|
on Investment |
| By: | Ihsaan Bassier; Joshua Budlender |
| Abstract: | When firm productivity or product demand rises, workers typically share in the gains through higher wages or expanded employment. We show that for firms under monopsony with a binding minimum wage, this link from firm gains to worker outcomes breaks sharply. Revenue-productivity improvements raise revenues but not wages or employment: firms simply maintain the minimum wage and absorb the gains into higher wage markdowns. We find compelling evidence for these predictions using South African administrative data, based on a cross-sectional kink design as well as within-firm responses to internal and shift-share trade shocks. These results reveal a previously overlooked monopsonistic margin - productivity -induced markdown adjustment - and we show using a structural model that this substantially diminishes the intended returns of policies such as employment subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Monopsony, Rent-sharing, Minimum wage, Firm productivity |
| Date: | 2025–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2134 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | I develop a continuous functional framework for spatial treatment effects grounded in Navier-Stokes partial differential equations. Rather than discrete treatment parameters, the framework characterizes treatment intensity as continuous functions $\tau(\mathbf{x}, t)$ over space-time, enabling rigorous analysis of boundary evolution, spatial gradients, and cumulative exposure. Empirical validation using 32, 520 U.S. ZIP codes demonstrates exponential spatial decay for healthcare access ($\kappa = 0.002837$ per km, $R^2 = 0.0129$) with detectable boundaries at 37.1 km. The framework successfully diagnoses when scope conditions hold: positive decay parameters validate diffusion assumptions near hospitals, while negative parameters correctly signal urban confounding effects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals 2-13 $\times$ stronger distance effects for elderly populations and substantial education gradients. Model selection strongly favors logarithmic decay over exponential ($\Delta \text{AIC} > 10, 000$), representing a middle ground between exponential and power-law decay. Applications span environmental economics, banking, and healthcare policy. The continuous functional framework provides predictive capability ($d^*(t) = \xi^* \sqrt{t}$), parameter sensitivity ($\partial d^*/\partial \nu$), and diagnostic tests unavailable in traditional difference-in-differences approaches. |
| Keywords: | Spatial treatment effects, continuous functionals, Navier-Stokes equations, healthcare access, spatial boundaries, heterogeneous treatment effects |
| JEL: | C14 C21 C31 I14 R12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126727 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | Spatial econometrics lacks principled methods for measuring minimum wage spillovers. Existing approaches assume arbitrary functional forms without theoretical justification, preventing researchers from answering basic questions: How far do effects reach? Through which channels? At what speed? This paper derives spatial treatment effects from first principles using Navier-Stokes equations. Three theoretical predictions emerge and are validated empirically. First, treatment boundaries exhibit self-similar scaling, growing proportional to the square root of elapsed time as predicted by diffusion theory (estimated exponent: 0.500, standard error: 0.001). Second, spatial weights follow Modified Bessel K-zero functions, the exact Green's function solution to the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation. This theoretically-derived specification fits observed spillover patterns substantially better than exponential, Gaussian, or power-law alternatives commonly assumed in applied work (R-squared: 0.99 versus 0.35). Third, network consolidation paradoxically increases rather than dampens wage volatility during stress periods, with consolidation-volatility correlation rising from near-zero to positive 0.0067 following COVID-19. Using 64, 421 county-quarter observations from 2018 to 2023, I estimate characteristic spillover distance of 100 miles with cumulative effects reaching 0.44 log points over four quarters. Economic network linkages dominate geographic proximity by factor of eight, demonstrating that institutional connections matter more than physical distance. Spatial decay parameters increased 27 percent during COVID-19 (from 0.0155 to 0.0196), shrinking effective spillover radius from 65 to 51 miles and confirming time-varying dynamics predicted by perturbation theory. The framework provides concrete policy guidance. Regional minimum wage coordination should encompass 100-mile radius under normal conditions, contracting to 65 miles during crises. For Japan's minimum wage reform targeting 1, 500 yen per hour by 2030, spillovers from Tokyo will substantially affect surrounding prefectures within 160 kilometers. Self-similar scaling implies effects reach half of final magnitude within one year but continue expanding indefinitely, requiring multi-year coordination frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Spatial wage spillovers, Self-similar scaling, Network fragility, Modified Bessel functions, Minimum wage policy, Japan |
| JEL: | C21 D85 J31 J38 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126722 |
| By: | Eleonora Brandimarti |
