|
on Investment |
| By: | Melanie Wallskog |
| Abstract: | Researchers commonly impute workers’ full-time work status using an earnings floor (see e.g., Card, Heining, Kline (2013), Song et al. (2019), Sorkin (2018), Sorkin and Wallskog (2023)). While these earnings floors are easy to implement, as researchers often simply keep workers earning above some threshold (often the federal minimum wage at 35 or 40 hours per week for some weeks of the year), they could naturally be subject to measurement error (for example, part-time workers with high hourly wages). In this report, I analyze the scope of this misclassification by combining worker-level earnings data from the LEHD with reported hours worked from the ACS. |
| Keywords: | ACS, LEHD |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:26-33 |
| By: | Schack, Trine (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University); Meekes, Jordy (Leiden University); Barreto, César (OECD, Paris); Carcillo, Stéphane (Sciences Po, Paris); Fluchtmann, Jonas (OECD); Hijzen, Alexander (OECD); Lochner, Benjamin (FAU Erlangen-Nuremberg); Nibloe, Matthew (UCL); Vejlin, Rune (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | We study the incidence, sources, and dynamics of low-wage employment using harmonised linked employer-employee administrative data from Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. We examine how worker characteristics, firm-specific wage premia, wage progression, and labour market institutions shape outcomes at different parts of the lower wage distribution. Three main findings emerge. First, worker characteristics account for most of the wage gap facing low-wage workers, though firm-specific wage premia matter too, especially at the very bottom. Firm premia reflect both sorting across industries and pay differences across firms within industries. Second, low-wage employment is at least partly transitory, as workers at the bottom see faster subsequent wage growth and change firms more often. Third, minimum wages and marginal effective tax rates show limited systematic association with wage growth or job-to-job mobility, though higher minimum wages are linked to a smaller share of workers below 70 % of the median. These patterns are broadly similar across countries and point to the joint importance of worker skills and access to higher-paying firms for improving low-wage workers' prospects. |
| Keywords: | low-wage employment, cross-country, matched employer-employee data, wage premia, taxes |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J38 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18891 |
| By: | Florian Léon (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Zeïneb Benaïssa (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | L'investissement d'impact vise à concilier rentabilité financière et effets extra-financiers. À cette fin, la mesure des impacts générés (économiques, sociaux et environnementaux) est une étape cruciale. À partir d'une étude sur les pratiques de mesure d'impact des fonds d'investissement opérant en Afrique, nous mettons en évidence des pratiques très hétérogènes et assez éloignées des standards attendus. Dans cette note, nous identifions les défis auxquels font face les fonds et proposons plusieurs pistes pour les aider à améliorer leur capacité à mesurer les impacts. |
| Keywords: | Investissement d'impact, Evaluation d’impact, Fonds à impact, Afrique |
| Date: | 2026–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05736701 |
| By: | Liu, ZY |
| Abstract: | This article examines the differences that have arisen among Han nationalism, Chinese nationalism, and international New Qing History in the 2020s concerning the interpretation of Qing history. It argues that the three narratives do not revolve merely around evaluations of the Qing, but respectively focus on questions of ethnic identity, imperial structure, and the historical continuity of the modern state. Han nationalism emphasizes ethnic hierarchy and historical rupture under Qing rule; New Qing History places the Qing within a comparative framework of Eurasian empires and stresses its multi-ethnic imperial character; Chinese nationalism emphasizes the Qing’s important role in the formation of modern China’s territory and national community. The article further points out that controversies surrounding the Qing in fact reflect different understandings within contemporary Chinese society of national identification, ethnic relations, and the allocation of resources. |
| Date: | 2026–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3qexh_v1 |
| By: | Zachary Feinstein; Ionut Florescu; Sean O'Leary |
| Abstract: | Automated market makers (AMMs) are typically interpreted and evaluated as decentralized exchanges. Herein, we take the perspective envisioned by Balancer that an AMM can also be viewed as a portfolio technology that programmatically enforces an economic mandate. In particular, we follow the geometric mean market maker (G3M) invariant employed by that protocol in order to enforce a target-weighted portfolio. We introduce a multi-asset fee structure to the G3M under which competitive arbitrage implements a band-rebalancing strategy with mis-weighting bounded ex ante, allowing compliance with the mandate to be verified directly from the pool's observable holdings. We then compare simulated G3M portfolios against the realized performance of VBIAX, EQL, and EDOW on annualized returns and tracking error against the portfolio mandate. Across these historical case studies, and using arbitrage-only order flow, the G3M is found to outperform the incumbent funds in both metrics for certain fee ranges. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.02917 |
| By: | Hepburn, Jess; Caryl, Fiona; Mitchell, Rich; Patterson, Richard; Macdonald, Laura; Sfyridis, Alexandros; Fecht, Daniela; Panter, Jenna |
| Abstract: | Public health policy increasingly recognises the influence of built environments on health outcomes. However, most spatial datasets cannot track context-dependent environmental changes over time, a critical limitation when assessing the health impacts of urban development. This study develops the Built Environment Context and Change Atlas (BECCA), a novel methodology quantifying context-dependent built environment changes across Great Britain (2015-2020). Using the best available national spatial data, we integrated information on buildings, roads, and land cover, applying multivariate clustering to classify both environmental context and changes at 500m resolution. Stakeholders guided the definition of meaningful change categories. BECCA identified that 11% of GB cells underwent change, with substantial variation in development patterns across Functional Urban Areas, ranging from peripheral expansion to infill growth. While developed for Great Britain, this methodological framework is adaptable to other national contexts with similar spatial data availability, offering a template for international environmental change monitoring. By addressing critical gaps in existing environmental change data, BECCA provides a robust foundation for future research linking built environment dynamics to health outcomes, supporting evidence-based urban planning decisions. |
| Date: | 2026–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x8e2b_v2 |
| By: | Zonghao Yang |
| Abstract: | Counterfactual analysis aims to predict potential outcomes under hypothetical scenarios, offering valuable insights for decision-making. This paper investigates the application of large language models (LLMs), specifically the GPT-3.5 model, for counterfactual analysis. We focus on the online lending context, where the counterfactual return on investment (ROI) is crucial for evaluating different interest rate schemes. We begin by assessing the predictive performance of GPT and comparing it with advanced machine learning algorithms. The results show that prompt engineering can significantly enhance GPT's predictions, with the R-squared increasing from 1.97% to 2.84%, closely approaching the 3.48% achieved by gradient-boosted regression. Subsequently, we utilize GPT to generate counterfactual ROIs under a set of alternative interest rates. GPT exhibits logical coherence and causal reasoning in its responses. The findings underscore the potential of LLMs as effective tools for counterfactual analysis in online lending, suggesting broader applications for LLMs in various predictive and decision-making contexts. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.05367 |
