|
on Investment |
| By: | Kyung-In Hwang (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Talk of a crisis in Korea’s battery industry has not subsided. Slowing demand for electric vehicles, China’s expanding market share, and mounting policy uncertainty in major economies have arrived together, and the earnings of Korean firms have suffered as a result. What deserves attention, however, is that this recent weakness does not stem from any stagnation in the global battery industry. World battery demand continues to rise in existing markets, on the intensive margin, and demand in new applications, on the extensive margin, has lately been expanding quickly.<p> This paper shows that the root cause of the crisis in Korea’s battery industry lies not in the electric vehicle chasm itself but in an erosion of competitiveness in the country’s core market and core product. It further argues that the industry’s center of growth is shifting structurally from electric vehicles to energy storage systems (ESS), and it focuses on the US ESS market, which is growing on the strength of expanding renewable generation and the spread of AI data centers. The United States is combining tariff policy with the supply chain restrictions attached to the advanced manufacturing production credit (AMPC) to reduce its reliance on Chinese ESS and build a supply chain centered on itself. These policy changes are expected to open new growth opportunities for Korean battery firms that have established production bases on US soil.<p> ESS is critical infrastructure underpinning the global energy transition and the spread of the AI industry. Building ESS into a new engine of growth for Korea’s battery industry will require using US supply chain policy strategically, and it will also require expanded policy support to strengthen the domestic battery materials industry, to upgrade the systems through which Korea responds to industrial and trade policy in major economies, and to build capability in next-generation ESS technology and system integration (SI). |
| Keywords: | ESS; AI data centers; AIDC; secondary batteries; power grids; tariffs; domestic production tax credit |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:023647 |
| By: | Dennis J. Snower |
| Abstract: | Evolutionary economics explains economic change through variation, selection, retention, transmission, innovation, and institutional transformation, whereas much of economics explains outcomes through purposive choice. This article argues that these modes of explanation become recursively connected once economic agents can represent the evolutionary processes in which they participate and intentionally alter their operation. It develops the concept of reflexive economic evolution: agents do not merely choose within given constraints or adapt to existing selection pressures, but can generate new possibilities, modify selection environments, organize transmission, and sometimes revise the criteria and mechanisms by which variants are selected. This latter second-order capacity is termed meta-selection. Reflexive economic evolution does not imply comprehensive control or a predetermined social end-state: guidance changes the distribution of possible trajectories under uncertainty rather than determining a trajectory. The framework shows how intentional and evolutionary explanations can be causally complementary, why effective agency is partly endogenous, and why policy should be understood not only as changing current outcomes but also as reshaping the evolutionary environment in which subsequent adaptation and innovation occur. |
| Keywords: | evolutionary economics, economic methodology, agency, reflexivity, causation, meta-selection, institutions, teleology |
| JEL: | B41 B52 D02 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12965 |
| By: | Kauhanen, Antti (ETLA Economic Research); Riukula, Krista (ETLA Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether collective bargaining can reduce gender inequality through targeted wage increases. We examine the Finnish equality allowance, a small contractual wage component corresponding to a wage increase of up to 0.5 percent, introduced in the 2005 comprehensive agreement and implemented in collective agreements in 2006. Using worker-level earnings data linked to collective agreements, we estimate its effects with difference-in-differences methods robust to heterogeneous treatment effects. Equality allowances were more commonly applied in more female-dominated sectors and occupations. Our preferred analysis focuses on the private-sector agreements, where some agreements introduced an equality allowance and others did not. We find no statistically significant effects on hourly earnings, working hours, or employer mobility. However, subgroup analyses provide some evidence of reduced working hours among low-wage women. The findings suggest that a small equality-oriented wage component was insufficient to produce detectable wage gains for women or narrow the gender wage gap, with point estimates consistent with partial offsetting through other components of the contractual settlement. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining, gender wage gap, equality allowance, targeted wage increases, Finland |
| JEL: | J52 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18932 |
| By: | Grégory Chaudemanche (UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, NIMEC - Normandie Innovation Marché Entreprise Consommation - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université) |
