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on Investment |
| By: | Bornukova Kateryna (European Commission - JRC); Depoortere Arne (European Commission - JRC); Leventi Chrysa (European Commission - JRC); Manso Luis (European Commission - JRC); Mazzon Alberto (European Commission - JRC); Papini Andrea |
| Abstract: | Nearly one in five people in the EU was at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2024. The European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR) set the target of lifting 15 million people out of poverty and social exclusion by 2030. In this analysis, prepared in support of the European Commission's Anti-Poverty Strategy, we use EUROMOD to simulate the individual and joint impact of minimum income reform, minimum wage increases, and employment expansion on poverty and social exclusion across all EU Member States. Using 2024 as a baseline, we construct counterfactual scenarios for 2030, and draw three main conclusions. First, a reform package combining the three instruments, the so-called implementation scenario, would surpass the EPSR target and lift 18.5 million people out of poverty and social exclusion. An acceleration scenario, extending minimum income coverage to all households in poverty, lifts 55 million and reduces income poverty to 1.5%. Second, policy interactions are sizable: the combined effect is roughly one-fourth smaller than the sum of individual instruments, primarily because employment and wage gains raise the at-risk-of-poverty threshold. Third, even after virtually eliminating income poverty, 37 million people (8.2%) remain at risk of social exclusion, driven by persistent material deprivation and low work intensity that income and employment instruments cannot fully address. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202603 |
| By: | Marc-Oliver Pohle; Tanja Zahn; Sebastian Lerch |
| Abstract: | Skill scores, which measure the relative improvement of a forecasting method over a benchmark via consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules, are a standard tool in forecast evaluation, yet their sampling uncertainty is rarely rigorously quantified. With modern forecasting applications being increasingly multivariate and involving evaluations across multiple horizons, variables, spatial locations, and forecasting methods, standard tools like the pairwise Diebold-Mariano forecast accuracy test or pointwise confidence intervals fail to account for the multiple comparison problem, leading to inflated Type I error rates and invalid joint inference. To address the lack of a coherent, statistically rigorous framework for quantifying uncertainty across these multi-dimensional evaluation problems, we introduce simultaneous confidence bands for expected scores and skill scores. Our framework provides a versatile tool for joint inference that is applicable to any forecast type from mean and quantile to full distributional forecasts. We develop a bootstrap implementation and show that our bands are valid under multivariate extensions of the classical Diebold-Mariano assumptions. We demonstrate the practical utility of the approach in two case studies by quantifying the benefits of time-varying parameter models for macroeconomic forecasting, and by comparing data-driven and physics-based models in probabilistic weather forecasting. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.03997 |
| By: | Ruimeng Hu; Mike Ludkovski; Hezhong Zhang |
| Abstract: | We develop a stochastic game-theoretic model for intraday dispatch of grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESSs). We assume that each BESS operator competitively manages her state-of-charge to maximize energy arbitrage revenues, driven by the endogenized electricity price that depends on the sum of the charging rates. We characterize the Nash equilibrium of the resulting finite-player linear-quadratic differential game with a shared stochastic driver, obtaining semi-explicit representations of equilibrium feedback controls and equilibrium prices both in the general heterogeneous and the simplified homogeneous BESS setting, via a system of Riccati equations. We then analyze competitive effects, including the marginal externality of additional BESS entering the market, the benefit of coordination and the corresponding market power of large operators, and supply effects from hybrid-type BESSs. We further study the asymptotic regime as the number of agents grows large. Our model provides a quantitative testbed to study the impact of decentralized BESS deployment on the grid and the resulting reduction in daily price spreads. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.01178 |
| By: | Aariya Sen (Assistant Professor (Economics), Faculty-in- Charge, Placement and Internship Cell, School of Business, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati, Assam, India- 781039) |
