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on Investment |
| By: | Snell, Andy (University of Edinburgh); Almeida, Enzo (University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto); Martins, Pedro (Nova School of Business and Economics); Thomas, Jonathan (University of Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | How are incumbent workers impacted by minimum wage increases? Is labour market concentration an important moderating factor? We address these questions by presenting a new model, drawing on comprehensive employer-employee matched panel data from Portugal, and considering individual mandated wage rises from both national and collectively bargained minimum wages. We find that employment protection plays a key role in these effects: workers under permanent contracts are almost completely insulated from the exit hazards associated with wage bites while workers in temporary (fixed-term) contracts are exposed to these hazards. Labour concentration can significantly reduce negative effects on temporary workers, by up to 60\%. A model of monopsonistic competition with firing costs rationalises these patterns. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, collective bargaining, temporary contracts, labour market power |
| JEL: | J23 J38 J42 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18914 |
| By: | Erol Taymaz (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Kamil Yılmaz (Department of Economics, Koç University, İstanbul, Turkiye) |
| Abstract: | The employment effect of a minimum-wage increase depends on the wage-setting power of employers. The empirical literature, however, has measured this power only indirectly, through labor-market concentration. In this paper, we estimate firm-level product markups and wage markdowns for Turkish manufacturing firms using the Entrepreneur Information System (EIS) administrative micro-data. We show that a firm’s initial markdown predicts the sign and magnitude of its direct employment response to minimum-wage increases, including the exceptionally large January 2016 increase (33% nominal, ≈25% real). At minimum-wage firms with no markdown, employment falls year after year. At high-markdown firms that face the same wage floor, employment does not fall. The monopsony model can explain this difference, whereas the competitive model predicts employment losses for both groups of firms. Among firms paying the minimum wage, employment growth increases with the initial markdown in every year over 2013–2019: conditional on sector-year and province-year effects, high-markdown minimum-wage firms grow 6 to 9 log points faster annually than zero-markdown firms paying the same wage. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, monopsony, labor market power, markdowns, markups, employment, production function estimation, Turkey |
| JEL: | D24 J23 J31 J38 J42 L11 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:2605 |
| By: | Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Prasanth C. (Christ (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether AI adoption has induced structural changes in the determinants of Indian sovereign bond yields across the maturity spectrum. The rapid global adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in times of macroeconomic turmoil, particularly generative AI technologies since late 2022, has prompted intense debate about its potential macroeconomic consequences, including the measurement issues. Using monthly data from 2000 to 2025 and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models augmented with an AI dummy variable and slope interactions on expected inflation and broad money (M3) growth, we identify significant regime shifts. Results indicate that in the post-AI period, longer-maturity yields exhibit markedly reduced sensitivity to expected inflation and money supply growth. This dampening is statistically significant, with interaction terms largely offsetting baseline positive elasticities. By contrast, short-term yields (91-day Treasury bills) show heightened inflation sensitivity in the AI era, while intermediate yields display mixed patterns. These findings are consistent with theoretical predictions that AI-driven productivity gains could lower equilibrium real interest rates and weaken traditional monetary transmission channels at the long end of the yield curve. For an emerging market like India, where inflation expectations have historically influenced borrowing costs, such changes may enhance monetary policy independence but complicate fiscal-monetary coordination. The paper contributes to the sparse empirical literature on AI’s financial market implications in emerging economies. Policy implications include the need for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to recalibrate forward guidance and liquidity operations in light of evolving yield dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign bond yields ; artificial intelligence ; ARDL bounds testing ; structural change ; monetary transmission ; India |
| JEL: | E43 E44 O33 G12 C22 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:26/450 |
| By: | Hattori, Keisuke; Yoshikawa, Takeshi |
| Abstract: | Entry is commonly thought to harm incumbents in Cournot markets. This paper shows that this need not hold under coopetition. We analyze a two-stage Cournot oligopoly where symmetric firms first invest non-cooperatively in shared demand-expanding activities with non-excludable benefits and then compete in quantities. With convex production costs, entry can increase individual-firm profits despite intensified competition. We further show that this non-monotonicity can create a low-entry trap: no firm enters even though an active equilibrium would be profitable for firms and beneficial to consumers. Because the active equilibrium is self-sustaining, a finite one-time "big push" that assembles a critical mass of entrants suffices to escape the trap-whereas in a standard monotone market with unprofitable monopoly entry, every entrant would require support. The push can be implemented through transitional entry subsidies or coordinated public "seed" investment in the shared activity, and we characterize which instrument is cheaper and when each pays for itself in total surplus. |
| Keywords: | Coopetition, Profit-increasing entry, Critical mass, Low-entry trap, Cournot oligopoly |
| JEL: | D43 L13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:343408 |
| By: | Hanić Sućeska, Azra |
