|
on Investment |
| By: | Aydın, Yaşar |
| Abstract: | Der Nato-Gipfel vom 7. und 8. Juli 2026 in Ankara bescherte Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdoægan einen persönlichen Prestigegewinn und der Türkei eine symbolische Aufwertung ihrer Stellung in der Nato sowie als Sicherheitspartner für USA und EU. Doch die konkreten Ergebnisse waren bescheiden. Die von der türkischen Regierung wahrgenommenen sicherheitspolitischen Bedrohungen sowie das Interesse, die internationale Vernetzung voranzutreiben und die Exportchancen der expandierenden Rüstungsindustrie des Landes auszubauen, erfordern engere Kooperation mit den USA und der EU. Dadurch stößt das Leitbild der "nationalen strategischen Autonomie", das Ankara gegenüber Washington wie Brüssel verfolgt, an seine Grenzen. Die beim Gipfel in der türkischen Hauptstadt demonstrierte Nähe zum US-Präsidenten Donald Trump könnte sich als Hindernis für das Ziel der türkischen Führung erweisen, die Türkei als europäische Mittelmacht stärker in die europäische Sicherheitsarchitektur einzubinden. Umgekehrt könnte eine Annäherung an die EU das Verhältnis zu Trump belasten. Trotz solcher Dilemmata bleibt eine strategische Rückkehr zur "klassischen Westorientierung" ausgeschlossen. |
| Keywords: | Strategische Autonomie, türkische Außenpolitik, Nato-Gipfel 2026, Westorientierung, strategische Autonomie, Erdoægan, Trump, Türkei, USA, EU, Deutschland, Geopolitik, Rüstungskooperation, Nato-Forum für Verteidigung, Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA, Montreux-Übereinkommen |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:343135 |
| By: | Nina Graveline (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Juliette Le Gallo (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Alexandre Alix (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Marta Debolini (EMMAH - Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes - AU - Avignon Université - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); David Dorchies (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Katrin Erdlenbruch (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Sébastien Loubier (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | In the Mediterranean area, climate change threatens both farming and water resources. The need for methods to support reflection and dialogue on transformational adaptation strategies is urgent. We propose and demonstrate an innovative approach, co-constructing pathways for climate change adaptation and water management by combining (i) participative scenario building and (ii) a serious game. While the first explores the combination of exogenous driving forces on the agricultural system consistent with SSPs at regional level, the serious game allows us to explore the co-evolution of land and water use and related policies at the farm level. Results confirm that land use can vary greatly in a medium-term horizon. Our approach helps to envision the role of land use and diversification in future water demand under climate change. The results show that the effect of land use changes on water demand is much higher than the effect of climate scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Pathways, Serious Game, Participation, Climate Change, Water, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05737398 |
| By: | Ayla Jungbluth (Ruhr-University Bochum); Johannes Lederer (University of Hamburg); Simon Trimborn (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Modeling the joint distribution of extreme values in high-dimensional financial time series is challenging because extremes are sparse and locally extreme observations are not necessarily extreme relative to their full marginal distribution. To address this, we introduce a time-dependent network Hüsler-Reiss model in which market-informed adjacency matrices determine how strongly observations contribute to the estimation. We propose binary and weighted specifications, including the Joint Extremes Adjacency Matrix (JEAM) which combines information about individual extremeness with historical patterns of joint extreme movements. In the forecasting evaluation part, covering one-minute stock returns from three sectors of the S&P 100, JEAM achieves the best out-of-sample log scores for both tail directions; improving scores by 12.5-13.6% in the lower tail and 11.4-14.9% in the upper tail. The results show that incorporating market-informed network structures in the estimation, improves forecast evaluation of extremes across time series. |
| JEL: | C53 C58 G17 |
| Date: | 2026–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260070 |
| By: | Goodhart, Charles (London School of Economics and CEPR); Peiris, M. Udara (Department of Economics, Oberlin College); Tsomocos, Dimitrios (University of Oxford); Wang, Xuan (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute) |
| Abstract: | Corporate borrowing creates safe claims for some households and concentrates residual risk in equity for others. This portfolio heterogeneity drives a supply-side channel through which corporate leverage conditions monetary transmission. Tightening erodes equity holders’ wealth while safe-asset holders are cushioned; the resulting income effect makes aggregate labor fall more at high leverage, raising the sacrifice ratio. A static model yields a closed-form hump in leverage, with the US range on the rising side, disciplined by Survey of Consumer Finances portfolio shares. A calibrated dynamic model roughly doubles the sacrifice ratio, and US local projections agree in sign, shape, and timing. |
| Keywords: | Household heterogeneity, Monetary policy, Corporate leverage, Phillips curve, Labor supply |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 G11 G51 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxv:wpaper:2602 |
| By: | Shiyao Liu; Junni L. Zhang |
| Abstract: | Recent work encourages political scientists to move from post-only toward within-subject designs for improved precision from repeated measurements. We formalize a potential-outcomes framework for two-period within-subject designs that allows for unequal allocation and heterogeneous treatment and carryover effects. We characterize the pooled estimator and evaluate the carryover test used to justify pooling. We find: first, pooling identifies the average treatment effect only when the gap in the average carryover effects is zero across the two treatment sequences. The unit-clustered standard error for the pooled estimator is identical to its design-based counterpart. Second, under mild conditions, the carryover test has strictly less power than the average-treatment-effect test with post-only data. The resulting two-step procedure, which pools only after a nonrejected test, produces confidence intervals that typically undercover. When the gap is zero, undercoverage occurs if and only if pooling is more efficient than post-only analysis, precisely when the within-subject design is worthwhile. When the gap is nonzero, undercoverage is typical unless the gap or sample size is large. Third, we derive a sensitivity analysis and find published conclusions robust to plausible carryover gaps. We therefore endorse within-subject designs but recommend justifying a zero carryover gap substantively and reporting sensitivity to departures. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.26606 |
| By: | Moaz Elsayed; Christoph Grosse Steffen; Magali Marx |
