nep-inv New Economics Papers
on Investment
Issue of 2026–04–13
28 papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Università degli Studi di Teramo


  1. Immigrants at the Margin: Labor Market Effects of the Minimum Wage By Mark Borgschulte; Heepyung Cho; Darren Lubotsky
  2. Institutional specialization By Guimaraes, Bernardo; Sheedy, Kevin D.
  3. Islamic Finance and Green Investment in GCC Countries: Empirical Insights into Sustainable Development Using GMM Estimation By Saida Daly
  4. Optimal Contest Beyond Convexity By Negin Golrezaei; MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi; Suho Shin
  5. A Large-Scale Empirical Comparison of Meta-Learners and Causal Forests for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation in Marketing Uplift Modeling By Aman Singh
  6. Peer vs. Network Effects: Microfoundations, Identification, and Beyond By Zenou, Yves
  7. School Starting Age and the Gender Pay Gap over the Life Cycle By Cygan-Rehm, Kamila; Westphal, Matthias
  8. Tourism management of coastal areas in the Cap-Skirring seaside resort (Senegal) By Aliou Gaye; Iba Diaw
  9. Prediction Arena: Benchmarking AI Models on Real-World Prediction Markets By Jaden Zhang; Gardenia Liu; Oliver Johansson; Hileamlak Yitayew; Kamryn Ohly; Grace Li
  10. Cloud Computing and Extensive Margins of Exports: An Update Using Data for 2025 By Wagner, Joachim
  11. Strategic Intergovernmental Competition in Japan's Hometown Tax Donation System (Furusato Nozei): A Hotelling-Type Model with Household Attachment By Toshiyuki Uemura
  12. "Financial Empowerment and Technological Leap: Research on the Driving Mechanism of Supply Chain Finance on Enterprise Digital Transformation " By Wu Chenxi
  13. Priced risk in corporate bonds By Alexander Dickerson; Philippe Mueller; Cesare Robotti
  14. Coordinating coal plant closures: transient strategic reserves in transitioning energy-only markets By Paul Simshauser; ;
  15. Supporting Small Businesses: A speech at CBA LIVE 26, Consumer Bankers Association, San Diego, California., March 31, 2026 By Michelle W. Bowman
  16. Adversarial Selection By Alma Cohen; Alon Klement; Zvika Neeman; Eilon Solan
  17. The Effects of Training under the Employment Adjustment Subsidy during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan By Takashi Kamihigashi; Corrado Di Guilimi
  18. Too Many Houses, Too Few People : Demographic Optimism, Housing Oversupply, and Falling House Prices across Advanced Economies By DENG, Yongheng; INOUE, Tomoo; NISHIMURA, Kiyohiko; SHIMIZU, Chihiro
  19. English Proficiency and Labor Market Outcomes in New England By Osborne Jackson
  20. Response to the UK Government review of discounting in the Green Book By Cerruti, Stefania
  21. Comment Airbnb a changé le secteur du tourisme By Mustafeed Zaman
  22. Colonial Rule and Religious Change: Evidence from Africa's Colonial Borders By Hector Galindo-Silva
  23. Cultivating Change: Long-Term Effects of Repeated Training on Organic Farming Adoption in Indonesia By Luck, Nathalie; Grimm, Michael; Tamtomo, Kristian
  24. Formal and Informal Labor Demand in Egyptian Manufacturing Firms By El-Haddad, Amirah; Krafft, Caroline; Selwaness, Irene; Assaad, Ragui
  25. Ranking Policies Under Loss Aversion and Inequality Aversion By Martyna Kobus; Radoslaw Kurek; Thomas Parker
  26. Mitigating Mobility Frictions: The Effect of Cash-on-Hand on Labor Mobility By Bekhtiar, Karim; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf
  27. Lego : plus que des jouets, un marché de collection By David Moroz
  28. Councils of Contentment: Works Councils and Income Perceptions By Laszlo Goerke; Sven A. Hartmann; Yue Huang

  1. By: Mark Borgschulte; Heepyung Cho; Darren Lubotsky
    Abstract: We examine the differential effects of minimum wages on immigrant and native workers in the United States. We find that minimum wage increases lead to reduced hours of work among immigrants with no effect on their employment. The effects are concentrated among recently-arrived, likely-undocumented workers in high turnover industries. Native workers show no such response, even when examining native subgroups with similar characteristics to the most affected immigrants. We conclude that affected immigrant labor markets feature low-surplus, low-investment employment relationships with flexible hours, but they are embedded in labor markets where replacement is unusually costly.
