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on Investment |
| By: | Qianqian Yang (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nobuaki Hamaguchi (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a spatial general equilibrium model with exogenous minimum wages to investigate regional minimum wage disparities in the New Economic Geography. Numerical simulations in a two-region economy reveal the impact of minimum wage hikes on the spatial distribution of firms. We observe industrial hollowing out beyond a critical minimum wage gap threshold, yet regions with higher minimum wages can remain attractive as the core, particularly with low transport costs. Such attractiveness can be interpreted as agglomeration rent. We further examine the sustainability of the core-periphery pattern and the impact of minimum wage increases on the local labor market. |
| Keywords: | Spatial general equilibrium model; Minimum wage; Core-periphery pattern; Transport cost |
| JEL: | F12 F16 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-09 |
| By: | González, Ignacio (American University); Sala, Hector (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Trivín, Pedro (University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of minimum wage increases on household consumption, focusing on Spain’s 2019 minimum wage increase, which raised the floor on wages by an unprecedented 22.3% in a low-inflation environment. Leveraging high-frequency, confidential transaction data from point-of-sale devices and credit card payments at the municipal level, we exploit geographic variation in exposure to the reform to identify its effects. We find that the increase led to a significant rise of 4.5% in household consumption, with the largest gains concentrated in nonessential categories such as electronics, leisure, and spending at restaurants and hotels. We corroborate these findings using household-level data from the Spanish Household Budget Survey. Our findings can be rationalized by a simple model featuring nonhomothetic preferences. |
| Keywords: | nonhomothetic preferences, minimum wage, consumption, transaction data, discretionary spending |
| JEL: | D12 E21 H31 J31 R20 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17923 |
| By: | Ignacio González (Department of Economics, American University.); Hector Sala (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) & IZA); Pedro Trivín (DEMM, University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of minimum wage increases on household consumption, focusing on Spain’s 2019 mínimum wage increase, which raised the floor on wages by an unprecedented 22.3% in a low-inflation environment. Leveraging high-frequency, confidential transaction data from point-of-sale devices and crèdit card païments at the municipal level, we exploit geographic variation in exposure to the reform to identify its effects. We find that the increase led to a significant rise of 4.5% in household consumption, with the largest gains concentrated in non essential categories such as electronics, leisure, and spending at restaurants and hotels. We corroborate these findings using household-level data from the Spanish Household Budget Survey. Our findings can be rationalized by a simple model featuring nonhomothetic preferences. |
| Keywords: | Minimum Wage, Consumption, Transaction Data, Discretionary Spending, Nonhomothetic Preferences. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2503 |
| By: | Zademach, Hans-Martin; Malburg-Graf, Barbara; Warner, Barbara; Dudek, Simon; Graef, Marie; Jerjen, Damian; Kießling, Nadine; Kufeld, Walter; Miosga, Manfred; Neubauer, Petra; Ritzinger, Anne; Stark, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Wie kann die Diskrepanz zwischen dem Anspruch an eine Raumentwicklung, die vom Gedanken einer starken Nachhaltigkeit geleitet und auf das Ziel einer großen Transformation orientiert ist, und einer oftmals ernüchternden Wirklichkeit der Planungspraxis verringert werden? Die vorgestellten elf Botschaften, jeweils verknüpft mit einem Zukunftsbild und einer Reihe von zugehörigen Maßnahmen und Vorgehensweisen, fassen die Diskussionen aus der Perspektive von Tagungsteilnehmenden aus Planungspraxis und Wissenschaft zusammen. Sie sind das Ergebnis einer zweitägigen Tagung. Die Aussagen adressieren die Bedingungen bzw. die institutionelle Ausgestaltung transformativer Planung als öffentliche Aufgabe, verdeutlichen einzelne Handlungsansätze und Instrumente für Raumplanung und Landesentwicklung und zeigen Perspektiven für das Verwaltungshandeln auf. Das vorliegende Positionspapier baut auf dem Positionspapier aus der ARL 148 auf. |
| Abstract: | How can the discrepancy between the demand for spatial development that is guided by the idea of strong sustainability and oriented towards the goal of a major transformation and the often rather disappointing planning reality be reduced? Eleven statements are presented, each linked to a vision of the future and a series of associated measures and approaches. They summarize the discussions from the perspective of participants from planning practice and science as a result of a two-day conference. The statements address the conditions and institutional design of transformative planning as a public task. They illustrate instruments and procedures of spatial planning and regional development, which in some cases need to be newly developed, and point out perspectives for administrative activities. This position paper draws on ARL position paper no. 148. |
