|
on Investment |
| By: | Lyu, Ke (Nevada State University); Fossen, Frank M. (University of Nevada, Reno) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of minimum wage increases on nonemployer business establishments in the United States. We develop a theoretical model of occupational choice and estimate effects using panel data from the Nonemployer Statistics (2001-2020). Our identification strategy compares contiguous counties across state borders. Results show that a $1 increase in the minimum wage reduces the number of nonemployers by 0.5%-0.9%, likely due to relatively more attractive wage jobs. The effect is smaller in counties with higher shares of minorities, females, and lower education, while the transportation sector expands due to the gig economy. Further analysis reveals that higher minimum wages discourage transitions from nonemployer to employer status and increase shifts from self-employment to wage work or unemployment, showing how this regulation shapes entrepreneurship dynamics. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, nonemployer businesses, minimum wages |
| JEL: | J24 J38 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18101 |
| By: | Marcelo L. Bergolo; Rodrigo Ceni; Mathias Fondo; Damián Vergara |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages a large minimum wage reform in Uruguay to study the effects of minimum wages on the distribution of firm wage premia. Wage inequality decreased substantially after the reform, with almost all of the decrease attributed to a reduction in between-firm inequality. AKM variance decompositions show that the relative variance of firm fixed effects substantially decreased after the reform. A time-varying AKM model reveals that this pattern was driven by a compression in the distribution of firm fixed effects, with low-paying firms increasing their fixed effect after the minimum wage increase. Both firm-level and worker-level difference-in-differences analyses show that the minimum wage reform had a causal effect on the compression in the distribution of firm wage premia. The results suggest that minimum wages can increase the supply of "good jobs" by "making bad jobs better", in addition to reallocating workers towards "good jobs". |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J30 J38 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34188 |
| By: | Seungmin Lee |
| Abstract: | Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) aims to improve food security of low-income households in the U.S. A new, continuous food security measure called the Probability of Food Security (PFS), which proxies for the official food security measure but is implementable on longer periods, enables the study of SNAP's effects on the intensive margin. Using variations in state-level SNAP administrative policies as an instrument for individual SNAP participation, I find that SNAP does not have significant effects on estimated food security on average, both on the entire population and low-income population whom I defined as income is below 130\% of poverty line at least once during the study period. I find SNAP has stronger positive effects on those whose estimated food security status is in the middle of the distribution, but has no significant effects in the tails of the distribution. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.19553 |
| By: | Ziyi Wang; Carmine Ventre; Maria Polukarov |
| Abstract: | We advance market-making strategies by integrating Adversarial Reinforcement Learning (ARL), Hawkes Processes, and variable volatility levels while also expanding the action space available to market makers (MMs). To enhance the adaptability and robustness of these strategies -- which can quote always, quote only on one side of the market or not quote at all -- we shift from the commonly used Poisson process to the Hawkes process, which better captures real market dynamics and self-exciting behaviors. We then train and evaluate strategies under volatility levels of 2 and 200. Our findings show that the 4-action MM trained in a low-volatility environment effectively adapts to high-volatility conditions, maintaining stable performance and providing two-sided quotes at least 92\% of the time. This indicates that incorporating flexible quoting mechanisms and realistic market simulations significantly enhances the effectiveness of market-making strategies. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.16589 |
| By: | Igor Halperin |
| Abstract: | Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to critical failure modes, including \textit{intrinsic faithfulness hallucinations} (also known as confabulations), where a response deviates semantically from the provided context. Frameworks designed to detect this, such as Semantic Divergence Metrics (SDM), rely on identifying latent topics shared between prompts and responses, typically by applying geometric clustering to their sentence embeddings. This creates a disconnect, as the topics are optimized for spatial proximity, not for the downstream information-theoretic analysis. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a principled topic identification method grounded in the Deterministic Information Bottleneck (DIB) for geometric clustering. Our key contribution is to transform the DIB method into a practical algorithm for high-dimensional data by substituting its intractable KL divergence term with a computationally efficient upper bound. The resulting method, which we dub UDIB, can be interpreted as an entropy-regularized and robustified version of K-means that inherently favors a parsimonious number of informative clusters. By applying UDIB to the joint clustering of LLM prompt and response embeddings, we generate a shared topic representation that is not merely spatially coherent but is fundamentally structured to be maximally informative about the prompt-response relationship. This provides a superior foundation for the SDM framework and offers a novel, more sensitive tool for detecting confabulations. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.03533 |
| By: | Bo E. Honore; Luojia Hu |
| Abstract: | Wage growth is a key indicator of labor market conditions, but common measures often conflate individual wage changes with shifts in workforce composition. This paper develops a composition-adjusted measure of wage growth using nonparametric decomposition and program evaluation methods. The adjusted measure tracks unadjusted growth in stable periods but diverges during disruptions: during the Covid-19 pandemic, wage growth falls from 12% to 6% after adjustment. The method accommodates rich covariates, is robust to data quality issues such as rounding, heaping and top-coding, and enables distributional and subgroup analysis using micro data, offering more accurate views of underlying wage dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Wage growth; Selection; Decomposition |
| JEL: | J31 C21 C18 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:101717 |
| By: | Ananiades, Eduardo; Antunes, Daví |
| Abstract: | The improvements in artificial intelligence (AI) and data processing technologies have renewed the question posed by John M. Keynes in Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren. Particularly regarding the expectation of human emancipation from material survival as a result of technological progress, the possibility of seeking purpose and fulfillment is revived. However, new technologies have driven the economy towards an ontological reduction that subordinates the human being to abstract economic relations, reducing labor and work to exchange-value. Hence, labour ceases to be a process aimed at satisfying concrete needs and becomes, instead, an economic function restricted to the market and production. This paper is organized into two primary sections. The first provides a diagnosis of the U.S. labor market, which is characterized by an increasing polarization between high- and low-skill occupations, alongside a narrow labour structure of typical middle-class jobs. The segmentation of the labor market takes shape as the manufacturing sector loses its centrality and the service sector becomes more significant to the U.S. economy. This dynamic unfolds as financial deregulation and neoliberal policies shift economic structures toward speculative wealth accumulation, diminishing industrial job opportunities and polarizing the labor market into highly skilled, well-paid roles and precarious, low-skilled positions. The second section examines how AI technologies have transformed the tasks performed by certain jobs and the hierarchical and economic interaction within firms, altering the qualification requirements, especially for corporate-level jobs. The competition for high- and low-skill occupations intensifies. In the first case, the demand for constant updating of technical competencies and knowledge to complement AI systems increases. For low-skill occupations, fierce competition takes place due to the simplification of tasks, allowing less-skilled workers to perform the same functions. Therefore, the integration of AI into the labor market exacerbates wage disparities and affects opportunities both across and within different segments of the working class, increasing the demand for highly skilled workers while simultaneously reducing opportunities for those in low-skilled positions. |
| Keywords: | United States — 21st Century, Artificial Intelligence and Technological Transformation, Labor Market, Labor Market Polarization, 4.0 Technologies — Impacts on the Labor Market |
| JEL: | J21 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125898 |
| By: | Ruf, Kevin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Berger, Viktoria (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wolter, Stefanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Grunau, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the fifth wave of the Linked Personnel Panel (LPP 1224). The LPP is a linked-employer-employee data set on human resources (HR) work, corporate culture and management instruments in German establishments that evolved within the framework of the project ‘Quality of work and economic success’. The survey waves contain information from 1, 219 establishments, 7, 508 employees (wave 1), 771 establishments and 7, 282 employees (wave 2), 846 establishments and 6, 779 employees (wave 3), 769 establishments and 6, 494 employees (wave 4), 770 establishments and 7, 397 employees (wave 5), and 763 establishments and 6, 611 employees. The LPP is representative for German private sector establishments with at least 50 employees subject to social security. In wave 6, 556 smaller companies with fewer than 50 employees subject to social insurance contributions were also surveyed for the first time, but without the corresponding employees. The linkage with the IAB Establishment Panel yields a data product that enables longitudinal analyses regarding HR strategies and quality of work in Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Betriebsbefragung ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datendokumentation ; Datengewinnung ; Datenzugang ; Fragebogen ; Datenanonymisierung ; Mitarbeiterbefragung ; Personalpolitik ; IAB-Datensatz Linked Personnel Panel ; IAB-Datensatz Linked Personnel Panel ; Stichprobenverfahren ; Unternehmenskultur ; 10.5164/IAB.LPP1224.de.en.v1 ; Arbeitsplatzqualität |
| Date: | 2025–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202507(de) |
| By: | Dylan Laplace Mermoud; Victor Roca i Lucio |
| Abstract: | The main goal of this paper is to settle a conceptual framework for cooperative game theory in which the notion of composition/aggregation of games is the defining structure. This is done via the mathematical theory of algebraic operads: we start by endowing the collection of all cooperative games with any number of players with an operad structure, and we show that it generalises all the previous notions of sums, products and compositions of games considered by Owen, Shapley, von Neumann and Morgenstern, and many others. Furthermore, we explicitly compute this operad in terms of generators and relations, showing that the M\"obius transform map induces a canonical isomorphism between the operad of cooperative games and the operad that encodes commutative triassociative algebras. In other words, we prove that any cooperative game is a linear combination of iterated compositions of the 2-player bargaining game and the 2-player dictator games. We show that many interesting classes of games (simple, balanced, capacities a.k.a fuzzy measures and convex functions, totally monotone, etc) are stable under compositions, and thus form suboperads. In the convex case, this gives by the submodularity theorem a new operad structure on the family of all generalized permutahedra. Finally, we focus on how solution concepts in cooperative game theory behave under composition: we study the core of a composite and describe it in terms of the core of its components, and we give explicit formulas for the Shapley value and the Banzhaf index of a compound game. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.01969 |
| By: | Hagos, Samuel Zewdie; Tuki, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Ethnic federalism has long been a cornerstone of Ethiopia's political system - and a recurrent source of violent conflict. Despite its centrality to the country's governance and conflict dynamics, there is a notable absence of large-N quantitative research examining how exposure to violence shapes public attitudes toward ethnic federalism. This study addresses that gap by leveraging nationally representative data from rounds 8 and 9 of the Afrobarometer surveys (n = 4, 778). To estimate the causal effect of violent conflict on attitudes toward ethnic federalism, we employ an instrumental variable approach that exploits the distance from respondents' geolocation to the nearest international border as an exogenous source of variation in conflict exposure. Our findings reveal that exposure to violent conflict increases support for ethnic federalism. Qualitative interviews with participants across four regions in Ethiopia suggest that violent conflict erodes trust in the central government, weakens national belonging, and strengthens ethnic identification. |
| Keywords: | Ethiopia, ethnic federalism, ethnicity, violent conflict, marginalization, governance |
| JEL: | D63 D74 J15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gigawp:324863 |