| By: | Hiraoka, Koichi |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes the Relational Anchor Model, a communication-centered theoretical framework explaining why some interpersonal relationships recover after serious conflict while others develop into prolonged relational disconnection. Previous research introduced the concept of Post-Conflict Repair Capacity (PCRC), defined as the ability to resume ordinary interactions—such as greetings, work-related conversations, information sharing, and everyday communication—after interpersonal conflict. Although PCRC captures the observable capacity for relationship repair, it does not fully explain why certain individuals are able to demonstrate such capacity whereas others respond with prolonged avoidance, silence, or relational exclusion. The present study argues that post-conflict relationship repair depends not only on interpersonal skills or personality traits but also on two underlying psychosocial and relational resources. The first is Self-Worth Backbone, referring to a diversified structure of self-worth supported by multiple life domains rather than a single occupational or relational identity. Individuals whose self-worth is supported by multiple domains may be less likely to experience criticism as a threat to their entire self-concept. The second is the Relational Anchor, referring to enduring social bonds that continue to connect two individuals even after their primary relationship has been damaged. Such anchors may consist of shared communities, mutual acquaintances, collective experiences, long-term cooperation, common identities, or emotionally significant memories. The model draws on research on multiplexity (Verbrugge, 1979), embeddedness (Granovetter, 1985), social capital (Coleman, 1988), interaction ritual theory (Collins, 2004), and identity fusion research (Whitehouse & Lanman, 2014). These perspectives collectively suggest that relationship repair is facilitated when interpersonal conflict occurs within broader networks of overlapping social ties rather than isolated dyadic relationships. Building upon PCRC, this study proposes that relationship repair should be understood as a socially supported process rather than merely an individual psychological ability. Psychological safety is therefore reconceptualized not only as the freedom to speak but also as the freedom to return to ordinary interaction after speaking. This temporal extension contributes to organizational communication research by emphasizing the importance of post-conflict relational continuity. The paper further discusses implications for organizational learning, leadership development, and workplace communication. Organizations capable of preserving relational anchors following disagreement may be more likely to sustain dialogue, reflective learning, and long-term collaboration than organizations that respond to criticism through relational exclusion or communicative silence. |
| Date: | 2026–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:mediar:pkuvt_v1 |
| By: | Liu, ZY |
| Abstract: | This article is one of a series of papers examining Han nationalist ideology in China in the 2020s. It seeks to explore the phenomenon whereby discourse related to Han nationalism has increased in Chinese online space in recent years, yet has rarely been treated as an independent object of inquiry within China’s mainstream social-science research system. The article argues that this phenomenon does not simply stem from a lack of scholarly attention, but is related to the operating environment of Chinese social science. Analyzing academic tradition, research frameworks, academic norms, the functions of think tanks, and the situation of scholars, the article points out that Chinese social-science research has long been shaped by existing theoretical systems, modes of resource allocation, and traditions of policy research, making it relatively difficult for certain issues involving ethnic identity, historical memory, and identity competition to form independent research paths. The article further discusses the distance between theoretical systems and public discourse, and how this structure affects the explanatory capacity of Chinese social science with respect to social currents such as Han nationalism. The article does not attempt to provide statistical estimates of the scale or social support for Han nationalism in China; rather, it seeks to pose a question: when a social idea enters the space of public discussion, why does the existing academic system find it difficult to explain the phenomenon adequately? |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:asnbq_v1 |
| By: | Jonathan Hambur; Martin McCarthy; Sam Munn; Emily Shaw |
| Abstract: | Households' expectations for future interest rates influence their decisions and play a key role in the transmission of monetary policy, yet they remain understudied. Our paper analyses household survey microdata for Australia. Firstly, using a regression discontinuity design, we show that household interest rate expectations respond to monetary policy announcements. This finding differs from previous literature finding no effect of announcements in the United States. Secondly, we document how household interest rate expectations develop over time and differ across demographic groups. We show that household expectations differ greatly from that of market participants and professional forecasters, with the largest gaps among young people, lower-income earners, and renters. Household recall of, and attention to, economic news plays an important role in their expectations, and this differs across time and groups in a way somewhat consistent with rational inattention models. |
| Keywords: | expectation formation, interest rate expectations, monetary policy announcements |
| JEL: | D84 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-76 |
| By: | Paolo Fornaro |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I review the empirical literature of the last 20 or so years on the impact of public support to R&D, focusing on direct R&D subsidies and on R&D tax credits. The review considers both the impacts on R&D inputs, meaning private R&D expenditures, and outputs, such as patenting activity and productivity growth. In the survey, I include both macro-level studies, which examine the effects of public R&D support at the aggregate level, and micro-level analyses, which evaluate the impacts on firm- and worker-level outcomes. The studies covered in the review indicate a strong effectiveness of public R&D policies in stimulating private R&D activity. The effects on innovation and productivity are more uncertain, and might take long to materialize, but most of the works considered gave a positive assessment of public support to R&D. |
| Keywords: | R&D, public R&D policy, public innovation policy, productivity growth, literature review |
| JEL: | O30 O31 O32 O38 |
| Date: | 2026–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pst:wpaper:364 |
| By: | Jazila El Jamaai (UAE - Abdelmalek Essaadi University [Tétouan] = Université Abdelmalek Essaadi [Tétouan]); Ahmed Taheri (UAE - Abdelmalek Essaadi University [Tétouan] = Université Abdelmalek Essaadi [Tétouan]); Liliana Ballesteros-Mejia (DGD.REVE - Direction générale déléguée à la Recherche, à l’Expertise, à la Valorisation et à l’Enseignement-Formation - MNHN - Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle); Danish A. Ahmed (GUST - Gulf University for Science and Technology); Alok Bang (Azim Premji University); Christophe Diagne (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - délégation Occitanie - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Franck Courchamp (ESE - Ecologie, Société et Evolution (ex-Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution) - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Elena Angulo (EBD - Estación Biológica de Doñana - CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]) |
| Abstract: | Biological invasions pose substantial economic threats globally, yet detailed cost assessments for many Global South nations, especially in Africa, remain scarce. This study presents the first comprehensive breakdown of the potential economic costs of biological invasions in Morocco. We identified 343 invasive alien species, comprising approximately 1.11% of the country's biodiversity. Using the InvaCost database, we retrieved cost estimates for 137 species with available records. We calculated the mean annual cost per species, adjusted these values both socio-economically (using World Bank Purchasing Power Parity) and climatically (via Köppen climatic regions), and extrapolated them based on species prevalence in Morocco. This yielded an estimated annual economic impact ranging from US$1.14 billion (conservative adjusted value) to US$5.13 billion (maximum scenario). Across all estimations, damage costs consistently exceeded management costs by one or two orders of magnitude. Plant feeding insects such as Phenacoccus madeirensi, Bemisia tabacci, and Cydia pomonella emerged among the costliest species, threatening agriculture and food security. High-impact animals included the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) and the brown rat (Rattus norvegicus), both affecting public health and social welfare. In freshwater systems the common carp (Cyprinus carpio) imposed substantial fisheries losses. Invasive plants, particularly Euphorbia and Cenchrus species, were also widespread and contributed heavily to projected costs. Despite challenges in extrapolating cost data from other regions, this study underscores the urgent need for more research and for targeted management and policy interventions to minimize the spread of invasive species and reduce their economic toll. Proactive measures in Morocco, coupled with international collaboration, will be critical to mitigating this socio-ecological crisis and ensuring long-term sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Biological invasions, Economic impacts, InvaCost, Invasive species, Management strategies, Morocco |