    JEL: J08 J15 J38 J42 J61
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35038
  2. By: Guimaraes, Bernardo; Sheedy, Kevin D.
    Abstract: This paper presents a theory of institutional specialization in which some countries uphold the rule of law while others choose extractive institutions, even when countries are ex-ante identical. The driving force of specialization is that for incumbents in each country, the first steps to the rule of law have the greatest cost. Good institutions require sharing power and rents, but in places where power is already shared broadly, each power base or branch of government underpinning institutions is individually less important and thus receives lower rents. Countries with diametrically opposed institutions have a symbiotic relationship in the world equilibrium. The transition from sail to steam-powered vessels in 19th-century trade provides suggestive evidence supporting the theory.
    JEL: F00 O40 P48
    Date: 2024–07–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122547
  3. By: Saida Daly ("Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, Qassim University, P.O. Box 6640, Buraidah 51452, Qassim, Saudi Arabia Department of Economics Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Mahdia, University of Monastir, Monastir 5000, Tunisia" Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: " Objective - This study investigates the role of Islamic finance and green investment in promoting sustainable development in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Grounded in Shariah principles such as risk-sharing and ethical investment, Islamic finance provides a viable framework for supporting environmental transformation. Methodology/Technique – The GCC region provides a relevant context given its strong Islamic financial systems, hydrocarbon dependence, and sustainability-oriented national strategies. Using panel data from 2005 to 2022, the study employs a dynamic panel model estimated through the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to examine the effects of Islamic finance and green investment on CO₂ emissions per capita and renewable energy consumption, while controlling for GDP per capita, trade openness, and institutional quality. Findings – The findings indicate that Islamic finance and green investment significantly reduce emissions while promoting renewable energy adoption. Novelty – This study contributes to the literature by jointly examining their roles in shaping both environmental quality and energy transition in GCC countries, an area that remains underexplored. Type of Paper - Empirical"
    Keywords: Islamic finance, GCC, green investment, sustainability, SDGs, GMM estimation
    JEL: G21 Q43 Q56 O13
    Date: 2026–03–31
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr234
  4. By: Negin Golrezaei; MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi; Suho Shin
    Abstract: In the contest design problem, there are $n$ strategic contestants, each of whom decides an effort level. A contest designer with a fixed budget must then design a mechanism that allocates a prize $p_i$ to the $i$-th rank based on the outcome, to incentivize contestants to exert higher costly efforts and induce high-quality outcomes. In this paper, we significantly deepen our understanding of optimal mechanisms under general settings by considering nonconvex objectives in contestants' qualities. Notably, our results accommodate the following objectives: (i) any convex combination of user welfare (motivated by recommender systems) and the average quality of contestants, and (ii) arbitrary posynomials over quality, both of which may neither be convex nor concave. In particular, these subsume classic measures such as social welfare, order statistics, and (inverse) S-shaped functions, which have received little or no attention in the contest literature to the best of our knowledge. Surprisingly, across all these regimes, we show that the optimal mechanism is highly structured: it allocates potentially higher prize to the first-ranked contestant, zero to the last-ranked one, and equal prizes to the all intermediate contestants, i.e., $p_1 \ge p_2 = \ldots = p_{n-1} \ge p_n = 0$. Thanks to the structural characterization, we obtain a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme given a value oracle. Our technical results rely on Schur-convexity of Bernstein basis polynomial-weighted functions, total positivity and variation diminishing property. En route to our results, we obtain a surprising reduction from a structured high-dimensional nonconvex optimization to a single-dimensional optimization by connecting the shape of the gradient sequences of the objective function to the number of transition points in optimum, which might be of independent interest.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.04844
  5. By: Aman Singh
    Abstract: Estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) at the individual level is central to precision marketing, yet systematic benchmarking of uplift modeling methods at industrial scale remains limited. We present UpliftBench, an empirical evaluation of four CATE estimators: S-Learner, T-Learner, X-Learner (all with LightGBM base learners), and Causal Forest (EconML), applied to the Criteo Uplift v2.1 dataset comprising 13.98 million customer records. The near-random treatment assignment (propensity AUC = 0.509) provides strong internal validity for causal estimation. Evaluated via Qini coefficient and cumulative gain curves, the S-Learner achieves the highest Qini score of 0.376, with the top 20% of customers ranked by predicted CATE capturing 77.7% of all incremental conversions, a 3.9x improvement over random targeting. SHAP analysis identifies f8 as the dominant heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) driver among the 12 anonymized covariates. Causal Forest uncertainty quantification reveals that 1.9% of customers are confident persuadables (lower 95% CI > 0) and 0.1% are confident sleeping dogs (upper 95% CI
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.06123
  6. By: Zenou, Yves (Monash University)
    Abstract: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical foundations of peer and network effects, aiming to bridge insights from both literatures. We first analyze the microfoundations of peer effects through linear–quadratic network games, linking equilibrium behavior to network centrality and highlighting the role of key players. Then, we examine the main identification challenges in linear-in-means models—reflection, correlated effects, and sorting—and show how introducing explicit network structures can help address them. We also review reduced-form strategies based on within-school cohort composition, exposure to peers’ shocks, random assignment, and exogenous variation in network links. Finally, we discuss how structural models of network formation and individual effort choices can resolve endogeneity concerns. The paper concludes with recent advances on non-linear and multiplex interactions, where individuals respond to specific peers and operate across multiple, interdependent layers.
