|
on Islamic Finance |
| By: | Toptancı, Ali İskan |
| Abstract: | Increases in oil prices; It is due to the recession, periods of extreme inflation, reduced productivity, and low economic growth. In this study, the arguments supporting such views will be examined. It will first examine how it evolves in response to conceptual challenges in assigning a central role to oil price shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations. Second, the idea that at least large oil price movements can be viewed as external to the US macroeconomy will be challenged. The evidence that has led many economists to give the oil market a central role in external political events will be examined critically. Third, even if none of the oil shocks are associated with stagflation of the US economy, the continuation of the oil shock, the US stagflation of the 1970s, is the idea that only oil price shocks can explain. This is not the case |
| Keywords: | Oil,Oil Price Shock,U.S.,Stagflation,Macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:231406&r=all |
| By: | Sugandi, Eric Alexander (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesia’s financial markets and monetary policy dynamics. We explore five types of financial markets in Indonesia: (1) the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) interbank money market; (2) the US Dollar (USD) interbank money market; (3) government conventional bond (SUN) markets; (4) the stock market; and (5) the USD/IDR spot market. We examine Bank Indonesia's (BI) three types of monetary policy instrument: (1) BI seven-day reverse repo rate; (2) minimum reserve requirement ratios; and (3) BI’s monetary operations. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic causes different impacts of particular monetary policy instruments on Indonesia’s financial markets during the pandemic compared with those in the non-pandemic period. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; monetary policy; Indonesia’s financial markets; Bank Indonesia |
| JEL: | E58 G10 |
| Date: | 2020–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1198&r=all |
| By: | Gene M Grossman (Princeton University); Elhanan Helpman (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We study unanticipated tariffs on imports of intermediate goods in a setting with firm-to-firm supply relationships. Firms that produce differentiated products conduct costly searches for potential input suppliers and negotiate bilateral prices with those that pass a reservation level of match productivity. Global supply chains are formed in anticipation of free trade.Once they are in place, the home government surprises with an input tariffs. This can lead to renegotiation with initial suppliers or new search for replacements. We identify circumstances in which renegotiation generates improvement or deterioration in the terms of trade. The welfare implications of a tariffs are ambiguous in this second-best setting, but plausible parameter values suggest a welfare loss that rises rapidly at high tariff rates. |
| Keywords: | global supply chains, global value chains, input tari§s, importedintermediate goods |
| JEL: | F13 F12 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:274&r=all |
| By: | Muhammad Mahajne (Univ. Lyon, UJM Saint-Etienne, CNRS, GATE L-SE UMR 5824, F-42023 Saint-Etienne, France) |
| Abstract: | We study a decision-maker who selects, in every fixed period of time, T times from every collection of feasible alternatives, where T is pre-determined by him. We axiomatize the class of T-choice functions according to which the decision-maker has fixed preference relation along the same period but has limited loyalty. The decision-maker selects, deterministically, in a way such that the higher an alternative is ranked by his preference relation the higher it is selected in his T choices. |
| Keywords: | Choice function, Axiomatization |
| JEL: | D01 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2103&r=all |
| By: | Daniela Scur; Raffaella Sadun; John Van Reenen; Renata Lemos; Nicholas Bloom |
| Abstract: | Understanding how differences in management “best practices” affect organizational outcomes has been a focus of both theoretical and empirical work in the fields of management, sociology, economics and public policy. The World Management Survey (WMS) project was born almost two decades ago with the main goal of developing a new systematic measure of management practices being used in organizations. The WMS has contributed to a body of knowledge around how managerial structures, not just managerial talent, relates to organizational performance. Over 18 years of research, a set of consistent patterns have emerged and spurred new questions. We will present a brief overview of what we have learned in terms of measuring and understanding management practices and condense the implications of these findings for policy. We end with an outline of what we see as the path forward for both research and policy implications of this research programme. |
| JEL: | L2 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28524&r=all |
| By: | Khan, M. Ali |
| Abstract: | Book Review of “The Wisdom of Finance: Discovering Humanity in the World of Risk and Return” by Mihir A. Desai |
| Date: | 2021–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:mdyzk&r=all |
| By: | Dorsaf Elbir Merhbene (Central Bank of Tunisia); ; |
| Abstract: | This study seeks to determine the relation between non-performing loans (NPLs) and bank profitability in Tunisia. This relation appears non-linear. We estimate a threshold of NPLs using an econometric framework. We examine the determinants affecting profitability over the Q4 2010 - Q4 2019 period for 10 Tunisian banks by estimating a model showing the impact of NPLs on bank profitability. The results indicate that banks with lower non-performing loan tend to have higher profitability. |
| Keywords: | NPLS; banking profitability |
| JEL: | G21 E58 P34 |
| Date: | 2021–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp03-2021&r=all |
| By: | Hafni, Nur |
| Abstract: | Batu City is known as one of the leading tourist cities in Indonesia because of its extraordinary potential of natural beauty. The purpose of this research is to analysize the actor network in tourism management based on sustainable development in Batu City. This study used a descriptive research method with a qualitative approach. As a result it is recommended to strengthen the role Department of Environmental Service in tourism development policies in Batu City. Batu City Government needs to establish a forum for “Community Conscious Environment” as a controlling agent. Batu City Government also needs to expand cooperation with academics, especially in environmental assessment cooperation. |
