|
on Investment |
| By: | Agyemang-Duah, Esther; Delbridge, Tim |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of Oregon’s tiered minimum wage policy on working hours in the food manufacturing sector by comparing two regions that face different minimum wages under Oregon law: the Portland Metro Area and the “Standard Counties” outside of the metro area. The food manufacturing sector is a vital component of Oregon’s economy, significantly contributing to job creation and exports, and is not immune to wage policy changes given its concentration of low-wage workers. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design and a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find no evidence that the introduction of the policy had a significant negative effect on working hours. We find, in our spatial regression discontinuity design, that there is no detectable local effect at the boundary and that the minimum wage policy did not change the discontinuity at the boundary. Additionally, we do not find a significant average treatment effect in the difference-in-differences (DiD) specification. These findings suggest that the negative effects often predicted with minimum wage increases are either not present in this case, or small enough as to be undetectable with the available data on food processing employment. Our results contribute to the broader discussion on how labor markets in low-wage sectors respond to changes in minimum wage policies. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360611 |
| By: | Zaira García-Tórtola (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); David Conesa (Department of Statistics and Operational Research, Universidad de Valencia, Spain); Joan Crespo (Department of Economic Structure, Universidad de Valencia, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | University rankings predominantly focus on outputs while neglecting the efficiency with which institutions convert resources into outcomes. We contribute to addressing this limitation by analyzing the determinants of university efficiency using a Bayesian stochastic ray frontier model applied to 47 Spanish public universities over the 2016–2021 period. Unlike traditional approaches, our methodology jointly estimates efficiency and its determinants in a single stage. We adopt a multi-output framework encompassing the three university missions: teaching, research, and knowledge transfer. Using backward stepwise selection with the deviance information criterion, we identify key efficiency determinants including the average department size, number of campuses, academic staff characteristics, and multi-province location. Results reveal substantial efficiency variations across universities, with approximately half showing positive efficiency changes over the period. The Bayesian approach provides full efficiency distributions rather than point estimates, enabling robust statistical comparisons. Our findings offer valuable insights for university managers and policymakers seeking to enhance institutional performance beyond traditional output-based rankings. |
| Keywords: | determinants, efficiency, Bayesian, education, stochastic frontier, universities |
| JEL: | C61 J24 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2026/02 |
| By: | Marek Hudon; Sandrine Meyer |
| Abstract: | La Région de Bruxelles-Capitale fait face à une multitude de défis structurels, parmi lesquels les enjeux économiques occupent une place centrale. Dans ce contexte, la définition d’une vision cohérente du développement économique régional constitue un objet de débat important. La présente étude s’inscrit dans cette réflexion en proposant une analyse empirique des principales représentations et priorités qui structurent les discours sur l’économie bruxelloise.Sur la base de données originales collectées auprès d’acteurs économiques, sociaux et institutionnels de la Région de Bruxelles-Capitale, ce rapport examine la manière dont ces acteurs appréhendent les enjeux actuels et futurs du développement économique régional. A l’aide d’une méthodologie bien établie, la Q-Methodology, nous analysons les convergences et divergences entre les différentes visions exprimées, en mettant en lumière les principales lignes de structuration du débat. L’objectif est d’identifier les logiques sous-jacentes à ces positions et de dégager des éléments susceptibles de nourrir la réflexion collective sur les principaux enjeux.Réalisée dans un contexte institutionnel marqué par la longue période post-électorale ouverte à la suite des élections régionales du 9 juin 2024, cette étude entend apporter une contribution analytique au débat sur l’avenir de l’économie bruxelloise, en documentant les visions qui coexistent au sein du champ régional. |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:ppaper:2013/401091 |
| By: | Sultan, Samina |
