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on Islamic Finance |
| By: | Muhammad Mirza (School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i Azam University); Hussain Abbas (The Islamia University of Bahawalpur - IUB (PAKISTAN)); Irfan Hasnain Qaisrani (Bahria University) |
| Abstract: | Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in a strenuous competition in the Middle East to protect and promote their respective spheres of influence, to each other's detriment. This qualitative study traces the structural sources of this competition while taking cue from the history. It argues that demise of Saddam Hussein, Iraq's plunging into civil war, and Arab Spring leading to violent movements in Syria, Libya, Bahrain, and Yemen accentuated Saudi–Iran competition in the region. Study finds that the sources of their rivalry lie at structural level and can be understood by focusing upon their aspiration for the Muslim world leadership, religio-sectarianism, antithetical governance structure, and Iranian nuclear program. |
| Abstract: | L'Arabie saoudite et l'Iran se livrent une concurrence acharnée au Moyen-Orient pour protéger et promouvoir leurs sphères d'influence respectives, au détriment l'un de l'autre. Cette étude qualitative retrace les sources structurelles de cette compétition en s'inspirant de l'histoire. Il fait valoir que la disparition de Saddam Hussein, la plongée de l'Irak dans la guerre civile et le printemps arabe entraînant des mouvements violents en Syrie, en Libye, à Bahreïn et au Yémen ont accentué la concurrence entre l'Arabie saoudite et l'Iran dans la région. Une étude révèle que les sources de leur rivalité se situent au niveau structurel et peuvent être comprises en se concentrant sur leur aspiration au leadership mondial musulman, au sectarisme religieux, à la structure de gouvernance antithétique et au programme nucléaire iranien. |
| Keywords: | Saudi Arabia,Iran,Middle East,sphere of influence,proxy warfare,sectarianism,Iranian nuclear program |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03289613&r= |
| By: | Hossain Ahmed Taufiq |
| Abstract: | The 2017 crackdown on Rakhine Rohingyas by the Myanmar army (Tatmadaw) pushed more than 600,000 refugees into Bangladesh. Both Western and Islamic countries denounced Aung Sang Suu Kyis government, but both Asian giants, China and India, supported Myanmars actions. Both also have high stakes in Myanmar given their long-term geopolitics and geoeconomic South and Southeast Asian plans. In spite of Myanmar-based commonalities, Chinas and Indias approaches differ significantly, predicting equally dissimilar outcomes. This chapter examines their foreign policy and stakes in Myanmar in order to draw a sketch of the future of Rakhine Rohingyas stuck in Bangladesh. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13727&r= |
| By: | Abdul Halim, Asyraf |
| Abstract: | A Shariah compliant firm faces a trade-off between keeping their Shariah compliancy versus having their long-term debt to assets or market-capitalisation ratio above 30%, when they operate within a market with little or no access to a liquid Islamic debt market. On the other hand, Proposition 1 of Modigliani & Miller (1963) posits that interest tax shield benefits, derived from long-term debt, reduce the hypothetical firm’s investment cut-off rate and therefore provide extra value for the firm. Facing a ceiling value on their long-term debt to assets or market-capitalisation ratio, Shariah compliant firms therefore should be unable to fully enjoy lower interest tax shield benefits, and consequently, lower investment cut-off rate vis-à-vis their conventional counterparts. Subsequently, any samples of Shariah compliant firms formed within a market without access to a liquid Islamic debt market should demonstrate a consistent tendency towards a specific set corporate financial behaviour due to the consistently higher than average investment cut-off rate. This paper extends the theoretical work of Modigliani & Miller (1963) to, firstly, demonstrate how a higher-than-average investment cut-off rate is a natural consequence of the debt ratio screening incorporated within the contemporary Shariah Stock Screening Methodology for a Shariah compliant firm that is devoid of access to a liquid Islamic debt market. Next, the paper outlines (with supporting empirical stylised facts) the subsequent corporate financial characteristics that samples of Shariah compliant firms are more skewed towards. The paper finds that Shariah compliant firm faces a theoretical floor limit to their investment-cut off rate, implying that the average Shariah compliant firm may find that lesser projects pass their internal rate of return vis-à-vis the projects of a similar conventional firm. Consequently, samples of Shariah compliant firms consistently show the following corporate financial characteristics; above-average size, larger marginal change in size and profitability in response to a given marginal change in investments, low book-to-market ratio and lower investment rates, when compared to a sample of conventional firms. |
| Keywords: | Shariah Stock Screening Methodologies, Shariah Debt Ratio Screening, Investment cut-off rate, Corporate Financial Behaviour |
| JEL: | G30 G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109019&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The economy is recovering after a major, pandemic-induced economic downturn. The authorities have deployed a comprehensive set of policy responses that have helped to mitigate the socioeconomic impact and maintain financial stability. The economic recovery slowed in the first half of 2021 due to a second wave of COVID-19 infections. Vaccination has started and is poised to accelerate from midyear. |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/177&r= |
| By: | Facundo Alvaredo (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anthony B Atkinson (NUFFIELD COLLEGE - Nuffield College - University of Oxford [Oxford]); Thomas Blanchet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lucas Chancel (IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Luis Estevez Bauluz (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Matthew Fisher-Post (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ignacio Flores (WIL - World Inequality Lab); Bertrand Garbinti (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Clara Martínez-Toledano (WIL - World Inequality Lab); Marc Morgan (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Neef Theresa; Thomas Piketty (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anne-Sophie Robilliard (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme); Emmanuel Saez (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Gabriel Zucman (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Li Yang |
| Date: | 2021–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03307584&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Following the October 2020 election, the new administration moved to tackle the devastating human and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy shows signs of recovery from its 8.8 percent contraction in 2020. However, fiscal imbalances have increased and international reserves continue to fall. On February 12, Bolivia repurchased the 240.1 million SDR purchase under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument (that was approved by the Fund’s Executive Board in April 2020). |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/180&r= |
| By: | Nizar, Muhammad Afdi; Mansur, Alfan |
| Abstract: | A risk-based premium scheme could be a reliable system to determine a fairer deposit insurance premium. This research aimed to assess Indonesian banks’ risk profile, including per size classification and ownership as well as to counterfactually simulate a risk-based deposit insurance system for the individual banks. This research combined analysis of variance (ANOVA) and non-parametric approach applied to 75 banks (2008q1-2019q3). The results showed that big banks did not necessarily posture better risk management compared to small banks. Also, under the risk-based scheme, banks with better risk management could be rewarded, while less prudent banks could be punished. |
| Keywords: | Deposit; premium; flat-rate; risk-based; banks; insurance |
| JEL: | C12 C54 G21 G28 G3 G30 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109083&r= |
| By: | Mohamad Ikhsan (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | As in other countries, COVID-19 has created pressure on Indonesia’s food security through decreased income and reduced access, as well as increased transaction costs and uncertainty in the country’s food system. Before assessing these impacts of COVID-19, we highlight several key facts about Indonesia’s food system, including the high proportion of net consumers among farmers and the domination of informal small-medium enterprises in the supply chain. We then emphasize that food security is threatened by income shocks and purchasing power decline due to economic contraction, while effects on the supply side have been limited so far. While farmers’ terms of trade have increased throughout the pandemic, downstream food SMEs such as traditional food vendors are likely worse affected by COVID-19 restriction measures. On the labor market, we observe a substantial shift of workers to agriculture, accompanied by a deeper drop in the sector’s wage level compared to other sectors. Finally, we caution that risks to food security remain, especially as Indonesia faces new COVID-19 outbreaks post-Eid 2021, and outline policy recommendations related to social safety nets, supply chain resilience, and the use of technology. |
| Keywords: | Food Security — COVID-19 — Food Supply Chain — Food SMEs — Indonesia |
| JEL: | O13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202161&r= |
| By: | Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany); Martin Obschonka (Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia); Fabian Wahl (University of Hohenheim, Germany); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, The Netherlands, and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany) |
| Abstract: | A region’s present-day economic performance can be deeply anchored in historical factors. We provide the first systematic evidence of a deep imprinting effect in the context of Roman rule in the south-western part of Germany nearly 2,000 years ago. Our analysis reveals that regions in the former Roman part of Germany show a stronger entrepreneurship and innovation culture today, evident by higher levels of quantity and quality entrepreneurship and innovation. The data indicate that this lasting 'Roman effect' was constituted by the early establishment of interregional social and economic exchange and related infrastructure. Our findings thus help in unpacking the hidden cultural roots of present-day economic performance, with important implications for research and economic policy. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, innovation, historical roots, Romans, Limes |
| JEL: | N9 O1 I31 |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2021-012&r= |
| By: | Juliette Itangishatse; Kizito Ndihokubwayo; Jean Claude Byiringiro; Marie Sagesse Uwurukundo |
| Abstract: | Many countries undertake entrepreneurship lessons as an accelerator for creating new jobs and encouraging students to be entrepreneurs. The present study was carried out to track the female students’ career paths after completing high school. The study surveyed 41 students from both a day and a boarding school in Kayonza district, Rwanda. The findings reveal that female students from both schools prefer entrepreneurial jobs after completing high school. In comparison, 80% of students in the day and 58.5% of boarding school students chose their career path as entrepreneurs. The study was limited in the sample, and it suggested further research in the same area; however, it recommends teachers to inspire their students by inviting entrepreneurs around to school Key Words: Entrepreneurship, female students, boarding school, day school Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-06&r= |
| By: | Katherine Di Lucido; Nicholas K. Tabor; Jeffery Y. Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a brief history of the U.S. financial regulatory perimeter, a legal cordon comprised of “positive†and “negative†restrictions on the conduct of banking organizations. Today’s regulatory perimeter faces a wide range of challenges, from disaggregation, to new commercial entrants, to new varieties of charters (and new uses of legacy charters). We situate these challenges in the longer history of American banking, identifying a pattern in debates about the nature, shape, and position of the perimeter: outside-in pressure, inside-out pressure, and reform and expansion. We also observe a shift in this pattern, beginning roughly three decades ago, which gradually made the perimeter broader, more complex, and arguably more permeable. We show this trend graphically in an animation accompanying this paper. |
| Keywords: | Regulatory perimeter; Banking regulation; Law and economics; Non-bank financial intermediation |
| JEL: | K20 K40 N20 N40 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-51&r= |
| By: | Bernardo Melo Pimentel (NOVA SBE - NOVA - School of Business and Economics - NOVA - Universidade Nova de Lisboa = NOVA University Lisbon, ISEG - ISEG-Lisbon School of Economics and Management - University of Lisbon); Guillermo Ramírez (ESCP Europe - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris) |
| Abstract: | We describe how Sustainable Finance is understood in the European context, its current state, and its outlook. We argue that while the framework currently being developed to standardize our understanding of sustainable investments is absolutely necessary, it is also crucial for concrete laws and regulations to be created to incentivize actors in the financial markets to redirect funds from non-sustainable investments to sustainable alternatives. |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03286596&r= |
| By: | Yusuke Narita (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Ayumi Sudo (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Democracy is widely believed to contribute to economic growth and public health. However, we find that this conventional wisdom is no longer true and even reversed; democracy has persistent negative impacts on GDP growth since the beginning of this century. This finding emerges from five different instrumental variable strategies. Our analysis suggests that democracies cause slower growth through less investment, less trade, and slower value-added growth in manufacturing and services. For 2020, democracy is also found to cause more deaths from Covid-19. |
| Keywords: | Democracy, Economic Growth, Public Health, Causality |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2281r&r= |
| By: | Ruchi Avtar; Rajashri Chakrabarti; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy |
| Abstract: | A critical risk during the COVID-19 pandemic has been the possibility of the hospital system becoming overwhelmed. COVID-19 not only has killed nearly 2 percent of people with confirmed infections but causes many more who contract it to develop severe complications that are potentially fatal if not treated in an intensive care unit (ICU). As ICU capacity is based on typical needs for intensive care before the pandemic, a surge of COVID-related ICU patients may leave no room for individuals requiring intensive care for other reasons—such as heart attacks—or may exceed the total ICU capacity to treat even COVID-19 patients. In this post, we investigate the extent to which members of different racial and ethnic groups faced different levels of hospital system stress during the “third wave” of COVID-19 in the winter of 2021, which, as the largest wave to hit the United States, briefly brought intensive care units around the country to the point of being overwhelmed. We find that while Black and Hispanic individuals faced the greatest exposure to overburdened ICUs over the course of the third wave from beginning to end, Asian American and Pacific Islanders (AAPI) went from experiencing more stable ICU capacities than the national average at the beginning of the wave to a nearly overwhelmed ICU system at its peak. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; race; ICU; hospital |
| JEL: | J15 I14 |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:92951&r= |
| By: | Yosuke Uno (Bank of Japan); Akira Sonoda (Bank of Japan); Masaki Bessho (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a survey of a field called the economics of privacy. Reflecting growing concerns worldwide about the handling of personal data on the Internet, the economics of privacy is developing rapidly, coinciding with recent efforts by privacy regulators to tighten regulations. The literature argues that it is difficult for market mechanisms to resolve problems such as how to determine the socially optimal level of privacy protection and how to avoid excessive privacy loss driven by negative data externalities. These insights should be useful for policymakers facing the question of how to deal with personal data issues and to ensure that people's privacy is protected. |
| JEL: | D62 D82 D83 K20 M31 M37 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp21e11&r= |
| By: | Jens Klose (THM Business School Giessen) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates similarities and differences between gold and four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin). To do so, we estimate a system-GARCH-in-mean with respect to four determinants for the period starting 7/18/2014 at earliest until 7/12/2021. We find that, first, liquidity premia are less important. Second, volatility premia exist in either gold and cryptocurrencies. Third, the response of cryptocurrencies to exchange rate changes is more pronounced than for gold at least if developing countries are included. Fourth, gold exhibits a safe haven status, while cryptocurrencies do not. So those cannot be seen as a store of value but rather as speculative assets. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrencies, Gold, System-GARCH-in-mean |
| JEL: | E42 G15 C58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202128&r= |
| By: | Hernán Vallejo |
| Abstract: | This article builds a simple model of oligopoly and uses it to make a detailed characterization of the equilibrium prices; quantities; mark-ups; price elasticities of market demand; price elasticities of residual demand; and welfare, all in terms of the parameters of the model. This is done under five different conjectures -Collusion, Threat, Cournot, Stackelberg and Bertrand-. The results of the model are used do comparative statics. |
| Keywords: | Oligopoly, Collusion, Threat, Cournot, Stackelberg, Bertrand, mark-up |
| JEL: | C70 C71 D43 L13 |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019428&r= |
| By: | Daga, Rosnaini |
| Abstract: | The study is entitled Analysis of the Financial Performance of PT PLN (Persero) in South, Southeast, and West Sulawesi, before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aims to determine and analyze financial performance using financial ratios, including liquidity ratios, solvency ratios, activity ratios, and profitability ratios. The method used in this study is quantitative. |
| Date: | 2021–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:e5nza&r= |
| By: | Dikau, Simon; Volz, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Chinese monetary and financial authorities have been among the pioneers in promoting green finance. This paper investigates the use of one specific monetary policy tool, namely window guidance, by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) and the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) to encourage financial institutions to expand credit to sustainable activities and curb lending to heavy-polluting industries. We investigate window guidance targets for the period 2001-2020 and find that ‘green window guidance’ was used by the CBRC from at least 2006 and by the PBC from 2007 to discourage lending to carbon-intensive and polluting industries and/or to increase support to sustainable activities. Both authorities stopped discouraging lending to carbon-intensive/polluting industries in 2014. Sustainable objectives were subsequently also removed from the PBC’s list of priority sectors at the start of 2019, ending the practice of green window guidance in China. Sustainability-enhancing window guidance targets were replaced and formalised through new ‘Guidelines for Establishing the Green Financial System’, reflecting efforts to move away from controls-based towards market-based policy instruments. Based on this analysis, the paper draws four lessons for the design of green finance policies for other countries that seek to enhance sustainable finance and mitigate climate change and related risks. |
| Keywords: | sustainable finance; central banking and financial supervision; China; Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy; ES/P005241/1; ES/R009708/1; 71661137002 |
| JEL: | G10 G20 G30 Q01 Q50 |
| Date: | 2021–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111489&r= |
| By: | Kurt Sant |
| Abstract: | This study constructs a COVID-19 response tracker for Malta following the methodology developed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) project. The tracker is based on data for 16 indicators that are in turn aggregated into a set of four indices – Government response index; Containment and health index; Economic support index; and Stringency index. After describing the construction of the tracker and outlining how Malta’s response evolved during 2020 and early 2021, the note studies the relationship between movements in this tracker and macroeconomic indicators such as economic sentiment, retail trade, industrial production and labour market variables, as well as with a novel database made available by Google on local mobility during the pandemic. The study also compares developments in Malta’s tracker with those in the Euro Area and its constituent Member States. A heatmap analysis shows how Malta’s response along the different dimensions of the index compared with its European peers. |
| JEL: | E00 H12 H51 I12 I15 I18 I19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mlt:ppaper:0221&r= |
| By: | Luca J. Santos; Alessandro V. M. Oliveira; Dante Mendes Aldrighi |
| Abstract: | The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies' income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1 per cent higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153 per cent to 0.166 per cent more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00850&r= |
| By: | Adam, Klaus; Gautier, Erwan; Santoro, Sergio; Weber, Henning |
| Abstract: | Using micro price data underlying the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in France, Germany and Italy, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle and show that minimizing price and mark-up distortions in the presence of these trends requires targeting a significantly positive inflation target. Relative price trends shift the optimal inflation target up from a level of zero percent, as suggested by the standard sticky price literature, to a range of 1.1%- 2.1% in France, 1.2%-2.0% in Germany, 0.8%-1.0% in Italy, and 1.1-1.7% in the Euro Area (three country average). Differences across countries emerge due to systematic differences in the strength of relative price trends. Other considerations not taken into account in the present paper may push up the optimal inflation targets further. The welfare costs associated with targeting zero inflation turn out to be substantial and range between 2.1% and 4.5% of consumption in present-value terms. JEL Classification: E31, E52 |
| Keywords: | micro price trends, optimal inflation target, welfare |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212575&r= |
| By: | Bouchra Benyacoub (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah) |
| Abstract: | Financial inclusion is the set of mechanisms put in place to enable individuals and businesses, which are excluded from the traditional banking circuit, to access and use financial products and services adapted to their needs. Financial inclusion enables poor people to finance their activities, save and provide for their families. Several studies have demonstrated significant impact that access to and use of financial services has on the lives of individuals and businesses, which in turn leads to increased savings, productive investment, consumption, poverty reduction and women's empowerment. Poor and vulnerable people, especially women, are the most excluded and face great difficulties in accessing formal financial services. The gender gap is wider in Morocco than in similar countries: only 34% of women have access to a bank account compared to 66% of men. Financial inclusion is therefore both an opportunity and a necessity, but is nevertheless hindered by a number of obstacles. The objective of this study is to map out and analyze the barriers to women's financial inclusion through a quantitative study using SPSS software. The study found that the main barriers to women's financial inclusion include their lack of knowledge of financial services, cultural or religious factors, and lack of provisions or aversion to credit. In order to strengthen women's financial inclusion, it is necessary to develop financial services that meet the needs of all social categories and particularly women, the popularization of financial services and products for women, and financial education, which is one of the pillars of financial inclusion, Finally, the use of mobile banking, which is considered a gas pedal of access to and use of financial services, consists of banking transactions carried out from a cell phone, which makes it possible to compensate for the low penetration of formal financial services and to remove the barriers imposed by traditional channels that penalize a large clientele, particularly women. |
| Abstract: | Déclaration de divulgation : L'auteur n'a pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude. Conflit d'intérêts : L'auteurs ne signale aucun conflit d'intérêts. Citer cet article Benyacoub, B. (2021). Étude empirique sur les freins à l'inclusion financière des femmes au Maroc. L'inclusion financière est l'ensemble des dispositifs mis en place pour permettre aux particuliers et aux entreprises, qui sont exclus du circuit bancaire classique, d'accéder et d'utiliser des produits et services financiers adaptés à leurs besoins. L'inclusion financière permet aux populations pauvres de financer leurs activités, d'épargner et de subvenir aux besoins de leur famille. Plusieurs études Cull et al. (2014) ont prouvé l'impact significatif de l'accès et de l'utilisation des services financiers sur la vie des particuliers et des entreprises ce qui va entrainer par la suite à la croissance de l'épargne, l'augmentation de l'investissement productif, de la consommation, la réduction de la pauvreté et de l'autonomisation des femmes. Les personnes pauvres et vulnérables, en particulier les femmes sont les plus exclues et font face à de grandes difficultés pour accéder aux services financiers formels. L'écart entre les hommes et les femmes est plus important au Maroc. Selon BAM, (2019), seulement 34% des femmes marocaines ont accès à un compte bancaire contre 66% des hommes. L'inclusion financière est donc une opportunité et une nécessité, mais se trouve néanmoins freinée par un certain nombre d'obstacles. L'objectif de cette étude est d'étaler et d'analyser les entraves à l'inclusion financière des femmes à travers une étude quantitative en utilisant le logiciel SPSS. Cette étude a montré que parmi les principaux obstacles à l'inclusion financière des femmes : leur ignorance des services financiers, les facteurs culturels ou religieux, manque de provisions ou aversion aux crédits. Pour renforcer l'inclusion financière des femmes, il faut améliorer la qualité des services financiers afin qu'ils correspondent aux besoins de toutes les classes sociales et particulièrement des femmes, la vulgarisation de services et des produits financiers destinés aux femmes, l'éducation financière, qui constitue un des piliers de l'inclusion financière, ce qui permet aux femmes de connaitre les produits et services financiers et les aide à prendre des décisions financières avec moindres risques et enfin l'utilisation du Mobile Banking qui est considéré comme un accélérateur de l'accès et de l'utilisation des services financiers, qui consiste en des transactions bancaires effectuées depuis un téléphone mobile qui permet de palier à la faible pénétration des services financiers formels et lever les barrières imposées par les circuits classiques qui pénalisent une large clientèle en particulier les femmes. |
| Keywords: | Financial education,Access to Finance,Accès Au Financement,Education Financière,Inclusion Financière |
| Date: | 2021–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03306210&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year has been well-managed by the authorities. Timely and prudent fiscal and monetary easing shielded the economy from the full brunt of the crisis, while alleviating the health and social impact of the shock. Sound economic policies helped deliver macroeconomic stabilization, safeguard debt sustainability, and preserve investor confidence. While growth is expected to rebound in FY2021/22, the outlook is still clouded by uncertainty related to the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations. High public debt and large gross financing needs leave Egypt vulnerable to external shocks or changes in financial market conditions for EMs. Near-term fiscal and monetary policies should thus continue to support the recovery without accumulating undue imbalances. |
| Date: | 2021–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/163&r= |
| By: | Gregori Galofré-Vilà (Universidad Pública de Navarra & INARBE); María Gómez-León (Universidad Pública de Navarra & INARBE); David Stuckler (Bocconi University. Department of Social and Political Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Objectives- Evidence linking past experiences of worsening health and support for radical political views has generated concerns about the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The influenza pandemic that began in 1918 had a devastating impact on mortality. We test the hypothesis that deaths from the 1918 influenza pandemic contributed to the rise of fascism in Italy. Study design- Cross-sectional study comparing votes for the Fascist party and other mainstream parties in Italian cities in the general election of April 1924, using data that Corbetta and Piretti collected from state archives with yearly cause-specific mortality data, taken from the Italian historical statistical books (Statistica Delle Cause di Morte, edited by the Ministero per L’Industria, Il Commercio e Il Lavoro). Methods- We linked city-level regression models of Fascist vote shares in the 1924 election on changes in deaths from influenza in 1918 in 73 Italian cities, adjusting for socioeconomic factors, city-characteristics and regional dummies. To provide a ‘thicker’ interpretation of these quantitative patterns, we applied historical text mining to the newspaper Il Popolo d’Italia (Mussolini’s newspaper). Results- 4.1 million Italians contracted influenza and about 500,000 died. In cities with higher influenza death rates the Fascists gained higher vote shares. Each additional 1 influenza death/1,000 population was associated with a 3.12-percentage-point increase in vote share for the Fascist party in 1924 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.44 to 5.79). These results were consistent even after adjusting for casualties in World War I and indicators of social conflicts and economic hardship. There was no association between higher mortality and vote share for the Socialist or Communist parties. Historical archival analysis also shows how the Fascists exploited the pandemic for political gain. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nav:ecupna:2102&r= |
| By: | Jaime D. Acevedo-Viloria; Luisa Roa; Soji Adeshina; Cesar Charalla Olazo; Andr\'es Rodr\'iguez-Rey; Jose Alberto Ramos; Alejandro Correa-Bahnsen |
| Abstract: | Large digital platforms create environments where different types of user interactions are captured, these relationships offer a novel source of information for fraud detection problems. In this paper we propose a framework of relational graph convolutional networks methods for fraudulent behaviour prevention in the financial services of a Super-App. To this end, we apply the framework on different heterogeneous graphs of users, devices, and credit cards; and finally use an interpretability algorithm for graph neural networks to determine the most important relations to the classification task of the users. Our results show that there is an added value when considering models that take advantage of the alternative data of the Super-App and the interactions found in their high connectivity, further proofing how they can leverage that into better decisions and fraud detection strategies. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13673&r= |
| By: | Davillas, Apostolos (University of East Anglia); Burlinson, Andrew (University of East Anglia); Liu, Hui-Hsuan (Royal Veterinary College) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study to explore the association between fuel poverty and a set of well-being outcomes: life-satisfaction, self-reported health measures and more objectively measured biomarker data. Over and above the conventional income–fuel cost indicators, we also use more proximal heating deprivation indicators. We create and draw upon a set of composite indicators that concomitantly capture (the lack of) affordability and thermal comfort. Depending on which fuel deprivation indicator is used, we find heterogeneous associations between fuel poverty and our well-being outcomes. Employing combined fuel deprivation indicators, which takes into account the income–fuel cost balance and more proximal perceptions of heating adequacy, reveals the presence of more pronounced associations with life satisfaction and fibrinogen, one of our biological health measures. The presence of these strong associations would have been less pronounced or masked when using separately each of the components of our composite fuel deprivation indicators as well as in the case of self-reported generic measures of physical health. Lifestyle and chronic health conditions plays a limited role in attenuating our results, while material deprivation partially, but not fully, attenuates our associations between fuel deprivation and well-being. These results remain robust when bounding analysis is employed to test the potential confounding role of unobservables. Our analysis suggests that composite fuel deprivation indicators may be useful energy policy instruments for uncovering the underlining mechanism via which fuel poverty may get "under the skin". |
| Keywords: | fuel poverty, biomarkers, health, well-being |
| JEL: | I12 I31 I32 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14635&r= |
| By: | Sajid, Zoya; Iftikhar, Naba; Ghouri, Ushna; Siddiqui, Humbal; Uddin, Kaleem |
| Abstract: | Mobile banking is a convenient solution to access the financial services from anywhere around. Corporates, entrepreneurs and business person can easily use mobile apps to directly receive money from customers to phone numbers to process payments and save time. Mobile technology allows banks to reduce operating costs while maintaining customer satisfaction – but how real and true is this in Pakistan? The purpose of this study is to figure out what are the primary drivers of mobile banking adoption in Pakistan and how they affect customer satisfaction... Banking as a developing technology is being adopted by the surrounding banking departments. The research includes a survey and analysis based on a total of 250 replies, the majority of which were from Karachi, Pakistan. PLS-SEM was utilized in the study to test the research model and hypothesis. The data reveal that service quality, structural assurance, system quality, information quality, task characteristics, and task characteristics all have a favorable impact on consumer satisfaction, whereas, trust fully mediates the relationship. So because data was acquired from a small number of people, the study may be biased because the results are self-reported and respondents may have answered incorrectly, making the findings less credible. |
| Keywords: | Mobile Phone, Online Banking services, Customer Satisfaction, Internet banking, e-banking in Pakistan. |
| JEL: | M1 M3 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108938&r= |
| By: | Henri Njangang (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Sosson Tadadjeu (University of Dschang , Cameroon); Yann Nounamo (University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon); Brice Kamguia (University of Dschang, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The study assesses the role of governance in modulating the effect of oil wealth on wealth inequality in 45 countries in the world. The empirical evidence is based on Pooled Ordinary Least Squares and the Generalised Method of Moments. The findings show that oil rents unconditionally increase wealth inequality while govenance dyanmics (in terms of rule of law, corruption-control, government effectiveness, regulatory quality) moderate oil rents for an overall net negative effect on wealth inequality. Good governance thresholds at which the unconditional effect of oil rents on the wealth inequality changes from positive to negative are computed and discussed. It follows that while governance is a necessary condition for improving the redistributive effects of oil wealth, it becomes a sufficient condition for net positive improvements in wealth distribution only when some critical levels of good governance have been reached. Other policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Governance; Oil wealth; Wealth inequality, Panel data |
| JEL: | F21 F54 L71 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/049&r= |
| By: | Kajal Lahiri (University at Albany, SUNY); Huaming Peng (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute); Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University) |
| Abstract: | From the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined or ensemble forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. This uncertainty formula should incorporate forecaster discord, as justified by (i) disagreement as a component of combined forecast uncertainty, (ii) the model averaging literature and (iii) central banks’ communication of uncertainty via fan charts. Using new statistics to test for the homogeneity of idiosyncratic errors under the joint limits with both T and n approaching infinity simultaneously, we find that some previously used measures can significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Central Bank Communication, Disagreement, Ensemble, Forecast Combination, Panel Data, Uncertainty |
| JEL: | C12 C33 E37 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2021-005&r= |
| By: | Malgouyres, Clément (Paris School of Economics); Mayer, Thierry (Sciences Po, Paris); Mazet-Sonilhac, Clément (Sciences Po, Paris) |
| Abstract: | Suárez Serrato and Zidar (2016) identify state corporate tax incidence in a spatial equilibrium model with imperfectly mobile firms. Their identification argument rests on comparative-statics omitting a channel implied by their model: the link between common determinants of a location's attractiveness and the average idiosyncratic productivity of firms choosing that location. This compositional margin causes the labor demand elasticity to be independent from the product demand elasticity, impeding the identification of incidence from the four estimated reduced-form effects. Assigning consensual values to the unidentified parameters, we find that the incidence share born by firm-owners is closer to 25% than 40%. |
| Keywords: | incidence, corporate income tax, discrete/continuous choice |
| JEL: | H22 H25 H32 H71 R23 R51 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14569&r= |
| By: | Wesley H. Holliday; Eric Pacuit |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a new single-winner voting system using ranked ballots: Stable Voting. The motivating principle of Stable Voting is that if a candidate A would win without another candidate B in the election, and A beats B in a head-to-head majority comparison, then A should still win in the election with B included (unless there is another candidate A' who has the same kind of claim to winning, in which case a tiebreaker may choose between A and A'). We call this principle Stability for Winners (with Tiebreaking). Stable Voting satisfies this principle while also having a remarkable ability to avoid tied outcomes in elections even with small numbers of voters. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00542&r= |
| By: | Bloom, Nicholas; Manova, Kalina; Van Reenen, John; Sun, Stephen Teng; Yu, Zhihong |
| Abstract: | We study how management practices shape export performance using matched production-trade-management data for Chinese and American firms and a randomized control trial in India. Better-managed firms are more likely to export, sell more products to more destinations, and earn higher export revenues and profits. They export higher-quality products at higher prices and lower quality-adjusted prices. They import a wider range of inputs and inputs of higher quality and price, from more advanced countries. We rationalize these patterns with a heterogeneous-firm model in which effective management improves performance by raising production efficiency and quality capacity. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 L81 N0 |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111559&r= |
| By: | Galstyan, Vahagn (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the empirical relation between inflation and unemployment over the past 25 years by using a panel state-space model. After controlling for the global factor, I find that the domestic rate of unemployment explains 11 percent in the variation of headline inflation, suggesting a significant power that domestic slack has in influencing medium-term core inflation. The global factor, in turn, is well explained by global oil and food prices as well as global trade integration. The contribution of the global slack in explaining the global component of inflation is negligible. Additionally, using a set of threshold regressions, I identify break points that split inflation dynamics into various regimes. In particular, I find a higher sensitivity of inflation to unemployment in high-inflation and/or low unemployment regimes. This finding is consistent with less frequent price adjustments of firms in low-inflation and high-unemployment environments. |
| Keywords: | Phillips Curve, State-Space Model, Non-Linearities |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E50 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:5/rt/21&r= |
| By: | Salvatore Cardillo (Bank of Italy); Raffaele Gallo (Bank of Italy); Francesco Guarino (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the competing forces that are reshaping the European banking industry and the medium-term consequences for profitability and competition within the sector. The paper highlights that banks are rethinking their business model to address four challenges to emerge in the last decade: low interest rates, tighter regulation, technological innovation, and increasing competition from non-bank intermediaries. The shock generated by the Covid-19 pandemic adds to those developments and has the potential to accelerate them. Our analysis suggests that in order to successfully compete in the medium term banks will likely have to exploit the benefits of digitization, mainly deriving from the reduction in operating costs and the increase in the scale of production. Accommodating the surging demand for green finance is also likely to represent an important source of profits, resulting from the growth of the green market and the development of new specialized products and advisory services. Success in these strategies will presumably require a significant reorganization of banks’ activities to leverage on economies of scale and scope. |
| Keywords: | banking sector, bank business model, bank profitability, Covid-19, digitization |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_634_21&r= |
| By: | Boulier, Bryan; Emran, M. Shahe; Hoque, Nazmul |
| Abstract: | A substantial literature on women’s say in the household focuses on microcredit, but there is little evidence on the relative roles of credit and education. Using household survey data from Bangladesh, we provide a comparative analysis of the effects of education and microcredit on women’s decision making power in the household. We implement two econometric approaches: bias adjusted OLS estimator of Oster (2019) that extends the Altonji et al. (2005) approach where selection on observables is used as a guide to selection on unobservables, and doubly robust radius matching estimator of Lechner et al. (2011). The evidence suggests a limited impact of microcredit, consistent with the recent evidence from RCT based studies. In contrast, education is much more important for enhancing women’s say in a range of household decisions. There is no significant interaction effect between education and credit. Evidence from Gelbach decomposition suggests that outside employment is an important mediating mechanism, but household wealth and assortative marriage matching on education are not important. The impact of education on women’s decision making remains strong even after controlling for these mediating factors, pointing to the importance of other mechanisms such as self-confidence and better negotiation skills of educated women. |
| Keywords: | Women’s Empowerment, Household Decision Making, Women’s Education, Microcredit, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | C31 G21 J16 O10 |
| Date: | 2021–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109009&r= |
| By: | Anna Burova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Svetlana Popova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Sinyakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Yulia Ushakova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | We use credit registry data on all corporate loans issued by all Russian banks since 2017 to decompose the bank interest spreads into a common factor, as well as borrower and lender-related components while controlling for loan characteristics. We find that variation in loan rates associated with lender-specific factors (heterogeneity of banks) and borrower-specific factors (heterogeneity of borrowers) is substantial. We use the identified bank-specific components to measure fragmentation of the corporate credit market in Russia. We illustrate the developments in the Russian credit market during the pandemic using the obtained estimates. The results indicate that heterogeneity in banks’ interest rate setting is high and increased in the early stage of the pandemic. The range of borrower-related premiums charged by banks also widened (mostly due to increase in rates of loans to companies in sectors presumably affected by the pandemic). Finally, our results suggest that banks tightened non-interest loan conditions during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | bank interest margin, bank interest spread, corporate credit, credit registry, financial stability, credit market fragmentation, Russian banking sector in the pandemic. |
| JEL: | E44 E51 E52 E58 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps77&r= |
| By: | Maciej Ber\k{e}sewicz; Dagmara Nikulin |
| Abstract: | We use a dataset covering nearly the entire target population based on passively collected data from smartphones to measure the impact of the first COVID-19 wave on the gig economy in Poland. In particular, we focus on transportation (Uber, Bolt) and delivery (Wolt, Takeaway, Glover, DeliGoo) apps, which make it possible to distinguish between the demand and supply part of this market. Based on Bayesian structural time-series models, we estimate the causal impact of the first COVID-19 wave on the number of active drivers and couriers. We show a significant relative increase for Wolt and Glover (15% and 24%) and a slight relative decrease for Uber and Bolt (-3% and -7%) in comparison to a counterfactual control. The change for Uber and Bolt can be partially explained by the prospect of a new law (the so-called Uber Lex), which was already announced in 2019 and is intended to regulate the work of platform drivers. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11124&r= |
| By: | Packham, Natalie; Woebbeking, Fabian |
| Abstract: | We develop a general approach for stress testing correlations of financial asset portfolios. The correlation matrix of asset returns is specified in a parametric form, where correlations are represented as a function of risk factors, such as country and industry factors. A sparse factor structure linking assets and risk factors is built using Bayesian variable selection methods. Regular calibration yields a joint distribution of economically meaningful stress scenarios of the factors. As such, the method also lends itself as a reverse stress testing framework: using the Mahalanobis distance or highest density regions (HDR) on the joint risk factor distribution allows to infer worst-case correlation scenarios. We give examples of stress tests on a large portfolio of European and North American stocks. |
| Keywords: | Correlation stress testing,reverse stress testing,factor selection,scenario selection,Bayesian variable selection,market risk management |
| JEL: | G11 G32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2021012&r= |
| By: | Sugata Marjit; Noritsugu Nakanishi |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of wage fund as the basic source of credit, capital or finance in a dynamic Ricardian model, which consists of three classes of agents: the workers, the capitalist, and the producers of goods. We introduce and develop an elaborate dynamic wage fund model in the context of contemporary economic theory. The modified golden rule can be derived based on a mechanism significantly different from the standard Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans optimal growth framework. We also show that, although international trade in a static setting in the wage fund framework has real asymmetric distributional effects on the welfare of the agents just like the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, those asymmetric distributional impacts are nullified in the dynamic setting. In fact, trade liberalization is Pareto improving along the balanced growth path. |
| Keywords: | wage fund, Ricardo model, modified golden rule, gains from trade, balanced growth path |
| JEL: | B12 B17 F10 F43 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9218&r= |
| By: | Frank Geels (The Productivity Institute, Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester); Guillermo Ivan Pereira (The Productivity Institute, Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester); Jonatan Pinkse (The Productivity Institute, Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester) |
| Keywords: | green recovery, Covid-19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:004&r= |
| By: | Andreas Fuster; Aurel Hizmo; Lauren Lambie-Hanson; James Vickery; Paul S. Willen |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of US mortgage credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the mortgage market experienced a historic boom in 2020, we show there was also a large and sustained increase in intermediation markups that limited the pass-through of low rates to borrowers. Markups typically rise during periods of peak demand, but this historical relationship explains only part of the large increase during the pandemic. We present evidence that pandemic-related labor market frictions and operational bottlenecks contributed to unusually inelastic credit supply, and that technology-based lenders, likely less constrained by these frictions, gained market share. Rising forbearance and default risk did not significantly affect rates on "plain-vanilla" conforming mortgages, but it did lead to higher spreads on mortgages without government guarantees and loans to the riskiest borrowers. Mortgage-backed securities purchases by the Federal Reserve also supported the flow of credit in the conforming segment. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage; Credit; Financial intermediation; Fintech; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-48&r= |
| By: | Frohm, Erik |
| Abstract: | Dominant currency pricing (DCP) weakens the demand-side effects of exchange rate changes on exports (Gopinath et al., 2020). However, adjustment in the export sector can still occur through other supply-side channels. With bilateral trade data at the HS2-product level, panel fixed-effects regressions and an instrumental variables (IV) approach, this paper presents several novel findings: (1), a depreciation of an exporter’s currency against the US-dollar increases total export volumes between non-US countries, whereas bilateral exchange rates matter very little. (2), there is no statistically significant increase in average exports per firm (the intensive margin), while the aggregate export response is mainly driven by an increase in the number of exporting firms (the extensive margin). (3), there is substantial heterogeneity in the export response to exchange rates against dominant currencies. Market concentration, approximated by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), reduces the response of both the extensive and intensive margins to the US-dollar exchange rate. These results highlight an “export supply channel” of exchange rates in a world with dominant currencies, deepen our understanding of aggregate export adjustment and further underline the heterogeneous export response in different sectors to exchange rate changes. JEL Classification: F14, F31, F41 |
| Keywords: | dominant currencies, exchange rates, export heterogeneity, extensive margins of trade, intensive margins of trade |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212580&r= |
| By: | McMillan, Melville (University of Alberta, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Since being introduced in 1972, taxable capital gains in Canada have been based on partial inclusion of nominal capital gains (i.e., the difference between sale and purchase prices). The inclusion rates have varied between 50 and 75 percent but have been 50 percent since 2000. Recently, there has been discussion of increasing capital gains taxes by increasing the inclusion rate (back to) 75 percent. In this paper, I argue that the capital gains tax is a poorly designed and inequitable tax and so, rather than make another ad hoc adjustment to the inclusion rate, a superior option is to reform capital gains taxation by indexing for inflation so as to measure real capital gains (i.e., the increase in purchasing power that is realized). The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index and the index of consumer prices are used to determine 40 and 50 year sequences of the differences between real and nominal measures of capital gains under both 50 and 75 percent inclusion rates for an index asset held for 20, 10 and 5 years. The work demonstrates that taxable capital gains are over and under assessed considerably relative to real capital gains. For example, over the period 1996 to 2020, differences between the taxable capital gains under a 75 percent inclusion rate and real gains would have been about 20 percent for a 10-year hold and about 33 percent for a 5 year hold. The results demonstrate the varying disparities between real gains and those under partial inclusion. Such disparities imply wide differences in effective tax rates and so inequities among investors, over time and with other taxpayers. This evidence argues persuasively that Canada’s capital gains taxation should abandon partial inclusion and turn to serious reform by indexing for inflation. |
| Keywords: | capital gains tax; inclusion rate; inflation; nominal versus real; indexing |
| JEL: | E62 H20 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2021_006&r= |
| By: | Lia Q. Flores (School of Economics and Management, University of Porto); Miguel A. Fonseca (Department of Economics, University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | Psychologists have long identified the tendency of humans to overestimate their skill relative to their peers (overplacement). We investigate whether this phenomenon is exacerbated by group affiliation: social identity theory predicts people evaluate in-group members more positively than out-group members, and we hypothesized that this differential treatment may result in greater overplacement when interacting with an out-group member. We tested this hypothesis with 301 US voters affiliated with either the Republican or Democratic party in the run-up to the 2020 Presidential election, a time when political identities were salient and highly polarized. We found there is a higher tendency for overplacement when faced with an out-group opponent than with an in-group opponent. Decomposition analysis suggests this difference is due to underestimating the opponent, as opposed to overestimating one's own performance to a higher degree. Moreover, any tendency to incur in overplacement is mitigated when faced with an opponent with the same political-identity relative to one with a neutral one. While group affiliation biases initial priors, such effect is unchanged when participants are asked to update their beliefs. |
| Keywords: | overconfidence, belief updating, motivated beliefs, overplacement, social identity, political affiliation, competition |
| JEL: | D18 D91 Z1 C9 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2103&r= |
| By: | Mihai Stoicescu (Aurel Vlaicu University, Arad, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The 21st century will be a religious one or not. The revolutions in the former communist bloc seemed to turn the world into churches and set the tone for bringing religion back to the forefront. A rediscovery of the values of the Christian faith will produce a pure and true religion. One of these values is putting hands. Both Jesus Christ and the apostles were healed, "poured out" the Holy Spirit upon the converts, and consecrated men to the ministry by laying on of hands. |
| Keywords: | ethic, morality, values, miracles, laying hands, Roman-Catholic, Orthodox, Protestantism |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01248&r= |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha (World Bank); El Lahga, Abdel Rahmen (University of Tunis); Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Tunisia's GDP contracted by -8.8 percent in 2020, the worst performance since gaining independence in 1956. The poverty rate in Tunisia could reach at least 20.9, the same level recorded in 2010, and as high as 25 percent according to various estimates (Kokas et al., 2020); while inequality could reach an unprecedented Gini level of 0.41. While Tunisia has faced difficult political, economic and social challenges—in addition to the global COVID-19 pandemic—Tunisia's performance was below peer countries even during periods of strong growth. All economic sectors in Tunisia have declined, except agriculture, and structural transformation has been weak. Nearly 68 percent of workers are employed in sectors with the lowest productivity. Youth and women have been especially left behind as job growth has not kept pace with university graduates and growth in the working-age population: early 32 percent of Tunisian youth were "Not in Education, Employment, or Training" (NEET), and female labor force participation (FLFP) of 29 percent remains among the lowest in the world. Clearly, key labor market challenges in terms of poor job creation, and low quality of job have not seen much progress since the Arab Revolution. This paper aims to shed light on the main obstacles to creating sufficient employment and addressing labor market distortions in Tunisia, based on several data sources, including latest rounds of labor force surveys, and helps recognize issues that require immediate policy attention in the labor market in Tunisia. |
| Keywords: | labor markets, employment, Tunisia |
| JEL: | J31 F16 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14563&r= |
| By: | Sreekumaran Nair, Sree Lekshmi; Aston, John; Kozlovski, Eugene |
| Abstract: | The study's main aim is to examine the impact of organisational culture on occupational stress by comparing the IT sectors in India and the UK. The paper adopts the application of Denison’s model for studying the organisational culture, whereas role conflict, role ambiguity, role overload and role stress are considered to discuss occupational stress. Through snowball, convenience, purposive and quota sampling techniques, 62 respondents (31 from India and 31 from the UK) were targeted to attain a qualitative perspective through a semi-structured questionnaire. Results showed that there is an impact of organisational culture on occupational stress. Moreover, the impact is mainly evident in the Indian IT sector than the UK IT sector. Moreover, considering the impact of organisational culture on occupational stress, overall employees experience occupational stress, role overload, role conflict, role ambiguity and role stress. In contrasting economies, Indian IT sector employee’s experience role conflict, role overload, role ambiguity and role stress, whereas UK IT sector employees’ experience role ambiguity. |
| Keywords: | Organisational culture, occupational stress, gender, contrasting economies, IT workforce, SMEs |
| JEL: | L20 L29 M10 M15 |
| Date: | 2021–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109014&r= |
| By: | Dean Spears (University of Texas at Austin [Austin], Indian Statistical Institute [New Delhi], IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics, IFFS - Institute for Futures Studies); Stéphane Zuber (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Utilitarianism is the most prominent family of social welfare functions. We present three new axiomatic characterizations of utilitarian (that is, additively separable) social welfare functions in a setting where there is risk over both population size and the welfares of individuals. First, we show that, given uncontroversial basic axioms, Blackorby et al.'s (1998) Expected Critical-Level Generalized Utilitarianism (ECLGU) is equivalent to a new axiom holding that it is better to allocate higher utility-conditional-on-existence to possible people who have a higher probability of existence. The other two novel characterizations extend classic axiomatizations of utilitarianism from settings with either social risk or variable-population, considered alone. By considering both social risk and variable population together, we clarify the fundamental normative considerations underlying utilitarian policy evaluation. |
| Keywords: | Social risk,population ethics,utilitarianism,expected critical-level generalized utilitarianism,prioritarianism |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03287583&r= |
| By: | T. Kharytonova; V. Nosik; Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University); V. Mykhailov; M. Kurilo |
| Abstract: | There is a strong bonding of categories when we are to consider problems connected with land. The constant development of social relations brings the necessity to notice what is vital for the legislation to follow those changes. In that order, there is unambiguity in resolving land disputes, particularly about subsoil use. The spatial use of land rights raises a question of clear legislative criteria for their application. For us, it refers to the consideration of the "upper" and "lower" limits of rights distribution. Accordingly, this article investigates the rules of legislation for land and subsoil use. The object of the study is legal problems arising from social relations regarding land and subsoil use. As for the methodology, the following methods were used: analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, abstraction, generalization, historical and legal methods, formal-legal (dogmatic) method, comparative-legal and sociological-legal methods, legal modeling, and critical-legal method. It has been concluded that domestic legal doctrine includes two approaches to the distribution of owner's rights for the underground space. Additionally, there is a problem of legal demarcation between land and subsoil use. As a result of the study, we offer some ways to solve this issue. |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03284994&r= |
| By: | Etienne Redor (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we re-question the value of board independence for shareholders. Instead of studying the relationship between the proportion of independent directors and firm performance (as in previous studies), we analyse how shareholders perceive board independence by examining the relations between director independence and shareholder satisfaction as measured by shareholder voting outcomes in annual director elections. This approach allows us to overcome concerns about omitted firm-level characteristics and to propose a finer analysis of the value of board independence/affiliation for shareholders. We show (1) that independent and inside directors receive significantly more, and affiliated directors significantly fewer, 'for' votes in director elections than other board members, (2) that not all inside and affiliated directors hold the same value for shareholders and (3) that the leadership structure matters to shareholders. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03290640&r= |
| By: | Jude Darmanin |
| Abstract: | Consumer price inflation in Malta is officially measured through the Retail Price Index (RPI). The RPI calculates the price change of a basket of goods and services, which is derived from average expenditure shares obtained through the Household Budgetary Survey (HBS). In practice, the representation of an “average†household is skewed towards high income households, whose expenditure makes up a relatively larger share of total consumer spending. As a result, the RPI might not always accurately measure the inflation rate faced by low income households, whose basket differs from the overall average for all households. This study uses HBS data to calculate an estimated inflation rate for household in the bottom income quartile. The results suggest that between 2010 and 2020 these households experienced some periods of higher inflation than suggested by the official rate. This was particularly so during periods of rising food and energy prices in the first half of the sample period. A similar result was found for retired household, who form a large subset of low income household. Despite this, an analysis of the minimum wage and the minimum pension suggests that benefits have maintained their purchasing power since 2010, even when accounting for higher inflation. In part, this was due to ad hoc government allowances on top of automatic annual increments. |
| JEL: | E30 E31 I31 I38 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mlt:ppaper:0121&r= |
| By: | Kit Baum (Boston College; DIW Berlin; CESIS); Miguel Henry (Greylock McKinnon Associates) |
| Abstract: | In an extension of the standard spatial autoregressive (SAR) model, Aquaro, Bailey and Pesaran (ABP; 2021, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2792) introduced a SAR panel model that allows one to produce heterogeneous point estimates for each spatial unit. Their methodology has been implemented as the Stata routine hetsar (Belotti, 2021, Statistical Sofware Components S458926). As the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved in the U.S. since its first outbreak in February 2020 with following resurgences of multiple widespread and severe waves of the pandemic, the level of interactions between geographic units (for example, states and counties) has differed greatly over time in terms of the prevalence of the disease. Applying ABP’s HETSAR model to 2020 and 2021 COVID-19 data outcomes (confirmed case and death rates) at the state level, we extend our previous spatial econometric analysis (Baum and Henry, 2020, Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1009) on socioeconomic and demographic factors influencing the spatial spread of COVID-19 confirmed case and death rates in the U.S. |
| Date: | 2021–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:scon21:34&r= |
| By: | Spackman, Michael |
| Abstract: | There has been a forty-year divide in economics on the relevance to public funding of the equity premium (in particular, today, the consumption CAPM). The costs and benefits of public spending are often correlated with income, but conventional neoclassical analysis, applied by many governments, suggests that the cost of this systematic risk in publicly funded activities is usually trivial. On the other hand, it is often asserted that equity market premiums, which are very much higher than would be estimated from neoclassical analysis (the equity premium ‘puzzle’), should apply also to public funding. This paper, which aims largely to help government administrations, assembles a picture of the evolving research on and understanding of the premium. Public funding does incur social costs arising from the associated tax burden. There is, however, no evidence to support assertions that the equity risk premium anomaly is relevant to public funding. In any case, the cost of systematic risk in the benefits of public funding does not fall as an annual percentage rate to financiers, but as an absolute cost to public service beneficiaries. |
| Keywords: | climate change legislation; climate policy; carbon leakage; pollution havens; production emissions; consumption emissions; Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy |
| JEL: | N0 E6 |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111488&r= |
| By: | Andrés O. Dávila; Manuel Fernández; Hernando Zuleta |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the upsurge of natural resources income from the commodity price boom of the 2000s on the functional distribution of income. To do so, we build a general equilibrium model of Dutch disease that characterizes how natural resource windfalls affect equilibrium factor shares. The theory suggests that the response of factor shares to exogenous changes in commodity prices depends on the relative intensity of factors in the tradable and natural resource sectors. We construct estimates of income shares accruing to raw labor, human capital, physical capital, and natural resources, and quantify the effect of the resource boom on factor shares. For identification, we use a two-way fixed effects strategy and a differential exposure design to instrument commodity prices. We find that a natural resource boom negatively impacts the total labor, human capital, and physical capital shares, while the raw labor share remains unchanged. Our estimates suggest that the natural resource boom explains nearly 25.7 percent of the global decline of the total labor share during the 2000s. We also find a redistribution effect within labor income that indicates that the fall of the labor share was unevenly distributed against human capital. |
| Keywords: | Labor Share, Factor Income Shares, Natural Resource Boom, Commodity Price Boom, Dutch Disease, Human Capital. |
| JEL: | D33 F14 J31 O13 |
| Date: | 2021–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019427&r= |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson |
| Abstract: | Using US Census Household Pulse Survey data for the period April 2020 to June 2021 we track the evolution of the mental health of nearly 2.3 million Americans during the COVID pandemic. We find anxiety, depression and worry peaked in November 2020, coinciding with the Presidential election. The taking of prescription drugs for mental health conditions peaked two weeks later in December 2020. Mental health improved subsequently such that by April 2021 it was better than it had been a year previously. The probability of having been diagnosed with COVID did not rise significantly in the first half of 2021 but COVID infection rates were higher among the young than the old. COVID diagnoses were significantly lower in States that had voted for Biden in the Presidential Election. The probability of vaccination rose with age, was considerably higher in Biden states, and rose precipitously over the period among the young and old. Anxiety was higher among people in Biden states, whether they had been diagnosed or not, and whether they were vaccinated or not. The association between anxiety and depression and having had COVID was not significant in Biden or Trump states but being vaccinated was associated with lower anxiety and depression, with the effect being larger in Biden states. Whilst being in paid work was associated with lower anxiety, worry and depression and was associated with higher vaccination rates, it also increased the probability of having had COVID. |
| JEL: | I1 I3 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29040&r= |
| By: | Nieuwenhuis, Jaap (Zhejiang University); Best, Matt (University of Colorado Denver); Vogel, Matt (University at Albany); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology); Branje, Susan (Utrecht University); Meeus, Wim (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | An extensive body of research has documented the deleterious effects of community violence on adolescent development and behavior. Much of this research focuses on how exposure violence structures social interaction, and, ultimately, how it motivates youth to engage in troublesome behavior. This study builds upon this body of research to demonstrate how exposure to community violence strains relationships between adolescents and their caregivers, resulting in higher levels of interpersonal conflict. Drawing on five waves of longitudinal panel data (n=778; observations=3,458; 55% female), combined with police records of violent crime in Utrecht, the Netherlands, a hybrid tobit regression documents how exposure to local and nearby violence affects child-parent conflict. The results indicate that youth who experience high levels of neighborhood violence report higher levels of conflict with parents than youth with low exposure to neighborhood violence. These results are consistent across different levels of neighborhood aggregation. |
| Keywords: | adolescent development, child-parent conflict, community violence, longitudinal panel |
| JEL: | I30 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14587&r= |
| By: | Benjamin Cabanes (IHEIE - Institut des Hautes Etudes pour l’Innovation et l’Entrepreneuriat (IHEIE) - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | Les experts scientifiques et techniques ont un rôle important dans les stratégies d'innovation des entreprises industrielles. Cependant, ce rôle peut s'avérer différent selon le type de management. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03254530&r= |
| By: | Julián Roa Rozo |
| Abstract: | En este estudio se estiman los efectos de las políticas monetarias no convencionales realizadas por Estados Unidos, la Zona Euro, Reino Unido y Japón (países avanzados) en las economías de México, Brasil, Colombia, Chile y Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de proyección global con tasas de interés sombra. Se encuentra que los spillovers de nivel de la política monetaria son pequeños y los más relevantes para Latinoamérica son los provenientes de Estados Unidos. También se encuentra que los spillovers de volatilidad de las políticas monetarias no convencionales de los países avanzados son pequeños. Los ejercicios de descomposición histórica muestran que la variable más afectada por los spillovers fue la inflación. Finalmente, se simularon escenarios contrafactuales en ausencia de políticas monetarias no convencionales por parte de los países avanzados en donde se encontraron pérdidas cercanas al 0.5 % del PIB en los países latinoamericanos en 2014T4, y una inflación menor en cerca de 1.5 %. Lo anterior muestra el alto costo de no implementar estas políticas y es de particular relevancia para la crisis del COVID-19. |
| Keywords: | Políticas monetarias no convencionales, economías emergentes, modelo de proyección global, tasas de interés sombra, límite inferior efectivo. |
| JEL: | E37 E47 E58 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019424&r= |
| By: | Kenneth Gillingham; Pei Huang |
| Abstract: | This study examines the uneven effects of air pollution from maritime ports on physical and mental health across racial groups. We exploit quasi-random variation in vessels in port from weather events far out in the ocean to estimate how port traffic influences air pollution and human health. We find that one additional vessel in a port over a year leads to 3.0 hospital visits per thousand Black residents within 25 miles of the port and only 1.0 per thousand for whites. We assess a port-related environmental regulation and show that the policy can help alleviate racial inequalities in health outcomes. |
| JEL: | D63 I14 Q51 Q53 Q58 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29108&r= |
| By: | Fauquet-Alekhine, Philippe; Bauer, Martin W.; Lahlou, Saadi |
| Abstract: | Subjective Evidence-Based Ethnography (SEBE) is a family of methods developed in digital ethnography for investigation in social science based on subjective audio–video recordings using first-person perspective. Recordings are used for self-confrontation (collect subjective experience, discussion of findings and final interpretation). Several studies applying SEBE methods mentioned “introspection” as a process occurring during self-confrontation and discussed it without providing evidence of its occurrence. This article aimed at clarifying introspection and its occurrence in SEBE. After a literature review addressing introspection, the process of introspection in SEBE was analyzed, depicted and illustrated by a case study. Conditions for introspection to occur in SEBE and the related mechanisms were proposed: it was found that indirect introspection could actually occur but not frequently and could go unnoticed without lessening the quality of the analysis. A refined analysis of introspection during or after the interviews was not identified as an added-value for the activity analysis. |
| Keywords: | activity analysis; cognition; digital ethnography; introspection; memory; self |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108417&r= |
| By: | Laurent Faivre |
| Abstract: | Dans un contexte de taux d’intérêt durablement bas et de crise sanitaire, le marché de l’immobilier résidentiel français est resté résilient en 2020 : le nombre de ventes en France a atteint 1 024 000, en recul de 4 % par rapport au pic historique de 2019, mais très supérieur à la moyenne des 3 dernières années (999 000 ventes). Dans le même temps l’indice INSEE des prix dans l’ancien a continué de progresser de 6,4 % en métropole, de manière uniforme entre la Province et l’Île-de-France, malgré le léger recul observé à Paris au quatrième trimestre (-0,1 %). Dans cet environnement, la production annuelle de crédits à l’habitat s’est élevée à 252,4 milliards en 2020, soit une hausse de 2,4 % par rapport à 2019 ; par ailleurs, si elle décélère légèrement depuis son pic de mai 2020, atteignant 242 milliards en mars 2021 sur 12 mois, la production de crédits reste très nettement au-dessus de sa moyenne annuelle depuis fin 2003 (156,7 milliards). Dans le même temps, les encours de crédits à l’habitat ont enregistré une croissance de 5,4 % sur l’année, tandis que les autres crédits aux particulier ont enregistré un repli de 0,5 %. |
| Keywords: | crédits à l’habitat des particuliers, prêt moyen, durée moyenne, loan to value, taux d’effort, encours douteux et provisions, coût du risque |
| JEL: | G21 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:analys:124&r= |
| By: | Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ekrame Boubtane (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Tribune parue dans Le Monde Idées, mercredi 6 novembre 2019 |
| Date: | 2019–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03274311&r= |
| By: | Chaoran Cui; Xiaojie Li; Juan Du; Chunyun Zhang; Xiushan Nie; Meng Wang; Yilong Yin |
| Abstract: | Predicting the future price trends of stocks is a challenging yet intriguing problem given its critical role to help investors make profitable decisions. In this paper, we present a collaborative temporal-relational modeling framework for end-to-end stock trend prediction. The temporal dynamics of stocks is firstly captured with an attention-based recurrent neural network. Then, different from existing studies relying on the pairwise correlations between stocks, we argue that stocks are naturally connected as a collective group, and introduce the hypergraph structures to jointly characterize the stock group-wise relationships of industry-belonging and fund-holding. A novel hypergraph tri-attention network (HGTAN) is proposed to augment the hypergraph convolutional networks with a hierarchical organization of intra-hyperedge, inter-hyperedge, and inter-hypergraph attention modules. In this manner, HGTAN adaptively determines the importance of nodes, hyperedges, and hypergraphs during the information propagation among stocks, so that the potential synergies between stock movements can be fully exploited. Extensive experiments on real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Also, the results of investment simulation show that our approach can achieve a more desirable risk-adjusted return. The data and codes of our work have been released at https://github.com/lixiaojieff/HGTAN. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14033&r= |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the relationship between governance and human development in Africa during the period 2010-2019 taking into account the existence of spatial dependence and controlling the endogeneity problem through a Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). The exploratory spatial data analysis reveals the existence of spatial dependence of human development and governance quality. Our empirical findings support that in Africa, “good fences make good neighbours†or proximity matters in the distribution of human development. Implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Governance, human development, Africa |
| JEL: | D31 I10 I32 K40 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/051&r= |
| By: | Ek, Simon (Department of Economics, Uppsala University, and); Hammarstedt, Mats (Department of Economics and Statistics, Linnaeus University, and); Skedinger, Per (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | We study the causal effects of previous experience and language skills when newly arrived refugees in Sweden apply for job openings by means of a field experiment. Applications were sent from randomly assigned fictitious Syrian refugees with experience in jobs with low skill requirements and completed language training in Swedish to employers advertising low-skilled job vacancies. We find no evidence of sizeable effects from previous experience or completed language classes on the probability of receiving callback from employers. However, female applicants were more likely than males to receive a positive response. We conclude that previous experience and completed language training seem to provide at best a small positive signaling value when refugees apply for low-skilled jobs through formal channels. |
| Keywords: | Integration of immigrants; Language skills; Job mobility |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1398&r= |
| By: | Serafica, Ramonette B.; Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Baje, Lora Kryz C.; Orbeta, Aniceto C. Jr. |
| Abstract: | The landscape of life and work, once shaped by the advancements in the field of information and communications technology is being disrupted once again due to the ongoing pandemic. As people adjust their attitudes towards risks and firms adjust their losses, platform work/online work, or work that is delivered and transacted online, is likely to become part of the new normal. This paper looks into some stylized patterns in online work in the Philippines within the bigger context of the Asian experience. This highlights some of the challenges that pertain to skills and social protection and recommends ways to address these challenges. <p>Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Asia, social protection, Coronavirus Disease 2019, Online work, platform work, new normal |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-29&r= |
| By: | Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia |
| Abstract: | The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has interrupted the recovery in Germany. GDP is set to decline in the first quarter of this year, after stagnating in the previous quarter. However, with the vaccination campaign progressing, the economic burden of the pandemic will ease and the recovery will continue at a rapid pace. Unlike last year, the economic losses are currently much more concentrated on consumer-related service industries and retail trade. Even though the negative impact on private consumer spending is currently even more severe than at the beginning of the pandemic, the overall economic impact will be much smaller. The main reason is that the export business continues to recover. Moreover, with sustained relief in sight for many companies due to the availability of effective vaccines, there will be no major decline in investment. Overall, GDP is expected to pick up strongly with growth rates of 3.7 percent this year and 4.8 percent next year, following the decline of 4.9 per cent in 2020. The recovery at the labor market will take more time. On average, employment is not yet expected to be higher in 2021 than in 2020; it will only pick up noticeably in 2022. Inflation is expected to rise significantly above 2 percent this year. However, temporary factors will contribute significantly to this increase and therefore the inflation rate is expected to decline again in 2022. Finally, the pandemic is also leaving its mark on public budgets. Due to the pandemic-related additional expenditures and revenue shortfalls, the budget deficit this year will once again be well above 4 percent relative to GDP. In 2022, the deficit will probably decline significantly to 1.3 per cent. The debt level will then be just under 70 per cent again. |
| Keywords: | business cycle forecast,stabilization policy,leading indicators,outlook,Business Cycle Germany,Fiscal Policy & National Budgets,Labor Market |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:77&r= |
| By: | Isaksen, Elisabeth; Johansen, Bjørn G. |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that differentiating driving costs by time of day and vehicle type help improve urban air quality, lower driving, and induce adoption of electric vehicles. By taking advantage of a congestion charge that imposed spatial and temporal variation in the cost of driving a conventional vehicle, we find that economic incentives lower traffic and concentrations of NO2. Exploiting a novel dataset on car ownership, we find that households exposed to congestion charging on their way to work were more likely to adopt an electric vehicle. We document strong heterogeneous patterns of electric vehicle adoption along several socioeconomic dimensions, including household type, income, age, education, work distance and public transit quality. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; electric vehicles; transportation policies; congestion charging; Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy; 267942; 302059; 295789 |
| JEL: | C33 H23 Q53 Q55 Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2021–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111493&r= |
| By: | Khalifa, Sherin; Petri, Svetlana; Henning, Christian H. C. A. |
| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of a new cross-country panel data from Africa and the Middle East for the time period between 1981 and 2015, we show that reductions in per capita income growth rate or domestic food production induced by climate variation significantly increase the probability of civil conflict. A 10% reduction in economic growth or domestic food production leads to a 1.25% and 1.59% increase in the likelihood of civil conflict, respectively. Furthermore, we identify a direct link of climate on the incidence of civil conflict. Additionally, the level of democracy and good governance are good control variables. Regarding the Syrian conflict, when considering 2010 data, the increase in temperature growth explains around 30% of falling income growth as well as 85% of the shrinking food production index and in this way contributed to the onset of war. We explain the probability of ongoing conflict by 43-56%. The two strongest factors explaining the conflict are lagged conflicts and economic development. Adequate economic policies that are able to accelerate economic development, play a role in peace, and avoiding new conflicts. |
| Keywords: | Climate variation,economic growth rate,food production index,civil war |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202001&r= |
| By: | Michalis Drouvelis; Graeme Pearce |
| Abstract: | Standard economic theory suggests that the decision to lie requires careful weighting of the associated economic costs and benefits, raising the question of whether intelligence matters for misbehaviour. Using the die roll paradigm, we compare behaviour between individuals who score either low or high on a Raven test when lying only benefits the subject who lies (Selfish treatment) or a charitable cause (Charity treatment). We find that high Raven individuals are honest in the Selfish treatment; however, their aversion to lying vanishes in the Charity treatment. Our results have important implications for the rapidly growing lying literature, indicating that intelligence is a key characteristic of misbehaviour. |
| Keywords: | intelligence levels, die roll paradigm, honesty |
| JEL: | C90 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9223&r= |
| By: | Lise Arena (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019)); Anthony Hussenot (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03290300&r= |
| By: | Sania Wadud; Robert D. Durand; Marc Gronwald |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of financialisation of futures markets has on the relationship between crude oil futures and equities by using the VAR-DCC-GARCH model. Specifically, by accounting for the systematic patterns of commodity price volatility, namely, seasonality and maturity effects for the pre-financialisation (1993-2003) and post-financialisation (2004-2019) period. While speculation that reflects non-commercial investors’ activity is found to have a negative impact on crude oil futures’ volatility before the financialisation period, open interest as a measure of liquidity has a negative effect after 2004. The finding indicates weakening seasonality in crude oil futures and diminishing Samuelson maturity effect i.e. volatility of the contract increases as it nears to expiration since financialisation. This confirms the importance of accounting for volatility dynamics while contributing to financialisation debate. |
| Keywords: | financialisation, volatility dynamics, Samuelson hypothesis, correlation, seasonality |
| JEL: | C32 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9202&r= |
| By: | Želinský, Tomáš |
| Abstract: | This paper utilizes two measures of subjective well-being to test a hypothesis that a marginal increase in subjective well-being associated with a marginal increase in income is larger for poorer than for richer populations. This hypothesis is examined in the setting of Slovak Roma, who are poor in comparison to the non-Roma population. The results suggest that the correlation between income and satisfaction is greater for the lower-income group (the Roma) than for the higher-income group (majority population). Further, the correlation between income and emotional well-being does not differ between the two groups. |
| Keywords: | Satisfaction,Emotional well-being,Roma,Income,Poverty |
| JEL: | I31 J15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:898&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The new administration’s policies have put the U.S. economy on a strong footing. An effective vaccine rollout has put the number of new COVID-19 cases on a firmly downward path. At the same time, unprecedented fiscal support is quickly restoring the economy back to full employment and generating positive outward spillovers to the world economy. These efforts have not been costless: the path for public debt is far higher; the current account deficit has grown; and very accommodative financial conditions have led to increased corporate and nonbank leverage and rising valuations across a range of assets. The pandemic continues to weigh heavily on those at the lower end of the income distribution, exposing longstanding inequities in access to quality healthcare and education (many of which have an important gender and racial dimension). |
| Date: | 2021–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/162&r= |
| By: | Promit Kanti Chaudhuri (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a differentiated product economy is modeled where firms strategically set up autonomous rival divisions and the divisions play the quantity competition game `a la Cournot or by means of monopolistic competition, where the divisions are unaware of the impact of their output either on the firm's total output or on the total industry output. This case of divisions being unaware of the impact of their outputs on the firm's aggregate output or on the industry total output is termed as `Strategic Inattention'. The incentive to divisionalize still remains within the firms even in the case of the `Strategic Inattention', but the incentive is lower than the case of normal Cournot competition. Next in a duopoly, the firms play a three stage game. In the first stage, the firms decide whether to let their divisions utilize or ignore the information on the impact of their individual output on the firm's total output or industry total output. In the second stage the firms strategically decide on the number of divisions and in the final stage the divisions compete against each other in terms of quantity. It is seen that one firm deciding to be inattentive to the information available and the other firm using that information, is the equilibrium outcome. Thus inattentive and attentive firms coexist in a Subgam Perfect Nash Equilibrium. This result is in sharp contrast to the findings of Cellini et al. (2020). |
| Keywords: | Divisionalization, information, Monopolistic competition, Oligopoly, Strategic interaction |
| JEL: | D43 L11 L13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-020&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Guinea-Bissau is a fragile state with considerable needs to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and address developmental challenges. After an estimated 1.4 percent of GDP contraction in 2020, a modest recovery of about 3.3 percent is projected for 2021 on the back of higher cashew exports, the gradual lifting of COVID containment measures and a more stable political situation. The outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty. An RCF disbursement of SDR 14.2 million (50 percent of quota) was approved in January to provide urgent financing (35 percent of the external gap in 2021) to support critical spending in health and catalyze additional donor resources. The RCF followed two years of protracted political turmoil and delays in reforms, now undertaken by the new government. Public debt was assessed as sustainable in a forward-looking sense based on the authorities’ commitment to sound policies supported by strong donor engagement and a Fund program. Debt service relief under the CCRT has provided some fiscal space and the country’s participation in the DSSI should also help mobilize additional resources. After the 2021 budget approval within the statutory deadlines, significant and sustained reform efforts are required to meet the WAEMU 3 percent of GDP overall balance criteria by 2025 and bring public debt-to-GDP ratio within 70 percent by end-2026. |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/172&r= |
| By: | Gagliarducci, Stefano (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Tabellini, Marco (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | Ethnic religious organizations are often blamed for slowing down immigrants' assimilation in host societies. This paper offers the first systematic evidence on this topic by focusing on Italian Catholic churches in the US between 1890 and 1920, when four million Italians had moved to America, and anti-Catholic sentiments were widespread. Relying on newly collected data on the presence of Italian Catholic churches across counties over time, we implement a difference-in-differences design. We find that Italian churches reduced the social assimilation of Italian immigrants, lowering intermarriage, residential integration, and naturalization rates. We provide evidence that both stronger coordination within the Italian community and negative stereotyping among natives can explain these effects. Yet, Italian churches had ambiguous effects on immigrants' economic outcomes, and increased literacy and ability to speak English among Italian children. |
| Keywords: | immigration, assimilation, religious organizations |
| JEL: | J15 N31 Z12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14567&r= |
| By: | Josué Diwambuena (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy); Jean-Paul K. Tsasa (Department of Economics, Université du Québec, Montreal) |
| Abstract: | This paper applies both linear and nonlinear structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models using two distinct identifications methods to disentangle the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks for a developing country. As an application, we use macroeconomic data for the Democratic Republic of Congo (Congo), one of the largest and least developed countries in the world with a rich history of domestic political instability and high macroeconomic volatility. Our measure of uncertainty is the world uncertainty index for the Congo recently developed by Ahir et al. (2018) for a panel of developed and developing countries. Using a standard SVAR model with sign restrictions, we provide evidence that an unexpected increase in uncertainty triggers contractions in GDP and investment on impact in the Congo. We show that uncertainty shocks are among the greatest drivers of economic fluctuations. Our results are robust across alternative linear and nonlinear SVAR specifications using the Cholesky decomposition. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty; SVAR; Sign restriction; Congo. |
| JEL: | C30 D80 E32 O40 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps87&r= |
| By: | Kennedy, Gerard (Central Bank of Ireland); Killeen, Neill (Central Bank of Ireland); Skouralis, Alexandros (Central Bank of Ireland); Velasco, Sofia (Central Bank of Ireland); Wosser, Michael (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This Note documents developments in the commercial real estate (CRE) market in Ireland since the onset of the COVID-19 shock as well as examining the factors determining the outlook. The CRE market is important to monitor from a financial stability perspective owing to its size and systemic interlinkages to both the real economy and the wider financial system. We show that the CRE market in Ireland has experienced a downward adjustment in valuations since the onset of the COVID-19 shock with the retail sector particularly affected. We highlight that components of the CRE market such as the retail and office sectors are particularly vulnerable to both near-term and structural implications of the COVID-19 shock such as the rise of online shopping and increased working from home practices. We combine a range of analytical approaches including forecast modelling techniques, the extension of the growth-at-risk framework to CRE and scenario analysis to assess the potential downside risks to the CRE market in Ireland. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:4/fs/21&r= |
| By: | Marc Fleurbaey (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Zuber (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | How to evaluate and compare social prospects when there may be a risk on i) the actual allocation people will receive; ii) the existence of these future people; and iii) their preferences? This paper investigate this question that may arise when considering policies that endogenously affect future people, for instance climate policy. We show that there is no social ordering that meets minimal requirements of fairness, social rationality, and respect for people's ex ante preferences. We explore three ways to avoid this impossibility. First, if we drop the ex ante Pareto requirement, we can obtain fair ex post criteria that take an (arbitrary) expected utility of an equally-distributed equivalent level of well-being. Second, if the social ordering is not an expected utility, we can obtain fair ex ante criteria that assess uncertain individual prospects with a certainty-equivalent measure of well-being. Third, if we accept that interpersonal comparisons rely on VNM utility functions even in absence of risk, we can construct expected utility social orderings that satisfy of some version of Pareto ex ante. |
| Keywords: | Fairness,social risk,intergenerational equity |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03289160&r= |
| By: | Jumah, Adusei (Central University, Accra, Ghana); Somua-Wiafe, Ernest (Central University, Accra, Ghana); Apom, Barnabas (Researchlime Ltd, Accra, Ghana) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a generalized estimating equations approach to investigate the willingness of street hawkers in Accra to exit their trade when offered viable alternatives. We observe a direct relationship between willingness to exit hawking and age. Willingness to exit hawking declines over increasing experience. Hawkers who have encountered arrest are less likely to exit. Also, hawkers who received financial assistance to facilitate their business are less likely to exit. Plus, monthly savings from hawking may indirectly influence a rejection of the offer to start an alternative trade. Finally, the willingness to quit hawking is not significantly influenced by gender, sales revenue, and the road description in the model. The results of the analysis could help improve the success of future intervention programmes. |
| Keywords: | Street hawking, GEE, logit, willingness to exit |
| JEL: | C35 E26 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihswps:34&r= |
| By: | Hamark, Jesper (Department of Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Turner, Russell (Department of Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | For nine decades, the Swedish State Railways (SJ) produced wage records containing all its permanent employees. SJ employed more people than any private employer in Sweden, and the records contain individual-level information across hundreds of occupations: full name, yearly wage, occupational status, year and date of birth, occupational status, time of employment at SJ, etc. This paper serves as a background to a project on wage distribution within SJ, with the aim of tracking the development of, on the one hand, occupational or class-based wage inequality and, on the other, gender-based wage inequality. In this paper, we present the source material in detail, discuss its strengths and weaknesses, and describe the methods used to develop and process the wage records into data. Special attention is given to the adoption and application of HISCLASS, the historical, international social class scheme. |
| Keywords: | Wage distribution; HISCLASS; relative wages; white-collar wages; gender wage gap; the Swedish State Railways; Statens Järnvägar |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J71 N83 N84 |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunhis:0028&r= |
| By: | Éric Gautier (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers endogenous selection models, in particular nonparametric ones. Estimating the unconditional law of the outcomes is possible when one uses instrumental variables. Using a selection equation which is additively separable in a one dimensional unobservable has the sometimes undesirable property of instrument monotonicity. We present models which allow for nonmonotonicity and are based on nonparametric random coefficients indices. We discuss their non parametric identification and apply these results to inference on nonlinear statistics such as the Gini index in surveys when the nonresponse is not missing at random. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03306234&r= |
| By: | Alvaro Mezza; Daniel R. Ringo; Kamila Sommer |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence that increased student loan debts, caused by rising tuitions, increase borrowers’ demand for additional consumer debt, while simultaneously restricting their ability to access it. The net effect of student loan debt on consumer borrowing varies by market, depending on whether the supply or demand channel dominates. In loosely underwritten credit markets, increased student loan debt causes borrowing to increase, while in tightly underwritten markets, increased student loan debt reduces the use of credit. These findings match predictions of a standard lifecycle model of household consumption and borrowing, augmented with a realistic student loan repayment contract. |
| Keywords: | Credit demand and supply; Rising tuition; Access to credit; Student loans; Consumption smoothing |
| JEL: | D15 I22 D14 D10 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-50&r= |
| By: | Francesco Vigliarolo (Catholic University of La Plata, National University of La Plata, University of Buenos Aires [Argentina]) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this article is to propose what can be called a law of ontological reason in economics as opposed to the law of supply and demand. To do this, it uses a phenomenological approach that interprets economics in terms of primary ideas. To this end, it's defined the ontological reason and the space in which it is built in order to introduce the concept of demand of rights and not of consumption. In this context, the relationship that underlies an ontological reason which presupposes a different behavior from that of the law of supply and demand is then described. According to this approach, it is claimed that the latter leads to structural problems. It subordinates the general identity of a country to the interests of individuals, as it focuses on maximizing personal utility that is unrelated to the creation of the rights of men and women living in a context that contains them in a relational way. |
| Keywords: | economics,ontology,phenomenology,demand for rights |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03298795&r= |
| By: | Reyes, Celia M.; Asis, Ronina D.; Arboneda, Arkin A.; Vargas, Anna Rita P. |
| Abstract: | Poverty simulations suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures implemented by the government to contain the spread of the virus will increase the number of poor in the country. As such, various social safety nets were implemented by both the national and local government agencies to help the affected individuals, families, and enterprises cope with the economic effects of COVID-19 and to smoothen their consumption particularly during the initial stages of the national lockdown, albeit temporarily. <p> Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | poverty, Philippines, COVID-19, social amelioration program |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-55&r= |
| By: | Dávila, Andrés O. (Universidad de los Andes); Fernandez Sierra, Manuel (Universidad de los Andes); Zuleta, Hernando (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the upsurge of natural resources income from the commodity price boom of the 2000s on the functional distribution of income. To do so, we build a general equilibrium model of Dutch disease that characterizes how natural resource windfalls affect equilibrium factor shares. The theory suggests that the response of factor shares to exogenous changes in commodity prices depends on the relative intensity in which factors are used in the tradable and natural resource sectors. We construct estimates of income shares accruing to raw labor, human capital, physical capital, and natural resources, and quantify the effect of the resource boom on factor shares. For identification, we use a two-way fixed effects strategy and a differential exposure design to instrument commodity prices. We find that a natural resource boom negatively impacts the total labor, human capital, and physical capital shares, while the raw labor share remains unchanged. Our estimates suggest that the natural resource boom explains nearly 25.7 percent of the global decline of the total labor share during the 2000s. We also find a redistribution effect within labor income that indicates that the fall of the labor share was unevenly distributed against human capital. |
| Keywords: | labor share, factor income shares, natural resource boom, commodity price boom, dutch disease, human capital |
| JEL: | D33 F14 J31 O13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14592&r= |
| By: | Joan Costa-i-Font; Sarah Fleche; Pagan Ricardo |
| Abstract: | Daylight Saving Time (DST) is currently implemented by more than seventy countries, yet we do not have a clear knowledge of how it affects individuals’ welfare. Using a regression discontinuity design combined with a differences-in-differences approach, we find that the Spring DST causes a significant decline in life satisfaction. By inducing a reallocation of time, the transition into DST deteriorates sleep and increases time stress, which in turn affects physical and emotional health. After performing a simple cost-benefit analysis, we find evidence suggestive that ending DST would exert a positive effect on welfare, namely the wellbeing costs associated with DST exceed its benefits. |
| Keywords: | Daylight Saving Time, wellbeing, health, sleep, time stress |
| JEL: | I18 K20 I31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9195&r= |
| By: | Jaydip Sen; Sidra Mehtab |
| Abstract: | Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11371&r= |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Flèche, Sarah (Aix-Marseille University); Pagan, Ricardo (University of Malaga) |
| Abstract: | Daylight Saving Time (DST) is currently implemented by more than seventy countries, yet we do not have a clear knowledge of how it affects individuals' welfare. Using a regression discontinuity design combined with a differences-in-differences approach, we find that the Spring DST causes a significant decline in life satisfaction. By inducing a reallocation of time, the transition into DST deteriorates sleep and increases time stress, which in turn affects physical and emotional health. After performing a simple cost-benefit analysis, we find evidence suggestive that ending DST would exert a positive effect on welfare, namely the wellbeing costs associated with DST exceed its benefits. |
| Keywords: | Daylight Saving Time, wellbeing, health, sleep, time stress |
| JEL: | I18 K2 I31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14570&r= |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | Increases in physical infrastructure spending would boost private-sector productivity in the coming decades, contributing to economic growth that could lower the budgetary cost of that spending. To study such increases, CBO examined two illustrative scenarios that would boost federal funding for a mix of types of physical infrastructure by $500 billion over 10 years. The effects of macroeconomic changes on the budget would depend on how additional infrastructure spending was financed and on the time period considered. |
| JEL: | E60 H40 H50 H60 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:57327&r= |
| By: | Schmidtke, Julia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Hetschko, Clemens (University of Leeds); Schöb, Ronnie (Free University of Berlin); Stephan, Gesine (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Eid, Michael (Freie Universität Berlin); Lawes, Mario (Freie Universität Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Using individual monthly panel data from December 2018 to December 2020, we estimate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and two lockdowns on the mental health and subjective well-being of German workers. Employing an event-study design using individual-specific fixed effects, we find that the first and the second wave of the pandemic reduced workers' mental health substantially. Momentary happiness and life satisfaction also decline in response to Covid-19, but to a smaller extent. We observe adapation in our study outcomes between waves of the pandemic. This applies to a lesser extent to indicators of well-being in certain areas of life, such as satisfaction with the job and with leisure, which are negatively affected, too. Women do not seem to suffer greater well-being losses than men. However, workers in the German short-time work scheme are particularly negatively affected. Our results imply that increased anxiety about the future and restricted personal freedoms are among the drivers of the well-being impact of the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, life satisfaction, depression, affective well-being, app-based survey data, German Job Search Panel |
| JEL: | I31 I19 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14638&r= |
| By: | Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna (UCL Institute of Education); Henderson, Morag (UCL Institute of Education); Shure, Nikki (University College London) |