| Abstract: | The effectiveness of monetary policy transmission to the macroeconomy is contingent on numerous factors. Policy uncertainty is often considered a major deterrent to smooth monetary policy transmission, which inflicts the pain of frequent changes in expectations by the market players. In this study, I analyze the impact of a perceived monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) index for India, constructed based on news-paper data, on financial markets as well as on monetary policy transmission. The computed MPU index exhibits a negative correlation with the sentiment in Monetary Policy Committee minutes, where higher positive sentiment on the minutes moves along with a lower MPU. The empirical examination using wavelet transformation and spillovers showed that MPU has had significant spillovers in Indian financial markets and is widely correlated to business cycle movements. Finally, the analysis documenting the transmission to the real economy shows that a state of high uncertainty dampens monetary policy transmission and adversely affects consumer confidence, sovereign risk, investment inflows and balance of trade. The results underscore the need for effective communication from the Central Bank and the need to manage expectations in the financial markets through forward guidance, transparency, and accountability. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Monetary Policy Transmission, Financial Markets, Central Bank Communication, Sentiment Analysis, Asymmetry, Wavelet Analysis |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 G14 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2026-297 |
| By: | Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | Climate policy is increasingly reshaping the conditions under which firms participate in international markets. As some jurisdictions introduce carbon border adjustments, lifecycle emissions standards, and supply-chain traceability requirements, market access is starting to be made conditional on verifiable characteristics of production processes, such as carbon intensity, embedded emissions, and input sourcing, rather than solely on product characteristics or prices. This paper examines how these emerging climate-linked measures operate as eligibility regimes that require firms to measure, document, and verify embedded emissions and supply-chain attributes, using standardized methodologies. To clarify the economic logic of these mechanisms, the paper first makes a functional comparison with rules of origin, highlighting common features related to eligibility criteria, documentation, and supply-chain tracing. It then analyzes the European Union Batteries Regulation, which links market participation to lifecycle carbon-footprint disclosure and traceability, and the United States Inflation Reduction Act, which aimed to reshape supply chains through localization incentives and manufacturing subsidies. The paper finally examines the strategic responses available to economies outside the main standard-setting blocs, including regulatory alignment, dual compliance across regulatory regimes, and market reorientation toward less-demanding jurisdictions. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rtrade:pp_11-26 |
| By: | Judy, Andrew (University of Hamburg); Kesternich, Iris (University of Hamburg); Mathevet, Isadora (University of Hamburg); Pugnaghi Zimpelmann, Christian (University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | Partners often match on similar characteristics, such as demographics and wages, contributing to inequality between households. We study whether non-wage job amenities—an important part of compensation in the labor market that may also affect household production—play a role in marriage sorting. Using linked survey and administrative data from Germany, we infer individuals’ expected future job attributes from their jobs at the time of matching and estimate a frictionless transferable-utility model. We find positive assortative matching on lifetime earnings, part-time work potential, and schedule regularity, suggesting complementarities within households. In contrast, we find no evidence of sorting on work meaning. Counterfactual simulations show that while assortative matching increases inequality overall, sorting on non-wage amenities slightly reduces it, lowering the Gini coefficient of total compensation by 3.3 percent. |
| Keywords: | marriage market, assortative matching, non-wage amenities, household inequality |
| JEL: | D1 D31 J12 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18644 |
| By: | Febinia, Clarissa Asha (University of Cambridge); Kusuma, Pradiptajati; Luqman, Hirzi; Lewis, Joseph; Limardi, Prisca C.; Apriyana, Isabella; Priliani, Lidwina; , Kristiawan; Sudoyo, Herawati; Malik, Safarina G. |
| Abstract: | Market access is a key factor in structuring food procurement in rural communities. For groups undergoing subsistence transition, market interactions further transform lifestyle, with direct consequences for their diet and health. The Punan of Borneo and the Orang Rimba of Sumatra in Indonesia represent traditionally hunter-gatherer groups with recent transition histories. In this study, we use a cross-sectional comparative design across these communities (7 groups; 297 participants) to examine the effects of lifestyle transitions on diet and health at the intersection of market integration and subsistence shifts. In particular, we profiled dietary composition, procurement strategies, and the consumption of sugar, cigarettes, and medicine. We then employed linear mixed-effects models to evaluate associations between these variables, transition states, demographic factors, and Body Mass Index (BMI). Results indicate that market integration variably impacts subsistence practices; specifically, it circumvents the need for food cultivation in early-transition communities and substitutes for wild game in late-transition contexts. Both market access and subsistence transition drive dietary shifts along with increased BMI. The latter process affects women more severely than men. Sugar consumption is high across all communities (68.6 g/daily on average), while cigarettes are most consumed by men in early-transition communities (93%); both have significant health implications. Considering the communities, lifestyle transition appears mediated by the interaction of forest degradation, local infrastructure, isolation, government/NGO initiatives, and market access. In sum, subsistence transitions in Indonesia likely occur within the context of and are driven by market access, influencing dietary composition with sex-specific impacts on health. |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qyn8w_v1 |