| Abstract: | Die engen transatlantischen Handelsbeziehungen geraten durch die Zollpolitik von US-Präsident Trump stark unter Druck. Das spiegelt sich schon in der Exportentwicklung der deutschen Branchen der ersten drei Quartale 2025 wider. Im Durchschnitt über alle Branchen hinweg sind die deutschen Exporte in die USA in diesem Zeitraum um 7, 8 Prozent gesunken, während sie im Mittel des Vergleichszeitraums der Jahre 2016 bis 2024 noch um durchschnittlich fast 5 Prozent gestiegen sind. Besondersstark leiden die deutschen US-Exporte von Kraftwagen und Kraftwagenteilen, Maschinen und auch von chemischen Erzeugnissen, die zusammen für mehr als zwei Fünftel der deutschen US-Exporte stehen. In Summe ziehen allein diese drei Branchen die USAusfuhr Deutschlands um über 5, 2 Prozentpunkte im Vorjahresvergleich nach unten. Das sind mehr als zwei Drittel des Gesamtrückgangs bei den deutschen Exporten in die USA. Die vergleichsweise starke Zollbelastung von Kraftwagen und Kraftwagenteilen bis zur Zolleinigung zwischen der EU und der USA im August 2025 dürfte wesentlich dazu beigetragen haben, dass die deutschen Kfz-Ausfuhren in die USA mit minus 14 Prozent im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum besonders stark zurückgegangen sind. Auch die deutschen Maschinenausfuhren in die USA unterliegen teils einem deutlich höheren Zollsatz von 50 Prozent, der für Stahl und Aluminium sowie Produkte daraus greift. Demgemäß sind die deutschen Maschinenexporte in die USA in den ersten drei Quartalen 2025 um 9, 5 Prozent gesunken. Bei Metallen erklären stärkere Vorzieheffekte im ersten Quartal den Zuwachs an Exporten, während in den nachfolgenden Quartalen auch hier die Ausfuhren zurückgehen. Bei pharmazeutischen und ähnlichen Erzeugnissen spielen Vorzieheffekte und mögliche Umlenkungseffekte ebenso eine Rolle zur Erklärung des Exportwachstums wie auch die Tatsache, dass diese länger als andere Waren von US-Importzöllen verschont blieben (und zum Teil auch jetzt noch von Zöllen ausgenommen sind). In wichtigen Branchen sind die deutschen US-Exporte somit auf das Niveau von 2022 oder gar Anfang 2019 zurückgeworfen. Hätte es aber nach der Coronapandemie nicht einen deutlichen Aufschwung bei den deutschen US-Exporten bis zur Wahl Donald Trumps im Herbst 2024 gegeben, wäre der Einbruch noch deutlich schmerzhafter. Da die US-Importzölle vorerst nicht auf das vorherige Niveau sinken dürften, kann die Entwicklung im dritten Quartal 2025 möglicherweise als eine Annäherung an das "neue Normal" bei den deutschen US-Exporten betrachtet werden. Das trifft das ohnehin unter Druck geratene deutsche Exportmodell hart. Das lässt sich etwa an der Tatsache festmachen, dass die Entwicklung bei den deutschen Ausfuhren in die USA die Entwicklung bei den weltweiten Exporten Deutschlands um 0, 81 Prozentpunkte gedrückt hat, während sie noch im vergangenen Jahr einen positiven Wachstumsbeitrag geleistet haben. Die Entwicklung der deutschen US-Exporte hat bei einigen Branchen einen erheblichen Einfluss auf die weltweiten Branchenexporte Deutschlands. Bei Kraftwagen und Kraftwagenteilen etwa ist die negative Entwicklung bei den deutschen US-Exporten für annähernd die Hälfte des weltweiten Exportrückgangs verantwortlich. Auch bei den deutschen Maschinenausfuhren sind die Einbußen in den USA ein wichtiger Faktor für den gesamten Rückgang von 3, 3 Prozent. In etwas geringerem Maß gilt das auch für chemische Erzeugnisse. |
| Abstract: | The close transatlantic trade relations are coming under significant strain due to U.S. President Trump's tariff policies. This is already reflected in the export performance of German industries during the first three quarters of 2025. On average across all sectors, German exports to the U.S. fell by 7.8 percent during this period, whereas in the comparable timeframe from 2016 to 2024 they had still grown by nearly 5 percent on average. German exports of motor vehicles and parts, machinery, and chemical products - together accounting for more than two-fifths of German exports to the U.S. - are particularly hard hit. Combined, these three sectors alone have dragged Germany's exports to the U.S. down by over 5.2 percentage points compared to the previous year, representing more than two-thirds of the overall decline in German exports to the U.S. The relatively high tariff burden on motor vehicles and parts until the tariff agreement between the EU and the U.S. in August 2025 likely contributed significantly to the sharp drop of 14 percent in German automotive exports to the U.S. compared to the previous year. German machinery exports to the U.S. are partially also subject to a substantially higher tariff rate of 50 percent, which applies to steel, aluminium, and related products. Accordingly, German machinery exports to the U.S. fell by 9.5 percent in the first three quarters of 2025. For metals, stronger front-loading effects in the first quarter explain the initial increase in exports, while subsequent quarters saw declines. For pharmaceutical and similar products, front-loading and possible diversion effects also help explain export