|
on Investment |
| By: | Derenoncourt, Ellora; Gerard, Francois; Lagos, Lorenzo; Montialoux, Claire |
| Abstract: | How do minimum wages affect informality? We study the near-doubling of the real minimum wage from 2000 to 2009 in Brazil, where 46% of the workforce is informal. Using labor force surveys covering the informal sector, we show the minimum wage exhibits near full passthrough to informal employees working in formal firms, about half of all informal employees. The formal-to-informal reallocation elasticity with respect to the formal wage is small: -0.28. Our findings illustrate how minimum wages can positively affect living standards for workers thought beyond the reach of labor law, a sizable share of the workforce in developing economies. |
| JEL: | J23 J46 J88 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20797 |
| By: | Mustapha El Jarari (Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales, Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech); Rachid Chayboub (Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales, Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech); Brahim El Morchid (Faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales, Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of household food security among smallholder farmers in the Souss Valley. Recognizing the household as a fundamental unit of food access and stability, the level of food security is assessed using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), which categorizes households into four groups: food secure, marginally food insecure, moderately food insecure, and highly food insecure. A multinomial logistic regression model is employed to analyze the influence of key household characteristics, including the age and marital status of the household head, household size, farm size, number of livestock units, access to credit, remittances, income diversification, and access to irrigation, on food security status. The results reveal differentiated effects across food insecurity levels. While variables such as the household head's age and household size are associated with marginal food insecurity, access to irrigation and income diversification play a critical role in reducing the likelihood of falling into food insecurity. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude examine les déterminants de la sécurité alimentaire des ménages parmi les petits exploitants agricoles de la vallée du Souss. Reconnaissant le ménage comme une unité fondamentale de l'accès et de la stabilité alimentaires, le niveau de sécurité alimentaire est évalué à l'aide de l'échelle d'insécurité alimentaire des ménages (HFIAS), qui classe les ménages en quatre groupes : sécurité alimentaire, insécurité alimentaire marginale, insécurité alimentaire modérée et insécurité alimentaire sévère. Un modèle de régression logistique multinomiale est utilisé pour analyser l'influence de caractéristiques clés des ménages, notamment l'âge et la situation matrimoniale du chef de ménage, la taille du ménage, la superficie de l'exploitation, le nombre d'unités de bétail, l'accès au crédit, les envois de fonds, la diversification des revenus et l'accès à l'irrigation, sur le statut de sécurité alimentaire. Les résultats révèlent des effets différenciés selon les niveaux d'insécurité alimentaire. Alors que des variables telles que l'âge du chef de ménage et la taille du ménage sont associées à l'insécurité alimentaire marginale, l'accès à l'irrigation et la diversification des revenus jouent un rôle essentiel dans la réduction de la probabilité de basculer dans l'insécurité alimentaire. |
| Keywords: | Souss Valley, Smallholder farmers, Multinomial logistic regression, HFIAS, Food security |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05595797 |
| By: | Marie-Noëlle Guilbaud (UNAM - Instituto de Geofisica [México] - UNAM - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico); Eleonore Mérour (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Benjamin van Wyk de Vries (LMV - Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); María del Pilar Ortega-Larrocea (UNAM - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico); Silke Cram (UNAM - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico); Claire Shires (LRL - Laboratoire de Recherche sur le Langage - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Oryaëlle Chevrel (OVPF - Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise - IPG Paris - Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, LMV - Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Maria Fernanda Martínez-Báez Téllez (UNAM - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico); Selene Eridani Zaragoza Alvarez (UNAM - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico); Catherine Morgan-Proux (CELIS - Centre de Recherches sur les Littératures et la Sociopoétique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Globally, natural heritage is increasingly threatened by human activity. Despite the recent development of the geodiversity and geoheritage concepts and the success of associated programs such as UNESCO Global Geoparks, natural heritage is still widely considered to refer only to biotic elements such as plants and animals, demonstrating the persistent gap between geosciences and society. Collective actions are required to address these issues that are crucial in the context of a rapidly changing planet. How can we develop research that considers nature as a whole and open a dialogue with society? To answer this question, we use concepts and tools from organization science to analyse an interdisciplinary exchange project between the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) in Mexico and the Université Clermont Auvergne in France. Through collaborative work on natural geosites located in both countries, diverse research topics emerged. Using a realistic narrative method, we describe, for each topic, the subjective trajectories and objective outcomes achieved by the participants through their activities, which defined their sense of action, allowed the success of these collective works and ensured their concrete impact for the conservation and protection of the natural sites. We then examine the project's organization using an apparatus that highlights five key organizational processes: 1) the foundation of a common ground through a theoretical framework experienced in the natural sites, 2) the emergence of research topics, 3) the fulfillment of these projects, 4) the diffusion of scientific results, and 5) the dissemination of knowledge to society. We finally discuss the results of our project in terms of sense of place, ecological sensemaking and sensegiving to demonstrate their role in the development of a holistic view of natural heritage that overcomes epistemic differences and culminates in activities of knowledge-sharing that breaks barriers and opens dialogue between science and society. |