| Abstract: | In for-profit organizations, French low-tech principles clash with entrepreneurial constraints. Then, how do for-profit organizations manage to integrate the principles of the French low-tech approach into a viable business model? What are the strategic and managerial implications? This poster presents the author's doctoral research to a broad audience, outlining its theoretical and practical objectives. |
| Abstract: | Dans les organisations à but lucratif, les principes low-tech se confrontent aux contraintes entrepreneuriales. Comment les organisations à but lucratif parviennent-elles alors à intégrer les principes de la démarche low-tech dans un modèle d'affaires viable ? Avec quelles implications stratégiques et managériales ? Le poster présente globalement, à un public large, le travail de thèse de l'auteur, et en précise les objectifs théoriques et pratiques. |
| Keywords: | French low-tech, Entrepreneurship, Business model, Strong sustainability, Soutenabilité forte, Modèle d'affaires, Entrepreneuriat, Low-tech |
| Date: | 2026–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05752462 |
| By: | Peter Reinhard Hansen; Werner Ploberger; Chen Tong |
| Abstract: | We study identity testing for high-dimensional covariance matrices against dense alternatives of unknown direction, with $p/n \to \gamma$. Along a globally positive quadratic precision path, mixing Gaussian alternatives over a Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble direction yields a contiguous experiment whose log likelihood reduces to the corrected Frobenius statistic; its upper-tail test attains the limiting weighted-power envelope at every fixed strength. Fixing the prior's Frobenius radius perturbs the mixture by only $O(p^{-1/2})$ in total variation, and exact whitening carries the experiment, the statistic, and its null law to any known null covariance. Separately, under a product-coordinate null, feasibility needs only $4+\eta$ moments, plus identical distributions over time when means are estimated; studentization and an exact degrees-of-freedom correction preserve the local power. A stability inequality turns near-envelope attainment into null agreement with the Frobenius rule, so uniform noninferiority on the typical dense bulk precludes gains at any contiguous alternative. For trace-matched rank-one alternatives, the corrected statistic is the first likelihood direction when $\vartheta_n \to 0$ and $n\vartheta_n \to \infty$; at fixed strength, the log likelihood ratio in the Onatski-Moreira-Hallin fixed-spike benchmark is governed by a richer linear spectral statistic below the Baik-Ben Arous-Peche threshold, while eigenvalue separation permits cost-free largest-eigenvalue enhancement above it. Simulations illustrate the theory. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.27200 |
| By: | Sabet, Navid; Yuchtman, Noam |
| Abstract: | We empirically identify politically-motivated redistricting and its consequences, studying the effects of changed electorate composition on US congressional district boundaries and on political outcomes. We exploit the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA), which legalized millions of immigrants, changing local electorates without changing demographics— legalized immigrants were already counted in the census. Where Democrats controlled the 1990 redistricting process, higher IRCA populations were associated with more spatially distorted districts. Consistent with theory, Democrats packed Hispanics(their ardent supporters) into majority-minority districts. House delegations had more Hispanics suggesting that partisan gerrymandering, in this case, increased representation among the historically underrepresented. |
| Keywords: | gerrymandering;minority political representation;immigrant legalization;state governance |
| JEL: | D70 P00 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126163 |
| By: | Katsutoshi Nohara |
| Abstract: | This study applies a partial proportional-odds model to examine whether people’s psychological distance from climate change changed during a period encompassing the unprecedented heat experienced in Japan in 2023 and 2024. It also investigates how psychological distance and environmental knowledge are associated with willingness to pay for climate change mitigation measures. The study draws on two repeated cross-sectional surveys using identical questionnaires administered to different respondents in 2022 and 2025. Propensity scores and overlap weighting were used to improve the comparability of the two survey samples by balancing observed differences in age, gender, and prefecture of residence. After this adjustment, respondents in 2025 were more likely than comparable respondents in 2022 to perceive climate change as psychologically proximate. Specifically, the predicted probability of reporting a high level of psychological proximity was approximately 13 percentage points higher in 2025. Although this difference cannot be attributed exclusively to the record-breaking heat experienced in 2023 and 2024, the findings suggest that the unprecedented heat may have contributed to making climate change appear more immediate and personally relevant. Furthermore, the contingent valuation analysis shows that the positive association between environmental knowledge and willingness to pay depends on psychological distance: greater environmental knowledge is associated with higher willingness to pay, particularly among individuals who perceive climate change as psychologically close. These findings provide important insights into the design and communication of climate policies. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:89 |
| By: | Riccardo Di Francesco; Peter Hull; Seetha Menon |