| Date: | 2026–01–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05675144 |
| By: | Marcus Vinicius de Freitas |
| Abstract: | For much of the post-war period, the Global South was framed as an object of history, defined by dependency, constrained by structural asymmetries, and confined to the margins of global decision-making. That narrative, once empirically grounded, is now no longer adequate. A profound yet uneven transformation is underway. The Global South is no longer only reacting; it is increasingly shaping rules, institutions, and narratives. This Policy Brief argues that the Global South is thus transitioning from victimhood to agency, and potentially from agency toward systemic authorship. However, authorship remains an aspiration, not an achievement. The transition is real but contested, reversible in parts, and complicated by deep internal divisions. To move beyond intuitive claims, the brief proposes a novel operational tool, the Global South Agency Index (GSAI). This would be a composite annual measure of Southern influence over binding international rules. Central to this transformation is China, not as a new hegemon, but as a catalytic anchor with scale and strategic coherence that has expanded the room for maneuver for other Global-South actors. Yet China’s rise also introduces new asymmetries and rivalries. This Policy Brief advances three propositions. First, Global-South agency must be understood as the capacity to shape rules, not merely to participate. Second, this agency is real but fragmented, constrained by intra-Global South tensions (India-China, middle powers vs Least-Developed Countries, regional rivalries). Third, moving from agency to durable systemic architecture requires these internal divisions to be confronted, and strategic coherence to be built. The emerging order is not a simple power transition but a normative pluralization. The Global South’s growing influence has not yet translated into authorship of binding international rules. Whether it can do so depends on its ability to manage internal contradictions, and to convert episodic coordination into lasting institutions. I am deeply grateful to Hu Fengning, my former student at China Foreign Affairs University, for his invaluable help with this policy brief – from tracking down sources to sharpening the argument. His contribution made this work better. All shortcomings remain mine. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb40_26 |
| By: | Samuel Dodini; Tucker Smith |
| Abstract: | Texas firms are increasingly integrating generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) into their business processes. Two-thirds of firms surveyed in the May 2026 Texas Business Outlook Survey reported using AI, up from 40 percent two years prior. |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:103755 |
| By: | Rim Berahab; Sabrine Emran |
| Abstract: | The global energy system has entered a period of acute structural stress following the strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran in late February 2026, and the subsequent disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, the resulting shock marks the most severe disruption to global energy markets since the 1970s oil crises, with systemic characteristics comparable to the combined effects of those crises and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy shock. This policy paper examines the mechanics of the oil-price shock, then assesses the structural importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy chokepoint, through which an estimated 17.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and LNG transited before the Iran conflict. It highlights the limited substitutability of existing bypass infrastructure under conditions of sustained disruption. It also evaluates the fragmentation of the OPEC+ framework, including the United Arab Emirates’s announced withdrawal from the alliance on May 1, 2026, marking a critical point in the erosion of coordinated production management among major Gulf exporters. Finally, it analyses the role of renewable energy as a structural variable in the crisis, not as a short-term buffer, but as an accelerating force reshaping the geopolitical foundations of energy security. The Hormuz disruption should therefore be understood not only as a price shock, but as a systemic stress test of global energy governance, exposing deep structural fragilities and accelerating realignments across markets, alliances, and the energy transition. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb29_26 |
| By: | Sajal Jain (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Diya Dasgupta; Somit Dasgupta; Amrita Goldar |
| Abstract: | The analysis found 340 industry divisions at 5-digit National Industrial Classification (NIC) and 16 broad occupation groups under the National Classification of Occupation (NCO), as EE-relevant. Results indicate that 50.32 hundred thousand workers were employed in EE-relevant product manufacturing roles, accounting for about 8 percent of total manufacturing employment in India in 2023–24. As an EE-enabling catalyst, the paper notes the repair and maintenance segment to play a critical role. The largest contributing industry groups are formed by Repair and Maintenance (23.9 per cent), Construction Materials (12.2 per cent), and Electricals and Electronics (11.1 per cent). The analysis further highlights that EE-relevant employment is predominantly made up of high-skilled workforce (50.6 percent). To ensure a robust analysis, the paper employs a dual assessment framework comprising both output-based and task-based approaches, triangulated with data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). Additionally, select occupational tasks were validated via a mapping between the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) Green Economy Program occupation database and NCO. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency, employment, skilling competitiveness, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:435 |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser |
| Abstract: | Will 21st century transportation innovations work against urban density, as the car did in the 20th century, or promote urban centralization, as the railroad did in the 19th century? Reducing the cost of commuting always reduces urban centralization in the classic Alonso-Muth-Mills model but that result reverses if the number of trips is endogenous and the elasticity of trips with respect to their costs is greater than one. That elasticity may have increased over time, as an increasing share of daily trips seems to be discretionary and city centers increasingly provide entertainment. This paper asks discusses the urbanizing effects of four trends in transportation technology: shared mobility (such as Uber), autonomy (such as Waymo), vertical travel and green mobility, as provided by bike lane. As people spend more time travelling in denser, large areas, innovations that reduce the time cost of travel, such as autonomous cars, seem likely to complement urban living, as long as they don’t excessively increase traffic. Sharing is also easier in big cities, so technologies that involve sharing are also centripetal. The other trends seem less likely to have major effects. Moreover, the forces of inertia, which include both regulation and legacy infrastructure, are likely to limit the impact of any new technologies in Europe and the U.S., so that the biggest changes in urban form are likely to appear in east Asia and the developing world. |
| JEL: | O33 R00 R40 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35718 |
| By: | Clair, Amy; Baker, Emma; Giles, Lynne; Morey, Claire |
| Abstract: | This project examines the available data on children’s housing and wellbeing and current policy in Australia to highlight how housing affects children’s health and development. It provides policymakers with a guide to the different housing situations children face, identifies significant knowledge gaps and related risks, and proposes priorities for policy-relevant data collection and evidence development. The impacts of Australia’s housing crisis on children have received less attention than for other population groups. Accessible data collections rarely focus on them. Yet households with children are particularly affected by poor quality and insecure housing, and children’s physical vulnerability and dependence on caregivers increases the related risks to their wellbeing. This underscores the need for stronger data insights to support earlier intervention, better targeting and more accountable policy for children. |