| Abstract: | Higher education often requires choosing a bachelor's and a master's degree, yet the returns of these combined choices and the role of courses in different disciplines remain understudied. This paper addresses this gap using detailed data on Italian graduates and university programs. I study the labor market returns to combinations of bachelor's and master's degrees and investigate how curriculum characteristics affect outcomes. I exploit exogenous variation in access to bachelor's and master's degrees to causally estimate the returns to 43 combinations of degrees. I organize the data in a nested model with exogenous variation in admission requirements and explore the preference profile of the sample through policy simulations that shift these requirements. I then relate the estimated returns to the academic curriculum of degrees, focusing on the role of quantitative education and timing of courses. I contribute to the literature on returns to advanced degrees by incorporating master's degrees in the discussion on how higher education affects outcomes and providing evidence on the characteristics of curricula that are positively related to labor market returns. The findings reveal substantial variation in returns to degree combinations, even among combinations with the same bachelor's degree, indicating the need to consider both types of programs. Combinations of degrees in different disciplines positively impact economic outcomes, while those in the same field perform worse. Successful combinations feature more non-quantitative education in the bachelor's, and quantitative courses alone do not explain higher returns. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.09260 |
| By: | Ga\"etan Caillaut; Raheel Qader; Jingshu Liu; Mariam Nakhl\'e; Arezki Sadoune; Massinissa Ahmim; Jean-Gabriel Barthelemy |
| Abstract: | The financial industry's growing demand for advanced natural language processing (NLP) capabilities has highlighted the limitations of generalist large language models (LLMs) in handling domain-specific financial tasks. To address this gap, we introduce the LLM Pro Finance Suite, a collection of five instruction-tuned LLMs (ranging from 8B to 70B parameters) specifically designed for financial applications. Our approach focuses on enhancing generalist instruction-tuned models, leveraging their existing strengths in instruction following, reasoning, and toxicity control, while fine-tuning them on a curated, high-quality financial corpus comprising over 50% finance-related data in English, French, and German. We evaluate the LLM Pro Finance Suite on a comprehensive financial benchmark suite, demonstrating consistent improvement over state-of-the-art baselines in finance-oriented tasks and financial translation. Notably, our models maintain the strong general-domain capabilities of their base models, ensuring reliable performance across non-specialized tasks. This dual proficiency, enhanced financial expertise without compromise on general abilities, makes the LLM Pro Finance Suite an ideal drop-in replacement for existing LLMs in financial workflows, offering improved domain-specific performance while preserving overall versatility. We publicly release two 8B-parameters models to foster future research and development in financial NLP applications: https://huggingface.co/collections/Drago nLLM/llm-open-finance. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.08621 |
| By: | Dominik Hecker; Maik Wolters; Maik H. Wolters |
| Abstract: | We estimate a New Keynesian model that allows endogenous transitions between a target equilibrium, with inflation fluctuating around the central bank’s target and interest rates typically positive, and a low-inflation equilibrium, where the effective lower bound binds and de-anchored expectations keep inflation persistently below target. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods, employing an ensemble MCMC sampler with a particle filter to handle nonlinearities. We find that the United States remained in the target equilibrium after the global financial crisis, the euro area transitioned to the low-inflation equilibrium in 2015, with the subsequent inflation surge initiating a return to the target equilibrium in 2021, and Japan entered the low-inflation equilibrium in the early 2000s. Bayes factors strongly favor the equilibrium-transition model over an alternative specification in which the lower bound binds only occasionally and expectations remain anchored. |
| Keywords: | multiple equilibria, nonlinear estimation, particle filter, deflation, zero lower bound, natural interest rate, inflation expectations |
| JEL: | C51 E31 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12280 |
| By: | Brugiavini, Agar; Di Cataldo, Marco; Romani, Giulia |
| Abstract: | The spatial concentration of knowledge-intensive activities can generate multiplicative effects at the local level. This paper examines how employment growth in knowledge-intensive and tradable sectors affects wage, days worked, and internal migration of non-tradable workers in Italy. We leverage matched employer-employee data (2005–2019) to track individuals across jobs and locations. Our empirical strategy combines a two-step estimation with a shift-share instrument to disentangle the roles of worker sorting and local spillovers. We find that knowledge sector expansion increases the number of days worked locally and attracts non-tradable workers. It also raises nominal wages, but only when sorting is not accounted for, suggesting selective inflows of more productive workers into knowledge hubs. However, rising local living costs offset nominal wage gains, leading to lower real wages. |
| Keywords: | labour demand shocks; knowledge economy; local spillovers; sorting; Italy |
| JEL: | J23 J61 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130106 |
| By: | Xavier Mesmin (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Marguerite Chartois (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Pauline Farigoule (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Christian Burban (BioGeCo - Biodiversité, Gènes & Communautés - UB - Université de Bordeaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean‐Claude Streito (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Jean-Marc Thuillier (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Éric Pierre (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Maxime Lambert (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Yannick Mellerin (BioGeCo - Biodiversité, Gènes & Communautés - UB - Université de Bordeaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Olivier Bonnard (BioGeCo - Biodiversité, Gènes & Communautés - UB - Université de Bordeaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Inge van Halder (BioGeCo - Biodiversité, Gènes & Communautés - UB - Université de Bordeaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Guillaume Fried (LSV Montpellier - Unité entomologie et plantes invasives - LSV - Laboratoire de la santé des végétaux - ANSES - Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail); Jean-Yves Rasplus (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Astrid Cruaud (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Jean-Pierre Rossi (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a xylem-limited bacterium that has been recorded in several European countries since its detection in 2013 in Apulia (Italy). Given the prominence of the wine industry in many southern European countries, a big threat is the development of Pierce's disease in grapevines. Yet, the insect-habitat and insect-plant interaction networks in which xylem feeders, possible vectors of Xf, are involved around European vineyards are largely unknown. Here we describe these networks in three key wine-growing regions of southern France (Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Occitanie, Nouvelle-Aquitaine) to identify primary xylem feeder habitats, and assess their specialization degree at the habitat, plant family, and plant species levels. A total of 92 landscapes (and 700 sites) were studied over three sampling sessions in the fall 2020, spring 2021, and fall 2021. Among the habitats sampled, meadows hosted the largest xylem feeder communities, followed by alfalfa fields. Vineyard headlands and inter-rows hosted slightly smaller xylem feeder communities, indicating that potential Xf vectors thrive near crops. Grapevines hosted few xylem feeders, suggesting rare but possible transfer to vulnerable crops. Philaenus spumarius, Aphrophora alni, Lepyronia coleoptrata, and Cicadella viridis were all similarly generalists at the habitat, plant family or plant species level. The only specialist was Aphrophora grp. salicina, which was restricted to riparian forests and to Salicaceae. Neophilaenus spp. were extremely specialist at the plant family level (Poaceae), but rather generalist at the habitat and plant species levels. All 1017 insects screened for the presence of Xf tested negative, showing that Xf is not widespread in the studied regions. Our study provides new basic ecological information on potential vectors of Xf, especially on their specialization and feeding preferences, as well as practical information that may be relevant for the design of epidemiological surveillance plans.which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05366223 |
| By: | Ricardo Alonzo Fern\'andez Salguero |
| Abstract: | This systematic review with narrative synthesis examines the social impacts of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs. We systematically searched five academic databases and grey literature following PRISMA guidelines and included 53 empirical studies that met predefined eligibility criteria. For each study we assessed risk of bias, with particular attention to how endogeneity, selection bias, and confounding were handled. Because of substantial heterogeneity in outcomes and research designs, results were synthesized narratively rather than through meta analysis. We find that a minority of studies, often using methods with higher risk of bias such as propensity score matching, report no systematic adverse social effects. By contrast, a large body of work using stronger quasi experimental designs, especially instrumental variable strategies, links IMF conditionality to higher income inequality, worse health outcomes (notably tuberculosis and child mortality), and growth of the informal economy. Overall, the best available evidence indicates that IMF programs, particularly those centered on fiscal austerity and structural reforms, impose significant social costs and that a redesign of conditionality is needed to protect social spending and advance the Sustainable Development Goals. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.08617 |
| By: | Yasmine Elkhateeb (J-PAL MENA, Faculty of Economics & Political Science, Cairo University, Egypt); Riccardo Turati (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain & IZA, Germany & RFBerlin, Germany); Jérôme Valette (CEPII, IC Migrations, France & IZA, Germany & RFBerlin, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Does immigration challenge the identities, values, and cultural diversity of receiving societies? This paper addresses this question by analyzing the impact of immigration on cultural diversity in Europe between 2004 and 2018. It combines regional cultural diversity indices derived from the European Social Survey with immigration shares from the European Labor Force Survey. The results indicate that immigration increases the salience of birthplace identity along cultural lines, fostering a shift toward nativist identities among the native population. These identity shifts, in turn, trigger a process of cultural homogenization among natives. This effect is stronger in regions receiving culturally distant immigrants. It reflects a process of convergence toward the values of highly skilled liberal natives and divergence from those of low-skilled conservative immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Social Identity, Cultural Diversity. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2517 |