| Date: | 2020–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:cs3t4&r=all |
| By: | Boianovsky, Mauro |
| Abstract: | Book Review of “Ideas in the History of Economic Development – The Case of Peripheral Countries” edited by Estrella Trincado, Andrés Lazzarini, and Denis Melnik |
| Date: | 2021–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:re5b4&r=all |
| By: | Grover, Charu (Shaheed Bhagat Singh College, University of Delhi, India); Bansal, Sangeeta (Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, India); Martinez-Cruz, Adan L. (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics) |
| Abstract: | India's contribution to global CO2 emissions makes it a priority case for policy makers worldwide. The Indian government is considering the adoption of energy labels for new passenger cars to tackle CO2 emissions. This paper's first aim is to asses New Delhi's car buyers' preferences for cars displaying energy labels. To do so, a discrete choice experiment (DCE) has been designed to document both WTP for energy efficiency (212 USD for one kilometer per liter) and WTP for the best efficiency label (4.93 thousand USD). The informational nudge embedded in a labeling system may not be enough to boost uptake of efficient cars. Thus this paper investigates the potential of combining a labeling system and car driving restrictions. Via a split-sample approach, this paper documents an increase of 2.55 thousand USD in stated WTP for the best efficiency label. This number can be interpreted as reflecting the costs imposed by the driving restrictions on car drivers. Under this interpretation, 2.55 thousand USD fall within the range of estimations reported in previous studies. The results in this paper suggest that a combination of driving restrictions and a labeling system may deliver an increase in energy efficient cars in New Delhi. |
| Keywords: | Energy labeling system; driving restrictions; willingness to pay; discrete choice experiment; split-sample approach; New Delhi. |
| JEL: | Q48 Q50 |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:slucer:2021_004&r=all |
| By: | Asadul Islam; Minhaj Mahmud; Paul A. Raschky |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how exposure to a natural disaster affects risk-sharing behavior us-ing a unique field experiment in rural Bangladesh. We conducted a risk-sharing experiment that randomly assigned different levels of exogenous commitments to households in disasterexposed and unexposed villages and asked them to form risk-sharing groups. Our results show that disaster-affected individuals are less likely to defect from risk-sharing commit-ments, regardless of the level of ex-ante commitment. Interestingly, this group chose more risky bets and realized higher average returns compared to the non-disaster-affected group. Our results have important implications for the design of financial risk-transfer mechanisms in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Risk preference; risk sharing, intrinsic motivation; asymmetric information; natural disaster; field experiment |
| JEL: | C90 C93 D03 D71 D81 O12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2018-03&r=all |
| By: | Kiki Verico (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the second part of the first paper published by the LPEM UI on January 18th 2021 (Verico, 2021a). This first part discussed Indonesia’s output gap, the global pandemic’s impact, and the scenario to avoid the middle-income trap by 2040. In this second part, the paper figures out the manufacturing sector performance from 1968 until 2019, before the global pandemic hit Indonesia’s economy. Indonesia’s economy needs an adjustment that depends on the pandemic containment to achieve even higher economic growth to compensate for economic contraction during the pandemic. This paper finds that Indonesia’s manufacture can boost economic growth, decrease open unemployment and improve productivity. This paper argues that Indonesia can achieve the second wave of the Chenery-Syrquin phenomenon of economic transformation from service to manufacturing through two scenarios: one, medium to long-run over the enhancement of the backward linkage of global value chains (GVCs), and two, natural short-run with the role of information and communication technology (ICT). |
| Keywords: | economic growth — manufacturing — industrial structure — economic transformation — Information Communication Technology |
| JEL: | D83 F43 L60 N10 O14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202158&r=all |
| By: | Harin, Alexander |
| Abstract: | A forbidden zone theorem, hypothesis, and applied mathematical method and model are introduced in the present article. The method and model are based on the forbidden zones and hypothesis. The model is uniformly and successfully applied for different domains. The ultimate goal of the research is to solve some generic problems of behavioral economics. |
| Keywords: | Expectation; Variation; Boundary; Utility; Prospect theory; Behavioral economics; |
| JEL: | C02 C1 D8 D81 |
| Date: | 2021–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106545&r=all |
| By: | Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing |
| Abstract: | Using a novel dataset, we develop a structural model of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market between the Arabian Gulf and the Far East. We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand for oil tankers, to the utilization of tankers, and to the cost of operating tankers, including bunker fuel costs. Our analysis shows that time charter rates are largely unresponsive to tanker cost shocks. In response to higher costs, voyage profits decline, as cost shocks are only partially passed on to round-trip voyage rates. Oil exports from the Arabian Gulf also decline, reflecting lower demand for VLCCs. Positive utilization shocks are associated with higher profits, a slight increase in time charter rates and lower fuel prices and oil export volumes. Tanker supply and tanker demand shocks have persistent effects on time charter rates, round-trip voyage rates, the volume of oil exports, fuel prices, and profits with the expected sign. |
| Keywords: | Shipping,VLCC,crude oil,bunker fuel,tanker,voyage,time charter,profits,exports,passthrough |
| JEL: | Q43 R41 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:648&r=all |
| By: | Hagen Kruse; Emmanuel Mensah; Kunal Sen; Gaaitzen de Vries |
