|
on Investment |
| By: | Yan Chen; Jiaxiong Yao |
| Abstract: | Most European countries have a single national minimum wage. An increase in minimum wage implies shocks of different magnitudes to sectors and subnational regions. Using sectoral and regional variations of minimum wage to average wage ratios in European countries, we estimate the dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects of minimum wage changes on employment through local projections and generalized random forests. We find that the average employment effects of minimum wage increases tend to be negligible in the short term but negative in the medium to long term. The employment effects are heterogeneous in gender, age, the size of the minimum wage increase, and the minimum wage to average wage ratio. Minimum wage increases appear to have a threshold effect on employment at the sectoral level. The employment effects become negative when the minimum wage is above 35 percent of the sectoral average wage. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; employment; treatment effect |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/241 |
| By: | Bello, Lateef Olalekan; Awotide, Bola Amoke; Danso-Abbeam, Gideon; Sakurai, Takeshi |
| Abstract: | Climate change remains a major impediment to food security in majority of developing countries, such as the West Africa Sahel (WASR), due to the rudimentary and rain-fed production system practiced by most farmers. The adoption of climate-smart agricultural technologies (CSAT), which aim to increase resilience and adaptation to changing climatic conditions, is crucial for boosting crop productivity and increasing food sufficiency. This study examined the food security impact of smallholder farmers adopting CSAT in WASR (Mali and Niger). We control for potential endogeneity bias that could occur in this study by employing the extended ordered probit and multinomial endogenous treatment effect model to analyze food security impact using the two most common approaches, which are the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) and Food Consumption Scores (FCS). The impact results from the HFIAS estimation indicate that CSAT adopters are more food insecure than non-adopters in WASR. Subsequently, the FCS estimation results show that smallholder farmers adopting CSAT are less food secure than non- adopters. Further analysis of mechanisms and pathways to food security revealed that CSAT 2 Copyright 2024 by Lateef Olalekan Bello, Bola Amoke Awotide, Gideon-Danso-Abbeam, and Takeshi Sakurai. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. adopters significantly reduced the share of crop production they retained for household consumption compared to non-adopters. Subsequent findings revealed that adopters of CSAT generate significantly higher crop revenues than non-adopters. This implies that CSAT adopters sell the majority of their marketable surplus and retain a minor share for household consumption. These findings suggest that farm-level sensitization programs could emphasize the need for farmers to strike a balance between agricultural investment and food security. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344323 |
| By: | Professor Mustafizur Rahman; Anika Tasnim Arpita; Tanbin Alam Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The recently announced Reciprocal TariffÂs (RTs) by US President Donald Trump have triggered a lot of uncertainties and anxieties worldwide, both in view of trade with the US and also from the perspectives of global trade and economic growth. For obvious reasons, Bangladesh has been no exception, particularly because US is one of Bangladesh’s key trade and economic partners. |
| Keywords: | Trump reciprocal tariffs, Bangladesh trade, US–Bangladesh relations, export impacts, global trade uncertainty, economic growth risk, external sector implications, FDI concerns |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:75 |
| By: | Truger, Achim |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Gesetzentwurf konkretisiert im Änderungsvorschlag für § 18 Abs. 3 der Thüringer Landeshaushaltsordnung die im Rahmen der Anwendung der Schuldenbremse zentrale Bestimmung der Konjunkturkomponente, die der Bereinigung des Haushalts von konjunkturellen Schwankungen dient. Zur Bestimmung der Auswirkungen einer von der Normallage abweichenden konjunkturellen Entwicklung soll die gesamtstaatliche Produktionslücke gemäß der maßgeblichen Projektion der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung der Bundesregierung bestimmt werden. Dieser Rückgriff auf das Bundesverfahren wird von vielen Ländern im Rahmen der landesspezifischen Umsetzung der Schuldenbremse verwendet (Scholz 2021). Die Besonderheit im vorgesehenen § 18 Abs. 3 besteht darin, dass das relevante Produktionspotenzial unter Berücksichtigung früherer Projektionen der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung der Bundesregierung über einen Zeitraum von vier Jahren ermittelt werden soll (vierjährige Glättung der Potenzialschätzung). Die vorliegende Stellungnahme bezieht sich ausschließlich auf diese vierjährige Glättung der Potenzialschätzung sowie ihre Einbettung im Kontext des § 18 der Thüringer Landeshaushaltsordnung, insbesondere der Absätze 4 bis 6. Dabei stützt sich die Stellungnahme neben der grundsätzlichen Literatur zur Potenzialschätzung auch auf die Diskussion anlässlich der Einführung einer zehnjährigen Glättung im Land Brandenburg (Breuer und Truger 2025; Truger (2025); Boysen-Hogrefe und Hoffmann 2025; Landtag Brandenburg 2025 sowie Iwers und Stampehl 2025) und das Kurzgutachten von Rietzler und Paetz (2025) im Auftrag des Thüringer Finanzministeriums. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsoex:331896 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | According to the recent unpublished domestic national risk assessment (NRA), 2 China faces relatively lower ML/TF threats from abroad with a higher risk of domestic criminal proceeds being transferred overseas. The update to the NRA concluded that the overall level of ML risk is medium and has remained the same (since 2017). Notably, there have been some changes in the major types of illicit proceeds-generating crimes, with tele and internet fraud becoming the most significant ML threat. The domestic understanding of risks including those related to corruption and domestic politically exposed persons (PEPs) may suffer from blind spots and could be further deepened. For example, given the dominant role of the state and state-owned-enterprises in the economy, more detailed analysis of corruption, as a predicate offence, would be worthwhile along with an assessment of the levels of politically exposed persons (PEPs) and the quality of related preventive measures (discussed further below). To improve the understanding of risk among government entities and the private sector responsible for reporting suspicious transactions, the publication of analysis from the NRA should be considered. |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/302 |
| By: | Patrick M. Kline |
| Abstract: | Economists often rely on estimates of linear fixed effects models developed by other teams of researchers. Assessing the uncertainty in these estimates can be challenging. I propose a form of sample splitting for network data that breaks two-way fixed effects estimates into statistically independent branches, each of which provides an unbiased estimate of the parameters of interest. These branches facilitate uncertainty quantification, moment estimation, and shrinkage. Algorithms are developed for efficiently extracting branches from large datasets. I illustrate these techniques using a benchmark dataset from Veneto, Italy that has been widely used to study firm wage effects. |
| JEL: | C01 J30 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34486 |
| By: | Michal Skara (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Ladislava Issever Grochova (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between household debt and economic output in the context of income inequality, emphasizing the role of fiscal redistribution through personal taxes and social transfers. Based on an unbalanced panel dataset of 36 countries covering the period 1980–2023, the study employs panel local projection (LP) methods to analyze the dynamic effects of household debt on GDP growth, assessing how this effect is influenced by the degree of income redistribution achieved through the tax system and transfers. While existing research shows that household debt may initially stimulate economic activity, it constrains consumption and exacerbates downturns in the medium run, especially in economies with high inequality. The results suggest that fiscal redistribution dampens the negative effects of household debt associated with inequality, with the strongest mitigating impact observed at the seventh horizon after a debt shock, when debt-service burdens peak. The findings underline the importance of an effective system of fiscal redistribution – encompassing both personal taxes and transfers – in reducing the macroeconomic costs of household indebtedness and contributing to the debate on sustainable growth and inequality reduction. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, direct taxes, GDP growth, household debt |
| JEL: | D14 D31 E21 E62 H24 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:108_2025 |
| By: | Meijer, Roy (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training); Dijksman, Sander (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training); Bakens, Jessie (ROA / Labour market and training, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research) |
| Abstract: | Dit document dient als achtergrondinformatie bij het rapport De arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep tot 2030 (Bakens et al., 2025) waarin de resultaten van het Project Onderwijs-Arbeidsmarkt (POA) staan beschreven. Hier wordt verder ingegaan op de gebruikte databronnen, definities, en de gebruikte prognosemethodiek. Voor een volledige beschrijving en onderbouwing van de prognosemethodiek, en uitgangspunten van het POA, kunnen naast dit document verschillende andere publicaties4 en referenties (zie bijlage A van De arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep tot 2030 (Bakens et al., 2025)) geraadpleegd worden. |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarot:2025004 |
| By: | Herzberg, Julika; Knetsch, Thomas A.; Popova, Dilyana; Schaller, Jannik; Schwind, Patrick; Weinand, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | We analyse potential mismeasurement of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) at the upper level of aggregation, focusing on two sources of measurement error: the choice of index formula (representativity component) and the reliability of weights (data vintage component). The representativity component captures the fact that a Laspeyres-type index such as the HICP suffers from a systematic over-estimation of inflation due to the disregard of changes in more recent consumption patterns. The data vintage component comprises potential mismeasurement arising from the annual updating of HICP weights based on preliminary national accounts data. With national accounts vintage data, we calculate bias and inaccuracy metrics in order to analyse mismeasurement at the upper level of aggregation in the HICPs for Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, as well as for the country group, over the period from 2012 to 2021. For the representativity component, the data availability allows an additional analysis of the period until 2024. Measured in terms of annual HICP rates, the total upper-level aggregation bias falls short of one-tenth of a percentage point. The representativity and the data vintage component are both found to contribute to overall bias in quite similar shares. We also find that the representativity component experienced a substantial revival during the recent high inflation period. |
