relèvent notamment de la volonté d’accéder aux ressources productives, de bénéficier d’économies d’échelle, d’améliorer les conditions de travail ou de renforcer les interdépendances des exploitations avec leur environnement biophysique et socioéconomique. Plusieurs raisons peuvent toutefois expliquer le fait que les OCAP sont peu répandues, comme l’attachement des agriculteurs à leur terre ou l’apparition de déséconomies d’échelle à partir d’un seuil de dimension relativement bas, liées aux coûts de déplacement des travailleurs et du matériel et aux coûts de coordination du travail. Malgré ces difficultés, depuis les années 2000 en Belgique, de nouvelles initiatives coopératives au stade de la production agricole sont portées par des néo-agriculteurs et coexistent avec les autres types d’exploitations agricoles. Notre recherche interroge en particulier la diversité des pratiques organisationnelles déployées au sein des OCAP à travers l’analyse des conditions sociales de production, des mécanismes qui permettent d’articuler la multiplicité des objectifs poursuivis et des processus de démocratisation de l’économie rurale. Pour cela, nous avons mené trois enquêtes empiriques complémentaires à partir d’une combinaison de méthodes de recherche qualitative. La première permet de caractériser la diversité organisationnelle des OCAP par la construction d’une typologie empirique menée sur la base d’un échantillon de 31 organisations. Trois variables dichotomiques définissent les types d’OCAP :la mise en commun du travail de la terre, le contrôle de la production et l’étendue de la coopération. L’analyse des conditions sociales de production dans chacun des types procède ensuite à l’examen des formes d’accès au foncier et au capital d’exploitation, des modes de prise de décision, des conditions de travail et des modalités de répartition des résultats produits. Cette première étude met finalement en évidence les tensions qui caractérisent la nature des relations que les agriculteurs nouent entre eux et avec d’autres catégories d’acteurs. La deuxième enquête empirique investigue les mécanismes par lesquels les membres des structures intégrales de coopération agricole, dont la particularité est d’organiser en commun le travail de la terre selon des principes agroécologiques, parviennent à construire une cohérence interne à leur organisation étant donné la multiplicité des objectifs qu’ils poursuivent. À travers une analyse comparative de dix organisations, les structures coopératives de production agroécologique sont alors étudiées à travers le prisme des organisations hybrides car, au-delà de la logique commerciale, elles combinent des demandes contradictoires issues de leur engagement dans des logiques d’autogestion, d’agroécologie et d’ancrage territorial. Après avoir défini les propriétés de ces logiques institutionnelles, l’analyse met en évidence les tensions paradoxales qui découlent de leur combinaison et les réponses organisationnelles mises en œuvre pour poursuivre dans la durée les multiples rationalités engagées. La troisième analyse consiste en une monographie d’une OCAP dont la singularité est de répartir le contrôle de la production agroécologique entre agriculteurs et citoyens. L’analyse vise à préciser la notion de démocratie économique à partir des principes qu’elle sous-tend et des principales praxis démocratiques mises en œuvre par les acteurs pour réguler leurs activités économiques. En particulier, nous avons cherché à comprendre les contradictions des pratiques organisationnelles avec les principes de démocratie économique et avec certains fondements du mouvement coopératif, ainsi que les tensions internes qui en résultent. Ce travail nous permet finalement d’appréhender dans une perspective critique et nuancée la transformation du rôle des citoyens dans les activités économiques et la diversification contemporaine des formes coopératives dans le secteur agricole et alimentaire induites par l’émergence d’initiatives aux multiples parties prenantes. |
| Abstract: | This thesis focuses on agricultural production cooperatives (APCs) in Belgium. It is framed within the fields of institutional economics, social economics, and agrarian political economy. Based on qualitative empirical research, this work seeks to untangle the thesis of the complexity of the internal functioning of APCs in Belgium, given the multiplicity of objectives pursued by their members, and the nature of the social relations in which these agricultural production cooperatives are embedded. APCs are defined here as voluntary forms of cooperation that deal with the biological processes of cropping plants and rearing animals. These voluntary arrangements are premised upon the construction of a set of collective rules that organize the pooling of resources and activities, as well as the negotiation between associates of the criteria for redistribution of monetary and non-monetary working outcomes. APCs are different from the agricultural cooperatives that, since the 19th century, have developed widely in Western Europe to offer upstream or downstream production services. The latter were established to facilitate the vertical integration of independent farms into markets. Instead, APCs, by intervening at the production stage, organize horizontal cooperation between associated farmers.APCs are relatively undeveloped in Europe and elsewhere in the world. However, incentives for cooperating at the agricultural production stage are multiple, and articulate economic, social, political, ecological, and ideological motivations. Such motivations relate to the desire to access productive resources, to benefit from economies of scale, to improve working conditions, or to strengthen the interdependence of farms with their biophysical and socioeconomic environment. Notwithstanding this, various elements may explain the limited presence of APCs such as farmers' attachment to the land or the appearance of diseconomies of scale from low dimension thresholds, linked to the costs of moving workers and equipment and the costs of coordinating work. Despite these difficulties, in Belgium, from the 2000s, new initiatives of agricultural production cooperation have been created by neo-farmers, and coexist with other social types of farms.Our research specifically examines the diversity of organizational practices implemented within APCs through the analysis of the social conditions of production, the mechanisms that allow the combination of the multiple objectives pursued and the processes of democratization of the rural economy. To do this, we conducted three complementary empirical analyses using a combination of qualitative research methods. The first analysis allows us to characterize the organizational diversity of APCs by constructing an empirical typology based on a sample of 31 organizations. Three dichotomous variables define the types of APCs: the pooling of labour on the land, the control of production, and the extent of cooperation. From the analysis of the social conditions of production in each type of APCs, it then proceeds to examine the forms of access to land and capital, the modes of decision-making, the working conditions, and the modalities of outcomes distribution.The second empirical study investigates the mechanisms by which members of the integral structures of agricultural cooperation, whose peculiarity is to organize farming labour collectively according to agroecological principles, manage to build an internal coherence within their organization given the multiple objectives they pursue. Through a comparative analysis of ten organizations, agroecological production cooperatives are studied through the prism of hybrid organizations, as they combine contradictory demands stemming from their commitment to logics of self-management, agroecology, and territorial embeddedness. After defining the properties of these institutional logics, the analysis reveals the paradoxical tensions that arise from the combination and the organisational responses adopted to pursue this multiplicity of rationalities on the long run. The third empirical analysis consists of a single case study on one type of APC, whose singularity is to allocate the control of production between farmers and citizens. Through an in-depth study of a citizen agroecological production cooperative, the analysis aims to clarify the notion of economic democracy by looking at its underpinning principles, and at the main democratic praxis that actors implement to regulate their economic activities. In particular, we unveil the internal contradictions that emerge from the organizational practices with the principles of economic democracy and certain foundations of the cooperative movement. This work finally allows us to grasp, through the adoption of a critical and nuanced perspective, the transformation of the citizen's role in economic activities, and the contemporary diversification of cooperative forms propelled by the emergence of multi-stakeholder initiatives in the agricultural sector. |
| Keywords: | Agroécologie; Coopérative agricole; Autogestion; Développement durable; Agroecology; Agricultural cooperative; Self-management; Sustainability |
| Date: | 2021–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/330869&r= |
| By: | Pablo Delgado (Department of Applied Economics and Economic History and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, IA2 (UNIZAR-CITA), University of Zaragoza, Spain); Vicente Pinilla (Department of Applied Economics and Economic History and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, IA2 (UNIZAR-CITA), University of Zaragoza, Spain); Gema Aparicio (Independent Researcher) |
| Abstract: | It is well known that the expansion of international trade was one of the key elements of the first globalization. Many studies have pointed out that both supply and demand factors in order to explain this process. However, the weight that these factors could have had in the expansion of trade in different products could have been very varied. In general, a perspective that places more emphasis on the characteristics and peculiarities of each product is missing to understand how the international market for them was formed in the first globalization and the reasons for the growth of their trade. In this context, our work deal with the evolution of meat global trade from its formation during the XIX century until the World War Two. Global market trade has two highly interesting features. On the one hand, the technical difficulties involved in transport and on the other hand the almost monosopnist nature of Great Britain. |
| Keywords: | international trade, agribusiness trade, first globalization, great depression |
| JEL: | F14 N50 Q17 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2104&r= |
| By: | Alexander Jaax; Frédéric Gonzales; Annabelle Mourougane |
| Abstract: | The increasing importance of services trade in the global economy contrasts with the lack of timely data to monitor recent developments. The nowcasting models developed in this paper are aimed at providing insights into current changes in total services trade, as recorded in monthly statistics of the G7 countries. Combining machine-learning techniques and dynamic factor models, the methodology exploits traditional data and Google Trends search data. No single model outperforms the others, but a weighted average of the best models combining machine-learning with dynamic factor models seems to be a promising avenue. The best models improve one-step ahead predictive performance relative to a simple benchmark by 30-35% on average across G7 countries and trade flows. Nowcasting models are estimated to have captured about 67% of the fall in services exports due to the COVID-19 shock and 60% of the fall in imports on average across G7 economies. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic factor models, G7 economies, Machine learning |
| JEL: | C4 C22 F17 |
| Date: | 2021–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:253-en&r= |
| By: | Chien, FengSheng; Ngo, Quang-Thanh; Hsu, Ching-Chi; Chau, Ka Yin; Mohsin, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | Ghana suffers from inadequate power supply due to increasing demand though it is amongst the African nations with the highest access to electricity. This research aims to assess the techno-economic potential of wind and solar energy potential for Ghana’s northern part. We employ the Weibull distribution function, levelized cost of energy, and net present cost metrics for the economic study. The wind and solar energy resource’s structure generated 72,284 kWh yearly. Both systems were identified to be too expensive if implemented under the current financing conditions in the country. The PV systems generated 38,859 kWh/ year, representing 53.76% of the total electricity generated in a year, generating renewable hydrogen in the country. The findings show that sizing and management of renewable plants will fulfill the basic annual cooking demands of the populations, which are 785 kg H2 in Ghana. The countries’ capacity for developing solar hydrogen plants is further suggested by generating new solar hydrogen opportunity charts. Considering the significance of hydrogen energy under the renewable energy output, we recommend using hybrid systems for hydrogen production. The findings reveal which flexibility options are critical in key stages of the energy transition to a 70, 80, 90, and 100% renewable energy system. |
| Keywords: | Solar energy; Techno-economic analysis; Ghana, HOMER; LCOE; Hybrid power plant |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109667&r= |
| By: | Thorsten Drautzburg; Jonathan H. Wright |
| Abstract: | Identification in VARs has traditionally mainly relied on second moments. Some researchers have considered using higher moments as well, but there are concerns about the strength of the identification obtained in this way. In this paper, we propose refining existing identification schemes by augmenting sign restrictions with a requirement that rules out shocks whose higher moments significantly depart from independence. This approach does not assume that higher moments help with identification; it is robust to weak identification. In simulations we show that it controls coverage well, in contrast to approaches that assume that the higher moments deliver point-identification. However, it requires large sample sizes and/or considerable non-normality to reduce the width of confidence intervals by much. We consider some empirical applications. We find that it can reject many possible rotations. The resulting confidence sets for impulse responses may be non-convex, corresponding to disjoint parts of the space of rotation matrices. We show that in this case, augmenting sign and magnitude restrictions with an independence requirement can yield bigger gains |
| Keywords: | vector-autoregression; sign restrictions; set-identification; weak identification; non-convex confidence set; independent shock |
| JEL: | C51 C32 |
| Date: | 2021–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:93062&r= |
| By: | Ila Patnaik (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Rajeswari Sengupta (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | We analyse India's exchange rate regime through the prism of exchange market pressure. We estimate the various regimes that India's exchange rate has been through during the period from 2000 to 2020. We find four specific regimes of the Indian rupee differentiated by the degree of flexibility. We document the manner in which EMP in India has either been resisted through foreign exchange market intervention, or relieved through exchange rate change, across these four exchange rate regimes. We find that in only one of the four regimes the rupee-dollar exchange rate was relatively more flexible and the share of exchange rate in EMP absorption was the highest. This regime corresponded with the aftermath of the 2008 global crisis. In contrast, after 2013 the exchange rate was actively managed using spot as well as forward market intervention. We also find that the RBI has been intervening in the foreign exchange market in an asymmetric fashion to prevent the rupee from appreciating. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate regime, Forex intervention, Reserves, Exchange market pressure, Structural change |
| JEL: | E58 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-022&r= |
| By: | Brav, Alon; Dasgupta, Amil; Mathews, Richmond D. |
| Abstract: | Blockholder monitoring is central to corporate governance, but blockholders large enough to exercise significant unilateral influence are rare. Mechanisms that enable moderately-sized blockholders to exert collective influence are there-fore important. Existing theory suggests that engagement by moderately-sized blockholders is unlikely, especially when the blocks are held by delegated asset managers who have limited skin in the game. We present a model in which mul-tiple delegated blockholders engage target management in parallel, i.e., “wolf pack activism.” Delegation reduces skin in the game, which decreases incentives for engagement. However, it also induces competition over investor capital (i.e, competition for flow). We show that this increases engagement incentives and helps ameliorate the problem of insufficient engagement, though it can also fos-ter excess engagement. Under competition for flow the total amount of capital seeking skilled activist managers is relevant to engagement incentives, which helps to predict when and where wolf packs arise. Flow incentives are particularly valuable in incentivizing engagement by packs with smaller members |
| Keywords: | corporate governance; blockholder monitoring; institutional investors; reputation concerns; strategic complementarity; ES/S016686/1 |
| JEL: | G34 G23 |
| Date: | 2021–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112118&r= |
| By: | Meng Miao; Jacopo Ponticelli; Yi Shao |
| Abstract: | Why are certain communities more prone to anti-government protests than others? Do past rebellions lead to more protests today? We study the historical roots of social unrest using the experience of China. We document that counties with higher incidence of peasant uprisings against local government officials during the Qing dynasty period (1644-1912) also have higher incidence of anti-government protests in present-day China. To generate plausibly exogenous variation in the incidence of past protests, we exploit differences in the visibility and magnitude of solar eclipses during the Qing dynasty period. In the Confucian tradition, solar eclipses are considered a negative divine signal on the legitimacy of the ruler, facilitating the coordination of protest actions. We test this mechanism using detailed data on the timing and location of anti-government rebellions extracted from local chronicles. Counties within the totality zone of a solar eclipse were significantly more likely to experience a rebellion in the eclipse year. Leaders of early anti-Qing rebellions were recorded in popular culture and celebrated in temples, favoring the transmission of the memory of their actions across generations. The persistent effect of past protests is stronger in counties with such temples and memorials, consistent with a long-term memory of revolutions. |
| JEL: | D74 N3 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29182&r= |
| By: | Macve, Richard |
| Abstract: | Based on gaining privileged access to interview senior representatives of audit firms, regulatory bodies, financial institutions, universities and other organisations in mainland China, Hong Kong and the UK, this exploratory study presents a range of informed views about the rapid development of China’s auditing profession over the last 25 years. It explores the emerging roles of the firms in the 2nd-tier international networks and among the larger stand-alone firms as challengers to the Big 4, nationally and internationally. It identifies national and international institutional interactions that have shaped and are being shaped by this rapid growth, with particular reference to the overarching role of the State’s shifting strategies to create a domestic profession in China that can compete internationally. The potential consequences, given China’s unequalled size and its expanding global influence, could change the nature and structure of the global profession. A significant contribution of this exploratory empirical study has been to deconstruct the continuing conventional political and academic rhetoric that dichotomises firms into ‘foreign vs local’ and ‘Big 4 vs other’. It contributes new voices and alternative perspectives to the emerging literature on the glocalization of large professional services firms and suggests new opportunities for future auditing research. |
| Keywords: | Chinese auditing profession; International Auditing Standards (ISA); Big 4; 2nd-tier audit networks; international professional service firms (IPSFs); auditing research |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2020–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103576&r= |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Dirk Krueger |
| Abstract: | The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is one of the most important reforms of the US health insurance system since the introduction of Medicare. Since employment is a main source of health insurance for the working age population in the United States, this sweeping health insurance reform also has important implications for the labor market and the macro economy. In this paper, we survey the prototype models that are used in the macro and labor literature, extended to integrate health and health insurance, to study the short- and long-run consequences of the ACA. We also suggest open areas for future research. |
| JEL: | E62 H51 I1 I13 I18 J33 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29240&r= |
| By: | Solveig Flaig; Gero Junike |
| Abstract: | In this research, we show how to expand existing approaches of generative adversarial networks (GANs) being used as economic scenario generators (ESG) to a whole internal model - with enough risk factors to model the full band-width of investments for an insurance company and for a one year horizon as required in Solvency 2. For validation of this approach as well as for optimisation of the GAN architecture, we develop new performance measures and provide a consistent, data-driven framework. Finally, we demonstrate that the results of a GAN-based ESG are similar to regulatory approved internal models in Europe. Therefore, GAN-based models can be seen as an assumption-free data-driven alternative way of market risk modelling. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10072&r= |
| By: | Donato Masciandaro; Romano Vincenzo Tarsia |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an index for evaluating central bank activism in addressing climate-change issues. Consistent with a principal-agent approach, this metric assumes that the central bank’s sensibility on climate change depends on both economic and political drivers. The index has been created to include not only actual policies but also participation in green networks and initiatives that signal central bank activism on climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, central banking, principal-agent, political pressure, monetary policy, financial stability |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp20167&r= |
| By: | Myriam Le Goff-Pronost (IMT Atlantique - LUSSI - Département Logique des Usages, Sciences sociales et Sciences de l'Information - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], MARSOUIN - Môle Armoricain de Recherche sur la SOciété de l'information et des usages d'INternet - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UBO - Université de Brest - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de Analyse de l'Information - Rennes, LaTIM - Laboratoire de Traitement de l'Information Medicale - UBO - Université de Brest - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CHRU Brest - Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Brest - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSAM - Institut Brestois Santé Agro Matière - UBO - Université de Brest); Nicolas Jullien (IMT Atlantique - LUSSI - Département Logique des Usages, Sciences sociales et Sciences de l'Information - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], MARSOUIN - Môle Armoricain de Recherche sur la SOciété de l'information et des usages d'INternet - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UBO - Université de Brest - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de Analyse de l'Information - Rennes, LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]); Godefroy Dang Nguyen (IMT Atlantique - LUSSI - Département Logique des Usages, Sciences sociales et Sciences de l'Information - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], MARSOUIN - Môle Armoricain de Recherche sur la SOciété de l'information et des usages d'INternet - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UBO - Université de Brest - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de Analyse de l'Information - Rennes, LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]) |
| Abstract: | Background: the economic model of Wikipedia is based on donations. What would happen if these donations were to decrease and no longer covered all the costs borne by the Wikimedia Foundation? Objectives: we propose to measure, through a contingent valuation model, the willingness to pay Wikipedia users for free access without advertising (traditional economic model of online projects). What is the amount they are willing to pay and what is the profile and motivation of the donors? Method: the study is based on a survey of 16432 french-language people and a Heckman-type econometric model. Results: the results estimate that the average amount that people are willing to pay per year for Wikipedia without advertising is € 5.64 (€ 7.73, considering only those who agree to pay). The profile of those willing to pay is identical to that of other public goods, and the value of the amount paid is highly dependent on the level of income. The amount envisaged is higher than the donation campaigns proposed by Wikipedia (€ 2) but lower than the average donation received by the Wikimedia Foundation (€ 10), but these are often nonrecurring donations. |
| Keywords: | contingent valuation,online projects,willingness-to-pay,Wikipedia |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03338895&r= |
| By: | Sule Alan; Gozde Corekcioglu; Matthias Sutter |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of a program aiming at improving the workplace climate in corporations. The program is implemented via a clustered randomized design and evaluated with respect to the prevalence of support networks, antisocial behavior, perceived relational atmosphere, and turnover rate. We find that professionals in treated corporations are less inclined to engage in toxic competition, exhibit higher reciprocity toward each other, report higher workplace satisfaction and a more collegial atmosphere. Treated firms have fewer socially isolated individuals and a lower employee turnover. The program's success in improving leader-subordinate relationships emerges as a likely mechanism to explain these results. |
| Keywords: | workplace climate, relational dynamics, leadership quality, RCT |
| JEL: | C93 M14 M53 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9304&r= |
| By: | Tamás Peragovics (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies) |
| Abstract: | One of the protagonists of globalization in the past decade has been China. Its economic and financial footprint has deepened across the globe, and its companies are active in all industries, with few countries left untouched by such interest. A key instrument in this expansion are mergers and acquisitions (M&A) projects pursued by Chinese companies, many of which are focused on technologically advanced, and thus politically sensitive, businesses in Western countries. This expansion is fueled in large part by China’s Go Global strategy, initiated in 1999, and, more recently, the Made in China 2025 campaign. The US has drawn considerable interest from Chinese companies since the 2010s, many of which are aimed to buy into key American businesses. This working paper discusses Chinese M&A activities in the US during this period, focusing on the political obstacles and regulatory difficulties they encounter. In so doing, the study demonstrates that the American M&A market showed more receptivity towards Chinese projects in the first half of the 2010s, while it became more politically charged after 2016, in large part due to the steady deterioration of ties between Beijing and Washington. The case of TikTok and other high-profile Chinese businesses are used to illustrate these developments. |
| Keywords: | China, USA, mergers, acquisitions, TikTok |
| JEL: | G34 G11 P33 P45 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwe:workpr:264&r= |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Nting, Rexon |
| Abstract: | This study investigates direct and indirect linkages between financial development and inclusive human development in data panels for African countries. It employs a battery of estimation techniques, notably: Two-Stage Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Generalized Method of Moments and Tobit regressions. The dependent variable is the inequality adjusted human development index. All dimensions of the Financial Development and Structure Database (FDSD) of the World Bank are considered. The main finding is that financial dynamics of depth, activity and size improve inclusive human development, whereas the inability of banks to transform mobilized deposits into credit for financial access negatively affects inclusive human development. Policies should be tailored to improve mechanisms by which credit facilities can be provided to both households and business operators. Surplus liquidity issues resulting from the inability of banks to transform mobilized deposits into credit can be resolved by enhancing the introduction of information sharing offices (like public credit registries and private credit bureaus) that would reduce information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers. This study complements the extant literature by assessing the nexus between financial development and inclusive human development in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Banking; human development; Africa |
| JEL: | E0 G20 I00 O10 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109846&r= |
| By: | Andrea Canidio; Heiko Karle |
| Abstract: | Two players with preferences distorted by the focusing effect (Koszegi and Szeidl, 2013) negotiate an agreement over several issues and one transfer. We show that, as long as their preferences are differentially distorted, an issue will be inefficiently left out of the agreement or inefficiently included in the agreement whenever the importance of the other issues on the table is sufficiently large. Anticipating this possibility, the negotiating parties may negotiate in stages, by first signing an incomplete agreement and later finalizing the outcome of the negotiation. Negotiating in stages increases the efficiency of the negotiation, despite the fact that the players’ preferences are distorted by the focusing effect also when negotiating the incomplete agreement. |
| Keywords: | salience, focusing effect, bargaining, negotiations, incomplete agreements |
| JEL: | C78 D03 D86 F51 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9297&r= |
| By: | Mohammad Nur Nobi; Dr. A N M Moinul Islam |
| Abstract: | During the last three decades, shrimp has remained one of the major export items in Bangladesh. It contributes to the development of this country by enhancing export earnings and promoting employment. However, coastal wetlands and agricultural lands are used for shrimp culture, which reduces agricultural opportunity and peasants income, and destroys the mangroves and coastal eco-system. These are the external environmental costs that are not reflected in farmers price and output decisions. This study has aimed to estimate those external environmental costs through the contingent valuation method. The calculated environmental cost of shrimp farming is USD 13.66 per acre per year. Findings suggest that current shrimp production and shrimp price will no longer be optimal once the external costs are internalized. Thus alternative policy recommendations have been proposed so that shrimp farming becomes a sustainable and equitable means of aquaculture. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05416&r= |
| By: | Dirk Schoenmaker |
| Abstract: | Companies are under pressure to change their business models and become more sustainable. Corporate governance codes across Europe have introduced the term ‘long-term value creation’ to capture companies’ social responsibility. However, the concept of long-term value creation lacks tools that would enable its application. Companies still steer their investments based on outdated valuation methods, which are entirely based on financial value. The concept of integrated value would give substance to... |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:44891&r= |
| By: | Marumo Omotoye (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | The construction industry (CI) is considered one of the most corrupt both internationally and regionally. Therefore, this study examined the views and attitudes of professionals in Botswana’s CI towards the role whistleblowing (or protected disclosure) can play in curbing corruption in the sector. A convergent mixed methods approach was adopted. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders from the construction industry. Furthermore, a self-administered survey was utilised to collect quantitative data from 117 construction firms. Data revealed that there was little awareness of whistleblowing legislation. Fear of retaliation or punishment and job loss, and a lack of education on whistleblowing were identified as some of the most substantial barriers to effective whistleblowing in the industry. From a public policy perspective, it is recommended that an emphasis be placed on improving levels of education and awareness on whistleblowing in the construction sector. In addition, there should be consideration to amend the Whistleblowing Act 2016 to include construction industry regulators, the Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Board, and private media amongst the list of institutions authorised to receive reports of impropriety in order to extend the scope of legal protection to whistleblowers in the sector. Recommendations for further research are provided. |
| Keywords: | Whistleblowing; Construction industry; Public sector; Private sector; Botswana |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bid:wpaper:79&r= |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser |
| Abstract: | Will COVID-19 end the urban renaissance that many cities have experienced since the 1980s? This essay selectively reviews the copious literature that now exists on the long-term impact of natural disasters. At this point, the long-run resilience of cities to many forms of physical destruction, including bombing, earthquakes and fires, has been well-documented. The destruction of human capital may leave a longer imprint, but cities have persisted through many plagues over the past millennia. By contrast, economic and political shocks, including deindustrialization or the loss of capital city status, can enormously harm an urban area. These facts suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic will only significantly alter urban fortunes, if it is accompanied by a major economic shift, such as widespread adoption of remote work, or political shifts that could lead businesses and the wealthy to leave urban areas. The combination of an increased ability to relocate with increased local redistribution or deterioration of local amenity levels or both could recreate some of the key attributes of the urban crisis of the 1970s. |
| JEL: | R11 R23 R28 R5 R53 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29261&r= |
| By: | Alina Machado (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Andrea Vigorito (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | We assess the evolution of multidimensional poverty and vulnerability among the Uruguayan adult population between 2006 and 2018. Based on the results of a previous consultation process framed in a technical cooperation agreement between Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración (Universidad de la República) and the Ministry of Social Development, we consider deprivation in the following domains: education; health care; labour force status and social protection; housing; social cohesion and discrimination; and life satisfaction/leisure-work balance. We study the evolution of individual indicators and multidimensional indices, and analyze the evolution of horizontal inequalities in deprivation by sex, ethnic-racial descent, region and age group. We conduct two different analyses using data from official household surveys (Encuestas Continuas de Hogares), and a public opinion survey (Latinobarometro) to account for deprivation in the domains of social cohesion and subjective well-being . Although our findings indicate that multidimensional poverty fell (31%) between 2006 and 2018, it decreased a a considerably lower pace than monetary poverty (78%). Furthermore, our results reveal a trade-off between improvements in the subset of dimensions reflecting deprivation in terms of individual well-being and worsened outcomes in the dimensions that refer to more collective functionings, such as social cohesion. Regarding multidimensional vulnerability, in 2018, only 54% of the population aged 18 and over is not at risk of experiencing poverty in a worsened economic scenario. Meanwhile, horizontal inequalities remained unchanged or even widened in the period covered in this study. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional poverty, horizontal inequalities, vulnerability, Uruguay, encuestas de hogares, Latinobarometer, Encuestas Continuas de Hogares |
| JEL: | I3 D63 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-11-21&r= |
| By: | Pedro Bordalo; John J. Conlon; Nicola Gennaioli; Spencer Yongwook Kwon; Andrei Shleifer |
| Abstract: | People often estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that an insurable risk will materialize or that an Irish person has red hair, by retrieving experiences from memory. We present a model of this process based on two established regularities of selective recall: similarity and interference. The model accounts for and reconciles a variety of conflicting empirical findings, such as overestimation of unlikely events when these are cued vs. neglect of non-cued ones, the availability heuristic, the representativeness heuristic, as well as over vs. underreaction to information in different situations. The model makes new predictions on how the content of a hypothesis (not just its objective probability) affects probability assessments by shaping the ease of recall. We experimentally evaluate these predictions and find strong experimental support. |
| JEL: | C91 D01 D84 D90 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29273&r= |
| By: | Tomoko HASHINO (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Keijiro Otsuka (The Center for Social Systems Innovation and Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | It is well-known that Japan successfully imported advanced technology from Europe during the Meiji era (1868-1912), notably in the modern cotton spinning industry which used imported British ring machines and Indian cotton and outcompeted India in Asian cotton yarn market. It is also true that traditional industries, especially the sedentary silk reeling and the cotton and silk weaving districts located in various parts of the country, successfully developed while using imported technologies. This study attempts to explore key factors contributing to the successful industrial development in prewar Japan based on the review of the development of the modern cotton textile and silk reeling industries, and the traditional cotton and silk weaving and sedentary silk reeling industries. We found that these industries commonly selected appropriate technologies and adapted them to the initially abundant endowment of labor followed by its growing scarcity. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2124&r= |
| By: | Naonari Yajima (: Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan., Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan); Toshi H. Arimura (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan., : Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | An energy audit is a famous policy instrument to improve the energy efficiency in facilities. Although energy audits have been adopted by many countries, it is unclear whether energy audits can improve the energy efficiency, since there are several barriers to energy efficiency under energy audits. For example, the facility does not need to evaluate the net benefit of energy efficiency is greater than its cost. Another possible barrier to energy efficiency is that an energy manager may have less information to improve their energy efficiency. Moreover, even if managers can find methods to improve their energy efficiency, organizational structures may be a barrier to adopting these methods. Therefore, additional practices such as information provision, target setting, or reward by governments can make an energy audit more effective. This paper investigates the complementarity of an energy audit and these practices by focusing on the Emission Reduction Program (ERP), which is a unique energy audit in Japan. Using municipality-level data, we show that target setting, inspection, and designating the department/division responsible for tackling climate change can complementarily promote the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by facilities under the ERP |
| Keywords: | Energy audit, Greenhouse gas emissions reduction, Emissions Reduction Program, Municipality-level data |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2113&r= |
| By: | Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The crisis phenomena in the global and Russian economy directly related to the introduction of quarantine measures in 2020, led to the deficit of the consolidated regional budget. At end-2020, the consolidated regional budget and the budgets of territorial state extra-budgetary funds ran a deficit of Rb667.4 bn, or 0.63% of GDP. To compare, in 2019 the consolidated regional budget and the budgets of territorial state extra-budgetary funds ran a surplus of Rb17.4 bn, or 0.02% of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, regional and municipal finances, loan market, debt market |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H74 H76 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1120&r= |
| By: | Catherine Locatelli (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Depuis l'effondrement de l'Union soviétique, la question de la réforme de l'industrie gazière russe et de sa principale compagnie Gazprom est l'objet d'importants débats. Elle s'avère être un enjeu important pour les équilibres des marchés régionaux du gaz naturel en particulier pour l'Europe et de plus en plus pour l'Asie. Aujourd'hui se dessine une voie de réforme en accord avec les caractéristiques institutionnelles et politiques de l'économie russe. Ces principales caractéristiques sont le fruit d'une recombinaison entre des anciennes et des nouvelles formes institutionnelles. Ainsi, les processus de sédimentation/hybridation institutionnelles à l'œuvre dans le secteur gazier russe conduisent à une restructuration majeure du secteur et dessinent une voie de réforme originale. |
| Keywords: | Russie,Industrie du gaz naturel |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03341887&r= |
| By: | Ole Boysen (European Commission – JRC); Emanuele Ferrari (European Commission – JRC); Victor Nechifor (European Commission – JRC); Pascal Tillie (European Commission – JRC) |
| Abstract: | Poverty continues to be a widespread issue among cocoa farmers while chocolate consumers become increasingly sensitive for the sustainability issues associated with the supply chain. The poverty issue is often attributed to the low prices of cocoa and the unequal distribution of profit margins across the chocolate value chain, at least partially. Poverty, in turn, is considered to be the root of further sustainability issues. To raise the value share and price accruing to their farmers by leveraging their collective market power, the two biggest cocoa producing countries Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana jointly announced in 2019 the cocoa Living Income Differential (LID) policy. The question is to what extent and under which circumstances could the policy reach this goal in the long run, considering the numerous unknowns around the details of the policy and market actors’ reactions, and how sustainable it is. To analyse this question, we implement a global multi-regional partial equilibrium model of the world cocoa market to simulate scenarios accounting for alternative assumptions about these unknowns. The study shows that the LID’s effects on prices and welfare of cocoa farmers in the two countries range from none to substantially positive, varying in magnitude with the scenarios. But it also highlights that the farmgate price target, which is reached in Ghana under most scenarios, is reached in Côte d’Ivoire only with additional supply management measures. The two countries’ government budgets and cocoa farmers in other countries lose out substantially in many cases, what is identified, among other issues, as potential threats to the sustainability of the policy that require attention. Evaluated in light of past attempts by governments and other actors to raise farmer welfare in the cocoa but also other agricultural sectors, one policy alternative stands out, although coming with its own challenges. |
| Keywords: | Cocoa, Living Income Differential, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, sustainability, partial equilibrium model, policy impact assessment |
| JEL: | Q01 Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc125754&r= |
| By: | Joel A. Middleton |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a design-based framework for variance (bound) estimation in experimental analysis. Results are applicable to virtually any combination of experimental design, linear estimator (e.g., difference-in-means, OLS, WLS) and variance bound, allowing for unified treatment and a basis for systematic study and comparison of designs using matrix spectral analysis. A proposed variance estimator reproduces Eicker-Huber-White (aka. "robust", "heteroskedastic consistent", "sandwich", "White", "Huber-White", "HC", etc.) standard errors and "cluster-robust" standard errors as special cases. While past work has shown algebraic equivalences between design-based and the so-called "robust" standard errors under some designs, this paper motivates them for a wide array of design-estimator-bound triplets. In so doing, it provides a clearer and more general motivation for variance estimators. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09220&r= |
| By: | Shagaida Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Uzun Vasily (RANEPA); Ternovskiy Dmitry (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | Early in 2020, Russia adopted the new Food Security Doctrine, which included the entire range of amendments as compared with the previous Doctrine-2010. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, agricultural production |
| JEL: | Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1124&r= |
| By: | Nadia von Jacobi; Vito Amendolagine |
| Abstract: | We propose a methodology inspired by ecology to map the complex interdepen- dencies between cultural and institutional factors - controlling for other socioeco- nomic and structural characteristics. We characterize interdependencies as asym- metric symbiotic relations, distinguishing between ‘hosts’ that nurture other factors and ‘symbionts’ that reversely feed on the former. We use correlation network anal- ysis to compute a map of multiple such interdependencies for Brazil, which has a vast territory, internally diversified historical paths and a multilevel governance structure. We set the empirical analysis at the municipality level and find that in- stitutional factors tend to be symbionts, whereas cultural factors tend to be hosts. However, our results also show that institutions assume multiple roles within a com- plex network of interdependencies, often becoming themselves habitat for others or transmittors of indirect effects. |
| Keywords: | Institutions, Culture, Symbiosis, Correlation network analysis, Brazil |
| JEL: | O17 O43 C18 D02 H70 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwprg:2021/13&r= |
| By: | Antoine Djogbenou; Razvan Sufana |
| Abstract: | Standard high-dimensional factor models assume that the comovements in a large set of variables could be modeled using a small number of latent factors that affect all variables. In many relevant applications in economics and finance, heterogenous comovements specific to some known groups of variables naturally arise, and reflect distinct cyclical movements within those groups. This paper develops two new statistical tests that can be used to investigate whether there is evidence supporting group-specific heterogeneity in the data. The first test statistic is designed for the alternative hypothesis of group-specific heterogeneity appearing in at least one pair of groups; the second is for the alternative of group-specific heterogeneity appearing in all pairs of groups. We show that the second moment of factor loadings changes across groups when heterogeneity is present, and use this feature to establish the theoretical validity of the tests. We also propose and prove the validity of a permutation approach for approximating the asymptotic distributions of the two test statistics. The simulations and the empirical financial application indicate that the proposed tests are useful for detecting group-specific heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09049&r= |
| By: | Marco Ranaldi; Branko Milanovic |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the relationship between capitalism systems and their levels of income and compositional inequality (how the composition of income between capital and labor varies along income distribution). Capitalism may be seen to range between Classical Capitalism, where the rich have only capital income, and the rest have only labor income, and Liberal Capitalism, where many people receive both capital and labor incomes. Using a new methodology and data from 47 countries over the past 25 years, we show that higher compositional inequality is associated with higher inter-personal inequality. Nordic countries are exceptional because they combine high compositional inequality with low inter-personal inequality. We speculate on the emergence of homoploutic societies where income composition may be the same for all, but Gini inequality nonetheless high, and introduce a new taxonomy of capitalist societies. |
| JEL: | D31 P51 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:803&r= |
| By: | Shammugam, Shivenes; Schleich, Joachim; Schlomann, Barbara; Montrone, Lorenzo |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate the effects of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Germany in 2020 at the sectoral and national level. Counterfactual emissions are estimated based on autoregressive econometric models and distinguish between different factors of emissions based on decomposition analysis. Our findings at the national level suggest that COVID-19 lowered GHG emissions in 2020 in Germany by about 45 Mt CO2-eq (6.1%). Accordingly, about two-thirds of the reduction in emissions between 2019 and 2020 in Germany may be attributed to COVID-19. Our findings at the sectoral level imply that all sectors, with the exception of the transport sector, would have met their emissions target in 2020 without COVID-19. Thus, for the buildings sector and the transport sector, our results suggest policy responses that differ from those pursued by the German government to comply with the provisions of the Federal Climate Change Act. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,climate targets,climate policy,greenhouse gas emissions |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s062021&r= |
| By: | Michelangeli, Valentina; Peydró, José-Luis; Sette, Enrico |
| Abstract: | We identify the relative importance for lending of borrower (demand) versus bank (supply) factors. We submit thousands of fictitious mortgage applications, changing one borrower-level factor at time, to the major Italian online mortgage platform. Each application goes to all banks. We find that borrower and bank factors are equally strong in causing and explaining loan acceptance. For pricing, borrower factors are instead stronger. Moreover, banks supplying less credit accept riskier borrowers. Exploiting the administrative credit register, we show borrower-lender assortative matching, and that the bank-level strength measure, estimated on the experimental data, determines credit supply and risk-taking to real firms. |
| Keywords: | credit,banks,mortgages,SMEs,risk-taking |
| JEL: | G21 G51 E51 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:242124&r= |
| By: | Costa-Font, J.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A. |
| Abstract: | Government decentralisation (GD) can provide an alternative to the ‘build in’ accountability mechanism of markets by influencing the choice of and preference for public versus private health care. To test this hypothesis, this paper exploits the gradual decentralisation of the political stewardship of the Spanish National Health System (NHS) to study the effect of GD on the individual choice of public (NHS) and private health care drawing on a difference-in-differences design. We find that ‘turning on’ the decentralization treatment (abandoning centralised governance) increases the preference for public health care (NHS) compared to control regions that did not exhibit any major change in the health care governance in the least a decade. Specifically, we find that GD increases the perceptions of, satisfaction with, and preference for the NHS. Consistently, we also find that the GD reduces the uptake of private health insurance among higher income and education groups. The effects are mainly driven by improvements in health care quality as well as policy innovation and diffusion. |
