|
on Investment |
| By: | Han, Jung Min (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The overall composite Business Survey Index for the manufacturing sector in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 remained under the baseline (100). Most feeder indices declined compared to the previous quarter. Business conditions slightly dipped from 84 to 78, and sales further declined to 77, compared to 87 in the previous quarter. Domestic demand (79) and exports (86) remained below the benchmark level of 100, recording even lower levels than in the previous quarter, when domestic demand posted an 86 and exports a 90. Facility investment (95) remained at the same level as the previous quarter, while inventory (99) continued to stay below the baseline (100). Meanwhile, Ordinary profit (80) turned downward again. Only employment (96) showed a slight increase compared to the previous quarter. BSI forecasts for Q2 2025 suggest that both business conditions BSI (91) and sales BSI (95) will remain below the baseline (100) for the fourth consecutive quarter. The outlook for domestic demand (94) and exports (96) has improved compared to the previous quarter, but both are still expected to stay below the baseline of 100. Facility investment (96) and employment (97) are also projected to rise slightly from the previous quarter. |
| Keywords: | BSI; Business Survey Index; industrial outlook; industrial forecasting; economic outlook; economic forecasting; South Korea; Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade; KIET |
| JEL: | E66 |
| Date: | 2025–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2025_016 |
| By: | Barry Chiswick; Hope Corman; Dhaval M. Dave; Nancy Reichman |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes, for the first time, the effect of increases in the minimum wage on the labor market outcomes of working age adults with cognitive disabilities, a vulnerable and low-skilled sector of the actual and potential labor pool. Using data from the American Community Survey (2008-2023), we estimated effects of the minimum wage on employment, labor force participation, weeks worked, and hours worked among working age individuals with cognitive disabilities using a generalized difference-in-differences research design. We found that a higher effective minimum wage leads to reduced employment and labor force participation among individuals with cognitive disabilities but has no significant effect on labor supply at the intensive margin for this group. Adverse impacts were particularly pronounced for those with lower educational attainment. In contrast, we found no significant labor market effects of an increase in the minimum wage for individuals with physical disabilities or in the non-disabled population. |
| JEL: | J14 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33990 |
| By: | Fabio Gatti; Joel Huesler |
| Abstract: | The correspondence of historical personalities serves as a rich source of psychological, social, and economic information. Letters were indeed used as means of communication within the family circles but also a primary method for exchanging information with colleagues, subordinates, and employers. A quantitative analysis of such material enables scholars to reconstruct both the internal psychology and the relational networks of historical figures, ultimately providing deeper insights into the socio-economic systems in which they were embedded. In this study, we analyze the outgoing correspondence of Michelangelo Buonarroti, a prominent Renaissance artist, using a collection of 523 letters as the basis for a structured text analysis. Our methodological approach compares three distinct Natural Language Processing Methods: an Augmented Dictionary Approach, which relies on static lexicon analysis and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) for topic modeling, a Supervised Machine Learning Approach that utilizes BERT-generated letter embeddings combined with a Random Forest classifier trained by the authors, and an Unsupervised Machine Learning Method. The comparison of these three methods, benchmarked to biographic knowledge, allows us to construct a robust understanding of Michelangelo’s emotional association to monetary, thematic, and social factors. Furthermore, it highlights how the Supervised Machine Learning method, by incorporating the authors’ domain knowledge and understanding of documents and background, can provide, in the context of Renaissance multi-themed letters, a more nuanced interpretation of contextual meanings, enabling the detection of subtle (positive or negative) sentimental variations due to a variety of factors that other methods can overlook. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp25251 |
