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on Investment |
| By: | Aikaterini E. Karadimitropoulou; Tryfonas Christou; Michael Chletsos; Alexandros P. Bechlioulis |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether minimum wage reforms affect income inequality among low-wage workers. We construct a novel “within-occupation” measure of wage dispersion, using a Greek dataset between 2010 and 2020. Using modern difference-in-differences analysis for causal inference, our findings show non-symmetrical effects on wage dispersion when a minimum wage reform is imposed. In particular, the minimum wage cut of 2012 did not alter the wage dispersion of low-wage workers, while the minimum wage increase of 2019 led to a decrease in wage inequality at the bottom segment of the labor market. Our paper equips policymakers with a solid understanding of the effects of minimum wage reforms on wage inequality and highlights the important role of wage rigidities in shaping these effects. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, wage inequality, minimum wage reform; modern difference-in-difference analysis; quantile regression |
| JEL: | C31 J08 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:209 |
| By: | Jung Min Han (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, most key indices of the Manufacturing Business Survey Index (BSI) remained below the baseline of 100, with both the business conditions and sales indices at 79. By sector, most industrial groups reported weaker sales and export sentiment, particularly the electronic products, steel, textiles, and refined petroleum products sectors. Declines in the BSI scores for the semiconductors, ICT, and secondary batteries industries were modest, however, indicating some resilience in those sectors.<p> The outlook for Q2 suggests that manufacturers anticipate business conditions to improve substantially over Q1, with business conditions projected ot sit at 90 and sales at 93, respectively. Improvements in other indices are likely to be concentrated a handful of key sectors, such as semicondcutors, shipbuilding, and ICT. |
| Keywords: | business survey index; BSI; manufacturing BSI; macroeconomics; macroeconomic outlook; macroeconomic forecasting; economic forecasting; business trends; business sentiment; South Korea |
| JEL: | L16 E66 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:022849 |
| By: | Eun Kyo Cho (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Chuel Cho (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Woo Jung Shim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Sangsoo Park (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Advanced manufacturing industries targeted by the Made in China 2025 strategy, such as robots, semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs, including autonomous driving), and batteries, have grown exponentially since 2015. With the exception of semiconductors, several categories within robots, batteries, and EVs have exceeded the localization targets outlined in the strategy. China now holds an overall value chain advantage over South Korea in these sectors. Across R&D, procurement (supply chain), production, services, and demand markets (both domestic and overseas), China maintains an edge in robots, EVs, batteries, and autonomous vehicles. Korea retains superiority in equipment procurement, sales and maintenance services, and overseas demand for the semiconductor industry, driven by its memory chip competitiveness. Korea also maintains a slight lead in robotics R&D capabilities for product development and design.<p> While the expanding rivalry poses threats to Korean industries, opportunities exist to differentiate in advanced and niche markets. China’s price competitiveness, its expanding dominance in new AI-based markets, and its internalizing supply chains are common threats. However, leveraging its overall technological prowess and process expertise in materials, components, and equipment, Korea maintains a qualitative advantage in certain categories. Korea must seek to enter global premium markets, such as the US and the EU, emphasizing stability and reliability.<p> Up to now, Korean industry has pursued an “ultra-gap” strategy, in which firms sought to maintain wide competitive moats against their Chinese competitors. This strategy is no longer viable. Korea urgently needs to shift its policy toward competitive cooperation and strategic utilization, and secure a position in the future ecosystems that China aims to dominate, actively utilizing China’s high-tech and technological ecosystems. We must discover new cooperative models that combine China’s technology, production base, and data with Korea’s innovative ideas. |
| Keywords: | China; Chinese manufacturing; manufacturing industry; advanced manufacturing; robots; semiconductors; electric vehicles; EVs; batteries; competition; competition policy; competitiveness; Korea-China c |
| JEL: | F13 F23 F53 L60 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:022842 |
| By: | Daniel Haanwinckel |
