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on Islamic Finance |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The authorities responded quickly and decisively to the COVID-19 crisis and the economy is recovering. COVID-19 cases are well below the 2020 peak and vaccination is progressing. The exit from the remaining COVID-related policy support needs to be carefully managed and the Vision 2030 reform agenda continued. |
| Keywords: | Policy support measure; GDP estimate; policy support; totaling SDR; financial asset; employment support program; Oil; COVID-19; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Income; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific |
| Date: | 2021–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/149&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) reviews the Sudan Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for the period 2021–2023. The PRSP was prepared by the Government of Sudan, drawing on lessons learned from the implementation of the 2012 interim poverty reduction strategy paper (I-PRSP).1 The PRSP was approved by the Council of Ministers on May 11, 2021. The government submitted the PRSP to IDA and the IMF on May 12, 2021 to fulfill the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative’s poverty reduction strategy requirement. |
| Keywords: | member country's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper; copyright page; objective of the JSAN; advisory note; government ministry; Poverty reduction strategy; Poverty reduction; Poverty reduction and development; Africa; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/145&r= |
| By: | Davillas, A; Burlinson, A.; Liu, H-H. |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study to explore the association between fuel poverty and a set of well-being outcomes: lifesatisfaction, self-reported health measures and more objectively measured biomarker data. Over and above the conventional income–fuel cost indicators, we also use more proximal heating deprivation indicators. We create and draw upon a set of composite indicators that concomitantly capture (the lack of) affordability and thermal comfort. Depending on which fuel deprivation indicator is used, we find heterogeneous associations between fuel poverty and our well-being outcomes. Employing combined fuel deprivation indicators, which takes into account the income–fuel cost balance and more proximal perceptions of heating adequacy, reveals the presence of more pronounced associations with life satisfaction and fibrinogen, one of our biological health measures. The presence of these strong associations would have been less pronounced or masked when using separately each of the components of our composite fuel deprivation indicators as well as in the case of self-reported generic measures of physical health. Lifestyle and chronic health conditions plays a limited role in attenuating our results, while material deprivation partially, but not fully, attenuates our associations between fuel deprivation and well-being. These results remain robust when bounding analysis is employed to test the potential confounding role of unobservables. Our analysis suggests that composite fuel deprivation indicators may be useful energy policy instruments for uncovering the underlining mechanism via which fuel poverty may get “under the skin†. |
| Keywords: | fuel poverty; biomarkers; health; well-being; |
| JEL: | I12 I31 I32 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:21/13&r= |
| By: | Askandarou Diallo,; Jacolin Luc,; Isabelle Rabaud. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between FDI and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), using a sample of 40 countries over 1980-2017. To disentangle short term from long-term dynamics, our empirical analysis is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Full Effects (DFE) models. We find that FDI has little effect on private investment in the short run but significant crowding-in effects in the long-run: a one percentage point increase of the share of FDI in GDP leads to a 0.29% rise in private investment, in the long run. Our results also show that FDI interacts with public domestic investment to boost these positive effects. Finally, we show that the impact of FDI on domestic private investment is stronger in non-natural resource exporting diversified countries as opposed to non-diversified commodity exporters. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development, Domestic Investment, FDI, Crowding-in/Crowding-out Effects. |
| JEL: | G11 O11 O16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:816&r= |
| By: | Masahiko Tsutsumi (Institute of Economic Research Center for Intergenerational Studies, Hitotsubashi University); Masahito Ambashi (Waseda University, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Asuna Okubo (Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting LLC) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at evaluating the economic impacts of the various Indonesian free trade agreement (FTA) strategies in enhancing export-led growth. The potential impact of abolishing tariffs on three key sectors or commodities – (i) oil seeds, vegetable oils, and fats (VegOil); (ii) fishery and processed foods (FisheryPFD); and (iii) textile and apparel products (TextWapp) – with three trading partners – the European Union (EU28), members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and India – is calculated using a computable general equilibrium model. To explore the long-term influence, we also take into account capital deepening and technological spillovers induced by trade. We derive the following implications from the exercise. First, amongst the three key sectors or commodities, TextWapp generates the largest spillover effects in the economy, as it uses more intermediary inputs. By contrast, although Indonesia has a comparative advantage in VegOil, that sector does not create large spillover effects in the economy. Second, amongst the three trading partners, it would be best to liberalise trade barriers further with the EU28 and India since India would bring gains to Indonesia by correcting a large price distortion in VegOil, while the EU28 would do so through TextWapp as well as VegOil. Since the initial trade volume of the GCC with Indonesia is not large, we might underestimate gains from trade with that region. Finally, the economic merits of abolishing tariffs are generated primarily through improvement of resource allocation in the affected countries. Improved resource allocation generates additional income, which increases imports. Without these income effects, Indonesia can only increase its exports via substitution effects. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, tariff, trade policy, computable general equilibrium model |
| JEL: | F13 F17 F51 O24 |
| Date: | 2021–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2019-16&r= |
| By: | Diane Coyle (The Productivity Institute, Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge); Abi Adams-Prassl (University of Oxford); Jeremias Adams-Prassl (University of Oxford) |
| Keywords: | productivity, gig economy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:ppaper:001&r= |
| By: | Saule Baurzhan (Eastern Mediteranean University); Glenn Jenkins (Queen's University); Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams (Nanchang University) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the economic benefits of 57 World Bank Group-sponsored hydropower dam plant investments. Hydropower dams are among the main sources for producing electricity and the largest renewable source for power generation throughout the world. Hydropower dams are often a lower-cost option for power generation in Clean Energy Transition for addressing global climate change. Despite its conspicuous aspects, constructing hydropower dams has been controversial. Considering the World Bank’s long history as the largest hydropower development financier, this study investigates its performance in supporting hydropower dams. The outcomes of this study apply to the wider hydropower development community. Of the projects in this study, 70% experienced a cost overrun, and more than 80% of projects experienced time overruns, incurring potential additional costs as a result. Despite the high cost and time overruns, this hydropower portfolio of dams produced a present value of net economic benefits by 2016 of over half a trillion USD. Based on our findings, the evaluated hydropower portfolio helped avoid over a billion tonnes of CO2 for an estimated global environmental benefit valued at nearly USD 350 billion. The projects’ additional environmental benefits raise the real rate of return from 15.4% to 17.3%. The implication for hydropower developers is that the projects’ assessment should consider cost and time overrun and factor them into the project-planning contingency scenarios. There is a considerable benefit for developing countries to exploit their hydropower resources if they can be developed according to industry practices and international standards. The case for developing hydropower may be stronger when considering its climate benefits. The net economic benefits of hydropower can be even higher if there is a greater effort to manage cost and time overruns. |
| Keywords: | investment appraisal, carbon emissions, cost overrun, hydropower, dams, World Bank |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1463&r= |
| By: | Filomena, Mattia (Marche Polytechnic University); Picchio, Matteo (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a meta-analysis on the effects of retirement on health. We select academic papers published between 2000 and 2021 studying the impact of retirement on physical and mental health, self-assessed general health, healthcare utilization and mortality. Among 275 observations from 85 articles, 28% (13%) find positive (negative) effects of retirement on health outcomes. Almost 60% of the observations do not provide statistically significant findings. Using meta-regression analysis, we checked for the presence of publication bias after distinguishing among different journal subject areas and, once correcting for it, we find that the average effect of retirement on health outcomes is small and barely significant. We apply model averaging techniques to explore possible sources of heterogeneity and our results suggest that the different estimated effects can be explained by the differences in both health measurements and retirement schemes. |
| Keywords: | retirement, health, meta-analysis, meta-regression, publication bias |
| JEL: | I10 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14602&r= |
| By: | Parsons, Sam (University College London); Bryson, Alex (University College London); Sullivan, Alice (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Using data from two British birth cohorts born in 1958 and 1970 we investigate the impact of teenage conduct problems on subsequent employment prospects through to age 42. We find teenagers with conduct problems went on to spend fewer months both in paid employment, and in employment, education and training (EET) between age 17 and 42 than comparable teenagers who did not experience conduct problems. Employment and EET disadvantages were greatest among those with severe behavioural problems. The 'gap' in time spent in employment or EET by conduct problem status was similar for men and women across cohorts, with only a small part of the gap being attenuated by differences in social background, individual characteristics and educational attainment in public examination at age 16. We discuss the implications of our findings. |
| Keywords: | education, training, disadvantage, educational attainment, labour market, employment, behavioural problems, Rutter |
| JEL: | I12 J20 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14616&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Singapore entered the COVID-19 pandemic with sizable policy space and robust economic policy frameworks, yet facing longer-term challenges. The economy has been severely impacted by the pandemic, but a bold, comprehensive, and coordinated policy package has helped cushion the economic fallout. Following a record contraction in the first half of 2020, activity has rebounded, and growth is projected to strengthen to 6 percent in 2021, underpinned by a recovery in domestic demand and a positive contribution from net exports. The uncertainty surrounding the outlook is larger than usual. |
| Keywords: | currency speculation; Singapore authorities; bond issuance; U.S. dollar; headline inflation; green finance market; COVID-19; Inflation; Financial soundness indicators; International investment position; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/156&r= |
| By: | BIANCHI, ANA MARIA AFONSO FERREIRA |
| Abstract: | Book review of Michele Alacevich´s recently published book, "Albert O. Hirschman: An intellectual biography", CUP, 2021. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:egnsp&r= |
| By: | Masahito Ambashi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | ASEAN member states (AMS) need to greatly enhance their ‘innovation capability’ to achieve technology-driven sustainable development, and there still remains much room to do so. AMS governments should function as active agents in controlling and coordinating systematic innovation policies, including R&D incentives, human resources development, and industrial policies. In this sense, government initiatives matter for innovation in ASEAN where industrialisation has just started based on technology and innovation. Since the problem most AMS face is the absence or functional failure of the government organisation in terms of policymaking processes, it is important to give responsibility for innovation policy to preferably a single body in a government organisation. This government body should hold unified authority with strong leadership under government control to lead and coordinate innovation policies developed across various departments from a holistic viewpoint. Furthermore, AMS may well be able to set goals of R&D intensity through government initiatives, which are expected to motivate AMS governments to secure sufficient budgets for steadily implementing necessary policies. |
| Date: | 2019–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2019-03&r= |
| By: | Facundo Alvaredo (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anthony B Atkinson (NUFFIELD COLLEGE - Nuffield College - University of Oxford [Oxford]); Thomas Blanchet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lucas Chancel (IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Luis Estevez Bauluz (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Matthew Fisher-Post (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ignacio Flores (WIL - World Inequality Lab); Bertrand Garbinti (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Clara Martínez-Toledano (WIL - World Inequality Lab); Marc Morgan (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Neef Theresa; Thomas Piketty (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anne-Sophie Robilliard (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme); Emmanuel Saez (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Gabriel Zucman (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Li Yang |
| Date: | 2021–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03307584&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Although Timor-Leste has made considerable progress in many areas since its independence in 2002, it faces significant medium-term challenges. The nation has pressing development needs, young institutions, and is highly dependent on oil. Oil revenues from active fields, which have been the main source of funding for government spending, are drying up. The non-oil private sector economy remains underdeveloped and lack of good jobs and high youth unemployment are serious concerns. |
| Keywords: | Timorese authorities; oil GDP; WTI crude; government coalition; private sector development; Oil; Debt sustainability analysis; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/152&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Germany’s economy contracted by just under 5 percent in 2020, outperforming most European peers. But renewed waves of infections and associated lockdowns caused economic activity to plunge again in the first quarter of this year. While the pace of mass vaccination has picked up and the economy has started to reopen, the recovery path is beset with risks, particularly with respect to the progress of the pandemic and supply shortages in major industries. The authorities have maintained appropriately accommodative fiscal and financial policies, and most measures supporting households and firms have been extended through 2021. |
| Keywords: | money market rate; financial asset; investment initiative; government action; article IV consultation discussion; transparency policy; headline inflation; COVID-19; Income; Commercial banks; Cooperative banks; Global; Europe |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/153&r= |
| By: | Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The zero-interest green loan (ZIGL) programme allows French homeowners to finance home energy retrofits at zero interest rate. Launched in 2009 in the wake of the Grenelle de l'environnement, the programme has strongly underperformed expectations. As the Citizen Convention for Climate now recommends extending the programme, we examine the reasons for the gap between predicted and realized ZIGLs. We find it to be best explained by a lack of profitability for banks. As a consequence, banks exploit consumers' lack of information about the programme to sell them more conventional financial products. In contrast, the role played by other frequently-cited causes, such as high transaction costs and a low interest rate environment, seems to be modest. We conclude that the efficiency of the programme could be improved by assigning loan issuance to a public bank. |
| Abstract: | L'éco-prêt à taux zéro (EPTZ) permet aux propriétaires de logements de financer des travaux de rénovation énergétique sans payer d'intérêts. Lancée en 2009, cette politique phare du Grenelle de l'environnement n'a pas rencontré le succès escompté. Aujourd'hui, la Convention citoyenne pour le climat (2020) propose de généraliser l'EPTZ. Pour juger de l'opportunité d'une telle mesure, nous nous interrogeons sur les causes possibles de l'écart entre le nombre d'EPTZ initialement prédit et effectivement réalisé. Nous identifions comme cause principale un manque d'attractivité du dispositif pour les banques. Celles-ci mettent en oeuvre des stratégies d'évitement qui prospèrent sur une forme de désintérêt des ménages. D'autres causes fréquemment avancées, comme les coûts administratifs ou l'environnement de taux d'intérêt faibles, semblent jouer un rôle moins important. Nous concluons que l'efficacité du dispositif pourrait être améliorée en transférant l'octroi des prêts à une banque publique. |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03278386&r= |
| By: | Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago); Loughlin, Colleen P. (Compass Lexecon) |
| Abstract: | The recent Supreme Court decision NCAA vs Alston (June 2021) has heightened interest in the benefits and costs of participation in sports for student athletes. Anecdotes about the exploitation of student athletes were cited in the opinion. This paper uses panel data for two different cohorts that follow students from high school through college and into their post-school pursuits to examine the generality of these anecdotes. On average, student athletes' benefit- often substantially so—in terms of graduation, post-collegiate employment, and earnings. Benefits in terms of social mobility for disadvantaged and minority students are substantial, contrary to the anecdotes in play in the media and in the courts. |
| Keywords: | sport economics, social mobility, returns to education |
| JEL: | Z2 I32 I26 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14584&r= |
| By: | Kurmann, André (Drexel University); Lalé, Etienne (Université du Québec à Montréal); Ta, Lien (Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an explosion of research using real-time establishment-level data. One key challenge when working with this data is how to take into account the effects of business openings and closings. In this paper, we address this challenge by matching small business establishment records from Homebase with information on business activity from Google, Facebook,and Safegraph to distinguish business closings and openings from other sample exits and entry. Weshow that this distinction is critical to benchmark the data to pre-pandemic administrative records and estimate the effects of the pandemic on small business activity. We find four key results: (1)employment of small businesses in four of the hardest hit service sectors contracted more severely in the beginning of the pandemic than employment of larger businesses, but small businesses also rebounded more strongly and have on average recovered a higher share of job losses than larger businesses; (2)closings account for 70% of the initial decline in small business employment, but two thirds of closed businesses have reopened and the annual rate of closings is just slightly higher than prior to the pandemic; (3) new openings of small businesses constitute an important driver of the recovery but the annual rate of new openings is only about half the rate one year earlier (4) small business employment was affected less negatively in counties with early access to loans from the Paycheck Protection Program(PPP) and in counties where Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) was more generous relative to pre-pandemic earnings of likely recipients, with business closings accounting for a large part of these two effects. The results dispel the popular notion that small businesses continue to suffer more from the pandemic than larger businesses. At the same time, our analysis suggests that PPP and FPUC helped to significantly mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic for small businesses by, respectively, alleviating financial constraints and stimulating demand for local services. |
| Keywords: | Small business activity; Sample turnover versus business openings/closings; Matchingrecords; COVID-19; Paycheck Protection Program; Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation |
| JEL: | E01 E24 E32 E60 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2021_015&r= |
| By: | Asmaa Chouhaibi (Université Mohammed V) |
| Abstract: | The occurrence of the pandemic (Covid 19), caused a negative shock on world economic growth which exceeds in intensity that of the economic crisis of 2008, according to the International Monetary Fund in 2020. In Africa, the rapid spread of Covid 19 has had negative effects on all spheres of sustainable development. In this context, the Moroccan economy and the ECOWAS zone have not been excluded from the pandemic either at the health level or at the level of sustainable development. This work analyzes the impact of Covid 19 on Foreign Direct Investments between Morocco and ECOWAS, given that Morocco has now become the 2nd investor in Africa, after South Africa, and the first in Africa from West. This document will present, on the one hand, a theoretical analysis, of which we will describe the pandemic situation in West Africa with quantified data, then the presentation of ECOWAS, and, on the other hand, an empirical analysis which will consist of studying first the inventory of FDI between Morocco and ECOWAS, for a period before and during the pandemic, then will present an econometric study in order to measure the impact of the pandemic on FDI between the two partners in the coming years. |
| Abstract: | La survenance de la pandémie (Covid 19) a provoqué un choc négatif sur la croissance économique mondiale qui dépasse en intensité celle de la crise économique de 2008, selon le Fonds Monétaire International en 2020. En Afrique, la propagation rapide de la Covid 19 a eu des effets négatifs sur toutes les sphères du développement durable. Dans ce cadre, l'économie marocaine et la zone de la CEDEAO n'ont pas été exclues de la pandémie que soit au niveau sanitaire, ou bien au niveau du développement durable. Le présent travail, analyse l'impact de la Covid 19 sur les Investissements Directs Etrangers entre le Maroc et la CEDEAO, vu que le Maroc est devenu aujourd'hui le 2e investisseur en Afrique, après l'Afrique Sud, et le premier en Afrique de l'Ouest. Ce document présentera d'une part une analyse théorique, dont on va décrire la situation pandémique en Afrique de l'Ouest avec des données chiffrées, ensuite la présentation de la CEDEAO, et d'autre part une analyse empirique qui consistera à étudier d'abord l'état des lieux des IDE entre le Maroc et la CEDEAO, et ce pour une période avant et au cours de la pandémie, ensuite présentera une étude économétrique en vue de mesurer l'impact de la pandémie sur les IDE entre les deux partenaires pour les années à venir. |
| Keywords: | Morocco,ECOWAS,West Africa,Pandemic,Covid-19,Investment,Investissements,Maroc,CEDEAO,Afrique,Afrique de l'Ouest,Covid 19,Pandémie |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319154&r= |
| By: | Bart van Ark (Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester); Klaas de Vries (The Conference Board); Abdul Erumban (University of Groningen) |
| Keywords: | productivity, pandemic, labour reallocation, digital transformation, work-from-home |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:007&r= |
| By: | Brilyawan, Kristian |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure development in Indonesia has been going on for a long time and at a fairly large cost. The contribution of infrastructure development is quite significant in increasing economic growth, but there are still problems faced by our country. This study aims to determine the influence and contribution of economic and social infrastructure to economic growth in Indonesia, which is represented by Gross Regional Domestic Product per capita. Panel data regression analysis is used to see the magnitude of the influence of infrastructure on economic growth in Indonesia. The infrastructure studied includes: length of roads, distributed electricity, clean water that is distributed, health described by Life Expectancy (AHH), and education described by the Average Length of School (RLS). The analysis was carried out using panel data with a random effect model in 34 provinces in Indonesia and over a period of 5 years (2015-2019). The results obtained are that roads and education have a significant effect on economic growth. Electricity, clean water, and health do not have a significant effect.economic infrastructure, social infrastructure, economic growth |
| Date: | 2021–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:tvgc6&r= |
| By: | Eckersley, Peter; Kern, Kristine; Haupt, Wolfgang; Müller, Hannah |
| Abstract: | This report is a product of the ExTrass project, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to help medium-sized and large cities in Germany to prepare for the increased frequency of extreme weather events, particularly heavy rainfall and heatwaves. The project examines the drivers and barriers for urban climate adaptation and mitigation, with a particular focus on three case study cities: Potsdam, Remscheid and Würzburg. Amongst other things, the project team evaluates the efficacy of urban greening initiatives, works towards climate-sensitive urban planning, contributes data on city climate, educates the population on risks and improves contingency plans. It also provides a platform for knowledge exchange to help cities learn from each other. Cities are responsible for about 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions and are also particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Extreme weather events can result in significant damage to property and pose major risks to urban populations. Yet, municipalities are not able to manage these risks alone: in order to understand how they are seeking to combat change we need to examine the contexts within which they operate and their relationships with other key actors. This report focuses on the multi-level nature of the German state, with a particular focus on the role of the Bundesländer regional governments. It shows how the climate and energy priorities of individual states are largely shaped by their political and economic interests, and result in them adopting different approaches to working with municipalities. It shows that although Germany relies overwhelmingly on interdependent, vertical relationships between tiers of government to coordinate and implement climate policy, states that do not have a historical reliance on fossil fuel resources, and/or in which the Green Party form part of the governing coalition, have provided more resources and support to municipal governments to act on the issue. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irsdia:32021&r= |
| By: | Adrien Fabre (ETHZ ZURICH CHE - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture); Bénédicte Apouey (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thomas Douenne (UvA - University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam]); Jean-Michel Fourniau (AME-DEST - Dynamiques Economiques et Sociales des Transports - Université Gustave Eiffel); Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-François Laslier (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Solène Tournus (MSHPN - Maison des sciences de l'Homme Paris Nord - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | We conduct surveys on both participants in the French Citizens Convention for Climate (CCC) and the general public. By comparing the answers of the randomly drawn citizens with those of the general population on identical questions, we assess the representativity of the CCC, study the evolution of the citizens' opinions, and document the perceptions of the CCC. The CCC appeared broadly representative of the French population. Although, the CCC's Citizens seemed to have been somewhat more favorable to climate policies than the general population at the start, a majority support was found for all proposed measures but one. Despite our findings that the CCC correctly represented the population, we document widespread ignorance and mistrust towards the CCC, including a largely shared belief that it was not representative. |
| Keywords: | Convention Citoyenne pour le Climat,Climate change,Sortition,Citizens Assembly |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:halshs-03265053&r= |
| By: | Anne Goujon-Belghit (Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux, IRGO - Institut de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux); Jocelyn Husser (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Aix-en-Provence - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | This article questions the place of teacher-researchers in today's society, which is undergoing the fruits of the reforms initiated by the Lisbon Strategy in 2000. Based on an analysis of the literature in Management Sciences, this article shows that the economic, geopolitical and financial environment profoundly modifies the role of teacher-researchers in French society. A model underlines the two facets of the teacher-researcher's job, namely teaching and research. It also shows the subtle balance between these two roles and the ability to adapt to different audiences and outcomes. Finally,the performance indicators used by the State aim to show the inefficiency of teacher-researchers because they are based on inappropriate criteria. This article offers some ideas for integrating more relevant indicators that evaluate the performance of teacher-researchers on a societal scale. |
| Abstract: | Cet article questionne la place des enseignants-chercheurs qui, dans la société d'aujourd'hui, subissent les effets des réformes initiées par la stratégie de Lisbonne sur l'éducation (Conseil européen de Lisbonne en 2000). À partir de l'analyse de la littérature en Sciences de Gestion, cet article montre que l'environnement économique, géopolitique et financier modifie profondément le rôle des enseignants-chercheurs dans la société française. Une modélisation souligne les deux facettes du métier d'enseignant-chercheur que sont l'enseignement et la recherche. Elle montre également le subtil équilibre entre ces deux rôles et la capacité d'adaptation nécessaire pour entrer en relation avec des publics et des résultats différents. Finalement les indicateurs de performance retenus par l'État ambitionnent de montrer l'inefficacité des enseignants-chercheurs car ils s'appuient sur des critères inappropriés. Cet article offre des pistes de réflexion pour intégrer des indicateurs plus pertinents qui évaluent la performance des enseignants-chercheurs à l'échelle sociétale. |
| Keywords: | Teacher-researcher,societal responsibility,university reforms,performance,Enseignant-chercheur,responsabilité sociétale,réformes universitaires,performance. |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277500&r= |
| By: | Aaltonen, Aleksi Ville; Alaimo, Cristina; Kallinikos, Jannis |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the process by which data are generated, managed, and assembled into tradable objects we call data commodities. We link the making of such objects to the open and editable nature of digital data and to the emerging big data industry in which they are diffused items of exchange, repurposing, and aggregation. We empirically investigate the making of data commodities in the context of an innovative telecommunications operator, analyzing its efforts to produce advertising audiences by repurposing data from the network infrastructure. The analysis unpacks the processes by which data are repurposed and aggregated into novel data-based objects that acquire organizational and industry relevance through carefully maintained metrics and practices of data management and interpretation. Building from our findings, we develop a process theory that explains the transformations data undergo on their way to becoming commodities and shows how these transformations are related to organizational practices and to the editable, portable, and recontextualizable attributes of data. The theory complements the standard picture of data encountered in data science and analytics and renews and extends the promise of a constructivist IS research into the age of datafication. The results provide practitioners, regulators included, vital insights concerning data management practices that produce commodities from data. |
| Keywords: | advertising audience; analytics; big data; case study; data commodities; data-based objects; social practices; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110296&r= |
| By: | Asmae Mrhar (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Aziz Bensbahou (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl) |
| Abstract: | Morocco has finally joined the trajectory of participatory finance. However, despite the efforts made to promote this nascent industry, this is still very insufficient to encourage it. In addition, the tax variable is a determining factor in the financing decision because it weighs heavily on the cost of participatory banking products. In the absence of tax regulations that take into account the nature of these products and put in place an incentive and encouraging tax framework that guarantees better tax neutrality, this industry risks being less competitive compared to their conventional counterparts. The scarcity of studies dealing with this tax evolution, prompted us to study and analyze this question, while basing ourselves on the evolution of the tax framework of these products in Morocco and also on the various tax novelties brought by the succession of the laws of finances. |
| Abstract: | Le Maroc s'est enfin inscrit dans la trajectoire de la finance participative. Cependant, malgré les efforts déployés pour promouvoir cette industrie naissante, cela reste très insuffisant pour l'encourager. Par ailleurs, la variable fiscale constitue une déterminante de la décision de financement du fait qu'elle pèse lourdement sur le coût des produits bancaires participatifs. Dans l'absence d'une réglementation fiscale prenant en considération la nature de ces produits et mettant en place un cadre fiscal incitatif et encourageant et garantissant une meilleure neutralité fiscale, cette industrie risque d'être moins compétitive en comparaison avec leurs homologues conventionnels. La rareté des études traitant cette évolution fiscale nous a poussés à étudier et à analyser cette question, tout en nous basant sur l'évolution du cadre fiscal de ces produits au Maroc et aussi sur les différentes nouveautés fiscales apportées par la succession des lois de finances. |
| Keywords: | Tax Neutrality,Participatory Finance,Financing Decision,Tax Variable,Neutralité Fiscal,Décision de Financement,Variable Fiscale,Finance Participative |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03318575&r= |
| By: | Alois Pichler; Dana Uhlig |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic still causes severe impacts on society and the economy. This paper studies excess mortality during the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 in Germany empirically with a special focus on the life insurer's perspective. Our conclusions are based on official counts of German governmental offices on the living and deaths of the entire population. Conclusions, relevant for actuaries and specific insurance business lines, including portfolios of pension, life, and health insurance contracts, are provided. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12899&r= |
| By: | Chiwuzulum Odozi, John (University of Ibadan, Nigeria); Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth (Agnes Scott College) |
| Abstract: | Nigeria has experienced bouts of violent conflict in different regions since its independence leading to significant loss of life. In this paper, we explore the average effect of exposure to violent conflict generally on labor supply in agriculture. Using a nationally representative panel dataset for Nigeria from 2010-2015, in combination with armed conflict data, we estimate the average effect of exposure to violent conflict on a household's farm labor supply. Our findings suggest that on average, exposure to violent conflict significantly reduces total family labor supply hours in agriculture. We also find that the decline in family labor supply is driven by a significant decline in the household head's total number of hours on the farm. |
| Keywords: | ethno-religious conflict, Boko Haram, farm households, farmer-herdsmen conflict, labor supply, Nigeria, Niger-delta conflict, violent conflict |
| JEL: | Q10 Q12 O1 D74 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14579&r= |
| By: | Harleen Kaur (Independent Researcher); Ajay Shah (xKDR Forum and Jindal Global University); Siddhartha Srivastava (King's College, London) |
| Abstract: | Quality problems in drug purchasing by Indian state agencies lie at the intersection of the field of drug quality in India and the field of government contracting in India. Improvements in the procedures used by state agencies when buying drugs can improve the working of public health care programs, and potentially also influence drug quality in the private market. The first step towards policy analysis and reform lies in careful description of how drug purchase works at present. In this paper, we describe how some elements of the Indian state buy drugs. |
| JEL: | I18 H51 H57 H83 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anf:wpaper:5&r= |
| By: | Haugen, Ronald |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2021–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:313163&r= |
| By: | James J. Heckman; Colleen P. Loughlin |
| Abstract: | The recent Supreme Court decision NCAA vs Alston (June 2021) has heightened interest in the benefits and costs of participation in sports for student athletes. Anecdotes about the exploitation of student athletes were cited in the opinion. This paper uses panel data for two different cohorts that follow students from high school through college and into their post-school pursuits to examine the generality of these anecdotes. On average, student athletes’ benefit- often substantially so—in terms of graduation, post-collegiate employment, and earnings. Benefits in terms of social mobility for disadvantaged and minority students are substantial, contrary to the anecdotes in play in the media and in the courts. |
| JEL: | I26 I32 Z2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29072&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Benchimol (Bank of Israel); Sophia Kazinnik (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Yossi Saadon (Bank of Israel) |
| Abstract: | Have the content, sentiment, and timing of the Federal Reserve (Fed) communications changed across communication types during the COVID-19 pandemic? Did similar changes occur during the global financial and dot-com crises? We compile dictionaries specific to COVID-19 and unconventional monetary policy (UMP) and utilize sentiment analysis and topic modeling to study the Fedâs communications and answer the above questions. We show that the Fedâs communications regarding the COVID-19 pandemic concern matters of financial volatility, contextual uncertainty, and financial stability, and that they emphasize health, social welfare, and UMP. We also show that the Fedâs communication policy changes drastically during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the GFC and dot-com crisis in terms of content, sentiment, and timing. Specifically, we find that during the past two decades, a decrease in the financial stability sentiment conveyed by the Fedâs interest rate announcements and minutes precedes a decrease in the Fedâs interest rate. |
| Keywords: | Central bank communication, Unconventional monetary policy, Financial stability, Text mining, COVID |
| JEL: | C55 E44 E58 E63 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boi:wpaper:2021.15&r= |
| By: | Jang-Ting Guo (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Yan Zhang (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law) |
| Abstract: | In the context of a two-period non-monetary overlapping generations model with Cobb-Douglas preference and technological specifications, this paper explores the quantitative interrelations between equilibrium (in)determinacy versus (i) a progressive tax schedule on wage income and (ii) a balanced-budget rule with endogenous labor taxation. In sharp contrast to previous studies on a one-sector representative-agent macroeconomy, we find that both fiscal formulations are stabilizing instruments against cyclical fluctuations driven by agents' self-fulfilling beliefs. The key policy implication of our no-indeterminacy result is that depending on what is the underlying analytical environment, countercyclical income taxation may stabilize or destabilize the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Tax Policy; Equilibrium Indeterminacy; Overlapping Generations Model. |
| JEL: | E32 E62 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202112&r= |
| By: | Melise Jaud; Madina Kukenova; Martin Strieborny |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the transmission process from finance to the real economy in the context of product-level export survival. We find that conditional on the specific financial needs of exported products, banks and stock markets play distinctive roles in helping exporters survive in foreign markets. Stock markets rather than banks help exporters who lack easily collateralizable tangible assets. Active rather than large stock markets facilitate exports of products requiring high levels of working capital. And the trade credit can act as a substitute only for bank financing and only in the presence of well-established export links. |
| Keywords: | finance and export survival, transmission from finance to real economy, banks versus stock markets |
| JEL: | F14 G10 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2021_14&r= |
| By: | Stys, Pat; Kirk, Thomas; Muhindo, Samuel; Balume, Bauma; Mazuri, Papy; Tchumisi, Ishara; N'simire, Sandrine; Green, Duncan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines our experiences designing and implementing an experimental methodology to study households’ socioeconomic coping mechanisms in insecure, unstable, or conflict-affected contexts. Our method combined longitudinal household diaries with social network research to collect data on how 24 households living in Goma, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, use their financial and social resources to overcome daily struggles and unexpected shocks like bereavement and theft. Before outlining how the methods complement one another in this study, we overview how each has been employed separately for similar aims. We then turn to the realities of combining them in Goma, reflecting on foreseen and unanticipated challenges and how we addressed them – both successfully and not. Money matters are generally sensitive subjects, and particularly so in such environments. The threads that run through this assessment are those of forging and maintaining trust; translating across languages and cultures; and navigating an insecure and fast-changing environment. To contextualise a discussion of how these factors may have affected the research, data collected, and our conclusions, we provide two vignettes of households that participated in the study. Throughout, we also explore the potential effects of a water provision programme implemented by Mercy Corps that benefited some of the studied households. We conclude with recommendations for those wishing to build upon our method and for development programmes keen to use it to complement their own monitoring, evaluation, and learning. |
| Keywords: | Centre for Public Authority and International Development (CPAID) (ES/P008038/1); IMAGINE programme |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111548&r= |
| By: | Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | Media bias is an important and underexplored feature of the economics of information. In this paper, I outline two models that can be used to illustrate media bias in an introductory economics course. The models rely on relatively simple and intuitive underlying assumptions, and draw on related empirical research. They do not require extensive mathematical derivations, although the models can easily be extended for more mathematically-inclined students. The models are useful in linking economic theory and empirical research, in a context that undergraduate students can relate to and often have direct experience of. The models can also be used to motivate a range of discussions on media and competition policy. |
| Keywords: | Media bias; Economic teaching |
| JEL: | A22 L82 |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:21/08&r= |
| By: | José Dorich; Rhys R. Mendes; Yang Zhang |
| Abstract: | Since 1991, the Bank of Canada has had an inflation-targeting (IT) framework established by a joint agreement between the Bank and the Government of Canada. The framework is reviewed every five years as part of the process for renewing the inflation-control agreement. This discussion paper summarizes some interim results from Bank staff analysis done for the August 2020 workshop, “Towards the 2021 Renewal of the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework.” The Bank will publish updated analysis later in 2021. The core of the current framework—the 2 percent inflation target—has remained unchanged since 1995. This fact reflects its success. Well-anchored inflation expectations contribute to macroeconomic stability while leaving monetary policy with greater flexibility. The 2021 renewal highlights two key challenges facing Canadian monetary policy: (1) the low neutral rate of interest; and (2) the low interest rates associated with a low neutral rate that may encourage excessive risk-taking and debt accumulation To address these challenges, Bank staff are running a “horse race” of alternative monetary policy frameworks (i.e., alternatives to the 2 percent IT framework). Their work evaluates these alternatives using a broad range of qualitative and quantitative criteria and focuses on the macroeconomic performance of the alternative frameworks. The interim results we report in this discussion paper suggest overall that no framework dominates on all margins. As a result, the ranking depends on the relative weight placed on different criteria. |
| Keywords: | Central bank research; Economic models; Inflation targets; Monetary policy; Monetary policy framework; Monetary policy transmission |
| JEL: | E58 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:21-13&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | Wars and the threat of war remain constant realities in our societies, and the twentieth century has been particularly rich in deadly conflicts. However, the neoclassical current still assumes, never discussed as if it were self-evident, that international trade is a factor of peace; when states cannot and should not intervene in the national economy, they are no longer in a position to wage economic war. With the slogan "America first" inspired by mercantilism and government-controlled Chinese capitalism, the domination and demonstration effects of states obviously change the conditions of the international market economy. Moreover, short-term self-interest is not compatible with the need to collectively save the planet Earth in great danger. Capitalism reveals its flaws, especially in the fields of ecology, environment, climate, but also in the unbearable inequalities of income and power between countries or between citizens. |
| Abstract: | Les guerres et les menaces de guerre restent des réalités constantes dans nos sociétés et le vingtième siècle a été particulièrement friand de conflits meurtriers. Pourtant, le courant néoclassique émet toujours l'hypothèse, jamais discutée comme s'il s'agissait d'une évidence, que le commerce international est un facteur de paix.Lorsque les Etats ne peuvent et ne doivent pas intervenir dans l'économie nationale, ils ne sont plus en mesure e d'engager une guerre économique. Avec le slogan "America first" inspiré par le mercantilisme et le capitalisme chinois contrôlé par le gouvernement, les effets de domination et de démonstration des Etats modifient évidemment les conditions de l'économie de marché internationale. De plus, l'intérêt personnel de court terme n'est pas compatible avec la nécessité de sauver collectivement la planète Terre en grand danger. Le capitalisme révèle ses failles, notamment dans les domaines de l'écologie, de l'environnement, du climat, mais aussi dans les inégalités insupportables de revenus et de pouvoir entre pays ou entre les citoyens. |
| Keywords: | Peace,War,economics,management sciences,Paix,Guerre,Economie,science du management |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03315790&r= |
| By: | Andreeva, Andriyana |
| Abstract: | The present article examines some questions connected to the institute of working time in the modern digital conditions and in the context of remote work. Based on actual normative analysis the main questions, related to the necessity of actualization of the legal regulation are outlined. The limits/line between the working time and rest in the context of the idea for establishing of new subjective labour law as well as considering the relation of the institute working time to the protecting function of the labour law are examined. In conclusion and as result of the examination the challenges in front of the doctrine and legislator connected to the improvement of the institute in vies of its adequacy to the modern conditions of work prestation and flexible employment forms are marked. The scientific thesis of the author is for the necessity of actualization of the working time and establishing of subjective labour law, guaranteeing observance of the limits of the working time. |
| Keywords: | working time, rest, types of working time, remote work, flexible employment forms |
| JEL: | K31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109049&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | An explosive volcanic eruption that began on April 9 is hitting St. Vincent and the Grenadines hard, creating an urgent balance of payments need and a humanitarian crisis as the country continues to deal with the fallout from the global pandemic. The economy is estimated to have contracted in 2020 by 3.8 percent as tourism activity fell 70 percent. Before the eruption, economic growth was expected to be flat in 2021, as the global pandemic continued, and tourism remained depressed. While there is considerable uncertainty about the evolution of the eruption, staff estimate the infrastructure damage to exceed 20 percent of GDP and for the economy to contract by 6.1 percent in 2021 with agriculture and related sectors severely affected. |
| Date: | 2021–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/157&r= |
| By: | Somanchi, Anmol (IDinsight) |
| Abstract: | India’s statistical system is in bad shape with a near absence of regular publicly funded household surveys in recent years. All eyes have now turned to the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS), a panel survey of over 170,000 households, privately executed by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) since 2014. Given its breadth and high frequency, CPHS has become a widely referenced barometer of the Indan economy. Research papers using CPHS have also mushroomed. However, there has been little validation of the nature and quality of CPHS data. Most crucially, is it true that CPHS is an “all-India representative survey” as claimed by CMIE and echoed by multiple articles in prestigious journals? Comparing CPHS with various national surveys on a set of key demographic and economic indicators, this paper argues that, far from being nationally representative, CPHS under-represents women and young children, over-represents well-educated households and under-represents the poor. A possible source for these biases (among others) is the strange, unorthodox sampling design adopted by CMIE, which differs from standard sampling approaches on various counts. Further, the bias in the CPHS sample appears to be growing in recent years, posing a serious challenge when using the data to study trends over time |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qmce9&r= |
| By: | Hossain Ahmed Taufiq |
| Abstract: | The ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis is considered as one of the largest human-made humanitarian disasters of the 21st century. So far, Bangladesh is the largest recipient of these refugees. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA), approximately 650,000 new entrants have been recorded since the new violence erupted on 25 August 2017 in the Rakhine state of Myanmar.1 However, such crisis is nothing new in Bangladesh, nor are the security-related challenges new that such an exodus brings with it. Ever since the military came to power in Myanmar (in 1962), Rohingya exodus to neighboring countries became a recurring incident. The latest mass exodus of Rohingyas from Rakhine state of Myanmar to Bangladesh is the largest of such influxes. Unlike, the previous refugee crisis, the ongoing crisis has wide-ranging security implications on Bangladesh. They are also varied and multifaceted. Thus, responsibilities for ensuring effective protection have become operationally multilateral. The problem of security regarding the Rohingya refugee issue is complicated by the Islamist insurgency, illicit methamphetamine/yaba drug trafficking, and HIV/AIDS/STI prevalence factors. The chapter examines the different dimensions of security challenges that the recent spell of Rohingya exodus brings to Bangladesh and the refugees themselves. In order to understand the challenges, firstly the chapter attempts to conceptualize the prominent security frameworks. Secondly, it examines the context and political economy behind the persecution of Rohingyas in the Rakhine state. Thirdly, it explores the political and military aspects of security. Fourthly, it explores the social and economic dimensions. Finally, it examines the environmental impacts of Rohingya crisis in Bangladesh. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12080&r= |
| By: | Florian Landis (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Gustav Fredriksson (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Sebastian Rausch (ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University, Germany, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the distributional impacts from (i) harmonizing prices for carbon dioxide emissions across sectors and EU countries and (ii) using alternative rules for carbon revenue distribution. We develop a numerical multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model of the EU-27 economy which resolves household income deciles, based on micro-survey data on expenditure and income, and markets for fossil fuels, electricity, and (EU-wide and national) tradeable emissions rights. We find that carbon price harmonization yields efficiency gains at the EU level. The distributional effects between countries vary and depend largely on the redistribution of carbon revenues. Based on the rules currently in place in Phase IV of the EU ETS, efficiency gains flow disproportionately to low-income countries. Within-country incidence is progressive or neutral for most countries when revenue redistribution is ignored, and is not much affected by carbon price harmonization. Per-capita-based revenue redistribution rules lead to strong progressive outcomes and yield gains for low-income households. Evaluating different policy options using a social welfare function that incorporates inequality aversion suggests that there is no trade-off between efficiency and equity in harmonizing carbon prices in the EU economy. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing, Carbon market integration, EU climate policy, Distributional impacts, Cost effectiveness, Computable general equilibrium, Household heterogeneity |
| JEL: | C68 H23 Q43 Q52 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-361&r= |
| By: | Fischer, Kai; Reade, J. James; Schmal, W. Benedikt |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has caused economic shock waves across the globe. Much research addresses direct health implications of an infection, but to date little is known about how this shapes lasting economic effects. This paper estimates the workplace productivity effects of COVID-19 by studying performance of soccer players after an infection. We construct a dataset that encompasses all traceable infections in the elite leagues of Germany and Italy. Relying on a staggered difference-in-differences design, we identify negative short- and longer-run performance effects. Relative to their preinfection outcomes, infected players' performance temporarily drops by more than 6%. Over half a year later, it is still around 5% lower. The negative effects appear to have notable spillovers on team performance. We argue that our results could have important implications for labor markets and public health in general. Countries and firms with more infections might face economic disadvantages that exceed the temporary pandemic shock due to potentially long-lasting reductions in productivity. |
| Keywords: | Labor Performance,Economic Costs of COVID-19,Public Health |
| JEL: | I18 J24 J44 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:368&r= |
| By: | Laetitia Gohlou Diomandé (UICL - CERF - Centre, d’Etudes, de Recherche et de Formation Continue, Sup'management.); Cedric Yao (UICL - CERF - Centre, d’Etudes, de Recherche et de Formation Continue, Sup'management.) |
| Abstract: | The asymmetry of information, resulting from the agency theory, is an aspect that is much complained about by banks regarding SMEs in Africa; and is one of the main reasons for the lack of financing of which these SMEs are victims. The informal structure of the African SME is the main reason for this information asymmetry. Thus far, banks have been content to require African SMEs to adapt to their operations, such as having financial data that meets legal requirements, but this has only widened the gap between these two actors. This thesis proposes the modeling of an information system that is as well adapted to the constraints of banks as to those of the African SME, in order to promote the permanent sharing of information between these two actors. The modeled system would allow both banks to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on African SMEs and the latter to meet the requirements of banks to obtain the financing they need. |
| Abstract: | L'asymétrie d'information, issue de la théorie de l'agence est un aspect qui est beaucoup décrié par les banques concernant les PME en Afrique ; et est l'une des causes du manque de financement dont sont victimes ces PME. Le caractère informel de la PME Africaine est la principale cause de cette asymétrie d'informations. Jusqu'à présent les banques se sont contentées d'exiger des PME Africaines qu'elles s'adaptent à leur fonctionnement comme le fait de disposer de données financières répondant aux critères légaux, mais cela n'a fait que creuser un peu plus le fossé entre ces deux acteurs. Cet article propose la modélisation d'un système d'informations aussi bien adaptée aux contraintes des banques qu'à celles de la PME Africaine, afin de favoriser le partage permanent d'informations entre ces deux acteurs. Le système modélisé permettrait à la fois aux banques d'obtenir des informations qualitatives et quantitatives sur les PME Africaines et à ces dernières de répondre aux exigences des banques pour l'obtention des financements dont elles ont besoin. |
| Keywords: | SME,Bank,Social netork,Informal sector,Financing,Asymétrie of information,information system,Process modeling,Accounting software,système d’information,asymétrie d’information,financement,secteur informel,Banque,PME,modélisation de processus,réseau social,logiciel comptable |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03317678&r= |
| By: | Yoshihara, Naoki |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we have reviewed the labor theory of value as the basis for the analysis of economic inequality in the capitalist economy. According to the standard Marxian view, the system of labor values of individual commodities can serve as the center of gravity for long-term price fluctuations in the precapitalist economy with simple commodity-production, where no exploitative social relation emerges, while in the modern capitalist economy, the labor value system is replaced by the prices of production associated with an equal positive rate of profits as the center of gravity, in which exploitative relation between the capitalist and the working classes is a generic and persistent feature of economic inequality. Some of the literature such as Morishima (1973, 1974) criticized this view by showing that the labor values of individual commodities are no longer well-defined if the capitalist economy has joint production. Given these arguments, this paper firstly shows that the system of individual labor values can be still well-defined in the capitalist economy with joint production whenever the set of available production techniques is all-productive. Secondly, this paper shows that it is generally impossible to verify that the labor-value pricing serves as the center of gravity for price fluctuations in precapitalist economies characterized by the full development of simple commodity-production. |
| Keywords: | UE-Exploitation, The Labor Theory of Value, Prices of Production |
| JEL: | D63 D51 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:724&r= |
| By: | Salifou Ndam (Université de Yaoundé I [Yaoundé]) |
| Abstract: | The Cameroonian state advocates secularism. Yet, more than 50 years after the country's independence, the issue of secularism remains quite complex and ambiguous in terms of public ownership and various interpretations observed. Starting from this logic, the religious manifests himself without limits, and on varied and differentiated scales, in the different spheres of daily life. In public services, for example, it takes the form of the omnipresence of objects and places of worship on workspaces and in professional interactions between public servants and users. Although officially deviant, this practice is the result of the real need for public servants to bring their religions to the workplace in the name of secularism and freedom of religion. Because of the apparent confusion between secularism and freedom of worship, religion is positioned in public services not only as an element of social marking, but also as a tool for claiming identity, religious mobilization and guiding the conduct of public servants and users. This reconfiguration of the social relationships between public servants and between public servants and users calls into question the cardinal requirements of the public service, in the administrative sense of the term. Consequently, this article uses data from direct observations in Yaounde, the capital city of Cameroon, and semi-directive interviews with users and public servants in five ministries, focuses on the analyses of the relationship that exist between individuals and secularism. It emerges that the preponderance of religious facts in public services is part of a questioning of the administrative and professional ethics of public servants, and of the various considerations of the notion of secularism by Cameroonian society in general. Although the latter are contradictory, its multiplicity and consequences constitute a proof of the religious cohabitation, the conciliation and the sharing of subjectivities in the jobsite, and at the same time a breach of the performance and efficiency of public servants in Cameroon. |
| Abstract: | L'État camerounais prône la laïcité. Pourtant, plus de 50 ans après l'indépendance officielle du pays, la question de la laïcité demeure assez complexe et ambiguë en termes d'appropriation publique et de diverses interprétations. En effet, le religieux se manifeste sans limite, et à des échelles variées et différenciées, dans les multiples sphères de la vie quotidienne. Dans les services publics par exemple, il se matérialise par l'omniprésence d'objets et lieux de culte sur les espaces de travail et dans les interactions professionnelles entre agents et usagers. Bien qu'étant officiellement déviante, cette pratique résulte du besoin réel des agents publics d'emporter leurs religions dans leurs lieux de travail, au nom de la laïcité et de la liberté de culte. Du fait de l'apparente confusion entre laïcité et liberté de culte, la religion se positionne dans les services publics non seulement comme un élément de marquage social, mais aussi comme un outil de revendication identitaire, de mobilisation religieuse et un guide des conduites des agents et usagers. Cette reconfiguration des rapports sociaux des agents publics entre eux et des agents publics avec des usagers remet en question l'une des exigences cardinales du service public, au sens administratif du terme. Par conséquent, le présent article s'appuie sur les données issues des observations directes à Yaoundé, la capitale du pays, et des entretiens semi-directifs avec les usagers et agents publics de cinq ministères, pour analyser les rapports des individus à la laïcité. Il en ressort que la prépondérance des faits religieux dans les services publics participe d'une remise en question de la déontologie administrative et professionnelle des agents publics, et des considérations diverses de la notion de laïcité par la société camerounaise en général. Bien que ces dernières soient contradictoires, leur multiplicité et ses conséquences constituent une preuve de la cohabitation religieuse, de conciliation et de partage des subjectivités au travail, et en même temps une entorse au rendement et à l'efficacité des agents publics au Cameroun. |
| Date: | 2021–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03264105&r= |
| By: | Patrick Reichert; Marek Hudon; Ariane Szafarz; Robert K. Christensen |
| Abstract: | In today’s multisector configurations, there is little clarity about whether and how public and private subsidies influence social enterprises’ pursuit of financial stability. We address the strategic role of donors in the social-business life cycle whereby social enterprise start-ups rely on subsidies, while mature social enterprises strive for independence from donors. To address the “missing middle,” we develop a typology of subsidy instruments and an intermediary signaling model to clarify how subsidies shape the evolution of outcomes for social enterprises. We argue that source variation matters for certain instruments like corporate intangibles and governmentally subsidized credit guarantees, which trigger crowding-in effects and attract commercial partners, while preventing perverse crowding-out effects, such as soft budget constraints. To illustrate this commercialization story, we draw upon a microfinance case study, demonstrating how public and private donors can induce crowding-in and crowding-out effects. In short, our subsidy typology helps unpack the signals that public and private subsidies send to commercial funders of social enterprises and how they shape the path to future financial independence. |
| Keywords: | Subsidy; Crowding-in; Crowding-out; Signaling theory; Resource acquisition; Social finance |
| JEL: | H83 G23 H81 M16 M14 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/329773&r= |
| By: | Sacchetto, Camilla; Daniel, Egas; Danquah, Michael; Telli, Henry |
| Keywords: | coronavirus; Covid-19 |
| JEL: | N0 E6 |
| Date: | 2020–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111562&r= |
| By: | Kumar Sur, Pramod |
| Abstract: | Can a domestic policy implemented by the government in the past help explain the puzzling practice of health care usage today? I study this question in the context of India, where households' use of primary health care services presents a paradox. A significant fraction of Indian households uses fee-charging private health care services even though most providers have no formal medical qualifications. The private share of health care use is even higher in markets where qualified doctors offer free care through public clinics. Combining contemporary household-level data with archival records, I examine the aggressive family planning program implemented during the emergency rule in the 1970s and explore whether the coercion, disinformation, and carelessness involved in implementing the program could partly explain the puzzle. Exploiting the timing of the emergency rule, state-level variation in the number of sterilizations, and an instrumental variable approach, I show that the states heavily affected by the sterilization policy have a lower level of public health care usage today. I demonstrate the mechanism for this practice by showing that the states heavily affected by forced sterilizations have a lower level of confidence in government hospitals and doctors and a higher level of confidence in private hospitals and doctors in providing good treatment. |
| Keywords: | Health care market, health care usage, confidence in institutions, sterilization, persistence, India, I11, N35, I12, J13 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000186&r= |
| By: | Anuradha Singh |
| Abstract: | Rapid rise in income inequality in India is a serious concern. While the emphasis is on inclusive growth, it seems difficult to tackle the problem without looking at the intricacies of the problem. The Social Mobility Index is an important tool that focuses on bringing long-term equality by identifying priority policy areas in the country. The PCA technique is employed in computation of the index. Overall, the Union Territory of Delhi ranks first, with the highest social mobility and the least social mobility is in Chhattisgarh. In addition, health and education access, quality and equity are key priority areas that can help improve social mobility in India. Thus, we conclude that human capital is of great importance in promoting social mobility and development in the present times. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.08816&r= |
| By: | Gaggero, A.; Ajnakina, O.; Hackett, R.A |
| Abstract: | The extent to which heavy smoking and early retirement are causally related remains to be determined. To overcome the endogeneity of heavy smoking behaviour, we employ a novel approach by exploiting Mendelian Randomisation and use genetic predisposition to heavy smoking, as measured with a polygenic risk score (PGS), as an instrumental variable. A total of 3578 participants from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (mean age 64.41 years) had data on smoking behaviour, employment and a heavy smoking PGS. Heavy smoking was indexed as smoking at least 20 cigarettes a day. Early retirement was classified as retiring before state pension age. Our results show that being a heavy smoker increases significantly the probability of early retirement. Results were robust to a battery of robustness checks and a falsification test. Overall, our findings support a causal pathway from heavy smoking to early retirement. |
| Keywords: | smoking; early retirement; polygenic risk scores; instrumental variable; mendelian randomisation |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:21/12&r= |
| By: | Ulrike Malmendier |
| Abstract: | This article establishes four key findings of the growing literature on experience effects in finance: (1) the long-lasting imprint of past experiences on beliefs and risk taking, (2) recency effects, (3) the domain-specificity of experience effects, and (4) imperviousness to information that is not experience-based. I first discuss the neuroscientific foundations of experience-based learning and sketch a simple model of its role in the stock market based on Malmendier et al. (2020a,b). I then distill the empirical findings on experience effects in stock-market investment, trade dynamics, and international capital flows, highlighting these four key features. Finally, I contrast models of belief formation that rely on “learned information” with models accounting for the neuroscience evidence on synaptic tagging and memory formation, and provide directions for future research. |
| JEL: | D03 D8 D83 D87 D9 E17 E52 E7 G02 G4 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29074&r= |
| By: | Salaheddine Soummane (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); F. Ghersi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Franck Lecocq (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We implement the hybrid (energy-economy) recursive-dynamic multisector IMACLIM model with important adaptations to Saudi macroeconomics. We design two scenarios reflecting both the Saudi Vision 2030 economic development program and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to greenhouse gas mitigation: Continuity of previous plans to expand energy-intensive activities under maintained energy-pricing policies, versus Transformation by economic diversification away from hydrocarbon-related activities and fiscal and energypricing reforms. We show that, compared to Continuity, Transformation improves activity, employment and public budget outlooks, while considerably abating the energy intensity of GDP and total CO2 emissions. Our results thus point at the relevance of economic diversification as both a hedging strategy against international climate change mitigation depressing oil markets and a national climate mitigation strategy for Saudi Arabia. However, the successful advancement of the reforms necessary for diversification remains conditional to setting a suitable institutional framework for a competitive economy. |
| Keywords: | Economic diversification,General equilibrium,Oil-exporting country,Climate policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319116&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Greece entered the pandemic with an unfinished recovery, but the country has demonstrated resilience in facing COVID-19. The economy contracted by 8.2 percent in 2020, better than expected given Greece’s high dependence on tourism and pre-existing vulnerabilities. The government provided among the largest on-budget fiscal stimuli in the euro zone and supervisory and ECB accommodation shielded the banking sector and kept financing conditions highly accommodative. Despite the pandemic, reforms progressed in a number of areas, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/154&r= |
| By: | Ardito, Chiara (University of Turin); Berton, Fabio (University of Turin); Pacelli, Lia (University of Turin); Passerini, Filippo (Catholic University Milan) |
| Abstract: | We measure the impact of employment protection reduction in an uncertain framework on firms' hires and performance, exploiting the Italian 2015 Jobs Act. Results indicate that firms (1) stabilize workforce mainly through contract transformations of low-tenure and low-human-capital incumbent workers performing high-physical and low-intellectual tasks; (2) apply a cost-saving strategy that increases profits and decreases value added per-head. Effects are stronger among non-exporting and non-innovative firms. Our evidence casts doubts on the effectiveness of employment protection reductions in enhancing productivity in the long run. |
| Keywords: | employment protection, human capital, productivity, tenure, tasks |
| JEL: | J08 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14613&r= |
| By: | Biagio Bossone |
| Abstract: | This article speaks to post-Keynesian economists and their fundamental vision of monetary production economies. It focuses on the role of commercial banks as creators of money in monetary production economies and studies the rent-extraction power of banks in the form of "seigniorage." The article examines how the relative size of banks in the payment system combines with their capacity to determine quantities and prices in the market for demand deposits and gives them the power to extract seigniorage from the economy; it clarifies the distinction between seigniorage originating from commercial bank money creation and profits derived from pure financial intermediation; and analyzes how seigniorage affects the economy’s price level and resource distribution. The article draws political-economy and economic-policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Commercial banks; Interest rate; Money creation; Prices; Resource distribution; Seigniorage |
| JEL: | E19 E20 E31 E40 E52 E58 E62 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2111&r= |
| By: | André Kurmann; Étienne Lalé; Lien Ta |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an explosion of research using real-time establishment-level data. One key challenge when working with this data is how to take into account the effects of business openings and closings. In this paper, we address this challenge by matching small business establishment records from Homebase with information on business activity from Google, Facebook, and Safegraph to distinguish business closings and openings from other sample exits and entry. We show that this distinction is critical to benchmark the data to pre-pandemic administrative records and estimate the effects of the pandemic on small business activity. We find four key results: (1) employment of small businesses in four of the hardest hit service sectors contracted more severely in the beginning of the pandemic than employment of larger businesses, but small businesses also rebounded more strongly and have on average recovered a higher share of job losses than larger businesses; (2) closings account for 70% of the initial decline in small business employment, but two thirds of closed businesses have reopened and the annual rate of closings is just slightly higher than prior to the pandemic; (3) new openings of small businesses constitute an important driver of the recovery but the annual rate of new openings is only about half the rate one year earlier (4) small business employment was affected less negatively in counties with early access to loans from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and in counties where Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) was more generous relative to pre-pandemic earnings of likely recipients, with business closings accounting for a large part of these two effects. The results dispel the popular notion that small businesses continue to suffer more from the pandemic than larger businesses. At the same time, our analysis suggests that PPP and FPUC helped to signifocantly mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic for small businesses by, respectively, alleviating financial constraints and stimulating demand for local services. La pandémie de COVID-19 a donné lieu à une explosion des recherches utilisant des données en temps réel au niveau des établissements. L'un des principaux défis à relever lorsqu'on travaille avec ces données est de prendre en compte les effets des ouvertures et des fermetures d'entreprises. Dans cet article, nous relevons ce défi en faisant correspondre les enregistrements des établissements de petites entreprises de Homebase avec les informations sur l'activité commerciale de Google, Facebook et Safegraph afin de distinguer les fermetures et ouvertures d'entreprises des autres sorties et entrées de l'échantillon. Nous montrons que cette distinction est essentielle pour comparer les données aux dossiers administratifs pré-pandémie et estimer les effets de la pandémie sur l'activité des petites entreprises. Nous trouvons quatre résultats clés : (1) l'emploi des petites entreprises dans quatre des secteurs de services les plus durement touchés s'est contracté plus sévèrement au début de la pandémie que l'emploi des grandes entreprises, mais les petites entreprises ont également rebondi plus fortement et ont en moyenne récupéré une part plus importante des pertes d'emploi que les grandes entreprises ; (2) les fermetures représentent 70 % de la baisse initiale de l'emploi des petites entreprises, mais deux tiers des entreprises fermées ont rouvert et le taux annuel de fermetures est à peine plus élevé qu'avant la pandémie ; (3) les nouvelles ouvertures de petites entreprises constituent un moteur important de la reprise, mais le taux annuel de nouvelles ouvertures n'est que la moitié environ du taux enregistré un an plus tôt (4) l'emploi des petites entreprises a été moins affecté dans les comtés qui ont eu accès rapidement aux prêts du Programme de protection des salaires (PPP) et dans les comtés où l'indemnisation fédérale du chômage en cas de pandémie (FPUC) a été plus généreuse par rapport aux revenus des bénéficiaires probables avant la pandémie, les fermetures d'entreprises expliquant une grande partie de ces deux effets. Les résultats réfutent la notion populaire selon laquelle les petites entreprises continuent de souffrir davantage de la pandémie que les grandes entreprises. Dans le même temps, notre analyse suggère que le PPP et le FPUC ont contribué à atténuer de manière significative les effets négatifs de la pandémie pour les petites entreprises, respectivement en allégeant les contraintes financières et en stimulant la demande de services locaux. |
| Keywords: | Economics of small and medium enterprises,Labor turnover,Sampling bias,Matched data,COVID-19,Sector policies, Economie des petites et moyennes entreprises,Rotation de la main d’œuvre,Biais d’échantillonnage,Données appariées,COVID-19,Politiques sectorielles |
| JEL: | E01 E24 E32 E60 |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2021s-26&r= |
| By: | William Chen (Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Gregory Phelan (Department of Economics, Williams College) |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy can promote financial stability and improve household welfare. We consider a macro model with a financial sector in which banks do not actively issue equity, output and growth depend on the aggregate level of bank equity, and equilibrium is inefficient. Monetary policy rules responding to the financial sector are ex-ante stabilizing because their effects on risk premia decrease the likelihood of crises and boost leverage during downturns. Stability gains from monetary policy increase welfare whenever macroprudential policy is poorly targeted. If macroprudential policy is sufficiently well-targeted to promote financial stability, then monetary policy should not target financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Central bank mandate, Leaning against the wind, Fed Put, Macroprudential policy, Banks, Liquidity |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G01 G12 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Geoff Boeing; Max Besbris; David Wachsmuth; Jake Wegmann |
| Abstract: | This article interprets emerging scholarship on rental housing platforms -- particularly the most well-known and used short- and long-term rental housing platforms - and considers how the technological processes connecting both short-term and long-term rentals to the platform economy are transforming cities. It discusses potential policy approaches to more equitably distribute benefits and mitigate harms. We argue that information technology is not value-neutral. While rental housing platforms may empower data analysts and certain market participants, the same cannot be said for all users or society at large. First, user-generated online data frequently reproduce the systematic biases found in traditional sources of housing information. Evidence is growing that the information broadcasting potential of rental housing platforms may increase rather than mitigate sociospatial inequality. Second, technology platforms curate and shape information according to their creators' own financial and political interests. The question of which data -- and people -- are hidden or marginalized on these platforms is just as important as the question of which data are available. Finally, important differences in benefits and drawbacks exist between short-term and long-term rental housing platforms, but are underexplored in the literature: this article unpacks these differences and proposes policy recommendations. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.08229&r= |
| By: | Damian Grimshaw (King's Business School, King's College London); Marcela Miozzo (King's Business School, King's College London) |
| Keywords: | productivity, human capital, skill, innovation |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:006&r= |
| By: | Charles I. Jones |
| Abstract: | The nonrivalry of ideas gives rise to increasing returns, a fact celebrated in Paul Romer's recent Nobel Prize. An implication is that the long-run rate of economic growth is the product of the degree of increasing returns and the growth rate of research effort; this is the essence of semi-endogenous growth theory. This paper interprets past and future growth from a semi-endogenous perspective. For 50+ years, U.S. growth has substantially exceeded its long-run rate because of rising educational attainment, declining misallocation, and rising (global) research intensity, implying that frontier growth could slow markedly in the future. Other forces push in the opposite direction. First is the prospect of "finding new Einsteins": how many talented researchers have we missed historically because of the underdevelopment of China and India and because of barriers that discouraged women inventors? Second is the longer-term prospect that artificial intelligence could augment or even replace people as researchers. Throughout, the paper highlights many opportunities for further research. |
| JEL: | E0 O4 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29126&r= |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the relationship between governance and human development in Africa during the period 2010-2019 taking into account the existence of spatial dependence and controlling the endogeneity problem through a Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). The exploratory spatial data analysis reveals the existence of spatial dependence of human development and governance quality. Our empirical findings support that in Africa, “good fences make good neighbours†or proximity matters in the distribution of human development. Implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Governance, human development, Africa |
| JEL: | D31 I10 I32 K40 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/051&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Human resource development and continuous training are a precondition for organizational and socio-economic resilience and development. It is also vital to build integrated training programs, especially for the unemployed nowadays, considering the major challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in various labor markets internationally. This article aims to distinguish fundamental theoretical and practical dimensions of structuring business training programs and supporting learning and innovation after investigating critical trends of conceptual readjustment of modern management theory. A significant conclusion is that a business training program has to synthesize the organization’s strategic, technological, and managerial potential and goals (Stra.Tech.Man approach), valorizing the basic principles of integrated planning, organizing, implementing, and controlling. A novel training program framework is suggested, attributing particular weight to developing structured mechanisms for training unemployed population groups at the local level. |
| Keywords: | Training program; Unemployment; Post-COVID-19 era; Stra.Tech.Man approach; Modern management; Human resource development; Innovation; Knowledge development |
| JEL: | O15 O32 |
| Date: | 2021–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_006&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Today’s tensions and challenges at the global governance level seem to constitute structural expressions of the global system’s mutations towards the post-COVID-19 era. This study examines whether the structural changes observed in various socio-economic dimensions and interdependent spatial levels due to the pandemic crisis are accelerating the emergence of a new phase of global governance. It investigates whether Rodrik’s trilemma (the incompatibility of synchronously achieving national sovereignty, democracy and globalization) seems to be relatively inadequate to approach today’s emerging global reality and challenges comprehensively. After an elliptic overview of world governance’s evolutionary shaping and reaching the present-day necessarily repositioned role of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), we argue that these countries must no longer be perceived as emerging exceptional cases but as central participants, equally responsible for promoting a more balanced and sustainable development perspective for the less developed socio-economic formations and the entire global socio-economic system’s stability. We conclude that in the progressively shaped ‘new globalization’, which is a distinct evolutionary phase of the international economy and international relations, Rodrik’s trilemma seems to some extent analytically insufficient since there is no more a sustainable optimum in any of its coupled dimensions, which could allow a viable exit from the current crisis. |
| Keywords: | global governance; BRICS; post-COVID-19 era; new globalization; global socio-economic development; Rodrik’s trilemma |
| JEL: | F63 F69 |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_008&r= |
| By: | Elsje Alessandra Quadrelli (IRCELYON - Institut de recherches sur la catalyse et l'environnement de Lyon - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); François Ozanam (LPMC - Laboratoire de physique de la matière condensée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - X - École polytechnique); Louise Jalowiecki-Duhamel (UCCS - Unité de Catalyse et Chimie du Solide - UMR 8181 - CLIL - Centrale Lille Institut - UA - Université d'Artois - Ecole Centrale de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lille); Travert Arnaud (LCS - Laboratoire catalyse et spectrochimie - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ENSICAEN - École Nationale Supérieure d'Ingénieurs de Caen - NU - Normandie Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Myrtil L. Kahn (LCC - Laboratoire de chimie de coordination - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - ICT-FR 2599 - Institut de Chimie de Toulouse - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Paola Nava (ISM2 - Institut des Sciences Moléculaires de Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-François Guillemoles (IPVF - Institut Photovoltaïque d’Ile-de-France (ITE)); Hazar Guesmi (ICGM ICMMM - Institut Charles Gerhardt Montpellier - Institut de Chimie Moléculaire et des Matériaux de Montpellier - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENSCM - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Chimie de Montpellier) |
| Date: | 2021–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03311372&r= |
| By: | Südekum, Jens |