| By: | Samuel Deleplanque (ACOUSTIQUE - IEMN - Acoustique - IEMN - IEMN - Institut d’Électronique, de Microélectronique et de Nanotechnologie - UMR 8520 - Centrale Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France - JUNIA - JUNIA - UCL - Université catholique de Lille, JUNIA - JUNIA - UCL - Université catholique de Lille, UCL - Université catholique de Lille); Luis Fernando Pérez Armas (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]); Stefan Creemers (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain, LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, the usefulness of quantum annealing hardware for combinatorial optimization has been the subject of active debate. Although current analog quantum machines do not guarantee optimality, operating instead as heuristic solvers, the technology is evolving rapidly. Beyond performance alone, this emerging technologies offers fundamentally new approaches to problem-solving that are not readily accessible to classical exact methods particularly in dynamic environments or online optimization settings. This paper focuses on one such approaches: Reverse Quantum Annealing (RQA). Unlike classical exact methods, RQA allows the optimization process to begin from an initial infeasible solution by embedding it directly into the qubits' initial state. We leverage this capability by formulating problem constraints as penalty terms within Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) models, thereby preserving infeasible solutions within the quantum search space. We propose iterative strategies that apply RQA in three distinct modes to rapidly repair infeasible solutions. These methods are evaluated on two well-known NP-hard problems: the Maximum Independent Set (MIS) and the 3-SAT problem. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of RQA in steering infeasible configurations toward feasibility, offering B Samuel Deleplanque |
| Keywords: | Quantum optimization, Maximum Independent Set, 3-SAT, Reverse Quantum Annealing, Reverse Quantum Annealing Quantum optimization Maximum Independent Set 3-SAT |
| Date: | 2025–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05204085 |
| By: | Yaling Qi |
| Abstract: | The availability of multidimensional economic datasets has grown significantly in recent years. An example is bilateral trade values across goods among countries, comprising three dimensions -- importing countries, exporting countries, and goods -- forming a third-order tensor time series. This paper introduces a general Bayesian tensor autoregressive framework to analyze the dynamics of large, multidimensional time series with a particular focus on international trade across different countries and sectors. Departing from the standard homoscedastic assumption in this literature, we incorporate flexible stochastic volatility into the tensor autoregressive models. The proposed models can capture time-varying volatility due to the COVID-19 pandemic and recent outbreaks of war. To address computational challenges and mitigate overfitting, we develop an efficient sampling method based on low-rank Tucker decomposition and hierarchical shrinkage priors. Additionally, we provide a factor interpretation of the model showing how the Tucker decomposition projects large-dimensional disaggregated trade flows onto global factors. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.03097 |
| By: | Stephen Lee |
| Abstract: | The US REIT market is the most mature and largest market in the world so many US investors see no reason to invest overseas. Previous research however finds that including assets from international markets offer substantial benefits to a domestic portfolio. Therefore, we examine whether international REIT can significantly increase the performance of the M2 version of the Sharpe ratio of US REITs for two reasons. First, the benefits are stated in returns, which makes easier for investors to understand. Second, Liang and McIntosh (1999) show that the overall benefit can decomposed into a diversification benefit and a return benefit, so we can identify the sources of and increase in Sharpe performance. Using daily data on 12 international REIT markets from 2/01/1990 to 31/12/2024 we make a number of conclusions. First, over the whole sample period international REITs would have significantly increased the M2 of US REITs by 3% per annum, on average, composed of a significantly positive diversification benefit (8%) reduced by a significantly negative return benefit (-5%). Second, we find that such benefits are time varying and have declined since the end of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Lastly, we find that international REITs would have significantly decreased the M2 performance of US REITs in the Sub-prime/GFC crisis of 2007-2009, and the Inflationary interest rate hike of 2022, but would have offered a significant increase to US REITs M2 performance in the COVID meltdown of 2020. This suggest that including international REITs in a US REIT portfolio needs careful consideration. |
| Keywords: | benefits; Daily data; International REITs; US REITs |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_50 |
| By: | VEUGELERS, Reinhilde (Directorate-General for Research and Innovation) |
| Abstract: | This report proposes a framework on how to collect evidence on the use of directionality in national R&I systems in the EU. It adopts a dual approach: a macro perspective using publicly available datasets, and a micro-level approach focusing on specific programs, with Flanders as an example. It finds that most of GBARD is still undirected, but there is a modest shift towards a larger share for directed GBARD. The most important areas for targeting in public R&D budgets in the EU-27 are industrial, health and space, and these are quite stable. The report also highlights the importance of combining a macro (cross country) approach with a deeper dive harmonized micro approach per country, to better identify trends in approaches to directionality and similarities and differences between countries’ approaches to directionality. |
| Keywords: | directionality, transformative research and innovation policy, R&I policy, GBARD, EU Member States |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eug:wpaper:ki-bd-24-001-en-n |
| By: | Atsuki Hirata (Bank of Japan); Yusuke Takahashi (Bank of Japan); Naoya Kato (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the interest rate sensitivity of capital investment in Japan. We first summarize recent global trends using macro-level statistics from advanced economies. Using firm-level financial survey data for Japanese firms, we then demonstrate how structural changes surrounding Japanese firms, such as the increase in intangible asset investment and overseas capital investment, affect interest rate sensitivity, employing a method called Panel LP-IV (Local Projection Instrumental Variables). The analysis yields several key findings: first, the interest rate sensitivity of capital investment has shown a declining trend in recent years globally. Second, intangible asset investment has a low interest rate sensitivity; consequently, firms with a higher proportion of intangible assets in their aggregate capital investment are less sensitive to interest rate changes compared to firms with a lower proportion. Last but not least, declining growth expectations and increasing labor shortages can additionally depress interest rate sensitivity. While firms with a higher overseas investment ratio showed a lower interest rate sensitivity for tangible asset investment domestically compared to firms with a lower overseas investment ratio, this difference is not statistically significant. |
