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on Investment |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt; François Gerard; Lorenzo Lagos; Claire Montialoux |
| Abstract: | How do minimum wages affect informality? We study the near-doubling of the real minimum wage from 2000 to 2009 in Brazil, where 46% of the workforce is informal. Using labor force surveys covering the informal sector, we show the minimum wage exhibits near full passthrough to informal employees working in formal firms, about half of all informal employees. The formal-to-informal reallocation elasticity with respect to the formal-wage is small: -0.28. Our findings illustrate how minimum wages can positively affect living standards for workers thought beyond the reach of labor law, a sizable share of the workforce in developing economies. |
| JEL: | J23 J46 J88 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34445 |
| By: | Javier Vázquez-Grenno (Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB) / Universitat de Barcelona); Attila Lindner (University of College London); Christine Aumayr-Pintar (Eurofound); Carlos Vacas Soriano (Eurofound); Ferran Elias (University of Girona); Marc Riudavets-Barcons (University of Helsinki & Helsinki Graduated School of Economics) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:report:ieb_report_1_2025 |
| By: | José María Durán-Cabré (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Alejandro Esteller-Moré (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Christos Kotsogiannis (Tax Administration Research Centre (TARC), University of Exeter Business School & CESIfo); Luca Salvadori (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona & BSE & IEB & Tax Administration Research Centre (TARC), University of Exeter Business School) |
| Abstract: | Enforcing wealth tax compliance among high-net-worth individuals is particularly challenging. Using administrative data on the Net Wealth Tax for Catalan taxpayers over the 2011–2020 period, this paper evaluates the impact of audits on voluntary compliance. The evidence suggests that wealth tax audits do enhance compliance, but the impact is short-lived — and driven by taxpayers rebalancing their tax evasion and avoidance responses. On the institutional side, the results indicate that Spain’s overlapping tax audit mandates can create coordination frictions that reduce the efficiency and effectiveness of audit-based enforcement of the New Wealth Tax. Effective enforcement depends not only on robust audit strategies, but also on coherent institutional design and sound tax policy. |
| Keywords: | Tax Audit Evaluation; Overlapping Tax Audit Mandates; Wealth Tax; Tax Evasion; Tax Compliance |
| JEL: | H26 D31 O17 D02 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-15 |
| By: | Braulio Britos; Manuel A. Hernandez; Danilo Trupkin |
| Abstract: | International migration is a recurrent phenomenon that has grown rapidly over the past two decades. This paper examines the role of agricultural distortions in shaping emigration patterns and influencing productivity and welfare in developing countries, using Guatemala as a case study. We develop a theoretical framework where household members can work in agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate, and calibrate the model combining detailed micro and aggregate data. Our model identifies two key channels through which agricultural distortions affect migration and productivity: a first channel where distortions increase emigration among more productive agents, reducing aggregate productivity, and a second channel where distortions drive factor misallocation, lowering incomes and increasing overall emigration. Simulations suggest that, reducing distortions in the agricultural sector to the most efficient department in each region would lower the emigrant share by 2.3 percentage points, primarily among more productive workers. Lower distortions would similarly boost aggregate agricultural productivity by 30.1% and raise welfare by 3.4%. An analysis at the sub-national level reveals that high-distortion areas are more isolated and exhibit less financial penetration and government presence. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural distortions; Emigration; Labor mobility; Productivity; Welfare |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/233 |
| By: | Antoni, Manfred (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Dollmann, Jörg (MZES); Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weißmann, Markus (MZES) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the linked data of the Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Survey in Four European Countries - Germany Sample with administrative data of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Forschungsdatenzentrum ; Datensatzbeschreibung ; IAB-Datensatz Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Survey in Four European Countries - Germany verknüpft mit administrativen Daten des IAB ; 10.5164/IAB.CILS4EU-DE-ADIAB7523.de.en.v1 |
| Date: | 2025–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202505(en) |
| By: | Zerres, Stephanie; Zerres, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Die Europäische Union besteht heute aus 27 Mitgliedstaaten. Ihr Recht, das im Wesentlichen auf Verträgen zwischen diesen Mitgliedstaaten und den von ihr verabschiedeten Rechtsakten beruht, beeinflusst in Deutschland zur Zeit etwa 90% aller Normen des Wirtschaftsrechts. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser großen Bedeutung, gerade auch für ein EU-weites Aktivwerden deutscher Unternehmen, gibt dieser Arbeitsbericht einen einführenden Überblick über die Grundlagen des Rechts der Europäischen Union. |
| Keywords: | Europäische Union, Unternehmen |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ouwpmm:330686 |
| By: | Akyol, Metin; Neugart, Michael; Pichler, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Discrimination of women in the labor market requires appropriate policy interventions. Affirmative action policies typically advocate the introduction of an employment quota uniformly applied to all firms. In a heterogeneous labor market such a policy may yield avoidable welfare losses. We propose a tradable employment quota showing its effects on wages, employment, and welfare in a labor market with search frictions and taste discrimination. A tradable employment quota appears to be a viable alternative yielding superior labor market outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:157991 |
| By: | Handan Kaplan; Kerem Yavuz Arslanli |
| Abstract: | In response to the global acceleration of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, this study repositions EV charging stations as strategic urban real estate assets rather than mere technical infrastructure. It highlights the untapped potential of charging infrastructure to contribute to sustainable urban mobility, spatial efficiency, and real estate value generation when optimally located. Recognizing current limitations in site selection—often driven by technical feasibility alone—the research proposes a location-based, investment-oriented site selection model that integrates urban planning, spatial accessibility, and economic feasibility into a cohesive decision-support framework. Focusing on Istanbul as a case study, the model operates under a fixed investment budget, aiming to identify optimal locations that maximize usage potential and return on investment (ROI). The analytical framework is grounded in the DIKW (Data–Information–Knowledge–Wisdom) hierarchy and applies a four-stage methodology: data collection, spatial analysis, multi-criteria decision-making (AHP, Fuzzy AHP, SWARA), and portfolio-based evaluation. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to process and visualize key indicators, including population density, transportation networks, land values, and existing charging station locations. The study’s criteria are categorized into urban, economic, and environmental dimensions. While energy infrastructure data were limited, the model is designed to be scalable and adaptable for future data integration. Rooted in location theory, Highest and Best Use (HBU) analysis, and portfolio management principles, the model frames EV charging stations as components of a broader urban investment strategy. Ultimately, the research offers a spatially explicit, data-driven tool for public and private stakeholders, facilitating strategic decision-making in EV infrastructure deployment. The model’s flexible structure allows for adaptation across diverse urban contexts, contributing to both economic and spatial sustainability in EV infrastructure planning. |
| Keywords: | EV Charging Stations; Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MDM); Real Estate Investment; site selection |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_292 |
| By: | Sarah Quincy; Chenzi Xu |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run effects of the first wave of U.S. banking market integration on capital mobility and manufacturing productivity. Using newly digitized bank and branch balance sheet data matched to state and county panels, we provide direct evidence that branching produced lasting productivity gains without aggregate capital deepening by leveraging internal capital markets to improve the geographic allocation of capital. Our novel ``deposit market access'' measure shows that bank funding grew most in capital-constrained counties within branching states. Both market access and border discontinuity designs indicate that branching’s organizational structure reduced capital allocation frictions to generate persistent growth. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 N12 N22 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34457 |
| By: | Castor, Denise June A.; Quimbo, Maria Ana T.; Dizon, Josefina T.; Ella, Victoria Jean R.; Resuello, Rubiriza DC. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea25:373378 |
| By: | Loja-Torres, Jairo; Hilton, Jason; Padmadas, Sabu |
| Abstract: | Background Under-registration of vital statistics is common in low- and middle-income countries, espe- cially among under-privileged groups. We examine the level of completeness of death counts in the Colombian vital registration records relative to those in the Census 2018. Our aim is to estimate the bias caused by under-registration of deaths, and how this bias varies across age and ethnicity. Methods We use data from the 2018 National Population Census and 2017 Vital Registration System from Colombia. Under-registered deaths by ethnic groups were estimated using two methods. First, we compared the number of deaths in the census with those in the mortality records. Second, we fitted a logistic regression model to estimate the relationship between mortal- ity under-registration and ethnicity, using a census variable indicating whether a death in the household was registered or not. Results A comparison of census and vital registration data indicates that the majority of deaths to both Indigenous and Afro-descendent households were not registered. Indigenous under- registration was considerably higher, with 77.8% of deaths reported in the census not captured in the vital registration system. The probability of under-registration remains high among the Indigenous and Afro-descendent population, even after adjusting for household characteristics. Conclusions Vital registration data in Colombia severely underestimate the deaths to Indigenous and Afro- descendants, reinforced by a clear geospatial patterning which correlates with the distribution of ethnic populations. Contribution This study is the first to quantify the magnitude of under-registration of deaths among ethnic groups in Colombia using census micro-data and vital registration data. |
| Date: | 2025–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4my5s_v1 |
| By: | Bilbiie, F. O.; Hanks, F.; Lavender, S. |
| Abstract: | Complementarity between consumption and work is essential for heterogeneous-agent models' ability to generate realistic multiplier effects from aggregate demand shocks, while avoiding puzzling predictions. We show how parameterizing complementarity - in the spirit of Frisch's utility acceleration"- separately from income effects is necessary to achieve both. HANK models equipped with such complementarity deliver plausible fiscal multipliers and simultaneously resolve two key challenges in the literature: a "trilemma" of matching marginal propensities to earn (MPEs) and to consume (MPCs), and a Catch-22 "dilemmac of resolving the forward guidance puzzle. We establish these results analytically in a tractable HANK framework and confirm them in a calibrated quantitative HANK model. Standard utility functions, however, constrain either complementarity or income effects - or both - thereby forcing multipliers to depend exclusively on one or the other. We introduce two flexible parametric forms that allow arbitrary, independent calibration of complementarity and income effects: a quasi-separable "GHH-CRRA" utility and a "CCRRA" (constant complementarity and relative risk aversion) specification. |
| Keywords: | Consumption-Hours Complementarity, HANK, Income and Wealth Effects, Fiscal Multipliers, Utility |
| JEL: | D11 E32 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2573 |
| By: | Monique Arkesteijn; Adinda Jongkind; Hedieh Arfa |
| Abstract: | Strategic behaviour (SB) is defined as the behaviour of stakeholders aiming to maximise their own goals and interests by influencing the outcomes in a decision-making environment. This behaviour is by nature included in the multi-stakeholder decision-making processes, as they use it to influence the process and align the outcomes with their own interests. This can result in imbalances and less-optimal outcomes of the decision-making processes. Decision Support Systems (DSS) are designed to improve decision quality. However, their effectiveness can be compromised when behavioural dynamics are not fully understood. This study aims to investigate how DSS influence SBs (including collaborative and competitive strategies, by using a specific DSS namely the Preference-Based Accommodation Strategy (PAS). PAS is a design and decision support system, which is designed to include the preferences of all the decision-makers. This research uses different qualitative methods within the pilot study at a large Dutch governmental real estate organisation. Different interviews were conducted with key decision-makers to understand the SBs in both traditional and PAS-supported environments. In addition to this, observations were conducted during the execution of the PAS decision and decision support system to analyse stakeholders’ interactions and behavioural patterns in real time. These insights were then analysed to identify how DSS (in this case PAS) influence competitive and collaborative strategies. The results of the analysis show that the current decision-making environments lack transparency and inclusivity, which contributes to competitive behaviour. However, within the PAS-supported environment, collaborative strategies were more prevalent. This is due to the fact that transparency and structured decision process within the PAS encourage collaborative decision-making. The PAS integrates open dialogue and transparent negotiation. Moreover, it creates an environment where cooperative strategies become more effective and rewarding. By addressing the gaps in the DSS field, this study provides insights into the use of specific decision-making environments, such as PAS, to mitigate SBs, more specifically competitive ones, and enhance collective decision quality. |
| Keywords: | Decision Support Systems (DSS); Multi-stakeholder decision-making; Preference-Based; Strategic behaviour |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_254 |
| By: | Hett, Valeriia (SFM - Swiss Forum for Migration and Population Studies) |
| Abstract: | Switzerland activated temporary collective protection (Status S) in March 2022 to respond to the large-scale displacement caused by the war in Ukraine. This exceptional measure, aligned with the European Union’s Temporary Protection Directive, provided immediate access to residence, employment, education and social support, while deliberately remaining temporary in nature. However, the ongoing and protracted nature of the conflict requires consideration of future steps beyond temporary protection. This article develops a conceptual two-stage model adapted to Swiss context. Phase 1 (2025-2027) focuses on facilitating gradual transitions into existing residence categories, which will strength integration and reduce the risks of institutionalised temporariness. Phase 2 (from 2027 onwards) underscores voluntary, safe and dignified return, where possible, in addition to residual protection for those who cannot be repatriated. The proposed framework aims to reconcile humanitarian obligations, integration policies and long-term sustainability. |
| Date: | 2025–10–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gh6b3_v2 |
| By: | Punarjit Roychowdhury; Sourish Mustafi; Bharti Nandwani |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of exposure to hard-security counterinsurgency operations during school-age years on human capital and labor market outcomes in India. We exploit the 1989 introduction of the Greyhounds—a specialized commando force created to combat Naxalite insurgents—in Andhra Pradesh, as a natural experiment. Among all states affected by Naxalite violence, only Andhra Pradesh established such a force during that period. Difference-in-differences estimates suggest that exposure to the policy during school-age years led to increased educational attainment and, in adulthood, better labor market outcomes and improved socioeconomic status. We provide suggestive evidence that a plausible mechanism underlying these effects is increased household investment in education due to reduced uncertainty stemming from improved security. Our findings highlight the economic returns to peace and stability in conflict-affected regions. |
| Keywords: | childhood, conflict, counterinsurgency, education, employment, india |
| JEL: | D74 F52 H56 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:441 |
| By: | Rath, Saswat Sundar (Indian Council of Agricultural Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I introduce “The Triangle of Human Wants”, a novel theoretical model that views human desire as a dynamic and a self-balancing construct based on three interdependent foundational elements such as- Time, Resources, and Money (TRM). The model suggests that these three form the bare minimum conditions that are needed for any want, desire, or goal to emerge, be pursued, and ultimately be satisfied. It draws an analogy to the disease triangle in plant pathology, where disease only occurs when there is the presence of a susceptible host, a virulent pathogen, and a favourable environment, in the same sense, the TRM says that the absence of any one of the elements results in want not being fulfilled or efforts being redirected. Unlike existing motivational theories, such as Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, that describes what humans want, whereas the TRM answers how can a want exist or proceed. It considers human life as if it’s an interacting field of energy, limited by availability of time, access to resources, and monetary means. Empirical data used here was collected through a survey I conducted with 80 respondents with a simple questionnaire to assess how goal achievement relates to TRM availability, revealing significant correlation between domains (r = .34 to .51), a three-factor structure presented by exploratory factor analysis (EFA; loadings>|0.40|, total variance explained was 100%), and decent predictive power (R2 = .35 in regression) for an initial pilot study. Barriers like money where the major bottleneck according to the survey (28% of citations). Overall, The TRM offers a foundational idea which unities motivational, economic, and systems theories into one framework. Its implications include personal well-being, organization goal achievement, policy design and even a universal tool for diagnostics. The findings open pathways for TRM in interventions addressing wastage and misapplication in a complex, resource-limited, and time-bound universe. |
| Date: | 2025–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2crsb_v1 |
| By: | Yixin Tao; Weiqiang Zheng |
| Abstract: | The Fisher market equilibrium for private goods and the Lindahl equilibrium for public goods are classic and fundamental solution concepts for market equilibria. While Fisher market equilibria have been well-studied, the theoretical foundations for Lindahl equilibria remain substantially underdeveloped. In this work, we propose a unified duality framework for market equilibria. We show that Lindahl equilibria of a public goods market correspond to Fisher market equilibria in a dual Fisher market with dual utilities, and vice versa. The dual utility is based on the indirect utility, and the correspondence between the two equilibria works by exchanging the roles of allocations and prices. Using the duality framework, we address the gaps concerning the computation and dynamics for Lindahl equilibria and obtain new insights and developments for Fisher market equilibria. First, we leverage this duality to analyze welfare properties of Lindahl equilibria. For concave homogeneous utilities, we prove that a Lindahl equilibrium maximizes Nash Social Welfare (NSW). For concave non-homogeneous utilities, we show that a Lindahl equilibrium achieves $(1/e)^{1/e}$ approximation to the optimal NSW, and the approximation ratio is tight. Second, we apply the duality framework to market dynamics, including proportional response dynamics (PRD) and t\^atonnement. We obtain new market dynamics for the Lindahl equilibria from market dynamics in the dual Fisher market. We also use duality to extend PRD to markets with total complements utilities, the dual class of gross substitutes utilities. Finally, we apply the duality framework to markets with chores. We propose a program for private chores for general convex homogeneous disutilities that avoids the "poles" issue, whose KKT points correspond to Fisher market equilibria. We also initiate the study of the Lindahl equilibrium for public chores. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.04572 |