| Abstract: | While it has been shown that university attendance is strongly predicted by parental education, we know very little about why some potential 'first in family' or first-generation students make it to university and others do not. This paper looks at the role of non-cognitive skills in the university participation of this disadvantaged group in England. We find that conditional on national, high-stakes exam scores and various measures of socioeconomic background, having higher levels of non-cognitive skills, specifically locus of control, academic self-concept, work ethic, and self-esteem, in adolescence is positively related to intergenerational educational mobility to university. Our results indicate that having higher non-cognitive skills helps potential first in family university students to compensate for their relative disadvantage, and they are especially crucial for boys. The most important channel of this relationship seems to be through educational attainment at the end of compulsory schooling. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic gaps, intergenerational educational mobility, higher education, non-cognitive skills |
| JEL: | I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14580&r= |
| By: | Oana Horhogea (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iasi, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic took us all by surprise, affecting all areas of activity at national and international level. This situation has forced us to change both our private and professional life. Depending on the specificity of the activity carried out by each employee, there were sectors of activity that continued their activity with physical presence, with employees going to work every day, but the vast majority had to adapt to the new conditions of activity. What happened on the labor market in this new situation? There were companies that temporarily suspended their activity and later had to close it, because they could no longer cover expenses during the crisis. There were many cases in which the employees' option was to give up their job, temporarily, with managers being put in a position to find solutions and manage them so as to get over these unwanted events. |
| Keywords: | management, benefits, pandemic, tools, team |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01252&r= |
| By: | Maximilian Konradt (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Beatrice Weder di Mauro (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva) |
| Abstract: | What is the effect of climate policies on inflation and economic activity? Answering this question is critical for central banks trying to achieve price stability. This paper studies the experience from existing carbon taxes in Canada and Europe, introduced over the last 30 years. Based on two separate empirical approaches, we find that carbon taxes do not have to be inflationary and may even have deflationary effects. In particular, our evidence suggests that the increase in energy prices was more than offset by a fall in the prices of services and other non-tradables. Our results are robust for Europe and Canada, as well as a number of different country groupings. At least in case of British Columbia, a contraction in household incomes and expenditures, in particular among the richer households, could explain the deflationary effect. |
| Keywords: | Carbon taxes; carbon pricing; inflation; monetary policy; climate change |
| JEL: | E31 E50 Q54 Q43 |
| Date: | 2021–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp17-2021&r= |
| By: | Egami, Hiroyuki; Mano, Yukichi; Matsumoto, Tomoya |
| Abstract: | People in developing economies face substantial income risks and use diverse strategies to mitigate the negative welfare impact. Rural households often send migrants to diversify income sources and depend on remittances to cope with income risks. To examine the risk-coping mechanism of urban migrants and their rural families against the aggregate shock due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyze the seven-round Bangladeshi household panel covering the period before and after the first implementation of COVID-19 lockdown policies. Our event study finds that urban migrants experienced more substantial income loss than their rural families and reduced but not ceased remittances to cope with the aggregate shock jointly. Notably, mobile money services allowed them to continue sending remittances even under the lockdown policies. |
| Keywords: | migrants, remittances, risk coping, aggregate shock, mobile money, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | O12 O15 F23 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-109&r= |
| By: | Patricia Pignier-Hondareyte (LIREM - Laboratoire de Recherche en Management (LIREM) - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Patricia Pignier Hondareyte |
| Abstract: | Digital pedagogical innovation can be achieved by the provision of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) applications, which claim to support pedagogical methods. In the field of higher education, particularly, this leads on the one hand to the training of the teaching staff in the use of the digital pedagogical applications, and on the other hand to the monitoring of the dedicated support services that ensure the development and maintenance of these tools. This research will focus on the relationship between teaching staff and support services and their respective activities. It will address the question about the implementation of digital pedagogical applications and collaboration of these two centers of expertise. The research will be based on an analysis of 28 in-depth interviews. It aims to enrich our understanding of the difficulties related to human resource management in the deployment of digital teaching tools to research professors and support services. |
| Abstract: | L'innovation pédagogique par le numérique consiste en la mise à disposition d'applications informatiques pour l'enseignement. On parle des TICE, ou Technologies de l'Information et de la Communication pour l'Enseignement. Ces TICE sont supposées accompagner et renforcer l'enseignement en mettant le numérique au service de la pédagogie. Dans l'enseignement supérieur, en particulier, ce type d'innovation conduit d'une part les enseignants-chercheurs à se former à l'utilisation des outils pédagogiques numériques et d'autre part les services supports dédiés à assurer le développement et la maintenance de ces outils. Cette recherche portera sur l'articulation des activités entre acteurs de l'enseignement et acteurs des services supports. La question de la collaboration de ces deux pôles de compétences sera alors abordée. La recherche s'appuiera sur l'analyse de 28 entretiens approfondis. Cette communication souhaite enrichir la compréhension des difficultés liées à la gestion des ressources humaines dans le déploiement des outils pédagogiques numériques auprès des enseignants-chercheurs et des services supports. |
| Keywords: | training,skill,profession,digital pedagogical tools,formation,compétence,métier,outils pédagogiques numériques |
| Date: | 2021–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03293771&r= |
| By: | Ademmer, Martin; Beckmann, Joscha; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia |
| Abstract: | The German economy is picking up speed again. After the resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic had interrupted the economic recovery in the winter half-year, GDP will expand at a fast pace in the further course of the year and exceed its pre-crisis level again. With the removal of the pandemic-related restrictions, activity will rebound, especially in those areas that were previously particularly burdened. Retail trade and contact-intensive services in particular are likely to benefit from the rebound in private household consumption. For the time being, however, the recovery will be delayed in the manufacturing industry. The strong global recovery has brought with it multi-layered supply bottlenecks that are noticeably hampering production in many firms. Despite the very good order situation, production in the manufacturing industry will therefore probably only gradually return to its recovery path in the second half of the year, provided that the supply bottlenecks then gradually ease. With the supply bottlenecks, price pressures have also increased, especially as economic momentum is high worldwide. Thus, prices for raw materials, intermediate goods and transport services have recently been on a broad upward trend. All in all, GDP is expected to grow by 3.9 percent this year and by 4.8 percent in 2022. Consumer prices will rise at a much faster rate of probably 2.6 percent this year and by around 2 percent in 2022. |
| Keywords: | Corona crisis,COVID19,Business Cycle Germany,Fiscal Policy & National Budgets,Labor Market |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:80&r= |
| By: | Giuseppe Ferro (ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC)); Tatyana Kovalenko (ETH Zurich); Didier Sornette (ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC); Swiss Finance Institute; Southern University of Science and Technology; Tokyo Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We propose a new parametrization of Quantum Decision Theory (QDT), based on Rank Dependent Utility Theory (RDU). Using experimental data made of choices between pairs of lotteries, we compare QDT with "classical" decision theories, RDU and Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). At the aggregate level, calibrating together all decisions performed by all subjects (representative agent approach), we find that CPT-based QDT outperforms, with the quantum models always improving their classical counterpart. At the individual level, adopting a hierarchical maximum likelihood estimation to avoid overfitting, we classify decision makers as either RDU, RDU-based QDT, CPT or CPT-based QDT. Our major findings are the following: the quantum attraction factor plays a key role in describing subjects’ behaviors; there is a considerable heterogeneity across subjects, at odds with the representative agent approach; RDU and RDU-based QDT describe a larger fraction of subjects than CPT and CPT-based QDT, again at odds with the conclusion using the representative agent approach; a temporal stability of asset integration attitudes is found for a good fraction of the subjects; another significant fraction of subjects may be using mixtures of mental models, which are elicited selectively depending on the nature of the presented choice alternatives. |
| Keywords: | choice under risk, quantum decision theory, rank-dependent utility theory, cumulative prospect theory |
| JEL: | A12 C44 D81 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2149&r= |
| By: | Matthew Hoops; Robert J. Kurtzman |
| Abstract: | Beginning in late February 2020, market liquidity for corporate bonds dried up and corporate bond credit spreads soared amid broad financial market dislocations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The causes of this liquidity dry-up and the spike in corporate bond spreads remain subjects of debate. |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-07-30-1&r= |
| By: | Nils Köbis (Center for Humans and Machines); Jean-François Bonnefon (UT1 - Université de Toulouse 1 Capitole); Iyad Rahwan (Center for Humans and Machines) |
| Abstract: | Machines powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) are now influencing the behavior of humans in ways that are both like and unlike the ways humans influence each other. In light of recent research showing that other humans can exert a strong corrupting influence on people's ethical behavior, worry emerges about the corrupting power of AI agents. To estimate the empirical validity of these fears, we review the available evidence from behavioral science, human-computer interaction, and AI research. We propose that the main social roles through which both humans and machines can influence ethical behavior are (a) role model, (b) advisor, (c) partner, and (d) delegate. When AI agents become influencers (role models or advisors), their corrupting power may not exceed (yet) the corrupting power of humans. However, AI agents acting as enablers of unethical behavior (partners or delegates) have many characteristics that may let people reap unethical benefits while feeling good about themselves, indicating good reasons for worry. Based on these insights, we outline a research agenda that aims at providing more behavioral insights for better AI oversight. |
| Keywords: | machine behavior,behavioral ethics,corruption,artificial intelligence |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03292360&r= |
| By: | Boone, Catherine; Lukalo, Fibian; Joireman, Sandra |
| Abstract: | Smallholder settlement schemes have played a prominent role in Kenya's contested history of state-building, land politics, and electoral mobilization. This paper presents the first georeferenced dataset documenting scheme location, boundaries, and attributes of Kenya's 533 official settlement schemes, as well as the first systematic data on scheme creation since 1980. The data show that almost half of all government schemes were created after 1980, as official rural development rationales for state-sponsored settlement gave way to more explicitly welfarist and electoralist objectives. Even so, logics of state territorialization to fix ethnicized, partisan constituencies to state-defined territorial units pervade the history of scheme creation over the entire 1962–2016 period, as theorized in classic political geography works on state territorialization. While these “geopolitics” of regime construction are fueled by patronage politics, they also sustain practices of land allocation that affirm the moral and political legitimacy of grievance-backed claims for land. This fuels on-going contestation around political representation and acute, if socially-fragmented, demands for state-recognition of land rights. Our findings are consistent with recent political geography and interdisciplinary work on rural peoples' demands for state recognition of land rights and access to natural resources. Kenya's history of settlement scheme creation shows that even in the country's core agricultural districts, where the reach of formal state authority is undisputed, the territorial politics of power-consolidation and resource allocation continues to be shaped by social demands and pressures from below. |
| Keywords: | Kenya; territorial politics; resettlement; political economy; land policy; ES/R005753/1; UKRI block grant |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109307&r= |
| By: | Chakravorty, Bhaskar; Bhatiya, Apurav Yash; Imbert, Clément; Lohnert, Maximilian; Panda, Poonam; Rathelot, Roland |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence on the short and long-term impact of the first COVID-19 wave on India's rural youth. We interviewed about 2,000 vocational trainees from Bihar and Jharkhand between March 2020 and March 2021. We report a stark difference between men and women: while many male workers took up informal employment, most female workers dropped out of the labour force. Using a randomised experiment, we find that a government supported digital job platform does not increase job search or employment. Our findings suggest that bridging the gap between rural youths and urban formal labour markets requires much more active and targeted policy interventions, especially for female workers. |
| Keywords: | Youth unemployment,gender,vocational training,public policy |
| JEL: | J2 J3 J6 J7 M5 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:909&r= |
| By: | Bohdana Kurylo |
| Abstract: | Previous papers on the impacts of same-race teachers have documented that students taught by same-race teachers improve their performance on state exams. However, little is known about whether the positive impact extends beyond test scores to student behavioral outcomes. Using the random assignment of teachers to the U.S. public schools within the Measures of Effective Teaching (MET) project, I show that same-race teachers increase the effectiveness of communications with Black students. I find that this effect is driven by better teacher explanations and consequent improved student understanding, which aligns with the literature about culturally relevant pedagogy. Additionally, I do not find empirical evidence supporting two alternative explanations for the positive effects of a same-race teacher on communication: i) higher general communication ability of Black teachers and ii) more teacher attention directed towards same-race students. Understanding the impacts of same-race teachers is of great importance, as student behavioral outcomes predict their success in the long-term perspective. Further, the findings may also suggest that training non-minority teachers in using culturally relevant pedagogy may improve the performance of disadvantaged minority students in the short-term by complementing diversification of the teacher labor force. |
| Keywords: | same-race teacher; teacher-student communication; teacher expectations; student beliefs; |
| JEL: | I20 I21 J15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp695&r= |
| By: | Theresa Entringer; Hannes Kröger |
| Abstract: | This study compares the level of self-reported mental health and well-being in Germany in the second Covid-19 related lockdown (January/February 2021) with the situation in the first lockdown (March to July 2020). In the second lockdown, satisfaction with health decreased and concerns about health increased compared to the first lockdown. However, both scores remained well above pre-pandemic levels. Further, compared to pre-pandemic levels loneliness remained strongly elevated during the second lockdown, but did not further increase compared to the first lockdown. Depression and anxiety symptoms decreased slightly in the second lockdown compared to the first lockdown and were overall comparable to the levels in 2016. Affective well-being and life satisfaction decreased slightly in the second lockdown compared to the first lockdown and pre-pandemic levels. Especially women, younger people and people with a direct migration background suffered most during the second lockdown: They reported higher loneliness, more depression and anxiety symptoms (or a smaller decrease in the symptoms reported), less affective well-being and a lower life satisfaction. At the same time, socioeconomic factors such as education and income played a smaller role for differences in mental health and well-being than before the pandemic. Die vorliegende Studie vergleicht das Niveau der selbstberichteten psychischen Gesundheit und des Wohlbefindens in Deutschland im zweiten Covid-19 Lockdown (Januar/Februar 2021) mit der Situation im ersten Lockdown (März bis Juli 2020). Im zweiten Lockdown sank die Zufriedenheit mit der Gesundheit und stiegen die Sorgen um die Gesundheit im Vergleich zum ersten Lockdown. Beide Werte blieben aber weiterhin deutlich über dem Vor-Pandemie Niveau. Die Einsamkeit der in Deutschland lebenden Menschen war auch im zweiten Lockdown im Vergleich zum Vor-Pandemie Niveau noch stark erhöht, stieg jedoch im Vergleich zum ersten Lockdown nicht weiter an. Depressions- und Angstsymptome sanken im zweiten Lockdown im Vergleich zum ersten Lockdown wieder leicht und waren damit vergleichbar zum Niveau in 2016. Darüber sanken das affektive Wohlbefinden und die Lebenszufriedenheit im zweiten Lockdown im Vergleich zum ersten Lockdown und dem Vor-Pandemie Niveau leicht. Es zeigt sich, dass insbesondere Frauen, jüngere Menschen und Menschen mit direktem Migrationshintergrund unter dem zweiten Lockdown litten: Sie berichteten eine höhere Einsamkeit, eine höhere Depressions- und Angstsymptomatik (bzw. einen geringeren Rückgang der Symptomatik im Vergleich zum ersten Lockdown), ein geringeres affektives Wohlbefinden und eine geringere Lebenszufriedenheit. Gleichzeitig spielten sozioökonomische Faktoren wie Bildung und Einkommen eine geringere Rolle für Unterschiede in der psychischen Gesundheit und dem Wohlbefinden als vor der Pandemie. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1136&r= |
| By: | Gerald A. Carlino |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the enforceability of employee non compete agreements affects the entry of new establishments and jobs created by these new firms. We use a panel of startup activity for the U.S. states for the period 1977 to 2013. We exploit Michigan’s inadvertent policy reversal in 1985 that transformed the state from a non enforcing to an enforcing state as a quasinatural experiment to estimate the causal effect of enforcement on startup activity. In a difference-in-difference framework, we find little support for the widely held view that enforcement of non-compete agreements negatively affects the entry rate of new firms or the rate of jobs created by new firms. We find that increased enforcement had no effect on the entry rate of startups, but a positive effect on jobs created by these startups in Michigan relative to a counterfactual of states that did not enforce such covenants pre- and post-treatment. Specifically, we find that a doubling of enforcement led to an increase of about 8 percent in the startup job creation rate in Michigan. We also find evidence that enforcing non-competes positively affected the number of high-tech establishments and the level of high tech employment in Michigan. Extending our analysis to consider the effect of increased enforcement on patent activity, we find that enforcement had differential effects across technological classifications. Importantly, increased enforcement had a positive and significant effect on the number of Mechanical patents in Michigan, the most important patenting classification in that state. |
| Keywords: | Startup activity; Non-compete agreements; Regional economic growth. |
| JEL: | O30 O38 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:92949&r= |
| By: | Willem THORBECKE |
| Abstract: | Semiconductors are vital for countless applications. The pandemic generated a surge in IT spending and produced a shortage of semiconductor devices. The semiconductor industry also faces geopolitical challenges as many fear the concentration of production in East Asia. This paper examines the challenges the industry faces and considers possible solutions. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21064&r= |
| By: | Umar Mohammed (Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to lose its skilled workers through migration in a form of brain drain. In return remittances from these migrant workers to the region have been surging and now constitute a major external source of finance. Do these increasing inflow of remittances contribute to human development? This paper examines the impact of remittances on human development in 30 SSA countries using the system Generalized Method of Moments (sGMM) approach for the period 2004-2018. The empirical results show that remittance inflows impact positively on human development in SSA. Based on the empirical results, it is imperative for SSA countries to have a clear-cut policy framework and strategies on migration to attract, increase and harness the full benefit of remittances. |
| Keywords: | Brain drain, Generalized Method of Moments, Human development, Remittances |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01237&r= |
| By: | Masud Alam |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the assumption of homogeneous effects of federal tax changes across the U.S. states and identifies where and why that assumption may not be valid. More specifically, what determines the transmission mechanism of tax shocks at the state level? How vital are states' fiscal structures, financial conditions, labor market rigidities, and industry mix? Do these economic and structural characteristics drive the transmission mechanism of the tax changes at the state level at different horizons? This study employs a panel factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) technique to answer these issues. The findings show that state economies respond homogeneously in terms of employment and price levels; however, they react heterogeneously in real GDP and personal income growth. In most states, these reactions are statistically significant, and the heterogeneity in the effects of tax cuts is significantly related to the state's fiscal structure, manufacturing and financial composition, and the labor market's rigidity. A cross-state regression analysis shows that states with higher tax elasticity, higher personal income tax, strict labor market regulation, and economic policy uncertainties are relatively less responsive to federal tax changes. In contrast, the magnitude of the response in real GDP, personal income, and employment to tax cuts is relatively higher in states with a larger share of finance, manufacturing, lower tax burdens, and flexible credit markets. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13678&r= |
| By: | Federico Huneeus; Conrad Miller; Christopher Neilson; Seth Zimmerman |
| Abstract: | A growing body of evidence shows that differences in firm-specific pay premiums account for a large share of the gender pay gap. This paper asks how a common form of pre-labor market skill specialization, college major, mediates access to high-paying firms, and what this means for the gender earnings gap. Using employer-employee tax data from Chile matched to educational records, we show that differences in college major account for more than two-thirds of the firm contribution to the gender earnings gap among college admits. Degrees in Technology, which are numerous, male-dominated, and associated with high firm premiums, drive these effects. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:917&r= |
| By: | Frederic Boissay; Emilia Garcia-Appendini; Steven Ongena |
| Abstract: | Is conventional monetary policy transmitted through the demand for and supply of intermediate goods in an economy? Analyzing unique US data on corporate linkages, we document that downstream and upstream corporate financial health are instrumental for the transmission of monetary policy. Our estimates suggest that contractionary changes in monetary conditions lead to reductions in both the demand and the supply of all financially constrained business partners, thereby creating bottlenecks, which induce the linked firms themselves to curtail their own activities ("ripple effects"). Overall, our estimates suggest that changes in monetary conditions may have a quantitatively larger impact on firms' operations through the changes in demand and supply induced by constrained business partners than through the firms' own financial conditions. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission, supply chain, aggregate demand, cost channel |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:957&r= |
| By: | Teye, Evans Sackey; Quarshie, Philip Tetteh |
| Abstract: | Rural and agricultural finance innovations have significant potential to improve the livelihoods and food security of the poor. Although microfinance has been widely studied, an extensive knowledge gap still exists on the nuts and bolts of expanding access to rural and agricultural finance. This study uses focus group discussion, key informant interview, and quantitative household survey to explore how smallholders access credits and loans influence adoption of modern production technologies and what are perceived limitations to access these financial instruments in the Shia-Osuduku District in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana. The specific objectives of the study are; (1) to assess the challenges rice farmers face in accessing finance, (2) to determine if access to finance impacts the adoption of modern rice production technologies and (3) to determine whether loan investments in improved technologies increase productivity and income levels of farmers. The study noted that issues of mistrust for smallholder farmers by financial institutions act as barriers to facilitating their access to loans and credits. Banks and financial institutions relay their mistrust through actions such as requesting outrageous collateral, guarantors, a high sum of savings capital, and a high interest rate for agriculture loans, delays, and bureaucratic processes in accessing loans. The study suggested that enabling policy environment and frameworks with a supportive rural infrastructure such as warehouse receipt systems can significantly increase farmers' access to credit instruments for investment in modern technologies to increase agricultural productivity, which is essential to address food insecurities and rural poverty issues in Ghana. |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9ue2k&r= |
| By: | Lou, Loretta |
| Abstract: | Purpose This purpose of this paper is to explain Macau’s successful pandemic response through an analysis of its social, political and economic landscapes. In particular, it focusses on the economic relief brought by casino capitalism in this era of COVID-19. Design/methodology/approach As mobility is highly restricted during the coronavirus pandemic, digital technologies have become central to ongoing social science research. Thanks to videoconferencing programmes such as Zoom, Facetime and WhatsApp, the author was able to carry out virtual interviews with 13 local people from different sectors of Macau in July 2020. In addition to in-depth interviews, the author also undertook an extensive review of the Macau government’s pandemic policies. Findings This paper argues that the Macau government’s swift and effective coronavirus policies are deeply intertwined with the urban fabric and political economy of the city’s casino capitalism, which endowed the government with surplus funds and an infrastructure that enabled the implementation of an array of strict measures that few other countries could afford to subsidise. Factors that have led to Macau’s extraordinarily low rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths include: competent leadership and the public’s high compliance with mandatory health measures; the generous benefits and financial support for citizens and businesses; and the compulsory quarantine required of all incoming travellers, who are lodged in hotel rooms left empty when casino tourists stopped coming. All of these measures have been made possible by a political economy backed by the peculiarities of casino capitalism and its resultant tax revenues. Research limitations/implications Future research could compare the case of Macau with other small but affluent economies (ideally economies that do not depend on the gambling industry) to ascertain the role of casino capitalism in building up economic resilience. Originality/value Although previous studies tend to emphasise the negative impacts of casino capitalism, this paper shows how tax revenues and infrastructure from the gambling industry can make a contribution to the host society in times of crisis. |
| Keywords: | political economy; Macau; gaming industry; Covid-19; casino capitalism; pandemic response; coronavirus |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2021–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111026&r= |
| By: | Bobba, Matteo (Toulouse School of Economics); Ederer, Tim (University of Toulouse I); Leon-Ciliotta, Gianmarco (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Neilson, Christopher A. (Princeton University); Nieddu, Marco (University of Cagliari) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how increasing teacher compensation at hard-to-staff schools can reduce inequality in access to qualifed teachers. Leveraging an unconditional change in the teacher compensation structure in Perú, we first show causal evidence that increasing salaries at less desirable locations attracts better quality applicants and improves student test scores. We then estimate a model of teacher preferences over local amenities, school characteristics, and wages using geocoded job postings and rich application data from the nationwide centralized teacher assignment system. Our estimated model suggests that the current policy is both inefficient and not large enough to effectively undo the inequality of initial conditions that hard-to-staff schools and their communities face. Counterfactual analyses that incorporate equilibrium sorting effects characterize alternative wage schedules and quantify the cost of reducing structural inequality in the allocation of teacher talent across schools. |
| Keywords: | inequality, teacher school choice, teacher wages, matching with contracts |
| JEL: | J31 J45 I21 C93 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14581&r= |
| By: | Sébastien Duchêne (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Adrien Nguyen-Huu (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier); Dimitri Dubois (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marc Willinger (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UMR 5211 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of environmental externalities on portfolio decisions in a lab-inthe-field experiment on finance professionals and students. Subjects show pro-environmental preferences, with a strong asymmetry because of the sign of the externality. They are prone to accept lower return for positive environmental impact, but not to bear increased risk. Finance professionals are more pro-environmental than students, particularly regarding negative externalities, and less influenced by a ranking signal about environmental performance. Additional control tasks show that pro-social and pro-environmental preferences have much less influence on portfolio composition than market practices for finance professionals, but they are significant predictors for students. |
| Abstract: | Nous évaluons l'impact d'externalités environnementales sur les décisions de portefeuille dans le cadre d'une expérience en laboratoire sur des professionnels de la finance et des étudiants. Les sujets exhibent des préférences pro-environnementales, avec une forte asymétrie due au signe de l'externalité. Ils sont enclins à accepter un rendement inférieur pour un impact environnemental positif, mais pas à supporter un risque accru. Les professionnels de la finance sont plus pro-environnementaux que les étudiants, notamment en ce qui concerne les externalités négatives, et moins influencés par un signal de rang concernant la performance environnementale. Des tâches de contrôle supplémentaires montrent que les préférences pro-sociales et pro-environnementales ont beaucoup moins d'influence sur la composition du portefeuille que les pratiques de marché pour les professionnels de la finance, mais qu'elles sont des prédicteurs significatifs pour les étudiants. |
| Date: | 2021–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03285376&r= |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Asheim, Bjørn (University of Stavanger); Isaksen, Arne (Universit of Agder); Nielsen, Hjalti (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Human agency has become a core topic in economic geography complementing traditional, structural approaches to explain regional development. This paper contributes firstly with a discussion of the theoretical and conceptual relationships between the agency of individuals, organizations, and systems. Secondly, it proposes a novel analytical framework for studying how human agency, combined with external changes affects regional economic development, and how regional structural preconditions and external changes explain the activation of change agency. Thirdly, the relevance of the framework is examined through comparative studies of about 20 years of industrial development in three Norwegian regions. This illuminates the importance of human agency in regional transformation processes, how regional preconditions influence but not determine the activation of change agency, as well as why and how regional policy plays a role in the emergence of change agency. Yet, future research needs to investigate the context conditions, which promote or hinder the activation of change agency, to trace changes in economic activities over time and link it to causal mechanisms, and to pay attention to the unintended consequences of change agency in the longer-term. |
| Keywords: | human agency; regional development; structural transformation |
| JEL: | L60 O10 O30 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2021_007&r= |
| By: | Laurent CLERC,; Anne-Lise BONTEMPS-CHANEL,; Sébastien DIOT,; George OVERTON,; Solène SOARES DE ALBERGARIA,; Lucas VERNET,; Maxime LOUARDI. |
| Abstract: | L’exercice pilote climatique conduit par l’ACPR est inédit. C’est en effet la première fois qu’un superviseur organise avec les groupes bancaires et organismes d’assurance placés sous sa responsabilité un exercice d’évaluation des risques associés au changement climatique aussi complet et exigeant. Son caractère inédit et ambitieux réside dans l’horizon sur lequel les risques sont évalués (30 ans), les méthodologies employées (analyse de scénarios déclinés au niveau des secteurs économiques), ses hypothèses novatrices (notamment de bilan dynamique), sa couverture des risques physique et de transition, enfin, le fait que les institutions participantes évaluent directement leurs risques sur la base d’hypothèses communes. Il illustre le rôle moteur joué par les autorités et la place financière de Paris et les progrès accomplis dans la lutte contre le dérèglement climatique, depuis l’adoption de la Loi sur la transition énergétique et la croissance verte et la signature de l’Accord de Paris en 2015. |
| Keywords: | Changement climatique ; prix du carbone ; projections à long terme ; régulation bancaire ; scénarios ; tests de résistance. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 H23 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:analys:122&r= |
| By: | Franz Dietrich (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Brian Jabarian |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03282198&r= |
| By: | Yusuf Sofiyandi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Yusuf Reza Kurniawan (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Khoirunurrofik (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Prayoga Wiradisuria (PT. MRT Jakarta); Dikki Nur Ahmad Saleh (PT. MRT Jakarta) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of mobility restriction on daily mass rapid transit (MRT) ridership in Jakarta-Indonesia, and its implication for the farebox revenues during the pandemic COVID-19 outbreak. For the analysis, we primarily used the fare cost and daily passenger datasets of 156 origin-destination pair routes from April 2019 to May 2021. Three types of mobility restrictions are examined: (i) 50% of maximum passenger capacity setting, (ii) station closures, and (iii) changes in service operating hours. A panel dynamic fixed-effects regression model was fitted to quantify the economic losses on farebox revenue due to the mobility restrictions. We find that the average daily MRT ridership decrease by 56.6% due to capacity restriction, 32.6% due to station closures, and 1.7% due to a one-hour decrease in service operating hours. The station closures lead to a route diversion with a significant increase in ridership among other stations. While the effects of capacity restriction and changes in service operation hours have a larger impact during weekdays, the effect of station closure is more pronounced during the weekend. Our estimation results also reveal that the mobility restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic have caused a loss of IDR 179.4 billion or equal to USD12.4 million in terms of potential farebox revenues to the MRT train service operator. This amount could contribute to 65.6% of total realized farebox revenues in 2019–2020. This finding suggests the importance of adjusting the tariff subsidy policy in times of crisis, considering that the company still bears the operating costs despite decreasing operating hours. It also advises the company to take this crisis as momentum to enhance operational efficiency and expand the business prospect from non-fare box revenue. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 — pandemic — public transport — MRT — ridership — mobility restriction |
| JEL: | L92 O18 R40 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202162&r= |
| By: | Fulvia Fringuellotti; Joao A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | We show that insurance companies have almost nonupled their investments in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in the post-crisis period, reaching total holdings of $125 billion in 2019. The growth in CLOs’ investments has far outpaced that of loans and corporate bonds, and was characterized by a strong preference for mezzanine tranches rated investment grade over triple-A rated tranches. We document that these phenomena reflect a search for yield behavior. Conditional on capital charges, insurance companies invest more heavily in bonds and CLO tranches with higher yields. Preferences for CLO tranches derived from tranches’ higher yields relative to bonds with the same rating, and increased following the 2010 capital regulatory reform, resulting in insurance companies holding more than 40 percent of mezzanine tranches outstanding in 2019. In the process, insurance companies created the demand for the risky tranches that are critical to the CLO issuance. |
| Keywords: | insurance companies; CLOs; regulatory arbitrage; corporate loans; securitization |
| JEL: | G11 G20 G22 |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:92942&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic vulnerabilities have declined since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The economy is expected to rebound swiftly in 2021 as activities return to normality and the population is increasingly vaccinated. External imbalances are contained. The fiscal position is gradually consolidated as the authorities remain committed to the revised fiscal rule, which will ensure a declining path for the NFPS debt. The outlook remains subject to elevated risks, including uncertainties arising from possible more contagious variants of the COVID-19 virus. Domestic risks include setbacks in implementing the FATF action plan to exit the grey list, delays in fiscal consolidation, and a prolonged pandemic that could exacerbate socioeconomic hardship and derail economic policies and the recovery. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/175&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | After over two decades of unprecedented economic expansion, Panama’s economy contracted sharply in 2020 amidst challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic. As conditions rapidly deteriorated, Panama requested financial support under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for 100 percent of quota equivalent to US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.4 billion) to address immediate balance of payments needs, which the IMF Executive Board approved on April 15, 2020. Subsequently, uncertainties magnified, and Panama requested a two-year arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) for 500 percent of quota, equivalent to US$2.7 billion (SDR 1.9 billion), as insurance against extreme external shocks, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on January 19, 2021. |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/173&r= |
| By: | Savelyev, Peter A. (College of William and Mary); Ward, Benjamin C. (University of Georgia); Krueger, Robert F. (University of Minnesota); McGue, Matt (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | We analyze data from the Minnesota Twin Registry (MTR), combined with the Socioeconomic Survey of Twins (SST), and new mortality data, and contribute to two bodies of literature. First, we demonstrate a beneficial causal effect of education on health and longevity in contrast to other twin-based studies of the US population, which show little or no effect of education on health. Second, we present evidence that parents compensate for differences in their children's health endowments through education, but find no evidence that parents reinforce differences in skill endowments. We argue that there is a bias towards detecting reinforcement both in this paper and in the literature. Despite this bias, we still find statistical evidence of compensating behavior. We account for observed and unobserved confounding factors, sample selection bias, and measurement error in education. |
| Keywords: | health, education, intrafamily resource allocation, skill endowment, health endowment, longevity, twin study, Minnesota Twin Registry |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I24 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14600&r= |
| By: | Tiziana M. Gauci |
| Abstract: | This study looks at the trends in educational attainment of the Maltese population over the last 15 years. Data obtained from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show that the educational attainment of the Maltese workforce has ameliorated significantly during this period, though it still falls short of the European Union (EU) benchmark in some respects. The first part of this study looks at the long-term trends in education attainment in Malta and how it compared with other EU countries. In terms of EU targets, Malta had reached its national target with respect to the percentage of persons aged between 30 and 34 years having a tertiary level of education already in 2017. On the contrary, despite the country managed to half the rate of early school leavers from its 2005 levels, the rate of early school leavers in 2020 is still short of the EU’s benchmark. The second part compares the earnings, employment and unemployment of high skilled workers compared to those with lower levels of education. The third section looks at the main factors behind the increase in education attainment. The share of population having a tertiary level of education increased to 28.0% in 2020, up from 10.3% in 2005. In addition, this section attempts to measure the efficiency of public spending in Malta, with indicators for primary, secondary and tertiary indicators, as well as the role of migration. |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mlt:ppaper:0321&r= |
| By: | David Laibson; Peter Maxted; Benjamin Moll |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model where households have present-biased time preferences and naive beliefs. The model features a liquid asset and illiquid home equity, which households can use as collateral for borrowing. Because present bias substantially increases households' marginal propensity to consume (MPC), present bias increases the impact of fiscal policy. Present bias also amplifies the effect of monetary policy but, at the same time, slows down the speed of monetary transmission. Interest rate cuts incentivize households to conduct cash-out refinances, which become targeted liquidity-injections to high-MPC households. But present bias also introduces a motive for households to procrastinate refinancing their mortgages, which slows down the speed with which this monetary channel operates. |
| JEL: | D14 D15 E03 E2 E21 E5 E62 E71 G4 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29094&r= |
| By: | Zolea, Riccardo |
| Abstract: | The relation between interest and profit rate is crucial, as it has a major impact on income distribution, and it is relevant for the interpretation of the functioning of the economic system. After reviewing the literature, I try to interpret this relation between rates using banking profitability as the keystone. The condition that the capital employed in the banking industry should receive a profit rate at least equal to the general profit rate, combined with a careful examination of the functioning of the banking sector, makes conceivable an endogenous determination of the interest rate. The bank interest rate on loans is the price of the "loan" commodity, given the production conditions of the banking sector, where the rate set by the central bank constitutes the price of an input of the banking industry. I also analyse the formation of the interest rate structure, taking as starting points the main refinancing rate set by the central bank and the normal profitability of bank capital, with the lending rate on bank loans being the upper margin and the deposit rate the lower margin of the interest rate corridor. The interest rates structure is thus determined by several elements, confirming Marx's idea of a heterogeneous determination of interest rates. Alternatively, it can be assumed that, as the banking industry is characterized by a high degree of monopoly, its profit rate is higher than the average for the rest of the economy. In Marxian terms this reflects contrast between financial capitalists and productive capitalists, where the high degree of monopoly of the banking sector becomes a weapon to capture a higher share of total profits. |
| Keywords: | Bank profitability, rate of profit, interest rate, Marx |
| JEL: | E43 G2 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108973&r= |
| By: | Clément de Chaisemartin (Universite de Californie, J-PAL Europe - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab - Europe); Quentin Daviot (J-PAL Europe - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab - Europe); Marc Gurgand (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, J-PAL Europe - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab - Europe); Sophie Kern (Laboratoire de dynamique du langage - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Quand un enfant issu d'un milieu défavorisé entre à l'école, il maitrise en moyenne moins bien le langage qu'un enfant issu d'un milieu favorisé. Ce désavantage le pénalisera dans ses apprentissages pendant sa scolarité, augmentera ses risques de décrochage et aura des conséquences sur ses conditions de vie futures. De nombreux travaux de recherche soutiennent que l'on peut cependant corriger cette situation dès la petite enfance, par exemple en introduisant des programmes de haute qualité éducative en crèche. Le programme Parler Bambin vise à former les professionnelles de crèche pour renforcer leurs connaissances et leurs pratiques quotidiennes dans le domaine du langage et de l'interaction langagière, et ainsi améliorer le développement langagier des jeunes enfants. Le programme a pour vocation de réduire ces inégalités précoces de développement langagier, dans l'espoir, à terme, de réduire les inégalités scolaires et socio-économiques. Cette étude évalue les effets du programme Parler Bambin sur les pratiques des professionnelles et sur le développement des enfants. Pour ce faire, nous avons mené une évaluation randomisée à grande échelle auprès de 94 crèches réparties sur le territoire de la France métropolitaine, en suivant des enfants issus de familles défavorisées. Nous avons travaillé avec ces crèches pendant trois années dans le but d'estimer des effets de court et de plus long termes. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03288700&r= |
| By: | Shan Huang; Hannes Ullrich |
| Abstract: | Human antibiotic consumption is considered the main driver of antibiotic resistance. Reducing human antibiotic consumption without compromising health care quality poses one of the most important global health policy challenges. A crucial condition for designing effective policies is to identify who drives antibiotic treatment decisions, physicians or patient demand. We measure the causal effect of physician practice style on antibiotic intake and health outcomes exploiting variation in patient-physician relations due to physician exits in general practice in Denmark. We estimate that physician practice style accounts for 53 to 56 percent of between-clinic differences in all antibiotic consumption, and for 74 to 81 percent in the consumption of second-line antibiotic drugs. We find little evidence that low prescribing styles adversely affect health outcomes measured as preventable hospitalizations due to infections. Our findings suggest that policies to curb antibiotic resistance are most effective when aimed at improving physician decision-making, in particular when they target high prescribers. High prescribing practice styles are positively associated with physician age and negatively with staff size and the availability of diagnostic tools, suggesting that improvements in the quality of diagnostic information is an important path to improved decisions. |
| Keywords: | antibiotic prescribing, practice styles, general practitioners |
| JEL: | I11 J44 I12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1958&r= |
| By: | Baer, Moritz; Campiglio, Emanuele; Deyris, Jérôme |
| Abstract: | This article studies how institutional dynamics might affect the implementation of climate-related financial policies. First, we propose a three-dimensional framework to distinguish: i) motives for policy implementation (prudential or promotional); ii) policy instruments (informational, incentive or coercive); and iii) implementing authorities (political or delegated). Second, we use this framework to show how sustainable financial interventions in certain jurisdictions - most notably, Europe - rely solely on informational policies to achieve both promotional and prudential objectives. Policymakers in other jurisdictions - e.g., China - also implement incentive or coercive financial policies to achieve promotional objectives. Third, we identify two main institutional explanations for this European ‘promotional gap’: i) limited control of political authorities on financial dynamics; and ii) strong powers and independence of delegated authorities. This governance configuration leads to an institutional deadlock in which only measures fitting with both political and delegated authorities’ objectives can be implemented. Finally, we discuss the scenarios that might originate from the current institutional setting. We identify three possible evolutionary paths: i) a drift towards a green financial technocracy; ii) a re-politicization of delegated authorities; iii) a move towards fiscal-monetary coordination. |
| Keywords: | sustainable finance; climate change; low-carbon transition; central banks; financial supervisors; delegation; Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy; 853050 |
| JEL: | E44 E58 G28 G18 G14 |
| Date: | 2021–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111492&r= |
| By: | Duk Gyoo Kim |
| Abstract: | Ohio announced a Vax-a-Million Lottery in May 2021 to encourage people vaccinated. If people may avoid vaccination because (1) they worry about rare but critical side effects or (2) they want to free ride on herd immunity, the vaccination lottery may work better or worse than a lump-sum transfer to the contributors for herd immunity. I experimentally compare the effectiveness of the vaccination lottery over a lump-sum transfer. Overall, vaccination lottery works better, and it particularly incentivizes probability-weighting subjects. |
| Keywords: | vaccination incentives, lottery, Covid-19, laboratory experiments |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9225&r= |
| By: | Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Die Europäische Kommission (2021) und die OECD (2021) haben jüngst ihre Konjunkturprognosen vorgelegt. Unter anderem wurden für viele Länder Schätzungen der Produktionslücke sowie einiger fiskalischer Größen veröffentlicht, die eine Ableitung der erwarteten finanzpolitischen Ausrichtung erlauben. Von besonderem Interesse ist der strukturelle Primärsaldo, also der staatliche Finanzierungssaldo, der um Konjunktureffekte, Einmaleffekte und Änderungen in den Zinsausgaben bereinigt ist. In der Entwicklung dieser Kennzahl drücken sich somit im Wesentlichen Änderungen in den öffentlichen Einnahmen und Ausgaben aus, die auf diskretionären finanzpolitischen Entscheidungen beruhen und so die Ausrichtung der Finanzpolitik anzeigen: Steigt dieser Saldo, verbessert sich die strukturelle Situation der öffentlichen Haushalte; es wird also konsolidiert (restriktiver Fiskalimpuls). Sinkt der strukturelle Primärsaldo, so impliziert dies eine aktive finanzpolitische Unterstützung für die Konjunktur (expansiver Fiskalimpuls). Bleibt der strukturelle Primärsaldo konstant, ist die finanzpolitische Ausrichtung neutral (Abbildung 1). |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:202112&r= |
| By: | Vincent Dropsy (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française); Sylvain Petit (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire - UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française, CRISS - Centre de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Sciences de la Société - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France, CRESEM - Centre de Recherche sur les Sociétés et Environnements en Méditerranées - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia) |
| Abstract: | La force de l'économie chinoise a été historiquement liée à son ouverture et à ses liens avec le reste du monde. Pendant quinze siècles, l'ancienne route de la soie a fourni un réseau de routes et de voies maritimes pour le commerce des marchandises et le transfert des connaissances avec l'Europe et le Moyen-Orient. L'initiative "Ceinture et Route" (Belt and Road Initiative) est une tentative de reconstruction d'une route de la soie moderne afin entre autres raisons, de réduire les coûts de transport des marchandises échangées. L'objectif de cette communication est de fournir un panorama du commerce international de la Chine et d'étudier la sensibilité des flux commerciaux bilatéraux entre les pays situés le long des corridors de la Ceinture et de la Route à la distance, aux masses économiques et démographiques, ainsi qu'à d'autres variables de proximité culturelle et politique. Pour se faire, nous utilisons un modèle gravité, afin d'analyser les flux commerciaux de la Chine par rapport à ceux prévus par le modèle, ce qui nous permet d'évaluer le bénéfice potentiel de ce projet. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03298832&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ & ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : The combined impact of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic on British foreign- and trade relations to Israel and its Arab neighbours constitute a particularly sensitive case. A destabilization of these countries could impact seriously stability and security, not just of the Middle-East region, but on the whole world. So far, the preliminary effects are ambivalent. Whereas Britons entertained reasoned hope for a ‘Corona miracle’ and a marvellous economic recovery in 2021, the prospects for Israel, the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt were less rosy. Presumably, Brexit is likely to harm the United Kingdom in the medium and long run. The post-Brexit impact on Israel and its Arab neighbours will be negative as well, but probably only be felt in the medium and long term also. However, the direct and indirect negative effects of the global COVID-19 crisis will by far outdo the Brexit impact. RÉSUMÉ : L'impact combiné du Brexit et de la pandémie de COVID-19 sur les relations étrangères et commerciales britanniques avec Israël et ses voisins arabes constitue un cas particulièrement sensible. Une déstabilisation de ces pays pourrait avoir de graves répercussions sur la stabilité et la sécurité, non seulement de la région du Moyen-Orient, mais du monde entier. Jusqu'à présent, les effets préliminaires sont ambivalents. Alors que les Britanniques nourrissaient un espoir raisonné d'un « miracle de Corona » et d'une merveilleuse reprise économique en 2021, les perspectives pour Israël, les territoires palestiniens occupés, le Liban, la Jordanie et l'Égypte étaient moins roses. Vraisemblablement, le Brexit est susceptible de nuire au Royaume-Uni à moyen et long terme. L'impact post-Brexit sur Israël et ses voisins arabes sera également négatif, mais ne se fera probablement sentir qu'à moyen et long terme également. Cependant, l'effet négatif direct et indirect de la crise mondiale du COVID-19 dépassera de loin l'impact du Brexit. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : Die gemeinsamen Auswirkungen des Brexits und der COVID-19-Pandemie auf die britischen Außen- und Handelsbeziehungen zu Israel und seinen arabischen Nachbarn sind ein besonders heikler Fall. Eine Destabilisierung dieser Länder könnte die Stabilität und Sicherheit nicht nur im Nahen Osten, sondern auf der ganzen Welt ernsthaft gefährden. Bisher erscheinen die vorläufigen Effekte ambivalent. Während die Briten begründete Hoffnungen auf ein „Corona-Wunder“ und eine erstaunliche wirtschaftliche Erholung im Jahr 2021 hegen, sind die Aussichten für Israel, die besetzten palästinensischen Gebiete, den Libanon, Jordanien und Ägypten weniger rosig. Vermutlich wird der Brexit dem Vereinigten Königreich mittel- und langfristig schaden. Die post-Brexit Auswirkungen auf Israel und seine arabischen Nachbarn werden ebenfalls negativ s, aber vermutlich ebenfalls nur mittel- und langfristig zu spüren sein. Die direkten und indirekten negativen Effekte der weltweiten COVID-19-Krise werden jedoch die Folgen des Brexits bei weitem übertreffen. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, pandémie de COVID-19, Corona, croissance économique, Israël, Palestine, Liban, Jordanie, Egypte, Royaume-Uni, commerce international, zone de libre-échange, union douanière, Anglosphère |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F22 F52 F63 F68 I14 N1 N40 O24 O5 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109101&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/178&r= |
| By: | Rohini Pande; Nils T. Enevoldsen |
| Abstract: | Early tests of cross-country convergence found evidence only for conditional convergence. In contrast, with more recent data, Kremer, Willis, and You (2021) find evidence that since the mid-1980s there has been a trend towards unconditional convergence culminating in absolute convergence since 2000. Additionally, they find suggestive evidence that one of the major drivers of this trend is an underlying convergence towards development-favored policies. We discuss the implications of this result through the lens of individual welfare and poverty, concluding that the news is not as welcome as it may seem for the world’s poor. We point out that absolute convergence has happened contemporaneously with rising within-country inequality, resulting in more of the world’s poor living in middle-income countries. Next, we argue that domestic redistribution is essential to spread the benefits from industrialization, since the labor share of manufacturing isn’t reaching the heights it did in industrialized countries. Finally, we argue that the democratic institutions that can facilitate this redistribution themselves face headwinds. Democratic backsliding, the Covid-19 pandemic, and a bleak climate outlook all present obstacles to transforming economic growth into economic justice for the poor. |
| JEL: | E02 O43 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29046&r= |
| By: | Siegel, Jessica; Dunkel, Kolja; Terstriep, Judith |
| Abstract: | Die aktuelle Diversifizierung von wissenschaftlicher Arbeit schlägt sich auch in der externen Wissenschaftskommunikation nieder. Soziale Medien bringen eine Vielzahl neuer Akteure, Zielgruppen und Kommunikationskanäle hervor. Soziale Medien sind Teil moderner Wissenschaftskommunikation. Sie erlauben Aktualität und Partizipation und erfordern neben der "Aktion" auch die "Reaktion" der Kommunizierenden. Als strategisches Instrument werden sie nicht ausreichend wahrgenommen. "Content" ist entscheidend: Die Wissenschaftskommunikation erfolgt personen-, themen- und projektgetrieben. Wissenschaftskommunikation kann nicht nur "nebenbei" erfolgen. Eine strategische Wissenschaftskommunikation braucht eine geeignete Infrastruktur und erfordert zeitliche sowie finanzielle Ressourcen. Die Verbindung von Wissenschaft und Praxis ist ein Leitbild der WHS und des IAT. Bei zunehmender Komplexität und disziplinärer Differenzierung der Wissenschaft kann die Kommunikation Brücken schlagen. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iatfor:062021&r= |
| By: | Mann, Laura; Iazzolino, Gianluca |
| Abstract: | While there is growing literature on the role of platforms in concentrating market power, this article centres on their role in ‘performing’ economic theory. As infrastructures that measure, monitor and ultimately compel human behaviour, the authors argue that digital platforms should be understood as ‘performative infrastructures’ that seek to incorporate informal populations by compelling behaviour in line with certain theoretical and commercial models. The article draws on secondary historical literature and primary research with Kenyan and international agritech developers, farmers, and representatives from international organizations, regulators and farmer organizations, to historicize contemporary ‘platformization’ within a longer history of infrastructural performativity in rural Kenya, in order to tease out both continuities and departures from the past. While contemporary technologists evoke similar justifications for top-down control over markets as did their analogue predecessors, they nonetheless seek to vest such power within the private sector and to use it to perform neoclassical theory. The authors argue that this particular orientation is not an intrinsic feature of the technology itself but is rather shaped by a longer history of shifting policy paradigms. |
| Keywords: | ES/P009603/1; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 J1 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110725&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Favara; Camelia Minoiu; Ander Perez |
| Abstract: | The unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy support in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore concerns that cheap credit could fuel the financing of zombie firms—that is, firms that are unable to generate enough profits to cover debt-servicing costs and that need to borrow to stay alive. Many observers have recently commented that zombie firms may crowd out lending to productive firms and erode the strength of the U.S. economy. |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-07-30-2&r= |
| By: | Daniel Levy (Bar-Ilan University); Avichai Snir; Haipeng (Allan) Chen |
| Abstract: | We use micro level retail price data from convenience stores to study the link between 0-ending price points and price rigidity during a period of a runaway inflation, when the annual inflation rate was in the range of 60%–430%. Surprisingly, we find that 0-ending prices are less likely to adjust, and when they do adjust, the average adjustments are larger. These findings suggest that price adjustment barriers associated with round prices are strong enough to cause a systematic delay in price adjustments even in a period of a runaway inflation, when 85 percent of the prices change every month. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biu:wpaper:2021-01&r= |
| By: | Häusler, Konstantin; Xia, Hongyu |
| Abstract: | Several cryptocurrency (CC) indices track the dynamics of the rising CC sector, and soon ETFs will be issued on them. We conduct a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the currently existing CC indices. As the CC sector is not yet consolidated, index issuers face the challenge of tracking the dynamics of a fast-growing sector that is under continuous transformation. We propose several criteria and various measures to compare the indices under review. Major differences between the indices lie in their weighting schemes, their coverage of CCs and the number of constituents, the level of transparency, and thus their accuracy in mapping the dynamics of the CC sector. Our analysis reveals that indices that adapt dynamically to this rising sector outperform their competitors. Interestingly, increasing the number of constituents does not automatically lead to a better fit of the CC sector. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency,Index,Market Dynamics,Bitcoin |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2021014&r= |
| By: | Jose J. Canals-Cerda; Brian Jonghwan Lee |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on auto loan origination activity during 2020. We focus on the dynamic impact of the crisis across lending channels, Equifax Risk Score (Risk Score) segments, and relevant geographic characteristics such as urbanization rate. We measure a significant drop in auto loan originations in March‒April followed by a near rebound in May‒June. Originations remain slightly depressed until October and fall again in November‒December. We document the largest drop and the smallest rebound in the subprime segment. We do not find any suggestive evidence that used car loan originations exhibited patterns significantly different from the rest of the market. We also document a more pronounced impact in the Northeast and the Pacific, seemingly influenced by the higher urbanization rate in these regions. Bank-financed originations experienced the largest drop and the smallest rebound, thus resulting in a loss of market share and continuing a 10-year trend of bank share loss in auto lending. We find that the drop in auto loans originated by banks was particularly significant among subprime borrowers. The impact of the COVID-19 crisis across origination channels contrasts with the experience during the Great Recession when banks contributed the largest support to the auto loan origination segment during periods of stress and finance company-originated auto loans were depressed. |
| Keywords: | auto loans; loan originations; COVID-19; consumer credit; bank and non-bank finance |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G23 L62 |
| Date: | 2021–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:92966&r= |
| By: | Thomas Geelen (Copenhagen Business School - Department of Finance; Danish Finance Institute); Erwan Morellec (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute); Natalia Rostova (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | Lending relationships matter for firm financing. In a model of debt dynamics, we study how lending relationships are formed and how they impact leverage and debt maturity choices. In the model, lending relationships evolve through repeated interactions between firms and debt investors. Stronger lending relationships lead firms to adopt higher leverage ratios, issue longer term debt, and raise funds from non-relationship lenders when relationship quality is sufficiently high. The maturity of debt contracts issued to non-relationship investors is higher than that of relationship investors. Negative shocks to relationship lenders drastically affect the financing choices of firms with intermediate relationship quality. |
| Keywords: | relationship lending, capital structure, debt maturity, default |
| JEL: | G20 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2146&r= |
| By: | Mir M. Ali; Chandler B. McClellan; Ryan Mutter; Daniel I. Rees |
| Abstract: | Recent studies have concluded that state laws legalizing medical marijuana can reduce deaths from opioid overdoses. Using data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a survey uniquely suited to assessing drug misuse, we examine the relationship between recreational marijuana laws (RMLs) and the use of opioids. Standard difference-in-differences (DD) regression estimates indicate that RMLs do not affect the likelihood of misusing prescription pain relievers such as OxyContin, Percocet, and Vicodin. Although DD regression estimates provide evidence that state laws legalizing recreational marijuana can reduce the frequency of misusing prescription pain relievers, event-study estimates are noisy and suggest that any effect on the frequency of misuse is likely transitory. |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29087&r= |
| By: | Cem Cakmakli (Department of Economics, Koç University); Selva Demiralp (Department of Economics, Koç University); Gokhan Sahin Gunes (BETAM, Bahcesehir University) |
| Abstract: | With the global rise in authoritarianism, there has been an increase in political commentaries by the populist leaders that have criticized their central banks in favor of lower interest rates. We analyze the effects of these political pressures on exchange rates. We provide strong empirical evidence where political commentaries affect both the level and the volatility of exchange rate returns. The intensity of political pressures as well as institutional strength play a key role in determining the size of the impact. |
| Keywords: | Political pressure, exchange rate, time inconsistency, populism. |
| JEL: | E5 G1 F31 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2112&r= |
| By: | Chrysoula Papalexatou |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the evolution of bank-state ties in Greece during the Economic Adjustment Programmes (EAPs). On one hand, the Greek institutional framework points to close "formal and informal ties" between political and banking elites, while at the same time the Troika's pressure to reduce the state 's political influence in the banking sector was expected to be high. Indeed, from the very early stages of the crisis, even though the recapitalisation was realised with public funds, the Greek government 's actual control of the banking sector was restricted, and "formal links" between the banks and the state were broken. Nonetheless, little was done before 2015 in order to evaluate and restructure the governing bodies of the Greek banks, keeping the "informal links" intact during the first two EAPs. In order to explain this surprising delay, this paper advances a new narrative. Based on 25 in-depth elite interviews with actors involved in the recapitalisations, it demonstrates that preserving these "informal" bank-state ties served as an important crisis management tool and proved useful for safeguarding financial stability at the domestic but also at the EU level. Lastly, evidence suggests that beyond the creation of the Banking Union, it was the international actors' lack of trust in the Greek government, which finally led to aggressive corporate governance reforms of Greek systemic banks breaking the "informal ties" between the bank and the state after the third recapitalisation. |
| Keywords: | Bank-state ties, Economic Adjustment Programmes, recapitalisation, financial stability |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:162&r= |
| By: | Richard Foltyn; Jonna Olsson |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how heterogeneity in life expectancy, objective (statistical) as well as subjective, affects savings behavior between healthy and unhealthy people. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we show that people in poor health not only have shorter actual lifespan, but are also more pessimistic about their remaining time of life. Using a standard overlapping-generations model, we show that differences in life expectancy can explain one third of the differences in accumulated wealth with an important part driven by pessimism among unhealthy people. |
| Keywords: | Life expectancy, preference heterogeneity, subjective beliefs, life cycle |
| JEL: | D15 E21 G41 I14 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2021_13&r= |
| By: | Orsetta Causa; Michael Abendschein; Maria Chiara Cavalleri |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on inter-regional migration, housing and the role of policies, drawing on a new comparative cross-country approach. The results show that OECD countries exhibit stark variation in both levels and trends in inter-regional migration, which is found to be highly responsive to local housing and economic conditions. In turn, a large number of policies in the area of housing, labour markets, social protection and product markets influence the responsiveness of inter-regional migration to local economic conditions. For instance, more flexible housing supply makes inter-regional migration more responsive to local economic conditions while higher regulatory barriers to business start-ups and entry in professions significantly reduce the responsiveness of inter-regional mobility to local economic conditions. The capacity of workers to move regions in response to local economic shocks is one key dimension of labour market dynamism which could, at the current juncture, contribute to the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. In this context, the paper proposes articulating structural with place-based policies to help prospective movers as well as stayers. |
| Keywords: | housing markets, Internal migration, labour markets, place-based policies, regional disparities, regional economic conditions, regional house prices, regional mobility, social protection, structural policies |
| JEL: | R23 R12 R50 R58 J61 H20 |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1679-en&r= |
| By: | Ram Mohan, M.P.; Gupta, Aditya |
| Abstract: | A bankrupt debtor’s ability to escape unprofitable contracts, enshrined in Section 365 of the American Bankruptcy Code, is considered central to a successful reorganisation within Chapter 11. The ambit of this power and the consequence of its application has been the subject of unceasing legal and business controversy. Intellectual property licenses assumed the forefront of this controversy in 1985 when the Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit held that Section 365 includes a unilateral power to rescind an Intellectual Property License. Congress reacted to the Court’s decision by amending Section 365 and legislating specific protections for Intellectual Property Licensees. This paper explores the American jurisprudence on the treatment of intellectual property licenses during bankruptcy and examines them within the insolvency regimes of the United Kingdom and India. The study reveals an important legal deficiency: neither jurisdiction incorporates any explicit protections for Intellectual Property Licenses during bankruptcy. Further, we find no substantive provisions that deal with the treatment of ongoing contracts during Corporate Insolvency Resolution Proceedings in India and Administration in the UK. For India, this raises an important issue relating to the desirability of a resolution professional’s ability to interfere with pre-petition IP licensing agreements. The authors underline the importance of such interference and suggest amendments to the Indian insolvency regime to deal with intellectual property licenses during bankruptcy. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14657&r= |
| By: | Kurani, Kenneth; Buch, Koral |
| Abstract: | While ownership and purchase of all vehicles approach gender parity, to date electric vehicles (EV) are being purchased by far more men than women. Prior analysis from California finds no reason in the available data why this difference persists. This report extends that analysis across 12 other U.S. states with varying, but generally less supportive than California, EV policy and market contexts. Data are from a survey conducted of new-car buying households at the end of 2014, which allowed participants to express their prospective interest in acquiring an EV. Participants then indicated why they were motivated to select an EV or what motivated them to not select one. Via multivariate modeling, differences in prospective interest in EVs between female and male respondents are examined, and overall, no difference rises to the level of the observed differences in real EV markets. Further, the multivariate modeling indicates no statistically significant effect of a sex indicator on prospective interest almost anywhere in these data; where there is a difference, female participants are estimated to be more likely to select an EV than their male counterparts. While participants from both sexes tend to give high scores to the same EV (de)motivations, differences in their rank orders repeat generalizations from other research. On average, female respondents score environmental motivations for selecting an EV higher than do male respondents. On average, male participants score interest in “new technology” as a motivation for selecting an EV higher than do female participants. Conversely, on average female respondents who do not select an EV score “unfamiliar technology” more highly than their male counterparts. Within the variation in EV policy and market contexts represented in this study, no finding here explains why similar prospective interest in EVs from five years ago has yet to be turned toward equal participation in EV markets. Explanations may lie in factors not modeled here. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicle, zero emission vehicle, gender, sex, policy, market |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9zz8n5x5&r= |
| By: | Filomena, Mattia; Picchio, Matteo |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a meta-analysis on the effects of retirement on health. We select academic papers published between 2000 and 2021 studying the impact of retirement on physical and mental health, self-assessed general health, healthcare utilization and mortality. Among 275 observations from 85 articles, 28% (13%) find positive (negative) effects of retirement on health outcomes. Almost 60% of the observations do not provide statistically significant findings. Using meta-regression analysis, we checked for the presence of publication bias after distinguishing among different journal subject areas and, once correcting for it, we find that the average effect of retirement on health outcomes is small and barely significant. We apply model averaging techniques to explore possible sources of heterogeneity and our results suggest that the different estimated effects can be explained by the differences in both health measurements and retirement schemes. |
| Keywords: | Retirement,health,meta-analysis,meta-regression,publication bias |
| JEL: | I10 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:897&r= |
| By: | Riddell, Chris; Riddell, William Craig |
| Abstract: | The Income Maintenance Experiments have received renewed attention due to growing international interest in a Basic Income. Proponents viewed a Negative Income Tax as a replacement for traditional welfare with stronger work incentives and reduced poverty. However, existing labor supply estimates for single parents are uniformly negative. We reassess the experimental evidence and find randomization failure in two NITs (Gary and Seattle). In Denver and Manitoba, we find a positive labor supply response for those on welfare prior to random assignment. Our results provide strong evidence that a NIT can increase work activity among single parents on welfare. |
| JEL: | C9 I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:36&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Côte d’Ivoire has shown strong resilience to the pandemic, owing to the authorities’ swift policy reaction and to a decade of sound macroeconomic policies, as well as the support of the international community including the IMF. |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/170&r= |
| By: | Peter Akioyamen (Western University); Yi Zhou Tang (Western University); Hussien Hussien (Western University) |
| Abstract: | Financial markets are of much interest to researchers due to their dynamic and stochastic nature. With their relations to world populations, global economies and asset valuations, understanding, identifying and forecasting trends and regimes are highly important. Attempts have been made to forecast market trends by employing machine learning methodologies, while statistical techniques have been the primary methods used in developing market regime switching models used for trading and hedging. In this paper we present a novel framework for the detection of regime switches within the US financial markets. Principal component analysis is applied for dimensionality reduction and the k-means algorithm is used as a clustering technique. Using a combination of cluster analysis and classification, we identify regimes in financial markets based on publicly available economic data. We display the efficacy of the framework by constructing and assessing the performance of two trading strategies based on detected regimes. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05801&r= |
| By: | Roberto Bonfatti; Giovanni Facchini; Alexander Tarasov; Gian Luca Tedeschi; Cecilia Testa |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role played by politics in shaping the Italian railway network, and its impact on long-run growth patterns. Examining a large state-planned railway expansion that took place during the second half of the 19th century in a recently unified country, we first study how both national and local political processes shaped the planned railway construction. Exploiting close elections, we show that a state-funded railway line is more likely to be planned for construction where the local representative is aligned with the government. Furthermore, the actual path followed by the railways was shaped by local pork-barreling, with towns supporting winning candidates more likely to see a railway crossing their territory. Finally, we explore the long-run effects of the network expansion on economic development. Employing population and economic censuses for the entire 20th century, we show that politics at a critical junction played a key role in explaning the long-run evolution of local economies. |
| Keywords: | Infractural Development, Political Economy |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2021-04&r= |
| By: | Manuel Serrano-Alarcón; Helena Hernández-Pizarro; Guillem López i Casasnovas; Catia Nicodemo |
| Abstract: | The healthcare systems of most European countries are currently operating under extreme levels of pressure. Part of this pressure is due to a rising demand for healthcare caused by an increase in comorbidities and life expectancies amongst the populations they serve. The implementation of a good system of Long-Term Care (LTC) could reduce this pressure if it promotes preventative habits and treatment adherence, or reduces age-related risks. In this study we aim to understand the role of LTC benefits in reducing healthcare use in primary and secondary care by exploring a detailed administrative database. Results show that a monthly LTC benefit of around 412 euros could reduce avoidable hospitalizations by 60% and also unscheduled "walk-in" patient visits by a half, with the majority relating to social exclusion cases. Furthermore, LTC benefits could promote preventive healthcare, improving access to healthcare services such as cataract surgery. These findings have important policy implications for the organization of the LTC and healthcare systems, suggesting that allocating resources to LTC might not only increase the welfare of LTC beneficiaries, but also help to contain the increasing costs of healthcare. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Vincent Montenero (CEFRES - Centre Français de Recherche en Sciences Sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - MEAE - Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères, CVUT - České Vysoké Učení Technické); Cristina Cazorzi (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Faced with an environment that is changing faster and faster, companies have long sought to encourage the almost automatic emergence of new approaches that can respond or even anticipate these changes. The development of creativity has become an essential theme. For more than 20 years, companies have been promoting the concept of agility at the same time as they attempted to extend creativity to all employees. Managers have been called upon to implement the corresponding actions. Our research, based on semi-structured interviews with 35 global managers, analyses several aspects of the implementation of the concepts. We looked particularly at what managers think of agility, how this concept relates to the efforts made to develop creativity, what they experienced, and the conditions for success. The analysis of the responses highlights the significant differences in perception, often linked to the functions performed in the company or to nationalities. Regardless of the value associated with agility, the interviewees agreed on the importance of the manager's role while directing it in three different directions. The discussions also identify a series of necessary, but not sufficient conditions for creativity to emerge. Implications for Central European audience: This paper does not deal with a problem specific to Central Europe. It is a general problem going beyond regional limits, as international management tends to use the same concepts everywhere. However, in its processing, we sought to interview several managers from this geographic area. In the second phase, we plan to improve the representativeness of managers from Central Europe to understand better what is specific to them. |
| Keywords: | Management,Agility,Creativity,Innovation,National collective identity |
| Date: | 2021–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03286310&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim D. Raheem (The EXCAS, Liege, Beligium); Kazeem B. Ajide (University of Lagos, Nigeria); Xuan V. Vo (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | The trilogy among economic growth, social capital (SC), and financial development is examined based on three hypotheses: first, SC is important in the finance-growth nexus. Second, there is a threshold effect of SC in the finance-growth nexus. Third, the SC-finance-growth trilogy depends on the countries' income level. Building dataset for 70 countries,someinteresting results were obtained: (i) the marginal effects of both SC and finance promotes economic growth at higher levels; (ii)there is evidence of a threshold effect of SC, as finance enhances more growth when SC is below the threshold level; (iii) higher-income countries tend not to benefit from the SC-finance-growth trilogy. These results suggest that the influence of SC on growth trajectory is exaggerated in the literature. The study recommends that policymakers should pursue other sources of economic growth aside SC, while ensuring that the level of SC does not deteriorate. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, Financial development, Social capital, and Threshold effect |
| JEL: | O43 G20 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/050&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Kyrgyz economy is highly dependent on remittances and foreign aid and does not have access to international capital markets. Inequality is relatively low, but poverty is widespread. The COVID crisis led to a sharp recession with output contracting by 8.6 percent in 2020, public debt rising by 16.5 percent of GDP to 68 percent, and the som depreciating by 19 percent against the US$. Under the assumption that the global pandemic begins to decisively recede this year, a rebound in growth is expected in 2021–22. However, significant uncertainty surrounds the baseline outlook and the recovery could be delayed if downside risks materialize. In the medium to long term, the main challenge is to create jobs for about 65,000 new jobseekers annually and to reduce labor out-migration. This will require deep structural reforms to transform the economy from a reliance on remittances to more diversified and private sector-led growth that is underpinned by higher investment and exports. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/174&r= |
| By: | Bertrand Achou; David Boisclair; Raquel Fonseca; Franca Glenzer; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | La pandémie de COVID-19 a été déclarée en mars 2020 par l’OMS, le chômage atteignant des niveaux historiques en avril 2020. Cette étude brosse un premier portrait de l’impact qu’a engendré la pandémie sur les finances des ménages du Québec, l'une des provinces les plus durement touchées en termes de nombre de cas et de chômage. L'étude permet également de comprendre comment les programmes gouvernementaux de prestations d'urgence ont pu aider les ménages à s’en sortir au début de la pandémie. Enfin, nous nous appuyons sur les données relatives aux attentes des répondants récoltées dans le cadre de l’enquête pour brosser un tableau de ce à quoi les ménages s’attendent pour le reste de 2020. |
| Keywords: | , COVID-19,Finances des ménages,Soutien du revenu |
| Date: | 2020–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2020rp-15&r= |
| By: | Upasana Ghosh |
| Abstract: | With the advancement of technology, data protection and data privacy have become a major concern. People are mostly occupied by the internet, computer and mobile phones nowadays. From buying medicines, cosmetics, grocery items, food, clothes etc, or finding a groom or bride, or managing finances, people are dependent on online apps or websites, which often lead to breach of private data if not used cautiously. Data protection is now under threat by the interference of strangers. Thus, in this study, an attempt has been made to explore the viewpoint of the netizens on online financial transactions and whether the existing cyber laws in India are giving sufficient protection to the right of privacy and confidentiality of the netizens. Key Words: : technology, internet, cyber security, financial frauds, law, netizens |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-38-09&r= |
| By: | Marta Ballatore (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019)); Lise Arena (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019)); Amel Attour (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019)) |
| Abstract: | This research focuses on the role of blockchain technology as a vector of inter-organizational trust in a reconfiguring ecosystem phase. Using qualitative analysis of data mainly from semistructured interviews, this study focuses primarily on the deployment of this emerging technology within a connected automotive ecosystem. Based on the notion of "trust-mediator technology", we show how blockchain technology is perceived as an institutional technology offering a new form of governance for all transactions and exchanges between the ecosystem actors. Although the functionalities offer automation to reduce the use of trusted third parties, preliminary results still show a strong commitment to current governance systems, such as regulatory and contractual frameworks. Ecosystem actors consider that complementarity between traditional institutional structures and decentralised blockchain is paramount for the success of any cooperation and collaboration on data on a connected vehicle. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain,trust,institutional technology,connected vehicle,ecosystem renewal |
| Date: | 2021–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03289866&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Colmer; Dajun Lin; Siying Liu; Jay Shimshack |
| Abstract: | Conventional wisdom suggests that marginal damages from particulate matter pollution are high in less-developed countries because they are highly polluted. Using administrative data on the universe of births and deaths, we explore birthweight and mortality effects of gestational particulate matter exposure in high-pollution yet high-income Hong Kong. The marginal effects of particulates on birthweight are large but we fail to detect an effect on neonatal mortality. We interpret our stark mortality results in a comparative analysis of pollution-mortality relationships across studies. We provide early evidence that marginal mortality damages from pollution are high in less-developed countries because they are less developed, not because they are more polluted. |
| JEL: | Q53 I15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9206&r= |
| By: | Bachir El Murr (Université Libanaise); Genane Youness (CEDRIC - Centre d'études et de recherche en informatique et communications - ENSIIE - Ecole Nationale Supérieure d'Informatique pour l'Industrie et l'Entreprise - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); Hala Gharib; Mayssaa Daher |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on the role the financial literacy features may play amid other determinant factors of individual success. A survey is conducted on a random sample of households' members, based on the individual perception as an assessment criteria of financial literacy status and career success. A non-parametric method, ctree, and a semi-parametric method, the multivariate logistic regression with interaction using random forest, are used. The two models are built to perform supervised learning classifications. They are validated through 10-fold cross validation technique to assure their capability to predict key factors of individual success, among which financial literacy features. It shows that personal and socioeconomic factors do not have any noticeable impact on professional success. Current educational system seems offering light insight on the professional perspectives of individuals. Financial literacy factors |
| Keywords: | financial literacy,individual success,ctree,multivariate logistic regression,Random Forest |
| Date: | 2021–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03295623&r= |
| By: | Anya V. Kleymenova; Rimmy E. Tomy |
| Abstract: | This paper finds that the disclosure of supervisory actions is associated with changes in regulators' enforcement behavior. Using a novel sample of enforcement decisions and orders (EDOs) and the setting of the 1989 Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act (FIRREA), which required the public disclosure of EDOs, we find that U.S. bank regulators issue more EDOs, intervene sooner, and rely more on publicly observable signals after the disclosure regime change. The content of EDOs also changes, with documents becoming more complex and boilerplate. Our results are stronger in counties with higher news circulation, indicating that disclosure plays an incremental role in regulators' changing behavior. We evaluate the main potentially confounding changes around FIRREA, including the S\\&L crisis and competition from thrifts, and find robust results. We also study changes in bank outcomes following the regime change and find that uninsured deposits decline at EDO banks, especially for banks with EDOs covered in the news. Finally, we observe that bank failure accelerates despite improvements in capital ratios and asset quality. |
| Keywords: | Disclosure; Enforcement actions; Regulatory incentives; Banking |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-49&r= |
| By: | Fayçal Sawadogo (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the price elasticity of mobile voice communication in developed and developing countries using quarterly operator data from 2000 to 2017. Using a dynamic panel model through system-GMM, the study finds that the demand price elasticity is higher for operators in developed countries. Controlling for cross-price elasticity with internet data prices reveals that voice communication is a substitute for internet data usage in developed countries. Another important finding is that, for operators in developing countries, the price elasticity decreases with market development level, whereas it increases for those in developed countries. Demand for mobile voice communication is thus more sensitive to price changes in the less penetrated markets in developing countries and the mature markets in developed countries. Furthermore, over time, price elasticity has decreased across operators in developing countries, highlighting the need for updating regulatory frameworks for the telecommunications sector to reflect the sector's various developments. In addition, when formulating regulatory policies, some important economic factors, such as income level and domestic market characteristics, should be considered to avoid losses in consumer welfare. The high estimated price elasticities suggest that operators do not have an obvious interest in engaging in collusive behavior that would hinder competition. Moreover, since there is no differential effect due to operators' positions or market shares, asymmetric regulation of the dominant operators should be avoided. |
| Keywords: | Econometric demand model,Dynamic panel analysis,Telecommunications services,Comparative analysis |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03293392&r= |
| By: | Sebastian Edwards; Luis Cabezas |
| Abstract: | We use detailed data for Iceland to examine two often-neglected aspects of the “exchange rate pass-through” problem. First, we investigate whether the pass-through coefficient varies with the degree of “international tradability” of goods. Second, we analyze if the pass-through coefficient depends on the monetary policy framework. We consider 12 disaggregated price indexes in Iceland for 2003-2019, a period that includes Iceland’s banking and currency crisis of 2008. We find that the pass-through declined around the time Iceland reformed its “flexible inflation targeting,” and that the coefficients are significantly higher for tradable than for nontradable goods. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F3 F41 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp85&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The pandemic interrupted a prolonged growth spell that made the Dominican Republic one of the most dynamic economies in the region amid strong growth, macroeconomic stability and improved social outcomes. This built resilience to the shock—including by maintaining access to markets—and allowed a decisive policy response to address the health emergency, support growth, and protect the vulnerable. |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/169&r= |
| By: | Joao, Igor Custodio; Lucas, André; Schaumburg, Julia; Schwaab, Bernd |
| Abstract: | We propose a dynamic clustering model for uncovering latent time-varying group structures in multivariate panel data. The model is dynamic in three ways. First, the cluster location and scale matrices are time-varying to track gradual changes in cluster characteristics over time. Second, all units can transition between clusters based on a Hidden Markov model (HMM). Finally, the HMM’s transition matrix can depend on lagged time-varying cluster distances as well as economic covariates. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the units can be classified reliably in a variety of challenging settings. Incorporating dynamics in the cluster composition proves empirically important in an a study of 299 European banks between 2008Q1 and 2018Q2. We find that approximately 3% of banks transition per quarter on average. Transition probabilities are in part explained by differences in bank profitability, suggesting that low interest rates can lead to long-lasting changes in financial industry structure. JEL Classification: G21, C33 |
| Keywords: | bank business models, dynamic clustering, Hidden Markov Model, panel data, score-driven dynamics |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212577&r= |
| By: | Hernan Bejarano (Center of Economics Research and Teaching, Economics Division (CIDE), Mexico.); Joris Gillet (Middlesex University, Business School.); Ismael Rodriguez-Lara (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.) |
| Abstract: | We experimentally investigate the effect of a negative endowment shock that can cause inequality in a trust game. Our goal is to assess whether different causes of inequality have different effects on trust and trustworthiness. In our trust game, we vary whether there is inequality (in favor of the second mover) or not and whether the inequality results from a random negative shock (i.e., the outcome of a die roll) or exists from the outset. Our findings suggest that inequality causes firstmovers to send more of their endowment and second-movers to return more. However, we do not find support for the hypothesis that the cause of the inequality matters. Behavior after the occurrence of a random shock is not significantly different from the behavior in treatments where the inequality exists from the outset. Our results highlight the need to be cautious when interpreting the effects on trust and trustworthiness of negative random shocks in the field (such as natural disasters). Our results suggest that these effects are primarily driven by the inequality caused by the shock and not by any of the additional characteristics of the shock, like saliency or uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Trust game, endowment heterogeneity, random shocks, inequality aversion, experimental economics. |
| JEL: | C91 D02 D03 D69 |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gra:wpaper:21/06&r= |
| By: | Delzeit, Ruth; Heimann, Tobias; Schünemann, Franziska; Söder, Mareike |
| Abstract: | The replacement of fossil resources with renewable biomass in a bioeconomy is seen as a major contribution to climate change mitigation. This transformation will affect all members of society, making it crucial to consider the views of different stakeholders to ensure a socially acceptable transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy. To explore potential outcomes of bioeconomy strategies assuming different future pathways, a scenario analysis is a tool to inform decision-makers about policy impacts and trade-offs. The inter- and transdisciplinary research project 'BioNex - The future of the biomass nexus' is the first project to develop bioeconomy scenarios together with stakeholders from politics, industry, and civil society in an iterative co-design process. As a result, three storylines describing diverging potential global futures are developed and quantified: Towards sustainability, business as usual, and towards resource depletion. The futures are driven by different assumptions on climate policy, cropland expansion, productivity growth in agriculture, prices of fossil energy, and consumption behaviour. Additionally, in the co-design process, three bioeconomy policies are developed: policy as usual, stronger development of the bioeconomy, and no policies. Besides presenting the results of the stakeholder workshops, this paper evaluates the strengths and shortcomings of a stakeholder approach in terms of policy-oriented research. According to the experience made within this study, it provides valuable insights for researchers and funding authorities they can use to optimise the employment of stakeholder-based research approaches. |
| Keywords: | Co-design,scenario analysis,bioeconomy,modelling framework |
| JEL: | Q16 C83 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2188&r= |
| By: | Lavy, Victor (Hebrew University, Jerusalem); Schlosser, Analia (Tel Aviv University); Shany, Adi (Tel Aviv University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of immigration from a developing country to a developed country during pregnancy on offspring's outcomes. We focus on intermediate and long-term outcomes, using quasi-experimental variation created by the immigration of Ethiopian Jews to Israel in May 1991. Individuals conceived before immigration experienced dramatic changes in their environmental conditions at different stages of prenatal development depending on their gestational age at migration. We find that females whose mothers immigrated at an earlier gestational age have lower grade repetition and dropout rates in high school. They also show better cognitive performance during primary and middle school and in the high school matriculation study program. As adults, they have higher post-secondary schooling, employment rates, and earnings than those whose mothers migrated at a later stage of pregnancy. |
| Keywords: | prenatal, immigration, human capital |
| JEL: | I24 I25 I15 J15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14576&r= |
| By: | Benjamin Cabanes (IHEIE - Institut des Hautes Etudes pour l’Innovation et l’Entrepreneuriat (IHEIE) - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | Le brainstorming s'est imposé dans toutes les organisations comme la méthode par excellence pour générer de nouvelles idées créatives et innovantes. Pourtant, il serait bien moins efficace qu'il n'y paraît. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03254581&r= |
| By: | Fakhoury, Anthony (Lebanese American University); Fakih, Ali (Lebanese American University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new insights into the role of governments and businesses in responding to pandemics in the Arab region. It uses the COVID-19 World Bank Enterprise Survey Follow-up dataset to examine the degree of business endurance in Jordan and Morocco amid the pandemic. Relying on the probit regressions, the empirical findings suggest that businesses that assumed resilient strategies such as establishing an online presence and converting production are more likely to remain open, whereas firms that adopted remote working are less likely to survive. This is due to the unpreparedness of firms and the limited availability of technologies in Jordan and Morocco for teleworking. Further, firms that expected future government supports are more likely to report closure. Finally, our results do not provide evidence that government grants and measures and the level of online sales are statistically significant in our model. The model used also offers further testable hypotheses for future research to comprehend the significance of the response of businesses to unprecedented shocks. |
| Keywords: | business continuity, business response, government intervention, remote working, COVID-19, Jordan, Morocco |
| JEL: | H11 H12 O53 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14583&r= |
| By: | Raúl Gutiérrez-Meave; Juan Rosellón; Luis Sarmiento |
| Abstract: | The analysis of local environmental policies is essential when evaluating the consistency of national public policies vis-à-vis the compliance of global agreements to reduce climate change. This study explores one of these policies; the 2021 Mexican reform to change electric power dispatch from a marginal-cost-based to a command and control physical system prioritizing power generation from the state power company. The new law forces the dispatch of the state company power facilities before private power producers. We use the GENeSYS-MOD techno-economic model to determine the reform’s effect on the power system’s generation mix, cost structure, and anthropogenic emissions. For this, we optimize the model under three distinct scenarios; a business-as-usual scenario with no changes to the merit order, a model with the new physical order dispatch, and an additional case where in addition to the shift to the physical dispatch, we reduce the price of fuel oil below natural gas prices to simulate the current behavior of the power company. It is relevant to note that we optimize the energy system without any assumption regarding renewable targets or climate goals because of political uncertainty and the need of pinpoint the effect of the merit order change while avoiding possible variations in the state-space arising from other constraints. Our results show that by 2050, the new dispatch rule increases the market power of the state company to 99% of total generation and decreases the share of renewable technologies in the generation mix from 72% to 51%. Additionally, cumulative power sector emissions increase by 563 Megatons of CO2, which with the current cost of carbon in the European Emissions Trading System translates to around 36 billion Euros |
| Keywords: | Merit Order Rules; Power Sector; Energy Reform; Mexico; GENeSYS-MOD |
| JEL: | Q42 Q47 Q48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1955&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/171&r= |
| By: | Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School) |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/18&r= |
| By: | Juan Carlos Torres Palacio; josé Barros Padilla; Milagros Villasmil Molero; Cecilia Socorro González |
| Keywords: | Estímulos tributarios, Desarrollo productivo, Ciencia, Tecnología |
| Date: | 2020–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000563:019367&r= |
| By: | Sarah Auster; Nicola Pavoni |
| Abstract: | We study the delegation problem between a principal and an agent, who not only has better information about the performance of the available actions but also superior awareness of the set of actions that are actually feasible. We provide conditions under which the agent finds it optimal to leave the principal unaware of relevant options. By doing so, the agent increases the principal's cost of distorting the agent's choices and increases the principal's willingness to grant him higher information rents. We further show that the principal may use the option of renegotiation as a tool to implement actions that are not describable to her at the contracting stage. If the agent renegotiates, his proposal signals information about the payoff state. We demonstrate that limited awareness of actions improves communication in such games: the principal makes a coarser inference from the recommendations of the privately informed agent and accepts a larger number of his proposals. |
| Keywords: | Unawareness, optimal delegation, strategic disclosure |
| JEL: | D82 D83 D86 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_256v2&r= |
| By: | Feld, Lars P.; Fuest, Clemens; Haucap, Justus; Schweitzer, Heike; Wieland, Volker; Wigger, Berthold U. |
| Abstract: | The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently conducting a review of its monetary policy strategy. The last formal review took place in 2003. Now the focus is on the extent to which this strategy has contributed in recent years to fulfill the mandate set out in the Treaties of the European Union and whether certain elements need to be adjusted. Against this background, the Kronberger Kreis, the academic advisory board of the Stiftung Marktwirtschaft (Market Economy Foundation), examines whether the ECB's monetary policy strategy still holds promise for success, whether its mandate should be reinterpreted and how the use of specific instruments should be assessed. In its analysis, the Kronberger Kreis draws on the experience of the financial crisis, the euro debt crisis and the coronavirus crisis and argues that greater attention should be paid to the side effects and proportionality of monetary policy measures. The central banks of the Eurosystem are now the largest creditors of the member states. Fiscal dominance of monetary policy should be avoided. The ECB's hierarchical mandate prioritizing price stability should not be called into question. The envisaged numerical target for consumer price inflation of below, but close to, two percent remains reasonable. However, the ECB should also consider other measures of inflation in its decisions and their communication. In addition, the ECB should rely more strongly on quantitative benchmarks (interest rate rules, money supply growth). The transparency of monetary policy could be significantly increased, for example, by publishing surveys and forecasts of the ECB's Governing Council. In principle, all measures must take into account the need to strengthen the independence of the ECB and the stability of the monetary union. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:smwkro:67e&r= |
