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on Investment |
| By: | Markus Nagler; Erwin Winkler |
| Abstract: | A large literature investigates the employment effects of minimum wages, with comparatively little evidence on other adjustment margins. In this paper, we analyze the impact of a nationwide introduction of minimum wages in Germany on employer-induced work pressure, using detailed worker-level survey data. Applying a difference-in-differences approach, we show that the introduction of minimum wages increased work pressure in occupations more exposed to the minimum wage. The increase in work pressure cannot be explained by compositional changes in terms of demographics, job complexity, or hours worked. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, work pressure, non-wage amenities, working conditions, compensating differentials |
| JEL: | J28 J31 J32 J33 J81 H80 I31 I38 K31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12460 |
| By: | Zigova, Katarina; Zwick, Thomas |
| Abstract: | We find a substantial and long-lasting positive effect of the introduction of regional minimum wages on training incidence and intensity. We apply a stacked difference-in-differences estimation to identify the dynamic effect of high minimum wages introduced in several Swiss cantons between 2018 and 2022. Employers invest more in formal training for retained employees during working hours, covering content beyond their main economic activity. We conclude that employers increase the productivity of their employees to retain the underlying rents. We carefully rule out confounding factors and offer an explanation for the difference between our and some earlier findings. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, continuing training, staggered policy introduction |
| JEL: | J08 J51 M53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:336769 |
| By: | Trebesch, Christoph; Nishikawa, Taro |
| Abstract: | · This brief provides a big-picture overview of support for Ukraine after four years of war. The key finding from 2025 is that Europe has almost offset the collapse in US support. · US aid fell by 99 percent. At the same time, Europe sharply increased its aid allocations, by 59 percent for financial and humanitarian aid and by 67 percent for military aid compared to the 2022-24 average. As a result, total aid in 2025 remained close to previous years. · Within Europe, financial and humanitarian aid is now dominated by EU institutions, as EU loans and grants account for 89 percent of these flows in 2025. Military aid is ever more concentrated on a few countries. Northern and Western Europe accounted for about 95 percent, in particular Scandinavia, Germany, the United Kingdom. In contrast, the military aid from Southern and Eastern Europe continued to fall. · To help replace US support, NATO launched the PURL initiative, through which donors purchased US weapons for Ukraine worth EUR 3.7 billion in 2025, including HIMARS and Patriot systems. Donors also increasingly procured weapons directly from Ukraine's defense industry. The share of procurement in Ukraine reached 22 percent in late 2025. |
| Abstract: | · Diese Kurzanalyse liefert einen Überblick zur Ukraine-Hilfe nach vier Jahren Krieg. Eine zentrale Erkenntnis ist, dass Europa das Einfrieren der US-Hilfen fast ausgeglichen hat. · Die US-Unterstützung brach 2025 um 99 Prozent ein. Gleichzeitig erhöhte Europa seine Hilfszuweisungen deutlich, um 59 Prozent bei finanzieller und humanitärer Hilfe und um 67 Prozent bei militärischer Unterstützung. Das Gesamtvolumen der Hilfe blieb 2025 damit nahe am Niveau der Vorjahre. · Die finanzielle und humanitäre Hilfe aus Europa wird inzwischen überwiegend über EU-Institutionen geleistet. 90 Prozent der Finanzhilfe für die Ukraine kamen 2025 über EU-Kredite und Zuschüsse. Die militärische Hilfe ist dagegen immer stärker konzentriert. Nord- und Westeuropa trugen etwa 95 Prozent bei, insbesondere aus Skandinavien, Deutschland und dem Vereinigten Königreich. Die Zuweisungen aus Süd- und Osteuropa sanken weiter. · Zur Kompensation der US-Waffenhilfe startete die NATO die PURL-Initiative, über die 2025 US-Waffen im Wert von 3, 7 Mrd. Euro für die Ukraine gekauft wurden, z.B. HIMARS- und Patriot-Systeme. Zugleich gewann die Beschaffung der Geberländer über die ukrainische Verteidigungsindustrie an Bedeutung. Der Anteil wuchs bis Ende 2025 auf 22 Prozent. |
| Keywords: | International Aid, Defense Industry, Geoeconomics, Ukraine, Internationale Hilfe, Verteidigungsindustrie, Geoökonomie, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:336813 |
| By: | Rüdiger Bachmann; Benjamin Born; Olga Goldfayn-Frank; Georgi Kocharkov; Ralph Luetticke; Michael Weber |
| Abstract: | We exploit Germany’s temporary three-percentage-point VAT cut in the second half of 2020 to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on household consumption expenditures and their perceived pass-through of the tax change into prices, and a HANK model to quantify the effects of this VAT policy. The survey and scanner data show that the temporary VAT reduction led to a relative increase in durable and, to a lesser extent, semi-durable spending for individuals with high perceived pass-through. According to the HANK model, the VAT policy increased total aggregate consumption spending by 4.4 percent on impact. |