| By: | Jochmans, Koen |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with models for matched worker-firm data in the presence of both worker and firm heterogeneity. We show that models with complementarity and sorting can be nonparametrically identified from short panel data while treating both worker and firm heterogeneity as discrete random effects. This paradigm is different from the framework of Bonhomme, Lamadon and Manresa (2019), where identification results are derived under the assumption that worker effects are random but firm heterogeneity is observed. The latter assumption requires the ability to consistently assign firms to latent clusters, which may be challenging; at a minimum, it demands minimal firm size to grow without bound. Our setup is compatible with many theoretical specifications and our approach is constructive. Our identification results appear to be the first of its kind in the context of matched panel data problems. |
| Keywords: | bipartite graph; nonlinearity; panel data; sorting; unobserved heterogeneity |
| JEL: | C23 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130607 |
| By: | Beatrice Chauvin (LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | L'étude d'une Entreprise à Mission dans le secteur de l'habitat social : déployer la raison d'être, une étude de cas dans les Alpes de Haute Provence |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05093360 |
| By: | Imke Reimers; Benjamin Reed Shiller; Benjamin R. Shiller |
| Abstract: | We analyze how self-driving vehicles (SDVs) influence commuter behavior and returns to long-lived public transit investments. Using a commuting mode model estimated on detailed home and work location data from Greater Boston, we simulate the widespread entry of SDVs, which offer passive travel similar to transit but use existing road networks. We find that SDVs increase vehicle miles by 40% while decreasing public transit use by about 10%. Transit improvements continue to moderately boost revenues and lower miles driven, but their effects on mileage are small compared to SDVs. These findings highlight planning challenges posed by the emergence of SDVs. |
| Keywords: | self-driving vehicles, public transit investment, infrastructure planning, transportation economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11956 |
| By: | Jean-Yves Juban (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Christelle Martin-Lacroux |
| Abstract: | Le rôle de la qualité de vie et des conditions de travail dans l'attractivité des emplois |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05093368 |
| By: | Salmi, Jamil; Amegah, Alice; Shinde, Aarya Rajendra |
| Abstract: | This study explores the link between digital skills, innovation, and economic transformation in the context of Africa, focusing on the role and potential contribution of higher education institutions in the development of advanced skills for the digital transition. It documents relevant global case studies from Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America that showcase good examples of investment in skills development through higher education and their impact on innovation and economic growth. The study investigates the evolving global demand for digital skills and explores how advanced digital skills can create new economic development opportunities for Africa and help solve the big challenges faced by the subcontinent, such as food security, health threats, learning poverty, and climate change. It takes stock of existing capacities for digital skills training in Sub-Saharan Africa and proposes a bold vision for improving and expanding digital skills education programs. |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdgewp:203093 |
| By: | Salmi, Jamil; Amegah, Alice; Shinde, Aarya Rajendra |
| Abstract: | This study explores the link between digital skills, innovation, and economic transformation in the context of Africa, focusing on the role and potential contribution of higher education institutions in the development of advanced skills for the digital transition. It documents relevant global case studies from Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America that showcase good examples of investment in skills development through higher education and their impact on innovation and economic growth. The study investigates the evolving global demand for digital skills and explores how advanced digital skills can create new economic development opportunities for Africa and help solve the big challenges faced by the subcontinent, such as food security, health threats, learning poverty, and climate change. It takes stock of existing capacities for digital skills training in Sub-Saharan Africa and proposes a bold vision for improving and expanding digital skills education programs. |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdgens:203093 |
| By: | Yuki, Kazuhiro |
