|
on Investment |
| By: | Barry Chiswick; Hope Corman; Dhaval Dave; Nancy E. Reichman |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes, for the first time, the effect of increases in the minimum wage on the labor market outcomes of working age adults with cognitive disabilities, a vulnerable and low-skilled sector of the actual and potential labor pool. Using data from the American Community Survey (2008-2023), we estimated effects of the minimum wage on employment, labor force participation, weeks worked, and hours worked among working age individuals with cognitive disabilities using a generalized difference-in-differences research design. We found that a higher effective minimum wage leads to reduced employment and labor force participation among individuals with cognitive disabilities but has no significant effect on labor supply at the intensive margin for this group. Adverse impacts were particularly pronounced for those with lower educational attainment. In contrast, we found no significant labor market effects of an increase in the minimum wage for individuals with physical disabilities or in the non-disabled population. |
| Keywords: | Minimum Wage, Cognitive Disability, Employment, Labor Market Outcomes, American Community Survey |
| JEL: | J14 J2 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2540 |
| By: | Sydnee Caldwell; Ingrid Haegele; Jörg Heining |
| Abstract: | We estimate firm-specific amenity valuations using discrete choice experiments embedded in a large-scale survey of German workers linked to administrative records. Workers rank hypothetical offers from real firms they would consider joining, with randomized wages identifying money-metric valuations. Valuations vary substantially across firms and demographic groups, yet a single index performs surprisingly well. Valuations are approximately orthogonal to firm wage premia; they therefore do not offset between-firm wage inequality. However, male-female differences in amenity valuations explain part of the gender wage gap. |
| JEL: | J31 J32 J33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35149 |
| By: | Louise Devos; François Rycx; Thomas Senterre; Mélanie Volral (-) |
| Abstract: | Using matched employer–employee data on more than 62, 000 master’s graduates, this paper examines how gender differences in wage returns to fields of study vary by migration background and how educational specialisation contributes to the gender wage gap. We estimate wage regressions and apply a decomposition approach to separate sorting across fields from differences in pay within fields. Returns vary widely, with law, economics and management, and science yielding the highest returns, and women earning less than men within all fields, especially in high-paying ones. First-generation immigrants from developing countries obtain the lowest returns regardless of field of study, while second-generation immigrants approach but do not fully match natives. Fields of study explain a substantial share of gender wage inequality among natives and second-generation immigrants, whereas among first-generation immigrants broader wage disadvantages dominate. Results further vary with the number of parents originating from developing countries and with age at arrival. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, first- and second-generation immigrants, field of study, employer-employee data |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:26/1141 |
| By: | Hirofumi Wakimoto |
| Abstract: | This paper develops the logical extension of the JFR-rg framework introduced in Part I within the same observables-centered and regime-conditional architecture. Six extensions are formalized: the Virtuous Ratchet (E1), the corrected Repression Dividend Multiplier (E2), the Debt Reduction Paradox (E3), the Multi-Country Repression Equilibrium (E4), the Demographic-$\phi$ Clock (E5), and the Institutional Control Rights Index (E6). Together, these clarify the dynamic implications of a JFR-rg regime for path dependence, institutional erosion, growth-enhancing investment, and regime transition in high-debt, low-growth economies. The paper's claim of logical completion is architectural rather than universal. It does not claim a full welfare-theoretic or political-economy microfoundation. Rather, it shows that the principal dynamic implications internal to Part I can be stated in closed form, and that two natural excluded generalizations -- bounded stochastic perturbations and endogenous fiscal responses -- preserve the regime logic. A Minimal Equilibrium Closure is then introduced to endogenize the sovereign risk premium through a two-layer domestic demand structure and a complementarity condition. The paper also formulates the statistical problem of inferring a latent regime boundary under one-sided regime dominance. The inferential contribution is conservative by design: it constructs outer statistical summaries of the relevant boundary objects rather than forcing point classification when the observables remain compatible with multiple nearby regime readings. Comparison with Blanchard (2019), Hoshi-Ito (2014), and Mehrotra-Sergeyev (2021) shows where JFR-rg adds explanatory value in the Japanese case: not by replacing standard debt-sustainability analysis, but by endogenizing the institutional conditions under which low sovereign rates are sustained, weakened, or lost. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.00019 |