| Abstract: | Place-based policies had a bad reputation for decades, if they received any attention at all. This has recently changed, for two reasons. First, many countries have experienced political backlashes from rising spatial economic disparities. Populist movements received the highest support in economically backward regions, which had been hit by severe local shocks. By trying to foster spatial economic cohesion, regional policies have become an attempt to insure against those political trends and to save liberal democracies altogether. Second, recent theoretical and empirical research has challenged the leading paradigm of spatial equilibrium analysis, according to which place-based policies are an inefficient interference into the market-based resource allocation. In this paper, I review those arguments and how their balance has changed over time. I argue that the demand for place-based policies is likely to increase in the future, as new digital technologies might reinforce urban-rural divides. But even if the general case for place-based policies now seems to be more widely accepted, the question remains what exactly should be done and which type of programs generate the highest return. Digging through the vast evaluation literature, I try to derive some robust lessons how to conduct place-based policies in practise. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:367&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic performance and buffers were strong when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Economic and social restrictions instituted in March 2020 helped slow new infections and mitigate negative health outcomes but triggered a deep decline in activity in Q2:2020. The slump was followed by a strong rebound in Q3 as the restrictions were eased. With the resurgence of the virus, pressures on the health system peaked in late-March 2021 and eased after a new round of restrictions. Going forward, the outlook is for a near-term economic recovery subject to large two-way risks. The strength and durability of the recovery hinges on the evolution of the health situation and the extent of economic scarring from the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | policy support; data provision; statistics database; policy buffer; Policy discussion; debt data; COVID-19; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial statistics; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/160&r= |
| By: | Sichko, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Migration is among the most basic adaptation methods to inhospitable environments and has large economic consequences for both migrants and the broader economy. To estimate the impact of the worst drought in U.S. history on migration, I match 1940 census data with county-level drought conditions. I find that drought substantially increased migration rates for individuals with a 12th grade education or higher but had little impact on migration rates for people with less education. This differential migration response to drought by education was most pronounced in counties with larger economic downturns during the Great Depression, consistent with the hypothesis that individual liquidity constraints limited migration for people with lower human capital. In terms of where migrants went, I show that the majority of migrants in the late 1930s relocated to rural destinations. In fact, migrants from drought counties were less likely to relocate to cities compared to similar migrants from non-drought counties. These findings detail the impact of widespread drought for Depression-era migration and document the central role of individual human capital in the uptake of migration from climate shocks. |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wm2p3&r= |
| By: | Yassine Boussenna (GRMSI - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"- - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"-); Ouail El Kharraz (GRMSI - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"- - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"-) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this study was to verify the moderating role of Information Technology on the relationship between KM implementation and organizational performance in a university context through Abdelmalek Essaadi University. by collecting the views of teacher-researchers, using a hypothetical-deductive reasoning approach and a quantitative working method. Our questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of 88 teacher-researchers from the different institutions of the university under study. The results obtained using Hierarchical regression prove the moderating and positive role of Information technology on the intensity of the relationship between the application of the KM and (Training, research, publication, and governance) as indicators of organizational performance with a change in the correlation rate from R=0.917 to R=0.974 with the addition of leadership as a moderator variable with a degree of impact of 5.7%. This paper presents empirical evidence on the importance of the organizational, technical, and human factors on knowledge management implementation and enhancing performance. |
| Keywords: | organizational performance,Information Technology,knowledge management |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319115&r= |
| By: | Trejo-Pech, Carlos J.O.; White, Susan; Smith, Robert H. |
| Abstract: | Cal-Maine Foods Inc., the largest shell egg producer in the world, had historically operated with low debt levels relative to debt ratios in other industries and within agribusiness. In its third fiscal quarter report, issued by the end of March 2021, Cal-Maine reported no debt in its balance sheet, making this company one of the few debt-free publicly traded agribusinesses in the U.S. This case analyzes Cal-Maine’s capital structure, which represents a rare case for exploring and challenging the notion of optimal capital structure in theory and practice. Understanding the rationale behind a debt-free firm’s policy is puzzling because financial theory predicts that adding debt up to certain level −the optimal capital structure− creates economic value. According to surveyed chief financial officers, there is also evidence that practitioners use an optimal capital structure framework for financial management decisions. By applying a framework allowing for both qualitative and quantitative analysis, this case reviews the benefits and costs of debt in the capital structure, as applied to Cal-Maine. The case asks students to evaluate potential recapitalization policies in which Cal-Maine adds debt to its capital structure and use debt proceeds plus excess cash to repurchase shares at the prevailing price as of the end of May 2021. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313135&r= |
| By: | Narayan, Swati |
| Abstract: | Narayan’s book The Dravidian Years provides a rare glimpse of the political economy landscape of the most transformative period in Tamil Nadu’s social history from an insider’s perspective of a former public administrator who has served for three decades in the Indian bureaucracy. The book depicts the southern Indian state’s evolution from a deeply casteist British province to one with a radical social justice agenda, which over time however mutates into a more diluted hybrid amalgamation of capitalistic economic development with an ingrained ethos of populist social welfare. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a84n5&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | B. mining revenue; revenue management; tax exemption; A. mining revenue; company Cost Structure; Mining sector; Oil, gas and mining taxes; Corporate income tax; Transfer pricing; Natural resources; Asia and Pacific; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/147&r= |
| By: | Cheung, Stephen L. (University of Sydney); Tymula, Agnieszka (University of Sydney); Wang, Xueting (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Quasi-hyperbolic discounting is one of the most well-known and widely-used models to capture self-control problems in the economics literature. The underlying assumption of this model is that agents have a "present bias" toward current consumption such that all future rewards are downweighed relative to rewards in the present (in addition to standard exponential discounting for the length of delay). We report a meta-analytic dataset of estimates of the present bias parameter β based on searches of all major research databases (62 papers with 81 estimates in total). We find that the literature shows that people are on average present biased for both monetary rewards (β = 0.82, 95% confidence interval of [0.74, 0.90]) and nonmonetary rewards (β = 0.66, 95% confidence interval of [0.51, 0.85]) but that substantial heterogeneity exists across studies. The source of this heterogeneity comes from the subject pool, elicitation methodology, geographical location, payment method, mode of data collection (e.g. laboratory or field), and reward type. There is evidence of selective reporting and publication bias in the direction of overestimating the strength of present-bias (making β estimates smaller), but present bias still exists after correcting for these issues (for money β = 0.87 with 95% confidence interval of [0.82, 0.92] after correcting for selective reporting). |
| Keywords: | quasi-hyperbolic discounting, present bias, beta-delta model, meta-analysis |
| JEL: | C91 D12 D80 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14625&r= |
| By: | Jagjit Chadha; Hande Kucuk; Adrian Pabst |
| Abstract: | {Foreward by Jagjit Chadha) The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has focussed on furthering our understanding of fiscal policy throughout most of its life. And so I was delighted when the Nuffield Foundation gave us the opportunity to ask some hard questions about our current fiscal settlement. With the Covid-19 pandemic continuing to throw much of our normal loci completely off beam, it is a good time to consider the role of fiscal policy. Our work has been motivated by the simple observation that we need to re-examine carefully the objectives, instruments and framework guiding fiscal policy. Naturally, some aspects of our current fiscal settlement have involved worthwhile and probably enduring innovations, such as the establishment of the Office for Budget Responsibility in 2010. But it is abundantly clear that the fiscal settlement in the Long Expansion of 1992-2007 and in the period following the global financial crisis of 2007-8 need careful re-framing if we are to tackle the deep seated economic problems revealed by EU exit and the Covid-19 pandemic. Fiscal policy represents a complex, multifaceted attempt by the state to fill gaps in the market economy and encourage the private sector to locate productive practices. But to meet those objectives fiscal policies have to be both sufficiently flexible to respond to changing circumstances but also be guided by some form of principles or rules that allow progress to be judged and expectations formed about the likely path of public expenditure, taxes and debt. Too much fiscal policy operates by the smoke and mirrors of political surprise and partial leak rather than the more sober manner of timetabled meetings and clear, minuted decisions that characterise monetary policy, to name but one example. The large number of fiscal rules we have had to observe since 2010 alongside an increasing frustration with economic performance tell us that the post-2010 fiscal settlement has failed. It makes no sense to be in thrall to arbitrary rules that do not match society's broader demands for policy to be condoned by what I have called “Budgetarians†, who think it is sufficient to assess fiscal policy in terms of whether that arbitrary target will or will not be hit at some equally arbitrary date coincidental with a parliamentary term. The sad but obvious fact is that the demands of the economy cannot be folded into political horizons. In this Occasional Paper we have collected a number of views from a variety of experts. We have worked with two former central bankers to try and understand the meaning of fiscal space both from the supply side of debt issuance and the demand side of investment demand. Two former Chief Secretaries to the Treasury provide considerable details from their times in office. And a former Whitehall civil servant helps us understand the approaches to spending controls. We have commissioned an academic contribution on how to approach the current debt problem following Covid-19 but also an introspection from an academiccum-market participant on the value of debt. Original work from myself and colleagues at NIESR examines the political framework, the theory of monetary and fiscal interactions, how politicians seem to revise expenditure plans, how changes in economic prospects also matter for revision and then the case of issuing different types of debt. Finally, we are very grateful that two former Chancellors have agreed to write Forewords to this book and that the current Head of the Government Economic Service has supported our interest in developing more attention on fiscal policy. Obviously, none of them necessarily agree with any of the points made or conclusions drawn. It is our simple hope that our line of enquiry will motivate serious examination of our fiscal settlement. While what we say cannot necessarily be thought to be the Treasury View, it is certainly the view from Dean Trench Street. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, fiscal framework, macroprudential policy, central banks, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E62 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesro:61&r= |
| By: | Liepmann, Hannah (ILO International Labour Organization); Pignatti, Clemente (ILO International Labour Organization) |
| Abstract: | We analyze for the first time the welfare effects of unemployment benefits (UBs) in a context of high informality, exploiting matched administrative and survey data with individual-level information on UB receipt, formal and informal employment, wages and consumption. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that dismissal from a formal job causes a large drop in consumption, which is between three to six times larger than estimates for developed economies. This is generated by a permanent shift of UB recipients towards informal employment, where they earn substantially lower wages. We then exploit a kink in benefits and show that more generous UBs delay program exit through a substitution of formal with informal employment. However, the disincentive effects are small and short-lived. Because of the high insurance value and the low efficiency costs, welfare effects from increasing UBs are positive for a range of values of the coefficient of relative risk aversion. |
| Keywords: | unemployment benefits, welfare effects, informal employment |
| JEL: | J46 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14601&r= |
| By: | Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Demertzis, Michail (Democritus University of Thrace, School of Law); Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In today’s unprecedented transformation in the global socio-economic system caused by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis and the escalating fourth industrial revolution, reinforcing innovative entrepreneurship appears a significant policy objective that can lead to overall socio-economic development. In this drastically changed context, entrepreneurship support policies seem that they need to be both conceptually and practically readjusted, simultaneously at the macro, meso, and micro levels. This paper investigates the case of public entrepreneurship policies in the European Union (EU), aiming to find specific patterns and suggest a new multilevel policy framework. Initially, the article offers a brief overview of the related trends created in the emerging post-COVID-19 era. Next, the “competitiveness web” perspective in terms of “macro-meso-micro” level synthesis is presented, considering that it can function as a theoretical framework for entrepreneurship reinforcement. Recent EU entrepreneurship support policy guidelines are then explored, emphasizing the latest trends and the development opportunities arising with the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility establishment to deal with the consequences of the current health and socio-economic crisis. Upon this basis, the paper concludes in a proposal for an integrated “macro-meso-micro” policy, placing at the epicenter the mechanism of the Institutes of Local Development and Innovation (ILDI). This policy aims to strengthen the spatially-located firms to reposition and readapt the “Stra.Tech.Man” potential they have and activate in their local business ecosystem (strategy-technology-management synthesis). |
| Keywords: | Competitiveness web; Entrepreneurship support policy; EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF); European integration; European public policy; ILDI; Macro-meso-micro; Post-COVID-19 era; Stra.Tech.Man approach |
| JEL: | L26 L53 O52 |
| Date: | 2021–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_005&r= |
| By: | Trejo-Pech, Carlos J.O.; White, Susan |
| Abstract: | Cal-Maine Foods Inc., the largest shell egg producer in the world, had historically operated with low debt levels relative to debt ratios in other industries and within agribusiness. In its third fiscal quarter report, issued by the end of March 2021, Cal-Maine reported no debt in its balance sheet, making this company one of the few debt-free publicly traded agribusinesses in the U.S. This case analyzes Cal-Maine’s capital structure, which represents a rare case for exploring and challenging the notion of optimal capital structure in theory and practice. Understanding the rationale behind a debt-free firm’s policy is puzzling because financial theory predicts that adding debt up to certain level −the optimal capital structure− creates economic value. According to surveyed chief financial officers, there is also evidence that practitioners use an optimal capital structure framework for financial management decisions. By applying a framework allowing for both qualitative and quantitative analysis, this case reviews the benefits and costs of debt in the capital structure, as applied to Cal-Maine. The case asks students to evaluate potential recapitalization policies in which Cal-Maine adds debt to its capital structure and use debt proceeds plus excess cash to repurchase shares at the prevailing price as of the end of May 2021. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313132&r= |
| By: | Steve J. Bickley; Benno Torgler |
| Abstract: | As artificial intelligence (AI) thrives and propagates through modern life, a key question to ask is how to include humans in future AI? Despite human- involvement at every stage of the pr oduction process from conception and design through to implementation, modern AI is still often criticized for its black box characteristics. Sometimes, we do not know what really goes on inside or how and why certain conclusions are met. Future AI will face many dilemmas and ethical issu es unforeseen by their creators beyond those commonly discussed (e.g., trolley probl ems and variants of it) and to which solutions cannot be hard-coded and are often still up for debate. Given the sensitivity of such social and ethical dilemmas and the implications of these for human society at large, when and if our AI make the wrong choice we need to understand how they got there in order to make corrections and prevent recurrences. This is particularly true in situations where human livelihoods are at stake (e.g., health, well-being, finance, law) or when major individual or household decisions are taken. Doing so requires opening up the black box of AI; especially as they act, interact, and adapt in a human world and how they interact with other AI in this world. In this article, we argue for the application of cognitive architectures for ethical AI. In particular, for their potential contributions to AI transparency, ex plainability, and accountability. We need to understand how our AI get to the solutions they do, and we should seek to do this on a deeper level in terms of the machine-equivalents of motivations, attitudes, values, and so on. The path to future AI is long and winding but it could arrive faster than we think. In order to harness the positive potential outcomes of AI for humans and society ( and avoid the negatives), we need to understand AI more fully in the first place and we expect this will simultaneously contribute towards greater understanding of their human counterparts also. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Ethics; Cognitive Architectures; Intelligent Systems; Ethical AI; Society |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2021-27&r= |
| By: | François Bousquet (ESC Pau); Valérie Barbat (Kedge BS - Kedge Business School) |
| Abstract: | This research concerns collective social capital and, more specifically, the operating process of engagement networks. We equate the action of these networks with passing rituals. These rituals allow a business executive to move from one values' framework to another, under the effect of ritualized actions (recurring, symbolic, temporalized and spatialized actions). This assimilation makes it possible to mobilize a proven corpus in anthropology and management. The case study of the "Entreprendre Network" underlines the importance of the "separation phase" at the beginning of the operating process and shows the emergence of a community belonging of the subjects in the "preliminary phase" .At odds with certain management studies, our study also shows that the liminary subject is not here in an ambiguous situation in-between two moral standards and that its reflexivity remains individual, without impact on the rules and practices of the network. From a methodological point of view, it suggests replacing the notion of proximity with that of spatiality. Finally, it establishes managerial recommendations on the collective conduct of individual transformations. |
| Abstract: | La recherche conduite concerne le capital social collectif et, plus spécifiquement, le processus de fonctionnement des réseaux d'engagement. Nous assimilons l'action de ces réseaux à des rituels de passage. Ceux-ci permettent à un dirigeant d'entreprise de passer d'un référentiel de valeur à un autre, sous l'effet d'actions ritualisées (actions récurrentes, symboliques, temporalisées et spatialisées). Cette assimilation permet de mobiliser un corpus éprouvé en anthropologie et en management. L'étude du cas du Réseau Entreprendre souligne l'importance de la phase de séparation en début de processus et montre l'émergence d'une appartenance communautaire des sujets en phase liminaire. En décalage avec certains travaux en management, l'étude montre également que le sujet liminaire n'est pas ici dans une situation ambigüe entre deux référentiels moraux et que sa réflexivité demeure individuelle, sans impact sur les règles et pratiques du réseau. D'un point de vue méthodologique, elle propose de substituer la notion de proximité à celle de spatialité. Enfin, elle établit des préconisations managériales sur la conduite collective de transformations individuelles. |
| Keywords: | Cooperation,Preliminary phase,Engagement networks,Rites of passage,Social capital,Capital social collectif,Coopération,Phase liminaire,Réseaux d'engagement,Rites de passage |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277481&r= |
| By: | Cédric Vernier (UMR ITAP - Information – Technologies – Analyse Environnementale – Procédés Agricoles - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Denis Loeillet (UR GECO - Fonctionnement écologique et gestion durable des agrosystèmes bananiers et ananas - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Rallou Thomopoulos (UMR IATE - Ingénierie des Agro-polymères et Technologies Émergentes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM - Université de Montpellier - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Catherine Macombe (UMR ITAP - Information – Technologies – Analyse Environnementale – Procédés Agricoles - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | A major challenge of Sustainable Development Goal 12 "Responsible Consumption and Production" is to reduce food losses along production and supply chains. This is particularly critical for fresh food products, due to their perishable and fragile nature, which makes the coordination of the actors all the more crucial to avoid wastes and losses. The rise of new technologies, referred to as "Industry 4.0" powered by the internet of things, big data analytics and artificial intelligence, could bring new solutions to meet these needs. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) allow for frequent exchanges of huge amounts of information between actors in the agrofood chains to coordinate their activities. The aim of the chapter is to provide a state-of-the-art analysis on ICTs used in agrofood supply chains, with a special focus on the case of fresh fruits and vegetables, to analyze the potential and weaknesses which exist in different forms of supply chains for ICTs becoming a "resource" (precious, rare, non-imitable, and nonsubstitutable) prospect and to suggest promising ICTs in this context. |
| Keywords: | food sustainability,food supply chain,innovation in food,food waste and SDGs,ICTs,objectifs de développement durable |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03280502&r= |
| By: | Lukas Menkhoff; Carsten Schröder |
| Abstract: | We present evidence from a repeated survey on risky asset holdings carried out on a representative sample of the German population six times between April and June 2020. Given the size of the Covid-19 shock, we find little evidence of portfolio rebalancing in April 2020. In May, however, individual investors started buying heavily, fueling market recovery. The cross-section shows large differences as young, educated, high income, and risk tolerant investors are net buyers throughout and, thus, benefit from the stock market recovery. Older individuals, parents of young children, and individuals affected by adverse liquidity shocks from Covid-19 are net sellers. Given the high risk of illness, older people are hit by dual blows to both health and finances. |
| Keywords: | Risky assets, distributional effects, individual investment behavior, health and income shocks, expected adverse shocks |
| JEL: | D31 G50 H31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1962&r= |
| By: | Xuan, Ngo Thanh; Linh, Hoai; , Khuc The Anh; Anh, Nguyen Khoa Duc |
| Abstract: | There are many types of risks related to banking operations such as credit risk, interest risk, operational risk. Problems related to moral hazard have led to considerable setbacks for the economy in general and banking system in particular. Besides, moral hazard is an economic and financial terminology and is used to denote the risk generated from the deterioration in ethical conduct. Hence, authors aim at reviewing theoretical framework for determinants impacting moral hazard in banks. |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rq463&r= |
| By: | Ferreiros Amura, Pedro Genaro |
| Abstract: | La presente investigación analiza el cambio tecnológico del sector triguero núcleo del sudeste bonaerense argentino y su impacto sobre los niveles de productividad para los años comprendidos entre 2002/03 y 2018/19. A tal fin, se utilizó una metodología de números índices de Paasche y Laspeyres para calcular y determinar cambios tecnológicos en el sistema de producción triguero. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que en el período analizado hubo un retroceso tecnológico, cambiando métodos productivos con nivel tecnológico alto por métodos con bajo nivel. Estas decisiones están relacionadas con el esquema de incentivos imperante en el período analizado. |
| Keywords: | Cambio Tecnológico; Números Indices; Productividad; Trigo; |
| Date: | 2020–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3499&r= |
| By: | naryono, endang (STIE PASIM SUKABUMI) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to determine the working capital turnover of PT Gudang Garam, the development of the company's performance at PT Gudang Garam, and to determine the effect of working capital turnover on the company's performance at PT Gudang Garam, Tbk. The research method used is the ex-post facto method. This study uses primary data and secondary data obtained from financial and non-financial reports from PT Gudang Garam. To test the hypothesis, simple regression was used. Based on the results of the analysis, it shows that there is a positive influence between working capital turnover at PT Gudang Garam. The level of closeness of the relationship (correlation) of the two variables is quite strong, namely r = 0.752 with a correlation coefficient value of r > 0. The level of influence achieved is 56.55%, and the remaining 43.45% is influenced by other factors. Meanwhile, by testing the hypothesis by using the t-test, the t-count value = 5.947 and the t-table value = 0.997. Based on the t-count value, the T-count value is greater than T-table H0 is in the rejection area. The results of simple linear regression analysis that every 1X (times) increase in working capital turnover, the company's performance will increase by 7.462%. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8bq6v&r= |
| By: | Alejandra Bellatin; Gabriela Galassi |
| Keywords: | Digital technologies have helped maintain economic activity while allowing people to remain physically distant throughout the COVID-19 crisis. This note shows that the number of online postings for jobs related to the production of digital technologies in Canada decreased less than the number for other jobs and recovered more quickly after lockdowns were lifted. |
| JEL: | E24 J2 J23 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-18&r= |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha (World Bank); El Lahga, Abdel Rahmen (University of Tunis); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Tunisia's reforms and agile shift to a more democratic political system since a major political revolution in 2011 has not prevented continued and rising citizen discontent. While this paper does not directly analyze this vexing problem, it assesses welfare indicators and labor markets nationally, regionally, and across different population groups—such as women and youth—over the last two decades. The paper shows that while Tunisia has significantly reduced poverty between 2000 and 2019, the profile of the poor has not changed much: poverty remains concentrated in rural and western regions, mainly among households with younger men without education and headed by someone working in low-productivity sectors such as agriculture and construction. Moreover, the share of the vulnerable Tunisian population at risk of falling into poverty is quite large, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, even though poverty had been declining over the past two decades. Non-monetary dimensions of well-being, such as access to basic services, are also unevenly distributed across regions and population groups. COVID-19 has further aggravated these disparities and is reversing Tunisia's poverty reduction gains. The paper sheds light into the issues that require policy attention on poverty. |
| Keywords: | poverty, inequality, Tunisia |
| JEL: | J31 F16 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14597&r= |
| By: | Marcelo Randolfo da Costa Januário (LCA Consultores); Mauro Sayar Ferreira (UFMG) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the presence of the J-curve and the Marshall-Lerner condition after recognizing that terms of trade respond endogenously to global demand and supply shocks, which we identify from a structural VAR estimated with Bayesian techniques for the Brazilian economy, a small open economy with a strong commodity sector. The J-curve is not observed for total trade, capital goods, or consumption goods, but it is verified for fuel, which Brazil exports and imports. The Marshall-Lerner condition is mostly verified, but the volume exported tends not to behave as expected considering its relation to terms of trade, since global income effect plays a major role for determining the quantum exported. The volume imported reacts as expected based on its relation to terms of trade and domestic GDP, with the last appearing to play the most prominent role. The expansion in the exported volume of capital and consumption goods following an improvement in terms of trade runs against the presence of the Dutch disease, at least in the business cycle frequency. |
| Keywords: | J-curve; Marshall-Lerner condition; terms of trade; global shocks; SVAR |
| JEL: | F14 F41 F62 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td635&r= |
| By: | Volckart, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Scholars agree that a core feature of the political style of the Holy Roman Empire was the focus on consensus, without which policies at the level of the Empire were impossible. The present article demonstrates that the consensus on which decisions of the imperial estates was based tended to be superficial and was often in danger of breaking down. This was because the diet’s open and sequential voting procedure allowed the bandwagon effect to distort outcomes. An analysis of the votes cast in the princes’ college of the diet of 1555 shows that low-status members of the college regularly imitated the decisions of high-status voters. Reforming the system would have required accepting that the members of the college were equals – an idea no one was prepared to countenance. Hence, superficial and transitory agreements remained a systematic feature of politics at the level of the Empire. |
| Keywords: | bandwagon effect; voting; early modern parliamentarism; Holy Roman Empire |
| JEL: | H11 N43 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111613&r= |
| By: | Billur Aksoy (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute); Ian Chadd (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute); Boon Han Koh (University of East Anglia) |
| Abstract: | We study discrimination in prosocial domains against sexual minorities using a sharing (dictator) game in an online experiment, where these individuals have the opportunity to signal their identity. We find that political affiliations matter: Republican heterosexual individuals are less generous to others who are perceived to be sexual minorities, while their Democratic counterparts are slightly more generous. This is robust to alternative specifications and cannot be explained by perceptions about the recipient’s political leaning. Moreover, women, but not men, are less likely to signal their sexual minority status when they are aware of the potential payoff implications of their decisions. |
| Keywords: | taste-based discrimination, identity, LGBTQ+, political preferences, gender. |
| JEL: | C90 D90 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2021-08&r= |
| By: | Pal, Sarmistha (University of Surrey); Chowdhury, Prabal Roy (Indian Statistical Institute); Saher, Zoya (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of legislated land ceiling size on capital investment and industrialisation in the Indian states. India's land ceiling legislations of 1960s and 1970s imposed a ceiling on maximum land holdings and redistributed above-ceiling lands. These ceiling legislations, effectively implemented or not, had increased land fragmentation and increased transactions costs of acquiring land for both strategic and non-strategic reasons. States with smaller ceiling size are thus likely to have (i) lower capital investment; (ii) less factories and lower industrialisation too. Ceteris paribus, estimates of both relative (post-1971 ceiling legislations relative to pre-1971 ones) and aggregate effects of legislated ceiling size lend support to these hypotheses, after eliminating competing explanations. These results offer insights about how to reduce transactions costs of land acquisition, policies that we claim are also applicable beyond India. |
| Keywords: | land reform, land acquisition, land ceiling size, transaction costs of land acquisition, investment in capital, industrialisation, India |
| JEL: | H70 K11 L38 O14 Q15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14624&r= |
| By: | Nagara, Patria; , yolanda |
| Abstract: | The indicators of success in macro development can be measured from the economic growth, which is reflected in changes in the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The factors which affect the economic growth are very complex. This study analyzes the economic growth and the factors that affect Sumatra island. The data used is panel data with descriptive analysis techniques and multiple linear regression. Based on the research results: Education, economic openness, road infrastructure, and investment have a positive and significant effect on economic growth and poverty and unemployment have a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Besides, the results of panel data explained that the openness of the economy to economic growth is very low, while the highest is education. |
| Date: | 2020–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rfcuj&r= |
| By: | Colmer, Jonathan (University of Virginia); Lin, Dajun (American Institutes for Research); Liu, Siying (Amazon); Shimshack, Jay (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | Conventional wisdom suggests that marginal damages from particulate matter pollution are high in less-developed countries because they are highly polluted. Using administrative data on the universe of births and deaths, we explore birthweight and mortality effects of gestational particulate matter exposure in high-pollution yet high-income Hong Kong. The marginal effects of particulates on birthweight are large but we fail to detect an effect on neonatal mortality. We interpret our stark mortality results in a comparative analysis of pollution-mortality relationships across studies. We provide early evidence that marginal mortality damages from pollution are high in less-developed countries because they are less developed, not because they are more polluted. |
| Keywords: | particulate matter, early childhood, comparative analysis |
| JEL: | Q53 I15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14591&r= |
| By: | Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric & Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Taofeek O. Ayinde (Department of Economics, Fountain University, Osogbo, Nigeria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, 6708 Pine Street, Omaha, NE 68182, USA) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we offer a global perspective to the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic using the multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive Model of Chudik et al. (2020) with focus on real equity prices and real exchange rates. We document, with the generalized impulse responses that the impact of the pandemic on real equity prices is generally negative across the country groupings and the highest negative impact recorded in 2020Q2. The biggest losers among the advanced countries are the advanced Asia Pacific stock markets, while the overall losers are the emerging countries which are compensated with domestic currency appreciation. Our results appear to support the relative policy effectiveness in the emerging economies where the counterfactual analysis shows that the equity markets exhibit reversal to pre-pandemic equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | Threshold-GVAR, financial markets, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C33 G15 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202154&r= |
| By: | Shahram Heydari; Garyfallos Konstantinoudis; Abdul Wahid Behsoodi |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has been influencing travel behaviour in many urban areas around the world since the beginning of 2020. As a consequence, bike-sharing schemes have been affected partly due to the change in travel demand and behaviour as well as a shift from public transit. This study estimates the varying effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the London bike-sharing system (Santander Cycles) over the period March-December 2020. We employed a Bayesian second-order random walk time-series model to account for temporal correlation in the data. We compared the observed number of cycle hires and hire time with their respective counterfactuals (what would have been if the pandemic had not happened) to estimate the magnitude of the change caused by the pandemic. The results indicated that following a reduction in cycle hires in March and April 2020, the demand rebounded from May 2020, remaining in the expected range of what would have been if the pandemic had not occurred. This could indicate the resiliency of Santander Cycles. With respect to hire time, an important increase occurred in April, May, and June 2020, indicating that bikes were hired for longer trips, perhaps partly due to a shift from public transit. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11589&r= |
| By: | Ji, Yueting; Huang, Qianyao; Liu, Haiyang; Phillips, Caleb |
| Abstract: | Overweight employees are viewed as lazy, slow, inactive, and even incapable. Even if such attributes are false, this perspective can seriously undermine others' evaluation of their work performance. The current study explores a broader phenomenon of weight bias that has an effect on weight change. In a longitudinal study with a time lag of 6 months, we surveyed 226 supervisor-employee dyads. We found supervisor perceptions of employee weight change notably altered their evaluation of the employee performance from Time 1, especially following low vs. high Time-1 performance evaluation. Meanwhile, the moderating effects among different levels of supervisor anti-fat bias functioned as boundary conditions for such performance evaluation alteration. In particular, the interaction between the Time-1 performance evaluation and the impact of supervisor perception of employee weight change on the Time-2 performance evaluation was significant only if supervisors held a stronger anti-fat bias. |
| Keywords: | anti-fat bias; performance evaluation; phase-shifting perspective; weight bias; weight change |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111589&r= |
| By: | Oliver Kalsbach (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Sebastian Rausch (ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University, Germany, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA) |
| Abstract: | Economists tend to view a uniform emissions price as the most cost-effective approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper offers a different view, focusing on economies where society values the well-being of future generations more than private actors. Employing analytical and numerical general equilibrium models, we show that a uniform carbon price is efficient only under restrictive assumptions about technology homogeneity and intertemporal decision-making. Non-uniform pricing spurs capital accumulation and benefits future generations. Depending on sectoral heterogeneity in the substitutability between capital and energy inputs, we find that optimal carbon prices differ widely across sectors and yield substantial welfare gains relative to uniform pricing. |
| Keywords: | Sectoral Carbon Pricing, Differentiated Carbon Taxes, Climate Policy, Social Discounting |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 Q43 H23 C61 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-360&r= |
| By: | Advani, Arun (University of Warwick, CAGE, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and the LSE International Inequalities Institute (III)); Hughson, Helen (London School of Economics III); Tarrant, Hannah (London School of Economics III) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we model the revenue that could be raised from an annual and a one-off wealth tax of the design recommended by Advani, Chamberlain and Summers (2020b). We examine the distributional effects of the tax, both in terms of wealth and other characteristics. We also estimate the share of taxpayers who would face liquidity constraints in meeting their tax liability. We find that an annual wealth tax charging 0.17% on wealth above £500,000 could generate £10 billion in revenue, before administrative costs. Alternatively, a one-off tax charging 4.8% (effectively 0.95% per year, paid over a five-year period) on wealth above the same threshold, would generate £250 billion in revenue. To put our revenue estimates into context, we present revenue estimates and costings for some commonly-proposed reforms to the existing set of taxes on capital. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1369&r= |
| By: | Muckenhuber, Mattias; Rehm, Miriam; Schnetzer, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We investigate how previous generations of migrants and their children integrated into Austrian society, as measured by their wealth ownership. Using data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS), we document a positive average migrant wealth gap between migrant and native households. However, the raw gap is almost negligible for second generation migrant households, whereas it rises across the unconditional net wealth distribution for first generation migrant households and peaks at more than e140,000 around the 75th percentile. Decomposing the partial effects of a set of covariates using RIF regressions suggests that the lack of inheritances and the presence of children have the highest explanatory power for the migrant wealth gap of first generation migrant household. For second generation migrant households, inheritances have the highest impact, but they contribute negatively towards the explanation of the migrant wealth gap. In general, the covariates in our analysis can explain only a small part of the migrant wealth gap. Given the similarity of native and second generation migrant households, we cannot reject the hypothesis that migrants in the past integrated into Austrian society by acquiring comparable wealth levels. |
| Keywords: | Migration,Wealth Distribution,Wealth Gap,Unconditional Quantile Regression |
| JEL: | C31 D31 F22 G51 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:15&r= |
| By: | Gonzalez, Felipe (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Prem, Mounu |
| Abstract: | Chile has experienced more than thirty years of democracy at the shadow of the seventeen-year dictatorship led by Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990). This chapter provides an overview of the dictatorial legacies with an emphasis on the distribution of economic and political power, as viewed from the most recent literature in economics. We also describe the waves of discontent which have attempted to suppress the most important legacies during the past twenty years. We end with a discussion of the current path of institutional change that could put Pinochet’s legacy to an end. |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:v5yjf&r= |
| By: | Rahmat, Al Fauzi |
| Abstract: | During 2000-2018 various disease outbreaks (extraordinary occurrences) continued to occur in Indonesia. Its endemic disease outbreak has fluctuated with other endemic, both infectious and non-communicable diseases. This epidemic's vulnerability gives concern for the government to try to deal with various outbreaks that hit Indonesian citizens. This paper aims to review and analyze frequent outbreaks and the extent of the Indonesian government's in tackling disease outbreaks – including policies and its health resources. By analyzing the successes and failures of policies that have occurred, our findings conclude that adequate governance is needed in dealing with disease outbreaks –including Diarrhea, DFH, and Measles. Therefore, the government's key concern is the need for new policies alternative in dealing with disease outbreaks (in cases; Diarrhea, DFH, and Measles), health budget ability, equitable development of health facilities, and equal medical distribution personnel. |
| Date: | 2021–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zqb69&r= |
| By: | Syngjoo Choi; Byung-Yeon Kim; Jungmin Lee; Sokbae Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the development of competitiveness by comparing three Korean groups in South Korea, born and raised in three countries with distinct institutional environments: South Korea, North Korea, and China. Results based on laboratory experiments show that North Korean refugees are significantly less competitive than South Koreans or Korean-Chinese immigrants. Furthermore, analyses through the lens of a choice model with probability weighting suggest that lower cognitive ability may be associated with lower levels of expected performance, more pessimistic subject beliefs and greater aversion to competition. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.08097&r= |
| By: | Hashibul Hassan (Department of Economics, Monash University, Australia); Asad Islam (Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability (CDES) and Department of Economics, Monash University); Abu Siddique (Economics Group, Technical University of Munich); Liang Choon Wang (Department of Economics, Monash University, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Prolonged school closures due to political unrests, teacher strikes, natural disasters, and public health crises can be detrimental to student learning in developing countries. Using a randomized controlled experiment in 200 Bangladeshi villages, we evaluate the impact of over-the-phone mentoring and homeschooling support delivered by volunteers on the learning outcomes of primary school children during school closures caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The telementoring program improved the learning outcomes of treated children by 0.75 SD and increased homeschooling involvement of treated mothers by 0.64 SD. The impacts on learning are driven primarily by the direct mentoring of children and to some extent also by the increased homeschooling involvement of mothers. Academically weaker children and households from relatively lower socioeconomic backgrounds benefitted the most from telementoring. These findings suggest that learning crises in low-resource settings can be addressed by simple and very low-cost technology solutions. |
| Keywords: | Telementoring, homeschooling, school closure, primary education, randomized experiment, rural areas. |
| JEL: | C93 I21 I24 P46 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:13&r= |
| By: | Adimora, Katia |
| Abstract: | This article deploys descriptive case study to explore Mexican immigration to the US in the first 100 days of Joe Biden’s presidency. Firstly, the expanding voting size of Latino/Mexican community in the US is being recognised, and consequently, its influence on shaping immigration laws. Secondly, the immigration documents are being analysed to study their implications for Mexican immigration. In some cases, the contrast between Trump’s and Biden’s immigration circumstances are being highlighted. Even though immigration changes have been introduced formally, most of their practical applications are yet to be seen. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7tn8v&r= |
| By: | Stamm, Andreas; Strupat, Christoph; Hornidge, Anna-Katharina |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing vaccination process calls for decisive, internationally coordinated and forward-looking action. We propose short-, medium- and long-term actions and emphasise that the political pressure for action should not only focus on short-term management, but on building long-term structures that are crucial to prepare for future epidemics or pandemics. Four key challenges need to be addressed in order to achieve global control of COVID-19 by using vaccines. First, vaccines need to be produced at scale; second, they should be priced affordably; third, they have to be allocated globally so that they are available where needed; and fourth, they have to be deployed and utilised in local communities. Challenges in production are producing some of the main bottlenecks, but the others - in particular vaccine scepticism and utilisation - need to be considered early enough to enable smooth global vaccination campaigns. Addressing the four key challenges, we recommend the following short, medium- and long-term actions. In the short term, we advise accelerating global vaccination efforts by scaling up financial support for the COVAX initiative. In the medium term, we suggest establishing regional production centres in priority countries, providing the necessary intellectual property through voluntary patent pools and fostering information campaigns and civil society participation to increase vaccination willingness and utilisation. In the long term, we recommend establishing Global Pandemic Centres of Excellence in all world regions - analogous to the CGIAR system in the agricultural sector - that are responsible for medical research, vaccine production, distribution and delivery. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:192021&r= |
| By: | Olivier Guillot; Antoine Parent |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the issue of the executions of French soldiers during the WW1 in a quantitative perspective. The database of French Ministry of Defense “Shot in the First World War†is exploited here for the first time to provide a complete description of the statistical portrait of the soldiers who were sentenced to death by a council of war or summarily executed. This database provides individual characteristics (skills, occupations), military variables (corps, rank) to which we have added contextual variables related to living conditions, weather conditions, illiteracy rates, dummies for regional language, county’s level of alcohol consumption, county’s voters abstention rate. Specifically, we investigate whether the variations in the number of executions over time were related to the intensity of engagements or to pacifist motives or other political considerations, as suggested in the literature. Two main findings emerge from our research: conversely to conventional wisdom, the soldiers executed in 1917, the year of the mutinies, did not differ from the rest of the sample. If statistical differences exist between years, the difference refers to 1914, not 1917. Our analysis leads to nuance the pacifist explanation. We give evidence that the conditions of survival on the front and the intensity of fights were the two main drivers of executions. |
| Keywords: | World War I, Defense economics, Conflict, Military history |
| JEL: | N44 K14 K42 D74 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:097&r= |
| By: | Gill Wyness (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, University College London) |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic and resulting disruption to schooling led to the Government cancelling GCSE and A level exams in 2020 and 2021, with 2022's exams also likely to be disrupted. The cancellation of GCSEs, in particular, has renewed debate around the value of high-stakes testing, and prompted some politicians, practitioners and commentators to call for their permanent abolition. The main objections to GCSE exams typically centre around two issues: 1) that high-stakes testing of this nature leads to narrowing of the curriculum with teachers having to "teach to the test" rather than provide a holistic learning experience, and 2) that high-stakes testing creates excessive stress for teenagers. Former Prime Minister John Major recently called for the abolition of GCSEs for these reasons, stating that "I have come to dislike these examinations due to the degree of stress and strain they impose upon students. Without the examinations, it would surely be possible to offer pupils a wider syllabus, providing a more rounded education." |
| Keywords: | assessment; age 16; high-stakes testing; examinations; wellbeing; coursework |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeob:14&r= |
| By: | Actis Di Pasquale, Eugenio; Iglesias-Onofrio, Marcela; Pérez de Guzmán, Sofía; Viego, Valentina |
| Abstract: | El objetivo de este artículo es analizar, desde una perspectiva de género, la percepción y la valoración del teletrabajo durante la pandemia por parte de mujeres y hombres residentes en varios países iberoamericanos. Este estudio tiene como base la información recogida en la Encuesta Iberoamericana sobre Rutinas Laborales y Cotidianas en tiempos de COVID-19 que llevó a cabo la Red Iberoamericana de Investigación sobre Trabajo, Género y Vida Cotidiana (TRAGEVIC) durante los meses de abril y mayo de 2020. Se concluye que en todos los países implicados en el estudio, con pocas diferencias significativas, la introducción masiva del teletrabajo debido a la crisis de la COVID-19 ha tendido a acentuar las desigualdades de género que ya existían previamente, tanto en el ámbito laboral como en la familia. |
| Keywords: | Teletrabajo; Brecha de Género; Aislamiento Social; COVID-19; |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3513&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Minh-Hoang |
| Abstract: | Inspired by the semiconducting principle, I propose two ultimate goals to counter climate change and heal the environment as substitutes for the carbon neutrality objective. The first ultimate goal is to eliminate the negative anthropogenic impacts (or human-made eco-deficits) on nature. The second ultimate goal is to heal the environment or increase the human-made eco-surplus. Here, the NEV growth has to be considered with equivalent priority as economic growth, or even more in certain circumstances. |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dkcmt&r= |
| By: | Hammond, Fernando |
| Abstract: | Hace medio siglo que en el universo de las empresas existe una divisoria de aguas entre aquellas que se responsabilizan por los problemas de las comunidades donde operan y aquellas que no. En las ciencias sociales mucho se ha discutido sobre la conveniencia de que las empresas dediquen recursos a cuestiones que exceden a sus negocios. No obstante, ya sea por vocación, interés, moda -o la razón que sea- existen empresarios que además de buscar un beneficio económico se preocupan por ayudar a sus comunidades ¿Qué sucede en Mar del Plata?, ¿existen empresarios con responsabilidad social?, ¿cómo se organizan? Estas son algunas de las preguntas que guían el trabajo que venimos desarrollando un grupo de investigadores de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMDP). |
| Keywords: | Responsabilidad Social; Empresas; |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3478&r= |
| By: | Crescenzi, Riccardo; De Filippis, Fabrizio; Giua, Mara; Vaquero Pineiro, Cristina |
| Abstract: | Can Geographical Indications (GIs) promote local economic development in rural areas? This paper explores the impact of GIs that identify and endorse agri-food products which are strictly embedded within the territory from which they originate. Examining Italian wine protected by GIs through an innovative dataset and by means of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences models make it possible to compare the local economic development trajectories of rural municipalities afforded GIs with the correspondent dynamics of a counterfactual group of similar municipalities without GI status since 1951. Rural municipalities with GIs experience population growth and economic reorganization towards non-farming sectors, which frequently involve higher value-added activities. |
| Keywords: | geographical Indications;; rural development; EU policies; local development; propensity score matching; difference in differences; 639633-MASSIVE-ERC-2014-STG); H2020 project BATModel; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | O18 Q18 R10 |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110767&r= |
| By: | Georges Prat (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Remzi Uctum (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We propose a two-horizon interest rate term structure model where the maturity of the riskless rate is the one of the debt security whose duration equals investor's desired horizon. Our framework thus relaxes the usual assumptions of the literature that the riskless rate is unchangingly the short period rate. A representative investor compares at each of the 3and the 6-month horizons the risk premium offered by the market and the one they require to take a risky position, the latter premium being determined by the portfolio choice theory. Due to market frictions, the deviation between the offered and required risk premium evolves according to a mean-reverting process. Using 3-month ahead survey-based expectations of the US 3-month Treasury Bill rate, we employ Kalman filtering to estimate the market risk premium where the preference parameter of investors for alternative horizons is time-varying. We find that the market comprises both a group of agents with 3-month preferred horizon and a group of agents with 6-month preferred horizon with a weigh of two-thirds for the first group. |
| Keywords: | interest rates,term structure,risk premium |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319099&r= |
| By: | Philippe Bacchetta; Rachel Cordonier; Ouarda Merrouche |
| Abstract: | An unintended consequence of loose US monetary policy is the increase in currency risk exposure abroad. Using firm-level data on corporate bond issuances in 17 emerging market economies (EME) between 2003 and 2015, we find that EME companies are more likely to issue bonds in foreign currency when US interest rates are low. This increase occurs across the board, including for firms more vulnerable to foreign exchange exposure, and is particularly strong for bonds issued in local markets. Interestingly, capital controls on bond inflows significantly decrease the likelihood of issuing in foreign currency and can even eliminate the adverse impact of low US interest rates. In contrast, macroprudential foreign exchange regulations tend to increase foreign currency issuances of non-financial corporates, although this effect can be significantly reduced using capital controls. |
| Keywords: | Foreign currency, corporate bonds, emerging markets, capital controls, currency risk |
| JEL: | G21 G30 E44 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2021-11&r= |
| By: | Conti, Gabriella (University College London); Pizzo, Elena (University College London); Morris, Stephen (University of Cambridge); Melnychuk, Mariya (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Child maltreatment is a major public health problem with significant consequences for individual victims and for society. In this paper we quantify for the first time the economic costs of fatal and non-fatal child maltreatment in the UK in relation to several short-, medium- and long-term outcomes ranging from physical and mental health problems, to labour market outcomes and welfare use. We combine novel regression analysis of rich data from the National Child Development Study and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing with secondary evidence to produce an incidence-based estimate of the lifetime costs of child maltreatment from a societal perspective. The discounted average lifetime incidence cost of non-fatal child maltreatment by a primary caregiver is estimated at £89,390 (95% uncertainty interval £44,896 to £145,508); the largest contributors to this are costs from social care, short-term health and long-term labour market outcomes. The discounted lifetime cost per death from child maltreatment is estimated at £940,758, comprising health care and lost productivity costs. Our estimates provide the first comprehensive benchmark to quantify the costs of child maltreatment in the UK and the benefits of interventions aimed at reducing or preventing it. |
| Keywords: | child maltreatment, incidence-based approach, lifetime costs, health care costs, productivity losses, sensitivity analysis |
| JEL: | I18 J17 D61 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14612&r= |
| By: | Philip C. Solimine (Department of Economics and Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University); R. Mark Isaac (Department of Economics, Florida State University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we conduct a market experiment with the opportunity for sellers to send a nonbinding advertisement of their product quality. We examine the effects of including a reputation aggregation system for sellers in these markets. In order to closely match the setting of real-life markets, we conduct a laboratory experiment designed to emulate an online marketplace. In some sessions, we prompt buyers to respond to their purchases with a canonical "five-star" rating, and display the average rating to buyers in each round. We find substantial efficiency gains from the addition of the ratings system, but not enough to obtain fully efficient market outcomes. These efficiency gains come primarily through a decrease in false advertising behavior by the sellers, as they compete to build reputations. We structurally examine the formation of reputations by the sellers (with and without ratings) and the effect of these reputations on the decisions of buyers and sellers in the market. Using a bipartite network of transaction data, we will quantify the effects of ratings in promoting trust and supporting diverse, connected, and high quality markets. |
| Keywords: | Product Quality, Seller Reputation, Ratings, Experimental Market Design, Plat- forms, Adverse Selection |
| JEL: | L1 L2 D4 D8 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsu:wpaper:wp2021_08_01&r= |
| By: | Giancarlo Corsetti; Anna Lipínska; Giovanni Lombardo |
| Abstract: | Crises and tail events have asymmetric effects across borders, raising the value of arrangements improving insurance of macroeconomic risk. Using a two-country DSGE model, we provide an analytical and quantitative analysis of the channels through which countries gain from sharing (tail) risk. Riskier countries gain in smoother consumption but lose in relative wealth and average consumption. Safer countries benefit from higher wealth and better average terms of trade. Calibrated using the empirical distribution of moments of GDP-growth across countries, the model suggests significant quantitative effects. We offer an algorithm for the correct solution of the equilibrium using DSGE models under complete markets, at higher order of approximation. |
| Keywords: | international risk sharing, asymmetry, fat tails, welfare |
| JEL: | F15 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:958&r= |
| By: | Khouiled, Brahim; Sellami, Ahmed; Saheb, Oualid |
| Abstract: | This paper answers the problem of the existence of an inflation rate that stimulates economic growth in Algeria during the period 2000:1-2018:2. We use the TAR model with the brutal transition. The results showed that the rate of inflation stimulating economic growth in Algeria is between 1.688-4.08% annually, a threshold close to that of industrial countries. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Economic Growth; Threshold Models; تضخم ; نمو اقتصادي ; نماذج العتبة |
| JEL: | E31 O49 |
| Date: | 2019–12–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109024&r= |
| By: | Xu, Yongsheng; Yoshihara, Naoki |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses issues of axiomatic bargaining problems over opportunity assignments. The fair arbitrator uses the principle of "equal opportunity" for all players to make the recommendation on resource allocations. A framework in such a context is developed and the egalitarian solution to standard bargaining problems is reformulated and axiomatically characterized. |
| Keywords: | Opportunity sets, bargaining over opportunity assignments, egalitarian solution |
| JEL: | C71 C78 D60 D63 D70 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:725&r= |
| By: | Anuradha Singh |
| Abstract: | Using three rounds of NSS datasets, the present paper attempts to understand the relationship between income inequality and intergenerational income mobility (IGIM) by segregating generations into social and income classes. The originality of the paper lies in assessing the IGIM using different approaches, which we expect to contribute to the existing literature. We conclude that the country has low-income mobility and high inequality which is no longer associated with a particular social class in India. Also, both may have a negative or positive relationship, hence needs to be studied at a regional level. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12702&r= |
| By: | Dirk Bergemann (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Edmund Yeh (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Northeastern University); Jinkun Zhang (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Northeastern University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze nonlinear pricing with finite information. We consider a multi-product environment where each buyer has preferences over a d-dimensional variety of goods. The seller is limited to offering a finite number n of d-dimensional choices. The limited menu reflects a finite communication capacity between the buyer and seller. We identify necessary conditions that the optimal finite menu must satisfy, for either the socially efficient or the revenue-maximizing mechanism. These conditions require that information be bundled, or "quantized," optimally. We introduce vector quantization and establish that the losses due to finite menus converge to zero at a rate of 1/n^2/^d. In the canonical model with one-dimensional products and preferences, this establishes that the loss resulting from using the n-item menu converges to zero at a rate proportional to 1/n^2. |
| Keywords: | Mechanism Design, Nonlinear Pricing, Multi-Dimension, Multi-Product, Private Information, Limited Information, Quantization, Information Theory |
| JEL: | D82 D83 D86 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2297&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/155&r= |
| By: | Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Sydney); Dahmann, Sarah C. (University of Melbourne); Kamhöfer, Daniel A. (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE)); Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah (Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf) |
| Abstract: | We propose a broadly applicable empirical approach to classify individuals as time-consistent versus naïve or sophisticated regarding their self-control limitations. Operationalizing our approach based on nationally representative data reveals that self-control problems are pervasive and that most people are at least partly aware of their limited self-control. Compared to naïfs, sophisticates have higher IQs, better educated parents, and are more likely to take up commitment devices. Accounting for both the level and awareness of self-control limitations has predictive power beyond one-dimensional notions of self-control that neglect awareness. Importantly, sophistication fully compensates for self-control problems when choices involve immediate costs and later benefits. Raising people's awareness of their own self-control limitations may thus assist them in overcoming any adverse consequences. |
| Keywords: | self-control, sophistication, naïveté, commitment devices, present bias |
| JEL: | D91 D01 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14609&r= |
| By: | Cutuli, Romina |
| Abstract: | En este artículo se abordarán las representaciones en torno al rol de las mujeres gestantes a través de las representaciones discursivas y visuales construidas en medios de comunicación masiva sobre tres casos de personas subrogantes "famosas". Se observarán las alusiones y las elusiones del carácter mercantil o del carácter afectivo de la tríada vincular establecida en la relación de subrogación: persona subrogante, mujer subrogada, niño/a nacido de la gestación. El deseo se efectiviza como derecho a través del mercado, lo que implica una acción de consumo, con las desigualdades interseccionales que ella implica. Al mismo tiempo, al menos en dos de los tres casos abordados, las personas subrogantes han construido una imagen de sus hijos públicamente exhibida en medios de comunicación y redes sociales que, a la postre, representa también una forma de mercantilización. Se propone pensar el vínculo en torno a la subrogación a partir de la tensión impuesta a las mujeres entre lo afectivo y lo económico como, en términos de Zelizer, "esferas separadas", y la perpetuación de este divorcio conceptual como un mecanismo de refuerzo de desigualdades interseccionales. |
| Keywords: | Gestación Subrogada; Representaciones; |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3539&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | labor market scarring risk; EE job creation; EE percent; yoy job creation; risks of labor market; B. aggregate behavior; Employment; Wages; Labor markets; Job destruction; Unemployment rate; Baltics |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/161&r= |
| By: | Campigotto, Nicola; Rapallini, Chiara; Rustichini, Aldo |
| Abstract: | Academic consensus about normative prescriptions on the ethnic and cultural composition of societies has been shifting in recent decades. It has evolved from what seemed desirable but was acknowledged to be unrealistic (the noble idea of a melting pot), to what is realistic because it has already happened, but might be undesirable in the long run: the multicultural diaspora. Plural societies, an unintended consequence of multiculturalism, lurk in the background. Thus scholars of social and economic questions, as well as societies, face a threehorned dilemma. We throw some light on the dilemma by examining school friendship networks in five European countries with recent immigration. Our results highlight the force of elective affinities in overcoming differences, but they also point to the countervailing forces of elective discordance that are currently driving increasing division. |
| Keywords: | Friendship,Homophily,Immigration,Networks,Social cohesion |
| JEL: | D85 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:910&r= |
| By: | Tong, Antonia |
| Abstract: | Compared to a Chinese investor, the U.S. investors invest in Fin-Tech evergreen fund is not a strange financial activity. In the fast-developing of different technology nowadays, the US. Fin-Tech evergreen investors are always attempting to catch the wave of the opportunity to invest in new financial technology companies that will almost like investing in Apple, Microsoft, SpaceX, or Teslar twenty years ago. This article intends to introduce, compare, and analyst the fin-tech evergreen development in both the USA and China. Fin-Tech Evergreen financing is a concept used to describe the gradual infusion of funds into a fin-tech company. It is feasible to organize for the receipt of venture capital money in advance. Nevertheless, with FinTech's evergreen investment, investors provide cash in incremental payments throughout the company's or product's development phase. It is a perpetual fund architecture with no set end date. It frequently provides investors with the ability to exit their commitment and allows the fund manager to acquire additional cash. Investors are allowed to reinvest cash generated by realized returns, thus the term "evergreen." With a thorough explanation of the two most powerful economic powers' investment direction of the evergreen fund, the general public will learn more about the evergreen fund's future and destiny. |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ybfr6&r= |
| By: | Raphael Flepp (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence that corporate boards violate the informativeness principle in their forced CEO turnover decisions by failing to ignore uninformative performance outcome signals. I show that CEOs of firms with barely positive shareholder returns in the previous year are less likely to be dismissed than CEOs of firms with barely negative returns, even though this return outcome is conditionally uninformative. I observe a similar pattern for stock returns relative to the S&P 500 index return: a firm's board is less likely to dismiss its CEO if the firm barely outperformed the S&P 500 index than if the firm barely underperformed the S&P 500 index. Moreover, I demonstrate that the tendency of boards to consider uninformative absolute return outcomes has decreased over time, while their tendency to consider uninformative relative return outcomes has increased over time. This suggests that boards have shifted their focus toward relative returns while continuing to violate the informativeness principle. |
| Keywords: | forced CEO turnover, board of directors, informativeness principle, outcome bias, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | G30 M51 D23 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zrh:wpaper:389&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Babcock University, Nigeria); Olumuyiwa G. Yinusa (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria); Tolulope O. Williams (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Rahmon A. Folami (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | While it is clear that financial depth and economic diversity are prerequisites for the realisation of growth and development objectives, heterogeneous factors that determines financial development remains imperfectly understood. This ambiguity in the structural relations between varied causative factors is more pronounced in Africa where conditions for growth and development remains inadequately met. Underexplored aspects such as geographic, political, economic and macroeconomic policy determinant of financial development in Africa could have culminated into the misalignment of the continent financialisation strategies. This paper takes the lead, diverse and holistic approach to assign numerical weights to these unobserved factors to reach conclusions that can redefine policy and research on Africa's financialisation objectives. We compared result along with the mean group (MG), common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators but relied on the AMG results because of its high precision, relevance and superiority in addressing core issues of cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity of regressors.Based on the AMG results, we found geographic, economic and macroeconomic policy factors to lead to financial development in Africa. However, our political/institutional composite index inversely relate to financial development in Africa. This counter-intuitive outcome could be due to Africa, age-long weak institutional capacities. Policy implications were discussed. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development; Geography; Institutions; Macroeconomic Policy; Africa |
| JEL: | D02 G20 P34 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/054&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Dosi; Luigi Marengo; Jacopo Staccioli; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | Are IPRs institutions meant to foster innovative activities or conversely to secure appropriation and profitability? Taking stock of a long-term empirical evidence on the pharmaceutical sector in the US, we can hardly support IPRs intended as an innovation rewarding institution. According to our analysis, pharma patents have constituted legal barriers to protect intellectual monopolies rather than an incentive and a reward to innovative efforts. Patenting strategies appear to be quite aggressive in extending knowledge borders and enlarging the space protected from the possibility of infringements. This is also witnessed by the fact that patent applications are very skewed in the covered trade names and patent thickness expands over time. Conversely, the number of patents protecting new drugs approved by the FDA which draw upon government-sponsored research - as such a mark for quality - falls. Firm-level analysis on profitability confirms strong correlation, restricted to listed pharmaceutical firms, between patent portfolio and profit margins. |
| Keywords: | Intellectual property rights; patents; pharmaceutical industry. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/26&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Babcock University, Nigeria); Olumuyiwa G. Yinusa (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria); Tolulope O. Williams (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Rahmon A. Folami (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | While it is clear that financial depth and economic diversity are prerequisites for the realisation of growth and development objectives, heterogeneous factors that determines financial development remains imperfectly understood. This ambiguity in the structural relations between varied causative factors is more pronounced in Africa where conditions for growth and development remains inadequately met. Underexplored aspects such as geographic, political, economic and macroeconomic policy determinant of financial development in Africa could have culminated into the misalignment of the continent financialisation strategies. This paper takes the lead, diverse and holistic approach to assign numerical weights to these unobserved factors to reach conclusions that can redefine policy and research on Africa's financialisation objectives. We compared result along with the mean group (MG), common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators but relied on the AMG results because of its high precision, relevance and superiority in addressing core issues of cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity of regressors.Based on the AMG results, we found geographic, economic and macroeconomic policy factors to lead to financial development in Africa. However, our political/institutional composite index inversely relate to financial development in Africa. This counter-intuitive outcome could be due to Africa, age-long weak institutional capacities. Policy implications were discussed. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development; Geography; Institutions; Macroeconomic Policy; Africa |
| JEL: | D02 G20 P34 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/054&r= |
| By: | Javidanrad, Farzad (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Over the last four decades, the term “financialisation” has entered economics terminologies to explain the development of capitalist economies in which: a) the rate of profit in the production sector is falling or narrowing relative to that in the financial sector b) profit seeking through financial speculation has grown rapidly among the household and the production sectors; c) public and private debt is rapidly accelerating and its ratio to GDP is increasing swiftly; d) there is an independent and accelerated growth of the financial sector compared to that of the real sector. This paper is a theoretical attempt to shed light on these features through the lens of the paradox of monetary profit and its manifestation in the capitalist economy, i.e. the shortage of money in circulation. The aim of this paper is to show how the paradox of monetary profit provides a theoretical framework to analyse the mechanism by which the capitalist economies move towards financialisation. This theoretical argument shows the connection between the shortage of money in circulation and financialisation. The core idea proposed in this paper is that financialisation is the direct result of the shortage of money in circulation, and that this shortage can be explained through the paradox of monetary profit. |
| Keywords: | Capitalism, Paradox of Monetary Profit, Financialisation, Monetary production Economy, Marx JEL Classification: B11 ; E11 ; P10 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1365&r= |
| By: | Kenneth Gillingham |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles are declining in cost so rapidly that they may claim a large share of the vehicle market by 2030. This paper examines a set of practical regulatory design considerations for fuel-economy standards or greenhouse gas standards in the context of highly uncertain electric vehicle costs in the next decade. The analysis takes a cost-effectiveness approach and uses analytical modeling and simulation to develop insight. I show that counting electric vehicles under a standard with a multiplier or assuming zero upstream emissions can reduce electric vehicle market share by weakening the standards. Further, there are tradeoffs from implementing a backstop conventional vehicle standard along with a second standard that also includes electric vehicles, but such a backstop offers the possibility of ensuring that low-cost conventional vehicle technologies are exploited. |
| JEL: | H23 Q48 Q53 Q54 Q58 R48 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29067&r= |
| By: | Pawel Polak (Stony Brook University); Urban Ulrych (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes a general relation between investor's ambiguity and non-Gaussianity of financial asset returns. Based on that relation and utilizing a flexible non-Gaussian returns model for the joint distribution of portfolio and currency returns, we develop an ambiguity-adjusted dynamic currency hedging strategy for international investors. We propose an extended filtered historical simulation that combines Monte Carlo simulation based on volatility clustering patterns with the semi-parametric non-normal return distribution from historical data. This simulation allows us to incorporate investor's ambiguity into the dynamic currency hedging strategy algorithm that can numerically optimize an arbitrary risk measure, such as volatility, value-at-risk, or expected shortfall. The out-of-sample back-test results show that, for globally diversified investors, the derived dynamic currency hedging strategy with ambiguity is stable, robust, and highly risk reductive. It outperforms the benchmarks of constant hedging as well as dynamic approaches without ambiguity in terms of lower maximum drawdown and higher Sharpe and Sortino ratios in gross terms and net of transaction costs. |
| Keywords: | Currency Hedging, Ambiguity, Filtered Historical Simulation, Expected Shortfall, Non- Gaussianity, International Asset Allocation, Currency Risk Management |
| JEL: | C53 C58 F31 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2160&r= |
| By: | Hara, Hiromi (Japan Women's University); Rodríguez-Planas, Núria (Queens College, CUNY) |
| Abstract: | We explore whether a 1990 Japanese educational reform that eliminated gender-segregated and gender-stereotyped industrial arts and home economics classes in junior high schools led to behavioral changes among these students some two decades later when they were married and in their early forties. Using a Regression Discontinuity (RD) design and Japanese time-use data from 2016, we find that the reform had a direct impact on Japanese women's attachment to the labor force, which seems to have changed the distribution of gender roles within the household, as we observe both a direct effect of the reform on women spending more time in traditionally male tasks during the weekend and an indirect effect on their husbands, who spend more time in traditionally female tasks. We present suggestive evidence that women's stronger attachment to the labor force may have been driven by changes in beliefs regarding men' and women's gender roles. As for men, the reform only had a direct impact on their weekend home production if they were younger than their wives and had small children. In such relationships, the reform also had the indirect effect of reducing their wives' time spent in weekend home production without increasing their labor-market attachment. Interestingly, the reform increased fertility only when it decreased wives' childcare. Otherwise, the reform delayed fertility. |
| Keywords: | junior high school, coeducation of industrial arts and home economics, gender gaps, time-use data, employment and labor income, and fertility |
| JEL: | J22 J24 I2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14611&r= |
| By: | Dominic Joseph |
| Abstract: | Banks and financial institutions all over the world manage portfolios containing tens of thousands of customers. Not all customers are high credit-worthy, and many possess varying degrees of risk to the Bank or financial institutions that lend money to these customers. Hence assessment of credit risk is paramount in the field of credit risk management. This paper discusses the use of Bayesian principles and simulation-techniques to estimate and calibrate the default probability of credit ratings. The methodology is a two-phase approach where, in the first phase, a posterior density of default rate parameter is estimated based the default history data. In the second phase of the approach, an estimate of true default rate parameter is obtained through simulations |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03389&r= |
| By: | Gumparthi, Srinivas; S., Pradeepa |
| Abstract: | This paper ‘Demonetization Impact on Liquidity of Large Corporates in India’ focuses on the changes in the Liquidity pattern of the companies’ in-order to cope up with the Business Risk that emerged due to the unforeseen Demonetization Policy of the Government of India. The study aimed at finding the performance of various sectors on liquidity parameters during pre and post demonetization period. The study covered the companies listed in NIFTY 50 over the period of 6 years from 2014-2019. The methodology used for analysis is the longitudinal study under descriptive analysis as it involves the repeated observations of the same variables over a period of time. As the paper focuses on the top companies listed, though companies faced the uncertainty during that particular period of demonetization, they bounced back at the earlier than the MSME companies. Some sectors like FMCG, Pharmaceutical were immune to demonetization as it has an inelastic demand in the market and demonetization created giant opportunities for the software sector as the country has been shifted towards digitalization. Found short-term implications for the cash-intensive sectors but in the long run it helps in the growth of the economy, which in turn will have a positive correlation with the growth of companies. |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:m5qvy&r= |
| By: | Jean-Jacques Rosé (ADERSE - Association pour le Développement de l'Enseignement et de la recherche sur la Responsabilité Sociale de l'Entreprise) |
| Abstract: | When social sciences meet management, they cannot avoid CSR, that necessary oxymoron (Rosé, 2015): an inescapable obstacle that justifies the timeliness of specific work devoted to the pedagogy of a CSR that is not Windows dressing. Such are the onstraints of the question asked, the offspring of a long line of conceptual battles that punctuate the history of a secular education under permanent tension. The result is the need to base all research and teaching of CSR on the solid foundation of an understanding of responsibility in a brief evocation of its multidisciplinary approaches, whose deep roots are inevitably sociological and philosophical. |
| Abstract: | Quand les sciences sociales rencontrent le management, elles ne peuvent éviter la RSE, cet oxymore nécessaire (Rosé, 2015): obstacle incontournable qui justifie l'opportunité des travaux spécifiques consacrés à la pédagogie d'une RSE qui ne soit pas du Windows dressing. Telles sont les contraintes de la question posée, rejeton d'une longue lignée de batailles conceptuelles qui jalonnent l'histoire d'un enseignement séculaire sous tension permanente. La résultante est la nécessité de fonder toute recherche et tout enseignement de la RSE sur le socle solide d'une compréhension de la responsabilité en une brève évocation de ses approches pluridisciplinaires, dont les racines profondes sont inéluctablement sociologiques et philosophiques. |
| Keywords: | CSR,Pedagogy,Contradiction,Dialectic,RSE,Pédagogie,Dialectique |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277474&r= |
| By: | Chaudhuri, K; Howley, P. |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of vaccination against Covid-19 for mental health. Our estimates suggest that vaccination leads to a significant and substantive improvement in the mental health of those most at risk of hospitalisation and death from Covid-19. Our proposed explanation is that in the absence of vaccination, anxiety about contracting COVID-19 has a deleterious impact on the mental health of this cohort. On the other hand, our findings suggest that vaccination does not materially impact the mental health of those least at risk from Covid-19, namely younger cohorts. The lack of any significant impact for this cohort may explain vaccine hesitancy amongst young people. For this group, a lack of uptake may be principally due to a lack of perceived benefits for their own wellbeing as opposed to vaccine hesitancy. |
| Keywords: | covid-19; mental well-being; vaccination; propensity score matching; |
| JEL: | I12 I31 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:21/14&r= |
| By: | William Chen (Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Gregory Phelan (Department of Economics, Williams College) |
| Abstract: | When financial intermediaries’ key characteristic is provision of liquidity through their liabilities, with financial frictions the financial sector in the aggregate is likely to over-accumulate equity, thus decreasing liquidity provision and household welfare. Aggregate household welfare is therefore decreasing in the level of aggregate intermediary equity even though the individual value of intermediaries is increasing in equity, which is why intermediaries over-accumulate equity. Subsidizing intermediary dividends can improve welfare by encouraging earlier payout and decreasing aggregate equity in the financial sector. This policy increases the likelihood that intermediaries provide more liquidity and improves the stability of the economy, even though asset prices fall. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, Macroeconomic instability Macroprudential policy, Banks |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G01 G12 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2021-11&r= |
