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on Islamic Finance |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The authorities responded quickly and decisively to the COVID-19 crisis and the economy is recovering. COVID-19 cases are well below the 2020 peak and vaccination is progressing. The exit from the remaining COVID-related policy support needs to be carefully managed and the Vision 2030 reform agenda continued. |
| Keywords: | Policy support measure; GDP estimate; policy support; totaling SDR; financial asset; employment support program; Oil; COVID-19; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Income; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific |
| Date: | 2021–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/149&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) reviews the Sudan Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for the period 2021–2023. The PRSP was prepared by the Government of Sudan, drawing on lessons learned from the implementation of the 2012 interim poverty reduction strategy paper (I-PRSP).1 The PRSP was approved by the Council of Ministers on May 11, 2021. The government submitted the PRSP to IDA and the IMF on May 12, 2021 to fulfill the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative’s poverty reduction strategy requirement. |
| Keywords: | member country's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper; copyright page; objective of the JSAN; advisory note; government ministry; Poverty reduction strategy; Poverty reduction; Poverty reduction and development; Africa; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/145&r= |
| By: | Davillas, A; Burlinson, A.; Liu, H-H. |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study to explore the association between fuel poverty and a set of well-being outcomes: lifesatisfaction, self-reported health measures and more objectively measured biomarker data. Over and above the conventional income–fuel cost indicators, we also use more proximal heating deprivation indicators. We create and draw upon a set of composite indicators that concomitantly capture (the lack of) affordability and thermal comfort. Depending on which fuel deprivation indicator is used, we find heterogeneous associations between fuel poverty and our well-being outcomes. Employing combined fuel deprivation indicators, which takes into account the income–fuel cost balance and more proximal perceptions of heating adequacy, reveals the presence of more pronounced associations with life satisfaction and fibrinogen, one of our biological health measures. The presence of these strong associations would have been less pronounced or masked when using separately each of the components of our composite fuel deprivation indicators as well as in the case of self-reported generic measures of physical health. Lifestyle and chronic health conditions plays a limited role in attenuating our results, while material deprivation partially, but not fully, attenuates our associations between fuel deprivation and well-being. These results remain robust when bounding analysis is employed to test the potential confounding role of unobservables. Our analysis suggests that composite fuel deprivation indicators may be useful energy policy instruments for uncovering the underlining mechanism via which fuel poverty may get “under the skin†. |
| Keywords: | fuel poverty; biomarkers; health; well-being; |
| JEL: | I12 I31 I32 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:21/13&r= |
| By: | Askandarou Diallo,; Jacolin Luc,; Isabelle Rabaud. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between FDI and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), using a sample of 40 countries over 1980-2017. To disentangle short term from long-term dynamics, our empirical analysis is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Full Effects (DFE) models. We find that FDI has little effect on private investment in the short run but significant crowding-in effects in the long-run: a one percentage point increase of the share of FDI in GDP leads to a 0.29% rise in private investment, in the long run. Our results also show that FDI interacts with public domestic investment to boost these positive effects. Finally, we show that the impact of FDI on domestic private investment is stronger in non-natural resource exporting diversified countries as opposed to non-diversified commodity exporters. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development, Domestic Investment, FDI, Crowding-in/Crowding-out Effects. |
| JEL: | G11 O11 O16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:816&r= |
| By: | Masahiko Tsutsumi (Institute of Economic Research Center for Intergenerational Studies, Hitotsubashi University); Masahito Ambashi (Waseda University, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Asuna Okubo (Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting LLC) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at evaluating the economic impacts of the various Indonesian free trade agreement (FTA) strategies in enhancing export-led growth. The potential impact of abolishing tariffs on three key sectors or commodities – (i) oil seeds, vegetable oils, and fats (VegOil); (ii) fishery and processed foods (FisheryPFD); and (iii) textile and apparel products (TextWapp) – with three trading partners – the European Union (EU28), members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and India – is calculated using a computable general equilibrium model. To explore the long-term influence, we also take into account capital deepening and technological spillovers induced by trade. We derive the following implications from the exercise. First, amongst the three key sectors or commodities, TextWapp generates the largest spillover effects in the economy, as it uses more intermediary inputs. By contrast, although Indonesia has a comparative advantage in VegOil, that sector does not create large spillover effects in the economy. Second, amongst the three trading partners, it would be best to liberalise trade barriers further with the EU28 and India since India would bring gains to Indonesia by correcting a large price distortion in VegOil, while the EU28 would do so through TextWapp as well as VegOil. Since the initial trade volume of the GCC with Indonesia is not large, we might underestimate gains from trade with that region. Finally, the economic merits of abolishing tariffs are generated primarily through improvement of resource allocation in the affected countries. Improved resource allocation generates additional income, which increases imports. Without these income effects, Indonesia can only increase its exports via substitution effects. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, tariff, trade policy, computable general equilibrium model |
| JEL: | F13 F17 F51 O24 |
| Date: | 2021–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2019-16&r= |
| By: | Diane Coyle (The Productivity Institute, Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge); Abi Adams-Prassl (University of Oxford); Jeremias Adams-Prassl (University of Oxford) |
| Keywords: | productivity, gig economy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:ppaper:001&r= |
| By: | Saule Baurzhan (Eastern Mediteranean University); Glenn Jenkins (Queen's University); Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams (Nanchang University) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the economic benefits of 57 World Bank Group-sponsored hydropower dam plant investments. Hydropower dams are among the main sources for producing electricity and the largest renewable source for power generation throughout the world. Hydropower dams are often a lower-cost option for power generation in Clean Energy Transition for addressing global climate change. Despite its conspicuous aspects, constructing hydropower dams has been controversial. Considering the World Bank’s long history as the largest hydropower development financier, this study investigates its performance in supporting hydropower dams. The outcomes of this study apply to the wider hydropower development community. Of the projects in this study, 70% experienced a cost overrun, and more than 80% of projects experienced time overruns, incurring potential additional costs as a result. Despite the high cost and time overruns, this hydropower portfolio of dams produced a present value of net economic benefits by 2016 of over half a trillion USD. Based on our findings, the evaluated hydropower portfolio helped avoid over a billion tonnes of CO2 for an estimated global environmental benefit valued at nearly USD 350 billion. The projects’ additional environmental benefits raise the real rate of return from 15.4% to 17.3%. The implication for hydropower developers is that the projects’ assessment should consider cost and time overrun and factor them into the project-planning contingency scenarios. There is a considerable benefit for developing countries to exploit their hydropower resources if they can be developed according to industry practices and international standards. The case for developing hydropower may be stronger when considering its climate benefits. The net economic benefits of hydropower can be even higher if there is a greater effort to manage cost and time overruns. |
| Keywords: | investment appraisal, carbon emissions, cost overrun, hydropower, dams, World Bank |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1463&r= |
| By: | Filomena, Mattia (Marche Polytechnic University); Picchio, Matteo (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a meta-analysis on the effects of retirement on health. We select academic papers published between 2000 and 2021 studying the impact of retirement on physical and mental health, self-assessed general health, healthcare utilization and mortality. Among 275 observations from 85 articles, 28% (13%) find positive (negative) effects of retirement on health outcomes. Almost 60% of the observations do not provide statistically significant findings. Using meta-regression analysis, we checked for the presence of publication bias after distinguishing among different journal subject areas and, once correcting for it, we find that the average effect of retirement on health outcomes is small and barely significant. We apply model averaging techniques to explore possible sources of heterogeneity and our results suggest that the different estimated effects can be explained by the differences in both health measurements and retirement schemes. |
| Keywords: | retirement, health, meta-analysis, meta-regression, publication bias |
| JEL: | I10 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14602&r= |
| By: | Parsons, Sam (University College London); Bryson, Alex (University College London); Sullivan, Alice (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Using data from two British birth cohorts born in 1958 and 1970 we investigate the impact of teenage conduct problems on subsequent employment prospects through to age 42. We find teenagers with conduct problems went on to spend fewer months both in paid employment, and in employment, education and training (EET) between age 17 and 42 than comparable teenagers who did not experience conduct problems. Employment and EET disadvantages were greatest among those with severe behavioural problems. The 'gap' in time spent in employment or EET by conduct problem status was similar for men and women across cohorts, with only a small part of the gap being attenuated by differences in social background, individual characteristics and educational attainment in public examination at age 16. We discuss the implications of our findings. |
| Keywords: | education, training, disadvantage, educational attainment, labour market, employment, behavioural problems, Rutter |
| JEL: | I12 J20 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14616&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Singapore entered the COVID-19 pandemic with sizable policy space and robust economic policy frameworks, yet facing longer-term challenges. The economy has been severely impacted by the pandemic, but a bold, comprehensive, and coordinated policy package has helped cushion the economic fallout. Following a record contraction in the first half of 2020, activity has rebounded, and growth is projected to strengthen to 6 percent in 2021, underpinned by a recovery in domestic demand and a positive contribution from net exports. The uncertainty surrounding the outlook is larger than usual. |
| Keywords: | currency speculation; Singapore authorities; bond issuance; U.S. dollar; headline inflation; green finance market; COVID-19; Inflation; Financial soundness indicators; International investment position; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/156&r= |
| By: | BIANCHI, ANA MARIA AFONSO FERREIRA |
| Abstract: | Book review of Michele Alacevich´s recently published book, "Albert O. Hirschman: An intellectual biography", CUP, 2021. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:egnsp&r= |
| By: | Masahito Ambashi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | ASEAN member states (AMS) need to greatly enhance their ‘innovation capability’ to achieve technology-driven sustainable development, and there still remains much room to do so. AMS governments should function as active agents in controlling and coordinating systematic innovation policies, including R&D incentives, human resources development, and industrial policies. In this sense, government initiatives matter for innovation in ASEAN where industrialisation has just started based on technology and innovation. Since the problem most AMS face is the absence or functional failure of the government organisation in terms of policymaking processes, it is important to give responsibility for innovation policy to preferably a single body in a government organisation. This government body should hold unified authority with strong leadership under government control to lead and coordinate innovation policies developed across various departments from a holistic viewpoint. Furthermore, AMS may well be able to set goals of R&D intensity through government initiatives, which are expected to motivate AMS governments to secure sufficient budgets for steadily implementing necessary policies. |
| Date: | 2019–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2019-03&r= |
| By: | Facundo Alvaredo (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anthony B Atkinson (NUFFIELD COLLEGE - Nuffield College - University of Oxford [Oxford]); Thomas Blanchet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lucas Chancel (IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Luis Estevez Bauluz (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Matthew Fisher-Post (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ignacio Flores (WIL - World Inequality Lab); Bertrand Garbinti (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Clara Martínez-Toledano (WIL - World Inequality Lab); Marc Morgan (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Neef Theresa; Thomas Piketty (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anne-Sophie Robilliard (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme); Emmanuel Saez (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Gabriel Zucman (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Li Yang |
| Date: | 2021–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03307584&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Although Timor-Leste has made considerable progress in many areas since its independence in 2002, it faces significant medium-term challenges. The nation has pressing development needs, young institutions, and is highly dependent on oil. Oil revenues from active fields, which have been the main source of funding for government spending, are drying up. The non-oil private sector economy remains underdeveloped and lack of good jobs and high youth unemployment are serious concerns. |
| Keywords: | Timorese authorities; oil GDP; WTI crude; government coalition; private sector development; Oil; Debt sustainability analysis; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/152&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Germany’s economy contracted by just under 5 percent in 2020, outperforming most European peers. But renewed waves of infections and associated lockdowns caused economic activity to plunge again in the first quarter of this year. While the pace of mass vaccination has picked up and the economy has started to reopen, the recovery path is beset with risks, particularly with respect to the progress of the pandemic and supply shortages in major industries. The authorities have maintained appropriately accommodative fiscal and financial policies, and most measures supporting households and firms have been extended through 2021. |
| Keywords: | money market rate; financial asset; investment initiative; government action; article IV consultation discussion; transparency policy; headline inflation; COVID-19; Income; Commercial banks; Cooperative banks; Global; Europe |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/153&r= |
| By: | Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The zero-interest green loan (ZIGL) programme allows French homeowners to finance home energy retrofits at zero interest rate. Launched in 2009 in the wake of the Grenelle de l'environnement, the programme has strongly underperformed expectations. As the Citizen Convention for Climate now recommends extending the programme, we examine the reasons for the gap between predicted and realized ZIGLs. We find it to be best explained by a lack of profitability for banks. As a consequence, banks exploit consumers' lack of information about the programme to sell them more conventional financial products. In contrast, the role played by other frequently-cited causes, such as high transaction costs and a low interest rate environment, seems to be modest. We conclude that the efficiency of the programme could be improved by assigning loan issuance to a public bank. |
| Abstract: | L'éco-prêt à taux zéro (EPTZ) permet aux propriétaires de logements de financer des travaux de rénovation énergétique sans payer d'intérêts. Lancée en 2009, cette politique phare du Grenelle de l'environnement n'a pas rencontré le succès escompté. Aujourd'hui, la Convention citoyenne pour le climat (2020) propose de généraliser l'EPTZ. Pour juger de l'opportunité d'une telle mesure, nous nous interrogeons sur les causes possibles de l'écart entre le nombre d'EPTZ initialement prédit et effectivement réalisé. Nous identifions comme cause principale un manque d'attractivité du dispositif pour les banques. Celles-ci mettent en oeuvre des stratégies d'évitement qui prospèrent sur une forme de désintérêt des ménages. D'autres causes fréquemment avancées, comme les coûts administratifs ou l'environnement de taux d'intérêt faibles, semblent jouer un rôle moins important. Nous concluons que l'efficacité du dispositif pourrait être améliorée en transférant l'octroi des prêts à une banque publique. |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03278386&r= |
| By: | Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago); Loughlin, Colleen P. (Compass Lexecon) |
| Abstract: | The recent Supreme Court decision NCAA vs Alston (June 2021) has heightened interest in the benefits and costs of participation in sports for student athletes. Anecdotes about the exploitation of student athletes were cited in the opinion. This paper uses panel data for two different cohorts that follow students from high school through college and into their post-school pursuits to examine the generality of these anecdotes. On average, student athletes' benefit- often substantially so—in terms of graduation, post-collegiate employment, and earnings. Benefits in terms of social mobility for disadvantaged and minority students are substantial, contrary to the anecdotes in play in the media and in the courts. |
| Keywords: | sport economics, social mobility, returns to education |
| JEL: | Z2 I32 I26 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14584&r= |
| By: | Kurmann, André (Drexel University); Lalé, Etienne (Université du Québec à Montréal); Ta, Lien (Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an explosion of research using real-time establishment-level data. One key challenge when working with this data is how to take into account the effects of business openings and closings. In this paper, we address this challenge by matching small business establishment records from Homebase with information on business activity from Google, Facebook,and Safegraph to distinguish business closings and openings from other sample exits and entry. Weshow that this distinction is critical to benchmark the data to pre-pandemic administrative records and estimate the effects of the pandemic on small business activity. We find four key results: (1)employment of small businesses in four of the hardest hit service sectors contracted more severely in the beginning of the pandemic than employment of larger businesses, but small businesses also rebounded more strongly and have on average recovered a higher share of job losses than larger businesses; (2)closings account for 70% of the initial decline in small business employment, but two thirds of closed businesses have reopened and the annual rate of closings is just slightly higher than prior to the pandemic; (3) new openings of small businesses constitute an important driver of the recovery but the annual rate of new openings is only about half the rate one year earlier (4) small business employment was affected less negatively in counties with early access to loans from the Paycheck Protection Program(PPP) and in counties where Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) was more generous relative to pre-pandemic earnings of likely recipients, with business closings accounting for a large part of these two effects. The results dispel the popular notion that small businesses continue to suffer more from the pandemic than larger businesses. At the same time, our analysis suggests that PPP and FPUC helped to significantly mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic for small businesses by, respectively, alleviating financial constraints and stimulating demand for local services. |
| Keywords: | Small business activity; Sample turnover versus business openings/closings; Matchingrecords; COVID-19; Paycheck Protection Program; Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation |
| JEL: | E01 E24 E32 E60 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2021_015&r= |
| By: | Asmaa Chouhaibi (Université Mohammed V) |
| Abstract: | The occurrence of the pandemic (Covid 19), caused a negative shock on world economic growth which exceeds in intensity that of the economic crisis of 2008, according to the International Monetary Fund in 2020. In Africa, the rapid spread of Covid 19 has had negative effects on all spheres of sustainable development. In this context, the Moroccan economy and the ECOWAS zone have not been excluded from the pandemic either at the health level or at the level of sustainable development. This work analyzes the impact of Covid 19 on Foreign Direct Investments between Morocco and ECOWAS, given that Morocco has now become the 2nd investor in Africa, after South Africa, and the first in Africa from West. This document will present, on the one hand, a theoretical analysis, of which we will describe the pandemic situation in West Africa with quantified data, then the presentation of ECOWAS, and, on the other hand, an empirical analysis which will consist of studying first the inventory of FDI between Morocco and ECOWAS, for a period before and during the pandemic, then will present an econometric study in order to measure the impact of the pandemic on FDI between the two partners in the coming years. |
| Abstract: | La survenance de la pandémie (Covid 19) a provoqué un choc négatif sur la croissance économique mondiale qui dépasse en intensité celle de la crise économique de 2008, selon le Fonds Monétaire International en 2020. En Afrique, la propagation rapide de la Covid 19 a eu des effets négatifs sur toutes les sphères du développement durable. Dans ce cadre, l'économie marocaine et la zone de la CEDEAO n'ont pas été exclues de la pandémie que soit au niveau sanitaire, ou bien au niveau du développement durable. Le présent travail, analyse l'impact de la Covid 19 sur les Investissements Directs Etrangers entre le Maroc et la CEDEAO, vu que le Maroc est devenu aujourd'hui le 2e investisseur en Afrique, après l'Afrique Sud, et le premier en Afrique de l'Ouest. Ce document présentera d'une part une analyse théorique, dont on va décrire la situation pandémique en Afrique de l'Ouest avec des données chiffrées, ensuite la présentation de la CEDEAO, et d'autre part une analyse empirique qui consistera à étudier d'abord l'état des lieux des IDE entre le Maroc et la CEDEAO, et ce pour une période avant et au cours de la pandémie, ensuite présentera une étude économétrique en vue de mesurer l'impact de la pandémie sur les IDE entre les deux partenaires pour les années à venir. |
| Keywords: | Morocco,ECOWAS,West Africa,Pandemic,Covid-19,Investment,Investissements,Maroc,CEDEAO,Afrique,Afrique de l'Ouest,Covid 19,Pandémie |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319154&r= |
| By: | Bart van Ark (Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester); Klaas de Vries (The Conference Board); Abdul Erumban (University of Groningen) |
| Keywords: | productivity, pandemic, labour reallocation, digital transformation, work-from-home |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:007&r= |
| By: | Brilyawan, Kristian |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure development in Indonesia has been going on for a long time and at a fairly large cost. The contribution of infrastructure development is quite significant in increasing economic growth, but there are still problems faced by our country. This study aims to determine the influence and contribution of economic and social infrastructure to economic growth in Indonesia, which is represented by Gross Regional Domestic Product per capita. Panel data regression analysis is used to see the magnitude of the influence of infrastructure on economic growth in Indonesia. The infrastructure studied includes: length of roads, distributed electricity, clean water that is distributed, health described by Life Expectancy (AHH), and education described by the Average Length of School (RLS). The analysis was carried out using panel data with a random effect model in 34 provinces in Indonesia and over a period of 5 years (2015-2019). The results obtained are that roads and education have a significant effect on economic growth. Electricity, clean water, and health do not have a significant effect.economic infrastructure, social infrastructure, economic growth |
| Date: | 2021–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:tvgc6&r= |
| By: | Eckersley, Peter; Kern, Kristine; Haupt, Wolfgang; Müller, Hannah |
| Abstract: | This report is a product of the ExTrass project, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to help medium-sized and large cities in Germany to prepare for the increased frequency of extreme weather events, particularly heavy rainfall and heatwaves. The project examines the drivers and barriers for urban climate adaptation and mitigation, with a particular focus on three case study cities: Potsdam, Remscheid and Würzburg. Amongst other things, the project team evaluates the efficacy of urban greening initiatives, works towards climate-sensitive urban planning, contributes data on city climate, educates the population on risks and improves contingency plans. It also provides a platform for knowledge exchange to help cities learn from each other. Cities are responsible for about 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions and are also particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Extreme weather events can result in significant damage to property and pose major risks to urban populations. Yet, municipalities are not able to manage these risks alone: in order to understand how they are seeking to combat change we need to examine the contexts within which they operate and their relationships with other key actors. This report focuses on the multi-level nature of the German state, with a particular focus on the role of the Bundesländer regional governments. It shows how the climate and energy priorities of individual states are largely shaped by their political and economic interests, and result in them adopting different approaches to working with municipalities. It shows that although Germany relies overwhelmingly on interdependent, vertical relationships between tiers of government to coordinate and implement climate policy, states that do not have a historical reliance on fossil fuel resources, and/or in which the Green Party form part of the governing coalition, have provided more resources and support to municipal governments to act on the issue. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irsdia:32021&r= |
| By: | Adrien Fabre (ETHZ ZURICH CHE - Partenaires IRSTEA - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture); Bénédicte Apouey (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thomas Douenne (UvA - University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam]); Jean-Michel Fourniau (AME-DEST - Dynamiques Economiques et Sociales des Transports - Université Gustave Eiffel); Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-François Laslier (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Solène Tournus (MSHPN - Maison des sciences de l'Homme Paris Nord - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | We conduct surveys on both participants in the French Citizens Convention for Climate (CCC) and the general public. By comparing the answers of the randomly drawn citizens with those of the general population on identical questions, we assess the representativity of the CCC, study the evolution of the citizens' opinions, and document the perceptions of the CCC. The CCC appeared broadly representative of the French population. Although, the CCC's Citizens seemed to have been somewhat more favorable to climate policies than the general population at the start, a majority support was found for all proposed measures but one. Despite our findings that the CCC correctly represented the population, we document widespread ignorance and mistrust towards the CCC, including a largely shared belief that it was not representative. |
| Keywords: | Convention Citoyenne pour le Climat,Climate change,Sortition,Citizens Assembly |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:halshs-03265053&r= |
| By: | Anne Goujon-Belghit (Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux, IRGO - Institut de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Bordeaux); Jocelyn Husser (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Aix-en-Provence - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | This article questions the place of teacher-researchers in today's society, which is undergoing the fruits of the reforms initiated by the Lisbon Strategy in 2000. Based on an analysis of the literature in Management Sciences, this article shows that the economic, geopolitical and financial environment profoundly modifies the role of teacher-researchers in French society. A model underlines the two facets of the teacher-researcher's job, namely teaching and research. It also shows the subtle balance between these two roles and the ability to adapt to different audiences and outcomes. Finally,the performance indicators used by the State aim to show the inefficiency of teacher-researchers because they are based on inappropriate criteria. This article offers some ideas for integrating more relevant indicators that evaluate the performance of teacher-researchers on a societal scale. |
| Abstract: | Cet article questionne la place des enseignants-chercheurs qui, dans la société d'aujourd'hui, subissent les effets des réformes initiées par la stratégie de Lisbonne sur l'éducation (Conseil européen de Lisbonne en 2000). À partir de l'analyse de la littérature en Sciences de Gestion, cet article montre que l'environnement économique, géopolitique et financier modifie profondément le rôle des enseignants-chercheurs dans la société française. Une modélisation souligne les deux facettes du métier d'enseignant-chercheur que sont l'enseignement et la recherche. Elle montre également le subtil équilibre entre ces deux rôles et la capacité d'adaptation nécessaire pour entrer en relation avec des publics et des résultats différents. Finalement les indicateurs de performance retenus par l'État ambitionnent de montrer l'inefficacité des enseignants-chercheurs car ils s'appuient sur des critères inappropriés. Cet article offre des pistes de réflexion pour intégrer des indicateurs plus pertinents qui évaluent la performance des enseignants-chercheurs à l'échelle sociétale. |
| Keywords: | Teacher-researcher,societal responsibility,university reforms,performance,Enseignant-chercheur,responsabilité sociétale,réformes universitaires,performance. |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277500&r= |
| By: | Aaltonen, Aleksi Ville; Alaimo, Cristina; Kallinikos, Jannis |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the process by which data are generated, managed, and assembled into tradable objects we call data commodities. We link the making of such objects to the open and editable nature of digital data and to the emerging big data industry in which they are diffused items of exchange, repurposing, and aggregation. We empirically investigate the making of data commodities in the context of an innovative telecommunications operator, analyzing its efforts to produce advertising audiences by repurposing data from the network infrastructure. The analysis unpacks the processes by which data are repurposed and aggregated into novel data-based objects that acquire organizational and industry relevance through carefully maintained metrics and practices of data management and interpretation. Building from our findings, we develop a process theory that explains the transformations data undergo on their way to becoming commodities and shows how these transformations are related to organizational practices and to the editable, portable, and recontextualizable attributes of data. The theory complements the standard picture of data encountered in data science and analytics and renews and extends the promise of a constructivist IS research into the age of datafication. The results provide practitioners, regulators included, vital insights concerning data management practices that produce commodities from data. |
| Keywords: | advertising audience; analytics; big data; case study; data commodities; data-based objects; social practices; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110296&r= |
| By: | Asmae Mrhar (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Aziz Bensbahou (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl) |
| Abstract: | Morocco has finally joined the trajectory of participatory finance. However, despite the efforts made to promote this nascent industry, this is still very insufficient to encourage it. In addition, the tax variable is a determining factor in the financing decision because it weighs heavily on the cost of participatory banking products. In the absence of tax regulations that take into account the nature of these products and put in place an incentive and encouraging tax framework that guarantees better tax neutrality, this industry risks being less competitive compared to their conventional counterparts. The scarcity of studies dealing with this tax evolution, prompted us to study and analyze this question, while basing ourselves on the evolution of the tax framework of these products in Morocco and also on the various tax novelties brought by the succession of the laws of finances. |
| Abstract: | Le Maroc s'est enfin inscrit dans la trajectoire de la finance participative. Cependant, malgré les efforts déployés pour promouvoir cette industrie naissante, cela reste très insuffisant pour l'encourager. Par ailleurs, la variable fiscale constitue une déterminante de la décision de financement du fait qu'elle pèse lourdement sur le coût des produits bancaires participatifs. Dans l'absence d'une réglementation fiscale prenant en considération la nature de ces produits et mettant en place un cadre fiscal incitatif et encourageant et garantissant une meilleure neutralité fiscale, cette industrie risque d'être moins compétitive en comparaison avec leurs homologues conventionnels. La rareté des études traitant cette évolution fiscale nous a poussés à étudier et à analyser cette question, tout en nous basant sur l'évolution du cadre fiscal de ces produits au Maroc et aussi sur les différentes nouveautés fiscales apportées par la succession des lois de finances. |
| Keywords: | Tax Neutrality,Participatory Finance,Financing Decision,Tax Variable,Neutralité Fiscal,Décision de Financement,Variable Fiscale,Finance Participative |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03318575&r= |
| By: | Alois Pichler; Dana Uhlig |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic still causes severe impacts on society and the economy. This paper studies excess mortality during the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 in Germany empirically with a special focus on the life insurer's perspective. Our conclusions are based on official counts of German governmental offices on the living and deaths of the entire population. Conclusions, relevant for actuaries and specific insurance business lines, including portfolios of pension, life, and health insurance contracts, are provided. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12899&r= |
| By: | Chiwuzulum Odozi, John (University of Ibadan, Nigeria); Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth (Agnes Scott College) |
| Abstract: | Nigeria has experienced bouts of violent conflict in different regions since its independence leading to significant loss of life. In this paper, we explore the average effect of exposure to violent conflict generally on labor supply in agriculture. Using a nationally representative panel dataset for Nigeria from 2010-2015, in combination with armed conflict data, we estimate the average effect of exposure to violent conflict on a household's farm labor supply. Our findings suggest that on average, exposure to violent conflict significantly reduces total family labor supply hours in agriculture. We also find that the decline in family labor supply is driven by a significant decline in the household head's total number of hours on the farm. |
| Keywords: | ethno-religious conflict, Boko Haram, farm households, farmer-herdsmen conflict, labor supply, Nigeria, Niger-delta conflict, violent conflict |
| JEL: | Q10 Q12 O1 D74 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14579&r= |
| By: | Harleen Kaur (Independent Researcher); Ajay Shah (xKDR Forum and Jindal Global University); Siddhartha Srivastava (King's College, London) |
| Abstract: | Quality problems in drug purchasing by Indian state agencies lie at the intersection of the field of drug quality in India and the field of government contracting in India. Improvements in the procedures used by state agencies when buying drugs can improve the working of public health care programs, and potentially also influence drug quality in the private market. The first step towards policy analysis and reform lies in careful description of how drug purchase works at present. In this paper, we describe how some elements of the Indian state buy drugs. |
| JEL: | I18 H51 H57 H83 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anf:wpaper:5&r= |
| By: | Haugen, Ronald |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2021–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:313163&r= |
| By: | James J. Heckman; Colleen P. Loughlin |
| Abstract: | The recent Supreme Court decision NCAA vs Alston (June 2021) has heightened interest in the benefits and costs of participation in sports for student athletes. Anecdotes about the exploitation of student athletes were cited in the opinion. This paper uses panel data for two different cohorts that follow students from high school through college and into their post-school pursuits to examine the generality of these anecdotes. On average, student athletes’ benefit- often substantially so—in terms of graduation, post-collegiate employment, and earnings. Benefits in terms of social mobility for disadvantaged and minority students are substantial, contrary to the anecdotes in play in the media and in the courts. |
| JEL: | I26 I32 Z2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29072&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Benchimol (Bank of Israel); Sophia Kazinnik (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Yossi Saadon (Bank of Israel) |
| Abstract: | Have the content, sentiment, and timing of the Federal Reserve (Fed) communications changed across communication types during the COVID-19 pandemic? Did similar changes occur during the global financial and dot-com crises? We compile dictionaries specific to COVID-19 and unconventional monetary policy (UMP) and utilize sentiment analysis and topic modeling to study the Fedâs communications and answer the above questions. We show that the Fedâs communications regarding the COVID-19 pandemic concern matters of financial volatility, contextual uncertainty, and financial stability, and that they emphasize health, social welfare, and UMP. We also show that the Fedâs communication policy changes drastically during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the GFC and dot-com crisis in terms of content, sentiment, and timing. Specifically, we find that during the past two decades, a decrease in the financial stability sentiment conveyed by the Fedâs interest rate announcements and minutes precedes a decrease in the Fedâs interest rate. |
| Keywords: | Central bank communication, Unconventional monetary policy, Financial stability, Text mining, COVID |
| JEL: | C55 E44 E58 E63 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boi:wpaper:2021.15&r= |
| By: | Jang-Ting Guo (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Yan Zhang (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law) |
| Abstract: | In the context of a two-period non-monetary overlapping generations model with Cobb-Douglas preference and technological specifications, this paper explores the quantitative interrelations between equilibrium (in)determinacy versus (i) a progressive tax schedule on wage income and (ii) a balanced-budget rule with endogenous labor taxation. In sharp contrast to previous studies on a one-sector representative-agent macroeconomy, we find that both fiscal formulations are stabilizing instruments against cyclical fluctuations driven by agents' self-fulfilling beliefs. The key policy implication of our no-indeterminacy result is that depending on what is the underlying analytical environment, countercyclical income taxation may stabilize or destabilize the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Tax Policy; Equilibrium Indeterminacy; Overlapping Generations Model. |
| JEL: | E32 E62 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202112&r= |
| By: | Melise Jaud; Madina Kukenova; Martin Strieborny |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the transmission process from finance to the real economy in the context of product-level export survival. We find that conditional on the specific financial needs of exported products, banks and stock markets play distinctive roles in helping exporters survive in foreign markets. Stock markets rather than banks help exporters who lack easily collateralizable tangible assets. Active rather than large stock markets facilitate exports of products requiring high levels of working capital. And the trade credit can act as a substitute only for bank financing and only in the presence of well-established export links. |
| Keywords: | finance and export survival, transmission from finance to real economy, banks versus stock markets |
| JEL: | F14 G10 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2021_14&r= |
| By: | Stys, Pat; Kirk, Thomas; Muhindo, Samuel; Balume, Bauma; Mazuri, Papy; Tchumisi, Ishara; N'simire, Sandrine; Green, Duncan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines our experiences designing and implementing an experimental methodology to study households’ socioeconomic coping mechanisms in insecure, unstable, or conflict-affected contexts. Our method combined longitudinal household diaries with social network research to collect data on how 24 households living in Goma, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, use their financial and social resources to overcome daily struggles and unexpected shocks like bereavement and theft. Before outlining how the methods complement one another in this study, we overview how each has been employed separately for similar aims. We then turn to the realities of combining them in Goma, reflecting on foreseen and unanticipated challenges and how we addressed them – both successfully and not. Money matters are generally sensitive subjects, and particularly so in such environments. The threads that run through this assessment are those of forging and maintaining trust; translating across languages and cultures; and navigating an insecure and fast-changing environment. To contextualise a discussion of how these factors may have affected the research, data collected, and our conclusions, we provide two vignettes of households that participated in the study. Throughout, we also explore the potential effects of a water provision programme implemented by Mercy Corps that benefited some of the studied households. We conclude with recommendations for those wishing to build upon our method and for development programmes keen to use it to complement their own monitoring, evaluation, and learning. |
| Keywords: | Centre for Public Authority and International Development (CPAID) (ES/P008038/1); IMAGINE programme |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111548&r= |
| By: | Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | Media bias is an important and underexplored feature of the economics of information. In this paper, I outline two models that can be used to illustrate media bias in an introductory economics course. The models rely on relatively simple and intuitive underlying assumptions, and draw on related empirical research. They do not require extensive mathematical derivations, although the models can easily be extended for more mathematically-inclined students. The models are useful in linking economic theory and empirical research, in a context that undergraduate students can relate to and often have direct experience of. The models can also be used to motivate a range of discussions on media and competition policy. |
| Keywords: | Media bias; Economic teaching |
| JEL: | A22 L82 |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:21/08&r= |
| By: | José Dorich; Rhys R. Mendes; Yang Zhang |
| Abstract: | Since 1991, the Bank of Canada has had an inflation-targeting (IT) framework established by a joint agreement between the Bank and the Government of Canada. The framework is reviewed every five years as part of the process for renewing the inflation-control agreement. This discussion paper summarizes some interim results from Bank staff analysis done for the August 2020 workshop, “Towards the 2021 Renewal of the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework.” The Bank will publish updated analysis later in 2021. The core of the current framework—the 2 percent inflation target—has remained unchanged since 1995. This fact reflects its success. Well-anchored inflation expectations contribute to macroeconomic stability while leaving monetary policy with greater flexibility. The 2021 renewal highlights two key challenges facing Canadian monetary policy: (1) the low neutral rate of interest; and (2) the low interest rates associated with a low neutral rate that may encourage excessive risk-taking and debt accumulation To address these challenges, Bank staff are running a “horse race” of alternative monetary policy frameworks (i.e., alternatives to the 2 percent IT framework). Their work evaluates these alternatives using a broad range of qualitative and quantitative criteria and focuses on the macroeconomic performance of the alternative frameworks. The interim results we report in this discussion paper suggest overall that no framework dominates on all margins. As a result, the ranking depends on the relative weight placed on different criteria. |
| Keywords: | Central bank research; Economic models; Inflation targets; Monetary policy; Monetary policy framework; Monetary policy transmission |
| JEL: | E58 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:21-13&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | Wars and the threat of war remain constant realities in our societies, and the twentieth century has been particularly rich in deadly conflicts. However, the neoclassical current still assumes, never discussed as if it were self-evident, that international trade is a factor of peace; when states cannot and should not intervene in the national economy, they are no longer in a position to wage economic war. With the slogan "America first" inspired by mercantilism and government-controlled Chinese capitalism, the domination and demonstration effects of states obviously change the conditions of the international market economy. Moreover, short-term self-interest is not compatible with the need to collectively save the planet Earth in great danger. Capitalism reveals its flaws, especially in the fields of ecology, environment, climate, but also in the unbearable inequalities of income and power between countries or between citizens. |
| Abstract: | Les guerres et les menaces de guerre restent des réalités constantes dans nos sociétés et le vingtième siècle a été particulièrement friand de conflits meurtriers. Pourtant, le courant néoclassique émet toujours l'hypothèse, jamais discutée comme s'il s'agissait d'une évidence, que le commerce international est un facteur de paix.Lorsque les Etats ne peuvent et ne doivent pas intervenir dans l'économie nationale, ils ne sont plus en mesure e d'engager une guerre économique. Avec le slogan "America first" inspiré par le mercantilisme et le capitalisme chinois contrôlé par le gouvernement, les effets de domination et de démonstration des Etats modifient évidemment les conditions de l'économie de marché internationale. De plus, l'intérêt personnel de court terme n'est pas compatible avec la nécessité de sauver collectivement la planète Terre en grand danger. Le capitalisme révèle ses failles, notamment dans les domaines de l'écologie, de l'environnement, du climat, mais aussi dans les inégalités insupportables de revenus et de pouvoir entre pays ou entre les citoyens. |