| Abstract: | À l'échelle mondiale, le patrimoine naturel est de plus en plus menacé par l'activité humaine. Malgré l'émergence récente des concepts de géodiversité et de gépatrimoine, ainsi que le succès de programmes associés tels que les Géoparcs mondiaux de l'UNESCO, le patrimoine naturel est encore largement considéré comme se limitant aux éléments biotiques, tels que les plantes et les animaux, ce qui témoigne du fossé persistant entre les géosciences et la société. Des actions collectives sont nécessaires pour répondre à ces enjeux cruciaux dans le contexte d'une planète en mutation rapide. Comment développer une recherche qui considère la nature dans sa globalité et ouvre un dialogue avec la société ? Pour répondre à cette question, nous utilisons des concepts et des outils issus des sciences de l'organisation afin d'analyser un projet d'échanges interdisciplinaires entre l'Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) au Mexique et l'Université Clermont Auvergne en France. Grâce à un travail collaboratif sur des sites naturels situés dans les deux pays, divers thèmes de recherche ont émergé. À l'aide d'une méthode narrative réaliste, nous décrivons, pour chaque thème, les trajectoires subjectives et les résultats objectifs obtenus par les participants à travers leurs activités, qui ont défini leur sens de l'action, permis la réussite de ces travaux collectifs et assuré leur impact concret sur la conservation et la protection des sites naturels. Nous examinons ensuite l'organisation du projet à l'aide d'un dispositif mettant en évidence cinq processus organisationnels clés : 1) Un cadrage théorique comme projet fondateur et expérimenté sur des sites naturels , 2) l'émergence de thèmes de recherche, 3) la réalisation de ces projets, 4) la diffusion des résultats scientifiques, et 5) la transmission des connaissances à la société. Nous discutons enfin des résultats de notre projet en termes de sentiment d'appartenance au lieu, de construction du sens écologique et de transmission du sens (sensegiving), afin de démontrer leur rôle dans le développement d'une vision holistique du patrimoine naturel qui surmonte les différences épistémiques et aboutit à des activités de partage des connaissances qui brisent les barrières et ouvrent le dialogue entre la science et la société. |
| Keywords: | Geodiversity, Geoheritage, Organization sciences, Natural heritage, Geosciences, Biodiversity |
| Date: | 2026–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05666754 |
| By: | Casas-Arce, Pablo; Martinez-Jerez, Asis; Perrone, Helena |
| Abstract: | We examine how retailers can strategically influence demand toward higher-margin products at the expense of manufacturers’ and consumers’ interests. Specifically, we focus on an understudied mechanism as a tool for demand steering: stockouts. Our empirical evidence suggests that retailers make strategic restocking decisions, putting less effort into restocking low-margin products and prompting consumers to shift purchases towards high-margin products. The analysis uses a unique dataset where we observe both sales and latent demand, i.e., how many sales a certain product lost when it was out of stock. By exploiting variation in product availability, we recover preference parameters in a setting where prices vary infrequently. Estimated diversion ratios are high across products within the retailer and low towards outside retailers. We also recover manufacturers’ marginal costs and perform counterfactual exercises to measure the welfare effects of demand steering on consumers and manufacturers. Results indicate that while welfare losses are economically relevant on average, retailers and some manufacturers benefit from strategic stockouts. Our paper sheds light on the challenges of detecting demand steering in habitual contexts and the market inefficiencies arising from downstream moral hazard. |
| JEL: | D22 D43 L13 L4 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20708 |
| By: | Rui Yao; Kenan Zhang |
| Abstract: | Large-scale traffic assignment requires equilibrium models that are both behaviorally plausible and computationally tractable. This paper develops a perturbed utility Markovian equilibrium (PUME) framework that preserves the scalability of link-based Markovian traffic equilibrium models and extends their applicability to settings with boundary choice probabilities, undiscounted network loading, and general link interactions. As the behavioral basis of PUME, we first develop the perturbed utility Markovian choice model (PUMCM) in which the Bellman optimality operator is defined through a convex surplus function whose gradient directly yields the optimal policy. The model generalizes existing additive random utility (ARUM) Markovian choice models and admits both interior and boundary choice probabilities. Accordingly, unattractive links can receive zero flow without imposing ex ante choice-set restrictions as in existing ARUM models. We establish conditions under which the corresponding Markov decision problem is well posed and yields a proper demand mapping. We then formulate the equilibrium as a variational inequality (VI) problem on the dual cost space and establish its existence and uniqueness. Particularly, the VI formulation of PUME accommodates non-separable and asymmetric cost structures and thus offers a more flexible modeling framework than existing Markovian traffic equilibrium (MTE) models. For computation, we develop a modified policy iteration method for network loading and a safeguarded accelerated meta-algorithm for computing equilibrium. Both algorithms are proven to be globally convergent and have demonstrated satisfactory numerical performances. Experiments on benchmark and synthetic networks further show that the proposed framework is highly scalable and robust towards a wide variety of demand-supply settings. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.09568 |