growth, as these goods were exempt from U.S. import tariffs for longer than other products (and some remain exempt even now). In key sectors, German exports to the U.S. have thus been pushed back to levels seen in 2022 or even early 2019. Without the significant upswing in German exports to the U.S. following the COVID-19 pandemic until Donald Trump's re-election in fall 2024, the downturn would have been even more painful. Since U.S. import tariffs are unlikely to return to previous levels anytime soon, the development in the third quarter of 2025 may represent an approximation of the "new normal" for German exports to the U.S. This hits the already pressured German export model hard. This can be seen, for example, in the fact that the development of German exports to the US has depressed the development of Germany's global exports by 0.81 percentage points, whereas last year they still made a positive contribution to Germany's global export. The development of German exports to the U.S. has a significant impact on global exports for certain sectors. For motor vehicles and parts, the negative development in exports to the U.S. accounts for nearly half of the global export decline. Losses in the U.S. market are also a key factor behind the overall 3.3 percent drop in German machinery exports worldwide. To a somewhat lesser extent, this also applies to chemical products. |
| Keywords: | Zollpolitik, Amerikanisch, Export, Exportwirtschaft, Kfz-Industrie, Maschinenbau, Chemieindustrie, Deutschland |
| JEL: | F02 F10 F15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:334499 |
| By: | Daniele Giordino (Università Telematica Pegaso); Elisa Ballesio (UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin, GRM - Groupe de Recherche en Management - EA 4711 - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Aradhana Galgotia (Galgotias University); Laura Broccardo (UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the growing attention and concerns surrounding climate change and the potential role of institutional investors' ownership concentration (OC) in reducing corporations' greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this article explores the relationship between various forms of institutional ownership and firms' GHG emission intensity. To do so, the authors employ an extensive dataset of 628 European‐listed corporations with observations from 2015 to 2022. This manuscript method consists of linear regression models. This study's empirical results underline the positive and significant effect financial institutions, pension funds, governments, and foreign institutional investors' OC have on companies' GHG emissions. On the other hand, the regression models present empirical evidence suggesting a negative and significant effect between cross holdings OC and firms' GHG emissions. Finally, the authors identify a negative and non‐significant relationship between "other" institutional investors and organizations' GHG emissions. These findings are robust since the authors have conducted several regression analyses with different approaches and have addressed potential endogeneity bias. The present article makes significant contributions to the scholarly literature and regulatory practice underlying the active role corporate governance and institutional investors have in supporting a carbon‐neutral future. |
| Keywords: | carbon neutrality, environmental performance, greenhouse gas emission, institutional investors, ownership concentration |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05350978 |
| By: | Kausik Chaudhuri; Alan Piper |
| Abstract: | The empirical literature on the relationship between age and well-being is characterised by an unusually persistent series of disagreements over data, method, and interpretation. Previous attempts to advance the discussion have involved different scholars’ specific prescriptions, which were often in near total contradiction to other scholars’ attempts to do the same. Instead, we use specification curve analysis to provide a structured and transparent resolution to these disputes. This also helps to illuminate the sensitivity of findings to key analytical decisions. With twenty-five years of panel data from the UK and Germany, we show that most of the specifications are consistent with a turning point for wellbeing in midlife, with a decline to that point and increase thereafter. The consistency of the finding renders some of the previous debate moot. Furthermore, this robust result is supportive of much theoretical discussion from different disciplines and areas of enquiry. |
| Keywords: | Age, Ageing, lifespan development, wellbeing |
| JEL: | I30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1235 |