    Keywords: social interactions, identification, network games, centrality, multiplex networks, non-linearities
    JEL: A14 C57 D85 Z13
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18501
  7. By: Cygan-Rehm, Kamila (Dresden University of Technology (TUD)); Westphal, Matthias (FernUni Hagen, RWI)
    Abstract: This paper replicates and extends the evidence on the lifetime effects of school starting age on earnings by Fredriksson and Öckert (2014) for Sweden. Using German data for individuals born between 1945 and 1965, we examine a more rigid system of ability tracking in secondary education, a potential driver of long-term effects. We confirm negligible effects of later school entry for men and positive effects for women. These gender differences arise despite similar effects on educational attainment. By unfolding the gender gaps over the lifecycle, assessing fertility decisions, and maternal employment around the first birth, we show that childbirth postponement and increased labor market attachment after the first birth seem to be plausible mechanisms.
    Keywords: school starting age, lifetime effects, education, gender gaps
    JEL: I21 I24 I26
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18503
  8. By: Aliou Gaye (EVS - Environnement, Ville, Société - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - ENSAL - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ALLHiS - Approches Littéraires, Linguistiques et Historiques des Sources - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne); Iba Diaw (MICA - Médiation, Information, Communication, Art - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne)
    Abstract: Coastal areas are mobile natural environments that are subject to changes in natural phenomena (lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere) and anthropogenic actions, modifying ancient balances and increasing societal vulnerabilities. Shaped by waves, softened or hardened by climate, they are threatened by the forces of nature and human beings. Their sustainable management has become a major concern, especially in African countries weakened by the acceleration of climatic and societal changes. This study focuses on the territorialization and residentialization of the seaside resort of Cap-Skirring, located in the extreme south-west of Senegal. It looks at the anarchic occupation of its coastal areas by tourism, which has become a threat to the coastline even though it contributes to economic development. The aim is to analyze the political, socio-economic and environmental stakes of tourism development on the coast. The methodology used is based on documentary research, participatory observations and the collection of both quantitative and qualitative data. The results show that the development of seaside tourism has led to an increase in the local population, which poses a threat to ecosystems. They also show that the lack of integrated coastal zone management and the absence of a tourism development plan have led to land pressure in the area, potentially causing an ecological crisis.
    Abstract: Les espaces littoraux représentent des milieux naturels mobiles qui sont soumis aux évolutions des phénomènes naturelles (lithosphère, hydrosphère, atmosphère) et des actions anthropiques, modifiant les équilibres anciens et augmentant les vulnérabilités sociétales. Modelés par le déferlement des vagues, adoucis ou endurcis par le climat, ils sont menacés par les forces de la nature et des êtres humains. Leur gestion durable est devenue une préoccupation majeure surtout dans les pays africains fragilisés par l'accélération des changements climatiques et sociétaux. Cette étude s'intéresse particulièrement à la problématique de la territorialisation et de la résidentialisation de la station balnéaire de Cap-Skirring, située à l'extrême Sud-ouest du Sénégal. Elle se penche sur l'occupation anarchique de ses espaces littoraux par le biais du tourisme, devenu une menace pour le littoral même s'il contribue au développement économique. L'objectif est d'analyser les enjeux politiques, socioéconomiques et environnementaux du développement touristique sur le littoral. La méthodologie utilisée est basée sur les recherches documentaires, les observations participatives et la collecte de données aussi bien quantitatives que qualitatives. Les résultats obtenus montrent que le développement du tourisme balnéaire a favorisé l'augmentation de la population locale, ce qui représente une menace pour les écosystèmes. Ils montrent aussi que le manque de gestion intégrée des zones côtières et l'absence de plan d'aménagement touristique ont engendré des pressions foncières dans la zone, pouvant causer une crise écologique.