| Abstract: | Economic disparity between different ethnic groups is substantial in many countries. In developing countries, ethnic inequality appears to significantly impede economic development. In developed countries, the economic and cultural integration of increasing numbers of immigrants into society is a major concern. Income redistribution in a broader sense is a natural candidate for addressing ethnic inequality. Empilical study suggests that it also seems to contribute to development by reducing inequality and increasing educational investment among the poor. However, the scale of redistribution limited in many countries. Empirical findings suggest two potential explanations: the presence of culturally diverse ethnic groups and weak national identity. These findings raise various questions. Under what conditions do inter-ethnic cultural differences diminish over time? Is cultural convergence necessary to expand redistribution and reduce inter-ethnic income disparity? Does it always lead to such outcomes? Under what circumstances do large segments of the population share national identity? Is national identity necessary to increase redistribution? Does it always result in increased redistribution? How do cultural differences and national identity interact? To address these questions, this paper develops and examines a dynamic model of income redistribution and educational investment augmented with cultural change and social identification. |
| Keywords: | culture, development, ethnic inequality, human capital, redistribution, social identity |
| JEL: | I25 J15 J24 O15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124753 |
| By: | Paula Bejarano Carbo; Rory MacQueen; Efthymios Xylangouras |
| Abstract: | Our predecessors at NIESR helped pioneer the estimation of monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom (Mitchell et al., 2005). This approach, which led to the publication of monthly GDP by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) from 2018, aggregates sectoral indices (e.g. agriculture, construction) to produce an overall estimate of monthly economic growth. Since 2018, NIESR has produced its monthly GDP 'tracker' on the ONS estimate release date, commenting on the latest data point and producing a 'bottom-up' forecast (i.e. constructed by aggregating sectoral forecasts) of economic performance up to the end of the next quarter (Kara et al., 2018). The NIESR GDP tracker forecast of 10 sub-sectors and aggregate GDP combines a 'fixed parameter' approach and forecaster judgement to produce, we find, accurate estimates one month in advance of the official first estimate. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrp:46 |
| By: | Maihold, Günther |
| Abstract: | With the reconfiguration of international supply chains, Mexico has gained importance as a location for new foreign investments. The country has been able to benefit from nearshoring, that is, the relocation of services or production processes closer to consumer markets. This is associated with lower logistics costs and often better management of supplier relationships. However, this boom in investments has abated due to various uncertainties - not least being Washington's threats to raise tariffs, which burdens the economic prospects associated with nearshoring. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is attempting to counter this trend, but in view of the increasingly urgent demand by the United States for third countries to adopt an anti-Chinese course, Mexico is at risk of being caught in the trap of "security-shoring" and losing its autonomous room for manoeuvre. This is already forcing Mexico - as well as its economic partners who have invested there - to realign their production processes. |
| Keywords: | Mexico, foreign direct investment (FDI), nearshoring, relocation, services, production processes, consumer markets, President Claudia Sheinbaum, Donald Trump, Uniteds States, China, United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Tesla, Elon Musk, International Monetary Fund (IMF) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:319689 |
| By: | Mendoza, Karl Patrick Regala (Polytechnic University of the Philippines) |
| Abstract: | This research note engages political trust debates by foregrounding tiwala (trust) and pagsunod (submission) as relational, moral practices in Philippine urban governance. Drawing on five pilot interviews in Barangay Pinagbuhatan, Pasig City, it argues that trust is not merely an evaluative attitude or rational calculation but a dynamic, culturally mediated moral economy. This perspective challenges dominant Western-centric models that treat trust as a rational, pre-political disposition stabilizing democratic order. Building on an emerging trust cultures framework, the note shows how tiwala and pagsunod reveal trust as continuously contested and reshaped in everyday negotiations of care, legitimacy, and relational presence. These preliminary insights highlight how residents’ moral evaluations of leaders go beyond personalistic charisma to assess governance systems’ responsiveness and moral credibility. They also point to how hybrid governance environments—digital and face-to-face—shape trust cultures in transitional democracies. These reflections guide future comparative work across the Tiwala at Pagsunod (TaP) project’s three-city study. |
| Date: | 2025–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tv4jk_v1 |