| By: | Guojiang Shao; Zuo Quan Xu; Qi Zhang |
| Abstract: | We investigate a portfolio selection problem involving multi competitive agents, each exhibiting mean-variance preferences. Unlike classical models, each agent's utility is determined by their relative wealth compared to the average wealth of all agents, introducing a competitive dynamic into the optimization framework. To address this game-theoretic problem, we first reformulate the mean-variance criterion as a constrained, non-homogeneous stochastic linear-quadratic control problem and derive the corresponding optimal feedback strategies. The existence of Nash equilibria is shown to depend on the well-posedness of a complex, coupled system of equations. Employing decoupling techniques, we reduce the well-posedness analysis to the solvability of a novel class of multi-dimensional linear backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). We solve a new type of nonlinear BSDEs (including the above linear one as a special case) using fixed-point theory. Depending on the interplay between market and competition parameters, three distinct scenarios arise: (i) the existence of a unique Nash equilibrium, (ii) the absence of any Nash equilibrium, and (iii) the existence of infinitely many Nash equilibria. These scenarios are rigorously characterized and discussed in detail. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05270 |
| By: | Daniel Huerta; Shelton Weeks; Jesse Wright |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how corporate liquidity management impacts REIT operational efficiency and firm value. REITs have two liquidity tools that allow them to honor contractual obligations and support operations: cash (and cash equivalents) and credit lines. Although these forms of liquidity may be viewed as substitutes, cash and credit lines differ in costs and in control rights over the use of funds (An et al., 2016). On one hand, cash, although the least expensive form of corporate liquidity, may facilitate agency problems since it allows for managerial discretion in spending and may pose a significant opportunity cost if held idle. Whereas credit lines provide financial flexibility and, besides potential line maintenance fees, will only produce a tangible cost if used; however, lines of credit expose managers to monitoring by the institutions that provide the access to liquidity. An et al. (2016) explain that banks and other financial institutions that offer REITs credit lines may restrict managerial discretion through restrictive covenants, material adverse change clauses, and performance pricing grids. Thus, lines of credit, beyond a means to cover REIT liquidity needs, can serve as a tool to reduce the agency problem and financial distress risk, and may have the potential to impact operational efficiency. Using a sample of publicly traded U.S. equity REITs that spans from 1994 to 2022, we find that corporate liquidity, measured as the combination of cash (and cash equivalents) and available credit lines, is positively and significantly related to REIT operational efficiency and firm value but that excess corporate liquidity is detrimental to efficiency. Interestingly, we find that cash and access to credit lines are not substitutes in REIT liquidity management. In fact, our results suggest that higher cash holdings have a negative impact on REIT operational efficiency whereas more credit line availability produces significant efficiency gains. Results additionally show that squared terms for cash and unused lines of credit variables are both statistically significant, suggesting optimum levels of liquidity that maximize operational efficiency. Furthermore, we find significantly higher market values for REITs with more available credit lines and no significant relationship between cash holdings and firm value after controlling for the impact of liquidity on firm value through the channel of operational efficiency (Beracha et al., 2019a, b). We posit that the efficiency gains from the availability of lines credit may result from reductions in agency costs derived from the monitoring by the institutions who extend the credit (Chang et al, 2023). |
| Keywords: | liquidity management; Operational Efficiency; REIT Corporate Liquidity; REIT value |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_246 |
| By: | Phiri Kampanje, Brian |
| Abstract: | Malawi currently sits on an enormous bamboo industry capable of transforming the social and economic fabric of the nation. The bamboo industry would address the acute shortage of desks in public schools and beds in the boarding schools. Import substitution in bicycles and umbrellas would save the meagre forex resources. There is also a lot of export potential which could earn the scarce foreign currency exchange to contain the cost-push inflation as Malawi is a predominantly importing nation. There is however no political will to tap funds from international green financing schemes. Technical and vocational training education does not support this industry. The conservationists need to appreciate it. The time to act is now. |
| Keywords: | Bamboo; Forest, Vision 2063; Malawi, SDG 15 |
| JEL: | Q23 Q26 Q55 Q57 |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126552 |
| By: | Barboza, Gustavo Maria; Gimenez, Nicolas; Olveira, Adrian Lapaz; Paparas, Dimitrios |
| Abstract: | The aim of this research is to analyze the market efficiency in terms of price transmission, integration, asymmetry of price transmission, of the Uruguayan beef chain and the international market, in both a spatial and vertical dimension for the period from January 2000 to December 2020. Using cointegration and price transmission analysis techniques based on the Law of One Price, we aim to study the dynamics of the Uruguayan beef chain. Through the Johansen cointegration test, corrected for structural breaks detected by the Bai-Perron test and Augmented Dickey-Fuller (with Breaks), we determined the degree of cointegration between the Uruguayan beef chain and the international market. The results of the Granger Causality test indicated that, in most cases, there is no short-term causality between international market prices (represented by the US Standing steer) and domestic prices. In cases where a causal relationship was identified, VECM models were used to examine market efficiency and estimate the adjustment speed between domestic and international prices (long and short-term adjustment). In parallel, VECM models were created for the meat chains of Brazil and Canada, and the transmission of international prices to these countries was analyzed. The results showed that price transmission in the Uruguayan meat chain is slow, leading to reduced market efficiency. An adjustment speed was observed from 3% to 7.8% of domestic prices to international ones, with a return to long-term equilibrium between 14 and 22 months. The impulse response function (IRF) revealed an asymmetry in the domestic market's responses to international price shocks or impulses and a delayed effect accompanied by a low pass-through coefficient (6-26%). Through the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition and its generalized version (FEVD & GFEVD), it was determined that after a shock, the international market could only explain a limited percentage (0.4-13% (FEVD) and 0.6%-28% (GFEVD)) of the variance of Uruguayan prices in the first six months after the shock, reaching a maximum of between 3.5 to 20% (FEVD) and 4.6 to 36% (GFEVD) twelve months after the initial shock. Contrary to logical and intuitive appreciation, econometric study results indicate that the variance in prices of the Uruguayan meat chain depends more on endogenous shocks than on the repercussions of exogenous shocks from the international market. In contrast, in Brazil and Canada, international prices explain a higher percentage of the price variation in their respective domestic markets. The efficiency in price transmission in these markets was significantly higher, around 30 to 36%, with a return to long-term equilibrium in just 3 months. The results of FEVD & GFEVD indicated that international prices can explain between 34%-54% of the variance in Brazilian and Canadian prices, values significantly higher than the Uruguayan case. In summary, the low causality (Granger), delayed transmission (IRF &VECM), impulse asymmetries (IRF), and the limited influence of international prices on Uruguayan prices (FEVD & GFEVD), compared to other evaluated countries, suggest inefficiencies in the Uruguayan beef chain. Oligopsonic market structures could explain partly this inefficiency. The concentration determined by the emergence of the Minerva Foods economic group could trigger even greater inefficiency, decoupling, and potential asymmetries in price transmission. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes024:355329 |
| By: | Abma, Inger; de Bruin, Marijn; Bussemakers, Carlijn; Sniehotta, Falko; Tummers, Lars (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | Scientific advice from the social and behavioural sciences (SBS) can help make public health policies more effective and mitigate the societal impact of major infectious disease outbreaks. This study critically examines the quality of policy briefs from European SBS advisory bodies written during the COVID-19 pandemic. Two researchers independently scored 117 policy briefs from 4 countries using the newly-developed 25-item Policy Brief Checklist. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the results. We found considerable heterogeneity in the quality of policy briefs. Key items like the summary, aim, policy problem addressed, and actionability of the recommendations were adequate in 34% to 59% of policy briefs. Policy briefs containing urgent advice scored better than less urgent briefs on some items (e.g. clear aim) but worse on others (e.g. explication of the policy problem). Hence, although challenging in the high-pressure context of a pandemic, the impact of SBS policy advice during a major infectious disease outbreak could potentially be enhanced if advisory bodies improve the quality of their policy briefs. We recommend that SBS advisory body develop crisis-specific policy brief templates that meet the needs of the advisory body and policymakers, and invest in training so that scientific insights are presented more effectively. |
| Date: | 2025–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:85wmg_v1 |
| By: | Francesco Capozza; Krishna Srinivasan; Mattie Toma |
| Abstract: | Research and development (R&D) is thought to be an important determinant of improvements in living standards, health, and economic security. Yet, U.S. government spending on R&D has fallen over time, with further cuts proposed. Two standard rationalizations for such cuts are: (i) citizens support such cuts, and (ii) the marginal social return from R&D is low. We test these using surveys with U.S. citizens and experts. Our evidence rejects both: a large majority of citizens do not favor cuts and, on the contrary, prefer increasing R&D spending; and a large majority of experts judge the marginal social returns from increasing R&D spending to be high, with the average belief placing benefits at about $3 per dollar invested. Experts underestimate public support, indicating that they misperceive the political feasibility of increasing R&D spending. |
| Keywords: | R&D, government spending priorities, government budget, experts |
| JEL: | O30 H4 H5 D7 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12235 |
| By: | Becker, Ann-Kristin (University of Cologne); Hornung, Erik (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | Industrialization boosts aggregate incomes, but its distributional effects remain debated. We study the impact of coal-driven industrialization on unskilled labor incomes using novel panel data on wages from 667 Prussian localities (1800–1879), extended with county-level data through 1914. Exploiting spatial variation in coal proximity in difference-in-differences and event-study designs, we find that wage gains in coal-rich regions emerged once industrialization accelerated in the 1850s and continued to grow until WWI. Evidence from 3, 000 household accounts shows that coal proximity raised labor incomes primarily for low-skilled workers, with weaker effects for high-skilled and mechanical occupations. This pattern suggests that industrialization reduced wage inequality by compressing the local skill premium. Mediation analysis indicates that wage gains for unskilled workers were primarily driven by technology adoption and the increasing de mand for low-skilled labor, rather than by sectoral change or the spread of the factory system. |
| Keywords: | Industrialization, Labor income, Energy transition, Structural change, Technological change, Deskilling, Nineteenth-century Prussia JEL Classification: C23, J31, N33, N73, N93, O13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:779 |
| By: | Phiri Kampanje, Brian |
| Abstract: | Adoption of IFRS S1 and S2 became mandatory on 1st January 2024 and yet only 33 percent of Malawi’s listed companies disclosed to have adopted the said new sustainability standards and purported no significant impact on the financial statements without producing the required reports as per the International Sustainability Standards Board. The board of directors of those listed companies which did not adopt IFRS S1 and S2 expressed ignorance and pushed the issue to the external auditors who incorrectly stated that prior approval was required as a jurisdictional matter. Some listed companies produced ESG and Sustainability Reports which to lesser extent mitigate the problem. Remedial actions are needed now. |
| Keywords: | Jurisdiction; Auditor, IFRS S1 and S2; Malawi |
| JEL: | M41 M48 M49 |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126553 |
| By: | Chun Pong Lau; Xinran Li |
| Abstract: | This paper considers inference when there is a single treated cluster and a fixed number of control clusters, a setting that is common in empirical work, especially in difference-in-differences designs. We use the t-statistic and develop suitable critical values to conduct valid inference under weak assumptions allowing for unknown dependence within clusters. In particular, our inference procedure does not involve variance estimation. It only requires specifying the relative heterogeneity between the variances from the treated cluster and some, but not necessarily all, control clusters. Our proposed test works for any significance level when there are at least two control clusters. When the variance of the treated cluster is bounded by those of all control clusters up to some prespecified scaling factor, the critical values for our t-statistic can be easily computed without any optimization for many conventional significance levels and numbers of clusters. In other cases, one-dimensional numerical optimization is needed and is often computationally efficient. We have also tabulated common critical values in the paper so researchers can use our test readily. We illustrate our method in simulations and empirical applications. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05710 |
| By: | Grega Ferenc |
| Abstract: | This paper presents causal evidence on how financial aid for Hungarian minorities in Slovakia leads to their non-assimilation. Using a staggered panel event study design, I show that the introduction of financial aid by the Hungarian government led to a statistically significant 2.35 percentage points increase in the yearly rate of change in the share of Hungarians in the first post-treatment period relative to the pre-treatment period. In subsequent years, the effect diminishes to around one percentage point relative to the baseline. When excluding all infrastructure investments from the analysis, the effect in the first post-treatment period is significant and positive. However, it completely levels off in the following periods. The results could suggest that while Hungarian investments in culture are important, they have to be complemented by adequate investments in infrastructure to ensure that more people identify as Hungarians in Slovakia. The results could have implications not only for Hungarians living in Slovakia and other countries but also for the future of European minority protection programs, as laid down in the relevant international legal documents, such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights or the Copenhagen criteria of the European Union. This research should pave the way for future analyses on the prevention of assimilation of autochthonous ethnic minorities worldwide. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_420 |
| By: | Heywood, John S.; Nießen, Anna |
| Abstract: | Using German survey data, we estimate the determinants of employee quits examining the roles of performance appraisal and performance pay. We show that employees subject to performance appraisals are less likely to quit. Yet, this influence depends upon the financial consequences that flow from the appraisals. If there are no financial consequences or if the consequences are short term such as under piece rates, commissions or bonuses, quits are lower. If there are only long-term consequences such as permanent changes in base pay or promotion, there is no reduction in quits. We explore this difference suggesting that the long-term consequences create rigidity while the procyclical nature of short-run performance pay creates flexibility. |
| Keywords: | Performance Appraisal, Performance Pay, Voluntary Job Quits, German Socio-Economic Panel |
| JEL: | C23 M50 M52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1687 |
| By: | Carlos Díaz (Universidad Externado de Colombia); James Torres (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | In 1798, the Spanish Crown enacted a law to consolidate the public debt by collecting and converting public bonds into a new, lower-interest liability. Known as decreto de consolidación de vales reales, the restructuring involved selling a significant portion of the clerical holdings, with the sale proceeds becoming interest-bearing loans payable by the Crown. In 1804, Spanish authorities extended the consolidación to the Spanish American realms, causing major changes in credit and land markets. This paper explores the impact of the measure by assembling the most extensive data set on consolidación payments in the viceroyalty of the New Kingdom of Granada (present-day Colombia and Ecuador). The research focuses on two related topics. First, the size and structure of the payments, including the importance of property sales and clerical loan recalls in the overall financial flows of the consolidación. Second, the paper examines the policy’s effect on land tenure inequality by analyzing the distribution of payments across social groups and regions. The evidence suggests that New Granada’s structure of land ownership remained largely unscathed, as most of the expropriation targeted the clerical capital borrowed by the laity. The valuation of rural estates proved difficult, while large landowners, through co-optation or litigation, managed to avoid loan recalls. Yet, the paper argues that the consolidación spurred inequality by affecting small and mid-size borrowers. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Expropriations, Land Tenure, Fiscal History, Colombia |
| JEL: | N16 N26 N46 D6 Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021759 |
| By: | Mrs. Jana Bricco; Mr. Mario Mansilla; Mrs. Delia Velculescu; Mr. Philippe Wingender |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the macroeconomic implications of lowering the inflation target in an Emerging Market such as South Africa using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF). Model-based simulations indicate that lowering the inflation target from 4.5 to 3 percent, as recently announced by South Africa’s central bank, may entail moderate near-term output costs (measured by the so-called “sacrifice ratio”), while leading to medium-term output gains and lower borrowing costs. The near-term costs critically depend on the credibility of the central bank, which determines the speed with which agents adjust their inflation expectations. Specifically, output costs are lower when inflation expectations adjust more rapidly following the announcement of the new target by the central bank. Similarly, higher sensitivity of risk premia to the announcement of a lower inflation target can further reduce these costs. Concurrent fiscal consolidation can help support the disinflation process and lower the marginal sacrifice ratio. |
| Keywords: | South Africa; Monetary Policy; Inflation Targeting; Sacrifice Ratio; Inflation Expectations; Central Bank Credibility |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/237 |
| By: | Susanne Schennach; Vincent Starck |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel optimal transport-based version of the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). Instead of handling overidentification by reweighting the data to satisfy the moment conditions (as in Generalized Empirical Likelihood methods), this method proceeds by allowing for errors in the variables of the least mean-square magnitude necessary to simultaneously satisfy all moment conditions. This approach, based on the notions of optimal transport and Wasserstein metric, aims to address the problem of assigning a logical interpretation to GMM results even when overidentification tests reject the null, a situation that cannot always be avoided in applications. We illustrate the method by revisiting Duranton, Morrow and Turner's (2014) study of the relationship between a city's exports and the extent of its transportation infrastructure. Our results corroborate theirs under weaker assumptions and provide insight into the error structure of the variables. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05712 |