| By: | Ruf, Kevin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Berger, Viktoria (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wolter, Stefanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Grunau, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the fifth wave of the Linked Personnel Panel (LPP 1224). The LPP is a linked-employer-employee data set on human resources (HR) work, corporate culture and management instruments in German establishments that evolved within the framework of the project ‘Quality of work and economic success’. The survey waves contain information from 1, 219 establishments, 7, 508 employees (wave 1), 771 establishments and 7, 282 employees (wave 2), 846 establishments and 6, 779 employees (wave 3), 769 establishments and 6, 494 employees (wave 4), 770 establishments and 7, 397 employees (wave 5), and 763 establishments and 6, 611 employees. The LPP is representative for German private sector establishments with at least 50 employees subject to social security. In wave 6, 556 smaller companies with fewer than 50 employees subject to social insurance contributions were also surveyed for the first time, but without the corresponding employees. The linkage with the IAB Establishment Panel yields a data product that enables longitudinal analyses regarding HR strategies and quality of work in Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Betriebsbefragung ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datendokumentation ; Datengewinnung ; Datenzugang ; Fragebogen ; Datenanonymisierung ; Mitarbeiterbefragung ; Personalpolitik ; IAB-Datensatz Linked Personnel Panel ; Stichprobenverfahren ; Unternehmenskultur ; 10.5164/IAB.LPP1224.de.en.v1 ; Arbeitsplatzqualität |
| Date: | 2025–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202507(en) |
| By: | Gäbler, Stefanie; Gather, Matthias; Goebel, Jonas; Krawinkel, Holger; Priebs, Axel; Seidemann, Dirk; Sondermann, Martin; Stölting, Volker; Wachter, Julia; Wenner, Fabian |
| Abstract: | Die Reaktivierung von Schienenstrecken ist eine zentrale Maßnahme für nachhaltige Raumentwicklung und Mobilität. Allerdings werden bestehende Reaktivierungspotenziale in Deutschland nur unzureichend genutzt, denn nur wenige Strecken wurden in den letzten Jahren bzw. werden absehbar wieder in Betrieb genommen. Die Länder zeigen eine unterschiedliche Dynamik bei der Analyse und Umsetzung der Reaktivierungspotenziale. Besonders problematisch sind augenblicklich die knappen Regionalisierungsmittel, die einige Länder zum Abbau von ÖPNV-Angeboten gezwungen haben. Unbefriedigend ist die Datenlage, die ein dringend notwendiges Monitoring erschwert. In diesem Positionspapier werden die Unterschiede in der Planung, Umsetzung und Finanzierung von Reaktivierungsvorhaben in verschiedenen deutschen Bundesländern adressiert. Es werden qualitative und quantitative Unterschiede aufgezeigt, Methoden zur Bewertung des Potenzials stillgelegter Strecken verglichen und Erfolgsfaktoren sowie Hemmnisse hervorgehoben. Als besondere Herausforderungen werden dabei die uneinheitliche Finanzierung, bürokratische Hürden und lange Planungsprozesse identifiziert. Das Positionspapier schließt mit Empfehlungen zu Verantwortlichkeiten, planerischen Voraussetzungen und beschleunigten Verfahren. |
| Abstract: | The reactivation of railway lines is seen as a key measure for sustainable spatial development and improved mobility. However, the reactivation potential is not sufficiently utilised, as only a few lines have been reactivated in recent years or will be reactivated in the foreseeable future. The federal states in Germany adopt different approaches to analysing reactivation potentials and implementing reactivation projects. Particularly problematic are the scarce regionalisation funds, which have already forced some federal states to discontinue public transport services. Furthermore, the available database is unsatisfactory, making it difficult to carry out much-needed monitoring. This position paper deals with the differences in the planning, implementation, and financing of reactivation projects in the different German states. It identifies qualitative and quantitative differences, compares methods for assessing the potential of abandoned lines, and highlights success factors and obstacles. The paper identifies inconsistent funding, bureaucratic hurdles, and lengthy planning processes as particularly challenging. The paper concludes with recommendations on responsibilities, planning requirements, and accelerated procedures. |
| Keywords: | Schienenreaktivierung, Bundesländer, Landesnahverkehrsplanung, Umsetzung, Planungsprozesse, Potenziale, Reactivation, railway lines, German federal states, state regional transport planning, implementation, planning processes, potentials |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:324865 |
| By: | Seth Ariel Green |
| Date: | 2025–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjn:evalua:aflv6m1e |
| By: | Raimi, Daniel (Resources for the Future); Eisenburg, Ann; Kaufman, Noah; Michieka, Nyakundi; Roach, Travis; Whitlock, Zachary (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | This report is the third in a series that explores the strategies US oil- and gas-producing regions may pursue in building economic resilience—defined as the capacity to recover from negative economic shocks (Martin 2012)—to a changing energy landscape. Recent decades have seen dramatic changes in domestic oil and gas production that have produced a complex mix of local economic benefits, environmental and health damages, and long-term economic risks. Although international, federal, and state policymakers have developed strategies to support coal communities through an energy transition, oil- and gas-producing regions have received considerably less attention. This report, focused on the state of Oklahoma and its capital, Oklahoma City, is part of a larger effort to assess local priorities for economic resilience to inform policy development at the state and federal levels.In October 2024, we conducted semi-structured interviews with a range of local stakeholders during a 3-day research trip to Oklahoma City. We asked interviewees to describe their views on Oklahoma’s approach to building economic resilience and diversification, existing state or federal policies that advance those efforts, and what changes they would make to programs to improve the efficacy of existing policies. We also asked interviewees what barriers stood in the way of advancing their goals for economic development.Our interviews produced six main findings:Oklahoma is heavily dependent on the oil and gas industry but is not making major efforts to build economic resilience. This issue is particularly acute for the fiscal health of rural oil- and gas-producing communities and the State as a whole.Oklahoma City, on the other hand, has made considerable progress in diversifying its economy by attracting new industries and enhancing local public services and quality of life through a city tax initiative. The oil and gas industry remains an important part of the local economy, but is no longer the dominant economic force, reducing the city’s exposure to an energy transition.Poor education and healthcare services may impede economic diversification. Oklahoma persistently ranks near the bottom of US states for a range of outcomes relating to these issues, which deters employers. However, Oklahoma’s vocational programs are seen as a success in training workers for existing industries, including oil and gas.Politically divisive issues, including abortion and LGBTQA+ rights, may deter certain investments in Oklahoma. In recent years, certain social policies and rhetoric from state elected officials have complicated efforts to attract major investments and may push some residents to leave the state.Tribal nations within Oklahoma are seeking to take advantage of federal funding opportunities but continue to face challenges related to sovereignty and governmental capacity. Some Tribal governments generate substantial revenues from oil and gas production and are seeking to increase those revenues, which could further expose these communities to future fiscal shocks.Oklahoma’s state and local governments have had limited success accessing federal funds. Interviewees noted a combination of capacity limitations and a lack of desire among some political leaders to pursue certain federal funding opportunities as major contributors.These takeaways lead us to the following conclusions:A long-term reduction in global oil and gas demand poses major economic and fiscal risks for the state of Oklahoma, rural oil- and gas-producing communities, and some Tribal nations within the state. Oklahoma City is less exposed because of its successful diversification efforts.Not all fossil fuel-dependent states and tribes are pursuing, or are likely to pursue, strategies to build economic resilience. This suggests that direct federal efforts may be needed to support affected communities in a world where global demand for hydrocarbons declines.Providing quality public services and amenities is crucial to attracting and retaining businesses and workers. Failure to do so will make it more difficult to develop a diverse and robust economy.Non-economic policy issues, such as abortion and LGBTQA+ rights, can have substantial economic effects. A strong focus on these social policies can exacerbate the “big sort, ” a nationwide trend of communities becoming more politically homogeneous, thereby deterring workers (and the businesses that employ them) with different political views.Capacity-building efforts are essential for local governments, Tribal nations, and states to take advantage of available federal funding opportunities. Public capacity is typically overwhelmed with “immediate demands, ” making it difficult to develop long-term plans for economic resilience. |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-25-12 |
| By: | Seyoum, A.; Adamseged, M. E.; Haileslassie, A.; Ires, I.; Jacobs-Mata, I. |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia has significant untapped irrigation potential, but progress in the sector remains constrained by sole reliance on public investment, governance challenges, and limited private sector participation. Recognizing these issues, the Government of Ethiopia has prioritized Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) as a strategy to accelerate irrigation development, enhance agricultural productivity, and improve rural livelihoods. In collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Irrigation and Lowlands, the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) conducted a comprehensive needs assessment to identify stakeholder priorities and guide the development of viable PPP business models for smallholder irrigation. This study, part of the CGIAR Diversification in East and Southern Africa (UU) initiative and Scaling for Impact Science Program, is designed to inform the national guidelines for PPP implementation in Ethiopia’s smallholder irrigation sector. The report presents insights from extensive stakeholder mapping, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions across multiple regions in Ethiopia. Findings reveal strong interest among farmers and private sector actors to engage in irrigation PPPs, provided clear policies, incentives, and institutional support systems are in place. However, challenges remain, including fragmented governance, inadequate infrastructure, limited access to credit, weak market integration, and capacity gaps among farmers and Irrigation Water User Associations (IWUAs). Key recommendations emphasize the need for clear legal frameworks, strengthened institutional capacity, incentives to attract private investment, value chain integration, and targeted capacity building for farmers and IWUAs. The study also highlights the importance of inclusive approaches that engage women and youth, and the need for effective monitoring and regulation to ensure PPPs contribute to social equity and environmental sustainability. By addressing these systemic challenges, PPPs can become a transformative tool for Ethiopia’s smallholder irrigation development, supporting food security, climate resilience, and economic growth. This report serves as a critical reference for policymakers, practitioners, and development partners working to foster sustainable and inclusive irrigation systems in Ethiopia and beyond. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Farm Management, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iwmirp:369094 |
| By: | Georgy Lukyanov |
| Abstract: | We study a repeated sender-receiver game where inspections are public but the sender's action is hidden unless inspected. A detected deception ends the relationship or triggers a finite punishment. We show the public state is one dimensional and prove existence of a stationary equilibrium with cutoff inspection and monotone deception. The sender's mixing pins down a closed-form total inspection probability at the cutoff, and a finite punishment phase implements the same cutoffs as termination. We extend to noisy checks, silent audits, and rare public alarms, preserving the Markov structure and continuity as transparency vanishes or becomes full. The model yields testable implications for auditing, certification, and platform governance: tapering inspections with reputation, bunching of terminations after inspection spurts, and sharper cutoffs as temptation rises relative to costs. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.04035 |
| By: | Mehran Akbari; Christian Bauer; Matthias Neuenkirch; Dennis Umlandt |
| Abstract: | Economic expectations play a central role in financial markets, yet investors often disagree about the economy’s future. This disagreement has long been viewed as a potential driver of asset prices, but it remains unclear whether it reflects mispricing or a priced source of risk. We address this question by constructing monthly disagreement indices from Consensus Economics forecasts from 24 OECD markets. Firm-level exposure to economic disagreement is estimated through return regressions. Results reveal pronounced cross-country heterogeneity. In developed markets, particularly the United States, greater exposure to disagreement consistently predicts lower future returns, supporting the mispricing hypothesis. Smaller markets exhibit mixed patterns, with some evidence of positive risk premia, while other cases show no significant effect. These findings provide new international evidence that the pricing of forecast disagreement is context-dependent, shaped by market structure and institutional depth. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing, Consensus Economics, Forecast Disagreement, Macroeconomic Forecasts |
| JEL: | D84 G12 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:202507 |
| By: | Garriga, Ana Carolina; Gavin, Michael A. |