| Keywords: | Inflation measurement, Representativity bias, Updating of weights, High inflation period |
| JEL: | E31 C43 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:331894 |
| By: | Patricio Cavalli; Maximiliano Ivickas Magallan |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo se propone conocer el modelo de negocios de la productora de contenidos de Claudio Destéfano para comprender con mayor detalle el funcionamiento de las comunidades o los ecosistemas emprendedores en base al estudio de caso de una de sus unidades: el Ristretto. La pregunta que motivó el análisis fue la siguiente: ¿por qué la construcción de un ecosistema beneficia el negocio de un empresario o el mundo empresarial? En esa indagación, se profundizará conceptualmente sobre la idea de “networking con propósito” que la empresa coloca en el centro de su storytelling. La hipótesis de trabajo es que esta idea le permitió a Claudio Destéfano construir, comunicar, transmitir y convencer a empresarios y actores relevantes del mundo de la política y el tercer sector que su ecosistema genera valor agregado para todos ellos. El trabajo es de tipo exploratorio e interpretativo y, para alcanzar el objetivo propuesto, la metodología fue de carácter cualitativa, basada en el análisis de material documental de la empresa, observación participante, entrevistas semiestructuradas al titular de la misma y testimonios de informantes claves. Con esta investigación, se espera realizar un aporte conceptual a la discusión sobre el mundo emprendedor y a la manera de interpretar el sentido que le dan los actores a su acción cuando desarrollan negocios y toman decisiones. |
| Keywords: | networking, ecosistemas, entrepreneurship, negocios, propósito. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:870 |
| By: | Maria Arakelyan; Tatiana Evdokimova |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the relatively limited literature on the impact of political uncertainty on international capital flows to emerging market economies. We incorporate elections as a proxy for political uncertainty into a standard push-pull framework for analyzing capital flows. Using quarterly data for a panel of 38 emerging market economies from 1990 to 2020, we show that periods surrounding elections are associated with a decline in gross private capital inflows. This adverse impact is larger and more persistent when uncertainty extends beyond the election period, for example in the context of uncertain policy priorities following incumbent’s loss. By contrast, higher levels of overall political stability appear to mitigate these adverse effects. We also find evidence that stronger institutions, as reflected in indicators such as regulatory quality and rule of law, help to mitigate the adverse effects of political uncertainty on capital flows. The results remain robust across a range of alternative specifications, including controls for standard economic drivers of capital flows, election characteristics, and model assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows; political cycles; uncertainty; emerging markets; push and pull factors |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/243 |
| By: | Xun (Grace) Gong; Ziqi Qiao; Randall Wright |
| Abstract: | This essay surveys the literature on middlemen—i.e., intermediation in exchange—reviewing, extending and consolidating key developments in the field. This is important because intermediated trade is common in reality but absent in standard general equilibrium theory. We focus on research using search theory. In various models, agents may act as middlemen when they are good at search, bargaining, recognizing quality, storing inventories, using credit, etc. The theory applies to markets for goods, inputs or assets. We discuss versions with indivisible or divisible goods, fixed or endogenous participation, stationary and dynamic equilibria, and some implications for efficiency and volatility. |
| JEL: | D0 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34477 |
| By: | de León, Adrian; Straw, Isabel |
| Abstract: | Healthcare services around the world are undergoing a rapid process of digitalisation that presents novel threats to healthcare workers and patients across humanitarian settings. This review evaluates the key mechanisms by which emerging digital technologies are reshaping humanitarian practice and posing new challenges to patients, practitioners and policy-makers in low-resource environments. First, we examine emergent physical and psychological harms stemming from digital technologies at the individual patient level, summarising the latest evidence on injuries from drone-induced trauma, multi-robotic systems (MRS) and electromagnetic (EM) weapons. Second, we discuss population-level risks in global health settings, detailing the clinical harms associated with hospital cyberattacks in hybrid warfare and the novel challenges of AI-enhanced technologies for non-profit agencies attempting to deliver care (e.g., misinformation and “Deepfakes”). Further, we illustrate the new vulnerabilities that emerge as humanitarian agencies transition to electronic and biometric databases, highlighting the associated privacy risks for asylum seekers and refugees. Drawing together the latest insights from frontline practitioners, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the United Nations (UN), we showcase specific technological threats affecting vulnerable patient groups, such as the deployment of GPS trackers and implants by sex trafficking groups, and the use of social media by modern slavery networks. This article introduces global health and humanitarian practitioners to essential digital concepts that are increasingly relevant to their work in the field, including Swarm Intelligence technologies, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), Large Language Models (LLMs), Cyberwar, Netwar and electromagnetic (EM) warfare. Framed through the lens of clinical care, we shine a light on the neglected intersection of humanitarian practice and digital technology, demonstrating that patients who are marginalised globally are often at greatest risk from technological harm. |
| Date: | 2025–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n25r6_v1 |
| By: | Andrés Erosa; Luisa Fuster; Gueorgui Kambourov; Richard Rogerson |
| Abstract: | Two robust empirical facts are that mean wages and cross-sectional wage dispersion both increase over the life cycle. We study how these two changes vary across occupations and document a strong positive correlation: occupations with high mean wage growth over the life cycle also exhibit greater increases in cross-sectional wage dispersion. We develop a novel dynamic Roy model that features both static and dynamic comparative advantage and show that it can account for the variation in life cycle wage distributions across high and low wage occupations. Dynamic comparative advantage reflects individual heterogeneity in occupation specific learning abilities and is the dominant force that shapes occupation choice in our model. We highlight several important implications of dynamic comparative advantage and show that our model captures the data better than a benchmark model that features persistent shocks. |
| JEL: | E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34481 |
| By: | Klaus Weyerstraß; Martin Ertl; Daniel Schmidtner; Adrian Wende; Hannes Zenz |
| Abstract: | Abstract: Die IHS-Studie zeigt, dass Österreichs Außenhandel weiterhin stark auf die Europäische Union (EU) ausgerichtet ist – rund zwei Drittel der Warenströme entfallen auf EU-Partner, vor allem Deutschland. Gleichzeitig gewinnen Drittstaaten deutlich an Bedeutung: Ihr Anteil am Handel wächst stetig, besonders mit den USA, China und der Schweiz. Diese Märkte bieten hohes Wachstumspotenzial, sind aber mit größeren Risiken verbunden – etwa Zöllen, Wechselkursvolatilität und strategischen Abhängigkeiten bei Rohstoffen, insbesondere gegenüber China. Drittlandsexporte konzentrieren sich auf Maschinen, pharmazeutische Produkte und Fahrzeugteile. Unternehmen, die auf Drittmärkten aktiv sind, zeichnen sich durch höhere Produktivität, Beschäftigung und Innovationskraft aus. Sie tragen wesentlich zur Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung in Österreich bei: Rund ein Drittel der Arbeitsplätze hängt direkt von der Auslandsnachfrage ab, davon fast die Hälfte von Drittstaaten. Handelspolitische Öffnung und Freihandelsabkommen gelten daher als zentrale Hebel, um Österreichs Wettbewerbsfähigkeit global zu abzusichern. |
| Keywords: | international trade, Austrian Foreign Trade, exports |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:ecbook:y:2025:m:11:i:04 |
| By: | Siddig, Khalid; Nigus, Halefom Yigzaw; Abushama, Hala; Rakhy, Tarig |
| Abstract: | Sudan faces significant challenges due to prolonged conflicts, political instability, and economic disruptions. The ongoing conflict is disrupting market systems, exacerbating price volatility, and limiting the availability of essential commodities. Supply chain disruptions, insecurity, and infrastructure damage often restrict market access and contribute to rising food and fuel costs. In conflict-affected areas, transportation and security challenges intensify price disparities, making staple foods and key agricultural inputs increasingly unaffordable, especially for vulnerable populations. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is conducting a comprehensive market monitoring initiative across Sudan’s 18 states, tracking the prices and assessing the availability and quality of essential commodities, observing changes in exchange rates, and gathering qualitative insights from market actors. This report provides an overview of market trends in Sudan during February 2025. It will be updated monthly. |
| Keywords: | commodities; prices; market economies; shock; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ssspwp:174297 |
| By: | Yadav, Nishi |
