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on Islamic Finance |
| By: | Shigeru Kimura (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Ikarii Ryohei; Endo Seiya (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)) |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has brought us a ‘New Normal’ life style and the lockdown has severely harmed economic growth, with many countries estimated to record negative economic growth in 2020. Due to the high correlation between energy demand and economic growth, energy demand is also affected. Against this background, ERIA analyses how energy demand has decreased as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic using East Asia Summit (EAS) energy outlook models that are regularly updated by ERIA and apply an econometric approach. The outlook models cover the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 10 countries plus seven countries – Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, and the United States. According to gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for EAS countries in 2020, only three countries – China, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam – show positive growth, though less than 2%, and the others show negative growth. Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) of the EAS countries fell in 2020, but it is expected to rebound in 2021 and projected to return to the originally forecast trend of energy demand up to 2050. Once official energy statistics become available, a comparison between model results and actual statistics will be made to understand how the energy outlook models trace the impact of the pandemic on energy demand. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, East Asia Summit, energy demand |
| JEL: | P18 |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-22&r= |
| By: | Abrahamsen, Signe A.; Ginja, Rita; Riise, Julie |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence that preventive health care services delivered at schools and provided at a relatively low cost have positive and lasting impacts. We use variation from a 1999‐reform in Norway that induced substantial differences in the availability of health professionals across municipalities and cohorts. In municipalities with one fewer school nurse per 1,000 schoolage children before the reform there was an increase in the availability of nurses of 35% from the pre‐ to the post‐reform period, attributed to the policy change. The reform reduced teenage pregnancies and increased college attendance for girls. It also reduced the take‐up of welfare benefits by ages 26 and 30 and increased the planned use of primary and specialist health care services at ages 25‐35, without impacts on emergency room admissions. The reform also improved the health of newborns of affected new mothers and reduced the likelihood of miscarriages. |
| Keywords: | School Health Services, Teenage Pregnancy, Welfare Dependency, Utilization of Health Services, Health Status |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajt:wcinch:74644&r= |
| By: | Metaxas, Theodore; Folinas, Sotiris |
| Abstract: | This article aims to explore and document the relationship between forms of alternative tourism and economic development. More specifically, the subject of this investigation will be whether a small national economy is able to rely wholly or largely on tourist flows as a source of income and even to invest in a single type of tourism. Alternative forms of tourism, gaming tourism as well as the features of territorially limited countries and how they are linked to the case of Macao will also be objects of study and annotation. With the process of text production through scientific articles, statistical data, and reliable databases, this article attempts to satisfy the investigated relationship as well as the stemming questions. |
| Keywords: | gaming tourism; tourism-based development; regional development; small island developing states; Macao. |
| JEL: | L83 |
| Date: | 2021–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107464&r= |
| By: | Cuenca, Janet S. |
| Abstract: | The Philippines has been badly affected by the coronavirus disease pandemic. In this light, the analysis of the 2021 President’s Budget determines how the pandemic shaped the budgetary distribution of government’s limited financial resources with focus on the top six departments/recipients for fiscal year (FY) 2021. It shows the high spending priority given to social and economic services which is consistent with the policy pronouncements of the government for FY 2021. The government’s greatest priority for FY 2021 is to sustain and strengthen government efforts in responding to and recovering from the pandemic. Nevertheless, the emphasis on these spending priorities in the 2021 President’s Budget Message creates an expectation that DOH and DSWD will rank much higher in the top 10 departments/recipients for FY 2021. Apparently, the 2021 proposed budget gives higher spending priority on maintenance of peace and order and national defense, which placed the Department of Interior and Local Government and the Department of National Defense in higher spots compared to the Department of Health and the Department of Social Welfare and Development. A close examination of various government documents (e.g., DBM 2020e) indicates that the proposed budget for the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) is part of the government’s recovery program to adapt to the post-pandemic life. <p> Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | President’s Budget, National Expenditure Program |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-35&r= |
| By: | Ezell, Carson |
| Abstract: | There are significant geographical disparities in activism throughout the world with respect to supporting the Uyghur cause against human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region of China. This paper introduces the history of Chinese rule of the Xinjiang region and examines the ways in which the Uyghur diaspora has spread. It then explores how geographical, cultural, economic, and religious relationships between Xinjiang and segments of the international community impact attitudes and levels of activism in response to recent developments in Xinjiang, particularly focusing on the weaker responses in the Middle East relative to the rest of the Islamic community. It then proposes recommendations for regional stakeholders in Middle Eastern civil society to encourage greater support for the Uyghur community. |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mk7q6&r= |
| By: | Mitsuyo Ando (Keio University, Japan); Kenta Yamanouchi (Kagawa University, Japan); Fukunari Kimura (Keio University, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Despite its impressive economic growth in the past few decades, India is slow in adopting a task-by-task international division of labour or international production networks (IPNs). Using international trade data for international comparison from multiple angles, this paper visualises the position of India – particularly in machinery IPNs and information and communication technology (ICT) services. Although machinery industries are at the centre of IPNs in East Asia, the paper clearly visualises that India has not yet participated in Factory Asia. Rather, trade data indicate that India is still engaged in import-substituting industrialisation. The paper also argues that ICT services are a strength for the Indian economy, and its competitiveness could be utilised effectively by combining new technologies with traditional industries such as manufacturing. India still has huge potential for utilising the mechanics of a new international division of labour to accelerate economic growth, innovation, and poverty alleviation. |
| Keywords: | International production networks, unbundling, machinery, global value chain (GVC) participation, gravity equation |
| JEL: | F14 F68 O53 |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-14&r= |
| By: | Keita Oikawa (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Yasuyuki Todo (Waseda University, Japan); Masahito Ambashi; Fukunari Kimura (Keio University, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Shujiro Urata (Waseda University, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | This study uncovers the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the business performance, outlook, and regional supply chains of manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States and India. To address the aim, we conducted an extensive questionnaire survey via internet from November 2020 to February 2021 and received effective replies from 1,789 companies – comprising local firms, including large and small and medium-sized enterprises and multinational firms in all 11 countries. The results show vigorous private dynamism in the region. Firms’ business performance during the pandemic was distributed widely from positive to negative, and the firms that were adaptive to the COVID-19 shock – in terms of quickly arranging their supply chains – were more likely to perform well and have a better outlook. Many firms restructured their supply chains to a certain extent in response to the COVID-19 shock. Furthermore, most of the supply chain adjustments are unlikely to be reversed. The COVID-19 outbreak resulted in a number of reduced transaction links in the regional supply chains, while it delivered almost the same number of expanding transaction links. A somewhat disappointing outcome was that the least selected supply chain measure in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak was supply chain digitalisation, which should have been an accelerator of digital transformation in the regional economy. |
| Date: | 2021–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-17&r= |
| By: | Xunpeng Shi (Australia–China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Australia); Tsun Se Cheong (Department of Economics and Finance, The Hang Seng University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong); Michael Zhou (Australia–China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the debates on supply chain resilience and the economic and emissions impact of supply chain rerouting using Australia and China trade as an example. The estimations demonstrate that, in both export and import cases, a trade embargo between Australia and China, despite being compensated by alternative supply chains, will cause gross domestic product loss and emissions increases for both countries. Moreover, even if all other countries gain from the markets left by China, many of them suffer from overall gross domestic product loss and emissions increase. The findings that ASEAN and China may also suffer from an Australia–China trade embargo, despite a gain in trade volume, suggests that no country should add fuel to the fire. The results suggest that countries need to defend rules-based trading regimes and continuously promote regional economic integration. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; supply chain; global value chain; economic integration; Australia; China |
| JEL: | F18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-20&r= |
| By: | Dünhaupt, Petra; Herr, Hansjörg; Mehl, Fabian; Teipen, Christina |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 crisis is unique in many respects and, as the IMF (2021, p. 43) puts it: "a crisis like no other". A global economic contraction occurred that was unprecedented in its speed and depth. Support packages were put together in some parts of the world that also dwarfed anything seen up to that point. Also, the massive differences in how countries, sectors and people were affected by the crisis is unusual in many respects. What is already visible is that national government policies are playing a significant role during the pandemic and its impact on social groups. In this comment, we will briefly assess the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic up to now (July 2021) and discuss possible future trends for the reorganization of global value chains (GVCs). First, we will give an overview of the pandemic's economic and social effects as well as various policy responses by governments and international organizations. Second, we will discuss the effects of the pandemic on GVCs as well as different scenarios of further restructuring dynamics in GVCs. To conclude, we will argue that although the COVID-19 pandemic might not fundamentally alter the current globalization model, it could serve as a catalyst for already ongoing changes. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,Monetary Policy,Fiscal Policy,Crisis Management,Global Value Chains,Global North,Global South |
| JEL: | E52 E62 F01 F6 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:1642021&r= |
| By: | Nobuaki Yamashita (Australian National University, Keio University, and Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology); Kiichiro Fukasaku (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses how the current COVID-19 pandemic is shaping global value chains in East Asia after the formidable disruptions inflicted by the health crisis. Some have expressed the view that global value chains would readjust and production processes would move home, i.e. reshoring, facilitated by the recent movement of protectionism measures in the post-pandemic world. We evaluate such concerns and examine the role of policy with a focus on non-tariff measures in East Asia. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, pandemic, global value chains (GVCs), Non-tariff measures (NTMs), East Asian countries |
| JEL: | F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-19&r= |
| By: | Stathis Polyzos; Anestis Fotiadis; Aristeidis Samitas (College of Business, Zayed University, Abu Dhabi, UAE) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to produce forecasts for tourism flows and tourism revenue for ASEAN and East Asian countries after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. By implementing two different machine-learning methodologies (the Long Short Term Memory neural network and the Generalised Additive Model) and using different training data sets, we aim to forecast the recovery patterns for these data series for the first 12 months after the end of crisis. We thus produce a baseline forecast, based on the averages of our different models, as well as a worst- and best-case scenario. We show that recovery is asymmetric across the group of countries in the ASEAN and East Asian region and that recovery in tourism revenue is generally slower than in tourist arrivals. We show significant losses of approximately 48%, persistent after 12 months, for some countries, while others display increases of approximately 40% when compared to pre-crisis levels. Our work aims to quantify the projected drop in tourist arrivals and tourism revenue for ASEAN and East Asian countries over the coming months. The results of the proposed research can be used by policymakers as they determine recovery plans, where tourism will undoubtedly play a very important role. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, tourism, deep learning, ASEAN, East Asia |
| JEL: | H12 P46 Z32 |
| Date: | 2021–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-12&r= |
| By: | Subash Sasidharan; Ketan Reddy (Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the role of digital infrastructure in shaping the global value chain (GVC) participation of Indian manufacturing firms. To examine the digitalisation and GVC nexus, a rich, firm-level, unbalanced panel of 4,875 manufacturing firms from the past 2 decades is employed to detail the rising importance of digital infrastructure in the Indian context and then to examine empirically the relationship between digitalisation and GVCs. Employing a logit model, a positive, significant impact of digitalisation is found regarding firms’ GVC participation. Further, subsample results highlight that digitalisation promotes integration of small firms and firms from low-technology industries into the GVC. The findings of the analysis are robust to alternate measures of the GVCs. |
| Keywords: | digitalisation, Indian manufaturing, global value chain margins, difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | F14 F15 L86 O14 |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-09&r= |
| By: | Ashwini Deshpande; Naila Kabeer |
| Abstract: | Based on primary data from India, this paper analyses the reasons underlying women's low labour force participation. In developing countries, women engaged in unpaid economic work in family enterprises are often not counted as workers. Women are involved in expenditure-saving activities, i.e. productive work within the family, over and above domestic chores and care work. We document the fuzziness of the boundary between domestic and unpaid (and therefore invisible) productive work which leads to mismeasurement of women's work. |
| Keywords: | Female labour force participation, India, Social norms, Unpaid labour |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-130&r= |
| By: | Yose Rizal Damuri (Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Indonesia); Prabaning Tyas (Tenggara Strategics, Indonesia); Haryo Aswicahyono (Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Indonesia); Lionel Priyadi (Tenggara Strategics, Indonesia); Stella Kusumawardhani (Tenggara Strategics, Indonesia); Ega Kurnia Yazid (Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | A timely and reliable prediction of economic activities is crucial in policymaking, especially in the current COVID-19 pandemic situation, which requires real-time decisions. However, making frequent predictions is challenging due to the substantial delays in releasing aggregate economic data. This study aims to nowcast Indonesia’s economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic using the novel high-frequency Facebook Mobility Index as a predictor. Employing mixed-frequency, mixed-data sampling, and benchmark least-squares models, we expanded the mobility index and used it to track the growth dynamics of the gross regional domestic product of provinces in Java and Bali and performed a bottom-up approach to estimate the aggregated economic growth of the provinces altogether. Our results suggested that the daily Facebook Mobility Index was a considerably reliable predictor for projecting economic activities on time. All models almost consistently produced reliable directional predictions. Notably, we found the mixed data sampling-autoregressive model to be slightly superior to the other models in terms of overall precision and directional predictive accuracy across observations. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, nowcasting, GDP, mobility, Mixed-frequency |
| JEL: | C20 C53 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-18&r= |
| By: | Iskandar, Isda |
| Abstract: | This article, explain about how the mechanism of Islamic market, as we know that market is a place to exchange of goods or services. Islam, places the market on an important position on economy. Basically, Islamic Economy want a free market mechanism that can makes a fair price that obtained based on supply and demand, and there shouldn’t be disturbance that causes the market balance being damaged. But in reality, it’s a difficult thing to find a market that runs fairly. We call this condition market distortion. In the reality, market distortions still occur frequently, so that it can harm the parties involved as market participants. |
| Date: | 2021–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:z4rvp&r= |
| By: | , Nirwana |
| Abstract: | Islamic business ethics ismorality in running a business in accordance with Islamic values, so that in conducting business there is no need to worry, because it is believed to be something good and true. Ethical values, morals, ethics or morals are the values that encourage human beings to be a whole person. Such as honesty, truth, justice, independence, happiness and love. When these ethical values are implemented it will perfect the human reality as a whole. Every one can have a set ofknowledge about values, but the knowledge that directs and controls the behavior of Muslims there are only two, namely the Qur'an and hadith as the source of all values and guidelines in every joint of life, including in business. Ethics or morals have a very important position for human life, both as individual members of society and members of a nation. The wealth, the glory of the people one arthdepends on their morals, and the damage one arth is nothing but also due to the depravity of human morality it self. Human life requires morality, without morality human life is impossible to take place. |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:e9jnr&r= |
| By: | Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Gracia Hadiwidjaja (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | While East Asia has been moving forward with its regional integration agenda, one main challenge remains and is growing – non-tariff measures (NTMs). Animal, vegetable, and food products tend to be more regulated than other products, largely due to quality and safety standards. NTMs affect 66%–98% of total trade in those sectors. Our paper presents the frequency index, coverage ratio, and prevalence score to measure NTMs in the region. They are highest amongst food, vegetable, and animal products; and vary amongst other products, depending on the economy. We find that the high frequency index of NTMs does not necessarily translate to a high value of coverage ratio for trade. One explanation could be that countries tend to regulate imported goods which compete with the domestic products more than imported goods which they need. |
| Keywords: | East Asia, tariff, non-tariff measures, RCEP, WTO |
| JEL: | F F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-21&r= |
| By: | Michael Lopesciolo (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Daniela Muhaj; Carolina Ines Pan (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Few countries have embraced active labor market policies to the same extent as Saudi Arabia. In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the imperative of increasing Saudi employment became paramount. The country faced one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the world while over 80 percent of its private sector consisted of foreign labor. Since 2011, a wave of employment nationalization efforts has been mainly implemented through a comprehensive and strictly enforced industry and firm-specific quota system known as Nitaqat. This paper assesses the employment gains as well as the costs and unintended consequences resulting from Nitaqat and related policies between 2011 and 2017. We find that while job nationalization policies generated significant initial gains in Saudi employment and labor force participation, the effects were heterogeneous across workers, firms and sectors. Moreover, our analysis suggests that the resulting unintended consequences far outweighed the benefits over time generating a less cost-effective and productivity inhibiting labor market composition. |
| Keywords: | labor market, employment quotas, expatriate workers, workforce nationalization, Saudi Arabia, occupation, skills, labor productivity |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J24 J31 J42 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:132a&r= |
| By: | Tim Köhler; Haroon Bhorat (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | As part of the South African government’s response to the adverse economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the country’s system of social assistance was temporarily expanded. On the extensive margin, a special COVID-19 grant was introduced to provide support to a large, previously unreached group – unemployed adults – and therefore address a notable hole in the social safety net. Given the grant’s distinct target group, it is plausible that its labour market effects may vary from those of preexisting grants. In this paper, we provide a quantitative, descriptive analysis on COVID-19 grant receipt as well as causal estimates of the receipt of the grant on labour market participation by adopting a quasi-experimental econometric approach. First, we find that not only did the grant bring millions of previously unreached adults into the system, but application for and receipt of the grant was relatively pro-poor, and it was relatively well-targeted to the unemployed. We estimate that in the grant’s absence poverty would have been over 5% higher among the poorest households, and household income inequality 1.3% to 6.3% higher. Second, contrary to the common concern that grant programs may discourage work, our preferred causal estimate suggests that COVID-19 grant receipt increased the probability of job search by more than 25 percentage points. This highlights the grant’s important role in reducing inactivity, enabling participation, and ultimately aiding labour market recovery. |
| Keywords: | South Africa, labour market, COVID-19, pandemic, grants, social assistance, poverty, household income inequality |
| JEL: | D04 D31 C54 H53 J48 J68 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202108&r= |