| Abstract: | Not all supply-chain disruptions have the same macroeconomic consequences. We developed the Global Supply Chain Tension Index (GSTIX), a novel set of publicly available indicators. It distinguishes transportation disruptions from input-production disruptions, which reduce the availability of critical intermediate inputs. We show that the latter have more persistent effects on inflation. The GSTIX offers a tool for assessing inflationary pressures and informing policy. <p> Les perturbations des chaînes d’approvisionnement n’ont pas toutes les mêmes conséquences macroéconomiques. Nous avons développé l’indice de tension sur les chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales (Global Supply Chain Tension Index, GSTIX), un nouvel ensemble d’indicateurs accessibles au public. Il établit une distinction entre les perturbations du transport et les perturbations de la production d’intrants, qui réduisent la disponibilité d’intrants intermédiaires critiques. Nous montrons que les secondes ont des effets plus persistants sur l’inflation. L’indice GSTIX constitue un outil permettant d’évaluer les tensions inflationnistes et d’éclairer la prise de décisions. |
| Date: | 2026–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:econot:458 |
| By: | Nicola Caravaggio; Giuliano Resce; Agapito Emanuele Santangelo |
| Abstract: | This paper develops the Municipal Equitable and Sustainable Well-being Index (MESWI) for all Italian municipalities, extending the 12-domain BES framework to the local level through 49 indicators. Results reveal substantial territorial heterogeneity that regional and provincial statistics may conceal. The North-South divide remains the dominant geographical pattern and is considerably stronger than the difference between inner and non-inner areas. At the same time, municipalities within the same regions and territorial categories display markedly different well-being profiles. Remoteness is associated with weaker services and socio-economic opportunities but also with stronger environmental performance. The MESWI provides a fine-grained picture of multidimensional well-being and a potential information base for the programming, monitoring and evaluation of place-based policies. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.26426 |
| By: | Danae Hernández-Cortés; Alejandro Lopez-Feldman; Rafael Pineda Albarrán; Mariana Ramos Flores; Roberto Vélez Grajales |
| Abstract: | La transición energética de México se desarrolla en un contexto de profundas desigualdades estructurales y una movilidad social persistentemente baja. Si bien la mayoría de los hogares cuenta con electricidad, persisten grandes disparidades en términos de asequibilidad, confiabilidad y en la capacidad del acceso a la energía para ampliar capacidades y oportunidades. Este artículo desarrolla un marco que vincula la justicia energética con la movilidad social combinando evidencia empírica sobre pobreza energética con la perspectiva de la economía social y solidaria (ESS). Con datos de encuestas de hogares, documentamos inequidades en el acceso a los servicios energéticos y mostramos cómo los hogares de bajos ingresos enfrentan cargas desproporcionadas que limitan su movilidad educativa y ocupacional. Posteriormente, exploramos cómo los modelos basados en la ESS, en particular las cooperativas energéticas, pueden mejorar la asequibilidad, la confiabilidad y la participación comunitaria en la gobernanza energética. Un estudio de caso de una cooperativa pesquera en Yucatán ilustra cómo los proyectos de energía renovable pueden tanto aliviar la privación como fomentar la movilidad ascendente. Sostenemos que incorporar la justicia distributiva y procedimental en la transición energética de México es fundamental para lograr un desarrollo inclusivo y sostenible. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auk:ecosoc:2026_02 |
| By: | Gayatri Jai Singh Rathore (PRODIG (UMR_8586 / UMR_D_215 / UM_115) - Pôle de recherche pour l'organisation et la diffusion de l'information géographique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité) |
| Abstract: | Using (Un)Sighting as a conceptual framework, this article offers an empirical examination of the reshaping of recycling practices, labour and spaces in two neighbourhoods of Delhi since the implementation of 2016 E-Waste Management Rules. In recent years, urban mining has not only become an environmental and waste management concern but also an opportunity for value creation for industry actors and public authorities. (Un)Sighting focuses on both the visibility and invisibility of material and economic values of electronic components, as well as of the social values created through the trade of e-waste within a politically complex environment marked by societal discrimination and the socio-economic and political marginalisation of Muslim communities. However, instead of being passive victims, e-kabadis actively use their invisibility as a strategy to protect e-scrapwork from police oversight, while also asserting their autonomy in the face of a formalised e-waste management system that seeks to exclude them. They reposition their work as entrepreneurship, distancing scrapwork from a merely survival economy. It is rather a dynamic and complex activity that plays a role in not only generating value but also in transforming both their social and material surroundings and thus deserves to be acknowledged. |
| Abstract: | En proposant l'(in)visibilisation (Un-sighting) comme cadre conceptuel, cet article présente une analyse empirique des effets consécutifs à la régulation indienne des déchets électroniques de 2016 (E-waste management rules, 2016) sur l'évolution des pratiques de recyclage dans deux quartiers musulmans de e-kabadis de Delhi (spécialisés dans la récupération). Alors que l'exploitation de la mine urbaine recouvre des préoccupations environnementales qui se doublent d'enjeux économiques, grâce à la valorisation des matériaux extraits par les acteurs industriels et les autorités publiques, le concept d'(in)visibilisation permet de souligner les effets paradoxaux des réformes tant en termes de visibilité que d'invisibilité sur les acteurs informels du secteur. L'analyse s'intéresse ainsi au processus d'(in)visibilisation de la valeur, matérielle et économique des composants électroniques, ainsi que sociale, dans des quartiers marqués par la marginalisation socio-économique et politique des communautés musulmanes. Loin d'être de simples victimes, les e-kabadis utilisent stratégiquement leur invisibilité pour se protéger de la surveillance policière, tout en affirmant leur autonomie face à un système officiel de gestion des déchets électroniques qui cherche à les exclure. Ils reconfigurent leur activité comme un acte entrepreneurial, et non plus comme résultant d'une simple logique de survie. L'analyse démontre qu'il s'agit là d'une activité dynamique contribuant non seulement à la création de valeur, mais aussi à la transformation des environnements sociaux et matériels, et qui mérite d'être reconnue. |
| Date: | 2025–03–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05733783 |
| By: | Nikhil Devanathan; Alexandros E. Tzikas; Stephen P. Boyd |