| Keywords: | Peace,War,economics,management sciences,Paix,Guerre,Economie,science du management |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03315790&r= |
| By: | Andreeva, Andriyana |
| Abstract: | The present article examines some questions connected to the institute of working time in the modern digital conditions and in the context of remote work. Based on actual normative analysis the main questions, related to the necessity of actualization of the legal regulation are outlined. The limits/line between the working time and rest in the context of the idea for establishing of new subjective labour law as well as considering the relation of the institute working time to the protecting function of the labour law are examined. In conclusion and as result of the examination the challenges in front of the doctrine and legislator connected to the improvement of the institute in vies of its adequacy to the modern conditions of work prestation and flexible employment forms are marked. The scientific thesis of the author is for the necessity of actualization of the working time and establishing of subjective labour law, guaranteeing observance of the limits of the working time. |
| Keywords: | working time, rest, types of working time, remote work, flexible employment forms |
| JEL: | K31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109049&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | An explosive volcanic eruption that began on April 9 is hitting St. Vincent and the Grenadines hard, creating an urgent balance of payments need and a humanitarian crisis as the country continues to deal with the fallout from the global pandemic. The economy is estimated to have contracted in 2020 by 3.8 percent as tourism activity fell 70 percent. Before the eruption, economic growth was expected to be flat in 2021, as the global pandemic continued, and tourism remained depressed. While there is considerable uncertainty about the evolution of the eruption, staff estimate the infrastructure damage to exceed 20 percent of GDP and for the economy to contract by 6.1 percent in 2021 with agriculture and related sectors severely affected. |
| Date: | 2021–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/157&r= |
| By: | Somanchi, Anmol (IDinsight) |
| Abstract: | India’s statistical system is in bad shape with a near absence of regular publicly funded household surveys in recent years. All eyes have now turned to the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS), a panel survey of over 170,000 households, privately executed by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) since 2014. Given its breadth and high frequency, CPHS has become a widely referenced barometer of the Indan economy. Research papers using CPHS have also mushroomed. However, there has been little validation of the nature and quality of CPHS data. Most crucially, is it true that CPHS is an “all-India representative survey” as claimed by CMIE and echoed by multiple articles in prestigious journals? Comparing CPHS with various national surveys on a set of key demographic and economic indicators, this paper argues that, far from being nationally representative, CPHS under-represents women and young children, over-represents well-educated households and under-represents the poor. A possible source for these biases (among others) is the strange, unorthodox sampling design adopted by CMIE, which differs from standard sampling approaches on various counts. Further, the bias in the CPHS sample appears to be growing in recent years, posing a serious challenge when using the data to study trends over time |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qmce9&r= |
| By: | Hossain Ahmed Taufiq |
| Abstract: | The ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis is considered as one of the largest human-made humanitarian disasters of the 21st century. So far, Bangladesh is the largest recipient of these refugees. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA), approximately 650,000 new entrants have been recorded since the new violence erupted on 25 August 2017 in the Rakhine state of Myanmar.1 However, such crisis is nothing new in Bangladesh, nor are the security-related challenges new that such an exodus brings with it. Ever since the military came to power in Myanmar (in 1962), Rohingya exodus to neighboring countries became a recurring incident. The latest mass exodus of Rohingyas from Rakhine state of Myanmar to Bangladesh is the largest of such influxes. Unlike, the previous refugee crisis, the ongoing crisis has wide-ranging security implications on Bangladesh. They are also varied and multifaceted. Thus, responsibilities for ensuring effective protection have become operationally multilateral. The problem of security regarding the Rohingya refugee issue is complicated by the Islamist insurgency, illicit methamphetamine/yaba drug trafficking, and HIV/AIDS/STI prevalence factors. The chapter examines the different dimensions of security challenges that the recent spell of Rohingya exodus brings to Bangladesh and the refugees themselves. In order to understand the challenges, firstly the chapter attempts to conceptualize the prominent security frameworks. Secondly, it examines the context and political economy behind the persecution of Rohingyas in the Rakhine state. Thirdly, it explores the political and military aspects of security. Fourthly, it explores the social and economic dimensions. Finally, it examines the environmental impacts of Rohingya crisis in Bangladesh. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12080&r= |
| By: | Florian Landis (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Gustav Fredriksson (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Sebastian Rausch (ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University, Germany, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the distributional impacts from (i) harmonizing prices for carbon dioxide emissions across sectors and EU countries and (ii) using alternative rules for carbon revenue distribution. We develop a numerical multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model of the EU-27 economy which resolves household income deciles, based on micro-survey data on expenditure and income, and markets for fossil fuels, electricity, and (EU-wide and national) tradeable emissions rights. We find that carbon price harmonization yields efficiency gains at the EU level. The distributional effects between countries vary and depend largely on the redistribution of carbon revenues. Based on the rules currently in place in Phase IV of the EU ETS, efficiency gains flow disproportionately to low-income countries. Within-country incidence is progressive or neutral for most countries when revenue redistribution is ignored, and is not much affected by carbon price harmonization. Per-capita-based revenue redistribution rules lead to strong progressive outcomes and yield gains for low-income households. Evaluating different policy options using a social welfare function that incorporates inequality aversion suggests that there is no trade-off between efficiency and equity in harmonizing carbon prices in the EU economy. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing, Carbon market integration, EU climate policy, Distributional impacts, Cost effectiveness, Computable general equilibrium, Household heterogeneity |
| JEL: | C68 H23 Q43 Q52 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-361&r= |
| By: | Fischer, Kai; Reade, J. James; Schmal, W. Benedikt |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has caused economic shock waves across the globe. Much research addresses direct health implications of an infection, but to date little is known about how this shapes lasting economic effects. This paper estimates the workplace productivity effects of COVID-19 by studying performance of soccer players after an infection. We construct a dataset that encompasses all traceable infections in the elite leagues of Germany and Italy. Relying on a staggered difference-in-differences design, we identify negative short- and longer-run performance effects. Relative to their preinfection outcomes, infected players' performance temporarily drops by more than 6%. Over half a year later, it is still around 5% lower. The negative effects appear to have notable spillovers on team performance. We argue that our results could have important implications for labor markets and public health in general. Countries and firms with more infections might face economic disadvantages that exceed the temporary pandemic shock due to potentially long-lasting reductions in productivity. |
| Keywords: | Labor Performance,Economic Costs of COVID-19,Public Health |
| JEL: | I18 J24 J44 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:368&r= |
| By: | Laetitia Gohlou Diomandé (UICL - CERF - Centre, d’Etudes, de Recherche et de Formation Continue, Sup'management.); Cedric Yao (UICL - CERF - Centre, d’Etudes, de Recherche et de Formation Continue, Sup'management.) |
| Abstract: | The asymmetry of information, resulting from the agency theory, is an aspect that is much complained about by banks regarding SMEs in Africa; and is one of the main reasons for the lack of financing of which these SMEs are victims. The informal structure of the African SME is the main reason for this information asymmetry. Thus far, banks have been content to require African SMEs to adapt to their operations, such as having financial data that meets legal requirements, but this has only widened the gap between these two actors. This thesis proposes the modeling of an information system that is as well adapted to the constraints of banks as to those of the African SME, in order to promote the permanent sharing of information between these two actors. The modeled system would allow both banks to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on African SMEs and the latter to meet the requirements of banks to obtain the financing they need. |
| Abstract: | L'asymétrie d'information, issue de la théorie de l'agence est un aspect qui est beaucoup décrié par les banques concernant les PME en Afrique ; et est l'une des causes du manque de financement dont sont victimes ces PME. Le caractère informel de la PME Africaine est la principale cause de cette asymétrie d'informations. Jusqu'à présent les banques se sont contentées d'exiger des PME Africaines qu'elles s'adaptent à leur fonctionnement comme le fait de disposer de données financières répondant aux critères légaux, mais cela n'a fait que creuser un peu plus le fossé entre ces deux acteurs. Cet article propose la modélisation d'un système d'informations aussi bien adaptée aux contraintes des banques qu'à celles de la PME Africaine, afin de favoriser le partage permanent d'informations entre ces deux acteurs. Le système modélisé permettrait à la fois aux banques d'obtenir des informations qualitatives et quantitatives sur les PME Africaines et à ces dernières de répondre aux exigences des banques pour l'obtention des financements dont elles ont besoin. |
| Keywords: | SME,Bank,Social netork,Informal sector,Financing,Asymétrie of information,information system,Process modeling,Accounting software,système d’information,asymétrie d’information,financement,secteur informel,Banque,PME,modélisation de processus,réseau social,logiciel comptable |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03317678&r= |
| By: | Yoshihara, Naoki |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we have reviewed the labor theory of value as the basis for the analysis of economic inequality in the capitalist economy. According to the standard Marxian view, the system of labor values of individual commodities can serve as the center of gravity for long-term price fluctuations in the precapitalist economy with simple commodity-production, where no exploitative social relation emerges, while in the modern capitalist economy, the labor value system is replaced by the prices of production associated with an equal positive rate of profits as the center of gravity, in which exploitative relation between the capitalist and the working classes is a generic and persistent feature of economic inequality. Some of the literature such as Morishima (1973, 1974) criticized this view by showing that the labor values of individual commodities are no longer well-defined if the capitalist economy has joint production. Given these arguments, this paper firstly shows that the system of individual labor values can be still well-defined in the capitalist economy with joint production whenever the set of available production techniques is all-productive. Secondly, this paper shows that it is generally impossible to verify that the labor-value pricing serves as the center of gravity for price fluctuations in precapitalist economies characterized by the full development of simple commodity-production. |
| Keywords: | UE-Exploitation, The Labor Theory of Value, Prices of Production |
| JEL: | D63 D51 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:724&r= |
| By: | Salifou Ndam (Université de Yaoundé I [Yaoundé]) |
| Abstract: | The Cameroonian state advocates secularism. Yet, more than 50 years after the country's independence, the issue of secularism remains quite complex and ambiguous in terms of public ownership and various interpretations observed. Starting from this logic, the religious manifests himself without limits, and on varied and differentiated scales, in the different spheres of daily life. In public services, for example, it takes the form of the omnipresence of objects and places of worship on workspaces and in professional interactions between public servants and users. Although officially deviant, this practice is the result of the real need for public servants to bring their religions to the workplace in the name of secularism and freedom of religion. Because of the apparent confusion between secularism and freedom of worship, religion is positioned in public services not only as an element of social marking, but also as a tool for claiming identity, religious mobilization and guiding the conduct of public servants and users. This reconfiguration of the social relationships between public servants and between public servants and users calls into question the cardinal requirements of the public service, in the administrative sense of the term. Consequently, this article uses data from direct observations in Yaounde, the capital city of Cameroon, and semi-directive interviews with users and public servants in five ministries, focuses on the analyses of the relationship that exist between individuals and secularism. It emerges that the preponderance of religious facts in public services is part of a questioning of the administrative and professional ethics of public servants, and of the various considerations of the notion of secularism by Cameroonian society in general. Although the latter are contradictory, its multiplicity and consequences constitute a proof of the religious cohabitation, the conciliation and the sharing of subjectivities in the jobsite, and at the same time a breach of the performance and efficiency of public servants in Cameroon. |
| Abstract: | L'État camerounais prône la laïcité. Pourtant, plus de 50 ans après l'indépendance officielle du pays, la question de la laïcité demeure assez complexe et ambiguë en termes d'appropriation publique et de diverses interprétations. En effet, le religieux se manifeste sans limite, et à des échelles variées et différenciées, dans les multiples sphères de la vie quotidienne. Dans les services publics par exemple, il se matérialise par l'omniprésence d'objets et lieux de culte sur les espaces de travail et dans les interactions professionnelles entre agents et usagers. Bien qu'étant officiellement déviante, cette pratique résulte du besoin réel des agents publics d'emporter leurs religions dans leurs lieux de travail, au nom de la laïcité et de la liberté de culte. Du fait de l'apparente confusion entre laïcité et liberté de culte, la religion se positionne dans les services publics non seulement comme un élément de marquage social, mais aussi comme un outil de revendication identitaire, de mobilisation religieuse et un guide des conduites des agents et usagers. Cette reconfiguration des rapports sociaux des agents publics entre eux et des agents publics avec des usagers remet en question l'une des exigences cardinales du service public, au sens administratif du terme. Par conséquent, le présent article s'appuie sur les données issues des observations directes à Yaoundé, la capitale du pays, et des entretiens semi-directifs avec les usagers et agents publics de cinq ministères, pour analyser les rapports des individus à la laïcité. Il en ressort que la prépondérance des faits religieux dans les services publics participe d'une remise en question de la déontologie administrative et professionnelle des agents publics, et des considérations diverses de la notion de laïcité par la société camerounaise en général. Bien que ces dernières soient contradictoires, leur multiplicité et ses conséquences constituent une preuve de la cohabitation religieuse, de conciliation et de partage des subjectivités au travail, et en même temps une entorse au rendement et à l'efficacité des agents publics au Cameroun. |
| Date: | 2021–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03264105&r= |
| By: | Patrick Reichert; Marek Hudon; Ariane Szafarz; Robert K. Christensen |
| Abstract: | In today’s multisector configurations, there is little clarity about whether and how public and private subsidies influence social enterprises’ pursuit of financial stability. We address the strategic role of donors in the social-business life cycle whereby social enterprise start-ups rely on subsidies, while mature social enterprises strive for independence from donors. To address the “missing middle,” we develop a typology of subsidy instruments and an intermediary signaling model to clarify how subsidies shape the evolution of outcomes for social enterprises. We argue that source variation matters for certain instruments like corporate intangibles and governmentally subsidized credit guarantees, which trigger crowding-in effects and attract commercial partners, while preventing perverse crowding-out effects, such as soft budget constraints. To illustrate this commercialization story, we draw upon a microfinance case study, demonstrating how public and private donors can induce crowding-in and crowding-out effects. In short, our subsidy typology helps unpack the signals that public and private subsidies send to commercial funders of social enterprises and how they shape the path to future financial independence. |
| Keywords: | Subsidy; Crowding-in; Crowding-out; Signaling theory; Resource acquisition; Social finance |
| JEL: | H83 G23 H81 M16 M14 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/329773&r= |
| By: | Sacchetto, Camilla; Daniel, Egas; Danquah, Michael; Telli, Henry |
| Keywords: | coronavirus; Covid-19 |
| JEL: | N0 E6 |
| Date: | 2020–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111562&r= |
| By: | Kumar Sur, Pramod |
| Abstract: | Can a domestic policy implemented by the government in the past help explain the puzzling practice of health care usage today? I study this question in the context of India, where households' use of primary health care services presents a paradox. A significant fraction of Indian households uses fee-charging private health care services even though most providers have no formal medical qualifications. The private share of health care use is even higher in markets where qualified doctors offer free care through public clinics. Combining contemporary household-level data with archival records, I examine the aggressive family planning program implemented during the emergency rule in the 1970s and explore whether the coercion, disinformation, and carelessness involved in implementing the program could partly explain the puzzle. Exploiting the timing of the emergency rule, state-level variation in the number of sterilizations, and an instrumental variable approach, I show that the states heavily affected by the sterilization policy have a lower level of public health care usage today. I demonstrate the mechanism for this practice by showing that the states heavily affected by forced sterilizations have a lower level of confidence in government hospitals and doctors and a higher level of confidence in private hospitals and doctors in providing good treatment. |
| Keywords: | Health care market, health care usage, confidence in institutions, sterilization, persistence, India, I11, N35, I12, J13 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000186&r= |
| By: | Anuradha Singh |
| Abstract: | Rapid rise in income inequality in India is a serious concern. While the emphasis is on inclusive growth, it seems difficult to tackle the problem without looking at the intricacies of the problem. The Social Mobility Index is an important tool that focuses on bringing long-term equality by identifying priority policy areas in the country. The PCA technique is employed in computation of the index. Overall, the Union Territory of Delhi ranks first, with the highest social mobility and the least social mobility is in Chhattisgarh. In addition, health and education access, quality and equity are key priority areas that can help improve social mobility in India. Thus, we conclude that human capital is of great importance in promoting social mobility and development in the present times. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.08816&r= |
| By: | Gaggero, A.; Ajnakina, O.; Hackett, R.A |
| Abstract: | The extent to which heavy smoking and early retirement are causally related remains to be determined. To overcome the endogeneity of heavy smoking behaviour, we employ a novel approach by exploiting Mendelian Randomisation and use genetic predisposition to heavy smoking, as measured with a polygenic risk score (PGS), as an instrumental variable. A total of 3578 participants from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (mean age 64.41 years) had data on smoking behaviour, employment and a heavy smoking PGS. Heavy smoking was indexed as smoking at least 20 cigarettes a day. Early retirement was classified as retiring before state pension age. Our results show that being a heavy smoker increases significantly the probability of early retirement. Results were robust to a battery of robustness checks and a falsification test. Overall, our findings support a causal pathway from heavy smoking to early retirement. |
| Keywords: | smoking; early retirement; polygenic risk scores; instrumental variable; mendelian randomisation |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:21/12&r= |
| By: | Ulrike Malmendier |
| Abstract: | This article establishes four key findings of the growing literature on experience effects in finance: (1) the long-lasting imprint of past experiences on beliefs and risk taking, (2) recency effects, (3) the domain-specificity of experience effects, and (4) imperviousness to information that is not experience-based. I first discuss the neuroscientific foundations of experience-based learning and sketch a simple model of its role in the stock market based on Malmendier et al. (2020a,b). I then distill the empirical findings on experience effects in stock-market investment, trade dynamics, and international capital flows, highlighting these four key features. Finally, I contrast models of belief formation that rely on “learned information” with models accounting for the neuroscience evidence on synaptic tagging and memory formation, and provide directions for future research. |
| JEL: | D03 D8 D83 D87 D9 E17 E52 E7 G02 G4 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29074&r= |
| By: | Salaheddine Soummane (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); F. Ghersi (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Franck Lecocq (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We implement the hybrid (energy-economy) recursive-dynamic multisector IMACLIM model with important adaptations to Saudi macroeconomics. We design two scenarios reflecting both the Saudi Vision 2030 economic development program and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to greenhouse gas mitigation: Continuity of previous plans to expand energy-intensive activities under maintained energy-pricing policies, versus Transformation by economic diversification away from hydrocarbon-related activities and fiscal and energypricing reforms. We show that, compared to Continuity, Transformation improves activity, employment and public budget outlooks, while considerably abating the energy intensity of GDP and total CO2 emissions. Our results thus point at the relevance of economic diversification as both a hedging strategy against international climate change mitigation depressing oil markets and a national climate mitigation strategy for Saudi Arabia. However, the successful advancement of the reforms necessary for diversification remains conditional to setting a suitable institutional framework for a competitive economy. |
| Keywords: | Economic diversification,General equilibrium,Oil-exporting country,Climate policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319116&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Greece entered the pandemic with an unfinished recovery, but the country has demonstrated resilience in facing COVID-19. The economy contracted by 8.2 percent in 2020, better than expected given Greece’s high dependence on tourism and pre-existing vulnerabilities. The government provided among the largest on-budget fiscal stimuli in the euro zone and supervisory and ECB accommodation shielded the banking sector and kept financing conditions highly accommodative. Despite the pandemic, reforms progressed in a number of areas, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/154&r= |
| By: | Ardito, Chiara (University of Turin); Berton, Fabio (University of Turin); Pacelli, Lia (University of Turin); Passerini, Filippo (Catholic University Milan) |
| Abstract: | We measure the impact of employment protection reduction in an uncertain framework on firms' hires and performance, exploiting the Italian 2015 Jobs Act. Results indicate that firms (1) stabilize workforce mainly through contract transformations of low-tenure and low-human-capital incumbent workers performing high-physical and low-intellectual tasks; (2) apply a cost-saving strategy that increases profits and decreases value added per-head. Effects are stronger among non-exporting and non-innovative firms. Our evidence casts doubts on the effectiveness of employment protection reductions in enhancing productivity in the long run. |
| Keywords: | employment protection, human capital, productivity, tenure, tasks |
| JEL: | J08 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14613&r= |
| By: | Biagio Bossone |
| Abstract: | This article speaks to post-Keynesian economists and their fundamental vision of monetary production economies. It focuses on the role of commercial banks as creators of money in monetary production economies and studies the rent-extraction power of banks in the form of "seigniorage." The article examines how the relative size of banks in the payment system combines with their capacity to determine quantities and prices in the market for demand deposits and gives them the power to extract seigniorage from the economy; it clarifies the distinction between seigniorage originating from commercial bank money creation and profits derived from pure financial intermediation; and analyzes how seigniorage affects the economy’s price level and resource distribution. The article draws political-economy and economic-policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Commercial banks; Interest rate; Money creation; Prices; Resource distribution; Seigniorage |
| JEL: | E19 E20 E31 E40 E52 E58 E62 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2111&r= |
| By: | André Kurmann; Étienne Lalé; Lien Ta |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an explosion of research using real-time establishment-level data. One key challenge when working with this data is how to take into account the effects of business openings and closings. In this paper, we address this challenge by matching small business establishment records from Homebase with information on business activity from Google, Facebook, and Safegraph to distinguish business closings and openings from other sample exits and entry. We show that this distinction is critical to benchmark the data to pre-pandemic administrative records and estimate the effects of the pandemic on small business activity. We find four key results: (1) employment of small businesses in four of the hardest hit service sectors contracted more severely in the beginning of the pandemic than employment of larger businesses, but small businesses also rebounded more strongly and have on average recovered a higher share of job losses than larger businesses; (2) closings account for 70% of the initial decline in small business employment, but two thirds of closed businesses have reopened and the annual rate of closings is just slightly higher than prior to the pandemic; (3) new openings of small businesses constitute an important driver of the recovery but the annual rate of new openings is only about half the rate one year earlier (4) small business employment was affected less negatively in counties with early access to loans from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and in counties where Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) was more generous relative to pre-pandemic earnings of likely recipients, with business closings accounting for a large part of these two effects. The results dispel the popular notion that small businesses continue to suffer more from the pandemic than larger businesses. At the same time, our analysis suggests that PPP and FPUC helped to signifocantly mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic for small businesses by, respectively, alleviating financial constraints and stimulating demand for local services. La pandémie de COVID-19 a donné lieu à une explosion des recherches utilisant des données en temps réel au niveau des établissements. L'un des principaux défis à relever lorsqu'on travaille avec ces données est de prendre en compte les effets des ouvertures et des fermetures d'entreprises. Dans cet article, nous relevons ce défi en faisant correspondre les enregistrements des établissements de petites entreprises de Homebase avec les informations sur l'activité commerciale de Google, Facebook et Safegraph afin de distinguer les fermetures et ouvertures d'entreprises des autres sorties et entrées de l'échantillon. Nous montrons que cette distinction est essentielle pour comparer les données aux dossiers administratifs pré-pandémie et estimer les effets de la pandémie sur l'activité des petites entreprises. Nous trouvons quatre résultats clés : (1) l'emploi des petites entreprises dans quatre des secteurs de services les plus durement touchés s'est contracté plus sévèrement au début de la pandémie que l'emploi des grandes entreprises, mais les petites entreprises ont également rebondi plus fortement et ont en moyenne récupéré une part plus importante des pertes d'emploi que les grandes entreprises ; (2) les fermetures représentent 70 % de la baisse initiale de l'emploi des petites entreprises, mais deux tiers des entreprises fermées ont rouvert et le taux annuel de fermetures est à peine plus élevé qu'avant la pandémie ; (3) les nouvelles ouvertures de petites entreprises constituent un moteur important de la reprise, mais le taux annuel de nouvelles ouvertures n'est que la moitié environ du taux enregistré un an plus tôt (4) l'emploi des petites entreprises a été moins affecté dans les comtés qui ont eu accès rapidement aux prêts du Programme de protection des salaires (PPP) et dans les comtés où l'indemnisation fédérale du chômage en cas de pandémie (FPUC) a été plus généreuse par rapport aux revenus des bénéficiaires probables avant la pandémie, les fermetures d'entreprises expliquant une grande partie de ces deux effets. Les résultats réfutent la notion populaire selon laquelle les petites entreprises continuent de souffrir davantage de la pandémie que les grandes entreprises. Dans le même temps, notre analyse suggère que le PPP et le FPUC ont contribué à atténuer de manière significative les effets négatifs de la pandémie pour les petites entreprises, respectivement en allégeant les contraintes financières et en stimulant la demande de services locaux. |
| Keywords: | Economics of small and medium enterprises,Labor turnover,Sampling bias,Matched data,COVID-19,Sector policies, Economie des petites et moyennes entreprises,Rotation de la main d’œuvre,Biais d’échantillonnage,Données appariées,COVID-19,Politiques sectorielles |
| JEL: | E01 E24 E32 E60 |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2021s-26&r= |
| By: | William Chen (Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Gregory Phelan (Department of Economics, Williams College) |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy can promote financial stability and improve household welfare. We consider a macro model with a financial sector in which banks do not actively issue equity, output and growth depend on the aggregate level of bank equity, and equilibrium is inefficient. Monetary policy rules responding to the financial sector are ex-ante stabilizing because their effects on risk premia decrease the likelihood of crises and boost leverage during downturns. Stability gains from monetary policy increase welfare whenever macroprudential policy is poorly targeted. If macroprudential policy is sufficiently well-targeted to promote financial stability, then monetary policy should not target financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Central bank mandate, Leaning against the wind, Fed Put, Macroprudential policy, Banks, Liquidity |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G01 G12 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Geoff Boeing; Max Besbris; David Wachsmuth; Jake Wegmann |
| Abstract: | This article interprets emerging scholarship on rental housing platforms -- particularly the most well-known and used short- and long-term rental housing platforms - and considers how the technological processes connecting both short-term and long-term rentals to the platform economy are transforming cities. It discusses potential policy approaches to more equitably distribute benefits and mitigate harms. We argue that information technology is not value-neutral. While rental housing platforms may empower data analysts and certain market participants, the same cannot be said for all users or society at large. First, user-generated online data frequently reproduce the systematic biases found in traditional sources of housing information. Evidence is growing that the information broadcasting potential of rental housing platforms may increase rather than mitigate sociospatial inequality. Second, technology platforms curate and shape information according to their creators' own financial and political interests. The question of which data -- and people -- are hidden or marginalized on these platforms is just as important as the question of which data are available. Finally, important differences in benefits and drawbacks exist between short-term and long-term rental housing platforms, but are underexplored in the literature: this article unpacks these differences and proposes policy recommendations. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.08229&r= |
| By: | Damian Grimshaw (King's Business School, King's College London); Marcela Miozzo (King's Business School, King's College London) |
| Keywords: | productivity, human capital, skill, innovation |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:006&r= |
| By: | Charles I. Jones |
| Abstract: | The nonrivalry of ideas gives rise to increasing returns, a fact celebrated in Paul Romer's recent Nobel Prize. An implication is that the long-run rate of economic growth is the product of the degree of increasing returns and the growth rate of research effort; this is the essence of semi-endogenous growth theory. This paper interprets past and future growth from a semi-endogenous perspective. For 50+ years, U.S. growth has substantially exceeded its long-run rate because of rising educational attainment, declining misallocation, and rising (global) research intensity, implying that frontier growth could slow markedly in the future. Other forces push in the opposite direction. First is the prospect of "finding new Einsteins": how many talented researchers have we missed historically because of the underdevelopment of China and India and because of barriers that discouraged women inventors? Second is the longer-term prospect that artificial intelligence could augment or even replace people as researchers. Throughout, the paper highlights many opportunities for further research. |
| JEL: | E0 O4 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29126&r= |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the relationship between governance and human development in Africa during the period 2010-2019 taking into account the existence of spatial dependence and controlling the endogeneity problem through a Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). The exploratory spatial data analysis reveals the existence of spatial dependence of human development and governance quality. Our empirical findings support that in Africa, “good fences make good neighbours†or proximity matters in the distribution of human development. Implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Governance, human development, Africa |
| JEL: | D31 I10 I32 K40 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/051&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Human resource development and continuous training are a precondition for organizational and socio-economic resilience and development. It is also vital to build integrated training programs, especially for the unemployed nowadays, considering the major challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in various labor markets internationally. This article aims to distinguish fundamental theoretical and practical dimensions of structuring business training programs and supporting learning and innovation after investigating critical trends of conceptual readjustment of modern management theory. A significant conclusion is that a business training program has to synthesize the organization’s strategic, technological, and managerial potential and goals (Stra.Tech.Man approach), valorizing the basic principles of integrated planning, organizing, implementing, and controlling. A novel training program framework is suggested, attributing particular weight to developing structured mechanisms for training unemployed population groups at the local level. |
| Keywords: | Training program; Unemployment; Post-COVID-19 era; Stra.Tech.Man approach; Modern management; Human resource development; Innovation; Knowledge development |
| JEL: | O15 O32 |
| Date: | 2021–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_006&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Today’s tensions and challenges at the global governance level seem to constitute structural expressions of the global system’s mutations towards the post-COVID-19 era. This study examines whether the structural changes observed in various socio-economic dimensions and interdependent spatial levels due to the pandemic crisis are accelerating the emergence of a new phase of global governance. It investigates whether Rodrik’s trilemma (the incompatibility of synchronously achieving national sovereignty, democracy and globalization) seems to be relatively inadequate to approach today’s emerging global reality and challenges comprehensively. After an elliptic overview of world governance’s evolutionary shaping and reaching the present-day necessarily repositioned role of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS), we argue that these countries must no longer be perceived as emerging exceptional cases but as central participants, equally responsible for promoting a more balanced and sustainable development perspective for the less developed socio-economic formations and the entire global socio-economic system’s stability. We conclude that in the progressively shaped ‘new globalization’, which is a distinct evolutionary phase of the international economy and international relations, Rodrik’s trilemma seems to some extent analytically insufficient since there is no more a sustainable optimum in any of its coupled dimensions, which could allow a viable exit from the current crisis. |
| Keywords: | global governance; BRICS; post-COVID-19 era; new globalization; global socio-economic development; Rodrik’s trilemma |
| JEL: | F63 F69 |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_008&r= |
| By: | Elsje Alessandra Quadrelli (IRCELYON - Institut de recherches sur la catalyse et l'environnement de Lyon - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); François Ozanam (LPMC - Laboratoire de physique de la matière condensée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - X - École polytechnique); Louise Jalowiecki-Duhamel (UCCS - Unité de Catalyse et Chimie du Solide - UMR 8181 - CLIL - Centrale Lille Institut - UA - Université d'Artois - Ecole Centrale de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lille); Travert Arnaud (LCS - Laboratoire catalyse et spectrochimie - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ENSICAEN - École Nationale Supérieure d'Ingénieurs de Caen - NU - Normandie Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Myrtil L. Kahn (LCC - Laboratoire de chimie de coordination - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - ICT-FR 2599 - Institut de Chimie de Toulouse - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Paola Nava (ISM2 - Institut des Sciences Moléculaires de Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-François Guillemoles (IPVF - Institut Photovoltaïque d’Ile-de-France (ITE)); Hazar Guesmi (ICGM ICMMM - Institut Charles Gerhardt Montpellier - Institut de Chimie Moléculaire et des Matériaux de Montpellier - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENSCM - Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Chimie de Montpellier) |
| Date: | 2021–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03311372&r= |
| By: | Südekum, Jens |
| Abstract: | Place-based policies had a bad reputation for decades, if they received any attention at all. This has recently changed, for two reasons. First, many countries have experienced political backlashes from rising spatial economic disparities. Populist movements received the highest support in economically backward regions, which had been hit by severe local shocks. By trying to foster spatial economic cohesion, regional policies have become an attempt to insure against those political trends and to save liberal democracies altogether. Second, recent theoretical and empirical research has challenged the leading paradigm of spatial equilibrium analysis, according to which place-based policies are an inefficient interference into the market-based resource allocation. In this paper, I review those arguments and how their balance has changed over time. I argue that the demand for place-based policies is likely to increase in the future, as new digital technologies might reinforce urban-rural divides. But even if the general case for place-based policies now seems to be more widely accepted, the question remains what exactly should be done and which type of programs generate the highest return. Digging through the vast evaluation literature, I try to derive some robust lessons how to conduct place-based policies in practise. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:367&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic performance and buffers were strong when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Economic and social restrictions instituted in March 2020 helped slow new infections and mitigate negative health outcomes but triggered a deep decline in activity in Q2:2020. The slump was followed by a strong rebound in Q3 as the restrictions were eased. With the resurgence of the virus, pressures on the health system peaked in late-March 2021 and eased after a new round of restrictions. Going forward, the outlook is for a near-term economic recovery subject to large two-way risks. The strength and durability of the recovery hinges on the evolution of the health situation and the extent of economic scarring from the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | policy support; data provision; statistics database; policy buffer; Policy discussion; debt data; COVID-19; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial statistics; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/160&r= |
| By: | Sichko, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Migration is among the most basic adaptation methods to inhospitable environments and has large economic consequences for both migrants and the broader economy. To estimate the impact of the worst drought in U.S. history on migration, I match 1940 census data with county-level drought conditions. I find that drought substantially increased migration rates for individuals with a 12th grade education or higher but had little impact on migration rates for people with less education. This differential migration response to drought by education was most pronounced in counties with larger economic downturns during the Great Depression, consistent with the hypothesis that individual liquidity constraints limited migration for people with lower human capital. In terms of where migrants went, I show that the majority of migrants in the late 1930s relocated to rural destinations. In fact, migrants from drought counties were less likely to relocate to cities compared to similar migrants from non-drought counties. These findings detail the impact of widespread drought for Depression-era migration and document the central role of individual human capital in the uptake of migration from climate shocks. |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wm2p3&r= |
| By: | Yassine Boussenna (GRMSI - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"- - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"-); Ouail El Kharraz (GRMSI - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"- - UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"-) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this study was to verify the moderating role of Information Technology on the relationship between KM implementation and organizational performance in a university context through Abdelmalek Essaadi University. by collecting the views of teacher-researchers, using a hypothetical-deductive reasoning approach and a quantitative working method. Our questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of 88 teacher-researchers from the different institutions of the university under study. The results obtained using Hierarchical regression prove the moderating and positive role of Information technology on the intensity of the relationship between the application of the KM and (Training, research, publication, and governance) as indicators of organizational performance with a change in the correlation rate from R=0.917 to R=0.974 with the addition of leadership as a moderator variable with a degree of impact of 5.7%. This paper presents empirical evidence on the importance of the organizational, technical, and human factors on knowledge management implementation and enhancing performance. |
| Keywords: | organizational performance,Information Technology,knowledge management |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319115&r= |
| By: | Trejo-Pech, Carlos J.O.; White, Susan; Smith, Robert H. |
| Abstract: | Cal-Maine Foods Inc., the largest shell egg producer in the world, had historically operated with low debt levels relative to debt ratios in other industries and within agribusiness. In its third fiscal quarter report, issued by the end of March 2021, Cal-Maine reported no debt in its balance sheet, making this company one of the few debt-free publicly traded agribusinesses in the U.S. This case analyzes Cal-Maine’s capital structure, which represents a rare case for exploring and challenging the notion of optimal capital structure in theory and practice. Understanding the rationale behind a debt-free firm’s policy is puzzling because financial theory predicts that adding debt up to certain level −the optimal capital structure− creates economic value. According to surveyed chief financial officers, there is also evidence that practitioners use an optimal capital structure framework for financial management decisions. By applying a framework allowing for both qualitative and quantitative analysis, this case reviews the benefits and costs of debt in the capital structure, as applied to Cal-Maine. The case asks students to evaluate potential recapitalization policies in which Cal-Maine adds debt to its capital structure and use debt proceeds plus excess cash to repurchase shares at the prevailing price as of the end of May 2021. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313135&r= |
| By: | Narayan, Swati |
| Abstract: | Narayan’s book The Dravidian Years provides a rare glimpse of the political economy landscape of the most transformative period in Tamil Nadu’s social history from an insider’s perspective of a former public administrator who has served for three decades in the Indian bureaucracy. The book depicts the southern Indian state’s evolution from a deeply casteist British province to one with a radical social justice agenda, which over time however mutates into a more diluted hybrid amalgamation of capitalistic economic development with an ingrained ethos of populist social welfare. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a84n5&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | B. mining revenue; revenue management; tax exemption; A. mining revenue; company Cost Structure; Mining sector; Oil, gas and mining taxes; Corporate income tax; Transfer pricing; Natural resources; Asia and Pacific; Global |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/147&r= |