| Keywords: | Capital investment; Interest rate sensitivity; Intangible assets; Overseas capital investment; Labor shortage; Growth expectations |
| JEL: | E22 E43 G31 |
| Date: | 2025–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp25e13 |
| By: | Georgarakos, Dimitris; Jappelli, Tullio; Kenny, Geoff; Pistaferri, Luigi |
| Abstract: | Using a large survey of euro area consumers, we conduct an experiment in which respondents report how they would adjust their labor market participation, hours worked, and job search effort (if not employed) in response to randomly assigned windfall gain scenarios. Windfall gains reduce labor supply, but only when the gains are substantial. At the extensive margin, gains of €25, 000 or less have no effects, while gains between €50, 000 and €100, 000 reduce the probability of working by 1.5 to 3.5 percentage points. At the intensive margin, small gains produce no impact, while gains above €50, 000 lead to a reduction of approximately one hour of work per week. The effects among women and workers near retirement are stronger. The share of non-employed respondents who stop or reduce job search intensity declines by 1 percentage point for each €10, 000 in windfall gain, with the strongest effects observed among older individuals receiving €100, 000. JEL Classification: E24, D10, J22, J68 |
| Keywords: | consumer expectations survey, job search, labor supply, survey experiment, wealth shocks |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253154 |
| By: | Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ioannis Gutzianas (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This study identifies the minimum economic and institutional conditions that candidate countries must meet to ensure macroeconomic stability, sustainable growth, and effective integration into the EU, under a politically accelerated enlargement process. In the area of external accounts, successful past accessions managed current account deficits through FDI into tradable sectors, while real effective exchange rate misalignments and FDI into non-tradables led to post-accession instability. Key reforms include building export capacity, targeting FDI to tradables, aligning wages with productivity, and reducing debt-financed imbalances. On fiscal policy, while fiscal discipline is essential, overly conservative approaches can hinder growth. Countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios at accession faced prolonged austerity. Reforms should focus on fiscal sustainability, growth-oriented spending, tax base expansion, and procurement transparency. Labour market challenges include depopulation, low productivity, and high poverty. Effective employment policies, migration strategies, regional equity, and education-labour market alignment are essential. Institutional quality remains a critical barrier. Weak rule of law, corruption, and governance backsliding threaten accession prospects and must be addressed before accession. The study concludes that a focused set of pre-accession ‘must haves’ can guide enlargement, supported by adapted EU tools to mitigate risks and foster convergence. |
| Keywords: | EU Enlargement, EU Accession, Candidate Countries, Ukraine, Western Balkans |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F55 P52 O52 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:102 |
| By: | Papaevangelou, Charis |
| Abstract: | With the adoption of the Digital Services Act, Digital Markets Act, Artificial Intelligence Act, and European Media Freedom Act, the EU has set in motion an ambitious regulatory project to shape the governance of digital platforms and AI systems. This paper maps the governance stakeholders involved in the operationalization of these four instruments and examines their distribution of powers and responsibilities. Building on existing typologies of platform governance and regulatory space theory, we introduce an analytical framework that foregrounds three structural elements–competencies, capacities, and connectedness–alongside eight regulatory functions, ranging from agenda-setting to enforcement and discourse shaping. We then operationalize this framework in the context of the standardization ecosystem, highlighting the growing prominence of standardization bodies as central actors in multi-stakeholderism. Our analysis shows that, despite the promises of multi-stakeholderism for more democratic and cooperative governance configurations, in practice this approach often disregards material power asymmetries. This reality privileges technocratic expertise and industry stakeholders over public-interest actors, hindering ultimately a more equitable and democratic governance paradigm. We conclude by arguing that pursuing strategic autonomy, as the EU boasts, requires reducing the regulatory power of private actors and strengthening capacities of actors normatively and materially grounded in the public interest. |
| Date: | 2025–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jbwau_v1 |
| By: | Adena, Maja (WZB Berlin); Alabrese, Eleonora (University of Bath); Capozza, Francesco (University of Barcelona); Leader, Isabelle (University of Bath) |
| Abstract: | We test whether AI-generated news images affect outlet demand and trust. In a pre-registered experiment with 2, 870 UK adults, the same article was paired with a wire-service photo (with/without credit) or a matched AI image (with/without label). Average newsletter demand changes little. Ex-post photo origin recollection is poor, and many believe even the real photo is synthetic. Beliefs drive behavior: thinking the image is AI cuts demand and perceived outlet quality by about 10 p.p., even when the photo is authentic; believing it is real has the opposite effect. Labels modestly reduce penalties but do little to correct mistaken attributions. |