| By: | Atulya Jain |
| Abstract: | We study a dynamic sender-receiver game in which the sender observes a state evolving according to a Markov chain but does not observe the receiver's action. Despite the absence of feedback, dynamic interaction partially restores commitment. We show that any equilibrium payoff of a persuasion model with partial commitment, where the sender can deviate to signaling policies that preserve the marginal distribution over messages, can be achieved as a uniform equilibrium payoff in the dynamic game. Moreover, any convex combination of such payoffs across message distributions can also be sustained. When the sender's payoff is state-independent, she achieves the Bayesian persuasion payoff. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26443 |
| By: | Eduardo Levy Yeyati |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly shaping economic structures, governance, and global power dynamics. Yet existing AI readiness indexes often provide a distorted view of countries’ capabilities—rewarding formal strategies and patents while overlooking deployment-first innovations, informal economies, and adaptive governance capacities. These biases particularly disadvantage Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). This paper makes two contributions to the AI readiness agenda. First, it empirically documents the divergence and conceptual inconsistencies across leading AI readiness and preparedness indexes. Second, it proposes a two-tier measurement framework: a Composite Readiness–Preparedness Index (CoRPI), providing a transparent baseline diagnostic, and an Adaptive AI Readiness Index (AARI), capturing context-specific capacities and policy learning. Together, these frameworks aim to balance comparability with relevance. By piloting the AARI in LAC, the region can serve as a testbed for a model of AI governance and measurement with global applicability. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpgobi:wp_gob_2025_2 |
| By: | Schenker, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Die Energiewende tritt in eine Phase, in der Verbraucher/innen selbst zu zentralen Akteuren werden, da Klimapolitik nun direkt in deren Entscheidungen hineinwirkt. Aus ökonomischer Sicht gilt die Bepreisung von Treibhausgasemissionen als das effizienteste Instrument, das in Europa bislang in erster Linie in Energie- und Industriesektoren eingesetzt wurde. Da mit einigem Erfolg: Seit dem Start des europäischen Emissionshandelssystems (EU ETS) im Jahre 2005 sind die Emissionen in den regulierten Sektoren um etwa 51 Prozent gesunken. Durch die Ausweitung des Emissionshandels auf den Gebäude- und Verkehrssektor über das zweite Emissionshandelssystem (EU ETS2), voraussichtlich im Jahr 2028, wird ein zentraler Pfeiler der Energiewende für die Haushalte direkter spürbar. Modellrechnungen erwarten Preisen zwischen 100 und 300 Euro pro Tonne CO2 für die erste Hälfte der 2030er Jahre (siehe Abbildung 1), was einer ungefähren Verdoppelung bis Verfünffachung gegenüber den heutigen Preisen entspricht. Damit werden Kauf- und Investitionsentscheidungen von Haushalten zu entscheidenden Faktoren für den Erfolg der Energiewende, aber auch der dem Wahlerfolg von Parteien, weil sozial- und verteilungspolitische Aspekte der Klimapolitik in den Fokus rücken. Maßnahmen mit spürbaren Belastungen sind politisch nur tragfähig, wenn sie als legitim wahrgenommen werden. Werden Belastungen als unfair wahrgenommen, kann die Akzeptanz schnell sinken oder gar kippen. Dieser Policy Brief erläutert die Evidenz hinter diesen Zusammenhängen und diskutiert politische Handlungsoptionen, die diese Aspekte mitberücksichtigen. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:340877 |
| By: | Ran Huang |
| Abstract: | Large monetary expansions do not necessarily generate consumer-price inflation, challenging scalar views of "money supply." Here we propose that monetary function is phase-dependent: newly issued base money can occupy distinct functional compartments with different coupling to prices. Starting from an accounting framework that separates reproduction, consumption, and reservation, we operationalize a measurable order parameter, phi=RB/MB, the reserve-share fraction of the monetary base. Using Japan's monthly record (1971-2026), we identify a compositional phase transition after 2013 from a cash-dominated to a reserve-dominated regime, quantitatively captured by a Landau-type order-parameter transition. Phase-conditional local projections using unexpected (residual) base-growth shocks show that, in Japan, unexpected base expansions are absorbed primarily as reserve balances-phi rises significantly-rather than entering the consumption-goods transaction sector; consequently, the core CPI inflation response is strongly attenuated and can even reverse sign. This demonstrates that increases in monetary supply do not necessarily cause inflation: the key is the "phase" in which incremental money accumulates (reservoir versus circulation). We further define function-specific efficiencies for reservation absorption and CPI transmission and provide an operational distinction between circulation-driven and reservation-dominant inflation regimes. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.24035 |