| Abstract: | This paper asks whether regional wage differences can identify the effects of a national minimum wage. I study two common exposure-based approaches: effective-minimum-wage designs, which compare the minimum wage to contemporaneous local wages, and fraction-affected/gap designs, which measure pre-reform exposure to the new minimum. Using theory, simulations, and evidence from Brazil, I show when these approaches can mislead and how their performance depends on specification choices. The results lead to practical recommendations for applied researchers, including when to avoid these designs, how to test their assumptions, which specifications are more reliable, and how similar concerns may apply to other settings. |
| JEL: | C52 J08 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35298 |
| By: | Jieun Jung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | As the advanced biopharmaceutical industry becomes a cornerstone of health security, cell and gene therapy (CGT) has emerged as a major sub-field with significant industrial and economic growth potential.<p> This paper analyzes the industrial competitiveness of the CGT sector in seven major countries, revealing that the South Korean CGT sector lags in terms of industrial competitiveness, with an industrial competitiveness index score of just 4.81 points, trailing the first-place United States (9.61) by a significant margin. The study also finds that Korea suffers from a brain drain of doctoral talent and a clinical trial structure skewed toward legacy therapies, and finds a lack of Korean products approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) of the United States.<p> Korea also offers fewer government subsidies compared to its competitors. Furthermore, 12 of 16 key items in the materials, parts, and equipment (MPE) sector are import-dependent, creating a potentially fatal supply chain vulnerability.<p> To address these issues, Korea must focus on three short-term goals: cultivating a skilled workforce, localizing the production of key MPE, and diversifying imports. In the medium to long term, it is essential to foster domestic talent with skills across disciplines and promote mission-oriented R&D to widen competitive advantages and establish global supply chain leadership. |
| Keywords: | biotech; biotechnology; biotech industry; pharma; R&D; competitiveness; competition policy; South Korea; cell therapy; gene therapy |
| JEL: | L65 O34 O38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:022843 |
| By: | Joshua S. Gans |
| Abstract: | Workers sometimes enjoy productive tasks and voluntarily devote unpaid time to them. We study O-ring jobs in which firms can either price a complete task bundle or specify paid task floors while workers remain free to add time. For any allocation supported by both hourly contracts, the wage bill is identical: voluntary top-up is not a discount. The contracts differ because paid floors cannot cap attractive tasks below the worker's voluntary supply. This implementability constraint adds a containment motive for automation alongside replacement and scale effects. It also makes payroll measures incomplete: conditional on a common automated set and a common AI technology, jobs with the same payroll footprint can differ in worked time and task mix. Rich salaried bundle pricing removes the hourly-contract distortion. |
| JEL: | J22 J24 J31 J33 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35309 |
| By: | Mansourihanis, Omid; Wang, Xuantong |
| Abstract: | Urban morphology has traditionally been studied through single-layer Euclidean descriptors, yet the cross-scale architecture of cities — how parcels, buildings, and blocks cohere hierarchically — remains poorly quantified. This paper develops a hierarchical fractal framework that simultaneously characterizes self-similarity, multifractality, and cross-scale coherence at three nested morphological scales. Using a 2020 geodatabase of 134, 863 census blocks across four U.S. megacities (New York, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles) containing 7.3 million parcel polygons and 4.4 million building footprints, we compute box-counting fractal dimensions, gliding-box lacunarity, and the multifractal spectrum f(α) at block, parcel, and building scales. We introduce three novel indices — the Multifractal Heterogeneity Score (MHS), the Fractal Harmony Index (FHI), and Cross-Scale Consistency (CSC) — to operationalize hierarchical coherence. Pooled and city-stratified models reveal that hierarchical-fractal descriptors explain up to 78% of crash risk variance and 70% of PM2.5 variance, with threshold non-linearities consistent with the Edge-of-Chaos hypothesis. City-specific analyses expose a Simpson’s paradox masked in pooled correlations and demonstrate that effective morphological interventions must be city-tailored. The findings argue for a shift from single-layer Euclidean planning to complexity-informed design anchored in cross-scale fractal balance. |
| Date: | 2026–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:85zr7_v1 |