| By: | Luo, Xubei; Rajasekaran, Arvind Balaji; Scruggs, Andrew Conner |
| Abstract: | Effective monitoring of development aid is the foundation for assessing the alignment of flows with their intended development objectives. Existing reporting systems, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Creditor Reporting System, provide standardized classification of aid activities but have limitations when it comes to capturing new areas like climate change, digitalization, and other cross-cutting themes. This paper proposes a bottom-up, unsupervised machine learning framework that leverages textual descriptions of aid projects to generate highly granular activity clusters. Using the 2021 Creditor Reporting System data set of nearly 400, 000 records, the model produces 841 clusters, which are then grouped into 80 subsectors. These clusters reveal 36 emerging aid areas not tracked in the current Creditor Reporting System taxonomy, allow unpacking of “multi-sectoral” and “sector not specified” classifications, and enable estimation of flows to new themes, including World Bank Global Challenge Programs, International Development Association–20 Special Themes, and Cross-Cutting Issues. Validation against both Creditor Reporting System benchmarks and International Development Association commitment data demonstrates robustness. This approach illustrates how machine learning and the new advances in large language models can enhance the monitoring of global aid flows and inform future improvements in aid classification and reporting. It offers a useful tool that can support more responsive and evidence-based decision-making, helping to better align resources with evolving development priorities. |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11248 |
| By: | Omamo, Steven Were; Kedir, Abbi |
| Abstract: | Key messages 1. The United States is shifting its development engagement in Africa from aid to trade, emphasizing commercial partnerships, private sector development, and export-oriented growth. This shift is not unique to the United States; similar trends are being seen in Europe, China, and Japan, reflecting a global swing toward trade-first or business development strategies. 2. If well aligned, this approach can reinforce African priorities as defined in the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 2026–2035 Strategy, the Kampala Declaration, and national agricultural investment plans. Trade-first strategies map directly onto CAADP’s six strategic objectives, including agro-industrialization, food security, inclusivity, resilience, financing, and governance. 3. These strategies can also support implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, especially through investment in trade corridors, logistics, standards systems, and regulatory cooperation. However, there are risks of misalignment if initiatives prioritize donor or investor interests over inclusive transformation, public goods provision, and food systems resilience. 4. As articulated in discussions during the recent 4th International Conference on Financing for Development, consensus is building for Africa to move beyond aid and propel growth through private sector development. 5. African governments and partners must also go beyond coordination and seriously consider the institutional and political work required to steer this opportunity toward the public good. This consideration will require investing in regulatory capacity, protecting public goods, confronting corruption and capital flight, and ensuring that trade and investment flows are transparent, accountable, and inclusive. Without this, trade-first strategies risk reinforcing existing inequalities, undermining food systems resilience, and turn-ing agrifood transformation into an elite project. 6. Strategic statecraft—rooted in evidence, integrity, and public accountability—is essential to ensure that this shift delivers not just markets but also meaningful structural transformation through industrial policy. 7. The pivot to “trade, not aid” by global partners reflects a broader retreat from long-term development commitments. But it must also be recognized as a shift in priority from shared development outcomes to strategic self-interest, market capture, and influence. 8. Africa cannot be viewed as an open market to be carved up, claimed, or divided. African countries must insist on strategic alignment, mutual accountability, and respect for national development priorities—or risk having their food systems and economic futures being shaped by agendas that do not serve them. |
| Keywords: | agrifood systems; development; food security; resilience; trade; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:176490 |
| By: | De Jonghe, Olivier; Benkovskis, Konstantins; Bielskis, Karolis; Bonfim, Diana; Bottero, Margherita; Briglevics, Tamás; Cesnak, Martin; Dirma, Mantas; Emiris, Marina; Filep-Mosberger, Pálma; Jouvanceau, Valentin; Kaiser, Nicholas; Khametshin, Dmitry; Lalinsky, Tibor; Grolmusz, Viola M.; Moretti, Laura; Nikitins, Artūrs Jānis; Nunnari, Angelo; Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria; Stefanova, Elitsa; Szabó, Lajos Tamás; Vilerts, Kārlis; Zhao, Sujiao Emma |
| Abstract: | We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the passthrough of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs, and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets. JEL Classification: E52, G21, D14 |
| Keywords: | credit registers, cross-country heterogeneity, household borrowing, interest rate pass-through, monetary policy transmission |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253146 |
| By: | Knof, Merlind |
| Abstract: | Numerous projects involving physically embodied service robots fail to achieve their intended outcomes. Existing research has predominantly focused on customer perspectives, leaving a significant gap in our understanding of service robot implementation from an organizational standpoint. Moreover, while evidence indicates that privacy concerns significantly influence user adoption, research remains ambiguous regarding whether these concerns translate into corresponding behaviors. This dissertation addresses these gaps through two empirical research studies that derive generalizable insights into effective service robot implementation and examine employees’ paradoxical privacy behavior. By incorporating both manager-level (macro) and employee-level (micro) perspectives, this dissertation offers a holistic understanding of service robot implementation and usage. Specifically, the first research study employs a grounded theory approach to identify six critical factors for successful service robot implementation, two of which involve inherent trade-offs. As a result, organizations should (1) start with a viable use case, (2) balance a marketing-driven innovator strategy with a productivity-oriented follower strategy, (3) balance the timing and scope of implementation projects in legacy and greenfield environments, (4) prioritize employee acceptance and engage them early, (5) redesign processes using a holistic approach, and (6) select appropriate technology solutions. Additionally, a three-stage framework, comprising ‘initiating’, ‘piloting’, and ‘scaling’, is developed to integrate these theoretical findings and offer practical guidance for managers. These conclusions are drawn from a multi-case theory-building approach encompassing 14 cases across seven industries in three countries, enabling more generalized insights than most previous research. The second research study draws on task-technology fit theory and the Computers-as-Social-Actors paradigm to examine the privacy paradox in workplace interactions with service robots through two consecutive empirical studies. A mixed-method design is applied that extends the privacy paradox to real-world human-service robot interactions, demonstrating that privacy concerns do not necessarily translate into corresponding information-sharing behaviors. Furthermore, task complexity is identified as an important moderator of this paradox, contributing to service robot design research by demonstrating that the type of service robot (i.e., humanoid versus android) significantly affects employees’ privacy behavior. Overall, this dissertation contributes both scientifically and practically by extending established theoretical frameworks (including the innovation diffusion curve, task-technology fit theory, and the Computers-as-Social-Actors paradigm) to the context of service robot implementation and usage. It offers actionable guidelines for managers and underscores the importance of addressing both organizational challenges and employee privacy to achieve successful and sustainable integration of service robots in modern workplaces. |
| Date: | 2025–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:158021 |
| By: | Andre Brunelli; Bruno Martins; Carlos Carvalho |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how individual consumers adjust consumption and debt in response to a large, exogenous financial windfall, using Brazil’s 2017 FGTS reform, which allowed early access to previously illiquid severance fund balances. Leveraging rich administrative data linking credit registry and labor records, we use a difference-in-differences design exploiting quasi-exogenous eligibility timing based on birth month. We decompose the shock into liquidity and wealth components: the liquidity channel reflects early access to illiquid savings, while the wealth component arises from the present-value gain due to FGTS yields being persistently below market interest rates. Credit-constrained individuals primarily used the funds to reduce debt and lower default risk, while unconstrained consumers increased credit-financed spending, raising financial fragility. Liquidity components drove deleveraging and stability, whereas wealth components led to durable consumption and greater credit exposure. These results provide rare empirical validation of key Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) mechanisms and offer policy-relevant insights into how the composition of financial transfers influences consumer behavior and financial stability. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:634 |
| By: | Zhang, Meng Le (Cardiff University); Griffith, Gareth; Holland, Sally; Elliott, Martin |
| Abstract: | Early years interventions have the potential to prevent later life inequalities. Sure Start in Northern Ireland is a place-based early years health and education programme that offers services to some of the most disadvantaged areas in the country. Families with children under four residing in these areas are eligible to access Sure Start services. This study uses a naturally occurring experiment with a Regression Discontinuity (RD) Design and administrative data to measure the impact of Sure Start on health and social services as well as child and maternal health at birth. We find no evidence of an impact on health outcomes at birth. However, we do find that Sure Start reduces the rate of child social services referrals and assessments for a child in need as well as the number of children who become a ‘child in need’. These reductions are most substantial in the first five years of life with no evidence of a rebound after school entry. We also find some evidence these effects are higher for mothers aged 21 and younger. Due to study limitations, the magnitude of these effects are imprecisely measured and we suggest further avenues for future research. |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wz2qm_v1 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | In 2024, the United States economy expanded 2.8%, led by consumer spending. Job creation slowed and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% in December. Inflation eased to 2.4% in September but closed the year at 2.9%, with the core consumer price index (CPI) at 3.2%. The Federal Reserve cut rates in September, November and December, lowering the federal funds target range to 4.25%–4.50%, while trade and fiscal deficits widened. In the first half of 2025, GDP growth averaged 1.4%, with a contraction of 0.3% in the first quarter and an uptick of 3.3% in the second. From January to July, the economy added 597, 000 jobs —44% fewer than in the same period of 2024— and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Inflation remained above target, with CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 3.1% in July, while the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged. United States economic and policy developments affected Latin America and the Caribbean in the first half of 2025, as external financing costs remained relatively high amid higher yields and tariff related uncertainty. The United States economic outlook reports follow the main macroeconomic developments of the United States economy and how they may affect financial conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean. |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col896:82513 |
| By: | Takeki Sunakawa (Professor, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University (E-mail: takeki.sunakawa@gmail.com)) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which fiscal factors have contributed to inflation in Japan over the past four decades. Despite sustained fiscal expansion and rising debt since the 1990s, inflation remained low until recent years. Using the medium-scale DSGE model developed by Bianchi et al. (2023), we estimate the model with Japanese data and find that, in contrast to the U.S. case, unfunded fiscal shocks are not the main drivers of inflation in Japan. Instead, real demand and supply shocks, along with accommodative monetary policy, have played more significant roles in shaping inflation dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Fiscal Theory of Price Level, Japan |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-14 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | For small island developing States (SIDS), sustainable development is a delicate balance of pursuing economic growth, social development and environmental stewardship in the context of economic volatility, social challenges, climate change threats and global uncertainties while striving to build resilience. Recognized as a special case for development since the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, SIDS remain highly vulnerable to external shocks due to their small economies, limited connectivity and reliance on external markets. Over the years, global frameworks such as the Barbados Programme of Action (1994), the Mauritius Strategy for Implementation (2005) and the SIDS Accelerated Modalities of Action (SAMOA) Pathway (2014–2024) have helped shape SIDS development priorities. However, traditional challenges remain, including those related to climate change, sea level rise and unsustainable levels of public debt, while new threats, such as pandemics and a new regime of protectionism in international trade and migration, continue to shape the development of SIDS. Building on past efforts to promote sustainable development in SIDS, the Antigua and Barbuda Agenda for Small Island Developing States (ABAS) was adopted at the fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States in May 2024 by the Heads of State and Government and high-level representatives of the United Nations Member States. This ten-year plan (2024–2034) prioritizes economic resilience, social wellbeing and equity, environmental sustainability and access to financing, while aligning with global frameworks such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (United Nations, 2024). A core component of the Antigua and Barbuda Agenda is the call to establish a systematic monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework, which builds on the Samoa Pathway’s monitoring system and aligns with SDG targets and indicators. This framework envisages biennial regional reviews and progress reports to support policymaking and strengthening of implementation accountability. |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col095:82449 |
| By: | Hannah Salzberger; Tobias Just |
| Abstract: | The future of office buildings is undergoing a major reassessment as remote working is persistently as well as widely used and cost-benefit analysis reshapes its spatial dynamics. Offices are evolving into spaces for creativity and collaboration, with solitary tasks increasingly completed remotely. While productivity, cost savings and reduced distractions are key benefits, travel time remains the primary driver for working from home. Despite below-average leasing activity in Germany’s top seven cities, the office market is showing signs of stabilizing, with top rents rising. In contrast, office vacancy rates in the US continue to surge, although some cities, such as New York, are experiencing rising property prices and renewed popularity. These trends are influenced by urban structures as well as differences in residential/commercial separation and amenity mix. This research constructs a framework to identify optimal office locations that minimize aggregate travel costs, considering different work modes. First, an analytical model examines commuting costs to central business districts (CBDs) versus peripheral areas, assuming a monocentric city with a denser population near the CBD. Adding satellite offices and amenities evaluates how they affect the attractiveness of centrality. Two working arrangements are examined: team-dependent tasks and independent tasks. Simulations test different team sizes to determine the optimal office location. First, a circular city model is used. Then, in order to minimize total times for different team sizes, real office and residential data is incorporated, with travel times calculated for each office. The methodology uses OpenStreetMap and a KDTree to link residential and office addresses to network nodes, with Dijkstra’s algorithm calculating shortest paths. First, it measures 15- ans well as 30-minute accessibility on foot, by car, or by public transport. Second, it aggregates travel times for randomly selected teams (2-5 people) over 100.000 iterations, highlighting the most frequently selected optimal office locations based on minimum travel time. The initial analysis focuses on Berlin, expanding to Frankfurt before comparing it to New York and Los Angeles to explore the effects of sprawl and centrality. Overall, the results identify the most accessible office locations and explore how urban structures influence accessibility, providing insights into optimal office locations under different working modes. This study contributes to the discourse on the development of office space, focusing on commuting costs and the spatial needs of collaborative and individual work. |
| Keywords: | Office location; Real Travel Time; Team Size; Work-from-home |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_49 |
| By: | Palma, J. G. |
| Abstract: | Krugman identified the enigma of Latin America's underperformance as one of the greatest analytical challenges of economic theory today. Indeed, when compared with the other regions and main countries, since implementing its neo-liberal economic reforms Latin America has become a region of extremes: while its employment creation in services since 1980 ranks top in the world, its productivity growth ranks bottom; in turn, while the share of market income (i.e., before taxes and transfers) of LA's richest 1% and 10% also ranks among the top in the world, its investment as a percentage of GDP ranks bottom in the world. One narrative that helps understand this contrasting scenario is that of the classical economist David Ricardo (perhaps the greatest of the classical economists), who was the first to analyse why 'rentier-led' economies would be held back precisely by the debilitating effect of a likely 'trilogy' of high market inequality, low investment rates and meagre productivity growth. To keep exporting "more of the same" unprocessed commodities or products from "shallow" manufacturing assembly-operations is no longer a valid growthoption for Latin America ―just a recipe to continue being stuck in the middle-income trap. But domestic rigidities and markets imperfections and failures (home and abroad) are blocking the necessary "upgrade" of these exhausted productive strategies. But the conventional hegemonic wisdom still expects these countries to leap from mid-table to higher income-per capita through policies based on the same institutional setting, elite-preferences, and ideology that got them stuck in mid-table —this is not a realistic solution. Furthermore, the escape route for LA from its "neo-liberal trap", and nearly half a century of productivity stagnation, requires more than just a Keynesian/Structuralist macro, together with an ('incentive' based) industrial policy; these may well be necessary conditions for sustainable growth, but they are certainly not sufficient ones. What it needs as well is to get rentiers on board: unless one can enforce 'productive' behaviour from them, sustainable growth is not an option. The key challenge in rentier-led economies, then, comes from what I like to call a 'post-Ricardian' perspective: how to 'discipline' rentiers to be able to redirect their income towards socially desirable investment strategies. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, "easy" rents, rentier elites; "extractivism", productivity growth, inequality, "reverse" flying geese, middle-income trap, neo-liberalism, emerging Asia, David Ricardo |
| JEL: | E20 N10 O11 O47 B00 G01 Q02 |
| Date: | 2025–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2572 |
| By: | Felipe Francisco De Souza |