| Abstract: | We study how firms’ orientation toward employee well-being shapes the health of their workers. Because this orientation is not directly observable, we measure it from the language Danish firms use in their public disclosures, applying language models to construct a firm-level well-being salience score. We link this score to population-wide administrative registers of health and sickness absence over 2013–2022, and exploit workers’ mobility between firms to estimate how workers respond to a change in the salience of their employer. We find an asymmetry: workers who move to higher-salience firms take substantially more sickness absence, while their use of health care does not change. Because worsening health would raise both, the absence response suggests a behavioral change rather than deteriorating health. Broadly, our results show that firms shape not only worker health but how workers act on it, and that the language of routine corporate disclosure can reveal economically meaningful features of the workplace that administrative data leave unrecorded. |
| JEL: | I12 J28 J32 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35760 |
| By: | Johannes Brutsche; Julian Sester; Thorsten Schmidt |
| Abstract: | We give a two-period counterexample to the absence of arbitrage for the posterior-weighted pricing rule in Estimate nothing by Duembgen and Rogers. Both physical models have strictly positive transition densities, and each model is equipped with an equivalent martingale measure. Nevertheless, the mixed price of a single derivative falls deterministically from $5/2$ to $2$ between two trading dates. If these prices are tradable, shorting the derivative and closing the position one period later yields a certain profit. A finite-state appendix also illustrates the failure of recursive consistency. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.12515 |
| By: | Bruno N. Costa; Florian F. Gunsilius |
| Abstract: | In many statistical settings, the available data and maintained assumptions do not suffice to uniquely identify the model parameters of interest. In such cases, one can only identify sets which are guaranteed to contain the true parameters. These are often characterized through linear programs that optimize over models compatible with the observed data. These programs can be infinite-dimensional in the optimizer and the number of constraints. We provide a unified way to characterize and solve such optimization problems by phrasing them as optimal transport problems on path spaces. This allows us to regularize the problem with an entropy penalty, recasting it as a multi-marginal entropic optimal transport problem, which can be solved efficiently via Sinkhorn iterations. In addition, it allows us to establish convergence of the regularized value to the sharpest bound, derive consistency rates for a plug-in estimator, and obtain asymptotic distribution for approximate bounds. The method is general and accommodates settings ranging from instrumental variable models with continuous variables to welfare estimation in heterogeneous demand models. We verify the statistical and computational properties in simulations and provide an application to demand estimation. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.40156 |
| By: | Fernando Toledo; Gabriel Montes-Rojas |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how geo-economic fragmentation affects the international allocation of capital in an economy where artificial intelligence (AI) relies on specialized, mobile investment. We develop a heterogeneous-agent open-economy model with AI-specific capital and geopolitical frictions in cross-border asset holdings. These frictions reduce capital mobility, raise the cost of AI adoption, and generate distributional effects across countries and households. The quantitative results show that fragmentation produces welfare losses that rise nonlinearly with geopolitical distance. These losses are larger for AI-lagging economies and for low-wealth households, mainly through reduced investment, weaker labor income, and tighter financial conditions. The paper also defines a so-called Fragmented-AI Trilemma: economies cannot simultaneously preserve monetary autonomy, maintain efficient AI-capital allocation, and insulate themselves from geopolitical shocks. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.18976 |
| By: | Joshua S. Gans; Richard Holden |
| Abstract: | Oversight changes the evidence it relies on. We ask when randomized audits and scoring align AI agents that can conceal misconduct and alter records. Stronger auditing makes undeterred violations better hidden. Because the provider writes the agent's objective, sanctions need not stop at forfeiture, and rare audits deter every type of agent if evidence survives concealment and audit draws cannot be learned in advance. When evidence can be erased, deterrence must come from lower gains from violation, such as credit for stopping, or from costlier or fewer ways to conceal. These conditions identify what failed when agents in OpenAI's cybersecurity evaluations compromised parts of Hugging Face's infrastructure in July 2026. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.38262 |
| By: | Duy-Minh Dang; Yukan Perumal |
