|
on Investment |
| By: | Hiziroglu Aygun, Aysun; Karaca-Mandic, Pinar |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a significant minimum wage increase in Türkiye on infant birth weight and neonatal health. We utilize data from the Türkiye Demographic and Health Survey to investigate the birth outcomes of babies exposed to a 30% minimum wage hike during pregnancy. Leveraging variation in the predicted probability that a household includes a minimum-wage earner, we estimate a difference-in-differences model to identify the causal effect of prenatal exposure to the minimum wage increase. Our analysis reveals that exposure to a higher minimum wage during pregnancy significantly increases birth weight and reduces the likelihood of low birth weight ( |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, birth weight, prenatal health care, universal health coverage, Türkiye |
| JEL: | I12 J13 I38 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:329823 |
| By: | Lehner, Lukas; Massenbauer, Hannah (University of Zurich); Parolin, Zachary (The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); Pintro Schmitt, Rafael (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of minimum wage (MW) increases on poverty and food hardship in the United States from 1981–2019 using stacked difference-in-differences models and the Supplemental Poverty Measure. A $1 MW increase reduces poverty by 0.3–0.7 percentage points among all working-age adults and 1.2–1.7 percentage points among likely MW workers, while also reducing food insufficiency by 1.5 percentage points for this group. Effects on poverty are partially offset by higher living costs in MW-increasing states. MW increases meaningfully reduce poverty and food hardship for the workers most directly affected but deliver modest improvements for the broader working-age population. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, poverty, food hardship, stacked difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | I32 I38 J23 J38 J88 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-23 |
| By: | Migrow, Dimitri (University of Edinburgh); Park, Hyungmin (University of Warwick); Squintani, Francesco (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We study a leader’s choice of advisors, balancing political alignment, informational competence, and diversity of views. The leader can consult one or two advisors : one is politically aligned but less informed or shares potentially redundant information; the other is better informed but more biased. The leader’s optimal strategy can exhibit reversals. If both advisors are initially consulted, increasing the bias of the more biased advisor may cause the leader to exclude the aligned advisor to preserve truthfulness from the informed one. As bias rises further, the leader ultimately replaces the informed advisor if his bias becomes too large. When the leader is uncertain about the bias of the more informed advisor, increasing the chance of alignment can justify consulting both advisors. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wqapec:29 |
| By: | Ramaharo, Franck M. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the asymmetric relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Madagascar using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and annual data spanning 1984-2024. Our analysis reveals a statistically significant, long-run asymmetric impact. Negative changes in tourist arrivals exert a substantially stronger adverse effect on economic growth than the positive effect of equivalent increases. Furthermore, we investigate both symmetric and asymmetric causal linkages between tourism and economic growth. The symmetric causality analysis detects neither bidirectional nor unidirectional causality. This result, therefore, provides support for the neutrality hypothesis in Madagascar. However, the asymmetric causality test uncovers unidirectional effects running from economic growth to tourism. Specifically, positive shocks to economic growth Granger-cause subsequent negative shocks to tourism, while negative shocks to economic growth Granger-cause subsequent positive shocks to tourism. This pattern, which is consistent with the asymmetric conservation hypothesis, along with our empirical findings, collectively cautions against treating tourism as a primary engine of economic growth in Madagascar. Instead, our results highlight tourism's vulnerability to macroeconomic and financial instability and underscore the need for policies that stabilize the broader economy to ensure sustained tourism performance. |
| Keywords: | tourism development; economic growth; financial development; Madagascar; asymmetric analysis; Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeling |
| JEL: | L83 O16 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126422 |
| By: | Dirk Lauinger; Deepjyoti Deka; Sungho Shin |
| Abstract: | Electricity distribution companies deploy battery storage to defer grid upgrades by reducing peak demand. In deregulated jurisdictions, such storage often sits idle because regulatory constraints bar participation in electricity markets. Here, we develop an optimization framework that, to our knowledge, provides the first formal model of market participation constraints within storage investment and operation planning. Applying the framework to a Massachusetts case study, we find that market participation could deliver similar savings as peak demand reduction. Under current conditions, market participation does not increase storage investment, but at very low storage costs, could incentivize deployment beyond local distribution needs. This might run contrary to the separation of distribution from generation in deregulated markets. Our framework can identify investment levels appropriate for local distribution needs. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.12435 |
| By: | Antonio Di Paolo (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether acquiring proficiency in a local language improves neighbourhood quality in a bilingual region, focusing on Catalonia, Spain. The analysis uses rich microdata linked to census-tract measures of neighbourhood quality, including average local income, unemployment benefits per capita, and a composite socioeconomic status index. OLS results show that oral proficiency in Catalan among native Spanish speakers is associated with better residential outcomes. To address potential endogeneity of language skills, I exploit the implementation of a language-ineducation policy that introduced Catalan as a medium of instruction, promoting Catalan-Spanish bilingualism among native Spanish speakers. Specifically, I construct an instrument consisting in the interaction between years of language exposure during compulsory education and an indicator for native Spanish speakers, considering that the reform did not affect oral Catalan proficiency among native Catalan speakers and assuming cohort trends unrelated to the reform are homogeneous across language groups. IV/TSLS estimates reveal no causal effect of increased oral Catalan skills, induced by school language exposure among native Spanish speakers, on any measure of neighbourhood quality. Falsification exercises aimed at validating the main identification assumption, along with robustness checks addressing potential confounders and alternative mechanisms, support the identification strategy and reinforce the main findings. Overall, the results suggest that although the reform significantly raised oral Catalan proficiency among native Spanish speakers, this variation in language skills does not translate into changes in residential sorting or neighbourhood quality. |
| Keywords: | local language skills, bilingualism, language-in-education policy, neighbourhood quality JEL classification:I28, Z13 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202507 |
| By: | Abdelhakim Hammoudi (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Environ un quart de la production alimentaire mondiale est perdue, avec 25 % à 50 % de nourriture jetée tout au long de la chaîne d'approvisionnement. Or il existe un lien entre pertes alimentaires et disponibilité de l'offre d'une part, et capacité des systèmes alimentaires à assurer la sécurité alimentaire mondiale d'autre part. Ces constats confortent l'urgence à concevoir des politiques concrètes de lutte contre les pertes alimentaires post-récoltes. Dans ce billet qui reprend les principaux résultats d'un article publié dans la Revue d'économie politique, nous proposons une politique de Standard Logistique Minimum qui vise à limiter les sous-investissements logistiques le long de la chaîne de production et distribution, dont nous évaluons l'efficacité non seulement dans la réduction des pertes alimentaires, mais également par rapport aux effets collatéraux en termes de prix, d'offre et d'exclusion des producteurs. |
| Date: | 2024–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05302137 |