| By: | Boero, Riccardo (NILU - the Climate and Environmental Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This work presents a stylized computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for analysing circular economy policy strategies in an intentionally abstract setting. The model is not calibrated to a specific economy; instead, it uses round-number calibration data and systematic numerical experiments to identify the behavioural and physical conditions under which circular strategies reduce primary material use, represented by virgin metal. The analysis compares virgin-metal taxation, recycling support, and life-extension support through refurbishment, repair, and reuse in single-country and two-country model variants. The results show that circular strategies cannot be ranked by label alone. Virgin-metal taxation operates through an upstream material-price channel and is comparatively insensitive to how end-of-life products are allocated among circular routes. Recycling and life-extension support depend more strongly on collection and allocation of end-of-life products, route yields, recycled-metal quality, route substitutability, and final-product service-demand response. For some combinations of demand elasticity, substitution elasticities, route yields, and recycled-metal quality, a policy can reduce virgin-metal use even while demand for the final product service increases; for others, the same demand response can weaken or reverse the expected primary-material reduction. Support-efficiency comparisons show that refurbishment support performs better than recycling support in the closed-economy case, while this gap narrows when virgin-metal production is separated from consumption and circular processing in the two-country extension. The nested life-extension analysis further shows that refurbishment, repair, and reuse are not interchangeable policy mechanisms. Overall, the model provides a reproducible equilibrium framework for identifying where circular economy strategies work, where they fail, and which assumptions drive the difference. |
| Date: | 2026–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:69gcx_v1 |
| By: | Nicola Cetorelli; Shohini Kundu |
| Abstract: | Banks became safer after Basel III. Whether it made the broader organization safer is less clear. We document that bank subsidiaries accumulated capital, improved asset quality, and reduced risk. But holding companies built that capital largely by drawing on their nonbank affiliates. Did the reallocation reduce risk for the organization as a whole or merely move it to a less visible part of the firm? Our evidence points to the latter: the same internal capital markets that helped banks meet tighter requirements left nonbank affiliates with thinner buffers and riskier business models, and a greater capacity to transmit distress back to the organizations that own them. |
| Keywords: | banks; nonbanks; bank holding companies (BHCs); regulation; arbitrage; boundaries of the firm |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G28 G38 |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:103547 |
| By: | Kretschmer, Tobias; Rasch, Alexander; Shekar, Shiva; Wenzel, Tobias |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of mandating interoperability in a network market. We model competition between an incumbent service that employs a data-driven business model in exchange for ’free’ access to the service and a privacy-preserving entrant. On the user side, there are direct network effects and users are privacy conscious. We characterize market outcomes with and without interoperability and find that interoperability may induce data or privacy spillovers as user data are transferred across different services. Because mandating interoperability results in higher data collection levels, it can hurt user welfare if these privacy spillovers are sufficiently large. Moreover, the entrant’s market share also decreases when privacy spillovers are large, that is, contestability is limited. |
| JEL: | L13 L15 L96 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20383 |
| By: | Pallavi Pal |
| Abstract: | When a parent company acquires a horizontal competitor on the same side of a multi-sided market, it must decide whether to fully integrate the acquired platform or keep it as a separate brand. We study this in the context of Uber’s acquisition of Postmates, using novel consumer receipt data that tracks food delivery spending. Employing an Age–Period–Cohort (APC) decomposition, we isolate the merger’s effect on consumer spending while controlling for lifecycle and cohort effects. We find that Postmates users sharply reduced their spending on the platform after the merger, but spending shifted not only to UberEats, but also to competitors like DoorDash and Grubhub. Consumers who used multiple platforms and had low pre-merger activity on Postmates were more "sticky", showing little change. Comparing our APC results with a standard Difference-in-Differences (DiD) design, we find the DiD underestimates the merger’s total impact by missing market-wide effects. Our findings suggest that in multi-sided markets, keeping acquired platforms separate can be beneficial; dissolving them may push demand to competitors, and some sticky multihoming users may not shift spending at all. |
| Keywords: | platform , merger |
| JEL: | D43 L11 L42 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12754 |
| By: | Nina Boberg-Fazlic (TU Dortmund University); Maja Uhre Pedersen (University of Southern Denmark); Kristin Ranestad (University of Oslo); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | We study whether Norway's 1827 rural school act broadened access to elite education. Using the universe of candidates for the Norwegian university entrance examination (examen artium), 1815--1860, we construct a candidate-level dataset of all 3, 006 candidates, including birthplace and father's occupation. After plausibly exposed cohorts entered the sample, candidates became more rural: the countryside share rose from about 45 to 52 percent and mean distance to a city from 18.0 to 21.6 km. Social opening was weaker. Farmers' sons increased from a low base but remained sharply underrepresented. The reform widened geography more than class. |
| Keywords: | education, social mobility, school reform, Norway, examen artium, rural schooling |
| JEL: | I24 J62 N33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0307 |
| By: | Alice Albonico; Guido Ascari; Qazi Haque; Kostas Mavromatis; Andra Smadu |