| Keywords: | AI, Demand for News, Trust, Online Experiment JEL Classification: C81, C93, D83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:782 |
| By: | Alfonso Diez-Minguela (Universitat de València, Valencia (Spain)); Francisco J. Goerlich (Universitat de València & IVIE, Valencia (Spain)); Rafael González Val (Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain)); Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat (Universitat de València, Valencia (Spain)) |
| Abstract: | This study presents a novel methodology for constructing a historical population grid, ESGRID1887, that sheds light on the spatial distribution of Spain’s population in the late nineteenth century. The grid is compared, at a granular and temporally consistent scale, with population settlement patterns revealed by the most recent population grid produced by EUROSTAT (GEOSTAT2021). ESGRID1887 uses data from the Nomenclátor of Spain (1887) and cadastral records to distribute the population reported in the 1887 Spanish Census across 1 km² cells. Unlike analyses based on administrative units (municipalities), this fine-grained approach highlights the historical significance of dispersed settlement across large areas of the Atlantic, Cantabrian, and Mediterranean peripheries, as well as in several mountainous regions of the peninsula in 1887. Moreover, the comparison with GEOSTAT2021 reveals that although the populated area increased from 21.6% of the territory in 1887 to 26.4% in 2021, this modest expansion resulted from two opposing dynamics: sprawl and depopulation. One third of the cells occupied in 2021 were uninhabited in 1887, while one third of those inhabited in 1887 are now uninhabited. The new evidence presented in this article thus reveals an additional dimension of the long-term depopulation process affecting a substantial part of Spain—the emptying of the territory—which has not previously been examined from a historical perspective. |
| Keywords: | Digital Humanities, Historical Grids, Depopulation, Geography, Spain |
| JEL: | J11 N33 N01 R11 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2505 |
| By: | Adrián Carro (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Jorge E. Galán (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Enric Martorell (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Raquel Vegas (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive literature review on the effects of borrower-based macroprudential measures (BBMs)—such as loan-to-value (LTV), debt-to-income (DTI) and debt-service-to-income (DSTI) limits—with a particular focus on their effectiveness in mitigating systemic risks in housing markets. The review synthesizes findings from both empirical and theoretical studies. The evidence shows that BBMs are effective tools for addressing systemic risks arising from household over-indebtedness and real estate market imbalances. Empirical studies indicate that stricter mortgage lending standards significantly reduce the probability of default, moderate credit growth during expansionary phases and enhance the resilience of the financial system. Theoretical models further suggest that BBMs help stabilize credit cycles, lower the likelihood of financial crises and mitigate adverse welfare effects during downturns. However, they also highlight potential redistributive consequences. Overall, the evidence supports the inclusion of BBMs as core instruments within the macroprudential policy framework, while underscoring the need for flexible design and ongoing evaluation based on granular data and advanced modeling to ensure their effectiveness and minimize unintended effects. |
| Keywords: | borrower-based measures, credit growth, defaults, house prices, macroprudential policy, models and mortgages |
| JEL: | C83 E44 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2524e |
| By: | Bogdan Popovici (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | Urban competitiveness in Europe and all over the world is stronger than ever. The Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions (MICE) industry is one of the most recent strategic tools which helps the economic development of the cities and their branding. This study analyses competitiveness of Prague, Bucharest, and Rome to attract international business and more European Union funds using the MICE industry. The three cities have different approaches to use MICE industry that reflect their European and world branding, historical, cultural and economic contexts. The study evaluates three key points: MICE infrastructure and capacity, urban branding strategies, and the absorption of EU funds to improve competitiveness. Data collected from EU reports, policy analyses and national and city studies are confronted with competitiveness and branding theories to identify development trends. Prague combines particular heritage with modern MICE facilities and demonstrates consistent know how in utilising EU funds. Bucharest offers a low cost skilled workforce and underlines innovation but lacks brand visibility and has difficulties with fund absorption. Rome has a global prestige and cultural heritage which brings a lot of advantages but faces structural challenges: high costs, infrastructure age, economic structure. The study concludes that the three key points are vital for competitiveness. Recommendations are: stronger public private cooperation, integrated branding policies, and cross city collaboration in Europe for attracting premium MICE. |
| Keywords: | MICE Industry, Urban Competitiveness, City Branding, European Cohesion Policy, Central Eastern Europe, Comparative Urban Studies |
| JEL: | F00 M38 O57 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15316954 |
| By: | F. Fang Liu; A. Andrew Burton-Jones; W. Wang (Audencia Business School); D. Dongming Xu |
