nep-isf New Economics Papers
on Islamic Finance
Issue of 2021‒05‒31
three papers chosen by
Mohamed Mohamed Tolba Said

  1. COVID-19: Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan: Using SAM Multiplier Model By Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Haider, Zeeshan; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Rizwan, Noormah; Davies, Stephen; Rana, Abdul Wajid
  2. Impacts of Unusual Market Activity Announcement on Stock Return: Evidence from The Ace Market in Malaysia By Chen, Dylan Siong-Yain; Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
  3. ICT Diffusion, Foreign Direct Investment and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa By Isaac K. Ofori; Simplice A. Asongu

  1. By: Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Haider, Zeeshan; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Rizwan, Noormah; Davies, Stephen; Rana, Abdul Wajid
    Abstract: Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.
    Keywords: PAKISTAN, SOUTH ASIA, ASIA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, models, poverty, household income, gross national product, economic impact, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), lockdown,
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Chen, Dylan Siong-Yain; Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
    Abstract: This study examines the effect of Unusual Market Activity (UMA) announcement on stock return in Malaysian market with a sample of 62 companies listed on the ACE market at Bursa Malaysia for the period of 2007-2015. This study employs event study methodology to show that there were few days in which the average abnormal return (AAR) and cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) are statistically significant. In addition, this study also further investigates the abnormal return (AR) and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for individual companies. It was found that majority of the stocks returns fell significantly 30 days after the UMA announcement. The magnitude of the fall in returns ranges from 4% to 234%. Hence, it is not advisable for investors to buy stock after UMA announcement.
    Keywords: Unusual Market Activity; Ace Market; Stock Return; Bursa Malaysia
    JEL: G14
  3. By: Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This study examines the joint effects of ICT diffusion (composed of access, usage and skills), and foreign direct investment (FDI) on inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study draws on data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, and the Global Consumption and Income Project for the period 1980–2019 for the analysis. The study provides evidence robust to several specifications from ordinary least squares and dynamic system GMM estimation techniques to show that: (1) FDI and ICT diffusion and corresponding components (ICT access, usage, skills) induce inclusive growth in SSA; (2) compared to its direct effect, FDI is remarkable in fostering shared growth in SSA in the presence of greater ICT diffusion, and (3) compared to ICT access and usage, ICT skills are more effective in driving inclusive growth in SSA. Overall FDI modulates ICT dynamics to engender positive synergy effects on inclusive growth. Policy recommendations are provided in line with the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement and the projected rise in FDI in SSA from 2022.
    Keywords: FDI; ICT Access; ICT Diffusion; ICT Skills; ICT Usage; Inclusive Growth; sub- Saharan Africa
    JEL: E23 F21 F30 L96 O55
    Date: 2021–05

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