| Keywords: | devolution; National Health Service (NHS); private health care; private health insurance; health system satisfaction; health care quality; |
| JEL: | H7 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:21/16&r= |
| By: | Rosero Sánchez, Andrés Mauricio |
| Abstract: | RESUMEN: El objeto de este estudio es contrastar la teoría austriaca del ciclo económico con la crisis económica colombiana de 1998-2003. Para ello, se recurre a la obra de Huerta de Soto (“Dinero, Crédito Bancario y Ciclos Económicos†, 2012), quien desglosa el ciclo económico en una secuencia de seis efectos macroeconómicos fácilmente contrastables con la evidencia empírica y que suelen ponerse en marcha tras una política monetaria expansiva. A lo largo del estudio, se cotejan cada uno de dichos efectos con la información estadística disponible y, mediante la revisión de las opiniones de expertos y análisis de estadística descriptiva, se muestra cómo cuatro de los seis efectos macroeconómicos que según Huerta de Soto (2012) componen el típico ciclo económico se hicieron patentes en la economía colombiana a fines del siglo XX. Adicionalmente, se encuentra verosimilitud entre la causa teórica del ciclo económico desde la perspectiva austriaca y las severas expansiones monetarias y crediticias efectuadas en Colombia entre 1992 y 1993. A grandes rasgos, la teoría austriaca del ciclo económico permite explicar la crisis colombiana de 1998-2003. Abstract: The purpose of this study is to make a contrast between the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) and the Colombian economic crisis of 1998-2003. For that, we resort to the work of Huerta de Soto (“Money, bank credit and economic cycle†, 2012), who breaks down the cycle in a sequence of six macroeconomic effects that are easily verifiable and set off after an expansionary monetary policy. Throughout the study, each effect is compared with the available statistical information and with the opinion of experts. We are able to demonstrate how four of the six macroeconomic effects described by Huerta de Soto (2012) are eventually present in the Colombian economy of the last decade of the twentieth century. In addition, we find that the Austrian theoretical cause of the cycle is consistent with the severe monetary and credit expansions observed in Colombia between 1992 and 1993. To sum up, the Colombian crisis of 1998-2003 can be roughly explained using the ABCT. |
| Keywords: | teoría austriaca del ciclo económico, crisis económica colombiana de 1999, burbuja inmobiliaria, efectos de la política monetaria, crisis financieras |
| JEL: | B53 E44 E58 G28 N26 |
| Date: | 2021–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:019619&r= |
| By: | Demeze-Jouatsa, Ghislain-Herman (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University); Pongou, Roland (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University); Tondji, Jean-Baptiste (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University) |
| Abstract: | Frequent violations of fair principles in real-life settings raise the fundamental question of whether such principles can guarantee the existence of a self-enforcing equilibrium in a free economy. We show that elementary principles of distributive justice guarantee that a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium exists in a finite economy where agents freely (and non- cooperatively) choose their inputs and derive utility from their pay. Chief among these principles is that: 1) your pay should not depend on your name; and 2) a more productive agent should not earn less. When these principles are violated, an equilibrium may not exist. Moreover, we uncover an intuitive condition|technological monotonicity|that guarantees equilibrium uniqueness and efficiency. We generalize our findings to economies with social justice and inclusion, implemented in the form of progressive taxation and redistribution, and guaranteeing a basic income to unproductive agents. Our analysis uncovers a new class of strategic form games by incorporating normative principles into non-cooperative game theory. Our results rely on no particular assumptions, and our setup is entirely non- parametric. Illustrations of the theory include applications to exchange economies, surplus distribution in a firm, contagion and self-enforcing lockdown in a networked economy, and bias in the academic peer-review system. |
| Keywords: | Market justice, Social justice, Inclusion, Ethics, Discrimination, Self-enforcing contracts, Fairness in non-cooperative games, Pure strategy Nash equilibrium, Efficiency |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bie:wpaper:653&r= |
| By: | Milogolov Nikolai (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Berberov A. (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The current system of international taxation does not result in a fair distribution of the tax base between countries in a digital environment violating the principle of taxation in accordance with the added value created in the particular country. In the absence of international consensus, countries reform their tax systems aimed to collect taxes in the digital economy unilaterally by imposing Digital Services Tax (DST). By their nature, being indirect, these taxes (DST) are collected on the turnover of foreign digital companies in the market country (the country of the source of income). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, taxation, international business taxation |
| JEL: | H2 H24 H25 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1138&r= |
| By: | Abhin Kakkad; Arnab K. Ray |
| Abstract: | We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modelling of the economic data, which are made available by the World Bank, we predict the maximum values of the growth of GDP and trade, as well as the duration over which exponential growth can be sustained. We set up the correlated growth of GDP and trade as the phase solutions of an autonomous second-order dynamical system. GDP and trade are related to each other by a power law, whose exponent differentiates the six national economies into two types. Under conducive conditions for economic growth, our conclusions have general validity. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05262&r= |
| By: | Matthias Haslberger |
| Abstract: | This article deals with a central paradox in the occupational polarisation literature: most scholars accept that technological change is biased against routine-intensive occupations, but in many countries, we do not see the pattern of occupational polarisation that the theory usually predicts. I argue and show empirically using a dataset of 10 OECD countries between 1995 and 2013 that technological change is both routine-biased and skill-biased, but that the result of routine-biased technological change may be occupational upgrading rather than polarisation. This is due to differences in occupational routine-wage hierarchies: only where routine occupations cluster around the middle of the wage distribution are we likely to see polarisation. Where routine occupations are concentrated near the bottom of the wage hierarchy, upgrading occupational change is the norm. Based on research on the US, the former has been widely assumed, but it does not hold true in all countries. Overall, this article shows that much previous work on routine-biased technological change and polarisation was built on premises that do not travel well. This underscores the importance of comparative research for building and testing robust general theories. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:814&r= |
| By: | Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Charlotte Le Chapelain (Université de Lyon); Audrey Rose Menard (UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03345552&r= |
| By: | Giese, Julia (Bank of England); Joyce, Michael (Bank of England); Meaning, Jack (Bank of England); Worlidge, Jack (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Most tests of preferred habitat theory are indirect; they infer the existence of preferred habitat behaviour in financial markets by examining the behaviour of asset prices. We instead identify preferred habitat behaviour directly from whether investors show a preference towards a particular duration habitat. We do so by making use of a newly available and highly granular data set on the UK government bond (gilt) market, which allows us to examine investors’ gilt transactions and their daily stock of gilt holdings during 2016 and 2017. Using cluster analysis, we find that investors can be classified into distinct groups, some of which more closely display the behavioural properties that theory associates with preferred habitat investors. We find that these groups of investors are less sensitive to price movements than other investor groups and include institutional investors, like life insurers and pension funds, which are typically associated with preferred habitat behaviour. Evidence from the Bank of England’s QE4 purchase programme during August 2016 to March 2017 suggests that these investor groups sold relatively more of their gilt holdings to the Bank than other groups of investors. |
| Keywords: | Preferred habitat; gilt market; yield curve; cluster analysis |
| JEL: | E43 E52 G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0939&r= |
| By: | Hérault, Nicolas; Hyslop, Dean; Jenkins, Stephen P.; Wilkins, Roger |
| Abstract: | We use a new Australian longitudinal income tax dataset, Alife, covering 1991–2017, to examine levels and trends in the persistence in top-income group membership, focussing on the top 1%. We summarize persistence in multiple ways, documenting levels and trends in rates of remaining in top-income groups; re-entry to the top; the income changes associated with top-income transitions; and we also compare top-income persistence rates for annual and ‘permanent’ incomes. Regardless of the perspective taken, top-income persistence increased markedly over the period, with most of the increase occurring in the mid-2000s and early 2010s. In the mid- to late2010s, Australian top-income persistence rates appear to have been near the top of the range of tax-data estimates for other countries. Using univariate breakdowns and multivariate regression, we show that the rise in top-income persistence in Australia was experienced by many population subgroups. |
| Keywords: | top incomes; income mobility; top-income persistence |
| JEL: | D31 I31 C81 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112125&r= |
| By: | Albert Banal-Estañol; Qianshuo Liu; Inés Macho-Stadler; Pérez-Castrillo |
| Abstract: | We analyse if and how the characteristics of grant research panels affect the applicants' likelihood of obtaining funding and, especially, if particular types of panels favor particular types of applicants. We use the award decisions of the UK's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). We show that not only applicants' but also panels' characteristics matter. Panels of higher quality, in terms of prior research performance, for instance, as well panels that include more female members or members of Mongoloid origin, are tougher than others. Our main results indicate that panel members tend to favor more (or penalise less) applicants with similar characteristics to them, as the similarto- me hypothesis suggests. We show, for instance, that the quality of the applicants is more critical for panels of the highest quality than for panels of relatively lower quality, that basic oriented panels tend to penalise applied-oriented applicants, and that panels with less female members tend to penalise teams with more female applicants. |
| Keywords: | Funding organization, scientific evaluation, similar-to-me, panel composition, research grants |
| JEL: | I23 O32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1801&r= |
| By: | Chakraborty, Tanika; Mukherjee, Anirban; Saha, Sarani; Shukla, Divya |
| Abstract: | We study the role of formal institutions of contract enforcement in facilitating investments in small and medium firms(MSME). In a framework where established entrepreneurs can enforce contracts informally using their network ties and hierarchical advantage, we argue that an efficient formal judiciary helps entrepreneurs without any ties to informal business networks, disproportionately more. We test our theoretical prediction using a novel administrative panel-data from Indian courts and the nationally representative MSME survey data. Empirically, we treat entrepreneurs from disadvantaged castes (SC-ST) as those without traditional business-network ties. We find that improvement in court quality has a disproportionately larger impact on the investment decisions of SC-ST entrepreneurs. On average, if the time taken for a court to clear all existing cases reduces by 1 year, the initial gap in the probability of investing, between SC-ST and other entrepreneurs, gets reduced by 0.6-0.7 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | Judiciary,Duration Index,MSME,Entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | K12 L26 O17 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:935&r= |
| By: | Silvio Traverso; Massimiliano Vatiero; Enrico Zaninotto |
| Abstract: | This work discusses and empirically investigates the relationship between labor regulation and robotization. In particular, the empirical analysis focuses on the relationship between the discipline of workers’ dismissal and the adoption of indus- trial robots in nineteen Western countries over the 2006–2016 period. We find that high levels of statutory employment protection have been negatively associated with robot adoption, suggesting that labor-friendly national legislations, by increasing adjustment costs (such as firing costs), and thus making investment riskier, provide less favorable environments for firms to invest in industrial robots. We also find, however, that the correlation is positively mediated by the sectoral levels of capital intensity, a hint that firms do resort to industrial robots as potential substitutes for workers to reduce employees’ bargaining power and to limit their hold-up opportu- nities, which tend to be larger in sectors characterized by high levels of operating leverage. |
| Keywords: | Robot adoption, Labor regulation, Hold-up |
| JEL: | K31 O31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwprg:2021/12&r= |
| By: | Alessio Muscillo; Simona Re; Sergio Gambacorta; Giuseppe Ferrara; Nicola Tagliafierro; Emiliano Borello; Alessandro Rubino; Angelo Facchini |
| Abstract: | We present a circularity transition index based on open data principles and circularity of energy, material, and information. The aim of the Circular City Index is to provide data and a succinct measurement of the attributes related to municipalities performances that can support the definition of green policies at national and local level. We have identified a set of key performance indicators, defined at municipality level, measuring factors that, directly and indirectly, could influence circularity and green transition, with a focus on the green new deal vision embraced by the European Union. The CCI is tested on a open dataset that collects data covering 100% of the Italian municipalities (7,904). Our results show that the computation of the CCI on a large sample leads to a normal distribution of the index, suggesting disparities both under the territorial point of view and under the point of view of city size. Results provide useful information to practitioner, policy maker and experts from academia alike, to define effective tools able to underpin a careful planning of investments supported by the national recovery and resilience plan recently issued by the Italian government. This may be particularly useful to enhance enabling factors of the green transition that may differ across territories, helping policymakers to promote a smooth and fair transition by fostering the preparedness of municipalities in addressing the challenge. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10832&r= |
| By: | Marco Ranaldi |
| Abstract: | This article studies global distributions of capital and labor income among individuals in 2000 and 2016. By constructing a novel database covering approx-imately the 80% of the global output and the 60% of the world population, two major findings stand out. First, the world underwent a spectacular process of cap-italization. The share of world individuals with positive capital income rose from 20% to 32%. Second, the global middle class benefited the most, in relative terms, from such capitalization process. In China, the average growth rate of capital in-come was 20 times higher than in western economies. The global composition of capital and labor income is, therefore, more equal today than it was twenty years ago, and the world is moving towards a global multiple-sources-of-income society. |
| JEL: | D31 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:808&r= |
| By: | Pihnastyi, Oleh; Sytnikova, Anastasiya |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the results of the model for forecasting the flow parameters of a distributed transport system of the conveyor type are briefly considered. It is shown that the model of the transport system based on the neural network can be successfully applied to predict the flow parameters of the transport system which consists of a very large number of sections. |
| Keywords: | conveyor; forecasting model; neural network |
| JEL: | C02 C14 C25 C44 D24 L23 Q21 |
| Date: | 2021–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109770&r= |
| By: | Ahmed S. Alahmed; Lang Tong |
| Abstract: | We introduce NEM X, an inclusive retail tariff model that captures features of existing net energy metering (NEM) policies. It is shown that the optimal prosumer decision has three modes: (a) the net-consuming mode where the prosumer consumes more than its behind-the-meter distributed energy resource (DER) production when the DER production is below a predetermined lower threshold, (b) the net-producing mode where the prosumer consumes less than its DER production when the DER production is above a predetermined upper threshold, and (c) the net-zero energy mode where the prosumer's consumption matches to its DER generation when its DER production is between the lower and upper thresholds. Both thresholds are obtained in closed-form. Next, we analyze the regulator's rate-setting process that determines NEM X parameters such as retail/sell rates, fixed charges, and price differentials in TOU tariffs in on and off-peak periods. A stochastic Ramsey pricing program is formulated that maximizes social welfare subject to the revenue break-even constraint for the regulated utility. Performance of NEM X policies is evaluated using real and synthetic data to illuminate impacts of NEM policy designs on social welfare, cross-subsidies of prosumers by consumers, and payback time of DER investments that affect long-run DER adoptions. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09977&r= |
| By: | Jean-Charles Bricongne; Baptiste Meunier; Sylvain Pouget |
| Abstract: | While official statistics provide lagged and aggregate information on the housing market, extensive information is available publicly on real-estate websites. By web scraping them for the UK on a daily basis, this paper extracts a large database from which we build timelier and highly granular indicators. One originality of the dataset is to provide the sellers’ perspective, allowing to compute innovative indicators of the housing market such as the number of new posted offers or how prices fluctuate over time for existing offers. Matching selling prices in our dataset with transacted prices from the notarial database using machine learning techniques allows us to measure the negotiation margin of buyers – an innovation to the literature. During the Covid-19 crisis, these indicators demonstrate the freezing of the market and the “wait-and-see” behaviour of sellers. They also show that prices have been increasing in rural regions after the lockdown but experienced a continued decline in London. |
| Keywords: | Housing, Real-time, Big Data, Web Scraping, High Frequency, United Kingdom |
| JEL: | E01 R30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:827&r= |
| By: | Yamna Erraach (INAT - Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie); W. Slimi (INAT - Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie); Mechthild Donner (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ivana Radic (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Feliu López-I-Gelats (UVic-UCC - Fundació Universitària Balmes); Judit Manuel-I-Martin (UVic-UCC - Fundació Universitària Balmes); Fatima El Hadad (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sandrine Costa (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Taoufik Yatribi (ENA - Ecole Nationale d'Agriculture de Meknès) |
| Keywords: | Olive sector,Tunisia,Consumer Knowledge,Consumer perception |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03346746&r= |
| By: | Yonatan Berman; Branko Milanovic |
| Abstract: | Homoploutia describes the situation in which the same people (homo) are wealthy (ploutia) in the space of capital and labor income in some country. It can be quantified by the share of capital-income rich who are also labor-income rich. In this paper we combine several datasets covering different time periods to document the evolution of homoploutia in the United States from 1950 to 2020. We find that homoploutia was low after World War II, has increased by the early 1960s, and then decreased until the mid-1980s. Since 1985 it has been sharply increasing: In 1985, about 17% of adults in the top decile of capital-income earners were also in the top decile of labor-income earners. In 2018 this indicator was about 30%. This makes the traditional division to capitalists and laborers less relevant today. It makes periods characterized by high interpersonal inequality, high capital-income ratio and high capital share of income in the past fundamentally different from the current situation. High homoploutia has far-reaching implications for social mobility and equality of opportunity. We also study how homoploutia is related to total income inequality. We find that rising homoploutia accounts for about 20% of the increase in total income inequality in the United States since 1986. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:806&r= |
| By: | Jeffrey Clemens; Michael R. Strain |
| Abstract: | This paper advances the use of pre-analysis plans in non-experimental research settings. In a study of recent minimum wage changes, we demonstrate how analyses of medium- and long-run impacts of policy interventions can be pre-specified as extensions to short-run analyses. Further, our pre-analysis plan includes comparisons of the effects of large vs. small minimum wage increases, which is a theoretically motivated dimension of heterogeneity. We discuss how these use cases harness the strengths of pre-analysis plans while mitigating their weaknesses. This project’s initial analyses explored CPS and ACS data from 2011 through 2015. Alongside these analyses, we pre-committed to analyses incorporating CPS and ACS data extending through 2019. Averaging across the specifications in our pre-analysis plan, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced employment rates among low-skilled individuals by just over 2.5 percentage points. Our estimates of the effects of relatively small minimum wage increases vary across data sets and specifications but are, on average, both economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. We estimate that medium-run effects exceed short-run effects and that the elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage is substantially more negative for large minimum wage increases than for small increases. |
| JEL: | J08 J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29264&r= |
| By: | Albertazzi, Ugo; Martin, Alberto; Assouan, Emmanuelle; Tristani, Oreste; Galati, Gabriele; Vlassopoulos, Thomas; Adolf, Petra; Kok, Christoffer; Altavilla, Carlo; Lewis, Vivien; Andreeva, Desislava; Lima, Diana; Brand, Claus; Musso, Alberto; Bussière, Matthieu; Nikolov, Kalin; Fahr, Stephan; Patriček, Matic; Fourel, Valère; Prieto, Esteban; Heider, Florian; Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria; Idier, Julien; Signoretti, Federico; Aban, Jorge; Busch, Ulrike; Ambrocio, Gene; Cassar, Alan; Balfoussia, Hiona; Chalamandaris, Dimitrios; Bonatti, Guido; Cuciniello, Vincenzo; Bonfim, Diana; Eller, Markus; Bouchinha, Miguel; Falagiarda, Matteo; Fernandez, Luis; Maddaloni, Angela; Garabedian, Garo; Mazelis, Falk; Geiger, Felix; Miettinen, Pavo; Grassi, Alberto; Nakov, Anton; Hristov, Nikolay; Obradovic, Goran; Ibas, Pelin; Papageorghiou, Maria; Ioannidis, Michael; Pogulis, Armands; Jan, Jansen David; Redak, Vanessa; Jovanovic, Mario; Velez, Anatoli Segura; Kakes, Jan; Tapking, Jens; Kempf, Alina; Valderrama, Maria; Klein, Melanie; Weigert, Benjamin; Licak, Marek |
| Abstract: | Since the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) 2003 strategy review, the importance of macro-financial amplification channels for monetary policy has increasingly gained recognition. This paper takes stock of this evolution and discusses the desirability of further incremental enhancements in the role of financial stability considerations in the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. The paper starts with the premise that macroprudential policy, along with microprudential supervision, is the first line of defence against the build-up of financial imbalances. It also recognises that the pursuit of price stability through monetary policy, and of financial stability through macroprudential policy, are to a large extent complementary. Nevertheless, macroprudential policy may not be able to ensure financial stability independently of monetary policy, because of spillovers originating from the common transmission channels through which the two policies produce their effects. For example, a low interest rate environment can create incentives to engage in more risk-taking, or can adversely impact the profitability of financial intermediaries and hence their capacity to absorb shocks. The paper argues that the existence of such spillovers creates a conceptual case for monetary policy to take financial stability considerations into account. It then goes on to discuss what this conclusion might imply in practice for the ECB. One option would be to exploit the flexible length of the medium-term horizon over which price stability is to be achieved. Longer deviations from price stability could occasionally be tolerated, if they resulted in materially lower risks for financial stability and, ultimately, for future price stability. ... JEL Classification: E3, E44, G01, G21 |
| Keywords: | financial frictions, Monetary policy, systemic risk |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021272&r= |
| By: | Jaime AragÓn Falomir (Université des Antilles (Pôle Guadeloupe) - UA - Université des Antilles, CRILLASH - Centre de Recherches Interdisciplinaires en Lettres, Langues, Arts et Sciences Humaines - UA - Université des Antilles) |
| Abstract: | Afectada oficialmente por la pandemia COVID19 en los primeros días de marzo de 2020, la cuenca del Caribe causa preocupación por la fragilidad de su tejido social y las grandes disparidades en las políticas de salud pública entre un Estado y otro, que hacen imposible una respuesta conjunta a esa plaga a nivel regional. La situación se agravó a finales de mayo con la supresión de la financiación estadounidense a la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) que tendrá como mayor consecuencia a mediano o largo plazo la reducción de las intervenciones y la desaparición de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS), institución emblemática en la lucha contra las epidemias en las islas y en el continente. Al 20 de julio de 2020, el medio de comunicación de Loop haïti registraba en el área del Caribe a 77.320 casos acumulados de COVID-19, 53.519 de los cuales solamente en la República Dominicana. Once semanas más tarde, la misma fuente registra a un total de 211.490 enfermos desde inicios de la pandemia, con más del 50 por ciento en La República Dominicana, que ha tenido más de 400 muertes adicionales desde mediados de agosto. El país está pagando un alto precio debido a un año electoral particularmente ajetreado en el que se produjo un cambio profundo del liderazgo político. |
| Date: | 2021–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03344304&r= |
| By: | Jo-Ann Suchard (UNSW Business School, University of New South Wales Sydney.); Giang Nguyen (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University.); Yuelin Wang (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University.) |
| Abstract: | Using comprehensive social capital data of U.S. counties from the Social Capital Project, we show evidence that the county-level social capital where the acquirer is located is positively related to the acquirer’s announcement returns. This finding withstands alternative model specifications and remains robust to endogeneity concerns. We also document that social capital has a more pronounced effect on the acquirer’s announcement returns when the supermajority to approve a merger, acquirer size, the deal size, and the ratio of stock payment are larger and the percentage of blockholder ownership is smaller. Additionally, we find that social capital creates more synergies, enhances acquirers’ long-term performance, and shortens deal completion duration. Overall, our results support the shareholder value maximization view that social capital constrains managerial opportunistic and selfserving behaviors, which leads to better acquisition outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Social Social Capital, Merger and Acquisition, Shareholder Value Maximization. |
| JEL: | G34 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2117&r= |
| By: | Rohan Kekre; Moritz Lenel |
| Abstract: | We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time-varying demand for safe dollar bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the U.S. than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities. A flight to safety generates a dollar appreciation and decline in global output. Dollar bonds thus command a negative risk premium and the U.S. holds a levered portfolio of capital financed in dollars. We quantify the effects of safety shocks and heterogeneity in risk-bearing capacity for global macroeconomic volatility; U.S. external adjustment; and the international transmission of monetary and fiscal policies, including dollar swap lines. |
| JEL: | E44 F44 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29238&r= |
| By: | Antoine Djogbenou; Christian Gouri\'eroux; Joann Jasiak; Maygol Bandehali |
| Abstract: | We introduce the Maximum Composite Likelihood (MCL) estimation method for the stochastic factor ordered Probit model of credit rating transitions of firms. This model is recommended to banks and financial institutions as part of internal credit risk assessment procedures under the Basel III regulations. However, its exact likelihood function involves a high-dimensional integral, which can be approximated numerically and next this approximation can be maximized. However, the associated estimates of migration risk and corresponding required capital are generally quite sensitive to the quality of this approximation, leading to statistical regulatory arbitrage. The proposed MCL estimator maximizes the composite log-likelihood of the factor ordered Probit model. We present three MCL estimators of different complexity and prove their consistency and asymptotic normality. The performance of these estimators is examined in a simulation study. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09043&r= |
| By: | Magnus Hansson |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the content of central bank speech communication from 1997 through 2020 and asks the following questions: (i) What global topics do central banks talk about? (ii) How do these topics evolve over time? I turn to natural language processing, and more specifically Dynamic Topic Models, to answer these questions. The analysis consists of an aggregate study of nine major central banks and a case study of the Federal Reserve, which allows for region specific control variables. I show that: (i) Central banks address a broad range of topics. (ii) The topics are well captured by Dynamic Topic Models. (iii) The global topics exhibit strong and significant autoregressive properties not easily explained by financial control variables. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10058&r= |
| By: | Vanesa Jorda; José María Sarabia; Markus Jäntti |
| Abstract: | Grouped data in the form of income shares have conventionally been used to estimate income inequality due to the lack of individual records. We provide guidance on the choice between parametric and nonparametric methods and its estimation, for which we develop the GB2group R package. We present a systematic evaluation of the performance of parametric distributions to estimate economic inequality. The accuracy of these estimates is compared with those obtained by nonparametric techniques in more than 5000 datasets. Our results indicate that even the simplest parametric models provide reliable estimates of inequality measures. The nonparametric approach, however, fails to represent income distributions accurately. |
| JEL: | D31 C13 C18 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:804&r= |
| By: | Areski Cousin (IRMA); J\'er\^ome Lelong (LJK); Ragnar Norberg (ISFA); Tom Picard (DAO, LJK) |
| Abstract: | Analyzing the effect of business cycle on rating transitions has been a subject of great interest these last fifteen years, particularly due to the increasing pressure coming from regulators for stress testing. In this paper, we consider that the dynamics of rating migrations is governed by an unobserved latent factor. Under a point process filtering framework, we explain how the current state of the hidden factor can be efficiently inferred from observations of rating histories. We then adapt the classical Baum-Welsh algorithm to our setting and show how to estimate the latent factor parameters. Once calibrated, we may reveal and detect economic changes affecting the dynamics of rating migration, in real-time. To this end we adapt a filtering formula which can then be used for predicting future transition probabilities according to economic regimes without using any external covariates. We propose two filtering frameworks: a discrete and a continuous version. We demonstrate and compare the efficiency of both approaches on fictive data and on a corporate credit rating database. The methods could also be applied to retail credit loans. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10567&r= |
| By: | Katarzyna A. Bilicka; Daniela Scur |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of a firm’s organizational capacity on the reported profitability of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Better organizational practices improve productivity and the potential taxable profits of firms. However, higher adoption of these practices may also enable more efficient allocation of profits across tax jurisdictions, lowering actual taxable profits. We present new evidence that MNE subsidiaries with better such practices, when located in high-tax countries, report significantly lower profits and have a higher incidence of bunching around zero returns on assets. We show these results are driven by patterns consistent with profit-shifting behavior. Further, using an event study design, we find that firms with better practices are more responsive to corporate tax rate changes. Our results suggest organizational capacity, especially monitoring-related practices, enables firms to engage in shifting profits away from their high-tax subsidiaries. |
| JEL: | H26 H32 M11 M2 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29225&r= |
| By: | Ioannidis, Michael; Murphy, Sarah Jane Hlásková; Zilioli, Chiara |
| Abstract: | This paper offers an overview of the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB), as defined by its objectives, the instruments available to achieve them and the constitutional framework that the ECB shall observe in pursuing them. The objectives include the primary objective of maintaining price stability and the secondary objective of supporting the general economic policies in the Union. The price stability objective enjoys primacy amongst the ECB objectives. The Treaties do not provide for a hierarchy of the “general economic policies” that the ECB shall support, although a number of criteria derived from primary law can help in guiding the ECB’s priorities in this respect. The ECB is also tasked with contributing to the “smooth conduct of policies pursued by the competent authorities relating to the prudential supervision of credit institutions and the stability of the financial system”. As for the instruments available, these include both measures that directly pursue the objectives and measures that are instrumental in achieving them. Finally, the other constitutional rules that set out the framework within which the ECB pursues its objectives include the principles of conferral, institutional balance, proportionality, equal treatment and non-discrimination, as well as the principle of an open market economy and the prohibition of monetary financing. JEL Classification: K23, G21, G28 |
| Keywords: | ECB mandate, ESCB objectives, price stability, principle of conferral, principle of proportionality |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021276&r= |
| By: | Charles Beach |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a tool box of disaggregative measures of distributional change, including population shares, income shares, quantile mean incomes and relative mean incomes of different income groups. It highlights median-based measures along with quintiles and deciles. It also offers formulas for the measures’ standard errors and a common framework for statistical inference on these measures. Illustrating these tools with Census and LFS microdata, the paper highlights the substantial decline in earnings shares and relative mean earnings levels of middle-class workers in Canada since 1980 and the corresponding dramatic rise in these measures for higher earners in the labour market. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, inequality tool box, statistical inference |
| JEL: | C12 C46 D31 D63 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1466&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Chi-Hai; Ngo, Quang-Thanh; Pham, My-Duyen; Nguyen, Anh-Tuan; Huynh, Ngoc-Chuong |
| Abstract: | The current article examines the factors affecting economic linkages in the Southern Key Economic Zone of Vietnam, using a unique 5-year firm-level dataset with 5050 observations, using a unique 5-year firm-level dataset with 5050 observations, which is collected and merged from two data sources namely the Vietnam Technology and Competitiveness Survey and the Vietnam Annual Enterprise Survey in 2015-2019. Empirical results from estimating panel logit models based on different types of economic linkages such as (1) backward economic linkage with the domestic supplier, (2) backward economic linkage with a foreign supplier, (3) forward economic linkage with the domestic customer, and (4) forward economic linkage with a foreign customer reveal the importance of firm characteristics, technology transfer, and economic constraints that cause firms to conduct economic linkages across firm sizes and types of ownership. There is clear evidence for the determinants of economic linkages in manufacturing sectors by firm sizes, and by ownership in this analysis are concerned. To be specific, based on a regression analysis, employment, firm’s experience, technology transfer, and economic constraints stand out as the major drivers of economic linkage of various forms. In addition, results reveal several patterns of economic linkages such as domestic technology embodied economic linkage, local supply-chain technology embodied economic linkage, international/global supply-chain technology embodied economic linkage, local market-explored economic linkage, local market privilege, and foreign market privilege. Moreover, it is evidence that investments in basic infrastructure, transport infrastructure, communication infrastructure, removal of financing constraints, increase the labor supply, improvement of working skills of laborers have favored the growth of economic linkages. Our results initiate policy implications in the context that, apart from the firm’s and the industry sector’s characteristics, economic obstacles and the nature of technology transfer significantly influence the firm’s behaviors of conducting economic linkages in various firm sizes and types of ownership. |
| Keywords: | Economic linkages; vertical (or backward) linkages, horizontal (or forward) linkages, key economic zone; manufacturing firms; Vietnam |
| JEL: | M14 N14 |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109670&r= |
| By: | Despoina Alempaki; Valeria Burdea; Daniel Read |
| Abstract: | In cases of conflict of interest, people can lie directly about payoff relevant private information, or they can evade the truth without lying directly. We analyse this situation theoretically and test the key predictions in an experimental sender-receiver setting. We find senders prefer to deceive through evasion rather than direct lying. This is because they do nοt want to deceive others, and they do nοt want to be seen as deceptive. The specific language of evasion does not matter. The results suggest deception should be tested in more naturalistic contexts with richer language. |
| JEL: | C91 D82 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9286&r= |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of demand composition in explaining the trade collapse and recovery during the ongoing covid-19 crisis. We apply an import-intensity-adjusted measure of demand to examineimport trends in 40 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1Q95 to 4Q20. We focus on the crisis periods related to covid-19 and the global financial crisis in 2008–2009. As during the global financial crisis, we find that import-intensity-adjusted demand is a key factor contributing to trade developments during the covid-19 crisis. The analysis also reveals substantial differences between the current crisis and the global financial crisis. Trade decline during the global financial crisis was heavily investment-led. In the current crisis, consumption and import demand from the service sector have had much larger roles. The recovery of trade has been notably faster during the covid-19 crisis and led by exports as opposed to the much more important role played by domestic demand during the global financial crisis. |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F17 G01 |
| Date: | 2021–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2021_012&r= |
| By: | Csóka, Péter; Herings, P. Jean-Jacques (RS: GSBE Theme Data-Driven Decision-Making, RS: GSBE Theme Conflict & Cooperation, Microeconomics & Public Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study bankruptcy problems in financial networks in the presence of general bankruptcy laws. The set of clearing payment matrices is shown to be a lattice, which guarantees the existence of a greatest and a least clearing payment. Multiplicity of clearing payment matrices is both a theoretical and a practical concern. We present a new condition for uniqueness that generalizes all the existing conditions proposed in the literature. Our condition depends on the decomposition of the financial network into strongly connected components. A strongly connected component which contains more than one agent is called a cycle and the involved agents are called cyclical agents. If there is a cycle without successors, then one of the agents in such a cycle should have a positive endowment. The division rule used by a cyclical agent with a positive endowment should be positive monotonic and the rule used by a cyclical agent with a zero endowment should be strictly monotonic. Since division rules involving priorities are not positive monotonic, uniqueness of the clearing payment matrix is a much bigger concern for such division rules than for proportional ones. We also show how uniqueness of clearing payment matrices is related to continuity of bankruptcy rules. |
| JEL: | C71 G10 |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2021014&r= |
| By: | Aberg, Pontus; Corsi, Marco; Grossmann-Wirth, Vincent; Hudepohl, Tom; Mudde, Yvo; Rosolin, Tiziana; Schobert, Franziska |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses commercial banks’ demand for central bank reserves under two alternative monetary policy framework configurations, namely: (i) an interest rate corridor system with scarce liquidity, and (ii) a floor system with ample liquidity. It outlines the interaction between the monetary implementation framework used to steer short-term market interest rates and banks’ demand for reserves. We find that by implementing a floor system, the Eurosystem has eliminated the opportunity costs of holding reserves and enabled banks to hold relatively large buffers of reserves compared with the corridor system. Additionally, the demand for reserves may have increased endogenously, as the environment of ample liquidity conditions has incentivised many banks to adapt their business models. In parallel, the demand for reserves has also increased for more exogenous reasons such as post-global financial crisis liquidity regulation and increased liquidity concentration. Our estimates indicate an increase, over recent years, in the level of excess liquidity required in the euro area to avoid a rise in short-term market rates. Moreover, the dependency on the adopted monetary policy instruments and the external environment highlights the increased uncertainty in estimating future levels of required reserves JEL Classification: E41, E44, E50, E51, E58 |
| Keywords: | central bank reserves, ECB, Eurosystem, liquidity management, monetary policy implementation |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021282&r= |
| By: | Minho Kim; Munseob Lee; Yongseok Shin |
| Abstract: | Does industrial policy work? This is a subject of long-standing debates among economists and policymakers. Using newly digitized microdata, we evaluate the Korean government's policy that promoted heavy and chemical industries between 1973 and 1979 by cutting taxes and building new industrial complexes for them. We show that output, input use, and labor productivity of the targeted industries and regions grew significantly faster than those of non-targeted ones. While the plant-level total factor productivity also grew faster in targeted industries and regions, the misallocation of resources within them got significantly worse, especially among the entrants, so that the total factor productivity at the industry-region level did not increase relative to the non-targeted industries and regions. In addition, we provide new evidence on how industrial policy reshapes the economy: (i) The establishment size distribution of targeted industries and regions shifted to the right with thicker tails due to the entry of large establishments and (ii) the targeted industries became more important in the economy's input-output structure in the sense that their output multipliers increased significantly more. |
| JEL: | E24 O14 O25 O53 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29252&r= |
| By: | Julia Wardley-Kershaw; Klaus R. Schenk-Hoppé |
| Abstract: | Economic growth transformed the world. Its measurement via GDP has risen to prominence as the pre-eminent metric of economic prowess and political success. How better to tell its story than through the lens of the world's first growing economy? Britain's experience with economic growth has been a rocky path of tremendous highs and despairing lows, but despite crises and shifts in industry growth has rolled with the punches. Our work presents an analysis of growth and crisis in the UK, surveying key ideas from academic literature in an engaging and informative manner, accessible to readers with or without a background in Economics. Our paper studies defining events in Britain's past relationship with growth, whilst engaging with pertinent contemporary debates surrounding its future. We explore the drivers of growth, the restructuring effects of crisis on productivity and employment, and the socioeconomic impacts of restricted access to the growing economy. We hope that our work provides context and depth to modern discussions, enabling readers to evaluate growth and crisis in a new light and to inform their perspectives on future growth. |
| JEL: | O1 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:2108&r= |
| By: | Svartzman Romain,; Espagne Etienne,; Gauthey Julien,; Hadji-Lazaro Paul,; Salin Mathilde,; Allen Thomas,; Berger Joshua,; Calas Julien,; Godin Antoine,; Vallier Antoine |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to an emerging literature aimed at uncovering the linkages between biodiversity loss and financial instability, by exploring biodiversity-related financial risks (BRFR) in France. We first build on previous studies and propose an analytical framework to understand BRFR, emphasizing the complexity involved and the limited substitutability of natural capital. We then provide quantitative estimates of dependencies and impacts of the French financial system on biodiversity. We find that 42% of the value of securities held by French financial institutions comes from issuers that are highly or very highly dependent on one or more ecosystem services. We also find that the accumulated terrestrial biodiversity footprint of these securities is comparable to the loss of at least 130,000 km² of “pristine” nature, which corresponds to the complete artificialization of 24% of the area of metropolitan France. Finally, we suggest avenues for future research through which these estimates could feed into future assessments of physical and transition risks. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity; Financial stability; Environmental risks; Scenario analysis; Financial markets and the macroeconomy; Valuation of ecosystem services. |
| JEL: | C67 D81 E44 G32 Q51 Q57 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:826&r= |
| By: | Katarzyna Anna Bilicka; Daniela Scur |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of a firm’s organizational capacity on the reported profitability of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Better organizational practices improve productivity and the potential taxable profits of firms. However, higher adoption of these practices may also enable more efficient allocation of profits across tax jurisdictions, lowering actual taxable profits. We present new evidence that MNE subsidiaries with better such practices, when located in high-tax countries, report significantly lower profits and have a higher incidence of bunching around zero returns on assets. We show these results are driven by patterns consistent with profit-shifting behavior. Further, using an event study design, we find that firms with better practices are more responsive to corporate tax rate changes. Our results suggest organizational capacity, especially monitoring-related practices, enables firms to engage in shifting profits away from their high-tax subsidiaries. |
| Keywords: | profit shifting, organizational capacity, monitoring practices, multinational firms |
| JEL: | H26 H32 M11 M20 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9284&r= |
| By: | Adrien Bilal |
| Abstract: | Unemployment rates differ widely across local labor markets. I offer new empirical evidence that high local unemployment emerges because of elevated local job losing rates. Local employers, rather than local workers, account for most of spatial gaps in job stability. I then propose a theory in which spatial differences in job loss arise endogenously, due to the spatial sorting of heterogeneous employers across local labor markets. Labor market frictions induce productive employers to over-value locating close to each other. The optimal policy incentivizes them to relocate to areas with high job losing rates, providing a rationale for commonly used place-based policies. I estimate the model using French administrative data. The estimated model accounts for over three fourths of the cross-sectional dispersion in unemployment rates, as well as for the respective contributions of job losing and job finding rates. Employers' inefficient location choices amplify spatial unemployment differentials five-fold. Both real-world and optimal place-based policies can yield sizable local and aggregate welfare gains. |
| JEL: | E20 E24 E60 F16 H21 J42 J61 J63 J64 R13 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29269&r= |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Ming Li |
| Abstract: | We empirically test whether the Department of Justice (DOJ) engages in ethnic prejudice against Chinese in its prosecutorial decisions under the Economic Espionage Act (EEA) of 1996. Using data of EEA cases from November 1996 to June 2021, we conduct Becker's outcome test for evidence of ethnic prejudice. We find that Chinese-named defendants were more likely to be dismissed by trial or acquitted by jury, and were found guilty on fewer counts, and on average received harsher indictments. These results are robust regardless of whether we consider all cases or only arguably ``marginal'' cases. We also find that, for those publicly listed victim firms whose trade secrets were allegedly stolen by the charged defendants, the stock market reaction was much more muted to the news on the case filing date if the charged defendants are of Chinese descent. Our study provides the first systematic evidence that the DOJ's prosecutorial decisions in the application of the EEA may have been tainted by ethnic prejudice against Chinese, including American citizens of Chinese descent. |