| Keywords: | unconventional fiscal policy, value added tax, household survey data, expectations, consumption, durables, HANK model |
| JEL: | D12 E20 E21 E62 E65 H31 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_728 |
| By: | Mohamad Ikhsan; Hadyan Prabowo; Ibrahim Naufal (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia’s agrifood system (AFS) has undergone a profound transformation over the past two decades, shaped by structural shifts in production, consumption, and policy. This paper analyzes the evolving structure and growth dynamics of Indonesia’s AFS using Input–Output data and comparative evidence from Bangladesh, Nigeria, and India. Three findings stand out. First, while rice remains politically central, its economic role has stagnated, leaving Indonesia caught in a “rice trap†of high prices, smallholder inefficiency, and heavy fiscal subsidies. Second, emerging drivers of dynamism—plantation crops, livestock, and dairy—demonstrate the growing importance of diversification, private sector investment, and off-farm value chains. Third, the Covid-19 shock revealed both resilience (in maize, roots, palm oil, and processed foods) and vulnerabilities (in rice, livestock, and imports of soybeans and dairy). The analysis shows that Indonesia’s future food security and rural prosperity depend on breaking free from the rice trap, rebalancing subsidies toward high-value crops and off-farm employment, and investing in infrastructure, cold chains, and institutional coordination. The paper concludes by outlining a research agenda for constructing an Indonesia-specific Agrifood System Social Accounting Matrix (AFS-SAM) better to quantify linkages, employment multipliers, and policy trade-offs. |
| Keywords: | Agrifood system — rice trap — food security — diversification — resilience — Indonesia — Input–Output analysis — agricultural policy — value chains |
| JEL: | O13 O53 Q12 Q13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202588 |
| By: | Daniel Chee; Noufel Frikha; Libo Li |
| Abstract: | Recent advances in continuous-time optimal stopping have been driven by entropy-regularized formulations of randomized stopping problems, with most existing approaches relying on partial differential equation methods. In this paper, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on the Doob-Meyer-Mertens decomposition of the Snell envelope and its representation through reflected backward stochastic differential equations. We introduce an entropy-regularized penalization scheme yielding a monotone approximation of the value function and establish explicit convergence rates under suitable regularity assumptions. In addition, we develop a policy improvement algorithm based on linear backward stochastic differential equations and illustrate its performance through a simple numerical experiment for an American-style max call option |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.18062 |
| By: | Aur\'elien Alfonsi; Ahmed Kebaier |
| Abstract: | For a class of stochastic models with Gaussian and rough mean-reverting volatility that embeds the genuine rough Stein-Stein model, we study the weak approximation rate when using a Euler type scheme with integrated kernels. Our first result is a weak convergence rate for the discretised rough Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, that is essentially in $\min(3\alpha-1, 1)$, where $\frac{t^{\alpha-1}}{\Gamma(\alpha)} $ is the fractional convolution kernel with $\alpha \in (1/2, 1)$. Then, our main result is to obtain the same convergence rate for the corresponding stochastic rough volatility model with polynomial test functions. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.18234 |
| By: | Edward Freeland; Andrew Garin; Dmitri K. Koustas |
| Abstract: | We examine how workers perceive the trade-offs of freelancing using a novel survey design that explores the nature of workers' perceptions of their own jobs and the implications of work arrangements for their take-home pay. We find that, across several alternative classifications of freelance work, workers in such arrangements make less per hour than traditional employees, but report having greater control of when, where, and how they work. We find that on average, self-employed workers spend an additional 5 to 8 percentage points of gross pay covering unreimbursed expenses relative to traditional employees. However, when asked about expectations of net pay in freelance and traditional employment jobs with the same gross pay, respondents who received no quantitative information expected net pay to be higher in freelance arrangements than in employment arrangements, on average. This pattern reversed among respondents who were randomly assigned to receive customized estimates of their expected total expense and tax burdens in each arrangement, who estimated that freelance arrangements would generate lower net lower earnings than employment arrangements (consistent with the estimates we provided to them). This suggests that workers may not be fully aware of the tax and expense burdens freelance workers are responsible for. Interestingly, we find similar results both for workers who are currently employees in their main job and those who are currently self-employed, suggesting that the low salience of the tax and expense burdens associated with freelance work are not merely driven by those with no self-employment experience. |