| Date: | 2026–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3hbjg_v1 |
| By: | Ferreira, João R.; Martins, Pedro S. |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of vocational education and training (VET) in a setting with high dropout rates and socio-economic inequality in educational attainment. We estimate that the introduction of VET courses across public upper secondary schools in Portugal was associated with a 2.7 percentage points increase in on-time graduation rates (6% of the baseline rate). Our identification strategy exploits the staggered introduction of the VET track, which created quasi-experimental variation in the local availability of VET across school districts and cohorts. Drawing on a comprehensive student-school matched panel spanning 2006-2017, we implement an event-study design and three complementary IV strategies. We find substantial positive effects of VET take-up on graduation rates, especially among previously low-achieving and socio-economically disadvantaged students. |
| Keywords: | Vocational education, Educational attainment, Educational inequality, Matched studentschool data, Portugal |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1810 |
| By: | Minchul Shin |
| Abstract: | AI coding agents, general-purpose assistants that write and execute code, make empirical specification search fast and cheap, but they also widen hidden researcher degrees of freedom. This paper adapts an open-source agent-loop architecture to an empirical economics workflow and adds a post-search holdout evaluation. In a forecast-combination illustration, independent agent searches find methods that improve on benchmarks from the original study. Logged search and holdout evaluation together make adaptive specification search more transparent and help distinguish robust improvements from sample-specific discoveries. |
| Keywords: | Agent loops; Autoresearch; Specification search; Researcher degrees of freedom; Responsible AI; Forecast combination |
| JEL: | C53 C52 C18 |
| Date: | 2026–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:103699 |
| By: | Olayinka Oyekola (Department of Economics, University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | Despite substantial improvements in global health, millions of infants continue to die before reaching their first birthday. Using a dataset of 11.5 million births in 78 developing countries, we examine the consequences of aggregate economic fluctuations for infant survival. We exploit oil price shocks and find that, at the sample mean of net oil exposure, a 50% increase in international oil prices corresponds to an increase in infant mortality of approximately 3 deaths per 1, 000 live births, or 4% relative to the sample mean. Infant survival is particularly sensitive to economic fluctuations in poorer countries, rural areas, among first-born children, and among children of older mothers, with little evidence that the effects differ systematically with the direction of the oil price shock. Investigating potential mechanisms, we find that, at the sample mean of net oil exposure, the same change in international oil prices corresponds to reductions in vaccination rates of 0.15-0.31 percentage points and increases in the incidence of low and very low birth weight of approximately 4-5% relative to their respective sample means, while having little effect on maternal healthcare utilization, household resources, or childhood morbidity. The results are robust to alternative specifications and identification strategies, including within-mother comparisons. These findings demonstrate that aggregate economic fluctuations have important implications for early-life health and point to preventive child health investments and birth endowments as potential margins linking economic fluctuations to infant survival in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | economic fluctuations, infant mortality, early-life health, developing countries |
| JEL: | I15 J13 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2612 |
| By: | Takuma Kunieda (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University); Keisuke Okada (Faculty of Economics, Kansai University); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Akihisa Shibata (Department of Economics, Osaka University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Building on the two-sector growth model of Matsuyama (1992), this paper explores how the Green Revolution contributed to structural transformation through market-based price adjustments. To address the endogeneity of relative agricultural prices, we employ shift-share (Bartik) instrumental variables drawing on the innovative methodologies and datasets developed by Gollin et al. (2021) and Huang (2024). We further construct a novel projected-TFP instrument to isolate realized agricultural productivity gains attributable to the Green Revolution. Our empirical findings show that the Green Revolution significantly increased agricultural productivity, lowered agricultural prices, and facilitated structural transformation when market mechanisms function effectively. Importantly, institutional quality critically shapes this price-transmission mechanism: weak institutions distort the transmission of agri-cultural productivity gains into relative prices and thereby impede structural transformation. To quantify these distortions and the associated misallocation, we construct a price-based misallocation (PBM) index that captures institutionally mediated distortions in relative-price adjustment. Overall, our findings show that the benefits of the Green Revolution depend not only on technological progress itself but also on the institutional environment through which productivity gains are transmitted into market prices. These findings highlight the importance of institutional reforms and targeted policies to reduce distortions and maximize the gains from agricultural innovation. |
| Keywords: | Structural transformation; Green Revolution; Misallocation; Economic development; Price-based misallocation (PBM) index |
| JEL: | O11 O13 O43 Q16 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:313 |
| By: | Olga Cantó (Universidad de Alcalá); Miguel Parra (Universidad de Alcalá) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting harmonised longitudinal income data over the period 1994–2023, this paper examines intertemporal poverty in Spain in the past three decades. To ensure that any single set of normative assumptions does not drive results, we rely on three methodologically distinct approaches that differ in their assumptions about income substitutabilityacross periods. We document two main findings. First, while the share of individuals experiencing at least one poverty spell has declined since the mid-1990s, all indicators pointto a substantial rise in the incidence and severity of chronic poverty, concentrated aroundthe Great Recession and sustained thereafter. Second, an Oaxaca-Blinder decompositionreveals that the observed decline in poverty exposure is largely a compositional effect, driven by improvements in individuals' observable characteristics. Once these are heldconstant, both the probability of ever experiencing a poverty spell and the risk of chronic poverty have consistently increased since the mid-1990s, highlighting a structural weakening of the returns that observable characteristics have to prevent short and long-term deprivation. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2026-697 |
| By: | Koundouros, Andreas; Nautz, Dieter |
| Abstract: | Inflation misperceptions of consumers complicate the conduct and communication of monetary policy and can undermine the credibility of the central bank's inflation target. This paper empirically investigates the determinants of inflation misperceptions by extending a rational inattention model to incorporate distorted signals from salient prices. We estimate the model using rich micro-level panel data for the euro area drawn from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that consumers misperceive inflation both because they are inattentive to inflation and because they overweight food price inflation relative to headline inflation. In contrast, distortions stemming from energy prices are not significant. Financially literate consumers exhibit lower inflation misperceptions and greater attention to inflation, while women have more pronounced inflation misperceptions and place larger weights on salient prices. Finally, we show that attention to inflation is higher and misperceptions are lower in response to inflationary than to disinflationary news. |