| By: | Cheung, Stephen L. (University of Sydney); Tymula, Agnieszka (University of Sydney); Wang, Xueting (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Quasi-hyperbolic discounting is one of the most well-known and widely-used models to capture self-control problems in the economics literature. The underlying assumption of this model is that agents have a "present bias" toward current consumption such that all future rewards are downweighed relative to rewards in the present (in addition to standard exponential discounting for the length of delay). We report a meta-analytic dataset of estimates of the present bias parameter β based on searches of all major research databases (62 papers with 81 estimates in total). We find that the literature shows that people are on average present biased for both monetary rewards (β = 0.82, 95% confidence interval of [0.74, 0.90]) and nonmonetary rewards (β = 0.66, 95% confidence interval of [0.51, 0.85]) but that substantial heterogeneity exists across studies. The source of this heterogeneity comes from the subject pool, elicitation methodology, geographical location, payment method, mode of data collection (e.g. laboratory or field), and reward type. There is evidence of selective reporting and publication bias in the direction of overestimating the strength of present-bias (making β estimates smaller), but present bias still exists after correcting for these issues (for money β = 0.87 with 95% confidence interval of [0.82, 0.92] after correcting for selective reporting). |
| Keywords: | quasi-hyperbolic discounting, present bias, beta-delta model, meta-analysis |
| JEL: | C91 D12 D80 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14625&r= |
| By: | Jagjit Chadha; Hande Kucuk; Adrian Pabst |
| Abstract: | {Foreward by Jagjit Chadha) The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has focussed on furthering our understanding of fiscal policy throughout most of its life. And so I was delighted when the Nuffield Foundation gave us the opportunity to ask some hard questions about our current fiscal settlement. With the Covid-19 pandemic continuing to throw much of our normal loci completely off beam, it is a good time to consider the role of fiscal policy. Our work has been motivated by the simple observation that we need to re-examine carefully the objectives, instruments and framework guiding fiscal policy. Naturally, some aspects of our current fiscal settlement have involved worthwhile and probably enduring innovations, such as the establishment of the Office for Budget Responsibility in 2010. But it is abundantly clear that the fiscal settlement in the Long Expansion of 1992-2007 and in the period following the global financial crisis of 2007-8 need careful re-framing if we are to tackle the deep seated economic problems revealed by EU exit and the Covid-19 pandemic. Fiscal policy represents a complex, multifaceted attempt by the state to fill gaps in the market economy and encourage the private sector to locate productive practices. But to meet those objectives fiscal policies have to be both sufficiently flexible to respond to changing circumstances but also be guided by some form of principles or rules that allow progress to be judged and expectations formed about the likely path of public expenditure, taxes and debt. Too much fiscal policy operates by the smoke and mirrors of political surprise and partial leak rather than the more sober manner of timetabled meetings and clear, minuted decisions that characterise monetary policy, to name but one example. The large number of fiscal rules we have had to observe since 2010 alongside an increasing frustration with economic performance tell us that the post-2010 fiscal settlement has failed. It makes no sense to be in thrall to arbitrary rules that do not match society's broader demands for policy to be condoned by what I have called “Budgetarians†, who think it is sufficient to assess fiscal policy in terms of whether that arbitrary target will or will not be hit at some equally arbitrary date coincidental with a parliamentary term. The sad but obvious fact is that the demands of the economy cannot be folded into political horizons. In this Occasional Paper we have collected a number of views from a variety of experts. We have worked with two former central bankers to try and understand the meaning of fiscal space both from the supply side of debt issuance and the demand side of investment demand. Two former Chief Secretaries to the Treasury provide considerable details from their times in office. And a former Whitehall civil servant helps us understand the approaches to spending controls. We have commissioned an academic contribution on how to approach the current debt problem following Covid-19 but also an introspection from an academiccum-market participant on the value of debt. Original work from myself and colleagues at NIESR examines the political framework, the theory of monetary and fiscal interactions, how politicians seem to revise expenditure plans, how changes in economic prospects also matter for revision and then the case of issuing different types of debt. Finally, we are very grateful that two former Chancellors have agreed to write Forewords to this book and that the current Head of the Government Economic Service has supported our interest in developing more attention on fiscal policy. Obviously, none of them necessarily agree with any of the points made or conclusions drawn. It is our simple hope that our line of enquiry will motivate serious examination of our fiscal settlement. While what we say cannot necessarily be thought to be the Treasury View, it is certainly the view from Dean Trench Street. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, fiscal framework, macroprudential policy, central banks, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E62 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesro:61&r= |
| By: | Liepmann, Hannah (ILO International Labour Organization); Pignatti, Clemente (ILO International Labour Organization) |
| Abstract: | We analyze for the first time the welfare effects of unemployment benefits (UBs) in a context of high informality, exploiting matched administrative and survey data with individual-level information on UB receipt, formal and informal employment, wages and consumption. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that dismissal from a formal job causes a large drop in consumption, which is between three to six times larger than estimates for developed economies. This is generated by a permanent shift of UB recipients towards informal employment, where they earn substantially lower wages. We then exploit a kink in benefits and show that more generous UBs delay program exit through a substitution of formal with informal employment. However, the disincentive effects are small and short-lived. Because of the high insurance value and the low efficiency costs, welfare effects from increasing UBs are positive for a range of values of the coefficient of relative risk aversion. |
| Keywords: | unemployment benefits, welfare effects, informal employment |
| JEL: | J46 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14601&r= |
| By: | Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Demertzis, Michail (Democritus University of Thrace, School of Law); Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In today’s unprecedented transformation in the global socio-economic system caused by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis and the escalating fourth industrial revolution, reinforcing innovative entrepreneurship appears a significant policy objective that can lead to overall socio-economic development. In this drastically changed context, entrepreneurship support policies seem that they need to be both conceptually and practically readjusted, simultaneously at the macro, meso, and micro levels. This paper investigates the case of public entrepreneurship policies in the European Union (EU), aiming to find specific patterns and suggest a new multilevel policy framework. Initially, the article offers a brief overview of the related trends created in the emerging post-COVID-19 era. Next, the “competitiveness web” perspective in terms of “macro-meso-micro” level synthesis is presented, considering that it can function as a theoretical framework for entrepreneurship reinforcement. Recent EU entrepreneurship support policy guidelines are then explored, emphasizing the latest trends and the development opportunities arising with the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility establishment to deal with the consequences of the current health and socio-economic crisis. Upon this basis, the paper concludes in a proposal for an integrated “macro-meso-micro” policy, placing at the epicenter the mechanism of the Institutes of Local Development and Innovation (ILDI). This policy aims to strengthen the spatially-located firms to reposition and readapt the “Stra.Tech.Man” potential they have and activate in their local business ecosystem (strategy-technology-management synthesis). |
| Keywords: | Competitiveness web; Entrepreneurship support policy; EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF); European integration; European public policy; ILDI; Macro-meso-micro; Post-COVID-19 era; Stra.Tech.Man approach |
| JEL: | L26 L53 O52 |
| Date: | 2021–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_005&r= |
| By: | Trejo-Pech, Carlos J.O.; White, Susan |
| Abstract: | Cal-Maine Foods Inc., the largest shell egg producer in the world, had historically operated with low debt levels relative to debt ratios in other industries and within agribusiness. In its third fiscal quarter report, issued by the end of March 2021, Cal-Maine reported no debt in its balance sheet, making this company one of the few debt-free publicly traded agribusinesses in the U.S. This case analyzes Cal-Maine’s capital structure, which represents a rare case for exploring and challenging the notion of optimal capital structure in theory and practice. Understanding the rationale behind a debt-free firm’s policy is puzzling because financial theory predicts that adding debt up to certain level −the optimal capital structure− creates economic value. According to surveyed chief financial officers, there is also evidence that practitioners use an optimal capital structure framework for financial management decisions. By applying a framework allowing for both qualitative and quantitative analysis, this case reviews the benefits and costs of debt in the capital structure, as applied to Cal-Maine. The case asks students to evaluate potential recapitalization policies in which Cal-Maine adds debt to its capital structure and use debt proceeds plus excess cash to repurchase shares at the prevailing price as of the end of May 2021. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313132&r= |
| By: | Steve J. Bickley; Benno Torgler |
| Abstract: | As artificial intelligence (AI) thrives and propagates through modern life, a key question to ask is how to include humans in future AI? Despite human- involvement at every stage of the pr oduction process from conception and design through to implementation, modern AI is still often criticized for its black box characteristics. Sometimes, we do not know what really goes on inside or how and why certain conclusions are met. Future AI will face many dilemmas and ethical issu es unforeseen by their creators beyond those commonly discussed (e.g., trolley probl ems and variants of it) and to which solutions cannot be hard-coded and are often still up for debate. Given the sensitivity of such social and ethical dilemmas and the implications of these for human society at large, when and if our AI make the wrong choice we need to understand how they got there in order to make corrections and prevent recurrences. This is particularly true in situations where human livelihoods are at stake (e.g., health, well-being, finance, law) or when major individual or household decisions are taken. Doing so requires opening up the black box of AI; especially as they act, interact, and adapt in a human world and how they interact with other AI in this world. In this article, we argue for the application of cognitive architectures for ethical AI. In particular, for their potential contributions to AI transparency, ex plainability, and accountability. We need to understand how our AI get to the solutions they do, and we should seek to do this on a deeper level in terms of the machine-equivalents of motivations, attitudes, values, and so on. The path to future AI is long and winding but it could arrive faster than we think. In order to harness the positive potential outcomes of AI for humans and society ( and avoid the negatives), we need to understand AI more fully in the first place and we expect this will simultaneously contribute towards greater understanding of their human counterparts also. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Ethics; Cognitive Architectures; Intelligent Systems; Ethical AI; Society |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2021-27&r= |
| By: | François Bousquet (ESC Pau); Valérie Barbat (Kedge BS - Kedge Business School) |
| Abstract: | This research concerns collective social capital and, more specifically, the operating process of engagement networks. We equate the action of these networks with passing rituals. These rituals allow a business executive to move from one values' framework to another, under the effect of ritualized actions (recurring, symbolic, temporalized and spatialized actions). This assimilation makes it possible to mobilize a proven corpus in anthropology and management. The case study of the "Entreprendre Network" underlines the importance of the "separation phase" at the beginning of the operating process and shows the emergence of a community belonging of the subjects in the "preliminary phase" .At odds with certain management studies, our study also shows that the liminary subject is not here in an ambiguous situation in-between two moral standards and that its reflexivity remains individual, without impact on the rules and practices of the network. From a methodological point of view, it suggests replacing the notion of proximity with that of spatiality. Finally, it establishes managerial recommendations on the collective conduct of individual transformations. |
| Abstract: | La recherche conduite concerne le capital social collectif et, plus spécifiquement, le processus de fonctionnement des réseaux d'engagement. Nous assimilons l'action de ces réseaux à des rituels de passage. Ceux-ci permettent à un dirigeant d'entreprise de passer d'un référentiel de valeur à un autre, sous l'effet d'actions ritualisées (actions récurrentes, symboliques, temporalisées et spatialisées). Cette assimilation permet de mobiliser un corpus éprouvé en anthropologie et en management. L'étude du cas du Réseau Entreprendre souligne l'importance de la phase de séparation en début de processus et montre l'émergence d'une appartenance communautaire des sujets en phase liminaire. En décalage avec certains travaux en management, l'étude montre également que le sujet liminaire n'est pas ici dans une situation ambigüe entre deux référentiels moraux et que sa réflexivité demeure individuelle, sans impact sur les règles et pratiques du réseau. D'un point de vue méthodologique, elle propose de substituer la notion de proximité à celle de spatialité. Enfin, elle établit des préconisations managériales sur la conduite collective de transformations individuelles. |
| Keywords: | Cooperation,Preliminary phase,Engagement networks,Rites of passage,Social capital,Capital social collectif,Coopération,Phase liminaire,Réseaux d'engagement,Rites de passage |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277481&r= |
| By: | Cédric Vernier (UMR ITAP - Information – Technologies – Analyse Environnementale – Procédés Agricoles - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Denis Loeillet (UR GECO - Fonctionnement écologique et gestion durable des agrosystèmes bananiers et ananas - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Rallou Thomopoulos (UMR IATE - Ingénierie des Agro-polymères et Technologies Émergentes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UM2 - Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM - Université de Montpellier - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Catherine Macombe (UMR ITAP - Information – Technologies – Analyse Environnementale – Procédés Agricoles - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | A major challenge of Sustainable Development Goal 12 "Responsible Consumption and Production" is to reduce food losses along production and supply chains. This is particularly critical for fresh food products, due to their perishable and fragile nature, which makes the coordination of the actors all the more crucial to avoid wastes and losses. The rise of new technologies, referred to as "Industry 4.0" powered by the internet of things, big data analytics and artificial intelligence, could bring new solutions to meet these needs. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) allow for frequent exchanges of huge amounts of information between actors in the agrofood chains to coordinate their activities. The aim of the chapter is to provide a state-of-the-art analysis on ICTs used in agrofood supply chains, with a special focus on the case of fresh fruits and vegetables, to analyze the potential and weaknesses which exist in different forms of supply chains for ICTs becoming a "resource" (precious, rare, non-imitable, and nonsubstitutable) prospect and to suggest promising ICTs in this context. |
| Keywords: | food sustainability,food supply chain,innovation in food,food waste and SDGs,ICTs,objectifs de développement durable |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03280502&r= |
| By: | Lukas Menkhoff; Carsten Schröder |
| Abstract: | We present evidence from a repeated survey on risky asset holdings carried out on a representative sample of the German population six times between April and June 2020. Given the size of the Covid-19 shock, we find little evidence of portfolio rebalancing in April 2020. In May, however, individual investors started buying heavily, fueling market recovery. The cross-section shows large differences as young, educated, high income, and risk tolerant investors are net buyers throughout and, thus, benefit from the stock market recovery. Older individuals, parents of young children, and individuals affected by adverse liquidity shocks from Covid-19 are net sellers. Given the high risk of illness, older people are hit by dual blows to both health and finances. |
| Keywords: | Risky assets, distributional effects, individual investment behavior, health and income shocks, expected adverse shocks |
| JEL: | D31 G50 H31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1962&r= |
| By: | Xuan, Ngo Thanh; Linh, Hoai; , Khuc The Anh; Anh, Nguyen Khoa Duc |
| Abstract: | There are many types of risks related to banking operations such as credit risk, interest risk, operational risk. Problems related to moral hazard have led to considerable setbacks for the economy in general and banking system in particular. Besides, moral hazard is an economic and financial terminology and is used to denote the risk generated from the deterioration in ethical conduct. Hence, authors aim at reviewing theoretical framework for determinants impacting moral hazard in banks. |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rq463&r= |
| By: | Ferreiros Amura, Pedro Genaro |
| Abstract: | La presente investigación analiza el cambio tecnológico del sector triguero núcleo del sudeste bonaerense argentino y su impacto sobre los niveles de productividad para los años comprendidos entre 2002/03 y 2018/19. A tal fin, se utilizó una metodología de números índices de Paasche y Laspeyres para calcular y determinar cambios tecnológicos en el sistema de producción triguero. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que en el período analizado hubo un retroceso tecnológico, cambiando métodos productivos con nivel tecnológico alto por métodos con bajo nivel. Estas decisiones están relacionadas con el esquema de incentivos imperante en el período analizado. |
| Keywords: | Cambio Tecnológico; Números Indices; Productividad; Trigo; |
| Date: | 2020–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3499&r= |
| By: | naryono, endang (STIE PASIM SUKABUMI) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to determine the working capital turnover of PT Gudang Garam, the development of the company's performance at PT Gudang Garam, and to determine the effect of working capital turnover on the company's performance at PT Gudang Garam, Tbk. The research method used is the ex-post facto method. This study uses primary data and secondary data obtained from financial and non-financial reports from PT Gudang Garam. To test the hypothesis, simple regression was used. Based on the results of the analysis, it shows that there is a positive influence between working capital turnover at PT Gudang Garam. The level of closeness of the relationship (correlation) of the two variables is quite strong, namely r = 0.752 with a correlation coefficient value of r > 0. The level of influence achieved is 56.55%, and the remaining 43.45% is influenced by other factors. Meanwhile, by testing the hypothesis by using the t-test, the t-count value = 5.947 and the t-table value = 0.997. Based on the t-count value, the T-count value is greater than T-table H0 is in the rejection area. The results of simple linear regression analysis that every 1X (times) increase in working capital turnover, the company's performance will increase by 7.462%. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8bq6v&r= |
| By: | Alejandra Bellatin; Gabriela Galassi |
| Keywords: | Digital technologies have helped maintain economic activity while allowing people to remain physically distant throughout the COVID-19 crisis. This note shows that the number of online postings for jobs related to the production of digital technologies in Canada decreased less than the number for other jobs and recovered more quickly after lockdowns were lifted. |
| JEL: | E24 J2 J23 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-18&r= |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha (World Bank); El Lahga, Abdel Rahmen (University of Tunis); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Tunisia's reforms and agile shift to a more democratic political system since a major political revolution in 2011 has not prevented continued and rising citizen discontent. While this paper does not directly analyze this vexing problem, it assesses welfare indicators and labor markets nationally, regionally, and across different population groups—such as women and youth—over the last two decades. The paper shows that while Tunisia has significantly reduced poverty between 2000 and 2019, the profile of the poor has not changed much: poverty remains concentrated in rural and western regions, mainly among households with younger men without education and headed by someone working in low-productivity sectors such as agriculture and construction. Moreover, the share of the vulnerable Tunisian population at risk of falling into poverty is quite large, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, even though poverty had been declining over the past two decades. Non-monetary dimensions of well-being, such as access to basic services, are also unevenly distributed across regions and population groups. COVID-19 has further aggravated these disparities and is reversing Tunisia's poverty reduction gains. The paper sheds light into the issues that require policy attention on poverty. |
| Keywords: | poverty, inequality, Tunisia |
| JEL: | J31 F16 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14597&r= |
| By: | Marcelo Randolfo da Costa Januário (LCA Consultores); Mauro Sayar Ferreira (UFMG) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the presence of the J-curve and the Marshall-Lerner condition after recognizing that terms of trade respond endogenously to global demand and supply shocks, which we identify from a structural VAR estimated with Bayesian techniques for the Brazilian economy, a small open economy with a strong commodity sector. The J-curve is not observed for total trade, capital goods, or consumption goods, but it is verified for fuel, which Brazil exports and imports. The Marshall-Lerner condition is mostly verified, but the volume exported tends not to behave as expected considering its relation to terms of trade, since global income effect plays a major role for determining the quantum exported. The volume imported reacts as expected based on its relation to terms of trade and domestic GDP, with the last appearing to play the most prominent role. The expansion in the exported volume of capital and consumption goods following an improvement in terms of trade runs against the presence of the Dutch disease, at least in the business cycle frequency. |
| Keywords: | J-curve; Marshall-Lerner condition; terms of trade; global shocks; SVAR |
| JEL: | F14 F41 F62 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td635&r= |
| By: | Volckart, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Scholars agree that a core feature of the political style of the Holy Roman Empire was the focus on consensus, without which policies at the level of the Empire were impossible. The present article demonstrates that the consensus on which decisions of the imperial estates was based tended to be superficial and was often in danger of breaking down. This was because the diet’s open and sequential voting procedure allowed the bandwagon effect to distort outcomes. An analysis of the votes cast in the princes’ college of the diet of 1555 shows that low-status members of the college regularly imitated the decisions of high-status voters. Reforming the system would have required accepting that the members of the college were equals – an idea no one was prepared to countenance. Hence, superficial and transitory agreements remained a systematic feature of politics at the level of the Empire. |
| Keywords: | bandwagon effect; voting; early modern parliamentarism; Holy Roman Empire |
| JEL: | H11 N43 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111613&r= |
| By: | Billur Aksoy (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute); Ian Chadd (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute); Boon Han Koh (University of East Anglia) |
| Abstract: | We study discrimination in prosocial domains against sexual minorities using a sharing (dictator) game in an online experiment, where these individuals have the opportunity to signal their identity. We find that political affiliations matter: Republican heterosexual individuals are less generous to others who are perceived to be sexual minorities, while their Democratic counterparts are slightly more generous. This is robust to alternative specifications and cannot be explained by perceptions about the recipient’s political leaning. Moreover, women, but not men, are less likely to signal their sexual minority status when they are aware of the potential payoff implications of their decisions. |
| Keywords: | taste-based discrimination, identity, LGBTQ+, political preferences, gender. |
| JEL: | C90 D90 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2021-08&r= |
| By: | Pal, Sarmistha (University of Surrey); Chowdhury, Prabal Roy (Indian Statistical Institute); Saher, Zoya (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of legislated land ceiling size on capital investment and industrialisation in the Indian states. India's land ceiling legislations of 1960s and 1970s imposed a ceiling on maximum land holdings and redistributed above-ceiling lands. These ceiling legislations, effectively implemented or not, had increased land fragmentation and increased transactions costs of acquiring land for both strategic and non-strategic reasons. States with smaller ceiling size are thus likely to have (i) lower capital investment; (ii) less factories and lower industrialisation too. Ceteris paribus, estimates of both relative (post-1971 ceiling legislations relative to pre-1971 ones) and aggregate effects of legislated ceiling size lend support to these hypotheses, after eliminating competing explanations. These results offer insights about how to reduce transactions costs of land acquisition, policies that we claim are also applicable beyond India. |
| Keywords: | land reform, land acquisition, land ceiling size, transaction costs of land acquisition, investment in capital, industrialisation, India |
| JEL: | H70 K11 L38 O14 Q15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14624&r= |
| By: | Nagara, Patria; , yolanda |
| Abstract: | The indicators of success in macro development can be measured from the economic growth, which is reflected in changes in the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The factors which affect the economic growth are very complex. This study analyzes the economic growth and the factors that affect Sumatra island. The data used is panel data with descriptive analysis techniques and multiple linear regression. Based on the research results: Education, economic openness, road infrastructure, and investment have a positive and significant effect on economic growth and poverty and unemployment have a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Besides, the results of panel data explained that the openness of the economy to economic growth is very low, while the highest is education. |
| Date: | 2020–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rfcuj&r= |
| By: | Colmer, Jonathan (University of Virginia); Lin, Dajun (American Institutes for Research); Liu, Siying (Amazon); Shimshack, Jay (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | Conventional wisdom suggests that marginal damages from particulate matter pollution are high in less-developed countries because they are highly polluted. Using administrative data on the universe of births and deaths, we explore birthweight and mortality effects of gestational particulate matter exposure in high-pollution yet high-income Hong Kong. The marginal effects of particulates on birthweight are large but we fail to detect an effect on neonatal mortality. We interpret our stark mortality results in a comparative analysis of pollution-mortality relationships across studies. We provide early evidence that marginal mortality damages from pollution are high in less-developed countries because they are less developed, not because they are more polluted. |
| Keywords: | particulate matter, early childhood, comparative analysis |
| JEL: | Q53 I15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14591&r= |
| By: | Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric & Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Taofeek O. Ayinde (Department of Economics, Fountain University, Osogbo, Nigeria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, 6708 Pine Street, Omaha, NE 68182, USA) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we offer a global perspective to the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic using the multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive Model of Chudik et al. (2020) with focus on real equity prices and real exchange rates. We document, with the generalized impulse responses that the impact of the pandemic on real equity prices is generally negative across the country groupings and the highest negative impact recorded in 2020Q2. The biggest losers among the advanced countries are the advanced Asia Pacific stock markets, while the overall losers are the emerging countries which are compensated with domestic currency appreciation. Our results appear to support the relative policy effectiveness in the emerging economies where the counterfactual analysis shows that the equity markets exhibit reversal to pre-pandemic equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | Threshold-GVAR, financial markets, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C33 G15 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202154&r= |
| By: | Shahram Heydari; Garyfallos Konstantinoudis; Abdul Wahid Behsoodi |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has been influencing travel behaviour in many urban areas around the world since the beginning of 2020. As a consequence, bike-sharing schemes have been affected partly due to the change in travel demand and behaviour as well as a shift from public transit. This study estimates the varying effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the London bike-sharing system (Santander Cycles) over the period March-December 2020. We employed a Bayesian second-order random walk time-series model to account for temporal correlation in the data. We compared the observed number of cycle hires and hire time with their respective counterfactuals (what would have been if the pandemic had not happened) to estimate the magnitude of the change caused by the pandemic. The results indicated that following a reduction in cycle hires in March and April 2020, the demand rebounded from May 2020, remaining in the expected range of what would have been if the pandemic had not occurred. This could indicate the resiliency of Santander Cycles. With respect to hire time, an important increase occurred in April, May, and June 2020, indicating that bikes were hired for longer trips, perhaps partly due to a shift from public transit. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11589&r= |
| By: | Ji, Yueting; Huang, Qianyao; Liu, Haiyang; Phillips, Caleb |
| Abstract: | Overweight employees are viewed as lazy, slow, inactive, and even incapable. Even if such attributes are false, this perspective can seriously undermine others' evaluation of their work performance. The current study explores a broader phenomenon of weight bias that has an effect on weight change. In a longitudinal study with a time lag of 6 months, we surveyed 226 supervisor-employee dyads. We found supervisor perceptions of employee weight change notably altered their evaluation of the employee performance from Time 1, especially following low vs. high Time-1 performance evaluation. Meanwhile, the moderating effects among different levels of supervisor anti-fat bias functioned as boundary conditions for such performance evaluation alteration. In particular, the interaction between the Time-1 performance evaluation and the impact of supervisor perception of employee weight change on the Time-2 performance evaluation was significant only if supervisors held a stronger anti-fat bias. |
| Keywords: | anti-fat bias; performance evaluation; phase-shifting perspective; weight bias; weight change |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111589&r= |
| By: | Oliver Kalsbach (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Sebastian Rausch (ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University, Germany, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA) |
| Abstract: | Economists tend to view a uniform emissions price as the most cost-effective approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper offers a different view, focusing on economies where society values the well-being of future generations more than private actors. Employing analytical and numerical general equilibrium models, we show that a uniform carbon price is efficient only under restrictive assumptions about technology homogeneity and intertemporal decision-making. Non-uniform pricing spurs capital accumulation and benefits future generations. Depending on sectoral heterogeneity in the substitutability between capital and energy inputs, we find that optimal carbon prices differ widely across sectors and yield substantial welfare gains relative to uniform pricing. |
| Keywords: | Sectoral Carbon Pricing, Differentiated Carbon Taxes, Climate Policy, Social Discounting |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 Q43 H23 C61 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-360&r= |
| By: | Advani, Arun (University of Warwick, CAGE, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and the LSE International Inequalities Institute (III)); Hughson, Helen (London School of Economics III); Tarrant, Hannah (London School of Economics III) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we model the revenue that could be raised from an annual and a one-off wealth tax of the design recommended by Advani, Chamberlain and Summers (2020b). We examine the distributional effects of the tax, both in terms of wealth and other characteristics. We also estimate the share of taxpayers who would face liquidity constraints in meeting their tax liability. We find that an annual wealth tax charging 0.17% on wealth above £500,000 could generate £10 billion in revenue, before administrative costs. Alternatively, a one-off tax charging 4.8% (effectively 0.95% per year, paid over a five-year period) on wealth above the same threshold, would generate £250 billion in revenue. To put our revenue estimates into context, we present revenue estimates and costings for some commonly-proposed reforms to the existing set of taxes on capital. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1369&r= |
| By: | Muckenhuber, Mattias; Rehm, Miriam; Schnetzer, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We investigate how previous generations of migrants and their children integrated into Austrian society, as measured by their wealth ownership. Using data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS), we document a positive average migrant wealth gap between migrant and native households. However, the raw gap is almost negligible for second generation migrant households, whereas it rises across the unconditional net wealth distribution for first generation migrant households and peaks at more than e140,000 around the 75th percentile. Decomposing the partial effects of a set of covariates using RIF regressions suggests that the lack of inheritances and the presence of children have the highest explanatory power for the migrant wealth gap of first generation migrant household. For second generation migrant households, inheritances have the highest impact, but they contribute negatively towards the explanation of the migrant wealth gap. In general, the covariates in our analysis can explain only a small part of the migrant wealth gap. Given the similarity of native and second generation migrant households, we cannot reject the hypothesis that migrants in the past integrated into Austrian society by acquiring comparable wealth levels. |
| Keywords: | Migration,Wealth Distribution,Wealth Gap,Unconditional Quantile Regression |
| JEL: | C31 D31 F22 G51 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:15&r= |
| By: | Gonzalez, Felipe (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Prem, Mounu |
| Abstract: | Chile has experienced more than thirty years of democracy at the shadow of the seventeen-year dictatorship led by Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990). This chapter provides an overview of the dictatorial legacies with an emphasis on the distribution of economic and political power, as viewed from the most recent literature in economics. We also describe the waves of discontent which have attempted to suppress the most important legacies during the past twenty years. We end with a discussion of the current path of institutional change that could put Pinochet’s legacy to an end. |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:v5yjf&r= |
| By: | Rahmat, Al Fauzi |
| Abstract: | During 2000-2018 various disease outbreaks (extraordinary occurrences) continued to occur in Indonesia. Its endemic disease outbreak has fluctuated with other endemic, both infectious and non-communicable diseases. This epidemic's vulnerability gives concern for the government to try to deal with various outbreaks that hit Indonesian citizens. This paper aims to review and analyze frequent outbreaks and the extent of the Indonesian government's in tackling disease outbreaks – including policies and its health resources. By analyzing the successes and failures of policies that have occurred, our findings conclude that adequate governance is needed in dealing with disease outbreaks –including Diarrhea, DFH, and Measles. Therefore, the government's key concern is the need for new policies alternative in dealing with disease outbreaks (in cases; Diarrhea, DFH, and Measles), health budget ability, equitable development of health facilities, and equal medical distribution personnel. |
| Date: | 2021–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zqb69&r= |
| By: | Syngjoo Choi; Byung-Yeon Kim; Jungmin Lee; Sokbae Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the development of competitiveness by comparing three Korean groups in South Korea, born and raised in three countries with distinct institutional environments: South Korea, North Korea, and China. Results based on laboratory experiments show that North Korean refugees are significantly less competitive than South Koreans or Korean-Chinese immigrants. Furthermore, analyses through the lens of a choice model with probability weighting suggest that lower cognitive ability may be associated with lower levels of expected performance, more pessimistic subject beliefs and greater aversion to competition. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.08097&r= |
| By: | Hashibul Hassan (Department of Economics, Monash University, Australia); Asad Islam (Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability (CDES) and Department of Economics, Monash University); Abu Siddique (Economics Group, Technical University of Munich); Liang Choon Wang (Department of Economics, Monash University, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Prolonged school closures due to political unrests, teacher strikes, natural disasters, and public health crises can be detrimental to student learning in developing countries. Using a randomized controlled experiment in 200 Bangladeshi villages, we evaluate the impact of over-the-phone mentoring and homeschooling support delivered by volunteers on the learning outcomes of primary school children during school closures caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The telementoring program improved the learning outcomes of treated children by 0.75 SD and increased homeschooling involvement of treated mothers by 0.64 SD. The impacts on learning are driven primarily by the direct mentoring of children and to some extent also by the increased homeschooling involvement of mothers. Academically weaker children and households from relatively lower socioeconomic backgrounds benefitted the most from telementoring. These findings suggest that learning crises in low-resource settings can be addressed by simple and very low-cost technology solutions. |
| Keywords: | Telementoring, homeschooling, school closure, primary education, randomized experiment, rural areas. |
| JEL: | C93 I21 I24 P46 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:13&r= |
| By: | Adimora, Katia |
| Abstract: | This article deploys descriptive case study to explore Mexican immigration to the US in the first 100 days of Joe Biden’s presidency. Firstly, the expanding voting size of Latino/Mexican community in the US is being recognised, and consequently, its influence on shaping immigration laws. Secondly, the immigration documents are being analysed to study their implications for Mexican immigration. In some cases, the contrast between Trump’s and Biden’s immigration circumstances are being highlighted. Even though immigration changes have been introduced formally, most of their practical applications are yet to be seen. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7tn8v&r= |
| By: | Stamm, Andreas; Strupat, Christoph; Hornidge, Anna-Katharina |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing vaccination process calls for decisive, internationally coordinated and forward-looking action. We propose short-, medium- and long-term actions and emphasise that the political pressure for action should not only focus on short-term management, but on building long-term structures that are crucial to prepare for future epidemics or pandemics. Four key challenges need to be addressed in order to achieve global control of COVID-19 by using vaccines. First, vaccines need to be produced at scale; second, they should be priced affordably; third, they have to be allocated globally so that they are available where needed; and fourth, they have to be deployed and utilised in local communities. Challenges in production are producing some of the main bottlenecks, but the others - in particular vaccine scepticism and utilisation - need to be considered early enough to enable smooth global vaccination campaigns. Addressing the four key challenges, we recommend the following short, medium- and long-term actions. In the short term, we advise accelerating global vaccination efforts by scaling up financial support for the COVAX initiative. In the medium term, we suggest establishing regional production centres in priority countries, providing the necessary intellectual property through voluntary patent pools and fostering information campaigns and civil society participation to increase vaccination willingness and utilisation. In the long term, we recommend establishing Global Pandemic Centres of Excellence in all world regions - analogous to the CGIAR system in the agricultural sector - that are responsible for medical research, vaccine production, distribution and delivery. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:192021&r= |
| By: | Olivier Guillot; Antoine Parent |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the issue of the executions of French soldiers during the WW1 in a quantitative perspective. The database of French Ministry of Defense “Shot in the First World War†is exploited here for the first time to provide a complete description of the statistical portrait of the soldiers who were sentenced to death by a council of war or summarily executed. This database provides individual characteristics (skills, occupations), military variables (corps, rank) to which we have added contextual variables related to living conditions, weather conditions, illiteracy rates, dummies for regional language, county’s level of alcohol consumption, county’s voters abstention rate. Specifically, we investigate whether the variations in the number of executions over time were related to the intensity of engagements or to pacifist motives or other political considerations, as suggested in the literature. Two main findings emerge from our research: conversely to conventional wisdom, the soldiers executed in 1917, the year of the mutinies, did not differ from the rest of the sample. If statistical differences exist between years, the difference refers to 1914, not 1917. Our analysis leads to nuance the pacifist explanation. We give evidence that the conditions of survival on the front and the intensity of fights were the two main drivers of executions. |
| Keywords: | World War I, Defense economics, Conflict, Military history |
| JEL: | N44 K14 K42 D74 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:097&r= |
| By: | Gill Wyness (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, University College London) |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic and resulting disruption to schooling led to the Government cancelling GCSE and A level exams in 2020 and 2021, with 2022's exams also likely to be disrupted. The cancellation of GCSEs, in particular, has renewed debate around the value of high-stakes testing, and prompted some politicians, practitioners and commentators to call for their permanent abolition. The main objections to GCSE exams typically centre around two issues: 1) that high-stakes testing of this nature leads to narrowing of the curriculum with teachers having to "teach to the test" rather than provide a holistic learning experience, and 2) that high-stakes testing creates excessive stress for teenagers. Former Prime Minister John Major recently called for the abolition of GCSEs for these reasons, stating that "I have come to dislike these examinations due to the degree of stress and strain they impose upon students. Without the examinations, it would surely be possible to offer pupils a wider syllabus, providing a more rounded education." |
| Keywords: | assessment; age 16; high-stakes testing; examinations; wellbeing; coursework |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeob:14&r= |
| By: | Actis Di Pasquale, Eugenio; Iglesias-Onofrio, Marcela; Pérez de Guzmán, Sofía; Viego, Valentina |
| Abstract: | El objetivo de este artículo es analizar, desde una perspectiva de género, la percepción y la valoración del teletrabajo durante la pandemia por parte de mujeres y hombres residentes en varios países iberoamericanos. Este estudio tiene como base la información recogida en la Encuesta Iberoamericana sobre Rutinas Laborales y Cotidianas en tiempos de COVID-19 que llevó a cabo la Red Iberoamericana de Investigación sobre Trabajo, Género y Vida Cotidiana (TRAGEVIC) durante los meses de abril y mayo de 2020. Se concluye que en todos los países implicados en el estudio, con pocas diferencias significativas, la introducción masiva del teletrabajo debido a la crisis de la COVID-19 ha tendido a acentuar las desigualdades de género que ya existían previamente, tanto en el ámbito laboral como en la familia. |
| Keywords: | Teletrabajo; Brecha de Género; Aislamiento Social; COVID-19; |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3513&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Minh-Hoang |
| Abstract: | Inspired by the semiconducting principle, I propose two ultimate goals to counter climate change and heal the environment as substitutes for the carbon neutrality objective. The first ultimate goal is to eliminate the negative anthropogenic impacts (or human-made eco-deficits) on nature. The second ultimate goal is to heal the environment or increase the human-made eco-surplus. Here, the NEV growth has to be considered with equivalent priority as economic growth, or even more in certain circumstances. |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dkcmt&r= |
| By: | Hammond, Fernando |