| Abstract: | Salaries of employees are one of the ethically most sensitive issues in human resource management, precisely because salaries can meet a whole spectrum of human needs. The basic ethical principles in salary distribution are fairness and equality. The application of these principles is facilitated by objective criteria. The work shows that regular salary payments are an ethical principle that is more important than the amount itself, or the distribution of salaries, relying on Adams' theory of equity, which postulates that salaries should be equivalent to the effort, knowledge, skills, and results achieved, but also fair in relation to other employees. The application of these principles of equivalence and fairness can only be ensured by clear criteria and procedures known in advance as the "rules of the game, " which determine the expectations of the employees. The aim of the research is to answer the research question of whether and to what extent the prevailing practices of determining salaries in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina can be assessed as ethical based on the application of ethical arguments, through the analysis of these practices from a business ethics perspective. The research was conducted on a sample of 325 respondents, of which 208 are from Serbia and the remaining 117 are from Bosnia and Herzegovina. A survey method was used to collect primary data. The SPSS statistical program was used to process the obtained results. Basic methods of descriptive statistical analysis, causality tests, factor analysis, and other multivariate analysis techniques were used to test the main hypothesis. The results of the research confirmed the initial assumptions that employee salaries are determined based on an established system that is known to all employees, but also that there is a low level of application of ethical principles in the distribution of salaries. |
| Keywords: | business ethics, ethical principles, salaries, HRM, management |
| JEL: | M14 M20 M54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343419 |
| By: | Saba Anwar (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Bilal Aftab (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Muhammad Zaman (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Introduction The road safety landscape in Pakistan is marked by poor road conditions, laxity in traffic law implementation and widespread culture of risky driving habits. These are aggravated by lack of law enforcement, rampant corruption and scarcity of resources. In addition, the use of outdated vehicles lacking necessary safety features… |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2026:144 |
| By: | Bonin, Simone Maria (Danmarks Nationalbank and Aarhus University); Gorshkov, Andrei (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | We study the transmission of firm-specific export shocks through labor markets, examining how these shocks influence workers’ wages at competing firms via labor market competition. Using rich Danish administrative data, a flexible, empirically driven definition of workers’ outside options, and an identification strategy based on world import demand shocks, we show that both own-firm and competitor export shocks raise incumbent workers’ wages. These export-driven shocks also trigger competitive worker reallocation, as expanding exporters poach workers from other firms. The results indicate spillover effects of export shocks extending to non-exporting firms. |
| Keywords: | labour market competition; export shocks; worker outside options |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_016 |
| By: | Valentina Michelangeli (Bank of Italy); Silvia Sacco (IVASS); Valentino Bado (Bank of Italy); Valeria De Chiara (Bank of Italy); Ginette Eramo (Bank of Italy); Francesco Ficarola (IVASS); Irene Mavilia (Bank of Italy); Claudia Miani (Bank of Italy); Ivan Quaglia (Bank of Italy); Giuseppe Reale (Bank of Italy); Francesco Sciarretta (IVASS); Riccardo Scimone (Bank of Italy); Laura Sigalotti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the structure and evolution of the Italian financial system over the period 2019-2025 using a multilayer network framework that captures interconnections across financial institutions and instruments. The network has a bank-centred core, with insurance companies acting as intermediate connectors and investment funds forming a broad periphery. Although the overall number of institutions remains broadly stable, sectoral dynamics diverge, as consolidations among banks and insurers are offset by the expansion of the investment fund sector. While individual layers have distinct topological characteristics, cross-sector linkages account for a growing share of total connections, underscoring their increasing role in shock transmission. Despite its sparse structure, the network exhibits small-world properties, implying a rapid contagion potential. Consolidation episodes are associated with temporary but meaningful structural shifts, while the network's overall architecture remains remarkably stable over time. |
| Keywords: | banks, insurers, investment funds, interconnections, network analysis |
| JEL: | G21 G22 G23 G18 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1049_26 |
| By: | Lukas-Benedikt Fiechtner; Jose Blanchet |
| Abstract: | We study strategic trading around index reconstitution in a continuous-time, multiasset game with transient cross-asset price impact and heterogeneous beliefs about future index membership. Opportunistic traders position before a public announcement, adjust to the revealed composition, and trade around an indexer following a prescribed execution schedule. Under a no-price-manipulation condition, we construct a subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium on every finite horizon. The affine feedback policies are computed from a non-standard matrix Riccati equation and linear ordinary differential equations whose number and dimensions do not grow with the number of traders. Aggregate inventories and price impact depend on beliefs only through the population-average belief, while differences in beliefs affect individual inventory positions. Under mean-field scaling, we construct a mean-field equilibrium and obtain quantitative convergence and approximate-Nash bounds. Numerical illustrations show how competition and impact decay determine the balance between adverse price displacement from anticipatory trading and savings in the indexer's execution costs when opportunists trade against its orders during implementation. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.15901 |
| By: | Hubert Tchakoute Tchuigoua |