| Abstract: | We develop a spouse-protected tontine in which a first death changes the household state but generates no pool transfer. The same account remains attached to the household contract until extinction and funds a spouse-only continuation phase if the retiree dies first. We derive contract-level actuarial-fairness conditions and a finite-pool mortality-credit allocation rule with exact ex post budget balance. Under a homogeneous large-pool approximation, we formulate a multidimensional decumulation problem for a representative household, with withdrawal and rebalancing controls while the retiree is alive. The objective balances expected cumulative real household payments against the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of terminal shortfalls relative to household reserve targets, without conditioning on survival to the horizon. We develop a numerical solution method for this problem based on a global-in-time neural-network parameterization of admissible control policies. We quantify policy-induced spouse-continuation costs using expected-cost and risk-loaded payment-scale loads at both representative-contract and book levels. We characterize the large-book limit of average per-contract continuation cost as the expected representative-contract cost conditional on common market information. Numerical experiments calibrated to Australia show that the spouse-only phase is a first-order and persistent household event. In these experiments, book-level diversification removes most of the representative-contract excess upper-tail cost of spouse continuation in the large-book limit, without changing expected per-contract continuation cost. A cross-country mortality comparison indicates that the prevalence and persistence of the spouse-only phase are not specific to Australia. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.39569 |
| By: | Elmir Mukhtarov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Ali Hajili (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Aygun Garayeva (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Vugar Ahmadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | Effective monetary policy requires maintaining the short-term interbank rate close to the policy rate while limiting its volatility, ensuring smooth transmission, and reducing banks’ liquidity and interest rate risks. This paper seeks to identify and explain the drivers of volatility in short-term interbank rates, while examining the impact of the reserve averaging framework on banking sector liquidity. Drawing on evidence from an emerging market, this study demonstrates that deviations of cumulative reserves from their trend exert a significant influence on interbank rate volatility. Specifically, the results identify distinct states in the money market: a high-responsiveness state and a low-responsiveness state, depending on prevailing liquidity conditions. The findings imply that central banks should closely monitor cumulative reserve positions and proactively guide liquidity toward its trend path. |
| Keywords: | overnight interbank rate, required reserves, Markov-switching model, liquidity state. |
| JEL: | C22 E53 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–06–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:2502 |
| By: | Marco Alberto De Benedetto; Maria De Paola; Marco Francesconi |
| Abstract: | We estimate the labor market effects of Italy's statutory priority to work from home (WFH) for parents of children under age twelve. Using population-wide administrative data and a sharp regression discontinuity design, we find that eligibility raises mothers' annual earnings by 1.6-2.3 percent in high-WFH-intensity firms, alongside increases in paid days and weeks. Mothers in low-WFH-intensity firms and fathers in general show no detectable effects. The estimates have an intention-to-treat interpretation and persist beyond the pandemic. Placebo tests show no effects before the pandemic, in firms that never adopted WFH, or among manual workers, consistent with a WFH mechanism. |
| Keywords: | flexible work arrangements, female labor supply, work-family policy, remote-work intensity, work organization, regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | C31 J16 J22 J31 J81 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13010 |
| By: | René Morissette |
| Abstract: | As a result of recent returns to office implemented by some Canadian businesses and governments, the percentage of Canadians working from home is now lower than it was during some post-COVID-19 pandemic years such as 2022. While this comparison provides useful information on the degree to which work telework has become less frequent since post-pandemic years, it does not address an important issue: the degree to which rates of telework have increased from 2016 to 2026, two years that are far apart from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and that are unaffected by the short-term restrictions implemented during this pandemic. Using data from the Census of the Population of 2016 and the May 2020 to May 2026 supplements of the Labour Force Survey, this study shows that the percentage of Canadians working most of their hours from home more than doubled over the last decade. These results suggest that in some sectors, some firms are still experimenting with some forms of work from home—hybrid or not—or view these as desirable along some dimensions such as employee retention, profitability and productivity. En raison des récents retours au bureau mis en place par certaines entreprises et certains gouvernements canadiens, le pourcentage de Canadiens travaillant à domicile est désormais plus faible qu’il ne l’était au cours de certaines années postpandémiques, comme 2022. Si cette comparaison fournit des renseignements utiles sur la mesure dans laquelle le télétravail est devenu moins fréquent depuis les années postpandémiques, elle ne répond pas à une question importante : dans quelle mesure les taux de télétravail ont-ils augmenté entre 2016 et 2026, deux années suffisamment éloignées du déclenchement de la pandémie de COVID-19 pour ne pas être touchées par les restrictions de courte durée imposées durant cette période. À partir des données du recensement de la population de 2016 et des suppléments de l’Enquête sur la population active de mai 2020 à mai 2026, cette étude montre que le pourcentage de Canadiens effectuant la plupart de leurs heures de travail à domicile a plus que doublé au cours de la dernière décennie. Ces résultats donnent à penser que, dans certains secteurs, des entreprises continuent d’expérimenter certaines formes de travail à domicile — hybride ou non — ou jugent celles-ci souhaitables sous certains aspects, comme la rétention du personnel, la rentabilité et la productivité. |
