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on Islamic Finance |
| By: | Muhammad Mirza (School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i Azam University); Hussain Abbas (The Islamia University of Bahawalpur - IUB (PAKISTAN)); Irfan Hasnain Qaisrani (Bahria University) |
| Abstract: | Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in a strenuous competition in the Middle East to protect and promote their respective spheres of influence, to each other's detriment. This qualitative study traces the structural sources of this competition while taking cue from the history. It argues that demise of Saddam Hussein, Iraq's plunging into civil war, and Arab Spring leading to violent movements in Syria, Libya, Bahrain, and Yemen accentuated Saudi–Iran competition in the region. Study finds that the sources of their rivalry lie at structural level and can be understood by focusing upon their aspiration for the Muslim world leadership, religio-sectarianism, antithetical governance structure, and Iranian nuclear program. |
| Abstract: | L'Arabie saoudite et l'Iran se livrent une concurrence acharnée au Moyen-Orient pour protéger et promouvoir leurs sphères d'influence respectives, au détriment l'un de l'autre. Cette étude qualitative retrace les sources structurelles de cette compétition en s'inspirant de l'histoire. Il fait valoir que la disparition de Saddam Hussein, la plongée de l'Irak dans la guerre civile et le printemps arabe entraînant des mouvements violents en Syrie, en Libye, à Bahreïn et au Yémen ont accentué la concurrence entre l'Arabie saoudite et l'Iran dans la région. Une étude révèle que les sources de leur rivalité se situent au niveau structurel et peuvent être comprises en se concentrant sur leur aspiration au leadership mondial musulman, au sectarisme religieux, à la structure de gouvernance antithétique et au programme nucléaire iranien. |
| Keywords: | Saudi Arabia,Iran,Middle East,sphere of influence,proxy warfare,sectarianism,Iranian nuclear program |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03289613&r= |
| By: | Hossain Ahmed Taufiq |
| Abstract: | The 2017 crackdown on Rakhine Rohingyas by the Myanmar army (Tatmadaw) pushed more than 600,000 refugees into Bangladesh. Both Western and Islamic countries denounced Aung Sang Suu Kyis government, but both Asian giants, China and India, supported Myanmars actions. Both also have high stakes in Myanmar given their long-term geopolitics and geoeconomic South and Southeast Asian plans. In spite of Myanmar-based commonalities, Chinas and Indias approaches differ significantly, predicting equally dissimilar outcomes. This chapter examines their foreign policy and stakes in Myanmar in order to draw a sketch of the future of Rakhine Rohingyas stuck in Bangladesh. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13727&r= |
| By: | Abdul Halim, Asyraf |
| Abstract: | A Shariah compliant firm faces a trade-off between keeping their Shariah compliancy versus having their long-term debt to assets or market-capitalisation ratio above 30%, when they operate within a market with little or no access to a liquid Islamic debt market. On the other hand, Proposition 1 of Modigliani & Miller (1963) posits that interest tax shield benefits, derived from long-term debt, reduce the hypothetical firm’s investment cut-off rate and therefore provide extra value for the firm. Facing a ceiling value on their long-term debt to assets or market-capitalisation ratio, Shariah compliant firms therefore should be unable to fully enjoy lower interest tax shield benefits, and consequently, lower investment cut-off rate vis-à-vis their conventional counterparts. Subsequently, any samples of Shariah compliant firms formed within a market without access to a liquid Islamic debt market should demonstrate a consistent tendency towards a specific set corporate financial behaviour due to the consistently higher than average investment cut-off rate. This paper extends the theoretical work of Modigliani & Miller (1963) to, firstly, demonstrate how a higher-than-average investment cut-off rate is a natural consequence of the debt ratio screening incorporated within the contemporary Shariah Stock Screening Methodology for a Shariah compliant firm that is devoid of access to a liquid Islamic debt market. Next, the paper outlines (with supporting empirical stylised facts) the subsequent corporate financial characteristics that samples of Shariah compliant firms are more skewed towards. The paper finds that Shariah compliant firm faces a theoretical floor limit to their investment-cut off rate, implying that the average Shariah compliant firm may find that lesser projects pass their internal rate of return vis-à-vis the projects of a similar conventional firm. Consequently, samples of Shariah compliant firms consistently show the following corporate financial characteristics; above-average size, larger marginal change in size and profitability in response to a given marginal change in investments, low book-to-market ratio and lower investment rates, when compared to a sample of conventional firms. |
| Keywords: | Shariah Stock Screening Methodologies, Shariah Debt Ratio Screening, Investment cut-off rate, Corporate Financial Behaviour |
| JEL: | G30 G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109019&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The economy is recovering after a major, pandemic-induced economic downturn. The authorities have deployed a comprehensive set of policy responses that have helped to mitigate the socioeconomic impact and maintain financial stability. The economic recovery slowed in the first half of 2021 due to a second wave of COVID-19 infections. Vaccination has started and is poised to accelerate from midyear. |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/177&r= |
| By: | Facundo Alvaredo (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anthony B Atkinson (NUFFIELD COLLEGE - Nuffield College - University of Oxford [Oxford]); Thomas Blanchet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lucas Chancel (IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Luis Estevez Bauluz (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Matthew Fisher-Post (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ignacio Flores (WIL - World Inequality Lab); Bertrand Garbinti (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Clara Martínez-Toledano (WIL - World Inequality Lab); Marc Morgan (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Neef Theresa; Thomas Piketty (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anne-Sophie Robilliard (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme); Emmanuel Saez (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Gabriel Zucman (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Li Yang |
| Date: | 2021–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03307584&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Following the October 2020 election, the new administration moved to tackle the devastating human and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy shows signs of recovery from its 8.8 percent contraction in 2020. However, fiscal imbalances have increased and international reserves continue to fall. On February 12, Bolivia repurchased the 240.1 million SDR purchase under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument (that was approved by the Fund’s Executive Board in April 2020). |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/180&r= |
| By: | Nizar, Muhammad Afdi; Mansur, Alfan |
| Abstract: | A risk-based premium scheme could be a reliable system to determine a fairer deposit insurance premium. This research aimed to assess Indonesian banks’ risk profile, including per size classification and ownership as well as to counterfactually simulate a risk-based deposit insurance system for the individual banks. This research combined analysis of variance (ANOVA) and non-parametric approach applied to 75 banks (2008q1-2019q3). The results showed that big banks did not necessarily posture better risk management compared to small banks. Also, under the risk-based scheme, banks with better risk management could be rewarded, while less prudent banks could be punished. |
| Keywords: | Deposit; premium; flat-rate; risk-based; banks; insurance |
| JEL: | C12 C54 G21 G28 G3 G30 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109083&r= |
| By: | Mohamad Ikhsan (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | As in other countries, COVID-19 has created pressure on Indonesia’s food security through decreased income and reduced access, as well as increased transaction costs and uncertainty in the country’s food system. Before assessing these impacts of COVID-19, we highlight several key facts about Indonesia’s food system, including the high proportion of net consumers among farmers and the domination of informal small-medium enterprises in the supply chain. We then emphasize that food security is threatened by income shocks and purchasing power decline due to economic contraction, while effects on the supply side have been limited so far. While farmers’ terms of trade have increased throughout the pandemic, downstream food SMEs such as traditional food vendors are likely worse affected by COVID-19 restriction measures. On the labor market, we observe a substantial shift of workers to agriculture, accompanied by a deeper drop in the sector’s wage level compared to other sectors. Finally, we caution that risks to food security remain, especially as Indonesia faces new COVID-19 outbreaks post-Eid 2021, and outline policy recommendations related to social safety nets, supply chain resilience, and the use of technology. |
| Keywords: | Food Security — COVID-19 — Food Supply Chain — Food SMEs — Indonesia |
| JEL: | O13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202161&r= |
| By: | Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Martin Obschonka (Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia); Fabian Wahl (University of Hohenheim, Germany); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, The Netherlands, and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany) |
| Abstract: | A region’s present-day economic performance can be deeply anchored in historical factors. We provide the first systematic evidence of a deep imprinting effect in the context of Roman rule in the south-western part of Germany nearly 2,000 years ago. Our analysis reveals that regions in the former Roman part of Germany show a stronger entrepreneurship and innovation culture today, evident by higher levels of quantity and quality entrepreneurship and innovation. The data indicate that this lasting 'Roman effect' was constituted by the early establishment of interregional social and economic exchange and related infrastructure. Our findings thus help in unpacking the hidden cultural roots of present-day economic performance, with important implications for research and economic policy. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, innovation, historical roots, Romans, Limes |
| JEL: | N9 O1 I31 |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2021-012&r= |
| By: | Juliette Itangishatse; Kizito Ndihokubwayo; Jean Claude Byiringiro; Marie Sagesse Uwurukundo |
| Abstract: | Many countries undertake entrepreneurship lessons as an accelerator for creating new jobs and encouraging students to be entrepreneurs. The present study was carried out to track the female students’ career paths after completing high school. The study surveyed 41 students from both a day and a boarding school in Kayonza district, Rwanda. The findings reveal that female students from both schools prefer entrepreneurial jobs after completing high school. In comparison, 80% of students in the day and 58.5% of boarding school students chose their career path as entrepreneurs. The study was limited in the sample, and it suggested further research in the same area; however, it recommends teachers to inspire their students by inviting entrepreneurs around to school Key Words: Entrepreneurship, female students, boarding school, day school Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-06&r= |
| By: | Katherine Di Lucido; Nicholas K. Tabor; Jeffery Y. Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a brief history of the U.S. financial regulatory perimeter, a legal cordon comprised of “positive†and “negative†restrictions on the conduct of banking organizations. Today’s regulatory perimeter faces a wide range of challenges, from disaggregation, to new commercial entrants, to new varieties of charters (and new uses of legacy charters). We situate these challenges in the longer history of American banking, identifying a pattern in debates about the nature, shape, and position of the perimeter: outside-in pressure, inside-out pressure, and reform and expansion. We also observe a shift in this pattern, beginning roughly three decades ago, which gradually made the perimeter broader, more complex, and arguably more permeable. We show this trend graphically in an animation accompanying this paper. |
| Keywords: | Regulatory perimeter; Banking regulation; Law and economics; Non-bank financial intermediation |
| JEL: | K20 K40 N20 N40 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-51&r= |
| By: | Bernardo Melo Pimentel (NOVA SBE - NOVA - School of Business and Economics - NOVA - Universidade Nova de Lisboa = NOVA University Lisbon, ISEG - ISEG-Lisbon School of Economics and Management - University of Lisbon); Guillermo Ramírez (ESCP Europe - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris) |
| Abstract: | We describe how Sustainable Finance is understood in the European context, its current state, and its outlook. We argue that while the framework currently being developed to standardize our understanding of sustainable investments is absolutely necessary, it is also crucial for concrete laws and regulations to be created to incentivize actors in the financial markets to redirect funds from non-sustainable investments to sustainable alternatives. |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03286596&r= |
| By: | Yusuke Narita (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Ayumi Sudo (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Democracy is widely believed to contribute to economic growth and public health. However, we find that this conventional wisdom is no longer true and even reversed; democracy has persistent negative impacts on GDP growth since the beginning of this century. This finding emerges from five different instrumental variable strategies. Our analysis suggests that democracies cause slower growth through less investment, less trade, and slower value-added growth in manufacturing and services. For 2020, democracy is also found to cause more deaths from Covid-19. |
| Keywords: | Democracy, Economic Growth, Public Health, Causality |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2281r&r= |
| By: | Ruchi Avtar; Rajashri Chakrabarti; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy |
| Abstract: | A critical risk during the COVID-19 pandemic has been the possibility of the hospital system becoming overwhelmed. COVID-19 not only has killed nearly 2 percent of people with confirmed infections but causes many more who contract it to develop severe complications that are potentially fatal if not treated in an intensive care unit (ICU). As ICU capacity is based on typical needs for intensive care before the pandemic, a surge of COVID-related ICU patients may leave no room for individuals requiring intensive care for other reasons—such as heart attacks—or may exceed the total ICU capacity to treat even COVID-19 patients. In this post, we investigate the extent to which members of different racial and ethnic groups faced different levels of hospital system stress during the “third wave” of COVID-19 in the winter of 2021, which, as the largest wave to hit the United States, briefly brought intensive care units around the country to the point of being overwhelmed. We find that while Black and Hispanic individuals faced the greatest exposure to overburdened ICUs over the course of the third wave from beginning to end, Asian American and Pacific Islanders (AAPI) went from experiencing more stable ICU capacities than the national average at the beginning of the wave to a nearly overwhelmed ICU system at its peak. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; race; ICU; hospital |
| JEL: | J15 I14 |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:92951&r= |
| By: | Yosuke Uno (Bank of Japan); Akira Sonoda (Bank of Japan); Masaki Bessho (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a survey of a field called the economics of privacy. Reflecting growing concerns worldwide about the handling of personal data on the Internet, the economics of privacy is developing rapidly, coinciding with recent efforts by privacy regulators to tighten regulations. The literature argues that it is difficult for market mechanisms to resolve problems such as how to determine the socially optimal level of privacy protection and how to avoid excessive privacy loss driven by negative data externalities. These insights should be useful for policymakers facing the question of how to deal with personal data issues and to ensure that people's privacy is protected. |
| JEL: | D62 D82 D83 K20 M31 M37 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp21e11&r= |
| By: | Jens Klose (THM Business School Giessen) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates similarities and differences between gold and four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin). To do so, we estimate a system-GARCH-in-mean with respect to four determinants for the period starting 7/18/2014 at earliest until 7/12/2021. We find that, first, liquidity premia are less important. Second, volatility premia exist in either gold and cryptocurrencies. Third, the response of cryptocurrencies to exchange rate changes is more pronounced than for gold at least if developing countries are included. Fourth, gold exhibits a safe haven status, while cryptocurrencies do not. So those cannot be seen as a store of value but rather as speculative assets. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrencies, Gold, System-GARCH-in-mean |
| JEL: | E42 G15 C58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202128&r= |
| By: | Hernán Vallejo |
| Abstract: | This article builds a simple model of oligopoly and uses it to make a detailed characterization of the equilibrium prices; quantities; mark-ups; price elasticities of market demand; price elasticities of residual demand; and welfare, all in terms of the parameters of the model. This is done under five different conjectures -Collusion, Threat, Cournot, Stackelberg and Bertrand-. The results of the model are used do comparative statics. |
| Keywords: | Oligopoly, Collusion, Threat, Cournot, Stackelberg, Bertrand, mark-up |
| JEL: | C70 C71 D43 L13 |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019428&r= |
| By: | Daga, Rosnaini |
| Abstract: | The study is entitled Analysis of the Financial Performance of PT PLN (Persero) in South, Southeast, and West Sulawesi, before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aims to determine and analyze financial performance using financial ratios, including liquidity ratios, solvency ratios, activity ratios, and profitability ratios. The method used in this study is quantitative. |
| Date: | 2021–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:e5nza&r= |
| By: | Dikau, Simon; Volz, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Chinese monetary and financial authorities have been among the pioneers in promoting green finance. This paper investigates the use of one specific monetary policy tool, namely window guidance, by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) and the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) to encourage financial institutions to expand credit to sustainable activities and curb lending to heavy-polluting industries. We investigate window guidance targets for the period 2001-2020 and find that ‘green window guidance’ was used by the CBRC from at least 2006 and by the PBC from 2007 to discourage lending to carbon-intensive and polluting industries and/or to increase support to sustainable activities. Both authorities stopped discouraging lending to carbon-intensive/polluting industries in 2014. Sustainable objectives were subsequently also removed from the PBC’s list of priority sectors at the start of 2019, ending the practice of green window guidance in China. Sustainability-enhancing window guidance targets were replaced and formalised through new ‘Guidelines for Establishing the Green Financial System’, reflecting efforts to move away from controls-based towards market-based policy instruments. Based on this analysis, the paper draws four lessons for the design of green finance policies for other countries that seek to enhance sustainable finance and mitigate climate change and related risks. |
| Keywords: | sustainable finance; central banking and financial supervision; China; Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy; ES/P005241/1; ES/R009708/1; 71661137002 |
| JEL: | G10 G20 G30 Q01 Q50 |
| Date: | 2021–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111489&r= |
| By: | Kurt Sant |
| Abstract: | This study constructs a COVID-19 response tracker for Malta following the methodology developed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) project. The tracker is based on data for 16 indicators that are in turn aggregated into a set of four indices – Government response index; Containment and health index; Economic support index; and Stringency index. After describing the construction of the tracker and outlining how Malta’s response evolved during 2020 and early 2021, the note studies the relationship between movements in this tracker and macroeconomic indicators such as economic sentiment, retail trade, industrial production and labour market variables, as well as with a novel database made available by Google on local mobility during the pandemic. The study also compares developments in Malta’s tracker with those in the Euro Area and its constituent Member States. A heatmap analysis shows how Malta’s response along the different dimensions of the index compared with its European peers. |
| JEL: | E00 H12 H51 I12 I15 I18 I19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mlt:ppaper:0221&r= |
| By: | Luca J. Santos; Alessandro V. M. Oliveira; Dante Mendes Aldrighi |
| Abstract: | The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies' income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1 per cent higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153 per cent to 0.166 per cent more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00850&r= |
| By: | Adam, Klaus; Gautier, Erwan; Santoro, Sergio; Weber, Henning |
| Abstract: | Using micro price data underlying the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in France, Germany and Italy, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle and show that minimizing price and mark-up distortions in the presence of these trends requires targeting a significantly positive inflation target. Relative price trends shift the optimal inflation target up from a level of zero percent, as suggested by the standard sticky price literature, to a range of 1.1%- 2.1% in France, 1.2%-2.0% in Germany, 0.8%-1.0% in Italy, and 1.1-1.7% in the Euro Area (three country average). Differences across countries emerge due to systematic differences in the strength of relative price trends. Other considerations not taken into account in the present paper may push up the optimal inflation targets further. The welfare costs associated with targeting zero inflation turn out to be substantial and range between 2.1% and 4.5% of consumption in present-value terms. JEL Classification: E31, E52 |
| Keywords: | micro price trends, optimal inflation target, welfare |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212575&r= |
| By: | Bouchra Benyacoub (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah) |
| Abstract: | Financial inclusion is the set of mechanisms put in place to enable individuals and businesses, which are excluded from the traditional banking circuit, to access and use financial products and services adapted to their needs. Financial inclusion enables poor people to finance their activities, save and provide for their families. Several studies have demonstrated significant impact that access to and use of financial services has on the lives of individuals and businesses, which in turn leads to increased savings, productive investment, consumption, poverty reduction and women's empowerment. Poor and vulnerable people, especially women, are the most excluded and face great difficulties in accessing formal financial services. The gender gap is wider in Morocco than in similar countries: only 34% of women have access to a bank account compared to 66% of men. Financial inclusion is therefore both an opportunity and a necessity, but is nevertheless hindered by a number of obstacles. The objective of this study is to map out and analyze the barriers to women's financial inclusion through a quantitative study using SPSS software. The study found that the main barriers to women's financial inclusion include their lack of knowledge of financial services, cultural or religious factors, and lack of provisions or aversion to credit. In order to strengthen women's financial inclusion, it is necessary to develop financial services that meet the needs of all social categories and particularly women, the popularization of financial services and products for women, and financial education, which is one of the pillars of financial inclusion, Finally, the use of mobile banking, which is considered a gas pedal of access to and use of financial services, consists of banking transactions carried out from a cell phone, which makes it possible to compensate for the low penetration of formal financial services and to remove the barriers imposed by traditional channels that penalize a large clientele, particularly women. |
| Abstract: | Déclaration de divulgation : L'auteur n'a pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude. Conflit d'intérêts : L'auteurs ne signale aucun conflit d'intérêts. Citer cet article Benyacoub, B. (2021). Étude empirique sur les freins à l'inclusion financière des femmes au Maroc. L'inclusion financière est l'ensemble des dispositifs mis en place pour permettre aux particuliers et aux entreprises, qui sont exclus du circuit bancaire classique, d'accéder et d'utiliser des produits et services financiers adaptés à leurs besoins. L'inclusion financière permet aux populations pauvres de financer leurs activités, d'épargner et de subvenir aux besoins de leur famille. Plusieurs études Cull et al. (2014) ont prouvé l'impact significatif de l'accès et de l'utilisation des services financiers sur la vie des particuliers et des entreprises ce qui va entrainer par la suite à la croissance de l'épargne, l'augmentation de l'investissement productif, de la consommation, la réduction de la pauvreté et de l'autonomisation des femmes. Les personnes pauvres et vulnérables, en particulier les femmes sont les plus exclues et font face à de grandes difficultés pour accéder aux services financiers formels. L'écart entre les hommes et les femmes est plus important au Maroc. Selon BAM, (2019), seulement 34% des femmes marocaines ont accès à un compte bancaire contre 66% des hommes. L'inclusion financière est donc une opportunité et une nécessité, mais se trouve néanmoins freinée par un certain nombre d'obstacles. L'objectif de cette étude est d'étaler et d'analyser les entraves à l'inclusion financière des femmes à travers une étude quantitative en utilisant le logiciel SPSS. Cette étude a montré que parmi les principaux obstacles à l'inclusion financière des femmes : leur ignorance des services financiers, les facteurs culturels ou religieux, manque de provisions ou aversion aux crédits. Pour renforcer l'inclusion financière des femmes, il faut améliorer la qualité des services financiers afin qu'ils correspondent aux besoins de toutes les classes sociales et particulièrement des femmes, la vulgarisation de services et des produits financiers destinés aux femmes, l'éducation financière, qui constitue un des piliers de l'inclusion financière, ce qui permet aux femmes de connaitre les produits et services financiers et les aide à prendre des décisions financières avec moindres risques et enfin l'utilisation du Mobile Banking qui est considéré comme un accélérateur de l'accès et de l'utilisation des services financiers, qui consiste en des transactions bancaires effectuées depuis un téléphone mobile qui permet de palier à la faible pénétration des services financiers formels et lever les barrières imposées par les circuits classiques qui pénalisent une large clientèle en particulier les femmes. |
| Keywords: | Financial education,Access to Finance,Accès Au Financement,Education Financière,Inclusion Financière |
| Date: | 2021–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03306210&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year has been well-managed by the authorities. Timely and prudent fiscal and monetary easing shielded the economy from the full brunt of the crisis, while alleviating the health and social impact of the shock. Sound economic policies helped deliver macroeconomic stabilization, safeguard debt sustainability, and preserve investor confidence. While growth is expected to rebound in FY2021/22, the outlook is still clouded by uncertainty related to the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations. High public debt and large gross financing needs leave Egypt vulnerable to external shocks or changes in financial market conditions for EMs. Near-term fiscal and monetary policies should thus continue to support the recovery without accumulating undue imbalances. |
| Date: | 2021–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/163&r= |
| By: | Gregori Galofré-Vilà (Universidad Pública de Navarra & INARBE); María Gómez-León (Universidad Pública de Navarra & INARBE); David Stuckler (Bocconi University. Department of Social and Political Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Objectives- Evidence linking past experiences of worsening health and support for radical political views has generated concerns about the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The influenza pandemic that began in 1918 had a devastating impact on mortality. We test the hypothesis that deaths from the 1918 influenza pandemic contributed to the rise of fascism in Italy. Study design- Cross-sectional study comparing votes for the Fascist party and other mainstream parties in Italian cities in the general election of April 1924, using data that Corbetta and Piretti collected from state archives with yearly cause-specific mortality data, taken from the Italian historical statistical books (Statistica Delle Cause di Morte, edited by the Ministero per L’Industria, Il Commercio e Il Lavoro). Methods- We linked city-level regression models of Fascist vote shares in the 1924 election on changes in deaths from influenza in 1918 in 73 Italian cities, adjusting for socioeconomic factors, city-characteristics and regional dummies. To provide a ‘thicker’ interpretation of these quantitative patterns, we applied historical text mining to the newspaper Il Popolo d’Italia (Mussolini’s newspaper). Results- 4.1 million Italians contracted influenza and about 500,000 died. In cities with higher influenza death rates the Fascists gained higher vote shares. Each additional 1 influenza death/1,000 population was associated with a 3.12-percentage-point increase in vote share for the Fascist party in 1924 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.44 to 5.79). These results were consistent even after adjusting for casualties in World War I and indicators of social conflicts and economic hardship. There was no association between higher mortality and vote share for the Socialist or Communist parties. Historical archival analysis also shows how the Fascists exploited the pandemic for political gain. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nav:ecupna:2102&r= |
| By: | Jaime D. Acevedo-Viloria; Luisa Roa; Soji Adeshina; Cesar Charalla Olazo; Andr\'es Rodr\'iguez-Rey; Jose Alberto Ramos; Alejandro Correa-Bahnsen |
| Abstract: | Large digital platforms create environments where different types of user interactions are captured, these relationships offer a novel source of information for fraud detection problems. In this paper we propose a framework of relational graph convolutional networks methods for fraudulent behaviour prevention in the financial services of a Super-App. To this end, we apply the framework on different heterogeneous graphs of users, devices, and credit cards; and finally use an interpretability algorithm for graph neural networks to determine the most important relations to the classification task of the users. Our results show that there is an added value when considering models that take advantage of the alternative data of the Super-App and the interactions found in their high connectivity, further proofing how they can leverage that into better decisions and fraud detection strategies. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13673&r= |
| By: | Davillas, Apostolos (University of East Anglia); Burlinson, Andrew (University of East Anglia); Liu, Hui-Hsuan (Royal Veterinary College) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study to explore the association between fuel poverty and a set of well-being outcomes: life-satisfaction, self-reported health measures and more objectively measured biomarker data. Over and above the conventional income–fuel cost indicators, we also use more proximal heating deprivation indicators. We create and draw upon a set of composite indicators that concomitantly capture (the lack of) affordability and thermal comfort. Depending on which fuel deprivation indicator is used, we find heterogeneous associations between fuel poverty and our well-being outcomes. Employing combined fuel deprivation indicators, which takes into account the income–fuel cost balance and more proximal perceptions of heating adequacy, reveals the presence of more pronounced associations with life satisfaction and fibrinogen, one of our biological health measures. The presence of these strong associations would have been less pronounced or masked when using separately each of the components of our composite fuel deprivation indicators as well as in the case of self-reported generic measures of physical health. Lifestyle and chronic health conditions plays a limited role in attenuating our results, while material deprivation partially, but not fully, attenuates our associations between fuel deprivation and well-being. These results remain robust when bounding analysis is employed to test the potential confounding role of unobservables. Our analysis suggests that composite fuel deprivation indicators may be useful energy policy instruments for uncovering the underlining mechanism via which fuel poverty may get "under the skin". |
| Keywords: | fuel poverty, biomarkers, health, well-being |
| JEL: | I12 I31 I32 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14635&r= |
| By: | Sajid, Zoya; Iftikhar, Naba; Ghouri, Ushna; Siddiqui, Humbal; Uddin, Kaleem |
| Abstract: | Mobile banking is a convenient solution to access the financial services from anywhere around. Corporates, entrepreneurs and business person can easily use mobile apps to directly receive money from customers to phone numbers to process payments and save time. Mobile technology allows banks to reduce operating costs while maintaining customer satisfaction – but how real and true is this in Pakistan? The purpose of this study is to figure out what are the primary drivers of mobile banking adoption in Pakistan and how they affect customer satisfaction... Banking as a developing technology is being adopted by the surrounding banking departments. The research includes a survey and analysis based on a total of 250 replies, the majority of which were from Karachi, Pakistan. PLS-SEM was utilized in the study to test the research model and hypothesis. The data reveal that service quality, structural assurance, system quality, information quality, task characteristics, and task characteristics all have a favorable impact on consumer satisfaction, whereas, trust fully mediates the relationship. So because data was acquired from a small number of people, the study may be biased because the results are self-reported and respondents may have answered incorrectly, making the findings less credible. |
| Keywords: | Mobile Phone, Online Banking services, Customer Satisfaction, Internet banking, e-banking in Pakistan. |
| JEL: | M1 M3 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108938&r= |
| By: | Henri Njangang (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Sosson Tadadjeu (University of Dschang , Cameroon); Yann Nounamo (University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon); Brice Kamguia (University of Dschang, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The study assesses the role of governance in modulating the effect of oil wealth on wealth inequality in 45 countries in the world. The empirical evidence is based on Pooled Ordinary Least Squares and the Generalised Method of Moments. The findings show that oil rents unconditionally increase wealth inequality while govenance dyanmics (in terms of rule of law, corruption-control, government effectiveness, regulatory quality) moderate oil rents for an overall net negative effect on wealth inequality. Good governance thresholds at which the unconditional effect of oil rents on the wealth inequality changes from positive to negative are computed and discussed. It follows that while governance is a necessary condition for improving the redistributive effects of oil wealth, it becomes a sufficient condition for net positive improvements in wealth distribution only when some critical levels of good governance have been reached. Other policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Governance; Oil wealth; Wealth inequality, Panel data |
| JEL: | F21 F54 L71 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/049&r= |
| By: | Kajal Lahiri (University at Albany, SUNY); Huaming Peng (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute); Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University) |
| Abstract: | From the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined or ensemble forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. This uncertainty formula should incorporate forecaster discord, as justified by (i) disagreement as a component of combined forecast uncertainty, (ii) the model averaging literature and (iii) central banks’ communication of uncertainty via fan charts. Using new statistics to test for the homogeneity of idiosyncratic errors under the joint limits with both T and n approaching infinity simultaneously, we find that some previously used measures can significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Central Bank Communication, Disagreement, Ensemble, Forecast Combination, Panel Data, Uncertainty |
| JEL: | C12 C33 E37 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2021-005&r= |
| By: | Malgouyres, Clément (Paris School of Economics); Mayer, Thierry (Sciences Po, Paris); Mazet-Sonilhac, Clément (Sciences Po, Paris) |
| Abstract: | Suárez Serrato and Zidar (2016) identify state corporate tax incidence in a spatial equilibrium model with imperfectly mobile firms. Their identification argument rests on comparative-statics omitting a channel implied by their model: the link between common determinants of a location's attractiveness and the average idiosyncratic productivity of firms choosing that location. This compositional margin causes the labor demand elasticity to be independent from the product demand elasticity, impeding the identification of incidence from the four estimated reduced-form effects. Assigning consensual values to the unidentified parameters, we find that the incidence share born by firm-owners is closer to 25% than 40%. |
| Keywords: | incidence, corporate income tax, discrete/continuous choice |
| JEL: | H22 H25 H32 H71 R23 R51 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14569&r= |
| By: | Wesley H. Holliday; Eric Pacuit |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a new single-winner voting system using ranked ballots: Stable Voting. The motivating principle of Stable Voting is that if a candidate A would win without another candidate B in the election, and A beats B in a head-to-head majority comparison, then A should still win in the election with B included (unless there is another candidate A' who has the same kind of claim to winning, in which case a tiebreaker may choose between A and A'). We call this principle Stability for Winners (with Tiebreaking). Stable Voting satisfies this principle while also having a remarkable ability to avoid tied outcomes in elections even with small numbers of voters. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00542&r= |
| By: | Bloom, Nicholas; Manova, Kalina; Van Reenen, John; Sun, Stephen Teng; Yu, Zhihong |
| Abstract: | We study how management practices shape export performance using matched production-trade-management data for Chinese and American firms and a randomized control trial in India. Better-managed firms are more likely to export, sell more products to more destinations, and earn higher export revenues and profits. They export higher-quality products at higher prices and lower quality-adjusted prices. They import a wider range of inputs and inputs of higher quality and price, from more advanced countries. We rationalize these patterns with a heterogeneous-firm model in which effective management improves performance by raising production efficiency and quality capacity. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 L81 N0 |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111559&r= |
| By: | Galstyan, Vahagn (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the empirical relation between inflation and unemployment over the past 25 years by using a panel state-space model. After controlling for the global factor, I find that the domestic rate of unemployment explains 11 percent in the variation of headline inflation, suggesting a significant power that domestic slack has in influencing medium-term core inflation. The global factor, in turn, is well explained by global oil and food prices as well as global trade integration. The contribution of the global slack in explaining the global component of inflation is negligible. Additionally, using a set of threshold regressions, I identify break points that split inflation dynamics into various regimes. In particular, I find a higher sensitivity of inflation to unemployment in high-inflation and/or low unemployment regimes. This finding is consistent with less frequent price adjustments of firms in low-inflation and high-unemployment environments. |
| Keywords: | Phillips Curve, State-Space Model, Non-Linearities |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E50 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:5/rt/21&r= |
| By: | Salvatore Cardillo (Bank of Italy); Raffaele Gallo (Bank of Italy); Francesco Guarino (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the competing forces that are reshaping the European banking industry and the medium-term consequences for profitability and competition within the sector. The paper highlights that banks are rethinking their business model to address four challenges to emerge in the last decade: low interest rates, tighter regulation, technological innovation, and increasing competition from non-bank intermediaries. The shock generated by the Covid-19 pandemic adds to those developments and has the potential to accelerate them. Our analysis suggests that in order to successfully compete in the medium term banks will likely have to exploit the benefits of digitization, mainly deriving from the reduction in operating costs and the increase in the scale of production. Accommodating the surging demand for green finance is also likely to represent an important source of profits, resulting from the growth of the green market and the development of new specialized products and advisory services. Success in these strategies will presumably require a significant reorganization of banks’ activities to leverage on economies of scale and scope. |