| Abstract: | Sustainability is threatened by the changing climate, especially in the agricultural sector. The consequences of this changing climate can have strong repercussions on food security by affecting productivity through hazards like droughts and floods. The study employs a climate risk assessment, considering hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, aligning with SDG 13's goals. The study creates a climate risk index for 26 major states of India which correspond to different agro climatic zones. The study also explores the relationship between climate risk and rice productivity in Indian states using a panel data regression analysis. The results show that states such as Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu are most susceptible to climate risks. Whereas states such as Bihar, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand are least susceptible to climate risk. The regression analysis results show a negative relationship between climate risk and rice yield, indicating that an increase in climate risk can severely affect rice productivity and India’s food security. Since India is the second largest exporter of rice, climate risk can have global consequences. The results indicate immediate region-specific adaptation measures and advocate for sustainable mitigation practices. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344338 |
| By: | Roudari, Soheil |
| Abstract: | One of the primary objectives of investors is to determine the optimal asset weights and the appropriate risk‑hedging strategies considering the holding period of each asset. Accordingly, this study examines and determines the optimal investment portfolio and the dynamic risk‑hedging relationships among currency, gold coin, housing, and stock markets over the period March 2006 to February 2023, employing a Time‑Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP‑VAR) model. The results indicate that stock and currency markets act as net transmitters, while gold coin and housing markets are net receivers of volatility within the examined network. The total connectedness index reveals that during periods of sanctions and the COVID‑19 pandemic, the interdependence among these markets intensified, thereby limiting diversification opportunities within the investment portfolio. Furthermore, cumulative returns under the Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP) approach exceed those obtained under the Minimum Connectedness Portfolio (MCOP) framework. Based on the findings, the optimal combination involves holding stocks in the short run and housing in the long run. Out of one unit of investment under normal, bearish, and bullish market conditions, 0.97, 0.96, and 0.98 units, respectively, should be allocated to this combination. The study concludes that a static view of asset behavior is not appropriate for portfolio optimization. Instead, risk‑hedging and optimal asset weighting must be considered dynamically, reflecting economic, political, and health‑related conditions. |
| Keywords: | Hedging effectiveness, time‑varying optimal weights, asset markets |
| JEL: | G11 G17 G32 |
| Date: | 2024–08–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126952 |
| By: | Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Oliver Reiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Neue Wege für die EU-Türkei-Wirtschaftsbeziehungen – Zollunion im Wandel? This publication is available in German language only. For a brief English summary see further below. Dieser Bericht analysiert die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen der EU-Türkei-Zollunion und deren geopolitische Implikationen. Während das Handelsvolumen seit 1996 gestiegen ist, haben die EU und Österreich als Handelspartner an relativer Bedeutung verloren, insbesondere zugunsten Russlands und Chinas. Auch innerhalb Europas zeigen sich Verschiebungen Der Handel verlagert sich zunehmend zugunsten osteuropäischer Mitgliedstaaten, während die Beziehungen zu traditionellen westeuropäischen Partnern, insbesondere den großen Volkswirtschaften, tendenziell rückläufig sind. Spanien bildet eine Ausnahme, wo sich das Handelsvolumen aufgrund enger politischer und wirtschaftlicher Beziehungen deutlich erhöhte. Zwar hat die Zollunion den Handel insgesamt deutlich gefördert, doch ihr enger Umfang sowie insbesondere bestehende nichttarifäre Handelshemmnisse schränken das Exportpotenzial für die Mehrheit der EU-Mitgliedstaaten weiterhin ein. Neue US-Zölle und der eskalierende transatlantische Handelskonflikt erschweren zusätzlich die bilateralen Handelsbeziehungen zwischen der EU und der Türkei. Gleichzeitig öffnen sie jedoch Spielräume für eine Modernisierung. Aber die Zollunion bleibt politisch umstritten Im Laufe der Jahre haben politische Differenzen, innenpolitische Turbulenzen in der Türkei sowie der daraus resultierende stagnierende EU-Beitrittsprozess das bilaterale Verhältnis zunehmend belastet. Trotz ihrer wachsenden geopolitischen Bedeutung gilt die Türkei weiterhin als instabile Partnerin Die Verhaftung des Istanbuler Bürgermeisters Ekrem İmamoğlu und die Repressionen gegen die größte Oppositionspartei CHP haben das Vertrauen europäischer Partner weiter geschwächt, mit negativen Folgen nicht nur für die politischen Beziehungen, sondern auch für das Vertrauen von Investor innen. In vier Szenarien untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen möglicher Handelsentwicklungen auf Wohlfahrt und Handelsströme, insbesondere für die EU und die Türkei. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine tiefgreifende Modernisierung der Zollunion das Handelsvolumen zwischen der Türkei und der EU deutlich erhöhen und spürbare Wohlfahrtsgewinne für die Türkei erzielen, die negativen Effekte eines Handelskonflikts mit den USA für die EU aber nur sehr gering abmildern könnte. New paths for EU-Turkey economic relations – Custom Union in transition? This report analyses economic developments since the introduction of the EU–Turkey Customs Union and examines the geopolitical implications of its modernisation. While EU–Turkey trade has grown since 1996, the EU and Austria have lost market share in Turkey’s overall trade, particularly to Russia and China. Shifts are also visible within Europe trade is increasingly tilting toward Eastern European member states, while ties with traditional Western partners, especially the large economies, are gradually weakening. Spain is an exception, with trade volume increasing significantly due to its close political and economic ties with Turkey. Although the customs union has significantly promoted trade overall, its narrow scope and, in particular, existing non-tariff trade barriers continue to limit the export potential for the majority of EU member states. New US tariffs and the escalating transatlantic trade dispute are further complicating EU-Turkey trade relations. At the same time, the EU continues to conclude new FTAs, which intensifies the asymmetry of the customs union for Turkey and reinforces the need for modernisation. Yet the customs union remains politically contentious within the EU long-standing political disagreements, domestic turbulence in Turkey, and the stalled accession process have increasingly strained bilateral relations. Despite its growing geopolitical importance and the need to modernise the customs union, Turkey continues to be seen as an unstable partner. The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the crackdown on the main opposition party, the CHP, have further eroded the confidence of European partners, harming political relations as well as investor sentiment. In four scenarios, we assess how different modernisation options for the customs union would affect welfare and trade flows for the EU and Turkey. The results show that a comprehensive upgrade of the customs union could substantially increase EU-Turkey trade and deliver clear welfare gains for Turkey, but would only marginally cushion the EU from the negative effects of a trade conflict with the United States. |
| Keywords: | Zollunion, EU-Türkei-Beziehungen, berechenbares allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F50 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:32 |
| By: | Wassie, Mengistu Alamneh; Kornher, Lukas; Zaki, Chahir |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the trade impacts of trade facilitation (TF) and computes ad valorem tariff equivalents of trade facilitation for Africa. Its contribution is threefold. First, a structural gravity model is used to estimate the impact of TF on trade at a disaggregated level. Second, we validate our results by using different indices that measure TF (time to trade, logistic performance index, and trade-enabling index). Third, in a partial equilibrium framework, it simulates the impact of TF in African countries. Our findings indicate that time to trade has a strong and negative impact on trade, whereas logistics performance and the trade-enabling index positively and significantly impact trade. The analysis suggests that African countries benefit most from TF improvements, particularly those with long delays and weak infrastructural and logistics performance. We find that a one-day custom delay has a 0.9% tariff equivalent. At the product level, the agriculture, food, and some manufacturing sectors, which are the leading African imports, benefit the most from implementing TF. In contrast, mining-related products, which are the major export components of Africa, benefit the least. An ambitious and realistic TF implementation of reducing trade delay by half enhances Africa’s exports and imports by 30.2% and 12.7 % respectively. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344296 |
| By: | Hafsa Hina (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | The exchange rate is a crucial indicator of a nations performance in the external sector and influences key macroeconomic variables. In theory, exchange rates should be determined by market forces and reflect economic fundamentals; however, developing economies such as Pakistan often experience significant deviations due to structural weaknesses and policy interventions. This paper reviews the literature on the exchange rate in Pakistan, classifying and summarising the findings on nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates, real effective exchange rates, and foreign exchange market pressures. This review provides a comprehensive understanding of exchange rate policy in Pakistan and its economic implications. The paper concludes by identifying gaps in current research and suggesting areas of future study to address the complexities of exchange rate management in developing economies. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:3 |
| By: | Owen Gabourys; Farrukh Suvankulov; Mathieu Utting |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates and extends the work of Altig et al. (2022) on firms’ subjective sales growth expectations using Canadian survey data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Leaders’ Pulse. We examine the formation, uncertainty and predictive validity of firm-level sales growth forecasts using subjective probability distributions from business leaders at a one-year-ahead horizon. The replication work performed here confirms several findings from Altig et al. (2022), including that expected sales growth predicts realized sales growth, subjective uncertainty predicts forecast errors and firms frequently revise their expectations, usually by small amounts. We also find that subjective uncertainty predicts the magnitude of forecast revisions and follows a V-shaped relationship with past sales growth. We extend the original analysis by further demonstrating that firms with weaker recent performance assign greater weight to future weak growth scenarios, and subsequently that these firms are more likely to underperform, suggesting expectations are grounded in real conditions. The results presented in this paper reinforce the value of firm-level survey data for macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis and help validate the Business Leaders’ Pulse as a reliable source of firm-level expectations data. |