| Keywords: | Große Transformation, nachhaltige Raumentwicklung, Planungs- und Raumentwicklungspraxis, Great Transformation, sustainable spatial development, planning and spatial development practice |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:319078 |
| By: | Behera, Harendra; Mazumder, Debojyoti; ., Kaustubh |
| Abstract: | The paper finds the role of dynamic structural heterogeneity in establishing the empirical existence and convexity of the wage Phillips curve for large emerging economies. Using Indian state-level data, we find a negative and convex relationship between earnings growth and unemployment after controlling for structural labour market factors that vary over time and across states. The fixed effects regression model suggests that a higher speed of formalization makes the wage-Phillips curve flatter, controlling for changes in the composition of labour supply and skilling. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, Wage growth, Wage Phillips curve, Emerging Economies |
| JEL: | E60 J20 J30 |
| Date: | 2025–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124647 |
| By: | Víctor Chang (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas Empresariales, Universidad Ricardo Palma); Alex Flores (Unidad de Análisis de Datos, Investigación e Inteligencia Estratégica, ProInversión); Axel Vega (Unidad de Análisis de Datos, Investigación e Inteligencia Estratégica, ProInversión) |
| Abstract: | El objetivo del artículo es cuantificar el efecto que ha tenido la implementación de proyectos realizados por el Fondo Social Salaverry sobre la lucha contra la pandemia de la COVID-19, el déficit de educación básica, así como su impacto en la actividad económica. Para tal fin, se emplea un panel de datos con información anual entre el 2017 y 2022 de 10 distritos de la provincia de Trujillo para analizar los resultados en salud y actividad económica; y de 35 distritos del departamento de La Libertad para analizar los efectos sobre la educación urbana. Los impactos se calculan a través de la estimación del modelo de diferencias en diferencias y estos se complementan con la comparación bajo el método de control sintético. Los resultados evidencian que los proyectos implementados por el Fondo Social Salaverry tuvieron un impacto significativo en la reducción del número de defunciones en el contexto de la COVID-19, un incremento de la tasa de matrícula urbana y una mejora en la actividad económica. |
| Keywords: | Fondo Social Salaverry, diferencias en diferencias, control sintético, contratos de APP |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aav:wpaper:001 |
| By: | Yandiev Magomet (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | The article is devoted to the explanation of the reason of the post-IPO stock undervaluation phenomenon, which is quite widespread in the markets. The author shows that the first day of trading fundamentally differs from other trading days by a very large, uncharacteristic for other days volume of deals, the absolute majority of which are speculative. As a result, the real reason for the phenomenon of undervaluation is not information asymmetry, underwriter’s reputation, taxation, etc., but the profit: speculative investors expect to get the maximum income from speculating on shares whose quotations have not yet settled in the market after the IPO. |
| Keywords: | IPO, underpricing, Russia |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G23 G32 G41 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0069 |
| By: | Fourie, Jurgens; Steenkamp, Daan |
| Abstract: | We identify South African business cycles using the algorithm of Bry-Boschan and show that the identified turning points are very similar to those from other approaches. We demonstrate that South Africa has a very volatile business cycle that makes it particularly difficult to predict turning points in the economic cycle. South Africa’s business cycle is characterised by relatively long downswings and short upswing phases with low amplitude. We find that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Leading Indicator does not substantive improve predictions of the business cycle relative to GDP itself. We assess the performance of a range of potential leading indicators in identifying economic downturns and consider whether alternative indicators and estimation approaches can produce better predictions than those of the SARB. We demonstrate that using a larger information set produces substantially better business cycle predictions, especially when using machine learning techniques. Our findings have implications for the creation of composite leading indicators, with our results suggesting that many of the macroeconomic variables considered by analysts as leading indicators do not provide good signals of GDP growth or developments in the South African business cycle. |
| Keywords: | business cycle, forecast, leading indicator, economic downturns |
| JEL: | E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124709 |