| JEL: | H22 J33 J46 J48 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34843 |
| By: | Zhihao Gavin Tang; Yixin Tao; Shixin Wang |
| Abstract: | We study prior-independent pricing for selling a single item to a single buyer when the seller observes only a single sample from the valuation distribution, while the buyer knows the distribution. Classical robust pricing approaches either rely on distributional statistics, which typically require many samples to estimate, or directly use revealed samples to determine prices and allocations. We show that these two regimes can be bridged by leveraging the buyer's informational advantage: pricing policies that conventionally require the seller to know statistics such as the mean, $L^\eta$-norm, or superquantile can, in our framework, be implemented using only a single hidden sample. We introduce hidden pricing mechanisms, in which the seller commits ex ante to a pricing rule based on a single sample that is revealed only after the buyer's participation decision. We show that every concave pricing policy can be implemented in this way. To evaluate performance guarantees, we develop a general reduction for analyzing monotone pricing policies over $\alpha$-regular distributions, enabling a tractable characterization of worst-case instances. Using this reduction, we characterize the optimal monotone hidden pricing mechanisms and compute their approximation ratios; in particular, we obtain an approximation ratio of approximately $0.79$ for monotone hazard rate (MHR) distributions. We further establish impossibility results for general concave pricing policies and for all prior-independent mechanisms. Finally, we show that our framework also applies to statistic-based robust pricing, thereby unifying sample-based and statistic-based approaches. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.18038 |
| By: | Zeng, Roger Weigang |
| Abstract: | This thesis reconceptualizes American metropolitan areas as dissipative thermodynamic structures governed by non-equilibrium dynamics. Drawing on process philosophy, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and information geometry, I analyze 386 MSAs using publicly US Census data from 2006–2024 (2020 excluded due to data disruption). I found that among 102 major US MSAs, 9 (8.5%) meet all criteria for confirmed dissipative structures, with 46.2% operating in the dissipative regime; 340 MSAs (88%) exhibit predominantly geodesic demographic trajectories with a mean geodesic efficiency η of 72.6%. Furthermore, only one manifold tearing event was found to have occurred (2008 Financial Crisis), creating societal transformative changes; But 95.6% of MSAs showed adiabatic (resilient) responses to the 2008 crisis and 91.3% to COVID-19, with zero non-adiabatic classifications. Validation confirms non-equilibrium dynamics (p=0.023). The findings challenge equilibrium-based urban planning, suggesting policy should focus on managing flows and enabling adaptive capacity rather than optimizing fixed forms. A surprising result was the universal adiabatic response of all major MSAs surveyed, suggest great resilience in medium to large American cities while refuting the “urban doom” thesis following the COVID-19 pandemic. All source codes are available at: http://github.com/rogerwzeng/dissipative-urbanism Keywords: dissipative structures, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, information geometry, urban complexity, process philosophy, metropolitan dynamics, demographic flows |
| Date: | 2026–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:thesis:d7az9_v1 |
| By: | Koenig, Carsten |
| Abstract: | Legislators and regulators around the globe are increasingly seeking to hold multinational companies accountable for human rights and environmental abuses in their supply chains, even when the harm is primarily caused by a subsidiary or business partner. This paper examines such supply chain liability from an economic perspective. It argues that it can be justified when suppliers cannot be expected to respond sufficiently to due diligence incentives, e.g. due to wealth restrictions, information asymmetries or enforcement deficits. However, this requires that the entity to which liability is extended does not suffer from the same problems and that it is able to control the behavior of the entity that is primarily responsible for causing the harm. This is often the case with subsidiaries, but more difficult with independent business partners. Thus, this paper suggests that liability for harm by subsidiaries should be