| Abstract: | A large literature explores how loan conditionalities and policy recommendations embedded in International Monetary Fund lending programs influence country behavior and policy choices. We argue that the IMF’s influence extends beyond these intentional efforts. This paper shows that the growth in the IMF’s lending capacity has failed to keep pace with financial globalization, and that this has incentivized emerging and developing economies to strengthen their domestic institutions for financial stability, particularly, their central bank’s capabilities to act as a lender of last resort. We conceptualize this as influence by omission, whereby the IMF shapes behavior not through direct engagement but through its declining ability to serve as an effective financial backstop. Using original data coding central bank lender of last resort powers for 60 developing countries between 1994 and 2020, we find that countries with relatively limited access to IMF resources are significantly more likely to strengthen their central banks’ lender of last resort authority. This finding is robust across a range of model specifications, instrumental variable analyses, and dynamic estimations. An event study of countries’ response to the Covid shock reveals that countries with stronger lending of last resort capabilities were much more likely to manage the crisis without drawing on IMF resources. Importantly, this effect is specific to lender of last resort powers and does not extend to other aspects of central bank governance such as independence or transparency, suggesting that distinct international and domestic incentives shape different reform trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Central Banks, Domestic Reforms, Financial Stability, International Monetary Fund, Lender of Last Resort |
| JEL: | E58 E61 F33 F34 F55 G15 G28 H12 H81 |
| Date: | 2025–08–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125739 |
| By: | Michael Schmutz; Eckhard Platen; Thorsten Schmidt |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the pricing and hedging of nonreplicable contingent claims, such as long-term insurance contracts like variable annuities. Our approach is based on the benchmark-neutral pricing framework of Platen (2024), which differs from the classical benchmark approach by using the stock growth optimal portfolio as the num\'eraire. In typical settings, this choice leads to an equivalent martingale measure, the benchmark-neutral measure. The resulting prices can be significantly lower than the respective risk-neutral ones, making this approach attractive for long-term risk-management. We derive the associated risk-minimizing hedging strategy under the assumption that the contingent claim possesses a martingale decomposition. For a set of nonreplicable contingent claims, these strategies allow monitoring the working capital required to generate their payoffs and enable an assessment of the resulting diversification effects. Furthermore, an algorithmic refinancing strategy is proposed that allows modeling the working capital. Finally, insurance-finance arbitrages of the first kind are introduced and it is demonstrated that benchmark-neutral pricing effectively avoids such arbitrages. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.19494 |
| By: | Hoang, Van Thang |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a practitioner-led case study of Nông Sản Bán Buôn, a small agricultural e-commerce platform in Vietnam that aimed to connect rural producers to international markets. Unlike most research on digital trade which focuses on large platforms or macroeconomic policy, this study examines the practical barriers facing small, mission-driven ventures operating under resource constraints. Drawing on firsthand experience and qualitative documentation from 2017 to 2024, the paper identifies six core challenges: digital visibility, buyer trust, regulatory compliance, logistics infrastructure, access to capital, and pandemic-induced market shocks. The findings illustrate that technical innovation alone is insufficient for sustainability in emerging market contexts. Long-term success in agri-tech requires trust-building, inclusive infrastructure, and ecosystem-level coordination. This study contributes grounded insights to the literature on agricultural digital transformation and highlights policy directions to support small platforms in the Global South. |
| Date: | 2025–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bz2x4_v1 |
| By: | Elhanan Helpman |
| Abstract: | Foreign trade has significantly contributed to global improvements in living standards, a reduction in global inequality since the mid-1990s, and the lifting of millions out of extreme poverty. These gains were supported by the rules-based international order established after World War II. However, these achievements are now under threat. Escalating trade wars risk not only causing significant economic harm to both the United States and low-income countries, but also exacerbating geopolitical tensions. |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F15 F5 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34189 |
| By: | Reitmeier, Lea; Smolenska, Agnieszka; Dikau, Simon |
| Abstract: | Jurisdictions around the world have already developed and implemented policies to transition to a net zero economy. To maximise the impact and effectiveness of such policies a coordinated policy approach is necessary. To guide policymakers as they face the challenge of taking financial and economic policy decisions for the transition, this report develops a design approach based on ‘building blocks’. The approach can be adjusted in the context of the specific needs of the financial sector in the transition. It incorporates building blocks to better enable the design, implementation and evaluation of financial and economic public policy that supports the integration of climate change and environmental factors, with a particular emphasis on the intricate interrelationship between economic and financial systems, the roles of key economic and financial stakeholders and enabling improved coordination. The authors define three main building blocks, described in Figure 1: 1) foundations; 2) adjusting policies; and 3) evaluation and anticipation. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129328 |
| By: | Ren\'e Bohnsack; Mickie de Wet |
| Abstract: | This article develops the concept of Autonomous Business Models (ABMs) as a distinct managerial and strategic logic in the age of agentic AI. While most firms still operate within human-driven or AI-augmented models, we argue that we are now entering a phase where agentic AI (systems capable of initiating, coordinating, and adapting actions autonomously) can increasingly execute the core mechanisms of value creation, delivery, and capture. This shift reframes AI not as a tool to support strategy, but as the strategy itself. Using two illustrative cases, getswan.ai, an Israeli startup pursuing autonomy by design, and a hypothetical reconfiguration of Ryanair as an AI-driven incumbent, we depict the evolution from augmented to autonomous business models. We show how ABMs reshape competitive advantage through agentic execution, continuous adaptation, and the gradual offloading of human decision-making. This transition introduces new forms of competition between AI-led firms, which we term synthetic competition, where strategic interactions occur at rapid, machine-level speed and scale. It also challenges foundational assumptions in strategy, organizational design, and governance. By positioning agentic AI as the central actor in business model execution, the article invites us to rethink strategic management in an era where firms increasingly run themselves. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.17339 |
| By: | Kurniady, Alvin |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theory of growth with self-learning AI. I decompose “technologies” into a non-self-learning component T(t) and a recursive self-learning term (S(t) D(t)) (t), where (t) = 0 + log(S(t) D(t)) links capability gains to deployed self-learning technologies S and data D. I present two complementary production functions. Version 1 highlights distributional channels by separating AI-complementary vs. AI-substitutable labor and human capital. Version 2 is measurement-oriented, mapping the self-learning stock to AI-specific physical capital, labor forces, and human capital, thereby operationalizing S. The model yields sharp regime conditions: with small/approximately constant (t), the economy exhibits a balanced growth path (BGP); when θ(t) becomes large enough to push effective returns above one, growth accelerates. A log-space recursion implies a quadratic bound for log((SD) (t)), establishing no finite-time singularity. The framework produces testable predictions—notably the need for both linear and quadratic terms in log(SD) in empirical specifications—and clarifies bottlenecks: insufficient AI-specific capital or low-quality data can hold down θ(t) and prevent acceleration even with advanced systems. Policy implications follow directly: scale compute and energy, raise HAI, LAI, and improve data governance/quality. The contribution is conceptual and theory-only, positioning the mechanism for subsequent empirical work while providing a tractable structure for cross-country comparisons in an economy increasingly driven by recursive, autonomous innovation. |
| Keywords: | Self-learning artificial intelligence Economic growth theory Recursive learning dynamics AI-specific capital and labor Balanced growth path vs. accelerating growth Cross-country growth models |
| JEL: | O41 |
| Date: | 2025–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126057 |
| By: | Hitchcock, Ian; Raimi, Daniel (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Wyoming is heavily dependent on the extraction of fossil fuels, particularly coal, to support its economy. As the United States seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the federal government has begun to implement policies designed to support fossil fuel–dependent “energy communities.” This report, based on interviews with experts and policymakers at the local, state, and federal levels, examines whether—and to what extent—current federal policies are supporting Wyoming’s goals of an energy transformation to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.Our interviews and analysis suggest that current federal efforts, while helpful, could do more to boost Wyoming’s communities during the energy transition. A leading cause is the lack of capacity among local and state officials to access the considerable array of federal resources made available through recent legislation. This lack of access has hindered Wyoming’s strategy of developing new technologies that take advantage of the state’s coal resources but avoid the associated emissions. However, some federal efforts, particularly the federal Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization (the “Energy Communities IWG”) and its Wyoming Rapid Response Team (RRT) appear promising and can offer lessons for policymakers seeking to support fossil fuel–dependent communities across the country. In particular, the community-focused approach of the RRT, which emphasizes relationship building, strengthening local governance capacity, and flexibility in program design, can create the conditions that lead to progress in the energy transformation. This progress is particularly notable in Wyoming, where fossil fuels have dominated state economics, culture, and politics for decades.Our main findings are as follows:Wyoming is pursuing a strategy of energy transformation that seeks to continue coal use while developing new technologies that avoid greenhouse gas emissions.The federal IWG, and particularly the Wyoming RRT, has provided useful resources and offers a model for success in place-based policymaking and implementation.Despite the support of the IWG, many local stakeholders still lack the capacity to access complex federal funding opportunities. |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-24-25 |
| By: | Ezzedine Ghlamallah (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Laurence Gialdini (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Sami Ben Larbi (CERGAM de Toulon - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille/Equipe de recherche de Toulon - CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon - IAE Toulon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Toulon - UTLN - Université de Toulon, UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine how ethical investment funds, particularly socially responsible investment funds (SRI) and sharī'ah-compliant investment funds (SCI), integrate societal issues into their asset allocation and selection strategies. Design/methodology/approach: This study is based on a multiple-theoretical framework and uses a qualitative methodology. Thirty semi-structured interviews were conducted with SRI, SCI and conventional asset management professionals to understand the asset allocation and selection processes. Findings: The results show convergences in the integration of societal issues between SRI and SCI funds but also significant divergences linked to the underlying principles. Three manager profiles are identified: committed, chameleon and cosmetic. The seven stages in the process of integrating the issues of the Anthropocene Era into the management practices of SCI and SRI are highlighted, as is the process of SCI–SRI hybridization currently at work in the industry. Research limitations/implications: The research was limited by sample size, and regulatory variations were not considered. Future studies should explore the impact of emerging technologies on ethical investing. Practical implications: Ethical funds need to align their strategies with societal issues to maintain their legitimacy and differentiate themselves in the market while avoiding "greenwashing" and "islamicwashing" practices. Social implications: This study highlights the importance of strengthening the integration of environmental, social and corporate governance criteria for SRI funds and sharī'ah compliance for SCI funds to meet stakeholder expectations and promote overall sustainable development. Originality/value: This study proposes a new theoretical approach that integrates financial, institutional and strategic concepts to analyze the integration of societal issues into ethical fund practices. |
| Keywords: | Greenwashing, Islamicwashing, Responsible investment, Islamic finance, Ethical finance, ESG, Sustainable develoment, Asset selection, Asset allocation, Shariah compliant investment, SRI socially responsible investment |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05232196 |
| By: | Piseddu, Tommaso (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Stenvall, David (Linköping University) |