| JEL: | J71 K4 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29272&r= |
| By: | Georges Casamatta (LISA - Lieux, Identités, eSpaces, Activités - UPP - Université Pascal Paoli - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We determine the optimal income tax schedule when individuals have the possibility of avoiding paying taxes. Considering a convex concealment cost function, we find that a subset of individuals, located in the interior of the income distribution, should be allowed to avoid taxes, provided that the marginal cost of avoiding the first euro is sufficiently small. This contrasts with the results of Grochulski (2007) who shows that, with a subadditive cost function, all individuals should declare their true income. We also provide a characterization of the optimal income tax curve. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03089241&r= |
| By: | Thomas Neuber (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Social norms pervade human interaction, but their demands are often in conflict. To understand behavior, it is thus crucial to know how individuals resolve normative tradeoffs. This paper proposes that sincere judgments about the relative importance of conflicting norms are shaped by personal interest. We show that people tend to follow norms from which they benefit themselves, even in contexts where their own decisions only affect others. In a (virtual) laboratory experiment, each subject makes two decisions over allocations of points within a group of two other participants. The sets of possible allocations entail different normative tradeoffs, and subjects have no personal stakes in their own decisions. However, they are affected by others' decisions: each subject is part of a group, and the members of different groups simultaneously decide over others' allocations along a circle. We find that subjects' decisions are biased towards the normative principles aligned with their own interests, thereby favoring other players whenever these share those interests. Subjects' beliefs about the choices made by others suggest a largely unconscious mechanism. Moreover, survey answers indicate that the effects are driven by self-centered reasoning: subjects who report pronounced perspective-taking are less biased. |
| Keywords: | egocentrism, experiment, social norms |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:116&r= |
| By: | Yiming Cao; Benjamin Enke; Armin Falk; Paola Giuliano; Nathan Nunn |
| Abstract: | According to the widely known ‘culture of honor’ hypothesis from social psychology, traditional herding practices are believed to have generated a value system that is conducive to revenge-taking and violence. We test this idea at a global scale using a combination of ethnographic records, historical folklore information, global data on contemporary conflict events, and large-scale surveys. The data show systematic links between traditional herding practices and a culture of honor. First, the culture of pre-industrial societies that relied on animal herding emphasizes violence, punishment, and revenge-taking. Second, contemporary ethnolinguistic groups that historically subsisted more strongly on herding have more frequent and severe conflict today. Third, the contemporary descendants of herders report being more willing to take revenge and punish unfair behavior in the globally representative Global Preferences Survey. In all, the evidence supports the idea that this form of economic subsistence generated a functional psychology that has persisted until today and plays a role in shaping conflict across the globe. |
| JEL: | N0 Z1 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29250&r= |
| By: | Sarah Flood; Joel F.S. McMurry; Aaron Sojourner; Matthew J. Wiswall |
| Abstract: | Using every major nationally-representative dataset on parental and non-parental care provided to children up to age 6, we quantify differences in American children’s care experiences by socioeconomic status (SES), proxied primarily with maternal education. Increasingly, higher-SES children spend less time with their parents and more time in the care of others. Non-parental care for high-SES children is more likely to be in childcare centers, where average quality is higher, and less likely to be provided by relatives where average quality is lower. Even within types of childcare, higher-SES children tend to receive care of higher measured quality and higher cost. Inequality is evident at home as well: measures of parental enrichment at home, from both self-reports and outside observers, are on average higher for higher-SES children. We also find that parental and non-parental quality is reinforcing: children who receive higher quality non-parental care also tend to receive higher quality parental care. Head Start, one of the largest government care subsidy programs for low-income households, reduces inequality in care provided, but it is mainly limited to older children and to the lowest income households. Our evidence is from the pre-COVID-19 period, and the latest year we examine is 2019. |
| JEL: | I24 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29249&r= |
| By: | James Holehouse; Hector Pollitt |
| Abstract: | We solve the binary decision model of Brock and Durlauf (2001) in time using methods often employed in studies of stochastic complex systems. This solution is valid when not at equilibrium and can be used to exemplify path-dependent behaviours of their model. The solution is computationally fast and is indistinguishable from Monte Carlo simulation. Lock-in effects are observed in some regions of the model's parameter space, and we calculate the time scale of the lock-ins. Curiously, we find that although altruistic agents coalesce more strongly on a particular decision, increasing their utility in the short-term, they are also more prone to being stuck in a non-optimal decision lock-in as compared to selfish agents. Finally, we construct a likelihood function that can be used on non-equilibrium data for model calibration. Even with a well-defined likelihood function, model calibration is difficult unless one has access to data representative of the underlying model. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09633&r= |
| By: | Knut Are Aastveit; Hilde C. Bjørnland; Thomas S. Gundersen |
| Abstract: | Shale oil producers respond positively and significantly to favourable oil price signals. This finding is established using a novel proprietary data set consisting of more than 200,000 shale wells across ten U.S. states spanning almost two decades. We document large heterogeneity in the estimated responses across the various shale wells, suggesting that aggregation bias is an important issue for this kind of analysis. We find responses to be stronger for the largest oil producing firms, among wells that are spaced further apart and in regions where the density of shale wells is higher. The response also depend on the level of production. Our empirical results calls for new models that can account for a growing share of shale oil in the U.S., the inherent flexibility of shale extraction technology in production and the role of shale oil in transmitting oil price shocks to the U.S. economy. |
| Keywords: | Oil price, Shale oil supply, Well-level panel data |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bny:wpaper:0101&r= |
| By: | Elda N. Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Joseph I. Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to critically examine the agri-business/small and medium investment schemes (AGSMEIS) in Nigeria. Its special focus is to investigate the impact of the AGSMEIS on youth entrepreneurship development in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach – This paper adopts a survey research technique, aimed at gathering information from a representative sample of the population, as it is essentially cross-sectional, describing and interpreting the current situation. A total of 1,200 respondents were sampled across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Findings – The results from the use of a combined propensity score matching (PSM) and logit model indicate that AGSMEIS initiative generates significance gains in empowering youths in enterprise development, and if enhanced will help many young people become entrepreneurs. Practical implications – This suggests that AGSMEIS initiative can facilitate youth’s access to credit and help them become owners of small and medium enterprises. Social implications – It implies that investing in young people for small and medium enterprises could bring Nigeria into the modern economy and lift sub-Saharan Africa out of poverty. Originality/value – This research adds to the literature on youth entrepreneurship development’s debate in developing countries. It concludes that targeting the young people in AGSMEIS should form the foundation of public policy for entrepreneurship, poverty alleviation, and economic development. |
| Keywords: | Agri-business/small and medium investment schemes (AGSMEIS), youth entrepreneurship development, sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/046&r= |
| By: | Takaaki Abe (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1, Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan.); Satoshi Nakada (School of Management, Department of Business Economics, Tokyo University of Science, 1-11-2, Fujimi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 102-0071, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | Our objective is to analyze the relationship between the Shapley value and the core of cooperative games with transferable utility. We first characterize balanced games, namely, the set of games with a nonempty core, by means of geometric properties. We show that the set of balanced games generates a polyhedral cone and that a game is balanced if and only if it is a nonnegative linear combination of some simple games. Moreover, we show that the set of games whose Shapley value is in the core also yields a polyhedral cone and that a game obeys this property if and only if it is a nonnegative linear combination of some “easy” games. In addition, we also show that the number of games that correspond to the extreme rays of the polyhedron coincides with the number of minimal balanced collections. |
| Keywords: | Cooperative games; Shapley value; Core; Minkowski-Weyl’s Theorem |
| JEL: | C71 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2112&r= |
| By: | López López, Diana Lucia; Torres Gómez, Edwin Esteban; Sánchez Salazar, Cristian |
| Abstract: | RESUMEN: En el último siglo se ha evidenciado un importante aumento en la cobertura educativa en Colombia, mientras que la calidad no ha mejorado significativamente. Diferentes proyectos se han implementado para afectar el desempeño escolar pero con escasa evaluación. El objetivo de este trabajo es, específicamente, evaluar el efecto de los programas educativos llevados a cabo en Antioquia entre 2011 y 2015 sobre el desempeño en las pruebas SABER 11. Se estima, inicialmente, un modelo por Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios (OLS) para identificar las características de estudiantes, docentes y colegios que afectan el desempeño educativo en donde se aplicó la política educativa. Adicionalmente, se propone una metodología de análisis por cuartiles mediante un modelo PROBIT Ordenado, considerada una mejor estrategia para identificar efectos de los programas educativos en el corto plazo dada la restricción de información que se tiene. En general, se muestra que la política educativa tuvo efectos favorables, principalmente, sobre los estudiantes que estaban en colegios con más bajo desempeño. Es decir, se evidencia una movilidad de estudiantes entre cuartiles de desempeño cuando se les aplican los programas educativos. ABSTRACT: In the last century, there has been a significant increase in educational coverage in Colombia, while quality has not improved significantly. Different projects have been implemented to affect school performance but with little evaluation. The objective of this paper is, specifically, to evaluate the effect of the educational programs carried out in Antioquia between 2012 and 2015 on the performance of the SABER 11 tests. Initially, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model is estimated to identify the characteristics of students, teachers and schools that affect the educational performance in which the educational policy was applied. Additionally, an analysis methodology by quartiles is proposed by means of an Ordered PROBIT model, considered a good strategy to identify effects of educational programs in the short term with the restriction of information that is available. In general, it is shown that the educational policy had favorable effects, mainly, on the students who were in the lowest performing schools. That is to say, there is evidence of a movility of students between quartiles of performance when the educational programs are applied. |
| Keywords: | Educación, Calidad de la educación, Política pública, Pruebas estandarizadas, Modelos econométricos |
| JEL: | I28 I21 I22 C1 |
| Date: | 2019–10–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:019615&r= |
| By: | Fan Yang (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK.); Colin Angus (Sheffield Alcohol Research Group, Health Economics and Decision Science, ScHARR, University of Sheffield); Ana Duarte (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK.); Duncan Gillespie (Sheffield Alcohol Research Group, Health Economics and Decision Science, ScHARR, University of Sheffield); Mark Sculpher (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK.); Simon Walker (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK.); Susan Griffin (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK) |
| Abstract: | A distribution of intervention impact across socioeconomic groups can be estimated from socioeconomic differences across a staircase from need (e.g. prevalence) up to intervention characteristics (e.g. effectiveness) using distributional cost effectiveness analysis (DCEA). The extent to which evidence on inequality at different steps of the staircase contributes to uncertainty in population level impact is not well understood. We used DCEAs in smoking cessation and alcohol interventions to explore how socioeconomic inequality in model inputs impacts upon final conclusions about health inequality and value for money. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chy:respap:184cherp&r= |
| By: | Ariane Tichit (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This article analyses the social representations of money from survey data. More specifically, it tests how organizers of a complementary currency system have a distinct perception of money compared to other citizens. The main results confirm the existence of significant differences between the two groups. The structure of their representations shows that for the local currency members money is less tied to official institutions, to the symbol of the sovereign State, to labour and to wages than for the representative population segment. This confirms a number of theoretical studies that see these social innovations as forms of protest against the standard system, questioning the sovereign State currency and close to the concept of unconditional income. Local currencies, through the different social representations of money they contain, could well be drivers of societal change. |
| Keywords: | Social representations of money,Survey data,Abric method,Complementary currencies |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03338991&r= |
| By: | TRIPATHI, SABYASACHI |
| Abstract: | The present study assesses the impact of urbanization on health outcomes in Indian states from the period 1971 to 2011. Urbanization is measured by the total urban population, percentage of urban population, and urban population growth rate. Health outcomes are measured by total fertility rates (TFR), crude birth rates (CBR), infant mortality rates (IMR), and life expectancy at birth (LEB). The fixed effect panel data models suggest that urbanization has a strong positive effect on health outcomes by reducing TFR, CBR, IMR, and by increasing LEB. Therefore, we suggest that the increasing urbanization in India is not only beneficial for higher economic growth and development but also for a higher level of health outcomes. The positive urban health outcomes may also be able to control the population growth in India. Therefore, urbanization is essential for holistic development in India. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization, total fertility rate, crude birth rate, infant mortality rate, India |
| JEL: | I1 I15 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109800&r= |
| By: | Uher, Jana |
| Abstract: | Quantitative data are generated differently. To justify inferences about real-world phenomena and establish secured knowledge bases, however, quantitative data generation must follow transparent principles applied consistently across sciences. Metrological frameworks of physical measurement build on two methodological principles that establish transparent, traceable—thus reproducible processes for assigning numerical values to measurands. Data generation traceability requires implementation of unbroken, documented measurand-result connections to justify attributing results to research objects. Numerical traceability requires documented connections of the assigned values to known quantitative standards to establish the results' public interpretability. This article focuses on numerical traceability. It explores how physical measurement units and scales are defined to establish an internationally shared understanding of physical quantities. The underlying principles are applied to scrutinise psychological and social-science practices of quantification. Analyses highlight heterogeneous notions of ‘units’ and ‘scales’ and identify four methodological functions; they serve as (1) ‘instruments’ enabling empirical interactions with study phenomena and properties; (2) structural data format; (3) conceptual data format; and (4) conventionally agreed reference quantities. These distinct functions, employed in different research stages, entail different (if any) rationales for assigning numerical values and for establishing their quantitative meaning. The common numerical recoding of scale categories in tests and questionnaires creates scores devoid of quantitative information. Quantitative meaning is created through numeral-number conflation and differential analyses, producing numerical values that lack systematic relations to known quantity standards regarding the study phenomena and properties. The findings highlight new directions for the conceptualisation and generation of quantitative data in psychology and social sciences. |
| Keywords: | numerical data; quantitative method; replicability; scale; traceability; unit; Marie Curie Fellowship (EC Grant Agreement Number 629430) |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111972&r= |
| By: | Jascha Buchhorn; Berthold U. Wigger |
| Abstract: | Using neural networks, the present study replicates previous results on the prediction of student dropout obtained with decision trees and logistic regressions. For this purpose, multilayer perceptrons are trained on the same data as in the initial study. It is shown that neural networks lead to a significant improvement in the prediction of students at risk. Already after the first semester, potential dropouts can be identified with a probability of 95 percent. |
| Keywords: | neural networks, student dropout, replication study |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9300&r= |
| By: | Pia Schilling; Steven Stillman |
| Abstract: | Exploiting the random allocation of asylum seekers to different locations in Germany, we study the impact of right-wing voting on refugees’ integration. We find that in municipalities with more voting for the right-wing AfD, refugees have worse economic and social integration. These impacts are largest for groups targeted by AfD campaigns and refugees are also more likely to suffer from harassment and right-wing attacks in areas with greater AfD support. Positive interactions with locals are also less likely in these areas. |
| Keywords: | immigrants’ integration, refugees, hostile attitudes, voting behaviour |
| JEL: | J15 J61 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9308&r= |
| By: | F. Marta L. Di Lascio (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy); Andrea Menapace (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy); Roberta Pappadà (University of Trieste, Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore the usefulness of the Ali-Mikhail-Haq copula in defining a new dissimilarity measure to cluster variables in a hierarchical framework. We show that our proposal is particularly sensitive to small dissimilarities based on tiny differences in the dependence level. Therefore, the proposed measure is able to better distinguish between objects with low dissimilarity than classic rank-based dissimilarity measures. Moreover, our proposal is defined in a spatial version that is able to take into account the spatial location of the compared objects. We investigate the proposed measure through Monte Carlo studies and compare it with the corresponding spatial Kendall's correlation-based dissimilarity measure. Furthermore, we develop a clustering methodology to analyze panel data for district heating demand with the aim of finding clusters of buildings homogeneous with respect to their main characteristics, such as energy efficiency and heating surface. |
| Keywords: | Ali-Mikhail-Haq copula, Cluster analysis, District heating demand, Panel data, Spatial dissimilarity. |
| JEL: | C10 C33 C38 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps89&r= |
| By: | Carole Gresse (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Hugo Marin (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | Using data from a peer-to-business crowdlending platform that exploits an auction-driven system to fund corporate loans, we show that non-professional investors are subject to a geographical-proximity bias. They are more likely to win the auctions of borrowers located close to their place of residence notwithstanding that they are not better informed about their creditworthiness. Unexpectedly, this behavioral bias distorts the loan rate discovery processby increasing the cost of funding for borrowers. This adverse effect results from the greaterability of local investors to submit winning bids at an early stage. This ability is gained from their experience in previous auctions of geographically close borrowers. This suggests that the familiarity feeling stemming from geographical closeness strengthens investor attention,and thereby improves lenders' knowledge about the dynamics of the order flow in local borrowers' auctions. |
| Keywords: | peer-to-business crowdlending,crowdfunding,behavioral finance,loan performance,price discovery process |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03338244&r= |
| By: | Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy) |
| Abstract: | The debate on the need for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to foster inclusive growth has intensified following the coming into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic. A conspicuous lacuna in the literature is a lack of rigorous empirical work(s) exploring: (1) the joint effect of economic integration and resource allocation, and (2) social equity policies on inclusive growth in SSA. Using data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and the Global Consumption and Income Project (1980–2019) for 43 SSA countries, I provide evidence robust to several econometric techniques the fixed-effect, random-effect, and the system generalized method of moments estimators to show that: (1) though economic integration induces inclusive growth, the effect is higher in the presence of greater financial deepening and productive government expenditure; (2) relative to economic integration, social equity policies are rather remarkable in enhancing inclusive growth. Policy recommendations are provided in line with the AfCFTA and the reversals of welfare gains due to the coronavirus pandemic. |
| Keywords: | AfCFTA, Economic Integration, Financial Deepening, Globalisation, Inclusive Growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, Social Protection, Social Inclusion |
| JEL: | E6 F14 F15 F6 H5 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/045&r= |
| By: | Ata Atay; Eric Bahel; Tam\'as Solymosi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies matching markets in the presence of middlemen. In our framework, a buyer-seller pair may either trade directly or use the services of a middleman; and a middleman may serve multiple buyer-seller pairs. Direct trade between a buyer and a seller is costlier than a trade mediated by a middleman. For each such market, we examine an associated cooperative game with transferable utility. First, we show that an optimal matching for a matching market with middlemen can be obtained by considering the two-sided assignment market where each buyer-seller pair is allowed to use the mediation service of the middlemen free of charge and attain the maximum surplus. Second, we prove that the core of a matching market with middlemen is always non-empty. Third, we show the existence of a buyer-optimal core allocation and a seller-optimal core allocation. In general, the core does not exhibit a middleman-optimal matching. Finally, we establish the coincidence between the core and the set of competitive equilibrium payoff vectors. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05456&r= |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | This report presents an analysis of current transport activity in India and reviews key policy instruments set up by Indian institutions to shape transport developments in the coming years. It also investigates future scenarios of transport in India and outlines key aspects that should be considered in the upcoming work on transport decarbonisation. The final section builds on these insights, charting a way forward for a climate change mitigation strategy for the Indian transport sector. In particular, it underlines the importance of taking an approach that is not limited to direct GHG emission reductions but takes into account a lifecycle perspective. |
| Date: | 2021–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:88-en&r= |
| By: | Pauline Lécole (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marc Moraine (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we examine the contribution of farmers groups to the agroecological transition and the opportunities that the Common agricultural policy offers for their financing. To this end, we present two case studies of innovative agroecological projects that illustrate the benefits of their collective dimension. We then provide an overview of the measures that exist in the CAP 2014-2020 to support farmers groups. In addition to well-known territorial projects such as LEADER, these measures encourage the pooling of physical capital and, to a lesser extent, the pooling of work. Nevertheless, the CAP still does not provide much support for collective dynamics. Finally, we propose recommendations in terms of public policies to support collectives oriented towards agroecological transition |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, nous questionnons l'apport des collectifs agricoles à la transition agroécologique et les opportunités que la Politique agricole commune offre pour leurs financements. Pour cela, nous présentons deux études de cas de projets agroécologiques innovants qui illustrent les avantages conférés par leur dimension collective. Nous réalisons ensuite un état des lieux des dispositifs qui existent dans la PAC 2014-2020 pour soutenir les collectifs agricoles. En plus des projets de territoires bien connus comme LEADER, ces dispositifs favorisent la mutualisation de capital physique et dans une moindre mesure la mutualisation du travail. La PAC soutient néanmoins encore assez peu les démarches collectives. Pour finir, nous proposons des recommandations en termes de politiques publiques visant à favoriser le soutien de collectifs orientés vers la transition agroécologique. |
| Keywords: | farmers collectives,common agricultural policy,agroecology,collectifs agricoles,politique agricole commune,agroécologie |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03340632&r= |
| By: | Philipp Ketz; Adam McCloskey |
| Abstract: | We provide adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters when some of the nuisance parameters have known signs. The confidence intervals are adaptive in the sense that they tend to be short at and near the points where the nuisance parameters are equal to zero. We focus our results primarily on the practical problem of inference on a coefficient of interest in the linear regression model when it is unclear whether or not it is necessary to include a subset of control variables whose partial effects on the dependent variable have known directions (signs). Our confidence intervals are trivial to compute and can provide significant length reductions relative to standard confidence intervals in cases for which the control variables do not have large effects. At the same time, they entail minimal length increases at any parameter values. We prove that our confidence intervals are asymptotically valid uniformly over the parameter space and illustrate their length properties in an empirical application to a factorial design field experiment and a Monte Carlo study calibrated to the empirical application. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.08222&r= |
| By: | Rabie, Dina |
| Abstract: | Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (RoSCAs) is a widely spread informal financial institution in developing countries. This paper examines how access to formal banking (or lack thereof), impatience and self-control are correlated with individuals' decisions to join RoSCAs. The paper employs an incentivized experiment to elicit impatience and a questionnaire to measure bank access, self-control and RoSCA participation among university employees in Cairo (Egypt). Findings indicate that access to formal banking significantly decreases the likelihood of RoSCA participation. In addition, behavioural attitudes partially (self-control but not impatience) correlates with the RoSCA participation decision. Conditional on RoSCA participation, behavioural attitudes towards self-control and impatience are significant correlates of whether an individual is a saver or a borrow in the informal institution. |
| Keywords: | RoSCAs,RoSCA rank,informal banking,impatience,self-control |
| JEL: | C91 D14 O17 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ilewps:52&r= |
| By: | Sergi Basco (Universitat de Barcelona); David López-Rodríguez (Banco de España); Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the impact of local house price booms on capital misallocation within manufacturing industries. Using the geographic variation provided by the salient Spanish housing boom (2003-2007), we show that manufacturing firms exposed to positive local house price shocks received more credit from banks and their investment grew more intensively when they had a larger proportion of collateralizable real estate assets. We exploit the geographical variation in both house prices and pre-boom urban land supply at municipality level to document that this collateral channel was exacerbated for firms located in urban land-constrained geographical areas where real estate appreciation was larger. The interaction of geographical conditions, that led to heterogeneous housing booms, with the collateral channel on investment resulted in an increasing dispersion of the capital-labor ratio within industries. A simple counterfactual calculation suggests that the misallocation generated by the collateral channel on investment could account for between one-quarter and half of the fall in TFP experienced in the Spanish manufacturing sector over the housing boom. |
| Keywords: | housing boom, misallocation, collateral channel, productivity |
| JEL: | E22 E44 O16 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2135&r= |
| By: | Michael Held |
| Abstract: | Remarks at the ISDA Benchmark Strategies Forum (delivered via videoconference). |
| Keywords: | LIBOR; SOFR; rates; transition; contracts; firms; legislation; fallbacks; loan market |
| Date: | 2021–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:93057&r= |
| By: | Eitan Sapiro-Gheiler |
| Abstract: | I describe a Bayesian persuasion problem where Receiver has a private type representing a cutoff for choosing Sender's preferred action, and Sender has maxmin preferences over all Receiver type distributions with a known mean. Sender's utility from any distribution of posterior means is a function of its concavification; this result leads Sender to linearize the prior distribution by inducing a truncated uniform distribution of posterior means. When the prior belief about the state of the world is binary, Sender's unique optimal distribution is an upper-truncated uniform with an atom at 0. When the prior belief about the state of the world is continuous and unimodal, one optimal distribution for Sender is a double-truncated uniform with an atom at the end of the lower truncation. In both cases, the shape and support of the optimal distribution differ qualitatively from the corresponding solution when Sender holds a prior belief over Receiver types. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.11536&r= |
| By: | Bianchi, Milo; Brière, Marie |
| Abstract: | We study the introduction of robo-advising on a large representa- tive sample of Employee Saving Plans. Dierently from many services that fully automate portfolio decisions, our robo-advisor proposes in- vestment and rebalancing strategies, leaving investors free to follow or ignore them. We focus on the resulting human-robot interactions and show that with the robo-service investors increase their attention to the portfolio, their investment in the plan, their equity exposure. They experience higher risk-adjusted returns, mostly by changing their re- balancing so to stay closer to the target. These eects are robust across various specications accounting for the endogeneity of the take-up de- cision, and they are stronger for investors with smaller portfolios, lower baseline returns and stock market participation. Our results suggest that automated advice can promote nancial inclusion, and they high- light how human-robot interactions can in uence investors' portfolio decisions and possibly improve nancial capability. |
| Keywords: | Robo-Advising, Human-robot Interaction, Financial; Inclusion, Portfolio Dynamics, Long-Term Investment. |
| JEL: | G11 G41 G23 D14 G51 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125979&r= |
| By: | Henz, Ursula |
| Abstract: | Gender inequality of childcare provision is regarded as one of the main barriers to women’s labour-market careers. However, there is a scarcity of quantitative studies that examine fathers’ and mothers’ combined childcare. This research focuses on father’s and mother’s timing and type of childcare for co-resident couples with a young child. Using the two most recent UK Time-Use Surveys, the study derives typologies of couples’ childcare patterns with a particular focus on gender differences. The five patterns on weekdays and three patterns on weekend days highlight gender inequalities not just in the duration of parents’ time with their children but also in its timing. Mothers are more often than fathers involved during standard working hours. The childcare patterns vary only modestly by occupational class. This might be related to the fluidity of couples’ daily childcare patterns, which change with children’s ages and across days of the working week. |
| Keywords: | childcare; couples; gender; parenting; time use |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2020–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:105796&r= |
| By: | Kelesego Mmolainyane (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | In her quest to further graduate to the high-income status, Botswana seeks to invest more in infrastructure development for both productive and social use. An efficient and effective infrastructure provision is fundamental to excellent public service delivery and access. Sadly, Botswana, like many other world economies, has a challenge of having an infrastructure financing gap. One of the innovative ways to fill this gap is through public private partnerships (PPPs) with the capital market that has excess liquidity. Infrastructure PPPs are complex and capital intensive projects that require project finance experts to advise parties involved regarding returns and risks associated with each project. Various project-financing models can be designed to suit project specifications and they cannot be over-generalised for all PPP projects. Nevertheless, given the tight fiscal space, Botswana now, more than ever, should consider issuing PPP bonds and applying user changes model to finance economic PPP infrastructure for sustainable and inclusive economic growth. |
| Keywords: | PPPs; Capital market; Project financing; Botswana |
| JEL: | E44 E47 E62 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bid:wpaper:75&r= |
| By: | Heloise Clolery (CREST-Ecole polytechnique, France) |
| Abstract: | Legislators are agents who serve two different principals: their constituents and their Party. Legislators are caught in the crossfire if their Party leaders' position contradicts the electorate's interests. Legislators care about their reputation with both principals as they are career-motivated. Making their votes public increases the incentive to use voting for reputation-building, and therefore distortion in group decision-making. This paper first shows that reputational concerns drive the decision to participate in a vote. Second, the French transparency reform of 2014 provides a quasi-natural setting for a Difference-in-Differences analysis. Greater transparency has led to less participation and more alignment to the Party line. As such, knowing that their behavior is more easily observable, legislators prefer not to take sides, and additional information benefits Party leaders more than constituents in the short term. The effect size is sufficient to switch results in 12 percent of the vote outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Voting, Transparency, Party discipline, Principal agent |
| JEL: | D72 D82 H11 |
| Date: | 2021–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Felipe Bertamini (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Miguel Carriquiry (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | The dairy chain in Uruguay is very important from economic, social and decentralization standpoints. The analysis of the main links of the chain through the study of price transmission contributes to providing greater transparency in price formation in a context of enhanced volatility and uncertainty. In this line, the price transmission relationships between the export industry and the international market and between the national industry and the dairy producers were estimated and quantified using Error Correction Vectors Models (ECVM). In the first relationship, it was estimated that an increase of 1% in the international price would translate into an increase in the export price of the industry of 1,36%. While the terms of trade between the industry and the dairy producer was 1,9%. A 1% increase in the industry sales price is transmitted by 1,9% to the producer price. For the analysis of the market functioning Threshold Cointegration (TAR) and Momentum Threshold Cointegration (MTAR) models were estimated, as there could be asymmetries between the price received by the producer and the price of the industry, identifying plausible exercises of market power by the industry. Results indicated that there exist asymmetries in the price transmission. The main company establishes a minimum value in the price of the raw material that the other companies must follow and take as a reference. As producers have an important position in the company, they can react more quickly when their price is below the long-term equilibrium. In other words, there is a positive influence on the price paid to dairy producers which may be due to the market structure in which a dominant position is held by a farmer’s cooperative. |
| Keywords: | dairy chain, price transmission, error correction vector model, asymmetries in price formation. |
| JEL: | Q11 Q13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-12-21&r= |
| By: | Caselli, Mauro; Fracasso, Andrea; Marcolin, Arianna; Scicchitano, Sergio |
| Abstract: | We analyse how the adoption of technological innovations correlates with workers' perceived levels of job insecurity, and what factors mediate such relationship, by exploiting a recent, large and dedicated survey distributed to a representative sam- ple of Italian workers. The dedicated survey allows us to look at both cognitive and affective job insecurity as well as different technological innovations actually adopted by the companies where the workers are employed. The results show that the adoption of technological innovations by companies is related to a reduction in the level of job insecurity perceived by their workers and suggest that technological innovation is perceived by active workers as a signal of firms' health and of their commitment to preserving the activity. We also find that the reassuring effect of technological innovations is differentiated across companies and workers, due to the mediating role played by a number of factors, such as specific training and signifi- cant changes in workers' usual activities. |
| Keywords: | job insecurity,technology,innovation,automation |
| JEL: | J28 O33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:938&r= |
| By: | Santiago Burone (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Luciana Méndez (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | The present study focuses on gender differences in job satisfaction as reported by highly educated professors who hold a doctorate at the public university in Uruguay. The data allows us to distinguish between fourteen areas of job satisfaction: wage, benefits, security, location, labor conditions, autonomy, promotion opportunities, intellectual challenge, responsibility, management and administrative support tasks, working environment, contribution to society, social status, infrastructure, as well as overall job satisfaction. After controlling for selection by sector of activity, an issue not commonly addressed in previous studies, our findings stress that female PhD holders report a lower satisfaction with some aspects of their job. For five of the ten areas in which gender disparities were observed, dissatisfaction can be explained by differences in observable characteristics: wages, intellectual challenge, labor conditions, infrastructure, and responsibility, as well as overall job satisfaction. For five other satisfaction domains, i.e. autonomy, promotion opportunities, administrative tasks, security, and contribution to society, we are unable to explain the lower satisfaction levels among women, although plausible explanations point to unobservable characteristics. This is surprising given the nature of the sample, i.e. doctorate holders working at the public university. |
| Keywords: | Gender gaps, Job satisfaction, Skilled workers, Uruguay |
| JEL: | J16 J20 J28 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-06-21&r= |
| By: | Eric Miller (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the current state of transport accessibility measurement. It demonstrates that all commonly used measures are special cases of a generic accessibility model that conforms to a few fundamental axioms. The paper also shows that accessibility measures are fundamentally tied to travel behaviour. These ties should be explicitly recognised and exploited to construct theoretically defensible and practically useful measures. |
| Date: | 2020–11–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2020/25-en&r= |
| By: | Cecion, Martina; Coenen, Günter; Gerke, Rafael; Le Bihan, Hervé; Motto, Roberto; Aguilar, Pablo; Ajevskis, Viktors; Giesen, Sebastian; Albertazzi, Ugo; Gilbert, Niels; Al-Haschimi, Alexander; Gomes, Sandra; Bornemann, Friederike; Goy, Gavin; Brand, Claus; Grasso, Adriana; Carboni, Giacomo; Grosse-Steffen, Christoph; Cecioni, Martina; Haavio, Markus; Cleanthous, Lena; Hammermann, Felix; Hoffmann, Mathias; Consolo, Agostino; Hölz, Jonas; Corbisiero, Giuseppe; Hurtado, Samuel; Dedola, Luca; Hürtgen, Patrick; Andreeva, Desislava; Hutchinson, John; Dobrew, Michael; Ioannidis, Michael; Dupraz, Stéphane; Kenny, Geoff; Ehrmann, Michael; Kho, Stephen; Fahr, Stephan; Kienzler, Daniel; Gautier, Erwan; Knüppel, Malte; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Kok, Christoffer; Kontulainen, Jarmo; Rannenberg, Ansgar; Kortelainen, Mika; Ristiniem, Annukka; Röttger, Joost; Lima, Ana Isabel; Saint-Guilhem, Arthur; Locarno, Alberto; Santoro, Sergio; Lojschová, Adriana; Scheer, Alexander; Maletic, Matjaz; Schmidt, Sebastian; Martin, Alberto; Schneider, Jan David; Matheron, Julien; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido; Marx, Magali; Skotida, Ifigeneia; Mazelis, Falk; Soudan, Michel; Meyler, Aidan; Stevens, Arnoud; Mönch, Emanuel; Sturm, Michael; Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Thaler, Dominik; Tosato, Andrea Giorgio; Nikolov, Kalin; Tristani, Oreste; Nuño, Galo; Valderrama, Maria Teresa; Papageorgiou, Dimitris; Weber, Henning; Pavlova, Lora; Wouters, Raf; Penalver, Adrian; Zev, Giordano; Pisani, Massimiliano |
| Abstract: | The ECB’s price stability mandate has been defined by the Treaty. But the Treaty has not spelled out what price stability precisely means. To make the mandate operational, the Governing Council has provided a quantitative definition in 1998 and a clarification in 2003. The landscape has changed notably compared to the time the strategy review was originally designed. At the time, the main concern of the Governing Council was to anchor inflation at low levels in face of the inflationary history of the previous decades. Over the last decade economic conditions have changed dramatically: the persistent low-inflation environment has created the concrete risk of de-anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations. Addressing low inflation is different from addressing high inflation. The ability of the ECB (and central banks globally) to provide the necessary accommodation to maintain price stability has been tested by the lower bound on nominal interest rates in the context of the secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate. Against this backdrop, this report analyses: the ECB’s performance as measured against its formulation of price stability; whether it is possible to identify a preferred level of steady-state inflation on the basis of optimality considerations; advantages and disadvantages of formulating the objective in terms of a focal point or a range, or having both; whether the medium-term orientation of the ECB’s policy can serve as a mechanism to cater for other considerations; how to strengthen, in the presence of the lower bound, the ECB’s leverage on private-sector expectations for inflation and the ECB’s future policy actions so that expectations can act as ‘automatic stabilisers’ and work alongside the central bank. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58 |
| Keywords: | effective lower bound, euro area, European Central Bank, monetary policy strategy, price stability |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021269&r= |
| By: | Haemers, Willem H. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Topcu, Hatice (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:753240bf-5110-4805-af1f-9c7953cca108&r= |
| By: | Storcken, Ton (RS: FSE DKE Mathematics Centre Maastricht, RS: GSBE Theme Conflict & Cooperation, QE Math. Economics & Game Theory) |
| Abstract: | Among the domains restricted by Pareto free pairs we determine those allowing for preference rules being anonymous and independent of irrelevant alternatives. Essentially such preference rules appear to be based on a priority ordered at which adjacent alternatives can only be swapped in order is all agents agree with this swap. |
| JEL: | D71 D79 |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2021012&r= |
| By: | María Julia Acosta (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Sociales. Departamento de Sociología.); Soledad Nión (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Sociales. Departamento de Sociología) |
| Abstract: | This document is focused on the process of participation of the first women economists in the development of the disciplinary field of Economics in Uruguay. It explores the reasons for making decisions about the career and entering to Faculty, as well as the characteristics and meaning of their experiences during the career, occupational insertion and subsequent professional development. In-depth interviews were conducted with a focus close to life stories. The findings show the relevance of the family of origin -particular female figures who stimulated the completion of a university career-, the availability of networks to be able to settle in the capital city when they came from the rest of the country, and the difficulties they had to overcome the care of the elderly. It also shows the existence of compatibilization mechanisms of job career with family life (couple and children). In the reconstruction of the stories, male teachers appear facilitating job insertion. The latter was linked mainly to management, implementation and development of organizations and statistical agencies, stimulated by men who were at the forefront of politics. In this sense, these women played a very relevant role as an operational and management “arm” that allowed the institutional and political development of various organizations. |
| Keywords: | economy, women, presiion, discipline |
| JEL: | A14 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-13-21&r= |
| By: | Christine Erhel (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé); Mathilde Nutarelli (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé); Julian Pelloux (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé); Thérèse Rebière (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM], CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé) |
| Abstract: | La crise sanitaire du covid-19 a fortement éprouvé l'économie mondiale et le monde du travail. La mise en place du confinement en mars 2020 et le recours massif au télétravail et au chômage partiel ont ébranlé les habitudes des travailleurs. De tels changements ne sont pas sans conséquences sur les choix des individus, qu'ils soient professionnels, éducatifs ou même géographiques. Ce document de travail exploite une enquête auprès des auditeurs et auditrices du Cnam portant sur l'impact de la crise sanitaire sur leurs choix de formation et leurs choix professionnels. 6 482 auditeurs et auditrices ont répondu à ce questionnaire, envoyé entre novembre et décembre 2020, portant sur la période entre mars et novembre de la même année, soit les deux premiers confinements. Les résultats de l'enquête montrent que le chômage partiel et les changements dans l'activité induits par la crise sanitaire ont eu un effet sur les trajectoires et les aspirations professionnelles ainsi que sur la formation des répondants. Ceux qui ont été le plus touchés par la crise (qui ont connu du chômage partiel ou un changement dans l'activité professionnelle) déclarent plus fréquemment le souhait de revoir leurs choix professionnels et de formation. Ils sont également plus enclins à engager une mobilité géographique. Au-delà des choix de vie, l'expérience du chômage partiel entre mars et novembre 2020 a un impact important sur la qualité de vie déclarée des répondants, qu'elle diminue. L'enquête permet également de confirmer que la crise sanitaire n'a pas eu d'effets trop délétères sur les transitions professionnelles en 2020. Un faible nombre de transitions de l'emploi vers le chômage ou l'inactivité sont en effet constatés sur la période étudiée. Pour autant, les travailleurs précaires sont plus touchés par les effets négatifs de la crise en termes d'emploi. Enfin, l'enquête montre que les choix des auditeurs en termes de modalités et de domaines de formation restent relativement stables tout au long de l'enquête : en 2020, l'impact de la crise sanitaire sur les choix de formation semble donc limité. |
| Keywords: | formation continue,crise sanitaire,Covid-19,trajectoires professionnelles,marché du travail,mobilité géographique,qualité de vie |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03341268&r= |
| By: | Herings, P. Jean-Jacques (RS: GSBE Theme Data-Driven Decision-Making, RS: GSBE Theme Conflict & Cooperation, Microeconomics & Public Economics); Zhou, Yu |
| Abstract: | We consider a matching with contracts model in the presence of liquidity constraints on the buyers side. Liquidity constraints can be either soft or hard. A convergent sequence of economies with increasingly stringent soft liquidity constraints is an economy with hard liquidity constraints at the limit. The limit of a corresponding convergent sequence of competitive equilibria may fail to be a competitive equilibrium in the limit economy. We establish limit results of two alternative notions of competitive equilibrium, quantity-constrained competitive equilibrium and expectational equilibrium, which do not suffer from such discontinuity problems. The implications of these limit results are discussed. |
| JEL: | C72 C78 D45 D52 |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2021013&r= |