| Abstract: | Hace medio siglo que en el universo de las empresas existe una divisoria de aguas entre aquellas que se responsabilizan por los problemas de las comunidades donde operan y aquellas que no. En las ciencias sociales mucho se ha discutido sobre la conveniencia de que las empresas dediquen recursos a cuestiones que exceden a sus negocios. No obstante, ya sea por vocación, interés, moda -o la razón que sea- existen empresarios que además de buscar un beneficio económico se preocupan por ayudar a sus comunidades ¿Qué sucede en Mar del Plata?, ¿existen empresarios con responsabilidad social?, ¿cómo se organizan? Estas son algunas de las preguntas que guían el trabajo que venimos desarrollando un grupo de investigadores de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMDP). |
| Keywords: | Responsabilidad Social; Empresas; |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3478&r= |
| By: | Crescenzi, Riccardo; De Filippis, Fabrizio; Giua, Mara; Vaquero Pineiro, Cristina |
| Abstract: | Can Geographical Indications (GIs) promote local economic development in rural areas? This paper explores the impact of GIs that identify and endorse agri-food products which are strictly embedded within the territory from which they originate. Examining Italian wine protected by GIs through an innovative dataset and by means of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences models make it possible to compare the local economic development trajectories of rural municipalities afforded GIs with the correspondent dynamics of a counterfactual group of similar municipalities without GI status since 1951. Rural municipalities with GIs experience population growth and economic reorganization towards non-farming sectors, which frequently involve higher value-added activities. |
| Keywords: | geographical Indications;; rural development; EU policies; local development; propensity score matching; difference in differences; 639633-MASSIVE-ERC-2014-STG); H2020 project BATModel; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | O18 Q18 R10 |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110767&r= |
| By: | Georges Prat (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Remzi Uctum (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We propose a two-horizon interest rate term structure model where the maturity of the riskless rate is the one of the debt security whose duration equals investor's desired horizon. Our framework thus relaxes the usual assumptions of the literature that the riskless rate is unchangingly the short period rate. A representative investor compares at each of the 3and the 6-month horizons the risk premium offered by the market and the one they require to take a risky position, the latter premium being determined by the portfolio choice theory. Due to market frictions, the deviation between the offered and required risk premium evolves according to a mean-reverting process. Using 3-month ahead survey-based expectations of the US 3-month Treasury Bill rate, we employ Kalman filtering to estimate the market risk premium where the preference parameter of investors for alternative horizons is time-varying. We find that the market comprises both a group of agents with 3-month preferred horizon and a group of agents with 6-month preferred horizon with a weigh of two-thirds for the first group. |
| Keywords: | interest rates,term structure,risk premium |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319099&r= |
| By: | Philippe Bacchetta; Rachel Cordonier; Ouarda Merrouche |
| Abstract: | An unintended consequence of loose US monetary policy is the increase in currency risk exposure abroad. Using firm-level data on corporate bond issuances in 17 emerging market economies (EME) between 2003 and 2015, we find that EME companies are more likely to issue bonds in foreign currency when US interest rates are low. This increase occurs across the board, including for firms more vulnerable to foreign exchange exposure, and is particularly strong for bonds issued in local markets. Interestingly, capital controls on bond inflows significantly decrease the likelihood of issuing in foreign currency and can even eliminate the adverse impact of low US interest rates. In contrast, macroprudential foreign exchange regulations tend to increase foreign currency issuances of non-financial corporates, although this effect can be significantly reduced using capital controls. |
| Keywords: | Foreign currency, corporate bonds, emerging markets, capital controls, currency risk |
| JEL: | G21 G30 E44 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2021-11&r= |
| By: | Conti, Gabriella (University College London); Pizzo, Elena (University College London); Morris, Stephen (University of Cambridge); Melnychuk, Mariya (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Child maltreatment is a major public health problem with significant consequences for individual victims and for society. In this paper we quantify for the first time the economic costs of fatal and non-fatal child maltreatment in the UK in relation to several short-, medium- and long-term outcomes ranging from physical and mental health problems, to labour market outcomes and welfare use. We combine novel regression analysis of rich data from the National Child Development Study and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing with secondary evidence to produce an incidence-based estimate of the lifetime costs of child maltreatment from a societal perspective. The discounted average lifetime incidence cost of non-fatal child maltreatment by a primary caregiver is estimated at £89,390 (95% uncertainty interval £44,896 to £145,508); the largest contributors to this are costs from social care, short-term health and long-term labour market outcomes. The discounted lifetime cost per death from child maltreatment is estimated at £940,758, comprising health care and lost productivity costs. Our estimates provide the first comprehensive benchmark to quantify the costs of child maltreatment in the UK and the benefits of interventions aimed at reducing or preventing it. |
| Keywords: | child maltreatment, incidence-based approach, lifetime costs, health care costs, productivity losses, sensitivity analysis |
| JEL: | I18 J17 D61 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14612&r= |
| By: | Philip C. Solimine (Department of Economics and Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University); R. Mark Isaac (Department of Economics, Florida State University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we conduct a market experiment with the opportunity for sellers to send a nonbinding advertisement of their product quality. We examine the effects of including a reputation aggregation system for sellers in these markets. In order to closely match the setting of real-life markets, we conduct a laboratory experiment designed to emulate an online marketplace. In some sessions, we prompt buyers to respond to their purchases with a canonical "five-star" rating, and display the average rating to buyers in each round. We find substantial efficiency gains from the addition of the ratings system, but not enough to obtain fully efficient market outcomes. These efficiency gains come primarily through a decrease in false advertising behavior by the sellers, as they compete to build reputations. We structurally examine the formation of reputations by the sellers (with and without ratings) and the effect of these reputations on the decisions of buyers and sellers in the market. Using a bipartite network of transaction data, we will quantify the effects of ratings in promoting trust and supporting diverse, connected, and high quality markets. |
| Keywords: | Product Quality, Seller Reputation, Ratings, Experimental Market Design, Plat- forms, Adverse Selection |
| JEL: | L1 L2 D4 D8 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsu:wpaper:wp2021_08_01&r= |
| By: | Giancarlo Corsetti; Anna Lipínska; Giovanni Lombardo |
| Abstract: | Crises and tail events have asymmetric effects across borders, raising the value of arrangements improving insurance of macroeconomic risk. Using a two-country DSGE model, we provide an analytical and quantitative analysis of the channels through which countries gain from sharing (tail) risk. Riskier countries gain in smoother consumption but lose in relative wealth and average consumption. Safer countries benefit from higher wealth and better average terms of trade. Calibrated using the empirical distribution of moments of GDP-growth across countries, the model suggests significant quantitative effects. We offer an algorithm for the correct solution of the equilibrium using DSGE models under complete markets, at higher order of approximation. |
| Keywords: | international risk sharing, asymmetry, fat tails, welfare |
| JEL: | F15 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:958&r= |
| By: | Khouiled, Brahim; Sellami, Ahmed; Saheb, Oualid |
| Abstract: | This paper answers the problem of the existence of an inflation rate that stimulates economic growth in Algeria during the period 2000:1-2018:2. We use the TAR model with the brutal transition. The results showed that the rate of inflation stimulating economic growth in Algeria is between 1.688-4.08% annually, a threshold close to that of industrial countries. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Economic Growth; Threshold Models; تضخم ; نمو اقتصادي ; نماذج العتبة |
| JEL: | E31 O49 |
| Date: | 2019–12–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109024&r= |
| By: | Xu, Yongsheng; Yoshihara, Naoki |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses issues of axiomatic bargaining problems over opportunity assignments. The fair arbitrator uses the principle of "equal opportunity" for all players to make the recommendation on resource allocations. A framework in such a context is developed and the egalitarian solution to standard bargaining problems is reformulated and axiomatically characterized. |
| Keywords: | Opportunity sets, bargaining over opportunity assignments, egalitarian solution |
| JEL: | C71 C78 D60 D63 D70 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:725&r= |
| By: | Anuradha Singh |
| Abstract: | Using three rounds of NSS datasets, the present paper attempts to understand the relationship between income inequality and intergenerational income mobility (IGIM) by segregating generations into social and income classes. The originality of the paper lies in assessing the IGIM using different approaches, which we expect to contribute to the existing literature. We conclude that the country has low-income mobility and high inequality which is no longer associated with a particular social class in India. Also, both may have a negative or positive relationship, hence needs to be studied at a regional level. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12702&r= |
| By: | Dirk Bergemann (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Edmund Yeh (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Northeastern University); Jinkun Zhang (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Northeastern University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze nonlinear pricing with finite information. We consider a multi-product environment where each buyer has preferences over a d-dimensional variety of goods. The seller is limited to offering a finite number n of d-dimensional choices. The limited menu reflects a finite communication capacity between the buyer and seller. We identify necessary conditions that the optimal finite menu must satisfy, for either the socially efficient or the revenue-maximizing mechanism. These conditions require that information be bundled, or "quantized," optimally. We introduce vector quantization and establish that the losses due to finite menus converge to zero at a rate of 1/n^2/^d. In the canonical model with one-dimensional products and preferences, this establishes that the loss resulting from using the n-item menu converges to zero at a rate proportional to 1/n^2. |
| Keywords: | Mechanism Design, Nonlinear Pricing, Multi-Dimension, Multi-Product, Private Information, Limited Information, Quantization, Information Theory |
| JEL: | D82 D83 D86 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2297&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/155&r= |
| By: | Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Sydney); Dahmann, Sarah C. (University of Melbourne); Kamhöfer, Daniel A. (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE)); Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah (Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf) |
| Abstract: | We propose a broadly applicable empirical approach to classify individuals as time-consistent versus naïve or sophisticated regarding their self-control limitations. Operationalizing our approach based on nationally representative data reveals that self-control problems are pervasive and that most people are at least partly aware of their limited self-control. Compared to naïfs, sophisticates have higher IQs, better educated parents, and are more likely to take up commitment devices. Accounting for both the level and awareness of self-control limitations has predictive power beyond one-dimensional notions of self-control that neglect awareness. Importantly, sophistication fully compensates for self-control problems when choices involve immediate costs and later benefits. Raising people's awareness of their own self-control limitations may thus assist them in overcoming any adverse consequences. |
| Keywords: | self-control, sophistication, naïveté, commitment devices, present bias |
| JEL: | D91 D01 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14609&r= |
| By: | Cutuli, Romina |
| Abstract: | En este artículo se abordarán las representaciones en torno al rol de las mujeres gestantes a través de las representaciones discursivas y visuales construidas en medios de comunicación masiva sobre tres casos de personas subrogantes "famosas". Se observarán las alusiones y las elusiones del carácter mercantil o del carácter afectivo de la tríada vincular establecida en la relación de subrogación: persona subrogante, mujer subrogada, niño/a nacido de la gestación. El deseo se efectiviza como derecho a través del mercado, lo que implica una acción de consumo, con las desigualdades interseccionales que ella implica. Al mismo tiempo, al menos en dos de los tres casos abordados, las personas subrogantes han construido una imagen de sus hijos públicamente exhibida en medios de comunicación y redes sociales que, a la postre, representa también una forma de mercantilización. Se propone pensar el vínculo en torno a la subrogación a partir de la tensión impuesta a las mujeres entre lo afectivo y lo económico como, en términos de Zelizer, "esferas separadas", y la perpetuación de este divorcio conceptual como un mecanismo de refuerzo de desigualdades interseccionales. |
| Keywords: | Gestación Subrogada; Representaciones; |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3539&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | labor market scarring risk; EE job creation; EE percent; yoy job creation; risks of labor market; B. aggregate behavior; Employment; Wages; Labor markets; Job destruction; Unemployment rate; Baltics |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/161&r= |
| By: | Campigotto, Nicola; Rapallini, Chiara; Rustichini, Aldo |
| Abstract: | Academic consensus about normative prescriptions on the ethnic and cultural composition of societies has been shifting in recent decades. It has evolved from what seemed desirable but was acknowledged to be unrealistic (the noble idea of a melting pot), to what is realistic because it has already happened, but might be undesirable in the long run: the multicultural diaspora. Plural societies, an unintended consequence of multiculturalism, lurk in the background. Thus scholars of social and economic questions, as well as societies, face a threehorned dilemma. We throw some light on the dilemma by examining school friendship networks in five European countries with recent immigration. Our results highlight the force of elective affinities in overcoming differences, but they also point to the countervailing forces of elective discordance that are currently driving increasing division. |
| Keywords: | Friendship,Homophily,Immigration,Networks,Social cohesion |
| JEL: | D85 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:910&r= |
| By: | Tong, Antonia |
| Abstract: | Compared to a Chinese investor, the U.S. investors invest in Fin-Tech evergreen fund is not a strange financial activity. In the fast-developing of different technology nowadays, the US. Fin-Tech evergreen investors are always attempting to catch the wave of the opportunity to invest in new financial technology companies that will almost like investing in Apple, Microsoft, SpaceX, or Teslar twenty years ago. This article intends to introduce, compare, and analyst the fin-tech evergreen development in both the USA and China. Fin-Tech Evergreen financing is a concept used to describe the gradual infusion of funds into a fin-tech company. It is feasible to organize for the receipt of venture capital money in advance. Nevertheless, with FinTech's evergreen investment, investors provide cash in incremental payments throughout the company's or product's development phase. It is a perpetual fund architecture with no set end date. It frequently provides investors with the ability to exit their commitment and allows the fund manager to acquire additional cash. Investors are allowed to reinvest cash generated by realized returns, thus the term "evergreen." With a thorough explanation of the two most powerful economic powers' investment direction of the evergreen fund, the general public will learn more about the evergreen fund's future and destiny. |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ybfr6&r= |
| By: | Raphael Flepp (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence that corporate boards violate the informativeness principle in their forced CEO turnover decisions by failing to ignore uninformative performance outcome signals. I show that CEOs of firms with barely positive shareholder returns in the previous year are less likely to be dismissed than CEOs of firms with barely negative returns, even though this return outcome is conditionally uninformative. I observe a similar pattern for stock returns relative to the S&P 500 index return: a firm's board is less likely to dismiss its CEO if the firm barely outperformed the S&P 500 index than if the firm barely underperformed the S&P 500 index. Moreover, I demonstrate that the tendency of boards to consider uninformative absolute return outcomes has decreased over time, while their tendency to consider uninformative relative return outcomes has increased over time. This suggests that boards have shifted their focus toward relative returns while continuing to violate the informativeness principle. |
| Keywords: | forced CEO turnover, board of directors, informativeness principle, outcome bias, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | G30 M51 D23 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zrh:wpaper:389&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Babcock University, Nigeria); Olumuyiwa G. Yinusa (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria); Tolulope O. Williams (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Rahmon A. Folami (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | While it is clear that financial depth and economic diversity are prerequisites for the realisation of growth and development objectives, heterogeneous factors that determines financial development remains imperfectly understood. This ambiguity in the structural relations between varied causative factors is more pronounced in Africa where conditions for growth and development remains inadequately met. Underexplored aspects such as geographic, political, economic and macroeconomic policy determinant of financial development in Africa could have culminated into the misalignment of the continent financialisation strategies. This paper takes the lead, diverse and holistic approach to assign numerical weights to these unobserved factors to reach conclusions that can redefine policy and research on Africa's financialisation objectives. We compared result along with the mean group (MG), common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators but relied on the AMG results because of its high precision, relevance and superiority in addressing core issues of cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity of regressors.Based on the AMG results, we found geographic, economic and macroeconomic policy factors to lead to financial development in Africa. However, our political/institutional composite index inversely relate to financial development in Africa. This counter-intuitive outcome could be due to Africa, age-long weak institutional capacities. Policy implications were discussed. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development; Geography; Institutions; Macroeconomic Policy; Africa |
| JEL: | D02 G20 P34 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/054&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Dosi; Luigi Marengo; Jacopo Staccioli; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | Are IPRs institutions meant to foster innovative activities or conversely to secure appropriation and profitability? Taking stock of a long-term empirical evidence on the pharmaceutical sector in the US, we can hardly support IPRs intended as an innovation rewarding institution. According to our analysis, pharma patents have constituted legal barriers to protect intellectual monopolies rather than an incentive and a reward to innovative efforts. Patenting strategies appear to be quite aggressive in extending knowledge borders and enlarging the space protected from the possibility of infringements. This is also witnessed by the fact that patent applications are very skewed in the covered trade names and patent thickness expands over time. Conversely, the number of patents protecting new drugs approved by the FDA which draw upon government-sponsored research - as such a mark for quality - falls. Firm-level analysis on profitability confirms strong correlation, restricted to listed pharmaceutical firms, between patent portfolio and profit margins. |
| Keywords: | Intellectual property rights; patents; pharmaceutical industry. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/26&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Babcock University, Nigeria); Olumuyiwa G. Yinusa (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria); Tolulope O. Williams (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria); Rahmon A. Folami (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ogun State, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | While it is clear that financial depth and economic diversity are prerequisites for the realisation of growth and development objectives, heterogeneous factors that determines financial development remains imperfectly understood. This ambiguity in the structural relations between varied causative factors is more pronounced in Africa where conditions for growth and development remains inadequately met. Underexplored aspects such as geographic, political, economic and macroeconomic policy determinant of financial development in Africa could have culminated into the misalignment of the continent financialisation strategies. This paper takes the lead, diverse and holistic approach to assign numerical weights to these unobserved factors to reach conclusions that can redefine policy and research on Africa's financialisation objectives. We compared result along with the mean group (MG), common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators but relied on the AMG results because of its high precision, relevance and superiority in addressing core issues of cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity of regressors.Based on the AMG results, we found geographic, economic and macroeconomic policy factors to lead to financial development in Africa. However, our political/institutional composite index inversely relate to financial development in Africa. This counter-intuitive outcome could be due to Africa, age-long weak institutional capacities. Policy implications were discussed. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development; Geography; Institutions; Macroeconomic Policy; Africa |
| JEL: | D02 G20 P34 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/054&r= |
| By: | Javidanrad, Farzad (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Over the last four decades, the term “financialisation” has entered economics terminologies to explain the development of capitalist economies in which: a) the rate of profit in the production sector is falling or narrowing relative to that in the financial sector b) profit seeking through financial speculation has grown rapidly among the household and the production sectors; c) public and private debt is rapidly accelerating and its ratio to GDP is increasing swiftly; d) there is an independent and accelerated growth of the financial sector compared to that of the real sector. This paper is a theoretical attempt to shed light on these features through the lens of the paradox of monetary profit and its manifestation in the capitalist economy, i.e. the shortage of money in circulation. The aim of this paper is to show how the paradox of monetary profit provides a theoretical framework to analyse the mechanism by which the capitalist economies move towards financialisation. This theoretical argument shows the connection between the shortage of money in circulation and financialisation. The core idea proposed in this paper is that financialisation is the direct result of the shortage of money in circulation, and that this shortage can be explained through the paradox of monetary profit. |
| Keywords: | Capitalism, Paradox of Monetary Profit, Financialisation, Monetary production Economy, Marx JEL Classification: B11 ; E11 ; P10 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1365&r= |
| By: | Kenneth Gillingham |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles are declining in cost so rapidly that they may claim a large share of the vehicle market by 2030. This paper examines a set of practical regulatory design considerations for fuel-economy standards or greenhouse gas standards in the context of highly uncertain electric vehicle costs in the next decade. The analysis takes a cost-effectiveness approach and uses analytical modeling and simulation to develop insight. I show that counting electric vehicles under a standard with a multiplier or assuming zero upstream emissions can reduce electric vehicle market share by weakening the standards. Further, there are tradeoffs from implementing a backstop conventional vehicle standard along with a second standard that also includes electric vehicles, but such a backstop offers the possibility of ensuring that low-cost conventional vehicle technologies are exploited. |
| JEL: | H23 Q48 Q53 Q54 Q58 R48 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29067&r= |
| By: | Pawel Polak (Stony Brook University); Urban Ulrych (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes a general relation between investor's ambiguity and non-Gaussianity of financial asset returns. Based on that relation and utilizing a flexible non-Gaussian returns model for the joint distribution of portfolio and currency returns, we develop an ambiguity-adjusted dynamic currency hedging strategy for international investors. We propose an extended filtered historical simulation that combines Monte Carlo simulation based on volatility clustering patterns with the semi-parametric non-normal return distribution from historical data. This simulation allows us to incorporate investor's ambiguity into the dynamic currency hedging strategy algorithm that can numerically optimize an arbitrary risk measure, such as volatility, value-at-risk, or expected shortfall. The out-of-sample back-test results show that, for globally diversified investors, the derived dynamic currency hedging strategy with ambiguity is stable, robust, and highly risk reductive. It outperforms the benchmarks of constant hedging as well as dynamic approaches without ambiguity in terms of lower maximum drawdown and higher Sharpe and Sortino ratios in gross terms and net of transaction costs. |
| Keywords: | Currency Hedging, Ambiguity, Filtered Historical Simulation, Expected Shortfall, Non- Gaussianity, International Asset Allocation, Currency Risk Management |
| JEL: | C53 C58 F31 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2160&r= |
| By: | Hara, Hiromi (Japan Women's University); Rodríguez-Planas, Núria (Queens College, CUNY) |
| Abstract: | We explore whether a 1990 Japanese educational reform that eliminated gender-segregated and gender-stereotyped industrial arts and home economics classes in junior high schools led to behavioral changes among these students some two decades later when they were married and in their early forties. Using a Regression Discontinuity (RD) design and Japanese time-use data from 2016, we find that the reform had a direct impact on Japanese women's attachment to the labor force, which seems to have changed the distribution of gender roles within the household, as we observe both a direct effect of the reform on women spending more time in traditionally male tasks during the weekend and an indirect effect on their husbands, who spend more time in traditionally female tasks. We present suggestive evidence that women's stronger attachment to the labor force may have been driven by changes in beliefs regarding men' and women's gender roles. As for men, the reform only had a direct impact on their weekend home production if they were younger than their wives and had small children. In such relationships, the reform also had the indirect effect of reducing their wives' time spent in weekend home production without increasing their labor-market attachment. Interestingly, the reform increased fertility only when it decreased wives' childcare. Otherwise, the reform delayed fertility. |
| Keywords: | junior high school, coeducation of industrial arts and home economics, gender gaps, time-use data, employment and labor income, and fertility |
| JEL: | J22 J24 I2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14611&r= |
| By: | Dominic Joseph |
| Abstract: | Banks and financial institutions all over the world manage portfolios containing tens of thousands of customers. Not all customers are high credit-worthy, and many possess varying degrees of risk to the Bank or financial institutions that lend money to these customers. Hence assessment of credit risk is paramount in the field of credit risk management. This paper discusses the use of Bayesian principles and simulation-techniques to estimate and calibrate the default probability of credit ratings. The methodology is a two-phase approach where, in the first phase, a posterior density of default rate parameter is estimated based the default history data. In the second phase of the approach, an estimate of true default rate parameter is obtained through simulations |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03389&r= |
| By: | Gumparthi, Srinivas; S., Pradeepa |
| Abstract: | This paper ‘Demonetization Impact on Liquidity of Large Corporates in India’ focuses on the changes in the Liquidity pattern of the companies’ in-order to cope up with the Business Risk that emerged due to the unforeseen Demonetization Policy of the Government of India. The study aimed at finding the performance of various sectors on liquidity parameters during pre and post demonetization period. The study covered the companies listed in NIFTY 50 over the period of 6 years from 2014-2019. The methodology used for analysis is the longitudinal study under descriptive analysis as it involves the repeated observations of the same variables over a period of time. As the paper focuses on the top companies listed, though companies faced the uncertainty during that particular period of demonetization, they bounced back at the earlier than the MSME companies. Some sectors like FMCG, Pharmaceutical were immune to demonetization as it has an inelastic demand in the market and demonetization created giant opportunities for the software sector as the country has been shifted towards digitalization. Found short-term implications for the cash-intensive sectors but in the long run it helps in the growth of the economy, which in turn will have a positive correlation with the growth of companies. |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:m5qvy&r= |
| By: | Jean-Jacques Rosé (ADERSE - Association pour le Développement de l'Enseignement et de la recherche sur la Responsabilité Sociale de l'Entreprise) |
| Abstract: | When social sciences meet management, they cannot avoid CSR, that necessary oxymoron (Rosé, 2015): an inescapable obstacle that justifies the timeliness of specific work devoted to the pedagogy of a CSR that is not Windows dressing. Such are the onstraints of the question asked, the offspring of a long line of conceptual battles that punctuate the history of a secular education under permanent tension. The result is the need to base all research and teaching of CSR on the solid foundation of an understanding of responsibility in a brief evocation of its multidisciplinary approaches, whose deep roots are inevitably sociological and philosophical. |
| Abstract: | Quand les sciences sociales rencontrent le management, elles ne peuvent éviter la RSE, cet oxymore nécessaire (Rosé, 2015): obstacle incontournable qui justifie l'opportunité des travaux spécifiques consacrés à la pédagogie d'une RSE qui ne soit pas du Windows dressing. Telles sont les contraintes de la question posée, rejeton d'une longue lignée de batailles conceptuelles qui jalonnent l'histoire d'un enseignement séculaire sous tension permanente. La résultante est la nécessité de fonder toute recherche et tout enseignement de la RSE sur le socle solide d'une compréhension de la responsabilité en une brève évocation de ses approches pluridisciplinaires, dont les racines profondes sont inéluctablement sociologiques et philosophiques. |
| Keywords: | CSR,Pedagogy,Contradiction,Dialectic,RSE,Pédagogie,Dialectique |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277474&r= |
| By: | Chaudhuri, K; Howley, P. |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of vaccination against Covid-19 for mental health. Our estimates suggest that vaccination leads to a significant and substantive improvement in the mental health of those most at risk of hospitalisation and death from Covid-19. Our proposed explanation is that in the absence of vaccination, anxiety about contracting COVID-19 has a deleterious impact on the mental health of this cohort. On the other hand, our findings suggest that vaccination does not materially impact the mental health of those least at risk from Covid-19, namely younger cohorts. The lack of any significant impact for this cohort may explain vaccine hesitancy amongst young people. For this group, a lack of uptake may be principally due to a lack of perceived benefits for their own wellbeing as opposed to vaccine hesitancy. |
| Keywords: | covid-19; mental well-being; vaccination; propensity score matching; |
| JEL: | I12 I31 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:21/14&r= |
| By: | William Chen (Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Gregory Phelan (Department of Economics, Williams College) |
| Abstract: | When financial intermediaries’ key characteristic is provision of liquidity through their liabilities, with financial frictions the financial sector in the aggregate is likely to over-accumulate equity, thus decreasing liquidity provision and household welfare. Aggregate household welfare is therefore decreasing in the level of aggregate intermediary equity even though the individual value of intermediaries is increasing in equity, which is why intermediaries over-accumulate equity. Subsidizing intermediary dividends can improve welfare by encouraging earlier payout and decreasing aggregate equity in the financial sector. This policy increases the likelihood that intermediaries provide more liquidity and improves the stability of the economy, even though asset prices fall. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, Macroeconomic instability Macroprudential policy, Banks |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G01 G12 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2021-11&r= |
| By: | Misuraca, Francesco |
| Abstract: | The theme of this article is epistemological: Defining the logical and epistemological statute of Dissent as a sociological act of innovation and change in international law by social groups in opposition to the establishment, sovereign states and their geopolitical alliances. The sociological theory of the loop as an object of study and ontological unity is, therefore, applied to the case of Dissent, to try to explain the paradox of this social function that makes its way, every day, in a world originally dominated by the Force (of military, police, hooliganism, terrorist, antisocial nature, etc.). We try to answer the problem of how Dissent (political-democratic, human rights, civil disobedience, etc.) can be a practice of peaceful contrast to violence and the Force, which can even create such beautiful and fragile buildings as state law, international law, human rights and peace itself. In doing so, it is assumed that international human rights regimes cooperate with Dissent (operating within them, and viceversa) to impose international legal obligations, in the field of human rights, which are fully effective and sanctioned, even in the absence of a police and/or centralized jurisdiction and/or a deterrent system of military sanctions. This concurrent, complementary and quasi-collaborative activity with the States, on the one hand, challenges the "local and nationalized" Force, on the other, "to some extent", follows a "loop" logic making use of them. The conjecture formulated by this article is that the sociological theory of the loop, applied to the case of dissent, can explain the paradox of dissent (political-democratic, in human rights, in civil disobedience, etc.). Indeed, it is aporetic how peaceful practice can contribute to establishing international law, human rights and peace itself without being Force and violence itself. The aporia would be resolved, by conjecture, by arguing that Dissent "is" Strength to a certain extent, that is, that it is logically and ontologically "vague" related to the practice of States and by asserting that the International Regimes of Human Rights are sketches of the future international law (or the future legal systems of the Sovereign States or their, for now, unknown successor). Such an outcome, however, requires a reformulation of the implicit presuppositions of the sociology of Dissent, affecting its logical and ontological foundations, with a new thesis of deontic logic, which resorts to an attenuation of the principle of non contradiction, in the particular field of praxis of Dissent. This allows us to conceptualize the ontological and logical theory that Dissent would be "almost" an act of Force. |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:b7ydw&r= |
| By: | Christina E. Hoicka (University of Victoria, Canada); Jessica Conroy (York University, Canada); Anna Berka (Massey University, New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | Cities as large centres of energy demand and population are important spatially and materially in a renewable energy transition. This study draws on available literature on material dimensions, energy decentralization, and regional approaches to provide a conceptual framework to analyse emerging city renewable energy transition plans for their material- and place-based actor scalar strategies. This framework outlines how the increase in renewable energy provided to cities results in new locations of productivity, interscalar relationships between new and centralized actors, and socio-economic outcomes. We use this to analyse 47 ambitious renewable energy transition plans in densely populated cities. Empirically, this study confirms that, for the most part, regions are important emerging actors in the decentralization of energy systems in a renewable energy transition; that city renewable energy transitions involve the forging of new economic relationships between cities and neighbouring communities and regions, and, as the community energy literature emphasises, that the involvement of a wide range of civic and local actors is important in shaping renewable energy transitions for cities. Further research can investigate how the institutional context is shaping these distinct actor material strategies and emerging interscalar relationships across regions. The socio-economic outcomes, particularly as they relate to new economic relationships between cities and the surrounding region and the re-spatialization of productivity and benefits, should also be examined. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy transition, cities, decentralization, regional approaches, carbon neutral |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoe:wpaper:2106&r= |
| By: | Dante Amengual (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Gabriele Fiorentini (Università di Firenze and RCEA); Enrique Sentana (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | We show that the information matrix test for a multivariate normal random vector coincides with the sum of the two moment tests that look at the means of all the different third- and fourth-order multivariate Hermite polynomials, respectively. We also explain how to simulate its exact, parameter-free, finite sample distribution to any desired degree of accuracy for any dimension of the random vector and sample size. Specifically, we exploit the numerical invariance of the test statistic to affine transformations of the observed variables to simulate draws extremely quickly. |
| Keywords: | Exact test, Hessian matrix, multivariate normality, outer product of the score. |
| JEL: | C30 C46 C52 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2021_2103&r= |
| By: | Drinkwater, Stephen (University of Roehampton); Jennings, Colin (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine three forms of regret in relation to the UK’s hugely significant referendum on EU membership that was held in June 2016. These are, (i) whether leave voters at the referendum subsequently regretted their choice (in the light of the result), (ii) whether non-voters regretted their decisions not to vote (remain) and (iii) whether individuals were more likely to indicate that it is everyone’s duty to vote following the referendum. We find evidence in favour of all three types of regret. In particular, leave voters and non-voters were significantly more likely to indicate that they would vote remain given their chance to do so again and there was a significant increase in the probability of an individual stating that it was everyone’s duty to vote in a general election in 2017 compared to 2015. |
| Keywords: | EU referendum, Brexit, voting, regret, non-voters |
| JEL: | D70 D72 F60 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14589&r= |
| By: | Zhao, Jing; Cochrane, Mark; Lee, Janice; Elmore, Andrew; Numata, Izaya; Zhang, Xin |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312773&r= |
| By: | Shu, Yiheng; Chang, Qing; Hu, Wuyang; Li, Jian; Qing, Ping; Chen, Xuan |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312757&r= |
| By: | Belitski, Maksim (University of Reading); Guenther, Christina (WHU Vallendar); Kritikos, Alexander S. (DIW Berlin); Thurik, Roy (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | The existential threat to small businesses, based on their crucial role in the economy, is behind the plethora of scholarly studies in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining the 14 contributions of the special issue on the "Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses," the paper comprises four parts: a systematic review of the literature on the effect on entrepreneurship and small businesses; a discussion of four literature strands based on this review; an overview of the contributions in this special issue; and some ideas for post-pandemic economic research. |
| Keywords: | small businesses, entrepreneurs, COVID-19, economic effects |
| JEL: | L26 J38 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14630&r= |
| By: | Costoya, Victoria; Echeverría, Lucía; Edo, María; Rocha, Ana; Thailinger, Agustina |
| Abstract: | Based on a novel survey for Argentina, this paper provides evidence of the changes in time allocation within couples during the COVID-19 emergency. The survey was conducted online during the period of national lockdown in 2020 and collected information on hours allocated to paid work, housework, child care, educational childcare and leisure by both members of the couple before and during the lockdown, as well as socio-demographic characteristics. Our sample consists of 961 couples of which 785 have children. Our results indicate that during the lockdown, despite a reduction in time assigned to paid work and an increase in time spent in unpaid activities for both members of the couple, gender gaps regarding the latter increased. Specifically, while the load of men and women's work for pay became more equitable, women took up a larger proportion of the additional housework and childcare. We found that some factors mitigated (whether the man reduced his hours of work or whether both partners kept on doing so) while others potentiated (whether the woman reduced her hours of work, whether she continued working from home, or whether the couple outsourced housework before lockdown) the changes in the within-couple gender gaps in unpaid activities. |
| Keywords: | Distribución del Tiempo; Brecha de Género; Aislamiento Social; COVID-19; |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3506&r= |
| By: | Ian Ball (Department of Economics, MIT); Jose-Antonio Espin-Sanchez (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We introduce experimental persuasion between Sender and Receiver. Sender chooses an experiment to perform from a feasible set of experiments. Receiver observes the realization of this experiment and chooses an action. We characterize optimal persuasion in this baseline regime and in an alternative regime in which Sender can commit to garble the outcome of the experiment. Our model includes Bayesian persuasion as the special case in which every experiment is feasible; however, our analysis does not require concaviï¬ cation. Since we focus on experiments rather than beliefs, we can accommodate general preferences including costly experiments and non-Bayesian inference. |
| Keywords: | Experiments, Beliefs, Decision Making, Information, Bayesian |
| JEL: | D81 D82 D83 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2298&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | While the non-mining sector was severely impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, overall growth in Guinea remains strong, reaching 7 percent in 2020, driven by booming mining production. Inflation exceeded 12 percent as a result of COVID-related supply disruptions and the ongoing monetary and fiscal response. The already weak social indicators have deteriorated further. |
| Keywords: | authorities' intention; accommodative fiscal policy; Guinean authorities; near-term priority; value chain; money market rate; Mining sector; COVID-19; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Africa; West Africa |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/146&r= |
| By: | Laschever, Ron A. (Compass Lexecon); Weinstein, Russell (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) |
| Abstract: | We study whether there are improvements in worker-firm matching when employers and applicants can credibly signal their interest in a match. Using a detailed résumé dataset of more than 400 applicants from one university over five years, we analyze a matching process in which firms fill some of their inter- view slots by invitation and the remainder are filled by an auction. Consistent with the predictions of a signaling model, we find the auction is valuable for less desirable firms trying to hire high desirability applicants. Second, we find evidence that is consistent with the auction benefiting overlooked applicants. Candidates who are less likely to be invited for an interview (e.g., non-U.S. citizens) are hired after having the opportunity to interview through the auction. Among hires, these candidates are more represented among auction winners than invited interviewees, and this difference is more pronounced at more desirable firms. Finally, counterfactual analysis shows the auction increases the number and quality of hires for less desirable firms, and total hires in the market. |
| Keywords: | labor markets, signaling, hiring, interview, matching |
| JEL: | J20 M51 D83 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14622&r= |
| By: | Tadao Hoshino; Takahide Yanagi |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate a treatment effect model in which individuals interact in a social network and they may not comply with the assigned treatments. We introduce a new concept of exposure mapping, which summarizes spillover effects into a fixed dimensional statistic of instrumental variables, and we call this mapping the instrumental exposure mapping (IEM). We investigate identification conditions for the intention-to-treat effect and the average causal effect for compliers, while explicitly considering the possibility of misspecification of IEM. Based on our identification results, we develop nonparametric estimation procedures for the treatment parameters. Their asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality, are investigated using an approximate neighborhood interference framework by Leung (2021). For an empirical illustration of our proposed method, we revisit Paluck et al.'s (2016) experimental data on the anti-conflict intervention school program. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07455&r= |
| By: | Rym Ibrahim (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PsyCLÉ - Centre de Recherche en Psychologie de la Connaissance, du Langage et de l'Émotion - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03260849&r= |
| By: | Itakura, Ken; Lee, Hiro |