| Abstract: | We develop and estimate an open economy DSGE model for the euro area where global energy prices and the exchange rate jointly determine domestic inflation, because imported energy, priced in foreign currency, enters both consumption and production. Energy and exchange-rate disturbances account for the bulk of short-run volatility in headline euro area inflation, with energy price shocks driving most of the post-pandemic surge. Because energy and non-energy goods are poor substitutes, an adverse energy price shock raises import values, deteriorating the trade balance and depreciating the real exchange rate through the net-foreign-asset and UIP channels. The exchange-rate channel strengthens monetary transmission and improves the short-run inflation-output trade-off relative to a non-energy economy. Optimal policy can exploit this channel rather than looking through energy price shocks. The case for looking through such shocks becomes stronger when the central bank assigns a greater weight to output gap stabilization and prices become stickier. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, inflation, energy, Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | E52 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-55 |
| By: | von Wangenheim, Sven; Marx, Alexander; Schuster, Florian |
| Abstract: | Deutschland befindet sich in einem Innovationsparadox. Staat und Unternehmen investieren mehr als fast jedes andere Land der Welt in Forschung und Entwicklung (FuE) - und doch mangelt es an Innovation. Wir untersuchen, ob die Allokation der FuE-Fördermittel des Bundes diesem Paradox entgegenwirkt oder es verstärkt. Grundlage ist der Förderkatalog des Bundes mit nahezu 40.000 aktiven Fördervorhaben. Für die Unternehmensförderung kombinieren wir ihn mit Unternehmensdaten aus S&P Capital IQ und klassifizierten Technologie-Reifegraden (TRL) mittels Few-Shot-LLM-Klassifikation. Das Ergebnis: Die Förderpolitik bevorzugt systematisch große und etablierte Unternehmen. Jeweils fast zwei Drittel der Fördersummen fließen an Großunternehmen ab 250 Mitarbeitenden und etablierte Unternehmen, die älter als 20 Jahre sind. Die Fördermittel konzentrieren sich außerdem auf die mittleren Reifestufen TRL 4 bis 6; Frühphasenforschung auf TRL 1 bis 3 erhält bei Unternehmen so gut wie keine Projektförderung. Dieses System fördert nicht disruptive Innovationen, sondern subventioniert die inkrementelle Verbesserung bestehender Produkte. Wir leiten aus dem Vergleich mit anderen Ländern vier Reformoptionen für die Förderpolitik des Bundes ab, die diese Probleme beheben können. Ein Förderprogramm für kleine und junge Unternehmen mit gesetzlicher Mindestquote bei der Vergabe von Fördermitteln inkl. Zugang zu öffentlicher Beschaffung. Eine gesetzlich verankerte Technologieprioritätenliste mit TRL-Ziel-Vorgaben, durch die die Allokation von Fördermitteln in Schlüsseltechnologien und Hightech-Sektoren geleitet wird. Eine Ausweitung der Frühphasenförderung - durch einen schrittweisen Ausbau der SPRIND und ein ergänzendes, breit angelegtes und niedrigschwelliges Programm, das insbesondere auch frühe TRL-Stufen umfasst. Stärkere Transferförderung durch neue Anreize und Unterstützung bei der Zusammenarbeit zwischen Universitäten, Forschungsinstituten und Unternehmen sowie direkterem Zugang zu Fördergeldern für Forschende. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Forschung, Wachstum |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:342312 |
| By: | Dorje C. Brody |
| Abstract: | A game of information concerns two players transmitting messages that are obscured by noise. A receiver digests the combination of the two information sources and makes an assessment rationally. The aim of the players is to generate opposing assessments for the receiver by choosing signal-to-noise ratios of their information. It is shown that this problem can be reduced into an elementary infinite game on the square, thus admitting a complete equilibrium solution. Three generalisations of the game are proposed. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.15936 |
| By: | Dina M Hamed |
| Abstract: | Making informed policy decisions is contingent upon the availability of reliable and timely data. The use of non-traditional data has been shown to be a powerful tool for enabling policymakers to conduct robust nowcasting—the practice of estimating the current period’s economic indicator(s), ahead of official releases, using a wide range of macroeconomic and high-frequency data. This paper showcases how different types of non-traditional data, such as indices extracted from satellite imagery, Google Trends, and flight tracking information, can be leveraged to complement official statistics and monitor economic activity, and how these timely signals can be incorporated into nowcasting models to provide early estimates of key macroeconomic variables in Morocco. The approach is applied to agricultural gross value added, tourism revenues, and the unemployment rate. The results demonstrate that non-traditional data substantially improves nowcasting models by enhancing predictive accuracy and enabling the rapid generation of nowcast estimates prior to the release of official data. |
| Keywords: | Nowcasting; Macroeconomic Forecasting; Non-traditional data; Satellite Imagery; Google Trends; Tourism Revenues; Agriculture GVA; Unemployment Rate; Machine learning; Morocco |
| Date: | 2026–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/108 |
| By: | Caballero, Ricardo; Caravello, Tomás; Simsek, Alp |
| Abstract: | Central banks rely on r*—the neutral interest rate—to assess policy stance. However, monetary policy affects activity through broad financial conditions, not only the short-term rate. We propose FCI*, the neutral level of a financial conditions index consistent with output at potential. Unlike r*, FCI* is insulated from financial fluctuations: when asset prices move, FCI captures their estimated effect on output, leaving FCI* to reflect only what the macroeconomy requires. In U.S. data, r* co-moves with the equity premium; FCI* does not. FCI gaps provide useful real-time guidance on policy stance, especially when financial conditions diverge from the policy rate. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E43 E44 C32 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20362 |
| By: | De La Croix, David; Scebba, Rossana; Zanardello, Chiara |
| Abstract: | While good ideas can emerge anywhere, it takes a community to develop and disseminate them. In premodern Europe (1084-1793), there were approximately 200 universities and 150 academies of sciences, which were home to thousands of scholars and created an extensive network of intellectual exchange. By reconstructing interpersonal connections that were made via institutional affiliations, we demonstrate how the European academic landscape facilitated the diffusion of ideas and led cities to develop: examples include botanic gardens, astronomical observatories, and Protestantism. Counterfactual simulations reveal that both universities and academies played crucial roles, with academies being particularly effective at connecting distant parts of the network. Moreover, we show that the diffusion of ideas through the network is remarkably resilient, even if we remove key regions such as France or the British Isles. In Europe, ideas gain prominence when they are channeled effectively by powerful institutions. |