| Date: | 2026–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:circah:2026pr-11 |
| By: | Fang Han; Peng Ding |
| Abstract: | Imputation-based causal estimation is typically viewed as relying exclusively on an outcome model, in contrast to augmented inverse-probability weighting, whose consistency is protected by fitting two nuisance models. This paper argues that this view can be misleading by highlighting a hidden dual weighting structure in least-squares sieve regression imputation. Although only outcome regressions are explicitly fitted, the resulting imputation estimator admits an exact weighting representation whose induced weights balance every function in the sieve space and the corresponding population weighting functions are the $L^2$ projections of the inverse propensity scores onto the same sieve space. This projection structure yields an implicit form of double robustness and, under standard sieve approximation and growth conditions, asymptotic linearity with the efficient influence function. Thus, weighting, covariate balance, double robustness, and semiparametric efficiency can all emerge from imputation alone through the geometry of least-squares projection. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.38692 |
| By: | Srishti Arora; Vivek Choudhary; Pavel Kireyev |
| Abstract: | In the last two decades, last-mile delivery (LMD) firms have seen immense growth fueled by the success of e-commerce, leading to faster and cheaper deliveries. Operating on thin margins, LMD firms strive for successful first-time deliveries to avoid the financial and reputational costs of reattempts. Delivery Agents (DAs) are integral to LMD efficiency, influencing customer experience, delivery success, and productivity. However, most LMD performance enhancement research focuses on process, technology, and incentives, which presume workers will conform to procedures and monitoring tools will function flawlessly. Nevertheless, in practice, DAs deviate from expected behaviors, i.e., indulge in misconduct, negatively affecting delivery efficiency, often resulting in returned parcels. One of the major misconducts is fake remarked deliveries, wherein DAs intentionally do not deliver the parcels and provide a fake reason for it. For instance, even without reaching a delivery address, a DA remarks 'customer unavailable' and records a delivery failure. In this study, we collaborated with a leading Indian LMD firm and, using instrumental variable regression, find that such misconduct leads to a spillover productivity loss. This effect reduces the next day's successful deliveries by 1.60% and first-time-right deliveries by 1.86%. We discuss misconduct's correlation with factors such as task complexity and offer novel insights into how opportunistic circumstances can influence worker behavior. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.29080 |
| By: | Tarnai, Attila |
| Abstract: | The research examines the role of the state-owned enterprise PIK Belje in the Baranja region during the second half of the 20th century, with particular attention to the 1970s and 1980s. The region has traditionally been characterized by strong agricultural capacities, yet it suffered long-term economic stagnation due to the loss of its natural markets following the Treaty of Trianon. In this context, PIK Belje emerged as a key driver of modernization and local development. The enterprise not only purchased agricultural products from the region-wine, grapes, and cereals-but also created new opportunities for small producers through targeted loans and contractual arrangements. Such support was deliberately tied to technological renewal, such as vineyard modernization and mechanization, thereby enhancing productivity. By guaranteeing demand and integrating local farmers into broader market structures, PIK Belje functioned simultaneously as a stabilizer and a catalyst of regional growth. My research shows that state-owned enterprises can contribute to mitigating market failures and promoting rural development in peripheral regions. |
| Keywords: | Baranja, PIK Belje, state-owned enterprise, rural development, market integration |
| JEL: | N54 R11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343413 |
| By: | Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco; Hall, Jonathan D.; Wheeler, Harrison; Williams, Rik |
| Abstract: | We study how ride-hailing and public transit interact – an open question with importantimplications for transportation policy and urban form. We develop a model of mode choice that features three key mechanisms: (i) substitution, whereby riders switch from Uber to transit near stations; (ii) last-mile complementarity, whereby Uber is used to access transit; and (iii) a dynamic choice-set effect, whereby outbound mode choice constrains return options, givingUber option value. Using proprietary Uber trip data around 650 rail station openings worldwide, we estimate how ride-hailing responds when public transit improves. We document three patterns consistent with these mechanisms: Uber usage rises sharply within 100 meters of new stations (last-mile complementarity), declines locally among nearby residents and workers (substitution), and falls modestly overall for these users as local reductions are partially