| By: | Elena Rusticelli; David Turner |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 related travel restrictions, including complete border closures, have been one of the first containment measures to be implemented by many countries and have been continuously adjusted according to the epidemiological situation in departure and destination countries. Despite some easing since mid-2020, the level of such restrictions remain high, especially in Europe and North America. The economic costs of restrictions on international travel are apparent in those sectors most directly impacted, as documented here. However, given their important interlinkages, a uniquely sectoral focus is likely to underestimate the broader macroeconomic costs, which are also assessed, albeit with less precision. The importance of these linkages is borne out by the fact that those OECD countries with the largest travel and tourism sectors -- such as Greece, Iceland, Portugal, Mexico and Spain -- are among those that have experienced the largest falls in GDP in 2020 . Indeed, the pre-crisis size of the travel and tourism sector is found to better explain cross-country differences in GDP growth in 2020, than exposure to any of the other sectors considered most vulnerable to COVID-19, or the average stringency of wider country lockdown measures during 2020. These estimates serve as a means to gauge the potential economic benefits of a rapid return to more normal travel arrangements facilitated by the implementation and agreements around testing and vaccination protocols. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, macroeconomic costs, Restrictions to international mobility |
| JEL: | F2 F5 J6 R4 Z3 |
| Date: | 2021–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1678-en&r= |
| By: | Cantó, Olga; Figari, Francesco; Fiorio, Carlo V.; Kuypers, Sarah; Marchal, Sarah; Romaguera-de-la-Cruz, Marina; Tasseva, Iva V.; Verbist, Gerlinde |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact on household incomes of the COVID-19 pandemic and governments’ policy responses in April 2020 in four large and severely hit EU countries: Belgium, Italy, Spain and the UK. We provide comparative evidence on the level of relative and absolute welfare resilience at the onset of the pandemic, by creating counterfactual scenarios using the European tax-benefit model EUROMOD combined with COVID-19-related household surveys and timely labor market data. We find that income poverty increased in all countries due to the pandemic while inequality remained broadly the same. Differences in the impact of policies across countries arose from four main sources: the asymmetric dimension of the shock by country, the different protection offered by each tax-benefit system, the diverse design of discretionary measures and differences in the household level circumstances and living arrangements of individuals at risk of income loss in each country. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; cross-country comparison; household incomes; income protection; tax-benefit microsimulation; coronavirus |
| JEL: | D31 H55 I32 |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111146&r= |
| By: | Rytis Kazakevicius; Aleksejus Kononovicius; Bronislovas Kaulakys; Vygintas Gontis |
| Abstract: | In the face of the upcoming 30th anniversary of econophysics, we review our contributions and other related works on the modeling of the long-range memory phenomenon in physical, economic, and other social complex systems. Our group has shown that the long-range memory phenomenon can be reproduced using various Markov processes, such as point processes, stochastic differential equations and agent-based models. Reproduced well enough to match other statistical properties of the financial markets, such as return and trading activity distributions and first-passage time distributions. Research has lead us to question whether the observed long-range memory is a result of actual long-range memory process or just a consequence of non-linearity of Markov processes. As our most recent result we discuss the long-range memory of the order flow data in the financial markets and other social systems from the perspective of the fractional L\`{e}vy stable motion. We test widely used long-range memory estimators on discrete fractional L\`{e}vy stable motion represented by the ARFIMA sample series. Our newly obtained results seem indicate that new estimators of self-similarity and long-range memory for analyzing systems with non-Gaussian distributions have to be developed. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02506&r= |
| By: | Lloyd, S.; Manuel, E.; Panchev, K. |
| Abstract: | We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of domestic GDP growth. Within a quantile regression setup, we propose a method to parsimoniously account for foreign vulnerabilities using bilateral-exposure weights when assessing downside macroeconomic risks. Using a panel dataset of advanced economies, we show that tighter foreign financial conditions and faster foreign credit-to-GDP growth are associated with a more severe left tail of domestic GDP growth, even when controlling for domestic indicators. The inclusion of foreign indicators significantly improves estimates of ‘GDP-at-Risk’, a summary measure of downside risks. In turn, this yields time-varying estimates of higher GDP growth moments that are interpretable and provide advanced warnings of crisis episodes. Decomposing historical estimates of GDP-at-Risk into domestic and foreign sources, we show that foreign shocks are a key driver of domestic macroeconomic tail risks. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, GDP-at-Risk, International spillovers, Local projections, Quantile regression, Tail risk |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F30 F41 F44 G01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2156&r= |
| By: | Marc Piopiunik |
| Abstract: | To investigate the effects of reducing the intensity of tracking, this study exploits reforms across German states which combined the two lower secondary school tracks, sometimes additionally offering the possibility to acquire a university entrance qualification. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that reducing the tracking intensity significantly improves students’ reading achievement. Lower-performing student groups – boys, students born abroad, and students from lower socio-economic status families – benefited in particular. In contrast, we find no effects on acquiring a middle school degree, attending the most academic track, or repeating a grade. |
| Keywords: | school tracking, student performance, NEPS |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9214&r= |
| By: | Gündüz, Yalin; Pelizzon, Loriana; Schneider, Michael; Subrahmanyam, Marti G. |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of transparency on liquidity in OTC markets. We do so by providing an analysis of liquidity in a corporate bond market without trade transparency (Germany), and comparing our findings to a market with full posttrade disclosure (the U.S.). We employ a unique regulatory dataset of transactions of German financial institutions from 2008 until 2014 to find that: First, overall trading activity is much lower in the German market than in the U.S. Second, similar to the U.S., the determinants of German corporate bond liquidity are in line with search theories of OTC markets. Third, surprisingly, frequently traded German bonds have transaction costs that are 39-61 bp lower than a matched sample of bonds in the U.S. Our results support the notion that, while market liquidity is generally higher in transparent markets, a subset of bonds could be more liquid in more opaque markets because of investors "crowding" their demand into a small number of more actively traded securities. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Bonds,WpHG,Liquidity,Transparency,OTC markets |
| JEL: | G15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:212021&r= |
| By: | Dawud Ansari; Mariza Montes de Oca Leon; Helen Schlüter |
| Abstract: | Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a foreign military intervention against the Houthi movement, which took over major parts of Yemen. The intervention, which manifests mainly in airstrikes, has attracted widespread controversy in media and politics as well as a large body of (qualitative) academic literature discussing its background and ways to escape it. Complementary to these efforts and connecting to the literature on oil and conflict, this study provides unique quantitative insights into what drives the extent of military interaction. We use a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse the interactions between Saudi airstrikes in Yemen, gains of the Houthi movement on Yemeni ground, their attacks on Saudi Arabian soil, and crude oil prices. Our approach builds on high-resolution data from the Yemen Data Project and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Our results show not only that the airstrike campaign has been factually impotent to repulse the Houthi movement but also that the movement’s expansion in Yemen has not driven Saudi airstrikes. These findings draw both suitability and justification of the intervention further into question. Moreover, although the data fail to show that oil price levels drive the developments, our model identifies oil price volatility as a determinant for the airstrikes. However, the intervention has, in turn, no significant effect on oil markets. Besides adding to the academic discourse on oil and conflict, our results have implications for energy and climate policy: a coordinated transition might not deteriorate regional security, while uncertainty and fluctuations can increase conflict potential. |
| Keywords: | Saudi Arabia; Yemen war; VAR model; oil prices; military conflict; regime legitimacy |
| JEL: | C32 F51 Q34 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1959&r= |
| By: | Shan Huang; Hannes Ullrich |
| Abstract: | Human antibiotic consumption is considered the main driver of antibiotic resistance. Reducing human antibiotic consumption without compromising health care quality poses one of the most important global health policy challenges. A crucial condition for designing effective policies is to identify who drives antibiotic treatment decisions, physicians or patient demand. We measure the causal effect of physician practice style on antibiotic intake and health outcomes exploiting variation in patient-physician relations due to physician exits in general practice in Denmark. We estimate that physician practice style accounts for 53 to 56 percent of between-clinic differences in all antibiotic consumption, and for 74 to 81 percent in the consumption of second-line antibiotic drugs. We find little evidence that low prescribing styles adversely affect health outcomes measured as preventable hospitalizations due to infections. Our findings suggest that policies to curb antibiotic resistance are most effective when aimed at improving physician decision-making, in particular when they target high prescribers. High prescribing practice styles are positively associated with physician age and negatively with staff size and the availability of diagnostic tools, suggesting that improvements in the quality of diagnostic information is an important path to improved decisions. |
| Keywords: | antibiotic prescribing, practice styles, general practitioners |
| JEL: | I11 J44 I12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9204&r= |
| By: | Philippe Bich (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julien Fixary (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We determine the topological structure of the graph of pairwise stable weighted networks. As an application, we obtain that for large classes of polynomial payoff functions, there exists generically an odd number of pairwise stable networks. This improves the results in Bich and Morhaim ([5]) or in Herings and Zhan ([14]), and can be applied to many existing models, as for example to the public good provision model of Bramoullé and Kranton ([8]), the information transmission model of Calvó-Armengol ([9]), the two-way flow model of Bala and Goyal ([2]), or Zenou-Ballester's key-player model ([3]). |
| Keywords: | Weighted Networks,Pairwise Stable Networks Correspondence,Generic oddness |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03287524&r= |
| By: | Admkew Haile Mengesha |
| Abstract: | In fiercely competing business world the successes or failures of the organizations depends on the employees competency to attract and retain customers. Competent employees are the key to deliver excellent quality services to attract and retain customers, the main objective of this study is to assess the effects of employees competencies on customer satisfaction in private organizations in eastern Ethiopia. Comprehensive sampling techniques used to select sample of employees and convenience sampling techniques were used for customers. Data for the study were collected through selfadministered questionnaires distributed to 400 customers and 200 Employees for 40 private organizations. The questionnaire for employees was structured around six employees competencies areas such as business understanding, result orientation, customer service, team work, interpersonal communication and personal effectiveness. The questionnaire for customers was designed to collect data supplementary to the data collected from employees and data related to competency of employees that might not be directly answered by them. The inter-correlations among the dimensions of employees competencies and customer satisfactions have demonstrated significantly positively correlated. Multiple regression analysis were carried out to test the relations between the dimensions of employee competencies and customer satisfaction The study shows that there is a significant positive relationship between employees competency and customer satisfaction. The research identifies basic competency deficiencies of Ethiopian employees in handling customers’ and has managerial implication of how to staff the work force with the skills, area of knowledge, attitudes and abilities that distinguish high performer to deliver quality service Key Words: Employees competency, Customers satisfaction , Private organizations |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-07&r= |
| By: | Bobeica, Elena; Ciccarelli, Matteo; Vansteenkiste, Isabel |
| Abstract: | The link between US labor cost and price inflation has weakened notably over the past three decades. In this paper we document this decline and analyse potential contributing factors. We consider four important trends that have shaped the US economy of late: (i) improved anchoring of inflation expectations; (ii) the changing constellation of shocks hitting the economy; (iii) increased trade integration and (iv) rising firm market power. We find that the improved anchoring of inflation expectations has played a particularly relevant role but also that the latter two trends offer promising avenues to understand the decline in pass-through from labor cost to price inflation. Our results also bring supportive evidence to the view taken by the FED in the context of its monetary policy strategy review that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an outbreak of inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E24, E31 |
| Keywords: | inflation, labor costs, pass-through, structural VAR, United States |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212583&r= |
| By: | Bauer, Michal (Charles University, Prague); Cahlíková, Jana (Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance); Chytilová, Julie (Charles University, Prague); Roland, Gerald (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides experimental evidence showing that members of a majority group systematically shift punishment on innocent members of an ethnic minority. We develop a new incentivized task, the Punishing the Scapegoat Game, to measure how injustice affecting a member of one's own group shapes punishment of an unrelated bystander ("a scapegoat"). We manipulate the ethnic identity of the scapegoats and study interactions between the majority group and the Roma minority in Slovakia. We find that when no harm is done, there is no evidence of discrimination against the ethnic minority. In contrast, when a member of one's own group is harmed, the punishment "passed" on innocent individuals more than doubles when they are from the minority, as compared to when they are from the dominant group. These results illuminate how individualized tensions can be transformed into a group conflict, dragging minorities into conflicts in a way that is completely unrelated to their behavior. |
| Keywords: | punishment, minority groups, inter-group conflict, discrimination, scapegoating, lab-in-field experiments |
| JEL: | C93 D74 D91 J15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14608&r= |
| By: | Wesley H. Holliday; Mikayla Kelley |
| Abstract: | There is an extensive literature in social choice theory studying the consequences of weakening the assumptions of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem. Much of this literature suggests that there is no escape from Arrow-style impossibility theorems unless one drastically violates the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA). In this paper, we present a more positive outlook. We propose a model of comparing candidates in elections, which we call the Advantage-Standard (AS) model. The requirement that a collective choice rule (CCR) be rationalizable by the AS model is in the spirit of but weaker than IIA; yet it is stronger than what is known in the literature as weak IIA (two profiles alike on x, y cannot have opposite strict social preferences on x and y). In addition to motivating violations of IIA, the AS model makes intelligible violations of another Arrovian assumption: the negative transitivity of the strict social preference relation P. While previous literature shows that only weakening IIA to weak IIA or only weakening negative transitivity of P to acyclicity still leads to impossibility theorems, we show that jointly weakening IIA to AS rationalizability and weakening negative transitivity of P leads to no such impossibility theorems. Indeed, we show that several appealing CCRs are AS rationalizable, including even transitive CCRs. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01134&r= |
| By: | putri, Aulia ananda |
| Abstract: | Artikel ini berisi tentang pasar modal yang berlandaskan syariah Islam, yang berkaitan tentang : Upaya untuk mendeskripskian secara analitis saham terbatas dan pasar modal secara syariah pespektif. Pasar modal yaitu salah satu alternatif sumber pendanaan bagi perusahaan sekaligus sebagai sarana investasi bagi pemodal. Implementasi dari hal tersebut adalah perusahaan dapat memperoleh pendanaan melalui penerbitan efek yang bersifat ekuitas atatu surat utang. Disamping itu pemodal juga dapat melakukan investasi di pasar modal dengan membeli bagian-bagian tersebut. Oleh karna itu,tulisan ini mencoba menguraiakan implementasinya di sektor keuangan di negara-negara Islam,ini menelusuri sejarah perkembangan saham dan pasar modal. |
| Date: | 2021–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ngkuv&r= |
| By: | Philipp Krueger (University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI); Swiss Finance Institute; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI); University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management); Zacharias Sautner (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)); Dragon Yongjun Tang (The University of Hong Kong - Faculty of Business and Economics); Rui Zhong (The University of Western Australia - UWA Business School) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of mandatory ESG disclosure around the world using a novel dataset. Mandatory ESG disclosure increases the availability and quality of ESG reporting, especially among firms with low ESG performance. Mandatory ESG reporting has in turn beneficial effects on firm’s information environment: analysts’ earnings forecasts become more accurate and less dispersed after ESG disclosure becomes mandatory. On the real side, negative ESG incidents become less likely, and stock price crash risk declines, after mandatory ESG disclosure is enacted. These findings suggest that mandatory ESG disclosure has beneficial informational and real effects. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability reports, ESG reporting, Nonfinancial information, ESG incidents |
| JEL: | G14 G15 G18 G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2144&r= |
| By: | Daniel Keniston; Bradley J. Larsen; Shengwu Li; J.J. Prescott; Bernardo S. Silveira; Chuan Yu |
| Abstract: | This paper uses detailed data on sequential offers from seven vastly different real-world bargaining settings to document a robust pattern: agents favor offers that split the difference between the two most recent offers on the table. Our settings include negotiations for used cars, insurance injury claims, a TV game show, auto rickshaw rides, housing, international trade tariffs, and online retail. We demonstrate that this pattern can arise in a perfect Bayesian equilibrium of an alternating-offer game with two-sided incomplete information, but this equilibrium is far from unique. We then provide a robust-inference argument to explain why agents may view the two most recent offers as corresponding to the potential surplus. Split-the-difference offers under this weaker, robust inference can then be viewed as fair. We present a number of other patterns in each data setting that point to split-the-difference offers as a strong social norm, whether in high-stakes or low-stakes negotiations. |
| JEL: | C7 C78 D9 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29111&r= |
| By: | Calvo, Angela Garcia |
| Abstract: | Generating sustainable growth and reaching advanced economy status depend on the ability of countries to host local, globally competitive firms in skill-, capital-, and knowledge-intensive industries. However, few countries succeed. This paper asks whether state activism is necessary to foster economic transformation at high levels of complexity in the globalisation era, and if so, what strategies are effective. Using evidence from Spain's and Korea's ICT industries since the 1980s, the paper argues that state-firm coordination remains necessary to reach the efficiency frontier in complex industries. However, coordination has shifted from hierarchical structures to nonhierarchical models in which states and firms develop mutually agreed-upon working rules to reach beneficial outcomes. Nonhierarchical coordination may involve adopting different institutional configurations, depending on the identities and capabilities of firms and national governments and on the nature of linkages with other nations. These linkages may lead to alternative pathways to upgrading and diverse productive specialisations. |
| Keywords: | business-government relationships; industrial upgrading; late development; Political economy; state activism; EU747943 |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103929&r= |
| By: | Han Lin Shang; Fearghal Kearney |
| Abstract: | This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal component analysis generally improves out-of-sample forecast accuracy. More specifically, the dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement. Our models lead to multiple instances of statistically significant improvements in forecast accuracy for daily EUR-USD, EUR-GBP, and EUR-JPY implied volatility surfaces across various maturities, when benchmarked against established methods. A stylised trading strategy is also employed to demonstrate the potential economic benefits of our proposed approach. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14026&r= |
| By: | Henning, Christian H. C. A.; Diaz, Daniel; Lendewig, Andrea; Petri, Svetlana |
| Abstract: | Even in countries with well functioning democracies, not all people with the right to vote in a presidential election decide to cast a vote. In order to study the importance of abstention in presidential elections in Africa and Latin America, data from Senegal and Honduras was analyzed. These countries have experienced a decline in the voter turnout over the past elections, which means that the party systems are somehow failing to engage voters in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to understand how people choose a certain party or candidate, as well as, how they decide to either vote or abstain. Moreover, we are looking to determine whether non-voters could motivate the governments to design and implement efficient policies. To achieve this, we estimated nested multinomial logit models including the alternative Abstention. Then, to evaluate government performance, we derived indicators for accountability and capture. Also, to determine the optimal policy positions for the governmental parties, First Order Condition (FOC) and Second Order Condition (SOC) were estimated for different issues. |
| Keywords: | probabilistic voter model,capture,accountability,agricultural policy,Africa,Latin America |
| JEL: | Q18 C31 C35 C38 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202013&r= |
| By: | Stefano Bosi (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay, Université Paris-Saclay); Cuong Le Van (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPAG Business School, TIMAS - Institute of Mathematics and Applied Science, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ngoc-Sang Pham (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie) |
| Abstract: | We show that both real indeterminacy and asset price bubble may appear in an infinite-horizon exchange economy with infinitely lived agents and an imperfect financial market. We clarify how the asset structure and heterogeneity (in terms of preferences and endowments) affect the existence and the dynamics of asset price bubbles as well as the equilibrium indeterminacy. Moreover, this paper bridges the literature on bubbles in models with infinitely lived agents and that in overlapping generations models (Tirole, 1985). |
| Keywords: | in- tertemporal equilibrium,borrowing constraint,real indeterminacy,asset price bubble |
| Date: | 2020–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02993656&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Hoang (Örebro University School of Business); Nguyen, Trong-Nghia (The University of Sydney Business School); Tran, Minh-Ngoc (The University of Sydney Business School) |
| Abstract: | Stock returns are considered as a convolution of two random processes that are the return innovation and the volatility innovation. The correlation of these two processes tends to be negative which is the so-called leverage effect. In this study, we propose a dynamic leverage stochastic volatility (DLSV) model where the correlation structure between the return innovation and the volatility innovation is assumed to follow a generalized autoregressive score (GAS) process. We founnd that the leverage effect is reinforced in the market downturn period and weakened in the market upturn period. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic leverage; GAS; stochastic volatility (SV) |
| JEL: | C11 C52 C58 |
| Date: | 2021–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2021_014&r= |
| By: | Busch, Ramona; Littke, Helge; Memmel, Christoph; Niederauer, Simon |
| Abstract: | Using data from a quantitative survey of German banks at three points in time (2015, 2017 and 2019), we analyze the impact of changes in the interest rate level on banks' net interest income and the countermeasures they take. A decline in the interest rate level has a more negative impact on net interest income, the longer the decline lasts and the lower the interest rate level is. This impact softens with increasing risk of changes in the present value of banking books. We do not find that banks generally increase their risks following a drop in income. However, poorly capitalized banks subsequently increase the credit risk of their bond portfolio. After a fall in operational income, banks increase their fee and commission income and reduce their costs. In addition, banks tend to extend their mortgage lending after a drop in their interest income. |
| Keywords: | Banks' net interest margin,Fee and commission income,Low interest rate environment,Risk-taking,Administrative costs |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:232021&r= |
| By: | Felbermayr, Gabriel; Gans, Steffen; Mahlkow, Hendrik; Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the vulnerability of international value chains in the face of global shocks. This has triggered a political discussion regarding a possible reshoring of vulnerable supply chains back home. The aim is to reduce dependencies on foreign suppliers and thus improve crisis resilience of the domestic economy. The debate is also rooted in the growing dependence on Asian suppliers and the colliding political and ideological systems between China and the West. Unilateral decoupling of the EU from China (a doubling of trade costs) would reduce real income in the EU on average by 0.8 percent. In terms of GDP in 2019, this equals a permanent loss in real income of 131.4 bn EUR. Should China retaliate, real income would fall by 1.0 percent (170.3 bn EUR). With its extremely interconnected economy, real income in Germany would even decline by 1.4 percent (48.4 bn EUR). China would also lose from such a trade war, with real income declining by 1.3 percent. Should the EU increase its trade barriers against all its non-European trading partners, real income in the Union would fall by 3.5 percent or 584.3 bn EUR in case of a unilateral increase and by 5.3 percent or 873.1 bn EUR in case the rest of the world responds by also raising trade barriers. |
| Keywords: | European Union,China,Germany,Trade,Global Value Chains,Europäische Union,Deutschland,Handel,Globale Wertschöpfungsketten |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:153&r= |
| By: | Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | The global economy remained on track in the first months of 2021, despite surging covid-19 infections and renewed containment measures in many countries. The impact of the pandemic was largely confined to the service sectors. Meanwhile, the pronounced upturn in industrial production and global trade continued until spring, but has started to falter as a result of supply bottlenecks and logistical problems. The tensions in the global economic fabric are reflected not least in sharp price increases for raw materials, intermediate goods and transportation services, which have already contributed to a noticeable rise in consumer prices. Continued highly expansionary monetary policy and considerable fiscal policy stimulus, notably in the United States, but also in the euro zone, are fuelling economic activity this year and next. We expect global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) to increase by 6.7 percent in 2021 and by 4.8 percent in 2022, which is still substantially above medium-term trend growth. In view of the high economic momentum and higher inflation risks, we expect the Federal Reserve to start tightening earlier than previously expected. This is associated with the risk of a significant deterioration in financing conditions going forward, particularly for some emerging economies |
| Keywords: | Americas,Asia,Business Cycle World,China,Emerging Markets & Developing Countries,Europe,USA |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:79&r= |
| By: | Mary A. Burke; Ali K. Ozdagli |
| Abstract: | Recent research offers mixed results concerning the relationship between inflation expectations and consumption, using qualitative measures of readiness to spend. We revisit this question using survey panel data of actual spending from the U.S. between 2009 and 2012 that also allows us to control for household heterogeneity. We find that durables spending increases with expected inflation only for selected types of households while nondurables spending does not respond to expected inflation. Moreover, spending decreases with expected unemployment. These results imply a limited stimulating effect of inflation expectations on aggregate consumption, which could be reversed if inflation and unemployment expectations move together. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations; survey data; durable and nondurable goods consumption |
| JEL: | D12 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:92968&r= |
| By: | Gavazza, Alessandro; Lanteri, Andrea |
| Abstract: | This article studies equilibrium dynamics in consumer durable goods markets after aggregate credit shocks. We introduce two novel features into a general-equilibrium model of durable consumption with heterogeneous households facing idiosyncratic income risk and borrowing constraints: (1) indivisible durable goods are vertically differentiated in their quality and (2) trade on secondary markets at market-clearing prices, with households endogenously choosing when to trade or scrap their durables. The model highlights a new transmission mechanism for macroeconomic shocks and successfully matches several empirical patterns that we document using data on U.S. car markets around the Great Recession. After a tightening of the borrowing limit, debt-constrained households postpone the decision to scrap and upgrade their low-quality cars, which depresses mid-quality car prices. In turn, this effect reduces wealthy households’ incentives to replace their mid-quality cars with high-quality ones, thereby decreasing new-car sales. We further use our framework to evaluate targeted fiscal stimulus policies such as the Car Allowance Rebate System in 2009 (“Cash for Clunkers”). |
| Keywords: | credit constraints; durable goods; 771004; SES 1756992 |
| JEL: | E21 E32 L62 |
| Date: | 2021–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107605&r= |
| By: | Luke Mosley; Idris Eckley; Alex Gibberd |
| Abstract: | Temporal disaggregation is a method commonly used in official statistics to enable high-frequency estimates of key economic indicators, such as GDP. Traditionally, such methods have relied on only a couple of high-frequency indicator series to produce estimates. However, the prevalence of large, and increasing, volumes of administrative and alternative data-sources motivates the need for such methods to be adapted for high-dimensional settings. In this article, we propose a novel sparse temporal-disaggregation procedure and contrast this with the classical Chow-Lin method. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed method through simulation study, highlighting various advantages realised. We also explore its application to disaggregation of UK gross domestic product data, demonstrating the method's ability to operate when the number of potential indicators is greater than the number of low-frequency observations. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05783&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Recent economic developments. Despite a sizeable policy response, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact Rwanda’s economy and social fabric, with output contracting by 3.4 percent in 2020. The vaccine rollout is expected to help counter the pandemic and support the economic recovery, but risks remain elevated. While progress was made in several reform areas, some envisaged reforms are being delayed. The authorities requested the extension of the program by one year to make progress on ongoing reforms and policies to support the economic recovery and meet their fiscal consolidation and debt objectives. Rwanda received debt relief under the third tranche of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT). |
| Date: | 2021–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/164&r= |
| By: | Fortuna Casoria (University of Lyon); Marianna Marino (SKEMA Business School); Pierpaolo Parrotta (IESEG School of Management); Davide Sala (University of Passau) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits quasi-natural experiments associated with three waves of reforms occurred in Italy in 1992, 2001 and 2004, to establish 8, 4, and 3 new provinces, respectively. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find evidence of a significant detrimental effect of (further) decentralization on innovation in Northern and Central Italian provinces. We argue that this finding can be rationalized with the costs imposed by the “mafia transplantation†phenomenon, as we find that the new provinces that were more exposed to “mafiosi in confino†reduced their innovation output extensively. We perform a number of robustness checks that corroborate our main findings. |
| Keywords: | local government, decentralization, innovation, mafia transplantation, difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | D72 H72 K42 L20 O31 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp17&r= |
| By: | Roberto Antonietti (University of Padova); Luca Cattani (University of Bologna); Francesca Gambarotto (University of Padova); Giulio Pedrini (Kore University of Enna) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between the use of Key Enabling Technologies (KETs) and the demand for occupations, tasks, and skills in the local labour market areas (LLMAs) of Emilia-Romagna, Italy. We merge three data sources, and we compute both the share of highly educated employees, or of employees accomplishing low- versus high-routine tasks, and three novel indicators measuring the complexity of occupations, tasks, and skills. Our panel estimates show that a larger share of KETs not only stimulates a higher demand for workers holding a tertiary education degree, or accomplishing less routinary tasks, but also a higher demand for a wider, and more exclusive, set of occupations, tasks, and skills. These results are also robust to unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality. |
| Keywords: | key enabling technology, complexity, occupation, tasks, skills |
| JEL: | J24 O33 R10 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp18&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Bonaccolto (emlyon business school); Massimiliano Caporin; Bertrand Maillet |
| Abstract: | In this article, we first generalize the Conditional Auto-Regressive Expected Shortfall (CARES) model by introducing the loss exceedances of all (other) listed companies in the Expected Shortfall related to each firm, thus proposing the CARES-X model (where the ‘X', as usual, stands for eXtended in the case of large-dimensional problems). Second, we construct a regularized network of US financial companies by introducing the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator in the estimation step. Third, we also propose a calibration approach for uncovering the relevant edges between the network nodes, finding that the estimated network structure dynamically evolves through different market risk regimes. We ultimately show that knowledge of the extreme risk network links provides useful information, since the intensity of these links has strong implications on portfolio risk. Indeed, it allows us to design effective risk management mitigation allocation strategies. |
| Keywords: | finance,Financial networks,Portfolio analysis,Systemic risk,Expectile regression |
| Date: | 2021–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03287947&r= |
| By: | Ben Jann |
| Abstract: | Entropy balancing is a popular reweighting technique that provides an alternative to approaches such as, for example, inverse probability weighting (IPW) based on a logit or probit model. Even if the balancing weights resulting from the procedure will be of primary interest in most applications, it is noteworthy that entropy balancing can be represented as a simple regression-like model. An advantage of treating entropy balancing as a parametric model is that it clarifies how the reweighting affects statistical inference. In this article I present a new Stata command called -ebalfit- that estimates such a model including the variance-covariance matrix of the estimated coefficients. The balancing weights are then obtained as model predictions. Variance estimation is based on influence functions, which can be stored for further use, for example, to obtain consistent standard errors for statistics computed from the reweighted data. |
| Keywords: | entropy balancing, reweighting, inverse probability weighting, IPW, influence function |
| JEL: | C01 C21 C87 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bss:wpaper:39&r= |
| By: | Rani Dubey; Sarita Soy |
| Abstract: | A sound mind in sound body” is well-known fact. A sound body is impossible without proper food and nutrition. Proper food and nutrition diet enhance “healthy mind in a healthy body”. Balanced food and nutritious food related to good health. The right kind of food plays important role in promoting good health of an individual. Healthy children have bright clear eyes smooth glossy hair, a clean and shining skin, well-developed muscles erect on well-formed sturdy bones. They also possess food stamina and physique are active mentally and physically have good endurance, vigour and vitality. They are very cheerful and good natured. Good food means good health. For the nutritional needs of the school going children is very important roles in education. Therefore, the present topic has made an honest attempt to the study the nutritional need. Key Words: Nutrition, Children, Development Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-01&r= |
| By: | Gustavo Pereira Serra (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the contribution of human capital accumulation to solving the First Harrod Problem, which relates to the di erence between demand-led and natural growth rates in the long run. To some extent, this paper also relates to the literature on labor-saving technical change represented as a costly process. Moreover, I show how a model that considers human capital accumulation can address overeducation and technical change. I argue that human capital formation and technological progress are complementary in economic growth: the former ensures the stability of the employment rate on the balanced growth path, whereas the latter determines its level. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Post-Keynesian Economics, First Harrod Problem, Harrodian Instability, Aggregate Productivity |
| JEL: | E11 E12 E24 O40 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2113&r= |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Joydeep; Chakraborty, Shankha; Yu, Xiumei |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a parsimonious, rational-choice model to study the effect of pre-existing inequalities on the transmission of COVID-19. Agents decide whether to "go out" (or self-quarantine) and, if so, whether to wear protection such as masks. Three elements distinguish the model from existing work. First, non-symptomatic agents do not know if they are infected. Second, some of these agents unknowingly transmit infections. Third, we permit two-sided prevention via the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions: the probability of a person catching the virus from another depends on protection choices made by each. We find that a mean-preserving increase in pre-existing income inequality unambiguously increases the equilibrium proportion of unprotected, socializing agents and may increase or decrease the proportion who self-quarantine. Strikingly, while higher pre-COVID inequality may or may not raise the overall risk of infection, it increases the risk of disease in social interactions. |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202103010800001110&r= |
| By: | Nathalie Fabbe-Costes (CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Yasmina Ziad (CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic has shed light on two important but complex SCM concepts: SC robustness and resilience. This paper explores whether SC robustness and resilience should be combined and how to improve both. The research is based on an in-depth single case study at Renault Group, a global car manufacturer. Forty-three key informants involved in managing the SC during the first wave of Covid-19 shared their experience. They confirmed the usefulness of making existing SCs more robust & resilient and suggested a set of resources and practices to do so. The discussion of the results opens new research avenues. |
| Keywords: | Supply chain robustness,Supply chain resilience,Qualitative case study |
| Date: | 2021–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03306223&r= |
| By: | Gianluigi Coppola (University of Salerno); Sergio Destefanis (University of Salerno); Giorgia Marinuzzi (IFEL); Walter Tortorella (IFEL) |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of various types of regional policies on the economies of the 20 Italian administrative regions for the 1994-2016 period. Differently from previous works, we assess the impact of various policy funds in four sectors (agriculture, industry, construction, services) through a multi-input multioutput transformation function, and we estimate the policies’ average partial effects through a control function approach incorporating the funds’ allocation rules. Our evidence implies that European Structural Funds had a significant impact on various sectoral components of regional GDP per capita, with the ERDF taking the strongest role. Furthermore, the effectiveness of European Structural Funds is weaker for services, and stronger for industry and (to a lesser extent) agriculture. Nationally funded regional policies do not have any aggregate impact but affect the sectoral composition of GDP. |
| Keywords: | European Structural Funds, control function approach, sectoral development, multi-output multiinput transformation functions |
| JEL: | C43 D24 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp19&r= |
| By: | Howell, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | The EU project is at an inflection point. Intra-EU alliances are altering following the UK's departure, the EU's financial markets remain segmented, and there is limited appetite for completing the Banking Union. The second stage of Brexit negotiations also collided with the Covid-19 pandemic, which has strained economies around the world. These issues amount to a ‘polycrisis’ for the EU, raising existential questions about its future. This article focuses on one strand of the debates generated within this polycrisis: future UK/EU policy cooperation with respect to financial governance. The article discusses the importance of the financial services sector to the UK and the EU, and examines potential institutional options for future cooperation. In particular, it advocates harnessing dexterous aspects evident within precedents, including existing EU/third country association agreements, to develop a functional arrangement for future financial governance cooperation, which could also lead to closer UK/EU cooperation than currently appears likely. |
| Keywords: | coronavirus; Covid-19; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2021–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:109873&r= |
| By: | Nick James; Max Menzies |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces new methods to study behaviours among the 52 largest cryptocurrencies between 01-01-2019 and 30-06-2021. First, we explore evolutionary correlation behaviours and apply a recently proposed turning point algorithm to identify regimes in market correlation. Next, we inspect the relationship between collective dynamics and the cryptocurrency market size - revealing an inverse relationship between the size of the market and the strength of collective dynamics. We then explore the time-varying consistency of the relationships between cryptocurrencies' size and their returns and volatility. There, we demonstrate that there is greater consistency between size and volatility than size and returns. Finally, we study the spread of volatility behaviours across the market changing with time by examining the structure of Wasserstein distances between probability density functions of rolling volatility. We demonstrate a new phenomenon of increased uniformity in volatility during market crashes, which we term \emph{volatility dispersion}. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13926&r= |
| By: | Cosimo Munari (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Stefan Weber (Leibniz Universität Hannover - House of Insurance); Lutz Wilhelmy (Swiss Re) |
| Abstract: | Protection of creditors is a key objective of financial regulation. Where the protection needs are high, i.e., in banking and insurance, regulatory solvency requirements are an instrument to prevent that creditors incur losses on their claims. The current regulatory requirements based on Value at Risk and Average Value at Risk limit the probability of default of financial institutions, but fail to control the size of recovery on creditors' claims in the case of default. We resolve this failure by developing a novel risk measure, Recovery Value at Risk. Our conceptual approach can flexibly be extended and allows the construction of general recovery risk measures for various risk management purposes. By design, these risk measures control recovery on creditors' claims and integrate the protection needs of creditors into the incentive structure of the management. We provide detailed case studies and applications: We analyze how recovery risk measures react to the joint distributions of assets and liabilities on firms' balance sheets and compare the corresponding capital requirements with the current regulatory benchmarks based on Value at Risk and Average Value at Risk. We discuss how to calibrate recovery risk measures to historic regulatory standards. Finally, we show that recovery risk measures can be applied to performance-based management of business divisions of firms and that they allow for a tractable characterization of optimal tradeoffs between risk and return in the context of investment management. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2158&r= |
| By: | Banerjee, Ritwik; Bhattacharya, Joydeep; Majumdar, Priyama |
| Abstract: | We conduct a unique, Amazon MTurk-based global experiment to investigate the importance of an exponential growth prediction bias (EGPB) in understanding why the COVID-19 outbreak has exploded. The scientific basis for our inquiry is the well-established fact that disease spread, especially in the initial stages, follows an exponential function meaning few positive cases can explode into a widespread pandemic if the disease is sufficiently transmittable. We define prediction bias as the systematic error arising from faulty prediction of the number of cases x-weeks hence when presented with y-weeks of prior, actual data on the same. Our design permits us to identify the root of this under-prediction as an EGPB arising from the general tendency to underestimate the speed at which exponential processes unfold. Our data reveals that the “degree of convexity†reflected in the predicted path of the disease is significantly and substantially lower than the actual path. The bias is significantly higher for respondents from countries at a later stage relative to those at an early stage of disease progression. We find that individuals who exhibit EGPB are also more likely to reveal markedly reduced compliance with the WHO-recommended safety measures, find general violations of safety protocols less alarming, and show greater faith in their government’s actions. A simple behavioral nudge which shows prior data in terms of raw numbers, as opposed to a graph, causally reduces EGPB. Clear communication of risk via raw numbers could increase accuracy of risk perception, in turn facilitating compliance with suggested protective behaviors. |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202101010800001832&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | School systems around the world are making efforts to enhance and make education more efficient with information and communications technology (ICT). This has become especially urgent due to the current pandemic. Because of its rapidly evolving nature, ICT places unique demands on teachers, requiring a certain level of digital literacy and specialised pedagogical knowledge to integrate it into the classroom.Teacher training in ICT usage and instruction at the collective and official level is key to a successful transition from an old to a new educational system. But efforts and careful analysis will be needed to ensure that the training actually increases teacher preparedness and meets their educational demands. Without proper implementation, ICT use may not only be ineffective but have a negative impact on teaching and learning. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, information and communications technology, pandemic, schools, students, teachers, teaching |
| Date: | 2021–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaah:41-en&r= |
| By: | Hernán Vallejo |
| Abstract: | This article proves that at the level of an individual ceteris paribus, when the endowments of goods in general -and of time in particular-, are taken into account, a good has to comply with the Law of Demand if it is normal and its excess demand is positive, or if it is inferior and its excess demand is negative. This result holds even if either the substitution effect is zero; or the excess demand and=or the income effect are zero; but not otherwise. This article also outlines other conditions under which a good will not comply with the Law of Demand, by being Giffen or perfectly inelastic to its price. It is proved that the widespread idea that a Giffen good has to be an inferior good applies only to the cases where the excess demand of such good, is positive. It is also argued that accounting for Veblen goods may require considering other determinants of the demand function, beyond the ones considered in this article |
| Keywords: | Ordinary Goods, Giffen Goods, Veblen Goods, Normal Goods, Inferior Goods, Inelastic Goods |
| JEL: | D01 D11 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019423&r= |
| By: | Georgeta Stoica-Marcu (Ovidius University, Constanța, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The Law no 292/2011 of social assistance framework law recognizes the profession of social worker assistant has a protected field and clearly described in the article 47 paragraph 1 “The initial evaluation and the intervention plan are made by the social assistant worker†after continue to the article 121 paragraph 1 “in the field of social assistance activates social worker assistants, other professionals in social assistance, as well as staff with various professions, qualifications and skills, but in paragraph 2 from the same article†. The social assistance staff in accordance with the status of the profession and in accordance with the provisions of the Labor Code, as well as other legal provisions by case. According to the Deontological Code no 1/December 14, 2007 of the social worker assistant, profession and based on the provisions of the article 27 (a) from The Law no 466/2004 of the Status of the social worker assistants in Romania establishes the obligatory norms of deontology represents a set of norms, rules, prescriptions and dispositions conduct of the social worker assistant, as well as members of the National College of Social Worker Assistants in Romania. |
| Keywords: | deontology, social worker assistant, social worker |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01238&r= |
| By: | Francisco Arroyo Marioli; Fernando Letelier |
| Abstract: | Copper price is fundamental for the Chilean economy and, thus, for the Central Bank of Chile’s forecasts. The goal of this document is to provide a theoretical tool that allows not only to understand the determinants of the evolution of copper price, but also forecast it. We define isoelastic demand and supply functions with both temporary and permanent shocks. We also allow for inventory storage based on a non-arbitrage condition with respect to expected prices. We use a shooting algorithm to solve for equilibrium with rational expectations, with supply, demand, and inventory data as inputs. We also isolate the USD exchange rate component of copper prices. We find that in the short run, temporary shocks play a minor role, whereas the USD Broad index and expectations contribute significantly. Also, in the long run, permanent demand and supply shocks seem to explain the major dynamics. We also present suggestive evidence that imprecise information can explain short-run volatility in expectations. Likewise, the model and methodology used are applicable to any storable commodity, assuming that supply, demand, price and inventories data are always available. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:918&r= |
| By: | Henning, Christian H. C. A.; Diaz, Daniel; Petri, Svetlana |
| Abstract: | In democratic systems, elections are considered a mechanism to ensure that efficient policies seeking the wellbeing of the population are implemented by the government, although the reality often reflects the opposite. Governments usually act inefficiently due to problems of government performance such as capture and low accountability. In the African continent, the republic of Senegal is considered an example of a stable democracy. Electoral processes in the country have been considered relatively fair. However, the decline in the voter turnout over the past elections suggests that the party system is failing to engage voters. This study assesses influencing factors both in voting behavior in Senegal and in the decision to abstain. We estimated nested multinomial logit models including the alternative Abstention to determine the importance of the non-voters group in the policy making process. We found that even though people in general make their decision more non-policy oriented, abstainers, compared to those who cast a vote, tend to choose more retrospectively oriented and less policy and nonpolicy oriented. Furthermore, our findings show that this group of non-voters hold the government more accountable and have a higher political weight for the incumbent party. Thus, they could incentive the government to choose and implement more efficient policies. [...] |
| Keywords: | probabilistic voter model,capture,accountability,agricultural policy,Senegal,Africa |
| JEL: | Q18 C31 C35 C38 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202012&r= |
| By: | Atiqah Amanda Siregar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faizal Rahmanto Moeis (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Wildan Al Kautsar Anky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Providing access of decent work for all can push the attempt of poverty eradication. However, the decent works will not be attainable without the support of inclusive and equitable education, particularly for people with disability (PWD). To date, PWD still faces challenges in obtaining minimum education, decent work, and adequate supporting infrastructure. Thus, this study aims to analyze; (1) the probability of PWD in getting employment; (2) how much the earning handicap of PWD compare to PWOD group, and (3) how the pandemic of COVID-19 affects the PWD workers. Our study suggests that more experienced, educated, and trained labour force will improve the likelihood of working and having wages. PWD tend to have lower educational attainment and training participation compared to PWOD which provide barriers to achieve jobs that are more productive and end up earning lower wages. Moreover, the reduction of wages are highest among PWD with mobility-related disabilities. Yet, the discussion of factors affecting the low wage of PWD remain inconclusive. Further, in the time of COVID-19 pandemic, all participants of Kartu Prakerja Program from PWD group, who managed to finish the training, perceived that the program increased their skill. Despite of other remaining issues, this is encouraging as the value-added skills can be useful in the labour market, particularly for PWD. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 — kartu prakerja — labor market — people with disability — wage |
| JEL: | C34 J21 J24 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202163&r= |
| By: | Cl\'oves Gon\c{c}alves Rodrigues |
| Abstract: | Mastering semiconductor technology is essential to insert any country into the trends of the future, such as smart cities, internet of things, space exploration, etc. In this paper we present the growing annual revenue of the semiconductor industry in the last 20 years and comment on the importance of mastering semiconductor production technology and its implications for the development of a nation. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00867&r= |
| By: | Chang, Jinyuan; Kolaczyk, Eric D.; Yao, Qiwei |
| Abstract: | While it is common practice in applied network analysis to report various standard network summary statistics, these numbers are rarely accompanied by uncertainty quantification. Yet any error inherent in the measurements underlying the construction of the network, or in the network construction procedure itself, necessarily must propagate to any summary statistics reported. Here we study the problem of estimating the density of an arbitrary subgraph, given a noisy version of some underlying network as data. Under a simple model of network error, we show that consistent estimation of such densities is impossible when the rates of error are unknown and only a single network is observed. Accordingly, we develop method-of-moment estimators of network subgraph densities and error rates for the case where a minimal number of network replicates are available. These estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal as the number of vertices increases to infinity. We also provide confidence intervals for quantifying the uncertainty in these estimates based on the asymptotic normality. To construct the confidence intervals, a new and nonstandard bootstrap method is proposed to compute asymptotic variances, which is infeasible otherwise. We illustrate the proposed methods in the context of gene coexpression networks. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. |
| Keywords: | bootstrap; edge density; graph; method of moments; triangles; two-stars |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2020–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:104684&r= |
| By: | Jean de Dieu Mushimiyimana |
| Abstract: | Many countries are improving education system as an instrument that can lead them to speed development. This study was carried out to investigate the School management and effective use of smart classroom in teaching and learning process. The study used 39 participants from Gicumbi District in Rwanda. The results of study indicate that majority of respondents explained that leadership has great effect on the effective use of smart classroom, contributing in ICT development in country and rising country economy.. And teachers gave suggestion on how government help in improving use of smart classroom. Key Words: school management, smart classroom, teaching and learning process, Rwanda Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-02&r= |
| By: | Sumit Kumar Ram (Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich); Shyam Nandan (ETH Zürich); Didier Sornette (ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC); Swiss Finance Institute; Southern University of Science and Technology; Tokyo Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the hot hand effect in the game of cricket by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of hot hands across the players' careers. We show that the self-excitation patterns in performance clusters can be exploited for predicting future performances. This paper contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of hot hands in the sequence of successes in individual performances. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit the clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and the design of algorithms for predicting success. |
| Keywords: | Hot Hand Effect, Gambler's Fallacy |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2150&r= |
| By: | David Pérez-Castrillo; Chaoran Sun |
| Abstract: | We define the proportional ordinal Shapley (the POSh) solution, an ordinal concept for pure exchange economies in the spirit of the Shapley value. Our construction is inspired by Hart and Mas-Colell's (1989) characterization of the Shapley value with the aid of a potential function. The POSh exists and is unique and essentially single-valued for a fairly general class of economies. It satisfies individual rationality, anonymity, and properties similar to the null-player and null-player out properties in transferable utility games. Moreover, the POSh is immune to agents' manipulation of their initial endowments: It is not D-manipulable and does not suffer from the transfer paradox. Finally, we construct a bidding mechanism à la Pérez-Castrillo and Wettstein (2001) that implements the POSh in subgame perfect Nash equilibrium for economies where agents have homothetic preferences and positive endowments. |
| Keywords: | shapley value, exchange economy, ordinal solution, potential, Implementation |
| JEL: | D63 D50 C72 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1274&r= |
| By: | Vanessa Echeverri; Juan C. Duque; Daniel E. Restrepo |
| Abstract: | In this work, we explore the relationship between monetary poverty and production combining relatedness theory, graph theory, and regression analysis. We develop two measures at product level that capture short-run and long-run patterns of poverty, respectively. We use the network of related products (or product space) and both metrics to estimate the influence of the productive structure of a country in its current and future levels of poverty. We found that poverty is highly associated with poorly connected nodes in the PS, especially products based on natural resources. We perform a series of regressions with several controls (including human capital, institutions, income, and population) to show the robustness of our measures as predictors of poverty. Finally, by means of some illustrative examples, we show how our measures distinguishes between nuanced cases of countries with similar poverty and production and identify possibilities of improving their current poverty levels. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05488&r= |
| By: | Thanh Le (University of Wollongong); Cuong Le Van (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPAG Business School, TIMAS - Institute of Mathematics and Applied Science, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ngoc-Sang Pham (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie); Cagri Saglam (Universite Bilkent [Ankara] - Bilkent University [Ankara]) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use only Sperner's lemma to prove the existence of general equilibrium for a competitive economy with production or with uncertainty and financial assets. We show that the direct use of Sperner's lemma together with Carathéodory's convexity theorem and basic properties of topology such as partition of unit, finite covering of a compact set allow us to bypass the Kakutani fixed point theorem even in establishing the Gale-Nikaido-Debreu Lemma. We also provide a new proof of the Kakutani fixed point theorem based on Sperner's lemma. |
| Keywords: | Gale- Nikaido-Debreu Lemma,Fixed Point Theorem,Subdivision,Simplex,Sperner lemma |
| Date: | 2020–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02993655&r= |
| By: | Murat Guray Kirdar (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University); Ivan Lopez Cruz (Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University); Betul Turkum (Department of Economics, European Economic Institute) |
| Abstract: | Most studies examining the impact of migrants on crime rates in hosting populations are in the context of economic migrants in developed countries. However, we know much less about the crime impact of refugees in low- and middle-income countries—whose numbers are increasing worldwide. This study examines this issue in the context of the largest refugee group in any country—Syrian refugees in Turkey. Although these refugees are much poorer than the local population, have limited access to formal employment, and face partial mobility restrictions, we find that total crime per person (including natives and refugees) falls due to the arrival of the refugees. This finding also applies to several types of crime; the only exception is smuggling, which increases due to the population influx. We also show that the fall in crime does not result from tighter security; we find no evidence of a change in the number of armed forces (military and civil personnel) in the migrant-hosting regions. |
| Keywords: | refugees, refugees, crime, security, immigration-crime nexus, civil war. |
| JEL: | J15 K42 D74 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2113&r= |
| By: | Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio (Bank of England); Ferrero, Andrea (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Sectoral supply shocks can trigger shortages in aggregate demand when strong sectoral complementarities are at play. US data on sectoral output and prices offer support to this notion of ‘Keynesian supply shocks’ and their underlying transmission mechanism. Demand shocks derived from standard identification schemes using aggregate data can originate from sectoral supply shocks that spillover to other sectors via a Keynesian supply mechanism. This finding is a regular feature of the data and is independent of the effects of the 2020 pandemic. In a New Keynesian model with input-output network calibrated to three-digit US data, sectoral productivity shocks generate the same pattern for output growth and inflation as observed in the data. The degree of sectoral interconnection, both upstream and downstream, and price stickiness are key determinants of the strength of the mechanism. Sectoral shocks may account for a larger fraction of business-cycle fluctuations than previously thought. |
| Keywords: | Keynesian supply shocks; input-output matrix; granular fluctuations; approximate factor model |
| JEL: | C32 E23 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0934&r= |
| By: | Etienne Theising; Dominik Wied; Daniel Ziggel |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a method to find appropriate outside views for sales forecasts of analysts. The idea is to find reference classes, i.e. peer groups, for each analyzed company separately. Hence, additional companies are considered that share similarities to the firm of interest with respect to a specific predictor. The classes are regarded to be optimal if the forecasted sales distributions match the actual distributions as closely as possible. The forecast quality is measured by applying goodness-of-fit tests on the estimated probability integral transformations and by comparing the predicted quantiles. The method is applied on a data set consisting of 21,808 US firms over the time period 1950 - 2019, which is also descriptively analyzed. It appears that in particular the past operating margins are good predictors for the distribution of future sales. A case study with a comparison of our forecasts with actual analysts' estimates emphasizes the relevance of our approach in practice. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11133&r= |
| By: | Li Li; Yanfei Kang; Feng Li |
| Abstract: | In this work, we propose a novel framework for density forecast combination by constructing time-varying weights based on time series features, which is called Feature-based Bayesian Forecasting Model Averaging (FEBAMA). Our framework estimates weights in the forecast combination via Bayesian log predictive scores, in which the optimal forecasting combination is determined by time series features from historical information. In particular, we use an automatic Bayesian variable selection method to add weight to the importance of different features. To this end, our approach has better interpretability compared to other black-box forecasting combination schemes. We apply our framework to stock market data and M3 competition data. Based on our structure, a simple maximum-a-posteriori scheme outperforms benchmark methods, and Bayesian variable selection can further enhance the accuracy for both point and density forecasts. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02082&r= |
| By: | Antonio Palestrini; Domenico Delli Gatti; Mauro Gallegati; Bruce C. Greenwald |
| Abstract: | Agents forming adaptive expectations generally make systematic mistakes. This characterization has fostered the rejection of adaptive expectations in macroeconomics. Experimental evidence, however, shows that in complex environments human subjects frequently rely on adaptive heuristics – model-consistent expectations being simply too difficult or impossible to implement – but their forecasting performance is not as inadequate as assumed in the characterization above. In this paper we show that adaptive agents may not be as gullible as we used to think. In a model with adaptive expectations augmented with a Belief Correction term (which takes into account the drift of the macroeconomic variable of interest) the average forecasting error is frequently close to zero, hence (belief amended) adaptive expectations are close to unbiasedness. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous adaptive expectations, belief correction, agent based models |
| JEL: | C63 D83 D84 E71 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9205&r= |
| By: | Crivelli, Pramila; Pinchis-paulsen, Mona |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the World Trade Organization (WTO) Panel Report Russia – Measures Concerning Traffic in Transit of April 2019. It constitutes the first attempt to disentangle the legal and political aspects related to the invoked essential security interests from the economic considerations underlying the measures imposed on the transit through Russia of goods exported from Ukraine to the Republic of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. One the one hand, the panel’s interpretation of Article XXI of the GATT denies Members unilateral determination over security exceptions. It further enables a pathway for future WTO panels to review possible abuses of security exceptions – a growing concern due to the rising complexity of transnational economic relations. On the other hand, our economic analysis suggests a stricter assessment of Russia’s transit restrictions was necessary. In particular, it argues that the panel adopted a circular assessment when considering the plausibility of whether Russia implemented its measures for the protection of its essential security interests at a time of emergency in international relations. Ultimately, although the panel’s focus on finding a diplomatic and legal path forward failed economic scrutiny a legal assessment argues that the panel’s findings fit the legal design of Article XXI:b of the GATT. |
| Keywords: | WTO; dispute settlement; national security; transit; trade barriers; Russia; CUP deal |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111027&r= |
| By: | Marcel Lincényi (Alexander Dubček University of Trenčín); Martin Laczko (Alexander Dubček University of Trenčín) |
| Abstract: | The present research study explores the extent to which the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union may negatively affect the efforts to lead in particular young people to have a positive attitude towards this integration group, enhance a feeling of belonging to it or a certain sense of common European citizenship. The main aim of the paper was to identify those selected circumstances of Brexit and its campaigns that could evoke strong Eurosceptic sentiments and, on the contrary, look for ways to eliminate these negative tendencies. The authors discuss how a populist, emotionally focused and often misleading campaign has significantly contributed to the vote of Brexit in a referendum, which is a precedent that may under certain circumstances be repeated in other member countries. The paper also discusses the media dimension of the topic. Especially the question of spreading misinformation, hoaxes, conspiracy or propaganda in alternative media that can strengthen Euroscepticism in many EU countries, including the Slovak Republic. |
| Keywords: | Brexit,education,European Union,Euroscepticism,media |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03298798&r= |
| By: | Fermin Cuevas (ICMPE - Institut de Chimie et des Matériaux Paris-Est - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Junxian Zhang (ICMPE - Institut de Chimie et des Matériaux Paris-Est - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Michel Latroche (ICMPE - Institut de Chimie et des Matériaux Paris-Est - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03211547&r= |
| By: | Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Die Weltwirtschaft blieb trotz neuerlicher pandemiebedingter Beeinträchtigungen in den ersten Monaten des Jahres 2021 aufwärtsgerichtet. Die Auswirkungen der Pandemie waren dabei weitgehend auf die Dienstleistungsbereiche beschränkt, Industrieproduktion und Welthandel expandierten bis zum Frühjahr weiter kräftig. Ihr Aufschwung wurde zuletzt aber durch Angebotsengpässe und logistische Probleme gebremst. Die Anspannungen im weltwirtschaftlichen Gefüge zeigen sich nicht zuletzt in starken Preisanstiegen für Rohstoffe, Vorleistungsgüter und Transportleistungen, die bereits zu einem spürbaren Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise beigetragen haben. Eine weiterhin stark expansive Geldpolitik und erhebliche Impulse von der Finanzpolitik in den Vereinigten Staaten, aber auch im Euroraum befeuern im Prognosezeitraum die Konjunktur. Wir rechnen für 2021 mit einem Anstieg der Weltproduktion (gemessen auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten) um 6,7 Prozent, und auch im Jahr 2022 wird die weltwirtschaftliche Aktivität mit voraussichtlich 4,8 Prozent stärker steigen als im mittelfristigen Trend. Angesichts der hohen konjunkturellen Dynamik und höherer Inflationsrisiken rechnen wir damit, dass die Notenbank in den Vereinigten Staaten früher als bisher erwartet beginnen wird, die Geldpolitik zu straffen. Damit verbunden ist das Risiko, dass sich die Finanzierungsbedingungen an den internationalen Kapitalmärkten bereits im Prognosezeitraum deutlich verschlechtern. |
| Keywords: | Amerika,Asien,Konjunktur Welt,China,Schwellen-& Entwicklungsländer,Europa,USA |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:79&r= |
| By: | Sydow, Matthias; Schilte, Aurore; Covi, Giovanni; Deipenbrock, Marija; Del Vecchio, Leonardo; Fiedor, Paweł; Fukker, Gábor; Gehrend, Max; Gourdel, Régis; Grassi, Alberto; Hilberg, Björn; Kaijser, Michiel; Kaoudis, Georgios; Mingarelli, Luca; Montagna, Mattia; Piquard, Thibaut; Salakhova, Dilyara; Tente, Natalia |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how the combined endogenous reaction of banks and investment funds to an exogenous shock can amplify or dampen losses to the financial system compared to results from single-sector stress testing models. We build a new model of contagion propagation using a very large and granular data set for the euro area. Based on the economic shock caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, we model three sources of exogenous shocks: a default shock, a market shock and a redemption shock. Our contagion mechanism operates through a dual channel of liquidity and solvency risk. The joint modelling of banks and funds provides new insights for the assessment of financial stability risks. Our analysis reveals that adding the fund sector to our model for banks leads to additional losses through fire sales and a further depletion of banks’ capital ratios by around one percentage point. JEL Classification: D85, G01, G21, G23, L14 |
| Keywords: | fire sales, liquidity, overlapping portfolios, price impact, stress testing |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212581&r= |
| By: | Echeverría, Lucía (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Mobility gives individuals access to different daily activities, facilities, and places, but at the cost of imposing environmental burdens. The sustainable growth of society is linked to green mobility (e.g., public transport, walking, cycling) as a way to alleviate individual carbon footprints. This study explores the socio-demographic profile of individuals performing green travel (public and physical modes of transport) and identifies cross-country differences in green travelling behavior. We rely on information from the Multinational Time Use Study, MTUS. for Bulgaria, Canada, Spain, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, from 2000 to 2019. We estimate Ordinary Least Squares regressions modelling individual decisions regarding green mobility. Our results indicate that the socio-demographic and family profile of travelers is not homogenous across green modes of transport, with physical travel exhibiting a much more consistent profile, across countries, in comparison to the use of public transport. Results indicate a positive relationship between living in urban areas and the time proportion of green travel, but estimates by country differ in magnitude and depend on the mode. We also find that some countries are more prone to green travel, and that transport infrastructure is more related to the proportion of time travelled by physical transport than by public transport. Our findings help in understanding who is committed to green mobility, while revealing systematic differences across countries that are worth analyzing. |
| Keywords: | green mobility, public transport, walking/cycling, Multinational Time Use Study |
| JEL: | R40 J22 O57 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14577&r= |
| By: | Mortazi, Mohammad; Moradi, Ahmad; Khosravi, Mohsen |
| Abstract: | Voltage control and reactive power play an important role in the operation of the distribution network. Accordingly, conventional methods such as the installation of a capacitor in an optimum location with a proper capacity and optimal transformer tap setting which has an impressive effect on voltage control and reactive power are used. But the study on the simultaneous use of these two methods is limited and it seems necessary to be conducted. These days the presence of Distributed Generation (DG) resources has grown in distribution networks. The presence of distributed generation resources has a great influence on the voltage profile due to the radial structure of the distribution network and the low X/R ratio. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the optimal coordination of the use of switchable capacitors and the setting of transformer taps in the presence of distributed generation resources to improve the voltage profile and reduce losses. This paper examines the simultaneous use of capacitors and transformer taps in distribution networks to reduce the voltage deviation and distribution losses in the presence of distributed generation resources. In order to explain the objectives, six different operation scenarios have been defined and studied. The above study is implemented based on the IEEE, 13 and 34 bus standard networks and the results are presented. The presented results clearly indicate the necessity of coordinating the use of these tools in distribution networks. |
| Keywords: | Capacitor, Distributed Generation Resources, Loss Reduction, Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm, Transformer Tap Changer, Voltage Adjustment |
| JEL: | O14 O32 Q32 |
| Date: | 2020–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109052&r= |
| By: | Goundan, Anatole; Sall, Moussa; Henning, Christian H. C. A. |
| Abstract: | The adoption of certified seeds and chemical fertilizers is central for African agri- culture which is characterized by very low productivity. This paper analyzes the technology adoption of certified seeds and inorganic fertilizers for two central crops in Senegal: rice and groundnut. The joint adoption of these two technologies is modeled in the presence of production risk using a flexible bivariate probit model. A recent agricultural survey, representative country-wide, collected in 2017 is used for our application. Descriptive statistics confirm the low rate of agricultural technology adoption. In the rainfed system, the average inorganic fertilizer used is about 28 kg/ha. The analysis reveals that in rural Senegal de- cisions to adopt certified seeds and inorganic fertilizers are interrelated for both rice and groundnut systems. For the rice system, a heterogeneous dependency is revealed, while for groundnut technology adoptions, a homogeneous correlation is found. Production risk is found to have a significant impact on technology adoption. We also found that determinants of individual technologies and their joint adoption vary widely across crops. However, the main determinants of technology adoption in rainfed agriculture in Senegal include cooperative membership, access to extension services, access to credit, education, family size, and farm size. |
| Keywords: | Fertilizer use,certified seeds,joint technology adoption,rainfed agriculture,Senegal |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202005&r= |
| By: | Singh, Radhika; Joshi, Shail |
| Abstract: | The Bundelkhand region in India has been dealing with a severe water crisis for the last two decades. This water crisis has received a significant amount of attention from the central government, media and academics. However, although multiple policies and acts have been passed, and extensive resources distributed, there has not been much improvement on the ground. This thesis analyzes the reasons behind ineffective water governance and implementation at all levels of government, and concludes that over-centralization of planning, crisis-response rather than long-term planning, and a lack of pragmatic planning are key to understanding the current situation. More generally, the disjointed nature of water governance in India has made it difficult for the public sector to carry out cohesive planning approaches. We suggest reforms that can be adopted, and consider the possible consequences to water management and planning if Bundelkhand were to become a separate state. |
| Keywords: | Bundelkhand, drought, water resource governance, water scarcity, agriculture, India, groundwater |
| JEL: | O13 O21 Q1 Q15 Q18 Q25 Q28 Q54 Q58 R5 R58 |
| Date: | 2020–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109067&r= |
| By: | Michal Bauer; Jana Cahlikova; Julie Chytilova; Gerard Roland; Tomas Zelinsky |
| Abstract: | This paper provides experimental evidence showing that members of a majority group systematically shift punishment on innocent members of an ethnic minority. We develop a new incentivized task, the Punishing the Scapegoat Game, to measure how injustice affecting a member of one’s own group shapes punishment of an unrelated bystander (“a scapegoat”). We manipulate the ethnic identity of the scapegoats and study interactions between the majority group and the Roma minority in Slovakia. We find that when no harm is done, there is no evidence of discrimination against the ethnic minority. In contrast, when a member of one’s own group is harmed, the punishment ”passed” on innocent individuals more than doubles when they are from the minority, as compared to when they are from the dominant group. These results illuminate how individualized tensions can be transformed into a group conflict, dragging minorities into conflicts in a way that is completely unrelated to their behavior. |
| Keywords: | punishment; minority groups; inter-group conflict; discrimination; scapegoating; lab-in-field experiments; |
| JEL: | C93 D74 D91 J15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp697&r= |
| By: | Oana Tataru (Ovidius University of Constanta, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The assessment of a concept had constantly been a challenging phase in respect of the precise moment of appearance, all the more as the postulation – modernity- was considered controversial and complex along its entire history. An aspect that had to be mentioned was the fact according to which the idea of modernity could not be conceived but within the parameters of a particular awareness of the time, namely the historic, linear and irreversible one. Modernity would be purposeless if a society had not regarded the temporal-sequential concept of history as representative and organized temporal categories in accordance with a mythical and recurrent pattern. Although the notion of modernity was assimilated almost automatically to secularism, the main corresponding constitutive element had been the sense of unrepeatable time, not compatible with a religious Weltanschauung. The premodern societies highly considered the religious doctrines in contrast to actual realities the public opinion of which did not appear as the prerogative of an educated minority, but a constantly enhanced forum of social communication. |
| Keywords: | modernity, civilization, chronicle, society, individual, culture |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01249&r= |
| By: | Dilger, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Prozent-Hürden führen normalerweise dazu, dass Stimmen verfallen, was der Gleichheit der Wahl widerspricht und die Chancen kleinerer sowie neuer Parteien mindert. Es gibt mehrere mögliche Auswege, z. B. durch Präferenzwahl. Noch einfacher ist es, wenn jede Partei angibt, an welche andere Partei ihre Stimmen gehen sollen, falls sie selbst an der Prozent-Hürde scheitert. |
| JEL: | D72 K16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:72021&r= |
| By: | Meilin Ma; Jayson L. Lusk |
| Abstract: | Supply chains for many agricultural products have an hour-glass shape; in between a sizable number of farmers and consumers is a smaller number of processors. The concentrated nature of the meat processing sectors in the United States implies that disruption of the processing capacity of any one plant, from accident, weather, or as recently witnessed – worker illnesses from a pandemic – has the potential to lead to system-wide disruptions. We explore the extent to which a less concentrated meat processing sector would be less vulnerable to the risks of temporary plant shutdowns. We calibrate an economic model to match the actual horizontal structure of the U.S. beef packing sector and conduct counter-factual simulations. With Cournot competition among heterogeneous packing plants, the model determines how industry output and producer and consumer welfare vary with the odds of exogenous plant shutdowns under different horizontal structures. We find that increasing odds of shutdown results in a widening of the farm-to-retail price spread even as packer profits fall, regardless of the structure. Results indicate that the extent to which a more diffuse packing sector performs better in ensuring a given level of output, and thus food security, depends on the exogenous risk of shutdown and the level of output desired; no horizontal structure dominates. These results illustrate the consequences of policies and industry efforts aimed at increasing the resilience of the food supply chain and highlight that there are no easy solutions to improving the short-run resilience by changing the horizontal concentration of meat packing. |
| JEL: | L11 Q11 Q19 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29103&r= |
| By: | Gustavo Pereira Serra (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to analyze the sustainability of student debt in the US. For this purpose, I build a neo-Kaleckian model in which households can borrow to either consume or invest in human capital. Next, I calibrate the model using US data to simulate the economic effects of specific policies such as student loan forgiveness. To my knowledge, this is the first study that considers household borrowing for two di erent purposes, consumption and human capital accumulation, in a demand-led macro-modeling framework. The main findings are that i) household debt is sustainable in the long run (i.e., the debt servicing is compatible with the long-term economic growth) for a consumption level greater than 90% of household income; ii) new borrowing boosts short-term economic activity while having ambiguous long-term e ects because of its outcomes to household indebtedness and debt servicing; and iii) student loan cancellation has only short-run economic e ects, whereas reducing loan interest rates and changing the eligibility criterion for student loan forgiveness result in long-term effects. |
| Keywords: | Household debt, student loans, capacity utilization, human capital |
| JEL: | E12 E22 E24 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2112&r= |
| By: | William Torous; Florian Gunsilius; Philippe Rigollet |
| Abstract: | We propose a method based on optimal transport theory for causal inference in classical treatment and control study designs. Our approach sheds a new light on existing approaches and generalizes them to settings with high-dimensional data. The implementation of our method leverages recent advances in computational optimal transport to produce an estimate of high-dimensional counterfactual outcomes. The benefits of this extension are demonstrated both on synthetic and real data that are beyond the reach of existing methods. In particular, we revisit the classical Card & Krueger dataset on the effect of a minimum wage increase on employment in fast food restaurants and obtain new insights about the impact of raising the minimum wage on employment of full- and part-time workers in the fast food industry. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05858&r= |
| By: | Nguyen Thang Dao |
| Abstract: | We set up a model with intergenerational bequest transfers and climate damage on the wealth of heterogeneous households. We show that, under credit market imperfections and depending on wealth distribution across households, a balanced budget climate policy may widen the wealth inequality gap between the rich and poor. Climate policy may create positive effects on the wealth of households, but these effects are asymmetric across households in terms of both magnitude and the transmission of gains from a climate policy within households. The gains of the poor from a climate policy are mainly transmitted into improving living standards and the investment in human capital due to the higher marginal return to education investment. By contrast, the gains of the rich from a climate policy are transmitted biasedly into physical capital accumulation and thereby enhance their monopolistic position in the production of intermediate inputs. We show that, for any climate policy, there exists a corresponding threshold of aggregate physical capital. When the aggregate physical capital of the economy exceeds this threshold, the corresponding climate policy may widen the intergenerational bequest transfers among heterogeneous households, thereby contributing to widening the wealth inequality gap between the rich and poor in the long run. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1139&r= |
| By: | Jones, Stephen R. G.; Lange, Fabian; Riddell, William Craig; Warman, Casey |
| Abstract: | The Canadian labour market experienced a period of unprecedented turmoil following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the main changes using standard labour force statistics and new data on job postings. Envisaging a phase of temporary severing of employment relationships followed by a phase of more standard labour market search and matching, we use stock and flow data to understand key developments. We find dramatic changes in employment, unemployment and labour market attachment in 2020 and, looking forward to 2021, signs of an unusual recovery with co-existing strong labour demand and stubborn persistence in depressed employment rates. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,Coronavirus,Job loss,Unemployment,Employment,Transition rates |
| JEL: | E24 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:37&r= |
| By: | Sinha, Ankur; Das, Arka; Anand, Guneshwar; Jayaswal, Sachin |
| Abstract: | In this article, we discuss an exact algorithm for mixed integer concave minimization problems. A piece wise inner-approximation of the concave function is achieved using an auxiliary linear program that leads to a bilevel program, which provides a lower bound to the original problem. The bilevel program is reduced to a single-level formulation with the help of Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT) conditions. Incorporating the KKT conditions lead to complementary slackness conditions that are linearized using BigM. Multiple bilevel programs, When solved over iterations, guarantee convergence to the exact optimum of the original problem. Though the algorithm is general and can be applied to any optimization problem with concave function(s), in this paper, we solve two common classes of operations and supply chain problems; namely, the concave knapsack problem, and the concave production transportation problem. The computational experiments indicate that our proposed approach out performs the customized methods that have been used in the literature to solve the two classes of problems by an order of magnitude in most of the test cases. |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14658&r= |
| By: | Raffaele Anedda (UEA - Unité d'Économie Appliquée - ENSTA Paris - École Nationale Supérieure de Techniques Avancées) |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de l'article est de proposer des lectures structurales de deux indicateurs de la qualité technologique des brevets : l'originalité et la généralité. Nous les transformons pour ce faire en des objets mathématiquesdes « graphes »et nous insistons sur des amendements et prolongements inspirés par cette nouvelle approche. Dans une première lecture, nous partons des indices originels et nous leur appliquons directement une représentation sous la forme de graphes. Dans une deuxième lecture, nous partons de matrices de flux technologiques et nous reconstruisons les indices de dispersion tels qu'ils ont été conçus initialement. Nous allons même un peu plus loin : nous proposons d'autres indices de la qualité technologique à partir de ces matrices, dont un qui nous semble de portée supérieure pour apprécier cette qualité. ABSTRACT. The aim of this article is to propose the structural readings of two indicators of the technological quality of patents: originality and generality. To do so, we transform them into mathematical objects-graphs-and insist on amendments and extensions inspired by this new approach. In the first reading, we start from the original indices and we directly apply a representation in the form of graphs to them. In the second reading, we start from the technological flow matrices and reconstruct the dispersion indices as they were originally conceived. We go even further by proposing other indices of technological quality from these matrices, including one that seems to have a greater scope for assessing this quality. MOTS-CLÉS. Brevet, technologie, théorie des graphes. |
| Keywords: | patent,technology,graph theory |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03289528&r= |
| By: | Gianni De Nicolo (Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)); Nataliya Klimenko (University of Zurich); Sebastian Pfeil (Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE); Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM)); Jean-Charles Rochet (Swiss Finance Institute; University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI); University of Zurich - Swiss Banking Institute (ISB)) |
| Abstract: | We build a stylized dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions to analyze costs and benefits of capital requirements in the short-term and long-term. We show that since increasing capital requirements limits the aggregate loan supply, the equilibrium loan rate spread increases, which raises bank profitability and the market-to-book value of bank capital. Hence, banks build up larger capital buffers which (i) lowers the public losses in case of a systemic crisis and (ii) restores the banking sector’s lending capacity after the short-term credit crunch induced by tighter regulation. We confirm our model’s dynamic implications in a panel VAR estimation, which suggests that bank lending has even increased in the long-run after the implementation of Basel III capital regulation. |
| Keywords: | Bank capital requirements, credit crunch, systemic risk |
| JEL: | E21 E32 F44 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2152&r= |
| By: | Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in response to shocks. We apply our framework to the reallocation of US economic activity from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt from 1965-2015. We find slow convergence to steady-state, with US states closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period than at its beginning. We find substantial heterogeneity in the effects of local shocks, which depend on capital and labor dynamics, and the spatial and sectoral incidence of these shocks. |
| JEL: | F14 F15 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29101&r= |
| By: | Lorenzo Caliendo; Fernando Parro |
| Abstract: | We review recent theoretical and empirical research on trade policy. We start by presenting reduced-form evidence of the effects of trade policy in the presence of supply-chain linkages, on the short-run and persistent effects of trade policy across local labor markets, and on the effects of trade policy uncertainty on employment and firms. We describe the shift-share method for trade policy analysis, discuss the interpretation of the estimated effects, and provide a theoretical foundation. We then describe new quantitative frameworks, methods, and data used to study the aggregate and distributional effects of trade policy in general equilibrium. We discuss how to take into account supply-chain linkages, local labor markets, and different sources of dynamics. As an illustration, we quantify the aggregate and distributional effects of the 2018 trade war between the United States and its trading partners. Finally, we present recent theoretical insights on optimal unilateral trade policy with firm and product heterogeneity in the context of large and small open economies with perfectly and imperfectly competitive product markets. We also discuss how optimal trade policy is shaped by the presence of multiple sectors, intermediate goods, and supply-chain linkages. We close the chapter by discussing the scope of future research. |
| JEL: | F1 F10 F11 F12 F13 F14 F15 F16 F19 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29051&r= |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Christopher Rooney; François Steenkamp (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a synthesis of four country case studies on Ghana, Kenya, Senegal and South Africa. These studies examine structural change through the lens of economic complexity, and provide policy options through which these countries can achieve structural change that expands the economic opportunities for disenfranchised women and youth.3 The common objectives across these four studies is as follows: First, to examine the degree and extent of economic complexity of the country in question. Second, to undertake a detailed product space analysis. Third, use economic complexity and product space analytics to identify potential avenues for economic diversification or frontier products. Fourth, through the use of firm interviews, to identify the constraints that prevent, and the capabilities that enable, firms to diversify into these frontier products. Fifth, examine the employment potential associated with these frontier products. And finally, to provide a set of policy options that would facilitate this process of complexity building structural change. |
| Keywords: | Economic complexity, economic development, Africa Rising, structural transformation, women, youth, employment |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:201906&r= |
| By: | Eric Monnet,; Angelo Riva,; Stefano Ungaro. |
| Abstract: | We investigate the causal impact of bank runs by exploiting a key feature of the French Great Depression (1930-1931) that created exogenous geographical variations in the withdrawals of bank deposits. Unregulated commercial banks coexisted with government-backed saving institutions (Caisses d’épargne). During the crisis, depositors who had an account in Caisses d’épargne were more likely to withdraw from banks. Pre-crisis density of Caisses d’épargne accounts was unrelated to economic and bank characteristics. Using this variable as an instrument, we find that a 1% decrease in bank branches reduced aggregate income by 1%. Our identification highlights how a shift of deposits towards safer institutions can affect financial fragility. It holds lessons for current financial regulation and the design of central bank digital currency (CBDC). <p> Nous étudions l’impact causal des paniques bancaires en exploitant une caractéristique essentielle de la Grande Dépression française (1930-1931) qui entraîna des variations géographiques exogènes des retraits des dépôts bancaires. Les banques commerciales, non réglementées, coexistaient avec les Caisses d’Épargne, régulées par l’État. Pendant la crise, les déposants titulaires d’un compte dans les Caisses d’épargne étaient plus susceptibles de retirer leurs dépôts des banques. La densité des Caisses d’Épargne au niveau départemental avant la crise n’était pas liée aux caractéristiques économiques et bancaires du département. En utilisant cette variable comme instrument, nous constatons qu’une baisse de 1 % des guichets bancaires réduisit le PIB local de 1 %. Notre identification montre comment un transfert des dépôts vers des institutions plus sûres peut affecter la stabilité financière. Elle permet également de tirer des enseignements pour la réglementation financière actuelle et pour la conception des monnaies digitales de banque centrale (CBDC). |
| Keywords: | bank runs, flight-to-safety, banking panics, Great Depression; ruées bancaires, fuite vers la sécurité, paniques bancaires, Grande Dépression |
| JEL: | E44 E51 G01 G21 N14 N24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:decfin:37&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Eaton; Marcela Eslava; David Jinkins; C. J. Krizan; James Tybout |
| Abstract: | Exporting abroad is much harder than selling at home, and overcoming hurdles to exporting takes time. Our goal is to identify specific barriers to exporting and to measure their importance. We develop a model of firm-level export dynamics that features costly customer search, network effects in finding buyers, and learning about product appeal. Fitting the model to customs records of U.S. imports of manufactures from Colombia we replicate patterns of exporter maturation. A potentially valuable intangible asset of a firm is its customer base and knowledge of a market. Our model delivers some striking estimates of what such assets are worth. Averaging across active exporters, the loss from total market amnesia (losing its current U.S. customer base along with its accumulated knowledge of product appeal) is US$ 3.4 million, about 34 percent of the value of exporting overall. About half is the loss of future sales to existing customers while the rest is the cost of relearning its appeal in the market and reestablishing visibility as an exporter. Given the importance of search, learning, and visibility, the 5-year response of total export sales to an exchange rate shock exceeds the 1-year response by about 40 percent. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:21-17&r= |
| By: | Javier Aliaga Lordemann (Senior Associate Researcher at INESAD); Sergio Mansilla (Junior Researcher at INESAD) |
| Abstract: | Public and private infrastructure has an important role in economic growth, human development, and quality of life; hence the investment on infrastructure provision (access) probably will have a direct and positive effect on productivity and innovation, at the same time a better distribution of this infrastructure access (equity) will have a positive but indirect effect on welfare. Under these assumptions, the objective of this paper is to assess the impact of Telecommunications (TELECOM) investment over - first - the growth and evolution in the access and equity to various services – i.e., fixed, mobile, and broadband during the last 15 years in Bolivia; and – second – to evaluate the investment causality over the sectoral GDP. First, we derived a long-term parsimonious equation specified as an Error Correction Model (ECM) estimated from an Autoregressive Model with distributed lags (ARDL). Second, we estimated several sets of Social Opportunity Functions (FOS) for the TELECOM to evaluate the degree of inclusiveness in the sense of Ali and Son (2007). Our main findings show that Public investment indicates a crowding-out effect in the short and long term over the sectoral GDP; and the long-term relationship between these variables has convergence toward its long-term equilibrium for the period 1990-2020. Also, the access to household’s internet in the urban areas has been moderate during the last 15 years, but there is still a lack of distribution to this opportunity. Regarding to rural household’s, we verify that it continues to be very low and has an inequitable distribution of access; however, we expect this result due to this service (household internet) is competing with mobile devices. Summarizing, we verify the hypothesis of Chatterjee and Turnovsky (2012) “… higher spending on infrastructure increases the growth rate, but it favors the rich and increases inequality” … in the absence of mechanisms to improve equity in access. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure, growth, inclusiveness, access, equity, telecommunications . |
| JEL: | H54 D63 L96 O41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202104&r= |
| By: | Yulianti Abbas (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Christine Tjen (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Panggah Tri Wicaksono (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of “Pajak Bertutur”, a tax education program in Indonesia. We analyze whether there were differences in students’ tax awareness before and after the program, and whether the results of the program were influenced by students’ familiarity with taxation. We distributed an online survey questionnaire to all students participating in the 2020 tax education program, resulting in a total of 693 responses, 461 for pre-survey and 232 for post-survey. Using multivariate regression analysis, our results suggest that students’ tax awareness level increased after the tax education program. We also found that the increase in tax awareness was greater for students who are familiar with tax authority website and those who have learned about taxation before the event. These findings thus indicate that the effectiveness of the tax education program is influenced by the students’ prior knowledge, emphasizing that a continuous tax education program is necessary to improve tax awareness. |
| Keywords: | tax education — — tax awareness — tax knowledge — tax inclusion |
| JEL: | A22 H20 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202160&r= |
| By: | Li, Erqian; Härdle, Wolfgang; Dai, Xiaowen; Tian, Maozai |
| Abstract: | The proportional subdistribution hazards (PSH) model is popularly used to deal with competing risks data. Censored quantile regression provides an important supplement as well as variable selection methods, due to large numbers of irrelevant covariates in practice. In this paper, we study variable selection procedures based on penalized weighted quantile regression for competing risks models, which is conveniently applied by researchers. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators including consistency and asymptotic normality of non-penalized estimator and consistency of variable selection are established. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted, showing that the proposed methods are considerably stable and efficient. A real data about bone marrow transplant (BMT) is also analyzed to illustrate the application of proposed procedure. |
| Keywords: | Competing risks,Cumulative incidence function,Kaplan-Meier estimator,Redistribution method |
| JEL: | C00 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2021013&r= |
| By: | Edwin van der Werf; Herman R. J. Vollebergh; Johanna Vogel |
| Abstract: | Limiting global warming to no more than 2°C requires global large-scale deployment of low-carbon and negative emissions technologies. This requires the development of new eco-innovations and the diffusion of new and existing ones. Existing portfolios of environmental and technology policy instruments, however, may not be up to this task. In this paper, we develop an evaluative framework for the assessment of existing and new policy instruments for the successful development and deployment of eco-innovations. Our evaluative framework considers focus, scope, strictness, coherence and timing as key criteria for the evaluation of policy instruments for the transition to a low-carbon economy. We apply our framework to the residential and commercial (buildings) sector in an ambitious country, Austria. |
| Keywords: | climate change mitigation policy, policy instruments, eco-innovation |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9192&r= |
| By: | Teodor Narcis Godeanu (Spiru Haret University, Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The present study aims to analyze some aspects related to the right to strike regime. We aim to start from the general to the individual, from this right, in its capacity as a fundamental right of employees and continuing with the particularities of manifestation within certain categories of people. These are public sector staff in general and some categories of staff in this sector, in particular. A first approach considers civil servants, which is the most discussed and disputed category in the doctrine of labor law and, respectively, the doctrine of public law. The second approach concerns some civil servants subject to a special status, such as staff in the public order and safety system. Can they exercise their right to strike? If not, why not? If so, to what extent? The usefulness of the theme was determined by what is happening in contemporary reality. |
| Keywords: | rights, freedoms, the right to strike, personnel, the public sector, civil servants, civil servants with special status |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01255&r= |
| By: | Moslehi, Solmaz (Monash University); Parasnis, Jaai (Monash University); Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales); Vejayaratnam, Josephina (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between Covid-19 lockdowns and domestic assaults in New South Wales and Victoria using police data on crime by Local Government Area over the period 2019-2020. We apply both Ordinary Least Squares and a fixed effect estimator, and find that domestic assaults decline during the lockdowns of 2020, but less than other types of assaults. As a result, there is a higher relative incidence of domestic assaults rather than an overall increase in crime. The results are robust to omitted variable bias based on Oster's (2019) test, and mimic Boman and Gallupe (2020) - a similar study carried out in the US. |