| By: | Misuraca, Francesco |
| Abstract: | The theme of this article is epistemological: Defining the logical and epistemological statute of Dissent as a sociological act of innovation and change in international law by social groups in opposition to the establishment, sovereign states and their geopolitical alliances. The sociological theory of the loop as an object of study and ontological unity is, therefore, applied to the case of Dissent, to try to explain the paradox of this social function that makes its way, every day, in a world originally dominated by the Force (of military, police, hooliganism, terrorist, antisocial nature, etc.). We try to answer the problem of how Dissent (political-democratic, human rights, civil disobedience, etc.) can be a practice of peaceful contrast to violence and the Force, which can even create such beautiful and fragile buildings as state law, international law, human rights and peace itself. In doing so, it is assumed that international human rights regimes cooperate with Dissent (operating within them, and viceversa) to impose international legal obligations, in the field of human rights, which are fully effective and sanctioned, even in the absence of a police and/or centralized jurisdiction and/or a deterrent system of military sanctions. This concurrent, complementary and quasi-collaborative activity with the States, on the one hand, challenges the "local and nationalized" Force, on the other, "to some extent", follows a "loop" logic making use of them. The conjecture formulated by this article is that the sociological theory of the loop, applied to the case of dissent, can explain the paradox of dissent (political-democratic, in human rights, in civil disobedience, etc.). Indeed, it is aporetic how peaceful practice can contribute to establishing international law, human rights and peace itself without being Force and violence itself. The aporia would be resolved, by conjecture, by arguing that Dissent "is" Strength to a certain extent, that is, that it is logically and ontologically "vague" related to the practice of States and by asserting that the International Regimes of Human Rights are sketches of the future international law (or the future legal systems of the Sovereign States or their, for now, unknown successor). Such an outcome, however, requires a reformulation of the implicit presuppositions of the sociology of Dissent, affecting its logical and ontological foundations, with a new thesis of deontic logic, which resorts to an attenuation of the principle of non contradiction, in the particular field of praxis of Dissent. This allows us to conceptualize the ontological and logical theory that Dissent would be "almost" an act of Force. |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:b7ydw&r= |
| By: | Christina E. Hoicka (University of Victoria, Canada); Jessica Conroy (York University, Canada); Anna Berka (Massey University, New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | Cities as large centres of energy demand and population are important spatially and materially in a renewable energy transition. This study draws on available literature on material dimensions, energy decentralization, and regional approaches to provide a conceptual framework to analyse emerging city renewable energy transition plans for their material- and place-based actor scalar strategies. This framework outlines how the increase in renewable energy provided to cities results in new locations of productivity, interscalar relationships between new and centralized actors, and socio-economic outcomes. We use this to analyse 47 ambitious renewable energy transition plans in densely populated cities. Empirically, this study confirms that, for the most part, regions are important emerging actors in the decentralization of energy systems in a renewable energy transition; that city renewable energy transitions involve the forging of new economic relationships between cities and neighbouring communities and regions, and, as the community energy literature emphasises, that the involvement of a wide range of civic and local actors is important in shaping renewable energy transitions for cities. Further research can investigate how the institutional context is shaping these distinct actor material strategies and emerging interscalar relationships across regions. The socio-economic outcomes, particularly as they relate to new economic relationships between cities and the surrounding region and the re-spatialization of productivity and benefits, should also be examined. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy transition, cities, decentralization, regional approaches, carbon neutral |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoe:wpaper:2106&r= |
| By: | Dante Amengual (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Gabriele Fiorentini (Università di Firenze and RCEA); Enrique Sentana (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | We show that the information matrix test for a multivariate normal random vector coincides with the sum of the two moment tests that look at the means of all the different third- and fourth-order multivariate Hermite polynomials, respectively. We also explain how to simulate its exact, parameter-free, finite sample distribution to any desired degree of accuracy for any dimension of the random vector and sample size. Specifically, we exploit the numerical invariance of the test statistic to affine transformations of the observed variables to simulate draws extremely quickly. |
| Keywords: | Exact test, Hessian matrix, multivariate normality, outer product of the score. |
| JEL: | C30 C46 C52 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2021_2103&r= |
| By: | Drinkwater, Stephen (University of Roehampton); Jennings, Colin (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine three forms of regret in relation to the UK’s hugely significant referendum on EU membership that was held in June 2016. These are, (i) whether leave voters at the referendum subsequently regretted their choice (in the light of the result), (ii) whether non-voters regretted their decisions not to vote (remain) and (iii) whether individuals were more likely to indicate that it is everyone’s duty to vote following the referendum. We find evidence in favour of all three types of regret. In particular, leave voters and non-voters were significantly more likely to indicate that they would vote remain given their chance to do so again and there was a significant increase in the probability of an individual stating that it was everyone’s duty to vote in a general election in 2017 compared to 2015. |
| Keywords: | EU referendum, Brexit, voting, regret, non-voters |
| JEL: | D70 D72 F60 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14589&r= |
| By: | Zhao, Jing; Cochrane, Mark; Lee, Janice; Elmore, Andrew; Numata, Izaya; Zhang, Xin |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312773&r= |
| By: | Shu, Yiheng; Chang, Qing; Hu, Wuyang; Li, Jian; Qing, Ping; Chen, Xuan |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312757&r= |
| By: | Belitski, Maksim (University of Reading); Guenther, Christina (WHU Vallendar); Kritikos, Alexander S. (DIW Berlin); Thurik, Roy (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | The existential threat to small businesses, based on their crucial role in the economy, is behind the plethora of scholarly studies in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining the 14 contributions of the special issue on the "Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses," the paper comprises four parts: a systematic review of the literature on the effect on entrepreneurship and small businesses; a discussion of four literature strands based on this review; an overview of the contributions in this special issue; and some ideas for post-pandemic economic research. |
| Keywords: | small businesses, entrepreneurs, COVID-19, economic effects |
| JEL: | L26 J38 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14630&r= |
| By: | Costoya, Victoria; Echeverría, Lucía; Edo, María; Rocha, Ana; Thailinger, Agustina |
| Abstract: | Based on a novel survey for Argentina, this paper provides evidence of the changes in time allocation within couples during the COVID-19 emergency. The survey was conducted online during the period of national lockdown in 2020 and collected information on hours allocated to paid work, housework, child care, educational childcare and leisure by both members of the couple before and during the lockdown, as well as socio-demographic characteristics. Our sample consists of 961 couples of which 785 have children. Our results indicate that during the lockdown, despite a reduction in time assigned to paid work and an increase in time spent in unpaid activities for both members of the couple, gender gaps regarding the latter increased. Specifically, while the load of men and women's work for pay became more equitable, women took up a larger proportion of the additional housework and childcare. We found that some factors mitigated (whether the man reduced his hours of work or whether both partners kept on doing so) while others potentiated (whether the woman reduced her hours of work, whether she continued working from home, or whether the couple outsourced housework before lockdown) the changes in the within-couple gender gaps in unpaid activities. |
| Keywords: | Distribución del Tiempo; Brecha de Género; Aislamiento Social; COVID-19; |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3506&r= |
| By: | Ian Ball (Department of Economics, MIT); Jose-Antonio Espin-Sanchez (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We introduce experimental persuasion between Sender and Receiver. Sender chooses an experiment to perform from a feasible set of experiments. Receiver observes the realization of this experiment and chooses an action. We characterize optimal persuasion in this baseline regime and in an alternative regime in which Sender can commit to garble the outcome of the experiment. Our model includes Bayesian persuasion as the special case in which every experiment is feasible; however, our analysis does not require concaviï¬ cation. Since we focus on experiments rather than beliefs, we can accommodate general preferences including costly experiments and non-Bayesian inference. |
| Keywords: | Experiments, Beliefs, Decision Making, Information, Bayesian |
| JEL: | D81 D82 D83 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2298&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | While the non-mining sector was severely impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, overall growth in Guinea remains strong, reaching 7 percent in 2020, driven by booming mining production. Inflation exceeded 12 percent as a result of COVID-related supply disruptions and the ongoing monetary and fiscal response. The already weak social indicators have deteriorated further. |
| Keywords: | authorities' intention; accommodative fiscal policy; Guinean authorities; near-term priority; value chain; money market rate; Mining sector; COVID-19; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Africa; West Africa |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/146&r= |
| By: | Laschever, Ron A. (Compass Lexecon); Weinstein, Russell (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) |
| Abstract: | We study whether there are improvements in worker-firm matching when employers and applicants can credibly signal their interest in a match. Using a detailed résumé dataset of more than 400 applicants from one university over five years, we analyze a matching process in which firms fill some of their inter- view slots by invitation and the remainder are filled by an auction. Consistent with the predictions of a signaling model, we find the auction is valuable for less desirable firms trying to hire high desirability applicants. Second, we find evidence that is consistent with the auction benefiting overlooked applicants. Candidates who are less likely to be invited for an interview (e.g., non-U.S. citizens) are hired after having the opportunity to interview through the auction. Among hires, these candidates are more represented among auction winners than invited interviewees, and this difference is more pronounced at more desirable firms. Finally, counterfactual analysis shows the auction increases the number and quality of hires for less desirable firms, and total hires in the market. |
| Keywords: | labor markets, signaling, hiring, interview, matching |
| JEL: | J20 M51 D83 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14622&r= |
| By: | Tadao Hoshino; Takahide Yanagi |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate a treatment effect model in which individuals interact in a social network and they may not comply with the assigned treatments. We introduce a new concept of exposure mapping, which summarizes spillover effects into a fixed dimensional statistic of instrumental variables, and we call this mapping the instrumental exposure mapping (IEM). We investigate identification conditions for the intention-to-treat effect and the average causal effect for compliers, while explicitly considering the possibility of misspecification of IEM. Based on our identification results, we develop nonparametric estimation procedures for the treatment parameters. Their asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality, are investigated using an approximate neighborhood interference framework by Leung (2021). For an empirical illustration of our proposed method, we revisit Paluck et al.'s (2016) experimental data on the anti-conflict intervention school program. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07455&r= |
| By: | Rym Ibrahim (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PsyCLÉ - Centre de Recherche en Psychologie de la Connaissance, du Langage et de l'Émotion - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03260849&r= |
| By: | Itakura, Ken; Lee, Hiro |
| Abstract: | Before the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) entered into force, the United States withdrew from the trade accord. Eleven other TPP signatories decided to revive the agreement, which led to the implementation of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TPP (CPTPP). The objectives of this paper are to estimate economic welfare effects under alternative scenarios of TPP/CPTPP, to evaluate the extent of losses to the US from its withdrawal from TPP and expected gains from rejoining the Trans-Pacific trade accord, and to examine whether the US economy would have to undergo extensive sectoral adjustments from its participation. We employ a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine these issues. The results suggest that the US loses an opportunity to gain 0.4 percent in its economic welfare by withdrawing from TPP, but it would be able to recover most of its projected welfare gains by reengaging with CPTPP. Since sectoral output adjustments in the US are small, its adjustment costs from participation in CPTPP would be limited. In addition, there exist political incentives for the US to become a member of this trade accord. |
| Keywords: | TPP, CPTPP, US, GTAP, CGE model |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F17 |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109133&r= |
| By: | Frédéric Marty |
| Abstract: | The policy initiatives announced on both sides of the Atlantic to complement competition rules focus on two key dimensions: the contestability of markets on the one hand and fairness in their functioning on the other. The underlying idea is that the market positions of Big Tech would be inexpugnable - insofar as high barriers to entry protect them from self-regulating competition and insofar as they would have regulatory power over their respective ecosystems. Competition for the market would no longer be free, and competition in the market would be distorted. Our purpose in this working paper is to discuss these two dimensions. Are digital markets still contestable, and is the competition in them still competition on the merits? Finally, we discuss the remedies proposed to address these two alleged phenomena. La concentration des marchés numériques : Comment préserver les conditions d'une concurrence effective pour le marché et d'une concurrence non faussée dans le marché ? Les initiatives politiques annoncées de part et d’autre de l’Atlantique pour compléter les règles de concurrence mettent l’accent sur deux dimensions essentielles : la contestabilité des marchés d’une part et la loyauté dans le fonctionnement dans leur fonctionnement d’autre part. L’idée sous-jacente est la suivante : les positions de marché des grandes entreprises du numérique seraient inexpugnables – dans la mesure où de fortes barrières à l’entrée les protègent d’un caractère auto-régulateur de la concurrence et dans la mesure où elles jouiraient d’un pouvoir de régulation sur leurs écosystèmes respectifs. La concurrence pour le marché ne serait plus libre et la concurrence dans le marché serait faussée. Notre propos dans ce document de travail est de discuter ces deux dimensions. Les marchés numériques sont-ils toujours contestables et la concurrence qui s’y exerce est-elle encore une concurrence par les mérites ? Nous discutons enfin les remèdes proposés pour répondre à ces deux phénomènes allégués. |
| Keywords: | contestability,fairness,loyalty,Big Tech,concentration,exclusionary abuses, contestabilité,loyauté de la concurrence,équité,Big Tech,concentration,abus d’éviction |
| JEL: | K21 L41 |
| Date: | 2021–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2021s-27&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2021–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/159&r= |
| By: | A. K. M. Amanat Ullah; Fahim Imtiaz; Miftah Uddin Md Ihsan; Md. Golam Rabiul Alam; Mahbub Majumdar |
| Abstract: | The unpredictability and volatility of the stock market render it challenging to make a substantial profit using any generalized scheme. This paper intends to discuss our machine learning model, which can make a significant amount of profit in the US stock market by performing live trading in the Quantopian platform while using resources free of cost. Our top approach was to use ensemble learning with four classifiers: Gaussian Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression with L1 regularization and Stochastic Gradient Descent, to decide whether to go long or short on a particular stock. Our best model performed daily trade between July 2011 and January 2019, generating 54.35% profit. Finally, our work showcased that mixtures of weighted classifiers perform better than any individual predictor about making trading decisions in the stock market. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13148&r= |
| By: | Krista Finstad-Milion (ICN Business School); Kim Ceulemans (TBS - Toulouse Business School); Emma Avetisyan (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | Over the last twenty-five years, the concept of Engaged Scholarship has gained momentum in the academic world striving to value knowledge developed through academia while actively engaging and dialoguing with society. Yet, how business schools and faculties, and universities at large, can move beyond institutional boundaries to engage deeply with society on complex urgent problems, such as sustainability, remains less explored. To address this issue this study focuses on the role of boundary-spanning intermediary organizations for responsible education, namely the PRME France-Benelux Chapter. Relying on evidence from multiple internal Chapter documents and PRME global sources of information and exemplifying the three levels of engaged scholarship drawing on concrete engaged educational, research and service actions of the PRME France-Benelux Chapter, our research shows evidence of how the Chapter convenes and facilitates collaboration for sustainability at a regional level. We conclude that PRME Chapters, as well as other regional and national networks, have the potential to further foster substantial responsible management education among their signatory schools through creating space for conversations, knowledge and practice sharing, and capacity building on the urgent topic of sustainability and CSR. |
| Abstract: | Au cours des vingt-cinq dernières années, le concept « engaged scholarship » a pris de l'ampleur dans le monde universitaire, s'efforçant de valoriser les connaissances développées par le milieu universitaire tout en s'engageant activement et en dialoguant avec la société. Pourtant, la manière dont les écoles et facultés de management, et les universités en général, peuvent dépasser les frontières institutionnelles pour s'engager profondément avec la société sur des problèmes complexes et urgents, tels que la durabilité, reste moins explorée. Pour répondre à cette problématique, cette étude s'intéresse au rôle des organisations régionales transfrontalières qui sont vecteurs d'une éducation responsable en management, et plus précisément le chapitre PRME France-Benelux. S'appuyant sur des exemples tirés de multiples documents internes du chapitre et des sources d'informations de PRME Global, et illustrant les trois niveaux de « engaged scholarship » en s'appuyant sur des actions concrètes d'éducation, de recherche et de services engagées par le chapitre PRME France-Benelux, notre travail de recherche montre comment le chapitre se réunit et facilite la collaboration pour contribuer aux efforts de développement durable au niveau régional. Nous concluons que les chapitres PRME, ainsi que d'autres réseaux universitaires régionaux et nationaux, ont le potentiel de favoriser un enseignement substantiel du management responsable dans leurs écoles signataires en créant un espace pour des échanges, le partage des connaissances et pratiques et le renforcement des capacités sur le sujet urgent de la durabilité et de la RSE. |
| Keywords: | PRME,Sustainability,Higher Education,RSE,Enseignement supérieur -- Europe |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277483&r= |
| By: | Orlovic, Martina; Warraich, Haider; Wolf, Douglas; Mossialos, Elias |
| Abstract: | Context: Americans express a strong preference for participating in decisions regarding their medical care, yet they are often unable to participate in decision-making regarding their end-of-life care. Objective: To examine determinants of end-of-life planning; including, the effect of an individual's ageing and dying process, health status and socio-economic and racial/ethnic background. Methods: US observational cohort study, using data from the Health and Retirement Study (1992 – 2014) including 37,494 individuals. Random-effects logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between the presence of a living will and a range of individual time-varying characteristics, including time to death, and several time-invariant characteristics. Results: End-of-life planning depends on several patient characteristics and circumstances, with socio-economic and racial/ethnic background having the largest effects. The probability of having a living will rises sharply late in life, as we would expect, and is further modified by the patient's proximity to death. The dying process, exerts a stronger influence on end-of-life planning than does the aging. Conclusions: Understanding differences that increase end-of-life planning is important to incentivize patients’ participation. Advance planning should be encouraged and accessible to people of all ages as it is inevitable for the provision of patient-centered and cost-effective care. |
| Keywords: | advance care planning; end-of-life; end-of-life planning; living will |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111538&r= |
| By: | Roman V. Kirin |
| Abstract: | This study aims to show the fundamental difference between logistic regression and Bayesian classifiers in the case of exponential and unexponential families of distributions, yielding the following findings. First, the logistic regression is a less general representation of a Bayesian classifier. Second, one should suppose distributions of classes for the correct specification of logistic regression equations. Third, in specific cases, there is no difference between predicted probabilities from correctly specified generative Bayesian classifier and discriminative logistic regression. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03715&r= |
| By: | Kumar Sur, Pramod |
| Abstract: | Why does the vaccination rate remain low, even in countries where long-established immunization programs exist, and vaccines are provided for free? We study this lower vaccination paradox in the context of India—which contributes to the largest pool of under-vaccinated children in the world and about one-third of all vaccine-preventable deaths globally. We explore the importance of historical events shaping current vaccination practices. Combining historical records with survey datasets, we examine the Indian government’s forced sterilization policy implemented in 1976-77 and find that greater exposure to forced sterilization has had a large negative effect on the current vaccination completion rate. We explore the mechanism for this practice and find that institutional delivery and antenatal care are low in states where policy exposure was high. Finally, we examine the consequence of lower vaccination, suggesting that child mortality is currently high in states with greater sterilization exposure. Together, the evidence suggests that government policies implemented in the past could have persistent impacts on adverse demand for healthseeking behavior, even if the burden is exceedingly high. |
| Keywords: | Vaccination, immunization, family planning, forced sterilization, institutional delivery, antenatal care, child mortality, persistence, N01, I12, I18, O53, J13, Z1 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000185&r= |
| By: | Maksim Belitski; Christina Guenther; Alexander S. Kritikos; Roy Thurik |
| Abstract: | The existential threat to small businesses, based on their crucial role in the economy, is behind the plethora of scholarly studies in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining the 14 contributions of the special issue on the “Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses,” the paper comprises four parts: a systematic review of the literature on the effect on entrepreneurship and small businesses; a discussion of four literature strands based on this review; an overview of the contributions in this special issue; and some ideas for post-pandemic economic research. |
| Keywords: | Small businesses, entrepreneurs, COVID-19 pandemic, economic effects |
| JEL: | L26 J38 I18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1961&r= |
| By: | Don Fullerton; Shan He |
| Abstract: | Circular Economy literature recommends longer lasting products, in order to reduce pollution from extraction, production, and disposal. Our economic analysis finds conditions where consumers choose lives that are too short – a “durability gap”. Then policies targeting durability raise welfare. While externalities are corrected by Pigovian taxes that ignore durability, raising the output tax nonetheless induces consumers to pay more for goods that last longer. Second, if the tax is suboptimal, a durability mandate raises welfare. Third, internalities have ambiguous effects. Fourth, a social discount rate less than private discount rate is the strongest case for policy to favor durability. |
| JEL: | H21 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29073&r= |
| By: | Lars Osberg (Department of Economics, Dalhousie University) |
| Date: | 2021–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dal:wpaper:daleconwp2021-01&r= |
| By: | Sang Truong; Humberto Barreto |
| Abstract: | The distribution of household income is a central concern of modern economic policy due to its strong influence on life quality. Yet, non-expert audiences are unaware of the relationship between these two factors. To effectively communicate the effect of income inequality on the quality of life and among the strata, we have designed a novel technique for visualizing income distribution and inequality over time by using the U.S. household income microdata from the Current Population Survey. The result is a striking dynamic animation of income distribution over time, drawing public attention and further investigating economic inequality. Detailed implementation of this project is available at https://github.com/sangttruong/incomevis . |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03733&r= |
| By: | Meglioli, Francesco; Gauci, Stephanie |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present a new approach to analyse the interconnectedness between a macro-level network and a local-level network. Our methodology is developed on the Diebold and Yilmaz connectedness measure and it considers the presence of entities within a global network which can influence other entities within their own local network but are not relevant enough to influence the entities which do not belong to the same local network. This methodology is then applied to the Maltese domestic investment funds sector and we find that a high-level correlation between the domestic funds can transmit higher spillovers to the local stock exchange index and to the government bond secondary market prices. Moreover, a high correlation among the Maltese domestic investment funds can increase their vulnerability to shocks stemming from financial indices, and therefore, investment funds may potentially become a shock transmission channel. JEL Classification: C32, C58, G10, G23 |
| Keywords: | contagion, herding behaviour, interconnectedness, investment funds, Network model, systemic risk |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:2021124&r= |
| By: | Gyetvai, Attila (Banco de Portugal); Zhu, Maria (Syracuse University) |
| Abstract: | Which former coworkers help displaced workers find jobs? We answer this question by studying occupational similarity in job finding networks. Using matched employer-employee data from Hungary, this paper relates the unemployment duration of displaced workers to the employment rate of their former coworker networks. We find that while coworkers from all occupations are helpful in job finding, there is significant heterogeneity in effects by occupation skill-level. For workers in low-skill jobs, coworkers who worked in the same narrow occupation as the displaced worker are the most useful network contacts. For workers in high-skill jobs, coworkers from different occupations are the most useful network contacts. |
| Keywords: | networks, job search, former coworkers, unemployment duration, skill heterogeneity |
| JEL: | J64 D85 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14615&r= |
| By: | Khavul, Susanna; Estrin, Saul; Wright, Mike |
| Abstract: | As a digital financial innovation, equity crowdfunding (ECF) allows investors to exploit the complementarity of information provision and network effects in a reduced transaction cost environment. We build on the underlying distinction between soft and hard information and show that ECF platforms create an environment of greater information pooling that benefits from network externalities. We test our hypotheses using a unique proprietary dataset and find that soft information has a greater impact than hard on the likelihood that a financing pitch will be successful. Moreover, the effects of soft information are amplified by the size of the investor network on the platform and network size also positively moderates the effect of information on the amount invested during each pitch. We conclude that ECF platforms can successfully exploit low transaction costs of the digital environment and bring network externalities to bear on investor decisions. Taken together that these increase the supply of funds to entrepreneurs. |
| Keywords: | equity crowdfunding; entrepreneurial finance; soft information; network externalities; platforms; e Research Infrastructure and Investment Fund; Centre for Economic Performance; Springer deal |
| JEL: | G23 J26 M13 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109808&r= |
| By: | Cigno, Alessandro (University of Florence) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature concerning the evolution of cultural traits in general and preferences in particular, and the emergence and persistence of rules or norms, from a family perspective. In models where every new person is effectively the clone of an existing one (either a parent or anyone else), there may be evolution only in the demographic sense that the share of the population who hold a certain trait increases or decreases. Evolution in the strict sense of new traits making their appearance occurs in models where the trait characterizing any given member of any given generation is a combination of traits drawn at random from those represented in the previous generation. Preferences may be altruistic or non-altruistic, but individuals may behave as if they were altruistic even if they are not, because a rule or norm may make it in their interest to do so. Evolutionary stability and renegotiation proofness play analogous roles, the former by selecting altruistic preferences, and the latter by selecting cooperation-inducing rules. The existence of population groups recognizable by outward characteristics like ethnicity or religious practice may convey useful information regarding imperfectly observable traits, such as preferences, of direct interest to individuals, but it may also lead individuals to judge others by their group membership rather than by their unobservable individual qualities, and thus to see them as possible foes. |
| Keywords: | evolution, preferences, rules, socialization, matching, hold-up problem |
| JEL: | Z1 C78 D01 D02 D13 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14621&r= |
| By: | Ault, Toby; Carrillo, Carlos; Chambers, Robert G.; He, Yurou; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel; Sheng, Yu |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Productivity Analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312864&r= |
| By: | Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul |
| Abstract: | This article provides an interim assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. Estimates suggest a median output loss of about 8 percent in 2020, a gap that is expected to narrow to around 4 percent of the pre-pandemic trend by the end of 2021. There is however a high dispersion of economic losses across economies, reflecting varying exposures to the pandemic and societies' responses. High-frequency indicators and epidemiological models provide some insights into the interactions between the pandemic evolution and societies' strategies of combating it, including the role of vaccination. The article draws lessons from experiences thus far and discusses challenges ahead. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 pandemic, health-economic tradeoffs |
| JEL: | E00 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:959&r= |
| By: | Hidalgo-Oñate, Diego |
| Abstract: | The capitalist economic model is unsustainable because far from producing an increase in the well-being of the population, it has intensified environmental and social problems. The 2008 Constitution of Ecuador includes some approaches when claiming the "sumak kawsay" or "good living", which grants rights to nature and considers a form of social and solidarity economy. Some of the approaches of groups that demand social change are accepted, which would improve government management in the design, implementation, and evaluation stages of public policies. Regarding the implementation stage, the scope is to analyze and present a proposal for public environmental, health, and education policies, which would allow us to overcome the crisis. Finally, it seeks to contribute to the discussion around post-development, that is, the viability of sustainable communities that allow supporting the theory of local development and specifically the “sumak kawsay” or “good living” adopted by Ecuador. |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hq5sr&r= |
| By: | Daiji Kawaguchi; Sagiri Kitao; Manabu Nose |
| Abstract: | Drawing on the original survey of Japanese firms during the COVID-19 pandemic, we estimate the impact of the crisis on firms’ sales, employment and hours worked per employee and roles of Work-from-Home (WfH) arrangements in mitigating negative effects. We find that the lowered mobility, induced by the state of emergency declared by the government and fear of infection, significantly contracted firms’ activities. On average, a 10% reduction in mobility reduced sales by 2.8% and hours worked by 2.1%, but did not affect employment. This muted employment response is consistent with limited changes in aggregate employment at the extensive margin during COVID-19 in Japan. We find that the adoption of WfH before COVID-19 mitigated the negative impact by 55% in terms of sales and by 35% in terms of hours worked. Adapting to the crisis environment by increasing the number of employees working from home is also found to moderately reduce the negative impact on sales and work hours. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Work-from-Home (WfH), Remote work, Firm sales, Employment, Hours worked, Japanese economy |
| JEL: | J5 J6 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-71&r= |
| By: | Gemici, Evrim; Gemici, Zafer |
| Abstract: | Science and technology (S&T) indicators are important in evaluating how successful countries are in factors described by endogenous growth models. Accordingly, the aim of this paper is to investigate S&T indicators of Turkey in a comparative and more hitherto comprehensive study and to present a guiding reference for researchers and decision makers working on innovation and technology policies. This study was carried out using online databases such as those of the OECD, World Bank, Eurostat, and TÜİK considering the criteria used in the literature to measure countries’ R&D and innovation performances, and Turkey’s innovative performance is presented in comparison with the world’s by summarizations within the scope of the study. The results demonstrate that Turkey has made significant progress in the last 20 years in terms of R&D and innovation, but it is still far from reaching the indicators of developed countries. In particular, the increase in R&D and innovation performance has decreased due to the economic difficulties experienced in the world and in Turkey after 2012 and 2013. Based on the indicators evaluated in this study, some suggestions are given and prioritized to increase Turkey’s innovation performance. |
| Date: | 2021–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:csyud&r= |
| By: | Xiaotie Deng; Yotam Gafni; Ron Lavi; Tao Lin; Hongyi Ling |
| Abstract: | We study competition among contests in a general model that allows for an arbitrary and heterogeneous space of contest design, where the goal of the contest designers is to maximize the contestants' sum of efforts. Our main result shows that optimal contests in the monopolistic setting (i.e., those that maximize the sum of efforts in a model with a single contest) form an equilibrium in the model with competition among contests. Under a very natural assumption these contests are in fact dominant, and the equilibria that they form are unique. Moreover, equilibria with the optimal contests are Pareto-optimal even in cases where other equilibria emerge. In many natural cases, they also maximize the social welfare. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13363&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | At the request of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and in consultation with the Africa Department (AFR) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a remote Government Finance Statistics (GFS) mission from the Statistics Department (STA) took place in Madagascar from October 26 to November 13, 2020. The objective of this mission was to continue supporting the authorities in their project to adopt international GFS standards based on the methodology of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) and the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide (PSDSG) and to improve GFS in general. |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Debt statistic; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; C. mission work; report constitute; GFS questionnaire; Government finance statistics; Financial statements; Data processing; Stocks; Africa |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/151&r= |
| By: | PURBA, PRIA MITRA |
| Abstract: | Di era zaman globalisasi ini kemajuan Teknologi Informasi sangatlah pesat, informasi dapat kita ketahui dengan mudah seiring perkembangan zaman. Dalam perkembangan teknologi saat ini memulai bisnis tidak semudah apa yang anda bayangkan. Kita lihat saja banyak saat ini pengusaha pengusaha yang kesuksesannya sangat luar biasa sehingga dapat meningkatkan perekonomian dunia. Kita tahu bahwa persaingan dalam memulai bisnis di era saat ini sangat banyak. Banyak perusahaan perusahaan yang mecari beragam cara dan ide untuk memajukan usahanya. Saat ini berdagang atau memulai bisnis dengan aplikasi start up semakin berkembang pesat, bahkan yang kita saksikan saat ini banyak perusahaan yang sudah sukses dalam mengembangkan bisnis ini. Salah satu perusahaan start up yang sudah sukses saat ini contoh nya: Shopee,Lazada,Gojek,Grab dan lain sebagai. Aplikasi tidak hanya dapat digunakan oleh perusahaan atau lembaga besar saja melainkan semua kalangan, terutama kalangan kecil da menengah dapat menggunakan aplikasi sebagai media promosi yang hemat sekaligus menampilkan profesionalitas aplikasi menjadi salah satu media yang dapat diandalkan. |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:6f8uq&r= |
| By: | Erick Rangel González; Luis Fernando López Ornelas |
| Abstract: | Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is often identified as a driver of economic growth, although there is no consensus on this topic in the international empirical evidence regarding its effect on labor productivity. This document analyzes the effects of Foreign Direct Investment on labor productivity in the manufacturing sector in Mexico during the 2007-2015 period by using panel data and federative entities as unit of analysis. The estimates are calculated by the generalized method of moments, which allows to consider for possible endogeneity problems. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant effect of FDI as a proportion of manufacturing GDP on the growth rate of labor productivity when the latter is estimated with the Manufacturing Labor Productivity Index published by INEGI. Similar results are found if growth in labor productivity is estimated by using manufacturing GDP per worker, although the latter have less statistical power in some specifications. |
| JEL: | J01 J24 Q29 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Niembro, Andrés; Calá, Carla Daniela; Belmartino, Andrea |
| Abstract: | El estudio de la especialización productiva regional es clave para diseñar políticas de desarrollo territorial. Sin embargo, las medidas usualmente utilizadas no tienen en cuenta la interdependencia entre actividades y presentan otros problemas relacionados con el nivel de desagregación sectorial empleado. Para superar estas limitaciones, proponemos una nueva forma de definir la especialización regional a partir de técnicas de análisis multivariado, que son aplicadas a datos del total de empleo asalariado registrado en el sector privado de Argentina. Primero, conformamos un conjunto de perfiles sectoriales de coaglomeración territorial y, a partir de ellos, definimos una tipología empírica de Áreas Económicas Locales en función de sus patrones productivos. Los resultados muestran que la metodología propuesta ayuda a capturar interdependencias entre actividades, distinguir dentro de una categoría especializaciones cualitativamente diferentes y dar cuenta tanto del tipo de especialización como del grado de diversidad productiva regional. |
| Keywords: | Especialización de la Producción; Diversificación de la Producción; Economías de Aglomeración; Análisis Multivariado; |
| Date: | 2021–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3483&r= |
| By: | Frank A. Wolak |
| Abstract: | Growing amounts of intermittent renewable generation capacity substantially increases the complexity of determining whether sufficient energy will be available to meet hourly demands throughout the year. As the events of August 2020 in California and February 2021 in Texas demonstrate, supply shortfalls can have large economic and public health consequences. An empirical analysis of these two events demonstrates that similar supply shortfalls are likely to occur in the future without a paradigm shift in how long-term resource adequacy is determined for an electricity supply industry with significant intermittent renewables. An alternative approach to determining long-term resource adequacy that explicitly recognizes the characteristics of different generation technologies is outlined and its properties explored relative to current approaches. |
| JEL: | L22 L23 Q2 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29033&r= |
| By: | Raúl Delgado (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo); Huáscar Eguino (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo); Aloisio Lopes (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo) |
| Abstract: | Esta publicación presenta un conjunto de experiencias recientes de ministerios de finanzas de la región de América Latina y el Caribe en tres áreas de intervención donde convergen los temas de cambio climático y las responsabilidades de estos ministerios. Así mismo, la publicación aporta elementos para que el diseño de las políticas fiscales coadyuve a un crecimiento sostenible. Las tres áreas donde las intervenciones de los ministerios de finanzas resultan cruciales son: 1) la gestión de los riesgos económicos, fiscales y financieros asociados a los eventos climáticos extremos y al cambio climático; 2) los desafíos de la transición hacia economías bajas en emisiones de carbono, y 3) la reorientación de las finanzas públicas para que contribuyan a los objetivos nacionales de resiliencia y descarbonización. La publicación también muestra que, aunque los riesgos y desafíos de la transición hacia economías verdes son reales, existe gran cantidad de evidencia que indica que, si dicha transición se planifica e implementa adecuadamente, es posible generar nuevas oportunidades económicas a la vez que se crean más y mejores empleos. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03319410&r= |
| By: | Jin Yeub Kim (Yonsei Univ) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers social contracts (or mechanisms) in negotiations with incomplete information in which an outside option is a probabilistic conflict and a peaceful agreement is ex ante efficient. Applications include partnership, labor-management bargaining, pretrial negotiations, and international negotiations. I compute the set of interim incentive efficient mechanisms, the ex ante incentive efficient mechanism, as well as the neutral bargaining solution. I numerically illustrate that the focus on the ex ante incentive efficient mechanism as the most reasonable prediction is not robust. This paper justifies the neutral bargaining solution as the unique, robust solution among all interim incentive efficient mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Negotiation; Social contracts; Incomplete information; Incentive efficiency; Neutral bargaining solution |
| JEL: | C78 D74 D82 F51 J52 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2021rwp-187&r= |
| By: | Rüttenauer, Tobias; Best, Henning |
| Abstract: | The topic of environmental inequality, in general describing the unequal distribution of environmental pollution across different social groups, has received increasing attention in Germany and other European countries during the past decade. Though research points towards a disadvantage of minorities in Europe, conclusions regarding the extent of this disadvantage vary across studies. In this contribution, we thus examine whether the extent of environmental inequality depends on the measure of pollution and the spatial scale. We connect spatially aggregated data of the 2011 German census to geographical information of industrial facilities and pollution estimates of German-wide diffusion models. We then use spatial regression models to identify the disadvantage of foreign minorities across these measures. Furthermore, we perform geographically weighted regressions to scrutinize the role of the spatial scale and location. We find that the pollution minority gap is stronger for estimates based on industrial facilities than it is for general pollution models, though there is a consistent disadvantage of minorities within municipalities. Furthermore, we demonstrate that there is strong heterogeneity in the association between the share of foreign minorities and air pollution according to the spatial scale and location of the research area. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5tavs&r= |
| By: | Dobbie, Will; Liberman, Andres; Paravisini, Daniel; Pathania, Vikram S. |
| Abstract: | This paper tests for bias in consumer lending using administrative data from a high-cost lender in the United Kingdom. We motivate our analysis using a new principal-agent model of bias where loan examiners maximize a short-term outcome, not long-term profits, leading to bias against illiquid applicants at the margin of loan decisions. We identify the profitability of marginal applicants using the quasi-random assignment of loan examiners. Consistent with our model, we find significant bias against immigrant and older applicants when using the firm’s preferred measure of long-run profits, but not when using the short-run measure used to evaluate examiner performance. |
| Keywords: | discrimination; consumer credit |
| JEL: | J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:104984&r= |
| By: | Sacchetto, Camilla; Stern, Nicholas; Taylor, Charlotte |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2020–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111549&r= |
| By: | Ilzetzki, Ethan; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S. |
| Abstract: | On the twentieth anniversary of its inception, the euro has yet to expand its role as an international currency. We document this fact with a wide range of indicators including its role as an anchor or reference in exchange rate arrangements—which we argue is a portmanteau measure—and as a currency for the denomination of trade and assets. On all these dimensions, the euro comprises a far smaller share than that of the US dollar. Furthermore, that share has been roughly constant since 1999. By some measures, the euro plays no larger a role than the Deutschemark and French franc that it replaced. We explore the reasons for this underperformance. While the leading anchor currency may have a natural monopoly, a number of additional factors have limited the euro’s reach, including lack of financial center, limited geopolitical reach, and US and Chinese dominance in technology research. Most important, in our view, is the comparatively scarce supply of (safe) euro-denominated assets, which we document. The European Central Bank’ lack of policy clarity may have also played a role. We show that the euro era can be divided into a “Bundesbank-plus” period and a “Whatever it Takes” period. The first shows a smooth transition from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and continued to stabilize German inflation. The second period is characterised by an expanding ECB arsenal of credit facilities to European banks and sovereigns. |
| JEL: | E50 F30 F40 N20 |
| Date: | 2020–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:104100&r= |
| By: | Thomas Bouquet; Mehdi Hmyene; Fran\c{c}ois Porcher; Lorenzo Pugliese; Jad Zeroual |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the application of Simulated Bifurcation algorithms to approximate optimal asset allocations. It will provide the reader with an explanation of the physical principles underlying the method and a Python implementation of the latter applied to 441 assets belonging to the S&P500 index. In addition, the paper tackles the problem of the selection of an optimal sub-allocation; in this particular case, we find an adequate solution within an unrivaled timescale. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03092&r= |
| By: | Ferrari Massimo,; Pagliari Maria Sole, |
| Abstract: | In this paper we explore the cross-country implications of climate-related mitigation policies. Specifically, we set up a two-country, two-sector (brown vs green) DSGE model with negative production externalities stemming from carbon-dioxide emissions. We estimate the model using US and euro area data and we characterize welfare-enhancing equilibria under alternative containment policies. Three main policy implications emerge: i) fiscal policy should focus on reducing emissions by levying taxes on polluting production activities; ii) monetary policy should look through environmental objectives while standing ready to support the economy when the costs of the environmental transition materialize; iii) international cooperation is crucial to obtain a Pareto improvement under the proposed policies. We finally find that the objective of reducing emissions by 50%, which is compatible with the Paris agreement's goal of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius with respect to pre-industrial levels, would not be attainable in absence of international cooperation even with the support of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | DSGE model, open-economy macroeconomics, optimal policies, climate modelling. |
| JEL: | F42 E50 E60 F30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:815&r= |
| By: | Nallari, Anupama; Poorthuis, Ate |
| Abstract: | ‘Village’ as a metaphor, propelled by mobilizing nostalgia for the ‘rural’ as counter to urban fragmentation, has been used across nations to engender a sense of place and community in urban spaces. In Singapore, the narrative of kampung (Malay for village), rooted in restorative nostalgia, has been used repeatedly to foster living in harmony. However, it remains unclear in what ways ‘kampung’ and related social policies resonate with current citizens. The main objective of this research is to generate a grounded, interpretive lens on the term kampung to better understand its meaning and relevance in the context of urban living. A mixed methods approach comprising discourse analysis, in-depth interviews and Q-methodology was used to engage a diverse group of residents in generating grounded perspectives around the construct. We show ‘kampung’ is a heterogenous concept that can be understood through five analytically distinct perspectives wherein race, place, neighbouring, and personal agency vis-à-vis the role of government are recurring themes. The findings lend a social constructivist perspective to wider geographical debates around the urban/rural dichotomy and outline some possibilities for ‘kampung’ under present conditions. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:c2rd5&r= |
| By: | Tugce Karatas; Ali Hirsa |
| Abstract: | Market indicators such as CPI and GDP have been widely used over decades to identify the stage of business cycles and also investment attractiveness of sectors given market conditions. In this paper, we propose a two-stage methodology that consists of predicting ETF prices for each sector using market indicators and ranking sectors based on their predicted rate of returns. We initially start with choosing sector specific macroeconomic indicators and implement Recursive Feature Elimination algorithm to select the most important features for each sector. Using our prediction tool, we implement different Recurrent Neural Networks models to predict the future ETF prices for each sector. We then rank the sectors based on their predicted rate of returns. We select the best performing model by evaluating the annualized return, annualized Sharpe ratio, and Calmar ratio of the portfolios that includes the top four ranked sectors chosen by the model. We also test the robustness of the model performance with respect to lookback windows and look ahead windows. Our empirical results show that our methodology beats the equally weighted portfolio performance even in the long run. We also find that Echo State Networks exhibits an outstanding performance compared to other models yet it is faster to implement compared to other RNN models. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02838&r= |
| By: | Droste, Nils (Lund University); Lienhoop, Nele; Hansjürgens, Bernd |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses participatory budgeting in multilevel governance settings. The Institutional Development and Analysis framework is applied to evaluate two Ecuadorian municipal case studies. Here, participatory budgeting piloted bottom-up institutions to include citizens’ preferences in the allocation of local government expenditures. To formalize and up-scale these local innovations, participatory budgeting became a requirement for all government levels under the 2008 constitution. Higher government level requirements for planning subsequently introduced conflicting demands on decentral budgetary processes and led to partial re-centralization of municipal investment planning. The study thus exemplifies difficulties of i) vertical policy coordination in multilevel participatory budgeting and ii) integrating long-term planning in yearly participatory budgeting investment decisions. These problems need to be resolved to facilitate legitimate and effective participatory budgeting in multilevel governments. |
| Date: | 2021–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:w6usk&r= |
| By: | Rüdiger Fahlenbrach (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)); Eric Jondeau (University of Lausanne - Faculty of Business and Economics (HEC Lausanne); Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the carbon footprint and emissions of the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) U.S. equity portfolio and compare its carbon performance to those of the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock, and to the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG). The SNB portfolio does as well as BlackRock's but has a significantly worse carbon footprint than the portfolio of GPFG. Few firms are responsible for much of the carbon emissions of the SNB portfolio so that carbon conscious investment approaches have a large impact on portfolio emissions but little impact on performance, diversification, or tracking error. We explore several avenues to reduce the carbon footprint of the SNB's portfolio, while not altering its financial performance. If the SNB excluded the firms with the highest carbon intensity rep- resenting 1% of the portfolio value and reinvested in the companies with the lowest intensity in the same sector, the total financed carbon emissions would be reduced by 22% in 2019, with no impact on the portfolio's financial performance. |
| Keywords: | Portfolio carbon footprint, Decarbonized financial investment |
| JEL: | G11 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2159&r= |
| By: | Barbara Annicchiarico; Stefano Carattini; Carolyn Fischer; Garth Heutel |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between business cycles and the design and effects of environmental policies, particularly those with economy-wide significance like climate policies. First, we provide a brief review of the literature related to this topic, from initial explorations using real business cycle models to New Keynesian extensions, open-economy variations, and issues of monetary policy and financial regulations. Next, we provide a list of the main findings that emerge from this literature that are potentially most relevant to policymakers, including the impacts of policy on volatility and how to design policy to adjust to cycles. Finally, we propose several important remaining research questions. |
| JEL: | E32 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29032&r= |
| By: | Mira Frick (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Ryota Iijima (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Yuhta Ishii (Department of Economics at Pennsylvania State University) |
| Abstract: | We study settings in which, prior to playing an incomplete information game, players observe many draws of private signals about the state from some information structure. Signals are i.i.d. across draws, but may display arbitrary correlation across players. For each information structure, we deï¬ ne a simple learning efficiency index, which only considers the statistical distance between the worst-informed player’s marginal signal distributions in different states. We show, ï¬ rst, that this index characterizes the speed of common learning (Cripps, Ely, Mailath, and Samuelson, 2008): In particular, the speed at which players achieve approximate common knowledge of the state coincides with the slowest player’s speed of individual learning, and does not depend on the correlation across players’ signals. Second, we build on this characterization to provide a ranking over information structures: We show that, with sufficiently many signal draws, information structures with a higher learning efficiency index lead to better equilibrium outcomes, robustly for a rich class of games and objective functions. We discuss implications of our results for constrained information design in games and for the question when information structures are complements vs. substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Common learning, Learning efficiency, Comparison of information structures |
| JEL: | D80 D83 C70 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2299&r= |
| By: | Georges Prat (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Remzi Uctum (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Using survey-based data we show that oil price expectations are not rational, implying that the ex-ante premium is a more relevant concept than the widely popular expost premium. We propose for the 3-and 12-month horizons a portfolio choice model with risky oil assets and a risk-free asset. At the maximized expected utility the risk premium is defined as the risk price times the expected oil return volatility. A state-space model, where the risk prices are represented as stochastic unobservable components and where expected volatilities depend on historical squared returns, is estimated using Kalman filtering. We find that the representative investor is risk seeking at short horizons and risk averse at longer horizons. We examine the economic factors driving risk prices whose signs are shown to be consistent with the predictions of the prospect theory. An upward sloped term structure of oil risk premia prevails in average over the period. |
| Keywords: | oil market,oil price expectations,ex-ante risk premium JEL classification : D81 |
| Date: | 2021–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03318785&r= |
| By: | Bergtold, Jason S.; Boys, Kathryn A.; Penn, Jerrod; Ehmke, Mariah D.; Katare, Bhagyashree; Kiesel, Kristin |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession, Agricultural and Food Policy, Health Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312782&r= |
| By: | Marion Leroutier (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Decreasing greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation is crucial to tackle climate change. Yet, empirically little is known on the effectiveness of economic instruments in the power sector. This paper examines the impact of the UK Carbon Price Support (CPS), a carbon tax implemented in the UK power sector in 2013. Compared to a synthetic control unit built from other European countries, emissions from the UK power sector declined by 26 percent on an average year between 2013 and 2017. Bounds on the effects of potential UK confounding policies and several placebo tests suggest that the carbon tax caused at least 80% of this decrease. Three mechanisms are highlighted: a decrease in emissions at the intensive margin; the closure of some high-emission plants at the extensive margin; and a higher probability of closure than in the synthetic UK for plants at risk of closure due to European air quality regulations. This paper shows that a carbon tax on electricity generation can lead to successful decarbonisation. |
| Keywords: | Synthetic control method,Synthetic control method carbon tax,Electricity generation,Carbon tax |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:halshs-03265636&r= |
| By: | Hossain, Ekram; Dechun, HUANG; ZHANG, Changzheng; Neequaye, Ebenezer Nickson; Van, Vu Thi; Ali, Mohammad |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to examine export, import and trade intensity, export specialization index, Herfindahl-Hirschman index for bilateral concentration and diversification indices to analyze the specializations, structure and trends of deficit in bilateral trade between Bangladesh and China from 1995 to 2018 and policy recommendations in this regard. The results reveal that the gap of export and import intensity between Bangladesh and China is widening rapidly perennial. The export specialization indices expose very significant outcomes where among the analyzed 16 sectors; 6 sectors exhibit high specialization, 3 sectors demonstrate medium, 3 sectors exhibit low and the rest of the 4 sectors disclose no specialization for Bangladesh’s export to China. The findings of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reveal that from 1995 to 2010 the export of Bangladesh to China concentrated within few sectors but from the year 2011 to 2018 the export has been reclassifying steadily into diversification. The overall analysis of the indices suggests the necessity to be improved of the level of intra-industry trade between China and Bangladesh. Moreover, emphasis should be given to the sectors having a high specialization that endure the capacity to narrow the trade deficit. Furthermore, the export baskets of Bangladesh to China require to be diversified. Hereafter, various measures and implications are also suggested in the policy recommendation for further improvement. |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7j9vh&r= |
| By: | Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay |
| Abstract: | We have entered a new era of machine learning (ML), where the most accurate algorithm with superior predictive power may not even be deployable, unless it is admissible under the regulatory constraints. This has led to great interest in developing fair, transparent and trustworthy ML methods. The purpose of this article is to introduce a new information-theoretic learning framework (admissible machine learning) and algorithmic risk-management tools (InfoGram, L-features, ALFA-testing) that can guide an analyst to redesign off-the-shelf ML methods to be regulatory compliant, while maintaining good prediction accuracy. We have illustrated our approach using several real-data examples from financial sectors, biomedical research, marketing campaigns, and the criminal justice system. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07380&r= |
| By: | Svraka, András (Tax Policy and Research Unit, Ministry of Finance) |
| Abstract: | We analyse regional wage inequalities in the 2010s using administrative data sources at highly disaggregated regional levels, including commuting zones. The decline in national wage inequalities during this period is reflected at regional levels and we find convergence between regions in income levels and in the decreasing weight of between region inequalities as well. There are still large differences, and high income employees are concentrated in prosperous regions. Interregional mobility was also a driving force behind changes in income inequalities even in a country with low overall mobility rates. High income employees are much more likely to move, typically from less central, less developed regions to more central, larger labour markets. We find some evidence for a transitory mobility premium, although we cannot establish the causality of this relationship. |
| JEL: | D31 J61 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auo:moftwp:9&r= |
| By: | Colmer, Jonathan (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | To what degree can labor reallocation mitigate the economic consequences of weather-driven agricultural productivity shocks? I estimate that temperature-driven reductions in the demand for agricultural labor in India are associated with increases in non-agricultural employment. This suggests that the ability of non-agricultural sectors to absorb workers may play a key role in attenuating the economic consequences of agricultural productivity shocks. Exploiting firm-level variation in the propensity to absorb workers, I estimate relative expansions in manufacturing output in more flexible labor markets. Estimates suggest that, in the absence of labor reallocation, local economic losses could be up to 69% higher. |
| Keywords: | temperature, labor reallocation, industrial production |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14604&r= |
| By: | Eduardo Dávila (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Ansgar Walther (Imperial College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the optimal design of second-best corrective regulation, when some agents or activities cannot be perfectly regulated. We show that policy elasticities and Pigouvian wedges are sufficient statistics to characterize the marginal welfare impact of regulatory policies in a large class of environments. We show that the optimal second-best policy is determined by a subset of policy elasticities: leakage elasticities, and characterize the marginal value of relaxing regulatory constraints. We apply our results to scenarios with unregulated agents/activities and with uniform regulation across agents/activities. We illustrate our results in applications to shadow banking, scale-invariant regulation, asset substitution, and fire sales. |
| Keywords: | Corrective regulation, Second-best policy, Pigouvian taxation, Policy elasticities, Leakage elasticities, Regulatory arbitrage, Financial regulation |
| JEL: | G18 G28 H21 D62 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2295&r= |
| By: | Gerardin Mathilde,; Ranvier Martial. |
| Abstract: | In the context of the Banque de France’s monthly business survey, this document presents the main findings of the textual analysis of business leaders’ comments. First, the richness of these data is illustrated via an elementary sentiment index and the identification of the main social movements since 2009 by means of keywords. Then, the article presents two statistical applications whose reproducibility is discussed. The first one, applied to the 2018 yellow vests and the 2019 strikes, aims to estimate the impact on GDP of an event whose effect is unequivocal. The second, backed by the study of Brexit, aims to characterize, using a supervised learning model and word vectors, the effects of a complex event with multiple impacts. |
| Keywords: | Textual Analysis, Business Survey, Sentiment Index, Keywords, Word Vectors,Brexit, Social Movements. |
| JEL: | C21 C45 C52 E32 D22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:821&r= |
| By: | Eswar Prasad |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a broad analytical overview of how technological changes are likely to affect the practice of central banking. While the advent of decentralized cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin has dominated the headlines, a broader set of changes wrought by advances in technology are likely to eventually have a more profound and lasting impact on central banks. |
| Date: | 2020–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000566:019463&r= |
| By: | Dünhaupt, Petra; Herr, Hansjörg |
| Abstract: | In the last decades in particular, national governments as well as development agencies and international organizations have increasingly turned to participation in global value chains (GVCs) as a development strategy. However, whether the positive development effects of integration are large enough to warrant trade liberalization cannot be answered in a straightforward manner. In this article, we show how development recommendations by international institutions and Western governments have changed since World War II and now ultimately recommend integration into GVCs. Deregulation and liberalization of international trade and capital flows have fueled two opposing trends, which also affect GVCs: on the one hand, there is increasing concentration at the corporate level. On the other hand, globalization has resulted in more countries participating in international trade including via industrial production. Both developments have led to multinationals being able to expand their rent-seeking opportunities while also reducing production costs, especially for simple manufactured goods. Today, it is no longer sufficient for a country to industrialize in order to catch up with the rest of the world, as the prices for industrial goods and quality of productions have fallen tremendously in some cases, at least in comparison to developed countries. Integration into GVCs seems to provide only minimal macroeconomic benefits beyond the positive effects for individual companies and sectors. Industrial policy therefore seems indispensable for catch-up development. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains,economic development,industrial policy,export market share concentration,import price development |
| JEL: | B27 F13 F63 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:1652021&r= |
| By: | Hilscher, Jens; Raviv, Alon; Reis, Ricardo |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new method for measuring the impact of inflation on the real value of public debt. The distribution of debt debasement is based on two inputs: the distribution of privately held nominal debt by maturity, for which we provide new estimates, and the distribution of risk-adjusted inflation dynamics, for which we provide a novel copula estimator using options data. We find that inflation by itself is unlikely to lower the U.S. fiscal burden significantly because debt is concentrated at short maturities and perceived inflation shocks have little short-run persistence and are small. |
| Keywords: | inflation; debt debasement; value at risk; inflation derivatives; debt maturity structure; financial repression; GG009759; GA682288; OUP deal |
| JEL: | F3 G3 E6 |
| Date: | 2021–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107543&r= |
| By: | Shahrzad Safaeimanesh (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, North Cyprus); Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario K7L 3N6, Canada) |
| Abstract: | Trade facilitation is important for the South African Customs Union (SACU) countries because the expansion of international trade is a priority for enhancing their economic growth. Unfortunately, the high trade compliance costs facing importers and exporters operating in SACU conflict with this objective. This article aims to quantify the annual economic welfare gains that the member countries of SACU could realise from reforms that would reduce the documentary and border compliance time and costs. We use a partial equilibrium welfare economics framework that uses up-to-date sets of general equilibrium estimates of import demand and export supply elasticities by country. The impacts on the volume of trade flows and economic welfare are quantified to reduce documentary and border compliance time and trade compliance costs. The economic welfare changes from reducing the documentary and border compliance time and costs for imports and exports would be between US$2.2 billion and US$3.7 billion (2018 prices) or between 0.54% and 0.90% of GDP of the SACU countries. The economic welfare gains from reducing the excess administrative costs for imports and exports of SACU members would be between US$2.2 billion and US$3.7 billion (2018 prices) or between 0.54% and 0.90% of the GDP of the SACU. The most important reforms needed to realize these cost savings include a Single Window administrative structure. In this case, both customs, health, welfare, and controls and the payment of all duties, taxes, and licenses are handled by a single administrative office. Failure to move fast on such changes would have a negative impact on the well-being of SACU members. |
| Keywords: | Trade facilitation; Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU); South Africa; Trade compliance costs; Trade reform; Economic welfare gains |
| JEL: | D60 F10 F14 F15 O12 O24 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:4577&r= |
| By: | Angela Acocella; Chris Caplice; Yossi Sheffi |
| Abstract: | Dynamic macroeconomic conditions and non-binding truckload freight contracts enable both shippers and carriers to behave opportunistically. We present an empirical analysis of carrier reciprocity in the US truckload transportation sector to demonstrate whether consistent performance and fair pricing by shippers when markets are in their favor result in maintained primary carrier tender acceptance when markets turn. The results suggest carriers have short memories; they do not remember shippers' previous period pricing, tendering behavior, or performance when making freight acceptance decisions. However, carriers appear to be myopic and respond to shippers' current market period behaviors, ostensibly without regard to shippers' previous behaviors. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07348&r= |
| By: | Makridis, Christos A. (Arizona State University); Hirsch, Barry (Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | We assess the labor market experiences of military veterans, focusing on three major outcomes, among others, controlling for a wide array of demographic characteristics and industry and occupational fixed effects. First, we find that male and female veterans receive civilian earnings nearly equivalent to nonveteran men and women. This finding implies that military experience is valued in the labor market similarly to foregone civilian experience. Second, veterans are clustered in occupations with somewhat lower than average employment and real earnings growth, and in metropolitan areas with lower levels and growth of real GDP per capita. Third, veterans experience lower returns to formal educational investments (e.g., college) than do nonveterans. Veterans realize earnings gains from professional licenses, but their returns are lower than for nonveterans. These gains are concentrated among science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) jobs, suggesting that veterans could help meet the growing demand for tech talent and artificial intelligence skills. |
| Keywords: | military veterans, earnings levels and dispersion, work experience, licensing, public sector, occupation growth |
| JEL: | J3 J4 J44 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14636&r= |
| By: | Nobuyuki Hanaki; Takashi Hayashi; Michele Lombardi; Kazuhito Ogawa |
| Abstract: | This study experimentally evaluates the performance of partial equilibrium mechanisms when different sectors run their mechanisms separately, despite the existence of complementarity between them. In our simple laboratory experiment setting that includes two sectors, each sector runs the top-trading-cycle mechanism. There is a Pareto-dominant equilibrium, but it requires coordination across sectors. Our results show that coordination failure occurs more frequently when there is asymmetry between the two sectors compared with the one-sector benchmark, even without inter-sectoral complementarity. When mechanisms are run sequentially across the two sectors, such failure is substantially reduced, compared with when they are run simultaneously. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1138&r= |
| By: | Martin Paldam (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | The paper is an empirical study of eight democracy indices and income. The aggregation problem for these indices is large, and thus the gray zone of measurement uncertainty is wide. The indices have no natural scale. Even the top anchor of full democracy is treated differently. In addition, the indices are conceptually different, use different scales, etc. However, they are still highly correlated. Income and all eight indices have one and only one common factor, which is the Democratic Transition, except in the OPEC/MENA sample. Within-project indices are even more correlated. Thus, the details of the assessments used by each project are more important than the conceptual differences. A country-by-country comparison is made of Polity and the Polyarchy index after it is converted to the Polity scale. Many countries are treated differently by the indices. The difference between the two is an estimate of the measurement uncertainty for democracy indices. It is almost three Polity points. |
| Keywords: | Democracy indices, aggregation problem, democratic transition |
| JEL: | A12 K10 P51 |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2021-10&r= |
| By: | Huitfeld, Ingrid (Statistics Norway); Kostol, Andreas Ravndal (Arizona State University); Nimczik, Jan Sebastian (European School of Management and Technology (ESMT)); Weber, Andrea (Central European University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new method to study how workers’ career and wage profiles are shaped by internal labor markets (ILM) and job hierarchies in firms. Our paper tackles the conceptual challenge of organizing jobs within firms into hierarchy levels by proposing a data-driven ranking method based on observed worker flows between occupations within firms. We apply our method to linked employer-employee data from Norway that records fine-grained occupational codes and tracks contract changes within firms. Our findings confirm existing evidence that is primarily based on case studies for single firms. We expand on this by documenting substantial heterogeneity in the structure and hierarchy of ILMs across a broad range of large firms. Our findings on wage and promotion dynamics in ILMs are consistent with models of careers in organizations. |
| Keywords: | internal labor markets, organization of labor, wage setting |
| JEL: | J31 J62 M5 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14637&r= |
| By: | Stefania Bortolotti (Economics Department, University of Bologna & IZA); Felix Kölle (Department of Economics, University of Cologne, Albertus MagnusPlatz, 50923 Cologne, Germany); Lukas Wenner (Department of Economics, University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | In social and economic interactions, individuals often exploit informational asymmetries and behave dishonestly to pursue private ends. In many of these situations the costs and benefits from dishonest behavior do not accrue immediately and at the same time. In this paper, we experimentally investigate the role of time on dishonesty. Contrary to our predictions, we find that neither delaying the gains from cheating, nor increasing temporal engagement with one's own unethical behavior reduces the likelihood of cheating. Furthermore, allowing for a delay between the time when private information is obtained and when it is reported does not affect cheating in our experiment. |
| Keywords: | Dishonesty, cheating, delay, discounting, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D82 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:111&r= |
| By: | Hossain Ahmed Taufiq |
| Abstract: | Water-logging is a major challenge for Dhaka city, the capital of Bangladesh. The rapid, unregulated, and unplanned urbanization, as well as detrimental social, economic, infrastructural, and environmental consequences, not to mention diseases like dengue, challenge the several crash programs combating water-logging in the city. This study provides a brief contextual analysis of the Dhakas topography and natural, as well as storm water drainage systems, before concentrating on the man-made causes and effects of water-logging, ultimately exploring a few remedial measures. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12625&r= |
| By: | Kee, Shaira Limson; Garganera, John Patrick; Maravilla, Nicholle Mae Amor; Garganera, Wilbert; Fermin, Jamie Ledesma; AlDahoul, Nouar; Karim, Hezerul Abdul; Tan, Myles Joshua |
| Abstract: | From a public health perspective, this opinion article discusses why it is necessary to integrate Artificial Intelligence (AI) into the mental health practices in the Philippines. The use of AI systems is an optimum solution to the rising demand for more accessible, cost-efficient, and inclusive healthcare. With the recent developments, the Philippines is deemed to have sufficient capacity to adopt this agendum. This article serves as a call for the introduction of advanced detection tools and predictive analytics in the medical field, especially in the mental health discipline. |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3wg5p&r= |
| By: | Contu, Davide; Mourato, Susana; Kaya, Ozgur |
| Abstract: | Nuclear energy is an energy source that is usually unfavourable among the public due to its inherent risks. However, it presents a number of benefits, including the possibility to reduce emissions and the contribution to tackle climate change. Among the countries adopting nuclear energy, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is unusual in that a large share of its residents consists of expatriates who live only part of their lives in the country with no (or highly unlikely) access to citizenship. This distinctive population structure offers the opportunity to investigate the effect of transient residency on acceptance and preferences towards nuclear energy. We conducted this investigation by designing a stated preferences-based survey, targeting an online nationwide sample. The survey collected information on socio-economic characteristics and attitudes, including views on perceived risks and benefits of nuclear energy, views towards different energy sources and life satisfaction. Results indicate that transient individuals, especially those who are more satisfied with their lives in the UAE, are significantly less likely to oppose the construction of new nuclear plants. These individuals are characterized by a more positive perception of benefits over risks arising from nuclear energy. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | choice experiments; Nuclear energy; social acceptability; transient resident; willingness to accept; 1350515 |
| JEL: | D62 D82 Q48 Q51 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103432&r= |
| By: | Moustafa, Khaled |
| Abstract: | In its current mode of identification of scientific publications, the digital object identifier (DOI) is not more than a web linking of published material to their publishing sources. When a given DOI is searched in the DOI website (doi.org), we are redirected to the publishing websites, if the material is available, or an error message (Not Found) will appear if the DOI-associated content is not available or has moved to a new location. To bestow a worthwhile value to DOI assignations, I suggest the establishment of a unique persistent DOI database (for e.g., as a DOI hub, DOI library, or DOI indexer) in which all the DOI assigned by publishers and journals will be listed in one and same place with basics bibliographic metadata and complete citation information, including the DOI link itself, authors’ names, manuscripts’ titles, publishing source, date of publication, and ideally abstracts and full text if available for free (open access). As a result, when a DOI is searched in the DOI hub, full bibliographic information should be retrievable regardless of its status in the publishing source. Basic indexation information and metadata associated with published articles will thus be always accessible and findable independently from the publishing sources. A unique, general and long-term preserved DOI hub will make it easy to search, find and cite scientific literature from the various scientific fields even if a journal or publisher ceases its publishing activity. |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gr7ue&r= |
| By: | Sebastian Rausch (ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University, Germany, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA); Hidemichi Yonezawa (Division for Energy and Environmental Economics at the Research Department at Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Technology policy is the most widespread form of climate policy and is often preferred over seemingly efficient carbon pricing. We propose a new explanation for this observation: gains that predominantly accrue to households with large capital assets and that influence majority decisions in favor of technology policy. We study climate policy choices in an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous energy technologies and distortionary income taxation. Compared to carbon pricing, green technology policy leads to a pronounced capital subsidy effect that benefits most of the current generations but burdens future generations. Based on majority voting which disregards future generations, green technology policies are favored over a carbon tax. Smart “polluter-pays” financing of green technology policies enables obtaining the support of current generations while realizing efficiency gains for future generations. |
| Keywords: | Climate Policy; Green Technology Policy; Carbon Pricing; Overlapping Generations; Intergenerational Distribution; Social Welfare; General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | Q54 Q48 Q58 D58 H23 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-362&r= |
| By: | Kraft, Kornelius (TU Dortmund); Lammers, Alexander (TU Dortmund) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we report the results of an empirical study on the employment growth effects of a policy intervention, explicitly aimed at increasing placement efficiency of the Federal Employment Agency in Germany. We use the Hartz III reform in the year 2004 as an exogenous intervention that improves the matching process and compare establishments that use the services of the Federal Employment Agency with establishments that do not use the placement services. Using detailed German establishment level data, our difference-in-differences estimates reveal an increase in employment growth among those firms that use the agency for their recruitment activities compared to non-user firms. After the Hartz III reform was in place, establishments using the agency grew roughly two percentage points faster in terms of employment relative to non-users and those establishments achieve an increase in the proportion of hires. We provide several robustness tests using, for example, inverse-probability weighting to additionally account for differences in observable characteristics. Our paper highlights the importance of the placement service on the labor demand side, in particular on the so far overlooked establishment level. |
| Keywords: | Hartz III reform, Federal Employment Agency, matching efficiency, employment growth, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | J23 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14629&r= |
| By: | Zhengyu Shi; Libo Wu; Haoqi Qian; Yingjie Tian |
| Abstract: | Inferring the uncertainties in economic conditions are of significant importance for both decision makers as well as market players. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to construct the Economic Condition Uncertainty (ECU) index that can be used to infer the economic condition uncertainties. The ECU index is a dimensionless index ranges between zero and one, this makes it to be comparable among sectors, regions and periods. We use the daily electricity consumption data of nearly 20 thousand firms in Shanghai from 2018 to 2020 to construct the ECU indexes. Results show that all ECU indexes, no matter at sectoral level or regional level, successfully captured the negative impacts of COVID-19 on Shanghai's economic conditions. Besides, the ECU indexes also presented the heterogeneities in different districts as well as in different sectors. This reflects the facts that changes in uncertainties of economic conditions are mainly related to regional economic structures and targeted regulation policies faced by sectors. The ECU index can also be easily extended to measure uncertainties of economic conditions in different fields which has great potentials in the future. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11593&r= |
| By: | Jules Linden; Cathal O'Donoghue; Denisa M. Sologon |
| Abstract: | During recent crisis, wage subsidies played a major role in sheltering firms and households from economic shocks. During COVID-19, most workers were affected and many liberal welfare states introduced new temporary wage subsidies to protected workers' earnings and employment (OECD, 2021). New wage subsidies marked a departure from the structure of traditional income support payments and required reform. This paper uses simulated datasets to assess the structure and incentives of the Irish COVID-19 wage subsidy scheme (CWS) under five designs. We use a nowcasting approach to update 2017 microdata, producing a near real time picture of the labour market at the peak of the crisis. Using microsimulation modelling, we assess the impact of different designs on income replacement, work incentives and income inequality. Our findings suggest that pro rata designs support middle earners more and flat rate designs support low earners more. We find evidence for strong work disincentives under all designs, though flat rate designs perform better. Disincentives are primarily driven by generous unemployment payments and work related costs. The impact of design on income inequality depends on the generosity of payments. Earnings related pro rata designs were associated to higher market earnings inequality. The difference in inequality levels falls once benefits, taxes and work related costs are considered. In our discussion, we turn to transaction costs, the rationale for reform and reintegration of CWS. We find some support for the claim that design changes were motivated by political considerations. We suggest that establishing permanent wage subsidies based on sectorial turnover rules could offer enhanced protection to middle-and high-earners and reduce uncertainty, the need for reform, and the risk of politically motivated designs. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04198&r= |