| Abstract: | For more than four decades, the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has served as a benchmark for delivering reasonable returns without excessive risk. More recently, a 50/30/20 stock/bond/alternative portfolio has been suggested. We use gold as the alternative and as an inflation hedge. In this paper we ask: how much improvement over these benchmark fixed-weight portfolios can be obtained using widely available public data and standard methods from quantitative finance? We restrict ourselves to long-only dynamic portfolios of stocks, bonds, and gold, plus cash, rebalancing monthly, using only publicly available data. We evaluate portfolios on the conventional metrics: return, volatility, Sharpe ratio (computed in excess of the federal funds rate), drawdown, and turnover, in addition to consistency of performance over time, judged by the consistency of the realized annual volatility. Over the 20--year period 2006--2026, using a conservative estimate of trading costs, we show that all risk-adjusted and drawdown metrics are improved using simple volatility control, where we dynamically mix the fixed-weight portfolios with cash so as to target a fixed volatility. This method relies on a simple estimate of portfolio volatility derived from past returns. We also demonstrate that more sophisticated portfolios based on convex optimization---similar to those used in quantitative hedge funds---yield further substantial improvement in return and risk-adjusted return. We consider two such portfolios, one that uses a simple estimate of future returns based on past returns, and one that forecasts future returns based on past returns and just a handful of widely available public economic data. These portfolios also outperform a suite of standard risk-based allocation methods, such as risk parity and minimum variance, evaluated on the same assets and data. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.07946 |
| By: | Einig, Klaus; Grotefels, Susan; Harms, Alexander; Hirschelmann, Sophie; Kapitza, Katharina; Kießling, Nadine; Linke, Christoph; Löb, Stephan; Schnurr, Tamara; Sondermann, Martin; Uhl, Thorsten; Wojatschke, Annie |
| Abstract: | Die Wiedervernässung entwässerter Moor- und weiterer organischer Böden ist für den Klimaschutz von zentraler Bedeutung, erfordert jedoch eine enge Verzahnung von Raumordnung, Wasserwirtschaft, Flurneuordnung und Flächenmanagement. In diesem Positionspapier wird aufgezeigt, wie die Landes- und Regionalplanung den Moorbodenschutz wirksam unterstützen kann: durch die Ausweisung von Vorranggebieten zum Schutz und zur Wiedervernässung von Moorböden, die Streichung von Vorranggebieten für den Torfabbau, die Einführung bzw. Weiterentwicklung von Gebieten für den natürlichen Klimaschutz sowie durch koordinierende Beiträge bei großflächigen Wiedervernässungsprojekten. Darüber hinaus werden institutionelle Optionen zur behördlichen Zusammenarbeit, notwendige Anpassungen wasser- und förderrechtlicher Rahmenbedingungen sowie Maßnahmen für eine effizientere Flurbereinigung und eine strategische Finanzierung aufgezeigt. Das Papier formuliert praxisorientierte Empfehlungen, wie Moorbodenschutz planerisch verankert, Umsetzungshürden abgebaut und die Wiedervernässung als überörtliche öffentliche Aufgabe beschleunigt werden kann. |
| Abstract: | Rewetting drained peatlands and other organic soils is central to climate protection, but close coordination between spatial planning, water management and land use management is required. This position paper shows how state and regional planning can effectively support peatland protection and rewetting. This can be achieved through designating priority and reserve areas, eliminating peat extraction areas, further developing climate protection areas, and providing coordinating support for large-scale rewetting projects. It also outlines institutional options for cooperation between authorities, necessary adjustments to water and mining law frameworks, and measures for more efficient land consolidation and strategic financing. The paper formulates practical recommendations on incorporating the management of peatlands and other organic soils into planning processes, removing implementation barriers, and accelerating the rewetting process as a public task. |
| Keywords: | Moorbodenschutz, Wiedervernässung, Raumordnung, Landesplanung, Regionalplanung, Klimaschutz, Planungsinstrumente, Peatland management, rewetting, spatial planning, state planning, regional planning, climate protection, planning instruments |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:343584 |
| By: | Mihai-Vasile Cîrja (Banca Nationala a României); Jordi Romeu Granados (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Central banks and financial supervisory authorities make decisions that affect people, markets and the economy as a whole. Although legitimacy and public trust in public institutions generally depend on their ability to explain what they do, why they act and how they can be held to account through transparent and accountable governance, these considerations are especially important for central banks and financial supervisory authorities. Given their independence from day-to-day political direction and the limited direct political oversight to which they are subject, openness, effective communication and meaningful stakeholder participation play a critical role in maintaining their credibility and democratic legitimacy. Building on this premise, this paper examines the role of transparency and accountability in shaping institutional culture, strengthening legitimacy and fostering trust in this type of independent authority. While a substantial body of literature has examined transparency in specific policy areas, particularly monetary policy and financial stability, this paper adopts a broader governance perspective. It explores how national central banks and national competent authorities promote openness, communicate with stakeholders and the wider public and remain accountable in their day-to-day activities. In this context, transparency is understood not merely as the disclosure of information, but as a core governance function that underpins effective communication, meaningful public engagement and robust accountability arrangements. The analysis combines theory with comparative evidence from a structured questionnaire answered by 30 institutions in EU Member States and five institutions from non-EU jurisdictions. The questionnaire covered legal frameworks, internal arrangements, communication practices, access to information, participation mechanisms and accountability relationships. The findings show that transparency is increasingly more than a legal obligation to publish information. Most participating institutions go beyond minimum legal requirements by publishing additional material, using digital channels, adapting messages to different audiences, supporting financial literacy and creating opportunities for public engagement. At the same time, accountability is shown to operate through a multilayered set of relationships, including reporting duties, parliamentary and audit oversight, review and complaint mechanisms, public explanation and feedback channels that connect institutions both to formal oversight bodies and to society. The study also identifies areas where progress remains uneven, including the evaluation of transparency after publication, the measurement of communication effectiveness, and the transparency of processes supported by artificial intelligence. It concludes that transparency and accountability can drive institutional change when they are embedded in strategy, communication, internal governance, oversight and evaluation. The paper proposes a framework of good practices and a maturity index to help institutions move from compliance-driven transparency towards a more trust-based, evaluative and citizen-oriented approach to accountability, while preserving their independence. |
| Keywords: | central banks, financial supervisory authorities, transparency, accountability, institutional independence, communication, public information, citizen participation |
| JEL: | E58 G28 H11 H83 D73 K23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2617e |
| By: | Hadi Hosseini; Shraddha Pathak; Lirong Xia; Chengkai Zhang |