| Abstract: | This study integrates historical institutionalism with geostatistical methods to examine the evolution and impact of land readjustment (Baulandumlegung) projects in Frankfurt am Main over the past 120 years. Drawing on critical junctures and path dependence as theoretical pillars, we trace how pivotal legal, political, and economic events—such as new planning laws, macroeconomic crises, and wartime disruptions—shaped planning policies and practices. We hypothesize that once certain institutional pathways were chosen, subsequent changes became increasingly constrained, leading to distinct project designs, financing schemes, and dispute-resolution practices. Methodologically, we present a novel Baulandumlegung Prognosis Algorithm that combines machine learning, spatiotemporal statistics, and a historical institutionalist ground to forecast land readjustment outcomes. The dataset, which spans from 1902 to 2022, integrates unstructured data from archival records, property transaction listings, and Sütterlin-scripted documents across distinct historical periods, including the German Empire, Weimar Republic, and post-World War II eras. Applied to distinct periods of voluntary (139) and enforcement-based (183) project implementations, the algorithm incorporates seven key components into a single predictive pipeline—geographically weighted regression, Mahalanobis distance matching, difference-in-differences estimation, anisotropic variogram analysis, odds ratio clustering, a historical weight function, and a cumulative probability predictor. These components collectively capture spatial dependence, isolate treatment effects, and incorporate path-dependent institutional changes. At the core of this framework lies a machine-learning classification module. By applying cross-entropy loss to guide training, we iteratively optimize hyperparameters (e.g., learning rate, maximum tree depth, regularization terms) to minimize predictive bias and enhance model generalizability in real estate markets. We pair 'treated' land readjustment sites with comparable 'control' areas to quantify the causal impact of Baulandumlegung on property prices and urban form over time. Additionally, anisotropic (semi)variogram analyses uncover hidden spatial heterogeneities by illustrating how direction-specific correlation structures influence project outcomes. A historical weight function further operationalizes how critical junctures shaped path-dependent trajectories across German political regimes. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in the effects of land readjustment across Frankfurt am Main, with varying impacts on property values and urban development patterns. Empirical validation using spatial cross-validation confirms that our machine learning approach successfully predicts project locations at specific times while accounting for complex spatiotemporal relationships outperforming traditional parametric and non-spatial hedonic models. Preliminary findings suggest that critical junctures—such as the post-war reconstruction and amendments to the German Building Code—acted as catalysts for reaffirming or altering Frankfurt’s planning trajectory. This methodological innovation provides urban planners and policymakers with a robust tool for analyzing not only prospective land readjustment areas but also regions affected by other planning instruments, effectively combining a historical-institutionalist framework with modern machine-learning techniques. |
| Keywords: | Geostatistics; historical institutionalism; Land Readjustment; Machine learning Algorithms |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_185 |
| By: | Höfelmann, Ludo (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Education and transition to work); Huijgen, Timo (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Health, skills and inequality) |
| Abstract: | Naast de groep schoolverlaters die hun opleiding succesvol hebben afgerond, is er ook een groep die uitvalt zonder een diploma te hebben gehaald. Deze groep wordt ook wel vroegtijdige schoolverlaters genoemd. In het kader van het Schoolverlatersonderzoek door het CBS uitgevoerd in samenwerking met ROA, fungeert dit onderzoek als een manier om de oorzaken, gevolgen en mogelijke beleidsmaatregelen inzichtelijk te maken, en om informatie te verkrijgen over het traject dat volgde nadat de respondenten de opleiding hadden verlaten. |
| Date: | 2025–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarof:2025005 |
| By: | Isil Erol; Ezgi Doru |
| Abstract: | Following the 2008/09 Great Financial Crisis—characterized by the collapse of the housing market and waves of forced evictions across the Global North—the viability of home ownership ‘for all’ has come under critical scrutiny, both materially and ideologically. On the one hand, the liberalizing credit markets introduced to push homeownership rates further upward have reached their limits; on the other hand, the ideological framing of home ownership as the cornerstone of household economic security over the life course has been critically undermined, revealing its structural contradictions. The political project of promoting homeownership at the expense of other tenures has created an alarming housing crisis, as private renting has become the fastest-growing tenure globally, coupled with increasing unaffordability in a highly unregulated rental markets. Since the late 2000s, rental housing prices have been on the rise, increasing by an average of 1.5 times across OECD countries, while Turkey ranks first, with rental costs surging elevenfold between 2015 and 2024. Furthermore, in the past thirteen years Turkey has experienced the fastest real house price increase among OECD countries where the real price index increased from 83.7 in 2010 to 196.7 in 2023 – with a 135% rise. Due to stubburnly high housing inflation, homeownership rate in the country has decreased 5 percentage points over the past decade, from 61% in 2012 & 2013 to 56% in 2023. Widely discussed in the academic literature, Turkey's housing crisis was primarily driven by a state-facilitated credit boom in the non-financial corporate sector—particularly in construction and real estate companies—unlike the household debt-driven crises commonly observed in Global North countries. Turkey’s high inflation has squeezed the mortgage market as the share of residential mortgages in total consumer credits declined to 31% in 2023 from a peak of 49% in mid-2000s. As a result, both the share of renter households and the share of tenants who pay reduced or free rents (among renter households) significantly increased. A substantial body of critical research has examined the contradictions of financialized homeownership policies, which remain relevant as it is still the most institutionally and financially supported tenure in many parts of the world. Yet, the contemporary housing affordability crisis cannot be fully understood without placing rental housing at the core of political economy analyses. With the aim of addressing this gap in the literature, our research paper explores Turkey’s rental housing crisis as a novel phenomenon in the country’s urban history. It places particular emphasis on the history of the state’s exclusionary policies toward rental housing as a legitimate tenure, the changing character of Turkey’s rental housing stock, and the structural reasons behind rental price increases that surpass inflation and wage growth. This analysis is based on a combination of archival research, including parliamentary documents, historical records, and newspaper archives related to housing, as well as national and international statistical data on rental markets, inflation, and wage growth. |
| Keywords: | affordability crisis; rental housing crisis; Turkish housing market; urban housing affordability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_125 |
| By: | James Morley; Jieying Zhang |
| Abstract: | We examine whether inflation is driven by aggregate or sectoral output gaps. The aggregate output gap may not fully capture inflationary pressures because it can obscure sectoral shocks and heterogeneity in propagation to prices. We find that aggregating sectoral output gaps by weights estimated from real-time regressions produces a better fit of the Phillips curve than using the aggregate output gap. We confirm the sectorally-aggregated output gap based on these weights has significant explanatory power for inflation beyond the aggregate output gap and find it performs better in forecasting inflation, although the aggregate output gap retains its own distinct information. |
| Keywords: | sectoral shocks, inflation dynamics, Phillips curve, real-time analysis |
| JEL: | C22 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-58 |
| By: | Kevin Zielnicki; Guy Aridor; Aurelien Bibaut; Allen Tran; Winston Chou; Nathan Kallus |
| Abstract: | Personalized recommendation systems shape much of user choice online, yet their targeted nature makes separating out the value of recommendation and the underlying goods challenging. We build a discrete choice model that embeds recommendation-induced utility, low-rank heterogeneity, and flexible state dependence and apply the model to viewership data at Netflix. We exploit idiosyncratic variation introduced by the recommendation algorithm to identify and separately value these components as well as to recover model-free diversion ratios that we can use to validate our structural model. We use the model to evaluate counterfactuals that quantify the incremental engagement generated by personalized recommendations. First, we show that replacing the current recommender system with a matrix factorization or popularity-based algorithm would lead to 4% and 12% reduction in engagement, respectively, and decreased consumption diversity. Second, most of the consumption increase from recommendations comes from effective targeting, not mechanical exposure, with the largest gains for mid-popularity goods (as opposed to broadly appealing or very niche goods). |
| Keywords: | personalization, recommender systems, streaming platforms |
| JEL: | L82 C25 D83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12257 |
| By: | Jongejan, Ruben; Van Ledden, Matheus; Lendering, Kasper; Verschuur, Jasper; Shuvra, Debashish Paul; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Kazi, Swarna |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh has demonstrated how investment in coastal flood protection saves lives, reduces economic losses, and protects development gains. Yet, its cost effectiveness depends on the design standards, which are currently selected on a project-by-project basis. This is because at present, there is no law, policy, or agency guidance to guide or inform decisions on design standards for coastal polders in the country. To inform the discussion on appropriate flood protection standards for Bangladesh’s coastal polders, this paper investigates what these standards would look like if they were based on cost-benefit analyses. The analysis finds that implementing differentiated flood protection standards across the coastal polders can be a cost-effective strategy for further suppressing flood risks, reducing up to 27.5 percent of the total cost and flood risks (from US$23.4 billion investment cost + US$11 billion flood risk to US$18.6 billion investment cost + US$6.7 billion flood risk). This includes the substantial investment in bank protection needed (~US$5 billion), irrespective of the flood protection standards, to maintain the alignment of the present embankments around the coastal polders. Although the absolute values of the economically optimal protection levels are subject to considerable uncertainty, a sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the finding that there is considerable value in flood protection level differentiation. Flood protection standards are rarely based on economic considerations alone. They could also be informed by the desire to reduce life safety risk or combat poverty. It is recommended that the implications of applying different perspectives on the tolerability of risks to determine differentiated flood protection standards be carefully explored in consultation with stakeholders. |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11250 |
| By: | Künn, Annemarie (RS: GSBE UM-BIC, ROA / Labour market and training); Hendrickx, Stef (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Human capital in the region); Huijgen, Timo (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Health, skills and inequality); Dijksman, Sander (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training) |
| Date: | 2025–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarof:2025003 |
| By: | Assenza, Tiziana; Huber, Stefanie; Mogilevskaja, Anna; Schmidt, Tobias |
| Abstract: | We use a randomized experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel-Households (n ≈ 3, 900) to show that the estimated link between inflation expectations and household consumption flips sign depending on survey wording. This finding reconciles prior contradictory results and has direct implications for central bank survey design. Our experiment systematically varies elicitation framing of consumption question along three dimensions: the reference unit (individual vs. household), the time horizon (past one, 3, or 12 months), and the question type (attitudinal, planned, qualitative and quantitative recall-based). We find that the time horizon and question type significantly influence the estimated relationship between inflation expectations and durable consumption. While the average effect is weak, its sign and magnitude vary strongly with question design. Planned spending and attitudinal questions, such as whether it is a good time to buy, produce very similar negative associations, suggesting that respondents interpret the former as a proxy for future intentions. In contrast, quantitative recall-based questions on past spending yield a modestly positive link, especially for shorter horizons. These results highlight the critical role of survey design in shaping behavioral measurements, offering a novel explanation for mixed findings in the literature and guidance for both research and policy. |
| Keywords: | Expectations; household decision making; survey methodology; framing effects; measurement; inflation (economic) |
| JEL: | C83 D12 D84 E31 |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131083 |
| By: | Ferrando, Annalisa; Lamboglia, Sara; Offner, Eric |
| Abstract: | We study how survey-based measures of funding needs and availability influence the transmission of euro area monetary policy to investment. We first provide evidence that funding needs are primarily driven by fundamentals, while perceived funding availability captures financial conditions. Using these two measures, we assess how the effectiveness of monetary policy varies with fundamentals and financial conditions. Our results indicate that monetary policy is most effective when firms’ fundamentals are strong. In contrast, firms with favorable financial conditions exhibit a more muted investment response to monetary policy. By combining these two survey-based measures, we construct an indicator of financial constraints and show that financially constrained firms are more sensitive to monetary policy. These findings offer new light on the transmission of monetary policy to corporate investment, emphasizing not only the role of financial conditions, but also the importance of fundamentals, which are beyond the direct influence of central banks JEL Classification: C83, E22, E52 |
| Keywords: | central banking, financial conditions, firm heterogeneity, investment opportunities, survey data |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253150 |
| By: | Aydın, Yaşar |
| Abstract: | Die Türkei ist nicht nur ein wichtiger Absatzmarkt für deutsche Kraftfahrzeuge, sie exportiert zugleich in bedeutendem Umfang Automobile und diverse Komponenten nach Deutschland. Durch ihre Einbindung in die deutschen Lieferketten tragen türkische Zulieferer maßgeblich zur internationalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der deutschen Automobilindustrie bei. Allerdings sieht sich die türkische Autoindustrie mit komplexen wirtschaftlichen, technologischen und geopolitischen Herausforderungen konfrontiert: Handelshemmnisse, Verschärfung des internationalen Wettbewerbs, makroökonomische Ungleichgewichte. Diese Herausforderungen gewinnen nun auch für die deutsche Automobilwirtschaft und Sicherheitspolitik an Relevanz - bergen sie doch sicherheits- und geoökonomische Risiken und könnten die deutsch-türkische Verflechtung schwächen. Türkische Autohersteller und Regierungsvertreter reagieren auf die genannten Herausforderungen mit einer strategischen Neupositionierung hin zu Digitalisierung und Elektrifizierung. Daraus ergeben sich neue Kooperationschancen mit Deutschland. |
| Keywords: | türkische Automobilindustrie, deutsche Automobilindustrie, Lieferketten, Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Elektromobilität, E-Mobilität, Mobilitätswende, Produktionsstandort Türkei, türkische Autohersteller, chinesische Autohersteller, Togg, BYD, Tesla, türkische Wirtschaft, Technologie, Geopolitik, Sicherheitspolitik, Neupositionierung türkische Automobilindustrie, Türkei, China, Deutschland, EU, USA, Nato, Sicherheitsrisiken E-Autos |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:331224 |
| By: | Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão |
| Abstract: | An outline for a new International Monetary System (IMS) is proposed, fit for the changing realities of nowadays’ turbulent world. Framed on the view of an IMS as a multi-layered graph, it emphasises flexibility and modularity, together with a lesser role for the International Monetary Fund. The proposal seeks to depart from the Bretton Woods’ framework, still the object of “new improvements”, actually marginal or merely technical ones, to save the status quo. The much talked about question of the reference currency is set under the perspective of negotiated currencies. Liquidity imbalances and hidden leverages are addressed, as well risk and control aspects of the designed structure. It must be taken as a transitional scheme, a way to operate a more or less chaotic and less efficient system, during a spell. A path, robust to unavoidable retreats, leading to a stable structure in the new and yet unknown order to come. |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:849 |
| By: | Koji Takahashi (Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: kouji.takahashi-2@boj.or.jp)); Sumiko Takaoka (Professor, Faculty of Business Administration, Seikei University (E-mail: takaoka@bus.seikei.ac.jp)) |
| Abstract: | This study empirically investigates the effects of the corporate bond purchase program conducted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on bond issuance and issuers. By applying a large language model to market news on corporate bond issuance, we identify individual bond issues that attract demand from investors intending to resell them to the BOJ through its purchase program. Using this indicator of demand, we find that the credit spreads of such bonds are more than 20% lower than those without it, and their issuance sizes are approximately 15% larger. Additionally, the effects on corporate bonds with investor demand to utilize the BOJ program are greater than those on bonds that are merely eligible for it. Finally, we show that firms leveraging the BOJ's program to increase bond issuance allocate the raised funds to capital investment while reducing bank borrowing. |
| Keywords: | Corporate bonds, Corporate bond purchase program, Demand uncertainty, Marketing news, Large Language Model |
| JEL: | E43 E52 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-11 |
| By: | Edmark, Karin (SOFI, Stockholm University, and); Persson, Lovisa (Kristianstad University, and) |
| Abstract: | We study the wage effects of an expansion of for-profit preschools in Sweden, which followed after a reform in 2006 removed municipalities’ right to veto private entry. The expansion decreased preschool employers’ monopsony power by increasing the number of alternative employers. We use a differences-in-differences event study design to evaluate the impact on preschool workers’ wages, and find no evidence that wages were affected. In the context that we study, the absence of an upward wage effect may be explained by the entering for-profit firms’ propensity to hire less qualified, lower-paid staff, and workers from other sectors of the economy than the preschool sector. |
| Keywords: | Monopsony power; For-profit provision; Preschool workers; Gender gap |
| JEL: | H44 I20 J31 J42 |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1541 |
| By: | RJ Waken; Fengxian Wang; Sarah A. Eisenstein; Tim McBride; Kim Johnson; Karen Joynt-Maddox |
| Abstract: | Recent advances in interrupted time series analysis permit characterization of a typical non-linear interruption effect through use of generalized additive models. Concurrently, advances in latent time series modeling allow efficient Bayesian multilevel time series models. We propose to combine these concepts with a hierarchical model selection prior to characterize interruption effects with a multilevel structure, encouraging parsimony and partial pooling while incorporating meaningful variability in causal effects across subpopulations of interest, while allowing poststratification. These models are demonstrated with three applications: 1) the effect of the introduction of the prostate specific antigen test on prostate cancer diagnosis rates by race and age group, 2) the change in stroke or trans-ischemic attack hospitalization rates across Medicare beneficiaries by rurality in the months after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and 3) the effect of Medicaid expansion in Missouri on the proportion of inpatient hospitalizations discharged with Medicaid as a primary payer by key age groupings and sex. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05725 |
| By: | Paulus, Alexandra |
| Abstract: | Die Cybersicherheit von Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft in Europa ist stark abhängig von den Vereinigten Staaten. Konkret dominieren US-amerikanische Unternehmen den weltweiten Markt für Cybersicherheits-Anwendungen ebenso wie für Informationen über entsprechende Bedrohungen. Bei der Gewinnung von Letzteren spielt auch das Militär des Landes eine Rolle. Außerdem leistet die Regierung in Washington finanzielle Unterstützung für Schwachstellen-Datenbanken und das Open-Source-Ökosystem. Was zunächst nach technischen Einzelaspekten klingt, bedeutet in der Summe, dass Europas Handlungsfähigkeit in diesem Bereich begrenzt ist und es auch mit einem eigenen "EuroStack" noch bliebe. Diese Abhängigkeiten können in verschiedenen Situationen zum Problem werden - wenn die US-Regierung ihre finanzielle Unterstützung für Cybersicherheit beendet, wenn sie ihre politischen Prioritäten ändert oder in einem Konflikt mit Europa die Dependenz offen als Waffe einsetzt. Deutsche und europäische Entscheidungsträger:innen sollten jetzt gezielt Maßnahmen ergreifen, um die Abhängigkeiten zu reduzieren und so die Cybersicherheit in Europa langfristig zu schützen. |