| By: | Azacis, Helmuts (Cardiff Business School); Vida, Peter (Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies, Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | A competition authority has an objective, which specifies what output profile firms need to produce as a function of production costs. These costs change over time and are only known by the firms. The objective is implementable if in equilibrium, the firms cannot collude on their reports to the competition authority. Assuming that the firms can only report prices and quantities, we characterize what objectives are one-shot and repeatedly implementable. We use this characterization to identify conditions when the competitive output is implementable. We extend the analysis to the cases when a buyer also knows the private information of firms and when the firms can supply hard evidence about their costs. |
| Keywords: | Collusion, Antitrust, (Repeated) Implementation, Monotonicity, Price-Quantity Mechanism, Hard Evidenc |
| JEL: | C72 C73 D71 D82 L41 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/19&r= |
| By: | Kelly Jones |
| Abstract: | An unintended birth at an early age has the potential to interrupt a woman’s education, with implications for her future career and earnings. This paper investigates the impact of abortion access on women’s economic outcomes later in life. I corroborate earlier findings that abortion access during adolescence and early adulthood reduces early births. I then offer updated evidence that, controlling for contraception access, abortion access increases educa¬tional attainment, career outcomes and earnings of black women and reduces their poverty and reliance on public assistance. Findings suggest that fertility is a significant pathway by which abortion access affects work status and family income, but that other pathways such as expectations and investment in human capital are more relevant for occupational choice and personal earnings. |
| Keywords: | fertility, family planning, abortion, economics of gender |
| JEL: | J13 I2 J24 J16 N32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:202102&r= |
| By: | Luisa Brunori (CHJ - Centre d'histoire judiciaire - UMR 8025 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Lille) |
| Abstract: | The "Suma de tratos y contratos" (1569-1571) by Tomás de Mercado is the first legal treatise on trade that explicitly takes into account the specificities of Spanish trade with the Indias. Tomás de Mercado was faced with very profound changes in trade: long distances, large convoy sizes, the need for large amounts of funding, high risk, variations in prices and the value of money... From a theological-legal point of view, these upheavals posed new and complex questions. Mercado, advisor to the merchants of Seville and an excellent knowledge of New Spain, analyses the sudden transformation of economic and juridical practice with finesse and realism. The 'Suma' is thus an extraordinary real-time testimony to the profound transformations taking place in 16th century commerce. Moreover, faced with fundamental questions of moral order and juridical legitimacy, Mercado proposes legal solutions of high equilibrium in which theological imperatives are masterfully reconciled with the needs of transatlantic commercial practice. |
| Keywords: | Legal history,Business history,Early modern History,Law and Economics,Late scholasticism,Commercial law |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03257298&r= |
| By: | Marie-Alix Deval (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sophie Hooge (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benoit Weil (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The paper studies the institutionalization of a new domain of expertise dedicated to the exploration of the unknown in two established French technological firms with strong organizations of experts. The research is built in a comparative qualitative longitudinal research partnership with Renault (global car manufacturer) and SNCF (national railway company). This research highlights 4 main results: firstly, experts of radical innovation management are experts at managing the unknown in industrial contexts and breakthrough innovation strategic issues, wielding tools, and methods for breakthrough exploration. Secondly, experts of the exploration of the unknown support the other experts to explore the unknown. In this way (third result) this domain emergence highlights a new kind of interaction between innovation and expertise that (last result) cements breakthrough exploration capability as a strategic field. |
| Date: | 2021–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03264373&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Babcock University, Nigeria); Sheriffdeen A. Tella (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | African nations have in time, passed over-relied on remittances inflow to augment domestic finances needed for growth. Despite the volume and magnitude of remittances that have to serve as an alternative source of investment financing, African remains mostly underdeveloped. The altruistic motives of sending remittances to Africa are likely to fade with time. In this study, we argued that the altruistic connection that has been the bedrock of sending money to African countries would eventually fade when the older generation passes away. To lean empirical credence to this assertion, we examine the structural linkages and the channels through which remittances predicts variations in financial developmentas a threshold for gauging the future of African economies. We gathered panel data on indices of remittances and financial development for thirty (30) African countries from 2003 through 2017. We employed the dynamic panel system generalised method of moment (dynamic system GMM) estimation procedure to establish a baseline level relationship between the variables of interest. We adjusted for heterogeneity assumptions inherent in ordinary panel estimation and found a basis for the strict orthogonal relationship among the variables. Findings revealed that a percentage increase in remittances inflow has a short-run, positive relationship with financial development in Africa. The result further revealed that the exchange rate negatively influences financial development in Africa. Based on the findings, it is suggested that, while attracting migrants' transfers which can have significant short-run poverty-alleviating advantages, in the long run, it might be more beneficial for African governments to foster financial sector development using alternative financial development strategies in anticipation of a flow of remittance that will eventually dry up. |
| Keywords: | Remittance; Financial Development; African Economies; System GMM; Africa |
| JEL: | F37 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/053&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Babcock University, Nigeria); Sheriffdeen A. Tella (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | African nations have in time, passed over-relied on remittances inflow to augment domestic finances needed for growth. Despite the volume and magnitude of remittances that have to serve as an alternative source of investment financing, African remains mostly underdeveloped. The altruistic motives of sending remittances to Africa are likely to fade with time. In this study, we argued that the altruistic connection that has been the bedrock of sending money to African countries would eventually fade when the older generation passes away. To lean empirical credence to this assertion, we examine the structural linkages and the channels through which remittances predicts variations in financial developmentas a threshold for gauging the future of African economies. We gathered panel data on indices of remittances and financial development for thirty (30) African countries from 2003 through 2017. We employed the dynamic panel system generalised method of moment (dynamic system GMM) estimation procedure to establish a baseline level relationship between the variables of interest. We adjusted for heterogeneity assumptions inherent in ordinary panel estimation and found a basis for the strict orthogonal relationship among the variables. Findings revealed that a percentage increase in remittances inflow has a short-run, positive relationship with financial development in Africa. The result further revealed that the exchange rate negatively influences financial development in Africa. Based on the findings, it is suggested that, while attracting migrants' transfers which can have significant short-run poverty-alleviating advantages, in the long run, it might be more beneficial for African governments to foster financial sector development using alternative financial development strategies in anticipation of a flow of remittance that will eventually dry up. |
| Keywords: | Remittance; Financial Development; African Economies; System GMM; Africa |
| JEL: | F37 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/053&r= |
| By: | Ben Boukai |
| Abstract: | Following Boukai (2021) we present the Generalized Gamma Distribution as a possible RND for modeling European options prices under Heston's (1993) stochastic volatility model. This distribution is seen as especially useful in situations in which the spot's price follows a negatively skewed distribution and hence, Black-Scholes based (i.e. the log-normal distribution) modeling is largely inapt. We apply the Generalized Gamma distribution to modeling current market option data on three large market ETFs, namely the SPY, IWM and QQQ. The current option chain for these three ETFs a shows of a pronounced skew of their volatility `smile' which indicates a likely distortion in the Black-Scholes modeling of such option data. We provide a a thorough modeling of the available option data we have on each ETF (the October 15, 2021 with 63 to expiration) based on the Generalized Gamma Distribution and compared it to the option pricing and RND modeling obtained directly from a well-calibrated Heston's (1993) SV model (both theoretically and empirically, using Monte-Carlo simulations of the spot's price). All three ETFs exhibit negatively skewed distributions which are well-matched with those derived from the Generalized Gamma Distribution. The inadequacy of the Black-Scholes modeling in such instances with negatively skewed distribution is further illustrated by its impact on the hedging factor, delta, and the immediate implications to the retail trader. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07937&r= |
| By: | Sakae Oya; Teruo Nakatsuma |
| Abstract: | Harvey et al. (2010) extended the Bayesian estimation method by Sahu et al. (2003) to a multivariate skew-elliptical distribution with a general skewness matrix, and applied it to Bayesian portfolio optimization with higher moments. Although their method is epochal in the sense that it can handle the skewness dependency among asset returns and incorporate higher moments into portfolio optimization, it cannot identify all elements in the skewness matrix due to label switching in the Gibbs sampler. To deal with this identification issue, we propose to modify their sampling algorithm by imposing a positive lower-triangular constraint on the skewness matrix of the multivariate skew- elliptical distribution and improved interpretability. Furthermore, we propose a Bayesian sparse estimation of the skewness matrix with the horseshoe prior to further improve the accuracy. In the simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed method with the identification constraint can successfully estimate the true structure of the skewness dependency while the existing method suffers from the identification issue. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04019&r= |
| By: | Gupta, Kanika; Gupta, Kashish |
| Abstract: | The policy of Atma-nirbhar Bharat is aimed at making India a self-sufficient and self-generating economy. This self-reliance sentiment was bolstered by anti-China protests due to the Galwan valley standoff. In this context, many Indian nationalists have vouched for the boycott of “Made in China” products especially electronics since they form 50% of Chinese imports and so moving to Vietnam is appreciated as a viable option. In this context, this paper uses the tools of comparative data analytics and constitute a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze the efficacy of substituting Chinese imports with those from Vietnam and make a case for making this substitution possible. |
| Date: | 2021–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bs3f2&r= |
| By: | Yvonne Giesing; Reem Hassan |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the 2011 Egyptian revolution and its aftermath on migration intentions of the Egyptian youth. We measure revolution intensity using the spacial variation in the number of deaths during the revolution from the Statistical Database of the Egyptian Revolution Wikithawra and combine it with data on migration intentions from the Harmonized Survey of Young People in Egypt (HSYPE). Difference-in-difference estimations show that the revolution significantly decreased the migration intentions of youth, especially young men. Single women did not change their migration intentions, mainly due to their financial dependence. Results also show that the youth living in informal slum areas experienced stronger effects. We describe two opposing channels: the insecurity channel, which positively affects migration intentions, and the optimism channel, which negatively affects migration intentions by inducing hope in a better Egyptian future. Youth in rural and slum areas were more sensitive to the optimism channel, due to their higher threshold of insecurity perception. |
| Keywords: | political instability, migration, Egypt, revolution |
| JEL: | D74 F22 O15 P16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9237&r= |
| By: | Petropoulou, Maria; Salanti, Georgia; Rücker, Gerta; Schwarzer, Guido; Moustaki, Irini; Mavridis, Dimitris |
| Abstract: | In a quantitative synthesis of studies via meta-analysis, it is possible that some studies provide a markedly different relative treatment effect or have a large impact on the summary estimate and/or heterogeneity. Extreme study effects (outliers) can be detected visually with forest/funnel plots and by using statistical outlying detection methods. A forward search (FS) algorithm is a common outlying diagnostic tool recently extended to meta-analysis. FS starts by fitting the assumed model to a subset of the data which is gradually incremented by adding the remaining studies according to their closeness to the postulated data-generating model. At each step of the algorithm, parameter estimates, measures of fit (residuals, likelihood contributions), and test statistics are being monitored and their sharp changes are used as an indication for outliers. In this article, we extend the FS algorithm to network meta-analysis (NMA). In NMA, visualization of outliers is more challenging due to the multivariate nature of the data and the fact that studies contribute both directly and indirectly to the network estimates. Outliers are expected to contribute not only to heterogeneity but also to inconsistency, compromising the NMA results. The FS algorithm was applied to real and artificial networks of interventions that include outliers. We developed an R package (NMAoutlier) to allow replication and dissemination of the proposed method. We conclude that the FS algorithm is a visual diagnostic tool that helps to identify studies that are a potential source of heterogeneity and inconsistency. |
| Keywords: | forward search; Cook’s distance; NMAoutlier; outliers; network meta-analysis |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110954&r= |
| By: | Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School); Xu, Yongdeng (Cardiff Business School); Dong, Xue (Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | We carry out an indirect inference test of two versions of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of world trade. One of these, the ‘classical’ model, is well-known as the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model of world trade, in which countries trade homogeneous products in world markets and produce according to their comparative advantage as determined by their resource endowments. The other, the ‘gravity’ model, assumes products are differentiated by geographical origin, so that trade is determined largely by demand and relative prices differing according to distance; trade in turn affects productivity through technology transfer. These two CGE models of world trade behave in very different ways and predict quite different effects for trade policy, underlining the importance of discovering which best fits the facts of international trade. Our findings here are that the classical model fits these facts fairly well in general, while the gravity model is largely strongly rejected by them. |
| Keywords: | Bootstrap, indirect inference, gravity model, classical trade model, trade |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/20&r= |
| By: | Advani, Arun (University of Warwick, CAGE, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and the LSE International Inequalities Institute (III)); Tarrant, Hannah (London School of Economics III) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we review the existing empirical evidence on how individuals respond to the incentives created by a net wealth tax. Variation in the overall magnitude of behavioural responses is substantial: estimates of the elasticity of taxable wealth vary by a factor of 800. We explore three key reasons for this variation: tax design, context, and methodology. We then discuss what is known about the importance of individual margins of response and how these interact with policy choices. Finally, we use our analysis to systematically narrow down and reconcile the range of elasticity estimates. We argue that a well-designed wealth tax would reduce the tax base by 7-17% if levied at a tax rate of 1%. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1368&r= |
| By: | Hory Marie Pierre,; Levieuge Grégory,; Onori Daria. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we demonstrate that the size of the fiscal multiplier depends both on currency mismatch and home bias. Our demonstration is based on a real two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with incomplete and imperfect international financial markets, external debt and financial frictions. We show that if home bias is high, the terms of trade improve following a fiscal stimulus. This reduces the private real debt burden denominated in foreign currency, decreases the external finance premium born by firms, and stimulates investment. Thus, the larger the proportion of firms' debt denominated in foreign currency is, the higher the fiscal multiplier. In contrast, the terms of trade deteriorate when home bias is low. This increases the real debt burden and the external finance premium. Hence, in this case, the fiscal multiplier decreases as the share of firms' debt denominated in foreign currency increases. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Multiplier, Terms of Trade, Currency Mismatch, DSGE Model, Financial Frictions. |
| JEL: | E62 F34 F41 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:813&r= |
| By: | Vuong, Quan-Hoang; Ho, Manh-Toan (Thanh Tay University Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | Vietnam is a fast-growing economy with a population of more than 100 million people. Along with the stable development of the country’s economy, a mindset focusing on making money is also growing in Vietnam. Nonetheless, there has been a noticeable lack of formal education in economics for young people, especially in high school curriculum. Thus, this paper provides a quick look at the issue from the perspective of influential journal articles and books on Vietnam economy. Currently, as the high school curriculum does not include economics, the high school students do not have a formal source of information. Even when they can easily find documents on the Internet, the quick survey suggested a scarcity of trustworthy documents for students. The findings suggest that economics education in Vietnam is currently behind the economic development of the country. |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zk7bq&r= |
| By: | Grupo de Estudios Fiscales y de Equidad; Grupo Contod@s; Centro de Pensamiento de Política Fiscal |
| Abstract: | Con el impacto de la implementación de las políticas contenidas en el proyecto de reforma tributaria Proyecto de inversión social en las condiciones de vida de los colombianos, surge la necesidad de analizar las implicaciones. En consecuencia, el presente documento revisa al detalle el proyecto de ley con un enfoque interseccional e interdisciplinario y presenta ciertas disposiciones deseables para un sistema progresivo y justo que podrían haber sido incluidas. *** From the impact of the implementation of the policies contained in the tax reform project Proyecto de Inversión Social on the living conditions of Colombians, the need to analyze the implications arise. Consequently, this document reviews the project in detail, with an intersectional and interdisciplinary approach and presents certain desirable provisions for a progressive and fair system that could have been included. |
| Keywords: | reforma tributaria, recuperación económica, progresividad |
| JEL: | E62 H25 H26 H50 |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000176:019456&r= |
| By: | Dolan, Paul; Kavetsos, Georgios; Krekel, Christian; Mavridis, Dimitris; Metcalfe, Robert; Senik, Claudia; Szymanski, Stefan; Ziebarth, Nicolas R. |
| Abstract: | Hosting the Olympic Games costs billions of taxpayer dollars. Following a quasi-experimental setting, this paper assesses the intangible impact of the London 2012 Olympics, using a novel panel of 26,000 residents in London, Paris, and Berlin during the summers of 2011, 2012, and 2013. We show that hosting the Olympics increases subjective well-being of the host city's residents during the event, particularly around the times of the opening and closing ceremonies. However, we do not find much evidence for legacy effects. Estimating residents' implicit willingness-to-pay for the event, we do not find that it was worth it for London alone, but a modest well-being impact on the rest of the country would make hosting worth the costs. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well-being; Life satisfaction; Happiness; Intangible effects; Olympic Games; Sport events; Quasi-natural experiment |
| JEL: | I30 I31 I38 L83 |
| Date: | 2019–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101387&r= |
| By: | Advani, Arun (University of Warwick, CAGE, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and the LSE International Inequalities Institute (III)); Bangham, George (Resolution Foundation); Leslie, Jack (Resolution Foundation) |
| Abstract: | We show that wealth inequality in the UK is high and has increased slightly over the past decade as financial asset prices increased in the wake of the financial crisis. But data deficiencies are a major barrier in understanding the true distribution, composition and size of household wealth. The most comprehensive survey of household wealth in the UK does a good job of capturing the vast majority of the wealth distribution, but that nearly £800 billion of wealth held by the very wealthiest UK households is missing. We also find tentative evidence that survey measures of high-wealth families undervalue their assets – our central estimate of the true value of wealth held by households in the UK is 5% higher than the survey data suggests. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1367&r= |
| By: | von Grafenstein, Liza (University of Göttingen); Kumar, Abhijeet (University of Göttingen); Kumar, Santosh (Sam Houston State University); Vollmer, Sebastian (University of Goettingen) |
| Abstract: | Long-term follow-up of early childhood health interventions is important for human capital accumulation. We provide experimental evidence on child health and human capital outcomes from the longer-term follow-up of a school-based nutrition intervention in India. Using panel data, we examine the effectiveness of the use of iron and iodine fortified salt in school lunches to reduce anemia among school children. After four years of treatment, treated children, on average, have higher hemoglobin levels and a lower likelihood of anemia relative to the control group. Interestingly, the intervention did not have any impact on cognitive and educational outcomes. |
| Keywords: | anemia, children, double-fortified salt, cognition, mid-day meal, India |
| JEL: | C93 I15 I18 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14627&r= |
| By: | Takeshi Kato; Yoshinori Hiroi |
| Abstract: | How can we limit wealth disparities while stimulating economic flows in sustainable societies? To examine the link between these concepts, we propose an econophysics asset exchange model with the surplus stock of the wealthy. The wealthy are one of the two exchange agents and have more assets than the poor. Our simulation model converts the surplus contribution rate of the wealthy to a new variable parameter alongside the saving rate and introduces the total exchange (flow) and rank correlation coefficient (metabolism) as new evaluation indexes, adding to the Gini index (disparities), thereby assessing both wealth distribution and the relationships among the disparities, flow, and metabolism. We show that these result in a gamma-like wealth distribution, and our model reveals a trade-off between limiting disparities and vitalizing the market. To limit disparities and increase flow and metabolism, we also find the need to restrain savings and use the wealthy surplus stock. This relationship is explicitly expressed in the new equation introduced herein. The insights gained by uncovering the root of disparities may present a persuasive case for investments in social security measures or social businesses involving stock redistribution or sharing. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07888&r= |
| By: | Epaulard Anne,; Zapha Chloé. |
| Abstract: | A European directive requires Member States to give firms access to preventive restructuring procedures. This paper assesses the interest of a procedure distinct from that for insolvent firms. It is based on the French experience, where a preventive procedure has coexisted with the more common restructuring procedure since 2006. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the Commercial Courts' decisions allows the identification of the causal impact of the conversion from the preventive procedure to the common one on the firm's survival chances. Using an (almost) exhaustive sample of preventive bankruptcy fillings over 2010-2016, we show that conversion reduces the probability of firm survival by 50 p.p., which corresponds to indirect bankruptcy costs of around 20% of the firm assets. Our interpretation is that the low restructuring rate under the common bankruptcy procedure may alarm some of the firm's stakeholders, especially its customers. This in turn aggravates the firm's difficulties and reduces its chances of restructuring under the common procedure. We provide some empirical evidence to support this interpretation. A distinct preventive procedure helps prevent this spiral. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Bankruptcy; Costs of Bankruptcy; Law and Economics; Preventive Restructuring. |
| JEL: | G33 K22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:810&r= |
| By: | Senjaya, Asep Arifin; Sirat, Ni Made; Wirata, I Nyoman; Ratmini, Ni Ketut |
| Abstract: | Dental healthcare is very important since dental and oral hygiene should be maintained. Statistics showed that more than 80% of children in developed and developing countries suffer from dental disease. This study aimed to see the safety of OHIS (Oral Hygiene Index Simplified) in primary school students who got and did not get little dentist cadre training in Bangli Regency in 2019. The study was done in an experimental design: pre and post-test with control design, which was conducted in August-September 2019. The sample in this study is 366 students. The difference in OHIS scores before and after treatment in the control group and treatment group was carried out by the bivariate Mann Whitney U Test. The results of the study showed that before dental health training was conducted, there were 54.3% of primary school students in the treatment group with good OHIS score criteria, and after the training was carried out as many as 98.4% of the students in the treatment group had a good OHIS. Additionally, prior to the training, 57.5% of the control group had fair OHIS criteria score. Then, after the training was carried out, 73.7% of the control group had good OHIS score. Hence, the study concluded that there was a significant difference in the OHIS of primary school students who got little doctor training prior to and after the training. Also, there was a significant difference in the OHIS of the students who did not get such treatment before and after the training. |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:uxbks&r= |
| By: | Marie-Laure Allain (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Claire Chambolle (ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrick Rey (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sabrina Teyssier (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | In a vertical chain in which two rivals invest before contracting with one of two competing suppliers, vertical integration can create holdup problems for the rival. We develop an experiment to test this theoretical prediction in a setup in which suppliers can either precommit ex ante to being greedy or degrade ex post the input they provide to their customer. Our experimental results confirm that vertical integration creates holdup problems. However, vertical integration also generates more departures from theory, which can be explained by bounded rationality and social preferences. |
| Keywords: | Vertical integration,Hold-up,Experimental economics,Bounded rationality,Social preferences |
| Date: | 2021–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03283879&r= |
| By: | Misuraca, Francesco |
| Abstract: | A very respectable theory (K.R. Popper) argues that civilization tends to limit the use of violence and opposes a state of chaos, madness, barbarism and war. It is a philosophical theory that in its empirical validity can find a minimum (not exclusive) support from a triad of arguments. In fact, by limiting the concept of civilization to that field that we can call "law and legal justice", we can have, in this case, three arguments, to argue that law actually tends to limit the use of violence, without being based exclusively on the force (and violence) of the sanction: (i) A philosophical-juridical argument, the theory of “international regimes; (ii) A sociological one, the theory of companies such as "Small World Networks" and (iii) A mathematical one, the theory of deterministic chaos applied to the phenomenon of sanction (also definable as coercive force, deterrence or even "just war"). |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:k9auc&r= |
| By: | Li, Jianghong; Lair, Hannah Kenyon; Schäfer, Jakob; Kendall, Garth |
| Abstract: | Increasing evidence shows that parents’ work schedules in evenings/nights have a negative impact on children's physical and mental health. Few studies examine adolescents and joint parental work schedules. We investigate the association between joint parental work schedules and adolescent mental health and test parental time spent with adolescents and parenting style as potential mediators. We analysed one wave of the Raine Study data, focusing on adolescents who were followed up at ages 16-17 and lived in dual-earner households (N=607). Adolescent mental health is measured in the Child Behavioural Checklist (morbidity, internalising behaviour, externalising behaviour, anxiety/depression). Parental work schedules were defined as: both parents work standard daytime schedules (reference), both parents work evening/night/irregular shifts, fathers work evening/night/irregular shifts - mother daytime schedule, mothers work evening/night/irregular shifts - father daytime schedule. Compared to the reference group, when one or both parents worked evening/night/irregular schedules, there was a significant increase in total morbidity, externalising behaviour and anxiety/depression in adolescents. Fathers' evening/night/irregular schedule was associated with a significant increase in total morbidity and externalising behaviour. Inconsistent parenting partially mediated this association. Mothers' evening/night/irregular schedule was not associated with adolescent CBCL scores. Our findings underscore the importance of fathers' work-family balance for adolescent mental health. |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pa7hz&r= |
| By: | Siena Daniele,; Zago Riccardo. |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the change in the occupational composition of the labor market in favour of non-routine jobs -i.e. job polarization- flattens the price Phillips Curve (PC). Using data from the European Monetary Union and exploiting the fact that job polarization accelerates during recessions, we obtain two results. First, countries experiencing a bigger shift in the occupational structure during a downturn exhibit a flatter PC afterward. Second, the occupational shifts experienced during the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis explain up to a forth of the flattening of the curve in the 2002-2018 period. We reconcile this evidence through a New Keynesian model with unemployment and search and matching frictions. Heterogeneity in the fluidity across segments of the labor market -i.e. differences in the separation and hiring rate across jobs- is the source of PC flattening. |
| Keywords: | Phillips Curve, Job Polarization, Occupational Composition, Monetary Policy,Labor Market Fluidity. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 J21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:819&r= |
| By: | Amadou Barry; Karim Oualkacha; Arthur Charpentier |
| Abstract: | The fixed-effects model estimates the regressor effects on the mean of the response, which is inadequate to summarize the variable relationships in the presence of heteroscedasticity. In this paper, we adapt the asymmetric least squares (expectile) regression to the fixed-effects model and propose a new model: expectile regression with fixed-effects $(\ERFE).$ The $\ERFE$ model applies the within transformation strategy to concentrate out the incidental parameter and estimates the regressor effects on the expectiles of the response distribution. The $\ERFE$ model captures the data heteroscedasticity and eliminates any bias resulting from the correlation between the regressors and the omitted factors. We derive the asymptotic properties of the $\ERFE$ estimators and suggest robust estimators of its covariance matrix. Our simulations show that the $\ERFE$ estimator is unbiased and outperforms its competitors. Our real data analysis shows its ability to capture data heteroscedasticity (see our R package, \url{github.com/AmBarry/erfe}). |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04737&r= |
| By: | Michael L. Anderson; Lucas W. Davis |
| Abstract: | Previous studies of the effect of ridesharing on traffic fatalities have yielded inconsistent, often contradictory conclusions. In this paper we revisit this question using proprietary data from Uber measuring monthly rideshare activity at the Census tract level. Most previous studies are based on publicly-available information about Uber entry dates into US cities, but we show that an indicator variable for whether Uber is available is a poor measure of rideshare activity — for example, it explains less than 3% of the tract-level variation in ridesharing, reflecting the enormous amount of variation both within and across cities. Using entry we find inconsistent and statistically insignificant estimates. However, when we use the more detailed proprietary data, we find a robust negative impact of ridesharing on traffic fatalities. Impacts concentrate during nights and weekends and are robust across a range of alternative specifications. Overall, our results imply that ridesharing has decreased US alcohol-related traffic fatalities by 6.1% and reduced total US traffic fatalities by 4.0%. Based on conventional estimates of the value of statistical life the annual life-saving benefits range from $2.3 to $5.4 billion. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that these benefits may be of similar magnitude to producer surplus captured by Uber shareholders or consumer surplus captured by Uber riders. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 R41 R49 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29071&r= |
| By: | Yassine Boussenna (UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"-) |
| Abstract: | In a knowledge-based economy, and a context of fierce international competition that spares no field. universities as organizations highly dependent on knowledge should pay special attention to it and its management, in such a way that the effective management of this asset is a key factor in building a competitive advantage and became the cornerstone of efforts to improve the performance of the university. In addition, it has long been demonstrated that better knowledge management has a positive impact on organizational performance. However, it is not yet clear how this process is to be achieved in academia and particularly in developing countries such as Morocco. On the other hand, and throughout the literature, several factors affect positively KM initiatives in public organizations and more specifically in universities are discussed. Some of these are the same as those found for private organizations and others are specific to public organizations. Most authors cite the organizational structure. This work has the main objective to verify the moderating role of organizational structure on the intensity of the relationship between the application of knowledge management and organizational performance of Abdelmalek Essaadi University. by collecting the views of the Abdelmalek Essaadi University teacher-researchers, through a hypotheticodeductive reasoning approach and a quantitative working method. Our questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of 88 teacher-researchers from the different institutions of the university under study. The results obtained prove the moderating and positive role of organizational structure, on the intensity of the relationship between the application of the K.M and (Training, research, publication, and governance) as indicators of organizational performance with a degree of impact of 1.1%. |
| Abstract: | Dans une économie fondée sur la connaissance, et dans un contexte de concurrence internationale féroce qui n'épargne aucun domaine, les universités, en tant qu'organisations fortement dépendantes de la connaissance, devraient accorder une attention particulière à celle-ci et à sa gestion, de telle sorte que la gestion efficace de cet actif soit un facteur clé dans la construction d'un avantage concurrentiel et devienne la pierre angulaire des efforts pour améliorer la performance de l'université. En outre, il a été démontré depuis longtemps qu'une meilleure gestion des connaissances a un impact positif sur les performances organisationnelles. Cependant, la manière de réaliser ce processus n'est pas encore claire dans le milieu universitaire et particulièrement dans les pays en développement comme le Maroc. D'autre part, et à travers la littérature, plusieurs facteurs affectant positivement les initiatives de GC dans les organisations publiques et plus spécifiquement dans les universités sont discutés. Certains de ces facteurs sont les mêmes que ceux que l'on retrouve pour les organisations privées et d'autres sont spécifiques aux organisations publiques. La plupart des auteurs citent la structure organisationnelle. Ce travail a pour objectif principal de vérifier le rôle modérateur de la structure organisationnelle sur l'intensité de la relation entre l'application de la gestion des connaissances et la performance organisationnelle de l'université Abdelmalek Essaadi. en recueillant les points de vue des enseignants-chercheurs de l'université Abdelmalek Essaadi, à travers une approche de raisonnement hypothético-déductive et une méthode de travail quantitative. Notre questionnaire a été administré à un échantillon représentatif de 88 enseignants-chercheurs des différentes institutions de l'université étudiée. Les résultats obtenus prouvent le rôle modérateur et positif de la structure organisationnelle, sur l'intensité de la relation entre l'application du K.M et (Formation, recherche, publication, et gouvernance) comme indicateurs de la performance organisationnelle avec un degré d'impact de 1,1%. |
| Keywords: | organizational structure,knowledge management,academic performance,Moroccan universities |
| Date: | 2021–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03274091&r= |
| By: | Yonatan Berman; Mark Kirstein |
| Abstract: | An important but understudied question in economics is how people choose when facing uncertainty in the timing of events. Here we study preferences over time lotteries, in which the payment amount is certain but the payment time is uncertain. Expected discounted utility theory (EDUT) predicts decision makers to be risk-seeking over time lotteries. We explore a normative model of growth-optimality, in which decision makers maximise the long-term growth rate of their wealth. Revisiting experimental evidence on time lotteries, we find that growth-optimality accords better with the evidence than EDUT. We outline future experiments to scrutinise further the plausibility of growth-optimality. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.08366&r= |
| By: | Heloise Agreli Fernandes (emlyon business school); Ruthanne Huising; Marina Peduzzi |
| Abstract: | New technologies including digital health and robotics are driving the evolution of healthcare. At the same time, healthcare systems are transitioning from a multiprofessional model approach of healthcare delivery to an interprofessional model. The concurrence of these two trends may represent an opportunity for leaders in healthcare because both require renegotiation of the complex division of work and enhanced interdependency. This review examines how the introduction of new technologies alters the role boundaries of occupations and interdependencies among health occupations. Based on a scoping review of ethnographic studies of technology implementation in a variety of contexts (from primary care to operating room) and of diverse technologies (from health informatics systems to robotics), we develop the concept of role reconfiguration to capture simultaneous adjustments of multiple, interdependent roles during technological change. Ethnographic and qualitative studies provide rich, detailed accounts of what people actually do and how their work and role is changed (or not) when a new technology arrives. Through a synthesis of these studies, we develop a typology of four types of role reconfiguration: negotiation, clarification, enlargement and restriction. We discuss leadership challenges in managing role reconfiguration and formulate four leadership priorities. We suggest that leaders: redesign roles proactively, paying attention to interdependencies; offer opportunities for collective learning about new technologies; ensure that knowledge of new technologies is distributed across roles and prepare to address resistance. |
| Keywords: | Technology,Leadership |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03278865&r= |
| By: | Mridu Prabal Goswami; Manipushpak Mitra; Debapriya Sen |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes lexicographic preferences over alternatives that are identified by a finite number of attributes. Our characterization is based on two key concepts: a weaker notion of continuity called 'mild continuity' (strict preference order between any two alternatives that are different with respect to every attribute is preserved around their small neighborhoods) and an 'unhappy set' (any alternative outside such a set is preferred to all alternatives inside). Three key aspects of our characterization are: (i) use of continuity arguments, (ii) the stepwise approach of looking at two attributes at a time and (iii) in contrast with the previous literature, we do not impose noncompensation on the preference and consider an alternative weaker condition. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03280&r= |
| By: | Yedavalli, Pavan; Burak Onat, Emin; Peng, Xi; Sengupta, Raja; Waddell, Paul; Bulusu, Vishwanath; Xue, Min |
| Abstract: | Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network?, and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, we develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) MANTA: A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: A granular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian, (3) 퐹퐸3 : A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their exact movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool. As a result, stakeholders in UAM can understand the impacts of critical infrastructure, and subsequently define policies, requirements, and investments needed to support UAM as a viable transportation mode. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5709d8vr&r= |
| By: | Vadim Elenev; Tim Landvoigt; Patrick J. Shultz; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
| Abstract: | Governments around the world have gone on a massive fiscal expansion in response to the Covid crisis, increasing government debt to levels not seen in 75 years. How will this debt be repaid? What role do conventional and unconventional monetary policy play? We investigate debt sustainability in a New Keynesian model with an intermediary sector, realistic fiscal and monetary policy, endogenous convenience yields, and substantial risk premia. When conventional monetary policy is constrained by the ZLB during an economic crisis, increased government spending and lower tax revenue lead to a large rise in government debt and raise the risk of future tax increases. We find that quantitative easing (QE), forward guidance, and an expansion in government discretionary spending all contribute to lowering debt/GDP ratio and reducing this fiscal risk. A transitory QE policy deployed during a crisis stimulates aggregate demand. |
| JEL: | E1 E12 E13 E2 E31 E32 E37 E4 E42 E43 E44 E6 E62 E63 G12 G18 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29129&r= |
| By: | Tal Gross; Adam Sacarny; Maggie Shi; David Silver |
| Abstract: | We study a 2008 policy reform in which Medicare revised its hospital payment system to better reflect patients’ severity of illness. We construct a simulated instrument that predicts a hospital’s policy-induced change in reimbursement using pre-reform patients and post-reform rules. The reform led to large persistent changes in Medicare payment rates across hospitals. Hospitals that faced larger gains in Medicare reimbursement increased the volume of Medicare patients they treated. The estimates imply a volume elasticity of approximately unity. To accommodate greater volume, hospitals increased nurse employment, but also lowered length of stay, with ambiguous effects on quality. |
| JEL: | I18 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29023&r= |
| By: | NAUSHEEN, NIZAMI |
| Abstract: | Workers are the backbone of an industry as well as an economy. Accelerating growth requires ensuring, understanding and managing life of workers when they are at work. This paper analyses the meaning and importance of safe work in Information Technology industry where work is rendered in apparently safe environment. IT industry has been chosen as it apparently offers highly remunerative packages but compromises on some of the essentials of decent work. One of the dimensions of decent work is safe work. In this paper, work safety has been measured on the basis of rudimentary statistical tools and non-parametric tests. Primary data collected from 272 IT employees by using snowball sampling technique and a well-designed questionnaire have been used for developing Safe work Index (SWI) on the lines of decent work agenda of the International Labour Office. Findings reveal deficit of safe work in IT companies and deteriorating health status of IT employees which has implications for the social health of the nation. The nature of work in IT industry which requires longer hours at work, constant sitting posture and working on computer screens has started playing havoc among the employees of younger age group and calls for attention for provision of decent ergonomic furniture and timely breaks from a sitting posture. The paper concludes with suggestive measures for the same. |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:24ea3&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article presents the “Stra.Tech.Man approach” (strategy-technology-management synthesis) as the basis for creating a “Stra.Tech.Man Scorecard,” which can be used for the strategic audit of every socio-economic organization. After reviewing the literature on strategic control and strategic audit, the study proceeds with a critical appraisal of Kaplan and Norton’s balanced scorecard model and presents the theoretical foundations of the Stra.Tech.Man approach. It composes a first conceptual outline of the Stra.Tech.Man Scorecard, which can function as an integrated monitoring tool, exploring and describing the evolution of “physiologies” of the studied socio-economic organizations (firms). It concludes that the formal balanced scorecard approach: (a) has been applied mainly to larger and more sophisticated organizations, (b) does not offer a compound understanding of the central dimensions of strategy, technology, and management that can be linked in an integrated way to the financial results, (c) leaves relatively unspecified many critical aspects of a firm’s choices, especially in strategy articulation, technology selection, and management implementation, (d) does not create complete profiles for the firms’ evolutionary physiologies. In contrast, the Stra.Tech.Man Scorecard: (i) does not have as a prerequisite any pre-existing systematic performance measurement framework in the organization and, therefore, it is not limited by any firm size, type, or physiology, (ii) it links in an evolutionary way the “core” qualitative dimensions of strategy, technology and management (Stra.Tech.Man audit) with the quantitative financial results of the organization, (iii) it can and has been used as an integrated analysis instrument by taking into account more adequately the evolutionary dimensions of the meso-environment of organizations besides the micro-level of analysis which the balanced scorecard is primarily associated. |
| Keywords: | Balanced Scorecard; Stra.Tech.Man Approach; Stra.Tech.Man Scorecard; Strategic Control; Strategic Audit; Stra.Tech.Man Audit |
| JEL: | L10 L20 |
| Date: | 2021–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_003&r= |
| By: | Johannes Stroebel; Jeffrey Wurgler |
| Abstract: | We survey 861 finance academics, professionals, and public sector regulators and policy economists about climate finance topics. They identify regulatory risk as the top climate risk to businesses and investors over the next five years, but they view physical risks as the top risk over the next 30 years. By an overwhelming margin, respondents believe that asset prices underestimate climate risks. We also tabulate opinions about the correlation between growth and climate change; social discount rates appropriate for projects that mitigate the effects of climate change; most influential forces for reducing climate risks; and, most important research topics. |
| JEL: | G12 G14 G32 H43 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29136&r= |
| By: | Peguero, Felipe; Somarriba, Eduardo; Solano-Cordoba, Moises E.; Alvarez, Diana; Zapata, Samuel D.; Cerda B., Rolando H.; Sinclair, Fergus |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312634&r= |
| By: | Chen, Yen Tzu; Liu, Che Hung; Chen, Ho Ming |
| Abstract: | Online test websites can provide a more convenient and efficient dynamic learning approach and personalized learning services, which is one of the important approaches to digital learning. However, the usability of online test websites affects users’ learning efficacy. This study explored the impact of the usability of online test websites on users, and the results can help website operators seeking to improve the websites’ usability. Based on the relevant literature, this study synthesized three major metrics of the usability of online test websites and summarized typical work priorities of such websites to design usability test items. The study considered one online test website: A Remedial Education Institution for Learners to Take Civil Service Examination. The results show that, with respect to usability, the website still has quite a few deficiencies that affect users’ effectiveness and efficiency when using the website and cause users to be less satisfied with the website. Based on these results, this study offered four specific recommendations for improving effectiveness, efficiency, and satisfaction in terms of the usability of the online test website: enhancing interaction and instructions, following the inertia of interface use, simplifying information organization, and diversifying information content. |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:da3bx&r= |
| By: | Dirk Bergemann (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Marco Ottaviani (Department of Economics, Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | As large amounts of data become available and can be communicated more easily and processed more e¤ectively, information has come to play a central role for economic activity and welfare in our age. This essay overviews contributions to the industrial organization of information markets and nonmarkets, while attempting to maintain a balance between foundational frameworks and more recent developments. We start by reviewing mechanism-design approaches to modeling the trade of information. We then cover ratings, predictions, and recommender systems. We turn to forecasting contests, prediction markets, and other institutions designed for collecting and aggregating information from decentralized participants. Finally, we discuss science as a prototypical information nonmarket with participants who interact in a non-anonymous way to produce and disseminate information. We aim to make the reader familiar with the central notions and insights in this burgeoning literature and also point to some open critical questions that future research will have to address. |
| Keywords: | Information, Data, Data Intermediaries, Information Markets, Information Non-markets, Science |
| JEL: | D82 D83 D84 G14 L86 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2296&r= |
| By: | Martin S. Eichenbaum; Sergio Rebelo; Mathias Trabandt |
| Abstract: | We argue that the Covid epidemic disproportionately affected the economic well-being and health of poor people. To disentangle the forces that generated this outcome, we construct a model that is consistent with the heterogeneous impact of the Covid recession on low- and high-income people. According to our model, two thirds of the inequality in Covid deaths reflect pre-existing inequality in comorbidity rates and access to quality health care. The remaining third, stems from the fact that low-income people work in occupations where the risk of infection is high. Our model also implies that the rise in income inequality generated by the Covid epidemic reflects the nature of the goods that low-income people produce. Finally, we assess the health-income trade-offs associated with fiscal transfers to the poor and mandatory containment policies. |
| JEL: | E1 H0 I1 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29063&r= |
| By: | Riddell, Chris (University of Waterloo); Riddell, W. Craig (University of British Columbia, Vancouver) |
| Abstract: | The Income Maintenance Experiments have received renewed attention due to growing international interest in a Basic Income. Proponents viewed a Negative Income Tax as a replacement for traditional welfare with stronger work incentives and reduced poverty. However, existing labor supply estimates for single parents are uniformly negative. We re-assess the experimental evidence and find randomization failure in two NITs (Gary and Seattle). In Denver and Manitoba, we find a positive labor supply response for those on welfare prior to random assignment. Our results provide strong evidence that a NIT can increase work activity among single parents on welfare. |
| Keywords: | negative income tax, welfare, income maintenance experiments, labour supply |
| JEL: | C9 I38 J2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14585&r= |
| By: | Lundsgaarde, Erik |
| Abstract: | European Union (EU) funding for United Nations (UN) organisations has expanded significantly over the last two decades. The EU's partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is an important example of EU-UN cooperation, and UNDP was the fourth-largest UN recipient of European Commission funds in 2018. Against the backdrop of UN and EU reforms that aim to strengthen multilateralism and promote more integrated development cooperation approaches, this paper outlines priority areas in EU-UNDP cooperation and modes of cooperation. The term 'added value' provides an entry point for identifying the rationales for EU funding to UNDP. In EU budgetary discussions, added value is a concept used to inform decisions such as whether to take action at the EU or member state levels or which means of implementation to select. These choices extend to the development cooperation arena, where the term relates to the division of labour agenda and features in assessments of effectiveness. The paper explores three perspectives to consider the added value of funding choices within the EU-UNDP partnership relating to the division of labour between EU institutions and member states, the characteristics of UNDP as an implementation channel and the qualities of the EU as a funder. On the first dimension, the large scale of EU funding for UNDP sets it apart from most member states, though EU funding priorities display elements of specialisation as well as similar emphases to member states. On the second dimension, UNDP's large scope of work, its implementation capacities and accountability standards are attractive to the EU, but additional criteria - including organisational cost effectiveness - can alter the perception of added value. Finally, the scale of EU funding and the possibility to engage in difficult country contexts are key elements of the added value of the EU as a funder. However, the EU's non-core funding emphasis presents a challenge for the UN resource mobilisation agenda calling for greater flexibility in organisational funding. Attention to these multiple dimensions of added value can inform future EU choices on how to orient engagement with UNDP to reinforce strengths of the organisation and enable adaptations envisaged in UN reform processes. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:202021&r= |
| By: | Thierry Kamionka (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Pauline Leveneur (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | We investigate interactions between individual's position in the labor market and health status. We jointly model health, employment and working hours using a dynamic model. We estimate a dynamic multivariate model with random effects for the period going from 1991 to 2009 and using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). Instrumental variables are used. We consider interactions of the error terms of the model using a vector autoregressive process of the order 1. A shock on one component of the error term can have an impact on the distribution of the error term the next period of time. Individual effects-one for each equation-can be correlated. The model is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood estimator. We consider the initial conditions problem. We find that joint dynamics of health and employment is determined by the interactions of their past realizations as well as by the individual's socioeconomic characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Employment dynamics,Self-assessed health,Working hours,General physician visits,Panel data,IV estimation |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03307591&r= |
| By: | Majeed, Fahd; Khanna, Madhu; Miao, Ruiqing; Blanc Betes, Elena; Hudiburg, Tara; DeLucia, Evan |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty, Environmental Economics and Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312883&r= |
| By: | Nomikos, William George |
| Abstract: | This essay challenges theoretical and empirical arguments about peacebuilding effectiveness that put the state at the center of United Nations peace operations. We argue that state-centric UN peacebuilding operations inadvertently incentivize local-level violence in post-conflict zones. We demonstrate that when the UN supports central governments it unintentionally empowers non-professionalized militaries, paramilitaries, and warlords to settle local scores. Armed violence against civilians in turn triggers a vicious cycle of reprisals and counter-reprisals. As an alternative to state-centric peacebuilding operations that incentivize local violence, we suggest that the UN should shift strategic resources away from central governments and toward UN policing, support of traditional and religious authorities, and the training of local security institutions. |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8h6fs&r= |
| By: | Nomikos, William George |
| Abstract: | What explains the legitimacy of state institutions in areas of limited statehood? In order to ensure effective governance, it is critical for states with limited capacities to establish the legitimacy of state authority. Yet, the sources of institutional legitimacy are not well understood in areas of limited statehood where legitimacy is often the only mechanism for the state to ensure compliance and cooperation of citizens. This article argues that in areas of limited statehood a state’s legitimacy among the domestic population crucially depends on whether that population feels safe and secure. We test this argument with an original survey fielded with 2,000 respondents from Liberia using multilevel modelling. Our results demonstrate that security perceptions of the population play a key role in strengthening state legitimacy at both the community and county level. We also find that explicit attribution of security to specific institutions is key for linking more effective governance with more legitimacy. However, security alone is not enough to acquire state legitimacy. Our analysis also reveals that states gain legitimacy when locals perceive institutions as just and elections as free and fair in addition to feeling secure. The results demonstrate that the sources of state legitimacy are multifaceted and that the provision of security is an important component thereof. Thereby, our study speaks to lates theoretical debates on the various sources of state legitimacy and contributes novel empirical evidence. |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hd28z&r= |
| By: | Berliner, Daniel; Ingrams, Alex; Piotrowski, Suzanne |
| Abstract: | How does membership in transnational multistakeholder institutions shape states’ domestic governance? We complement traditional compliance-based approaches with a process model, focusing on the independent effects of processes associated with institutional membership, separate from commitments and compliance themselves. These effects can be driven by iterative and participatory institutional features, which are increasingly prevalent in global governance. We apply this model to the Open Government Partnership (OGP), a transnational multistakeholder initiative with nearly 80 member countries, featuring highly flexible commitments and weak enforcement. Although commitments and compliance have generally been limited, a compliance-focused approach alone cannot account for myriad other consequences globally and domestically, driven by the iterative and participatory features associated with membership. We demonstrate these at work in a case study of Mexico’s OGP membership, which contributed to the spread of new norms and policy models, new political resources and opportunities for reformers, and new linkages and coalitions. |
| Keywords: | Internal OA fund |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111060&r= |
| By: | Paul Lavery; José María Serena Garralda; Marina-Eliza Spaliara |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of private equity buyouts on the export activity of target firms. We exploit data on UK firms over the 2004-2017 period, and use difference-in-differences estimations on matched target versus non-target firms. Following private equity buyouts, non-exporting firms are more likely to begin exporting, and target firms are likewise more likely to increase their value of exports and their export intensity. Evidence from split-sample analysis further suggests that these patterns are consistent with private equity investors relaxing financial constraints and inducing productivity improvements. |
| Keywords: | private equity buyouts, exporting, financial constraints, transactions |
| JEL: | G34 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:961&r= |
| By: | Sterkens, Philippe (Ghent University); Caers, Ralf (KU Leuven); De Couck, Marijke (Free University of Brussels); Geamanu, Michael (Ghent University); Van Driessche, Victor (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | Earlier research has associated spelling errors in resumes with reduced hiring chances. However, the analysis of hiring penalties due to spelling errors has thus far been restricted to white-collar occupations and relatively high numbers of errors per resume. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying the spelling error penalty have remained unclear. To fill these gaps in the peerreviewed literature, we conducted a scenario experiment with 445 genuine recruiters. Results show that, compared to error-free resumes, hiring penalties are being inflicted for both error-laden resumes (18.5 percent points lower interview probability) and resumes with fewer errors (7.3 percent points lower interview probability). Furthermore, we find substantial heterogeneity in penalties inflicted based on various applicant, job and participant characteristics. About half of the spelling error penalty can be explained by the perception that applicants who make spelling errors have lower interpersonal skills (9.0%), conscientiousness (12.1%) and mental abilities (32.2%). |
| Keywords: | resumes, signalling, hiring experiments, spelling errors |
| JEL: | C91 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14614&r= |
| By: | Berthou Antoine,; Mayer Thierry,; Mésonnier Jean-Stéphane. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that exporters react more strongly to a cut in tariffs by a distant country when their banks have already been specializing in funding exports to this country. To make our case, we build upon a theoretical model where an informational advantage provided by the exporter's bank results in a lower distribution cost in the destination country. We test the implications of this model for French exporters using the 2011 free trade agreement between the European Union and South-Korea as a quasi-natural experiment. We measure a bank's specialization in Korea using granular information on bank-firm credit lines and firm-level exports in the years preceding the agreement. We assess how customers of different banks react to this trade liberalization episode using detailed information on the bilateral tariff cuts and disaggregated data on French export flows at the firm-product level. We find robust evidence that the specialized lenders help exporters to respond more strongly to changes in tariffs. The effect is strong for all firms along the extensive margin, but only for less productive exporters along the intensive margin. |
| Keywords: | Trade Elasticities, Bank Specialization, Trade Liberalization. |
| JEL: | F14 G21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:814&r= |
| By: | Punzo Chiara,; Rossi Lorenza |
| Abstract: | We analyse the redistribution channel of a money-financed versus debt-financed fiscal stimulus in a Borrower-Saver frammework. The redistribution channel is larger when we consider a money-financed fiscal stimulus. However, it generates also larger welfare losses than a debt-financed fiscal stimulus, particularly in a borrower-saver framework due to the additional presence of the consumption gap with respect to a representative agent model. |
| Keywords: | Borrowers-Savers; Fiscal Stimuli; Welfare; Fiscal Multipliers |
| JEL: | E3 E5 E62 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:818&r= |
| By: | Anjali Adukia; Alex Eble; Emileigh Harrison; Hakizumwami Birali Runesha; Teodora Szasz |
| Abstract: | Books shape how children learn about society and social norms, in part through the representation of different characters. To better understand the messages children encounter in books, we introduce new artificial intelligence methods for systematically converting images into data. We apply these image tools, along with established text analysis methods, to measure the representation of race, gender, and age in children’s books commonly found in US schools and homes over the last century. We find that more characters with darker skin color appear over time, but "mainstream" award-winning books, which are twice as likely to be checked out from libraries, persistently depict more lighter-skinned characters even after conditioning on perceived race. Across all books, children are depicted with lighter skin than adults. Over time, females are increasingly present but are more represented in images than in text, suggesting greater symbolic inclusion in pictures than substantive inclusion in stories. Relative to their growing share of the US population, Black and Latinx people are underrepresented in the mainstream collection; males, particularly White males, are persistently overrepresented. Our data provide a view into the "black box" of education through children’s books in US schools and homes, highlighting what has changed and what has endured. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J15 J16 Z1 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29123&r= |
| By: | Todd Honeycutt; Kara Contreary; Gina Livermore |
| Abstract: | This report offers a deep dive into the 12 papers developed for the SSI Youth Solutions project. It presents and contrasts their characteristics, potential strengths and limitations, and other factors that might guide policymakers, advocates, and other stakeholders in deciding which might be best to pursue. |
| Keywords: | Supplemental Security Income, youth with disabilities, employment, program and policy interventions |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:562f8191ae6a4705b5028b47399519f7&r= |
| By: | Catherine Locatelli (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Analyse de l'émergence d'une confrontation Etats-Unis-Russie sur le marché européen et asiatique en matière de gaz naturel |
| Date: | 2021–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03279185&r= |
| By: | Fix, Blair (York University) |
| Abstract: | For more than a century, political economists have sought to understand the nature of capital. The prevailing wisdom is that there must be something ‘real’ — some productive capacity — that underpins capitalized values. This thinking, I argue, is a mistake. Building on Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler’s theory of capital as power, I argue that capitalization is an ideology. It is a quantitative ritual for converting earnings into present value. Although the ritual is arbitrary, it gives rise to astonishing empirical regularities, reviewed here. |
| Date: | 2021–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cf5xv&r= |
| By: | Pluess, Karen; Sutcliffe, Katy |
| Abstract: | There are increasing calls to re-establish the role and responsibility of banks towards society to repair trust and enhance financial stability. Through in-depth interviews with senior investment bankers, this study asks what bankers themselves think about the corporate (i.e. the industry’s core business), social (i.e. its moral responsibilities to wider society), and employee (i.e. bankers’ own feelings of purposefulness) purposes of the investment banking industry. Existing research tells us that there are significant reciprocal benefits to organisations, employees, and society at large when the three are aligned. The study’s findings suggest that while there have been important shifts in corporate and social purposes over time, bankers remain sceptical about their banks’ underlying motives and this has resulted in multiple disconnects. Perhaps surprising, the study finds that meaningful work that is also socially focused is something that investment bankers are seeking in some way. These insights should prompt banks to ensure that social purposes reflect and align with their corporate purposes; to move beyond rhetoric and virtue-signalling to action; and to help employees identify their contribution to it all. |
| Date: | 2021–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:uwejb&r= |
| By: | David Hao Zhang; Paul S. Willen |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the assessment of racial discrimination in mortgage pricing, we introduce a new methodology for comparing the menus of options borrowers face based on their choices. First, we show how standard regression-based approaches for assessing discrimination in the menus context can lead to misleading and contradictory results. Second, we propose a new methodology that is robust these problems based on relatively weak economic assumptions. More specifically, we use pairwise dominance relationships in choices supplemented by restrictions on the range of plausible menus to define (1) a test statistic for equality in menus and (2) a difference in menus (DIM) metric for assessing whether one group of borrowers would prefer to switch to another group's menus. Our statistics are robust to arbitrary heterogeneity in borrower preferences across racial groups, are sharp in terms of identification, and can be efficiently computed using Optimal Transport methods. Third, we devise a new approach for inference on the value of Optimal Transport problems based on directional differentiation. Fourth, we use our methodology to estimate mortgage pricing differentials by race on a novel data set linking 2018--2019 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to Optimal Blue rate locks. We find robust evidence for mortgage pricing differentials by race, particularly among Conforming mortgage borrowers who are relatively creditworthy. |
| JEL: | C12 G21 G51 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29142&r= |
| By: | George Abuselidze; Rusudan Zoidze |
| Abstract: | In the research there is reviewed the peculiarities of the formation of tax revenues of the state budget, analysis of the recent past and present periods of tax system in Georgia, there is reviewed the influence of existing factors on the revenues, as well as the role and the place of direct and indirect taxes in the state budget revenues. In addition, the measures of stimulating action on formation of tax revenues and their impact on the state budget revenues are established. At the final stage, there are examples of foreign developed countries, where the tax system is perfectly developed, where various stimulating measures are successfully stimulating and consequently it promotes mobilization of the amount of money required in the state budget. The exchange of foreign experience is very important for Georgia, the existing tax model that is based on foreign experience is greatly successful. For the formation of tax policy, it is necessary to take into consideration all the factors affecting on it, a complex analysis of the tax system and the steps that will be really useful and perspective for our country. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03027&r= |
| By: | Rui (Aruhan) Shi |
| Abstract: | This exercise offers an innovative learning mechanism to model economic agent’s decision-making process using a deep reinforcement learning algorithm. In particular, this AI agent is born in an economic environment with no information on the underlying economic structure and its own preference. I model how the AI agent learns from square one in terms of how it collects and processes information. It is able to learn in real time through constantly interacting with the environment and adjusting its actions accordingly (i.e., online learning). I illustrate that the economic agent under deep reinforcement learning is adaptive to changes in a given environment in real time. AI agents differ in their ways of collecting and processing information, and this leads to different learning behaviours and welfare distinctions. The chosen economic structure can be generalised to other decision-making processes and economic models. |
| Keywords: | expectation formation, exploration, deep reinforcement learning, bounded rationality, stochastic optimal growth |
| JEL: | C45 D83 D84 E21 E70 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9255&r= |
| By: | David R. Agrawal; Ronald B. Davies; Sara LaLumia; Nadine Riedel; Kimberley Ann Scharf |
| Abstract: | As the COVID-19 pandemic has shaped public policies and government finances, it has also influenced the topics that public finance economists are researching. Because the 2020 International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF) Congress featured papers that were submitted prior to the start of the pandemic, the Congress allows us to reflect on the state of research prior to the pandemic’s shock to both fiscal policies and our worldview. In this article, the Editors of International Tax and Public Finance (ITAX), reflect on interesting papers that were presented at this internationally representative conference in public economics. The exercise provides insight on where the field of public economics was heading prior to the pandemic and will provide a yardstick to see how the field evolves in the coming years. |
| Keywords: | public economics, public finance, taxation, expenditures |
| JEL: | H10 H20 H30 H40 H50 H60 H70 H80 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9240&r= |
| By: | Cheng, Nieyan; Li, Minghao; Liu, Pengfei; Luo, Qianfeng; Tang, Chuan; Zhang, Wendong |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312676&r= |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Magnot (LAREMA - Laboratoire Angevin de Recherche en Mathématiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UA - Université d'Angers); Jiří Mazurek; Viera Cernanova (Trnava University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate an application of a mathematically robust minimization methodthe gradient method-to the consistencization problem of a pairwise comparisons (PC) matrix. Our approach sheds new light on the notion of a priority vector and leads naturally to the definition of instant priority vectors. We describe a sample family of inconsistency indicators based on various ways of taking an average value, which extends the inconsistency indicator based on the "sup"-norm. We apply this family of inconsistency indicators both for additive and multiplicative PC matrices to show that the choice of various inconsistency indicators lead to non-equivalent consistencization procedures. |
| Keywords: | priority vector,pairwise comparisons,inconsistency indicator,gradient method |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03313878&r= |
| By: | Moshe Babaioff; Ruty Mundel; Noam Nisan |
| Abstract: | In the early $20^{th}$ century, Pigou observed that imposing a marginal cost tax on the usage of a public good induces a socially efficient level of use as an equilibrium. Unfortunately, such a "Pigouvian" tax may also induce other, socially inefficient, equilibria. We observe that this social inefficiency may be unbounded, and study whether alternative tax structures may lead to milder losses in the worst case, i.e. to a lower price of anarchy. We show that no tax structure leads to bounded losses in the worst case. However, we do find a tax scheme that has a lower price of anarchy than the Pigouvian tax, obtaining tight lower and upper bounds in terms of a crucial parameter that we identify. We generalize our results to various scenarios that each offers an alternative to the use of a public road by private cars, such as ride sharing, or using a bus or a train. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12023&r= |
| By: | Marianne Bertrand; Chang-Tai Hsieh; Nick Tsivanidis |
| Abstract: | India's Industrial Disputes Act (IDA) of 1947 requires firm with more than 100 workers to pay large costs if they shrink their employment. Since the early 2000s, large Indian manufacturing firms have increasingly relied on contract workers who are not subject to the IDA. By 2015, contract workers accounted for 38% of total employment at firms with more than 100 workers compared to 20% in 2000. Over the same time period, the thickness of the right tail of the firm size distribution in formal Indian manufacturing plants increased, the average product of labor for large firms declined, the job creation rate for large firms increased, and the probability that large firms introduce new products rose. We provide evidence that these outcomes were caused by an increased reliance on contract labor among large establishments. A model of firm growth subject to firing costs suggests the rise of contract labor increased TFP in Indian manufacturing by 7.6%, occurring all through a one-time reduction in misallocation between large and small firms with negligible change in the long-run growth rate. |
| JEL: | J23 J4 J5 O0 O4 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29151&r= |
| By: | Hope Corman; Dhaval M. Dave; Nancy Reichman; Ofira Schwartz-Soicher |
| Abstract: | This study estimated the effects of welfare reform in the 1990s, which permanently restructured and contracted the cash assistance system in the U.S., on food insecurity—a fundamental form of hardship—of the next generation of households. An implicit goal underlying welfare reform was the disruption of an assumed intergenerational transmission of disadvantage; however, little is known about the effects of welfare reform on the well-being of the next generation. Using intergenerational data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a variation on a difference-in-differences framework, this study exploits 3 sources of variation in childhood exposure to welfare reform: (1) risk of exposure across birth cohorts; (2) variation of exposure within cohorts because different states implemented welfare reform in different years; and (3) variation between individuals with the same exposure who were more likely and less likely to rely on welfare. We found that exposure to welfare reform led to decreases in food insecurity of the next generation of households, by about 10% for a 5-year increase in exposure, with stronger effects for women, individuals exposed for longer durations during childhood, individuals exposed in early childhood (0-5 years), and individuals whose mothers had a high school education (versus less). |
| JEL: | H53 I14 I3 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29054&r= |
| By: | R. Lamb, Austin |
| Abstract: | Japanese senior care demands have seen significant growth over the last several decades from a dramatic increase in the senior demographic (+65 in age), a high senior concentration in the current Japanese society brought about by age longevity, and the improved quality standard of care and greater accessibility by the governments revision of the Long‐term Care Insurance (LTCI) program. The supply side is also suffering from both a decreasing population growth of youth category (14 and younger) and a static graduation rate of new nursing that is not growing commensurate with the demand. The government has begun to understand these detrimental factors and further revised national immigration policy to categorize senior care aid workers as skilled labor. The growth in demand for senior care services, the static domestic labor structure, and the new leniency of immigration policies has created various opportunities for foreign workers who are considering Japan as their new country of residence. The greater inflow of migrants into Japan could be a solution that can bring the country back to an acceptable level of prosperity and high quality‐of‐life for the senior population that the nation once had in the stable‐growth period.However, there is a significant difference between attracting foreign migrants to the Japanese senior care industry and retaining the migrants once they are working in their full capacity. This paper introduces survey research to identify if community survey participants agree with migration in senior care and which factors affect their perception of receiving care from foreign caregivers. The survey includes 563 citizens within 12 different cities chosen randomly within Page | 1 Hiroshima, Shimane, and Yamaguchi prefectures. Their feedback on the opinion has highlighted several weaknesses in society that can be mitigated through appropriate public policy revision, community development, and legal protections. It is important to react in the short term to reverse the negative trends; especially, since foreigners are becoming harder to attract due to the stagnation economic conditions of Japan and the continued growth of the senior citizen base in need of qualified care. |
| Keywords: | Japanese immigration policy, senior care, foreign workers, rural communities, factors, perception, J20, F22 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000184&r= |
| By: | Paul J.J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)) |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s, distributional issues have once again become a focus of analysis in OECD countries and elsewhere. It has, however, become less common in the social sciences to engage in vigorous scientific debate about important phenomena and theses or to engage critically with different scientific approaches. This has led to the existence of different analytical findings in the social sciences - for example, in the fields of Economics and Sociology - that at times completely contradict each other; interestingly, this also applies to questions of inequality analysis. Based on a knowledge of key statistics and regression or simulation analyses, as well as thanks to theorems of foreign trade theory, a differentiated picture of inequality developments in the context of globalization has been formed in Economics. However, some experts in the field of Sociology in Germany, such as Andreas Reckwitz in his book "The Society of Singularities" , offer contributions to the debate which lack any recognizable theoretical foundation or empirical evidence on such important topics as economic-cultural rise and decline or inequality dynamics. In turn, certain influential actors in the political sphere have been demonstrably influenced by unscientific passages in Reckwitz's book, so that his very questionable claims regarding inequality dynamics - under the heading of a "paternoster effect" could have a destabilizing effect in national politics in Germany, supranational EU politics and even beyond. Policies that do not rely on theory- and evidence-based statements in important fields, but rather on untested assumptions, contribute to the "risk society" : endangering the stability and economic prosperity of all strata. It seems desirable to work on the basis of theory and evidence-based foundations in science and to pay careful attention to empirical results in the scientific and political communities; in doing so, also to take critical note of the current Reckwitz debate, which has also been somewhat controversial within the field of Sociology. Moreover, the approach of using lifetime effective income for the purposes of international comparison is both important and innovative. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, global economy, technology, singularity, critical rationalism, evidence, paternoster effect |
| JEL: | D63 F00 O1 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei303&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Kapaltzoglou, Fotein (Department of International and European Studies, School of Law) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing regulatory transformation towards a single European electricity market started several years ago. The rationale of this transformation is that the liberalisation of monopolistic energy structures should lead to the building of sustainable and flexible energy ecosystems, through an energy policy that sets goals in line with the requirements of our epoch, such as sustainable development, energy security, and the promotion of renewable energy sources. In this context, the liberalisation of the electricity market in Greece is explored, which is a complicated case in terms of development as it has only recently begun to exit from a long-term socio-economic crisis and strict adjustment programs. The concepts of energy market liberalisation, energy ecosystems, and energy policy are presented and compared to the main directions of the EU institutional environment and the evolution of the political and institutional framework of Greece. In Greece, an attempt has been made in recent years to liberalise the electricity market, which is hindered for a long time by socio-economic forces favoured by the monopolistic system of the market. This liberalisation process is also an opportunity for the country to move towards enhancing the structures that can lead to faster and more sustainable development and to maintain the pace of “coupling” with the most developed energy economies of Europe. |
| Keywords: | Energy Market Liberalisation; Electricity Market Liberalisation; Energy Business Ecosystem; Energy Policy; EU Energy Packages; Greek Energy System |
| JEL: | Q40 Q43 Q49 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_002&r= |
| By: | Muhammed Taher Al-Mudafer; Benjamin Avanzi; Greg Taylor; Bernard Wong |
| Abstract: | Neural networks offer a versatile, flexible and accurate approach to loss reserving. However, such applications have focused primarily on the (important) problem of fitting accurate central estimates of the outstanding claims. In practice, properties regarding the variability of outstanding claims are equally important (e.g., quantiles for regulatory purposes). In this paper we fill this gap by applying a Mixture Density Network ("MDN") to loss reserving. The approach combines a neural network architecture with a mixture Gaussian distribution to achieve simultaneously an accurate central estimate along with flexible distributional choice. Model fitting is done using a rolling-origin approach. Our approach consistently outperforms the classical over-dispersed model both for central estimates and quantiles of interest, when applied to a wide range of simulated environments of various complexity and specifications. We further extend the MDN approach by proposing two extensions. Firstly, we present a hybrid GLM-MDN approach called "ResMDN". This hybrid approach balances the tractability and ease of understanding of a traditional GLM model on one hand, with the additional accuracy and distributional flexibility provided by the MDN on the other. We show that it can successfully improve the errors of the baseline ccODP, although there is generally a loss of performance when compared to the MDN in the examples we considered. Secondly, we allow for explicit projection constraints, so that actuarial judgement can be directly incorporated in the modelling process. Throughout, we focus on aggregate loss triangles, and show that our methodologies are tractable, and that they out-perform traditional approaches even with relatively limited amounts of data. We use both simulated data -- to validate properties, and real data -- to illustrate and ascertain practicality of the approaches. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07924&r= |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of what types of values, especially in regards to obedience vs. independence, families impart to their children and how these values interact with social mobility. In the model, obedience is a useful characteristic for employers, especially when wages are low, because independent workers require more incentives (when wages are high, these incentives are automatic). Hence, in low-wage environments, low-income families will impart values of obedience to their children to prevent disadvantaging them in the labor market. To the extent that independence is useful for entrepreneurial activities, this then depresses their social mobility. High-income and privileged parents, on the other hand, always impart values of independence, since they expect that their children can enter into higher-income entrepreneurial (or managerial) activities thanks to their family resources and privileges. I also discuss how political activity can be hampered when labor market incentives encourage greater obedience and how this can generate multiple steady states with different patterns of social hierarchy and mobility. |