| Abstract: | Recent work in fair division has focused on either simultaneously satisfying closely related fairness notions or achieving a single notion across the ex-ante and ex-post worlds. We study the compatibility of two fundamentally different fairness notions: envy-freeness and equitability. For indivisible goods-only and chores-only settings, we study the existence and complexity of simultaneously satisfying their relaxations, revealing sharp contrasts between the two settings. We show that EF1+EQ1 may fail to exist even for normalized binary goods: we construct an instance with 113 agents and 341 goods in which every agent approves exactly 165 goods, but no complete allocation satisfies both notions. Our main algorithmic result computes an EF1+EQ1 allocation for every normalized binary goods instance with at most seven agents. Thus, the smallest number of agents admitting a counterexample lies between 8 and 113, leaving the cases from 8 through 112 unresolved. In sharp contrast, binary chores admit the stronger EFX+EQX guarantee for any number of agents, even without normalization. We further initiate the study of cross-notion ex-ante and ex-post guarantees, asking whether randomized allocations can provide ex-ante guarantees for one notion while preserving ex-post guarantees for another. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.26410 |
| By: | Soumen Banerjee; Jianguo Wang |
| Abstract: | Generative AI relocates the fixed cost of automation. A model provider pays to train a frontier system, while a downstream firm rents capability by usage; the same firm must carry a continuing payroll to supply a human-augmented service. We study this asymmetry in a local service economy with household budgets and a market-clearing wage. Human augmentation earns a larger surplus from an additional customer, whereas automation has the lower break-even scale. Payroll supports demand across sectors. Wage adjustment works against this feedback but does not generally undo it: when the wage-income effect dominates the fall in the wage bill per retained worker, production modes are strategic complements. The economy can then possess both a high-demand human-augmented equilibrium and a low-demand automated equilibrium. The former is the local first best, even when flexible wages prevent a firm-profit ranking. With forward-looking firms and staggered revision opportunities, the same inherited employment structure can support an automation cascade or an augmentation recovery; the anticipated path of later adopters validates the first movers' choices. Under the regularity and boundary conditions of Frankel and Pauzner, a public aggregate shock selects a unique state-contingent path, while the vanishing-friction limit selects according to risk dominance. A transparent parameterization anchored to professional-services revenue-to-payroll ratios illustrates how high-autonomy uses can enter the coordination region and how wage adjustment compresses that region. Optimal policy combines the adoption wedge created by demand spillovers with a temporary bridge when the low state is locally self-sustaining. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.25602 |
| By: | Katy Bergstrom; William Dodds |
| Abstract: | Saez and Stantcheva (2016) proposed evaluating tax reforms using generalized welfare weights, which encode the social value of giving a dollar to each person, to incorporate non-utilitarian values without specifying a social welfare function. However, Sher (2024) showed that generalized welfare weights cannot both incorporate non-utilitarian values and evaluate tax reforms consistently (in the sense that they do not generate preference cycles). We show that by relaxing a restriction imposed by both Saez and Stantcheva (2016) and Sher (2024) on how weights vary with the tax schedule, the generalized welfare weight approach can achieve both of these objectives. We characterize when weights are consistent: a policymaker with consistent generalized welfare weights necessarily behaves as if they were determining desirability of tax reforms via a well-defined global objective function, even if they never wrote one down; we show consistency can be checked via a symmetry condition. We also show that consistency does not require the policymaker to specify the underlying objective: any set of mechanical weights (society's valuation of a dollar transferred to each person, holding behavior fixed), utilitarian or not, can be completed into consistent generalized welfare weights by adding a term that captures the implicit value of behavioral responses. Our results are robust to multidimensional tax schedules and heterogeneity, behavioral agents, general equilibrium effects, and non-smooth behavioral responses such as bunching. |
| Keywords: | welfare weights, generalized social marginal welfare weights, consistency, transitivity |
| JEL: | D60 D63 D71 H21 H23 I31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12978 |
| By: | Kaicheng Chen; Antonio F. Galvao; Seunghwa Rho; Timothy J. Vogelsang; Jungmo Yoon |
| Abstract: | This paper develops fixed-smoothing (fixed-b, fixed-K) inference methods for time-series quantile regression that are robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Our approach is uniformly valid over quantile levels and accounts for dependence both over time and across quantiles. It enables the construction of uniform confidence bands, Wald, and Sup-t tests for joint hypotheses, and tests of shape restrictions, providing a unified framework for assessing heterogeneity in quantile effects. A key challenge is that, under weak dependence, uniform inference for quantile regression processes is generally non-pivotal because the limiting distributions depend on the long-run covariance structure across quantiles. To address this issue, we develop two complementary approaches. The uniform-in-$\tau$ method estimates the covariance structure and simulates the non-pivotal limiting distribution. For certain tests involving a finite collection of quantile levels, the stack-Wald method delivers pivotal fixed-smoothing inference. We establish the asymptotic validity of both approaches. Simulation results show that the proposed methods substantially improve size control relative to existing HAC-based procedures while maintaining good power. An application to predictive quantile regressions for stock returns reveals substantial heterogeneity in predictive effects across both quantiles and forecast horizons. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.05883 |
| By: | David Roodman; Maxim Massenkoff |
| Abstract: | We review the evidence on subsidized job training programs in industrial countries. We provide critical, narrative summaries of randomized studies of major job training in the US; of two "judge randomization" studies in the US and Denmark; and of previous meta-analyses. We then perform a meta-analysis of 56 randomized trials of job training in the US since 1973, the most exhaustive meta-analysis in this niche. Here, average impacts are positive but modest: employment rises 1.7 percentage points in years 3-5, and annual pre-tax earnings by roughly \$800 per person offered training. At an average cost of \$13, 598 per participant, programs roughly break even under (debatable) assumptions about how long benefits persist. They recoup about three-quarters of their cost for government through higher tax revenue and lower benefit use. Evaluations of the largest federal efforts--JTPA, the Workforce Investment Act, and Job Corps--return small or null effects. One cluster of programs stands out: "sector programs, " which screen applicants intensively, design curricula with employers, and track local skill demand. They raise earnings roughly ten times as much. They have proven difficult to replicate. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.07011 |