| Abstract: | Before the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) entered into force, the United States withdrew from the trade accord. Eleven other TPP signatories decided to revive the agreement, which led to the implementation of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TPP (CPTPP). The objectives of this paper are to estimate economic welfare effects under alternative scenarios of TPP/CPTPP, to evaluate the extent of losses to the US from its withdrawal from TPP and expected gains from rejoining the Trans-Pacific trade accord, and to examine whether the US economy would have to undergo extensive sectoral adjustments from its participation. We employ a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine these issues. The results suggest that the US loses an opportunity to gain 0.4 percent in its economic welfare by withdrawing from TPP, but it would be able to recover most of its projected welfare gains by reengaging with CPTPP. Since sectoral output adjustments in the US are small, its adjustment costs from participation in CPTPP would be limited. In addition, there exist political incentives for the US to become a member of this trade accord. |
| Keywords: | TPP, CPTPP, US, GTAP, CGE model |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F17 |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109133&r= |
| By: | Frédéric Marty |
| Abstract: | The policy initiatives announced on both sides of the Atlantic to complement competition rules focus on two key dimensions: the contestability of markets on the one hand and fairness in their functioning on the other. The underlying idea is that the market positions of Big Tech would be inexpugnable - insofar as high barriers to entry protect them from self-regulating competition and insofar as they would have regulatory power over their respective ecosystems. Competition for the market would no longer be free, and competition in the market would be distorted. Our purpose in this working paper is to discuss these two dimensions. Are digital markets still contestable, and is the competition in them still competition on the merits? Finally, we discuss the remedies proposed to address these two alleged phenomena. La concentration des marchés numériques : Comment préserver les conditions d'une concurrence effective pour le marché et d'une concurrence non faussée dans le marché ? Les initiatives politiques annoncées de part et d’autre de l’Atlantique pour compléter les règles de concurrence mettent l’accent sur deux dimensions essentielles : la contestabilité des marchés d’une part et la loyauté dans le fonctionnement dans leur fonctionnement d’autre part. L’idée sous-jacente est la suivante : les positions de marché des grandes entreprises du numérique seraient inexpugnables – dans la mesure où de fortes barrières à l’entrée les protègent d’un caractère auto-régulateur de la concurrence et dans la mesure où elles jouiraient d’un pouvoir de régulation sur leurs écosystèmes respectifs. La concurrence pour le marché ne serait plus libre et la concurrence dans le marché serait faussée. Notre propos dans ce document de travail est de discuter ces deux dimensions. Les marchés numériques sont-ils toujours contestables et la concurrence qui s’y exerce est-elle encore une concurrence par les mérites ? Nous discutons enfin les remèdes proposés pour répondre à ces deux phénomènes allégués. |
| Keywords: | contestability,fairness,loyalty,Big Tech,concentration,exclusionary abuses, contestabilité,loyauté de la concurrence,équité,Big Tech,concentration,abus d’éviction |
| JEL: | K21 L41 |
| Date: | 2021–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2021s-27&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2021–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/159&r= |
| By: | A. K. M. Amanat Ullah; Fahim Imtiaz; Miftah Uddin Md Ihsan; Md. Golam Rabiul Alam; Mahbub Majumdar |
| Abstract: | The unpredictability and volatility of the stock market render it challenging to make a substantial profit using any generalized scheme. This paper intends to discuss our machine learning model, which can make a significant amount of profit in the US stock market by performing live trading in the Quantopian platform while using resources free of cost. Our top approach was to use ensemble learning with four classifiers: Gaussian Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression with L1 regularization and Stochastic Gradient Descent, to decide whether to go long or short on a particular stock. Our best model performed daily trade between July 2011 and January 2019, generating 54.35% profit. Finally, our work showcased that mixtures of weighted classifiers perform better than any individual predictor about making trading decisions in the stock market. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13148&r= |
| By: | Krista Finstad-Milion (ICN Business School); Kim Ceulemans (TBS - Toulouse Business School); Emma Avetisyan (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | Over the last twenty-five years, the concept of Engaged Scholarship has gained momentum in the academic world striving to value knowledge developed through academia while actively engaging and dialoguing with society. Yet, how business schools and faculties, and universities at large, can move beyond institutional boundaries to engage deeply with society on complex urgent problems, such as sustainability, remains less explored. To address this issue this study focuses on the role of boundary-spanning intermediary organizations for responsible education, namely the PRME France-Benelux Chapter. Relying on evidence from multiple internal Chapter documents and PRME global sources of information and exemplifying the three levels of engaged scholarship drawing on concrete engaged educational, research and service actions of the PRME France-Benelux Chapter, our research shows evidence of how the Chapter convenes and facilitates collaboration for sustainability at a regional level. We conclude that PRME Chapters, as well as other regional and national networks, have the potential to further foster substantial responsible management education among their signatory schools through creating space for conversations, knowledge and practice sharing, and capacity building on the urgent topic of sustainability and CSR. |
| Abstract: | Au cours des vingt-cinq dernières années, le concept « engaged scholarship » a pris de l'ampleur dans le monde universitaire, s'efforçant de valoriser les connaissances développées par le milieu universitaire tout en s'engageant activement et en dialoguant avec la société. Pourtant, la manière dont les écoles et facultés de management, et les universités en général, peuvent dépasser les frontières institutionnelles pour s'engager profondément avec la société sur des problèmes complexes et urgents, tels que la durabilité, reste moins explorée. Pour répondre à cette problématique, cette étude s'intéresse au rôle des organisations régionales transfrontalières qui sont vecteurs d'une éducation responsable en management, et plus précisément le chapitre PRME France-Benelux. S'appuyant sur des exemples tirés de multiples documents internes du chapitre et des sources d'informations de PRME Global, et illustrant les trois niveaux de « engaged scholarship » en s'appuyant sur des actions concrètes d'éducation, de recherche et de services engagées par le chapitre PRME France-Benelux, notre travail de recherche montre comment le chapitre se réunit et facilite la collaboration pour contribuer aux efforts de développement durable au niveau régional. Nous concluons que les chapitres PRME, ainsi que d'autres réseaux universitaires régionaux et nationaux, ont le potentiel de favoriser un enseignement substantiel du management responsable dans leurs écoles signataires en créant un espace pour des échanges, le partage des connaissances et pratiques et le renforcement des capacités sur le sujet urgent de la durabilité et de la RSE. |
| Keywords: | PRME,Sustainability,Higher Education,RSE,Enseignement supérieur -- Europe |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277483&r= |
| By: | Orlovic, Martina; Warraich, Haider; Wolf, Douglas; Mossialos, Elias |
| Abstract: | Context: Americans express a strong preference for participating in decisions regarding their medical care, yet they are often unable to participate in decision-making regarding their end-of-life care. Objective: To examine determinants of end-of-life planning; including, the effect of an individual's ageing and dying process, health status and socio-economic and racial/ethnic background. Methods: US observational cohort study, using data from the Health and Retirement Study (1992 – 2014) including 37,494 individuals. Random-effects logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between the presence of a living will and a range of individual time-varying characteristics, including time to death, and several time-invariant characteristics. Results: End-of-life planning depends on several patient characteristics and circumstances, with socio-economic and racial/ethnic background having the largest effects. The probability of having a living will rises sharply late in life, as we would expect, and is further modified by the patient's proximity to death. The dying process, exerts a stronger influence on end-of-life planning than does the aging. Conclusions: Understanding differences that increase end-of-life planning is important to incentivize patients’ participation. Advance planning should be encouraged and accessible to people of all ages as it is inevitable for the provision of patient-centered and cost-effective care. |
| Keywords: | advance care planning; end-of-life; end-of-life planning; living will |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111538&r= |
| By: | Roman V. Kirin |
| Abstract: | This study aims to show the fundamental difference between logistic regression and Bayesian classifiers in the case of exponential and unexponential families of distributions, yielding the following findings. First, the logistic regression is a less general representation of a Bayesian classifier. Second, one should suppose distributions of classes for the correct specification of logistic regression equations. Third, in specific cases, there is no difference between predicted probabilities from correctly specified generative Bayesian classifier and discriminative logistic regression. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03715&r= |
| By: | Kumar Sur, Pramod |
| Abstract: | Why does the vaccination rate remain low, even in countries where long-established immunization programs exist, and vaccines are provided for free? We study this lower vaccination paradox in the context of India—which contributes to the largest pool of under-vaccinated children in the world and about one-third of all vaccine-preventable deaths globally. We explore the importance of historical events shaping current vaccination practices. Combining historical records with survey datasets, we examine the Indian government’s forced sterilization policy implemented in 1976-77 and find that greater exposure to forced sterilization has had a large negative effect on the current vaccination completion rate. We explore the mechanism for this practice and find that institutional delivery and antenatal care are low in states where policy exposure was high. Finally, we examine the consequence of lower vaccination, suggesting that child mortality is currently high in states with greater sterilization exposure. Together, the evidence suggests that government policies implemented in the past could have persistent impacts on adverse demand for healthseeking behavior, even if the burden is exceedingly high. |
| Keywords: | Vaccination, immunization, family planning, forced sterilization, institutional delivery, antenatal care, child mortality, persistence, N01, I12, I18, O53, J13, Z1 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000185&r= |
| By: | Maksim Belitski; Christina Guenther; Alexander S. Kritikos; Roy Thurik |
| Abstract: | The existential threat to small businesses, based on their crucial role in the economy, is behind the plethora of scholarly studies in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining the 14 contributions of the special issue on the “Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses,” the paper comprises four parts: a systematic review of the literature on the effect on entrepreneurship and small businesses; a discussion of four literature strands based on this review; an overview of the contributions in this special issue; and some ideas for post-pandemic economic research. |
| Keywords: | Small businesses, entrepreneurs, COVID-19 pandemic, economic effects |
| JEL: | L26 J38 I18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1961&r= |
| By: | Don Fullerton; Shan He |
| Abstract: | Circular Economy literature recommends longer lasting products, in order to reduce pollution from extraction, production, and disposal. Our economic analysis finds conditions where consumers choose lives that are too short – a “durability gap”. Then policies targeting durability raise welfare. While externalities are corrected by Pigovian taxes that ignore durability, raising the output tax nonetheless induces consumers to pay more for goods that last longer. Second, if the tax is suboptimal, a durability mandate raises welfare. Third, internalities have ambiguous effects. Fourth, a social discount rate less than private discount rate is the strongest case for policy to favor durability. |
| JEL: | H21 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29073&r= |
| By: | Lars Osberg (Department of Economics, Dalhousie University) |
| Date: | 2021–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dal:wpaper:daleconwp2021-01&r= |
| By: | Sang Truong; Humberto Barreto |
| Abstract: | The distribution of household income is a central concern of modern economic policy due to its strong influence on life quality. Yet, non-expert audiences are unaware of the relationship between these two factors. To effectively communicate the effect of income inequality on the quality of life and among the strata, we have designed a novel technique for visualizing income distribution and inequality over time by using the U.S. household income microdata from the Current Population Survey. The result is a striking dynamic animation of income distribution over time, drawing public attention and further investigating economic inequality. Detailed implementation of this project is available at https://github.com/sangttruong/incomevis . |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03733&r= |
| By: | Meglioli, Francesco; Gauci, Stephanie |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present a new approach to analyse the interconnectedness between a macro-level network and a local-level network. Our methodology is developed on the Diebold and Yilmaz connectedness measure and it considers the presence of entities within a global network which can influence other entities within their own local network but are not relevant enough to influence the entities which do not belong to the same local network. This methodology is then applied to the Maltese domestic investment funds sector and we find that a high-level correlation between the domestic funds can transmit higher spillovers to the local stock exchange index and to the government bond secondary market prices. Moreover, a high correlation among the Maltese domestic investment funds can increase their vulnerability to shocks stemming from financial indices, and therefore, investment funds may potentially become a shock transmission channel. JEL Classification: C32, C58, G10, G23 |
| Keywords: | contagion, herding behaviour, interconnectedness, investment funds, Network model, systemic risk |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:2021124&r= |
| By: | Gyetvai, Attila (Banco de Portugal); Zhu, Maria (Syracuse University) |
| Abstract: | Which former coworkers help displaced workers find jobs? We answer this question by studying occupational similarity in job finding networks. Using matched employer-employee data from Hungary, this paper relates the unemployment duration of displaced workers to the employment rate of their former coworker networks. We find that while coworkers from all occupations are helpful in job finding, there is significant heterogeneity in effects by occupation skill-level. For workers in low-skill jobs, coworkers who worked in the same narrow occupation as the displaced worker are the most useful network contacts. For workers in high-skill jobs, coworkers from different occupations are the most useful network contacts. |
| Keywords: | networks, job search, former coworkers, unemployment duration, skill heterogeneity |
| JEL: | J64 D85 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14615&r= |
| By: | Khavul, Susanna; Estrin, Saul; Wright, Mike |
| Abstract: | As a digital financial innovation, equity crowdfunding (ECF) allows investors to exploit the complementarity of information provision and network effects in a reduced transaction cost environment. We build on the underlying distinction between soft and hard information and show that ECF platforms create an environment of greater information pooling that benefits from network externalities. We test our hypotheses using a unique proprietary dataset and find that soft information has a greater impact than hard on the likelihood that a financing pitch will be successful. Moreover, the effects of soft information are amplified by the size of the investor network on the platform and network size also positively moderates the effect of information on the amount invested during each pitch. We conclude that ECF platforms can successfully exploit low transaction costs of the digital environment and bring network externalities to bear on investor decisions. Taken together that these increase the supply of funds to entrepreneurs. |
| Keywords: | equity crowdfunding; entrepreneurial finance; soft information; network externalities; platforms; e Research Infrastructure and Investment Fund; Centre for Economic Performance; Springer deal |
| JEL: | G23 J26 M13 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109808&r= |
| By: | Cigno, Alessandro (University of Florence) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature concerning the evolution of cultural traits in general and preferences in particular, and the emergence and persistence of rules or norms, from a family perspective. In models where every new person is effectively the clone of an existing one (either a parent or anyone else), there may be evolution only in the demographic sense that the share of the population who hold a certain trait increases or decreases. Evolution in the strict sense of new traits making their appearance occurs in models where the trait characterizing any given member of any given generation is a combination of traits drawn at random from those represented in the previous generation. Preferences may be altruistic or non-altruistic, but individuals may behave as if they were altruistic even if they are not, because a rule or norm may make it in their interest to do so. Evolutionary stability and renegotiation proofness play analogous roles, the former by selecting altruistic preferences, and the latter by selecting cooperation-inducing rules. The existence of population groups recognizable by outward characteristics like ethnicity or religious practice may convey useful information regarding imperfectly observable traits, such as preferences, of direct interest to individuals, but it may also lead individuals to judge others by their group membership rather than by their unobservable individual qualities, and thus to see them as possible foes. |
| Keywords: | evolution, preferences, rules, socialization, matching, hold-up problem |
| JEL: | Z1 C78 D01 D02 D13 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14621&r= |
| By: | Ault, Toby; Carrillo, Carlos; Chambers, Robert G.; He, Yurou; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel; Sheng, Yu |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Productivity Analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312864&r= |
| By: | Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul |
| Abstract: | This article provides an interim assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. Estimates suggest a median output loss of about 8 percent in 2020, a gap that is expected to narrow to around 4 percent of the pre-pandemic trend by the end of 2021. There is however a high dispersion of economic losses across economies, reflecting varying exposures to the pandemic and societies' responses. High-frequency indicators and epidemiological models provide some insights into the interactions between the pandemic evolution and societies' strategies of combating it, including the role of vaccination. The article draws lessons from experiences thus far and discusses challenges ahead. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 pandemic, health-economic tradeoffs |
| JEL: | E00 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:959&r= |
| By: | Hidalgo-Oñate, Diego |
| Abstract: | The capitalist economic model is unsustainable because far from producing an increase in the well-being of the population, it has intensified environmental and social problems. The 2008 Constitution of Ecuador includes some approaches when claiming the "sumak kawsay" or "good living", which grants rights to nature and considers a form of social and solidarity economy. Some of the approaches of groups that demand social change are accepted, which would improve government management in the design, implementation, and evaluation stages of public policies. Regarding the implementation stage, the scope is to analyze and present a proposal for public environmental, health, and education policies, which would allow us to overcome the crisis. Finally, it seeks to contribute to the discussion around post-development, that is, the viability of sustainable communities that allow supporting the theory of local development and specifically the “sumak kawsay” or “good living” adopted by Ecuador. |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hq5sr&r= |
| By: | Daiji Kawaguchi; Sagiri Kitao; Manabu Nose |
| Abstract: | Drawing on the original survey of Japanese firms during the COVID-19 pandemic, we estimate the impact of the crisis on firms’ sales, employment and hours worked per employee and roles of Work-from-Home (WfH) arrangements in mitigating negative effects. We find that the lowered mobility, induced by the state of emergency declared by the government and fear of infection, significantly contracted firms’ activities. On average, a 10% reduction in mobility reduced sales by 2.8% and hours worked by 2.1%, but did not affect employment. This muted employment response is consistent with limited changes in aggregate employment at the extensive margin during COVID-19 in Japan. We find that the adoption of WfH before COVID-19 mitigated the negative impact by 55% in terms of sales and by 35% in terms of hours worked. Adapting to the crisis environment by increasing the number of employees working from home is also found to moderately reduce the negative impact on sales and work hours. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Work-from-Home (WfH), Remote work, Firm sales, Employment, Hours worked, Japanese economy |
| JEL: | J5 J6 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-71&r= |
| By: | Gemici, Evrim; Gemici, Zafer |
| Abstract: | Science and technology (S&T) indicators are important in evaluating how successful countries are in factors described by endogenous growth models. Accordingly, the aim of this paper is to investigate S&T indicators of Turkey in a comparative and more hitherto comprehensive study and to present a guiding reference for researchers and decision makers working on innovation and technology policies. This study was carried out using online databases such as those of the OECD, World Bank, Eurostat, and TÜİK considering the criteria used in the literature to measure countries’ R&D and innovation performances, and Turkey’s innovative performance is presented in comparison with the world’s by summarizations within the scope of the study. The results demonstrate that Turkey has made significant progress in the last 20 years in terms of R&D and innovation, but it is still far from reaching the indicators of developed countries. In particular, the increase in R&D and innovation performance has decreased due to the economic difficulties experienced in the world and in Turkey after 2012 and 2013. Based on the indicators evaluated in this study, some suggestions are given and prioritized to increase Turkey’s innovation performance. |
| Date: | 2021–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:csyud&r= |
| By: | Xiaotie Deng; Yotam Gafni; Ron Lavi; Tao Lin; Hongyi Ling |
| Abstract: | We study competition among contests in a general model that allows for an arbitrary and heterogeneous space of contest design, where the goal of the contest designers is to maximize the contestants' sum of efforts. Our main result shows that optimal contests in the monopolistic setting (i.e., those that maximize the sum of efforts in a model with a single contest) form an equilibrium in the model with competition among contests. Under a very natural assumption these contests are in fact dominant, and the equilibria that they form are unique. Moreover, equilibria with the optimal contests are Pareto-optimal even in cases where other equilibria emerge. In many natural cases, they also maximize the social welfare. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13363&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | At the request of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and in consultation with the Africa Department (AFR) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a remote Government Finance Statistics (GFS) mission from the Statistics Department (STA) took place in Madagascar from October 26 to November 13, 2020. The objective of this mission was to continue supporting the authorities in their project to adopt international GFS standards based on the methodology of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) and the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide (PSDSG) and to improve GFS in general. |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Debt statistic; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; C. mission work; report constitute; GFS questionnaire; Government finance statistics; Financial statements; Data processing; Stocks; Africa |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/151&r= |
| By: | PURBA, PRIA MITRA |
| Abstract: | Di era zaman globalisasi ini kemajuan Teknologi Informasi sangatlah pesat, informasi dapat kita ketahui dengan mudah seiring perkembangan zaman. Dalam perkembangan teknologi saat ini memulai bisnis tidak semudah apa yang anda bayangkan. Kita lihat saja banyak saat ini pengusaha pengusaha yang kesuksesannya sangat luar biasa sehingga dapat meningkatkan perekonomian dunia. Kita tahu bahwa persaingan dalam memulai bisnis di era saat ini sangat banyak. Banyak perusahaan perusahaan yang mecari beragam cara dan ide untuk memajukan usahanya. Saat ini berdagang atau memulai bisnis dengan aplikasi start up semakin berkembang pesat, bahkan yang kita saksikan saat ini banyak perusahaan yang sudah sukses dalam mengembangkan bisnis ini. Salah satu perusahaan start up yang sudah sukses saat ini contoh nya: Shopee,Lazada,Gojek,Grab dan lain sebagai. Aplikasi tidak hanya dapat digunakan oleh perusahaan atau lembaga besar saja melainkan semua kalangan, terutama kalangan kecil da menengah dapat menggunakan aplikasi sebagai media promosi yang hemat sekaligus menampilkan profesionalitas aplikasi menjadi salah satu media yang dapat diandalkan. |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:6f8uq&r= |
| By: | Erick Rangel González; Luis Fernando López Ornelas |
| Abstract: | Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is often identified as a driver of economic growth, although there is no consensus on this topic in the international empirical evidence regarding its effect on labor productivity. This document analyzes the effects of Foreign Direct Investment on labor productivity in the manufacturing sector in Mexico during the 2007-2015 period by using panel data and federative entities as unit of analysis. The estimates are calculated by the generalized method of moments, which allows to consider for possible endogeneity problems. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant effect of FDI as a proportion of manufacturing GDP on the growth rate of labor productivity when the latter is estimated with the Manufacturing Labor Productivity Index published by INEGI. Similar results are found if growth in labor productivity is estimated by using manufacturing GDP per worker, although the latter have less statistical power in some specifications. |
| JEL: | J01 J24 Q29 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Niembro, Andrés; Calá, Carla Daniela; Belmartino, Andrea |
| Abstract: | El estudio de la especialización productiva regional es clave para diseñar políticas de desarrollo territorial. Sin embargo, las medidas usualmente utilizadas no tienen en cuenta la interdependencia entre actividades y presentan otros problemas relacionados con el nivel de desagregación sectorial empleado. Para superar estas limitaciones, proponemos una nueva forma de definir la especialización regional a partir de técnicas de análisis multivariado, que son aplicadas a datos del total de empleo asalariado registrado en el sector privado de Argentina. Primero, conformamos un conjunto de perfiles sectoriales de coaglomeración territorial y, a partir de ellos, definimos una tipología empírica de Áreas Económicas Locales en función de sus patrones productivos. Los resultados muestran que la metodología propuesta ayuda a capturar interdependencias entre actividades, distinguir dentro de una categoría especializaciones cualitativamente diferentes y dar cuenta tanto del tipo de especialización como del grado de diversidad productiva regional. |
| Keywords: | Especialización de la Producción; Diversificación de la Producción; Economías de Aglomeración; Análisis Multivariado; |
| Date: | 2021–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3483&r= |
| By: | Frank A. Wolak |
| Abstract: | Growing amounts of intermittent renewable generation capacity substantially increases the complexity of determining whether sufficient energy will be available to meet hourly demands throughout the year. As the events of August 2020 in California and February 2021 in Texas demonstrate, supply shortfalls can have large economic and public health consequences. An empirical analysis of these two events demonstrates that similar supply shortfalls are likely to occur in the future without a paradigm shift in how long-term resource adequacy is determined for an electricity supply industry with significant intermittent renewables. An alternative approach to determining long-term resource adequacy that explicitly recognizes the characteristics of different generation technologies is outlined and its properties explored relative to current approaches. |
| JEL: | L22 L23 Q2 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29033&r= |
| By: | Raúl Delgado (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo); Huáscar Eguino (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo); Aloisio Lopes (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo) |
| Abstract: | Esta publicación presenta un conjunto de experiencias recientes de ministerios de finanzas de la región de América Latina y el Caribe en tres áreas de intervención donde convergen los temas de cambio climático y las responsabilidades de estos ministerios. Así mismo, la publicación aporta elementos para que el diseño de las políticas fiscales coadyuve a un crecimiento sostenible. Las tres áreas donde las intervenciones de los ministerios de finanzas resultan cruciales son: 1) la gestión de los riesgos económicos, fiscales y financieros asociados a los eventos climáticos extremos y al cambio climático; 2) los desafíos de la transición hacia economías bajas en emisiones de carbono, y 3) la reorientación de las finanzas públicas para que contribuyan a los objetivos nacionales de resiliencia y descarbonización. La publicación también muestra que, aunque los riesgos y desafíos de la transición hacia economías verdes son reales, existe gran cantidad de evidencia que indica que, si dicha transición se planifica e implementa adecuadamente, es posible generar nuevas oportunidades económicas a la vez que se crean más y mejores empleos. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03319410&r= |
| By: | Jin Yeub Kim (Yonsei Univ) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers social contracts (or mechanisms) in negotiations with incomplete information in which an outside option is a probabilistic conflict and a peaceful agreement is ex ante efficient. Applications include partnership, labor-management bargaining, pretrial negotiations, and international negotiations. I compute the set of interim incentive efficient mechanisms, the ex ante incentive efficient mechanism, as well as the neutral bargaining solution. I numerically illustrate that the focus on the ex ante incentive efficient mechanism as the most reasonable prediction is not robust. This paper justifies the neutral bargaining solution as the unique, robust solution among all interim incentive efficient mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Negotiation; Social contracts; Incomplete information; Incentive efficiency; Neutral bargaining solution |
| JEL: | C78 D74 D82 F51 J52 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2021rwp-187&r= |
| By: | Rüttenauer, Tobias; Best, Henning |
| Abstract: | The topic of environmental inequality, in general describing the unequal distribution of environmental pollution across different social groups, has received increasing attention in Germany and other European countries during the past decade. Though research points towards a disadvantage of minorities in Europe, conclusions regarding the extent of this disadvantage vary across studies. In this contribution, we thus examine whether the extent of environmental inequality depends on the measure of pollution and the spatial scale. We connect spatially aggregated data of the 2011 German census to geographical information of industrial facilities and pollution estimates of German-wide diffusion models. We then use spatial regression models to identify the disadvantage of foreign minorities across these measures. Furthermore, we perform geographically weighted regressions to scrutinize the role of the spatial scale and location. We find that the pollution minority gap is stronger for estimates based on industrial facilities than it is for general pollution models, though there is a consistent disadvantage of minorities within municipalities. Furthermore, we demonstrate that there is strong heterogeneity in the association between the share of foreign minorities and air pollution according to the spatial scale and location of the research area. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5tavs&r= |
| By: | Dobbie, Will; Liberman, Andres; Paravisini, Daniel; Pathania, Vikram S. |
| Abstract: | This paper tests for bias in consumer lending using administrative data from a high-cost lender in the United Kingdom. We motivate our analysis using a new principal-agent model of bias where loan examiners maximize a short-term outcome, not long-term profits, leading to bias against illiquid applicants at the margin of loan decisions. We identify the profitability of marginal applicants using the quasi-random assignment of loan examiners. Consistent with our model, we find significant bias against immigrant and older applicants when using the firm’s preferred measure of long-run profits, but not when using the short-run measure used to evaluate examiner performance. |
| Keywords: | discrimination; consumer credit |
| JEL: | J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:104984&r= |
| By: | Sacchetto, Camilla; Stern, Nicholas; Taylor, Charlotte |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2020–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111549&r= |
| By: | Ilzetzki, Ethan; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S. |
| Abstract: | On the twentieth anniversary of its inception, the euro has yet to expand its role as an international currency. We document this fact with a wide range of indicators including its role as an anchor or reference in exchange rate arrangements—which we argue is a portmanteau measure—and as a currency for the denomination of trade and assets. On all these dimensions, the euro comprises a far smaller share than that of the US dollar. Furthermore, that share has been roughly constant since 1999. By some measures, the euro plays no larger a role than the Deutschemark and French franc that it replaced. We explore the reasons for this underperformance. While the leading anchor currency may have a natural monopoly, a number of additional factors have limited the euro’s reach, including lack of financial center, limited geopolitical reach, and US and Chinese dominance in technology research. Most important, in our view, is the comparatively scarce supply of (safe) euro-denominated assets, which we document. The European Central Bank’ lack of policy clarity may have also played a role. We show that the euro era can be divided into a “Bundesbank-plus” period and a “Whatever it Takes” period. The first shows a smooth transition from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and continued to stabilize German inflation. The second period is characterised by an expanding ECB arsenal of credit facilities to European banks and sovereigns. |
| JEL: | E50 F30 F40 N20 |
| Date: | 2020–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:104100&r= |
| By: | Thomas Bouquet; Mehdi Hmyene; Fran\c{c}ois Porcher; Lorenzo Pugliese; Jad Zeroual |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the application of Simulated Bifurcation algorithms to approximate optimal asset allocations. It will provide the reader with an explanation of the physical principles underlying the method and a Python implementation of the latter applied to 441 assets belonging to the S&P500 index. In addition, the paper tackles the problem of the selection of an optimal sub-allocation; in this particular case, we find an adequate solution within an unrivaled timescale. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03092&r= |
| By: | Ferrari Massimo,; Pagliari Maria Sole, |
| Abstract: | In this paper we explore the cross-country implications of climate-related mitigation policies. Specifically, we set up a two-country, two-sector (brown vs green) DSGE model with negative production externalities stemming from carbon-dioxide emissions. We estimate the model using US and euro area data and we characterize welfare-enhancing equilibria under alternative containment policies. Three main policy implications emerge: i) fiscal policy should focus on reducing emissions by levying taxes on polluting production activities; ii) monetary policy should look through environmental objectives while standing ready to support the economy when the costs of the environmental transition materialize; iii) international cooperation is crucial to obtain a Pareto improvement under the proposed policies. We finally find that the objective of reducing emissions by 50%, which is compatible with the Paris agreement's goal of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius with respect to pre-industrial levels, would not be attainable in absence of international cooperation even with the support of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | DSGE model, open-economy macroeconomics, optimal policies, climate modelling. |
| JEL: | F42 E50 E60 F30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:815&r= |
| By: | Nallari, Anupama; Poorthuis, Ate |
| Abstract: | ‘Village’ as a metaphor, propelled by mobilizing nostalgia for the ‘rural’ as counter to urban fragmentation, has been used across nations to engender a sense of place and community in urban spaces. In Singapore, the narrative of kampung (Malay for village), rooted in restorative nostalgia, has been used repeatedly to foster living in harmony. However, it remains unclear in what ways ‘kampung’ and related social policies resonate with current citizens. The main objective of this research is to generate a grounded, interpretive lens on the term kampung to better understand its meaning and relevance in the context of urban living. A mixed methods approach comprising discourse analysis, in-depth interviews and Q-methodology was used to engage a diverse group of residents in generating grounded perspectives around the construct. We show ‘kampung’ is a heterogenous concept that can be understood through five analytically distinct perspectives wherein race, place, neighbouring, and personal agency vis-à-vis the role of government are recurring themes. The findings lend a social constructivist perspective to wider geographical debates around the urban/rural dichotomy and outline some possibilities for ‘kampung’ under present conditions. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:c2rd5&r= |
| By: | Tugce Karatas; Ali Hirsa |
| Abstract: | Market indicators such as CPI and GDP have been widely used over decades to identify the stage of business cycles and also investment attractiveness of sectors given market conditions. In this paper, we propose a two-stage methodology that consists of predicting ETF prices for each sector using market indicators and ranking sectors based on their predicted rate of returns. We initially start with choosing sector specific macroeconomic indicators and implement Recursive Feature Elimination algorithm to select the most important features for each sector. Using our prediction tool, we implement different Recurrent Neural Networks models to predict the future ETF prices for each sector. We then rank the sectors based on their predicted rate of returns. We select the best performing model by evaluating the annualized return, annualized Sharpe ratio, and Calmar ratio of the portfolios that includes the top four ranked sectors chosen by the model. We also test the robustness of the model performance with respect to lookback windows and look ahead windows. Our empirical results show that our methodology beats the equally weighted portfolio performance even in the long run. We also find that Echo State Networks exhibits an outstanding performance compared to other models yet it is faster to implement compared to other RNN models. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02838&r= |
| By: | Droste, Nils (Lund University); Lienhoop, Nele; Hansjürgens, Bernd |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses participatory budgeting in multilevel governance settings. The Institutional Development and Analysis framework is applied to evaluate two Ecuadorian municipal case studies. Here, participatory budgeting piloted bottom-up institutions to include citizens’ preferences in the allocation of local government expenditures. To formalize and up-scale these local innovations, participatory budgeting became a requirement for all government levels under the 2008 constitution. Higher government level requirements for planning subsequently introduced conflicting demands on decentral budgetary processes and led to partial re-centralization of municipal investment planning. The study thus exemplifies difficulties of i) vertical policy coordination in multilevel participatory budgeting and ii) integrating long-term planning in yearly participatory budgeting investment decisions. These problems need to be resolved to facilitate legitimate and effective participatory budgeting in multilevel governments. |
| Date: | 2021–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:w6usk&r= |
| By: | Rüdiger Fahlenbrach (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)); Eric Jondeau (University of Lausanne - Faculty of Business and Economics (HEC Lausanne); Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the carbon footprint and emissions of the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) U.S. equity portfolio and compare its carbon performance to those of the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock, and to the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG). The SNB portfolio does as well as BlackRock's but has a significantly worse carbon footprint than the portfolio of GPFG. Few firms are responsible for much of the carbon emissions of the SNB portfolio so that carbon conscious investment approaches have a large impact on portfolio emissions but little impact on performance, diversification, or tracking error. We explore several avenues to reduce the carbon footprint of the SNB's portfolio, while not altering its financial performance. If the SNB excluded the firms with the highest carbon intensity rep- resenting 1% of the portfolio value and reinvested in the companies with the lowest intensity in the same sector, the total financed carbon emissions would be reduced by 22% in 2019, with no impact on the portfolio's financial performance. |
| Keywords: | Portfolio carbon footprint, Decarbonized financial investment |
| JEL: | G11 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2159&r= |
| By: | Barbara Annicchiarico; Stefano Carattini; Carolyn Fischer; Garth Heutel |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between business cycles and the design and effects of environmental policies, particularly those with economy-wide significance like climate policies. First, we provide a brief review of the literature related to this topic, from initial explorations using real business cycle models to New Keynesian extensions, open-economy variations, and issues of monetary policy and financial regulations. Next, we provide a list of the main findings that emerge from this literature that are potentially most relevant to policymakers, including the impacts of policy on volatility and how to design policy to adjust to cycles. Finally, we propose several important remaining research questions. |
| JEL: | E32 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29032&r= |
| By: | Mira Frick (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Ryota Iijima (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Yuhta Ishii (Department of Economics at Pennsylvania State University) |
| Abstract: | We study settings in which, prior to playing an incomplete information game, players observe many draws of private signals about the state from some information structure. Signals are i.i.d. across draws, but may display arbitrary correlation across players. For each information structure, we deï¬ ne a simple learning efficiency index, which only considers the statistical distance between the worst-informed player’s marginal signal distributions in different states. We show, ï¬ rst, that this index characterizes the speed of common learning (Cripps, Ely, Mailath, and Samuelson, 2008): In particular, the speed at which players achieve approximate common knowledge of the state coincides with the slowest player’s speed of individual learning, and does not depend on the correlation across players’ signals. Second, we build on this characterization to provide a ranking over information structures: We show that, with sufficiently many signal draws, information structures with a higher learning efficiency index lead to better equilibrium outcomes, robustly for a rich class of games and objective functions. We discuss implications of our results for constrained information design in games and for the question when information structures are complements vs. substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Common learning, Learning efficiency, Comparison of information structures |
| JEL: | D80 D83 C70 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2299&r= |
| By: | Georges Prat (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Remzi Uctum (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Using survey-based data we show that oil price expectations are not rational, implying that the ex-ante premium is a more relevant concept than the widely popular expost premium. We propose for the 3-and 12-month horizons a portfolio choice model with risky oil assets and a risk-free asset. At the maximized expected utility the risk premium is defined as the risk price times the expected oil return volatility. A state-space model, where the risk prices are represented as stochastic unobservable components and where expected volatilities depend on historical squared returns, is estimated using Kalman filtering. We find that the representative investor is risk seeking at short horizons and risk averse at longer horizons. We examine the economic factors driving risk prices whose signs are shown to be consistent with the predictions of the prospect theory. An upward sloped term structure of oil risk premia prevails in average over the period. |
| Keywords: | oil market,oil price expectations,ex-ante risk premium JEL classification : D81 |
| Date: | 2021–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03318785&r= |
| By: | Bergtold, Jason S.; Boys, Kathryn A.; Penn, Jerrod; Ehmke, Mariah D.; Katare, Bhagyashree; Kiesel, Kristin |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession, Agricultural and Food Policy, Health Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312782&r= |
| By: | Marion Leroutier (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Decreasing greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation is crucial to tackle climate change. Yet, empirically little is known on the effectiveness of economic instruments in the power sector. This paper examines the impact of the UK Carbon Price Support (CPS), a carbon tax implemented in the UK power sector in 2013. Compared to a synthetic control unit built from other European countries, emissions from the UK power sector declined by 26 percent on an average year between 2013 and 2017. Bounds on the effects of potential UK confounding policies and several placebo tests suggest that the carbon tax caused at least 80% of this decrease. Three mechanisms are highlighted: a decrease in emissions at the intensive margin; the closure of some high-emission plants at the extensive margin; and a higher probability of closure than in the synthetic UK for plants at risk of closure due to European air quality regulations. This paper shows that a carbon tax on electricity generation can lead to successful decarbonisation. |