| JEL: | A13 J31 J62 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29125&r= |
| By: | Laurens Cherchye; Pierre-André Chiappori; Bram De Rock; Charlotte Ringdal; Frederic Vermeulen |
| Abstract: | To understand the household decision-making process regarding food expenditures for children in poor households in Nairobi, we conduct an experiment with 424 married couples. In the experiment, the spouses (individually and jointly) allocated money between themselves and nutritious meals for one of their children. First, we find strong empirical support for individual rationality and cooperative behavior. Second, our results suggest that women do not have stronger preferences for children’s meals than men. Third, the spouses’respective bargaining positions derived from consumption patterns strongly correlate with more traditional indicators. Finally, we document significant heterogeneity both betweenindividuals and intra-household decision processes. |
| Keywords: | collective model, intra-household allocation, experiment, Kenya, children |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/330565&r= |
| By: | Martin Ravallion |
| Abstract: | Thirty years of distributional data are used to study the short-term impacts of popular macroeconomic indicators on real household incomes from the poorest to the richest Americans. The appropriate weights on unemployment versus inflation vary across the distribution. The unemployment rate matters at all levels, but especially so for the poorest. Inflation rates matter at middle incomes, though Okun’s famous Misery Index only performs well for the top income groups. GDP growth matters at all levels and proportionately more for the poorest, though only via the unemployment rate. Recessions are poverty-increasing, and skewness-decreasing, but with ambiguous effects on overall inequality. |
| JEL: | D31 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29050&r= |
| By: | Hossain Ahmed Taufiq |
| Abstract: | Social accountability refers to promoting good governance by making ruling elites more responsive. In Bangladesh, where bureaucracy and legislature operate with little effective accountability or checks and balances, traditional horizontal or vertical accountability proved to be very blunt and weak. In the presence of such faulty mechanisms, ordinary citizens access to information is frequently denied, and their voices are kept mute. It impasses the formation of an enabling environment, where activists and civil society institutions representing the ordinary peoples interest are actively discouraged. They become vulnerable to retribution. Social accountability, on the other hand, provides an enabling environment for activists and civil society institutions to operate freely. Thus, leaders and administration become more accountable to people. An enabling environment means providing legal protection, enhancing the availability of information and increasing citizen voice, strengthening institutional and public service capacities and directing incentives that foster accountability. Donors allocate significant shares of resources to encouraging civil society to partner with elites rather than holding them accountable. This paper advocate for a stronger legal environment to protect critical civil society and whistle-blowers, and for independent grant-makers tasked with building strong, self-regulating social accountability institutions. Key Words: Accountability, Legal Protection, Efficiency, Civil Society, Responsiveness |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13128&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Koronis, Epaminondas (University of Westminster, London, UK); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In economies where most firms are family-owned, there is a risk of poor management and problematic strategic and technological comprehension. Multiple cases prove the existence of a series of socio-economic pathologies in such firms that undermine an economy’s ability to overcome economic crises through innovative and entrepreneurial thinking and adaptability. The paper aims to present the relationship between entrepreneurship and “development and crisis” from the perspective of Greece’s current socio-economic crisis. It first analyzes the neo-Schumpeterian entrepreneurship theory and the structures that allow innovative and competitive models to appear and then links this context with Greece’s case. The “Stra.Tech.Man” theoretical framework of physiological types of entrepreneurship is suggested as the analytical base for elaborating a local development policy instrument for economies where such less competitive businesses prevail. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; socio-economic crisis; Greek crisis; neo-Schumpeterian perspective; Stra.Tech.Man physiology; entrepreneurship types; less competitive firms; local development |
| JEL: | B52 L26 |
| Date: | 2021–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_001&r= |
| By: | Lance Lochner; Qian Liu; Martin Gervais |
| Abstract: | This paper uses new administrative data with detailed borrower information and lengthy repayment histories from the Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP) to measure rates of return on undergraduate student loans. We document substantial heterogeneity in returns based on information available at the time loans were disbursed, including province of residence, field of study, and institution of attendance. Field of study is a particularly important determinant of rates of return, explaining 22% of the variation in predicted returns across borrowers. We explore the implications of this variation for CSLP cross-subsidization across borrowers and potential risk-based loan limits. Given the variation in ex ante predicted returns across borrowers, using all available information at the time of loan disbursement, we study the implications of potential cream-skimming of high-return borrowers by private lenders. |
| JEL: | D14 H52 H81 I22 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29130&r= |
| By: | Stephen Coussens; Jann Spiess |
| Abstract: | Instrumental variables (IV) regression is widely used to estimate causal treatment effects in settings where receipt of treatment is not fully random, but there exists an instrument that generates exogenous variation in treatment exposure. While IV can recover consistent treatment effect estimates, they are often noisy. Building upon earlier work in biostatistics (Joffe and Brensinger, 2003) and relating to an evolving literature in econometrics (including Abadie et al., 2019; Huntington-Klein, 2020; Borusyak and Hull, 2020), we study how to improve the efficiency of IV estimates by exploiting the predictable variation in the strength of the instrument. In the case where both the treatment and instrument are binary and the instrument is independent of baseline covariates, we study weighting each observation according to its estimated compliance (that is, its conditional probability of being affected by the instrument), which we motivate from a (constrained) solution of the first-stage prediction problem implicit to IV. The resulting estimator can leverage machine learning to estimate compliance as a function of baseline covariates. We derive the large-sample properties of a specific implementation of a weighted IV estimator in the potential outcomes and local average treatment effect (LATE) frameworks, and provide tools for inference that remain valid even when the weights are estimated nonparametrically. With both theoretical results and a simulation study, we demonstrate that compliance weighting meaningfully reduces the variance of IV estimates when first-stage heterogeneity is present, and that this improvement often outweighs any difference between the compliance-weighted and unweighted IV estimands. These results suggest that in a variety of applied settings, the precision of IV estimates can be substantially improved by incorporating compliance estimation. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03726&r= |
| By: | Can Urgun; Leeat Yariv |
| Abstract: | We study a model of retrospective search in which an agent—a researcher, an online shopper, or a politician—tracks the value of a product. Discoveries beget discoveries and their observations are correlated over time, which we model using a Brownian motion. The agent, a standard exponential discounter, decides the breadth and length of search. We fully characterize the optimal search policy. The optimal search scope is U-shaped, with the agent searching most ambitiously when approaching a breakthrough or when nearing search termination. A drawdown stopping boundary is optimal, where the agent ceases search whenever current observations fall a constant amount below the maximal achieved alternative. We also show special features that emerge from contracting with a retrospective searcher. |
| JEL: | C61 C73 D25 D83 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29127&r= |
| By: | Hope, David; Limberg, Julian; Weber, Nina Sophie |
| Abstract: | Why do (some) ordinary citizens support tax cuts for the rich? A prominent explanation in the political economy literature stresses the role of unenlightened self-interest. According to this view, citizens consistently fail to gauge whether they are directly affected by tax policy reforms. We use a randomized survey experiment in the US to identify the drivers of preferences for cutting taxes on the rich. The results show that informing individuals of whether they are directly affected by a cut in the top federal income tax rate has no impact on preferences. We therefore find no support for the unenlightened self-interest explanation. In contrast, we find preferences for taxing the rich are fundamentally affected by information that shifts citizens' core fairness beliefs, as well as information on the past trajectory of top tax rates. Our results therefore align with explanations of tax policy preferences that emphasize the importance of fairness perceptions and reference points. |
| Date: | 2021–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:chk9b&r= |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Lanjouw, Peter F. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Measuring poverty trends and dynamics is an important undertaking for poverty reduction policies, which is further highlighted by the SDG goal 1 on eradicating poverty by 2030. We provide a broad overview of the pros and cons of poverty imputation in data-scarce environments, update recent review papers, and point to the latest research on the topics. We briefly review two common uses of poverty imputation methods that aim at tracking poverty over time and estimating poverty dynamics. We also discuss new areas for imputation. |
| Keywords: | poverty, imputation, consumption, wealth index, synthetic panels, household survey |
| JEL: | C15 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14631&r= |
| By: | Charlie Pilgrim; Weisi Guo; Thomas T. Hills |
| Abstract: | Over the past 200 years, rising rates of information proliferation have created new environments for information competition and, consequently, new selective forces on information evolution. These forces influence the information diet available to consumers, who in turn choose what to consume, creating a feedback process similar to that seen in many ecosystems. As a first step towards understanding this relationship, we apply animal foraging models of diet choice to describe the evolution of long and short form media in response to human preferences for maximising utility rate. The model describes an increase in information rate (i.e., entropy) in response to information proliferation, as well as differences in entropy between short-form and long-form media (such as social media and books, respectively). We find evidence for a steady increase in word entropy in diverse media categories since 1900, as well as an accelerated entropy increase in short-form media. Overall the evidence suggests an increasingly competitive battle for our attention that is having a lasting influence on the evolution of language and communication systems. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12848&r= |
| By: | Roberto Bonfatti; Giovanni Facchini; Alexander Tarasov; Gian Luca Tedeschi; Cecilia Testa |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role played by politics in shaping the Italian railway network, and its impact on long-run growth patterns. Examining a large state-planned railway expansion that took place during the second half of the 19th century in a recently unified country, we first study how both national and local political processes shaped the planned railway construction. Exploiting close elections, we show that a state-funded railway line is more likely to be planned for construction where the local representative is aligned with the government. Furthermore, the actual path followed by the railways was shaped by local pork-barreling, with towns supporting winning candidates more likely to see a railway crossing their territory. Finally, we explore the long-run effects of the network expansion on economic development. Employing population and economic censuses for the entire 20th century, we show that politics at a critical juncture played a key role in explaining the long-run evolution of local economies. |
| Keywords: | infrastructural development, political economy |
| JEL: | N01 N73 D72 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9228&r= |
| By: | Filippo Gusella; Anna Maria Variato |
| Abstract: | In recent years the names of Minsky and Piketty gained increasing notoriety to researchers because the two authors investigated issues of financial instability and income inequality, which represent both two unsolved macroeconomic problems of the new millennium, and evidence contradicting the long†run implications of mainstream macroeconomics. By combining these two names we set ourselves an ambitious goal, going beyond the technical aspects of the model presented in the paper. Indeed, not only we want to contribute directly to the debate meant at clarifying the controversial relationship between financial instability and income inequality; we also aim at addressing a broader issue which is the explanation of the reasons why a theoretical revolution in macroeconomics has not yet occurred, and why financial aspects still play a subordinate role to real factors in the explanation of growth and cycles. In this broader perspective Minsky and Piketty are assumed as extreme examples of the opposite poles of heterodoxy and orthodoxy. Both target and argumentative line of the contribution are quite unconventional, as usually financial instability and income inequality, are treated as separate if not independent issues of inquiry; and methodological reflection is no longer a customary explicit part of technical papers. We discuss possible reasons why these two circumstances happen. The theoretical framework proposed in this paper builds on Ferri (2016), who presents a class of demandled models in a medium†run time horizon. This class of models is not conventional too, though it belongs to “pedagogical models†, we consider especially relevant tool for macroeconomics. Among the different specifications investigated by the author, we select the nearest to possible comparison with Piketty (2014) and then we introduce corporate debt into the financial account of firms. Because of the non†linearity of the model, we explore its dynamic properties with numerical simulations. Such simulations are also performed to assess the parameters enabling to support the Financial Instability Hypothesis. Aiming at deepening the comprehension of robustness properties, we also consider analytic results from a linearized version of the model. Obviously, the criticism addressed to Piketty with respect to the definition and measurement of inequality can be extended to our model too, as we use the same expedient to check the evolution of inequality. This leads to emphasize the relevance of the issue of measurement as a critical one for future developments. Nevertheless, this does not impinge on the achievement of our purpose. Indeed, our analysis confirms the utility of pedagogical models. Furthermore, it underlines the need of a change of economic vision such that complexity comes as a substantial part of representation. In terms of future perspectives these considerations point out the need for macroeconomic epistemology to resume constructive dialectics: a mixture of plural narratives and foundations for new visions of economic policy. Those just proposed at the end of the paper differ from orthodox ones as they call for financial regulation, they underline qualitative aspects and heterogeneity; but such embryonal policy suggestions stem from the overall perspective described in the paper, a perspective rooted into Ferri’s notion of medium†run, and qualified by Minsky through an eclectic approach leading to networks of balance†sheets: two ways highly overlapping though not totally equivalent to represent the reality of and endogenously unstable capitalism lying at the edge of chaos. |
| Keywords: | Economic Inequality, Financial Instability Hypothesis, Endogenous Cycles |
| JEL: | B41 D31 E32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2021_15.rdf&r= |
| By: | Gilles Teneau (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UN - Université de Nantes - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes, ESD R3C - Équipe Sécurité & Défense - Renseignement, Criminologie, Crises, Cybermenaces - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); Ghizlane Kinani (UTLN SeaTech - Université de Toulon - École d’ingénieurs SeaTech - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Faced with new extreme environments, the world is changing, and professions must adapt. Consequently, teaching and research staff must also adapt, modify their behavior and pedagogy, and consequently take a «social leadership» type position, in the spirit of a CSR approach, with regard to their students and colleagues. Faced with a world in crisis, with difficult contexts in extreme environments, new forms of teaching must emerge, in which teacher-researchers become social leaders. The research work specific to leadership is a strong element that we can take into account. A new ethic of teachers with regard to their students, colleagues and organization emerges as a social responsibility and is based on the elements of emotional intelligence. This paper is a work in progress, first field observations were made with training centers as well as with trainers, the observations raised the proposal of a social leadership of teachers. We propose in a second step an exploratory analysis with teacher-researchers and management schools, according to the methodological triangulation. |
| Abstract: | Face aux nouveaux environnements de type extrême, le monde change, les métiers doivent s'adapter, en conséquence les enseignements et les enseignants-chercheurs doivent aussi s'adapter, modifier leurs comportements, leur pédagogie, et par conséquent prendre une position de type «leadership social», dans l'esprit d'une approche RSE, au regard de leurs étudiants et de leurs collègues. Face à un monde en crise, à des contextes difficiles en environnements extrêmes, de nouvelles formes d'enseignement doivent émerger, en cela les enseignants chercheurs deviennent des leaders sociaux. Les travaux de recherches propres au leadership sont des éléments forts que nous pouvons prendre en compte. Une nouvelle éthique des enseignants au regard de leurs élèves, de leurs collègues et de leur organisation émerge en tant que responsabilité sociale et s'appuie sur les éléments de l'intelligence émotionnelle. Ce papier est un travail en cours, de premières observations terrain ont été faites auprès de centres de formation ainsi qu'auprès de formateurs, les observations soulevaient la proposition d'un leadership social des enseignants. Nous proposons dans un second temps une analyse exploratoire auprès d'enseignants-chercheurs et d'école de management, selon la triangulation méthodologique. |
| Keywords: | Ethics,Emotion,Teaching,Teacher,Leadership,Ethique.,Enseignement,Enseignant |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277496&r= |
| By: | Josep Ferret Mas (Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Reading); Alexander Mihailov (Department of Economics, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | The present paper endorses an interdisciplinary approach to the complex and urgent issue of intergenerational climate justice, and proposes a rich menu of policy options, in particular some novel and unconventional ones, to resolve it immediately but flexibly. We incorporate the realistic features of economic growth, nominal interest, expected inflation, and the option for nonrepayment or partial repayment of public debt across generations as well as a central bank institution, or rather the global network of central banks, to implement climate mitigation policy in the stylized model proposed by Sachs (2015). Similarly, but even without repayment, we find such kind of policy, which we label 'green quantitative easing', or 'green QE', to be Pareto-efficient across generations. Differently, we argue that neither the present, nor future generations need to repay the novel greening compensatory transfers (GCTs) to households and firms we envisage to serve as a main financial instrument of central banks in triggering a decisive reversal in environmental deterioration right now, without further delay, given the emergency of the situation. Moreover, and in support of the economic considerations and incentives, we argue from philosophical, legal and political-theory grounds that such a financial scheme intermediated by central banks worldwide serves two types of principles of intergenerational climate justice: (i) principles that tell us to mitigate climate change now and avoid harm for future generations; and (ii) principles that tell us how to share mitigation costs fairly across generations. Our spectrum of suggested pragmatic green QE initiatives includes potential issuance by firms and households of super-long-term coupon bonds to be held by central banks over up to a century, possibly GCT-based only, and allows for much flexibility and complementarity in the practical solutions to be potentially chosen, with voluntary partial repayment or not of the mitigation costs across generations. |
| Keywords: | green quantitative easing, greening compensatory transfers, central banks, public finance, climate change mitigation policy, intergenerational climate justice, intergenerational social welfare |
| JEL: | D61 D63 D78 E21 E58 F55 G28 H23 O44 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2021-16&r= |
| By: | Serena Ng |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus is a global event of historical proportions and just a few months changed the time series properties of the data in ways that make many pre-covid forecasting models inadequate. It also creates a new problem for estimation of economic factors and dynamic causal effects because the variations around the outbreak can be interpreted as outliers, as shifts to the distribution of existing shocks, or as addition of new shocks. I take the latter view and use covid indicators as controls to 'de-covid' the data prior to estimation. I find that economic uncertainty remains high at the end of 2020 even though real economic activity has recovered and covid uncertainty has receded. Dynamic responses of variables to shocks in a VAR similar in magnitude and shape to the ones identified before 2020 can be recovered by directly or indirectly modeling covid and treating it as exogenous. These responses to economic shocks are distinctly different from those to a covid shock, and distinguishing between the two types of shocks can be important in macroeconomic modeling post-covid. |
| JEL: | C18 E0 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29060&r= |
| By: | Kenwin Maung |
| Abstract: | Maximum likelihood estimation of large Markov-switching vector autoregressions (MS-VARs) can be challenging or infeasible due to parameter proliferation. To accommodate situations where dimensionality may be of comparable order to or exceeds the sample size, we adopt a sparse framework and propose two penalized maximum likelihood estimators with either the Lasso or the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty. We show that both estimators are estimation consistent, while the SCAD estimator also selects relevant parameters with probability approaching one. A modified EM-algorithm is developed for the case of Gaussian errors and simulations show that the algorithm exhibits desirable finite sample performance. In an application to short-horizon return predictability in the US, we estimate a 15 variable 2-state MS-VAR(1) and obtain the often reported counter-cyclicality in predictability. The variable selection property of our estimators helps to identify predictors that contribute strongly to predictability during economic contractions but are otherwise irrelevant in expansions. Furthermore, out-of-sample analyses indicate that large MS-VARs can significantly outperform "hard-to-beat" predictors like the historical average. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12552&r= |
| By: | Larojan, Chandrasegaran |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of accounting ratios on stock market price of top twenty companies based on the highest market capitalization listed in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE). The objectives of this study were to examine the impact of Earnings per Share (EPS) on stock market price; to examine the impact of Dividend per Share (DPS) on stock market price, to examine the impact of Price Earnings ratio (PE) on stock market price and to examine the impact of Market to Book ratio (MB) on stock market price. The panel data was collected from the top twenty companies for the period of five years from 2015 to 2019. EPS, DPS, PE and MB ratios were used as the proxies for the independent variables and stock price was used as the proxy for the dependent variable for this study. In order to perform the inferential analysis Pearson correlation analysis, panel regression with fixed effect, random effect and pooled linear regression were used. Hausman test was adopted in order to choose either random effect regression or fixed effect regression. According to pooled regression analysis, EPS, DPS and PE ratios had positive significant impact on stock market price. MB ratio had a negative significant impact on stock market price. According to fixed effect regression analysis, EPS, PE and MB ratios had positive insignificant impact on stock market price whereas DPS had a positive significant impact on stock market price. This study offers an insight to the potential investors to make the rational investment decisions in the stock market. |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:xwk7r&r= |
| By: | Pauline Affeldt; Elena Argentesi; Lapo Filistrucchi |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the relevance of multi-homing in two-sided markets. First, we build a micro-founded structural econometric model that encompasses demand for differentiated products and allows for multi-homing on both sides of the market. We then use an original dataset on the Italian daily newspaper market that includes information on double-homing by readers to estimate readers’ and advertisers’ demand. The results show that an econometric model that does not allow for multi-homing is likely to produce biased estimates of demand on both sides of the market. In particular, on the reader side, accounting for multi-homing helps to recognize complementarity between products; on the advertising side, it allows to measure to what extent advertising demand depends on the shares of exclusive and overlapping readers. |
| Keywords: | two-sided markets, platforms, multi-homing, media, advertising |
| JEL: | C51 D43 L13 L82 M37 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2021_16.rdf&r= |
| By: | Keith M. Drake; Robert He; Thomas McGuire; Alice K. Ndikumana |
| Abstract: | After receiving FDA approval, a generic drug manufacturer can launch “at risk” before conclusion of any patent infringement litigation, but it risks paying damages if it loses. The generic can eliminate the risk by waiting to launch until the appeals process is complete but waiting has downsides too. We develop a model that implies that, after the generic has won a district court decision, at-risk entry is generally profitable and will occur quickly unless the cost of waiting for the appeal is very low. We examine generic drug applications that have received FDA approval with “first-filer” status (which precludes later filing generics from entering before the first filer). In our data, the generic and brand usually settled prior to the conclusion of litigation. For the remainder, drugs that received FDA approval prior to a favorable district court decision were always launched at risk. Generics without FDA approval before a favorable district court decision launched upon approval unless the approval was close in time to the appeal decision or it had forfeited the first filer exclusivity (indicating a low cost of waiting). We also consider implications of at-risk entry for social welfare, arguing that at-risk entry is analogous to a “buy out” of the patent with favorable welfare implications in both the short run (consumer prices) and long run (efficient incentives for R&D). |
| JEL: | D22 I11 I18 O32 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29131&r= |
| By: | Michael Keane (School of Economics); Timothy Neal (UNSW School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We provide a simple survey of the weak instrument literature, aimed at giving practical advice to applied researchers. It is well-known that 2SLS has poor properties if instruments are exogenous but weak. We clarify these properties, explain weak instrument tests, and examine how behavior of 2SLS depends on instrument strength. A common standard for acceptable instruments is a ï¬ rst-stage F-statistic of at least 10. But 2SLS has poor properties in that context: It has very little power, and generates artiï¬ cially low standard errors precisely in those samples where it generates estimates most contaminated by endogeneity. This causes standard t-tests to give misleading results. In fact, one-tailed 2SLS t-tests suffer from severe size distortions unless F is in the thousands. Anderson-Rubin and conditional t-tests alleviate this problem, and should be used even with strong instruments. A ï¬ rst-stage F of 50 or more is necessary to give reasonable conï¬ dence that 2SLS will outperform OLS. Otherwise, OLS combined with controls for sources of endogeneity may be a superior research strategy to IV. |
| Keywords: | Instrumental variables, weak instruments, 2SLS, endogeneity, F-test, size distortions of tests, Anderson-Rubin test, conditional t-test, Fuller, JIVE |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:swe:wpaper:2021-05a&r= |
| By: | Laurent Gauthier (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis) |
| Abstract: | Ancient Greek history is sometimes perceived as offering a dearth of material for quantitative approaches, and it has not benefited from much interest from either quantitative historians or cliometricians. In this paper, we show that there is a strong potential for the quantitative exploitation of ancient Greek data, but new methods may be required. Indeed, focusing on primary sources, we build several large-scale and centralized datasets by exploiting electronically available, albeit sometimes atomic, literary and epigraphic texts, such as the Diorisis corpus, inscriptions from PHI, onomastic sequences from the BDEG and MAP, and individual names from the LGPN. Stepping aside from the methods that are common in quantitative history, we then consider the information in a distributional perspective inspired from the methods of complex systems analysis. Relying on this renewed combination of clio and metrics, we point out a series of regularity patterns in these historical records. Considering ancient Greek data in a nonatomic fashion, in the light of broad distributional patterns, raises new questions for historians. |
| Keywords: | Ancient Greece,digital humanities,econometrics,power laws |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03315002&r= |
| By: | Rosemary Avery; John Cawley; Julia Eddelbuettel; Matthew D. Eisenberg; Charlie Mann; Alan D. Mathios |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact on consumer behavior of a firm’s voluntary disclosure of information. Specifically, we study the impact of Starbucks’ disclosure of calorie information on its menu boards in June 2013. Using data on over 250,000 consumers’ visits to specific restaurant chains, we estimate difference-in-difference models that compare the change in the probability that consumers recently visited Starbucks to the change in the probability that they recently visited a similar chain that did not voluntarily disclose: Dunkin Donuts. Estimates from difference-in-differences models indicate that we cannot reject the null hypothesis that Starbucks’ disclosure of calorie information had no impact on the probability that consumers patronized Starbucks in the past month. However, we find evidence of a transitory negative impact on the probability of visits the first year after disclosure, and evidence that disclosure reduced the probability of visits by men. These results are useful for understanding how consumers respond to the voluntary disclosure of information, a decision faced by many firms. |
| JEL: | D22 D8 I12 L2 L83 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29080&r= |
| By: | Martin Kittel; Wolf-Peter Schill |
| Abstract: | To decarbonize the economy, many governments have set targets for the use of renewable energy sources. These are often formulated as relative shares of electricity demand or supply. Implementing respective constraints in energy models is a surprisingly delicate issue. They may cause a modeling artifact of excessive electricity storage use. We introduce this phenomenon as 'unintended storage cycling', which can be detected in case of simultaneous storage charging and discharging. In this paper, we provide an analytical representation of different approaches for implementing minimum renewable share constraints in models, and show how these may lead to unintended storage cycling. Using a parsimonious optimization model, we quantify related distortions of optimal dispatch and investment decisions as well as market prices, and identify important drivers of the phenomenon. Finally, we provide recommendations on how to avoid the distorting effects of unintended storage cycling in energy modeling. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13380&r= |
| By: | Ryo Kato; Tatsushi Okuda; Takayuki Tsuruga |
| Abstract: | Previous studies have stressed that inflation dynamics exhibit substantial dispersion across sectors. Using US producer price data, we present evidence that sectoral inflation persistence is negatively correlated with market concentration, which is difficult to reconcile with the prediction of the standard model of monopolistic competition. To better explain the data, we incorporate imperfect common knowledge into the monopolistic competition model introduced by Melitz and Ottaviano (2008). In the model, pricing complementarity among firms increases as market concentration decreases. Because higher pricing complementarity generates greater inflation persistence, our model successfully replicates the observed negative correlation between inflation persistence and market concentration across sectors. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1082r&r= |
| By: | Svraka, András (Tax Policy and Research Unit, Ministry of Finance) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses 2009--19 income tax data to investigate trends in Hungarian market income inequalities. Wage inequality decreased, total inequality increased but these changes differ across the income distribution. Income share of the bottom 40% decreased slightly due an inflow of marginally attached workers. Wages above this threshold -- corresponding to full time employment -- significantly flattened, including in the top 1%, while total income's share remained mostly unchanged. Similar patterns hold within groups for gender, age, and regions but between group inequality rose for age and decreased for regions due to changes in taxpayer population. Growth was broadly shared for non marginally attached, although in the top 0.1% all growth came from capital income. Persistence of income during this period was low in the bottom half of the income distribution, suggesting an increased inequality in this segment might not lead to higher inequality in the long run. |
| JEL: | D31 J11 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auo:moftwp:8&r= |
| By: | Peter Arcidiacono; Karthik Muralidharan; Eun-young Shim; John D. Singleton |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use a unique two-stage experiment that randomized access to school vouchers across both markets and students in rural India to estimate the revealed preference value of school choice. In the first step of the research design, we develop an empirical model of school choice subject to liquidity and credit constraints that is estimated using data from only the control markets. Based on this exercise, we estimate that the voucher generated welfare gains exceeding four times the average private school's annual tuition on average to the students induced into private schooling. The second step of the research design will validate the estimated welfare impacts by comparing model predictions for a simulated voucher program in control markets with the data from the treatment group. The results in this paper are based on the first step (using only control data) and this draft serves as a pre-commitment to the model estimates and predictions before examining the experimental data. |
| JEL: | D12 H42 I21 I28 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29077&r= |
| By: | Martin Indergand; Gabriela Hrasko |
| Abstract: | We propose a simple model to estimate the risk-neutral loss distribution from the credit spreads of long-term debt instruments with different seniorities. We apply our model to a sample of global systemically important banks that have issued bail-in debt in order to meet the total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) requirements established after the global financial crisis. Bail-in debt is a new debt category that absorbs losses in a gone-concern situation and that ranks between subordinated debt and non-eligible senior debt. With a structural model for these three debt layers, we calibrate the tail of the risk-neutral loss distribution such that it is consistent with the observed market prices. Based on this loss distribution, we find that the expected loss in a gone-concern situation exceeds TLAC for most banks and that the risk-neutral probability that TLAC will not be sufficient to cover the losses in such a situation is approximately 50%. The large expected losses that we find with our model are a consequence of the similar pricing of bail-in debt relative to other senior debt. We argue that regulators should promote further clarity about the subordination and the conversion mechanism of bail-in debt to achieve a more differentiated pricing that is more in line with regulatory expectations. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, bank regulation, loss-absorbing capacity, creditor hierarchy, bail-in debt, bank resolution |
| JEL: | G12 G28 G32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2021-13&r= |
| By: | Link, Albert (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); Gicheva, Dora (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We suggest that a political leader or a political administration can be described in terms of a public sector entrepreneurship framework. To illustrate, we define the actions of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Administration to refocus the emphasis of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as an innovative public policy initiative. And, we explore empirically the social consequences of those actions in terms of changes in the number of STEM employees at the EPA and the number of attendant innovative scientific publications. |
| Keywords: | Public sector entrepreneurship; Environmental Protection Agency; Trump Administration; STEM employees; Scientific publications; |
| JEL: | H11 O38 Q51 |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:uncgec:2021_006&r= |
| By: | Sehnbruch, Kirsten |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a methodology for measuring Quality of Employment (QoE) deprivation from a multidimensional perspective in six Central American countries (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama) using a dataset specifically designed to measure employment conditions. Building on previous work on multidimensional poverty and employment indicators, the paper uses the Alkire/Foster (AF) method to construct a synthetic indicator of the QoE at an individual level. It selects four dimensions that must be considered as essential to QoE deprivation: income, job stability, job security and employment conditions. These dimensions then subdivide into several indicators, a threshold for each indicator and dimension is established before defining an overall cut-off line that allows for the calculation of composite levels of deprivation. The results generated by this indicator show that Central American countries can be divided into three distinct and robust performance groups in terms of their QoE deprivation. Overall, approximately 60% of the deprivation levels are attributable to non-income variables, such as occupational status and job tenure. The methodology used can allow policymakers to identify and focus on the most vulnerable workers in a labour market and highlights the fact that having a formal written contract is no guarantee of good job quality, particularly in the case of women. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional indicators research; labour markets; employment; job quality; Latin America; Central America; GP1\100170; Springer deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2021–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109003&r= |
| By: | Qin, Fei; Mickiewicz, Tomasz; Estrin, Saul |
| Abstract: | Conceptualising early-stage new venture informal investors as co-entrepreneurs whose actions are socially embedded, we examine the role of social influence and how it interplays with entrepreneurial experience at the individual level leading to informal investment. We extend theories of social homophily and social influence to argue that informal investment decisions are influenced by shared experience and entrepreneurism in peer groups. We test our hypotheses with a multi-level model using first a large cross-country dataset and next in depth within a country. Our analysis reveals that both individual entrepreneurship experience and peer group-embedded experience significantly influence the likelihood that an individual becomes an early-stage investor. Furthermore, these social effects substitute for the lack of individual entrepreneurial experience. |
| Keywords: | informal investors; entrepreneurial experience; social homophily; peer influence; entrepreneurship capital; global entrepreneurship monitor (GEM); angel investors; Springer deal |
| JEL: | J1 F3 G3 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110890&r= |
| By: | Al-Kuwari, Omran (Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London (UCL)); Schönfisch, Max (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a critical tool for countries to meet decarbonisation targets. The main production pathways are based on natural gas or renewable electricity. LNG represents an increasingly important component of the global natural gas market. This paper examines synergies and linkages between the hydrogen and LNG values chains and quantifies the impact of increased low-carbon hydrogen production on global LNG flows. The analysis is conducted through interviews with LNG industry stakeholders, a review of secondary literature and a scenario-based assessment of the potential development of global low-carbon hydrogen production and LNG trade until 2050 using a novel, integrated natural gas and hydrogen market model. The model-based analysis shows that low-carbon hydrogen production could become a significant user of natural gas and thus stabilise global LNG demand. Furthermore, commercial and operational synergies could assist the LNG industry in developing a value chain around natural gas-based low-carbon hydrogen. |
| Keywords: | Hydrogen; LNG; natural gas |
| JEL: | Q40 Q42 Q49 |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2021_006&r= |
| By: | Julieta Caunedo; Namrata Kala |
| Abstract: | Economic activity in developing countries is labor-intensive, low-scale, and family run, with substantial family managerial time spent supervising hired labor. We use a randomized control trial that subsidizes access to rental equipment markets to study the impact of the adoption of mechanized practices on labor demand, productivity and managerial span of control. The intervention induces greater mechanization in the upstream production stage, and labor savings concentrated in downstream, non-mechanized stages. The reduction in worker supervision needs increases the span of control and allows households to increase non-agricultural income. We use the experimental elasticities to estimate a structural model where farmers make labor supply decisions in the family enterprise and outside of it. The consumption-equivalent welfare from the intervention amounts to 0.9%. The model provides structural estimates of the marginal return to capital at 8.8%, and the shadow value of family labor, 20% below their outside option in non-agriculture. |
| JEL: | D13 D2 O13 O53 Q0 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29061&r= |
| By: | Bhavook Bhardwaj; Kriti Manocha |
| Abstract: | We propose a boundedly rational model of choice where agents eliminate dominated alternatives using a transitive rationale before making a choice using a complete rationale. This model is related to the seminal two-stage model of Manzini and Mariotti (2007), the Rational Shortlist Method (RSM). We analyze the model through reversals in choice and provide its behavioral characterization. The procedure satisfies a weaker version of the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference (WARP) allowing for at most two reversals in choice in terms of set inclusion for any pair of alternatives. We show that the underlying rationales can be identified from the observable reversals in the choice. We also characterize a variant of this model in which both the rationales are transitive |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07424&r= |
| By: | Marco Gambaro; Valentino Larcinese; Riccardo Puglisi; James M. Snyder Jr. |
| Abstract: | We analyze minute-by-minute, individual level data on viewership for Italian TV news broadcasts (from AUDITEL™), matched with detailed data on content (from Osservatorio di Pavia). We are interested in the behavior of viewers, and in particular in their decision to switch away from a news program as a function of the type of story they are currently watching. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that “soft” news systematically induces viewers to switch away, even more than “hard” news. On the other hand, sensational stories about crime, accidents and disasters are associated with less switching. We also find significant differences in this switching behavior according to gender, age, and the specific TV channel being watched. For example, young people are relatively more likely to switch away from hard news than soft news, compared to older people. |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29020&r= |
| By: | Cadot, Julien; Kayser, Patrick |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313134&r= |
| By: | Jason Allen; Milena Wittwer |
| Abstract: | In traditional over-the-counter (OTC) markets, investors trade bilaterally through intermediaries referred to as dealers. An important regulatory question is whether to centralize OTC markets by shifting trades onto centralized platforms. We address this question in the context of the liquid Canadian government bond market. We document that dealers charge markups even in this market and show that there is a price gap between large investors who have access to a centralized platform and small investors who do not. We specify a model to quantify how much of this price gap is due to platform access and assess welfare effects. The model predicts that not all investors would use the platform even if platform access were universal. Nevertheless, the price gap would close by 32%–47%. Welfare would increase by 9%–30% because more trades are conducted by dealers who have high values to trade. |
| Keywords: | Financial institutions; Market structure and pricing |
| JEL: | D40 D47 G10 G20 L10 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:21-39&r= |
| By: | Bastian Schäfer (Paderborn University); Yuanhua Feng (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines data-driven estimation of the mean surface in nonparamet- ric regression for huge functional time series. In this framework, we consider the use of the double conditional smoothing (DCS), an equivalent but much faster translation of the 2D-kernel regression. An even faster, but again equivalent func- tional DCS (FCDS) scheme and a boundary correction method for the DCS/FCDS is proposed. The asymptotically optimal bandwidths are obtained and selected by an IPI (iterative plug-in) algorithm. We show that the IPI algorithm works well in practice in a simulation study and apply the proposals to estimate the spot-volatility and trading volume surface in high-frequency nancial data under a functional representation. Our proposals also apply to large lattice spatial or spatial-temporal data from any research area. |
| Keywords: | Spatial nonparametric regression, boundary correction, functional double conditional smoothing, bandwidth selection, spot volatility surface |
| JEL: | C14 C51 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:ciepap:143&r= |
| By: | Emily Aiken; Suzanne Bellue; Dean Karlan; Christopher R. Udry; Joshua Blumenstock |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), causing widespread food insecurity and a sharp decline in living standards. In response to this crisis, governments and humanitarian organizations worldwide have mobilized targeted social assistance programs. Targeting is a central challenge in the administration of these programs: given available data, how does one rapidly identify the individuals and families with the greatest need? This challenge is particularly acute in the large number of LMICs that lack recent and comprehensive data on household income and wealth. Here we show that non-traditional “big” data from satellites and mobile phone networks can improve the targeting of anti-poverty programs. Our approach uses traditional survey-based measures of consumption and wealth to train machine learning algorithms that recognize patterns of poverty in non-traditional data; the trained algorithms are then used to prioritize aid to the poorest regions and mobile subscribers. We evaluate this approach by studying Novissi, Togo’s flagship emergency cash transfer program, which used these algorithms to determine eligibility for a rural assistance program that disbursed millions of dollars in COVID-19 relief aid. Our analysis compares outcomes – including exclusion errors, total social welfare, and measures of fairness – under different targeting regimes. Relative to the geographic targeting options considered by the Government of Togo at the time, the machine learning approach reduces errors of exclusion by 4-21%. Relative to methods that require a comprehensive social registry (a hypothetical exercise; no such registry exists in Togo), the machine learning approach increases exclusion errors by 9-35%. These results highlight the potential for new data sources to contribute to humanitarian response efforts, particularly in crisis settings when traditional data are missing or out of date. |
| JEL: | C55 I32 I38 O12 O38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29070&r= |
| By: | Tomohito Aoyama; Nobuyuki Hanaki |
| Abstract: | The random Incentive System (RIS) is a standard method to incentivize participants in economic experiments. However, recent theoretical studies point out the possibility of its failure under ambiguity. We propose a modification of RIS, named independent RIS (I-RIS), to improve its reliability. We conducted an experiment to evaluate the performances of the standard RIS and I-RIS in direct and indirect manners. Whereas a nonnegligible fraction of participants are not consistent with the reversal-of-order axiom, a majority of ambiguity averse and seeking participants are. This implies that participants with nonneutral ambiguity attitudes may not report truthful preferences when RIS is used. However, randomization attitudes do not explain inconsistent choices under RIS. In addition, we did not find significant differences in performance between RIS and I-RIS. These results suggest that preferences for randomization, which is driven by nonneutral ambiguity attitudes, do not cause the failure of RIS. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1140&r= |
| By: | Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Jacobus Nel (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Elie Bouri (School of Business, Lebanese American University, Lebanon) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of rare disaster risks, captured by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, on the volatility of Treasury securities of the United States (US) involving 1- to 360-month maturities. We use a random coefficients panel-data-based heterogeneous autoregressive-realized variance (HAR-RV) model over the monthly period of 1961:06 to 2019:12, with the RV derived from the sum of squared daily changes in yield over a month. Our results show a positive and statistically significant (at the 1% level) impact of the ENSO cycle on RV, with the results being robust to alternative metrics of the ENSO, consideration of lagged impact, and decomposition of the ENSO cycle into El Nino and La Nina phases, with the former having a relatively stronger effect. With our panel estimation method using heterogeneous slope coefficients, we find that the effect on the entire term structure is positive, with higher impacts observed at the two-ends and the middle-part of the term-structure. Our results have important implications for investors in US Treasury securities. |
| Keywords: | Rare Disaster Risks, ENSO Cycle, Term-Structure Volatility, US Treasury Securities, Panel HAR-RV Model |
| JEL: | C33 E43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202155&r= |
| By: | Mario Schlemmer |
| Abstract: | The Gini index signals only the dispersion of the distribution and is not very sensitive to income differences at the tails of the distribution, where it would matter most. In the current work, novel inequality measures are proposed that address these limitations. In addition, two related measures of skewness are established. They all are based on a pair of functions that is obtained by attaching simple weights to the distances between the Lorenz curve and the 45-degree line, both in ascending and descending order, resulting in a pair of alternative inequality curves. The inequality measures derived from these two alternative inequality curves either complement the information about distributional dispersion measured by the Gini coefficient with information about distributional asymmetry, or are more sensitive to income differences at both tails of the distribution. The novel tools measure inequality appropriately and their Lorenz-based graphical representations give them intuitive appeal. Beyond socioeconomics, they can be applied in other disciplines of science. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03623&r= |
| By: | Serena Merrino |
| Abstract: | State-dependent fiscal multipliers and financial dynamics: An impulse response analysis by local projections for South Africa |
| Date: | 2021–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11015&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Context and risks. The pandemic may have a long-lasting impact on CEMAC’s growth potential, which is already curtailed by structural, governance, and transparency issues. The policy response from national and regional authorities in 2020 helped mitigate the economic fallout. CEMAC, however, experienced a severe recession in 2020, fiscal and external deficits increased, and public debt rose with some countries having debt sustainability issues. The region is facing an increasing dilemma between internal and external stability, as external reserves fell sharply between mid-2020 and March 2021. A moderate recovery in economic growth is expected from 2021. Supported by lower than previously projected total external financing of €4.8 billion over 2021–23, international reserves build-up would be slower than pre-pandemic. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and the vaccination program. Other significant risks include delayed implementation of the ongoing or possible new Fund-supported programs, uncertainties in filling large external financing needs, oil prices, and a possible deterioration in the security situation. |
| Keywords: | CEMAC member country; Policy recommendation; CEMAC authorities; fund emergency assistance; IMF's transparency policy; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Monetary base; Global; Central Africa |
| Date: | 2021–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/148&r= |
| By: | Berges, Miriam; Lupín, Beatriz; Rodríguez, Julieta A.; Yommi, Alejandra; Cincunegui, Carmen; Cendón, María Laura; Ariza, Cristian Mariano; Roldán, Camila; Urquiza Jozami, Gonzalo; Agullo, Agustina; Brillanti, Carla; Cutrera, Gianluca; Menéndez, Luciano; Pérez Guerra, Juan José Jesús |
| Abstract: | Entre el 21 y el 23 del mes de octubre del año 2020, en la Ciudad de Mar del Plata-Argentina, se llevó a cabo una degustación por parte de consumidores de kiwi, no expertos, no entrenados, quienes debieron contrastar productos nacionales -procedentes del Sudeste de la Provincia de Buenos Aires- y chilenos. El objetivo general fue profundizar el conocimiento de las percepciones y elecciones de los consumidores mediante la valoración de los atributos de calidad del producto. A tal fin, los participantes de la experiencia evaluaron globalmente muestras de fruta y atributos particulares como el "sabor", el "color de la pulpa", el "aroma", "la consistencia/firmeza de la pulpa" y la "apariencia externa", observando y degustando las mismas. Además, con base en un formulario de encuesta complementario, fueron consultados respecto a sus preferencias y disposición a pagar (DAP) por los kiwis regionales y extranjeros. |
| Keywords: | Percepción del Consumidor; Atributos de Calidad; Disposición a Pagar; Preferencias del Consumidor; Kiwi; |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3470&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the conceptual evolution of national identity and specificity creation and promotion (nation branding), combining it with theoretical background and developments in the concept of competitiveness and attractiveness and suggesting a new interpretive framework for understanding nation branding policy and strategy. The chapter is divided into specific elliptical steps, with the first one concerning the critical overview of nation branding recent literature, developed towards understanding the main research directions related to competitiveness. Competitiveness and attractiveness are then presented as a dynamic and undivided diptych, which cannot be exhausted in fragmented nation-centric approaches but arises through dynamic processes at the co-evolving levels of spaces, industries, and firms. In conclusion, a systemic contour for understanding space is composed and suggested as a multi-layered continuum, called the “cone of entrepreneurial and innovational dynamics,” which can be the substantial basis for articulating an integrated nation branding policy. |
| Keywords: | Nation branding concept; Competitiveness; Attractiveness; Cone of entrepreneurial and innovational dynamics; Micro-meso-macro; Seduction of nations; Evolutionary analysis |
| JEL: | L53 M31 |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_007&r= |
| By: | Descamps, Ambroise; Ke, Changxia; Page, Lionel |
| Abstract: | We investigate if, and why, an initial success can trigger a string of successes. Using random variations in success in a real-effort laboratory experiment, we cleanly identify the causal effect of an early success in a competition. We confirm that an early success indeed leads to increased chances of a later success. By alternatively eliminating strategic features of the competition, we turn on and off possible mechanisms driving the effect of an early success. Standard models of dynamic contest predict a strategic effect due to asymmetric incentives between initial winners and losers. Surprisingly, we find no evidence that they can explain the positive effect of winning. Instead, we find that the effect of winning seems driven by an information revelation effect, whereby players update their beliefs about their relative strength after experiencing an initial success. |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kb5ag&r= |
| By: | Carlos Giraldo |
| Abstract: | During the third annual High-level RFA Dialogue, held on October 10 2018, in Bali, Indonesia,theheads of Regional Financial Arrangements (RFAs) identifiedsix workstreams for taking stock of and exploring potential avenues for the enhancement of cooperation between the IMF and RFAs, as well as among RFAs themselves.1 This discussion paper outlines current interinstitutional collaboration in the area of Training and Institutional Capacity Development (TICD) and suggests possibilities for further progress in the field |
| Date: | 2020–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000470:019453&r= |
| By: | Angelo Cozzubo (University of Chicago); Javier Herrera (IRD, PUCP, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine); François Roubaud (DIAL-LEDa, IRD, Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Université); Mireille Razafindrakoto (DIAL-LEDa, IRD, Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Université) |
| Abstract: | Según la Universidad Johns Hopkins, Brasil y el Perú son dos de los países que cuenta con mayor número de infectados en América Latina y entre los cinco primeros en el mundo (octubre 2020) y donde la letalidad por COVID-19 ha sido de las más elevadas. Este estudio propone determinar el impacto sobre la mortalidad causado por el COVID-19, considerando las medidas de confinamiento, la pobreza y la movilidad residencia; ello contrastando Perú y Brasil como dos casos de políticas de emergencia contrarias. Para responder a la pregunta de investigación, el análisis emplea información de mortalidad de actualización diaria y desagregada a nivel municipal para ambos países. El análisis aplica un conjunto de medidas de relación y heterogeneidad espacial local y global entre los niveles de sobremortalidad subnacionales considerando sobre los datos armonizados. Complementariamente, se plantea un modelo de estudio de eventos con la de fallecimientos distritales para ambos países entre 2019-2020, y se miden impactos heterogéneos por edad, sexo, pobreza y movilidad residencial. El análisis espacial muestra que el patrón de muertes dista de ser aleatorio en el espacio; y que los hotspots de sobremortalidad comienzan en las “grandes ciudades” y se diseminan en el tiempo. Complementariamente, los estudios de evento muestran que el efecto no es lineal, sino que hay una evolución de corto y largo plazo de las muertes donde los grupos más afectados resultan los hombres y adultos mayores. Finalmente, considerando el caso de Lima, es posible verificar que la movilidad tiene un efecto significativo y positivo en la sobremortalidad que se condice con el final de la cuarentena y se ve potenciado en distritos pobres. According to Johns Hopkins University, Brazil and Peru are among the top five countries globally with the most COVID-19 infections (October 2020). Moreover, the casualties in both countries have been among the most elevated worldwide. This study proposes to determine the impact on mortality caused by COVID-19, considering the quarantine measures, poverty levels, and residential mobility; this contrasting Peru and Brazil as two cases of contrary emergency policies. To answer these research questions, we analyze daily updated mortality data at the municipal level for both countries. The analysis applies a set of spatial relationships and heterogeneity local and global measures for the subnational levels of excess mortality considering the harmonized data. In addition, we compute an event study model for both countries between 2019-2020 while measuring heterogeneous impacts by age, sex, poverty, and residential mobility. The spatial analysis shows that the pattern of deaths is far from being spatially random and that hotspots begin in the "big cities" and spread over time. In addition, the event studies show that the effect is not linear but that there is a short and long-term evolution of deaths, where the most affected groups are men and older adults. Finally, for the case of Lima, it is possible to verify that mobility has a significant and positive effect on excess mortality that is consistent with the end of the strict quarantine and enhanced in poorer districts. |
| Keywords: | COVID19, mortality, mobility, poverty, Peru, Brazil |
| JEL: | I14 I18 H12 I32 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202105&r= |
| By: | Le Bihan Hervé,; Marx Magali,; Matheron Julien. |
| Abstract: | A number of central banks in advanced countries use ranges, or bands, around their inflation target to formulate their monetary policy strategy. The adoption of such ranges has been proposed by some policymakers in the context of the Fed and the ECB reviews of their strategies. Using a standard New Keynesian macroeconomic model, we analyze the consequences of tolerance range policies, characterized by a stronger reaction of the central bank to inflation when inflation lies outside the range than when it is close to the target, ie the central value of the band. We show that a tolerance band should not be a zone of inaction: the lack of reaction within the band endangers macroeconomic stability and leads to the possibility of multiple equilibria; the trade-off between the reaction needed outside the range versus inside seems unfavorable: a very strong reaction, when inflation is far from the target, is required to compensate a moderately lower reaction within tolerance band; these results, obtained within the framework of a stylized model, are robust to many alterations, in particular allowing for the zero lower bound. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; inflation ranges; inflation bands; ZLB; endogenous regime switching. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:820&r= |
| By: | Jones, David; Louw, Stephanus |
| Abstract: | This technical memorandum summarizes a literature review update, elements of the construction of a test track to assess various aspects of gap-graded rubberized asphalt concrete (RHMA-G) mixes with and without the addition of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) as aggregate replacement, and a first-level analysis of the results from the first three Heavy Vehicle Simulator (HVS) tests. Four different RHMA-G mixes were placed on seven sections on the test track at the UCPRC. Mixes differed by nominal maximum aggregate size (NMAS, 1/2 and 3/4 in.) and the addition of 10% RAP by weight of the aggregate as an aggregate replacement. Single and double lifts of each mix were placed. Apart from the addition of RAP, the mix designs all met current Caltrans specifications. Although Caltrans currently does not permit more than one lift of RHMA-G on projects, the placement of each lift of each mix on the test track met current Caltrans specifications for RHMA-G layers. The first three HVS tests discussed in this technical memorandum covered the control section (0.2 ft. [60 mm], 1/2 in. NMAS with no RAP), a section with a single lift of 1/2 in. mix with RAP, and a section with two lifts of a 3/4 in. mix with RAP. Results from these first three HVS tests, which focused on rutting performance, indicated the following: • Performance of all three mixes was satisfactory in terms of the level of trafficking required to reach a terminal average maximum rut of 0.5 in. (12.5 mm). • The addition of RAP as a coarse aggregate replacement did not appear to have a significant influence on the test results. • The back calculated stiffnesses of the RHMA-G layer(s) on each section before and after HVS testing indicate that the trafficking did not cause any significant damage (i.e., loss in stiffness) in any of the three test sections. Stiffnesses increased after trafficking on two of the three sections, which was attributed to a combination of aging and densification of the layers under traffic. Some blending of reclaimed asphalt binder with the asphalt rubber binder over time on these two sections, both containing RAP, may have contributed to this stiffness increase. • No cracks were observed on any of the sections after trafficking. Given that only three sections have been tested to date, no recommendations on RHMA-G layer thicknesses or permitting the use of coarse RAP in RHMA-G mixes can be made at this time. These recommendations will be made after all the sections have been tested and the forensic investigations and associated laboratory testing have been completed. |
| Keywords: | Physical Sciences and Mathematics |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1cr8z3hf&r= |
| By: | Mundaca, Enrique A.; Lazzaro-Salazar, Mariana; Pujol-Cols, Lucas J.; Muñoz-Quezada, María Teresa |
| Abstract: | A bidimensional (cognitive-emotional) novel survey, the Emotional and Cognitive Scale of the Human-Nature Relationship (ECS-HNR), was designed and validated to measure Ecological Awareness (EAW) and Ecological Affectiveness (EAF) as vital aspects of the human-nature relationship. Data were collected in Chile between July and October 2019 from 474 participants ranging between 6 and 85 years old, using the snowball sampling technique. To examine the properties of the ECS-HNR we analyzed the results in terms of its content validity, reliability, factor structure, convergent validity, and discriminant validity. The ECS-HNR comprises 24 items divided into two subscales with three subscales each (EAF: Empathy, Enjoyment, and Connectedness; EAW: Understanding, Appreciation, and Perception). The results demonstrated that the ECS-HNR is a reliable instrument, as items (the two scales and their subscales) exhibited an acceptable internal consistency. Our findings demonstrate that the ECS-HNR allows the integration of both dimensions of the human–nature relationship and is appropriate to evaluate attitudes and feelings toward nature. |
| Keywords: | Vinculación Hombre-Naturaleza; |
| Date: | 2021–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3504&r= |
| By: | Stengel, Frank A. (Kiel University); Shim, David |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the gendered representation of military service in the German YouTube series Die Rekruten (DR) (The Recruits), a popular web series produced on behalf of the German armed forces (Bundeswehr) for recruitment purposes, which accompanies 12 navy recruits during their basic training. The article is situated within research on masculinity and the military, in particular military recruitment. It supplements current scholarship by studying a previously neglected case that is of particular interest given Germany’s antimilitarist culture, which should make military recruitment and military public relations more difficult. The article asks how military service is represented in DR, what its discursive effects are, and what role (if any) masculinity plays in this process. We find support for recent feminist research on military masculinities (including in military recruitment) that emphasizes ambiguity and contradiction. What distinguishes the construction of military masculinity in DR from, for example, recruitment advertisements in the United States or the United Kingdom is its markedly civil character. This not only broadens the military’s appeal for a more diverse audience but also increases the legitimacy of the military and its activities. It does so by concealing the violence that has for the past two decades also been a very real part of what the Bundeswehr does. |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ke9ru&r= |
| By: | Dikau, Simon; Volz, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | This article examines how addressing climate-related risks and supporting mitigation and adaptation policies fit into central bank mandates. We conduct an analysis of mandates and objectives using the IMF's Central Bank Legislation Database and compare these to sustainability-related policies central banks have adopted in practice. Out of 135 central banks, only 12% have explicit sustainability mandates, while 40% are mandated to support the government's policy priorities, which mostly include sustainability goals. However, given that climate risks can directly affect central banks' traditional core responsibilities, all institutions ought to incorporate climate-related physical and transition risks into their policy frameworks to safeguard macro-financial stability. |
| Keywords: | central bank mandates; central banks; green finance; ES/R009708/1; UKRI fund |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109302&r= |
| By: | Jiranyakul, Komain |
| Abstract: | Contributing to the controversial issue on the impact of government spending on economic growth, this paper shows that government spending has long-run impact in stimulating aggregate output in Thailand during the floating exchange rate regime. The results reveal that the long-run relationship between aggregate output, government expenditures and private consumption is stable. Based on quarterly dataset during 1997Q3 to 2019Q4, the results suggest that expansionary fiscal policy is effective under the floating exchange rate regime. Furthermore, the traditional version of the Wagner’s law is supported since an expansion in aggregate output causes government expenditure to increase. Therefore, the findings in this paper support both Keynesian hypothesis and the Wagner’s law. |
| Keywords: | Government expenditures, real GDP, cointegration, causality |
| JEL: | E62 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109054&r= |
| By: | Marla Ripoll |
| Abstract: | Official recession figures ignore the costs associated with the loss of human life due to COVID-19. This paper constructs full recession measures that take into account the death toll. Our model features tractable heterogeneity, constant relative risk aversion to mortality risk, and age-specific survival rates. Using an estimated one-year death toll of 500 thousand people and a 3.5% recession, we find that the corresponding full recession is 24% on average across individuals, 13% for a median voter, and 7% for planner with moderate inequality aversion. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:7143&r= |
| By: | Le, Tam-Tri |
| Abstract: | The video game industry is having problems of placing short-term monetary gain over long-term vision. |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7x53v&r= |
| By: | Marjit, Sugata; Mandal, Biswajit |
| Abstract: | In this paper we revisit the influential theory of monopolistic competition and optimum product variety as developed by Dixit and Stiglitz (1977) with applications in international trade by Krugman (1979,1980), by modeling fixed and variable costs of production in terms of underlying use of skilled and unskilled labor in a single good model. This is different from earlier work on multi sector variant of Krugman cum Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model such as Helpman (1981) and others. In our structure factor endowment and factor intensities determine both number of varieties and output per variety in a closed economy mimicking the features of Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model. Differences in factor endowments across countries determine the pattern of trade between varieties and output per variety, which is indeterminate in a standard single good Dixit-Stiglitz-Krugman model. Later we reflect on wage inequality and unemployment providing some interesting results. |
| Keywords: | Monopolistic Competition,Trade,Wage Inequality,Unemployment |
| JEL: | D43 F11 J31 E24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:911&r= |
| By: | Alexander Trott; Sunil Srinivasa; Douwe van der Wal; Sebastien Haneuse; Stephan Zheng |
| Abstract: | Optimizing economic and public policy is critical to address socioeconomic issues and trade-offs, e.g., improving equality, productivity, or wellness, and poses a complex mechanism design problem. A policy designer needs to consider multiple objectives, policy levers, and behavioral responses from strategic actors who optimize for their individual objectives. Moreover, real-world policies should be explainable and robust to simulation-to-reality gaps, e.g., due to calibration issues. Existing approaches are often limited to a narrow set of policy levers or objectives that are hard to measure, do not yield explicit optimal policies, or do not consider strategic behavior, for example. Hence, it remains challenging to optimize policy in real-world scenarios. Here we show that the AI Economist framework enables effective, flexible, and interpretable policy design using two-level reinforcement learning (RL) and data-driven simulations. We validate our framework on optimizing the stringency of US state policies and Federal subsidies during a pandemic, e.g., COVID-19, using a simulation fitted to real data. We find that log-linear policies trained using RL significantly improve social welfare, based on both public health and economic outcomes, compared to past outcomes. Their behavior can be explained, e.g., well-performing policies respond strongly to changes in recovery and vaccination rates. They are also robust to calibration errors, e.g., infection rates that are over or underestimated. As of yet, real-world policymaking has not seen adoption of machine learning methods at large, including RL and AI-driven simulations. Our results show the potential of AI to guide policy design and improve social welfare amidst the complexity of the real world. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02904&r= |
| By: | Amandha, Azrah Cipta |
| Abstract: | Government Information System is an electronic information system regarding general data information about relevant government agencies that can be accessed freely via the internet. According to the 1945 Constitution, the Government is obliged to provide access to information regarding Regional Government in the form of development information or regional facilities and regional financial information. This is contained in Article 391 paragraph (1) of Law Number 23 of 2014 concerning Regional Government, and Minister of Home Affairs Regulation (Permendagri) Number 70 of 2019 concerning Regional Government Information Systems. |
| Date: | 2021–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:svmun&r= |
| By: | Pahontu, Raluca L. |
| Abstract: | A central challenge in understanding public opinion shifts is identifying whose opinions change. Political economists try to uncover this by exploring voters' economic vulnerability, particularly the relationship between labor-market risk and redistribution preferences. Predominantly, however, such work imputes risk from occupational or sectoral characteristics. Due to within-occupational inequality in exposure to risk, considerable variation remains unexplored. I propose an individual-level, dynamic account of risk inferred from job tenure, contract type, and expectations of job security. These aspects, importantly, account for individual variation in risk and the possibility that one's experience of risk may change across time. The results indicate the usefulness of this approach to risk in understanding changes in social spending preferences. |
| Keywords: | comparative political economy; quantitative methods |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111593&r= |
| By: | Pierre Januard (PHARE - Philosophie, Histoire et Analyse des Représentations Économiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Thomas Aquinas's short text on the activity of merchants in his early work the Commentary on the Sentences is a milestone in the understanding of trade and in the treatment of a deficit of information about the trade's finality and the intention of the merchant. Three levels of risk can thus be distinguished, relating to the licitness of the trade, the conditions of the trading activity, and the remuneration of merchants; and these in turn encounter three types of risk: analytical risks, commercial risks and strategic risks. The treatment of trade activity in the Commentary on the Sentences thus offers a new understanding of later works such as De regno and the Summa theologiae. |
| Keywords: | Thomas Aquinas,scholastics,trade,merchant,just price,risk |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03313255&r= |
| By: | Jed J. Cohen (The Energy Institute at Johannes Kepler University); Levan Elbakidze (Division of Resource Economics and Management and the Center for Innovation in Gas Research and Utilization, West Virginia University); Randall Jackson (Geology and Geography Department and Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs) are financial instruments created by state policies to offer incentives for generating solar energy. In an effort to support in-state solar energy sectors and boost local employment opportunities, some states have closed off their SREC markets to out-of-state solar facilities. We examine the merits of such protectionist policy from the protectionist states perspective. We find that SREC market closure leads to higher in-state SREC prices, greater solar installation, and lower electricity prices. The study illustrates the economic incentives for protecting in-state SREC markets from out-of-state solar energy producers. |
| Keywords: | RPS, Solar Energy, Renewable Energy Credits, Interstate Trade, Protectionism |
| JEL: | H77 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2020–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp19&r= |
| By: | Severin Borenstein; James B. Bushnell |
| Abstract: | Electrification of transportation and buildings to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires massive switching from natural gas and refined petroleum products. All three end-use energy sources are mispriced due in part to the unpriced pollution they emit. Natural gas and electricity utilities also face the classic natural monopoly challenge of recovering fixed costs while maintaining efficient pricing. We study the magnitude of these distortions for electricity, natural gas, and gasoline purchased by residential customers across the continental US. We find that the net distortion in pricing electricity is much greater than for natural gas or gasoline. In most of the country, residential electricity prices are well above social marginal cost (private marginal cost plus unpriced externalities), while in some areas with large shares of coal-fired generation, prices are below SMC. Combining our estimates of marginal price and SMC for each of the fuels with a large survey of California households' energy use, we calculate the distribution of annual fuel costs for space heating, water heating, and electric vehicles under actual pricing versus setting price at SMC. We find that moving prices for all three fuels to equal their SMC would significantly increase the incentive for Californians to switch to electricity for these energy services. |
| JEL: | H23 L51 L71 L94 L95 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29118&r= |
| By: | Luca Benati |
| Abstract: | Evidence from low-frequency regressions for 27 countries since the XVIII century suggests that the relationship between broad money growth and inflation has been mostly one-for-one, and largely invariant to changes in the monetary regime. There is little evidence that the relationship had been weaker under commodity standards than it has been under fiat standards. Only for the period since the mid-1980s, which has seen the introduction of monetary regimes in which inflation is directly targeted, the relationship appears to have materially weakened. Crucially, however, the slope relationship between the trends of money growth and inflation produced by time-varying parameters VARs has been near-uniformly one-for-one for all countries and sample periods, including the one following the end of the Great Inflation. This suggests that, although central banks’ targeting of inflation has weakened its relationship with money growth, time-series methods can still recover the one-for-one longhorizon relationship between the series. There is no evidence that, since WWII, inflation’s low-frequency relationship with credit growth has been stronger than with money growth. The relationship between money growth and nominal interest rates had been non-existent under commodity standards, and it has only appeared under fiat standards. |
| Keywords: | Quantity theory of money; Lucas critique; frequency domain; timevarying parameters VARs. Classification-JEL |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2110&r= |
| By: | Natalie Bau; Gaurav Khanna; Corinne Low; Manisha Shah; Sreyashi Sharmin; Alessandra Voena |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic brought the dual crises of disease and the containment policies designed to mitigate it. Yet, there is little evidence on the impacts of these policies on women, who are likely to be especially vulnerable, in lower-income countries. We conduct a large phone survey and leverage India's geographically-varying containment policies to estimate the association between both the pandemic and its containment policies, and measures of women's well-being, including mental health and food security. On aggregate, the pandemic resulted in dramatic income losses, increases in food insecurity, and declines in female mental health. While potentially crucial to stem the spread of COVID-19 cases, we find that greater prevalence of containment policies is associated with increased food insecurity, particularly for women, and with reduced female mental health. Average containment levels are associated with a 39-40% increase in the likelihood of sadness, depression, and hopelessness among women and with an increase in the likelihood that women feel more worried by 45% of the variable mean. Particularly vulnerable groups of women, those with daughters and those living in female-headed households, experience larger declines in mental health. |
| JEL: | I14 I15 J16 O12 O38 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29121&r= |
| By: | Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay |
| Abstract: | This article introduces a general statistical modeling principle called "Density Sharpening" and applies it to the analysis of discrete count data. The underlying foundation is based on a new theory of nonparametric approximation and smoothing methods for discrete distributions which play a useful role in explaining and uniting a large class of applied statistical methods. The proposed modeling framework is illustrated using several real applications, from seismology to healthcare to physics. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07372&r= |
| By: | Andrés Fernández; Daniel Guzman; Ruy E. Lama; Carlos A. Vegh |
| Abstract: | To explain the fact that government spending and tax policy are procyclical in emerging and developing countries, we develop a model for the joint behavior of optimal tax rates and government spending over the business cycle. Our set-up relies on financial frictions, which have been shown to be critical features of emerging markets, captured by various degrees of asset market incompleteness as well as varying levels of debt-elastic interest rate spreads. We first uncover a novel theoretical result within a simple static framework: incomplete markets can account for procyclical government spending but not necessarily procyclical tax policy. Explaining procyclical tax policy also requires that the ratio of private to public consumption comoves positively with the business cycle, which leads to larger fluctuations in the tax base. We then show that the procyclicality of tax policy holds in a more realistic DSGE model calibrated to emerging markets. Finally, we illustrate how larger financial frictions, which amplify the business cycle through more procyclical fiscal policies, have sizeable Lucas-type welfare costs. |
| JEL: | F41 F44 H21 H30 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29149&r= |
| By: | León, Juan; Guerrero, Gabriela; Cueto, Santiago (Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE)); Glewwe, Paul |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to filling the existing gap in the scarce literature on school effectiveness in secondary education in Peru by addressing the following questions: i) which educational processes within schools are most influential in math and reading comprehension? and in the case of the most effective schools, ii) what is the importance that principals, teachers, and students place on school processes variables in explaining educational outcomes? We use a mixed-method design that follows a sequential explanatory design. First, using the Young Lives secondary school survey in Peru (2017), we estimate a random effects model to explore the effect of teacher and school level variables on math and reading comprehension. Then, we conduct a qualitative case study in two schools identified as high-performance schools (HPS) by the survey, with the aim of explaining the role of school processes variables on educational results. The multivariate analysis shows that among teacher and classroom level variables, feedback provided to students and the satisfaction with his/her relationship with the educational actors were statistically significant. Among school level variables, school principal´s experience, average level of school wealth index, students per classroom and the infrastructure were statistically significant. The analysis of in-depth interviews and focus groups with vice-principals, teachers, and students from the two HPS shows that these two effective schools promote higher student achievement through different policies. At the school level, they have monitoring and constant teacher training policies to improve the quality of teaching. They also have student discipline and teacher collaboration policies to promote a conducive school learning environment. Correspondingly, at the classroom level, these schools are characterized by the quality of their teaching strategies regarding peer-mentoring, feedback and use of materials, and by their positive classroom learning environments based on teachers’ monitoring of students’ progress and teacher-student relations of care and trust. Our results point out the importance of the pedagogical work of the different educational actors inside the school. Educational programs carried out by local and national governments should pay more attention to the dynamics within the school to mitigate the educational inequalities, equalizing upwards the opportunities for children in impoverished public schools. |
| Keywords: | Educación secundaria, Escuela secundaria, Logros académicos, Rendimiento escolar, Secondary education, Secondary school, Academic achievement, Perú, Peru |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gad:doctra:dt114&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Minh-Hoang; La, Viet-Phuong; Ho, Manh-Toan (Thanh Tay University Hanoi); Huyen, Nguyen Thanh Thanh; Le, Tam-Tri |
| Abstract: | Dr. Vuong Quan Hoang (also known as Quan-Hoang Vuong and original Vietnamese name: Vương Quân Hoàng) is one of the most important figures in contemporary Vietnamese social sciences and humanities, especially after 2000. He is the founder of Centre for Interdisciplinary Social Research (Phenikaa University, Hanoi, Vietnam) and Vietnam Chapter of the European Association of Science Editors. Since his first publication in 1997, he has proposed five notable theoretical frameworks and concepts: 1) Serendipity as a strategic advantage, 2) 3D information process of creativity, 3) Mindsponge mechanism, 4) Cultural additivity, and 5) Semi-conducting principle. |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:u7jms&r= |