| By: | Snower, Dennis |
| Abstract: | Evolutionary economics explains economic change through variation, selection, retention, transmission, innovation, and institutional transformation, whereas much of economics explains outcomes through purposive choice. This article argues that these modes of explanation become recursively connected once economic agents can represent the evolutionary processes in which they participate and intentionally alter their operation. It develops the concept of reflexive economic evolution: agents do not merely choose within given constraints or adapt to existing selection pressures, but can generate new possibilities, modify selection environments, organize transmission, and sometimes revise the criteria and mechanisms by which variants are selected. This latter second-order capacity is termed meta selection. Reflexive economic evolution does not imply comprehensive control or a predetermined social end-state: guidance changes the distribution of possible trajectories under uncertainty rather than determining a trajectory. The framework shows how intentional and evolutionary explanations can be causally complementary, why effective agency is partly endogenous, and why policy should be understood not only as changing current outcomes but also as reshaping the evolutionary environment in which subsequent adaptation and innovation occur. |
| Keywords: | Evolutionary economics; economic methodology; agency; reflexivity; causation; meta selection; institutions; teleology |
| JEL: | B41 B52 D02 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-23 |
| By: | Alistair Barton |
| Abstract: | I propose a novel, tractable model of pro-social norms in large communities with slightly altruistic agents. Agents participate in the norm to influence others to participate in the norm, influencing further agents. A continuum of equilibria sustain the pro-social norm, varying in the distribution of how much agents are influenced by their observations. If agents' effective altruism $\alpha$ is larger than their impatience $1-\delta$, equilibria exist that are robust to a population of bad actors. Greater strategic homogeneity increases the robustness of the norm. Robustness is not improved by increasing the number of observers of each action beyond 1. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.06151 |
| By: | Marcel Nutz; Moritz Voss |
| Abstract: | We study the quadratic tracking problem of a general stochastic target process with absolutely continuous controls, with and without terminal constraint. We derive explicit, non-asymptotic upper bounds in terms of a Besov-type modulus of the target. These bounds yield sharp explicit rates that specialize to the square-root order for semimartingale targets. We then apply these results to a generalized Obizhaeva--Wang execution model with random terminal inventory. We first develop a Hilbert-space approach to characterize its optimal strategy, which includes jumps. To avoid such trading spikes, one regularizes the problem by a quadratic trading-rate penalty with coefficient $\varepsilon$. We then show that the regularized optimal execution cost---and therefore the excess price impact cost of the regularized optimal strategy---converges at the sharp rate $O(\sqrt{\varepsilon})$. Since the regularized optimal strategy is not available in closed form, we further construct a nearly optimal strategy which is readily implementable and shares the same approximation rate. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.29468 |
| By: | Haiqiang Chen; Li Chen; Yunlong Chen; Difang Huang; Bo Zhang |
| Abstract: | We examine whether post-origin training information inflates the measured accuracy and economic value of financial forecasts. We evaluate five sets of financial time-series foundation models, each comprising independently trained annual vintages under U.S., global, and factor-augmented training environments, across 14 equity markets and four forecast horizons. Rolling comparisons vary the annual vintage for a fixed forecast; fixed-vintage comparisons hold the vintage fixed as target windows move across its training cutoff. Each alternative forecast is paired with an origin-aligned point-in-time (PIT) benchmark using identical numerical histories and inference protocols. In the U.S.-trained reference environment, post-origin vintages materially revise informative PIT forecasts but generally reduce accuracy in both designs. Pooled rolling comparisons yield higher mean squared forecast errors in 18 of 20 U.S. model-set-horizon combinations. The origin-crossing update also performs worse on average than an equally long pre-origin update. Under a common constrained allocation rule using one-month forecasts, median exposed-minus-PIT differences in annualized certainty-equivalent returns are -1.77 percentage points in the United States and -2.14 points internationally. Global and factor-augmented training produce more mixed predictive effects. An exact squared-error decomposition shows that revisions improve accuracy when their error-correcting benefit exceeds their mean squared magnitude; under U.S. training, alignment with PIT errors generally falls short of this requirement. Temporal exposure therefore establishes an information-set violation, not sufficient evidence of inflated predictive accuracy or investor value. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.20554 |
| By: | Roshan Ghadamian (Institute for Regenerative Systems Architecture) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces regenerative capital as a distinct paradigm of economic organisation: non-extractive, non-depletive, multi-cycle capital that strengthens institutions over time. It generalises the logic of Perennial Social Capital (PSC) — a zero-interest, non-liability, soft-repayable, indefinitely recyclable capital class — and unifies its behaviour across public finance, philanthropy and institutional economics. The argument rests on a taxonomy of what each incumbent class takes. Debt extracts a payment and converts operational volatility into financial stress; equity extracts a surplus and with it a claim on direction; grants extract nothing while consuming the principal. Regenerative capital removes all three simultaneously, and that absence is what permits the same base to be deployed across many cycles. It therefore stands orthogonally to debt, equity and grants rather than between them, and it inherits PSC's formal apparatus: capital evolution, social value productivity, the System Internal Rate of Return and the System Value Multiplier. âš ï¸ The pool still declines. At R |
| Keywords: | regenerative capital, Perennial Social Capital, capital theory, institutional economics, public finance, non-extractive finance, capital cycles, system IRR, multi-cycle capital, philanthropy, public-good economics, institutional design, economic resilience |
| JEL: | H50 H54 G10 G20 O43 G32 L31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:evk:wpaper:rct |
| By: | Lucas Oliveira do Amorim (IPC); Monique Medeiros (IPC); Domingo Cassain Sales (IPC); Mireya Eugenia Valencia Perafan (IPC); Marielle Eden Palmeira do Nascimento (IPC); Cintia Souto Reis (IPC); Franciele Santos Bispo (IPC) |
| Keywords: | rainfall decline; water resilience; Semi-Arid Brazil; climate change; cisterns; water insecurity |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:idopen:015 |
| By: | Leiashvily, Paata |
