nep-isf New Economics Papers
on Islamic Finance
Issue of 2021‒07‒26
four papers chosen by
Mohamed Mohamed Tolba Said

  1. The impact of the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) on the Arab Maghreb Union's regional integration. By Allali Sara
  2. An Application for the Impact of the Agricultural Labor Force and Employment Structure on the Economic Growth in Turkey By Mengüç, Işıl Tellalbaşı
  3. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: First Review Under the Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Islamic Republic of Afghanistan By International Monetary Fund
  4. The Political Economy of Kazakhstan: A Case of Good Economics, Bad Politics? By Commander, Simon; Prieskienyte, Ruta

  1. By: Allali Sara (Université Mohammed V, Rabat)
    Abstract: This article presents an assessment of the implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) in the context of the Arab Maghreb Union's ongoing regional integration efforts and its main contributions. It indicates that trade-related costs hamper not only Africa's integration with the rest of the world but, more specifically, its regional integration. The article analyzes some relevant indicators from the World Bank Doing Business database. Given the asymmetric magnitude of transaction costs by international standards, the analysis affirms how critical trade facilitation is for the UMA's growth. Moreover, in order to estimate the UMA's trade potential, the article uses a gravity model applied to panel data over a period of 10 years for 16 countries. It results that in North Africa, trade potential is far from being attained and the flows studied here represent only 46% of the estimations. Within this set, the UMA is at 56% of the estimated level. To conclude, regardless of the significant economic progress registered in the last ten years, the Maghreb is still impaired from a lack of solidity and involvement in its trade relations. Hence, the analysis of this potential shows the relative presence of potential according to each country, and in this way, calls to mind the need for policies that aim to build true integration in the Maghreb.
    Keywords: Trade facilitation,Gravity Model,Exports
    Date: 2021–05–30
  2. By: Mengüç, Işıl Tellalbaşı
    Abstract: In this research, agricultural employment and labor structure in Turkey between the years 1991-2019 aimed to investigate the impact on economic growth. In this framework, the relationship between agricultural employment (TI), agricultural male employment (TEI) and agricultural value added (TKD) and growth was analyzed using the World Bank Country Report. According to the results obtained in the study, the relationship of all three parameters with GDP is statistically highly significant (p <0.05). However, when the analysis is repeated as year-controlled, the effect of agricultural added value on GDP becomes statistically insignificant (p> 0.05). The regression analysis results showed that only the TI variable, that is, the agricultural employment variable, had a significant effect on growth (p <0.05). Apart from this, there is no statistically significant effect of male employment and agricultural value added parameters on growth in agriculture (p> 0.05). Increased employment in agricultural production in Turkey, has a negative effect on growth. It can be stated that the main reasons for this are that there are not enough agricultural innovations, modernization and technological developments.
    Date: 2021–06–26
  3. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Afghanistan is confronting the Covid-19 pandemic and its socioeconomic fallout amid rising insecurity. Supported by donors, the authorities boosted health and social spending to cushion the pandemic’s impact on the vulnerable. Policy measures kept the output contraction to 2 percent in 2020, but poverty rose and the fiscal deficit widened. Political uncertainty has risen as the peace talks between the government and Taliban stalled and the U.S., NATO, and allies announced the withdrawal of their troops by September. In a strong sign of support for Afghanistan’s development and reforms, donors pledged some US$12 billion civilian grants over 2021–24 at the Geneva conference in November 2020.
    Date: 2021–06–28
  4. By: Commander, Simon (IE Business School, Altura Partners); Prieskienyte, Ruta (University of Bath)
    Abstract: Can autocracies and their associated institutions successfully implement economic policies that promote growth and investment? Can 'good economics' somehow offset the effects of 'bad' politics? Kazakhstan is a case where an autocratic regime has actively projected market-friendly policies and attracted significant amounts of incoming investment. These policies are to some extent reflected in the country's governance ratings, although there has been a significant amount of investment disputes that question the attachment to the rule of law. Moreover, the political regime remains strongly personalized around the founder President, his family and associates. This is reflected in the economics of the autocracy whereby a large public sector and a set of privately held businesses coexist to mutual benefit. The latter have been formed around a very small number of highly connected individuals whose initial accumulation of assets allows them also to act as necessary gatekeepers for entrants. Competition as a result remains limited in both economic and political domains. Yet, uncertainties over the future leadership, along with latent rivalry over access to resources and markets, make the political equilibrium quite fragile. In short, 'bad' politics both squeezes the space for, and distorts the benefits from, 'good' economics.
    Keywords: political networks, autocracy, investment
    JEL: D72 H11 L14 P26
    Date: 2021–07

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