| Keywords: | Firm dynamics Monetary policy and uncertainty |
| JEL: | C8 C83 D D2 D22 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:25-15 |
| By: | Schreiner, Nicolas (University of Basel); Stutzer, Alois (University of Basel) |
| Abstract: | We study how citizens’ right to directly decide on policies through popular initiatives affects the attractiveness of extreme candidates in representative elections. In our theoretical framework, single prominent policy issues on which individual voters hold extreme views get a large weight in their assessment of candidates, thereby favoring ideologically extreme ones. If citizens can decide the controversial policy issues separately on the ballot, this decouples the issues from legislative politics and moderate candidates become relatively more attractive to voters. We apply our theory to U.S. state legislative elections and find that ideologically extreme candidates receive significantly lower voter support in initiative than in non-initiative states. This holds in particular for states with low qualification requirements for initiatives. In concurrent elections for the U.S. House we do not observe this difference in the electoral success of extreme candidates between initiative and non-initiative states. The effect seems partly mediated by lower campaign donations to extreme candidates. |
| Keywords: | moderating selection effect, initiative right, extremist ideology, direct democracy, campaign donations, polarization, political institutions, voting |
| JEL: | D02 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18266 |
| By: | Fisher, Ian; Maredia, Mywish K.; Tschirley, David |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the pressing policy issue of food access and availability in low-income urban settings, particularly in the context of the nutrition transition, urbanization, and evolving food systems. By regressing food expenditure data against proximity-to-outlet measures for various outlet types, the study focuses on estimating distance elasticities—quantifying the responsiveness of household food shopping expenditure to variations in distances to different food outlets. The key finding underscores the significance of household location characteristics over average distance to outlets in predicting the healthiness of food purchases. The research further identifies variations in distance elasticities based on factors such as the main shopper's age, household poverty probability, and location. This study introduces a novel application of distance elasticity, paving the way for future investigations into food environment metrics within urban and peri-urban settings of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The insights gained aim to enhance the understanding of factors influencing food shopping behavior and guide strategies for promoting healthier food options through increased expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344303 |
| By: | Sukanya Kudva; Anil Aswani |
| Abstract: | We study the problem of auction design in the presence of bidder collusion. Specifically, we consider a multi-unit auction of identical items with single-minded bidders, where a subset of bidders may collude by coordinating bids and transferring payments and items among themselves. While the classical Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanism achieves efficient and truthful outcomes, it is highly vulnerable to collusion. In contrast, fully collusion-proof mechanisms are limited to posted-price formats, which fail to guarantee even approximate efficiency. This paper aims to bridge this gap by designing auctions that achieve good welfare and revenue guarantees even when some bidders collude. We first characterize the strategic behavior of colluding bidders under VCG and prove that such bidders optimally bid shade: they never overbid or take additional items, but instead reduce the auction price. This characterization enables a Bulow-Klemperer type result: adding colluding bidders can only improve welfare and revenue relative to running VCG on the non-colluding group alone. We then propose a Hybrid VCG (H-VCG) mechanism that combines VCG applied to non-colluding bidders with a posted-price mechanism for colluding bidders, assuming access to a black-box collusion detection algorithm. We show that H-VCG is ex-post dominant-strategy incentive compatible (DSIC) and derive probabilistic guarantees on expected welfare and revenue under both known and unknown valuation distributions. Numerical experiments across several distributions demonstrate that H-VCG consistently outperforms VCG restricted to non-colluding bidders and approaches the performance of the ideal VCG mechanism assuming universal truthfulness. Our results provide a principled framework for incorporating collusion detection into mechanism design, offering a step toward collusion-resistant auctions. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.12456 |
| By: | Precious A. Brenni |
| Abstract: | The rapid advancement of technology, including generative AI, presents new challenges to active student involvement in the learning process. This study investigates whether playful learning, using LEGO® as a tool, enhances student engagement in Real Estate Finance, an undergraduate module at Durham University. Data comes from an anonymous student survey, following the completion of the workshop-based playful learning activities. Initial findings indicate that playful learning is a fun but not frivolous pedagogic approach, fostering individual involvement and active collaboration. The results also show no significant differences in satisfaction levels across gender and student status, highlighting the potential of playful learning to create more inclusive study spaces. Further, the findings suggest that playful learning and generative AI can be effectively combined to align with the fast-evolving educational landscape. Overall, this study hints at the need to go beyond conventional teaching methods and adopt approaches that support more engaging and inclusive learning experiences in (real estate) education. |
| Keywords: | Engagement; Learn; LEGO®; Play |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_205 |
| By: | Matteo Gamalerio (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Federico Trombetta (DISEIS, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the interplay between politics and firms influences the profil·les of political candidates and their policy decisions. Specifically, we analyze the effects of an anti-revolving door law, which impose a mandatory “cooling-off” period before former politicians can take significant positions in the bureaucracy or in state-owned enterprises. We develop a political agency model where politicians can access “politically connected outside options” (PCOs), and examine how the reduction in the expected value of these PCOs impacts candidate selection and policymaking. Our findings suggest that a decline in the value of PCOs disproportionately affects individuals with lower human capital, thereby increasing the proportion of high human capital candidates. Simultaneously, this shift heightens the likelihood that low human capital politicians will pander toward the voters, even when such policies are suboptimal. We test those predictions using data from Italian municipalities. Leveraging a population threshold that triggers the implementation of anti-revolving door policies, we employ a difference-in-discontinuity approach. Our results show that the cooling-off period raises the average education levels of candidates and elected mayors. Additionally, we find that the reform reduces the probability that low human capital mayors adopt electorally costly policies. |
| Keywords: | Revolving doors, selection of politicians, policymaking, difference-indiscontinuity |
| JEL: | D72 D73 H75 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-03 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The institutional setup for macroprudential policy needs to be improved to support effective responses to systemic risks. Unchanged since the 2019 FSAP, the SNB oversees macroprudential matters and makes Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB) proposals but lacks voting power on CCyB decisions. Neither the SNB nor FINMA, nor any existing inter-agency committee, hold a formal mandate to recommend adjustments to the Swiss macroprudential toolkit when current tools prove inadequate for addressing systemic risks, leading to an inaction bias. Swiss authorities should establish a dedicated macroprudential committee, chaired by the SNB, to discuss and jointly decide on policies. Such committee could improve macroprudential communication, enhance public accountability, mitigate inaction risks, and advise relevant agencies on the toolkit's adequacy and necessary changes. |
| Date: | 2025–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/298 |
| By: | Gianluca Mattarocci; Lucia Gibilaro |
| Abstract: | The hotel industry is significantly heterogeneous, and each brand and location may have different performances based on the tourism demand and the supply of similar destinations for the world's market. International crises have an impact on the tourism demand and on the performance of hospitality companies, but the effect is different on the basis of the type of crisis analysis (financial, health, etc...). After the pandemic, shareholders are more worried about the risk of investing in corporations that enter the hospitality industry, even if the probability of similar events in the near future is remote. The paper focuses on the shareholders’ point of view and it evaluates the risk of an investment strategy in hotel-listed companies by considering companies operating in different areas and sectors (business, leisure, etc...) for the time horizon 2007-2023. Results highlight differences in the risk exposure on the basis of the type of hotel selected and point out the benefits related to a diversification strategy for reducing the risk of losses, especially in a crisis scenario. |
| Keywords: | Diversification; Hospitality; Portfolio; Risk |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_66 |
| By: | Dam, Adrita; Chatterjee, Soumitra; Kumar, Pramod |
