|
on Investment |
| By: | Vinzenz Pyka |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data from Germany, this study provides first evidence on the wage effects of collective bargaining compliance laws. These laws require establishments receiving public contracts to pay wages set by a representative collective agreement, even if they are not formally bound by one. Leveraging variation in the timing of law implementation across federal states, and focusing on the public transport sector -- where regulation is uniform and demand is driven solely by state-level needs -- I estimate dynamic treatment effects using event-study designs. The results indicate that within five years of the law's implementation, wage increases were on average 2.9\% to 4.6\% higher in federal states with such a law compared to those without one -- but only in East Germany. These findings highlight the potential for securing collectively agreed wages in times of declining collective bargaining coverage. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.01458 |
| By: | Mohammed-Khalil Ghali; Cecil Pang; Oscar Molina; Carlos Gershenson-Garcia; Daehan Won |
| Abstract: | Accurate forecasting of commodity price spikes is vital for countries with limited economic buffers, where sudden increases can strain national budgets, disrupt import-reliant sectors, and undermine food and energy security. This paper introduces a hybrid forecasting framework that combines historical commodity price data with semantic signals derived from global economic news, using an agentic generative AI pipeline. The architecture integrates dual-stream Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with attention mechanisms to fuse structured time-series inputs with semantically embedded, fact-checked news summaries collected from 1960 to 2023. The model is evaluated on a 64-year dataset comprising normalized commodity price series and temporally aligned news embeddings. Results show that the proposed approach achieves a mean AUC of 0.94 and an overall accuracy of 0.91 substantially outperforming traditional baselines such as logistic regression (AUC = 0.34), random forest (AUC = 0.57), and support vector machines (AUC = 0.47). Additional ablation studies reveal that the removal of attention or dimensionality reduction leads to moderate declines in performance, while eliminating the news component causes a steep drop in AUC to 0.46, underscoring the critical value of incorporating real-world context through unstructured text. These findings demonstrate that integrating agentic generative AI with deep learning can meaningfully improve early detection of commodity price shocks, offering a practical tool for economic planning and risk mitigation in volatile market environments while saving the very high costs of operating a full generative AI agents pipeline. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.06497 |
| By: | Guido Friebel; Matthias Heinz; Mitchell Hoffman; Tobias Kretschmer; Nick Zubanov |
| Abstract: | In a large German bakery chain, many workers report negative perceptions of monitoring via checklists. We survey workers and managers about the value and time costs to all in-store checklists, leading the firm to randomly remove two of the most perceivedly time-consuming and low-value checklists in half of stores. Sales increase and store manager attrition substantially decreases, and this occurs without a rise in measurable workplace problems. Before random assignment, regional managers predict whether the treatment would be effective for each store they oversee. Ex post, beneficial effects of checklist removal are fully concentrated in stores where regional managers predict the treatment will be effective, reflecting substantial heterogeneity in returns that is well-understood by these upper managers. Effects of checklist removal do not appear to come from workers having more time for production, but rather coincide with improvements in employee trust and commitment. Following the RCT, the firm implemented firmwide reductions in monitoring, eliminating a checklist regarded as demeaning, but keeping a checklist that helps coordinate production. |
| JEL: | M50 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34122 |
| By: | Gunther Capelle-Blancard (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre d'Econonomie de la Sorbonne & Paris School of Business) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this note is to assess whether and how the Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) could be "greened" - that is, adapted or utilized to support environmental objectives and the financing of the transition to a more sustainable economy. While traditionally conceived as a regulatory tool, the FTT also holds unexploited potential as an instrument for climate finance and broader environmental alignement. This paper outlines five complementary arguments in favor of a green FTT: (1) its capacity to mobilize stable, international funding for global public goods; (2) its symbolic relevance in light of the financial sector's contribution to social and environmental disruption; (3) its ability to modestly lengthen investment horizons and counteract excessive short-termism; (4) its potential to enhance public trust in finance by matching rhetoric about sustainable finance with contributions; and (5) its propective use as a differentiated tool to reward environmentally responsible issuers. The paper also includes a first quantitative assessment of potential revenues from a tiered green FTT, illustrating how such a mechanism could operationalize the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in climate finance. While recognizing practical limitations (in terms of governance, data reliability, ans risk of complexity) the paper concludes that a well-calibrated green FTT could be a simple yet effective lever in aligning financial markets with the ecological transition |
| Keywords: | Financial transaction tax; Securities Transaction Tax; Tobin tax; Innovative Financing; Climate Finance |
| JEL: | G1 H2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25012 |
| By: | Abhinav Arun; Fabrizio Dimino; Tejas Prakash Agarwal; Bhaskarjit Sarmah; Stefano Pasquali |