| By: | Wei Liang; Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | This paper models the cyclical rise and fall of total power - an aggregate of political, economic, military, and ideological strength-through the interplay of power accumulation, consumption, and endogenous non-linear feedback effects such as corruption and inefficiency. By framing total power as a dynamic system, we derive an optimal logistic decision rule for power accumulation from an infinite-horizon optimization problem where the state maximizes long-term utility from power and consumption. A key finding is that the state's time preference (discount factor β) intrinsically determines the logistic map's growth parameter (A). Analyzing this logistic rule using bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov exponents, and the Feigenbaum constant, we demonstrate how decreasing patience (lower β, thus higher A) drives transitions from stable equilibria through period doubling cascades (limit cycles) into chaotic regimes, leading to collapse. Finally, we simulate historical power collapses, including those of the Roman Empire, the Soviet Union, and the Ming Dynasty, showing that all state collapses follow the same universal mathematical path - from order to chaos - driven by shifts in effective growth parameters. |
| Keywords: | Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos Theory, Power Cycles, State Collapse, Dynamic Optimization |
| JEL: | C61 D72 D74 H11 N40 |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:763 |
| By: | Rodrigo Pérez Artica (CONICET); Joel Rabinovich (King's College London); Nicolás Hernán Zeolla (Central Bank of Argentina) |
| Abstract: | Las emisiones de bonos corporativos provenientes de economías emergentes han sido el principal factor impulsor de la expansión de la deuda global tras la crisis financiera mundial de 2008. Y si bien los países asiáticos han acumulado el mayor volumen de emisiones, las empresas latinoamericanas fueron las más dinámicos, siendo la región con mayor crecimiento de estas emisiones. Este artículo estudia las motivaciones subyacentes que llevan a las empresas no financieras de América Latina a colocar deuda mediante emisión de bonos. Tradicionalmente, la narrativa más aceptada en la literatura sobre el tema ha subrayado las operaciones de carry-trade como el factor predominante del propósito para utilizar los ingresos por emisión de bonos denominados en moneda extranjera. Adoptando un enfoque metodológico innovador, en este trabajo cuestionamos el conjunto de ideas vinculadas a esta hipótesis. En este sentido, realizamos dos aportes, uno metodológico y uno analítico. Por un lado, en vez de observar los incentivos ex ante basados en diferenciales de tasas de interés globales, como hace la literatura previa, utilizamos las ganancias ex post provenientes de intereses registradas en balances a nivel empresas. Siguiendo esta metodología, no encontramos evidencia que respalde la existencia de prácticas de carry-trade tras las emisiones. Por el contrario, observamos una elevada relación entre emisiones de bonos y gastos de capital, aspecto que pone en duda la noción de motivos especulativos detrás de las emisiones. Por otro lado, y como segundo aporte, observamos analíticamente el uso alternativo de los fondos para administrar su pasivo. Los resultados sugieren que las empresas latinoamericanas, han aprovechado las políticas monetarias laxas a nivel internacional para reducir la deuda de corto plazo y extender los plazos de vencimientos, como así también aumentaron estratégicamente las tenencias de efectivo en sus balances como salvaguarda frente a potenciales cambios en el contexto mundial. |
| Keywords: | emisiones de bonos; economías emergentes; América Latina; deuda corporativa; carry-trade; política monetaria; estructura de pasivos; inversión en capital |
| JEL: | G15 G32 F34 E44 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcr:wpaper:2024116 |
| By: | de Vos, Wout (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Borm, Peter (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Hamers, Herbert (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | opinion dynamics; networks; influence; precision targeting; nash equilibria |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:b21371ea-a12a-4e8d-8b21-f60eb10b6a03 |
| By: | Jan Goebel; Christian Krekel; Katrin Rehdanz |
| Abstract: | Most people consider parks important for their quality of life, yet systematic causal evidence is missing. We exploit exogenous variations in their use values to estimate causal effects. Using a representative household panel with precise geographical coordinates of households linked to satellite images of green spaces with a nationwide coverage, we employ a spatial difference-in-differences design, comparing within-individual changes between residents living close to a green space and those living further away. We exploit Covid-19 as exogenous shock. We find that green spaces raised overall life satisfaction while reducing symptoms of anxiety (feelings of nervousness and worry) and depression. There is also suggestive evidence for reduced loneliness. Given the number of people in their surroundings, a compensating-surplus calculation suggests that parks added substantial benefits during the period studied. |
| Keywords: | Parks, Green Spaces, Mental Health, Quasi-Natural Experiment, Compensating Surplus, Wellbeing |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2106 |