| Abstract: | In India large proportion of population (54.6%) depends on agriculture for their livelihood contributing 17.4% of the country’s Gross Value Added (GVA). The study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the long-term performance of the Rice-Wheat cropping system in the Indo-Gangetic plains of India over five decades (1970-71 to 2019-20). Assessing Total Factor productivity (TFP) across major states, the study reveals a troubling stagnation and decline in TFP for Rice, Wheat and the combined cropping system. Factors such as rising input costs, changing labour dynamics, ground water depletion and state-specific practices significantly impact productivity. Punjab benefits from progressive labour and mechanization, while Haryana faces declining productivity due to groundwater depletion. Uttar Pradesh realizes positive impacts from fertilizer use, while Bihar and west Bengal’s reliance on traditional practices hampers productivity. Socio-economic factors like Net National Income and rural electrification affect TFP, highlighting complex influences on agricultural productivity. The study recommends institutional and structural changes, suggesting privatization through contract farming to enhance efficiency and knowledge among cultivators. Addressing these challenges is crucial for revitalizing agricultural productivity in the region, demanding a multifaceted approach encompassing technological innovation, sustainable practices and inclusive policy interventions. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344317 |
| By: | Grazyna Wiejak-Roy |
| Abstract: | Real estate valuation, despite using well defined methods and techniques, is often referred to as arts. The valuers use specific property and market characteristics and valuation is a mere result of the quantification of the impact of such characteristics. While the real estate market transparency is improving with the availability of reliable data (JLL, 2024; Ache et al., 2024), the current mainstream standards and guidelines on the quality of inputs used for valuation are still inconsistent creating confusion around how to deal with the lack or poor quality of market data. This research provides a comprehensive review of key resources available to valuers that provide details on the degrees of reliance on various types of inputs. These resources include standards and guidelines published by the International Valuation Standards Council, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, The European Group of Valuer’s Associations, the International Accounting Standards Board and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority. The research identifies gaps and inconsistencies across the various resources and provides recommendations on how they could be addressed to minimise ambiguities and ensure consistency in real estate valuation. |
| Keywords: | hierarchy of evidence; inputs; Standards; Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_9 |
| By: | Hyeyoon Jung; Jaehoon (Kyle) Jung |
| Abstract: | We study the economics of homeowners’ property insurance by examining how contract design balances the trade-off between incentive alignment and risk sharing. Using granular contract-level property insurance data merged with property-level disaster risk for millions of U.S. households, we develop and structurally estimate a model in which insurers optimally determine contract terms given property risk and household risk preferences. The estimates provide, to our knowledge, the first large-scale contract-level structural measures of risk aversion, risk premia, and the cost of moral hazard, allowing us to quantify how disaster risk is allocated between insurers and households. We find that the cost of moral hazard is small, yet the very mechanism used to mitigate it substantially increases households’ exposure to disaster risk: contract design leaves policyholders exposed to roughly 29 percent of total expected losses. This residual exposure is most pronounced for low-FICO households and for properties with the greatest tail risk. Counterfactuals indicate that mandating full insurance would lead to substantial market exit, increasing household vulnerability. We further show that insurers’ financial constraints are systematically correlated with the riskiness of underwritten properties and with household characteristics. |
| Keywords: | insurance; financial constraints; household finance; moral hazard; contracting |
| JEL: | C6 D8 G1 G2 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:102161 |
| By: | Fiorella De Fiore; Marco Jacopo Lombardi; Giacomo Mangiante |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the pass-through of input price shocks to firms' expectations and pricing decisions using firm-level data from the Bank of Italy's Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations. We find a strong and asymmetric pass-through: positive input price shocks significantly raise firms' price expectations, realised prices and short-term inflation expectations, while negative shocks have little impact. The pass-through varies systematically with firm characteristics: it is higher for upstream firms and for firms facing greater uncertainty, adjusting prices more frequently, or operating with thinner profit margins. Macroeconomic conditions also matter: firms' expectations respond more strongly to business-specific signals in periods of low inflation and to aggregate signals in periods of high inflation. Finally, we show that providing firms with information about current inflation dampens the pass-through to inflation expectations, underscoring the importance of central bank communication. |
| Keywords: | pass-through, heterogeneous firm expectations, survey data, inflation |
| JEL: | D22 D84 E31 E50 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1305 |
| By: | Peter Reusens; Tijmen van Kempen; Joren Vandenbergh; Frank Vastmans; Sven Damen |
| Abstract: | This article analyses the impact of the Flemish energy renovation obligation for homebuyers on house prices. This policy was introduced in 2023 and obliges buyers of the most energy-inefficient homes to renovate within five years from purchasing the property in order to obtain at least a class D label. By applying a difference-in-differences technique and leveraging a unique dataset of dwelling characteristics, we find that energy-inefficient houses in the Flemish Region became about 2% cheaper as a result of this renovation obligation, both relative to similar houses in the Walloon Region and to those with a class D energy label in the Flemish Region. The reasons for this only limited effect are that a majority of buyers of energy-inefficient houses were renovating their properties to at least a class D level in any case and that this renovation cost seems to already have been largely factored into the price. As the Flemish Region is the only region in the world to have introduced an energy renovation obligation for homebuyers, our findings may be of interest to the many other countries that are considering a similar policy. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; Energy renovation obligation; House Prices; Minimum energy performance standards |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_152 |
| By: | Fellmann Thomas (European Commission - JRC); Tassinari Gianmaria (European Commission - JRC); Lasarte Lopez Jesus (European Commission - JRC); Rey Vicario Dolores (European Commission - JRC); Beber Caetano (European Commission - JRC); Barbosa Ana Luisa (European Commission - JRC); De Jong Beyhan (European Commission - JRC); Ferrari Emanuele (European Commission - JRC); Gocht Alexander; Isbasoiu Ancuta; Klinnert Ana (European Commission - JRC); Kremmydas Dimitrios; M'barek Robert (European Commission - JRC); Philippidis George; Rokicki Bartlomiej (European Commission - JRC); Tillie Pascal (European Commission - JRC); Weiss Franz (European Commission - JRC); Genovese Giampiero (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "The Scenar 2040 study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of two hypothetical scenarios related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the EU agricultural sector and its broader environment. The baseline (reference scenario) is calibrated to the 2023 EU Agricultural Outlook, and the current national CAP Strategic Plans serve as starting point for the shifts in the policy scenarios. In the first scenario support is directed towards CAP measures enhancing productivity and competitiveness, whereas the second scenario shifts support towards more environmental and climate-focused interventions. The study also includes a counterfactual NoCAP scenario, simulating the removal of the entire CAP framework. The study aims to contribute to policy discussions on the future of the CAP by providing quantitative insights into the general implications of alternative CAP trajectories.The scenario results underscore the CAP’s essential role for the EU’s agricultural sector and its broader socio-economic and environmental interlinkages across territories. The results indicate that the removal of the CAP framework would have considerable heterogeneous economic, environmental, and social impacts across the EU. The two alternative CAP scenarios reveal contrasted outcomes aligned with their respective narratives. The results highlight the CAP’s critical role, the complexity involved in balancing competing objectives, and confirm market fundamentals as primary drivers of production, although policy can significantly modulate outcomes." |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc142503 |
| By: | Kartik B. Athreya |
| Abstract: | In-person keynote presentation for the 62nd Annual Arizona State University/PNC Bank Economic Forecast Luncheon, delivered by Kartik Athreya, Director of Research and Head of the Research and Statistics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. |
| Keywords: | US economy; economic outlook; economic policy; monetary policy; policy change; artificial intelligence (AI) |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:102155 |
| By: | Andrei Zeleneev; Weisheng Zhang |
| Abstract: | Interactive fixed effects are routinely controlled for in linear panel models. While an analogous fixed effects (FE) estimator for nonlinear models has been available in the literature (Chen, Fernandez-Val and Weidner, 2021), it sees much more limited use in applied research because its implementation involves solving a high-dimensional non-convex problem. In this paper, we complement the theoretical analysis of Chen, Fernandez-Val and Weidner (2021) by providing a new computationally efficient estimator that is asymptotically equivalent to their estimator. Unlike the previously proposed FE estimator, our estimator avoids solving a high-dimensional optimization problem and can be feasibly computed in large nonlinear panels. Our proposed method involves two steps. In the first step, we convexify the optimization problem using nuclear norm regularization (NNR) and obtain preliminary NNR estimators of the parameters, including the fixed effects. Then, we find the global solution of the original optimization problem using a standard gradient descent method initialized at these preliminary estimates. Thus, in practice, one can simply combine our computationally efficient estimator with the inferential theory provided in Chen, Fernandez-Val and Weidner (2021) to construct confidence intervals and perform hypothesis testing. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.15427 |
| By: | Thomas Bauduin; Nathalie Gypens; Alberto A.V. Borges |