| Keywords: | banking sector, bank business model, bank profitability, Covid-19, digitization |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_634_21&r= |
| By: | Boulier, Bryan; Emran, M. Shahe; Hoque, Nazmul |
| Abstract: | A substantial literature on women’s say in the household focuses on microcredit, but there is little evidence on the relative roles of credit and education. Using household survey data from Bangladesh, we provide a comparative analysis of the effects of education and microcredit on women’s decision making power in the household. We implement two econometric approaches: bias adjusted OLS estimator of Oster (2019) that extends the Altonji et al. (2005) approach where selection on observables is used as a guide to selection on unobservables, and doubly robust radius matching estimator of Lechner et al. (2011). The evidence suggests a limited impact of microcredit, consistent with the recent evidence from RCT based studies. In contrast, education is much more important for enhancing women’s say in a range of household decisions. There is no significant interaction effect between education and credit. Evidence from Gelbach decomposition suggests that outside employment is an important mediating mechanism, but household wealth and assortative marriage matching on education are not important. The impact of education on women’s decision making remains strong even after controlling for these mediating factors, pointing to the importance of other mechanisms such as self-confidence and better negotiation skills of educated women. |
| Keywords: | Women’s Empowerment, Household Decision Making, Women’s Education, Microcredit, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | C31 G21 J16 O10 |
| Date: | 2021–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109009&r= |
| By: | Anna Burova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Svetlana Popova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Sinyakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Yulia Ushakova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | We use credit registry data on all corporate loans issued by all Russian banks since 2017 to decompose the bank interest spreads into a common factor, as well as borrower and lender-related components while controlling for loan characteristics. We find that variation in loan rates associated with lender-specific factors (heterogeneity of banks) and borrower-specific factors (heterogeneity of borrowers) is substantial. We use the identified bank-specific components to measure fragmentation of the corporate credit market in Russia. We illustrate the developments in the Russian credit market during the pandemic using the obtained estimates. The results indicate that heterogeneity in banks’ interest rate setting is high and increased in the early stage of the pandemic. The range of borrower-related premiums charged by banks also widened (mostly due to increase in rates of loans to companies in sectors presumably affected by the pandemic). Finally, our results suggest that banks tightened non-interest loan conditions during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | bank interest margin, bank interest spread, corporate credit, credit registry, financial stability, credit market fragmentation, Russian banking sector in the pandemic. |
| JEL: | E44 E51 E52 E58 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps77&r= |
| By: | Maciej Ber\k{e}sewicz; Dagmara Nikulin |
| Abstract: | We use a dataset covering nearly the entire target population based on passively collected data from smartphones to measure the impact of the first COVID-19 wave on the gig economy in Poland. In particular, we focus on transportation (Uber, Bolt) and delivery (Wolt, Takeaway, Glover, DeliGoo) apps, which make it possible to distinguish between the demand and supply part of this market. Based on Bayesian structural time-series models, we estimate the causal impact of the first COVID-19 wave on the number of active drivers and couriers. We show a significant relative increase for Wolt and Glover (15% and 24%) and a slight relative decrease for Uber and Bolt (-3% and -7%) in comparison to a counterfactual control. The change for Uber and Bolt can be partially explained by the prospect of a new law (the so-called Uber Lex), which was already announced in 2019 and is intended to regulate the work of platform drivers. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11124&r= |
| By: | Packham, Natalie; Woebbeking, Fabian |
| Abstract: | We develop a general approach for stress testing correlations of financial asset portfolios. The correlation matrix of asset returns is specified in a parametric form, where correlations are represented as a function of risk factors, such as country and industry factors. A sparse factor structure linking assets and risk factors is built using Bayesian variable selection methods. Regular calibration yields a joint distribution of economically meaningful stress scenarios of the factors. As such, the method also lends itself as a reverse stress testing framework: using the Mahalanobis distance or highest density regions (HDR) on the joint risk factor distribution allows to infer worst-case correlation scenarios. We give examples of stress tests on a large portfolio of European and North American stocks. |
| Keywords: | Correlation stress testing,reverse stress testing,factor selection,scenario selection,Bayesian variable selection,market risk management |
| JEL: | G11 G32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2021012&r= |
| By: | Sugata Marjit; Noritsugu Nakanishi |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of wage fund as the basic source of credit, capital or finance in a dynamic Ricardian model, which consists of three classes of agents: the workers, the capitalist, and the producers of goods. We introduce and develop an elaborate dynamic wage fund model in the context of contemporary economic theory. The modified golden rule can be derived based on a mechanism significantly different from the standard Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans optimal growth framework. We also show that, although international trade in a static setting in the wage fund framework has real asymmetric distributional effects on the welfare of the agents just like the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, those asymmetric distributional impacts are nullified in the dynamic setting. In fact, trade liberalization is Pareto improving along the balanced growth path. |
| Keywords: | wage fund, Ricardo model, modified golden rule, gains from trade, balanced growth path |
| JEL: | B12 B17 F10 F43 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9218&r= |
| By: | Frank Geels (The Productivity Institute, Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester); Guillermo Ivan Pereira (The Productivity Institute, Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester); Jonatan Pinkse (The Productivity Institute, Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester) |
| Keywords: | green recovery, Covid-19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:004&r= |
| By: | Andreas Fuster; Aurel Hizmo; Lauren Lambie-Hanson; James Vickery; Paul S. Willen |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of US mortgage credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the mortgage market experienced a historic boom in 2020, we show there was also a large and sustained increase in intermediation markups that limited the pass-through of low rates to borrowers. Markups typically rise during periods of peak demand, but this historical relationship explains only part of the large increase during the pandemic. We present evidence that pandemic-related labor market frictions and operational bottlenecks contributed to unusually inelastic credit supply, and that technology-based lenders, likely less constrained by these frictions, gained market share. Rising forbearance and default risk did not significantly affect rates on "plain-vanilla" conforming mortgages, but it did lead to higher spreads on mortgages without government guarantees and loans to the riskiest borrowers. Mortgage-backed securities purchases by the Federal Reserve also supported the flow of credit in the conforming segment. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage; Credit; Financial intermediation; Fintech; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-48&r= |
| By: | Frohm, Erik |
| Abstract: | Dominant currency pricing (DCP) weakens the demand-side effects of exchange rate changes on exports (Gopinath et al., 2020). However, adjustment in the export sector can still occur through other supply-side channels. With bilateral trade data at the HS2-product level, panel fixed-effects regressions and an instrumental variables (IV) approach, this paper presents several novel findings: (1), a depreciation of an exporter’s currency against the US-dollar increases total export volumes between non-US countries, whereas bilateral exchange rates matter very little. (2), there is no statistically significant increase in average exports per firm (the intensive margin), while the aggregate export response is mainly driven by an increase in the number of exporting firms (the extensive margin). (3), there is substantial heterogeneity in the export response to exchange rates against dominant currencies. Market concentration, approximated by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), reduces the response of both the extensive and intensive margins to the US-dollar exchange rate. These results highlight an “export supply channel” of exchange rates in a world with dominant currencies, deepen our understanding of aggregate export adjustment and further underline the heterogeneous export response in different sectors to exchange rate changes. JEL Classification: F14, F31, F41 |
| Keywords: | dominant currencies, exchange rates, export heterogeneity, extensive margins of trade, intensive margins of trade |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212580&r= |
| By: | McMillan, Melville (University of Alberta, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Since being introduced in 1972, taxable capital gains in Canada have been based on partial inclusion of nominal capital gains (i.e., the difference between sale and purchase prices). The inclusion rates have varied between 50 and 75 percent but have been 50 percent since 2000. Recently, there has been discussion of increasing capital gains taxes by increasing the inclusion rate (back to) 75 percent. In this paper, I argue that the capital gains tax is a poorly designed and inequitable tax and so, rather than make another ad hoc adjustment to the inclusion rate, a superior option is to reform capital gains taxation by indexing for inflation so as to measure real capital gains (i.e., the increase in purchasing power that is realized). The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index and the index of consumer prices are used to determine 40 and 50 year sequences of the differences between real and nominal measures of capital gains under both 50 and 75 percent inclusion rates for an index asset held for 20, 10 and 5 years. The work demonstrates that taxable capital gains are over and under assessed considerably relative to real capital gains. For example, over the period 1996 to 2020, differences between the taxable capital gains under a 75 percent inclusion rate and real gains would have been about 20 percent for a 10-year hold and about 33 percent for a 5 year hold. The results demonstrate the varying disparities between real gains and those under partial inclusion. Such disparities imply wide differences in effective tax rates and so inequities among investors, over time and with other taxpayers. This evidence argues persuasively that Canada’s capital gains taxation should abandon partial inclusion and turn to serious reform by indexing for inflation. |
| Keywords: | capital gains tax; inclusion rate; inflation; nominal versus real; indexing |
| JEL: | E62 H20 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2021_006&r= |
| By: | Lia Q. Flores (School of Economics and Management, University of Porto); Miguel A. Fonseca (Department of Economics, University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | Psychologists have long identified the tendency of humans to overestimate their skill relative to their peers (overplacement). We investigate whether this phenomenon is exacerbated by group affiliation: social identity theory predicts people evaluate in-group members more positively than out-group members, and we hypothesized that this differential treatment may result in greater overplacement when interacting with an out-group member. We tested this hypothesis with 301 US voters affiliated with either the Republican or Democratic party in the run-up to the 2020 Presidential election, a time when political identities were salient and highly polarized. We found there is a higher tendency for overplacement when faced with an out-group opponent than with an in-group opponent. Decomposition analysis suggests this difference is due to underestimating the opponent, as opposed to overestimating one's own performance to a higher degree. Moreover, any tendency to incur in overplacement is mitigated when faced with an opponent with the same political-identity relative to one with a neutral one. While group affiliation biases initial priors, such effect is unchanged when participants are asked to update their beliefs. |
| Keywords: | overconfidence, belief updating, motivated beliefs, overplacement, social identity, political affiliation, competition |
| JEL: | D18 D91 Z1 C9 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2103&r= |
| By: | Mihai Stoicescu (Aurel Vlaicu University, Arad, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The 21st century will be a religious one or not. The revolutions in the former communist bloc seemed to turn the world into churches and set the tone for bringing religion back to the forefront. A rediscovery of the values of the Christian faith will produce a pure and true religion. One of these values is putting hands. Both Jesus Christ and the apostles were healed, "poured out" the Holy Spirit upon the converts, and consecrated men to the ministry by laying on of hands. |
| Keywords: | ethic, morality, values, miracles, laying hands, Roman-Catholic, Orthodox, Protestantism |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01248&r= |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha (World Bank); El Lahga, Abdel Rahmen (University of Tunis); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Tunisia's GDP contracted by -8.8 percent in 2020, the worst performance since gaining independence in 1956. The poverty rate in Tunisia could reach at least 20.9, the same level recorded in 2010, and as high as 25 percent according to various estimates (Kokas et al., 2020); while inequality could reach an unprecedented Gini level of 0.41. While Tunisia has faced difficult political, economic and social challenges—in addition to the global COVID-19 pandemic—Tunisia's performance was below peer countries even during periods of strong growth. All economic sectors in Tunisia have declined, except agriculture, and structural transformation has been weak. Nearly 68 percent of workers are employed in sectors with the lowest productivity. Youth and women have been especially left behind as job growth has not kept pace with university graduates and growth in the working-age population: early 32 percent of Tunisian youth were "Not in Education, Employment, or Training" (NEET), and female labor force participation (FLFP) of 29 percent remains among the lowest in the world. Clearly, key labor market challenges in terms of poor job creation, and low quality of job have not seen much progress since the Arab Revolution. This paper aims to shed light on the main obstacles to creating sufficient employment and addressing labor market distortions in Tunisia, based on several data sources, including latest rounds of labor force surveys, and helps recognize issues that require immediate policy attention in the labor market in Tunisia. |
| Keywords: | labor markets, employment, Tunisia |
| JEL: | J31 F16 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14563&r= |
| By: | Sreekumaran Nair, Sree Lekshmi; Aston, John; Kozlovski, Eugene |
| Abstract: | The study's main aim is to examine the impact of organisational culture on occupational stress by comparing the IT sectors in India and the UK. The paper adopts the application of Denison’s model for studying the organisational culture, whereas role conflict, role ambiguity, role overload and role stress are considered to discuss occupational stress. Through snowball, convenience, purposive and quota sampling techniques, 62 respondents (31 from India and 31 from the UK) were targeted to attain a qualitative perspective through a semi-structured questionnaire. Results showed that there is an impact of organisational culture on occupational stress. Moreover, the impact is mainly evident in the Indian IT sector than the UK IT sector. Moreover, considering the impact of organisational culture on occupational stress, overall employees experience occupational stress, role overload, role conflict, role ambiguity and role stress. In contrasting economies, Indian IT sector employee’s experience role conflict, role overload, role ambiguity and role stress, whereas UK IT sector employees’ experience role ambiguity. |
| Keywords: | Organisational culture, occupational stress, gender, contrasting economies, IT workforce, SMEs |
| JEL: | L20 L29 M10 M15 |
| Date: | 2021–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109014&r= |
| By: | Dean Spears (University of Texas at Austin [Austin], Indian Statistical Institute [New Delhi], IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics, IFFS - Institute for Futures Studies); Stéphane Zuber (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Utilitarianism is the most prominent family of social welfare functions. We present three new axiomatic characterizations of utilitarian (that is, additively separable) social welfare functions in a setting where there is risk over both population size and the welfares of individuals. First, we show that, given uncontroversial basic axioms, Blackorby et al.'s (1998) Expected Critical-Level Generalized Utilitarianism (ECLGU) is equivalent to a new axiom holding that it is better to allocate higher utility-conditional-on-existence to possible people who have a higher probability of existence. The other two novel characterizations extend classic axiomatizations of utilitarianism from settings with either social risk or variable-population, considered alone. By considering both social risk and variable population together, we clarify the fundamental normative considerations underlying utilitarian policy evaluation. |
| Keywords: | Social risk,population ethics,utilitarianism,expected critical-level generalized utilitarianism,prioritarianism |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03287583&r= |
| By: | T. Kharytonova; V. Nosik; Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University); V. Mykhailov; M. Kurilo |
| Abstract: | There is a strong bonding of categories when we are to consider problems connected with land. The constant development of social relations brings the necessity to notice what is vital for the legislation to follow those changes. In that order, there is unambiguity in resolving land disputes, particularly about subsoil use. The spatial use of land rights raises a question of clear legislative criteria for their application. For us, it refers to the consideration of the "upper" and "lower" limits of rights distribution. Accordingly, this article investigates the rules of legislation for land and subsoil use. The object of the study is legal problems arising from social relations regarding land and subsoil use. As for the methodology, the following methods were used: analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, abstraction, generalization, historical and legal methods, formal-legal (dogmatic) method, comparative-legal and sociological-legal methods, legal modeling, and critical-legal method. It has been concluded that domestic legal doctrine includes two approaches to the distribution of owner's rights for the underground space. Additionally, there is a problem of legal demarcation between land and subsoil use. As a result of the study, we offer some ways to solve this issue. |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03284994&r= |
| By: | Etienne Redor (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we re-question the value of board independence for shareholders. Instead of studying the relationship between the proportion of independent directors and firm performance (as in previous studies), we analyse how shareholders perceive board independence by examining the relations between director independence and shareholder satisfaction as measured by shareholder voting outcomes in annual director elections. This approach allows us to overcome concerns about omitted firm-level characteristics and to propose a finer analysis of the value of board independence/affiliation for shareholders. We show (1) that independent and inside directors receive significantly more, and affiliated directors significantly fewer, 'for' votes in director elections than other board members, (2) that not all inside and affiliated directors hold the same value for shareholders and (3) that the leadership structure matters to shareholders. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03290640&r= |
| By: | Jude Darmanin |
| Abstract: | Consumer price inflation in Malta is officially measured through the Retail Price Index (RPI). The RPI calculates the price change of a basket of goods and services, which is derived from average expenditure shares obtained through the Household Budgetary Survey (HBS). In practice, the representation of an “average†household is skewed towards high income households, whose expenditure makes up a relatively larger share of total consumer spending. As a result, the RPI might not always accurately measure the inflation rate faced by low income households, whose basket differs from the overall average for all households. This study uses HBS data to calculate an estimated inflation rate for household in the bottom income quartile. The results suggest that between 2010 and 2020 these households experienced some periods of higher inflation than suggested by the official rate. This was particularly so during periods of rising food and energy prices in the first half of the sample period. A similar result was found for retired household, who form a large subset of low income household. Despite this, an analysis of the minimum wage and the minimum pension suggests that benefits have maintained their purchasing power since 2010, even when accounting for higher inflation. In part, this was due to ad hoc government allowances on top of automatic annual increments. |
| JEL: | E30 E31 I31 I38 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mlt:ppaper:0121&r= |
| By: | Kit Baum (Boston College; DIW Berlin; CESIS); Miguel Henry (Greylock McKinnon Associates) |
| Abstract: | In an extension of the standard spatial autoregressive (SAR) model, Aquaro, Bailey and Pesaran (ABP; 2021, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2792) introduced a SAR panel model that allows one to produce heterogeneous point estimates for each spatial unit. Their methodology has been implemented as the Stata routine hetsar (Belotti, 2021, Statistical Sofware Components S458926). As the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved in the U.S. since its first outbreak in February 2020 with following resurgences of multiple widespread and severe waves of the pandemic, the level of interactions between geographic units (for example, states and counties) has differed greatly over time in terms of the prevalence of the disease. Applying ABP’s HETSAR model to 2020 and 2021 COVID-19 data outcomes (confirmed case and death rates) at the state level, we extend our previous spatial econometric analysis (Baum and Henry, 2020, Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1009) on socioeconomic and demographic factors influencing the spatial spread of COVID-19 confirmed case and death rates in the U.S. |
| Date: | 2021–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:scon21:34&r= |
| By: | Spackman, Michael |
| Abstract: | There has been a forty-year divide in economics on the relevance to public funding of the equity premium (in particular, today, the consumption CAPM). The costs and benefits of public spending are often correlated with income, but conventional neoclassical analysis, applied by many governments, suggests that the cost of this systematic risk in publicly funded activities is usually trivial. On the other hand, it is often asserted that equity market premiums, which are very much higher than would be estimated from neoclassical analysis (the equity premium ‘puzzle’), should apply also to public funding. This paper, which aims largely to help government administrations, assembles a picture of the evolving research on and understanding of the premium. Public funding does incur social costs arising from the associated tax burden. There is, however, no evidence to support assertions that the equity risk premium anomaly is relevant to public funding. In any case, the cost of systematic risk in the benefits of public funding does not fall as an annual percentage rate to financiers, but as an absolute cost to public service beneficiaries. |
| Keywords: | climate change legislation; climate policy; carbon leakage; pollution havens; production emissions; consumption emissions; Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy |
| JEL: | N0 E6 |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111488&r= |
| By: | Andrés O. Dávila; Manuel Fernández; Hernando Zuleta |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the upsurge of natural resources income from the commodity price boom of the 2000s on the functional distribution of income. To do so, we build a general equilibrium model of Dutch disease that characterizes how natural resource windfalls affect equilibrium factor shares. The theory suggests that the response of factor shares to exogenous changes in commodity prices depends on the relative intensity of factors in the tradable and natural resource sectors. We construct estimates of income shares accruing to raw labor, human capital, physical capital, and natural resources, and quantify the effect of the resource boom on factor shares. For identification, we use a two-way fixed effects strategy and a differential exposure design to instrument commodity prices. We find that a natural resource boom negatively impacts the total labor, human capital, and physical capital shares, while the raw labor share remains unchanged. Our estimates suggest that the natural resource boom explains nearly 25.7 percent of the global decline of the total labor share during the 2000s. We also find a redistribution effect within labor income that indicates that the fall of the labor share was unevenly distributed against human capital. |
| Keywords: | Labor Share, Factor Income Shares, Natural Resource Boom, Commodity Price Boom, Dutch Disease, Human Capital. |
| JEL: | D33 F14 J31 O13 |
| Date: | 2021–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019427&r= |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson |
| Abstract: | Using US Census Household Pulse Survey data for the period April 2020 to June 2021 we track the evolution of the mental health of nearly 2.3 million Americans during the COVID pandemic. We find anxiety, depression and worry peaked in November 2020, coinciding with the Presidential election. The taking of prescription drugs for mental health conditions peaked two weeks later in December 2020. Mental health improved subsequently such that by April 2021 it was better than it had been a year previously. The probability of having been diagnosed with COVID did not rise significantly in the first half of 2021 but COVID infection rates were higher among the young than the old. COVID diagnoses were significantly lower in States that had voted for Biden in the Presidential Election. The probability of vaccination rose with age, was considerably higher in Biden states, and rose precipitously over the period among the young and old. Anxiety was higher among people in Biden states, whether they had been diagnosed or not, and whether they were vaccinated or not. The association between anxiety and depression and having had COVID was not significant in Biden or Trump states but being vaccinated was associated with lower anxiety and depression, with the effect being larger in Biden states. Whilst being in paid work was associated with lower anxiety, worry and depression and was associated with higher vaccination rates, it also increased the probability of having had COVID. |
| JEL: | I1 I3 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29040&r= |
| By: | Nieuwenhuis, Jaap (Zhejiang University); Best, Matt (University of Colorado Denver); Vogel, Matt (University at Albany); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology); Branje, Susan (Utrecht University); Meeus, Wim (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | An extensive body of research has documented the deleterious effects of community violence on adolescent development and behavior. Much of this research focuses on how exposure violence structures social interaction, and, ultimately, how it motivates youth to engage in troublesome behavior. This study builds upon this body of research to demonstrate how exposure to community violence strains relationships between adolescents and their caregivers, resulting in higher levels of interpersonal conflict. Drawing on five waves of longitudinal panel data (n=778; observations=3,458; 55% female), combined with police records of violent crime in Utrecht, the Netherlands, a hybrid tobit regression documents how exposure to local and nearby violence affects child-parent conflict. The results indicate that youth who experience high levels of neighborhood violence report higher levels of conflict with parents than youth with low exposure to neighborhood violence. These results are consistent across different levels of neighborhood aggregation. |
| Keywords: | adolescent development, child-parent conflict, community violence, longitudinal panel |
| JEL: | I30 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14587&r= |
| By: | Benjamin Cabanes (IHEIE - Institut des Hautes Etudes pour l’Innovation et l’Entrepreneuriat (IHEIE) - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | Les experts scientifiques et techniques ont un rôle important dans les stratégies d'innovation des entreprises industrielles. Cependant, ce rôle peut s'avérer différent selon le type de management. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03254530&r= |
| By: | Julián Roa Rozo |
| Abstract: | En este estudio se estiman los efectos de las políticas monetarias no convencionales realizadas por Estados Unidos, la Zona Euro, Reino Unido y Japón (países avanzados) en las economías de México, Brasil, Colombia, Chile y Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de proyección global con tasas de interés sombra. Se encuentra que los spillovers de nivel de la política monetaria son pequeños y los más relevantes para Latinoamérica son los provenientes de Estados Unidos. También se encuentra que los spillovers de volatilidad de las políticas monetarias no convencionales de los países avanzados son pequeños. Los ejercicios de descomposición histórica muestran que la variable más afectada por los spillovers fue la inflación. Finalmente, se simularon escenarios contrafactuales en ausencia de políticas monetarias no convencionales por parte de los países avanzados en donde se encontraron pérdidas cercanas al 0.5 % del PIB en los países latinoamericanos en 2014T4, y una inflación menor en cerca de 1.5 %. Lo anterior muestra el alto costo de no implementar estas políticas y es de particular relevancia para la crisis del COVID-19. |
| Keywords: | Políticas monetarias no convencionales, economías emergentes, modelo de proyección global, tasas de interés sombra, límite inferior efectivo. |
| JEL: | E37 E47 E58 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019424&r= |
| By: | Kenneth Gillingham; Pei Huang |
| Abstract: | This study examines the uneven effects of air pollution from maritime ports on physical and mental health across racial groups. We exploit quasi-random variation in vessels in port from weather events far out in the ocean to estimate how port traffic influences air pollution and human health. We find that one additional vessel in a port over a year leads to 3.0 hospital visits per thousand Black residents within 25 miles of the port and only 1.0 per thousand for whites. We assess a port-related environmental regulation and show that the policy can help alleviate racial inequalities in health outcomes. |
| JEL: | D63 I14 Q51 Q53 Q58 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29108&r= |
| By: | Fauquet-Alekhine, Philippe; Bauer, Martin W.; Lahlou, Saadi |
| Abstract: | Subjective Evidence-Based Ethnography (SEBE) is a family of methods developed in digital ethnography for investigation in social science based on subjective audio–video recordings using first-person perspective. Recordings are used for self-confrontation (collect subjective experience, discussion of findings and final interpretation). Several studies applying SEBE methods mentioned “introspection” as a process occurring during self-confrontation and discussed it without providing evidence of its occurrence. This article aimed at clarifying introspection and its occurrence in SEBE. After a literature review addressing introspection, the process of introspection in SEBE was analyzed, depicted and illustrated by a case study. Conditions for introspection to occur in SEBE and the related mechanisms were proposed: it was found that indirect introspection could actually occur but not frequently and could go unnoticed without lessening the quality of the analysis. A refined analysis of introspection during or after the interviews was not identified as an added-value for the activity analysis. |
| Keywords: | activity analysis; cognition; digital ethnography; introspection; memory; self |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108417&r= |
| By: | Laurent Faivre |
| Abstract: | Dans un contexte de taux d’intérêt durablement bas et de crise sanitaire, le marché de l’immobilier résidentiel français est resté résilient en 2020 : le nombre de ventes en France a atteint 1 024 000, en recul de 4 % par rapport au pic historique de 2019, mais très supérieur à la moyenne des 3 dernières années (999 000 ventes). Dans le même temps l’indice INSEE des prix dans l’ancien a continué de progresser de 6,4 % en métropole, de manière uniforme entre la Province et l’Île-de-France, malgré le léger recul observé à Paris au quatrième trimestre (-0,1 %). Dans cet environnement, la production annuelle de crédits à l’habitat s’est élevée à 252,4 milliards en 2020, soit une hausse de 2,4 % par rapport à 2019 ; par ailleurs, si elle décélère légèrement depuis son pic de mai 2020, atteignant 242 milliards en mars 2021 sur 12 mois, la production de crédits reste très nettement au-dessus de sa moyenne annuelle depuis fin 2003 (156,7 milliards). Dans le même temps, les encours de crédits à l’habitat ont enregistré une croissance de 5,4 % sur l’année, tandis que les autres crédits aux particulier ont enregistré un repli de 0,5 %. |
| Keywords: | crédits à l’habitat des particuliers, prêt moyen, durée moyenne, loan to value, taux d’effort, encours douteux et provisions, coût du risque |
| JEL: | G21 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:analys:124&r= |
| By: | Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ekrame Boubtane (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Tribune parue dans Le Monde Idées, mercredi 6 novembre 2019 |
| Date: | 2019–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03274311&r= |
| By: | Chaoran Cui; Xiaojie Li; Juan Du; Chunyun Zhang; Xiushan Nie; Meng Wang; Yilong Yin |
| Abstract: | Predicting the future price trends of stocks is a challenging yet intriguing problem given its critical role to help investors make profitable decisions. In this paper, we present a collaborative temporal-relational modeling framework for end-to-end stock trend prediction. The temporal dynamics of stocks is firstly captured with an attention-based recurrent neural network. Then, different from existing studies relying on the pairwise correlations between stocks, we argue that stocks are naturally connected as a collective group, and introduce the hypergraph structures to jointly characterize the stock group-wise relationships of industry-belonging and fund-holding. A novel hypergraph tri-attention network (HGTAN) is proposed to augment the hypergraph convolutional networks with a hierarchical organization of intra-hyperedge, inter-hyperedge, and inter-hypergraph attention modules. In this manner, HGTAN adaptively determines the importance of nodes, hyperedges, and hypergraphs during the information propagation among stocks, so that the potential synergies between stock movements can be fully exploited. Extensive experiments on real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Also, the results of investment simulation show that our approach can achieve a more desirable risk-adjusted return. The data and codes of our work have been released at https://github.com/lixiaojieff/HGTAN. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14033&r= |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the relationship between governance and human development in Africa during the period 2010-2019 taking into account the existence of spatial dependence and controlling the endogeneity problem through a Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). The exploratory spatial data analysis reveals the existence of spatial dependence of human development and governance quality. Our empirical findings support that in Africa, “good fences make good neighbours†or proximity matters in the distribution of human development. Implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Governance, human development, Africa |
| JEL: | D31 I10 I32 K40 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/051&r= |
| By: | Ek, Simon (Department of Economics, Uppsala University, and); Hammarstedt, Mats (Department of Economics and Statistics, Linnaeus University, and); Skedinger, Per (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | We study the causal effects of previous experience and language skills when newly arrived refugees in Sweden apply for job openings by means of a field experiment. Applications were sent from randomly assigned fictitious Syrian refugees with experience in jobs with low skill requirements and completed language training in Swedish to employers advertising low-skilled job vacancies. We find no evidence of sizeable effects from previous experience or completed language classes on the probability of receiving callback from employers. However, female applicants were more likely than males to receive a positive response. We conclude that previous experience and completed language training seem to provide at best a small positive signaling value when refugees apply for low-skilled jobs through formal channels. |
| Keywords: | Integration of immigrants; Language skills; Job mobility |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1398&r= |
| By: | Serafica, Ramonette B.; Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Baje, Lora Kryz C.; Orbeta, Aniceto C. Jr. |
| Abstract: | The landscape of life and work, once shaped by the advancements in the field of information and communications technology is being disrupted once again due to the ongoing pandemic. As people adjust their attitudes towards risks and firms adjust their losses, platform work/online work, or work that is delivered and transacted online, is likely to become part of the new normal. This paper looks into some stylized patterns in online work in the Philippines within the bigger context of the Asian experience. This highlights some of the challenges that pertain to skills and social protection and recommends ways to address these challenges. <p>Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Asia, social protection, Coronavirus Disease 2019, Online work, platform work, new normal |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-29&r= |
| By: | Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia |
| Abstract: | The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has interrupted the recovery in Germany. GDP is set to decline in the first quarter of this year, after stagnating in the previous quarter. However, with the vaccination campaign progressing, the economic burden of the pandemic will ease and the recovery will continue at a rapid pace. Unlike last year, the economic losses are currently much more concentrated on consumer-related service industries and retail trade. Even though the negative impact on private consumer spending is currently even more severe than at the beginning of the pandemic, the overall economic impact will be much smaller. The main reason is that the export business continues to recover. Moreover, with sustained relief in sight for many companies due to the availability of effective vaccines, there will be no major decline in investment. Overall, GDP is expected to pick up strongly with growth rates of 3.7 percent this year and 4.8 percent next year, following the decline of 4.9 per cent in 2020. The recovery at the labor market will take more time. On average, employment is not yet expected to be higher in 2021 than in 2020; it will only pick up noticeably in 2022. Inflation is expected to rise significantly above 2 percent this year. However, temporary factors will contribute significantly to this increase and therefore the inflation rate is expected to decline again in 2022. Finally, the pandemic is also leaving its mark on public budgets. Due to the pandemic-related additional expenditures and revenue shortfalls, the budget deficit this year will once again be well above 4 percent relative to GDP. In 2022, the deficit will probably decline significantly to 1.3 per cent. The debt level will then be just under 70 per cent again. |
| Keywords: | business cycle forecast,stabilization policy,leading indicators,outlook,Business Cycle Germany,Fiscal Policy & National Budgets,Labor Market |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:77&r= |
| By: | Isaksen, Elisabeth; Johansen, Bjørn G. |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that differentiating driving costs by time of day and vehicle type help improve urban air quality, lower driving, and induce adoption of electric vehicles. By taking advantage of a congestion charge that imposed spatial and temporal variation in the cost of driving a conventional vehicle, we find that economic incentives lower traffic and concentrations of NO2. Exploiting a novel dataset on car ownership, we find that households exposed to congestion charging on their way to work were more likely to adopt an electric vehicle. We document strong heterogeneous patterns of electric vehicle adoption along several socioeconomic dimensions, including household type, income, age, education, work distance and public transit quality. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; electric vehicles; transportation policies; congestion charging; Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy; 267942; 302059; 295789 |
| JEL: | C33 H23 Q53 Q55 Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2021–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111493&r= |
| By: | Khalifa, Sherin; Petri, Svetlana; Henning, Christian H. C. A. |
| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of a new cross-country panel data from Africa and the Middle East for the time period between 1981 and 2015, we show that reductions in per capita income growth rate or domestic food production induced by climate variation significantly increase the probability of civil conflict. A 10% reduction in economic growth or domestic food production leads to a 1.25% and 1.59% increase in the likelihood of civil conflict, respectively. Furthermore, we identify a direct link of climate on the incidence of civil conflict. Additionally, the level of democracy and good governance are good control variables. Regarding the Syrian conflict, when considering 2010 data, the increase in temperature growth explains around 30% of falling income growth as well as 85% of the shrinking food production index and in this way contributed to the onset of war. We explain the probability of ongoing conflict by 43-56%. The two strongest factors explaining the conflict are lagged conflicts and economic development. Adequate economic policies that are able to accelerate economic development, play a role in peace, and avoiding new conflicts. |
| Keywords: | Climate variation,economic growth rate,food production index,civil war |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202001&r= |
| By: | Michalis Drouvelis; Graeme Pearce |
| Abstract: | Standard economic theory suggests that the decision to lie requires careful weighting of the associated economic costs and benefits, raising the question of whether intelligence matters for misbehaviour. Using the die roll paradigm, we compare behaviour between individuals who score either low or high on a Raven test when lying only benefits the subject who lies (Selfish treatment) or a charitable cause (Charity treatment). We find that high Raven individuals are honest in the Selfish treatment; however, their aversion to lying vanishes in the Charity treatment. Our results have important implications for the rapidly growing lying literature, indicating that intelligence is a key characteristic of misbehaviour. |
| Keywords: | intelligence levels, die roll paradigm, honesty |
| JEL: | C90 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9223&r= |
| By: | Lise Arena (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019)); Anthony Hussenot (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03290300&r= |
| By: | Sania Wadud; Robert D. Durand; Marc Gronwald |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of financialisation of futures markets has on the relationship between crude oil futures and equities by using the VAR-DCC-GARCH model. Specifically, by accounting for the systematic patterns of commodity price volatility, namely, seasonality and maturity effects for the pre-financialisation (1993-2003) and post-financialisation (2004-2019) period. While speculation that reflects non-commercial investors’ activity is found to have a negative impact on crude oil futures’ volatility before the financialisation period, open interest as a measure of liquidity has a negative effect after 2004. The finding indicates weakening seasonality in crude oil futures and diminishing Samuelson maturity effect i.e. volatility of the contract increases as it nears to expiration since financialisation. This confirms the importance of accounting for volatility dynamics while contributing to financialisation debate. |
| Keywords: | financialisation, volatility dynamics, Samuelson hypothesis, correlation, seasonality |
| JEL: | C32 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9202&r= |
| By: | Želinský, Tomáš |
| Abstract: | This paper utilizes two measures of subjective well-being to test a hypothesis that a marginal increase in subjective well-being associated with a marginal increase in income is larger for poorer than for richer populations. This hypothesis is examined in the setting of Slovak Roma, who are poor in comparison to the non-Roma population. The results suggest that the correlation between income and satisfaction is greater for the lower-income group (the Roma) than for the higher-income group (majority population). Further, the correlation between income and emotional well-being does not differ between the two groups. |
| Keywords: | Satisfaction,Emotional well-being,Roma,Income,Poverty |
| JEL: | I31 J15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:898&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The new administration’s policies have put the U.S. economy on a strong footing. An effective vaccine rollout has put the number of new COVID-19 cases on a firmly downward path. At the same time, unprecedented fiscal support is quickly restoring the economy back to full employment and generating positive outward spillovers to the world economy. These efforts have not been costless: the path for public debt is far higher; the current account deficit has grown; and very accommodative financial conditions have led to increased corporate and nonbank leverage and rising valuations across a range of assets. The pandemic continues to weigh heavily on those at the lower end of the income distribution, exposing longstanding inequities in access to quality healthcare and education (many of which have an important gender and racial dimension). |
| Date: | 2021–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/162&r= |
| By: | Promit Kanti Chaudhuri (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a differentiated product economy is modeled where firms strategically set up autonomous rival divisions and the divisions play the quantity competition game `a la Cournot or by means of monopolistic competition, where the divisions are unaware of the impact of their output either on the firm's total output or on the total industry output. This case of divisions being unaware of the impact of their outputs on the firm's aggregate output or on the industry total output is termed as `Strategic Inattention'. The incentive to divisionalize still remains within the firms even in the case of the `Strategic Inattention', but the incentive is lower than the case of normal Cournot competition. Next in a duopoly, the firms play a three stage game. In the first stage, the firms decide whether to let their divisions utilize or ignore the information on the impact of their individual output on the firm's total output or industry total output. In the second stage the firms strategically decide on the number of divisions and in the final stage the divisions compete against each other in terms of quantity. It is seen that one firm deciding to be inattentive to the information available and the other firm using that information, is the equilibrium outcome. Thus inattentive and attentive firms coexist in a Subgam Perfect Nash Equilibrium. This result is in sharp contrast to the findings of Cellini et al. (2020). |
| Keywords: | Divisionalization, information, Monopolistic competition, Oligopoly, Strategic interaction |
| JEL: | D43 L11 L13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-020&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Guinea-Bissau is a fragile state with considerable needs to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and address developmental challenges. After an estimated 1.4 percent of GDP contraction in 2020, a modest recovery of about 3.3 percent is projected for 2021 on the back of higher cashew exports, the gradual lifting of COVID containment measures and a more stable political situation. The outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty. An RCF disbursement of SDR 14.2 million (50 percent of quota) was approved in January to provide urgent financing (35 percent of the external gap in 2021) to support critical spending in health and catalyze additional donor resources. The RCF followed two years of protracted political turmoil and delays in reforms, now undertaken by the new government. Public debt was assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense based on the authorities’ commitment to sound policies supported by strong donor engagement and a Fund program. Debt service relief under the CCRT has provided some fiscal space and the country’s participation in the DSSI should also help mobilize additional resources. After the 2021 budget approval within the statutory deadlines, significant and sustained reform efforts are required to meet the WAEMU 3 percent of GDP overall balance criteria by 2025 and bring public debt-to-GDP ratio within 70 percent by end-2026. |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/172&r= |
| By: | Gagliarducci, Stefano (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Tabellini, Marco (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | Ethnic religious organizations are often blamed for slowing down immigrants' assimilation in host societies. This paper offers the first systematic evidence on this topic by focusing on Italian Catholic churches in the US between 1890 and 1920, when four million Italians had moved to America, and anti-Catholic sentiments were widespread. Relying on newly collected data on the presence of Italian Catholic churches across counties over time, we implement a difference-in-differences design. We find that Italian churches reduced the social assimilation of Italian immigrants, lowering intermarriage, residential integration, and naturalization rates. We provide evidence that both stronger coordination within the Italian community and negative stereotyping among natives can explain these effects. Yet, Italian churches had ambiguous effects on immigrants' economic outcomes, and increased literacy and ability to speak English among Italian children. |
| Keywords: | immigration, assimilation, religious organizations |
| JEL: | J15 N31 Z12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14567&r= |
| By: | Josué Diwambuena (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy); Jean-Paul K. Tsasa (Department of Economics, Université du Québec, Montreal) |
| Abstract: | This paper applies both linear and nonlinear structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models using two distinct identifications methods to disentangle the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks for a developing country. As an application, we use macroeconomic data for the Democratic Republic of Congo (Congo), one of the largest and least developed countries in the world with a rich history of domestic political instability and high macroeconomic volatility. Our measure of uncertainty is the world uncertainty index for the Congo recently developed by Ahir et al. (2018) for a panel of developed and developing countries. Using a standard SVAR model with sign restrictions, we provide evidence that an unexpected increase in uncertainty triggers contractions in GDP and investment on impact in the Congo. We show that uncertainty shocks are among the greatest drivers of economic fluctuations. Our results are robust across alternative linear and nonlinear SVAR specifications using the Cholesky decomposition. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty; SVAR; Sign restriction; Congo. |
| JEL: | C30 D80 E32 O40 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps87&r= |
| By: | Kennedy, Gerard (Central Bank of Ireland); Killeen, Neill (Central Bank of Ireland); Skouralis, Alexandros (Central Bank of Ireland); Velasco, Sofia (Central Bank of Ireland); Wosser, Michael (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This Note documents developments in the commercial real estate (CRE) market in Ireland since the onset of the COVID-19 shock as well as examining the factors determining the outlook. The CRE market is important to monitor from a financial stability perspective owing to its size and systemic interlinkages to both the real economy and the wider financial system. We show that the CRE market in Ireland has experienced a downward adjustment in valuations since the onset of the COVID-19 shock with the retail sector particularly affected. We highlight that components of the CRE market such as the retail and office sectors are particularly vulnerable to both near-term and structural implications of the COVID-19 shock such as the rise of online shopping and increased working from home practices. We combine a range of analytical approaches including forecast modelling techniques, the extension of the growth-at-risk framework to CRE and scenario analysis to assess the potential downside risks to the CRE market in Ireland. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:4/fs/21&r= |
| By: | Marc Fleurbaey (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Zuber (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | How to evaluate and compare social prospects when there may be a risk on i) the actual allocation people will receive; ii) the existence of these future people; and iii) their preferences? This paper investigate this question that may arise when considering policies that endogenously affect future people, for instance climate policy. We show that there is no social ordering that meets minimal requirements of fairness, social rationality, and respect for people's ex ante preferences. We explore three ways to avoid this impossibility. First, if we drop the ex ante Pareto requirement, we can obtain fair ex post criteria that take an (arbitrary) expected utility of an equally-distributed equivalent level of well-being. Second, if the social ordering is not an expected utility, we can obtain fair ex ante criteria that assess uncertain individual prospects with a certainty-equivalent measure of well-being. Third, if we accept that interpersonal comparisons rely on VNM utility functions even in absence of risk, we can construct expected utility social orderings that satisfy of some version of Pareto ex ante. |
| Keywords: | Fairness,social risk,intergenerational equity |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03289160&r= |
| By: | Jumah, Adusei (Central University, Accra, Ghana); Somua-Wiafe, Ernest (Central University, Accra, Ghana); Apom, Barnabas (Researchlime Ltd, Accra, Ghana) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a generalized estimating equations approach to investigate the willingness of street hawkers in Accra to exit their trade when offered viable alternatives. We observe a direct relationship between willingness to exit hawking and age. Willingness to exit hawking declines over increasing experience. Hawkers who have encountered arrest are less likely to exit. Also, hawkers who received financial assistance to facilitate their business are less likely to exit. Plus, monthly savings from hawking may indirectly influence a rejection of the offer to start an alternative trade. Finally, the willingness to quit hawking is not significantly influenced by gender, sales revenue, and the road description in the model. The results of the analysis could help improve the success of future intervention programmes. |
| Keywords: | Street hawking, GEE, logit, willingness to exit |
| JEL: | C35 E26 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihswps:34&r= |
| By: | Hamark, Jesper (Department of Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Turner, Russell (Department of Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | For nine decades, the Swedish State Railways (SJ) produced wage records containing all its permanent employees. SJ employed more people than any private employer in Sweden, and the records contain individual-level information across hundreds of occupations: full name, yearly wage, occupational status, year and date of birth, occupational status, time of employment at SJ, etc. This paper serves as a background to a project on wage distribution within SJ, with the aim of tracking the development of, on the one hand, occupational or class-based wage inequality and, on the other, gender-based wage inequality. In this paper, we present the source material in detail, discuss its strengths and weaknesses, and describe the methods used to develop and process the wage records into data. Special attention is given to the adoption and application of HISCLASS, the historical, international social class scheme. |
| Keywords: | Wage distribution; HISCLASS; relative wages; white-collar wages; gender wage gap; the Swedish State Railways; Statens Järnvägar |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J71 N83 N84 |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunhis:0028&r= |
| By: | Éric Gautier (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers endogenous selection models, in particular nonparametric ones. Estimating the unconditional law of the outcomes is possible when one uses instrumental variables. Using a selection equation which is additively separable in a one dimensional unobservable has the sometimes undesirable property of instrument monotonicity. We present models which allow for nonmonotonicity and are based on nonparametric random coefficients indices. We discuss their non parametric identification and apply these results to inference on nonlinear statistics such as the Gini index in surveys when the nonresponse is not missing at random. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03306234&r= |
| By: | Alvaro Mezza; Daniel R. Ringo; Kamila Sommer |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence that increased student loan debts, caused by rising tuitions, increase borrowers’ demand for additional consumer debt, while simultaneously restricting their ability to access it. The net effect of student loan debt on consumer borrowing varies by market, depending on whether the supply or demand channel dominates. In loosely underwritten credit markets, increased student loan debt causes borrowing to increase, while in tightly underwritten markets, increased student loan debt reduces the use of credit. These findings match predictions of a standard lifecycle model of household consumption and borrowing, augmented with a realistic student loan repayment contract. |
| Keywords: | Credit demand and supply; Rising tuition; Access to credit; Student loans; Consumption smoothing |
| JEL: | D15 I22 D14 D10 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-50&r= |
| By: | Francesco Vigliarolo (Catholic University of La Plata, National University of La Plata, University of Buenos Aires [Argentina]) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this article is to propose what can be called a law of ontological reason in economics as opposed to the law of supply and demand. To do this, it uses a phenomenological approach that interprets economics in terms of primary ideas. To this end, it's defined the ontological reason and the space in which it is built in order to introduce the concept of demand of rights and not of consumption. In this context, the relationship that underlies an ontological reason which presupposes a different behavior from that of the law of supply and demand is then described. According to this approach, it is claimed that the latter leads to structural problems. It subordinates the general identity of a country to the interests of individuals, as it focuses on maximizing personal utility that is unrelated to the creation of the rights of men and women living in a context that contains them in a relational way. |
| Keywords: | economics,ontology,phenomenology,demand for rights |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03298795&r= |
| By: | Reyes, Celia M.; Asis, Ronina D.; Arboneda, Arkin A.; Vargas, Anna Rita P. |
| Abstract: | Poverty simulations suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures implemented by the government to contain the spread of the virus will increase the number of poor in the country. As such, various social safety nets were implemented by both the national and local government agencies to help the affected individuals, families, and enterprises cope with the economic effects of COVID-19 and to smoothen their consumption particularly during the initial stages of the national lockdown, albeit temporarily. <p> Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | poverty, Philippines, COVID-19, social amelioration program |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-55&r= |
| By: | Dávila, Andrés O. (Universidad de los Andes); Fernandez Sierra, Manuel (Universidad de los Andes); Zuleta, Hernando (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the upsurge of natural resources income from the commodity price boom of the 2000s on the functional distribution of income. To do so, we build a general equilibrium model of Dutch disease that characterizes how natural resource windfalls affect equilibrium factor shares. The theory suggests that the response of factor shares to exogenous changes in commodity prices depends on the relative intensity in which factors are used in the tradable and natural resource sectors. We construct estimates of income shares accruing to raw labor, human capital, physical capital, and natural resources, and quantify the effect of the resource boom on factor shares. For identification, we use a two-way fixed effects strategy and a differential exposure design to instrument commodity prices. We find that a natural resource boom negatively impacts the total labor, human capital, and physical capital shares, while the raw labor share remains unchanged. Our estimates suggest that the natural resource boom explains nearly 25.7 percent of the global decline of the total labor share during the 2000s. We also find a redistribution effect within labor income that indicates that the fall of the labor share was unevenly distributed against human capital. |
| Keywords: | labor share, factor income shares, natural resource boom, commodity price boom, dutch disease, human capital |
| JEL: | D33 F14 J31 O13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14592&r= |
| By: | Joan Costa-i-Font; Sarah Fleche; Pagan Ricardo |
| Abstract: | Daylight Saving Time (DST) is currently implemented by more than seventy countries, yet we do not have a clear knowledge of how it affects individuals’ welfare. Using a regression discontinuity design combined with a differences-in-differences approach, we find that the Spring DST causes a significant decline in life satisfaction. By inducing a reallocation of time, the transition into DST deteriorates sleep and increases time stress, which in turn affects physical and emotional health. After performing a simple cost-benefit analysis, we find evidence suggestive that ending DST would exert a positive effect on welfare, namely the wellbeing costs associated with DST exceed its benefits. |
| Keywords: | Daylight Saving Time, wellbeing, health, sleep, time stress |
| JEL: | I18 K20 I31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9195&r= |
| By: | Jaydip Sen; Sidra Mehtab |
| Abstract: | Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11371&r= |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Flèche, Sarah (Aix-Marseille University); Pagan, Ricardo (University of Malaga) |
| Abstract: | Daylight Saving Time (DST) is currently implemented by more than seventy countries, yet we do not have a clear knowledge of how it affects individuals' welfare. Using a regression discontinuity design combined with a differences-in-differences approach, we find that the Spring DST causes a significant decline in life satisfaction. By inducing a reallocation of time, the transition into DST deteriorates sleep and increases time stress, which in turn affects physical and emotional health. After performing a simple cost-benefit analysis, we find evidence suggestive that ending DST would exert a positive effect on welfare, namely the wellbeing costs associated with DST exceed its benefits. |
| Keywords: | Daylight Saving Time, wellbeing, health, sleep, time stress |
| JEL: | I18 K2 I31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14570&r= |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | Increases in physical infrastructure spending would boost private-sector productivity in the coming decades, contributing to economic growth that could lower the budgetary cost of that spending. To study such increases, CBO examined two illustrative scenarios that would boost federal funding for a mix of types of physical infrastructure by $500 billion over 10 years. The effects of macroeconomic changes on the budget would depend on how additional infrastructure spending was financed and on the time period considered. |
| JEL: | E60 H40 H50 H60 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:57327&r= |
| By: | Schmidtke, Julia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Hetschko, Clemens (University of Leeds); Schöb, Ronnie (Free University of Berlin); Stephan, Gesine (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Eid, Michael (Freie Universität Berlin); Lawes, Mario (Freie Universität Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Using individual monthly panel data from December 2018 to December 2020, we estimate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and two lockdowns on the mental health and subjective well-being of German workers. Employing an event-study design using individual-specific fixed effects, we find that the first and the second wave of the pandemic reduced workers' mental health substantially. Momentary happiness and life satisfaction also decline in response to Covid-19, but to a smaller extent. We observe adapation in our study outcomes between waves of the pandemic. This applies to a lesser extent to indicators of well-being in certain areas of life, such as satisfaction with the job and with leisure, which are negatively affected, too. Women do not seem to suffer greater well-being losses than men. However, workers in the German short-time work scheme are particularly negatively affected. Our results imply that increased anxiety about the future and restricted personal freedoms are among the drivers of the well-being impact of the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, life satisfaction, depression, affective well-being, app-based survey data, German Job Search Panel |
| JEL: | I31 I19 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14638&r= |
| By: | Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna (UCL Institute of Education); Henderson, Morag (UCL Institute of Education); Shure, Nikki (University College London) |
| Abstract: | While it has been shown that university attendance is strongly predicted by parental education, we know very little about why some potential 'first in family' or first-generation students make it to university and others do not. This paper looks at the role of non-cognitive skills in the university participation of this disadvantaged group in England. We find that conditional on national, high-stakes exam scores and various measures of socioeconomic background, having higher levels of non-cognitive skills, specifically locus of control, academic self-concept, work ethic, and self-esteem, in adolescence is positively related to intergenerational educational mobility to university. Our results indicate that having higher non-cognitive skills helps potential first in family university students to compensate for their relative disadvantage, and they are especially crucial for boys. The most important channel of this relationship seems to be through educational attainment at the end of compulsory schooling. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic gaps, intergenerational educational mobility, higher education, non-cognitive skills |
| JEL: | I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14580&r= |
| By: | Oana Horhogea (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iasi, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic took us all by surprise, affecting all areas of activity at national and international level. This situation has forced us to change both our private and professional life. Depending on the specificity of the activity carried out by each employee, there were sectors of activity that continued their activity with physical presence, with employees going to work every day, but the vast majority had to adapt to the new conditions of activity. What happened on the labor market in this new situation? There were companies that temporarily suspended their activity and later had to close it, because they could no longer cover expenses during the crisis. There were many cases in which the employees' option was to give up their job, temporarily, with managers being put in a position to find solutions and manage them so as to get over these unwanted events. |
| Keywords: | management, benefits, pandemic, tools, team |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01252&r= |
| By: | Maximilian Konradt (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Beatrice Weder di Mauro (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva) |
| Abstract: | What is the effect of climate policies on inflation and economic activity? Answering this question is critical for central banks trying to achieve price stability. This paper studies the experience from existing carbon taxes in Canada and Europe, introduced over the last 30 years. Based on two separate empirical approaches, we find that carbon taxes do not have to be inflationary and may even have deflationary effects. In particular, our evidence suggests that the increase in energy prices was more than offset by a fall in the prices of services and other non-tradables. Our results are robust for Europe and Canada, as well as a number of different country groupings. At least in case of British Columbia, a contraction in household incomes and expenditures, in particular among the richer households, could explain the deflationary effect. |
| Keywords: | Carbon taxes; carbon pricing; inflation; monetary policy; climate change |
| JEL: | E31 E50 Q54 Q43 |
| Date: | 2021–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp17-2021&r= |
| By: | Egami, Hiroyuki; Mano, Yukichi; Matsumoto, Tomoya |
| Abstract: | People in developing economies face substantial income risks and use diverse strategies to mitigate the negative welfare impact. Rural households often send migrants to diversify income sources and depend on remittances to cope with income risks. To examine the risk-coping mechanism of urban migrants and their rural families against the aggregate shock due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyze the seven-round Bangladeshi household panel covering the period before and after the first implementation of COVID-19 lockdown policies. Our event study finds that urban migrants experienced more substantial income loss than their rural families and reduced but not ceased remittances to cope with the aggregate shock jointly. Notably, mobile money services allowed them to continue sending remittances even under the lockdown policies. |
| Keywords: | migrants, remittances, risk coping, aggregate shock, mobile money, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | O12 O15 F23 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-109&r= |
| By: | Patricia Pignier-Hondareyte (LIREM - Laboratoire de Recherche en Management (LIREM) - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Patricia Pignier Hondareyte |
| Abstract: | Digital pedagogical innovation can be achieved by the provision of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) applications, which claim to support pedagogical methods. In the field of higher education, particularly, this leads on the one hand to the training of the teaching staff in the use of the digital pedagogical applications, and on the other hand to the monitoring of the dedicated support services that ensure the development and maintenance of these tools. This research will focus on the relationship between teaching staff and support services and their respective activities. It will address the question about the implementation of digital pedagogical applications and collaboration of these two centers of expertise. The research will be based on an analysis of 28 in-depth interviews. It aims to enrich our understanding of the difficulties related to human resource management in the deployment of digital teaching tools to research professors and support services. |
| Abstract: | L'innovation pédagogique par le numérique consiste en la mise à disposition d'applications informatiques pour l'enseignement. On parle des TICE, ou Technologies de l'Information et de la Communication pour l'Enseignement. Ces TICE sont supposées accompagner et renforcer l'enseignement en mettant le numérique au service de la pédagogie. Dans l'enseignement supérieur, en particulier, ce type d'innovation conduit d'une part les enseignants-chercheurs à se former à l'utilisation des outils pédagogiques numériques et d'autre part les services supports dédiés à assurer le développement et la maintenance de ces outils. Cette recherche portera sur l'articulation des activités entre acteurs de l'enseignement et acteurs des services supports. La question de la collaboration de ces deux pôles de compétences sera alors abordée. La recherche s'appuiera sur l'analyse de 28 entretiens approfondis. Cette communication souhaite enrichir la compréhension des difficultés liées à la gestion des ressources humaines dans le déploiement des outils pédagogiques numériques auprès des enseignants-chercheurs et des services supports. |
| Keywords: | training,skill,profession,digital pedagogical tools,formation,compétence,métier,outils pédagogiques numériques |
| Date: | 2021–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03293771&r= |
| By: | Ademmer, Martin; Beckmann, Joscha; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia |
| Abstract: | The German economy is picking up speed again. After the resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic had interrupted the economic recovery in the winter half-year, GDP will expand at a fast pace in the further course of the year and exceed its pre-crisis level again. With the removal of the pandemic-related restrictions, activity will rebound, especially in those areas that were previously particularly burdened. Retail trade and contact-intensive services in particular are likely to benefit from the rebound in private household consumption. For the time being, however, the recovery will be delayed in the manufacturing industry. The strong global recovery has brought with it multi-layered supply bottlenecks that are noticeably hampering production in many firms. Despite the very good order situation, production in the manufacturing industry will therefore probably only gradually return to its recovery path in the second half of the year, provided that the supply bottlenecks then gradually ease. With the supply bottlenecks, price pressures have also increased, especially as economic momentum is high worldwide. Thus, prices for raw materials, intermediate goods and transport services have recently been on a broad upward trend. All in all, GDP is expected to grow by 3.9 percent this year and by 4.8 percent in 2022. Consumer prices will rise at a much faster rate of probably 2.6 percent this year and by around 2 percent in 2022. |
| Keywords: | Corona crisis,COVID19,Business Cycle Germany,Fiscal Policy & National Budgets,Labor Market |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:80&r= |
| By: | Giuseppe Ferro (ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)); Tatyana Kovalenko (ETH Zurich); Didier Sornette (ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC); Swiss Finance Institute; Southern University of Science and Technology; Tokyo Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We propose a new parametrization of Quantum Decision Theory (QDT), based on Rank Dependent Utility Theory (RDU). Using experimental data made of choices between pairs of lotteries, we compare QDT with "classical" decision theories, RDU and Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). At the aggregate level, calibrating together all decisions performed by all subjects (representative agent approach), we find that CPT-based QDT outperforms, with the quantum models always improving their classical counterpart. At the individual level, adopting a hierarchical maximum likelihood estimation to avoid overfitting, we classify decision makers as either RDU, RDU-based QDT, CPT or CPT-based QDT. Our major findings are the following: the quantum attraction factor plays a key role in describing subjects’ behaviors; there is a considerable heterogeneity across subjects, at odds with the representative agent approach; RDU and RDU-based QDT describe a larger fraction of subjects than CPT and CPT-based QDT, again at odds with the conclusion using the representative agent approach; a temporal stability of asset integration attitudes is found for a good fraction of the subjects; another significant fraction of subjects may be using mixtures of mental models, which are elicited selectively depending on the nature of the presented choice alternatives. |
| Keywords: | choice under risk, quantum decision theory, rank-dependent utility theory, cumulative prospect theory |
| JEL: | A12 C44 D81 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2149&r= |
| By: | Matthew Hoops; Robert J. Kurtzman |
| Abstract: | Beginning in late February 2020, market liquidity for corporate bonds dried up and corporate bond credit spreads soared amid broad financial market dislocations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The causes of this liquidity dry-up and the spike in corporate bond spreads remain subjects of debate. |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-07-30-1&r= |
| By: | Nils Köbis (Center for Humans and Machines); Jean-François Bonnefon (UT1 - Université de Toulouse 1 Capitole); Iyad Rahwan (Center for Humans and Machines) |
| Abstract: | Machines powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) are now influencing the behavior of humans in ways that are both like and unlike the ways humans influence each other. In light of recent research showing that other humans can exert a strong corrupting influence on people's ethical behavior, worry emerges about the corrupting power of AI agents. To estimate the empirical validity of these fears, we review the available evidence from behavioral science, human-computer interaction, and AI research. We propose that the main social roles through which both humans and machines can influence ethical behavior are (a) role model, (b) advisor, (c) partner, and (d) delegate. When AI agents become influencers (role models or advisors), their corrupting power may not exceed (yet) the corrupting power of humans. However, AI agents acting as enablers of unethical behavior (partners or delegates) have many characteristics that may let people reap unethical benefits while feeling good about themselves, indicating good reasons for worry. Based on these insights, we outline a research agenda that aims at providing more behavioral insights for better AI oversight. |
| Keywords: | machine behavior,behavioral ethics,corruption,artificial intelligence |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03292360&r= |
| By: | Boone, Catherine; Lukalo, Fibian; Joireman, Sandra |
| Abstract: | Smallholder settlement schemes have played a prominent role in Kenya's contested history of state-building, land politics, and electoral mobilization. This paper presents the first georeferenced dataset documenting scheme location, boundaries, and attributes of Kenya's 533 official settlement schemes, as well as the first systematic data on scheme creation since 1980. The data show that almost half of all government schemes were created after 1980, as official rural development rationales for state-sponsored settlement gave way to more explicitly welfarist and electoralist objectives. Even so, logics of state territorialization to fix ethnicized, partisan constituencies to state-defined territorial units pervade the history of scheme creation over the entire 1962–2016 period, as theorized in classic political geography works on state territorialization. While these “geopolitics” of regime construction are fueled by patronage politics, they also sustain practices of land allocation that affirm the moral and political legitimacy of grievance-backed claims for land. This fuels on-going contestation around political representation and acute, if socially-fragmented, demands for state-recognition of land rights. Our findings are consistent with recent political geography and interdisciplinary work on rural peoples' demands for state recognition of land rights and access to natural resources. Kenya's history of settlement scheme creation shows that even in the country's core agricultural districts, where the reach of formal state authority is undisputed, the territorial politics of power-consolidation and resource allocation continues to be shaped by social demands and pressures from below. |
| Keywords: | Kenya; territorial politics; resettlement; political economy; land policy; ES/R005753/1; UKRI block grant |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109307&r= |
| By: | Chakravorty, Bhaskar; Bhatiya, Apurav Yash; Imbert, Clément; Lohnert, Maximilian; Panda, Poonam; Rathelot, Roland |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence on the short and long-term impact of the first COVID-19 wave on India's rural youth. We interviewed about 2,000 vocational trainees from Bihar and Jharkhand between March 2020 and March 2021. We report a stark difference between men and women: while many male workers took up informal employment, most female workers dropped out of the labour force. Using a randomised experiment, we find that a government supported digital job platform does not increase job search or employment. Our findings suggest that bridging the gap between rural youths and urban formal labour markets requires much more active and targeted policy interventions, especially for female workers. |
| Keywords: | Youth unemployment,gender,vocational training,public policy |
| JEL: | J2 J3 J6 J7 M5 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:909&r= |
| By: | Bohdana Kurylo |
| Abstract: | Previous papers on the impacts of same-race teachers have documented that students taught by same-race teachers improve their performance on state exams. However, little is known about whether the positive impact extends beyond test scores to student behavioral outcomes. Using the random assignment of teachers to the U.S. public schools within the Measures of Effective Teaching (MET) project, I show that same-race teachers increase the effectiveness of communications with Black students. I find that this effect is driven by better teacher explanations and consequent improved student understanding, which aligns with the literature about culturally relevant pedagogy. Additionally, I do not find empirical evidence supporting two alternative explanations for the positive effects of a same-race teacher on communication: i) higher general communication ability of Black teachers and ii) more teacher attention directed towards same-race students. Understanding the impacts of same-race teachers is of great importance, as student behavioral outcomes predict their success in the long-term perspective. Further, the findings may also suggest that training non-minority teachers in using culturally relevant pedagogy may improve the performance of disadvantaged minority students in the short-term by complementing diversification of the teacher labor force. |
| Keywords: | same-race teacher; teacher-student communication; teacher expectations; student beliefs; |
| JEL: | I20 I21 J15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp695&r= |
| By: | Theresa Entringer; Hannes Kröger |