| By: | Harold Houba (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Evgenia Motchenkova (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Advances in data collection enable firms to use consumer information for personalized pricing. In Clavorà Braulin's (2023) symmetric two-dimensional model, this reduces prices and profits, while partial privacy yields the highest profits. Extending the model to asymmetric firms and vertically differentiated products, we show that these results are not robust under sizable asymmetries. Partial privacy may harm both firm and industry profits, while no privacy can outperform other regimes. Consumer welfare also depends on asymmetry: when large, partial privacy maximizes consumer surplus. These findings challenge prior literature and inform the design of privacy protection regulations. |
| Keywords: | Personalized Prices, Price Discrimination, Consumer Information, Privacy |
| JEL: | D4 D18 L13 |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250072 |
| By: | Mr. Serhan Cevik; Maja Ivanovic |
| Abstract: | The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy are central to both research and policymaking, yet relatively little is known about how fiscal shocks impact men and women differently across diverse labor market and institutional contexts. This paper provides the first comparative analysis of gender-specific responses to exogenous fiscal shocks in the Balkans relative to the rest of Europe. Using a cross-country panel dataset and the local projection method, we trace the dynamic effects of fiscal expansions and contractions on labor force participation, employment, and wage outcomes. The results reveal substantial regional variation and pronounced gender asymmetries. Expansionary fiscal shocks lead to modest and delayed improvements in female labor market outcomes in the Balkans, whereas effects in other European countries are stronger and more immediate. Conversely, contractionary shocks disproportionately reduce female employment, especially during downturns, with greater volatility observed in Balkan economies. These patterns reflect differences in sectoral employment composition, care infrastructure, and public service provision. Overall, the findings suggest that fiscal policy operates within structurally gendered labor markets, highlighting important implications for macroeconomic stabilization and labor market resilience in transitional economies. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy; gender; labor-market outcomes; Balkans; Europe |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/088 |
| By: | Sean S. Cao; Wei Jiang; Hui Xu |
| Abstract: | This research explores how human-defined goals influence the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) through purpose-conditioned cognition. Using financial prediction tasks, we show that revealing the downstream use (e.g., predicting stock returns or earnings) of LLM outputs leads the LLM to generate biased sentiment and competition measures, even though these measures are intended to be downstream task–independent. Goal-aware prompting shifts these intermediate measures toward the disclosed downstream objective, producing in-sample overfitting. Specifically, purpose leakage improves performance on data prior to the LLM’s knowledge cutoff, but provides no advantage after the cutoff. This bias is strong enough that regularization of prompt instructions cannot fully address this form of overfitting. We further show that the bias can arise from users’ unintentional conversational context that hints at the purpose. Overall, we document that AI bias due to “seeing the goal” is not an algorithmic flaw, but stems from human accountability in research design. |
| JEL: | G14 G17 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35142 |
| By: | Souhayl Dahmani (UPCité - Université Paris Cité, ARENES - Arènes: politique, santé publique, environnement, médias - UR - Université de Rennes - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, RSMS - Recherche sur les services et le management en santé - UR - Université de Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Hôpital Robert Debré - AP-HP - Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP)); Mathias Waelli (UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva); Odessa Dariel (UR - Université de Rennes, EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique, ARENES - Arènes: politique, santé publique, environnement, médias - UR - Université de Rennes - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, RSMS - Recherche sur les services et le management en santé - UR - Université de Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IDM - Institut du Management - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique) |