| Abstract: | The microfinance sector, with its diverse ownership structures and distinctive capital structure, provides a unique setting to examine cross-country differences in financial reporting practices. However, research on how the legal enforcement environment affects the financial reporting quality of development finance organizations, such as microfinance institutions (MFIs), remains limited. This study hypothesizes that higher financial reporting quality is associated with earnings that are less subject to earnings management. We assess financial reporting quality using abnormal loan loss provisions as a proxy for earnings management. Analyzing a global dataset of MFI financial statements spanning 15 years (2003–2017), we find that financial reporting quality is higher in weaker legal enforcement environments. This suggests that when enforcement is weak, investors rely less on accounting information, leading to less earnings management and higher financial reporting quality. In addition, our results suggest that for-profit MFIs and those less dependent on subsidies engage in less upward earnings management in weak enforcement environments. |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/413359 |
| By: | Sang-Seung Yi |
| Abstract: | Qualcomm's No License, No Chips policy let it levy a royalty surcharge on every handset, whether or not it used a Qualcomm modem chip. In FTC v. Qualcomm, the Ninth Circuit reversed the district court after accepting Qualcomm's argument that, because the surcharge did not vary with the chip, it was "chip neutral" and left handset makers' choices undistorted. I develop an equilibrium model of the modem chip market and show the defense to be wrong: the surcharge's facial neutrality does not imply economic neutrality. For per handset surcharges, a surcharge and an equal government tax affect the rival's pricing identically, but not Qualcomm's: a tax is remitted to the Treasury, whereas Qualcomm collects the surcharge -- including on handsets using a rival's chip. Raising its own price therefore yields Qualcomm a smaller gain under the surcharge (the surcharge it collects on the demand diverted to the rival) than under the tax (the tax it avoids on its own lost sales), because the diversion ratio is less than one. Under the very conditions that would make a tax chip neutral, the surcharge raises the rival's all in price by strictly more than Qualcomm's -- and, under symmetric demand, lowers its output by more as well -- tilting handset makers toward Qualcomm. For ad valorem surcharges, the defense fails for a different reason: even a non discriminatory tax is generically chip neutral only if the FRAND royalty rate is zero, so the argument's premise itself does not hold. I also analyze discriminatory surcharges. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.18161 |
| By: | Simmons, Sally Sonia; Hagan, John Elvis; Nieto-Gonzalez, Imanol L.; Schack, Thomas |
| Abstract: | (1) Background: Whether spatial predictive patterns in non-communicable disease mortality persist after accounting for socio-demographic development and biomarkers remains understudied in East Africa. (2) Methods: This study used heterogeneous graph transformer (HGT) models and other techniques to model spatial patterns in cause- and sex/age-specific mortality (hypertensive heart disease [HHD], ischaemic heart disease [IHD], stroke, and diabetes), incorporating risk factors and socio-demographic development (SDI), using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, 1990–2023, across Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. (3) Results: HGT achieved higher performance than OLS spatial lag benchmarks (R2 0.948–0.970 vs. 0.194–0.376). Spatial predictive patterns were disease-specific. Stroke was the only disease with consistent positive spatial structure (SDI-only: 0.645%, 95% CI [0.380, 0.907]), with spatial structure strengthening after 2015. HHD exhibited severe and stable degradation (Risk-only: −137.892%, 95% CI [−181.908, −96.380]), driven by the interaction between metabolic risk covariates and geographic adjacency. Diabetes showed consistently severe degradation (SDI + Risk: −201.941%, 95% CI [−257.349, −150.082]). IHD patterns were weak and unstable. Sex disaggregation revealed stronger stroke spatial signals, indicating latent sex-specific patterns masked by aggregation. GBD measurement uncertainty contributed less than 0.025% of result variance, with model randomness dominating. (4) Conclusions: Spatial predictive patterns in NCD mortality in East Africa are disease-specific. Stroke shows emerging cross-border spatial structure after 2015, while HHD and diabetes reflect country-specific determinants. Sex-disaggregated graph construction reveals latent spatial heterogeneity invisible to aggregate models, supporting disease-specific, sex-stratified regional health strategies. |
| Keywords: | East Africa;cause-specific mortality;deep learning;diabetes;heterogeneous graph transformers;hypertensive heart disease;ischaemic heart disease;metabolic risk factors;non-communicable diseases;socio-demographic index;spatial predictive patterns;stroke |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140878 |
| By: | Samson Gebrerufael (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically evaluates the technological learning trajectory models of Porcile et al. (2023) across African countries categorized into three institutional regimes: developmental (Ethiopia, Mauritius, Rwanda), conflicting claims (Ghana, Kenya, Namibia, Tunisia), and neoliberal (Seychelles, South Africa). Using panel ARDL modeling, the study investigates the impact of real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciation on technological learning-by-doing, proxied by the growth rate of export income elasticity (GIEX). The results show no significant learning effects in the developmental regime due to immediate equilibrium adjustment and insignificant coefficients of REER depreciation. The conflicting claims regime demonstrates the same results, driven by low-complexity export baskets. Conversely, the neoliberal regime achieves a relatively persistent short-lived technological learning. However, its long-run REER growth coefficient is negative, confirming that over-reliance on price competitiveness retards long-run growth per Thirlwall's law. Ultimately, state failure hinders heavy intervention regimes in Africa, whereas moving toward the neoliberal framework yields better short-run learning outcomes. |
| Keywords: | technological learning-by-doing, REER depreciation, income elasticity of exports, developmental regimes, state failure |