| By: | Carlos Esteban Posada; Liz Londo\~no-Sierra |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the structure and dynamics of an open market economy and its relations with the real interest rate. In this respect, the paper is situated within a broad conventional literature. However, it departs from the standard approach to the interest rate by treating it as a control variable. Even so, the analysis concludes that the two main determinants of the interest rate are the future utility discount rate and expectations regarding future multifactor productivity (labor efficiency). Furthermore, increases in such expectations lead to increases in both the interest rate and wages. These results are consistent with to those obtained with the Cass, Koopmans, Ramsey model. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.03966 |
| By: | Holden, Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Makate, Clifton (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Land rental markets are often viewed as an important mechanism for improving allocative efficiency in smallholder agriculture. A growing literature has used nationally representative household panel data, particularly the LSMS–ISA surveys, to study land rental market participation and land allocation in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the reliability of these analyses depends critically on how accurately land ownership and operational holdings and rental transactions are measured in the survey data. <p> This paper examines how measurement instability in reported land holdings affects empirical assessments of land rental markets and allocative efficiency. Using LSMS–ISA panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Uganda, we document substantial instability in reported ownership holdings across survey rounds and show that this instability is systematically correlated with land rental participation. Rental land access statistics for landless and land-poor tenants are particularly sensitive to instability in reported ownership, with strong implications for the assessment of how pro-poor land rental markets are. We also find persistent large imbalances between reported tenant and landlord activity, suggesting substantial underreporting of rented out land.<p> We then assess allocative efficiency using three complementary approaches: the Bliss–Stern benchmark relating net land leasing to owned land, dynamic models of tenant participation, and conditional rental intensity models. The results indicate that ownership measurement instability can affect estimates of allocative efficiency, but tenant-side dynamics remain informative. Overall, the findings suggest that while survey-based estimates of landlord participation may be unreliable, nationally representative panel data can still provide useful insights into land rental market functioning and underlying reasons for limited adjustment when measurement constraints are explicitly addressed. |
| Keywords: | Land rental market; allocative efficiency; data reliability policy relevance |
| JEL: | C23 Q12 Q15 |
| Date: | 2026–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2026_004 |
| By: | Meri Papavangjeli (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Joint Vienna Institute); Lorena Skufi (Bank of Albania & Metropolitan University of Tirana); Adam Gersl (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between lending standards and credit dynamics in Albania. Using a unique bank-level dataset from the Bank Lending Standards Survey, we differentiate between newly issued domestic-currency and foreign-currency loans to non-financial corporations. We construct a quantitative index of lending standards using detailed bank-level and macro-financial data. The analysis reveals that tightening internal credit criteria, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory constraints, or risk aversion, significantly reduces new business lending, weakening bank–firm relationships. In addition, we assess the role of monetary and macroprudential policies, finding that policy changes affect domestic-currency and foreign-currency credit differently, amplifying the impact of supply-side tightening. Firms face limited ability to offset these constraints through alternative lenders, reflecting low substitutability in the Albanian credit market. The effects of tightening are persistent and intensify during economic stress, yielding important implications for monetary transmission, macroprudential policy effectiveness, financial stability, and crisis resilience in small, bank-based economies. |
| Keywords: | Corporate credit growth; lending standards; credit supply shocks; bank lending behavior; firm financing |
| JEL: | E44 G21 G32 C33 E51 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2026_05 |