| Abstract: | The financial domain poses unique challenges for knowledge graph (KG) construction at scale due to the complexity and regulatory nature of financial documents. Despite the critical importance of structured financial knowledge, the field lacks large-scale, open-source datasets capturing rich semantic relationships from corporate disclosures. We introduce an open-source, large-scale financial knowledge graph dataset built from the latest annual SEC 10-K filings of all S and P 100 companies - a comprehensive resource designed to catalyze research in financial AI. We propose a robust and generalizable knowledge graph (KG) construction framework that integrates intelligent document parsing, table-aware chunking, and schema-guided iterative extraction with a reflection-driven feedback loop. Our system incorporates a comprehensive evaluation pipeline, combining rule-based checks, statistical validation, and LLM-as-a-Judge assessments to holistically measure extraction quality. We support three extraction modes - single-pass, multi-pass, and reflection-agent-based - allowing flexible trade-offs between efficiency, accuracy, and reliability based on user requirements. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the reflection-agent-based mode consistently achieves the best balance, attaining a 64.8 percent compliance score against all rule-based policies (CheckRules) and outperforming baseline methods (single-pass and multi-pass) across key metrics such as precision, comprehensiveness, and relevance in LLM-guided evaluations. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.17906 |
| By: | Karlsson, Niklas (Örebro University School of Business); Lunander, Anders (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | Given the presence of a cutoff score in a multiple-choice questions test, a challenge for the test maker is to choose a scoring method maximizing the probability of a passing score for those with adequate knowledge given a prescribed risk of passing those with insufficient understanding. Within the environment of a true-false choice test, we analyze the statistical power of the standard method - one point if the correct answer is marked and zero otherwise – with that of the negative marking method - no answer results in zero points, a correct answer generates one point, and an incorrect answer is penalized by one point. Our comparison of power between the two methods indicates that the power is about equal when test taker exhibits a small variance in terms of her degree of confidence across the questions. For larger variance, the negative marking method is superior to the standard method. However, the more the test taker fails to capture her level of confidence, i.e., mis-calibration of knowledge, the lower statistical power of the negative marking. Which method has the highest power depends on the magnitude of mis-calibration. Underrating does not affect the power of NM as much as overrating |
| Keywords: | multiple-choice questions; negative marking; test of statistical power |
| JEL: | A22 C12 |
| Date: | 2025–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2025_009 |
| By: | Mark Bils; Bariş Kaymak; Kai-Jie Wu |
| Abstract: | We provide a number of insights into the nature and consequences of monopsony power through the lens of comparative advantage, where employers’ power in wage setting stems from match-specific rents. Chief among them is that employers will apply larger wage markdowns to workers with greater comparative advantage at their firm. This leads to stronger monopsony power over more productive workers, provided the workers’ comparative advantage aligns with their absolute advantage. Using Brazilian administrative data, we confirm this prediction: monopsony disproportionately affects high-wage workers within firms and workers at high-paying firms. The model, calibrated to our estimates for Brazil, predicts that minimum wages increase both wages and formal employment for more productive workers while pushing less productive workers out of formal employment. |
| JEL: | E0 J0 J42 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34165 |
| By: | Gralén, Katarina (IHE - The Swedish Institute for Health Economics); Gustafsson, Anna (IHE - The Swedish Institute for Health Economics); Steen Carlsson, Katarina (IHE - The Swedish Institute for Health Economics); Olofsson, Sara (IHE - The Swedish Institute for Health Economics) |
| Abstract: | Olika åldersgrupper drabbas olika hårt av olika diagnoser. I denna rapport har vi fokus på flickor och kvinnor i olika åldrar. Baserat på data från bland annat Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Socialstyrelsen, Försäkringskassan och enkäter samt på intervjuer med patientföreträdare samt profession besvaras frågorna: <p> Hur tar sig sjukdomsbördan uttryck hos flickor och kvinnor? <p> På vilket sätt möter vården dessa behov? <p> Hur upplever flickor och kvinnor vården? <p> I åldersgruppen 10-24 år är depression och ångest de tillstånd som ger störst sjukdomsbörda för flickor/kvinnor. Bördan mätt som DALYs och förekomst enligt Folkhälsoenkäten är betydligt större (2-3 gånger högre) för flickor/kvinnor jämfört med för pojkar/män och har ökat i större utsträckning under senare tid. I relation till män får kvinnor sjukvård i den utsträckning som motiveras av dess förekomst, men en stor andel av både män och kvinnor anser att de inte fullt ut får den vård de är i behov av. Kvinnor anser också i högre grad än män att de inte alltid får ett bra bemötande i vården. Bemötande och tillgänglighet lyfts som problem inom vården av depression och ångest. <p> I åldersgruppen 25-44 år är migrän den sjukdom som ger störst sjukdomsbörda för kvinnor. Bördan mätt som DALYs och förekomst enligt Folkhälsoenkäten är betydligt större (2, 1-2, 6 gånger större) för kvinnor än för män. Kvinnor får proportionerligt mer sjukvård jämfört med män, då denna ställs i förhållande till förekomst. Detta kan dock bero på att kvinnor med migrän har en högre svårighetsgrad. Detta stöds av att en större andel i Vård- och omsorgsanalys enkät anser att de har dålig hälsa och svårigheter att klara av vardagen. Identifiering av personer med migrän och kunskap om migrän inom primärvård lyfts som områden med förbättringspotential. <p> I åldersgruppen 45-69 år är ländryggssmärta den sjukdom som ger störst sjukdomsbörda för kvinnor. Bördan är större än för män (1, 4 gånger högre baserat på DALYs respektive 1, 8 gånger högre baserat på Folkhälsoenkäten), men sjukvårdskonsumtionen är likartad mellan könen (cirka 8 % får sjukhusvård oavsett kön). Baserat på data från Vård- och omsorgsanalys enkät som analyserats i denna studie kan detta inte förklaras av svårighetsgrad. Kvinnor anger att de mår lika dåligt som män och har lika svårt att klara av vardagen. Ländryggssmärta kan dock variera stort i svårighetsgrad och en utmaning som nämns är att ge patienter rätt och samordnad vård utifrån deras behov. En väg framåt är en mer konsekvent tillämpning och följsamhet till kunskapsstöd samt fast vårdkontakt som kan följa individens behov och sjukdomsutveckling över tid. <p> I åldersgruppen 70 år och äldre är kranskärlssjukdom och Kroniskt obstruktiv lungsjukdom (KOL), sjukdomar som ger störst sjukdomsbörda enligt DALYs. För kranskärlssjukdom är bördan för kvinnor lägre än för män. Kvinnor får proportionerligt mindre specialistvård än män men mer primärvård. Detta skulle kunna bero på att kvinnor drabbas av en annorlunda typ av