| By: | Crescenzi, Riccardo; Ganau, Roberto; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | Rising political skepticism on the benefits of global economic integration has increased public scrutiny of the foreign activities of domestic firms in virtually all advanced economies. Decisions to invest in new activities abroad are seen by some commentators as potentially detrimental to domestic employment. We contribute to this debate by scrutinizing the relationship between outward ‘greenfield’ Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and local employment levels. The analysis, at the scale of USA Economic Areas, finds a generally positive link between outward investment and local employment, but with an important range of differences across regions and sectors. Less developed regions benefit the most from the positive returns of outward FDI, and, particularly, from outward FDI if it is undertaken by firms in high-tech manufacturing and services industries. But there is a downside, in the form of increasing intra-regional inequalities between high-skilled and low-skilled workers in these areas. |
| Keywords: | internationalization; outward FDI; employment; economic areas; USA; The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union Horizon 2020 Programme H2020/2014-2020 (Grant Agreement n 639633-MASSIVE-ERC-2014-STG); OUP deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109864&r= |
| By: | Hanno Reuvers; Etienne Wijler |
| Abstract: | We consider sparse estimation of a class of high-dimensional spatio-temporal models. Unlike classical spatial autoregressive models, we do not rely on a predetermined spatial interaction matrix. Instead, under the assumption of sparsity, we estimate the relationships governing both the spatial and temporal dependence in a fully data-driven way by penalizing a set of Yule-Walker equations. While this regularization can be left unstructured, we also propose a customized form of shrinkage to further exploit diagonally structured forms of sparsity that follow intuitively when observations originate from spatial grids such as satellite images. We derive finite sample error bounds for this estimator, as well estimation consistency in an asymptotic framework wherein the sample size and the number of spatial units diverge jointly. A simulation exercise shows strong finite sample performance compared to competing procedures. As an empirical application, we model satellite measured NO2 concentrations in London. Our approach delivers forecast improvements over a competitive benchmark and we discover evidence for strong spatial interactions between sub-regions. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02864&r= |
| By: | Brewer, Mike; Tasseva, Iva |
| Abstract: | We analyse the UK policy response to Covid-19 and its impact on household incomes in the UK in April and May 2020, using microsimulation methods. We estimate that households lost a substantial share of their net income of 6.9% on average. But policies protected household incomes to a substantial degree: compared to the drop in net income, GDP per capita fell by 18.9% between the first and second quarter of 2020. Earnings subsidies (the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme) protected household finances and provided the main insurance mechanism during the crisis. Besides subsidies, Covid-related increases to state benefits, as well as the automatic stabilisers in the tax and benefit system, played an important role in mitigating the income losses. However, analysing the impact of a near-decade of austerity on the UK safety net, we find that, compared to 2011 policies, the 2020 pre-Covid tax-benefit policies would have been less effective in insuring incomes against the shocks. We also assess the potential distributional impact of introducing a Universal Basic Income (UBI) instead of the Covid emergency measures and find that a UBI would have supported the incomes of different vulnerable groups but would have provided less protection to those hit hardest by the labour market shocks. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; coronavirus; earnings subsidies and tax-benefit policies; income distribution; Springer deal |
| JEL: | D31 E24 H24 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110512&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This report summarizes key findings and recommendations from a remote technical assistance (TA) assignment performed by a short-term expert (STX), Mr. Djamel Bouhabel, from January 17 to February 4, 2021, to the General Customs Authority of Iraq (GCA). The main objective of the TA was to advise GCA on the development and effective application of customs assessment processes based on international standards and best practices. |
| Keywords: | Customs valuation audit process; World Bank staff; clearance audit; preferential rule; GCA staff; import goods classification; customs import declaration; Valuation, origin and classification; Tax administration core functions; Imports; Customs procedures; Post-clearance customs audit; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/158&r= |
| By: | Mekonnen, Dawit K.; Abate, Gashaw; Yimam, Seid; Benfica, Rui; Spielman, David J.; Place, Frank |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, International Development, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312925&r= |
| By: | Imane El Ouadghiri (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Remzi Uctum (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to investigate forecast heterogeneity and time variability in the formation of expectations using disaggregated monthly survey data on macroeconomic indicators provided by Bloomberg from June 1998 to August 2017. We show that our panel of forecasters are not rational and are moderately heterogeneous and thus confirm that previously well-established results on asset prices hold for macroeconomic indicators. The estimation of our flexible hybrid forecast model-defined at any time as a combination of the extrapolative, regressive, adaptive and interactive heuristics-using the Bai and Perron (1998) methodology reveals a significant timedependence in the structural model with some inertia in extrapolative and adaptive profiles. Changes in the formation of expectations are triggered mostly by financial shocks, and uncertainty is dealt with by using complex processes in which the fundamentalist component overweighs chartist activity. Forecasters whose models combine different relevant rules and display high temporal flexibility provide the most accurate forecasts. Authorities can then stabilize the domestic markets by encouraging fundamentalists' forecasts through increased transparency policy. |
| Keywords: | dynamic heterogeneity,flexible forecast model,formation of expectations,individual survey data,macroeconomic indicators |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319091&r= |
| By: | Kuhnhenne, Michaela |
| Abstract: | Demografischer Wandel, sozial-ökologische Transformation und Digitalisierung sind nur einige Faktoren, die zu einer Beschleunigung des Wandels in Betrieben führen. Damit Betriebsrät*innen frühzeitig in die Veränderungsprozesse eingreifen und diese mitgestalten können ist eine stetige Weiterentwicklung ihrer Kompetenzen gefragt. In dieser Literaturstudie werden durch die Hans-Böckler-Stiftung geförderte Studien hinsichtlich ihrer Aussagen zu Kompetenzentwicklung, Bildungsmotivation und -beteiligung von Betriebsrät*innen ausgewertet. |
| Keywords: | Betriebsrat,Kompetenzen,Motivation,Weiterbildung |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:224&r= |
| By: | Quagrainie, Kwamena K.; Valle De Souza, Simone; Athnos, April; Etumnu, Chinonso E.; Knudson, William A.; Etumnu, Chinonso E.; Kinnunen, Ronald |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Marketing, Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312681&r= |
| By: | Rimmer, Matthew (Queensland University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Considering recent litigation in the Australian courts, and an inquiry by the Productivity Commission, this paper calls for patent law reform in respect of the right to repair in Australia. It provides an evaluation of the decision of the Full Court of the Federal Court in Calidad Pty Ltd v Seiko Epson Corporation [2019] FCAFC 115 – as well as the High Court of Australia consideration of the matter in Calidad Pty Ltd v Seiko Epson Corporation [2020] HCA 41. It highlights the divergence between the layers of the Australian legal system on the topic of patent law – between the judicial approach of the Federal Court of Australia and the Full Court of the Federal Court of Australia, and the endorsement of the patent exhaustion doctrine by the majority of the High Court of Australia. In light of this litigation, this paper reviews the policy approach taken by the Productivity Commission in respect of patent law, the right to repair, consumer rights, and competition policy. After the considering the findings of the Productivity Commission, it is recommended that there is a need to provide for greater recognition of the right to repair under patent law. It also calls for the use of compulsory licensing, crown use, competition oversight, and consumer law protection to reinforce the right to repair under patent law. In the spirit of modernising Australia’s regime, this paper makes a number of recommendations for patent law reform – particularly in light of 3D printing, additive manufacturing, and digital fabrication. It calls upon the legal system to embody some of the ideals, which have been embedded in the Maker’s Bill of Rights, and the iFixit Repair Manifesto. The larger argument of the paper is that there needs to be a common approach to the right to repair across the various domains of intellectual property – rather than the current fragmentary treatment of the topic. |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9kft4&r= |
| By: | Marcelo A. T. Aragão |
| Abstract: | To mistarget and to mistime the issuance of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) can be detrimental to welfare. This holds even for tentative experiments under controlled conditions since this may prompt unintended expectations by economic agents. To counteract the uncertainty that is inherent in any innovation, academics and central bank researchers have been active in developing models of a prospective economy, or at least of prospective markets, where a fiat currency in digital form coexists. Irrespective of whether such a proposal entails a positive or negative stance, we contend that it is possible to infer from this body of work: opportunities, risks, and policy guidelines they imply (or fail to address). This paper, therefore, is a survey of this model development activity that, we aim to show, results in a better understanding of the economic implications of a CBDC. For this purpose, we have selected and reviewed twenty-nine proposals. I have classified them with respect to motivations, preoccupations, and foundations, observing what they conclude regarding the potential for coexistence with private alternatives and for harm to policy mandates. I have identified knowns, i.e., what models imply, and unknowns, i.e., what models omit or oversimplify. I have found that our analysis can give focus to further research that can steer the ongoing legal and technical design efforts. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:554&r= |
| By: | Brendan Epstein; Miles S. Kimball |
| Abstract: | We develop a theory that focuses on the general equilibrium and long-run macroeconomic consequences of trends in job utility—the process benefits and costs of work. Given secular increases in job utility, work hours per population can remain approximately constant over time even if the income effect of higher wages on labor supply exceeds the substitution effect. In addition, secular improvements in job utility can be substantial relative to welfare gains from ordinary technological progress. These two implications are connected by an equation flowing from optimal hours choices: improvements in job utility that have a significant effect on labor supply tend to have large welfare effects. |
| JEL: | J22 J24 J28 J31 O4 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29041&r= |
| By: | Wolf, Eva; Van Dooren, Wouter (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the relationship between policy conflict and trust-erosion. It concludes that in a context of trust-erosion, practices to deal with conflict may backfire and lead to further conflict escalation. The article draws on an in-depth analysis of 32 interviews with key actors in the conflict over a contested multibillion-euro highway project in Antwerp (Belgium). It concludes that while all actors draw on the policy repertoire of “managing public support” to explain the conflict, their perspectives of what it means for a policy to have public support differ. Practices to “manage public support” that made sense from one perspective, contributed to the erosion of trust from those holding a different perspective, thus further escalating the conflict. Practices intended to end conflict proved to be fatal remedies. |
| Date: | 2021–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z5uxy&r= |
| By: | Charlson, G. |
| Abstract: | A platform holds information on the demographics of its users and wants maximise total surplus. The data generates a probability over which of two products a buyer prefers, with different data segmentations being more or less informative. The platform reveals segmentations of the data to two firms, one popular and one niche, preferring to reveal no information than completely revealing the consumer's type for certain. The platform can improve profits by revealing to both firms a segmentation where the niche firm is relatively popular, but still less popular than the other firm, potentially doing even better by revealing information asymmetrically. The platform has an incentive to provide more granular data in markets in which the niche firm is particularly unpopular or in which broad demographic categories are not particularly revelatory of type, suggesting that the profit associated with big data techniques differs depending on market characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Strategic interaction, network games, interventions, industrial organisation, platforms, hypergraphs |
| JEL: | D40 L10 L40 |
| Date: | 2021–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2159&r= |
| By: | Michal Bauer; Jana Cahlíková; Julie Chytilová; Gérard Roland; Tomas Zelinsky |
| Abstract: | This paper provides experimental evidence showing that members of a majority group systematically shift punishment on innocent members of an ethnic minority. We develop a new incentivized task, the Punishing the Scapegoat Game, to measure how injustice affecting a member of one’s own group shapes punishment of an unrelated bystander (“a scapegoat”). We manipulate the ethnic identity of the scapegoats and study interactions between the majority group and the Roma minority in Slovakia. We find that when no harm is done, there is no evidence of discrimination against the ethnic minority. In contrast, when a member of one’s own group is harmed, the punishment ”passed” on innocent individuals more than doubles when they are from the minority, as compared to when they are from the dominant group. These results illuminate how individualized tensions can be transformed into a group conflict, dragging minorities into conflicts in a way that is completely unrelated to their behavior. |
| JEL: | C93 D74 D91 J15 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29157&r= |
| By: | Dorren, Lars; Van Dooren, Wouter (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | Using ex ante analysis to predict policy outcomes is common practice in the world of infra- structure planning. However, accounts of its uses and merits vary widely. Advisory agencies and government think tanks advocate this practice to prevent cost overruns, short-term decision-making and suboptimal choices. Academic studies on knowledge use, on the other hand, are critical of how knowledge can be used in decision making. Research has found that analyses often have no impact at all on decision outcomes or are mainly conducted to provide decision makers with the confidence to decide rather than with objective facts. In this paper, we use an ethnographic research design to understand how it is possible that the use of ex ante analysis can be depicted in such contradictory ways. We suggest that the substantive content of ex ante analysis plays a limited role in understanding its depictions and uses. Instead, it is the process of conducting an ex ante analysis itself that unfolds in such a manner that the analysis can be interpreted and used in many different and seemingly contradictory ways. In policy processes, ex ante analysis is like a chameleon, figuratively changing its appearance based on its environment. |
| Date: | 2021–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2shq9&r= |
| By: | Dardati, Evangelina (Centro de Estudios Públicos); de Elejalde, Ramiro (Universidad Alberto Hurtado); Giolito, Eugenio (Universidad Alberto Hurtado) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the effect of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) exposure on Emergency Room (ER) visits in Chile. Our identification strategy exploits daily PM 2.5 variation within a hospital-month-year combination. Unlike previous papers, our data allow us to study the impact of high levels of pollution while controlling for avoidance behavior. We find that a one standard deviation increase in PM 2.5 increases respiratory ER visits by 1.4 percent. This effect is positive for all age groups but is stronger for children (less than five years old) and the elderly (more than 65 years old). Moreover, we find that the effects are stronger in geographical areas in which the share of emissions from residential wood burning is more than 75 percent. Finally, our results are robust to instrumenting pollution using wind direction and speed and to controlling for other pollutants. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, PM 2.5, emergency room visits |
| JEL: | I12 I18 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14599&r= |
| By: | Zinsou Nakou (LAED - Laboratoire de recherche Entreprise et Developpement - ESP - École Supérieure Polytechnique de Dakar - UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal]); Serge Francis Simen Nana (ESP - École Supérieure Polytechnique de Dakar - UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal]) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to understand the factors that may explain social responsibility for financial inclusion in Benin's microfinance institutions (MFIs). To achieve this goal, we conducted a comprehensive qualitative study based on semi-structured individual interviews with the managers of 10 MFIs whose data were presented and processed according to thematic content analysis. Our results showed that the leaders of MFIs are aware of CSR, are aware of its existence and seize a symmetrical link between CSR and financial inclusion, and that this link is part of the coordination of behaviors, as well as in the convergence values of the different stakeholders of the institution. Because internal CSR management is seen not as a managerial and organizational constraint that consumes costs and time, but rather as an activity that allows the institution to generate direct and, above all, indirect benefits. Our results suggest that it may not be enough for MFIs to simply engage in CSR. Rather, CSR, perceived as coherent, can inspire positive attitudes and behaviors among leaders. |
| Abstract: | Cette communication se propose de comprendre les facteurs susceptibles d'expliquer la responsabilité sociale en matière d'inclusion financière dans les institutions de microfinance (IMF) béninoises. Pour atteindre cet objectif, nous avons procédé à une étude qualitative à visée compréhensive basée sur des entretiens individuels semi-directifs auprès les dirigeants de 10 IMF dont les données ont été présentées et traitées selon l'analyse de contenu thématique. Nos résultats ont montré que les dirigeants des IMF connaissent la RSE, en sont conscients de son existence et en saisissent un lien symétrique entre la RSE et l'inclusion financière, et que ce lien loge dans la coordination des comportements, ainsi que dans la convergence des valeurs des différentes parties prenantes de l'institution. Car, le management de la RSE en interne est vu non pas comme une contrainte managériale et organisationnelle consommatrice de coûts et de temps, mais plutôt comme une activité permettant à l'institution de dégager des bénéfices directs et surtout indirects. Nos résultats suggèrent qu'il peut ne pas suffire que les IMF s'engagent simplement dans la RSE. C'est plutôt la RSE perçue comme cohérente qui peut inspirer des attitudes et des comportements positifs chez les dirigeants. |
| Keywords: | social inclusion,financial inclusion,microfinance institution,leader,CSR,dirigeant,institution de microfinance,inclusion sociale,inclusion financière,RSE |
| Date: | 2020–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03318798&r= |
| By: | Lane, Nathaniel (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Nations have and will continue to shape their economies through industrial policy. Nevertheless, the empirical literature on these interventions is thin, dwarfed by the attention industrial policies receive from policymakers across the world. In this paper, I discuss the difficulties of empirically studying industrial policy and review how new econometric work is confronting these issues. Through careful research design and attention to institutional detail, I argue that emergent studies are rapidly expanding what we know—and updating what we thought we knew—about these policies. As well, I argue tools from policy evaluation allow us to study the impact of endogenous industrial interventions. This review is a proposal to take industrial policy, along with their complexities, more seriously as objects of inquiry. Doing so requires not only more serious evaluations of past policy but also a reevaluation of past empirical work and consensus. |
| Date: | 2020–01–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tnxg6&r= |
| By: | Faber, Marius (University of Basel); Sarto, Andrés (NYU Stern); Tabellini, Marco (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | Migration has long been considered one of the key mechanisms through which labor markets adjust to economic shocks. In this paper, we analyze the migration response of American workers to two of the most important shocks that hit US manufacturing since the late 1990s – Chinese import competition and the introduction of industrial robots. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure across US local labor markets over time, we show that robots caused a sizable reduction in population size, while Chinese imports did not. We rationalize these results in two steps. First, we provide evidence that negative employment spillovers outside manufacturing, caused by robots but not by Chinese imports, are an important mechanism for the different migration responses triggered by the two shocks. Next, we present a model where workers are geographically mobile and compete with either machines or foreign labor in the completion of tasks. The model highlights that two key dimensions along which the shocks differ – the cost savings they provide and the degree of complementarity between directly and indirectly exposed industries – can explain their disparate employment effects outside manufacturing and, in turn, the differential migration response. |
| Keywords: | migration, employment, technology, trade |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14623&r= |
| By: | Zenker, Frank (Lund University); Witte, Erich H. |
| Abstract: | The development of an empirically adequate theoretical construct for a given phenomenon of interest requires an estimate of the population effect size, aka the true effect. Arriving at this estimate in evidence-based ways presupposes access to robust experimental or observational findings, defined as statistically significant test-results with high statistical power. In the behavioral sciences, however, even the best journals typically publish statistically significant test-results with insufficient statistical power, entailing that such findings have insufficient replication probability. Whereas a robust finding formally requires that an empirical study engage with point-specific H0- and H1-hypotheses, behavioral scientists today typically point-specify only the H0, and instead engage a composite (directional) H1. This mismatch renders the prospects for theory-construction poor, because the population effect size—the very parameter that is to be modelled—regularly remains unknown. This can only keep from developing empirically adequate theoretical constructs. Based on the research program strategy (RPS), a sophisticated integration of Frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference elements, here we claim that theoretical progress requires engaging with point-H1-hypotheses by default. |
| Date: | 2021–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zue4h&r= |
| By: | Cheng, Yuanyuan |
| Abstract: | Purpose: To study the effect of the application of the dimensionality reduction in logical judgment (or logical reasoning, logical inference) programs. Methods: Use enumeration and dimensionality reduction methods to solve logical judgment problems.The effect of the two methods is illustrated in the form of a case study. Results: For logical judgmentproblems, using enumeration method to find the best answer is a comprehensive and fundamental method, but the disadvantage is that it is computationally intensive and computationally inefficient. Compared with the ideas of parallel treatment of known conditions by enumeration method, the application of dimensionality reduction thinking was built on the basis of fully mining information for feature extraction and feature selection. Conclusions: The dimensionality reduction method was applied to the logical judgment problems, and on the basis of fully mining information, the dimensionality reduction principle of statistics were applied to stratify and merge variables with the same or similar characteristics to achieve the purpose of streamlining variables, simplifying logical judgment steps, reducing computation and improving algorithm efficiency. |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:k93fs&r= |
| By: | Nagara, Patria (Universitas Sumatera Barat) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of PDRB growth, education level, and unemployment rate towards poverty level in West Sumatra Province district. This research uses quantitative descriptive methods with multiple regression approaches. This method is to determine and analyze how PDRB growth, education, and unemployment to poverty levels in Sumatra Province. Based on the results of the study showed that (1) the variable PDRB (X1) positively affects the level of poverty in Sumatra Province for 0.003 < 0.05. This indicates that there is a variable influence of PDRB on poverty in Sumatra Province. Then based on the results of the study showed that (2) the level of education (X2) variable has no effect on the level of poverty in Sumatra Province. of 0.029 > 0.05. This indicates that there is no influence between the variable level of education to the poverty level in Sumatra Province. And then based on the results shows that the variable (3) unemployment (X3) affects the poverty of Sumatra Province. of 0.005 < 0.05. This indicates there is a variable influence on unemployment in poverty in Sumatra Province. The results showed that PDRB was positively influential in poverty, education had no positive effect on poverty and unemployment had positive effect on poverty. |
| Date: | 2021–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vcq8e&r= |
| By: | Cogliano, Jonathan F.; Veneziani, Roberto; Yoshihara, Naoki |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theoretical and computational framework to analyse imperialistic international relations and the dynamics of international exploitation. A new measure of unequal exchange across borders - an exploitation intensity index - is proposed which can be used to characterise the structure of imperialistic international relations in the current global economy. It is shown that wealthy nations are net lenders and exploiters, whereas endowment-poor countries are net borrowers and suer from exploitation. Capital ows transfer surplus from countries in the core of the global economy to those in the periphery. However, while international credit markets and wealth inequalities are sucient to generate unequal exchange, they are proved to be insucient for it to persist. Various possible factors are considered, including technical change and varying social norms, that may explain the persistence of international inequalities. |
| Keywords: | International exploitation, imperialism, capital movements, technical change |
| JEL: | B51 D63 C63 F21 F54 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:726&r= |
| By: | Barbara Biasi; Michael S. Dahl; Petra Moser |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the career effects of mental health, focusing on depression, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder (BD). Individual-level registry data from Denmark show that these disorders carry large earnings penalties, ranging from 34 percent for depression and 38 percent for BD to 74 percent for schizophrenia. To investigate the causal effects of mental health on a person’s career, we exploit the approval of lithium as a maintenance treatment for BD in 1976. Baseline estimates compare career outcomes for people with and without access in their 20s, the typical age of onset for BD. These estimates show that access to treatment eliminates one third of the earnings penalty associated with BD and greatly reduces the risks of low or no earnings. Importantly, access to treatment closes more than half of the disability risk associated with BD. |
| JEL: | I12 J23 J24 O31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29031&r= |
| By: | Santiago Hermo; Miika M. Päällysaho; David G. Seim; Jesse M. Shapiro |
| Abstract: | A large literature in cognitive science studies the puzzling "Flynn effect" of rising fluid intelligence (reasoning skill) in rich countries. We develop an economic model in which a cohort's mix of skills is determined by different skills' relative returns in the labor market and by the technology for producing skills. We estimate the model using administrative data from Sweden. Combining data from exams taken at military enlistment with earnings records from the tax register, we document an increase in the relative labor market return to logical reasoning skill as compared to vocabulary knowledge. The estimated model implies that changes in labor market returns explain 36 percent of the measured increase in reasoning skill, and can also explain the decline in knowledge. An original survey of parents, an analysis of trends in school curricula, and an analysis of occupational characteristics show evidence of increasing emphasis on reasoning as compared to knowledge. |
| JEL: | J24 J31 O52 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29135&r= |
| By: | Qiaoyi Chen; Zhao Chen; Zhikuo Liu; Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato; Daniel Xu |
| Abstract: | We study a prominent energy regulation affecting large Chinese manufacturers that are part of broader conglomerates. Using detailed firm-level data and difference-in-differences research designs, we show that regulated firms cut output and shifted production to unregulated firms in the same conglomerate instead of improving their energy efficiency. Conglomerate spillovers account for 40% of the output loss of regulated firms and substantially reduce aggregate energy savings. Using a structural model, we show that alternative polices that use public information on business networks could lower the shadow cost of the regulation by more than 40% and increase aggregate energy savings by 10%. |
| JEL: | H23 L51 O44 Q48 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29066&r= |
| By: | Alice Henriques Volz; Jeffrey P. Thompson |
| Abstract: | Most research measuring disparities in wealth by race relies on data that exclude resources that are disproportionately important to low-wealth and non-white families, namely defined benefit (DB) pensions and Social Security. This paper finds that once these resources are included, disparities in wealth between white families and Black and Hispanic families are substantially smaller and that they are not rising over time. The powerful equalizing roles of DB pensions and Social Security highlighted here are further motivation for maintaining their fiscal health. This paper also presents results on the wealth of Asian families—typically excluded from most research due to limited sample sizes. Including Asian families is important, however, because they are a rapidly growing segment of the population and they have become the highest-wealth racial group in the United States. |
| Keywords: | inequality; race; Social Security; pensions; saving; wealth |
| JEL: | D14 D31 D63 E21 G51 H55 H75 I31 J15 J18 J32 |
| Date: | 2021–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcq:92970&r= |
| By: | Xu Lang; Zaifu Yang |
| Abstract: | We examine the implementation of reduced-form allocation rules that assign multiple indivisible objects to many agents, with incomplete information and distributional constraints across objects and agents. To obtain implementability results, we adopt a lift-and-project approach, which enables us to and a general condition called total unimodularity, a well-recognized class of matrices with simple entries of -1, 0, or 1. This condition yields several new and general characterization results including those on hierarchies, bihierarchies, and consecutiveness. Our model and results extend and unify many well-known ones considerably, find new applications, and also apply to both ordinal and cardinal preferences. |
| Keywords: | Implementation, Reduced-form rules, Indivisible goods, Distributional constraints, Total unimodularity, Incomplete information. |
| JEL: | D44 C65 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:21/05&r= |
| By: | Annika Camehl; Malte Rieth |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately, cases after one week, and deaths after three weeks. Non-pharmaceutical interventions explain half of the variation in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. These flattened the pandemic curve, while deepening the global mobility recession. The policy tradeoff is 1 p.p. less mobility per day for 9% fewer deaths after two months. |
| Keywords: | Epidemics, general equilibrium, non-pharmaceutical interventions, structural vector autoregressions, coronavirus, Bayesian analysis, panel data |
| JEL: | C32 E32 I18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1954&r= |
| By: | Hannah Seidl; Fabian Seyrich |
| Abstract: | In HANK, we show that fiscal policy is an appropriate macroeconomic stabilization tool at the ZLB. Fiscal policy achieves the same macroeconomic aggregates and the same welfare as hypothetically unconstrained monetary policy by replicating its transmission mechanism. Consumption taxes and labor taxes replicate the effects of monetary policy through the intertemporal substitution channel. Debt-financed lumpsum transfers and a permanent increase in the government debt level replicate the effects of monetary policy through the redistribution channel. |
| Keywords: | Unconventional fiscal policy, heterogeneous agents, incomplete markets, liquidity trap, sticky prices |
| JEL: | E12 E21 E24 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1953&r= |
| By: | Jan Matas; Jan Posp\'i\v{s}il |
| Abstract: | In this paper we perform robustness and sensitivity analysis of several continuous-time rough Volterra stochastic volatility models with respect to the process of market calibration. Robustness is understood in the sense of sensitivity to changes in the option data structure. The latter analyses then should validate the hypothesis on importance of the roughness in the volatility process dynamics. Empirical study is performed on a data set of Apple Inc. equity options traded in four different days in April and May 2015. In particular, the results for RFSV, rBergomi and aRFSV models are provided. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12462&r= |
| By: | Alan L. Lewis; Dan Pirjol |
| Abstract: | We study the convergence properties of the short maturity expansion of option prices in the uncorrelated log-normal ($\beta=1$) SABR model. In this model the option time-value can be represented as an integral of the form $V(T) = \int_{0}^\infty e^{-\frac{u^2}{2T}} g(u) du$ with $g(u)$ a ``payoff function'' which is given by an integral over the McKean kernel $G(s,t)$. We study the analyticity properties of the function $g(u)$ in the complex $u$-plane and show that it is holomorphic in the strip $|\Im(u) | 0$). In a certain limit which can be defined either as the large volatility limit $\sigma_0\to \infty$ at fixed $\omega=1$, or the small vol-of-vol limit $\omega\to 0$ limit at fixed $\omega\sigma_0$, the short maturity $T$-expansion for the implied volatility has a finite convergence radius $T_c = \frac{1.32}{\omega\sigma_0}$. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12439&r= |
| By: | Tugce Karatas; Federico Klinkert; Ali Hirsa |
| Abstract: | Institutional investors have been increasing the allocation of the illiquid alternative assets such as private equity funds in their portfolios, yet there exists a very limited literature on cash flow forecasting of illiquid alternative assets. The net cash flow of private equity funds typically follow a J-curve pattern, however the timing and the size of the contributions and distributions depend on the investment opportunities. In this paper, we develop a benchmark model and present two novel approaches (direct vs. indirect) to predict the cash flows of private equity funds. We introduce a sliding window approach to apply on our cash flow data because different vintage year funds contain different lengths of cash flow information. We then pass the data to an LSTM/ GRU model to predict the future cash flows either directly or indirectly (based on the benchmark model). We further integrate macroeconomic indicators into our data, which allows us to consider the impact of market environment on cash flows and to apply stress testing. Our results indicate that the direct model is easier to implement compared to the benchmark model and the indirect model, but still the predicted cash flows align better with the actual cash flows. We also show that macroeconomic variables improve the performance of the direct model whereas the impact is not obvious on the indirect model. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02853&r= |
| By: | Kuhn, Peter J. (University of California, Santa Barbara); Shen, Kailing (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | When employers' explicit gender requests were unexpectedly removed from a Chinese job board overnight, pools of successful applicants became more integrated: women's (men's) share of call-backs to jobs that had requested men (women) rose by 63 (146) percent. The removal 'worked' in this sense because it generated a large increase in gender-mismatched applications, and because those applications were treated surprisingly well by employers. The removal had little or no effect on aggregate matching frictions. The job titles that were integrated however, were not the most gendered ones, and were disproportionately lower-wage jobs. |
| Keywords: | gender, recruiting, job search, gender segregation, discrimination |
| JEL: | J16 J63 J71 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14618&r= |
| By: | Lee, Yuanyao; Kent, Jeffery; Shi, Rui; Hudiburg, Tara; Guest, Jeremy; Khanna, Madhu |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312732&r= |
| By: | Gapeev, Pavel V. |
| Abstract: | We present analytic solutions to some optimal stopping problems for the running minimum of a geometric Brownian motion with exponential positive discounting rates. The proof is based on the reduction of the original problems to the associated free-boundary problems and the solution of the latter problems by means of the smooth-fit and normal-reflection conditions. We show that the optimal stopping boundaries are determined as the minimal solutions of certain first-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The obtained results are related to the valuation of perpetual dual American lookback options with fixed and floating strikes in the Black-Merton-Scholes model from the point of view of short sellers. |
| Keywords: | a change-of-variable formula with local time on surfaces; Brownian motion; exponential positive discounting rate; free-boundary problem; optimal stopping problem; running minimum process |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:105849&r= |
| By: | Guillaume Compain (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Alexandre Guttmann (USPN UP13 UFR SC - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - UFR des Sciences de la communication - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Cynthia Srnec (Université Paris Saclay (COmUE), LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School) |
| Abstract: | Open Food Network (OFN) est un réseau international fondé autour d'un outil logiciel libre qui peut se définir comme un facilitateur de circuits courts au service du développement local et autonome des producteurs et des consommateurs. Il développe un logiciel d'aide à l'organisation de circuits courts - principalement alimentaires - et fournit également diverses prestations telles que des formations, des études ou de l'accompagnement. Ses principaux membres et usagers sont des producteurs et des distributeurs (groupements d'achats, coopératives de consommateurs, entreprises de distribution, AMAP) du secteur agro-alimentaire. Open Food Network fournit différents services informatiques à ces opérateurs de circuits courts tels qu'une plateforme de réservation et d'achat de produits pour les consommateurs finaux, des outils de gestion des stocks, de facturation. Le logiciel est développé en code Ruby sous licence GNU Affero General Public License, ce qui autorise sa libre utilisation et son amélioration à la condition de republier systématiquement les changements réalisés. Open Food France est l'instance française d'Open Food Network. Constituée en association, elle est chargée de promouvoir les circuits courts ainsi que l'utilisation du logiciel Open Food sur le territoire français. Elle agit aussi en tant qu'interface avec l'équipe de développement internationale. Elle est étroitement liée à la coopérative CoopCircuits, créée début 2020, qui fournit des prestations commerciales autour de l'utilisation de la plateforme. La monographie d'Open Food France a été réalisée dans le cadre du programme de recherche TAPAS,qui vise à approfondir la distinction entre les « entreprises plateformes » et les plateformes dites « collaboratives » ou « alternatives ». Alors que les premières se caractérisent par une gouvernance verticale et l'appropriation de l'essentiel de la valeur créée par le gestionnaire de la plateforme, les plateformes alternatives s'organisent de manière plus horizontale et répartissent des faisceaux de droits sur les ressources créées, selon la logique de partage des communs. Elles dessinent un champ susceptible de s'émanciper des principes purement marchands afin de mieux répondre à des impératifs de soutenabilité sociale et environnementale, en mobilisant une pluralité de principes économiques et en créant des articulations avec les initiatives des communs numériques et de l'économie sociale et solidaire. |
| Keywords: | Plateforme substantive,TAPAS,Economie substantive,Plateforme alternative,Economie collaborative |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-03319087&r= |
| By: | Andreeva, Andriyana; Yolova, Galina |
| Abstract: | The report examines the impact of the new Industrial Revolution on the labour-law relationship in the sphere of employment in the agriculture. After examination and classification of the factors, having impact on the employed in this sector the authors motivate the necessity of re-thinking of the measures for involvement of the workers and employees in the sector of agriculture. |
| Keywords: | working power; agriculture; employment; normative measures; industrial revolution |
| JEL: | K31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109192&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Babcock University, Nigeria); Abayomi T. Onanuga (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Ibrahim A. Odusanya (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the benefits of financial integrations in four of Africa regional trade blocs: COMESA, ECCAS, CEN-SAD and ECOWAS. We regress de-jure and de-facto indices of financial integration on growth outcome using the dynamic system generalised method of moment and pooled mean group estimation procedure. Findings revealed that total foreign asset and liabilities and foreign liabilities as a percentage of GDP are inversely related to growth outcomes in COMESA. In CEN-SAD, we found that foreign liabilities as a percentage of GDP hurts growth. In ECCAS, growth-financial integration relationship showed that foreign liabilities as a percentage of GDP inhibit real per capita GDP in the long run. In ECOWAS, foreign liabilities as a percentage of GDP is inversely related to real per capita GDP in the long run. Policy implications of our findings were discussed. |
| Keywords: | Financial Integration; Economic Growth; system GMM; Pooled Mean Group; Regional Trade Bloc; Africa |
| JEL: | F36 F43 O47 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/052&r= |
| By: | Zinsou Nakou (ESP - École Supérieure Polytechnique de Dakar - UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal]); Serge Francis Simen Nana (ESP - École Supérieure Polytechnique de Dakar - UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal]) |
| Abstract: | The appropriation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) through the innovation of managers in small and medium-sized Beninese enterprises has been the subject of a thematic content analysis whose perspective is inspired by a qualitative methodology aimed at understanding. The data collected emanate from semi-structured interviews carried out on the basis of an interview guide drawn up and sent to a sample made up of 25 managers of 15 SMEs and working in various sectors of activity. The processing of this data was assisted by MAXQDA software and produced reliable results revealing a very close relationship between CSR and innovation. Likewise, taking CSR into account in process innovations focuses on finding solutions to reduce the environmental footprint. The results also revealed that the location of the SME derives the socio-economic context and the culture of the area which can in turn influence its behavior in terms of CSR. Also, the constraints that SMEs face are economic and technical, then digital helps interviewed managers to take into account the environmental aspect of CSR by playing the role of facilitator to document/quantify the aspects. CSR of innovation (means of monitoring). |
| Abstract: | L'appropriation de la responsabilité sociale des entreprises (RSE) par l'innovation des dirigeants dans les petites et moyennes entreprises béninoises a fait l'objet d'une analyse de contenu thématique dont la perspective s'inspire d'une méthodologie qualitative à visée compréhensive. Les données recueillies émanent d'entretiens semi-directifs réalisés sur la base d'un guide d'entretiens établi et adressé à un échantillon constitué de 25 dirigeants de 15 PME et exerçant dans des secteurs d'activités variés. Le traitement de ces données a été assisté par le logiciel MAXQDA et a produit des résultats fiables révélateurs d'une relation très étroite entre la RSE et l'innovation. De même, la prise en compte de la RSE dans les innovations de procédé porte sur la recherche de solutions pour réduire l'empreinte environnementale. Les résultats ont également révélé que de la localisation de la PME découlent le contexte socioéconomique et la culture du milieu qui peuvent à leur tour influencer son comportement en matière de RSE. Aussi, les contraintes auxquelles sont-elles confrontées les PME sont d'ordre économique et d'ordre technique puis le digital aide les dirigeants interviewés à prendre en compte le volet environnemental de la RSE en jouant un rôle de facilitateur pour documenter/quantifier les aspects RSE de l'innovation (moyen de monitoring). |
| Keywords: | managers,SMEs,thematic content analysis,CSR,analyse de contenu thématique,dirigeants,PME,innovation,RSE |
| Date: | 2020–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03318797&r= |
| By: | Gordon Dahl; Runjing Lu; William Mullins |
| Abstract: | Changes in political leadership drive large changes in economic optimism. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties: a 1.1 to 2.6 percentage point difference in annual births, depending on the intensity of partisanship. Hispanics, a group targeted by Trump, see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites. Further, following Trump pre-election campaign visits, relative Hispanic fertility declines. |
| JEL: | D72 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29058&r= |
| By: | Quentin Plantec (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pascal Le Masson (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benoit Weil (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2021–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03278662&r= |
| By: | Elizabeth Doran; Nikki Aikens; Lizabeth Malone; Jeff Harrington; Judy Cannon |
| Abstract: | This research brief uses nationally representative data from the Head Start Family and Child Experiences Survey (FACES 2019) to understand the prevalence of material hardships, financial strain, and social supports among parents with children in Head Start. |
| Keywords: | Head Start, FACES, early care and education, material hardship, financial strain, social support |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:ca0d3ac3043a4048b06f5023c3e4aeab&r= |
| By: | Herszenhut, Daniel; Pereira, Rafael H. M.; da Silva Portugal, Licinio; de Sousa Oliveira, Matheus Henrique |
| Abstract: | Transport equity analyses are often informed by accessibility estimates based solely on travel time impedance, ignoring other elements that might hinder access to activities, such as the monetary cost of a trip. This paper examines how and to what extent simultaneously incorporating both time and monetary costs into accessibility measures may impact transport equity assessment. We calculate job accessibility by transit in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, using cumulative opportunity measures under distinct combinations of temporal and monetary thresholds, and compare how inequality levels vary across different scenarios. We find that the most common research practice of disregarding monetary costs tends to overestimate accessibility levels. However, stricter monetary constraints do not necessarily result in less equitable scenarios. How accessibility inequality is affected by monetary costs is highly dependent on what combinations of temporal and monetary cut-offs are considered in the analysis. In the case of Rio, opting for lower monetary thresholds when looking at shorter trips leads to inequality levels lower than those found in the no monetary threshold scenario, but results in higher inequality levels when allowing for longer trips. We find that the impact of monetary costs on transport equity analyses depend on a complex interaction between fare policies, the spatial organisation and operational characteristics of transit systems, and the spatial co-distribution of jobs and residential locations. The paper thus highlights that conclusions and policy recommendations derived from transport equity analyses can be affected in non-intuitive ways by the interplay between temporal and monetary constraints. Future research should investigate how different combinations of travel time and monetary costs thresholds affect equity analyses in different contexts. |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:e3tac&r= |
| By: | Guillaume Compain (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, IRISSO - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences Sociales - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Alexandre Guttmann (USPN UP13 UFR SC - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - UFR des Sciences de la communication - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Cynthia Srnec (Université Paris Saclay (COmUE), LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School) |
| Abstract: | Open Food Network (OFN) est un réseau international fondé autour d'un outil logiciel libre qui peut se définir comme un facilitateur de circuits courts au service du développement local et autonome des producteurs et des consommateurs. Il développe un logiciel d'aide à l'organisation de circuits courts - principalement alimentaires - et fournit également diverses prestations telles que des formations, des études ou de l'accompagnement. Ses principaux membres et usagers sont des producteurs et des distributeurs (groupements d'achats, coopératives de consommateurs, entreprises de distribution, AMAP) du secteur agro-alimentaire. Open Food Network fournit différents services informatiques à ces opérateurs de circuits courts tels qu'une plateforme de réservation et d'achat de produits pour les consommateurs finaux, des outils de gestion des stocks, de facturation. Le logiciel est développé en code Ruby sous licence GNU Affero General Public License, ce qui autorise sa libre utilisation et son amélioration à la condition de republier systématiquement les changements réalisés. Open Food France est l'instance française d'Open Food Network. Constituée en association, elle est chargée de promouvoir les circuits courts ainsi que l'utilisation du logiciel Open Food sur le territoire français. Elle agit aussi en tant qu'interface avec l'équipe de développement internationale. Elle est étroitement liée à la coopérative CoopCircuits, créée début 2020, qui fournit des prestations commerciales autour de l'utilisation de la plateforme. La monographie d'Open Food France a été réalisée dans le cadre du programme de recherche TAPAS,qui vise à approfondir la distinction entre les « entreprises plateformes » et les plateformes dites « collaboratives » ou « alternatives ». Alors que les premières se caractérisent par une gouvernance verticale et l'appropriation de l'essentiel de la valeur créée par le gestionnaire de la plateforme, les plateformes alternatives s'organisent de manière plus horizontale et répartissent des faisceaux de droits sur les ressources créées, selon la logique de partage des communs. Elles dessinent un champ susceptible de s'émanciper des principes purement marchands afin de mieux répondre à des impératifs de soutenabilité sociale et environnementale, en mobilisant une pluralité de principes économiques et en créant des articulations avec les initiatives des communs numériques et de l'économie sociale et solidaire. |
| Keywords: | Plateforme substantive,TAPAS,Economie substantive,Plateforme alternative,Economie collaborative |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03319087&r= |
| By: | Klaus Bogenberger; Philipp Blum; Florian Dandl; Lisa-Sophie Hamm; Allister Loder; Patrick Malcom; Martin Margreiter; Natalie Sautter |
| Abstract: | The MobilityCoin is a new, all-encompassing currency for the management of the multimodal urban transportation system. MobilityCoins includes and replaces various existing transport policy instruments while also incentivizing a shift to more sustainable modes as well as empowering the public to vote for infrastructure measures. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13441&r= |
| By: | María Fernanda Bernal (UDI - Universidad de Investigación y Desarrollo); Brayam Silvestre Toloza Monsalve (UDI - Universidad de Investigación y Desarrollo) |
| Abstract: | This degree project was developed for a restaurant in Santander in the city of Bucaramanga, dedicated to the preparation and expenditure of à la carte food and menu of the day for special dates and whose ideal is to seek an opportunity to improve management and Inventory control due to the fact that this process was carried out empirically. The purpose of this proposal is to implement a model for calculating the optimal level of inventory in purchases of raw materials and supplies, where qualitative and quantitative non-experimental cross-sectional and descriptive information was collected, through interviews with employees. of the company, checklists, and visits to the facilities, which will look for the shortcomings that were presented to solve the inventory management process, ending with the implementation of a materials requirement planning simulator - MRP and the characteristics of the design of procedures manual for access to the simulator. |
| Abstract: | El presente proyecto de grado se desarrolló para un restaurante en Santander de la ciudad de Bucaramanga, dedicada a la preparación y expendio de alimentos a la carta y menú del día para fechas especiales y cuyo ideal consiste en buscar una oportunidad de mejora en la gestión y control de inventarios debido a que este proceso se realizaba de forma empírica. El fin de esta propuesta consiste en implementar un modelo para el cálculo del nivel óptimo de inventario en compras de materias primas e insumos, donde inicialmente se recaudó información cualitativa y cuantitativa no experimental de corte transversal y de alcance descriptivo, por medio de entrevistas a los empleados de la empresa, listas de chequeo y visitas a las instalaciones, lo que permitió detectar las falencias que se presentaban para dar solución en el proceso de gestión de inventarios, finalizando con la implementación de un simulador de planeación de requerimiento de materiales – MRP y las características del diseño de un manual de procedimientos para el acceso al simulador. |
| Keywords: | Inventories,improvement,simulator,requirement,management,optimum,Inventarios,mejoramiento,simulador,requerimiento,gestión,óptimo |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03273173&r= |
| By: | R. Andrew Butters; Jackson Dorsey; Gautam Gowrisankaran |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic competitive equilibrium model of battery adoption and operations to evaluate the social value and adoption trajectory of utility-scale batteries and examine policy counterfactuals. The first battery unit breaks even in 2027 when renewable energy share reaches 52% and expected capital costs are $259/kWh. While the competitive market will install 10 MWh by 2030, competitive adoption does not reach 5,000 MWh until 2043 because the marginal value of investment sharply declines in aggregate capacity. California's 1,300 MW battery mandate implies subsidies of 49% and creates deadweight losses of $433 million relative to a competitive battery market. |
| JEL: | L94 Q40 Q48 Q55 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29133&r= |
| By: | Jianchoun Dou (Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, China) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a novel mechanism to explain the long-term economic and demographic evolution from the Malthusian stage to the modern stage. In the model, the progress in human history is characterized by not only technological advances but also the expansion of variety of goods. The technological progress, which enhances productivity, is in favor of population growth. Meanwhile, the growth of variety that expands consumption sets tends to reduce fertility. The change of fertility finally depends on the relative growth rate of these two kinds of innovations. With the help of some hypotheses that correspond to the stylized facts in the history of science and technology, the model predicts an evolutional pattern of technology and fertility that is consistent with unified growth theory. |
| Keywords: | Variety, Fertility, Economic growth, Innovations |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N3 |
| Date: | 2021–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2021020&r= |
| By: | Rabah Arezki; Ana Margarida Fernandes; Federico Merchán; Ha Nguyen; Tristan Reed |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effect of natural resource dependence on market concentration of imports. Using a new panel database for importing firms in developing and emerging market economies, the paper shows that higher natural resource dependence is associated with larger market concentration of imports and with higher tariffs. The effect on the concentration of imports is found to be more pronounced for exporters of ‘point-based’ resources, imports of primary and consumption goods than for capital goods and is associated with higher domestic prices and lower consumption expenditure. Results suggest a novel channel for the resource curse stemming from the “monopolization” of imports. |
| Keywords: | imports, market concentration, natural resources, resource curse |
| JEL: | D20 F10 L10 O10 Q00 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9254&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Babcock University, Nigeria); Abayomi T. Onanuga (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria); Ibrahim A. Odusanya (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the benefits of financial integrations in four of Africa regional trade blocs: COMESA, ECCAS, CEN-SAD and ECOWAS. We regress de-jure and de-facto indices of financial integration on growth outcome using the dynamic system generalised method of moment and pooled mean group estimation procedure. Findings revealed that total foreign asset and liabilities and foreign liabilities as a percentage of GDP are inversely related to growth outcomes in COMESA. In CEN-SAD, we found that foreign liabilities as a percentage of GDP hurts growth. In ECCAS, growth-financial integration relationship showed that foreign liabilities as a percentage of GDP inhibit real per capita GDP in the long run. In ECOWAS, foreign liabilities as a percentage of GDP is inversely related to real per capita GDP in the long run. Policy implications of our findings were discussed. |
| Keywords: | Financial Integration; Economic Growth; system GMM; Pooled Mean Group; Regional Trade Bloc; Africa |
| JEL: | F36 F43 O47 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/052&r= |
| By: | Arye Hillman; Ngo Van Long |
| Abstract: | Immigration policies in western democracies have often been contrary to the policies predicted by the mainstream theory of international economics. In particular, political parties that, according to economic theory, should adopt policies beneficial for lower-income voter-constituencies, have not protected workers from labor-market competition or from a fiscal burden of financing welfare-dependent immigrants. We explain the contradiction by accounting for immigrants as future voters. We identify a political principal-agent problem based on ego-rents from political office. Our theory predicts voter defection from worker-supported political-establishment parties to new-entrant anti-immigration political candidates and parties. We give a hearing to alternative interpretations of the evidence. Les politiques d'immigration dans les démocraties occidentales ont souvent été contraires aux politiques prédites par la théorie dominante de l'économie internationale. En particulier, les partis politiques qui, selon la théorie économique, devraient adopter des politiques favorables aux électeurs à faible revenu, n'ont pas protégé les travailleurs de la concurrence sur le marché du travail ou du fardeau fiscal du financement des immigrés dépendants de l'aide sociale. Nous expliquons la contradiction en considérant les immigrés comme futurs électeurs. Nous identifions un problème politique principal-agent basé sur les rentes de l'ego des fonctions politiques. Notre théorie prédit la défection des électeurs des partis soutenus par les travailleurs vers les nouveaux candidats et partis politiques anti-immigration. Nous donnons une audience aux interprétations alternatives. |
| Keywords: | International migration,labor-market adjustment,immigrant welfare dependency,immigration amnesties,political entry barriers,multiculturalism,ethics of migration,exceptionalism, Migration internationale,ajustement du marché du travail,dépendance à l'aide sociale des immigrés,amnisties de l'immigration,barrières politiques à l'entrée,multiculturalisme,éthique de la migration,exceptionnalisme |
| JEL: | F22 F66 H53 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2021s-24&r= |
| By: | Liu, Jing (University of Texas at Austin); Hayes, Michael S. (Rutgers University); Gershenson, Seth (American University) |
| Abstract: | We use novel data on disciplinary referrals, including those that do not lead to suspensions, to better understand the origins of racial disparities in exclusionary discipline. We find significant differences between Black and white students in both referral rates and the rate at which referrals convert to suspensions. An infraction fixed-effects research design that compares the disciplinary outcomes of white and non-white students who were involved in the same multi-student incident identifies systematic racial biases in sentencing decisions. On both the intensive and extensive margins, minoritized students receive harsher sentences than their white co-conspirators. This result is driven by high school infractions and applies to all infraction types. Reducing racial disparities in exclusionary discipline will require addressing underlying gaps in disciplinary referrals and the systematic biases that appear in the adjudication process. |
| Keywords: | exclusionary discipline, intentional discrimination, office referrals |
| JEL: | I2 J7 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14619&r= |
| By: | Bakdash, Jonathan Z (U.S. Army Research Laboratory); Marusich, Laura Ranee; Kenworthy, Jared; Twedt, Elyssa (St. Lawrence University); Zaroukian, Erin |
| Abstract: | Whether in meta-analysis or single experiments, selecting results based on statistical significance leads to overestimated effect sizes, impeding falsification. We critique a quantitative synthesis that used significance to score and select previously published effects for situation awareness-performance associations (Endsley, 2019). How much does selection using statistical significance quantitatively impact results in a meta-analytic context? We evaluate and compare results using significance-filtered effects versus analyses with all effects as-reported. Endsley reported high predictiveness scores and large positive mean correlations but used atypical methods: the hypothesis was used to select papers and effects. Papers were assigned the maximum predictiveness scores if they contained at-least-one significant effect, yet most papers reported multiple effects, and the number of non-significant effects did not impact the score. Thus, the predictiveness score was rarely less than the maximum. In addition, only significant effects were included in Endsley’s quantitative synthesis. Filtering excluded half of all reported effects, with guaranteed minimum effect sizes based on sample size. Results for filtered compared to as-reported effects clearly diverged. Compared to the mean of as-reported effects, the filtered mean was overestimated by 56%. Furthermore, 92% (or 222 out of 241) of the as-reported effects were below the mean of filtered effects. We conclude that outcome-dependent selection of effects is circular, predetermining results and running contrary to the purpose of meta-analysis. Instead of using significance to score and filter effects, meta-analyses should follow established research practices. |
| Date: | 2020–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:metaar:zgha6&r= |
| By: | Sugata Marjit; Biswajit Mandal |
| Abstract: | In this paper we revisit the influential theory of monopolistic competition and optimum product variety as developed by Dixit and Stiglitz (1977) with applications in international trade by Krugman (1979,1980), by modeling fixed and variable costs of production in terms of underlying use of skilled and unskilled labor in a single good model. This is different from earlier work on multi sector variant of Krugman cum Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model such as Helpman (1981) and others. In our structure factor endowment and factor intensities determine both number of varieties and output per variety in a closed economy mimicking the features of Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model. Differences in factor endowments across countries determine the pattern of trade between varieties and output per variety, which is indeterminate in a standard single good Dixit-Stiglitz-Krugman model. Later we reflect on wage inequality and unemployment providing some interesting results. |
| Keywords: | monopolistic competition, trade, wage inequality, unemployment |
| JEL: | D43 F10 J31 F24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9256&r= |
| By: | Bertrand Garbinti (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Frédérique Savignac (Banque de france - Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the intergenerational correlation in homeownership status between two generations for cohorts covering the 20th century. First, we find higher intergenerational correlation in France compared to previous results obtained for the U.K. for similar cohorts. Second, the intergenerational correlation is increasing across cohorts, with a relatively stable probability of being a homeowner for children of homeowners over time, and a decreasing probability for children whose parents were not homeowners. Third, the effect of parents' tenure status is persistent over the children's life cycle. Fourth, when isolating two subpopulations based on the receipt of intergenerational transfers, we find significant intergenerational correlation in tenure status for children who did not receive any gift or inheritance, as well as for children who received intergenerational transfers, suggesting that other factors such as intergenerational income correlation or the transmission of preferences might also explain this intergenerational correlation. |
| Keywords: | housing,intergenerational wealth mobility,cohorts G51,J62,R21 |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03307589&r= |
| By: | Zhaonan Qu; Ruoxuan Xiong; Jizhou Liu; Guido Imbens |
| Abstract: | In many observational studies in social science and medical applications, subjects or individuals are connected, and one unit's treatment and attributes may affect another unit's treatment and outcome, violating the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) and resulting in interference. To enable feasible inference, many previous works assume the ``exchangeability'' of interfering units, under which the effect of interference is captured by the number or ratio of treated neighbors. However, in many applications with distinctive units, interference is heterogeneous. In this paper, we focus on the partial interference setting, and restrict units to be exchangeable conditional on observable characteristics. Under this framework, we propose generalized augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimators for general causal estimands that include direct treatment effects and spillover effects. We show that they are consistent, asymptotically normal, semiparametric efficient, and robust to heterogeneous interference as well as model misspecifications. We also apply our method to the Add Health dataset and find that smoking behavior exhibits interference on academic outcomes. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12420&r= |
| By: | Andrade Philippe,; Galí Jordi,; Le Bihan Hervé,; Matheron Julien. |
| Abstract: | We address this question using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the Euro Area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state real interest rate, r*, increases the probability of hitting the lower bound constraint, which entails significant welfare costs and warrants an adjustment of the monetary policy strategy. Under an unchanged monetary policy rule, an increase in the inflation target of eight tenth the size of the drop in the real natural rate of interest is warranted. Absent an increase in the inflation target, and assuming the effective lower bound prevents the ECB from implementing more aggressive negative interest rate policies, adjusting the monetary strategy requires considering alternative instruments or policy rules, such as committing to make-up for recent, below-target inflation realizations. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Target; Effective Lower Bound; Monetary Policy Strategy; Euro Area. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:811&r= |
| By: | M. Hashem Pesaran; Yimeng Xie |
| Abstract: | In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2021) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection and propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak, and proposes a simple bias-corrected CD test, labelled CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically normal, irrespective of whether the latent factors are weak or strong. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regressions with latent factors. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size and satisfactory power for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR’s test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and have low power against spatial network alternatives. The use of the CD* test is illustrated with two empirical applications from the literature. |
| Keywords: | latent factor models, strong and weak factors, error cross-sectional dependence, spatial and network alternatives |
| JEL: | C18 C23 C55 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9234&r= |
| By: | Hosseinzadeh, Aryan; Baghbani, Asiye |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, enhancing the share of walking in individuals’ daily trips has become a priority for transportation policymakers, urban planners and public health researchers as an interdisciplinary area. In this regard, determining influential factors on walking has become a matter of contention to move toward a sustainable mode of transportation. This study investigates the impact of the influencing factors on the share of walking in trip generation from/to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) of a city across four trip purposes. In this study, individuals’ trip information for four trip purposes has been tested in order to detect influencing factors on walking trip generation based on 112 TAZs for the city of Rasht, Iran. According to the results, density and design are found to be more influential for produced walking trips and diversity is shown to be more effective for attracted walking trips. |
| Keywords: | walking, built environment, trip generation, transportation network design, population density, land use diversity |
| JEL: | C1 C10 C18 R0 R41 |
| Date: | 2020–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109025&r= |
| By: | Greene, Joshua; Stack Whitney, Kaitlin; Korfmacher, Karl |
| Abstract: | As populations and the total area of impervious surfaces continue to grow in developed areas, planners and policy makers must consider how local ecological resources can be utilized to meet the needs and develop climate resilient and sustainable cities. Urban green spaces (UGS) have been identified as critical resources in improving the climate resiliency of cities and the quality of life for residents through the urban ecosystem services (UES) that they provide. However, certain communities within cities do not have uniform access to these UGS, and this may be due to historical legacies (i.e. redlining) and/or contemporary practices (i.e. urban planning). Therefore, we sought to determine if the supply of UES throughout the city of Rochester, NY is inequitably distributed. We assessed UES using geospatial analysis and literature-based coefficients to measure ecosystem services. We also assessed the distribution of socioeconomic status (SES), including contemporary demographic information (population density, household median income, homeownership percentages, race percentages, and median property value) and historic neighborhood assessment grades assigned by the HomeOwners Loan Corporation (HOLC), throughout the city. By looking at these two sets of data together, we considered the social-ecological conditions and spatial patterns throughout the city to determine if the supply of UES is correlated with SES distribution. We found that there are statistically significant positive correlations between the production of UES in block groups and the SES indicator homeownership percentages, and negative correlations with the percentage of the population that is Black and lower HOLC grades. Furthermore, clusters of block groups with significantly high levels of social need for urban greening projects and a low production of UES were found primarily in the city’s downtown area and the neighborhoods directly surrounding it. This information provides a useful framework for city planners and policy makers to identify where UGS development needs to be prioritized as well how the supply of UES in the city is inequitably distributed. |
| Date: | 2021–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:ecoevo:xqg7k&r= |
| By: | Lafférs, Lukáš (Matej Bel University); Schmidpeter, Bernhard (University of Linz) |
| Abstract: | We explore the impact of successful job search after childbirth on mothers' labor market careers. Using a bounding approach and administrative data, we find strong heterogeneity in the returns to leaving the pre-birth employer. Moving to a new employer after childbirth leads to an increase in re-employment earnings only for mothers at the upper part of the earnings distribution. For these mothers, initial job search also increases long-term earnings. We provide evidence that earnings gains are the result of higher geographical mobility and longer commutes to work. Successful mothers are also more likely to move to faster growing firms and firms offering better opportunities to women. Our results do not suggest that husbands play an important role in supporting successful job search of mothers. |
| Keywords: | parental leave, return-to-work, job search, earnings, earnings gaps |
| JEL: | C21 J13 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14593&r= |
| By: | Benito, Andrew (University of Warwick); Young, Garry (National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)) |
| Abstract: | Labour productivity stagnated in the UK in the years between the financial crisis and the emergence of Covid-19. At the same time labour supply and employment grew strongly, driven primarily by net inward migration. While labour productivity should be independent of labour supplied in the long run, this need not be the case in the medium-run. Our evidence suggests that around one-fifth, or 4pp, of the 25 log point fall in productivity from its previous trend can be explained by increased labour supply, with idiosyncratic factors and a slowdown in TFP growth accounting for most of the shortfall. |
| Keywords: | productivity, labour supply, capital deepening |
| JEL: | J11 J21 D24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14620&r= |
| By: | Gopi Shah Goda; Emilie Jackson; Lauren Hersch Nicholas; Sarah See Stith |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation strategies exacted a large economic toll on large portions of the United States population. For older and disabled workers, the effects could be more persistent and fiscally costly than the impacts experienced by young, healthy workers due to the spillovers onto Social Security. We use Current Population Survey, Social Security administrative data on applications for retirement and disability benefits, and Google Trends data to assess the impact of COVID-19 on older adults age 50-70. We find that employment for this group dropped substantially more than would have been predicted prior to the pandemic: employment for 50-61 year olds was 5.7 pp (8.3 percent) lower, while employment for 62-70-year- olds was 3.9 pp (10.7 percent) lower. For people aged 50-61, unemployment and labor force exits due to reasons other than disability and retirement represented 63 and 30 percent of the employment decline, respectively. For those aged 62-70, the two largest components of the reduction were unemployment (50 percent) and retirement-driven labor force exits (30 percent). We find evidence of declines in reporting a labor force exit due to disability (4-5 percent), applications for disability insurance (15 percent), and Google search intensity for disability (7 percent). Retirement benefit claiming remains largely unchanged overall, though we find evidence that applicants substituted towards filing for benefits via the internet. We explore potential mechanisms and find evidence for both supply- and demand-side explanations. |
| JEL: | H53 H55 J22 J23 J26 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29083&r= |
| By: | Brice Magdalou (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a generalization of the Hardy-Littlewood-Polya (HLP) Theorem in the following discrete framework: a distribution counts the number of persons having each possible individual outcome –assumed to be finitely divisible– and social welfare improving transfers have the structure of a discrete cone. The generalization is abstract in the sense that individual outcomes can be unidimensional or multidimensional, each dimension can be cardinal or ordinal and no further specification is required for the transfers. It follows that most of the results in the literature, applied to discrete distributions and comparable to the HLP Theorem, are corollaries of our theorem. In addition, our model sheds new light on some surprising results in the literature on social deprivation and, in decision-making under risk, provides new arguments on the key role of the expected utility model. |
| Keywords: | Hardy-Littlewood-Polya Theorem,stochastic dominance,risk,social welfare,inequality,welfare-improving transfers |
| Date: | 2021–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03287960&r= |
| By: | Okechukwu Christopher Onuegbu |
| Abstract: | This work sought to find out the effectiveness of Anambra Broadcasting Service (ABS) Radio news on teaching and learning. The study focused mainly on listeners of ABS radio news broadcast in Awka, the capital of Anambra State, Nigeria. Its objectives were to find out; if Awka based students are exposed to ABS radio; to discover the ABS radio program students favorite; the need gratification that drives students to listen to ABS radio news; the contributions of radio news to students teaching and learning; and effectiveness of ABS radio news on teaching and learning in Awka. The population of Awka students is 198,868. This is also the population of the study. But a sample size of 400 was chosen and administered with questionnaires. The study was hinged on the uses and gratification theory. It adopted a survey research design. The data gathered was analyzed using simple percentages and frequency of tables. The study revealed that news is very effective in teaching and learning. It was concluded that news is the best instructional media to be employed in teaching and learning. Among other things, it was recommended that teachers and students should listen to and make judicious use of news for academic purposes. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02925&r= |
| By: | Ghislain H. Demeze-Jouatsa; Roland Pongou; Jean-Baptiste Tondji |
| Abstract: | Frequent violations of fair principles in real-life settings raise the fundamental question of whether such principles can guarantee the existence of a self-enforcing equilibrium in a free economy. We show that elementary principles of distributive justice guarantee that a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium exists in a finite economy where agents freely (and non-cooperatively) choose their inputs and derive utility from their pay. Chief among these principles is that: 1) your pay should not depend on your name, and 2) a more productive agent should not earn less. When these principles are violated, an equilibrium may not exist. Moreover, we uncover an intuitive condition -- technological monotonicity -- that guarantees equilibrium uniqueness and efficiency. We generalize our findings to economies with social justice and inclusion, implemented in the form of progressive taxation and redistribution, and guaranteeing a basic income to unproductive agents. Our analysis uncovers a new class of strategic form games by incorporating normative principles into non-cooperative game theory. Our results rely on no particular assumptions, and our setup is entirely non-parametric. Illustrations of the theory include applications to exchange economies, surplus distribution in a firm, contagion and self-enforcing lockdown in a networked economy, and bias in the academic peer-review system. Keywords: Market justice; Social justice; Inclusion; Ethics; Discrimination; Self-enforcing contracts; Fairness in non-cooperative games; Pure strategy Nash equilibrium; Efficiency. JEL Codes: C72, D30, D63, J71, J38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12870&r= |
| By: | Benno Torgler |
| Abstract: | The field of behavioral taxation dates back at least to the 1950s. In this contribution I will explore the opportunities and challenges in the area, with a particular focus on tax compliance. I will focus on the data required to make further progress, discussing what can be improved when working with surveys and how the fie ld could benefit from open government data initiatives. I focus on collaborative efforts among scientists as well as with the government or the tax administration and examine many potenti al areas of exploration. The opportunities currently emerging due to digitalization provide not only interesting avenues for collaborations but also a natural method of using tools such as lab and field experiments. In addition, I will discuss potential dangers faced by the field of behavioral economics that also threaten the field of behavioral taxation. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2021-25&r= |
| By: | Elumalai Kannan; Sanjib Pohit |
| Abstract: | Agriculture plays a significant role in economic development of the underdeveloped region. Multiple factors influence the performance of agricultural sector but a few of these have a strong bearing on its growth. We develop a growth diagnostics framework for agricultural sector in Bihar located in eastern India to identify the most binding constraints. Our results show that poor functioning of agricultural markets and low level of crop diversification are the important reasons for lower agricultural growth in Bihar. Rise in the level of instability in the prices of agricultural produces indicates a weak price transmission across the markets even after repealing the agricultural produce market committee act. Poor market linkages and non-functioning producer collectives at village level affect the farmers motivation for undertaking crop diversification. Our policy suggestions include state provision of basic market infrastructure to attract private investment in agricultural marketing, strengthening the farmer producer organisations, and a comprehensive policy on crop diversification. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03912&r= |
| By: | Erickson, Christopher; Norlander, Peter |
| Abstract: | Information and communication technology (ICT) challenges traditional assumptions about the capacity to manage workers beyond organizational and physical boundaries. A typology connects a variety of non-traditional work organizations made possible by ICT, including offshoring, outsourcing, remote work, virtual companies, and platforms. A model illustrates how new technology serves as a proximate cause for a revision of social contracts between capital, labor and government reached through bargaining, and how external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the institutional environment, and limitations in practice influence how technology changes the organization of work. An historical case illustrates the general features of the model, and a review of the outsourcing and offshoring literature provides instructive examples of how features of the model will potentially influence the future of post-pandemic remote work. |
| Keywords: | information and communication technology,institutional change,offshoring,outsourcing,remote work |
| JEL: | J60 J50 J44 J22 O30 R12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:913&r= |
| By: | Acemoglu, Daron (MIT); Pekkarinen, Tuomas (VATT, Helsinki); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Norwegian School of Economics); Sarvimäki, Matti (Aalto University) |
| Abstract: | Upon assuming power for the first time in 1935, the Norwegian Labour Party delivered on its promise for a major schooling reform. The reform raised minimum instruction time in less developed rural areas and boosted the resources available to rural schools, reducing class size and increasing teacher salaries. We document that cohorts more intensively affected by the reform significantly increased their education and experienced higher labor income. Our main result is that the schooling reform also substantially increased support for the Norwegian Labour Party in subsequent elections. This additional support persisted for several decades and was pivotal in maintaining support for the social democratic coalition in Norway. These results are not driven by the direct impact of education and are not explained by higher turnout, or greater attention or resources from the Labour Party targeted towards the municipalities most affected by the reform. Rather, our evidence suggests that cohorts that benefited from the schooling reform, and their parents, rewarded the party for delivering a major reform that was beneficial to them. |
| Keywords: | education, human capital, schooling reform, labor, voting, social democracy |
| JEL: | P16 I28 J26 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14617&r= |
| By: | Yichun Chi; Zuo Quan Xu; Sheng Chao Zhuang |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the effect of background risk on portfolio selection and optimal reinsurance design under the criterion of maximizing the probability of reaching a goal. Following the literature, we adopt dependence uncertainty to model the dependence ambiguity between financial risk (or insurable risk) and background risk. Because the goal-reaching objective function is non-concave, these two problems bring highly unconventional and challenging issues for which classical optimization techniques often fail. Using quantile formulation method, we derive the optimal solutions explicitly. The results show that the presence of background risk does not alter the shape of the solution but instead changes the parameter value of the solution. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the results and verify the robustness of our solutions. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04464&r= |
| By: | Igor L. Kheifets; Peter C. B. Phillips |
| Abstract: | Multicointegration is traditionally defined as a particular long run relationship among variables in a parametric vector autoregressive model that introduces additional cointegrating links between these variables and partial sums of the equilibrium errors. This paper departs from the parametric model, using a semiparametric formulation that reveals the explicit role that singularity of the long run conditional covariance matrix plays in determining multicointegration. The semiparametric framework has the advantage that short run dynamics do not need to be modeled and estimation by standard techniques such as fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) on the original I(1) system is straightforward. The paper derives FM-OLS limit theory in the multicointegrated setting, showing how faster rates of convergence are achieved in the direction of singularity and that the limit distribution depends on the distribution of the conditional one-sided long run covariance estimator used in FM-OLS estimation. Wald tests of restrictions on the regression coefficients have nonstandard limit theory which depends on nuisance parameters in general. The usual tests are shown to be conservative when the restrictions are isolated to the directions of singularity and, under certain conditions, are invariant to singularity otherwise. Simulations show that approximations derived in the paper work well in finite samples. The findings are illustrated empirically in an analysis of fiscal sustainability of the US government over the post-war period. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03486&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Minh-Hoang; Le, Tam-Tri |
| Abstract: | Serendipity is defined as the ability to recognize and evaluate unexpected information and generate unintended value from it. The concept has been discussed for centuries. Still, it has only caught the attention of academia quite recently due to its strategic advantage in all aspects of life, such as daily life activities, science and technology, business and entrepreneurship, politics and economics, education administration, career choice and development, etc. |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ws8hn&r= |