| By: | Emmanuelle Amann (LS2N - équipe CPS3 - Conception, Pilotage, Surveillance et Supervision des systèmes - LS2N - Laboratoire des Sciences du Numérique de Nantes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes univ - UFR ST - Nantes université - UFR des Sciences et des Techniques - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Arnaud Laurent (LS2N - équipe CPS3 - Conception, Pilotage, Surveillance et Supervision des systèmes - LS2N - Laboratoire des Sciences du Numérique de Nantes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes univ - UFR ST - Nantes université - UFR des Sciences et des Techniques - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Nasser Mebarki (LS2N - équipe CPS3 - Conception, Pilotage, Surveillance et Supervision des systèmes - LS2N - Laboratoire des Sciences du Numérique de Nantes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes univ - UFR ST - Nantes université - UFR des Sciences et des Techniques - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates a load balancing problem within the context of postal sorting operations at La Poste, the French postal service. Faced with declining mail volumes, La Poste must reorganize its processes to maintain service quality and operational efficiency. Mail sorting is modeled as a Simple Assembly Line Balancing Problem (SALBP-2), where mail items (tasks) are assigned to containers (stations) in a way that minimizes load imbalances while respecting precedence constraints. These constraints take the form of independent chains, as each mail route follows a fixed delivery sequence. We propose three resolution methods: an exact approach based on a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) formulation, a metaheuristic algorithm based on simulated annealing, and a fast heuristic designed for industrial deployment which exploits the precedence constraint structure for faster convergence. The metaheuristic and the heuristic are tested on academic and real-world datasets much larger than those commonly used in the literature. In order to use them several times a day, the resolution method needs to be fast in terms of calculation time. Due to its strong performance and low computation time, the heuristic we propose has been implemented on industrial platforms at La Poste and is now used daily. |
| Keywords: | post, Mail sorting, load smoothing, balancing, optimization, MILP, assembly line, heuristic |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05409410 |
| By: | Frédéric Bonin (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Meriem Fournier (SILVA - SILVA - AgroParisTech - UL - Université de Lorraine - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Benoît Grasser (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine); Myriam Legay (SILVA - SILVA - AgroParisTech - UL - Université de Lorraine - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This study shows how climate change profoundly reshapes forest planning routines. Based on a French state forest case study, it demonstrates a shift from rigid, long-term planning toward adaptive planning built on shorter cycles, continuous monitoring through remote sensing, and renewed governance that strengthens coordination within forest administrations and with external stakeholders. Context: Climate change fundamentally challenges the foundations of traditional forest planning, which has long relied on stable ecological baselines, long-term predictability, and deterministic planning cycles. Increasing disturbances such as droughts, pests, and large-scale dieback undermine these assumptions and create conditions of prolonged uncertainty, rendering conventional planning increasingly ineffective. Aims: We explored how forest planners adapt their practices to cope with this prolonged uncertainty and provide emerging alternatives, through the theoretical framework of organizational routines to analyze both stability and change. Methods: We conducted an in-depth single-case study of a French state forest, combining interviews, field observations, and analysis of management documents. Using an abductive and processual approach, we traced the sequencing of actions, actors, and artifacts to understand how forest planning routines evolve in practice. Results: We identify three major shifts: the shortening of planning cycles to reduce long-term obsolescence; the integration of continuous monitoring enabled by remote sensing technologies; and the redesign of governance arrangements to enhance internal coordination and stakeholder engagement. Conclusion: Forest planning is transitioning from a fixed long-term roadmap toward an adaptive, continuously updated process designed to cope with persistent uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Prolonged uncertainty, Forest planning, Monitoring, Organizational routine, Pattern |
| Date: | 2026–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05642036 |
| By: | Damian Lebied\'z; Robert \'Slepaczuk |