kranskärlssjukdom (kronisk istället för akut). Kvinnor är äldre då de drabbas av kranskärlssjukdom och kan därför vara skörare då de drabbas, vilket bland annat stöds av att fler har en dålig hälsa jämfört med män. Av denna anledning kan det finnas ett större behov för vårdplatser för kvinnor då de kan behöva stanna längre under sin sjukhusvistelse. Det nämns också att det finns ett behov av bättre samordning och uppföljning i register kring prevention, då denna ges i både primärvård och specialist-vård. <p> Sjukdomsbördan vid KOL är större bland kvinnor än bland män i åldersgruppen 70 år och äldre. Detta speglar ett trendbrott där kvinnor gått om män i både sjuklighet och dödlighet kopplat till KOL. Jämfört med män tycks kvinnor få sjukhusvård i den utsträckning som motiveras av deras sjukdomsbörda. Andelen som anser att de får den vård de har behov av fullt ut är dock lägre för kvinnor och andelen som har dålig hälsa och svårigheter i vardagen är högre bland kvinnor med KOL jämfört med bland män med KOL. Det nämns att kvinnor kan begränsas i vårdsökande till följd av skam. Ett problemområde som lyfts för vården är brister i implementering och följsamhet till riktlinjer och kunskapsstöd, framför allt i preventiva insatser som rökavvänjning. Inom omsorgen efterfrågas ett kunskapslyft för kommunal hälso- och sjukvård och hemtjänst. |
| Keywords: | sjukdomsbörda; flickor; kvinnor; DALY; depression och ångest; migrän; ländryggssmärta; KOL; kranskärlssjukdom; Depression and anxiety; Migraine; Low back pain; Coronary heart disease; COPD; disease burden; girls; women |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ihewps:2025_011 |
| By: | Charles J. Courtemanche; Joseph Garuccio |
| Abstract: | Certificate-of-Need (CON) laws require the approval of states’ health planning agencies for health care providers to engage in regulated actions such as opening or expanding facilities or purchasing equipment. This study reviews the literature on CON laws, with an emphasis on how they affect hospitals. All else equal, economic theory suggests that hospitals should see fewer new competitors, charge higher prices, and earn higher net revenues. However, these predictions assume otherwise perfectly competitive markets, and health care markets are heavily distorted in ways that change meaningfully over time. Further, CON laws restrain not only entry of new facilities but also expansion of existing facilities, reducing their ability to leverage any potential regulatory advantages. Viewed in its totality, the literature suggests that CON laws benefit hospitals in some ways and hinder them in others. There is strong evidence of restricted entry and an increase in the number of procedures per hospital. However, other evidence points towards constraints on hospital expansion, while effects on prices and profitability are mixed and quality of care, if anything, appears to worsen. |
| JEL: | I11 I18 L25 L51 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34026 |
| By: | Domenico de Paola (IBBR CNR - Istituto di Bioscienze e BioRisorse = Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources - CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche); Francesca Taranto (IBBR CNR - Istituto di Bioscienze e BioRisorse = Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources - CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche); Soraya Mousavi (IBBR CNR - Istituto di Bioscienze e BioRisorse = Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources - CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche); Francesco Mercati; Wilma Sabetta (IBBR CNR - Istituto di Bioscienze e BioRisorse = Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources - CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche); Marina Tumolo (IBBR CNR - Istituto di Bioscienze e BioRisorse = Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources - CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche); Sharif Islam (Naturalis Biodiversity Center [Leiden]); Roland Pieruschka (IBG - Institute of Bio- and Geosciences [Jülich] - FZJ - Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Jülich | Jülich Research Centre - Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association); Andrea Scaloni; Anne-Françoise Adam-Blondon (IFB-core - Institut Français de Bioinformatique - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, URGI - Ressources génomique-info - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lorenzo Maggioni; Sandra Goritschnig (Alliance - Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) [Rome] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]); Filippo Guzzon; Massimo Ianigro (IRSA - CNR Water Research Institute - CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche); Giovanni Giuseppe Vendramin; Giovanni Giuliano (ENEA - Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile = Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development); Gabriele Bucci (IBBR CNR - Istituto di Bioscienze e BioRisorse = Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources - CNR - National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche) |
| Abstract: | Background: Plant genetic resources (PGRs) are crucial for sustainable agriculture and food security, but the roadmap of the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) lacks a dedicated research infrastructure (RI) for their systematic cataloguing, safeguarding and improvement. To fill this gap, we propose a new RI concept specifically for PGRs in Europe. Scope: The proposed RI, called ‘Plant Genetic Resources Community for Europe' (GRACE), is aimed to support current and future research projects on PGRs, enhance collaboration across European countries, unlock the adaptive potential of crop biodiversity preserved in PGR collections, and strengthen the current and future sustainability of the food chain in Europe. As part of the preparatory project ‘Promoting a Plant Genetic Resource Community for Europe' (PRO-GRACE), we analysed the current landscape of European RIs supporting PGR-related research in complementary fields regarding research aims, research products and features/services. Conclusions: Through a robust quantitative approach, we have identified gaps and potential synergies among six RIs from the Health and Food and Environment domains of the ESFRI roadmap. These findings were discussed in the context of European PGR research priorities and current societal needs, and the implementation of GRACE was proposed as a strategic response to these challenges. |
| Keywords: | genebanks, ex situ and in situ PGR conservation, plant genetic resources, GRACE-RI, research infrastructure, ESFRI roadmap, Crop diversity, gap analysis, synergy analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05222930 |
| By: | Daniel Tuki; |