| By: | Toshiyuki Uemura (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a theoretical model based on the optimization behaviors of households and local governments for the hometown tax donation (Furusato Nozei) system in Japan, which has garnered attention as a new means of obtaining financial resources for local governments. Further, it conducts theoretical, numerical simulation, and empirical analyses. This study is the first to apply the Krugman model, which focuses on brand power and the transportation cost of reciprocal gifts and addresses differentiated goods and spatial trade. The empirical analysis targets municipalities in Hokkaido because of (1) the brand power of Hokkaido products and (2) the fact that transport to Honshu is almost exclusively limited to airports and ports; thus, transportation costs can be analyzed. This study is also the first to use the transportation distance of reciprocal gifts measured using a road network. Comparative statics analysis based on the theoretical model revealed the following trends: Higher reciprocal gift prices reduce reciprocal gift consumption but have an indeterminate impact on donation amounts; stronger brand power increases both donation amounts and reciprocal gift consumption; and higher transportation costs reduce reciprocal gift consumption. Reciprocal gift ratio, brand power, and transportation costs also affect the optimal reciprocal gift price. Finally, the empirical analysis based on municipal data for Hokkaido confirms that the price of reciprocal gifts does not significantly affect donation amounts and negatively affects reciprocal gift consumption, whereas the number of reciprocal gift types (a proxy variable for brand power) positively affect both donation amounts and reciprocal gift consumption. Transportation distance to airports and ports negatively affects both, which is consistent with the results of the theoretical model. |
| Keywords: | Hometown tax donation system (Furusato Nozei), Brand power of reciprocal gifts, Transportation costs |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:294 |
| By: | Marco Zanotti |
| Abstract: | Forecast stability, that is the consistency of predictions over time, is essential in business settings where sudden shifts in forecasts can disrupt planning and erode trust in predictive systems. Despite its importance, stability is often overlooked in favor of accuracy, particularly in global forecasting models. In this study, we evaluate the stability of point and probabilistic forecasts across different retraining frequencies and ensemble strategies using two large retail datasets (M5 and VN1). To do this, we introduce a new metric for probabilistic stability (MQC) and analyze ten different global models and four ensemble configurations. The results show that less frequent retraining not only preserves but often improves forecast stability, while ensembles, especially those combining diverse pool of models, further enhance consistency without sacrificing accuracy. These findings challenge the need for continuous retraining and highlight ensemble diversity as a key factor in reducing forecast stability. The study promotes a shift toward stability-aware forecasting practices, offering practical guidelines for building more robust and sustainable prediction systems. |
| Keywords: | Time series, Demand forecasting, Forecasting competitions, Cross-learning, Global models, Forecast stability, Vertical stability, Machine learning, Deep learning, Conformal predictions. |
| JEL: | C53 C52 C55 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:553 |
| By: | José María Barrero; Nicholas Bloom; Kathryn Bonney; Cory Breaux; Catherine Buffington; Steven J. Davis; Lucia Foster; Brian McKenzie; Keith Savage; Cristina Tello-Trillo |
| Abstract: | Timely business-level measures of work from home (WFH) are scarce for the U.S. economy. We review prior survey-based efforts to quantify the incidence and character of WFH and describe new questions that we developed and fielded for the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). Drawing on more than 150, 000 firm-level responses to the BTOS, we obtain four main findings. First, nearly a third of businesses have employees who work from home, with tremendous variation across sectors. The share of businesses with WFH employees is nearly ten times larger in the Information sector than in Accommodation and Food Services. Second, employees work from home about 1 day per week, on average, and businesses expect similar WFH levels in five years. Third, feasibility aside, businesses’ largest concern with WFH relates to productivity. Seven percent of businesses find that onsite work is more productive, while two percent find that WFH is more productive. Fourth, there is a low level of tracking and monitoring of WFH activities, with 70% of firms reporting they do not track employee days in the office and 75% reporting they do not monitor employees when they work from home. These lessons serve as a starting point for enhancing WFH-related content in the American Community Survey and other household surveys. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-36 |
| By: | Federica Alfani; Danielle Aron; Aziz Atamanov; R. Andres Castaneda Aguilar; Carolina Diaz-Bonilla; Nancy Devpura; Reno Dewina; Arden Finn; Tony Fujs; Maria Fernanda Gonzalez; Nandini Krishnan; Nishtha Kocchar; Naresh Kumar; Christoph Lakner; Gabriel Lara Ibarra; Diego Lestani; Julia Liniado; Jonas Lonborg; Daniel Gerszon Mahler; Carolina Mejia-Mantilla; Veronica Montalva; Laura Moreno; Minh C. Nguyen; Eliana Rubiano; Zurab Sajaia; Diana Sanchez; Ganesh Seshan; Samuel K. Tetteh-Baah; Martha C. Viveros Mendoza; Haoyu Wu; Nishant Yonzan; Ayago Wambile |