| By: | Alain Dudoit; Tony Labillois; Anne-Marie Hubert |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that Canada has reached a tipping point in the evolution of its digital governance: the conditions are now in place to move from sectoral intergovernmental cooperation toward a coordinated capacity for action based on public data interoperability and the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Building on the precedent set by the 2025 federal—provincial—territorial (FPT) cybersecurity agreement concluded in Kananaskis, the analysis shows that securing systems is only a first step. The full value of digital investments now depends on governments’ ability to enable the secure, governed, and targeted circulation of data across jurisdictions. In this context, interoperability should not be understood as a technical issue, but as a strategic infrastructure shaping economic performance, public service delivery, and the public sector capacity to anticipate and act. The paper identifies a structural constraint: despite ambitious strategies and concrete AI use cases, the fragmentation of public data systems limits potential gains and prevents the emergence of systems-wide effects. This fragmentation reflects not a technological deficit, but an institutional and governance gap, particularly in terms of trust mechanisms at the FPT level. Drawing on international experience, particularly from the European Union and Australia, the paper demonstrates the feasibility of a federated model based on shared standards , joint governance mechanisms, and targeted mutualization of capabilities, without centralizing data. On this basis, it introduces a prototype FPT framework agreement designed as an operational foundation for intergovernmental negotiation. The proposal combines guiding principles, governance architecture, technical and legal instruments, and a phased implementation approach. It seeks to reconcile jurisdictional autonomy with collective capacity, notably through mechanisms such as interoperability assessments, regulatory sandboxes, and structured sectoral data-sharing agreements. The paper concludes that Canada does not face a diagnostic gap, but a coordination imperative. In a global environment shaped by technological dependencies and the growing centrality of data, the ability to organize public data as a federated interoperable architecture is becoming a key determinant of sovereignty, resilience, and long-term prosperity. Cet article soutient que le Canada se trouve à un point de bascule dans l’évolution de sa gouvernance numérique : les conditions sont désormais réunies pour passer d’une coopération intergouvernementale sectorielle à une capacité d’action coordonnée fondée sur l’interopérabilité des données publiques et l’adoption responsable de l’intelligence artificielle (IA). S’appuyant sur le précédent structurant de l’accord fédéral–provincial–territorial (FPT) sur la cybersécurité conclu à Kananaskis en 2025, l’analyse montre que la protection des systèmes ne constitue qu’une première étape. La pleine valeur des investissements numériques dépend de la capacité des gouvernements à permettre une circulation sécurisée, gouvernée et ciblée des données entre juridictions. Dans ce contexte, l’interopérabilité n’apparaît pas comme un enjeu technique, mais comme une infrastructure stratégique conditionnant la performance économique, la qualité des services publics et la capacité d’anticipation du secteur public. L’article met en évidence une contrainte structurelle : malgré l’existence de stratégies ambitieuses et de cas d’usage concrets en matière d’IA, la fragmentation des systèmes de données limite les gains potentiels et empêche l’émergence d’effets systémiques. Cette fragmentation constitue moins un déficit technologique qu’un déficit d’architecture institutionnelle et de mécanismes de confiance à l’échelle FPT. À partir d’une analyse comparative d’expériences internationales, notamment en Europe et en Australie, l’article démontre la faisabilité d’un modèle fédéré reposant sur des normes communes, des mécanismes de gouvernance partagée et une mutualisation ciblée des capacités, sans centralisation des données. Sur cette base, il propose un prototype d’accord-cadre FPT conçu comme une base opérationnelle de concertation intergouvernementale. Cet avant-projet articule des principes structurants, une architecture de gouvernance, des instruments techniques et juridiques, ainsi que des mécanismes de mise en œuvre progressive. Il vise à concilier autonomie des juridictions et capacité d’action collective, en introduisant des dispositifs tels que l’évaluation de l’interopérabilité, les bacs à sable et des accords sectoriels d’échange de données encadrés. L’article conclut que le Canada ne fait pas face à un déficit de diagnostic, mais à un impératif de mise en cohérence. Dans un environnement international marqué par la montée des dépendances technologiques et la centralité des données, la capacité à organiser ces dernières comme une architecture fédéréeinteropérable devient un déterminant stratégique de souveraineté, de résilience et de prospérité. |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:circah:2026pr-06 |
| By: | Garrett Golding; Reid Taylor |
| Abstract: | Many Texas residents remain skeptical about the reliability of the electric grid since massive dayslong outages in February 2021. Notably, the power supply situation has since improved, with capacity added over the past two years, primarily from solar and a tripling of battery storage capacity. |
| Keywords: | batteries; electricity; energy; solar; Texas |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102075 |