| Abstract: | Although considerable research has examined the impact of violent conflict on health outcomes in Africa—such as undernutrition, child mortality, and maternal mortality—a significant gap remains in understanding how it affects individuals’ perceptions of healthcare services and the quality of their interactions with healthcare staff during hospital visits. This study seeks to address that gap by analyzing data from Round 9 of the Afrobarometer survey, conducted across 39 African countries between 2021 and 2023 (n = 53, 444). Regression analysis indicates that greater exposure to violent conflict is associated with a lower probability of individuals visiting a healthcare facility in the past year—likely due to fear of victimization, which suppresses health-seeking behavior. Among the subset of respondents who did visit a healthcare facility, further analysis shows that conflict exposure is linked to more negative evaluations of the care they received. Specifically, it increases the likelihood of individuals reporting poor service quality, experiencing disrespect from healthcare staff, and paying bribes to access needed care. |
| Keywords: | africa, healthcare, perceptions, service quality, violent conflict |
| JEL: | D74 F52 I12 I14 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:434 |
| By: | Garrett Hart (Marymount University, Arlington, VA, USA) |
| Abstract: | Why do organizational executives overlook the moral consequences of their decisions, despite often being viewed as ethical role models? This paper examines ethical blindness in the C-suite, a phenomenon in which senior organizational leaders unintentionally distort or overlook ethical considerations due to systemic, psychological, and cultural biases. Drawing on peer-reviewed journal articles published from 2013 to 2025, this integrative literature review synthesizes insights from behavioral ethics, organizational leadership, and moral psychology. The analysis reveals how power dynamics, strategic silence, cognitive biases, and flawed reward structures collectively erode ethical judgment, enabling executives to rationalize misconduct while preserving a positive moral self-image. The paper proposes a theoretical model to distinguish between ethical blindness and intentional wrongdoing, accounting for mechanisms such as ethical fading, bounded ethicality, and systemic ethical failures at the infrastructural level. The findings challenge traditional approaches to ethics training, underscoring the need for governance reforms that focus on transparency, accountability, and moral reflexivity within executive leadership. This redirects attention from individual failings to the systemic conditions that perpetuate ethical blindness at the highest organizational levels. |
| Keywords: | Ethical Fading, Corporate Executives, Business Ethics, Organizational Leadership |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0543 |
| By: | Kiarash Firouzi |
| Abstract: | Extreme volatility, nonlinear dependencies, and systemic fragility are characteristics of cryptocurrency markets. The assumptions of normality and centralized control in traditional financial risk models frequently cause them to miss these changes. Four components-volatility stress testing, stablecoin hedging, contagion modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation-are integrated into this paper's modular simulation framework for crypto portfolio risk analysis. Every module is based on mathematical finance theory, which includes stochastic price path generation, correlation-based contagion propagation, and mean-variance optimization. The robustness and practical relevance of the framework are demonstrated through empirical validation utilizing 2020-2024 USDT, ETH, and BTC data. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.08915 |
| By: | Darrell Norman Burrell (Marymount University, Arlington, VA, USA) |
| Abstract: | The growing prevalence of computer-mediated communication (CMC) has prompted critical inquiry into how core human experiences, such as empathy, are transformed in digital environments. Contrary to the widespread assumption that technology inherently diminishes empathy, this study examines the nuanced psychological processes by which empathy is constructed, expressed, and experienced in online interactions. Focusing on emotional exchanges within digital contexts such as online support groups, teletherapy, and peer-to-peer forums, this research applies established psychological frameworks of affective and cognitive empathy to examine the enabling and inhibiting conditions of "digital empathy." Drawing on theories from social and cyberpsychology, as well as perspective-taking theory, the study explores how empathy functions when traditional nonverbal cues are limited or reinterpreted through text, emojis, video, and asynchronous responses. This work makes an original contribution by moving beyond the deficit model of digital interaction, offering a more differentiated understanding of empathy's adaptability and resilience online. It demonstrates that under certain psychological and contextual conditions, digital environments can facilitate profound emotional attunement, peer solidarity, and affective regulation. |
| Keywords: | Digital Empathy, Cyberpsychology, Online Communities, Psychological Safety Computer-Mediated Communication, Digital Well-being, Online Support Groups, Empathic Communication, Digital Civility |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0526 |
| By: | Monteverde, Richard P.; Mejia, Ivy P.; Dasas, Louie B.; Bazer, Saddam C.; Garcia, Charissa Mae S.; Aquino, Carina S. |
| Abstract: | This study explores the conceptualization and operationalization of middle skills within the Philippine context, examining how various institutions define and implement middle-skills training. It also assesses the alignment of these training programs with workforce demands, particularly in relation to the priority sectors identified in the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028. Employing a multi-method qualitative research design, the study integrates data from the Philippine Statistics Authority’s Labor Force Survey, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews with Technical and Vocational Education and Training practitioners and government stakeholders. Quantitative analysis reveals that Level 5 postsecondary graduates often outperform some Level 6 bachelor’s degree undergraduates in both employment rates and salary levels, demonstrating the viability of middle-skills pathways that do not require a four-year degree. However, qualitative findings highlight a fragmented understanding of middle skills across sectors, which undermines policy coherence and limits the effectiveness of training initiatives. The study also identifies a disconnect between existing curricula and the evolving demands of the labor market, further compounded by inadequate stakeholder engagement. These findings suggest that, in the absence of a unified definition and structured policy framework, middle-skills training risks obsolescence in the face of technological change and shifting economic conditions. A sustainable pathway, beginning in elementary education and continuing through vocational training, offers a practical and accessible route to employment and economic participation. The study emphasizes the need for a strategic, data-driven approach supported by robust policy coordination, multi-sector collaboration, and a responsive training ecosystem. A comprehensive reform agenda is urgently needed to ensure that middle-skills development contributes meaningfully to workforce adaptability, innovation, and national competitiveness. Future research should examine the long-term impact of middle-skills training on employment trajectories, productivity, and economic resilience. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | middle skills;workforce development;technical education;Philippine labor market;policy alignment |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-22 |
| By: | Mark Bils; Barış Kaymak; Kai-Jie Wu |
| Abstract: | We provide a number of insights into the nature and consequences of monopsony power through the lens of comparative advantage, where employers' power in wage setting stems from match-specific rents. Chief among them is that employers will apply larger wage markdowns to workers with greater comparative advantage at their firm. This leads to stronger monopsony power over more productive workers, provided the workers' comparative advantage aligns with their absolute advantage. Using Brazilian administrative data, we confirm this prediction: monopsony disproportionately affects high-wage workers within firms and workers at high-paying firms. The model, calibrated to our estimates for Brazil, predicts that minimum wages increase both wages and formal employment for more productive workers while pushing less productive workers out of formal employment. |
| Keywords: | oligopsony; comparative advantage; wages; markdowns; Roy model |
| JEL: | E2 J4 |
| Date: | 2025–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:101477 |
| By: | Majer, Sarah; Boelhauve, Patrick; Hasch, Joachim; Ohlmeyer, Martin |
| Abstract: | The increased use of wood as a sustainable building material offers significant potential for reducing CO₂ emissions in the construction sector. At the same time, the natural variability of wood products, particularly their volatile organic compounds (VOCs), poses challenges for indoor air quality. Monoterpenes such as α-pinene and 3-carene dominate the emissions of pine wood and are the focus of current research aimed at assessing and reducing VOC emissions and exposure. The standardized approach to emission analysis, based on the chamber method according to DIN EN 16516:2017, is time-consuming. This project report demonstrates that near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR), combined with multivariate analytical methods, can provide an efficient and precise alternative. The results show that reliable predictive models for terpene emissions from pine wood could be developed using NIR technology. For α-pinene and 3-carene, cross-validated correlation coefficients of R²CV = 0.77 were achieved, indicating good model quality. The mean deviation in cross-validation (RMSECV) was 1, 257 μg/m³ for α-pinene and 1, 232 μg/m³ for 3-carene. These models enable a rapid evaluation of product emissions, with model accuracy performing particularly well at medium and higher concentrations. However, limitations exist in the lower concentration range, which restricts the applicability of the method in such cases. The applicability to wood materials such as strands (long, thin chips) used for the production of OSB, proved problematic due to transmission effects and high spectral variability. To make the technology usable for woodbased materials, advanced calibration approaches are required. Overall, NIR technology represents a promising complement to existing analytical methods and opens up new perspectives for the sustainable processing of wood products. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:jhimwo:368988 |
| By: | Atika Aouri; Philipp Otto |
| Abstract: | We introduce a heterogeneous spatiotemporal GARCH model for geostatistical data or processes on networks, e.g., for modelling and predicting financial return volatility across firms in a latent spatial framework. The model combines classical GARCH(p, q) dynamics with spatially correlated innovations and spatially varying parameters, estimated using local likelihood methods. Spatial dependence is introduced through a geostatistical covariance structure on the innovation process, capturing contemporaneous cross-sectional correlation. This dependence propagates into the volatility dynamics via the recursive GARCH structure, allowing the model to reflect spatial spillovers and contagion effects in a parsimonious and interpretable way. In addition, this modelling framework allows for spatial volatility predictions at unobserved locations. In an empirical application, we demonstrate how the model can be applied to financial stock networks. Unlike other spatial GARCH models, our framework does not rely on a fixed adjacency matrix; instead, spatial proximity is defined in a proxy space constructed from balance sheet characteristics. Using daily log returns of 50 publicly listed firms over a one-year period, we evaluate the model's predictive performance in a cross-validation study. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.20101 |
| By: | Farah Ajana; Hamid Ait Lemqeddem; Mohamed El Adib (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the impact of digital adoption on workplace well-being, focusing on the case of Moroccan banks. Based on a narrative literature review drawing from key theories in technology management and work psychology, a conceptual model is proposed to analyze the factors influencing digital adoption (such as attitude, social influence, facilitating conditions, and compatibility) as well as its direct effects on job characteristics, work environment, organizational climate, recognition, and organizational benevolence. These dimensions are considered essential sources of workplace well-being. The study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the organizational dynamics involved in the digitalization of work processes, while also laying the groundwork for future empirical research to test the proposed hypotheses. The expected outcomes are intended to guide managerial practices and human resource policies, helping to maximize the benefits of digital technologies without compromising employees' quality of life. Ultimately, this research seeks to fill an empirical gap regarding digital adoption in the Moroccan banking sector. |