| Abstract: | This study aims to determine whether the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as a specialized execution overlay can enhance pair trading in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets. Although classical implementations of the strategy have proven successful in traditional equities, they frequently exhibit rigidity and suffer from severe divergence risks when applied to high-variance environments. To address this need, this research introduces novel concepts. To construct a robust system, we developed a hierarchical "Filter-then-Rank" pair selection methodology and a proprietary "Fixed Risk, Adaptive Mean" execution model. The system employs a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) layer to govern execution decisions within strict deterministic risk management boundaries. Evaluated on 1-hour interval data from the Binance USD-M Futures market, the optimized RL policy achieved an out-of-sample performance that substantially outperformed the heuristic baseline. A stationary circular block bootstrap robustness check confirms that the agent's risk-adjusted outperformance is statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Although falling marginally short of the stricter 5 percent threshold, this result highlights the extreme idiosyncratic variance characteristic of digital assets. Ultimately, this thesis contributes to the quantitative finance literature by introducing a hybrid architecture that combines statistical arbitrage with DRL execution policies. Furthermore, it delivers a novel framework for safe reinforcement learning via deterministic shielding, proving that anchoring a neural policy to statistically robust boundaries successfully mitigates severe divergence risks. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.04574 |
| By: | Sengupta, Atanu; Seth, Ujjwal |
| Abstract: | Gig workers are a midway between entrepreneurs and workers. They are called gig service providers since their income depend on the quantum of job or gig (Radhakrishnan and Roy 2023) . They are defined by “short-term, flexible, and freelance arrangement” (Sharma and Sharma 2025). They often use digital platforms linking independent workers and consumers (Koustimpogiorgos et.al. 2020). They are not considered as workers berefting them from any regular facilities (such as pensions, job securities, ailment benefits, accidental insurance and so on). Numerous studies have focussed on their role in the economy and their socio-economic status. Unfortunately, most of the studies take the form of case studies and/or qualitative analysis. Very few all-India level large scale study is available. This paper is a modest attempt to correct this lacuna. Using a large scale India level study reveals differences in geographical asymmetries, gender and group inequalities, impact of educational attainment of the gig workers’ income and so on. |
| Keywords: | Gig Workers; Platform Economy; Earnings Differentials; Gender Wage Gap; Social Groups; Religion; Informal Employment; PLFS; India. |
| JEL: | J21 |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129375 |
| By: | Jakub Sokołowski; Stefan Bouzarovski |
| Abstract: | Collective decisions to retrofit multi-family residential buildings require co-owners to agree on how the total cost is divided among dwellings, yet the distributional properties of alternative allocation rules have been insufficiently investigated at scale. Using harmonised Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) microdata covering over 4 million apartments in almost 450, 000 buildings across Poland, England and Wales, and the Netherlands, we simulate five allocation rules: area-proportional, progressive-area, emissions-proportional, inefficiency-proportional, and Shapley-value allocation. For each building, we evaluate the resulting cost-share distributions using within-building inequality indices, size-progressivity measures, and cooperative-game-theoretic stability criteria. We find that performance-based rules produce within-building Gini coefficients 2 to 11 times higher than area-proportional allocation, with systematic variation across national building stocks. These rules are also less proportional in terms of dwelling size, assigning larger cost shares to smaller dwellings than their floor-area shares warrant. For retrofit governance in multi-owner buildings, allocation design should therefore be treated as a central component of policy implementation rather than a technical-administrative choice. |
| Keywords: | multi-family housing; energy-efficiency retrofits; cost allocation; Shapley value; cooperative game theory; Energy Performance Certificates |
| JEL: | D63 Q48 R31 C71 H23 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp042026 |
| By: | Prince Poudel |
| Abstract: | The standard generalization bounds assume that the training and deployment distributions are the same, or are static, and don't consider regime switching environments where the ratio of calm vs crisis states is different. This paper proposes a framework that generalizes regime-aware models by quantifying the extra risk due to regime composition mismatch, when distribution shifts are Markov-switching. We obtain an exact decomposition, separating regime mismatch from regime sensitivity; we extend the bound to beta-mixing data using the effective sample size corrected for the spectral gap; and we show a minimax lower bound for synthetic data and on 25 years of global equity indices. The proposed penalty is an ex post realized generalization gap, whereas the training-only estimator does not show significant correlation: the feature geometry of crises can be detected, but not the temporal arrival. Thus, the framework is not a forecast machine. Forecasting the composition of the future regime is an open question in the rare cases of regime change. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.02657 |