| By: | Luisa Alamá-Sabater (Department of Economics and IIDL, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Joan Crespo (Department of Economic Structure, Universidad de Valencia, Spain); Miguel Ángel Márquez (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | We empirically evaluate how the efficiency of Spanish public universities impacts regional economic performance in Spain during the period 2010–2019. Efficiency is measured using activity analysis methods that attempt to capture reflect how universities perform in their respective missions—namely, teaching, research, and knowledge transfer. We analyse the geography of higher education by examining efficiency at the provincial (NUTS3) and regional (NUTS2) levels, as well as for groups of regions (NUTS1). Our results offer several key insights. First, we find that geography plays a differential role primarily when knowledge transfer activities are considered, while geographical patterns are similar for teaching and research activities. Second, the impact of universities’ efficiency on regional economic activity varies across different outcome measures. While provinces with more efficient public university systems show higher labor productivity and capital intensity levels, there is no significant relationship with per capita income. The spatial analysis indicates that efficiency gains generate indirect and positive spillovers, particularly for capital intensity, suggesting that improvements in university performance can benefit broader regional areas. Additionally, institutional quality, measured through regional government performance indicators, reinforces these effects. Our findings suggest that policies aimed at enhancing university efficiency should prioritise the research mission. Among the three university missions, research has the greatest impact on improving productive processes and is the most effective in fostering regional economic development. |
| Keywords: | bias-corrected efficiency; capital intensity; higher education institutions; regional growth; productivity |
| JEL: | C61 J24 R11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2025/09 |
| By: | Priya, Kumari Neha |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic forced an abrupt transition to remote learning in K-12 education, exposing wide disparities in districts’ ability to sustain instruction. Much of the existing research highlights household-level inequities such as broadband access and parental support, but less is known about the institutional capacity of districts themselves. This study examines whether pre-pandemic administrative capacity, including digital infrastructure, budget transparency, and organizational planning, shaped districts’ ability to adapt during the crisis. Using publicly available panel data from 2018 to 2022 and a difference-in-differences (DiD) regression design, this study tests whether districts with stronger pre-2020 capacity achieved higher levels of remote learning success, measured through engagement, instructional weeks, and related outcomes. Results show that districts with higher administrative capacity prior to the pandemic delivered more resilient instruction and mitigated participation losses, particularly in lower-income contexts. These findings suggest that building institutional capacity before a crisis can reduce educational inequality and strengthen preparedness for future disruptions. |
| Date: | 2025–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:q9ypr_v1 |
| By: | Charles Gottlieb; Jan Grobovsek; Alexander Monge-Naranjo |
| Abstract: | We revisit the role of human capital in cross-country income differences. We develop a general equilibrium model where workers of different skill groups sort into occupations by comparative advantage. Wages and employment depend on workers' skill quality, occupation-specific country-embedded productivity, and occupational distortions. Using harmonized microdata for 50 countries, we infer these components from the model's equilibrium conditions. Workers in rich countries exhibit higher skill quality and substantially greater productivity, especially in white-collar occupations. Human capital explains 52 percent of output-per-worker gaps, largely through the complementarity between skill composition and quality, and further amplified by technology choices biased toward skilled labor. Adopting the US distribution of skill groups yields limited gains for poor countries without higher quality. Occupational distortions are more severe in low-income countries, reducing white-collar employment and raising wage premia, but with modest aggregate effects. |
| Keywords: | human capital; development accounting; occupational sorting; country-embedded productivity; wage premia |
| JEL: | O47 O15 J24 J31 E24 |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:101966 |
| By: | Lacher, Wolfram |
| Abstract: | The European Commission, Italy, and Greece are seeking to curb irregular migration through Libya. These efforts come at a time when several aspects of European Union (EU) migration policy in Libya must be acknowledged as having failed. This is particularly true of attempts to improve conditions in detention centres, and the situation of migrant workers and refugees more broadly. Most recently, a campaign by Libyan authorities against what they portrayed as EU plans to permanently settle migrants in the country showed that European policy is provoking considerable backlash. As the softer components of this policy have reached an impasse, it has been stripped to its hard core, namely arrangements with Libyan security actors to prevent departures, as well as support for interceptions at sea and returns to countries of origin. These measures are inextricably tied to Libya's system of arbitrary detention, which serves criminal interests. European attempts to disavow this system have been unconvincing and are preventing a serious reckoning with the political costs involved. |
| Keywords: | Libya, irregular migration, International Organization for Migration (IOM), United Nations (UN), arms embargo, Khalifa Haftar, European Union, European Commission, Italy, Greece, migrant workers, refugees, interceptions at sea, returns to countries of origin, Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC), Department for Combating Illegal Migration (DCIM) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:329916 |
| By: | Francesco Bianchi; Era Dabla-Norris; Salma Khalid |
| Abstract: | Utilizing large-scale surveys of over 27, 000 respondents across 13 advanced and emerging market economies conducted between April and May 2024, we examine how knowledge, beliefs, and preferences regarding government debt shape expectations about tax and spending policies. Our findings reveal significant gaps in public understanding of fiscal policy. Individuals consistently underestimate debt levels, particularly in high-debt countries, and tend to believe that fiscal adjustments will disproportionately affect them. We further show that greater lifetime exposure to fiscal consolidation is associated with increased pessimism about future economic prospects, reduced trust in government, and heightened expectations of rising debt, future tax increases, spending cuts, and inflation. Through randomized controlled experiments, we assess the causal impact of providing information about actual debt levels on household expectations. Informing respondents about their country’s debt levels lowers expectations of tax increases in contexts of stable debt and raises expectations of spending cuts in countries with rising debt. The effect of this information is moderated by individuals’ past experiences with fiscal consolidation, underscoring the interplay between historical context and current perceptions of fiscal policy. |
| JEL: | D83 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34382 |
| By: | Jochen Hartwig (Department of Economics and Business Administration, Chemnitz University of Technology, Germany, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, Hans Böckler Stiftung, Forum for Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies, Düsseldorf, Germany); Sascha Keil (Department of Economics and Business Administration, Chemnitz University of Technology, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of inventories in macroeconomic fluctuations across 29 European countries from 1999 to 2023, covering three major recessions. Using a novel panel dataset and dynamic panel-econometric methods, we analyse short- and long-run inventory behaviour. Results confirm the broadly pro-cyclical nature of inventories but reveal a more complex dynamic: inventories are initially depleted in response to demand shocks, followed by restocking and, in some cases, systematic correction after four quarters. During the Great Recession and Eurozone crisis, inventory depletion accounted for up to 80% of GDP losses, underscoring their amplifying role. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession featured limited de-stocking and earlier restocking, suggesting a structural shift in inventory strategies. These findings highlight inventories' dual role - as amplifiers or stabilizers - depending on the timing and nature of shocks, and call for greater attention to inventory dynamics in forecasting and policy design. |
| Keywords: | Inventory investment, Production, Business cycles, Recessions in Europe |