| Abstract: | This paper examines industrialization trends in developing countries. It uses the GGDC/UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database, which provides time series of employment and real and nominal value added annually by 12 sectors in 51 countries for the period 1990-2018. Until the early 2000s de-industrialization was widespread, but then the trend reversed. Regressions that control for income and demographic trends suggest significant employment industrialization in developing Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. We explore the nature of this manufacturing renaissance. |
| Keywords: | Industrialization, Economic Transformation Database, Manufacturing |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-28&r=all |
| By: | Ille, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Human cooperation for reasons other than self-interest has long intrigued social scientists leading to a substantial literature in economics. Its complement –sectarianism – has not received closer attention in economics despite its significant impact. Based on a dynamic model, the paper shows that sectarianism can be understood as the outcome of a repeated bargaining process in which sectarian affiliation evolves into a pure coordination signal that attributes economic and political benefits. It demonstrates that such sectarian social contracts co-evolve with the sects’ degree of coerciveness and are self-reinforcing. Sectarian conflict may then not be a result of diverging religious ideologies but is shown to be caused by external manipulations of the signal (e.g. via identity politics), and internal political and economic grievances within a sect that spill over to the inter-sectarian level while adopting a sectarian appearance. Theoretical results are supported by empirical findings from the Middle East. |
| Keywords: | Sectarianism Cooperation, Evolutionary game theory, Agent-based modelling |
| JEL: | C61 C7 C73 D74 P48 Z1 |
| Date: | 2021–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106451&r=all |
| By: | Kilian, Lutz |
| Abstract: | Using a novel dataset, we develop a structural model of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market between the Arabian Gulf and the Far East. We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand for oil tankers, to the utilization of tankers, and to the cost of operating tankers, including bunker fuel costs. Our analysis shows that time charter rates are largely unresponsive to tanker cost shocks. In response to higher costs, voyage profits decline, as cost shocks are only partially passed on to round-trip voyage rates. Oil exports from the Arabian Gulf also decline, reflecting lower demand for VLCCs. Positive utilization shocks are associated with higher profits, a slight increase in time charter rates and lower fuel prices and oil export volumes. Tanker supply and tanker demand shocks have persistent effects on time charter rates, round-trip voyage rates, the volume of oil exports, fuel prices, and profits with the expected sign. This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric problems that have been overlooked in this literature. Once these problems are recognized, seemingly conflicting conclusions in the recent literature can be resolved. My analysis reaffirms the conclusion that the one-month oil supply elasticity is close to zero, which implies that oil demand shocks are the dominant driver of the real price of oil. The focus of this paper is not only on correcting some misunderstandings in the recent literature, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers. |
| Keywords: | Oil supply elasticity,oil demand elasticity,IV estimation,structural VAR,Bayesian inference,oil price,gasoline price |
| JEL: | Q43 Q41 C36 C52 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:649&r=all |
| By: | Kaku Attah Damoah,; Giorgia Giovannetti; Enrico Marvasi |
| Abstract: | Since the start of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative, several countries became involved and some of them received investment projects. Using data for the period 2012-2018, we show that pre-existing trade patterns are related to the likelihood to participate in the initiative and receive investments. We summarize our findings into five stylized facts. First, BRI countries with completed projects tend to be poorer and larger. Second, projects are more likely to occur in countries with intensified intermediate trade with China. Third, countries that received projects have more diversified export structures and their sectoral specialization overlaps to that of China. Fourth, among middle-high income countries, projects tend to favor those with high levels of intra-industry trade. Fifth, among BRI countries with projects, the complexity or sophistication of goods trade increases faster with income. These findings suggest that the allocation of BRI investments partially reflects the trade patterns, favoring destinations with specific characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road, China, global value chains, trade in intermediates, centrality, networks. |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2021_02.rdf&r=all |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk (GIGA - German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ : Every three years, the AU-EU summit reunites African and EU leaders to outline the future direction of cooperation. The 6th summit had been to reaffirm and renew the partnership between the two blocks already in October 2020, but it was pushed back to the first quarter of 2021 or even later due to COVID-19 crisis. Besides, Brussels had to deal with its own post-Brexit situation and its repercussions on EU-Africa relations, excluding the UK. African states, for their part, wanted to renegotiate the EU-Africa partnership and to balance it with new promising Post-Brexit visions of the British premier Johnson about increased economic ties with the African Angloshere. China and other global players compete with the EU and its member states in the new scramble for African resources. Given that Africa is increasingly courted by other partners it could be inclined to successively limit its relations with the EU and see it as a mere provider of aid and security against Islamic terrorism. This trend was reinforced by the fact that the new EU-Africa strategy still hasn't been approved by EU member states. And a timely replacement of the Cotonou Agreement, which expires in November 2021, is open to question. RÉSUMÉ : Tous les trois ans, le sommet UA-UE réunit les dirigeants africains et européens pour définir l'orientation future de la coopération. Le 6e sommet devait réaffirmer et renouveler le partenariat entre les deux blocs déjà en octobre 2020, mais il a été repoussé au premier trimestre 2021, ou même plus tard, en raison de la