| Keywords: | Cybersicherheit, USA, Europa, Schwachstellen-Datenbanken, Open-Source-Ökosystem, Open-Source-Software (OSS), EuroStack, Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI), US Cyber Command, Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE), National Vulnerability Database (NVD) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:331235 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | Esta edición 2025 del Observatorio Demográfico ofrece un análisis profundo y actualizado de las tendencias históricas y recientes de la fecundidad en América Latina y el Caribe, con especial atención en el fenómeno de la baja fecundidad. Desde 2015, la tasa global de fecundidad se mantiene por debajo del nivel de reemplazo y actualmente se sitúa en 1, 8 hijos por mujer en América Latina y apenas 1, 5 hijos por mujer en el Caribe. A partir de diversas fuentes demográficas y con el respaldo de la literatura científica más reciente, esta publicación busca aportar información sobre la situación actual de los países y territorios de la región con relación a los niveles y la velocidad de descenso de la fecundidad y sus determinantes. Se identifican también las principales desigualdades regionales y socioeconómicas asociadas a los comportamientos reproductivos, así como los factores que subyacen a los cambios observados. El documento aborda además los desafíos que plantea este nuevo escenario desde una perspectiva de políticas públicas, examinando los programas y políticas familiares implementados en contextos de baja fecundidad y los principales marcos normativos internacionales y regionales que los sustentan. Anexo A1 Estimación del efecto tempo para los países y territorios de América Latina y el Caribe Este anexo incluye una carpeta con los archivos que se utilizaron para la estimación, utilizando el software R, del efecto tempo, y los resultados para los países y territorios de la región que se presentan en el capítulo III. La estructura del archivo zip es la siguiente: - Datos - Gráficos - RScript Se pueden reproducir todos los gráficos en la carpeta utilizando el Rscript junto con los archivos en la carpeta de datos. |
| Date: | 2025–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col044:82932 |
| By: | Giovanna Ciaffi; Matteo Deleidi; Antonino LOfaro |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of Mission–Oriented Innovation Policies (MOIPs) and public R&D investment by quantifying the responses of GDP, private investment, hours worked, labour productivity, and the real hourly wage. We combine a Bartik–type identification strategy with the Local Projections method on a novel dataset with a sectoral–regional dimension, covering 333 European NUTS–2 regions over 1995–2019. Results show that R&D government spending exerts robust and persistent expansionary effects, crowding in private investment, raising employment, and boosting productivity. Sectoral heterogeneity emerges, with high multiplicative effects in construction and finance, while employment effects are concentrated in construction and market services. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy; Mission-Oriented Innovation Policies; R&D government spending; Sectoral heterogeneity; Regional economics; Local Projections; European regions. Jel Classification: R11; E62; H50; O38 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:934 |
| By: | Sotirios Thanos; Jean Dubé |
| Abstract: | Difference-in-difference (DiD) exploit exogenous shocks to capture causal effects in hedonic pricing (HP) models but rely heavily on fixed effects (FE) to, both, define the quasi-experimental settings and satisfy the assumptions of no spatial and temporal omitted variable bias (OVB). Bishop et al (2020, p:271-2) explain the function of time and space FEs: a)“generalizing the DiD model by interacting price function parameters with time-period dummies, allows the shape of the price function to change over time”; and b) “the geographic scale for these [spatial] dummy variables presents a bias-variance trade-off: defining neighborhoods to be smaller reduces bias by better controlling for omitted amenities but increases variance by relying on less within-neighborhood variation in the amenity of interest”. To help address the reliance on FEs and bias-variance trade-off, we develop a causal identification strategy that integrates DiD and the “Differenced-Price-Peers” (DPP) (Thanos and Dubé, 2022) approach. The DPP approach is based on comparable sales occurring in close spatial proximity and tight time-window before a house sale. By differencing out common spatial observables and unobservables between comparables, DPP delivers a spatiotemporal OVB treatment without relying on FEs or sacrificing any variance, which is especially useful in cases of sparse and challenging data. We first evidence the advantages of our approach by replicating the influential Linden and Rockoff (2008) results with improved statistical significance. We procced to employ the rare exogenous shock of airport closure in order to construct a quasi-experimental setting for aviation noise valuation, which is otherwise not possible due to the bias-variance trade-off. We find a 0.73% price increase per decibel of noise reduction for houses above the background noise level of 55 decibels, which suggests, on average, a €14, 000 increase to affected properties due to the airport closure and aviation noise termination. Our approach also allows to examine nonlinearities, as for instance we find a 2% price increase per decibel for noise reductions above 65 decibels. This translates to a substantial € 43, 000 increase to properties affected by aviation noise levels of 70 decibels. |
| Keywords: | aviation noise; difference-in-difference; House Prices; Omitted Variable Bias |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_27 |
| By: | Roy, Devesh; Padhee, Arabinda Kumar; Pradhan, Mamata; Saroj, Sunil; Vidhani, Vandana; Kumar, Devendra; Kumar Burman, Amit |
| Abstract: | The Comprehensive Rice Fallow Management (CRFM) program, initiated by the Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Empowerment (DAFE), Government of Odisha, is a program to address the underutilization of rice fallow lands in Odisha, particularly during the Rabi (post-monsoon) season which occurs following the Kharif (monsoon) paddy harvest. CRFM was implemented to encourage cultivation of pulses and oilseeds that thrive on residual soil moisture. The CRFM program was implemented in 20 districts of Odisha, in collaboration with the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Government of India empaneled agencies that have a presence in the state and prior experience in similar programs. In the remaining 10 districts of the state, the CRFM program was implemented by the state government’s Chief District Agriculture Officers (CDAOs). The impacts of CRFM interventions evaluated in this study comprise crop demonstrations organized in clusters of at least 20 hectares, with crops like black gram, green gram, chickpeas, lentils, grass peas, sesamum, and mustard. |
| Keywords: | fallow; rice; grain legumes; oilseeds; agricultural production; India; Southern Asia; Asia |
| Date: | 2025–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:174401 |
| By: | Jian'an Zhang |
| Abstract: | We propose ARBITER, a risk-neutral neural operator for learning joint SPX-VIX term structures under no-arbitrage constraints. ARBITER maps market states to an operator that outputs implied volatility and variance curves while enforcing static arbitrage (calendar, vertical, butterfly), Lipschitz bounds, and monotonicity. The model couples operator learning with constrained decoders and is trained with extragradient-style updates plus projection. We introduce evaluation metrics for derivatives term structures (NAS, CNAS, NI, Dual-Gap, Stability Rate) and show gains over Fourier Neural Operator, DeepONet, and state-space sequence models on historical SPX and VIX data. Ablation studies indicate that tying the SPX and VIX legs reduces Dual-Gap and improves NI, Lipschitz projection stabilizes calibration, and selective state updates improve long-horizon generalization. We provide identifiability and approximation results and describe practical recipes for arbitrage-free interpolation and extrapolation across maturities and strikes. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.06451 |
| By: | Scharnhop, Johann; Loy, Jens-Peter |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi24:364756 |
| By: | Berger, Axel; Dash, Priyadarshi; von Haaren, Paula; Putz, Lena-Marie; de Mello e Souza, André |
| Abstract: | The world is falling behind on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a situation exacerbated by recent geopolitical disruptions and challenges to international cooperation. This policy brief, based on a virtual roundtable in the context of the Hamburg Sustainability Conference (HSC) with influential experts from Latin America, Africa and Asia, explores how recent global shifts - such as reduced funding for development, fundamental policy changes of major powers and weakened multilateral institutions - are reshaping development and trade cooperation. While these disruptions have had damaging effects on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in particular, they also present opportunities to reform international systems, diversify cooperation formats and strengthen regional and sectoral alliances. Three key recommendations emerge from the roundtable discussion that are relevant for international cooperation for sustainable development going forward: Trade is increasingly being used as a tool to project geopolitical power, contributing to the fragmentation of global economic systems. In response to these disruptions, countries are encouraged to diversify cooperation by promoting open regionalism, fostering plurilateral partnerships and strengthening sectoral collaboration (e.g. on artificial intelligence) and economic resilience. The decline in development aid cannot be compensated by individual actors alone. LMICs are forced to actively address financing gaps through improved conditions for investments, stronger domestic revenue generation, better macroeconomic management and efforts to curb illicit financial flows. The international community should support them in these efforts. Aid remains vital, especially for low-income countries and humanitarian emergencies. However, fairer and more reciprocal part-nerships should be developed, acknowledging mutual economic interests and based on knowledge sharing. Recent disruptive and polarising policy decisions, while theoretically reversible, have lasting negative effects on trust, budget priorities and international cooperation. Nevertheless, experts emphasise the potential to build new alliances, involving LMICs, for sustainability transitions, reformed global governance structures and alternative cooperation models. To seize these opportunities, leadership from countries that depend on rules-based international cooperation systems - especially middle powers - is considered essential for driving systemic change. |
| Keywords: | international cooperation, trade, sustainability, regionalism, multilateralism, self reliance, resilience, sustainable development, SDGs, geopolitics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:331221 |
| By: | Gabriele Guaitoli (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain) |
| Abstract: | What are the aggregate effects of housing supply-side policies, such as zoning reforms? In structural models, the answer involves characterising the equilibrium housing price function. I show that a housing price function should separately characterise how policies affect: 1) the response of house prices to new demand ("Elasticity Effect''); 2) the cost of satisfying existing housing demand ("Baseline Effect''). While the former can be calibrated to match estimates of price-demand elasticities such as Saiz (2010), the latter requires a separate calibration. However, popular models in Urban Economics and Economic Geography do not separately characterise and calibrate the Baseline and Elasticity Effects, introducing potential biases in the estimation of long-run policy effects. I propose a characterisation that makes such biases explicit, nests most popular characterisations, and allows to separately characterise and estimate the two effects. Calibrating the Baseline Effect to conservative empirical estimates from the literature, I find housing supply policy effects up to one order of magnitude larger than other characterisations applied to the same model. |
| Keywords: | housing supply, structural models, zoning, bias |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2516 |
| By: | Morick, Alexander; Perst, Florian; Schubart, Constantin |
| Abstract: | This Discussion Paper explores the potential and strategic application of generative artificial intelligence in content marketing, using the specialty chemicals industry as an example. Against the backdrop of the growing business relevance of the technology, concrete Use-Cases are identified in which generative AI can meaningfully support the production of content. A systematic evaluation of suitable tools, taking into account both functional and company-specific requirements, reveals which solutions are particularly well-suited for operational use. Practice-oriented recommendations are also derived, showing how the successful implementation of generative AI can be achieved within the framework of a structured change process to increase efficiency, foster creative processes, and enhance content quality. The results are based on a qualitative, exploratory research approach using semi-structured expert interviews. The results provide impetus for the structured integration of generative AI into content marketing within the specialty chemicals industry and contribute to the sustainable use of the technology at the intersection of digital advancement and business practice. |
| Keywords: | Generative Artificial Intelligence, Content Marketing, Potential Assessment, Strategy Development |
| JEL: | M31 M37 O33 L26 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhma:330683 |
| By: | Yukihiko Funaki; Yukio Koriyama; Satoshi Nakada; Yuki Tamura |
| Abstract: | We study efficient, linear, and symmetric (ELS) values, a central family of allocation rules for cooperative games with transferable-utility (TU-games) that includes the Shapley value, the CIS value, and the ENSC value. We first show that every ELS value can be written as the Shapley value of a suitably transformed TU-game. We then introduce three types of invariance axioms for fixed player populations. The first type consists of composition axioms, and the second type is active-player consistency. Each of these two types yields a characterization of a subclass of the ELS values that contains the family of least-square values. Finally, the third type is nullified-game consistency: we define three such axioms, and each axiom yields a characterization of one of the Shapley, CIS, and ENSC values. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.04996 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Jeanet Sinding Bentzen; Chun Chee Kok |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a survey of the literature on gender differences in religiosity and the influence of religion on gender-related economic and social outcomes. Part I examines why women tend to be more religious than men, discussing central explanations. Part II explores how religion impacts various gender-related outcomes, such as gender norms and attitudes, education, labor market participation, fertility, health, legal institutions and reforms, and discrimination. Within each domain, we distinguish between effects driven by individual religiosity (intensity of religious practice or belief) and those driven by their religious denomination. We synthesize findings from numerous studies, highlighting data sources, measures of religion and gender outcomes, and empirical strategies. We focus on studies with credible causal identification—such as natural experiments, instrumental variable approaches, and policy changes—to uncover the impact of religion on outcomes. Correlational studies are also reviewed to provide context. Across studies, the evidence suggests that religious teachings and participation often reinforce traditional gender roles, affecting women’s education, labor force participation, and fertility choices, although there are important nuances and exceptions. We also document instances where secular reforms or religious movements have altered these outcomes. The survey concludes by identifying gaps in the literature and suggesting directions for future research. An important take-away from our review is that rigorous empirical studies are scarce, leaving room for novel causal studies in this field. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, religion, religiosity, gender norms, education, fertility, labor markets, cultural transmission |
| JEL: | Z12 J16 J24 I21 J13 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12256 |
| By: | Haofei Yu; Fenghai Li; Jiaxuan You |
| Abstract: | Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across benchmarks--from knowledge quizzes and math reasoning to web-agent tasks--but these tests occur in static settings, lacking real dynamics and uncertainty. Consequently, they evaluate isolated reasoning or problem-solving rather than decision-making under uncertainty. To address this, we introduce LiveTradeBench, a live trading environment for evaluating LLM agents in realistic and evolving markets. LiveTradeBench follows three design principles: (i) Live data streaming of market prices and news, eliminating dependence on offline backtesting and preventing information leakage while capturing real-time uncertainty; (ii) a portfolio-management abstraction that extends control from single-asset actions to multi-asset allocation, integrating risk management and cross-asset reasoning; and (iii) multi-market evaluation across structurally distinct environments--U.S. stocks and Polymarket prediction markets--differing in volatility, liquidity, and information flow. At each step, an agent observes prices, news, and its portfolio, then outputs percentage allocations that balance risk and return. Using LiveTradeBench, we run 50-day live evaluations of 21 LLMs across families. Results show that (1) high LMArena scores do not imply superior trading outcomes; (2) models display distinct portfolio styles reflecting risk appetite and reasoning dynamics; and (3) some LLMs effectively leverage live signals to adapt decisions. These findings expose a gap between static evaluation and real-world competence, motivating benchmarks that test sequential decision making and consistency under live uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.03628 |
| By: | Bekkers, Eddy; Yilmaz, Ayse Nihal; Métivier, Jeanne; Tresa, Enxhi; Iunius, Lory; Xu, Ankai |
| Abstract: | In this paper we explore the impact of decarbonization on international trade and development employing a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE). We develop three long run stylized climate change scenarios: (i) Global Inaction (GI); (ii) Divided World (DW); and (iii) Cooperation towards Net Zero (CNZ). The CNZ scenario encompasses comprehensive measures resulting in a significant reduction in emissions to approximately 10 billion tons by 2050, contrasting with escalating emissions under GI and stagnation under DW. The analysis shows that the share of energy trade in total trade would fall substantially in CNZ, from 11% to 3%. Furthermore, the share of energy exported falls drastically since electricity is less tradable than fossil fuels. Exports of fossil fuel dependent countries will shift from fossil fuels to emission intensive trade exposed sectors and sophisticated manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | decarbonisation policies, net zero, energy trade, diversification |
| JEL: | F13 F18 F64 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:330671 |
| By: | George, Babu (Alcorn State University) |
| Abstract: | State Public Service Commissions face complex decisions when utilities incur extraordinary costs from disasters, fuel price spikes, or emergency infrastructure repairs. This paper examines five primary cost recovery methods, i.e., immediate pass-through, short-term amortization, rate base inclusion, securitization, and deferral, analyzing their distinct impacts on utility financial stability, customer affordability, and regulatory transparency. Drawing on a literature review of utility regulation theory, financial mechanisms, and empirical evidence, the study synthesizes theoretical foundations including natural monopoly theory and the regulatory compact with practical regulatory considerations. A detailed hypothetical case study included as appendix demonstrates how a $25 million extraordinary cost would be recovered under each method, providing complete mathematical calculations, customer bill impacts across residential, commercial, and industrial classes, and total cost comparisons over recovery periods ranging from three months to twenty years. The analysis reveals fundamental trade-offs: immediate recovery minimizes total costs but creates severe bill shock, while securitization offers the lowest monthly impact but highest total cost due to extended interest payments. The paper emphasizes that transparent modeling, reproducible calculations, and meaningful public engagement are essential for regulatory legitimacy. It concludes with best practice recommendations for regulators, utilities, and consumer advocates, arguing that method selection must be context-dependent, balancing cost magnitude, customer economic conditions, utility financial health, and regulatory precedent to achieve equitable and sustainable outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:49r5w_v1 |