| JEL: | E22 E32 O52 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep066 |
| By: | Scholl, Lynn; Arellana, Julián; Cantillo, Víctor; Ojeda-Diaz, Alfredo J.; Oviedo, Daniel; Sabogal-Cardona, Orlando |
| Abstract: | Microtransit, or app-based collective transport, is a passenger transport service typically offered in medium-capacity vehicles using mobile phone apps. This service provides the advantages of public transport, allowing for more efficient use of vehicles, offering new opportunities to improve informal transit systems and reduce urban inequalities in Latin America and the Caribbean. This research examines how the level of service attributes, socioeconomic characteristics, and latent constructs (technological affinity, environmental attitudes, and security concerns in public transport) influence the willingness to use these services through two case studies in Mexico City, Mexico, and Barranquilla, Colombia. Data for this study comes from stated preference and perception surveys, which are commonly used in a psychometric and econometric approach to estimate integrated choice and latent variable models. The results indicate a high sensitivity to the price of the service. Attributes such as walking distance to access the service, travel time, service frequency, and schedule adherence reliability were also significant. There are substantial income differences in willingness to use microtransit services. Fare sensitivity is much higher among poorer segments of the population, affecting the potential of microtransit to address equity and inclusion issues in the cities studied. Of the latent constructs, only safety concerns about public transport were significant in the willingness to use microtransit services in both cities. When compared to men, women reported higher safety concerns and, as result, women have higher preference for microtransit services. Considering the results obtained from the modelling, sevearl policy considerations and actions are suggested to encourage the use of microtransit in the region and take advantage of its potential as a sustainable transport mode. |
| JEL: | O14 R42 R58 Z18 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14310 |
| By: | Tanrıverdi Yaşar, Nebahat |
| Abstract: | Once viewed by Ankara primarily as a fragmented security frontier, Iraq now sits at the centre of its regional strategy. This recalibration is shaped by shifting regional dynamics in the aftermath of 7 October: the weakening of Iran's influence across multiple fronts, the Gulf states' rising economic and diplomatic weight, and the search for new stabilising axes in the Middle East. Turkey's renewed engagement is not just about countering the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - it signals broader regional aspirations that combines security cooperation with Baghdad and Erbil, a fragile domestic peace process in Turkey, and a strategic push to embed Iraq within Turkey-Gulf trade and key regional energy infrastructures, including oil pipelines, prospective gas exports, and electricity interconnections. At the heart of this shift is a geoeconomic logic: by investing in shared infrastructure and fostering mutual interdependencies, Ankara seeks to consolidate its regional role. For Europe, the outcome will reverberate beyond Iraq by reshaping connectivity, energy access, and the stability of its south-eastern neighbours. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Iraq, Gulf states, Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Recep Tayyip Erdoægan, Persian Gulf, oil pipelines, prospective gas exports, electricity interconnections |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:329920 |
| By: | Michela Laura Bergamini; Leo Sleuwaegen; Bart Van Looy |
| Abstract: | Since the introduction of the notion ‘creative class’, artists have been portrayed as contributing to the innovation dynamics of cities and regions. While insights from qualitative studies suggest positive externalities from the arts to the knowledge economy, quantitative analyses so far offer only limited or no support for a systematic positive contribution to the (overall) innovative performance of regions. In this paper, we focus simultaneously on innovations of a technical nature (measured by patents) and of an aesthetic nature (measured by design rights). Relying on data of a large set of European regions (NUTS 2), we examine their joint impact on regional economic growth, and we analyze how different types of human capital – besides scientists and engineers, also artists – are associated with regional innovative performance. Our findings reveal that both types of innovation are relevant for explaining differences in regional growth. In addition, the analysis signals a distinctive contribution both from artists and from scientists and engineers, albeit in different activity realms. While scientists and engineers’ contribution towards regional innovation is very outspoken but confined to technological innovation, the presence of artists in the region is associated with technological and, more pronounced, with aesthetic innovation. Overall, our findings suggest the relevance of adopting a more encompassing view on innovation and creativity when assessing regional growth dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Creative class, artists, design rights, patents, regional innovation, economic growth |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:msiper:774092 |
| By: | Tatsuru Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | I develop a continuous functional framework for spatial treatment effects grounded in Navier-Stokes partial differential equations. Rather than discrete treatment parameters, the framework characterizes treatment intensity as continuous functions $\tau(\mathbf{x}, t)$ over space-time, enabling rigorous analysis of boundary evolution, spatial gradients, and cumulative exposure. Empirical validation using 32, 520 U.S. ZIP codes demonstrates exponential spatial decay for healthcare access ($\kappa = 0.002837$ per km, $R^2 = 0.0129$) with detectable boundaries at 37.1 km. The framework successfully diagnoses when scope conditions hold: positive decay parameters validate diffusion assumptions near hospitals, while negative parameters correctly signal urban confounding effects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals 2-13 $\times$ stronger distance effects for elderly populations and substantial education gradients. Model selection strongly favors logarithmic decay over exponential ($\Delta \text{AIC} > 10, 000$), representing a middle ground between exponential and power-law decay. Applications span environmental economics, banking, and healthcare policy. The continuous functional framework provides predictive capability ($d^*(t) = \xi^* \sqrt{t}$), parameter sensitivity ($\partial d^*/\partial \nu$), and diagnostic tests unavailable in traditional difference-in-differences approaches. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.15324 |
| By: | Duso, Tomaso; Harrington, Joseph E.; Kreuzberg, Carl; Sapi, Geza |
| Abstract: | Competition authorities increasingly rely on economic screening tools to identify markets where firms deviate from competitive norms. Traditional screening methods assume that collusion occurs through secret agreements. However, recent research highlights that firms can use public announcements to coordinate decisions, reducing competition while avoiding detection. We propose a novel approach to screening for collusion in public corporate statements. Using natural language processing, we analyze more than 300, 000 earnings call transcripts issued worldwide between 2004 and 2022. By identifying expressions commonly associated with collusion, our method provides competition authorities with a tool to detect potentially anticompetitive behavior in public communications. Our approach can extend beyond earnings calls to other sources, such as news articles, trade press, and industry reports. Our method informed the European Commission's 2024 unannounced inspections in the car tire sector, prompted by concerns over price coordination through public communication. |
| Keywords: | Communication, Collusion, NLP, Screening, Text Analysis |
| JEL: | C23 D22 L1 L4 L64 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:329636 |
| By: | Jesus Felipe; John McCombie; Aashish Mehta |