crise du COVID-19. En outre, Bruxelles a dû faire face à sa propre situation post-Brexit, compte tenu l'exclusion du Royaume-Uni, et à ses répercussions sur les relations UE-Afrique. Les États africains, pour leur part, souhaitaient renégocier le partenariat UE-Afrique, et l'équilibrer avec les nouvelles visions post-Brexit prometteuses du Premier ministre britannique Johnson sur le renforcement des liens économiques avec l'Anglosphère africaine. La Chine et d'autres acteurs mondiaux sont en concurrence avec l'UE et ses États membre dans la nouvelle ruée vers les ressources africaines. Étant donné que l'Afrique est de plus en plus courtisée par d'autres partenaires, elle pourrait être encline à limiter successivement ses relations avec l'UE et à la considérer comme un simple fournisseur d'aide et de sécurité contre le terrorisme islamique. Cette tendance a été renforcée par le fait que la nouvelle stratégie UE-Afrique n'a toujours pas été approuvée par les États membres de l'UE. Et un remplacement opportun de l'accord de Cotonou, qui expire en novembre 2021, est sujet à caution. |
| Date: | 2021–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:africa:wqxd6&r=all |
| By: | Julien Levesque |
| Abstract: | From colonial census administrators to social scientists, scholars have debated whether Muslims in the subcontinent can be said to have castes. In recent decades, the discussion also entered the political arena over the issue of reservations in India. In order to offer an overview of the debates concerning caste among Muslims, mainly in North India and Pakistan, this article first shows that colonial scholars and administrators tended to understand the phenomenon as the product of a history of conquest and miscegenation. I then turn to socio-anthropological debates of the second half of the twentieth century that opposed scholars on whether a caste system existed among Muslims. Finally, I explore how new legal conceptions of caste among Indian Muslims became a stepping stone for political mobilization from the 1990s. |
| Keywords: | caste, social stratification,Islam,South Asia, India, Pakistan |
| JEL: | R50 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aed:wpaper:0015&r=all |
| By: | Dietrich, Stephan (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Giuffrida, Valerio (UNU-MERIT, and Research Assessment and Monitoring Division, UN World Food Programme); Martorano, Bruno (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Schmerzeck, Georg (Department of Philosophy, Linguistics and Theory of Science, University of Gothenburg) |
| Abstract: | Governments around the world have taken drastic measures to contain the spread of the new Coronavirus. Policy responses to the pandemic could affect local food prices in sensitive ways. We hypothesize that mobility restrictions reduce trade, which increases food price dispersion and prices in regionally integrated markets, but not in segmented markets. We use WFP price data of 798 retail markets in 47 low to middle income countries to test if and how food prices were affected by the stringency of COVID- 19 measures. We assess market segmentation based on pre-COVID-19 price data and measure government responses using the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker. Our results show that more stringent policy responses increase food prices for integrated and less remote markets but not for segmented markets. The impact of the stringency of policy reposes on food prices is mediated by reductions in mobility and moderated by markets' pre-Corona dependency on trade. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Prices, Food, Market Integration, Public Policy |
| JEL: | H12 D4 Q11 Q18 D04 |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021008&r=all |
| By: | Skjönsberg, Max |
| Abstract: | Book Review of “A Philosopher’s Economist: Hume and the Rise of Capitalism” by Margaret Schabas and Carl Wennerlind |
| Date: | 2021–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:u4rq6&r=all |
| By: | Odhiambo, Nicholas M |
| Abstract: | In this study, the causal relationship between health expenditure and economic growth is examined using panel data from sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2008-2017. The study decomposes health expenditure into two components: public health expenditure and private health expenditure. In order to establish whether the causal relationship between health expenditure and economic growth depends on a country?s level of income, the study divides the studied countries into two groups: low-income countries and middle-income countries. In order to address the omission-of-variable bias, which is associated with some of the previous studies, the study incorporates life expectancy as an intermittent variable between health expenditure and economic growth ? thereby creating a system of multivariate equations. Using a panel ECM-based Granger-causality model, the study found that when public expenditure is used as a proxy, a distinct unidirectional causality from health expenditure to economic growth is found to prevail in low-income countries, but no causality is found to exist in middle-income countries. However, when private health expenditure is used, a short-run causality from economic growth to health expenditure is found to prevail in middle-income countries, but no causality is found to exist in low-income countries. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Health Expenditure; Economic Growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; Panel Granger Causality |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:27167&r=all |
| By: | Byahut, Rajkumar; Dutta, Sourish; Iyer, Chidambaran G.; Nataraj, Manikantha |
| Abstract: | The importance of trade to an economy needs no emphasis. You sell products or services that you are competitive at and buy those where you are not. Experience of countries such as South Korea and China demonstrate that resources required for development can be garnered through trade; thus, motivating many countries to embrace trade as a means for development. Simultaneously, emergence of 'Global Value Chain' or 'GVC' as they are popularly known has changed the way we trade. Though the concept of GVC was introduced in the early 2000s, there are examples of global value chains before the 1980s. However, the scale of the phenomenon and the way in which technological change, by lowering trade costs, has allowed fragmentation of production was not possible before (Hernandez et al., 2014). In this context, the World Bank has recently published its 'World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains' (WDR). The report prescribes that GVCs still offer developing countries a clear path to progress and that developing countries can achieve better outcomes by pursuing market-oriented reforms specific to their stage of development. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains,International Trade,Global Production Network,Firm-level Trade |