| By: | Chongwoo Choe; Antoine Dubus; Noriaki Matsushima; Shiva Shekhar |
| Abstract: | Marketplace platforms are central players in online retail and are in an advantageous position to leverage data generated by third-party sellers. This paper analyzes how a platform's encroachment decision - whether to enter its marketplace as a direct competitor - is shaped by regulations that restrict its use of seller data. We show that the platform's encroachment decision follows a non-monotonic pattern: it enters against sellers with either relatively low or sufficiently high brand value, but remains a pure intermediary for intermediate brand values. The data ban regulation alters this strategy by making the platform more likely to exclude low brand-value sellers and more likely to accommodate high brand-value sellers. The implication is that, while such regulation can enhance competition in markets with high-value sellers, it can inadvertently harm sellers and reduce consumer surplus in emerging markets, where sellers typically lack brand recognition and depend on platform visibility. These results underscore the need for more nuanced regulatory approaches - promoting data sharing in emerging markets and targeted bans in mature, established markets - to better balance welfare and competition. |
| Keywords: | marketplace platforms, data regulations, digital markets act, innovation |
| JEL: | L21 L51 L42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12233 |
| By: | Eckelt, Marcus |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Forschungsbericht fasst die wesentlichen Ergebnisse einer repräsentativen Befragung von Auszubildenden in Deutschland zusammen. Im Rahmen des Forschungsprojekts CKoBeLeP Crowdwork und Crowdworker vor, während und nach der beruflichen Ausbildung - Kompetenz-/Subjektivierungseffekte, individuelle Beruflichkeit und lernförderliche Plattformgestaltung wurde diese Befragung als explorativer Zugang zum Forschungsgegenstand gewählt, da es bis dahin noch keine Forschung zu Crowdwork unter Auszubildenden in Deutschland gab. Ziel war es, relevante Daten zum Kontext zu gewinnen, d.h. zur objektiv bereits erfolgten Digitalisierung der Ausbildung und der Lebenswelten der Auszubildenden wie auch bzgl. der diesbezüglichen subjektiven Einschätzungen der Auszubildenden. |
| Keywords: | Auszubildende, Befragung, Digitalisierung, Crowdsourcing, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hsuopa:330689 |
| By: | Kampmann, David; Peters, Nils |
| Abstract: | Is the formation of venture capital (VC) markets a national phenomenon? Against the common view that VC emerged in the US in the post-WWII period and later (yet independently) in Europe, we argue that the uneven relation between US and UK VC markets was crucial for British VC formation since the 1980s. Based on an empirical analysis of secondary literature and financial data, the article demonstrates that this relation is better understood through the lens of international financial subordination and identifies three types of dependencies to qualify this relation: the dependencies of UK VC on US start-up investments, US growth capital, and US exit deals. This type of financial subordination is specific to ‘alternative finance’, because highly profitable VC exits kick-started a flywheel effect in UK VC in the 2000s, and the subsequent expansion of British VC went hand in hand with a concentration of capital because UK VC followed a ‘winners-take-all’ logic that is characteristic of alt-finance in general. This suggests, counterintuitively, that after UK VC formed, the US economy benefitted more in financial, economic, and technological terms from the growing British VC market than its UK counterpart mainly because most large exit deals took place in the US. |
| Keywords: | international financial subordination; dependency; technological innovation; US finance; UK start-up economy; venture capital |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130147 |
| By: | Nourhaine Nefzi (COGI); Abir Abid (COGI) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to dig deeper into understanding the exchange rates and uncertainty dependence. Using the novel Baker et al. (2020)'s daily Twitter Uncertainty Index and BRICS exchange rates, we investigate their extreme tail dependence within an original time-varying copula framework. Our analysis makes several noteworthy results. Evidence for Indian, Russian and South African currencies indicates an elliptical copulas' dominance implying neither asymmetric features nor extreme movements in their dependence structure with the global economic uncertainty. Importantly, Brazilian and Chinese currencies tail dependence is upward trending suggesting a safe-haven role in times of high global economic uncertainty including the recent COVID-19 pandemic. In such circumstances, these markets offer opportunities to significant gains through portfolio diversification. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05315 |
| By: | Armeli, Navid; Schmid, Katrin |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Report untersucht die sogenannte "vergleichende Darstellung" aus den Vergütungsberichten von DAX- und MDAXUnternehmen für das Geschäftsjahr 2023. - Die Unternehmen sind seit 2021 verpflichtet, über die jährlichen Veränderungen bei der Vergütung der Vorstände und der Durchschnittsvergütung der Beschäftigten zu berichten. Das ermöglicht Einblicke in die vertikale Vergütungsstruktur der Unternehmen und die Berechnung einer Pay Ratio zwischen Vorstand und Belegschaft. - Der Report zeigt, dass zwar alle Unternehmen ihrer Berichtspflicht formal nachkommen, die veröffentlichten Daten allerdings unterschiedlich aussagekräftig sind. - Ein Teil der Unternehmen veröffentlicht nur die Veränderungsraten der Jahreseinkommen in Prozent im Vergleich zum Vorjahr. Diese Art der Darstellung lässt keine Rückschlüsse auf die Pay Ratio zu und ist im Sinne einer transparenten Berichterstattung nahezu bedeutungslos. - Besonders aussagekräftig dagegen sind die veröffentlichten Einkommensdaten der Beschäftigten nach Region. Die Hälfte der DAX- und MDAX-Unternehmen veröffentlicht in der vergleichenden Darstellung das Durchschnittseinkommen ihrer in Deutschland tätigen Beschäftigten. Das erlaubt erstmals einen umfassenden Einblick in die "deutschen Verhältnisse" der Pay Ratio. - Der Report zeigt, dass die vergleichende Darstellung in den Vergütungsberichten für Arbeitnehmervertreter*innen in den Aufsichtsräten gut zugängliches und unbedingt zu nutzendes Datenmaterial liefert. - Zur Verbesserung der Transparenz und Vergleichbarkeit in der Berichterstattung zur vergleichenden Darstellung bedarf es aus Sicht der Autor*innen drei regulatorischer Anpassungen: (1) Verpflichtung zur Berichterstattung von absoluten Zahlen, zusätzlich zu den prozentualen jährlichen Veränderungsraten; (2) Verpflichtung zur Berichterstattung der Vergütung von inländischen Arbeitnehmer*innen und der Gesamtbelegschaft; (3) Verpflichtung zur Nutzung des Medians anstatt des Durchschnittwertes der Beschäftigteneinkommen. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsmbr:331229 |
| By: | Singhal, Mohit |
| Abstract: | Background: The U.S. opioid epidemic imposes a persistent and disproportionate economic burden on payers and communities, driven by complex interactions among clinical utilization, pharmacy benefit management (PBM) policies, and social determinants of health (SDOH). Despite extensive research on overdose and prescribing risk, few studies have quantified the cost burden of opioid use or examined how policy and community-level factors jointly shape it. Objective: This study develops an interpretable, machine-learning framework integrating PBM cost levers and SDOH indicators to predict and explain county-level variation in opioid-related spending from 2013–2023. The goal is to identify structural drivers of cost, simulate potential savings under policy and social interventions, and support data-driven resource allocation. Methods: Using CMS Medicare Part D data linked with County Health Rankings and U.S. Census indicators, a Random Forest regression model was trained on ten years of county-level data (≈3, 000 counties, 2013–2023). Key predictors included unemployment, income ratio, obesity, smoking, provider density, and PBM variables such as cost per claim and opioid prescribing rate. Model interpretability was achieved through SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis and policy simulations testing both PBM and SDOH interventions. Results: The model achieved high predictive accuracy (R² ≈ 0.97), explaining nearly all observed variation in opioid cost per capita. SHAP analysis revealed unemployment, mental-health-provider density, and income inequality as dominant drivers, while provider access and preventive-care variables exerted cost-mitigating effects. Simulated PBM levers (e.g., formulary tightening, utilization management) reduced predicted costs by 4–6%, while integrated SDOH improvements (e.g., +20% behavioral-health access, +10% primary care) achieved up to 17% savings—equivalent to approximately $23 billion nationally. The combined model demonstrated both statistical robustness and policy relevance. Conclusion: This study reframes the opioid crisis through an economic and structural lens, demonstrating that predictive modeling can translate public-health and PBM data into actionable fiscal insights. The proposed PBM–SDOH integration provides a scalable, transparent framework for targeting interventions in high-burden counties, optimizing healthcare spending, and informing evidence-based opioid policy. Keywords: Opioid costs, pharmacy benefit management, social determinants of health, Medicare Part D, machine learning, SHAP, predictive modeling, public health economics, health policy |
| Date: | 2025–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:c7rvx_v1 |
| By: | Baksy, Aniket (University of Melbourne); Chandler, Daniel (LSE); Lambert, Peter John (LSE & University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Using a novel proprietary survey of UK manufacturing sites, we study the impact on employment of arguably the two most important industrial automation technologies of the past fifty years: computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools and industrial robots. First, we document the growing prevalence of both technologies across a wide range of industries between 2005 and 2023. Second, we use a local-projection difference-in-difference design to show that plants that adopt these technologies for the first time increase their employment by 6% to 9% compared to non-adopting plants in the same industry. Third, we find that for both technologies, automation is associated with an increase in employment among industry-competitor sites, and a positive overall impact on industry-level employment. |
| Keywords: | Automation, Manufacturing, Employment, Technology Adoption, Robots JEL Classification: J23, L60, O33, D24, J63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:778 |
| By: | Taehyeon Koo; Zijian Guo |
| Abstract: | The synthetic control method estimates the causal effect by comparing the outcomes of a treated unit to a weighted average of control units that closely match the pre-treatment outcomes of the treated unit. This method presumes that the relationship between the potential outcomes of the treated and control units remains consistent before and after treatment. However, the estimator may become unreliable when these relationships shift or when control units are highly correlated. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distributionally Robust Synthetic Control (DRoSC) method by accommodating potential shifts in relationships and addressing high correlations among control units. The DRoSC method targets a new causal estimand defined as the optimizer of a worst-case optimization problem that checks through all possible synthetic weights that comply with the pre-treatment period. When the identification conditions for the classical synthetic control method hold, the DRoSC method targets the same causal effect as the synthetic control. When these conditions are violated, we show that this new causal estimand is a conservative proxy of the non-identifiable causal effect. We further show that the limiting distribution of the DRoSC estimator is non-normal and propose a novel inferential approach to characterize this non-normal limiting distribution. We demonstrate its finite-sample performance through numerical studies and an analysis of the economic impact of terrorism in the Basque Country. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.02632 |
| By: | Constantin Tielkes |
| Abstract: | Since the foundational work of Alonso, Muth and Mills, Urban Economists have viewed cities as monocentric entities centered around a Central Business District (CBD). As it is costly to travel from the periphery to the Center, prices are naturally lower in the periphery to compensate. While quite intuitive, the monocentric city model has often been scrutinized, as cities in reality are often polycentric and take a variety of shapes and forms. Economists have therefore been investigating if urban gradients actually exist as postulated by theory. Lately, there has also been a lot of interest in how urban gradients evolve over time. In the light of the rise of online retail and working from home in the last decade, are urban centers losing their appeal? We argue that a main problem in this literature has been the insufficient definition of what actually constitutes the center. We therefore use a novel approach to define the CBD. Using the universe of registered German businesses, we define the urban center via density thresholds akin and then investigate the price gradients for the entirety of all 1.108 cities in Germany. In our analysis we find that there is a large heterogeneity of German cities On average, urban centers are 11 % more expensive than the rest of the city. However, among cities with more than one million inhabitants, the gradient is 21 %, while 27 % of German cities even exhibit negative urban gradients. Over the last 14 years, gradients have decreased in only a few selected cities. Overall, they have been increasing. We find that a significant share of the price premium comes from the fact that apartments in the CBD are well connected to jobs and other destinations within the city. Once accounting for the connection to transport infrastructure, the urban gradients decline considerably but remain significant in many cities. This suggests that it is not as much urbanity but centrality that makes city centers more expensive. Our main contribution to the literature is a novel way of defining the CBD. In the theoretical literature, the CBD is usually defined as a point in the center of the city. In almost all studies, the empirical literature just adopts this definition. However, in the reality cities have often developed quite differently. In Germany, the destruction of cities in the second world war and 40 years of Socialism and centralized planning have also left a mark on cities. We therefore construct CBDs based on the actual density of commercial establishments. Among those establishments are retail, private and public services, restaurants and bars, hotels and cultural institutions. The dataset originates from Nexiga GmbH and contains over 8 million observations. For each city we determine the point with the maximum density of commercial establishments. We then define areas that achieve at least 90 % of this density as the commercial center and areas that feature between 60 and 90 % of the density as the residential center. About one third of apartments in German cities are thus defined to be in the center. Our methodology is able to handle the polycentricity problem that has plagued the literature for a long time. |
| Keywords: | Gentrification; Monocentric city model; Urban Dynamics; Urban Flight |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_108 |
| By: | Claire Crawford (Institute for Fiscal Studies; UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Robbie Maris (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Fabien Petit (University of Barcelona; UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Gill Wyness (Centre for Economic Performance, LSE; UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities) |
| Abstract: | Tuition fees are a critical source of revenue for universities, yet how student demand responds to changes in fees remains poorly understood. Using administrative data from one of the largest UK universities between 2019 and 2025, we estimate the price elasticity of demand for both undergraduate and postgraduate degrees. Our analysis distinguishes between the application and enrolment stages, accounts for persistence in demand across cohorts, and incorporates fee data from competitor institutions to estimate cross-price elasticities. We find that postgraduate students are substantially more price-sensitive than undergraduates, with estimated elasticities of -0.27 for applications and -0.13 for enrolments. Undergraduate demand is largely price-inelastic. Elasticities vary sharply across countries: applicants from emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, and Turkey display positive application elasticities - consistent with tuition functioning as a signal of quality - while students from Europe and the Americas exhibit conventional price sensitivity. Subject-level variation is more muted: demand for engineering and other STEM disciplines is effectively inelastic, consistent with high expected earnings, while other subjects display stronger negative elasticities. We also document strong persistence in demand across cohorts within countries, suggesting peer-driven information spillovers. Finally, we find limited responsiveness to competitors' tuition at the application stage but positive cross-price elasticity at enrolment, indicating substitution effects once offers are received. These results provide the most comprehensive and recent evidence on tuition responsiveness in UK higher education, highlighting how price sensitivity differs across stages, markets, and subjects. |
| Keywords: | Higher Education; Tuition Fees; Price Elasticity; International Students; Cross-Price Elasticity. |
| JEL: | I22 I23 D12 L11 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:25-13 |
| By: | Francisco Pino; Laura Salisbury |
| Abstract: | Campaign tours have become an essential component of U.S. presidential elections. How and when did they begin? We explore the early history of in-person political campaigning in the United States by reconstructing the first presidential campaign tours from historical newspaper clippings. We analyze the decision to campaign, the determinants of where candidates campaigned, and the outcomes of early in-person campaigns. We document an evolving norm of campaigning. This norm evolved well after the expansion of the railroad network. While a national railroad network was a necessary precondition for campaigning to evolve, our findings point to other factors – such as growing urbanization and the decline of federal patronage machines – playing a more important role in the growth of campaigning. We find evidence that being visited on a campaign tour increased voter turnout in a county. However, we do not find a clear effect of campaign visits of a given candidate on his electoral performance. |
| JEL: | N0 P0 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34447 |
| By: | Emanuele Luzzi (Swiss Finance Institute - USI Lugano); Paul Schneider (University of Lugano - Institute of Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Rohan Sen (USI Lugano) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the stochastic discount factor (SDF) by recovering the Sharpe-optimal nonlinear claim through a trading strategy in delta-hedged option portfolios. Our nonparametric approach leverages the classical duality between the minimum-variance SDF and the maximum Sharpe ratio portfolio, and comes with finite-sample performance guarantees, as well as a formal testing framework for the monotonicity and convexity of the SDF. We perform an empirical study in the S&P 500 market and find heterogeneous shapes across different states of the world as measured by the price of volatility and the maturities of options. While SDF implied by monthly options are monotonically decreasing, their convexity/concavity is less pronounced. Ultra-short ODTE options, on the contrary, exhibit a pronounced U-shape in higher-volatility states. Our empirical results are robust across various models of the information set. |
| Keywords: | Machine Learning, Portfolio Choice, Options, Asset Pricing, Stochastic Discount Factor |
| JEL: | C14 C58 G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2587 |
| By: | Jakob Kozak; Hannah Salzberger; Wolfgang Schäfers |