strict, while liability for independent business partners should be based on negligence, i.e. the breach of a duty of supervision or control. However, policymakers should be cautious not to incentivize an inefficient multiplication of due diligence measures without significant benefits in terms of harm prevention. In principle, liability should be extended to other entities only where it can be reasonably assumed that the primarily responsible entity is not responding appropriately to due diligence incentives. In addition, liability should be designed in such a way that it does not invite circumvention, or at least makes it as difficult as possible. Finally, policymakers should seek to ensure that supply chain liability does not have undesirable effects on the global division of labor, which could result in inefficiencies. |
| Keywords: | supply chain liability, due diligence, human rights, environmental liability, vicariousliability, subsidiaries, parent companies, independent contractors, corporate groups |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:336741 |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Difa Fitriani; Mervin Goklas Hamonangan; Hardy Salim; Alif Ihsan A Fahta (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia is entering the final quarter of 2025 with rising inflation, renewed external pressures, and growing investor caution. Headline inflation climbed in October as food prices remained elevated due to weather related supply disruptions and robust gold prices continued to push up core components. At the same time, capital outflows intensified despite the Fed’s rate cuts, driven by escalating concerns over fiscal and quasi fiscal risks, particularly following recent policy shifts involving the government’s plan to take over the Whoosh high speed rail debt. These developments weakened Rupiah and heightened the importance of policy credibility. In this environment, maintaining the policy rate at 4.75% in the upcoming Board of Governors meeting would best support Rupiah stability and strengthen confidence in Bank Indonesia's policy stance. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202511 |
| By: | Sattar, Sarmad; Alvi, Aramish Altaf; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of foreign direct investment inflows by categorising them into three overarching dimensions, which are economic, social, and institutional. Recognising the heterogeneity of global economies, the analysis differentiates between developed and developing countries according to income classifications. Based on panel data for 178 countries covering the period from 1996 to 2019. The empirical results reveal notable differences in the drivers of foreign direct investment across income groups. In developing countries, economic factors such as market size, trade openness, and macroeconomic stability emerge as the most influential determinants. This explains that investors in less mature markets place the greatest importance on strong economic fundamentals. In contrast, in developed economies, social factors, including infrastructure quality, education levels, and human capital development, play a more prominent role in attracting foreign direct investment. This reflects investors’ greater responsiveness to social infrastructure and workforce capabilities in advanced markets. Institutional factors such as governance quality, regulatory frameworks, and political stability show a weak and statistically insignificant relationship with foreign direct investment inflows in both developed and developing countries. This finding challenges the prevailing view that strong institutions are a prerequisite for attracting foreign investment and indicates that their influence may be context-dependent or overshadowed by more immediate economic and social considerations. Overall, the study provides a nuanced understanding of the heterogeneous nature of foreign direct investment determinants and highlights the need for policy strategies that are tailored to the specific developmental stage and structural characteristics of each country. These insights can help policymakers align economic and social development priorities more effectively with the objective of enhancing foreign direct investment attractiveness. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Determinants, Social Infrastructure, Institutional Quality |
| JEL: | F21 O1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127562 |
| By: | Kimihiko Mizutani (Nihon University); |
| Abstract: | When families operate businesses, a common objective is to foster the growth of the family business and, consequently, ensure the enduring prosperity of the family itself. Given that the family frequently constitutes a primary stakeholder in a family business, family governance undeniably exerts a significant influence on the corporate governance of the enterprise. Furthermore, as generational transitions unfold within the family, the dynamics among family members shift, altering the relationship between the family and the family business, which in turn impacts governance structures. This paper posits that family governance, alongside corporate governance, becomes crucial for the family to remain a positive influence as a stakeholder in the family business. To this end, it organizes and examines key considerations for conceptualizing family governance, including the illustrative presentation of principles and guidelines that can be referenced for effective implementation of such governance. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:jseres:cj128 |