| Abstract: | This study compares the level of self-reported mental health and well-being in Germany in the second Covid-19 related lockdown (January/February 2021) with the situation in the first lockdown (March to July 2020). In the second lockdown, satisfaction with health decreased and concerns about health increased compared to the first lockdown. However, both scores remained well above pre-pandemic levels. Further, compared to pre-pandemic levels loneliness remained strongly elevated during the second lockdown, but did not further increase compared to the first lockdown. Depression and anxiety symptoms decreased slightly in the second lockdown compared to the first lockdown and were overall comparable to the levels in 2016. Affective well-being and life satisfaction decreased slightly in the second lockdown compared to the first lockdown and pre-pandemic levels. Especially women, younger people and people with a direct migration background suffered most during the second lockdown: They reported higher loneliness, more depression and anxiety symptoms (or a smaller decrease in the symptoms reported), less affective well-being and a lower life satisfaction. At the same time, socioeconomic factors such as education and income played a smaller role for differences in mental health and well-being than before the pandemic. Die vorliegende Studie vergleicht das Niveau der selbstberichteten psychischen Gesundheit und des Wohlbefindens in Deutschland im zweiten Covid-19 Lockdown (Januar/Februar 2021) mit der Situation im ersten Lockdown (März bis Juli 2020). Im zweiten Lockdown sank die Zufriedenheit mit der Gesundheit und stiegen die Sorgen um die Gesundheit im Vergleich zum ersten Lockdown. Beide Werte blieben aber weiterhin deutlich über dem Vor-Pandemie Niveau. Die Einsamkeit der in Deutschland lebenden Menschen war auch im zweiten Lockdown im Vergleich zum Vor-Pandemie Niveau noch stark erhöht, stieg jedoch im Vergleich zum ersten Lockdown nicht weiter an. Depressions- und Angstsymptome sanken im zweiten Lockdown im Vergleich zum ersten Lockdown wieder leicht und waren damit vergleichbar zum Niveau in 2016. Darüber sanken das affektive Wohlbefinden und die Lebenszufriedenheit im zweiten Lockdown im Vergleich zum ersten Lockdown und dem Vor-Pandemie Niveau leicht. Es zeigt sich, dass insbesondere Frauen, jüngere Menschen und Menschen mit direktem Migrationshintergrund unter dem zweiten Lockdown litten: Sie berichteten eine höhere Einsamkeit, eine höhere Depressions- und Angstsymptomatik (bzw. einen geringeren Rückgang der Symptomatik im Vergleich zum ersten Lockdown), ein geringeres affektives Wohlbefinden und eine geringere Lebenszufriedenheit. Gleichzeitig spielten sozioökonomische Faktoren wie Bildung und Einkommen eine geringere Rolle für Unterschiede in der psychischen Gesundheit und dem Wohlbefinden als vor der Pandemie. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1136&r= |
| By: | Gerald A. Carlino |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the enforceability of employee non compete agreements affects the entry of new establishments and jobs created by these new firms. We use a panel of startup activity for the U.S. states for the period 1977 to 2013. We exploit Michigan’s inadvertent policy reversal in 1985 that transformed the state from a non enforcing to an enforcing state as a quasinatural experiment to estimate the causal effect of enforcement on startup activity. In a difference-in-difference framework, we find little support for the widely held view that enforcement of non-compete agreements negatively affects the entry rate of new firms or the rate of jobs created by new firms. We find that increased enforcement had no effect on the entry rate of startups, but a positive effect on jobs created by these startups in Michigan relative to a counterfactual of states that did not enforce such covenants pre- and post-treatment. Specifically, we find that a doubling of enforcement led to an increase of about 8 percent in the startup job creation rate in Michigan. We also find evidence that enforcing non-competes positively affected the number of high-tech establishments and the level of high tech employment in Michigan. Extending our analysis to consider the effect of increased enforcement on patent activity, we find that enforcement had differential effects across technological classifications. Importantly, increased enforcement had a positive and significant effect on the number of Mechanical patents in Michigan, the most important patenting classification in that state. |
| Keywords: | Startup activity; Non-compete agreements; Regional economic growth. |
| JEL: | O30 O38 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:92949&r= |
| By: | Willem THORBECKE |
| Abstract: | Semiconductors are vital for countless applications. The pandemic generated a surge in IT spending and produced a shortage of semiconductor devices. The semiconductor industry also faces geopolitical challenges as many fear the concentration of production in East Asia. This paper examines the challenges the industry faces and considers possible solutions. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21064&r= |
| By: | Umar Mohammed (Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to lose its skilled workers through migration in a form of brain drain. In return remittances from these migrant workers to the region have been surging and now constitute a major external source of finance. Do these increasing inflow of remittances contribute to human development? This paper examines the impact of remittances on human development in 30 SSA countries using the system Generalized Method of Moments (sGMM) approach for the period 2004-2018. The empirical results show that remittance inflows impact positively on human development in SSA. Based on the empirical results, it is imperative for SSA countries to have a clear-cut policy framework and strategies on migration to attract, increase and harness the full benefit of remittances. |
| Keywords: | Brain drain, Generalized Method of Moments, Human development, Remittances |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01237&r= |
| By: | Masud Alam |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the assumption of homogeneous effects of federal tax changes across the U.S. states and identifies where and why that assumption may not be valid. More specifically, what determines the transmission mechanism of tax shocks at the state level? How vital are states' fiscal structures, financial conditions, labor market rigidities, and industry mix? Do these economic and structural characteristics drive the transmission mechanism of the tax changes at the state level at different horizons? This study employs a panel factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) technique to answer these issues. The findings show that state economies respond homogeneously in terms of employment and price levels; however, they react heterogeneously in real GDP and personal income growth. In most states, these reactions are statistically significant, and the heterogeneity in the effects of tax cuts is significantly related to the state's fiscal structure, manufacturing and financial composition, and the labor market's rigidity. A cross-state regression analysis shows that states with higher tax elasticity, higher personal income tax, strict labor market regulation, and economic policy uncertainties are relatively less responsive to federal tax changes. In contrast, the magnitude of the response in real GDP, personal income, and employment to tax cuts is relatively higher in states with a larger share of finance, manufacturing, lower tax burdens, and flexible credit markets. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13678&r= |
| By: | Federico Huneeus; Conrad Miller; Christopher Neilson; Seth Zimmerman |
| Abstract: | A growing body of evidence shows that differences in firm-specific pay premiums account for a large share of the gender pay gap. This paper asks how a common form of pre-labor market skill specialization, college major, mediates access to high-paying firms, and what this means for the gender earnings gap. Using employer-employee tax data from Chile matched to educational records, we show that differences in college major account for more than two-thirds of the firm contribution to the gender earnings gap among college admits. Degrees in Technology, which are numerous, male-dominated, and associated with high firm premiums, drive these effects. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:917&r= |
| By: | Frederic Boissay; Emilia Garcia-Appendini; Steven Ongena |
| Abstract: | Is conventional monetary policy transmitted through the demand for and supply of intermediate goods in an economy? Analyzing unique US data on corporate linkages, we document that downstream and upstream corporate financial health are instrumental for the transmission of monetary policy. Our estimates suggest that contractionary changes in monetary conditions lead to reductions in both the demand and the supply of all financially constrained business partners, thereby creating bottlenecks, which induce the linked firms themselves to curtail their own activities ("ripple effects"). Overall, our estimates suggest that changes in monetary conditions may have a quantitatively larger impact on firms' operations through the changes in demand and supply induced by constrained business partners than through the firms' own financial conditions. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission, supply chain, aggregate demand, cost channel |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:957&r= |
| By: | Teye, Evans Sackey; Quarshie, Philip Tetteh |
| Abstract: | Rural and agricultural finance innovations have significant potential to improve the livelihoods and food security of the poor. Although microfinance has been widely studied, an extensive knowledge gap still exists on the nuts and bolts of expanding access to rural and agricultural finance. This study uses focus group discussion, key informant interview, and quantitative household survey to explore how smallholders access credits and loans influence adoption of modern production technologies and what are perceived limitations to access these financial instruments in the Shia-Osuduku District in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana. The specific objectives of the study are; (1) to assess the challenges rice farmers face in accessing finance, (2) to determine if access to finance impacts the adoption of modern rice production technologies and (3) to determine whether loan investments in improved technologies increase productivity and income levels of farmers. The study noted that issues of mistrust for smallholder farmers by financial institutions act as barriers to facilitating their access to loans and credits. Banks and financial institutions relay their mistrust through actions such as requesting outrageous collateral, guarantors, a high sum of savings capital, and a high interest rate for agriculture loans, delays, and bureaucratic processes in accessing loans. The study suggested that enabling policy environment and frameworks with a supportive rural infrastructure such as warehouse receipt systems can significantly increase farmers' access to credit instruments for investment in modern technologies to increase agricultural productivity, which is essential to address food insecurities and rural poverty issues in Ghana. |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9ue2k&r= |
| By: | Lou, Loretta |
| Abstract: | Purpose This purpose of this paper is to explain Macau’s successful pandemic response through an analysis of its social, political and economic landscapes. In particular, it focusses on the economic relief brought by casino capitalism in this era of COVID-19. Design/methodology/approach As mobility is highly restricted during the coronavirus pandemic, digital technologies have become central to ongoing social science research. Thanks to videoconferencing programmes such as Zoom, Facetime and WhatsApp, the author was able to carry out virtual interviews with 13 local people from different sectors of Macau in July 2020. In addition to in-depth interviews, the author also undertook an extensive review of the Macau government’s pandemic policies. Findings This paper argues that the Macau government’s swift and effective coronavirus policies are deeply intertwined with the urban fabric and political economy of the city’s casino capitalism, which endowed the government with surplus funds and an infrastructure that enabled the implementation of an array of strict measures that few other countries could afford to subsidise. Factors that have led to Macau’s extraordinarily low rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths include: competent leadership and the public’s high compliance with mandatory health measures; the generous benefits and financial support for citizens and businesses; and the compulsory quarantine required of all incoming travellers, who are lodged in hotel rooms left empty when casino tourists stopped coming. All of these measures have been made possible by a political economy backed by the peculiarities of casino capitalism and its resultant tax revenues. Research limitations/implications Future research could compare the case of Macau with other small but affluent economies (ideally economies that do not depend on the gambling industry) to ascertain the role of casino capitalism in building up economic resilience. Originality/value Although previous studies tend to emphasise the negative impacts of casino capitalism, this paper shows how tax revenues and infrastructure from the gambling industry can make a contribution to the host society in times of crisis. |
| Keywords: | political economy; Macau; gaming industry; Covid-19; casino capitalism; pandemic response; coronavirus |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2021–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111026&r= |
| By: | Bobba, Matteo (Toulouse School of Economics); Ederer, Tim (University of Toulouse I); Leon-Ciliotta, Gianmarco (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Neilson, Christopher A. (Princeton University); Nieddu, Marco (University of Cagliari) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how increasing teacher compensation at hard-to-staff schools can reduce inequality in access to qualifed teachers. Leveraging an unconditional change in the teacher compensation structure in Perú, we first show causal evidence that increasing salaries at less desirable locations attracts better quality applicants and improves student test scores. We then estimate a model of teacher preferences over local amenities, school characteristics, and wages using geocoded job postings and rich application data from the nationwide centralized teacher assignment system. Our estimated model suggests that the current policy is both inefficient and not large enough to effectively undo the inequality of initial conditions that hard-to-staff schools and their communities face. Counterfactual analyses that incorporate equilibrium sorting effects characterize alternative wage schedules and quantify the cost of reducing structural inequality in the allocation of teacher talent across schools. |
| Keywords: | inequality, teacher school choice, teacher wages, matching with contracts |
| JEL: | J31 J45 I21 C93 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14581&r= |
| By: | Sébastien Duchêne (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Adrien Nguyen-Huu (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier); Dimitri Dubois (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marc Willinger (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of environmental externalities on portfolio decisions in a lab-inthe-field experiment on finance professionals and students. Subjects show pro-environmental preferences, with a strong asymmetry because of the sign of the externality. They are prone to accept lower return for positive environmental impact, but not to bear increased risk. Finance professionals are more pro-environmental than students, particularly regarding negative externalities, and less influenced by a ranking signal about environmental performance. Additional control tasks show that pro-social and pro-environmental preferences have much less influence on portfolio composition than market practices for finance professionals, but they are significant predictors for students. |
| Abstract: | Nous évaluons l'impact d'externalités environnementales sur les décisions de portefeuille dans le cadre d'une expérience en laboratoire sur des professionnels de la finance et des étudiants. Les sujets exhibent des préférences pro-environnementales, avec une forte asymétrie due au signe de l'externalité. Ils sont enclins à accepter un rendement inférieur pour un impact environnemental positif, mais pas à supporter un risque accru. Les professionnels de la finance sont plus pro-environnementaux que les étudiants, notamment en ce qui concerne les externalités négatives, et moins influencés par un signal de rang concernant la performance environnementale. Des tâches de contrôle supplémentaires montrent que les préférences pro-sociales et pro-environnementales ont beaucoup moins d'influence sur la composition du portefeuille que les pratiques de marché pour les professionnels de la finance, mais qu'elles sont des prédicteurs significatifs pour les étudiants. |
| Date: | 2021–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03285376&r= |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Asheim, Bjørn (University of Stavanger); Isaksen, Arne (Universit of Agder); Nielsen, Hjalti (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Human agency has become a core topic in economic geography complementing traditional, structural approaches to explain regional development. This paper contributes firstly with a discussion of the theoretical and conceptual relationships between the agency of individuals, organizations, and systems. Secondly, it proposes a novel analytical framework for studying how human agency, combined with external changes affects regional economic development, and how regional structural preconditions and external changes explain the activation of change agency. Thirdly, the relevance of the framework is examined through comparative studies of about 20 years of industrial development in three Norwegian regions. This illuminates the importance of human agency in regional transformation processes, how regional preconditions influence but not determine the activation of change agency, as well as why and how regional policy plays a role in the emergence of change agency. Yet, future research needs to investigate the context conditions, which promote or hinder the activation of change agency, to trace changes in economic activities over time and link it to causal mechanisms, and to pay attention to the unintended consequences of change agency in the longer-term. |
| Keywords: | human agency; regional development; structural transformation |
| JEL: | L60 O10 O30 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2021_007&r= |
| By: | Laurent CLERC,; Anne-Lise BONTEMPS-CHANEL,; Sébastien DIOT,; George OVERTON,; Solène SOARES DE ALBERGARIA,; Lucas VERNET,; Maxime LOUARDI. |
| Abstract: | L’exercice pilote climatique conduit par l’ACPR est inédit. C’est en effet la première fois qu’un superviseur organise avec les groupes bancaires et organismes d’assurance placés sous sa responsabilité un exercice d’évaluation des risques associés au changement climatique aussi complet et exigeant. Son caractère inédit et ambitieux réside dans l’horizon sur lequel les risques sont évalués (30 ans), les méthodologies employées (analyse de scénarios déclinés au niveau des secteurs économiques), ses hypothèses novatrices (notamment de bilan dynamique), sa couverture des risques physique et de transition, enfin, le fait que les institutions participantes évaluent directement leurs risques sur la base d’hypothèses communes. Il illustre le rôle moteur joué par les autorités et la place financière de Paris et les progrès accomplis dans la lutte contre le dérèglement climatique, depuis l’adoption de la Loi sur la transition énergétique et la croissance verte et la signature de l’Accord de Paris en 2015. |
| Keywords: | Changement climatique ; prix du carbone ; projections à long terme ; régulation bancaire ; scénarios ; tests de résistance. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 H23 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:analys:122&r= |
| By: | Franz Dietrich (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Brian Jabarian |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03282198&r= |
| By: | Yusuf Sofiyandi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Yusuf Reza Kurniawan (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Khoirunurrofik (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Prayoga Wiradisuria (PT. MRT Jakarta); Dikki Nur Ahmad Saleh (PT. MRT Jakarta) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of mobility restriction on daily mass rapid transit (MRT) ridership in Jakarta-Indonesia, and its implication for the farebox revenues during the pandemic COVID-19 outbreak. For the analysis, we primarily used the fare cost and daily passenger datasets of 156 origin-destination pair routes from April 2019 to May 2021. Three types of mobility restrictions are examined: (i) 50% of maximum passenger capacity setting, (ii) station closures, and (iii) changes in service operating hours. A panel dynamic fixed-effects regression model was fitted to quantify the economic losses on farebox revenue due to the mobility restrictions. We find that the average daily MRT ridership decrease by 56.6% due to capacity restriction, 32.6% due to station closures, and 1.7% due to a one-hour decrease in service operating hours. The station closures lead to a route diversion with a significant increase in ridership among other stations. While the effects of capacity restriction and changes in service operation hours have a larger impact during weekdays, the effect of station closure is more pronounced during the weekend. Our estimation results also reveal that the mobility restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic have caused a loss of IDR 179.4 billion or equal to USD12.4 million in terms of potential farebox revenues to the MRT train service operator. This amount could contribute to 65.6% of total realized farebox revenues in 2019–2020. This finding suggests the importance of adjusting the tariff subsidy policy in times of crisis, considering that the company still bears the operating costs despite decreasing operating hours. It also advises the company to take this crisis as momentum to enhance operational efficiency and expand the business prospect from non-fare box revenue. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 — pandemic — public transport — MRT — ridership — mobility restriction |
| JEL: | L92 O18 R40 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202162&r= |
| By: | Fulvia Fringuellotti; Joao A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | We show that insurance companies have almost nonupled their investments in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in the post-crisis period, reaching total holdings of $125 billion in 2019. The growth in CLOs’ investments has far outpaced that of loans and corporate bonds, and was characterized by a strong preference for mezzanine tranches rated investment grade over triple-A rated tranches. We document that these phenomena reflect a search for yield behavior. Conditional on capital charges, insurance companies invest more heavily in bonds and CLO tranches with higher yields. Preferences for CLO tranches derived from tranches’ higher yields relative to bonds with the same rating, and increased following the 2010 capital regulatory reform, resulting in insurance companies holding more than 40 percent of mezzanine tranches outstanding in 2019. In the process, insurance companies created the demand for the risky tranches that are critical to the CLO issuance. |
| Keywords: | insurance companies; CLOs; regulatory arbitrage; corporate loans; securitization |
| JEL: | G11 G20 G22 |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:92942&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic vulnerabilities have declined since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The economy is expected to rebound swiftly in 2021 as activities return to normality and the population is increasingly vaccinated. External imbalances are contained. The fiscal position is gradually consolidated as the authorities remain committed to the revised fiscal rule, which will ensure a declining path for the NFPS debt. The outlook remains subject to elevated risks, including uncertainties arising from possible more contagious variants of the COVID-19 virus. Domestic risks include setbacks in implementing the FATF action plan to exit the grey list, delays in fiscal consolidation, and a prolonged pandemic that could exacerbate socioeconomic hardship and derail economic policies and the recovery. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/175&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | After over two decades of unprecedented economic expansion, Panama’s economy contracted sharply in 2020 amidst challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic. As conditions rapidly deteriorated, Panama requested financial support under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for 100 percent of quota equivalent to US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.4 billion) to address immediate balance of payments needs, which the IMF Executive Board approved on April 15, 2020. Subsequently, uncertainties magnified, and Panama requested a two-year arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) for 500 percent of quota, equivalent to US$2.7 billion (SDR 1.9 billion), as insurance against extreme external shocks, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on January 19, 2021. |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/173&r= |
| By: | Savelyev, Peter A. (College of William and Mary); Ward, Benjamin C. (University of Georgia); Krueger, Robert F. (University of Minnesota); McGue, Matt (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | We analyze data from the Minnesota Twin Registry (MTR), combined with the Socioeconomic Survey of Twins (SST), and new mortality data, and contribute to two bodies of literature. First, we demonstrate a beneficial causal effect of education on health and longevity in contrast to other twin-based studies of the US population, which show little or no effect of education on health. Second, we present evidence that parents compensate for differences in their children's health endowments through education, but find no evidence that parents reinforce differences in skill endowments. We argue that there is a bias towards detecting reinforcement both in this paper and in the literature. Despite this bias, we still find statistical evidence of compensating behavior. We account for observed and unobserved confounding factors, sample selection bias, and measurement error in education. |
| Keywords: | health, education, intrafamily resource allocation, skill endowment, health endowment, longevity, twin study, Minnesota Twin Registry |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I24 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14600&r= |
| By: | Tiziana M. Gauci |
| Abstract: | This study looks at the trends in educational attainment of the Maltese population over the last 15 years. Data obtained from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show that the educational attainment of the Maltese workforce has ameliorated significantly during this period, though it still falls short of the European Union (EU) benchmark in some respects. The first part of this study looks at the long-term trends in education attainment in Malta and how it compared with other EU countries. In terms of EU targets, Malta had reached its national target with respect to the percentage of persons aged between 30 and 34 years having a tertiary level of education already in 2017. On the contrary, despite the country managed to half the rate of early school leavers from its 2005 levels, the rate of early school leavers in 2020 is still short of the EU’s benchmark. The second part compares the earnings, employment and unemployment of high skilled workers compared to those with lower levels of education. The third section looks at the main factors behind the increase in education attainment. The share of population having a tertiary level of education increased to 28.0% in 2020, up from 10.3% in 2005. In addition, this section attempts to measure the efficiency of public spending in Malta, with indicators for primary, secondary and tertiary indicators, as well as the role of migration. |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mlt:ppaper:0321&r= |
| By: | David Laibson; Peter Maxted; Benjamin Moll |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model where households have present-biased time preferences and naive beliefs. The model features a liquid asset and illiquid home equity, which households can use as collateral for borrowing. Because present bias substantially increases households' marginal propensity to consume (MPC), present bias increases the impact of fiscal policy. Present bias also amplifies the effect of monetary policy but, at the same time, slows down the speed of monetary transmission. Interest rate cuts incentivize households to conduct cash-out refinances, which become targeted liquidity-injections to high-MPC households. But present bias also introduces a motive for households to procrastinate refinancing their mortgages, which slows down the speed with which this monetary channel operates. |
| JEL: | D14 D15 E03 E2 E21 E5 E62 E71 G4 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29094&r= |
| By: | Zolea, Riccardo |
| Abstract: | The relation between interest and profit rate is crucial, as it has a major impact on income distribution, and it is relevant for the interpretation of the functioning of the economic system. After reviewing the literature, I try to interpret this relation between rates using banking profitability as the keystone. The condition that the capital employed in the banking industry should receive a profit rate at least equal to the general profit rate, combined with a careful examination of the functioning of the banking sector, makes conceivable an endogenous determination of the interest rate. The bank interest rate on loans is the price of the "loan" commodity, given the production conditions of the banking sector, where the rate set by the central bank constitutes the price of an input of the banking industry. I also analyse the formation of the interest rate structure, taking as starting points the main refinancing rate set by the central bank and the normal profitability of bank capital, with the lending rate on bank loans being the upper margin and the deposit rate the lower margin of the interest rate corridor. The interest rates structure is thus determined by several elements, confirming Marx's idea of a heterogeneous determination of interest rates. Alternatively, it can be assumed that, as the banking industry is characterized by a high degree of monopoly, its profit rate is higher than the average for the rest of the economy. In Marxian terms this reflects contrast between financial capitalists and productive capitalists, where the high degree of monopoly of the banking sector becomes a weapon to capture a higher share of total profits. |
| Keywords: | Bank profitability, rate of profit, interest rate, Marx |
| JEL: | E43 G2 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108973&r= |
| By: | Clément de Chaisemartin (Universite de Californie, J-PAL Europe - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab - Europe); Quentin Daviot (J-PAL Europe - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab - Europe); Marc Gurgand (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, J-PAL Europe - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab - Europe); Sophie Kern (Laboratoire de dynamique du langage - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Quand un enfant issu d'un milieu défavorisé entre à l'école, il maitrise en moyenne moins bien le langage qu'un enfant issu d'un milieu favorisé. Ce désavantage le pénalisera dans ses apprentissages pendant sa scolarité, augmentera ses risques de décrochage et aura des conséquences sur ses conditions de vie futures. De nombreux travaux de recherche soutiennent que l'on peut cependant corriger cette situation dès la petite enfance, par exemple en introduisant des programmes de haute qualité éducative en crèche. Le programme Parler Bambin vise à former les professionnelles de crèche pour renforcer leurs connaissances et leurs pratiques quotidiennes dans le domaine du langage et de l'interaction langagière, et ainsi améliorer le développement langagier des jeunes enfants. Le programme a pour vocation de réduire ces inégalités précoces de développement langagier, dans l'espoir, à terme, de réduire les inégalités scolaires et socio-économiques. Cette étude évalue les effets du programme Parler Bambin sur les pratiques des professionnelles et sur le développement des enfants. Pour ce faire, nous avons mené une évaluation randomisée à grande échelle auprès de 94 crèches réparties sur le territoire de la France métropolitaine, en suivant des enfants issus de familles défavorisées. Nous avons travaillé avec ces crèches pendant trois années dans le but d'estimer des effets de court et de plus long termes. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03288700&r= |
| By: | Shan Huang; Hannes Ullrich |
| Abstract: | Human antibiotic consumption is considered the main driver of antibiotic resistance. Reducing human antibiotic consumption without compromising health care quality poses one of the most important global health policy challenges. A crucial condition for designing effective policies is to identify who drives antibiotic treatment decisions, physicians or patient demand. We measure the causal effect of physician practice style on antibiotic intake and health outcomes exploiting variation in patient-physician relations due to physician exits in general practice in Denmark. We estimate that physician practice style accounts for 53 to 56 percent of between-clinic differences in all antibiotic consumption, and for 74 to 81 percent in the consumption of second-line antibiotic drugs. We find little evidence that low prescribing styles adversely affect health outcomes measured as preventable hospitalizations due to infections. Our findings suggest that policies to curb antibiotic resistance are most effective when aimed at improving physician decision-making, in particular when they target high prescribers. High prescribing practice styles are positively associated with physician age and negatively with staff size and the availability of diagnostic tools, suggesting that improvements in the quality of diagnostic information is an important path to improved decisions. |
| Keywords: | antibiotic prescribing, practice styles, general practitioners |
| JEL: | I11 J44 I12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1958&r= |
| By: | Baer, Moritz; Campiglio, Emanuele; Deyris, Jérôme |
| Abstract: | This article studies how institutional dynamics might affect the implementation of climate-related financial policies. First, we propose a three-dimensional framework to distinguish: i) motives for policy implementation (prudential or promotional); ii) policy instruments (informational, incentive or coercive); and iii) implementing authorities (political or delegated). Second, we use this framework to show how sustainable financial interventions in certain jurisdictions - most notably, Europe - rely solely on informational policies to achieve both promotional and prudential objectives. Policymakers in other jurisdictions - e.g., China - also implement incentive or coercive financial policies to achieve promotional objectives. Third, we identify two main institutional explanations for this European ‘promotional gap’: i) limited control of political authorities on financial dynamics; and ii) strong powers and independence of delegated authorities. This governance configuration leads to an institutional deadlock in which only measures fitting with both political and delegated authorities’ objectives can be implemented. Finally, we discuss the scenarios that might originate from the current institutional setting. We identify three possible evolutionary paths: i) a drift towards a green financial technocracy; ii) a re-politicization of delegated authorities; iii) a move towards fiscal-monetary coordination. |
| Keywords: | sustainable finance; climate change; low-carbon transition; central banks; financial supervisors; delegation; Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy; 853050 |
| JEL: | E44 E58 G28 G18 G14 |
| Date: | 2021–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111492&r= |
| By: | Duk Gyoo Kim |
| Abstract: | Ohio announced a Vax-a-Million Lottery in May 2021 to encourage people vaccinated. If people may avoid vaccination because (1) they worry about rare but critical side effects or (2) they want to free ride on herd immunity, the vaccination lottery may work better or worse than a lump-sum transfer to the contributors for herd immunity. I experimentally compare the effectiveness of the vaccination lottery over a lump-sum transfer. Overall, vaccination lottery works better, and it particularly incentivizes probability-weighting subjects. |
| Keywords: | vaccination incentives, lottery, Covid-19, laboratory experiments |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9225&r= |
| By: | Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Die Europäische Kommission (2021) und die OECD (2021) haben jüngst ihre Konjunkturprognosen vorgelegt. Unter anderem wurden für viele Länder Schätzungen der Produktionslücke sowie einiger fiskalischer Größen veröffentlicht, die eine Ableitung der erwarteten finanzpolitischen Ausrichtung erlauben. Von besonderem Interesse ist der strukturelle Primärsaldo, also der staatliche Finanzierungssaldo, der um Konjunktureffekte, Einmaleffekte und Änderungen in den Zinsausgaben bereinigt ist. In der Entwicklung dieser Kennzahl drücken sich somit im Wesentlichen Änderungen in den öffentlichen Einnahmen und Ausgaben aus, die auf diskretionären finanzpolitischen Entscheidungen beruhen und so die Ausrichtung der Finanzpolitik anzeigen: Steigt dieser Saldo, verbessert sich die strukturelle Situation der öffentlichen Haushalte; es wird also konsolidiert (restriktiver Fiskalimpuls). Sinkt der strukturelle Primärsaldo, so impliziert dies eine aktive finanzpolitische Unterstützung für die Konjunktur (expansiver Fiskalimpuls). Bleibt der strukturelle Primärsaldo konstant, ist die finanzpolitische Ausrichtung neutral (Abbildung 1). |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:202112&r= |
| By: | Vincent Dropsy (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française); Sylvain Petit (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française, CRISS - Centre de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences de la Société - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France, CRESEM - Centre de Recherche sur les Sociétés et Environnements en Méditerranées - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia) |
| Abstract: | La force de l'économie chinoise a été historiquement liée à son ouverture et à ses liens avec le reste du monde. Pendant quinze siècles, l'ancienne route de la soie a fourni un réseau de routes et de voies maritimes pour le commerce des marchandises et le transfert des connaissances avec l'Europe et le Moyen-Orient. L'initiative "Ceinture et Route" (Belt and Road Initiative) est une tentative de reconstruction d'une route de la soie moderne afin entre autres raisons, de réduire les coûts de transport des marchandises échangées. L'objectif de cette communication est de fournir un panorama du commerce international de la Chine et d'étudier la sensibilité des flux commerciaux bilatéraux entre les pays situés le long des corridors de la Ceinture et de la Route à la distance, aux masses économiques et démographiques, ainsi qu'à d'autres variables de proximité culturelle et politique. Pour se faire, nous utilisons un modèle gravité, afin d'analyser les flux commerciaux de la Chine par rapport à ceux prévus par le modèle, ce qui nous permet d'évaluer le bénéfice potentiel de ce projet. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03298832&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ & ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : The combined impact of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic on British foreign- and trade relations to Israel and its Arab neighbours constitute a particularly sensitive case. A destabilization of these countries could impact seriously stability and security, not just of the Middle-East region, but on the whole world. So far, the preliminary effects are ambivalent. Whereas Britons entertained reasoned hope for a ‘Corona miracle’ and a marvellous economic recovery in 2021, the prospects for Israel, the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt were less rosy. Presumably, Brexit is likely to harm the United Kingdom in the medium and long run. The post-Brexit impact on Israel and its Arab neighbours will be negative as well, but probably only be felt in the medium and long term also. However, the direct and indirect negative effects of the global COVID-19 crisis will by far outdo the Brexit impact. RÉSUMÉ : L'impact combiné du Brexit et de la pandémie de COVID-19 sur les relations étrangères et commerciales britanniques avec Israël et ses voisins arabes constitue un cas particulièrement sensible. Une déstabilisation de ces pays pourrait avoir de graves répercussions sur la stabilité et la sécurité, non seulement de la région du Moyen-Orient, mais du monde entier. Jusqu'à présent, les effets préliminaires sont ambivalents. Alors que les Britanniques nourrissaient un espoir raisonné d'un « miracle de Corona » et d'une merveilleuse reprise économique en 2021, les perspectives pour Israël, les territoires palestiniens occupés, le Liban, la Jordanie et l'Égypte étaient moins roses. Vraisemblablement, le Brexit est susceptible de nuire au Royaume-Uni à moyen et long terme. L'impact post-Brexit sur Israël et ses voisins arabes sera également négatif, mais ne se fera probablement sentir qu'à moyen et long terme également. Cependant, l'effet négatif direct et indirect de la crise mondiale du COVID-19 dépassera de loin l'impact du Brexit. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : Die gemeinsamen Auswirkungen des Brexits und der COVID-19-Pandemie auf die britischen Außen- und Handelsbeziehungen zu Israel und seinen arabischen Nachbarn sind ein besonders heikler Fall. Eine Destabilisierung dieser Länder könnte die Stabilität und Sicherheit nicht nur im Nahen Osten, sondern auf der ganzen Welt ernsthaft gefährden. Bisher erscheinen die vorläufigen Effekte ambivalent. Während die Briten begründete Hoffnungen auf ein „Corona-Wunder“ und eine erstaunliche wirtschaftliche Erholung im Jahr 2021 hegen, sind die Aussichten für Israel, die besetzten palästinensischen Gebiete, den Libanon, Jordanien und Ägypten weniger rosig. Vermutlich wird der Brexit dem Vereinigten Königreich mittel- und langfristig schaden. Die post-Brexit Auswirkungen auf Israel und seine arabischen Nachbarn werden ebenfalls negativ s, aber vermutlich ebenfalls nur mittel- und langfristig zu spüren sein. Die direkten und indirekten negativen Effekte der weltweiten COVID-19-Krise werden jedoch die Folgen des Brexits bei weitem übertreffen. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, pandémie de COVID-19, Corona, croissance économique, Israël, Palestine, Liban, Jordanie, Egypte, Royaume-Uni, commerce international, zone de libre-échange, union douanière, Anglosphère |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F22 F52 F63 F68 I14 N1 N40 O24 O5 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109101&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/178&r= |
| By: | Rohini Pande; Nils T. Enevoldsen |
| Abstract: | Early tests of cross-country convergence found evidence only for conditional convergence. In contrast, with more recent data, Kremer, Willis, and You (2021) find evidence that since the mid-1980s there has been a trend towards unconditional convergence culminating in absolute convergence since 2000. Additionally, they find suggestive evidence that one of the major drivers of this trend is an underlying convergence towards development-favored policies. We discuss the implications of this result through the lens of individual welfare and poverty, concluding that the news is not as welcome as it may seem for the world’s poor. We point out that absolute convergence has happened contemporaneously with rising within-country inequality, resulting in more of the world’s poor living in middle-income countries. Next, we argue that domestic redistribution is essential to spread the benefits from industrialization, since the labor share of manufacturing isn’t reaching the heights it did in industrialized countries. Finally, we argue that the democratic institutions that can facilitate this redistribution themselves face headwinds. Democratic backsliding, the Covid-19 pandemic, and a bleak climate outlook all present obstacles to transforming economic growth into economic justice for the poor. |