| Keywords: | domestic assault, COVID-19, lockdowns, crime |
| JEL: | I10 K42 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14573&r= |
| By: | NAKASHIMA, KIYOTAKA; Ogawa, Toshiaki |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of strengthening bank capital supervision on bank behavior in the incomplete enforcement of regulations. In a dynamic model of banks facing persistent idiosyncratic shocks, banks accumulate regulatory capital and decrease charter value and lending in the short run, while in the long run, the banking system achieves stability. To test the short-run implications, we utilize the introduction of the prompt corrective action program in Japan as a quasi-natural experiment. Using some empirical specifications with bank- and loan-level data, we find empirical evidence consistent with the theoretical predictions. |
| Keywords: | regulatory surveillance; incomplete enforcement; heterogeneous bank model; prompt corrective action; bank capital ratio; credit crunch |
| JEL: | G00 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109147&r= |
| By: | Faria, Joao Ricardo; McAdam, Peter; Viscolani, Bruno |
| Abstract: | We study the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in a Ramsey-Sidrauski model augmented with environmental capital. Equilibrium solutions are studied through the “Green Golden Rule”. Despite the non-separability of money in utility and intertemporally non-separable preferences, money is environmentally neutral. Policy impacts the environment via the marginal rate of transformation rather than the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and environment. Fiscal policies, lump sum and distortionary, under a balanced budget, are also environmentally non-neutral. Only under a non-balanced budget, when deficits are monetized, is money environmentally non-neutral. In alternative approaches (Cash-in-Advance, Transactions Costs), money is environmentally non-neutral. JEL Classification: E52, E62, H23 |
| Keywords: | cash in advance, Chichilnisky et al. conjecture, environmental capital, Friedman rule, green golden rule, Ramsey-Sidrauski, transactions costs |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212573&r= |
| By: | Rajeev K. Goel; Ummad Mazhar; Rati Ram |
| Abstract: | This study uses a large firm-level data set covering more than 80 countries to explore the effects of firm-size, city-size, and government-size on perceived and experienced corruption. Four points summarize our main findings, which seem instructive and new. First, there is a broad structural similarity in the major determinants of perceived and experienced corruption. Second, larger firms and larger government size lower corruption perceptions and experience. Third, larger cities raise corruption perceptions and experience. Fourth, when the sample is limited to large cities, the corruption-lowering effect of government size loses significance throughout, while firm size loses significance in experience regressions. |
| Keywords: | corruption perception, corruption experience, firm size, government size, city size, emerging economies |
| JEL: | K42 L25 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9221&r= |
| By: | Hochstetler, Kathryn |
| Abstract: | What kinds of national climate institutions can solve the governance challenges that the Paris Agreement devolves to them? This article identifies three stages of climate institutions in Brazil, a major emitter of greenhouse gases through deforestation that managed to reduce such emissions for nearly a decade. It shows that a narrow definition of climate institutions that seeks purpose-built state institutions fails to capture important dynamics there, and that such institutions have little direct impact on outcomes. In Brazil’s political landscape, national presidents exercise a decisive influence on their climate ambitions and capacities. However, positive and negative feedback loops also brought some effective climate action from the layering of climate purposes into existing institutions, as well as through non-traditional institutions like private governance arrangements for agriculture. |
| Keywords: | climate change; climate institutions; Brazil; deforestation; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111417&r= |
| By: | Jan Matas; Jan Posp\'i\v{s}il |
| Abstract: | Rough Volterra volatility models are a progressive and promising field of research in derivative pricing. Although rough fractional stochastic volatility models already proved to be superior in real market data fitting, techniques used in simulation of these models are still inefficient in terms of speed and accuracy. This paper aims to present the accurate tools and techniques that could be used also in nowadays largely emerging pricing methods based on machine learning. In particular, we compare three widely used simulation methods: the Cholesky method, the Hybrid scheme, and the rDonsker scheme. We also comment on implementation of variance reduction techniques. In particular, we show the obstacles of the so-called turbocharging technique whose performance is sometimes contra productive. To overcome these obstacles, we suggest several modifications. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01999&r= |
| By: | Fatih Ozhamaratli (University College London); Oleg Kitov (University of Cambridge); Paolo Barucca (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Each individual in society experiences an evolution of their income during their lifetime. Macroscopically, this dynamics creates a statistical relationship between age and income for each society. In this study, we investigate income distribution and its relationship with age and identify a stable joint distribution function for age and income within the United Kingdom and the United States. We demonstrate a flexible calibration methodology using panel and population surveys and capture the characteristic differences between the UK and the US populations. The model here presented can be utilised for forecasting income and planning pensions. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00848&r= |
| By: | Denis Dupré (STEEP - Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy - Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | The issues of private property and survival are intimately intertwined in Francis of Assisi's vision of the radical imagination as defined by Castoriadis. His concept of property pulverizes the classical usus fructus abusus and replaces it with charity. Today a pragmatic philosophical reading of Pope Francis' encyclical Laudate Si illuminates a very Franciscan approach to property. It is the analysis of the means of access to basic food for survival that has given rise to the concept of common goods, in the sense of Ostrom, defined by Polanyi: land, money and work. For today, and taking into account possible collapses, we think it is useful to rely on these approaches to reform our institutions and put them at the service of survival for all. |
| Abstract: | Les questions de la propriété privée et de la survie sont intimement mêlées chez François d'Assise en une vision qui témoigne de l'imagination radicale telle que définie par Castoriadis. Son concept de propriété pulvérise le classique usus fructus abusus et le remplace par la charité. Aujourd'hui une lecture philosophique pragmatique de l'encyclique Laudate Si du pape François éclaire une approche très franciscaine de la propriété. C'est l'analyse des moyens d'accès à la nourriture de base pour la survie qui a fait apparaitre le concept des biens communs, au sens d'Ostrom, définis par Polanyi : la terre, la monnaie et le travail. Pour aujourd'hui et en tenant compte des effondrements possibles, nous pensons utile de nous appuyer sur ces approches pour réformer nos institutions et les mettre au service de la survie pour tous. |
| Abstract: | Le questioni della proprietà privata e della sopravvivenza sono intimamente intrecciate nella visione di Francesco d'Assisi dell'immaginazione radicale come definita da Castoriadis. Il suo concetto di proprietà polverizza il classico usus fructus abususus e lo sostituisce con la carità. Oggi una lettura filosofica pragmatica dell'enciclica Laudato Si' di Papa Francesco illumina un approccio molto francescano alla proprietà. È l'analisi dei mezzi di accesso al cibo di base per la sopravvivenza che ha dato origine al concetto di beni comuni, nel senso di Ostrom, definito da Polanyi: terra, denaro e lavoro. Per oggi e tenendo conto dei possibili crolli, pensiamo che sia utile contare su questi approcci per riformare le nostre istituzioni e metterle al servizio della sopravvivenza di tutti. |
| Keywords: | radical imagination,environmental justice,Polanyi,Castoriadis,property,Francis of Assisi',pope Francis,common good,survival |
| Date: | 2021–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03279027&r= |
| By: | Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); María Emma Santos (IIESS-Departamento de Economía-Universidad Nacional del Sur and CONICET.); Leopoldo Tornarolli (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This chapter discusses the measurement of monetary and multidimensional poverty in Latin America, and documents the main patterns and trends. By providing an updated assessment of the level, changes and characteristics of poverty in the region we expect to contribute to the more ambitious debate on its determinants and policy implications. |
| JEL: | I3 I32 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0284&r= |
| By: | Bailey, Nick (University of Glasgow); Guio, Anne-Catherine |
| Abstract: | In 2018, EU Member States adopted a 17-item scale to measure child deprivation and monitor progress in their fight against child poverty. This indicator will be collected in future each three years via an ad hoc module of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). Previous research has shown how deprivation measures can be implemented more efficiently and with minimal information loss using adaptive testing, at least in the context of a single country. This paper examines the scope to implement the adaptive approach in a multi-national context with wide variations in deprivation levels and potentially in cultural preferences for consumption. The paper shows that the adaptive approach works effectively in this context. Time savings of around 40 per cent can be achieved with very minimal information losses both at the EU level and at the level of each individual country. Time savings are much greater in countries with lower deprivation. The adaptive approach may therefore offer particular advantages in a multi-national context as it can provide a consistent measure for all participating countries while targeting survey time and resources where they are most needed. |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mvqnf&r= |
| By: | Jones, Stephen R. G. (McMaster University); Lange, Fabian (McGill University); Riddell, W. Craig (University of British Columbia, Vancouver); Warman, Casey (Dalhousie University) |
| Abstract: | The Canadian labour market experienced a period of unprecedented turmoil following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the main changes using standard labour force statistics and new data on job postings. Envisaging a phase of temporary severing of employment relationships followed by a phase of more standard labour market search and matching, we use stock and flow data to understand key developments. We find dramatic changes in employment, unemployment and labour market attachment in 2020 and, looking forward to 2021, signs of an unusual recovery with co-existing strong labour demand and stubborn persistence in depressed employment rates. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, coronavirus, job loss, unemployment, employment, transition rates |
| JEL: | E24 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14588&r= |
| By: | Sui-Jade Ho; Ozer Karagedikli |
| Abstract: | By conducting a high-frequency event study similar to Gürkaynak et al. (2005), we find that two factors are needed to adequately capture the effects of monetary policy announcements for a non-inflation targeting emerging market economy, Malaysia. These factors are the surprise changes in the policy rate (Overnight Policy Rate, OPR) and the information about the future path of monetary policy. We find that the path factor has a strong influence on long-term government bond yields, corporate bond yields and spreads. Our findings are indicative of the view that monetary policy communication is mostly about revealing information pertaining to the central bank’s assessment of the economic outlook, as opposed to an unconditional binding commitment to follow a specific policy path. |
| JEL: | J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-67&r= |
| By: | Asif Lakhany; Andrej Pintar; Amber Zhang |
| Abstract: | Accurately fitting the term structure of interest rates is critical to central banks and other market participants. The Nelson-Siegel and Nelson-Siegel-Svensson models are probably the best-known models for this purpose due to their intuitive appeal and simple representation. However, this simplicity comes at a price. The difficulty in calibrating these models is twofold. Firstly, the objective function being minimized during the calibration procedure is nonlinear and has multiple local optima. Secondly, there is strong co-dependence among the model parameters. As a result, their estimated values behave erratically over time. To avoid these problems, we apply a heuristic optimization method, specifically the Genetic Algorithm approach, and show that it is able to construct reliable interest rate curves and stable model parameters over time, regardless of the shape of the curves. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01760&r= |
| By: | De Bandt Olivier; Jacolin Luc; Lemaire Thibault |
| Abstract: | Using panel data covering 126 low- and middle-income countries over 1960-2017, we find that sustained positive temperature deviations from their historical norms have a non-linear negative effect on economic growth and growth per capita. A sustained 1°C temperature increase lowers real GDP per capita annual growth by 0.74–1.52 percentage points, irrespective of levels of development. We also find that temperature rise affects the households’ intertemporal trade-off between consumption and investment, since the share of private consumption in total value-added increases while the share of investment declines. A sectoral decomposition shows that the share of industrial value-added also declines. While the share of agricultural value-added increases, agricultural output and productivity declines. Taken together, our results suggest that global warming will reinforce development traps, hindering further adaptation to climate change, particularly in the countries with the lowest levels of income given their lower resilience and higher socioeconomic vulnerability. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Economic Growth, Adaptation, Developing Countries |
| JEL: | C33 E20 O11 O13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:822&r= |
| By: | Hashim Almusawi (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School); Arash Farnoosh (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School) |
| Abstract: | Many challenges facing the current and the future governments of Iraq, and one of these challenges is the situation of the power sector in the country. This study is about finding economic optimization scenarios for Iraq power mix, as the country is in dire need to minimize its power generation costs and finding the ultimate power mix structure that can help in developing the country for the better. Mean Variance Approach (MVA) is used to optimize the national power mix. It considers various costs that are involved in the power generation and the associated risks of using a particular power generation technology. The three main generation power technologies that were taken into account are gasturbines, thermal a nd diesel power stations in addition to the electricity imported and the generated electricity by the independent power producers (IPPs). The study proposes an optimization scenario balancing between the involved costs and risks associated with the power mix. The optimal scenario is to use around 47% gas turbines, 14% thermal, 0.04% diesel, 2% hydro and 33% IPPs. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Planning,Energy Policy,Iraq,Portfolio theory,Mean-Variance |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03292662&r= |
| By: | Gregori Galofré-Vilà (Universidad Pública de Navarra & INARBE); María Gómez-León (Universidad Pública de Navarra & INARBE) |
| Abstract: | Using annual mortality rates at the provincial level for men and women, we construct a Gini index to estimate changes in regional health inequalities since 1860 in Spain. We find a long steady decline in health inequality across provinces from 1860 until today, interrupted only by World War I and the Spanish Civil War. Franco’s 40-year legacy in terms of health is one of health inequality. Today, regional differences across provinces are at their lowest historical levels. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nav:ecupna:2103&r= |
| By: | Piergiorgio Alessandri; Haroon Mumtaz |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2005. We show that the conditional (ex-ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate conditions less predictable across countries, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperatures, a +1oC increase in temperature volatility causes on average a 0.9 percent decline in GDP growth and a 1.3 percent increase in the volatility of GDP. Unlike changes in average temperatures, changes in temperature volatility affect both rich and poor countries. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01617&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | This report describes an effort to provide for the Appalachian Region a clearer picture of the implications for the Power Industry Ecosystem (PIE) of power generating technology transitions and the geographical variations in PIE impacts. We develop and implement three measures that reveal meaningful characteristics of the PIE at the county level in terms of industry and place-based PIE dependence, changes in PIE-dependent employment, and susceptibility to impacts from a continued energy sector transition. We then use these three measures—Dependence, Impact, and Risk—to form a typology that we apply to identify and focus on counties in three identifiable categories: Hardship counties, Vulnerable counties, and Depressed counties. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Energy, Supply Chains, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 O13 R15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2021rp06&r= |
| By: | Giuffrida, Leonardo M.; Raiteri, Emilio |
| Abstract: | Does workload constitute a bottleneck to a public agency's mission, and if so, to what extent? We ask these questions in the context of the US government's procurement of R&D. We link tender, contract, patent, and office records to the identity of the officer responsible for the procurement process to estimate how workload in the federal acquisition unit affects the execution of R&D contracts. The identification comes from unanticipated retirement shifts among contracting officers, which we use to instrument workload. We find a large increase in patenting at the extensive margin when the same officer is exposed to a declining workload. In our sample, an additional contracting officer in the procurement unit, holding fixed the procurement budget and number of purchases, leads to a two percentage point increase in the probability for an R&D contract to generate patents. We provide suggestive evidence that backlogged contracting officers are unable to devote enough time to tender and contract specifications. |
| Keywords: | Workload,Public Procurement,Contracting Officer,R&D,Patents |
| JEL: | D23 H57 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21059&r= |
| By: | Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Cabaero, Carlos C. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the extent of social deprivation, if any, among the poor and other segments of the community. Specifically, it aims to illustrate the characteristics of social networks that poor families have through social network analysis (SNA). It inquires on the questions – How are the poor situated within the community network? Are they isolated, excluded, or integrated? To examine social inclusion or exclusion, this study uses social relations data (i.e. kinship and friendship ties) gathered in 2016 on all households residing in a rural, fishing village in the Philippines. Its primary objective is to draw insights for developing or improving efforts towards social and economic inclusion of the poor. <p> Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, social inclusion, Social network analysis, social exclusion, inclusive development |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-49&r= |
| By: | Claudia Biancotti (Bank of Italy); Oscar Borgogno (Bank of Italy); Giovanni Veronese (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Official statistics serve as an important compass for policymakers due to their quality, impartiality, and transparency. In the current post-pandemic environment of great uncertainty and widespread disinformation, they need to serve this purpose more than ever. The wealth of data produced by the digital society (e.g. from user activity on online platforms or from Internet-of-Things devices) could help official statisticians improve the salience, timeliness and depth of their output. This data, however, tends to be locked away within the private sector. We argue that this should change and we propose a set of principles under which the public and the private sector can form partnerships to leverage the potential of new-generation data in the public interest. The principles, compatible with a variety of legal frameworks, aim at establishing trust between data collectors, data subjects, and statistical authorities, while also ensuring the technical usability of the data and the sustainability of partnerships over time. They are driven by a logic of incentive compatibility and burden sharing. |
| Keywords: | data governance, business-to-government data access, official statistics |
| JEL: | C82 F53 L38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_629_21&r= |
| By: | Xiang Zhang (emlyon business school); Yangyi Liu; Kun Wu; Bertrand Maillet |
| Abstract: | We investigate the difference in pricing cross-sectional risky assets performance between tradable and nontradable factors by comparing their misspecification errors—the Hansen–Jagannathan (HJ) distance. By constructing nontradable factors mimicking portfolios (FMPs) and incorporating them into the least-misspecified tradable stochastic dis-count factor (SDF), we provide cross-country empirical evidence that this SDF that combines tradable and nontradable factors dominates others in which nontradable factors further decrease the SDF's mis-specification errors. Since nontradable FMPs are functions of current tradable factor information about the economic state, FMPs "hedge" the state variable risks, and FMPs' returns describe the risk premiums. |
| Keywords: | Tradable and nontradable factors,Hansen–Jagannathan distance,Misspecification errors,Factors mimicking portfolios |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03287946&r= |
| By: | Ooms, Tahnee |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a methodological framework to better incorporate non-labour income into existing top adjusted indicators of economic inequality. Surveys are known to miss the rich, receiving disproportionate amounts of capital income. There has been a surge in top harmonisation methodologies, which complement survey-based estimates of inequality with information from the rich reported in tax administrative sources. These harmonisation methods are found to have a significant upward effect on inequality indicators. This analysis uses the Family Resources Survey (household survey) and the Survey of Personal Incomes (tax data) to explore the extent to which existing UK harmonisation methodology corrects for capital income. First, this analysis finds that the FRS has experienced a significant decline in capital income measurement over the past 20 years (1997–2016), taking reported levels of capital income in the SPI as benchmark. Second, the top harmonisation methodology is found to only partially correct for this decline. Third, in response, the paper proposes a multi-step capital income correction to allocate the remaining capital income missing from top adjusted inequality indicators. The adjustment accounts for both under-coverage and under-estimation error of capital income across the income distribution. Poor measurement of capital incomes in household surveys has long been acknowledged but attempts to correct for this have remained few. This paper highlights the need for decomposable top adjusted indicators of inequality to give a better picture of the role of capital incomes in driving inequality. Surveys are traditionally used to produce inequality indicators used by governments, statistical offices and policy makers. The policy implication is that income missing from indicators structurally falls out of inequality debates, which has arguably been the case for capital incomes. |
| Keywords: | Capital income correction; Household survey; Income tax; Inequality indicators; Top income adjustments; Springer |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108900&r= |
| By: | Dario Laudati; M. Hashem Pesaran |
| Abstract: | This paper considers how sanctions affected the Iranian economy using a novel measure of sanctions intensity based on daily newspaper coverage. It finds sanctions to have significant effects on exchange rates, inflation, and output growth, with the Iranian rial over-reacting to sanctions, followed up with a rise in inflation and a fall in output. In absence of sanctions, Iran’s average annual growth could have been around 4 - 5 per cent, as compared to the 3 per cent realized. Sanctions are also found to have adverse effects on employment, labor force participation, secondary and high-school education, with such effects amplified for females. |
| Keywords: | newspaper coverage, identification of direct and indirect effects of sanctions, Iran output growth, exchange rate depreciation and inflation, labor force participation and employment, secondary education, and gender bias |
| JEL: | E31 E65 F43 F51 F53 O11 O19 O53 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9217&r= |
| By: | Mathithibane, Mpho Steve |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the growth of agricultural insurance markets for low-income farmers in Southern Africa for the period 2010 to 2020. Agricultural insurance products for low-income farmers are typically based on weather index insurance contracts. These insurance contracts are cost-effective responses to uninsured agricultural risk in developing economies, and are often considered part of effective ex-ante climate change adaptation strategies. The approach followed in this paper is to assess the extent of FDI transactional flows based on a literature review of past and present pilots as well as market-based weather index insurance schemes. The findings revealed that FDI is relatively low to support weather index insurance development and there exists massive scale for expansion and economic growth opportunities. The study advocates for an improved policy environment with a focus on increasing agricultural productivity among low-income farmers while promoting parallel climate change mitigation strategies, this is likely to have spill-over effects on the acceleration and development of appropriate insurance solutions. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, weather index insurance, Southern African Development Community, Southern African. |
| JEL: | Q14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108890&r= |
| By: | Wagner, Amina |
| Abstract: | Self-disclosure is ubiquitous in today’s digitized world as Internet users are constantly sharing their personal information with other users and providers online, for example when communicating via social media or shopping online. Despite offering tremendous benefits (e.g., convenience, personalization, and other social rewards) to users, the act of self-disclosure also raises massive privacy concerns. In this regard, Internet users often feel they have lost control over their privacy because sophisticated technologies are monitoring, processing, and circulating their personal information in real-time. Thus, they are faced with the challenge of making intelligent privacy decisions about when, how, to whom, and to what extent they should divulge personal information. They feel the tension between being able to obtain benefits from online disclosure and wanting to protect their privacy. At the same time, firms rely on massive amounts of data divulged by their users to offer personalized services, perform data analytics, and pursue monetization. Traditionally, privacy research has applied the privacy calculus model when studying self-disclosure decisions online. It assumes that self-disclosure (or, sometimes, usage) is a result of a rational privacy risk–benefit analysis. Even though the privacy calculus is a plausible model that has been validated in many cases, it does not reflect the complex nuances of privacy-related judgments against the background of real-life behavior, which sometimes leads to paradoxical research results. This thesis seeks to understand and disentangle the complex nuances of Internet users’ privacy-related decision making to help firms designing data gathering processes, guide Internet users wishing to make sound privacy decisions given the background of their preferences, and lay the groundwork for future research in this field. Using six empirical studies and two literature reviews, this thesis presents additional factors that influence self-disclosure decisions beyond the well-established privacy risk–benefit analysis. All the studies have been published in peer-reviewed journals or conference proceedings. They focus on different contexts and are grouped into three parts accordingly: monetary valuation of privacy, biases in disclosure decisions, and social concerns when self-disclosing on social networking sites. The first part deals with the value Internet users place on their information privacy as a proxy for their perceived privacy risks when confronted with a decision to self-disclose. A structured literature review reveals that users’ monetary valuation of privacy is very context-dependent, which leads to scattered or occasionally even contradictory research results. A subsequent conjoint analysis supplemented by a qualitative pre-study shows that the amount of compensation, the type of data, and the origin of the platform are the major antecedents of Internet users’ willingness to sell their data on data selling platforms. Additionally, an experimental survey study contrasts the value users ascribe to divulging personal information (benefits minus risks) with the value the provider gets from personal information. Building on equity theory, the extent to which providers monetize the data needs to be taken into account apart from a fair data handling process. In other words, firms cannot monetize their collected user data indefinitely without compensating their users, because users might feel exploited and thus reject the service afterwards. The second part delineates the behavioral and cognitive biases overriding the rational tradeoff between benefits and privacy risks that has traditionally been assumed in privacy research. In particular, evaluability bias and overconfidence are identified as moderators of the link between privacy risks and self-disclosure intentions. In single evaluation mode (i.e., no reference information available) and when they are overconfident, Internet users do not take their perceived privacy risks into account when facing a self-disclosure decision. By contrast, in joint evaluation mode of two information systems and when users are realistic about their privacy-related knowledge, the privacy risks that they perceive play a major role. This proof that mental shortcuts interact with privacy-related judgments adds to studies that question the rational assumption of the privacy calculus. Moving beyond privacy risks, the third part examines the social factors influencing disclosure decisions. A structured literature review identifies privacy risks as the predominantly studied impediment to self-disclosure on social networking sites (SNS). However, a subsequent large scale survey study shows that on SNS, privacy risks play no role when users decide whether to self-disclose. It is rather the social aspects, such as the fear of receiving a negative evaluation from others, that inform disclosure decisions. Furthermore, based on a dyadic study among senders and receivers of messages on SNS, it is shown that senders are subject to a perspective-taking bias: They overestimate the hedonic and utilitarian value of their message for others. In this vein, these studies combine insights from social psychology literature with the uniqueness of online data disclosure and show that, beyond the potential misuse of personal information from providers, the risk of misperception in the eyes of other users is crucial when explaining self-disclosure decisions. All in all, this thesis draws from different perspectives – including value measuring approaches, behavioral economics, and social psychology – to explain self-disclosure decisions. Specifically, it shows that the privacy calculus is oversimplified and, ultimately, needs to be extended with other factors like mental shortcuts and social concerns to portray Internet users’ actual privacy decision making. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:127804&r= |
| By: | Jesse Bricker; Sarena F. Goodman; Alice Henriques Volz; Kevin B. Moore |
| Abstract: | We use the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to advance U.S. wealth analysis along several dimensions. We develop a comprehensive framework that modifies the SCF to recover the wealth distribution over families, tax units, and individuals from 1989 to 2019. We show that, by ignoring unequal holdings within families, existing estimates considerably understate U.S. inequality across individuals. We find wealth concentration rose through the recent economic recovery, which differs from leading models that capitalize income into wealth even after aligning conceptual differences. We illustrate that private businesses are a growing impediment to accurately modeling wealth from income. |
| Keywords: | Wealth measurement; Intra-household allocation; Wealth distribution |
| JEL: | H23 J11 D14 D31 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-53&r= |
| By: | Ali, Shabbir; Nadeem, Ahmed |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this research is to empirically examine how factors like socio-emotional competencies, socio-economic factors, and employability process which are separate elements influence the employment status. We have employed SEM technique through Smart PLS. We have targeted the graduates who aged between 22-45 and above in Karachi, Pakistan. 250 participants are chosen as sample size in this research. According to this study SEC, SEF, and EP have an impact on both employed and unemployed employment status. These findings suggest a person’s employment status is affected by these factors (SEC, SEF, and EP) and these are the key factors for unemployed, employed, or self-employed people can be useful to know that what can affect their employment status. The momentum research adds to the writing by tracking down that all factors are similarly viable because this study supports all three factors i.e. (SEC, SEF, and EP), and shows their significant impact on Employment status. In the practical context, the following research will help the practitioners to implement these variables for better and responsive employee management. |
| Keywords: | Socio-emotional, Socio-economic, employability, PLS-SEM, Karachi |
| JEL: | A1 A14 M1 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108942&r= |
| By: | Lijun Bo; Shihua Wang; Xiang Yu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a mean field game (MFG) problem in a market with a large population of heterogeneous agents. Each agent aims to maximize the terminal wealth under a CRRA type relative performance, in which the interaction occurs by the competition with peers. We start from the model with n agents, in which the underlying risky assets subject to a common noise and contagious jump risk modelled by a multi-dimensional Hawkes process. With a continuum of agents, we formulate the MFG problem and characterize a deterministic mean field equilibrium in an analytical form, allowing us to investigate some impacts of model parameters in the limiting model and discuss the financial implications. More importantly, it is shown that this mean field equilibrium can serve as an approximate Nash equilibrium for the n-player game problem when n is sufficiently large. The explicit order of the approximation error is also derived. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00799&r= |
| By: | Frings, Hanna; Kamb, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data for West Germany, we study the relative importance of different determinants of the urban wage premium. More explicitly, we distinguish worker sorting, as well as portable and non-portable agglomeration effects. Our results indicate that worker sorting explains about two thirds of the urban-rural wage gap. We show that the estimated fraction of the urban wage premium attributed to worker sorting differs considerably depending on the selectivity of the sample used for identification and provide guidance how this selectivity can be reduced. Agglomeration effects explain about one third of the urban wage premium, with portable and non-portable agglomeration effects being of similar importance. |
| Keywords: | Urban wage premium,sorting,agglomeration |
| JEL: | R23 J31 J60 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:916&r= |
| By: | Ayaita, Adam |
| Abstract: | Labor market discrimination is a topic of considerable societal and economic relevance and may lead to suboptimal management decisions. Previous research indicates that labor market discrimination against applicants with an ethnic minority background is at least partly explained by employer beliefs about unobserved personality characteristics, such as lower conscientiousness or lower agreeableness. In this preregistered study, I investigate whether and to what extent these beliefs are statistically justified, as predicted by the theory of statistical discrimination (understood as discrimination based on statistically accurate beliefs). To this aim, I test differences in personality characteristics between individuals with an ethnic minority vs. majority background, using data from a large representative sample of the adult population in Germany. Analogously to field experiments showing ethnic discrimination, only individuals who have completed secondary schooling in Germany are considered and the qualification level is held constant between individuals. The results indicate that statistical ethnic differences are mostly insignificant and always estimated to be smaller than the experimentally observed discrimination. Therefore, there is only partial support for statistical discrimination, and the results suggest that mistaken or exaggerated stereotypes might contribute to ethnic discrimination in the labor market. |
| Keywords: | beliefs,bias,discrimination,ethnic background,labor market,statistical discrimination |
| JEL: | D83 D91 J15 J71 M51 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:236615&r= |
| By: | Muhammad Amir Ingratubun (IPB University, Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Natural Resources Curse, known as Dutch Disease, is because of capital inflow which promotes in-crease growth and employment level. Indonesia suffers from Dutch Disease working in reverse be-cause of capital outflow, increase unemployment and poverty, and growth retardations from its borrowing from the ADB. I termed this as Dutch Curse because of the colonial connection the Indonesian and Dutch have since the early 17th century. The Dutch Curse is constantly inflicting Indonesia since 1969 because of ADB loans and their disbursement conditionalities. To resolve these issues, it takes more than just the realignment of Indonesia and ADB cooperation, but also moral responsibility and conscious awareness. |
| Keywords: | Dutch disease, Dutch curse, disbursement delays, unsustainable development, negative impact, poverty, unemployment, wealth leakages |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01251&r= |
| By: | Mark Horridge; Elizabeth L. Roos |
| Abstract: | Countries that export energy or minerals often feel that they would be richer if the commodities could be processed onshore rather than overseas. In this way, it is thought, 'value-adding' could occur locally, raising local GDP. Such countries may subsidize local use of the exportable commodity. The strategy, which involves 'picking winners', is not obviously sensible. Why not sell at the higher, export, price? If a subsidy to local industry were needed, why not offer an explicit subsidy, rather than a hidden subsidy in the form of cheaper inputs. A more orthodox economic approach would stress that prosperity is based on: * human capital (a skilled and well-educated workforce); * good infrastructure (eg, good roads and reliable electricity); * good governance (not too much red tape or corruption); * and, with luck, valuable natural resources! The focus of this study is Indonesia's effort to use more natural gas locally rather exporting it. To further this aim, domestic users are offered natural gas at a price below the export (world) price. There is in effect a subsidy to local use of natural gas. Using INDORANI, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Indonesia, we simulate the effect of removing this subsidy. |
| Keywords: | Regional modelling gas subsidies Indonesia |
| JEL: | C68 H21 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-317&r= |
| By: | Jeff Larrimore; Jacob Mortenson; David Splinter |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was very different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience large annual earnings declines and a similar share of male and female workers had large earnings declines. While most workers experiencing large annual earnings declines do not receive unemployment insurance, over half of beneficiaries were made whole in 2020, as unemployment insurance replaced a median of 103 percent of their annual earnings declines. After incorporating unemployment insurance, the likelihood of large earnings declines among low-earning workers was not only smaller than during the Great Recession, but also smaller than in 2019. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Wage earnings; Stimulus checks; Unemployment insurance; Countercyclical policy |
| JEL: | D31 E24 H53 J30 J65 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-52&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Gi-Eu Lee (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Sara Farhangdoost (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In support of economic development practitioners’ efforts to devise strategies that can align with both industrial clustering and industrial diversification, this report provides a wide range of relevant measures and metrics. In addition to standard regional analysis tools like coefficients of specialization, location quotients, and growth rates, we introduce two fundamentally new measures for understanding the nature of regional clusters. These measures focus on the industries that anchor the clusters and characterize their strength and regional dominance. The former measures the share of the anchor industry’s direct and indirect requirements that could be satisfied by regional industries, and the latter measures the share of the regional economy that is potentially oriented to the cluster anchor. We then apply an algorithm that identifies anchors and industries that might be further developed to strengthen the region’s industrial clusters. The design of the analysis commonly leads to the identification of different clusters, and thereby points to opportunities to strengthen within and diversify across clusters. Results of these analyses for all 120 micro- and metropolitan regions wholly within the Appalachian region are reported in the supplements to this methodological overview. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development, Industrial Strategy, Industry Clustering, Industrial Diversification |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R15 |
| Date: | 2021–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2021rp05&r= |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Ravi Kanbur; Benjamin Stanwix; Amy Thornton (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | The rights of workers contained in labour law are multidimensional, yet analysts tend to concentrate on compliance one dimension at a time. How should we conceptualise and measure compliance with labour law in its totality? This paper draws on the multidimensional poverty literature to propose a measure of multidimensional labour law violation, which allows a quantification of the contribution of compliance along different dimensions. This index is applied to South Africa to illustrate its workings and the insights it can provide on the nature and granular structure of labour law compliance and worker vulnerability. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional, labour law, violation, compliance, index of violation, South Africa, worker vulnerability |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202002&r= |
| By: | Mecheri Chakib (LISTIC - Laboratoire d'Informatique, Systèmes, Traitement de l'Information et de la Connaissance - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc, LAMIH - Laboratoire d'Automatique, de Mécanique et d'Informatique industrielles et Humaines - UMR 8201 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France) |
| Abstract: | The company transformations linked to the transition to Industry 4.0 have a significant impact on humans, the environment, and society and represent a real competitive advantage for improving industrial performance. Ethics appears to be a means of ensuring both a "good for all" integration of human and artificial elements in the production systems of the future and a guarantee of long-term performance. The question then arises as to how to take ethics into account in this context. As a preliminary step to this consideration, a bibliographical study on the key notions of Industry 4.0, ethics, and performance is carried out, and industrial testimonies are transcribed to validate the analyses that will be made. The notion of ethics in Industry 4.0 will thus be defined and its paradigms illustrated in the context of the company practice. As an opening to future work, an approach for identifying ethical risks in Industry 4.0 is proposed and operationalised through a guideline applied to the implementation of a new information system (MES) in the NTN-SNR company, that is a partner in this study. Finally, a discussion of the results and perspectives concludes the study. |
| Abstract: | Les transformations de l'entreprise liées au passage à l'Industrie 4.0 ont un impact important sur l'humain, l'environnement et la société et représentent un véritable avantage concurrentiel pour l'amélioration de la performance industrielle. L'éthique apparaît comme un moyen d'assurer à la fois une intégration "bonne pour tous" des éléments humains et artificiels dans les systèmes de production du futur et une garantie de performance à long terme. Se pose alors la question de la prise en compte de l'éthique dans ce contexte. En guise d'étape préliminaire à cette prise en compte, une étude bibliographique autour des notions clés d'Industrie 4.0, d'éthique et de performance est menée, de même que des témoignages industriels est retranscrit à des fins de validations des analyses effectuées. La notion d'éthique dans l'Industrie 4.0 sera ainsi définie et ses paradigmes illustrés au vu de la pratique des entreprises. En guise d'ouverture aux travaux à venir, une démarche d'identification des risques éthiques dans l'Industrie 4.0 est proposée et opérationnalisée au travers d'un guideline appliqué à la mise en place d'un nouveau système d'information (MES) dans l'entreprise NTN-SNR, partenaire de cette étude. Finalement, une discussion des résultats suivie par des perspectives concluent l'étude menée. |
| Keywords: | Performance,Ethical risks,Ethics paradigms,Industry 4.0,Risques éthiques,Paradigmes éthiques,Industrie 4.0,Ethique,Témoignages industriels |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03282188&r= |
| By: | Hossain Ahmed Taufiq |
| Abstract: | Non-governmental organisations have made a significant contribution in the development of Bangladesh. Today, Bangladesh has more than 2000 NGOs, and few of them are among the largest in the world. NGOs are claimed to have impacts on the sustainable development in Bangladesh. However, to what extent they have fostered equity and social inclusion in the urban cities of Bangladesh remains a subject of thorough examination. The 11th goal of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) advocates for making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. Bangladesh which is the most densely populated country in the world faces multifaceted urbanization challenges. The capital city Dhaka itself has experienced staggering population growth in last few decades. Today, Dhaka has become one of the fastest growing megacities in the world. Dhaka started its journey with a manageable population of 2.2 million in 1975 which now reached 14.54 million. The growth rate averaged 6 per cent each year. As this rapid growth of Dhaka City is not commensurate with its industrial development, a significant portion of its population is living in informal settlements or slums where they experience the highest level of poverty and vulnerability. Many NGOs have taken either concerted or individual efforts to address socio-economic challenges in the city. Earlier results suggest that programs undertaken by NGOs have shown potential to positively contribute to fostering equity and reducing social exclusion. This paper, attempts to explore what types of relevant NGO programs are currently in place taking the case of Dhaka city. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13716&r= |
| By: | Tyler, Emily; Hochstetler, Kathryn |
| Abstract: | Strong climate institutional governance is necessary for countries to meet their international climate mitigation commitments. This article shows that while South Africa steadily created climate institutions up to 2011, these failed to take hold in the following years. Also, despite the systemically critical energy sector dominating the emissions profile, these climate institutions had no purchase over it. This situation is largely due to South Africa’s political economy of energy, which gave powerful actors the sustained ability to block meaningful institutionalisation of decarbonisation in the energy sector. As a result, South Africa’s climate institutions play few of the roles expected for successful institutionalization of climate action, with energy institutions instead playing a shadow climate governance role. This case suggests that conceptions of climate institutional governance in countries where single sectors dominate in emissions and power must accommodate the roles of institutions affecting climate outcomes despite this not being their primary objective. |
| Keywords: | climate institutions; just transition; minerals-energy complex; socio-economic transformation; South Africa; 19-1905-153965-CLS |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111482&r= |
| By: | Fukushige, Tatsuya; Fitch, Dillon PhD; Handy, Susan |
| Abstract: | Dock-less, electric bike-share services offer cities a new transportation option with the potential to improve environmental, social, and health outcomes. But these benefits accrue only if bike-share use replaces car travel. The purpose of this study is to examine factors influencing whether bike-share substitutes for driving and the degree to which and under what circumstances bike-share use reduces car travel. Major findings in this report include (1) bike-share in the Sacramento region most commonly substitutes for car and walking trips, (2) each bike in the Sacramento bike-share fleet reduces users’ VMT by an average of approximately 2.8 miles per day, (3) areas with a higher proportion of low-income households tend to use bike-share less, (4) bike-share availability appears to induce new trips to restaurants and shopping and for recreation, (5) bike-share trips from commercial and office areas were more likely to replace walking or transit trips, while bike-share trips from non-commercial areas (and trips to home or restaurants) were more likely to replace car trips, (6) expanding the bike-share service boundary at the same fleet density decreases system efficiency and VMT reductions per bike. Our result suggests the need for an efficient rebalancing strategy specific to areas by time of day to increase the service efficiency and its benefits. Further analysis of the data used in this study to examine questions such as how bike share can improve transit connections and factors inducing bike use at the individual level will contribute to the development of more robust models and provide additional insights for bike share operation strategies and policy implementation. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Bicycles, vehicle sharing, electric vehicles, shared mobility, travel demand, travel behavior, travel surveys, demographics, e-scooters, electric bicycles |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0x373679&r= |
| By: | Thiago Scarelli (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); David Margolis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Frictional labor markets impose a fundamental trade-off: individuals may work on their own at any time, but can only take a potentially better-paid wage job after spending some time looking for it, suggesting that intertemporal considerations affect how people choose their occupation. We formalize this intuition under the job search framework and show that a sufficiently high subjective discount rate can justify the choice for own-account work even when it pays less than wage work. With this simple model, we estimate a lower bound for the discount rate that is implicit in the occupational choice of urban own-accountworkers in Brazil. We find that at least 65% of those workers appear to discount the future at rates superior to those available in the credit market, which suggests constrained occupational choice. Finally, we show that the es- timated time preference lower bound is positively associated with food, clothing, and housing deprivation. |
| Keywords: | Financial constraints,Developing countries,Self-employment,Own-account work,Time discounting,Brazil |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03288728&r= |
| By: | Tabios, Guillermo Q. III; de Leon, Tomas Paolo Z. |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the irrigation service areas of Angat-Maasim River Irrigation System (AMRIS) and Pampanga Delta Irrigation Systems (PDRIS) benchmarked against design area water availability, land use (including flood vulnerability), and status of irrigation facilities using resource assessment and watershed and irrigation modeling. The study finds that irrigation area of AMRIS fell below design area due to urbanization, lowered height of Bustos Dam, complicated by competing use of water for hydropower. Likewise, the PDRIS system only realized half of the target irrigation service area due to urbanization, flooding, and the low diversion dam height of Cong Dadong Dam. Among others, the study recommends conduct of periodic appraisal or assessment of the efficiency of irrigation water delivery operations through hydraulic model simulations to maintain and upgrade the irrigation facility as needed. |
| Keywords: | irrigation system, , irrigation water delivery operation, hydraulic model simulation |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-11&r= |
| By: | Patthira Phon-ngam |
| Abstract: | East-West Economic Corridor (EWEC) has originated from the cooperation of the countries in the Great Mekong Basin Sub-Region which consists of China, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand. The purpose of this route is to create economic opportunity expectedly to generate more income and reduce poverty for the countries in this region . The length of this road is 1,450 kilometers. 950 of the 1,450 kilometers is in Thailand from Mukdahan Province to Tak Province. It will be the route of international cooperation based on warm friendship and trust in both social and economic aspects The promotion of business investment, travel and services, as well as human resource development will contribute to the development of the area. EWEC may cause the impact on this region in many ways higher security risk along cross border, political problems, drugs, international crime, illegal labors, worker trading, infectious disease, including the destruction of natural resources Key Words: Economic Corridor, Free Follow, Environmental Issues |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-08&r= |
| By: | Henning, Christian H. C. A.; Petri, Svetlana; Diaz, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Electoral competition is considered a control mechanism to guarantee a good performance of the government. However, in real life it often leads to a distorted policy implementation due to Government Capture and low Government Accountability. Therefore, the analysis of voter behavior is a key factor to understand government performance. More specifically, if voters choose more policy and retrospectively oriented, the government has greater incentives to implement efficient policies. In this sense, if voters have more information on politics, they are more likely to base their decision on policy issues. To assess changes in voter behavior, we carried out a political experiment, where information about the performance of the Senegalese government was delivered to a randomly selected group of voters. Then, based on election surveys data collected before and after the information signal, a probabilistic voter model with latent class using a panel data set was developed. Additionally, to evaluate changes in the relative importance of the three voting motives (policy, non-policy and retrospective), marginal effects and relative marginal effects were estimated. As expected, after the information signal, the relative importance of the policy and the retrospective components increased significantly. [...] |
| Keywords: | probabilistic voter model,capture,accountability,agricultural policy,Senegal,Africa |
| JEL: | Q18 C33 C35 C38 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202011&r= |
| By: | Lucile Marty (CSGA - Centre des Sciences du Goût et de l'Alimentation [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Laura Arrazat (CSGA - Centre des Sciences du Goût et de l'Alimentation [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Gaëlle Arvisenet (CSGA - Centre des Sciences du Goût et de l'Alimentation [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sophie Nicklaus (CSGA - Centre des Sciences du Goût et de l'Alimentation [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stephanie Chambaron (CSGA - Centre des Sciences du Goût et de l'Alimentation [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | A 2-arm randomised control trial (with and without labels) will be conducted to test the effects of an environmental label on food choices in a virtual supermarket. A sample of 130 participants will take part in two shopping tasks: 1/ selection of 3 products to prepare a home-made dish, and 2/ selection of a ready-to-eat dish. These two tasks will be repeated for two scenarios: 1/ participants will be asked to select the foods for usual meals, and 2/ participants will be asked to select the foods for environmentally-friendly meals. This experimental design will allow to compare food choices in the presence vs. the absence of an environmental label and to investigate whether the label is informative and likely to help individuals to choose more environmental-friendly food options when explicitly asked to do so. |
| Keywords: | labelling,food choice |
| Date: | 2021–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03270668&r= |
| By: | Szabolcs Deak (Department of Economics, University of Exeter); Paul Levine (School of Economics, University of Surrey); Afrasiab Mirza (Department of Economics, University of Birmingham); Joseph Pearlman (Department of Economics, City University London) |
| Abstract: | We study the design of monetary policy rules robust to model uncertainty across a set of well-established DSGE models with varied financial frictions. In our novel forward-looking approach, policymakers weight models based on relative forecasting performance. We find that models with frictions between households and banks forecast best during periods of financial turmoil while those with frictions between banks and firms perform best during tranquil periods. However, a model without financial frictions performs nearly as well as models with financial frictions on average. The optimal robust policy is close to a price-level rule which is key when facing uncertainty over the nature of financial frictions. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian estimation, DSGE models, financial frictions, forecasting, prediction pools, optimal simple rules |
| JEL: | D18 D91 Z1 C9 |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2104&r= |
| By: | Nicholas Ryan (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Green energy is produced by relationship-speciï¬ c assets that are vulnerable to hold-up if contracts are not strictly enforced. I study the role of counterparty risk in the procurement of green energy using data on the universe of solar procurement auctions in India. The Indian context allows clean estimates of how risk affects procurement, because solar power plants set up in the same states, by the same ï¬ rms, are procured in auctions variously intermediated by either risky states themselves or the central government. I ï¬ nd that: (i) the counterparty risk of an average state increases solar energy prices by 10%; (ii) the intermediation of the central government eliminates this risk premium; (iii) higher prices due to risk reduce investment, because state demand for green energy is elastic. The results suggest that the risk of hold-up places developing countries at a disadvantage in the procurement of green energy. |
| JEL: | L14 O13 Q42 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2294&r= |
| By: | Enste, Peter; Cramer, Elena |
| Abstract: | Digitale Anwendungen spielen im Gesundheitsbereich zunehmend eine Rolle, um die professionelle Versorgung zu optimieren. Dabei ist es wichtig, nicht nur technisch einwandfrei funktionierende Lösungen zu entwickeln, sondern diese explizit auf die Bedürfnisse der Anwender*innen und Nutzer*innen anzupassen. Für diese soziale Adaption kann die ELSIForschung (ethische, rechtliche und soziale Implikationen) einen wichtigen Beitrag leisten, um eine hohe Nutzerfreundlichkeit zu gewährleisten. Während es für die Bestimmung von ethischen und rechtlichen Aspekten etablierte Verfahren gibt, sind die sozialen Aspekte nicht immer trennscharf. Die sozialen Aspekte der ELSI Forschung werden anhand des 'GerNe digital!' Projektes mit quantitativen und qualitativen Methoden beleuchtet und damit konkrete Bedarfe sowie Lösungsmöglichkeiten aufgezeigt. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iatfor:052021&r= |
| By: | Khalifa, Sherin; Henning, Christian H. C. A. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the mechanisms of climate change impacts on the incidence of civil conflict are tested separately in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for the period 1981 to 2015. We draw several conclusions: (i) Climate has a significant impact on economic development, through economic growth rate in the MENA, and food production in SSA. (ii) Economic growth rate and food production index are significant indicators for social stability reduce the risk of civil conflict, in SSA and MENA, respectively. (iii) A direct impact of climate change on civil conflict is identified. (iv) Conflict in the previous year increases the probability of civil conflict in SSA by 0.30 pp, and in the MENA by 0.50 pp. Moreover, as the type of political system and accountability are important control variables in SSA, water availability reduces the risks of conflict in the MENA region. However, there appears to be evidence of different mechanisms in different regions. However, the identification of stable mechanisms needs to be precisely addressed in future work. |
| Keywords: | Climate impact mechanisms,conflict,economic development,MENA,SSA |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202003&r= |
| By: | Eiji Yamamura |
| Abstract: | A tailor-made internet survey experiment provides individuals with information on their income positions to examine their effects on subjective well-being. In the first survey, respondents were asked about their household income and subjective well-being. Based on the data collected, three different respondents' income positions within the residential locality, within a group of the same educational background, and cohort were obtained. In the follow-up survey for the treatment group, respondents are informed of their income positions and then asked for subjective well-being. Key findings are that, after obtaining information, a higher individual's income position improves their subjective well-being. The effects varied according to individual characteristics and proxies. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11185&r= |
| By: | Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Kok Sørensen, Christoffer; Rottner, Matthias |
| Abstract: | Could a monetary policy loosening in a low interest rate environment have unintended recessionary effects? Using a non-linear macroeconomic model fitted to the euro area economy, we show that the effectiveness of monetary policy can decline in negative territory until it reaches a turning point, where monetary policy becomes contractionary. The framework demonstrates that the risk of hitting the rate at which the effect reverses depends on the capitalization of the banking sector. The possibility of the reversal interest rate gives rise to a novel motive for macroprudential policy. We show that macroprudential policy in the form of a countercyclical capital buffer, which prescribes the build-up of buffers in good times, substantially mitigates the probability of encountering the reversal rate and increases the effectiveness of negative interest rate policies. This new motive emphasizes the strategic complementarities between monetary policy and macroprudential policy. |
| Keywords: | Reversal Interest Rate,Negative Interest Rates,MacroprudentialPolicy,Monetary Policy,ZLB |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E52 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:242021&r= |
| By: | Jin Hyuk Choi; Kim Weston |
| Abstract: | We prove the existence of incomplete Radner equilibria in two models with exponential investors and different types of noise traders: an exogenous noise trader and an endogenous noise tracker. In each model, we analyze a coupled system of ODEs and reduce it to a system of two coupled ODEs in order to establish equilibrium existence. As an application, we study the impact of the noise trader types on welfare. We show that the aggregate welfare comparison depends in a non-trivial manner on every equilibrium parameter, and there is no ordering in general. Our models suggest that care should be used when drawing conclusions about welfare effects when noise traders are used. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00973&r= |
| By: | Pierre Berthonnaud; Simon Gollier; Pierre Harguindeguy,; Déborah Leboullenger,; Sandrine Lecarpentier,; Emmanuel Point,; Clément Torres. |
| Abstract: | La pandémie liée au Covid-19 a provoqué un choc économique sans précédent dans le monde : ainsi le Produit intérieur brut a enregistré une chute de 7,9% en France en 2020, pénalisé notamment par les mesures de confinement prises au printemps. L’ampleur des politiques publiques de soutien à l’économie a toutefois permis d’amortir fortement l’impact de la crise sanitaire, comme l’illustre le nombre très faible de défaillances d’entreprises enregistrées en France en 2020. Dans ce contexte, les banques ont répondu rapidement et massivement aux importants besoins de financement des acteurs économiques, d’abord via les tirages de lignes de crédit ou par des rachats de titres de dettes détenus par les fonds monétaires, puis en octroyant aux entreprises des prêts garantis par l’État (PGE). Elles ont également contribué activement au financement des ménages, en maintenant par exemple une production de crédits à l’habitat en France équivalente à celle de 2019, qui était historiquement élevée. Au total, la taille des bilans des banques françaises a crû de façon marquée en 2020 sous l’effet d’une distribution de crédit très dynamique en réponse à la crise. |
| Keywords: | rentabilité, coût du risque, solvabilité |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:analys:123&r= |
| By: | Ganserer, Angelika |
| Abstract: | Temporary agency work and outsourcing to a service contractor are two forms of alternative work arrangements with rather complex legal aspects which firms use for external staffing. The regulatory complexity of temporary agency work can lead to intended or unintended non-compliance when firms outsource to a service contractor. In this paper, I provide first evidence for non-compliance with temporary agency work regulations when firms contract out on the basis of a unique new firm survey. By exploiting a choice experiment, I demonstrate that firms do understand the regulatory baseline of temporary agency work, although detailed knowledge often seems to be missing. Non-compliance with regulations therefore often results from ignorance of the legal grayzone. |
| Keywords: | temporary agency work,contracting out,compliance,choice experiment |
| JEL: | K31 J41 J83 M55 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21057&r= |
| By: | Harald Hau (University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI); Swiss Finance Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)); Yi Huang (Graduate Institute of International and CEPR); Hongzhe Shan (Swiss Finance Institute, Swiss Finance Institute, Students); Zixia Sheng (New Hope Financial Services) |
| Abstract: | Based on automated credit lines to more than two million vendors trading on Alibaba’s online retail platform, we show how the take-up of FinTech credit varies with the entrepreneur’s bank distance. Proximity to the branches of the five largest stateowned banks correlates positively with the take-up of FinTech credit and suggests more severe credit frictions for Chinese e-commerce vendors close to such banks. We use a discontinuity in the credit decision algorithm to document that a firm’s credit approval and credit use boost a vendor’s sales and transaction growth. Entrepreneurial growth after access to FinTech credit is largest for younger e-commerce firms and in the month of first-time credit approval. |
| Keywords: | FinTech, credit constraints, micro credit, entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | G20 G21 O43 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2147&r= |
| By: | Emmanuel Lépinette (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Duc Vu |
| Abstract: | How to compute (super) hedging costs in rather general financial market models with transaction costs in discrete-time ? Despite the huge literature on this topic, most of results are characterizations of the super-hedging prices while it remains difficult to deduce numerical procedure to estimate them. We establish here a dynamic programming principle and we prove that it is possible to implement it under some conditions on the conditional supports of the price and volume processes for a large class of market models including convex costs such as order books but also non convex costs, e.g. fixed cost models. |
| Keywords: | Hedging costs,European options,Dynamic programming principle,No-arbitrage condition,AIP condition,Random set theory,Lower semicontinuity |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03284655&r= |
| By: | Ingrid Huitfeldt; Andreas R. Kostol; Jan Nimczik; Andrea Weber |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new method to study how workers’ career and wage profiles are shaped by internal labor markets (ILM) and job hierarchies in firms. Our paper tackles the conceptual challenge of organizing jobs within firms into hierarchy levels by proposing a data-driven ranking method based on observed worker flows between occupations within firms. We apply our method to linked employer-employee data from Norway that records fine-grained occupational codes and tracks contract changes within firms. Our findings confirm existing evidence that is primarily based on case studies for single firms. We expand on this by documenting substantial heterogeneity in the structure and hierarchy of ILMs across a broad range of large firms. Our findings on wage and promotion dynamics in ILMs are consistent with models of careers in organizations. |
| Keywords: | internal labor markets, organization of labor, wage setting |
| JEL: | J31 J62 M50 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9227&r= |
| By: | Eduardo Abi Jaber (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 UFR27 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR Mathématiques & Informatique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | We establish an explicit expression for the conditional Laplace transform of the integrated Volterra Wishart process in terms of a certain resolvent of the covariance function. The core ingredient is the derivation of the conditional Laplace transform of general Gaussian processes in terms of Fredholm's determinant and resolvent. Furthermore , we link the characteristic exponents to a system of non-standard infinite dimensional matrix Riccati equations. This leads to a second representation of the Laplace transform for a special case of convolution kernel. In practice, we show that both representations can be approximated by either closed form solutions of conventional Wishart distributions or finite dimensional matrix Riccati equations stemming from conventional linear-quadratic models. This allows fast pricing in a variety of highly flexible models, ranging from bond pricing in quadratic short rate models with rich autocorrelation structures, long range dependence and possible default risk, to pricing basket options with covariance risk in multivariate rough volatility models. |
| Keywords: | Wishart processes,Gaussian processes,Fredholm's determinant,quadratic short rate models,rough volatility models |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02367200&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Cameroon, the largest economy in the Central African Economic and Monetary Union (CEMAC), continues to face the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the onset of the pandemic, the IMF’s Executive Board has approved two disbursements under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) totaling SDR 276 million, about US$ 382 million or 100 percent of Cameroon’s quota. Cameroon’s last arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) ended in September 2020, without completion of the sixth and final review. The authorities have requested new arrangements from the IMF to help maintain external sustainability, implement their ambitious reform agenda—laid out in the National Development Strategy for 2020-30 (SND30)—and catalyze financial support from other donors. |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/181&r= |
| By: | García, Jorge Luis (Clemson University); Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago); Ronda, Victor (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates multiple beneficial impacts of a program promoting inter-generational mobility for disadvantaged African-American children and their children. The program improves outcomes of the first-generation treatment group across the life cycle, which translates into better family environments for the second generation leading to positive intergenerational gains. There are long-lasting beneficial program effects on cognition through age 54, contradicting claims of fadeout that have dominated popular discussions of early childhood programs. Children of the first-generation treatment group have higher levels of education and employment, lower levels of criminal activity, and better health than children of the first-generation control group. |
| Keywords: | early childhood education, intergenerational mobility, racial inequality, social mobility |
| JEL: | J13 I28 C93 H43 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14575&r= |
| By: | Luna Yue Huang; Solomon M. Hsiang; Marco Gonzalez-Navarro |
| Abstract: | The rigorous evaluation of anti-poverty programs is key to the fight against global poverty. Traditional approaches rely heavily on repeated in-person field surveys to measure program effects. However, this is costly, time-consuming, and often logistically challenging. Here we provide the first evidence that we can conduct such program evaluations based solely on high-resolution satellite imagery and deep learning methods. Our application estimates changes in household welfare in a recent anti-poverty program in rural Kenya. Leveraging a large literature documenting a reliable relationship between housing quality and household wealth, we infer changes in household wealth based on satellite-derived changes in housing quality and obtain consistent results with the traditional field-survey based approach. Our approach generates inexpensive and timely insights on program effectiveness in international development programs. |
| JEL: | C8 H0 O1 O22 Q0 R0 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29105&r= |
| By: | Khalifa, Sherin; Henning, Christian H. C. A. |
| Abstract: | We replicated the findings of Miguel and his co-authors, who find a significant negative relationship between economic shocks and the likelihood of civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 1981- 1999, using rainfall growth as an instrumental variable for the economic growth rate. The replication of this study is successfully performed. Furthermore, we apply a robustness test to the results using new cross-country panel data, with different measurements, and econometric specifications. The results appear to be sensitive to changes in data sources that use different methods of making the data available, although we find partly the same patterns between weather and economic growth rate, and between the income growth and the likelihood of civil conflict, like Miguel et al. (2004) for SSA period 1981-1999. |
| Keywords: | Rainfall,economic growth rate,conflict,Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202002&r= |
| By: | Stéphane Verani; Pei Cheng Yu |
| Abstract: | We show that the supply of life annuities in the U.S. is constrained by interest rate risk. We identify this effect using annuity prices offered by U.S. life insurers from 1989 to 2019 and exogenous variations in contract-level regulatory capital requirements. The cost of interest rate risk management accounts for at least half of the average life annuity markups or eight percentage points. The contribution of interest rate risk to annuity markups sharply increased after the great financial crisis, suggesting new retirees' opportunities to transfer their longevity risk are unlikely to improve in a persistently low interest rate environment. |
| Keywords: | Life insurance; Annuities; Corporate bond market; Retirement; Interest rate risk |
| JEL: | G10 G22 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-44&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Ghana has been hit hard by the pandemic. The government’s proactive response helped contain the spread of COVID-19, protecting lives and limiting the impact on economic activity. However, partly because of the pandemic, the fiscal position worsened considerably last year, with a sharp increase in public sector debt. |
| Date: | 2021–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/165&r= |
| By: | Nkosi, Mfundo; Dikgang, Johane; Kutela Gelo, Dambala; Pholo, Alain |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of countries around the world have linked taxes with passenger vehicle carbon dioxide (CO2) emission rates. Policymakers use vehicle and fuel taxes to target and reduce transportation greenhouse gas emissions. In 2010, the South African government joined this group, linking taxes to passenger-vehicle CO2-emission rates by introducing the vehicle CO2 tax, to reduce the carbon output of the new vehicle fleet by incentivising the purchase of more fuel-efficient vehicles. However, there is little evidence of the relative efficacy of this measure in South Africa. Based on new-vehicle sales data from 2010 to 2012, single-group interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) reveals that CO2 taxes reduced average carbon emissions only marginally. This prompted the vehicle-CO2 tax reforms of 2013. Based on subsequent new-vehicle sales data, from 2013 to 2018, we find that the reforms have led to significant CO2 reductions. Overall, CO2 taxes moved consumer preference to low-emission vehicles (i.e., vehicles in the band producing less than 120g/km), and discouraged the purchase of bigger, heavier and more powerful vehicles. They also had a great effect on average emissions; by 2018, average carbon emissions had declined by 21% compared to 2010, to 151g/km. Moreover, there is some evidence that the tax has affected the mix of new vehicles that vehicle manufacturers sell in the South African market, as the volume of low carbon intensity new vehicles increased significantly, to 31% of total sales in 2018 compared to 13% in 2010. |
| Keywords: | CO2,emissions,taxes,vehicles |
| JEL: | H31 L62 Q41 Q54 R48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:236726&r= |
| By: | Golnaz Shahtahmassebi; Lascelles Wright |
| Abstract: | Online trading has attracted millions of people around the world. In March 2021, it was reported there were 18 million accounts from just one broker. Historically, manipulation in financial markets is considered to be fraudulently influencing share, currency pairs or any other indices prices. This article introduces the idea that online trading platform technical issues can be considered as brokers manipulation to control traders profit and loss. More importantly it shows these technical issues are the contributing factors of the 82% risk of retail traders losing money. We identify trading platform technical issues of one of the world's leading online trading providers and calculate retail traders losses caused by these issues. To do this, we independently record each trade details using the REST API response provided by the broker. We show traders log activity files is the only way to assess any suspected profit or loss manipulation by the broker. Therefore, it is essential for any retail trader to have access to their log files. We compare our findings with broker's Trustpilot customer reviews. We illustrate how traders' profit and loss can be negatively affected by broker's platform technical issues such as not being able to close profitable trades, closing trades with delays, disappearance of trades, disappearance of profit from clients statements, profit and loss discrepancies, stop loss not being triggered, stop loss or limit order triggered too early. Although regulatory bodies try to ensure that consumers get a fair deal, these attempts are hugely insufficient in protecting retail traders. Therefore, regulatory bodies such as the FCA should take these technical issues seriously and not rely on brokers' internal investigations, because under any other circumstances, these platform manipulations would be considered as crimes and connivingly misappropriating funds. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14055&r= |
| By: | Raffelhüschen, Bernd |
| Abstract: | Die Unzulänglichkeiten der Alterssicherungssysteme in Deutschland und insbesondere der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung, in ausreichendem Maße auf den demographischen Wandel zu reagieren und sich an diesen - im Sinne der Generationengerechtigkeit - anzupassen, sind seit Jahrzehnten bekannt. Der coronabedingte Wirtschaftseinbruch beschleunigt letztlich nur die (Finanzierungs-)Probleme, die bei Fortführung des Status quo ohnehin unabwendbar sind, und erhöht den Reformdruck auf die Politik. Noch aber sträuben sich viele politisch Verantwortliche, die Bürger mit unbequemen Wahrheiten zu konfrontieren. Das ist in mehrerer Hinsicht fatal, vor allem aber, weil es die Menschen in falscher Sicherheit wiegt, obwohl ohne mehr Eigenverantwortung in der Zukunft keine ausreichende Alterssicherung mehr möglich sein wird. Hier setzt diese Publikation an und greift die Frage auf, wie eine für alle Menschen auskömmliche Altersvorsorge möglich ist. Nur wenn es gelingt, die kapitalgedeckte betriebliche und private Altersvorsorge zu stärken, hat auch die gesetzliche Rente eine Chance, als leistungs- und generationengerechtes Versicherungssystem dauerhaft weiterzubestehen. Der seit einiger Zeit um sich greifende "sozialpolitische" Irrweg, die Alterssicherung der Menschen ausschließlich über die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung und dort über Sonderauszahlungen, denen keine Einzahlungen gegenüberstehen, "armutsfest" zu machen, wäre hingegen der Anfang vom Ende einer verlässlichen und leistungsgerechten Rente, wie wir sie heute kennen. Es gibt bessere Alternativen, die Altersvorsorgesysteme in Deutschland zukunftsfähig zu machen. Wichtig ist, nicht alles auf eine Karte - die gesetzliche Rente - zu setzen, sondern die Herausforderung auf mehrere Systeme zu verteilen. Risikostreuung bewährt sich nicht nur bei der Kapitalanlage, sondern sollte auch als Leitlinie für die Altersvorsorge und die zur Verfügung stehenden Teilsysteme gelten. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:smwarg:156&r= |
| By: | Nitin Harak (ONGC Videsh Limited); A. Ganesh Kumar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | Natural gas as a source of clean fuel is important in many economies. With the increase of trade in gas led by LNG trade, market integration as occurred in other sectors is been promoted in various regions of the world. However, in India, the objective to address distributional concerns and domestic economic growth superseded the reform agenda with India adopting the market intervention approach of controlling energy prices. The policies were greatly focused towards the allocation of natural gas to priority sectors like fertiliser, city gas distribution, power, etc. at affordable prices as the output prices of these sectors are subsidised. The interlocking of subsidies of the demanding sector and ad-hoc pricing procedure adopted for gas pricing has resulted in a distorted market. As a result, natural gas share in primary energy consumption in India is about 8 percent as compared World average of 24 percent (2013). This paper examines the impacts of price reforms in the natural gas sector. In particular, the paper attempts to quantify the impacts of sequencing the pricing reforms under three plausible scenarios (a) introduce upstream price reform without introducing reforms in the consuming sectors i.e. fertiliser, power sector and city gas distribution (b) introduce price reform along with partial reforms in downstream reform by removing the prioritised gas allocation policy and allowing consuming sectors to pass the increase in energy price to the end-users and introduction of full reform i.e. price and quantity. Further, to stimulate the decision-making process for resolving the issues, the paper proposes policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas, Price reforms, General equilibrium modelling |
| JEL: | C68 N75 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-018&r= |
| By: | Hernán Vallejo |
| Abstract: | This article characterizes the Herfindahl Hirshman Index and its use by the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission of the United States, in their Horizontal Merger Guidelines. The characterization maps ranges of the index with the level of market concentration and its changes due to horizontal mergers and acquisitions, in terms of the number of firms operating in the market and the market share of the largest active firm. The article aims to provide alternative and graphic approaches that may contribute to analyze horizontal mergers and acquisitions in an easier and expedited way, from a market concentration perspective and before there are any changes in strategic interactions or market equilibria. |
| Keywords: | Horizontal Merger Guidelines, Herfi ndahl Hirshman Index, Market Concentrationand Enhanced Market Power |
| JEL: | L11 L22 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019422&r= |
| By: | Rani Dubey; Rekha Rani |
| Abstract: | ‘Food hygiene’ means all measures necessary for ensuring the safety wholesomeness and soundness of food at all stages from its growth, production, manufacture unit its final consumption. Young adults have inadequate knowledge about measures needed to prevent food borne illness. The objectives of this study were to assess the level of food hygiene awareness among secondary level students. Information concerning food hygiene awareness were collected using self administered questionnaire. A total 100 students participated in the study. It is critical for children to understand food related risks to preserve their health. The purpose of this study was to explore the inclusion of 13 to 19 years old students in food preparation activities and to determine their understanding of food related risks, food safety awareness and self reported practices in their domestic environment. Therefore the present study has made an honest attempt to study of food hygiene.awareness among secondary level students in Bulandshahar District of Uttar Pradesh state. Key Words: Food Hygiene, Awareness, Secondary level students. Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-03&r= |
| By: | Tarna Silue (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | E-money and financial inclusion are both development challenges for developing countries, the former contributing to improving tax mobilization and the latter to achieving particular sustainable development objectives. However, one of the central financial inclusion and e-money services providers is mobile network operators using mobile money. The latter is subject to numerous taxes that can affect their operations. The paper studies the incidence of the new mobile money excise duty in the mobile networks sector on the adoption of electronic money and the advancement of financial inclusion through digital services in sub-Saharan countries. It appears that the introduction of the tax leads to an increase in user fees, which has a positive impact on demand for cash, and it is only in the presence of the latter that MM reduces the demand for cash for studied countries. In addition, the study assumes that tax administrations in these countries would raise more revenue without this excise because the tax is not conducive to the full adoption of e-money. |
| Keywords: | Financial inclusion,Mobile money,Tax incidence |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03281898&r= |
| By: | Grossman, Gene M.; Helpman, Elhanan; Oberfield, Ezra; Sampson, Thomas |
| Abstract: | We study the determinants of factor shares in a neoclassical environment with capital-skill complementarity and endogenous education. In this environment estimates of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor that fail to account for human capital levels will be biased upward. We develop a model with overlapping generations, technology-driven neoclassical growth, and ongoing increases in educational attainment. For a class of production functions featuring capital-skill complementarity, a balanced growth path exists and is characterized by an inverse relationship between the rates of capital-and labor-augmenting technological progress and the capital share in national income. |
| Keywords: | neoclassical growth; balanced growth; human capital; education; technological progress; capital-skill complementarity; capital share; labor share |
| JEL: | E25 J24 O41 |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:106968&r= |
| By: | Mennicken, Andrea; Kornberger, Martin |
| Abstract: | In this article we explore (1) how the study of valuation practices can illuminate the relationships between comparison, classification, and measurement, and (2) how a focus on valuation practices can be used to critically analyze the conditions and consequences of new digital formats, such as comparison portals, recommender systems, and screening and scoring techniques. Departing from the view that value either resides in the mind of the subject (as preference) or is an objective property of a good, we argue that it is through valuation practices and technologies such as ratings, rankings, and other evaluative infrastructures that a good can be estimated as valuable or not. We develop an analytical framework for the study of interactive, digitized valuation technologies and propose that an analysis of such technologies can be enhanced by focusing on 1) evaluative infrastructures as regimes of valuation (as opposed to a narrow focus on individual devices); 2) protocol as the specific power effect of evaluative infrastructures, where, paradoxically (and in opposition to disciplinary power regimes), power is at once distributed and concentrated; and 3) the generative potential of such valuation regimes, i.e., the production of new values and categorizations through digital evaluative infrastructures (rather than performativity). |
| Keywords: | evaluative infrastructures; digitized valuation; commensuration; power; pragmatism; Springer deal |
| JEL: | M40 |
| Date: | 2021–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110925&r= |
| By: | Andersen, Torben M.; Bhattacharya, Joydeep |
| Abstract: | Governments, motivated by a desire to improve upon long-run laissez faire, routinely undertake enduring, productive expenditures, say, in public education, that generate positive externalities across cohorts but require investments be made up front. If everyone after the policy is initiated is at least as happy as before and there are some outstanding resources, the Hicks-Kaldor efficiency rule suggests that the present value of these resources could, hypothetically, be distributed to future generations creating the potential for generational Pareto improvement. The literature recognizes the challenge in constructing a policy that is actually Pareto-improving since the policy itself may generate general-equilibrium gains and losses spread across generations. The paper takes on this task. In a dynamically-efficient economy with an intergenerational human capital externality, it constructs an equilibrium path with public education financed by non-explosive debt and taxes that truly improves upon laissez faire, yet no generation is harmed along the transition, not even the current ones. |
| Date: | 2020–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202001010800001067&r= |
| By: | KAWAGUCHI Daiji; KITAO Sagiri; NOSE Manabu |
| Abstract: | Drawing on the original survey of Japanese firms during the COVID-19 pandemic, we estimate the impact of the crisis on firms' sales, employment and hours worked per employee and roles of Work-from-Home (WfH) arrangements in mitigating negative effects. We find that the lowered mobility, induced by the state of emergency declared by the government and fear of infection, significantly contracted firms' activities. On average, a 10% reduction in mobility reduced sales by 2.8% and hours worked by 2.1%, but did not affect employment. This muted employment response is consistent with limited changes in aggregate employment at the extensive margin during COVID-19 in Japan. We find that the adoption of WfH before COVID-19 mitigated the negative impact by 55% in terms of sales and by 35% in terms of hours worked. Adapting to the crisis environment by increasing the number of employees working from home is also found to moderately reduce the negative impact on sales and work hours. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21063&r= |
| By: | FUCHI Keigo |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes legal aspects of the digital services tax recently introduced in some countries. The paper points out several defects inherent in the tax. It also considers why such a tax was proposed and introduced. It is difficult to justify the tax within the traditional framework of international taxation. The objective of the tax is also unclear. Although the tax is apparently imposed on global digital enterprises, the tax burdens might actually fall on the consumers. In summary, the tax has many flaws, and it is difficult to rationalize from the perspective of tax policy. However, the tax has at least one distinct advantage over preexisting taxes. While traditional taxes have largely failed to include consumption for which consumers are not charged, the digital services tax incorporates this kind of consumption. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:21038&r= |
| By: | Stephen R.G. Jones; Fabian Lange; W. Craig Riddell; Casey Warman |
| Abstract: | The Canadian labor market experienced a period of unprecedented turmoil following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the main changes using standard labor force statistics and new data on job postings. Envisaging a phase of temporary severing of employment relationships followed by a phase of more standard labor market search and matching, we use stock and flow data to understand key developments. We find dramatic changes in employment, unemployment and labor market attachment in 2020 and, looking forward to 2021, signs of an unusual recovery with co-existing strong labor demand and stubborn persistence in depressed employment rates. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 I14 I18 I3 J21 J23 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29098&r= |
| By: | Matthieu Garcin (ESILV - Ecole Supérieure d'Ingénieurs Léonard de Vinci); Samuel Stéphan (ESILV - Ecole Supérieure d'Ingénieurs Léonard de Vinci, SAMM - Statistique, Analyse et Modélisation Multidisciplinaire (SAmos-Marin Mersenne) - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | In this article we compare the performances of a logistic regression and a feed forward neural network for credit scoring purposes. Our results show that the logistic regression gives quite good results on the dataset and the neural network can improve a little the performance. We also consider different sets of features in order to assess their importance in terms of prediction accuracy. We found that temporal features (i.e. repeated measures over time) can be an important source of information resulting in an increase in the overall model accuracy. Finally, we introduce a new technique for the calibration of predicted probabilities based on Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE). This calibration technique can be applied to very general calibration functions. In particular, we detail this method for the sigmoid function as well as for the Kumaraswamy function, which includes the identity as a particular case. We show that stacking the SURE calibration technique with the classical Platt method can improve the calibration of predicted probabilities. |
| Keywords: | Deep learning,credit scoring,calibration,SURE |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03286760&r= |
| By: | Tomás Marinozzi; Leandro Nallar; Sergio A. Pernice |
| Abstract: | Linear algebra is without a doubt a fundamental tool to deal with empirical economic problems. The goal of this paper is to use some of these techniques to treat business cycles. To do that, we present the classic ordinary least square approach to estime the coefficients of a detrended time series in addition to the matrix form of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filter. This is a paper is part of “Intuitive Mathematical Economic Series". |
| Keywords: | Linear Algebra, business cycles, trend. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:802&r= |
| By: | Emter, Lorenz (Central Bank of Ireland); Killeen, Neill (Central Bank of Ireland); McQuade, Peter (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This Note examines the factors associated with global banks’ cross-border claims on non-bank financial institutions. In line with the substantial growth of non-bank financial intermediation internationally, banks’ cross-border claims on non-bank financial institutions have grown rapidly in recent years. As a global hub for non-bank financial intermediation, Ireland hosts a large share of the non-bank financial institutions captured within these international banking data. Our results suggest that tightening (loosening) monetary policy can decrease (increase) cross-border bank claims on non-bank financial institutions at a global level. Moreover, we find that the tightening of borrower-based macroprudential policies is associated with an increase in cross-border bank flows to non-bank financial institutions. Our findings illustrate the potential for cross-border spillovers from changes to monetary and macroprudential policies and the importance of closely monitoring cross-border linkages between banks and non-bank financial institutions. Our findings also highlight the need for developing and operationalising the macroprudential policy framework for non-bank financial intermediation given the potential for spillover effects across the financial system. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:3/fs/21&r= |
| By: | Osvaldo Nina (Investigador Senior de INESAD); Daniela Berdeja (Investigadora Senior de INESAD) |
| Abstract: | La investigación realiza una revisión sistemática para evaluar las condiciones necesarias que permitirían que la cooperación intermunicipal promueva y genere impactos positivos en la provisión de servicios públicos. La estrategia utilizada para la revisión fue la denominada revisión rápida de evidencia, que permite sistematizar la evidencia sobre una política pública de manera tan exhaustiva como sea posible, utilizando de forma simplificada u omitiendo algunos pasos de las revisiones sistemáticas. El 65% de las 48 investigaciones seleccionadas fueron artículos publicados en revistas especializadas y el resto fue considerado literatura gris. La revisión rápida de evidencia ha comprobado que la cooperación intermunicipal ha logrado el aumento de la cobertura y la reducción de costos, especialmente para los municipios pequeños y medianos porque tuvieron más probabilidades de beneficiarse de la cooperación. Estos logros dependieron también de otros factores, como: el tipo de servicio, la capacidad de gestión de autoridades locales, el grado de la descentralización y la proximidad espacial. |
| Keywords: | Cooperación intermunicipal, gobierno local, asociación municipal, prestación de servicios públicos, América Latina . |
| JEL: | H70 H77 O18 N36 R51 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202102&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Gi-Eu Lee (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Sara Farhangdoost (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In support of economic development practitioners’ efforts to devise strategies that can align with both industrial clustering and industrial diversification, this report provides a wide range of relevant measures and metrics. In addition to standard regional analysis tools like coefficients of specialization, location quotients, and growth rates, we introduce two fundamentally new measures for understanding the nature of regional clusters. These measures focus on the industries that anchor the clusters and characterize their strength and regional dominance. The former measures the share of the anchor industry’s direct and indirect requirements that could be satisfied by regional industries, and the latter measures the share of the regional economy that is potentially oriented to the cluster anchor. We then apply an algorithm that identifies anchors and industries that might be further developed to strengthen the region’s industrial clusters. The design of the analysis commonly leads to the identification of different clusters, and thereby points to opportunities to strengthen within and diversify across clusters. Results of these analyses for all 120 micro- and metropolitan regions wholly within the Appalachian region are reported in the supplements to this methodological overview. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development, Industrial Strategy, Industry Clustering, Industrial Diversification |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R15 |
| Date: | 2021–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2021rp04&r= |
| By: | Lorenzo Cherubini (Brock University, Ontario, Canada) |
| Abstract: | The presentation discusses the first part of a multi-dimensional study including an innovative instructional strategy to further prospective teachers’ understanding of critical literacy. In a third-year undergraduate concurrent Education course of study, prospective teachers collaborate in small groups to produce a video presentation that examines the implications of a case-based dilemma (the course is delivered in Problem-Based model that includes a social-constructivist approach to learning). As a component of the video analysis, prospective teachers are required to consider the institutional dimensions of the hidden curriculum that potentially socializes secondary school students into dominant socio-political ideologies. The presentation will discuss how the video analyses assignment fosters prospective teachers’ understanding of culturally responsive pedagogy (CRP). It will detail how CPR can be envisioned differently by prospective teachers. The instructional strategy invites prospective teachers to think reflectively about how they will encourage secondary school students to be more critical of the socio-political implications of schooling and society. In the context of critical literacy, the instructional strategy fosters prospective teachers’ examination of how CRP can successfully expose secondary school students to the dominant ideologies and inequities that often contribute to the continued marginalization of certain groups in education and beyond. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01231&r= |
| By: | Andrei Markevich; Natalya Naumenko; Nancy Qian |
| Abstract: | This study constructs a large new dataset to investigate whether state policy led to ethnic Ukrainians experiencing higher mortality during the 1932–33 Soviet Great Famine. All else equal, famine (excess) mortality rates were positively associated with ethnic Ukrainian population share across provinces, as well as across districts within provinces. Ukrainian ethnicity, rather than the administrative boundaries of the Ukrainian republic, mattered for famine mortality. These and many additional results provide strong evidence that higher Ukrainian famine mortality was an outcome of policy, and suggestive evidence on the political-economic drivers of repression. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that bias against Ukrainians explains up to 77% of famine deaths in the three republics of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus and up to 92% in Ukraine. |
| JEL: | N14 O1 O13 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29089&r= |
| By: | Jeffrey P. Clemens; Jonathan M. Leganza; Alex Masucci |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade, the U.S. Medicare program has added new billing codes to enhance the financial rewards for Chronic Care Management and Transitional Care Management. We show that the take-up of these new billing codes is gradual and exhibits substantial variations across markets and physician groups, indicating that frictions to take-up may delay the impacts of payment reforms. We show that patterns of care and billing code substitution and complementarity can be important for assessing the costs and care access impacts of payment reforms. In our particular context, we estimate that the new Transitional Care Management codes had substantial impacts on the overall provision of evaluation and management services, flu vaccinations, and other recommended services, while the new Chronic Care Management codes did not. These patterns of complementarity shape both the costs and benefits of the introduction of these payment reforms, including the effects of the new billing codes on the overall return to specializing in primary care. |
| Keywords: | health care, health economics, payment systems, procurement |
| JEL: | H51 H57 I10 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9209&r= |
| By: | Kyle Greenberg; Michael Greenstone; Stephen P. Ryan; Michael Yankovich |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL), or the willingness to trade-off wealth and mortality risk, among 430,000 U.S. Army soldiers choosing whether to reenlist between 2002 and 2010. Using a discrete choice random utility approach and significant variation in retention bonuses and mortality risk, we recover average VSL estimates that range between $500,000 and $900,000, an order of magnitude smaller than U.S. civilian labor market estimates. Additionally, we fulfill Rosen's (1974) vision to recover indifference curves between wealth and non-market goods (e.g., mortality risk) and document substantial heterogeneity in preferences across types. We find that the VSL increases rapidly with mortality risk within type, and that soldiers in combat occupations have much lower VSLs than those in noncombat occupations. We estimate that the quadrupling of mortality risk from the Afghanistan and Iraq wars reduced annual welfare by $2,355 per soldier, roughly 8 percent of pay. |
| JEL: | J17 J31 J45 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29104&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Dosi (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Francesco Lamperti (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Mariana Mazzucato; Mauro Napoletano (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Andrea Roventini |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of alternative innovation policies on the short- and long-run performance of the economy, as well as on public finances, extending the Schumpeter meeting Keynes agent-based model (Dosi et al., 2010). In particular, we consider market-based innovation policies such as R&D subsidies to firms, tax discount on investment, and direct policies akin to the "Entrepreneurial State" (Mazzucato, 2013), involving the creation of public research oriented firms diffusing technologies along specific trajectories, and funding a Public Research Lab conducting basic research to achieve radical innovations that enlarge the technological opportunities of the economy. Simu- lation results show that all policies improve productivity and GDP growth, but the best outcomes are achieved by active discretionary State policies, which are also able to crowd-in private investment and have positive hysteresis effects on growth dynamics. For the same size of public resources allocated to market-based interventions, "Mission" innovation policies deliver significantly better aggregate performance if the government is patient enough and willing to bear the intrinsic risks related to innovative activities. |
| Keywords: | Innovation policy,mission-oriented R&D,entrepreneurial state,agent-based modelling |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03300295&r= |
| By: | Santiago Camara |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence of an informational effect in changes of the federal funds rate around FOMC announcements by exploiting exchange rate variations for a panel of emerging economies. For several FOMC announcements dates, emerging market economies' exchange rate strengthened relative to the US dollar, in contrast to what the standard theory predicts. These results are in line with the information effect, which denote the Federal Reserve's disclosure of information about the state of the economy. Using Jarocinski \& Karadi 2020's identification scheme relying on sign restrictions and high-frequency surprises of multiple financial instruments, I show how different US monetary policy shocks imply different spillovers on emerging markets financial flows and macroeconomic performance. I emphasize the contrast in dynamics of financial flows and equity indexes and how different exchange rate regimes shape aggregate fluctuations. Using a structural DSGE model and IRFs matching techniques I argue that ignoring information shocks bias the inference over key frictions for small open economy models. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01026&r= |
| By: | Cristina-Luiza Erimia (Ovidius University of Constanta, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In the context of a globalized economy, a functioning internal market of goods is an essential component of the current and future prosperity of the European Union. Taking into account that the harmonized legislation of the European Union has enshrined the principle of free movement of goods in concrete terms and for specific products, such as, for example, medicinal products, this article examines the restrictions and prohibitions which, even if raise barriers to free trade, they defend important objectives, such as human health. In the context of the current major global developments, the article aims to analyze how the reasons justifying the limiting of the free movement of goods, imposed by the principle of precaution for reasons of environmental and human health protection, have been used over time. In all EU policies, the concept of public health is inextricably linked to sustainable development and the effective protection of the health and life of citizens cannot be conceived without the greening of free movement of goods, more and more visible in recent years. At the same time, new innovative products and technical progress involve new challenges, and a national regulatory framework that ignores these developments may soon become an obstacle to cross-border trade. |