| Abstract: | For decades, the literature on the estimation of production functions has focused on the elimination of endogeneity biases through different estimation procedures to obtain the correct factor elasticities and other relevant parameters. Theoretical discussions of the problem correctly assume that production functions are relationships among physical inputs and output. However, in practice, they are most often estimated using deflated monetary values for output (value added or gross output) and capital. This introduces two additional problems--an errors-in-variables problem, and a tendency to recover the factor shares in value added instead of their elasticities. The latter problem derives from the fact that the series used are linked through the accounting identity that links value added to the sum of the wage bill and profits. Using simulated data from a cross-sectional Cobb-Douglas production function in physical terms from which we generate the corresponding series in monetary values, we show that the coefficients of labor and capital derived from the monetary series will be (a) biased relative to the elasticities by simultaneity and by the error that results from proxying physical output and capital with their monetary values; and (b) biased relative to the factor shares in value added as a result of a peculiar form of omitted variables bias. We show what these biases are and conclude that estimates of production functions obtained using monetary values are likely to be closer to the factor shares than to the factor elasticities. An alternative simulation that does not assume the existence of a physical production function confirms that estimates from the value data series will converge to the factor shares when cross-sectional variation in the factor prices is small. This is, again, the result of the fact that the estimated relationship is an approximation to the distributional accounting identity. |
| Keywords: | Endogeneity; Monetary Values; Physical Quantities; Production Functions |
| JEL: | C18 C81 C82 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1036 |
| By: | Hoy, Christopher Alexander; Kim, Yeon Soo; Imtiaz, Saad; Rojas Mendez, Ana Maria; Meyer, Moritz; Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier; Kim, Lydia; Seitz, William Hutchins; Helmy, Imane; Uochi, Ikuko; Touray, Sering; Singh, Juni; Sjahrir, Bambang Suharnoko; Pape, Utz Johann; Fuchs Tarlovsky, Alan; Nguyen, Trang Van; Gencer, Defne; Lee, Min A; Sagesaka, Akiko; Contreras, Ivette |
| Abstract: | Public opposition is a major barrier to economic reforms, such as subsidy removal. Using multilayered, randomized survey experiments with 10, 000 respondents across ten surveys in five countries, this paper shows that opposition to energy price reforms is shaped more by design and communication than by cost. Around 70 percent of respondents strongly opposed a 100 percent immediate price increase, but resistance was nearly halved when reforms were phased in, targeted at high-energy consumers, or paired with compensation. Informational messages also reduced opposition by as much as halving the price increase. An expert prediction survey revealed systematic misunderstandings: specialists underestimated the influence of design features and greatly misperceived coping strategies and compensation preferences. These findings demonstrate that behavioral biases—such as present bias, loss aversion, and fairness heuristics—are as influential as economic costs in shaping people’s opposition to economic reforms, underscoring the importance of careful design and communication of politically sensitive reforms. |
| Date: | 2025–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11233 |
| By: | Coleman Drake; Mark K. Meiselbach; Daniel Polsky |
| Abstract: | Enrollment in the Health Insurance Marketplaces created by the Affordable Care Act reached an all-time high of approximately 25 million Americans in 2025, roughly doubling since enhanced premium tax credit subsidies were made available in 2021. The scheduled expiration of enhanced subsidies in 2026 is estimated to leave over seven million Americans without health insurance coverage. Ten states have created supplemental Marketplace subsidies, yet little attention has been paid to how to best structure these subsidies to maximize coverage. Using administrative enrollment data from Maryland's Marketplace, we estimate demand for Marketplace coverage. Then, using estimated parameters and varying budget constraints, we simulate how to optimally allocate supplemental state premium subsidies to mitigate coverage losses from enhanced premium subsidy expiration. We find that premium sensitivity is greatest among enrollees with incomes below 200 percent of the federal poverty level, where the marginal effect of an additional ten dollars in monthly subsidies on the probability of coverage is approximately 6.5 percentage points, and decreases to roughly 2.5 percentage points above 200 percent FPL. Simulation results indicate that each 10 million dollars in annual state subsidies could retain roughly 5, 000 enrollees, though the cost-effectiveness of these subsidies falls considerably once all enrollees below 200 percent of the federal poverty level are fully subsidized. We conclude that states are well positioned to mitigate, but not stop, coverage losses from expanded premium tax credit subsidy expiration. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.13791 |
| By: | Yunqi Liu |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on job loss rates using the Global AI Content Impact Dataset (2020--2025). The panel comprises 200 industry-country-year observations across Australia, China, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom in ten industries. A three-stage ordinary least squares (OLS) framework is applied. First, a full-sample regression finds no significant linear association between AI adoption rate and job loss rate ($\beta \approx -0.0026$, $p = 0.949$). Second, industry-specific regressions identify the marketing and retail sectors as closest to significance. Third, interaction-term models quantify marginal effects in those two sectors, revealing a significant retail interaction effect ($-0.138$, $p |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.15885 |
| By: | Gregory Clark (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | A recent article in PNAS “The Inheritance of Social Status in England, 1600-1822” (Clark, 2023) argued that social status in England throughout these years showed a strong and stable pattern of inheritance. This pattern was consistent with the additive genetic inheritance of social abilities, in the presence of strong genetic assortment in these characteristics in parenting. This article has induced criticism that it committed “Hereditarian Fallacies” (Benning et al., 2023, 2024, 2025). Similar criticism also appeared in blog postings by the geneticist Sasha Gusev, and in Lala and Feldman, 2024, and Lala et al., 2025. This paper offers additional evidence for why patterns of status inheritance in England 1600-2022 are consistent with direct genetic inheritance, but not with cultural transmission of status. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational mobility, status inheritance, cultural transmission |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0285 |
| By: | L. Randall Wray; Eric Lin |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the relationship between government budget deficits and the growth rate of GDP. While orthodox economic theory offers several reasons to believe that growing deficits might be associated with slower growth, and would ultimately be unsustainable, Keynesians assert that deficits could stimulate growth--at least in the short run--implying the relation between deficits and growth could be positive. Modern Money Theory, adopting Godley's sectoral balance approach, Lerner's functional finance approach, and Minsky's theory of financial instability takes a more nuanced approach. Historical data for a number of countries is presented, showing that there is no obvious relation between the deficit ratio and economic growth over long time periods. However, there is a predictable path of the relationship over the course of the business cycle for all countries examined. |
| Keywords: | government budget deficit; deficit ratio; GDP growth rate; MMT; sectoral balance; functional finance; Wray curve; automatic stabilizer; Godley; Lerner |
| JEL: | F30 N10 N14 P16 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1055 |
| By: | Neha Bairoliya; Areendam Chanda; Jingyi Fang; Fang Yang |
| Abstract: | The canonical prediction of life-cycle models, that individuals smooth consumption over their lifetime, has been mostly tested for developed countries and found little empirical support. We provide a novel, developing country perspective by analyzing patterns of life-cycle consumption, income and savings rates in India. In contrast to the U.S., Indian households exhibit no growth in nondurable consumption expenditures after adjusting for family size. We present evidence that saving for lumpy investments in consumer durables is a key driver of high savings rates and flat nondurable consumption over the life cycle in India. |
| Keywords: | consumption; savings rate; demographics; life-cycle; durables; asset accumulation; household heterogeneity; panel data; pseudopanel; equivalence scales |
| JEL: | E21 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:101973 |
| By: | Grund, Christian (RWTH Aachen University); Nießen, Anna (RWTH Aachen University) |