| By: | Lionel Nesta (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | La question du décrochage productif européen s'est imposée avec une force nouvelle dans le débat public au cours des derniers mois. Certes, plusieurs travaux avaient déjà attiré l'attention sur l'affaiblissement relatif de l'économie européenne (e.g. Gallois, 2012). Mais plus récemment, le rapport Draghi (Draghi, 2024) a donné à cette inquiétude une portée politique et institutionnelle inédite en soulignant le déficit d'investissement et les fragilités de compétitivité de l'Union européenne. Dans le même temps, des contributions plus analytiques sont venues documenter ce diagnostic. Les Policy brief de l'OFCE (Bock et al. 2024 ; 2025b) mettent ainsi en évidence l'élargissement de l'écart de PIB par habitant entre la zone euro et les États-Unis, tandis que les travaux de Bergeaud (2024) ont montré, dans une perspective de plus longue période, la divergence des trajectoires de productivité. Mais ce qui était jusque-là surtout porté par des rapports et des travaux spécialisés est désormais devenu un objet de discussion de premier plan. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05626126 |
| By: | Laurent Guilleminault (Infinity - Institut Toulousain des Maladies Infectieuses et Inflammatoires - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EPE UT - Université de Toulouse - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse, UTPS - Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier - Faculté de médecine Purpan - EPE UT - Université de Toulouse - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse); Gaëlle Le Moine (MSD France); Fabrice Ruiz (ClinSearch [Malakoff, France]); Abdelkrim Ziad (ClinSearch [Malakoff, France]); Marcel Goldberg (CONSTANCES - Cohortes épidémiologiques en population - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - Université Paris-Saclay - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Marie Zins (CONSTANCES - Cohortes épidémiologiques en population - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - Université Paris-Saclay - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Nicolas Roche (Hôpital Cochin [AP-HP] - AP-HP - Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP), IC UM3 (UMR 8104 / U1016) - Institut Cochin - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité) |
| Abstract: | Background: The epidemiological, clinical and medico-economic burden of unexplained or refractory chronic cough (URCC) is poorly known. Objective: To describe sociodemographic characteristics, clinical impact, healthcare resource utilisation and associated costs in French patients with URCC. Methods: Populations of interest (chronic cough, URCC, controls) were identified from the general population-based Constances cohort (124 565 participants at the time of study inception) and invited to answer a specific ad hoc questionnaire on cough. Their healthcare resource utilisation data were extracted from the National Healthcare Database System. Results: Populations of interest were identified among participants for whom data and questionnaire responses were available (n=5277): URCC (n=116), non-URCC (n=1357) and no chronic cough (reference group; n=3804). The extrapolated frequencies of chronic cough and URCC in the Constances cohort were 3.8% and 0.22%, respectively. URCC was mainly associated with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (31.0%) and asthma/COPD (18.3%). Depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale score ≥16) were significantly more frequent in patients with URCC than in controls (43.0% versus 24.0%, p=0.0036). Over the previous 12 months, the mean number of medical visits was higher in the URCC group than in controls (9.1 versus 6.0, p=0.0002). Treatment for underlying conditions of interest were also more frequent in the URCC group. Compared to controls, a 36% increase in medical visits and a four times increase in treatments of underlying conditions of interest were observed in the URCC group. Conclusions: URCC is associated with an important clinical impact and high healthcare resource utilisation and associated costs. The burden of URCC is significant and remains an unmet medical need. |
| Date: | 2026–03–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05625500 |
| By: | Andreas Haufler (LMU Munich); Bernhard Kassner (LMU Munich) |
| Abstract: | We set up a simple theoretical model in which banks with varying degrees of government support are matched with CEOs that have different degrees of overconfidence. The channel through which the matching occurs is the share of bonus payments offered by banks in their profit-maximizing contracts. This yields a sequence of hypotheses when CEOs can freely choose risk levels: banks with more government support incentivize their CEOs more and this disproportionately attracts overconfident CEOs. In equilibrium this in turn leads to an assortative matching between overconfident managers and banks with a larger bailout probability. We then test the hypotheses derived from this model for U.S. data spanning both the Great Financial Crisis and the Covid Crisis. Our results confirm the hypotheses from our theoretical model for normal years, but not during crises and periods of enhanced regulation. |