| Keywords: | Inflation misperceptions, rational inattention, salient prices, inflationary news, financial literacy, gender differences, ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| JEL: | E31 E58 E71 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:343039 |
| By: | Kaniska Dam; Rajdeep Sengupta |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between bank capital and reliance on insured deposit funding. Contrary to the conventional moral-hazard view underlying risk-based capital regulation, U.S. bank data reveal a robust negative association between capital and the share of insured deposits. We develop a delegated-monitoring model in which banks choose between insured and uninsured deposit financing. Although monitoring increases with capital under both funding regimes, its sensitivity to capital is greater when deposits are uninsured, strengthening the relative attractiveness of uninsured funding for well-capitalized banks. Our contribution is to show that the relationship between bank capital and deposit insurance depends not only on the direct effect of capital on risk-taking, but also on how capitalization changes a bank’s incentives to monitor under different funding arrangements. |
| Keywords: | bank monitoring; deposit insurance; bank capital |
| JEL: | C78 D82 G11 |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:103726 |
| By: | Brian Greaney |
| Abstract: | I develop a dynamic quantitative spatial framework that combines key features of quantitative spatial and lifecycle housing models to study the distributional effects of spatially heterogeneous shocks. The model features many locations, moving costs, uninsurable income risk, lifecycle dynamics, housing tenure choice and housing frictions. The model is set in continuous time, which enables efficient computation. I apply the framework to analyze the welfare effects of heterogeneous productivity shocks across U.S. cities. I find that local productivity shocks have important distributional consequences: on average, a 1% shock to local productivity raises residents’ welfare by 0.37%. The pass-through from a local productivity shock to welfare varies substantially by age and housing tenure. I show that homeownership plays a central role in spatial redistribution: in an otherwise identical model without homeownership, the average welfare effect of a 1% local productivity shock is just 0.03%. This is because house price changes counteract the welfare effects of wage changes for renters, but augment them for owners. These results suggest that accounting for homeownership is essential for understanding the distributional effects of spatially heterogeneous shocks. |
| Keywords: | spatial dynamics; economic geography; migration; homeownership |
| JEL: | R12 R23 R0 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103688 |
| By: | Keith Hazen |
| Abstract: | Using transaction-level data for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) matched to public “Whale Alert” signals, we examine how large-scale cryptocurrency trades shape market microstructure. Specifically, we test whether whale transactions alter the composition of active non-whale participants, trigger leader-follower herd behavior, and elevate short-term return volatility. We document a stark divergence between networks: Whale alerts heavily reshape (native) BTC participation by mobilizing previously inactive retail and institutional investors, whereas ETH and WBTC participant profiles remain highly stable on the Ethereum platform. Furthermore, non-whale investors exhibit strong leader-follower behavior in the BTC market — buying and selling in tandem with whale direction. This pattern is largely absent in the Ethereum ecosystem, except among the largest non-whale tranches. These behavioral dynamics directly mirror market stability: Whale alerts induce a brief 24-hour spike in BTC volatility (most acutely following WBTC alerts) but coincide with compressed volatility on the Ethereum platform. Additionally, these asymmetric market responses persisted across Ethereum’s transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. These findings indicate persistent informational and structural asymmetries between large and small digital-asset investors. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency; Ethereum; ETH; Bitcoin; WBTC; crypto whales; DeFi |
| JEL: | G14 G23 G28 G41 |
| Date: | 2026–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:103741 |
| By: | Brea Martínez-Collado, Samuel; Jauernig, Johanna |
| Abstract: | El uso de tierras agrarias plantea desafíos para la sostenibilidad socioecológica y ha generado crecientes demandas sociales por regulaciones más estrictas, especialmente para proteger a agricultores locales frente a compradores no locales o no agrícolas. A través de un experimento piloto con 220 participantes en Alemania, exploramos cómo las características del comprador influye en las percepciones públicas sobre los beneficios de las transacciones y el apoyo a regulaciones. Los resultados muestran un escepticismo generalizado hacia el mercado, particularmente cuando el comprador no es local, lo que refuerza la idea de que estas transacciones no se perciben como mutuamente beneficiosas. Este patrón refleja una visión romántica y paternalista de la agricultura, donde la tierra es valorada más allá de su precio y los agricultores son vistos como merecedores de protección especial. Estos hallazgos subrayan la necesidad de políticas que reconozcan estas percepciones sociales y comuniquen de manera efectiva los beneficios reales de las transacciones, para avanzar hacia un equilibrio entre modernización agraria, sostenibilidad y legitimidad social. |
| Keywords: | mercados de tierras agrarias, percepciones de suma cero, psicología moral, experimentos, folk economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343038 |
| By: | William N. Goetzmann; Dasol Kim; Robert J. Shiller |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence of how the beliefs of investors who step out of the market, or “non-marginal” investors, influence asset prices. Using more than two decades of respondent-level investor surveys, we construct wedge measures that quantify the distance between subjective investor beliefs and option-implied benchmarks. We use self-identified proxies for market participation to document that these wedges correspond with the beliefs of non-marginal investors. Non-marginal investors are generally more pessimistic in their market return forecasts and perceive greater crash risks than the pricing population. Subjective crash beliefs are a key determinant of participation, even when controlling for expected return beliefs. This heterogeneity, in part, explains the negative association between average expected returns estimated from surveys and future realized market returns. In the cross-section, stocks with greater sensitivity to non-marginal beliefs earn lower returns, particularly where disagreement is high. Taken together, the results provide evidence of a composition channel in which belief-driven exit concentrates risk among fewer investors. |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G14 G41 G51 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35708 |
| By: | Linsen Zhu; Mengqing Cai |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) now supports investment workflows from data and prediction through research, portfolios, execution, and tool use. Technical capability, however, is not evidence of investment profitability. This critical state-of-the-art review examines public research available through 31 August 2026 on listed equities, exchange-traded funds, centralized crypto spot, perpetual futures, and on-chain markets. We organize evidence with an alpha-translation chain: point-in-time information must yield a stable signal, feasible positions, executable orders, and risk-adjusted returns after costs. Across machine learning, time-series foundation models, financial language models, reinforcement learning, and agents, the examined record shows real but mainly upstream progress in prediction, text processing, portfolio design, and workflow integration. Evidence is thinner for durable net performance. Temporal contamination, repeated selection, survivorship, weak benchmarks, implementation costs, venue mechanics, and capacity can break translation to net alpha. Strong historical results coexist with predictor decay, corrected look-ahead failures, mixed prospective evidence, and few audited live-capital records. Crypto adds informative state but requires separate treatment of spot, perpetual, and decentralized cash flows and execution. Within the public evidence examined here, no general AI architecture is shown to deliver persistent, cross-regime, capacity-aware net alpha. More credible claims require point-in-time data and models, decision-aligned objectives, joint portfolio--execution evaluation, controlled adaptation, prospective tests, and authority-matched governance. These conditions can improve evidence and implementation; they do not guarantee profit. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.04917 |