| Abstract: | The literature on wildfires and residential property prices is limited and primarily focuses on wildfires in North America. There is a lack of studies examining this relationship in Europe. With the largest forest area in the entire EU, this relationship is particularly relevant to explore in a Swedish context. In this paper, we investigate how the largest wildfire in Sweden's recent history, the 2014 wildfire in Västmanland County, affected nearby housing prices. Using a difference-in-differences method, we find a significant negative effect. Our most conservative estimate indicates an approximate 2.7% reduction in final selling prices for post-fire sales located within 20 km of the wildfire area. However, the negative effect is larger when defining the treated area as a 5 km (-10.1%) or 10 km (-8.9%) distance to the fire, or when using a repeated sales sample that includes only single-family houses. In a heterogeneity assessment with respect to housing types, we find that our effects are driven by the impact on single-family houses rather than apartments. For the former group, we find large negative and significant effects, but we do not detect any impact on apartment prices. The largest impact on prices occurs in the first months after the wildfire and are identified along the trajectory of the fire’s smoke. |
| Keywords: | Wildfires; Housing prices; Natural disasters; Repeated sales |
| JEL: | C21 Q54 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2025_009 |
| By: | Pedro J. Torres L. (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias) |
| Abstract: | En este estudio, el autor sigue una técnica de imputación para reconstruir los ingresos de los hogares en la Encuesta ESRU de Movilidad Social en México 2023 (ESRU-EMOVI 2023) utilizando la Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares 2022 (ENIGH 2022) como conjunto de datos donante. Al combinar los indicadores de educación, ocupación y activos, construye índices multidimensionales de estatus socioeconómico y evalúa su capacidad para predecir el ingreso imputado. El análisis revela una heterogeneidad regional sustancial: la educación y la riqueza son los predictores más fuertes en el sur de México, mientras que los indicadores ocupacionales tienen un mayor poder explicativo en las regiones norte y centro. Las diferencias de género son relativamente modestas, pero indican un rendimiento predictivo ligeramente superior de los indicadores del nivel socioeconómico entre las mujeres. En general, los resultados subrayan la necesidad de contar con estrategias de selección o imputación de variables sustitutivas específicas para cada contexto, con el fin de mejorar las políticas públicas dirigidas a combatir la pobreza y las desigualdades. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auk:ecosoc:2025_9 |
| By: | Pauline Bucciarelli; Vincent d'Herbemont |
| Abstract: | The transition towards low-carbon and digital technologies is set to profoundly reshape metals markets, particularly those required for battery manufacturing. Amid growing geoeconomic fragmentation, this shift is accelerating the implementation of public policies aimed at securing supply and strengthening the resilience of strategic technology value chains. In this context, we explore the design of the recently adopted Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) in the European Union, focusing on the feasibility of its reshoring targets for battery-grade lithium.By integrating the entire lithium value chain into an Integrated Assessment Model, we analyse the interplay between lithium supply, demand, and recycling within decarbonisation scenarios. Our findings suggest significant challenges in meeting the CRMA targets without reducing industrial demand. We show that sufficiency strategies could help achieve these benchmarks, while cutting European lithium imports by at least 44% between 2030 and 2050 and reducing cumulative final demand by 1.2 Mt, a 46% decrease relative to current policy trajectories.More broadly, our analysis highlights sufficiency as a lever to reconcile ecological ambition with supply security, notably by enhancing the robustness of the lithium value chain. Finally, we recommend shifting the CRMA’s recycling benchmark towards an end-of-life recycling rate, as it is better suited to the dynamics of the lithium market. |
| Keywords: | Critical raw materials; Lithium; Integrated assessment model (IAM); Low-carbon scenarios; Sufficiency |
| JEL: | Q32 Q38 C61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-36 |
| By: | Bedük, Selçuk (University of Oxford); Yong, Anna |
| Abstract: | While any experience of child poverty can affect life chances, longer exposure is particularly concerning due to its lasting effects on education, health and earnings. This study adopts a life-course perspective, tracking poverty from birth to age 10 for cohorts born in Britain between 1991 and 2017. On average, 17% of children spent at least half of their childhood in poverty. Long-term poverty affected 25% of those born in the early 1990s, markedly declined to 13-14% for cohorts born after the 1997 welfare reforms, and substantially increased again to 23% for children born following the 2013 austerity reforms. Decomposition analysis shows that cross-cohort changes are driven more by shifts in the penalties associated with work and family risk factors than by changes in their prevalence. These shifts in penalties reflect broader changes in redistribution and predistribution. The early decline in long-term poverty was largely due to rising employment and earnings in low-income households, while the post-austerity increase stems mainly from reduced redistribution. For cohorts born in the 2000s, social transfers played a substantial role in containing long-term poverty despite worsening predistribution. Overall, the findings show that long-term childhood poverty remains a significant challenge in Britain and highlight the need for both stronger redistribution and improved predistribution to address it. |
| Date: | 2025–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e7pkj_v1 |
| By: | Matej Steinbacher; Mitja Steinbacher; Matjaz Steinbacher |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the bifurcative dynamics of an artificial stock market exchange (ASME) with endogenous, myopic traders interacting through a limit order book (LOB). We showed that agent-based price dynamics possess intrinsic bistability, which is not a result of randomness but an emergent property of micro-level trading rules, where even identical initial conditions lead to qualitatively different long-run price equilibria: a deterministic zero-price state and a persistent positive-price equilibrium. The study also identifies a metastable region with elevated volatility between the basins of attraction and reveals distinct transient behaviors for trajectories converging to these equilibria. Furthermore, we observe that the system is neither entirely regular nor fully chaotic. By highlighting the emergence of divergent market outcomes from uniform beginnings, this work contributes a novel perspective on the inherent path dependence and complex dynamics of artificial stock markets. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.17837 |
| By: | Amélie Bourceret (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sophie Drogué (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Guzel Kadriye Kardelen (CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Les systèmes agricoles étant de plus en plus complexes, les approches de modélisation avancées sont cruciales pour comprendre la dynamique et combler les lacunes. Cette étude systématique examine l'intégration de la modélisation basée sur les agents (ABM) et de la programmation mathématique (MP) dans les contextes agricoles. Nous avons analysé les études sélectionnées répondant aux critères d'inclusion, en caractérisant les structures des modèles, les processus de décision, les interactions entre les agents et les forces/limites comparatives. Les résultats révèlent diverses applications couvrant la gestion des ressources, l |
| Keywords: | Systèmes agricoles, Programmation mathématique, Modélisation basée sur des agents, Décision des agriculteurs |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05216767 |
| By: | Dora Costa; Ziqi Zhao |
| Abstract: | We examine disparities in acquittal rates and sentencing for Black and White soldiers in the US Civil War using all general courts-martial. We find that Blacks were disproportionately punished for group actions like mutiny and for violent crimes involving group violence, suggesting fears of large-scale rebellion influenced justice. However, we also uncover a system that was fair relative to many modern criminal courts in acquittals and in death sentences. The needs of the Army pushed towards fairness. |
| JEL: | J71 K42 N41 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34184 |
| By: | Martin, Julien; Pesendorfer, Martin; Shannon, Jack |
| Abstract: | Common values auction models, where bidder decisions depend on noisy signals of common values, provide predictions about Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) outcomes. In settings where these common values can be estimated, these predictions can be tested. We propose a series of tests, robust to assumptions about the signal structure, to determine whether the observed data could have been generated by a Bayesian Nash equilibrium. In the setting of oil and gas lease auctions in New Mexico, we nd evidence that participation decisions are correlated and that participants system- atically underbid in light of ex post outcomes. |
| Keywords: | testing; collusion; auctions |
| JEL: | D44 L10 L40 |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128285 |
| By: | Brent Bundick; Isabel Cairó; Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau |
| Abstract: | Asymmetries play an important role in many macroeconomic models. We show that assumptions on household and firm expectations play a key role in determining the effects of these asymmetries on macroeconomic outcomes. If households and firms have perfect foresight and hence do not account for the possibility of future shocks, then the implied longer-run averages and distributions for unemployment and inflation can differ significantly from their rational expectations counterparts. We first derive this result analytically under either an asymmetric monetary policy rule or a nonlinear Phillips curve before numerically examining some of the key nonlinearities featured in the recent literature. |
| Keywords: | asymmetries; macroeconomics; business cycles; expectations |
| JEL: | E32 E52 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:101697 |
| By: | Coggins, Sam; Munshi, Sugandha; Santos, Paulo; Smith, Jeremy; Yadav, Anil Kumar; Poonia, Shishpal P.; Patil, Shridhar; Singh, Naveen Kumar; Sawarn, Anushka; Ireland, David C. |
| Abstract: | Farmers increasingly use videos and other digital tools to access and share farming information. However, women in agriculture have commonly been excluded from influencing and accessing these digital tools. Rigorous evaluations have found that including women farmers in the creation and screening of farming videos can benefit women through improved productivity and decision-making power. But what is needed for extension workers to make these videos accessible to women farmers outside of carefully managed pilots? We implemented a randomized controlled trial testing how the gender of farmers featured in wheat farming advisory videos influenced how much, and with whom, 294 extension workers shared these videos in rural Bihar. We interpreted results through twenty follow-up interviews and the ‘Mechanisms and Conditions’ framework based in affordance theory. We found the extent to which extension workers shared videos with women farmers hinged on extension workers' perceptions, material resources, and cultural contexts, rather than the gender of farmers featured in videos. From a theoretical perspective, this core finding suggests the 'Mechanisms and Conditions' framework requires modification to account for material resource access when explaining technology use. From a practical perspective, the core finding prompts practitioners to ask ‘how might extension systems circulating digital tools be more inclusive?’, not just ‘how might we adapt digital tools to be more inclusive?’. This systems-level approach to empowering women in agricultural innovation systems could involve supporting inclusive person-to-person extension networks, and avoiding dependence on smartphone-based extension systems, like YouTube and chatbots. |
| Date: | 2025–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:aj2k7_v1 |
| By: | Simon Hatzesberger; Iris Nonneman |
| Abstract: | This article demonstrates the transformative impact of Generative AI (GenAI) on actuarial science, illustrated by four implemented case studies. It begins with a historical overview of AI, tracing its evolution from early neural networks to modern GenAI technologies. The first case study shows how Large Language Models (LLMs) improve claims cost prediction by deriving significant features from unstructured textual data, significantly reducing prediction errors in the underlying machine learning task. In the second case study, we explore the automation of market comparisons using the GenAI concept of Retrieval-Augmented Generation to identify and process relevant information from documents. A third case study highlights the capabilities of fine-tuned vision-enabled LLMs in classifying car damage types and extracting contextual information. The fourth case study presents a multi-agent system that autonomously analyzes data from a given dataset and generates a corresponding report detailing the key findings. In addition to these case studies, we outline further potential applications of GenAI in the insurance industry, such as the automation of claims processing and fraud detection, and the verification of document compliance with internal or external policies. Finally, we discuss challenges and considerations associated with the use of GenAI, covering regulatory issues, ethical concerns, and technical limitations, among others. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.18942 |