    Keywords: Management, Cap-Skirring, Ecology, Issues, Coastline, Cap-Skirring Tourism, Écologie, Enjeux, Gestion, Littoral, Tourisme, Tourisme Littoral Gestion Enjeux Écologie Cap-Skirring Tourism Coastline Management Issues Ecology Cap-Skirring
    Date: 2025–04–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05563481
  9. By: Jaden Zhang; Gardenia Liu; Oliver Johansson; Hileamlak Yitayew; Kamryn Ohly; Grace Li
    Abstract: We introduce Prediction Arena, a benchmark for evaluating AI models' predictive accuracy and decision-making by enabling them to trade autonomously on live prediction markets with real capital. Unlike synthetic benchmarks, Prediction Arena tests models in environments where trades execute on actual exchanges (Kalshi and Polymarket), providing objective ground truth that cannot be gamed or overfitted. Each model operates as an independent agent starting with $10, 000, making autonomous decisions every 15-45 minutes. Over a 57-day longitudinal evaluation (January 12 to March 9, 2026), we track two cohorts: six frontier models in live trading (Cohort 1, full period) and four next-generation models in paper trading (Cohort 2, 3-day preliminary). For Cohort 1, final Kalshi returns range from -16.0% to -30.8%. Our analysis identifies a clear performance hierarchy: initial prediction accuracy and the ability to capitalize on correct predictions are the main drivers, while research volume shows no correlation with outcomes. A striking cross-platform contrast emerges from parallel Polymarket live trading: Cohort 1 models averaged only -1.1% on Polymarket vs. -22.6% on Kalshi, with grok-4-20-checkpoint achieving a 71.4% settlement win rate - the highest across any platform or cohort. gemini-3.1-pro-preview (Cohort 2), which executed zero trades on Kalshi, achieved +6.02% on Polymarket in 3 days - the best return of any model across either cohort - demonstrating that platform design has a profound effect on which models succeed. Beyond performance, we analyze computational efficiency (token usage, cycle time), settlement accuracy, exit patterns, and market preferences, providing a comprehensive view of how frontier models behave under real financial pressure.
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.07355
  10. By: Wagner, Joachim (Leuphana University Lüneburg)
    Abstract: In a paper published in the Journal of Information Economics in 2024 I reported evidence that firms which use cloud computing do more often export, do more often export to various destinations all over the world, and do export to more different destinations. Results are based on data for manufacturing firms from the 27 member countries of the European Union taken from the Flash Eurobarometer 486 survey conducted in 2020. This note uses strictly comparable data from the Flash Eurobarometer 559 conducted in 2025 and the identical empirical strategy to document that the big picture found for 2020 did not change over the last five years. Extensive margins of exports and the use of cloud computing are still positively related.
    Keywords: cloud computing, exports, firm level data, Flash Eurobarometer 559, kernel-regularized least squares (KRLS)
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18498
  11. By: Toshiyuki Uemura (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)
    Abstract: This study theoretically and empirically examines competition among local governments in Japan's hometown tax donation system (Furusato Nozei) using a Hotelling-type model. This study makes four main contributions. First, it develops a simplified Hotelling-type model that incorporates household attachment to local governments in an economic space with donor households and multiple local governments, thereby capturing strategic competition over donation prices. Second, it analyzes the strategic behavior of local governments under the hometown tax donation system within the frameworks of Bertrand and Stackelberg competition. Third, it identifies the effects of policy parameters on equilibrium donation shares through comparative static analysis and verifies these results using numerical simulations. Fourth, using prefecture-level data, it conducts an empirical analysis based on a two-stage least squares (2SLS) method to address potential endogeneity of donation prices, confirming that the theoretical sign conditions of the donation share function are supported by the data. The results indicate that higher marginal costs reduce donation shares, while stronger brand strength of reciprocal gifts and greater household attachment increase donation shares, yielding important policy implications for the design of the hometown tax donation system.