| Abstract: | Sub-daily variations might significantly impact the estimates of GHG emissions from lakes and ponds. The objectives of this study are (i) to quantify sub-daily variations of the emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O from two urban ponds (Silex and Pêcheries) in the city of Brussels, (ii) to quantify if the sub-daily variations of GHG emissions were significant compared to their seasonal variations and to inter-pond variations among 20 other ponds in the city of Brussels. The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), CH4 concentration, and N2O saturation level (%N2O) were measured hourly from dawn to dusk in the Pêcheries turbid-water pond and in the Silex clear-water pond during the four seasons in 2023–2024. pCO2 followed the day-night cycle of photosynthesis in spring and summer but was more erratic in winter and fall. The variations of CH4 concentration and %N2O were on most occasions erratic and difficult to attribute systematically to specific biogeochemical processes. The sub-daily variations of computed GHG emissions were mostly driven by variability in wind speed that usually peaked around mid-day. The comparison with previously acquired seasonal and inter-pond data (n = 22) showed that sub-daily variations of GHG fluxes were lower than seasonal variations, which were in turn lower than inter-pond variations. Consequently, to design sampling strategies to reduce the uncertainty on the estimate of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions a priority should be given to describe inter-system variability, followed by seasonal variability, and lastly sub-daily variability, in the context of the environmental management of inland waters, including urban ponds. |
| Keywords: | Brussels; Carbon dioxide; Methane; Nitrous oxide; Urban ecology; Urban ponds; δ13C-CH4 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/387628 |
| By: | Mgomezulu, Wisdom Richard; Machila, Kennedy; Edriss, Abdi-Khalil; Pangapanga-Phiri, Innocent |
| Abstract: | Different scholars have modelled the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) with a goal of improving farmer’s adaptive capacity to climate change. Nonetheless, through the conventional way of defining adoption decisions as one-time survey decisions, many scholars have failed to understand inconsistencies in adoption decisions and dis-adoption of such practices. Through a survey of 2100 maize farming households, the current study employed multivariate probit models to understand and compare one-time survey season adoption decisions and sustained (consistent) adoption decisions. The study notes that dis-adoption rates of SAPs range from 20 to 27 percent. As such, the determinants of dis-adoption were estimated to build a case for going beyond one-time adoption survey decisions. Furthermore, the study employed a Cox Proportional hazard model to understand the relative risk to adoption of Sustainable Agricultural Practices over time. The findings reveal the need for a modelling paradigm shift in understanding adoption decisions for sustainable benefits. Lastly, the findings reveal the need for intensifying knowledge and information dissemination on SAPs through field demonstrations, extension visits, trainings and radio programs in order to reduce dis-adoption and ensure sustained adoption. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344289 |
| By: | Meryem Gökten; Richard Grieveson; Oliver Reiter |
| Abstract: | Abstract:Dieser Bericht analysiert die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen der EU-Türkei-Zollunion und deren geopolitische Implikationen. Während das Handelsvolumen seit 1996 gestiegen ist, haben die EU und Österreich als Handelspartner an relativer Bedeutung verloren, insbesondere zugunsten Russlands und Chinas. Auch innerhalb Europas zeigen sich Verschiebungen: Der Handel verlagert sich zunehmend zugunsten osteuropäischer Mitgliedstaaten, während die Beziehungen zu traditionellen westeuropäischen Partnern, insbesondere den großen Volkswirtschaften, tendenziell rückläufig sind. Spanien bildet eine Ausnahme, wo sich das Handelsvolumen aufgrund enger politischer und wirtschaftlicher Beziehungen deutlich erhöhte. Zwar hat die Zollunion den Handel insgesamt deutlich gefördert, doch ihr enger Umfang sowie insbesondere bestehende nichttarifäre Handelshemmnisse schränken das Exportpotenzial für die Mehrheit der EU-Mitgliedstaaten weiterhin ein. Neue US-Zölle und der eskalierende transatlantische Handelskonflikt erschweren zusätzlich die bilateralen Handelsbeziehungen zwischen der EU und der Türkei. Gleichzeitig öffnen sie jedoch Spielräume für eine Modernisierung. Aber die Zollunion bleibt politisch umstritten: Im Laufe der Jahre haben politische Differenzen, innenpolitische Turbulenzen in der Türkei sowie der daraus resultierende stagnierende EU-Beitrittsprozess das bilaterale Verhältnis zunehmend belastet. Trotz ihrer wachsenden geopolitischen Bedeutung gilt die Türkei weiterhin als instabile Partnerin: Die Verhaftung des Istanbuler Bürgermeisters Ekrem İmamoğlu und die Repressionen gegen die größte Oppositionspartei CHP haben das Vertrauen europäischer Partner weiter geschwächt, mit negativen Folgen nicht nur für die politischen Beziehungen, sondern auch für das Vertrauen von Investor:innen. In vier Szenarien untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen möglicher Handelsentwicklungen auf Wohlfahrt und Handelsströme, insbesondere für die EU und die Türkei. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine tiefgreifende Modernisierung der Zollunion das Handelsvolumen zwischen der Türkei und der EU deutlich erhöhen und spürbare Wohlfahrtsgewinne für die Türkei erzielen, die negativen Effekte eines Handelskonflikts mit den USA für die EU aber nur sehr gering abmildern könnte. |
| Keywords: | Zollunion, EU-Türkei-Beziehungen, berechenbares allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell |
| JEL: | F14 F13 F50 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:ecbook:y:2025:m:11:i:05 |
| By: | Frank, Stefan; Dettmann, Ullrich; Piayda, Arndt; Seidel, Ronny; Amiri, Elaheh; Bamberger, Saskia; Heidkamp, Arne; Heller, Sebastian; Holzträger, Sylvia; Kuwert, Malina; Lakeberg, Silvana; Laqua, Sharon; Minke, Merten; Nagel, Stefan; Oehmke, Willi; Schemschat, Bernd; Simon, Carolin; Wittnebel, Mareille; Wywias, Holger; Tiemeyer, Bärbel |
| Abstract: | Moorböden (vereinfacht für Moor- und weitere organische Böden) sind durch einen hohen und vulnerablen Vorrat an organischem Kohlenstoff (C org) gekennzeichnet. Änderungen des Corg-Vorrats sowie Emissionen der weiteren Treibhausgase (THG) Methan und Lachgas müssen im Rahmen der jährlichen Emissionsberichterstattung berichtet und angerechnet werden. Zur Berechnung der THG-Emissionen müssen deren Steuergrößen und die Verteilung der Moorböden in Deutschland bekannt sein. Das Bundesministerium für Landwirtschaft, Ernährung und Heimat (BMLEH) hat das Thünen-Institut mit dem Aufbau eines deutschlandweiten Moorbodenmonitorings beauftragt, wobei das Monitoring im Offenland durch das Thünen-Institut für Agrarklimaschutz und das Monitoring im Wald durch das Thünen-Institut für Waldökosysteme durchgeführt wird. Ziele des Moorbodenmonitorings sind die Einrichtung eines repräsentativen Monitoring-Netzwerks für alle landesweit vorkommenden Landnutzungen sowie für Flächen mit THG-Minderungsmaßnahmen. Darüber hinaus sollen die Voraussetzungen für eine langfristige Bewertung der Klimawirksamkeit geschaffen und die relevanten Steuergrößen erfasst werden. Ein weiteres Ziel ist die Weiterentwicklung der am Thünen-Institut bestehenden Regionalisierungsansätze und die Integration dieser in die Emissionsberichterstattung. Das Moorbodenmonitoring im Offenland beruht auf einem clusterbasierten Ansatz, d.h. die Monitoringflächen verteilen sich auf 45 Cluster, die typische Charakteristika der Moorböden abbilden sollen. Die Monitoringflächen werden dabei nach der Bodenkategorie, der Landnutzung sowie der Hydrologie in zwei bis drei Ebenen stratifiziert. Langfristig soll das Monitoring-Netzwerk 150 Monitoringflächen umfassen. Bisher wurden 118 Monitoringflächen mit Unterstützung der Flächeneigentümer*innen und Flächenbewirtschafter*innen eingerichtet. Alle Arbeiten auf den Monitoringflächen wurden nach einheitlichen und veröffentlichten Methoden in den Bereichen Boden, Hydrologie, Vegetation und Geländehöhen durchgeführt. Über Fragebögen und Schlagkarteien erfolgte zusätzlich eine Abfrage wesentlicher Managementinformationen. [...] |
| Abstract: | Peat soils, encompassing peat and other organic soils, store large and vulnerable amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). Changes in these SOC stocks must be reported annually within greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. Accurate national reporting and accounting requires knowledge of both the magnitude of stock changes and the controlling factors, as well as the distribution of peat soils across Germany. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Regional Identity (BMLEH) tasked the Thünen Institute to establishing a nationwide peat soil monitoring program. Monitoring in open landscapes is conducted by the Thünen Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture, while forest monitoring is handled by the Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems. The program aims to establish a representative monitoring network that captures the national distribution of land use on peat soils and areas with GHG mitigation measures. In addition, the program aims to create the basis for a long-term assessment of climate effects and to capture the relevant driving factors. Another objective is to further develop the regionalization approaches already established at the Thünen Institute and integrate them into emission reporting. The monitoring network is based on a cluster approach, i.e., the monitoring sites are distributed in 45 cluster representing characteristic peatland areas. The monitoring sites are stratified according to soil type, land use, and hydrology. To date (10/2025), 118 sites have been established across Germany, with standardized measurements of soil, hydrology, vegetation, and surface motion, supplemented by management surveys. Long-term monitoring aims to include 150 sites. [...] |
| Keywords: | Moorboden, organische Böden, organische Bodensubstanz, Kohlenstoffvorrat, Stickstoffvorrat, Hydrologie, Geländehöhen, Monitoring, Landnutzung, Treibhausgasemissionen, Emissionsberichterstattung, peatland, organic soils, soil organic matter, carbon stock, nitrogen stock, hydrology, surface motion, monitoring, land use, greenhouse gas, emission reporting |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:331864 |
| By: | Giovanni Marin (Dipartimento di Economia, Società , Politica, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy; SEEDS, Italy; FEEM,); Aung Tun Oo (Dipartimento di Economia, Società , Politica, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how extreme heat affects workplace accidents in Italy's various economic sectors. Using granular data by sector, day, and province (NUTS-3) for 2018–2024, we evaluate the contribution of occupational exposure as a source of diverse effects at the sector level. Our findings imply that while the average effects of extreme heat on workplace accidents are, at best, negligible, high temperatures significantly raise the frequency of medium-to-low severity accidents for sectors with high levels of exposure, while exposure and extreme heat alone do not account for fatalities. |
| Keywords: | workplace accidents, heterogeneous effect, fixed-effect regression, vulnerability, extreme temperature |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:1325 |