| By: | Davillas, Apostolos; Burlinson, Andrew; Liu, Hui-Hsuan |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study to explore the association between fuel poverty and a set of well-being outcomes: life-satisfaction, self-reported health measures and more objectively measured biomarker data. Over and above the conventional income–fuel cost indicators, we also use more proximal heating deprivation indicators. We create and draw upon a set of composite indicators that concomitantly capture (the lack of) affordability and thermal comfort. Depending on which fuel deprivation indicator is used, we find heterogeneous associations between fuel poverty and our well-being outcomes. Employing combined fuel deprivation indicators, which takes into account the income–fuel cost balance and more proximal perceptions of heating adequacy, reveals the presence of more pronounced associations with life satisfaction and fibrinogen, one of our biological health measures. The presence of these strong associations would have been less pronounced or masked when using separately each of the components of our composite fuel deprivation indicators as well as in the case of self-reported generic measures of physical health. Lifestyle and chronic health conditions plays a limited role in attenuating our results, while material deprivation partially, but not fully, attenuates our associations between fuel deprivation and well-being. These results remain robust when bounding analysis is employed to test the potential confounding role of unobservables. Our analysis suggests that composite fuel deprivation indicators may be useful energy policy instruments for uncovering the underlining mechanism via which fuel poverty may get “under the skin”. |
| Keywords: | Fuel poverty,biomarkers,health,well-being |
| JEL: | I12 I31 I32 Q4 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:903&r= |
| By: | Baquedano, Felix G.; Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe; Valdes, Constanza; Ajewole, Kayode |
| Abstract: | This report presents results from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service’s (ERS) International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) analysis, which uses a demand-driven framework that evaluates consumer responsiveness to changes in prices and incomes for 76 low- and middle-income countries. Reflecting 2021’s anticipated lower income levels, despite anticipated growth for most countries, the number of food insecure people is estimated at 1.2 billion, almost 291 million higher than in 2020. A sharp increase in global food security was experienced in 2020, as compared to 2019, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Most of the additional food insecure people in 2021 are located in the Central and South Asia (64.1 percent or 186.8 million) sub-region—including India, which drives food security trends in the Asia region. While the Sub-Saharan Africa region is projected to account for 20.6 percent (60 million) of the additional food insecure population. The remaining additional 15.3 percent (44.7 million) food insecure people in 2021 are located in other Asian sub-regions, Latin America and the Caribbean, and North Africa. The prevalence of food insecurity in 2021 for the countries in the assessment is estimated at 30.8 percent of the overall population in the countries, an increase of 6.8 percentage points relative to the 2020 estimate. In 2031, the number of food insecure people is projected to decline from the 2021 estimate by 47.4 percent (637.7 million people), which is 14.0 percent of the projected population of the countries included in this assessment. Given the evolving nature of the impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic and the long-term effects on individual country economies, the estimation results presented in this report contain a high degree of uncertainty. It is important to note the projections do not consider the impacts of unknown future events—such as climate change, armed conflict, and political and economic instability. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:312952&r= |
| By: | Dean Spears (University of Texas at Austin [Austin], Indian Statistical Institute [New Delhi], IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics, IFFS - Institute for Futures Studies); Stéphane Zuber (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Utilitarianism is the most prominent family of social welfare functions. We present three new axiomatic characterizations of utilitarian (that is, additively separable) social welfare functions in a setting where there is risk over both population size and the welfares of individuals. First, we show that, given uncontroversial basic axioms, Blackorby et al.'s (1998) Expected Critical-Level Generalized Utilitarianism (ECLGU) is equivalent to a new axiom holding that it is better to allocate higher utility-conditional-on-existence to possible people who have a higher probability of existence. The other two novel characterizations extend classic axiomatizations of utilitarianism from settings with either social risk or variable-population, considered alone. By considering both social risk and variable population together, we clarify the fundamental normative considerations underlying utilitarian policy evaluation. |
| Keywords: | Social risk,population ethics,utilitarianism,expected critical-level generalized utilitarianism,prioritarianism |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03287583&r= |
| By: | Pratiwi, Nurul |
| Abstract: | Abdul al-Rahman bin Muhamman Khaldun al-hadrawi biasa disebut dengan nama panggilan Ibnu khaldun adalah salah satu tokoh sejarawan muslim yang menguasai ilmu politik, sosial, filsafat, dan ekonomi. Beliau lahir tahun 732 H di Tunis, Ibnu khaldun wafat di kaior pada tahun 807 H dan dimkamkan di kuburan kaum sufi. Ibnu khaldun bermazhab Maliki, Muhadist al-Hafidz, pakar ushul fiqh, petandang, penulis dan sastrawan. Karya karyanya termasuk karya karya yang sangat luar biasa. Karya bukunya diantar lain Syarb al Burdah, al-Mabsul, Al-Ibar wa Diwan al-Mubtada’ wa al-Khabar fi Tarikh al-Arab wa al-Ajam wa al-Barbar |
| Date: | 2021–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vz23y&r= |
| By: | Gadre, Animesh |
| Abstract: | Given the lively debate on the consequences of British colonialism on the Indian economy in the realms of contemporary politics and academia, this paper attempts to trace the development of the economic history of India since the 18th century with a distinct focus on the drain theory of wealth and the question of deindustrialisation. It examines a diverse set of academic publications on this subject and compares the evidence shown by a wide range of authors to arrive at possible conclusions. It is found that the composition of the drain theory of wealth was critically questioned by scholars both home and abroad, and its set of core suppo- sitions remain unsubstantiated. On the other hand, the evidence for the deindustrialisation hypothesis is found to be significant, at least for the regions of Gangetic Bihar and Bengal, during the early 19th century. |
| Keywords: | drain; deindustrialisation; colonialism; economic degradation |
| JEL: | N95 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108977&r= |
| By: | Benzarour, Choukri |
| Abstract: | The pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus has significantly affected the tourism industry. Tourist destinations have adopted emergency measures and restrictions that have affected the mobility of individuals around the world. This study aims to analyse the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry and overall economic performance. Moreover, it describes the recommendations made by two international organizations (UNWTO and OECD) to achieve the recovery of the tourism industry. It additionally reviewed the measures taken to ensure the resilience of tourism in Spain and South Africa. The study uses a qualitative approach to analyse data from different sources, such as official websites, news and press releases on government actions in different countries and literature related to crisis management. The findings indicate the various good practices adopted by governments in assisting to manage this crisis and promoting the destinations. The results also shed light on the challenges in planning, development and promotion domestic tourism, bringing digitalization and the importance of proposing an integrated strategy to better crisis management. |
| Keywords: | tourism; Covid-19 pandemic; recovery measures; domestic tourism. |
| JEL: | L8 L83 L88 |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108924&r= |
| By: | Giorgia Casalone; Alessandra Michelangeli; John Östh; Umut Türk |
| Abstract: | During the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, different countries adopted different strategies in order to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. Regarding higher education, university studies were moved entirely to digital solutions in some countries, while other countries kept the universities open but restricted access. The sudden move to digital educational solutions affected students differently, and since different countries invented different mitigation strategies we got an opportunity to compare the effects of lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic on university students’ performance in Italy, Sweden and Turkey. We employ a difference-in-differences approach by exploiting the fact that Italy and Turkey experienced national lockdowns, while Sweden never applied nationwide mandatory restrictive measures. We use administrative data from universities in the three countries to estimate the probability to pass exams after the spread of COVID-19 pandemic (and the shift to distance education), with respect to the previous comparable period. We find that the pass rate decreased with the shift to online teaching. However, lockdown measures, especially if very restrictive as those applied in Italy, helped to compensate such negative effect. A possible explanation is that students took advantage of the huge increase in the time available for their studies, given the impossibility to carry out any activity outside the home. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic; Students’ outcomes; Student’s integration; Time-to-study; Difference-in-Differences. |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:473&r= |
| By: | Yves Smeers; Sebastian Martin; Jose A. Aguado |
| Abstract: | This case study presents an analysis and quantification of the impact of the lack of co-optimization of energy and reserve in the presence of high penetration of wind energy. The methodology is developed in a companion paper, Part I. Two models, with and without co-optimization are confronted. The modeling of reserve and the incentive to renewable as well as the calibration of the model are inspired by the Spanish market. A sensitivity analysis is performed on configurations that differ by generation capacity, ramping capability, and market parameters (available wind, Feed in Premium to wind, generators risk aversion, and reserve requirement). The models and the case study are purely illustrative but the methodology is general. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.09636&r= |
| By: | Majah-Leah V. Ravago (Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University); Raul V. Fabella (School of Economics, University of the Philippines); Karl Robert L. Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines); Renzi G. Frias (School of Statistics, University of the Philippines); J. Kathleen P. Magadia (Gas Policy Development Project, UPSCRFI) |
| Abstract: | One sizable group of energy users in the Philippines is the collection of firms in the Special Economic Zones (SEZs). The production process among many of the firms in the SEZs includes heating, which currently uses the more expensive and less environment-friendly diesel or liquefied petroleum gas as fuel. Thus, natural gas is a potential cost-competitive and cleaner substitute for the feedstock currently used in both heating process and electricity requirements of firms in SEZs. Our objective in this study is to assess the likelihood of firms to switch to natural gas and determine the profile of power and fuel use among firms in manufacturing and agro industrial SEZs. We find that the extent of knowledge about natural gas and their production technology process are the primary determinants of the likelihood to switch. Particularly, the knowledge that natural gas is a cost-competitive alternative along with the use of heating in the production process are critical to increasing a firm’s probability of switching. Hence, energy-intensive manufacturing firms that use more expensive fuel sources such as diesel for heating are more likely to switch to natural gas. These results also help shed light on facilitating the efficient transition away from less environment-friendly fuels to relatively cleaner natural gas and renewable sources. |
| Keywords: | Easterlin Paradox, Easterlin Hypothesis, Happiness-Income Model, Happiness Survey Question, Happy Poor |
| JEL: | A10 Y20 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agy:dpaper:202105&r= |
| By: | sari, Ade Indah |
| Abstract: | This research explored the social entrepreneurship factors to reduce the rate of unemployment in North Sumatra Indonesia. Social entrepreneurship is built through four main elements, namely social value, civil society, innovation, and economic activity. Through the element of innovation, a new form of social entrepreneurship was discovered. Theoretical reviews of social entrepreneurship practices that have been applied in various elements of civil society show innovation elements. An effort to overcome unemployment in Medan Municipality many forms of Social Entrepreneurships were analyzed. Social entrepreneurship that is most appropriately adopted in the city of Medan to reduce unemployment is to empower young women. It concluded that the synergic forms of Social Entrepreneurship with universities, banking institutions and the government, elements of social entrepreneurship including social value, civil society, innovation and economic activity |
| Date: | 2021–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:eynqs&r= |
| By: | Teles Huo; Miguel St. Aubyn |
| Abstract: | This article is about the construction of time series on the stock of public and private capital and Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Mozambique, from 1960 to 2017, in local currency (meticais), at constant 2009 prices. The construction of these series was based on the IMF methodology, using data on investment and on the depreciation of the capital stock, based on a geometric depreciation model. For investment, data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), from 1991 to 2017, were considered. For the periods previous to 1991, INE investment data were extended regressively, from 1990 to 1960, considering the proportions of investment in real GDP, by sectors: public, private and PPPs. For this purpose, the proportions of total investment implicit in the IMF data from 1960 to 2013 were used. These proportions were applied to INE GDP data) to obtain the investment data in metical’s at 2009 constant prices, from 1960 to 1990. The result of the capital stock series shows an increasing trend of the total capital stock from 1960 to 2017. From the beginning of the 90's until roughly 2014, the public capital stock exceeded the stock of private capital. The share of the public capital stock in the total capital stock is, in general, greater than the share of the private capital stock. These data shows that despite Mozambique embarked on capitalism, the private sector development remained weak, with a low investment capacity in fixed capital to increase its capital stock. |
| Keywords: | capital stock, public capital stock, private capital stock, public private partnership capital stock, investments, GDP, capital stock depreciation |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01832021&r= |
| By: | Sumit Agarwal; Thomas Kigabo; Camelia Minoiu; Andrea F. Presbitero; André F. Silva |
| Abstract: | A large-scale microcredit expansion program---together with a credit bureau accessible to all lenders---can enable unbanked borrowers to build a credit history, facilitating their transition to commercial banks. Loan-level data from Rwanda show the program improved access to credit and reduced poverty. A sizable share of first-time borrowers switched to commercial banks, which cream-skim less risky borrowers and grant them larger, cheaper, and longer-maturity loans. Switchers have lower default risk than non-switchers and are not riskier than other bank borrowers. Switchers also obtain better loan terms from banks compared with first-time bank borrowers without a credit history. |
| Keywords: | Access to credit; Microfinance; Unbanked; Credit bureau; Bank loans |
| JEL: | G21 O12 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-41&r= |
| By: | Marc Fleurbaey (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Zuber (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | How to evaluate and compare social prospects when there may be a risk on i) the actual allocation people will receive; ii) the existence of these future people; and iii) their preferences? This paper investigate this question that may arise when considering policies that endogenously affect future people, for instance climate policy. We show that there is no social ordering that meets minimal requirements of fairness, social rationality, and respect for people's ex ante preferences. We explore three ways to avoid this impossibility. First, if we drop the ex ante Pareto requirement, we can obtain fair ex post criteria that take an (arbitrary) expected utility of an equally-distributed equivalent level of well-being. Second, if the social ordering is not an expected utility, we can obtain fair ex ante criteria that assess uncertain individual prospects with a certainty-equivalent measure of well-being. Third, if we accept that interpersonal comparisons rely on VNM utility functions even in absence of risk, we can construct expected utility social orderings that satisfy of some version of Pareto ex ante. |
| Keywords: | Fairness,social risk,intergenerational equity |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03289160&r= |
| By: | Martin Kuncl; Austin McWhirter; Alexander Ueberfeldt |
| Keywords: | The COVID-19 shock had severe economic implications, which were unequally distributed across Canadian households and businesses. Using a structural model with wealth, housing and income differences across households, we create a scenario that mimics key aggregate economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. We find the following:•The uneven shock consequences—in particular, higher unemployment risk faced by young households during the COVID-19 pandemic—amplified the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. •Government support programs stimulated the economy and reduced consumption inequality and medium-term household vulnerabilities.•A stronger monetary policy response completely offsetting the effective lower bound constraint would have had positive implications for output, inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities. |
| JEL: | E20 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-17&r= |
| By: | Henry Penikas (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Anastasia Skarednova (Alfa-Bank, Russian Federation); Mikhail Surkov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | The recently finalized Basel Framework continues allowing banks to use internal data and models to define risk estimates and use them for the capital adequacy ratio computation. World-wide there are above two thousand banks running the Basel internal models. However, there are countries that have none of such banks. For them there exists a dilemma. Namely, which transition path to adopt out of the two. The voluntarily one as in the EU or the mandatory one as in the US. Our objective is to take the investor perspective and benchmark those two modes. Thus, we wish to find whether there is a premium for any of them, or perhaps that they are equivalent. The novelty of our research is the robust estimate that investors prefer mandatory transition style to the voluntarily one. Such a preference is reflected in the rise of the mean return and decline in stock volatility for the transited banks in the US and right the opposite consequences in the EU. However, we should be cautious in interpreting our findings. Such a preference may not only be the premium for the breakage of the vicious cycle and the ultimate improvement in the banks’ risk-management systems and the overall financial stability. It may also hold true if and only if the mandatory transition for particular institutions is accompanied by a restriction for other banks in the region to transit. Our findings are of value primarily to the emerging economies like Argentine and Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | Basel II, Basel III, BCBS, CAR, difference-in-difference, D-SIB, G-SIB, IRB, risk-weight. |
| JEL: | C21 G12 G17 G18 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps74&r= |
| By: | Srivastava, Dinesh Kumar; Trehan, Ragini; Bharadwaj, Muralikrishna; Kapur, Tarrung |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we have reviewed the Covid induced shock to the debt and deficit profiles of 10 of the largest economies by size of GDP in 2019 referred to in this paper as the Big-10 economies. There is a sharp upsurge in their government debt-GDP ratios because their policy responses to the Covid induced recession have been large fiscal stimuli based on borrowing. With low and often negative growth rates and high fiscal deficit, the debt-GDP ratios are projected to rise sharply in these economies. As normalcy is restored, these countries may attempt to sharply reduce their borrowing levels relative to GDP. However, we argue that before this is done, individual countries may do well to reassess their sustainability norms whether cast in terms of agreements such as the Maastricht Treaty or country level Fiscal Responsibility Legislations (FRLs) or other similar norms. This revision is called for because of the longer-term trends in these economies of rising money supply, falling nominal interest rates and nominal growth rate. The contribution of this article lies in highlighting that the existing FRL norms have become dated in the European and other similar economies because of significant changes in macro parameters such as the interest rate, the long-term growth rate and the government debt-GDP profiles of these countries as compared to the time when these norms were originally determined. There is thus a need now to re-determine these norms which may be higher than their current levels. Even though, some recent literature suggests that the sustainability benchmarks may have shifted upwards, we argue that the post Covid debt-GDP ratios have exceeded these revised benchmarks by significant margins in the case of a number of the Big-10 economies |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, Government Debt, Growth, Inflation, 2008 Economic Crisis |
| JEL: | E61 E62 H62 H63 H68 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108903&r= |
| By: | Julia M. Puaschunder (The New School, Department of Economics, USA) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic, which started at the end of 2019, has been spreading around the world for over a year by now and no clear end is foreseeable yet. While vaccination and medication opportunities to cure the disease have improved impressively and steadily, the most recent coverage of the crisis features yet another set of devastating news as around 10 to over 30% of previously COVID-infected are estimated to become suffering from long haul symptoms. While our first understanding of post-COVID infection long haul symptoms, impetus and cure is still missing, this article provides a speculative account of the socio-economic impact of the newly emerging Generation COVID-19 Long Haulers. Demographically, COVID Long Haulers will be prevalently arising in a 0.3-1.659 billion Long Haulers strong cohort comprised of around 30-40 years old women at infection facing waves of recurrent symptoms of fatigue, headaches and breathing problems as well as a set of debilitating memory fog and emotional distress. While the causes and long-term lasting effects are unclear and to be investigated in the future, first preliminary results on a potential cure via vaccination and self-help movement has arisen in the age of social media. Facebook Long Hauler groups have leveraged as quick and trusted remedy to understand and provide support during a time when hospitals around the world are still facing a more pressing situation of overloaded emergency care. Future research demands for preventive medical care guided by real-time measurement of health status but also the socio-economics of rest and recovery need to be explored. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Crisis, Debilitation, Emotional impairment, Fatigue, Headaches, Memory fog, Generation COVID-19 Long Haulers, Healthcare, Medication, Preventive care, Respiratory symptoms, Self-measurement, Vaccination |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01245&r= |
| By: | Serafica, Ramonette B.; Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Baje, Lora Kryz C.; Orbeta, Aniceto C. Jr. |