| JEL: | E02 O43 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29046&r= |
| By: | Siegel, Jessica; Dunkel, Kolja; Terstriep, Judith |
| Abstract: | Die aktuelle Diversifizierung von wissenschaftlicher Arbeit schlägt sich auch in der externen Wissenschaftskommunikation nieder. Soziale Medien bringen eine Vielzahl neuer Akteure, Zielgruppen und Kommunikationskanäle hervor. Soziale Medien sind Teil moderner Wissenschaftskommunikation. Sie erlauben Aktualität und Partizipation und erfordern neben der "Aktion" auch die "Reaktion" der Kommunizierenden. Als strategisches Instrument werden sie nicht ausreichend wahrgenommen. "Content" ist entscheidend: Die Wissenschaftskommunikation erfolgt personen-, themen- und projektgetrieben. Wissenschaftskommunikation kann nicht nur "nebenbei" erfolgen. Eine strategische Wissenschaftskommunikation braucht eine geeignete Infrastruktur und erfordert zeitliche sowie finanzielle Ressourcen. Die Verbindung von Wissenschaft und Praxis ist ein Leitbild der WHS und des IAT. Bei zunehmender Komplexität und disziplinärer Differenzierung der Wissenschaft kann die Kommunikation Brücken schlagen. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iatfor:062021&r= |
| By: | Mann, Laura; Iazzolino, Gianluca |
| Abstract: | While there is growing literature on the role of platforms in concentrating market power, this article centres on their role in ‘performing’ economic theory. As infrastructures that measure, monitor and ultimately compel human behaviour, the authors argue that digital platforms should be understood as ‘performative infrastructures’ that seek to incorporate informal populations by compelling behaviour in line with certain theoretical and commercial models. The article draws on secondary historical literature and primary research with Kenyan and international agritech developers, farmers, and representatives from international organizations, regulators and farmer organizations, to historicize contemporary ‘platformization’ within a longer history of infrastructural performativity in rural Kenya, in order to tease out both continuities and departures from the past. While contemporary technologists evoke similar justifications for top-down control over markets as did their analogue predecessors, they nonetheless seek to vest such power within the private sector and to use it to perform neoclassical theory. The authors argue that this particular orientation is not an intrinsic feature of the technology itself but is rather shaped by a longer history of shifting policy paradigms. |
| Keywords: | ES/P009603/1; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 J1 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110725&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Favara; Camelia Minoiu; Ander Perez |
| Abstract: | The unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy support in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore concerns that cheap credit could fuel the financing of zombie firms—that is, firms that are unable to generate enough profits to cover debt-servicing costs and that need to borrow to stay alive. Many observers have recently commented that zombie firms may crowd out lending to productive firms and erode the strength of the U.S. economy. |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-07-30-2&r= |
| By: | Daniel Levy (Bar-Ilan University); Avichai Snir; Haipeng (Allan) Chen |
| Abstract: | We use micro level retail price data from convenience stores to study the link between 0-ending price points and price rigidity during a period of a runaway inflation, when the annual inflation rate was in the range of 60%–430%. Surprisingly, we find that 0-ending prices are less likely to adjust, and when they do adjust, the average adjustments are larger. These findings suggest that price adjustment barriers associated with round prices are strong enough to cause a systematic delay in price adjustments even in a period of a runaway inflation, when 85 percent of the prices change every month. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biu:wpaper:2021-01&r= |
| By: | Häusler, Konstantin; Xia, Hongyu |
| Abstract: | Several cryptocurrency (CC) indices track the dynamics of the rising CC sector, and soon ETFs will be issued on them. We conduct a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the currently existing CC indices. As the CC sector is not yet consolidated, index issuers face the challenge of tracking the dynamics of a fast-growing sector that is under continuous transformation. We propose several criteria and various measures to compare the indices under review. Major differences between the indices lie in their weighting schemes, their coverage of CCs and the number of constituents, the level of transparency, and thus their accuracy in mapping the dynamics of the CC sector. Our analysis reveals that indices that adapt dynamically to this rising sector outperform their competitors. Interestingly, increasing the number of constituents does not automatically lead to a better fit of the CC sector. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency,Index,Market Dynamics,Bitcoin |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2021014&r= |
| By: | Jose J. Canals-Cerda; Brian Jonghwan Lee |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on auto loan origination activity during 2020. We focus on the dynamic impact of the crisis across lending channels, Equifax Risk Score (Risk Score) segments, and relevant geographic characteristics such as urbanization rate. We measure a significant drop in auto loan originations in March‒April followed by a near rebound in May‒June. Originations remain slightly depressed until October and fall again in November‒December. We document the largest drop and the smallest rebound in the subprime segment. We do not find any suggestive evidence that used car loan originations exhibited patterns significantly different from the rest of the market. We also document a more pronounced impact in the Northeast and the Pacific, seemingly influenced by the higher urbanization rate in these regions. Bank-financed originations experienced the largest drop and the smallest rebound, thus resulting in a loss of market share and continuing a 10-year trend of bank share loss in auto lending. We find that the drop in auto loans originated by banks was particularly significant among subprime borrowers. The impact of the COVID-19 crisis across origination channels contrasts with the experience during the Great Recession when banks contributed the largest support to the auto loan origination segment during periods of stress and finance company-originated auto loans were depressed. |
| Keywords: | auto loans; loan originations; COVID-19; consumer credit; bank and non-bank finance |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G23 L62 |
| Date: | 2021–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:92966&r= |
| By: | Thomas Geelen (Copenhagen Business School - Department of Finance; Danish Finance Institute); Erwan Morellec (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute); Natalia Rostova (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | Lending relationships matter for firm financing. In a model of debt dynamics, we study how lending relationships are formed and how they impact leverage and debt maturity choices. In the model, lending relationships evolve through repeated interactions between firms and debt investors. Stronger lending relationships lead firms to adopt higher leverage ratios, issue longer term debt, and raise funds from non-relationship lenders when relationship quality is sufficiently high. The maturity of debt contracts issued to non-relationship investors is higher than that of relationship investors. Negative shocks to relationship lenders drastically affect the financing choices of firms with intermediate relationship quality. |
| Keywords: | relationship lending, capital structure, debt maturity, default |
| JEL: | G20 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2146&r= |
| By: | Mir M. Ali; Chandler B. McClellan; Ryan Mutter; Daniel I. Rees |
| Abstract: | Recent studies have concluded that state laws legalizing medical marijuana can reduce deaths from opioid overdoses. Using data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a survey uniquely suited to assessing drug misuse, we examine the relationship between recreational marijuana laws (RMLs) and the use of opioids. Standard difference-in-differences (DD) regression estimates indicate that RMLs do not affect the likelihood of misusing prescription pain relievers such as OxyContin, Percocet, and Vicodin. Although DD regression estimates provide evidence that state laws legalizing recreational marijuana can reduce the frequency of misusing prescription pain relievers, event-study estimates are noisy and suggest that any effect on the frequency of misuse is likely transitory. |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29087&r= |
| By: | Cem Cakmakli (Department of Economics, Koç University); Selva Demiralp (Department of Economics, Koç University); Gokhan Sahin Gunes (BETAM, Bahcesehir University) |
| Abstract: | With the global rise in authoritarianism, there has been an increase in political commentaries by the populist leaders that have criticized their central banks in favor of lower interest rates. We analyze the effects of these political pressures on exchange rates. We provide strong empirical evidence where political commentaries affect both the level and the volatility of exchange rate returns. The intensity of political pressures as well as institutional strength play a key role in determining the size of the impact. |
| Keywords: | Political pressure, exchange rate, time inconsistency, populism. |
| JEL: | E5 G1 F31 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2112&r= |
| By: | Chrysoula Papalexatou |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the evolution of bank-state ties in Greece during the Economic Adjustment Programmes (EAPs). On one hand, the Greek institutional framework points to close "formal and informal ties" between political and banking elites, while at the same time the Troika's pressure to reduce the state 's political influence in the banking sector was expected to be high. Indeed, from the very early stages of the crisis, even though the recapitalisation was realised with public funds, the Greek government 's actual control of the banking sector was restricted, and "formal links" between the banks and the state were broken. Nonetheless, little was done before 2015 in order to evaluate and restructure the governing bodies of the Greek banks, keeping the "informal links" intact during the first two EAPs. In order to explain this surprising delay, this paper advances a new narrative. Based on 25 in-depth elite interviews with actors involved in the recapitalisations, it demonstrates that preserving these "informal" bank-state ties served as an important crisis management tool and proved useful for safeguarding financial stability at the domestic but also at the EU level. Lastly, evidence suggests that beyond the creation of the Banking Union, it was the international actors' lack of trust in the Greek government, which finally led to aggressive corporate governance reforms of Greek systemic banks breaking the "informal ties" between the bank and the state after the third recapitalisation. |
| Keywords: | Bank-state ties, Economic Adjustment Programmes, recapitalisation, financial stability |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:162&r= |
| By: | Richard Foltyn; Jonna Olsson |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how heterogeneity in life expectancy, objective (statistical) as well as subjective, affects savings behavior between healthy and unhealthy people. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we show that people in poor health not only have shorter actual lifespan, but are also more pessimistic about their remaining time of life. Using a standard overlapping-generations model, we show that differences in life expectancy can explain one third of the differences in accumulated wealth with an important part driven by pessimism among unhealthy people. |
| Keywords: | Life expectancy, preference heterogeneity, subjective beliefs, life cycle |
| JEL: | D15 E21 G41 I14 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2021_13&r= |
| By: | Orsetta Causa; Michael Abendschein; Maria Chiara Cavalleri |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on inter-regional migration, housing and the role of policies, drawing on a new comparative cross-country approach. The results show that OECD countries exhibit stark variation in both levels and trends in inter-regional migration, which is found to be highly responsive to local housing and economic conditions. In turn, a large number of policies in the area of housing, labour markets, social protection and product markets influence the responsiveness of inter-regional migration to local economic conditions. For instance, more flexible housing supply makes inter-regional migration more responsive to local economic conditions while higher regulatory barriers to business start-ups and entry in professions significantly reduce the responsiveness of inter-regional mobility to local economic conditions. The capacity of workers to move regions in response to local economic shocks is one key dimension of labour market dynamism which could, at the current juncture, contribute to the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. In this context, the paper proposes articulating structural with place-based policies to help prospective movers as well as stayers. |
| Keywords: | housing markets, Internal migration, labour markets, place-based policies, regional disparities, regional economic conditions, regional house prices, regional mobility, social protection, structural policies |
| JEL: | R23 R12 R50 R58 J61 H20 |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1679-en&r= |
| By: | Ram Mohan, M.P.; Gupta, Aditya |
| Abstract: | A bankrupt debtor’s ability to escape unprofitable contracts, enshrined in Section 365 of the American Bankruptcy Code, is considered central to a successful reorganisation within Chapter 11. The ambit of this power and the consequence of its application has been the subject of unceasing legal and business controversy. Intellectual property licenses assumed the forefront of this controversy in 1985 when the Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit held that Section 365 includes a unilateral power to rescind an Intellectual Property License. Congress reacted to the Court’s decision by amending Section 365 and legislating specific protections for Intellectual Property Licensees. This paper explores the American jurisprudence on the treatment of intellectual property licenses during bankruptcy and examines them within the insolvency regimes of the United Kingdom and India. The study reveals an important legal deficiency: neither jurisdiction incorporates any explicit protections for Intellectual Property Licenses during bankruptcy. Further, we find no substantive provisions that deal with the treatment of ongoing contracts during Corporate Insolvency Resolution Proceedings in India and Administration in the UK. For India, this raises an important issue relating to the desirability of a resolution professional’s ability to interfere with pre-petition IP licensing agreements. The authors underline the importance of such interference and suggest amendments to the Indian insolvency regime to deal with intellectual property licenses during bankruptcy. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14657&r= |
| By: | Kurani, Kenneth; Buch, Koral |
| Abstract: | While ownership and purchase of all vehicles approach gender parity, to date electric vehicles (EV) are being purchased by far more men than women. Prior analysis from California finds no reason in the available data why this difference persists. This report extends that analysis across 12 other U.S. states with varying, but generally less supportive than California, EV policy and market contexts. Data are from a survey conducted of new-car buying households at the end of 2014, which allowed participants to express their prospective interest in acquiring an EV. Participants then indicated why they were motivated to select an EV or what motivated them to not select one. Via multivariate modeling, differences in prospective interest in EVs between female and male respondents are examined, and overall, no difference rises to the level of the observed differences in real EV markets. Further, the multivariate modeling indicates no statistically significant effect of a sex indicator on prospective interest almost anywhere in these data; where there is a difference, female participants are estimated to be more likely to select an EV than their male counterparts. While participants from both sexes tend to give high scores to the same EV (de)motivations, differences in their rank orders repeat generalizations from other research. On average, female respondents score environmental motivations for selecting an EV higher than do male respondents. On average, male participants score interest in “new technology” as a motivation for selecting an EV higher than do female participants. Conversely, on average female respondents who do not select an EV score “unfamiliar technology” more highly than their male counterparts. Within the variation in EV policy and market contexts represented in this study, no finding here explains why similar prospective interest in EVs from five years ago has yet to be turned toward equal participation in EV markets. Explanations may lie in factors not modeled here. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicle, zero emission vehicle, gender, sex, policy, market |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9zz8n5x5&r= |
| By: | Filomena, Mattia; Picchio, Matteo |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a meta-analysis on the effects of retirement on health. We select academic papers published between 2000 and 2021 studying the impact of retirement on physical and mental health, self-assessed general health, healthcare utilization and mortality. Among 275 observations from 85 articles, 28% (13%) find positive (negative) effects of retirement on health outcomes. Almost 60% of the observations do not provide statistically significant findings. Using meta-regression analysis, we checked for the presence of publication bias after distinguishing among different journal subject areas and, once correcting for it, we find that the average effect of retirement on health outcomes is small and barely significant. We apply model averaging techniques to explore possible sources of heterogeneity and our results suggest that the different estimated effects can be explained by the differences in both health measurements and retirement schemes. |
| Keywords: | Retirement,health,meta-analysis,meta-regression,publication bias |
| JEL: | I10 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:897&r= |
| By: | Riddell, Chris; Riddell, William Craig |
| Abstract: | The Income Maintenance Experiments have received renewed attention due to growing international interest in a Basic Income. Proponents viewed a Negative Income Tax as a replacement for traditional welfare with stronger work incentives and reduced poverty. However, existing labor supply estimates for single parents are uniformly negative. We reassess the experimental evidence and find randomization failure in two NITs (Gary and Seattle). In Denver and Manitoba, we find a positive labor supply response for those on welfare prior to random assignment. Our results provide strong evidence that a NIT can increase work activity among single parents on welfare. |
| JEL: | C9 I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:36&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Côte d’Ivoire has shown strong resilience to the pandemic, owing to the authorities’ swift policy reaction and to a decade of sound macroeconomic policies, as well as the support of the international community including the IMF. |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/170&r= |
| By: | Peter Akioyamen (Western University); Yi Zhou Tang (Western University); Hussien Hussien (Western University) |
| Abstract: | Financial markets are of much interest to researchers due to their dynamic and stochastic nature. With their relations to world populations, global economies and asset valuations, understanding, identifying and forecasting trends and regimes are highly important. Attempts have been made to forecast market trends by employing machine learning methodologies, while statistical techniques have been the primary methods used in developing market regime switching models used for trading and hedging. In this paper we present a novel framework for the detection of regime switches within the US financial markets. Principal component analysis is applied for dimensionality reduction and the k-means algorithm is used as a clustering technique. Using a combination of cluster analysis and classification, we identify regimes in financial markets based on publicly available economic data. We display the efficacy of the framework by constructing and assessing the performance of two trading strategies based on detected regimes. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05801&r= |
| By: | Roberto Bonfatti; Giovanni Facchini; Alexander Tarasov; Gian Luca Tedeschi; Cecilia Testa |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role played by politics in shaping the Italian railway network, and its impact on long-run growth patterns. Examining a large state-planned railway expansion that took place during the second half of the 19th century in a recently unified country, we first study how both national and local political processes shaped the planned railway construction. Exploiting close elections, we show that a state-funded railway line is more likely to be planned for construction where the local representative is aligned with the government. Furthermore, the actual path followed by the railways was shaped by local pork-barreling, with towns supporting winning candidates more likely to see a railway crossing their territory. Finally, we explore the long-run effects of the network expansion on economic development. Employing population and economic censuses for the entire 20th century, we show that politics at a critical junction played a key role in explaning the long-run evolution of local economies. |
| Keywords: | Infractural Development, Political Economy |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2021-04&r= |
| By: | Manuel Serrano-Alarcón; Helena Hernández-Pizarro; Guillem López i Casasnovas; Catia Nicodemo |
| Abstract: | The healthcare systems of most European countries are currently operating under extreme levels of pressure. Part of this pressure is due to a rising demand for healthcare caused by an increase in comorbidities and life expectancies amongst the populations they serve. The implementation of a good system of Long-Term Care (LTC) could reduce this pressure if it promotes preventative habits and treatment adherence, or reduces age-related risks. In this study we aim to understand the role of LTC benefits in reducing healthcare use in primary and secondary care by exploring a detailed administrative database. Results show that a monthly LTC benefit of around 412 euros could reduce avoidable hospitalizations by 60% and also unscheduled "walk-in" patient visits by a half, with the majority relating to social exclusion cases. Furthermore, LTC benefits could promote preventive healthcare, improving access to healthcare services such as cataract surgery. These findings have important policy implications for the organization of the LTC and healthcare systems, suggesting that allocating resources to LTC might not only increase the welfare of LTC beneficiaries, but also help to contain the increasing costs of healthcare. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Vincent Montenero (CEFRES - Centre Français de Recherche en Sciences Sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - MEAE - Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères, CVUT - České Vysoké Učení Technické); Cristina Cazorzi (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Faced with an environment that is changing faster and faster, companies have long sought to encourage the almost automatic emergence of new approaches that can respond or even anticipate these changes. The development of creativity has become an essential theme. For more than 20 years, companies have been promoting the concept of agility at the same time as they attempted to extend creativity to all employees. Managers have been called upon to implement the corresponding actions. Our research, based on semi-structured interviews with 35 global managers, analyses several aspects of the implementation of the concepts. We looked particularly at what managers think of agility, how this concept relates to the efforts made to develop creativity, what they experienced, and the conditions for success. The analysis of the responses highlights the significant differences in perception, often linked to the functions performed in the company or to nationalities. Regardless of the value associated with agility, the interviewees agreed on the importance of the manager's role while directing it in three different directions. The discussions also identify a series of necessary, but not sufficient conditions for creativity to emerge. Implications for Central European audience: This paper does not deal with a problem specific to Central Europe. It is a general problem going beyond regional limits, as international management tends to use the same concepts everywhere. However, in its processing, we sought to interview several managers from this geographic area. In the second phase, we plan to improve the representativeness of managers from Central Europe to understand better what is specific to them. |
| Keywords: | Management,Agility,Creativity,Innovation,National collective identity |
| Date: | 2021–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03286310&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim D. Raheem (The EXCAS, Liege, Beligium); Kazeem B. Ajide (University of Lagos, Nigeria); Xuan V. Vo (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | The trilogy among economic growth, social capital (SC), and financial development is examined based on three hypotheses: first, SC is important in the finance-growth nexus. Second, there is a threshold effect of SC in the finance-growth nexus. Third, the SC-finance-growth trilogy depends on the countries' income level. Building dataset for 70 countries,someinteresting results were obtained: (i) the marginal effects of both SC and finance promotes economic growth at higher levels; (ii)there is evidence of a threshold effect of SC, as finance enhances more growth when SC is below the threshold level; (iii) higher-income countries tend not to benefit from the SC-finance-growth trilogy. These results suggest that the influence of SC on growth trajectory is exaggerated in the literature. The study recommends that policymakers should pursue other sources of economic growth aside SC, while ensuring that the level of SC does not deteriorate. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, Financial development, Social capital, and Threshold effect |
| JEL: | O43 G20 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/050&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Kyrgyz economy is highly dependent on remittances and foreign aid and does not have access to international capital markets. Inequality is relatively low, but poverty is widespread. The COVID crisis led to a sharp recession with output contracting by 8.6 percent in 2020, public debt rising by 16.5 percent of GDP to 68 percent, and the som depreciating by 19 percent against the US$. Under the assumption that the global pandemic begins to decisively recede this year, a rebound in growth is expected in 2021–22. However, significant uncertainty surrounds the baseline outlook and the recovery could be delayed if downside risks materialize. In the medium to long term, the main challenge is to create jobs for about 65,000 new jobseekers annually and to reduce labor out-migration. This will require deep structural reforms to transform the economy from a reliance on remittances to more diversified and private sector-led growth that is underpinned by higher investment and exports. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/174&r= |
| By: | Bertrand Achou; David Boisclair; Raquel Fonseca; Franca Glenzer; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | La pandémie de COVID-19 a été déclarée en mars 2020 par l’OMS, le chômage atteignant des niveaux historiques en avril 2020. Cette étude brosse un premier portrait de l’impact qu’a engendré la pandémie sur les finances des ménages du Québec, l'une des provinces les plus durement touchées en termes de nombre de cas et de chômage. L'étude permet également de comprendre comment les programmes gouvernementaux de prestations d'urgence ont pu aider les ménages à s’en sortir au début de la pandémie. Enfin, nous nous appuyons sur les données relatives aux attentes des répondants récoltées dans le cadre de l’enquête pour brosser un tableau de ce à quoi les ménages s’attendent pour le reste de 2020. |
| Keywords: | , COVID-19,Finances des ménages,Soutien du revenu |
| Date: | 2020–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2020rp-15&r= |
| By: | Upasana Ghosh |
| Abstract: | With the advancement of technology, data protection and data privacy have become a major concern. People are mostly occupied by the internet, computer and mobile phones nowadays. From buying medicines, cosmetics, grocery items, food, clothes etc, or finding a groom or bride, or managing finances, people are dependent on online apps or websites, which often lead to breach of private data if not used cautiously. Data protection is now under threat by the interference of strangers. Thus, in this study, an attempt has been made to explore the viewpoint of the netizens on online financial transactions and whether the existing cyber laws in India are giving sufficient protection to the right of privacy and confidentiality of the netizens. Key Words: : technology, internet, cyber security, financial frauds, law, netizens |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-38-09&r= |
| By: | Marta Ballatore (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019)); Lise Arena (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019)); Amel Attour (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019)) |
| Abstract: | This research focuses on the role of blockchain technology as a vector of inter-organizational trust in a reconfiguring ecosystem phase. Using qualitative analysis of data mainly from semistructured interviews, this study focuses primarily on the deployment of this emerging technology within a connected automotive ecosystem. Based on the notion of "trust-mediator technology", we show how blockchain technology is perceived as an institutional technology offering a new form of governance for all transactions and exchanges between the ecosystem actors. Although the functionalities offer automation to reduce the use of trusted third parties, preliminary results still show a strong commitment to current governance systems, such as regulatory and contractual frameworks. Ecosystem actors consider that complementarity between traditional institutional structures and decentralised blockchain is paramount for the success of any cooperation and collaboration on data on a connected vehicle. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain,trust,institutional technology,connected vehicle,ecosystem renewal |
| Date: | 2021–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03289866&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Colmer; Dajun Lin; Siying Liu; Jay Shimshack |
| Abstract: | Conventional wisdom suggests that marginal damages from particulate matter pollution are high in less-developed countries because they are highly polluted. Using administrative data on the universe of births and deaths, we explore birthweight and mortality effects of gestational particulate matter exposure in high-pollution yet high-income Hong Kong. The marginal effects of particulates on birthweight are large but we fail to detect an effect on neonatal mortality. We interpret our stark mortality results in a comparative analysis of pollution-mortality relationships across studies. We provide early evidence that marginal mortality damages from pollution are high in less-developed countries because they are less developed, not because they are more polluted. |
| JEL: | Q53 I15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9206&r= |
| By: | Bachir El Murr (Université Libanaise); Genane Youness (CEDRIC - Centre d'études et de recherche en informatique et communications - ENSIIE - Ecole Nationale Supérieure d'Informatique pour l'Industrie et l'Entreprise - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); Hala Gharib; Mayssaa Daher |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on the role the financial literacy features may play amid other determinant factors of individual success. A survey is conducted on a random sample of households' members, based on the individual perception as an assessment criteria of financial literacy status and career success. A non-parametric method, ctree, and a semi-parametric method, the multivariate logistic regression with interaction using random forest, are used. The two models are built to perform supervised learning classifications. They are validated through 10-fold cross validation technique to assure their capability to predict key factors of individual success, among which financial literacy features. It shows that personal and socioeconomic factors do not have any noticeable impact on professional success. Current educational system seems offering light insight on the professional perspectives of individuals. Financial literacy factors |
| Keywords: | financial literacy,individual success,ctree,multivariate logistic regression,Random Forest |
| Date: | 2021–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03295623&r= |
| By: | Anya V. Kleymenova; Rimmy E. Tomy |
| Abstract: | This paper finds that the disclosure of supervisory actions is associated with changes in regulators' enforcement behavior. Using a novel sample of enforcement decisions and orders (EDOs) and the setting of the 1989 Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act (FIRREA), which required the public disclosure of EDOs, we find that U.S. bank regulators issue more EDOs, intervene sooner, and rely more on publicly observable signals after the disclosure regime change. The content of EDOs also changes, with documents becoming more complex and boilerplate. Our results are stronger in counties with higher news circulation, indicating that disclosure plays an incremental role in regulators' changing behavior. We evaluate the main potentially confounding changes around FIRREA, including the S\\&L crisis and competition from thrifts, and find robust results. We also study changes in bank outcomes following the regime change and find that uninsured deposits decline at EDO banks, especially for banks with EDOs covered in the news. Finally, we observe that bank failure accelerates despite improvements in capital ratios and asset quality. |
| Keywords: | Disclosure; Enforcement actions; Regulatory incentives; Banking |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-49&r= |
| By: | Fayçal Sawadogo (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the price elasticity of mobile voice communication in developed and developing countries using quarterly operator data from 2000 to 2017. Using a dynamic panel model through system-GMM, the study finds that the demand price elasticity is higher for operators in developed countries. Controlling for cross-price elasticity with internet data prices reveals that voice communication is a substitute for internet data usage in developed countries. Another important finding is that, for operators in developing countries, the price elasticity decreases with market development level, whereas it increases for those in developed countries. Demand for mobile voice communication is thus more sensitive to price changes in the less penetrated markets in developing countries and the mature markets in developed countries. Furthermore, over time, price elasticity has decreased across operators in developing countries, highlighting the need for updating regulatory frameworks for the telecommunications sector to reflect the sector's various developments. In addition, when formulating regulatory policies, some important economic factors, such as income level and domestic market characteristics, should be considered to avoid losses in consumer welfare. The high estimated price elasticities suggest that operators do not have an obvious interest in engaging in collusive behavior that would hinder competition. Moreover, since there is no differential effect due to operators' positions or market shares, asymmetric regulation of the dominant operators should be avoided. |
| Keywords: | Econometric demand model,Dynamic panel analysis,Telecommunications services,Comparative analysis |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03293392&r= |
| By: | Sebastian Edwards; Luis Cabezas |
| Abstract: | We use detailed data for Iceland to examine two often-neglected aspects of the “exchange rate pass-through” problem. First, we investigate whether the pass-through coefficient varies with the degree of “international tradability” of goods. Second, we analyze if the pass-through coefficient depends on the monetary policy framework. We consider 12 disaggregated price indexes in Iceland for 2003-2019, a period that includes Iceland’s banking and currency crisis of 2008. We find that the pass-through declined around the time Iceland reformed its “flexible inflation targeting,” and that the coefficients are significantly higher for tradable than for nontradable goods. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F3 F41 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp85&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The pandemic interrupted a prolonged growth spell that made the Dominican Republic one of the most dynamic economies in the region amid strong growth, macroeconomic stability and improved social outcomes. This built resilience to the shock—including by maintaining access to markets—and allowed a decisive policy response to address the health emergency, support growth, and protect the vulnerable. |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/169&r= |
| By: | Joao, Igor Custodio; Lucas, André; Schaumburg, Julia; Schwaab, Bernd |
| Abstract: | We propose a dynamic clustering model for uncovering latent time-varying group structures in multivariate panel data. The model is dynamic in three ways. First, the cluster location and scale matrices are time-varying to track gradual changes in cluster characteristics over time. Second, all units can transition between clusters based on a Hidden Markov model (HMM). Finally, the HMM’s transition matrix can depend on lagged time-varying cluster distances as well as economic covariates. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the units can be classified reliably in a variety of challenging settings. Incorporating dynamics in the cluster composition proves empirically important in an a study of 299 European banks between 2008Q1 and 2018Q2. We find that approximately 3% of banks transition per quarter on average. Transition probabilities are in part explained by differences in bank profitability, suggesting that low interest rates can lead to long-lasting changes in financial industry structure. JEL Classification: G21, C33 |
| Keywords: | bank business models, dynamic clustering, Hidden Markov Model, panel data, score-driven dynamics |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212577&r= |
| By: | Hernan Bejarano (Center of Economics Research and Teaching, Economics Division (CIDE), Mexico.); Joris Gillet (Middlesex University, Business School.); Ismael Rodriguez-Lara (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.) |
| Abstract: | We experimentally investigate the effect of a negative endowment shock that can cause inequality in a trust game. Our goal is to assess whether different causes of inequality have different effects on trust and trustworthiness. In our trust game, we vary whether there is inequality (in favor of the second mover) or not and whether the inequality results from a random negative shock (i.e., the outcome of a die roll) or exists from the outset. Our findings suggest that inequality causes firstmovers to send more of their endowment and second-movers to return more. However, we do not find support for the hypothesis that the cause of the inequality matters. Behavior after the occurrence of a random shock is not significantly different from the behavior in treatments where the inequality exists from the outset. Our results highlight the need to be cautious when interpreting the effects on trust and trustworthiness of negative random shocks in the field (such as natural disasters). Our results suggest that these effects are primarily driven by the inequality caused by the shock and not by any of the additional characteristics of the shock, like saliency or uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Trust game, endowment heterogeneity, random shocks, inequality aversion, experimental economics. |
| JEL: | C91 D02 D03 D69 |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gra:wpaper:21/06&r= |
| By: | Delzeit, Ruth; Heimann, Tobias; Schünemann, Franziska; Söder, Mareike |
| Abstract: | The replacement of fossil resources with renewable biomass in a bioeconomy is seen as a major contribution to climate change mitigation. This transformation will affect all members of society, making it crucial to consider the views of different stakeholders to ensure a socially acceptable transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy. To explore potential outcomes of bioeconomy strategies assuming different future pathways, a scenario analysis is a tool to inform decision-makers about policy impacts and trade-offs. The inter- and transdisciplinary research project 'BioNex - The future of the biomass nexus' is the first project to develop bioeconomy scenarios together with stakeholders from politics, industry, and civil society in an iterative co-design process. As a result, three storylines describing diverging potential global futures are developed and quantified: Towards sustainability, business as usual, and towards resource depletion. The futures are driven by different assumptions on climate policy, cropland expansion, productivity growth in agriculture, prices of fossil energy, and consumption behaviour. Additionally, in the co-design process, three bioeconomy policies are developed: policy as usual, stronger development of the bioeconomy, and no policies. Besides presenting the results of the stakeholder workshops, this paper evaluates the strengths and shortcomings of a stakeholder approach in terms of policy-oriented research. According to the experience made within this study, it provides valuable insights for researchers and funding authorities they can use to optimise the employment of stakeholder-based research approaches. |
| Keywords: | Co-design,scenario analysis,bioeconomy,modelling framework |
| JEL: | Q16 C83 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2188&r= |
| By: | Lavy, Victor (Hebrew University, Jerusalem); Schlosser, Analia (Tel Aviv University); Shany, Adi (Tel Aviv University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of immigration from a developing country to a developed country during pregnancy on offspring's outcomes. We focus on intermediate and long-term outcomes, using quasi-experimental variation created by the immigration of Ethiopian Jews to Israel in May 1991. Individuals conceived before immigration experienced dramatic changes in their environmental conditions at different stages of prenatal development depending on their gestational age at migration. We find that females whose mothers immigrated at an earlier gestational age have lower grade repetition and dropout rates in high school. They also show better cognitive performance during primary and middle school and in the high school matriculation study program. As adults, they have higher post-secondary schooling, employment rates, and earnings than those whose mothers migrated at a later stage of pregnancy. |