| Keywords: | Synthetic control method,Synthetic control method carbon tax,Electricity generation,Carbon tax |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:halshs-03265636&r= |
| By: | Hossain, Ekram; Dechun, HUANG; ZHANG, Changzheng; Neequaye, Ebenezer Nickson; Van, Vu Thi; Ali, Mohammad |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to examine export, import and trade intensity, export specialization index, Herfindahl-Hirschman index for bilateral concentration and diversification indices to analyze the specializations, structure and trends of deficit in bilateral trade between Bangladesh and China from 1995 to 2018 and policy recommendations in this regard. The results reveal that the gap of export and import intensity between Bangladesh and China is widening rapidly perennial. The export specialization indices expose very significant outcomes where among the analyzed 16 sectors; 6 sectors exhibit high specialization, 3 sectors demonstrate medium, 3 sectors exhibit low and the rest of the 4 sectors disclose no specialization for Bangladesh’s export to China. The findings of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reveal that from 1995 to 2010 the export of Bangladesh to China concentrated within few sectors but from the year 2011 to 2018 the export has been reclassifying steadily into diversification. The overall analysis of the indices suggests the necessity to be improved of the level of intra-industry trade between China and Bangladesh. Moreover, emphasis should be given to the sectors having a high specialization that endure the capacity to narrow the trade deficit. Furthermore, the export baskets of Bangladesh to China require to be diversified. Hereafter, various measures and implications are also suggested in the policy recommendation for further improvement. |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7j9vh&r= |
| By: | Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay |
| Abstract: | We have entered a new era of machine learning (ML), where the most accurate algorithm with superior predictive power may not even be deployable, unless it is admissible under the regulatory constraints. This has led to great interest in developing fair, transparent and trustworthy ML methods. The purpose of this article is to introduce a new information-theoretic learning framework (admissible machine learning) and algorithmic risk-management tools (InfoGram, L-features, ALFA-testing) that can guide an analyst to redesign off-the-shelf ML methods to be regulatory compliant, while maintaining good prediction accuracy. We have illustrated our approach using several real-data examples from financial sectors, biomedical research, marketing campaigns, and the criminal justice system. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07380&r= |
| By: | Svraka, András (Tax Policy and Research Unit, Ministry of Finance) |
| Abstract: | We analyse regional wage inequalities in the 2010s using administrative data sources at highly disaggregated regional levels, including commuting zones. The decline in national wage inequalities during this period is reflected at regional levels and we find convergence between regions in income levels and in the decreasing weight of between region inequalities as well. There are still large differences, and high income employees are concentrated in prosperous regions. Interregional mobility was also a driving force behind changes in income inequalities even in a country with low overall mobility rates. High income employees are much more likely to move, typically from less central, less developed regions to more central, larger labour markets. We find some evidence for a transitory mobility premium, although we cannot establish the causality of this relationship. |
| JEL: | D31 J61 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auo:moftwp:9&r= |
| By: | Colmer, Jonathan (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | To what degree can labor reallocation mitigate the economic consequences of weather-driven agricultural productivity shocks? I estimate that temperature-driven reductions in the demand for agricultural labor in India are associated with increases in non-agricultural employment. This suggests that the ability of non-agricultural sectors to absorb workers may play a key role in attenuating the economic consequences of agricultural productivity shocks. Exploiting firm-level variation in the propensity to absorb workers, I estimate relative expansions in manufacturing output in more flexible labor markets. Estimates suggest that, in the absence of labor reallocation, local economic losses could be up to 69% higher. |
| Keywords: | temperature, labor reallocation, industrial production |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14604&r= |
| By: | Eduardo Dávila (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Ansgar Walther (Imperial College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the optimal design of second-best corrective regulation, when some agents or activities cannot be perfectly regulated. We show that policy elasticities and Pigouvian wedges are sufficient statistics to characterize the marginal welfare impact of regulatory policies in a large class of environments. We show that the optimal second-best policy is determined by a subset of policy elasticities: leakage elasticities, and characterize the marginal value of relaxing regulatory constraints. We apply our results to scenarios with unregulated agents/activities and with uniform regulation across agents/activities. We illustrate our results in applications to shadow banking, scale-invariant regulation, asset substitution, and fire sales. |
| Keywords: | Corrective regulation, Second-best policy, Pigouvian taxation, Policy elasticities, Leakage elasticities, Regulatory arbitrage, Financial regulation |
| JEL: | G18 G28 H21 D62 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2295&r= |
| By: | Gerardin Mathilde,; Ranvier Martial. |
| Abstract: | In the context of the Banque de France’s monthly business survey, this document presents the main findings of the textual analysis of business leaders’ comments. First, the richness of these data is illustrated via an elementary sentiment index and the identification of the main social movements since 2009 by means of keywords. Then, the article presents two statistical applications whose reproducibility is discussed. The first one, applied to the 2018 yellow vests and the 2019 strikes, aims to estimate the impact on GDP of an event whose effect is unequivocal. The second, backed by the study of Brexit, aims to characterize, using a supervised learning model and word vectors, the effects of a complex event with multiple impacts. |
| Keywords: | Textual Analysis, Business Survey, Sentiment Index, Keywords, Word Vectors,Brexit, Social Movements. |
| JEL: | C21 C45 C52 E32 D22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:821&r= |
| By: | Eswar Prasad |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a broad analytical overview of how technological changes are likely to affect the practice of central banking. While the advent of decentralized cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin has dominated the headlines, a broader set of changes wrought by advances in technology are likely to eventually have a more profound and lasting impact on central banks. |
| Date: | 2020–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000566:019463&r= |
| By: | Dünhaupt, Petra; Herr, Hansjörg |
| Abstract: | In the last decades in particular, national governments as well as development agencies and international organizations have increasingly turned to participation in global value chains (GVCs) as a development strategy. However, whether the positive development effects of integration are large enough to warrant trade liberalization cannot be answered in a straightforward manner. In this article, we show how development recommendations by international institutions and Western governments have changed since World War II and now ultimately recommend integration into GVCs. Deregulation and liberalization of international trade and capital flows have fueled two opposing trends, which also affect GVCs: on the one hand, there is increasing concentration at the corporate level. On the other hand, globalization has resulted in more countries participating in international trade including via industrial production. Both developments have led to multinationals being able to expand their rent-seeking opportunities while also reducing production costs, especially for simple manufactured goods. Today, it is no longer sufficient for a country to industrialize in order to catch up with the rest of the world, as the prices for industrial goods and quality of productions have fallen tremendously in some cases, at least in comparison to developed countries. Integration into GVCs seems to provide only minimal macroeconomic benefits beyond the positive effects for individual companies and sectors. Industrial policy therefore seems indispensable for catch-up development. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains,economic development,industrial policy,export market share concentration,import price development |
| JEL: | B27 F13 F63 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:1652021&r= |
| By: | Hilscher, Jens; Raviv, Alon; Reis, Ricardo |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new method for measuring the impact of inflation on the real value of public debt. The distribution of debt debasement is based on two inputs: the distribution of privately held nominal debt by maturity, for which we provide new estimates, and the distribution of risk-adjusted inflation dynamics, for which we provide a novel copula estimator using options data. We find that inflation by itself is unlikely to lower the U.S. fiscal burden significantly because debt is concentrated at short maturities and perceived inflation shocks have little short-run persistence and are small. |
| Keywords: | inflation; debt debasement; value at risk; inflation derivatives; debt maturity structure; financial repression; GG009759; GA682288; OUP deal |
| JEL: | F3 G3 E6 |
| Date: | 2021–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107543&r= |
| By: | Shahrzad Safaeimanesh (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, North Cyprus); Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario K7L 3N6, Canada) |
| Abstract: | Trade facilitation is important for the South African Customs Union (SACU) countries because the expansion of international trade is a priority for enhancing their economic growth. Unfortunately, the high trade compliance costs facing importers and exporters operating in SACU conflict with this objective. This article aims to quantify the annual economic welfare gains that the member countries of SACU could realise from reforms that would reduce the documentary and border compliance time and costs. We use a partial equilibrium welfare economics framework that uses up-to-date sets of general equilibrium estimates of import demand and export supply elasticities by country. The impacts on the volume of trade flows and economic welfare are quantified to reduce documentary and border compliance time and trade compliance costs. The economic welfare changes from reducing the documentary and border compliance time and costs for imports and exports would be between US$2.2 billion and US$3.7 billion (2018 prices) or between 0.54% and 0.90% of GDP of the SACU countries. The economic welfare gains from reducing the excess administrative costs for imports and exports of SACU members would be between US$2.2 billion and US$3.7 billion (2018 prices) or between 0.54% and 0.90% of the GDP of the SACU. The most important reforms needed to realize these cost savings include a Single Window administrative structure. In this case, both customs, health, welfare, and controls and the payment of all duties, taxes, and licenses are handled by a single administrative office. Failure to move fast on such changes would have a negative impact on the well-being of SACU members. |
| Keywords: | Trade facilitation; Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU); South Africa; Trade compliance costs; Trade reform; Economic welfare gains |
| JEL: | D60 F10 F14 F15 O12 O24 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:4577&r= |
| By: | Angela Acocella; Chris Caplice; Yossi Sheffi |
| Abstract: | Dynamic macroeconomic conditions and non-binding truckload freight contracts enable both shippers and carriers to behave opportunistically. We present an empirical analysis of carrier reciprocity in the US truckload transportation sector to demonstrate whether consistent performance and fair pricing by shippers when markets are in their favor result in maintained primary carrier tender acceptance when markets turn. The results suggest carriers have short memories; they do not remember shippers' previous period pricing, tendering behavior, or performance when making freight acceptance decisions. However, carriers appear to be myopic and respond to shippers' current market period behaviors, ostensibly without regard to shippers' previous behaviors. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07348&r= |
| By: | Makridis, Christos A. (Arizona State University); Hirsch, Barry (Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | We assess the labor market experiences of military veterans, focusing on three major outcomes, among others, controlling for a wide array of demographic characteristics and industry and occupational fixed effects. First, we find that male and female veterans receive civilian earnings nearly equivalent to nonveteran men and women. This finding implies that military experience is valued in the labor market similarly to foregone civilian experience. Second, veterans are clustered in occupations with somewhat lower than average employment and real earnings growth, and in metropolitan areas with lower levels and growth of real GDP per capita. Third, veterans experience lower returns to formal educational investments (e.g., college) than do nonveterans. Veterans realize earnings gains from professional licenses, but their returns are lower than for nonveterans. These gains are concentrated among science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) jobs, suggesting that veterans could help meet the growing demand for tech talent and artificial intelligence skills. |
| Keywords: | military veterans, earnings levels and dispersion, work experience, licensing, public sector, occupation growth |
| JEL: | J3 J4 J44 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14636&r= |
| By: | Nobuyuki Hanaki; Takashi Hayashi; Michele Lombardi; Kazuhito Ogawa |
| Abstract: | This study experimentally evaluates the performance of partial equilibrium mechanisms when different sectors run their mechanisms separately, despite the existence of complementarity between them. In our simple laboratory experiment setting that includes two sectors, each sector runs the top-trading-cycle mechanism. There is a Pareto-dominant equilibrium, but it requires coordination across sectors. Our results show that coordination failure occurs more frequently when there is asymmetry between the two sectors compared with the one-sector benchmark, even without inter-sectoral complementarity. When mechanisms are run sequentially across the two sectors, such failure is substantially reduced, compared with when they are run simultaneously. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1138&r= |
| By: | Martin Paldam (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | The paper is an empirical study of eight democracy indices and income. The aggregation problem for these indices is large, and thus the gray zone of measurement uncertainty is wide. The indices have no natural scale. Even the top anchor of full democracy is treated differently. In addition, the indices are conceptually different, use different scales, etc. However, they are still highly correlated. Income and all eight indices have one and only one common factor, which is the Democratic Transition, except in the OPEC/MENA sample. Within-project indices are even more correlated. Thus, the details of the assessments used by each project are more important than the conceptual differences. A country-by-country comparison is made of Polity and the Polyarchy index after it is converted to the Polity scale. Many countries are treated differently by the indices. The difference between the two is an estimate of the measurement uncertainty for democracy indices. It is almost three Polity points. |
| Keywords: | Democracy indices, aggregation problem, democratic transition |
| JEL: | A12 K10 P51 |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2021-10&r= |
| By: | Huitfeld, Ingrid (Statistics Norway); Kostol, Andreas Ravndal (Arizona State University); Nimczik, Jan Sebastian (European School of Management and Technology (ESMT)); Weber, Andrea (Central European University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new method to study how workers’ career and wage profiles are shaped by internal labor markets (ILM) and job hierarchies in firms. Our paper tackles the conceptual challenge of organizing jobs within firms into hierarchy levels by proposing a data-driven ranking method based on observed worker flows between occupations within firms. We apply our method to linked employer-employee data from Norway that records fine-grained occupational codes and tracks contract changes within firms. Our findings confirm existing evidence that is primarily based on case studies for single firms. We expand on this by documenting substantial heterogeneity in the structure and hierarchy of ILMs across a broad range of large firms. Our findings on wage and promotion dynamics in ILMs are consistent with models of careers in organizations. |
| Keywords: | internal labor markets, organization of labor, wage setting |
| JEL: | J31 J62 M5 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14637&r= |
| By: | Stefania Bortolotti (Economics Department, University of Bologna & IZA); Felix Kölle (Department of Economics, University of Cologne, Albertus MagnusPlatz, 50923 Cologne, Germany); Lukas Wenner (Department of Economics, University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | In social and economic interactions, individuals often exploit informational asymmetries and behave dishonestly to pursue private ends. In many of these situations the costs and benefits from dishonest behavior do not accrue immediately and at the same time. In this paper, we experimentally investigate the role of time on dishonesty. Contrary to our predictions, we find that neither delaying the gains from cheating, nor increasing temporal engagement with one's own unethical behavior reduces the likelihood of cheating. Furthermore, allowing for a delay between the time when private information is obtained and when it is reported does not affect cheating in our experiment. |
| Keywords: | Dishonesty, cheating, delay, discounting, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D82 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:111&r= |
| By: | Hossain Ahmed Taufiq |
| Abstract: | Water-logging is a major challenge for Dhaka city, the capital of Bangladesh. The rapid, unregulated, and unplanned urbanization, as well as detrimental social, economic, infrastructural, and environmental consequences, not to mention diseases like dengue, challenge the several crash programs combating water-logging in the city. This study provides a brief contextual analysis of the Dhakas topography and natural, as well as storm water drainage systems, before concentrating on the man-made causes and effects of water-logging, ultimately exploring a few remedial measures. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12625&r= |
| By: | Kee, Shaira Limson; Garganera, John Patrick; Maravilla, Nicholle Mae Amor; Garganera, Wilbert; Fermin, Jamie Ledesma; AlDahoul, Nouar; Karim, Hezerul Abdul; Tan, Myles Joshua |
| Abstract: | From a public health perspective, this opinion article discusses why it is necessary to integrate Artificial Intelligence (AI) into the mental health practices in the Philippines. The use of AI systems is an optimum solution to the rising demand for more accessible, cost-efficient, and inclusive healthcare. With the recent developments, the Philippines is deemed to have sufficient capacity to adopt this agendum. This article serves as a call for the introduction of advanced detection tools and predictive analytics in the medical field, especially in the mental health discipline. |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3wg5p&r= |
| By: | Contu, Davide; Mourato, Susana; Kaya, Ozgur |
| Abstract: | Nuclear energy is an energy source that is usually unfavourable among the public due to its inherent risks. However, it presents a number of benefits, including the possibility to reduce emissions and the contribution to tackle climate change. Among the countries adopting nuclear energy, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is unusual in that a large share of its residents consists of expatriates who live only part of their lives in the country with no (or highly unlikely) access to citizenship. This distinctive population structure offers the opportunity to investigate the effect of transient residency on acceptance and preferences towards nuclear energy. We conducted this investigation by designing a stated preferences-based survey, targeting an online nationwide sample. The survey collected information on socio-economic characteristics and attitudes, including views on perceived risks and benefits of nuclear energy, views towards different energy sources and life satisfaction. Results indicate that transient individuals, especially those who are more satisfied with their lives in the UAE, are significantly less likely to oppose the construction of new nuclear plants. These individuals are characterized by a more positive perception of benefits over risks arising from nuclear energy. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | choice experiments; Nuclear energy; social acceptability; transient resident; willingness to accept; 1350515 |
| JEL: | D62 D82 Q48 Q51 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103432&r= |
| By: | Moustafa, Khaled |
| Abstract: | In its current mode of identification of scientific publications, the digital object identifier (DOI) is not more than a web linking of published material to their publishing sources. When a given DOI is searched in the DOI website (doi.org), we are redirected to the publishing websites, if the material is available, or an error message (Not Found) will appear if the DOI-associated content is not available or has moved to a new location. To bestow a worthwhile value to DOI assignations, I suggest the establishment of a unique persistent DOI database (for e.g., as a DOI hub, DOI library, or DOI indexer) in which all the DOI assigned by publishers and journals will be listed in one and same place with basics bibliographic metadata and complete citation information, including the DOI link itself, authors’ names, manuscripts’ titles, publishing source, date of publication, and ideally abstracts and full text if available for free (open access). As a result, when a DOI is searched in the DOI hub, full bibliographic information should be retrievable regardless of its status in the publishing source. Basic indexation information and metadata associated with published articles will thus be always accessible and findable independently from the publishing sources. A unique, general and long-term preserved DOI hub will make it easy to search, find and cite scientific literature from the various scientific fields even if a journal or publisher ceases its publishing activity. |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gr7ue&r= |
| By: | Sebastian Rausch (ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University, Germany, Centre for Energy Policy and Economics at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA); Hidemichi Yonezawa (Division for Energy and Environmental Economics at the Research Department at Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Technology policy is the most widespread form of climate policy and is often preferred over seemingly efficient carbon pricing. We propose a new explanation for this observation: gains that predominantly accrue to households with large capital assets and that influence majority decisions in favor of technology policy. We study climate policy choices in an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous energy technologies and distortionary income taxation. Compared to carbon pricing, green technology policy leads to a pronounced capital subsidy effect that benefits most of the current generations but burdens future generations. Based on majority voting which disregards future generations, green technology policies are favored over a carbon tax. Smart “polluter-pays” financing of green technology policies enables obtaining the support of current generations while realizing efficiency gains for future generations. |
| Keywords: | Climate Policy; Green Technology Policy; Carbon Pricing; Overlapping Generations; Intergenerational Distribution; Social Welfare; General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | Q54 Q48 Q58 D58 H23 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-362&r= |
| By: | Kraft, Kornelius (TU Dortmund); Lammers, Alexander (TU Dortmund) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we report the results of an empirical study on the employment growth effects of a policy intervention, explicitly aimed at increasing placement efficiency of the Federal Employment Agency in Germany. We use the Hartz III reform in the year 2004 as an exogenous intervention that improves the matching process and compare establishments that use the services of the Federal Employment Agency with establishments that do not use the placement services. Using detailed German establishment level data, our difference-in-differences estimates reveal an increase in employment growth among those firms that use the agency for their recruitment activities compared to non-user firms. After the Hartz III reform was in place, establishments using the agency grew roughly two percentage points faster in terms of employment relative to non-users and those establishments achieve an increase in the proportion of hires. We provide several robustness tests using, for example, inverse-probability weighting to additionally account for differences in observable characteristics. Our paper highlights the importance of the placement service on the labor demand side, in particular on the so far overlooked establishment level. |
| Keywords: | Hartz III reform, Federal Employment Agency, matching efficiency, employment growth, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | J23 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14629&r= |
| By: | Zhengyu Shi; Libo Wu; Haoqi Qian; Yingjie Tian |
| Abstract: | Inferring the uncertainties in economic conditions are of significant importance for both decision makers as well as market players. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to construct the Economic Condition Uncertainty (ECU) index that can be used to infer the economic condition uncertainties. The ECU index is a dimensionless index ranges between zero and one, this makes it to be comparable among sectors, regions and periods. We use the daily electricity consumption data of nearly 20 thousand firms in Shanghai from 2018 to 2020 to construct the ECU indexes. Results show that all ECU indexes, no matter at sectoral level or regional level, successfully captured the negative impacts of COVID-19 on Shanghai's economic conditions. Besides, the ECU indexes also presented the heterogeneities in different districts as well as in different sectors. This reflects the facts that changes in uncertainties of economic conditions are mainly related to regional economic structures and targeted regulation policies faced by sectors. The ECU index can also be easily extended to measure uncertainties of economic conditions in different fields which has great potentials in the future. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11593&r= |
| By: | Jules Linden; Cathal O'Donoghue; Denisa M. Sologon |
| Abstract: | During recent crisis, wage subsidies played a major role in sheltering firms and households from economic shocks. During COVID-19, most workers were affected and many liberal welfare states introduced new temporary wage subsidies to protected workers' earnings and employment (OECD, 2021). New wage subsidies marked a departure from the structure of traditional income support payments and required reform. This paper uses simulated datasets to assess the structure and incentives of the Irish COVID-19 wage subsidy scheme (CWS) under five designs. We use a nowcasting approach to update 2017 microdata, producing a near real time picture of the labour market at the peak of the crisis. Using microsimulation modelling, we assess the impact of different designs on income replacement, work incentives and income inequality. Our findings suggest that pro rata designs support middle earners more and flat rate designs support low earners more. We find evidence for strong work disincentives under all designs, though flat rate designs perform better. Disincentives are primarily driven by generous unemployment payments and work related costs. The impact of design on income inequality depends on the generosity of payments. Earnings related pro rata designs were associated to higher market earnings inequality. The difference in inequality levels falls once benefits, taxes and work related costs are considered. In our discussion, we turn to transaction costs, the rationale for reform and reintegration of CWS. We find some support for the claim that design changes were motivated by political considerations. We suggest that establishing permanent wage subsidies based on sectorial turnover rules could offer enhanced protection to middle-and high-earners and reduce uncertainty, the need for reform, and the risk of politically motivated designs. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04198&r= |
| By: | Azacis, Helmuts (Cardiff Business School); Vida, Peter (Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies, Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | A competition authority has an objective, which specifies what output profile firms need to produce as a function of production costs. These costs change over time and are only known by the firms. The objective is implementable if in equilibrium, the firms cannot collude on their reports to the competition authority. Assuming that the firms can only report prices and quantities, we characterize what objectives are one-shot and repeatedly implementable. We use this characterization to identify conditions when the competitive output is implementable. We extend the analysis to the cases when a buyer also knows the private information of firms and when the firms can supply hard evidence about their costs. |
| Keywords: | Collusion, Antitrust, (Repeated) Implementation, Monotonicity, Price-Quantity Mechanism, Hard Evidenc |
| JEL: | C72 C73 D71 D82 L41 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/19&r= |
| By: | Kelly Jones |
| Abstract: | An unintended birth at an early age has the potential to interrupt a woman’s education, with implications for her future career and earnings. This paper investigates the impact of abortion access on women’s economic outcomes later in life. I corroborate earlier findings that abortion access during adolescence and early adulthood reduces early births. I then offer updated evidence that, controlling for contraception access, abortion access increases educa¬tional attainment, career outcomes and earnings of black women and reduces their poverty and reliance on public assistance. Findings suggest that fertility is a significant pathway by which abortion access affects work status and family income, but that other pathways such as expectations and investment in human capital are more relevant for occupational choice and personal earnings. |
| Keywords: | fertility, family planning, abortion, economics of gender |
| JEL: | J13 I2 J24 J16 N32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:202102&r= |
| By: | Luisa Brunori (CHJ - Centre d'histoire judiciaire - UMR 8025 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Lille) |
| Abstract: | The "Suma de tratos y contratos" (1569-1571) by Tomás de Mercado is the first legal treatise on trade that explicitly takes into account the specificities of Spanish trade with the Indias. Tomás de Mercado was faced with very profound changes in trade: long distances, large convoy sizes, the need for large amounts of funding, high risk, variations in prices and the value of money... From a theological-legal point of view, these upheavals posed new and complex questions. Mercado, advisor to the merchants of Seville and an excellent knowledge of New Spain, analyses the sudden transformation of economic and juridical practice with finesse and realism. The 'Suma' is thus an extraordinary real-time testimony to the profound transformations taking place in 16th century commerce. Moreover, faced with fundamental questions of moral order and juridical legitimacy, Mercado proposes legal solutions of high equilibrium in which theological imperatives are masterfully reconciled with the needs of transatlantic commercial practice. |
| Keywords: | Legal history,Business history,Early modern History,Law and Economics,Late scholasticism,Commercial law |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03257298&r= |
| By: | Marie-Alix Deval (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sophie Hooge (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benoit Weil (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The paper studies the institutionalization of a new domain of expertise dedicated to the exploration of the unknown in two established French technological firms with strong organizations of experts. The research is built in a comparative qualitative longitudinal research partnership with Renault (global car manufacturer) and SNCF (national railway company). This research highlights 4 main results: firstly, experts of radical innovation management are experts at managing the unknown in industrial contexts and breakthrough innovation strategic issues, wielding tools, and methods for breakthrough exploration. Secondly, experts of the exploration of the unknown support the other experts to explore the unknown. In this way (third result) this domain emergence highlights a new kind of interaction between innovation and expertise that (last result) cements breakthrough exploration capability as a strategic field. |
| Date: | 2021–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03264373&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Babcock University, Nigeria); Sheriffdeen A. Tella (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | African nations have in time, passed over-relied on remittances inflow to augment domestic finances needed for growth. Despite the volume and magnitude of remittances that have to serve as an alternative source of investment financing, African remains mostly underdeveloped. The altruistic motives of sending remittances to Africa are likely to fade with time. In this study, we argued that the altruistic connection that has been the bedrock of sending money to African countries would eventually fade when the older generation passes away. To lean empirical credence to this assertion, we examine the structural linkages and the channels through which remittances predicts variations in financial developmentas a threshold for gauging the future of African economies. We gathered panel data on indices of remittances and financial development for thirty (30) African countries from 2003 through 2017. We employed the dynamic panel system generalised method of moment (dynamic system GMM) estimation procedure to establish a baseline level relationship between the variables of interest. We adjusted for heterogeneity assumptions inherent in ordinary panel estimation and found a basis for the strict orthogonal relationship among the variables. Findings revealed that a percentage increase in remittances inflow has a short-run, positive relationship with financial development in Africa. The result further revealed that the exchange rate negatively influences financial development in Africa. Based on the findings, it is suggested that, while attracting migrants' transfers which can have significant short-run poverty-alleviating advantages, in the long run, it might be more beneficial for African governments to foster financial sector development using alternative financial development strategies in anticipation of a flow of remittance that will eventually dry up. |
| Keywords: | Remittance; Financial Development; African Economies; System GMM; Africa |
| JEL: | F37 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/053&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim A. Adekunle (Babcock University, Nigeria); Sheriffdeen A. Tella (Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | African nations have in time, passed over-relied on remittances inflow to augment domestic finances needed for growth. Despite the volume and magnitude of remittances that have to serve as an alternative source of investment financing, African remains mostly underdeveloped. The altruistic motives of sending remittances to Africa are likely to fade with time. In this study, we argued that the altruistic connection that has been the bedrock of sending money to African countries would eventually fade when the older generation passes away. To lean empirical credence to this assertion, we examine the structural linkages and the channels through which remittances predicts variations in financial developmentas a threshold for gauging the future of African economies. We gathered panel data on indices of remittances and financial development for thirty (30) African countries from 2003 through 2017. We employed the dynamic panel system generalised method of moment (dynamic system GMM) estimation procedure to establish a baseline level relationship between the variables of interest. We adjusted for heterogeneity assumptions inherent in ordinary panel estimation and found a basis for the strict orthogonal relationship among the variables. Findings revealed that a percentage increase in remittances inflow has a short-run, positive relationship with financial development in Africa. The result further revealed that the exchange rate negatively influences financial development in Africa. Based on the findings, it is suggested that, while attracting migrants' transfers which can have significant short-run poverty-alleviating advantages, in the long run, it might be more beneficial for African governments to foster financial sector development using alternative financial development strategies in anticipation of a flow of remittance that will eventually dry up. |
| Keywords: | Remittance; Financial Development; African Economies; System GMM; Africa |
| JEL: | F37 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/053&r= |
| By: | Ben Boukai |
| Abstract: | Following Boukai (2021) we present the Generalized Gamma Distribution as a possible RND for modeling European options prices under Heston's (1993) stochastic volatility model. This distribution is seen as especially useful in situations in which the spot's price follows a negatively skewed distribution and hence, Black-Scholes based (i.e. the log-normal distribution) modeling is largely inapt. We apply the Generalized Gamma distribution to modeling current market option data on three large market ETFs, namely the SPY, IWM and QQQ. The current option chain for these three ETFs a shows of a pronounced skew of their volatility `smile' which indicates a likely distortion in the Black-Scholes modeling of such option data. We provide a a thorough modeling of the available option data we have on each ETF (the October 15, 2021 with 63 to expiration) based on the Generalized Gamma Distribution and compared it to the option pricing and RND modeling obtained directly from a well-calibrated Heston's (1993) SV model (both theoretically and empirically, using Monte-Carlo simulations of the spot's price). All three ETFs exhibit negatively skewed distributions which are well-matched with those derived from the Generalized Gamma Distribution. The inadequacy of the Black-Scholes modeling in such instances with negatively skewed distribution is further illustrated by its impact on the hedging factor, delta, and the immediate implications to the retail trader. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07937&r= |
| By: | Sakae Oya; Teruo Nakatsuma |
| Abstract: | Harvey et al. (2010) extended the Bayesian estimation method by Sahu et al. (2003) to a multivariate skew-elliptical distribution with a general skewness matrix, and applied it to Bayesian portfolio optimization with higher moments. Although their method is epochal in the sense that it can handle the skewness dependency among asset returns and incorporate higher moments into portfolio optimization, it cannot identify all elements in the skewness matrix due to label switching in the Gibbs sampler. To deal with this identification issue, we propose to modify their sampling algorithm by imposing a positive lower-triangular constraint on the skewness matrix of the multivariate skew- elliptical distribution and improved interpretability. Furthermore, we propose a Bayesian sparse estimation of the skewness matrix with the horseshoe prior to further improve the accuracy. In the simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed method with the identification constraint can successfully estimate the true structure of the skewness dependency while the existing method suffers from the identification issue. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04019&r= |
| By: | Gupta, Kanika; Gupta, Kashish |
| Abstract: | The policy of Atma-nirbhar Bharat is aimed at making India a self-sufficient and self-generating economy. This self-reliance sentiment was bolstered by anti-China protests due to the Galwan valley standoff. In this context, many Indian nationalists have vouched for the boycott of “Made in China” products especially electronics since they form 50% of Chinese imports and so moving to Vietnam is appreciated as a viable option. In this context, this paper uses the tools of comparative data analytics and constitute a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze the efficacy of substituting Chinese imports with those from Vietnam and make a case for making this substitution possible. |
| Date: | 2021–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bs3f2&r= |
| By: | Yvonne Giesing; Reem Hassan |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the 2011 Egyptian revolution and its aftermath on migration intentions of the Egyptian youth. We measure revolution intensity using the spacial variation in the number of deaths during the revolution from the Statistical Database of the Egyptian Revolution Wikithawra and combine it with data on migration intentions from the Harmonized Survey of Young People in Egypt (HSYPE). Difference-in-difference estimations show that the revolution significantly decreased the migration intentions of youth, especially young men. Single women did not change their migration intentions, mainly due to their financial dependence. Results also show that the youth living in informal slum areas experienced stronger effects. We describe two opposing channels: the insecurity channel, which positively affects migration intentions, and the optimism channel, which negatively affects migration intentions by inducing hope in a better Egyptian future. Youth in rural and slum areas were more sensitive to the optimism channel, due to their higher threshold of insecurity perception. |
| Keywords: | political instability, migration, Egypt, revolution |
| JEL: | D74 F22 O15 P16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9237&r= |
| By: | Petropoulou, Maria; Salanti, Georgia; Rücker, Gerta; Schwarzer, Guido; Moustaki, Irini; Mavridis, Dimitris |
| Abstract: | In a quantitative synthesis of studies via meta-analysis, it is possible that some studies provide a markedly different relative treatment effect or have a large impact on the summary estimate and/or heterogeneity. Extreme study effects (outliers) can be detected visually with forest/funnel plots and by using statistical outlying detection methods. A forward search (FS) algorithm is a common outlying diagnostic tool recently extended to meta-analysis. FS starts by fitting the assumed model to a subset of the data which is gradually incremented by adding the remaining studies according to their closeness to the postulated data-generating model. At each step of the algorithm, parameter estimates, measures of fit (residuals, likelihood contributions), and test statistics are being monitored and their sharp changes are used as an indication for outliers. In this article, we extend the FS algorithm to network meta-analysis (NMA). In NMA, visualization of outliers is more challenging due to the multivariate nature of the data and the fact that studies contribute both directly and indirectly to the network estimates. Outliers are expected to contribute not only to heterogeneity but also to inconsistency, compromising the NMA results. The FS algorithm was applied to real and artificial networks of interventions that include outliers. We developed an R package (NMAoutlier) to allow replication and dissemination of the proposed method. We conclude that the FS algorithm is a visual diagnostic tool that helps to identify studies that are a potential source of heterogeneity and inconsistency. |
| Keywords: | forward search; Cook’s distance; NMAoutlier; outliers; network meta-analysis |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110954&r= |
| By: | Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School); Xu, Yongdeng (Cardiff Business School); Dong, Xue (Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | We carry out an indirect inference test of two versions of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of world trade. One of these, the ‘classical’ model, is well-known as the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model of world trade, in which countries trade homogeneous products in world markets and produce according to their comparative advantage as determined by their resource endowments. The other, the ‘gravity’ model, assumes products are differentiated by geographical origin, so that trade is determined largely by demand and relative prices differing according to distance; trade in turn affects productivity through technology transfer. These two CGE models of world trade behave in very different ways and predict quite different effects for trade policy, underlining the importance of discovering which best fits the facts of international trade. Our findings here are that the classical model fits these facts fairly well in general, while the gravity model is largely strongly rejected by them. |
| Keywords: | Bootstrap, indirect inference, gravity model, classical trade model, trade |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/20&r= |
| By: | Advani, Arun (University of Warwick, CAGE, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and the LSE International Inequalities Institute (III)); Tarrant, Hannah (London School of Economics III) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we review the existing empirical evidence on how individuals respond to the incentives created by a net wealth tax. Variation in the overall magnitude of behavioural responses is substantial: estimates of the elasticity of taxable wealth vary by a factor of 800. We explore three key reasons for this variation: tax design, context, and methodology. We then discuss what is known about the importance of individual margins of response and how these interact with policy choices. Finally, we use our analysis to systematically narrow down and reconcile the range of elasticity estimates. We argue that a well-designed wealth tax would reduce the tax base by 7-17% if levied at a tax rate of 1%. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1368&r= |
| By: | Hory Marie Pierre,; Levieuge Grégory,; Onori Daria. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we demonstrate that the size of the fiscal multiplier depends both on currency mismatch and home bias. Our demonstration is based on a real two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with incomplete and imperfect international financial markets, external debt and financial frictions. We show that if home bias is high, the terms of trade improve following a fiscal stimulus. This reduces the private real debt burden denominated in foreign currency, decreases the external finance premium born by firms, and stimulates investment. Thus, the larger the proportion of firms' debt denominated in foreign currency is, the higher the fiscal multiplier. In contrast, the terms of trade deteriorate when home bias is low. This increases the real debt burden and the external finance premium. Hence, in this case, the fiscal multiplier decreases as the share of firms' debt denominated in foreign currency increases. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Multiplier, Terms of Trade, Currency Mismatch, DSGE Model, Financial Frictions. |
| JEL: | E62 F34 F41 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:813&r= |
| By: | Vuong, Quan-Hoang; Ho, Manh-Toan (Thanh Tay University Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | Vietnam is a fast-growing economy with a population of more than 100 million people. Along with the stable development of the country’s economy, a mindset focusing on making money is also growing in Vietnam. Nonetheless, there has been a noticeable lack of formal education in economics for young people, especially in high school curriculum. Thus, this paper provides a quick look at the issue from the perspective of influential journal articles and books on Vietnam economy. Currently, as the high school curriculum does not include economics, the high school students do not have a formal source of information. Even when they can easily find documents on the Internet, the quick survey suggested a scarcity of trustworthy documents for students. The findings suggest that economics education in Vietnam is currently behind the economic development of the country. |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zk7bq&r= |