| Abstract: | Physical climate risks pose a threat to real estate values around the world. The rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and floods, have led to an increased vulnerability of the property sector to physical climate risks. While insurance currently serves as a safeguard against certain risks, the advent of climate change may result in elevated premiums, more rigorous underwriting standards, and potential uninsurability in high-risk regions. This study aims to examine whether physical climate risks at the property level are reflected in the equity returns and bond risk premia of U.S. REITs. Central to the analysis is the use of physical climate risk scores. First, we obtain data on REIT asset coordinates and other property information from S&P Capital IQ Pro. Second, the data on REIT portfolios is imported into climate risk tools to obtain asset-level climate risk scores for each hazard. These physical climate risk assessment tools are used in the real estate industry by institutional investors and reinsurance companies. In addition, for robustness, we aim to use publicly available data on physical climate risk from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Moreover, control variables such as bond characteristics, macroeconomic indicators, equity market factors, and REIT balance sheet data are used to capture additional drivers of REIT equity returns and bond risk premia. The methods include cross-sectional OLS regression analysis on the one hand and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models, combined with the explainable AI method Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) on the other hand. The latter approach is used to decompose the variation in risk premia, thereby providing further insights into the influence of climate risks. This approach not only captures potential non-linear relationships but also serves to verify the robustness of the regression results. Furthermore, the study compares outcomes across REITs operating in different regions to assess whether geographic diversification mitigates the impact of climate risks on bond pricing. Additionally, the robustness of climate risk scores generated by different tools is evaluated to determine their reliability in financial decision-making. In conclusion, these findings contribute to the understanding of how market participants price physical climate risks and provide guidance for REIT managers in assessing the impact of climate risks on the cost of equity and public debt. |
| Keywords: | Bonds; Physical Climate Risk; real estate investment trust (REIT); Stocks |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_141 |
| By: | Yukihiko Funaki; Yukio Koriyama; Satoshi Nakada; Yuki Tamura |
| Abstract: | We study the proportional division value in TU-games, which distributes the worth of the grand coalition in proportion to each player's stand-alone worth. Focusing on fixed-population consistency, we characterize the proportional division value through three types of axioms: a homogeneity axiom, composition axioms, and a nullified-game consistency axiom. The homogeneity axiom captures scale invariance with respect to the grand coalition's worth. The composition axioms ensure that payoffs remain consistent when the game is decomposed and recomposed. The nullified-game consistency axiom requires that when some players' payoffs are fixed, the solution for the remaining players, computed in the game adjusted to account for these fixed payoffs, coincides with their original payoffs. Together with efficiency and a fairness-related axiom, these axioms characterize the proportional division value. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05001 |
| By: | Harun Tanrivermis; Salih Demirkaya |
| Abstract: | Office buildings, as a form of real estate, have gained increased significance with industrialisation, and are currently viewed as the hub of trade and services. The transformation of office buildings, extensively utilised by the service sector, is shaped according to contemporary demands. In particular, spatial design and organisation provide significant advantages in office management, and leveraging management factors becomes easier when the design caters to specific needs. In the economic analysis of office investments, a return assessment was conducted based on investment costs, rental income, vacancy rates, and operating expenses, revealing the outcomes of changes following the COVID-19 pandemic, both generally and specifically for the province of Ankara. Regarding investment success, market research has been performed for individually used offices and plaza-type or mixed used offices with mass usage in Ankara, aiming to identify problems, favourable situations, and current market trends within the research area. The study examines the benefits gained through successful investment, focusing on investment economics, user expectations, and satisfaction levels. By presenting the results obtained within this defined scope, the research seeks to provide suggestive findings for potential future investments and to establish a foundation for future spatial arrangements. The research revealed that the growing shift towards remote work, accelerated by developments during the COVID-19 pandemic, has had a significant influence on the dynamics of working life. While existing office spaces have not undergone notable spatial changes due to prevailing contractual obligations and established usage patterns, rising operational costs have led to an increasing preference for smaller office units among newly established enterprises. The findings, focused on prospective office developments in Ankara, indicate a clear demand for office spaces that include social amenities, parking facilities, and central locations, alongside functional features and ergonomic considerations such as heating, lighting, acoustics, colour schemes, and ventilation to enhance employee comfort. Furthermore, despite a marked preference for offices managed by professional facility management services due to the managerial convenience and service efficiency they offer, it is anticipated that there will be a concurrent increase in the demand for small-scale office units characterised by lower energy consumption and reduced management costs. |
| Keywords: | Change in office markets; Investor and user expectations; Office investments; Project development and investment economics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_289 |
| By: | Zhiguo He; Péter Kondor; Jessica S. Li |
| Abstract: | Standard demand elasticity estimation treats investors' demand slopes as stable objects that can be traced out by exogenous residual supply shifts. We show this identification strategy fails in dynamic settings: supply shocks cause demand curves to tilt and shift through general equilibrium effects. The mechanism is intuitive—investors' demand depends on the entire distribution of current and future returns, including volatility, covariances, and correlations with investment opportunities. Supply shocks that change today's prices inevitably reshape future return distributions, moving the demand curve itself. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model to quantify this mismeasurement. The measured slope is approximately 40% of its conceptual counterpart, implying that demand curves are substantially steeper than estimated. This distortion operates through two channels: endogenous risk (altered volatility and covariances) and amplified intertemporal hedging (changed correlation with investment opportunities). The distortion remains sizable even for infinitesimal or purely transitory shocks. |
| JEL: | D50 E10 G10 G11 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34450 |
| By: | Carmelo Rodríguez à lvarez (Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain)) |
| Abstract: | We consider strategy-proof social choice correspondences (SCCs) –mappings from preference profiles to sets of alternatives– when individuals are endowed with single-peaked preferences over alternatives. We interpret the selected sets of alternatives as the basis for lotteries that determine the final social choice, and consider that agents’ preferences over sets are consistent with Expected Utility Theory and Bayesian updating from an initial probability assessment over the full set of alternatives. We exploit the relation between SCCs and probabilistic decision schemes –mappings from preference profiles to lotteries over alternatives–, to characterize the family of SCCs that satisfy strategy-proofness and unanimity for arbitrary initial probability assessments. We extend the analysis to multi-dimensional convex spaces of alternatives under the uniform initial probability assessment. |
| Keywords: | Strategy-Proofness; Single-Peaked Preferences; Social Choice Correspondences. |
| JEL: | C71 D71 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:2506 |
| By: | Abay, Kibrom A.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | The recent surge in armed conflicts across Africa is increasing demand for humanitarian and social assistance, creating significant pressure on humanitarian actors to deliver life-saving support amid insecurity and constrained resources. The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis, triggering an acute and multidimensional humanitarian emergency requiring urgent and substantial international support. These armed conflicts in Africa are threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades. While armed conflicts and associated crises increase the need for assistance, they simultaneously undermine the capacity to deliver it. In conflict-affected settings, the operational environment is often marked by damaged infrastructure, disrupted markets, weakened institutions, and limited humanitarian access. These challenges hinder the effectiveness, targeting, and coverage of social protection and humanitarian aid programs (Ghorpade, 2017; 2020; Lind et al., 2022). Moreover, the proliferation of armed groups—including both state and non-state actors—can obstruct aid delivery or divert assistance, further limiting program reach and impact. Compounding these challenges is a widening humanitarian financing gap, driven by escalating needs and declining donor contributions. In response, development and humanitarian actors are increasingly exploring cost-effective delivery mechanisms to improve efficiency, transparency, and reach of humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations. Among these, digital transfers, including mobile money, offer promising avenues for delivering assistance in fragile settings where conventional approaches may be impractical or insecure. This brief draws on evidence from Sudan to assess the feasibility and demand for digital transfers in humanitarian response. It explores emerging practices and offers insights for policymakers, donors, and implementing agencies aiming to adapt assistance modalities to meet the challenges of protracted crises. |
| Keywords: | conflicts; aid programmes; poverty; capacity assessment; digital technology; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:175477 |
| By: | Junming Chen |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the issue of “should monetary policy lean against rational asset price bubbles†by establishing an analytically tractable New Keynesian model with endogenous capital accumulation. Rational bubbles may exist in equilibrium because of the extra liquidity they generate for financially constrained firms when a lumpy investment opportunity arrives. Under certain conditions, bounded bubble-driven fluctuations (in output) may emerge via both supply-side and demand-side mechanisms. The monetary policy analyses of the model do not strongly favor a leaning-against-the-bubble strategy and emphasize a special overreaction risk that it may suffer from relative to its conventional counterpart. |
| Keywords: | rational asset price bubbles, monetary policy, financing constraints, New Keynesian model |
| JEL: | E12 E22 E32 E44 E52 E63 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:25/04 |
| By: | Diego Comin (Dartmouth College, NBER, and CEPR (E-mail: diego.comin@dartmouth.edu)); Robert C. Johnson (University of Notre Dame, and NBER (E-mail: rjohns24@nd.edu)); Callum Jones (Federal Reserve Board (E-mail: callum.j.jones@frb.gov)) |
| Abstract: | We develop a New Keynesian framework to evaluate how potentially binding capacity constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that binding constraints for domestic and foreign producers shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves up. Further, data on prices and quantities together identify whether constraints bind due to increased demand or reductions in capacity. Applying the model to interpret recent US data, we find that binding constraints in the goods sector explain half of the increase in inflation during 2021-2022. In particular, tight capacity served to amplify the impact of loose monetary policy in 2021, fueling the inflation takeoff. |
| Keywords: | inflation, supply chain, occasionally binding constraints |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E62 F63 D24 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-15 |
| By: | Vitalija Danivska; Hilde Remoy |
| Abstract: | The recent years have been difficult for many commercial properties. Especially offices experienced low utilization due to the increase of remote work practices after the global pandemic. Whilst office spaces in many European countries remain underutilized, some countries also experience high differences in occupancy throughout the week (e.g. ‘camel week’ in the Netherlands, ‘TWaTs’ in Australia). This phenomenon highlights a pressing need for innovative strategies to adapt to evolving demands and usage patterns, and maximize the value of office spaces. This research aims to identify and evaluate new approaches to space management that address these challenges. To achieve this, a series of interactions with stakeholders are planned. Here a report on the panel discussion with asset managers is presented. The structured discussion facilitated an exchange of ideas on the latest strategies and provided a platform for identifying the most pressing issues in the current landscape of space management. The results of this study include a curated list of strategies that asset managers are employing to adapt to changing occupancy patterns and new demands. The study also highlights key issues faced by asset managers, such as the financial implications of underutilized spaces, the impact of remote work on long-term planning, and the need for sustainable practices in space management. This research serves as a resource for researchers aiming to deepen their understanding of how space management strategies evolve to meet changing demands of users. It offers a better understanding of potential to increase flexibility in space management and highlights areas for further research. The findings also offer valuable insights for asset managers, real estate professionals, and organizational leaders striving to meet the changing demands of office users while ensuring operational efficiency and sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Asset Management; Facilities Management; Office utilisation; Strategic Management |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_94 |
| By: | Anmar Kareem; Alexander Aue |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the performance of classical time series models in forecasting Bitcoin prices, focusing on ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and EGARCH. Daily price data from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed, with models trained on the first 90 percent and tested on the final 10 percent. Forecast accuracy was assessed using MAE, RMSE, AIC, and BIC. The results show that ARIMA provided the strongest forecasts for short-run log-price dynamics, while EGARCH offered the best fit for volatility by capturing asymmetry in responses to shocks. These findings suggest that despite Bitcoin's extreme volatility, classical time series models remain valuable for short-run forecasting. The study contributes to understanding cryptocurrency predictability and sets the stage for future work integrating machine learning and macroeconomic variables. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.06224 |
| By: | Manan Vyas; M. Mija\'il Mart\'inez-Ramos; Parisa Majari; Thomas H. Seligman |
| Abstract: | Starting from the Pearson Correlation Matrix of stock returns and from the desire to obtain a reduced number of parameters relevant for the dynamics of a financial market, we propose to take the idea of a sectorial matrix, which would have a large number of parameters, to the reduced picture of a real symmetric $2 \times 2$ matrix, extreme case, that still conserves the desirable feature that the average correlation can be one of the parameters. This is achieved by averaging the correlation matrix over blocks created by choosing two subsets of stocks for rows and columns and averaging over each of the resulting blocks. Averaging over these blocks, we retain the average of the correlation matrix. We shall use a random selection for two equal block sizes as well as two specific, hopefully relevant, ones that do not produce equal block sizes. The results show that one of the non-random choices has somewhat different properties, whose meaning will have to be analyzed from an economy point of view. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05463 |
| By: | Ana Flávia Machado (Cedeplar/UFMG); Mariangela Furlan Antigo (Cedeplar/UFMG); Izabel Cristina Carvalho de Oliveira (Cedeplar/UFMG); Lucas Ribas (Cedeplar/UFMG); Lorena Ferrari Auareck (UFMG); Cinthia Santos Silva (Cedeplar/UFMG); Glenda Nunes Gomes (UFV) |
| Abstract: | The model developed by Throsby in A work-preference model of artist behaviour, in 1994, has given rise to a series of theoretical and empirical works to assess whether the insertion of artists as workers is due to non-pecuniary issues such as acceptance by peers and fans, idiosyncratic life, and free expression of their creativity vis-à-vis pecuniary returns. In some studies, it is shown that, on average, artists are more satisfied with their work than other professionals, as exposed by Bille et al. (2013) and Bille, Løyland, and Holm (2017). Inspired by Bille et al. (2017), this paper investigates the labor supply of artists, aged between 18 and 65 years old, residing in urban areas in Brazil. The research covers the period from 2016 to 2022. The data source is the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNADC/ IBGE), organized as a rotating panel with five visits to the same household. The period between 2016 and 2022 is considered in the present study. The results show that levels of low earnings in other jobs have a positive relationship with artistic work hours and a negative relationship with leisure hours, while higher wage levels show an inverse relationship with leisure hours. |
| Keywords: | artist, labor, supply, urban, Brazil |
| JEL: | Z1 J44 E24 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td686 |
| By: | Stella Keijzer; Kunal Sen |
| Abstract: | We revisit the iconic Kuznets (1955) paper, which postulated a clear positive relationship between inequality and economic development in the early stages of structural transformation. Using a newly released global dataset on income inequality—the WIID Companion—we set out the stylized facts of the Kuznets curve for a range of developing and developed countries. We examine the relationship between the net income Gini and per capita income, as well as the relationship between the net income Gini and structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | Kuznets, Inequality, Economic development, Structural transformation, Manufacturing, Services |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-79 |
| By: | Barrales-Ruiz, Jose; Mendieta-Munoz, Ivan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the importance of time-varying parameters in US macro-financial linkages. To do so, we adopt a flexible hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian vector autoregression with stochastic volatility empirical framework. We find that, first, macro-financial linkages are mainly characterized as hybrid time-varying interactions, adequately captured by a combination of stochastic volatility, constant parameters on most lagged effects, and time-varying parameters that mainly capture the contemporaneous effects of macroeconomic variables on financial variables. Second, the relative change in the size of financial shocks, captured by their respective stochastic volatility components, is the main driver of the observed time-varying effects of financial variables on macroeconomic outcomes during periods of financial stress. Third, the combined contribution of credit spread, house and stock prices shocks to unemployment (GDP growth and inflation) fluctuates from approximately 20% (5%) in normal times to 60% (30%) during the Global Financial Crisis, thus indicating that financial shocks affect more importantly labor market outcomes. Fourth, macroeconomic variables respond more significantly to credit spread and house price shocks. Fifth, GDP growth and inflation react differently to financial shocks: while house price shocks and stock price shocks act as demand-type shocks by moving both variables in the same direction; credit spread shocks act as supply-type shocks by moving both variables in opposite directions. |
| Keywords: | financial shocks, macro-financial linkages, model selection, time-varying parameter vector autoregressions, stochastic volatility |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C52 E30 E44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:330707 |
| By: | Francisco Arizala; Santiago Bazdresch; Tomohide Mineyama; Shiqing Hua |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on inflation expectations across a large sample of advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMs). We identify episodes of significant fiscal adjustment using both quantitative thresholds and a narrative approach and find that such episodes are associated with statistically significant changes in inflation expectations in EMs while the responses are muted in AEs. We also document that the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation expectations is more pronounced in high-inflation environments and under weak fiscal positions. Additionally, we explore how market perceptions of sovereign risk, as well as monetary and exchange rate frameworks, influence the transmission of fiscal policy to inflation expectations. Our empirical results suggest that it is especially important for EMs to implement prudent fiscal policy as it may help reduce inflationary pressures and inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Consolidations; Inflation Expectations; Narrative Approach |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/231 |