| By: | Ying Fang (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China and Department of Statistics, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China); Ming Lin (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China and Department of Statistics, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China); Shengfang Tang (Department of Statistics, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China); Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a new procedure to test conditional independence assumption for macroeconomic policy evaluation in a time series context. The unconfoundedness assumption is transformed to a nonparametric conditional moment test using auxiliary variables which are allowed to affect potential outcomes but the dependence can be fully captured by potential outcomes and observable controls. When the policy choice is binary, a nonparametric statistic test is developed further for testing the unconfoundedness assumption conditional on policy propensity score. The proposed test statistics are shown to have the limiting normal distribution under the null hypotheses for time series data. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the finite sample performances of the proposed test statistics. Finally, the proposed test method is applied to testing the conditional unconfoundedness in a real example as considered in Angrist and Kuersteiner (2011). |
| Keywords: | Bootstrap; Macroeconomic policy evaluation; Moment test; Nonparametric estimation; Selection on observable; Treatment effect; Unconfoundedness assumption. |
| JEL: | C12 C13 C14 C23 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202118&r= |
| By: | Cappiello, Lorenzo; Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric; Maddaloni, Angela; Mayordomo, Sergio; Unger, Robert; Arts, Laura; Meme, Nicolas; Asimakopoulos, Ioannis; Migiakis, Petros; Behrens, Caterina; Moura, Alban; Corradin, Stefano; Nicoletti, Giulio; Ferrando, Annalisa; Niemelä, Juha; Giuzio, Margherita; Petersen, Annelie; Golden, Brian; Pierrard, Olivier; Guazzarotti, Giovanni; Ratnovski, Lev; Gulan, Adam; Schober-Rhomberg, Alexandra; Hertkorn, Andreas; Sigmund, Michael; Kaufmann, Christoph; Soares, Carla; Avakian, Lucía Kazarian; Stupariu, Patricia; Koskinen, Kimmo; Taboga, Marco; Sédillot, Franck; Tavares, Luis Miguel; Matilainen, Jani; Boom, Emme Van den; Mazelis, Falk; Zaghini, Andrea; McCarthy, Barra |
| Abstract: | The financing structure of the euro area economy has evolved since the global financial crisis with non-bank financial intermediation taking a more prominent role. This shift affects the transmission of monetary policy. Compared with banks, non-bank financial intermediaries are more responsive to monetary policy measures that influence longer-term interest rates, such as asset purchases. The increasing role of debt securities in the financing structure of firms also leads to a stronger transmission of long-rate shocks. At the same time, short-term policy rates remain an effective tool to steer economic outcomes in the euro area, which is still highly reliant on bank loans. Amid a low interest rate environment, the growth of market-based finance has been accompanied by increased credit, liquidity and duration risk in the non-bank sector. Interconnections in the financial system can amplify contagion and impair the smooth transmission of monetary policy in periods of market distress. The growing importance of non-bank financial intermediaries has implications for the functioning of financial market segments relevant for monetary policy transmission, in particular the money markets and the bond markets. JEL Classification: E4, E5, G2, G38 |
| Keywords: | Asset purchases, Financial markets stress, Low interest rates, Monetary policy transmission, Non-bank intermediation, Risk-taking |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021270&r= |
| By: | Massimiliano Orri (BPH - Bordeaux population health - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED) - UB - Université de Bordeaux, McGill Group for Suicide Studies - McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]); Francis Vergunst (Department of preventive and social medicine [Montréal, QC, Canada] - UdeM - Université de Montréal); Gustavo Turecki (McGill Group for Suicide Studies - McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]); Cédric Galera (BPH - Bordeaux population health - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED) - UB - Université de Bordeaux); Eric Latimer (Douglas Mental Health University Institute [Montréal] - McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]); Samantha Bouchard (Department of School/Applied Child Psychology - McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]); Pascale Domond (Department of preventive and social medicine [Montréal, QC, Canada] - UdeM - Université de Montréal); Frank Vitaro (School of Psychoeducation [Montréal] - UdeM - Université de Montréal); Yann Algan (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Richard Tremblay (Departments of Pediatrics and Psychology - UdeM - Université de Montréal); Marie-Claude Geoffroy (Department of School/Applied Child Psychology - McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], McGill Group for Suicide Studies - McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Department of Psychiatry [Montréal] - McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]); Sylvana Côté (Department of preventive and social medicine [Montréal, QC, Canada] - UdeM - Université de Montréal, BPH - Bordeaux population health - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED) - UB - Université de Bordeaux) |
| Abstract: | Background: Youth who attempt suicide are more at risk for later mental disorders and suicide. However, little is known about their long-term socioeconomic outcomes. Aims: We investigated associations between youth suicide attempts and adult economic and social outcomes. Method: Participants were drawn from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Kindergarten Children (n = 2140) and followed up from ages 6 to 37 years. Lifetime suicide attempt was assessed at 15 and 22 years. Economic (employment earnings, retirement savings, welfare support, bankruptcy) and social (romantic partnership, separation/divorce, number of children) outcomes were assessed through data linkage with government tax return records obtained from age 22 to 37 years (2002–2017). Generalised linear models were used to test the association between youth suicide attempt and outcomes adjusting for background characteristics, parental mental disorders and suicide, and youth concurrent mental disorders. Results: By age 22, 210 youths (9.8%) had attempted suicide. In fully adjusted models, youth who attempted suicide had lower annual earnings (average last 5 years, US$ −4134, 95% CI −7950 to −317), retirement savings (average last 5 years, US$ −1387, 95% CI −2982 to 209), greater risk of receiving welfare support (risk ratio (RR) = 2.05, 95% CI 1.39 to 3.04) and were less likely to be married/cohabiting (RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.93), compared with those who did not attempt suicide. Over a 40-year working career, the loss of individual earnings attributable to suicide attempts was estimated at US$98 384. Conclusions: Youth who attempt suicide are at risk of poor adult socioeconomic outcomes. Findings underscore the importance of psychosocial interventions for young people who have attempted suicide to prevent long-term social and economic disadvantage. |
| Keywords: | Suicide,longitudinal,economic outcomes,social outcomes,linked administrative data |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03347283&r= |
| By: | Nicholas Biddle |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic hit many countries at a time when their education systems were facing multiple challenges. Economic, public-health and social impacts from the pandemic have exacerbated many of these challenges. The aim of this paper is to explore the way in which the behavioural sciences can help support the policy response to the COVID-induced education crisis, and to serve as a learning experience for other future crises. The paper involves an empirical exploration of the factors associated with a range of outcomes using large nationally representative datasets, and interpreting these relationships in the context of a detailed literature review. By using data that it is generally representative of the populations of interest, and is available for many dozens of countries with different histories, languages, cultures, and socioeconomic outcomes, this paper highlights how identifying behavioural biases can direct education systems towards more effective targeted policy interventions. |
| Date: | 2021–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:254-en&r= |
| By: | Adediran, Idris; Salisu, Afees; Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E |
| Abstract: | In this study, we provide results to aid the ECOWAS in its final decision on the adoption of the single currency (the “ECO”) for the proposed regional monetary union. We demonstrate, with the fractional integration and cointegration techniques, evidences for the proposed monetary policy mechanism in the region to deal with shocks and the single currency to serve as a stabilisation tool. Hence, the results support the adoption of the ECO, with emphasis on preferably linking it with the US dollar than the Euro. |
| Keywords: | ECOWAS; Fractional Cointegration; Single Currency |
| JEL: | C51 F36 O55 |
| Date: | 2020–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109680&r= |
| By: | Tandon, Anjali |
| Abstract: | The Budget 2020-21 can be considered as transitional in nature as it seems to direct money flows to business through reforms on corporate tax. Apparently, the government is commanding a model of investment driven economic growth for long-term sustainability. However, under current crisis with regard to jobs, unemployment, demand depression and low consumption, the economy requires immediate stimulus package, which is absent in the budget. There seems to be an attempt to energise consumption through tax benefits on dis-saving. This however dis-regards the link between savings and consumption, as the former are used to finance consumer durables such as cars, electronics and real estate purchase. The importance of savings cannot be overstated in an economy where there are no provisions for universal healthcare, social security, and unemployment allowances. |
| Keywords: | Disinvestment, Subsidy, Tax Reform, Union Budget, India |
| JEL: | E6 H6 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:104427&r= |
| By: | Janet Gornick; Eva Sierminska |
| Abstract: | Wealth is an increasingly important dimension of economic well-being and is attracting rising attention in discussions of social inequality. In this paper, we compare – within and across countries – wealth outcomes, and link those to both employment-related factors and policy solutions that have the potential to improve wealth creation and retirement security for women. By constructing country-specific portraits of wealth outcomes and “retirement preparedness,” we reveal extensive cross-national variation in multiple facets of wealth. Our regression analysis finds a statistically significant and positive effect of work experience on wealth, with that effect, in general, increasing over time. The effect of work experience for single women is greater than for single men, suggesting that, among men, other, stronger forces are at work in creating wealth. The retirement preparedness outcomes indicate that single women in all three countries are in a precarious position at retirement, with much lower expected annual wealth levels than single men. The second preparedness indicator, which links expected annual wealth to income, demonstrates that men have the potential to cover larger shares of their income at retirement – and thus are more able, than their female counterparts, to maintain standards of living achieved earlier in life. Our policy discussion indicates that employment remains a viable option for ultimately bolstering women’s wealth accumulation. Many scholars, gender equality advocates, and policymakers have argued for raising women’s employment rates – for a multitude of reasons – but few, if any, have made the case for strengthening women’s employment in order to ultimately bolster women’s wealth building. We hope to help reduce the gap in the literature on policy supports for women’s employment and re-open the discussion on how women can create more wealth. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:lwswps:36&r= |
| By: | Björn Brey |
| Abstract: | Did recent technological change, in the form of automation, affect immigration policy in the United States? I argue that as automation shifted employment from routine to manual occupations at the bottom end of the skill distribution, it increased competition between natives and immigrants, consequently leading to increased support for restricting low-skill immigration. I formalise this hypothesis theoretically in a partial equilibrium model with constant elasticity of substitution in which technology leads to employment polarization, and policy makers can vote on immigration legislation. I empirically evaluate these predictions by analysing voting on low-skill immigration bills in the House of Representatives during the period 1973-2014. First, I find evidence that policy makers who represent congressional districts with a higher share of manual employment are more likely to support restricting low-skill immigration. Second, I provide empirical evidence that representatives of districts which experienced more manual-biased technological change are more likely to support restricting low-skill immigration. Finally, I provide evidence that this did not affect trade policy, which is in line with automation having increased employment in occupations exposed to low-skill immigration, but not those exposed to international trade. |
| Keywords: | political economy, voting, immigration policy, technological change |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 O30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9302&r= |
| By: | Chisom Ubabukoh (Economics School of Social Science, The University of Manchester, UK and Jindal Global Law School, O. P. Jindal Global University, India); Katsushi S. Imai (Department of Economics, The University of Manchester, UK, Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to test the “efficient-but-poor” hypothesis” by estimating the determinants of smallholders’ crop choices and whether their crop choices affect productivity and poverty using the national household panel data in Nigeria. As crop choices are endogenous in the sense that the farmers’ crop choice is also influenced by resulting revenue from the crop, we carry out stochastic frontier analyses with the Greene (2010) correction for sample selection about farmers’ crop choices and find that smallholders are generally efficient in their resource allocations. However, they are not necessarily rational in making their crop choices - defined in terms of the degree of crop’s exportability or commercialization. This is because, even when some crops are found to be more productive than others, the “less productive” crop is often chosen for production. To figure out why, a treatment effects model is employed to estimate farmers’ selection into the choice of a type of crop in the first stage and the impact of their choices on productivity and poverty outcomes in the second. The results show that farmers’ access to free inputs, non-farm income and the use of seeds from the previous growing season are important determinants of crop choice. The choice of tuber and root crops is found to improve productivity and reduce poverty, while choosing highly commercialised crops reduces poverty but does not improve productivity. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural productivity; Poverty; Crop choice; Stochastic frontier analysis; Treatment effects model; Nigeria |
| JEL: | D24 I32 N57 O13 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2021-17&r= |
| By: | Karst Guers (University of Twente) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the different approaches to measuring accessibility benefits and the limitations of their application in practice. It argues that a broader perspective on accessibility measurement and valuation beyond the current focus on time savings will improve transport appraisal. Notably the better utilisation of land use and transport interaction models will benefit transport investment appraisal. |
| Date: | 2020–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2020/22-en&r= |
| By: | Ehsan Samani; Mahdi Kohansal; Hamed Mohsenian-Rad |
| Abstract: | Convergence bidding, a.k.a., virtual bidding, has been widely adopted in wholesale electricity markets in recent years. It provides opportunities for market participants to arbitrage on the difference between the day-ahead market locational marginal prices and the real-time market locational marginal prices. Given the fact that convergence bids (CBs) have a significant impact on the operation of electricity markets, it is important to understand how market participants strategically select their CBs in real-world. We address this open problem with focus on the electricity market that is operated by the California ISO. In this regard, we use the publicly available electricity market data to learn, characterize, and evaluate different types of convergence bidding strategies that are currently used by market participants. Our analysis includes developing a data-driven reverse engineering method that we apply to three years of real-world data. Our analysis involves feature selection and density-based data clustering. It results in identifying three main clusters of CB strategies in the California ISO market. Different characteristics and the performance of each cluster of strategies are analyzed. Interestingly, we unmask a common real-world strategy that does not match any of the existing strategic convergence bidding methods in the literature. Next, we build upon the lessons learned from the existing real-world strategies to propose a new CB strategy that can significantly outperform them. Our analysis includes developing a new strategy for convergence bidding. The new strategy has three steps: net profit maximization by capturing price spikes, dynamic node labeling, and strategy selection algorithm. We show through case studies that the annual net profit for the most lucrative market participants can increase by over 40% if the proposed convergence bidding strategy is used. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09238&r= |
| By: | Nathan Ratledge; Gabriel Cadamuro; Brandon De la Cuesta; Matthieu Stigler; Marshall Burke |
| Abstract: | In many regions of the world, sparse data on key economic outcomes inhibits the development, targeting, and evaluation of public policy. We demonstrate how advancements in satellite imagery and machine learning can help ameliorate these data and inference challenges. In the context of an expansion of the electrical grid across Uganda, we show how a combination of satellite imagery and computer vision can be used to develop local-level livelihood measurements appropriate for inferring the causal impact of electricity access on livelihoods. We then show how ML-based inference techniques deliver more reliable estimates of the causal impact of electrification than traditional alternatives when applied to these data. We estimate that grid access improves village-level asset wealth in rural Uganda by 0.17 standard deviations, more than doubling the growth rate over our study period relative to untreated areas. Our results provide country-scale evidence on the impact of a key infrastructure investment, and provide a low-cost, generalizable approach to future policy evaluation in data sparse environments. |
| JEL: | O11 O18 Q01 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29237&r= |
| By: | Galina Hale; Luciana Juvenal |
| Abstract: | At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, the flight to safety was accompanied by a rapid appreciation of “safe haven” currencies. We quantify currency-induced balance sheet effects for total external positions as well as for individual asset classes using new data on the currency composition of cross-border stocks for 48 countries for the first quarter as well as for the full year 2020. We also conduct the stock-flow reconciliation of net international investment positions to measure overall valuation effects. We show that for many countries currency-induced valuation gains mitigated losses that resulted from declining asset prices in the first quarter of 2020. Moreover, for countries with excess capital out flows during this period, the impact on external balance sheet positions was mitigated by valuation gains. This is because, in contrast with past financial crises, many emerging markets did not experience negative external balance sheet effects from their currency depreciation, partly due to currency-induced valuation gains on equity positions offsetting losses on debt positions, partly due to reduced currency mismatch on their external debt positions. |
| JEL: | F32 F34 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29277&r= |
| By: | Kufenko, Vadim; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | We assess the performance of widely-used dynamic panel data estimators based on Monte Carlo simulations of a dynamic economic process. Knowing the true underlying coefficient of the autoregressive term, we show that most estimators exhibit a severe bias even in the absence of measurement errors, omitted variables, and endogeneity issues. We analyze how the bias changes with the sample size, the autoregressive coefficient, and the estimation options. Based on our insights, we recommend i) carefully choosing appropriate estimators given the underlying structure of the data and ii) scrutinizing the estimation results based on the insights of simulation studies. |
| Keywords: | Theory-Based Monte Carlo Simulation, Dynamic Panel Data Estimators, Estimator Bias, Robustness of Empirical Results |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:8285&r= |
| By: | Chisom Ubabukoh; Katsushi S. Imai |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to test the "efficient-but-poor" hypothesis by estimating the determinants of smallholders' crop choices and whether their crop choices affect productivity and poverty using the national household panel data in Nigeria. As crop choices are endogenous in the sense that the farmers' crop choice is also influenced by resulting revenue from the crop, we carry out stochastic frontier analyses with the Greene (2010) correction for sample selection about farmers' crop choices and find that smallholders are generally efficient in their resource allocations. However, they are not necessarily rational in making their crop choices - defined in terms of the degree of crop's exportability or commercialization. This is because, even when some crops are found to be more productive than others, the "less productive" crop is often chosen for production. To figure out why, a treatment effects model is employed to estimate farmers' selection into the choice of a type of crop in the first stage and the impact of their choices on productivity and poverty outcomes in the second. The results show that farmers' access to free inputs, non-farm income and the use of seeds from the previous growing season are important determinants of crop choice. The choice of tuber and root crops is found to improve productivity and reduce poverty, while choosing highly commercialised crops reduces poverty but does not improve productivity. |
| JEL: | D24 I32 N57 O13 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:2109&r= |
| By: | Maira Colacce (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Ivone Perazzo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Andrea Vigorito (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | In developed countries overweight and obesity among children has been associated with the scarce availability of resources at home. However, the evidence for the rest of the world is not conclusive. This document analyzes the evolution of overweight and obesity in young children and their association with maternal employment, the nutritional status of mothers and a wide set of socioeconomic variables for Uruguay. Also, it explores four possible explanatory channels: eating patterns, screen exposure, sleep patterns, and sedentary lifestyle. The study is carried out based on the three follow-up rounds of the first cohort of the Nutrition, Development and Health Survey, linked to reported income tax data. A multivariate analysis is performed that incorporates lagged socioeconomic variables and dynamic models. It is found that the incidence of overweight and obesity increased substantially, around 50%, as the children grew older and a high association between generations (mothers and children) is observed. Unlike studies for developed countries, there not a higher prevalence of excess weight problems in the lower-income strata, but also the overweight prevalence increases with income and educational level of mothers. Besides, there is no association with the labor insertion of mothers. The association between the possible explanatory channels and the variables of interest is in line with the results: higher income and educational level of mothers are associated with greater sedentary lifestyle, fewer hours of sleep and greater exposure to screens. This suggests that policies aimed at reducing excess nutritional problems should consider broad sectors of the population. |
| Keywords: | child overweight and obesity, body mass index, panel data, maternal employment ENDIS, Uruguay |
| JEL: | D1 I1 I3 J23 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-16-21&r= |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Nounamo, Yann; Njangang, Henri; Tadadjeu, Sosson |
| Abstract: | The study examines how financial stability modulates the effect of inclusive intermediary education on female employment in the industry for the period 2008-2018 in Sub-Saharan Africa. The empirical evidence is based on Tobit, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Quantile regressions. There are positive interactive or conditional effects between inclusive intermediary education and financial stability in the Tobit, OLS and bottom quantiles estimations. A net positive (negative) effect is apparent in the 10th quantitle (median) of female employment in the industry distribution. Implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | inclusive education; financial sustainability, gender economic inclusion |
| JEL: | E23 F21 F30 L96 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109848&r= |
| By: | Kariem Soliman (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the interest in the field of economic research in studying the effect of robots on economic outcomes, i.e., labour productivity, labour demand and wages, has increased from an individual country perspective as well as for country groups. By using a fixed effects panel modeling approach, this study of nine robot intensive European countries shows that the core characteristics of a general purpose technology (GPT) are already satisfied by industrial robots. In 2019, seven countries in the panel, i.e. Germany, Italy, France, Spain and the UK (top 5), Sweden (7th) and Austria (10th) - in terms of operational stocks - were among the top 10 of robot using European countries (excl. Turkey). Following the understanding of a GPT of Bresnahan/Trajtenberg (1995), six panel regression models were estimated and linked to the four main characteristics of a GPT. Accordingly, two new measures are proposed in this paper; the first one is named the Division of Labour (or DoL) and is constructed by building the ratio of labour productivity inside the manufacturing industry to labour productivity across all industries. The second one is the Robot Task Intensity Index (RTII), which accounts for the number of tasks that a robot was used for in different production processes across the nine European countries. A high level of fulfilled tasks implies a higher quality of robot as the number of potential tasks, which the robot can perform, is an important criterion for the quality of that robot. In accordance with the GPT literature, both measures showed the expected (in) significances. At the bottom line, all six models underlined the economic relevance of industrial robots for the nine European countries included in the analysis and give a strong indication that robots can indeed be seen as a new general purpose technology. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Robots, General Purpose Technology, Labour Productivity Growth, Robot Task Intensity Index (RTII), Fixed Effects Model, EU KLEMS |
| JEL: | D24 J24 O11 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei307&r= |
| By: | Giang Nguyen (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan); Hannah Nguyen (Department of Banking and Finance, Monash University Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia); Hung Pham (Department of Banking and Finance, Monash University Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive dataset of social network ties between U.S. counties, we document higher announcement returns for acquirers that are more socially proximate to their targets. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of geographical proximity and withstand endogeneity concerns. Consistent with the information asymmetry hypothesis, we show that the effect of social connectedness is more pronounced when targets have high information opacity, as proxied by target status, analyst coverage, bid–ask spreads, R&D, and high-tech classifications. In addition, social connectedness lowers advisory fees, reduces deal premiums, and yields better acquirer long-term performance. |
| Keywords: | Social connectedness; merger and acquisition; information asymmetry |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2116&r= |
| By: | Vadim Kufenko (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Klaus Prettner (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | We assess the performance of widely-used dynamic panel data estimators based on Monte Carlo simulations of a dynamic economic process. Knowing the true underlying coefficient of the autoregressive term, we show that most estimators exhibit a severe bias even in the absence of measurement errors, omitted variables, and endogeneity issues. We analyze how the bias changes with the sample size, the autoregressive coefficient, and the estimation options. Based on our insights, we recommend i) carefully choosing appropriate estimators given the underlying structure of the data and ii) scrutinizing the estimation results based on the insights of simulation studies. |
| Keywords: | Theory-Based Monte Carlo Simulation, Dynamic Panel Data Estimators, Estimator Bias, Robustness of Empirical Results |
| JEL: | C10 C13 C33 C52 C53 O47 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp316&r= |
| By: | A. Kerem Cosar; Banu Demir Pakel; Devaki Ghose; Nathaniel Young |
| Abstract: | What is the impact on intra-national trade and regional economic outcomes when the quality and lane-capacity of an existing paved road network is expanded significantly? We investigate this question for the case of Turkey, which undertook a large-scale public investment in roads during the 2000s. Using spatially disaggregated data on road upgrades and domestic transactions, we estimate a large positive impact of reduced travel times on trade as well as local manufacturing employment and wages. A quantitative exercise using a workhorse model of spatial equilibrium implies heterogeneous effects across locations, with aggregate real income gains reaching 2-3 percent in the long-run. Reductions in travel times increased local employment-to-population ratio but had no effect on local population. We extend the model by endogenizing the labor supply decision to capture this finding. The model-implied elasticity of employment rates to travel time reductions captures about one-third of the empirical elasticity. |
| Keywords: | trade, market access, transportation infrastructure |
| JEL: | F14 R11 R41 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9310&r= |
| By: | Breckenfelder, Johannes; Ivashina, Victoria |
| Abstract: | We explore the ties between bonds and individual dealers formed through home advantage and the persistence of previous underwriting relationships. Building on these connections, we show that the introduction of the leverage ratio for the European banks had a large impact on exposed bonds’ liquidity. Moreover, based on these ties, we show that bond mutual fund panic following the 2020 pandemic outbreak affected substantially more mutual funds with the larger exposures to dealer banks’ balance sheet constraints. JEL Classification: G12, G18, G21 |
| Keywords: | Bond liquidity, capital requirements, COVID-19, leverage ratio, market-making, mutual funds |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212589&r= |
| By: | Didier Laussel; Ngo Van Long; Joana Resende |
| Abstract: | A durable good monopolist faces a continuum of heterogeneous customers who make purchase decisions by comparing present and expected price-quality offers. The monopolist designs a sequence of price-quality menus to segment the market. We consider the Markov Perfect Equilibrium (MPE) of a game where the monopolist is unable to commit to future price-quality menus. We obtain the novel results that (a) under certain conditions, the monopolist covers the whole market in the first period (even when a static Mussa-Rosen monopolist would not cover the whole market), because this is a strategic means to convince customers that lower prices would not be offered in future periods, and that (b) this can happen only under the stage-wise Stackelberg leadership assumption (whereby consumers base their expectations on the value of the state variable at the end of the period). Conditions under which MPE necessarily involve sequentially trading are also derived. |
| Keywords: | product quality, durable good monopoly, second-degree price discrimination, Coase conjecture |
| JEL: | C73 D42 L12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9294&r= |
| By: | Rincón Orozco, Mariana |
| Abstract: | RESUMEN: La estructura de la propiedad de la tierra en Colombia es altamente concentrada, con tendencia a la latifundización y a la microfundización. Aunque se han realizado esfuerzos por implementar reformas agrarias redistributivas, se argumenta, que las élites locales formadas por terratenientes desarrollan diferentes mecanismos de extracción de renta local, desviando las inversiones sociales a otros rubros de mayor beneficio para ellos. Lo anterior lleva a preguntarse sobre los incentivos de los terratenientes por mantener el estatus quo. La presente investigación estudia la relación que existe entre las estructuras de propiedad de la tierra y la inversión social local en Colombia; por medio de estadísticas descriptivas, regresiones por mínimos cuadrados ordinarios, y datos municipales tipo panel entre 2000 a 2010, finalmente, se observa que esta relación es negativa y se compara el comportamiento de esta durante la certificación municipal concluyendo que es un buen mecanismo de control para estas desviaciones. ABSTRACT: The structure of land ownership in Colombia is highly concentrated, with a tendency towards latifundization and micro-foundation. Although efforts have been made to implement redistributive agrarian reforms, it is argued that local elites formed by landowners develop different mechanisms to extract local rents, diverting social investments to other areas of greater benefit to them. This raises a question about landowners' incentives to maintain the status quo. The present research studied the relationship between land ownership structures and local social investment in Colombia; by means of descriptive statistics, ordinary least squares regressions, and municipal panel data between 2000 and 2010, finally, one can see that this relationship is negative, and it is compared to the behavior of this relationship during municipal certification, concluding that it is a good control mechanism for these deviations. |
| Keywords: | Estructura de la propiedad, Inversión en Educación, Inversión en Salud, Élites rurales, Élites políticas |
| JEL: | H75 R1 R52 I24 R51 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:019620&r= |
| By: | Ngo, Thanh; Nguyen, Canh |
| Abstract: | This paper, by exploring the enriched information in annual Vietnamese enterprise surveys from 2010 to 2015, tries to shed light on the causal effect of the various statuses of export transitions on total factor productivity occurring across 20 manufacturing sectors and during various phases of export transition. The empirical results derived from the system GMM estimation provide evidence of causal direction from export transitions to total factor productivity, after controlling for endogenous variables and taking firm heterogeneity into account. Our results indicate that export effects on productivity are highly dependent on specific manufacturing sectors, and on type of export transition. From the perspective of trade and industrial policies, while supporting the creation of new exporters, some issues related to a high level of subsidy and tax incentives by the government to every exporting firm and export-oriented unit in every manufacturing sector seem to be questionable. |
| Keywords: | Learning-by-exporting; total factor productivity; export persistence; export fluctuation; export striving; manufacturing sectors |
| JEL: | C23 D21 F14 L60 |
| Date: | 2019–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98386&r= |
| By: | Vervest, P.H.M. |
| Abstract: | The student is the centre of our universe, our only true asset, our raison d’être. Not research. Not the government. Not societal impact. The digital world has shown the devastating impact if we get this wrong. We can only succeed if we mobilise our students and alumni and reach out to all learners. We must reverse the dependency. Why not give students the money as Educoins in our educational blockchain? Let them decide. Make them co-creators in our research. In his valedictory address, Professor Peter Vervest explores the disruptive effects of digitalisation on business and extrapolates what this will mean for university education and research. He argues in favour of digitally enabled, personalised learning paths and support for students combined with modularisation of the learning portfolio and challenge-based engagement of students in the research agenda. Education and research are two sides of the same coin. In the digital world, universities can succeed if they digitally reach out to students and alumni to engage in ongoing research and learning. This requires deep investments in digital technologies and a profound transformation of the university system and metrics. |
| Keywords: | edtech, digital university, digital Aristotle, education, university, digital transformation, leadership, change management, ecosystem, networks, business networks, business platform, metrics |
| JEL: | O33 |
| Date: | 2021–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriar:135681&r= |
| By: | Takaaki Abe (: School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1, Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan.); Satoshi Nakada (School of Management, Department of Business Economics, Tokyo University of Science, 1-11-2, Fujimi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 102-0071, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the solution concepts of cooperative games that admit a potential function. We say that a solution admits a potential function if the solution is given as the gradient vector of the potential function at the player set. Hart and Mas-Collel (1989) show that the Shapley value is the only solution that is efficient and admits the potential function for games with variable player sets. In this paper, first, we argue that if we remove efficiency, various solutions admit a potential function. Second, we characterize the class of the solutions that admit a potential function and provide their general functional form. Third, we define a potential function for games with a fixed player set and associate a potential function with the axioms that the Shapley value obeys. Finally, we discuss how the efficiency requirement induces the uniqueness of the Shapley value through a potential function. |
| Keywords: | Cooperative games; Efficiency; Potential function; Shapley value |
| JEL: | C71 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2114&r= |
| By: | Jordan J. Norris (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | A demand-side mechanism for international trade, the Home Market Effect (HME), predicts a more-than-proportional relationship between domestic expenditure and domestic production. Yet, since its inception in the 1980s by Paul Krugman, this theoretical result has only been shown to be generally valid in two-location models. I prove that the HME is maintained in an arbitrary number of locations provided the geography of trade is home-biased: the majority of domestic sales go to domestic consumers. Intuitively, without home bias, increasing domestic expenditure can actually benefit foreign production more, thus causing domestic production to rise by less, violating the more-than-proportional relationship. This result has been overlooked until now because in standard two location models all geographies are necessarily home-biased. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20210072&r= |
| By: | Dang, Canh Thien; Owens, Trudy |
| Abstract: | Recent high-profile scandals related to misuse of funding and donations have raised the demand for scrutiny over financial transparency and operational activities of non-profit organizations in developed countries. Our analysis challenges the common practice in the sector of using programme ratios and overhead costs as indicators for non-profit accountability. Using Benford's Law to measure irregularities in financial data for a large sample of public charities we estimate that 25% of the sample potentially misreport their financial information. We show theoretically and empirically that charities with a higher programme ratio (their level of spending on charitable activities), will be less likely to misreport their financial information only when their overhead costs (spending on governing activities) are also sufficiently high. Tighter monitoring becomes ineffective in increasing the sectoral transparency and accountability unless accompanied by a sufficiently high level of charitable spending. |
| Keywords: | Benford's law; Heteroskedasticity-based instruments; misinformation; non-profits; public provision of financial reports; ES/J500100/1 |
| JEL: | L31 D82 H83 H49 |
| Date: | 2020–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103943&r= |
| By: | HOCUK Seyit; KUMAR Pradeep; MULDER Joris; PRUFER Patricia |
| Abstract: | Economies of scale in data aggregation is a widely accepted concept. It refers to improved prediction accuracy when the number of observations on variables in a dataset increases. By contrast, economies of scope in data is more ambiguous. The classic economic interpretation refers to cost savings in the re-use of data for other purposes. Here, we introduce another interpretation of economies of scope, in data aggregation. It refers to improvements in prediction accuracy when the number of complementary variables in a dataset increases, not the number of observations on these variables. If economies of scope in data aggregation exist, the value of aggregated data pools of complementary variables is higher than the sum of values of the disaggregated datasets because more and better insights can be extracted from the aggregated dataset. Economies of scope in data aggregation is controversial in the economic research literature, also because there is so far little empirical evidence for their existence. The objective of this project is to fill that gap. For this purpose we create an aggregated data pool of health and health-related variables. We run machine learning models on this data pool to predict health outcomes. We gradually increase the number of independent variables in the model to estimate the magnitude of economies of scope in the aggregation of variables. Our findings confirm the existence of economies of scope in the aggregation of health and healthrelated variables in order to improve the prediction accuracy of health outcomes. The evidence is based on a nation-wide household survey and medical consumption data from the Netherlands. |
| Keywords: | Economies of scope in data aggregation, data economics, health economics |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:decwpa:202101&r= |
| By: | Bocar Ba; Patrick Bayer; Nayoung Rim; Roman Rivera; Modibo Sidibé |
| Abstract: | We develop an empirical model of the mechanism used to assign police officers to Chicago districts and examine the efficiency and equity of alternative allocations. We document that the current bidding process, which grants priority based on seniority, results in the assignment of more experienced officers to less violent and high-income neighborhoods. Our empirical model combines estimates of heterogeneous officer preferences underlying the bidding process with causal estimates of the effects of officer experience on neighborhood crime. Equalizing officer seniority across districts would reduce violent crime rate by 4.6 percent and significantly decrease inequality in crime, discretionary arrests, and officer use of force across neighborhoods. Moreover, this assignment can be achieved in a revenue-neutral way while resulting in small welfare gains for police officers, implying that it is more equitable and efficient. |
| JEL: | H4 H72 J3 K4 K42 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29243&r= |
| By: | Carlo Cambini (Department of Production and Management Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy); Lorien Sabatino (Department of Production and Management Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy); Sarah Zaccagni (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the impact of ultra-fast broadband (UBB) access on student performance. These networks are based on optical fiber, allowing significantly higher speed compared to traditional copper-line connections. Our empirical analysis leverages on a unique dataset that combines information on broadband diffusion with data on student performance in 2nd, 5th, and 8th grade for the period 2012-2017. We exploit the staggered roll-out of UBB, starting from 2015. Through an event study approach, we find evidence of endogeneity between student performance and broadband diffusion. We deal with this issue through an instrumental variable approach that exploits plausibly exogenous variation in the diffusion of the essential UBB input. Our results suggest that ultra-fast connections significantly decrease students’ performance in Mathematics and Italian language in 8th grade. Instead, we do not find any significant effect in 2nd and 5th grade. Male students from low-educated parental backgrounds are those more adversely affected, especially if they attend schools with a low IT usage. |
| Keywords: | ultra-fast broadband, internet, student performance, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | C23 C26 I21 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2114&r= |
| By: | Consolo, Agostino; Cette, Gilbert; Bergeaud, Antonin; Labhard, Vincent; Osbat, Chiara; Kosekova, Stanimira; Anyfantaki, Sofia; Basso, Gaetano; Basso, Henrique; Bobeica, Elena; Ciapanna, Emanuela; Dedola, Luca; Foroni, Claudia; Freystatter, Hanna; Gautier, Erwan; Giron, Celestino; Hartwig, Benny; Peinado, Mario Izquierdo; Jarvis, Valerie; Maqui, Eduardo; Mohr, Matthias; Morris, Richard; Motyovszki, Gergő; Nakov, Anton; Petroulakis, Filippos; Rubene, Ieva; Trezzi, Riccardo; Vivian, Lara; Weber, Henning; Wieland, Elisabeth; Neves, Pedro |
| Abstract: | The digitalisation workstream report analyses the degree of digital adoption across the euro area and EU countries and the implications of digitalisation for measurement, productivity, labour markets and inflation, as well as more recent developments during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and their implications. Analysis of these key issues and variables is aimed at improving our understanding of the implications of digitalisation for monetary policy and its transmission. The degree of digital adoption differs across the euro area/EU, implying heterogeneous impacts, with most EU economies currently lagging behind the United States and Japan. Rising digitalisation has rendered price measurement more challenging, owing to, among other things, faster changes in products and product quality, but also new ways of price setting, e.g. dynamic or customised pricing, and services that were previously payable but are now “free”. Despite the spread of digital technologies, aggregate productivity growth has decreased in most advanced economies since the 1970s. However, it is likely that without the spread of digital technologies the productivity slowdown would have been even more pronounced, and the recent acceleration in digitalisation is likely to boost future productivity gains from digitalisation. Digitalisation has spurred greater automation, with temporary labour market disruptions, albeit unevenly across sectors. The long-run employment effects of digitalisation can be benign, but its effects on wages and labour share depend on the structure of the economy and its labour market institutions. The pandemic has accelerated the use of teleworking: roughly every third job in the euro area/EU is teleworkable, although there are differences across countries. ... JEL Classification: E24, E31, E32, O33, O57 |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, inflation, labour markets, measurement, productivity |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021266&r= |
| By: | Kushantha Fernando; Vajira Manathunga |
| Abstract: | Developments in finance industry and academic research has led to innovative financial products. This paper presents an alternative approach to price American options. Our approach utilizes famous \cite{heath1992bond} ("HJM") technique to calculate American option written on an asset. Originally, HJM forward modeling approach was introduced as an alternative approach to bond pricing in fixed income market. Since then, \cite{schweizer2008term} and \cite{carmona2008infinite} extended HJM forward modeling approach to equity market by capturing dynamic nature of volatility. They modeled the term structure of volatility, which is commonly observed in the market place as opposed to constant volatility assumption under Black - Scholes framework. Using this approach, we propose an alternative value function, a stopping criteria and a stopping time. We give an example of how to price American put option using proposed methodology. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.04920&r= |
| By: | Dike Chukwudi Henry |
| Abstract: | We study properties of collective action problems bounded by minimal contributions as well as endowment and variable contributions are neighbourhood dependent. We relate nearness to non-interior agents and its implication for interior contribution. Here, we see the aspects of node distance to non-interior agents which have implications for interior agents. Endowments may be redistributed among agents. We highlight strict conditions for budget balanced transfers for which neighbourhood contributions and individual residual consumption’s are invariant. Agents may or may not be concerned about neighbourhood outcomes. We find that welfare is self correcting and neither cases are relevant to the overall welfare impact of neutral transfers. |
| Keywords: | Centrality; Contagion; Neutrality; Peer Effect |
| JEL: | C72 D85 H41 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:2107&r= |
| By: | Justeau, Stéphane; Musson, Anne; Rousselière, Damien |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 epidemic has caused the closure of French higher education institutions leading to a series of lockdowns that have affected the mental health of students. We use the POMS (Profile of Mood States) questionnaire developed by McNair et al. (1971) to identify the state of the mental health of students in a French Management School (post-high school level, aged 18+). Our results show that a significant proportion of students show altered mental states and generalized fatigue. 41% of the 1,123 respondents had a worrying mental health condition. We highlight the impact of the absence of social ties and of physical and sports activities. Finally, we suggest that techniques to reduce states such as stress and anxiety be introduced into the curriculum. |
| Keywords: | Health Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2021–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inrasl:313664&r= |
| By: | Bertrand Achou; Philippe De Donder; Franca Glenzer; Minjoon Lee; Marie-Louise Leroux |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 outbreaks at nursing homes during the recent pandemic, which received ample media coverage, may have lasting negative impacts on individuals’ perceptions regarding nursing homes. We argue that this could have sizable and persistent implications for savings and long-term care policies. We first develop a theoretical model predicting that higher nursing home aversion should induce higher savings and stronger support for policies subsidizing home care. We further document, based on a survey on Canadians in their 50s and 60s, that higher nursing home aversion is widespread: 72% of respondents are less inclined to enter a nursing home because of the pandemic. Consistent with our model, we find that the latter are much more likely to have higher intended savings for older age because of the pandemic. We also find that they are more likely to strongly support home care subsidies |
| Keywords: | Pandemic Risk, Nursing Home, Long-Term Care, Savings, Public Policy |
| JEL: | D14 H31 H51 H53 I10 I31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:irersi:7&r= |
| By: | Le-Yu Chen; Yu-Min Yen |