| JEL: | F0 F1 F2 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:231380&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Indonesia has responded with a bold and comprehensive policy package to cushion the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy rebounded in the third quarter of 2020, and the economic recovery is projected to strengthen in 2021 and 2022. Strong policy support and an improving global economy will be the main drivers initially, and greater mobility and confidence will follow with the planned vaccination program in 2021. The uncertainty surrounding the growth outlook is larger than usual. Early completion of a widespread vaccination program is an upside risk, while a protracted pandemic remains a downside risk. The macro-financial fallout of the pandemic and economic downturn could be larger than expected, and credit conditions could be slow to improve. Ongoing reforms aimed at promoting investment are expected to help mitigate the scarring effects from the pandemic and put the economy on a sustained growth path that builds on Indonesia’s favorable demographics. |
| Date: | 2021–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/046&r=all |
| By: | Caria, Stefano (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Gordon, Grant; Kasy, Maximilian (Department of Economics, University of Oxford, M); Quinn, Simon; Shami, Soha; Teytelboym, Alexander |
| Abstract: | We introduce an adaptive targeted treatment assignment methodology for field experiments. Our Tempered Thompson Algorithm balances the goals of maximizing the precision of treatment effect estimates and maximizing the welfare of experimental participants. A hierarchical Bayesian model allows us to adaptively target treatments. We implement our methodology in Jordan, testing policies to help Syrian refugees and local jobseekers to find work. The immediate employment impacts of a small cash grant, information and psychological support are small, but targeting raises employment by 1 percentage-point (20%). After four months, cash has a sizable effect on employment and earnings of Syrians. JEL Classification: C93 ; J6 ; O15 Creation date: 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1335&r=all |
| By: | Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa); Qiang Ji (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the predictive value of tail risks for oil returns using the longest possible data available for the modern oil industry, i.e., 1859-2020. The Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) of Engle & Manganelli (2004) is employed to generate the tail risks for both 1% and 5% VaRs across four variants (Adaptive, Symmetric absolute value, Asymmetric slope and Indirect GARCH) of the CAViaR with the best variant obtained using the Dynamic Quantile test (DQ) test and %Hits. Overall, our proposed predictive model for oil returns that jointly accommodates tail risks associated with the oil market and US financial market improves the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of oil returns in contrast with a benchmark (random walk) model as well as a one-predictor model with own tail risk only. Our results have important implications for academicians, investors and policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Oil returns, Tail risks, Forecasting, Advanced equity markets |
| JEL: | C22 C53 G15 Q02 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202120&r=all |
| By: | Iacoella, Francesco (UNU-MERIT); Tirivayi, Nyasha (UNU-MERIT, and UNICEF Innocenti RC) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the role of mobile phone connectivity on HIV testing in sub-Saharan Africa. We make use of the novel and comprehensive OpencellID cell tower database, and DHS geocoded information for over 400,000 women in 28 Sub-Saharan African countries. We examine whether women's community distance from the closest cell-tower influences knowledge about HIV testing facilities and the likelihood of ever been tested for HIV. After finding a negative and significant impact of distance on our main outcomes, we investigate the mechanisms through which such effects might occur. Our analysis shows that proximity to a cell tower increases HIV-related knowledge as well as reproductive health knowledge. Similar results are observed when the analysis is performed at community level. Results suggest that the effect of mobile phone connectivity is channelled through increased knowledge of HIV, STIs, and modern contraceptive methods. Further analysis shows that cell phone ownership has an even larger impact on HIV testing and knowledge. This paper adds to recent literature on the impact of mobile-based HIV prevention schemes by showing through large-scale analysis that better mobile network access is a powerful tool to spread reproductive health knowledge and increase HIV awareness. |
| Keywords: | Technological change, mobile technology, public health, HIV, reproductive health |
| JEL: | O33 D83 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2021010&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Mouna Amari (University of Sfax, Tunisia); Anis Jarboui (University of Sfax, Tunisia); Khaireddine Mouakhar (Normandy Business School, France) |
| Abstract: | This study examines linkages between information and communication technology (ICT) dynamics, inequality and poverty in order to establish critical masses of poverty and inequality that should not be exceeded in order for ICT dynamics to promote gender inclusive education in 57 developing countries for the period 2012-2016. Poverty is measured with the poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of the population) while inequality is proxied by the Gini coefficient, the Atkinson index and the Palma ratio. The ICT dynamics are measured with ‘internet access in school’, ‘virtual social network’, ‘personal computers’ ‘mobile phone penetration’, ‘internet penetration’ and ‘fixed broadband subscriptions’. The empirical evidence is based on interactive Generalized Method of Moments estimators from which thresholds are computed contingent on the validity of tested hypotheses. First, the Gini coefficient should not exceed 0.5618 in order for ‘internet access in school’ to positively affect inclusive education. Second, the poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of the population) should remain below 33.6842% in order for ‘internet access in school’ to favorably influence inclusive education. Third, the Palma ratio should not exceed 3.3766 in order for internet penetration to favorably affect inclusive education. Fourth, for personal computers to increase inclusive education, the Gini coefficient, Palma ratio and poverty headcount (% of the population) should not exceed 0.4781, 3.5294 and 17.7272, respectively. The study confirms the significant role technological deepening plays in advancing inclusive education by means of policies that reduce poverty and income inequality, with potentially wider applicability to other developing economies. The study has provided poverty and inequality levels that should not be exceeded in order for personal computers, internet penetration and ‘internet access in school’ to promote gender inclusive education. |