| Abstract: | We explore the moderating role of job autonomy for the link between the use of performance appraisals and employees’ job satisfaction. Results based on German linked employer-employee panel data show that performance appraisals are linked to higher job satisfaction at moderate levels of job autonomy, whereas this positive relationship weakens at both low and high levels of autonomy. Moreover, the interplay between performance appraisals and job autonomy appears sensitive to broader institutional and contextual factors, such as the existence of employee representation, perceived job security, and design of the performance appraisals. Our findings highlight the complex role of job autonomy in shaping employee responses to performance management, underscoring the need for context-aware human resource practices. |
| Keywords: | job satisfaction, performance appraisals, job autonomy, German Linked Personnel Panel |
| JEL: | M12 M5 J28 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18191 |
| By: | Meisenbacher, Stephen; Nestorov, Svetlozar; Norlander, Peter |
| Abstract: | Data from online job postings are difficult to access and are not built in a standard or transparent manner. Data included in the standard taxonomy and occupational information database (O*NET) are updated infrequently and based on small survey samples. We adopt O*NET as a framework for building natural language processing tools that extract structured information from job postings. We publish the Job Ad Analysis Toolkit (JAAT), a collection of open-source tools built for this purpose, and demonstrate its reliability and accuracy in out-of-sample and LLM-as-judge testing. We extract more than 10 billion data points from more than 155 million online job ads provided by the National Labor Exchange (NLx) Research Hub, including O*NET tasks, occupation codes, tools, and technologies, as well as wages, skills, industry, and more features. We describe the construction of a dataset of occupation, state, and industry level features aggregated by monthly active jobs from 2015 – 2025. We illustrate the potential for research and future uses in education and workforce development. |
| Keywords: | Labor Market Information, Online Job Vacancies, NLP methods, ML, data transparency |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126336 |
| By: | Robert Petrunia (Lakehead University) |
| Abstract: | This presentation extends the literature on firm dynamics by incorporating ownership networks and financing in the study of firm growth. I observe co-ownership connections for the universe of privately owned Ecuadorian manufacturing firms between 2000 and 2019. The structure of my data allows to construct ownership network variables and determine their impact on firm growth in a quantile fixed-effect dynamic regression framework. This approach uncovers the heterogeneous impact of firm age on firm growth across the entire conditional firm-growth distributions and statistically significant leverage and network effects. The relationship between firm growth and leverage remains positive with the inclusion of ownership networks. For young firms, the results indicate that there is no significant relationship between age and growth. This result suggests that financial variables continue to matter and that ownership networks capture alternative aspects of firm dynamics that have not been previously acknowledged. |
| Date: | 2025–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:cand25:02 |
| By: | Laura Panza; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the grassroots of nation-building in times of mass migration. We study the emergence of cohesive communities and societal leadership within the scattered, diverse Jewish settlements of Mandatory Palestine between 1920 and 1947. Our empirical strategy relies on a new “frontier expansion†algorithm to predict the dynamics of Jewish settlement creation, which we combine with migrant characteristics in a shift-share design to isolate exogenous variation in the local composition of settlers across locations. We find that: (i) leaders who played a crucial role in shaping the early state of Israel emerged from diverse communities; (ii) these communities were more cohesive and maintained better relationships with Arab neighbors; and (iii) these effects are predominantly observed in kibbutzim, i.e., integrated settlements with communal lifestyle. Further evidence suggests that these diverse, tight-knit communities were facing and addressing nation-building challenges at a local level, e.g., setting up institutions to foster a shared identity. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/796 |
| By: | Szabó, Ágoston; Guðmundsson, Sævar; Myint, Thant |
| Abstract: | Life expectancy in Europe is influenced not only by socioeconomic conditions and healthcare system performance but also by government-led public health policies. This literature review examines the role of policy interventions in shaping longevity across European populations, focusing on measures such as smoking bans, alcohol regulations, obesity prevention programs, vaccination campaigns, and health promotion initiatives. Evidence indicates that proactive and evidence-based policies, particularly when integrated with equitable healthcare access and supportive social structures, contribute to measurable improvements in life expectancy and reductions in preventable mortality. The review also highlights gaps in current research, including the need for long-term evaluations, analyses of policy interactions, and assessments of equity in outcomes. Findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and public health practitioners seeking to design interventions that maximize longevity and promote health equity across European countries. |
| Keywords: | Public health policy, life expectancy, Europe, preventive interventions, health equity |
| JEL: | I30 |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126185 |
| By: | Tanweer Akram; Mahima Yadav |
| Abstract: | This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Swedish government bond (SGB) yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term SGB yields, after controlling for other macroeconomic and financial variables, such as consumer price inflation, the growth of industrial production, the stock price index, the exchange rate of the Swedish krona, and the balance sheet of Sweden’s central bank, Sveriges Riksbank. It applies an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach using monthly data to model SGB yields across the Treasury yield curve. The results of the estimated models show that the short-term interest rate has a marked influence on the long-term SGB yield. Such findings reaffirm John Maynard Keynes’s view that the central bank’s monetary policy affects long-term government bond yields through the current short-term interest rate. It also shows that the interest rate behavior observed in Sweden is in concordance with empirical patterns discerned in previous studies related to government bond yields in both advanced countries and emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | Swedish Government Bonds; Bond Yields; Short-term Interest Rate; Inflation; Sveriges Riksbank; Sweden |
| JEL: | E43 E50 E58 E60 G10 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1048 |
| By: | Baranski, Andrzej (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Reuben, Ernesto (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Riedl, Arno (Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | In a laboratory experiment, we study the role of fairness ideals as focal points in coordination problems in homogeneous and heterogeneous groups. We elicit the normatively preferred behavior about how a subsequent coordination game should be played. In homogeneous groups, people share a unique fairness ideal how to solve the coordination problem, whereas in heterogeneous groups, multiple conflicting fairness ideals prevail. In the coordination game, homogeneous groups are significantly more likely than their heterogeneous counterparts to sustain efficient coordination. The reason is that homogeneous groups coordinate on the unique fairness ideal, whereas heterogeneous groups disagree on the fairness ideal to be played. In both types of groups, equilibria consistent with fairness ideals are most stable. Hence, the difference in coordination success between homogeneous and heterogeneous groups occurs because of the normative disagreement in the latter types of group, making it much harder to reach an equilibrium at a fairness ideal. |
| Keywords: | cooperation, coordination, focal points, fairness ideals, experiment |
| JEL: | H41 C92 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18200 |
| By: | Phiri Kampanje, Brian |
| Abstract: | It is natural that gigantic projects attract intense scrutiny and constant evaluation. This is the case with the Shire Valley Transformation Programme (SVTP) which is currently USD520 million undertaking for both Phase I and II but Phase II costing will be determined in its project life running from 2018 through 2031. This study subjected SVTP to the basic SDGs Evaluation Model and it shows that there are so many gaps which must be addressed for the project to be SDGs compliant and have meaningful impact to Malawi and indeed its citizens. The sooner the observable deficiencies are addressed the better for Malawi. |
| Keywords: | Shire; Valley; Transformation; Malawi, SDGs |
| JEL: | H63 H69 Q15 Q18 Q19 |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126389 |