| Abstract: | Cet article s'intéresse à l'impact de l'adoption du digital sur le bien-être au travail, en se concentrant sur le cas des banques marocaines. À travers une revue de littérature narrative, mobilisant les principales théories en management des technologies et en psychologie du travail, un modèle conceptuel est proposé pour analyser les facteurs influençant l'adoption du digital (attitude, influence sociale, conditions facilitantes, compatibilité), ainsi que ses impacts directs sur les caractéristiques du poste, l'environnement, l'ambiance, la reconnaissance et la bienveillance organisationnelle. Ces dimensions sont considérées comme des sources essentielles du bien-être au travail. L'étude vise à fournir une compréhension approfondie des dynamiques organisationnelles liées à la digitalisation, tout en préparant une recherche empirique future destinée à tester les hypothèses formulées. Les résultats attendus permettront d'orienter les pratiques managériales et les politiques RH afin de maximiser les bénéfices du digital tout en préservant la qualité de vie des salariés. Cette recherche contribue ainsi à combler un vide empirique concernant l'adoption du digital dans le secteur bancaire marocain. |
| Keywords: | Digital adoption, Workplace well-being, Moroccan banking, Digital transformation, Work conditions. |
| Date: | 2025–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05205029 |
| By: | David Winkelmann; Rouven Michels; Christian Deutscher |
| Abstract: | In the 2024/25 season, UEFA introduced the incomplete round-robin format in the Champions League and Europa League, replacing the traditional group stage with a single league phase table of all 36 teams. Now, the top eight qualify directly for the round of 16, while teams ranked 9th-24th enter a play-off round. Existing simulation-based analyses, such as those by Opta, provide guidance on points presumably needed for qualification but show discrepancies when compared to actual outcomes in the first season. We address this gap using a bivariate Dixon and Coles model to address lower draw frequencies, with team strengths proxied by Elo ratings. This framework allows us to simulate matches and derive qualification thresholds for direct and play-off advancement. Our results offer scientific guidance for clubs and managers, improving strategic decision-making under the new UEFA club competition formats. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.20075 |
| By: | Yaron Azrieli; Rachana Das |
| Abstract: | We study a model of persuasion in which the receiver is a `conservative Bayesian' whose updated belief is a convex combination of the prior and the correct Bayesian posterior. While in the classic Bayesian case providing information sequentially is never valuable, we show that the sender gains from sequential persuasion in many of the environments considered in the literature on strategic information transmission. We also consider the case in which the sender and receiver are both biased and prove that the maximal expected payoff for the sender under sequential persuasion is the same as in the case where neither of them is biased. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.09464 |
| By: | Gaurav Singh |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes and forecasts daily passenger counts for New York City's iconic yellow taxis during 2017-2019, a period of significant decline in ridership. Using a comprehensive dataset from the NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission, we employ various time series modeling approaches, including ARIMA models, to predict daily passenger volumes. Our analysis reveals strong seasonal patterns, with a consistent linear decline of approximately 200 passengers per day throughout the study period. After comparing multiple modeling approaches, we find that a first-order autoregressive model, combined with careful detrending and cycle removal, provides the most accurate predictions, achieving a test RMSE of 34, 880 passengers on a mean ridership of 438, 000 daily passengers. The research provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in understanding and potentially addressing the declining trajectory of NYC's yellow taxi service. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.10588 |
| By: | David R. Heres (Universidad Iberoamericana Mexico City); Alejandro Lopez-Feldman (Universidad Iberoamericana Mexico City - Environment for Development Initiative, University of Gothenburg, School of Business, Economics and Law); Juan M. Torres-Rojo (Universidad Iberoamericana Mexico City) |
| Abstract: | The opportunity cost of forested land is one of the key elements that determines the success of any forest conservation strategy. In this paper, we explore how sensitive tropical forest conservation is to competing economic incentives in Mexico from 2002 to 2011, both within and outside protected areas. Our results show that forest revenues have a statistically significant positive effect on the conservation of most forest categories. This is a promising finding for the potential success of programs that provide economic compensation to landowners in exchange for conserving forests since the effect is also economically significant. Somehow reassuringly, economic revenues have a smaller effect on the lower levels of deforestation observed within the boundaries of protected areas. |
| JEL: | H23 Q15 Q23 |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smx:wpaper:2025001 |
| By: | Georgy Lukyanov; Konstantin Popov; Shubh Lashkery |
| Abstract: | We analyze a dynamic labor market in which a worker with career concerns chooses each period between (i) self-employment that makes output publicly observable and (ii) employment at a firm that pays a flat wage but keeps individual performance hidden from outside observers. Output is binary and the worker is risk averse. The worker values future opportunities through a reputation for talent; firms may be benchmark (myopic) (ignoring the informational content of an application) or equilibrium (updating beliefs from the very act of applying). Three forces shape equilibrium: an insurance - information trade-off, selection by reputation, and inference from application decisions. We show that (i) an absorbing employment region exists in which low-reputation workers strictly prefer the firm's insurance and optimally cease producing public information; (ii) sufficiently strong reputation triggers self-employment in order to generate public signals and preserve future outside options; and (iii) with equilibrium firms, application choices act as signals that shift hiring thresholds and wages even when in-firm performance remains opaque. Comparative statics deliver sharp, testable predictions for the prevalence of self-employment, the cyclicality of switching, and wage dynamics across markets with different degrees of performance transparency. The framework links classic career-concerns models to contemporary environments in which some tasks generate portable, public histories while firm tasks remain unobserved by the outside market (e.g., open-source contributions, freelancing platforms, or sales roles with standardized public metrics). Our results rationalize recent empirical findings on the value of public performance records and illuminate when opacity inside firms dampens or amplifies reputational incentives. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.01265 |