| By: | Jacob Arendt; Anders Holm |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of private school attendance on segregation and student achievement in compulsory school in Denmark. We show that increased private school attendance is driven by students from high socio-economic groups. Leveraging variation across municipalities, grade and calendar years and instrumental variables based on private school openings, we find that higher private school enrollment is associated with higher segregation of disadvantaged children. From event study models of the private school openings and a mover design that controls for student parental background, peer parental background, past achievement and non-cognitive scores, we find small achievement effects of private school attendance. |
| Keywords: | Private schools; socio-economic and ethnic segregation; student achievement |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J15 R28 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26133 |
| By: | Qian, Yuting (Yale University); Li, Fan (Yale University); Chen, Xi (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Racial and ethnic minorities are substantially less likely to receive timely dementia diagnoses, yet the factors underlying these gaps remain poorly quantified. Using nationally representative Health and Retirement Study data linked to Medicare claims and National Neighborhood Data Archive, we examine racial and ethnic disparities in timely dementia diagnosis among U.S. older adults and decompose these gaps using causal mediation analysis. Controlling for demographics and health conditions, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic individuals are less likely than non-Hispanic White individuals to receive a timely diagnosis. Educational attainment is the dominant mediator, explaining 48% of the Black–White disparity and 62% of the Hispanic–White disparity, followed by neighborhood affluence (27% and 18%, respectively) and the density of non-physician health practitioner offices (16% and 15%) and physician offices (10% and 12%). Dementia specialist evaluation accounts for a further 7% and 6%, respectively. These findings identify education and neighborhood healthcare infrastructure as the primary structural determinants of racial and ethnic gaps in dementia detection, pointing to targeted policy interventions to advance diagnostic equity. |
| Keywords: | timely dementia diagnosis, disparities, education, neighborhood socioeconomic factors, health care access |
| JEL: | I14 J15 J14 I11 I18 C35 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18619 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | El gobierno abierto se considera un enfoque de gobernanza colaborativa que articula iniciativas de transparencia, rendición de cuentas, participación ciudadana y colaboración de diversos actores para la coproducción de valor público. Sus principios constituyen la matriz que articula el proceso de gestión pública en su conjunto, desde el diseño de políticas, programas y proyectos públicos hasta su implementación y evaluación. Este enfoque complementa los esfuerzos realizados en la región para fortalecer los mecanismos e instrumentos de gestión pública, al ofrecer herramientas colaborativas y de conocimiento colectivo que permiten mejorar la calidad de vida de las personas. Esta guía pone a disposición de las instituciones del Estado y de todos los actores de la sociedad información sobre los pasos a seguir para formular iniciativas de gestión pública con una cultura de gobernanza abierta y colaborativa. |
| Date: | 2025–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col093:81509 |
| By: | Teresa C. Fort; Nathan Goldschlag; Jack Liang; Peter K. Schott; Nikolas Zolas |
| Abstract: | Relatively flat US productivity growth versus rising R&D expenditures is often interpreted as evidence that ideas are getting harder to find. We build a new 45-year panel tracking the universe of US firms' patenting to investigate the micro underpinnings of this conclusion, separately examining the relationships between research inputs and ideas (patents) versus ideas and growth. We find that average patents per R&D input are increasing, the elasticity of patents to R&D inputs is flat or rising, and there is not systematic evidence of a secular decline in patenting after controlling for research inputs. We then document a positive, significant, and fairly steady relationship between firms' patent and labor productivity growth rates. Average firm growth after controlling for patent growth, however, declines. Together, these results suggest that firms' innovative efforts play a key role in sustaining growth that has not diminished over the last four decades. |
| JEL: | E0 O36 O40 O41 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35182 |
| By: | Philip Moreira Tomei; Bouke Klein Teeselink |
| Abstract: | Which jobs can AI learn to do? We examine this for every occupation in the US economy. Existing indices measure the overlap between AI capabilities and occupational tasks rather than which tasks AI systems can learn to perform, and as a result misclassify occupations where the gap between present capability and learnability is large. Reinforcement learning in post-training, now the dominant paradigm at the frontier, is structured around task completion and maps more directly onto the task-based architecture of occupational classifications than prior approaches. Using LLM annotators guided by a rubric developed with RL experts and validated against confirmed deployment cases, we score all 17, 951 ONET tasks for training feasibility and aggregate to the occupation level, producing an RL Feasibility Index. The index diverges sharply from existing AI exposure measures for specific occupation groups: power plant operators, railroad conductors, and aircraft cargo handling supervisors score high on RL feasibility but low on general AI exposure, while creative and interpersonal roles (musicians, physicians, natural sciences managers) show the reverse. These divergences carry direct implications for policy interventions. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.02598 |