| JEL: | N33 O33 I23 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20569 |
| By: | Ayyar, Sreevidya; Bolt, Uta; French, Eric; O’Dea, Cormac |
| Abstract: | Using a digitized sample of thousands of essays written by 11-year-olds in 1969, we construct an index which measures the extent to which girls’ imagined futures conform to gender norms in Britain at the time. We link this index to outcomes over the life-cycle. Conditional on a large set of age-11 covariates, a one standard deviation increase in our index is associated with a decrease in lifetime earnings of 3.5%, due to both lower wages and fewer hours worked. Half of this earnings decline is mediated by reduced educational attainment, selection into lower-paid occupations, and earlier family formation of those who conform more strongly to prevalent gender norms. Holding skills constant, girls whose essays conform less to gender norms, live in regions with higher female employment and educational attainment. This highlights that the wider environment in which girls grow up shapes gender conformity. |
| Keywords: | Gender identity |
| JEL: | J16 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20741 |
| By: | Bilal, Adrien; Stock, James |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the literature that links macroeconomics and climate change. We organize our review into three categories: (i) loss and damage, which assesses long-run economic costs and non-market impacts from climate change; (ii) mitigation and the energy transition, which evaluates the macroeconomic consequences of shifting away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy; and (iii) adaptation, which explores the economic adjustments necessary to manage heat stress, more frequent severe weather events and rising seas. We discuss macroeconomic frameworks that quantify these structural shifts as well as empirical estimates that guide their calibration. We suggest areas in which macroeconomic research on climate is needed. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E60 F55 H23 H41 Q43 Q50 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20659 |
| By: | Allen, Cian; Bems, Rudolfs; Boer, Lukas; Moussa, Racha |
| Abstract: | US dollar appreciations can inflict sizable negative cross-border spillovers. We investigate such spillovers from flight-to-safety shocks and the accompanying “global dollar cycle†. Our results show that negative real sector spillovers from US dollar appreciations fall disproportionately on emerging markets. In contrast, effects on advanced economies are small and short-lived. Emerging market commodity exporters historically experienced larger negative spillovers than commodity importers, reflecting a strong negative link between the US dollar and commodity prices. In terms of policies, more anchored inflation expectations can mitigate the initial negative spillovers, while more flexible exchange rates can speed up the subsequent economic recovery. |
| JEL: | E50 F30 F41 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20371 |
| By: | Riedel, Frank (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University); Spengemann, Marco (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University) |
| Abstract: | We study optimal insurance design under linear transaction costs for a policyholder with smooth ambiguity preferences when the underlying loss distribution is identifiable ex post. Under expected utility, Arrow’s classical theorem implies that the optimal contract is a straight deductible. Under ambiguity, this result generally fails. We show that ex post identifiability restores the straight-deductible structure: the optimal contract consists of model-contingent straight deductibles. We also derive comparative statics with respect to transaction costs and characterize the ordering of deductibles under stochastic ordering of loss distributions. |
| Keywords: | Insurance design, risk sharing, smooth ambiguity aversion, identifiability, straight deductible, comparative statics |
| Date: | 2026–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bie:wpaper:767 |
| By: | Gebauer, Stefan; Nakov, Anton; Nuño, Galo; Osbat, Chiara; Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo; Paulus, Alari; Quintana, Javier; Valderrama, Maria Teresa; Palazzolo, Alberto |
| Abstract: | The repeated occurrence of supply-chain disruptions since the COVID-19 pandemic reveals the need to complement traditional macroeconomic frameworks with approaches that better capture the complexity of modern economic productionstructures. This paper synthesises the findings of the ChaMP Research Network, highlighting how production network models and heterogeneity across firms, sectors and countries enrich our understanding of monetary policy transmission. Bycapturing input-output relationships between firms and economic sectors, these approaches show how the propagation and persistence of shocks depend on network structure, the position of sectors within the network – where central sectorsexert disproportionate influence – and differences and variations in price and wage flexibility. The inflationary effects of supply shocks tend to be amplified, while the effects of demand shocks, including monetary policy shocks, are dampened. Inaddition, large shocks can give rise to nonlinearities, such as a steepening of the Phillips curve. This aligns with the conclusions of the ECB’s most recent strategy assessment, which emphasise the need to analyse the risks surrounding the inflationoutlook. The findings also point to the emergence of trade-offs between inflation and output gap stabilisation, as production networks and heterogeneity weaken the alignment between price and output dynamics. As a result, stabilising inflation andoutput simultaneously calls for astute fiscal policy. Overall, incorporating production networks provides a more nuanced and policy-relevant framework for designing state-contingent and data-informed monetary policy. JEL Classification: E52, E58, D57, E32 |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission, Phillips curve, production networks, sectoral structure, supply chains, supply shocks |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2026392 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Periklis Gogas; Theophilos Papadimitriou |