| JEL: | F13 F41 F14 O47 O11 O33 O30 O43 P48 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202625 |
| By: | Ángel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | En los últimos años, la Administración española ha realizado un importante esfuerzo para mejorar y documentar las herramientas de modelización que utiliza para proyectar los gastos e ingresos del sistema público de pensiones y analizar el impacto de posibles reformas normativas. Con el ánimo de contribuir al esfuerzo colectivo para mejorar la calidad de estos instrumentos y su accesibilidad para un público lo más amplio posible, en la presente nota se ofrece en primer lugar una breve exposición de los modelos relevantes que busca ayudar al lector a entender tanto su lógica como sus limitaciones. Seguidamente, se avanzan algunas recomendaciones para reforzar la documentación que se ofrece a los lectores y para seguir mejorando el diseño de estos modelos de una forma que aumente su utilidad para el análisis de los efectos de cambios de política. Se propone, en particular, 1) documentar en mucho más detalle cómo se construyen las estimaciones del impacto de la reforma sobre los patrones de jubilación y 2) priorizar el desarrollo de modelos de equilibrio con comportamiento endógeno. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2026-08 |
| By: | Aaron P. Kaye; Kazimier Smith; Neil Thompson; Aaron Kaye |
| Abstract: | We characterize the lifecycles of open-weight AI models using a weekly panel of the 108, 074 most-downloaded models on Hugging Face, which together account for 99.5 percent of the platform's more than 53 billion downloads. We link these data to token usage from OpenRouter and performance rankings from Arena and Artificial Analysis. We establish key institutional details about the supply of and demand for AI models, and we organize our analysis into three phases: birth, life, and death. In the "birth" phase, we show that major developers often release models in batches, concurrently introducing models that are both vertically differentiated (e.g., by size, capability, and latency) and horizontally differentiated (e.g., by task specialization, hardware compatibility, and alignment). Because weights are open, developers can also build on one another's models. We document cumulative innovation through fine-tuned, quantized, merged and adapted descendants of source models. In the "life" phase, we quantify how demand evolves after release. Even within the sample of top models, demand is concentrated, and the concentration persists: the median model loses ∼68 percent of its release-week downloads within ten weeks, while the most popular models decline gradually; as a result, the top percentile's advantage over the median model is ∼600-fold at release, and ∼900-fold six months later. Further, we estimate spillover effects from new popular model releases on related models and find that the first popular third-party descendant is associated with a 76 to 99 percent increase in weekly downloads of its source model. In the "death" phase, we construct measures of technical obsolescence and usage obsolescence. We find that technical obsolescence is associated with a slow but persistent decrease in demand, while usage obsolescence coincides with an immediate but temporary drop in demand. Our findings characterize open-weight AI as a market of complementary model portfolios, one in which third-party developers building on a source model can raise demand for the original, and in which demand is slow to respond to technical obsolescence. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, open-source, open-weights, technology diffusion, platform economics, cumulative innovation |
| JEL: | O33 L17 L86 O31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13004 |
| By: | Beltrán-Hernández, Andrés (Universidad Católica del Norte); Lufin, Marcelo |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the key determinants shaping the dynamic relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in 220 European NUTS2 regions from 2000 to 2021, using a bivariate latent growth curve model (BLGM). Unlike traditional methods, the BLGM framework addresses a critical gap in modeling latent growth processes, variable interactions, and regional heterogeneity, significantly advancing previous methodologies. The approach integrates determinants of regional economic structures, energy consumption patterns, labor market characteristics, and educational attainment. The results highlight the crucial role of financial structure, spatial centrality, and educated development, offering insights for adaptive and effective regional climate and sustainability strategies and emphasizing the need for coordinated policies that integrate technological innovation, territorial planning, labor market diversification, and sustained investment in education. |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:83jf6_v1 |
| By: | Dmitry Aldokhin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Anton Belyakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation Author-Name: Elena Deryugina Author-Email: DeryuginaEB@cbr.ru Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation Author-Name: Alexey Ponomarenko Author-Email: PonomarenkoAA@cbr.ru Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | We model the deposit market, where commercial banks compete using deposit interest rates, and depositors initially distributed among banks, when switching to another bank, bear the exogenous switching costs associated with a lack of information and money transfer fee. We consider both discrete and continuous distribution of depositors over switching costs and find equilibria in pure strategies. The theoretical model in hand allows us to explain the empirically observed negative relation between the size of a bank and its weighted average deposit rate. We show that this dependence may be the result of the history of the banking market formation. Initially, established banks could manage to obtain a majority of depositors with high switching costs, while depositors with low costs could be lost to newly emerging banks. Because of this, previously established banks can set lower deposit rates without fear that their depositors will switch to competitors, and maintain a large share of all depositors in the market. It follows from the analysis that the division of large banks into smaller ones will not lead to an increase in their deposit interest rates, but on the contrary, may even increase discrimination against depositors with high transition costs. It is the reduction of depositors’ switching costs that makes banks to raise deposit rates and thus increase public welfare. |