| Abstract: | The emergence of digital labor platforms has broadened market work opportunities although certain segments of the population, such as women and those belonging to the younger generation may be naturally drawn to platform or online work. This has important implications on skill formation and human capital development, especially in countries where online work is mostly found at the lower end of the value chain. In addition, this may result in the widening gaps in terms of social protection coverage and may cause social protection schemes to become unsustainable. This paper aims to investigate these issues in the context of making online work a sustainable form of work. <p>Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | social protection, Philippines, Online work, digital labor platforms, skills formation |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-27&r= |
| By: | Stephanie Rhea Erev |
| Keywords: | political theory; new materialism; friedrich nietzsche; jamaica kincaid; transfiguration; affirmation; climate catastrophe; timothy luke; anthropocene; critical theory; eco-critique |
| Date: | 2020–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/328270&r= |
| By: | Ayako Obashi (Aoyama Gakuin University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | In the East Asian context, previous studies showed that trade occurring through production networks remained relatively steady amidst an economic shock and recovered faster and stronger once the shock was over. Using finely disaggregated product-level monthly bilateral trade data, we examine whether network trade in the East Asian region has been robust and resilient in face of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as in normal times, by conducting a series of survival analyses. We find a new set of empirical evidence suggesting the robustness of East Asian network trade in normal times and its resilience even amidst the COVID-19 shock. |
| Keywords: | East Asian production networks, COVID-19, survival analysis |
| JEL: | F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2021–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-10&r= |
| By: | Jabulile Monnakgotla; Morné Oosthuizen (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | While employment—or the quantity of jobs—is measured regularly in South Africa, the quality of those jobs is not, making it difficult to assess how job quality has evolved over time. This paper proposes a simple job quality index using the Quarterly Labour Force Survey data that can be readily updated on an ongoing basis as new data becomes available. The index covers four dimensions of job quality, namely wages; benefits and employment security; working time and work-life balance; and representation and voice. Dimensions of job quality are equally weighted within the overall index, while indicators are equally weighted within each dimension. Using this index, we find that job quality declined over the 2011-2017 period, driven by deterioration in the average scores on the dimensions of wages and representation and voice. Unfortunately, the Quarterly Labour Force Surveys do not collect data on working conditions or on aspects of skills and career development, and these two dimensions are not included within the index. In order to measure job quality comprehensively, nationally representative surveys would need to be expanded to collect (additional) data on working conditions, access to training, work-life balance, and prospects for career development, amongst others. |
| Keywords: | Job quality index; South Africa; Employment |
| JEL: | J81 J30 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202103&r= |
| By: | Suss, Joel (Bank of England); Angeli, Marilena (Bank of England); Eckley, Peter (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Using a novel regulatory dataset, we study board and senior manager diversity of gender, age and nationality in UK banks. Gender diversity increased steadily over the last two decades, albeit from a very low base and to only 20% by the end of 2020. Moreover, we find evidence of a ‘glass ceiling’, with the proportion of females increasing more slowly in the most influential roles. Age and nationality diversity changed less over time. Empirical results suggest that gender and nationality diversity are related to positive risk and performance outcomes, whereas the reverse is true for age diversity. However, these findings are derived from analysing differences between banks, which exhibit substantially more variation than changes in diversity within banks over time. When we only exploit variation in diversity within banks, we do not find any relationship between diversity and outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Diversity; bank risk; supervision |
| JEL: | G21 M14 |
| Date: | 2021–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0929&r= |
| By: | Leo S.F. Lin (The University of Southern Mississippi, USA,) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a preliminary study analyzing the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in the People’s Republic of China’s grand strategy. This paper examines the discourse on the role of artificial intel-ligence in China and how it fits into China’s grand strategy policies. Particularly, this paper will fo-cus on three grand strategy themes: leader’s perception, grand strategy means, and grand strategy ends. China’s evolving national interests and strategic ideas are the central concern for its grand strategy. Beijing has the most ambitious AI strategy of all nations and provides the most resources for AI development. Since 2017, the development of AI has become part of China’s grand strategy plans settings out goals to build a domestic artificial intelligence industry. The AI sector has turned into a national priority which was included in President Xi Jinping’s grand vision for China. China’s goals are to make the country “the world’s premier artificial intelligence innovation center for AI†by 2030. Ultimately, AI will foster a new national leadership and establish the key fundamentals for great economic power. There are many AI applications in several grand strategy means, including military and economic policies. This paper uses a qualitative content analysis method to examine the case. Data was collected from Chinese leaders’ speeches, government statements, official publi-cations, and Chinese state media. This paper concludes that AI will become one of the key compo-nents in China’s grand strategy means, including economic, military, and intelligence capabilities. By promoting AI technology, China’s grand strategy ends are to maintain national power, national face, and international reputations. |
| Keywords: | China’s grand strategy, Artificial intelligence, China dream |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01240&r= |
| By: | Heng Chen; Walter Engert; Marie-Hélène Felt; Kim P. Huynh; Gradon Nicholls; Daneal O'Habib; Julia Zhu |
| Abstract: | We use consumer surveys conducted in April, July and November 2020 to study how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the demand for cash and the use of various methods of payment. Continuing from Chen et al. (2020, 2021), we use data from the Bank Note Distribution System (BNDS) to track how the amount of cash in circulation changed throughout 2020. The November 2020 survey included a three-day payment diary. We compare this diary with similar diaries from 2009, 2013 and 2017 to study long-term trends in cash use and payment methods. |
| Keywords: | Bank notes; Central bank research; Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Digital currencies and fintech; Econometric and statistical methods |
| JEL: | C12 E4 O54 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:21-12&r= |
| By: | Jake Anders (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Lindsey Macmillan (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Patrick Sturgis (LSE Department of Methodology); Gill Wyness (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities) |
| Abstract: | While the health risks of Covid-19 for young people are low, they have borne a heavy cost of the pandemic through intense disruption to their education and social lives. These effects have not been experienced equally across social and demographic groups. Using data from a nationally representative survey of 4,000 young people linked to their education records, we study inequalities in young people's experiences of the Covid-19 pandemic. We find particularly stark inequalities by socio-economic status, with young people from poorer families facing disadvantage on multiple fronts, particularly in their experiences of home learning, returning to school, and exam cancellations compared to more advantaged young people. Gender and ethnic inequalities were more mixed, though young females reported significantly lower wellbeing scores than males. This evidence suggests that the pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities, meaning policymakers concerned with increasing equity and social mobility now face an even bigger task than before. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; socio-economic status; gender; ethnicity; wellbeing; inequality. |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:21-08&r= |
| By: | Riccardo Colantuono (University of Siena, Regulation for Sustainability (R4S), Italy) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the current status of the civil aviation industry in the context of two market-based measures designed for the mitigation of CO2 emissions: the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). These mechanisms are central in the challenge to decarbonize aviation and their principles, structure and coexistence perspectives will be the object of this article. In the first section of this study the status of the aviation industry in the EU ETS will be described. After a brief explanation regarding the basic functioning of the scheme, a historical perspective will allow to understand how and why aviation has come to a privileged position in the EU ETS, meaning that the system is failing to apply the appropriate price on the sector’s emissions which have continued to grow exponentially in the last decade as a consequence of this deficiency. Consequently, some policy suggestions that may correct this issue will be discussed. The second section analyzes another market-based mitigation mechanism: the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). CORSIA is a global scheme adopted in 2016 by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), which is a United Nations agency. CORSIA has commenced its operations in January 2021 and its historical developments, structure and functioning system will be analyzed thoroughly in this study. However, scholars and observers have highlighted several issues in its functioning mechanisms that could significantly reduce its effectiveness. These hindrances will be identified and explored in the third section of this study, and may be listed as it follows: voluntary nature and lack of enforcement, issues inherent to offsetting, issues with the rules concerning SAFs, issues with ICAO transparency and industry influence and the decision taken by ICAO to change the baseline year as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The final part of this study is subsequently devoted to comparing CORSIA, the EU ETS and perspectives about their coexistence, as at European level policy options regarding their relationship are currently in the process of being designed. In fact, a proposal for a regulation concerning these issues is currently being discussed in the European Commission and is expected to be adopted in the second quarter of the current year. Once this legislative decision is taken, the challenge of addressing aviation’s climate impact from a market-based standpoint may be a step closer. |
| Keywords: | Emission trading scheme |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:0921&r= |
| By: | Arezki, Rabah (African Development Bank & Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government); Simeon Djankov, Simeon (London School of Economics & Peterson Institute for International Economics); Nguyen, Ha (Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank); Yotzov, Ivan (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Using a new dataset of 198 national elections across 48 democracies, this paper is the first to systematically examine the effects of oil price shocks on incumbents’ political fortunes in developed oil-importing countries. We find that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents and increase the likelihood of changes in the ideology of the incoming government. These shocks are found to operate through lowering consumption growth |
| Keywords: | Elections ; Incumbent ; Oil Prices ; Economic Shocks JEL Classification: D72 ; E21 ; P16 ; Q43 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1362&r= |
| By: | Costola, Michele; Lorusso, Marco |
| Abstract: | We examine the connectedness in the energy commodities sector and the Russian stock market over the period 2005-2020 using the variance decomposition approach. Our analysis identifies the booms and busts in the correspondence of political and war episodes that are related to spillover effects in the Russian economy, as well as the energy commodities markets. Our findings show that the Russian Oil & Gas and Metals & Mining sectors are net shock contributors of crude oil and have the highest spillovers to other Russian sectors. Furthermore, we disentangle the sources of spillovers that originated from the financial and energy commodity markets and find that a positive change in the energy commodity volatility spillover is associated with an increase in Russian geopolitical uncertainty. Finally, we show that the spread of COVID-19 increases the stock market volatility spillover, whereas it lowers the energy commodity volatility spillover. |
| Keywords: | Spillover Effects, Russian Stock Market, Russian Sectoral Indices, Commodity Markets, International Financial Markets |
| JEL: | C3 C58 E44 G1 |
| Date: | 2021–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108990&r= |
| By: | Estella Achinko (The Women’s Welfare Foundation (WoWF), Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | Recently, there has been a surge in female immigration from Africa to the Middle East, joining the global movement of migrants, while, constituting the dangers and feminist dilemmas posed by the rise in African women’s migration. Sub-Saharan African women face challenges as labor migrants in the process of leaving their home countries to the Middle East in search for job opportunities and to better their lives and families. At the center of these challenges have involved extreme dehumaniza-tion through slave labor, human trafficking, sexual exploitation while impacting their psychological and mental well being. This study analyzes the various factors that affect the migration and em-ployment of sub-Saharan African women domestic workers in the Middle East, based on both pull and push factors. The work further examines and shows how gender inequalities play a role in shaping women’s experiences in migration, and how States/governments in both the Middle East and Africa remain complicit in worsening women’s migratory experiences through laws that are be-ing established. This empirical based and theoretical discussion exposes the experiences of sub-Saharan African women through a transnational feminist lens and analysis. Also, it leads to a larger based discussion on transnational feminism and how we can construct a transnational platform that draws attention to the relationship between globalization and the international division of gendered labor. My overarching goal through this study is to draw attention to pursuing and expanding our discussions on feminist migration studies through diverse perspectives that are directed towards the empowerment of women in Africa in particular, and around the world in general. |
| Keywords: | Domestic labor, Gender, International Migration, Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, Women |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:scmowp:01235&r= |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife M.; Orbeta, Aniceto C. Jr.; Corpus, John Paul P.; Paqueo, Vicente C.; Reyes, Celia M. |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of Microenterprise Development (MD) assistance on the labor supply, income, expenditure, savings, and capital investment of beneficiaries of Pantawid Pamilya, the Philippine government’s conditional cash transfers (CCT) program. The assistance is provided by the Sustainable Livelihood Program (SLP) of the Department of Social Welfare and Development. MD assistance consists of capacity building, group formation, and grants. We focus on MD assistance where the grant component consisted of the Seed Capital Fund (SCF)--a grant worth a maximum of PhP10,000 per beneficiary household used as startup capital or as additional capital for microenterprise. The microenterprise may be run individually or as a group. The evaluation is implemented through a matching design: SCF-recipient CCT households from January 2018 to June 2018 were matched with nonrecipient CCT households. We use data from a survey of 2,592 CCT households in 39 cities/municipalities. In our sample, 91 percent of SCF-recipient households were part of a group-managed business project. We find positive impacts on labor supply, but imprecisely estimated null impacts on household income, expenditure, savings, and capital expenditure. The lack of pre-intervention variables for matching, possible biases from self-selection and nonrandom selection of target areas, possible spillover effects, and insufficient power are some of the weaknesses of the study. Despite these limitations, qualitative data on business project implementation point to serious issues which support the null impacts found on household welfare. These include a substantial business closure rate, lack of participation among group members in business operation, lack of earning opportunities for group members, management issues, and low profitability. Moreover, cost-benefit analysis suggests that program costs outweigh program benefits. To improve SLP's effectiveness, the study recommends packaging the livelihood assistance with supporting interventions such as life skills coaching and savings promotion; recognizing the relative merits of group-based versus individual livelihood projects; improving project development and selection towards greater commercial viability; and strengthening existing supporting interventions such as capacity-building, business monitoring, and technical support. <p>Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | social protection, livelihood, microenterprise, Sustainable Livelihood Program |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-36&r= |
| By: | James Malcomson |
| Abstract: | Employees are divided into grades. Toyota places suppliers into only a small number of categories. This paper shows that grouping of privately informed and persistent agent types arises naturally in relational incentive contracts when agent type is continuous. Malcomson (2016) showed that full separation is not possible if, following full revelation of an agent's type, payoffs for principal and agent are on the Pareto frontier. |
| Keywords: | persistent private information, renegotiation-proofness, type pooling, relational incentive contracts |
| Date: | 2021–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:941&r= |
| By: | Tamele, Barbora; Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro; Litardi, Chiara; Howes, John; Steinmann, Eike; Todt, Daniel |
| Abstract: | In the light of fears that the SARS-CoV-2 virus might be transmitted via cash – fears that were stoked by statements in the media and from public authorities – this paper aims to address the following issues: (1) to provide a descriptive account of the change in the circulation of euro banknotes and the use of cash in transactions during the pandemic; and (2) to assess the survivability of the virus on cash and the potential transmission risks. The pandemic has caused a significant increase in demand for cash as a store of value but a decrease in the use of cash in transactions. Although citizens reported using cash less in transactions partly out of fear of infection, research confirms that the risk of the virus being transmitted by banknotes and coins is very low. This supports the findings from the scientific community concluding that SARS-CoV-2 mainly spreads via respiratory fluids and airborne transmission, and that surfaces play a very minor role. JEL Classification: I10, I12, E41, E58 |
| Keywords: | banknotes, cash demand, cash use, coins, COVID-19 pandemic, safety, SARS-CoV-2 virus, survivability, transferability |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021259&r= |
| By: | Saccal, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | The formal differentiation of (i) pain incentives from ordinary rewards, (ii) of effortful from careful production and (iii) of diligent from slothful workers under labour market imperfect competition ultimately suggests that the optimal menu of contracts associates inducements to production kinds following the preference triggered by slothful workers: effortful production with pain incentives and careful production with ordinary rewards. The efficiency of the efficiency wage as interpreted by the sociological theory is therefore discerned to arise under a particular production kind and so is that of slavery its dual (undoubtedly illicit). More broadly, the confusion of the two production kinds under market and state capitalism respectively contributes to the Phillips curve and price rigidity, in the misapplication of ordinary rewards to effortful production. State capitalism jurisprudentially eliminates the risks of dismissal and redundancy and thereby lastly causes effortful production to enter stagnation. |
| Keywords: | care; diligence; efficiency; effort; pain; production; rewards; scourging; slavery; sloth; wages. |
| JEL: | D02 D24 D41 D42 D86 E11 E12 E13 E23 E31 E32 J41 N20 N30 O43 P10 P20 P22 P30 P37 P51 P52 |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108969&r= |
| By: | Ethan B. Kapstein (Princeton University and Arizona State University); Adityamohan Tantravahi (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Among its many deleterious effects on social well-being, violent conflict can undermine the economies of the countries in which it is ongoing. From a macroeconomic perspective, internal conflict can lead to reduced investment, output, and growth. We show that it can also increase the borrowing costs on government-issued debt. Speciï¬ cally, we examine the effects of crime-related homicides on the spread between the monetary policy rate and short-term Mexican treasury bills, called †CETES,†during the period 2010-2017. We show that homicides have a statistically signiï¬ cant effect on the spread, and in drawing a connection between violence and interest rates, we make a novel contribution to the literature on the macroeconomic effects of conflict. |
| Keywords: | Mexico, Conflict, Crime, Political Economy, Development, State Fragility |
| JEL: | E52 F52 O54 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:26&r= |
| By: | Armin Falk (briq –Institute on Behavior & Inequality and University of Bonn); Thomas Neuber (University of Bonn); Philipp Strack (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We study response behavior in surveys and show how the explanatory power of selfreports can be improved. First, we develop a choice model of survey response behavior under the assumption that the respondent has imperfect self-knowledge about her individual characteristics. In panel data, the model predicts that the variance in responses for different characteristics increases in self-knowledge and that the variance for a given characteristic over time is non-monotonic in self-knowledge. Importantly, the ratio of these variances identifies an individual’s level of self-knowledge, i.e., the latter can be inferred from observed response patterns. Second, we develop a consistent and unbiased estimator for self-knowledge based on the model. Third, we run an experiment to test the model’s main predictions in a context where the researcher knows the true underlying characteristics. The data confirm the model’s predictions as well as the estimator’s validity. Finally, we turn to a large panel data set, estimate individual levels of self-knowledge, and show that accounting for differences in self-knowledge significantly increases the explanatory power of regression models. Using a median split in self-knowledge and regressing risky behaviors on self-reported risk attitudes, we find that the R2 can be multiple times larger for above- than below-median subjects. Similarly, gender differences in risk attitudes are considerably larger when restricting samples to subjects with high self-knowledge. These examples illustrate how using the estimator may improve inference from survey data. |
| Keywords: | survey research, rational inattention, lab experiment, non-cognitive skills, preferences |
| JEL: | C83 D83 C91 D91 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:106&r= |