| Keywords: | public health, European internal market, Court of Justice of the European Union, innovative medicinal product, the principle of precaution, harmonized legislation |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01242&r= |
| By: | Michele Azzone; Roberto Baviera |
| Abstract: | Empirical studies have emphasized that the equity implied volatility is characterized by a negative skew inversely proportional to the square root of the time-to-maturity. We examine the short-time-to-maturity behavior of the implied volatility smile for pure jump exponential additive processes. An excellent calibration of the equity volatility surfaces has been achieved by a class of these additive processes with power-law scaling. The two power-law scaling parameters are $\beta$, related to the variance of jumps, and $\delta$, related to the smile asymmetry. It has been observed, in option market data, that $\beta=1$ and $\delta=-1/2$. In this paper, we prove that the implied volatility of these additive processes is consistent, in the short-time, with the equity market empirical characteristics if and only if $\beta=1$ and $\delta=-1/2$. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02447&r= |
| By: | Javier Aliaga Lordemann (Senior Associate Researcher at INESAD) |
| Abstract: | Common pool resources (CPRs) are usually exploited one generation after another – often overexploited - meaning there is an intergenerational link between the consumers – e.g., water for farming activities. This key dimension is often not considered in theoretical or field experiments, due to the difficultly in approaching it. We want to overcome this barrier introducing the hypothesis of ‘’intergenerational altruism” for CPRs. The implication is that altruism reduce the exploitation of the natural resources, since the agents recognize that the exploitation not only creates negative externalities for their own generation, but also for all future generations. An alternative hypothesis is the ‘’intergenerational equity’’ where the agents restrain their consumption to equalize their income over time. To prove these hypotheses, we conducted a field experiment in four farming communities located in the Bolivian Department of Chuquisaca during the third quarter of 2019. We consider common water for farming activities as a CPRs, since these communities use this resource for several decades, the intergenerational link is evident. Our intergenerational field experiment includes four treatments based on the replacement rate of the resources – i.e., FAST, SLOW, RESTART or normal replacement, under one-shot non-cooperative game without feedback. We also introduce two variations, the possibility to accumulate water in a dam, which modify the availability of CPRs. Second, the possibility to manage the common farming water through the traditional social arrangement of the Water Judge, which is a representative member of the community delegated to solve problems related with water management, named SAT treatment. The results showed that our hypothesis was not probed since the intergenerational link does not mitigate the overexploitation of CPRs. Nevertheless, we also found that the “Water Judge” could be a cost-effective treatment in small farming communities. |
| Keywords: | Common pool resources, intergenerational altruism and equity, free riders . |
| JEL: | C72 C92 D62 Q20 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202101&r= |
| By: | Filip Premik (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE)) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates effects of introduction of a universal child benefit program on female labor supply. Large scale government interventions affect economic outcomes through different channels of various magnitude and direction of the effects. In order to account for this feature, I develop a model in which a woman decides whether to participate in the labor market in a given period. I show how to use the resulting decision rules to explain flows in aggregate labor supply and simulate counterfactual paths of labor force. My framework combines flexibility of reduced form approaches with an appealing structure of dynamic discrete choice models. The model is estimated nonparametrically using recent advances in machine learning methods. The results indicate a 2-4 percentage points drop in labor force among the eligible females, mainly driven by changes in women's perceived trade-offs and beliefs that discouraged inflows. |
| Keywords: | child benefits, labor supply, program evaluation, difference-in-difference estimation, covariate balancing propensity score |
| JEL: | C21 C23 I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:54&r= |
| By: | Girsberger, Esther Mirjam (University of Technology, Sydney); Hassani Nezhad, Lena (Royal Holloway, University of London); Karunanethy, Kalaivani (University of Lausanne); Lalive, Rafael (University of Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | In July 2005, Switzerland introduced the first federal paid maternity leave mandate, offering 14 weeks of leave with 80% of pre-birth earnings. We study the mandate's impact on women's employment and earnings around the birth of their first child, as well as on their subsequent fertility by exploiting unique, rich administrative data in a difference-in-differences set-up. Women covered by the mandate worked and earned more during pregnancy, and also had temporarily increased job continuity with their pre-birth employer after birth. Estimated effects on other labor market outcomes are small or absent, and all dissipate by five years after birth. The mandate instead persistently increased subsequent fertility: affected women were three percentage points more likely to have a second child in the next nine years. Women living in regions that had greater early child care availability experienced a larger increase in subsequent fertility following the mandate, suggesting that child care complements paid maternity leave in helping women balance work and family. |
| Keywords: | female labor supply, maternity leave, return-to-work, earnings, fertility |
| JEL: | J1 J2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14605&r= |
| By: | KAWANISHI Takuya |
| Abstract: | This empirical examination assesses effects of ceasing the public trading of company stock, specifically the practice of "going-private," on subsequent corporate behavior. More specifically, this report identifies effects of going private transactions on corporate restructuring, investment, and innovation activities (patents, R&D) using Japanese going-private-type management buy-out (MBO) data. Firms that conducted public-to-private MBOs are matched with firms that have similar attributes to clarify empirically whether going private promotes corporate innovation activities or restructuring. The study described herein also tests factors underlying changes that occur after going private using a hypothesis related to motives for going private. According to the results, restructuring behaviors are observed after going private, but firm innovation activities are not confirmed among the MBO firms. Buyout funds enhance investment of MBO firms after the buyouts are completed, but they exhibit no effect on innovation activities. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21067&r= |
| By: | Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | The global economy continued to recover in the winter semester, despite the number of new infections with the coronavirus rising sharply and containment measures tightened again in many countries. Industrial production and world trade have already fully catched up with activity levels before the pandemic and appear to be little affected by the second wave of Covid-19. While the European economy did slip into recession again, the decline in GDP is not expected to be dramatic and should be followed by a strong recovery from spring onward, provided that progress in vaccination allows a substantial and sustained relaxation of measures designed to suppress the virus. In the course of this year, the global upturn will thus increasingly extend to economic sectors that remain severely impeded for the time being, such as tourism and entertainment, and to economies that are particularly geared to these activities. On a purchasing power parity basis, global output is expected to increase by 6.7 percent in 2021 and by 4.7 percent in 2022, thus progressively closing the gap to the pre-crisis path of activity towards the end of the forecast period. We have raised our December forecast by 0.6 percent for both this year and next, with a particularly strong improvement in the outlook for the United States. World trade in goods is expected to grow by 7.5 percent this year. With growth of 4.7 percent this year and next, respectively, Towards the end of the forecast horizon world trade will thus be even higher than expected before the crisis. |
| Keywords: | advanced economies,emerging economies,monetary policy,Americas,Asia,Business Cycle World,China,Emerging Markets & Developing Countries,Europe,USA |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:75&r= |
| By: | Kazunori Miwa (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | This study experimentally investigates the interaction between firms f information acquisition decisions and disclosure. In particular, I focus on a Cournot duopoly market under industry-wide demand uncertainty. The results demonstrate that acquiring industry-wide demand information improves firms f production decisions in that firms can adjust their quantity levels depending on the market demand. However, disclosure diminishes a firm fs incentive to acquire such information. This is because once the information, which a firm acquired at a cost, is subsequently disclosed, a rival firm can take a free ride on the disclosed information and make a more informed decision. Hence, disclosure decreases the benefit of acquiring information for the disclosing firm. Taken together, although acquiring information improves production decisions, disclosure decreases the incentive to do so and thus, deteriorates a firm fs internal information environment. This leads to inefficient production, which in turn might have a substantial impact on market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Information acquisition; Disclosure; Duopoly; Experiment |
| JEL: | L13 M41 M48 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1301r&r= |
| By: | Janet Currie; Anastasia Karpova; Dan Zeltzer |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the opening of a new urgent care center (UCC) on health care costs and the utilization of care among nearby Medicare beneficiaries. We focus on 2006–2016, a period of rapid UCC expansion. We find that total Medicare spending rises when residents of a zip code are first served by a UCC, relative to spending in yet-to-be-served zip codes, while mortality remains flat. We explore mechanisms by looking at categories of spending and by examining utilization. Increases in inpatient visits are the largest contributor to the overall increase in spending, rising by 6.65 percent within six years after UCC entry. The number of emergency room visits that result in a hospital admission also increases by 3.7 percent. In contrast, there is no change in the number of ER visits that do not result in admission to hospital, in visits to physicians outside a UCC, or in imaging and tests. Overall, these results provide little evidence that UCCs replace costly ER visits or that they crowd out visits to patients' regular doctors. Instead, the evidence is consistent with the possibility that UCCs—which are increasingly owned by or contract with hospital systems—induce greater spending on hospital care. |
| JEL: | I1 I11 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29047&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | Scarcity is inscribed in human fibres; it concerns the limited time of life of the individual, but also the survival of man. Sometimes it is natural with the depletion of mineral resources; sometimes it is the result of an economic system of domination and the expression of a political power of power. The security of a community depends as much on the existence and appropriate exercise of weapons systems or expressions of power as on the sense of relative incapacity of potential adversaries to engage in aggression against it. It is, however, a costly service, especially in the context of economic globalisation that produces growing inequalities. Moreover, economics is sometimes a weapon in a system of non-self-governing nations, artificially creating pockets of poverty through predation or political coercion. |
| Abstract: | La rareté est inscrite dans les fibres humaines, elle concerne le temps limité de vie de l'individu, mais aussi la survie de l'homme. Parfois elle est naturelle avec l'épuisement des ressources minières, parfois elle est le résultat d'un système économique de domination et l'expression d'un pouvoir politique de puissance. La sécurité d'une collectivité dépend autant de l'existence et de l'exercice adapté des systèmes d'armes ou d'expressions de puissance que du sentiment de l'incapacité relative des adversaires potentiels d'engager une agression à son encontre. Il s'agit cependant d'un service coûteux, notamment dans le contexte d'une globalisation économique productrices d'inégalités croissantes. En outre, l'économie est parfois une arme dans un système de nations non autarciques, en créant artificiellement des poches de pauvreté par la prédation ou la contrainte politique. |
| Keywords: | Economic conflicts,scarcity,economic warfare,inequality |
| Date: | 2020–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03295354&r= |
| By: | Taiwo Adetiloye |
| Abstract: | City logistics involves movements of goods in urban areas respecting the municipal and administrative guidelines. The importance of city logistics is growing over the years especially with its role in minimizing traffic congestion and freeing up of public space for city residents. Collaboration is key to managing city logistics operations efficiently. Collaboration can take place in the form of goods consolidation, sharing of resources, information sharing, etc. We investigate the problems of collaboration planning of stakeholders to achieve sustainable city logistics operations. Two categories of models are proposed to evaluate the collaboration strategies. At the macro level, we have the simplified collaboration square model and advance collaboration square model and at the micro level we have the operational level model. These collaboration decision making models, with their mathematical elaborations on business-to-business, business-to-customer, customer-to-business, and customer-to-customer provide roadmaps for evaluating the collaboration strategies of stakeholders for achieving sustainable city logistics operations attainable under non-chaotic situation and presumptions of human levity tendency. City logistics stakeholders can strive to achieve effective collaboration strategies for sustainable city logistics operations by mitigating the uncertainty effect and understanding the theories behind the moving nature of the individual complexities of a city. To investigate system complexity, we propose axioms of uncertainty and use spider networks and system dynamics modeling to investigate system elements and their behavior over time. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14049&r= |
| By: | Kalsbach, Oliver; Rausch, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Economists tend to view a uniform emissions price as the most cost-effective approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper offers a different view, focusing on economies where society values the well-being of future generations more than private actors. Employing analytical and numerical general equilibrium models, we show that a uniform carbon price is efficient only under restrictive assumptions about technology homogeneity and intertemporal decision-making. Non-uniform pricing spurs capital accumulation and benefits future generations. Depending on sectoral heterogeneity in the substitutability between capital and energy inputs, we find that optimal carbon prices differ widely across sectors and yield substantial welfare gains relative to uniform pricing. |
| Keywords: | Sectoral Carbon Pricing,Differentiated Carbon Taxes,Climate Policy,Social Discounting |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 Q43 H23 C61 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21060&r= |
| By: | Di Tommaso, Maria Laura (University of Turin); Contini, Dalit (University of Turin); De Rosa, Dalila (University of Torino); Ferrara, Francesca (University of Torino); Piazzalunga, Daniela (University of Trento); Robutti, Ornella (University of Torino) |
| Abstract: | We implement a teaching methodology aimed at improving primary school children's mathematical skills. The methodology, grounded in active and cooperative learning, focuses on peer interaction, sharing of ideas, learning from mistakes, and problem solving. We evaluate the causal effect of the intervention on the gender gap in mathematics in Italy with a randomized controlled trial. The treatment significantly improves girls' math performance (0.14 s.d.), with no impact on boys, and reduces the math gender gap by more than 40%. The effect is stronger for girls with high pre-test scores. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, mathematics, school achievement, primary school, active learning, teaching methodologies, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J16 C93 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14572&r= |
| By: | Nicoleta-Elena Heghes (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In this article we intend to highlight the particularities of the mediation procedure in the case of crimes of preventing the freedom to practice religion provided in article 381 of the Romanian Criminal Code. Mediation applies in criminal cases concerning offenses for which, according to the law, the withdrawal of the prior complaint or the reconciliation of the parties removes the criminal liability. According to the Criminal Code in force, crime of preventing the freedom to practice religion is one of those crimes that are subject to mediation. Mediation includes two phases: the phase preceding the mediation procedure, in which the parties come to find out about the advantages of mediation. Once they have taken note of this, the parties shall decide whether or not to accept the mediation and shall send the invitation to mediation to the opposing party through the mediator. A second phase is the actual mediation, which can take place in a single session or more, being both joint sessions and separate sessions, depending on the will of the parties. The mediation procedure can be concluded by a mediation agreement, by denouncing the mediation contract or the failure of the mediation is ascertained. |
| Keywords: | religious freedom, crime, parties, prior complaint, criminal mediation |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01253&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Gi-Eu Lee (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Sara Farhangdoost (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In support of economic development practitioners’ efforts to devise strategies that can align with both industrial clustering and industrial diversification, this report provides a wide range of relevant measures and metrics. In addition to standard regional analysis tools like coefficients of specialization, location quotients, and growth rates, we introduce two fundamentally new measures for understanding the nature of regional clusters. These measures focus on the industries that anchor the clusters and characterize their strength and regional dominance. The former measures the share of the anchor industry’s direct and indirect requirements that could be satisfied by regional industries, and the latter measures the share of the regional economy that is potentially oriented to the cluster anchor. We then apply an algorithm that identifies anchors and industries that might be further developed to strengthen the region’s industrial clusters. The design of the analysis commonly leads to the identification of different clusters, and thereby points to opportunities to strengthen within and diversify across clusters. Results of these analyses for all 120 micro- and metropolitan regions wholly within the Appalachian region are reported in the supplements to this methodological overview. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development, Industrial Strategy, Industry Clustering, Industrial Diversification |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R15 |
| Date: | 2021–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2021rp03&r= |
| By: | Spackman, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper is a contribution to the understanding and development of social discounting regimes. It first addresses three, often overlooked implications of how public funding differs from private financing by debt and equity. One implication is that the cost of systematic (income-correlated) risk in public service benefits does not fall as a rate of return, but as an absolute reduction in the value of the benefits. This is quantitatively important. Another is that, while ‘social opportunity cost’ discounting can for some governments be the best practicable option for most cost benefit analysis, it is unsuitable for other applications, which require lower rates. This can be handled by a hybrid regime. Third, with ‘social time preference’ discounting it is usually assumed that the cost of public funding should be handled by an explicit shadow price (≥1) for public spending. However a value-for-money approach, optimising spending from given, constrained budgets, is in important ways superior. The paper then examines US Federal and United Kingdom central government conventions, illustrating hybrid and value-for-money regimes, and also illustrating the difficulties of establishing and maintaining analytically rigorous social discounting procedures in practice. |
| Keywords: | Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy |
| JEL: | F3 G3 E6 J1 |
| Date: | 2021–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111490&r= |
| By: | Stefan Berens; Lasha Chochua; Gerald Willmann |
| Abstract: | We study the stability of trade policy arrangements under two regulatory scenarios, with/without PTAs. Unlike previous papers, we consider an extensive set of trade policy constellations and allow for unlimited farsightedness of negotiating parties. We find global free trade (GFT) to be uniquely stable under symmetry, with/without PTAs. When two countries are smaller (larger) than the third, availability of PTAs decreases (increases) the stability of GFT. Away from symmetry, GFT is not attainable, and without PTAs the non-cooperative MFN regime is the only stable outcome. The effect of (dis-)allowing PTAs thus depends on the size asymmetry of countries. |
| Keywords: | trade policy arrangements, stability, unlimited farsightedness |
| JEL: | F13 F55 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9213&r= |
| By: | Andrey Malenko; Nadya Malenko; Chester S. Spatt |
| Abstract: | The quality of proxy advisors' voting recommendations is important for policymakers and industry participants. We analyze the design of recommendations (available to all market participants) and research reports (available only to subscribers) by a proxy advisor, whose objective is to maximize its profits from selling information to shareholders. We show that even if all shareholders’ interests are aligned and aim at maximizing firm value, the proxy advisor benefits from biasing its recommendations against the a priori more likely alternative. Such recommendations “create controversy” about the vote, increasing the probability that the outcome is close and raising each shareholder's willingness to pay for advice. In contrast, it serves the interest of the proxy advisor to make private research reports unbiased and precise. Our results help reinterpret empirical patterns of shareholders’ voting behavior. |
| JEL: | D72 D82 D83 G34 K22 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29036&r= |
| By: | Paccoud, Antoine; Hesse, Markus; Becker, Tom; Górczyńska, Magdalena |
| Abstract: | The issue of land and its ownership remains under-explored in relation to the housing affordability crisis. We argue that the concentrated ownership of residential land affects housing production in Luxembourg through the interplay of landowner and developer wealth accumulation strategies. Drawing on expert interviews, we first show that the country’s growth-centred ecology has produced a negotiated planning regime that does little to manage the pace of residential development. Through an investigation of the development of 71 large-scale residential projects since 2007, we then identify the private land-based wealth accumulation strategies this facilitative planning regime enables. This analysis of land registry data identifies land hoarding, land banking and the strategic use of the planning system. The Luxembourg case – with its extremes of land concentration, low taxes and public disengagement from land – provides a glimpse at the influence of landowner and property developer strategies on housing affordability free of the usual mediating impact of the planning system. |
| Keywords: | land; housing; affordability; political economy |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111497&r= |
| By: | John F. Helliwell; Max B. Norton; Shun Wang; Lara B. Aknin; Haifang Huang |
| Abstract: | A well-being approach requires looking beyond COVID-19 deaths to compare the performance of elimination versus mitigation strategies as measured by other important supports for well-being. What do the data show? Our comparison based on 2020 data shows a virus elimination strategy to be more successful than other options, whether measured in terms of COVID-19 deaths, overall excess deaths, income, unemployment, trust, or mental and physical health. Countries that chose and followed a strategy of reducing community transmission to zero and keeping it there saved lives and better protected income and employment, all without obvious costs to either the social fabric or the mental health of their populations. |
| JEL: | H12 H51 I14 I18 I31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29092&r= |
| By: | Sungwon Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper considers identification and inference for the distribution of treatment effects conditional on a set of observable covariates. Since the conditional distribution of treatment effects is not point identified without strong assumptions on the joint distribution of potential outcomes, we obtain bounds on the conditional distribution of treatment effects by using the Fr\'echet-Hoeffding bounds. We also consider the case where the treatment is endogenous and propose two stochastic dominance assumptions that are consistent with many economic theories to tighten the bounds. We develop a nonparametric framework to estimate the bounds on the conditional distribution of treatment effects and establish the asymptotic theory for uniform inference over the support of treatment effects. Two empirical examples are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the methods, with a focus on heterogeneous treatment effects. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00723&r= |
| By: | Domingo, Sonny N.; Umlas, Anna Jennifer L.; Zuluaga, Katrina Mae C. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses collected data and initial results in developing the rapid climate decision analysis tool applicable to smallholder high value crop farming in Atok, Benguet. The excel-based tool harnesses the knowledge of farmers and agricultural extension workers and aims to aid them in decisionmaking. Information gathered are yields, production costs and prices by crop, season and amount of rainfall. <p>The paper is part of the project titled, "Action ready climate knowledge to improve disaster risk management for smallholder farmers in the Philippines" that explores, among others, the context faced by farmers in making farm decisions, particularly those that are influenced by weather and climate information. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, climate information, weather information, smallholder farming, decision analysis, Rapid Climate Decision Analysis Tool |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-12&r= |
| By: | Cheng, Zhiming (University of New South Wales); Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales); Wang, Haining (Sun Yat-Sen University) |
| Abstract: | We use the 2012-2018 China Family Panel Studies data to examine the relationship between household energy poverty and an individual’s probability of becoming an entrepreneur. Consistent with the theory of underdog entrepreneurship that negative personal circumstances can foster self-reliance, resourcefulness and other skills and personality traits conducive to entrepreneurship, we find that spending a higher share of household income on energy consumption or being energy poor increases the probability of being an entrepreneur. The results are robust to various checks, including alternative measures of energy poverty, non-linear effects of the share of energy spending in household income, past entrepreneurial experience, alternative estimation methods and potential omitted variable bias. We also explore the channels through which energy poverty influences whether one chooses to become an entrepreneur. We find that cognitive functions, mental health and self-confidence negatively mediate, while self-belief, extroversion and openness positively mediate, the relationship between energy poverty and entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | energy poverty, entrepreneurship, China |
| JEL: | I32 L26 Q41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14586&r= |
| By: | Bleynat, Ingrid; Segal, Paul |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new mixed methods approach to measuring and understanding multidimensional inequalities, and applies it to new data for Mexico City. We incorporate quantitative and qualitative dimensions of inequality, integrating the concerns of both economists and sociologists. The method combines standard quantitative income gradients with two new ways of conceptualizing qualitative inequalities that relate to lived experiences, all based on the same underlying income distribution. First, we introduce the method of qualitative income gradients, or what we call inequalities of lived experience. These compare qualitative experiences in fields such as work, or health and education services, across the entire income distribution. Second, we describe lived experiences of inequality, which are experiences of social hierarchy, stigma, or domination, including those associated with categorical inequalities of gender or race. This portrayal of inequality combines the representativeness of quantitative approaches with the depth and nuance of qualitative analyses of lived experience and social relations. |
| Keywords: | Mexico |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111041&r= |
| By: | Gimenez-Nadal, Jose Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto |
| Abstract: | This article explores the gender gap in time allocation in Europe, offering up-to-date statistics and information on several factors that may help to explain these differences. Prior research has identified several factors affecting the time individuals devote to paid work, unpaid work, and child care, and the gender gaps in these activities, but most research refers to single countries, and general patterns are rarely explored. Cross-country evidence on gender gaps in paid work, unpaid work, and child care is offered, and explanations based on education, earnings, and household structure are presented, using data from the EUROSTAT and the Multinational Time Use Surveys. There are large cross-country differences in the gender gaps in paid work, unpaid work, and child care, which remain after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics, although the gender gap in paid work dissipates when the differential gendered relationship between socio-demographic characteristics and paid work is taken into account. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of gender gaps in Europe, helping to focus recent debates on how to tackle inequality in Europe, and clarifying the factors that contribute to gender inequalities in the uses of time. |
| Keywords: | Paid work,unpaid work,gender gap,European countries,earnings,household structure |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:908&r= |
| By: | Douglas A. Irwin; Anson Soderbery |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the political economy of U.S. trade policy around the time of the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, a period when policy was unconstrained by trade agreements. We consider a model of politically-optimal trade policy for a large country that can influence its terms of trade and where workers and firms lobby for protection. The predictions of the model hinge on import demand and export supply elasticities, which we estimate using detailed U.S. import data from 1927-35, as well as industry lobbying data. We find that tariff levels are largely determined by firm lobbies, but about about 5 percentage points of the tariffs are explained by terms of trade considerations. Decomposing the politically-optimal tariff in 1931 reveals an intensification of demand for protection by workers in the Smoot-Hawley tariff. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29115&r= |
| By: | Yassine Boussenna (UAE, ENCG Tanger -Groupe de recherche "Management & Systèmes d'information"-); Ouael El Kharraz |
| Abstract: | throughout the literature, several factors affect positively KM initiatives in universities are discussed. Some of these are the same as those found for private organizations and others are specific to public organizations. Most authors cite the organizational culture and structure. The main objective of this study was to verify the presence of success factors in KM implementation at the Moroccan universities via Abdelmalek Essaadi University subject of this work. through a deductive reasoning approach and a quantitative working method, Using the questionnaire as a tool to collect data from a proportional random and representative sample of 88 teacher-researchers from the different institutions of the university under study. The study found a positive relationship between the requirements for Knowledge management (organizational culture, organizational structure,) and KM application in Moroccan universities with a Pearson correlation rate R = 0.712 For organizational culture and 0.576 for organizational structure. also, the results obtained show insufficiency presence of initiatives for a knowledge management implementation, with an average of 2.02 for organizational structure, and 1.89 concerning organizational culture according to the university's teachers. |
| Abstract: | Dans l'ensemble de la littérature, plusieurs facteurs affectant positivement les initiatives de GC dans les universités sont discutés. Certains d'entre eux sont les mêmes que ceux que l'on trouve pour les organisations privées et d'autres sont spécifiques aux organisations publiques. La plupart des auteurs citent la culture et la structure organisationnelles. L'objectif principal de cette étude était de vérifier la présence de facteurs de succès dans la mise en œuvre de la GC dans les universités marocaines via l'université Abdelmalek Essaadi objet de ce travail. à travers une approche de raisonnement déductif et une méthode de travail quantitative, En utilisant le questionnaire comme outil de collecte de données auprès d'un échantillon aléatoire proportionnel et représentatif de 88 enseignants-chercheurs des différents établissements de l'université étudiée. L'étude a trouvé une relation positive entre les exigences de la gestion des connaissances (culture organisationnelle, structure organisationnelle,) et l'application de la gestion des connaissances dans les universités marocaines avec un taux de corrélation de Pearson R = 0.712 pour la culture organisationnelle et 0.576 pour la structure organisationnelle. Aussi, les résultats obtenus montrent une présence insuffisante d'initiatives pour une mise en œuvre de la gestion des connaissances, avec une moyenne de 2.02 pour la structure organisationnelle, et 1.89 concernant la culture organisationnelle selon les enseignants de l'université. |
| Keywords: | organizational culture,organizational structure,knowledge management |
| Date: | 2021–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03292551&r= |
| By: | Tarna Silue (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | The paper focuses on the relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion in developing countries. One of the main innovations of the analysis is to report on the contribution to developing new digital financial services such as mobile money. To do this, I first realize a simple endogenous growth model in which the role of the financial sector is to provide sources of investment to included population. The model indicates that consumption could be the main channel through financial inclusion, contributing to growth. Then, the empirical estimation realized using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with 57 countries over 2007-2017 evaluates the impacts of traditional and digital inclusion on growth. The results confirm the positive effect of financial inclusion on growth. For formal inclusion, estimators reveal that the financial system deposits contribute to growth in developing countries. Concerning digital inclusion, we note that an active mobile money account has a higher positive impact on growth than standard inclusion. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous growth,Financial inclusion,Mobile money,GMM System |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03281843&r= |
| By: | Sterkens, Philippe; Caers, Ralf; De Couck, Marijke; Geamanu, Michael; Van Driessche, Victor; Baert, Stijn |
| Abstract: | Earlier research has associated spelling errors in resumes with reduced hiring chances. However, the analysis of hiring penalties due to spelling errors has thus far been restricted to white-collar occupations and relatively high numbers of errors per resume. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying the spelling error penalty have remained unclear. To fill these gaps in the peerreviewed literature, we conducted a scenario experiment with 445 genuine recruiters. Results show that, compared to error-free resumes, hiring penalties are being inflicted for both error-laden resumes (18.5 percent points lower interview probability) and resumes with fewer errors (7.3 percent points lower interview probability). Furthermore, we find substantial heterogeneity in penalties inflicted based on various applicant, job and participant characteristics. About half of the spelling error penalty can be explained by the perception that applicants who make spelling errors have lower interpersonal skills (9.0%), conscientiousness (12.1%) and mental abilities (32.2%). |
| Keywords: | spelling errors,resumes,signalling,hiring experiments |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:899&r= |
| By: | Afridi, Farzana (Indian Statistical Institute); Mahajan, Kanika (Ashoka University); Sangwan, Nikita (Indian Statistical Institute) |
| Abstract: | Climate change has increased rainfall uncertainty, leading to greater production risks in agriculture. We examine the gender-differentiated labor impacts of droughts resulting from lower precipitation using unique individual-level panel data for agricultural households in India over half a decade. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in individual responses, we find that women's workdays fall by 11% more than men's when a drought occurs, driven by former's lack of diversification to the non-farm sector. Women are less likely to work outside their village and migrate relative to men in response to droughts, and are consequently unable to cope fully with the adverse agricultural productivity shock. Our findings can be explained by social costs emanating from gender norms that constrain women's access to non-farm work opportunities. The results highlight the gendered impact of climate change, potentially exacerbating extant gender gaps in the labor market. |
| Keywords: | climate, drought, agriculture, labor, gender |
| JEL: | Q54 J16 J43 J60 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14568&r= |
| By: | Eyring, Henry; Ferguson, Patrick J.; Koppers, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | We use a field experiment in professional sports to compare effects of providing absolute, relative, or both absolute and relative measures in performance reports for employees. Although studies have documented that the provision of these types of measures can benefit performance, theory from economic and accounting literature suggests that it may be optimal for firms to direct employees’ attention to some types of measures by omitting others. In line with this theory, we find that relative performance information alone yields the best performance effects in our setting—that is, that a subset of information (relative performance information) dominates the full information set (absolute and relative performance information together) in boosting performance. In cross-sectional and survey-data analyses, we do not find that restricting the number of measures shown per se benefits performance. Rather, we find that restricting the type of measures shown to convey only relative information increases involvement in peer-performance comparison, benefitting performance. Our findings extend research on weighting of and responses to measures in performance reports. |
| Keywords: | Wiley deal |
| JEL: | M40 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111032&r= |
| By: | Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; Groll, Dominik; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Ein Jahr nach Beginn der Pandemie stehen die Zeichen für die kommenden Monate auf Normalisierung der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität. Aktuell liegt die Wirtschaftsleistung im Euroraum nach einem erneuten Rückgang im Schlussquartal 2020 rund 5 Prozent unter ihrem Vorkrisenniveau. Dabei gibt es erhebliche Unterschiede zwischen verschiedenen Wirtschaftsbereichen und Mitgliedsländern. Frühindikatoren zeigen am aktuellen Rand eine gespaltene Konjunktur bei einer zuversichtlich gestimmten Industrie und weiterhin belasteten Dienstleistern. Mobilitätsdaten lassen zudem für das laufende Quartal einen erneuten Rückgang des privaten Verbrauchs und des Bruttoinlandsprodukts erwarten. Vor dem Hintergrund einer fortschreitenden Impfkampagne dürften die pandemiebedingten Einschränkungen der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität im Verlauf des Sommerhalbjahrs jedoch weitgehend zurückgeführt werden. Unter dieser Annahme rechnen wir für die kommenden Quartale damit, dass sich alle noch belasteten Wirtschaftsbereiche überall zügig den vor der Krise erreichten Aktivitätsniveaus annähern. Besonders kräftige Zuwachsraten sind beim Dienstleistungshandel, beim privaten Konsum und bei den Ausrüstungsinvestitionen zu erwarten. Insgesamt dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2021 um 4,8 Prozent zulegen, für 2022 erwarten wir einen Zuwachs um 4,3 Prozent. Damit wird das Vorkrisenniveau wohl gegen Ende des laufenden Jahres überschritten. |
| Keywords: | Euroraum,Europäische Währungsunion,Frühindikatoren,Fiskalpolitik,Produktionslückenschätzung,Konjunktur,Konjunktur Euro Raum,Europäische Union & Euro |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:76&r= |
| By: | Marc Grossouvre (URBS); Didier Rullière (Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], FAYOL-ENSMSE - Institut Henri Fayol - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], LIMOS - Laboratoire d'Informatique, de Modélisation et d'Optimisation des Systèmes - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de St Etienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - INP Clermont Auvergne - Institut national polytechnique Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, FAYOL-ENSMSE - Département Génie mathématique et industriel - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de St Etienne - Institut Henri Fayol) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with three related problems in a geostatistical context. First, some data are available for given areas of the space, rather than for some specic locations, which creates specic problems of multiscale areal data. Second, some uncertainties rely both on the input locations and on measured quantities at these locations, which creates specic uncertainty propagation problems. Third, multidimensional outputs can be observed, with sometimes missing data. These three problems are addressed simultaneously here by considering mixtures of multivariate random elds, and by adapting standard Kriging methodology to this context. While the usual Gaussian setting is lost, we show that conditional mean, variance and covariances can be derived from this specic setting. A numerical illustration on simulated data is given. |
| Keywords: | Mixture Kriging,granular data,ecological inference,disaggregation,change of support,block Kriging,areal data,area-to-point,regional Kriging,multiscale processes |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03276127&r= |
| By: | Stephen Sullivan (University of the Incarnate Word, United States); Diana Garza (University of the Incarnate Word, United States) |
| Abstract: | There have been many unprecedented changes in the Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C-TPAT) program in the 18-years of its existence. C-TPAT is a layer in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection's (CBP) multi-layered cargo enforcement strategy. C-TPAT program is a partnership program focused on cargo security made possible through close cooperation with international supply chain stakeholders. The efficiency of supply chains directly impacts supply chain disruptions, operational waste due to operating inefficiency, and revenue loss. This research will gather data on the benefits of C-TPAT and how this program focuses on supply chain risks ranging from cybersecurity to terrorism financing, supply chain safety, and supply chain efficiency. Supply chain efficiency is paramount in moving cargo from one point to another and achieving sustainable competitive advantage. A partnership with C-TPAT offers greater control over security implementation, reduced transaction costs, reduced inspections, and expedited shipment processing. Such a process can potentially increase business security performance and overall firm performance. |
| Keywords: | C-TPAT, supply chain security, efficiency, performance |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01234&r= |
| By: | Robert Hill (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | According to the Independent Examinations Board (IEB, 2015), students who write the IEB National Senior Certificate school-leaving exam are at a distinct advantage and seem to be better prepared for the pressures and challenges faced during their university years than are those students who wrote the Department of Basic Education (DBE) exams. Although the underlying curriculum is no different, the IEB exam is thought to be more challenging and to encourage more critical thinking and deeper engagement with the material than the DBE exam. Thus, this research paper aims to provide a rigorous investigation of whether those students who write the IEB exam at the end of their matric year achieve higher university grades in their first year of study, as well as a decomposition of this effect into a teaching effect and a testing effect. This is done by exploiting within-school variation of examination boards. Given that studies investigating independent school impacts on university performance have predominantly been conducted internationally (McNabb et al., 2002; Ogg et al., 2009; Smith & Naylor, 2001; Smith & Naylor, 2005), this paper will add to the literature in the South African context. By using the techniques of OLS, quantile regression, binary choice probit models and ordered probit models, this paper attempts to provide a holistic view of the effect that the IEB school-leaving examination has on a student’s academic performance at a tertiary level. The data used in this study is also unique, in that it is made up of an amalgamation of student record data obtained from the University of Cape Town (UCT), as well as governmental survey data. This paper finds that the IEB examination has a strong positive effect of between 1.6 and 6.5 percentage points on first-year GPA at UCT, particularly in the Medicine and Engineering faculties. Furthermore, this effect is present, but decreasing across the entirety of the performance distribution. Students with an IEB matric are significantly more likely to achieve a 2nd class pass or higher at the end of their first year of study than are comparable students from Former African schools. When decomposing the IEB effect into a teaching effect and a testing effect, it was found that the majority of the impact of the IEB comes simply from the different exam, and that teaching effects are minimal. A further finding of interest is that the IEB effect seems to be independent of resource availability, and that simply the exposure to the alternative testing method is sufficient for students to see significant improvements in their university performance. These results are robust to changes in functional form, and provide a strong and clear picture that perhaps South Africa should be adopting more of the IEB policies towards teaching and learning on a national scale. |
| Keywords: | Independent Examinations Board, performance, decomposition |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I25 I26 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:201904&r= |
| By: | Odusola, Ayodele; Mekuria, Fisseha; Mzyece, Mjumo; Mfupe, Luzango |
| Abstract: | Innovation on sustainable ICT technologies to realize affordable broadband connectivity for rural and underserved communities is a crucial component of the effort to achieve the aim of “leaving no one behind by 2030” as championed by the United Nations. Digital connectivity and the creation of a digital entrepreneurial rural ecosystem (DERE) are two interconnected interventions necessary to achieve digital inclusion with rural communities as the main target. This paper defines the ecosystem components for the DERE, which include affordable broadband, sustainable business models and co-creation of relevant ICT services involving beneficiary rural communities. This framework presents a proof of concept on rural SMEs-driven digital inclusion being implemented at four sites in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:undpae:313056&r= |
| By: | Martinez-Jimenez, Mario (Lancaster University); Hollingsworth, Bruce (Lancaster University); Zucchelli, Eugenio (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effects of retirement on both physical and mental ill-health and whether these change in the presence of economic shocks. We employ inverse probability weighting regression adjustment to examine the mechanisms influencing the relationship between retirement and health and a difference-in-differences approach combined with matching to investigate whether the health effects of retirement are affected by the Great Recession. We estimate these models on data drawn from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and find that retirement leads to a deterioration in both mental and physical health, however there seems to be considerable effect heterogeneity by gender and occupational status. Our findings also suggest that retiring shortly after the Great Recession appears to improve mental and physical health, although only among individuals working in the most affected regions. Overall, our results indicate that the health effects of retirement might be influenced by the presence of economic shocks. |
| Keywords: | retirement, health, Great Recession, ELSA |
| JEL: | J14 J26 I10 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14574&r= |
| By: | Eddy Bajolle (CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Cécile Godé (CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | La littérature académique et professionnelle présente la blockchain comme une technologie émergente ayant le potentiel de bouleverser les pratiques dans la supply chain. En effet, son registre de transaction distribué et sécurisé apporte une plus grande transparence sur les activités réalisées tout au long de la chaîne logistique. Cette visibilité accrue peut changer la manière d'aborder les relations inter-organisationnelles dans la supply chain. Dans ce chapitre, la théorie de l'agence est utilisée dans l'objectif de mieux comprendre comment la technologie blockchain influence la relation d'agence entre le donneur d'ordre et ses fournisseurs dans la supply chain. Plus spécifiquement, un ensemble de propositions théoriques est intégré au sein d'un modèle conceptuel permettant de mieux comprendre l'influence de la technologie blockchain (1) sur les dispositifs de surveillance instaurés par le donneur d'ordre et affectés au contrôle du comportement de ses fournisseurs indirects ; (2) sur l'asymétrie d'information du donneur d'ordre vis-à-vis de ses fournisseurs indirects ; (3) sur l'opportunisme des fournisseurs indirects vis-à-vis de leur donneur d'ordre et ; (4) sur les coûts d'agence du donneur d'ordre affectés au contrôle de ses fournisseurs indirects. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain,relations inter-organisationnelles,supply chain,théorie de l’agence |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03226731&r= |
| By: | Bonacini, Luca; Brunetti, Irene; Gallo, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | This study aims to identify the main determinants of student performance in reading and maths across eight European Union countries (Austria, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Based on student-level data from the OECD’s PISA 2018 survey and by means of the application of efficient algorithms, we highlight that the number of books at home and a variable combining the type and location of their school represent the most important predictors of student performance in all of the analysed countries, while other school characteristics are rarely relevant. Econometric results show that students attending vocational schools perform significantly worse than those in general schools, except in Portugal. Considering only general school students, the differences between big and small cities are not statistically significant, while among students in vocational schools, those in a small city tend to perform better than those in a big city. Through the Gelbach decomposition method, which allows measuring the relative importance of observable characteristics in explaining a gap, we show that the differences in test scores between big and small cities depend on school characteristics, while the differences between general and vocational schools are mainly explained by family social status. |
| Keywords: | Gelbach decomposition,Education inequalities,Machine learning,PISA,Schooling tracking,Student performance |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:905&r= |
| By: | François Gardes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Using a generalization of Becker's time allocation model in order to estimate the shadow price of time, we explore the relationship between the inter-temporal substitution rate and the opportunity cost of time, allowing the endogenization of the time preference from the estimation of the value of time. |
| Keywords: | Time Allocation,Inter-temporal substitution rate,psychological rate of interest,Opportunity cost of time |
| Date: | 2021–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03289200&r= |
| By: | Knuth, Matthias |
| Abstract: | Das Zusammentreffen von Post-Corona-Krise, Digitalisierung, Energiewende, Mobilitätswende und Agrarwende erfordert eine arbeitsmarktpolitische Flankierung, die in den überkommenen Strukturen und Kategorien der Arbeitsmarktpolitik nicht darstellbar ist. Es geht weniger um neue Instrumente als vielmehr um grundlegend andere Handlungslogiken und Steuerungsformen. Da eine so weitreichende Reform der Arbeitsmarktpolitik nicht rasch genug umgesetzt werden könnte, wird für eine Übergangszeit von zehn Jahren ein Arbeitsmarktpolitisches Sonderprogramm "Transformation der Arbeitswelt" im Umfang von jährlich vier Milliarden Euro vorgeschlagen. |
| Keywords: | Arbeitsmarktpolitik,Digitalisierung,Transformation,Weiterbildung,Programm |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:219&r= |
| By: | Gern, Klaus-Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Im Verlauf der vergangenen zwölf Monate sind die Rohstoffpreise auf breiter Front stark gestiegen (Ab-bildung 1). Dies hat die These genährt, darin läge der Beginn eines neuen 'Superzyklus', also eines lang-anhaltenden (viele Jahre umfassenden) und breit ab-gestützten (viele Rohstoffe umfassenden) Anstiegs der Rohstoffpreise mit Raten, die deutlich über dem langfristigen Trend liegen (Goldman Sachs 2020). Bislang ist eine solche Diagnose aber verfrüht. Der seit dem vergangenen Frühjahr verzeichnete Roh-stoffpreisanstieg ist zu einem Großteil ein Reflex der raschen Erholung der Weltkonjunktur vor allem in der Industrie, deren Nachfrage auf eine auch pandemie-bedingt vorübergehend verringerte Produktion traf. Vorsicht bei der Einschätzung ist auch deshalb geboten, weil sich die Marktsituation und auch das Preisniveau im historischen Vergleich bei den einzelnen Rohstoffen sehr unterschiedlich darstellen. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:202110&r= |
| By: | Harold D Chiang; Yukitoshi Matsushita; Taisuke Otsu |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a general methodology to conduct statistical inference for observations indexed by multiple sets of entities. We propose a novel multiway empirical likelihood statistic that converges to a chi-square distribution under the non-degenerate case, where corresponding Hoeffding type decomposition is dominated by linear terms. Our methodology is related to the notion of jackknife empirical likelihood but the leave-out pseudo values are constructed by leaving columns or rows. We further develop a modified version of our multiway empirical likelihood statistic, which converges to a chi-square distribution regardless of the degeneracy, and discover its desirable higher-order property compared to the t-ratio by the conventional Eicker-White type variance estimator. The proposed methodology is illustrated by several important statistical problems, such as bipartite network, two-stage sampling, generalized estimating equations, and three-way observations. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04852&r= |
| By: | Josué Nelson Vera Rodríguez |
| Keywords: | GamingTICNonogamoVideojuegos |
| Date: | 2020–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000563:019385&r= |
| By: | Dimitrios Exadaktylos; Mahdi Ghodsi; Armando Rungi |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between patenting activity, productivity, and market competition at the firm level. We focus on the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry as a particular case of an innovative sector whose contribution to modern economies is pivotal. For our purpose, we exploit financial accounts and patenting activity in 2009-2017 by 179,660 companies operating in 39 countries. Our identification strategy relies on the most recent approaches for a difference-in-difference setup in the presence of multiple periods and with variation in treatment time. We find that companies being granted patents increase on average market shares by 11%, firm size by 12%, and capital intensity by 10%. Notably, we do not register a significant impact of patenting on firms' productivity after challenging results for reverse causality and robustness checks. Findings are robust after we consider ownership structures separating patents owned by parent companies and their subsidiaries. We complement our investigation with an analysis of market allocation dynamics. Eventually, we argue that policymakers should reconsider the trade-off between IPR protection and market competition, especially when the benefits to firms' competitiveness are not immediately evident. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00814&r= |
| By: | Mathieu Alemany Oliver (TBS - Toulouse Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the concept of business-related conspiracy theories (BrCTs). Drawing on Aristotelian virtue ethics and undertaking a narratological and ethical analysis of 28 BrCTs found online, I emphasize that BrCTs are narratives with structures rooted in other latent macro- and meta-narratives, including centuries-old myths. In particular, I reconstruct the fictional world (diegesis) of BrCTs – one in which CSR and social contracts have failed – before identifying eight different types of actors as which people can morally situate themselves in their relationships with business. Finally, I elaborate on the actors' performances and their use of external and legitimate forces to end the story. The paper concludes with a discussion of potential future research to help combat BrCTs, as well as a call for the critical study of political CSR. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03289831&r= |
| By: | Francisco M. Fern\'{a}ndez |
| Abstract: | We show that the Adomian decomposition method proposed by Ke et al [ANZIAM J. \textbf{59} (2018) 349] is just the Taylor series approach in disguise. The latter approach is simpler, more straightforward and yields a recurrence relation free from integrals. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05747&r= |
| By: | Ademmer, Martin; Beckmann, Joscha; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; Groll, Dominik; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia |
| Abstract: | Die Konjunktur in Deutschland nimmt wieder Fahrt auf. Nachdem das Wiederaufflammen der Corona-Pandemie die wirtschaftliche Erholung im Winterhalbjahr ins Stocken gebracht hatte, wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion im weiteren Verlauf des Jahres in hohem Tempo ausgeweitet werden und ihr Vorkrisenniveau wieder überschreiten. Mit dem Wegfall der pandemiebedingten Restriktionen wird die Aktivität vor allem in jenen Bereichen rasch wieder zunehmen, die zuvor besonders belastet wurden. So dürften vor allem der Handel und kontaktintensive Dienstleistungen von dem Rückprall bei den Konsumausgaben der privaten Haushalte profitieren. Vorerst verzögern wird sich die Erholung jedoch beim Verarbeitenden Gewerbe. Die weltweit kräftige Erholung hat vielschichtige Lieferengpässe mit sich gebracht, die die Produktion vieler Unternehmen spürbar behindern. Trotz der sehr guten Auftragslage wird die Produktion im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe deshalb wohl erst in der zweiten Jahreshälfte wieder nach und nach auf ihren Erholungskurs einschwenken, sofern die Lieferengpässe dann allmählich nachlassen. Mit den Lieferengpässen hat auch der Preisdruck zugenommen, zumal die konjunkturelle Dynamik weltweit hoch ist. So waren die Preise für Rohstoffe, Vorleistungsgüter und Transportleistungen zuletzt auf breiter Front aufwärtsgerichtet. Alles in allem dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr um 3,9 Prozent zulegen und im Jahr 2022 um 4,8 Prozent. Die Verbraucherpreise werden in diesem Jahr, zumal auch noch die Mehrwertsteuererhöhung und das Klimapaket preistreibend wirken, deutlich beschleunigt um voraussichtlich 2,6 Prozent steigen. Im kommenden Jahr wird die Inflation wohl bei rund 2 Prozent liegen. |
| Keywords: | Corona-Krise,COVID19,Konjunktur Deutschland,Fiskalpolitik & Haushalt,Arbeitsmarkt |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:80&r= |
| By: | Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza); Sevilla, Almudena (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between temporal flexibility at work (i.e., the ability to vary or change the time of beginning or ending work) and the motherhood wage gap of working parents, in the US. To that end, we first characterize temporal flexibility at work using the 2017-2018 Leave and Job Flexibilities (LJF) Module of the American Time Use Survey, which contains self-reported information on temporal flexibility at work. We find cross-occupation differences in the ability to vary or change work-times, with more than 70% of full-time workers having flexibility, in occupations such as computer and mathematical science, management, architecture, and engineering. Less than 40% of full-time workers in construction and extraction, education, training and library, or production have temporal flexibility at work. We examine the temporal flexibility of the gender gap among full-time working parents, using the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003-2019. Our analysis reveals that temporal flexibility has a U-shaped relationship with the wage rates of both fathers and mothers, and that temporal flexibility has a concave relationship with the motherhood wage gap, with a maximum being reached at the level of 55% of temporal flexibility. Our analysis of the structure of work hours reveals that temporal flexibility is reflected in how work hours are structured throughout the working day, and also serves as evidence that our measure of temporal flexibility captures the technologies of production, rather than the characteristics or motivations of a given company policy. This paper posits temporal flexibility as a factor affecting the motherhood wage gap. |
| Keywords: | labour supply, gender wage gap, work interruptions, ATUS |
| JEL: | D63 J16 J22 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14578&r= |
| By: | Lyu, Chenyan (Copenhagen School of Energy Infrastructure, Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | China accounts for the largest share of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The scale and growth of industrial activities and energy consumption in China explain the high level of emissions. Achieving “carbon neutrality” through administrative means can be effective but also costly and inefficient. The emission trading scheme is a way to put a price on carbon. The absence of such a mechanism could let low efficiency continue, delay the adoption of clean energy practices, risk a shortage of energy, and even allow corruption in regulation of emissions. In 2013, the government introduced pilot emission trading schemes; and a national ETS, which has started trading since June 2021, is becoming the world’s largest carbon market. This paper focuses on the fragmentation of and integration levels within China’s regional Emission Trading Schemes (ETSs) and the potential models the regional schemes — in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hubei, and Guangdong — offer for national effectiveness. The empirical results from this study suggest the general low level of co-integration in China’s ETS pilots within the sample period may be due to the different economic development levels, energy structures, and degrees of government supervision in each pilot as well as different choices of sector coverage and market threshold in regional ETSs. As the national ETS is at a key stage of construction, greater attention should be paid to exploring reasons for differences among the regional pilot carbon markets, to improve market mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Carbon markets; China’s regional emissions trading; Emission allowances; Market architecture; Cointegration |
| JEL: | C32 E44 Q43 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2021_013&r= |
| By: | Dorsaf Cherif; Emmanuel Lépinette (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a general framework is developed for continuoustime financial market models defined from simple strategies through conditional topologies that avoid stochastic calculus and do not necessitate semimartingale models. We then compare the usual no-arbitrage conditions of the literature, e.g. the usual no-arbitrage conditions NFL, NFLVR and NUPBR and the recent AIP condition. With appropriate pseudo-distance topologies, we show that they hold in continuous time if and only if they hold in discrete time. Moreover, the super-hedging prices in continuous time coincide with the discrete-time super-hedging prices, even without any no-arbitrage condition. |
| Keywords: | No-arbitrage condition,AIP,NFL,NA,NFLVR,NUPBR,Discrete-time financial model,Continuous-time financial market model,Super hedging prices,Pseudo-distance |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03284660&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Eaton; Marcela Eslava; David Jinkins; C. J. Krizan; James R. Tybout |
| Abstract: | Exporting abroad is much harder than selling at home, and overcoming hurdles to exporting takes time. Our goal is to identify specific barriers to exporting and to measure their importance. We develop a model of firm-level export dynamics that features costly customer search, network effects in finding buyers, and learning about product appeal. Fitting the model to customs records of U.S. imports of manufactures from Colombia we replicate patterns of exporter maturation. A potentially valuable intangible asset of a firm is its customer base and knowledge of a market. Our model delivers some striking estimates of what such assets are worth. Averaging across active exporters, the loss from total market amnesia (losing its current U.S. customer base along with its accumulated knowledge of product appeal) is US$ 3.4 million, about 34 percent of the value of exporting overall. About half is the loss of future sales to existing customers while the rest is the cost of relearning its appeal in the market and reestablishing visibility as an exporter. As finding buyers takes time, the 5-year response of total export sales to an exchange rate shock exceeds the 1-year response by about 40 percent, with the 1-year response reflecting mostly sales per exporter-importer match and the 5-year response, reflecting the number of matches almost as much as sales per match. |
| JEL: | F12 F14 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29100&r= |
| By: | Spiridon Penev; Pavel V. Shevchenko; Wei Wu |
| Abstract: | We quantify model risk of a financial portfolio whereby a multi-period mean-standard-deviation criterion is used as a selection criterion. In this work, model risk is defined as the loss due to uncertainty of the underlying distribution of the returns of the assets in the portfolio. The uncertainty is measured by the Kullback-Leibler divergence, i.e., the relative entropy. In the worst case scenario, the optimal robust strategy can be obtained in a semi-analytical form as a solution of a system of nonlinear equations. Several numerical results are presented which allow us to compare the performance of this robust strategy with the optimal non-robust strategy. For illustration, we also quantify the model risk associated with an empirical dataset. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02633&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Gi-Eu Lee (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Sara Farhangdoost (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In support of economic development practitioners’ efforts to devise strategies that can align with both industrial clustering and industrial diversification, this report provides a wide range of relevant measures and metrics. In addition to standard regional analysis tools like coefficients of specialization, location quotients, and growth rates, we introduce two fundamentally new measures for understanding the nature of regional clusters. These measures focus on the industries that anchor the clusters and characterize their strength and regional dominance. The former measures the share of the anchor industry’s direct and indirect requirements that could be satisfied by regional industries, and the latter measures the share of the regional economy that is potentially oriented to the cluster anchor. We then apply an algorithm that identifies anchors and industries that might be further developed to strengthen the region’s industrial clusters. The design of the analysis commonly leads to the identification of different clusters, and thereby points to opportunities to strengthen within and diversify across clusters. Results of these analyses for all 120 micro- and metropolitan regions wholly within the Appalachian region are reported in the supplements to this methodological overview. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development, Industrial Strategy, Industry Clustering, Industrial Diversification |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R15 |
| Date: | 2021–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2021rp01&r= |
| By: | Katharina Erhardt; Simon Haenni |
| Abstract: | Can culture explain persistent differences in economic activity among individuals and across regions? A novel measure of cultural origin enables us to contrast the entrepreneurial activity of individuals located in the same municipality but whose ancestors lived just on opposite sides of the Swiss language border in the 18th century. Individuals with ancestry from the German-speaking side create 20% more firms than those with ancestry from the French-speaking side. These differences persist over generations and independent of the predominant culture at the current location. Yet, founders’ ancestry does not affect exit or growth of newly-founded firms. A model of entrepreneurial choice and complementary survey evidence suggest that the empirical patterns are mainly explained by differences in preferences, rather than skill. The results have sizable economic implications, accounting for 120,000 additional jobs over a period of 15 years. |
| Keywords: | culture, entrepreneurship, natural experiment, spatial RDD |
| JEL: | D22 L26 O12 Z10 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9198&r= |
| By: | Xia Han; Bin Wang; Ruodu Wang; Qinyu Wu |
| Abstract: | Expected Shortfall (ES, also known as CVaR) is the most important coherent risk measure in finance, insurance, risk management, and engineering. Recently, Wang and Zitikis (2021) put forward four economic axioms for portfolio risk assessment and provide the first economic axiomatic foundation for the family of ES. In particular, the axiom of no reward for concen- tration (NRC) is arguably quite strong, which imposes an additive form of the risk measure on portfolios with a certain dependence structure. We relax the axiom of NRC by introducing the notion of concentration aversion, which does not impose any specific form of the risk measure. It turns out that risk measures with concentration aversion are functions of ES and the expec- tation. Together with the other three standard axioms of monotonicity, translation invariance and lower semicontinuity, concentration aversion uniquely characterizes the family of ES. This result enhances the axiomatic theory for ES as no particular additive form needs to be assumed ex-ante. Furthermore, our results provide an axiomatic foundation for the problem of mean-ES portfolio selection and lead to new explicit formulas for convex and consistent risk measures. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05066&r= |
| By: | Thierry Kamionka (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | We propose a structural model of participation to sporty activities and labour supply. We jointly model employment, wage and sporting activity using a dynamic model. We estimate for the period going from 1994 to 1999 a dynamic multivariate model with random effects using the German Socioeconomic panel (GSOEP). The error terms of the equations of the model can be correlated. Each of these error terms can be auto correlated allowing shocks on one of the components of the model to have an impact on all the error terms of the model the next periods. Individual effects, one for each equation, can be correlated. The model is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood estimator. The initial conditions problem is taken into account. |
| Keywords: | Sporting activity,Employment,Wage,Heterogeneity,Simulation based estimation,Panel data. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03294084&r= |
| By: | Steven J. Brams; Mehmet S. Ismail |
| Abstract: | Unlike tic-tac-toe or checkers, in which optimal play leads to a draw, it is not known whether optimal play in chess ends in a win for White, a win for Black, or a draw. But after White moves first in chess, if Black has a double move followed by a double move of White and then alternating play, play is more balanced because White does not always tie or lead in moves. Symbolically, Balanced Alternation gives the following move sequence: After White's (W) initial move, first Black (B) and then White each have two moves in a row (BBWW), followed by the alternating sequence, beginning with W, which altogether can be written as WB/BW/WB/WB/WB... (the slashes separate alternating pairs of moves). Except for reversal of the 3rd and 4th moves from WB to BW, this is the standard chess sequence. Because Balanced Alternation lies between the standard sequence, which favors White, and a comparable sequence that favors Black, it is highly likely to produce a draw with optimal play, rendering chess fairer. This conclusion is supported by a computer analysis of chess openings and how they would play out under Balanced Alternation. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02547&r= |
| By: | Macaire Camille,; Naef Alain. |
| Abstract: | In June 2018, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) decided to include green financial bonds into the pool of assets eligible as collateral for its Medium Term Lending Facility. The PBoC also gave green financial bonds a “first-among-equals” status. We measure the impact of the policy on the yield spread between green and non-green bonds. We show that pre-reform trends are minor, meaning that both green and non-green bonds yields evolved similarily at the time of the reform. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we show that the policy increased the spread by 46 basis points. Our approach differs from the literature in that we match bonds under review with non-green bonds with similar characteristics and issued by the same firm, which improves the relevance of firm fixed-effects. We also specifically investigate the impact on green bonds. The granularity of the data (daily) also allows us to conduct a dynamic analysis by dividing the sample into weekly, monthly and quarterly observations. Our results also show that the impact of the reform starts to materialize after three weeks, has a maximum effect after three months, and has a persistent effect over six months. |
| Keywords: | People’s Bank of China, Central Bank Collateral Framework, Green Bonds, Bond Yields, Greenium. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 Q51 Q54 G12 G18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:812&r= |
| By: | Rimmer, Matthew (Queensland University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Executive Summary This submission provides a critical analysis of the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – focusing in particular upon intellectual property and innovation policy. Recommendation 1 RCEP has a broad membership – even with the departure of India from the negotiations. Nonetheless, there remain outstanding tensions between participating nations – most notably, Australia and China. The re-emergence of United States into trade diplomacy will also complicate the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 2 The closed, secretive negotiations behind RCEP highlight the need for a reform of the treaty-making process in Australia, as well as the need for a greater supervisory role of the Australian Parliament. Recommendation 3 In terms of intellectual property principles and objectives, RCEP promotes foreign investment and trade, and intellectual property protection and enforcement. The agreement needs a stronger emphasis on public policy objectives – such as access to knowledge; the protection of public health; technology transfer; and sustainable development. Recommendation 4 RCEP establishes TRIPS-norms in respect of economic rights under copyright law. Recommendation 5 The agreement does not though enhance copyright flexibilities and defences – particularly in terms of boosting access to knowledge, education, innovation, and sustainable development. Recommendation 6 RCEP provides for a wide range of remedies for intellectual property enforcement – which include civil remedies, criminal offences and procedures, border measures, technological protection measures, and electronic rights management information. Such measures could be characterised as TRIPS+ obligations. Recommendation 7 The electronic commerce chapter of RCEP is outmoded and anachronistic. Its laissez-faire model for dealing with digital trade and electronic commerce is at odds with domestic pressures in Australia and elsewhere for stronger regulation of digital platforms. Recommendation 8 RCEP provides for protection in respect of trade mark law, unfair competition, designs protection, Internet Domain names, and country names. Recommendation 9 As well as providing safeguards against trade and investment action by tobacco companies and tobacco-friendly states, RCEP should do more to address the tobacco epidemic in the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 10 RCEP has a limited array text on geographical indications, taking a rather neutral position in the larger geopolitical debate on the topic between the European Union and the United States. Recommendation 11 RCEP has provisions on plant breeders’ rights and agricultural intellectual property. There is a debate over the impact of such measures upon farmers’ rights in the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 12 RCEP does not adequately respond to the issues in respect of patent law and access to essential medicines during the COVID-19 crisis. Likewise, RCEP is not well prepared for future epidemics, pandemics, and public health emergencies. Recommendation 13 RCEP provides limited protection of confidential information and trade secrets – even though there has been much litigation in this field in the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 14 RCEP is defective because it fails to consider the inter-relationship between trade, labor rights, and human rights. Recommendation 15 RCEP fails to provide substantive protection of the environment, biodiversity, or climate in the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 16 RCEP does little to reform intellectual property in line with the sustainable development goals. Recommendation 17 RCEP does not adequately consider Indigenous rights – including those in the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 18 RCEP does not contain an investor-state dispute settlement mechanism. However, the Investment Chapter does have a number of items, which are problematic. |
| Date: | 2021–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3mvd9&r= |
| By: | Fiorella De Fiore; Marco Jacopo Lombardi; Johannes Schuffels |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of the Fed's monetary policy announcements on households' expectations by comparing responses to the Survey of Consumer Expectations before and after Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, over the period 2013-2019. We find that Fed decisions affect expectations of interest rates on savings accounts, particularly for respondents with high financial and numerical literacy. The impact of monetary policy announcements on inflation expectations is muted, even in response to some of the most relevant meetings of the FOMC that took place during that period. Expectations of personal financial conditions are barely affected. Our results stand in contrast to experimental studies that find strong effects of monetary policy and other macroeconomic news on expectations of households receiving a specific treatment, suggesting that the news naturally reaching the general population may provide weaker signals. |
| Keywords: | households, monetary policy, central bank communication, inflation expectations, survey data |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:956&r= |
| By: | Divakaruni, Anantha; Zimmerman, Peter |
| Abstract: | In April 2020, the US government sent economic impact payments (EIPs) directly to households, as part of its measures to address the COVID-19 pandemic. We characterize these stimulus checks as a wealth shock for households and examine their effect on retail trading in Bitcoin. We find a significant increase in Bitcoin buy trades for the modal EIP amount of $1,200. The rise in Bitcoin trading is highest among individuals without families and at exchanges catering to nonprofessional investors. We estimate that the EIP program has a significant but modest effect on the US dollar–Bitcoin trading pair, increasing trade volume by about 3.8 percent. Trades associated with the EIPs result in a slight rise in the price of Bitcoin of 7 basis points. Nonetheless, the increase in trading is small compared to the size of the stimulus check program, representing only 0.02 percent of all EIP dollars. We repeat our analysis for other countries with similar stimulus programs and find an increase in Bitcoin buy trades in these currencies. Our findings highlight how wealth shocks affect retail trading. |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:khw8a&r= |
| By: | Abdoulaye Sy (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Catherine Araujo-Bonjean (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Marie-Eliette Dury (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Nourddine Azzaoui (LMBP - Laboratoire de Mathématiques Blaise Pascal - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Arnaud Guillin (LMBP - Laboratoire de Mathématiques Blaise Pascal - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | A critical stage in drought hazard assessment is the definition of a drought event, and the measure of its intensity. Actually, the classical approach imposes to all climatic region the same set of thresholds for drought severity classification, hence resulting in a loss of information on rare events in the distribution tails, which are precisely the most important to catch in risk analysis. In order to better assess extreme events, we resort to an extreme value mixture model with a normal distribution for the bulk and a Generalized Pareto distribution for the upper and lower tails, to estimate the intensity of extreme droughts and their occurrence probability. Compare to the standard approach to drought hazard, which relies on a standardized precipitation index and a classification of drought intensity established from the cumulative standard normal distribution function, our approach allows the drought threshold and the occurrence probability of drought to depend on the specific characteristics of each precipitation distribution. An application to the West Africa region shows that the accuracy of our mixture model is higher than that of the standard model. The mixture performs better at modelling the lowest percentiles and specifically the return level of the centennial drought, which is generally overestimated in the standard approach. |
| Keywords: | Mixture model,Generalized pareto distribution,Drought,Extreme value theory |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03297023&r= |
| By: | Jens Klose (THM Business School Giessen) |
| Abstract: | This article develops the first granular database on daily real-time inflation rates and output. Four different European forecast sources and three computation methods are applied to calculate those daily data. These are used in two types of monetary policy rules, for three different interest rates as the dependent variable. The results indicate that the main source of differences in the forecast horizons and response coeffcients is not the data sources or the computation method but, rather, the monetary policy rule applied and the interest rate used. That is, the results differ if unconventional monetary policies are considered. Moreover, the results tend to be time-varying; that is, sudden shifts in the optimal forecast horizon can be identified, leading to substantially altered policy rules. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy rules, ECB, medium-term orientation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202129&r= |
| By: | Assenmacher, Katrin; Berentsen, Aleksander; Brand, Claus; Lamersdorf, Nora |
| Abstract: | We study the macroeconomic effects of central bank digital currency (CBDC) in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Timing and information frictions create a need for inside (bank deposits) and outside money (CBDC) to finance production. To steer the quantity of CBDC, the central bank can set the lending and deposit rates for CBDC as well as collateral and quantity requirements. Less restrictive provision of CBDC reduces bank deposits. A positive interest spread on CBDC or stricter collateral or quantity constraints reduce welfare but can contain bank disintermediation, especially if the elasticity of substitution between bank deposits and CBDC is small. JEL Classification: E58, E41, E42, E51, E52 |
| Keywords: | central bank digital currency, monetary policy, search and matching |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212578&r= |
| By: | Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Prashant Parab (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the influence of qualitative and quantitative communications of the Reserve Bank of India on inflation expectations of professional forecasters, and draw out implications for the impact of policy variables on expectations. Estimating Carroll-type epidemiological models of expectation formation, we find large speed of adjustment of professional forecasters' expectations. Analysis of the determinants of inflation forecasts, inflation surprises and forecaster disagreement reveals significant influence of quantitative RBI communications in the form of inflation projections. This effect is prominent for shorter horizon forecasts and after the adoption of flexible inflation targeting regime. Macroeconomic fundamentals like lagged inflation and Repo rate too play a significant role in influencing inflation forecasts. Choice of words in the RBI monetary policy statements has more impact since October 2016, after monetary policy committee became the decision-making body. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations, Survey of professional forecasters, Central bank |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-014&r= |
| By: | Jean-Marc Vasnier (CESI - Centre d'Enseignement Supérieur Industriel); Mourad Messaadia (LINEACT - Laboratoire d’Innovation Numérique pour les Entreprises et les Apprentissages au service de la Compétitivité des Territoires - CESI - Centre d'Enseignement Supérieur Industriel); Nicolas Maranzana (LCPI - Laboratoire Conception de Produits et Innovation - Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies - HESAM - HESAM Université); Ameziane Aoussat (LCPI - Laboratoire Conception de Produits et Innovation - Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies - HESAM - HESAM Université) |
| Abstract: | Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the spine of the European economy and play a key role in adding value in all sectors of the economy. However, due to a lack of methodology and time, SME entrepreneurs struggle to formalize their strategies and too often remain ill-prepared to face today's potential crises. This paper aims to propose a Risk Management (RM) tool to identify and assess the impact of risks on specific business strategic dimensions. The hypotheses and robustness of the model are tested using Monte Carlo simulation. The analysis shows that a reduced strategic risk matrix (size [Formula: see text]) could provide the same quality of information as a full strategic risk matrix (size [Formula: see text]) in about 80% of the cases, regardless of the weight of each criterion and the values of each risk factor. The results extend the limited use of RM tool in the field of SME Risk Management. |
| Keywords: | SMEs,Risk matrix,Monte Carlo simulation,Strategic risk management,Decision analysis |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03295416&r= |
| By: | Anna Gerke (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School); Geoff Dickson (La Trobe University [Melbourne]); Veit Wohlgemuth (HTW - University of Applied Sciences [Berlin]) |
| Abstract: | Research question: This paper addresses the following research questions: 1) To what extent do the procedural dimensions of the dynamic capabilities view explain non-profit sport organisations' adaptation to a changing environment? 2) To what extent do non-profit sport organisations develop routinised versus ad hoc dynamic capabilities? Research methods: Guided by an interpretivist approach we conducted semi-structured interviews with senior managers of 20 Australian golf clubs. We coded data guided by the procedural dimensions of the dynamic capabilities view but with inductively emerging sub themes. Results and findings: Our study demonstrates the usefulness of the dynamic capabilities view for investigating strategic processes within non-profit sport organisations. The three procedural dimensions-sensing, seizing, and transforming-captured the different practices undertaken within the golf clubs. Our findings suggest maturity of dynamic capability processes and success with using both routinised and ad hoc processes. Implications: Dynamic capabilities are useful for understanding the ability of non-profit sport organisations to adapt. Furthermore, routinisation depends on the maturity of an organisation's internal management processes and the means available for the latter. |
| Keywords: | dynamic capabilities,golf clubs,non-profit organisation,change management,strategic management |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03295365&r= |
| By: | Edward P. Herbst; Fabian Winkler |
| Abstract: | We estimate a Bayesian three-dimensional dynamic factor model on the individual forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The factors extract the most important dimensions along which disagreement comoves across variables. We interpret our results through a general semi-structural dispersed information model. The two most important factors in the data describe disagreement about aggregate supply and demand, respectively. Up until the Great Moderation, supply disagreement was dominant, while in recent decades and particularly during the Great Recession, demand disagreement was most important. By contrast, disagreement about monetary policy shocks seems to play a minor role in the data. Our findings can serve to discipline structural models of heterogeneous expectations. |
| Keywords: | Disagreement; Forecast Dispersion; Heterogeneous Expectations; Noisy Information; Dynamic Factor Model |
| JEL: | C33 C38 E37 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-46&r= |
| By: | Jose Maria Barrero; Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis |
| Abstract: | About one-fifth of paid workdays will be supplied from home in the post-pandemic economy, and more than one-fourth on an earnings-weighted basis. In view of this projection, we consider some implications of home internet access quality, exploiting data from the new Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. Moving to high-quality, fully reliable home internet service for all Americans (“universal access”) would raise earnings-weighted labor productivity by an estimated 1.1% in the coming years. The implied output gains are $160 billion per year, or $4 trillion when capitalized at a 4% rate. Estimated flow output payoffs to universal access are nearly three times as large in economic disasters like the COVID-19 pandemic. Our survey data also say that subjective well-being was higher during the pandemic for people with better home internet service conditional on age, employment status, earnings, working arrangements, and other controls. In short, universal access would raise productivity, and it would promote greater economic and social resilience during future disasters that inhibit travel and in-person interactions. |
| JEL: | D24 D84 E24 E27 E71 H54 J22 J24 J31 J81 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29102&r= |
| By: | S, Suresh Kumar; Samad, Sulfiya |
| Abstract: | Kerala economy is mainly supported by remittances from abroad and traditional industries. Among the traditional industries fisheries sector play a multifaceted role as an income provider both from domestic and export market, nutritious supporter to densely populated state, provider of high employment and as protectors of marine environment. Because of its importance, it becomes one’s social responsibility to support the growth of industry by providing timely instructions and adopting prompt policy changes applicable to the related industrial community. This paper aims to highlight the present scenario of the fish processing industry of Kerala with respect to capacity utilization and growth trends. Both primary and secondary data were used to frame this paper. Multiple regression, Chow break point test etc. are applied on time series data to arrive at a conclusion |
| Keywords: | Capacity Utilization, Productivity, Marine Processed Goods, Kerala |
| JEL: | D24 M11 O4 |
| Date: | 2020–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109032&r= |
| By: | Bergeaud, Antonin (Bank of France); Mazet-Sonilhac, Clément (Sciences Po, Paris); Malgouyres, Clément (Paris School of Economics); Signorelli, Sara (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Domestic outsourcing has grown substantially in developed countries over the past two decades. This paper addresses the question of the technological drivers of this phenomenon by studying the impact of the staggered diffusion of broadband internet in France during the 2000s. Our results confirm that broadband technology increases firm productivity and the relative demand for high-skill workers. Further, we show that broadband internet led firms to outsource some non-core occupations to service contractors, both in the low and high-skill segments. In both cases, we find that employment related to these occupations became increasingly concentrated in firms specializing in these activities, and was less likely to be performed in-house within firms specialized in other activities. As a result, after the arrival of broadband internet, establishments become increasingly homogeneous in their occupational composition. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that high-skill workers experience salary gains from being outsourced, while low-skill workers lose out. |
| Keywords: | broadband, firm organization, labor market, outsourcing |
| JEL: | G14 G21 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14603&r= |
| By: | Fabian Busch; Robert Fenge; Carsten Ochsen |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how demographic changes of the labour force affect labour demand. Do firms adjust their hiring behaviour to an ageing society? Combining data at the firm level and the administrative district level, we analyse the hiring behaviour of firms. Our findings suggest that firms with an ageing workforce hire relatively more older workers. Since the willingness to hire older workers also increases with the share of older unemployed, the propensity to employ older people does generally rise with an ageing labour force. Also, part-time employment induces firms to engage more older workers but this effect disappears for large firms. In contrast, partial retirement regulations have a negative effect on hiring older workers which reveals unintended incentives of the German law on this matter. Finally, firms with a higher share of educated personnel demand more older workers. |
| Keywords: | ageing labour force, hiring of older workers, panel data models |
| JEL: | J11 J23 C33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9219&r= |
| By: | David Friederich; Lynn H. Kaack; Alexandra Luccioni; Bjarne Steffen |
| Abstract: | It is important for policymakers to understand which financial policies are effective in increasing climate risk disclosure in corporate reporting. We use machine learning to automatically identify disclosures of five different types of climate-related risks. For this purpose, we have created a dataset of over 120 manually-annotated annual reports by European firms. Applying our approach to reporting of 337 firms over the last 20 years, we find that risk disclosure is increasing. Disclosure of transition risks grows more dynamically than physical risks, and there are marked differences across industries. Country-specific dynamics indicate that regulatory environments potentially have an important role to play for increasing disclosure. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01415&r= |
| By: | Serzo, Aiken Larisa O. |
| Abstract: | The rise of digital platforms necessarily entails the processing of personal data between platforms and their users. More than enabling the delivery of services by the platforms, data shared by users has increasingly become valuable as various businesses are able to leverage their access to data in order to create and upsell other services. <p>However, the ability of platforms to engage in cross-border transactions or operations are affected by the stringent requirements of data protection laws, coupled with the divergent regulations among jurisdictions. <p>With the Philippines as an example, this paper points out the salient points in existing data protection regulations and the impact of these principles on both platforms and data subjects. <p> Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | regulatory reform, data privacy, digital platforms, data sharing |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-47&r= |
| By: | Advani, Arun (University of Warwick, CAGE Research Centre, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and the LSE International Inequalities Institute (LSE III)); Summers, Andy (?London School of Economics, LSE III, CAGE and IFS.); Tarrant, Hannah (LSE III) |
| Abstract: | We compare two approaches to measuring UK top income shares—the share of income going to particular subgroups, such as the top 1%. We set out four criteria that an ideal top share series should satisfy: (i) comparability between numerator and denominator; (ii) comparability over time; (iii) international comparability; and (iv) practical sustainability. Our preferred approach meets three of these; by contrast the approach currently used to produce UK fiscal income series meets none of them. Changing to our preferred approach matters quantitatively- the share of income going to the top 1% is 2 percentage points higher, but rising more slowly, than under the alternative. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, measurement, national accounts, top shares JEL Classification: D31, D63, E01, H2 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:490&r= |
| By: | Matteo Barigozzi; Giuseppe Cavaliere; Lorenzo Trapani |
| Abstract: | We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail index, or even knowledge as to whether certain moments (such as the variance) exist or not, and develop an estimator of the number of stochastic trends $m$ based on the eigenvalues of the sample second moment matrix of $y_{t}$. We study the rates of such eigenvalues, showing that the first $m$ ones diverge, as the sample size $T$ passes to infinity, at a rate faster by $O\left(T \right)$ than the remaining $N-m$ ones, irrespective of the tail index. We thus exploit this eigen-gap by constructing, for each eigenvalue, a test statistic which diverges to positive infinity or drifts to zero according to whether the relevant eigenvalue belongs to the set of the first $m$ eigenvalues or not. We then construct a randomised statistic based on this, using it as part of a sequential testing procedure, ensuring consistency of the resulting estimator of $m$. We also discuss an estimator of the common trends based on principal components and show that, up to a an invertible linear transformation, such estimator is consistent in the sense that the estimation error is of smaller order than the trend itself. Finally, we also consider the case in which we relax the standard assumption of \textit{i.i.d.} innovations, by allowing for heterogeneity of a very general form in the scale of the innovations. A Monte Carlo study shows that the proposed estimator for $m$ performs particularly well, even in samples of small size. We complete the paper by presenting four illustrative applications covering commodity prices, interest rates data, long run PPP and cryptocurrency markets. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13894&r= |
| By: | Andersen, Torben M.; Bhattacharya, Joydeep; Liu, Qing |
| Abstract: | The classic Aaron–Samuelson result argues that pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension schemes cannot coexist with higher-return, private, retirement-saving schemes. The ensuing literature shows if agents voluntarily undersave for retirement due to myopia or time-inconsistency, then a paternalistic, rationale for PAYG pensions arises only if voluntary retirement saving is fully crowded out because of a binding borrowing constraint. This paper generalizes the discussion to the reference-dependent utility setup of Kőszegi and Rabin (2009) where undersaving happens naturally. No borrowing constraint is imposed. We show it is possible to offer a non-paternalistic, welfare rationale for return-dominated, PAYG pensions to coexist with private, retirement saving. |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202107010700001813&r= |
| By: | HIDAKA Wataru; IKEDA Naoshi; INOUE Kotaro |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the motivations and the effects of the engagement activities by institutional investors in Japan by directly observing the private engagement activities of three large institutional investors. Taking advantage of the timing of the significant changes in the costs and benefits of engagement activities for institutional investors resulting from the revised Stewardship Code of 2017 which strongly promoted responsible monitoring by both asset managers and asset owners in Japan, we analyze a total of more than three thousand private engagements by large institutional investors in the period from 2017 to 2019. The main results are that each institutional investor engages with companies in which it has a high shareholding ratio and where the governance of the companies is poor. We show that the engagement activities increase the ratio of outside independent directors and the ratio of executive shareholdings, while they decrease the ratio of non-investment purpose shareholdings and abolish takeover defense measures of the target companies, indicating an improvement in governance of the target firms. In addition, we observed an increase in ROE and Tobin's Q at the target companies in the post-engagement period. These results indicate that engagement by institutional investors targets companies with poor governance and improves the governance and financial performance of the targeted companies. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:21036&r= |
| By: | Francesca Parodi |
| Abstract: | Consumption taxes are often used across OECD countries as fiscal stimulus tools during recessions. In this paper, I use an estimated structural life-cycle model featuring multiple consumption categories to assess the e ectiveness of temporary cuts to the Value Added Tax (VAT) rates on non-durable luxuries and durables as stimulus instruments. I find a tax elasticity smaller than 1 for non-durable luxuries and a tax elasticity higher than 10 for durables. I show that the tax cut on non-durables has an intratemporal substitu- tion effect on non-durables and an income e ect on durables and savings, while the tax cut on durables acts through an intertemporal substitution mechanism in the purchase of durables that is stronger for high income, liquidity unconstrained, and younger house- holds. Due to the partial irreversibility feature of durables, this mechanism is dampened if households anticipate higher future aggregate uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Taxation, Consumption, Durable goods, Saving, Welfare. |
| JEL: | D11 D15 E20 H20 H31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:658&r= |
| By: | Bauer, Kevin (Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE); Kosfeld, Michael (Goethe University Frankfurt); von Siemens, Ferdinand (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We study, theoretically and empirically, the effects of incentives on the self-selection and coordination of motivated agents to produce a social good. Agents join teams where they allocate effort to either generate individual monetary rewards (selfish effort) or contribute to the production of a social good with positive effort complementarities (social effort). Agents differ in their motivation to exert social effort. Our model predicts that lowering incentives for selfish effort in one team increases social good production by selectively attracting and coordinating motivated agents. We test this prediction in a lab experiment allowing us to cleanly separate the selection effect from other effects of low incentives. Results show that social good production more than doubles in the low-incentive team, but only if self-selection is possible. Our analysis highlights the important role of incentives in the matching of motivated agents engaged in social good production. |
| Keywords: | incentives, intrinsic motivation, self-selection, public service |
| JEL: | C91 D90 J24 J31 M52 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14595&r= |
| By: | Zaresani, Arezou (University of Manitoba); Olivo-Villabrille, Miguel (ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR)) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting a quasi-natural experiment and using administrative data, we examine the effects of the return-to-work policies' clawback regime in Disability Insurance (DI) programs on beneficiaries' labor supply decisions, allowing them to collect reduced DI payments while working. We compare two return-to-work policies: one with a single rate clawback regime and another with a progressive clawback regime where a reform further increased its progressiveness. The reform caused an increase in the mean labor supply; beneficiaries who already work, work more, and those who did not work start working. The effects are heterogeneous by beneficiaries characteristics, and the increase is driven mainly by top percentiles of earnings. Findings suggest an essential role for the clawback regime in return-to-work policies and targeted policies to increase the labor supply in DI programs. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, clawback rate, return-to-work policy, financial incentives, labor supply |
| JEL: | D3 H3 I3 J3 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14565&r= |
| By: | Suleyman Yukcu; Omer Aydin |
| Abstract: | Many fields have been affected by the introduction of concepts such as sensors, industry 4.0, internet of things, machine learning and artificial intelligence in recent years. As a result of the interaction of cyber physical systems with these concepts, digital twin model has emerged. The concept of digital twin has been used in many areas with its emergence. The use of this model has made significant gains, especially in decision making processes. The gains in decision making processes contribute to every field and cause changes in terms of cost. In this study, the historical development of the concept of digital twin has been mentioned and general information about the usage areas of digital twin has been given. In the light of this information, the cost effect of the digital twin model, therefore its appearance from the cost accounting window and its use as a cost reduction method were evaluated. This study was carried out in order to shed light on the studies with the insufficient resources in the Turkish literature and the cost accounting perspective. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14109&r= |
| By: | Karla Cordova; Markus M. Grabka; Eva Sierminska |
| Abstract: | We examine the gender wealth gap with a focus on pension wealth and statutory pension rights. By taking into account employment characteristics of women and men, we are able and identify the extent to which the redistributive effect of pension rights reduces the gap. The empirical basis of this examination is the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), which is one of the few datasets where information on wealth as well as on pension entitlements is collected at the individual level. Pension wealth data is available for 2012 only. Individual level wealth data allows to analyze the gender wealth gap between women and men across all households. Due to the longitudinal character of the underlying data, detailed information on employment trajectories and family related events (such as childbirth, marriage, divorce, widowhood, etc.), which can have an effect on (public) pension entitlements are considered. |
| Keywords: | Gender Wealth Gap, pension entitlements, Germany, redistribution, SOEP |
| JEL: | H55 D31 J16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1141&r= |
| By: | Simpson, Fergus O'Leary |
| Abstract: | It has been argued that protected areas give rise to forms of incremental ‘slow’ violence when populations are displaced from their lands and resources. The literature has shown how this can lead communities living at the edge of national parks to resist conservation regulations, often through everyday strategies designed to go under the radar of park authorities. I make an original contribution to this debate by exploring how conditions of slow violence and practices of covert resistance surrounding conservation projects can over time be transformed into forms of overt resistance and a state of ‘sudden’ violence. Taking a recent conflict over eastern Democratic Republic of Congo’s Kahuzi-Biega National Park as an illustrative example, I argue that an attempt by indigenous Batwa communities to violently take back parts of the park’s highland sector can be explained by three factors: first, the failure of forms ‘rights-based’ resistance strategies to achieve meaningful change; second, specific threats to Batwa livelihoods, identity and dignity that have emerged over recent years; third, the arrival of opportunities to forge new alliances with more powerful actors who could support their struggle. My overall argument speaks to the literature on conservation by exposing the intricate relationships between ‘everyday’ and ‘overt’ forms of resistance, and between ‘slow’ and ‘sudden’ violence. In turn, rather than romanticizing the Batwa’s actions, the paper shows how their struggle has ultimately intersected with elite interests, politico-military networks and wider conflict dynamics in a way that has led to widespread environmental destruction. |