| By: | Marion Davin (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Dimitri Dubois (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Katrin Erdlenbruch (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Marc Willinger (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Experimenting with dynamic games raises issues about implementing discounting in experiments. Theoretical rational decision-makers evaluate payoff streams by converting them to a reference period, often "time zero." In experiments, subjects can adapt their strategy continuously. We explore individual behavior in a dynamic resource extraction experiment with two treatments: "z-discounting" (evaluating gains at time zero) and "p-discounting" (evaluating gains in present-time equivalents). Contrary to theoretical predictions, our data shows a significant positive treatment effect, indicating more substantial extraction under p-discounting. This challenges the theoretical model and prompts discussion on methodological considerations for discounting in laboratory settings. |
| Keywords: | laboratory experiment, time consistency, continuous time, discounting, dynamic optimization |
| Date: | 2025–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05234840 |
| By: | Adar, Sinem; Aksoy, Hürcan Aslı; Ålander, Minna; Bueno, Alberto; Chiriatti, Alessia; Dimou, Antonia; Levin, Paul T.; Monceau, Nicolas; Seufert, Günter; Soler, Eduard; Vorotnyuk, Maryna; Wasilewski, Karol |
| Abstract: | Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked the start of a prolonged confrontation between Moscow and Europe - one that is fundamentally reshaping the parameters of European security. The return of Donald Trump to the White House and his stated intent to quickly end the war in Ukraine and put pressure on the European allies including Ukraine to assume greater responsibility for their security is a second critical inflection point. In this rapidly evolving security landscape, Europe faces the dual challenge of ensuring the long-term security of Ukraine, the Baltic states and the Black Sea region and strengthening the European Union's defence and military capabilities. Turkey has a strategically significant, albeit politically contentious role to play within both contexts. What kind of an alignment might there be between the EU and Turkey, given that Ankara is simultaneously a partner, competitor, rival and even threat to EU member states? For its part, the European Union should adopt a gradual, pragmatic and interest driven approach to Turkey's integration into the changing European security architecture. It should aim to reinforce the role of Europe - including Turkey - as a strategic and capable security actor while making clear that enhanced defence cooperation with Ankara and Turkey's stalled EU accession process are two separate issues. |
| Keywords: | European Union, EU, Turkey, Poland, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Germany, France, Greece, European security, European security architecture, EU's defence and military capabilities, NATO, Nato, NATO's eastern flank, NATO's southern flank, war in Ukraine, security of Ukraine, Russia, USA, Donald Trump, Black Sea region, Turkey's EU accession process, defence and security cooperation with Turkey, European Council, European Commission, European Parliament |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:324892 |
| By: | Bouvard, Matthieu; Jullien, Bruno |
| Abstract: | We consider the price-cap regulation of a monopolistic network operator when the regulator has limited commitment. Operating the network requires xed investments and the regulator has the opportunity to unilaterally revise the price cap at random times. When the regulator maximizes consumer surplus, he has an incentive to lower the price cap once the operator's xed investments are sunk. This hold-up problem gives rise to two types of ineciencies. In one type of equilibrium, the operator breaks even but strategically under-invests to induce the regulator to maintain the price cap. In another type of equilibrium the operator makes strictly positive prots and periods of high investment and high prices are followed by periods of low prices and capacity decline. Overall, the model suggests that the regulator's lack of commitment limits the deployment of network infrastructures. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130871 |
| By: | Josué Mendoza (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias) |
| Abstract: | Este documento analiza cómo la inclusión financiera de los padres influye en los comportamientos financieros de sus hijos y en la movilidad social en México. Con base en los datos de la Encuesta ESRU de Movilidad Social en México 2023 (ESRU-EMOVI 2023), que tienen representatividad nacional, se observa que tener padres que contaban con al menos un producto financiero formal (por ejemplo, de ahorro o crédito) se asocia con una mayor inclusión financiera y niveles más altos de educación financiera entre la generación siguiente. Sin embargo, la persistencia de diferencias socioeconómicas y de género indica que la mejora en el acceso a los productos financieros por sí sola no puede eliminar plenamente las desigualdades estructurales. Mediante el uso de matrices de movilidad social, regresiones rango-rango y una descomposición de la desigualdad de oportunidades, se muestra además que los hijos de padres que tuvieron inclusión financiera presentan menos probabilidades de permanecer en la parte más baja de la distribución de recursos económicos y tienden a alcanzar posiciones más altas en general. Este análisis de la desigualdad de oportunidades indica que la inclusión financiera de los padres representa alrededor del 16 % de la desigualdad en los resultados socioeconómicos de sus hijos, lo que la convierte en una vía relevante de ventaja intergeneracional. En conjunto, las conclusiones subrayan la importancia tanto de ampliar la inclusión financiera como de complementarla con intervenciones más profundas, como, por ejemplo, iniciativas para fomentar la educación financiera y abordar las desventajas estructurales arraigadas para impulsar una movilidad social más equitativa en los países en desarrollo. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auk:ecosoc:2025_5 |
| By: | Koichiro Kamada (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy from the perspective of surprise observed in the foreign exchange market and investigates the potential of central bank’s surprising announcement as a policy tool to change people’s deflationary mindset. We propose a surprise measure that is based on the daily candlestick-chart data on the yen-dollar exchange rate and identify surprise that occurred in the Tokyo and New York markets. Using the identified surprise, we evaluate monetary policies of BOJ governors and compare them with those of Fed chairs. We present statistical evidence that shows that under the command of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the BOJ was strongly dependent on surprise policy in the course of the quantitative and qualitative monetary easing. We also show that the surprise generated during the Kuroda term succeeded in raising the trend inflation rate, but failed to steepen the slope of the Phillips curve and to enhance the pass-through of the foreign exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | deflationary mindset, monetary policy surprise, exchange rate, candlestick chart, trend inflation |
| JEL: | C54 C58 E52 E58 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2025-015 |
| By: | Coppens, Léo; Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank |
| Abstract: | We analyse the large and diverse literature on technical change in integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change, with a view to understanding how different representations of technical change affect optimal climate policy. We first solve an analytical IAM that features several models of technical change from the literature, including exogenous technical change in abatement technologies, exogenous decarbonisation of the economy, endogenous technical change via learning-by-doing, and endogenous technical change via R&D (in particular, directed technical change). We show how these models of technical change impact optimal carbon prices, emissions and temperatures in often quite different ways. We then survey how technical change is currently represented in the main quantitative IAMs used to inform policy, demonstrating that a range of approaches are used. Exogenous technical change in abatement technologies and learning-by-doing are most popular, although the latter mechanism is only partially endogenous in some models. We go on to quantify technical change in these policy models using structural estimation, and simulate our analytical IAM numerically, assessing the effect of technical change on optimal climate policy. We find large quantitative effects of technical change and large quantitative differences between different representations of technical change, both under cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness objectives. |
| Keywords: | climate change; cost-benefit analysis; directed technical change; induced innovation; integrated assessment models; learning-by-doing; technical change |
| JEL: | C61 O30 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129025 |
| By: | Peiyun Jiang; Yoshimasa Uematsu; Takashi Yamagata |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the asymptotic bias of the factor-augmented regression estimator and its reduction, which is augmented by the $r$ factors extracted from a large number of $N$ variables with $T$ observations. In particular, we consider general weak latent factor models with $r$ signal eigenvalues that may diverge at different rates, $N^{\alpha _{k}}$, $0 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.02066 |
| By: | Birhanu, Birhanu Zemadim; Haileslassie, Amare; Dirwai, Tinashe; Gebrezgabher, Solomie; Akpoti, Komlavi; Osei-Amponsah, Charity; Cofie, Olufunke; Hafeez, Mohsin; Smith, Mark |
| Abstract: | Water management presents significant challenges in Africa due to problems that link food security, poverty, ecosystem degradation, population growth, urbanization, and climate change, each influencing the other. Central to this is the challenge of irrigation development, including inadequate infrastructure, poor operational and maintenance practices, and limited access to innovative solutions in public sector-led schemes. The need for large-scale irrigation infrastructure in Africa persists and is likely to increase in the coming decades. In most cases, the actual size of state-led irrigable land realized has been significantly smaller than planned, resulting in smaller plot allocations than theoretically thought possible. This has negatively impacted poverty alleviation and food security efforts, where farmer-led irrigation development (FLID) is only beginning to emerge. Significant areas with irrigation infrastructure are only discontinuously cultivated in most places, while others are permanently abandoned. Many irrigation schemes continue to operate below capacity due to inadequate operation and maintenance frameworks, misaligned institutional mandates, and limited farmer engagement. In transboundary cases, documented evidence suggests investing in a win-win regional policy approach to foster cooperation and integration at the national scale across economic communities. If implemented successfully, this effort will increase and enhance opportunities for developing cascaded irrigation systems and realizing irrigation potential at multiple scales—across formal and informal irrigation subsectors. Addressing Africa’s irrigation development and water management crises requires an integrated approach that combines technological innovation, robust policy reforms, and farmer-led or community-driven water stewardship, with a focus on inclusion to build resilience against the impacts of climate variability. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Climate Change |
| Date: | 2025–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iwmirp:369083 |
| By: | Datta-Roy, Anirban |
| Abstract: | Mountain communities in the eastern Himalayas are being subjected to rapid developmental pressures that threaten to disrupt their traditional livelihoods and culture. Ecotourism is seen as a solution towards balancing development and environmental conservation. I investigate the potential for effective ecotourism initiatives and alternative livelihood options that cause minimum damage to the local environment and promote greater understanding of indigenous cultures among tourists from across the world. I identify four major activities that include nature based tourism, homestays, trekking and sale of handicrafts and other locally made items. To understand the challenges involved in implementing some of these initiatives, I also visited successful sites in Sikkim and West Bengal to study their best practices. The complexities of each activity and the potential challenges uncovered through this study demonstrate the need for detailed field research on ecotourism potential before their actual implementation. |
| Date: | 2025–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e9kz7_v1 |
| By: | Catalina Posada-Borrero (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Driss Ezzine-De-Blas (UPR Forêts et Sociétés - Forêts et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Emmanuelle Lavaine (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Sébastien Roussel (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the preferences of smallholder farmers residing in the agricultural frontier of the Colombia Amazon's Forest, specifically in the department of Guaviare, regarding interventions aimed at promoting the adoption of sustainable land-use systems. We focus on the transition from extensive livestock systems to sustainable livestock systems and agroforestry systems. The adoption of silvopastoral systems presents a significant opportunity for sustainable development, offering land-saving advantages that can be leveraged by programs to encourage other sustainable value chains, such as timber in agroforestry systems. Through a discrete choice experiment, we examine farmer preferences concerning land allocation, cash bonuses for permanence, and technical assistance. Additionally, we assess how socioeconomic factors influence farmers' decision-making in participating in such programs. Our findings indicate that while farmers exhibit a preference for allocating land to silvopastoral systems over agroforestry, they also show considerable interest in interventions involving a small proportion of timber in agroforestry systems. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that permanence bonuses tied to individual effort can enhance participation, while collective goals may hinder it. |
| Keywords: | Discrete choice experiment : Incentive programs, Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES), Silvopastoral systems (SPS), Agroforestry, Cash bonus, Colombia, Guaviare |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05234900 |
| By: | Ziaoddini, Kajwan |