| By: | Pol Campos-Mercade (Department of Economics, Lund University); Claes Ek (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg); Magnus Soederberg (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University); Florian H. Schneider (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Standard economic theory assumes that consumers ignore the externalities they create, such as emissions from burning fossil fuels and generating waste. In an incentivized study (N = 3, 718), we find that most people forgo substantial gains to avoid imposing negative externalities on others. Using administrative data on household waste, we show a clear link between such prosociality and waste behavior: prosociality predicts lower residual waste generation and higher waste sorting. Prosociality also predicts survey-reported pro-environmental behaviors such as lowering indoor temperature, limiting air travel, and consuming eco-friendly products. These findings highlight the importance of considering social preferences in environmental policy. |
| Keywords: | social preferences, prosociality, environmental behaviors, externalities |
| JEL: | D01 D62 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2506 |
| By: | Valenzuela-Rivera, Luis |
| Abstract: | Based on representative samples of gig workers from Chile (drivers and riders working through applications like Uber and Rappi), this paper explores the subjective and objective impact of two Chilean laws regarding the gig economy. The demographic and employment characteristics of these workers, including job satisfaction and motivation, are also analyzed. Overall, laws have a muted to negative effect on workers. For the first law (which formalizes the status of gig workers as workers), those who report a negative impact associate it with less flexibility regarding working hours, in addition to the now compulsory income taxes. For the second law (which increases the requirements to work as driver), more than half report that they will stop working. Partial compliance with the law also stands out, which is particularly clear in the low and stable rate of income reporting to the State by workers. |
| Keywords: | ig workers, gig economy, job satisfaction, social policy |
| JEL: | J28 J46 J88 K31 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124894 |
| By: | Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. (Sabanci University); Ersan, Yasar (Ankara University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the causal effect of education on financial outcomes related to stock markets and retirement savings, leveraging a major compulsory school reform and a unique data set covering the universe of investors in Türkiye. The estimates show no effects on participation rates, portfolio composition, or return performance. Moreover, education does not appear to influence behavioral biases or heuristics in retirement plans. The reform leads to a 3% increase in pension savings for females, with no significant effect on males. Higher earnings and increased employment with employer-sponsored pension plans appear as potential mechanisms driving the wealth effect. |
| Keywords: | Wealth, Retirement, Education, Investment Decisions |
| JEL: | I21 I26 G11 G41 G50 G53 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17927 |
| By: | Michael Smolyansky; Gustavo A. Suarez |
| Abstract: | When the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, do the prices of riskier assets fall relative to safer assets? Or, do investors interpret policy tightening as a signal that economic fundamentals are stronger than they previously believed, thus leading riskier assets to outperform? We present evidence that the latter of these two forces empirically dominates within the U.S. corporate bond market. Following an unanticipated monetary policy tightening, riskier corporate bonds outperform safer corporate bonds, demonstrating the importance of an informational, or non-monetary, component within monetary policy announcements. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Corporate bonds; Non-monetary news; Federal Reserve information effect; Reaching for yield |
| JEL: | E40 E52 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:100026 |
| By: | Javier Cembrano; Andr\'es Moraga; Victor Verdugo |
| Abstract: | We study resource allocation in two-sided markets from a fundamental perspective and introduce a general modeling and algorithmic framework to effectively incorporate the complex and multidimensional aspects of fairness. Our main technical contribution is to show the existence of a range of near-feasible resource allocations parameterized in different model primitives to give flexibility when balancing the different policymaking requirements, allowing policy designers to fix these values according to the specific application. To construct our near-feasible allocations, we start from a fractional resource allocation and perform an iterative rounding procedure to get an integer allocation. We show a simple yet flexible and strong sufficient condition for the target feasibility deviations to guarantee that the rounding procedure succeeds, exhibiting the underlying trade-offs between market capacities, agents' demand, and fairness. To showcase our framework's modeling and algorithmic capabilities, we consider three prominent market design problems: school allocation, stable matching with couples, and political apportionment. In each of them, we obtain strengthened guarantees on the existence of near-feasible allocations capturing the corresponding fairness notions, such as proportionality, envy-freeness, and stability. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.01178 |