| Keywords: | : banks, deposits, switching costs, Nash equilibrium, equilibrium in secure strategies, welfare |
| JEL: | D42 D43 D60 E58 G21 L13 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wp_151 |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo; di Molfetta, Mauro; Notarnicola, Valeria; Trotta, Maria Giovanna; Plantamura, Antonio Volpe |
| Abstract: | Almost everything known about equity rounds in young firms comes from the records of professional investors, so the evidence is selected on the presence of an intermediary. We read rounds instead from the share-premium reserve, a compulsory, disclosed and restricted line of the Italian statutory balance sheet, for 3, 225 certified innovative SMEs over 2016–2025: 2, 991 priced capital increases on 1, 330 firms. Firms about to raise grew twice as fast in the preceding year and held identical cash, yet six in ten closed it at a loss; profitability falls and intangible assets rise only after the round. Seven panel estimators place the association across firms and not within them; a taxonomy estimated blind to the event finds the mechanism in all five financial configurations, with incidence differing eightfold; six flexible learners fail to improve on the linear specification. Selection operates on growth, not on profitability, a distinction intermediated samples cannot see. |
| Date: | 2026–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:84cj7_v1 |
| By: | Schmal, Wolfgang Benedikt |
| Abstract: | Im Schienenpersonenfernverkehr entstehen zunehmend neue Angebote auf nachfragestarken Verbindungen. Diese Entwicklung ist wettbewerbspolitisch zu begrüßen. Sie legt aber ein institutionelles Problem offen: Der Zugang zu besonders attraktiven Trassen ist bislang kaum systematisch mit den Netzbeiträgen anderer Fernverkehrsleistungen verknüpft. Der Beitrag entwickelt ein Trassencredit-System als regelgebundenen Allokationsrahmen: Für besonders knappe Premiumtrassen müssen Credits eingesetzt werden; netzergänzende Fernverkehrsleistungen erzeugen Credits. Bewertet werden ausschließlich objektivierbare Verkehrsleistungen, nicht die historischen Kosten eines etablierten Betreibers. Ordnungsökonomisch überführt das Modell eine bislang implizite Netzverantwortung in ein regulatorisch definiertes, handelbares Nutzungsrecht innerhalb einer regelgebundenen Wettbewerbsordnung. Seine Tragfähigkeit hängt davon ab, ob zwei Fehlerquellen institutionell beherrscht werden: die Marktmacht eines dominanten Anbieters im Creditmarkt und die Vereinnahmung der Bewertungsregel. |
| Abstract: | Open-access competition is bringing new long-distance rail services to high-demand routes. This is a welcome development from a competition-policy perspective, but it reveals an institutional problem: access to especially attractive paths is only weakly connected to the network contributions generated by other long-distance rail services. This paper proposes a track-credit scheme as a rule-bound allocation framework. Scarce premium paths require credits, while network-complementary services generate them. Valuation rests on observable transport outputs, not on the historical costs of an incumbent operator. The scheme converts an implicit network contribution into a regulatorily defined, tradable usage right within a rule-bound competitive order, provided two failure modes, incumbent market power and capture of the scoring rule, are contained. |
| Keywords: | Schienenpersonenfernverkehr, Open Access, Trassenvergabe, handelbare Credits, Netzökonomie, Wettbewerbspolitik, long-distance rail, open access, slot allocation, tradable credits, network economics, competition policy |
| JEL: | L92 R48 D47 D23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:343554 |
| By: | Mehdi Davoudi; Minghao Mou; Junjie Qin |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the strategic market participation of a monopolistic energy storage aggregator (ESA) in a day-ahead electricity market. The ESA coordinates geographically distributed storage units, submits a coordinated bid for its portfolio, and may hold financial transmission rights (FTRs). The system operator clears the market through a network-constrained, multi-period economic dispatch, determining generation and load schedules, nodal prices, energy-market payments, and FTR payoffs. We formulate the ESA--system-operator interaction as a Stackelberg game and characterize its equilibrium through a constraint-binding-pattern decomposition of the market-clearing problem. Beyond enabling equilibrium computation, the framework reveals how the ESA can increase its profit by strategically inducing or avoiding particular constraint-binding patterns. It also establishes a novel welfare result: although strategic storage without FTRs is known to weakly improve social welfare relative to the no-storage case, certain FTR positions can overturn this guarantee by strengthening the ESA's incentive to induce particular patterns, causing social welfare to fall below the no-storage level. Motivated by these findings, we develop two system-operator mechanisms for limiting undesirable ESA behavior and its adverse effects on market outcomes and social welfare. Finally, a three-bus study illustrates the theoretical findings, while IEEE test systems demonstrate the scalability of the proposed method. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.15755 |
| By: | Ernst, Sebastian (LSE); Mueller, Andreas (University of Zurich); Spinnewijn, Johannes (LSE); Bollens, Joost (VDAB) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the use of algorithmic risk profiling to direct job search support toward individuals most at risk of long-term unemployment. Using three regression discontinuity designs and administrative data from the Flemish Public Employment Service (VDAB) in Belgium, we address two key dimensions: whom and when to target. First, job search counseling raises employment on average, but treatment effects decline sharply with predicted risk. This reveals a trade-off between targeting those most at risk and those most responsive to intervention. Second, we find no evidence that treatment effects depreciate at the individual level, but strong dynamic selection: as spells lengthen, surviving job seekers have both higher baseline risk and lower treatment responsiveness, with opposing implications for the returns to treatment. We develop and calibrate a conceptual framework for optimal targeting that highlights the key role of the ratio of predicted treatment effects to predicted job-finding probabilities. Targeting rules combining both objects substantially outperform the status quo, yielding welfare gains nearly three times those from random assignment, while targeting on risk scores alone performs worse than random assignment. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, targeting, treatment effect heterogeneity, regression discontinuity, public employment services, machine learning |