    Keywords: hometown tax donation system, Hotelling-type model, donation prices, household attachment
    JEL: H71 H72 H77
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:308
  12. By: Wu Chenxi (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, UTM Johor Bahru, 81310, Johor Bahru, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Thoo Ai Chin Author-2-Workplace-Name: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, UTM Johor Bahru, 81310, Johor Bahru, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Dai Yuhui Author-3-Workplace-Name: School of Business Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Dongfang College, No. 2 Yangshan Road, Changan Town, Haining City, Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, China Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: " Objective - The digital transformation of enterprises is an important tool for building a Digital China and developing New Productivity, while supply chain finance brings profound innovation to financial services. Existing research lacks an in-depth exploration of the relationship between Supply Chain Finance and Digital Transformation. Methodology/Technique – Based on theoretical analyses, this paper explores the impact of SCF on enterprise's DT and its internal mechanism using the data of A-share non-financial enterprises in China from 2010 to 2022. Findings – SCF significantly improves enterprises' DT levels, and this conclusion holds for major event shocks. Mechanism analysis shows that this effect is primarily achieved through resource allocation and risk smoothing. Novelty – This paper expands the research boundary at the micro level and provides new evidence and ideas to help SCF better serve the real economy and accelerate enterprise DT. Type of Paper - Empirical"
    Keywords: Supply chain finance, Digital transformation, Earnings enhancement effect, Cost improvement effect, Risk smoothing effect.
    JEL: G53 D14
    Date: 2026–03–31
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr233
  13. By: Alexander Dickerson; Philippe Mueller; Cesare Robotti
    Abstract: Recent studies document strong empirical support for multifactor models that aim to explain the cross-sectional variation in corporate bond expected excess returns. We revisit these findings and provide evidence that common factor pricing in corporate bonds is exceedingly difficult to establish. Based on portfolio- and bond-level analyses, we demonstrate that previously proposed bond risk factors, with traded liquidity as the only marginal exception, do not have any incremental explanatory power over the corporate bond market factor. Consequently, this implies that the bond CAPM is not dominated by either traded- or nontraded-factor models in pairwise and multiple model comparison tests.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.05699
  14. By: Paul Simshauser; ;
    Keywords: Strategic reserve, energy-only markets, resource adequacy
    JEL: D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2605
  15. By: Michelle W. Bowman
    Date: 2026–03–31
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:103011
  16. By: Alma Cohen; Alon Klement; Zvika Neeman; Eilon Solan
    Abstract: In many institutional settings, k items are selected with the goal of representing the underlying distribution of claims, opinions, or characteristics in a large population. We study environments with two adversarial parties whose preferences over the selected items are commonly known and opposed. We propose the Quantile Mechanism: one party partitions the population into k disjoint subsets, and the other selects one item from each subset. We show that this procedure is optimally representative among all feasible mechanisms, and illustrate its use in jury selection, multi-district litigation, and committee formation.
    JEL: C7 D7 D82 K4
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35031
  17. By: Takashi Kamihigashi (Center for Computational Social Science (CCSS) and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Corrado Di Guilimi (Economic Discipline Group, University of Technology Sydney, AUSTRALIA, Department of Economics and ManagementUniversity of Florence, ITALY, Center for Computational Social Science, Kobe University, JAPAN and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University, AUSTRALIA)
    Abstract: The paper introduces forward-looking intertemporal optimization in an agent-based model. Optimization is implemented considering, on the one hand that revision of economic behavior do not occur continuosly over time but only when circumstances suggest or impose it, and, on the other hand, that, given the inherent uncertainty and complexity of the economic system, the planning horizon is finite. We propose a macroeco nomic model with a large population of household agents. Each period a random sample of them will reset their propensities to consume and invest by maximizing their intertemporal utility. The study is a primer in considering the joint effect of heterogeneous agents’ interaction and forward-looking behavior, and provides novel insights into the mechanism of transmission of individual choices to the macroeconomy. The heavy computational tasks are managed through the development of new programming tools. The oexistence of interaction and forward looking be havior generates interesting coordination dynamics. The results suggest that even a tiny fraction of optimizing agents over the whole population has a significant effect of aggregate output, but this effect is nonlinear and conditional on the length of the panning horizon.