| By: | David Kurjak (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of selected policy decisions and energy supply disruptions on electricity prices from 2015 to 2025. Announcements elicited modest, transitory movements. Realized disruptions such as armed conflict or interruptions to gas pipeline flows generated sharp and persistent price increases. Results indicate that electricity prices are highly sensitive to gas and carbon markets. These findings provide new evidence on the drivers of electricity pricing in integrated European markets. |
| Keywords: | electricity prices, event study, energy policy, carbon costs, natural gas prices, market integration |
| JEL: | C32 G14 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:106_2025 |
| By: | Yuan Zhao; Pin-Te Lin |
| Abstract: | Extensive body of literature investigating the dynamic relationship between national housing and stock price movements has been conducted. However, studies focusing on the regional housing markets are scant. In this study, we intend to explore the dynamics between regional housing, residential REITs, and stock markets in the US, to provide a comprehensive view of the spatialisation of the performance of indirect real estate, direct real estate, and stock markets. Using house price index for national and 20 cities, we employ the unconditional and rolling-window three-dimensional VAR model and Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index to investigate the contemporaneous relationships among the three markets. The linkage between causality and spatial dynamics from the local housing market, such as population, income, and elasticities, have been examined. We find strong bi-directional causality between stock market and residential REITs, at both national- and city-level. However, only single-directional causality has been detected from stock or residential REITs to housing market for majority of cities, implying a wealth effect. We find stronger spillovers from REITs to housing compared to stock to housing market. The spillovers from housing to the other two markets are significantly lower. The transmission of spillovers get intensified during economics crisis periods, and regional market elasticities. |
| Keywords: | housing market; Residential REITs; Spillovers; Stock market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_305 |
| By: | Iftikhar Ahmad (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study reports important literature on resource distribution in Pakistan. Resource distribution is a vast policy area having three different dimensions including federal to provinces transfers, provincial to local governments transfers and direct transfers from federal to local governments. This study specifically concentrate on the first proposition, hence, analyses literature on National Finance Commission awards (NFC) in Pakistan. There is handsome literature available on resource distribution in Pakistan but a major chunk seems to be repetitive given the stagnant state of affairs in Pakistan. For analysis, studies have mainly relied on three methodological spheres including thematic analysis, basic arithmetic estimates and the econometric techniques that frame the cause and effect dimensions of fiscal resource distribution. Papers, as obvious, adopted thematic analysis while discussing the resource distribution mechanisms overtime. The papers broadly structured the discussion around different NFC awards and explained the changes and disagreements among the stakeholders. These studies enable the reader to understand the historical overview of the resource distribution in Pakistan. The second strand of discussion on resource distribution consists of the studies that have presented arithmetic estimates to discuss the current or suggested resource distribution and their implications on provincial resource availability. Lastly, a number of studies have resorted to econometric techniques to report the impact of fiscal decentralisation on different economic and social indicators namely economic growth, public expenditure efficiency, health, education, poverty, infrastructure as well as governance and corruption. These studies have worked out the cause and effect analysis and commented on the effectiveness of fiscal resource distribution in Pakistan employing different dependent variables. To summarize, this study agrees that NFC award of 2010 is a step forward in the stagnant affairs of resource distribution in Pakistan, nevertheless, the current formula as well as the resource distribution mechanism is still far from optimal in true sense. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Federalism, formula transfers, grants, intergovernmental relations, NFC Awards, Pakistan, resource distribution mechanism |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:11 |
| By: | Ligon, Ethan; Silver, Jedidiah |
| Abstract: | Consumption in rural areas of low-income countries is often highly variable across seasons. What drives this seasonality, and can the welfare of households across the "lean season" be improved via the provision of credit? We measure prices and consumption for farm-households across seasons in Gombe, Nigeria, and at the same time elicit information about farmers' intertemporal marginal rates of substitution by offering them one-month bonds with different rates of return. Against this background, we also implement a randomized post-harvest loan (PHL) program, which provides credit---up to a generous ceiling---at a subsidized interest rate. Farmers randomly offered the loan almost universally borrow the maximum amount. In this experiment, we find that treated farmers store more grain. This is a risky investment, and in the year of our experiment it did not pay off, as maize prices did not increase following the harvest. Given this, it is unsurprising that we find no significant effects of the loan on consumption, investment or welfare---using the PHL to make a leveraged bet on maize prices going up was bad investment /ex post/. Was it a bad investment /ex ante/? This depends on whether lean seasons are due to poorly functioning financial markets in Gombe, or because markets in Gombe are poorly integrated with the broader market. We adapt tools from the asset pricing literature to our data to test the null of well-functioning local financial markets in Gombe. We fail to reject this null hypothesis, suggesting that promoting spatial integration may improve lean-season welfare more than the local provision of credit would. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Seasonality, Credit, Nigeria, Post-Harvest Loans |
| Date: | 2025–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt81k9j2q0 |
| By: | Sadeghi, Abdorasoul; Roudari, Soheil; Nammouri, Hela |
| Abstract: | Given the importance of the global issues of climate change and environmental pollution in sustainable development, this study aims to investigate whether there is a connection among green finance, fossil energy, and institutional factors, considering the significance of a transition to renewable clean energy from fossil energy in sustainable development. For this purpose, the effects of fossil energy on the S&P green bonds are compared by considering and ignoring institutional quality as an interaction term in various oil shocks, using the threshold structural vector autoregression (TSVAR) technique for the US in 2012-2019. The findings indicate that the sensitivity of green bonds to oil shocks is limited to short-term periods. Institutional factors make this sensitivity more persistent, extending into the medium and long term. These results highlight the significance of institutional quality in the development of green bonds, especially when the oil market and the large amount of money circulating into it create grounds for corruption, the role of administrative integrity, legal structures, and government policies becomes more prominent. Hence, the integrity and quality of institutional factors, which includes corruption incentives, democratic accountability, government stability, bureaucracy as well as law and orders, should be taken into account in policymaking. |
| Keywords: | Green bonds; Institutional quality; Oil; Sustainable development; TSVAR |
| JEL: | C24 G12 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126836 |
| By: | Stephan Puehringer (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Socio-Ecological Transformation Lab, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria); Lukas Baeuerle (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Socio-Ecological Transformation Lab, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | The paper introduces the SETER framework, a conceptual tool for analyzing the interplay between Socio-Ecological Transformation (SET) and Economic Reasoning (ER). In the context of global crises and the contested nature of sustainability discourses, the framework identifies nine key categories – ranging from economic goals and the role of the state to transformative dynamics and agency – to systematically compare diverse SET narratives and their basic underlying economic assumptions. Drawing on insights from Social Studies of Economics (SSE) and Sustainability Transitions Research (STR), the framework highlights how ER shapes SET discourses and potential pathways, influencing both the diagnosis of socio-ecological crises and its proposed solutions. The paper applies the framework for two contrasting cases: the EU Green Deal, which exemplifies a market-driven “green growth” narrative, and Kohei Saito’s Degrowth Manifesto, which advocates for commons-based, sufficiency-oriented transformation. These cases illustrate the framework’s ability to map competing visions of SET, revealing the systemic dependencies between ER categories and their manifestations. The SETER framework also enables a typification of antagonistic narratives opposing SET, such as techno-libertarian or fossil-modernization discourses. While the framework provides a useful tool for categorizing and comparing SET narratives, its integration with power-focused analytical tools is necessary to assess the performative influence of these narratives. By offering a flexible, cross-sectoral, and longitudinal approach, the SETER framework provides a robust methodology for navigating the complexities of SET-related discourses, fostering critical reflection on economic imaginaries, and envisioning equitable and sustainable pathways for transformation. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ico:wpaper:171 |
| By: | Siqi Huang; Anupam Nanda; Eero Valtonen |
| Abstract: | Traditional ESG ratings, which primarily rely on structured data and qualitative assessments, often fail to capture the nuanced nature of ESG-related communications. Sentiment analysis using computational linguistics approaches offers a valuable complementary approach by systematically capturing the tone of ESG disclosures and media coverage, providing deeper insights into corporate sustainability commitments and stakeholder perceptions. This study adopts a novel approach using textual information set and investigates the relationship between ESG-related sentiment and the financial performance of Real Estate firms. Using a dataset of ESG-related press releases and news articles from 67 U.S. REITs, we employ three sentiment analysis models—TextBlob, Loughran and McDonald, and FinBERT—to extract sentiment scores at multiple levels. A polarity-based ESG Disclosure Sentiment Score (ESGDSS) is then developed and validated through correlation analysis with MSCI ESG Ratings. Furthermore, a regression-based analysis is conducted to evaluate the impact of ESGDSS on key financial and credit performance indicators. The findings add to our understanding of ESG in the real estate sector and its implications for investors. |