| Abstract: | The Arrow–Debreu model is regarded as the benchmark of rigor in neoclassical theory and the mathematical form of the “invisible hand.” This essay contests that status. Its starting claim is simple. The conditions under which the model proves the existence of equilibrium do not idealize the market but negate it: in a world of complete contingent markets, without money, irreversible time, or genuine uncertainty, a market is neither needed nor possible. The model proves equilibrium precisely where no market exists. Hence its central conclusion. The existence theorem and the two welfare theorems yield no gain in knowledge about the real economy. They yield knowledge about the properties of a specially constructed system; they are called “economic” by intended subject matter, not by the knowledge obtained. The essay shows how this differs from legitimate idealization in physics: a Galilean model can be de-idealized, the Arrow–Debreu model cannot, and reality does not converge to it even asymptotically (SMD). In this the author sees an epistemological crisis of the mainstream — one sustained not by the force of argument but by institutional reproduction through departments, journals, and textbooks. The critique takes an unusual form: four dialogues with artificial intelligence (DeepSeek, Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini). Its value lies not in the systems’ agreement but in the resistance that had to be overcome: independently trained yet disposed to defend the mainstream, under sustained pressure each denied the model the status of economic knowledge. The dialogues also expose a second theme — how a dominant paradigm entrenches itself as “common sense, ” including within AI tools. The stakes exceed academic dispute: they concern the content of economic education and the discipline’s way out of its crisis. |
| Keywords: | Arrow–Debreu model; general equilibrium; welfare theorems; economic methodology; epistemology; idealization and abstraction; Sonnenschein–Mantel–Debreu theorem; critique of neoclassical economics; economics education; AI in research. |
| JEL: | B41 B50 D50 |
| Date: | 2026–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:130906 |
| By: | Antonio Cabrales; Gregorio Curello; Olivier Gossner; Roberto Serrano |
| Abstract: | We study how willingness to pay for information depends on risk aversion when a decision maker faces background risk and can acquire information before choosing from a menu of assets. We distinguish investment menus, whose payoffs are procyclical with background wealth, from insurance menus, whose payoffs are countercyclical. Our main results show that the interaction between asset cyclicality and the tail geometry of background risk determines the direction of the comparative statics. When the density of background risk is log-concave, willingness to pay for information decreases with risk aversion for investment menus, whereas with downward-log-convex background risk it increases with risk aversion for insurance menus. The proofs compare the distributions of terminal wealth with and without information and develop new aggregation arguments for state-dependent single-crossing comparisons. We also construct reversals under strictly log-convex tails for investment menus and super-exponential left tails for insurance menus. |
| Keywords: | investment, insurance, background risk tails, risk aversion, value of information |
| JEL: | C00 C43 D00 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12982 |
| By: | Valeria Lermana; Oren Rigbi; Yaniv Dover |
| Abstract: | The rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs) creates new opportunities for strategic content generation on online platforms, including potentially harmful forms of manipulation that may undermine platform effectiveness and reshape platform dynamics. However, measuring such activity is difficult because AI-generated content is rarely directly observable. We introduce an empirical approach that leverages discrete LLM supply shocks - abrupt changes in model prices and capabilities, and contrasts verified with non-verified reviews to identify changes in platform activity associated with generative AI supply improvements. We apply this approach to more than 13 million reviews from Trustpilot, one of the leading online platforms for business reviews. A robust finding is that following LLM supply shocks, unverified reviews shift toward greater negativity: more 1-stars, fewer 5-stars, and lower ratings, with effects driven primarily by new model releases and concentrated among firms with the lowest and highest review volumes, suggesting that strategic AI use may reshape platform competition dynamics. We further find that LLM supply shocks trigger short, concentrated bursts of review activity. Together, these findings suggest that generative AI is already reshaping how reputation and competition operate on online platforms. |
| Keywords: | generative AI, large language models, online reviews, digital platforms, user-generated content |
| JEL: | L86 O33 L15 M31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12960 |
| By: | Sokbae Lee; Yuan Liao; Myung Hwan Seo; Youngki Shin |
| Abstract: | Multinomial choice models allow flexible substitution patterns but become computationally demanding with many alternatives or observations. With a fixed per-observation simulation budget, simulated maximum likelihood introduces simulation bias, while each optimization step requires a full-sample likelihood evaluation. We propose Stochastic Approximation with Unbiased Simulated Scores (SAUSS), an averaged stochastic approximation based on conditionally unbiased mini-batch score estimates. Each iteration uses a fixed mini-batch regardless of sample size. For multinomial probit, accept-reject sampling provides exact conditional draws and unbiased score estimates for any fixed number of accepted draws. Under local conditions, asymptotic theory for the averaged estimator and the partial-sum process of the SAUSS iterates incorporates mini-batch and simulation variability and supports random-scaling and plug-in inference. In simulations and an application, SAUSS gives comparable results in less than 1% of the computation time of simulated maximum likelihood. SAUSS extends to limited dependent variable models with conditional-expectation score representations and exact conditional sampling. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.25304 |
| By: | Dupuy, Arnaud (University of Luxembourg); Raux, Morgan (Aix-Marseille School of Economics); Signorelli, Sara (CREST) |
| Abstract: | Technological change requires workers to reallocate across occupations, but it may also reshape how easily they can do so by changing occupational skill requirements. We exploit digitalization during the 2010s to study this mechanism. We measure occupational accessibility by comparing occupational skill requirements in job-posting data. Combining these measures with French matched employer–employee data, we find that occupations becoming more similar in their digital skill profiles experience greater worker mobility. Counterfactual simulations based on a structural two-sided matching model indicate that changes in occupational accessibility generate worker reallocation amounting to 21 percent of that generated by observed labor-demand shifts. |
| Keywords: | occupation mobility, technological change, matching |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18881 |