| By: | Philippe Bich (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julien Fixary (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We determine the topological structure of the graph of pairwise stable weighted networks. As an application, we obtain that for large classes of polynomial payoff functions, there exists generically an odd number of pairwise stable networks. This improves the results in Bich and Morhaim ([5]) or in Herings and Zhan ([14]), and can be applied to many existing models, as for example to the public good provision model of Bramoullé and Kranton ([8]), the information transmission model of Calvó-Armengol ([9]), the two-way flow model of Bala and Goyal ([2]), or Zenou-Ballester's key-player model ([3]). |
| Keywords: | Weighted Networks,Pairwise Stable Networks Correspondence,Generic oddness |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03287524&r= |
| By: | Humberto Barreto (Department of Economics and Management, DePauw University) |
| Abstract: | Teaching introductory economics is difficult because students often do not have the terminology and tools needed to understand economics concepts and models. To communicate these ideas, the successful principles instructor must prioritize concreteness and avoid abstraction. Spreadsheets offer clear visual displays of data and theoretical results, making them a natural way to teach introductory economics and develop true competency. Two Excel add-ins, FRED and Solver, are highlighted in examples that can be integrated easily into any principles of microeconomics course. A macro-enabled workbook to introduce the idea of emergent order is provided (http://academic.depauw.edu/~hbarreto/working/LangtonsAnt/LangtonsAnt.xlsm) and a few online resources for teaching with spreadsheets are also mentioned. Integrating spreadsheet-based pedagogy into a principles of microeconomics course will improve learning outcomes. |
| Keywords: | spreadsheet, FRED, Solver, add-in, data, optimization |
| JEL: | A2 C0 D0 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dew:wpaper:2021-01&r= |
| By: | Bernd Hayo (University of Marburg); Pierre-Guillaume Meon (Universite libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | An experiment using a representative survey of the German population shows that letting respondents report a number rather than asking them to choose from a list of predefined ranges lowers the response rate for both perceived past and expected inflation and decreases (increases) reported past (expected) inflation. Income, education, gender, objective and subjective knowledge about monetary policy, and political affiliation affect the effect’s size but not its sign. East and West German respondents who were 15 or older when the Berlin Wall fell have reactions different from those who were younger at that time, which supports the ‘impressionable years’ hypothesis based on different inflation experiences. |
| Keywords: | Inflation perception, inflation expectation, survey question design, Germany, household survey, impressionable years hypothesis |
| JEL: | E52 E58 Z1 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202127&r= |
| By: | Sanjay Jain |
| Abstract: | While there is general agreement that regulatory avoidance is an important part of firms' decisions to produce in the informal sector, there is much less agreement on how regulation and enforcement affect firms' decisions on, inter alia, which sector they locate in, their employment decisions, and whether to transition from one sector to another. In this paper, we focus on this set of questions: how does the regulatory regime affect these sectoral location decisions by firms? |
| Keywords: | Informal sector, Regulation, Spillovers, Informal work, Regulatory, Output |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-123&r= |
| By: | Chau, Nancy H.; Garip, Filiz; Oritz-Bobea, Ariel |
| Abstract: | We study the self-selection of migrants at crossing locations along the Mexican-U.S. border distinguished by stark differences in physiography and border enforcement intensities. We model the triggers of hazardous crossings, and reveal self-selection patters that are alternative-specific: individuals with low economic prospects at origin communities are favorably selected at high-risk, high-reward crossing locations. Using comprehensive migrant journey level trajectories from the Mexican Migration Project (1980-2005), and identification based on enforcement reforms, community-level trade and weather shocks, as well as migrant-specificc characteristics, we estimate a McFadden choice model of border crossing. Results confirm the negative-selection of migrants in high-risk, high-likelihood of success border crossing locations, in addition to nuanced variations when economic shocks are idiosyncratic rather than permanent. The implications of these observations on the effectiveness of border walls and trade walls in mediating cross-border migration flows are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cudaeb:312520&r= |
| By: | Baje, Lora Kryz C.; Ballesteros, Marife M.; Bayuday-Dacuycuy, Connie; Ancheta, Jenica A. |
| Abstract: | Cognizant of the value and contribution, as well as of the challenges in the agricultural finance, the government has intensified its lending programs designed to help the agricultural sector, specifically, the smallholders. Thus, affordable and easy access retail lending has intensified in recent years. Despite these efforts, significant problems remain. These include the lack of markets and low prices, which have significant implications on the overall repayment capacity and credit rating of the small farmer and fisherfolk (SFF). Indeed, these lending programs are unlikely to become successful if financing and production are not viewed in the bigger context of a value chain financing. Thus, this paper looks into the SFF’s financing ecosystem and provides recommendations on how the existing value chain financing can become more inclusive and sustainable. <p>Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, Philippines, agricultural financing, agricultural value chain financing, small farmer and fisherfolk |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-38&r= |
| By: | Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Francisco-Abrigo, Kris; Uy, Jhanna; Haw, Nel Jason |
| Abstract: | The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic that has infected at least 1.2 million people and caused more than 67,000 deaths worldwide. The Philippines has recorded 3,764 confirmed cases and 177 deaths as of April 7, 2020 and has implemented an enhanced Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) from March 17 to April 30 in attempts to limit population movement and curb the spread of the epidemic. <p>Based on the disease transmission model, it is projected that aggressive efforts in the post-ECQ period to isolate at least 70 percent of infectious cases through better contact tracing, social distancing, individual or household isolation, and reduced delays in time to seek care for symptomatic cases are necessary to suppress the outbreak. Otherwise, lifting the ECQ but maintaining current conditions of delayed time to seek care for symptomatic cases merely delays the progression of the outbreak but still results in around 8 percent of the population infected. <p>For all scenarios that do not successfully isolate at least 70 percent of infectious individuals, demands for healthcare resources at the peak of the outbreak, i.e., by August 2020, far exceed available supply in the health sector. <p>The COVID-19 epidemic is expected to affect not only the country’s health system but also the economy. Projections based on a Leontief input-output model suggest that the Philippine economy may lose between 276.3 billion (best case) and PHP 2.5 trillion (worse case) due to COVID-19. The transport, storage, and communication sector, among others, is expected to suffer substantial losses because of expected declines in tourism (PHP 11.7-124.3 billion). Extending the ECQ by one more month may potentially cost the Philippine economy at least PHP 150 billion due to possible declines in household consumption as workers remain unemployed for longer periods. <p>Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, COVID-19, Coronavirus Disease 2019, disease transmission, Philippine health system, health system resource requirements, macroeconomic impact |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-15&r= |
| By: | Reinhold Heinlein (University of the West of England); Scott M. R. Mahadeo (University of Portsmouth) |
| Abstract: | Oil and US stock market shocks are expected to be relevant for Canadian equities, as Canada is an oil-exporter adjacent to the US. We evaluate how the relationship between Canadian stock market indices and such external shocks change under extraordinary events. To do this, we subject statistically identified oil and S&P 500 market shocks to a surprise filter, which detects shocks with the greatest magnitude occurring over a given lookback period; and an outlier filter, which detects extrema shocks that exceed a normal range. Then, we examine how the dependence structure between shocks and Canadian equities change under the extreme surprise and outlier episodes through various co-moment spillover tests. Our results show that co-moments beyond correlation are important in reflecting the changes occurring in the relationships between external shocks and Canadian equities in extreme events. Additionally, the differences in findings under extreme positive and negative shocks provide evidence for asymmetric spillover effects from the oil and US stock markets to Canadian equities. Moreover, the observed heterogeneity in the relationships between disaggregated Canadian equities and shocks in the crude oil and S&P 500 markets are useful to policymakers for revealing sector-specific vulnerabilities, and provide portfolio diversification opportunities for investors to exploit. |
| Keywords: | Canada; oil market; spillover; stock market |
| JEL: | C32 G15 Q43 |
| Date: | 2021–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2021-07&r= |
| By: | Coad, Alexander; Domnick, Clemens; Flachenecker, Florian; Harasztosi, Peter; Janiri, Mario Lorenzo; Pál, Rozália; Teruel Carrizosa, Mercedes |
| Abstract: | High-Growth Enterprises (HGEs) have a large economic impact, but are notoriously hard to predict. Previous research has linked high-growth episodes to the configuration of lumpy indivisible resources inside firms, such that high capacity utilisation levels might stimulate future growth. We theorize that firms reaching critically high capacity utilisation levels reach a 'trigger point' involving either broad-based investment in further growth, or shrinking back to previous levels. We analyse EIBIS survey data (matched to ORBIS) which features a question on time-varying capacity utilisation. Overcapacity is a transitory state. Firms enter into overcapacity after a period of rapid growth of sales and profits, and the years surrounding overcapacity have higher employment growth rates. Firms operating at overcapacity make incremental investments (e.g. capacity expansion, process improvements, and modern machinery) rather than investing in R&D and new product development. We find support for the 'fork in the road' hypothesis: for some firms, overcapacity is associated with launching into massive investments and subsequent sales growth, while for other firms, overcapacity is negatively related to both investments and sales growth. |
| Keywords: | High-Growth Enterprises (HGEs),firm growth,investment,capacity utilisation,trigger points |
| JEL: | L25 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eibwps:202108&r= |
| By: | Pedro A. Cabra-Acela |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I examine the conditions under which rewarding honest taxpayers is an optimal mechanism to reduce tax evasion and improve collection. My theoretical model suggests that when it is expensive to audit contributors, and moral (or pecuniary) evasion cost is high enough, rewarding tax compliance is an effective strategy to increase collection. I provide empirical evidence from Argentina’s province variation of rewards policies and tax collection. Where the data suggests that theoretical conditions hold, I find a positive effect in real estate per capita tax collection between 0.4 and more than 2 standard deviations. |
| Keywords: | Tax evasion, good taxpayer, rewards, fiscal policy, Argentina. |
| JEL: | H21 H26 H30 |
| Date: | 2021–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019419&r= |
| By: | Robert Hill; Tim Köhler (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has had severe and potentially long-lasting impacts on the South African economy since the onset of the national lockdown in March 2020. These effects have not been equally distributed. Employment effects have been disproportionately felt by several vulnerable groups, including women. However, few authors have examined the outcomes of those who retained their jobs, especially in developing countries. In this light, this paper uses new representative survey data to investigate whether gender wage inequality has deepened among job retainers in South Africa. We estimate the conditional and unconditional gender wage gaps at the mean, showing that women earned 29% less than men per hour prior to South Africa’s national lockdown, expanding to 43% less during June 2020. We proceed to use Recentred Influence Function (RIF) regressions to estimate the gender wage gap across the wage distribution given evidence of heterogeneity in South Africa. We find that the gap exists at almost all points of the distribution in both periods, but it has deepened significantly amongst the poorest 40% of earners. This finding is robust to a reweighting sample selection correction. We argue that this increased wage inequality was driven by a reduction in working hours amongst women relative to men due to an increased childcare burden during the lockdown. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, NIDS-CRAM, Wave 2, South Africa, gender wage inequality Recentred Influence Function (RIF) regressions, lockdown |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202101&r= |
| By: | naryono, endang (STIE PASIM SUKABUMI) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia is one of the countries where the spread of COVID-19 is one of the highest in the world with an average daily from June to July 2021 of 14,000 people who are positive for COVID-19, which so far has touched 2.3 million people with a cure rate of 84% and a mortality rate of 2.6%. The increase in the number of people who are positive for COVID-19 has made the government's burden even heavier. The most crucial problem is the availability of beds, at the national level the hospital occupancy rate has been above 80% so that many hospitals are no longer accepting COVID-19 patients, limited oxygen and health workers are obstacles that must be addressed as soon as possible. The government's policy of implementing an emergency PSBB on the island of Java as a solution in reducing the positive Covid-19 has been effective, although there are still many weaknesses that must be evaluated. Emergency policies to deal with covid-19 patients who cannot be handled by hospitals using the concept of telemedicine with patients being treated at home by being provided with online consultation facilities, drugs ordered and delivered for free through online media, this concept is considered the most effective in an emergency pandemic case. this covid-19. |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:uk9pq&r= |
| By: | TOMIURA Eiichi; ITO Banri; KUMANOMIDO Hiroshi |
| Abstract: | Among various effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, reductions in face-to-face contact are likely to have deep impacts on a wide range of issues, including personal work styles, inter-firm transactions, and locations of firms. We conducted a survey of all medium or large-sized firms in manufacturing and wholesale industries in Japan to collect information on their reduction of face-to-face contact by such means as holding online meetings and instituting teleworking. We questioned them on their adoptions at the following four points in time: December 2019, before the pandemic; April/May 2020, under the first state of emergency; September/October, after the introduction of subsidies for travelling; and January 2021, under the second state of emergency in some regions. The survey results show that substantially more firms began using online meetings and teleworking, but significant variation continued across firms even under the second state of emergency. Firms that had been digitized or globalized before the pandemic tended to be especially active in introducing measures for reducing face-to-face contacts. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:21031&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | AROA proposes a philosophical, ideological and methodological reversal of the usual economic and statistical analyses. International experts still have knowledge based on the values they have been taught in the past and which they constantly reproduce. The statistical methods that underlie economic and political decisions only take into account market values, which are subject to manipulation that influences all economic agents. The famous catching up of development in stages is only a delusion at a time in history when great environmental and human damage has been committed by the economic actors of a greedy capitalism that is not interested in the living conditions of people or their survival. Under these conditions, Africa must build its own instruments to measure the progress of its national economies against the needs of its people and citizens. |
| Abstract: | Le RASA propose un renversement philosophique, idéologique et méthodologique des analyses économiques et statistiques habituelles. Les experts internationaux ont toujours un savoir porté par les valeurs qui leur ont été enseignées par le passé et qu'ils reproduisent constamment. Les méthodes statistiques qui sont à la base de décisions économiques et politiques ne prennent en compte que les valeurs du marché, lesquelles font l'objet de manipulations qui influencent tous les agents économiques. Le fameux rattrapage du développement en étapes n'est qu'un leurre en un moment de l'histoire où de forts dégâts environnementaux et humains ont été commis par les acteurs économiques d'un capitalisme cupide qui ne s'intéresse ni aux conditions de vie des hommes, ni à leur survie. Dans ces conditions, l'Afrique doit construire ses propres instruments afin de mesurer le progrès de ses économies nationales à l'aune des besoins de sa population et de ses citoyens. |
| Keywords: | economic development statistical,economic development statistical index,AROA,Africa,Afrique |
| Date: | 2021–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03277105&r= |
| By: | Matteo Picchio (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali - Universita' Politecnica delle Marche); Mattia Filomena (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali - Universita' Politecnica delle Marche) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a meta-analysis on the effects of retirement on health. We select academic papers published between 2000 and 2021 studying the impact of retirement on physical and mental health, self-assessed general health, healthcare utilization and mortality. Among 275 observations from 85 articles, 28% (13%) find positive (negative) effects of retirement on health outcomes. Almost 60% of the observations do not provide statistically significant findings. Using meta-regression analysis, we checked for the presence of publication bias after distinguishing among different journal subject areas and, once correcting for it, we find that the average effect of retirement on health outcomes is small and barely significant. We apply several model averaging techniques to explore possible sources of heterogeneity and our results suggest that the different estimated effects can be explained by the differences in both health measurements and retirement schemes. |
| Keywords: | Retirement; health; meta-analysis; meta-regression; publication bias. |
| JEL: | I10 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:458&r= |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | In this report, CBO provides additional detail about its projections of the federal budget and the U.S. economy under current law for this year and the decade that follows. (Those projections were published on July 1, 2021.) The projected deficit for 2021 is $3.0 trillion. Over the 2022–2031 period, projected deficits are much smaller, though still large by historical standards. |
| JEL: | E20 E23 E60 E62 E66 H20 H60 H61 H62 H63 H68 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:57263&r= |
| By: | Reyes, Celia M.; Arboneda, Arkin A.; Vargas, Anna Rita P. |
| Abstract: | The Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS), which is an organized technology-based system of collecting, processing and validating local-level data based on a census of households in the locality, was institutionalized by virtue of Republic Act No. 11315 in April 2019. This paper aims to illustrate uses of the CBMS in relation to the planning process of local government units. The study finds that since the CBMS provides disaggregated local-level data, local planners can use the CBMS to better identify and target vulnerable members of the society. Regular conduct of CBMS also offers the possibility of generating panel data, which can help monitor the impact of policies and programs on vulnerable households in the long run. Moreover, geotagging of households also support local officials in locating those at risk from natural hazards. <p> Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | local government units, Comprehensive Development Plan, community-based monitoring system, Local planning process, RA 7160 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-50&r= |
| By: | Domingo, Sonny N.; Umlas, Anna Jennifer L.; Zuluaga, Katrina Mae C. |
| Abstract: | Crop climate calendars augment traditional crop calendars by not only specifying planting and harvest schedules but also describing phenological states, cultivation practices and weather and climate requirements that any crop faces throughout a cropping season. The case to document this information in Benguet is compelling: The mountainous province experiences a unique microclimate and phenomena such as frost and hail and derives income from the cultivation of high value crops such as carrots, cabbage and potatoes amidst this. The researchers conducted focus group discussions with the municipal agriculturalists and farmer leaders in Atok, Benguet to understand their experiences and from there construct their crop climate calendar. The calendars produced in this exercise may serve as a solid foundation for the analysis of the community’s climate-sensitive agricultural decisions. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, crop climate calendar, high value crops, weather and climate information, decision analysis |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-09&r= |
| By: | Alonso Alfaro Urena (Banco Central de Costa Rica and Universidad de Costa Rica); Isabela Manelici (Princeton University); Jose P. Vasquez (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of multinational corporations (MNCs) on workers. To that end, we combine microdata on all formal worker-firm and firm-firm relationships in Costa Rica with an instrumental variable approach that exploits shocks to the size of MNCs in the country. First, using an event-study design, we find an MNC wage premium of nine percent. This premium reflects above market wages rather than compensation for disamenities. Next, we study the effects of MNCs on workers in domestic firms. As MNCs bring jobs that pay a premium, they improve outside options by altering both the level and composition of labor demand. MNCs can also enhance the performance of domestic employers through input-output linkages. Shocks to firm performance may then pass through to wages. We show that the growth rate of annual earnings of a worker experiencing a one standard deviation increase in either her labor market or firm-level exposure to MNCs is one percentage point higher than that of an identical worker with no change in either MNC exposure. Finally, we develop a model to rationalize the reduced-form evidence and estimate structural parameters that govern wage setting in domestic firms. We model MNCs as paying a wage premium and buying inputs from domestic firms. When hiring workers,firms incur recruitment and training costs. We find that workers are sensitive to improvements in outside options.Moreover, we estimate that the marginal recruitment and training cost of the average domestic firm is 90% of the annual earnings of a worker earning the competitive market wage. This high cost allows incumbent workers to extract part of the increase in firm rents coming from intensified linkages with MNCs. |
| Keywords: | Costa Rica |
| JEL: | F23 F16 J21 J23 J31 J63 M55 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:285&r= |
| By: | Bogatzki, Tamara |