| By: | Tomás Larroucau; Ignacio A. Rios; Anaïs Fabre; Christopher Neilson |
| Abstract: | We examine whether large-scale information interventions can improve college application outcomes in a centralized admissions system. Using nationwide surveys from Chile, we document widespread information frictions and frequent application mistakes, such as omitting attainable preferred programs or failing to include safety options. To address these frictions, we partnered with the Ministry of Education to implement a large-scale field experiment that provided applicants with personalized information on admission probabilities and program characteristics through customized online platforms. The intervention increased the probability that previously unmatched students received an assignment by 44% and improved placement into higher-ranked programs by 20%. Building on these results, the policy was scaled nationwide, reaching all applicants. The scaled-up version, evaluated via an encouragement design, confirmed substantial gains, including higher admission rates for initially unmatched students and persistent enrollment improvements. Our findings show that low-cost, personalized information policies, when integrated into centralized admissions platforms, can substantially reduce application mistakes and improve student outcomes at scale. The results also highlight how leveraging existing market design infrastructure can enable scalable, cost-effective interventions that enhance efficiency and equity in higher education access. |
| JEL: | C93 D47 D83 I0 I23 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34164 |
| By: | David Lowing (Kyushu University, CRESE - Centre de REcherches sur les Stratégies Economiques (UR 3190) - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE], LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Makoto Yokoo (Kyushu University) |
| Abstract: | A Sharing value for transferable utility games distributes the Harsanyi dividend of each coalition among the players in the coalition's support. Such distribution is done according to a certain sharing system that determines the Sharing value. In this paper, we extend Sharing values to multi-choice games. Multi-choice games are a generalization of transferable utility games in which players have several activity levels. Unlike in transferable utility games, there is no straightforward way to interpret the support of a coalition in a multi-choice game. This makes it more tedious to distribute the Harsanyi dividend of a multi-choice coalition. We consider three possible interpretations of the support of a multi-choice coalition. Based on these interpretations, we derive three families of Sharing values for multi-choice games. To conduct this study, we discuss novel and classical axioms for multi-choice games. This allows us to provide an axiomatic foundation for each of these families of values. |
| Keywords: | Harsanyi set, Sharing values, Multi-choice games |
| Date: | 2025–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04018735 |
| By: | Ballantyne, Patrick Dr. (University of Liverpool); Cabrera, Carmen (University of Liverpool); Garofani, Giada; Singleton, Alex |
| Abstract: | The strategic placement of pedestrian crossings is critical for promoting road safety in urban environments. While previous research has used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to identify underserved areas, existing approaches often fail to integrate empirical data with stakeholder expertise, or directly link road safety concerns with wider spatial equity considerations. This study develops a novel GIS-Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (GIS-MCDA) framework to evaluate the suitability of sites for new pedestrian crossings, incorporating four key criteria: existing provision of pedestrian infrastructure, road safety risks, proximity to urban amenities, and socio-demographic vulnerability. Applied to Liverpool City Region as a policy case study, the framework integrates advanced spatial analysis techniques with stakeholder informed weights, to assess the suitability of postcodes for new pedestrian crossings. Site suitability scores are generated which reflect both the considerations relevant to key stakeholders, as well as the distribution of controlled pedestrian crossings, road traffic collisions, urban amenities and census-derived vulnerability indicators. The results reveal significant spatial inequalities where, specific locations with high socio-demographic vulnerability also experience the greatest road safety risks and poorest access to pedestrian crossings, despite proximity to essential services. The framework successfully pinpoints priority locations where road safety and spatial inequality concerns compounded negatively, providing evidence-based guidance for data-driven, stakeholder-informed pedestrian infrastructure investment. |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z456t_v1 |
| By: | Maroua Boualam (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Khalid Rguibi |
| Abstract: | Les auteurs n'ont pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude et ils sont responsables de tout plagiat dans cet article. Conflit d'intérêts :Les auteurs ne signalent aucun conflit d'intérêts. |
| Keywords: | Economic fluctuations, Biais cognitifs Prise de décision financière Fluctuations économiques Finance comportementale Résilience économique. JEL Classification : D81 G01 G40 G41 O16 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Cognitive biases Financial decision-making Economic fluctuations Behavioral finance Economic resilience. Classification JEL : D81 G01 G40 G41 O16 Paper type : Theoretical Research, Biais cognitifs, Prise de décision financière, O16 Paper type : Theoretical Research, Economic resilience. Classification JEL : D81, Behavioral finance, Fluctuations économiques, Financial decision-making, O16 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Cognitive biases, G41, G40, G01, Résilience économique. JEL Classification : D81, Finance comportementale |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05204532 |