| Abstract: | Using annual EU-27 data for 1995-2024, we examine whether sovereign ratings mainly reflect common macro-fiscal fundamentals or whether agency-specific departures from that benchmark are also priced into sovereign funding conditions. Pooled ordered probits and a machine-learning diagnostic layer for nonlinearities and thresholds for Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P identify a stable set of core rating determinants centred on inflation, debt-to-GDP, current account balance, budget balance rule indicator, output gap, old-age dependency, and revenue capacity, while within-country variation is narrower and concentrated mainly in inflation, debt, and unemployment. The machine-learning analysis confirms that flexible models absorb nearly all systematic variation between fundamentals and ratings, validating the shadow-rating decomposition used in the market-pricing test. ECB-based bond-yield regressions show that both the fundamentals-implied shadow rating and the agency-specific deviation are priced in euro-area Bund spreads: a one-notch more favourable value of either component is associated with about 50 basis points lower spreads. Evidence indicates that this pricing effect strengthens as debt rises and intensifies further once debt exceeds 100% of GDP, while a shorter crisis-period interaction is directionally similar but less precise. Sovereign ratings therefore appear to combine a common fundamentals core with discretionary overlays that markets treat as economically relevant signals. |
| Keywords: | sovereign ratings; sovereign risk pricing; sovereign bond spreads; rating agencies; ordered probit; panel data; machine-learning; macro-financial transmission. |
| JEL: | C23 C25 E44 F34 G15 H63 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp04242026 |
| By: | Luo, Patrick; Ravina, Enrichetta; Sammon, Marco; Viceira, Luis |
| Abstract: | Using a large and representative panel of U.S. brokerage accounts, we show that retail investors trade as contrarians after large earnings surprises, especially for loser stocks, and that such contrarian trading contributes to price momentum and post earnings announcement drift (PEAD). We show that extreme return streaks and surprises are not enough for stocks to exhibit PEAD and momentum and that the intensity of contrarian retail trading plays a key role: the PEAD of loser stocks with bad earnings surprises becomes increasingly more negative as retail buying pressure increases, and he PEAD of the stocks with the highest past returns and largest earnings surprises is the most positive for the stocks with the biggest net retail outflow. Finer sorts confirm the results, as do sorts by firm size and institutional ownership level. Younger and more attentive individuals are more likely to be contrarian, and a firm’s dividend yield, leverage, size, book to market, and analyst coverage are associated with the fraction of contrarian trades they face around earnings announcements. The disposition effect and stale limit orders, while present in our sample, do not explain our results. Our findings are consistent with investors’ conservatism, sticky beliefs, and cognitive uncertainty, as well as an incorrect belief in the Law of Small Numbers. |
| Keywords: | Retail investors; Momentum; Conservatism |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20487 |
| By: | Fagereng, Andreas; Guiso, Luigi; Pistaferri, Luigi; Ring, Marius |
| Abstract: | We provide empirical evidence on the importance of a relatively understudied channel of insurance against labor income shocks: transfers from (cash-rich) parents to (cash-short) children when the latter experience negative wage shocks. Matching population data for Norway across two generations, we establish several results. First, parents make a transfer—i.e., run down liquid assets—when adult children experience negative labor income shocks. Consistent with dynastic insurance, we observe no transfers when income shocks are positive. Second, parents’ responses depend on the nature of the shock. If losses are temporary, parents dissave; if they are persistent, parents save in order to make future transfers. Parental transfers offset 43% of temporary and 27% of persistent losses. Third, insurance is lower when children have other smoothing options, like spousal labor supply, and is greater for shocks to their own child versus a child’s spouse. Support also increases if the spouse’s parents can contribute, suggesting “competition for attention.†Lastly, insurance flows are one-way: children do not insure their parents against income losses. |
| Keywords: | Income shocks; Insurance; Intergenerational transfers |
| JEL: | D31 E21 E24 G11 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20632 |
| By: | Harrison, Ann; Wang, Peichun; Zhao, Minyuan; Meyer, Marshall W.; Zhao, Linda |
| Abstract: | The majority of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China were privatized through ownership reforms over the last three decades. Using a comprehensive dataset of all medium and large enterprises in China between 1998 and 2013, we show that privatized SOEs continue to benefit from government support relative to private enterprises. Compared to private firms that were never state-owned, privatized SOEs are favored by lower interest loans and higher government subsidies. Moreover, both SOEs and privatized SOEs significantly underperform relative to private firms, despite some improvements post-privatization. An exception is in improvements in productivity growth, where former SOEs match or exceed their private sector counterparts–results consistent with recent research. We also implement staggered difference-in-differences and matching estimation to account for treatment over multiple periods and selection into privatization. The tiger can change its stripes; however, former SOEs face a more supportive industrial policy regime relative to their private sector counterparts, affecting their performance. |
| Keywords: | China |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20485 |
| By: | Andries, Marianne; Bonelli, Maxime; Sraer, David |
| Abstract: | We study an intervention by a brokerage firm providing advisory services to high-net- worth investors. In 2018, the firm changed the information displayed on its internal platform, so that financial advisors could no longer observe which clients’ holdings were in paper gain or loss. Using data on portfolio stock transactions between 2016 and 2021, we show that, while all investors exhibit a significant disposition effect before 2018, i.e., a greater propensity to realize gains than losses, highly-advised investors see their bias significantly reduced afterward. Our paper shows that by appropriately manipulating advisors’ information, financial firms can successfully reduce their clients’ biases. |