| Keywords: | matching; overconfidence; incentive contracts; bailouts; |
| JEL: | G21 G28 H32 |
| Date: | 2026–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:577 |
| By: | Sekimonyo, Jo M.; Casimir, Tara |
| Abstract: | This paper reexamines the foundations of business cycle theory by proposing that macroeconomic instability arises endogenously from the structural organization of production, distribution, and finance rather than from exogenous shocks or nominal frictions. It introduces the Distribution–Leverage Cycle (DLC), a framework in which cyclical dynamics emerge from the interaction between surplus distribution and leverage accumulation. The analysis identifies the distribution gap, defined as the divergence between productive capacity and effective demand, as a central mechanism driving instability. This gap emerges when surplus is concentrated among claimants with relatively low propensities to consume, including financial, entrepreneurial, and knowledge-based capital, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence. Credit expansion acts as a compensatory mechanism that sustains demand in the short run while increasing leverage and financial fragility over time. To provide a micro-foundation for surplus allocation, the paper builds on the concept of Socially Necessary Participation (SNP), defined as the institutional recognition of participation in value creation as the basis for claims on surplus. In this framework, macroeconomic instability reflects both demand imbalances and a structural decoupling between participation and entitlement to income. When participation is displaced, especially through technological change, credit substitutes for income and reinforces cyclical dynamics. Financial crises can be interpreted as the endogenous outcome of economies that rely on leverage to offset persistent distributional asymmetries. Building on Ethosism, a normative institutional framework, the paper extends this approach to examine how alignment between participation and surplus allocation can be restored through mechanisms such as profit-sharing, broadened ownership, and incentive-compatible distributive structures. By integrating distribution, leverage, and participation, the DLC framework moves beyond equilibrium-centered macroeconomic models and characterizes business cycles as structural and endogenous features of modern economies. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles; Distribution–Leverage Cycle (DLC); Socially Necessary Participation (SNP); Surplus distribution; Leverage dynamics; Artificial intelligence and capital; Endogenous instability; Financial fragility; Macroeconomic structuralism; Political economy |
| JEL: | B5 B52 D31 E12 E21 E32 E44 G01 O33 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129008 |
| By: | Ruth Alejandra Patiño Jacinto; Erich Alberto Pinzón Fuchs; Alisson Camila Espitia Torres; Maryuri Dayana Pai Cortes; Geraldine Stephania Contreras Cano; Laura Ximena Márquez Ramírez; Andrea Viviana Jiménez Mahecha; Whitney Valeria Pérez Mancilla |
| Abstract: | This document arises from the research project ‘Formulation of comprehensive gender, diversity and inclusion policies in the FCE: Conceptual and methodological framework’ and responds to the need for a diagnosis of the student body of the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the National University of Colombia, in order to create policies and concrete actions consistent with the characteristics of the student population in terms of age, gender and sexual diversity, family composition, academic environment, socio-economic conditions, access to university welfare, among others. This diagnosis is carried out by means of a survey that is answered by 1543 undergraduate and 147 postgraduate students, corresponding to 53% and 42% respectively. It was identified that there are important problems in socio-economic issues, discrimination and mental health, mainly. |
| Keywords: | student; socio-economic conditions; mental health |
| JEL: | I00 I20 I30 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000176:022778 |
| By: | Pawel Adrjan (Indeed); Yusuke Aoki (Indeed); Gabriele Ciminelli (Asian Development Bank); Robin Döttling (Erasmus University of Rotterdam); Sílvia Garcia-Mandicó (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of digital and artificial intelligence (AI) skill demand across six economies in Asia and the Pacific between 2019 and 2024 using millions of online job postings from Indeed and a large language model to classify them by their required level of digital and AI proficiency. Digital skill requirements are widespread across the occupational distribution and have expanded most rapidly in traditionally low and mid digital jobs, pointing to broad technological diffusion. Jobs requiring higher digital proficiency command substantially higher pay, even when comparing job postings within the same job title and controlling for cognitive, interpersonal, organizational, and technical skill requirements. We estimate wage premia of approximately 4%, 11%, and 26% for basic, intermediate, and advanced digital skills, respectively, with intermediate and advanced digital skills commanding larger premia than many other highly rewarded skills. We also document a sharp increase in demand for AI-related competencies, particularly those related to the use of AI tools. |