| By: | Riadh Ben Jelili (LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], Brest IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Brest - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - Bretagne INP - Institut National Polytechnique de Bretagne); Olivier Adoukonou (UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud, LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]); Youssef Fahmi (LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]); Jean-Laurent Viviani (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the factors influencing corporate decisions in sustainable bond issuance, focusing on Green Bonds (GB), Sustainability-Linked Bonds (SLB), Sustainability Bonds (SUB), and Social Bonds (SOB). Using a multivariate Probit model, the analysis identifies key determinants such as industry classification, governance transparency, financial constraints, and macroeconomic conditions. The findings reveal distinct issuance patterns, highlighting the impact of firm size, leverage, and greenwashing risks. Companies operating in weaker governance environments are more likely to issue GB, while liquidity-constrained firms prefer SLB due to their flexible structure. Concerns over the credibility of SLB, particularly regarding greenwashing, have become increasingly prominent. In contrast, GB issuance remains largely unaffected by greenwashing due to stricter regulatory oversight. The study underscores the need for stronger regulatory frameworks and enhanced third-party verification to improve the credibility of sustainability-linked financing. These insights contribute to the broader discourse on sustainable finance, offering valuable implications for policymakers, investors, and corporate decision-makers. |
| Date: | 2025–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05737206 |
| By: | Ricardo Alonzo Fern\'andez Salguero |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates alternative designs for reforming Bolivia's liquefied petroleum gas subsidy using a machine-learning agent-based microsimulation framework. The analysis harmonizes household survey data, expenditure data, demographic and health information, and monthly hydrocarbon production and commercialization series to simulate fiscal savings, poverty effects, energy substitution, administrative costs, and social risks under multiple reform scenarios. The model compares uncompensated subsidy removal, fixed energy transfers, full compensation for vulnerable LPG users, voucher-based compensation, maternal-child transfers, clean-energy transition kits, and hybrid policy packages. Machine-learning models are used to learn household vulnerability, fuel-use patterns, food insecurity risk, and behavioral propensities that feed into a monthly agent-based simulation. The results show that eliminating the subsidy without compensation generates the largest fiscal savings but increases poverty, extreme poverty, and pressure toward solid-fuel substitution. Full monetary compensation for Q1-Q2 LPG users substantially reduces social harm while preserving significant fiscal savings and dominates an equivalent voucher design under normal market conditions because of lower administrative friction. The most socially robust design combines targeted monetary energy compensation, maternal-child reinforcement, and clean-energy kits for households using solid fuels. The findings support a gradual replacement of the universal LPG subsidy with targeted, administratively lean, and behaviorally informed compensation mechanisms. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.00414 |
| By: | Raja El Asri (FSJES Agadir, Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]); Abdelaziz Messaoudi (FSJES Agadir, Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]) |
| Abstract: | In the dynamic and frequently under-researched domain of emerging financial markets, this research rigorously analyzes the influence of behavioral biases and financial literacy on the multifaceted aspects of investment decision-making among individual investors in Morocco. The central aim is to investigate bivariate correlations between eleven behavioral biases categorized across cognitive, emotional, and mental/social dimensions and the three dimensions of investment decision-making: intuition, perceived rationality, and overall satisfaction.The research adopts a distinctly exploratory design that is firmly situated within a quantitative, hypothetico-deductive paradigm. The sample comprises 411 individual investors who are actively involved in the Casablanca Stock Exchange, selected through a self-administered online questionnaire that was distributed between January and March 2025. The analysis of data was performed utilizing SPSS (version 30), employing non-parametric statistical methodologies, particularly Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, as a result of the non-normality of the variable distributions, which was substantiated by the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test.The findings underscore that specific behavioral constructs such as optimism, mental accounting, and financial literacy exert a constructive impact on all three facets of decision-making, characterized by consistently robust and affirmative correlations. Conversely, various biases including anchoring, representativeness, availability heuristic, and gambler's fallacy exhibit significant adverse associations, particularly influencing perceived rationality and overall satisfaction. Regret aversion emerges as a complex bias, revealing a dualistic nature with a notably positive correlation with satisfaction.Inspite of the methodological limitations related to the application of convenience sampling and a cross-sectional methodology, the research yields considerable theoretical contributions by clarifying the intricate relationships between behavioral biases and cognitive processes relevant to investment. Furthermore, it articulates concrete practical ramifications, particularly the imperative to augment investor cognizance regarding financial literacy and the psychological mechanisms that may compromise the integrity of decision-making quality.The uniqueness of this investigation is attributed to the concurrent and multifaceted evaluation of behavioral biases, the implementation of an exploratory framework reliant on primary data sources, and its empirical foundation in a relatively understudied emerging market. These characteristics confer both scholarly and contextual relevance to the research, thereby facilitating subsequent inquiries into the behavioral dynamics associated with financial decision-making within Morocco and analogous economies. |
| Abstract: | Dans le paysage évolutif et peu méconnu des marchés financiers émergents, cette enquête vise à évaluer systématiquement les conséquences des biais comportementaux et de la littératie financière sur les différents paramètres de la prise de décision d'investissement des investisseurs individuels au Maroc. L'objectif principal est d'évaluer les associations bivariées entre onze biais distincts classés selon les classifications cognitives, émotionnelles et mentales/sociales etles trois facettes de la prise de décision d'investissement : l'intuition, la rationalité perçue et la satisfaction globale.La méthodologie employée est purement exploratoire et s'aligne sur un cadre quantitatif hypothético-déductif. L'échantillon comprend 411 investisseurs individuels engagés activement à la Bourse de Casablanca, qui ont été recrutés au moyen d'un questionnaire en ligne auto-administré diffusé entre janvier et mars 2025. L'analyse des données, effectuée à l'aide du logiciel SPSS (version 30), est fondée sur des tests statistiques non paramétriques, en particulier le coefficient de corrélation de rang de Spearman, en raison de la non-normalité