| By: | Grupo de Estudios Fiscales y de Equidad; Grupo Contod@s; Centro de Pensamiento de Política Fiscal |
| Abstract: | Con el impacto de la implementación de las políticas contenidas en el proyecto de reforma tributaria Proyecto de inversión social en las condiciones de vida de los colombianos, surge la necesidad de analizar las implicaciones. En consecuencia, el presente documento revisa al detalle el proyecto de ley con un enfoque interseccional e interdisciplinario y presenta ciertas disposiciones deseables para un sistema progresivo y justo que podrían haber sido incluidas. *** From the impact of the implementation of the policies contained in the tax reform project Proyecto de Inversión Social on the living conditions of Colombians, the need to analyze the implications arise. Consequently, this document reviews the project in detail, with an intersectional and interdisciplinary approach and presents certain desirable provisions for a progressive and fair system that could have been included. |
| Keywords: | reforma tributaria, recuperación económica, progresividad |
| JEL: | E62 H25 H26 H50 |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000176:019456&r= |
| By: | Dolan, Paul; Kavetsos, Georgios; Krekel, Christian; Mavridis, Dimitris; Metcalfe, Robert; Senik, Claudia; Szymanski, Stefan; Ziebarth, Nicolas R. |
| Abstract: | Hosting the Olympic Games costs billions of taxpayer dollars. Following a quasi-experimental setting, this paper assesses the intangible impact of the London 2012 Olympics, using a novel panel of 26,000 residents in London, Paris, and Berlin during the summers of 2011, 2012, and 2013. We show that hosting the Olympics increases subjective well-being of the host city's residents during the event, particularly around the times of the opening and closing ceremonies. However, we do not find much evidence for legacy effects. Estimating residents' implicit willingness-to-pay for the event, we do not find that it was worth it for London alone, but a modest well-being impact on the rest of the country would make hosting worth the costs. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well-being; Life satisfaction; Happiness; Intangible effects; Olympic Games; Sport events; Quasi-natural experiment |
| JEL: | I30 I31 I38 L83 |
| Date: | 2019–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101387&r= |
| By: | Advani, Arun (University of Warwick, CAGE, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and the LSE International Inequalities Institute (III)); Bangham, George (Resolution Foundation); Leslie, Jack (Resolution Foundation) |
| Abstract: | We show that wealth inequality in the UK is high and has increased slightly over the past decade as financial asset prices increased in the wake of the financial crisis. But data deficiencies are a major barrier in understanding the true distribution, composition and size of household wealth. The most comprehensive survey of household wealth in the UK does a good job of capturing the vast majority of the wealth distribution, but that nearly £800 billion of wealth held by the very wealthiest UK households is missing. We also find tentative evidence that survey measures of high-wealth families undervalue their assets – our central estimate of the true value of wealth held by households in the UK is 5% higher than the survey data suggests. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1367&r= |
| By: | von Grafenstein, Liza (University of Göttingen); Kumar, Abhijeet (University of Göttingen); Kumar, Santosh (Sam Houston State University); Vollmer, Sebastian (University of Goettingen) |
| Abstract: | Long-term follow-up of early childhood health interventions is important for human capital accumulation. We provide experimental evidence on child health and human capital outcomes from the longer-term follow-up of a school-based nutrition intervention in India. Using panel data, we examine the effectiveness of the use of iron and iodine fortified salt in school lunches to reduce anemia among school children. After four years of treatment, treated children, on average, have higher hemoglobin levels and a lower likelihood of anemia relative to the control group. Interestingly, the intervention did not have any impact on cognitive and educational outcomes. |
| Keywords: | anemia, children, double-fortified salt, cognition, mid-day meal, India |
| JEL: | C93 I15 I18 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14627&r= |
| By: | Takeshi Kato; Yoshinori Hiroi |
| Abstract: | How can we limit wealth disparities while stimulating economic flows in sustainable societies? To examine the link between these concepts, we propose an econophysics asset exchange model with the surplus stock of the wealthy. The wealthy are one of the two exchange agents and have more assets than the poor. Our simulation model converts the surplus contribution rate of the wealthy to a new variable parameter alongside the saving rate and introduces the total exchange (flow) and rank correlation coefficient (metabolism) as new evaluation indexes, adding to the Gini index (disparities), thereby assessing both wealth distribution and the relationships among the disparities, flow, and metabolism. We show that these result in a gamma-like wealth distribution, and our model reveals a trade-off between limiting disparities and vitalizing the market. To limit disparities and increase flow and metabolism, we also find the need to restrain savings and use the wealthy surplus stock. This relationship is explicitly expressed in the new equation introduced herein. The insights gained by uncovering the root of disparities may present a persuasive case for investments in social security measures or social businesses involving stock redistribution or sharing. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07888&r= |
| By: | Epaulard Anne,; Zapha Chloé. |
| Abstract: | A European directive requires Member States to give firms access to preventive restructuring procedures. This paper assesses the interest of a procedure distinct from that for insolvent firms. It is based on the French experience, where a preventive procedure has coexisted with the more common restructuring procedure since 2006. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the Commercial Courts' decisions allows the identification of the causal impact of the conversion from the preventive procedure to the common one on the firm's survival chances. Using an (almost) exhaustive sample of preventive bankruptcy fillings over 2010-2016, we show that conversion reduces the probability of firm survival by 50 p.p., which corresponds to indirect bankruptcy costs of around 20% of the firm assets. Our interpretation is that the low restructuring rate under the common bankruptcy procedure may alarm some of the firm's stakeholders, especially its customers. This in turn aggravates the firm's difficulties and reduces its chances of restructuring under the common procedure. We provide some empirical evidence to support this interpretation. A distinct preventive procedure helps prevent this spiral. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Bankruptcy; Costs of Bankruptcy; Law and Economics; Preventive Restructuring. |
| JEL: | G33 K22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:810&r= |
| By: | Senjaya, Asep Arifin; Sirat, Ni Made; Wirata, I Nyoman; Ratmini, Ni Ketut |
| Abstract: | Dental healthcare is very important since dental and oral hygiene should be maintained. Statistics showed that more than 80% of children in developed and developing countries suffer from dental disease. This study aimed to see the safety of OHIS (Oral Hygiene Index Simplified) in primary school students who got and did not get little dentist cadre training in Bangli Regency in 2019. The study was done in an experimental design: pre and post-test with control design, which was conducted in August-September 2019. The sample in this study is 366 students. The difference in OHIS scores before and after treatment in the control group and treatment group was carried out by the bivariate Mann Whitney U Test. The results of the study showed that before dental health training was conducted, there were 54.3% of primary school students in the treatment group with good OHIS score criteria, and after the training was carried out as many as 98.4% of the students in the treatment group had a good OHIS. Additionally, prior to the training, 57.5% of the control group had fair OHIS criteria score. Then, after the training was carried out, 73.7% of the control group had good OHIS score. Hence, the study concluded that there was a significant difference in the OHIS of primary school students who got little doctor training prior to and after the training. Also, there was a significant difference in the OHIS of the students who did not get such treatment before and after the training. |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:uxbks&r= |
| By: | Marie-Laure Allain (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Claire Chambolle (ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrick Rey (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sabrina Teyssier (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | In a vertical chain in which two rivals invest before contracting with one of two competing suppliers, vertical integration can create holdup problems for the rival. We develop an experiment to test this theoretical prediction in a setup in which suppliers can either precommit ex ante to being greedy or degrade ex post the input they provide to their customer. Our experimental results confirm that vertical integration creates holdup problems. However, vertical integration also generates more departures from theory, which can be explained by bounded rationality and social preferences. |
| Keywords: | Vertical integration,Hold-up,Experimental economics,Bounded rationality,Social preferences |
| Date: | 2021–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03283879&r= |
| By: | Misuraca, Francesco |
| Abstract: | A very respectable theory (K.R. Popper) argues that civilization tends to limit the use of violence and opposes a state of chaos, madness, barbarism and war. It is a philosophical theory that in its empirical validity can find a minimum (not exclusive) support from a triad of arguments. In fact, by limiting the concept of civilization to that field that we can call "law and legal justice", we can have, in this case, three arguments, to argue that law actually tends to limit the use of violence, without being based exclusively on the force (and violence) of the sanction: (i) A philosophical-juridical argument, the theory of “international regimes; (ii) A sociological one, the theory of companies such as "Small World Networks" and (iii) A mathematical one, the theory of deterministic chaos applied to the phenomenon of sanction (also definable as coercive force, deterrence or even "just war"). |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:k9auc&r= |
| By: | Li, Jianghong; Lair, Hannah Kenyon; Schäfer, Jakob; Kendall, Garth |
| Abstract: | Increasing evidence shows that parents’ work schedules in evenings/nights have a negative impact on children's physical and mental health. Few studies examine adolescents and joint parental work schedules. We investigate the association between joint parental work schedules and adolescent mental health and test parental time spent with adolescents and parenting style as potential mediators. We analysed one wave of the Raine Study data, focusing on adolescents who were followed up at ages 16-17 and lived in dual-earner households (N=607). Adolescent mental health is measured in the Child Behavioural Checklist (morbidity, internalising behaviour, externalising behaviour, anxiety/depression). Parental work schedules were defined as: both parents work standard daytime schedules (reference), both parents work evening/night/irregular shifts, fathers work evening/night/irregular shifts - mother daytime schedule, mothers work evening/night/irregular shifts - father daytime schedule. Compared to the reference group, when one or both parents worked evening/night/irregular schedules, there was a significant increase in total morbidity, externalising behaviour and anxiety/depression in adolescents. Fathers' evening/night/irregular schedule was associated with a significant increase in total morbidity and externalising behaviour. Inconsistent parenting partially mediated this association. Mothers' evening/night/irregular schedule was not associated with adolescent CBCL scores. Our findings underscore the importance of fathers' work-family balance for adolescent mental health. |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pa7hz&r= |
| By: | Siena Daniele,; Zago Riccardo. |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the change in the occupational composition of the labor market in favour of non-routine jobs -i.e. job polarization- flattens the price Phillips Curve (PC). Using data from the European Monetary Union and exploiting the fact that job polarization accelerates during recessions, we obtain two results. First, countries experiencing a bigger shift in the occupational structure during a downturn exhibit a flatter PC afterward. Second, the occupational shifts experienced during the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis explain up to a forth of the flattening of the curve in the 2002-2018 period. We reconcile this evidence through a New Keynesian model with unemployment and search and matching frictions. Heterogeneity in the fluidity across segments of the labor market -i.e. differences in the separation and hiring rate across jobs- is the source of PC flattening. |
| Keywords: | Phillips Curve, Job Polarization, Occupational Composition, Monetary Policy,Labor Market Fluidity. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 J21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:819&r= |
| By: | Amadou Barry; Karim Oualkacha; Arthur Charpentier |
| Abstract: | The fixed-effects model estimates the regressor effects on the mean of the response, which is inadequate to summarize the variable relationships in the presence of heteroscedasticity. In this paper, we adapt the asymmetric least squares (expectile) regression to the fixed-effects model and propose a new model: expectile regression with fixed-effects $(\ERFE).$ The $\ERFE$ model applies the within transformation strategy to concentrate out the incidental parameter and estimates the regressor effects on the expectiles of the response distribution. The $\ERFE$ model captures the data heteroscedasticity and eliminates any bias resulting from the correlation between the regressors and the omitted factors. We derive the asymptotic properties of the $\ERFE$ estimators and suggest robust estimators of its covariance matrix. Our simulations show that the $\ERFE$ estimator is unbiased and outperforms its competitors. Our real data analysis shows its ability to capture data heteroscedasticity (see our R package, \url{github.com/AmBarry/erfe}). |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04737&r= |
| By: | Michael L. Anderson; Lucas W. Davis |
| Abstract: | Previous studies of the effect of ridesharing on traffic fatalities have yielded inconsistent, often contradictory conclusions. In this paper we revisit this question using proprietary data from Uber measuring monthly rideshare activity at the Census tract level. Most previous studies are based on publicly-available information about Uber entry dates into US cities, but we show that an indicator variable for whether Uber is available is a poor measure of rideshare activity — for example, it explains less than 3% of the tract-level variation in ridesharing, reflecting the enormous amount of variation both within and across cities. Using entry we find inconsistent and statistically insignificant estimates. However, when we use the more detailed proprietary data, we find a robust negative impact of ridesharing on traffic fatalities. Impacts concentrate during nights and weekends and are robust across a range of alternative specifications. Overall, our results imply that ridesharing has decreased US alcohol-related traffic fatalities by 6.1% and reduced total US traffic fatalities by 4.0%. Based on conventional estimates of the value of statistical life the annual life-saving benefits range from $2.3 to $5.4 billion. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that these benefits may be of similar magnitude to producer surplus captured by Uber shareholders or consumer surplus captured by Uber riders. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 R41 R49 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29071&r= |
| By: | Yassine Boussenna (UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"-) |
| Abstract: | In a knowledge-based economy, and a context of fierce international competition that spares no field. universities as organizations highly dependent on knowledge should pay special attention to it and its management, in such a way that the effective management of this asset is a key factor in building a competitive advantage and became the cornerstone of efforts to improve the performance of the university. In addition, it has long been demonstrated that better knowledge management has a positive impact on organizational performance. However, it is not yet clear how this process is to be achieved in academia and particularly in developing countries such as Morocco. On the other hand, and throughout the literature, several factors affect positively KM initiatives in public organizations and more specifically in universities are discussed. Some of these are the same as those found for private organizations and others are specific to public organizations. Most authors cite the organizational structure. This work has the main objective to verify the moderating role of organizational structure on the intensity of the relationship between the application of knowledge management and organizational performance of Abdelmalek Essaadi University. by collecting the views of the Abdelmalek Essaadi University teacher-researchers, through a hypotheticodeductive reasoning approach and a quantitative working method. Our questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of 88 teacher-researchers from the different institutions of the university under study. The results obtained prove the moderating and positive role of organizational structure, on the intensity of the relationship between the application of the K.M and (Training, research, publication, and governance) as indicators of organizational performance with a degree of impact of 1.1%. |
| Abstract: | Dans une économie fondée sur la connaissance, et dans un contexte de concurrence internationale féroce qui n'épargne aucun domaine, les universités, en tant qu'organisations fortement dépendantes de la connaissance, devraient accorder une attention particulière à celle-ci et à sa gestion, de telle sorte que la gestion efficace de cet actif soit un facteur clé dans la construction d'un avantage concurrentiel et devienne la pierre angulaire des efforts pour améliorer la performance de l'université. En outre, il a été démontré depuis longtemps qu'une meilleure gestion des connaissances a un impact positif sur les performances organisationnelles. Cependant, la manière de réaliser ce processus n'est pas encore claire dans le milieu universitaire et particulièrement dans les pays en développement comme le Maroc. D'autre part, et à travers la littérature, plusieurs facteurs affectant positivement les initiatives de GC dans les organisations publiques et plus spécifiquement dans les universités sont discutés. Certains de ces facteurs sont les mêmes que ceux que l'on retrouve pour les organisations privées et d'autres sont spécifiques aux organisations publiques. La plupart des auteurs citent la structure organisationnelle. Ce travail a pour objectif principal de vérifier le rôle modérateur de la structure organisationnelle sur l'intensité de la relation entre l'application de la gestion des connaissances et la performance organisationnelle de l'université Abdelmalek Essaadi. en recueillant les points de vue des enseignants-chercheurs de l'université Abdelmalek Essaadi, à travers une approche de raisonnement hypothético-déductive et une méthode de travail quantitative. Notre questionnaire a été administré à un échantillon représentatif de 88 enseignants-chercheurs des différentes institutions de l'université étudiée. Les résultats obtenus prouvent le rôle modérateur et positif de la structure organisationnelle, sur l'intensité de la relation entre l'application du K.M et (Formation, recherche, publication, et gouvernance) comme indicateurs de la performance organisationnelle avec un degré d'impact de 1,1%. |
| Keywords: | organizational structure,knowledge management,academic performance,Moroccan universities |
| Date: | 2021–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03274091&r= |
| By: | Yonatan Berman; Mark Kirstein |
| Abstract: | An important but understudied question in economics is how people choose when facing uncertainty in the timing of events. Here we study preferences over time lotteries, in which the payment amount is certain but the payment time is uncertain. Expected discounted utility theory (EDUT) predicts decision makers to be risk-seeking over time lotteries. We explore a normative model of growth-optimality, in which decision makers maximise the long-term growth rate of their wealth. Revisiting experimental evidence on time lotteries, we find that growth-optimality accords better with the evidence than EDUT. We outline future experiments to scrutinise further the plausibility of growth-optimality. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.08366&r= |
| By: | Heloise Agreli Fernandes (emlyon business school); Ruthanne Huising; Marina Peduzzi |
| Abstract: | New technologies including digital health and robotics are driving the evolution of healthcare. At the same time, healthcare systems are transitioning from a multiprofessional model approach of healthcare delivery to an interprofessional model. The concurrence of these two trends may represent an opportunity for leaders in healthcare because both require renegotiation of the complex division of work and enhanced interdependency. This review examines how the introduction of new technologies alters the role boundaries of occupations and interdependencies among health occupations. Based on a scoping review of ethnographic studies of technology implementation in a variety of contexts (from primary care to operating room) and of diverse technologies (from health informatics systems to robotics), we develop the concept of role reconfiguration to capture simultaneous adjustments of multiple, interdependent roles during technological change. Ethnographic and qualitative studies provide rich, detailed accounts of what people actually do and how their work and role is changed (or not) when a new technology arrives. Through a synthesis of these studies, we develop a typology of four types of role reconfiguration: negotiation, clarification, enlargement and restriction. We discuss leadership challenges in managing role reconfiguration and formulate four leadership priorities. We suggest that leaders: redesign roles proactively, paying attention to interdependencies; offer opportunities for collective learning about new technologies; ensure that knowledge of new technologies is distributed across roles and prepare to address resistance. |
| Keywords: | Technology,Leadership |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03278865&r= |
| By: | Mridu Prabal Goswami; Manipushpak Mitra; Debapriya Sen |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes lexicographic preferences over alternatives that are identified by a finite number of attributes. Our characterization is based on two key concepts: a weaker notion of continuity called 'mild continuity' (strict preference order between any two alternatives that are different with respect to every attribute is preserved around their small neighborhoods) and an 'unhappy set' (any alternative outside such a set is preferred to all alternatives inside). Three key aspects of our characterization are: (i) use of continuity arguments, (ii) the stepwise approach of looking at two attributes at a time and (iii) in contrast with the previous literature, we do not impose noncompensation on the preference and consider an alternative weaker condition. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03280&r= |
| By: | Yedavalli, Pavan; Burak Onat, Emin; Peng, Xi; Sengupta, Raja; Waddell, Paul; Bulusu, Vishwanath; Xue, Min |
| Abstract: | Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network?, and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, we develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) MANTA: A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: A granular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian, (3) 퐹퐸3 : A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their exact movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool. As a result, stakeholders in UAM can understand the impacts of critical infrastructure, and subsequently define policies, requirements, and investments needed to support UAM as a viable transportation mode. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5709d8vr&r= |
| By: | Vadim Elenev; Tim Landvoigt; Patrick J. Shultz; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
| Abstract: | Governments around the world have gone on a massive fiscal expansion in response to the Covid crisis, increasing government debt to levels not seen in 75 years. How will this debt be repaid? What role do conventional and unconventional monetary policy play? We investigate debt sustainability in a New Keynesian model with an intermediary sector, realistic fiscal and monetary policy, endogenous convenience yields, and substantial risk premia. When conventional monetary policy is constrained by the ZLB during an economic crisis, increased government spending and lower tax revenue lead to a large rise in government debt and raise the risk of future tax increases. We find that quantitative easing (QE), forward guidance, and an expansion in government discretionary spending all contribute to lowering debt/GDP ratio and reducing this fiscal risk. A transitory QE policy deployed during a crisis stimulates aggregate demand. |
| JEL: | E1 E12 E13 E2 E31 E32 E37 E4 E42 E43 E44 E6 E62 E63 G12 G18 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29129&r= |
| By: | Tal Gross; Adam Sacarny; Maggie Shi; David Silver |
| Abstract: | We study a 2008 policy reform in which Medicare revised its hospital payment system to better reflect patients’ severity of illness. We construct a simulated instrument that predicts a hospital’s policy-induced change in reimbursement using pre-reform patients and post-reform rules. The reform led to large persistent changes in Medicare payment rates across hospitals. Hospitals that faced larger gains in Medicare reimbursement increased the volume of Medicare patients they treated. The estimates imply a volume elasticity of approximately unity. To accommodate greater volume, hospitals increased nurse employment, but also lowered length of stay, with ambiguous effects on quality. |
| JEL: | I18 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29023&r= |
| By: | NAUSHEEN, NIZAMI |
| Abstract: | Workers are the backbone of an industry as well as an economy. Accelerating growth requires ensuring, understanding and managing life of workers when they are at work. This paper analyses the meaning and importance of safe work in Information Technology industry where work is rendered in apparently safe environment. IT industry has been chosen as it apparently offers highly remunerative packages but compromises on some of the essentials of decent work. One of the dimensions of decent work is safe work. In this paper, work safety has been measured on the basis of rudimentary statistical tools and non-parametric tests. Primary data collected from 272 IT employees by using snowball sampling technique and a well-designed questionnaire have been used for developing Safe work Index (SWI) on the lines of decent work agenda of the International Labour Office. Findings reveal deficit of safe work in IT companies and deteriorating health status of IT employees which has implications for the social health of the nation. The nature of work in IT industry which requires longer hours at work, constant sitting posture and working on computer screens has started playing havoc among the employees of younger age group and calls for attention for provision of decent ergonomic furniture and timely breaks from a sitting posture. The paper concludes with suggestive measures for the same. |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:24ea3&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article presents the “Stra.Tech.Man approach” (strategy-technology-management synthesis) as the basis for creating a “Stra.Tech.Man Scorecard,” which can be used for the strategic audit of every socio-economic organization. After reviewing the literature on strategic control and strategic audit, the study proceeds with a critical appraisal of Kaplan and Norton’s balanced scorecard model and presents the theoretical foundations of the Stra.Tech.Man approach. It composes a first conceptual outline of the Stra.Tech.Man Scorecard, which can function as an integrated monitoring tool, exploring and describing the evolution of “physiologies” of the studied socio-economic organizations (firms). It concludes that the formal balanced scorecard approach: (a) has been applied mainly to larger and more sophisticated organizations, (b) does not offer a compound understanding of the central dimensions of strategy, technology, and management that can be linked in an integrated way to the financial results, (c) leaves relatively unspecified many critical aspects of a firm’s choices, especially in strategy articulation, technology selection, and management implementation, (d) does not create complete profiles for the firms’ evolutionary physiologies. In contrast, the Stra.Tech.Man Scorecard: (i) does not have as a prerequisite any pre-existing systematic performance measurement framework in the organization and, therefore, it is not limited by any firm size, type, or physiology, (ii) it links in an evolutionary way the “core” qualitative dimensions of strategy, technology and management (Stra.Tech.Man audit) with the quantitative financial results of the organization, (iii) it can and has been used as an integrated analysis instrument by taking into account more adequately the evolutionary dimensions of the meso-environment of organizations besides the micro-level of analysis which the balanced scorecard is primarily associated. |
| Keywords: | Balanced Scorecard; Stra.Tech.Man Approach; Stra.Tech.Man Scorecard; Strategic Control; Strategic Audit; Stra.Tech.Man Audit |
| JEL: | L10 L20 |
| Date: | 2021–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_003&r= |
| By: | Johannes Stroebel; Jeffrey Wurgler |
| Abstract: | We survey 861 finance academics, professionals, and public sector regulators and policy economists about climate finance topics. They identify regulatory risk as the top climate risk to businesses and investors over the next five years, but they view physical risks as the top risk over the next 30 years. By an overwhelming margin, respondents believe that asset prices underestimate climate risks. We also tabulate opinions about the correlation between growth and climate change; social discount rates appropriate for projects that mitigate the effects of climate change; most influential forces for reducing climate risks; and, most important research topics. |
| JEL: | G12 G14 G32 H43 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29136&r= |
| By: | Peguero, Felipe; Somarriba, Eduardo; Solano-Cordoba, Moises E.; Alvarez, Diana; Zapata, Samuel D.; Cerda B., Rolando H.; Sinclair, Fergus |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312634&r= |
| By: | Chen, Yen Tzu; Liu, Che Hung; Chen, Ho Ming |
| Abstract: | Online test websites can provide a more convenient and efficient dynamic learning approach and personalized learning services, which is one of the important approaches to digital learning. However, the usability of online test websites affects users’ learning efficacy. This study explored the impact of the usability of online test websites on users, and the results can help website operators seeking to improve the websites’ usability. Based on the relevant literature, this study synthesized three major metrics of the usability of online test websites and summarized typical work priorities of such websites to design usability test items. The study considered one online test website: A Remedial Education Institution for Learners to Take Civil Service Examination. The results show that, with respect to usability, the website still has quite a few deficiencies that affect users’ effectiveness and efficiency when using the website and cause users to be less satisfied with the website. Based on these results, this study offered four specific recommendations for improving effectiveness, efficiency, and satisfaction in terms of the usability of the online test website: enhancing interaction and instructions, following the inertia of interface use, simplifying information organization, and diversifying information content. |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:da3bx&r= |
| By: | Dirk Bergemann (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Marco Ottaviani (Department of Economics, Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | As large amounts of data become available and can be communicated more easily and processed more e¤ectively, information has come to play a central role for economic activity and welfare in our age. This essay overviews contributions to the industrial organization of information markets and nonmarkets, while attempting to maintain a balance between foundational frameworks and more recent developments. We start by reviewing mechanism-design approaches to modeling the trade of information. We then cover ratings, predictions, and recommender systems. We turn to forecasting contests, prediction markets, and other institutions designed for collecting and aggregating information from decentralized participants. Finally, we discuss science as a prototypical information nonmarket with participants who interact in a non-anonymous way to produce and disseminate information. We aim to make the reader familiar with the central notions and insights in this burgeoning literature and also point to some open critical questions that future research will have to address. |
| Keywords: | Information, Data, Data Intermediaries, Information Markets, Information Non-markets, Science |
| JEL: | D82 D83 D84 G14 L86 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2296&r= |
| By: | Martin S. Eichenbaum; Sergio Rebelo; Mathias Trabandt |
| Abstract: | We argue that the Covid epidemic disproportionately affected the economic well-being and health of poor people. To disentangle the forces that generated this outcome, we construct a model that is consistent with the heterogeneous impact of the Covid recession on low- and high-income people. According to our model, two thirds of the inequality in Covid deaths reflect pre-existing inequality in comorbidity rates and access to quality health care. The remaining third, stems from the fact that low-income people work in occupations where the risk of infection is high. Our model also implies that the rise in income inequality generated by the Covid epidemic reflects the nature of the goods that low-income people produce. Finally, we assess the health-income trade-offs associated with fiscal transfers to the poor and mandatory containment policies. |
| JEL: | E1 H0 I1 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29063&r= |
| By: | Riddell, Chris (University of Waterloo); Riddell, W. Craig (University of British Columbia, Vancouver) |
| Abstract: | The Income Maintenance Experiments have received renewed attention due to growing international interest in a Basic Income. Proponents viewed a Negative Income Tax as a replacement for traditional welfare with stronger work incentives and reduced poverty. However, existing labor supply estimates for single parents are uniformly negative. We re-assess the experimental evidence and find randomization failure in two NITs (Gary and Seattle). In Denver and Manitoba, we find a positive labor supply response for those on welfare prior to random assignment. Our results provide strong evidence that a NIT can increase work activity among single parents on welfare. |
| Keywords: | negative income tax, welfare, income maintenance experiments, labour supply |
| JEL: | C9 I38 J2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14585&r= |
| By: | Lundsgaarde, Erik |
| Abstract: | European Union (EU) funding for United Nations (UN) organisations has expanded significantly over the last two decades. The EU's partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is an important example of EU-UN cooperation, and UNDP was the fourth-largest UN recipient of European Commission funds in 2018. Against the backdrop of UN and EU reforms that aim to strengthen multilateralism and promote more integrated development cooperation approaches, this paper outlines priority areas in EU-UNDP cooperation and modes of cooperation. The term 'added value' provides an entry point for identifying the rationales for EU funding to UNDP. In EU budgetary discussions, added value is a concept used to inform decisions such as whether to take action at the EU or member state levels or which means of implementation to select. These choices extend to the development cooperation arena, where the term relates to the division of labour agenda and features in assessments of effectiveness. The paper explores three perspectives to consider the added value of funding choices within the EU-UNDP partnership relating to the division of labour between EU institutions and member states, the characteristics of UNDP as an implementation channel and the qualities of the EU as a funder. On the first dimension, the large scale of EU funding for UNDP sets it apart from most member states, though EU funding priorities display elements of specialisation as well as similar emphases to member states. On the second dimension, UNDP's large scope of work, its implementation capacities and accountability standards are attractive to the EU, but additional criteria - including organisational cost effectiveness - can alter the perception of added value. Finally, the scale of EU funding and the possibility to engage in difficult country contexts are key elements of the added value of the EU as a funder. However, the EU's non-core funding emphasis presents a challenge for the UN resource mobilisation agenda calling for greater flexibility in organisational funding. Attention to these multiple dimensions of added value can inform future EU choices on how to orient engagement with UNDP to reinforce strengths of the organisation and enable adaptations envisaged in UN reform processes. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:202021&r= |
| By: | Thierry Kamionka (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Pauline Leveneur (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | We investigate interactions between individual's position in the labor market and health status. We jointly model health, employment and working hours using a dynamic model. We estimate a dynamic multivariate model with random effects for the period going from 1991 to 2009 and using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). Instrumental variables are used. We consider interactions of the error terms of the model using a vector autoregressive process of the order 1. A shock on one component of the error term can have an impact on the distribution of the error term the next period of time. Individual effects-one for each equation-can be correlated. The model is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood estimator. We consider the initial conditions problem. We find that joint dynamics of health and employment is determined by the interactions of their past realizations as well as by the individual's socioeconomic characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Employment dynamics,Self-assessed health,Working hours,General physician visits,Panel data,IV estimation |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03307591&r= |
| By: | Majeed, Fahd; Khanna, Madhu; Miao, Ruiqing; Blanc Betes, Elena; Hudiburg, Tara; DeLucia, Evan |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty, Environmental Economics and Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312883&r= |
| By: | Nomikos, William George |
| Abstract: | This essay challenges theoretical and empirical arguments about peacebuilding effectiveness that put the state at the center of United Nations peace operations. We argue that state-centric UN peacebuilding operations inadvertently incentivize local-level violence in post-conflict zones. We demonstrate that when the UN supports central governments it unintentionally empowers non-professionalized militaries, paramilitaries, and warlords to settle local scores. Armed violence against civilians in turn triggers a vicious cycle of reprisals and counter-reprisals. As an alternative to state-centric peacebuilding operations that incentivize local violence, we suggest that the UN should shift strategic resources away from central governments and toward UN policing, support of traditional and religious authorities, and the training of local security institutions. |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8h6fs&r= |
| By: | Nomikos, William George |
| Abstract: | What explains the legitimacy of state institutions in areas of limited statehood? In order to ensure effective governance, it is critical for states with limited capacities to establish the legitimacy of state authority. Yet, the sources of institutional legitimacy are not well understood in areas of limited statehood where legitimacy is often the only mechanism for the state to ensure compliance and cooperation of citizens. This article argues that in areas of limited statehood a state’s legitimacy among the domestic population crucially depends on whether that population feels safe and secure. We test this argument with an original survey fielded with 2,000 respondents from Liberia using multilevel modelling. Our results demonstrate that security perceptions of the population play a key role in strengthening state legitimacy at both the community and county level. We also find that explicit attribution of security to specific institutions is key for linking more effective governance with more legitimacy. However, security alone is not enough to acquire state legitimacy. Our analysis also reveals that states gain legitimacy when locals perceive institutions as just and elections as free and fair in addition to feeling secure. The results demonstrate that the sources of state legitimacy are multifaceted and that the provision of security is an important component thereof. Thereby, our study speaks to lates theoretical debates on the various sources of state legitimacy and contributes novel empirical evidence. |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hd28z&r= |
| By: | Berliner, Daniel; Ingrams, Alex; Piotrowski, Suzanne |
| Abstract: | How does membership in transnational multistakeholder institutions shape states’ domestic governance? We complement traditional compliance-based approaches with a process model, focusing on the independent effects of processes associated with institutional membership, separate from commitments and compliance themselves. These effects can be driven by iterative and participatory institutional features, which are increasingly prevalent in global governance. We apply this model to the Open Government Partnership (OGP), a transnational multistakeholder initiative with nearly 80 member countries, featuring highly flexible commitments and weak enforcement. Although commitments and compliance have generally been limited, a compliance-focused approach alone cannot account for myriad other consequences globally and domestically, driven by the iterative and participatory features associated with membership. We demonstrate these at work in a case study of Mexico’s OGP membership, which contributed to the spread of new norms and policy models, new political resources and opportunities for reformers, and new linkages and coalitions. |
| Keywords: | Internal OA fund |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111060&r= |
| By: | Paul Lavery; José María Serena Garralda; Marina-Eliza Spaliara |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of private equity buyouts on the export activity of target firms. We exploit data on UK firms over the 2004-2017 period, and use difference-in-differences estimations on matched target versus non-target firms. Following private equity buyouts, non-exporting firms are more likely to begin exporting, and target firms are likewise more likely to increase their value of exports and their export intensity. Evidence from split-sample analysis further suggests that these patterns are consistent with private equity investors relaxing financial constraints and inducing productivity improvements. |
| Keywords: | private equity buyouts, exporting, financial constraints, transactions |
| JEL: | G34 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:961&r= |
| By: | Sterkens, Philippe (Ghent University); Caers, Ralf (KU Leuven); De Couck, Marijke (Free University of Brussels); Geamanu, Michael (Ghent University); Van Driessche, Victor (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | Earlier research has associated spelling errors in resumes with reduced hiring chances. However, the analysis of hiring penalties due to spelling errors has thus far been restricted to white-collar occupations and relatively high numbers of errors per resume. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying the spelling error penalty have remained unclear. To fill these gaps in the peerreviewed literature, we conducted a scenario experiment with 445 genuine recruiters. Results show that, compared to error-free resumes, hiring penalties are being inflicted for both error-laden resumes (18.5 percent points lower interview probability) and resumes with fewer errors (7.3 percent points lower interview probability). Furthermore, we find substantial heterogeneity in penalties inflicted based on various applicant, job and participant characteristics. About half of the spelling error penalty can be explained by the perception that applicants who make spelling errors have lower interpersonal skills (9.0%), conscientiousness (12.1%) and mental abilities (32.2%). |
| Keywords: | resumes, signalling, hiring experiments, spelling errors |
| JEL: | C91 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14614&r= |
| By: | Berthou Antoine,; Mayer Thierry,; Mésonnier Jean-Stéphane. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that exporters react more strongly to a cut in tariffs by a distant country when their banks have already been specializing in funding exports to this country. To make our case, we build upon a theoretical model where an informational advantage provided by the exporter's bank results in a lower distribution cost in the destination country. We test the implications of this model for French exporters using the 2011 free trade agreement between the European Union and South-Korea as a quasi-natural experiment. We measure a bank's specialization in Korea using granular information on bank-firm credit lines and firm-level exports in the years preceding the agreement. We assess how customers of different banks react to this trade liberalization episode using detailed information on the bilateral tariff cuts and disaggregated data on French export flows at the firm-product level. We find robust evidence that the specialized lenders help exporters to respond more strongly to changes in tariffs. The effect is strong for all firms along the extensive margin, but only for less productive exporters along the intensive margin. |
| Keywords: | Trade Elasticities, Bank Specialization, Trade Liberalization. |
| JEL: | F14 G21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:814&r= |
| By: | Punzo Chiara,; Rossi Lorenza |
| Abstract: | We analyse the redistribution channel of a money-financed versus debt-financed fiscal stimulus in a Borrower-Saver frammework. The redistribution channel is larger when we consider a money-financed fiscal stimulus. However, it generates also larger welfare losses than a debt-financed fiscal stimulus, particularly in a borrower-saver framework due to the additional presence of the consumption gap with respect to a representative agent model. |
| Keywords: | Borrowers-Savers; Fiscal Stimuli; Welfare; Fiscal Multipliers |
| JEL: | E3 E5 E62 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:818&r= |
| By: | Anjali Adukia; Alex Eble; Emileigh Harrison; Hakizumwami Birali Runesha; Teodora Szasz |
| Abstract: | Books shape how children learn about society and social norms, in part through the representation of different characters. To better understand the messages children encounter in books, we introduce new artificial intelligence methods for systematically converting images into data. We apply these image tools, along with established text analysis methods, to measure the representation of race, gender, and age in children’s books commonly found in US schools and homes over the last century. We find that more characters with darker skin color appear over time, but "mainstream" award-winning books, which are twice as likely to be checked out from libraries, persistently depict more lighter-skinned characters even after conditioning on perceived race. Across all books, children are depicted with lighter skin than adults. Over time, females are increasingly present but are more represented in images than in text, suggesting greater symbolic inclusion in pictures than substantive inclusion in stories. Relative to their growing share of the US population, Black and Latinx people are underrepresented in the mainstream collection; males, particularly White males, are persistently overrepresented. Our data provide a view into the "black box" of education through children’s books in US schools and homes, highlighting what has changed and what has endured. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J15 J16 Z1 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29123&r= |