| Keywords: | conservation; everyday resistance; overt resistance; slow violence; sudden violence; DR Congo; DRC |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:dpaper:202103&r= |
| By: | Kundu, Anustup (University of Helsinki); Sen, Kunal (University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | Most studies of intergenerational mobility focus on adjacent generations, and there is limited knowledge about multigenerational mobility that is, status transmission across three generations. We examine multigenerational educational and occupational mobility in India, using a nationally representative data-set the India Human Development Survey which contains information about education and occupation for three generations. We find that mobility has increased over generations for education, but not for occupation. We also find that there are stark differences across social groups, with individuals belonging to socially disadvantaged communities in India lagging behind in social progress. Multigenerational mobility for Muslims in education and occupation have decreased in comparison to Hindus over the three generations. While we find that there is an increase in educational mobility for other disadvantaged groups such as Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes compared to General Castes, we do not find evidence of increased occupational mobility over the three generations. |
| Keywords: | multigenerational mobility, occupational mobility, educational mobility, India |
| JEL: | J62 J15 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14566&r= |
| By: | Zhixiu Yu (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | The labor supply of older men increased from the 1930s to the 1950s cohort. I estimate a structural model that fits the participation and hours worked by the 1930s cohort well. The observed policy changes in normal retirement age, the earnings test, and delayed retirement credits explain 73.4% and 88.7% of the observed rises in labor force participation and hours worked by the 1950s cohort. Additional policy experiments suggest that postponing retirement age have little effect on older workers, while eliminating the earnings test and reducing retirement benefits would further increase older age participation by 3.37 and 5.10 percent, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Social Security reform, retirement, labor force participation, health, older workers |
| JEL: | D15 H55 I12 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2021-041&r= |
| By: | Christina Boll; Andreas Lagemann |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of work experience in migrant mothers’ current employment in Germany. Unlike previous papers, we focus on actual experience and add the motherhood aspect. To this end, we use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel 2013-2018 including the IAB-SOEP Migration Sample. Having immigrated to Germany and female sex are the two treatments of our sample of 491 migrant mothers, with 7,077 native mothers and 1,383 migrant fathers serving as control groups. Running LPM with individual FE and testing the robustness of the work experience estimators against a range of covariates and unobserved time-varying confounders with Oster bounds, we show that years of domestic part-time experience yield higher returns for migrant mothers compared to migrant fathers and non-migrant mothers. We conclude that current employment is significantly fueled by former employment; thus policies should be designed such that they help women to “get on the right track”. |
| Keywords: | migrant employment, maternal employment, LPM with individual FE, Oster test, actual work experience |
| JEL: | J61 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1140&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Gi-Eu Lee (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Sara Farhangdoost (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In support of economic development practitioners’ efforts to devise strategies that can align with both industrial clustering and industrial diversification, this report provides a wide range of relevant measures and metrics. In addition to standard regional analysis tools like coefficients of specialization, location quotients, and growth rates, we introduce two fundamentally new measures for understanding the nature of regional clusters. These measures focus on the industries that anchor the clusters and characterize their strength and regional dominance. The former measures the share of the anchor industry’s direct and indirect requirements that could be satisfied by regional industries, and the latter measures the share of the regional economy that is potentially oriented to the cluster anchor. We then apply an algorithm that identifies anchors and industries that might be further developed to strengthen the region’s industrial clusters. The design of the analysis commonly leads to the identification of different clusters, and thereby points to opportunities to strengthen within and diversify across clusters. Results of these analyses for all 120 micro- and metropolitan regions wholly within the Appalachian region are reported in the supplements to this methodological overview. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development, Industrial Strategy, Industry Clustering, Industrial Diversification |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R15 |
| Date: | 2021–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2021rp02&r= |
| By: | Bart van Ark (The Productivity Institute, Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester); Venables (The Productivity Institute, Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | The United Kingdom has suffered an extreme version of the “productivity puzzle†– the strong and largely unexplained slowdown in productivity growth among OECD economies since the mid-2000s. In recognition of the challenges that weak productivity growth and low levels of productivity create for economic performance, living standards, and distribution of income across regions, a new research institute has been set up to advance the understanding of the problem. The Productivity Institute will create a comprehensive and interdisciplinary research agenda and contribute to the frontier of knowledge creation in productivity research in the UK and around the world. The Institute will focus on innovative ways to improve productivity performance, providing new insights to help policy and business leaders understand better how to raise productivity and thereby raise living standards in a sustainable manner. This short paper outlines the overall approach to research, engagement and capacity building by the Institute. |
| Keywords: | productivity, UK economy |
| JEL: | D2 E02 L1 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:001&r= |
| By: | María Gómez-León (Universidad Pública de Navarra & INARBE); Giacomo Gabbuti (Faculty of History, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents new, yearly estimates of overall income inequality for Italy, from the first industrial 'take-off' to the eve of the ‘Economic Miracle’, contributing both to the comparative literature on the evolution of inequality in the interwar decades, and to the historiography of Italian fascism and its distributive legacy. By constructing dynamic social tables, we are able to obtain the first comprehensive assessment of all major components of Italian society, shedding light on overlooked ‘halves’ (women, self-employed workers, capital earners), and to consistently compare these results to estimates available for Britain, Germany and Spain. We identify a steep decline in inequality (especially within-labour) after the Great War, followed by a reversal between 1922 and 1931, a relative stability, and a further increase during WWII, this time driven by capital income. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nav:ecupna:2104&r= |
| By: | Chen, Yunxiao; Li, Xiaoou |
| Abstract: | We consider sequential change-point detection in parallel data streams, where each stream has its own change point. Once a change is detected in a data stream, this stream is deactivated permanently. The goal is to maximize the normal operation of the pre-change streams, while controlling the proportion of post-change streams among the active streams at all time points. Taking a Bayesian formulation, we develop a compound decision framework for this problem. A procedure is proposed that is uniformly optimal among all sequential procedures which control the expected proportion of post-change streams at all time points. We also investigate the asymptotic behavior of the proposed method when the number of data streams grows large. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the use and performance of the proposed method. |
| Keywords: | sequential analysis; change-point detection; compound decision; false non-discovery rate; large-scale inference |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111010&r= |
| By: | Christian Bayer; Simon Breneis |
| Abstract: | We consider rough stochastic volatility models where the variance process satisfies a stochastic Volterra equation with the fractional kernel, as in the rough Bergomi and the rough Heston model. In particular, the variance process is therefore not a Markov process or semimartingale, and has quite low H\"older-regularity. In practice, simulating such rough processes thus often results in high computational cost. To remedy this, we study approximations of stochastic Volterra equations using an $N$-dimensional diffusion process defined as solution to a system of ordinary stochastic differential equation. If the coefficients of the stochastic Volterra equation are Lipschitz continuous, we show that these approximations converge strongly with superpolynomial rate in $N$. Finally, we apply this approximation to compute the implied volatility smile of a European call option under the rough Bergomi and the rough Heston model. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05048&r= |
| By: | Barasinska, Nataliya; Ludwig, Johannes; Vogel, Edgar |
| Abstract: | Excessive household borrowing has been identified as an important determinant of financial crises. Borrower-based macroprudential instruments have been proposed as a possible remedy. In Germany, two instruments have been available to macroprudential supervisors since 2017: a cap on the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and an amortization requirement, but none of them has been activated so far. Therefore, this paper presents a simulation tool that allows the impact of activating of borrower-based instruments to be evaluated ex ante. The simulation is based on microdata from the German Panel on Household Finances (PHF) and is at the same time calibrated to match aggregate developments in the residential real estate market. This micro-macro consistent simulation approach can be used to detect vulnerabilities in household balance sheets and perform an ex ante analysis of the activation and calibration of borrower-based macroprudential instruments. An illustrative example of a hypothetical activation shows that the introduction of a cap on the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of new mortgage loans in Germany could improve important indicators of household vulnerability. |
| Keywords: | Household finance,mortgages,macroprudential policy,borrower-based instruments,financial stability |
| JEL: | D14 G17 G21 G28 R21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:202021&r= |
| By: | Maria Laura Di Tommaso; Dalit Contini; Dalila De Rosa; Francesca Ferrara; Daniela Piazzalunga; Ornella Robutti |
| Abstract: | We implement a teaching methodology aimed at improving primary school children’s mathematical skills. The methodology, grounded in active and cooperative learning, focuses on peer interaction, sharing of ideas, learning from mistakes, and problem solving. We evaluate the causal effect of the intervention on the gender gap in mathematics in Italy with a randomized controlled trial. The treatment significantly improves girls’ math performance (0.14 s.d.), with no impact on boys, and reduces the math gender gap by more than 40%. The effect is stronger for girls with high pre-test scores. |
| Keywords: | Gender gap, Mathematics, School achievement, Primary school, Active learning, Teaching methodologies, Randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J16 C93 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:657&r= |
| By: | Vadim Elenev; Luis E. Quintero; Alessandro Rebucci; Emilia Simeonova |
| Abstract: | Local policies can have substantial spillovers both across geographies and markets. Little is known about the impact of public health regulations across administrative borders. We estimate U.S. county level direct and spillover effects of Stay-at-Home-Orders (SHOs) aimed at containing the spread of COVID-19 on mobility and social interaction measures. We propose a modified difference-in-difference regression design, based on contiguous-county triplets. This approach compares treated counties, which adopted the SHO, and neighbors, to the neighbor's neighbors, which we term hinterland, counties. We find that mobility in neighboring counties declined by a third to a half as much as in the treated locations. These spillover effects are concentrated in neighbors that share media markets with treated counties. Using directional mobility data, we decompose the spillover decline in mobility into reductions in external visits coming from the treated county and an even stronger voluntary decline in the neighbor county's own traffic. Together, our results provide strong evidence that SHOs operate through information sharing and illustrate the quantitative importance of voluntary social distancing. The finding that the estimated spillovers are in the same direction as the direct effects casts doubt on the prevailing narrative that a more nationally coordinated policy response would have accomplished a greater reduction in mobility and contacts. |
| JEL: | H75 I1 I18 R1 R38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29088&r= |
| By: | Peilun He; Karol Binkowski; Nino Kordzakhia; Pavel Shevchenko |
| Abstract: | We study a bivariate latent factor model for the pricing of commodity fu- tures. The two unobservable state variables representing the short and long term fac- tors are modelled as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes. The Kalman Filter (KF) algorithm has been implemented to estimate the unobservable factors as well as unknown model parameters. The estimates of model parameters were obtained by maximising a Gaussian likelihood function. The algorithm has been applied to WTI Crude Oil NYMEX futures data. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01886&r= |
| By: | Adrian Jaeggi (Unknown); Aaron D. Blackwell (Unknown); Christopher von Rueden (Unknown); Benjamin C. Trumble (Unknown); Jonathan Stieglitz (IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse , UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées); Angela Garcia (Unknown); Thomas S. Kraft (Unknown); Bret A. Beheim (Unknown); Paul L. Hooper (Unknown); Hillard Kaplan; Michael Gurven |
| Keywords: | In high-income countries,one's relative socio-economic position and economic inequality may affect health and well-being,arguably via psychosocial stress. We tested this in a small-scale subsistence society,the Tsimane |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03306452&r= |
| By: | Elbaum Jean-David |
| Abstract: | This paper is a quasi-replication of Andersson (2019). I use the synthetic control method to estimate the effect of a carbon tax starting at $1.41 per tonne of CO2 and increased through successive reforms to $20 by 2011. The results show that, one year after the intervention, the tax reduced CO2 emissions from transport by around 10% relative to the synthetic counterfactual, composed from the weighted average of OECD countries. Five years after the intervention, the effect increases to almost 20% and in 2005, the last year of the dataset, the estimated effect is of around 48%. After some robustness checks, the estimated effect is a 15% reduction in 2005. My results are consistent with Andersson (2019), who finds a 12.5% reduction at the end of his studied period. My paper contributes to the thin literature analyzing the the effect of a carbon tax ex post, providing new evidence of the effectiveness of these instruments. |
| Keywords: | Solar systems; Carbon pricing; Emissions reduction; Environmental tax; Greenhouse gas emissions, Synthetic control method. |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:21-05&r= |
| By: | Cuenca, Janet S. |
| Abstract: | The government budget reflects the government’s spending priorities. It is deemed important to assess whether the priorities as outlined in the proposed 2020 President’s Budget are consistent with the policy pronouncements of the current administration. In this light, the study examines whether budget allocation is consistent with the priorities that the government identified in its various policy pronouncements. It also evaluates the overall fiscal picture as projected in the proposed budget and its consistency with the macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it examines the national revenue program, which together with the national expenditure program, indicates the overall fiscal health in 2020. The budget analysis indicates the high spending priority given to social services sector and economic services sector that is consistent with the policy pronouncements of the government. Nevertheless, the budget cut in the health sector needs further inquiry. |
| Keywords: | President’s Budget, National Revenue Program, National Expenditure Program, fiscal health, Philippines ? |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-13&r= |
| By: | Zhang, Lin; Shang, Yuanyuan; HUANG, Ying; Sivertsen, Gunnar |
| Abstract: | Peer review of scientific manuscripts before publication is essential in scholarly publishing, and most active researchers hold relationships with a number of journals as both an author and a reviewer. There have been several studies focusing on gender balance in academic research and authorship, but fewer studies on our role as reviewers. Publons is a commercial website run by Clarivate Analytics that allows researchers to track and verify their peer review activities and be recognized for it. The platform features over 2 million researchers and 6.9 million reviews for more than 5,000 partnered journals, listing the most active reviewers as “top reviewers”. Our study focuses on gender representation in this ‘top reviewer’ group while also looking at the countries, regions and research fields they represent, as well as the relationship between their roles as authors and reviewers. The results show that male reviewers dominate in almost all countries, regions, and research fields. Male reviewers generally contribute to review work more frequently than females; however, female reviewers write longer reviews. The correlations between reviewing activity and research activity are generally weak overall and within specific research fields. This may reflect that active reviewers are not necessarily the most productive researchers in their fields. What clearly emerges from our results is the need for more concern over gender representation in the quality assurance and gatekeeping functions of scholarly publishing. |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4z6w8&r= |
| By: | Francesca Biagini; Lukas Gonon; Thomas Reitsam |
| Abstract: | This article examines neural network-based approximations for the superhedging price process of a contingent claim in a discrete time market model. First we prove that the $\alpha$-quantile hedging price converges to the superhedging price at time $0$ for $\alpha$ tending to $1$, and show that the $\alpha$-quantile hedging price can be approximated by a neural network-based price. This provides a neural network-based approximation for the superhedging price at time $0$ and also the superhedging strategy up to maturity. To obtain the superhedging price process for $t>0$, by using the Doob decomposition it is sufficient to determine the process of consumption. We show that it can be approximated by the essential supremum over a set of neural networks. Finally, we present numerical results. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14113&r= |
| By: | Gregory E. Elliehausen; Simona Hannon; Thomas W. Miller, Jr. |
| Abstract: | Arkansas has been a popular place to study the effects of rate ceilings because of its exceptionally low interest rate ceiling. This paper examines the effects of the Arkansas rate ceiling on credit use by risky nonprime Arkansas consumers, which are especially vulnerable to credit rationing because of the low ceiling. We compare the level and composition of consumer debt of nonprime consumers in Arkansas with that of prime Arkansas consumers and also nonprime consumers in the neighboring states. We find that nonprime Arkansas consumers are less likely to have consumer debt and, conditional on having debt, have lower, but not much lower, levels of consumer debt than prime Arkansas consumers and nonprime consumers in neighboring states. Types of credit used by nonprime Arkansas consumers tend to differ from those of our comparison groups. Notable is much lower use of consumer finance loans, traditionally an important source of credit for higher risk consumers. This finding suggests rate-based rationing of risky consumers. Also notable is lower use of bank credit despite federal preemption of the rate ceiling for banks. This result is consistent with banks’ traditional avoidance of risky lending. |
| Keywords: | Consumer Credit; Access to Credit; Interest Rate Cap; Financial Regulation |
| JEL: | D14 G20 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-45&r= |
| By: | Khalifa, Sherin; Petri, Svetlana; Henning, Christian H. C. A. |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an analysis of the impact of extraordinary climate shocks on the incidence of civil conflict using cross-country panel data from Africa and the Middle East (1981 to 2015). We find that: (i) The estimated impact of climate shocks (mainly temperature effect) on economic growth rate and domestic food production ranges from 3 to 5% compared to the estimated impact of temperature growth 47%. (ii) We identified a direct impact of climate shocks on the incidence of civil conflict, where this impact is similar in magnitude to the negative impact of rainfall growth on conflict (3-4%). (iii) We confirmed the negative link between conflict and both economic indicators, conflict begets next conflict, the positive impact of good governance and polity IV estimates, and the freshwater availability on reducing the risk of conflict. Concluding that the main effect of climate comes from the temperature growth effects and it is not extreme shocks that drive economic declines, which indicates that the climate rather operates in a non-linear process. |
| Keywords: | Climate shocks,civil conflict,economic development |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202004&r= |
| By: | Kline, Patrick (University of California, Berkeley); Rose, Evan K. (University of Chicago); Walters, Christopher R. (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We study the results of a massive nationwide correspondence experiment sending more than 83,000 fictitious applications with randomized characteristics to geographically dispersed jobs posted by 108 of the largest U.S. employers. Distinctively Black names reduce the probability of employer contact by 2.1 percentage points relative to distinctively white names. The magnitude of this racial gap in contact rates differs substantially across firms, exhibiting a between-company standard deviation of 1.9 percentage points. Despite an insignificant average gap in contact rates between male and female applicants, we find a between-company standard deviation in gender contact gaps of 2.7 percentage points, revealing that some firms favor male applicants while others favor women. Company-specific racial contact gaps are temporally and spatially persistent, and negatively correlated with firm profitability, federal contractor status, and a measure of recruiting centralization. Discrimination exhibits little geographical dispersion, but two digit industry explains roughly half of the cross-firm variation in both racial and gender contact gaps. Contact gaps are highly concentrated in particular companies, with firms in the top quintile of racial discrimination responsible for nearly half of lost contacts to Black applicants in the experiment. Controlling false discovery rates to the 5% level, 23 individual companies are found to discriminate against Black applicants. Our findings establish that systemic illegal discrimination is concentrated among a select set of large employers, many of which can be identified with high confidence using large scale inference methods. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, audit studies, empirical bayes, q-values |
| JEL: | C11 C9 C93 J7 J71 J78 K31 K42 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14634&r= |
| By: | Yoshiyuki ARATA; Daisuke MIYAKAWA |
| Abstract: | Recent studies (e.g., Acemoglu et al (2012)) argue that microeconomic shocks to firms propagate on input-output linkages and result in aggregate fluctuations. However, little is known about the size of micro-originated aggregate fluctuations given the empirical firm-level input-output linkages. This paper analyzes the size of micro-originated aggregate fluctuations by combining probabilistic methods and the analysis of firm-level input-output linkages in Japan. We find that due to the heterogeneity of the input-output network, microeconomic shocks account for about 30% of observed aggregate variance, consistent with the granular hypothesis. However, we find that microeconomic shocks contribute almost nothing to the tail probability of aggregate output. This is because even when the CLT does not hold, the microeconomic shocks cancel each other out "to some extent", and the resultant distribution of aggregate output is close to a Gaussian. Therefore, given the empirical input-output network in Japan, our results show that microeconomic shocks turn out to cause aggregate fluctuations of a limited size. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21066&r= |
| By: | Vuong, Quan-Hoang |
| Abstract: | I hope the economy can make it through these unprecedented times when Hanoi entered its second social distancing, facing the 4th wave of Covid-19. For our efforts to protect the economic health of the nation in an effective way, learning from economic lessons from history will always be beneficial. |
| Date: | 2021–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:be7d2&r= |
| By: | Xun Li; Xiang Yu; Qinyi Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies an optimal consumption problem for a loss-averse agent with reference to past consumption maximum. To account for loss aversion on relative consumption, an S-shaped utility is adopted that measures the difference between the non-negative consumption rate and a fraction of the historical spending peak. We consider the concave envelope of the realization utility with respect to consumption, allowing us to focus on an auxiliary HJB variational inequality on the strength of concavification principle and dynamic programming arguments. By applying the dual transform and smooth-fit conditions, the auxiliary HJB variational inequality is solved in closed-form piecewisely and some thresholds of the wealth variable are obtained. The optimal consumption and investment control of the original problem can be derived analytically in the piecewise feedback form. The rigorous verification proofs on optimality and concavification principle are provided. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02648&r= |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Arabo Ewinyu; Kezia Lilenstein; Christopher Rooney; François Steenkamp; Amy Thornton (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 provides an overview of the performance of South Africa’s post-apartheid economy. In order to provide a reference point from which to compare the targeted products (sectors) generated using complexity analytics, Section 3 reviews South African industrial policy, specifically the Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP). Section 4 does the following: First, South Africa’s level of economic complexity is presented. South Africa’s economic complexity in relation to regional groupings and other African economies is also examined. Second, the product space approach is used to examine South Africa’s existing productive structure, as well the extent to which it has undergone structural transformation in the post-apartheid period. Section 5 uses complexity analytics to identify potential channels for future diversification. The approach is unique in the sense that the avenues for diversification are identified at the granular product level. In Section 6 we consider five industrial sectors that house a number of the frontier products, namely, agro-processing, transport, metals, machinery and equipment, and stone and glass. For each of these sectors, we describe the employment potential of the relevant frontier product, the diversification options that arise from manufacturing the product, and the constraints that hinder the realisation of the diversification path toward the frontier product. This is informed by firm and industry association interviews. Section 7 discusses employment trends for industries housing frontier products, by discussing whether growth in the industry will encourage higher levels of employment or not. This discussion focusses on the employment potential for women and youth. Section 8 of the paper identifies key themes that should inform policy considerations concerning diversification into the frontier products. |
| Keywords: | Economic complexity, economic development, South African economy, structural transformation, women, youth, employment |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:201905&r= |
| By: | Hopwood, Julian |
| Abstract: | Access to land for the Acholi people of northern Uganda still has much in common with understandings of the pre-colonial situation. This paper reflects on how collective landholding has faced over a century of hostile policy promoting land as private property. The notion of coloniality arises in this confrontation: the failure of communication ensuing from understanding Acholi social ordering in terms of false entities; and the foregrounding of land as object. The durability of colonial mechanisms emerges in processes such as the codification of the principles and practices of Acholi ‘customary land’. Pressure for land reform is driven by external bodies, UN agencies, donor governments and international NGOs, claiming to be seeking to protect the interest of the poor. Yet these offer no respite for the growing numbers of landless people - the colonial agenda appears to have its own momentum, serving no one’s interests. Meanwhile misunderstandings and misrepresentations of land holding groups entrenches the subaltern voicelessness of their members, isolating them from any support in dealing with the challenges of too many people on not enough land. |
| Keywords: | colonial durabilities; land; Uganda; Acholi; ES/P008038/1; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110502&r= |
| By: | Guido Ascari; Qazi Haque; Leandro M. Magnusson; Sophocles Mavroeidis |
| Abstract: | The Euler equation model for investment with adjustment costs and variable capital utilization is estimated using aggregate US post-war data with econometric methods that are robust to weak instruments and exploit information in possible structural changes. Various alternative identification assumptions are considered, including external instruments, and instruments obtained from Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. Results show that the elasticity of capital utilization and investment adjustment cost parameters are very weakly identified. This is because investment appears to be unresponsive to changes in capital utilization and the real interest rate. |
| Keywords: | Investment, Adjustment costs, Weak identification |
| JEL: | C2 E22 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-65&r= |
| By: | Hanol Lee; Jong-Wha Lee |
| Abstract: | Using a machine learning approach, we attempt to identify the school-, student-, and country-related factors that predict East Asian students’ higher PISA mathematics scores compared to their international peers. We identify student- and school-related factors, such as metacognition–assess credibility, mathematics learning time, early childhood education and care, grade repetition, school type and size, class size, and student behavior hindering learning, as important predictors of the higher average mathematics scores of East Asian students. Moreover, country-level factors, such as the proportion of youth not in education, training, or employment and the number of R&D researchers, are also found to have high predicting power. The results also highlight the nonlinear and complex relationships between educational inputs and outcomes. |
| Keywords: | education, East Asia, machine learning, mathematics test score, PISA |
| JEL: | C53 C55 I21 J24 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-66&r= |
| By: | Mohammad Rafiqul Islam; Masud Alam; Munshi Naser \.Ibne Afzal |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of nighttime light intensity on child health outcomes in Bangladesh. We use nighttime light intensity as a proxy measure of urbanization and argue that the higher intensity of nighttime light, the higher is the degree of urbanization, which positively affects child health outcomes. In econometric estimation, we employ a methodology that combines parametric and non-parametric approaches using the Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Bootstrap Aggregating that originate from machine learning algorithms. Based on our benchmark estimates, findings show that one standard deviation increase of nighttime light intensity is associated with a 1.515 rise of Z-score of weight for age after controlling for several control variables. The maximum increase of weight for height and height for age score range from 5.35 to 7.18 units. To further understand our benchmark estimates, generalized additive models also provide a robust positive relationship between nighttime light intensity and children's health outcomes. Finally, we develop an economic model that supports the empirical findings of this study that the marginal effect of urbanization on children's nutritional outcomes is strictly positive. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00926&r= |
| By: | Richard T. Froyen; Alfred V. Guender |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes that the Mundellian Trilemma remains valid despite the emergence of a world financial cycle. A clear distinction must be made between monetary policy independence and insulation of an open economy’s financial system. A flexible exchange rate allows an optimizing central bank to chart an independent course but does not insulate the domestic economy from foreign monetary or financial shocks. The gains from a flexible exchange rate may be considerable and vary in accordance with the mandate of the central bank. The Mundellian Trilemma highlights the acute shortage of policy instruments. We show that macroprudential policy in the form of an interest equalization tax, enhances the ability of an optimizing central bank to effectively stabilize domestic output and inflation in the presence of policy changes abroad and potentially destabilizing capital flows. |
| Keywords: | Mundellian Trilemma, policy independence, capital mobility, instrument shortage, capital controls |
| JEL: | E3 E5 F3 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-64&r= |
| By: | Kristina Hrehova; Erika Sandow; Urban Lindgren |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the impact of firm relocations on commuting distance and the probability of married couples and cohabiting couples with children separating. We use Swedish register data for 2010-2016 and select employees of relocating firms with one workplace and more than 10 employees. Focusing on this sample allows us to use plausibly exogenous variation in the commuting distance arising from the relocation. We extend the literature on the effect of commuting on relationship stability by reducing the possibility for unobserved time-variant factors to bias our estimates. While previous literature has focused on the difference between short- and long-distance commuting, we focus on changes in the commuting distance that are externally induced by firm management. We find a small but statistically significant negative effect of increased firm relocation distance on family stability. A 10 km change in commuting distance leads to a 0.09 percentage point higher probability of separation if the commuter remains with the firm for the next 5 years. |
| Keywords: | separation; marriage; commuting time; commuting distance; quasi-experiment; spatial mobility; |
| JEL: | J32 J61 R23 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp694&r= |
| By: | Dipanwita Pal (Galsi Mahavidyalaya, West Bengal, India) |
| Abstract: | Ecocriticism is, as put forward by Diamond and Orenstein, ‘a new term for ancient wisdom’. It is a value system that explores the connections between androcentrism and environmental destruction. The theory emerged from various social movements, from both activist and academic fields during the 1980s. Ecofeminism, as a movement, developed from antimilitarist action movement in the United States while founding a political platform for the US Green party. The term was first used by Francoise D’Eaubonne (1980) in her article “Feminism or Death.†From the mid-1970s, ecological critique turned to play a significant role in the women’s movements worldwide. |
| Keywords: | ecofeminism, value dualism, androcentrism, gender inequalities |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01244&r= |
| By: | Gian Paolo Clemente; Francesco Della Corte; Nino Savelli |
| Abstract: | The paper provides a stochastic model useful for assessing the capital requirement for demographic risk. The model extends to the market consistent context classical methodologies developed in a local accounting framework. In particular we provide a unique formulation for different non-participating life insurance contracts and we prove analytically that the valuation of demographic profit can be significantly affected by the financial conditions in the market. A case study has been also developed considering a portfolio of life insurance contracts. Results prove the effectiveness of the model in highlighting main drivers of capital requirement evaluation, also compared to local GAAP framework. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.10891&r= |
| By: | Joseph J. Sabia; Dhaval M. Dave; Fawaz Alotaibi; Daniel I. Rees |
| Abstract: | Recreational marijuana laws (RMLs), which legalize the possession of small quantities of marijuana for recreational use, have been adopted by 18 states and the District of Columbia. Opponents argue that RML-induced increases in marijuana consumption will serve as a “gateway” to harder drug use and crime. Using data covering the period 2000-2019 from a variety of national sources (the National Survey of Drug Use and Health, the Uniform Crime Reports, the National Vital Statistics System, and the Treatment Episode Data Set) this study is the first to comprehensively examine the effects of legalizing recreational marijuana on hard drug use, arrests, drug overdose deaths, suicides, and treatment admissions. Our analyses show that RMLs increase adult marijuana use and reduce drug-related arrests over an average post-legalization window of three to four years. There is little evidence to suggest that RML-induced increases in marijuana consumption encourage the use of harder substances or violent criminal activity. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 K14 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29038&r= |
| By: | Dmitry Arkhangelsky; Guido W. Imbens; Lihua Lei; Xiaoman Luo |
| Abstract: | We propose a new estimator for the average causal effects of a binary treatment with panel data in settings with general treatment patterns. Our approach augments the two-way-fixed-effects specification with the unit-specific weights that arise from a model for the assignment mechanism. We show how to construct these weights in various settings, including situations where units opt into the treatment sequentially. The resulting estimator converges to an average (over units and time) treatment effect under the correct specification of the assignment model. We show that our estimator is more robust than the conventional two-way estimator: it remains consistent if either the assignment mechanism or the two-way regression model is correctly specified and performs better than the two-way-fixed-effect estimator if both are locally misspecified. This strong double robustness property quantifies the benefits from modeling the assignment process and motivates using our estimator in practice. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13737&r= |
| By: | René M. Stulz; James G. Tompkins; Rohan Williamson; Zhongxia (Shelly) Ye |
| Abstract: | We develop a theory of bank board risk committees. With this theory, such committees are valuable even though there is no expectation that bank risk is lower if the bank has a well-functioning risk committee. As predicted by our theory (1) many large and complex banks voluntarily chose to have a risk committee before the Dodd-Frank Act forced bank holding companies with assets in excess of $10 billion to have a board risk committee, and (2) establishing a board risk committee does not reduce a bank’s risk on average. Using unique interview data, we show that the work of risk committees is consistent with our theory in part. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G34 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29106&r= |
| By: | Kyle Fee |
| Abstract: | The job access rate refers to the share of jobs in a region that can be reached within a typical commute distance or time. Job access rates in Northeast Ohio have declined continuously since 2000, as employment opportunities and the population have spread farther out (Kneebone and Holmes, 2015; Pacetti, Murray, and Hartman, 2016; Fee, 2020). Declining access to jobs has made it increasingly difficult for workers to reach their workplaces via public transportation, disproportionately impacting Black and economically distressed residents (Barkley and Pereira, 2015; Brown and McShepard, 2016). |
| Keywords: | jobs; transportation |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:c00034:92960&r= |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Zhang, Min |
| Abstract: | Does the variation in the quality of local government institutions affect the capacity of firms to innovate? This paper uses a unique dataset that combines the specific features of 2,700 firms with the institutional and socioeconomic characteristics of the 25 cities in China where they operate, in order to assess the extent to which institutional quality – measured across four dimensions: rule of law, government effectiveness, corruption, and regulatory quality – affects both the innovation probability and intensity of firms. The results of the econometric analysis show that poor institutional quality in urban China is an important barrier for firm-level innovation. In particular, a deficient rule of law, high corruption, and a weak regulatory quality strongly undermine firm-level innovation. The role of these factors is far more limited in the case of innovation intensity. Better institutions also reduce the amount of time firms spend dealing with government regulations in order to facilitate innovation. The results also indicate that the cost of weak institutions for innovation is higher for private than for state-owned firms, at least in the early stages of innovation. In general, differences in institutional quality generate local urban ecosystems that impinge on the propensity of firms to innovate. |
| Keywords: | innovation; institutions; government quality; firms; cities; China |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2020–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103321&r= |
| By: | Heller, Yuval; Kuzmics, Christoph |
| Abstract: | An equilibrium is communication-proof if it is unaffected by new opportunities to communicate and renegotiate. We characterize the set of equilibria of coordination games with pre-play communication in which players have private preferences over the feasible coordinated outcomes. Communication-proof equilibria provide a narrow selection from the large set of qualitatively diverse Bayesian Nash equilibria in such games. Under a communication-proof equilibrium, players never miscoordinate, play their jointly preferred outcome whenever there is one, and communicate only the ordinal part of their preferences. Moreover, such equilibria are robust to changes in players' beliefs, interim Pareto efficient, and evolutionarily stable. |
| Keywords: | cheaptalk, communication-proofness, renegotiation-proofness, secrethandshake, incomplete information, evolutionary robustness |
| JEL: | C72 C73 D82 |
| Date: | 2020–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102926&r= |
| By: | Victor Storchan; Svitlana Vyetrenko; Tucker Balch |
| Abstract: | In electronic trading markets often only the price or volume time series, that result from interaction of multiple market participants, are directly observable. In order to test trading strategies before deploying them to real-time trading, multi-agent market environments calibrated so that the time series that result from interaction of simulated agents resemble historical are often used. To ensure adequate testing, one must test trading strategies in a variety of market scenarios -- which includes both scenarios that represent ordinary market days as well as stressed markets (most recently observed due to the beginning of COVID pandemic). In this paper, we address the problem of multi-agent simulator parameter calibration to allow simulator capture characteristics of different market regimes. We propose a novel two-step method to train a discriminator that is able to distinguish between "real" and "fake" price and volume time series as a part of GAN with self-attention, and then utilize it within an optimization framework to tune parameters of a simulator model with known agent archetypes to represent a market scenario. We conclude with experimental results that demonstrate effectiveness of our method. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00664&r= |
| By: | Valentina Avramescu (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In the present paper were analyzed aspects regarding the tactical activity of the crime scene investigation. The purpose is to present, from a procedural point of view, the way of carrying out this activity, the importance of carrying it out, the presentation of the two stages of the research on the spot, including the activities and the way of carrying them out. |
| Keywords: | scene, forensic investigation, iter crimini, static stage, dynamic stage |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01254&r= |
| By: | Lebedinski, Lara (Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade); Migali, Giuseppe (Lancaster University); Popović, Miloš (Leiden University); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | This is the first paper that estimates the causal effect of the NATO's Operation Allied Force in Serbia in 1999, on children who were in the womb during the bombing. We investigate the in utero effect in terms of short-term outcomes, such as birthweight, as well as medium-term outcomes measured by grades of 15-year-old pupils at the end of primary school. Using the birth records of the Serbian Statistical Office, we estimate difference-in-differences models, combined with propensity score matching. We compare the birthweight of children born in the same year (1999) and in the months just before and after the bombing, and children born in the same months of the previous year (1998). We then exploit the data on educational achievement at the end of primary school, provided by the Ministry of Education, to estimate matching models of the effect of the bombing on individual grades. Our findings suggest that children in utero during the bombing were 2pp more likely to be born with a lower than average birthweight. In the medium-term, we find a statistically significant and negative effect (around −1%) of the bombing on maths grades and Serbian language at primary school, and a 1% increase in the probability to enrol on vocational secondary schools. Overall, our results confirm the importance of the negative effects on children in the aftermath of large-scale disasters, and the necessity of policy interventions to mitigate them. |
| Keywords: | human capital formation, children, armed conflict, in-utero effect |
| JEL: | J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14598&r= |
| By: | Christoph Siemroth; Lars Hornuf |
| Abstract: | Are investors willing to give up a higher return if the investment generates positive environmental impact? We investigate this question with a decision experiment among crowdfunders, where they choose between a higher return or environmental impact. Overall, 65% of investors choose environmental impact at the expense of a higher return for sufficiently large impact, 14% choose impact independent of the magnitude of impact, while 21% choose the higher return independent of impact. Combining the experimental data with historical investments, we find that investors allocate a larger share of funds to green projects if they value environmental impact more, and if they expect green projects to be more profitable. These findings suggest that investors have a preference for positive environmental impact, and satisfy it by investing in green projects. We further show that the preference for environmental impact is distinct from a preference for positive social impact. Finally, we introduce new survey measures of impact for future use, which are experimentally validated and predict field behavior. |
| Keywords: | debt crowdfunding, environmental impact, ESG, green investments, social impact, sustainable finance |
| JEL: | C93 D14 D90 G32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9197&r= |
| By: | Zhaolu Dong; Shan Huang; Simiao Ma; Yining Qian |
| Abstract: | Deep Reinforcement learning is a branch of unsupervised learning in which an agent learns to act based on environment state in order to maximize its total reward. Deep reinforcement learning provides good opportunity to model the complexity of portfolio choice in high-dimensional and data-driven environment by leveraging the powerful representation of deep neural networks. In this paper, we build a portfolio management system using direct deep reinforcement learning to make optimal portfolio choice periodically among S\&P500 underlying stocks by learning a good factor representation (as input). The result shows that an effective learning of market conditions and optimal portfolio allocations can significantly outperform the average market. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01758&r= |
| By: | Patrick Plane (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Le transport et la logistique sont une composante essentielle de la compétitivité. En Afrique, où ces coûts représentent entre 15 à 20% de la valeur CAF des importations, ils sont trois à quatre fois plus élevés qu'ailleurs dans le monde (Raballand et Teravaninthorn, 2009). Ils constituent un obstacle majeur à la diversification de la base productive (Alfonso et Vergara, 2019 ; Hoekman et Nicita, 2011). Compte tenu de la fragmentation des processus de production (Feenstra, 1998 ; Radelet et Sachs, 1998), les coûts commerciaux influencent fortement la rentabilité de la production de biens échangeables, freinant l'émergence de l'industrie manufacturière africaine et notamment des biens faisant partie de chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales (Christ et Ferrantino, 2011). Il y a une vingtaine d'années, Limao et Venables (2001) établissaient que les coûts du transport terrestre étaient 7 fois plus élevés par unité de distance que ceux du transport maritime qui représente plus de 80% du commerce extérieur de l'Afrique. |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03288811&r= |
| By: | Alberto Dalmazzo (University of Siena); Guido de Blasio (Bank of Italy); Samuele Poy (University of Piemonte Orientale) |
| Abstract: | We model the impact of public housing supply on local development by using a spatial equilibrium model with a “share-altering†technological shift from agriculture to manufacturing. The model shows that a larger local availability of houses triggers greater population growth and, consequently, industrialization. It also suggests that these effects are stronger in places that exhibited, prior to the public housing plan, relatively higher population density. These implications are broadly confirmed by an empirical evaluation of the INA-Casa plan, a program implemented by the Italian government in the aftermath of WWII. |
| Keywords: | housing policy, urbanization, industrialization |
| JEL: | O14 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp20&r= |
| By: | Adjin, K. Christophe; Henning, Christian H. C. A. |
| Abstract: | This paper aimed to analyse Senegalese farmers' technical efficiency in the context of climate variability and spatial heterogeneity. To achieve this, firstly using simulated data, we evaluated the newly developed spatial stochastic frontier estimation technique based on skew-normal distributions. Secondly, using cross-sectional survey data we conducted an empirical analysis for 4423 Senegalese farm households. Simulation results show that the estimation approach used is appropriate and produces consistent results with large sample sizes, although it might suffer from a "starting values" problem. Empirical findings reveal that agricultural production in Senegal mostly depends on the allocated area and it is highly affected by climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature. Moreover, within a radius of 4 km, the technical efficiency of farms appears to be significantly affected by unobserved spatial features. Furthermore, this farm's technical efficiency can on average be increased by 20%, when accounting for spatial heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | Climate variability,Farm efficiency,Spatial heterogeneity,Senegal |
| JEL: | Q54 C21 D24 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202009&r= |
| By: | Eric Schniter (Economic Science Institute, Chapman University and Division of Anthropology, California State University, Fullerton); J. Dustin Tracy (Economic Science Institute, Chapman University); Vojtech Zika (Economics Science Institute, Chapman University and Evangelista Purkyne University) |
| Abstract: | Credence-goods experiments have thus far have focused on stylized setting in which experts can perfectly identify the consumers’ best option and that option works without fail. However, naturally these situa-tions are as much art as science, with uncertainties that complicate assessing the quality of service and advice. We introduce two sources of uncertainty into a credence good experiment. The first is diagnostic uncertainty; experts receive a noisy signal of consumer type so might make an ‘honest’ mistake when advising what is in consumers’ best interests. The second is service uncertainty; the services available to the consumer do not always work. Both sources of uncertainty make detection of expert dishonesty more diÿcult, so are expected increase dishonesty by experts and decrease consumer trust (willingness to consult experts for advice and to follow expert advice) – decreasing eÿciency of the interactions. We also test how consumers use ratings and whether ratings restrain both dishonesty and distrust by creating reliable reputations. In contrast to predictions, we find that uncertainty decreases dishonesty and increases trust. Also in contrast to predictions, ratings do not improve eÿciency of the transactions under uncertainty – in part due to buyers’ tendency to “shoot the messenger†(give low ratings) when they buy service that does not work due to bad luck, and to give experts the “benefit of the doubt†(high ratings) when they buy service that may have been intentionally over-provided (not in the consumer’s best interest). |
| Keywords: | Credence Goods, Uncertainty, Principal Agent, Ratings |
| JEL: | D82 L14 L15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:21-15&r= |
| By: | Brian Ning; Sebastian Jaimungal; Xiaorong Zhang; Maxime Bergeron |
| Abstract: | We propose a hybrid method for generating arbitrage-free implied volatility (IV) surfaces consistent with historical data by combining model-free Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) with continuous time stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven models. We focus on two classes of SDE models: regime switching models and L\'evy additive processes. By projecting historical surfaces onto the space of SDE model parameters, we obtain a distribution on the parameter subspace faithful to the data on which we then train a VAE. Arbitrage-free IV surfaces are then generated by sampling from the posterior distribution on the latent space, decoding to obtain SDE model parameters, and finally mapping those parameters to IV surfaces. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04941&r= |
| By: | Lise Arena (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019)) |
| Abstract: | This chapter assesses Oxford's contributions to the emergence and institutionalisation of industrial economics as an academic discipline. Based on the analysis of primary sources (interviews, unpublished documents, archives, academic journals and teaching programmes), it charts and evaluates the gradual and, at times, conflictual process of the institutionalisation of industrial economics at Oxford from the 1920s to the 1980s. We show that Oxford's contribution to industrial economics was not attributable to any specific school of thought, as could be argued was the case for Cambridge. This was mainly due to the lack of emblematic figures at Oxford and/or the relative isolation of successive individuals elected to the Drummond Chair. Yet, it is argued that Oxford produced a unified methodological body and a unique approach to industrial economics based on an empirical approach to the firm and to organisations. |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03290294&r= |
| By: | Adam Lee; Geert Mesters |
| Abstract: | All parameters in linear simultaneous equations models can be identified (up to permutation and scale) if the underlying structural shocks are independent and if at most one of them is Gaussian. Unfortunately, existing inference methods that exploit such a non-Gaussian identifying assumption suffer from size distortions when the true shocks are close to Gaussian. To address this weak non-Gaussian problem, we develop a robust semi-parametric inference method that yields valid confidence intervals for the structural parameters of interest regardless of the distance to Gaussianity. We treat the densities of the structural shocks non-parametrically and construct identification robust tests based on the efficient score function. The approach is shown to be applicable for a broad class of linear simultaneous equations models in cross-sectional and panel data settings. A simulation study and an empirical study for production function estimation highlight the practical relevance of the methodology. |
| Keywords: | weak identification, semiparametric modeling, independent component analysis, simultaneous equations. |
| JEL: | C12 C14 C30 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1278&r= |
| By: | Karol Binkowski; Peilun He; Nino Kordzakhia; Pavel Shevchenko |
| Abstract: | The two unobservable state variables representing the short and long term factors introduced by Schwartz and Smith in [16] for risk-neutral pricing of futures contracts are modelled as two correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. The Kalman Filter (KF) method has been implemented to estimate the short and long term factors jointly with un- known model parameters. The parameter identification problem arising within the likelihood function in the KF has been addressed by introduc- ing an additional constraint. The obtained model parameter estimates are the conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) evaluated within the KF. Consistency of the conditional MLEs is studied. The methodology has been tested on simulated data. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01881&r= |
| By: | Susan von Struensee |
| Abstract: | There is mounting public concern over the influence that AI based systems has in our society. Coalitions in all sectors are acting worldwide to resist hamful applications of AI. From indigenous people addressing the lack of reliable data, to smart city stakeholders, to students protesting the academic relationships with sex trafficker and MIT donor Jeffery Epstein, the questionable ethics and values of those heavily investing in and profiting from AI are under global scrutiny. There are biased, wrongful, and disturbing assumptions embedded in AI algorithms that could get locked in without intervention. Our best human judgment is needed to contain AI's harmful impact. Perhaps one of the greatest contributions of AI will be to make us ultimately understand how important human wisdom truly is in life on earth. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14052&r= |
| By: | Muriel Gilardone (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Ce papier est la première contribution au projet scientifique interdisciplinaire porté par Marie Rota, visant à valoriser le rôle des plantes au travers du procédé de l'écriture. Il expose la perspective épistémologique du point de vue économiste qui sera proposé dans le cadre des différents ateliers de ce projet : une perspective critique de l'économie standard, et l'exploration d'une approche alternative au croisement de la philosophie du développement humain théorisé par Amartya Sen et de l'éthique permaculturelle initiée par Bill Mollison et David Holmgren. Il constituera une annexe du chapitre 1 de l'ouvrage à paraître aux éditions Le Bord de l'eau : Marie Rota (Ed.) (2021), Écrire les plantes. Une approche interdisciplinaire. |
| Keywords: | human development,économics,ecology,plants,capabilities,permacultural ethics,greening of economics |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03276515&r= |
| By: | Haering, Alexander |
| Abstract: | In this study I analyze how lottery framing and lottery display type affect the degree of higher-order risk preferences. I explore differences by comparing reduced and compound lottery framing, and by comparing lotteries in an urn-style and in a spinner-style display format. Overall, my findings show that individual behavior is influenced by lottery framing but not by display format. |
| Keywords: | Risk aversion,prudence,temperance,higher-order risk preferences,lottery framing |
| JEL: | C91 D81 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:913&r= |
| By: | Tom Phelan; Alexis Toda |
| Abstract: | We analyze equilibrium behavior and optimal policy within a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model augmented with potentially undiagnosed agents who infer their health status and a social planner with imperfect enforcement of social distancing. We define and prove the existence of a perfect Bayesian Markov competitive equilibrium and contrast it with the efficient allocation subject to the same informational constraints. We identify two externalities, static (individual actions affect current risk of infection) and dynamic (individual actions affect future disease prevalence), and study how they are affected by limitations on testing and enforcement. We prove that a planner with imperfect enforcement will always wish to curtail activity, but that its incentives vanish as testing becomes perfect. When a vaccine arrives far into the future, the planner with perfect enforcement may encourage activity before herd immunity. We find that lockdown policies have modest welfare gains, whereas quarantine policies are effective even with imperfect testing. |
| Keywords: | efficiency; externalities; lockdown; perfect Bayesian equilibrium; quarantine |
| JEL: | C73 D50 D62 I12 |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:92950&r= |
| By: | Matteo Aquilina; Eric Budish; Peter O'Neill |
| Abstract: | We use stock exchange message data to quantify the negative aspect of high-frequency trading, known as "latency arbitrage". The key difference between message data and widely familiar limit order book data is that message data contain attempts to trade or cancel that fail. This allows the researcher to observe both winners and losers in a race, whereas in limit order book data you cannot see the losers, so you cannot directly see the races. We find that latency arbitrage races are very frequent (about one per minute per symbol for FTSE 100 stocks), extremely fast (the modal race lasts 5-10 millionths of a second), and account for a remarkably large portion of overall trading volume (about 20%). Race participation is concentrated, with the top six firms accounting for over 80% of all race wins and losses. The average race is worth just a small amount (about half a price tick), but because of the large volumes the stakes add up. Our main estimates suggest that races constitute roughly one third of price impact and the effective spread (key microstructure measures of the cost of liquidity), that latency arbitrage imposes a roughly 0.5 basis point tax on trading, that market designs that eliminate latency arbitrage would reduce the market's cost of liquidity by 17%, and that the total sums at stake are on the order of $5 billion per year in global equity markets alone. |
| Keywords: | market design, high-frequency trading, financial exchanges, liquidity, latency arbitrage, trading volume, message data |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:955&r= |
| By: | Karthikeya Naraparaju (Indian Institute of Management, Indore); S. Chandrsekhar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | We assess the relative importance of factors contributing to poverty reduction in rural India, between 2004-05 and 2011-12, a period when India was one of the fastest growing economies of the world, at the national as well as sub-national level. We quantify the relative importance of population shifts across land size classes in determining the pace of poverty reduction vis-…-vis the intra-land size class growth in average consumption and redistribution components. While we do not find population shifts to be a statistically significant factor in explaining poverty reduction, we find that growth in intra land consumption is the dominant factor accounting for poverty reduction in each Indian state as well as at the national level. While the impact of redistribution component varied at the sub-national level, overall, it marginally impeded the pace of poverty reduction at the national level. |
| Keywords: | Poverty change, Decomposition, Growth, Redistribution, Population-shifts, Rural India |
| JEL: | I32 J1 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-015&r= |
| By: | Francisco Haimovich (The World Bank); Emmanuel Vazquez (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Melissa Adelman (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Across many low- and middle-income countries, a sizable share of young people drop out of school before completing a full course of basic education. Early warning systems that accurately identify students at risk of dropout and support them with targeted interventions have shown results and are in widespread use in high-income contexts. This paper presents impact evaluation results from an early warning system pilot program in Guatemala, a middle-income country where nearly 40 percent of sixth graders drop out before completing ninth grade. The pilot program, which was implemented in 17 percent of Guatemala’s primary schools and largely leveraging existing government resources, reduced the dropout rate in the transition from primary to lower secondary school by 4 percent (1.3 percentage points) among schools assigned to the program, and by 9 percent (3 percentage points) among program compliers. Although the effect size is relatively modest, the low cost of the program (estimated at less than US$3 per student) and successful implementation at scale make this a promising and cost-effective approach for reducing dropout in resource-constrained contexts like Guatemala. AEA RCT ID: AEARCTR-0004091 |
| JEL: | I2 I3 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0285&r= |
| By: | Mauro Bucci (Banca d'Italia); Elena Gennari (Banca d'Italia); Giorgio Ivaldi (Banca d'Italia); Giovanna Messina (Banca d'Italia); Luca Moller (Banca d'Italia) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a methodological contribution to the assessment of the infrastructure endowment for a territory. Compared with existing indicators based on expenditure or physical properties – which can be misleading as they examine only a single dimension – the advantages of the proposed method lie in three features: first, its flexible methodology, which adapts the measurement criteria to the function and nature of different infrastructures; second, the geographical detail, as far down as to 611 economically homogeneous partitions of the Italian territory whenever data availability allows it; third, the ample set of infrastructures considered, both economic (transport networks, ports, airports, power grids, water distribution, fixed and mobile telecommunication networks) and social (health care and waste management facilities). The analysis documents significant infrastructure gaps in Italy, often highlighting a disadvantage for the South and the Islands. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, utilities, telecommunication networks, transportation networks, health care, waste management |
| JEL: | H54 H42 H51 L90 R40 R58 I1 Q53 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_635_21&r= |
| By: | Karen CyBulski; Melissa Krakowiecki; Larry Vittoriano; Matt Potts |
| Abstract: | The Behavioral Health Services Information System (BHSIS) is a congressionally mandated data collection on substance abuse and mental health treatment services, sponsored by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA). |
| Keywords: | National Mental Health Services Survey (N-MHSS), telemedicine, mental health treatment, mental health professional shortage areas, Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:2b094a66a3d9446695b19eeeeb831be5&r= |
| By: | Fitjar, Rune Dahl; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | The role of cities in fostering innovation has for long been taken for granted. Agglomeration and the knowledge spillovers generated in dense urban environments have been considered fundamental drivers of innovation. This view has, however, become challenged by research questioning the returns to physical agglomeration and local networking, placing instead more emphasis on the importance of interregional and international collaboration, and on innovation in peripheral regions. This paper delves into the debate on the role of cities for innovation by examining the interplay between urban location and local collaboration in Norway. It uses data from the Community Innovation Survey for 2006–2010 to map out the geographical dimension of R&D collaboration in Norwegian firms with a view to assessing whether different types of R&D collaboration in urban and rural locations affect firms’ propensity to innovate. The results show that local collaboration is associated with increased process and organisational innovation, while it does not produce higher levels of product or marketing innovation. Conversely, international collaboration is connected with higher probabilities of product, new-to-market and marketing innovations. Furthermore, location in urban or rural areas makes no difference for most innovation outcomes in Norway when other characteristics are controlled for. Location in cities also does not shape the returns to local R&D collaboration. Hence, the role of cities for innovation in Norway, whether in themselves or as sites for dense local interaction, is less relevant than the urban innovation literature would predict. |
| Keywords: | innovation; firms; networking; collaboration; cities; Norway; 209761 |
| JEL: | L25 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2020–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101306&r= |
| By: | Mahmoud Fatouh (Bank of England); Simone Giansante (University of Bath - School of Management); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the interaction of the Brexit and COVID waves of the Bank of England’s quantitative easing with the leverage ratio capital requirements or government COVID lending support schemes affected bank business lending. We find that the former QE programme was particularly successful in increasing lending to nonfinancial businesses, except for QE-banks subject to the UK leverage ratio, suggesting that the latter ratio incentivized QE-banks to lend to business anyway. The government schemes helped expand lending especially to SMEs post QE COVID, indicating that complementing QE with other credit easing programmes can improve its impact on lending to the real economy. During COVID-stress, changes to the UK leverage ratio supported better market-making in securities markets, and additional QE liquidity boosted stronger repo market intermediation. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, quantitative easing, bank lending, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E51 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2154&r= |
| By: | Maebayashi, Noritaka |
| Abstract: | This study investigates expenditure- and tax-based consolidations under the rule of reductions in debt-to-GDP ratios to the target level as well as the effects of these consolidations on fiscal sustainability and welfare, using an overlapping generations model with exogenous growth settings. We derive (i) the global transition dynamics of the economy, (ii) a threshold (ceiling) of public debt to ensure fiscal sustainability, (iii) sustainable paces of these consolidations, and (iv) optimal pace of consolidations from viewpoints of both social welfare and fairness of each generation's welfare. We find that higher paces or lower targets of debt-to-GDP ratio make fiscal policies more sustainable. The pace required of tax-based consolidation to ensure fiscal sustainability is higher than that required of expenditure-based consolidation. As for welfare, countries may differ in their choice of the type of consolidation. It depends on how large outstanding debts relative to capital are and how large the utility derived by individuals from public goods and services is. By contrast, a common result from the viewpoints of both social welfare and fair distribution of welfare across generations is that very slow pace of fiscal consolidation cannot be supported. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal consolidation, Paces of consolidation, Fiscal sustainability, Welfare |
| JEL: | E62 H40 H60 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109059&r= |
| By: | Mehryar, Sara; Sasson, Idan; Surminski, Swenja |
| Abstract: | Cities are emerging as leading forces for climate change adaptation and resilience due to their financial, technological, and human capacities. Many approaches and tools have been developed and used over the last decades to measure climate resilience in cities and identify areas that need further intervention. In this study, we explore how and to what extent such tools can be or have been utilized by city-level actors to support their decision-making process for building climate resilience. To do this, we applied a document analysis of 27 tools developed for measuring urban climate resilience and supplemented it with 12 semi-structured interviews with local experts involved in implementation of these tools across the world. Our analysis shows that only 10 of these tools are designed to support implementing resilience actions while the rest mainly focus on sharing knowledge and raising awareness. We also observed a prevailing focus on evaluating coping capacities (as opposed to adaptive and transformative capacities) of cities against climate risks in such tools, which tends to trigger short-term solutions rather than long-term transformational adaptation strategies. Therefore, we argue that urban climate resilience measurement tools need to 1) support action implementation processes as much as assessing outcomes, and 2) consider the enabling environment for enhancing adaptive and transformative capacities as much as coping capacities of cities. Finally, we explore challenges and opportunities of resilience measurement practices for decision-making drawn from end-users’ insights. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111057&r= |
| By: | Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos (University of Essex); Comunello, Camila (University of Essex); Clymo, Alex (University of Essex); Jäckle, Annette (University of Essex); Visschers, Ludo (University of Edinburgh); Zentler-Munro, David (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the UK labour market has been extremely heterogeneous, with strong variation both by occupation and industrial sector. The extent to which workers adjust their job search behaviour in response to this reallocation of employment has an important bearing on the future course of the labour market. At an aggregate level we see evidence consistent with search responding to changes to the state of the economy. In particular, changes to job search by employees are closely linked to changes in vacancies, and we also see ows from unemployment to inactivity peak at the same time as vacancies bottom-out. A key novelty in this paper is that we can additionally see whether the link between job search and changing employment patterns holds at a micro level, using the COVID supplement of the UK Household Longitudinal Survey, which shows the industries and occupations targeted by job searchers. The vast majority of job searchers target growing occupations and industries, which suggests job searchers are responding to conditions at a micro as well as macro level. This is also suggested by the fact that job searchers who were in occupations that expanded in the pandemic seek to switch occupations less frequently than those in shrinking occupations. |
| Keywords: | job search, sectoral mobility, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E24 J23 J63 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14582&r= |
| By: | Masahito Ambashi (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates which technological development scheme is desirable in technology competition and cumulative innovation with significant uncertainty included in the follow-on innovation. Technology competition is likely to generate a socially overincentive for innovation especially when consumer surplus is negligible. This paper first finds that grant-back clause combined with an appropriate distribution of expected profits mitigates the socially overinvestments in both the initial and follow-on technologies, and therefore, improves social welfare. In particular, this paper shows that if a government authority can specify a particular distribution of expected profits between the firms, the socially optimal investment in the initial technology can be realized. On the other hand, assuming significantly positive consumer surplus instead, this paper reveals that competition in the follow-on technology creates higher social welfare as consumer surplus is large. |
| Keywords: | technology competition, cumulative innovation, initial and follow-on technologies, technological development scheme, grant-back clause |
| JEL: | L24 O32 O34 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1065&r= |
| By: | Chlond, Bettina; Gavard, Claire; Jeuck, Lisa |
| Abstract: | In the context of tight public budgets and increasingly ambitious climate objectives, the performance of the support policies for residential energy conservation works needs to be assessed. We compare the performance of four types of support schemes in France, namely the income tax credit, a grant scheme, the reduction of the value-added tax, and the White Certificates scheme. The analysis employs a dataset covering close to 14,000 French households who conducted conservation works in France. To address self-selection bias and potential endogeneity concerns, we use a double-robust inverse probability weighting estimator, a method mostly used in epidemiology so far. We assess the effect of the adoption of each scheme on the funding acquired, the private investment, total investment and the reduction of the household energy expenses. We deduct metrics of cost-effectiveness, redistribution and the ability to trigger private investment and additional total investment in energy conservation works via the schemes. We find funding from the schemes to reduce energy expenses most cost-effectively via the White Certificates. Additional private and total investment is highest with the adoption of the VAT reduction. The redistribution of public funds to low-income households is highest with the grant scheme. |
| Keywords: | Energy efficiency,energy conservation,residential retrofits,cost-effectiveness,re-distribution,inverse probability weighting |
| JEL: | H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21056&r= |
| By: | Mark A. Carlson; Zack Saravay; Mary Tian |
| Abstract: | Before the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve (Fed) regularly conducted repurchase agreements (repos) in a fairly modest size with primary dealers to adjust the supply of reserves in the banking system and to keep the federal funds rate at the target set by the FOMC. During the economic downturn that followed the financial crisis, the Fed engaged in large scale asset purchases in order to provide additional monetary accommodation, and those purchases significantly increased the supply of reserves and eliminated the need for the Fed to engage in repo operations to increase reserves in the system. |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-08-06-1&r= |
| By: | Thomas Conlon; John Cotter; Iason Kynigakis |
| Abstract: | We examine machine learning and factor-based portfolio optimization. We find that factors based on autoencoder neural networks exhibit a weaker relationship with commonly used characteristic-sorted portfolios than popular dimensionality reduction techniques. Machine learning methods also lead to covariance and portfolio weight structures that diverge from simpler estimators. Minimum-variance portfolios using latent factors derived from autoencoders and sparse methods outperform simpler benchmarks in terms of risk minimization. These effects are amplified for investors with an increased sensitivity to risk-adjusted returns, during high volatility periods or when accounting for tail risk. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.13866&r= |
| By: | Ademmer, Martin; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Fiedler, Salomon; Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Groll, Dominik; Hauber, Philipp; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Meuchelböck, Saskia; Stolzenburg, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Aktuell schätzen wir das Niveau des Produktionspotenzials in den kommenden Jahren rund 1 Prozent niedriger ein als noch vor der Pandemie. Im Vergleich zu früheren schweren Wirtschaftskrisen ist dieser Potenzialverlust gering und impliziert, dass die bestehenden Produktionsstrukturen nicht in beträchtlichen Umfang in Frage gestellt werden. Unabhängig von der Corona-Krise dürfte das Wachstum des Produktionspotenzials allerdings seinen - maßgeblich vom demografischen Wandel getriebenen - Sinkflug fortsetzen und im Projektionszeitraum auf unter 1 Prozent fallen. Die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionskapazitäten dürften nach der Pandemie rasch wieder normal ausgelastet sein. So liegt die Produktionslücke unserer Schätzung zufolge im laufenden Jahr bei -2,9 Prozent, nach -5,1 Prozent im Jahr zuvor. Im Jahr 2022 wird sie voraussichtlich sogar leicht positiv sein. |
| Keywords: | Produktionslücke,Produktionspotenzial,Mittelfristprojektion,Totale Faktorproduktivität,Konjunktur Deutschland,Fiskalpolitik & Haushalt,Deutschland,Wachstum,Arbeitsmarkt |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:78&r= |
| By: | Martín Lagos |
| Abstract: | El 3 de diciembre de 2001, mediante el decreto de necesidad y urgencia 1570/01, el gobierno nacional dispuso la inconvertibilidad a billetes de la mayoría de los depósitos bancarios. En este trabajo se recrea el contexto histórico que precedió y rodeó a tan extrema decisión. Asimismo, se puntualizan varios defectos en el “diseño” de la medida, que provocaron daños evitables – incluso, nada menos que la caída de un gobierno constitucional. Se atribuyen estos defectos a cierto desconocimiento de la naturaleza de los depósitos bancarios, principalmente de las diferencias entre aquellos constituidos “a plazo fijo”, que son mayormente reservas de valor, y los conocidos como “a la vista”, esencialmente transaccionales. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:803&r= |
| By: | Paterson, Sarah |
| Abstract: | This article is, so far as the author is aware, the first to examine in detail the implications of the explosion of covenant-lite loans for English corporate insolvency law. Covenant-lite loans lack certain early warning mechanisms that have traditionally been found in loans to heavily indebted borrowers. Concerns about the implications of covenant-lite loans have been raised in the broadcast and print media, and by economists and central banks in England and the United States. This is an issue that matters to us all. This article argues that covenant-lite lending means that lenders and borrowers may start restructuring negotiations when the scale of the distress is acute, implicating operational and financial liabilities. It provides a detailed analysis of the additional corporate insolvency law tools which may be needed as a result, and explains why this analysis is relevant for the detailed working out of current corporate insolvency law reform proposals. |
| Keywords: | covenant-lite loans; private equity; corporate insolvency; corporate bankruptcy; corporate restructuring; corporate reorganisation |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2019–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100746&r= |
| By: | Hochman, Gal; Zhang, Hainan; Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan; Aleti, Saketh; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique Y.; Jagermeyr, Jonas |
| Abstract: | A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and large impacts on agricultural productivity. These e↵ects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how the price and availability of food worldwide would change by employing the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium model. It evaluates how results depend on assumptions about how free trade would continue in a post-war economic environment. The results suggest that preserving the world trading system is key to preventing widespread food shortages as a thriving world trading system minimizes the costs born from disruptions to climate. The analysis shows that the regional nuclear war scenario would a↵ect regional food supply systems, especially in high latitude regions. Although the global average impact on wheat is only a few percentage points, the regional nuclear war leads wheat production in EU 28 countries to plumed, on average, by more than 15%. The model also suggests that regional impacts may result in a plausible domino e↵ect with substantial negative ramifications for local food supplies. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313021&r= |
| By: | Eghbal Rahimikia; Stefan Zohren; Ser-Huang Poon |
| Abstract: | We develop FinText, a novel, state-of-the-art, financial word embedding from Dow Jones Newswires Text News Feed Database. Incorporating this word embedding in a machine learning model produces a substantial increase in volatility forecasting performance on days with volatility jumps for 23 NASDAQ stocks from 27 July 2007 to 18 November 2016. A simple ensemble model, combining our word embedding and another machine learning model that uses limit order book data, provides the best forecasting performance for both normal and jump volatility days. Finally, we use Integrated Gradients and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to make the results more 'explainable' and the model comparisons more transparent. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00480&r= |
| By: | Frohm, Erik |
| Abstract: | Tight labour markets are usually accompanied by mounting wage pressures. Yet, in the past decade, wage growth has remained subdued despite the appearance of widespread labour shortages. This paper re-examines labour market conditions since 2007 through the lens of a novel indicator, relative labour shortages (RLS), based on data from a large representative business survey in Sweden. Four main results emerge from the analysis: (1), the time-series average of RLS suggested much weaker labour market conditions during the 2013–2019 recovery from the Great Recession and during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 than qualitative surveys or the vacancy-unemployment ratio. (2), the reason is that RLS contains a time-varying intensive margin of labour shortages not recorded in most surveys, which has been trending downwards since the Great Recession. (3), fixed-effects regressions with several aggregate-, sector, region and establishment-level controls confirm that RLS is strongly and positively correlated with annual wage growth at the establishment level. (4), sector-level wage Phillips curves show that the subdued level of RLS can help explain the sluggish wage growth in Sweden since the Great Recession. JEL Classification: C80, E31, E60, J23, J31 |
| Keywords: | labour markets, survey data, wage inflation |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212576&r= |
| By: | Fischer, Martin (IFN - Research Institute of Industrial Economics); Karlsson, Martin (University of Duisburg-Essen); Prodromidis, Nikolaos (University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the long-term effects on mortality and socio-economic outcomes from institutional delivery. We exploit two Swedish interventions that affected the costs of hospital deliveries and the supply of maternity wards during the 1926–46 period. Using exogenous variation in the supply of maternity wards to instrument the likelihood of institutional delivery, we find that delivery in hospital has substantial effects on later-life outcomes such as education and mortality. We argue that a decrease in child morbidity due to better treatment of complications is a likely mechanism. This interpretation is corroborated by evidence from primary school performance, showing a large reduction in the probability of low performance. In contrast to an immediate and large take-up in hospital deliveries as response to an increase in the supply, we find no increase in hospital births from the abolishment of fees – but some degree of displacement of high-SES parents. |
| Keywords: | institutional delivery, diffusion of innovations, difference-in-discontinuities |
| JEL: | I18 I13 N34 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14562&r= |
| By: | Mathieu Gardrat (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pascal Pluvinet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to present a mesoscopic simulation model of urban freight transport called SIMTURB. This model is based on the results and is an extension of the FRETURB urban freight model [1]. With an architecture based on a Markov process, this model offers a complement and to some extent an alternative to multi-agent simulation models, since it makes possible to characterise precisely the routes of freight transport vehicles in a conurbation and characterise the movements of each agent (e.g. vehicle). |
| Keywords: | Urban freight transport,Model,SIMTURB,Multi-agent simulation,Markov process,Working Papers du LAET |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03284321&r= |
| By: | Jonas Jessen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how culture impacts within-couple gender inequality. Exploiting the setting of Germany's division and reunification, I compare child penalties of couples socialised in a more gender-egalitarian culture (East Germany) to those in a gender-traditional culture (West Germany). Using a household panel, I show that the long-run child penalty on the female income share is 26.9 percentage points in West German couples, compared to 15.5 in East German couples. I additionally show that among women in West Germany the arrival of a child leads to a greater increase in housework and a larger share of child care responsibilities than among women in the East. A battery of robustness checks confirms that differences between East and West socialised couples are not driven by current location, economic factors, day care availability or other smooth regional gradients. I add to the main findings by using time-use diary data from the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and reunified Germany, comparing parents with childless couples of similar age. This provides a rare insight into gender inequality in the GDR and allows to compare the effect of children in the GDR to the effects in East and West Germany after reunification. Lastly, I show that attitudes towards maternal employment are more egalitarian among East Germans, but that the arrival of children leads to more traditional attitudes for both East and West Germans. The findings confirm that socialisation has a strong impact on child penalties and thus on gender inequality as a whole. |
| Keywords: | cultural norms, gender inequality, child penalty |
| JEL: | J16 J22 D1 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1957&r= |
| By: | Jason R. Blevins; Minhae Kim |
| Abstract: | We introduce a sequential estimator for continuous time dynamic discrete choice models (single-agent models and games) by adapting the nested pseudo likelihood (NPL) estimator of Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002, 2007), developed for discrete time models with discrete time data, to the continuous time case with data sampled either discretely (i.e., uniformly-spaced snapshot data) or continuously. We establish conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator, a local convergence condition, and, for single agent models, a zero Jacobian property assuring local convergence. We carry out a series of Monte Carlo experiments using an entry-exit game with five heterogeneous firms to confirm the large-sample properties and demonstrate finite-sample bias reduction via iteration. In our simulations we show that the convergence issues documented for the NPL estimator in discrete time models are less likely to affect comparable continuous-time models. We also show that there can be large bias in economically-relevant parameters, such as the competitive effect and entry cost, from estimating a misspecified discrete time model when in fact the data generating process is a continuous time model. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02182&r= |
| By: | Ruf, Johannes; Wang, Weiguan |
| Abstract: | We study neural networks as nonparametric estimation tools for the hedging of options. To this end, we design a network, named HedgeNet, that directly outputs a hedging strategy. This network is trained to minimize the hedging error instead of the pricing error. Applied to end-of-day and tick prices of S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 options, the network is able to reduce the mean squared hedging error of the Black-Scholes benchmark significantly. However, a similar benefit arises by simple linear regressions that incorporate the leverage effect. |
| Keywords: | benchmarking; Black-Scholes; data Leakage; hedging error; leverage effect; statistical hedging; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | J1 C1 |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107811&r= |
| By: | Tomaz Cajner; John M. Coglianese; Joshua Montes |
| Abstract: | How cyclical is the U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR)? We examine its response to exogenous state-level business cycle shocks, finding that the LFPR is highly cyclical, but with a significantly longer-lived response than the unemployment rate. The LFPR declines after a negative shock for about four years—well beyond when the unemployment rate has begun to recover—and takes about eight years to fully recover after the shock. The decline and recovery of the LFPR is largely driven by individuals with home and family responsibilities, as well as by younger individuals spending time in school. Our main specifications measure cyclicality from the response of the age-adjusted LFPR, and we show that it is problematic to use the unadjusted LFPR when estimating cyclicality because local shocks spur changes in the population of high-LFPR age groups through migration. LFPR cyclicality varies across groups, with larger and longer-lived responses among men, younger workers, less-educated workers, and Black workers. |
| Keywords: | Labor force participation; Labor supply; Labor force composition; Labor force demographics; Full employment; Okun’s law; Geographic mobility; Labor mobility; Regional migration |
| JEL: | E24 J21 J22 J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-47&r= |
| By: | Katerina Ivanov (McColl School of Business, Queens University of Charlotte) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between different forms of credit enhancement and bank contribution to systemic crashes. The findings demonstrate that the overall level of contractual retained interests and guarantees offered to own securitization structures poses a significant threat to financial system stability, although this varies for different types of the underlying assets as well as subordinated structure of interest retention. The amount of credit exposure arising from credit enhancements increases BHCs' contribution to market crashes, while ownership interest in loans and obligations to provide funding do not seem to affect the level of risk BHCs inject into the system. Recourse credit enhancement in mortgage and consumer securitizations is a significant determinant of systemic risks injected by banks into the market with the former one having the strongest economic impact. The implicit credit enhancement in commercial loans tends to decrease systemic risk contribution. The results are not driven by the level of securitization activities, although the economic effect is stronger for large securitizers. The findings have direct implications for the most recent changes in legislation requiring originating banks to retain a material portion of credit risks of securitized loans through retained interests mechanisms. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msb:wpaper:2021-01&r= |
| By: | Polo, Alberto (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | I document three salient features of the transmission of monetary policy shocks: imperfect pass-through to deposit rates, impact on credit spreads, and substitution between deposits and other bank liabilities. I develop a monetary model consistent with these facts, where banks have market power on deposits, a duration-mismatched balance sheet, and a dividend-smoothing motive. Deposit demand has a dynamic component, as in the literature on customer markets. A financial friction makes non-deposit funding supply imperfectly elastic. The model indicates that imperfect pass-through to deposit rates is an important source of amplification of monetary policy shocks. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy transmission; deposit rates; banks; market power |
| JEL: | E43 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0933&r= |
| By: | Papp, Gábor; Kondor, Imre; Caccioli, Fabio |
| Abstract: | Expected Shortfall (ES), the average loss above a high quantile, is the current financial regulatory market risk measure. Its estimation and optimization are highly unstable against sample fluctuations and become impossible above a critical ratio r = N/T, where N is the number of different assets in the portfolio, and T is the length of the available time series. The critical ratio depends on the confidence level a, which means we have a line of critical points on the α-r plane. The large fluctuations in the estimation of ES can be attenuated by the application of regularizers. In this paper, we calculate ES analytically under an `1 regularizer by the method of replicas borrowed from the statistical physics of random systems. The ban on short selling, i.e., a constraint rendering all the portfolio weights nonnegative, is a special case of an asymmetric Ɩ1 regularizer. Results are presented for the out-of-sample and the in-sample estimator of the regularized ES, the estimation error, the distribution of the optimal portfolio weights, and the density of the assets eliminated from the portfolio by the regularizer. It is shown that the no-short constraint acts as a high volatility cutoff, in the sense that it sets the weights of the high volatility elements to zero with higher probability than those of the low volatility items. This cutoff renormalizes the aspect ratio r = N/T, thereby extending the range of the feasibility of optimization. We find that there is a nontrivial mapping between the regularized and unregularized problems, corresponding to a renormalization of the order parameters. Expected Shortfall (ES), the average loss above a high quantile, is the current financial regulatory market risk measure. Its estimation and optimization are highly unstable against sample fluctuations and become impossible above a critical ratio r = N/T, where N is the number of different assets in the portfolio, and T is the length of the available time series. The critical ratio depends on the confidence level a, which means we have a line of critical points on the a-r plane. The large fluctuations in the estimation of ES can be attenuated by the application of regularizers. In this paper, we calculate ES analytically under an `1 regularizer by the method of replicas borrowed from the statistical physics of random systems. The ban on short selling, i.e., a constraint rendering all the portfolio weights nonnegative, is a special case of an asymmetric Ɩ1 regularizer. Results are presented for the out-of-sample and the in-sample estimator of the regularized ES, the estimation error, the distribution of the optimal portfolio weights, and the density of the assets eliminated from the portfolio by the regularizer. It is shown that the no-short constraint acts as a high volatility cutoff, in the sense that it sets the weights of the high volatility elements to zero with higher probability than those of the low volatility items. This cutoff renormalizes the aspect ratio r = N/T, thereby extending the range of the feasibility of optimization. We find that there is a nontrivial mapping between the regularized and unregularized problems, corresponding to a renormalization of the order parameters. |
| Keywords: | portfolio optimization; regularization; renormalization |
| JEL: | F3 G3 J1 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111051&r= |
| By: | Kurani, Kenneth S; Buch, Koral |
| Abstract: | The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) will rely, ultimately, on the participation of all vehicle buyers. While nearly equal numbers of new vehicles are purchased by men and women, to date EVs are being acquired by far more men than women. Prior analysis of data from California at the end of 2014 found no difference between women and men in prospective interest in EVs; similar percentages were interested in an EV being the next new vehicle for their household. Yet today—years after these results were reported—the gender disparity in EV sales and registrations persists. Researchers at the University of California, Davis examined whether the gender similarities in prospective interest in EVs witnessed in California extended to other states that, while generally supportive of California’s EV goals and signatories to many of California’s air quality standards had less supportive policy frameworks, fewer EV sales, and less EV charging infrastructure in 2014. The researchers re-analyzed the same late-2014 data from Oregon, Washington, and the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM). This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicle, zero emission vehicle, gender, sex, policy, market |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt18q5f0ns&r= |
| By: | Claire Chambolle (ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Hugo Molina (ALISS - Alimentation et sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We develop a unified theory of exclusive dealing and exclusionary bundling. In a framework with two competing manufacturers which supply their product(s) through a monopolist retailer, we show that buyer power restores the profitability of such practices involving inefficient exclusion. The mechanism underlying this exclusion is that the compensation required by the retailer to renounce selling the rival product erodes with its buyer power. Among others, we further show that our theory holds when the buyer power differs across manufacturers or when the retailer can strategically narrow (or expand) its product assortment. |
| Keywords: | Vertical relations,Buyer power,Exclusive dealing,Exclusionary Bundling,Nash-in-Nash bargaining with Threat of Replacement |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03231803&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Eschenbaum (University of St. Gallen); Helge Liebert (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies reputation in the online market for illegal drugs in which no legal institutions exist to alleviate uncertainty. Trade takes place on platforms that offer rating systems for sellers, thereby providing an observable measure of reputation. The analysis exploits the fact that one of the two dominant platforms unexpectedly disappeared. Re-entering sellers reset their rating. The results show that on average prices decreased by up to 9% and that a 1% increase in rating causes a price increase of 1%. Ratings and prices recover after about three months. We calculate that identified good types earn 1,650 USD more per week. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11314&r= |
| By: | Wenyuan Wang; Xiang Yu; Xiaowen Zhou |
| Abstract: | Motivated by recent developments in risk management based on the U.S. bankruptcy code, we revisit De Finetti optimal dividend problems by incorporating the reorganization process and regulator's intervention documented in Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The resulting surplus process, bearing financial stress towards the more subtle concept of bankruptcy, corresponds to non-standard spectrally negative Levy processes with endogenous regime switching. In both models without and with fixed transaction costs, some explicit expressions of the expected net present values under a barrier strategy, new to the literature, are established in terms of scale functions. With the help of these expressions, when the tail of the Levy measure is log-convex, the optimal dividend control in each problem is verified to be of the barrier type and the associated optimal barrier can be obtained in analytical form. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01800&r= |
| By: | Carlos F. Avenancio-León; Leslie Sheng Shen |
| Abstract: | We propose an "asset channel of inequality" that contributes to gender inequities. We establish that industries with low (high) gender pay gaps have high (low) shares of tangible assets. Because asset tangibility determines firms' ability to collateralize assets and borrow, credit conditions affect industries differently. We show that credit expansions further reduce the pay gap in low-pay-gap industries while leaving it unaffected in high-pay-gap industries, making low-pay-gap industries more appealing for women. Consequently, gender sorting across industries increases, which then cements gender roles and accentuates workplace gender bias. Ultimately, credit expansions help women "swim upstream" but also reinforce glass ceilings. |
| Keywords: | Gender Pay Gap; Credit Markets; Asset Tangibility; Equitable Finance |
| JEL: | J71 O16 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1322&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Despite having legal and institutional frameworks largely in place, Moldova continues to suffer from significant corruption and governance vulnerabilities. These are fairly pronounced in the areas of rule of law, anti-corruption, anti-money laundering and combatting the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT), and SOE governance, while other areas assessed for purposes of this report (PFM, tax administration, central bank governance and financial sector oversight) presented some good progress in mitigating such vulnerabilities. |
| Date: | 2021–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/167&r= |
| By: | Martin Biewen; Miriam Sturm |
| Abstract: | After an economically tough start into the new millennium, Germany experienced an unprecedented employment boom after 2005 only stopped by the COVID-19 pandemic. Persistently high levels of inequality despite a booming labour market and drastically falling unemployment rates constituted a puzzle, suggesting either that the German job miracle mainly benefitted individuals in the mid- or high-income range or that other developments offset the effects of the drastically improved labour market conditions. The present paper solves this puzzle by breaking down the observed changes in the distribution of disposable incomes between 2005/06 and 2015/16 into the contributions of eight different factors, one of them being the employment boom. Our results suggest that, while the latter did have an equalising impact, it was partially offseet by the disequalising impact of other factors and substantially dampened by the tax and transfer system. Our results point to a strong role of the German tax and transfer system as a distributional stabilizer implying that, if the COVID-19 shock were to persistently reverse all the employment gains that occurred during the boom, this would only have a moderately disequalising effect on the distribution of net incomes. |
| Keywords: | income distribution, employment, social insurance, labour market reform |
| JEL: | C14 D31 I30 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1139&r= |
| By: | Yizhou Jin; Shoshana Vasserman |
| Abstract: | New technologies have enabled firms to elicit granular behavioral data from consumers in exchange for lower prices and better experiences. This data can mitigate asymmetric information and moral hazard, but it may also increase firms’ market power if kept proprietary. We study a voluntary monitoring program by a major U.S. auto insurer, in which drivers accept short-term tracking in exchange for potential discounts on future premiums. Using a proprietary dataset matched with competitor price menus, we document that safer drivers self-select into monitoring, and those who opt in become yet 30% safer while monitored. Using an equilibrium model of consumer choice and firm pricing for insurance and monitoring, we find that the monitoring program generates large profit and welfare gains. However, large demand frictions hurt monitoring adoption, forcing the firm to offer large discounts to induce opt-in while preventing the unmonitored pool from unraveling given the competitive environment. A counterfactual policy requiring the firm to make monitoring data public would thus further reduce the firm’s incentive to elicit monitoring data, leading to less monitoring and lower consumer welfare in equilibrium. |
| JEL: | L0 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29096&r= |
| By: | Alessandro Cigno |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature concerning the evolution of cultural traits in general and preferences in particular, and the emergence and persistence of rules or norms, from a family per- spective. In models where each person is e¤ectively the clone of an existing one (either a parent or anyone else), there may be evolution only in the demographic sense that the share of the population who hold a certain trait increases or decreases. Evo- lution in the strict sense of new traits making their appearance occurs in models where the trait characterizing any given mem- ber of any given generation is a combination of traits drawn at random from those represented in the previous generation. Pref- erences may be altruistic or non-altruistic, but individuals may behave as if they were altruistic even if they are not, because a rule or norm may make it in their interest to do so. Evolutionary stability and renegotiation proofness play analogous roles, the former by selecting altruistic preferences, and the latter by se- lecting cooperation-inducing rules. The existence of population groups recognizable by outward characteristics like ethnicity or religious practice may convey useful information regarding im- perfectly observable traits of direct interest to individuals, but it may also lead individuals to judge others by their group member- ship rather than by their unobservable individual qualities, and thus to see them as possible foes. |
| Keywords: | Evolution, preferences, rules, socialization, matching, hold-up problem |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wchild:92&r= |