| Abstract: | Kollektivistische Gesellschaften verfügen über ein höheres gemeinschaftsspezifisches Sozialkapital als individualistische Gesellschaften. Dieses gesellschaftsspezifische Sozialkapital macht das Verlassen der Gemeinschaft kostspieliger, kann jedoch anteilig zurückgewonnen werden, wenn Individuen in Zielländer mit entsprechenden Diasporen migrieren. Die Forschungsarbeit zeigt, dass eine höhere gegenseitige soziale Abhängigkeit im Herkunftsland die Wichtigkeit von Netzwerken für die Selektion in 30 OECD Zielländer signifikant steigert. Der Effekt ist konsistent über verschiedene empirische Spezifikationen hinweg. Für Migrant*innen aus kollektivistischen Herkunftsländern ist der Netzwerkeffekt bis zu doppelt zu groß wie für Migrant*innen aus individualistischen Herkunftsländern. Ein vergleichbares Muster zeigt sich für allgemeines Vertrauen, das in kollektivistischeren Kulturen niedriger ist und den vorgeschlagenen Sozial-KapitalMechanismus stützt. |
| Keywords: | Internationale Migration,Kulturökonomik,Wirtschaftsökonomik,Kollektivismus,Individualismus,Migrationsnetzwerke,Sozialkapital,International Migration,Cultural Economics,Economic Sociology,Collectivism,Individualism,Migration Networks,Social Capital |
| JEL: | F22 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmit:spvi2021102&r= |
| By: | Andrew Usher; Edona Reshidi; Francisco Rivadeneyra; Scott Hendry |
| Abstract: | In this paper we discuss the competition and innovation arguments for issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). A CBDC could be an effective competition policy tool for payments. On innovation, we argue that a CBDC could be necessary to support the vibrancy of the digital economy by helping solve market failures and fostering competition and innovation in new digital payments markets. Overall, competition and innovation are supporting arguments for issuing a CBDC. |
| Keywords: | Digital currencies and fintech; Financial institutions; Financial stability |
| JEL: | E58 L5 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:21-11&r= |
| By: | Caitlin Allen Whitehead; Haroon Bhorat; Robert Hill; Tim Köhler; François Steenkamp (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the potential employment displacement effects of technologies related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) on the MER sector, by observing this risk through the lens of the task content of occupations or the routinisation hypothesis. We use network analytics to develop a MER sector occupation space, which shows the occupational structure of the MER sector labour force. Given the occupational structure of the sector, we identify occupations at high risk of displacement – i.e. what tasks, and hence what occupations, are most at risk of being automatated, computerised or digitised. Drawing on household survey data, we explore the characteristics of workers who occupy these high risk occupations in an attempt at identifying a typology of individuals most likely to be deleteriously impacted on by 4IR technologies. Three implications emerge: Firstly, technology induced employment displacement is likely to jeopardise low- to medium-skill employment in the production cluster occupations, and correspondingly result in an increase in relative demand for semi- and high-skilled nonproduction cluster occupations. Second, the non-random distribution of high risk occupations across the two clusters of the occupation space suggests that the skill transition to shift workers from high to low risk occupations is long, and in the event of substantial uptake of employment displacing technologies across the sector, technological unemployment is that much harder to mitigate. Third, the relatively high employment share associated with high risk occupations in the production cluster indicates that the potential displacement effects resulting in technological unemployment are likely to be substantial. |
| Keywords: | Automation; employment; manufacturing; fourth industrial revolution; task content of occupations; technology |
| JEL: | O13 O14 O25 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202106&r= |
| By: | Ibrahim D. Raheem (The EXCAS, Liege, Beligium); Kazeem B. Ajide (University of Lagos, Nigeria); Xuan V. Vo (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | The trilogy among economic growth, social capital (SC), and financial development is examined based on three hypotheses: first, SC is important in the finance-growth nexus. Second, there is a threshold effect of SC in the finance-growth nexus. Third, the SC-finance-growth trilogy depends on the countries' income level. Building dataset for 70 countries,someinteresting results were obtained: (i) the marginal effects of both SC and finance promotes economic growth at higher levels; (ii)there is evidence of a threshold effect of SC, as finance enhances more growth when SC is below the threshold level; (iii) higher-income countries tend not to benefit from the SC-finance-growth trilogy. These results suggest that the influence of SC on growth trajectory is exaggerated in the literature. The study recommends that policymakers should pursue other sources of economic growth aside SC, while ensuring that the level of SC does not deteriorate. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, Financial development, Social capital, and Threshold effect |
| JEL: | O43 G20 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/050&r= |
| By: | Jongrim Ha; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska Ohnsorge |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation; and gross domestic product deflator changes); (ii) at multiple frequencies (monthly, quarterly and annual) for an extended time period (1970-2021); and (iii) for a large number of (up to 196) countries. As it doubles the number of observations over the next-largest publicly available sources, our database constitutes a comprehensive, single source for inflation series. We illustrate the potential use of the database with three applications. First, we study the evolution of inflation since 1970 and document the broad-based disinflation around the world over the past half-century, with global consumer price inflation down from a peak of roughly 17 percent in 1974 to 2.5 percent in 2020. Second, we examine the behavior of inflation during global recessions. Global inflation fell sharply (on average by 0.9 percentage points) in the year to the trough of global recessions and continued to decline even as recoveries got underway. In 2020, inflation declined less, and more briefly, than in any of the previous four global recessions over the past 50 years. Third, we analyze the role of common factors in explaining movements in different measures of inflation. While, across all inflation measures, inflation synchronization has risen since the early 2000s, it has been much higher for inflation measures that involve a larger share of tradable goods. |
| Keywords: | Prices, global inflation, deflation, inflation synchronization, global factor |
| JEL: | E30 E31 F42 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-59&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Cuong Viet |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine characteristics of employment in FDI in Vietnam. Workers from FDI account for 5.6% of working people. Female and younger people are more likely to work the FDI sector. Compared with private and public sectors, the FDI sector has a lower share of workers who have tertiary education. The FDI sector has a high proportion of workers with social insurance, at 95%. However, there is a relatively large proportion of the FDI workers receiving daily wages and piece payment. The FDI workers have a high number of working hours and more likely to have overtime working hours. The FDI workers have lower wages per hour than those in the private and public sector. However, once observed characteristics of workers are controlled for, the FDI workers have higher hourly and monthly wages than the private as well as public workers. The proportion of FDI workers who moved out of the FDI sector was 11% over a three-month period and 31% over a two-year period. Older workers are more likely to move out of the FDI sector than young ones. There is no evidence that workers move out of the FDI sector after age 35. |
| Keywords: | FDI,employment,labor,Vietnam |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:901&r= |
| By: | Mintu Mondal |
| Abstract: | Education brands a cultural conglomeration. A decent culture of society makes a different trajectory that directs the right path to humanity. Humanity considers the dual roles of humans. The first role deals with the physical aspects and other pacts with the cultural phenomena. The proximity of physical needs and cultural desires of a human make a society a modest one. But then again, a society conjointly plays as the agent of the biological world and as the unit geological realm that composes a competent social capital. A good social capital allows other species and nature as the fellow being of us. A proper education system can do perform an immense role to fulfil the said goal of mankind. India has made an education policy to meet humanity and dispose of the difficulties of society. The article seeks to understand how is the New Education Policy leads the nation in the right direction to cope with the limitations. It has gone through qualitative research methods. Key Words: Education, Cultural Conglomeration, Humanity, Biological World, GeologicalRealm, New Education Policy, Qualitative Research Methods. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-38-04&r= |
| By: | RUI EVANGELISTA; JOÃO ANDRADE E SILVA; ESMERALDA A. RAMALHO |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of energy efficiency along the unconditional distribution of residential property prices in Portugal. Using a dataset of more than 256,000 residential property sales from 2009 to 2013, a period that covers an economic depression, unconditional quantile regression analysis reveals that the responsiveness to energy efficiency improvements is different not only as we move from low- to high-priced residential units but also for apartments and houses. While the former show a downward trend in the magnitude of energy efficiency coefficient estimates, the opposite occurs for houses. The latter market segment exhibits clear market discounts at the lowest quantiles of the price distribution, something that is not observable thought conditional mean and quantile regression analysis. Results suggest the existence of a different responsiveness to energy efficiency improvements in the Lisbon region when compared to the rest of the country and that the impact of the Energy Performance Certificate label increases throughout time across all price quantiles. As a by-product of this paper, an unconditional quantile price index shows that the impact of the crisis was not the same across the different market segments, with price decreases being more severe for low- than high-priced properties. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency, residential property market, hedonic price models, conditional quantile regression, unconditional quantile regression |
| JEL: | C21 Q41 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01862021&r= |
| By: | Jens H. E. Christensen; Jose A. Lopez; Paul Mussche |
| Abstract: | Portfolio diversification is as important to debt management as it is to asset management. In this paper, we focus on diversification of sovereign debt issuance by examining the extension of the maximum maturity of issued debt. In particular, we examine the potential costs to the U.S. Treasury of introducing 50-year bonds as a financing option. Based on evidence from foreign government bond markets with such long-term debt, our results suggest that a 50-year Treasury bond would likely trade at an average yield that is at most 20 basis points above that of a 30-year bond. Our results based on extrapolations from a dynamic yield curve model using just U.S. Treasury yields are similar. |
| Keywords: | term structure modeling; yield extrapolation; debt management |
| JEL: | E43 E47 G12 G13 |
| Date: | 2021–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:92921&r= |
| By: | Rosa Abraham; Rahul Lahoti; Hema Swaminathan |
| Abstract: | The impact of childbirth on the labour market participation of women has been discussed extensively in the context of developed countries, constraints on mothers' labour market participation and earnings being characterized as the 'motherhood penalty'. In the developing country context, and specifically for India, similar studies are limited, primarily due to the lack of longitudinal data. |
| Keywords: | child penalty, Childbirth, event study, India, Motherhood, Labour market participation |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-128&r= |
| By: | Dirk Bergemann (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Tibor Heumann (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Stephen Morris (Dept. of Economics, MIT) |
| Abstract: | In digital advertising, a publisher selling impressions faces a trade-off in deciding how precisely to match advertisers with viewers. A more precise match generates efficiency gains that the publisher can hope to exploit. A coarser match will generate a thicker market and thus more competition. The publisher can control the precision of the match by controlling the amount of information that advertisers have about viewers. We characterize the optimal trade-off when impressions are sold by auction. The publisher pools premium matches for advertisers (when there will be less competition on average) but gives advertisers full information about lower quality matches. |
| Keywords: | Second Price Auction, Conflation, Digital Advertising, Impressions, Bayesian Persuasion, Information Design |
| JEL: | D44 D47 D83 D84 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2291&r= |
| By: | Sam Parsons (Social Research Institute, UCL); Alex Bryson (Social Research Institute, UCL); Alice Sullivan (Social Research Institute, UCL) |
| Abstract: | Using data from two British birth cohorts born in 1958 and 1970 we investigate the impact of teenage conduct problems on subsequent employment prospects through to age 42. We find teenagers with conduct problems went on to spend fewer months both in paid employment, and in employment, education and training (EET) between age 17 and 42 than comparable teenagers who did not experience conduct problems. Employment and EET disadvantages were greatest among those with severe behavioural problems. The ‘gap’ in time spent in employment or EET by conduct problem status was similar for men and women across cohorts, with only a small part of the gap being attenuated by differences in social background, individual characteristics and educational attainment in public examination at age 16. We discuss the implications of our findings. |
| Keywords: | behavioural problems, Rutter, labour market, employment, education, training, disadvantage, educational attainment |
| JEL: | I12 J20 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:2122&r= |
| By: | Salanié, François; Zaporozhets, Vera |
| Abstract: | We analyze the problem of allocating irrigation water among het- erogenous farmers when water supply is stochastic. If farmers are risk-neutral, a spot market for water is e¢ cient; while the oft-used uniform rationing system is ine¢ cient, both ex-ante and ex-post. In- deed, we show that it leads farmers to overexpose to risk, thus making shortages more severe and more frequent in case of drought. We pro- pose instead a regulation by priority classes extending Wilson (1989), and we derive an e¢ ciency result. We characterize the set of farmers that would win or loose from such a reform. We also argue that a system of priority classes may be preferred to a spot market system, because scarcity is easier to manage ex-ante than ex-post, and because this system facilitates the supply of insurance to risk-averse agents. |
| JEL: | Q15 Q25 D47 |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125835&r= |
| By: | Caitlin Allen; Zaakhir Asmal; Haroon Bhorat; Robert Hill; Jabulile Monnakgotla; Morné Oosthuizen; Chris Rooney (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | We provide a quantitative analysis of labor force survey data and conducted a survey of firms operating in IWOSS. For the quantitative, a series data on gross valueadded (GVA) and individual labor market activities data obtained from Statistics South Africa.3 We also make use of O*NET, a standardized database of skill requirements from the United States for over 1,000 occupations (O*NET, 2019). The O*NET database provides information on numerous measures such as skills, knowledge, abilities, and education levels required for a particular occupation (O*NET, 2019). The firm survey on employment potential and skill requirements supplements the results of the quantitative analysis. These firm interviews were conducted in the tourism, agro-processing, horticulture, and transit trade sectors. These four IWOSS sectors were selected based on their ability to create several types of jobs across the skills spectrum in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | Structural change, South Africa, economic growth, manufacturing, “industries without smokestacks”, IWOSS |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202102&r= |
| By: | Irene Maria Buso; Daniela Di Cagno; Werner Güth; Lorenzo Spadoni |
| Abstract: | Contributors to public goods with individual commitment power decide before voluntarily contributing, whether and when to join the (sub)group whose partners equally share the cost of their contributions. We analyse the voluntary formation of the cost sharing partnership, when it is internally (no partner wants to opt out) and externally (no outsider wants to opt in) stable, and how (un)stable partnerships affect contribution behaviour. All contributors decide between joining and not joining for all possible conditions before learning in which random sequence individual contributors successively enter or not the partnership. After being informed about whether there is no partnership and, when there is one, how many belong to it, and whether one is partner or outsider, all group members independently contribute. So participants can freeride not only by abstaining from voluntary contributions, but also by not joining the partnership. Theoretically participants would form a stable cost sharing partnership whose partners (outsiders) contribute maximally (minimally); experimental evidece shows that hardly any such benchmark behavior exists. Instead we confirm a strong inclination to join the partnership to avoid or at least weaken freeridng incentives. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous Public Good, Group Formation, Group Size. |
| JEL: | C92 H41 D85 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lui:cesare:2101&r= |
| By: | Inge Kral (Australian National University); Lyn Fasoli (Charles Darwin University); Hilary Smith (Australian National University); Barbra Meek (University of Michigan); Rowena Phair (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This Working Paper was developed to assist policy makers, education and Indigenous leaders, as well as education practitioners, to better support Indigenous children’s early learning and well-being. The paper focuses on early years policies and provision in Aotearoa New Zealand, Australia and Canada. It sets out a synthesis of evidence on children’s early development, with a particular focus on the conditions and approaches that support positive outcomes for Indigenous children. The Working Paper then outlines a set of promising initiatives that seek to create positive early learning environments for Indigenous children. Drawing on the available evidence and promising approaches, the paper presents a framework for strengthening Indigenous children’s early learning and well-being. |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:251-en&r= |
| By: | Dilip Mookherjee; Anusha Nath |
| Abstract: | Past research has provided evidence of clientelistic politics in delivery of programme benefits by local governments, or gram panchayats (GPs), and manipulation of GP programme budgets by legislators and elected officials at upper tiers in West Bengal, India. Using household panel survey data spanning 1998-2008, we examine the consequences of clientelism for distributive equity. We find that targeting of anti-poverty programmes was progressive both within and across GPs and is explained by greater 'vote responsiveness' of poor households to receipt of welfare benefits. |
| Keywords: | Clientelism, Governance, Targeting, Budget |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-125&r= |
| By: | Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Rosellon, Maureen Ane D.; Carlos, Jean Clarisse T. |
| Abstract: | In November 2015, the ASEAN Community composed of three (3) pillars: the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC), and the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) was established as a response by the ASEAN Member states to the need to develop a Post-2015 Vision of a cohesive, economically integrated, socially responsible and a truly people oriented, people -centered and rules-based ASEAN. Each pillar corresponds to a blueprint, and are part of the general master plan called ASEAN Community Vision 2025 with the theme "ASEAN 2025: Forging Ahead Together". <p>This study focuses on the AEC Blueprint 2025 and its characteristics and elements. After five years upon establishment, there is a need to assess how the Philippines has fared in achieving the key result areas in the AEC Blueprint 2025. <p>By comparing the baseline with the most recent data, this study found that the Philippines is among the middle of the pack (ranking from 4th to 6th) among the ASEAN countries. In terms of AEC vision and goals, the Philippines performance suggests that the country is generally on track and is progressing in the right direction. <p>Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN Economic Community, AEC, AEC Blueprint, ASEAN 2025 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-37&r= |
| By: | Kristian Blickle (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Markus Brunnermeier (Princeton University); Stephan Luck (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a major financial panic, the run on the German banking system in 1931, to distinguish between banking theories that view depositors as demanders of liquidity and those that view them as providers of discipline. Our empirical approach exploits the fact that the German Crisis of 1931 was system-wide with cross-sectional variation in deposit flows as well as bank distress and took place in absence of a deposit insurance scheme. We find that interbank deposit flows predict subsequent bank distress early on. In contrast, wholesale depositors are more likely to withdraw from distressed banks at later stages of the run and only after the interbank market has started to collapse. Retail deposits are—despite the absence of deposit insurance—largely stable. Our findings emphasize the heterogeneity in depositor roles, with discipline being best provided through the interbank market. |
| Keywords: | Germany |
| JEL: | G01 G21 N20 N24 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:275&r= |
| By: | Lane, Nathan |
| Abstract: | I study the impact of industrial policy on industrial development by considering a canonical intervention. Following a political crisis, South Korea dramatically altered its development strategy with a sector-specific industrial policy: the Heavy Chemical and Industry (HCI) drive, 1973-1979. With newly assembled data, I use the sharp introduction and withdrawal of industrial policies to study the impacts of industrial policy—during and after the intervention period. I show (1) HCI promoted the expansion and dynamic comparative advantage of directly targeted industries. (2) Using variation in exposure to policies through the input-output network, I show HCI indirectly benefited downstream users of targeted intermediates. (3) I find direct and indirect benefits of HCI persisted even after the end of HCI, following the 1979 assassination of the president. These effects include the eventual development of directly targeted exporters and their downstream counterparts. Together, my findings suggest that the temporary drive shifted Korean manufacturing into more advanced markets and created durable industrial change. These findings clarify lessons drawn from South Korea and the East Asian growth miracle. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy,industrial development,East Asian miracle,input-output,networks,Heavy Chemical and Industry drive,South Korea,spillovers |
| JEL: | L5 O14 O25 N6 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:235845&r= |
| By: | Thomas Radinger; Luka Boeskens |
| Abstract: | Many countries have considered extending their school days to improve students’ outcomes, promote equity or support parents to combine work and family lives. Given the impact of such reforms, identifying conditions for their successful implementation is an important concern. This working paper reviews the available evidence and synthesises common lessons from six European and Latin American countries that extended and reorganised their school days. Each case study describes the reform’s context and goals, design and implementation, and resource implications. The paper highlights that lengthening the school day might be an efficient strategy for some schools and systems, but not for others, depending on policy goals and alternatives. To reap any potential benefits, reforms need to consider the quality and articulation of the activities taking place and related adjustments to school resources. As the paper suggests, school-day extensions provide an opportunity to rethink schools as places not just for learning, but for holistic student development, engagement and support. |