| JEL: | J64 J65 H43 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18934 |
| By: | Ghosh, Rudrani |
| Abstract: | Most research on violence against women in India depends on administrative police records. However, this raw data often suffers from severe reporting biases and fails to account for massive population differences between districts. To address these flaws, this study applies causal inference, hierarchical modeling, and machine learning to better understand local crime dynamics. By combining two decades of National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) statistics with 2011 Census demographics, we map both the spatial distribution and the true sociological drivers of this violence. We found no evidence of geographic clustering; a Moran's I analysis shows the violence is distributed randomly across the country. Furthermore, our mixed-effects hierarchical models indicate that broad state-level policies explain less than 1% of the variance in local crime rates. Furthermore, by applying Pearl's do-calculus and Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), we isolate the causal effects of the male-female literacy gap and urbanization, proving that urbanization is the dominant driver of reporting rates. A Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) correctly isolates the passage of the 2013 Criminal Law (Amendment) Act as an administrative reporting shock yielding an 88, 879 annual case surge rather than a behavioral epidemic. Finally, Bayesian Belief Networks are utilized to model highly nonlinear sociological interactions, providing a mathematical framework for proactive risk assessment. |
| Date: | 2026–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4fxsm_v2 |
| By: | fahey, orla |
| Abstract: | Designing for pedestrian road safety is challenging. Designs need to work for a broad and diverse range of pedestrians, while also considering the needs of other vulnerable road users, such as cyclists. Pedestrians are ranked as the most vulnerable in the road user hierarchy and designing for those with protected characteristics is critically important for road safety designers. One key challenge faced is designing the environment so that safety provisions can align with national and international goals to encourage people to walk or wheel more for health, economic and environmental reasons. Doctoral research was undertaken to understand whether and how design can improve pedestrian road safety and used key study sites in London to investigate the relationship between safety affordances in public space and pedestrian safety. One main finding was that often, during a redesign, safety features are removed. The consequences of these changes make it difficult for pedestrians to maintain their safety, particularly those with protected characteristics. Beyond potential physical harm, there are psychosocial impacts: people may avoid a route if they feel it is unsafe or leads to conflict in contested spaces which leaves pedestrians feeling unable to navigate a space confidently. These experiences are not routinely captured within road safety data, which focuses largely on KSI (killed or seriously injured) outcomes. I have coined this phenomenon of removing an affordance a disaffordance. The concept comes from over five years of doctoral research into pedestrian road safety in the UK, which focused on pedestrian-only study sites in London that had been redesigned as shared-space zones. Identifying safety affordances and disaffordances in the built environment helps to identify opportunities for broader and more systematic pedestrian participation in the design process. The research also developed GroundMap, a diagnostic approach for identifying and mapping affordances and disaffordances and anticipating the potential consequences of their removal. At a broader level, the term disaffordance might be extended to identify other environments where the removal of an affordance has significant consequences. While this research applies the concept specifically to pedestrian safety, its wider application across other environments and domains is identified here as a direction for future work. |
| Date: | 2026–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6tb3p_v2 |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Carolyn Wilkins |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the history of private money to assess the conditions under which stablecoins could function safely at scale and what their growth may imply for U.S. monetary power. Historical systems of private money in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland show that par circulation depended on institutional arrangements rather than payment technology. Drawing on the monetary history of private money, convertibility, and international currencies, the paper identifies five foundations for scalable private money: credible convertibility, high-quality and transparent backing, a uniform regulatory perimeter, par clearing infrastructure, and credible crisis management and loss allocation. Stablecoins may improve settlement speed, programmability, and cross-border access, but they do not remove these requirements. Applying this framework to contemporary stablecoins and the GENIUS Act, the paper finds that the Act addresses several of these foundations more fully than others, with crisis management and cross-border coordination less fully developed. Dollar stablecoins could extend the reach of dollar settlement, but historical experience reviewed here suggests that whether this strengthens the dollar system depends both on the institutional framework supporting stablecoins and on the deeper foundations of U.S. monetary dominance: confidence in U.S. institutions, fiscal capacity, monetary credibility, and the rule of law. |
| JEL: | E42 E44 G15 N20 N40 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35768 |