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-13
  18. By: DENG, Yongheng; INOUE, Tomoo; NISHIMURA, Kiyohiko; SHIMIZU, Chihiro
    Abstract: In population bonus periods, optimism about future housing demand fuels rapid construction and self-reinforcing price appreciation. In population onus periods, pessimism-amplified by the systematic failure of governments to revise demographic projections downward in a timely manner-drives structural oversupply, rising vacancy rates, and prolonged price stagnation. We formalise this mechanism through a present-value model in which the demographic regime asymmetrically shifts expected rent growth and the discount rate, and test it using annual panel data for 16 advanced economies over 1975- 2019. Pooled mean-group estimation shows that a rising old-age share significantly depresses long-run real house prices; the unanticipated ageing component (-8.826) substantially exceeds the government-projected component (-5.005). A rising youth share raises prices. Demographic structure further conditions monetary policy transmission: interest-rate cuts stimulate housing markets far more strongly in young than in ageing economies.
    Keywords: demographic optimism, demographic pessimism, population bonus and onus, housing vacancy and oversupply, demographic forecast errors
    JEL: E31 J11 R21 R31
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp26-2
  19. By: Osborne Jackson
    Abstract: Proficiency in a country’s primary language is a skill that can be expected to improve labor market outcomes. Considering the United States specifically, individuals with strong English-language skills presumably could fare better in US labor markets compared with individuals who are less proficient in the language. These benefits potentially are most relevant for immigrants since their English proficiency may be lower on average than it is for natives. Given the importance of immigration to the economy of New England, where it plays a central role in population growth and where foreign-born persons comprise one-fifth of the labor force, the impact of increased English proficiency on labor market outcomes may be particularly relevant for the region.
    Keywords: New England; English proficiency; labor market outcomes; language skills; earnings; immigration
    JEL: J24 J30 J64 R23
    Date: 2026–04–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcr:103017
  20. By: Cerruti, Stefania
    Abstract: In 2025, the UK Government published a review of HM Treasury’s ‘Green Book’, the policy appraisal handbook used by UK public organisations in appraising, evaluating and making decisions about spending proposals to ensure value-for-money (HM Treasury, 2025a). That review highlighted several issues that required further investigation and to be addressed in the new version of the Green Book. One of these was the use of the discount rate, which needed to be reconsidered "...to make sure that the government is taking a fair view of the long-term benefits that arise from transformational investments" (ibid.). The Treasury appointed Professors Mark Freeman and Ben Groom to carry out a further review and present recommendations to the Government on the use of discount rates (HM Treasury, 2025b). Part of this review involved surveying the academic community on their views on different aspects of discount rates. CETEx submitted a response on 26 February 2026, which is presented below.
    JEL: E6 J1
    Date: 2026–03–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137852
  21. By: Mustafeed Zaman (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School)
    Abstract: Airbnb n'a même pas vingt ans. Et pourtant, le site est devenu un acteur majeur dutourisme. Sa création n'a pas seulement conduit à un transfert des hébergements, il acontribué à des changements profonds du secteur, répondant à de nouveaux besoins, mais créant aussi de nouveaux problèmes. Panorama des mutations induites par uneentreprise née en 2007 du côté de San Francisco.
    Keywords: Tourisme, Economie numérique, Economie du partage, Airbnb, Voyage, Série d'été, Surtourisme, Economie
    Date: 2026–08–26
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05551713
  22. By: Hector Galindo-Silva
    Abstract: The European colonization of sub-Saharan Africa drove a massive shift from indigenous religions to Christianity, yet the channels through which this transformation occurred remain poorly understood. Using a geographic regression discontinuity design at colonial borders in sub-Saharan Africa, I find that Christian adherence is substantially higher under French and Portuguese direct rule than under British indirect rule -- a gap that implies a correspondingly greater persistence of traditional religions where indirect rule prevailed. Neither mission presence nor pre-colonial political centralization can account for the discontinuity. Instead, the evidence points to the disruption of the inherited social order as the key channel: where direct rule eroded rigid traditional social structures, Christianity -- which bypassed hereditary boundaries -- expanded to fill the void; where indirect rule preserved them, indigenous religions endured. These findings shed light on the dynamics of religious identity change and how it was shaped by colonialism.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.04777
  23. By: Luck, Nathalie (University of Passau and TU Munich); Grimm, Michael (University of Passau); Tamtomo, Kristian (Universitas Atma Jaya Yogyakarta)
    Abstract: Most impact assessments of agricultural training evaluate one-time interventions over short time horizons. However, farmers may initially show enthusiasm for a new technology but subsequently dis-adopt it after a trial period, while others may adopt practices gradually over time. This study investigates the causal impact of repeated agricultural training on the adoption of organic farming practices among Indonesian smallholder farmers. Using a randomized controlled trial and four waves of panel data spanning five years, we analyze adoption dynamics over time. Farmers in the treatment group received training twice, once in 2018 and again in 2022. Our findings show that repeated training significantly increased the adoption of organic farming practices, but no evidence that training motivated farmers to fully transition to organic farming. Adoption patterns reveal substantial dis-adoption, re-adoption, and late adoption following repeated training. The results contribute to understanding longer-term adoption dynamics after extension programs and provide insights into the challenges faced by smallholder farmers transitioning to sustainable agricultural practices.