| By: | Ariel Dvoskin (Universidad Nacional de San Martín (UNSAM) y CONICET. San Martín, Argentina.); Germán Feldman (Universidad Nacional Arturo Jauretche (UNAJ) y CONICET. Buenos Aires, Argentina.); Gabriel Montes-Rojas (Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP). Buenos Aires, Argentina.) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies, both theoretically and empirically, the dynamics of profit rates of tradable and non-tradable goods in a small peripheral economy under exchange rate controls and parallel markets. It develops hypotheses about how official and parallel exchange rates affect sectoral profitability and provides empirical evidence using data from the Argentine experience. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate; Sectoral profitability; Argentina; Open economy |
| JEL: | E31 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:2024-88 |
| By: | Paglialunga, Elena; Resce, Giuliano; Zanoni, Angela |
| Abstract: | This paper predicts regional unemployment in the European Union by applying machine learning techniques to a dataset covering 198 NUTS-2 regions, 2000 to 2019. Tree-based models substantially outperform traditional regression approaches for this task, while accommodating reinforcement effects and spatial spillovers as determinants of regional labor market outcomes. Inflation—particularly energy-related—emerges as a critical predictor, highlighting vulnerabilities to energy shocks and green transition policies. Environmental policy stringency and eco-innovation capacity also prove significant. Our findings demonstrate the potential of machine learning to support proactive, place-sensitive interventions, aiming to predict and mitigate the uneven socioeconomic impacts of structural change across regions. |
| Keywords: | Regional unemployment; Inflation; Environmental policy; Spatial spillovers; Machine learning. |
| JEL: | E24 J64 Q52 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp25101 |
| By: | Volodymyr Riabov; Konstantin Tikhonov; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud |
| Abstract: | We compute exactly the overlap between the eigenvectors of two large empirical covariance matrices computed over intersecting time intervals, generalizing the results obtained previously for non-intersecting intervals. Our method relies on a particular form of Girko linearisation and extended local laws. We check our results numerically and apply them to financial data. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.25076 |
| By: | Victor Olkhov |
| Abstract: | We present the unified market-based description of returns and variances of the trades with shares of a particular security, of the trades with shares of all securities in the market, and of the trades with the market portfolio. We consider the investor who doesn't trade the shares of his portfolio he collected at time t0 in the past. The investor observes the time series of the current trades with all securities made in the market during the averaging interval. The investor may convert these time series into the time series that model the trades with all securities as the trades with a single security and into the time series that model the trades with the market portfolio as the trades with a single security. That establishes the same description of the returns and variances of the trades with a single security, the trades with all securities in the market, and the market portfolio. We show that the market-based variance, which accounts for the impact of random change of the volumes of consecutive trades with securities, takes the form of Markowitz's (1952) portfolio variance if the volumes of consecutive trades with all market securities are assumed constant. That highlights that Markowitz's (1952) variance ignores the effects of random volumes of consecutive trades. We compare the market-based variances of the market portfolio and of the trades with all market securities, consider the importance of the duration of the averaging interval, and explain the economic obstacles that limit the accuracy of the predictions of the returns and variances at best by Gaussian distributions. The same methods describe the returns and variances of any portfolio and the trades with its securities. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.13790 |
| By: | Yuqian Lu; Feng Hou |
| Abstract: | As the number of temporary foreign workers increases and more of these workers transition to permanent residency in Canada, provinces and territories—especially those with smaller populations—have been actively targeting foreign workers through immigration programs such as the Provincial Nominee Program as a strategy to attract and retain new immigrants (Picot, Hou & Crossman, 2024). However, there is limited knowledge regarding the retention rate of former temporary foreign workers in the province or territory where they were employed before immigrating, and how this retention rate varies among different types of temporary foreign workers and by province or territory. Such information is directly relevant to policy considerations related to the regionalization of immigration and the role of the transition from temporary to permanent residency. |
| Keywords: | temporary foreign worker, employement, immigration, work permit holders, permanent residency |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202401000002e |
| By: | Vaishali Garga; Edward P. Herbst; Alisdair McKay; Giovanni Nicolo; Matthias Paustian |
| Abstract: | We review the design and communication of monetary policy strategies that take into account risks and uncertainty. A key element in a robust monetary strategy is the concept of risk management, which is the weighing of key risks when setting policy. When risks to the outlook are balanced, the baseline outlook may be sufficient to guide policy decisions. However, risk-management considerations become important when risks are asymmetric. We discuss how robust simple interest rate rules and optimal control policy can incorporate risk-management considerations into the design of a monetary policy strategy. Alternative scenarios can illustrate salient risks and how monetary policy might respond if those risks were to materialize. However, using alternative scenarios in policy deliberations and communications requires important implementation choices. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty; Robust monetary policy strategies; risk management; scenario analysis; monetary policy communication |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:101949 |
| By: | Bertrand Crettez (Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas, LEMMA); Rabia Nessah (IESEG School of Management, UMR 9221 – LEM – Lille Economie Management, F-59000 Lille, France); Tarik Tazdaït (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | This paper weakens the notion of robust better-reply correspondence property introduced in [Reny, P. J. [2020] Nash equilibrium in discontinuous games, Annu. Rev. Econ. 12, 439–470] to prove the existence of pure strategy Nash equilibrium in compact convex discontinuous and possibly nonquasiconcave games. Our weakening of this property is satisfied by a large class of these games and our equilibrium existence results strictly generalize the most important ones in the literature, namely those obtained in [Reny, P. J. [2020] Nash equilibrium in discontinuous games, Annu. Rev. Econ. 12, 439–470; Reny, P. [2016b] Introduction to the symposium on discontinuous games, Econ. Theory 61, 423–429; Carmona, G. and Podczeck, K. [2016] Existence of Nash equilibrium in ordinal games with discontinuous preferences, Econ. Theory 61, 457–478] (in a special case), [Reny, P. [1999] On the existence of pure and mixed strategy Nash equilibria in discontinuous games, Econometrica 67, 1029–1056; McLennan, A., Monteiro, P. K. and Tourky, R. [2011] Games with discontinuous payoffs: A strengthening of Reny's existence theorem, Econometrica 79, 1643–1664; Barelli, P. and Meneghel, I. [2013] A note on the equilibrium existence problem in discontinuous games, Econometrica 81, 813–824; Nessah, R. [2011] Generalized weak transfer continuity and Nash equilibrium, J. Math. Econ. 47, 659–662; Nessah, R. and Tian, G. [2016] On the existence of Nash equilibrium in discontinuous games, Econ. Theory 61, 515–540]. |
| Keywords: | better-reply correspondence., discontinuous game, Nash equilibrium |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05305754 |
| By: | Anuj Bhowmik |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the characterizations of equilibrium in economies with public projects. Public goods, as discussed by Mas-Colell (1980), are modeled as elements of an abstract set lacking a unified ordering structure. We introduce the concepts of cost share equilibrium for such economies, where the private commodity space is a (possibly nonseparable) Banach lattice. Within this framework, we present two distinct characterizations of cost share equilibria via the veto power of the grand coalition in economies featuring finitely many agents. The first characterization involves allocations that are Aubin non-dominated, while the second establishes that an allocation is a cost share equilibrium if and only if it cannot be dominated by the grand coalition, where domination is considered under specific perturbations of initial endowments. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.24437 |