| Keywords: | ESG Communication; REITs; Sentiment Analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_241 |
| By: | Tim Hughes (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | New Zealand is characterised by very high levels of inward and outward migration, both temporary and permanent. These population movements have important fiscal consequences, as illustrated in the Treasury’s recent long-term fiscal statement. Net migration affects fiscal aggregates, and transnational population movements affect how the costs and benefits of public finances are distributed between people. This paper describes the development of a population dataset that captures these movements in and out of the country. The ambition is to attach fiscal information to the population dataset in future, to help understand longitudinal patterns of expenditure and revenue among different cohorts of people such as temporary or permanent migrants, New Zealand emigrants and returning New Zealanders. The New Zealand population is typically estimated as a ‘stock’ concept as at a point in time. But fiscal analysis usually focuses on flows of revenue and expenditure over periods of time such as a year. This paper thus develops a ‘flow’ concept of population. The focus is on the number of days someone is in the country in a year. Even if someone is not part of the ‘usual’ population, for the time they are present in the country they will have an impact on fiscal aggregates. On the revenue side, they will contribute GST, at least, and perhaps income tax as well. And on the expenditure side, more people means more pressure on infrastructure and social services. I describe the population dataset as capturing a ‘transnational’ population, in contrast to the typical ‘resident’ population. This term transnationalism refers to both long-term immigration into and emigration out of New Zealand. It also refers to onward migration of immigrants to other countries, return migration of emigrants (after an OE, say) and diverse patterns of temporary work, residence or study. This note reflects the analytical structure used to build up the population dataset. I start by defining physical presence in the country. In the second stage I develop a definition of residence, then add information about the legal basis for presence in the country. In the final stage I use this information to develop and apply a set of transnational states. The final section illustrates the analytical possibilities of the data by showing transitions between different transnational states for different cohorts of students arriving in New Zealand, showing that many go on to become temporary workers and then residents. |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztans:an25/09 |
| By: | Coccia, Mario |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the political economy of growth by examining the interplay between globalization dynamics, trade performance, and wealth creation over the period 1971–2023. Dominant theories in international economics often posit that deeper globalization fosters export expansion and sustained GDP growth. However, the empirical evidence presented here challenges this linear assumption. Findings indicate that higher levels of globalization do not consistently translate into improved export capacity or rising GDP per capita. Instead, structural disruptions—geopolitical tensions, economic shocks, and protectionist trade regimes—frequently constrain anticipated benefits, revealing systemic vulnerabilities within the global economy. Building on interdisciplinary theoretical perspectives from political economy and development studies, the analysis introduces the concept of an optimal investment threshold. This threshold represents a critical level of foreign direct investment (FDI) net outflows, expressed as a percentage of GDP, beyond which the marginal gains of globalization diminish. Exceeding this point can trigger systemic decline, characterized by stagnating GDP growth and weakened trade performance, thereby challenging the sustainability of globalization-driven development models.These insights underscore the need for recalibrated strategies that integrate structural limits into policy design. By promoting inclusive growth through balanced investment flows and coordinated international regulation, the study reframes globalization as a managed process rather than an automatic engine of prosperity. This theoretical contribution advances debates on global economic governance and offers a framework for policymakers to align investment dynamics with long-term development objectives. |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:p5ync_v1 |
| By: | Martin Brown (Study Center Gerzensee and University of St. Gallen); Daniel Hoechle (University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland); Lizet Alejandra Perez Cortes (University of St. Gallen); Markus Schmid (University of St. Gallen, Swiss Finance Institute (SFI), and European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to household consumption through wealth effects in a small open economy. As a natural experiment, we exploit the 2015 Swiss franc shock, triggered by the Swiss National Bank’s unexpected removal of the euro exchange rate floor. Using granular administrative data from a retail bank, we document substantial consumption responses by households with portfolio exposures to the policy shock. We show that a 1% valuation loss on financial assets is associated with a 0.7% reduction in total spending in the quarter following the shock. This effect is driven by large-ticket spending rather than out-of-pocket spending, attenuates rapidly over time, and depends strongly on the magnitude of the valuation loss. Our results provide direct evidence of a sizeable, immediate, and short-lived wealth channel of monetary policy. They underscore the role of exchange-rate-induced asset revaluations in shaping consumption dynamics in open economies. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:szg:worpap:2506 |
| By: | Beth Hammack |
| Abstract: | After 13 years, this series has proven its value as the place to be for financial stability researchers, regulators, and practitioners. It was created at a time when the Global Financial Crisis was still fresh in our minds. Since then, many of you have contributed to a growing body of work identifying new vulnerabilities in the financial system and developing tools to counteract shocks that come our way. The pandemic shock—and the Fed’s robust and effective response—was a sharp reminder that when it comes to financial stability, you can never let your guard down. The Fed has a strong interest in financial stability, and not only because promoting it is one of our core functions. Financial stability supports our other objectives: fostering a safe and sound banking system, an efficient payments system, community development, and our monetary policy objectives of maximum employment and stable prices. So what do we mean by financial stability? A stable financial system is one that is resilient to shocks and one in which lenders are able to provide households, communities, and businesses with the financing they need to improve economic opportunities. Right now, my view is that the financial system meets this definition. Banks are better capitalized than they were a few years ago, despite lingering effects from unrealized losses on securities and loans from some older assets. Equally important, households in the aggregate are in good financial shape. While leverage is elevated in some parts of the financial system—including among hedge funds and life insurers—the overall picture appears sound. |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcsp:102139 |
| By: | Koller, Julian; Stefanova, Stefani |
| Abstract: | We leverage a novel spatial IV approach to develop a reduced-form estimator that maps local trade shocks into aggregate outcomes, accounting for inter-regional spillovers. For the China shock in the U.S., we find strong evidence for employment spillovers at the local level, which appear to propagate through input-output linkages rather than labor mobility. They shift the shock’s employment ramifications away from the Pacific and North Atlantic towards the South Atlantic region. For aggregate employment, our model rationalizes the 30% difference between Autor et al. (2013) and the structural follow-up literature but implies that it is insignificant from a statistical standpoint. |
| Keywords: | Trade Flows, Local Labor Markets, Import Competition |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126772 |
| By: | Akoko, Peter Obuon; Gathungu, Edith; De Groote, Hugo |
| Abstract: | Maize is most common staple food in Sub-Saharan Africa but in most cases, preserved using the traditional drying method which expose maize to severe losses and quality deterioration. Improved maize drying methods are therefore considered an alternative technique to dry maize. Studies from developed countries have found improved dryers to be more efficient and sustainable, however, developing countries like Kenya are still yet to adopt these technologies. Evaluating smallholder maize farmers’ willingness to pay for improved maize dryers in Njoro Sub-County explains this slow adoption rate. This paper sampled 306 small-scale maize farmers and characterized them based on their willingness to use the dryers. Double bounded choice model was then used to determine farmers’ willingness to pay. The results show that commercial maize production (P- value =0.078, β=13.92958), cooperative membership (P-value=0.053, β=24.40269), higher maize prices (P-value =0.022, β=0.0276285) and subjective norms (P-value=0.005, β=23.75356) positively influenced willingness to pay, while factors like familiarity (P-value=0.044, β=- 34.41718) and liking of the maize dryer (P-value=0.051, β=-16.46909) had a negative impact. The findings emphasize the importance of considering education, farming experience, land size, cooperative membership, access to extension services, and commercial market channels when marketing improved maize dryers. The ideal adopters are farmers with advanced education, years of farming experience, larger land size, cooperative membership, and access to relevant services. To enhance the adoption of improved maize dryers, stakeholders should support farmers in expanding production land, joining cooperatives, accessing extension services, and connecting with commercial maize markets. Additionally, awareness programs targeting older farmers with large households and those lacking post-harvest training may help address factors associated with unwillingness to use improved maize dryers. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344279 |