| By: | Belzil, Christian (Ecole Polytechnique, Paris); Pernaudet, Julie (University of Chicago); Poinas, François (Toulouse School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Imagine the situation in which an econometrician can infer the distribution of welfare gains induced by the provision of higher education financial aid using survey data obtained from a set of individuals, and can estimate the same distribution using a highly incentivized field experiment in which the same set of individuals participated. In the experimental setting relying on incentivized choices, making the wrong decision can be costly. In the survey, the stakes are null and reporting false intentions and expectations is costless. In this paper, we evaluate the extent to which the decomposition of the two welfare gain distributions into latent factors are coherent. We find that individuals often put a much different weight to a specific set of determinants in the experiment and in the survey and that the valuations of financial aid are rank incoherent. About 66% of Biased Incoherency (defined as the tendency to have a higher valuation rank in the experiment than in the survey) is explained by individual heterogeneity in subjective benefits, costs and other factors and about half of these factors affect the welfare gains of financial aid in the survey and in the experiment in opposite directions. Ex-ante policy evaluation of a potential expansion of the Canadian higher education financial aid system may therefore depend heavily on whether or not the data have been obtained in an "incentivized" context. |
| Keywords: | field experiment, survey data, coherency, incentives |
| JEL: | I2 C91 C93 D12 D9 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14594&r= |
| By: | Christl, Michael; De Poli, Silvia; Ivaškaitė-Tamošiūnė, Viginta |
| Abstract: | We analyse the different fiscal treatment of married and cohabiting couples across all EU Member States using microsimulation methods. Our paper highlights important differences across EU countries' tax-benefit systems, where seven countries show substantial bonuses for married couples and four exhibit marriage penalties. On a micro level, we find that these marriage bonuses/penalties differ substantially across household types and income. From a policy point of view, our results suggest that the abolishment of marriage-related tax-benefit components in countries with marriage bonuses would leave some households financially worse off but would increase governments revenues that could be spent to targeted support of specific groups. From both an equity and a gender equality point of view, this abolishment would be desirable. |
| Keywords: | marriage,cohabitation,marriage penalty,inequality,tax-benefit systems,Europe |
| JEL: | H31 J12 J18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:906&r= |
| By: | Léonore Raguideau-Hannotin (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UPN - Université Paris Nanterre) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the monetary autonomy of Central Eastern and South Eastern European countries with the Euro area. These countries are European Union Member States that have not adopted yet the Euro single currency. Despite high degree of convergence as measured by Maastricht criteria, four of them do no plan to enter the Euro area soon. We therefore assess monetary autonomy of these countries over the long run through the use of a multivariate cointegration methodology with structural breaks (Johansen et al., 2000). This methodology allows us to capture the multidimensional aspects of monetary autonomy in the context of nominal convergence in the Economic and Monetary Union, by including both domestic and Euro area variables into the system (policy rates, inflation rates, exchange rate). It also enables us to exploit all information contained in the macroeconomic series of these countries, for which broken economic history translates into non-stationary time series with breaks. Our empirical results suggest that modelling structural breaks changes the number and/or nature of cointegrating relations between our variables compared to the standard error correction model without breaks. With this modelling, we fi nd monetary policy spillover from the Euro area to Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania. The inclusion of Euro area inflation to our baseline model enriches the cointegrating relations for the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. Poland is found to be the most monetary-independent country of our study across the various models estimated. On the other hand, Romania's monetary interdependence with Euro area is better modelled without taking into account any structural break. |
| Abstract: | La motivation de ce papier est de comprendre les interdépendances existant entre les politiques monétaires conventionnelles menées par les pays CESEE membres de l'Union Européenne et par la zone Euro. Elles sont théoriquement renforcées par la convergence nominale à l'œuvre dans ces pays (et telle que mesurée par certains critères de Maastricht) et les trilemme et dilemme de politique monétaire. Pour autant, les pays CESEE en régime de change flottant ne sont pas candidats à l'adhésion au Mécanisme de Change Européen II, dernier stade du processus d'adhésion à l'Euro. La question de recherche posée se rapporte ainsi au degré d'autonomie des politiques monétaires domestiques par rapport à la zone Euro. La principale contribution de ce papier est de proposer une analyse de cointégration multivariée par pays des variables de politique monétaire domestique (augmentées des variables monétaires de la zone Euro et du taux de change), robuste aux ruptures structurelles caractéristiques des séries macroéconomiques de ces économie en transition. Nos résultats confirment la pertinence de cette modélisation à ruptures pour la Bulgarie, la Hongrie et la République Tchèque. Le degré de dépendance monétaire est lié aux régimes de change, sans que cela soit vérifié pour la Croatie. La Pologne est le pays le plus autonome monétairement sur longue période et l'interdépendance entre la Roumanie et la zone Euro est mieux modélisée sans prendre en compte de rupture structurelle. |
| Keywords: | CESEE countries,Economic and Monetary Union,European Union,Nominal convergence,Monetary autonomy,Structural breaks,Cointegration,EMU,EU |
| Date: | 2021–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03279499&r= |
| By: | Giacomo Calzolari; Leonardo Felli; Johannes Koenen; Giancarlo Spagnolo; Konrad O. Stahl |
| Abstract: | We study how informal buyer-supplier relationships in the German automotive industry affect procurement. Using unique data from a survey focusing on these, we show that more trust, the belief that the trading partner acts to maintain the mutual relationship, is associated with both higher quality of the automotive parts and more competition among suppliers. Yet both effects hold only for parts involving unsophisticated technology, not when technology is sophisticated. We rationalize these findings within a relational contracting model that critically focuses on changes in the bargaining power, due to differences in the costs of switching suppliers. |
| Keywords: | Relational Contracts, Hold-up, Buyer-Supplier Contracts, Bargaining Power |
| JEL: | D86 L14 L62 O34 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_316&r= |
| By: | USHIJIMA Tatsuo |
| Abstract: | Diversified firms differ considerably in the efficiency of their internal capital markets (ICMs), through which scarce capital is allocated across alternative growth opportunities. This study highlights the role of firm age in generating this heterogeneity. Consistent with the hypothesis that organizational aging increases the rigidity of capital allocation, our analysis of Japanese firms identifies a strong inverse association between ICM efficiency and firm age. This correlation is robust to controlling for covariates suggested by alternative explanations such as agency problems and the individual aging of managers. Moreover, the correlation is substantially weakened when a firm is drastically reorganized. These results suggest that the liability of aging (age-based organizational rigidity) significantly affects intrafirm resource mobility, which is crucial for a firm's ability to respond to external changes. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21065&r= |
| By: | Yifei Wang (Utrecht University); Andrea Ascani (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Carolina Castaldi (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | We model the impact of public housing supply on local development by using a spatial equilibrium model with a “share-altering†technological shift from agriculture to manufacturing. The model shows that a larger local availability of houses triggers greater population growth and, consequently, industrialization. It also suggests that these effects are stronger in places that exhibited, prior to the public housing plan, relatively higher population density. These implications are broadly confirmed by an empirical evaluation of the INA-Casa plan, a program implemented by the Italian government in the aftermath of WWII. |
| Keywords: | industry agglomeration, country-of-origin, agglomeration, multinational enterprises, foreign direct investment, China |
| JEL: | F23 L20 R30 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp21&r= |
| By: | Yunze Li; Yanan Xie; Chen Yu; Fangxing Yu; Bo Jiang; Matloob Khushi |
| Abstract: | Forex trading is the largest market in terms of qutantitative trading. Traditionally, traders refer to technical analysis based on the historical data to make decisions and trade. With the development of artificial intelligent, deep learning plays a more and more important role in forex forecasting. How to use deep learning models to predict future price is the primary purpose of most researchers. Such prediction not only helps investors and traders make decisions, but also can be used for auto-trading system. In this article, we have proposed a novel approach of feature selection called 'feature importance recap' which combines the feature importance score from tree-based model with the performance of deep learning model. A stacking model is also developed to further improve the performance. Our results shows that proper feature selection approach could significantly improve the model performance, and for financial data, some features have high importance score in many models. The results of stacking model indicate that combining the predictions of some models and feed into a neural network can further improve the performance. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14092&r= |
| By: | Oliver, Adam |
| Abstract: | The principal objective of the liberal economic tradition is to encourage mutually advantageous actions between individuals, and the best means by which to do this, according to those who follow this tradition, is a demand-led competitive market. This article summaries the propositions of the liberal economic tradition and concludes that while its components ought to be tolerated over private decision-making in order to protect individual autonomy, the demand-led competitive market provides incentives for egoistic actions that may harm groups, and by extension, the individuals within those groups. As such, it is argued that it is not sensible to introduce or maintain a demand-led competitive market in public sector services because it may undermine the pursuit of broadly agreed-upon collective goals in these sectors. The article finishes with a discussion of some alternative public sector policy mechanisms that may better serve the aim of crowding in cooperative actions and behaviours. |
| Keywords: | competition; cooperation; egoism; governance; liberalism; reciprocity |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103060&r= |
| By: | Moritz Breul; Fabio Pruß; |
| Abstract: | Hitherto, the path-dependent understanding of regional diversification in Evolutionary Economic Geography (EEG) has drawn largely on insights into industrialized countries. However, in the past few decades several regions in the Global South have undergone rapid structural transformations despite starting out with unfavourable regional asset bases. This raises the question as to whether the strong emphasis on endogenous capabilities in EEG also provides a sound theoretical framework for explaining these tremendous diversification dynamics. This paper therefore aims to re-evaluate the wider validity of the path-dependent conceptualization of regional diversification in the context of a lower-middle income economy. To this end, we analyse the diversification of Vietnamese regions between 2006 and 2015. In order to take into account context-specific conditions that characterize Vietnam’s economy, we add the role of foreign-owned firms and state-owned enterprises to the conceptualization of regional diversification processes. While the role of relatedness holds true for Vietnam, the presence of foreign- owned firms allowed Vietnamese regions to break away from path dependency and diversify to unrelated industries. The findings highlight that only by adapting the analysis to context-specific conditions are we able to understand how regional diversification takes place across different settings. |
| Keywords: | Regional diversification, relatedness, Evolutionary Economic Geography, path creation, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2124&r= |
| By: | Jonathan F. Cogliano; Roberto Veneziani; Naoki Yoshihara |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theoretical and computational framework to analyse imperialistic international relations and the dynamics of international exploitation. A new measure of unequal exchange across borders -- an exploitation intensity index -- is proposed which can be used to characterise the structure of imperialistic international relations in the current global economy. It is shown that wealthy nations are net lenders and exploiters, whereas endowment-poor countries are net borrowers and suffer from exploitation. Capital flows transfer surplus from countries in the core of the global economy to those in the periphery. However, while international credit markets and wealth inequalities are sufficient to generate unequal exchange, they are proved to be insufficient for it to persist. Various possible factors are considered, including technical change and varying social norms, that may explain the persistence of international inequalities. |
| Keywords: | international exploitation; imperialism; capital movements; technical change |
| JEL: | B51 D63 C63 F21 F54 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mab:wpaper:2021-02&r= |
| By: | Lali Osepashvili (Art History Shota Rustaveli Theatre and Film Georgian State University, Georgia) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to present a well-known Italian artist Ludwig Longo, who was once really active in Tbilisi, to the public life. Unfortunately, he has gradually been forgotten but he left precious heritage. According to this purpose the author of this article, considered to reconstruct Tbilisi passages of Longo’s biography in order to make a famous this painter for modern Georgian and Italian arts historians. Main materials were found by the Fund of New Georgian Art Department of Art Museum, newspaper materials, etc. As a result of this research revealed that L. Longo was deep involved in and have obtained his place in Tbilisi. He mainly was painting portraits, as well he had covered with drawings Tbilisi Saint Trinity Church and Al. Nevelly Military Temple or "Soboro" as it was called. |
| Keywords: | Ludwig Longo, Italian Painter; Georgia; Georgian Art |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01250&r= |
| By: | Julia Eisenberg; Stefan Kremsner; Alexander Steinicke |
| Abstract: | We investigate a dividend maximization problem under stochastic interest rates with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics. This setup also takes negative rates into account. First a deterministic time is considered, where an explicit separating curve $\alpha(t)$ can be found to determine the optimal strategy at time $t$. In a second setting we introduce a strategy-independent stopping time. The properties and behavior of these optimal control problems in both settings are analyzed in an analytical HJB-driven approach as well as using backward stochastic differential equations. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00234&r= |
| By: | Jorge C. Ávila |
| Abstract: | Se especula a menudo que si Argentina eliminara su déficit fiscal, la dolarización oficial de la economía sería innecesaria. En la nota discutimos la validez de dicha especulación para una economía bimonetaria. Concluimos que mientras más avanzada sea la dolarización de facto, mayor será la elasticidad de la demanda de dinero y la velocidad de ajuste del nivel de precios. Estos cambios estructurales afectan el funcionamiento del mercado de dinero y magnifican la capacidad de desestabilización de los shocks monetarios. / It´s often argued that if Argentina wiped out its fiscal deficit, official dollarization would not be needed. We discuss the validity of such an argument for a two-currency economy. We conclude that the more advanced the process of currency substitution, the greater the elasticity of the demand for money and the velocity of adjustment of the price level. These structural changes modify the way the money market works and magnify the destabilizing power of monetary shocks. |
| JEL: | E31 E41 E42 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:804&r= |
| By: | Ruhnau, Oliver; Qvist, Staffan |
| Abstract: | In the context of 100% renewable electricity systems, prolonged periods with persistently scarce supply from wind and solar resources have received increasing academic and political attention. This article explores how such scarcity periods relate to energy storage requirements. To this end, we contrast results from a time series analysis with those from a system cost optimization model, based on a German 100% renewable case study using 35 years of hourly time series data. While our time series analysis supports previous findings that periods with persistently scarce supply last no longer than two weeks, we find that the maximum energy deficit occurs over a much longer period of nine weeks. This is because multiple scarce periods can closely follow each other. When considering storage losses and charging limitations, the period defining storage requirements extends over as much as 12 weeks. For this longer period, the cost-optimal storage capacity is about three times larger compared to the energy deficit of the scarcest two weeks. Adding other sources of flexibility for the example of bioenergy, the duration of period that defines storage requirements lengthens to more than one year. When optimizing system costs based on single years rather than a multi-year time series, we find substantial inter-annual variation in storage requirements with the most extreme year needing more than twice as much storage as the average year. We conclude that focusing on short-duration extreme events or single years can lead to an underestimation of storage requirements and costs of a 100 % renewable system. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy,Wind and solar power,Inter-annual variability,Low-wind events,Dunkelflaute,Electricity system,Energy storage,Hydrogen,Batteries |
| JEL: | Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:236723&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp15&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp03&r= |
| By: | Majed Dodin; Sebastian Findeisen; Lukas Henkel; Dominik Sachs; Paul Schüle |
| Abstract: | We characterize intergenerational mobility in Germany using census data on educational attainment and parental income for 526,000 children. Our measure of educational attainment is the A-Level degree, a requirement for access to university. A 10 percentile increase in the parental income rank is associated with a 5.2 percentage point increase in the A-Level share. This parental income gradient has not changed for the birth cohorts of 1980-1996, despite a large-scale policy of expanding upper secondary education. At the regional level, there exists substantial variation in mobility estimates. Place effects, rather than sorting of households, account for most of these differences. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, educational attainment, local labor markets |
| JEL: | I24 J62 R23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9200&r= |
| By: | Shuowen Chen; Yang Ming |
| Abstract: | What causes countercyclicality of industry--level productivity dispersion in the U.S.? Empirically, we construct an index of negative profit shocks and show that both productivity dispersion and R&D intensity dispersion enlarge at the onset of the shock and gradually dissipate. Theoretically, we build a duopolistic technology--ladder model in which heterogeneous R&D costs determine firms' post--shock optimal behaviors and equilibrium technology gap. Quantitatively, we calibrate a parameterized model, simulate firms' post--shock responses and predict that productivity dispersion is due to the low--cost firm increasing R&D efforts and the high--cost firm doing the opposite. We provide two empirical tests for this mechanism. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02272&r= |
| By: | Gianluca Benigno; Luca Fornaro; Michael Wolf |
| Abstract: | We present a model that reproduces two salient facts characterizing the international monetary system: Fast growing emerging countries i) run current account surpluses, ii) accumulate international reserves and receive net private in flows. We study a two-sector, tradable and nontradable, small open economy. There is a growth externality in the tradable sector and agents have imperfect access to international financial markets. By accumulating foreign reserves, the government induces a real exchange rate depreciation and a reallocation of production towards the tradable sector that boosts growth. Financial frictions generate imperfect substitutability between private and public debt flows so that private agents do not perfectly offset the government policy. The possibility of using reserves to provide liquidity during crises amplifies the positive impact of reserve accumulation on growth. The optimal reserve management en- tails a fast rate of reserve accumulation, as well as higher growth and larger current account surpluses compared to the economy with no policy intervention. The model is also consistent with the negative relationship between in flows of foreign aid and growth observed in low income countries. |
| Keywords: | foreign reserve accumulation, gross capital flows, growth, financial crises, allocation, puzzle, exchange rate undervaluation |
| JEL: | F31 F32 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1279&r= |
| By: | Goundan, Anatole; Faye, Amy; Henning, Christian H. C. A.; Collins-Sowah, Peron A. |
| Abstract: | While the productivity effects of the application of modern inputs, such as im- proved seeds or inorganic fertilizer, are well known, farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa tended to underinvest in purchased inputs. This underinvestment appears related to the unpredictable nature of agricultural production that is subject to risks and shocks. Farmers make production decisions before climatic and other shocks are realized. They, therefore, have no certainty about the outcome of their decisions. This makes investments in agricultural inputs very risky. This paper uses recent data for Senegal to identify the main drivers of the decision to purchase risky inputs (seeds and/or fertilizers), the level of investment and to quantify the impact of the use of risky inputs on household welfare. Using a Heck- man model, results show that the main drivers of the decision to purchase risky inputs include household composition, farmer organization, farm size, access to livestock income, and crop diversification. Drivers of the level of investment in risky inputs are gender, extension services, farm size, agricultural capital, and cropping patterns. Using an endogenous switching regression, we find a positive impact on the adoption of risky inputs on farm profit per hectare, and food available from production. The expected impact for non-adopters is found to be higher than that for adopters because they are involved in rice production (which is more responsive to inputs use) and in millet production (which is central for food security). |
| Keywords: | Risky inputs,purchased fertilizers,purchased seeds,household welfare,Senegal |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202007&r= |
| By: | Stjepan Srhoj; Dejan Kovac; Jacob Shapiro; Randall Filer |
| Abstract: | Bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in such procedures impact the economic performance of participating firms in the context of Croatia, which introduced a "pre-bankruptcy settlement" (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009. Local institutions left over from the communist era provide annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtor-creditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delays entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, leads to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as reduced employment, revenue, and profits. We also track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small creditors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms' future prospects. |
| Keywords: | bankruptcy, insolvency, liquidation, restructuring |
| JEL: | G33 G34 D02 L38 P37 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2021-23&r= |
| By: | Enghin Atalay; Sebastian Sotelo; Daniel Tannenbaum |
| Abstract: | The returns to skills and the nature of work differ systematically across labor markets of different sizes. Prior research has pointed to worker interactions, technological innovation, and specialization as key sources of urban productivity gains, but has been limited by the available data in its ability to fully characterize work across geographies. We study the sources of geographic inequality and present new facts about the geography of work using online job ads. We show that the (i) intensity of interactive and analytic tasks, (ii) technological requirements, and (iii) task specialization all increase with city size. The gradient for tasks and technologies exists both across and within occupations. It is also steeper for jobs requiring a college degree and for workers employed in non-tradable industries. We document that our new measures help account for a substantial portion of the urban wage premium, both in aggregate and across occupation groups. |
| JEL: | J20 J24 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:92952&r= |
| By: | Marie Connolly; Marc-Antoine Dionne; Catherine Haeck |
| Abstract: | This report provides an estimate of the changing workforce in the health and education sectors based on administrative data. Using data from Statistics Canada's Longitudinal Education-Labour Market Linkage Platform, we track the labour market for post-secondary graduates in teaching and nursing, two occupations that are currently experiencing recruitment challenges. We present figures on the number of graduates by year for cohorts graduating from 2010 to 2016, as well as their retention rate in the province of graduation. We also present median residency and income pathways. This report focuses on Quebec, but we also present figures for Ontario for comparison. Our results suggest that few Quebec graduates choose to move outside of the Belle Province: less than 5% of graduates since 2010 make this choice. Thus, our retention power is much greater than that of Ontario, which has a much higher attrition rate. Using data from the 2016 Canadian Census of Population, we also calculate retention in the profession by age. Our results suggest that retention in both nursing and education has been relatively stable for almost 25 years. Contrary to the media message, there does not appear to be any greater or lesser difficulty in retaining new faculty in the profession. It appears that there has always been some attrition rate of about 25%. Finally, we are also relaying figures on demographic projections from the Institut de la statistique du Québec. The figures provided in this report can be used as a basis for future simulation work. We conclude with a brief review of some of the initiatives used in other countries to increase enrolment in education. Ce rapport fournit une estimation de l’évolution des effectifs dans les secteurs de la santé et de l’éducation à partir de données administratives. En se basant sur les données de la Plateforme de liens longitudinaux entre l’éducation et le marché du travail de Statistique Canada, nous suivons sur le marché du travail les diplômés postsecondaires en enseignement et en sciences infirmières, deux professions qui connaissent des difficultés de recrutement à l’heure actuelle. Nous présentons des chiffres sur le nombre de diplômés par année pour les cohortes ayant obtenu leur diplôme de 2010 à 2016, ainsi que sur leur taux de rétention dans la province d’obtention du diplôme. Nous présentons également des parcours de résidence et de revenus médians. Ce rapport s’intéresse au cas du Québec, mais nous présentons également les chiffres portant sur l’Ontario, pour fins de comparaison. Nos résultats suggèrent que peu de diplômés du Québec choisissent de s’établir en dehors de la Belle Province : moins de 5 % des diplômés depuis 2010 font ce choix. Ainsi, notre pouvoir de rétention est nettement plus grand que l’Ontario, qui enregistre des départs beaucoup plus importants. Grâce aux données du Recensement canadien de la population de 2016, nous calculons également la rétention dans la profession selon l’âge. Nos résultats suggèrent que le taux de rétention, tant en enseignement qu’en sciences infirmières, est relativement stable depuis près de 25 ans. Contrairement au message véhiculé dans les médias, il ne semble pas qu’on ait plus ou moins de difficulté à retenir les nouveaux enseignants dans la profession. Il semble qu’il y ait toujours eu un certain taux d’attrition avoisinant les 25 %. Finalement, nous relayons également des chiffres sur les projections démographiques de l’Institut de la statistique du Québec. Les chiffres fournis dans ce rapport pourront servir de base à de futurs travaux de simulation. Nous concluons en présentant une brève revue de certaines initiatives utilisées dans d’autres pays pour rehausser les effectifs en enseignement. |
| Keywords: | enrolment,teachers,nursing,nurses,geographic retention,earnings trajectories,retention in the profession,population projections,Quebec,Ontario, Effectifs,enseignement,enseignantes et enseignants,sciences infirmières,infirmières et infirmiers,rétention géographique,parcours de revenus,rétention dans la profession,projections démographiques,Québec,Ontario |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J45 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2021rp-16&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a fragile state and vulnerable to recurrent shocks. Relations with the Fund have been quite active since early 2019, with a Staff Monitored Program (SMP) coupled with a Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement in December 2019 and a second RCF disbursement in April 2020 to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. Economic activity decelerated sharply in 2020 because of the crisis and reserves decreased to less than two weeks of imports. President Tshisekedi requested a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement to support his medium-term reform program. |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/168&r= |
| By: | Kevin Bauer; Michael Kosfeld; Ferdinand von Siemens |
| Abstract: | We study, theoretically and empirically, the effects of incentives on the self-selection and coordination of motivated agents to produce a social good. Agents join teams where they allocate effort to either generate individual monetary rewards (selfish effort) or contribute to the production of a social good with positive effort complementarities (social effort). Agents differ in their motivation to exert social effort. Our model predicts that lowering incentives for selfish effort in one team increases social good production by selectively attracting and coordinating motivated agents. We test this prediction in a lab experiment allowing us to cleanly separate the selection effect from other effects of low incentives. Results show that social good production more than doubles in the low-incentive team, but only if self-selection is possible. Our analysis highlights the important role of incentives in the matching of motivated agents engaged in social good production. |
| Keywords: | incentives, intrinsic motivation, self-selection, public service |
| JEL: | C91 D90 J24 J31 M52 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9207&r= |
| By: | Tilson, David; Sørensen, Carsten; Lyytinen, Kalle J. |
| Abstract: | The exponential growth of digital technologies and their increased importance in both organizational and everyday life poses new challenges to paradox research within management studies. Management scholars taking a paradoxical lens have predominantly focused on social paradoxes within the confines of the organization. Technological change has often been treated as an exogenous force bringing previously latent tensions to the fore. Such newly salient paradoxes are viewed as instigating managerial sensemaking and exploration of strategic responses that will re-establish equilibrium. Our investigation of how digital innovations disrupted London taxiwork and global music distribution shows something different. The paradoxical tensions raised by emerging digital technologies inevitably play out at industry and societal levels. Concomitant changes in boundaries, categories, and potentials for action that shape and channel ongoing industry transformation call for organizational responses and adaptation. Critically, such tensions must be interpreted within the context of industry arrangements absent a centrally controlling actor. Rather than episodes of exogenous change, the nature of the digital, along with interactions across multiple sources of agency, continually surface complex dynamic and systemic tensions within and across industries. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for the inter-relatedness and mutual dependence of the social and technical elements of change. As digital innovation expands and starts to impact all aspects of human experience it is critical for management scholars to reflect how the paradoxical perspective can be expanded to better understand these contemporary large-scale changes. |
| Keywords: | paradox; digital; industry disruption; taxi service; music industry; institution |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:106676&r= |
| By: | Michelacakis, Nickolas |
| Abstract: | We consider a mixed ownership duopoly delegation model with spatial price discrimination and constant, albeit different, marginal production costs. In contrast to what holds true for a private duopoly, the Nash equilibrium, absent delegation, for a mixed duopoly with discriminatory pricing according to location is both consistent and socially optimal. We find that under Nash conjectures, in most cases, firm owners have a strong incentive to delegate location decisions to managers. In such cases, firms locate closer to each other. The intensity of the competition leads to lower prices, lower profits, for both firms, and increased surplus for the consumer. |
| Keywords: | mixed duopoly; delegation; spatial competition; consistent conjectures; Nash equilibrium |
| JEL: | D43 L13 L21 L22 R32 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109011&r= |
| By: | Davi B. Costa |
| Abstract: | We propose and investigate a model for dating and marriage in large societies based on a stochastic matching process and simple decision rules. Agents have preferences among themselves given by some probability distribution. They randomly search for better mates, forming new couples and breaking apart in the process. Marriage is implemented in the model by adding the decision of stopping searching for a better mate when an agent finds another one with an affinity higher than a certain fixed amount. We show that the average utility in the system with marriage can be higher than in the system without it. Part of our results can be summarized in what sounds like a piece of advice: don't marry the first person you like and don't search for the love of your life, but get married if you like your partner more than a sigma above average. We also compare the evolution of the fraction of married couples in our model with real data and obtain good agreement. In the last section, we formulate the model in the limit of an infinite number of agents and find an analytical expression for the evolution of the system. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.04885&r= |
| By: | Gaëlle Capitaine,; Frédéric Ahado. |
| Abstract: | Le taux de revalorisation moyen des fonds euros des contrats individuels (y compris groupes ouverts) attribué par les organismes d’assurance aux polices d’assurance-vie et aux bons de capitalisation est en baisse de 18 points de base à 1,28% en 2020 contre 1,46% en 2019 (net de prélèvements sur encours et avant prélèvements sociaux). La baisse du taux de revalorisation s’inscrit dans le contexte de diminution des revenus financiers des assureurs, directement lié à la persistance du niveau très bas des taux d’intérêt depuis plusieurs années. Cette baisse du taux de revalorisation permet d’accroître la provision pour participation aux bénéfices qui atteint désormais 5,1% des provisions d’assurance-vie (contre 4,7% en 2019), soit l’équivalent d’environ 4 années pleines de revalorisation. S’agissant des garanties octroyées, le taux technique moyen rattaché aux contrats d’assurance-vie individuels s’adapte à l’environnement de taux bas en poursuivant sa tendance baissière pour s’établir à 0,39% en 2020 contre 0,41% en 2019. Certains assureurs conservent toutefois dans leurs portefeuilles un stock d’anciens contrats à taux techniques élevés, susceptibles d’affecter significativement leurs résultats. Enfin, le taux de chargement de gestion des contrats payé par les assurés reste inchangé par rapport à 2019 et s’établit en moyenne à 0,62% en 2020, soit un niveau supérieur de 23 points de base à celui du taux technique moyen du marché. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:analys:126&r= |
| By: | Alessandro Cigno |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature concerning the evolution of cultural traits in general and preferences in particular, and the emergence and persistence of rules or norms, from a family per-spective. In models where every new person is effectively the clone of an existing one (either a parent or anyone else), there may be evolution only in the demographic sense that the share of the population who hold a certain trait increases or decreases. Evolution in the strict sense of new traits making their appearance occurs in models where the trait characterizing any given member of any given generation is a combination of traits drawn at random from those represented in the previous generation. Preferences may be altruistic or non-altruistic, but individuals may behave as if they were altruistic even if they are not, because a rule or norm may make it in their interest to do so. Evolutionary stability and renegotiation proofness play analogous roles, the former by selecting altruistic preferences, and the latter by selecting cooperation-inducing rules. |
| Keywords: | evolution, preferences, family rules, social norms, socialization, matching, hold-up problem |
| JEL: | Z10 C78 D01 D02 D13 J13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9226&r= |
| By: | Vibha Dwivedi |
| Abstract: | Mathematics class room is becoming increasingly diverse. Mathematics is all around us. Our life is governed by time and to understand time we need to understand mathematics. Teacher trainees must speak the language of mathematics to be successful in learning mathematics. Word problem solving in mathematics is an important aspect of learning mathematics and mathematical thinking. We need mathematics at every moment in our life. Many people enjoy mathematics in and out of the school, but at the same time mathematics anxiety and fear of mathematics subject is not new. Key Words: Mathematics, Phobia, Maths, Education, TLP Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-05&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Cuong |
| Abstract: | This study examines the poverty trend and profiles of urban population in Vietnam using recent household surveys. While the poverty rate in the urban areas is very small, at 1.1% in 2018, the vulnerability rate remains rather high, at 8.3%. We find different poverty rates across population sub-groups. Even living in the same urban areas, ethnic minorities have much higher poverty and vulnerability rates than Kinh/Hoa. The poverty rate of Kinh/Hoa was only 0.6% in 2018, while this rate of ethnic minorities was 14.6%. Similarly, there are large differences in the poverty and vulnerability rates between households with different education levels and occupations. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization; Urban poverty; Inequality, Household Survey; Vietnam. |
| JEL: | O2 |
| Date: | 2020–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108972&r= |
| By: | S. Snapp (Michigan State University [East Lansing] - Michigan State University System); Yodit Kebede (UMR Eco&Sols - Ecologie fonctionnelle et biogéochimie des sols et des agro-écosystèmes - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CIAT - International Center for Tropical Agriculture [Colombie] - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]); Eva Wollenberg (University of Vermont [Burlington]); K.M. Dittmer (CIAT - International Center for Tropical Agriculture [Colombie] - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]); S. Brickman (University of Vermont [Burlington]); C. Egler (University of Vermont [Burlington]); S. Shelton (University of Vermont [Burlington]) |
| Abstract: | Agroecology is increasingly seen as being able, or even necessary, to transform food systems (HLPE 2019). The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) commissioned this rapid evidence-based review to assess the quality and strength of evidence regarding (i) the impact of agroecological approaches on climate change mitigation and adaptation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and (ii) the programming approaches and conditions supporting large-scale transitions to agroecology and transitions. The review also aims to identify knowledge gaps critical to understand and inform future public and private investment in research, development, and deployment of agroecological approaches. The focus here is on the science of agroecology at the field and landscape level, not on social movement, value chain or business aspects. We use the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 10 elements of agroecology with the Gliessman (2016) framework to identify agroecology practices (transition level 2) and agroecology systems (transition level 3). To assess evidence related to agroecology's climate change outcomes we conducted a systematic literature review of i) synthesis papers and ii) primary empirical studies related to nutrient and pest and disease management. For the latter we documented the presence of evidence for climate change outcome indicators, but not the magnitude or direction of the change. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with representatives from 12 organisations supporting or implementing on-the-ground agricultural development programmes to better understand the feasibility of scaling out agroecology. |
| Keywords: | MONDE |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03278936&r= |
| By: | Caroline Orset (Université Paris-Saclay, ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | Despite several financial aids intended to promote the energy transition, the French people continue to buy energy-intensive products and are not interested in improving the energy performance of their homes. We propose a new measure which consists of provision of information to change individual behaviour. Currently, health and the environment are the prime concerns and we propose to encourage individuals to reduce their energy consumption by informing them of the environmental and health consequences linked to energy consumption. To test the validity of our proposal, we use the willingness to pay for more energy efficient equipment and thermal insulation. We conducted an online survey which included messages on the link between environment-energy and health-energy. We showed that it affected households' energy behaviour. We compared this strategy with policies already in place. We found that policies that combined provision of information with a subsidy, increase sales of goods that reduce energy consumption and was the best option from a social welfare perspective. |
| Abstract: | Malgré plusieurs aides financières destinées à favoriser la transition énergétique, les Français continuent d'acheter des produits énergivores et ne sont pas intéressés par l'amélioration de la performance énergétique de leur logement. Nous proposons une nouvelle mesure qui consiste à fournir des informations pour changer le comportement individuel. Actuellement, la santé et l'environnement sont au cœur des préoccupations et nous proposons d'inciter les particuliers à réduire leur consommation d'énergie en les informant des conséquences environnementales et sanitaires liées à la consommation d'énergie. Pour tester la validité de notre proposition, nous utilisons le consentement à payer pour des équipements plus économes en énergie et une isolation thermique. Nous avons mené une enquête en ligne qui comprenait des messages sur le lien entre environnement-énergie et santé-énergie. Nous avons montré qu'elle affectait le comportement énergétique des ménages. Nous avons comparé cette stratégie avec les politiques déjà en place. Nous avons constaté que les politiques qui combinent information et subvention, augmentent les ventes de biens qui réduisent la consommation d'énergie et constituent la meilleure option du point de vue du bien-être social. |
| Keywords: | Health and environment,Energy policy,Energy efficiency,Consumer willingness to pay,Politique énergétique,Consentement à payer du consommateur,Efficacité Energétique,Santé et environnement |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03284569&r= |
| By: | Jairo Abdala Martínez Henao |
| Keywords: | Sostenibilidad, Competitividad, Energías limpias |
| Date: | 2020–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000563:019374&r= |
| By: | Ali al-Nowaihi; Sanjit Dhami |
| Abstract: | We formulate a general theory of preferences over outcome-time-probability triplets and decompose uncertainty into risk and hazard. We define the delay, defer, shift and certainty functions that can be uniquely elicited from behaviour. These individually determine stationarity, the common difference effect and its converse; constant, decreasing and increasing impatience; additivity, subadditivity and super additivity; probability independence, the certainty effect and its converse. We propose a general discounted utility model which encompasses the main empirically supported discounted utility models. We show that our axioms on preferences are satisfied in our general discounted utility model. Finally, we discuss the various explanations of the common difference effect. |
| Keywords: | time preferences, preferences under uncertainty, discounted utility models, common difference effect, impatience, additivity, certainty effect, probability weighting function, survival function |
| JEL: | D15 D91 D81 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9215&r= |
| By: | Katsikatsou, Myrsini; Moustaki, Irini; Md Jamil, Haziq |
| Abstract: | Methods for the treatment of item non-response in attitudinal scales and in large-scale assessments under the pairwise likelihood (PL) estimation framework and under a missing at random (MAR) mechanism are proposed. Under a full information likelihood estimation framework and MAR, ignorability of the missing data mechanism does not lead to biased estimates. However, this is not the case for pseudo-likelihood approaches such as the PL. We develop and study the performance of three strategies for incorporating missing values into confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) under the PL framework, the complete-pairs (CP), the available-cases (AC) and the doubly robust (DR) approaches. The CP and AC require only a model for the observed data and standard errors are easy to compute. Doubly-robust versions of the PL estimation require a predictive model for the missing responses given the observed ones and are computationally more demanding than the AC and CP. A simulation study is used to compare the proposed methods. The proposed methods are employed to analyze the UK data on numeracy and literacy collected as part of the OECD Survey of Adult Skills. |
| Keywords: | composite likelihood; item non-response; latent variable model; latent variable models; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108933&r= |
| By: | Ángel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | En esta nota se analiza la liquidación del sistema financiación de las comunidades autónomas de régimen común correspondiente a 2019, que ha sido hecha pública recientemente por el Ministerio de Hacienda. Con los datos que se aportan en ese documento, se calcula la financiación definitiva a competencias homogéneas e igual esfuerzo fiscal del ejercicio 2019, introduciéndo también algunos ajustes a las cifras oficiales con el fin de hacerlas más comparables entre comunidades, y se cuantifican los flujos redistributivos interregionales canalizados a través del sistema de financiación autonómico. Finalmente, se analiza la evolución de los recursos sujetos a liquidación aportados por el sistema durante el período 2018-21. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2021-26&r= |
| By: | Juan I Block; Rohan Dutta; David K Levine |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cla:levarc:786969000000001758&r= |
| By: | David Vallat (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Julie Fabbri; Amélie Bohas |
| Abstract: | Open access to knowledge promotes collaboration, sharing, and exchange; further, it nourishes creativity, democratizes innovation (Hippel, 2005, 2017), and facilitates adaptation to a very volatile environment. So how can we favour collaboration and open access knowledge in education to stimulate students'creativity? We propose in this paper to present an experiment of situated learning based on the commons concept. This experiment relies on a method developed by a group of academics studying new work practices and collaborative spaces (the Research Group on Collaborative Spaces): the Open Walked Event-based Experimentation. The OWEE research method relies on collaboration to produce open access knowledge and considers walking in common as a good way to create a community. We adapted the OWEE protocol to a new context-a learning expedition mainly with students in a closed event space-to turn them into active and reflexive visitors of the fair. |
| Keywords: | open knowledge,teaching,learning expeditions,common-pool-resource,Commons |
| Date: | 2019–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03297753&r= |
| By: | Fukushige, Tatsuya; Fitch, Dillon; Handy, Susan |
| Abstract: | Dock-less, electric bike-share services offer cities a new transportation option with the potential to improve environmental, social, and health outcomes by increasing physical activity and reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and related greenhouse gas emissions. But these benefits accrue only if bike-share use replaces car travel. If bikeshare pulls users from public transit, personal bikes, or walking, the benefits will be limited. Little is known about the factors influencing whether bike-share substitutes for driving. Understanding the degree to which and under what circumstances bike-share use reduces car travel can inform cities’ efforts to meet VMT reduction goals set under California’s Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act of 2008 (Senate Bill 375). Researchers at the University of California, Davis collected user surveys and system-wide trip data from a Sacramentoarea dockless e-bike-share program in 2018 and 2019 to examine factors influencing travel mode substitution and estimated system-wide VMT reductions caused by bikeshare use. They developed a model to examine factors influencing bike-share demand and estimated potential VMT reductions for hypothetical expanded service scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt18q404xb&r= |
| By: | Andrea Bergesio (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Pablo Koch-Medina (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Cosimo Munari (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | Within the context of expected utility and in a discrete loss setting, we provide a complete account of the demand for insurance by strictly-risk averse agents and risk-neutral firms when they enjoy limited liability. When exposed to a bankrupting, binary loss and under actuarially fair prices, individuals and firms will either fully insure or not insure at all. The decision to insure will depend on whether the benefits the insuree derives from insurance after having compensated the damaged party are sufficiently attractive to justify the premium paid. When the loss is nonbinary, even when prices are actuarially fair, any amount of coinsurance can be optimal depending on the nature of the loss. |
| Keywords: | insurance, risk-averse agent, risk-neutral firm, franchise value, limited liability |
| JEL: | D21 D81 G22 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2157&r= |
| By: | Pashchenko, Svetlana; Porapakkarm, Ponpoje |
| Abstract: | How does the value of life affect annuity demand? To address this question, we construct a portfolio choice problem with three key features: i) agents have access to life-contingent assets, ii) they always prefer living to dying, iii) agents have non-expected utility preferences. We show that as utility from being alive increases, annuity demand decreases (increases) if agents are more (less) averse to risk rather than to intertemporal fluctuations. Put differently, if people prefer early resolution of uncertainty, they are less interested in annuities when the value of life is high. Our findings have two important implications. First, we get better understanding of the well-known annuity puzzle. Second, we argue that the observed low annuity demand provides evidence that people prefer early rather than late resolution of uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | annuities, value of a statistical life, portfolio choice problem, life-contingent assets, longevity insurance |
| JEL: | D91 G11 G22 |
| Date: | 2021–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108886&r= |
| By: | Anna D'Annunzio; Antonio Russo |
| Abstract: | A large share of the ads displayed by digital publishers (e.g., newspapers and blogs) are sold via intermediaries (e.g., Google), that have large market power and reportedly allocate the ads in an opaque way. We study the incentives of an intermediary to disclose consumer information to advertisers when auctioning ad impressions. We show that disclosing information that enables advertisers to optimize the allocation of ads on multi-homing consumers is profitable to the intermediary only if advertising markets are sufficiently thick. In turn, we study how disclosure affects the incentives of publishers to outsource the sale of their ads to an intermediary, and relate these incentives to the extent of consumer multi-homing, the competitiveness of advertising markets and the ability of platforms to profile consumers. We show that, even when most consumers multi-home, the publishers may be worse off by outsourcing to the intermediary, in particular if they operate in thin advertising markets. Finally, we study how the intermediary responds to policies designed to enhance transparency or consumer privacy, and the implications of these policies for the online advertising market. |
| Keywords: | online advertising, intermediary, multi-homing, privacy, transparency |
| JEL: | D43 D62 L82 M37 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9199&r= |
| By: | Manon Francois |
| Abstract: | We study the choice between source-based and destination-based corporate taxes in a two-country model, allowing multinational firms to use transfer pricing to allocate profits across tax jurisdictions. We show that source-based taxation is a Nash equilibrium for tax revenue maximizing jurisdictions if domestic and foreign firms generate large revenues. We also show that destination-based taxes are a Nash equilibrium when firms generate low revenues, which implies the presence of multiple equilibria. Both the source and the destination principle coexist in equilibrium when domestic and foreign corporate revenues are intermediate. However, the source principle always tax-dominates the destination principle. |
| Keywords: | tax competition, multinational firms, corporate taxes, transfer pricing |
| JEL: | F23 H00 H25 H26 H71 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9211&r= |
| By: | Adjin, K. Christophe; Goundan, Anatole; Henning, Christian H. C. A.; Sarr, Saer |
| Abstract: | The recent renaissance of the Senegalese cooperative movement coupled with the revival of the agricultural sector motivated this study, which mainly aims to analyse the impact of farmer-based organization membership on household land productivity and net income. We combined the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method with an Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model to derive treatment effects of membership in these farmer organizations using national household-level survey data. Results exhibit consistency across estimations techniques. Estimates of both ESR and PSM models showed that membership in farmer organizations affects positively and significantly the household land productivity and net income. Moreover, findings show that membership has a heterogeneous impact. Households with the lowest probability to be members of farmer organizations have the highest impact. The effect of membership depends also on the specific type of organization. |
| Keywords: | Farmer organizations,impact evaluation,land productivity,household income,Senegal |
| JEL: | Q13 D04 Q15 Q12 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp202010&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp06&r= |
| By: | Mark S. Manger; J. Scott Matthews |
| Abstract: | Why do household saving rates differ so much across countries? This micro-level question has global implications: countries that systematically "oversave" export capital by running current account surpluses. In the recipient countries, interest rates are thus too low and financial stability is put at risk. Existing theories argue that saving is precautionary, but tests are limited to cross-country comparisons and are not always supportive. We report the findings of an original survey experiment. Using a simulated financial saving task implemented online, we compare the saving preferences of a large and diverse sample of Chinese-Canadians with other Canadians. This comparison is instructive given that Chinese-Canadians migrated from, or descend from those who migrated from, a high-saving environment to a low-savings, high-debt environment. We also compare behavior in the presence and absence of a simulated "welfare state," which we represent in the form of mandatory insurance. Our respondents exhibit behavior in the saving task that corresponds to standard economic assumptions about lifecycle savings and risk aversion. We find strong evidence that precautionary saving is reduced when a mandatory insurance is present, but no sign that Chinese cultural influences - represented in linguistic or ethnic terms - have any effect on saving behavior. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00519&r= |
| By: | Acemoglu, Daron (Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER); Pekkarinen, Tuomas (VATT Institute for Economic Research and Department of Economics, Aalto University School of Business); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Sarvimäki, Matti (Department of Economics, Aalto University School of Business; VATT and Helsinki GSE) |
| Abstract: | Upon assuming power for the first time in 1935, the Norwegian Labour Party delivered on its promise for a major schooling reform. The reform raised minimum instruction time in less developed rural areas and boosted the resources available to rural schools, reducing class size and increasing teacher salaries. We document that cohorts more intensively affected by the reform significantly increased their education and experienced higher labor income. Our main result is that the schooling reform also substantially increased support for the Norwegian Labour Party in subsequent elections. This additional support persisted for several decades and was pivotal in maintaining support for the social democratic coalition in Norway. These results are not driven by the direct impact of education and are not explained by higher turnout, or greater attention or resources from the Labour Party targeted towards the municipalities most affected by the reform. Rather, our evidence suggests that cohorts that benefited from the schooling reform, and their parents, rewarded the party for delivering a major reform that was beneficial to them. |
| Keywords: | education; human capital; labor; schooling reform; social democracy; voting |
| JEL: | I28 J26 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2021_014&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp10&r= |
| By: | Tracey L. Henry; Eugene Rich; Andrew Bazemore |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted both the importance of primary care and the fragility of its current infrastructure in the United States (US). |
| Keywords: | covid-19, primary care, comprehensive care, health |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:384eac09688845b9ace1043937706033&r= |
| By: | Guerino Ardizzi (Banca d'Italia); Diego Scalise (Banca d'Italia); Gabriele Sene (Banca d'Italia) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between interchange fees and card transactions in a large panel of countries and assess the impact of the Interchange Fee Regulation, introduced in 2015 in the European Union, on card usage. For our purposes, we take advantage of a newly assembled dataset covering almost 50 countries in the last decade and carry out two econometric exercises. Firstly, we estimate the relationship between card transactions per capita and average interchange fees by means of a panel estimator including both country and year fixed-effects, thus exploiting the broad heterogeneity across countries over time. Our results point toward a negative and significant relationship between the number and the growth rate of card-based transactions per capita and the level of interchange fees. Secondly, we adopt a difference-in-difference approach and compare the change in card payments in EU member countries (the treated group), before and after the implementation of the Interchange Fee Regulation in 2015, with that observed in a group of comparable countries (control group), which did not experience any change in interchange fee setting regulations. We find a strong and significant one-off impact of the Regulation immediately after its introduction and considerable propagation effects in the following years. Overall, we support the view that policy actions aiming at containing, but not eliminating, interchange fees can significantly contribute to the diffusion of electronic payments. |
| Keywords: | Interchange fees, Regulation, card payments |
| JEL: | E42 G2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_628_21&r= |
| By: | Leandro Arozamena; Juan-José Ganuza; Federico Weinschelbaum |
| Abstract: | In order to make competition open, fair and transparent, procurement regulations often require equal treatment for all bidders. This paper shows how a favorite supplier can be treated preferentially (opening the door to home bias and corruption) even when explicit discrimination is not allowed. We analyze a procurement setting in which the optimal design of the project to be contracted is unknown. The sponsor has to invest in specifying the project. The larger the investment, the higher the probability that the initial design is optimal. When it is not, a bargaining process between the winning firm and the sponsor takes place. Profits from bargaining are larger for the favorite supplier than for its rivals. Given this comparative advantage, the favored firm bids more aggressively and then, it wins more often than standard firms. Finally, we show that the sponsor invests less in specifying the initial design, when favoritism is stronger. Underinvestment in design specification is a tool for providing a comparative advantage to the favored firm. |
| Keywords: | Auctions, Favoritism, Auction Design, Renegotiation, Corruption |
| JEL: | C72 D44 D82 |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000518:019429&r= |
| By: | Leandro Arozamena; Juan-José Ganuza; Federico Weinschelbaum |
| Abstract: | In order to make competition open, fair and transparent, procurement regulations often require equal treatment for all bidders. This paper shows how a favorite supplier can be treated preferentially (opening the door to home bias and corruption) even when explicit discrimination is not allowed. We analyze a procurement setting in which the optimal design of the project to be contracted is unknown. The sponsor has to invest in specifying the project. The larger the investment, the higher the probability that the initial design is optimal. When it is not, a bargaining process between the winning firm and the sponsor takes place. Profits from bargaining are larger for the favorite supplier than for its rivals. Given this comparative advantage, the favored firm bids more aggressively and then, it wins more often than standard firms. Finally, we show that the sponsor invests less in specifying the initial design, when favoritism is stronger. Underinvestment in design specification is a tool for providing a comparative advantage to the favored firm. |
| Keywords: | Auctions, Favoritism, Auction Design, Renegotiation, Corruption |
| JEL: | C72 D44 D82 |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000518:019430&r= |
| By: | Bernardo Morais; José-Luis Peydró; Claudia Ruiz-Ortega |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of public debt limits on economic growth exploiting the introduction of a Mexican law capping the debt of subnational governments. Despite larger fiscal consolidation, states with higher ex-ante public debt grew substantially faster after the law, albeit at the expense of increased extreme poverty. Credit registry data suggests that the mechanism behind this result is a reduction in crowding out. After the law, banks operating in more indebted states reallocate credit away from local governments and into private firms. The unwinding of crowding out is stronger for riskier firms, firms borrowing from banks more exposed to local public debt, and for firms operating in states with lower public spending on infrastructure projects. |
| Keywords: | Crowding out; Government lending; Subnational debt; Banks; Emerging markets |
| JEL: | D72 G21 L33 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1323&r= |
| By: | Gapeev, Pavel V. |
| Abstract: | We study a two-dimensional discounted optimal stopping problem related to the pricing of perpetual commodity equities in a model of financial markets in which the behaviour of the underlying asset price follows a generalized geometric Brownian motion and the dynamics of the convenience yield are described by an unobservable continuous-time Markov chain with two states. It is shown that the optimal time of exercise is the first time at which the commodity spot price paid in return to the fixed coupon rate hits a lower stochastic boundary being a monotone function of the running value of the filtering estimate of the state of the chain. We rigorously prove that the optimal stopping boundary is regular for the stopping region relative to the resulting two-dimensional diffusion process and the value function is continuously differentiable with respect to the both variables. It is verified by means of a change-of-variable formula with local time on surfaces that the value function and the boundary are determined as a unique solution of the associated parabolic-type free-boundary problem. We also give a closed-form solution to the optimal stopping problem for the case of an observable Markov chain. |
| Keywords: | Discounted optimal stopping problem; generalised geometric Brownian motion; continuous-time Markov chain; filtering estimate (Wonham filter); two-dimensional diffusion process; parabolic-type free-boundary problem; change-of-variable formula with local time on surfaces; perpetual commodity equities and defautable bonds; T&F deal |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2021–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110493&r= |
| By: | Moore, Rachel; Pecoraro, Brandon |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic analyses of wealth taxes typically treat all household wealth as taxable, despite noted administrative difficulties with including owner-occupied housing and noncorporate equity in the tax base. In this paper, we quantify the macroeconomic and budgetary impact of avoidance due to these exclusions from a stylized, broad-based, top-wealth tax in the United States. We use a two-sector, large-scale overlapping generations model where, in the presence of exclusions, avoidance behavior arises endogenously through households’ reallocation of wealth and firms’ reallocation of economic activity. We find that while the macroeconomic and budgetary effects of the housing exclusion are insignificant, the noncorporate equity exclusion introduces a production-level distortion that results in a significant reallocation of economic activity from the corporate to noncorporate sector. We show that the federal revenue loss due to legal avoidance in the latter case can be similar to the amount lost due to illegal evasion via under-reporting wealth, but nonetheless have a quantitatively distinct path of macroeconomic aggregates. Finally, because interest in a wealth tax is linked to its potential for financing federal outlays, we show how variation in macroeconomic and budgetary effects across alternative expenditures affects the amount of new outlays availed by the tax itself. We find that while dedicating new revenue to public infrastructure investment leads to the largest increase in aggregate output, dedicating new revenue to federal debt reduction leads to the largest increase in outlays. |
| Keywords: | dynamic scoring; wealth tax; avoidance; evasion; |
| JEL: | E62 H26 H27 |
| Date: | 2021–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109120&r= |
| By: | Leandro Arozamena; Juan-José Ganuza; Federico Weinschelbaum |
| Abstract: | In order to make competition open, fair and transparent, procurement regulations often require equal treatment for all bidders. This paper shows how a favorite supplier can be treated preferentially (opening the door to home bias and corruption) even when explicit discrimination is not allowed. We analyze a procurement setting in which the optimal design of the project to be contracted is unknown. The sponsor has to invest in specifying the project. The larger the investment, the higher the probability that the initial design is optimal. When it is not, a bargaining process between the winning firm and the sponsor takes place. Profits from bargaining are larger for the favorite supplier than for its rivals. Given this comparative advantage, the favored firm bids more aggressively and then, it wins more often than standard firms. Finally, we show that the sponsor invests less in specifying the initial design, when favoritism is stronger. Underinvestment in design specification is a tool for providing a comparative advantage to the favored firm. |
| Keywords: | auctions, favoritism, auction design, renegotiation, corruption |
| JEL: | C72 D44 D82 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1275&r= |
| By: | Beltramo, Theresa (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees); Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Sarr, Ibrahima (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees); Verme, Paolo (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Household consumption surveys do not typically cover refugee populations, and poverty estimates for refugees are rare. This paper tests the performance of a recently developed cross-survey imputation method to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Chad, combining survey and administrative data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The proposed method offers poverty estimates based on administrative data that are mostly statistically insignificantly different from those based on survey consumption data. This result is robust to different poverty lines, sets of regressors, and modeling assumptions of the error terms. We find the method to outperform common targeting methods, such as proxy means tests and the targeting method that is currently used by humanitarian organizations in Chad. |
| Keywords: | refugees, forced displacement, poverty, imputation, targeting, Chad |
| JEL: | C15 F22 I32 O15 O20 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14606&r= |
| By: | Alexandre Carbonneau; Fr\'ed\'eric Godin |
| Abstract: | The use of non-translation invariant risk measures within the equal risk pricing (ERP) methodology for the valuation of financial derivatives is investigated. The ability to move beyond the class of convex risk measures considered in several prior studies provides more flexibility within the pricing scheme. In particular, suitable choices for the risk measure embedded in the ERP framework such as the semi-mean-square-error (SMSE) are shown herein to alleviate the price inflation phenomenon observed under Tail Value-at-Risk based ERP as documented for instance in Carbonneau and Godin (2021b). The numerical implementation of non-translation invariant ERP is performed through deep reinforcement learning, where a slight modification is applied to the conventional deep hedging training algorithm (see Buehler et al., 2019) so as to enable obtaining a price through a single training run for the two neural networks associated with the respective long and short hedging strategies. The accuracy of the neural network training procedure is shown in simulation experiments not to be materially impacted by such modification of the training algorithm. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11340&r= |
| By: | Sumeyra Atmaca (Ghent University); Karolin Kirschenmann (ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Koen J. L. Schoors (Ghent University - Centre for Russian International Socio-Political and Economic Studies (CERISE); Ghent University - Department of General Economics) |
| Abstract: | We employ proprietary data from a large bank to analyze how – in times of crisis – depositors react to a bank nationalization, re-privatization and an accompanying increase in deposit insurance. Nationalization slows depositors fleeing the bank, provided they have sufficient trust in the national government, while the increase in deposit insurance spurs depositors below the new 100K limit to deposit more. Prior to nationalization, depositors bunch just below the then-prevailing 20K limit. But they abandon bunching entirely during state-ownership, to return to bunching below the new 100K limit after re-privatization. Especially depositors with low switching costs are moving money around. |
| Keywords: | deposit insurance; coverage limit; bank nationalization; depositor heterogeneity |
| JEL: | G21 G28 H13 N23 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2156&r= |
| By: | Flögel, Volker; Schlag, Christian; Zunft, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Managed portfolios that exploit positive first-order autocorrelation in monthly excess returns of equity factor portfolios produce large alphas and gains in Sharpe ratios. We document this finding for factor portfolios formed on the broad market, size, value, momentum, investment, profitability, and volatility. The value-added induced by factor management via short-term momentum is a robust empirical phenomenon that survives transaction costs and carries over to multi-factor portfolios. The novel strategy established in this work compares favorably to well-known timing strategies that employ e.g. factor volatility or factor valuation. For the majority of factors, our strategies appear successful especially in recessions and times of crisis. |
| Keywords: | factor timing,time series momentum,anomalies |
| JEL: | G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:317&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp05&r= |
| By: | Pesaran, M. H.; Xie, Y. |
| Abstract: | In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2021) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection and propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak, and proposes a simple bias-corrected CD test, labelled CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically normal, irrespective of whether the latent factors are weak or strong. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regressions with latent factors. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size and satisfactory power for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and have low power against spatial network alternatives. The use of the CD* test is illustrated with two empirical applications from the literature. |
| Keywords: | Latent factor models, strong and weak factors, error cross-sectional dependence, spatial and network alternatives |
| JEL: | C18 C23 C55 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2158&r= |
| By: | Fiedor, Pawel (Central Bank of Ireland); Fragkou, Stamatoula (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the Central Bank has been building its capabilities to develop a macroprudential stress-testing framework for investment funds. A key dimension of building that framework over time will be incorporating the differential liquidity of asset markets to which investment funds are exposed. As a first step in that direction, in this Note, we investigate the heterogeneity of market liquidity risk for investment funds domiciled in Ireland. We achieve this by utilizing the previously publishedAn Lonn Dubh baseline stress test. We show the effects of varying liquidity shocks across domestic and international asset markets when investment funds face substantial redemptions. Our findings underline Irish domiciled funds’ sensitivity to illiquidity in equity and debt markets. Further, liquidity strains appliedexogenously to US equity, US bank debt, or UK government debt markets, lead to a particularly high volume of‘second round’ losses for funds, reflecting the material exposures of the Irish fund sector to those asset classes.We outline the implications of these results for the continued development of the stress-testing framework, financial stability surveillance, and macroprudential regulation. Finally, our findings also shed light on the potential externalities that funds’ behaviour can impose on financial markets in the face of large redemption shocks and a contraction in market liquidity. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:5/fs/21&r= |
| By: | Christoph Albert (Christoph Albert); Albrecht Glitz (Albrecht Glitz); Joan Llull (Joan Llull) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that the wage assimilation of immigrants is the result of the intricate interplay between individual skill accumulation and dynamic equilibrium effects in the labor market. When immigrants and natives are imperfect substitutes, increasing immigrant inflows widen the wage gap between them. Using a simple production function framework, we show that this labor market competition channel can explain about one quarter of the large increase in the average immigrant-native wage gap in the United States between the 1960s and 1990s arrival cohorts. Once competition effects and compositional changes in education and region of origin are accounted for, we find that the unobservable skills of newly arriving immigrants increased over time rather than decreased as traditionally argued in the literature. We corroborate this finding by documenting closely matching patterns for immigrants’ English language proficiency. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant Assimilation, Labor Market Competition, CohortSizes, Imperfect Substitution, General and Specific Skills |
| JEL: | J21 J22 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2125&r= |
| By: | David S. Rapson; Erich Muehlegger |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) powered by renewable electricity are a centerpiece of efforts to decarbonize transportation. EV advocates also claim benefits from local pollution reductions, lower life-cycle costs to consumers, and improved energy security. We examine the theory and evidence behind these claims and evaluate when the market will produce the optimal path of EV adoption. Optimal EV policy is nuanced. While EVs driven in some locations reduce pollution, they increase pollution in others. While many consumers enjoy cost savings from EVs, some experience net benefits from choosing gasoline-powered cars, even after accounting for EV subsidies. And depending on the dynamic benefits of stimulating EV adoption today, optimal policy might front-load stimulus, even though the environmental benefits of EV adoption are likely to increase over time as electricity grids become cleaner. Reflecting these nuances, the policy landscape is complicated and often creates conflicting incentives for EV adoption in regions with ambitious adoption goals. We highlight several themes for policy design, including 1) promoting regional variation in EV policies that align private incentives with social benefits, 2) pursuing a time-path of policies that follows the trajectory of marginal benefits, and 3) rationalizing electricity and gasoline prices to reflect their social marginal cost. On the extensive margin, purchase incentives should ramp-down as learning-by-doing and network externalities that may exist diminish; on the intensive margin, gasoline should become relative more expensive than electricity (per mile traveled) to reflect cleaner marginal emissions from electricity generation. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q55 Q58 R4 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29093&r= |
| By: | Sofonias A. Korsaye (University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI); Swiss Finance Institute); Alberto Quaini (University of Geneva); Fabio Trojani (Swiss Finance Institute; University of Geneva) |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel no-arbitrage framework, which exploits convex asset pricing constraints to study investors’ marginal utility of wealth or, more generally, Stochastic Discount Factors (SDFs). We establish a duality between minimum dispersion SDFs and penalized portfolio selection problems, building the foundation for characterizing the feasible tradeoffs between a SDF’s pricing accuracy and its comovement with systematic risks. Empirically, a minimum variance CAPM–SDF produces a Pareto optimal tradeoff. This SDF only depends on two distinct risk factors: A traded market factor and a minimum variance excess return that bounds the mispricing of risks unspanned by market shocks. |
| Keywords: | SDF, Convex Pricing Constraints, Minimum Dispersion SDF, Market Frictions, SDF regularization, Arbitrage Pricing Theory |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2151&r= |
| By: | Bureau Benjamin,; Duquerroy Anne,; Giorgi Julien,; Lé Mathias,; Scott Suzanne,; Vinas Frédéric |
| Abstract: | Taking advantage of detailed firm-level data on VAT returns, we estimate the monthly impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the turnover of more than 645,000 French firms. Our approach, based on a micro-simulation model, is innovative in a triple way. Firstly, we quantify the activity loss with respect to a counterfactual situation in which the crisis would not have hit. Secondly, we estimate this shock at the firm level, enabling a thorough analysis of activity loss heterogeneity throughout the crisis. In particular, we shade light on the dispersion of the shock both within and between industries. We show that the industry the firm operates in explains up to 48% of the monthly activity shocks’ variance weighted by employment, a much larger share than in a normal year. Finally, we leverage our monthly firm-level data on sales to show how corporate activity has evolved along four distinct trajectories throughout 2020. The main determinant of belonging to a given profile of activity is the firm industry – defined at a very granular level. Conditional on industry, the activity trajectory is also correlated with the ability to adapt some firms have demonstrated during the crisis in terms of organization and production. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 ; business dynamics ; micro-simulation ; non-financial corporations |
| JEL: | D22 G38 H32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:823&r= |
| By: | Nina Buchmann; Erica M. Field; Rachel Glennerster; Shahana Nazneen; Xiao Yu Wang |
| Abstract: | Child marriage remains common even where female schooling and employment opportunities have grown. We introduce a signaling model in which bride type is imperfectly observed but preferred types have lower returns to delaying marriage. We show that in this environment the market might pool on early marriage even when everyone would benefit from delay. In this setting, offering a small incentive can delay marriage of all treated types and untreated non-preferred types, while programs that act directly on norms can unintentionally encourage early marriage. We test these theoretical predictions by experimentally evaluating a financial incentive to delay marriage alongside a girls’ empowerment program designed to shift norms. As predicted, girls eligible for the incentive are 19% less likely to marry underage, as are nonpreferred type women ineligible for the incentive. Meanwhile, the empowerment program was successful in promoting more progressive gender norms but failed to decrease adolescent marriage and increased dowry payments. |
| JEL: | D03 D9 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29052&r= |
| By: | Narciz Balasoiu (Academy of Economic Studies, Faculty of International Business, Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The issue of corporate taxation applied in the jurisdiction in which a company operates has recently received increasing political traction, as tax havens have increasingly drawn attention and also as multinationals have developed colossal turnovers, far above the GDPs of less developed countries. Tax havens deprive of billions of dollars many states that have not established through adequate legislation an assertive fiscal control, generating and fueling social inequities and a high degree of poverty. By funneling money through tax havens to avoid the payment of taxes and fees, multinationals deprive national governments of large sums of money that could be directed to education or health programs. |
| Keywords: | tax havens, European Union, tax avoidance, profit shifting |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01241&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp08&r= |
| By: | Jaqueson K. Galimberti |
| Abstract: | Experienced-based-expectations allow the outcomes people experience to shape their views regarding future outcomes. We describe three forms of experienced-based-expectations and show how they can be applied in general equilibrium. The three expectations processes differ according to the nature of the information people use to form expectations and according to how well people understand their economic environment. In the context of a non-linear new Keynesian business cycle model, we show that experienced-based-expectations generally lead to increased volatility and sustained persistence, akin to scarring, relative to rational expectations. Through this expectations channel, periods of sustained bad outcomes, such as systematically low aggregate technology shocks, lead to persistently lower inflation. Changes in the inflation target have a greater effect on behavior when expectations are formed using outcomes on endogenous variables than when they are formed using outcomes on the shocks. |
| Keywords: | Experience, expectations, learning, persistence, scarring, macroeconomic dynamics |
| JEL: | E32 E71 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-69&r= |
| By: | Fabio Zambuto (Bank of Italy); Simona Arcuti (Bank of Italy); Roberto Sabatini (Bank of Italy); Daniele Zambuto |
| Abstract: | In the context of the data quality management of supervisory banking data, the Bank of Italy receives a significant number of data reports at various intervals from Italian banks. If any anomalies are found, a quality remark is sent back, questioning the data submitted. This process can lead to the bank in question confirming or revising the data it previously transmitted. We propose an innovative methodology, based on text mining and machine learning techniques, for the automatic processing of the data confirmations received from banks. A classification model is employed to predict whether these confirmations should be accepted or rejected based on the reasons provided by the reporting banks, the characteristics of the validation quality checks, and reporting behaviour across the banking system. The model was trained on past cases already labelled by data managers and its performance was assessed against a set of cross-checked cases that were used as gold standard. The empirical findings show that the methodology predicts the correct decisions on recurrent data confirmations and that the performance of the proposed model is comparable to that of data managers currently engaged in data analysis. |
| Keywords: | supervisory banking data, data quality management, machine learning, text mining, latent dirichlet allocation, gradient boosting. |
| JEL: | C18 C81 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_631_21&r= |
| By: | Schneider, Eric B. |
| Abstract: | There is a complex inter-relationship between nutrition and morbidity in human health. Many diseases reduce nutritional status, but on the other hand, having low nutritional status is also known to make individuals more susceptible to certain diseases and to more serious illness. Modern evidence on these relationships, determined after the introduction of antibiotics and vaccines, may not be applicable to historical settings before these medical technologies were available. This paper uses a historical cohort study based on records from the London Foundling Hospital to determine the causal effect of nutritional status of children, proxied by weight- and height-for-age Z-scores, on the odds of contracting five infectious diseases of childhood (measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox and whooping cough) and on sickness duration from these diseases. I identify a causal effect by exploiting the randomisation of environmental conditions as foundling children were removed from their original homes, then fostered with families in counties nearby London and later returned to the Foundling Hospital’s main site in London. I find no effect of nutritional status on the odds of contracting the five diseases, but I do find a historically important and statistically significant effect of nutritional status on sickness duration for measles and mumps. These findings have three implications. First, historical incidence of these diseases was unrelated to nutritional status, meaning that poor nutritional status during famines or during the Colombian Exchange did not affect the spread of epidemics. However, undernutrition in these events may have exacerbated measles severity. Second, improving nutritional status in the past 150 years would have reduced the severity of measles and mumps infections but not affect the decline in whooping cough mortality. Finally, selective culling effects from measles would be larger than those from whooping cough since whooping cough severity was not correlated with underlying nutritional status. |
| Keywords: | morbidity; nutritional status; infectious diseases; health transition |
| JEL: | N01 N30 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111030&r= |
| By: | Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | In order to analyze how the excess of growth over the real interest rate can best contribute to Indian post Covid19 debt adjustment paths, we draw on historical experience, past adjustment episodes and special features of emerging markets (EMs). In many EMs growth (g) routinely exceeds real interest rates (r) because of good growth prospects. But borrowing costs are high and unstable. Volatility and uncertainty can raise risk premiums and interest rates. Both domestic and international risks have to be reduced to lower volatility. With regard to domestic policy, India does show a credible fall in primary deficit ratio (PD) as well as off budget items after fiscal responsibility legislation was introduced. The g-r gap was also positive but pro-cyclical macroeconomic policy made this highly variable. Counter-cyclical policy that stabilizes shocks can keep average g-r at around 5. A counter-cyclical PD will contribute, and together with a substantial g-r gap, lower debt most efficiently, creating space for adequate fiscal response to future shocks. Reducing debt in the medium-term is consistent with Covid19 related fiscal spending. |
| Keywords: | Deficits, Debt, Adjustment paths, Covid19, Emerging markets |
| JEL: | H63 E62 E63 O11 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-016&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp04&r= |
| By: | Lawrence Christiano; Husnu Dalgic; Armen Nurbekyan |
| Abstract: | We present data that suggests financial dollarization is primarily a device for reallocating business cycle income risk between different people within emerging market economies, rather than across different countries. Although we identify sources of fragility in some aspects of dollarization, the common view that financial dollarization is a source of fragility is over-stated. We develop a simple model which formalizes the insurance view, which is consistent with the key crosscountry facts on interest rate differentials, deposit dollarization and exchange rate depreciations in recessions. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_306&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp14&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp07&r= |
| By: | Francesco Andreoli (UNIVR - University of Verona); Mathieu Faure (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Nicolas Gravel (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Tista Kundu (CSH - Centre de sciences humaines de New Delhi - MEAE - Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a robust criterion for evaluating the allocation of opportunities among various groups. We envisage the problem of comparing these allocations from the view point of an ethical observer placed behind a veil of ignorance with respect to the group in which he/she could end up. We give justi…cation for such an ethical observer to evaluate these allocations of opportunities on the basis of an expected valuation of the expected utility of being in a group assuming an equal probability of falling in every group. We identify a criterion for comparing societies that is agreed upon by all such ethical observers who exhibit aversion to inequality of opportunities. The criterion happens to be a conic extension of zonotope inclusion criterion. We provide various interpretations of this criterion as well as some illustrations of its possible use, notably in the Indian context where we evaluate the inequalities of educational opportunities among castes and genders o¤ered by Indian states. |
| Keywords: | equalizing opportunities,groups,zonotopes,gender,education |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03294267&r= |
| By: | Manuela Tvaronavičienė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Daugavpils University); Tomas Plėta (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University); Silvia Casa (NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence); Juozas Latvys (NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence) |
| Abstract: | The progresses made in terms of cybersecurity in these past years have been huge, and the implementation of newer strategies has brought interesting results all over the globe. However, the full implementation of cybersecurity presents a challenge to a lot of countries, especially if considered the Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), which is still one of the areas with the most gaps in terms of cybersecurity. In this article, the first five countries by cybersecurity level according to the Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI) 2018, in order UK, USA, France, Estonia and Lithuania, will be evaluated for their solutions in terms of Critical Infrastructure Protection. The results will show the effective accuracy of the index and will shed light on the various approaches to Critical Infrastructure Protection. |
| Keywords: | cybersecurity,critical infrastructure protection,management,energy security,cyber attack |
| Date: | 2020–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03298796&r= |
| By: | Budhi Surya |
| Abstract: | Although it has been well accepted that the asymptotic covariance matrix of maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for complete data is given by the inverse Fisher information, this paper shows that when the MLE for incomplete data is derived using the EM algorithm, the asymptotic covariance matrix is however no longer specified by the inverse Fisher information. In general, the new information is smaller than the latter in the sense of Loewner partial ordering. A sandwich estimator of covariance matrix is developed based on the observed information of incomplete data and a consistent estimator of complete-data information matrix. The observed information simplifies calculation of conditional expectation of outer product of the complete-data score function appeared in the Louis (1982) general matrix formula. The proposed sandwich estimator takes a different form than the Huber sandwich estimator under model misspecification framework (Freedman, 2006 and Little and Rubin, 2020). Moreover, it does not involve the inverse observed Fisher information of incomplete data which therefore notably gives an appealing feature for application. Recursive algorithms for the MLE and the sandwich estimator of covariance matrix are presented. Application to parameter estimation of regime switching conditional Markov jump process is considered to verify the results. The simulation study confirms that the MLEs are accurate and consistent having asymptotic normality. The sandwich estimator produces standard errors of the MLE which are closer to their analytic values than those provided by the inverse observed Fisher information. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01243&r= |
| By: | Zhijun Chen; Chongwoo Choe; Jiajia Cong; Noriaki Matsushima |
| Abstract: | This paper studies tech mergers that involve a large volume of consumer data. The merger links the markets for data collection and data application through a consumption synergy. The merger-specific efficiency gains exist in the market for data application due to the consumption synergy and data-enabled personalization. Prices fall in the market for data collection due to the merged firm's incentives to expand its outreach in the market for data application. But in the market for data application, prices generally rise as the efficiency gains are extracted away through personalized pricing, rather than being passed on to consumers. When the consumption synergy is large enough, the merger can result in monopolization of both markets, with further consumer harm when stand-alone competitors exit in the long run. We discuss policy implications including various merger remedies. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1108r&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp12&r= |
| By: | Ruiz-García, J. C. |
| Abstract: | How do financial frictions affect firm dynamics, allocation of resources across firms, and aggregate productivity and output? Is the nature of productivity shocks that firms face primary for the effects of financial frictions? I first use a comprehensive dataset of Spanish firms from 1999 to 2014 to estimate non-parametrically the firm productivity dynamics. I find that the productivity process is non-linear, as persistence and shock variability depend on past productivity, and productivity shocks are non-Gaussian. These dynamics differ from the ones implied by a standard AR(1) process, commonly used in the firm dynamics literature. I then build a model of firm dynamics with financial frictions in which productivity shocks are non-linear and non-Gaussian. The model is consistent with a host of evidence on firm dynamics, financial frictions, and firms’ financial behaviour. In the model economy, financial frictions affect the firm life cycle. Without financial frictions, the size of an entrant firm will be three times larger. Furthermore, profit accumulation, which allows firms to overcome financial frictions, is slow, and it only speeds up when firms are mature. As a consequence, the average exiting firm is smaller than it would be without financial frictions. The aggregate consequences of financial frictions are significant. They result in misallocation of capital and reduce aggregate productivity by 16%. This figure is only 8% if productivity dynamics evolve according to a standard AR(1) process. |
| Keywords: | Firm Dynamics, Non-Linear Productivity Process, Financial Frictions, Misallocation |
| JEL: | E22 G32 O16 |
| Date: | 2021–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2157&r= |
| By: | Albert Jan Hummel; Vinzenz Ziesemer |
| Abstract: | The Atkinson-Stiglitz theorem on uniform consumption taxation breaks down if prices are endogenous. This paper investigates the implications for optimal food subsidies in China. To do so, we build a general equilibrium model where low-skilled workers have a comparative advantage in the production of food. Food subsidies raise the relative demand for low-skilled workers, which reduces the skill premium and indirectly redistributes income from high-skilled to low-skilled workers. We calibrate our model to match key moments from the Chinese economy, including sectoral production and spending patterns that we obtain from micro-level survey data. Our results suggest that general equilibrium effects rationalize food subsidies in the range 5%-12%. |
| Keywords: | uniform consumption taxes, general equilibrium effects, food subsidies |
| JEL: | E64 H21 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9201&r= |
| By: | Svenn Jensen; Christian P. Traeger; Christian Träger |
| Abstract: | Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the energy balance of our planet. Various climatic feedbacks make the resulting warming over the next decades and centuries highly uncertain. We quantify how this uncertainty changes the optimal carbon tax in a stochastic dynamic programming implementation of an integrated assessment model of climate change. We derive a general analytic formula for the “risk premium” governing the resulting climate policy. The formula generalizes simple precautionary savings analysis to more complex economic interactions and it builds the economic intuition for policy making under uncertainty. It clarifies the distinct roles of risk aversion, prudence, characteristics of the damage formulation, and future policy response. We show that an optimal response to uncertainty substantially reduces the risk premium. |
| Keywords: | climate change, uncertainty, risk premium, precautionary savings, prudence, climate policy, dynamic programming, integrated assessment, DICE, recursive utility |
| JEL: | Q54 Q00 D90 C63 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9196&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp11&r= |
| By: | Ciprian Corneliu Ciurea (Aurel Vlaicu University, Arad, Romania) |
| Abstract: | : There is no need to be a specialist in order to be able to see that progress, generally, whether it is the progress of a nation or of a church, is based on education, especially in today’s Romanian society, when the past education makes its flaws obvious in a very clear manner. This is even more visible among young people who, for decades, have been deprived of religious, Christian education, and are now raising serious moral issues. |
| Keywords: | church, neo-Protestant, religious education, communism, choirs, brass bands, orchestras |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01247&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp09&r= |
| By: | Daniel R. Kowal |
| Abstract: | Functional data are frequently accompanied by parametric templates that describe the typical shapes of the functions. Although the templates incorporate critical domain knowledge, parametric functional data models can incur significant bias, which undermines the usefulness and interpretability of these models. To correct for model misspecification, we augment the parametric templates with an infinite-dimensional nonparametric functional basis. Crucially, the nonparametric factors are regularized with an ordered spike-and-slab prior, which implicitly provides rank selection and satisfies several appealing theoretical properties. This prior is accompanied by a parameter-expansion scheme customized to boost MCMC efficiency, and is broadly applicable for Bayesian factor models. The nonparametric basis functions are learned from the data, yet constrained to be orthogonal to the parametric template in order to preserve distinctness between the parametric and nonparametric terms. The versatility of the proposed approach is illustrated through applications to synthetic data, human motor control data, and dynamic yield curve data. Relative to parametric alternatives, the proposed semiparametric functional factor model eliminates bias, reduces excessive posterior and predictive uncertainty, and provides reliable inference on the effective number of nonparametric terms--all with minimal additional computational costs. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02151&r= |
| By: | Tommaso Perez (Bank of Italy); Francesco Potente (Bank of Italy); Andrea Carboni (Bank of Italy); Alberto Di Iorio (Bank of Italy); Jacopo Raponi (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Level 2 (L2) and Level 3 (L3) assets and liabilities represent a substantial portion of European banks’ balance sheets, and valuing them is extremely difficult, since no liquid market prices are available. This paper relies on a large panel of euro-area banks between 2014 and 2019, and two different econometric frameworks, in order to estimate the relationship between the holdings of selected instruments (L2, L3 and Non-Performing Loans, NPLs) and banks’ key performance and risk profile metrics, namely Credit Default Swaps (CDSs), Price-to-Book (PtB) ratios and Z-scores. It finds that larger holdings of L2 tend to be associated with higher CDSs, at least in the short run, while larger amounts of NPLs and L3 tend to characterize banks with higher CDSs, lower PtB ratios and worse Z-scores, other things being equal. |
| Keywords: | fair value accounting, level 2 instruments, level 3 instruments, non-performing loans, prudential regulation, panel data models |
| JEL: | G21 G28 C33 M41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_633_21&r= |
| By: | Masahiro Kato; Haruo Kakehi; Kenichiro McAlinn; Shota Yasui |
| Abstract: | We consider learning causal relationships under conditional moment conditions. Unlike causal inference under unconditional moment conditions, conditional moment conditions pose serious challenges for causal inference, especially in complex, high-dimensional settings. To address this issue, we propose a method that transforms conditional moment conditions to unconditional moment conditions through importance weighting using the conditional density ratio. Then, using this transformation, we propose a method that successfully approximates conditional moment conditions. Our proposed approach allows us to employ methods for estimating causal parameters from unconditional moment conditions, such as generalized method of moments, adequately in a straightforward manner. In experiments, we confirm that our proposed method performs well compared to existing methods. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01312&r= |
| By: | Ronald Richman; Mario V. W\"uthrich |
| Abstract: | Deep learning models have gained great popularity in statistical modeling because they lead to very competitive regression models, often outperforming classical statistical models such as generalized linear models. The disadvantage of deep learning models is that their solutions are difficult to interpret and explain, and variable selection is not easily possible because deep learning models solve feature engineering and variable selection internally in a nontransparent way. Inspired by the appealing structure of generalized linear models, we propose a new network architecture that shares similar features as generalized linear models, but provides superior predictive power benefiting from the art of representation learning. This new architecture allows for variable selection of tabular data and for interpretation of the calibrated deep learning model, in fact, our approach provides an additive decomposition in the spirit of Shapley values and integrated gradients. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11059&r= |
| By: | Hidalgo, Javier |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper is to describe a bootstrap, contrary to the sieve boot- strap, valid under either long memory (LM) or short memory (SM) depen- dence. One of the reasons of the failure of the sieve bootstrap in our context is that under LM dependence, the sieve bootstrap may not be able to capture the true covariance structure of the original data. We also describe and ex- amine the validity of the bootstrap scheme for the least squares estimator of the parameter in a regression model and for model specification. The moti- vation for the latter example comes from the observation that the asymptotic distribution of the test is intractable. |
| Keywords: | Long memory; bootstrap methods; aggregation; semiparametric model |
| JEL: | J1 C1 |
| Date: | 2020–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:106149&r= |
| By: | Farré, Lídia (University of Barcelona); Ortega, Francesc (Queens College, CUNY) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence supporting that gender differences in post-graduate educational choices contribute to the glass ceiling in the labor market. We study the decision to pursue an advanced degree form an internationally renowned institution, which greatly facilitates access to top jobs. Relying on a unique dataset on applications to a highly selective program that provides merit-based graduate fellowships to Spanish students, we show that women apply for the fellowships at lower rates than observationally equivalent male graduates. We also implemented a large-scale survey on current college students and show that female college graduates have stronger family ties than males, which restricts their geographical mobility and has a negative effect on their educational aspirations. Importantly, the previous pattern is reversed in STEM fields: female graduates in STEM participate in the fellowship program at equal or higher rates than comparable males. In fact, we show that female STEM students originate from more educated families, have higher academic ability, and higher educational and earnings aspirations than women in other fields. |
| Keywords: | gender, post-graduate, fellowships, family ties, geographic mobility |
| JEL: | J3 J7 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14561&r= |
| By: | Foresti, Pasquale; Napolitano, Oreste |
| Abstract: | The development of effective risk sharing mechanisms is one of the main passages for the success and longevity of a monetary union. In this paper, we study risk sharing, measured as income and consumption smoothing, in the EMU. As we employ time-varying estimations, we are able to retrieve time patterns of risk sharing for each member country and to compare them with the degree of economic asymmetry within the EMU. Other than documenting the need for stronger risk sharing mechanisms in the EMU, our results also suggest that much more attention should be dedicated to fostering homogeneity in risk sharing across member countries. We document the existence of increasing heterogeneity in the risk sharing capacity between member countries that can potentially exacerbate and amplify the impact of asymmetric shocks and further destabilize the EMU. |
| Keywords: | consumption smoothing; economic asymmetry; EMU; income smoothing; risk sharing |
| JEL: | J1 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111483&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp02&r= |
| By: | Diane Coyle (The Productivity Institute, Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge); Kaya Dreesbeimdieck (University of Cambridge); Annabel Manley (Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | Measured health output in the UK has declined sharply during the Covid-19 pandemic, despite the evident increase in some National Health Service (NHS) activities such as critical care, and the new test and trace and vaccination programmes. We identify the measurement methods applied to public services that explain the measured decline, and also explore the likely impact of changes in hospital practices during the pandemic, including increased use of technology, on healthcare productivity. We find that within NHS England the capacity constraints have contributed to substantial falls in non-Covid-19 health care activities, and argue that increased capacity in the social infrastructure of the health service is essential to enable higher productivity in an uncertain environment. |
| Keywords: | productivity, health care, NHS |
| JEL: | H51 I10 E01 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:002&r= |
| By: | Nikos Bozionelos (emlyon business school) |