| By: | Martin Herdegen; Johannes Muhle-Karbe; Florian Stebegg |
| Abstract: | We study one-shot Nash competition between an arbitrary number of identical dealers that compete for the order flow of a client. The client trades either because of proprietary information, exposure to idiosyncratic risk, or a mix of both trading motives. When quoting their price schedules, the dealers do not know the client's type but only its distribution, and in turn choose their price quotes to mitigate between adverse selection and inventory costs. Under essentially minimal conditions, we show that a unique symmetric Nash equilibrium exists and can be characterized by the solution of a nonlinear ODE. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12094&r= |
| By: | Gérald Naro (UM - Université de Montpellier, MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UM - Université de Montpellier - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3); Denis Travaillé (UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon, Centre de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | This article aims to question the managerial paradigms and dogmas that underlie the social responsibility of the teacher-researcher in management control. It first shows that research in management control has progressively emphasized human and social dimensions. It then highlights the societal significance of research in management control. However, a study of the DCG and DSCG examination papers and those of the Agrégation of Economy and Management, reveals an instrumental view of management control teaching that is out of step with research in management control. These observations lead to two recommendations: firstly, to develop in the education of future management controllers, a pragmatic perspective and to train them in complex thinking; secondly, to introduce critical thinking in the way management control issues are approached in the courses. |
| Abstract: | Cet article vise à s'interroger sur les paradigmes et dogmes managériaux qui fondent la responsabilité sociale de l'enseignant-chercheur en contrôle de gestion. Il montre d'abord que les recherches en contrôle de gestion ont progressivement mis l'accent sur des dimensions humaines et sociales. Il met en lumière ensuite la portée sociétale des recherches en contrôle de gestion. Cependant, l'étude des épreuves d'examen des DCG et DSCG et de celles du concours d'agrégation d'économie et gestion permet de constater une vision instrumentale des enseignements en contrôle de gestion en décalage par rapport aux recherches en contrôle de gestion. Ces observations conduisent à deux préconisations : premièrement, former les futurs contrôleurs de gestion d'une part, dans une perspective pragmatique et d'autre part, à la pensée complexe; deuxièmement, introduire une pensée critique dans la manière d'aborder les problématiques de contrôle de gestion dans les enseignements. Mots clés : |
| Keywords: | Management Control,Teacher-Researcher,World in Transition,Curricula,Social Responsibility,Contrôle de gestion,Enseignants-chercheurs,Monde en transition,Programmes de formations,Responsabilité sociale et sociétale. |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277485&r= |
| By: | Bartos, Vojtech (University of Munich); Bauer, Michal (Charles University, Prague); Chytilová, Julie (Charles University, Prague); Levely, Ian (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | We test whether an environment of poverty affects time preferences through purely psychological channels. We measured discount rates among farmers in Uganda who made decisions about when to enjoy entertainment instead of working. To circumvent the role of economic constraints, we experimentally induced thoughts about poverty-related problems, using priming techniques. We find that thinking about poverty increases the preference to consume entertainment early and to delay work. Using monitoring tools similar to eye tracking, a novel feature for this subject pool, we show that this effect is unlikely to be driven by less careful decision-making processes. |
| Keywords: | poverty, scarcity, time preferences, self-control, inattention |
| JEL: | C93 D91 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14607&r= |
| By: | Klakow Akepanidtaworn; Rick Di Mascio; Alex Imas; Lawrence Schmidt |
| Abstract: | Are market experts prone to heuristics, and if so, do they transfer across closely related domains—buying and selling? We investigate this question using a unique dataset of institutional investors with portfolios averaging $573 million. A striking finding emerges: while there is clear evidence of skill in buying, selling decisions underperform substantially—even relative to random selling strategies. This holds despite the similarity between the two decisions in frequency, substance and consequences for performance. Evidence suggests that an asymmetric allocation of cognitive resources such as attention can explain the discrepancy: we document a systematic, costly heuristic process when selling but not when buying. |
| JEL: | D91 G02 G12 G4 G41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29076&r= |
| By: | Hans Fehr; Maurice Hofmann; George Kudrna |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of pensions and income taxes in determining homeownership and household wealth. It provides a cross-country analysis, using tax and pension policy designs in Germany, the US and Australia. These developed nations have similar incomes per capita but very different homeownership rates, with the US and Australia having much higher homeownership compared to Germany. The question is to what extent the observed differences in homeownership are induced by national tax and transfer policies. To that end, we develop a stochastic, overlapping generations (OLG) model with tenure choice. The model is calibrated to Germany featuring German statutory public pension and dual income tax systems, and then applied to study the effects of alternative income tax and pension policy structures. Our simulation results indicate that the US and Australian policy designs have a dramatic impact on homeownership, explaining more than half of the observed differentials. We also show significant macroeconomic effects due to differences in tax and pension policies. |
| Keywords: | housing demand, social security, income taxation, stochastic general equilibrium |
| JEL: | R21 H55 H31 H24 C68 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9238&r= |
| By: | Martin Browning; Laurens Cherchye; Thomas Demuynck; Bram De Rock; Frederic Vermeulen |
| Abstract: | We present a methodology for the structural empirical analysis of household consumption and time use behaviour under marital stability. Our approach is of the revealed preference type and non-parametric, meaning that it does not require a prior functional specification of individual utilities. Without making use of the transferable utility assumption, but still allowing for monetary transfers, our method can identify individuals' unobserved match qualities and quantify them in money metric terms. We can include both preference factors, affecting individuals' preferences over private and public goods, and match quality factors, driving differences in unobserved match quality. We demonstrate the practical usefulness of our methodology through an application to the Belgian MEqIn data. Our results reveal intuitive patterns of unobserved match quality that allow us to rationalise both the observed matches and the within-household allocations of time and money. |
| Keywords: | household consumption, marital stability, unobserved match quality, revealed preference analysis, intrahousehold allocation. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/330564&r= |
| By: | Matteo Bobba; Tim Ederer; Gianmarco Leon-Ciliotta; Christopher Neilson; Marco G. Nieddu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how increasing teacher compensation at hard-to-staff schools can reduce inequality in access to qualified teachers. Leveraging an unconditional change in the teacher compensation structure in Peru, we first show causal evidence that increasing salaries at less desirable locations attracts better quality applicants and improves student test scores. We then estimate a model of teacher preferences over local amenities, school characteristics, and wages using geocoded job postings and rich application data from the nationwide centralized teacher assignment system. Our estimated model suggests that the current policy is helpful but both inefficient and not large enough to effectively undo the inequality of initial conditions that hard-to-staff schools and their communities face. Counterfactual analyses that incorporate equilibrium sorting effects characterize alternative wage schedules and quantify the cost of reducing structural inequality in the allocation of teacher talent across schools. Overall our results show that a policy that sets compensation at each job posting using the information generated by the matching platform is more efficient and can help reduce structural inequality in access to learning opportunities. In comparison, a rigid system that ignores teacher preferences will indirectly reinforce such inequalities. |
| JEL: | H52 I20 J3 J45 O15 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29068&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Minh-Hoang; Le, Tam-Tri |
| Abstract: | This paper can be retrieved from here: https://encyclopedia.pub/13174. Serendipity is defined as the ability to recognize and evaluate unexpected information and generate unintended value from it. Based on this definition, Napier and Vuong propose a framework to develop the notion of serendipity as a strategic advantage (or competitive advantage), both in practice and in research. |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7dv8j&r= |
| By: | Kappes, Heather Barry; Fasolo, Barbara; Han, Wenjie; Barnes, Jessica; Ter Meer, Janna |
| Abstract: | Students' low confidence, particularly in numerical topics, is thought to be a barrier to keeping them engaged with education. We studied the effects on confidence of exposure to a peer's work of varying quality (very good or bad) and neatness (messy or neat). Previous research underpinned our hypothesis that a peer's bad-quality work—which students rarely see—might boost student confidence more than very good work. We also predicted that a peer's very good work—which students are often shown—might be less discouraging if it were messy, suggesting it required effort and struggle. However, in experiments with university students and low-educated adults, these hypotheses were not supported, and all participants decreased in confidence after seeing any peer work. The failure to find support for these hypotheses can inform future research into social comparison effects on self-confidence in numerical topics. These results also have practical implications for teachers and managers who are expected to provide examples of peer work. |
| Keywords: | confidence; learning; social comparison; peer comparison; self-concept of ability; numeracy |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2020–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101193&r= |
| By: | Jorge Luis García; James J. Heckman; Victor Ronda |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates multiple beneficial impacts of a program promoting intergenerational mobility for disadvantaged African-American children and their children. The program improves outcomes of the first-generation treatment group across the life cycle, which translates into better family environments for the second generation leading to positive intergenerational gains. There are long-lasting beneficial program effects on cognition through age 54, contradicting claims of fadeout that have dominated popular discussions of early childhood programs. Children of the first-generation treatment group have higher levels of education and employment, lower levels of criminal activity, and better health than children of the first-generation control group. |
| JEL: | C93 H43 I28 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29057&r= |
| By: | Stephen Michael Impink; Andrea Prat; Raffaella Sadun |
| Abstract: | This paper uses novel, firm-level measures derived from communications metadata before and after a CEO transition in 102 firms to study if CEO turnover impacts employees’ communication flows. We find that CEO turnover leads to an initial decrease in intra-firm communication, followed by a significant increase approximately five months after the CEO change. The increase is driven primarily by vertical (i.e. manager to employee) communication. Greater increases in communication after CEO change are associated with greater increases in firm market returns. |
| JEL: | L2 M12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29042&r= |
| By: | Nancy Luke; Kaivan Munshi; Anu Oommen; Swapnil Singh |
| Abstract: | This research provides a single explanation for: (i) the persistence of malnutrition and (ii) the increased prevalence of metabolic disease (diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease) among normal weight individuals with economic development. Our model is based on a set point for BMI or bodyweight that is adapted to conditions of scarcity in the pre-modern economy, but which subsequently fails to adjust to rapid economic change. During the process of development, some individuals thus remain at their low-BMI set point, despite the increase in their consumption, while others who have escaped the nutrition trap (but are not necessarily overweight) are at increased risk of metabolic disease. The model and the underlying biological mechanism, which are validated with micro-data from India, Indonesia and Ghana can jointly explain inter-regional (Asia-Africa) differences in nutritional status and the prevalence of diabetes. |
| JEL: | I15 O20 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29132&r= |
| By: | Asli M. Colpan; Randall Morck |
| Abstract: | Business groups often contain banks or near banks that can protect group firms from economic shocks. A group bank subordinate to other group firms can become an “organ bank” that selflessly bails out distressed group firms and anticipates a government bailout. A group bank subordinating other group firms can extend loans to suppress their risk-taking to default risk, preserving risk-averse low-productivity zombie firms. Actual business groups can fall between these polar cases. Subordinated group banks magnify risk-taking; subordinating banks suppress risk-taking; yet both distortions promote business group firms’ survival. Limiting intragroup income and risk shifting, severing banks from business groups, or dismantling business groups may mitigate both distortions; but also limits business groups’ internal markets, thought important where external markets work poorly. |
| JEL: | F65 G01 G21 G23 N2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29035&r= |
| By: | Luis Garcia; Ulf Lewrick; Taja Sečnik |
| Abstract: | We study banks' year-end window dressing in the European Union to assess how it affects the identification of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) and the associated capital surcharges. We find that G-SIBs compress their balance sheet at year-end to an extent that they can reduce their surcharges or avoid G-SIB designation altogether. G-SIBs use several levers to adjust their balance sheets. Most notably, they compress intra-financial system assets and liabilities as well as their derivative books at year-end. Moreover, G-SIBs that are more tightly constrained by capital requirements window dress more than their peers. Our findings underscore the importance of supervisory judgement in the assessment of G-SIBs and call for greater use of average as opposed to point-in-time data to measure banks' systemic importance. |
| Keywords: | systemically important bank, systemic risks, regulatory arbitrage, financial stability |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:960&r= |
| By: | Harahap, Nita Maharani |
| Abstract: | abstrak Graphic design is a visual communication that uses images to convey information or messages as effectively as possible. In graphic design, text is also considered as an image because it is the result of abstraction from symbols that can be spoken.Graphic design used in communication design and fine arts. Like other types of design, graphic design can refer to the process, design method, resulting product (design), the art of graphic design includes cognitive abilities and visual skills, including typography, illustration, photography, drawing, and layout. raphic design was originally applied to static media, such as books, magazines, brochures, etc. In addition, following the times, graphic design is also applied to electronic media which is commonly referred to as interactive design or multimedia design. The development of design thinking. Graphic design can be applied to any design environment including space.The role of graphic design in all areas of business is much needed. This can be evidenced by the many areas of business that utilize the expertise of graphic designers. The demands of promotional design that are increasingly common in today's business world require graphic designers to be able to develop their own interests in making products that are attractive to the public., To find out how much influence the world of work has on work.Through this proposal, I would like to submit a graphic design proposal to you, whether it is used for web pages, applications, company logos, posters, etc. or for other purposes. Compared to other professional design providers, the price is relatively competitive, but you can still get complete facilities and after-sales from us. We have given several advantages in design. |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:84k93&r= |
| By: | Giray Gozgor; Sudharshan Reddy Paramati |
| Abstract: | Countries have made considerable efforts to diversify their energy sources from fossil fuels to renewables in the last two decades to achieve sustainable economic development. However, it is widely argued that the countries may experience sluggish economic development during the energy transition period due to structural and functional changes in the economic system. Given this backdrop, this study introduces a new measure of energy diversification. It explores its impact on economic development across the panels of low-income, high-income, European Union (EU), the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and G20 countries. The study uses data from 1995 to 2018 and utilizes Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NPARDL) method. Our findings confirm that the major economies (including G20) realize positive economic growth with increasing long-run energy diversification. However, some countries (OECD and G20) experience negative economic growth due to energy diversification in the short term. The results also disclosed that energy diversification does not favor economic growth in low-income economies in both the short and long term. Therefore, more precautionary measures to be taken into account while diversifying energy sources. |
| Keywords: | energy diversification, energy transition, energy mix, economic development, climate change, nonlinear panel ARDL estimations |
| JEL: | O47 Q01 Q42 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9247&r= |
| By: | Elda Nasho Ah-Pine (ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand, CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Business scholars work in an increasingly complex world facing many major challenges such as health crises, the fight against global warming, poverty and exclusion, the crisis of representativeness. While the social responsibility of the scholars is nowadays well established, the meaning of their engagement is not always unanimous. Debate persists between those who are in favor of the engaged scholarship which is considered useful to organizations and society and the ones who are against it. This contribution is in line with the approach of engaged scholarship developed by Andrew Van De Ven. The objective is to understand complex problems, by integrating others' perspectives in a framework that enables the progress of knowledge for theory and practice. How does the application of engaged scholarship promote the social responsibility of scholars in management vis-à-vis the various stakeholders? To answer this research question, we analyze the relationship between engaged scholarship and scholars' social responsibility from a theoretical point of view, and through a new course carried out at ESC Clermont Business school from an empirical point of view. |
| Abstract: | Les enseignants-chercheurs en management oeuvrent dans un monde de plus en plus complexe faisant face à de nombreux grands challenges comme les crises sanitaires, la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique, la pauvreté et l'exclusion et la crise de représentativité. Si la reconnaissance de la responsabilité sociétale des enseignantschercheurs est aujourd'hui largement reconnue, le sens même de leur engagement ne fait pas quant à lui l'unanimité. Le débat persiste entre ceux qui sont en faveur d'une recherche engagée utile aux organisations et à la société et ceux qui ne le sont pas. Cette contribution s'inscrit dans l'approche d'engaged scholarship de Van De Ven visant à comprendre des problèmes complexes, en intégrant les perspectives des autres parties prenantes, afin de rendre possible des recherches permettant le progrès des connaissances, au service à la fois de la théorie et de la pratique. Comment dès lors l'application de l'engaged scholarship impulse-t-elle la responsabilité sociétale des enseignantschercheurs en gestion vis-à-vis des diverses parties prenantes ? Afin de répondre à cette question, nous analysons les relations entre l'engaged scholarship et la responsabilité sociétale des enseignants-chercheurs d'un point de vue théorique et au travers du cas d'un enseignement nouveau au sein de l'ESC Clermont d'un point de vue empirique. |
| Keywords: | Engaged scholarship,Van de Ven,scholars' social responsibility,Responsabilité sociétale des enseignants-chercheurs. |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277495&r= |
| By: | Erik Hurst; Yona Rubinstein; Kazuatsu Shimizu |
| Abstract: | Why did the Black-White wage gap converge from 1960 to 1980 and why has it stagnated since? To answer this question, we introduce a unified model that integrates notions of both taste-based and statistical discrimination into a task-based model of occupational sorting. At the heart of our framework is the idea that discrimination varies by the task requirement of each job. We use this framework to identify and quantify the role of trends in race-specific factors and changing task prices in explaining the evolution of the Black-White wage gap since 1960. In doing so, we highlight a new task measure - Contact tasks – which measures the extent to which individuals interact with others as part of their job. We provide evidence that changes in the racial gap in Contact tasks serves as a good proxy for changes in taste-based discrimination over time. We find that taste-based discrimination has fallen and racial skill gaps have narrowed over the last sixty years in the United States. However, since the 1980s, the effect of declining racial skill gaps and discrimination on the Black-White wage gap were offset by the increasing returns to Abstract tasks which, on average, favored White workers relative to Black workers. |
| JEL: | J24 J7 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29022&r= |
| By: | Robert Kollmann |
| Abstract: | Does household heterogeneity matter for exchange rate determination? This paper tests Kocherlakota and Pistaferri’s (2007) prominent heterogeneous agent model, in which the real exchange rate perfectly tracks relative domestic/foreign moments of cross-household consumption distributions. The evidence presented here indicates that the real exchange rate is disconnected from relative cross-household consumption moments. |
| Keywords: | Household consumption heterogeneity; International and domestic risk sharing; Real exchange rate. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/330313&r= |
| By: | Donatella Baiardi (Center for European Studies, University of Parma, Italy; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis); Maria Gaia Soana (University of Parma, Italy) |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the effectiveness of environmental and energy policies, complying with legal requirements or followed voluntarily by firms, on the pro-environmental efforts of 63 listed firms in Italy in the years 2008-2019. Our research design combines macroeconomic data referring to general policies for reducing air emissions, renewable energy interventions and energy efficiency measures with analogous policies applied at firm level on voluntary basis. The empirical analysis is performed in a panel data context by means of propensity score matching with multiple treatments, which allows us to test the effectiveness of (1) macroeconomic policies on firm environmental performance; (2) microeconomic policies on firm environmental performance, and (3) the coexistence of macroeconomic and microeconomic policies on firm environmental performance. Our results show that the effectiveness of these interventions, applied either separately or jointly, depends on the type of indicator used to proxy firm environmental performance. In particular, we find that the social costs of climate change are not internalized by listed companies, and that macroeconomic interventions are an excellent tool to implement because they are effective to fight climate change where voluntary actions fail and are also complementary to voluntary actions, since they support their effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Firm environmental performance, General policies for reducing air emissions, Renewable energy policies, Energy efficiency policies, Propensity score matching with multiple treatments, Italian listed companies |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:21-17&r= |
| By: | Daan Freeman (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Leon Bettendorf (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Harro van Heuvelen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Gerdien Meijerink (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the declining firm dynamism in the Netherlands, which may explain part of the slowdown in productivity growth. We use a rich microdata set including nearly all corporations in the Netherlands during 2006-2016, which enables us to evaluate the TFP growth contributions of exiting firms, start-ups and new firms resulting from mergers & acquisitions in different industries. We use a Melitz and Polanec (2015) decomposition to assess TFP growth contributions. We find that in service industries, start-ups, new firms created by M&As and exiting firms all contribute to overall TFP growth, in line with the creative destruction hypothesis. In manufacturing industries, TFP growth is driven mostly by incumbent firms. Here, entry and exit dynamics contribute relatively little or even negatively to TFP growth. In addition, young firms in the manufacturing industries tend to have higher TFP growth than older firms, while in service industries this is not the case. Finally, in general, relatively low productivity entrants are more likely to exit in the first five years after entry, which is in line with an `up-or-out' dynamic. |
| JEL: | F16 J31 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:427.rdf&r= |
| By: | Ryosuke Sakai; Shigehiro Serizawa |
| Abstract: | We consider the multi-object allocation problem with monetary transfers where each agent obtains at most one object (unit-demand). We focus on allocation rules satisfying individual rationality, no subsidy, efficiency, and strategy-proofness. Extending the result of Morimoto and Serizawa (2015), we show that for an arbitrary number of agents and objects, the minimum price Walrasian is characterized by the four properties on the classical domain. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1134&r= |
| By: | Peter Bank; Yan Dolinsky; Mikl\'os R\'asonyi |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study optimal investment when the investor can peek some time unites into the future, but cannot fully take advantage of this knowledge because of quadratic transaction costs. In the Bachelier setting with exponential utility, we give an explicit solution to this control problem with intrinsically infinite-dimensional memory. This is made possible by solving the dual problem where we make use of the theory of Gaussian Volterra integral equations. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04291&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Minh-Hoang; Vuong, Quan-Hoang; Ho, Manh-Toan (Thanh Tay University Hanoi); Le, Tam-Tri |
| Abstract: | The mindsponge mechanism (mindsponge framework, mindsponge concept, or mindsponge process) provides a way to explain how and why an individual observes and ejects cultural values conditional on the external setting. The term “mindsponge” derives from the metaphor that the mind is analogized to a sponge that squeezes out unsuitable values and absorbs new ones compatible with its core value. Thanks to the complexity and well-structuring, the mechanism has been used to develop various concepts in multiple disciplines. One such concept is "cultural additivity" |
| Date: | 2021–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zpvmk&r= |
| By: | Scott R. Baker; Lorenz Kueng |
| Abstract: | The growth of the availability and use of detailed household financial transaction microdata has dramatically expanded the ability of researchers to understand both household decision-making as well as aggregate fluctuations across a wide range of fields. This class of transaction data is derived from a myriad of sources including financial institutions, FinTech apps, and payment intermediaries. We review how these detailed data have been utilized in finance and economics research and the benefits they enable beyond more traditional measures of income, spending, and wealth. We discuss the future potential for this flexible class of data in firm-focused research, real-time policy analysis, and macro statistics. |
| JEL: | C81 D14 G5 H31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29027&r= |
| By: | Ella Hugo; David A. Savage; Friedrich Schneider; Benno Torgler |
| Abstract: | The ambiguous phenomenon of corruption has long b een the cause of great theoretical debate in economics. By using Structural Equation Modelling, with the two types of corruption as a latent variable, this paper employs causal and indicative variables specific to the Latin American region to test for rent seeking and systemic corruption in th e period between 1980-2018. The findings provide evidence for two types of corruption, one generated by greed, and the other a solution to market failures. Such results support the view that corruption encompasses a complex set of social behaviours. |
| Keywords: | Rent Seeking Corruption; Systemic Corruption; Shadow Economy; Latin America |
| JEL: | D73 K42 O17 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2021-26&r= |
| By: | Moh’d, Shamis Said; Ozgur, Ceyhun; Mohd, Mohd Yaziz; Khalfan, Mohamed Hafidh |
| Abstract: | This study aims at quantifying fundamental components such as the country economy, stock market development, economic sectors, and company’s performance computed by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) built-in MATLAB program and combined using a top-down approach. It was conducted in the East African region specifically Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda from 2015 to 2018. A secondary data extracted from the listed company’s websites, capital market authorities of each country, and World Bank. The study found that the combined performance of various components has a great impact on screening the stocks to be used for portfolio construction. It gives a signal to the authorities of capital markets, investors, policymakers, and other regulatory bodies to take immediate measures on designing policies and best practices. Further recommendation to the capital market authorities within the region is to ensure the growth of managerial and operational performance of stock exchanges. Also, regulatory bodies, policymakers, and higher-level administration of each country within the region to take responsibility to uplift the country's economy as well as economic sectors growth. The board of directors and management of listed companies should formulate strategies to improve both managerial and operational performance. |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:mqh46&r= |
| By: | Mikhail Chernov; Lars A. Lochstoer; Dongho Song |
| Abstract: | We present evidence that the mix of transitory and permanent shocks to consumption is changing over time. We study the implications of this finding for asset prices. The uncovered dynamics of consumption implies modestly upward sloping real bond and equity curves, upward sloping nominal yield curve, and sign-switching correlation between equities and bonds consistent with the stylized facts. This is achieved without relying on the nominal channel too much. That is, as in the data, the variation of inflation in the model is under 40% as a fraction of variation in nominal yields. |
| JEL: | E32 E43 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29085&r= |
| By: | Seltzer, Andrew (Royal Holloway, University of London); Wadsworth, Jonathan (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the consequences of the commuter transport revolution on working class labour markets in 1930s London. The ability to commute alleviated urban crowding and increased workers’ choice of potential employers. Using GIS-based data constructed from the New Survey of London Life and Labour, we examine the extent of commuting and estimate the earnings returns to commuting. We obtain a lower-bound estimate of two percent increase in earnings per kilometer travelled. We also show that commuting was an important contributor to improving quality of life in the early-twentieth century. |
| Keywords: | public transportation, New Survey of London Life and Labour, GIS, earnings |
| JEL: | N94 J39 N34 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14628&r= |
| By: | Bartholomew, Theodore |
| Abstract: | Objectives: International students attending universities in the United States may encounter psychological distress related to their adjustment and experiences studying in a new context and seek services from university counseling centers. Many centers use the Counseling Center Assessment of Psychological Symptoms (CCAPS) to measure psychological distress in college counseling centers. However, this scale has not been tested for measurement invariance with international students. Our purpose was to explore the measurement invariance of the CCAPS-62 and -34 for international students. Methods: We tested measurement invariance for both versions of the scale using data from over 107,000 university students in psychotherapy at university counseling centers. We also examined construct validity and internal consistency. Results: Invariance testing indicated the measurement models of the CCAPS-62 and -34 are equivalent between both groups. Conclusion: These findings are discussed in light of utilizing this widely-used scale in United States university/college counseling centers with international student clients. |
| Date: | 2021–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:79hup&r= |
| By: | Alderotti, Giammarco; Rapallini, Chiara; Traverso, Silvio |
| Abstract: | The past two decades have witnessed an increasing interest in the relationship between personality and labor market outcomes, as well as the emergence of the Five-Factor Model as the reference framework for the study of personality. In this paper, we provide the first meta-analytical review of the empirical literature on the association between personal earnings and the Big Five personality traits. The analysis combines the results of 63 peer-reviewed articles published between 2001-2020, from which we retrieved 896 partial effect sizes. Overall, the primary literature provides robust support for a positive association between personal earnings and the traits of Openness, Conscientiousness, and Extraversion, while simultaneously revealing a negative and significant association between earnings and the traits of Agreeableness and Neuroticism. We find no evidence of a substantial publication bias. Meta-regression estimates suggest that Openness and Conscientiousness are positively associated with earnings even when primary researchers control for individual cognitive abilities and educational attainments. Similarly, the studies that includes labor market control variables exhibit weaker associations between earnings and Extraversion and Agreeableness. The results of the primary studies seem unaffected by the time at which the Big Five are measured, as well as by the scale and number of inventory items. Meta-regression estimates suggest that the results of the primary literature are not stable across cultures and gender, and that the ranking and academic field of the journal matter. |
| Keywords: | Big Five personality traits,earnings,meta-analysis |
| JEL: | J24 D91 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:902r&r= |
| By: | Yi, Jing; Cohen, Samantha; Rehkamp, Sarah; Gomez, Miguel I.; Ge, Houtian; Jaromczyk, Jerzy |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Agribusiness, Marketing |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312901&r= |
| By: | Kerstin H\"otte; Su Jung Jee; Sugandha Srivastav |
| Abstract: | Technologies help adapt to climate change but little systematic research about these technologies and their interaction with mitigation exists. We identify climate change adaptation technologies (CCATs) in US patent data to study the technological frontier in adaptation. We find that patenting in CCATs was roughly stagnant over the past decades. CCATs form two main clusters: (1) science-intensive CCATs related to agriculture, health and monitoring technologies; and (2) engineering-based for coastal, water and infrastructure adaptation. 25% of CCATs help in climate change mitigation, and we infer that synergies can be maximized through well designed policy. CCATs rely more on public R&D than other inventions, and CCAT patents are citing more science over time, indicating a growing relevance of research as a knowledge source for innovation. Policymakers can use these results to get greater clarity on where R&D support for CCATs can be directed. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03722&r= |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower; Donna Feir |
| Abstract: | Four million Native Americans who identify as single race live in the USA. Another three million identify as Native American in combination with another race. Yet they are rarely the focus of detailed research. We provide the first evidence that levels of consistently poor mental health, or chronic distress, among Native peoples were greater in every year between 1993 and 2020 than among White or Black Americans. We find this to be present among those over the age of thirty but less so for the young. Over time we demonstrate there has been a rise in chronic distress among Native Americans and multi-race individuals. However, chronic distress seems to be lowest among Native peoples living in the seven states with the largest Native American populations of Alaska, Arizona, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota and Oklahoma. In our judgment these facts are important and not widely known. This stands in stark contrast to the enormous scholarly and media interest in declining physiological well-being among White Americans. |
| JEL: | I14 J15 J71 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29119&r= |
| By: | Nazli Mohammad (University of Nevada [Reno]) |
| Abstract: | This research addresses cultural factors that may have a direct effect on the level of trust in society. Specific questions to be addressed are: What is trust? What are factors influencing the development of trust? Research Goal Understanding relationship between individual values, big five personalities, social isolation, and anomie with trust. The purpose is to illuminate the key role of trust in critical social processes. Methods |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03281111&r= |
| By: | Donatella Baiardi (Center for European Studies, University of Parma, Italy; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis) |
| Abstract: | To answer this question, this paper reviews the huge and growing body of empirical literature on climate change awareness, and summarizes insights emerging from a critical review of about 140 papers. In particular, this survey provides (i) a historical overview of climate change awareness worldwide, (ii) a guide to the most widely used datasets, with a peculiar attention to the question wording employed to measuring climate change awareness when the analysis is performed at individual level; (iii) a detailed review of the main socio-economic and climatological determinants of climate change awareness, such as age, gender, education, political values, experience of extreme weather conditions, social and institutional trust and the stage of development of the country where people live; and (iv) a summary of the main implications of these findings in terms of public policy responses. |
| Keywords: | climate change awareness, individual perceptions, question wording, socio-economic determinants, policy implications |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:21-16&r= |
| By: | Liran Einav; Amy Finkelstein; Neale Mahoney |
| Abstract: | This is an invited chapter for the forthcoming Volume 4 of the Handbook of Industrial Organization. We focus on "selection markets," which cover markets in which consumers vary not only in how much they are willing to pay for a product but also in how costly they are to the seller. The chapter tries to organize the recent wave of IO-related papers on selection markets, which has largely focused on insurance and credit markets. We provide a common framework, terminology, and notation that can be used to understand many of these papers, and that we hope can be usefully applied going forward. |
| JEL: | G22 L00 L13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29039&r= |
| By: | Dante Amengual (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Xinyue Bei (Duke University); Enrique Sentana (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | We propose a multivariate normality test against skew normal distributions using higher-order log-likelihood derivatives which is asymptotically equivalent to the likelihood ratio but only requires estimation under the null. Numerically, it is the supremum of the univariate skewness coefficient test over all linear combinations of the variables. We can simulate its exact finite sample distribution for any multivariate dimension and sample size. Our Monte Carlo exercises confirm its power advantages over alternative approaches. Finally, we apply it to the joint distribution of US city sizes in two consecutive censuses finding that non-normality is very clearly seen in their growth rates. |
| Keywords: | City size distribution, exact test, extremum test, Gibrat's law, skew normal distribution. |
| JEL: | C46 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2021_2104&r= |
| By: | Bear, Laura |
| Abstract: | This introduction explores how to build a critical analysis of post-crisis capitalism by moving beyond Marx, Foucault and Callon's approaches. This is crucially important because powerful technocratic institutions and the discipline of economics are attempting to regain legitimacy by adopting theories that mirror performativity, discursive, narrative and network concepts within the social sciences. To combat this we need to forge a new approach that returns our attention to questions of accumulation and inequality. It is with this in view that the articles in the special issue use the concept of speculation and explore it in real estate markets, infrastructure financing, oil and gold trading, ethical finance and gambling. Overall speculation is understood to be future-oriented affective, physical and intellectual labour that aims to accumulate capital for various ends. Control of the means of speculation is governed by the distribution of contracts and credit in society. And crucially the amount of surplus value extracted depends on calculations of risk based on the imagination of social differences. Social evaluations are at the core of the technologies of imagination used in speculation. Speculation is akin to practices of divination or magic because it aims to reveal a hidden order of human and non-human ethical powers that explain the past, present and future and make it possible to act. Importantly this means that racial, gendered, national and other imaginings of the social permeate acts of speculation. From our perspective, we can write a critical and post-colonial account of capitalism that addresses inequalities of race and nation scandalously omitted from Marx, Foucault and Callon's accounts of ‘the economic’. |
| Keywords: | speculation; capitalism; accumulation; post-coloniality; timescapes |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2020–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103433&r= |
| By: | Miqdad Asaria; Joan Costa-i-Font; Frank Cowell |
| Abstract: | We study the determinants of individual aversion to health and income inequality in three European countries and the effects of exposure to COVID-19 including the effect employment, income and health shocks using representative samples of the population in each country. Comparing levels of health- and income-inequality aversion in the UK between the years 2016 and 2020 we find a significant increase in inequality aversion in both income and health domains. Inequality aversion is higher in the income domain than in the health domain and inequality aversion in both income and health domains is increasing in age and education and decreasing in income and risk appetite. However, people directly exposed to major health shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic generally exhibited lower levels of aversion to both income and health inequality. But for those at high risk of COVID-19 mortality who experienced major health shocks during the pandemic, inequality aversion was significantly higher than for those of similar individuals experiencing a health shock prior to the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | inequality aversion, income, health, Covid-19, attitudes to inequality, employment shocks, health shocks, difference in differences |
| JEL: | I18 I30 I38 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9250&r= |
| By: | Emmanouil Sfendourakis; Ioane Muni Toke |
| Abstract: | A point process model for order flows in limit order books is proposed, in which the conditional intensity is the product of a Hawkes component and a state-dependent factor. In the LOB context, state observations may include the observed imbalance or the observed spread. Full technical details for the computationally-efficient estimation of such a process are provided, using either direct likelihood maximization or EM-type estimation. Applications include models for bid and ask market orders, or for upwards and downwards price movements. Empirical results on multiple stocks traded in Euronext Paris underline the benefits of state-dependent formulations for LOB modeling, e.g. in terms of goodness-of-fit to financial data. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12872&r= |
| By: | Isabelle Cadet (IAE Paris - Sorbonne Business School, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | The normative foundations of corporate social responsibility (CSR), transposed to the teacher-researcher in management sciences, raise questions because of the many paradoxes they involve. This article, which is interdisciplinary across law and management, seeks to determine what this responsibility covers, and more precisely, the nature of the obligations that arise for the teacher-researcher in a management school, both as an actor, within the framework of his or her organization or institution, but also as a member of a scientific community. While the responsibility of any scholar can only be measured in terms of his or her academic freedom, his or her societal responsibility (SR) can be assessed by taking into-account the expectations of his or her stakeholders and integrating the associated pract ices. However, far from always being an opportunity to meet the scientific challenges related to sustainable development, our critical reflection allows us to highlight the consequences of this managerial logic of action, now coupled with a legal logic, which reduces the autonomy of researchers, without guaranteeing the social, societal or environmental impact of their work. |
| Abstract: | Les fondements normatifs de la responsabilité sociale de l'entreprise (RSE), transposés à l'enseignant-chercheur en sciences de gestion, interpellent, en raison des nombreux paradoxes qu'ils soulèvent. Cet article, interdisciplinaire droit et gestion, cherche à savoir ce que recouvre cette responsabilité, et plus précisément, la nature des obligations qui en découlent pour l'enseignant-chercheur en école de management, à la fois en tant qu'acteur, dans le cadre de son organisation ou institution, mais également comme membre d'une communauté scientifique. Si la responsabilité de tout enseignant-chercheur ne peut être mesurée qu'à l'aune de sa liberté académique, sa responsabilité sociétale (RS) s'apprécie par la prise en compte des attentes de ses parties prenantes et l'intégration des pratiques associées. Or, loin d'être toujours une opportunité pour relever les défis scientifiques liés au développement durable, notre réflexion critique permet de mettre en évidence les conséquences de cette logique managériale, couplée désormais à une logique juridique, qui réduit l'autonomie des chercheurs, sans pour autant garantir l'utilité sociale, sociétale ou environnementale de leurs travaux. |
| Keywords: | Teacher-researcher,social responsibility,academic freedom,managerial logic of action,norms and standards,Enseignant-chercheur,responsabilité sociale,liberté académique,logique managériale,norme |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277502&r= |
| By: | Kelly-Irving, Michelle; Delpierre, Cyrille |
| Abstract: | Understanding how structural, social and psychosocial factors come to affect our health resulting in health inequalities is more relevant now than ever as trends in mortality gaps between rich and poor appear to have widened over the past decades. To move beyond description, we need to hypothesize about how structural and social factors may cause health outcomes. In this paper we examine the construction of health over the life course through the lens of influential theoretical work. Based on concepts developed by scholars from different disciplines, we propose a novel framework for research on social-to-biological processes which may be important contributors to health inequalities. We define two broad sets of mechanisms that may help understand how socially structured exposures become embodied: mechanisms of exogenous and endogenous origin. We describe the embodiment dynamic framework, its uses and how it may be combined with an intersectional approach to best capture how intermeshed oppressions affect social exposures which may be expressed biologically. We explain how this framework may be a tool for carrying out research and provide scientific evidence to challenge genetic essentialism, often used to dismiss social inequalities in health. |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z8k3e&r= |
| By: | Jean-François Joye (Centre Favre - Centre de Recherche en Droit Antoine Favre - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Laurent Matthey (Institut de gouvernance de l’environnement et développement territorial (IGEDT) Université de Genève) |
| Abstract: | Auteurs Partie Suisse : Nicola Cantoreggi, Raphaël Conti, Diana Djourou, Thibaud Falciola, Isabel Girault, Emilie Guibert, Laetitia Maradan, Laurent Matthey, Alexandra Milosevic, Stéphane Nydegger, Eric Rossiaud, Bastien Rothlisberger, Benjamin Valdivieso. Partie France : Lionel Pancrazio, Anouan Akomian, Sylvain Bernard, Thomas Berthet, Christiane Chateauvieux, Brigitte De Jong, Stephan Degeorges, Paulette Duarte, Pete Kirkham, Thomas Sablé, Flora Vern. |
| Keywords: | Logement,coopératives d'habitat,habitat participatif,ville,réalisation,Suisse,France,coopération transfrontalière |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03273187&r= |
| By: | Frank Martin; Kathleen Feeney; Todd Honeycutt; Purvi Sevak |
| Abstract: | Linking Learning to Careers offered services designed to improve the college and career readiness of high school students with disabilities by enhancing and customizing their education and employment services. This implementation report describes the experience implementing the program and presents findings on participants’ service use within the first 18 months of their enrollment in the program. |
| Keywords: | Linking Learning to Careers, transition-age youth, program evaluation, implementation evaluation |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:229f3c46eb0145ea9872e3478b03b606&r= |
| By: | Kang, Qi; Carpio, Carlos E.; Garcia, Manuel De Jesus; Wang, Chenggang; Boonsaeng, Tullaya; Hudson, Darren |
| Keywords: | Marketing, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312811&r= |
| By: | Carvalho, Vasco M. (University of Cambridge); Draca, Mirko (University of Warwick and CAGE Research Centre); Kuhlen, Nikolas (University of Cambridge and The Alan Turing Institute) |
| Abstract: | How do firms and inventors move through ‘knowledge space’ as they develop their innovations? We propose a method for tracking patterns of ‘exploration and exploitation’ in patenting behaviour in the US for the period since 1920. Our exploration measure is constructed from the text of patents find involves the use of ‘Bayesian Surprise’ to measure how different current patent-based innovations are from existing portfolios. Our results indicate that there are distinct ‘life-cycle’ patterns to firm and inventor exploration. Furthermore, exploration activity is more geographically concentrated than general patenting, but this concentration is centred outside the main hubs of patenting. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1366&r= |
| By: | Den Haan, Wouter J.; Freund, Lukas; Kaerner Rendahl, Pontus |
| Abstract: | In search-and-matching models, the nonlinear nature of search frictions increases average unemployment rates during periods with higher volatility. These frictions are not, however, by themselves sufficient to raise unemployment following an increase in perceived uncertainty; though they may do so in conjunction with the common assumption of wages being determined by Nash bargaining. Importantly, option-value considerations play no role in the standard model with free entry. In contrast, when the mass of entrepreneurs is finite and there is heterogeneity in firm-specific productivity, a rise in perceived uncertainty robustly increases the option value of waiting and reduces job creation. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty; search frictions; unemployment; option value |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111568&r= |
| By: | Miguel Almunia; Jonas Hjort; Justine Knebelmann; Lin Tian |
| Abstract: | Are firms sophisticated maximizers, or do they consistently make errors? Using transaction-level data from Ugandan value-added tax (VAT) returns, we show that sellers and buyers report different amounts 79% of the time, despite invoices being easily cross-checked. We estimate that 25% of firms are disadvantageous misreporters—they systematically misreport own sales and purchases such that their tax liability increases—while 75% are advantageous misreporters. Many firms—especially disadvantageous misreporters—fail to report imported inputs they themselves reported at Customs, increasing their VAT liability. On net, unilateral VAT misreporting cost Uganda about US$384 million in foregone 2013-2016 tax revenue |
| JEL: | D2 D9 H2 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29059&r= |
| By: | Van Reenen, John; Bloom, Nicholas; Draca, Mirko |
| Abstract: | In Bloom, Draca and Van Reenen (2016, “BDVR”) we have a set of nine results on the impact of Chinese trade. The first three showed that Chinese trade increased technical change in European firms measured by patents, productivity and IT adoption. The last six showed that Chinese trade led to reallocation towards more technologically advanced firms: those with more patents, higher productivity and IT adoption had faster growth and lower exit rates. Campbell and Mau (2020, “CM”) argue that the effects of Chinese imports on patenting are sensitive to specification changes. This paper focuses on CM’s critique of our count data models – we discuss other aspects of CM in a longer response. |
| Keywords: | OUP deal |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2021–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108890&r= |
| By: | Bigoni, Maria (University of Bologna); Dragone, Davide (University of Bologna); Luchini, Stéphane (Aix-Marseille University); Prati, Alberto (Aix-Marseille University) |
| Abstract: | We study time preferences by means of a longitudinal lab experiment involving both monetary and non-monetary rewards (leisure). Our novel design allows to measure whether participants prefer to anticipate or delay gratification, without imposing any structural assumption on the instantaneous utility, intertemporal utility or the discounting functions. We find that most people prefer to anticipate monetary rewards (positive time preferences for money), but they delay non-monetary rewards (negative time preferences for leisure). These results cannot be explained by personal timetables and heterogeneous preferences only. They invite to reconsider the psychological interpretation of the discount factor, and suggest that the assumption that discounting is consistent across domains can lead to non-negligible prediction errors in models involving non-monetary decisions, such as labor supply models. |
| Keywords: | consistency across domains, negative discounting, laboratory experiment, non-monetary rewards |
| JEL: | C91 D01 D91 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14590&r= |
| By: | Peter Christensen; Christopher Timmins |
| Abstract: | By constraining an individual’s choice during a search, housing discrimination dis- torts sorting decisions away from true preferences and results in a ceteris paribus reduction in welfare. This study combines a large-scale field experiment with a residential sorting model to derive utility-theoretic measures of renter welfare loss associated with the constraints imposed by discrimination in the rental housing market. Results from experiments conducted in five cities show that key neighbor- hood amenities are associated with higher levels of discrimination. Results from the structural model indicate that discrimination imposes costs equivalent to 4.7% of annual income for renters of color, and that search behavior results in greater welfare costs for African Americans as their incomes rise. Renters of color must make substantial investments in additional search to mitigate the costs of these constraints. We find that a naive model ignoring discrimination constraints yields significantly biased estimates of willingness to pay. |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29049&r= |
| By: | Gauti B. Eggertsson; Cosimo Petracchi |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits and proposes a resolution to an empirical and theoretical controversy between Keynes and the “classics” (or monetarists). The controversy dates to Keynes’s General Theory (1936)—most famously formalized in Hicks’s (1937) classic Econometrica article, in which the IS-LM model is first formally stated. We first replicate empirical tests formulated in the late 1960s and ’70s and show that more recent data have more statistical power and resolve the empirical debate in favor of the Keynesians, at least according to the criteria of the literature at that time. We then show, using a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, that the empirical tests suffer from the Lucas (1976) critique, as the conclusion fundamentally depends upon the assumed policy regime. Nevertheless, we argue, this new empirical result is useful: it provides evidence for the existence of a “Keynesian policy regime” according to which traditional monetary expansion loses its impact in the absence of a policy regime change, in the sense of Sargent (1982). |
| JEL: | B0 B1 B22 E0 E12 E13 E4 E5 E50 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29158&r= |
| By: | Morris Davis; Jesse M. Gregory |
| Abstract: | In many recent location choice models, households randomly vary with respect to their utility of living in a location. We demonstrate that the distribution generating this randomness is fundamentally not identifiable from location choice data and as a result the optimal allocation as chosen by a social planner is not identified. We propose an algorithm for setting the distribution generating the random utility across locations that implies a planner will optimally choose no redistribution in the absence of externalities or equity motives between different groups of people. Our algorithm preserves a planner's motives to redistribute due to equity considerations between different types of people and efficiency in production, the focus of many recent studies. |
| JEL: | H0 R38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29045&r= |
| By: | George Abuselidze |
| Abstract: | Since the end of 90s till today when all the elements confirming Georgian State System have practically been established, budget system and policy remains as the most difficult Georgian macroeconomics challenge and even still half-and-half unsolved problem. One side of the fiscal policy is quite crucially formulated and administrative Tax Code, and the other side is the weak, unmanaged and incomplete law on Budget System. According to the above-mentioned the elaboration and adoption of the Budget Code having equal force as Tax Code is necessary by which the following are to be determined: excellence of government responsibility when it will not perform the budget obligations specified by the law permanently; the rights and responsibilities of the state, the optimal distribution of the funds mobilized by the tax towards each member of the society. For optimization of the budget system effective correlation between the state, regional and local budgets revenues and expenditures is particularly important as the social-economic development of the regions and territorial units of the country is impossible without the financial relations. For it the just differentiation of tax base in the section of state, regional and local budgets and transfers system for support of the budgets of the territorial units from the central budget are necessary. Solving the most part of these problems is possible by the adoption of the budget code which, in our opinion, is to be considered as the closest decisive task for the current legislative and executive authority. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04739&r= |
| By: | Clemens Sialm; Qifei Zhu |
| Abstract: | Investments in international fixed income securities are exposed to significant currency risks. We collect novel data on mutual fund currency derivatives and document that around 90% of U.S. international fixed income funds use currency forwards to manage their foreign exchange exposure. Funds' currency forward positions differ substantially based on risk management demands related to portfolio currency exposures, return-enhancement motives such as currency momentum and carry trade, and strategic considerations related to past performance and fund clienteles. Funds that hedge their currency risk exhibit lower return variability, but do not generate inferior abnormal returns. |
| JEL: | F21 F31 F34 G11 G12 G13 G15 G23 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29082&r= |
| By: | Hulya Saygili |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the significance of real and monetary integrations among countries on the inflationary dynamics of an emerging country, Turkey. The analysis accounts for 2-digit items of CPI inflation which can be broadly categorized as tradable/non-tradable and goods/services. The results show that fall in inflation gap between the partners is mainly related with the real integration while co-movement of inflation is prominently driven by the monetary policy co-movement. The product type analysis documents that inflation gap in tradable items shrinks and become more correlated with the convergence and co-movement of real variables. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Inflation gap, Co-movement, CPI sub-items, Turkey |
| JEL: | E31 F14 F4 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2121&r= |
| By: | Jacques-François Thisse; Matthew Turner; Philip Ushchev |
| Abstract: | How do people arrange themselves when they are free to choose work and residence locations, when commuting is costly, and when increasing returns may affect production? We consider this problem when the location set is discrete and households have heterogenous preferences over workplace-residence pairs. We provide a general characterization of equilibrium throughout the parameter space. The introduction of preference heterogeneity into an otherwise conventional urban model fundamentally changes equilibrium behavior. Multiple equilibria are pervasive although stable equilibria need not exist. Stronger increasing returns to scale need not concentrate economic activity and lower commuting costs need not disperse it. The qualitative behavior of the model as returns to scale increase accords with changes in the patterns of urbanization observed in the Western world between the pre-industrial period and the present. |
| JEL: | R0 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29078&r= |
| By: | Patrick M. Kline; Evan K. Rose; Christopher R. Walters |
| Abstract: | We study the results of a massive nationwide correspondence experiment sending more than 83,000 fictitious applications with randomized characteristics to geographically dispersed jobs posted by 108 of the largest U.S. employers. Distinctively Black names reduce the probability of employer contact by 2.1 percentage points relative to distinctively white names. The magnitude of this racial gap in contact rates differs substantially across firms, exhibiting a between-company standard deviation of 1.9 percentage points. Despite an insignificant average gap in contact rates between male and female applicants, we find a between-company standard deviation in gender contact gaps of 2.7 percentage points, revealing that some firms favor male applicants while others favor women. Company-specific racial contact gaps are temporally and spatially persistent, and negatively correlated with firm profitability, federal contractor status, and a measure of recruiting centralization. Discrimination exhibits little geographical dispersion, but two digit industry explains roughly half of the cross-firm variation in both racial and gender contact gaps. Contact gaps are highly concentrated in particular companies, with firms in the top quintile of racial discrimination responsible for nearly half of lost contacts to Black applicants in the experiment. Controlling false discovery rates to the 5% level, 23 individual companies are found to discriminate against Black applicants. Our findings establish that systemic illegal discrimination is concentrated among a select set of large employers, many of which can be identified with high confidence using large scale inference methods. |
| JEL: | C11 C9 C93 J7 J71 J78 K31 K42 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29053&r= |
| By: | Susanna B. Berkouwer; Pierre E. Biscaye; Eric Hsu; Oliver W. Kim; Kenneth Lee; Edward Miguel; Catherine Wolfram |
| Abstract: | In response to the Covid-19 crisis, 186 countries implemented direct cash transfers to households, and 181 introduced in-kind programs that lowered the cost of utilities such as electricity, water, transport, and mobile money. Do cash or in-kind transfers generate greater welfare improvements? And, does a country’s financial infrastructure affect optimal aid disbursement? Through a parallel set of surveys in two urban regions in Africa—with comparable education, cell phone ownership, and electricity connectivity—we show that optimal government aid disbursement hinges on financial infrastructure. In line with economic theory favoring direct cash transfers, in a randomized experiment in Kenya 95% of urban recipients prefer mobile money over electricity transfers of a similar monetary value. But Kenya is an outlier with high mobile money adoption: this increases its value and reduces transaction costs of buying electricity credit. By contrast, in Ghana—where mobile money is less widespread and the transaction costs for buying electricity are higher—half of recipients prefer electricity transfers, and many are willing to forego significant value to receive electricity instead of mobile money. These results have several important policy implications. First, the optimal government policy in response to an economic crisis is not uniform: cash and in-kind transfers have different advantages that make each suitable for specific contexts. Second, the adoption of modern financial technologies will likely increase the efficiency of government cash transfer programs, even as in-kind transfers continue to be preferred in settings where mobile money uptake is slow. Finally, giving recipients a choice harnesses valuable local information that a policy maker may not have access to. |
| JEL: | G23 O38 Q38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29086&r= |
| By: | Eduardo Levy Yeyati |
| Abstract: | Dollarization, in its many variants, is crucial to understanding Latin American macroeconomics, as well as that of many developing countries. This paper builds a new updated dataset on dollarization, reviews its evolution in Latin America since 2000, and summarizes the lessons learned from several de-dollarizing attempts in the region, based on a three-way taxonomy: 1) attempts that focus on the macroeconomic drivers, 2) microeconomic measures that deter investors from dollarizing their financial assets and liabilities based on market incentives or regulatory limits, and 3) regulations that affect the choice of foreign currency as a means of payment or a unit of account. The study provides examples using seven cases that may be considered paradigmatic of the different dollarization varieties: Bolivia, Peru, Uruguay, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ecuador and Venezuela. |
| Date: | 2021–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000566:019460&r= |
| By: | Xavier Giroud; Simone Lenzu; Quinn Maingi; Holger Mueller |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that local productivity spillovers propagate throughout the economy through the plant-level networks of multi-region firms. Using confidential Census plant-level data, we show that large manufacturing plant openings not only raise the productivity of local plants but also of distant plants hundreds of miles away, which belong to multi-region firms that are exposed to the local productivity spillover through one of their plants. To quantify the significance of plant-level networks for the propagation and amplification of local productivity shocks, we develop and estimate a quantitative spatial model in which plants of multi-region firms are linked through shared knowledge. Our model features heterogeneous regions, which interact through goods trade and labor markets, as well as within-location, across-plant heterogeneity in productivity, wages, and employment. Counterfactual exercises show that while knowledge sharing through plant-level networks amplifies the aggregate effects of local productivity shocks, it widens economic disparities between individual workers and regions in the economy. |
| JEL: | C51 C68 E23 E24 L23 O4 R12 R13 R3 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29084&r= |
| By: | Stephen Kaplan (George Washington University); Sujeong Shim (University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has an incomplete governance architecture characterized by insufficient resources to fulfill its global financial stability mandate. We argue this institutional incompleteness influences how the IMF balances tensions between systemic risks and moral hazard, and when it surprisingly exits lending relationships. During high global contagion periods, the IMF targets stabilizing systemic risks to fulfill its mandate, granting large loans and overlooking non-compliance with conditionality. However, when the IMF perceives minimal contagion risk, it focuses on moral hazard, extending smaller loans with stricter conditionality, and willingly cuts financial ties to preserve its reputation and resources for future crises. Employing a comparative case analysis of IMF decision-making for Argentina (1998-2001) and Greece (2010-2015), we find evidence supporting our theoretical priors from content analysis of IMF executive board meeting minutes, complementary archival evidence, and field research interviews. These findings have important implications for the IMF, institutionalism, and development. |
| Keywords: | IMF; lender of last resort; financial crises; international financial risk; contagion risk; Argentina; Greece |
| JEL: | O1 O16 O19 F21 F33 F34 F42 F49 F50 F55 F60 F65 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2021-13&r= |
| By: | Glenn Jenkins (Queen's University); Shahrzad Safaeimanesh (Eastern Mediteranean University) |
| Abstract: | Trade facilitation is important for the South African Customs Union (SACU) countries because the expansion of international trade is a priority to enhance their economic growth. Unfortunately, the high trade compliance costs facing importers and exporters operating in SACU are in conflict with this objective. This article aims to quantify the annual economic welfare gains that the member countries of SACU could realise from reforms that would reduce the documentary and border compliance time and costs. We use a partial equilibrium welfare economics framework of up-to-date sets of general equilibrium estimates of the import demand and the export supply elasticity in a country. The impact on the volume of trade flow and economic welfare is quantified to reduce documentary and border compliance time and trade compliance costs. The economic welfare changes from reducing the documentary and border compliance time and costs for imports and exports would be between US$2.2 billion and US$3.7 billion (2018 prices), or between 0.54% and 0.90% of GDP of the SACU countries. The economic welfare gains from reducing the excess administrative costs in imports and exports of SACU members would be between US$2.2 billion and US$3.7 billion (2018 prices), or between 0.54% and 0.90% of the GDP of the SACU. The most important reforms needed to realise these cost savings, including a single window administrative structure. In this case, both customs, health, welfare, and controls, as well as the payment of all duties, taxes, and licenses are handled by a single administrative office. Failure to move fast regarding such changes would have a negative impact on the well-being of SACU members. |
| Keywords: | trade facilitation, Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU), South Africa, trade compliance costs, trade reform, economic welfare gains |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1462&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Koutroukis, Theodore (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Demertzis, Michail (Democritus University of Thrace, School of Law) |
| Abstract: | This chapter aims to conceptualize the general framework of policies to support entrepreneurship and competitiveness by indicating a move from a dispersive comprehension of competitiveness towards an integrated micro-meso-macro perspective, by taking as a case study the European South. First, it presents theoretical contributions to entrepreneurship policies, which mostly suggest that intervention can be effective in a fragmentary and relatively incoherent way. Then, it counter-proposes the “competitiveness web” approach, which gives an integrated policy framework for the competitive strengthening and evolution of a socioeconomic system. In the framework of competitiveness web, we analyze and propose a micro-meso level policy via the Institutes of Local Development and Innovation (ILDI), which is a policy for empowering the local and regional business ecosystems through the enhancement of business innovation. Finally, by using the competitiveness web filter, we propose the structuration of a mechanism that could identify the level at which the socioeconomic entities in different spatial levels can articulate their policies for entrepreneurship enhancement in the micro-meso-macro integrated approach. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship Enhancement Policies; Competitiveness Web; Institutes of Local Development and Innovation (ILDI); Macro-Meso-Micro Analysis; European South; Socioeconomic Development |
| JEL: | L26 L53 |
| Date: | 2021–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_004&r= |
| By: | Srhoj, Stjepan; Kovač, Dejan; Shapiro, Jacob N.; Filer, Randall K. |
| Abstract: | Bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in such procedures impact the economic performance of participating firms in the context of Croatia, which introduced a "pre-bankruptcy settlement" (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. Local institutions left over from the communist era provide annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtor- creditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delays entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, leads to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as re- duced employment, revenue, and profits. We also track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small credi- tors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms' future prospects. |
| Keywords: | bankruptcy,insolvency,liquidation,restructuring |
| JEL: | G33 G34 D02 L38 P37 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:912&r= |
| By: | David S. Lee; Justin McCrary; Marcelo J. Moreira; Jack R. Porter |
| Abstract: | In the single-IV model, researchers commonly rely on t-ratio-based inference, even though the literature has quantified its potentially severe large-sample distortions. Building on the approach for correcting inference of Stock and Yogo (2005), we introduce the tF critical value function, leading to a minimized standard error adjustment factor that is a smooth function of the first-stage F-statistic. Applying the correction to a sample of 61 AER papers leads to a 25 percent increase in standard errors, on average. tF confidence intervals have shorter expected length than those of Anderson and Rubin (1949), whenever both are bounded intervals. |
| JEL: | C01 C1 C26 C36 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29124&r= |
| By: | Bloem, Jeffrey R. (University of Minnesota); Oswald, Andrew J. (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Governments, multinational companies, and researchers today collect unprecedented amounts of data on human feelings. These data provide information on citizens' happiness, levels of customer satisfaction, employees' satisfaction, mental stress, societal trust, and other important variables. Yet a key scientific difficulty tends to be downplayed, or even ignored, by many users of such information. Human feelings are not measured in objective cardinal units. This paper aims to address some of the ensuing empirical challenges. It suggests an analytical way to approach the scientific complications of ordinal data. The paper describes a dichotomous-around-the-median (DAM) test, which, crucially, uses information only on direction within an ordering and deliberately discards the potentially unreliable statistical information in ordered data. Applying the proposed DAM approach, the paper demonstrates that it is possible to check and replicate some of the key conclusions of previous research—including earlier work on the effects upon human well-being of higher income. |
| Keywords: | ordinal scales, satisfaction, subjective well-being, happiness, trust, corruption, robustness |
| JEL: | C18 C25 I31 I39 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14632&r= |
| By: | Gabriel Chodorow-Reich; Adam M. Guren; Timothy J. McQuade |
| Abstract: | With “2020 hindsight,” the 2000s housing cycle is not a boom-bust but rather a boom- bust-rebound at both the national level and across cities. We argue this pattern reflects a larger role for fundamentally-rooted explanations than previously thought. We construct a city-level long-run fundamental using a spatial equilibrium regression framework in which house prices are determined by local income, amenities, and supply. The fundamental predicts not only 1997-2019 price and rent growth but also the amplitude of the boom-bust-rebound and foreclosures. This evidence motivates our neo-Kindlebergerian model, in which an improvement in fundamentals triggers a boom-bust-rebound. Agents learn about the fundamentals by observing “dividends” but become over-optimistic due to diagnostic expectations. A bust ensues when over-optimistic beliefs start to correct, exacerbated by a price-foreclosure spiral that drives prices below their long-run level. The rebound follows as prices converge to a path commensurate with higher fundamental growth. The estimated model explains the boom-bust-rebound with a single fundamental shock and accounts quantitatively for cross-city patterns in the dynamics of prices and foreclosures. |
| JEL: | E32 G01 G4 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29140&r= |
| By: | Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | A high level of public services in housing, transport, education and health care is essential for liveability in urban centres, as shown in this report, with the help of European data for large cities. Inhabitants of larger cities, where the housing market is heavily commercialised in terms of the share of homeownership, and where little social housing exists, have to save on consumption items that offer a higher quality of life, such as in Italy. On the opposite side, for instance, cities in Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden and France have housing markets that are much less commercialised and where a lot of social housing exists. These are exactly the urban centres that achieve the top rankings in our new Urban Public Services and Liveability Index (UPSLIde), with Austria in first place. Over time, UPSLIde trends downward, with the ratio of expenditure on the finer things in life relative to obligatory consumption items influenced by public services provision sliding from around 70% in the late 1980s to less than 50% in the 2010s. In order for this negative trend to be reversed, public services provision needs to be stepped up and, in particular, rising housing rental costs need to be countered by more social housing construction. |
| Keywords: | Housing policy, transport policy, education policy, health policy, public services, urban well-being, index ranking, household expenditure, cities, Europe |
| JEL: | C43 D12 E21 R38 R48 H44 H51 H52 H53 H54 H75 H76 I18 I28 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:52&r= |
| By: | Vimal Balasubramaniam; John Y. Campbell; Tarun Ramadorai; Benjamin Ranish |
| Abstract: | We build a cross-sectional factor model for investors' direct stock holdings, by analogy with standard time-series factor models for stock returns. We estimate the model using data from almost 10 million retail accounts in the Indian stock market. We find that stock characteristics such as firm age and share price have strong investor clienteles associated with them. Similarly, account attributes such as account age, account size, and extreme underdiversification (holding a single stock) are associated with particular characteristic preferences. Coheld stocks tend to have higher return covariance, suggestive of the importance of clientele effects in the stock market. |
| JEL: | G11 G51 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29065&r= |
| By: | Michael J. Gropper; Camelia M. Kuhnen |
| Abstract: | Theoretically, wealthier people should buy less insurance, and should self-insure through saving instead, as insurance entails monitoring costs. Here, we use administrative data for 63,000 individuals and, contrary to theory, find that the wealthier have better life and property insurance coverage. Wealth-related differences in background risk, legal risk, liquidity constraints, financial literacy, and pricing explain only a small fraction of the positive wealth-insurance correlation. This puzzling correlation persists in individual fixed-effects models estimated using 2,500,000 person-month observations. The fact that the less wealthy have less coverage, though intuitively they benefit more from insurance, might increase financial health disparities among households. |
| JEL: | D14 G22 G51 G52 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29069&r= |
| By: | Katherine Casey; Rachel Glennerster; Edward Miguel; Maarten J. Voors |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the long-run effects of a decentralized approach to economic development, called community driven development (CDD), a prominent strategy for delivering foreign aid. Notably we revisit a randomized CDD program in Sierra Leone 11 years after launch. We estimate large persistent gains in local public goods and market activity, and modest positive effects on institutions. There is suggestive evidence that CDD slightly improved communities’ response to the 2014 Ebola epidemic. We compare estimates to the forecasts of experts from Sierra Leone and abroad, working in policy and academia, and find that local policymakers are overly optimistic about CDD’s effectiveness. |
| JEL: | H41 I25 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29079&r= |
| By: | Felix Brandt; Patrick Lederer |
| Abstract: | Gibbard and Satterthwaite have shown that the only single-valued social choice functions (SCFs) that satisfy non-imposition (i.e., the function's range coincides with its codomain) and strategyproofness (i.e., voters are never better off by misrepresenting their preferences) are dictatorships. In this paper, we consider set-valued social choice correspondences (SCCs) that are strategyproof according to Fishburn's preference extension and, in particular, the top cycle, an attractive SCC that returns the maximal elements of the transitive closure of the weak majority relation. Our main theorem implies that, under mild conditions, the top cycle is the only non-imposing strategyproof SCC whose outcome only depends on the quantified pairwise comparisons between alternatives. This result effectively turns the Gibbard-Satterthwaite impossibility into a complete characterization of the top cycle by moving from SCFs to SCCs. It is obtained as a corollary of a more general characterization of strategyproof SCCs. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04622&r= |
| By: | Shuhei Aoki |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I construct a growth model of the Great Divergence, which formalizes Pomeranz's (2000) hypothesis that the relief of land constraints in Europe caused divergence in economic growth between Europe and China since the 19th century. The model has agricultural and manufacturing sectors. The agricultural sector produces subsistence goods from land, intermediate goods made in the manufacturing sector, and labor. The manufacturing sector produces the goods from labor, and its productivity grows through learning-by-doing. Households make fertility decisions. In the model, a large exogenous positive shock in land supply makes the transition of the economy from the Malthusian state, in which all workers are engaged in agricultural production and per capita income is constant, to the non-Malthusian state, in which the share of workers engaging in manufacturing production gradually increases and per capita income grows at a roughly constant growth rate. The quantitative predictions of the model provide several insights on the cause of the Great Divergence. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03110&r= |
| By: | Raquel Fernández; Sahar Parsa |
| Abstract: | Attitudes towards same-sex relationships in the US have changed radically over a relatively short period of time. After remaining fairly constant for over two decades, opinions became more favorable starting in 1992—a presidential election year in which the Democratic and Republican parties took opposing stands over the status of gay people in society. What roles did political parties and their leaders play in this process of cultural change? Using a variety of techniques including machine learning, we show that the partisan opinion gap emerged substantially prior to 1992—in the mid 1980s —and did not increase as a result of the political debates in 1992-'93. Furthermore, we identify people with a college-and-above education as the potential "leaders" of the process of partisan divergence. |
| JEL: | P16 Z1 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29062&r= |
| By: | Martin Richardson |
| Abstract: | We suppose that expert witnesses are, generically, either honest in their assessment of a fact situation or are mercenary ‘hired guns’ that advocate for their retaining party. The type of a witness is known to law firms, who engage with them repeatedly, but not to courts. If the only way an honest witness can credibly reveal their type to a court is by siding with the opposing party then the question arises of why a law firm would ever retain an honest expert. We show that it can act as a signaling device in a game between the law firms to communicate private information regarding a party’s confidence in winning the case. Our results indicate, amongst other things, that the ‘English’ rule of costs allocation can make a socially desirable separating equilibrium less likely, compared to the ‘American’ rule. |
| Keywords: | expert witnesses, signaling, litigation |
| JEL: | K41 D82 C72 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2021-678&r= |
| By: | Bruce Knuteson |
| Abstract: | The world's stock markets display a strikingly suspicious, decades long pattern of overnight and intraday returns that nobody (other than us) has plausibly explained and that nobody (other than us) has clearly and persistently alerted you to. We use correspondence on this topic over the past five years to show that the silence of others on this issue does not arise from their having a good reason to believe this pattern is fine. Separately, and regardless of whether this pattern turns out to be fine, we have documented that people in a position to alert you to the presence of strikingly suspicious return patterns in the world's stock markets that nobody can innocuously explain are aware of this issue, have no good reason to believe it is not a problem, and chose to not tell you. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12516&r= |
| By: | Christopher P Chambers; Federico Echenique |
| Abstract: | Given demand data for a group of agents, we seek to make counterfactual welfare statements. Our main result considers whether there are convex preferences for which some candidate allocation is Pareto optimal. We show that this candidate allocation is possibly efficient if and only if it is efficient for the incomplete relation derived from the revealed preference relations and convexity. Similar ideas are used to address related questions: when the Kaldor criterion may be used to make welfare comparisons, what prices can be Walrasian equilibrium prices, and the possibility of a representative consumer when the income distribution is endogenous. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03277&r= |
| By: | Marcelo A. Fernandez; Kirill Rudov; Leeat Yariv |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of incomplete information on centralized one-to-one matching markets. We focus on the commonly used Deferred Acceptance mechanism (Gale and Shapley, 1962). We show that many complete-information results are fragile to a small infusion of uncertainty about others' preferences. |
| JEL: | C78 D47 D82 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29043&r= |
| By: | Rida Laraki; Estelle Varloot |
| Abstract: | In the problem of aggregating experts' probabilistic predictions over an ordered set of outcomes, we introduce the axiom of level-strategy\-proofness (level-SP) and prove that it is a natural notion with several applications. Moreover, it is a robust concept as it implies incentive compatibility in a rich domain of single-peakedness over the space of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). This contrasts with the literature which assumes single-peaked preferences over the space of probability distributions. Our main results are: (1) a reduction of our problem to the aggregation of CDFs; (2) the axiomatic characterization of level-SP probability aggregation functions with and without the addition of other axioms; (3) impossibility results which provide bounds for our characterization; (4) the axiomatic characterization of two new and practical level-SP methods: the proportional-cumulative method and the middlemost-cumulative method; and (5) the application of proportional-cumulative to extend approval voting, majority rule, and majority judgment methods to situations where voters/experts are uncertain about how to grade the candidates/alternatives to be ranked.\footnote{We are grateful to Thomas Boyer-Kassem, Roger Cooke, Aris Filos-Ratsikas, Herv\'e Moulin, Clemens Puppe and some anonymous EC2021 referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.} \keywords{Probability Aggregation Functions \and ordered Set of Alternatives \and Level Strategy-Proofness \and Proportional-Cumulative \and Middlemost-Cumulative} |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04705&r= |