| By: | Sofie R. Waltl (University of Cambridge); Judita Jurasekova Kucserova (National Bank of Slovakia); Zuzana Brokesova (University of Economics and Business); Boris Frankovic (Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic); Andrej Cupak (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | Wealth surveys systematically under-represent affluent households because wealthy respondents are less likely to participate. We study whether targeted incentives can improve top-tail coverage in the Slovak Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). Using census data, we pre-identify affluent households and randomly assign them to treatment and control groups. Treated households are offered a limited-edition non-cash participation incentive: a proof-quality silver collector coin. The incentive increases participation by 11–14 percentage points, equivalent to a roughly 40% increase relative to the participation rate among non-incentivized wealthy households, with the largest effects occurring when combined with personal interviewer contact. The treatment disproportionately attracts financially sophisticated households, improving coverage of the upper tail of the wealth distribution without reducing response quality. Incorporating these additional households increases measured mean wealth, raises the wealth Gini coefficient by up to 6.5%, and improves alignment between survey aggregates and National Accounts. Our findings show that fieldwork design and participation incentives materially affect the measurement of wealth inequality and may contribute to cross-country differences in HFCS-based statistics. |
| JEL: | C83 C93 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1145 |
| By: | Kozarević, Safet; Ramić, Emir |
| Abstract: | Agricultural production is the sector most affected by extreme weather conditions. Insurance, as the risk management tool, should provide an adequate response to the challenges that economies and households will increasingly face in the future. Given the importance of agricultural production for Bosnia and Herzegovina, a study was initiated to examine the interest of insurance companies to introduce index-based agricultural insurance products into their portfolios. Index-based (parametric) insurance is a model in which compensation payments are triggered by a reference index, in contrast to traditional insurance models that provide indemnification based on the actual loss incurred. The main objective of the research was to determine how insurance companies perceive the agricultural insurance segment, specifically to identify the key factors influencing their attitudes toward index-based agricultural insurance. Secondary data sources included official publications and reports from state insurance agency. Primary data were collected through a survey conducted among insurance companies in Bosnia and Herzegovina registered for non-life insurance. The degree of agreement with statements in the questionnaire was assessed using a five-point Likert scale. The collected data were analyzed using methods of descriptive and inferential statistics. The research revealed that insurance companies are indifferent on this matter. Their focus on the development of other insurance products and skepticism about the profitability of agricultural and index-based insurance products negatively affect their interest in introducing index-based agricultural insurance products. The companies agree that premium subsidies for agricultural insurance are essential, but they show a low level of initiative for negotiating with government authorities on this issue. The legal framework is an area that needs improvement in order to make significant progress in the wider application of insurance in agricultural production. Efforts should also be directed towards continuous education in the field of insurance and the development of new insurance products. |
| Keywords: | index insurance, agricultural insurance, Bosnia and Herzegovina, innovative insurance products |
| JEL: | G22 O13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343418 |
| By: | Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper draws on a Ricardian model for a small open economy and derives the welfare implications of tariffs. By focusing on three key parameters – (i) the expenditure share on imports, (ii) the degree of tariff pass-through, and (iii) the proportion of tariff revenues spent domestically – the model provides closed-form expressions for welfare, optimal tariff rates, and threshold tariff levels. The analysis explains why the marginal effectiveness of increasing tariff rates declines and might even become negative as well as why real wage income typically diverges from total income when tariff revenues are saved rather than spent. The results indicate that high pass-through of tariffs substantially limits potential welfare gains from tariffs even at the optimal rate. Improvements in the trade balance only arise when tariff revenues are not fully recycled into domestic demand. However, welfare is also lower when the optimal tariff rate is applied in such a case. The framework captures mechanisms consistent with more complex trade models and highlights the narrow range of conditions under which tariff policy can yield positive welfare outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Ricardian trade model, optimal tariffs, pass-through, trade balance |
| JEL: | F13 F17 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:280 |
| By: | Jason Milionis; William Pires |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first work at the intersection of game theory and property testing, giving algorithms and lower bounds for efficiently testing whether an allocation mechanism is incentive compatible (IC). We propose distinguishing whether a mechanism is $\epsilon$-far from being IC, i.e., when it observes many monotonicity "violations." Conceptually, inspired by the literature on Boolean function monotonicity testing, we construct a tester for discrete single-parameter allocation rules. Technically, our work is the first to consider monotonicity testing of vector-valued functions on the hypergrid. We give a $\tilde{O}(n/\epsilon)$-query algorithm to test whether a function (representing n-player allocation mechanisms) is coordinate-wise monotone versus $\epsilon$-far from it. We also show a matching lower bound: the class of coordinate-wise monotone vector-valued functions on a Boolean hypercube or hypergrid requires $\tilde{\Omega}(n/\epsilon)$ queries to test whether it is $\epsilon$-far from monotonicity, and this holds even if the tester is two-sided and allowed to make adaptive queries. Finally, we extend our upper bound to and give a tester of the same query complexity for pricing functions of allocation mechanisms. This requires overcoming the technical challenge that the path in function space to the closest IC mechanism may involve interdependent changes to both the price and the allocation rule. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.17406 |