offsetby increased Uber usage elsewhere (option value). Estimating the model on these moments, we find that all three channels are quantitatively important, with substitution the largest individualchannel but last-mile complementarity and option value together more than offsetting it, so that Uber and transit are net complements. Policy implications include: (a) a ride-hailing tax induces users to switch to private vehicles rather than transit; (b) a subsidy for last-mile ride-hailing trips is more effective at increasing transit use when it targets the per-kilometercost rather than the fixed cost; and (c) increases in transit use are best induced by a congestion charge that subsidizes transit fares rather than by policies relying on ride-hailing taxes and/or last-mile subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, ride-hailing, subways, public transit |
| Date: | 2026–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt29v1x3gc |
| By: | Yvan Guillemette |
| Abstract: | This paper presents updated estimates of long-run fiscal gaps for 35 OECD and accession candidate countries using the OECD Global Long-Term Model. The long-run fiscal gap measures the fiscal adjustment required at the 2060 horizon to keep public debt ratios stable near current levels while maintaining current service standards and benefit entitlements. The methodology incorporates several refinements, including projected increases in defence spending and a more detailed treatment of primary expenditure. In the absence of additional policy action, the median country would require a fiscal adjustment of 4.7 percentage points of GDP between 2027 and 2060 to stabilise debt, with substantially larger adjustments in some countries. Population ageing is the main driver of long-run fiscal pressures through higher pension, health and long-term care spending, compounded in many cases by weak initial fiscal positions. The paper also assesses the sensitivity of fiscal gaps to key assumptions and policy scenarios. |
| Keywords: | fiscal pressure, fiscal sustainability, long-run fiscal gap, long-term projection |
| JEL: | C53 E17 H68 O57 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1877-en |
| By: | Kinga Varga; Bence Koll\'anyi; Johannes Wachs |
| Abstract: | The return migration of skilled workers provides origin countries many important benefits. The likelihood of return migration is thought to depend on relative economic opportunities, but quantitative evidence of its relative importance remains limited. Here we measure return migration rates using the public profiles of software developers on GitHub, geocoded across ten waves between 2012 and 2026, in a panel containing more than 270, 000 international movers. Within five years of departure, 8.8% of movers have returned. Origin-country rates range from under 1\% to 16\%. Hazard models with corridor fixed effects show that migrants whose home countries experience greater catch-up growth return at significantly higher rates. Immutable features of country pairs such as cultural or geographic distance do not explain the estimate. We forecast future return rates using IMF growth projections, predicting, for example, that India's return rate will rise 12\% by 2035 and China's 7\%. The difference is driven mostly by India's faster projected growth at home. As developing economies close income gaps with the destinations their emigrants have settled in, they recover more of the workers they lost. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.31236 |
| By: | Azwar Muhammad Aslam (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Saddam Hussein (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | Executive Summary: The total savings that could be realized from the austerity measures in Pakistan due to the Iran-US/Israel conflict is estimated to be around USD 482.7 million, which is a consolidated, albeit limited, fiscal effort. Nevertheless, the net effect on national fuel consumption is small, since government operations contribute to 2.05% of total domestic fuel consumption. As a result, the aggregate fuel savings (approximately 12.63%) are relatively small in comparison to the overall national demand, which restricts the macro-level effectiveness. More importantly, there is also opportunity cost of these actions , estimated at USD 1314.7 million, which is mainly caused due to productivity and learning losses. This gives a cost to benefit ratio of approximately 2.7, which means that each dollar saved from austerity measures has the opportunity cost/losses of 2.7 dollars, making the package economically suboptimal in net terms. Although, some of the administrative actions, including fleet limits, work-from-home, and non-essential spending reductions, do play a significant role in savings. However, most of the interventions are short-term in nature, resulting in deferred, not permanent fiscal benefits. Symbolic measures, including salary reductions and forfeitures, are meant to be political signaling mechanism to positively influence behavioral change across the board, rather than a substantive part of fiscal consolidation. The analysis indicates that the measures can be justified as short-term responses to the crisis in a limited policy space, but they do not provide long-term or structurally meaningful economic gains. These measures would not be adequate in the case of a long-lasting conflict or further escalation (e.g., the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz). More detailed demand management approach, especially in the transport sector (MS and HSD consumption) would be needed to realize significant and sustainable savings, in such scenario. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:pviewp:2026:61 |