confirmée des données, comme l'indique le test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov.Les résultats indiquent que certains biais cognitifs exercent un effet bénéfique sur diverses dimensions de la prise de décision, notamment l'optimisme, la comptabilité mentale et la littératie financière, qui présentent toutes des corrélations positives avec l'intuition, la rationalité et les niveaux de satisfaction. À l'inverse, d'autres biais dont l'ancrage, la représentativité, la disponibilité et le sophisme du joueur révèlent des corrélations négatives considérables, influençant particulièrement la rationalité et la satisfaction perçues, tandis que le phénomène de l'aversion au regret présente une double nature, ayant principalement une influence positive sur la satisfaction.Malgré les limites inhérentes de notre étude, qui découlent de l'utilisation de l'échantillonnage par convenance et d'une méthodologie transversale, elle fournit des informations théoriques substantielles en mettant l'accent sur l'influence nuancée des biais comportementaux sur les divers éléments de la prise de décisiond'investissement. De plus, elle présente des implications pratiques distinctes, notamment l'impératif d'améliorer la sensibilisation des investisseurs à l'égard de la littératie financière et de l'atténuation des préjugés psychologiques.Le caractère unique de cette enquête réside dans la nature multidimensionnelle des biais examinés simultanément, l'utilisation d'une méthodologie exploratoire fondée sur des données primaires et son fondement empirique dans un marché qui demeure relativement sous-exploré, donnant ainsi une importance académique et contextuelle considérable à cette recherche. |
| Keywords: | Moroccan individual investors, financial literacy, investment decision-making, Behavioral biases, corrélations bivariées (Spearman). Classification JEL : D91, G41. Paper type: Empirical research, bivariate correlations (Spearman) JEL Classification: D91, G41 Behavioral biases, G4, G11, bivariate correlations (Spearman) JEL Classification: D91 G11 G4 G41. Paper type: Empirical research, Moroccan individual investors, financial literacy, investment decision-making, corrélations bivariées (Spearman). Classification JEL : D91 G11 G4 G41 Behavioral biases, investisseurs individuels marocains, littératie financière, prise de décision d'investissement, Biais comportementaux |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05691184 |
| By: | Jonathan Acosta-Smith (The Organisation of Economic Co-Operation and Development); Marzio Bassanin (Bank of England); Ivy Sabuga (International Monetary Fund.) |
| Abstract: | We assess the macroeconomic effects of the output floor, a new regulatory constraint introduced as part of the Basel III framework. The output floor is designed to provide a backstop against excessively low risk-weighted assets (RWA) modelled by banks relative to the riskiness of the underlying exposures. Our model shows that it counteracts the downward pressure on modelled RWA during economic expansions and, in turn, reduces the cyclicality of risk-weighted capital requirements. This mitigates increases in the credit-to-GDP ratio and supports the objectives of the macroprudential authority. Our analysis also uncovers important sectoral effects. Estimating the model for the UK economy, we find that during an expansion the output floor dampens the growth of mortgage lending but amplifies the expansion of lending to firms, although the latter effect is more than offset by the former. |
| Keywords: | Capital regulation;output floor;macroprudential policy;DSGE models |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023582 |
| By: | Samira Amiriyan; Youness Boutaib |
| Abstract: | The computation of Black-Scholes implied volatility is a fundamental task in quantitative finance, underpinning option valuation, model calibration and risk management. Although implied volatility is routinely used in practice, the inversion of the Black-Scholes pricing formula remains a challenging numerical problem, particularly in asymptotic regimes corresponding to extreme option prices, strikes or maturities, where the inverse map becomes highly sensitive to perturbations of the price. In this paper, we introduce a new family of asymptotically-informed neural-network architectures for implied-volatility computation. Exploiting the distinct behaviours of the Black-Scholes pricing function in different volatility regimes, we propose a family of architectures that learn a trainable partition of the price-log-moneyness domain through a system of gating functions and combines specialised local approximations of the implied-volatility function within each region. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed models consistently outperform standard feed-forward neural networks across a wide range of parameter domains, often by several orders of magnitude in relative accuracy while maintaining excellent generalisation properties. Furthermore, the neural-network outputs provide highly accurate initial guesses for a third-order Householder scheme, allowing near machine-precision implied-volatility computations after only two refinement iterations. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.05491 |
| By: | Nicolas Jullien (MARSOUIN - Môle Armoricain de Recherche sur la SOciété de l'information et des usages d'INternet - UR - Université de Rennes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], IMT Atlantique - DI2S - Département Interdisciplinaire de Sciences Sociales - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]); Karine Roudaut (LABERS - Laboratoire d'Études et de Recherche en Sociologie - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO EPE - Université de Brest, UBO EPE - Université de Brest) |
| Abstract: | This article examines whether collective and voluntary practices of online knowledge production, such as Wikipedia and free/open-source software (FOSS) projects, can genuinely be considered commons in Elinor Ostrom's sense. It argues that it is contributions, rather than access to knowledge, that function as the regulated, subtractive resource, in the projects developed and managed by a collective. In these projects, which succeeded in attracting contributors, contributors compete for publication spaces and peer attention, creating the need for governance systems analogous to those in traditional commons. It shows that digital knowledge projects exhibit structural parallels with physical commons, such as hierarchical bundles of rights, differentiation between users and contributors (who consume the subtractive resource), and policymakers, as well as the centrality of monitoring and rule-making to sustain cooperation. Digital infrastructures (e.g. knowledge artifact modularity, algorithmic tools, and platform architectures) facilitate large-scale participation while enabling scalable monitoring and nested governance structures. These technologies also facilitate community formation, where membership is achieved through sustained contribution and recognition rather than pre-defined boundaries.The article concludes that not all open or collaborative digital projects qualify as commons; only those in which a community collectively governs access to the subtractive resource do so. It also raises open research questions concerning sanctions, conflict resolution, multi-layered governance and the evolving relationship between digital commons, institutional frameworks and their socio-technical environments. |
| Keywords: | community, governance, digital, knowledge economics, commons |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05743297 |