| By: | Anna Schlaack; Christian Zimmermann |
| Abstract: | RePEc is an initiative created by economists for economists in 1997. It functions primarily as a bibliographic tool, but it also collects various linked metadata about economists, their institutions, and their impact. Thus, a labor economist may be interested in RePEc beyond literature searches and tracking—namely, as a dataset describing a profession, its members, and their output. This essay describes RePEc’s origins and history, the many facets of its data and how the data can be accessed. It also provides some examples of scholarly studies leveraging RePEc data that could be of interest to labor economists and lead them to other uses of RePEc data. |
| Keywords: | RePEc; dataset; sociology of economics; economics profession |
| JEL: | A11 A14 J44 J45 |
| Date: | 2026–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:103698 |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; David Deming; Tyler Schumacher |
| Abstract: | Two new indexes that use survey data to track AI adoption at the occupation and job task levels suggest AI take-up in the workplace is widespread but shallow. |
| Keywords: | technology adoption; artificial intelligence (AI) |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:103723 |
| By: | Jean-Marie Dufour; Mame Astou Diouf |
| Abstract: | We study from a finite-sample viewpoint the problem of building tests and simultaneous confidence bands for cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), continuous or discrete. We emphasize procedures based on reweighted empirical distribution function (EDF) with shrinking bandwidths in the tails of the distribution. Since weighted statistics may have a problematic behavior when scaling factors are small (or zero), we propose to use regularized statistics. We consider a wide class set of modified EDF-type statistics, and give general characterizations of their distributions in the case of i.i.d. observations, so that the relevant distributions can be simulated in finite samples. We show that test criteria in the class studied can be implemented through the technique of Monte Carlo tests (MCT), so that the level is fully controlled in finite samples, irrespective of whether the tested distribution is continuous or discrete, without the need to establish an asymptotic distribution. Standard criteria such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), Anderson-Darling (AD), Eicker (E), and Berk– Jones (BJ) statistics are covered as special cases. Confidence bands are built by inverting sup-type goodness-of-fit test statistics. We show that the bands based on regularized AD-type and E-type statistics have closed forms which are especially easy to compute, without nonlinear optimization. For continuous variables, the null distributions of the statistics do not depend on the CDF tested. For noncontinuous distributions, we show that the MCT approach transparently controls test levels irrespective of the distribution tested. We also establish monotonicity properties (based on nesting image sets) and a general dominance result, so continuous critical values are valid (conservative) critical points. We show in Monte Carlo simulations that the proposed regularized goodness-of-fit tests and confidence bands are numerically tractable, reliable and yield power and precision improvements over standard procedures. The proposed methods are applied to the distribution of households’ consumption in Kenya. Nous étudions, dans une perspective d'échantillons finis, le problème de la construction de tests et de bandes de confiance simultanées pour les fonctions de distribution cumulées (FDC), qu'elles soient continues ou discrètes. Nous mettons l'accent sur les procédures basées sur la fonction de distribution empirique (FDE) repondérée, avec des largeurs de bande décroissantes dans les queues de la distribution. Étant donné que les statistiques pondérées peuvent présenter un comportement problématique lorsque les facteurs d'échelle sont faibles (ou nuls), nous proposons d'utiliser des statistiques régularisées. Nous considérons une vaste classe de statistiques de type EDF modifiées et donnons des caractérisations générales de leurs distributions dans le cas d’observations i.i.d., de sorte que les distributions concernées puissent être simulées dans des échantillons finis. Nous montrons que les critères de test de la classe étudiée peuvent être mis en œuvre à l’aide de la technique des tests de Monte Carlo (MCT), de sorte que le niveau de confiance soit entièrement contrôlé dans des échantillons finis, que la distribution testée soit continue ou discrète, sans qu’il soit nécessaire d’établir une distribution asymptotique. Les critères standard tels que les statistiques de Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), d’Anderson-Darling (AD), d’Eicker (E) et de Berk–Jones (BJ) sont traités comme des cas particuliers. Les intervalles de confiance sont construits en inversant les statistiques de test d’adéquation de type sup. Nous montrons que les bandes basées sur les statistiques régularisées de type AD et de type E ont des formes fermées particulièrement faciles à calculer, sans optimisation non linéaire. Pour les variables continues, les distributions nulles des statistiques ne dépendent pas de la fonction de distribution cumulative (FDC) testée. Pour les distributions non continues, nous montrons que l’approche MCT permet de contrôler de manière transparente le niveau de signification, quelle que soit la distribution testée. Nous établissons également des propriétés de monotonie (basées sur des ensembles d’images imbriquées) et un résultat général de dominance, de sorte que les valeurs critiques continues constituent des points critiques valides (conservateurs). Nous montrons, à l’aide de simulations de Monte Carlo, que les tests de bon ajustement régularisés et les intervalles de confiance proposés sont numériquement gérables, fiables et permettent d’améliorer la puissance et la précision par rapport aux procédures standard. Les méthodes proposées sont appliquées à la distribution de la consommation des ménages au Kenya. |
| Keywords: | Nonparametric inference, empirical distribution function, confidence band, regularization, weighted statistics, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, Anderson-Darling statistic, Eicker statistic, Berk-Jones statistic, inférence non paramétrique, fonction de distribution empirique, intervalle de confiance, régularisation, statistiques pondérées, statistique de Kolmogorov-Smirnov, statistique d'Anderson-Darling, statistique d'Eicker, statistique de Berk-Jones |
| JEL: | C3 C12 C33 C15 G1 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2026s-15 |
| By: | Jianhao Lin; Lexuan Sun; Yixin Yan |
| Abstract: | Tariff threats can move household beliefs before policy is enacted, yet their rapidly changing language is difficult to study with conventional surveys. We build a multi-agent system that turns 300 households from the Michigan Surveys of Consumers into persistent large-language-model agents exposed to social-media information over several simulated months. Calibrated agents reproduce some distributional and demographic patterns in human survey data collected after the announcement of Liberation Day tariffs. Simulated experiments indicate that immediacy, rate salience, semantic progression, message complexity, narrative, and sender identity jointly shape inflation and unemployment expectations and their dispersion. Open-ended responses trace these effects to attention, ambiguity, credibility, and causal narratives. A second experiment finds that central-bank explanations can coordinate beliefs, although their effects on average expectations depend on message content. The framework supports disciplined exploration of policy communication, subject to human validation rather than as a substitute for it. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.30522 |
| By: | Steenkamp, Daan; MacKay, Donald |
| Abstract: | South Africa's economic transformation policies have not delivered inclusive economic growth, despite being part of South Africa's legislation for decades. The country's post-2009 growth trajectory - persistently below 2% annually - has intensified debate about whether transformation and growth are being advanced together or are increasingly in tension. Despite the enormous resources spent on compliance and accreditation, very little is known about the impact of Broad-based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) over the last 23 years because compliance data are not publicly available. Government's unwillingness to publish data means there is no authoritative research that quantifies compliance costs or assesses the firm and macroeconomic impacts of these requirements. So, we ran a survey to understand how firms view the costs and benefits of B-BBEE regulations. The survey shows that these compliance costs act as stealth taxes that strongly disincentivise firm start-up or growth if the firm is small and the founders are not black. |