| By: | Todd Honeycutt; Kara Contreary; Gina Livermore |
| Abstract: | This report offers a deep dive into the 12 papers developed for the SSI Youth Solutions project. It presents and contrasts their characteristics, potential strengths and limitations, and other factors that might guide policymakers, advocates, and other stakeholders in deciding which might be best to pursue. |
| Keywords: | Supplemental Security Income, youth with disabilities, employment, program and policy interventions |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:562f8191ae6a4705b5028b47399519f7&r= |
| By: | Catherine Locatelli (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Analyse de l'émergence d'une confrontation Etats-Unis-Russie sur le marché européen et asiatique en matière de gaz naturel |
| Date: | 2021–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03279185&r= |
| By: | Fix, Blair (York University) |
| Abstract: | For more than a century, political economists have sought to understand the nature of capital. The prevailing wisdom is that there must be something ‘real’ — some productive capacity — that underpins capitalized values. This thinking, I argue, is a mistake. Building on Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler’s theory of capital as power, I argue that capitalization is an ideology. It is a quantitative ritual for converting earnings into present value. Although the ritual is arbitrary, it gives rise to astonishing empirical regularities, reviewed here. |
| Date: | 2021–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cf5xv&r= |
| By: | Pluess, Karen; Sutcliffe, Katy |
| Abstract: | There are increasing calls to re-establish the role and responsibility of banks towards society to repair trust and enhance financial stability. Through in-depth interviews with senior investment bankers, this study asks what bankers themselves think about the corporate (i.e. the industry’s core business), social (i.e. its moral responsibilities to wider society), and employee (i.e. bankers’ own feelings of purposefulness) purposes of the investment banking industry. Existing research tells us that there are significant reciprocal benefits to organisations, employees, and society at large when the three are aligned. The study’s findings suggest that while there have been important shifts in corporate and social purposes over time, bankers remain sceptical about their banks’ underlying motives and this has resulted in multiple disconnects. Perhaps surprising, the study finds that meaningful work that is also socially focused is something that investment bankers are seeking in some way. These insights should prompt banks to ensure that social purposes reflect and align with their corporate purposes; to move beyond rhetoric and virtue-signalling to action; and to help employees identify their contribution to it all. |
| Date: | 2021–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:uwejb&r= |
| By: | David Hao Zhang; Paul S. Willen |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the assessment of racial discrimination in mortgage pricing, we introduce a new methodology for comparing the menus of options borrowers face based on their choices. First, we show how standard regression-based approaches for assessing discrimination in the menus context can lead to misleading and contradictory results. Second, we propose a new methodology that is robust these problems based on relatively weak economic assumptions. More specifically, we use pairwise dominance relationships in choices supplemented by restrictions on the range of plausible menus to define (1) a test statistic for equality in menus and (2) a difference in menus (DIM) metric for assessing whether one group of borrowers would prefer to switch to another group's menus. Our statistics are robust to arbitrary heterogeneity in borrower preferences across racial groups, are sharp in terms of identification, and can be efficiently computed using Optimal Transport methods. Third, we devise a new approach for inference on the value of Optimal Transport problems based on directional differentiation. Fourth, we use our methodology to estimate mortgage pricing differentials by race on a novel data set linking 2018--2019 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to Optimal Blue rate locks. We find robust evidence for mortgage pricing differentials by race, particularly among Conforming mortgage borrowers who are relatively creditworthy. |
| JEL: | C12 G21 G51 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29142&r= |
| By: | George Abuselidze; Rusudan Zoidze |
| Abstract: | In the research there is reviewed the peculiarities of the formation of tax revenues of the state budget, analysis of the recent past and present periods of tax system in Georgia, there is reviewed the influence of existing factors on the revenues, as well as the role and the place of direct and indirect taxes in the state budget revenues. In addition, the measures of stimulating action on formation of tax revenues and their impact on the state budget revenues are established. At the final stage, there are examples of foreign developed countries, where the tax system is perfectly developed, where various stimulating measures are successfully stimulating and consequently it promotes mobilization of the amount of money required in the state budget. The exchange of foreign experience is very important for Georgia, the existing tax model that is based on foreign experience is greatly successful. For the formation of tax policy, it is necessary to take into consideration all the factors affecting on it, a complex analysis of the tax system and the steps that will be really useful and perspective for our country. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03027&r= |
| By: | Rui (Aruhan) Shi |
| Abstract: | This exercise offers an innovative learning mechanism to model economic agent’s decision-making process using a deep reinforcement learning algorithm. In particular, this AI agent is born in an economic environment with no information on the underlying economic structure and its own preference. I model how the AI agent learns from square one in terms of how it collects and processes information. It is able to learn in real time through constantly interacting with the environment and adjusting its actions accordingly (i.e., online learning). I illustrate that the economic agent under deep reinforcement learning is adaptive to changes in a given environment in real time. AI agents differ in their ways of collecting and processing information, and this leads to different learning behaviours and welfare distinctions. The chosen economic structure can be generalised to other decision-making processes and economic models. |
| Keywords: | expectation formation, exploration, deep reinforcement learning, bounded rationality, stochastic optimal growth |
| JEL: | C45 D83 D84 E21 E70 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9255&r= |
| By: | David R. Agrawal; Ronald B. Davies; Sara LaLumia; Nadine Riedel; Kimberley Ann Scharf |
| Abstract: | As the COVID-19 pandemic has shaped public policies and government finances, it has also influenced the topics that public finance economists are researching. Because the 2020 International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF) Congress featured papers that were submitted prior to the start of the pandemic, the Congress allows us to reflect on the state of research prior to the pandemic’s shock to both fiscal policies and our worldview. In this article, the Editors of International Tax and Public Finance (ITAX), reflect on interesting papers that were presented at this internationally representative conference in public economics. The exercise provides insight on where the field of public economics was heading prior to the pandemic and will provide a yardstick to see how the field evolves in the coming years. |
| Keywords: | public economics, public finance, taxation, expenditures |
| JEL: | H10 H20 H30 H40 H50 H60 H70 H80 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9240&r= |
| By: | Cheng, Nieyan; Li, Minghao; Liu, Pengfei; Luo, Qianfeng; Tang, Chuan; Zhang, Wendong |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312676&r= |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Magnot (LAREMA - Laboratoire Angevin de Recherche en Mathématiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UA - Université d'Angers); Jiří Mazurek; Viera Cernanova (Trnava University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate an application of a mathematically robust minimization methodthe gradient method-to the consistencization problem of a pairwise comparisons (PC) matrix. Our approach sheds new light on the notion of a priority vector and leads naturally to the definition of instant priority vectors. We describe a sample family of inconsistency indicators based on various ways of taking an average value, which extends the inconsistency indicator based on the "sup"-norm. We apply this family of inconsistency indicators both for additive and multiplicative PC matrices to show that the choice of various inconsistency indicators lead to non-equivalent consistencization procedures. |
| Keywords: | priority vector,pairwise comparisons,inconsistency indicator,gradient method |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03313878&r= |
| By: | Moshe Babaioff; Ruty Mundel; Noam Nisan |
| Abstract: | In the early $20^{th}$ century, Pigou observed that imposing a marginal cost tax on the usage of a public good induces a socially efficient level of use as an equilibrium. Unfortunately, such a "Pigouvian" tax may also induce other, socially inefficient, equilibria. We observe that this social inefficiency may be unbounded, and study whether alternative tax structures may lead to milder losses in the worst case, i.e. to a lower price of anarchy. We show that no tax structure leads to bounded losses in the worst case. However, we do find a tax scheme that has a lower price of anarchy than the Pigouvian tax, obtaining tight lower and upper bounds in terms of a crucial parameter that we identify. We generalize our results to various scenarios that each offers an alternative to the use of a public road by private cars, such as ride sharing, or using a bus or a train. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12023&r= |
| By: | Marianne Bertrand; Chang-Tai Hsieh; Nick Tsivanidis |
| Abstract: | India's Industrial Disputes Act (IDA) of 1947 requires firm with more than 100 workers to pay large costs if they shrink their employment. Since the early 2000s, large Indian manufacturing firms have increasingly relied on contract workers who are not subject to the IDA. By 2015, contract workers accounted for 38% of total employment at firms with more than 100 workers compared to 20% in 2000. Over the same time period, the thickness of the right tail of the firm size distribution in formal Indian manufacturing plants increased, the average product of labor for large firms declined, the job creation rate for large firms increased, and the probability that large firms introduce new products rose. We provide evidence that these outcomes were caused by an increased reliance on contract labor among large establishments. A model of firm growth subject to firing costs suggests the rise of contract labor increased TFP in Indian manufacturing by 7.6%, occurring all through a one-time reduction in misallocation between large and small firms with negligible change in the long-run growth rate. |
| JEL: | J23 J4 J5 O0 O4 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29151&r= |
| By: | Hope Corman; Dhaval M. Dave; Nancy Reichman; Ofira Schwartz-Soicher |
| Abstract: | This study estimated the effects of welfare reform in the 1990s, which permanently restructured and contracted the cash assistance system in the U.S., on food insecurity—a fundamental form of hardship—of the next generation of households. An implicit goal underlying welfare reform was the disruption of an assumed intergenerational transmission of disadvantage; however, little is known about the effects of welfare reform on the well-being of the next generation. Using intergenerational data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a variation on a difference-in-differences framework, this study exploits 3 sources of variation in childhood exposure to welfare reform: (1) risk of exposure across birth cohorts; (2) variation of exposure within cohorts because different states implemented welfare reform in different years; and (3) variation between individuals with the same exposure who were more likely and less likely to rely on welfare. We found that exposure to welfare reform led to decreases in food insecurity of the next generation of households, by about 10% for a 5-year increase in exposure, with stronger effects for women, individuals exposed for longer durations during childhood, individuals exposed in early childhood (0-5 years), and individuals whose mothers had a high school education (versus less). |
| JEL: | H53 I14 I3 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29054&r= |
| By: | R. Lamb, Austin |
| Abstract: | Japanese senior care demands have seen significant growth over the last several decades from a dramatic increase in the senior demographic (+65 in age), a high senior concentration in the current Japanese society brought about by age longevity, and the improved quality standard of care and greater accessibility by the governments revision of the Long‐term Care Insurance (LTCI) program. The supply side is also suffering from both a decreasing population growth of youth category (14 and younger) and a static graduation rate of new nursing that is not growing commensurate with the demand. The government has begun to understand these detrimental factors and further revised national immigration policy to categorize senior care aid workers as skilled labor. The growth in demand for senior care services, the static domestic labor structure, and the new leniency of immigration policies has created various opportunities for foreign workers who are considering Japan as their new country of residence. The greater inflow of migrants into Japan could be a solution that can bring the country back to an acceptable level of prosperity and high quality‐of‐life for the senior population that the nation once had in the stable‐growth period.However, there is a significant difference between attracting foreign migrants to the Japanese senior care industry and retaining the migrants once they are working in their full capacity. This paper introduces survey research to identify if community survey participants agree with migration in senior care and which factors affect their perception of receiving care from foreign caregivers. The survey includes 563 citizens within 12 different cities chosen randomly within Page | 1 Hiroshima, Shimane, and Yamaguchi prefectures. Their feedback on the opinion has highlighted several weaknesses in society that can be mitigated through appropriate public policy revision, community development, and legal protections. It is important to react in the short term to reverse the negative trends; especially, since foreigners are becoming harder to attract due to the stagnation economic conditions of Japan and the continued growth of the senior citizen base in need of qualified care. |
| Keywords: | Japanese immigration policy, senior care, foreign workers, rural communities, factors, perception, J20, F22 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000184&r= |
| By: | Paul J.J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)) |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s, distributional issues have once again become a focus of analysis in OECD countries and elsewhere. It has, however, become less common in the social sciences to engage in vigorous scientific debate about important phenomena and theses or to engage critically with different scientific approaches. This has led to the existence of different analytical findings in the social sciences - for example, in the fields of Economics and Sociology - that at times completely contradict each other; interestingly, this also applies to questions of inequality analysis. Based on a knowledge of key statistics and regression or simulation analyses, as well as thanks to theorems of foreign trade theory, a differentiated picture of inequality developments in the context of globalization has been formed in Economics. However, some experts in the field of Sociology in Germany, such as Andreas Reckwitz in his book "The Society of Singularities" , offer contributions to the debate which lack any recognizable theoretical foundation or empirical evidence on such important topics as economic-cultural rise and decline or inequality dynamics. In turn, certain influential actors in the political sphere have been demonstrably influenced by unscientific passages in Reckwitz's book, so that his very questionable claims regarding inequality dynamics - under the heading of a "paternoster effect" could have a destabilizing effect in national politics in Germany, supranational EU politics and even beyond. Policies that do not rely on theory- and evidence-based statements in important fields, but rather on untested assumptions, contribute to the "risk society" : endangering the stability and economic prosperity of all strata. It seems desirable to work on the basis of theory and evidence-based foundations in science and to pay careful attention to empirical results in the scientific and political communities; in doing so, also to take critical note of the current Reckwitz debate, which has also been somewhat controversial within the field of Sociology. Moreover, the approach of using lifetime effective income for the purposes of international comparison is both important and innovative. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, global economy, technology, singularity, critical rationalism, evidence, paternoster effect |
| JEL: | D63 F00 O1 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei303&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Kapaltzoglou, Fotein (Department of International and European Studies, School of Law) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing regulatory transformation towards a single European electricity market started several years ago. The rationale of this transformation is that the liberalisation of monopolistic energy structures should lead to the building of sustainable and flexible energy ecosystems, through an energy policy that sets goals in line with the requirements of our epoch, such as sustainable development, energy security, and the promotion of renewable energy sources. In this context, the liberalisation of the electricity market in Greece is explored, which is a complicated case in terms of development as it has only recently begun to exit from a long-term socio-economic crisis and strict adjustment programs. The concepts of energy market liberalisation, energy ecosystems, and energy policy are presented and compared to the main directions of the EU institutional environment and the evolution of the political and institutional framework of Greece. In Greece, an attempt has been made in recent years to liberalise the electricity market, which is hindered for a long time by socio-economic forces favoured by the monopolistic system of the market. This liberalisation process is also an opportunity for the country to move towards enhancing the structures that can lead to faster and more sustainable development and to maintain the pace of “coupling” with the most developed energy economies of Europe. |
| Keywords: | Energy Market Liberalisation; Electricity Market Liberalisation; Energy Business Ecosystem; Energy Policy; EU Energy Packages; Greek Energy System |
| JEL: | Q40 Q43 Q49 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_002&r= |
| By: | Muhammed Taher Al-Mudafer; Benjamin Avanzi; Greg Taylor; Bernard Wong |
| Abstract: | Neural networks offer a versatile, flexible and accurate approach to loss reserving. However, such applications have focused primarily on the (important) problem of fitting accurate central estimates of the outstanding claims. In practice, properties regarding the variability of outstanding claims are equally important (e.g., quantiles for regulatory purposes). In this paper we fill this gap by applying a Mixture Density Network ("MDN") to loss reserving. The approach combines a neural network architecture with a mixture Gaussian distribution to achieve simultaneously an accurate central estimate along with flexible distributional choice. Model fitting is done using a rolling-origin approach. Our approach consistently outperforms the classical over-dispersed model both for central estimates and quantiles of interest, when applied to a wide range of simulated environments of various complexity and specifications. We further extend the MDN approach by proposing two extensions. Firstly, we present a hybrid GLM-MDN approach called "ResMDN". This hybrid approach balances the tractability and ease of understanding of a traditional GLM model on one hand, with the additional accuracy and distributional flexibility provided by the MDN on the other. We show that it can successfully improve the errors of the baseline ccODP, although there is generally a loss of performance when compared to the MDN in the examples we considered. Secondly, we allow for explicit projection constraints, so that actuarial judgement can be directly incorporated in the modelling process. Throughout, we focus on aggregate loss triangles, and show that our methodologies are tractable, and that they out-perform traditional approaches even with relatively limited amounts of data. We use both simulated data -- to validate properties, and real data -- to illustrate and ascertain practicality of the approaches. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.07924&r= |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of what types of values, especially in regards to obedience vs. independence, families impart to their children and how these values interact with social mobility. In the model, obedience is a useful characteristic for employers, especially when wages are low, because independent workers require more incentives (when wages are high, these incentives are automatic). Hence, in low-wage environments, low-income families will impart values of obedience to their children to prevent disadvantaging them in the labor market. To the extent that independence is useful for entrepreneurial activities, this then depresses their social mobility. High-income and privileged parents, on the other hand, always impart values of independence, since they expect that their children can enter into higher-income entrepreneurial (or managerial) activities thanks to their family resources and privileges. I also discuss how political activity can be hampered when labor market incentives encourage greater obedience and how this can generate multiple steady states with different patterns of social hierarchy and mobility. |
| JEL: | A13 J31 J62 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29125&r= |
| By: | Laurens Cherchye; Pierre-André Chiappori; Bram De Rock; Charlotte Ringdal; Frederic Vermeulen |
| Abstract: | To understand the household decision-making process regarding food expenditures for children in poor households in Nairobi, we conduct an experiment with 424 married couples. In the experiment, the spouses (individually and jointly) allocated money between themselves and nutritious meals for one of their children. First, we find strong empirical support for individual rationality and cooperative behavior. Second, our results suggest that women do not have stronger preferences for children’s meals than men. Third, the spouses’respective bargaining positions derived from consumption patterns strongly correlate with more traditional indicators. Finally, we document significant heterogeneity both betweenindividuals and intra-household decision processes. |
| Keywords: | collective model, intra-household allocation, experiment, Kenya, children |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/330565&r= |
| By: | Martin Ravallion |
| Abstract: | Thirty years of distributional data are used to study the short-term impacts of popular macroeconomic indicators on real household incomes from the poorest to the richest Americans. The appropriate weights on unemployment versus inflation vary across the distribution. The unemployment rate matters at all levels, but especially so for the poorest. Inflation rates matter at middle incomes, though Okun’s famous Misery Index only performs well for the top income groups. GDP growth matters at all levels and proportionately more for the poorest, though only via the unemployment rate. Recessions are poverty-increasing, and skewness-decreasing, but with ambiguous effects on overall inequality. |
| JEL: | D31 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29050&r= |
| By: | Hossain Ahmed Taufiq |
| Abstract: | Social accountability refers to promoting good governance by making ruling elites more responsive. In Bangladesh, where bureaucracy and legislature operate with little effective accountability or checks and balances, traditional horizontal or vertical accountability proved to be very blunt and weak. In the presence of such faulty mechanisms, ordinary citizens access to information is frequently denied, and their voices are kept mute. It impasses the formation of an enabling environment, where activists and civil society institutions representing the ordinary peoples interest are actively discouraged. They become vulnerable to retribution. Social accountability, on the other hand, provides an enabling environment for activists and civil society institutions to operate freely. Thus, leaders and administration become more accountable to people. An enabling environment means providing legal protection, enhancing the availability of information and increasing citizen voice, strengthening institutional and public service capacities and directing incentives that foster accountability. Donors allocate significant shares of resources to encouraging civil society to partner with elites rather than holding them accountable. This paper advocate for a stronger legal environment to protect critical civil society and whistle-blowers, and for independent grant-makers tasked with building strong, self-regulating social accountability institutions. Key Words: Accountability, Legal Protection, Efficiency, Civil Society, Responsiveness |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13128&r= |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Koronis, Epaminondas (University of Westminster, London, UK); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In economies where most firms are family-owned, there is a risk of poor management and problematic strategic and technological comprehension. Multiple cases prove the existence of a series of socio-economic pathologies in such firms that undermine an economy’s ability to overcome economic crises through innovative and entrepreneurial thinking and adaptability. The paper aims to present the relationship between entrepreneurship and “development and crisis” from the perspective of Greece’s current socio-economic crisis. It first analyzes the neo-Schumpeterian entrepreneurship theory and the structures that allow innovative and competitive models to appear and then links this context with Greece’s case. The “Stra.Tech.Man” theoretical framework of physiological types of entrepreneurship is suggested as the analytical base for elaborating a local development policy instrument for economies where such less competitive businesses prevail. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; socio-economic crisis; Greek crisis; neo-Schumpeterian perspective; Stra.Tech.Man physiology; entrepreneurship types; less competitive firms; local development |
| JEL: | B52 L26 |
| Date: | 2021–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2021_001&r= |
| By: | Lance Lochner; Qian Liu; Martin Gervais |
| Abstract: | This paper uses new administrative data with detailed borrower information and lengthy repayment histories from the Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP) to measure rates of return on undergraduate student loans. We document substantial heterogeneity in returns based on information available at the time loans were disbursed, including province of residence, field of study, and institution of attendance. Field of study is a particularly important determinant of rates of return, explaining 22% of the variation in predicted returns across borrowers. We explore the implications of this variation for CSLP cross-subsidization across borrowers and potential risk-based loan limits. Given the variation in ex ante predicted returns across borrowers, using all available information at the time of loan disbursement, we study the implications of potential cream-skimming of high-return borrowers by private lenders. |
| JEL: | D14 H52 H81 I22 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29130&r= |
| By: | Stephen Coussens; Jann Spiess |
| Abstract: | Instrumental variables (IV) regression is widely used to estimate causal treatment effects in settings where receipt of treatment is not fully random, but there exists an instrument that generates exogenous variation in treatment exposure. While IV can recover consistent treatment effect estimates, they are often noisy. Building upon earlier work in biostatistics (Joffe and Brensinger, 2003) and relating to an evolving literature in econometrics (including Abadie et al., 2019; Huntington-Klein, 2020; Borusyak and Hull, 2020), we study how to improve the efficiency of IV estimates by exploiting the predictable variation in the strength of the instrument. In the case where both the treatment and instrument are binary and the instrument is independent of baseline covariates, we study weighting each observation according to its estimated compliance (that is, its conditional probability of being affected by the instrument), which we motivate from a (constrained) solution of the first-stage prediction problem implicit to IV. The resulting estimator can leverage machine learning to estimate compliance as a function of baseline covariates. We derive the large-sample properties of a specific implementation of a weighted IV estimator in the potential outcomes and local average treatment effect (LATE) frameworks, and provide tools for inference that remain valid even when the weights are estimated nonparametrically. With both theoretical results and a simulation study, we demonstrate that compliance weighting meaningfully reduces the variance of IV estimates when first-stage heterogeneity is present, and that this improvement often outweighs any difference between the compliance-weighted and unweighted IV estimands. These results suggest that in a variety of applied settings, the precision of IV estimates can be substantially improved by incorporating compliance estimation. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.03726&r= |
| By: | Can Urgun; Leeat Yariv |
| Abstract: | We study a model of retrospective search in which an agent—a researcher, an online shopper, or a politician—tracks the value of a product. Discoveries beget discoveries and their observations are correlated over time, which we model using a Brownian motion. The agent, a standard exponential discounter, decides the breadth and length of search. We fully characterize the optimal search policy. The optimal search scope is U-shaped, with the agent searching most ambitiously when approaching a breakthrough or when nearing search termination. A drawdown stopping boundary is optimal, where the agent ceases search whenever current observations fall a constant amount below the maximal achieved alternative. We also show special features that emerge from contracting with a retrospective searcher. |
| JEL: | C61 C73 D25 D83 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29127&r= |
| By: | Hope, David; Limberg, Julian; Weber, Nina Sophie |
| Abstract: | Why do (some) ordinary citizens support tax cuts for the rich? A prominent explanation in the political economy literature stresses the role of unenlightened self-interest. According to this view, citizens consistently fail to gauge whether they are directly affected by tax policy reforms. We use a randomized survey experiment in the US to identify the drivers of preferences for cutting taxes on the rich. The results show that informing individuals of whether they are directly affected by a cut in the top federal income tax rate has no impact on preferences. We therefore find no support for the unenlightened self-interest explanation. In contrast, we find preferences for taxing the rich are fundamentally affected by information that shifts citizens' core fairness beliefs, as well as information on the past trajectory of top tax rates. Our results therefore align with explanations of tax policy preferences that emphasize the importance of fairness perceptions and reference points. |
| Date: | 2021–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:chk9b&r= |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Lanjouw, Peter F. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Measuring poverty trends and dynamics is an important undertaking for poverty reduction policies, which is further highlighted by the SDG goal 1 on eradicating poverty by 2030. We provide a broad overview of the pros and cons of poverty imputation in data-scarce environments, update recent review papers, and point to the latest research on the topics. We briefly review two common uses of poverty imputation methods that aim at tracking poverty over time and estimating poverty dynamics. We also discuss new areas for imputation. |
| Keywords: | poverty, imputation, consumption, wealth index, synthetic panels, household survey |
| JEL: | C15 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14631&r= |
| By: | Charlie Pilgrim; Weisi Guo; Thomas T. Hills |
| Abstract: | Over the past 200 years, rising rates of information proliferation have created new environments for information competition and, consequently, new selective forces on information evolution. These forces influence the information diet available to consumers, who in turn choose what to consume, creating a feedback process similar to that seen in many ecosystems. As a first step towards understanding this relationship, we apply animal foraging models of diet choice to describe the evolution of long and short form media in response to human preferences for maximising utility rate. The model describes an increase in information rate (i.e., entropy) in response to information proliferation, as well as differences in entropy between short-form and long-form media (such as social media and books, respectively). We find evidence for a steady increase in word entropy in diverse media categories since 1900, as well as an accelerated entropy increase in short-form media. Overall the evidence suggests an increasingly competitive battle for our attention that is having a lasting influence on the evolution of language and communication systems. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12848&r= |
| By: | Roberto Bonfatti; Giovanni Facchini; Alexander Tarasov; Gian Luca Tedeschi; Cecilia Testa |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role played by politics in shaping the Italian railway network, and its impact on long-run growth patterns. Examining a large state-planned railway expansion that took place during the second half of the 19th century in a recently unified country, we first study how both national and local political processes shaped the planned railway construction. Exploiting close elections, we show that a state-funded railway line is more likely to be planned for construction where the local representative is aligned with the government. Furthermore, the actual path followed by the railways was shaped by local pork-barreling, with towns supporting winning candidates more likely to see a railway crossing their territory. Finally, we explore the long-run effects of the network expansion on economic development. Employing population and economic censuses for the entire 20th century, we show that politics at a critical juncture played a key role in explaining the long-run evolution of local economies. |
| Keywords: | infrastructural development, political economy |
| JEL: | N01 N73 D72 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9228&r= |
| By: | Filippo Gusella; Anna Maria Variato |
| Abstract: | In recent years the names of Minsky and Piketty gained increasing notoriety to researchers because the two authors investigated issues of financial instability and income inequality, which represent both two unsolved macroeconomic problems of the new millennium, and evidence contradicting the long†run implications of mainstream macroeconomics. By combining these two names we set ourselves an ambitious goal, going beyond the technical aspects of the model presented in the paper. Indeed, not only we want to contribute directly to the debate meant at clarifying the controversial relationship between financial instability and income inequality; we also aim at addressing a broader issue which is the explanation of the reasons why a theoretical revolution in macroeconomics has not yet occurred, and why financial aspects still play a subordinate role to real factors in the explanation of growth and cycles. In this broader perspective Minsky and Piketty are assumed as extreme examples of the opposite poles of heterodoxy and orthodoxy. Both target and argumentative line of the contribution are quite unconventional, as usually financial instability and income inequality, are treated as separate if not independent issues of inquiry; and methodological reflection is no longer a customary explicit part of technical papers. We discuss possible reasons why these two circumstances happen. The theoretical framework proposed in this paper builds on Ferri (2016), who presents a class of demandled models in a medium†run time horizon. This class of models is not conventional too, though it belongs to “pedagogical models†, we consider especially relevant tool for macroeconomics. Among the different specifications investigated by the author, we select the nearest to possible comparison with Piketty (2014) and then we introduce corporate debt into the financial account of firms. Because of the non†linearity of the model, we explore its dynamic properties with numerical simulations. Such simulations are also performed to assess the parameters enabling to support the Financial Instability Hypothesis. Aiming at deepening the comprehension of robustness properties, we also consider analytic results from a linearized version of the model. Obviously, the criticism addressed to Piketty with respect to the definition and measurement of inequality can be extended to our model too, as we use the same expedient to check the evolution of inequality. This leads to emphasize the relevance of the issue of measurement as a critical one for future developments. Nevertheless, this does not impinge on the achievement of our purpose. Indeed, our analysis confirms the utility of pedagogical models. Furthermore, it underlines the need of a change of economic vision such that complexity comes as a substantial part of representation. In terms of future perspectives these considerations point out the need for macroeconomic epistemology to resume constructive dialectics: a mixture of plural narratives and foundations for new visions of economic policy. Those just proposed at the end of the paper differ from orthodox ones as they call for financial regulation, they underline qualitative aspects and heterogeneity; but such embryonal policy suggestions stem from the overall perspective described in the paper, a perspective rooted into Ferri’s notion of medium†run, and qualified by Minsky through an eclectic approach leading to networks of balance†sheets: two ways highly overlapping though not totally equivalent to represent the reality of and endogenously unstable capitalism lying at the edge of chaos. |
| Keywords: | Economic Inequality, Financial Instability Hypothesis, Endogenous Cycles |
| JEL: | B41 D31 E32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2021_15.rdf&r= |
| By: | Gilles Teneau (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UN - Université de Nantes - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes, ESD R3C - Équipe Sécurité & Défense - Renseignement, Criminologie, Crises, Cybermenaces - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); Ghizlane Kinani (UTLN SeaTech - Université de Toulon - École d’ingénieurs SeaTech - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Faced with new extreme environments, the world is changing, and professions must adapt. Consequently, teaching and research staff must also adapt, modify their behavior and pedagogy, and consequently take a «social leadership» type position, in the spirit of a CSR approach, with regard to their students and colleagues. Faced with a world in crisis, with difficult contexts in extreme environments, new forms of teaching must emerge, in which teacher-researchers become social leaders. The research work specific to leadership is a strong element that we can take into account. A new ethic of teachers with regard to their students, colleagues and organization emerges as a social responsibility and is based on the elements of emotional intelligence. This paper is a work in progress, first field observations were made with training centers as well as with trainers, the observations raised the proposal of a social leadership of teachers. We propose in a second step an exploratory analysis with teacher-researchers and management schools, according to the methodological triangulation. |
| Abstract: | Face aux nouveaux environnements de type extrême, le monde change, les métiers doivent s'adapter, en conséquence les enseignements et les enseignants-chercheurs doivent aussi s'adapter, modifier leurs comportements, leur pédagogie, et par conséquent prendre une position de type «leadership social», dans l'esprit d'une approche RSE, au regard de leurs étudiants et de leurs collègues. Face à un monde en crise, à des contextes difficiles en environnements extrêmes, de nouvelles formes d'enseignement doivent émerger, en cela les enseignants chercheurs deviennent des leaders sociaux. Les travaux de recherches propres au leadership sont des éléments forts que nous pouvons prendre en compte. Une nouvelle éthique des enseignants au regard de leurs élèves, de leurs collègues et de leur organisation émerge en tant que responsabilité sociale et s'appuie sur les éléments de l'intelligence émotionnelle. Ce papier est un travail en cours, de premières observations terrain ont été faites auprès de centres de formation ainsi qu'auprès de formateurs, les observations soulevaient la proposition d'un leadership social des enseignants. Nous proposons dans un second temps une analyse exploratoire auprès d'enseignants-chercheurs et d'école de management, selon la triangulation méthodologique. |
| Keywords: | Ethics,Emotion,Teaching,Teacher,Leadership,Ethique.,Enseignement,Enseignant |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277496&r= |
| By: | Josep Ferret Mas (Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Reading); Alexander Mihailov (Department of Economics, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | The present paper endorses an interdisciplinary approach to the complex and urgent issue of intergenerational climate justice, and proposes a rich menu of policy options, in particular some novel and unconventional ones, to resolve it immediately but flexibly. We incorporate the realistic features of economic growth, nominal interest, expected inflation, and the option for nonrepayment or partial repayment of public debt across generations as well as a central bank institution, or rather the global network of central banks, to implement climate mitigation policy in the stylized model proposed by Sachs (2015). Similarly, but even without repayment, we find such kind of policy, which we label 'green quantitative easing', or 'green QE', to be Pareto-efficient across generations. Differently, we argue that neither the present, nor future generations need to repay the novel greening compensatory transfers (GCTs) to households and firms we envisage to serve as a main financial instrument of central banks in triggering a decisive reversal in environmental deterioration right now, without further delay, given the emergency of the situation. Moreover, and in support of the economic considerations and incentives, we argue from philosophical, legal and political-theory grounds that such a financial scheme intermediated by central banks worldwide serves two types of principles of intergenerational climate justice: (i) principles that tell us to mitigate climate change now and avoid harm for future generations; and (ii) principles that tell us how to share mitigation costs fairly across generations. Our spectrum of suggested pragmatic green QE initiatives includes potential issuance by firms and households of super-long-term coupon bonds to be held by central banks over up to a century, possibly GCT-based only, and allows for much flexibility and complementarity in the practical solutions to be potentially chosen, with voluntary partial repayment or not of the mitigation costs across generations. |
| Keywords: | green quantitative easing, greening compensatory transfers, central banks, public finance, climate change mitigation policy, intergenerational climate justice, intergenerational social welfare |
| JEL: | D61 D63 D78 E21 E58 F55 G28 H23 O44 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2021-16&r= |
| By: | Serena Ng |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus is a global event of historical proportions and just a few months changed the time series properties of the data in ways that make many pre-covid forecasting models inadequate. It also creates a new problem for estimation of economic factors and dynamic causal effects because the variations around the outbreak can be interpreted as outliers, as shifts to the distribution of existing shocks, or as addition of new shocks. I take the latter view and use covid indicators as controls to 'de-covid' the data prior to estimation. I find that economic uncertainty remains high at the end of 2020 even though real economic activity has recovered and covid uncertainty has receded. Dynamic responses of variables to shocks in a VAR similar in magnitude and shape to the ones identified before 2020 can be recovered by directly or indirectly modeling covid and treating it as exogenous. These responses to economic shocks are distinctly different from those to a covid shock, and distinguishing between the two types of shocks can be important in macroeconomic modeling post-covid. |
| JEL: | C18 E0 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29060&r= |
| By: | Kenwin Maung |
| Abstract: | Maximum likelihood estimation of large Markov-switching vector autoregressions (MS-VARs) can be challenging or infeasible due to parameter proliferation. To accommodate situations where dimensionality may be of comparable order to or exceeds the sample size, we adopt a sparse framework and propose two penalized maximum likelihood estimators with either the Lasso or the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty. We show that both estimators are estimation consistent, while the SCAD estimator also selects relevant parameters with probability approaching one. A modified EM-algorithm is developed for the case of Gaussian errors and simulations show that the algorithm exhibits desirable finite sample performance. In an application to short-horizon return predictability in the US, we estimate a 15 variable 2-state MS-VAR(1) and obtain the often reported counter-cyclicality in predictability. The variable selection property of our estimators helps to identify predictors that contribute strongly to predictability during economic contractions but are otherwise irrelevant in expansions. Furthermore, out-of-sample analyses indicate that large MS-VARs can significantly outperform "hard-to-beat" predictors like the historical average. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.12552&r= |
| By: | Larojan, Chandrasegaran |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of accounting ratios on stock market price of top twenty companies based on the highest market capitalization listed in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE). The objectives of this study were to examine the impact of Earnings per Share (EPS) on stock market price; to examine the impact of Dividend per Share (DPS) on stock market price, to examine the impact of Price Earnings ratio (PE) on stock market price and to examine the impact of Market to Book ratio (MB) on stock market price. The panel data was collected from the top twenty companies for the period of five years from 2015 to 2019. EPS, DPS, PE and MB ratios were used as the proxies for the independent variables and stock price was used as the proxy for the dependent variable for this study. In order to perform the inferential analysis Pearson correlation analysis, panel regression with fixed effect, random effect and pooled linear regression were used. Hausman test was adopted in order to choose either random effect regression or fixed effect regression. According to pooled regression analysis, EPS, DPS and PE ratios had positive significant impact on stock market price. MB ratio had a negative significant impact on stock market price. According to fixed effect regression analysis, EPS, PE and MB ratios had positive insignificant impact on stock market price whereas DPS had a positive significant impact on stock market price. This study offers an insight to the potential investors to make the rational investment decisions in the stock market. |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:xwk7r&r= |
| By: | Pauline Affeldt; Elena Argentesi; Lapo Filistrucchi |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the relevance of multi-homing in two-sided markets. First, we build a micro-founded structural econometric model that encompasses demand for differentiated products and allows for multi-homing on both sides of the market. We then use an original dataset on the Italian daily newspaper market that includes informat |