| By: | Tiziano Ropele (Bank of Italy); Giordano Zevi (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of investment developments in the euro area and its four largest member economies over 1996-2025, using National Accounts data disaggregated by country, asset type, and sector. Investment dynamics are tightly synchronised during systemic downturns, while recoveries are markedly heterogeneous. A shift-share decomposition shows that persistent cross-country differences in investment growth are driven mainly by within-category performance rather than by differences in allocation across assets and sectors. At the same time, investment is gradually shifting towards intangible assets, with intellectual property products displaying a sustained upward trend largely independent of the business cycle. An augmented accelerator model identifies economic activity as the main driver of investment fluctuations, with financial conditions exerting a significant influence - especially for construction - and confidence and uncertainty playing a complementary role at cyclical turning points. Estimated elasticities vary substantially across countries and asset classes, pointing to heterogeneity in shock transmission within the monetary union. A historical decomposition highlights cross-country differences in recent dynamics, with Germany's weakness reflecting structural and supply-side factors, and Italy's post-2019 recovery also driven by fiscal measures. More broadly, the post-2022 period is characterised by a generalised weakening in investment, consistent with tighter financial conditions and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | investment, euro area, accelerator model, financial conditions, economic uncertainty, cross-country heterogeneity |
| JEL: | D22 E22 E32 F13 F14 F45 G21 O16 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1059_26 |
| By: | Bayerlein, Michael; Bendiek, Annegret; Hemmelskamp, Jonas; von der Forst, Maik |
| Abstract: | The healthcare sector worldwide is facing an increasing threat from cyberattacks. Between 2022 and 2025, the European Repository of Cyber Incidents (EuRepoC) recorded a total of 351 significant attacks on healthcare facilities. These data provide initial insights into the impact of cyberattacks on healthcare systems and sectors, and the crisis management that follows. They also highlight that such attacks pose a threat to public health and national security. The data analysis shows that national critical sectors and the European and international levels must be interlinked. The National Security Council could do so by developing an integrated national and international situational assessments based on interdisciplinary analyses. Only such an approach can systematically identify threats, derive effective measures from them and comprehensively protect the healthcare sector. |
| Keywords: | cyber security, healthcare sector, public health, crisis management, resilience, national security, critical infrastructure, KRITIS, ransomware attacks, data theft, digitalisation, EU, WHO, National Security Council, BSI, ENISA, SSA, national security, health risks, cyberattacks |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:344002 |
| By: | Wei Li (Shanghai Jiaotong University); Jie Ouyang (Hong Kong Baptist University); Bin Qiu (Southeast University); Zi Wang (Hong Kong Baptist University); Yuan Zi (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies) |
| Abstract: | Modern protectionism has increasingly taken the form of decentralized trade coercion rather than multilateral escalation. What tariffs prevail in such local trade wars? How are welfare consequences shared between participants and bystanders? And can targeted economies credibly deter unilateralism? Using a multi-country, multi-sector Armington model that distinguishes the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported goods from that across foreign varieties, we show that bilateral tariffs generate substantial third-market leakage. Applied to recent U.S. trade policy, this leakage magnifies U.S. losses and bystander gains under Trump 1.0, with bilateral Nash tariffs that are lower but more costly than those implied by standard models with a uniform trade elasticity. Trump 2.0's Liberation Day tariffs reverse these patterns by largely shutting down third-market leakage through broad-based tariff escalation. In a dynamic setting, no individual trading partner can credibly deter U.S. unilateralism: bilateral retaliation is either too weak or too costly. Only a near-universal coalition, broadly resembling the WTO membership, can flip U.S. incentives. |
| Keywords: | Local Trade Wars; Third-Market Leakage; Bilateral Tariffs; Unilateral Protectionism; Strategic Deterrence |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp26-2026 |
| By: | Pinar Tat (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Abdullah Altun (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Halit Yanikkaya (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the trade-related intensity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By integrating sector-level FDI inflows with detailed trade-related emission data, the study goes beyond conventional approaches by focusing not only on aggregate emissions but specifically on emissions embedded in exports. Using a comprehensive dataset covering 38 countries and 35 sectors from 2005 to 2020, the analysis provides new insights into how multinational production activities lead to global environmental outcomes. The findings reveal that FDI inflows increase emission intensity in trade in both developed and developing countries. The findings are particularly valid for the manufacturing sectors, regardless of trading partners. These results support the pollution haven and race to the bottom hypotheses, highlighting the need for stronger international environmental coordination. The study thus fills a critical gap in the literature by linking international investment strategies to trade-induced emissions and offers clear policy recommendations to align FDI policies with global climate objectives. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Trade-related Emissions, Emission Intensity, Greenhouse Gases (GHG) |
| JEL: | F18 F21 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:geb:wpaper:2026-01 |