| Keywords: | prenatal, immigration, human capital |
| JEL: | I24 I25 I15 J15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14576&r= |
| By: | Benjamin Cabanes (IHEIE - Institut des Hautes Etudes pour l’Innovation et l’Entrepreneuriat (IHEIE) - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | Le brainstorming s'est imposé dans toutes les organisations comme la méthode par excellence pour générer de nouvelles idées créatives et innovantes. Pourtant, il serait bien moins efficace qu'il n'y paraît. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03254581&r= |
| By: | Fakhoury, Anthony (Lebanese American University); Fakih, Ali (Lebanese American University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new insights into the role of governments and businesses in responding to pandemics in the Arab region. It uses the COVID-19 World Bank Enterprise Survey Follow-up dataset to examine the degree of business endurance in Jordan and Morocco amid the pandemic. Relying on the probit regressions, the empirical findings suggest that businesses that assumed resilient strategies such as establishing an online presence and converting production are more likely to remain open, whereas firms that adopted remote working are less likely to survive. This is due to the unpreparedness of firms and the limited availability of technologies in Jordan and Morocco for teleworking. Further, firms that expected future government supports are more likely to report closure. Finally, our results do not provide evidence that government grants and measures and the level of online sales are statistically significant in our model. The model used also offers further testable hypotheses for future research to comprehend the significance of the response of businesses to unprecedented shocks. |
| Keywords: | business continuity, business response, government intervention, remote working, COVID-19, Jordan, Morocco |
| JEL: | H11 H12 O53 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14583&r= |
| By: | Raúl Gutiérrez-Meave; Juan Rosellón; Luis Sarmiento |
| Abstract: | The analysis of local environmental policies is essential when evaluating the consistency of national public policies vis-à-vis the compliance of global agreements to reduce climate change. This study explores one of these policies; the 2021 Mexican reform to change electric power dispatch from a marginal-cost-based to a command and control physical system prioritizing power generation from the state power company. The new law forces the dispatch of the state company power facilities before private power producers. We use the GENeSYS-MOD techno-economic model to determine the reform’s effect on the power system’s generation mix, cost structure, and anthropogenic emissions. For this, we optimize the model under three distinct scenarios; a business-as-usual scenario with no changes to the merit order, a model with the new physical order dispatch, and an additional case where in addition to the shift to the physical dispatch, we reduce the price of fuel oil below natural gas prices to simulate the current behavior of the power company. It is relevant to note that we optimize the energy system without any assumption regarding renewable targets or climate goals because of political uncertainty and the need of pinpoint the effect of the merit order change while avoiding possible variations in the state-space arising from other constraints. Our results show that by 2050, the new dispatch rule increases the market power of the state company to 99% of total generation and decreases the share of renewable technologies in the generation mix from 72% to 51%. Additionally, cumulative power sector emissions increase by 563 Megatons of CO2, which with the current cost of carbon in the European Emissions Trading System translates to around 36 billion Euros |
| Keywords: | Merit Order Rules; Power Sector; Energy Reform; Mexico; GENeSYS-MOD |
| JEL: | Q42 Q47 Q48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1955&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/171&r= |
| By: | Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School) |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/18&r= |
| By: | Juan Carlos Torres Palacio; josé Barros Padilla; Milagros Villasmil Molero; Cecilia Socorro González |
| Keywords: | Estímulos tributarios, Desarrollo productivo, Ciencia, Tecnología |
| Date: | 2020–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000563:019367&r= |
| By: | Sarah Auster; Nicola Pavoni |
| Abstract: | We study the delegation problem between a principal and an agent, who not only has better information about the performance of the available actions but also superior awareness of the set of actions that are actually feasible. We provide conditions under which the agent finds it optimal to leave the principal unaware of relevant options. By doing so, the agent increases the principal's cost of distorting the agent's choices and increases the principal's willingness to grant him higher information rents. We further show that the principal may use the option of renegotiation as a tool to implement actions that are not describable to her at the contracting stage. If the agent renegotiates, his proposal signals information about the payoff state. We demonstrate that limited awareness of actions improves communication in such games: the principal makes a coarser inference from the recommendations of the privately informed agent and accepts a larger number of his proposals. |
| Keywords: | Unawareness, optimal delegation, strategic disclosure |
| JEL: | D82 D83 D86 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_256v2&r= |
| By: | Feld, Lars P.; Fuest, Clemens; Haucap, Justus; Schweitzer, Heike; Wieland, Volker; Wigger, Berthold U. |
| Abstract: | The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently conducting a review of its monetary policy strategy. The last formal review took place in 2003. Now the focus is on the extent to which this strategy has contributed in recent years to fulfill the mandate set out in the Treaties of the European Union and whether certain elements need to be adjusted. Against this background, the Kronberger Kreis, the academic advisory board of the Stiftung Marktwirtschaft (Market Economy Foundation), examines whether the ECB's monetary policy strategy still holds promise for success, whether its mandate should be reinterpreted and how the use of specific instruments should be assessed. In its analysis, the Kronberger Kreis draws on the experience of the financial crisis, the euro debt crisis and the coronavirus crisis and argues that greater attention should be paid to the side effects and proportionality of monetary policy measures. The central banks of the Eurosystem are now the largest creditors of the member states. Fiscal dominance of monetary policy should be avoided. The ECB's hierarchical mandate prioritizing price stability should not be called into question. The envisaged numerical target for consumer price inflation of below, but close to, two percent remains reasonable. However, the ECB should also consider other measures of inflation in its decisions and their communication. In addition, the ECB should rely more strongly on quantitative benchmarks (interest rate rules, money supply growth). The transparency of monetary policy could be significantly increased, for example, by publishing surveys and forecasts of the ECB's Governing Council. In principle, all measures must take into account the need to strengthen the independence of the ECB and the stability of the monetary union. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:smwkro:67e&r= |
| By: | Elena Rusticelli; David Turner |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 related travel restrictions, including complete border closures, have been one of the first containment measures to be implemented by many countries and have been continuously adjusted according to the epidemiological situation in departure and destination countries. Despite some easing since mid-2020, the level of such restrictions remain high, especially in Europe and North America. The economic costs of restrictions on international travel are apparent in those sectors most directly impacted, as documented here. However, given their important interlinkages, a uniquely sectoral focus is likely to underestimate the broader macroeconomic costs, which are also assessed, albeit with less precision. The importance of these linkages is borne out by the fact that those OECD countries with the largest travel and tourism sectors -- such as Greece, Iceland, Portugal, Mexico and Spain -- are among those that have experienced the largest falls in GDP in 2020 . Indeed, the pre-crisis size of the travel and tourism sector is found to better explain cross-country differences in GDP growth in 2020, than exposure to any of the other sectors considered most vulnerable to COVID-19, or the average stringency of wider country lockdown measures during 2020. These estimates serve as a means to gauge the potential economic benefits of a rapid return to more normal travel arrangements facilitated by the implementation and agreements around testing and vaccination protocols. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, macroeconomic costs, Restrictions to international mobility |
| JEL: | F2 F5 J6 R4 Z3 |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1678-en&r= |
| By: | Cantó, Olga; Figari, Francesco; Fiorio, Carlo V.; Kuypers, Sarah; Marchal, Sarah; Romaguera-de-la-Cruz, Marina; Tasseva, Iva V.; Verbist, Gerlinde |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact on household incomes of the COVID-19 pandemic and governments’ policy responses in April 2020 in four large and severely hit EU countries: Belgium, Italy, Spain and the UK. We provide comparative evidence on the level of relative and absolute welfare resilience at the onset of the pandemic, by creating counterfactual scenarios using the European tax-benefit model EUROMOD combined with COVID-19-related household surveys and timely labor market data. We find that income poverty increased in all countries due to the pandemic while inequality remained broadly the same. Differences in the impact of policies across countries arose from four main sources: the asymmetric dimension of the shock by country, the different protection offered by each tax-benefit system, the diverse design of discretionary measures and differences in the household level circumstances and living arrangements of individuals at risk of income loss in each country. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; cross-country comparison; household incomes; income protection; tax-benefit microsimulation; coronavirus |
| JEL: | D31 H55 I32 |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111146&r= |
| By: | Rytis Kazakevicius; Aleksejus Kononovicius; Bronislovas Kaulakys; Vygintas Gontis |
| Abstract: | In the face of the upcoming 30th anniversary of econophysics, we review our contributions and other related works on the modeling of the long-range memory phenomenon in physical, economic, and other social complex systems. Our group has shown that the long-range memory phenomenon can be reproduced using various Markov processes, such as point processes, stochastic differential equations and agent-based models. Reproduced well enough to match other statistical properties of the financial markets, such as return and trading activity distributions and first-passage time distributions. Research has lead us to question whether the observed long-range memory is a result of actual long-range memory process or just a consequence of non-linearity of Markov processes. As our most recent result we discuss the long-range memory of the order flow data in the financial markets and other social systems from the perspective of the fractional L\`{e}vy stable motion. We test widely used long-range memory estimators on discrete fractional L\`{e}vy stable motion represented by the ARFIMA sample series. Our newly obtained results seem indicate that new estimators of self-similarity and long-range memory for analyzing systems with non-Gaussian distributions have to be developed. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02506&r= |
| By: | Lloyd, S.; Manuel, E.; Panchev, K. |
| Abstract: | We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of domestic GDP growth. Within a quantile regression setup, we propose a method to parsimoniously account for foreign vulnerabilities using bilateral-exposure weights when assessing downside macroeconomic risks. Using a panel dataset of advanced economies, we show that tighter foreign financial conditions and faster foreign credit-to-GDP growth are associated with a more severe left tail of domestic GDP growth, even when controlling for domestic indicators. The inclusion of foreign indicators significantly improves estimates of ‘GDP-at-Risk’, a summary measure of downside risks. In turn, this yields time-varying estimates of higher GDP growth moments that are interpretable and provide advanced warnings of crisis episodes. Decomposing historical estimates of GDP-at-Risk into domestic and foreign sources, we show that foreign shocks are a key driver of domestic macroeconomic tail risks. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, GDP-at-Risk, International spillovers, Local projections, Quantile regression, Tail risk |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F30 F41 F44 G01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2156&r= |
| By: | Marc Piopiunik |
| Abstract: | To investigate the effects of reducing the intensity of tracking, this study exploits reforms across German states which combined the two lower secondary school tracks, sometimes additionally offering the possibility to acquire a university entrance qualification. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that reducing the tracking intensity significantly improves students’ reading achievement. Lower-performing student groups – boys, students born abroad, and students from lower socio-economic status families – benefited in particular. In contrast, we find no effects on acquiring a middle school degree, attending the most academic track, or repeating a grade. |
| Keywords: | school tracking, student performance, NEPS |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9214&r= |
| By: | Gündüz, Yalin; Pelizzon, Loriana; Schneider, Michael; Subrahmanyam, Marti G. |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of transparency on liquidity in OTC markets. We do so by providing an analysis of liquidity in a corporate bond market without trade transparency (Germany), and comparing our findings to a market with full posttrade disclosure (the U.S.). We employ a unique regulatory dataset of transactions of German financial institutions from 2008 until 2014 to find that: First, overall trading activity is much lower in the German market than in the U.S. Second, similar to the U.S., the determinants of German corporate bond liquidity are in line with search theories of OTC markets. Third, surprisingly, frequently traded German bonds have transaction costs that are 39-61 bp lower than a matched sample of bonds in the U.S. Our results support the notion that, while market liquidity is generally higher in transparent markets, a subset of bonds could be more liquid in more opaque markets because of investors "crowding" their demand into a small number of more actively traded securities. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Bonds,WpHG,Liquidity,Transparency,OTC markets |
| JEL: | G15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:212021&r= |
| By: | Dawud Ansari; Mariza Montes de Oca Leon; Helen Schlüter |
| Abstract: | Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a foreign military intervention against the Houthi movement, which took over major parts of Yemen. The intervention, which manifests mainly in airstrikes, has attracted widespread controversy in media and politics as well as a large body of (qualitative) academic literature discussing its background and ways to escape it. Complementary to these efforts and connecting to the literature on oil and conflict, this study provides unique quantitative insights into what drives the extent of military interaction. We use a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse the interactions between Saudi airstrikes in Yemen, gains of the Houthi movement on Yemeni ground, their attacks on Saudi Arabian soil, and crude oil prices. Our approach builds on high-resolution data from the Yemen Data Project and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Our results show not only that the airstrike campaign has been factually impotent to repulse the Houthi movement but also that the movement’s expansion in Yemen has not driven Saudi airstrikes. These findings draw both suitability and justification of the intervention further into question. Moreover, although the data fail to show that oil price levels drive the developments, our model identifies oil price volatility as a determinant for the airstrikes. However, the intervention has, in turn, no significant effect on oil markets. Besides adding to the academic discourse on oil and conflict, our results have implications for energy and climate policy: a coordinated transition might not deteriorate regional security, while uncertainty and fluctuations can increase conflict potential. |
| Keywords: | Saudi Arabia; Yemen war; VAR model; oil prices; military conflict; regime legitimacy |
| JEL: | C32 F51 Q34 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1959&r= |
| By: | Shan Huang; Hannes Ullrich |
| Abstract: | Human antibiotic consumption is considered the main driver of antibiotic resistance. Reducing human antibiotic consumption without compromising health care quality poses one of the most important global health policy challenges. A crucial condition for designing effective policies is to identify who drives antibiotic treatment decisions, physicians or patient demand. We measure the causal effect of physician practice style on antibiotic intake and health outcomes exploiting variation in patient-physician relations due to physician exits in general practice in Denmark. We estimate that physician practice style accounts for 53 to 56 percent of between-clinic differences in all antibiotic consumption, and for 74 to 81 percent in the consumption of second-line antibiotic drugs. We find little evidence that low prescribing styles adversely affect health outcomes measured as preventable hospitalizations due to infections. Our findings suggest that policies to curb antibiotic resistance are most effective when aimed at improving physician decision-making, in particular when they target high prescribers. High prescribing practice styles are positively associated with physician age and negatively with staff size and the availability of diagnostic tools, suggesting that improvements in the quality of diagnostic information is an important path to improved decisions. |
| Keywords: | antibiotic prescribing, practice styles, general practitioners |
| JEL: | I11 J44 I12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9204&r= |
| By: | Philippe Bich (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julien Fixary (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We determine the topological structure of the graph of pairwise stable weighted networks. As an application, we obtain that for large classes of polynomial payoff functions, there exists generically an odd number of pairwise stable networks. This improves the results in Bich and Morhaim ([5]) or in Herings and Zhan ([14]), and can be applied to many existing models, as for example to the public good provision model of Bramoullé and Kranton ([8]), the information transmission model of Calvó-Armengol ([9]), the two-way flow model of Bala and Goyal ([2]), or Zenou-Ballester's key-player model ([3]). |
| Keywords: | Weighted Networks,Pairwise Stable Networks Correspondence,Generic oddness |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03287524&r= |
| By: | Admkew Haile Mengesha |
| Abstract: | In fiercely competing business world the successes or failures of the organizations depends on the employees competency to attract and retain customers. Competent employees are the key to deliver excellent quality services to attract and retain customers, the main objective of this study is to assess the effects of employees competencies on customer satisfaction in private organizations in eastern Ethiopia. Comprehensive sampling techniques used to select sample of employees and convenience sampling techniques were used for customers. Data for the study were collected through selfadministered questionnaires distributed to 400 customers and 200 Employees for 40 private organizations. The questionnaire for employees was structured around six employees competencies areas such as business understanding, result orientation, customer service, team work, interpersonal communication and personal effectiveness. The questionnaire for customers was designed to collect data supplementary to the data collected from employees and data related to competency of employees that might not be directly answered by them. The inter-correlations among the dimensions of employees competencies and customer satisfactions have demonstrated significantly positively correlated. Multiple regression analysis were carried out to test the relations between the dimensions of employee competencies and customer satisfaction The study shows that there is a significant positive relationship between employees competency and customer satisfaction. The research identifies basic competency deficiencies of Ethiopian employees in handling customers’ and has managerial implication of how to staff the work force with the skills, area of knowledge, attitudes and abilities that distinguish high performer to deliver quality service Key Words: Employees competency, Customers satisfaction , Private organizations |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-07&r= |
| By: | Bobeica, Elena; Ciccarelli, Matteo; Vansteenkiste, Isabel |
| Abstract: | The link between US labor cost and price inflation has weakened notably over the past three decades. In this paper we document this decline and analyse potential contributing factors. We consider four important trends that have shaped the US economy of late: (i) improved anchoring of inflation expectations; (ii) the changing constellation of shocks hitting the economy; (iii) increased trade integration and (iv) rising firm market power. We find that the improved anchoring of inflation expectations has played a particularly relevant role but also that the latter two trends offer promising avenues to understand the decline in pass-through from labor cost to price inflation. Our results also bring supportive evidence to the view taken by the FED in the context of its monetary policy strategy review that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an outbreak of inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E24, E31 |
| Keywords: | inflation, labor costs, pass-through, structural VAR, United States |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212583&r= |
| By: | Bauer, Michal (Charles University, Prague); Cahlíková, Jana (Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance); Chytilová, Julie (Charles University, Prague); Roland, Gerald (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides experimental evidence showing that members of a majority group systematically shift punishment on innocent members of an ethnic minority. We develop a new incentivized task, the Punishing the Scapegoat Game, to measure how injustice affecting a member of one's own group shapes punishment of an unrelated bystander ("a scapegoat"). We manipulate the ethnic identity of the scapegoats and study interactions between the majority group and the Roma minority in Slovakia. We find that when no harm is done, there is no evidence of discrimination against the ethnic minority. In contrast, when a member of one's own group is harmed, the punishment "passed" on innocent individuals more than doubles when they are from the minority, as compared to when they are from the dominant group. These results illuminate how individualized tensions can be transformed into a group conflict, dragging minorities into conflicts in a way that is completely unrelated to their behavior. |
| Keywords: | punishment, minority groups, inter-group conflict, discrimination, scapegoating, lab-in-field experiments |
| JEL: | C93 D74 D91 J15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14608&r= |
| By: | Wesley H. Holliday; Mikayla Kelley |
| Abstract: | There is an extensive literature in social choice theory studying the consequences of weakening the assumptions of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem. Much of this literature suggests that there is no escape from Arrow-style impossibility theorems unless one drastically violates the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA). In this paper, we present a more positive outlook. We propose a model of comparing candidates in elections, which we call the Advantage-Standard (AS) model. The requirement that a collective choice rule (CCR) be rationalizable by the AS model is in the spirit of but weaker than IIA; yet it is stronger than what is known in the literature as weak IIA (two profiles alike on x, y cannot have opposite strict social preferences on x and y). In addition to motivating violations of IIA, the AS model makes intelligible violations of another Arrovian assumption: the negative transitivity of the strict social preference relation P. While previous literature shows that only weakening IIA to weak IIA or only weakening negative transitivity of P to acyclicity still leads to impossibility theorems, we show that jointly weakening IIA to AS rationalizability and weakening negative transitivity of P leads to no such impossibility theorems. Indeed, we show that several appealing CCRs are AS rationalizable, including even transitive CCRs. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01134&r= |
| By: | putri, Aulia ananda |
| Abstract: | Artikel ini berisi tentang pasar modal yang berlandaskan syariah Islam, yang berkaitan tentang : Upaya untuk mendeskripskian secara analitis saham terbatas dan pasar modal secara syariah pespektif. Pasar modal yaitu salah satu alternatif sumber pendanaan bagi perusahaan sekaligus sebagai sarana investasi bagi pemodal. Implementasi dari hal tersebut adalah perusahaan dapat memperoleh pendanaan melalui penerbitan efek yang bersifat ekuitas atatu surat utang. Disamping itu pemodal juga dapat melakukan investasi di pasar modal dengan membeli bagian-bagian tersebut. Oleh karna itu,tulisan ini mencoba menguraiakan implementasinya di sektor keuangan di negara-negara Islam,ini menelusuri sejarah perkembangan saham dan pasar modal. |
| Date: | 2021–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ngkuv&r= |
| By: | Philipp Krueger (University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI); Swiss Finance Institute; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI); University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management); Zacharias Sautner (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)); Dragon Yongjun Tang (The University of Hong Kong - Faculty of Business and Economics); Rui Zhong (The University of Western Australia - UWA Business School) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of mandatory ESG disclosure around the world using a novel dataset. Mandatory ESG disclosure increases the availability and quality of ESG reporting, especially among firms with low ESG performance. Mandatory ESG reporting has in turn beneficial effects on firm’s information environment: analysts’ earnings forecasts become more accurate and less dispersed after ESG disclosure becomes mandatory. On the real side, negative ESG incidents become less likely, and stock price crash risk declines, after mandatory ESG disclosure is enacted. These findings suggest that mandatory ESG disclosure has beneficial informational and real effects. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability reports, ESG reporting, Nonfinancial information, ESG incidents |
| JEL: | G14 G15 G18 G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2144&r= |
| By: | Daniel Keniston; Bradley J. Larsen; Shengwu Li; J.J. Prescott; Bernardo S. Silveira; Chuan Yu |
| Abstract: | This paper uses detailed data on sequential offers from seven vastly different real-world bargaining settings to document a robust pattern: agents favor offers that split the difference between the two most recent offers on the table. Our settings include negotiations for used cars, insurance injury claims, a TV game show, auto rickshaw rides, housing, international trade tariffs, and online retail. We demonstrate that this pattern can arise in a perfect Bayesian equilibrium of an alternating-offer game with two-sided incomplete information, but this equilibrium is far from unique. We then provide a robust-inference argument to explain why agents may view the two most recent offers as corresponding to the potential surplus. Split-the-difference offers under this weaker, robust inference can then be viewed as fair. We present a number of other patterns in each data setting that point to split-the-difference offers as a strong social norm, whether in high-stakes or low-stakes negotiations. |
| JEL: | C7 C78 D9 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29111&r= |
| By: | Calvo, Angela Garcia |
| Abstract: | Generating sustainable growth and reaching advanced economy status depend on the ability of countries to host local, globally competitive firms in skill-, capital-, and knowledge-intensive industries. However, few countries succeed. This paper asks whether state activism is necessary to foster economic transformation at high levels of complexity in the globalisation era, and if so, what strategies are effective. Using evidence from Spain's and Korea's ICT industries since the 1980s, the paper argues that state-firm coordination remains necessary to reach the efficiency frontier in complex industries. However, coordination has shifted from hierarchical structures to nonhierarchical models in which states and firms develop mutually agreed-upon working rules to reach beneficial outcomes. Nonhierarchical coordination may involve adopting different institutional configurations, depending on the identities and capabilities of firms and national governments and on the nature of linkages with other nations. These linkages may lead to alternative pathways to upgrading and diverse productive specialisations. |
| Keywords: | business-government relationships; industrial upgrading; late development; Political economy; state activism; EU747943 |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103929&r= |
| By: | Han Lin Shang; Fearghal Kearney |
| Abstract: | This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal component analysis generally improves out-of-sample forecast accuracy. More specifically, the dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement. Our models lead to multiple instances of statistically significant improvements in forecast accuracy for daily EUR-USD, EUR-GBP, and EUR-JPY implied volatility surfaces across various maturities, when benchmarked against established methods. A stylised trading strategy is also employed to demonstrate the potential economic benefits of our proposed approach. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14026&r= |
| By: | Henning, Christian H. C. A.; Diaz, Daniel; Lendewig, Andrea; Petri, Svetlana |
| Abstract: | Even in countries with well functioning democracies, not all people with the right to vote in a presidential election decide to cast a vote. In order to study the importance of abstention in presidential elections in Africa and Latin America, data from Senegal and Honduras was analyzed. These countries have experienced a decline in the voter turnout over the past elections, which means that the party systems are somehow failing to engage voters in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to understand how people choose a certain party or candidate, as well as, how they decide to either vote or abstain. Moreover, we are looking to determine whether non-voters could motivate the governments to design and implement efficient policies. To achieve this, we estimated nested multinomial logit models including the alternative Abstention. Then, to evaluate government performance, we derived indicators for accountability and capture. Also, to determine the optimal policy positions for the governmental parties, First Order Condition (FOC) and Second Order Condition (SOC) were estimated for different issues. |
| Keywords: | probabilistic voter model,capture,accountability,agricultural policy,Africa,Latin America |
| JEL: | Q18 C31 C35 C38 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202013&r= |
| By: | Stefano Bosi (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay, Université Paris-Saclay); Cuong Le Van (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPAG Business School, TIMAS - Institute of Mathematics and Applied Science, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ngoc-Sang Pham (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie) |
| Abstract: | We show that both real indeterminacy and asset price bubble may appear in an infinite-horizon exchange economy with infinitely lived agents and an imperfect financial market. We clarify how the asset structure and heterogeneity (in terms of preferences and endowments) affect the existence and the dynamics of asset price bubbles as well as the equilibrium indeterminacy. Moreover, this paper bridges the literature on bubbles in models with infinitely lived agents and that in overlapping generations models (Tirole, 1985). |
| Keywords: | in- tertemporal equilibrium,borrowing constraint,real indeterminacy,asset price bubble |
| Date: | 2020–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02993656&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Hoang (Örebro University School of Business); Nguyen, Trong-Nghia (The University of Sydney Business School); Tran, Minh-Ngoc (The University of Sydney Business School) |
| Abstract: | Stock returns are considered as a convolution of two random processes that are the return innovation and the volatility innovation. The correlation of these two processes tends to be negative which is the so-called leverage effect. In this study, we propose a dynamic leverage stochastic volatility (DLSV) model where the correlation structure between the return innovation and the volatility innovation is assumed to follow a generalized autoregressive score (GAS) process. We founnd that the leverage effect is reinforced in the market downturn period and weakened in the market upturn period. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic leverage; GAS; stochastic volatility (SV) |
| JEL: | C11 C52 C58 |
| Date: | 2021–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2021_014&r= |
| By: | Busch, Ramona; Littke, Helge; Memmel, Christoph; Niederauer, Simon |
| Abstract: | Using data from a quantitative survey of German banks at three points in time (2015, 2017 and 2019), we analyze the impact of changes in the interest rate level on banks' net interest income and the countermeasures they take. A decline in the interest rate level has a more negative impact on net interest income, the longer the decline lasts and the lower the interest rate level is. This impact softens with increasing risk of changes in the present value of banking books. We do not find that banks generally increase their risks following a drop in income. However, poorly capitalized banks subsequently increase the credit risk of their bond portfolio. After a fall in operational income, banks increase their fee and commission income and reduce their costs. In addition, banks tend to extend their mortgage lending after a drop in their interest income. |
| Keywords: | Banks' net interest margin,Fee and commission income,Low interest rate environment,Risk-taking,Administrative costs |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:232021&r= |
| By: | Felbermayr, Gabriel; Gans, Steffen; Mahlkow, Hendrik; Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the vulnerability of international value chains in the face of global shocks. This has triggered a political discussion regarding a possible reshoring of vulnerable supply chains back home. The aim is to reduce dependencies on foreign suppliers and thus improve crisis resilience of the domestic economy. The debate is also rooted in the growing dependence on Asian suppliers and the colliding political and ideological systems between China and the West. Unilateral decoupling of the EU from China (a doubling of trade costs) would reduce real income in the EU on average by 0.8 percent. In terms of GDP in 2019, this equals a permanent loss in real income of 131.4 bn EUR. Should China retaliate, real income would fall by 1.0 percent (170.3 bn EUR). With its extremely interconnected economy, real income in Germany would even decline by 1.4 percent (48.4 bn EUR). China would also lose from such a trade war, with real income declining by 1.3 percent. Should the EU increase its trade barriers against all its non-European trading partners, real income in the Union would fall by 3.5 percent or 584.3 bn EUR in case of a unilateral increase and by 5.3 percent or 873.1 bn EUR in case the rest of the world responds by also raising trade barriers. |
| Keywords: | European Union,China,Germany,Trade,Global Value Chains,Europäische Union,Deutschland,Handel,Globale Wertschöpfungsketten |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:153&r= |
| By: | Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | The global economy remained on track in the first months of 2021, despite surging covid-19 infections and renewed containment measures in many countries. The impact of the pandemic was largely confined to the service sectors. Meanwhile, the pronounced upturn in industrial production and global trade continued until spring, but has started to falter as a result of supply bottlenecks and logistical problems. The tensions in the global economic fabric are reflected not least in sharp price increases for raw materials, intermediate goods and transportation services, which have already contributed to a noticeable rise in consumer prices. Continued highly expansionary monetary policy and considerable fiscal policy stimulus, notably in the United States, but also in the euro zone, are fuelling economic activity this year and next. We expect global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) to increase by 6.7 percent in 2021 and by 4.8 percent in 2022, which is still substantially above medium-term trend growth. In view of the high economic momentum and higher inflation risks, we expect the Federal Reserve to start tightening earlier than previously expected. This is associated with the risk of a significant deterioration in financing conditions going forward, particularly for some emerging economies |
| Keywords: | Americas,Asia,Business Cycle World,China,Emerging Markets & Developing Countries,Europe,USA |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:79&r= |
| By: | Mary A. Burke; Ali K. Ozdagli |
| Abstract: | Recent research offers mixed results concerning the relationship between inflation expectations and consumption, using qualitative measures of readiness to spend. We revisit this question using survey panel data of actual spending from the U.S. between 2009 and 2012 that also allows us to control for household heterogeneity. We find that durables spending increases with expected inflation only for selected types of households while nondurables spending does not respond to expected inflation. Moreover, spending decreases with expected unemployment. These results imply a limited stimulating effect of inflation expectations on aggregate consumption, which could be reversed if inflation and unemployment expectations move together. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations; survey data; durable and nondurable goods consumption |
| JEL: | D12 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:92968&r= |
| By: | Gavazza, Alessandro; Lanteri, Andrea |
| Abstract: | This article studies equilibrium dynamics in consumer durable goods markets after aggregate credit shocks. We introduce two novel features into a general-equilibrium model of durable consumption with heterogeneous households facing idiosyncratic income risk and borrowing constraints: (1) indivisible durable goods are vertically differentiated in their quality and (2) trade on secondary markets at market-clearing prices, with households endogenously choosing when to trade or scrap their durables. The model highlights a new transmission mechanism for macroeconomic shocks and successfully matches several empirical patterns that we document using data on U.S. car markets around the Great Recession. After a tightening of the borrowing limit, debt-constrained households postpone the decision to scrap and upgrade their low-quality cars, which depresses mid-quality car prices. In turn, this effect reduces wealthy households’ incentives to replace their mid-quality cars with high-quality ones, thereby decreasing new-car sales. We further use our framework to evaluate targeted fiscal stimulus policies such as the Car Allowance Rebate System in 2009 (“Cash for Clunkers”). |
| Keywords: | credit constraints; durable goods; 771004; SES 1756992 |
| JEL: | E21 E32 L62 |
| Date: | 2021–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107605&r= |
| By: | Luke Mosley; Idris Eckley; Alex Gibberd |
| Abstract: | Temporal disaggregation is a method commonly used in official statistics to enable high-frequency estimates of key economic indicators, such as GDP. Traditionally, such methods have relied on only a couple of high-frequency indicator series to produce estimates. However, the prevalence of large, and increasing, volumes of administrative and alternative data-sources motivates the need for such methods to be adapted for high-dimensional settings. In this article, we propose a novel sparse temporal-disaggregation procedure and contrast this with the classical Chow-Lin method. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed method through simulation study, highlighting various advantages realised. We also explore its application to disaggregation of UK gross domestic product data, demonstrating the method's ability to operate when the number of potential indicators is greater than the number of low-frequency observations. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05783&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Recent economic developments. Despite a sizeable policy response, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact Rwanda’s economy and social fabric, with output contracting by 3.4 percent in 2020. The vaccine rollout is expected to help counter the pandemic and support the economic recovery, but risks remain elevated. While progress was made in several reform areas, some envisaged reforms are being delayed. The authorities requested the extension of the program by one year to make progress on ongoing reforms and policies to support the economic recovery and meet their fiscal consolidation and debt objectives. Rwanda received debt relief under the third tranche of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT). |
| Date: | 2021–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/164&r= |
| By: | Fortuna Casoria (University of Lyon); Marianna Marino (SKEMA Business School); Pierpaolo Parrotta (IESEG School of Management); Davide Sala (University of Passau) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits quasi-natural experiments associated with three waves of reforms occurred in Italy in 1992, 2001 and 2004, to establish 8, 4, and 3 new provinces, respectively. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find evidence of a significant detrimental effect of (further) decentralization on innovation in Northern and Central Italian provinces. We argue that this finding can be rationalized with the costs imposed by the “mafia transplantation†phenomenon, as we find that the new provinces that were more exposed to “mafiosi in confino†reduced their innovation output extensively. We perform a number of robustness checks that corroborate our main findings. |