| Date: | 2021–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:252-en&r= |
| By: | Satoshi Shimizutani (JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development); Eiji Yamada (JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development) |
| Abstract: | This study utilizes variations in exposure to the armed conflict to examine the long-term consequences of civil war in Tajikistan on a variety of outcomes twenty years after the end of the civil war. We confirm a negative and significant effect on completing basic education for girls exposed to the war during their school ages while other girls were able to attain higher education levels than previously. Moreover, we see adverse effects on employment status for males exposed to armed conflicts in their primary school ages and long-term effects in international migration status for those males. |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan, Civil war, Long-term consequences, Schooling, International migration |
| JEL: | D1 I2 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2021-014&r= |
| By: | Newbery, D. |
| Abstract: | Most existing renewables support schemes distort location and dispatch decisions. Many impose unnecessary risk on developers, increasing support costs. Efficient policy sets the right carbon price, supports capacity not output, ensures efficient dispatch and location. The EU bans priority dispatch and requires market-based bidding, but does not address the underlying problem that payment is conditional on generation, amplifying incentives to locate in high resource sites. This article identifies the various distortions and proposes an auctioned contract to address location and dispatch distortions: a financial Contract for Difference (CfD) with hourly contracted volume proportional to local renewable output/MW, with a life specified in MWh/MW, adjusted for regional variations in correlation with total renewable output. This yardstick CfD delivers efficient dispatch while assuring but limiting the total amount of subsidy and not over-compensating high resource sites. The revenue assurance, with a government-backed counterparty, allows high debt:equity, dramatically lowering the subsidy cost. |
| Keywords: | renewables support schemes, distortions, auctions, yardstick contracts |
| JEL: | D44 D62 D86 H23 H25 L94 Q28 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2021–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2128&r= |
| By: | Barili, Emilia; Bertoli, Paola; Grembi, Veronica; Rattini, Veronica |
| Abstract: | Relying on a unique survey of more than 15,000 respondents conducted from June to August 2020 in Italy, we show that priming religiosity in healthcare workers decreases the level of self‐assessed mental distress experienced during the first wave of the COVID‐19. We show that priming religiosity decreases self‐assessed mental distress by 9.5%. Consistent with the idea that religiosity serves as a coping mechanism, this effect is stronger for the more impacted categories (e.g., hospital workers) and for respondents facing more stressful situations, such as being reassigned due to the COVID‐19 emergency or working in a COVID‐19‐related specialty (e.g., emergency care), among others. Moreover, higher effects occurs also among physicians who self‐classify as religious, while this distinction does not apply for nurses. |
| Keywords: | Healthcare Workers, COVID‐19, Mental Health, Coping Mechanisms, Religiosity |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajt:wcinch:74583&r= |
| By: | Matthias Fahn; Takeshi Murooka |
| Abstract: | This paper theoretically investigates how an increase in the supply of homogenous workers can raise wages, generating new insights on potential drivers for the observed non-negative wage effects of immigration. We develop a model of a labor market with frictions in which firms can motivate workers only through informal incentives. A higher labor supply increases firms’ chances of filling a vacancy, which reduces their credibility to compensate workers for their effort. As a response, firms endogenously generate costs of turnover by paying workers a rent, and this rent is higher if an increase in labor supply reduces a firm’s credibility. By this effect, a higher labor supply — for example caused by immigration — can increase workers’ compensation. Moreover, an asymmetric equilibrium exists in which native workers are paid higher wages than immigrants and work harder. In such an equilibrium, an inflow of immigrants increases productivity, profits, and employment. |
| Keywords: | Informal Incentives, Labor Supply, Immigration. |
| JEL: | D21 D86 F22 J21 J61 L22 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Daizadeh, Iraj |
| Abstract: | There has been concern that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (COVID-19) crises may have stifled medical device (MD) development. However, what if a decline was expected based on some non-COVID-19 force? Since 1976, it is shown that the number of FDA MD applications and registrations (comprised of the sum of premarket notifications (PMNs) and approvals (PMAs)) follow a clear 20-year periodic structure (with two well-defined peaks and a trough), while PMNs and PMAs are aperiodic: the former flowing downwards and the latter flowing upwards. It is hypothesized that the MD industry is undergoing a radical structural change and more needs to be done to not only understand these trends but – importantly – to do something to elevate the peaks and the troughs of these metrics of innovation. |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:896vw&r= |
| By: | David Jones (University of East Anglia); Corrado Di Maria (University of East Anglia); Simone Valente (University of East Anglia) |
| Abstract: | Does financial intermediation affect structural change? We investigate both theoretically and empirically whether financial development accelerates structural change during the post-industrialization phase where employment, value-added and expenditure shares change towards services and away from manufacturing. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model where firms and households face different types of intermediation costs, and structural change can be driven by mutually independent technology differences { exogenous productivity gaps or asymmetric factor elasticities { as well as by learning-by-doing. Besides suggesting a stronger impact of financial development when productivity is endogenous and services are labor-intensive, all the model specifications robustly predict that exogenous reductions in intermediation costs { e.g., deregulation shocks { accelerate the pace and extent of structural change. We test this prediction empirically by examining the effects of state by- state bank branching deregulation in the United States in the 1970-1990s period. Using a range of estimation techniques including synthetic control methods { pooled, augmented, and with staggered treatment { we show that bank branching deregulation accelerated the structural change that was already underway, i.e., services account for a greater share of output and employment than they would have in the absence of deregulation. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, structural change, nancial development, banking deregulation |
| JEL: | O14 O16 O41 O47 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2021-06&r= |
| By: | Rani Dubey; Rekha Rani |
| Abstract: | It is critical for human beings to understand food related risks to preserve their health and the health food hygiene is vital to human of others beings therefore, knowledge and hygiene practice of food among food handlers are particularly important. Food poisoning is considered as one of the most food – related disease that takes lives, hospitalizes people and loses many society incomes. The burden of this problems varies and could affect all population in the developing countries. In a recent report of World Health Organization (WHO), kit was revealed that every year, 1.5 million cases of food borne disease reported in developing countries. Increasing the food hygiene knowledge of the food handlers, and implementing good hygienic practices remain the most effective strategies to control the burdens of foodborne diseases in any society. Food hygiene has a critical role in assuring that food stays safe at every stage of the food chain from production to harvest, processing, storage, distribution, all the way preparation and consumption, food hygiene knowledge is important as it help to protect consumer from the risk of food borne illness. It also helps to prevent consumers from risks of health related conditions such as allergy and even death. Key Words: food, hygiene, knowledge, practice |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2021-38-07&r= |
| By: | , Dahlia |
| Abstract: | Dalam hal pengertian, Hukum Pasar Modal adalah hukum yang mengatur hubungan hukum antara investor (yang memiliki dana) dengan Emiten atau Perusahaan Publik (yang membutuhkan dana) melalui Bursa Efek sebagai media tempat bertemu; sedangkan Hukum Penanaman Modal adalah hukum yang mengatur tentang bagaimana investor asing yang bermaksud menanamkan modalnya (dalam bidang usaha tertentu) di Indonesia. Penamanan modal ini tentunya bisa dilakukan secara langsung sesuai dengan ketentuan perundang-undangan yang berlaku. Dengan demikian maka terminologi ”pasar” memiliki perbedaan arti dengan terminologi ” penamanan”. Hukum Pasar Modal lebih ditujukan kepada penanaman modal tidak langsung (indirect Investment). |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:xu2pd&r= |
| By: | van Buggenum, Hugo (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:0bd7c6fc-3779-4bf3-9100-0aca198505b4&r= |
| By: | Cem Cakmakli (Koc University); Verda Ozturk (Duke University) |
| Abstract: | We propose a joint modeling strategy for timing the joint distribution of the returns and their volatility. We do this by incorporating the potentially asymmetric links into the system of ‘independent’ predictive regressions of returns and volatility, allowing for asymmetric cross-correlations, denoted as instantaneous leverage effects, in addition to cross-autocorrelations between returns and volatility, denoted as intertemporal leverage effects. We show that while the conventional intertemporal leverage effects bear little economic value, our results point to the sizeable value of exploiting the contemporaneous asymmetric link between returns and volatility. Specifically, a mean-variance investor would be willing to pay several hundred basis points to switch from the strategies based on conventional predictive regressions of mean and volatility in isolation of each other to the joint models of returns and its volatility, taking the link between these two moments into account. Moreover, our findings are robust to various effects documented in the literature. |
| Keywords: | Economic value, system of equations, leverage timing, market timing, volatility timing. |
| JEL: | C30 C52 C53 C58 G11 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2110&r= |
| By: | Adesoji O. Farayibi (University of Ibadan, Nigeria); Oludele Folarin (University of Ibadan, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | The human capital crisis, reflected in the weak global competitiveness of African education, has questioned the effectiveness of public spending in increasing educational outcomes in the continent. Thus, this article examines the impact of government education expenditure on educational outcomes in 31 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2000-2019 based on a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The study sheds light on the priorities of government education spending in the continent. Findings showed that the effect of government education spending on educational outcomes in SSA was driven by the measure of educational outcome used. Government spending in Africa had focused mainly on primary and secondary education to the detriment of tertiary education because it is convenient and generates political gains. Due to institutional rigidities which emanate from the governance structure, the inequitable allocation of government funding had made higher education in Africa less responsive to the changes in global knowledge and labour market demands. Therefore, the following policy agenda becomes imperative in the SSA: (i) government education spending should equitably target all education levels to improve the aggregate human capital development indicators in the region. (ii) There is a need to enhance government institutions' capacity to increase their level of effectiveness and performance. |
| Keywords: | Government Education Expenditure; Educational Outcomes Higher Education; System GMM; sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | E24 E52 E62 J17 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/048&r= |
| By: | Magambo, Isaiah Hubert; Dikgang, Johane; Gelo, Dambala; Tregenna, Fiona |
| Abstract: | This study used the by-production model specification to separate emission-generating technologies from ‘desirable outputs’ technology. It then employed the dynamic efficiency model, following the Dynamic Directional Input Distance Function specifications to compute the deterministic, dynamic environmental and technical efficiencies of large gold mines in developing countries. Using firm-level data from 2009 to 2018, the study found that on average, dynamic technical efficiency in these mines was 73%; the average dynamic technical efficiency was observed to have a decreasing trend, of 0.3% annually. The study also found that on average, dynamic environmental efficiency was 56%. However, the average dynamic environmental efficiency trend had a decrease of 0.6% annually. The poor performance and downward trends could be attributed partly to downward investment trends over time, and the increasing complexity of extracting gold deposits from low-grade ore, as well as to prices. They could also be the result either of poor institutional capacity, as far as environmental policies, regulations, and enforcement are concerned; or of supply-side structural rigidity – in particular, low-capacity, and unreliable energy supply, mostly from bad inputs such as coal and heavy fuels or both, which calls for the use of alternative energy sources. |
| Keywords: | environmental efficiency,gold mines,technical efficiency,undesirable output |
| JEL: | D24 D25 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:235859&r= |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Tim Köhler (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | In light of the South African government’s pandemic-induced expansion of the country’s social protection system to provide relief to vulnerable individuals and households, this paper aims to use newly available, nationally representative survey data – Wave 1 of the NIDS-CRAM – to provide a quantitative, descriptive evaluation of whether social grants are being successfully targeted at the most vulnerable in the context of the national lockdown and COVID-19 crisis. In particular, we highlight heterogeneity in labour market outcomes before and during the national lockdown to show that social grants are an important source of income relief for individuals in low-income households. We show that these individuals have been disproportionately burdened by adverse labour market effects induced by the lockdown with respect to employment loss, the likelihood of having a paid job to return to, and reductions in working hours and earnings. We show that grants substantially increase the incomes of poor households in relative terms and, through fiscal incidence analysis, we show that the pandemic-induced additional government spending on grants have been pro-poor, especially that on the Child Support Grant. Considering the observed heterogeneity in labour market outcomes before and during lockdown across the household income distribution and that grants are relatively well-targeted; we conclude with a set of policy recommendations for South Africa’s social protection system going forward. |
| Keywords: | NIDS-CRAM, South Africa, social grants, social protection |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202008&r= |
| By: | Youssef, Jamile; Ishker, Nermeen; Fakhreddine, Nour |
| Abstract: | Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are considered one of the fastest growing economies. This paper aims to empirically forecast the economic activity of the vastest GCC countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. An Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the three countries Gross Domestic Product is obtained using the Box-Jenkins methodology during the 1980 - 2020 period. The appropriate models for the three economies are of ARIMA (0,2,1), the forecasts are at a 95% confidence level and predicts a growth in the three countries for the upcoming five years. |
| Keywords: | ARIMA Model; GDP; forecasting; GCC |
| JEL: | C22 C53 O1 O53 |
| Date: | 2021–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108912&r= |
| By: | Thomas Conlon (Smurfit Graduate Business School, University College Dublin); John Cotter (Smurfit Graduate Business School, University College Dublin); Iason Kynigakis (Smurfit Graduate Business School, University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | We examine machine learning and factor-based portfolio optimization. We find that factors based on autoencoder neural networks exhibit a weaker relationship with commonly used characteristic-sorted portfolios than popular dimensionality reduction techniques. Machine learning methods also lead to covariance and portfolio weight structures that diverge from simpler estimators. Minimum-variance portfolios using latent factors derived from autoencoders and sparse methods outperform simpler benchmarks in terms of risk minimization. These effects are amplified for investors with an increased sensitivity to risk-adjusted returns, during high volatility periods or when accounting for tail risk. Covariance matrices with a time-varying error component improve portfolio performance at a cost of higher turnover. |
| Keywords: | Autoencoder, Covariance matrix, Dimensionality reduction, Factor models, Machine learning, Minimum-variance, Principal component analysis, Partial least squares, Portfolio optimization, Sparse principal component analysis, Sparse partial least squares |
| JEL: | C38 C4 C45 C5 C58 G1 G11 |
| Date: | 2021–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202111&r= |
| By: | Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric & Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Abeeb Olaniran (Centre for Econometric & Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the effect of oil price uncertainty shock on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 33 developed and emerging economies using the Global Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework that allows us to capture the transmission of global shocks while simultaneously accounting for distinct characteristics of individual countries. Utilizing quarterly data over the period of 1980Q1 to 2019Q2, we show that, in general, oil price uncertainty shock has a statistically significant negative impact on GDP for 28 out of the 33 countries, but with varying magnitude and persistence. Overall though, we find the adverse effect on real GDP to be relatively stronger for the developed group of countries than the emerging ones. Hence, our results suggest that policymakers must be ready to undertake expansionary policies (of varying order) in the wake of an oil price uncertainty shock to prevent deep recessions, except in the cases of Norway, Philippines and Saudi Arabia, for which output tends to increase in a statistically significant manner. |
| Keywords: | Oil price uncertainty shock, Real GDP, GVAR |
| JEL: | C32 E32 Q02 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202153&r= |
| By: | Ilse Rubbrecht (National Bank of Belgium); Emmanuel Dhyne (Economics and Research Department, NBB); Cédric Duprez (Economics and Research Department, NBB) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this Working Paper is providing an overview of the economic importance of the Flemish maritime ports, the Liège port complex and the port of Brussels over the period 2014–2019 in terms of value added, employment and investment based on annual account figures. In 2019, Belgian ports generated € 32.2 billion in direct and indirect value added (6.8% of Belgian GDP) and employed 254 009 full-time equivalents (FTEs) either directly or indirectly (5.9% of Belgian domestic employment including the self-employed). Direct employment at Belgian ports rose by 2% in 2019 mainly due to additional jobs in the cargo handling. Other sectors generated extra jobs too. All Belgian ports except for Brussels contributed to the overall job growth. Direct value added at Belgian ports grew by 1.4% in 2019. The increase was particularly evident at the ports of Antwerp and Liège, partly owing to wider capacity at nuclear power plants, after lower capacity in 2018. At the port of Antwerp, shipping companies faced higher value added. All Belgian ports enjoyed a rise in direct value added. After a high investment volume in 2018 thanks to a merger among shipping companies direct investment by all Belgian ports together bounced back by 22.9% to a level of € 4.8 billion in 2019, an amount quite similar to that seen two years before. Sea transport is the dominant transport mode of Belgian international trade in terms of volumes to countries outside the EU. The trend in international trade by shipping is explored, with a particular focus on the trade situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. To contain the spread of COVID-19, governments worldwide imposed stringent containment measures that resulted in huge economic disruptions. A first glimpse of the impact on Belgian ports in 2020 is provided, based on monthly turnover figures |
| Keywords: | : Belgian ports, microeconomic data, direct effects, indirect effects, input-output table, employment, value added, investment |
| JEL: | C13 C43 C67 C81 J21 J49 L91 L92 R11 R15 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202105-400&r= |
| By: | Gabriela Galassi; David Koll; Lukas Mayr |
| Abstract: | We document a substantial positive correlation of employment status between mothers and their offspring in the United States, linking data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the NLSY79 Children and Young Adults. Relative to a never employed mother, one who is employed throughout her working-age life increases the probability of her offspring's employment by 11 per- cent in each given year, after controlling for ability, education, fertility, and wealth. The intergenerational transmission of maternal employment is stronger to daughters than to sons, and it is higher for low-educated and low-income mothers. Investigat- ing potential mechanisms, we provide suggestive evidence for a role-model channel, through which labor force participation is transmitted. Offspring, especially daugh- ters, seem to emulate the example of their mother when they observe her working. By contrast, we are able to rule out several alternative candidate explanations such as network effects, occupation-specific human capital and local conditions of the labor market. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational transmission, preferences for work, female employment |
| JEL: | J21 J22 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_309&r= |
| By: | Martin Bruns (University of East Anglia); Michele Piffer (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | We extend the Smooth Transition Vector Autoregressive model to allow for identification via a combination of external instruments and sign restrictions, while estimating rather than calibrating the parameters ruling the nonlinearity of the model. We hence o er an alternative to using the recursive identification with selected calibrated parameters, which is the main approach currently available. We use the model to study how the effects of monetary policy shocks change over the business cycle. We show that financial variables, inflation and output respond to a monetary shock more in a recession than in an expansion, in line with the predictions from the financial accelerator literature. |
| Keywords: | Nonlinear models, proxy SVARs, monetary policy shocks, sign restrictions. |
| JEL: | C32 E52 |
| Date: | 2021–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2021-07&r= |