| By: | Chung, Vincent |
| Abstract: | Given the Amazon Rainforest’s ecological importance, accurately valuing its conservation benefits is critical for informed policy decisions. This study compares the efficacy of using immersive virtual reality (VR) and high-quality video presentations to elicit ‘willingness to pay’ (WTP) for conservation activities in the Amazon Rainforest. It examines whether VR elicits valuations of conservation benefits that are sensitive to the scope or scale of conservation (‘scope-sensitive valuations’), and whether any benefits justify its higher cost. It also explores variations within responses to VR to identify experiential factors, such as feeling present in the environment or feeling physically uncomfortable, that moderate scope sensitivity. The study finds that high-quality video presentations generate scope-sensitive willingness to pay (WTP) for Amazon Rainforest conservation as effectively as immersive VR, while offering greater accessibility and lower cost than VR. |
| Keywords: | virtual reality; stated preference; contingent valuation; scope sensitivity |
| JEL: | Q51 Q57 C91 |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137101 |
| By: | Anna Barbeta-Margarit; Seema Jayachandran; Suanna Oh |
| Abstract: | Can questions about life satisfaction be used to measure parental preferences for daughters versus sons? Daughter preference has rarely been documented in the literature, even in matrilineal settings. One possible reason is that the commonly used measures of parental gender preference, such as fertility-stopping rules and sex ratio at birth, are ill-suited to high-fertility settings. We instead assess maternal preferences in Malawi by examining the life satisfaction of women who currently have one child, comparing those with a daughter to those with a son. We find that in matrilineal (but not patrilineal) households, having a daughter increases mothers' life satisfaction, relative to having a son. |
| Keywords: | daughter preference, life satisfaction, matrilineality |
| JEL: | I31 J13 J16 N47 O12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12463 |
| By: | Cecilia Carvalho; Nicolas Goulart; Daniel Monte; Emanuel Ornelas |
| Abstract: | We study the sustainability of international trading rules in a multipolar world. A rules-based equilibrium is shaped by three forces. A static temptation to exploit market power undermines cooperation, while two dynamic forces support it: the efficiency gains from rules and the cost of re-establishing the regime once a country becomes hegemonic. When multipolarity is short-lived and involves few co-leaders, a strong enough prospect of future hegemony ensures rules cooperation. However, in a more fragmented world, the sustainability of rules is more likely if shared leadership is expected to persist, to ensure long-lasting efficiency gains. |
| Keywords: | hegemonic stability theory, World Trade Organization, trade agreements, multipolarity |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2152 |
| By: | Abi Jaber, Eduardo (Ecole Polytechnique); Hainaut, Donatien (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium); Motte, Edouard (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | We introduce the Volterra Stein-Stein model with stochastic interest rates, where both volatility and interest rates are driven by correlated Gaussian Volterra processes. This framework unifies various well-known Markovian and non-Markovian models while preserving analytical tractability for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. We derive explicit formulas for pricing zero-coupon bond and interest rate cap or floor, along with a semi-explicit expression for the characteristic function of the log-forward index using Fredholm resolvents and determinants. This allows for fast and efficient derivative pricing and calibration via Fourier methods. We calibrate our model to market data and observe that our framework is flexible enough to capture key empirical features, such as the humped-shaped term structure of ATM implied volatilities for cap options and the concave ATM implied volatility skew term structure (in log-log scale) of the S&P 500 options. Finally, we establish connections between our characteristic function formula and expressions that depend on infinite-dimensional Riccati equations, thereby making the link with conventional linear-quadratic models. |
| Keywords: | Gaussian Volterra processes ; volatility ; interest rate ; memory ; Fredholm resolvents and determinants ; Fourier pricing ; Riccati equations |
| Date: | 2025–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiz:louvad:2025003 |