| Keywords: | digital skills;artificial intelligence;online job postings;labor market;wage premium;large language models;Asia and the Pacific |
| JEL: | C55 J24 J30 O15 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:022642 |
| By: | Enoch Hyunwook Kang |
| Abstract: | In the forward reinforcement-learning problem, the reward is fixed and known; the learner is asked to find a good policy or value function. Here we turn the question around. Given offline data generated by an expert, can we recover the reward the expert was optimizing? This is the inverse reinforcement learning problem, and remarkably, two communities, structural econometricians studying dynamic discrete choice (DDC) and machine learners studying entropy-regularized IRL, have been working on exactly the same probabilistic model under different names. We begin by proving their equivalence. We then develop the classical identification result of Magnac and Thesmar and the classical computational paradigms that grew out of it: Rust's nested fixed-point algorithm, the conditional-choice-probability approach of Hotz and Miller, and the two temporal-difference approaches of Adusumilli and Eckardt: linear semi-gradient TD and approximate value iteration. Each route has its limits: dimensionality, transition-kernel estimation, the deadly triad, or projected fixed-point bias. We then walk through the modern ML/IRL strand: adversarial IRL, occupancy matching, IQ-Learn, and offline ML-IRL, deriving each method's actual objective and stating precisely what it does and does not identify. We close with the empirical-risk-minimization framework of Kang et al., which yields a gradient-based estimator for offline IRL/DDC. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.30843 |
| By: | Évariste Floc'Hic (IAE Paris-Est - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Paris-Est - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | Cet article teste l'efficacité de CyberS+, un jeu sérieux pédagogique, comme outil ludopédagogique destiné à préparer la certification CompTIA Security+, référence dans le domaine de la cybersécurité. L'objectif est de rendre l'apprentissage plus engageant que les méthodes traditionnelles telles que les e-learning ou les tests blancs jugées répétitifs. La méthodologie repose sur une expérimentation menée auprès de 30 étudiants en informatique ou en cybersécurité qui sont soumis à un pré-test et un post-test afin d'évaluer l'évolution de leurs connaissances. Les résultats montrent une meilleure acquisition des connaissances, confirmant ainsi l'intérêt pédagogique du dispositif. Toutefois, il convient d'apporter des nuances à ces résultats positifs dans la mesure où l'échantillon testé est relativement restreint, la durée des expérimentations a été limitée et le faible nombre de questions permettait une mémorisation des bonnes réponses sans compréhension avérée. CyberS+ démontre néanmoins qu'un jeu sérieux pédagogique peut compléter des méthodes plus traditionnelles de révisions. Il serait donc intéressant d'imaginer une articulation entre révisions classiques et jeux sérieux pédagogiques sur le long terme en identifiant les points forts de chacune des méthodes afin d'optimiser leur combinaison. |
| Keywords: | serious game, Acquisition de connaissances, Cybersécurité, Ludopédagogie |
| Date: | 2026–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05616783 |
| By: | Pablo Alvarez-Aragon |
| Abstract: | Conventional demographic models systematically overestimate fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper proposes a complementary explanation grounded in a prevalent but understudied belief system: ancestors influence the living and seek the continuation of their lineage, into which they may be reincarnated. In this worldview, having children becomes a moral and collective duty, rooted in the spiritual responsibility to ensure the survival of the lineage. Drawing on first-hand data, novel ethnographic information, and historical and contemporary surveys, I document a strong and quantitatively large positive relationship between ancestral beliefs and fertility across contexts and time periods. A simple model in which children are a public good for the lineage rationalizes the patterns observed in the data: the fertility effect of ancestral beliefs is concentrated in patrilineal societies, and a specific form of free-riding emerges among siblings whose children continue the same family line. These findings suggest that high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa rests on moral foundations that standard, externally designed interventions tend to overlook. |
| JEL: | O12 J13 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1226 |