| Keywords: | Black Economic Empowerment, Cost of Regulations |
| JEL: | D2 D22 J7 L51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:343032 |
| By: | Loubna Aouaam (laboratoire de recherche en sciences de gestion des organisations - ENCG Kenitra, UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Mustapha Achibane (laboratoire de recherche en sciences de gestion des organisations - ENCG Kenitra, UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl) |
| Abstract: | Operational risk management and internal control have become major strategic priorities for Moroccan banks, whose cumulative balance sheet was equivalent to 120% of gross domestic product at the end of 2024 (Bank Al-Maghrib, Rapport DSB, 2024, p. 3), in a context marked by the requirements of the Basel accords, the rise of participatory banks and the accelerated digitalization of financial services. While the relationship between these two mechanisms has been documented at the level of firms in general, its banking dimension, examined through the lens of the Moroccan regulatory framework, remains insufficiently explored in the national academic literature. This article presents a structured literature review aimed at clarifying the theoretical foundations of operational risk and internal control in Moroccan banks, analyzing the regulatory framework established by Bank Al-Maghrib, and determining the nature of the relationship between them. The approach draws on a plural theoretical anchoring as well as the Basel and COSO frameworks. On this basis, the article proposes an original integrative conceptual model structured around four levels of analysis, conceptualizing internal control as a preventive solution and introducing the mastery of operational risk as a mediating variable towards banking performance, under the effect of three moderating variables. The findings are operationalized through six research hypotheses. The scope of this contribution remains exclusively theoretical: these hypotheses are not empirically tested in the present article and will be confronted with the field in a subsequent empirical article |
| Keywords: | Banking performance. Classification JEL : G21, Risque opérationnel Contrôle interne Banques marocaines Bank Al-Maghrib Performance bancaire JEL Classification : G21, G32, M42, G28 Operational risk Internal control Moroccan banks Bank Al-Maghrib Banking performance. Classification JEL : G21, G28, Risque opérationnel, Moroccan banks, Internal control, G28 Operational risk, Performance bancaire JEL Classification : G21, Bank Al-Maghrib, Banques marocaines, Contrôle interne |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05705361 |
| By: | Lange, Nico; Dulgeridis, Marcel; Cornelsen, Jens |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence applications increasingly promise efficiency gains, personalization, automation and improved user experiences. For medium-sized companies, however, the challenge is less the existence of potential use cases than the ability to prioritize them under resource constraints, heterogeneous data maturity and regulatory uncertainty. Building on a bachelor thesis on AI-supported user experience in online shops, this discussion paper reframes the developed prioritization matrix as a generic AI Impact Scoring Tool that can be applied to virtually any AI initiative. The proposed tool combines a value axis, a feasibility axis and a scenario-based sensitivity analysis. It draws on user-experience theory, technology acceptance, stimulus-organism-response reasoning, multi-criteria utility analysis and design-oriented model development. The e-commerce use case serves as a blueprint: AI-generated product imagery, personalized product recommendations and AI-based interaction systems are assessed to illustrate how different AI applications can be positioned as quick wins, strategic investments, experimental options or deprioritized initiatives. The central contribution lies in making AI investment decisions more transparent, comparable and adaptable. Rather than providing a one-time ranking, the model offers a reusable governance and decision framework for management teams that need to evaluate changing AI opportunities over time. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, AI Governance, User Experience, E-Commerce, Prioritization Matrix, Utility Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Medium-Sized Enterprises |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:343054 |
| By: | Travis Baseler; Jules Gazeaud; Erik Snowberg |
| Abstract: | We derive four facts from experiments on the spillover effects of cash and in-kind transfer programs onto non-recipients: (1) average spillovers on consumption and asset value are negligible; (2) negative psychological spillovers emerge in the longer term among households randomly excluded from transfers by within-village lotteries; (3) these spillovers are concentrated in consumption-poor households; and (4) they do not appear when the selection of transfer recipients is eligibility-based. These findings are consistent with household preferences against within-village randomization of transfers, and point to additional benefits of cluster-level randomized designs over household-level ones. |
| JEL: | C93 D62 F35 I31 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35681 |
| By: | Havishaye Puri (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Tanu M. Goyal; Shravani Prakash; Anjhana Ramesh |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical estimate of its contribution to employment, adapting the international classification frameworks used by UNESCO and the European Union (EU) to the Indian context through a mapping of cultural domains and value chain stages to the National Industrial Classification (NIC-2008). Applying this framework to unit-level data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for 2017-18 and 2025, the paper estimates that approximately 57 million workers, amounting to nearly 9 per cent of India's total workforce, are engaged in cultural and creative activities. Moreover, there has been a 40 per cent increase in the culture-creative workforce over seven years and female employment has doubled. Yet, at present, there is concentration of employment in low-value manufacturing and real wages for women have stagnated. |
| Keywords: | Cultural economy, Cultural and creative industries, Employment estimation, Wagelevels, Wage differentials, India, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:437 |
| By: | Leonardo Ivarola (CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires], University of Buenos Aires, Argentina); Alfredo Garcia (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina); Martín Szybisz (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the ideas of order and equilibrium in economics. Drawing on the philosophical concept of absolute contingency (Meillassoux, 2008; Hui, 2019), this paper shows that equilibrium-based economic approaches encounter three key conceptual issues. First, ontologically, there is no inherent order that must persist. Second, epistemically, there are no guarantees that current conditions will remain the same in the future. Third, pragmatically, individuals act and revise their plans in response to contingent, changing conditions. Economic action may involve optimization under particular arrangements, but very often requires adaptation and learning as these arrangements change. The terms ontology, epistemology, and pragmatics are used here as heuristic tools. These three dimensions are viewed as a triad that, open to contingency, evolves recursively. Instead of viewing economic systems as mechanistic, we suggest seeing them as metastable processes open to transformation. In this perspective, order is not a necessity but merely one possible state. It is also argued that traditional economic models, emphasizing deductive rigor, are limited in external validity and learning potential. Simulation models, such as ABMs, are proposed as valuable complements for examining economic scenarios shaped by absolute contingency. |
| Keywords: | Contingency, Recursion, Metastability, Equilibrium, Adaptive processes, Economic modeling, Simulation models |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05240376 |