| Abstract: | Few visitors can leave Sanandaj, in Iran’s Kurdistan province, without encountering assertions that it is “The City of Music.” This scene, however, did not exist before 2019, when the city joined the UNESCO Creative Cities Network (UCCN) in the field of music. Since then, the local UCCN secretariat and the municipality of Sanandaj, have tried both to promote music as a brand for the city and to involve the public and private sectors in integrating culture in urban development plans. In this context, some Lotis—professional musicians who are usually recruited to play in wedding ceremonies—have made the streets their new performance venue. After the pandemic deprived them of their usual livelihoods performing at weddings, they began performing on pedestrian thoroughfares and in other public, high-traffic locations. These performance settings would seem to align perfectly with the UCCN’s agenda, yet Lotis have also faced continued marginalization by city authorities. Drawing on ethnographic research among Lotis, their audiences, and local authorities, and on documentation from the Sanandaj UCCN secretariat, I argue that although the UCCN’s partnership with Sanandaj has provided Lotis with new professional opportunities, police control on the streets has limited these musicians’ creative abilities they are renowned for, i.e., engaging mere observers in the process of merrymaking. By examining how Lotis have reconciled their practice with the municipality’s strategic plans in Sanandaj, I contribute to ethnomusicological research on interrelations between sound and public space, as well as UNESCO intangible heritage programs. |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:v2b9p_v1 |
| By: | Yang, Xiaoliang (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law); Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | A gravity model of citations for leading economics journals finds that papers with a Chinese first author receive on average 14 % fewer citations after controlling for quality and other attributes. U.S. institutional affiliation mitigates but does not remove the bias, which intensified during the COVID-19 period. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic discrimination; Citation bias; Knowledge diffusion |
| JEL: | J15 J44 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2025/14 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Reaping the post-pandemic tourism boom, Curaçao’s and Sint Maarten’s economies have been expanding strongly, driven by stayover tourists and construction activity. Disinflation broadly continued, with some uptick in Sint Maarten throughout 2024. The Union’s current account deficit remained elevated as rising tourism receipts were offset by construction-related imports. In both countries, the fiscal position remained strong and in compliance with the fiscal rule, and macroeconomic policies are broadly in line with past IMF advice (Annex I). Progress on the landspakket, the structural reform package agreed with the Netherlands in 2020, has recently slowed, with notable exceptions around digitalizing permits. |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/254 |
| By: | Seyhan Sevde Cagiran; Amélie Bourceret (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sophie Drogué (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Agroecology is a sustainable agricultural system based on and respects the ecosystem in which agriculture is practiced and the ecosystem elements within it while promising resilience and sustainability not only to the ecosystem, but also to farmers, consumers and managers, both socially and economically (Wezel et al. 2009, Perfecto et al. 2010). |
| Keywords: | Algeria, Social ecological system, Agroecology |
| Date: | 2024–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05216443 |
| By: | Miller, Anne |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the labour supply and consumer demand equations derived from a utility function created by adding two S-shaped utilities. An S-shaped cardinal utility for a commodity represents the individual’s experience of fulfilment of a need – deprivation (increasing marginal utility (MU)), subsistence (a point of inflection), sufficiency (diminishing MU), and either satiation at finite consumption with the possibility of surfeit, or satiation at infinite consumption. The utilities of commodities fulfilling the same need are weakly separable (multiplicative) and those of two commodities fulfilling different needs are strongly separable (additive). Functional forms are derived from a utility function created by adding two normal distribution functions with satiation at infinity, the parameters of which have meaningful psychological interpretations. The indifference map, demand and Engels curve diagrams are explored. The main outcomes: • Concave- (dysfunctional poverty) and convex-to-the-origin indifference curves are separated by a straight-line indifference curve, (an absolute poverty line). • Budget movements on the indifference curve map reveal: corner solutions and disequilibrium associated with dysfunctional poverty; optimisation occurs elsewhere, even with deprivation in one or other need. • The derived functional forms are functions of only the real wage rate and endowments of unearned consumption. • The derived functional form diagrams display: involuntary unemployment, disjointed curves, sticky wages and prices, wage- and price-elasticity associated with deprivation in a need, inferior normal and inferior-Giffen responses, and envelope curves. • The slope of the straight-line indifference curve, (defined by the relative-intensities-of-need), and its intercept on the endowment axis, play significant and dramatic roles in both Engels diagrams. |
| Keywords: | S-shaped cardinal utility includes increasing marginal utility expressing deprivation; additive utilities represent separate needs; dysfunctional poverty causes involuntary unemployment and disequilibrium; absolute poverty line; sticky wages. |
| JEL: | D11 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125699 |
| By: | Xunkang Tian |
| Abstract: | This study introduces a novel approach for inferring social network structures using Aggregate Relational Data (ARD), addressing the challenge of limited detailed network data availability. By integrating ARD with variational approximation methods, we provide a computationally efficient and cost-effective solution for network analysis. Our methodology demonstrates the potential of ARD to offer insightful approximations of network dynamics, as evidenced by Monte Carlo Simulations. This paper not only showcases the utility of ARD in social network inference but also opens avenues for future research in enhancing estimation precision and exploring diverse network datasets. Through this work, we contribute to the field of network analysis by offering an alternative strategy for understanding complex social networks with constrained data. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.01503 |
| By: | Herrade Igersheim (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | As Amadae observed in her 2003 Rationalizing Capitalist Democracy, "the priority dispute between Black and Arrow over the mathematical analysis of election problems was bitter and unresolved." Arrow's 1951 Social Choice and Individual Values would subsequently overshadow Black's contributions. Based on a study of Black's, Tullock's, and Coase's papers (housed at the University of Glasgow, Hoover Archives -Stanford University, and the University of Chicago respectively), the present article aims to provide a historical reconstruction of the dispute between the two authors and to show its implications for Black's scientific and personal life. The article also brings to light the strong assistance that Black received from American researchers (Coase, Tullock, Riker) from the 1960s onwards, before finally being recognized as the "founding father" of public choice. |
| Keywords: | Gordon Tullock, Duncan Black, Kenneth arrow, Public choice |
| Date: | 2025–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05230470 |
| By: | Seyhan Sevde Cagiran (CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Amélie Bourceret (CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sophie Drogué (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | The main challenge facing the agricultural landscapes of the Mediterranean and North African regions is not only climate change, but also the degradation of ecosystem services and the loss of biodiversity. The aim of this study is to investigate the adoption of agroecology as a solution to these problems by farmers in a case study in Algeria. To begin with, we determine the farmers' position in the agricultural system and their relationship with other components of the system using Ostrom's Social-Ecological System framework (SESF) (2009). In this step, we also identify the factors that affect farmers' decision-making processes. Subsequently, we enhance an existing bio-economic model with the outcomes of the previous step in order to assess farmer's adoption to agroecology. Finally, using bio-economic model we will determine policy scenarios to accelerate of agroecological transition. |
| Keywords: | Bioeconomic model, Agroecology, North Africa |
| Date: | 2024–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05216202 |
| By: | Benjamin S. Manning; John J. Horton |
| Abstract: | Useful social science theories predict behavior across settings. However, applying a theory to make predictions in new settings is challenging: rarely can it be done without ad hoc modifications to account for setting-specific factors. We argue that modern AI agents offer an alternative for applying theory to novel settings, requiring minimal or no modifications. We present an approach for building such "general" agents that use theory-grounded natural language instructions, existing empirical data, and knowledge acquired by the underlying AI during training. To demonstrate the approach in settings where no data from that data-generating process exists--as is often the case in applied prediction problems--we design a highly heterogeneous population of 883, 320 novel games. AI agents are constructed using human data from a small set of conceptually related, but structurally distinct "seed" games. In preregistered experiments, on average, agents predict human play better than (i) game-theoretic equilibria and (ii) out-of-the-box agents in a random sample of 1, 500 games from the population. For a small set of separate novel games, these simulations predict responses from a new sample of human subjects better even than the most plausibly relevant published human data. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.17407 |
| By: | Tubagus Aryandi Gunawan; Hongxi Luo; Chris Greig; Eric D. Larson |
| Abstract: | The chemicals industry accounts for about 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions today and is among the most difficult industries to abate. We model decarbonization pathways for the most energy-intensive segment of the industry, the production of basic chemicals: olefins, aromatics, methanol, ammonia, and chlor-alkali. Unlike most prior pathways studies, we apply a scenario-analysis approach that recognizes the central role of corporate investment decision making for capital-intensive industries, under highly uncertain long-term future investment environments. We vary the average pace of decarbonization capital allocation allowed under plausible alternative future world contexts and construct least-cost decarbonization timelines by modeling abatement projects individually across more than 2, 600 production facilities located in four major producing regions. The timeline for deeply decarbonizing production varies by chemical and region but depends importantly on the investment environment context. In the best-of-all environments, to deeply decarbonize production, annual average capital spending for abatement for the next two to three decades will need to be greater than (and in addition to) historical "business-as-usual" investments, and cumulative investment in abatement projects would exceed $1 trillion. In futures where key drivers constrain investment appetites, timelines for decarbonizing the industry extend well into the second half of the century. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.08279 |
| By: | Francis J. DiTraglia; Laura Liu |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a simple, novel, and fully-Bayesian approach for causal inference in partially linear models with high-dimensional control variables. Off-the-shelf machine learning methods can introduce biases in the causal parameter known as regularization-induced confounding. To address this, we propose a Bayesian Double Machine Learning (BDML) method, which modifies a standard Bayesian multivariate regression model and recovers the causal effect of interest from the reduced-form covariance matrix. Our BDML is related to the burgeoning frequentist literature on DML while addressing its limitations in finite-sample inference. Moreover, the BDML is based on a fully generative probability model in the DML context, adhering to the likelihood principle. We show that in high dimensional setups the naive estimator implicitly assumes no selection on observables--unlike our BDML. The BDML exhibits lower asymptotic bias and achieves asymptotic normality and semiparametric efficiency as established by a Bernstein-von Mises theorem, thereby ensuring robustness to misspecification. In simulations, our BDML achieves lower RMSE, better frequentist coverage, and shorter confidence interval width than alternatives from the literature, both Bayesian and frequentist. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.12688 |
| By: | Nektarios Aslanidis; Aurelio Bariviera; George Kapetanios; Vasilis Sarafidis |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes realized return behavior across a broad set of crypto assets by estimating heterogeneous exposures to idiosyncratic and systematic risk. A key challenge arises from the latent nature of broader economy-wide risk sources: macro-financial proxies are unavailable at high-frequencies, while the abundance of low-frequency candidates offers limited guidance on empirical relevance. To address this, we develop a two-stage ``divide-and-conquer'' approach. The first stage estimates exposures to high-frequency idiosyncratic and market risk only, using asset-level IV regressions. The second stage identifies latent economy-wide factors by extracting the leading principal component from the model residuals and mapping it to lower-frequency macro-financial uncertainty and sentiment-based indicators via high-dimensional variable selection. Structured patterns of heterogeneity in exposures are uncovered using Mean Group estimators across asset categories. The method is applied to a broad sample of crypto assets, covering more than 80% of total market capitalization. We document short-term mean reversion and significant average exposures to idiosyncratic volatility and illiquidity. Green and DeFi assets are, on average, more exposed to market-level and economy-wide risk than their non-Green and non-DeFi counterparts. By contrast, stablecoins are less exposed to idiosyncratic, market-level, and economy-wide risk factors relative to non-stablecoins. At a conceptual level, our study develops a coherent framework for isolating distinct layers of risk in crypto markets. Empirically, it sheds light on how return sensitivities vary across digital asset categories -- insights that are important for both portfolio design and regulatory oversight. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.21100 |