| Keywords: | local government, decentralization, innovation, mafia transplantation, difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | D72 H72 K42 L20 O31 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp17&r= |
| By: | Roberto Antonietti (University of Padova); Luca Cattani (University of Bologna); Francesca Gambarotto (University of Padova); Giulio Pedrini (Kore University of Enna) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between the use of Key Enabling Technologies (KETs) and the demand for occupations, tasks, and skills in the local labour market areas (LLMAs) of Emilia-Romagna, Italy. We merge three data sources, and we compute both the share of highly educated employees, or of employees accomplishing low- versus high-routine tasks, and three novel indicators measuring the complexity of occupations, tasks, and skills. Our panel estimates show that a larger share of KETs not only stimulates a higher demand for workers holding a tertiary education degree, or accomplishing less routinary tasks, but also a higher demand for a wider, and more exclusive, set of occupations, tasks, and skills. These results are also robust to unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality. |
| Keywords: | key enabling technology, complexity, occupation, tasks, skills |
| JEL: | J24 O33 R10 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp18&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Bonaccolto (emlyon business school); Massimiliano Caporin; Bertrand Maillet |
| Abstract: | In this article, we first generalize the Conditional Auto-Regressive Expected Shortfall (CARES) model by introducing the loss exceedances of all (other) listed companies in the Expected Shortfall related to each firm, thus proposing the CARES-X model (where the ‘X', as usual, stands for eXtended in the case of large-dimensional problems). Second, we construct a regularized network of US financial companies by introducing the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator in the estimation step. Third, we also propose a calibration approach for uncovering the relevant edges between the network nodes, finding that the estimated network structure dynamically evolves through different market risk regimes. We ultimately show that knowledge of the extreme risk network links provides useful information, since the intensity of these links has strong implications on portfolio risk. Indeed, it allows us to design effective risk management mitigation allocation strategies. |
| Keywords: | finance,Financial networks,Portfolio analysis,Systemic risk,Expectile regression |
| Date: | 2021–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03287947&r= |
| By: | Ben Jann |
| Abstract: | Entropy balancing is a popular reweighting technique that provides an alternative to approaches such as, for example, inverse probability weighting (IPW) based on a logit or probit model. Even if the balancing weights resulting from the procedure will be of primary interest in most applications, it is noteworthy that entropy balancing can be represented as a simple regression-like model. An advantage of treating entropy balancing as a parametric model is that it clarifies how the reweighting affects statistical inference. In this article I present a new Stata command called -ebalfit- that estimates such a model including the variance-covariance matrix of the estimated coefficients. The balancing weights are then obtained as model predictions. Variance estimation is based on influence functions, which can be stored for further use, for example, to obtain consistent standard errors for statistics computed from the reweighted data. |
| Keywords: | entropy balancing, reweighting, inverse probability weighting, IPW, influence function |
| JEL: | C01 C21 C87 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bss:wpaper:39&r= |
| By: | Rani Dubey; Sarita Soy |
| Abstract: | A sound mind in sound body” is well-known fact. A sound body is impossible without proper food and nutrition. Proper food and nutrition diet enhance “healthy mind in a healthy body”. Balanced food and nutritious food related to good health. The right kind of food plays important role in promoting good health of an individual. Healthy children have bright clear eyes smooth glossy hair, a clean and shining skin, well-developed muscles erect on well-formed sturdy bones. They also possess food stamina and physique are active mentally and physically have good endurance, vigour and vitality. They are very cheerful and good natured. Good food means good health. For the nutritional needs of the school going children is very important roles in education. Therefore, the present topic has made an honest attempt to the study the nutritional need. Key Words: Nutrition, Children, Development Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-01&r= |
| By: | Gustavo Pereira Serra (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the contribution of human capital accumulation to solving the First Harrod Problem, which relates to the di erence between demand-led and natural growth rates in the long run. To some extent, this paper also relates to the literature on labor-saving technical change represented as a costly process. Moreover, I show how a model that considers human capital accumulation can address overeducation and technical change. I argue that human capital formation and technological progress are complementary in economic growth: the former ensures the stability of the employment rate on the balanced growth path, whereas the latter determines its level. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Post-Keynesian Economics, First Harrod Problem, Harrodian Instability, Aggregate Productivity |
| JEL: | E11 E12 E24 O40 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2113&r= |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Joydeep; Chakraborty, Shankha; Yu, Xiumei |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a parsimonious, rational-choice model to study the effect of pre-existing inequalities on the transmission of COVID-19. Agents decide whether to "go out" (or self-quarantine) and, if so, whether to wear protection such as masks. Three elements distinguish the model from existing work. First, non-symptomatic agents do not know if they are infected. Second, some of these agents unknowingly transmit infections. Third, we permit two-sided prevention via the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions: the probability of a person catching the virus from another depends on protection choices made by each. We find that a mean-preserving increase in pre-existing income inequality unambiguously increases the equilibrium proportion of unprotected, socializing agents and may increase or decrease the proportion who self-quarantine. Strikingly, while higher pre-COVID inequality may or may not raise the overall risk of infection, it increases the risk of disease in social interactions. |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202103010800001110&r= |
| By: | Nathalie Fabbe-Costes (CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Yasmina Ziad (CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic has shed light on two important but complex SCM concepts: SC robustness and resilience. This paper explores whether SC robustness and resilience should be combined and how to improve both. The research is based on an in-depth single case study at Renault Group, a global car manufacturer. Forty-three key informants involved in managing the SC during the first wave of Covid-19 shared their experience. They confirmed the usefulness of making existing SCs more robust & resilient and suggested a set of resources and practices to do so. The discussion of the results opens new research avenues. |
| Keywords: | Supply chain robustness,Supply chain resilience,Qualitative case study |
| Date: | 2021–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03306223&r= |
| By: | Gianluigi Coppola (University of Salerno); Sergio Destefanis (University of Salerno); Giorgia Marinuzzi (IFEL); Walter Tortorella (IFEL) |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of various types of regional policies on the economies of the 20 Italian administrative regions for the 1994-2016 period. Differently from previous works, we assess the impact of various policy funds in four sectors (agriculture, industry, construction, services) through a multi-input multioutput transformation function, and we estimate the policies’ average partial effects through a control function approach incorporating the funds’ allocation rules. Our evidence implies that European Structural Funds had a significant impact on various sectoral components of regional GDP per capita, with the ERDF taking the strongest role. Furthermore, the effectiveness of European Structural Funds is weaker for services, and stronger for industry and (to a lesser extent) agriculture. Nationally funded regional policies do not have any aggregate impact but affect the sectoral composition of GDP. |
| Keywords: | European Structural Funds, control function approach, sectoral development, multi-output multiinput transformation functions |
| JEL: | C43 D24 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp19&r= |
| By: | Howell, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | The EU project is at an inflection point. Intra-EU alliances are altering following the UK's departure, the EU's financial markets remain segmented, and there is limited appetite for completing the Banking Union. The second stage of Brexit negotiations also collided with the Covid-19 pandemic, which has strained economies around the world. These issues amount to a ‘polycrisis’ for the EU, raising existential questions about its future. This article focuses on one strand of the debates generated within this polycrisis: future UK/EU policy cooperation with respect to financial governance. The article discusses the importance of the financial services sector to the UK and the EU, and examines potential institutional options for future cooperation. In particular, it advocates harnessing dexterous aspects evident within precedents, including existing EU/third country association agreements, to develop a functional arrangement for future financial governance cooperation, which could also lead to closer UK/EU cooperation than currently appears likely. |
| Keywords: | coronavirus; Covid-19; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2021–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109873&r= |
| By: | Nick James; Max Menzies |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces new methods to study behaviours among the 52 largest cryptocurrencies between 01-01-2019 and 30-06-2021. First, we explore evolutionary correlation behaviours and apply a recently proposed turning point algorithm to identify regimes in market correlation. Next, we inspect the relationship between collective dynamics and the cryptocurrency market size - revealing an inverse relationship between the size of the market and the strength of collective dynamics. We then explore the time-varying consistency of the relationships between cryptocurrencies' size and their returns and volatility. There, we demonstrate that there is greater consistency between size and volatility than size and returns. Finally, we study the spread of volatility behaviours across the market changing with time by examining the structure of Wasserstein distances between probability density functions of rolling volatility. We demonstrate a new phenomenon of increased uniformity in volatility during market crashes, which we term \emph{volatility dispersion}. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13926&r= |
| By: | Cosimo Munari (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Stefan Weber (Leibniz Universität Hannover - House of Insurance); Lutz Wilhelmy (Swiss Re) |
| Abstract: | Protection of creditors is a key objective of financial regulation. Where the protection needs are high, i.e., in banking and insurance, regulatory solvency requirements are an instrument to prevent that creditors incur losses on their claims. The current regulatory requirements based on Value at Risk and Average Value at Risk limit the probability of default of financial institutions, but fail to control the size of recovery on creditors' claims in the case of default. We resolve this failure by developing a novel risk measure, Recovery Value at Risk. Our conceptual approach can flexibly be extended and allows the construction of general recovery risk measures for various risk management purposes. By design, these risk measures control recovery on creditors' claims and integrate the protection needs of creditors into the incentive structure of the management. We provide detailed case studies and applications: We analyze how recovery risk measures react to the joint distributions of assets and liabilities on firms' balance sheets and compare the corresponding capital requirements with the current regulatory benchmarks based on Value at Risk and Average Value at Risk. We discuss how to calibrate recovery risk measures to historic regulatory standards. Finally, we show that recovery risk measures can be applied to performance-based management of business divisions of firms and that they allow for a tractable characterization of optimal tradeoffs between risk and return in the context of investment management. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2158&r= |
| By: | Banerjee, Ritwik; Bhattacharya, Joydeep; Majumdar, Priyama |
| Abstract: | We conduct a unique, Amazon MTurk-based global experiment to investigate the importance of an exponential growth prediction bias (EGPB) in understanding why the COVID-19 outbreak has exploded. The scientific basis for our inquiry is the well-established fact that disease spread, especially in the initial stages, follows an exponential function meaning few positive cases can explode into a widespread pandemic if the disease is sufficiently transmittable. We define prediction bias as the systematic error arising from faulty prediction of the number of cases x-weeks hence when presented with y-weeks of prior, actual data on the same. Our design permits us to identify the root of this under-prediction as an EGPB arising from the general tendency to underestimate the speed at which exponential processes unfold. Our data reveals that the “degree of convexity†reflected in the predicted path of the disease is significantly and substantially lower than the actual path. The bias is significantly higher for respondents from countries at a later stage relative to those at an early stage of disease progression. We find that individuals who exhibit EGPB are also more likely to reveal markedly reduced compliance with the WHO-recommended safety measures, find general violations of safety protocols less alarming, and show greater faith in their government’s actions. A simple behavioral nudge which shows prior data in terms of raw numbers, as opposed to a graph, causally reduces EGPB. Clear communication of risk via raw numbers could increase accuracy of risk perception, in turn facilitating compliance with suggested protective behaviors. |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202101010800001832&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | School systems around the world are making efforts to enhance and make education more efficient with information and communications technology (ICT). This has become especially urgent due to the current pandemic. Because of its rapidly evolving nature, ICT places unique demands on teachers, requiring a certain level of digital literacy and specialised pedagogical knowledge to integrate it into the classroom.Teacher training in ICT usage and instruction at the collective and official level is key to a successful transition from an old to a new educational system. But efforts and careful analysis will be needed to ensure that the training actually increases teacher preparedness and meets their educational demands. Without proper implementation, ICT use may not only be ineffective but have a negative impact on teaching and learning. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, information and communications technology, pandemic, schools, students, teachers, teaching |
| Date: | 2021–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaah:41-en&r= |
| By: | Hernán Vallejo |
| Abstract: | This article proves that at the level of an individual ceteris paribus, when the endowments of goods in general -and of time in particular-, are taken into account, a good has to comply with the Law of Demand if it is normal and its excess demand is positive, or if it is inferior and its excess demand is negative. This result holds even if either the substitution effect is zero; or the excess demand and=or the income effect are zero; but not otherwise. This article also outlines other conditions under which a good will not comply with the Law of Demand, by being Giffen or perfectly inelastic to its price. It is proved that the widespread idea that a Giffen good has to be an inferior good applies only to the cases where the excess demand of such good, is positive. It is also argued that accounting for Veblen goods may require considering other determinants of the demand function, beyond the ones considered in this article |
| Keywords: | Ordinary Goods, Giffen Goods, Veblen Goods, Normal Goods, Inferior Goods, Inelastic Goods |
| JEL: | D01 D11 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019423&r= |
| By: | Georgeta Stoica-Marcu (Ovidius University, Constanța, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The Law no 292/2011 of social assistance framework law recognizes the profession of social worker assistant has a protected field and clearly described in the article 47 paragraph 1 “The initial evaluation and the intervention plan are made by the social assistant worker†after continue to the article 121 paragraph 1 “in the field of social assistance activates social worker assistants, other professionals in social assistance, as well as staff with various professions, qualifications and skills, but in paragraph 2 from the same article†. The social assistance staff in accordance with the status of the profession and in accordance with the provisions of the Labor Code, as well as other legal provisions by case. According to the Deontological Code no 1/December 14, 2007 of the social worker assistant, profession and based on the provisions of the article 27 (a) from The Law no 466/2004 of the Status of the social worker assistants in Romania establishes the obligatory norms of deontology represents a set of norms, rules, prescriptions and dispositions conduct of the social worker assistant, as well as members of the National College of Social Worker Assistants in Romania. |
| Keywords: | deontology, social worker assistant, social worker |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01238&r= |
| By: | Francisco Arroyo Marioli; Fernando Letelier |
| Abstract: | Copper price is fundamental for the Chilean economy and, thus, for the Central Bank of Chile’s forecasts. The goal of this document is to provide a theoretical tool that allows not only to understand the determinants of the evolution of copper price, but also forecast it. We define isoelastic demand and supply functions with both temporary and permanent shocks. We also allow for inventory storage based on a non-arbitrage condition with respect to expected prices. We use a shooting algorithm to solve for equilibrium with rational expectations, with supply, demand, and inventory data as inputs. We also isolate the USD exchange rate component of copper prices. We find that in the short run, temporary shocks play a minor role, whereas the USD Broad index and expectations contribute significantly. Also, in the long run, permanent demand and supply shocks seem to explain the major dynamics. We also present suggestive evidence that imprecise information can explain short-run volatility in expectations. Likewise, the model and methodology used are applicable to any storable commodity, assuming that supply, demand, price and inventories data are always available. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:918&r= |
| By: | Henning, Christian H. C. A.; Diaz, Daniel; Petri, Svetlana |
| Abstract: | In democratic systems, elections are considered a mechanism to ensure that efficient policies seeking the wellbeing of the population are implemented by the government, although the reality often reflects the opposite. Governments usually act inefficiently due to problems of government performance such as capture and low accountability. In the African continent, the republic of Senegal is considered an example of a stable democracy. Electoral processes in the country have been considered relatively fair. However, the decline in the voter turnout over the past elections suggests that the party system is failing to engage voters. This study assesses influencing factors both in voting behavior in Senegal and in the decision to abstain. We estimated nested multinomial logit models including the alternative Abstention to determine the importance of the non-voters group in the policy making process. We found that even though people in general make their decision more non-policy oriented, abstainers, compared to those who cast a vote, tend to choose more retrospectively oriented and less policy and nonpolicy oriented. Furthermore, our findings show that this group of non-voters hold the government more accountable and have a higher political weight for the incumbent party. Thus, they could incentive the government to choose and implement more efficient policies. [...] |
| Keywords: | probabilistic voter model,capture,accountability,agricultural policy,Senegal,Africa |
| JEL: | Q18 C31 C35 C38 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202012&r= |
| By: | Atiqah Amanda Siregar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faizal Rahmanto Moeis (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Wildan Al Kautsar Anky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Providing access of decent work for all can push the attempt of poverty eradication. However, the decent works will not be attainable without the support of inclusive and equitable education, particularly for people with disability (PWD). To date, PWD still faces challenges in obtaining minimum education, decent work, and adequate supporting infrastructure. Thus, this study aims to analyze; (1) the probability of PWD in getting employment; (2) how much the earning handicap of PWD compare to PWOD group, and (3) how the pandemic of COVID-19 affects the PWD workers. Our study suggests that more experienced, educated, and trained labour force will improve the likelihood of working and having wages. PWD tend to have lower educational attainment and training participation compared to PWOD which provide barriers to achieve jobs that are more productive and end up earning lower wages. Moreover, the reduction of wages are highest among PWD with mobility-related disabilities. Yet, the discussion of factors affecting the low wage of PWD remain inconclusive. Further, in the time of COVID-19 pandemic, all participants of Kartu Prakerja Program from PWD group, who managed to finish the training, perceived that the program increased their skill. Despite of other remaining issues, this is encouraging as the value-added skills can be useful in the labour market, particularly for PWD. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 — kartu prakerja — labor market — people with disability — wage |
| JEL: | C34 J21 J24 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202163&r= |
| By: | Cl\'oves Gon\c{c}alves Rodrigues |
| Abstract: | Mastering semiconductor technology is essential to insert any country into the trends of the future, such as smart cities, internet of things, space exploration, etc. In this paper we present the growing annual revenue of the semiconductor industry in the last 20 years and comment on the importance of mastering semiconductor production technology and its implications for the development of a nation. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00867&r= |
| By: | Chang, Jinyuan; Kolaczyk, Eric D.; Yao, Qiwei |
| Abstract: | While it is common practice in applied network analysis to report various standard network summary statistics, these numbers are rarely accompanied by uncertainty quantification. Yet any error inherent in the measurements underlying the construction of the network, or in the network construction procedure itself, necessarily must propagate to any summary statistics reported. Here we study the problem of estimating the density of an arbitrary subgraph, given a noisy version of some underlying network as data. Under a simple model of network error, we show that consistent estimation of such densities is impossible when the rates of error are unknown and only a single network is observed. Accordingly, we develop method-of-moment estimators of network subgraph densities and error rates for the case where a minimal number of network replicates are available. These estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal as the number of vertices increases to infinity. We also provide confidence intervals for quantifying the uncertainty in these estimates based on the asymptotic normality. To construct the confidence intervals, a new and nonstandard bootstrap method is proposed to compute asymptotic variances, which is infeasible otherwise. We illustrate the proposed methods in the context of gene coexpression networks. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. |
| Keywords: | bootstrap; edge density; graph; method of moments; triangles; two-stars |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2020–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:104684&r= |
| By: | Jean de Dieu Mushimiyimana |
| Abstract: | Many countries are improving education system as an instrument that can lead them to speed development. This study was carried out to investigate the School management and effective use of smart classroom in teaching and learning process. The study used 39 participants from Gicumbi District in Rwanda. The results of study indicate that majority of respondents explained that leadership has great effect on the effective use of smart classroom, contributing in ICT development in country and rising country economy.. And teachers gave suggestion on how government help in improving use of smart classroom. Key Words: school management, smart classroom, teaching and learning process, Rwanda Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-02&r= |
| By: | Sumit Kumar Ram (Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich); Shyam Nandan (ETH Zürich); Didier Sornette (ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC); Swiss Finance Institute; Southern University of Science and Technology; Tokyo Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the hot hand effect in the game of cricket by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of hot hands across the players' careers. We show that the self-excitation patterns in performance clusters can be exploited for predicting future performances. This paper contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of hot hands in the sequence of successes in individual performances. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit the clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and the design of algorithms for predicting success. |
| Keywords: | Hot Hand Effect, Gambler's Fallacy |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2150&r= |
| By: | David Pérez-Castrillo; Chaoran Sun |
| Abstract: | We define the proportional ordinal Shapley (the POSh) solution, an ordinal concept for pure exchange economies in the spirit of the Shapley value. Our construction is inspired by Hart and Mas-Colell's (1989) characterization of the Shapley value with the aid of a potential function. The POSh exists and is unique and essentially single-valued for a fairly general class of economies. It satisfies individual rationality, anonymity, and properties similar to the null-player and null-player out properties in transferable utility games. Moreover, the POSh is immune to agents' manipulation of their initial endowments: It is not D-manipulable and does not suffer from the transfer paradox. Finally, we construct a bidding mechanism à la Pérez-Castrillo and Wettstein (2001) that implements the POSh in subgame perfect Nash equilibrium for economies where agents have homothetic preferences and positive endowments. |
| Keywords: | shapley value, exchange economy, ordinal solution, potential, Implementation |
| JEL: | D63 D50 C72 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1274&r= |
| By: | Vanessa Echeverri; Juan C. Duque; Daniel E. Restrepo |
| Abstract: | In this work, we explore the relationship between monetary poverty and production combining relatedness theory, graph theory, and regression analysis. We develop two measures at product level that capture short-run and long-run patterns of poverty, respectively. We use the network of related products (or product space) and both metrics to estimate the influence of the productive structure of a country in its current and future levels of poverty. We found that poverty is highly associated with poorly connected nodes in the PS, especially products based on natural resources. We perform a series of regressions with several controls (including human capital, institutions, income, and population) to show the robustness of our measures as predictors of poverty. Finally, by means of some illustrative examples, we show how our measures distinguishes between nuanced cases of countries with similar poverty and production and identify possibilities of improving their current poverty levels. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05488&r= |
| By: | Thanh Le (University of Wollongong); Cuong Le Van (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPAG Business School, TIMAS - Institute of Mathematics and Applied Science, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ngoc-Sang Pham (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie); Cagri Saglam (Universite Bilkent [Ankara] - Bilkent University [Ankara]) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use only Sperner's lemma to prove the existence of general equilibrium for a competitive economy with production or with uncertainty and financial assets. We show that the direct use of Sperner's lemma together with Carathéodory's convexity theorem and basic properties of topology such as partition of unit, finite covering of a compact set allow us to bypass the Kakutani fixed point theorem even in establishing the Gale-Nikaido-Debreu Lemma. We also provide a new proof of the Kakutani fixed point theorem based on Sperner's lemma. |
| Keywords: | Gale- Nikaido-Debreu Lemma,Fixed Point Theorem,Subdivision,Simplex,Sperner lemma |
| Date: | 2020–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02993655&r= |
| By: | Murat Guray Kirdar (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University); Ivan Lopez Cruz (Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University); Betul Turkum (Department of Economics, European Economic Institute) |
| Abstract: | Most studies examining the impact of migrants on crime rates in hosting populations are in the context of economic migrants in developed countries. However, we know much less about the crime impact of refugees in low- and middle-income countries—whose numbers are increasing worldwide. This study examines this issue in the context of the largest refugee group in any country—Syrian refugees in Turkey. Although these refugees are much poorer than the local population, have limited access to formal employment, and face partial mobility restrictions, we find that total crime per person (including natives and refugees) falls due to the arrival of the refugees. This finding also applies to several types of crime; the only exception is smuggling, which increases due to the population influx. We also show that the fall in crime does not result from tighter security; we find no evidence of a change in the number of armed forces (military and civil personnel) in the migrant-hosting regions. |
| Keywords: | refugees, refugees, crime, security, immigration-crime nexus, civil war. |
| JEL: | J15 K42 D74 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2113&r= |
| By: | Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio (Bank of England); Ferrero, Andrea (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Sectoral supply shocks can trigger shortages in aggregate demand when strong sectoral complementarities are at play. US data on sectoral output and prices offer support to this notion of ‘Keynesian supply shocks’ and their underlying transmission mechanism. Demand shocks derived from standard identification schemes using aggregate data can originate from sectoral supply shocks that spillover to other sectors via a Keynesian supply mechanism. This finding is a regular feature of the data and is independent of the effects of the 2020 pandemic. In a New Keynesian model with input-output network calibrated to three-digit US data, sectoral productivity shocks generate the same pattern for output growth and inflation as observed in the data. The degree of sectoral interconnection, both upstream and downstream, and price stickiness are key determinants of the strength of the mechanism. Sectoral shocks may account for a larger fraction of business-cycle fluctuations than previously thought. |
| Keywords: | Keynesian supply shocks; input-output matrix; granular fluctuations; approximate factor model |
| JEL: | C32 E23 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0934&r= |
| By: | Etienne Theising; Dominik Wied; Daniel Ziggel |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a method to find appropriate outside views for sales forecasts of analysts. The idea is to find reference classes, i.e. peer groups, for each analyzed company separately. Hence, additional companies are considered that share similarities to the firm of interest with respect to a specific predictor. The classes are regarded to be optimal if the forecasted sales distributions match the actual distributions as closely as possible. The forecast quality is measured by applying goodness-of-fit tests on the estimated probability integral transformations and by comparing the predicted quantiles. The method is applied on a data set consisting of 21,808 US firms over the time period 1950 - 2019, which is also descriptively analyzed. It appears that in particular the past operating margins are good predictors for the distribution of future sales. A case study with a comparison of our forecasts with actual analysts' estimates emphasizes the relevance of our approach in practice. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11133&r= |
| By: | Li Li; Yanfei Kang; Feng Li |
| Abstract: | In this work, we propose a novel framework for density forecast combination by constructing time-varying weights based on time series features, which is called Feature-based Bayesian Forecasting Model Averaging (FEBAMA). Our framework estimates weights in the forecast combination via Bayesian log predictive scores, in which the optimal forecasting combination is determined by time series features from historical information. In particular, we use an automatic Bayesian variable selection method to add weight to the importance of different features. To this end, our approach has better interpretability compared to other black-box forecasting combination schemes. We apply our framework to stock market data and M3 competition data. Based on our structure, a simple maximum-a-posteriori scheme outperforms benchmark methods, and Bayesian variable selection can further enhance the accuracy for both point and density forecasts. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02082&r= |
| By: | Antonio Palestrini; Domenico Delli Gatti; Mauro Gallegati; Bruce C. Greenwald |
| Abstract: | Agents forming adaptive expectations generally make systematic mistakes. This characterization has fostered the rejection of adaptive expectations in macroeconomics. Experimental evidence, however, shows that in complex environments human subjects frequently rely on adaptive heuristics – model-consistent expectations being simply too difficult or impossible to implement – but their forecasting performance is not as inadequate as assumed in the characterization above. In this paper we show that adaptive agents may not be as gullible as we used to think. In a model with adaptive expectations augmented with a Belief Correction term (which takes into account the drift of the macroeconomic variable of interest) the average forecasting error is frequently close to zero, hence (belief amended) adaptive expectations are close to unbiasedness. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous adaptive expectations, belief correction, agent based models |
| JEL: | C63 D83 D84 E71 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9205&r= |
| By: | Crivelli, Pramila; Pinchis-paulsen, Mona |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the World Trade Organization (WTO) Panel Report Russia – Measures Concerning Traffic in Transit of April 2019. It constitutes the first attempt to disentangle the legal and political aspects related to the invoked essential security interests from the economic considerations underlying the measures imposed on the transit through Russia of goods exported from Ukraine to the Republic of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. One the one hand, the panel’s interpretation of Article XXI of the GATT denies Members unilateral determination over security exceptions. It further enables a pathway for future WTO panels to review possible abuses of security exceptions – a growing concern due to the rising complexity of transnational economic relations. On the other hand, our economic analysis suggests a stricter assessment of Russia’s transit restrictions was necessary. In particular, it argues that the panel adopted a circular assessment when considering the plausibility of whether Russia implemented its measures for the protection of its essential security interests at a time of emergency in international relations. Ultimately, although the panel’s focus on finding a diplomatic and legal path forward failed economic scrutiny a legal assessment argues that the panel’s findings fit the legal design of Article XXI:b of the GATT. |
| Keywords: | WTO; dispute settlement; national security; transit; trade barriers; Russia; CUP deal |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111027&r= |
| By: | Marcel Lincényi (Alexander Dubček University of Trenčín); Martin Laczko (Alexander Dubček University of Trenčín) |
| Abstract: | The present research study explores the extent to which the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union may negatively affect the efforts to lead in particular young people to have a positive attitude towards this integration group, enhance a feeling of belonging to it or a certain sense of common European citizenship. The main aim of the paper was to identify those selected circumstances of Brexit and its campaigns that could evoke strong Eurosceptic sentiments and, on the contrary, look for ways to eliminate these negative tendencies. The authors discuss how a populist, emotionally focused and often misleading campaign has significantly contributed to the vote of Brexit in a referendum, which is a precedent that may under certain circumstances be repeated in other member countries. The paper also discusses the media dimension of the topic. Especially the question of spreading misinformation, hoaxes, conspiracy or propaganda in alternative media that can strengthen Euroscepticism in many EU countries, including the Slovak Republic. |
| Keywords: | Brexit,education,European Union,Euroscepticism,media |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03298798&r= |
| By: | Fermin Cuevas (ICMPE - Institut de Chimie et des Matériaux Paris-Est - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Junxian Zhang (ICMPE - Institut de Chimie et des Matériaux Paris-Est - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Michel Latroche (ICMPE - Institut de Chimie et des Matériaux Paris-Est - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03211547&r= |
| By: | Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Die Weltwirtschaft blieb trotz neuerlicher pandemiebedingter Beeinträchtigungen in den ersten Monaten des Jahres 2021 aufwärtsgerichtet. Die Auswirkungen der Pandemie waren dabei weitgehend auf die Dienstleistungsbereiche beschränkt, Industrieproduktion und Welthandel expandierten bis zum Frühjahr weiter kräftig. Ihr Aufschwung wurde zuletzt aber durch Angebotsengpässe und logistische Probleme gebremst. Die Anspannungen im weltwirtschaftlichen Gefüge zeigen sich nicht zuletzt in starken Preisanstiegen für Rohstoffe, Vorleistungsgüter und Transportleistungen, die bereits zu einem spürbaren Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise beigetragen haben. Eine weiterhin stark expansive Geldpolitik und erhebliche Impulse von der Finanzpolitik in den Vereinigten Staaten, aber auch im Euroraum befeuern im Prognosezeitraum die Konjunktur. Wir rechnen für 2021 mit einem Anstieg der Weltproduktion (gemessen auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten) um 6,7 Prozent, und auch im Jahr 2022 wird die weltwirtschaftliche Aktivität mit voraussichtlich 4,8 Prozent stärker steigen als im mittelfristigen Trend. Angesichts der hohen konjunkturellen Dynamik und höherer Inflationsrisiken rechnen wir damit, dass die Notenbank in den Vereinigten Staaten früher als bisher erwartet beginnen wird, die Geldpolitik zu straffen. Damit verbunden ist das Risiko, dass sich die Finanzierungsbedingungen an den internationalen Kapitalmärkten bereits im Prognosezeitraum deutlich verschlechtern. |
| Keywords: | Amerika,Asien,Konjunktur Welt,China,Schwellen-& Entwicklungsländer,Europa,USA |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:79&r= |
| By: | Sydow, Matthias; Schilte, Aurore; Covi, Giovanni; Deipenbrock, Marija; Del Vecchio, Leonardo; Fiedor, Paweł; Fukker, Gábor; Gehrend, Max; Gourdel, Régis; Grassi, Alberto; Hilberg, Björn; Kaijser, Michiel; Kaoudis, Georgios; Mingarelli, Luca; Montagna, Mattia; Piquard, Thibaut; Salakhova, Dilyara; Tente, Natalia |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how the combined endogenous reaction of banks and investment funds to an exogenous shock can amplify or dampen losses to the financial system compared to results from single-sector stress testing models. We build a new model of contagion propagation using a very large and granular data set for the euro area. Based on the economic shock caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, we model three sources of exogenous shocks: a default shock, a market shock and a redemption shock. Our contagion mechanism operates through a dual channel of liquidity and solvency risk. The joint modelling of banks and funds provides new insights for the assessment of financial stability risks. Our analysis reveals that adding the fund sector to our model for banks leads to additional losses through fire sales and a further depletion of banks’ capital ratios by around one percentage point. JEL Classification: D85, G01, G21, G23, L14 |
| Keywords: | fire sales, liquidity, overlapping portfolios, price impact, stress testing |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212581&r= |