| By: | Melise Jaud; Madina Kukenova; Martin Strieborny |
| Abstract: | We find that foreign investors facilitate efficiency-enhancing structural change in the recipient countries. After countries liberalize their stock markets and allow foreign investors to acquire equity stakes in domestic firms, products that do not correspond to the liberalizing countries' comparative advantage disappear disproportionately faster from their export portfolios. At the same time, the overall long-term export performance of the liberalizing countries improves. Domestic stock market development does not play the same disciplining role in forcing termination of inefficient exports, suggesting a unique role for foreign investors in improving resource allocation in the real economy. |
| Keywords: | financial liberalization and structural change, disciplining role of foreign investors, export dynamics |
| JEL: | G15 F65 O16 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2021_15&r= |
| By: | George Abuselidze; Mariam Msakhuradze |
| Abstract: | The work "International Taxation and its impact on Georgian Business Subjects" discusses the essence, types of international taxation and ways to prevent it. Object of international taxation, taxable base and rates, features based on the taxpayer. The approaches of states and its impact on the activities of business entities. The aim of the work was to study the theoretical and methodological bases of international taxation in the tax system of Georgia and to present the existing problems. To get acquainted with the activities of the free industrial zones in our country and to evaluate them. Sharing opinions and expressing one's attitude towards it. The work presents the opinion on the impact of the approaches and recommendations of our country's legislation on international taxation on the business sector of Georgia to correct the current situation. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02956&r= |
| By: | Guillermo Angeris; Akshay Agrawal; Alex Evans; Tarun Chitra; Stephen Boyd |
| Abstract: | The rise of Ethereum and other blockchains that support smart contracts has led to the creation of decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as Uniswap, Balancer, Curve, mStable, and SushiSwap, which enable agents to trade cryptocurrencies without trusting a centralized authority. While traditional exchanges use order books to match and execute trades, DEXs are typically organized as constant function market makers (CFMMs). CFMMs accept and reject proposed trades based on the evaluation of a function that depends on the proposed trade and the current reserves of the DEX. For trades that involve only two assets, CFMMs are easy to understand, via two functions that give the quantity of one asset that must be tendered to receive a given quantity of the other, and vice versa. When more than two assets are being exchanged, it is harder to understand the landscape of possible trades. We observe that various problems of choosing a multi-asset trade can be formulated as convex optimization problems, and can therefore be reliably and efficiently solved. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12484&r= |
| By: | Bolotova, Yuliya V. |
| Abstract: | During the recent decade a group of large meat processors in the U.S. broiler and pork industries implemented a series of production control practices at various stages of the broiler and pork supply chains. Direct and indirect buyers of broilers and pork filed class action antitrust lawsuits alleging that by implementing these production control practices the meat processors engaged in unlawful conspiracies with the purpose of fixing, increasing, and stabilizing prices of broilers and pork and thus violated Section 1 of the Sherman Act. The research presented in the paper conducts an econometric analysis of price behavior in the U.S. broiler and pork industries during the periods of alleged price-fixing cartels and prior (more competitive) periods. The empirical evidence presented in the paper suggests the following. The wholesale pricing of pork by pork processors is consistent with an oligopoly pricing during both the pre-cartel and cartel periods. The retail pricing of pork by food retailers is consistent with a perfectly competitive pricing during both analyzed periods. The retail pricing of broilers by food retailers is consistent with a monopoly pricing during the pre-cartel period and with a monopoly and an oligopoly pricing during the cartel period. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313136&r= |
| By: | Sugata Marjit; Suryaprakash Mishra |
| Abstract: | Informality of markets is largely perceived as undesirable. Yet, ample evidence suggests that the informal sector contributes substantially in terms of income and employment in the entire developing world. In this paper, tax evaded income is invested in the informal credit market which in turn determines demand for labor in the informal sector and hence income of informal workers. Political authority cares about lost tax revenue due to evasion but is also concerned with politically adverse consequence of lower income of informal labor due to lack of investment in the informal sector. This trade off determines an optimum size of the informal credit market and the informal economy. The size is sensitive and non–monotonic with respect to changes in the tax rate and size of the labor force, depending on the tax revenue effect of tax policy, labor demand political sensitivity of the govt. towards lower wage in the informal sector. |
| Keywords: | tax evasion, underreporting of income, informal credit market, political economy perspective |
| JEL: | D78 H25 H26 H32 I18 O17 P48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9252&r= |
| By: | Michael S. Delgado; Meilin Ma; H. Holly Wang |
| Abstract: | We use a temporary ban on inter-province shipping of live hogs induced by the 2018 outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China as a natural experiment to study spatial mechanisms behind the dynamics of market integration. With a unique dataset of weekly provincial hog prices, we employ a novel spatial network model to estimate the strength of price co-movement across provinces pre and post the ban. Results indicate that, in the highly integrated national market prior to the ban, longer geographical distances between two provinces did not weaken the strength of their price linkage. The ban broken down spatial integration. Longer distances became a significant obstacle to spatial price linkage in the post-ban periods, implying faster re-integration of hog prices between proximate provinces than remote ones. The negative effect of distance can be rationalized by the interplay between arbitrage opportunities and imperfect information. Our findings highlight information transparency as a key to market integration post shipping bans used to curb animal pandemics like ASF. |
| JEL: | C22 C23 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29141&r= |
| By: | Wayne Yuan Gao |
| Abstract: | We propose a theoretical framework under which preference profiles can be meaningfully compared. Specifically, given a finite set of feasible allocations and a preference profile, we first define a ranking vector of an allocation as the vector of all individuals' rankings of this allocation. We then define a partial order on preference profiles and write "$P \geq P^{'}$", if there exists an onto mapping $\psi$ from the Pareto frontier of $P^{'}$ onto the Pareto frontier of $P$, such that the ranking vector of any Pareto efficient allocation $x$ under $P^{'}$ is weakly dominated by the ranking vector of the image allocation $\psi(x)$ under $P$. We provide a characterization of the maximal and minimal elements under the partial order. In particular, we illustrate how an \emph{individualistic} form of social preferences can be $\trianglerighteqslant$-maximal in a specific setting. We also discuss how the framework can be further generalized to incorporate additional economic ingredients. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.08465&r= |
| By: | Angelo M. Fasolo; Flávia M. Graminho; Saulo B. Bastos |
| Abstract: | Central bank communication is a key tool in managing ination expectations. This paper proposes a hierarchical Latent Dirichlet Allocation (hLDA) model combined with feature selection techniques to allow an endogenous selection of topic structures associated with documents published by Banco Central do Brasil's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). These computational linguistic techniques allow building measures of the content and tone of Copom's minutes and statements. The effects of the tone are measured in different dimensions such as inflation, inflation expectations, economic activity, and economic uncertainty. Beyond the impact on the economy, the hLDA model is used to evaluate the coherence between the statements and the minutes of Copom's meetings. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:555&r= |
| By: | Lucas Boucaud (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | In this ethnographic research, we will approach the non-financial reporting (NFR) as a management practice that manipulates representations. We will mobilize the structuration theory (Giddens, 1984) to show that NFR regulatory framework fuel a duality. Our results show that the regulatory framework empowers the actors in the implementation of a centralized CSR management system. NFR framework enable the assessment of the "mandate" (Girin, 1995) and constraint the steering of the "agencement organisationnel". The NFR enable the production of representations of the activity that allow leaders and support functions far removed from field experience to act in their own environment favorizing their own issues. |
| Abstract: | Dans cette recherche ethnographique nous appréhenderons le reporting extra-financier (REF) comme une pratique de gestion manipulant des représentations. Nous mobiliserons la théorie de la structuration (Giddens, 1984) pour montrer que le cadre réglementaire du REF, nourrit une dualité. Nos résultats montrent que ce cadre habilite les acteurs dans la mise en place d'un système de contrôle centralisé de la RSE mais contraint le pilotage situé. Le cadre du REF habilite la pratique d'évaluation du « mandat » (Girin, 1995) et contraint le pilotage de l' « agencement organisationnel ». Le REF permet de produire des représentations de l'activité permettant aux dirigeants et fonctionnels éloignés de l'expérience de terrain d'agir dans leur environnement, pour leurs propres enjeux. |
| Keywords: | Reporting extra-financier - RSE,DPEF,Structuration,Représentations,mandat |
| Date: | 2021–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03278759&r= |
| By: | Huseyin Gurkan (ESMT European School of Management and Technology); Francis de Véricourt (ESMT European School of Management and Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how firms that lack expertise in machine learning (ML) can leverage the so-called AI Flywheel effect. This effect designates a virtuous cycle by which, as an ML product is adopted and new user data are fed back to the algorithm, the product improves, enabling further adoptions. However, managing this feedback loop is difficult, especially when the algorithm is contracted out. Indeed, the additional data that the AI Flywheel effect generates may change the provider's incentives to improve the algorithm over time. We formalize this problem in a simple two-period moral hazard framework that captures the main dynamics among ML, data acquisition, pricing, and contracting. We find that the firm's decisions crucially depend on how the amount of data on which the machine is trained interacts with the provider's effort. If this effort has a more (less) significant impact on accuracy for larger volumes of data, the firm underprices (overprices) the product. Interestingly, these distortions sometimes improve social welfare, which accounts for the customer surplus and profits of both the firm and provider. Further, the interaction between incentive issues and the positive externalities of the AI Flywheel effect has important implications for the firm's data collection strategy. In particular, the firm can boost its profit by increasing the product's capacity to acquire usage data only up to a certain level. If the product collects too much data per user, the firm's profit may actually decrease, i.e., more data is not necessarily better. |
| Keywords: | Data, machine learning, data product, pricing, incentives, contracting |
| Date: | 2020–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esm:wpaper:esmt-20-01_r3&r= |
| By: | Wheatcroft, Edward |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts for the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the match statistics in advance, highly informative forecasts of the match outcome could be made. Whilst, in practice, match statistics are clearly never available prior to the match, this leads to a simple philosophy. If match statistics can be predicted pre-match, and if those predictions are accurate enough, it follows that informative match forecasts can be made. Two approaches to the prediction of match statistics are demonstrated: Generalised Attacking Performance (GAP) ratings and a set of ratings based on the Bivariate Poisson model which are named Bivariate Attacking (BA) ratings. It is shown that both approaches provide a suitable methodology for predicting match statistics in advance and that they are informative enough to provide information beyond that reflected in the odds. A long term and robust gambling profit is demonstrated when the forecasts are combined with two betting strategies. |
| Keywords: | probability forecasting; sports forecasting; football forecasting; football predictions; soccer predictions |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111495&r= |
| By: | Howard Kunreuther; Lynn Conell-Price; Paul Kovacs; Katsuichiro Goda |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the design and analysis of a web-based choice experiment that examines how the demand for earthquake protection in Quebec and British Columbia is influenced by the default option and the structure of the insurance plan. Homeowners in both provinces were given the opportunity to purchase protection against earthquake losses when presented with one of the following options: the current private insurance plan, a high deductible private insurance plan, and a proposed public-private risk pool. The default frame was changed so the homeowner could either opt-in by purchasing this coverage or opt-out of being given this protection and receiving a premium discount. Assigning participants to a public-private risk pool rather than the current private insurance plan increases the likelihood of purchasing earthquake protection by 151%. The opt-out frame leads to a likelihood greater than 1.6 of purchasing coverage relative to the opt-in frame when given the same plan structure. The policy implications of this finding are discussed. |
| JEL: | D81 G22 H12 H44 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29144&r= |
| By: | Bertrand Garbinti (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Frédérique Savignac (Banque de france - Banque de France) |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03307377&r= |
| By: | Joshua S. Gans |
| Abstract: | Vaccine hesitancy is modelled as an endogenous decision within a behavioural SIR model with endogenous agent activity. It is shown that policy interventions that directly target costs associated with vaccine adoption may counter vaccine hesitancy while those that manipulate the utility of unvaccinated agents will either lead to the same or lower rates of vaccine adoption. This latter effect arises with vaccine passports whose effects are mitigated in equilibrium by reductions in viral/disease prevalence that themselves reduce the demand for vaccination. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29075&r= |
| By: | Jing Tian; Jan P.A.M. Jacobs; Denise R. Osborn |
| Abstract: | Multivariate analysis can help to focus on economic phenomena, including trend and cyclical movements. To allow for potential correlation with seasonality, the present paper studies a three component multivariate unobserved component model, focusing on the case of quarterly data and showing that economic restrictions, including common trends and common cycles, can ensure identification. Applied to seasonal aggregate gender employment in Australia, a bivariate male/female model with a common cycle is preferred to both univariate correlated component and bivariate uncorrelated component specifications. This model evidences distinct gender-based seasonal patterns with seasonality declining over time for females and increasing for males. |
| Keywords: | trend-cycle-seasonal decomposition, multivariate unobserved components models, correlated component models, identification, gender employment, Australia |
| JEL: | C22 E24 E32 E37 F01 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-72&r= |
| By: | an Ha Truong (VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Purpose: As governments force electricity producers to use more renewable energy sources, over a hundred thermal power plants in high-income countries turned to biomass as a partial or complete replacement for coal. Is the co-firing technology appropriate for Vietnam? Method: The technology assessment study is conducted by building an integrated lifecycle model of the sector, tracking material and financial flows from fuel sourcing to airborne emissions, simulating the economics, environmental and social implications of blending 5% of rice straw in two different existing coal power plants in Vietnam. Findings: The business value of co-firing is positive –straw is cheaper than coal–. It is likely not large enough to motivate the stakeholders. Co-firing creates an external social benefit by reducing air-borne pollution and creating jobs. It reduces the pollution caused by open field straw burning. We found the external social benefit to be several times larger than the private business value. Within that external benefit, the social value of avoided SO2, PM2.5 and NOx emissions dominates the social value of avoided CO2 emissions. The net job creation effect is positive: collecting straw creates more employment than using less coal destroys. Originality and limitations: This is the first technology assessment of co-firing biomass in coal power plants in Vietnam and one of the first for a subtropical middle-income country. The study only considers rice straw, and it does not address the role of government nor the biomass market functioning. Conclusion: The price of coal is the primary determinant of co-firing business value. There is an empirical economic justification for a public intervention to promote co-firing biomass in Vietnam. Local air quality goals, rather than greenhouse gas reduction policy, can justify such regulations. |
| Keywords: | Biomass cofiring,Emission control,Coal power,Lifecycle Assessment LCA,Technology assessment |
| Date: | 2021–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-03277278&r= |
| By: | De Grauwe, Paul; Foresti, Pasquale |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the effects of government spending with a behavioral macroeconomic model in which agents have limited cognitive capabilities and use simple heuristics to form their expectations. However, thanks to a learning mechanism, agents can revise their forecasting rule according to its performance. This feature produces endogenous and self-fulfilling waves of optimistic and pessimistic beliefs (animal spirits). This framework allows us to show that the short-run spending multiplier is state dependent. The multiplier is stronger under either extreme optimism or pessimism and reduces in periods of tranquility. Furthermore, the more the central bank focuses on output gap stabilization, the smaller the multiplier. We also show that periods of increasing public debt are characterized by intense pessimism, while intense optimism occurs in periods of decreasing debt. This allows us to show that governments face a trade-off between the stabilization of the animal spirits and the stabilization of public debt. Then, we show that the existence of this trade-off has implications also for the stabilization of the output gap. |
| Keywords: | animal spirits; behavioral DSGE model; fiscal policy; policy state-dependent effects; public debt; spending multiplier |
| JEL: | E10 E32 E62 D83 |
| Date: | 2020–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103500&r= |
| By: | Timothy Guinnane |
| Abstract: | Economists have reported econometric results that rely on estimates of the population of every country in the world for the past two thousand or more years. The underlying source is usually McEvedy and Jones’ Atlas of World Population History, published in 1978. The McEvedy and Jones data have important weaknesses. The reported populations for years before 1500 are, for most countries, little more than guesses, as are many estimates for more recent times. Research relying on McEvedy and Jones cannot take advantage of improved estimates reported since 1978. McEvedy and Jones often infer population sizes from their view of a particular economy, making their estimates poor proxies for economic growth. Although some economists treat the African data as pertaining to modern nation-states, in most cases it is not. With a few welcome exceptions, economists using this source do not take the measurement error issues seriously. Results that rest on McEvedy and Jones are unreliable. The willingness to rely on such data discourages effort to provide serious improvements. |
| Keywords: | long-run growth, historical populations, measurement error, McEvedy and Jones |
| JEL: | N00 N10 O40 O47 J10 C18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9242&r= |
| By: | Xiaohong Chen; Timothy Christensen; Sid Kankanala |
| Abstract: | We introduce computationally simple, data-driven procedures for estimation and inference on a structural function $h_0$ and its derivatives in nonparametric models using instrumental variables. Our first procedure is a bootstrap-based, data-driven choice of sieve dimension for sieve nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) estimators. When implemented with this data-driven choice, sieve NPIV estimators of $h_0$ and its derivatives are adaptive: they converge at the best possible (i.e., minimax) sup-norm rate, without having to know the smoothness of $h_0$, degree of endogeneity of the regressors, or instrument strength. Our second procedure is a data-driven approach for constructing honest and adaptive uniform confidence bands (UCBs) for $h_0$ and its derivatives. Our data-driven UCBs guarantee coverage for $h_0$ and its derivatives uniformly over a generic class of data-generating processes (honesty) and contract at, or within a logarithmic factor of, the minimax sup-norm rate (adaptivity). As such, our data-driven UCBs deliver asymptotic efficiency gains relative to UCBs constructed via the usual approach of undersmoothing. In addition, both our procedures apply to nonparametric regression as a special case. We use our procedures to estimate and perform inference on a nonparametric gravity equation for the intensive margin of firm exports and find evidence against common parameterizations of the distribution of unobserved firm productivity. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11869&r= |
| By: | Stjepan Srhoj; Dejan Kovač; Jacob N. Shapiro; Randall Filer |
| Abstract: | Bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in such procedures impact the economic performance of participating firms in the context of Croatia, which introduced a “pre-bankruptcy settlement” (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. Local institutions left over from the communist era provide annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtor-creditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delays entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, leads to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as re-duced employment, revenue, and profits. We also track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small creditors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms’ future prospects. |
| Keywords: | bankruptcy, insolvency, liquidation, restructuring |
| JEL: | G33 G34 D02 L38 P37 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9248&r= |
| By: | Bolotova, Yuliya V. |
| Abstract: | During the recent decade a group of large meat processors in the U.S. broiler and pork industries implemented a series of production control practices at various stages of the broiler and pork supply chains. Direct and indirect buyers of broilers and pork filed class action antitrust lawsuits alleging that by implementing these production control practices the meat processors engaged in unlawful conspiracies with the purpose of fixing, increasing, and stabilizing prices of broilers and pork and thus violated Section 1 of the Sherman Act. The research presented in the paper conducts an econometric analysis of price behavior in the U.S. broiler and pork industries during the periods of alleged price-fixing cartels and prior (more competitive) periods. The empirical evidence presented in the paper suggests the following. The wholesale pricing of pork by pork processors is consistent with an oligopoly pricing during both the pre-cartel and cartel periods. The retail pricing of pork by food retailers is consistent with a perfectly competitive pricing during both analyzed periods. The retail pricing of broilers by food retailers is consistent with a monopoly pricing during the pre-cartel period and with a monopoly and an oligopoly pricing during the cartel period. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313133&r= |
| By: | George A. Alessandria; Shafaat Y. Khan; Armen Khederlarian; Kim J. Ruhl; Joseph B. Steinberg |
| Abstract: | We study the growth of Chinese imports into the United States from autarky during 1950-1970 to about 15 percent of overall imports in 2008, taking advantage of the rich heterogeneity in trade policy and trade growth across products during this period. Central to our analysis is an accounting for the dynamics of trade, trade policy, and trade-policy expectations. We isolate the lagged effects of past reforms and the current effects of uncertainty about future reforms. We build a multi-industry, heterogeneous-firm model with a dynamic export participation decision to estimate a path of trade-policy expectations. We find that being granted Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status in 1980 was largely a surprise and that, in the early stages, this reform had a high probability of being reversed. The likelihood of reversal dropped considerably during the mid 1980s, and, despite China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, changed little throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s. Thus, although uncertainty depressed trade substantially following the 1980 liberalization, much of the trade growth that followed China's WTO accession was a delayed response to previous reforms rather than a response to declining uncertainty. |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F62 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29122&r= |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Cowell, Frank |
| Abstract: | Approaches to measuring health inequalities are often problematic because they use methods that are inappropriate for categorical data. In this paper we focus on “pure” or univariate health inequality (rather than income-related or bivariate health inequality) and use a concept of individual status that allows a consistent treatment of such data. We take alternative versions of the status concept and apply methods for treating categorical data to examine self-assessed health inequality for the countries included in the World Health Survey. We also use regression analysis on the apparent determinants of these health inequality estimates. We show that the status concept that is used will affect health-inequality rankings across countries and the way health inequality is related to countries’ median health, income, demographics and governance. |
| Keywords: | health inequality; categorical data; entropy measures; health surveys; upward status; downward status; Springer deal |
| JEL: | D63 H23 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110484&r= |
| By: | Carol Alexander; Arben Imeraj |
| Abstract: | Most trading in cryptocurrency options is on inverse products, so called because the contract size is denominated in US dollars and they are margined and settled in crypto, typically bitcoin or ether. Their popularity stems from allowing professional traders in bitcoin or ether options to avoid transferring fiat currency to and from the exchanges. We derive new analytic pricing and hedging formulae for inverse options under the assumption that the underlying follows a geometric Brownian motion. The boundary conditions and hedge ratios exhibit relatively complex but very important new features which warrant further analysis and explanation. We also illustrate some inconsistencies, exhibited in time series of Deribit bitcoin option implied volatilities, which indicate that traders may be applying direct option hedging and valuation methods erroneously. This could be because they are unaware of the correct, inverse option characteristics which are derived in this paper. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12041&r= |
| By: | Orazio Attanasio; Lina Cardona Sosa; Carlos Medina; Costas Meghir; Christian Manuel Posso-Suárez |
| Abstract: | Conditional Cash transfer (CCT) programs have been shown to have positive effects on a variety of outcomes including education, consumption and health visits, amongst others. We estimate the long-run impacts of the urban version of Familias en Acción, the Colombian CCT program on crime, teenage pregnancy, high school dropout and college enrollment using a Regression Discontinuity design on administrative data. ITT estimates show a reduction on arrest rates of 2.7pp for men and a reduction on teenage pregnancy of 2.3pp for women. High school dropout rates were reduced by 5.8pp and college enrollment was increased by 1.7pp for men. |
| JEL: | D04 I23 I28 I31 J13 K42 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29056&r= |
| By: | Jinyuan Chang; Zhentao Shi; Jia Zhang |
| Abstract: | Models defined by moment conditions are at the center of structural econometric estimation, but economic theory is mostly silent about moment selection. A large pool of valid moments can potentially improve estimation efficiency, whereas a few invalid ones may undermine consistency. This paper investigates the empirical likelihood estimation of these moment-defined models in high-dimensional settings. We propose a penalized empirical likelihood (PEL) estimation and show that it achieves the oracle property under which the invalid moments can be consistently detected. While the PEL estimator is asymptotically normally distributed, a projected PEL procedure can further eliminate its asymptotic bias and provide more accurate normal approximation to the finite sample distribution. Simulation exercises are carried out to demonstrate excellent numerical performance of these methods in estimation and inference. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03382&r= |
| By: | Stylianos Papageorgiou; Dimitrios Xefteris |
| Abstract: | Skills obtained by a national strategy, plus intrinsic skills, contribute to each household's financial literacy, which is shown to determine whether and to what extent a household invests. Ends-against-the-middle preferences arise as to the strategy's funding: Households with too low or too high total skills have a decreasing utility, as opposed to households with moderate skills. Moreover, the property of single-peaked preferences is violated. Our central result is that, despite the lack of well-behaved preferences, competing office-motivated political candidates propose the same-efficient-funding level under plausible assumptions, including that they are sufficiently differentiated about issues other than financial literacy. |
| Keywords: | financial literacy, electoral competition, ends-against-the-middle, differentiated candidates |
| JEL: | G53 D72 H52 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:04-2021&r= |
| By: | Liang Zeng; Lei Wang; Hui Niu; Jian Li; Ruchen Zhang; Zhonghao Dai; Dewei Zhu; Ling Wang |
| Abstract: | Price movement forecasting aims at predicting the future trends of financial assets based on the current market conditions and other relevant information. Recently, machine learning(ML) methods have become increasingly popular and achieved promising results for price movement forecasting in both academia and industry. Most existing ML solutions formulate the forecasting problem as a classification(to predict the direction) or a regression(to predict the return) problem in the entire set of training data. However, due to the extremely low signal-to-noise ratio and stochastic nature of financial data, good trading opportunities are extremely scarce. As a result, without careful selection of potentially profitable samples, such ML methods are prone to capture the patterns of noises instead of real signals. To address the above issues, we propose a novel framework-LARA(Locality-Aware Attention and Adaptive Refined Labeling), which contains the following three components: 1)Locality-aware attention automatically extracts the potentially profitable samples by attending to their label information in order to construct a more accurate classifier on these selected samples. 2)Adaptive refined labeling further iteratively refines the labels, alleviating the noise of samples. 3)Equipped with metric learning techniques, Locality-aware attention enjoys task-specific distance metrics and distributes attention on potentially profitable samples in a more effective way. To validate our method, we conduct comprehensive experiments on three real-world financial markets: ETFs, the China's A-share stock market, and the cryptocurrency market. LARA achieves superior performance compared with the time-series analysis methods and a set of machine learning based competitors on the Qlib platform. Extensive ablation studies and experiments demonstrate that LARA indeed captures more reliable trading opportunities. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11972&r= |
| By: | Lee G. Branstetter; Jong-Rong Chen; Britta Glennon; Nikolas Zolas |
| Abstract: | Does the offshoring of production degrade or enhance the innovative capabilities of manufacturing firms? We contribute to this debate by exploiting a policy shock that differentially affected the ability of Taiwanese firms to offshore some products to China. We find causal evidence that offshoring impacts both the level and nature of innovation. In the technologies directly related to product categories that could be offshored more easily after the policy shock, overall innovation levels decline and innovative effort shifts away from product innovation and towards process innovation. However, we also find evidence of a second-order positive effect of offshoring on the levels of innovation—particularly product innovation—in other parts of the firm’s portfolio. These results are consistent with the notion that offshoring production induces a complex reallocation of innovation effort within the firm, both across and within technology categories. Our paper examines this reallocation in the context of Taiwanese electronics firms, and introduces new methods that could be used to study post-offshoring reallocations of innovative effort in other contexts. |
| JEL: | F2 F6 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29117&r= |
| By: | Michael Barnett; William Brock; Lars P. Hansen |
| Abstract: | The design and conduct of climate change policy necessarily confronts uncertainty along multiple fronts. We explore the consequences of ambiguity over various sources and configurations of models that impact how economic opportunities could be damaged in the future. We appeal to decision theory under risk, model ambiguity and misspecification concerns to provide an economically motivated approach to uncertainty quantification. We show how this approach reduces the many facets of uncertainty into a low dimensional characterization that depends on the uncertainty aversion of a decision-maker or fictitious social planner. In our computations, we take inventory of three alternative channels of uncertainty and provide a novel way to assess them. These include i) carbon dynamics that capture how carbon emissions impact atmospheric carbon in future time periods; ii) temperature dynamics that depict how atmospheric carbon alters temperature in future time periods; iii) damage functions that quantify how temperature changes diminish economic opportunities. We appeal to geoscientific modeling to quantify the first two channels. We show how these uncertainty sources interact for a social planner looking to design a prudent approach to the social pricing of carbon emissions. |
| JEL: | D81 E61 G12 G18 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29064&r= |
| By: | Christoph Albert; Albrecht Glitz; Joan Llull |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that the wage assimilation of immigrants is the result of the intricate interplay between individual skill accumulation and dynamic equilibrium effects in the labor market. When immigrants and natives are imperfect substitutes, increasing immigrant inflows widen the wage gap between them. Using a simple production function framework, we show that this labor market competition channel can explain about one quarter of the large increase in the average immigrant-native wage gap in the United States between the 1960s and 1990s arrival cohorts. Once competition effects and compositional changes in education and region of origin are accounted for, we find that the unobservable skills of newly arriving immigrants increased over time rather than decreased as traditionally argued in the literature. We corroborate this finding by documenting closely matching patterns for immigrants’ English language profficiency. |
| Keywords: | immigrant assimilation, labor market competition, cohort sizes, imperfect substitution, general and specific skills |
| JEL: | J21 J22 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9231&r= |
| By: | Ruoxuan Xiong; Allison Koenecke; Michael Powell; Zhu Shen; Joshua T. Vogelstein; Susan Athey |
| Abstract: | Analyzing observational data from multiple sources can be useful for increasing statistical power to detect a treatment effect; however, practical constraints such as privacy considerations may restrict individual-level information sharing across data sets. This paper develops federated methods that only utilize summary-level information from heterogeneous data sets. Our federated methods provide doubly-robust point estimates of treatment effects as well as variance estimates. We derive the asymptotic distributions of our federated estimators, which are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding estimators from the combined, individual-level data. We show that to achieve these properties, federated methods should be adjusted based on conditions such as whether models are correctly specified and stable across heterogeneous data sets. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11732&r= |
| By: | Philipp F. M. Baumann; Enzo Rossi; Alexander Volkmann |
| Abstract: | We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a large panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015. Models motivated by the economic theory are compared to a boosting algorithm, and non-linearities and structural breaks are explicitly considered. The boosting algorithm outperforms theory-based models. Further, we provide compelling evidence that the interaction of energy price and energy rents stand out among 37 explanatory variables. Other important determinants are demographic developments. Contrary to common belief, globalization and technology, public debt, central bank independence and transparency as well as countries’ political characteristics, are less relevant. Exchange rate arrangements are more important than inflation-targeting regimes. Moreover, GDP per capita is more relevant than the output gap and credit growth is generally superior to M2 growth. Many predictors exhibit a structural break since the financial crisis. In particular, credit growth has lost its grip on the inflation process. |
| Keywords: | Theories of inflation, longitudinal data, additive mixed models, model-based boosting, conditional Akaike criterion |
| JEL: | C14 C33 C52 E31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Rockerbie, Duane; Easton, Stephen |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a statistical estimate of the breakdown in race outcomes in Formula One races between the two most important inputs: driver skill and car technology. Financial data and racing results from the 2012-19 F1 seasons are used to estimate a combined driver and team censored regression model for each season. Treating each season uniquely allows for the exclusion of weather and track specific variables common to other statistical studies of F1 racing. Our use of financial data provides an answer to the economic question of how should F1 teams allocate their scarce financial resources. The so-called “80-20” rule distinguishing team effects and driver effects is found to be a very rough approximation to the output shares for teams and drivers. A strong complementarity exists between driver skill and car technology that distorts the rule. The return to driver salaries and team budgets are both positive in term of race outcomes, but at diminishing rates. |
| Keywords: | Formula one; salaries; budgets; finishes |
| JEL: | O3 Z0 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109053&r= |
| By: | Jingfeng Lu; Zongwei Lu; Christian Riis |
| Abstract: | We study a model in which before a conflict between two parties escalates into a war (in the form of an all-pay auction), a party can offer a take-it-or-leave-it bribe to the other one for a peaceful settlement. We distinguish between various degrees of peace prospects--implementability, weak security and strong security. We first characterize the necessary and sufficient conditions for peace implementability and weak security. We then show that weak security implies strong security. We also consider a requesting-a-bribe game and characterize the necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of a robust peaceful equilibrium. We find that all such robust peaceful equilibria share the same request. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11575&r= |
| By: | Jeffrey Clemens; Michael J. Wither |
| Abstract: | Interactions between redistributive policies can confront low-income households with complicated choices. We study one such interaction, namely the relationship between Medicaid eligibility thresholds and the minimum wage. A minimum wage increase reduces the number of hours a low-skilled individual can work while retaining Medicaid eligibility. We show that the empirical and welfare implications of this interaction can depend crucially on the relevance of labor market frictions. Absent frictions, affected workers may maintain Medicaid eligibility through small reductions in hours of work. With frictions, affected workers may lose Medicaid eligibility unless they leave their initial job. Empirically, we find that workers facing this scenario became less likely to participate in Medicaid, less likely to work, and more likely to spend time looking for new jobs, including search while employed. The observed outcomes suggest that low-skilled workers face substantial labor market frictions. Because adjustment is costly, tinkering with safety net program parameters that determine the location of program eligibility notches can be harmful to beneficiaries. |
| JEL: | H75 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29028&r= |
| By: | Sinha, Chetan |
| Abstract: | This article discusses the gender question which is directed towards power, whether it is family dynamics, scientific domain or another sociocultural arena. Gender was not discussed as prominently in various forums integrating neuroscience and law. The gender movement comprising feminist and queer group movement addressed various issues of prejudices in the legal domain including, the logic derived from the dominant male value system. This metatheory to critically address gender in various domains has an important role in the interdisciplinary social sciences. The context of the body in all forms were observed from the eye of the male observer rather than the eye of beholder of one’s body. The genesis of one’s existence in the context of gender was heavily theorized both in order to subjugate the matter of identity movement, ownership and self. Article discusses how the stereotypical view corresponding to the mythology and parasitic view prevalent in the history was made as fact through discourse construction, scientific appropriations, historical writings. Thus, identifying simplistic psychology of one’s agency, societal framing of the methods of socialization and institutionalizing the common sense of inferiority about one’s identity including the process of internalization along with the biological inferiority has maintained the gap in the gender equality |
| Date: | 2021–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:sza6y&r= |
| By: | Zheng Fang |
| Abstract: | This paper makes the following econometric contributions. First, we develop a unifying framework for testing shape restrictions based on the Wald principle. Second, we examine the applicability and usefulness of some prominent shape enforcing operators in implementing our test, including rearrangement and the greatest convex minorization (or the least concave majorization). In particular, the influential rearrangement operator is inapplicable due to a lack of convexity, while the greatest convex minorization is shown to enjoy the analytic properties required to employ our framework. The importance of convexity in establishing size control has been noted elsewhere in the literature. Third, we show that, despite that the projection operator may not be well-defined/behaved in general non-Hilbert parameter spaces (e.g., ones defined by uniform norms), one may nonetheless devise a powerful distance-based test by applying our framework. The finite sample performance of our test is evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations, and its empirical relevance is showcased by investigating the relationship between weekly working hours and the annual wage growth in the high-end labor market. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12494&r= |
| By: | Hamza Saad; Nagendra Nagarur; Abdulrahman Shamsan |
| Abstract: | Background and Objective: Different industries go through high-precision and complex processes that need to analyze their data and discover defects before growing up. Big data may contain large variables with missed data that play a vital role to understand what affect the quality. So, specialists of the process might be struggling to defined what are the variables that have direct effect in the process. Aim of this study was to build integrated data analysis using data mining and quality tools to improve the quality of production and process. Materials and Methods: Data collected in different steps to reduce missed data. The specialists in the production process recommended to select the most important variables from big data and then predictor screening was used to confirm 16 of 71 variables. Seven important variables built the output variable that called textile quality score. After testing ten algorithms, boosted tree and random forest were evaluated to extract knowledge. In the voting process, three variables were confirmed to use as input factors in the design of experiments. The response of design was estimated by data mining and the results were confirmed by the quality specialists. Central composite (surface response) has been run 17 times to extract the main effects and interactions on the textile quality score. Results: Current study found that a machine productivity has negative effect on the quality, so this validated by the management. After applying changes, the efficiency of production has improved 21%. Conclusion: Results confirmed a big improvement in quality processes in industrial sector. The efficiency of production improved to 21%, weaving process improved to 23% and the overall process improved to 17.06%. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07615&r= |
| By: | Lovelace, Robin; Tennekes, Martijn; Carlino, Dustin |
| Abstract: | Zones are the building blocks of urban analysis. Fields ranging from demographics to transport planning routinely use zones — spatially contiguous areal units that break-up continuous space into discrete chunks — as the foundation for diverse analysis techniques. Key methods such as origin-destination analysis and choropleth mapping rely on zones with appropriate sizes, shapes and coverage. However, existing zoning systems are sub-optimal in many urban analysis contexts, for three main reasons: 1) available administrative zoning systems are often based on somewhat arbitrary factors; 2) evidence-based zoning systems are often highly variable in size and shape, reducing their utility for inter-city comparison; and 3) official zoning systems are non-existent, not publicly available, or are too coarse, hindering urban analysis in many places, especially in low income nations. To tackle these three key issues we developed a flexible, open and scalable solution: the ClockBoard zoning system. ClockBoard consists of 12 segments divided by concentric rings of increasing distance, creating a consistent visual frame of reference for cities that is reminiscent of a clock and a dartboard. This paper outlines the design, potential uses and merits of the ClockBoard zoning system and discusses future avenues for research and development of new zoning systems based on the experience. |
| Date: | 2021–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vncgw&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This report reviews changes in today’s urban mobility landscape and the potential of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to improve travel in cities. It assesses essential governance and regulatory challenges that stakeholders must address to create a healthy ecosystem for Mobility as a Service which aligns with societal objectives and delivers clear benefits to people. |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:92-en&r= |
| By: | Lukas Boer; Lukas Menkhoff; Malte Rieth |
| Abstract: | We study the multifaceted effects and persistence of trade policy shocks on financial markets in a structural vector autoregression. The model is identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively, increasing market uncertainty, lowering interest rates, and leading to an appreciation of the US-Dollar. The effects are significant for several weeks or quarters. Regarding shock types, we reveal a dominating trade policy uncertainty shock and a weaker level shock. Chinese trade policy shocks against the US further hurt US stocks. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy shock; structural VAR; stock prices; exchange rates; interest rates; heteroskedasticity |
| JEL: | C32 F13 F51 G10 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1956&r= |
| By: | Nomikos, Goulielmos |
| Abstract: | Research in political science has shown that UN peacekeeping operations are an important tool for ending civil war violence. However, much less is known about how UN peacekeepers affect communal violence at the level of the individual, family, or community. Given that communal disputes over local issues such as land use, cattle herding, or access to resources are the main source of instability in Africa, understanding how international actors can contribute to their resolution is a pressing concern. How does the presence of UN peacekeepers affect communal violence between civilians in conflict settings? We address this question by offering a straightforward empirical test of how UN peacekeeping patrols affect the likelihood that a communal dispute will become violent in an active conflict setting with a multidimensional peacekeeping operations. We build on the literature on communal conflicts to argue that peacekeepers deter violence against violence. To test our argument, we examine the case of Mail, the site of large-scale communal violence managed by UN peacekeepers since 2013. We employ a Geographic Regression Discontinuity Design (GRDD) around the border of Mali and Burkina Faso to estimate the causal effect of deploying peacekeepers to an area with growing communal tensions. We find that the presence of peacekeepers reduces the probability of the onset of communal violence by 17%. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of this effect increases as the number of peacekeepers deployed to a given area increase. Ultimately, our research provides robust causal evidence that UN peacekeeping works at the local level. |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hmkbg&r= |
| By: | Guido Imbens; Nathan Kallus; Xiaojie Mao |
| Abstract: | We develop a new approach for identifying and estimating average causal effects in panel data under a linear factor model with unmeasured confounders. Compared to other methods tackling factor models such as synthetic controls and matrix completion, our method does not require the number of time periods to grow infinitely. Instead, we draw inspiration from the two-way fixed effect model as a special case of the linear factor model, where a simple difference-in-differences transformation identifies the effect. We show that analogous, albeit more complex, transformations exist in the more general linear factor model, providing a new means to identify the effect in that model. In fact many such transformations exist, called bridge functions, all identifying the same causal effect estimand. This poses a unique challenge for estimation and inference, which we solve by targeting the minimal bridge function using a regularized estimation approach. We prove that our resulting average causal effect estimator is root-N consistent and asymptotically normal, and we provide asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Finally, we provide extensions for the case of a linear factor model with time-varying unmeasured confounders. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03849&r= |
| By: | Stephen Keen; Timothy M. Lenton; Antoine Godin; Devrim Yilmaz; Matheus Grasselli; Timothy J. Garrett |
| Abstract: | Economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global economic production for a 3$^\circ$C rise in global average surface temperature, and 7.9% for a 6$^\circ$C rise. Such relatively trivial estimates of economic damages -- when these economists otherwise assume that human economic productivity will be an order of magnitude higher than today -- contrast strongly with predictions made by scientists of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change. Nonetheless, the coupled economic and climate models used to make such predictions have been influential in the international climate change debate and policy prescriptions. Here we review the empirical work done by economists and show that it severely underestimates damages from climate change by committing several methodological errors, including neglecting tipping points, and assuming that economic sectors not exposed to the weather are insulated from climate change. Most fundamentally, the influential Integrated Assessment Model DICE is shown to be incapable of generating an economic collapse, regardless of the level of damages. Given these flaws, economists' empirical estimates of economic damages from global warming should be rejected as unscientific, and models that have been calibrated to them, such as DICE, should not be used to evaluate economic risks from climate change, or in the development of policy to attenuate damages. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07847&r= |
| By: | Nomikos, William George |
| Abstract: | Research in political science has shown that UN peacekeeping operations are an important tool for ending civil war violence. However, much less is known about how UN peacekeepers affect communal violence at the level of the individual, family, or community. Given that communal disputes over local issues such as land use, cattle herding, or access to resources are the main source of instability in Africa, understanding how international actors can contribute to their resolution is a pressing concern. How does the presence of UN peacekeepers affect communal violence between civilians in conflict settings? We address this question by offering a straightforward empirical test of how UN peacekeeping patrols affect the likelihood that a communal dispute will become violent in an active conflict setting with a multidimensional peacekeeping operations. We build on the literature on communal conflicts to argue that peacekeepers deter violence against violence. To test our argument, we examine the case of Mail, the site of large-scale communal violence managed by UN peacekeepers since 2013. We employ a Geographic Regression Discontinuity Design (GRDD) around the border of Mali and Burkina Faso to estimate the causal effect of deploying peacekeepers to an area with growing communal tensions. We find that the presence of peacekeepers reduces the probability of the onset of communal violence by 17%. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of this effect increases as the number of peacekeepers deployed to a given area increase. Ultimately, our research provides robust causal evidence that UN peacekeeping works at the local level. |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:m7s45&r= |
| By: | Levy, Gilat; Moreno de Barreda, Inés; Razin, Ronny |
| Abstract: | We consider an information design problem in which a sender tries to persuade a receiver that has "correlation neglect", i.e. fails to understand that signals might be correlated. We show that a sender with unlimited number of signals can fully manipulate the receiver. Specifically, the sender can induce the receiver to hold any state-dependent posterior she wishes to. If the sender only wishes to induce a state-independent posterior, she can use fully correlated signals, but generally she needs to design more involved correlation structures. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111551&r= |
| By: | Arie Beresteanu |
| Abstract: | We provide a sharp identification region for discrete choice models in which consumers' preferences are not necessarily complete and only aggregate choice data is available to the analysts. Behavior with non complete preferences is modeled using an upper and a lower utility for each alternative so that non-comparability can arise. The identification region places intuitive bounds on the probability distribution of upper and lower utilities. We show that the existence of an instrumental variable can be used to reject the hypothesis that all consumers' preferences are complete, while attention sets can be used to rule out the hypothesis that all individuals cannot compare any two alternatives. We apply our methods to data from the 2018 mid-term elections in Ohio. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:7145&r= |
| By: | Rui Wang |
| Abstract: | We introduce the notion of Point in Time Economic Scenario Generation (PiT ESG) with a clear mathematical problem formulation to unify and compare economic scenario generation approaches conditional on forward looking market data. Such PiT ESGs should provide quicker and more flexible reactions to sudden economic changes than traditional ESGs calibrated solely to long periods of historical data. We specifically take as economic variable the S&P500 Index with the VIX Index as forward looking market data to compare the nonparametric filtered historical simulation, GARCH model with joint likelihood estimation (parametric), Restricted Boltzmann Machine and the conditional Variational Autoencoder (Generative Networks) for their suitability as PiT ESG. Our evaluation consists of statistical tests for model fit and benchmarking the out of sample forecasting quality with a strategy backtest using model output as stop loss criterion. We find that both Generative Networks outperform the nonparametric and classic parametric model in our tests, but that the CVAE seems to be particularly well suited for our purposes: yielding more robust performance and being computationally lighter. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.08818&r= |
| By: | Ahmed, Osama; Glauben, Thomas; Heigermoser, Maximilian; Prehn, Sören |
| Abstract: | Income growth, changing consumer preferences and technological progress are having a transformative effect on global food trade and, in particular, wheat markets. This is evidenced by two main developments: First, the growing demand for wheat in Asia and Africa is increasingly being met by the European Union (EU) and the Black Sea Region (BSR), which have replaced the United States (US) as the major players on the global wheat market. Second, and as a consequence, the Euronext futures market, which reflects the supply and demand fundamentals in the EU and the BSR, is becoming more important for international wheat price discovery. In light of these two changes, the EU and the BSR must take more responsibility for ensuring global food security and combating hunger and malnutrition. To achieve this, greater international cooperation is required, in particular between the big Western and Eastern economic powers. Unrestricted international trade is vital to ensure sufficient supply of food worldwide, while escalating economic sanctions and countersanctions endanger food security, especially in importdependent regions. Public debate on trade and economic sanctions must therefore be more objective and better take into account both regional and global needs. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamopb:41e&r= |
| By: | Garcia-Louzao, Jose (Bank of Lithuania); Hospido, Laura (Bank of Spain); Ruggieri, Alessandro (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study human capital accumulation and wage trajectories of young workers in a dual labor market. Using rich administrative data for Spain, we follow workers since labor market entry to measure experience accumulated under different contractual arrangements and relate it to current wages. We show that returns to experience accumulated in fixed-term contracts are, on average, lower than the returns to experience acquired in permanent jobs. However, this gap masks significant heterogeneity across individuals. The gap in returns widens along the skill distribution, where workers in the upper tail have the largest difference in returns. Moreover, among equally experienced workers, higher incidence of temporary employment in the past is associated with substantially lower wages. Ultimately, heterogeneous returns to experience translate into significant changes in the position of workers along the distribution of wage growth after 15 years in the labor market, bearing implications for life-cycle wage inequality. |
| Keywords: | human capital, labor market duality, earnings dynamics |
| JEL: | J30 J41 J63 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14596&r= |
| By: | Ivan Jericevich; Patrick Chang; Tim Gebbie |
| Abstract: | An agent-based model with interacting low frequency liquidity takers inter-mediated by high-frequency liquidity providers acting collectively as market makers can be used to provide realistic simulated price impact curves. This is possible when agent-based model interactions occur asynchronously via order matching using a matching engine in event time to replace sequential calendar time market clearing. Here the matching engine infrastructure has been modified to provide a continuous feed of order confirmations and updates as message streams in order to conform more closely to live trading environments. The resulting trade and quote message data from the simulations are then aggregated, calibrated and visualised. Various stylised facts are presented along with event visualisations and price impact curves. We argue that additional realism in modelling can be achieved with a small set of agent parameters and simple interaction rules once interactions are reactive, asynchronous and in event time. We argue that the reactive nature of market agents may be a fundamental property of financial markets and when accounted for can allow for parsimonious modelling without recourse to additional sources of noise. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07806&r= |
| By: | Ariel Pakes; Jack R. Porter; Mark Shepard; Sophie Calder-Wang |
| Abstract: | We provide a new method to analyze discrete choice models with state dependence and individual-by-product fixed effects and use it to analyze consumer choices in a policy-relevant environment (a subsidized health insurance exchange). Moment inequalities are used to infer state dependence from consumers’ switching choices in response to changes in product attributes. We infer much smaller switching costs on the health insurance exchange than is inferred from standard logit and/or random effects methods. A counterfactual policy evaluation illustrates that the policy implications of this difference can be substantive. |
| JEL: | C13 D12 I11 L60 M31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29025&r= |
| By: | Creedy, John |
| Abstract: | This paper is aimed at undergraduate and graduate economics students, and public sector economists, who are interested in inequality measurement. It examines the use of the Gini inequality measure to compare income distributions. The implicit distributional value judgements are made explicit, via the use of a particular form of Social Welfare Function. Emphasis is given to the interpretation of changes in inequality. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Gini Measure, Excess Share, Pivotal Income, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:9471&r= |
| By: | Alvaro Guinea; Alet Roux |
| Abstract: | A model is proposed that models Bitcoin prices by taking into account market attention. Assuming that market attention follows a mean-reverting Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and allowing it to influence Bitcoin returns (after some delay) leads to a tractable affine model with semi-closed formulae for European put and call prices. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is proposed for this model. The accuracy of its call and put prices outperforms a number of standard models when tested on real data. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12447&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Minh-Hoang |
| Abstract: | In this short essay, I present why building an “eco-surplus culture” among urban consumers and restaurant settings might help reduce wildlife trade. |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qrxku&r= |
| By: | Marla Ripoll |
| Abstract: | Parental intervivos transfers to adult children occur in families across the income distribution. This paper documents and analyzes novel patterns of parental intervivos transfers that are informative to dynamic models of transfers. We sue longitudinal data on parental transfers from the 1996-2014 Health and Retirement Study to characterize the age profile of transfers, including the probability and the transfer amount (unconditional and conditional). We then follow the 1967-71 cohort to describe the frequency of transfers, the distribution of years between transfers, and the total transfers received during different age brackets. Last, we use a dynamic model of parental altruism to analyze the mechanisms generating the distinct transfer types observed in the data. We find that in addition to the cross-sectional patterns documented in the literature, parental altruism is essential to explain the novel dynamic facts on intervivos transfers from longitudinal data. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:7144&r= |
| By: | Si Chen; Carl Heese |
| Abstract: | The literature on motivated reasoning argues that people skew their beliefs to feel moral when acting selfishly. We study information acquisition of decision-makers with a motive to form positive moral self-views and a motive to act selfishly. Theoretically and experimentally, we find that a motive to act selfishly makes individuals 'fish for good news': they are more likely to continue (stop) acquiring information, having received mostly information suggesting that acting selfishly is harmful (harmless) to others. We find that fishing for good news may improve social welfare. Finally, more intelligent individuals have a higher tendency to fish for good news. |
| Keywords: | Motivated Beliefs, Social Preferences, Information Preferences, Bayesian Persuasion, Belief Utility |
| JEL: | D90 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_223v3&r= |
| By: | Matthias Fleckenstein; Francis A. Longstaff |
| Abstract: | It is widely believed that Treasuries trade at premium prices because of their safety and money-like properties. In reality, this is only true on a relative basis when compared to other bonds, but is often not true on an absolute basis. Many Treasuries have repeatedly traded at substantial discounts to their intrinsic fair values for extended periods during the past 25 years. Since 2015, Treasuries have consistently been priced at an aggregate discount of $100 to $300 billion below their fair values. Treasuries often actually become cheaper following crises. These results provide new perspectives on safe-asset theories. |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29081&r= |
| By: | Alexander S. Kritikos; Alexander Schiersch; Caroline Stiel |
| Abstract: | In Germany, the productivity of professional services, a sector dominated by micro and small firms, declined by 40 percent between 1995 and 2014. This productivity decline also holds true for professional services in other European countries. Using a German firm-level dataset of 700,000 observations between 2003 and 2017, we analyze this largely uncovered phenomenon among professional services, the 4th largest sector in the EU15 business economy, which provide important intermediate services for the rest of the economy. We show that changes in the value chain explain about half of the decline and the increase in part-time employment is a further minor part of the decline. In contrast to expectations, the entry of micro and small firms, despite their lower productivity levels, is not responsible for the decline. We also cannot confirm the conjecture that weakening competition allows unproductive firms to remain in the market. |
| Keywords: | business services, labor productivity, productivity slowdown |
| JEL: | L84 O47 D24 L11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1960&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This report evaluates Honduras’s fiscal transparency practices in relation to the IMF Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). Honduras’s score is similar to those of other Latin American countries and emerging market economies that have undergone the evaluation. In relation to the fiscal transparency principles, Honduran practices are considered basic in 15 areas; good in seven areas; and advanced in six areas. Fiscal transparency practices in the area of fiscal forecasting and budgeting are the strongest, while the fiscal risk analysis and management practices are the weakest. Finally, Honduras’s current fiscal transparency practices fall short of the FTC principles in eight areas. |
| Keywords: | Universidad Nacional Autónoma; Desarrollo de Honduras; Dirección General de Inversión Pública; employee pension administrator; accounts payable; Banco Nacional de Desarrollo Agrícola; budget index; control de los Recursos Públicos; Unidad de Planeamiento y evaluation de la Gestión; Budget planning and preparation; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Fiscal risks; Financial statements; Central America |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/150&r= |
| By: | Mikkel Plagborg-Møller; Christian K. Wolf |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomists increasingly use external sources of exogenous variation for causal inference. However, unless such external instruments (proxies) capture the underlying shock without measurement error, existing methods are silent on the importance of that shock for macroeconomic fluctuations. We show that, in a general moving average model with external instruments, variance decompositions for the instrumented shock are interval-identified, with informative bounds. Various additional restrictions guarantee point identification of both variance and historical decompositions. Unlike SVAR analysis, our methods do not require invertibility. Applied to U.S. data, they give a tight upper bound on the importance of monetary shocks for inflation dynamics. |
| JEL: | C32 C36 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29044&r= |
| By: | Alex Garivaltis |
| Abstract: | To protect his teaching evaluations, an economics professor uses the following exam curve: if the class average falls below a known target, $m$, then all students will receive an equal number of free points so as to bring the mean up to $m$. If the average is above $m$ then there is no curve; curved grades above $100\%$ will never be truncated to $100\%$ in the gradebook. The $n$ students in the course all have Cobb-Douglas preferences over the grade-leisure plane; effort corresponds exactly to earned (uncurved) grades in a $1:1$ fashion. The elasticity of each student's utility with respect to his grade is his ability parameter, or relative preference for a high score. I find, classify, and give complete formulas for all the pure Nash equilibria of my own game, which my students have been playing for some eight semesters. The game is supermodular, featuring strategic complementarities, negative spillovers, and nonsmooth payoffs that generate non-convexities in the reaction correspondence. The $n+2$ types of equilibria are totally ordered with respect to effort and Pareto preference, and the lowest $n+1$ of these types are totally ordered in grade-leisure space. In addition to the no-curve ("try-hard") and curved interior equilibria, we have the "$k$-don't care" equilibria, whereby the $k$ lowest-ability students are no-shows. As the class size becomes infinite in the curved interior equilibrium, all students increase their leisure time by a fixed percentage, i.e., $14\%$, in response to the disincentive, which amplifies any pre-existing ability differences. All students' grades inflate by this same (endogenous) factor, say, $1.14$ times what they would have been under the correct standard. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03709&r= |
| By: | Joshua C. Tibbitts; Benjamin W. Cowan |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between opioid diverting policy and suicides among the veteran population. The opioid epidemic of the past two decades has had devastating health consequences among U.S. veterans and military personnel. In 2013, the Veterans Health Administration (VA) implemented the Opioid Safety Initiative (OSI) with the goal of discouraging prescription opioid dependence among VA patients. Between 2012 and 2017, prescription opioids dispensed by the VA fell 41% (VA, 2018). Because this involved the aggressive curtailing of opioid prescriptions for many VA patients, OSI may have had a detrimental effect on veterans’ mental health leading to suicide in extreme cases. In addition, because rural veterans have much higher rates of VA enrollment, more prescription opioid use and abuse, and lower rates of substance abuse and mental health treatment utilization, we expect any effect of OSI on veteran suicides to be concentrated in rural areas. We find that OSI raised the veteran suicide rate relative to the non-veteran (“civilian”) rate with rural veterans suffering the lion’s share of the increase. We estimate that OSI raised the rural veteran suicide rate by a little over one-third between 2013 and 2018. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29139&r= |
| By: | Ralph S. J. Koijen; Motohiro Yogo |
| Abstract: | Since the mid-1980s, the share of household net worth intermediated by US financial institutions has shifted from defined benefit plans to life insurers and defined contribution plans. Life insurers have primarily grown through variable annuities, which are mutual funds with longevity insurance, a potential tax advantage, and minimum return guarantees. The minimum return guarantees change the primary function of life insurers from traditional insurance to financial engineering. Variable annuity insurers are exposed to interest and equity risk mismatch and suffered especially low stock returns during the COVID-19 crisis. We consider regulatory changes, such as more detailed financial disclosure and standardized stress tests, to monitor potential risk mismatch and to ensure stability of the insurance sector. |
| JEL: | G22 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29030&r= |
| By: | Francesca Biagini; Andrea Mazzon; Katharina Oberpriller |
| Abstract: | In this paper we introduce a sublinear conditional operator with respect to a family of possibly nondominated probability measures in presence of multiple ordered default times. In this way we generalize the results of [5], where a reduced-form framework under model uncertainty for a single default time is developed. Moreover, we use this operator for the valuation of credit portfolio derivatives under model uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04047&r= |
| By: | Leyla D. Karakas; Nam Seok Kim; Devashish Mitra |
| Abstract: | Using six waves of the Swedish National Election Studies (SNES) survey data, we investigate the determinants of attitudes towards globalization barriers (trade and immigration) and how important these attitudes are in how people vote. In line with the existing results in the literature, we find that more educated and richer voters support freer trade and more immigration. We also find that conservative voters in Sweden are more likely to prefer freer trade but higher immigration barriers. Once various economic and demographic determinants of globalization barrier preferences along with voters’ ideologies on a liberal-conservative spectrum are controlled for in the analysis of voting behavior, trade barrier preferences lose their statistical significance while attitudes towards immigration barriers remain significant. This suggests that immigration attitudes affect voting behavior through channels involving identity-driven factors that are different from the channels through which more traditional electoral issues, such as trade barriers, work. Focusing on the anti-globalization Swedish Democrats, we confirm that voters with a greater preference for barriers to immigration were more likely to switch their votes to this party from the 2014 to the 2018 election. |
| Keywords: | globalization, trade, immigration, elections, voting, survey data, Sweden |
| JEL: | D72 F16 J61 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9236&r= |
| By: | Gebauer Stefan |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I show that the existence of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) has implications for the optimal regulation of the traditional banking sector. I develop a New Keynesian DSGE model for the euro area featuring a heterogeneous financial sector allowing for potential credit leakage towards unregulated NBFIs. Introducing NBFIs raises the importance of credit stabilization relative to other policy objectives in the welfare-based loss function of the regulator. The resulting optimal policy rule indicates that regulators adjust dynamic capital requirements more strongly in response to macroeconomic shocksdue to credit leakage. Furthermore, introducing non-bank finance not only alters the cyclicality of optimal regulation, but also has implications for the optimal steady-state level of capital requirements and loan-to-value ratios. Sector-specific characteristics such as bank market power and risk affect welfare gains from traditional and NBFI credit. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential Regulation, Monetary Policy, Optimal Policy, Non-Bank Finance,Shadow Banking, Financial Frictions. |
| JEL: | E44 E61 G18 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:817&r= |
| By: | Yuanhua Feng (Paderborn University); Bastian Schäfer (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the suitable choice of the weighting function at a boundary point in local polynomial regression and introduces two new boundary modi- cation methods by adapting known ideas for generating boundary kernels. Now continuous estimates at endpoints are achievable. Under given conditions the use of those quite different weighting functions at an interior point is equivalent. At a boundary point the use of dierent methods will lead to different estimates. It is also shown that the optimal weighting function at the endpoints is a natural extension of one of the optimal weighting functions in the interior. Furthermore, it is shown that the most well known boundary kernels proposed in the literature can be generated by local polynomial regression using corresponding weighting functions. The proposals are particularly useful, when one-side smoothing or de- tection of change points in nonparametric regression are considered. |
| Keywords: | Local polynomial regression, equivalent weighting methods, boundary modification, boundary kernels, finite sample property |
| JEL: | C14 C51 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:ciepap:144&r= |
| By: | Oeindrila Dube; Sendhil Mullainathan; Devin G. Pope |
| Abstract: | Many government services are provided at the state level such as unemployment insurance, Medicaid, and SNAP. Given the lack of competition, a natural worry is that customer support provided by states for these services is less than adequate. While there are many different measures of how a state can support beneficiaries, we focus on just one in this short and applied report: the ability to get a live representative on the phone to help with an application question. To do this, we take a “mystery shopping” approach and make 2,000 phone calls to state government offices. We find substantial heterogeneity in the availability of live phone representatives across states and types of service (UI, Medicaid, etc.). For example, live representatives in New Jersey and Georgia were reached less than 20% of the time while representatives in New Hampshire and Wisconsin were reached more than 80% of the time. We hope that this report provides a simple example for how academics, investigative reporters, and watch groups can help states be more accountable for their customer support systems. |
| JEL: | H0 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29055&r= |
| By: | Benjamin R. Handel; Kate Ho |
| Abstract: | In this paper we outline the tools that have been developed to model and analyze competition and regulation in health care markets, and describe particular papers that apply them to policy-relevant questions. We focus particularly on the I.O. models and empirical methods and analyses that researchers have formulated to address policy-relevant questions, although we also provide an overview of the institutional facts and findings that inform them. We divide the chapter into two broad sections: (i) papers considering competition and price-setting among insurers and providers and (ii) papers focused specifically on insurance and market design. The former set of papers is largely concerned with models of oligopolistic competition; it is often focused on the US commercial insurance market where prices are market-determined rather than being set administratively. The latter focuses on insurance market design with an emphasis on issues raised by asymmetric information, leading to adverse selection and moral hazard. In addition, we discuss the literature on consumer choice frictions in this market and the significant implications of those frictions for I.O. questions. |
| JEL: | I11 L13 L2 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29137&r= |
| By: | Kritikos, Alexander S. (DIW Berlin); Schiersch, Alexander (DIW Berlin); Stiel, Caroline (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | In Germany, the productivity of professional services, a sector dominated by micro and small firms, declined by 40 percent between 1995 and 2014. This productivity decline also holds true for professional services in other European countries. Using a German firm-level dataset of 700,000 observations between 2003 and 2017, we analyze this largely uncovered phenomenon among professional services, the 4th largest sector in the EU15 business economy, which provide important intermediate services for the rest of the economy. We show that changes in the value chain explain about half of the decline and the increase in part-time employment is a further minor part of the decline. In contrast to expectations, the entry of micro and small firms, despite their lower productivity levels, is not responsible for the decline. We also cannot confirm the conjecture that weakening competition allows unproductive firms to remain in the market. |
| Keywords: | business services, labor productivity, productivity slowdown |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14610&r= |
| By: | Tamara Bischof; Michael Gerfin; Tobias Mueller |
| Abstract: | We study the role of inattention as a key source of inertia in health plan choices. Our structural model shows that more than 90% of the elderly in Switzerland are inattentive and thus stick to their previous plan. We estimate sizeable switching costs even conditional on attention explaining part of the observed choice persistence. Inattention leads to overspending and generates considerable welfare losses for most consumers. A policy simulation shows that eliminating financially dominated plans from the choice set yields welfare gains for two thirds of individuals. |
| Keywords: | health plan choice, inertia, attention, switching costs, managed competition, elderly |
| JEL: | D12 G22 I13 D90 J14 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2111&r= |
| By: | Allen Hu; Song Ma |
| Abstract: | Persuasive communication functions not only through content but also delivery, e.g., facial expression, tone of voice, and diction. This paper examines the persuasiveness of delivery in start-up pitches. Using machine learning (ML) algorithms to process full pitch videos, we quantify persuasion in visual, vocal, and verbal dimensions. Positive (i.e., passionate, warm) pitches increase funding probability. Yet conditional on funding, high-positivity startups underperform. Women are more heavily judged on delivery when evaluating single-gender teams, but they are neglected when co-pitching with men in mixed-gender teams. Using an experiment, we show persuasion delivery works mainly through leading investors to form inaccurate beliefs. |
| JEL: | C55 D91 G24 G4 G41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29048&r= |
| By: | Sebastian Galiani; José Manuel Paz y Miño; Gustavo Torrens |
| Abstract: | We develop a simple (incumbent versus entrant) strategic deterrence model to study the economic and geopolitical interactions underlying international trade-related infrastructure projects such as the Panama Canal. We study the incentives for global geopolitical players to support allied satellite countries where these projects are or could potentially be built. We show that even if no effective competitor emerges, the appearance of a geopolitical challenger capable of credibly supporting the entrant has a pro-competition economic effect which benefits consumers all over the world. |
| JEL: | H0 L1 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29026&r= |
| By: | Paul R. Organ; Alex Ruda; Joel Slemrod; Alex Turk |
| Abstract: | Penalties for tax evasion are typically financial, but many jurisdictions also utilize collateral sanctions that deny access to some government-provided service. To learn about the effectiveness of such penalties, we examine a U.S. policy restricting passport access for taxpayers with substantial tax debt, known as “certification.” We find an immediate and strong positive effect on compliance actions when a passport request is denied. We then take advantage of randomization during the policy rollout to identify the direct compliance effect of certification, and find smaller but non-trivial effects whose heterogeneity is consistent with measures of taxpayers’ value of having a passport. |
| JEL: | H2 H24 H26 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29029&r= |
| By: | Merih Uctum (Brooklyn College [CUNY, New York] - CUNY - City University of New York [New York], The Graduate Center - CUNY Graduate Center - CUNY - City University of New York [New York]); Remzi Uctum (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UPN SEGMI - Université Paris Nanterre - UFR Sciences économiques, gestion, mathématiques, informatique - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre); Chu-Ping C Vijverberg (CSI CUNY - College of Staten Island [CUNY] - CUNY - City University of New York [New York], The Graduate Center - CUNY Graduate Center - CUNY - City University of New York [New York]) |
| Abstract: | In light of several economic and financial crises and institutional changes experienced by the European countries, we examine whether these economies achieved synchronization of their business cycles and fostered synchronization of their growth rates. Controlling for reverse causality, we conduct multiple endogenous break tests and find (i) several endogenous break dates that correspond to idiosyncratic shocks affecting individual countries, major shocks in international arena but not the adoption of the euro, suggesting that the convergence process has been nonlinear for a number of countries and that studies imposing break dates exogenously, such as the launch of euro, may lead to biased conclusions; (ii) while output growth was increasingly synchronized for some countries, integration occurred in an asymmetric way and it didn't change or didn't occur for others despite being in the same common currency area (iii) convergence has been prevalent among the non-Eurozone economies in our sample. |
| Keywords: | Convergence,growth synchronization,euro,crises,structural breaks |
| Date: | 2019–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319011&r= |
| By: | Jordan W. Jones; Charles J. Courtemanche; Augustine Denteh; James Marton; Rusty Tchernis |
| Abstract: | Senior participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has traditionally been lower than other groups among those eligible, with historical estimates below 50 percent. We examine the impacts of state SNAP policies on program participation among low-income senior (age 60 and older) and non-senior households using data from the 2001-2014 December Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement. Our results suggest that policies designed to expand SNAP eligibility modestly increased participation among seniors but led to larger increases among non-seniors. In contrast, we find little evidence of effects of policies related to transaction costs, stigma, or outreach on either group. |
| JEL: | I32 I38 J14 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29037&r= |
| By: | Killian Foubert; Ilse Ruyssen (-) |
| Abstract: | Terrorism is a global phenomenon with devastating consequences for the individuals involved and society in general. The adverse impacts of terrorist attacks may act as a driver for migration, both within and across borders. Yet, empirical evidence on the causal impact of terrorism on migration is scarce. The contribution of our paper is twofold. First, we construct various indicators of terrorist activity at a fine level of spatial and temporal granularity, which allow to fairly accurately identify individuals' exposure to terrorist threat. Second, we use these geo- localized indicators to empirically analyse the role played by terrorist attacks in shaping intentions to migrate either internally or internationally. Specifically, we use a multilevel approach combining these indicators with individual survey data on migration intentions in and from 133 countries, spanning the period 2007-2015. Our results indicate that terrorist attacks spur both internal and international migration intentions, though the effect is stronger for the latter. International migration intentions are, however, not necessarily responsive to the frequency of terrorist attacks, but rather to the intensity of these attacks, measured as the number of fatalities and wounded. In addition, the impact on migration intentions is heterogeneous, varying with both individual and country characteristics |
| Keywords: | Migration intentions, Terrorism, International migration |
| JEL: | F22 O15 D74 C23 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:21/1021&r= |