| By: | Roland Füss (Swiss Finance Institute; University of St. Gallen - School of Finance); Stefan Morkoetter (University of St. Gallen - School of Finance; University of St.Gallen / St.Gallen Institute of Management in Asia); Dominic Rainsborough; Tereza Tykvova (University of St. Gallen - Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of pricing in buyout transactions and their implications for deal returns and value creation. We use a proprietary dataset of 1, 592 transactions initiated by 344 private equity funds between 1999 and 2018. We find that entry multiples positively relate to deal competition and industry factors such as growth and trading multiples. Exit multiples are negatively correlated with fund cycle stage and positively linked to buyer competition, with no significant relationship to prevailing industry conditions. Entry pricing is negatively related to deal performance. Higher entry valuations are associated with a greater reliance on EBITDA growth, while the scope for multiple expansion diminishes. |
| Keywords: | Buyout, Private Equity, Performance, Pricing, Value Creation |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2592 |
| By: | Martín Trombetta (Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA–CONICET). Buenos Aires, Argentina.) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies intergenerational occupational mobility in Argentina using two nationally representative retrospective household surveys. It estimates the transmission of parents’ job attributes to their children through OLS, instrumental variables, and unconditional quantile regressions. Results show strong persistence in job skill level and occupational socioeconomic status, while rank, establishment size, and industry correlate across generations but weaken when IV is applied. Quantile regressions indicate persistence is driven by the right tail—higher‑status jobs—implying sizable effects on social mobility and equality of opportunity. |
| Keywords: | Social mobility; Intergenerational transmission; Occupational mobility; Labor market |
| JEL: | B15 C1 E02 H41 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:2025-106 |
| By: | Salahodjaev, Raufhon |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between globalization and life satisfaction in Europe and Central Asia over the period of 2005 to 2018. Using the KOF index of globalization, we documented the non-linear (U-shaped) relationship between globalization and subjective wellbeing. Once we account for endogeneity and simultaneity with the aid of a two-step GMM estimator, the turning point is 66 points, which is approximate to the levels of globalization in Albania in 2018. We also report that the sub-dimension of globalization (political, economic and social) are also non-linearly related to life satisfaction. The results are robust to a number of tests. |
| Keywords: | globalization, life satisfaction, Europe and Central Asia |
| JEL: | F6 F60 |
| Date: | 2025–05–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125959 |
| By: | Ardelia L. Amardana (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Diana Barro (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Marco Corazza (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | Sustainability in financial markets has gained attention. This study addresses it by enhancing portfolio optimization through as additional inputs alongside price data that can improve stock return prediction. Using LSTM models with RMSProp optimizer performs best in consistency of minimizing prediction errors and given the ability to capture complex pattern between price, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and environmental scores (E-Scores). This study uses data from the EURO STOXX 50 between 2016 and 2022, focusing on out-of-sample weekly return predictions in 2022. Four model setups are tested: price-only, and price combined with GHG, E-score, or both. Our findings show that incorporating the E-Score improves price and return predictions in several sectors, whereas some sectors show limited benefit, indicating sustainability information may already be priced in. Additionally, in portfolio optimization shows that models including E-Score gives better performance across different holding periods by setting more effective weightings and aligning closely with our benchmark. This results provides further evidence in the following year 2023 and EURO STOXX 50 ESG performance. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Indicators; Long Short Term Memory; Return Prediction; Portfolio Optimization |
| JEL: | C45 C53 C63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:25 |
| By: | Alexander W. Bloedel; Weijie Zhong |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a framework for modeling the cost of information acquisition based on the principle of cost-minimization. We study the reduced-form \emph{indirect cost} of information generated by the sequential minimization of a primitive \emph{direct cost} function. Indirect cost functions: (i) are characterized by a novel recursive property, \emph{sequential learning-proofness}; (ii) provide an optimization foundation for the popular class of ``uniformly posterior separable'' costs; and (iii) can often be tractably calculated from their underlying direct costs. We apply the framework by identifying fundamental modeling tradeoffs in the rational inattention literature and two new indirect cost functions that balance these tradeoffs. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05466 |
| By: | Valetto, Pietro; Marx, Ive |
| Abstract: | Asset tests are widely employed to ensure that welfare resources are targeted efficiently and equitably to people that do not have the resources to be self-sufficient. This paper looks at how asset testing in social welfare programs works in the European Union and the United States and reviews the evidence on the consequences of asset testing for eligibility and behavior. For that purpose, we follow the PRISMA guidelines for study selection and synthesis, systematically reviewing 22 peer-reviewed studies published between 2014 and 2024, covering the United States and European Union, to assess the impact of asset testing. Our review finds that the real-world implementation of asset tests often undermines their stated goal of poverty reduction. While asset tests can improve targeting, they frequently discourage savings, perpetuate financial insecurity, and create administrative barriers that reduce participation among the most vulnerable. Hard thresholds incentivize dissaving and trap households in precariousness and long-term dependency, while administrative complexity often offsets any efficiency gains. Recent policy reforms-including higher thresholds, inflation-indexing, and asset exemptions-offer promising alternatives, but a persistent tension remains between targeting efficiency and poverty alleviation. We conclude that graduated approaches rather than straight disqualification better align welfare eligibility with the goals of financial resilience and poverty reduction. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7ha9w_v1 |
| By: | Barra Novoa, Rodrigo |
| Abstract: | The study examines the evolution of Chile’s industrial policy between 1990 and 2022 through the lens of state capacity, innovation, and endogenous development. In a global context where governments are reclaiming a proactive role in fostering innovation, Chile presents a paradox. It is a stable and open economy that has expanded investment in science, technology, and innovation but still faces structural barriers to turning that investment into sustainable capabilities. Drawing on the works of Mazzucato, Aghion, Howitt, Mokyr, Samuelson, and Sampedro, the research integrates evolutionary economics, public policy, and humanist ethics to assess Chile’s capacity for innovation-driven transformation. Using a longitudinal case study approach and official data, the study finds institutional progress but persistent coordination gaps, regional disparities, and a fragile culture of knowledge. It concludes that inclusive and sustainable innovation will require adaptive governance, long-term vision, and an ethical understanding of innovation as a public good. |
| Keywords: | State capacity, Innovation, endogenous development, industrial policy, Chile, entrepreneurial state |
| JEL: | O25 O1 O38 E02 L52 P42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:330597 |
| By: | Dimitris Georgarakos (European Central Bank (E-mail: Dimitris.Georgarakos@ecb.europa.eu)); Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley (E-mail: ygorodni@econ.berkeley.edu)); Olivier Coibion (University of Texas at Austin (E-mail: ocoibion@austin.utexas.edu)); Geoff Kenny (European Central Bank (E-mail: geoff.kenny@ecb.europa.eu)) |
| Abstract: | We implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that generates independent variation in the inflation expectations and the uncertainty about future inflation of European households. This variation allows us to assess how both first and second moments of inflation expectations separately affect subsequent household decisions. We document several key findings. First, higher inflation uncertainty leads households to reduce their subsequent durable goods purchases for several months, while a higher expected level of inflation increases them. Second, an increase in uncertainty about inflation induces households to tilt their portfolios towards safe and away from riskier asset holdings. Third, higher inflation uncertainty encourages household job search consistent with a strong precautionary motive for labor supply, leading to higher subsequent employment among the unemployed and less part-time employment among the alreadyemployed. Finally, we document that the level of inflation expectations has a different effect from uncertainty in inflation expectations and thus it is crucial to take into account both to measure their separate effects on decisions and in policy communication. |
| Keywords: | inflation uncertainty, consumption, household finance, labor supply, Consumer Expectations Survey |
| JEL: | E31 C83 D84 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-12 |
| By: | Bray, Sean; Bunn, Daniel; Gaul, Johannes; Spengel, Christoph |
| Abstract: | For the better part of the last decade, the global minimum tax, or Pillar Two, has dominated international tax policy discussions. Developing out of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Project at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Pillar Two's main objective is to ensure that multinational enterprises (MNEs) with a consolidated group revenue of over EUR 750 million pay an effective tax rate of at least 15 percent in each jurisdiction where they earn profit. Some portion of the Pillar Two model rules have been adopted by several dozen countries around the world, but, importantly, not by other large economies such as the United States, India, or China. This especially puts European MNEs at a competitive disadvantage vis-àvis jurisdictions without a domestic minimum tax system. Our estimates show that the additional compliance costs for affected European MNEs amount to EUR 1.2 billion (up to EUR 2.0 billion) and total recurring costs amount to EUR 517 million p.a. (up to EUR 865 million p.a.). Due to the incentive for jurisdictions to implement a qualified domestic minimum top-up tax (QDMTT), Pillar Two leaves a geographic asymmetry. Additional tax revenues would predominantly accrue to low-tax jurisdictions, with hightax jurisdictions receiving little to no increase. At the same time, it is likely that MNEs expense compliance costs in the jurisdictions where they are headquartered, often high-tax jurisdictions. Furthermore, Pillar Two incentivizes jurisdictions to move from competition on tax rates to less transparent subsidies, which could also result in less disposable tax revenue. The combination of losing international competitiveness, increasing compliance costs for firms and tax authorities, and the lack of significantly more revenue is forcing some Member States to reconsider the policy altogether. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:331233 |
| By: | Sarah R. Cohodes; Katherine B. Leu |
| Abstract: | Faculty sexual misconduct targeted at students is a widespread problem. The consequences of such incidents include direct harm to victims and may also entail a loss to science if students who encounter misconduct become discouraged from continuing their studies in their chosen field. We link publicly available information on degree completion by institution, academic field, and gender to a database of faculty sexual misconduct incidents verified in the media or court cases. Then, we employ a stacked event study approach to document the extent to which faculty sexual misconduct decreases in-field degree completion. Exposure to a field-specific faculty sexual misconduct incident decreases degree completion in that field by 3.4 percent four years after the incident. This decline is driven by incidents occurring after 2015, among which we observe a 7 percent decline in in-field degree completion. Students exit majors dominated by men, but this shift has little effect on predicted earnings because students shift away from both high- and low-earning majors. |
| JEL: | I23 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34456 |
| By: | Daniel Montolio (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Guillem Riambau (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB) |
| Abstract: | We conduct an online survey across four countries of the European Union (Germany, Ireland, Poland, and Spain) to study how the socio-economic determinants of their citizens condition their ability to detect fake headlines and their likelihood of sharing them using social media. Additionally, we analyze the impact of attitudinal and ideological variables on the probability of detecting (and sharing) fake news. Results point to a significant role of some socio-economic and political variables in determining both the probability of detecting and sharing fake news on social media; results also show interesting country heterogeneity. Political headlines are more likely to be misclassified, which underscores the challenge of overcoming ideological biases in media consumption. We highlight the importance of fostering digital literacy, especially among young and more vulnerable individuals, to promote responsible democratic citizenship. |
| Keywords: | Fake News, Misinformation, Social Media, Survey, Attitudes |
| JEL: | D90 D91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-11 |
| By: | Nollenberger, Jeremiah |
| Abstract: | Pro-cyclical fiscal policy is considered harmful. Nonetheless, pro-cyclicality is widespread and the cyclicality of fiscal policy isstrongly heterogenous in advanced economies. This paper investigates how differences in the cyclicality of fiscal policy can be understood through the lens of Varieties of Capitalism (VoC). The VoC-perspective argues for systematic differences between coordinated market economies (CMEs) and liberal market economies (LMEs). Because of consensus-based decision making and a wage bargaining system characterized by economy-wide large but non-encompassing wage setters, fiscal policy is reasoned to be less expansionary during downturns in CMEs and thus less counter-cyclical. During upswings, however, both channels may aid stronger fiscal retrenchment, making CMEs more fiscally conservative rather than less counter-cyclical overall. Thus far, the empirical literature has only investigated the overall differences in the cyclicality of fiscal policy between LMEs and CMEs, reporting contradictory results. Building and expanding on this literature, we analyze an unbalanced panel of 29 OECD countries from 1985 to 2021. We find LMEs to be consistently more counter-cyclical than CMEs, due to CMEs being less expansionary during downturns. During upswings, however, we do not identify a systematic difference between the archetypes. We furthermore find dependent market economies (DMEs) and mixed market economies (MMEs) to be more expansive during good times than the CME-group. Our results thus suggest that the capacity for counter-cyclical fiscal policy is deeply embedded in national institutional arrangements, rather than being merely a technical matter. Our findings aid in furthering our understanding of the institutional underpinnings of the export reliance in CMEs and interest rate differentials across Eurozone countries. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Comparative Political Economy, Business Cycle, Institutions, Varieties of Capitalism |
| JEL: | E62 E32 H30 P51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:330684 |
| By: | Mark-Oliver Wolf |
| Abstract: | The Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) calculation under Solvency II is computationally intensive, relying on the estimation of own funds. Regulation mandates the direct estimation method. It has been proven that under specific assumptions, the indirect method results in the same estimate. We study their comparative properties and give novel insights. First, we provide a straightforward proof that the direct and indirect estimators for own funds converge to the same value. Second, we introduce a novel family of mixed estimators that encompasses the direct and indirect methods as its edge cases. Third, we leverage these estimators to develop powerful variance reduction techniques, constructing a single control variate from the direct and indirect estimators and a multi-control variate framework using subsets of the mixed family. These techniques can be combined with existing methods like Least-Squares Monte Carlo. We evaluate the estimators on three simplified asset-liability management models of a German life insurer, Bauer's model MUST and IS case from Bauer et al. (2006), and openIRM by Wolf et al. (2025). Our analysis confirms that neither the direct nor indirect estimator is universally superior, though the indirect method consistently outperforms the direct one in more realistic settings. The proposed control variate techniques show significant potential, in some cases reducing variance to one-tenth of that from the standard direct estimator. However, we also identify scenarios where improvements are marginal, highlighting the model-dependent nature of their efficacy. The source code is publicly available at https://gitlab.cc-asp.fraunhofer.de/itwm -fm-lv-public/wolf-estimation-of-own-fun ds. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.04412 |
| By: | Zerong Chen |
| Abstract: | Evolutionary Finance explores the "survival and extinction" questions of investment strategies (portfolio rules) in the market selection process. It models the stochastic dynamics of financial markets based on behavioral and evolutionary principles, where asset prices are determined endogenously by short-run equilibrium between supply and demand, arising from the interaction of competing portfolio rules. This paper presents a survey of developments in Evolutionary Finance with a focus on long-lived, dividend-paying risky securities, where the budget of each investor comes from asset dividends and capital gains. We review several key models in this area addressing the following problems in order: 1) the most general results under the most general assumptions; 2) global evolutionary stability under restrictive assumptions; 3) viewing the model from a different, game-theoretic, perspective and examining almost sure Nash equilibrium strategies under restrictive assumptions. A central goal of the study is to identify an investment strategy that allows an investor to survive in the market selection process, i.e., to keep with probability one, a strictly positive, bounded away from zero share of market wealth over an infinite time horizon, irrespective of the strategies used by other investors. The main results are under general assumptions, such a survival strategy -- an analogue of the famous Kelly rule of "betting one's beliefs" exists -- and is asymptotically unique (within a specific class of strategies called basic). Moreover, under the required stronger assumptions, the Kelly rule is globally evolutionarily stable and is the unique investment strategy that forms a symmetric Nash equilibrium almost surely. |
| JEL: | C73 D53 G11 D58 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:2501 |
| By: | Yue Cao; Zongxia Liang; Sheng Wang; Xiang Yu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates a time-inconsistent portfolio selection problem in the incomplete mar ket model, integrating expected utility maximization with risk control. The objective functional balances the expected utility and variance on log returns, giving rise to time inconsistency and motivating the search of a time-consistent equilibrium strategy. We characterize the equilibrium via a coupled quadratic backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) system and establish the existence theory in two special cases: (i) two Brownian motions driven the price dynamics and the factor process are independent with $\rho = 0$; (ii) the trading strategy is constrained to be bounded. For the general case with correlation coefficient $\rho \neq 0$, we introduce the notion of an approximate time-consistent equilibrium. By employing the solution structure from the equilibrium in the case $\rho = 0$, we can construct an approximate time-consistent equilibrium in the general case with an error of order $O(\rho^2)$. Numerical examples and financial insights based on deep learning algorithms are also presented. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05861 |
| By: | Hanks, F. |
| Abstract: | Workers displaced by the reallocation of labor demand across industries suffer persistent earnings losses, in large part due to higher unemployment risk. This paper quantifies the aggregate unemployment implications of a reallocation of labor demand. I develop a search and matching model with multiple industries and industry specific skill that is calibrated to the US economy. In the model a reallocation shock leads to up to a 0.5 percentage points rise in unemployment. The combination of industry specific skill and imperfect substitutability between workers of different skill levels are key to this result. |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2571 |
| By: | Loan, Le Thi Thanh |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea25:373370 |