| Abstract: | The June 2025 update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP) introduces several important changes to the data underlying the global poverty estimates. The most important change is the adoption of the 2021 Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs). In addition, new data for India has been incorporated and the existing series adjusted for comparability. This document details the changes to underlying data and the methodological reasons behind them. Depending on the availability of recent survey data, global and regional poverty estimates are reported up to 2023, together with nowcasts up to 2025. The PIP database now includes 74 new country-years, bringing the total number of surveys to over 2, 400, for 172 economies. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbgpmt:44 |
| By: | Hjalte Fejerskov Boas; Matthew Collin; Sarah Godar; Carolina Moura; Andreas Økland |
| Abstract: | The introduction of the automatic exchange of bank information under the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) marked a breakthrough in the fight against global financial secrecy. In this report, we evaluate the scope and coverage of the CRS—in a context marked by limited evidence, primarily due to restricted access to CRS data. For this purpose, we have compiled newly aggregated CRS data from 16 countries, covering roughly 30% of the global amount reported by the OECD for the year 2022. Our analysis reveals that the volume of data exchanged internationally has increased and improved substantially over recent years and that CRS-reported foreign wealth accounts for approximately 9% of household financial wealth. Moreover, the data highlights considerably higher average financial holdings in financial centers compared to other jurisdictions. At the same time, a relatively higher share of wealth in financial centers is held through passive corporate structures, indicating the CRS covers the sort of high-risk holdings for which it was designed. The household wealth held in financial centers reported under the CRS is at least 30 percent lower than previous EU Tax Observatory estimates of household offshore financial wealth which could be interpreted as an indication of underreporting. To fully leverage the CRS’s potential efforts to improve data quality and processing should continue. Greater transparency on the part of governments regarding the progress achieved, including public CRS statistics, would promote an informed public debate about international tax evasion and capital flight. |
| Keywords: | Automatic exchange of information, Common Reporting Standard, financial secrecy |
| JEL: | H26 G28 K34 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:report:007 |
| By: | Matthew O. Jackson |
| Abstract: | I discuss economic and social sources of inequality and elaborate on the role of social networks in inequality, economic immobility, and economic inefficiencies. The lens of social networks clarifies how the entanglement of people's information, opportunities, and behaviors with those of their friends and family leads to persistent differences across communities, resulting in inequality in education, employment, income, health, and wealth. The key role of homophily in separating groups within the network is highlighted. A network perspective's policy implications differ substantially from a narrower economic perspective that ignores social structure. I discuss the importance of ``policy cocktails'' that include aspects that are aimed at both the economic and social forces driving inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.13016 |
| By: | World Health Organization |
| Keywords: | Medicine and Health Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ctcres:qt8nr7990n |
| By: | Gianluigi Conzo; Pierluigi Conzo |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the unintended effects of a sudden media shift from pandemic health-crisis coverage to the Russo-Ukrainian war. Using a dynamic Difference-in-Differences, we first examine how increased media focus on the war impacted contagion across Italian municipalities, with proximity to U.S. military bases serving as our treatment and proxy for heightened fear. Our findings reveal a temporary spike in infections, particularly in areas closer to bases, driven by increased mobility and a rise in "bunker" Google searches. Secondly, we show that politicians, especially from right-wing parties, gained electoral advantages in subsequent unexpected elections by leveraging war-related fears at the onset of the conflict. Voters in districts near bases responded more to the emotional tone of war-related messaging than its volume, underscoring fear’s influence on political outcomes. In contrast, left-wing parties benefited from the war’s media prominence, as their supporters responded more to issue salience than to emotional tone. |