| Abstract: | Introduction: Professional differentiation and identity differences (goal discordancy, competency separation, norm diversity, and work process dissonance and information opacity) in healthcare have been associated with poor coordination and decreased performance in operative suites (OS). As the major medical professional stakeholders involved in the management of OS, the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of surgeons' and anesthesiologists' professional identities (PI) on perceived performance. Methods: This is a qualitative comparative case study using semi-structural interviews and observations conducted in OS of four hospitals (two teaching, one public non-teaching and one private). PI were analyzed and compared between surgeons ( n = 13) and anesthesiologists ( n = 13). Differences in perceived performance (as described by stakeholders) were compared across the four facilities according to variations in PI. Results: The findings suggest that for-profit hospitals were associated with increased perceived performance. Moreover, differences in PI were associated with increased conflicts and differences in perceived performance. A lack of respect for shift end times for anesthesiologists in public hospitals and the need for additional operating shifts for surgeons were associated with lower perceived performance. However, these conflicts were often the result of organizational problems (human resources availability, optimization of operating shifts…etc.) rather than PI antagonism. Discussion: Resolving PI antagonism between anesthesiologists and surgeons is unlikely to have any influence on perceived OS performance. Rather than acting on PI, improved performance would be better achieved by improving management and leadership skills to facilitate information and communication between professionals. |
| Keywords: | surgeon, professional identity, organizational performance, operating suites, multi-team system, anaesthesiologists |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05604763 |
| By: | Wan Annisa Sofia Wan Kamaruddin (International Islamic University Malaysia, 53100, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - This review critically evaluates the study by (Park et al., 2023), which examines the impact of for-profit religious-affiliated companies' (FPRCs) dual identity on customers' perceptions of greed and purchasing behavior, potentially triggered by a perceived misalignment between moral expectations and commercial motives. It highlights the study's strengths and weaknesses, proposes areas for improvement, and offers an alternative perspective rooted in Islamic principles, which may yield different implications for advertising strategies in religious business contexts. Methodology/Technique - The paper under review employed both online and field experimental methods to investigate the impact of direct and indirect advertising appeals on customer perceptions and behavior. Findings - The study under review found that indirect appeal ads, particularly those involving third-party endorsements, effectively reduced perceptions of greed and increased actual purchasing behavior toward FPRCs. While the study offers valuable insights, this review identifies several limitations, including the absence of a guiding theoretical framework and a narrow focus on food products. Moreover, it suggests that indirect appeal strategies may not be universally effective across all religious contexts, particularly in Islamic settings where transparency and direct ethical communication are emphasized. Novelty - This review introduces new insights by examining the applicability of indirect advertising strategies from an Islamic perspective. It challenges the universality of indirect appeals for all FPRCs, proposing that direct appeals may be more effective in contexts where businesses, particularly in the food sector, must adhere to specific religious requirements, such as Halal principles. This perspective encourages deeper exploration of religious and ethical influences on advertising effectiveness. Type of Paper - Review" |
| Keywords: | For-profit religious-affiliated companies (FPRCs); Direct appeal; Indirect appeal; Islamic Business Law; Halal |
| JEL: | M31 M37 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr362 |
| By: | Hans A. Holter; Dirk Krueger; Serhiy Stepanchuk |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that a progressive tax system combined with individual taxation of married couples can generate more revenue than the current household-based U.S. system, especially when the extra revenues do not induce negative labor supply effects through increased government transfers. A progressive system that taxes individuals rather than couples jointly leads to larger labor force participation and higher average human capital, creates more “fiscal space”, Laffer curves shift up and social welfare potentially rises. In our model with one- and two-earner households, human capital and an extensive margin labor supply decision, the peak of the Laffer curve is 18 percentage points higher with an individual-based, progressive tax system than with the current U.S. tax system. The maximum revenue is attained with 100% more progressivity than the current system, and at an average tax rate of 42%. Progressive taxation, when imposed on individuals rather than households, lowers the average tax rate for individuals with modest potential income that are close to the participation margin. At the same time, it creates a positive income effect on the labor supply of these individuals by reducing the net income of their higher earning spouses and limiting their net earnings potential in the case of a high temporary labor productivity. Steady state social welfare is larger with individual taxation. The optimal progressivity is higher than the current U.S. status quo, and results in welfare gains of 0.8% in consumption-equivalent variation. Cohorts born during the transition also experience significant welfare gains from this reform. |