| JEL: | G4 G5 D14 G11 G24 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20496 |
| By: | Antonin Pottier (EHESS); Emmanuel Combet (ADEME); Simona de Lauretis (EDF Ð CIRED) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the differential contributions of men and women to consumption- based emissions. The effect of gender on GHG emissions is difficult to assess because it correlates with other determinants, such as income and the size and composition of household that people are part of. We review the scant evidence available in the literature, with equivocal results. Using consumption-based emissions of French households, we show that pooling households of different size and composition cannot provide reliable estimates of the effect of gender of the head of household on emissions. Our empirical strategy therefore focuses on one-person households. With multi-variate regressions, we find that, other things being equal, there is no significant difference between single men and women, provided they are younger than 80. Women over 80 years old emit less than their male counterparts, a difference which can be traced back to their very low usage of car. |
| Keywords: | inequality, GHG emissions, carbon footprint, gender, households, income and expenditure survey |
| JEL: | D12 D14 D30 D31 J16 Q56 R20 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2025.09 |
| By: | Zineb El Alaoui (Faculté des sciences juridiques économiques et sociales de Salé Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc); Mohamed Karim (Faculté des sciences juridiques économiques et sociales de Salé Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc) |
| Abstract: | In a context of increasing budgetary constraints and growing demands for accountability, Results-Based Management (RBM) has emerged as a central lever for modernizing public administrations in both OECD and developing countries. In Morocco, the enactment of Organic Law No. 130-13 on the Finance Law introduced a budget governance framework oriented towards performance, transparency, and accountability. However, the gap between the ambitions of this reform and its operational implementation remains insufficiently documented in the literature. This article aims to analyze the contributions and limitations of RBM in the Moroccan administrative context, using a qualitative, analytical, and documentary approach based on three pillars: a critical review of the scientific literature, an examination of institutional reports, and an international comparison with performance-based budgeting systems in OECD countries. The findings show that RBM has led to notable advances in multi-year planning, budget transparency, and the introduction of a performance culture. However, its scope remains limited by persistent structural constraints, including insufficient institutional capacities, the predominance of a procedural administrative culture, and weak political ownership of performance mechanisms. The contribution of this article lies in the articulation between the New Public Management theoretical framework, international lessons, and an in-depth analysis of the Moroccan case, enabling the identification of the institutional, organizational, and cultural conditions under which RBM can serve as a sustainable lever for improving public performance in a developing country context. |
| Abstract: | Dans un contexte de contraintes budgétaires croissantes et de pressions accrues en faveur de la reddition des comptes, la gestion axée sur les résultats (GAR) s'impose comme un levier central de modernisation des administrations publiques, tant dans les pays de l'OCDE que dans les pays en développement. Au Maroc, la promulgation de la Loi Organique n° 130-13 relative à la Loi de Finances a introduit un cadre de gouvernance budgétaire orienté vers la performance, la transparence et la redevabilité. Cependant, l'écart entre les ambitions de cette réforme et sa traduction opérationnelle demeure insuffisamment documenté dans la littérature. Cet article vise à analyser les apports et les limites de la GAR dans le contexte administratif marocain, en mobilisant une approche qualitative, analytique et documentaire fondée sur trois piliers : une revue critique de la littérature scientifique, l'examen de rapports institutionnels et une comparaison internationale avec les dispositifs de budgétisation axée sur la performance au sein des pays de l'OCDE. Les résultats de l'analyse montrent que la GAR a permis des avancées notables en matière de planification pluriannuelle, de transparence budgétaire et d'introduction d'une culture de performance. Toutefois, sa portée demeure limitée par des contraintes structurelles persistantes, notamment l'insuffisance des capacités institutionnelles, la prédominance d'une culture administrative procédurale et la faible appropriation politique du dispositif de performance. La contribution de cet article réside dans l'articulation entre cadre théorique du New Public Management, enseignements internationaux et analyse approfondie du cas marocain, permettant de dégager les conditions institutionnelles, organisationnelles et culturelles sous lesquelles la GAR peut constituer un levier durable d'amélioration de la performance publique dans un contexte de pays en développement. |
| Keywords: | public performance, gestion axée sur les résultats, performance publique, réforme budgétaire, gouvernance, administration marocaine. JEL Classification : H61 H83 D73 O17. Type du papier : Étude documentaire et comparative results-based management, Moroccan administration. Classification JEL: H61 H83 D73 O17, budget reform, governance, O17, Moroccan administration. Classification JEL: H61, O17. Type du papier : Étude documentaire et comparative results-based management, D73, H83, administration marocaine. JEL Classification : H61 |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05611844 |