| By: | Richard Cole; Pranav Jangir |
| Abstract: | In real-world settings of the Deferred Acceptance stable matching algorithm, such as the American medical residency match (NRMP), school choice programs, and various national university entrance systems, candidates need to decide which programs to list. In many of these settings there is an initial phase of interviews or information gathering which affect the preferences on one or both sides. We ask: which interviews should candidates seek? We study this question in a model, introduced by Lee (2016) and modified by Allman and Ashlagi (2023), with preferences based on correlated cardinal utilities. We describe a distributed, low-communication strategy for the doctors and students, which lead to non-match rates of $e^{(-\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{k}))}$ in the residency setting and $e^{(-\widetilde{O}(k))}$ in the school-choice setting, where $k$ is the number of interviews per doctor in the first setting, and the number of proposals per student in the second setting; these bounds do not apply to the agents with the lowest public ratings, the bottommost agents, who may not fare as well. We also obtain bounds on the expected utilities each non-bottommost agent obtains. These results are parameterized by the capacity of the hospital programs and schools. Larger capacities improve the outcome for the hospitals and schools, but don't significantly affect the outcomes of the doctors or students. Finally, in the school choice setting we obtain an $\epsilon$-Nash type equilibrium for the students apart from the bottommost ones; importantly, the equilibrium holds regardless of the actions of the bottommost students. We also discuss to what extent this result extends to the residency setting. We complement our theoretical results with an experimental study that shows the asymptotic results hold for real-world values of $n$. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.19345 |
| By: | D'Errico, Michele; Yasseri, Taha |
| Abstract: | Conspiracy theories are widespread, varied, and socially consequential. While research has identified psychological and social correlates of conspiracy endorsement, debate continues over whether there is a general predisposition toward conspiratorial thinking and whether it should be treated as pathological. We argue that dominant theoretical efforts overlook the cultural dynamics that sustain conspiratorial worldviews. By reviewing empirical and philosophical work, we propose that conspiracy theories are best understood as culturally evolved epistemologies—frameworks that can prescribe what counts as evidence, who is trustworthy, and how to handle disconfirmation. Drawing on cultural evolutionary theory and network psychometrics, we show how this perspective can explain the persistence of conspiracy subcultures, their diversity, and their integration with broader belief systems. Finally, we discuss how artificial intelligence can accelerate the spread of conspiracy narratives, increasingly become the subject of new conspiracy theories, and at the same time offer novel tools for mapping, analyzing, and countering them. |
| Date: | 2025–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4wsjv_v1 |
| By: | Fulvia Marotta; Maria Sole Pagliari; Jasper de Winter |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel media-based index of climate policy uncertainty – the CPU-Concern index – that captures both the prevalence of climate policy uncertainty and the intensity of public concern. Using data from the Netherlands, a setting charac- terized by ambitious climate targets and persistent credibility challenges, we document how policy announcements shape perceived uncertainty through signaling effects. The CPU-Concern index rises during contested policy debates and declines following for- mal ratification, with heterogeneous responses depending on the policy’s ambition and credibility. We show that climate policy uncertainty primarily transmits through shifts in business and consumer sentiment, affecting stock market prices, investments and real activity. Furthermore, negative CPU shocks generate more persistent economic drag than positive ones, while the opposite holds true for nominal variables, thus highlighting asymmetries in how uncertainty shapes behavior and potential policy reactions. Our findings underscore the importance of credible and transparent policy communication in reducing uncertainty and supporting the low-carbon transition. |
| Keywords: | Climate policy uncertainty; text-based measures; policy signaling; media- based indicators; expectation formation; macroeconomic effects |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 E66 D84 E32 C43 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:840 |
| By: | Xiaohong Chen; Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna; Haitian Xie |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates efficient Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Event Study (ES) estimation using short panel data sets within the heterogeneous treatment effect framework, free from parametric functional form assumptions and allowing for variation in treatment timing. We provide an equivalent characterization of the DiD potential outcome model using sequential conditional moment restrictions on observables, which shows that the DiD identification assumptions typically imply nonparametric overidentification restrictions. We derive the semiparametric efficient influence function (EIF) in closed form for DiD and ES causal parameters under commonly imposed parallel trends assumptions. The EIF is automatically Neyman orthogonal and yields the smallest variance among all asymptotically normal, regular estimators of the DiD and ES parameters. Leveraging the EIF, we propose simple-to-compute efficient estimators. Our results highlight how to optimally explore different pre-treatment periods and comparison groups to obtain the tightest (asymptotic) confidence intervals, offering practical tools for improving inference in modern DiD and ES applications even in small samples. Calibrated simulations and an empirical application demonstrate substantial precision gains of our efficient estimators in finite samples. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.17729 |
| By: | Minh Phuong Nguyen ("Research Group Innovation for Sustainable and Responsible Mining (ISRM), Hanoi University of Mining and Geology, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam" Author-2-Name: Nga Nguyen Author-2-Workplace-Name: Research Group Innovation for Sustainable and Responsible Mining (ISRM), Hanoi University of Mining and Geology, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - This study analyzes the development of renewable energy in ASEAN and delves into specific promotion instruments for solar energy in Vietnam. Method Cost-benefit analysis was conducted to compare economic benefits with investment and operating costs. Methodology - Vietnam was entering a period of transformation in the field of renewable energy, especially solar energy (installed solar power capacity was 16, 000 MW in 2023, intending to increase to 25, 320 MW in 2030). Compared to ASEAN countries with many similarities in developing this industry, such as Indonesia (solar power capacity was 2, 100 MW in 2023), Vietnam faced an excellent opportunity to surpass. Findings - The results of the study show that government instruments had different levels of influence on various aspects, and the most influential were the FIT tariff (243.75 points) and tax exemption (49.71 points). Novelty - Although solar energy in Vietnam is developing rapidly, it is still necessary to improve and develop reasonable allocation strategies for supporting policies and incentive mechanisms to optimize economic benefits. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Policy Instruments, Solar Energy, Renewable Energy, Energy Transition, Sustainable Development, Sustainability Goals, FIT. |
| JEL: | E16 E27 O11 O13 O32 |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber257 |
| By: | Sergio Bianchi; Daniele Angelini; Massimiliano Frezza; Augusto Pianese |
| Abstract: | Volatility, as a primary indicator of financial risk, forms the foundation of classical frameworks such as Markowitz's Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, its conventional use rests on assumptions-most notably, the Markovian nature of price dynamics-that often fail to reflect key empirical characteristics of financial markets. Fractional stochastic volatility models expose these limitations by demonstrating that volatility alone is insufficient to capture the full structure of return dispersion. In this context, we propose pointwise regularity, measured via the Hurst-Holder exponent, as a complementary metric of financial risk. This measure quantifies local deviations from martingale behavior, enabling a more nuanced assessment of market inefficiencies and the mechanisms by which equilibrium is restored. By accounting not only for the magnitude but also for the nature of randomness, this framework bridges the conceptual divide between efficient market theory and behavioral finance. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.11649 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Emrehan Aktug; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | We conducted a survey of Turkish firms, using randomized treatments to provide varied information about inflation in a high-inflation environment. By matching the survey data with administrative firm-level data on employment, sales, credit, and foreign exchange transactions, we explore the impact of exogenous variations in inflation expectations on firms’ behavior, borrowing decisions, and expectations. Our findings are summarized in seven facts: (i) information treatments are effective at generating exogenous variation in inflation expectations, even when inflation is high; (ii) the pass-through to firms’ own price, wage, and cost expectations is strong, reaching up to 60%; (iii) firms adopt a supply-side interpretation of inflation—lower inflation expectations make them more optimistic; (iv) firms with lower inflation expectations decrease credit demand by approximately 3% for a 1 percentage point decline in expected inflation, shifting from long-term to short-term loans to avoid higher perceived costs; (v) they dollarize their liabilities by increasing their share of FX-denominated debt; (vi) they de-dollarize their assets by decreasing their net foreign currency holdings; and (vii) they increase their real activity, leading to higher employment and sales, and lower inventory. |
| Keywords: | Expectations, Firms, RCT, High inflation, Macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2512 |
| By: | Baute, Sharon; Bellani, Luna; Hecht, Katharina |
| Abstract: | Wealth is increasingly unequally distributed in many countries. This study examines public perceptions of wealth deservingness and preferences for taxing the wealth of the rich, focusing on how opinions vary based on the amount, use, and origin of wealth. Drawing on an original vignette experiment conducted in Germany (n=6, 018), our results show a consistent pattern: as wealth increases, its perceived deservingness declines, while support for taxation rises. Similarly, spending on luxury items is seen as less deserving than philanthropic or nonprofit investments, leading to greater support for taxing the wealth of luxury spending rich people. However, wealth obtained through inheritance presents a puzzling exception: although it is perceived as the least deserving compared to wealth gained through entrepreneurship or management, this does not translate into a stronger preference for taxing inheritors over managers. These findings, which hold across different income and wealth groups as well as political affiliations, highlight the complex and sometimes contradictory public attitudes toward the rich and the taxation of their wealth. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Redistribution, Richness, Survey experiment, Wealth taxation |
| JEL: | D3 D6 H2 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:324862 |
| By: | Biagio Bossone |
| Abstract: | This article extends the analytical framework developed in forthcoming The Critical Role of ‘Conventional Beliefs’ in Economics (Bossone, 2026 forthcoming) by applying it to the concept of the natural interest rate, or r^*. It shows that this is not pinned down by preferences and technology, but rather a belief-contingent variable, shaped by prevailing expectations regimes. When agents coordinate around pessimistic views of future demand or policy ineffectiveness, the economy can settle into rational low-growth, low-rate equilibria, and vice versa when their views are optimistic. These belief-driven dynamics generate multiple equilibria, endogenous liquidity traps, and hysteresis, even in the absence of structural frictions. As macroeconomic parameters become belief-sensitive, traditional filtering methods fail to identify r^* reliably across regimes, leading to systematic policy miscalibration. The coexistence of multiple belief-consistent natural rates implies a new form of policy multiplicity: rules coherent within one belief regime may be inconsistent with another. These results challenge the structural interpretation of r^*and call for credibility-sensitive policy frameworks capable of coordinating expectations in belief-dependent environments. |
| Keywords: | Natural interest rate (r-star); Belief regime; Shock persistence; Policy multiplicity; Equilibria |
| JEL: | D84 E32 E43 E52 E61 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2520 |
| By: | Richard S. J. Tol |
| Abstract: | A large database of published model results is used to estimate the distribution of the social cost of carbon as a function of the underlying assumptions. The literature on the social cost of carbon deviates in its assumptions from the literatures on the impacts of climate change, discounting, and risk aversion. The proposed meta-emulator corrects this. The social cost of carbon is higher than reported in the literature. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.01804 |