| Abstract: | We study estimation of the conditional tail average treatment effect (CTATE), defined as a difference between conditional tail expectations of potential outcomes. The CTATE can capture heterogeneity and deliver aggregated local information of treatment effects over different quantile levels, and is closely related to the notion of second order stochastic dominance and the Lorenz curve. These properties render it a valuable tool for policy evaluations. We consider a semiparametric treatment effect framework under endogeneity for the CTATE estimation using a newly introduced class of consistent loss functions jointly for the conditioanl tail expectation and quantile. We establish asymptotic theory of our proposed CTATE estimator and provide an efficient algorithm for its implementation. We then apply the method to the evaluation of effects from participating in programs of the Job Training Partnership Act in the US. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.08793&r= |
| By: | Andrei Goloubentsev; Dmitri Goloubentsev; Evgeny Lakshtanov |
| Abstract: | We derive a formula for the adjoint $\overline{A}$ of a square-matrix operation of the form $C=f(A)$, where $f$ is holomorphic in the neighborhood of each eigenvalue. We then apply the formula to derive closed-form expressions in particular cases of interest such as the case when we have a spectral decomposition $A=UDU^{-1}$, the spectrum cut-off $C=A_+$ and the Nearest Correlation Matrix routine. Finally, we explain how to simplify the computation of adjoints for regularized linear regression coefficients. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.04913&r= |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Hans Philipp Hofmann |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has resulted in the death of over four million people since late 2019. To reduce the human and economic costs of COVID-19, different vac-cines have been developed and distributed across countries. There has been significant cross-country variation in the vaccination of people against COVID-19. In this study, we focus on public corruption to explain the significant cause of cross-country variation in immunization progress. We suggest that countries with a higher degree of public corruption before the pandemic have been less successful in the vaccination of their population, controlling for other important determinants of immunization progress. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, pandemic, immunization, vaccination, health sector, corruption, cross-country regression |
| JEL: | D73 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9307&r= |
| By: | Tut, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of firm-level exposure to an epidemic disease on corporate cash holdings amongst U.S firms. Using a text-based measure of firm-level exposure to epidemic diseases and difference-in-difference estimation strategy, we document a positive relationship between the onset of an epidemic disease and corporate cash holdings. We find that, amongst all the recent epidemics, COVID-19 has the strongest impact on cash holdings and that this effect is mostly driven by negative sentiments around the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Cash, COVID-19, SARS, H1N1, Ebola, Zika, Epidemics, Epidemiology, Virus, Pandemic, Liquid assets, Liquidity management |
| JEL: | G00 G01 G30 G31 G32 G38 I11 |
| Date: | 2021–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109704&r= |
| By: | Simachev Yuri (RANEPA); Kuzyk Mikhail (RANEPA); Fedyunina A. (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | Foreign companies’ declining interest in the Russian economy in the 2010s was accompanied by rather cautious activities of foreign investors which had already entered the Russian market. Sluggishness of foreign companies’ activities in Russia can be substantiated not only by slowdown of economic growth rates, but also a lack of progress in liberalization of foreign direct investments regulation. To rekindle investment activities in the Russian economy again, it is necessary to revise investment policies, switch over to the single nondiscriminatory policy in respect of foreign and Russian investors and combine the policy aimed at underpinning mid-sized projects with the one aimed at supporting investments in strategically important sectors, including fast-growing industries and short-term cycle sectors. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, digital economy, corporate governance |
| JEL: | F3 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1141&r= |
| By: | John E. Stovall |
| Abstract: | A firm has a group of workers, each of whom has varying productivities over a set of tasks. After assigning workers to tasks, the firm must then decide how to distribute its output to the workers. We first consider three compensation rules and various fairness properties they may satisfy. We show that among efficient and symmetric rules: the Egalitarian rule is the only rule that is invariant to ``irrelevant'' changes in one worker's productivity; the Individual Contribution rule is the only rule that is invariant to the removal of workers and their assigned tasks; and the Shapley Value rule is the only rule that, for any two workers, equalizes the impact one worker has on the other worker's compensation. We introduce other rules and axioms, and relate each rule to each axiom. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.04583&r= |
| By: | Bertrand Achou; Philippe De Donder; Franca Glenzer; Minjoon Lee; Marie-Louise Leroux |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 outbreaks at nursing homes during the recent pandemic, which received ample media coverage, may have lasting negative impacts on individuals’ perceptions regarding nursing homes. We argue that this could have sizable and persistent implications for savings and long-term care policies. We first develop a theoretical model predicting that higher nursing home aversion should induce higher savings and stronger support for policies subsidizing home care. We further document, based on a survey on Canadians in their 50s and 60s, that higher nursing home aversion is widespread: 72% of respondents are less inclined to enter a nursing home because of the pandemic. Consistent with our model, we find that the latter are much more likely to have higher intended savings for older age because of the pandemic. We also find that they are more likely to strongly support home care subsidies. |
| Keywords: | pandemic risk, nursing home, long-term care, savings, public policy |
| JEL: | D14 H31 H51 H53 I10 I31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9295&r= |
| By: | Masood Tadi; Irina Kortchmeski |
| Abstract: | This research aims to demonstrate a dynamic cointegration-based pairs trading strategy, including an optimal look-back window framework in the cryptocurrency market, and evaluate its return and risk by applying three different scenarios. We employ the Engle-Granger methodology, the Kapetanios-Snell-Shin (KSS) test, and the Johansen test as cointegration tests in different scenarios. We calibrate the mean-reversion speed of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to obtain the half-life used for the asset selection phase and look-back window estimation. By considering the main limitations in the market microstructure, our strategy exceeds the naive buy-and-hold approach in the Bitmex exchange. Another significant finding is that we implement a numerous collection of cryptocurrency coins to formulate the model's spread, which improves the risk-adjusted profitability of the pairs trading strategy. Besides, the strategy's maximum drawdown level is reasonably low, which makes it useful to be deployed. The results also indicate that a class of coins has better potential arbitrage opportunities than others. This research has some noticeable advantages, making it stand out from similar studies in the cryptocurrency market. First is the accuracy of data in which minute-binned data create the signals in the formation period. Besides, to backtest the strategy during the trading period, we simulate the trading signals using best bid/ask quotes and market trades. We exclusively take the order execution into account when the asset size is already available at its quoted price (with one or more period gaps after signal generation). This action makes the backtesting much more realistic. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10662&r= |
| By: | Kamal, Mustafa (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Blacklow, Paul (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania) |
| Abstract: | This paper simultaneously examines the effects of age, period and birth cohort on the evolution of the Australian gender wage gap from 2001-18. It employs the proxy variable approach within the Mincerian earnings function to overcome the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) identification problem while also controlling for employment selection and individual human capital accumulation. The paper corroborates previous evidence of a widening gender wage gap with age. It also provides new evidence of period effects suppressing female wage rates compared to male rates. However, as opposed to expectations, the study finds no significant influence of birth cohort effects on the Australian gender wage gap. The results also suggest that the failure to control for period effects can lead to significant cohort effects or substantial overestimation of age or cohort effects on wages. The findings of the paper have implications for a range of studies that employ Mincer-type earnings functions in addition to policy implications. |
| Keywords: | gender, wage gap, age, period, cohort, Australia |
| JEL: | C33 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:37327&r= |
| By: | Castrillón, C. C.; Gómez, W. A.; Montoya, J. A. |
| Abstract: | El tamaño del sector informal es posiblemente una de las variables económicas más esquivas en su medición y polémicas en su interpretación y concepción. Si a lo anterior le sumamos los incentivos que poseen las unidades económicas de ocultar información y eludir la normatividad, nos encontramos con un hecho irrefutable: solo podríamos aproximarnos con cierto grado de precisión a una variable que es bastante difusa y que, en algunos casos, podría ser tratada a lo sumo como una variable latente. Este trabajo hace una revisión de las principales estrategias para aproximarse a la medición del sector informal, clasificando estas medidas en dos tipos: directas e indirectas. En el caso del primer tipo, las mediciones corresponden a agregaciones a partir de observaciones individuales, mientras que en el segundo tipo la informalidad es tratada como una estimación a partir de las relaciones entre diferentes variables macroeconómicas. De acuerdo a esta revisión, se puede concluir que existe una amplia heterogeneidad en las mediciones y que cada una de ellas solo permite comprender una fracción de lo que es la economía informal. |
| Keywords: | Economía informal; economía subterránea; mercados laborales informales; sectoresformales e informales; economía sumergida, arreglos institucionales. |
| JEL: | E26 J46 |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000561:019590&r= |
| By: | Mohit Batham; Soudeh Mirghasemi; Mohammad Arshad Rahman; Manini Ojha |
| Abstract: | This chapter presents an overview of a specific form of limited dependent variable models, namely discrete choice models, where the dependent (response or outcome) variable takes values which are discrete, inherently ordered, and characterized by an underlying continuous latent variable. Within this setting, the dependent variable may take only two discrete values (such as 0 and 1) giving rise to binary models (e.g., probit and logit models) or more than two values (say $j=1,2, \ldots, J$, where $J$ is some integer, typically small) giving rise to ordinal models (e.g., ordinal probit and ordinal logit models). In these models, the primary goal is to model the probability of responses/outcomes conditional on the covariates. We connect the outcomes of a discrete choice model to the random utility framework in economics, discuss estimation techniques, present the calculation of covariate effects and measures to assess model fitting. Some recent advances in discrete data modeling are also discussed. Following the theoretical review, we utilize the binary and ordinal models to analyze public opinion on marijuana legalization and the extent of legalization -- a socially relevant but controversial topic in the United States. We obtain several interesting results including that past use of marijuana, belief about legalization and political partisanship are important factors that shape the public opinion. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10122&r= |
| By: | Tebogo B. Seleka (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | Botswana has an extensive social protection system aimed at improving the welfare of poor and vulnerable groups. We evaluate the targeting effectiveness of 15 social transfer programs using targeting performance indicators and Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA), and the 2015/16 Botswana Multi-Topic Household Survey data. Results on targeting performance indicators reveal that, except for one, programs have low coverage (high under-coverage) and low targeting effectiveness of the poor; hence, high leakages to the non-poor. BIA results indicate that most social assistance and asset transfer programs, and a public works program are progressive and pro-poor. However, while programs aimed at building human capital through financing tertiary education are also progressive, they are not pro-poor, suggesting inequality in access to higher education. Since education is one of the pathways out of poverty, this may contribute to intergenerational transmission of poverty. Further, means-tested programs do not necessarily target the poor better than programs employing categorical and self-selected targeting mechanisms. This may partly be because eligibility criteria may not be strictly enforced during selection of beneficiaries for major means-tested programs, such as the Destitute Persons Program. Therefore, reforms are required to improve the targeting effectiveness of the programs and to minimize leakages to the non-poor. |
| Keywords: | Benefit Incidence Analysis, Targeting Effectiveness, Social Transfers, Poverty |
| JEL: | D63 I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bid:wpaper:72&r= |
| By: | Oualid Bada; Alois Kneip; Dominik Liebl; Tim Mensinger; James Gualtieri; Robin C. Sickles |
| Abstract: | While a substantial literature on structural break change point analysis exists for univariate time series, research on large panel data models has not been as extensive. In this paper, a novel method for estimating panel models with multiple structural changes is proposed. The breaks are allowed to occur at unknown points in time and may affect the multivariate slope parameters individually. Our method adapts Haar wavelets to the structure of the observed variables in order to detect the change points of the parameters consistently. We also develop methods to address endogenous regressors within our modeling framework. The asymptotic property of our estimator is established. In our application, we examine the impact of algorithmic trading on standard measures of market quality such as liquidity and volatility over a time period that covers the financial meltdown that began in 2007. We are able to detect jumps in regression slope parameters automatically without using ad-hoc subsample selection criteria. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10950&r= |
| By: | Bruno S. Frey; Anthony Gullo; Andre Briviba |
| Abstract: | Die starke Reduktion der Gemeinden im Kanton Glarus, die 2006 an der Landsgemeinde beschlossen wurde, hat nur geringfügige finanzielle Auswirkungen gebracht. Hingegen ist die Stimmbeteiligung – ein wichtiger Indikator für die Beziehung der Bevölkerung zum demokratischen politischen Prozess – gefallen, gerade auch im Vergleich zu den umliegenden Kantonen. Diese bedauerliche Entwicklung des Bezugs der Bürgerinnen und Bürger zur Schweizer Demokratie sollte unbedingt im Auge behalten werden. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2021-35&r= |
| By: | Khai, Dinh Cong; Thanh, Ngo Quang |
| Abstract: | The manufacturing industry performance in Vietnam has become a significant issue due to covid-19 and other economic factors and needs to examine frequently. Thus, the present research aims to investigate the impact of institutional pressures, such as human resource pressure, resources management pressure and operations management pressures, on the firm performance of the manufacturing industry in Vietnam. This research also examines the mediating impact of top management regulations among the relations of human resource pressure, resources management pressure, operations management pressures and firm performance of the manufacturing industry in Vietnam. The researchers followed the quantitative methods of data collection and used the questionnaires to obtain the data from respondents. A total of 610 questionnaires were sent to them, but only 380 were returned after three weeks and represented approximately 62.29 percent rate of response. This study also used the smart-PLS to examine the relations among the variables. The results indicated that human resource pressure, resources management pressure and operations management pressures positively associate with a firm performance of the manufacturing industry in Vietnam. The results also revealed that top management regulations positively mediate among the links of human resource pressure, resources management pressure, operations management pressures, and firm performance in Vietnam's manufacturing industry. This research has guided the regulators to increase their focus on managing institutional pressures that could enhance the firm performance. |
| Keywords: | institutional pressure; human resource pressure; resources management pressure; firm performance |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2021–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109673&r= |
| By: | Masedi Motswapong (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the wage differential between males and females in Botswana. It uses two methods; the quantile regression model and the unconditional quantile decomposition method. Using the quantile regression models, the paper demonstrates that returns to education are significantly different between males and females. Private returns to education for both tend to increase as we move up the education level and from lower part of the wage distribution (10th percentile) to higher parts with females getting higher returns. Furthermore, applying the unconditional quantile decomposition regression model, there is evidence that females are paid less than their male counterparts throughout the wage distribution and the gap increases as we move from lower levels to higher levels. Results show that there is no evidence of the “sticky floor” effect and there is the “glass ceiling” effect in our labour market implying that there may be few females in leadership positions. The policy implications of the study are that continuing to invest in human capital development is crucial for Botswana and there is also a need to value females’ work and attract males in highly feminised sectors. |
| Keywords: | Wage differentials; gender and wages; returns to education; Quantile regression; Unconditional quantile decomposition; Botswana |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bid:wpaper:76&r= |
| By: | Anne Case; Angus Deaton |
| Abstract: | Deaths of despair, morbidity and emotional distress continue to rise in the US. The increases are largely borne by those without a four-year college degree—the majority of American adults. For many less-educated Americans, the economy and society are no longer providing the basis for a good life. Concurrently, all-cause mortality in the US is diverging by education—falling for the college-educated and rising for those without a degree—something not seen in other rich countries. We review the rising prevalence of pain, despair, and suicide among Americans without a BA. Pain and despair created a baseline demand for opioids, but the escalation of addiction came from pharma and its political enablers. We examine “the politics of despair,” how less-educated people have abandoned and been abandoned by the Democratic Party. While healthier states once voted Republican in presidential elections, now the least-healthy states do. We review the evidence on whether or not deaths of despair have risen during the COVID pandemic. More broadly, excess mortality from COVID has not increased the ratio of all-cause mortality rates for those with and without a four-year degree, but has instead replicated the pre-existing mortality ratio. |
| JEL: | I0 J1 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29241&r= |
| By: | Zane, David; Stone, Kahler; Akram, Hammad; Alvey, Stephanie; Morehead, Bonnie; Arnold, Sandi; Haywood, Tracy |
| Abstract: | On April 17, 2013, a fire and subsequent explosion occurred at the West Fertilizer Company plant in West, Texas. This is plant is located in central Texas, in McLennan County. The explosion caused extensive damage to the homes, businesses, and schools near the plant. Because explosions of this magnitude are rare, an epidemiologic investigation was initiated to describe the fatal and nonfatal injuries caused by the explosion. The investigation found that the explosion killed 15 individuals and directly injured an additional 252 individuals. This investigation serves as a case study on how descriptive epidemiology can be used after a disaster. |
| Keywords: | NA |
| JEL: | I0 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109663&r= |
| By: | Presidente, Giorgio |
| Abstract: | What drives investment in automation technologies? This paper documents a positive relationship between labor-friendly institutions and investment in industrial robots in a sample of developing and advanced economies. Institutions explain a substantial share of cross-country variation in automation. The relationship between institutions and robots is stronger in sunk cost-intensive industries, where producers are vulnerable to holdup. The result suggests that one reason for producers to invest in automation is to thwart rent appropriation by labor. As a consequence, policies aimed at supporting workers’ welfare by increasing their bargaining power might actually reduce their employment opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Robots,Institutions,automation,holdup,unions,sunk costs,appropriability,bargaining,frictions,rents,technology adoption |
| JEL: | O32 O33 L16 J50 O57 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:242475&r= |
| By: | Polezhaeva Natalia (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | Digitalization of corporate activities in Russia and the world was of great importance, and until 2020 companies seeking to be competitive in hypercompetitive markets with rapidly changing customer needs, where possible, transferred their business to digital format in different volumes and speed. The rapid transmission of COVID-19 in 2020 gave an additional impetus to digitalize the economy in the wake of the forced social distancing and isolation. Technology companies and other companies that have been able to move their businesses online have stayed afloat, though often not without significant losses. Platform companies, thanks to their inherent speed and flexibility, have come to terms more easily than traditional corporations with the conditions of the pandemic. For example, Sber and Yandex, taking advantage of the current situation, expanded their digital ecosystems, but suffered some profit losses. Wildberries and Mail. ru on the contrary have significantly increased their incomes during the crisis. This viability of the platform business in extreme conditions makes it relevant to consider this mod in more detail. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, digital economy, corporate governance |
| JEL: | M15 M16 O31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1140&r= |
| By: | Roth, Felix; Sen, Ali |
| Abstract: | This contribution analyzes the impact of intangible capital on labor productivity growth across countries at the aggregate and sectoral levels by employing an econometric growth-accounting approach. First, our results show that intangible capital deepening accounts for around 40 percent of labor productivity growth at both the aggregate and sectoral level. Second, we find that this positive impact of intangible capital on productivity growth at both levels of aggregation is driven by investments in economic competencies, the only intangible group not covered in the national accounts. Third, our results reveal deep sectoral heterogeneities regarding investments and productivity effects of different intangible types. These findings have important implications for future EU industrial policies and are directly relevant to the EU's efforts to close its productivity gap with the US. |
| Keywords: | intangible capital,labor productivity growth,cross-country sectoral panel analysis,manufacturing,market services,EU |
| JEL: | C23 E22 L16 L60 L80 O47 O52 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:uhhhdp:10&r= |
| By: | Rodríguez, D.; Restrepo, V.; Vivas, H.; Jaramillo, C. |
| Abstract: | La accesibilidad de la población pobre a los centros de empleo y a los servicios colectivos de una ciudad es un asunto clave para la equidad espacial. Este trabajo estima y analiza las brechas de accesibilidad entre las zonas más pobres y los clústeres de empleo de Cali, usando el sistema de transporte masivo de la ciudad tipo BRT (Bus Rapid Transit). En primer lugar, se estimaron índices de acceso a las estaciones y paradas del sistema y posteriormente se evaluó la accesibilidad que este brinda para alcanzar las centralidades de empleo. Los índices locales y globales de correlación espacial, calculados en la segunda etapa, sugieren la existencia de desemparejamiento espacial en el acceso a las zonas de centralidad laboral. Este desemparejamiento espacial es más grave en los barrios con alta concentración de población afrocolombiana, bajo nivel educativo y estratificación social y económica desfavorable. Los resultados apoyan la hipótesis de que Cali tiene un fuerte patrón espacial de segregación residencial con elevada desigualdad económica y étnica que persiste y genera inequidades espaciales graves en el acceso a las oportunidades urbanas. |
| Keywords: | Desemparejamiento Espacial; Accesibilidad Territorial; Equidad Espacial; Econometría Espacial;Bus Rapid Transit. |
| JEL: | J15 J61 R00 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000561:019592&r= |
| By: | Leysan Anvarovna Davletshina; Natalia Alekseevna Sadovnikova; Alexander Valeryevich Bezrukov; Olga Guryevna Lebedinskaya |
| Abstract: | The article analyzes the population's assessment of their own health and attitude to a healthy lifestyle in the context of distribution by age groups. Of particular interest is the presence of transformations taking into account the complex epidemiological situation, the increase in the incidence of coronavirus infection in the population (the peak of the incidence came during the period of selective observation in 2020). The article assesses the closeness of the relationship between the respondents ' belonging to a particular socio-demographic group and their social well-being during the period of self-isolation, quarantine or other restrictions imposed during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. To solve this problem, the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of respondents are presented, the distribution of responses according to the survey results is estimated and the most significant factor characteristics are selected. The distributions of respondents ' responses are presented for the selected questions. To determine the closeness of the relationship between the respondents ' answers to the question and their gender or age distribution, the coefficients of mutual conjugacy and rank correlation coefficients were calculated and analyzed. The ultimate goal of the analytical component of this study is to determine the social well-being of the Russian population during the pandemic on the basis of sample survey data. As a result of the analysis of changes for the period 2019-2020, the assessment of the closeness of communication revealed the parameters that form differences (gender, wealth, territory of residence). |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05917&r= |
| By: | R\"udiger Frey; Verena K\"ock |
| Abstract: | In recent years a large literature on deep learning based methods for the numerical solution partial differential equations has emerged; results for integro-differential equations on the other hand are scarce. In this paper we study deep neural network algorithms for solving linear and semilinear parabolic partial integro-differential equations with boundary conditions in high dimension. To show the viability of our approach we discuss several case studies from insurance and finance. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.11403&r= |
| By: | Modery, Wolfgang; Valderrama, Maria Teresa; Lopez-Garcia, Paloma; Albani, Maria; Anyfantaki, Sofia; Baccianti, Claudio; Barrela, Rodrigo; Bodnár, Katalin; Bun, Maurice; De Mulder, Jan; Falck, Elisabeth; Fenz, Gerhard; Lopez, Beatriz Gonzalez; Labhard, Vincent; Le Roux, Julien; Linarello, Andrea; Meinen, Philipp; Moder, Isabella; Oja, Kaspar; Ragacs, Christian; Oke, Roehe; Schulte, Patrick; Justo, Ana Seco; Serafini, Roberta; Setzer, Ralph; Lopez, Irune Solera; Vanhala, Juuso |
| Abstract: | The aim of this report is to foster a better understanding of past trends in, and drivers of, productivity growth in the countries of the European Union (EU) and of the interplay between productivity and monetary policy. To this end, a group of experts from 15 national central banks and the European Central Bank (ECB) joined forces and pooled data and expertise for more than 18 months to produce the report. Group members drew on the extensive research already conducted on productivity growth, including within the European System of Central Banks and in the context of the review of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, and worked together to conduct new analyses.After recalling the key facts and figures, the report looks into the predominant drivers of productivity growth in firms, with a focus on technology as a key determinant of aggregate productivity dynamics. It then discusses the main factors behind resource reallocation both across incumbent firms and as a result of the entry and exit of firms. Although productivity is a real-economy phenomenon and its evolution predominantly hinges on the structural features of the economy and national policies, the report also raises the question of the extent to which, and under what circumstances, monetary policy may affect productivity. In addition, it places productivity in a broader perspective by taking into account other important structural trends that are expected to have an impact on productivity in the medium-to-long run, such as globalisation, population ageing, climate change and digitalisation. Finally, the report considers the possible impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on productivity in EU countries. ... JEL Classification: D22, D24, D61, O33, O47, O52 |
| Keywords: | drivers and policy implications, European Union, Productivity growth |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021268&r= |
| By: | Hintermann, Beat (University of Basel); Schoeman, Beaumont (University of Basel); Molloy, Joseph; Schatzmann, Thomas; Tchervenkov, Christopher; Axhausen, Kay W. |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated government measures on individual mobility choices in Switzerland. Our data is based on over 1,000 people for which we observe all trips during eight weeks before the pandemic and again for up to 6 months after its onset. We find an overall reduction of travel distances by 60 percent, followed by a gradual recovery during the subsequent reopening of the economy. Whereas driving distances have almost completely recovered, public transport remains under-used. The introduction of a requirement to wear a mask in public transport had no measurable impact on ridership. We study the heterogeneity of the individual travel response to the pandemic and find that it varies along socio-economic dimensions such as education and household size, with mobility tool ownership, and with personal values and lifestyles. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; mobility; tracking; causal forest; PPML |
| JEL: | H12 H40 I18 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2021–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2021/10&r= |
| By: | Al-Ansari, Khalid Ahmed; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk |
| Abstract: | To identify how blockchain technology affects current and future research, we carried out a bibliometric overview of the journal articles written on the blockchain. We aimed to answer some of the questions to visualize the trend of the publications regarding the advancement of blockchain utilization in fields relating to finance, economics, and social science. We used the Scopus database for the literature research, which resulted in 506 papers by 1278 authors from 79 countries. Our study showed that from 2008 till 2021, publishing about blockchain was more significant in conference papers than articles by a factor of 2. Our study also showed the importance of citation regarding published academic articles, the link to the number of publications, the authors, the universities, the affiliated organizations, and the countries of the publications. The use of authoring and citation analysis give valuable insights. On the topic of blockchain, we identified Financial Innovation as the most impactful journal on the topic, the National Natural Science Foundation of China as the leading funding sponsor on blockchain research, the USA as the highest publication production country, and Hong Kong as the highest country in the average citation per document produced. We finally identified the 20 most cited articles on the blockchain topics. Unlike other brief bibliometric studies, our study's investigation and findings could become a first stage of learning for those interested in carrying out a bibliometric study. In addition, our study could become the starting point for any future research on any blockchain projects. |
| Keywords: | blockchain, smart contracts, crypto, bitcoin, bibliometric analysis |
| JEL: | C21 C22 G11 G14 G17 |
| Date: | 2021–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109720&r= |
| By: | Johane Motsatsi (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of exchange rate volatility on non-diamond exports in Botswana using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The model used quarterly data for the period 1995-2018, to estimate both the long and short run dynamics. The estimated results show that real GDP in the non-diamond sector, GDP growth of OECD countries, transport investment and water & electricity investment have a positive impact on non-diamond exports. While the lending interest rate, inflation differentials, exchange rate volatility and misalignment impact non-diamond exports negatively. The findings indicate that the coefficients with respect to the exchange rate volatility in both models are relatively low, suggesting that it has not had harmful impacts on non-diamond exports. This reflects the emphasis given to a stable and competitive exchange rate that will attract increased foreign demand which, as a result, could lead to export diversification. However, Botswana’s export structure is still undiversified, despite efforts made to diversify the sector. To achieve the national objectives of sustainable export and economic diversification, the policy should continue encouraging a stable and competitive exchange rate. Other policies intended to boost export growth should focus on: expanding the production base of the non-diamond sector, committing more investment in the transport sector, and improving water & electricity infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Non-diamond exports; Exchange rate volatility; Botswana |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bid:wpaper:77&r= |
| By: | van der Plaat, Mark T. |
| Abstract: | Securitization is a popular concept in banking and finance. Empirical literature measures securitization with a wide range of variables, which raises the question how to measure securitization. Using a structural equation modeling approach, we examine whether proxy variables used in the literature have a common securitization factor. We find that there are two common factors for ABS-CDO securitization, and ABCP securitization. These factors correlate strongly with factors for loan sales and credit derivatives, indicating that these four factors together are used by banks to hedge credit risk. We present some recommendations to improve the measurement of securitization. |
| Keywords: | Securitization; Asset-Backed Securities; Collateralized Debt Obligations; Asset-Backed Commercial Papers; Loan Sales; Credit Derivatives; Credit Default Swaps; Latent Variables; Proxy Variables; Latent Variable Analysis; Structural Equation Modeling; Exploratory Factor Analysis; Confirmatory Factor Analysis |
| JEL: | C38 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2021–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109735&r= |
| By: | Alfred Duncan |
| Keywords: | DSGE; Reverse mode differentiation; Hamiltonian Monte Carlo; No U-Turn Sampler; Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | C11 C13 C32 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:2108&r= |
| By: | Fatouh, Mahmoud (Bank of England); Neamțu, Ioana (Bank of England); van Wijnbergen, Sweder (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds and the wealth transfers they imply conditional on conversion on the risk-taking behaviour of the issuing bank. We also test for regulatory arbitrage: do banks try to maintain risk-taking incentives by issuing CoCo bonds, when regulators reduce them through higher capitalisation ratios? While we test for, and reject sample selection bias, we show that CoCo bonds issuance has a strong positive effect on risk-taking behaviour, and so do conversion parameters that reduce dilution of existing shareholders upon conversion. Higher economic volatility amplifies the impact of CoCo bonds on risk-taking. |
| Keywords: | Contingent convertible bonds; risk-taking; bank capital structure; selection bias |
| JEL: | G01 G11 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0938&r= |
| By: | Zachary Ward |
| Abstract: | A large body of evidence finds that relative mobility in the US has declined over the past 150 years. However, long-run mobility estimates are usually based on white samples and therefore do not account for the limited opportunities available for non-white families. Moreover, historical data measure the father’s status with error, which biases estimates toward greater mobility. Using linked census data from 1850-1940, I show that accounting for race and measurement error can double estimates of intergenerational persistence. Updated estimates imply that there is greater equality of opportunity today than in the past, mostly because opportunity was never that equal. |
| JEL: | J62 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29256&r= |
| By: | Robert Calvert Jump (University of Greenwich); Paul Levine (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces unemployment hysteresis into a tractable New Keynesian three equation model using an insider-outsider labour market. We demonstrate that strict inflation targeting can lead to a unit root in the unemployment rate, but dual mandate monetary policy can stabilise the economy around its efficient employment rate. |
| JEL: | E24 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0821&r= |
| By: | A. Kerem Coşar; Banu Demir; Devaki Ghose; Nathaniel Young |
| Abstract: | What is the impact on intra-national trade and regional economic outcomes when the quality and lane-capacity of an existing paved road network is expanded significantly? We investigate this question for the case of Turkey, which undertook a large-scale public investment in roads during the 2000s. Using spatially disaggregated data on road upgrades and domestic transactions, we estimate a large positive impact of reduced travel times on trade as well as local manufacturing employment and wages. A quantitative exercise using a workhorse model of spatial equilibrium implies heterogeneous effects across locations, with aggregate real income gains reaching 2-3 percent in the long-run. Reductions in travel times increased local employment-to-population ratio but had no effect on local population. We extend the model by endogenizing the labor supply decision to capture this finding. The model-implied elasticity of employment rates to travel time reductions captures about one-third of the empirical elasticity. |
| JEL: | F14 R11 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29228&r= |
| By: | Muhammad Salar Khan |
| Abstract: | Within the national innovation system literature, empirical analyses are severely lacking for developing economies. Particularly, the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) eligible for the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) support, are rarely part of any empirical discourse on growth, development, and innovation. One major issue hindering panel analyses in LMICs, and thus them being subject to any empirical discussion, is the lack of complete data availability. This work offers a new complete panel dataset with no missing values for LMICs eligible for IDA's support. I use a standard, widely respected multiple imputation technique (specifically, Predictive Mean Matching) developed by Rubin (1987). This technique respects the structure of multivariate continuous panel data at the country level. I employ this technique to create a large dataset consisting of many variables drawn from publicly available established sources. These variables, in turn, capture six crucial country-level capacities: technological capacity, financial capacity, human capital capacity, infrastructural capacity, public policy capacity, and social capacity. Such capacities are part and parcel of the National Absorptive Capacity Systems (NACS). The dataset (MSK dataset) thus produced contains data on 47 variables for 82 LMICs between 2005 and 2019. The dataset has passed a quality and reliability check and can thus be used for comparative analyses of national absorptive capacities and development, transition, and convergence analyses among LMICs. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.05529&r= |
| By: | Michael Stanley Smith |
| Abstract: | Implicit copulas are the most common copula choice for modeling dependence in high dimensions. This broad class of copulas is introduced and surveyed, including elliptical copulas, skew $t$ copulas, factor copulas, time series copulas and regression copulas. The common auxiliary representation of implicit copulas is outlined, and how this makes them both scalable and tractable for statistical modeling. Issues such as parameter identification, extended likelihoods for discrete or mixed data, parsimony in high dimensions, and simulation from the copula model are considered. Bayesian approaches to estimate the copula parameters, and predict from an implicit copula model, are outlined. Particular attention is given to implicit copula processes constructed from time series and regression models, which is at the forefront of current research. Two econometric applications -- one from macroeconomic time series and the other from financial asset pricing -- illustrate the advantages of implicit copula models. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.04718&r= |
| By: | Fricke, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Mutual fund risk-taking via active portfolio rebalancing varies both in the cross-section and over time. In this paper, I show that the same is true for funds’ off-balance sheet risk-taking, even after controlling for on-balance sheet activities. For this purpose, I propose a novel measure of synthetic leverage, which can be estimated based on publicly available information. In the empirical application, I show that German equity funds have increased their risk-taking via synthetic leverage from mid-2015 up until early 2019. In the cross-section, I find that synthetically leveraged funds tend to underperform and display higher levels of fragility. JEL Classification: G11, G23, E44 |
| Keywords: | derivatives, leverage, mutual funds, risk-taking, securities lending |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:2021126&r= |
| By: | Joseph I. Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Elda N. Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of multinational oil companies’ (MOCs’) corporate social responsibility (CSR) on traditional practices recognized as violence against women and girls (VAWG) in Nigeria’s oil region. Results from the use of a combined propensity score matching and logit model indicate that MOCs’ CSR play a significant role in empowering women and girls with information and education to protect their human rights. This implies that CSR offers an opportunity for MOCs to help address prevalence of child early and forced marriage, female genital mutilation/cutting, sex trafficking, virginity testing, and taboos through a business case for stakeholders’ human right protection. |
| Keywords: | Corporate social responsibility, Multinational oil companies, Traditional practices, Nigeria |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/034&r= |
| By: | Tsukhlo Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The slow slowdown in demand that commenced in late 2019 forced the industrial sector to hold back output growth in early 2020. Furthermore, in January, the expectations (plans) and forecasts of enterprises maintained a stable level of optimism. And the shortage of personnel forced businessmen to make every effort to retain workers and to plan to expand hiring. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, industrial sector, industrial output |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1125&r= |
| By: | Olatunji A. Shobande (University of Aberdeen, UK); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether knowledge causes economic growth in Africa's two leading economies: Nigeria and South Africa. Using the Vector Autoregressive and Vector Error Correction approach, the findings show cointegration among the variables. The speed of convergence of the variables to their long-term mean values is relatively higher for South Africa than for Nigeria. In the short run, it is observed that knowledge unidirectionally Granger causes growth for Nigeria, whereas bidirectional causality is observed for South Africa. The higher correlation between knowledge and growth in South Africa reflects the success of greater investment in education. Nigeria must increase investment in education and modern infrastructure to converge to South Africa’s growth trajectory. Moreover, for Nigeria, (i) knowledge unidirectionally Granger cause growth, (ii) evidence of bidirectional causality flow is apparent between trade, the economic incentive and growth and (iii) health unidirectionally Granger cause knowledge. As for South Africa: (i) there is bidirectional causality between knowledge, trade openness and growth, whereas investment and economic incentive, unidirectionally Granger causes growth, (ii) investment, trade openness and health unidirectionally Granger cause knowledge and (iii) economic incentive unidirectionally Granger cause trade openness. In conclusion, this paper argues that a transformed education system can provide the knowledge base essential for promoting and sustaining economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Convergence; Growth performance; Knowledge-based economy; Nigeria; South Africa |
| JEL: | O10 O30 O38 O55 O57 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/059&r= |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Internal epidemiological restrictions and external shocks have had a significant impact on economic growth in Russia. Unfavorable changes in the global market environment increased the impact of external factors on economic dynamic: starting from 2019, the scale of exports in terms of value and physical volume decreased; the decline in the contribution of net exports to GDP dynamics was partially offset by an increase in domestic demand on the back of the outstripping growth of manufacturing industry and the segment of paid services to the population. From the outset of the spread of coronavirus infection, there was a simultaneous reduction in demand and supply in the domestic market. The situation was complicated by a drop in demand and prices on the world market of hydrocarbons, which came amid a decline in the ruble exchange rate and an increase in the level of inflation. The negative effects of the uncertainty and potential risks of the pandemic affected the nature of business structures, consumer behavior, and led to changes in the structure of government spending, the corporate sector, households, and the demand for financial resources |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fixed investment, GDP, inflation |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E60 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1126&r= |
| By: | Jeremy I. Bulow; Paul D. Klemperer |
| Abstract: | Banks’ reluctance to repair their balance sheets, combined with deposit insurance and regulatory forbearance in recognizing greater risks and losses, can lead to solvency problems that look like liquidity (bank-run) crises. Regulatory forbearance incentivizes banks to both retain risky loans and reject new good opportunities. With sufficient regulatory forbearance, partially-insured banks act exactly as if they are fully insured. Stress tests certify that uninsured creditors will be paid, not that banks are solvent, and have ambiguous effects on the efficiency of investment. |
| JEL: | G10 G21 G28 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29223&r= |
| By: | Rohan Dutta; David K Levine; Salvatore Modica |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cla:levarc:786969000000001766&r= |
| By: | Olivier Bochet; Mathieu Faure; Yan Long; Yves Zenou (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | We consider an aggregative game of competition in which agents have an imperfect knowledge about the set of agents they are in competition with. We model agent’s perceived competitors by a network in which each agent is assumed to only have information on the activities of their direct neighbors. In this framework, a natural equilibrium concept emerges, the peer-consistent equilibrium (PCE). In a PCE, each agent chooses an action level that maximizes her subjective perceived utility and the action levels of all individuals in the network must be consistent. We decompose the network into communities and completely characterize peer-consistent equilibria by identifying which sets of agents can be active in equilibrium. An agent is active if she either belongs to a strong community or if few agents are aware of her existence. We show that there is a unique stable PCE. We provide a behavioral foundation of eigenvector centrality, since, in any stable PCE, agents’ action levels are proportional to their eigenvector centrality in the network. We illustrate our results with two well-known models: Tullock contest function and Cournot competition. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20210069&r= |
| By: | Estefanía Galván (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Cecilia García-Peñalosa (Aix-Marseille Université (Francia).CNRS, EHESS, AMSE, CEPR & CESifo) |
| Abstract: | Gendered norms have major implications for women’s labor market outcomes. Notably, a recent literature finds that child-rearing norms and the prescription that the husband should be the main breadwinner lead to behavioral changes affecting women's labor supply. Motherhood reduces participation and hours of market work, while women who earn more than their husbands have been shown to react in ways that reverse that gap. In this paper we use panel data for the US to examine to what extent these two different norms interact. We start by asking whether child-rearing norms affect women who are the main breadwinner and those who are not in the same way, and then turn to how mothers and childless women react when breaking the male-as-the-breadwinner norm. Our results show that the breadwinner norm has an effect only on mothers, suggesting that the salience of gender norms may depend on the household's context. Concerning child-rearing, we find that although the labor supply of women who earn more than their husbands initially responds to motherhood less than that of secondary earners, the two groups converge after 10 years. Moreover, women in the former category exhibit a disproportionately large increases in the share of housework they perform after becoming mothers. These results indicate that norms still prevail over considerations of comparative advantage, and that the presence of children pushes women to seek to compensate breaking a norm by adhering to another one. |
| Keywords: | gender identity norms, female labor supply, motherhood, relative income |
| JEL: | D10 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-15-21&r= |
| By: | Huria, Sugandha |