| By: | Daniel Andrew Coulson; David S. Matteson; Martin T. Wells |
| Abstract: | Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional difficulty is summarizing the estimated evolving dependence structure for downstream decision-making tasks. We propose a Bayesian approach based on a low-rank factor representation, with latent states evolving under a dynamic shrinkage prior and observation errors following a multivariate factor stochastic volatility model. This specification allows locally adaptive regularization of the estimated correlation structure over time and informative uncertainty quantification. We establish, to our knowledge, a first-of-its-kind posterior contraction result for dynamically regularized Bayesian models, showing contraction around the true model parameters at an explicit rate under averaged Hellinger distance. To summarize the estimated correlation matrices, we build on the information-theoretic concept of total correlation to obtain a scalar measure of cross-sectional dependence. Simulation studies show improved accuracy and responsiveness relative to competing methods in a range of challenging scenarios. We then apply our method to monitoring the correlation evolution of equity portfolios during periods of financial market stress, providing an ex post framework for assessing the changing benefits of diversification in backtesting analyses. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.06818 |
| By: | N R Bhanumurthy (Director and Professor (Economics), Madras School of Economics); Bhabesh Hazarika (Economist, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi.); Aritri Chakravarty (Assistant Professor, Madras School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper relooks at the present Gender Budgeting framework in India. After two decades of implementing Gender Budgeting in India, this paper argues for relooking at the existing framework. With the help of an analytical framework the paper suggests that there is a need for Input-Output-Outcome framework that links fiscal outlays to gender gaps. It suggests that with the current framework strongly establishing institutional foundation through a well-defined Gender Budget Statement, Gender Budget Cells, and sustained political recognition of gender inequality as a fiscal and developmental concern, there is a need to make the whole gender budgeting process a dynamic one with feedback loop from gender gaps. The paper also provides empirical support with the help of a survey on Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana- Grameen (PMAY-G) beneficiaries and argues that the outcomes of the schemes that are included in the gender budgeting is at best an output from the gender inequality perspective. Further the paper argues that allocations under gender budget statement is at best a necessary but not a sufficient intervention to address gender gaps. There is a need for complimentary policy interventions to improve gender outcomes. Some of the complimentary policies that are suggested in this study, based on a primary survey, are providing skills, improving financial access as well as policies that improve mobility. At the end the paper suggests three pathways through which the whole gender budgeting framework could be made effective. |
| Keywords: | Gender Budgeting, Gender Gaps, PMAY-G, India |
| JEL: | H00 J16 H61 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2026-298 |
| By: | Christian Moser; Farzad Saidi; Benjamin Wirth; Stefanie Wolter |
| Abstract: | We study the distributional consequences of monetary policy-induced credit supply in the German labor market. Firms in relationships with banks that are more exposed to the introduction of negative interest rates in 2014 experience a relative contraction in credit supply, associated with lower average wages. Within firms, initially lower-paid workers are more likely to leave employment, while initially higher-paid workers see a relative decline in wages. Between firms, wages fall by more at initially higher-paying employers. Our results suggest that credit affects the distribution of wages and employment both within and between firms. |
| Keywords: | wages, employment, distribution, credit supply, monetary policy, downward wage rigidity |
| JEL: | J31 E24 J23 E51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12656 |
| By: | Yosuke Fukunishi (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Haorong Qiu (Formerly Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Akihiko Takahashi (School of Interdisciplinary Mathematical Sciences/Graduate School of Advanced Mathematical Sciences, Meiji University) |
| Abstract: | Modeling the probability distribution of stock returns is a fundamental challenge in quantitative finance, with significant implications for risk management, derivative pricing, and portfolio optimization. This paper proposes a diffusion-based generative framework tailored to the statistical characteristics of financial return distributions. By incorporating learned reverse-process variance, velocity parameterization, and a sigmoid noise schedule, the proposed model aims to improve distributional fidelity, particularly in the tails. The framework is further extended to regime-conditional generation, enabling controlled simulation of distinct market states. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms classical parametric models such as Geometric Brownian Motion and GARCH, deep generative baselines like VAEs, and existing diffusion-based methods across multiple distributional metrics, including higher-order moments and tail behaviors. The results highlight the potential of diffusion models as robust tools for synthetic return generation and scenario analysis in finance. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf627 |