| JEL: | E62 H20 H60 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35137 |
| By: | Eric Latimer; Karine Perreault; Caleb Foster; Alex Schurr; Dimitra Panagiotoglou; Erin C. Strumpf |
| Abstract: | Quebec has seen a sharp rise in visible homelessness in recent years. During the count on April 15 2025, 12, 077 people were counted as being homeless, corresponding to a 20% increase compared to 2022. Homelessness poses serious challenges. In addition to the human suffering it causes, it is associated with significantly higher mortality rates. This mortality is largely attributable to high rates of smoking, alcoholism and drug addiction, as well as limited access to healthcare. This report adopts two main complementary approaches: (1) literature reviews and (2) an estimate of the costs associated with homelessness in Quebec in 2022–2023, based on administrative data and certain data drawn from the 2018 and 2022 counts. The literature review reveals that rent prices are a significant structural predictor of homelessness. The unemployment rate, by contrast, yields much less conclusive results. ‘Housing First’ programmes, which provide permanent housing accompanied by psychosocial support and without preconditions, significantly reduce the costs associated with the intensive use of public services, particularly in the health sector. Permanent housing appears to be preferable to transitional housing. As for the link between social assistance benefits and homelessness, the evidence is limited, but does not support the idea that more generous benefits encourage homelessness. The annual economic costs associated with people experiencing homelessness for the year 2022–2023 are conservatively estimated at $782 million, of which $445 million comes from expenditure by community organisations serving people experiencing homelessness, divided between emergency accommodation, meals and psychosocial support. Le Québec a connu une forte augmentation de l’itinérance visible au cours des dernières années. Lors du dénombrement du 15 avril 2025, on a dénombré 12 077 personnes en situation d’itinérance, correspondant à une hausse de 20 % par rapport à 2022. L’itinérance pose des enjeux graves. Outre la souffrance humaine qu’elle engendre, elle est associée à une surmortalité importante. Cette mortalité est en grande partie attribuable à des taux élevés de tabagisme, d’alcoolisme et de toxicomanie, ainsi qu’à un accès limité aux soins. Ce rapport adopte deux grandes approches complémentaires : (1) des revues de la littérature et (2) une estimation des coûts associés à l’itinérance au Québec en 2022–2023, à partir de données administratives et de certaines données tirées des dénombrements de 2018 et 2022. La revue de littérature révèle que le prix des loyers constitue un prédicteur structurel important de l’itinérance. Le taux de chômage, en revanche, révèle des résultats beaucoup moins probants. Les programmes de type « Logement d’abord » qui fournissent un logement permanent accompagné de soutiens psychosociaux et sans conditions préalables permettent de réduire significativement les coûts liés à l’utilisation intensive des services publics, notamment en santé. Le logement permanent semble préférable au logement de transition. Quant au lien entre prestations d’assistance sociale et itinérance, la littérature est mince, mais ne soutient pas l’idée que des prestations plus généreuses incitent à l’itinérance. Les coûts économiques annuels associés aux personnes en situation d’itinérance pour l’année 2022–2023 sont estimés de façon conservatrice à 782 millions $ dont 445 millions $ proviennent des dépenses des organismes communautaires desservant des personnes en situation d’itinérance réparties en hébergement d’urgence, repas, soutien psychosocial. |
| Keywords: | homelessness, economic costs, housing first, transitional housing, income supports, public services, service utilization, community-based organizations, itinérance, sans-abrisme, coûts économiques, logement d'abord, logement de transition, aide au revenu, services publics, utilisation des services, organismes communautaires |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2026rp-10 |