| Keywords: | Inclusive, Education, Inequality, Technology, Thresholds |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/012&r=all |
| By: | Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed; Kaneez Fatima |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on stock market volatility (SMV) in Pakistan by controlling the effect of exchange rate, interest rate and government/central bank interventions to combat the pandemic. We used the vector autoregressive (VAR) model over a sample period ranging from February 25, 2020 to December 7, 2020. We find that a shock to total daily coronavirus cases in Pakistan lead to a significant increase in SMV. This result is aligned with a vast literature on pandemics and investors uncertainty and remains robust to several robustness checks applied in our analysis. |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.03219&r=all |
| By: | Leininger, Julia; Strupat, Christoph; Adeto, Yonas Adaye; Shimeles, Abebe; Wasike, Wilson; Aleksandrova, Mariya; Berger, Axel; Brandi, Clara; Brüntrup, Michael; Burchi, Francesco; Dick, Eva; El-Haddad, Amirah; Fiedler, Charlotte; Hackenesch, Christine; Houdret, Annabelle; Lehmann, Ina; Malerba, Daniele; Marschall, Paul; Mross, Karina; Schiller, Armin$cvon; Schraven, Benjamin; Ziaja, Sebastian; Adel, Marian; Gitt, Florian |
| Abstract: | This study analyses how strengths and weaknesses of economic, societal, political and environmental structures played out during the Covid-19 crisis in Africa since March 2020. Its main aim is to improve evidence on the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic on African countries and, based on that evidence, identify policy implications and formulate recommendations. It comprises the analysis of (a) direct impacts of the pandemic as well as of policy responses such as lockdowns and their potential determinants; (b) indirect effects of lockdowns and policy responses to the pandemic on economic, social, political and environmental domains in the light of structural strengths and weaknesses of African countries. In general, the study is based on the assumption that economic and other structures determine the magnitude and direction of the pandemic's impact on the short and long run. Its added value is the thematic comprehensiveness and the comparative analysis of country clusters. Amongst many other findings, the analysis shows the important role of social cohesion for coping with the pandemic and for sustainable development on the longer run. This implies the need for (a) material and immaterial investments in good and trustful relationships within societies and between society and the state; (b) incentives for increasing cooperation of individuals for a common good need to be at the core of future development strategies. It identifies a trias of political priorities, which are all equally important and relate to each other. They contain (a) inclusive and green economic development that must be linked to (b) the establishment and improvement of universal social systems (health, education, social protection in case of poverty, old age and unemployment) as well as (c) a redesign of political institutions that are capable and inclusive to collect revenues and provide public goods. (d) None of these policy priorities will be effective on the long run without saving ecosystems. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:112021&r=all |
| By: | Jaymee Sheng; Anup Malani; Ashish Goel; Purushotham Botla |
| Abstract: | SARS-CoV-2 has had a greater burden, as measured by rate of infection, in poorer communities within cities. For example, 55% of Mumbai slums residents had antibodies to COVID-19, 3.2 times the seroprevalence in non-slum areas of the city according to a sero-survey done in July 2020. One explanation is that government suppression was less severe in poorer communities, either because the poor were more likely to be exempt or unable to comply. Another explanation is that effective suppression itself accelerated the epidemic in poor neighborhoods because households are more crowded and residents share toilet and water facilities. We show there is little evidence for the first hypothesis in the context of Mumbai. Using location data from smart phones, we find that slum residents had nominally but not significantly (economically or statistically) higher mobility than non-slums prior to the sero-survey. We also find little evidence that mobility in non-slums was lower than in slums during lockdown, a subset of the period before the survey. |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I15 I18 R0 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28541&r=all |
| By: | Odhiambo, Nicholas M |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the casual relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Kenya during the period 1980-2018 is examined. In an attempt to address the omission-of-variable bias, which has been detected in some previous studies, two variables, namely money supply and trade, are used as intermittent variables, thereby leading to a system of multivariate Granger-causality equations. Using the ARDL bounds testing approach, the results show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to FDI in Kenya. These results apply, irrespective of whether the causality is conducted in the short run or in the long run. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the current burgeoning FDI inflows that Kenya has attracted in recent years are largely driven by the strong economic growth and prudent macroeconomic policies that the country has been pursuing in recent decades. To our knowledge, this may be the first study of its kind to examine in detail the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth in Kenya in recent years. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:27168&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Joseph Nnanna (The Development Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses how globalization modulates the effect of governance on CO2 emissions in sub-Saharan African countries. The empirical evidence is based on Generalized Method of Moments. The minimum level (or negative threshold) of FDI required for it to interact with political stability and contribute towards the green economy is 45% of GDP, while 90% of GDP is the maximum level (or positive threshold) required for trade to complement “voice & accountability†in mitigating CO2 emissions. 76 % of GDP and 80 % of GDP are respectively negative trade thresholds for government effectiveness and economic governance. The corresponding negative trade thresholds for the rule of law, corruption-control and institutional governance are respectively, 230% of GDP, 63.5% of GDP and 106.5% of GDP. Actionable openness policy thresholds are provided to inform policy makers on how governance interacts with globalization to promote the green economy. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions; Economic development; Africa |
| JEL: | C52 O38 O40 O55 P37 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/015&r=all |
| By: | Kauffman, Howel |
| Abstract: | This study seeks to empirically examine the Relation between OCB (with exterior behaviors), conflict managing, and productivity on the sample of 203 single working mothers in Vietnam and UAE. We utilized the newly proposed version of OCB theory which incorporates the “exterior” behaviors[1] .New studies proposes that the conflict occurrence management is now believed to be the better solutions of the interpersonal conflicts [2]. Following this new proposal, we collected the data on ‘’managing the conflict occurrence’’, instead of the data of traditional conflict resolution. Again, instead of collecting data in conventional way, we collected the data of micro-information two times a day (working day). We applied a range of parametric and no-parametric statistical techniques in order to investigate the relationship between them. The results indicates that OCB with exterior behavior and conflict occurrence management has significant and positive impact on the productivity. Lastly, this research proposes some Human resources management (HRM) policies for Vietnam, in order to achieve the 3P: Population, Property, and Productivity. |
| Date: | 2021–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rnbkf&r=all |
| By: | Aliisa Koivisto; Nicholas Musoke; Dorothy Nakyambadde; Caroline Schimanski |
| Abstract: | We study how large domestic firms and multinational corporations compare in their effective tax rates and whether there is evidence of profit shifting out of Uganda. Using administrative data from the Uganda Revenue Authority and regression analysis, we find that multinational corporations lower their corporate tax burden through two channels: lower effective tax rates and profit shifting. Multinational corporations pay lower effective tax rates, by approximately 20 percentage points, on their reported profits than large domestic corporations because of tax treaties and other benefits. |
| Keywords: | Multinational firms, Profit shifting, Corporations |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-51&r=all |
| By: | Jade Benjamin-Chung; Yoshika S. Crider; Andrew Mertens; Ayse Ercumen; Amy J. Pickering; Audrie Lin; Lauren Steinbaum; Jenna Swarthout; Mahbubur Rahman; Sarker M. Parvez; Rashidul Haque; Sammy M. Njenga; Jimmy Kihara; Clair Null; Stephen P. Luby; John M. Colford; Jr.; Benjamin F. Arnold |
| Abstract: | Soil-transmitted helminths and Giardia duodenalis are responsible for a large burden of disease globally. |
| Keywords: | Household Finished Flooring , Soil-Transmitted Helminth , Giardia Infections , Children in Rural Bangladesh and Kenya |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:6e02a5af1a7c4763a5d7ca0c1ab4a1ce&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Pre-pandemic, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) economy was growing, but at a pace below the more successful countries in Eastern Europe. The pandemic generated a substantial output contraction in 2020. Early in the pandemic, the authorities successfully implemented restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus and took measures to support firms and households. However, the ongoing second wave poses additional challenges. A gradual recovery is expected for the second half of 2021. Political disagreements about policy coordination at the BiH State level have hampered program implementation under the 2016 EFF arrangement and the deepening of the single economic space. The challenge is to deal with the pandemic and put the economy on a higher medium-term growth trajectory. |
| Date: | 2021–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/043&r=all |
| By: | Jeet Agnihotri; Subhankar Mishra |
| Abstract: | Forecasting economic growth of India has been traditionally an uncertain exercise. The indicators and factors affecting economic structures and the variables required to model that captures the situation correctly is point of concern. Although the forecast should be specific to the country we are looking at however countries do have interlinkages among them. As the time series can be more volatile and sometimes certain variables are unavailable it is harder to predict for the developing economies as compared to stable and developed nations. However it is very important to have accurate forecasts for economic growth for successful policy formations. One of the hypothesized indicators is the nighttime lights. Here we aim to look for a relationship between GDP and Nighttime lights. Specifically we look at the DMSP and VIIRS dataset. We are finding relationship between various measures of economy. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.03179&r=all |
| By: | Alina Carare; Carlos de Resende; Andrew T. Levin; Chelsea Zhang |
| Abstract: | Microeconomic evidence indicates a very high frequency of price adjustment in low income countries (LICs), raising the question of whether LICs may be reasonably characterized as exhibiting monetary neutrality. To address this question, we analyze a cross-country panel dataset of 79 LICs over the period 1990 to 2015 to assess the impact of external shocks on real GDP growth, and we find highly significant differences between LICs where the central bank targets monetary aggregates or inflation compared to LICs that maintain rigid nominal exchange rates. We also conduct an event study of the surprise devaluation of the Central African Franc (CFA) in January 1994 and find that it had highly significant effects on the output growth of 10 CFA countries relative to 18 similar countries outside the CFA zone. Consequently, the hypothesis of monetary neutrality is decisively rejected, and these findings provide strong support for the role of monetary policy frameworks in fostering price stability and macroeconomic stability in LICs. |