| By: | Joacim Tåg; Fredrik Heyman; Malin Gardberg; Martin Olsson |
| Abstract: | We examine how gender-based occupational sorting before the release of ChatGPT relates to predicted exposure to generative AI and its potential implications for the gender wage gap. Using Swedish administrative data, we find that women are overrepresented in occupations predicted to be more affected by generative AI. Mechanical partial-equilibrium simulations, based on hypothesized deviations from the 2021 occupational and wage distribution and incorporating predicted AI exposure and task complementarity, show that generative AI can widen the gender wage gap through existing patterns of gender-based occupational sorting. |
| Keywords: | Generative AI, gender wage gap, technological change, occupational sorting, complementarity |
| JEL: | J16 J31 O33 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26118 |
| By: | Zeqin Liu (School of Statistics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, China); Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Ying Fang (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China and Department of Statistics & Data Science, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China) |
| Abstract: | Expectation management is a critical yet challenging task for central banks, particularly within the Chinese context of dual-track regulation and multi-objective constraints. This paper investigates the transmission efficacy of the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) forward guidance by proposing an LLM-powered analytical framework. First, we employ adaptive semantic segmentation to partition communication texts based on genuine meaning shifts. Second, we apply tense-by-topic tagging to precisely separate forward-looking signals from retrospective ones and isolate monetary policy stances from macroeconomic assessments and other auxiliary themes. Third, we further decompose these forward-looking policy stance units into granular signals regarding overall tone, quantity tools, price tools, and targeted objectives, and subsequently classify these signals as accommodative, neutral, or tight. Based on this granular data, we construct three specialized indices: forward-looking net policy intention (NPSf), quantity-price signal divergence (QPSD), and multi-objective communication dispersion (MDI). Controlling for actual policy operations and macroeconomic variables, we employ local projections to identify the dynamic effects and friction mechanisms of expectation management. Empirical results reveal that forward-looking monetary policy communication is the cornerstone of expectation management, whereas retrospective statements have been fully priced in by the market. Specifically, the credit channel functions effectively; forward-looking intentions drive substantive adjustments in credit growth, real financing costs, and risk premiums. Conversely, transmission through interest rate expectations and asset price channels remains limited. Further analysis demonstrates that price-quantity signal divergence systematically weakens transmission across all channels. Moreover, multi-objective communication triggers an overshooting response in both short-term money market benchmarks and credit risk premiums, while objectively dampening the pricing sensitivity of equity assets. We suggest that central bank expectation management should prioritize strengthening forward-looking path guidance, supported by highly coordinated price-quantity signals and clearly defined dominant objectives, to enhance policy efficacy. |
| Keywords: | Expectation Management; Large Language Models; Forward Guidance; Dual-Track Monetary Policy; Multiple Policy Objectives; Local Projections |
| JEL: | E52 G12 C55 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202613 |
| By: | Wojdan Omran (Queen's Business School); Shumaila Yousafzai (Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Business) |
| Abstract: | This study advances a decolonial understanding of women's entrepreneurship in the Global South by synthesizing how women entrepreneurs resist and navigate patriarchal constraints through infrapolitical strategies. It introduces infrapolitics as a critical lens to theorize subtle, informal, and contextually embedded acts of resistance that often remain overlooked in mainstream entrepreneurship literature. |
| Keywords: | Infrapolitics, Strategic disobedience, Quiet activism, Women entrepreneurs, Palestine, Patriarchy, Bricolage, Islamic feminism, Global South, Systematic Literature Review, Decolonial theory |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asx:nugsbw:2025-11 |
| By: | Daiwei Chen; Pierre-Alexandre Balland |