| By: | Wilp, Susanne Bleier |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theoretical synthesis of sex work, drug policy and HIV in Eastern and Southeastern Europe - a region that fits neither the governance typology of the Global North nor the self-organisation typology of the Global South developed in two companion papers. The region's defining feature is the intersection of sex work with injecting drug use under double criminalisation, governed in much of the post-Soviet space not by criminal law in the strict sense but by a distinct administrative-offence regime inherited from the late Soviet period. Eastern Europe and Central Asia is, alongside the Middle East/North Africa and Latin America, one of three world regions where new HIV infections have risen rather than fallen since 2010. Two axes structure the analysis. The first traces the postsocialist legal-epidemiological complex from its administrative-law foundations through Tim Rhodes' risk environment framework - developed in this region - to the catastrophic 2014 Crimean methadone ban and the contrasting resilience of Ukraine's wartime opioid agonist treatment system. The second traces an inverted extraterritorial axis: where the Northern paper found US power exercised through platform law and the Southern paper through the PEPFAR pledge, this region experiences the abrupt 2025 withdrawal of PEPFAR/USAID funding colliding with an indigenous Russian counter-power - 'traditional values' politics and foreign-agent legislation that actively suppresses sex worker self-organisation (SWAN, Silver Rose, Legalife-Ukraine) rather than merely leaving it unfunded. A cross-cutting axis examines Southeastern Europe and intra-EU mobility, where Romania's collapse from Global Fund eligibility to antiretroviral supply crises shows treatment access becoming a function of residency and funding status rather than medical need - a pattern this paper extends to the underexamined situation of HIV-positive sex workers who return from Western Europe to Romania or Bulgaria. The paper argues that the postsocialist risk environment constitutes a fourth, structurally distinct case: neither self-built protective infrastructure as in the South nor institutionalised labour-law normalisation as in the North, but a terrain where both state and self-organised protection remain precarious against external shocks - war, funding withdrawal, and authoritarian repression alike. Companion papers DE https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/df43j_v1 https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/ckru6_v1 EN https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/uc57b_v1 https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/tysjx_v1 |
| Date: | 2026–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d8svw_v1 |
| By: | Davis, Steven; Hansen, Stephen; Seminario-Amez, Cristhian |
| Abstract: | Macro shocks produce high dispersion in firm-level equity returns, sales growth, and other outcomes. We show that this dispersion reflects observable differences in business characteristics. To do so, we combine firm-level returns on stock market ``jump" days with text about business risks in prior 10-K filings to construct firm-specific shock exposures. Our exposure measures explain firm-level abnormal returns through interpretable variation in language. They also explain most of the increased dispersion in firm-level revenue growth after major shocks and much of the dispersion in employment growth, investment rates, and earnings surprises. Our evidence yields a novel interpretation for countercyclical dispersion, highlighting the key role of heterogeneous business characteristics in macro shock transmission. |
| Keywords: | Firm heterogeneity; Text data; Machine learning; Shock identification |
| JEL: | C55 E30 L20 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20358 |
| By: | Kirchsteiger, Georg; Lenaerts, Tom; Suchon, Remi |
| Abstract: | Experimental evidence shows that in a repeated dilemma setting cooperation is more likely in small matching groups than in large ones. This result holds even if cooperation is an equilibrium outcome for all investigated group sizes. But what happens if small matching groups are merged to become large ones? Our paper is based on the idea that due to behavioral spillovers, a large group created by a merger of small groups is more likely to cooperate than a large group of similar size that is created directly. We tested this idea experimentally in the context of an infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma game. We compared the cooperation behavior of groups that result from mergers of smaller groups with the cooperation behavior of groups with constant group size. We found that cooperation levels were significantly higher in large groups that resulted from gradual growth than in large groups of the same size that were directly created. Looking at the individual behavior, we see that more subjects adopt lenient strategies when the group size increases than when it is already large from the beginning. Hence, our results confirm the idea that cooperation is much more likely to be achieved when groups grow from small to large than when large groups are formed directly. |
| Keywords: | Prisoner's dilemma |
| JEL: | C73 C92 D23 D90 L22 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20326 |
| By: | Rueda, Valeria; Wilemme, Guillaume |
| Abstract: | Dual-career couples can struggle to balance career growth with finding a location that works for both spouses. We investigate how colocation constraints shape the careers of husbands and wives. We document empirically that, after relocating, wives tend to switch to less rewarding careers. Next, we build a parsimonious job search model in which colocation constraints force couples to sacrifice the career of one spouse. The model generates career switches both before and after relocating, as couples anticipate future career prospects. Replicating the stylised facts, the calibrated model shows that colocation constraints amplify gender gaps in careers. |
| Keywords: | Gender inequality; Geographic mobility; Occupational mobility; Search and matching frictions |
| JEL: | D1 J16 J24 J61 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20614 |
| By: | Christoph Böhringer; Bengt Kriström |
| Abstract: | In light of sharply rising international electricity prices, Sweden as a major electricity-exporting country has considered export restrictions to protect its domestic electricity- and export-intensive industries. We employ a computable general equilibrium model calibrated to Swedish data to quantify the economy-wide impacts of export restrictions. We find that while export restrictions may protect domestic electricity- and export-intensive industries, they lead to substantial foregone export revenues and overall welfare losses. Targeted subsidies to employment or output in these industries, on the other hand, can achieve identical protective effects as export restrictions while preserving most of the gains from trade. The analysis also highlights the distributional consequences of electricity price increases, underscoring the need for policymakers to consider potential equity implications. |
| Keywords: | electricity price shocks, export restrictions, subsidies, computable general equilibrium analysis |
| JEL: | Q48 D58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12765 |