| JEL: | E02 E52 E58 O11 O23 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28536&r=all |
| By: | Doon, Roshnie |
| Abstract: | The main aim of this study is to analyse the wage returns of Overeducated workers employed in Trinidad and Tobago. To undertake such a study, data from the Continuous Sample Survey of Population (CSSP) for the period 1991-2015 is used to estimate an initial OLS and Quantile regression version of the Mincerian Earnings equations, which is commonly used in the education mismatch literature. To observe the unconditional partial effects of small changes in wage returns of overeducated workers at the mean, the Recentred Influence Function is estimated. The results reveal that if the earnings of overeducated workers who receive low wages, was replaced with that of high wages, then this would lead to a rise, or shift in the returns of overeducated workers, if only their biographical information is considered. The inclusion of their skill and geographic location would cause their earnings to shift further. The shift in the earnings of overeducated workers, when examined across the wage distribution, would tend to favor those who were married, younger, i.e., in the 25-35 age group, who were highly skilled at their jobs. These groups of overeducated workers would experience the lowest wage penalties in comparison to their single, mature, and semi-skilled colleagues. |
| Keywords: | Job-Education Mismatch,Overeducation,Unconditional Quantile Regression,Trinidad and Tobago |
| JEL: | D31 I26 J31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:797&r=all |
| By: | Eugenia C. Go (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | I investigate the effect of a transport program in the Philippines on domesticmaritime trade patterns. The Roll-on Roll-off Terminal System (RRTS) introduced in 2003 promotes the use of roll-on roll-off ships for interisland trade. Exploiting the variation in the availability of services between ports and the timing at which they were introduced, I find that port-pairs in RRTS trade 35% more compared to unconnected pairs with comparable characteristics. This gain largely comes from the greater variety of products traded along RRTS pairs. Transactions are 7.7% to 9.3% more frequent in RRTS routes, suggestive of inventory management as an avenue of trade costs savings. The strong responses in the extensive margin and transaction frequency highlight how the RRTS reduced the fixed cost of trade. High value and time-sensitive products systematically benefit more from the RRTS. These gains do not come from displacing trade from competing non-RRTS ports. Instead, the RRTS complements trade in liner routes by supporting feeder traffic. |
| Keywords: | Trade cost, transport cost, trade patterns |
| JEL: | F14 F63 R40 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0421&r=all |
| By: | Waithaka, Michael; Mugoya, Mainza; Mabaya, Edward; Tihanyi, Krisztina |
| Abstract: | The overall goal of decentralizing seed services is to increase the availability and accessibility of quality seed to farmers. The governments of Uganda and Tanzania have endeavoured to enhance access to improved seed for smallholder farmers. These efforts have achieved results and encountered challenges. The successes include an increase in the number of key players in the seed sector in general. In Uganda, the number of community seed banks (CSBs) has increased from one to five over the last five years (Adokorach et al., 2020). The number of Local Seed Businesses (LSBs)has increased from 27 in 2012 to 256 in 2020. In addition to the increase in actors involved in improved seed production, the interaction between them has also improved. The LSBs are developing strong links with the Zonal Agricultural Research and Development Institute (ZARDI), and the CSBs are working closely with the Plant Genetic Resources Centre. In Tanzania, the government has demonstrated willingness to support the production of Quality Declared Seed (QDS) through the enactment of the QDS Regulations in July 2020. The new regulations clarify hitherto grey areas and introduce fees for inspection, germination, and moisture tests, among others. In addition to introducing the regulations, the sector has also demonstrated steady performance over the years. QDS production has increased five-fold between 2015 and 2019. QDS farmers work closely with the Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute (TARI), the Agricultural Seed Agency (ASA) and district agricultural officers to ensure that farmers produce quality seeds. Despite these notable improvements, various challenges affect the performance of the decentralized seed system. The two specific services that have yet to be fully decentralized are the management of plant genetic resources in Tanzania and seed testing in both countries. Even though other seed services have been decentralized, further challenges persist. For example, some of the system's key players, namely the CSBs, LSBs, and QDS farmers, are not yet financially sustainable. These entities are still dependent on external project support. Without it they may not cover some of their operational costs. It is important to note that the decentralized system's challenges may be, because the system and some of the players are still in their infancy. The regulatory framework for QDS is yet to be finalized and implemented in Uganda. In addition, most of the CSBs and LSBs are less than seven years old. The first few years of their operations were mainly dedicated to setting up their governance and operational structures. An evaluation of their performance over the next few years would provide a completer and more comprehensive picture of their performance and the viability of various decentralized services. One notable difference between the QDS system in Uganda and Tanzania is the presence of a coordinating entity. In Uganda, Integrated Seed Sector Development (ISSD) Uganda has actively played the role of a coordinating agency to advance the production of QDS in the country. In Tanzania, such an agency does not exist. As such, many activities in Tanzania are less coordinated. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Industrial Organization, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2021–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubonwp:309806&r=all |