    Keywords: organic farming, training, skills, technology adoption, information constraints, extension services, Indonesia
    JEL: C93 J24 J43 O12 O13 Q12 Q15 Q16
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18479
  24. By: El-Haddad, Amirah (German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)); Krafft, Caroline (University of Minnesota); Selwaness, Irene (Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University); Assaad, Ragui (University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants and dynamics of labour demand and specifically informal labour in Egypt’s manufacturing sector, using nationally representative firm-level data. We analyse the determinants of total employment, the share of informal labour, and its average annual change over the firm life cycle. Three key findings emerge. First, employment is positively associated with capital, exporting, innovation, industrial zones, worker training, and managerial education, and negatively associated with sole proprietorships, wages, and total factor productivity. Second, informal employment is more common among private sector firms, sole proprietorships, and firms using more part-time workers, and less prevalent among firms adopting technology or led by more educated managers. Third, although most formal firms exhibit no change in the share of informal workers, formal firms that did not initially employ informal labour tend to increase their informal share, while firms that formalised continue to rely heavily on informal employment. Together, these findings underscore the persistence of informality and limited transitions toward full formalisation within Egypt’s formal manufacturing sector.
    Keywords: Manufacturing, labour demand, informality, Egypt
    JEL: J23 L6 L11 O17
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18500
  25. By: Martyna Kobus; Radoslaw Kurek; Thomas Parker
    Keywords: Loss aversion; inequality aversion; stochastic dominance; bootstrap inference
    JEL: D04 C14
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxu:wpaper:59
  26. By: Bekhtiar, Karim (IHS, Vienna, Austria); Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf (Johannes Kepler University Linz)
    Abstract: Providing recently laid off workers with cash benefits may help them overcome mobility costs and thereby stimulate labor mobility. On the other hand, cash benefits may dampen the employment shock and reduce the incentive to move. In this paper, we test these two competing mechanisms against each other. For this we use a severance pay regulation in Austria, which generated a sharp cutoff after which workers became eligible to a severance payment of two monthly salaries. Our results indicate that this cash payment increased labor mobility by around 8% to 12%. This increase is much stronger for worker groups with lower baseline mobility rates.
    Keywords: unemployment, labor mobility, internal migration, commuting
    JEL: J18 J61 J65 R23
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18509
  27. By: David Moroz (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School)
    Abstract: Les Lego ne sont pas uniquement des jouets : ils sont devenus de véritables objets decollection, portés par un marché de seconde main particulièrement dynamique. Qu'est-ce que la marque Lego nous enseigne sur les marchés de collection et sur toutes ses homologues qui cherchent à susciter chez leurs clients le désir de collectionner ?
    Keywords: Vente d'occasion, Plateforme numérique, « Entreprise(s) », Collection, Clients, Produits, Marchés, Jouets, Art, Recyclage, Entreprises numériques
    Date: 2025–07–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05551658
  28. By: Laszlo Goerke (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University); Sven A. Hartmann (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University); Yue Huang (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University)
    Abstract: Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we provide a comprehensive investigation of the relationship between workplace co-determination in the form of works councils and income satisfaction. Controlling for a wide range of individual, job-related, and firm-level characteristics in OLS and fixed effects specifications, we observe that employees working in establishments with a works council report significantly higher income satisfaction compared to their counterparts in non-co- determined firms. The rank in the income distribution, the perceived fairness of the wage, and working conditions emerge as quantitatively relevant factors in explaining the positive correlation.
    Keywords: Co-determination; income satisfaction; SOEP
    JEL: I31 J28 J50
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iaa:dpaper:202602

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