| By: | Abdelkader Aguir (ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières, ESPI2R - Laboratoire ESPI2R Research in Real Estate [Lyon] - ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières, MOFID-Université de Sousse); Fernanda Sabrini-Chatelard (ESPI2R - Laboratoire ESPI2R Research in Real Estate [Lyon] - ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières); Marouene Mbarek (ESPI2R - Laboratoire ESPI2R Research in Real Estate [Nantes] - ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières, LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | Climate change and the transition toward a low-carbon economy have intensified the debate on the interaction between environmental factors and macroeconomic stability. While recent studies have mainly focused on how monetary policy can address climate-related risks, much less attention has been devoted to the potential influence of environmental indicators on inflation. This paper examines the relationship between carbon emissions and inflation dynamics across 20 Eurozone countries over the period 2010–2023. Using annual panel data, we estimate a dynamic model based on the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) to account for inflation persistence and potential endogeneity. The empirical framework incorporates carbon emissions per capita together with final energy consumption, the EUR/USD exchange rate, and the trade balance as key macroeconomic control variables. The baseline specification does not reveal a statistically significant relationship between carbon emissions and inflation. However, robustness analysis based on a first-differenced System GMM specification identifies a significant negative association, suggesting that environmental factors may influence inflation dynamics under alternative model specifications. Energy consumption and exchange rate movements also emerge as important determinants of inflation. These findings contribute to the growing literature linking climate-related variables and monetary policy by highlighting the relevance of incorporating environmental indicators into inflation analysis while emphasizing the need for cautious interpretation and further empirical investigation. |
| Keywords: | Carbon emissions, Climate macroeconomics, Eurozone, System GMM, Environmental indicators, Inflation |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05734117 |
| By: | Zihao Li; Minghao Pan |
| Abstract: | Which social norms are self-correcting under rational learning? We show that conduct sustained by false beliefs cannot persist if a single departure from prevailing behavior generates evidence against those beliefs. We study the overlapping-generations learning model of Fudenberg and Levine (1993), in which finitely lived Bayesian agents are repeatedly and randomly matched with agents in other player roles, observe only their own matches, and learn from experience. In simple extensive-form games with nodewise-independent, nondegenerate priors, as agents live increasingly long lives and become sufficiently patient, every limiting game outcome is path-equivalent to a subgame-confirmed equilibrium. This establishes the converse of Fudenberg and Levine (2006). The mechanism is endogenous experimentation: uncertainty about the consequences of a potentially profitable departure gives patient agents an incentive to test it, generating the observations that correct beliefs and discipline continuation play. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.05380 |
| By: | Andreas Bauer |
| Abstract: | Firms that deploy improving but imperfect AI must decide how much to keep human workers engaged. An agent-based version of the market reproduces the analytical thresholds under noisy beliefs, learning-by-record and worker churn. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.04276 |
| By: | Ivan Dichovski (London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History); Stefan Nikolić (Loughborough University, Loughborough Business School) |
| Abstract: | Can railways promote development in late-developing agrarian economies? This article examines Bulgaria between 1880 and 1910 using newly collected settlement-level data on population growth and agricultural productivity. We employ an inconsequential-units instrumental variable strategy based on least-cost paths. Railway access increased annual population growth by 0.6 percentage points and raised grain and cash-crop productivity by around 12 and 109 kilograms per decare of sown land, respectively. Productivity gains were larger in settlements farther from major export ports, consistent with railways promoting development by facilitating agricultural commercialisation and improving access to foreign markets. |
| Keywords: | Railways, Development, Bulgaria, Growth, Agriculture, Market Access |
| JEL: | N1 N7 N9 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0310 |
| By: | Galvin Ng; Luca Mungo; Damien Bertrand; Fran\c{c}ois Lafond |
| Abstract: | A good representation of the population of firms and households is essential for large-scale economic models. While there exist good methods to create synthetic populations of households, creating synthetic populations of firms and, crucially, their supply chain links, is typically much harder. Here, we introduce a flexible method to create synthetic supply networks that match both the known properties of firm-level supply networks and the properties of aggregated input-output tables used in macroeconomic models. Our method is fast, and because it uses only publicly available data, it is fully reproducible and can be easily extended. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.03716 |
| By: | Alejandro Puerta-Cuartas |
| Abstract: | Measuring the intergenerational transmission of lifetime economic status is complicated by researchers often only observing snapshots of income at specific ages. Consequently, standard practice estimates intergenerational mobility using income averages, introducing life-cycle bias that compromises reliability and comparability across studies, time, and place. I develop a missing data framework that exploits available income data and observable characteristics to eliminate life-cycle bias. This method combines nonparametric identification with Neyman-orthogonal moments to construct debiased machine learning estimators for intergenerational income mobility measures under plausible missing-at-random and testable independence assumptions. I apply this framework to estimate the intergenerational elasticity for the U.S. using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics across birth cohorts from 1954 to 1977 with rolling 10-year windows. While existing approaches estimate values between 0.41 and 0.54, the proposed method yields substantially higher estimates ranging from 0.6 to 0.7, averaging 0.64. These results align closely with recent evidence using long time averages over mid-career periods, reinforcing high U.S. intergenerational persistence. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.04994 |
| By: | Leonardo Bursztyn (University of Chicago and NBER); Angela Duckworth (University of Pennsylvania); Rafael Jiménez-Durán (Bocconi University, IGIER, CEPR, CESifo, and Stigler Center); Aaron Leonard (University of Chicago); Filip Milojević (University of Chicago); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne, MPI for Behavioral Economics, and CEPR); Cass R. Sunstein (Harvard Law School) |
| Abstract: | In December 2025, Australia became the first country to ban youth under 16 years old from holding accounts on major social media platforms, a policy now under consideration in more than a dozen countries and in numerous states. Because social media use is inherently social, the effectiveness of a ban that is easy to circumvent may depend on whether compliance reaches a tipping point: a share of compliant peers high enough to make it optimal for individuals to comply themselves. We surveyed 746 Australian teenagers four months after the ban took effect and find that only about one in four 14–15-year-olds comply. The social environment around use has barely moved: most banned teens believe that their peers are still using banned platforms and cite social reasons for continuing use. Sustaining high compliance requires two ingredients: the share of compliers must be high enough and those who comply must find it preferable to continue complying. The current ban achieves neither. Teenagers report that they require roughly two-thirds of peers to stop using social media to stop themselves, far above the share currently complying. They also perceive compliers as less popular than non-compliers, so the more influential teens disproportionately stay on the platforms. Together, these patterns suggest that compliance is more likely to diminish than to rise. Sustaining higher compliance will likely require pairing the ban with instruments that act on social norms and individual incentives directly. Length: 31 pages |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-57 |
| By: | Kedar, Vishnu |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404312 |
| By: | Sanat, Lyazzat |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404398 |