| Keywords: | Media attention, Issue salience, Health outcomes, Electoral outcomes, Political communication, COVID-19, Russo-Ukrainian War, Fear of war. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:743 |
| By: | Mario Larch; Philipp Meinen; Arne J. Nagengast; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | We develop and test a theory of efficient international trade. Efficiency gains arise through lower trade costs faced by ‘trade specialists’, whose superiority over ‘common traders’ manifests itself through lower trade costs. To test our theory, we construct and deploy a novel dataset based on firm-level merchanting data. Our estimates reveal that, on average, the trade costs for the ‘trade specialists’ are about four times lower than for non-specialists. The corresponding welfare effects from globally efficient trade amount to a remarkable gain of 80%, on average, which sends an encouraging message for the potential gains from trade that are missing in the existing literature. |
| Keywords: | efficiency, international trade, trade costs, gains from trade |
| JEL: | D60 D61 F14 F12 F10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11942 |
| By: | Mondon, Camille; Trinh, Thi-Huong; Martín-Fernández, Josep Antoni; Thomas-Agnan, Christine |
| Abstract: | Given samples of density functions on an interval (a, b) of R, categorized according to a factor variable, we aim to test the equality of their mean functions both overall and across the groups defined by the factor. While the Functional Analysis of Variance (FANOVA) methodology is well-established for functional data, its adaptation to density functions (DANOVA) is necessary due to their inherent constraints of positivity and unit integral. To accommodate these constraints, we naturally use Bayes spaces methodology by mapping the densities using the centered log-ratio transformation into the L^2_0 (a, b) space where we can use FANOVA techniques. Many traditional contrasts in FANOVA rely on squared differences and can be reinterpreted as squared distances between Bayes perturbations within the densities space. We illustrate our methodology on a dataset comprising daily maximum temperatures across Vietnamese provinces between 1987 and 2016. Within the context of climate change, we first investigate the existence of a non-zero temporal trend of the densities of daily maximum temperature over Vietnam and then examine whether there is any regional effect on these trends. Finally, we explore odds ratio based interpretations allowing to describe the trends more locally. |
| Keywords: | Analysis of variance; Density data; Functional data; Log ratio; Odds ratio; Bayes spaces |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130641 |
| By: | Kenny, Sean; Stuart, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | We construct estimates of quarterly GDP for Ireland from 1950, linking to official data from 1995 onward, using a novel factor-augmented Chow-Lin interpolation. Compared to the only alternative series (OECD, 2025), our procedure exploits the variation in a large number of official quarterly economic data and our estimates are broadly consistent with contemporary reports. Our series permits a more granular identification of business cycle turning points than was previously possible. The frequency and magnitude of quarterly contractions in the 1950s and 1980s dwarfed those of other decades resulting in lower average growth rates. In contrast, the 1990s are confirmed as a decisive period of higher growth and rapid convergence. |
| Keywords: | Irish quarterly GDP, principal components, Chow-Lin interpolation, factors, economic growth |
| JEL: | E01 N14 O47 O40 P44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:320436 |
| By: | Sébastien Laffitte (EU Tax Observatory); Edoardo Montagner (EU Tax Observatory) |
| Abstract: | This report examines the evolution of harmful corporate tax practices in recent years, as well as the development of blacklists intended to identify such practices. First, it shows that harmful tax practices are no longer confined to easily identifiable jurisdictions known for aggressive tax policies. Second, it finds that current blacklists—although they may be linked to potentially effective sanctions—are generally too limited in scope to produce significant economic effects. Finally, the report proposes enhanced criteria for constructing blacklists of harmful tax regimes. In particular, it argues that introducing a quantitative criterion based on effective tax rates is essential to account for the recent evolution of harmful tax competition. |
| Keywords: | Harmful tax practices, tax competition, blacklists |
| JEL: | H26 H87 F38 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:report:008 |
| By: | Anubhab Pattanayak ((corresponding author) IIT-Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India); K.S. Kavi Kumar (Professor, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, 600025) |