| Abstract: | The study explored barriers to career progression of Chinese self-initiated expatriate (SIE) women in the United Kingdom using semi-structured interviews with two matched samples of Chinese SIE and native Caucasian British women. Double jeopardy and ethnic prominence offered the theoretical backdrop. Common gender-related career hindering factors emerged in both groups. However, no barriers due to ethnicity per se emerged for the Chinese SIE women, whilst their narrations revealed that the Chinese stereotype had rather facilitated their careers in the host country. Furthermore, they did not view self-expatriation as a particularly challenging endeavor. None of the two interpretative frameworks deployed, double jeopardy and ethnic prominence, could account for the findings. The study implies that the effects of ethnicity on self-expatriation experiences and outcomes may be contingent on SIEs' ethnic and cultural origins. In addition, the findings imply that women who self-expatriate to escape gendered opportunities in their home countries may face similar gender-related barriers in host countries. |
| Keywords: | self-initiated expatriates,Gender,Careers,double jeopardy,ethnic prominence,Chinese,Caucasian,career barriers |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03296969&r= |
| By: | Zadia M. Feliciano; Meng-Ting Chen |
| Abstract: | Puerto Rico operated as a tax haven under U.S. Internal Revenue Code (IRC) Section 936. Firms in the pharmaceutical industry accounted for approximately 50% of tax credits awarded and 20% of employment under the program. The U.S. Congress eliminated the tax exemption program in 2006, creating a natural experiment on the elimination of corporate taxation of intangible assets. We use panel data on establishments from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and a difference in difference methodology to measure the impact of the elimination of IRC Section 936 on pharmaceutical and medical devices using establishments with low, medium and high participation in the program as controls. Survival rates of all manufacturing establishments declined after the phaseout and elimination of the tax exemption program but pharmaceutical and medical devices establishments experienced an additional 6.9% decline. Approximately 50% of the 34% decline in pharmaceutical and medical devices establishments in Puerto Rico from 1995 to 2017 can be attributed to the elimination of IRC Section 936. Employment in pharmaceutical and medical devices establishments, which also declined by 34%, decreased at the same rate as that of other industries. Plant closings accounted for most of the decline in their employment. |
| JEL: | F21 F23 H25 O14 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29107&r= |
| By: | Lawrence Christiano; Hüsnü Dalgic; Armen Nurbekyan |
| Abstract: | This paper pushes back against two views about the effects of dollarization. First, there is a view that the dollar is a device by which rich countries provide business cycle insurance to emerging market (EME) countries. We find that the dollar is important for risk sharing, but the evidence suggests that it is primarily a device to shift business cycle risk across different people within individual EMEs and within rich countries rather than across countries. Second, there is a widespread view that dollarization raises the risk of systemic banking and other crises. Although we identify sources of fragility in some aspects of dollarization, the common view that financial dollarization is a source of fragility is over-stated. Our insurance view about financial dollarization and the lack of risks to financial stability emerges from a study of a large cross-country dataset, as well as case studies for Peru and Armenia. We develop a simple model which formalizes the insurance view, which is consistent with the key cross-country facts on interest rate differentials, deposit dollarization and exchange rate depreciations in recessions. |
| JEL: | F3 F4 G15 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29034&r= |
| By: | Jenny Bethaeuser (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen); Jennifer Muschol (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen) |
| Abstract: | Since the beginning of the year, almost the entire world has been thrown off course by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused health, social and economic challenges. In an international comparison it can be seen that the mortality rates vary widely between countries. This study therefore aims to investigate the quality of international healthcare systems and their potential risk factors in order to explore the differences in mortality. After the derivation of suitable variables and the collection of a widespread data set, we were able to detect with six different OLS regressions that the mortality rate significantly decreases with a higher number of hospital beds and increases with a higher proportion of elderly population (p |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Coronavirus; Cases; Deaths; Pandemic; Mortality; Healthcare System; Health Economics |
| JEL: | C12 C13 I1 I15 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202050&r= |
| By: | Yang Bai; Kuntara Pukthuanthong |
| Abstract: | We design a novel framework to examine market efficiency through out-of-sample (OOS) predictability. We frame the asset pricing problem as a machine learning classification problem and construct classification models to predict return states. The prediction-based portfolios beat the market with significant OOS economic gains. We measure prediction accuracies directly. For each model, we introduce a novel application of binomial test to test the accuracy of 3.34 million return state predictions. The tests show that our models can extract useful contents from historical information to predict future return states. We provide unique economic insights about OOS predictability and machine learning models. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02283&r= |
| By: | Davit Adunts |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the short-run effect of paternal absence due to circular migration on the socio-emotional skills of their children left behind. To address the endogeneity of the migration decision, and building on previous studies, this study focuses on children whose fathers have all engaged in circular migration. Furthermore, using quasi-exogenous variation in the timing of return migration induced by bilateral migration laws between Ukraine and Poland, I circumvent the bias related to the return migration decision. The findings of this study suggest that current paternal absence due to circular migration negatively affects the socioemotional skills of children left behind. Overall, this result suggests that circular migration is not necessarily a "triple-win" solution that benefits all involved parties. |
| Keywords: | circular migration; children left behind; perseverance skills; formation of socioemotional skills; |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp696&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The government of Estonia places a high importance on openness and transparency, both for their citizens and for regional and international partners. This is evidenced from various earlier reports on transparency and the implementation of many subsequent improvements in fiscal transparency practices. The objective of the assessment was to identify areas of fiscal risk vulnerabilities and reform priorities to ensure further improvements in transparent practices. |
| Date: | 2021–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/179&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp13&r= |
| By: | Ge-zhi Wu; Da-ming You |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the panel data of Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2019, uses the relaxation of China's margin trading and Short-Selling restrictions as the basis of quasi experimental research, and then constructs a double difference model to analyze whether the margin trading and Short-Selling will encourage enterprises to engage in green technology innovation activities. Firstly, our research results show that after the implementation of the margin trading and Short-Selling, the green technology innovation behavior of pilot companies will increase significantly. We believe that the short selling threat and pressure brought by short selling to enterprises are the main reasons for pilot enterprises to engage in green technology innovation. Secondly, the empirical results show that the implementation of margin trading and Short-Selling restrictions will significantly promote the number of green technology innovation of pilot enterprises, but will not promote the quality of green technology innovation of pilot enterprises. Furthermore, we analyze the difference of the impact of margin trading and Short-Selling restrictions on the number of green technology innovation of pilot enterprises in different periods. Finally, we find that the yield gap between financial assets and operating assets, the risk of stock price decline, management shareholding, institutional shareholding ratio, weak product market competition and bull market will affect the role of short selling in promoting green technology innovation of pilot enterprises. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11255&r= |
| By: | Nicola Curci (Bank of Italy); Marco Savegnago (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses a possible scheme for a new universal child allowance (assegno unico e universale per i figli, AUU) and evaluates its effects on income distribution (equity) and on financial disincentives to work (efficiency). The analysis, carried out using the Banca d'Italia tax-benefit microsimulation model BIMic, takes into account the principles defined in the enabling law recently approved by the Parliament and the budgetary resources set aside for this measure. The scheme envisaged in the paper differs from the proposals discussed so far in public debate about the AUU due to a significant innovation, namely the introduction of an in-work benefit component. The simulated reform would not only reduce the inequality of disposable income with respect to the current legislation scenario, but also – due to the above mentioned in-work benefit – would lessen the financial disincentives to labor market participation for potential female workers. The latter result is particularly strong for low-income households. |
| Keywords: | family policies, redistribution, equity, efficiency, microsimulation |
| JEL: | D31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_636_21&r= |
| By: | Cirolia, Liza Rose; Hailu, Tesfaye; King, Julia; da Cruz, Nuno F.; Beall, Jo |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia’s mass-scale subsidized housing delivery programme has driven the rapid expansion of middle-income, mid-rise settlements on the outskirts of Addis Ababa, requiring the provision of infrastructure to newly developed areas. In the case of the Kotari housing project, established sanitation systems were deemed inappropriate for the site, resulting in the deployment of novel technology, a Membrane Bioreactor (MBR). Such decentralized technologies contribute to the heterogenous infrastructure configurations which characterise Addis Ababa’s sanitation landscape, reflected not only in material configurations but also in how they are governed. In this paper, we use the concept of ‘infrastructure interfaces’ as an analytical device to identify the key material connection points in the system. Working across scales, we scrutinise the governance arrangements at these critical junctures: the household, the block, the condominium, and the city. Our analysis challenges established understandings of infrastructural heterogeneity driven by the private sector, either through financialized elite infrastructures or informal survivalist practices. In Kotari, the state is the driver and the target is the lower middle class. Centring the state in these infrastructure configurations provides nuance to our understanding of how heterogeneity emerges. Our methodological approach accounts for governance at various scales, providing fresh insights into the relationality of infrastructure, particularly the human/technology interface and infrastructural failures. The case shows the importance of transcending binary readings of infrastructure configurations, such as on/off grid, state/private and formal/informal. Future work on the post-network city must go beyond simply denigrating or valorising alternative modes of service delivery. |
| Keywords: | Ethiopia; decentralisation; heterogeneity; hybridity; housing; infrastructure interfaces; post-networked city; sub-Saharan Africa; urbanisation; wastewater; CI170346; Sage deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111053&r= |
| By: | Marc Oliver Rieger (University of Trier); Thorsten Hens (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH); Swiss Finance Institute); Mei Wang (WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management) |
| Abstract: | Time preferences are central to human decision making; therefore, a thorough understanding of their international differences is highly relevant. Previous measurements, however, vary widely in their methodology, from questions answered on the Likert scale to lottery-type questions. We show that these different measurements correlate to a large degree and that they have a common factor that can predict a broad spectrum of variables: the countries’ credit ratings, their innovation, gas prices (as a proxy for environmental protection), body mass index (as a proxy for health consciousness), and average years of school attendance. The resulting data on this time preference factor for N=117 countries and regions will be highly useful for further research. Our aggregation method is applicable to merge cross-cultural studies that measure the same latent construct with different methodologies. |
| Keywords: | time preferences |
| JEL: | D90 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2153&r= |
| By: | Mohamad Ebrahim Sadeghi; Morteza Khodabakhsh; Mahmood Reza Ganjipoor; Hamed Kazemipoor; Hamed Nozari |
| Abstract: | Every year, natural disasters such as earthquake, flood, hurricane and etc. impose immense financial and humane losses on governments owing to their unpredictable character and arise of emergency situations and consequently the reduction of the abilities due to serious damages to infrastructures, increases demand for logistic services and supplies. First, in this study the necessity of paying attention to locating procedures in emergency situations is pointed out and an outline for the studied case of disaster relief supply chain was discussed and the problem was validated at small scale. On the other hand, to solve this kind of problems involving three objective functions and complicated time calculation, meta-heuristic methods which yield almost optimum solutions in less time are applied. The EC method and NSGA II algorithm are among the evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithms applied in this case. In this study the aforementioned algorithm is used for solving problems at large scale. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05458&r= |
| By: | Antonis Papapantoleon; Dylan Possama\"i; Alexandros Saplaouras |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we obtain stability results for backward stochastic differential equations with jumps (BSDEs) in a very general framework. More specifically, we consider a convergent sequence of standard data, each associated to their own filtration, and we prove that the associated sequence of (unique) solutions is also convergent. The current result extends earlier contributions in the literature of stability of BSDEs and unifies several frameworks for numerical approximations of BSDEs and their implementations. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.11048&r= |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. This document reports the results of further descriptive analysis aimed at more detailed descriptions of employment trends and conditions in the 420 counties that form the Appalachian Region (the Region). Shift-share analyses for all counties, micropolitan regions, and metropolitan regions are reported in supplemental documents accompanying a project overview document. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economics, Shift Share Analysis, Appalachia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2020rp16&r= |
| By: | Mario Larch; Shawn W. Tan; Yotov V. Yotov; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | We propose a simple and flexible econometric approach to quantify ex-ante the “deep” impact of trade liberalization and the “hard” effects of protection with the empirical structural gravity model. Specifically, we argue that the difference between the estimates of border indicator variables for affected and non-affected countries can be used as a comprehensive measure of the change in bilateral trade costs in response to a hypothetical policy change. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods, we focus on the integration between the countries from the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the European Union (EU); an important policy application that has not been studied before due to lack of data. We overcome this challenge by utilizing a new dataset on trade and production that covers all EU countries and all CEFTA members (except for Kosovo). The partial equilibrium estimates that we obtain confirm the validity of our methods, while the corresponding general equilibrium effects point to significant and heterogeneous potential gains for the CEFTA countries from joining the EU. The proposed methods can also be extended to ex-post analysis and are readily applicable to other applications, e.g. “hard” Brexit. |
| Keywords: | trade costs, trade policy, structural gravity, CEFTA, EU |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9224&r= |
| By: | Kevin Pineda-Hernández (Université libre de Bruxelles, SBS-EM (CEBRIG & DULBEA) Université de Mons (humanOrg)); François Rycx (Université libre de Bruxelles, SBS-EM (CEBRIG & DULBEA) GLO, humanOrg, IRES, IZA); Mélanie Volral (Université de Mons (humanOrg) DULBEA) |
| Abstract: | Although many studies point to the significant influence of collective bargaining institutions on earnings inequalities, evidence on how these institutions shape poverty rates across developed economies remains surprisingly scarce. It would be a mistake, though, to believe that the relationship between earnings inequalities and poverty is straightforward. Indeed, whereas earnings inequalities are measured at the individual level, poverty is calculated at the household level using equivalised (disposable) incomes. Accordingly, in most developed countries poverty is not primarily an issue of the working poor. This paper explicitly addresses the relationship between collective bargaining systems and working-age poverty rates in 24 developed countries over the period 1990-2015. Using an up-to-date and fine-grained taxonomy of bargaining systems and relying on state-of-the-art panel data estimation techniques, we find that countries with more centralised and/or coordinated bargaining systems display significantly lower working-age poverty rates than countries with largely or fully decentralized systems. However, this result only holds in a post-tax benefit scenario. Controlling for countryfixed effects and endogeneity, our estimates indeed suggest that the poverty-reducing effect of collective bargaining institutions stems from the political strength of trade unions in promoting public social spending rather than from any direct effect on earnings inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Collective bargaining systems, poverty rates, social security expenditures, panel data, advanced economies |
| JEL: | C23 C26 I32 I38 J51 J52 |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2021019&r= |
| By: | Jančoková, Martina; Pástor, Ľuboš; Fabo, Brian; Kempf, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | We compare the findings of central bank researchers and academic economists regarding the macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing (QE). We find that central bank papers find QE to be more effective than academic papers do. Central bank papers report larger effects of QE on output and inflation. They also report QE effects on output that are more significant, both statistically and economically, and they use more positive language in the abstract. Central bank researchers who report larger QE effects on output experience more favorable career outcomes. A survey of central banks reveals substantial involvement of bank management in research production. JEL Classification: A11, E52, E58, G28 |
| Keywords: | career concerns, central bank, economic research, QE, quantitative easing |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212584&r= |
| By: | Asha Elizabeth Chhetri; Thokchom Asha Sinha |
| Abstract: | ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has been considered as a powerful tool in bringing efficient teaching-learning in educational settings. Efficiency in a task can only be brought if there is positive attitude and competence towards that task. This paper aims to measure validity and reliability of ICT attitude and competence instruments for students studying during the session 2017-18. A pilot study was conducted on 50 class-X students of four high schools in Imphal West, Manipur for measuring validity of self-made ICT Competence instrument. For checking the reliability of ICTAttitude Scale developed by Kofi Ayebi Arthur (2010), test-retest method was adopted. Self-made ICT Competence instrument obtained an acceptable valid result. The test-retest result for ICT-Attitude Scale also gave an acceptable reliability value of 0.96. Key Words: Valid and reliable, ICT-Attitude, ICT Competence, instrument Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-37-04&r= |
| By: | Fernandes, Cecilia Melo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation uncertainty and sheds light on how central bank information shocks operate. The paper finds that ECB communication of new outlook information not only reduces professional forecasters’ disagreement (i.e., the cross-sectional dispersion of their average point forecasts of inflation) but also makes forecasters less uncertain about their own beliefs, thus reducing ex-ante average individual uncertainty. By combining and exploiting these types of ex-ante inflation uncertainty, results suggest that central bank information acts as a “coordination device” able to influence opinions and actions. Most importantly, it generates a “stabilizer effect” by substantially decreasing the dispersion among the inflation point forecasts, which converge towards their unconditional aggregate mean. The results of this paper not only help to explain the impact of new central bank information, but they are also useful for policymakers to define a communication strategy that attenuates ex-ante inflation uncertainty in the most effective way. JEL Classification: D83, E52, E58, E65, G14 |
| Keywords: | central bank communication, euro area, ex-ante inflation uncertainty, inflation expectations |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212582&r= |
| By: | Junjie Hu; Wolfgang Karl H\"ardle |
| Abstract: | We study the cross-sectional returns of the firms connected by news articles. A conservative algorithm is proposed to tackle the type-I error in identifying firm tickers and the well-defined directed news networks of S&P500 stocks are formed based on a modest assumption. After controlling for many other effects, we find strong evidence for the comovement effect between news-linked firms' stock returns and reversal effect from lead stock return on 1-day ahead follower stock return, however, returns of lead stocks provide only marginal predictability on follower stock returns. Furthermore, both econometric and portfolio test reveals that network degree provides robust and significant cross-sectional predictability on monthly stock returns, and the type of linkages also matters for portfolio construction. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05721&r= |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu; Tuomas Pekkarinen; Kjell G. Salvanes; Matti Sarvimäki |
| Abstract: | Upon assuming power for the first time in 1935, the Norwegian Labour Party delivered on its promise of a major schooling reform. The reform raised minimum instruction time in less developed rural areas and boosted the resources available to rural schools, reducing class size and increasing teacher salaries. We document that cohorts more intensively affected by the reform significantly increased their education and experienced higher labor income. Our main result is that the schooling reform also substantially increased support for the Norwegian Labour Party in subsequent elections. This additional support persisted for several decades and was pivotal in maintaining support for the social democratic coalition in Norway. These results are not driven by the direct impact of education and are not explained by higher turnout, or greater attention or resources from the Labour Party targeted towards the municipalities most affected by the reform. Rather, our evidence suggests that cohorts that benefited from the schooling reform, and their parents, rewarded the party for delivering a major reform that was beneficial to them. |
| JEL: | I28 J26 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29095&r= |
| By: | Fernando E. Alvarez; Katarína Borovičková; Robert Shimer |
| Abstract: | We develop an estimator and tests of a discrete time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of duration with unobserved heterogeneity. We allow for competing risks, observable characteristics, and censoring, and we use linear GMM, making estimation and inference straightforward. With repeated spell data, our estimator is consistent and robust to the unknown shape of the frailty distribution. We apply our estimator to the duration of price spells in weekly store data from IRI. We find substantial unobserved heterogeneity, accounting for a large fraction of the decrease in the Kaplan-Meier hazard with elapsed duration. Still, we show that the estimated baseline hazard rate is decreasing and a homogeneous firm model can accurately capture the response of the economy to a monetary policy shock even if there is significant strategic complementarity in pricing. Using competing risks and spell-specific observable characteristics, we separately estimate the model for regular and temporary price changes and find that the MPH structure describes regular price changes better than temporary ones. |
| JEL: | C14 C41 E31 E50 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29112&r= |
| By: | Marius Faber |
| Abstract: | Migration has long been considered one of the key mechanisms through which labor markets adjust to economic shocks. In this paper, we analyze the migration response of American workers to two of the most important shocks that hit US manufacturing since the late 1990s – Chinese import competition and the introduction of industrial robots. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure across US local labor markets over time, we show that robots caused a sizable reduction in population size, while Chinese imports did not. We rationalize these results in two steps. First, we provide evidence that negative employment spillovers outside manufacturing, caused by robots but not by Chinese imports, are an important mechanism for the different migration responses triggered by the two shocks. Next, we present a model where workers are geographically mobile and compete with either machines or foreign labor in the completion of tasks. The model highlights that two key dimensions along which the shocks differ – the cost savings they provide and the degree of complementarity between directly and indirectly exposed industries – can explain their disparate employment effects outside manufacturing and, in turn, the differential migration response. |
| Keywords: | Migration, employment, technology, trade. |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2124&r= |
| By: | Adam Copeland; Darrell Duffie; Yilin Yang |
| Abstract: | The Federal Reserve's "balance-sheet normalization," which reduced aggregate reserves between 2017 and September 2019, increased repo rate distortions, the severity of rate spikes, and intraday payment timing stresses, culminating with a significant disruption in Treasury repo markets in mid-September 2019. We show that repo rates rose above efficient-market levels when the total reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve by the largest repo-active bank holding companies declined and that repo rate spikes are strongly associated with delayed intraday payments of reserves to these large bank holding companies. Intraday payment timing stresses are magnified by early-morning settlement of Treasury security issuances. Substantially higher aggregate levels of reserves than existed in the period leading up to September 2019 would likely have eliminated most or all of these payment timing stresses and repo rate spikes. |
| JEL: | G12 G2 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29090&r= |
| By: | Horrell, Sara; Humphries, Jane; Weisdorf, Jacob |
| Abstract: | Malthus believed that rising real wages encouraged earlier marriage, higher fertility and a growing population. But diminishing returns in agriculture meant that an organic economy could not keep pace. Excess labour and rising food prices drove wages down and brought population growth to a halt. Studies testing this hypothesis have focussed on the relationship between population growth and men’s wages, typically overlooking women and children’s economic activities and influence on demographic outcomes. New daily and annual wage series, including women and children, enable these missing actors to be incorporated into a more complete account of Malthus’s hypothesis. New findings emerge: the demographic reaction to wage changes was gendered. Early-modern bachelors responded to rising male wages by marrying earlier, whereas spinsters responded to rising female wages by delaying marriage. Our evidence suggests that women played a key role in England’s low- fertility demographic regime and escape from the Malthusian trap. More tentatively, we consider the demographic regime in medieval England. Although marriage was related to earnings, the size of the population was a forceful determinant of economic outcomes. While superficially similar in terms of the prevalence of late marriage and low nuptiality, this regime was consolidated by poverty and social control absent the female agency of the later era. |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2020–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:105553&r= |
| By: | Giuseppe Fiori (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System); Filippo Scoccianti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses over two decades of Italian survey data on business managers’ expectations to measure subjective firm-level uncertainty and quantify its economic effects. We document that firm-level uncertainty persists for a few years and varies across firms’ demographic characteristics. Uncertainty induces long-lasting economic effects over a broad array of real and financial variables. The source of uncertainty matters with firms responding only to downside uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about future adverse outcomes. Economy-wide uncertainty, constructed aggregating firmlevel uncertainty, is countercyclical but uncorrelated with typical proxies in the literature, and accounts for a sizable amount of GDP variation during crises. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty, business cycles, investment, expectations, cash holdings, downside uncertainty |
| JEL: | D24 E22 E24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_630_21&r= |
| By: | Mireia Borrell-Porta; Valentina Contreras; Joan Costa-i-Font |
| Abstract: | Does employment during motherhood change peoples preferences? We study whether the experience of employment during motherhood exerts an effect on attitudes towards gender norms, and more specifically, attitudes towards the impact of women’s employment on children’s wellbeing (which proxy traditional gender attitudes). Drawing on a large, representative and longitudinal data and an instrumental variable (IV) strategy that exploits a Bartik instrument for employment, we find that, that non-mothers who work and mothers who do not work are more likely to agree that pre-school children suffer if mothers work, which we proxy as having more traditional views. However, this is not the case when women experience both working and motherhood it does not significantly change women's attitudes. These results suggest that exogenous changes in employment during motherhood confirm individuals priors, and point towards the critical role of early life value formation. That is, employment during motherhood is not a “value changing experience” but rather a “value preserving experience”. Hence, the so-called ‘motherhood penalty’ cannot be fully explained by a change in attitudes after employment during motherhood. |
| Keywords: | attitude formation, value changing experiences, confirmation bias, women employment attitudes, women employment after maternity, later life attitudes, children |
| JEL: | Z10 J22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9222&r= |
| By: | Evan Saltzman; Ashley Swanson; Daniel Polsky |
| Abstract: | We study how inertia interacts with market power and adverse selection in managed competition health insurance markets. We use consumer-level data to estimate a model of the California ACA exchange, in which four firms dominate the market and risk adjustment is in place to manage selection. We estimate high inertia costs, equal to 44% of average premiums. Although eliminating inertia exacerbates adverse selection, it significantly reduces market power such that average premiums decrease 13.2% and annual per-capita welfare increases $902. These effects are substantially smaller in settings without market power and/or risk adjustment. Moreover, converting the ACA's premium-linked subsidies to vouchers mitigates the impact of inertia by reducing market power, whereas reducing high consumer churn in the ACA exchanges increases the impact of inertia by enhancing market power. The impact of inertia is not sensitive to provider network generosity, despite greater consumer attachment to plans with more differentiated provider networks. |
| JEL: | G22 I11 I13 L1 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29097&r= |
| By: | Qinkai Chen; Christian-Yann Robert |
| Abstract: | Predicting stock prices from textual information is a challenging task due to the uncertainty of the market and the difficulty understanding the natural language from a machine's perspective. Previous researches focus mostly on sentiment extraction based on single news. However, the stocks on the financial market can be highly correlated, one news regarding one stock can quickly impact the prices of other stocks. To take this effect into account, we propose a new stock movement prediction framework: Multi-Graph Recurrent Network for Stock Forecasting (MGRN). This architecture allows to combine the textual sentiment from financial news and multiple relational information extracted from other financial data. Through an accuracy test and a trading simulation on the stocks in the STOXX Europe 600 index, we demonstrate a better performance from our model than other benchmarks. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.10941&r= |
| By: | Sabine Gralka; Klaus Wohlrabe |
| Abstract: | Updating the study by Seiler and Wohlrabe (2013) we use archetypoid analysis to classify top economists. The approach allows us to identify typical characteristics of extreme (archetypal) values in a multivariate data set. In contrast to its predecessor, the archetypal analysis, archetypoids always represent actual observed units in the data. Using bibliometric data from 776 top economists we identify four archetypoids. These types represent solid, low, top and diligent performer. Each economist is assigned to one or more of these archetypoids. |
| Keywords: | archetypoid analysis, classification, RePEc, economists |
| JEL: | C38 I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9216&r= |
| By: | Ly Dai Hung (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the dependence pattern of economic growth on external debts supply by accounting for the safety of debts, measured by the sovereign debts rating. The method of cross-section regression is based on a sample of 145 advanced and developing economies with averaged data over 1990-2019 period. The pattern of economic growth follows an U-shaped curve, for which the growth rate is first decreasing then increasing on the external debts supply. An possible explaination can rely on the sovereign debts rating. For low supply of external debts, a higher supply of debts reduces the debts rating, which, in turn, lowers the economic growth rate. But for high enough supply of debts, more debts raise their rating, then, improving the growth rate. These results are robust on controlling for various determinants of economic growth and on the fixed-effect panel regression. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth,Cross-Section Regression,Panel Regression,External Debts |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03277527&r= |
| By: | an Ha Truong (VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Purpose: As governments force electricity producers to use more renewable energy sources, over a hundred thermal power plants in high-income countries turned to biomass as a partial or complete replacement for coal. Is the co-firing technology appropriate for Vietnam? Method: The technology assessment study is conducted by building an integrated lifecycle model of the sector, tracking material and financial flows from fuel sourcing to airborne emissions, simulating the economics, environmental and social implications of blending 5% of rice straw in two different existing coal power plants in Vietnam. Findings: The business value of co-firing is positive –straw is cheaper than coal–. It is likely not large enough to motivate the stakeholders. Co-firing creates an external social benefit by reducing air-borne pollution and creating jobs. It reduces the pollution caused by open field straw burning. We found the external social benefit to be several times larger than the private business value. Within that external benefit, the social value of avoided SO2, PM2.5 and NOx emissions dominates the social value of avoided CO2 emissions. The net job creation effect is positive: collecting straw creates more employment than using less coal destroys. Originality and limitations: This is the first technology assessment of co-firing biomass in coal power plants in Vietnam and one of the first for a subtropical middle-income country. The study only considers rice straw, and it does not address the role of government nor the biomass market functioning. Conclusion: The price of coal is the primary determinant of co-firing business value. There is an empirical economic justification for a public intervention to promote co-firing biomass in Vietnam. Local air quality goals, rather than greenhouse gas reduction policy, can justify such regulations. |
| Keywords: | Biomass cofiring,Emission control,Coal power,Lifecycle Assessment LCA,Technology assessment |
| Date: | 2021–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03277278&r= |
| By: | Dossche, Maarten; Gazzani, Andrea; Lewis, Vivien |
| Abstract: | Labor productivity is more procyclical in OECD countries with lower employment volatility. To capture this new stylized fact, we propose a business cycle model with employment adjustment costs, variable hours and labor effort. We show that, in our model with variable effort, greater labor market frictions are associated with procyclical labor productivity as well as stable employment. In contrast, the constant-effort model fails to replicate the observed cross-country pattern in the data. By implication, labor market deregulation has a greater effect on the cyclicality of labor productivity and on the relative volatility of employment when effort can vary. |
| Keywords: | effort,hours,labor adjustment,labor market deregulation,labor productivity,structural reform |
| JEL: | E30 E50 E60 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:222021&r= |
| By: | Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Sara Pinoli (Bank of Italy); Paola Rossi (Bank of Italy); Alessandro Scopelliti (European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics; University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of diversifying funding sources on the financing conditions for firms. We exploit a regulatory reform that took place in Italy in 2012, i.e. the introduction of ‘minibonds’, which opened a new market-based funding opportunity for unlisted firms. Using the Italian Credit Register, we investigate the impact of minibond issuance on bank credit conditions for issuer firms, both at the firm-bank and firm level. We compare new loans granted to issuer firms with new loans concurrently granted to similar non-issuer firms. We find that issuer firms obtain lower interest rates on bank loans of the same maturity than non-issuer firms do, suggesting an improvement in their bargaining power with banks. In addition, issuer firms reduce the amount of used bank credit but increase the overall amount of available external funds, pointing to a substitution with bank credit and to a diversification of corporate funding sources. Studying their ex-post performance, we find that issuer firms expand their total assets and fixed assets, and also raise their leverage. |
| Keywords: | bank credit, capital markets, minibonds, loan pricing, SME finance |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2155&r= |
| By: | Gianluca Cafiso; Giulia Rivolta |
| Abstract: | The amount of credit in the economy is a heterogeneous aggregate that can be analyzed across different dimensions. Considering such dimensions provides insights into the effect of monetary policy interventions because the credit components are observed to respond differently. Several possible motivations are behind such a differential response and those relate to either demand and supply factors intrinsic to the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Our objective is to unveil such a differential response across a couple of relevant dimensions and discuss the possible causes behind what observed. The analysis refers to the US and is based on a vector auto-regression estimated using Bayesian techniques and identified with a combination of sign and zero-restrictions. |
| Keywords: | bank loans, non-bank loans, monetary interventions, households, corporate business, non-corporate business, Bayesian VAR |
| JEL: | E44 E51 G20 G21 C11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9194&r= |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | In 2018, average household income before accounting for means-tested transfers and federal taxes was $22,500 among households in the lowest income quintile and $321,700 among those in the highest quintile. CBO estimates that, after accounting for the effects of transfers and taxes, average income among the lowest and highest quintiles was $37,700 and $243,900, respectively. Between 1979 and 2018, average income, both before and after means-tested transfers and federal taxes, grew in all quintiles, but it increased most in the highest quintile. |
| JEL: | H20 H24 H50 J30 |
| Date: | 2021–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:57061&r= |
| By: | Emily Breza; Fatima Cody Stanford; Marcella Alsan; Burak Alsan; Abhijit Banerjee; Arun G. Chandrasekhar; Sarah Eichmeyer; Traci Glushko; Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham; Kelly Holland; Emily Hoppe; Mohit Karnani; Sarah Liegl; Tristan Loisel; Lucy Ogbu-Nwobodo; Benjamin A. Olken; Carlos Torres; Pierre-Luc Vautrey; Erica Warner; Susan Wootton; Esther Duflo |
| Abstract: | During the COVID-19 epidemic, many health professionals started using mass communication on social media to relay critical information and persuade individuals to adopt preventative health behaviors. Our group of clinicians and nurses developed and recorded short video messages to encourage viewers to stay home for the Thanksgiving and Christmas Holidays. We then conducted a two-stage clustered randomized controlled trial in 820 counties (covering 13 States) in the United States of a large-scale Facebook ad campaign disseminating these messages. In the first level of randomization, we randomly divided the counties into two groups: high intensity and low intensity. In the second level, we randomly assigned zip codes to either treatment or control such that 75% of zip codes in high intensity counties received the treatment, while 25% of zip codes in low intensity counties received the treatment. In each treated zip code, we sent the ad to as many Facebook subscribers as possible (11,954,109 users received at least one ad at Thanksgiving and 23,302,290 users received at least one ad at Christmas). The first primary outcome was aggregate holiday travel, measured using mobile phone location data, available at the county level: we find that average distance travelled in high-intensity counties changed by -0.993 percentage points (95% CI -1.616, -0.371, p-value 0.002) the three days before each holiday. The second primary outcome was COVID-19 infection at the zip-code level: COVID-19 infections recorded in the two-week period starting five days post-holiday declined by 3.5 percent (adjusted 95% CI [-6.2 percent, -0.7 percent], p-value 0.013) in intervention zip codes compared to control zip codes. |
| JEL: | D83 I12 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29021&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Crouzet; Janice C. Eberly |
| Abstract: | In recent years, measured TFP growth in the US has declined. We argue that two forces contributed to this decline: the mismeasurement of intangible capital, and rising markups. Markups affect input shares, while intangibles omitted from measures of investment affect measured capital growth, each potentially generating downward bias in measured TFP growth. Most importantly, when both forces are simultaneously present, their effects reinforce each other and amplify the downward bias in measured TFP growth. Using input-output data, we estimate that this mechanism could account for one-third to two-thirds of the decline in measured TFP growth. |
| JEL: | D24 D4 E01 E22 G31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29109&r= |
| By: | Zihao Wang; Kun Li; Steve Q. Xia; Hongfu Liu |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effectiveness of different machine learning methodologies in predicting economic cycles. We identify the deep learning methodology of Bi-LSTM with Autoencoder as the most accurate model to forecast the beginning and end of economic recessions in the U.S. We adopt commonly-available macro and market-condition features to compare the ability of different machine learning models to generate good predictions both in-sample and out-of-sample. The proposed model is flexible and dynamic when both predictive variables and model coefficients vary over time. It provided good out-of-sample predictions for the past two recessions and early warning about the COVID-19 recession. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.10980&r= |
| By: | Marta Bernardini (Bank of Italy); Paolo Massaro (Bank of Italy); Francesca Pepe (Bank of Italy); Francesco Tocco (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Bank of Italy data managers check the market notices published daily by the Italian Stock Exchange (Borsa Italiana) and select those of interest to update the Bank of Italy's Securities Database. This activity is time-consuming and prone to errors should a data manager overlook a relevant notice. In this paper we describe the implementation of a supervised model to automatically select the market notices. The model outperforms the manual approach used by data managers and can therefore be implemented in the regular process to update the Securities Database. |
| Keywords: | machine learning, Securities Database, automatic selection, Italian Stock Exchange |
| JEL: | C18 C81 G23 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_632_21&r= |
| By: | Jean-Philippe Bouchaud |
| Abstract: | We attempt to reconcile Gabaix and Koijen's (GK) recent Inelastic Market Hypothesis with the order-driven view of markets that emerged within the microstructure literature in the past 20 years. We review the most salient empirical facts and arguments that give credence to the idea that market price fluctuations are mostly due to order flow, whether informed or non-informed. We show that the Latent Liquidity Theory of price impact makes a precise prediction for GK's multiplier $M$, which measures by how many dollars, on average, the market value of a company goes up if one buys one dollar worth of its stocks. Our central result is that $M$ increases with the volatility of the stock and decreases with the fraction of the market cap. that is traded daily. We discuss several empirical results suggesting that the lion's share of volatility is due to trading activity. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00242&r= |
| By: | Paula Walk; Isabell Braunger; Josephine Semb; Carolin Brodtmann; Pao-Yu Oei; Claudia Kemfert |
| Abstract: | For climate change mitigation a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels such as coal is necessary. This has far-reaching gender-specific consequences. This paper presents a systematic map of the literature that examines the impact of historical coal phase-out processes on women and their role in these processes. The search process consists of screening 2,816 abstracts and reading 247 full-text studies. The analysis of the 73 publications ultimately included in the systematic map shows that past coal phase-outs meant, both opportunities (e.g. increased labour market participation) as well as burdens for women (e.g. double burden of job and household). It becomes clear that agency within coal transitions was also gendered. For example, it was difficult for women to gain access to union structures, which led them to organise themselves into grassroots movements. Our research shows that policies aiming for a just sustainability transition should always be explicitly gender-responsive. However, the impact of sustainability transitions on women's lives remains largely under-researched. Therefore, we propose a research agenda based on our findings containing six key issues that need to be addressed scientifically. |
| Keywords: | Gender, Coal Phase-Out, Just Transition, Systematic Map |
| JEL: | O13 Q52 B54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1963&r= |
| By: | Mansell, Robin |
| Abstract: | Innovation in digital technologies is central to contemporary debates about the need for policy and regulatory adjustment in response to the consequences of the centrality of these technologies in contemporary societies. Christopher Freeman's research in relation to changes in techno-economic paradigm and, specifically, in relation to the information and communication technology (ICT) paradigm, cautioned that assessments of these changes needed to go beyond market dynamics to examine social, cultural and political issues. In this paper several predominant themes in his work are foregrounded – the ambiguity of changes within the ICT paradigm; the role of guiding principles in influencing expectations about societal outcomes; and the importance of political factors in shaping the consequences of technological innovation. These three themes are then deployed in a discussion of recent innovations – two technical (5G mobile networks and artificial intelligence-as-a-service) and one institutional (proposals for changes in the international taxation regime in response to claims that the existing regime is inappropriate in the face of global online service provision). In each instance, the aim is to illustrate how following Freeman by giving attention to the themes operates as an important guide to analysis of adjustments to novel deployments of digital technology. The conclusion emphasizes the value of Freeman's contributions to shaping research agendas that acknowledge the need to humanize technology, to consider alternatives to taken-for-granted principles and practices, and to take into account the role of political power in tandem with concentrated economic power. |
| Keywords: | ICT paradigm; innovation; datafication; 5G network; artificial intelligence; taxation; Elsevier Covid Relief Fund |
| JEL: | H00 P16 |
| Date: | 2021–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111571&r= |
| By: | Heidt, Margareta |
| Abstract: | Digital transformation has established itself as an omnipresent term in the new millennium. Often considered synonymous with the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution, the term describes the convergence of information technology and the ubiquity of data in private life as well as in business and social lives. Inherent to the term "revolution" is radical change and the upheaval of existing processes and relationships. Translated into a business context, revolution leads to the transformation of business models and established work processes as well as the increasing dependence on data and new technologies. In times of digital transformation, managers and organizational decision-makers are faced with constant, potentially business-critical, decisions regarding these new technologies and the maintenance of information and data security. The analysis of management decisions, therefore, plays a crucial role in comprehending and researching digital transformation. This dissertation, therefore, seeks to improve our understanding of decision-making processes regarding the adoption of cloud computing solutions and data protection measures as well as investments in information technology (IT) security in primarily small and medium-sized enterprises. Article A examines the influence of status quo bias and reference dependency in the decision to adopt cloud computing solutions. Based on the tenets of prospect theory, findings suggest that rather inexperienced decision-makers are taking their evaluation of the existing technology more into account when assessing a cloud-based replacement technology. As a consequence, status quo thinking leads to a more negative assessment of the new technology, which hinders its potentially beneficial introduction to the organizational IT service architecture. Article B investigates decision-making processes related to end-user data protection measures and the impact of psychological ownership on the motivation to protect data. In a questionnaire study and based on the protection motivation theory, the influence of psychological ownership on the decision-making behavior of individuals in both private and work contexts is analyzed. The results demonstrate that psychological ownership exerts a stronger impact on the protection motivation of participants in a private context. The analysis further indicates that employees partly relinquish their responsibility regarding security responses to protect data in their work context. Fostering feelings of psychological ownership could possibly counteract such detrimental effects and improve the adoption of data protection measures in a work context. In Article C, the previously demonstrated cognitive and behavioral aspects of decision-making are contextualized into a holistic conceptual framework. Based on a comprehensive literature analysis and an interview study, this study finds that decisions regarding IT security in companies are influenced by organizational, economic, environmental, cognitive, and behavioral aspects. The literature analysis further demonstrates that existing research still emphasizes economic aspects based on the assumption of purely rational decision-makers. Studies that shed light on IT security decisions from a behavioral, environmental or organizational perspective are significantly less frequent, although the analysis of the expert interviews emphasizes the influence of these aspects. Article D validates that decision-makers in companies are influenced by a variety of aspects when making investment decisions in IT security. The studies of both Article D and Article E aim at decision-makers from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), since an in-depth literature review of existing research in the area of organizational IT security indicates that organizational IT security in SMEs has been largely neglected. The analysis of expert interviews conducted with SME decision-makers, however, indicates that implications of existing research can be transferred only to a limited extent due to unique constraints and their influence on decisions in the SME context. The studies, therefore, investigate and validate the impact of these SME-specific constraints regarding IT security decisions. The findings imply that invest-ment decisions with regard to organizational IT security are strongly influenced by SME-specific characteristics such as insufficient IT budget planning, undocumented processes, or multiple roles due to lack of resources. Consequently, this dissertation provides valuable insights for both practice and research regarding typical and frequent decision-making processes in the context of digital transformation. In particular, this study examines the influence of biases and non-rational aspects in the decision-making process regarding new technologies or measures to ensure their security as well as the effects of SME-specific constraints demonstrate and emphasizes the need for further behavioral research in technology adoption and IT security. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:127806&r= |
| By: | Blesse, Sebastian; Bordignon, Massimo; Boyer, Pierre C.; Carapella, Piergiorgio; Heinemann, Friedrich; Janeba, Eckhard; Raj, Anasuya |
| Abstract: | Using data from a unique survey of members of parliaments in France, Germany and Italy in 2018, we estimate the effects of three dimensions on EU and euro area fiscal reform preferences: nationality, political ideology, and populism. We predict and confirm that a German populist party on the right is most opposed to a more developed European fiscal union, while a non-populist politician on the political left in France or Italy is most integrationist. Furthermore, the relative position of French and Italian policymakers is issue dependent and the Left dimension outweighs the German dimension in two out of seven reform issues. Finally, populism intensifies the polarizing impact of national interests. |
| Keywords: | Euro Area Reforms,National Parliament,Survey,European Integration,Populist Parties,Next Generation EU |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:21055&r= |
| By: | Cristina Borra; Libertad González; David Patiño |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of maternal age on infant health. Age at birth has been increasing for the past several decades in many countries, and correlations show that health at birth is worse for children born to older mothers. In order to identify causal effects, we exploit school entry cutoffs and the empirical finding that women who are older for their cohort in school tend to give birth later. In Spain, children born in December start school a year earlier than those born the following January, despite being essentially the same age. We show that as a result, January-born women finish school later and are (several months) older when they marry and when they have their first child. We find no effect on educational attainment. We then compare the health at birth of the children of women born in January versus the previous December, using administrative, population-level data, and following a regression discontinuity design. We find small and insignificant effects on average weight at birth, but the children of January-born mothers are more likely to have very low birthweight. We interpret our results as suggestive of a causal effect of maternal age on infant health, concentrated in the left tail of the birthweight distribution, with older mothers more likely to give birth to (very) premature babies. |
| Keywords: | maternal age, infant health, school cohort |
| JEL: | I12 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1276&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Dominica is among the countries most vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change. During 1997-2017, it was the country with highest GDP losses to climate-related natural disasters and ranked in the top 10 percent among 182 countries for climate-related fatalities. Following a huge devastation, owing to back-to-back major storms in 2015 and 2017, Dominica announced its intention to become the first disaster resilient nation. In 2019, it was agreed with the government that the Fund, in consultation and collaboration with other development partners, would provide support for preparing a Disaster Resilience Strategy (DRS), a comprehensive plan including policies, cost, and financing to build resilience against natural disasters. |
| Date: | 2021–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/182&r= |
| By: | Terrence Hendershott (University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business); Dmitry Livdan (University of California, Berkeley); Norman Schürhoff (University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)) |
| Abstract: | We examine technology enabling dispersed investors to directly trade with each other in over-the-counter markets via the largest electronic trading platform in corporate bonds starting Open Trading (OT) to allow investor-to-investor trading. Over our six-year sample, OT steadily grew to win 12% of trades on the platform, with 2% being investor-to-investor trading, 3% being dealers trading with new clients, and 7% being new liquidity providers acting like dealers. This suggests that investors in corporate bonds prefer intermediation to direct trade. However, OT can enable new dealers to compete in liquidity provision. OT's steady growth facilitates measuring its effect on investors, dealers, and competition to provide liquidity using an auction model. |
| Keywords: | Over-the-counter markets, electronic trading, request for quote, open trading, corporate bonds, dealers |
| JEL: | G12 G14 G19 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2143&r= |
| By: | Gaëlle Capitaine,; Frédéric Ahado. |
| Abstract: | Les contrats d’assurance-vie collective sont en majeure partie des produits de retraite apportant aux bénéficiaires un complément de revenu au moment de leur liquidation. Le marché regroupe plusieurs catégories de contrats représentant un total de 123 milliards d’euros d’encours en 2020 contre 121 milliards d’euros en 2019 . La catégorie « des contrats collectifs en cas de vie », qui représente 3/4 des encours des contrats d’assurance-vie à dominante retraite , est la plus importante . À périmètre constant (net des transferts vers les Organismes de retraite professionnelle supplémentaire - ORPS), le taux de revalorisation moyen des fonds euros des contrats collectifs à dominante retraite (hors retraite à points) est en baisse à 1,86% en 2020 contre 2,02% en 2019 (net de prélèvements sur encours et avant prélèvements sociaux). Le niveau de provisionnement de la participation aux bénéfices est quant à lui stable et s’établit à 2,3% des encours en 2020 pour ces catégories de contrat. Les taux de revalorisation des contrats collectifs en cas de vie s’établissent en moyenne à 1,94 % en 2020 et ceux des contrats PERP demeurent les plus faibles du marché à 1,09 %. Ces différences s’expliquent en grande partie par des contraintes de taux techniques très variables selon les catégories de contrats. Les PERP ont notamment un taux technique nul. S’agissant des garanties octroyées, le taux technique moyen rattaché aux contrats d’assurance-vie collectifs à dominante retraite poursuit sa baisse : 1,24% en 2020 contre 1,32% en 2018. Cependant, dans le contexte de baisse des rendements obligataires en 2020, ce taux constitue une contrainte de plus en plus significative pour les organismes. Enfin, le taux de chargement de gestion des contrats payé par les assurés augmente à 0,47% en moyenne contre 0,43% en 2019 . |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:analys:127&r= |
| By: | Lizhe Xu |
| Abstract: | "Since the attacks of September 11, 2001, terrorism becomes increasingly intense, and the security of international society and people are under the growing threat. In the meantime, the media rapidly develop, especially in the field of new media. A mutually utilize relationship between media and terrorism formed gradually. On the one hand, terrorism needs the media to propagate their ideas; on the other hand, the media desire to help in competition for ratings, revenue and prestige by reports of vast source of sensational, visually compelling news stories. The relationship between terrorism, insurgency and the media has long applied politicians, commentators and academics, some of them argued that the media may encourage terrorist activities, however this view was fought against by other people who stand in opposite position (Cottle, 2006, p.157). This article will explore the relationship between terrorism and media, in particular as the speedy growth of new media, the interrelation between terrorism and media has become more and more inseparable. " Key Words: media, terrorists, publicity, oxygen, terrorism |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-38-05&r= |
| By: | Cyrille Lenoel; Garry Young |
| Abstract: | We set out a framework that can be used to evaluate policies intended to mitigate the economic effects of Covid-19. In our framework shocks that affect only certain sectors can spill over to other sectors because of input-output linkages and limited income insurance. We show that policies such as the furlough scheme can prevent the sharp rises in unemployment that might arise in the absence of the scheme, and illustrate how such policies can be evaluated using the framework. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, recession, sectoral model, input-output |
| JEL: | E00 E12 E20 E23 E24 E30 E52 E60 E62 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:531&r= |
| By: | Charles Ka Yui Leung; (single author only) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides some background for the book, Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics. It gives an overview of different chapters and how various themes and ideas can be connected. Directions for future research are also discussed. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1137&r= |
| By: | Joshua S. Gans |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how a firm's choice of the type of experiment impacts on its potential exploitation of new technological opportunities. It does so in the context of the failure of successful firms (or disruption) where the literature has informally suggested that firms undertake errors in experimental choice (in particular, choosing experiments that involved biased signals). It is shown that firms will generically choose biased over unbiased experiments even when there are no differences in their relative costs. This is done to better inform decisions regarding the exploitation of technological opportunities. It is shown that these choices can differ between incumbents and entrants based on their fundamentals as well as because of the anticipation of competition between them. |
| JEL: | L26 O32 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29091&r= |
| By: | Sharma, Rajesh; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Sinha, Avik; Vo, Xuan Vinh |
| Abstract: | The growing size of stock market in the South Asian countries might have contributed to raising the level of industrial production and energy consumption. This upturned energy usage might have widened the scope for carbon emissions because these nations heavily rely on fossil fuels. In this milieu, therefore, in the present study, we assessed the impacts of stock market development, per capita income, trade expansion, renewable energy solutions, and technological innovations on carbon intensity in the four South Asia countries from 1990-2016. The empirical results based on the CS-ARDL approach revealed that stock market development, per capita income, and trade expansion invigorated carbon intensity in the South Asian countries. On the contrary, the increased usage of renewable energy solutions and technological advancement helped in reducing the energy-led carbon intensity. Further, the interaction of stock market with renewable energy, and subsequently with technological advancement delivered insignificant coefficients, which indicates the inefficacy of renewable energy and technological advancement in regulating stock market-led carbon intensity during the study period. Therefore, by considering the need for complementarity between economic growth and environmental targets, we proposed a multipronged policy framework, which may help the selected countries to attain the Sustainable Development Goals, with a special focus on SDG 7, 8, 9, and 13. |
| Keywords: | Stock Market Development; Carbon Intensity; South Asian Countries; Technological Innovations; Renewable Energy; CS-ARDL |
| JEL: | Q2 Q3 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108925&r= |
| By: | Eskander, Shaikh; Fankhauser, Samuel |
| Abstract: | We present empirical evidence of the international emissions impact from climate change legislation in 98 countries between 1997 and 2017, using data from Climate Change Laws of the World. Unlike traditional measures of carbon leakage, we focus on net carbon imports, that is, the difference between consumption and production emissions. Using different estimation techniques, we estimate the impact on carbon intensity of two legislation variables, recent legislation (passed in the last 3 years) and older legislation (passed more than 3 years ago). We find that recent legislation reduces production emissions more than consumption emissions, while older laws have a bigger impact on consumption emissions. The combined effect of these changes on net carbon imports is very small. Overall, we find no evidence that domestic climate legislation has increased international carbon leakage over the past two decades. Indeed, in high-income countries the longrun leakage rate may even be negative. |
| Keywords: | climate change legislation; climate policy; carbon leakage; pollution havens; production emissions; consumption emissions; Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy; Strategic Research Fund; Faculty of Business and Social Sciences |
| JEL: | F18 K32 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111509&r= |
| By: | Arnaud Sergent (UR ETBX - Environnement, territoires et infrastructures - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-François Ruault (UR LESSEM - Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Vincent Banos (UR ETBX - Environnement, territoires et infrastructures - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Mathieu Nefe (UR ETBX - Environnement, territoires et infrastructures - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); David Chen (UR LESSEM - Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anne-Laure Levet (FCBA - Institut Technologique Forêt Cellulose Bois-construction Ameublement); Wilfried Eliegbo Amouzou |
| Abstract: | Décembre 2018 Ce rapport a été réalisé dans le cadre de l'appel à projets de recherche « Comprendre et renforcer les compétitivités agricoles, agroalimentaires et forestières » lancé en 2016 par le ministère de l'Agriculture et de l'Alimentation (MAA) et financé par le Programme 215. Le contenu de ce rapport n'engage que ses auteurs et ne constitue pas nécessairement le point de vue du MAA. |
| Date: | 2020–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03277129&r= |
| By: | Ballard-Rosa, Cameron; Malik, Mashail; Rickard, Stephanie; Scheve, Kenneth |
| Abstract: | What explains the backlash against the liberal international order? Are its causes economic or cultural? We argue that while cultural values are central to understanding the backlash, those values are, in part, endogenous and shaped by long-run economic change. Using an original survey of the British population, we show that individuals living in regions where the local labor market was more substantially affected by imports from China have significantly more authoritarian values and that this relationship is driven by the effect of economic change on authoritarian aggression. This result is consistent with a frustration-aggression mechanism by which large economic shocks hinder individuals’ expected attainment of their goals. This study provides a theoretical mechanism that helps to account for the opinions and behaviors of Leave voters in the 2016 UK referendum who in seeking the authoritarian values of order and conformity desired to reduce immigration and take back control of policymaking. |
| Keywords: | globalization; backlash; public opinion; political economy; economic policy; Department of Political Science |
| JEL: | R14 J01 L81 |
| Date: | 2021–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108664&r= |
| By: | Matthieu Renault (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | Based on the testimony of Edmond Malinvaud, this article puts forth a threefold thesis about the liberal turn in France. First, this turn marked a mere return to traditional liberalism, rather than the advent of "neoliberalism". Second, engineer-economists played a limited role as they did not initiate the reorientation of economic policies but accompanied it. Third, the liberal turn in France is understood as a period of transition during which the Planist-Keynesian model of regulation was dismantled. Three transformations – all initiated by Raymond Barre but brought to completion by the socialist government – were decisive in this regard: the end of price and wage controls, the end of the public monopoly of expertise, and the end of Keynesian stabilization policies. |
| Abstract: | A l'appui du témoignage d'Edmond Malinvaud, cet article avance une triple thèse à propos du tournant libéral en France. Premièrement, ce tournant a marqué un retour au libéralisme traditionnel plutôt que l'avènement d'un « néolibéralisme ». Deuxièmement, les ingénieurs-économistes n'y ont joué qu'un rôle limité, en accompagnant plutôt qu'en impulsant le tournant libéral. Troisièmement, le tournant libéral en France peut être appréhendé comme une période de transition au cours de laquelle fut mise en œuvre la liquidation du modèle de régulation planiste-keynésien. A cet égard, trois transformations – toutes initiées par Raymond Barre mais entérinées par le gouvernement socialiste – furent décisives : la fin du contrôle des prix et des salaires, la fin du monopole public de l'expertise économique et la fin des politiques de stabilisations keynésiennes. |
| Keywords: | Tournant libéral,Néolibéralisme,Keynésianisme,Edmond Malinvaud,Expertise |
| Date: | 2021–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03287150&r= |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln; David Lagakos; Hitoshi Tsujiyama |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how structural change in labor supply along the development spectrum shapes cross-country differences in hours worked. We emphasize two main forces: sectoral reallocation from self-employment to wage work, and declining fixed costs of wage work. We show that these forces are crucial for understanding how the extensive margin (the employment rate) and intensive margin (hours per worker) of aggregate hours worked vary with income per capita. To do so we build and estimate a quantitative model of labor supply featuring a traditional self-employment sector and a modern wage-employment sector. When estimated to match cross-country data, the model predicts that sectoral reallocation explains more than half of the total hours decrease at lower levels of development. Declining fixed costs drive the rise in employment rates at higher levels of income per capita, and imply higher hours in the future, in contrast to the lower hours resulting from income effects and expansions in tax-and-transfer systems. |
| JEL: | E0 E24 O11 O41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29099&r= |
| By: | Jaqueson K. Galimberti |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates how initial beliefs uncertainty can affect data weighting and the estimation of models with adaptive learning. One key finding is that misspecification of initial beliefs uncertainty, particularly with the common approach of artificially inflating initials uncertainty to accelerate convergence of estimates, generates time-varying profiles of weights given to past observations in what should otherwise follow a fixed profile of decaying weights. The effect of this misspecification, denoted as diffuse initials, is shown to distort the estimation and interpretation of learning in finite samples. Simulations of a forward-looking Phillips curve model indicate that (i) diffuse initials lead to downward biased estimates of expectations relevance in the determination of actual inflation, and (ii) these biases spill over to estimates of inflation responsiveness to output gaps. An empirical application with U.S. data shows the relevance of these effects for the determination of expectational stability over decadal subsamples of data. The use of diffuse initials is also found to lead to downward biased estimates of learning gains, both estimated from an aggregate representative model and estimated to match individual expectations from survey expectations data. |
| Keywords: | expectations, adaptive learning, bounded rationality, macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E70 D83 D84 E37 C32 C63 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-68&r= |
| By: | Majid, Nurul Fadhilah |
| Abstract: | Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui bagaimana peran aparat kelurahan dan partisipasi masyarakat kelurahan dalam perencanaan pembangunan titik penelitian ini dilakukan dengan metode studi literatur. Di kelurahan Lalebata memiliki populasi 29101 jiwa . Dengan teknik pengumpulan data yaitu probability sampling titik dengan dengan penelitian ini dapat menjadi acuan dalam mengambil tindakan. hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan peran aparat kelurahan dan partisipasi masyarakat di kelurahan adalah batas sudah baik dalam peribadatan penyusunan perencanaan pembangunan |
| Date: | 2021–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5an27&r= |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Catherine R. Schenk |
| Abstract: | In 1919, John Maynard Keynes wrote his famous tract The Economic Consequences of the Peace. In that work, he anticipated the collapse of the first era of globalization that began in the mid-nineteenth century. He admonished the short-sighted assumption that these years of relative peace and prosperity for many was a permanent norm, interrupted only briefly by the Great War. The diplomatic failures, lapses in leadership, and promotion of narrow interests and vision outlined by Keynes underpinned his prediction of a backslash of economic nationalism, trade protectionism, and recession. The paper revisits the turning points in the evolution of the global economic system since 1919 by focusing primarily on the evolution of the international monetary system and policy cooperation/coordination. We identify three disruptions and examine how each prompted a change in the underlying ideology about how the international monetary system should organize: World War I, Bretton Woods, 1970s Great Inflation and Managed Floating. Each turning point was characterized by different forms and institutions of cooperation, how rules (either explicit or implicit) were designed and implemented, and the crucial importance of the historical context. |
| JEL: | F02 F33 N10 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29114&r= |
| By: | Elliott Ash; Germain Gauthier; Philine Widmer |
| Abstract: | Social scientists have become increasingly interested in how narratives -- the stories in fiction, politics, and life -- shape beliefs, behavior, and government policies. This paper provides a novel, unsupervised method to quantify latent narrative structures in text, drawing on computational linguistics tools for clustering coherent entity groups and capturing relations between them. After validating the method, we provide an application to the U.S. Congressional Record to analyze political and economic narratives in recent decades. Our analysis highlights the dynamics, sentiment, polarization, and interconnectedness of narratives in political discourse. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01720&r= |
| By: | Volker Nocke; Patrick Rey |
| Abstract: | We study a model in which a monopoly seller decides which among a set of heterogeneous products to offer, and what prices to charge, and consumers engage in costly (random) sequential search to learn prices and valuations. We show that the equilibrium exhibits choice overload: The larger the product line, the fewer consumers start searching. We provide conditions under which the equilibrium size of the product line is socially excessive (or insufficient). We also characterize equilibria when the seller can position products, thereby allowing the possibility of directed search, and disclose product identity. We show that the best equilibrium for the seller may involve randomizing over product positioning and inducing inefficient search. Finally, we extend our analysis to that of a platform choosing which sellers to host. |
| Keywords: | sequential consumer search, product variety, choice overload, multiproduct firm, platform |
| JEL: | L12 L15 D42 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_315&r= |
| By: | Parle, Conor (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Using methods from natural language processing I create two measures of the monetary policy tilt of the ECB entitled the “Hawk-Dove Indices”, that outline the beliefs of the ECB on the current state of the economy and the outlook for growth and inflation. These measures closely track interest rate expectations over the tightening and loosening cycle, and can provide a useful measure of monetary policy tilt at zero lower bound episodes and contains information about the state of the economy. I exploit the time lag between decision announcements and the ECB’s monetary policy press conference to assess the immediate financial market impact of changes in communication within the press conference, free from the effects of the shock from the monetary policy decision. Consistent with the literature on the information channel of monetary policy, I find a non-negligible positive (negative) effect on stock prices of a more hawkish (dovish) tone in the press conference, indicating that the ECB reveals “private information” during these press conferences, and that market participants internalise this as good (bad) news regarding the future state of the economy, rather than internalising a future potential increase (decrease) in interest rates. This effect is stronger prior to the introduction of formal forward guidance, suggesting that since then ECB communication has been less surprising to markets in recent times. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, communication, machine learning, natural language processing, event study, information effects |
| JEL: | E52 E58 C55 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/21&r= |
| By: | \'Alvaro Romaniega |
| Abstract: | Condorcet Jury Theorem or Miracle of Aggregation are frequently invoked to ensure the competence of some aggregate decision-making processes. In this article we explore an estimation of the prior probability of the thesis predicted by the theorem (if there are enough voters, majority rule is a competent decision procedure). We use tools from measure theory to conclude that, prima facie, it will fail almost surely. To update this prior either more evidence in favor of competence would be needed or a modification of the decision rule. Following the latter, we investigate how to obtain an almost sure competent information aggregation mechanism for almost any evidence on voter competence (including the less favorable ones). To do so, we substitute simple majority rule by weighted majority rule based on some weights correlated with epistemic rationality such that every voter is guaranteed a minimal weight equal to one. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00733&r= |
| By: | Alberto Abadie; Jinglong Zhao |
| Abstract: | This article studies experimental design in settings where the experimental units are large aggregate entities (e.g., markets), and only one or a small number of units can be exposed to the treatment. In such settings, randomization of the treatment may induce large estimation biases under many or all possible treatment assignments. We propose a variety of synthetic control designs as experimental designs to select treated units in non-randomized experiments with large aggregate units, as well as the untreated units to be used as a control group. Average potential outcomes are estimated as weighted averages of treated units for potential outcomes with treatment, and control units for potential outcomes without treatment. We analyze the properties of such estimators and propose inferential techniques. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02196&r= |
| By: | Felix-Benedikt Liebrich |
| Abstract: | We consider the problem of finding Pareto-optimal allocations of risk among finitely many agents. The associated individual risk measures are law invariant, but with respect to agent-dependent and potentially heterogeneous reference probability measures. Moreover, we assume that the individual risk assessments are consistent with the respective second-order stochastic dominance relations. We do not assume their convexity though. A simple sufficient condition for the existence of Pareto optima is provided. Its proof combines local comonotone improvement with a Dieudonn\'e-type argument, which also establishes a link of the optimal allocation problem to the realm of "collapse to the mean" results. Finally, we extend the results to capital requirements with multidimensional security markets. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.05791&r= |
| By: | Sumit Shrivastav (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the competitive and welfare effects of imperfect consumer recognition, in a duopoly model with switching costs. We demonstrate that the impact of consumer recognition on firms' pricing strategies, industry profits, and welfare crucially depends on the accuracy of consumer recognition. When the extent of correct recognition is greater than that of incorrect recognition equilibrium profits decrease with correct recognition and increase with incorrect recognition Consumer surplus increases with correct recognition and falls with incorrect recognition. Welfare decreases with correct recognition, while impact of incorrect recognition on welfare is non-monotonic On the other hand, when the extent of correct recognition is less than that of incorrect recognition, the reverse happens with equilibrium profits. The effect of correct recognition on consumer surplus is ambiguous, and it increases with incorrect recognition. Welfare increases with correct recognition and may increase or decrease with incorrect recognition. |
| Keywords: | BBPD, Consumer recognition, Price discrimination, Imperfect information |
| JEL: | D43 D80 L13 L40 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-017&r= |
| By: | Spencer Bastani; Tomer Blumkin; Luca Micheletto |
| Abstract: | We analyze optimal redistribution in the presence of labor market signaling where innate productive ability is not only unobserved by the government, but also by prospective employers. Signaling in both one and two dimensions is considered, where in the latter case firms have an informational advantage vis-a-vis the government. The dual role of income taxation in redistributing income and affecting signalling incentives is analyzed, as well as extended tax systems that combine income taxation with direct instruments allowing the signals to be taxed. A key focus is the analysis of the feasibility and social desirability of redistribution through wage compression. |
| Keywords: | optimal taxation, signaling, education, monitoring |
| JEL: | D82 H21 H52 J31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9210&r= |
| By: | Imdade Chitou (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Gilles Dufrénot (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, Institut Louis Bachelier); Julien Esposito (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the dependence of the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) for several ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Indexes to the outbreaks of the Covid-19 viral pandemics between March 1, 2020, and April 30, 2021. We investigate whether the number of new cases, the reproduction rate, death rate and stringency policies have resulted in an increase/decrease in the spreads. We study the bivariate distributions of epidemiological indicators and spreads to investigate their concordance using dynamic copula analysis and estimate the Kendall rankcorrelation coefficient. We also investigate the effect of the epidemiological variables on the extreme values of the spreads by fitting a tail index derived from a Pareto type I distribution. We highlight the existence of correlations, robust to the type of copulas used (Clayton or Gumbel). Moreover, we show that the epidemiological variables explain well the extreme values of the spreads. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19,corporate spreads,pandemics,emerging economies |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03297198&r= |
| By: | Andersen, Torben M.; Bhattacharya, Joydeep; Gestsson, Marias H. |
| Abstract: | Under dynamic efficiency, a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme helps the current generation of retirees but hurts future generations because they are forced to save via a return-dominated scheme. Abandoning it is deemed welfare-improving but typically not for all generations. But what if agents are present-biased (hence, undersave for retirement) and the “paternalistically motivated forced savings†component of a PAYG scheme motivated its existence in the first place? This paper shows it is possible to transition from such a PAYG scheme on to a higher return, mandated fully-funded scheme; yet, no generation is hurt in the process. The results inform the debate on policy design of pension systems as more and more policy makers push for the transition to take place but are forced to recognize that current retirees may get hurt along the way. |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202106010700001814&r= |
| By: | Rodrigo Caputo; Felipe Leal |
| Abstract: | In a small economy, with complete markets and domestic price stickiness, a monetary policy rule that reacts to domestic inflation implements the efficient allocation, as long as it also reacts to the natural rate of interest. In this case, a policy response to the exchange rate or any other foreign variable is inefficient. We show that, when the central bank is unable to observe the natural rate of interest, a domestic inflation targeting rule that reacts also to the real exchange rate is optimal. This rule is able to fully stabilize domestic inflation and, at the same time, induces efficient movements in relative prices (terms of trade) through nominal devaluations. Indeterminacy can arise, but a stronger policy response to domestic inflation can prevent this from happening. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:916&r= |
| By: | Albert Jan Hummel |
| Abstract: | In a Mirrleesian environment, a monopsonist sets hourly wages and individuals choose how many hours to work. Labor market outcomes do not only depend on the level and slope of the income tax function, but also on its curvature. A more concave tax schedule raises the elasticity of labor supply, which boosts wages. Consequently, optimal marginal tax rates for low-skilled workers are declining in income. I derive an optimal tax formula in terms of sufficient statistics that accounts for the impact of tax curvature on labor market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | monopsony, optimal taxation, tax curvature |
| JEL: | H21 J38 J42 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9220&r= |
| By: | Peter J. Kuhn; Kailing Shen |
| Abstract: | When employers’ explicit gender requests were unexpectedly removed from a Chinese job board overnight, pools of successful applicants became more integrated: women’s (men’s) share of call-backs to jobs that had requested men (women) rose by 63 (146) percent. The removal ‘worked’ in this sense because it generated a large increase in gender-mismatched applications, and because those applications were treated surprisingly well by employers. The removal had little or no effect on aggregate matching frictions. The job titles that were integrated however, were not the most gendered ones, and were disproportionately lower-wage jobs. |
| JEL: | J16 J63 J71 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29116&r= |
| By: | Galli, Davide; Torelli, Riccardo; Tibiletti, Veronica |
| Abstract: | Using the signaling theory as a reference, this research conducts an in-depth analysis of the adoption of the benefit corporation model, a legal and governance framework introduced into Italian regulations in 2016 following legislation introduced by many US states between 2010 and 2013. Focusing on the experience of Italian benefit corporations, we explore how these businesses manage their signaling environment (signaler, signal, receiver, and feedback) to obtain greater transparency. The analysis focuses on companies’ bylaws, websites, and non-financial reports and suggests that the adoption of this new hybrid business model will only translate into an opportunity for greater transparency for one in four benefit corporations. The ability to strengthen the effects of adopting this model, adequate resources, and a long-term approach are required. The model, therefore, appears to present an opportunity for larger companies that have already invested adequately in the development of communication (web) and reporting (report) tools. The results seem to suggest that, on the contrary, for small companies with less experience, transformation into a benefit corporation may generate a risk of ambiguity. |
| Date: | 2021–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ar28u&r= |
| By: | Sumit Shrivastav (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the profitability of price discrimination based on recognition of consumers' brand preferences, in a duopoly model with switching costs. We show that, in contrast to existing studies, price discrimination results into higher profits than uniform pricing if consumers are heterogeneous in terms of brand preferences and the extent of such heterogeneity is sufficiently high. |
| Keywords: | BBPD, Consumer recognition, Price discrimination |
| JEL: | D43 L13 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-019&r= |
| By: | Qihui Chen; Zheng Fang; Xun Huang |
| Abstract: | We develop a Stata command, bootranktest, for implementing the matrix rank test of Chen and Fang (2019) in linear instrumental variable regression models. Existing rank tests employ critical values that may be too small, and hence may not even be first order valid in the sense that they may fail to control the Type I error. By appealing to the bootstrap, they devise a test that overcomes the deficiency of existing tests. The command bootranktest implements the two-step version of their test, and also the analytic version if chosen. The command also accommodates data with temporal and cluster dependence. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.00511&r= |
| By: | Jones, Jordan (Economic Research Service, USDA); Courtemanche, Charles (Georgia State University); Denteh, Augustine (Georgia State University); Marton, James (Georgia State University); Tchernis, Rusty (Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | Senior participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has traditionally been lower than other groups among those eligible, with historical estimates below 50 percent. We examine the impacts of state SNAP policies on program participation among low-income senior (age 60 and older) and non-senior households using data from the 2001-2014 December Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement. Our results suggest that policies designed to expand SNAP eligibility modestly increased participation among seniors but led to larger increases among non-seniors. In contrast, we find little evidence of effects of policies related to transaction costs, stigma, or outreach on either group. |
| Keywords: | SNAP, seniors, participation, eligibility |
| JEL: | I32 I38 J14 Q18 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14564&r= |
| By: | Mahdieh Yazdani |
| Abstract: | In this research we perform hedonic regression model to examine the residential property price determinants in the city of Boulder in the state of Colorado, USA. The urban housing markets are too compounded to be considered as homogeneous markets. The heterogeneity of an urban property market requires creation of market segmentation. To test whether residential properties in the real estate market in the city of Boulder are analyzed and predicted in the disaggregate level or at an aggregate level we stratify the housing market based on both property types and location and estimate separate hedonic price models for each submarket. The results indicate that the implicit values of the property characteristics are not identical across property types and locations in the city of Boulder and market segmentation exists. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.02442&r= |
| By: | Thierry Kamionka (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Les thématiques présentent dans ce numéro spécial témoignent de préoccupations sociétales importantes comme l'environnement, la gestion des ressources naturelles, la réduction des déchets mais aussi des aspects liés aux inégalités de genre, à la réforme des retraites, la persistance des innovations ou encore à la fragilité psychologique des étudiants. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03290104&r= |
| By: | Caio Almeida (Princeton University); Paul Schneider (University of Lugano - Institute of Finance; Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | We develop a non-negative polynomial minimum-norm likelihood ratio (PLR) of two distributions of which only moments are known. The PLR converges to the true, unknown, likelihood ratio. We show consistency, obtain the asymptotic distribution for the PLR coefficients estimated with sample moments, and present two applications. The first develops a PLR for the unknown transition density of a jump-diffusion process. The second modifies the Hansen-Jagannathan pricing kernel framework to accommodate polynomial return models consistent with no-arbitrage while simultaneously nesting the linear return model. In the S\&P 500 market, this modification entails sizable positions in option contracts necessary to implement the optimal trading strategy suggested by its dual portfolio formulation. |
| Keywords: | Likelihood ratio, positive polynomial, Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) |
| JEL: | C13 C51 C61 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2145&r= |
| By: | Hugo Couture; Dalibor Stevanovic |
| Abstract: | In this report, we evaluate the relevance of weekly Google search query data for current and next month prediction on several labour market variables in Canada and Quebec. Several types of mixed-frequency models are considered and their performance is evaluated in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise spanning the period 2014M09 - 2019M09. Google Trends improve the accuracy of forecasts of the employment rate, hours worked and unemployment rate. The availability of this data in high frequency is crucial. Their contribution is important especially during the first two weeks of the month, so when Labor Force Survey data are not yet available for the last month. Dans ce rapport, nous évaluons la pertinence des données hebdomadaires des requêtes faites sur le moteur de recherche de Google au niveau de la prédiction du mois courant et du prochain mois sur plusieurs variables du marché d’emploi au Canada et au Québec. Plusieurs types de modèles en fréquence mixte sont considérés et leur performance est évaluée dans un exercice de prévision hors échantillon s’étalant sur la période 2014M09 - 2019M09. Les Google Trends améliorent la précision des prévisions du taux d’emploi, des heures travaillées et du taux de chômage. La disponibilité de ces données en haute fréquence est cruciale. Leur apport est important surtout durant les deux premières semaines du mois, donc lorsque les données de l’Enquête sur la population active ne sont pas encore disponibles pour le dernier mois. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting,Macroeconomics,Job market,Google Trends,Machine Learning, Prévision,Macroéconomie,Marché d’emploi,Google Trends,Machine Learning |
| JEL: | C53 C55 E37 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2021rp-15&r= |
| By: | Laurent Piet (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Noel Depeyrot |
| Abstract: | Une recherche financée par le ministère de l'Agriculture et de l'Alimentation a été commandée à l'UMR SMART-LERECO (INRAE), en 2019, afin d'analyser le niveau, la composition et l'évolution du revenu des agriculteurs français. Cette note en présente les principaux enseignements. |
| Date: | 2020–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03275115&r= |
| By: | SYAM, FADLY |
| Abstract: | Merkantilisme merupakan satu sistem ekonomi yang berkembang dengan dominan di England pada abad ke-17 dan 18. Adapun tokoh-tokoh yang berperan besar dalam pemikiran merkantilisme ialah JEAN BODIN, THOMAS MUN, JEAN BAPTISE, SIR WILLIAM PETTY, dan DAVID HUME |
| Date: | 2021–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:tgv7a&r= |
| By: | Martinez, Steve W.; Park, Timothy |
| Abstract: | Local foods are a small but growing share of U.S. agriculture. Marketing channels for local foods include direct sales to consumers (e.g., farmers’ markets, on-farm stores, or pick-your-own stores), grocery stores, restaurants, schools, wholesalers, and food hubs. Local food sales may provide finan-cial benefits to beginning and more experienced farmers compared to farmers who market through traditional channels. This report evaluates the characteristics, production, and marketing practices, and financial performance of local food producers with varying levels of farming and direct marketing experience. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Industrial Organization, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:313069&r= |
| By: | Yansong Li; Elise Météreau; Ignacio Obeso; Luigi Butera; Marie Claire Villeval (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-Claude Dreher (CNC - Institut des sciences cognitives Marc Jeannerod - Centre de neuroscience cognitive - UMR5229 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The role of testosterone on cognitive functions in humans remains controversial. One recent hypothesis suggests that this steroid hormone advances social status. As being observed by others is known to modulate a range of behaviors because of image concerns, we hypothesized that such an audience effect might be an important component of status seeking that is under the control of testosterone. Thus, we investigated to which extent testosterone levels are associated with the effect of being observed during prosocial choices and the neural mechanisms underlying this effect. We enrolled twenty-four male participants, aged 22.47 ± 2.62 years, in an fMRI experiment to examine the relationship between testosterone levels and brain activity engaged in deciding whether to accept or reject monetary transfers to two types of organizations (a positively evaluated organization and a negatively evaluated organization) in presence or absence of an audience. When comparing the public to the private condition, the rate of acceptance increased for the positively evaluated organization, while the rate of rejection increased for the negatively evaluated one. Higher testosterone levels were linked to greater activation in the striatum in the public compared to the private condition, regardless of the organization type. These results indicate a relationship between testosterone levels and striatal activity induced by the audience effect. These findings provide new insights on the role of testosterone in human social behavior. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02990573&r= |
| By: | Stéphane Robin (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Katerina Straznicka (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020]); Marie Claire Villeval (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effects of competitive incentives and of their time horizon on the evolution of both asset prices and trading activity in experimental asset markets. We compare (i) a no-bonus treatment; (ii) a short-term bonus treatment in which bonuses are assigned to the best performers at the end of each trading period; (iii) a long-term bonus treatment in which bonuses are assigned to the best performers at the end of the 15 periods of the market. We find that the existence of bonus contracts does not increase the likelihood of bubbles but it affects their severity, depending on the time horizon of bonuses. Markets with long-term bonus contracts experience lower price deviations and a lower turnover of assets than markets with either no bonuses or long-term bonus contracts. Short-term bonus contracts increase price deviations but only when markets include a higher share of male traders. At the individual level, the introduction of bonus contracts increases the trading activity of males, probably due to their higher competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | experiment,risk attitudes,asset market,bubbles,incentives,bonuses |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03033454&r= |
| By: | Fang Liu |
| Abstract: | It is common to encounter the situation with uncertainty for decision makers (DMs) in dealing with a complex decision making problem. The existing evidence shows that people usually fear the extreme uncertainty named as the unknown. This paper reports the modified version of the typical regret theory by considering the fear experienced by DMs for the unknown. Based on the responses of undergraduate students to the hypothetical choice problems with an unknown outcome, some experimental evidences are observed and analyzed. The framework of the modified regret theory is established by considering the effects of an unknown outcome. A fear function is equipped and some implications are proved. The behavioral foundation of the modified regret theory is further developed by modifying the axiomatic properties of the existing one as those based on the utility function; and it is recalled as the utility-based behavioral foundation for convenience. The application to the medical decision making with an unknown risk is studied and the effects of the fear function are investigated. The observations reveal that the existence of an unknown outcome could enhance, impede or reverse the preference relation of people in a choice problem, which can be predicted by the developed regret theory. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.01825&r= |
| By: | Bureau Benjamin,; Duquerroy Anne,; Giorgi Julien,; Lé Mathias,; Scott Suzanne,; Vinas Frédéric |
| Abstract: | Using rich granular data for over 645 000 French firms in 2020, this paper builds a micro-simulation model to assess the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on corporate liquidity. Going beyond the aggregate picture, we document that while net debt has been fairly stable at the macroeconomic level, individual heterogeneity is widespread. Significant dispersion in changes in net debt prevails both between and within industries, before as well as after public support. We show that the probability to experience a negative liquidity shock - as well as the intensity of this shock - are negatively correlated with the initial credit quality of the firm (based on Banque de France internal ratings). Our model also finds that public support dampens significantly the impact of Covid on the dispersion of liquidity shocks and brings back the distribution of liquidity shocks closer to its pre-crisis path but with fatter tails. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; Micro-simulation; Non-financial Corporations; Cash Holding; Debt |
| JEL: | D22 G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:824&r= |
| By: | Andrew Barr; Laura Kawano; Bruce Sacerdote; William Skimmyhorn; Michael Stevens |
| Abstract: | The Post 9/11 GI Bill (PGIB) is among the largest and most generous college subsidies enacted thus far in the U.S. We examine the impact of the PGIB on veterans’ college-going, degree completion, federal education tax benefit utilization, and long run earnings. Among veterans potentially induced to enroll, the introduction of the PGIB raised college enrollment by 0.17 years and B.A. completion by 1.2 percentage points (on a base of 9 percent). But, the PGIB reduced average annual earnings nine years after separation from the Army by $900 (on a base of $32,000). Years enrolled effects are larger and earnings effects more negative for veterans with lower AFQT scores and those who were less occupationally skilled. Under a variety of conservative assumptions, veterans are unlikely to recoup these reduced earnings during their working careers. All veterans who were already enrolled in college at the time of bill passage increase their months of schooling, but only for those in public institutions did this translate into increases in bachelor’s degree attainment and longer-run earnings. For specific groups of students, large subsidies can modestly help degree completion but harm long run earnings due to lost labor market experience. |
| JEL: | I26 J0 J01 J24 J38 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29024&r= |
| By: | Genz, Sabrina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Gregory, Terry (IZA); Janser, Markus (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Lehmer, Florian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Matthes, Britta (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how workers adjust to firms' investments into new digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, augmented reality, or 3D printing. For this, we collected novel data that links survey information on firms' technology adoption to administrative social security data. We then compare individual outcomes between workers employed at technology adopters relative to non-adopters. Depending on the type of technology, we find evidence for improved employment stability, higher wage growth, and increased cumulative earnings in response to digital technology adoption. These beneficial adjustments seem to be driven by technologies used by service providers rather than manufacturers. However, the adjustments do not occur equally across worker groups: IT-related expert jobs with non-routine analytic tasks benefit most from technological upgrading, coinciding with highly complex job requirements, but not necessarily with more academic skills. |
| Keywords: | technological change, artificial intelligence, employment stability, wages |
| JEL: | J23 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14626&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Reflecting an ongoing commitment to enhancing fiscal transparency, Maldives is the first small island state, and the second country in Asia, to have undertaken a Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE). The Government of the Maldives (GoM) recognizes the importance of transparency in fiscal management and in delivering on its ambitious policy agenda, while responding to current challenges within a tight fiscal environment. This report assesses fiscal transparency practices in Maldives against the first three pillars of the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). |
| Date: | 2021–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/166&r= |
| By: | Diane E. Alexander; Michael R. Richards |
| Abstract: | Hospitals anchor much of US health care and receive a third of all medical spending, including various subsidies. Nevertheless, some become insolvent and exit the market. Research has documented subsequent access problems; however, less is understood about broader implications. We examine over 100 rural hospital closures spanning 2005-2017 to quantify the effects on the local economy. We find sharp and persistent reductions in employment, but these localize to health care occupations and are largely driven by areas experiencing complete closures. Aggregate consumer financial health is only modestly affected, and housing markets were already depressed prior to hospital closures. |
| JEL: | H51 I11 I18 J21 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29110&r= |
| By: | Florjan Bombaj (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Date: | 2019–10–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277455&r= |
| By: | Gray, Thomas W. |
| Abstract: | A fundamental aspect of cooperative organizations is “member control” or member governance of the organization. Member control is facilitated through a series of member offices, elections to those offices, and organizational bylaws. When challenges to the legitimacy of cooperative organization occurs, those challenges often revolve around questions of member control. Do members actually control the cooperative? Our current era is of no exception given a context of acquisitions, mergers, and joint ventures in the cooperative community. This report presents a series of membership charts, from simple to complex, demonstrating various ways to depict a membership structure, with the explicit highlighting of mechanisms for member control. The report begins with simple depictions of macro-membership structures, e.g. local, centralized and federated. It culminates with a “containment” method that is able to illustrate appointed and elected positions, positions with and without decision-making authority, a basis of representation in geographic districts, flows and levels of authority, and whether authority is contained by the membership or outside of members’ control and oversight. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Industrial Organization |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:urdbrr:313042&r= |