| Abstract: | Retransmitted messages online can have profound effects on disaster response; however, existing literature provides an incomplete account of why messages are retransmitted on social media in disasters. In particular, there is a need to theorize the capabilities of the communication tools used for sending messages, because nowadays people can send messages online via different tools. This paper aims to theorize and explain how the capabilities of communication tools affect message retransmission by affecting the generation of message characteristics. To test our account, we collected and coded Twitter data from three disasters, and employed five logistic regressions to test our hypotheses. Our results confirm our expectations that compared to messages sent from desktops, messages sent from mobile devices are less likely to be helpful and verifiable, but are more likely to have visual attachments and expressions of anxiety. |
| Keywords: | Misinformation, Disaster Management, Message Retransmission, Rumor Theory, Social Media |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05293490 |
| By: | Bonam, Dennis; Checherita-Westphal, Cristina; Pacheco, Mariana Montserrat Cerra |
| Abstract: | We estimate the contribution of discretionary fiscal policy measures to euro area inflation in the post-pandemic era using an extension of Bernanke and Blanchard (2024b)’s semi-structural model. Since the pandemic, aggregate discretionary fiscal measures had a modest yet progressively increasing positive contribution to inflation that partly worked through an indirect effect on wage growth and inflation expectations. However, net indirect taxes helped to contain inflationary pressures, both during the pandemic and energy crises. Fiscal policy, therefore, can be a powerful tool to smooth the inflationary effects of adverse supply shocks, yet may also increase inflation persistence if fiscal stimulus is not timely withdrawn. JEL Classification: C5, E32, E47, E62 |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, inflation, semi-structural model |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253153 |
| By: | Theophanis C. Stratopoulos; Victor Xiaoqi Wang |
| Abstract: | Recent advances in artificial intelligence, particularly generative AI (GenAI) and large language models (LLMs), are fundamentally transforming accounting research, creating both opportunities and competitive threats for scholars. This paper proposes a framework that classifies AI-accounting research along two dimensions: research focus (accounting-centric versus AI-centric) and methodological approach (AI-based versus traditional methods). We apply this framework to papers from the IJAIS special issue and recent AI-accounting research published in leading accounting journals to map existing studies and identify research opportunities. Using this same framework, we analyze how accounting researchers can leverage their expertise through strategic positioning and collaboration, revealing where accounting scholars' strengths create the most value. We further examine how GenAI and LLMs transform the research process itself, comparing the capabilities of human researchers and AI agents across the entire research workflow. This analysis reveals that while GenAI democratizes certain research capabilities, it simultaneously intensifies competition by raising expectations for higher-order contributions where human judgment, creativity, and theoretical depth remain valuable. These shifts call for reforming doctoral education to cultivate comparative advantages while building AI fluency. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.16055 |
| By: | Dominika Brodowicz |
| Abstract: | Responsible Property Investing (RPI) is integrating environmental and social factors into real estate investment decisions. This study examines the dual realities of RPI: its potential as a driver of green transformation and the prevalence of greenwashing practices that undermine sustainability efforts in cities as well as the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies of companies. By analyzing survey data from 2024 collected from the 60 largest municipalities in Poland and over 50 major commercial real estate investors (including companies listed on the stock exchange), this research identifies both the enablers and the barriers to implementing RPI in practice. The findings show a gap between the aspirations of RPI and its implementation, with both parties struggling to align long-term strategies and goals of the other side, underscoring the critical need for improved dialogue and harmonized policy frameworks that can ultimately bridge this divide and advance sustainable real estate practices on a broader scale including not only profit, but also environmental and social goals. This research provides recommendations for property investors, emphasizing the need for clear definitions, robust regulations, and enhanced stakeholder engagement to foster the green transformation of cities instead of greenwashing. By critically assessing Poland's experiences, this study contributes to the general discussion on achieving urban sustainability through responsible investment practices and furthermore ESG. |
| Keywords: | Esg; green transformation of cities; greenwashing; responsible property investing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_155 |
| By: | Régis Barnichon; Aayush Singh |
| Abstract: | In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates. A careful review of the major changes in US tariff policy since 1870 shows no systematic relation between the state of the cycle and the direction of the tariff changes, as partisan differences on the effects and desirability of tariffs led to opposite policy responses to similar economic conditions. Exploiting this quasi-random nature of tariff variations, we find that a tariff hike raises unemployment (lowers economic activity) and lowers inflation. Using only tariff changes driven by long-run considerations—a traditional narrative identification—gives similar results. We also obtain similar results if we restrict the sample to the modern post World War II period or if we use independent variation from other countries (France and the UK). These findings point towards tariff shocks acting through an aggregate demand channel. |