| By: | Hirotaka Kumamaru (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Kenji Takeuchi (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of Japan's recycling legislation on the usage of recycled materials in the production process of primary plastic products. By employing a difference-in-differences approach, we examine whether the recycled content of primary plastic products increased after the implementation of the Container and Packaging Recycling Law (CPR Law) in Japan. The results suggest that the usage of recycled plastics doubled and the usage of recycled plastics per plastic product increased by 1% after the implementation of the law. Meanwhile, the use of virgin plastic materials, such as polyethylene, polypropylene, and vinyl chloride, per plastic product decreased by 3% on average. These results suggest that the CPR Law helped shift inputs from virgin plastics to recycled plastic materials, although the size of the impact is small. To promote the use of recycled plastic materials further, policy interventions should directly incentivize producers to increase recycled content. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2119&r= |
| By: | Mojambo, Gabriel A.M.; Tulung, Joy Elly; Saerang, Regina Trivena |
| Abstract: | Despite of the abundant opportunities in Indonesian bank industry, digital era began to challenge banks to fully embrace the use of technology (information) with the objective of prolong competitive advantage. An organization becomes a reflection of its top managers. In facing such challenges, Top Management Team (TMT) members initiative to overcome the current status quo, will be reflected to the company under their management. For this reason, an effective TMT structure is a mandatory during the digital era to digitalize banking firms. This research investigates the relationship between top management team characteristics and Indonesian banks financial performance during the digital era. For top management team characteristics, this research includes functional background, gender diversity, average age, level of education, IT Expertise, and experience in years. While to measure the performance of Indonesian banks financial performance the paper includes return on asset (ROA), capital adequacy ratio (CAR), and non-performing loan (NPL). The results show that gender diversity have positive significant influences on NPL, average age have positive significant influences on ROA, CAR, NPL, and IT expertise have positive significant influences on CAR. |
| Keywords: | Bank, Top Management Team, Financial Performance |
| JEL: | G2 G21 G3 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108783&r= |
| By: | Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Barral, Mark Anthony A.; Rosellon, Maureen D.; Calizo, Sylwyn C. Jr. |
| Abstract: | Trade is an important component of the Philippine economy. Contemporary trade is shaped primarily by the evolution of Global Value Chains (GVCs), and this has a significant implication in integrating developing countries, such as the Philippines, into the global economy. An economy's inclusion into GVCs is affected by different factors, one of which is through a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The impact of FTAs has long been studied in the Philippines, but the network effects of FTA trade shocks and its resulting impact to industry firm performance have not been explored as much. This study contributes to filling that gap by calculating the direct impact of trade agreements to the performance of various sectors. The results of the analysis show that FTA imports have a positive and significant direct effect on industry growth and labor productivity. The network effects, however, are not statistically significant for real Gross Value Added growth. On employment, the direct effect is negative and statistically significant, but the network effects would temper this effect because the upstream effect arising from customers is positive and statistically significant. The shock also has a positive and statistically significant direct effect on labor productivity, which implies that increasing imports increases labor productivity of Philippine sectors. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | trade, free trade agreement, Philippines, network effects, trade agreements, FTA, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-31&r= |
| By: | Tim Köhler; Haroon Bhorat; Robert Hill; Ben Stanwix (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | Like most around the world, the South African government quickly implemented a relatively stringent national lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although much research documenting the pandemic’s economic effects exists, these studies are largely descriptive in nature and are therefore unable to distinguish changes in employment attributable to lockdown policy versus other pandemic related factors such as foreign policy and consumption-related behavioural responses. In this paper, we seek to specifically isolate and provide causal evidence on the effect of South Africa’s lockdown policy in particular. To do so, we adopt a quasi-experimental econometric technique to exploit variation in legislated industry-level permission to work and the coincidental timing of the lockdown and data collection dates of nationally representative labour force data. We find that the national lockdown decreased the probability of employment for those not permitted to work by 8 percentage points relative to the control group. This significant, negative effect holds across several robustness tests. Using this estimate we can approximate that, of the 2.2 million fewer people employed, South Africa’s lockdown policy directly accounted for just under 600 000 (or 26% of total jobs lost), suggesting the majority of job loss can be attributed to other pandemic-related factors. We further show that the lockdown particularly jeopardized the livelihoods of those in the informal sector, with an estimated effect nearly 3 times larger than the overall effect. The vulnerability of this group to the economic consequences of the pandemic is of concern, given that their informality presents a challenge for government to provide targeted relief. To prevent further widening labour market inequalities, our analysis emphasises the importance of effective policy to support the livelihoods of those in the informal economy. |
| Keywords: | South Africa, labour market, COVID-19, pandemic, employment, causal inference, quasi-experimental, inequality |
| JEL: | D04 J08 J20 J48 J88 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202107&r= |
| By: | Croitor, Evgheni |
| Abstract: | Digital platforms such as Android, Uber or Airbnb have become hotspots of economic interactions between complementors (i.e., producers) and end-users (i.e., consumers). As the number of complementors and offered complements on digital platforms grow, platform providers need to exercise control to align their interests and strategies with those of the complementors. To manage complementors and their complements, platform providers draw on control modes. In this thesis, control mode refers to set of mechanisms employed by platform provider to control (e.g., approve, guide and monitor) complementors and their complements on digital platforms. To advance the emergent research in the field of control modes on digital platforms, this thesis focuses on a control mode that is widespread in practice but has been largely overlooked in IS research so far, namely input control. Input control can be described as the set of mechanisms used by the platform provider to screen and sort out complementors and their complements before entering the digital platform. Within five articles, this thesis addresses the role and importance of input control on digital platforms by investigating the effects of input control in four different platform contexts (i.e., mobile applications, web-browsers, crowdfunding and e-marketplaces). The first article describes the development of an enhanced conceptual definition for input control and a corresponding measurement scale for questionnaire-based survey research that helps us measure input control more accurately and gauge its impact on platform complementors. The developed measurement scale was rigorously validated in the context of mobile application platforms (i.e., Android and iOS) based on the guidelines and recommendations in extant scale development literature. The second article deals with the distinction between complementor-related and complement-related input control mechanisms that address complementors and complements, respectively. Using a combination of quantitative (i.e., survey) and qualitative (i.e., interviews) methods applied in the context of web-browser platforms (i.e., Chrome and Firefox), the results revealed that both mechanisms affect complementors’ overall perception of input control on digital platforms. Moreover, the results showed that complementors’ perceived usefulness of and satisfaction with a digital platform served as an important driving force through which perceived input control affects complementors’ continuance intentions. Drawing on IS control literature and goal attainment theory, the third article addresses the effects of input control and self control on complementors’ intentions to stay on their respective digital platform. Results of an online survey with complementors from two major reward-based crowdfunding platforms (i.e., Kickstarter and Indiegogo) revealed that input control reduces and self control increases complementors’ willingness to stay. Interestingly, these effects can be explained through the comparison of associated usefulness and effort of using the digital platform. The fourth article investigates the impact of input control and clan control in the context of e-marketplace platforms (i.e., Amazon and Etsy). The results revealed opposing effects of input control and clan control on complementors’ beliefs, attitudes and behavioral outcomes. In particular, whereas input control had a negative effect on complementors’ perceived usefulness, satisfaction and continuance intention, clan control exerted a positive effect on the observed variables. The fifth and last article examines the influence of input control on complementors’ performance. Results of a field survey with sellers on Amazon indicated that input control reduces complementors’ intrinsic motivation, resulting in a lower performance on a digital platform. Surprisingly, the findings revealed that input control has no direct effect on complementors’ performance when accounting for intrinsic motivation. Taken together, this thesis showcases the role and importance of input control and provides a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of how complementors perceive and react to input control mechanisms on digital platforms. Furthermore, the findings shed light on the underlying explanatory mechanisms of why the effects of input control on digital platforms unfold. As such, this thesis answers several calls for research in platform governance and control literature, and lays the foundation for future studies on digital platforms. The overarching contributions of this thesis for research consists of (1) investigating the effects of input control on complementors’ behavior and performance outcomes on digital platforms, and (2) exploring input control in various platform contexts with unique circumstances and influences as well as in combination with other control modes. Additionally, this thesis provides crucial insights for platform providers on how and why input control mechanisms affect complementors behavior and performance outcomes. The findings therefore provide valuable impetus for platform providers to maintain platforms’ long-term success und sustainability. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:127634&r= |
| By: | Gänßle, Sophia |
| Abstract: | Social media stars create stardom with uploads on social media pages like YouTube, TikTok or Instagram. One of the most popular platforms, especially designed to upload picture contents, is the service "Instagram" owned by Facebook. The growing social, cultural and economic power of social media star phenomenon raises the question about key drivers of success. Does body exposure drive Instagram success? Is there a difference between male and female content in this regard? This paper empirically analyses 500 top Instagram stars within the categories (1) fashion and beauty, (2) fitness and sports, (3) music, (4) photo and arts, (5) food and vegan. The unbalanced panel data set consists of 100 stars within each category over an observation period of five months. The data provides information on popularity measurements, such as subscribers, likes and comments, and most importantly, price estimates per post. Since influencers are not paid by the platform, but mainly by advertisers for promotion of their products, the estimated price per upload combined with the posting frequency serve as a valid proxy for weekly revenue and economic success. Mean comparison tests show that accounts with focus on female accounts have a significantly higher degree in body exposure, while the price per picture is higher for male content. Weekly revenues do not significantly diverge. Furthermore, using panel regressions, I estimate the effect of body exposure and sex on advertising revenue. The results show that body exposure has a positive effect, whereas the sex has no significant influence in the regression estimations. Eventually, this raises the question of a gender pay gap in social media. |
| Keywords: | cultural and creative industries,attention economics,superstar theory,social media stars,influencers,Instagram,gender pay gap |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:150&r= |
| By: | Nicholas Garvin (Reserve Bank of Australia); Alex Kearney (Reserve Bank of Australia); Corrine Rosé (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority implemented 2 credit limits between 2014 and 2018. Unlike similar policies in other countries, these imposed limits on particular mortgage products – first investor mortgages, then interest-only (IO) mortgages. With prudential bank-level panel data, we empirically identify banks' credit supply and interest rate responses and test for other effects of these policies. The policies quickly reduced growth in the targeted type of credit while total mortgage growth remained steady. Banks met the limits by raising interest rates on targeted mortgage products and this lifted their income temporarily. The largest banks substituted into non-targeted mortgage products while smaller banks did not. Practical implementation difficulties slowed effects of the (first) investor policy, and led to some disproportionate bank responses, but had largely been overcome by the time the (second) IO policy was implemented. |
| Keywords: | macroprudential policy; banks; mortgages; mortgage rates |
| JEL: | E43 E5 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2021-07&r= |
| By: | Shoibal Chakravarty (Indian Institute of Science); E. Somanathan (Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi) |
| Abstract: | India is the world's third-largest emitter of CO2 and coal-fired power plants contribute approximately half of India's CO2 emissions. Indian government policies assume a significant expansion of coal-fired power in India over the next two decades. This paper compares the costs of coal and renewable power, including quantifiable domestic external costs, in 2018 as well as projections for 2025. Our estimate for the environmental cost of coal is 2.4 US KWh (1.64 Rupee/KWh) in the financial year 2018-19. The average cost of electricity from nearly all coal plants in India is greater than the cost of new solar and wind generators in 2018-19 when environmental costs are taken into account. More than 50% of the coal capacity has a social operating cost that is higher than the average social cost of power from renewables. By 2025, the cost of electricity from renewables with storage will be comparable to the domestic social costs of the cheapest new coal plants. We emphasize that this analysis holds without any accounting of climate change impacts in the form of a cost of carbon. There is, therefore, no economic case for new coal plants in India. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alo:isipdp:21-04&r= |
| By: | Joshua Bosshardt (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Ali Kakhbod (Rice University); Farzad Saidi (UniversityofBonn & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We examine the system-wide effects of liquidity regulation on banks’ balance sheets. In the general equilibrium model, banks have to hold liquid assets, and choose among illiquid assets varying in the extent to which they are difficult to value before maturity, e.g., structured securities. By improving the liquidity of interbank markets, tighter liquidity requirements induce banks to invest in such complex assets. We evaluate the welfare properties of combining liquidity regulation with other financial-stability policies, and show that it can complement ex-ante policies, such as asset-specific taxes, whereas it can undermine the benefits of ex-post interventions, such as quantative easing. |
| Keywords: | liquidity regulation, securitization, interbank markets, financial stability, quantitative easing |
| JEL: | E44 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:108&r= |
| By: | Hasan, Lubna; Chaudhry, Aqeel; Ahmad, Ayaz; Jalil, Hanzla |
| Abstract: | Islamabad is currently in the process of reviewing its Master Plan. Islamabad, planned in 1960 by C. A. Doxiadis on the principles of ‘Dynapolis’ – “the City of the Future” is a low-density administrative city, with single-family homes based on an American suburban model. There was no room for the poor, a central business district (CBD), or even a university. The city has 126 illegal private housing societies - operating without adhering to the modalities set for residential spaces. Islamabad also has 63 un/under-serviced slums housing 30% of the total city population. All this is the result of a restrictive zoning regime that encourages sprawl against high-density mixed-use development causing inefficient use of land. Urban Sprawl has disadvantages in terms of increased travel time, transport costs, pollution, destruction of arable lands. The World has moved on from restrictive master planning. Master plans are time and data-intensive. Being static and mostly non-inclusive, their stringent requirements leave little space for markets to develop. Islamabad is an over-regulated city favoring single-family houses. Successful cities have flexible zoning codes to adjust to changing physical requirements of a city. Islamabad is not an affordable city for low-income groups. Real estate prices increase where height restrictions are excessive. Rezoning helps the increase of supply land to keep prices in check. Policy needs to recognise cities as engines of growth. The zoning paradigm needs to favor density, high-rise mixed-use development, walkability, public and community spaces. Government ownership of city-center land needs to be reduced to allow cities adequate ownership of their land and resources. Commerce is to be given priority in city centers. City management should be professional and accountable. Cities must be able to hire out of their budgets. Decision-making must be an open consultative process. |
| Keywords: | Cities, City Planning, New Urbanism, Master Planning, |
| JEL: | R00 R14 R31 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108735&r= |
| By: | Mahadevia, Darshini; Datt, Manish; Adhvaryu, Bhargav (Ahmedabad University); Killiyath, Suhair |
| Abstract: | The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), that has gripped the world since December 2019 and declared a pandemic has infected about 4.8 million people in India and counting. This pandemic is urban-centric globally and in India in the earlier stages. In this paper we argue that the virus’s spread in India has multiple routes, the housing conditions, socio-economic characteristics as well as the epidemiology route that influences the management of the infection contrary to attributing the spread geography to only vulnerable areas. Selecting Ahmedabad, a city that register higher number of infections in the early period, this paper attempt to understand the pattern of infection spread and explain these using recorded infections from March 17, 2020 to June 10, 2020 period. |
| Date: | 2021–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ycnue&r= |
| By: | Aleman-Castilla, Benjamin. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of non-preferential trade liberalization and exposure to globalization on “adequate earnings” in the Mexican manufacturing industries between 2003 and 2020, using data from the National Survey of Occupation and Employment and from the annual surveys of manufacturing industries. By means of panel data and three-stage least squares estimation strategies, it is found that, although ex- posure to globalization is not robustly associated with gross daily wages per employee, non-discriminatory trade liberalization and exposure to globalization contributed to a reduction in both the working poverty rate among employed persons and the share of employees with low pay rates. The paper is a contribution to the project “Trade, enterprises and labour markets: Diagnostic and firm level assessment (ASSESS)”, joint- ly funded by the European Commission and the ILO. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995134393402676&r= |
| By: | Domingo, Sonny N.; Manejar, Arvie Joy A. |
| Abstract: | Around 300 million indigenous peoples (IPs) have been identified across 70 countries. Fourteen million of them are located in the Philippines, with their cultural zones taking up as much as 44 percent of the country’s land area. There has been much confusion regarding their identity and rights, resulting in a lengthy policy and institutional evolution in the sector. This, eventually, resulted in the passage of the Indigenous Peoples Rights Act (IPRA) in 1997 and the establishment of the National Commission of Indigenous Peoples (NCIP). It took almost a decade for the institution to issue salient guidelines and regulations under the IPRA. The delay also affected numerous opportunities in the sector, such as in leveraging indigenous cultural communities (ICCs) and their ancestral domains against encroachment. The landmark legislation safeguarded essential core rights of the IPs/ICCs. While the IPRA seemingly provide enough protection to IP/ICC rights, the protection of these rights remained contentious on the ground. The IPs/ICCs true empowerment is visible only through their claim and stewardship of ancestral domains, preservation of the integrity of their cultural heritage, and the protection of their basic human rights and social entitlements. Going forward, the IPs/ICCs must assume their rightful place as empowered stewards of their historical domains, and mainstream their interests and advocacies. The Commission, as the enabling institution, would have to review its bureaucratic functions and address the roots of certain weaknesses to better deliver mandated services, and own its critical role in safeguarding the welfare of IPs/ICCs. |
| Keywords: | culture, welfare, indigenous peoples, IPRA |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-20&r= |
| By: | Hulya Saygili; Aysun Turkvatan |
| Abstract: | The recent literature debates the significance of different regimes of inflation and trade linkages in explaining the relationship between inflation and alternative reference indicators. This paper contributes to this literature in several respects. First, it explores which states of the reference indicators are more related with low, normal or high regimes of inflation. Second, it takes globalization into account and performs the analysis for goods and services in the consumer basket classified with respect to their trade openness and content of intermediate imports: tradable/non-tradable items and items with low/high imported intermediate share. It applies Markov regime-switching models to determine the states of inflation and reference series then compare probability scores of matching different regimes of inflation and different regimes of reference indicators. Third, it computes Consumer Price Indices in tradable/non-tradable and low/high imported intermediate details for an emerging country, Turkey which distinguishes from the others with high trade openness, high global integration rate and implementation of inflation targeting regime. |
| Keywords: | Inflation regimes, Tradable/non-tradable inflation, Markov regime-switching models, Probability score analysis |
| JEL: | E31 F41 C11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2117&r= |
| By: | Gianluca Orefice (University of Paris-Dauphine, CEPII and CESifo); Hillel Rapoport (PSE, CEPII and LISER); Gianluca Santoni (CEPII) |
| Abstract: | How does immigration affect export performance? To answer this question we propose a unified empirical framework allowing to disentangle various mechanisms put forth in previous literature. These include the role of networks in reducing bilateral transaction costs as well as productivity shifts arising from migration-induced knowledge diffusion and increased workforce diversity. While we find evidence supporting all three channels (at both the intensive and the extensive margins of trade), our framework allows to gauge their relative importance. We then focus on diversity and find stronger results in sectors characterized by more complex production processes and more intense teamwork cooperation. This is consistent with theories linking the distribution of skills to the comparative advantage of nations. The results are robust to using a theoretically-grounded IV approach combining three variations on the shift share methodology. |