| Abstract: | Empirical estimates from various studies on impact assessment of free trade agreements show that there are limited economic gains from concluding such arrangements. It has been argued by trade negotiators of many countries that while some partners gain more from an agreement, others gain less or, even suffer from a rise in their current account deficits and overall economic losses. Even the Indian scenario is not an outlier in such a case. This question about unequal gains from an FTA has raised various policy concerns. We attempt to provide an answer to this debate by incorporating the role of the type of commodities that countries trade with each other. In an imperfectly competitive setup with three countries and two types of commodities viz. a final good and an intermediate input, our findings reveal that bilateral free trade in final goods is more welfare-enhancing for the member countries vis-à-vis bilateral free trade in intermediates. However, the former possibility is feasible only for a very small range of parametric values given the pre-requisites for ensuring the formation of an effective FTA. More specifically, we find that a horizontal FTA covering final goods becomes feasible only when the degree of market size asymmetry between the two partners is very less. On the contrary, when we emphasise on the role of vertical trade, i.e., where one of the FTA members exports intermediate inputs to the other, and imports the final good in return, we find that FTA is feasible only when the larger partner is an exporter of final goods and an importer of intermediate inputs, vis-à-vis the smaller partner. In such a case, the larger partner accrues higher gains from such a bilateral engagement. While capturing the role of tradable intermediates, we also show that in the presence of well-connected GVCs, RTAs actually become a less attractive option for enhancing trade and welfare of an economy. |
| Keywords: | Free Trade Agreements, Global Value Chains, Vertical Industry Structure |
| JEL: | F12 F15 |
| Date: | 2020–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109815&r= |
| By: | Utku Bora Geyikci; Suheyla Ozyildirim |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) for six emerging market economies using daily data following the global financial crisis. After documenting large and persistent discrepancies between January 2010 and July 2018, we show the significant role of local factors in explaining sustained deviations from CIP. Specifically, we present evidence that the main drivers of explaining CIP deviations are cost of illiquidity and interest differentials. Our findings suggest that the impact of credit risk on CIP deviations in emerging market economies may take two forms. In low-carry currencies, the well-known mechanism for credit risk operates so that the increase in credit risk exacerbates CIP deviations. Conversely, in high-carry currencies, the high usage of FX swaps makes swap rates react more than domestic rates, which causes CIP to decrease. Finally, global factors play no prominent role in predicting CIP deviations. |
| Keywords: | Covered interest parity, FX swap, Emerging markets, Financial crisis |
| JEL: | G15 F31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2126&r= |
| By: | Nishant Yonzan; Branko Milanovic; Salvatore Morelli; Janet Gornick |
| Abstract: | The paper uses the flexibility of household survey data to align their income categories and recipient units with the income categories and units found in data produced by tax authorities. Our analyses, based on a standardized definition of fiscal income, allow us to locate, for top-income groups, the sources of discrepancy. We find, using the cases of the United States, Germany, and France, that the results from survey-based and tax data correspond extremely well (in terms of total income, mean income, composition of income, and income shares) above the 90th percentile and up to the top 1 percent of the distribution. Information about income composition, available in the US, allows us to investigate the determinants of this gap in the US. About three-fourths of the tax/survey gap is due to differences in non-labor incomes, especially self-employment (business) income. The gap itself may be due to tax-induced re-classification of income from corporate to personal or/and to lower ability of surveys to capture top 1 percent incomes. |
| JEL: | D31 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:805&r= |
| By: | Andriopoulou, Eirini; Karakitsios, Alexandros |
| Abstract: | During the last decade, unemployment in Greece climbed up to 28%, almost quadrupling due to the economic crisis that hit Greece. In the present paper, we examine the determinants of the unemployment dynamics and the impact of the minimum wage on the probability of making a transition into and out of unemployment. We use micro-level data from the Greek Labour Force Survey for the period 2004-2019 and control for several demographic factors, macro-economic conditions, regional differences and changes in statutory minimum wage. The results suggest that individual-level characteristics play an important role in making a transition into or out of unemployment. Changes in the real minimum wage are estimated to have either a statistically insignificant or a very small impact on unemployment entries and exits. Further, the impact of economy's growth rate follows the theoretical predictions as higher growth rates increase unemployment outflows and decrease inflows, while the regional differences are also important. Our findings persist even when we split the sample in three periods (pre-crisis, crisis, recovery). The results have important policy implications. Given that the disemployment effect of the minimum wage seems to be very limited in the Greek labour market, while the socioeconomic characteristics and regional characteristics play an important role, improving the skills of individuals through the educational system and reskilling or up-skilling programs, while targeting specific regions, may facilitate labour market mobility. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage,unemployment transitions,labour mobility,Greek crisis |
| JEL: | J08 J21 J38 I38 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:937&r= |
| By: | Caselli, Francesco; Koren, Miklos; Lisicky, Milan; Tenreyro, Silvana |
| Abstract: | A widely held view is that openness to international trade leads to higher income volatility, as trade increases specialization and hence exposure to sector-specific shocks. Contrary to this common wisdom, we argue that when country-wide shocks are important, openness to international trade can lower income volatility by reducing exposure to domestic shocks and allowing countries to diversify the sources of demand and supply across countries. Using a quantitative model of trade, we assess the importance of the two mechanisms (sectoral specialization and cross-country diversification) and show that in recent decades international trade has reduced economic volatility for most countries. |
| Keywords: | 313164; 240852 |
| JEL: | E32 F41 |
| Date: | 2020–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101615&r= |
| By: | Claudia Cerrone; Francesco Feri; Philip R. Neary |
| Abstract: | The outcome of a foregone alternative is not always learnt. We incorporate this observation into a model of regret, supposing that the ex-post information available depends on choice. We show that a more informative ex-post environment is never desirable for a regret averse individual. We then suppose that there are multiple regret averse individuals where the ex-post information available depends on own choice and the choices of others. This implies that what appears to be a series of isolated decision problems is in fact a behavioural game with multiple equilibria. We experimentally test the model and find support for our theory. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10968&r= |
| By: | Klaas Lenaerts; Simone Tagliapietra; Guntram B. Wolff |
| Abstract: | Higher levels of economic activity tend to go hand-in-hand with additional energy use and consumption of natural resources. As fossil fuels still account for 80 percent of the global energy mix, energy consumption remains closely related to greenhouse gas emissions and hence to climate forcing. This paper explores whether decarbonisation and economic growth are compatible or whether the world economy needs to grow less to be able to reduce greenhouse... |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:44787&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Communication market structures and their effect on delivering efficient and inclusive connectivity is of key interest to policy makers and regulators. This report discusses emerging competition trends in OECD broadband markets that are shaping market structures, covering both fixed and mobile networks. The increasing complementarity of fixed and wireless networks and the convergence of previously separate markets have led to new forms of communication market competition. While convergence has been acting as a driver for market consolidation, there is also increased scrutiny in merger review. Some OECD countries are discussing options to keep mobile communication markets open to new entrants in the context of merger reviews, while others have experienced a recent wave of entry. The report explores the role of horizontal and vertical mergers in communication markets, presents examples of entry in mobile communication markets, and discusses some of effects of entry and consolidation in OECD markets. |
| Date: | 2021–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:316-en&r= |
| By: | Francesco D’Acunto; Andreas Fuster; Michael Weber |
| Abstract: | Increasing the diversity of policy committees has taken center stage worldwide, but whether and why diverse committees are more effective is still unclear. In a randomized control trial that varies the salience of female and minority representation on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee, the FOMC, we test whether diversity affects how Fed information influences consumers’ subjective beliefs. Women and Black respondents form unemployment expectations more in line with FOMC forecasts and trust the Fed more after this intervention. Women are also more likely to acquire Fed-related information when associated with a female official. White men, who are overrepresented on the FOMC, do not react negatively. Heterogeneous taste for diversity can explain these patterns better than homophily. Our results suggest more diverse policy committees are better able to reach underrepresented groups without inducing negative reactions by others, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of policy communication and public trust in the institution. |
| JEL: | D84 E52 E58 E70 G53 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29275&r= |
| By: | Carlos Bianchi (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Fernando Isabella (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Santiago Picasso (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | In this article we develop a balance of payments constrained growth (BPCG) model, adapted to capture the specific conditions of small commodity-dependent countries. The argument is presented in light of historical experience, and especially, of the available evidence on the effects of the last commodities super cycle. We start from the classic Thirlwall (1979) model, but we modified it in key aspects. We assume exogenous export prices, infinite price elasticity of export demand, and supply of commodities that react to prices with positive, but not infinite, elasticity. This model contributes to analyze two aspects that are invisible in the BPCG models. These are: i) to identify and analytically explain the central role of export prices and ii) the relevance of price competitiveness (through exchange rate) in the growth dynamics of the countries. It is shown that a trajectory of real devaluation (exchange rate evolves above domestic costs) and an improvement in the terms of trade, in a context of increasing international prices, increase the equilibrium growth rate without ambiguity. However, it is concluded that export prices are more relevant than the terms of trade in determining the growth of these countries. |
| Keywords: | growth, external constraint, commodities, export prices. |
| JEL: | O11 O41 O40 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-07-21&r= |
| By: | Olivier Bochet; Jacopo Magnani (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | In vertically differentiated matching markets with private information, agents face an acceptance curse: being accepted as a partner conveys bad news. We experimentally investigate whether individuals anticipate the acceptance curse in such an environment. We test the effect of an exogenous change in reservation values which, by making some types more selective, induces significant changes in the posterior distribution of match qualities. Consistent with limited strategic sophistication, subjects do not respond to this manipulation. Through additional investigation and structural estimations, we suggest a mechanism explaining the lack of subjects’ response: out-of-equilibrium beliefs are quantitatively more important than limited conditional thinking. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20210071&r= |
| By: | Taletha M. Derrington; Alison Huang; Joseph P. Ferrie |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects WWII Lanham Act Nursery Schools (LNS) on high school and young adult educational and labor outcomes of participants in the landmark Project Talent (PT) study. All PT places that received funding for LNS schools and all PT places that did not were identified by examining program records and contemporaneous newspaper accounts. Focusing on students who in 1960 attended high school in the same city or town where they were born, we estimate intent to treat effects of access to LNS preschool on high school academic and social emotional outcomes and on educational attainment and labor outcomes at five and eleven years following high school graduation. Preschool boosts high school academic outcomes for men and (in at least one specification) income 11 years after high school graduation. For women, preschool exposure had a negative effect on some social emotional outcomes in high school. We found no or inconsistent effects for other outcomes. The Lanham experience demonstrates that even with the less sophisticated understanding of child development of the early 1940s, the first universal, government-funded preschool program had positive impacts on boys’ outcomes at least through high school. Given today’s expanded understanding of child development and focus on the quality of early care and education programming, these findings provide some optimism as communities, states, and the federal government contemplate expanding funding for today’s early learning environments. |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J13 N32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29271&r= |
| By: | Mahamady Ouedraogo (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | À la conférence sur l'arbre et la forêt tenue à Paris du 5 au 7 février 1986, Thomas Sankara (36 ans), Président du Burkina Faso (1983-1987), proposait qu'un pour cent des recherches spatiales soit dédié à la lutte contre la dégradation des forêts 3. Reçu le lendemain, en interview, à la télévision LCP le journaliste lui demande d'où vient ce chiffre 1% ; s'il était suffisant et comment il a été évalué. Sankara répondit : « par-delà le chiffre lui-même ce que nous voulons c'est imposer la prise de conscience devant un problème, un fléau aussi grave que la désertification … les perturbations climatique et écologique. Qui peut démontrer que ces engins que l'on envoie dans l'espace ne perturbent pas l'équilibre écologique (…) ». Cet article traite des questions climatiques dans le discours et le projet politique du Président Thomas Sankara. Trois perspectives d'analyse sont envisagées. Il s'agit, en premier lieu, de documenter cette prise de conscience, précoce, des enjeux climatiques dans le programme politique de Sankara. En deuxième temps, l'article met en évidence les initiatives endogènes d'adaptation et de lutte contre le changement climatique au Burkina Faso sous la période révolutionnaire. En troisième lieu, il s'agira de montrer comment l'expérience révolutionnaire Burkinabé peut nourrir les politiques publiques de lutte contre les dérèglements climatiques aujourd'hui mais aussi sustenter un débat public et une prise de conscience politique sur la lutte, l'adaptation et la résilience aux effets des dérèglements climatiques. |
| Keywords: | Sankara,Climat |
| Date: | 2020–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03344143&r= |
| By: | Bertrand Achou; Hippolyte d'Albis; Eleni Iliopulo |
| Abstract: | In this work we introduce rental markets in a general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints and infinitely lived agents. We estimate our model using standard Bayesian methods and match US data on recent decades. We highlight a crucial relationship that strongly links interest rates, house prices, and rents. It represents agents’ arbitrage when choosing their degree of participation in the housing market (i.e., their real estate holdings). This framework is particularly well suited for explaining recent trends in housing markets. It also allows us to parsimoniously track the unequal impact of shocks on agents’ decisions and welfare, depending on their housing status. |
| Keywords: | Housing, Rental Markets, Collateral Constraints, Financial Frictions |
| JEL: | E3 G1 C1 I3 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:irersi:6&r= |
| By: | Jibang Wu; Ashwinkumar Badanidiyuru; Haifeng Xu |
| Abstract: | Classic mechanism design often assumes that a bidder's action is restricted to report a type or a signal, possibly untruthfully. In today's digital economy, bidders are holding increasing amount of private information about the auctioned items. And due to legal or ethical concerns, they would demand to reveal partial but truthful information, as opposed to report untrue signal or misinformation. To accommodate such bidder behaviors in auction design, we propose and study a novel mechanism design setup where each bidder holds two kinds of information: (1) private \emph{value type}, which can be misreported; (2) private \emph{information variable}, which the bidder may want to conceal or partially reveal, but importantly, \emph{not} to misreport. We show that in this new setup, it is still possible to design mechanisms that are both \emph{Incentive and Information Compatible} (IIC). We develop two different black-box transformations, which convert any mechanism $\mathcal{M}$ for classic bidders to a mechanism $\mathcal{M}'$ for strategically reticent bidders, based on either outcome of expectation or expectation of outcome, respectively. We identify properties of the original mechanism $\mathcal{M}$ under which the transformation leads to IIC mechanisms $\mathcal{M}'$. Interestingly, as corollaries of these results, we show that running VCG with expected bidder values maximizes welfare whereas the mechanism using expected outcome of Myerson's auction maximizes revenue. Finally, we study how regulation on the auctioneer's usage of information may lead to more robust mechanisms. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.04888&r= |
| By: | Tasso Adamopoulos; Loren Brandt; Jessica Leight; Diego Restuccia |
| Abstract: | We use household-level panel data from China and a quantitative framework to document the extent and consequences of factor misallocation in agriculture. We find that there are substantial within-village frictions in both the land and capital markets linked to land institutions in rural China that disproportionately constrain the more productive farmers. These frictions reduce aggregate agricultural productivity by affecting two key margins: (1) the allocation of resources across farmers (misallocation) and (2) the allocation of workers across sectors, in particular the type of farmers who operate in agriculture (selection). Selection substantially amplifies the productivity effect of distortionary policies by affecting occupational choices that worsen average ability in agriculture. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, misallocation, selection, productivity, China |
| JEL: | O11 O14 O4 E02 Q1 |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-707&r= |
| By: | Maria Sole Pagliari |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at assessing the macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) that the ECB has put in place in the euro area after the 2007 financial crisis. With this purpose, we first document how the relative importance of the main transmission channels of such measures has changed over time, with the portfolio rebalancing being generally more impactful than the signaling channel after the “Whatever it takes” speech in July 2012. However, we also provide evidence of a great degree of heterogeneity across core and peripheral economies, as well as over time. We then adopt a time-varying SVAR with stochastic volatility to account for such heterogeneity, by identifying UMP shocks via “dynamic” sign restrictions. By means of counterfactual experiments, we provide evidence of how a different stance on the part of the ECB would have led to a significantly different economic performance of euro area economies. For instance, if the ECB had not put in place the measures adopted between 2014 and 2017, annual output growth would have been, on average, 0.67 percentage points lower in peripheral countries. |
| Keywords: | : Time-varying Bayesian SVAR, Dynamic Restrictions, Unconventional Monetary policy, Eurozone |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:829&r= |
| By: | Julieta Peveri (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Marc Sangnier (University of Namur & Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies differences across genders in the re-contesting decisions of politicians following electoral wins or defeats. Using close races in mixed-gender French local elections, we show that women are less likely to persist in competition when they lose compared to male runners-up, but are equally or more prone than male winners to re-contest when they win. Differences in observable characteristics or in the expected electoral returns of running again cannot fully account for these gender gaps in persistence. In contrast, the heterogeneity of the results across political ideology, age, experience and occupation suggests that behavioural explanations are at play. Additionally, we provide evidence that a woman's victory encourages former female challengers to re-contest but does not trigger the entry of new female candidates. |
| Keywords: | gender, competition, persistence, candidates, self-selection, elections |
| JEL: | D72 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2139&r= |
| By: | Najoua Hammouch (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah); Mehdi Nouri (Université Hassan 1er [Settat]); Laurent Cappelletti (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); Abdellatif Marghich (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03334044&r= |
| By: | Nik Alexandrov; Dave Cliff; Charlie Figuero |
| Abstract: | We report on a series of experiments in which we study the coevolutionary "arms-race" dynamics among groups of agents that engage in adaptive automated trading in an accurate model of contemporary financial markets. At any one time, every trader in the market is trying to make as much profit as possible given the current distribution of different other trading strategies that it finds itself pitched against in the market; but the distribution of trading strategies and their observable behaviors is constantly changing, and changes in any one trader are driven to some extent by the changes in all the others. Prior studies of coevolutionary dynamics in markets have concentrated on systems where traders can choose one of a small number of fixed pure strategies, and can change their choice occasionally, thereby giving a market with a discrete phase-space, made up of a finite set of possible system states. Here we present first results from two independent sets of experiments, where we use minimal-intelligence trading-agents but in which the space of possible strategies is continuous and hence infinite. Our work reveals that by taking only a small step in the direction of increased realism we move immediately into high-dimensional phase-spaces, which then present difficulties in visualising and understanding the coevolutionary dynamics unfolding within the system. We conclude that further research is required to establish better analytic tools for monitoring activity and progress in co-adapting markets. We have released relevant Python code as open-source on GitHub, to enable others to continue this work. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10429&r= |
| By: | Khalid Ahmed Al-Ansari (HBKU - Hamad Bin Khalifa University); Ahmet Aysan (HBKU - Hamad Bin Khalifa University) |
| Abstract: | To identify how blockchain technology affects current and future research, we carried out a bibliometric overview of the journal articles written on the blockchain. We aimed to answer some of the questions to visualize the trend of the publications regarding the advancement of blockchain utilization in fields relating to finance, economics, and social science. We used the Scopus database for the literature research, which resulted in 506 papers by 1278 authors from 79 countries. Our study showed that from 2008 till 2021, publishing about blockchain was more significant in conference papers than articles by a factor of 2. Our study also showed the importance of citation regarding published academic articles, the link to the number of publications, the authors, the universities, the affiliated organizations, and the countries of the publications. The use of authoring and citation analysis give valuable insights. On the topic of blockchain, we identified Financial Innovation as the most impactful journal on the topic, the National Natural Science Foundation of China as the leading funding sponsor on blockchain research, the USA as the highest publication production country, and Hong Kong as the highest country in the average citation per document produced. We finally identified the 20 most cited articles on the blockchain topics. Unlike other brief bibliometric studies, our study's investigation and findings could become a first stage of learning for those interested in carrying out a bibliometric study. In addition, our study could become the starting point for any future research on any blockchain projects. |
| Keywords: | blockchain,smart contracts,crypto,bitcoin,Bibliometric analysis |
| Date: | 2021–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03343048&r= |
| By: | Hans Degryse (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Rudy de Winne; Carole Gresse (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Richard Payne |
| Abstract: | We measure the extent to which consolidated liquidity in modern fragmented equity markets overstates true liquidity due to a phenomenon that we call Ghost Liquidity (GL). GL exists when traders place duplicate limit orders on competing venues, intending for only one of the orders to execute, and when one does execute, duplicates are cancelled. Employing data from 2013 for 91 stocks trading on their primary exchanges and three alternative platforms where order submitters are identified consistently across venues, we find that simply measured consolidated liquidity exceeds true consolidated liquidity due to the existence of GL. On average, for every 100 shares passively traded by a multi-market liquidity supplier on a given venue, around 19 shares are immediately cancelled by the same liquidity supplier on a different venue. Yet the average weight of GL in total consolidated depth, at around 4%, does not outweigh the liquidity benefits of fragmentation. GL is most pronounced for traders with a speed advantage such as high-frequency traders, in stocks exhibiting greater market fragmentation, in stocks where the tick is more likely to be binding, and on non-primary exchanges. Furthermore, GL decreases when the fraction of traders using smart order routing is large. Finally, we show that an increase in GL leads to the execution costs of slow and algo traders increasing, while those of HFTs are unaffected. |
| Keywords: | algorithmic trading,fragmentation,stocks trading |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03338259&r= |
| By: | Italo Colantone; Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano; Piero Stanig |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on the globalization backlash, seen as the political shift of voters and parties in a protectionist and isolationist direction, with substantive implications on governments’ leaning and enacted policies. Using newly assembled data for 23 advanced democracies, we document a protectionist and isolationist shift in electorates, legislatures, and executives from the mid-1990s onwards. This is associated with a noticeable protectionist shift in trade policy –although with some notable nuances– especially since the financial crisis of 2008. We discuss the economics of the backlash. From a theoretical perspective, we highlight how the backlash may arise within standard trade models when taking into account the ‘social footprint’ of globalization. Then, we review the empirical literature on the drivers of the backlash. Two main messages emerge from our analysis: (1) globalization is a significant driver of the backlash, by means of the distributional consequences entailed by rising trade exposure; yet (2) the backlash is only partly determined by trade. Technological change, crisis-driven fiscal austerity, immigration, and cultural concerns are found to play an important role in creating politically consequential cleavages. Looking ahead, we discuss possible future developments, with specific focus on the issue of social mobility. |
| Keywords: | globalization, social footprint, backlash |
| JEL: | F10 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9289&r= |
| By: | Simon Gilchrist; Bin Wei; Vivian Z Yue; Egon Zakrajšek |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the efficacy of the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), a program designed to stabilize the U.S. corporate bond market during the Covid-19 pandemic. The Fed announced the SMCCF on March 23, 2020, and expanded the program on April 9. Our results show that the two announcements significantly lowered credit and bid-ask spreads, the former almost entirely through a reduction in credit risk premia. The announcements had a differential effect on the program-eligible bonds relative to their ineligible counterparts, but this difference is not due to program eligibility per se, according to our results. Rather, the announcements restored the "normal" upward-sloping profile of the term structure of credit spreads by substantially reducing spreads at the short end of the maturity spectrum relative to spreads at the long end. Using an IV approach, we also document important announcement-induced spillovers across all bonds outstanding for issuers whose bonds were likely to be purchased by the facility. Finally, we show that the Fed's actual purchases had negligible effects on credit and bid ask spreads. Our results highlight the extraordinary power of modern central banks: when markets have trust in the central bank's ability to deliver on its promise, as exemplified by the iconic "whatever it takes" remark by Mario Draghi, the central bank needs to do less (if anything) to deliver on its promise. |
| Keywords: | covid-19, credit market support facilities, diff-in-diff, event study, purchase effects |
| JEL: | E44 E58 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:963&r= |
| By: | Svetlana Boyarchenko; Sergei Levendorski\u{i}; J. Lars Kirkby; Zhenyu Cui |
| Abstract: | We clarify the relations among different Fourier-based approaches to option pricing, and improve the B-spline probability density projection method using the sinh-acceleration technique. This allows us to efficiently separate the control of different sources of errors better than the FFT-based realization allows; in many cases, the CPU time decreases as well. We demonstrate the improvement of the B-spline projection method through several numerical experiments in option pricing, including European and barrier options, where the SINH acceleration technique proves to be robust and accurate. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.08738&r= |
| By: | Zachary Parolin; Janet Gornick |
| Abstract: | Despite rising interest in income inequality, scholars remain divided over the mechanisms underlying inclusive income growth and how these mechanisms vary across countries. This study introduces the concept of national growth profiles, the additive contribution of changes in taxes, transfers, composition, and other factors including market institutions to changes across a country’s income distribution. We present a decomposition framework to measure national growth profiles for eight high-income countries from the 1980–2010s. Our findings adjudicate competing sociological and economic perspectives on rising inequality. First, we find that policy-driven changes in taxes and transfers are the dominant drivers of inclusive growth at the tails of the income distributions. Second, rising educational attainment contributes most to income growth across the distribution, but consistently contributes to less-inclusive growth. When changes in education are considered, changes in assortative mating and single parenthood have little consequence for changes in inequality. Third, changes to other factors including market institutions increased inequality in countries such as the U.S., but less so in France and Germany. Had the U.S. matched the changes to Dutch tax policy, Danish transfer policy, or other factors of most other countries, it could have achieved more inclusive income growth than observed. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:802&r= |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | In its fiscal year 2022 shipbuilding plan, the Navy envisions a future fleet that is different—both in total fleet size and composition—from today’s fleet. The plan describes a future Navy composed of 398 to 512 manned ships and unmanned vessels (up from 296 manned ships today), but it does not detail the planned inventory, purchases, deliveries, and retirements of the ships in its fleet. |
| JEL: | H56 H60 H68 N62 N72 |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:57414&r= |
| By: | Grégory Levieuge; Jean-Guillaume Sahuc |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence suggests that bank lending rates are downward rigid: banks tend to adjust their rates more slowly and less completely to short-term market rates decreases than to increases. We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of this downward interest rate rigidity by introducing asymmetric bank lending rate adjustment costs in a macrofinance dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Calibrating the model to the euro area economy, we find that the difference in the initial response of GDP to positive and negative economic shocks of similar amplitude can reach up to 25%. This means that a central bank would have to cut its policy rate much more to obtain a symmetric medium-run impact on GDP. We also show that downward interest rate rigidity is stronger when policy rates are stuck at their effective lower bound, further disrupting monetary policy transmission. These findings imply that neglecting asymmetry in retail interest rate adjustments may yield misguided monetary policy decisions. |
| Keywords: | Downward Interest Rate Rigidity, Asymmetric Adjustment Costs, Banking Sector, DSGE Model, Euro Area |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E5 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:828&r= |
| By: | Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | We investigated the long-term effects of birthplace favoritism by top-ranking politicians on the quality of education in Vietnam. We used over 1 million test scores from the 2009 and 2014 Vietnamese national university entrance examinations. We examined both the different timing of political terms and the total years of birthplace favoritism. Using the school fixed effects, we found that birthplace favoritism did not have any significant impacts, regardless of the timing and duration of such favoritism. The results also suggest that national entrance examinations were unaffected by birthplace favoritism up to 2014. |
| Keywords: | Favoritism; Test scores; Education; Regional favoritism; Vietnam |
| JEL: | H75 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109718&r= |
| By: | Cuciniello, Vincenzo; di Iasio, Nicola |
| Abstract: | Using loan-level data covering almost all loans to households and businesses from banks in Italy over the past 20 years, we offer new empirical evidence that credit declines during a recession primarily because of the reduction in the net creation of borrowers. We then build on a flow approach to decompose the net creation of borrowers into gross flows across three statuses: (i) borrower, (ii) applicant and (iii) neither borrower nor applicant (i.e. inactive firms or households in the bank credit market). Along the macroeconomic dimension of these gross flows, we document four cyclical facts. First, fluctuations in the number of new borrowers (inflows) account for the bulk of volatility in the net creation of borrowers. Second, the volatility of borrower inflows is two times as large as the volatility of obligors exiting from the credit market (outflows). Third, borrower inflows are highly procyclical and tend to lead the business cycle. Fourth, decreases in the probability of a match between borrower and lender during recessions are a leading explanation for the role of borrower inflows. JEL Classification: E51, E32, E44 |
| Keywords: | Borrower flows, business cycles, credit cycles, credit market participation |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:2021125&r= |
| By: | Loučanová, Erika; Paluš, Hubert; Báliková, Klára; Dzian, Michal; Slašťanova, Nikola; Šálka, Jaroslav |
| Abstract: | Innovations represent the engine of the business and economic. This is particularly relevant to the traditional sectors such as forestry and forest-based industry that are expected to play an important role in the future steps oriented towards meeting the sustainable development goals. The main aim of this study is to analyse the stakeholders’ perceptions of the innovation trends in the forestry and forest-based sectors by using a Q-methodology. This research addressed three groups of respondents in Slovakia, whose task was to subjectively assess innovative trends in the forestry and forest-based sectors. Based on the results it can be concluded that the innovation trend in the forestry and forest-based sectors will be oriented towards the technological progress focused on the increasing efficiency of wood processing and increasing the usability of waste material as well as the trend of increasing development of innovations in the forest recreation services. |
| Keywords: | innovation, innovation system, innovation trends, forestry and forest-based sectors, Q-methodology, stakeholders |
| JEL: | M29 O31 Q57 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109679&r= |
| By: | Mau Vladimir (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | A turbulent decade ended with the turbulent year of 2020. Starting with the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the world economy and politics were in a state of unstable uncertainty, which ended with a full-scale explosion - the pandemic of a new coronavirus. The further socioeconomic development of the world as a whole and of individual countries (developed and leading developing) will be determined by how the lessons of the past 12 years and of 2020 in particular are studied, interpreted and assimilated. The events of 2020 have been compared with different crisis periods of the past, especially economic ones: the Great Depression of the 1930s2, the structural crisis of the 1970s, the financial and economic crisis of the 1970s, and the economic crisis of the 1980s. These comparisons are fair, especially if you compare their quantitative characteristics - the depth of the recession, the scale of unemployment, etc. But to understand the current situation and identify ways to overcome the crisis, we need an analysis that goes beyond historical analogies (important as they are) and beyond economic subjects and arguments. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, COVID-19, economic growth, economic crisis, economic policy |
| JEL: | P16 P26 P48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1113&r= |
| By: | Federico Guglielmo Morelli; Karl Naumann-Woleske; Michael Benzaquen; Marco Tarzia; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud |
| Abstract: | In the General Theory, Keynes remarked that the economy's state depends on expectations, and that these expectations can be subject to sudden swings. In this work, we develop a multiple equilibria behavioural business cycle model that can account for demand or supply collapses due to abrupt drops in consumer confidence, which affect both consumption propensity and investment. We show that, depending on the model parameters, four qualitatively different outcomes can emerge, characterised by the frequency of capital scarcity and/or demand crises. In the absence of policy measures, the duration of such crises can increase by orders of magnitude when parameters are varied, as a result of the "paradox of thrift". Our model suggests policy recommendations that prevent the economy from getting trapped in extended stretches of low output, low investment and high unemployment. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09386&r= |
| By: | Ajayi, V.; Weyman-Jones, T.; ; |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of deregulation and the political support for it on the electric power industry using a consistent state-level electricity generation dataset for the US contiguous states from 1997-2014. Recent analyses of productivity growth suggests that institutional factors are important and we wish to study the role of deregulation as a statelevel institutional change through two measures: (a) restructuring and (b) the political support for it, measured by the majority political affiliation of public utility commissions. We find evidence of positive impacts of deregulation (both restructuring and the political support for it) on technical efficiency across the models estimated. Our preferred model which allows for the control for deregulation variables on the mean and variance of the inefficiency shows an average technical efficiency of 73.1 percent. The results of the marginal effects reveal that the impact of deregulation including its political support on inefficiency is negative and monotonic, with the potential reduction of 8.4 percent in the mean of technical inefficiency, thereby suggesting a compelling evidence for generation efficiency improvement via deregulation. |
| Keywords: | Electricity generation, technical efficiency, marginal effect, restructuring, regulatory institutions |
| JEL: | C23 D24 L51 L94 |
| Date: | 2021–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2166&r= |
| By: | Rodrigo Ceni (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Gabriel Merlo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | In a market economy, firms are continuously exposed to economic shocks that affect their performance and results. In response to these shocks, firms react by reallocating their productive factors, such as capital and labor, to more productive uses. We estimate the job flows over a twenty-year period in Uruguay, exploring firm and worker characteristics. We use panel data from social security administrative records that match employers and employees in formal firms between 1996 and 2015. Job flow levels and their cycles are consistent with international evidence. Entry and exit of firms from the market play an important role, explaining about 30% of the total number of jobs created and destroyed for the whole period with high heterogeneity across industries, firm age, and firm size. In particular, the smallest firms are not as relevant in explaining net growth as political and popular beliefs would suggest, and it is start-ups that have the main role in job creation in Uruguay. Despite representing only 5% of total employment, they created more than one-quarter of new jobs and maintained this role in a fully saturated regression. Among worker characteristics, we found no differences in job flows by gender, but female workers gain participation in the period; there are bigger flow rates among workers under 25 and workers in the first and third wage terciles. |
| Keywords: | job flows; employer employee match data; formal jobs; Uruguay |
| JEL: | J23 J63 L25 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-10-21&r= |
| By: | Gordon B. Dahl; Matthew M. Knepper |
| Abstract: | Why is workplace sexual harassment chronically underreported? We hypothesize that employers coerce victims into silence through the threat of a retaliatory firing, and test this theory by estimating whether external shocks that reduce the value of a worker's outside options exacerbate underreporting. Under mild assumptions, a rise in the severity of formal complaints is indicative of increased underreporting. Combining this insight with an objective measure of the quality of charges filed with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), we perform two analyses. First, we assess whether workers report sexual harassment more selectively during recessions, when outside labor market options are limited. We estimate the fraction of sexual harassment charges deemed to have merit by the EEOC increases by 0.5-0.7% for each one percentage point increase in a state-industry's monthly unemployment rate. The effect is amplified in industries employing a larger fraction of men and in establishments with a higher share of male managers. Second, we test whether less generous UI benefits create economic incentives for victims of workplace sexual harassment to remain silent. We find the selectivity of sexual harassment charges increases by more than 30% in response to a 50% cut to North Carolina's Unemployment Insurance (UI) program following the Great Recession. |
| JEL: | J71 J78 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29248&r= |
| By: | Tshepiso Gaetsewe (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | Botswana has a large informal economy which continues to grow at a rapid rate. The Government recognises the importance of the sector in reducing unemployment and poverty. However, not much is known about informal firms in order for Government to assist in their development. The objective of this paper is to empirically identify the characteristics of the firms in Botswana’s informal economy. A binary logistic regression model is used to model the characteristics of Botswana’s informal firms, and data employed came from the 2015/16 Botswana Multi-Topic Household Survey (BMTHS). Findings indicate that informal firms in Botswana are likely to be situated in rural areas, they operate in their own households, as sole proprietors. Results further depict that, firms that did not need a loan when starting up (because business needed little capital or business was inherited) are more likely to be informal, than businesses that used household savings or sold assets to start the business. Furthermore, it was also revealed that informal firms are less likely to have small businesses and institutions as the main buyer of their goods and services, as compared to individual buyers. The paper advocates for a policy that is tailor made for the informal sector, to address the specific challenges the sector faces. Government needs to boost the business environment in rural areas, to allow for growth of firms, and create more jobs. More initiatives should be geared towards the encouragement of partnerships, as this will help individuals pool resources and ideas for sustained growth in these firms. |
| Keywords: | Informal economy; Registration; Logistic regression; Botswana |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bid:wpaper:74&r= |
| By: | Altavilla, Carlo; Lemke, Wolfgang; Linzert, Tobias; Tapking, Jens; von Landesberger, Julian |
| Abstract: | This paper summarises the work done by Eurosystem staff in the context of the Strategy Review Seminar on Monetary Policy Instruments. More specifically, it focuses on the efficacy, efficiency and potential side effects of the key monetary policy instruments employed by the European Central Bank since 2014. The following main findings emerge from the analysis. First, instruments have been effective in easing financing conditions and supporting economic growth, employment and inflation. Second, considering the effective lower bound on policy rates, a combination of instruments is generally more efficient than relying on a single tool. Third, side effects have been generally contained so far, but they are found to vary over time and need to be closely monitored on an ongoing basis. Fourth, the monetary policy toolkit needs to remain innovative, diversified, and flexible, i.e. reviewed regularly to ensure that it remains fit for purpose against the backdrop of evolving financial and macroeconomic conditions. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E43, E44, E47 |
| Keywords: | monetary policy instruments, standard and non-standard measures |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021278&r= |
| By: | Tomasz Olma |
| Abstract: | Truncated conditional expectation functions are objects of interest in a wide range of economic applications, including income inequality measurement, financial risk management, and impact evaluation. They typically involve truncating the outcome variable above or below certain quantiles of its conditional distribution. In this paper, based on local linear methods, a novel, two-stage, nonparametric estimator of such functions is proposed. In this estimation problem, the conditional quantile function is a nuisance parameter that has to be estimated in the first stage. The proposed estimator is insensitive to the first-stage estimation error owing to the use of a Neyman-orthogonal moment in the second stage. This construction ensures that inference methods developed for the standard nonparametric regression can be readily adapted to conduct inference on truncated conditional expectations. As an extension, estimation with an estimated truncation quantile level is considered. The proposed estimator is applied in two empirical settings: sharp regression discontinuity designs with a manipulated running variable and randomized experiments with sample selection. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.06150&r= |
| By: | Solomon H. Tarlin |
| Abstract: | In many advanced economies around the world, the share of transactions conducted using cash payments has been falling over the past several years. This change has likely been because of a combination of shifting consumer tastes, improvements in payment technology (specifically credit and debit cards), and the rapid growth of online transactions. As the decline in the cash share has led to some businesses choosing not to accept cash payments, many policymakers have discussed interventions to ensure access to the modern economy for consumers who prefer to pay in cash. Despite the reduced use of cash as a means of payment, currency in circulation has continued to increase in many countries, including the United States. This increase suggests that cash is still providing utility as a store of value. This paper surveys literature and data on the use of cash as a means of payment and discusses how and why the cash share is falling in the United States and around the world. Furthermore, it also discusses the opportunities and challenges of a transition away from cash for consumers, businesses, and society. |
| Keywords: | cashless society; cash payments; electronic payments |
| JEL: | E42 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpcd:93058&r= |
| By: | Sandro Ambuehl; B. Douglas Bernheim |
| Abstract: | We investigate how individuals think groups should aggregate members’ ordinal preferences – that is, how they interpret “the will of the people.” In an experiment, we elicit revealed attitudes toward ordinal preference aggregation and classify subjects according to the rules they apparently deploy. Majoritarianism is rare. Instead, people employ rules that place greater weight on compromise options. The classification’s fit is excellent, and clustering analysis reveals that it does not omit important rules. We ask whether rules are stable across domains, whether people impute cardinal utility from ordinal ranks, and whether attitudes toward aggregation differ across countries with divergent traditions. |
| Keywords: | Experiment, welfare economics, social choice, Borda, Condorcet |
| JEL: | C91 D71 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:395&r= |
| By: | Masood, Amjad; Ahmed, Junaid; Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada |
| Abstract: | In this study, we analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on bilateral trade using monthly data from January to June 2020. Imports of the OECD member states are analysed using a structural gravity model of trade estimated with the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. The analysis is conducted for total imports and for fruit and vegetables. Our findings show a significantly negative impact of the pandemic on both import measures, which is more pronounced for the perishable goods than for aggregate imports. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; Bilateral Trade; Structural Gravity; PPML; OECD |
| JEL: | F1 F14 |
| Date: | 2021–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109651&r= |
| By: | Lucie Schmidt; Lara Shore-Sheppard; Tara Watson |
| Abstract: | A generous safety net may improve mental health outcomes and stress-related health behaviors for single mothers by promoting financial security, but stigma and hassle associated with welfare use could offset some of these gains. We use a simulated safety net eligibility approach that accounts for interactions across safety net programs and relies on changing policies across states and time to identify causal effects of safety net generosity on psychological distress and risky behaviors of single mothers. Our results suggest that a more generous safety net is protective of maternal mental health: we estimate that a $1000 increase to the combined cash and food benefit package reduces severe psychological distress by 5.5 percent. Breaking out effects by individual programs while still controlling for potential benefits from other programs, we find that this reduction is entirely due to simulated tax credit eligibility and appears to occur in the first half of the year, when such benefits are typically received. We find no significant effect of the overall safety net on risky behaviors like smoking and heavy drinking, but this masks offsetting effects of cash and food benefits, suggesting that the impact of improved financial resources depends on details of transfer program design. |