| By: | Wilhelmsson, Mats (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether neighbourhoods in Stockholm that became more mixed in housing tenure between 2015 and 2023 also experienced increased income diversity. Using data for 1, 287 neighbourhoods, the analysis applies entropy-based diversity indices, two-way fixed-effects models, and staggered difference-in-differences estimators. The results show a small but statistically significant positive impact: neighbourhoods with increasing tenure diversity get small gains in income diversity. The effect is context-dependent and more pronounced in urban settings, areas dominated by home ownership, and lower-income neighbourhoods. Changes in educational and population diversity are more related to income diversity than to shifts in household type or citizenship. In general, the findings suggest that while tenure diversification can support income mixing, its impact remains limited without complementary housing and equity policies. |
| Keywords: | income diversity; housing tenure; mixed-tenure neighbourhoods; entropy |
| JEL: | R21 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2025_012 |
| By: | Caio Vilella; Eduardo F. Bastian |
| Abstract: | Minsky (1965) has presented the Job Guarantee program as a recommendation in the war against unemployment and poverty. Kalecki (1943), on the other hand, argued that the full employment situation could be technically feasible but politically hard to implement due to the class struggle, resulting in what we will refer to as the "kaleckian dilemma." Based on this contradiction, this paper aims to extract lessons from the Rehn-Meidner Swedish plan, which successfully combined low unemployment rates and creeping inflation for over three decades, as a means to study the chances of a Job Guarantee overcoming the kaleckian dilemma. From these lessons, this piece highlights the importance of a tripartite council bargaining board at the national level to settle the Job Guarantee’s wage level. In addition, we highly recommended other desirable features, such as international capital control and taxation on extraordinary profits, to raise the chances of the program successfully dealing with the kaleckian dilemma, just as Rehn-Meidner did. Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 10, November 2023. |
| Keywords: | Kaleckian dilemma; Job Guarantee; Rehn-Meidner plan |
| JEL: | E11 E31 H53 I30 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1066 |
| By: | Valentin Bolotnyy; Natalia Emanuel; Pim Welle |
| Abstract: | Every state in the country has a law permitting involuntary hospitalization if a person presents a danger to themselves or others as a result of mental illness. If a person reaches this high bar, the logic goes, they should be confined in a psychiatric hospital for treatment until they are stabilized. (The process is also sometimes called involuntary commitment, involuntary psychiatric hold, or sectioning.) Although there is no definitive national accounting, it is estimated that about 1.2 million involuntary psychiatric hospitalizations occur every year (Lee and Cohen 2021). This puts the magnitude on par with the 1.2 million individuals imprisoned in state, federal, and military prisons every year (Carson 2022). In a new Staff Report, we use data from Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, to measure how psychiatric commitments are impacting an individual’s risk of danger to themselves or others, earnings, and housing. |
| Keywords: | involuntary hospitalization; mental health; psychiatric treatment |
| JEL: | I10 |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:101943 |
| By: | Oriana Bandiera; Ananya Kotia; Ilse Lindenlaub; Christian Moser; Andrea Prat |
| Abstract: | We study the micro sources and macro consequences of worker–job matching across countries with large income differences. Using internationally comparable data on over 120, 000 individuals in 30 countries, we document that workers' skills align more closely with their jobs' skill requirements in higher-income countries, indicative of more meritocratic labor market matching. We interpret this fact through an equilibrium matching model with cross-country differences in three fundamentals: (i) endowments of worker skills and job requirements determining match feasibility; (ii) technology determining the returns to matching; and (iii) idiosyncratic frictions capturing how nonproductive traits affect matching. A development-accounting exercise based on the model, estimated separately for each country, shows that variation in matching frictions explains only a small share of cross-country output gaps. However, improved worker–job matching substantially amplifies the gains from adopting frontier endowments and technology. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional skills, sorting, matching, misallocation, development accounting |
| JEL: | E24 J24 O11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12208 |
| By: | Masaaki Fujii (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | In this work, we combine the mean-field game theory with the classical idea of binomial tree framework, pioneered by Sharpe and Cox, Ross & Rubinstein, to solve the equilibrium price formation problem for the stock. For agents with exponential utilities and recursive utilities of exponential type, we prove the existence of a unique mean-field equilibrium and derive an explicit formula for equilibrium transition probabilities of the stock price by restricting its trajectories onto a binomial tree. The agents are subject to stochastic terminal liabilities and incremental endowments, both of which are dependent on unhedgeable common and idiosyncratic factors, in addition to the stock price path. Finally, we provide numerical examples to illustrate the qualitative effects of these components on the equilibrium price distribution. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2025cf1261 |
| By: | Kendall, Will; Cirigo Jimenez, Rodrigo; Gogescu, Fiona; Rivera, Carla |
| Abstract: | Dr Alina-Sandra Cucu is an interdisciplinary scholar in the field of global labour studies and currently a research fellow at the Institute for Cultural Inquiry in Berlin. Her research has addressed Eastern and Central European labour relations, socialism and the post-1990 transformations in the former Soviet bloc, knowledge production in industrial settings, and histories of planning. In this wide-ranging interview Alina discusses her academic formation at the Central European University, the challenges of doing interdisciplinary research, and the role of history in her work, amongst other topics. |
| Keywords: | interdisciplinarity; history; ethnography; global labour studies; Romania |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2023–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129799 |
| By: | Ana Alicia Dipierri |
| Abstract: | The agri-food system stands at a crossroads: by 2050, the global population is expected to reach 9.7 billion, necessitating a 50-60% increase in food output (Alexandratos & Bruinsma, 2012; Falcon et al. 2022; Grafton et al. 2015; Makuvaro et al. 2018). These challenges will exacerbate the already critical situation, with 673 million people suffering from hunger (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO, 2025), 890 million people being obese, and 2.5 billion overweight (World Health Organization, 2025), while over 2 billion people across the globe are experiencing micronutrient malnutrition (Passarelli et al. 2024). Simultaneously, the agri- food sector is currently responsible for nearly one-third of the total greenhouse gas emissions (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2020; Smith et al. 2019). These interconnected challenges underscore a systemic crisis and an urgent need for a profound transformation of the agri-food system toward sustainability, ensuring ongoing access to nutritious food for current and future generations. My dissertation, “Behavioral and managerial changes towards sustainable development in the food system”, examines sustainability in the agri-food sector as a collective goal that requires prioritizing long-term societal interest over short-term individual gains. I do this through the lens of Collective Action Theory.My research approach is pragmatic in nature (Morgan, 2007; Shannon-Baker, 2016). For instance, I selected research methods based on their usefulness for understanding and explaining my research question. This principle led me to employ a mixed-methods approach (Kaushik & Walsh, 2019), which allowed me to understand the complex cooperation problems within the agri-food sector across two real-world arenas: communal irrigation systems in Argentina and the corporate sector in Belgium. In Argentina, I explored real-world social dilemmas associated with communal irrigation systems through a framed field experiment with small-scale farmers. To replicate