| By: | Lydia Cox; Jiacheng Feng; Gernot J. Müller; Ernesto Pastén; Raphael Schoenle; Michael Weber |
| Abstract: | The jointly optimal monetary and fiscal policy mix in a multi-sector New Keynesian model with sectoral government spending and productivity shocks entails a separation of roles: Sectoral government spending optimally adjusts to sectoral output gaps and inflation rates—a policy supported by evidence from sectoral federal procurement data. Monetary policy optimally focuses on aggregate stabilization, but deviates from a zero-inflation target; in a model calibration to the U.S., however, it effectively approximates a zero-inflation target. Because monetary policy is a blunt instrument and government spending trades off stabilization against the optimal-level public good provision, the first best is not achieved. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1024 |
| By: | Fabrizio Dimino; Krati Saxena; Bhaskarjit Sarmah; Stefano Pasquali |
| Abstract: | The growing adoption of large language models (LLMs) in finance exposes high-stakes decision-making to subtle, underexamined positional biases. The complexity and opacity of modern model architectures compound this risk. We present the first unified framework and benchmark that not only detects and quantifies positional bias in binary financial decisions but also pinpoints its mechanistic origins within open-source Qwen2.5-instruct models (1.5B--14B). Our empirical analysis covers a novel, finance-authentic dataset revealing that positional bias is pervasive, scale-sensitive, and prone to resurfacing under nuanced prompt designs and investment scenarios, with recency and primacy effects revealing new vulnerabilities in risk-laden contexts. Through transparent mechanistic interpretability, we map how and where bias emerges and propagates within the models to deliver actionable, generalizable insights across prompt types and scales. By bridging domain-specific audit with model interpretability, our work provides a new methodological standard for both rigorous bias diagnosis and practical mitigation, establishing essential guidance for responsible and trustworthy deployment of LLMs in financial systems. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.18427 |
| By: | Simona Franguloiu (Constantin Brâncoveanu University of PiteÈ™ti, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The international community began to address the diverse needs and vulnerabilities of children as human beings in the last century, and some human rights instruments have also addressed the rights of young people. In this regard, it has been recognized that young people, who are still in the early stages of their personality development, need special attention and assistance in order to develop mentally and intellectually and to integrate better into society, and must be protected by law in accordance with conditions that guarantee their peace, freedom, dignity, and safety. All states with a legal system based on the rule of law have made legislative changes that focus on the principle of protecting the best interests of the child. However, some legal systems, including the Romanian one, seem to be moving towards a new paradigm through certain legislative changes, some of which are open to criticism in that they depart from the aforementioned principle, with particular reference to prevention, especially with regard to the crime of rape of a minor. In our opinion, prevention should focus on raising the quality of life and general well-being, and not only on the immediate elimination of clearly defined but partial problems. |
| Keywords: | Rape, Minor, Child's Best Interests, Legislation, Criminal Code |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0522 |
| By: | Nicola Jean; Giacomo Le Pera; Lorenzo Giada; Claudio Nordio |
| Abstract: | We present a novel framework for pricing waterfall structures by simulating the uncertainty of the cashflow generated by the underlying assets in terms of value, time, and confidence levels. Our approach incorporates various probability distributions calibrated on the market price of the tranches at inception. The framework is fully implemented in PyTorch, leveraging its computational efficiency and automatic differentiation capabilities through Adjoint Algorithmic Differentiation (AAD). This enables efficient gradient computation for risk sensitivity analysis and optimization. The proposed methodology provides a flexible and scalable solution for pricing complex structured finance instruments under uncertainty |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.13324 |
| By: | Araneda, Elisa; Ruelas, Ignacio; Gálvez, Tomás |
| Abstract: | This document analyses the contributions made in the region by integrated national financing frameworks (INFFs). It highlights their potential to make it easier to finance the SDGs and other national priorities, expediting resource mobilization and the alignment of public policies. Examples in the region include Colombia, where budget tagging was implemented and tools were created to engage the private sector; Costa Rica, where support was provided to develop a framework for issuing sovereign sustainable bonds; and the Dominican Republic, where efforts have been made to identify financial gaps and design innovative tools for implementing its national development strategy. The document also highlights the potential of INFFs in subnational governments, which play a crucial role in providing public services and could benefit from innovative financing alternatives and public-private partnerships. Lastly, it addresses the main labour market issues in the region and how INFFs could contribute to decent employment, tackling challenges such as labour informality, gender gaps and youth unemployment. |
| Date: | 2025–08–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:82290 |
| By: | Pedro Picchetti |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the partial identification of treatment effects in Instrumental Variables (IV) settings with binary outcomes under violations of independence. I derive the identified sets for the treatment parameters of interest in the setting, as well as breakdown values for conclusions regarding the true treatment effects. I derive $\sqrt{N}$-consistent nonparametric estimators for the bounds of treatment effects and for breakdown values. These results can be used to assess the robustness of empirical conclusions obtained under the assumption that the instrument is independent from potential quantities, which is a pervasive concern in studies that use IV methods with observational data. In the empirical application, I show that the conclusions regarding the effects of family size on female unemployment using same-sex sibling as the instrument are highly sensitive to violations of independence. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.10242 |