| JEL: | I12 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29258&r= |
| By: | Anastasios Evgenidis (Newcastle University); Masashige Hamano (Waseda University); Wessel N. Vermeulen (Newcastle University) |
| Abstract: | We apply a Bayesian Panel VAR (BPVAR) and DSGE approach to study the regional effects of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. We disentangle the persistent fall in electricity supply following the Fukushima accident, from the immediate but more temporary production shock attributable to the natural disaster. Specifically, we estimate the contribution of the electricity fall on the regions economic recovery. First, we estimate a BPVAR with regional-level data on industrial production, prices, and trade, to obtain impulse responses of the natural disaster shock. We find that all regions experienced a strong and persistent decline in trade, and long-lasting disruptions on production. Inflationary pressures were strong but short-lived. Second, we present a DSGE model that can capture key observations from this empirical model, and provide theoretical impulse response functions that distinguish the immediate production shock, from the persistent electricity supply shock. Thirdly, in line with the predictions from the theoretical model, counterfactual analysis via conditional forecasts based on our BPVAR reveals that the Japanese regional economies, particularly the hit regions, did experience a loss in production and trade due to the persistent fall in electricity supply. |
| Keywords: | Social Choice natural disasters; Bayesian Panel VAR; DSGE; regional spill-overs; counterfactual analysis |
| JEL: | E3 E6 Q54 R1 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2111&r= |
| By: | Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Donatella Cheri (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Sara Banfi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies) |
| Abstract: | The GOAL of the Report 'Smart cities and flagship stores: kitchen furniture" is to provide: Kitchen companies with a tool to identify potential locations where to set their mono-brand stores, keeping into account potential synergies (for instance the presence of complementary brands) as well as an indicator of the cost of the area; The industry, in general, with an analysis on the medium-term trends affecting the main cities worldwide; The Report provides profiles of 85 cities worldwide with a selection of economic and demographic indicators (2013 and 2018), estimates of the potential market for kitchen furniture, in each city and the forecasts for the market development to the year 2023 (*). The study also offers an analysis of the geographical presence of a selected sample of 65 brands, each of which operates as a trend-setter in its own category. Each identified location is characterized by its type (store, multibrand store, shopping centre) and the cost of the area in which they are located. The aim is, thus, to provide a comprehensive view of the cities that a selection of international retailers entered. Finally, each profile presents a selection of kitchen furniture stores, in 82 out of the 85 selected cities. For each CITY PROFILE, the following data, indicators and forecasts are provided: Population and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Households and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Gross domestic product per capita and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Household’s consumption per capita and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Gross domestic product and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Household’s consumption and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Breakdown of households by the level of income, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Kitchen furniture demand and its growth rate, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Spatial analysis of the distribution of 50 brands within the city map; Spatial distribution of a selection of kitchen furniture stores. SELECTED CITIES group by geographic areas: Asia and Pacific: Melbourne, AU; Sydney, AU; Beijing, CN; Chengdu, CN; Chongqing, CN; Guangzhou, CN; Hangzhou, CN; Hong Kong, CN; Jinan, CN; Shanghai, CN; Tianjin, CN; Bangalore, IN; Mumbai, IN; Delhi, IN; Osaka, JP; Tokyo, JP; Seoul, KR; Kuala Lumpur-Klang Valley, MY; Auckland, NZ; Singapore, SG; Bangkok, TH; Ho Chi Minh City, VT. Eastern Europe outside the EU and Russia: Moscow, RU; Saint Petersburg, RU; Ankara, TR; Istanbul, TR; Kiev, UA. Europe: Vienna, AT; Brussels, BE; Prague, CZ; Copenhagen, DK; Helsinki, FI; Lyon, FR; Paris, FR; Berlin, DE; Frankfurt, DE; Munich, DE; Athens, GR; Budapest, HU; Dublin, IE; Milan, IT; Rome, IT; Amsterdam, NL; Oslo, NO; Warsaw, PO; Lisbon, PT; Bucharest, RO; Barcelona, ES; Madrid, ES; Stockholm, SE; Zurich, CH; London, UK; Manchester, UK. Middle East and Africa: Tel Aviv-Jaffa, IL; Doha, QA; Jedda, SA; Riyadh, SA; Cape Town, ZA; Abu Dhabi, AE; Dubai, AE. North America: Montreal, CA; Toronto, CA; Vancouver, CA; Mexico City, MX; Atlanta, US; Boston, US; Chicago, US; Dallas-Fort Worth, US; Detroit, US; Houston, US; Los Angeles, US; Miami, US; Minneapolis-Saint Paul, US; New York, US; Philadelphia, US; Phoenix, US; San Diego, US; San Francisco, US; Seattle, US; Washington, US. South America: Buenos Aires, AR; Rio de Janeiro, BR; Sao Paulo, BR; Santiago de Chile, CL; Bogota, CO; Lima, PE. Among the selected kitchen stores mentioned: 1000 Kuchnie, Al Meera Abu Dhabi, Architecs and Designers Bulding NY, Arredo 3 Mutfak, Binacci, Boffi Berlin, Bulthaup Berlin, Bulthaup Toronto, Bunnings, Cabinets and Beyond, Cabinets To Go, Casa Shopping, Chanintr Living, Da Vinci, Diacocina Madrid, Easy Home Beijing, Eggo, Eurokitchens, German Kitchen Center, Godrej Interio, Gruppo Cucine, HTH, International Market Center, Kaza Planejados, KIC ChongQing, Kitchen&Bath Shop, Kitchen Design Centre, Kitchen Innovation World Shanghai, Kitchen Works LA, Kuchnie Nolte, Kvik, La Cornue, Laura Ashley, Leicht Lisboa,Poggenpohl St Albans, Majestic Kitchens, Marquardt, Miacucina San Diego, Miami Design District, Modular Kitchen Delhi, Oppein Living, Panasonic Living Center, Poggenpohl Boston, Poliform Lyon, Porcelanosa Kitchen, Puustelli,ViA Hong Kong, Scavolini Detroit, Semel Kitchens, Shine Kitchen, Signature Interior, Stopino, theMart Chicago, TKI Amsterdam, Tulp Kitchens, Wuerfel Kuche Bangalore, Zahrani Kitchens. Among the kitchen brands mentioned: Al Meera Kitchens Arc Linea, Bertch, Bilotta, Boffi, Bulthaup, Crystal, Dada, De Wils, Dellanno, Dura Supreme, Elmwood, Eggersmann, Golden Home, Haecker, Hans Krug, Hanssem, Leicht, Lube, Marya, Mobalpa, Nobilia, Nolte, Oppein, Plain&Fancy, Poggenpohl, Poliform, Rutt, Scavolini, Siematic, Signature, Snaidero, Todeschini, Valcucine, Veneta Cucine, Wood Mode, WW Wood Products. Major Local markets monitored: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis-Saint Paul, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington. (*) Our economic and demographic indicator database is dated January 2020, therefore macroeconomic and sectorial estimations and forecasts were made before that date. The world has changed dramatically in the three months as the world has been put in a Great Lockdown. According to the IMF, 'the magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes'. Up to the publication date of this report updates on forecasts up to 2023 havent be released. |
| JEL: | L11 L22 L68 L81 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mst:csilre:s87&r= |
| By: | Heinz Welsch (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The rational choice model of voluntary public good provision predicts that an individual’s contribution to climate change mitigation responds negatively to larger contributions by others whereas social norm theory maintains that one’s own contribution is positively related to that of others. This paper tests the competing hypotheses empirically using representative data for about 30,000 individuals from 23 European countries. The paper finds that, up to a threshold percentage of others perceived to engage in mitigation, individuals’ willingness to engage in mitigation themselves is lower the more other individuals are perceived to engage in such behavior, whereas the relationship is positive when the threshold is passed. Since the actual percentage of others perceived to engage in mitigation is lower than the estimated threshold (30 to 56 percent) in a number of countries, marginal increases in the percentage of others perceived to behave in a climate-friendly way may backfire by enhancing free-rider behavior. For the social norm to take grip, policy-induced non-marginal increases of perceptions may be warranted in such cases. Given that the actual level of the relevant behavior is large relative to the perceived level, informing people about the actual level constitutes a sufficiently large change to trigger an increase in the behavior studied. |
| Keywords: | climate change; social norm; rational choice; voluntary public good provision; social tipping point |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:437&r= |
| By: | Henderson, N.; Firth, I.; Errea, M.; Skedgel, C.; Jofre-Bonet, M. |
| Abstract: | Medicines for rare and ultra-rare conditions face distinct economic and ethical challenges compared to medicines for more common conditions. These challenges are implicitly acknowledged by the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) by providing an auxiliary appraisal route for highly specialized technologies. However, concerns have been raised regarding the appraisals of medicines that don't meet the strict criteria and are, therefore, evaluated via the standard appraisal route (STA). The STA pathway was not designed to consider the greater uncertainty associated with medicines for rare and ultra-rare conditions. In this report, we develop case studies to describe these challenges and how NICE approaches them in their assessment of these medicines. We conducted a series of stakeholder interviews to identify key perceived challenges, better understand the intricacies of the NICE appraisal process and the interplay with NHS England. The case studies include examples of cancer and non-cancer medicines, medicines with multiple indications, and those appraised by the STA and HST routes. In some cases, we find a flexible and pragmatic approach towards uncertainty; these positive examples include consideration of bespoke statistical modelling, expert testimony, and/or the use of real-world evidence. Less positive examples were also observed, especially around inflexible consideration of uncertainties inherent around ultra-rare conditions. NICE has recently proposed promising updates to their methods guidance, and NHS England has announced their intention to implement an Innovative Medicines Fund to fast-track new medicines, such as cutting-edge gene therapies. The authors believe these changes to be encouraging but draw attention to potential shortcomings and areas that may still require improvement to ensure that patients with rare and ultra-rare diseases are treated fairly, relative to patients with more common conditions. |
| Keywords: | Value, Affordability, and Decision Making |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ohe:conrep:002377&r= |
| By: | Jack Mountjoy |
| Abstract: | Two-year community colleges enroll nearly half of all first-time undergraduates in the United States, but to ambiguous effect: low persistence rates and the potential for diverting students from 4-year institutions cast ambiguity over 2-year colleges' contributions to upward mobility. This paper develops a new instrumental variables approach to identifying causal effects along multiple treatment margins, and applies it to linked education and earnings registries to disentangle the net impacts of 2-year college access into two competing causal margins: significant value-added for 2-year entrants who otherwise would not have attended college, but negative impacts on students diverted from immediate 4-year entry. |
| JEL: | C31 C36 I23 I24 I26 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29254&r= |
| By: | Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Over the past year, the pandemic and the resulting crisis whipped up the decision-making process in science and technology policies. A number of top-level programs were revised, alongside some adjustment of budget allocations for R&D projects. Operational decisions were adopted across a number of areas, where discussions and coordinated planning had been underway for several years already (e.g., the transformation of scientific research funds, improvement of coordination and promotion of continuity between the development institutions operating in the science and technology sector, alterations in the current procedures for estimating the cost-effectiveness of budget-funded venture capital investment, etc.), in order to significantly change the situation in that sphere. Besides, some important normative legal changes were introduced, which addressed the science sector and promoted the creation of a favorable environment for developing and implementing technological innovations. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, R&D, science, technology |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O3 I28 I2 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1128&r= |
| By: | Escribano Sáez, Álvaro; Ortega, Álvaro |
| Abstract: | Renewable generation has increased exceptionally its weight in power markets, and its relevance is due to increase with the introduction of recent climate policies in Europe. The merit-order effect ranks first on the direct impacts of renewables on electricity markets. However, in order to analyse its impact, it is important to control for the different forces driving electricity prices. As a result, the analysis through a structural model of demand and supply of electricity is interesting to capture price drivers and therefore measure correctly the merit-order effect. The objective of this paper is tointroduce this framework on the Spanish day-ahead market, using weekly data for the period 2013-2019. The empirical analysis is carried out using structural vector autoregressive models (SVAR) and autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL) to each equation, with the addition of GARCH models to control for the possible autoregressive volatility behaviour of the residuals. In line with previous literature, we obtain that demand of electricity is elastic to economic growth, price-inelastic and shows a significant level of substitution between electricity and natural gas. The supply function is also price-inelastic, after controlling for capacity factors, inputs prices and external balance, that are shown to be significant. The estimated values of the merit-order effect is aligned with previous literature. We obtain that a 10% increase in the average quantity generated by the special regime technologies (wind, solar and CHP) is associated with a 5 % reduction in electricity prices, around 2.35Euros/MWh of the average price for the analysed period. |
| Keywords: | Demand of Electricity; Supply of Electricity; Merit-Order; Renewable Generation; Capacity Factor; Day-Ahead Power Market |
| JEL: | L94 L51 L52 L13 |
| Date: | 2021–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:33298&r= |
| By: | Pablo Delgado (Department of Applied Economics and Economic History and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, IA2 (UNIZAR-CITA), University of Zaragoza, Spain) |
| Abstract: | The role played by the Spanish industry in the international markets during the first globalization has led to a deep discussion in the literature. Some scholars point out that, despite of weak national demand, the Spanish industrial firms chose to focus on the domestic market rather than competing in the international markets. We dispute that hypothesis by analysing Spanish exports on the margins and in a highly disaggregated manner in 1890 and 1913. We find that manufacturing firms were highly dynamic finding out several new external markets and exporting new products. Nevertheless, the new markets were characterized by low potential demand due to both size and income. Last, we use the diplomatic network per country as well as several consulate reports to propose that Spanish firms were missing many market opportunities. This could be explained by a lack of diplomacy, emigration, insufficiency of propaganda or credit restriction to export. |
| Keywords: | first globalization, international trade, Spanish industrialization |
| JEL: | F14 N63 N73 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2105&r= |
| By: | Michel Ajzen; Laurent Taskin (Louvain School of Management Research Institute (ILSM) - Louvain School of Management Research Institute (ILSM)) |
| Abstract: | Existing studies on flexwork stress its individualizing inclination by showing how it gives autonomy to employees, boosts individual productivity, or supports personal well-being at the expense of group cohesiveness, social ties and other characteristics of the "collective" in organizations. Obviously, flexwork both continues and contributes to an individualization process of working activities and relationships. But, how exactly does flexwork re-regulate working relationships and communities? Is the "collective" irremediably damaged and doomed to disappear? Building on a case study conducted in an insurance company having implemented flexwork, we observe invisibilized employees working from diverse premises (e.g., home, office, etc.) initiating alternative ways of staying united and close. This article shows the re-regulation of these working relationships and communities' through a collective identity process involving de/re-spacing identity; i.e., the spatial and material aspects of flexible work in relation to identity. |
| Keywords: | flexwork,collective identity,spacing identity,regulation,working communities,working relationships |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03345447&r= |
| By: | Mbuyi Allegra Kabamba (UNIKIN - Université de Kinshasa); L. Deborah Matadi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of the exchange rate on economic growth. Our empirical analysis focuses on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) from 1990 to 2019 and uses the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The results show that exchange rate fluctuations have a negative effect on economic growth. In light of these results, we proposed a number of recommendations, including strengthening resilience through diversification of economic activity, building up budgetary reserves and increasing the level of international reserves. The latter, which can currently cover only three weeks of imports of goods and services, should be gradually increased to a long-term perspective. |
| Abstract: | RESUME Cet article étudie les effets du taux de change sur la croissance économique. Notre analyse empirique porte sur la République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) de 1990 à 2019 et s'est appuyée sur la méthode des Moindres Carrés Ordinaires (MCO). Les résultats démontrent que les fluctuations du taux de change ont un effet négatif sur la croissance économique. Au regard de ces résultats, nous avons proposé quelques recommandations dont le renforcement de la résilience par la diversification de l'activité économique, la constitution des réserves budgétaires et le relèvement du niveau des réserves internationales. Ces dernières, qui ne peuvent couvrir actuellement que 3 semaines d'importation des biens et services, devraient être progressivement portées au-delà dans une perspective de long terme. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate,OLS,economic growth,DRC.,Taux de change,MCO,croissance économique,RDC. |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03346489&r= |
| By: | Fernando Arias-Rodríguez; Julián A. Parra-Polanía |
| Abstract: | Analizamos los efectos que tendría el envejecimiento poblacional en las próximas décadas sobre el sistema pensional colombiano y sobre diferentes variables macroeconómicas. También consideramos el impacto de implementar gradualmente algunas reformas (aumento en la edad de pensión, reducción en la tasa de reemplazo y aumento de la porción de vida laboral considerada para el cálculo de la pensión del régimen de reparto). La disminución en la tasa de crecimiento poblacional afectaría considerablemente los retornos reales del régimen de reparto y, por tanto, para mantener las condiciones actuales de pensión de ese régimen se requeriría un incremento significativo en el cobro de impuestos. En contraste, con la implementación de las reformas analizadas, poco a poco se irían reduciendo los subsidios otorgados en el régimen de reparto. La consecuente disminución de impuestos y el aumento del ahorro en la economía, y por tanto del nivel de capital, incrementarían la productividad del trabajo y producirían tanto una subida del salario real como una caída de la tasa de interés real. Como consecuencia de las reformas y sus efectos se reducirían en gran medida las diferencias de bienestar entre regímenes pensionales y aumentaría, en el largo plazo, el bienestar de todos los individuos, tanto en el régimen de ahorro como en el de reparto. **** ABSTRACT: We analyze the effects of population aging in the next decades on the Colombian pension system and on several macroeconomic variables. We also consider the impact of several reforms that are gradually implemented in the economy (increasing the retirement age, reducing the replacement rate, and increasing the number of years considered in calculating pensions in the Pay-As-You-Go regime (PAYG)). A diminishing population growth rate would considerably affect the real returns of the PAYG; therefore, in maintaining the current pension conditions under such a regime, significant increases on taxes would be required. Conversely, with the implementation of the parametric reforms considered, the subsidies granted under PAYG regime would slowly be reduced. The resulting lower tax rates and greater savings in the economy, hence a greater capital stock, would increase the labor productivity as well as the real salary. It would also decrease the real interest rate. The welfare gap between pensión regimes could shrink because of the reforms and their effects. In the long run, the welfare of all individuals, irrespective of their pension regime choice, would increase. |
| Keywords: | pensiones, reforma pensional, análisis macroeconómico, envejecimiento poblacional, régimen de reparto, régimen de ahorro, pensions, pension reform, macroeconomic analysis, population aging, PAYG regime, Fully Funded regime |
| JEL: | H55 E60 J11 J26 C68 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1173&r= |
| By: | Serdar Birinci; Fernando Leibovici; Kurt See |
| Abstract: | We quantify the barriers that impede the integration of immigrants into foreign la-bor markets and investigate their aggregate implications. We develop a model of occupational choice with natives and immigrants of multiple types whose decisions are subject to wedges which distort their allocation across occupations. We esti-mate the model to match salient features of U.S. and cross-country individual-level data. We ?nd that there are sizable GDP gains from removing the wedges faced by immigrants in U.S. labor markets, accounting for approximately one-?fth of the overall economic contribution of immigrants to the U.S. economy. These e?ects arise from both increased ?ows from non-participation to predominantly manual jobs as well as from reallocation within the market sector that raises productivity in non-routine cognitive jobs. We contrast our ?ndings for the U.S. with estimates for 11 high-income countries and document substantial di?erences in the magnitude of im-migrant wedges across countries. Importantly, we ?nd di?erences in the distribution of immigrant wedges across occupations lead to substantial variation in the gains from removing immigrant misallocation, even among countries with similar average degrees of distortions. |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:809&r= |
| By: | Deepak Malghan; Hema Swaminathan |
| Abstract: | Di?erences in economic outcomes between men and women within a household, or intra-household gender inequality has su?ered from relative neglect despite a renewed focus on gender inequality. Using global micro-data from nearly three million house-holds, we present evidence that this neglect renders our understanding of the relation-ship between gender inequality and economic development analytically and empirically incomplete. We show that intra-household gender inequality in earnings is persistent across the income distribution, across a wide range to countries, and over four-decades. For a sub-sample of countries, we show that the relationship between intra-household gender inequality and household economic status is non-monotonic – that we refer to as the “micro-Kuznets” relationship. We also develop an empirical framework to mea-sure the aggregate welfare loss from intra-household gender inequality. For a range of plausible inequality aversion assumptions, we report an median welfare loss of over 15% of aggregate earnings. |
| JEL: | D63 I31 J16 D10 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:lwswps:34&r= |
| By: | Huang, Chien-Yu; Wu, Youchang; Yang, Yibai; Zheng, Zhijie |
| Abstract: | We explore the growth and welfare effects of monetary policy in a two-sector Schumpeterian economy with cash-in-advance (CIA) constrained R&D investment in both sectors. We show that a nominal interest rate increase generates two effects on equilibrium labor allocation: a manufacturing-R&D-reallocation effect and a cross-R&D-sector effect. The former reduces economic growth by shifting labor from R&D to production, whereas the latter can enhance it by shifting labor from the less productive R&D sector to the more productive one. Unless the high productivity R&D sector is severely more CIA-constrained than the low productivity one, aggregate R&D overinvestment is sufficient but not necessary for the Friedman rule of monetary policy to be suboptimal. Our benchmark parameterization suggests that a positive nominal interest rate is optimal despite that it exacerbates the aggregate R&D underinvestment problem. |
| Keywords: | CIA constraint, Endogenous growth; Monetary policy; R&D; Creative destruction. |
| JEL: | E41 O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2021–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109780&r= |
| By: | Cyril Couaillier; Valerio Scalone |
| Abstract: | In this work we present the Risk-to-Buffer: a new framework to jointly calibrate cyclical and structural capital buffers, based on the integration of a non-linear macroeconomic model with a Stress test model. The macroeconomic model generates scenarios whose severity depends on the level of cyclical risk. Risk-related scenarios feed into a banks' Stress test model. Banks' capital losses deriving from the reference-risk scenario are used to calibrate the structural buffer. Additional losses associated to the current-risk scenario are used to calibrate the cyclical buffer. |
| Keywords: | Financial Vulnerability, Macroprudential Policy, Non-linear Models, Macroprudential Space, Deb |
| JEL: | C32 E51 E58 G51 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:830&r= |
| By: | Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Tapas Mishra (University of Southampton); Faustine Perrin (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Lund University [Lund]) |
| Abstract: | Recent theoretical developments in growth models, triggered particularly by unified theories of growth, suggest that the child quantity-quality trade-off is a defining element in our explanation of a transition from Malthusian stagnation to a sustained growth path. This paper presents a model and derives a testable empirical framework to investigate the role of gender in the trade-off between education and fertility for 86 French counties during the 19th century. Endogeneity-mitigated mean-and median-based regressions offer robust empirical predictions for gender-empowered quantity-quality trade-off. In particular, we find the existence of a significant and negative association between education and fertility. Further, while gauging the differential effects of schooling on fertility, we find that the short-run differences between male and female are small whilst the long-run effects are large. From policy perspective, our results imply that for stable long-run growth it matters not just that parents educate their children, but specifically that they choose to educate girls. |
| Keywords: | Model of individuals' choice,Gender difference,Education,Fertility,Unified growth theory,Nineteenth century France,Quantity-quality trade-off,Cliometrics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03345562&r= |
| By: | Bianchi, Milo; Dana, Rose-Anne; Jouini, Elyès |
| Abstract: | Consider a rm owned by shareholders with heterogeneous beliefs and run by a manager who chooses random production plans. Shareholders do not observe the chosen plan but only its realization. The nancial market consists of assets contingent on production realizations. A contract for the manager species her compensation as a function of the rms production and possibly some restrictions to trade in the nancial market. Shareholders are unrestricted. We dene a concept of equilibrium between the manager and shareholders such that the equilibrium production plan is unanimously preferred by the manager and the shareholders, markets clear and the manager has no incentive to cheat. We rst analyze the properties of such equilibria and in particular show that the contract should restrict the manager from trading. We next provide a framework where such equilibria exist. We lastly study the properties of equilibrium compensations when shareholders have beliefs that can be ranked in terms of optimism towards the equilibrium plan. Specic attention is given to their departure from linear compensations. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous beliefs; asymmetric information; manager-shareholders equi-; librium. |
| JEL: | G32 G34 D24 D51 D70 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125984&r= |
| By: | Junpei Komiyama; Shunya Noda |
| Abstract: | We propose deviation-based learning, a new approach to training recommender systems. In the beginning, the recommender and rational users have different pieces of knowledge, and the recommender needs to learn the users' knowledge to make better recommendations. The recommender learns users' knowledge by observing whether each user followed or deviated from her recommendations. We show that learning frequently stalls if the recommender always recommends a choice: users tend to follow the recommendation blindly, and their choices do not reflect their knowledge. Social welfare and the learning rate are improved drastically if the recommender abstains from recommending a choice when she predicts that multiple arms will produce a similar payoff. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09816&r= |
| By: | Brand, Claus; Obstbaum, Meri; Coenen, Günter; Sondermann, David; Lydon, Reamonn; Ajevskis, Viktors; Hammermann, Felix; Angino, Siria; Hernborg, Nils; Basso, Henrique; Hertweck, Matthias; Bijnens, Gert; Hutchinson, John; Bobeica, Elena; Jacquinot, Pascal; Bodnár, Katalin; Kanutin, Andrew; Botelho, Vasco; Karsay, Alex; Colciago, Andrea; Kienzler, Daniel; Consolo, Agostino; Kolndrekaj, Aleksandra; De Philippis, Marta; Lhuissier, Stéphane; Da Silva, António Dias; Le Roux, Julien; Dossche, Maarten; Lozej, Matija; Dupraz, Stéphane; Martins, Fernando; Falath, Juraj; Mazelis, Falk; Ferrari, Alessandro; Mongelli, Francesco; Gomes, Sandra; Montero, José; Salvador, Ramon Gomez; Motto, Roberto; Goy, Gavin; Nakov, Anton; Grasso, Adriana; Osterloh, Steffen; Guglielminetti, Elisa; Pidkuyko, Myroslav; Haavio, Markus; Piton, Celine; Ploj, Gasper; Slacalek, Jirka; Polemidiotis, Marios; Sokol, Andrej; Propst, Maximilian; Soudan, Michel; Neves, Pedro Luis Rebelo; Szörfi, Béla; Ristiniemi, Annukka; Thaler, Dominik; Pereira, Manuel Bernado Rodrigues; Vanhala, Juuso; Saint-Guilhem, Arthur; Warne, Anders; Justo, Ana Seco; Zhutova, Anastasia; Seward, Domingos |
| Abstract: | This report discusses the role of the European Union’s full employment objective in the conduct of the ECB’s monetary policy. It first reviews a range of indicators of full employment, highlights the heterogeneity of labour market outcomes within different groups in the population and across countries, and documents the flatness of the Phillips curve in the euro area. In this context, it is stressed that labour market structures and trend labour market outcomes are primarily determined by national economic policies. The report then recalls that, in many circumstances, inflation and employment move together and pursuing price stability is conducive to supporting employment. However, in response to economic shocks that give rise to a temporary trade-off between employment and inflation stabilisation, the ECB’s medium-term orientation in pursuing price stability is shown to provide flexibility to contribute to the achievement of the EU’s full employment objective. Regarding the conduct of monetary policy in a low interest rate environment, model-based simulations suggest that history-dependent policy approaches − which have been proposed to overcome lasting shortfalls of inflation due to the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates by a more persistent policy response to disinflationary shocks − can help to bring employment closer to full employment, even though their effectiveness depends on the strength of the postulated expectations channels. Finally, the importance of employment income and wealth inequality in the transmission of monetary policy strengthens the case for more persistent or forceful easing policies (in pursuit of price stability) when interest rates are constrained by their lower bound. JEL Classification: E52, E24 |
| Keywords: | Employment, inequality, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021275&r= |
| By: | Carol Alexander; Xi Chen; Charles Ward |
| Abstract: | We model investor heterogeneity using different required returns on an investment and evaluate the impact on the valuation of an investment. By assuming no disagreement on the cash flows, we emphasize how risk preferences in particular, but also the costs of capital, influence a subjective evaluation of the decision to invest now or retain the option to invest in future. We propose a risk-adjusted valuation model to facilitate investors' subjective decision making, in response to the market valuation of an investment opportunity. The investor's subjective assessment arises from their perceived misvaluation of the investment by the market, so projected cash flows are discounted using two different rates representing the investor's and the market's view. This liberates our model from perfect or imperfect hedging assumptions and instead, we are able to illustrate the hedging effect on the real option value when perceptions of risk premia diverge. During crises periods, delaying an investment becomes more valuable as the idiosyncratic risk of future cash flows increases, but the decision-maker may rush to invest too quickly when the risk level is exceptionally high. Our model verifies features established by classical real-option valuation models and provides many new insights about the importance of modelling divergences in decision-makers risk premia, especially during crisis periods. It also has many practical advantages because it requires no more parameter inputs than basic discounted cash flow approaches, such as the marketed asset disclaimer method, but the outputs are much richer. They allow for complex interactions between cost and revenue uncertainties as well as an easy exploration of the effects of hedgeable and un-hedgeable risks on the real option value. Furthermore, we provide fully-adjustable Python code in which all parameter values can be chosen by the user. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.04793&r= |
| By: | Lodge, David; Pérez, Javier J.; Albrizio, Silvia; Everett, Mary; De Bandt, Olivier; Georgiadis, Georgios; Ca' Zorzi, Michele; Lastauskas, Povilas; Carluccio, Juan; Parrága, Susana; Carvalho, Daniel; Venditti, Fabrizio; Cova, Pietro; Attinasi, Maria Grazia; Fontagné, Lionel; Mozzanica, Mirco Balatti; Giron, Celestino; Banerjee, Biswajit; Gunnella, Vanessa; Baumann, Ursel; Hemmerlé, Yannick; Bricongne, Jean-Charles; Jochem, Axel; Chiacchio, Francesco; Karjanlahti, Kristiina; Coimbra, Nuno; Kataryniuk, Ivan; Del Giudice, Davide; Korhonen, Iikka; De Luigi, Clara; Kühnlenz, Markus; Dimitropoulou, Dimitra; Labhard, Vincent; Di Nino, Virginia; Le Mezo, Helena; Dorrucci, Ettore; Meinen, Philipp; Eichler, Eric; Mattias, Nilsson; Feldkircher, Martin; Osbat, Chiara; Felettigh, Alberto; Quaglietti, Lucia; Reininger, Thomas; Stumpner, Sebastian; Schmidt, Julia; Van Schaik, Ilona; Schmitz, Martin; Wacket, Helmut; Serafini, Roberta; Zumer, Tina; Siena, Daniele |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses how globalisation has shaped the economic environment in which the ECB operates and discusses whether this warrants adjustments to the monetary policy strategy. The paper first looks at how trade and financial integration have evolved since the last strategy review in 2003. It then examines the effects of these developments on global productivity growth, the natural interest rate (r*), inflation trends and monetary transmission. While trade globalisation initially boosted productivity growth, this effect may be waning as trade integration slows and market contestability promotes a winner-takes-all environment. The impact of globalisation on r* has been ambiguous: downward pressures, fuelled by global demand for safe assets and an increase in the propensity to save against a background of rising inequality, are counteracted by upward pressures, from the boost to global productivity associated with greater trade integration. Headline inflation rates have become more synchronised globally, largely because commodity prices are increasingly determined by global factors. Meanwhile, core inflation rates show a lower degree of commonality. Globalisation has made a rather modest contribution to the synchronised fall in trend inflation across countries and contributed only moderately to the reduction in the responsiveness of inflation to changes in activity. Regarding monetary transmission, globalisation has made the role of the exchange rate more complex by introducing new mechanisms through which it affects financial conditions, real activity and price dynamics. Against the background of this discussion, the paper then examines the implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. In doing so, it asks two questions. How is the ECB’s economic and monetary analysis affected by globalisation? And how does globalisation influence the choice of the ECB’s monetary policy objective and instruments? ... JEL Classification: E58, F42, F44, F62, F65 |
| Keywords: | Globalisation, inflation, monetary policy strategy, productivity, r* |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021263&r= |
| By: | Christine Balagué (CONNECT - Consommateur Connecté dans la Société Numérique - DEFI - Département Droit, Economie et Finances - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School) |
| Date: | 2020–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03121392&r= |
| By: | Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Baeva Marina (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The WTO utilizes the trade dispute settlement mechanism in accordance with the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU). As a WTO member, Russia has the right to uphold its trade interests by means of this instrument. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1122&r= |
| By: | Koester, Gerrit; Lis, Eliza; Nickel, Christiane; Osbat, Chiara; Smets, Frank |
| Abstract: | From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical developments account for a substantial share of the fall in underlying inflation, mainly in the first part of the low inflation period. Additionally, there is evidence that an underestimation of the amount of economic slack and less well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations, in combination with monetary policy in the euro area being constrained by the effective lower bound, have played an important role in the long period of subdued inflation. Ongoing disinflationary structural trends (such as globalisation, digitalisation and demographic factors) are likely to have had a dampening effect on inflation over the last few decades, but were in themselves not the main drivers of low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019. However, as they could not have been easily offset by interest rate policy in an effective lower bound environment, they might also have contributed to the more subdued inflation dynamics in the euro area from 2013 to 2019. JEL Classification: C51, E31, E32, E37, E52, F62, J11, J30 |
| Keywords: | effective lower bound, HICP inflation, low inflation, Monetary policy review, underlying inflation |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021280&r= |
| By: | Debrun, Xavier; Masuch, Klaus; Ferrero, Guiseppe; Vansteenkiste, Isabel; Ferdinandusse, Marien; von Thadden, Leopold; Hauptmeier, Sebastian; Alloza, Mario; Derouen, Chloé; Bańkowski, Krzysztof; Domingues Semeano, João; Barthélemy, Jean; Eisenschmidt, Jens; Bletzinger, Tilman; Faria, Thomas; Bonam, Dennis; Freier, Maximilian; Bouabdallah, Othman; Galati, Gabriele; Burriel, Pablo; Garcia, José; Campos, Maria; Gardó, Sándor; da Costa, José Cardoso; Gerke, Rafael; Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; Hammermann, Felix; Chmelar, Bernadette; Haroutunian, Stephan; Cimadomo, Jacopo; Hartung, Benjamin; Christoffe, Kai; Jacquinot, Pascal; Kamps, Christophe; Poelhekke, Steven; Kataryniuk, Ivan; Pool, Sebastiaan; Körding, Julia; Prammer, Doris; Kostka, Tommy; Romanelli, Marzia; Maćkowiak, Bartosz; Röttger, Joost; Mazelis, Falk; Sauer, Stephan; Marrazzo, Marco; Schmidt, Katja; Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Schmidt, Sebastian; Muggenthaler, Philip; Schupp, Fabian; Nerlich, Carolin; Setzer, Ralph; Nuño, Galo; Slawinska, Kamila; Ozden, Talga; Trzcinska, Agnieszka; Paulus, Alari; Valenta, Vilém; Penciu, Alexandru; Vladu, Andreea; Piloiu, Anamaria; Wolswijk, Guido; Pisani, Massimiliano |
| Abstract: | The last review of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy in 2003 followed a period of predominantly upside risks to price stability. Experience following the 2008 financial crisis has focused renewed attention on the question of how monetary and fiscal policy should best interact, in particular in an environment of structurally low interest rates and persistent downside risks to price stability. This debate has been further intensified by the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In the euro area, the unique architecture of a monetary union consisting of sovereign Member States, with cross-country heterogeneities and weaknesses in its overall construction, poses important challenges. Against this background, this report revisits monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area from a monetary policy perspective and with a focus on the ramifications for price stability and maintaining central bank independence and credibility. The report consists of three parts. The first chapter presents a conceptual framework for thinking about monetary-fiscal policy interactions, thereby setting the stage for a discussion of specifically euro area aspects and challenges in subsequent parts of the report. In particular, it reviews the main ingredients of the pre-global financial crisis consensus on monetary-fiscal policy interactions and addresses significant new insights and refinements which have gained prominence since 2003. In doing so, the chapter distinguishes between general conceptual aspects – i.e. those aspects that pertain to an environment characterised by a single central bank and a single fiscal authority and those aspects that pertain to an environment characterised by a single central bank and many fiscal authorities (a multi-country monetary union). ... JEL Classification: E52, E58, E62, E63, F45 |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Monetary Union |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021273&r= |
| By: | Stoian, Andreea; Vintila, Nicoleta; Iorgulescu, Filip; Cepoi, Cosmin Octavian; Dina Manolache, Aurora |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between risk aversion, financial literacy, and investment preferences of young adults in higher education in Romania. For this purpose, we conducted a survey that measured the basic, advanced and overall financial literacy, risk aversion, and parental financial behaviours. We had 479 respondents and a similar number of useable surveys. Resorting to OLS and IV econometric methods, we show that financial literacy, regardless of its level, contributes to reducing risk aversion quantified by the risk premium. Moreover, positive financial behaviours of parents also decrease the risk aversion. This finding is invalid in the case of a self-assessed risk tolerance. We also found that young adults' investment preferences are influenced by the self-assessed risk tolerance and not by the risk aversion. However, financial literacy increases the probability of young adults to select bonds or funds as investment options, but does not have a statistically significant influence on the selection of stocks, which is mainly driven by the self-assessed risk profile as well as bank deposits. |
| Keywords: | financial literacy, risk aversion, risk premium, investment choices, survey methods |
| JEL: | C83 G11 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109755&r= |
| By: | Blagov, Boris; Müller, Henrik; Jentsch, Carsten; Schmidt, Torsten |
| Abstract: | Corporate investment in Germany has been relatively weak for a prolonged period after the financial crisis. This was remarkable given that interest rates and overall economic activity, important determinants of corporate investment, developed quite favourably during that time. These developments highlight the fact that the dynamics of business cycles varies over time: each cycle is somewhat different. A promising new line of research to identify the driving factors of business cycles is the use of narratives (Shiller 2017, 2020). Widely shared stories capture expectations and beliefs about the workings of the economy that may influence economic behavior, such as investment decisions. In this paper, we use Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to identify topics from news (text) data related to corporate investment in Germany and to construct suitable indicators. Furthermore, we focus on isolating those investment narratives that show the potential to lead to substantial improvement of the forecasting performance of econometric models. In our analysis, we demonstrate the benefit of using media-based indicators to improve econometric forecasts of business equipment investment. Newspaper data carries important information both on the future developments of investment (forecasting) as well as on current developments (nowcasting). Moreover, the identified investment narrative enables the researcher to improve her/his understanding of the investment process in general and allows to incorporate exogenous developments as well as economic sentiment, news and other relevant events to the analysis. |
| Keywords: | narrative economics,mixed-frequency,nowcasting via media data |
| JEL: | C53 C82 E32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:921&r= |
| By: | Steven Brakman; Harry Garretsen; Tristan Kohl |
| Abstract: | The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its ‘Global Britain’ strategy, in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that ‘Global Britain’ yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that independence from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be entirely removed for each of these devolved nations conditional on a renewed trade deal with the EU. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, gravity model |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9292&r= |
| By: | Sascha Desmettre; Simon Hochgerner; Sanela Omerovic; Stefan Thonhauser |
| Abstract: | We introduce a mean-field extension of the LIBOR market model (LMM) which preserves the basic features of the original model. Among others, these features are the martingale property, a directly implementable calibration and an economically reasonable parametrization of the classical LMM. At the same time, the mean-field LIBOR market model (MF-LMM) is designed to reduce the probability of exploding scenarios, arising in particular in the market-consistent valuation of long-term guarantees. To this end, we prove existence and uniqueness of the corresponding MF-LMM and investigate its practical aspects, including a Black '76-type formula. Moreover, we present an extensive numerical analysis of the MF-LMM. The corresponding Monte Carlo method is based on a suitable interacting particle system which approximates the underlying mean-field equation. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10779&r= |
| By: | Simon Fritzsch; Maike Timphus; Gregor Weiss |
| Abstract: | Copulas. We study the model risk of multivariate risk models in a comprehensive empirical study on Copula-GARCH models used for forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. To determine whether model risk inherent in the forecasting of portfolio risk is caused by the candidate marginal or copula models, we analyze different groups of models in which we fix either the marginals, the copula, or neither. Model risk is economically significant, is especially high during periods of crisis, and is almost completely due to the choice of the copula. We then propose the use of the model confidence set procedure to narrow down the set of available models and reduce model risk for Copula-GARCH risk models. Our proposed approach leads to a significant improvement in the mean absolute deviation of one day ahead forecasts by our various candidate risk models. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10946&r= |
| By: | Luca Fanelli; Antonio Marsi |
| Abstract: | High-frequency (HF) surprises of relevant asset prices around central bank meetings are extensively employed in the literature to identify the effects of conventional/unconventional monetary policy. This identification strategy assumes that these surprises reflect either a single unconventional ‘monetary shock’ or, as recently suggested, jointly an unconventional monetary shock and a central bank ‘information shock’. In this paper we show that monetary policy in the euro area after 2008 is best characterized by three shocks, not two. Besides the unconventional monetary shock and the information shock, we consider a third shock resulting from the ECB directly managing fragmentation risk in the sovereign bond market. We call this additional shock ‘spread shock’, and show that it permits to solve a puzzle we observe in HF comovement of long term risk free rates and sovereign spreads around press conferences. We identify the dynamic causal effects produced by the three shocks through a proxy-SVAR methodology which, using HF surprises of the euro area risk-free yield curve, stock prices and sovereign spreads, combines sign-restrictions with narrative restrictions and then extracts external variables (instruments) from an admissible identification set. Empirical results, obtained through a daily proxy-SVAR and Local Projections based on monthly data, reveal that the spread shock represents an important ingredient of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy after the Global Financial Crisis. It reflects ECB’s attempt to offset self-fulling expectations of default in the euro area sovereign debt markets and behaves as a complement, not a substitute of the information shock. |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 G10 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1164&r= |
| By: | Matej Bajgar (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute); Chiara Criscuolo (OECD); Jonathan Timmis (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new evidence on the growing scale of big businesses in the United States, Japan, and Europe. It finds broad evidence of rising industry concentration across the majority of countries and sectors over the period 2002 to 2014. Rising concentration is strongly associated with intensive investment in intangibles, particularly innovative assets, software, and data. This relationship appears to be stronger in more globalised and digital-intensive industries. The results are consistent with intangibles disproportionately benefiting large firms and enabling them to scale up and increase market shares. We find nuanced implications of these new business models for competition – rising markups and reduced churning amongst the top firms, but falling industry prices. |
| Keywords: | Competition, Industry and entrepreneurship, Innovation |
| JEL: | E22 L1 L25 |
| Date: | 2021–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaaa:2021/12-en&r= |
| By: | Zhe Wang; Ryan Martin |