| By: | Narcisa Ispas (Bucharest University, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The fear of death is a central theme in existentialism, psychology, and theology, profoundly influencing human life. This article examines the fear of death from an existentialist perspective, incorporating the contributions of thinkers such as Kierkegaard, Heidegger, Sartre, Frankl, and Yalom. It also explores existential psychotherapy approaches and the role of spirituality in managing existential anxiety. Finally, the study discusses the impact of modern society on the perception of death, including distancing from death through technology and medical practices. The research highlights the importance of consciously confronting mortality to live an authentic and meaningful life. |
| Keywords: | Fear of Death, Existential Anxiety, Existential Psychotherapy, Viktor Frankl, Irvin Yalom, Death and Spirituality, Existentialist Philosophy, Modern Society and Death |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0516 |
| By: | Hamza Hanbali |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the benefits of incorporating diversification effects into the pricing process of insurance policies from two different business lines. The paper shows that, for the same risk reduction, insurers pricing policies jointly can have a competitive advantage over those pricing them separately. However, the choice of competitiveness constrains the underwriting flexibility of joint pricers. The paper goes a step further by modeling explicitly the relationship between premiums and the number of customers in each line. Using the total collected premiums as a criterion to compare the competing strategies, the paper provides conditions for the optimal pricing decision based on policyholders' sensitivity to price discounts. The results are illustrated for a portfolio of annuities and assurances. Further, using non-life data from the Brazilian insurance market, an empirical exploration shows that most pairs satisfy the condition for being priced jointly, even when pairwise correlations are high. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.13409 |
| By: | Md Twfiqur Rahman |
| Abstract: | Leveraging Tennessee's 2005 Medicaid contraction, I study the impact of losing public health insurance on body weight and relevant health behaviors. Using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from 1997 to 2010, I estimate synthetic difference-in-differences models. The estimates suggest that the reform increased Body Mass Index by 0.38 points and the overweight or obesity prevalence (BMI$\geq$25) by $\sim$4\% among Tennessean childless adults. My findings -- a 21\% increase in the share of childless adults reporting ``poor'' health status (the lowest level on the five-point scale), a reduction in Medicaid-reimbursed utilization of pain and anti-inflammatory medications, and a reduction in participation in moderate physical activities -- suggest that worsening unmanaged health conditions may be a key pathway through which coverage loss affected weight gain. Additionally, my analysis offers practical guidance for conducting robust inference in single treated cluster settings with limited pre-treatment data. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.19155 |
| By: | Christian Berger; Michael Soder |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clr:mwugar:267 |
| By: | Harrison Katz; Robert E. Weiss |
| Abstract: | High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models offer a versatile framework for multivariate time series analysis, yet face critical challenges from over-parameterization and uncertain lag order. In this paper, we systematically compare three Bayesian shrinkage priors (horseshoe, lasso, and normal) and two frequentist regularization approaches (ridge and nonparametric shrinkage) under three carefully crafted simulation scenarios. These scenarios encompass (i) overfitting in a low-dimensional setting, (ii) sparse high-dimensional processes, and (iii) a combined scenario where both large dimension and overfitting complicate inference. We evaluate each method in quality of parameter estimation (root mean squared error, coverage, and interval length) and out-of-sample forecasting (one-step-ahead forecast RMSE). Our findings show that local-global Bayesian methods, particularly the horseshoe, dominate in maintaining accurate coverage and minimizing parameter error, even when the model is heavily over-parameterized. Frequentist ridge often yields competitive point forecasts but underestimates uncertainty, leading to sub-nominal coverage. A real-data application using macroeconomic variables from Canada illustrates how these methods perform in practice, reinforcing the advantages of local-global priors in stabilizing inference when dimension or lag order is inflated. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.05489 |
| By: | Glackin, Stephen; Rowley, Steven; Kollmann, Trevor; Veeroja, Piret |
| Abstract: | What this research is about: this research explores concentrations and density of social housing relative to local amenities and services across Australia. This provides an overview of the distribution, access and value of social housing stock. The research also develops an Amenity Index. This tool checks whether social housing has good access to local amenities. Why this research is important: social housing is often located in areas with lower amenity. High amenity areas have good access to public transport, schools, medical services, employment opportunities and leisure activities. Many social housing tenants don't have cars. Easy access to services is very important for them. This is especially true for people with complex needs who need medical care and other support services. |
| Date: | 2025–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zrgvb_v1 |
| By: | Jingyuan Li; Zhou Lin |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces Flexible First-Order Stochastic Dominance (FFSD), a mathematically rigorous framework that formalizes Herbert Simon's concept of bounded rationality using the Lean 4 theorem prover. We develop machine-verified proofs demonstrating that FFSD bridges classical expected utility theory with Simon's satisficing behavior through parameterized tolerance thresholds. Our approach yields several key results: (1) a critical threshold $\varepsilon |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.07052 |
| By: | Arthur Jacobs; Luca Zamparelli (-) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes automation as the outcome of political choice. Firms substitute capital for labor through automation, which affects productivity and reduces the labor income share. The automation preferred by a household depends on the composition of its income, specifically its relative dependence on capital versus labor. The median voter theorem aggregates these preferences into a political choice of automation. When wealth is more concentrated than labor, a democratic one-person-one-vote regime implements less automation than the output-maximizing competitive equilibrium, while a plutocratic one-dollar-one-vote regime may induce excessive automation. Increasing wealth concentration intensifies under-automation in democracy and over-automation in plutocracy. We further show that, under plausible conditions, the competitive equilibrium entails excessive automation relative to the social welfare optimum. A calibration to U.S. data demonstrates that alternative political regimes can generate quantitatively large shifts in the labor share. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1120 |
| By: | Sagiri Kitao; Michio Suzuki; Tomoaki Yamada |
| Abstract: | This paper examines life-cycle earnings risk and income inequality in Japan using municipal administrative tax records covering 2011–2021. We estimate an agedependent quantile model that decomposes idiosyncratic earnings into persistent and transitory components, allowing persistence to vary nonlinearly with individuals’ positions in the earnings distribution and the size of shocks. We find that persistence is high for shocks consistent with an individual’s earnings history but falls sharply for “reversal” shocks, which may represent career changes. Cross-sectional analysis shows that households pool income effectively: equivalized household income displays lower dispersion and a J-shaped life-cycle inequality profile compared to a monotonically rising profile for individual earnings. However, impulse response analysis reveals that when individuals or households at a given percentile of the persistent component distribution receive either a high or low percentile draw from the innovation distribution, the resulting earnings changes are larger for equivalized household earnings than for the earnings of the household head alone. This indicates that household and individual earnings distributions have distinct dynamic properties, with household-level responses potentially reflecting correlated spousal shocks, joint labor supply decisions, and demographic adjustments. |
| Date: | 2025–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:75 |
| By: | Md. Al-Amin; Muneeb Tahir; Amit Talukder; Abdullah Al Mamun; Md Tanjim Hossain; Nigar Sultana |
| Abstract: | Several noteworthy scenarios emerged in the global textile and fashion supply chains during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The destabilizing influences of a global pandemic and a geographically localized conflict are being acutely noticed in the worldwide fashion and textile supply chains. This work examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russo-Ukraine conflict, Israel-Palestine conflict, and Indo-Pak conflict on supply chains within the textile and fashion industry. This research employed a content analysis method to identify relevant articles and news from sources such as Google Scholar, the Summon database of North Carolina State University, and the scholarly news portal NexisUni. The selected papers, news articles, and reports provide a comprehensive overview of the fashion, textile, and apparel supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, accompanied by discussions from common supply chain perspectives. Disruptions due to COVID-19 include international brands and retailers canceling orders, closures of stores and factories in developing countries, layoffs, and furloughs of workers in both retail stores and supplier factories, the increased prominence of online and e-commerce businesses, the growing importance of automation and digitalization in the fashion supply chain, considerations of sustainability, and the need for a resilient supply chain system to facilitate post-pandemic recovery. In the case of the Russo-Ukraine war, Israel-Palestine war, and Indo-Pak war, the second-order effects of the conflict have had a more significant impact on the textile supply chain than the direct military operations themselves. In addition to these topics, the study delves into the potential strategies for restoring and strengthening the fashion supply chain |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.00207 |
| By: | Patrick Arnold, Marc Möller, Catherine Roux |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty about the value of a contested innovation induces leaders and laggards to update their expectations in opposite directions. We characterize situations in which firms that have obtained an initial advantage are not the most likely to achieve final success. In spite of amplifying a leader’s advantage, greater contest intensity facilitates this effect, challenging the view that laggards require support to remain competitive. |
| Keywords: | innovation contests, learning, competitive balance, leapfrogging |
| JEL: | C72 D82 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2025 |
| By: | Anyfantaki, Sofia (European Central Bank); Blix Grimaldi, Marianna (Financial Stability Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Madeira, Carlos (Bank for International Settlements); Malovana, Simona (Czech National Bank); Papadopoulos, Georgios (Bank of Greece) |
| Abstract: | Climate change poses a major risk to financial stability by affecting sovereign credit risk through transition and physical risks. Using data from 52 developed and developing countries over two decades, the study finds that transition risk leads to higher sovereign yields, especially in developing and high-emission countries post-Paris Agreement. Physical risks, such as temperature anomalies, generally aren’t priced in, but high debt levels amplify yield increases during acute climate events. Medium-term projections show varied sovereign yield responses to different climate disasters, with the effects differing by income level and fiscal space, highlighting the complex financial impact of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate risk; sovereign risk; transition risk; temperature change; natural disasters |
| JEL: | C23 E62 H63 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0453 |
| By: | Hongfa Zi; Zhen Liu |
| Abstract: | Many modern areas have not learned their lessons and often hope for the wisdom of later generations, resulting in them only possessing modern technology and difficult to iterate ancient civilizations. At present, there is no way to tell how we should learn from history and promote the gradual upgrading of civilization. Therefore, we must tell the history of civilization's progress and the means of governance, learn from experience to improve the comprehensive strength and survival ability of civilization, and achieve an optimal solution for the tempering brought by conflicts and the reduction of internal conflicts. Firstly, we must follow the footsteps of history and explore the reasons for the long-term stability of each country in conflict, including providing economic benefits to the people and means of suppressing them; then, use mathematical methods to demonstrate how we can achieve the optimal solution at the current stage. After analysis, we can conclude that the civilization transformed from human plowing to horse plowing can easily suppress the resistance of the people and provide them with the ability to resist; The selection of rulers should consider multiple institutional aspects, such as exams, elections, and drawing lots; Economic development follows a lognormal distribution and can be adjusted by expected value and variance. Using a lognormal distribution with the maximum value to divide equity can adjust the wealth gap. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.00067 |