| By: | Echeverría, Lucía (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Mobility gives individuals access to different daily activities, facilities, and places, but at the cost of imposing environmental burdens. The sustainable growth of society is linked to green mobility (e.g., public transport, walking, cycling) as a way to alleviate individual carbon footprints. This study explores the socio-demographic profile of individuals performing green travel (public and physical modes of transport) and identifies cross-country differences in green travelling behavior. We rely on information from the Multinational Time Use Study, MTUS. for Bulgaria, Canada, Spain, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, from 2000 to 2019. We estimate Ordinary Least Squares regressions modelling individual decisions regarding green mobility. Our results indicate that the socio-demographic and family profile of travelers is not homogenous across green modes of transport, with physical travel exhibiting a much more consistent profile, across countries, in comparison to the use of public transport. Results indicate a positive relationship between living in urban areas and the time proportion of green travel, but estimates by country differ in magnitude and depend on the mode. We also find that some countries are more prone to green travel, and that transport infrastructure is more related to the proportion of time travelled by physical transport than by public transport. Our findings help in understanding who is committed to green mobility, while revealing systematic differences across countries that are worth analyzing. |
| Keywords: | green mobility, public transport, walking/cycling, Multinational Time Use Study |
| JEL: | R40 J22 O57 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14577&r= |
| By: | Mortazi, Mohammad; Moradi, Ahmad; Khosravi, Mohsen |
| Abstract: | Voltage control and reactive power play an important role in the operation of the distribution network. Accordingly, conventional methods such as the installation of a capacitor in an optimum location with a proper capacity and optimal transformer tap setting which has an impressive effect on voltage control and reactive power are used. But the study on the simultaneous use of these two methods is limited and it seems necessary to be conducted. These days the presence of Distributed Generation (DG) resources has grown in distribution networks. The presence of distributed generation resources has a great influence on the voltage profile due to the radial structure of the distribution network and the low X/R ratio. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the optimal coordination of the use of switchable capacitors and the setting of transformer taps in the presence of distributed generation resources to improve the voltage profile and reduce losses. This paper examines the simultaneous use of capacitors and transformer taps in distribution networks to reduce the voltage deviation and distribution losses in the presence of distributed generation resources. In order to explain the objectives, six different operation scenarios have been defined and studied. The above study is implemented based on the IEEE, 13 and 34 bus standard networks and the results are presented. The presented results clearly indicate the necessity of coordinating the use of these tools in distribution networks. |
| Keywords: | Capacitor, Distributed Generation Resources, Loss Reduction, Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm, Transformer Tap Changer, Voltage Adjustment |
| JEL: | O14 O32 Q32 |
| Date: | 2020–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109052&r= |
| By: | Goundan, Anatole; Sall, Moussa; Henning, Christian H. C. A. |
| Abstract: | The adoption of certified seeds and chemical fertilizers is central for African agri- culture which is characterized by very low productivity. This paper analyzes the technology adoption of certified seeds and inorganic fertilizers for two central crops in Senegal: rice and groundnut. The joint adoption of these two technologies is modeled in the presence of production risk using a flexible bivariate probit model. A recent agricultural survey, representative country-wide, collected in 2017 is used for our application. Descriptive statistics confirm the low rate of agricultural technology adoption. In the rainfed system, the average inorganic fertilizer used is about 28 kg/ha. The analysis reveals that in rural Senegal de- cisions to adopt certified seeds and inorganic fertilizers are interrelated for both rice and groundnut systems. For the rice system, a heterogeneous dependency is revealed, while for groundnut technology adoptions, a homogeneous correlation is found. Production risk is found to have a significant impact on technology adoption. We also found that determinants of individual technologies and their joint adoption vary widely across crops. However, the main determinants of technology adoption in rainfed agriculture in Senegal include cooperative membership, access to extension services, access to credit, education, family size, and farm size. |
| Keywords: | Fertilizer use,certified seeds,joint technology adoption,rainfed agriculture,Senegal |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202005&r= |
| By: | Singh, Radhika; Joshi, Shail |
| Abstract: | The Bundelkhand region in India has been dealing with a severe water crisis for the last two decades. This water crisis has received a significant amount of attention from the central government, media and academics. However, although multiple policies and acts have been passed, and extensive resources distributed, there has not been much improvement on the ground. This thesis analyzes the reasons behind ineffective water governance and implementation at all levels of government, and concludes that over-centralization of planning, crisis-response rather than long-term planning, and a lack of pragmatic planning are key to understanding the current situation. More generally, the disjointed nature of water governance in India has made it difficult for the public sector to carry out cohesive planning approaches. We suggest reforms that can be adopted, and consider the possible consequences to water management and planning if Bundelkhand were to become a separate state. |
| Keywords: | Bundelkhand, drought, water resource governance, water scarcity, agriculture, India, groundwater |
| JEL: | O13 O21 Q1 Q15 Q18 Q25 Q28 Q54 Q58 R5 R58 |
| Date: | 2020–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109067&r= |
| By: | Michal Bauer; Jana Cahlikova; Julie Chytilova; Gerard Roland; Tomas Zelinsky |
| Abstract: | This paper provides experimental evidence showing that members of a majority group systematically shift punishment on innocent members of an ethnic minority. We develop a new incentivized task, the Punishing the Scapegoat Game, to measure how injustice affecting a member of one’s own group shapes punishment of an unrelated bystander (“a scapegoat”). We manipulate the ethnic identity of the scapegoats and study interactions between the majority group and the Roma minority in Slovakia. We find that when no harm is done, there is no evidence of discrimination against the ethnic minority. In contrast, when a member of one’s own group is harmed, the punishment ”passed” on innocent individuals more than doubles when they are from the minority, as compared to when they are from the dominant group. These results illuminate how individualized tensions can be transformed into a group conflict, dragging minorities into conflicts in a way that is completely unrelated to their behavior. |
| Keywords: | punishment; minority groups; inter-group conflict; discrimination; scapegoating; lab-in-field experiments; |
| JEL: | C93 D74 D91 J15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp697&r= |
| By: | Oana Tataru (Ovidius University of Constanta, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The assessment of a concept had constantly been a challenging phase in respect of the precise moment of appearance, all the more as the postulation – modernity- was considered controversial and complex along its entire history. An aspect that had to be mentioned was the fact according to which the idea of modernity could not be conceived but within the parameters of a particular awareness of the time, namely the historic, linear and irreversible one. Modernity would be purposeless if a society had not regarded the temporal-sequential concept of history as representative and organized temporal categories in accordance with a mythical and recurrent pattern. Although the notion of modernity was assimilated almost automatically to secularism, the main corresponding constitutive element had been the sense of unrepeatable time, not compatible with a religious Weltanschauung. The premodern societies highly considered the religious doctrines in contrast to actual realities the public opinion of which did not appear as the prerogative of an educated minority, but a constantly enhanced forum of social communication. |
| Keywords: | modernity, civilization, chronicle, society, individual, culture |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01249&r= |
| By: | Dilger, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Prozent-Hürden führen normalerweise dazu, dass Stimmen verfallen, was der Gleichheit der Wahl widerspricht und die Chancen kleinerer sowie neuer Parteien mindert. Es gibt mehrere mögliche Auswege, z. B. durch Präferenzwahl. Noch einfacher ist es, wenn jede Partei angibt, an welche andere Partei ihre Stimmen gehen sollen, falls sie selbst an der Prozent-Hürde scheitert. |
| JEL: | D72 K16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:72021&r= |
| By: | Meilin Ma; Jayson L. Lusk |
| Abstract: | Supply chains for many agricultural products have an hour-glass shape; in between a sizable number of farmers and consumers is a smaller number of processors. The concentrated nature of the meat processing sectors in the United States implies that disruption of the processing capacity of any one plant, from accident, weather, or as recently witnessed – worker illnesses from a pandemic – has the potential to lead to system-wide disruptions. We explore the extent to which a less concentrated meat processing sector would be less vulnerable to the risks of temporary plant shutdowns. We calibrate an economic model to match the actual horizontal structure of the U.S. beef packing sector and conduct counter-factual simulations. With Cournot competition among heterogeneous packing plants, the model determines how industry output and producer and consumer welfare vary with the odds of exogenous plant shutdowns under different horizontal structures. We find that increasing odds of shutdown results in a widening of the farm-to-retail price spread even as packer profits fall, regardless of the structure. Results indicate that the extent to which a more diffuse packing sector performs better in ensuring a given level of output, and thus food security, depends on the exogenous risk of shutdown and the level of output desired; no horizontal structure dominates. These results illustrate the consequences of policies and industry efforts aimed at increasing the resilience of the food supply chain and highlight that there are no easy solutions to improving the short-run resilience by changing the horizontal concentration of meat packing. |
| JEL: | L11 Q11 Q19 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29103&r= |
| By: | Gustavo Pereira Serra (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to analyze the sustainability of student debt in the US. For this purpose, I build a neo-Kaleckian model in which households can borrow to either consume or invest in human capital. Next, I calibrate the model using US data to simulate the economic effects of specific policies such as student loan forgiveness. To my knowledge, this is the first study that considers household borrowing for two di erent purposes, consumption and human capital accumulation, in a demand-led macro-modeling framework. The main findings are that i) household debt is sustainable in the long run (i.e., the debt servicing is compatible with the long-term economic growth) for a consumption level greater than 90% of household income; ii) new borrowing boosts short-term economic activity while having ambiguous long-term e ects because of its outcomes to household indebtedness and debt servicing; and iii) student loan cancellation has only short-run economic e ects, whereas reducing loan interest rates and changing the eligibility criterion for student loan forgiveness result in long-term effects. |
| Keywords: | Household debt, student loans, capacity utilization, human capital |
| JEL: | E12 E22 E24 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2112&r= |
| By: | William Torous; Florian Gunsilius; Philippe Rigollet |
| Abstract: | We propose a method based on optimal transport theory for causal inference in classical treatment and control study designs. Our approach sheds a new light on existing approaches and generalizes them to settings with high-dimensional data. The implementation of our method leverages recent advances in computational optimal transport to produce an estimate of high-dimensional counterfactual outcomes. The benefits of this extension are demonstrated both on synthetic and real data that are beyond the reach of existing methods. In particular, we revisit the classical Card & Krueger dataset on the effect of a minimum wage increase on employment in fast food restaurants and obtain new insights about the impact of raising the minimum wage on employment of full- and part-time workers in the fast food industry. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05858&r= |
| By: | Nguyen Thang Dao |
| Abstract: | We set up a model with intergenerational bequest transfers and climate damage on the wealth of heterogeneous households. We show that, under credit market imperfections and depending on wealth distribution across households, a balanced budget climate policy may widen the wealth inequality gap between the rich and poor. Climate policy may create positive effects on the wealth of households, but these effects are asymmetric across households in terms of both magnitude and the transmission of gains from a climate policy within households. The gains of the poor from a climate policy are mainly transmitted into improving living standards and the investment in human capital due to the higher marginal return to education investment. By contrast, the gains of the rich from a climate policy are transmitted biasedly into physical capital accumulation and thereby enhance their monopolistic position in the production of intermediate inputs. We show that, for any climate policy, there exists a corresponding threshold of aggregate physical capital. When the aggregate physical capital of the economy exceeds this threshold, the corresponding climate policy may widen the intergenerational bequest transfers among heterogeneous households, thereby contributing to widening the wealth inequality gap between the rich and poor in the long run. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1139&r= |
| By: | Jones, Stephen R. G.; Lange, Fabian; Riddell, William Craig; Warman, Casey |
| Abstract: | The Canadian labour market experienced a period of unprecedented turmoil following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the main changes using standard labour force statistics and new data on job postings. Envisaging a phase of temporary severing of employment relationships followed by a phase of more standard labour market search and matching, we use stock and flow data to understand key developments. We find dramatic changes in employment, unemployment and labour market attachment in 2020 and, looking forward to 2021, signs of an unusual recovery with co-existing strong labour demand and stubborn persistence in depressed employment rates. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,Coronavirus,Job loss,Unemployment,Employment,Transition rates |
| JEL: | E24 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:37&r= |
| By: | Sinha, Ankur; Das, Arka; Anand, Guneshwar; Jayaswal, Sachin |
| Abstract: | In this article, we discuss an exact algorithm for mixed integer concave minimization problems. A piece wise inner-approximation of the concave function is achieved using an auxiliary linear program that leads to a bilevel program, which provides a lower bound to the original problem. The bilevel program is reduced to a single-level formulation with the help of Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT) conditions. Incorporating the KKT conditions lead to complementary slackness conditions that are linearized using BigM. Multiple bilevel programs, When solved over iterations, guarantee convergence to the exact optimum of the original problem. Though the algorithm is general and can be applied to any optimization problem with concave function(s), in this paper, we solve two common classes of operations and supply chain problems; namely, the concave knapsack problem, and the concave production transportation problem. The computational experiments indicate that our proposed approach out performs the customized methods that have been used in the literature to solve the two classes of problems by an order of magnitude in most of the test cases. |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14658&r= |
| By: | Raffaele Anedda (UEA - Unité d'Économie Appliquée - ENSTA Paris - École Nationale Supérieure de Techniques Avancées) |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de l'article est de proposer des lectures structurales de deux indicateurs de la qualité technologique des brevets : l'originalité et la généralité. Nous les transformons pour ce faire en des objets mathématiquesdes « graphes »et nous insistons sur des amendements et prolongements inspirés par cette nouvelle approche. Dans une première lecture, nous partons des indices originels et nous leur appliquons directement une représentation sous la forme de graphes. Dans une deuxième lecture, nous partons de matrices de flux technologiques et nous reconstruisons les indices de dispersion tels qu'ils ont été conçus initialement. Nous allons même un peu plus loin : nous proposons d'autres indices de la qualité technologique à partir de ces matrices, dont un qui nous semble de portée supérieure pour apprécier cette qualité. ABSTRACT. The aim of this article is to propose the structural readings of two indicators of the technological quality of patents: originality and generality. To do so, we transform them into mathematical objects-graphs-and insist on amendments and extensions inspired by this new approach. In the first reading, we start from the original indices and we directly apply a representation in the form of graphs to them. In the second reading, we start from the technological flow matrices and reconstruct the dispersion indices as they were originally conceived. We go even further by proposing other indices of technological quality from these matrices, including one that seems to have a greater scope for assessing this quality. MOTS-CLÉS. Brevet, technologie, théorie des graphes. |
| Keywords: | patent,technology,graph theory |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03289528&r= |
| By: | Gianni De Nicolo (Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)); Nataliya Klimenko (University of Zurich); Sebastian Pfeil (Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE); Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM)); Jean-Charles Rochet (Swiss Finance Institute; University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI); University of Zurich - Swiss Banking Institute (ISB)) |
| Abstract: | We build a stylized dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions to analyze costs and benefits of capital requirements in the short-term and long-term. We show that since increasing capital requirements limits the aggregate loan supply, the equilibrium loan rate spread increases, which raises bank profitability and the market-to-book value of bank capital. Hence, banks build up larger capital buffers which (i) lowers the public losses in case of a systemic crisis and (ii) restores the banking sector’s lending capacity after the short-term credit crunch induced by tighter regulation. We confirm our model’s dynamic implications in a panel VAR estimation, which suggests that bank lending has even increased in the long-run after the implementation of Basel III capital regulation. |
| Keywords: | Bank capital requirements, credit crunch, systemic risk |
| JEL: | E21 E32 F44 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2152&r= |
| By: | Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in response to shocks. We apply our framework to the reallocation of US economic activity from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt from 1965-2015. We find slow convergence to steady-state, with US states closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period than at its beginning. We find substantial heterogeneity in the effects of local shocks, which depend on capital and labor dynamics, and the spatial and sectoral incidence of these shocks. |
| JEL: | F14 F15 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29101&r= |
| By: | Lorenzo Caliendo; Fernando Parro |
| Abstract: | We review recent theoretical and empirical research on trade policy. We start by presenting reduced-form evidence of the effects of trade policy in the presence of supply-chain linkages, on the short-run and persistent effects of trade policy across local labor markets, and on the effects of trade policy uncertainty on employment and firms. We describe the shift-share method for trade policy analysis, discuss the interpretation of the estimated effects, and provide a theoretical foundation. We then describe new quantitative frameworks, methods, and data used to study the aggregate and distributional effects of trade policy in general equilibrium. We discuss how to take into account supply-chain linkages, local labor markets, and different sources of dynamics. As an illustration, we quantify the aggregate and distributional effects of the 2018 trade war between the United States and its trading partners. Finally, we present recent theoretical insights on optimal unilateral trade policy with firm and product heterogeneity in the context of large and small open economies with perfectly and imperfectly competitive product markets. We also discuss how optimal trade policy is shaped by the presence of multiple sectors, intermediate goods, and supply-chain linkages. We close the chapter by discussing the scope of future research. |
| JEL: | F1 F10 F11 F12 F13 F14 F15 F16 F19 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29051&r= |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Christopher Rooney; François Steenkamp (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a synthesis of four country case studies on Ghana, Kenya, Senegal and South Africa. These studies examine structural change through the lens of economic complexity, and provide policy options through which these countries can achieve structural change that expands the economic opportunities for disenfranchised women and youth.3 The common objectives across these four studies is as follows: First, to examine the degree and extent of economic complexity of the country in question. Second, to undertake a detailed product space analysis. Third, use economic complexity and product space analytics to identify potential avenues for economic diversification or frontier products. Fourth, through the use of firm interviews, to identify the constraints that prevent, and the capabilities that enable, firms to diversify into these frontier products. Fifth, examine the employment potential associated with these frontier products. And finally, to provide a set of policy options that would facilitate this process of complexity building structural change. |
| Keywords: | Economic complexity, economic development, Africa Rising, structural transformation, women, youth, employment |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:201906&r= |
| By: | Eric Monnet,; Angelo Riva,; Stefano Ungaro. |
| Abstract: | We investigate the causal impact of bank runs by exploiting a key feature of the French Great Depression (1930-1931) that created exogenous geographical variations in the withdrawals of bank deposits. Unregulated commercial banks coexisted with government-backed saving institutions (Caisses d’épargne). During the crisis, depositors who had an account in Caisses d’épargne were more likely to withdraw from banks. Pre-crisis density of Caisses d’épargne accounts was unrelated to economic and bank characteristics. Using this variable as an instrument, we find that a 1% decrease in bank branches reduced aggregate income by 1%. Our identification highlights how a shift of deposits towards safer institutions can affect financial fragility. It holds lessons for current financial regulation and the design of central bank digital currency (CBDC). <p> Nous étudions l’impact causal des paniques bancaires en exploitant une caractéristique essentielle de la Grande Dépression française (1930-1931) qui entraîna des variations géographiques exogènes des retraits des dépôts bancaires. Les banques commerciales, non réglementées, coexistaient avec les Caisses d’Épargne, régulées par l’État. Pendant la crise, les déposants titulaires d’un compte dans les Caisses d’épargne étaient plus susceptibles de retirer leurs dépôts des banques. La densité des Caisses d’Épargne au niveau départemental avant la crise n’était pas liée aux caractéristiques économiques et bancaires du département. En utilisant cette variable comme instrument, nous constatons qu’une baisse de 1 % des guichets bancaires réduisit le PIB local de 1 %. Notre identification montre comment un transfert des dépôts vers des institutions plus sûres peut affecter la stabilité financière. Elle permet également de tirer des enseignements pour la réglementation financière actuelle et pour la conception des monnaies digitales de banque centrale (CBDC). |
| Keywords: | bank runs, flight-to-safety, banking panics, Great Depression; ruées bancaires, fuite vers la sécurité, paniques bancaires, Grande Dépression |
| JEL: | E44 E51 G01 G21 N14 N24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:decfin:37&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Eaton; Marcela Eslava; David Jinkins; C. J. Krizan; James Tybout |
| Abstract: | Exporting abroad is much harder than selling at home, and overcoming hurdles to exporting takes time. Our goal is to identify specific barriers to exporting and to measure their importance. We develop a model of firm-level export dynamics that features costly customer search, network effects in finding buyers, and learning about product appeal. Fitting the model to customs records of U.S. imports of manufactures from Colombia we replicate patterns of exporter maturation. A potentially valuable intangible asset of a firm is its customer base and knowledge of a market. Our model delivers some striking estimates of what such assets are worth. Averaging across active exporters, the loss from total market amnesia (losing its current U.S. customer base along with its accumulated knowledge of product appeal) is US$ 3.4 million, about 34 percent of the value of exporting overall. About half is the loss of future sales to existing customers while the rest is the cost of relearning its appeal in the market and reestablishing visibility as an exporter. Given the importance of search, learning, and visibility, the 5-year response of total export sales to an exchange rate shock exceeds the 1-year response by about 40 percent. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:21-17&r= |
| By: | Javier Aliaga Lordemann (Senior Associate Researcher at INESAD); Sergio Mansilla (Junior Researcher at INESAD) |
| Abstract: | Public and private infrastructure has an important role in economic growth, human development, and quality of life; hence the investment on infrastructure provision (access) probably will have a direct and positive effect on productivity and innovation, at the same time a better distribution of this infrastructure access (equity) will have a positive but indirect effect on welfare. Under these assumptions, the objective of this paper is to assess the impact of Telecommunications (TELECOM) investment over - first - the growth and evolution in the access and equity to various services – i.e., fixed, mobile, and broadband during the last 15 years in Bolivia; and – second – to evaluate the investment causality over the sectoral GDP. First, we derived a long-term parsimonious equation specified as an Error Correction Model (ECM) estimated from an Autoregressive Model with distributed lags (ARDL). Second, we estimated several sets of Social Opportunity Functions (FOS) for the TELECOM to evaluate the degree of inclusiveness in the sense of Ali and Son (2007). Our main findings show that Public investment indicates a crowding-out effect in the short and long term over the sectoral GDP; and the long-term relationship between these variables has convergence toward its long-term equilibrium for the period 1990-2020. Also, the access to household’s internet in the urban areas has been moderate during the last 15 years, but there is still a lack of distribution to this opportunity. Regarding to rural household’s, we verify that it continues to be very low and has an inequitable distribution of access; however, we expect this result due to this service (household internet) is competing with mobile devices. Summarizing, we verify the hypothesis of Chatterjee and Turnovsky (2012) “… higher spending on infrastructure increases the growth rate, but it favors the rich and increases inequality” … in the absence of mechanisms to improve equity in access. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure, growth, inclusiveness, access, equity, telecommunications . |
| JEL: | H54 D63 L96 O41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202104&r= |
| By: | Yulianti Abbas (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Christine Tjen (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Panggah Tri Wicaksono (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of “Pajak Bertutur”, a tax education program in Indonesia. We analyze whether there were differences in students’ tax awareness before and after the program, and whether the results of the program were influenced by students’ familiarity with taxation. We distributed an online survey questionnaire to all students participating in the 2020 tax education program, resulting in a total of 693 responses, 461 for pre-survey and 232 for post-survey. Using multivariate regression analysis, our results suggest that students’ tax awareness level increased after the tax education program. We also found that the increase in tax awareness was greater for students who are familiar with tax authority website and those who have learned about taxation before the event. These findings thus indicate that the effectiveness of the tax education program is influenced by the students’ prior knowledge, emphasizing that a continuous tax education program is necessary to improve tax awareness. |
| Keywords: | tax education — — tax awareness — tax knowledge — tax inclusion |
| JEL: | A22 H20 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202160&r= |
| By: | Li, Erqian; Härdle, Wolfgang; Dai, Xiaowen; Tian, Maozai |
| Abstract: | The proportional subdistribution hazards (PSH) model is popularly used to deal with competing risks data. Censored quantile regression provides an important supplement as well as variable selection methods, due to large numbers of irrelevant covariates in practice. In this paper, we study variable selection procedures based on penalized weighted quantile regression for competing risks models, which is conveniently applied by researchers. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators including consistency and asymptotic normality of non-penalized estimator and consistency of variable selection are established. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted, showing that the proposed methods are considerably stable and efficient. A real data about bone marrow transplant (BMT) is also analyzed to illustrate the application of proposed procedure. |
| Keywords: | Competing risks,Cumulative incidence function,Kaplan-Meier estimator,Redistribution method |
| JEL: | C00 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2021013&r= |
| By: | Edwin van der Werf; Herman R. J. Vollebergh; Johanna Vogel |
| Abstract: | Limiting global warming to no more than 2°C requires global large-scale deployment of low-carbon and negative emissions technologies. This requires the development of new eco-innovations and the diffusion of new and existing ones. Existing portfolios of environmental and technology policy instruments, however, may not be up to this task. In this paper, we develop an evaluative framework for the assessment of existing and new policy instruments for the successful development and deployment of eco-innovations. Our evaluative framework considers focus, scope, strictness, coherence and timing as key criteria for the evaluation of policy instruments for the transition to a low-carbon economy. We apply our framework to the residential and commercial (buildings) sector in an ambitious country, Austria. |
| Keywords: | climate change mitigation policy, policy instruments, eco-innovation |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9192&r= |
| By: | Teodor Narcis Godeanu (Spiru Haret University, Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The present study aims to analyze some aspects related to the right to strike regime. We aim to start from the general to the individual, from this right, in its capacity as a fundamental right of employees and continuing with the particularities of manifestation within certain categories of people. These are public sector staff in general and some categories of staff in this sector, in particular. A first approach considers civil servants, which is the most discussed and disputed category in the doctrine of labor law and, respectively, the doctrine of public law. The second approach concerns some civil servants subject to a special status, such as staff in the public order and safety system. Can they exercise their right to strike? If not, why not? If so, to what extent? The usefulness of the theme was determined by what is happening in contemporary reality. |
| Keywords: | rights, freedoms, the right to strike, personnel, the public sector, civil servants, civil servants with special status |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01255&r= |
| By: | Moslehi, Solmaz (Monash University); Parasnis, Jaai (Monash University); Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales); Vejayaratnam, Josephina (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between Covid-19 lockdowns and domestic assaults in New South Wales and Victoria using police data on crime by Local Government Area over the period 2019-2020. We apply both Ordinary Least Squares and a fixed effect estimator, and find that domestic assaults decline during the lockdowns of 2020, but less than other types of assaults. As a result, there is a higher relative incidence of domestic assaults rather than an overall increase in crime. The results are robust to omitted variable bias based on Oster's (2019) test, and mimic Boman and Gallupe (2020) - a similar study carried out in the US. |
| Keywords: | domestic assault, COVID-19, lockdowns, crime |
| JEL: | I10 K42 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14573&r= |
| By: | NAKASHIMA, KIYOTAKA; Ogawa, Toshiaki |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of strengthening bank capital supervision on bank behavior in the incomplete enforcement of regulations. In a dynamic model of banks facing persistent idiosyncratic shocks, banks accumulate regulatory capital and decrease charter value and lending in the short run, while in the long run, the banking system achieves stability. To test the short-run implications, we utilize the introduction of the prompt corrective action program in Japan as a quasi-natural experiment. Using some empirical specifications with bank- and loan-level data, we find empirical evidence consistent with the theoretical predictions. |
| Keywords: | regulatory surveillance; incomplete enforcement; heterogeneous bank model; prompt corrective action; bank capital ratio; credit crunch |
| JEL: | G00 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109147&r= |
| By: | Faria, Joao Ricardo; McAdam, Peter; Viscolani, Bruno |
| Abstract: | We study the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in a Ramsey-Sidrauski model augmented with environmental capital. Equilibrium solutions are studied through the “Green Golden Rule”. Despite the non-separability of money in utility and intertemporally non-separable preferences, money is environmentally neutral. Policy impacts the environment via the marginal rate of transformation rather than the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and environment. Fiscal policies, lump sum and distortionary, under a balanced budget, are also environmentally non-neutral. Only under a non-balanced budget, when deficits are monetized, is money environmentally non-neutral. In alternative approaches (Cash-in-Advance, Transactions Costs), money is environmentally non-neutral. JEL Classification: E52, E62, H23 |
| Keywords: | cash in advance, Chichilnisky et al. conjecture, environmental capital, Friedman rule, green golden rule, Ramsey-Sidrauski, transactions costs |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212573&r= |
| By: | Rajeev K. Goel; Ummad Mazhar; Rati Ram |
| Abstract: | This study uses a large firm-level data set covering more than 80 countries to explore the effects of firm-size, city-size, and government-size on perceived and experienced corruption. Four points summarize our main findings, which seem instructive and new. First, there is a broad structural similarity in the major determinants of perceived and experienced corruption. Second, larger firms and larger government size lower corruption perceptions and experience. Third, larger cities raise corruption perceptions and experience. Fourth, when the sample is limited to large cities, the corruption-lowering effect of government size loses significance throughout, while firm size loses significance in experience regressions. |
| Keywords: | corruption perception, corruption experience, firm size, government size, city size, emerging economies |
| JEL: | K42 L25 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9221&r= |
| By: | Hochstetler, Kathryn |
| Abstract: | What kinds of national climate institutions can solve the governance challenges that the Paris Agreement devolves to them? This article identifies three stages of climate institutions in Brazil, a major emitter of greenhouse gases through deforestation that managed to reduce such emissions for nearly a decade. It shows that a narrow definition of climate institutions that seeks purpose-built state institutions fails to capture important dynamics there, and that such institutions have little direct impact on outcomes. In Brazil’s political landscape, national presidents exercise a decisive influence on their climate ambitions and capacities. However, positive and negative feedback loops also brought some effective climate action from the layering of climate purposes into existing institutions, as well as through non-traditional institutions like private governance arrangements for agriculture. |
| Keywords: | climate change; climate institutions; Brazil; deforestation; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111417&r= |
| By: | Jan Matas; Jan Posp\'i\v{s}il |
| Abstract: | Rough Volterra volatility models are a progressive and promising field of research in derivative pricing. Although rough fractional stochastic volatility models already proved to be superior in real market data fitting, techniques used in simulation of these models are still inefficient in terms of speed and accuracy. This paper aims to present the accurate tools and techniques that could be used also in nowadays largely emerging pricing methods based on machine learning. In particular, we compare three widely used simulation methods: the Cholesky method, the Hybrid scheme, and the rDonsker scheme. We also comment on implementation of variance reduction techniques. In particular, we show the obstacles of the so-called turbocharging technique whose performance is sometimes contra productive. To overcome these obstacles, we suggest several modifications. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01999&r= |
| By: | Fatih Ozhamaratli (University College London); Oleg Kitov (University of Cambridge); Paolo Barucca (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Each individual in society experiences an evolution of their income during their lifetime. Macroscopically, this dynamics creates a statistical relationship between age and income for each society. In this study, we investigate income distribution and its relationship with age and identify a stable joint distribution function for age and income within the United Kingdom and the United States. We demonstrate a flexible calibration methodology using panel and population surveys and capture the characteristic differences between the UK and the US populations. The model here presented can be utilised for forecasting income and planning pensions. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00848&r= |
| By: | Denis Dupré (STEEP - Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy - Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | The issues of private property and survival are intimately intertwined in Francis of Assisi's vision of the radical imagination as defined by Castoriadis. His concept of property pulverizes the classical usus fructus abusus and replaces it with charity. Today a pragmatic philosophical reading of Pope Francis' encyclical Laudate Si illuminates a very Franciscan approach to property. It is the analysis of the means of access to basic food for survival that has given rise to the concept of common goods, in the sense of Ostrom, defined by Polanyi: land, money and work. For today, and taking into account possible collapses, we think it is useful to rely on these approaches to reform our institutions and put them at the service of survival for all. |
| Abstract: | Les questions de la propriété privée et de la survie sont intimement mêlées chez François d'Assise en une vision qui témoigne de l'imagination radicale telle que définie par Castoriadis. Son concept de propriété pulvérise le classique usus fructus abusus et le remplace par la charité. Aujourd'hui une lecture philosophique pragmatique de l'encyclique Laudate Si du pape François éclaire une approche très franciscaine de la propriété. C'est l'analyse des moyens d'accès à la nourriture de base pour la survie qui a fait apparaitre le concept des biens communs, au sens d'Ostrom, définis par Polanyi : la terre, la monnaie et le travail. Pour aujourd'hui et en tenant compte des effondrements possibles, nous pensons utile de nous appuyer sur ces approches pour réformer nos institutions et les mettre au service de la survie pour tous. |
| Abstract: | Le questioni della proprietà privata e della sopravvivenza sono intimamente intrecciate nella visione di Francesco d'Assisi dell'immaginazione radicale come definita da Castoriadis. Il suo concetto di proprietà polverizza il classico usus fructus abususus e lo sostituisce con la carità. Oggi una lettura filosofica pragmatica dell'enciclica Laudato Si' di Papa Francesco illumina un approccio molto francescano alla proprietà. È l'analisi dei mezzi di accesso al cibo di base per la sopravvivenza che ha dato origine al concetto di beni comuni, nel senso di Ostrom, definito da Polanyi: terra, denaro e lavoro. Per oggi e tenendo conto dei possibili crolli, pensiamo che sia utile contare su questi approcci per riformare le nostre istituzioni e metterle al servizio della sopravvivenza di tutti. |
| Keywords: | radical imagination,environmental justice,Polanyi,Castoriadis,property,Francis of Assisi',pope Francis,common good,survival |
| Date: | 2021–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03279027&r= |
| By: | Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); María Emma Santos (IIESS-Departamento de Economía-Universidad Nacional del Sur and CONICET.); Leopoldo Tornarolli (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This chapter discusses the measurement of monetary and multidimensional poverty in Latin America, and documents the main patterns and trends. By providing an updated assessment of the level, changes and characteristics of poverty in the region we expect to contribute to the more ambitious debate on its determinants and policy implications. |
| JEL: | I3 I32 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0284&r= |
| By: | Bailey, Nick (University of Glasgow); Guio, Anne-Catherine |
| Abstract: |