| Keywords: | tariff; inflation; unemployment; narrative approach; political |
| JEL: | F41 F13 E31 N10 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:102099 |
| By: | Maguette Sembrene (Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech); Bradford Mills (Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech); Anubhab Gupta (Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech) |
| Abstract: | Historical data show a rising trend in extreme heat in the past four decades in the Groundnut Basin of Senegal. We evaluate the economic costs of extreme heat on groundnut production in the region. Using temperature data from the ERA5 global climate reanalysis, we define extreme heat degree days (EHDDs) as the cumulative number of degree days above 35 °C during the groundnut growing season and estimate its effect on quasi-profits and yields at the person, household, and field levels utilizing a two-year panel data of 1, 123 households. Our econometric estimations show that an additional EHDD reduces quasi-profits by 5, 460 FCFA per hectare and significantly lowers yield by 2.5%. Further, rainfall interactions with EHDD generate compounding losses under high heat and rainfall. The findings highlight important and often unseen effects of increasing temperatures on agricultural practices in climate-vulnerable areas such as the Groundnut Basin and underscore the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Extreme heat Groundnut Economic costs The Groundnut Basin Senegal |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vpi:aaecpp:aaecpp2025-03 |
| By: | Charlie Joyez (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France) |
| Abstract: | We study how COVID-19 a ected the ownership co-location network of French multinationals over 2012-2022. Using INSEE's LiFi, we build annual country-industry co-location networks and assess robustness via topology (density, centralization, assortativity, clustering) and edge survival (Weighted Jaccard). We then test for post-shock shifts in the determinants of dyadic co-location with MRQAP. Three results emerge. First, the network's core is robust: topology shows no discontinuity and centrality persists. Second, adaptation is continuous at the margin: around one-third of edges rewire, concentrated in the periphery while core ties endure. Third, after 2020 the determinants of tie weights change, with a reduced role for gravity-like factors and greater cross-sector rebalancing. Thus the system is structurally robust with active peripheral adjustment. Rather than strict resilience in the sense of a return to the pre-COVID configuration, we observe durable strategic reweighting. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chain, Multinational Firms, Location Choices, Weighted Directed Networks |
| JEL: | F02 F23 F60 C4 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2025-46 |
| By: | Carrera, Leandro; Angelaki, Marina |
| Abstract: | Since the mid-2000s, Latin American countries have been re-reforming their pension systems to address the issue of low coverage and low future pensions. Chile and Uruguay, pioneers of social protection in the region, show diverging policy change outcomes. While Uruguay has implemented a series of reforms aiming at strengthening the private and the public pillars, Chile, notwithstanding a significant reform in 2008, has been debating significant change entailing possible more involvement of the state in pension provision and has recently adopted a reform that will challenge the dominance of the private pillar. We argue that the political institutional setting and the legacy of the pension system (both in terms of its design and performance) are key to understanding this diverging path. We contend that our analysis provides a useful framework to understand pension policy (re-)reforms in other countries in the region and thus contributes to the pension and policy continuity and change literature. |
| Keywords: | Chile; institutions; Latin America; pensions; policies; Uruguay |
| JEL: | H55 H53 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129926 |
| By: | Haocheng Chen; Niels Kuiper; Xiaolong Liu; Arno Van der Vlist |
| Abstract: | Using a national coverage micro dataset in the Netherlands that links house sales with single-family house (SFH) splits – a form of gentle densification where existing SFHs are subdivided into multiple units –, we present new evidence that a SFH split located within a 0-150 meter radius reduces nearby SFH sale prices by an average of 1.17%. This effect is consistent with disamenity effects (e.g., loss of privacy, local resource competition and aversions to different household types), imposed by new residents in SFH splits on the existing SFH residents. We also show that on average, an SFH split have no statistically significant effect on apartment sales and on only ground-floor low-rise apartment sales. This is likely stems from two key factors: the inherent structural design of apartment buildings and greater demographic homogeneity between apartment residents and new occupants of SFH splits. Finally, we demonstrate our findings are unlikely to be driven by the supply effects, as sales involving newly created units from SFH splits are rare in our dataset and no price effects are observed even for ground-floor low-rise apartment sales, which would be most susceptible to supply-side competition from SFH splits given their close substitutability. |
| Keywords: | Externalities; House Prices; single-family house splits; Spillover effect |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_298 |
| By: | Paolo Bertoletti |
| Abstract: | In a setting with Hotelling differentiation and (weak) network effects, when the market is already covered duopoly adoption of compatibility leads to anti-competitive effects and tends to be welfare excessive. We show that the latter result is reversed if the market is not assumed to be covered even under incompatibility (a condition which depends on the value of the intrinsic/stand-alone beneÂ…ts). |
| Keywords: | Compatibility; Network e¤ects; Hotelling differentiation |
| JEL: | D43 L15 L22 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:560 |