| Abstract: | Non-availability of official, single-source, reliable and easy to access weather data at administrative regions such as states and districts poses significant challenges for Indian social science research community interested in climate impact research and policy. This paper provides a brief summary of evolution of access to weather data in the public domain over the past three decades in India. Gridded datasets being the standard for making available the official weather information, the paper discusses the concepts and procedures involved in using such data products to arrive at weather information at various administrative scales. A transparent approach to spatially interpolate the gridded weather data (supplied by IMD) on temperature and rainfall to determine state and district level estimates of weather over the period 1951 to 2021 is presented. The paper further analyzes the long-term trends and changes in the distribution of annual and intra-annual temperature and rainfall at the All India level and at one sub-national state (Tamil Nadu) level across multiple time-scales (i.e., 1951-1980, 1981-2010, and 2011-2021) using traditional methods such as Mann-Kendall tests and Sen’s Slope estimates. The paper further reports the climate trends across Tamil Nadu districts over the period 1951 to 2021 using the visually appealing Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis. |
| Keywords: | Weather Data; Climate Trends; Mann-Kendall; IPTA |
| JEL: | C14 C23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2025-281 |
| By: | David Kohns; Tibor Szendrei |
| Abstract: | Crossing of fitted conditional quantiles is a prevalent problem for quantile regression models. We propose a new Bayesian modelling framework that penalises multiple quantile regression functions toward the desired non-crossing space. We achieve this by estimating multiple quantiles jointly with a prior on variation across quantiles, a fused shrinkage prior with quantile adaptivity. The posterior is derived from a decision-theoretic general Bayes perspective, whose form yields a natural state-space interpretation aligned with Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) models. Taken together our approach leads to a Quantile- Varying Parameter (QVP) model, for which we develop efficient sampling algorithms. We demonstrate that our proposed modelling framework provides superior parameter recovery and predictive performance compared to competing Bayesian and frequentist quantile regression estimators in simulated experiments and a real-data application to multivariate quantile estimation in macroeconomics. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.13257 |
| By: | Philip Verwimp |
| Abstract: | The northern provinces of Burundi have suffered from subordination in the education system since independence. This paper shows that the post-war, northern-led regime has chosen a drastic way to reverse that subordination. The national test (Concours National) at the end of primary school is at the heart of the matter. Using the universe of individual test score data which can be used to construct a school-level panel and applying difference-in-differences analysis, the paper shows strong improvements in test scores in northern versus southern schools since the ruling party won an absolute majority in the 2010 elections. Right after, schools situated in very poor, rural areas in the north score as high as schools in non-poor areas of the capital. The paper finds that increased success rates, improved mean test scores and decreased standard deviations are explained by the % of votes at the municipality level obtained by the ruling party in the 2010 parliamentary elections. Controlling for school budget per capita does not change the results. The latter are interpreted in the political economy of education reform in Burundi and considered as a case of ethno-regional favoritism in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Burundi; Elections; Ethno-regional favoritism; School test scores |
| Date: | 2023–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/371674 |
| By: | Hjalte Fejerskov Boas (University of Copenhagen); Mona Barake (Skatteforsk, NMBU) |
| Abstract: | Cryptocurrencies pose substantial challenges to tax enforcement due to their anonymous and decentralized properties, undermining conventional regulatory practices. We study the impact of an ambitious new enforcement initiative aimed at addressing these challenges: domestic third-party reporting of crypto income. We estimate tax compliance and behavioral responses to this new policy by combining unique Danish microdata from domestic crypto platforms, administrative tax records, and cross-border bank transfers. Despite the introduction of domestic third-party reporting, over 90% of crypto investors do not declare crypto income. Moreover, we identify a significant and persistent evasion response to the policy as investors shift trading activity from domestic platforms, subject to third-party reporting, to foreign platforms outside regulatory reach. Our findings underscore the limits of domestic enforcement strategies in addressing tax evasion for decentralized, borderless assets like cryptocurrencies, highlighting the need for international coordination. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrencies, Tax compliance, Tax enforcement |
| JEL: | D31 H24 H26 H31 G5 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:wpaper:029 |