| Abstract: | In mathematical finance, Levy processes are widely used for their ability to model both continuous variation and abrupt, discontinuous jumps. These jumps are practically relevant, so reliable inference on the feature that controls jump frequencies and magnitudes, namely, the Levy density, is of critical importance. A specific obstacle to carrying out model-based (e.g., Bayesian) inference in such problems is that, for general Levy processes, the likelihood is intractable. To overcome this obstacle, here we adopt a Gibbs posterior framework that updates a prior distribution using a suitable loss function instead of a likelihood. We establish asymptotic posterior concentration rates for the proposed Gibbs posterior. In particular, in the most interesting and practically relevant case, we give conditions under which the Gibbs posterior concentrates at (nearly) the minimax optimal rate, adaptive to the unknown smoothness of the true Levy density. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.06567&r= |
| By: | Anthony A. DeFusco; Huan Tang; Constantine Yannelis |
| Abstract: | Information asymmetries are known in theory to lead to inefficiently low credit provision, yet empirical estimates of the resulting welfare losses are scarce. This paper leverages a randomized experiment conducted by a large fintech lender to estimate welfare losses arising from asymmetric information in the market for online consumer credit. Building on methods from the insurance literature, we show how exogenous variation in interest rates can be used to estimate borrower demand and lender cost curves and recover implied welfare losses. While asymmetric information generates large equilibrium price distortions, we find only small overall welfare losses, particularly for high-credit-score borrowers. |
| JEL: | D14 D82 G10 G23 G5 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29270&r= |
| By: | Avxentyev Nikolay (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Nazarov Vladimir (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sisigina Natalya (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus pandemic became the largest challenge for the domestic public health system. For the first time in modern history, healthcare organizers had to temporarily suspend the implementation of a major part of state guarantees ensuring free medical care to population, as well as practically all programs of health care strategic development. The extraordinary measures made it possible to avoid acute shortages of medical capacity for patients with COVID-19, however, at the same time reduced the availability of medical care for most other diseases. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, health care system |
| JEL: | I1 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1134&r= |
| By: | Ginger Zhe Jin; Zhentong Lu; Xiaolu Zhou; Lu Fang |
| Abstract: | In the world of omnichannel retail, some brands open a flagship store at online marketplaces, while others avert it. Focusing on a large e-commerce platform, we empirically study how flagship entry affects consumers, the platform, and various sellers on the platform. We find flagship entry may benefit consumers by expanding the choice set, by intensifying price competition within the entry brand, and by improving consumer perception for parts of the platform. In the meantime, flagship entry cannibalizes the sales of same-brand sellers, while other brands may gain as the buyer base expands on the platform. Counterfactual simulation suggests that flagship entry improves the gross merchandise value (GMV) of the platform but hurts existing sellers of the entry brand. On average, the effect on consumer welfare is more positive if the flagship entry is from a non-prominent brand than from a prominent brand, because consumers tend to lower their willingness to pay for individual sellers upon a prominent flagship entry. In hypothetical scenarios where flagship entry were accompanied by constraints on other same-brand sellers, the reduced competition would benefit the flagship store but hurt consumers. |
| JEL: | D4 L1 L8 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29239&r= |
| By: | Tsuyoshi Adachi and Takashi Kurihara (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Hun Chung (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Takashi Kurihara (School of Political Science and Economics, Tokai University) |
| Abstract: | There is now a growing consensus among democratic theorists that we should incorporate both ‘democratic deliberation’ and ‘aggregative voting’ into our democratic processes, where democratic deliberation precedes aggregating people’s votes. But how should the two democratic mechanisms of deliberation and voting interact? The question we wish to ask in this paper is which social choice rules are consistent with successful deliberation once it has occurred. For this purpose, we introduce a new axiom, which we call “Non-Negative Response toward Successful Deliberation (NNRD).” The basic idea is that if some individuals change their preferences toward other individuals’ preferences through successful deliberation, then the social choice rule should not make everybody who has successfully persuaded others through reasoned deliberation worse-off than what s/he would have achieved without deliberation. We prove an impossibility theorem that shows that there exists no aggregation rule that can simultaneously satisfy (NNRD) along with other mild axioms that reflect deliberative democracy’s core commitment to unanimous consensus and democratic equality. We offer potential escape routes: however, it is shown that each escape route can succeed only by compromising some core value of deliberative democracy. |
| Keywords: | Social Choice Theory; Deliberative Democracy; Deliberation; Aggregation; NNRD |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2110&r= |
| By: | Goitseone Khanie (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the key determinants of industrial growth in Botswana, using manufacturing sector value added as the proxy for industrial growth. It employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach using annual time series data for the period 1983 to 2015. Empirical results show that industrial growth is driven by financial sector development, human capital development, trade openness and foreign direct investment. Specifically, domestic credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP and secondary school enrolment ratio are found to be significantly related to manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP both in the long run and short run. While the relationship is limited to long run for total trade to GDP, it only exits in the short run for FDI net inflows. The study therefore recommends that policy makers should design and ensure proper implementation of financial sector development strategies that can help ease access to credit for manufacturing enterprises in the country. There is also a need for a holistic approach in the design and implementation of innovation and human resource development policies in order to provide a conducive environment for skills acquisition, innovation and technological advancements in the manufacturing sector. Trade policies and export promotion strategies should heighten productivity and value addition in the manufacturing sector, so as to make local firms internationally competitive. Finally, with regards to FDI, the Government of Botswana should create an environment that could entice multinationals to invest in the local manufacturing industry. This, however, should be coupled with protectionist policies to avoid crowding out local manufacturers and exposing them to foreign competition. |
| Keywords: | Industrialisation; Industrial growth; Manufacturing sector; Botswana |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bid:wpaper:73&r= |
| By: | Holger Breinlich (University of Surrey); Dennis Novy (University of Warwick); Joao M.C. Santos Silva (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | Gravity regressions are a common tool in the empirical international trade literature and serve an important function for many policy purposes. We study to what extent micro-level parameters can be recovered from gravity regressions estimated with aggregate data. We show that estimation of gravity equations in their original multiplicative form via Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) is more robust to aggregation than estimation of log-linearized gravity equations via ordinary least squares (OLS). In the leading case where regressors do not vary at the micro level, PPML estimates obtained with aggregate data have a clear interpretation as trade-weighted averages of micro-level parameters that is not shared by OLS estimates. However, when regressors vary at the micro level, using disaggregated data is essential because in this case not even PPML can recover parameters of interest. We illustrate our results with an application to Baier and Bergstrand’s (2007) influential study of the effects of trade agreements on trade flows. We examine how their findings change when estimation is performed at different levels of aggregation, and explore the consequences of aggregation for predicting the effects of trade agreements. |
| JEL: | C23 C43 F14 F15 F17 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0721&r= |
| By: | Naoki Awaya (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Yasuhiro Omori (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | An efficient particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is proposed for the rollingwindow estimation of state space models. The particles are updated to approximate the long sequence of posterior distributions as we move the estimation window. To overcome the wellknown weight degeneracy problem that causes the poor approximation, we introduce a practical double-block sampler with the conditional sequential Monte Carlo update where we choose one lineage from multiple candidates for the set of current state variables. Our proposed sampler is justified in the augmented space through theoretical discussions. In the illustrative examples, it is shown to be successful to accurately estimate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2021cf1175&r= |
| By: | Manuel Schechtl |
| Abstract: | The role of inheritances for wealth inequality has been frequently addressed. However, until recently, comparative data has been scarce. This paper compiles inheritance tax information from EY Worldwide Estate and Inheritance Tax Guide and combines it with microdata from the Luxembourg Wealth Study. The results indicate substantial differences in the tax base and the distributional potential of inheritance taxation across countries. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:lwswps:35&r= |
| By: | Miroslav Gabrovski; Victor Ortego-Marti (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside) |
| Abstract: | The co-movement of buyers and vacancies, i.e. the Beveridge Curve, is a key determinant of the cyclical properties of the housing market, as it determines the sign of the correlation between prices and key measures of liquidity such as vacancies (i.e.\ houses for sale), sales, and time-to-sell. As recent work has shown, to account for the core stylized facts of the housing market, search and matching models must be consistent with a positively correlated co-movement of buyers and vacancies, i.e.\ with an upward-sloping Beveridge Curve. This paper provides evidence that buyers and vacancies are positively correlated along the housing cycle, i.e. the Beveridge Curve on the housing market is upward sloping. Using data on vacancies and time-to-sell, we construct a series for buyers and estimate the slope of the Beveridge Curve. This approach requires only one minimal structural assumption: the existence of a matching function. Our findings confirm the positive relationship between buyers and vacancies over the business cycle, i.e. an upward sloping Beveridge Curve. In addition, we provide an estimate of the elasticity of vacancies with respect to buyers. We find that a one percent increase in vacancies is associated with around a two percent increase in buyers, confirming recent findings that buyers are more volatile than houses for sale. We hope that this estimate will help future researchers in this area. |
| Keywords: | Housing market; Search and matching; Beveridge Curve; Housing liquidity |
| JEL: | E2 E32 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202113&r= |
| By: | Jack Mountjoy; Brent R. Hickman |
| Abstract: | Students who attend different colleges in the U.S. end up with vastly different economic outcomes. We study the role of relative value-added across colleges within student choice sets in producing these outcome disparities. Linking high school, college, and earnings registries spanning the state of Texas, we identify relative college value-added by comparing the outcomes of students who apply to and are admitted by the same set of institutions, as this approach strikingly balances observable student potential across college treatments and renders our extensive set of covariates irrelevant as controls. Methodologically, we develop a framework for identifying and interpreting value-added under varying assumptions about match effects and sorting gains. Empirically, we estimate a relatively tight, though non-degenerate, distribution of relative value-added across the wide diversity of Texas public universities. Selectivity poorly predicts value-added within student choice sets, with only a fleeting selectivity earnings premium fading to zero after a few years in the labor market. Non-peer college inputs like instructional spending more strongly predict value-added, especially conditional on selectivity. Colleges that boost BA completion, especially in STEM majors, also tend to boost earnings. Finally, we probe the potential for (mis)match effects by allowing value-added schedules to vary by student characteristics. |
| JEL: | C21 H75 I23 I24 I26 J24 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29276&r= |
| By: | Lawrence Middleton; James Dodd; Simone Rijavec |
| Abstract: | Trading styles can be classified into either trend-following or mean-reverting. If the net trading style is trend-following the traded asset is more likely to move in the same direction it moved previously (the opposite is true if the net style is mean-reverting). The result of this is to introduce positive (or negative) correlations into the time series. We here explore the effect of these correlations on the long-run variance of the series through probabilistic models designed to explicitly capture the direction of trading. Our theoretical insights suggests that relative to random walk models of asset prices the long-run variance is increased under trend-following strategies and can actually be reduced under mean-reversal conditions. We apply these models to some of the largest US stocks by market capitalisation as well as high-frequency EUR/USD data and show that in both these settings, the ability to predict the asset price is generally increased relative to a random walk. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.08242&r= |
| By: | Tebogo B. Seleka (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of the ISPAAD input subsidy programme on cultivated area, output and productivity in Botswana’s subsistence economy, using panel data for five agricultural regions and the cropping seasons of 1978/79 to 2013/14. The paper also assesses programme cost effectiveness and draws implications for programme sustainability. Results show that the programme has induced increases of 78%, 87%, 40%, 168% and 46% in total acreage, cereal acreage, non-cereal acreage, cereal output and cereal yields, respectively. Therefore, the programme may have impacted positively on food security and welfare among subsistence households. However, it was found to not be cost effective in that the value of crops produced was equivalent to only 51% of public expenditure on land cultivation and seasonal inputs. Moreover, the ratio of the value of incremental cereals produced to programme expenditure on cereals was estimated at 26%. Therefore, public expenditure patterns suggest that ISPAAD’s positive impacts on crop production and food security will not be sustained beyond the programme implementation period. Some farmers would exit farming if production costs on land cultivation alone were to be privatised, rather than being borne by Government. The main conclusion is therefore that ISPAAD is not cost effective, and is fiscally and economically unsustainable. |
| Keywords: | Botswana, Cost effectiveness, Input subsidy programs, Subsistence economy |
| JEL: | D22 C33 Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bid:wpaper:78&r= |
| By: | Manuel Schechtl |
| Abstract: | Consumption taxes are a pivotal yet largely unaddressed policy tool that shape the income distribution and potentially thwart the redistributive goals of social policy. Previous research showed how consumption taxes can elevate inequality and poverty on the macro level. However, different household types might be affected differently due to diverging income positions and consumption needs. In this study, I aim to examine the change in income poverty across household types when accounting for consumption tax payments. To address my research interest, I draw on harmonised data from 11 OECD countries provided by the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS). I estimate implicit indirect tax rates from national accounts and investigate poverty rates of household types before and after subtracting consumption taxes. Using logistic regression models, I scrutinise the probability of falling under the poverty line due to consumption tax payments. The results indicate significant variation in poverty changes across household types. In most countries, people in large families and single parent households have a higher probability of falling under the poverty line when compared to couple households. Ultimately, results from linear probability models with country-fixed effects indicate that the consumption tax rate is positively associated with the elevation in poverty for single parents. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:807&r= |
| By: | Olivier SUDRIE |
| Abstract: | Au cours du demi-siècle passé, les économies des départements d’Outre-mer ont enregistré une croissance plus soutenue, en moyenne, qu’en métropole. Cette progression s’est traduite par une convergence des niveaux de PIB par tête : les écarts avec l’Hexagone, qui étaient encore de 70% au début des années 1970, ne sont plus aujourd’hui que de 40% environ.L’objectif principal de ce « papier de recherche » est de présenter un scénario tendanciel de croissance des économies ultramarines à l’horizon 2050 et de s’interroger sur la pérennité du processus de convergence. |
| Keywords: | Guadeloupe, Guyane française, La Réunion, Martinique, Mayotte, Nouvelle-Calédonie, Polynésie française, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2021–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr13077&r= |
| By: | Zubov Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | As of end 2020, there were 406 credit institutions in Russia against 442 a year earlier. Over the year, the number of operating credit institutions decreased by 36 (in 2019 – by 42). At the end of the year, he number of banks with a universal license came to 248 (at the beginning of the year – 266), with a basic one - 118 (at the beginning of the year – 136). In 2020, the number of non-bank credit institutions did not change and amounted to 40 (Fig. 65). At the end of the year, there were 379 credit institutions subject to liquidation procedures. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, banking sector, profit, capital, corporate loans, retail lending |
| JEL: | E41 E51 G28 G21 G24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1121&r= |
| By: | Abeliansky, Ana Lucia; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of declining population growth on automation. Theoretical considerations imply that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical implication on panel data for 60 countries over the time span 1993-2013. Regression estimates support the theoretical implication, suggesting that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with an approximately 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, different estimation methods, dynamic specifications, and changes with respect to the measurement of the stock of robots. |
| Keywords: | Automation, Industrial Robots, Demographic Change, Declining Fertility |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:8284&r= |
| By: | Benetti, Carlo |
| Abstract: | RESUMEN: El 16 de abril de 2015 el Colegio Académico de la Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (México), concedió a Carlo Benetti el título de Doctor Honoris Causa. El presente es su discurso en la ceremonia de remisión del diploma el 19 de junio de 2015. El profesor Benetti destacada la necesidad de mantener la enseñanza de la teoría económica contenida en las distintas escuelas de pensamiento. De esta manera, la historia del pensamiento económico aparece como un complemento indispensable de la investigación teórica actual. Así mismo, Benetti sintetiza los resultados de su propia investigación teórica, los cuales giran en torno a dos cuestiones: un análisis monetario y el estudio del desequilibrio económico. ABSTRACT: On April 16, 2015, the Colegio Académico of Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (México) granted to Carlo Benetti the title of Doctor Honoris Causa. This is his speech at the ceremony on June 19, 2015. Professor Benetti highlighted the need to keep the teaching of economic theory contained in the various schools of thought. In this way, the history of economic thought appears as an indispensable complement to current theoretical research. Likewise, Benetti synthesizes the results of his own theoretical research, which revolve around two questions: a monetary analysis and the study of economic disequilibrium. |
| Keywords: | Teoría económica, historia del pensamiento económico, análisis monetario, desequilibrio económico |
| JEL: | A10 A20 B00 |
| Date: | 2021–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000196:019621&r= |
| By: | Pianta, Mario; Reljic, Jelena |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the existence of a virtuous circle between industries’ employment quality, the ability to introduce new products, increase labour productivity and pay higher wages. We first present descriptive evidence of these trends in Europe. We then develop a simultaneous four-equation model investigating empirically four related variables: first, the rise of non-standard work as a proxy of low employment quality; second, the success of firms in translating their R&D efforts into new products and services; third, labour productivity growth driven by technological activities; fourth, wage increases and the factors supporting their rise. The model is tested empirically for 41 manufacturing and service sectors of six European economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK) over the period 1996-2016. The findings provide novel evidence of mutually reinforcing relationships, where higher employment quality complements technological activities, leading to more product innovations that increase productivity growth. In turn, the latter allows wage increases that contribute to higher employment quality, resulting in a good jobs-high innovation virtuous circle. |
| Keywords: | Non-standard work, Product Innovation, Labour productivity, Wages, Virtuous circles, European industries |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 J50 L6 L8 O31 O33 O52 |
| Date: | 2021–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109797&r= |
| By: | Federico Maria Ferrara (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Jörg Haas (Hertie School of Governance [Berlin]); Andrew Peterson (Poitiers UFR LL - Université de Poitiers - UFR Lettres et langues - Université de Poitiers, TECHNÉ - EA 6316 - Technologies Numériques pour l'éducation - Université de Poitiers); Thomas Sattler (UNIGE - Université de Genève) |
| Abstract: | The economic imbalances that characterize the world economy have unequally distributed costs and benefits. That raises the question how countries could run long-term external surpluses and deficits without significant opposition against the policies that generate them. We show that political discourse helps to secure public support for these policies and the resulting economic outcomes. First, a content analysis of 32,000 newspaper articles finds that the dominant interpretations of current account balances in Australia and Germany concur with very distinct perspectives: external surpluses are seen as evidence of competitiveness in Germany, while external deficits are interpreted as evidence of attractiveness for investments in Australia. Second, survey experiments in both countries suggest that exposure to these diverging interpretations has a causal effect on citizens' support for their country's economic strategy. Political discourse, thus, is crucial to provide the societal foundation of national growth strategies. |
| Keywords: | survey experiments,text analysis,trade,capital flows,ideas,public opinion |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02569351&r= |
| By: | Anne‐sophie Bruno (CHS - Centre d'histoire sociale des mondes contemporains - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nathalie Greenan (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); Jeremy Tanguy (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc) |
| Abstract: | Gender equality at work has become in recent years a priority for governments. In France, collective bargaining is the main lever to achieve progress on gender equality issues. In a two-tier bargaining framework, industries and firms are required by law to negotiate on the reduction of gender inequalities. Using firmlevel survey data on labor relations issues combined with administrative data, this paper seeks to better understand the dynamics of collective bargaining on gender equality at the firm level by questioning the role played by the gender mix. We find that gender diversity favors gender equality bargaining at the firm level. Underrepresentation and overrepresentation of women reduce the probability of firms negotiating an agreement on gender equality. The introduction of sanctions in the recent period has prompted low-feminized firms to negotiate more on gender equality but had little impact on highly feminized firms. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03345516&r= |
| By: | Ratang Sedimo; Kelesego Mmolainyane (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | This study seeks to understand institutional frameworks that exist in Botswana to protect the rights of ordinary shareholders. There is no literature on the subject matter in the context of Botswana; hence this study attempts to fill in the literature gap. The study uses a variety of data collection methods, such as semi-structured interviews, the Choppies case study and lessons learnt from other jurisdictions. Findings reveal that ordinary shareholders’ rights protection involves the use of institutional frameworks. In Botswana, existing frameworks are not adequate to protect ordinary shareholders’ rights. Implementation and enforcement of legal and regulatory instruments in Botswana is weak. Furthermore, the study observed that lack of adherence to corporate governance standards created room for the expropriation of ordinary shareholders of Choppies. Learning from other jurisdictions, the study suggests a review of the institutional frameworks in Botswana with an aim to protect shareholders’ rights, more especially the ordinary shareholders’ rights. |
| Keywords: | Ordinary Shareholders’ Rights; Institutional Framework; Botswana |
| JEL: | G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bid:wpaper:71&r= |
| By: | Aldar C-F. Chan |
| Abstract: | There are different interpretations of the terms "tokens" and "token-based systems" in the literature around blockchain and digital currencies although the distinction between token-based and account-based systems is well entrenched in economics. Despite the wide use of the terminologies of tokens and tokenisation in the cryptocurrency community, the underlying concept sometimes does not square well with the economic notions, or is even contrary to them. The UTXO design of Bitcoin exhibits partially characteristics of a token-based system and partially characteristics of an account-based system. A discussion on the difficulty to implement the economic notion of tokens in the digital domain, along with an exposition of the design of UTXO, is given in order to discuss why UTXO-based systems should be viewed as account-based according to the classical economic notion. Besides, a detailed comparison between UTXO-based systems and account-based systems is presented. Using the data structure of the system state representation as the defining feature to distinguish digital token-based and account-based systems is therefore suggested. This extended definition of token-based systems covers both physical and digital tokens while neatly distinguishing token-based and account-based systems. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.09294&r= |
| By: | Alyssa Carlson (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia) |
| Abstract: | For binary response models, the literature primarily addresses endogeneity by a control function approach assuming conditional independence (CF-CI). However, as the literature also notes, CF-CI implies conditions like homoskedasticity (of the latent error with respect to the instruments) that fail in many empirical settings. I propose an alternative approach that allows for heteroskedasticity, achieving identification with a conditional mean restriction. These identification results apply to a latent Gaussian error term with exibly parametrized heteroskedasticity. I propose a two step conditional maximum likelihood estimator and derive its asymptotic distribution. In simulations, the new estimator outperforms others when CF-CI fails and is fairly robust to distributional misspecification. |
| Keywords: | Binary choice model, Endogenous regressors, Control function, Heteroskedasticity |
| JEL: | C31 C35 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2113&r= |
| By: | Sam Desiere; Bart Cockx (-) |
| Abstract: | Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a triple difference methodology the hiring subsidy is shown to increase the job finding rate by 13% without any evidence of spill-over effects. This effect is driven by a positive effect on individuals with at least a bachelor’s degree. However, the hiring subsidy mainly created temporary short-lived employment: eligible jobseekers were not more likely to find employment that lasted at least twelve consecutive months than ineligible jobseekers. |
| Keywords: | hiring subsidies, long-term unemployment, prime-aged jobseekers, triple difference, temporary help agencies |
| JEL: | H22 J08 J18 J23 J38 J64 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:21/1025&r= |
| By: | Seth G. Benzell; Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Guillermo LaGarda; Victor Yifan Ye |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a 17-region, 3-skill group, overlapping generations, computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the global consequences of automation. Automation, modeled as capital- and high-skill biased technological change, is endogenous with regions adopting new technologies when profitable. Our approach captures and quantifies key macro implications of a range of foundational models of automation. In our baseline scenario, automation has a moderate effect on regional outputs and a small effect on world interest rates. However, it has a major impact on inequality, both wage inequality within regions and per capita GDP inequality across regions. We examine two policy responses to technological change -- mandating use of the advanced technology and providing universal basic income to share gains from automation. The former policy can raise a region's output, but at a welfare cost. The latter policy can transform automation into a win-win for all generations in a region. |
| JEL: | E1 E23 F43 O31 O33 O4 O41 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29220&r= |
| By: | Ana Lucia Abeliansky (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Klaus Prettner (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of declining population growth on automation. Theoretical considerations imply that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical implication on panel data for 60 countries over the time span 1993-2013. Regression estimates support the theoretical implication, suggesting that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with an approximately 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, different estimation methods, dynamic specifications, and changes with respect to the measurement of the stock of robots. |
| Keywords: | Automation, Industrial Robots, Demographic Change, Declining Fertility |
| JEL: | J11 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp315&r= |
| By: | Terry Sicular; Xiuna Yang; Bjorn Gustafsson |
| Abstract: | Defining the ‘global middle class’ as being neither poor nor rich in the developed world, we estimate the size of the global middle class in China and 33 other countries and analyze China’s expanding middle class in international perspective. China’s global middle class has grown rapidly and has been catching up with that in developed countries. By 2018 China’s global middle class constituted 25 percent of China’s population; in absolute size it was nearly double the size of the global middle class in the US and similar in size to that in Europe. Cross-country analysis of the relationship between the middle-class population share versus GDP per capita reveals an inverted-U pattern. China is not an outlier from the cross-country pattern, but the speed with which its middle-class has expanded is unusual. The only other countries with similarly large, rapid expansions of the middle class are transition economies. |
| JEL: | D31 O15 O53 P3 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:813&r= |
| By: | Fenner, Arved; Klein, Philipp; Mössinger, Carina |
| Abstract: | We investigate the replenishment of 102 asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by more than 1.7 million small- and medium-sized enterprise loans. Based on our extensive data set from 2012 to 2017 obtained from the first and only central loan-level repository for ABS in Europe, we reveal that loans added to securitized loan portfolios after the transactions' closing perform worse than loans that are part of the initial portfolio. On average, we find that loans added to securitized loan portfolios demonstrate a 0.42 percentage points higher probability of default. We additionally provide evidence that originators induce these performance differences since they exploit their information advantage by deliberately adding low-quality loans to securitized loan portfolios. This adverse behavior is mitigated by originators' reputation efforts, by increasing transparency in the ABS market, as for example per the European Central Bank's loan-level initiative, and most effectively by their interaction. |
| Keywords: | ABS,Agency Conflicts,Portfolio Replenishment,Securitization,SME |
| JEL: | G11 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:302021&r= |
| By: | Ela Ince |
| Abstract: | The thesis brings together three independent essays on the economics of innovation. I analyse the impact of competition on firm-level innovation (chapter 1) and the impact of different types of innovation on firm performance (chapter 2) looking at the top business R&D spenders of the world. I, then, switch my focus on researchers and analyse the determinants of brain drain in Europe (chapter 3).The first chapter is co-authored by Anabela Santos (European Commission) and Michele Cincera (ULB) and aims at assessing the impact of competition on firm-level innovation. The sample is composed of the world top corporate R&D spenders listed in the EU 2017 industrial R&D Scoreboard, and the analysis covers the years spanning from 2007 to 2016. We use an industry-year indicator, the inverse of the Lerner Index, as the indicator of competition for these firms that are leading in innovation efforts in the industries they are operating at the worldwide. R&D expenditures are used as the proxy for innovation. Model is estimated using two-stage least squares, to control for potential endogeneity of the competition indicator. Results confirm the existence of an inverted-U shaped relationship between competition and innovation. Further analysis is undertaken splitting the overall firm sample into services and manufacturing sectors according to technology and knowledge intensities and into the country of headquarters. We validate the inverted-U shaped relationship between competition and innovation for the firms in medium-high- and high-tech manufacturing sectors whereas we do not observe this impact for the firms operating in medium-low- and low-tech manufacturing sectors nor in services sectors. We also find differences in innovation behaviour of firms headquartered in the EU, US, Japan and China. While the inverted-U shaped relationship is highly pronounced for the Chinese firms, we find the U shaped impact of competition on the innovation of the EU and Japanese firms.The second chapter brings together firm-level R&D spending information with patent information, and aims at investigating the impact of different types of patented inventions on firm output growth performance controlling for R&D spending and other firm financials. The firm sample is sourced from the EU 2014 Industrial R&D Scoreboard that brings together the leading private sector R&D investors of the world. The analysis covers the years from 2005 to 2010. I consider forward-looking patent value indicators of breakthrough and general innovation using 7-year citation window, and backward-looking patent value indicators of originality and radicalness in innovation activities. Firm performance is estimated through a Cobb-Douglas production function. I allow for non-linearity in the relationship between innovation strategy and firm performance, and investigate sectoral heterogeneity looking at the impact in health industries and ICT producers. Models are estimated using two-stage least squares and generalised method of moments to control for potential endogeneity of innovation indicators. The findings confirm certain non-linearities and sectoral heterogeneities in the relationships between the different types of innovation and firm performance. ICT producers are growing with breakthrough innovations, generality and novelty in innovation process supporting the general-purpose technology feature of ICT. I, however, do not find a positive impact of technological breakthroughs nor a specific trend of generality and novelty in innovation process on productivity of pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms in the sample.The third chapter is co-authored by Christophe Colassin (ULB) and Michele Cincera (ULB) and aims at analysing the determinants of brain drain in Europe where there exists unbalances and polarisation between the States in terms of attractiveness for researchers despite the common policies and practices put in place by the European Union. The information about the mobility outflows are sourced from Centre for Science and Technology Studies and concern the year 2019. In order to analyse the macroeconomic determinants of mobility of researchers, the chapter brings together information from various data sources that attribute country-level values to the potential determinants of mobility outflows. We use a gravity model framework to detect quantitatively the pull and push factors of researchers' mobility including the 28 EU Member states in the time of analysis, and 3 additional Schengen countries, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland. In addition to the cultural and geographic proximity, we find that a country’s researcher base, entrepreneurial opportunities, knowledge intensity, public R&D spending and international collaborations increase the mobility of researchers within Europe whereas non-academic placements of researchers and the perception of virtual mobility as an alternative decrease the mobility. Researchers from countries with attractive research systems, more innovative private sector and more female researchers are found to be more mobile, whereas, the ones with higher GDP growth rates are less. We find that satisfaction with the recruitment process and the salary levels are decreasing factors for the mobility outflows. Finally, while fixed-term contracts in academia are found to be a factor that decreases the attractiveness; satisfaction with recruitment process, existence of the top R&D spending enterprises in the economy, and the freedom of academic exchange and dissemination are the factors that increases the attractiveness of a country for mobility inflows. |
| Keywords: | Competition; Innovation; R&D; Productivity; Brain Drain |
| Date: | 2021–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/331968&r= |
| By: | Pietro Saggese; Alessandro Belmonte; Nicola Dimitri; Angelo Facchini; Rainer Böhme |
| Abstract: | We mine the leaked history of trades on Mt. Gox, the dominant Bitcoin exchange from 2011 to early 2014, to detect the triangular arbitrage activity conducted within the platform. The availability of user identifiers per trade allows us to focus on the historical record of 440 investors, detected as arbitrageurs, and consequently to describe their trading behavior. We begin by showing that a considerable difference appears between arbitrageurs when indicators of their expertise are taken into account. In particular, we distinguish between those who conducted arbitrage in a single or in multiple markets: using this element as a proxy for trade ability, we find that arbitrage actions performed by expert users are on average non profitable when transaction costs are accounted for, while skilled investors conduct arbitrage at a positive and statistically significant premium. Next, we show that specific trading strategies, such as splitting orders or conducting arbitrage non aggressively, are further indicators of expertise that increase the profitability of arbitrage. Most importantly, we exploit withinuser (across hours and markets) variation and document that expert users make profits on arbitrage by reacting quickly to plausible exogenous variations on the official exchange rates. We present further evidence that such differences are chiefly due to a better ability of the latter in incorporating information, both on the transactions costs and on the exchange rates volatility, eventually resulting in a better timing choice at small time scale intervals. Our results support the hypothesis that arbitrageurs are few and sophisticated users |
| Keywords: | Arbitrage, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency Exchanges, Financial Econometrics, Behavior of Economic Agents |
| JEL: | C58 D53 G11 G40 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:860&r= |
| By: | Mikio Kuwayama (Research Fellow of Kobe University Research Institute for Economics and Business (RIEB) and Managing Director of the Japan Association of Latin America and the Caribbean (JALAC).) |
| Abstract: | China has displaced Japan as the most important Asian trading partner for the Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) region since the turn of the century. However, this rather pessimistic view of the Japan-LAC commercial relationship based on bilateral trade statistics drastically changes when business activities of Japanese subsidiaries and affiliates (S&As) operating in the LAC region are considered. Extrapolating from the annual surveys of “Basic Survey on Overseas Business Activities” conducted by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), this paper brings to light highly globalized and multi-faceted business operations by Japanese multinational companies operating in LAC, the scale of which goes far beyond the magnitude indicated by Japan’s official trade and investment statistics. Notably, a significant part of their global business is exported to, or sourced from, third countries, which significantly underestimates the scale of trade and investment by these S&As in the LAC region. At the same time, almost half of their sales are directed to domestic/local markets of LAC countries, whereas sales back to Japan are minimal. This paper also evaluates the Japanese S&As performance in LAC with that in other regions (the ASEAN countries in particular), with respect to: 1) industrial/sectoral distribution of their sales and procurements, 2) export orientation, and 3) capital investment, R&D expenditure, and ordinary profit. The paper also points out several distinctive features of S&As business in Brazil and Mexico, their two major host countries in the region. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2021-18&r= |
| By: | Baah-Boateng, William; Twum, Eric; Twumasi Baffour, Priscilla |
| Abstract: | The relevance of social networks sometimes referred to in Ghana as “whom you know” in the job acquisition process and its effect on labour market outcomes (wages, job satisfaction and job tenure) have been highlighted by a number of studies. Most of these studies have concentrated largely on monetary post-hire outcomes with limited research on non-pecuniary aspects. Using a cox proportional hazard model to analyse a survey of 150 formal sector workers in the services sector in Accra, the study observes that first, jobs acquired through the help of workers’ friends and relatives did not last long. The first jobs could be a stepping-stone for better jobs. This effect is however not statistically significant after controlling for individual and firm-level covariates. Conclusions are however made with caution due to the small sample size and the nature of respondents’ majority of whom are highly educated and relatively younger. Future research can explore further social networks and labour markets particularly in Africa where familiarity and identical ethnic bonds are visible and stronger. |
| Keywords: | Social networks, Job tenure, Cox proportional hazard model. |
| JEL: | J63 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109688&r= |
| By: | Liu, Y.; Jiang, Z.; Guo, B. |
| Abstract: | Targeting on improving the efficiency of power generation, China announced its plan to reform the electricity wholesale market. A focal point of the wholesale market reform is to introduce a stable and reliable electricity spot market. Using Guangdong's spot market pilot operations as a case study, this article becomes the first which uses ex-post market data to assess the efficacy of China's electricity spot market. To investigate the stability of the spot market, we estimate the relationship between prices and demand. We find the electricity supply curve to be non-linear and convex, suggesting the needs to invest more thermal capacity to stabilise the spot market prices (SMPs). To investigate the reliability of the spot market, we first estimate the market distortion caused by a price floor on the SMPs, and then examine whether local market power exists. The price floor on the SMPs resulted in a welfare transfer from consumers to producers, the monetary value of which equals to 1.3% of the tradable value of the day-ahead market. We also find evidence of local market power in the east of Guangdong, suggesting the necessity of investing more power lines connecting the west to the east. Finally, policy implications are provided. |
| Keywords: | China power market reform, market failures, local market power, electricity spot market |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 D61 |
| Date: | 2021–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2165&r= |
| By: | Pietro Saggese; Alessandro Belmonte; Nicola Dimitri; Angelo Facchini; Rainer B\"ohme |
| Abstract: | We mine the leaked history of trades on Mt. Gox, the dominant Bitcoin exchange from 2011 to early 2014, to detect the triangular arbitrage activity conducted within the platform. The availability of user identifiers per trade allows us to focus on the historical record of 440 investors, detected as arbitrageurs, and consequently to describe their trading behavior. We begin by showing that a considerable difference appears between arbitrageurs when indicators of their expertise are taken into account. In particular, we distinguish between those who conducted arbitrage in a single or in multiple markets: using this element as a proxy for trade ability, we find that arbitrage actions performed by expert users are on average non-profitable when transaction costs are accounted for, while skilled investors conduct arbitrage at a positive and statistically significant premium. Next, we show that specific trading strategies, such as splitting orders or conducting arbitrage non aggressively, are further indicators of expertise that increase the profitability of arbitrage. Most importantly, we exploit within-user (across hours and markets) variation and document that expert users make profits on arbitrage by reacting quickly to plausible exogenous variations on the official exchange rates. We present further evidence that such differences are chiefly due to a better ability of the latter in incorporating information, both on the transactions costs and on the exchange rates volatility, eventually resulting in a better timing choice at small time scale intervals. Our results support the hypothesis that arbitrageurs are few and sophisticated users. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10958&r= |
| By: | Susan Athey; Peter J. Bickel; Aiyou Chen; Guido Imbens; Michael Pollmann |
| Abstract: | We develop new semiparametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on a setting where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects are small, where sample sizes are large and where assignment is completely random. This setting is of particular interest in recent experimentation in tech companies. We propose using parametric models for the treatment effects, as opposed to parametric models for the full outcome distributions. This leads to semiparametric models for the outcome distributions. We derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for this setting, and propose efficient estimators. In the case with a constant treatment effect one of the proposed estimators has an interesting interpretation as a weighted average of quantile treatment effects, with the weights proportional to (minus) the second derivative of the log of the density of the potential outcomes. Our analysis also results in an extension of Huber's model and trimmed mean to include asymmetry and a simplified condition on linear combinations of order statistics, which may be of independent interest. |
| JEL: | C01 C1 C14 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29242&r= |
| By: | Marjolein E. Verhulst; Philippe Debie; Stephan Hageboeck; Joost M. E. Pennings; Cornelis Gardebroek; Axel Naumann; Paul van Leeuwen; Andres A. Trujillo-Barrera; Lorenzo Moneta |
| Abstract: | We introduce a methodology to visualize the limit order book (LOB) using a particle physics lens. Open-source data-analysis tool ROOT, developed by CERN, is used to reconstruct and visualize futures markets. Message-based data is used, rather than snapshots, as it offers numerous visualization advantages. The visualization method can include multiple variables and markets simultaneously and is not necessarily time dependent. Stakeholders can use it to visualize high-velocity data to gain a better understanding of markets or effectively monitor markets. In addition, the method is easily adjustable to user specifications to examine various LOB research topics, thereby complementing existing methods. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.04812&r= |
| By: | Adena, Maja; Huck, Steffen |
| Abstract: | Some companies engage in mass fundraising in addition to their core business. Via a corporate social responsibility (CSR) channel this may increase sales. However, ask avoidance, if present, could imply that fundraising activities may harm a company's core business. We examine how asking for donations affects ticket sales of a publicly owned leading opera company. In two large scale randomized controlled trials with over 50,000 opera visitors, who are asked to donate for an opera-organized social youth project, we find that donations can crowd out ticket expenditure during a campaign. But for the longer run we observe a precisely estimated null effect. |
| Keywords: | Charitable giving,field experiments,ask avoidance,corporate social responsibility |
| JEL: | C93 D64 D12 L21 M14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbeoc:spii2019304r&r= |
| By: | Stephen K. Dimnwobi (Anambra state, Nigeria); Chukwunonso Ekesiobi (Anambra state, Nigeria); Chekwube V. Madichie (Pan-Atlantic University, Lagos, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The nexus of population dynamics and environmental degradation has been discussed widely in the extant literature. Most related studies have utilized carbon emission as a proxy of environmental quality. However, carbon emission does not capture the multidimensional nature of environmental degradation. To fill this gap, this study utilized the ecological footprint to capture environmental degradation because it is a more dynamic environmental quality measure. The paper examines the population-environmental degradation hypothesis for five populous African countries (DR Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Africa and Tanzania) using panel information from 1990-2019. The Cross-sectionally Augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) was employed to assess the relationship among the data – ecological footprint per capita (ECFP), population growth rate (POPG), population density (POPD), urban population growth rate (URBN), age structure of the population (AGES), per capita GDP growth rate (PGDP), energy consumption (ENEC), and trade openness (TRAD). The findings of the study revealed that POPG, POPD, AGES, PGDP, ENEC and TRAD increase environmental degradation. Urbanization (URBN) has no significant influence on environmental degradation in the selected African countries. The study concludes with policy prescriptions geared towards addressing population expansion and improving environmental quality. |
| Keywords: | Population dynamics, Environmental degradation, Africa |
| JEL: | C40 J11 O10 Q50 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:21/047&r= |