| By: | Jan C.van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | Team production is increasingly important for economic outcomes, yet the factors driving team performance remain poorly understood. This paper examines the influence of psychological factors on team performance using data from the top divisions of the five major European football leagues, with a particular focus on the phenomenon of home advantage. Home advantage has been widely studied, and research has reached a point where further progress is challenging. This study offers a modest but insightful contribution by distinguishing between goals and expected goals to separate the creation of scoring opportunities from the conversion of those chances into actual goals, which reflects individual performance. The analysis shows that home teams not only generate more scoring chances but also convert them into goals more efficiently. In the absence of a stadium crowd, home advantages in goals and expected goals are substantially reduced, and the home advantage in the conversion of expected goals into actual goals is virtually absent. These findings suggest that psychological factors can be stimulating and have a positive effect on productivity, rather than workers choking under pressure and thereby decreasing their productivity. |
| Keywords: | Home advantage, professional football, expected goals |
| JEL: | D91 L83 Z20 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260005 |
| By: | Marco Bertoni (University of Padova); Paolo Falco (University of Copenhagen); Luigi Guiso (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF) and CEPR); Tullio Jappelli (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF, and CEPR); Roberto Nisticò (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and IZA) |
| Abstract: | We use a large-scale survey experiment in Italy to study how citizens update their beliefs about the effects of highly salient and politically contested policy reforms when exposed to scientific evidence. We find that while prior beliefs are often inconsistent with accurate scientific evidence, providing this evidence shifts beliefs towards accuracy. Crucially, belief updating is largely independent of the political alignment of media source conveying the information. This suggests that credible evidence can overcome partisan divides. |
| Keywords: | Policy misperceptions; Belief updating; Media bias |
| JEL: | D83 D72 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:776 |
| By: | Brown, Jessica (University of South Carolina) |
| Abstract: | The most widely used measure of child care access is “child care deserts, †defined as areas with three or more young children per licensed child care slot. But a high child-to-slot ratio may reflect low demand for formal care rather than a shortage. In the canonical model, equilibrium quantities reflect local demand and costs, so the ease of finding care should not vary systematically. I use center-based provider vacancy rates as a proxy for families’ ability to access care and test whether they are negatively correlated with desert status and two alternative measures that adjust for demand. The first captures deviations between actual and predicted supply in demographically similar areas. The second compares licensed slots to the number of young children with all parents working. Desert status weakly predicts low center-based vacancy rates, while the alternative measures strongly predict low infant and toddler vacancy rates. These findings suggest that child care is harder to find in some areas, providing suggestive evidence of market frictions and a potential role for policy. However, identifying such areas requires adjusting low supply thresholds for local population characteristics. |
| Keywords: | child care market, child care deserts, targeting |
| JEL: | J13 H75 H54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18597 |
| By: | Köppen, Magdalena (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "With the citizen's income reform, a conciliation procedure for basic income support for job seekers was introduced for the first time on 1 July 2023 (§ 15a SGB II). It applies when it is not possible to draw up or update the cooperation plan due to differences of opinion between the job centre and the beneficiary, and is intended to enable an amicable solution to be reached. The specific design of the procedure – in particular the question of whether the conciliation is conducted internally by the job centre's own employees or externally by third parties – is the responsibility of the job centre's board of trustees. The legislator thus grants them leeway in the design of the procedure and expressly refrains from imposing a uniform solution. As part of the planned new basic security system, the conciliation procedure is to be abolished. This report is the first empirical study to examine how the institutional requirements for the conciliation procedure are implemented in practice. The analysis is based on qualitative interviews with conciliators and caseworkers from three job centres each with different implementation models and different types of job centres. The analysis was carried out using thematic analysis. Ten institutional parameters derived from the law, the explanatory memorandum to the law and the technical guidelines of the Federal Employment Agency serve as the analytical frame of reference. These can be divided into three groups: requirements for conciliators (neutrality and independence, moderation, professional competence), requirements related to the procedure (legal compliance, transparency, procedural efficiency, autonomy of design, low threshold) and interaction-related requirements (openness to results, participation in the process). With regard to requirements related to the conciliator, it is apparent that neutrality is understood by all conciliators not as a given status, but as a continuous effort to be achieved. Two different understandings can be distinguished here: neutrality through equidistance and conscious abstinence from information on the one hand, and neutrality through active knowledge exchange and mediating on the other. With regard to moderation, too, self-image and expectations vary between passive process support and active steering with conciliator's own proposed solutions. In terms of professional competence, there is a key difference between internal and external conciliators in that internal conciliators have accumulated system knowledge from their consulting work, while external conciliators had to acquire this knowledge retrospectively. In terms of requirements related to the procedure, legal compliance is primarily understood as setting boundaries for the scope of action for conciliation. The pivotal function of the procedure is significant: it offers temporary protection against reduced benefits during its duration, but opens the way to sanctions in the event of failure. Transparency is understood as an ongoing task. Internal conciliators use direct access to the job centre and strategically position the conciliation as a support tool. For external conciliators, information practices are a ‘black box’. The caseworkers’ duty to inform beneficiaries about the conciliation possibility is generally regarded as a central mechanism for creating transparency, but in practice it is unreliable for various reasons. The efficiency of the procedure is assessed by caseworkers as users primarily on the basis of the subjective added value for their further work. The autonomy granted to job centres and conciliators as implementers varies according to institutional location. Internal conciliators tend to make extensive use of their scope for action, while external conciliators limit themselves to the methodological and content-related level. Low thresholds are sought through methods, simple language and the option of an accompanying person. However, this approach has its limits, as internal procedures tend to be low-threshold for caseworkers, but can be burdensome for beneficiaries. External procedures offer symbolic neutrality, but can themselves be high-threshold depending on how access is designed. With regard to interaction-related requirements, two orientations of conciliators can be reconstructed for the requirement of openness to results. Output orientation is characterised by the goal of labour market integration being considered fixed and the means of achieving it as negotiable. Process orientation, on the other hand, accepts the failure to reach an agreement as a legitimate outcome. Participation in the process is understood as an active dialogue, but is not a given. Voluntary participation proves to be structurally limited for both sides. Beneficiaries weigh up participation against the possible consequences, while caseworkers sometimes see participation and initiation as inevitable or as a means of enforcing their demands. Overall, the findings show that institutional requirements are not implemented as fixed rules, but are interpreted subjectively and situationally. The result is not a uniform implementation, but rather variations in local practices. The institutional location of the conciliation structures the framework conditions of practice, but does not determine them completely. The professional orientation of the conciliators is also significant. The roles of caseworkers as users on the one hand and gatekeepers of information on the other are also constitutive. Regarding the institutional requirements in the overall picture, it becomes apparent that these can be mutually dependent and limiting in their implementation. These tensions result not least from the hybrid nature of the instrument itself. Its conceptual vagueness creates different and sometimes contradictory expectations in its implementation and among those involved." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2026–05–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202606 |
| By: | Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University) |
| Abstract: | Urban planners need up-to-date, global, and consistent street network models and indicators to measure resilience and performance, model accessibility, and target local quality-of-life interventions. This article presents up-to-date street network models and indicators for every urban area in the world. It uses 2025 urban area boundaries from the Global Human Settlement Layer, allowing users to join these data to hundreds of other urban attributes. Its workflow ingests 180 million OpenStreetMap nodes and 360 million OpenStreetMap edges across 10, 351 urban areas in 189 countries. The code, models, and indicators are publicly available for reuse. These resources unlock worldwide urban street network science beyond samples as well as local analyses in under-resourced regions where models and indicators are otherwise less-accessible. |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z9cqh_v1 |