| Keywords: | International Trade, Birthplace Diversity, Migration, Productivity. |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F22 O47 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202104&r= |
| By: | Olivier de Bandt; George Overton |
| Abstract: | Plantin & Rochet (2016) document how insurers often engage in risk-shifting years before the materialization of a failure. This paper empirically examines this claim by testing the mechanisms of insurance insolvency, using a first-of-its-kind international database assembled by the authors which merges data on balance sheet and income statements together with information on impairments over the last 30 years in four big countries (France, Japan, the UK and the US). Employing different fixed effects logistic specifications and parametric survival models, the paper presents evidence of profitability as a leading indicator of failures, as well as the higher likelihood of failure by smaller firms. In addition, there is an intrinsic asymmetry between the life and non-life insurance sectors. In the life sector, asset mix is highly significant in predicting an impairment, while operating inefficiency plays no role. In the non-life sector, the opposite proves true. <p> Plantin et Rochet (2007) étudient comment la survenance de la défaillance d’une entreprise d’assurance fait souvent suite à une prise de risque excessive plusieurs années avant l’événement. L’article examine empiriquement cette affirmation en testant les déterminants de la solvabilité des assurances. Il mobilise pour cela une base de données internationale, la première du genre, assemblée par les auteurs. La base intègre à la fois des informations sur les défaillances et des données de bilan et de compte de résultat sur les 30 dernières années dans quatre grands pays (France, Japon, Royaume-Uni et États-Unis). En utilisant différents modèles logistiques à effets fixes et des modèles de survie paramétriques, l'article montre comment la rentabilité constitue un indicateur avancé des défaillances et que la probabilité de défaut est plus élevée pour les entreprises d’assurance de petite taille. En outre, il existe une asymétrie intrinsèque entre les secteurs de l'assurance vie et de l'assurance non-vie. Dans le secteur de l'assurance-vie, la composition des actifs est très importante pour prédire une défaillance, tandis que l'inefficacité opérationnelle ne joue aucun rôle. Dans le secteur non-vie, les données disponibles indiquent que le contraire est vrai. |
| Keywords: | Insolvency Prediction, Insurance Default, Financial Crises; Prévision de la faillite, Insolvabilité assurantielle, Crises financières |
| JEL: | G22 G01 G11 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:decfin:36&r= |
| By: | Sarwal, Rakesh; Prasad, Urvashi; Gopal, K. Madan; Kalal, Shoyabahmed; Kaur, Deepyot; Kumar, Anurag; Regy, Prasanth; Sharma, Jitendra |
| Abstract: | India’s healthcare industry has been growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate of around 22% since 2016. At this rate, it is expected to reach USD 372 Billion in 2022. Healthcare has become one of the largest sectors of the Indian economy, in terms of both revenue and employment. In 2015, the healthcare sector became the fifth largest employer, employing 4.7 Million people directly. As per estimates by the National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) healthcare can generate 2.7 Million additional jobs in India between 2017-22 -- over 500,000 new jobs per year. India’s healthcare industry comprises hospitals, medical devices and equipment, health insurance, clinical trials, telemedicine and medical tourism. These market segments are expected to diversify as an ageing population with a growing middle class increasingly favours preventative healthcare. Moreover, the rising proportion of lifestyle diseases caused by high cholesterol, high blood pressure, obesity, poor diet and alcohol consumption in urban areas is boosting demand for specialised care services. In addition to these demographic and epidemiological trends, COVID-19 is likely to catalyse long-term changes in attitudes towards personal health and hygiene, health insurance, fitness and nutrition as well as health monitoring and medical check-ups. The pandemic has also accelerated the adoption of digital technologies, including telemedicine. Further, there is a growing emphasis on and emergence of Public-Private Partnership models in India’s healthcare sector. The country’s relative cost competitiveness and availability of skilled labour are also making it an increasingly favoured destination for Medical Value Travel. On the policy front, the Indian Government is undertaking deep structural and sustained reforms to strengthen the healthcare sector; it has also announced conducive policies for encouraging Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). In fact, India’s FDI regime has been liberalised extensively. Currently, FDI is permitted up to 100% under the automatic route (i.e., the non resident investor or Indian company does not require approval from the Government of India for the investment) in the hospital sector and in the manufacture of medical devices. In the pharmaceutical sector, FDI is permitted up to 100% in greenfield projects and 74% in brownfield projects under the automatic route. India has emerged as one of the fastest-growing emerging economies over the last two decades, receiving large FDI inflows, which have grown from USD 2.5 Billion in 2000-01 to USD 50 Billion in 2019-20. The healthcare sector, in particular, has received heightened interest from investors over the last few years, with the transaction value increasing from USD 94 Million (2011) to USD 1,275 Million (2016) – a jump of over 13.5 times. All of these factors together create several opportunities for investment in India’s healthcare industry. |
| Date: | 2021–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rtup2&r= |
| By: | Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos.; Gómez Tovar, Rosa.; Sánchez Gómez, Joaquín.; Gómez Rodríguez, Lizzeth. |
| Abstract: | The study examines the effects of trade liberalization on employment and the labour market in Mexico’s manufacturing industry. The analysis places special emphasis on assessing the extent to which the industry’s distinct trade performance is accompanied by an improvement in labour conditions with the objective of ensuring decent work. For this purpose, the study applies the framework of decent work indicators developed by the International Labour Organization (ILO), in combination with input–output analysis, to explore selected links between international trade and certain indicators of decent work in two industries of Mexico’s manufacturing sector: automotive and textile. We chose these two industries because of the key differences in their organizational structures, their roles in global value chains (GVC) and their dynamism in recent decades. With the policy shift towards trade liberalization in recent decades, the automotive industry has come to be regarded as the jewel of Mexico’s export market. The textile industry, in contrast, suffered a severe shock as trade liberalization brought about increased competition in Mexico’s domestic market, despite the industry increasing its participation in GVCs. A key contribution of the study was to construct a set of relevant time series indicators of decent work for these two industrial activities in Mexico, based on ILO guidelines and official data. Taking into account this set of indicators, as well as Mexico’s labour market regulatory reforms and their links to trade agreements, including the Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (USMCA), the study finds important differences in these two industries’ advance towards decent work, which can be partly explained by their distinct performances in international trade. Based on these results, the study offers some policy recommendations to help achieve a more robust pace of progress towards decent work. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995133793402676&r= |
| By: | Richard N. Langlois (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This paper is an excerpt from a larger book project called The Corporation and the Twentieth Century, which chronicles and interprets the institutional and economic history – the life and times, if you will – of American business in the twentieth century. This excerpt examines the era of industrial deregulation of the late twentieth century. As had been the case with financial deregulation, it argues, industrial deregulation and the internationalization of trade were largely a manifestation of the misalignment of the postwar regulatory regime with the realities of economic growth. This misalignment created profit opportunities for entrepreneurs not only in the realm of technology but also, and perhaps more crucially, in the realm of institutions. In some cases, entrepreneurs would expend resources in order to foment political change. In other cases, technological and institutional innovation, aided at times by the depredations of the regulation itself, would so reduce the available rents of a regulatory regime that its supporting coalition would collapse |
| Keywords: | Deregulation; institutional innovation; technological change; antitrust |
| JEL: | D23 K21 L4 L51 L52 L6 L9 N42 N62 N72 N82 O3 P12 P P16 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2021-11&r= |
| By: | Marc J Melitz (Harvard University); Stephen J Redding (Princeton University, CEPR, NBER) |
| Abstract: | Two central insights from the Schumpeterian approach to innovation and growth are that the pace of innovation is endogenously determined by the expectation of future profits and that growth is inherently a process of creative destruction. As international trade is a key determinant of firm profitability and survival, it is natural to expect it to play a key role in shaping both incentives to innovate and the rate of creative destruction. In this paper, we review the theoretical and empirical literature on trade and innovation. We highlight four key mechanisms through which international trade affects endogenous innovation and growth: (i) market size; (ii) competition; (iii) comparative advantage; (iv) knowledge spillovers. Each of these mechanisms offers a potential source of dynamic welfare gains in addition to the static welfare gains from trade from conventional trade theory. Recent research has suggested that these dynamic welfare gains from trade can be substantial relative to their static counterparts.Discriminating between alternative mechanisms for these dynamic welfare gains and strengthening the evidence on their quantitative magnitude remain exciting areas of ongoing research. |
| JEL: | F13 O31 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:288&r= |
| By: | Mikkel Bennedsen (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University and CREATES); Asger Lunde (Copenhagen Economics and CREATES); Neil Shephard (Department of Economics and Department of Statistics, Harvard University); Almut E.D. Veraart (Imperial College London and CREATES) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops likelihood-based methods for estimation, inference, model selection, and forecasting of continuous-time integer-valued trawl processes. The full likelihood of integer-valued trawl processes is, in general, highly intractable, motivating the use of composite likelihood methods, where we consider the pairwise likelihood in lieu of the full likelihood. Maximizing the pairwise likelihood of the data yields an estimator of the parameter vector of the model, and we prove consistency and asymptotic normality of this estimator. The same methods allow us to develop probabilistic forecasting methods, which can be used to construct the predictive distribution of integer-valued time series. In a simulation study, we document good finite sample performance of the likelihood-based estimator and the associated model selection procedure. Lastly, the methods are illustrated in an application to modelling and forecasting financial bid-ask spread data, where we find that it is beneficial to carefully model both the marginal distribution and the autocorrelation structure of the data. We argue that integer-valued trawl processes are especially well-suited in such situations. |
| Keywords: | Integer valued trawl process, Lévy basis, composite likelihood, pairwise likelihood, estimation, model selection, forecasting |
| JEL: | C01 C13 C22 C51 C53 G17 |
| Date: | 2021–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2021-12&r= |
| By: | Simon Rabaté (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | Having children can result in large earnings penalties for mothers. Using extensive administrative data from the Netherlands, we assess the magnitude and drivers of the effects of first childbirth on parents' earnings trajectories in the Netherlands. We show that mothers' earnings are 46% lower compared to their pre-birth earnings trajectory, whereas fathers' earnings are unaffected by child birth. We examine the role of two potential determinants of the unequal distribution of parents' labour market costs by gender: childcare policies and gender norms. We find that while child care availability is correlated with lower child penalty, the immediate short-term causal effect of increasing child care availability on the earnings penalty of becoming a mother is small. By taking advantage of variation in gender norms in different population groups, we show that gender norms are strongly correlated with child penalty for mothers. Having children can result in large earnings penalties for mothers. Using extensive administrative data from the Netherlands, we assess the magnitude and drivers of the effects of first childbirth on parents' earnings trajectories in the Netherlands. We show that mothers' earnings are 46% lower compared to their pre-birth earnings trajectory, whereas fathers' earnings are unaffected by child birth. We examine the role of two potential determinants of the unequal distribution of parents' labour market costs by gender: childcare policies and gender norms. We find that while child care availability is correlated with lower child penalty, the immediate short-term causal effect of increasing child care availability on the earnings penalty of becoming a mother is small. By taking advantage of variation in gender norms in different population groups, we show that gender norms are strongly correlated with child penalty for mothers. |
| JEL: | I26 I32 J13 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:424.rdf&r= |
| By: | Shubham Ekapure; Nuruddin Jiruwala; Sohan Patnaik; Indranil SenGupta |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we implement a combination of technical analysis and machine/deep learning-based analysis to build a trend classification model. The goal of the paper is to apprehend short-term market movement, and incorporate it to improve the underlying stochastic model. Also, the analysis presented in this paper can be implemented in a \emph{model-independent} fashion. We execute a data-science-driven technique that makes short-term forecasts dependent on the price trends of current stock market data. Based on the analysis, three different labels are generated for a data set: $+1$ (buy signal), $0$ (hold signal), or $-1$ (sell signal). We propose a detailed analysis of four major stocks- Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft. We implement various technical indicators to label the data set according to the trend and train various models for trend estimation. Statistical analysis of the outputs and classification results are obtained. |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14695&r= |
| By: | Laura Alfaro (Harvard Business School & NBER); Ester Faia (Goethe University Frankfurt & CEPR); Nora Lamersdorf (Goethe University Frankfurt); Farzad Saidi (University of Bonn & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Social preferences facilitate the internalization of health externalities, for ex-ample by reducing mobility during a pandemic. We test this hypothesis using mobility data from 258 cities worldwide alongside experimentally validated measures of social preferences. Controlling for time-varying heterogeneity that could arise at the level at which mitigation policies are implemented, we find that they matter less in regions that are more altruistic, patient, or exhibit less negative reciprocity. In those regions, mobility falls ahead of lockdowns, and remains low after the lifting thereof. Our results elucidate the importance, independent of the cultural context, of social preferences in fostering cooperative behavior. |
| Keywords: | social preferences, pandemics, mobility, health externalities, mitigation policies |
| JEL: | D01 D62 D64 D91 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:109&r= |
| By: | Carl Singleton (Department of Economics, University of Reading); J. James Reade (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Johan Rewilak (Department of Economics, Finance and Entrepreneurship, Aston University); Dominik Schreyer (Wissenschaftliche Hochschule für Unternehmensführung (WHU)) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the magnitude of home advantage at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games, looking back all the way to Athens in 1896. By comparing a host country’s success with their performances in previous and subsequent games, we find that home advantage has declined over time as participation and the diversity of competition have increased. Hosts of the Summer Olympics between 1988 and 2016 enjoyed a two-percentage-point boost in their shares of medals and finalists, compared with their performances overseas, in both men's and women's events. In this same contemporary period, the home advantage effect at the Winter Olympics was around fifty percent larger in men's events but non-existent in women's events. We also find evidence of significant performance spill overs on the previous and next Olympiads for countries when they hosted the Summer Games. |
| Keywords: | Attendance, Gender economics, Home bias, Major sport events, Olympic Games, Referee bias, Sports economics |
| JEL: | D91 L83 Z2 |
| Date: | 2021–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2021-13&r= |
| By: | Diane Coyle (The Productivity Institute, Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge) |
| Keywords: | productivity, knowledge capital |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anj:wpaper:003&r= |
| By: | Ina C. Jäkel (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | Most countries use export credit agencies (ECAs) to mitigate export-related credit constraints. We evaluate the direct effects of this policy on treated firms, as well as spillovers to non-treated firms. Using data from the Danish ECA and applying a difference-in-difference matching estimator, we find large positive effects on total sales, exports and purchases of treated firms. Next, we derive new measures for horizontal and backward spillovers based on production and purchase statistics. Our results show that upstream firms benefit from EKF guarantees issued to their potential customers, but that domestic producers are not harmed by guarantees given to their competitors. |
| Keywords: | Public export credit guarantees, Spillover effects, Export finance |
| JEL: | F12 F14 L15 |
| Date: | 2021–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2021-09&r= |
| By: | Zaira Najam (University of Waikato); John Gibson (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | Knowing whether poverty rates converge within a country matters for regional development policy and for understanding growth processes. In this paper we use five poverty measures, calculated biennially from 2004 to 2014 for 100 districts in Pakistan, to test for poverty convergence. Spatial autoregressive models are used to capture spatial spillovers. Conventional money-metric poverty measures, such as the headcount index and poverty gap index, show unconditional convergence, and the convergence is more apparent if indirect impacts from spillovers are accounted for. In contrast, two multidimensional poverty indexes show no convergence and no indirect effects coming from spatial spillovers. Catch-up growth in initially poorer areas is apparent with the money-metric poverty measures traditionally used in Pakistan but not with the types of multidimensional poverty measures used officially since 2015. This difference in apparent poverty convergence may affect regional development policy choices. |
| Keywords: | convergence; multidimensional; poverty; spatial spillovers; Pakistan |
| JEL: | I32 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:21/07&r= |
| By: | Dodson, Jago; Curtis, Carey; Ashmore, David; Woodcock, Ian; Kovacs, Stephen |
| Abstract: | This research explores how Australian urban transport programs and policies are responding to changes in transport technology, travel patterns, environmental imperatives and spatial development dynamics in order to offer guidance about future directions and options, and seeks to identify potential policy directions for Australia’s cities and policy arrangements. |
| Date: | 2021–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n3g5d&r= |
| By: | Fausta Ongaro (Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Padova); Valentina Tocchioni (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università degli Studi di Firenze) |
| Abstract: | BACKGROUND: The literature has analysed the effect of problem behaviours on the timing of first sexual intercourse, showing a positive association between them, but scant information is available about the effect on the other circumstances of sexual debut, such as the use of protection and having a casual partner, with few studies on Southern European countries. OBJECTIVE: This study addresses whether and how the initiation and the timing of some risky behaviours (problem drinking and marijuana, ecstasy and other drug use) are associated with the timing of sexual debut, the use of protection and the type of first sexual partner. METHODS: Event history analyses for the transition to first sexual intercourse – also in their competing risk form – are performed on data referring to Italian university students aged 18-26, collected in 2000-2001 and 2017. RESULTS: The risk of having first sexual intercourse steadily increases as the number of first-time risky behaviours increases. The negative effect of the accumulation of risky behaviours seems to be accentuated at very early ages; for those having their first intercourse with a casual partner; for young women having their first intercourse without any form of protection; and for young men having their first intercourse irrespective of the use of protection. CONTRIBUTION: Our results show that even in a country such as Italy, where family and sexual norms are relatively traditional, young people confident with alcohol, marijuana and ecstasy use are more likely to experience risky sexual intercourse. This provides evidence for the political agenda on educating safe sex. |
| Keywords: | First sexual intercourse; risky behaviour; substance use; survival models; university students; Italy |
| JEL: | J13 C41 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2021_14&r= |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister; Danilo Leiva-León; Eric Sims |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles across individual states. We assess the role of states in national recessions and propose an aggregate indicator that allows us to gauge the overall weakness of the U.S. economy. We also illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main forces contributing to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the e effectiveness of federal economic policies like the Paycheck Protection Program. |
| Keywords: | local economic conditions, government policies, weekly indicators, state economies, cross-state heterogeneity, mixed-frequency dynamic factor model, economic weakness index, Markov-switching, recession probabilities |
| JEL: | C32 C55 E32 E66 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-55&r= |
| By: | Jung, SeEun (Inha University, Department of Economics); Vranceanu, Radu (ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School) |
| Abstract: | This research note reports results of a survey on student satisfaction with distance education in Korea and France as implemented in May 2020 on 510 respondents. At that time, both countries closed the facilities of higher education institutions and imposed the extensive use of on-line education. A majority of French students express a preference for in-class teaching compared with on-line teaching, while preferences of the Korean students are more balanced. On average, Korean students express higher satisfaction with online teaching compared to French students. Women students also report higher satisfaction scores. The COVID-19 stress is negatively related to satisfaction with online teaching in Korea, but not in France |
| Keywords: | Distance education; Student satisfaction; Synchronous teaching; COVID-19 stress |
| JEL: | I19 I23 I28 |
| Date: | 2020–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-20007&r= |