| By: | Basile Grassi (Bocconi University [Milan, Italy], OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Cet article retrace les grandes évolutions de la structure productive française entre 1949 et 2021, en s'appuyant sur les tableaux des entrées-sorties (TES) produits par l'INSEE. À partir d'indicateurs issus de la comptabilité nationale et de la théorie des réseaux, il propose une lecture quantitative des mutations sectorielles de long terme. Trois dimensions principales sont explorées : l'importance relative des branches dans la création de richesse (mesurée par les poids de Domar), leur degré d'ouverture à l'international (parts d'importations et d'exportations), et leur position dans le réseau de production (upstreamness et connectivité). L'analyse met en évidence un recul structurel de l'agriculture et de l'industrie, compensé par la montée en puissance des services. L'ouverture internationale s'est généralisée, particulièrement dans l'industrie à partir des années 1970. Le réseau productif s'est progressivement reconfiguré autour de branches plus proches de la demande finale, traduisant une tertiarisation de l'économie et une réduction de la complexité des chaînes de valeur domestiques. Enfin, l'étude révèle des dynamiques différenciées au sein même de l'industrie : certaines branches (agroalimentaire, industries traditionnelles) ont décliné, tandis que d'autres (énergie, transports) ont conservé un rôle central. |
| Keywords: | importations, exportations, agriculture, industrie agroalimentaire, réseau de production française |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05626070 |
| By: | Lai, Ching-Chong; Lai, Ting-Wei; Yu, Po-yang |
| Abstract: | Existing studies on Schumpeterian growth theory unanimously specify new entrants’ creative destruction behavior in an ad hoc manner. However, this specification fails to reflect the fact that the replacement of incumbents by new entrants is essentially an optimal decision-making process. To overcome this deficiency, this paper develops a Schumpeterian growth model in which creative destruction arises endogenously from the optimal decision-making of entrant R&D firms, rather than being imposed in an ad hoc manner. The model is then used to examine how R&D-related policies—including patent protection and corporate profit taxation—as well as entry sunk costs affect entrants’ creative-destruction behavior, economic growth, and social welfare. Our theoretical analysis shows that a higher corporate profit tax rate or a higher marginal entry cost reduces the mass of potential new entrants, the optimal probability of creative destruction, and the balanced growth rate, whereas stronger patent protection raises these macroeconomic variables. In addition, our numerical welfare analysis finds that the magnitude of the marginal market entry cost plays a crucial role in determining the optimal levels of patent protection and corporate profit taxation. |
| Keywords: | R&D policies, Creative destruction, Economic growth, Social welfare |
| JEL: | L11 O31 O41 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128983 |
| By: | Bernd Irlenbusch (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence increasingly shapes economic decisions, yet its value depends on whether humans rely on it appropriately. This survey selectively reviews experimental economic evidence (2020 – 2026) on trust in AI, with a focus on privacy, transparency, accountability, fairness, and efficiency. The evidence challenges simple accounts of algorithm aversion or algorithm appreciation. Individuals may underuse beneficial AI because of opacity, autonomy concerns, or institutional distrust, but may also over-rely on deficient systems, disclose excessive data, or delegate responsibility strategically. The survey suggests that trust in AI is best understood as calibrated reliance under informational and institutional constraints. Effective governance should structure informational and institutional environments that help humans calibrate reliance on AI to its actual capabilities, limitations, and social consequences. |
| Keywords: | Trust in AI, calibrated reliance, algorithm aversion, algorithm appreciation, privacy, transparency, accountability, fairness, efficiency |
| JEL: | C90 C91 C92 C93 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:417 |
| By: | Masashige Hamano (Waseda University, School of Political Science and Economics); Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationships between aggregate shocks and individual products in the economy, aiming to inform macroeconomic policy and address sectoral imbalances. Using Japanese man- ufacturing census data from 1992 to 2013, we analyze product sales growth (intensive margins) and the number of product-producing plants (extensive margins) to identify patterns and heterogeneity across products and product categories. We employ a structural model to analyze the sources of product busi- ness cycles, finding that product-specific demand shocks play a crucial role in explaining product sales dynamics, while both product-specific and plant-product specific shocks are essential for understanding extensive margins. Our findings offer important implications for the design of targeted and effective poli- cies that promote stability, growth, employment, and inclusiveness across diverse sectors of the economy. |
| Keywords: | Product Dynamics; Firm Heterogeneity; DSGE |
| JEL: | D24 E23 E32 L11 L60 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2602 |