| Abstract: | China’s high-speed rail (HSR) network, initiated in 2008, now covers nearly all regionsof the country. This paper analyzes the effect of HSR connection on inter-city scientific collaboration and examines whether this e!ect varies systematically with the complexity of scientific fields. Combining the universe of HSR openings between 2008 and 2020 with OpenAlex publication records, we construct a panel spanning 33, 793 Chinese city pairs. Using a staggered difference-in-differences estimator, we find that HSR increases co-publications among city-pairs with existing collaborative ties by 35.2 percent at the city-pair level. Disaggregating across twenty scientific fields, we show that this effect is quite heterogeneous. Field-level treatment e!ects range from 19.8 to 45.1 percent, and their magnitude is positively and significantly correlated with average team size -a proxy of the fields’ complexity. These results are consistent with the view that face-to-face interaction is still important for knowledge production requiring deep divisions of cognitive labour, and they carry direct implications for the design of transportation and innovation policy. |
| Keywords: | High-Speed Rail (HSR), Scientific Collaboration, Knowledge Complexity, Face-to-Face Interaction |
| JEL: | O33 O38 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2605 |
| By: | Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy |
| Abstract: | In 2016, Auckland, New Zealand upzoned approximately three-quarters of its residential land, allowing medium and high density housing to be built in areas previously zoned for low density. Permits for the construction of new dwellings subsequently reached record highs. We use a synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of this widespread zoning reform on housing starts. The synthetic control provides an estimate of outcomes under the counterfactual of no zoning reform and implies that the upzoning approximately doubled new dwelling permits per capita within five years of the reform becoming operational. Seven years on from the reform, cumulative permits issued exceed those of the synthetic control by approximately 52, 200, forty-six percent of the 112, 300 permits issued over this period. These findings suggest that zoning reform can be used to redress housing shortages in other jurisdictions. |
| Keywords: | Upzoning; Land Use Regulations; Redevelopment; Housing Starts; Synthetic Controls |
| JEL: | R14 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cyc:wpaper:017 |
| By: | Kilgarrif, Kilgarriff (Central Bank of Ireland); Adhikari, Tamanna (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Cumulative risk over a 30-year mortgage is substantial: Households with a high likelihood of flooding (a 10% annual probability) face a 96% cumulative probability of experiencing at least one flood event over the term of the mortgage. Flood exposure will intensify under future climate scenarios: Under a future climate scenario (mid-range future scenario), the number of households in high-likelihood flood zones rises by about 50%: from ~50, 000 today to ~78, 000 by 2100. This 78, 000 represents ~4% of total households in Ireland. Long-term mortgage exposure is significant: Between 6, 450 and 36, 700 mortgaged households (1.2% to 6.9% of all mortgaged households) are located in high-likelihood flood zones. Geographic concentration varies widely: Just five counties (Clare, Louth, Cork, Limerick and Dublin) account for 70% of the estimated total number of households exposed to high likelihood flooding. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:stafin:4/si/26 |
| By: | Andres, Dionysios (TruthShield) |
| Abstract: | A recent integrative review identified the Visibility Gap as the structural discrepancy between the epistemic quality of counter-speech and its algorithmic competitiveness in platformised information environments. This article addresses the gap through design science research. Drawing on the Bystander Effect (Latané and Darley, 1970), social proof theory (Traberg, 2025), Population Intelligence (Tatham, 2015), the chronos/kairos distinction (Miller, 1994), the regulatory-theoretical diagnosis of the Public Discourse Paradox (Bassan, 2024, 2025), and cognitive warfare theory (Rushing et al., 2026), I derive five design principles for counterïspeech that combines verification capacity with algorithmic reach: platform-nativity, comïmunicative plurality, temporal competitiveness, epistemic integrity under optimisation, and transparent automation. I present an artifact instantiating these principles through a fourïlayer architecture integrating automated detection, persona-based intervention, embedded micro-inoculation, and adaptive evaluation. The artifact uses Thompson Sampling to opïtimise communicative delivery while structurally excluding factual content from the optiïmisation space. Evaluation through expert review and computational simulation supports the theoretical coherence of the design, provides preliminary evidence that the immutable constraint architecture resists reward poisoning under controlled conditions, and identifies persona authenticity and the tension between temporal competitiveness and human oversight as primary risks for field deployment. The central finding is that verification capacity and algorithmic reach, while analytically independent, are operationally coupled: achieving algoïrithmic competitiveness imposes constraints that interact with verification standards. The article contributes to scholarship on counter-speech, platform governance, and information disorder by demonstrating that the Visibility Gap is a design deficit rather than a knowledge deficit, and that principled design within a regulatory frame that legal-theoretical analysis has independently diagnosed can address it. |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:37bvc_v1 |