real conditions, I adapted an experimental setting (Anderies et al. 2013), in collaboration with local actors (government officials and technicians), and conducted several pilot tests with students. While the framed field experiment provided me with rich behavioral data, the post-experimental surveys, semi-structured in-depth interviews, and non-participatory observations uncovered qualitative and relational aspects. Meanwhile, in Belgium, a nationwide survey mapped the ecological responsiveness motives of the corporate sector and assessed the ability of explanatory variables to predict them. I developed this survey in collaboration with the corporate sector and refined it through several pilot testing rounds involving colleagues and representatives from firms to ensure it reflects corporate pro- environmental motivations. Overall, this methodological design reflects my interest in linking theory with practice by co-producing the methodological instruments with those involved in xivreal-world problems (small-scale farmers and firms) and conducting several pilot tests to ensure a realistic representation.Aligned with this methodological grounding, I am very interested in working with grassroots organizations, such as water associations or cooperatives, and key actors in the agri-food system who have the leverage to reduce the sector’s ecological footprint. During the fieldwork, I assumed several roles (facilitator of the experiments, observer of their realities, and translator of complex contexts), but always honored the local, grounded knowledge that informs this dissertation by maintaining an analytical distance.Complementing this practical focus, ethics and values are central to my research approach. To this end, I obtained informed consent from all informants (small-scale farmers and firm representatives) (Singer & Couper, 2010) and provided fair compensation to those who invested significant time during data collection (small-scale farmers in the experimental sessions) (Harrison & List, 2004). Furthermore, consistent with the dissertation’s ethical standards, all data were kept confidential and reported only in aggregated form or with coded informants’ details (no personal data was revealed).My dissertation can be considered systemic for several reasons. First, it is problem-driven and guided by a real-world problem (Bergmann et al. 2021; Zucca et al. 2021). Second, methodological decisions are based on the best-fit principle to address the research question, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative methods (Helgheim, van der Linden & Teryokhin, 2024). Third, I designed the research questions to advance theory development through a hypothesis-testing approach, using triangulated information to serve this purpose. Fourth, I engaged many actors in the dissertation development to account for the diverse voices and inputs, thereby improving the realism and quality of the data gathered. To this end, I consulted with government officials and technicians to adapt the experimental setting, students to test the experimental adaptations, colleagues and firms’ representatives to test the survey structure, small-scale farmers and firm representatives to collect the information (Norström et al. 2020). Lastly, but not least, my supervision committee broadened my understanding of the problem through their areas of expertise (econometric, psychological, and sustainability) in addition to behavioral and managerial economics (Bergmann et al. 2021; Jahn, Bergmann & Keil, 2012). Thus, the systemic approach permeates all aspects of my dissertation, from problem development to academic supervision.From this systematic foundation, and through three empirical studies, my dissertation presents robust evidence in support of my main argument: collective action is crucial to overcoming the challenges of food sustainability. In the first chapter, I demonstrate that while institutional robustness is crucial for overcoming uncertainty, individual and group dynamics, along withxvtheir features, also play a significant role. In Chapter 2, I demonstrate that while institutions and networks help overcome classical common-pool resource social dilemmas in an asymmetric setting under uncertainty, trust does not seem to have this capacity. Finally, in Chapter 3, I demonstrate that ecological responsiveness motives vary among firms and that certain demographic and motivational variables may have predictive capacity.To organize these findings, my dissertation follows a typical cumulative dissertation structure. The reader will find an extensive introduction that disentangles the problem at stake, outlines the research question, presents the guiding hypothesis, and includes a relevant literature review and the methodological approach. Later, the dissertation continues with a discussion of the three evidence-based research studies I conducted. These are:Chapter 1 - The role of institutional robustness in a collective action dilemma under environmental variations.Chapter 2 - Does uncertainty lead to cooperation or competition in collective action? The role of social capital.Chapter 3 - Firms’ ecological responsiveness motivations: are internal and external drives of pro-environmental initiatives and key firm features potential predictors?My dissertation concludes by synthesizing key findings, providing policy guidance based on these novel insights, and encouraging future researchers to explore collective action research further. Key methodological contributions—including the development of methodological tools, detailed protocols, surveys, and interview guides—are available in the appendices to aid future comparative research across diverse contexts.As you began reading, I would like to take a moment to express my gratitude for your interest in my work. I hope my dissertation earns the time you will invest in reading it. |
| Keywords: | sustainability; agri-food sector; institutional robustness; social capital; ecological responsiveness; food sustainability |
| Date: | 2025–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/395398 |
| By: | Julian Kozlowski; Nicholas Sullivan |
| Abstract: | The convenience yield reflects the value that investors place on the liquidity and safety of U.S. Treasuries. Three different measures indicate this yield has fallen in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Treasuries; convenience yield; credit spreads; corporate bonds |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:101940 |
| By: | Jameaba, Muyanja Ssenyonga |
| Abstract: | Today’s financial institutions have to adapt to changing business environment, increasingly demanding and differentiated customer preferences, and digitalization and technological changes. Using a documentary analysis approach, the article navigates the implications of the adoption of distributed ledger technology (BCT) on functions and performance of the general banking sector and financial system stability. Results underscore the role of DLT adoption in fundamentally changing the financial service development and delivery landscape, operations, providers, regulatory regime, and performance. DLT adoption is envisaged to trigger the entry of new non-bank providers, facilitate the development of collaborative financial innovations and operations, adoption of new business models that support open banking principles, maintain the leveraging of Big Data and data analytics. Consequently, banks have a diversified customer base, strengthened capacity and capabilities to leverage customer experience , fostering the development and deployment of financial innovations that bolster competitiveness. Moreover, DLT adoption has the potential to enhance the integrity and authenticity of financial service delivery, reduce vulnerability to cyber insecurity and financial fraud, foster decentralized authentication of financial transactions, increase operational efficiency, lower compliance cost, shorten onboarding of new product offers and customers, accelerate new product development and deployment. Moreover, DLT adoption enables traditional banks to protect their interest and non-interest income sources from new and nimbler players, bolsters banks’ financial intermediation and monetary policy transmission functions, widens banks’ ability to provide wealth custodianship services, fosters the provision of financial payments services to wider, diversified and transboundary clientele, and strengthen bank’s role in maintaining financial system stability |
| Keywords: | Blockchain, CBDC, crypto assets, digitalization, Fintechs, emerging technologies, open banking, P2P lending |
| JEL: | E52 G21 G28 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126280 |
| By: | Chaisse, Julien |
| Abstract: | Most investment projects are governed by contracts that allow investors but not governments to pursue arbitration. This Perspective proposes a model clause to restore symmetry, enabling states to initiate binding ICSID or PCA proceedings under state contracts. It highlights Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia's experiences and provides a practical template. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:329927 |