| By: | Waldman Joaquin; Trombetta Martin; Souto Lautaro; Verina Tobias Ricardo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of inflation on poverty in a large cross-country panel dataset of 155 countries observed from 1970 to 2024. We estimate two-way fixed effects models that control for economic growth and estimate the sensitivity of the poverty headcount ratio (measured using different poverty lines) to the inflation rate. Our results point to a statistically significant impact of inflation on poverty, but only when relatively high poverty lines are used. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the size of this effect is positively associated with country income level, while a substantial statistically significant effect is also found among low-income countries when lower poverty lines are used. Furthermore, unconditional quantile regressions show that the effect is actually largest in the third quartile of the poverty distribution, which suggests the link is particularly strong for upper-middle income countries. These results contribute to the relevant ongoing debate on the consequences of inflation and suggest a rationale for the political popularity boost usually associated with successful disinflations. |
| JEL: | E31 I32 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4845 |
| By: | Ihlas Sovbetov |
| Abstract: | Decentralized finance (DeFi) lacks centralized oversight, often resulting in heightened volatility. In contrast, centralized finance (CeFi) offers a more stable environment with institutional safeguards. Institutional backing can play a stabilizing role in a hybrid structure (HyFi), enhancing transparency, governance, and market discipline. This study investigates whether HyFi-like cryptocurrencies, those backed by institutions, exhibit lower price risk than fully decentralized counterparts. Using daily data for 18 major cryptocurrencies from January 2020 to November 2024, we estimate panel EGLS models with fixed, random, and dynamic specifications. Results show that HyFi-like assets consistently experience lower price risk, with this effect intensifying during periods of elevated market volatility. The negative interaction between HyFi status and market-wide volatility confirms their stabilizing role. Conversely, greater decentralization is strongly associated with increased volatility, particularly during periods of market stress. Robustness checks using quantile regressions and pre-/post-Terra Luna subsamples reinforce these findings, with stronger effects observed in high-volatility quantiles and post-crisis conditions. These results highlight the importance of institutional architecture in enhancing the resilience of digital asset markets. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.19251 |
| By: | Matěj BAJGAR; Keiko ITO; Jonathan TIMMIS |
| Abstract: | We study how R&D spillovers propagate through buyer–supplier networks. The R&D tax credit for large firms in Japan—originally based on incremental increases in R&D expenditures—was revised in 2003 to cover total R&D expenditures. This reduced the cost of marginal R&D outlays for large firms below the ceiling on R&D expenditure, but not for large firms above the ceiling or for SMEs. In a difference-in-differences setting, we find that the reform increased R&D expenditure, innovative output and sales of the treated firms. We further present evidence of positive forward spillovers to downstream firms: the reform led to productivity increases among firms that had a greater share of suppliers treated by the reform. Conversely, we do not find any evidence of backward spillovers to upstream firms. We also do not find any robust effects of the reform on the R&D expenditure and economic performance of Japanese firms' overseas affiliates. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25127 |
| By: | Srigiri, Srinivasa Reddy; Buliva, Morris |
| Abstract: | Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a critical threat to global health, with environmental transmission pathways - pharmaceutical waste, wastewater effluents, agricultural runoff - increasingly recognised as significant yet inadequately governed. Despite international calls for One Health approaches integrating human, animal and environmental sectors, coordination across these domains remains weak, particularly for environmental dimensions. This paper examines why environmental integration lags in Kenya's AMR governance, despite sophisticated formal architecture that includes national and county coordination platforms (NASIC, CASICs), technical working groups and the One Health AMR Surveillance System (OHAMRS). We investigate two research questions: (i) What are the enablers and barriers to effective governance of interlinkages among human health, animal health and environmental sectors in mitigating AMR? (ii) What are the options for effectively integrating the environmental dimension into AMR governance? Drawing on polycentric governance theory, the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework and the concept of Networks of Adjacent Action Situations (NAAS), we analyse how authority, information and resources shape interactions among overlapping decision centres across constitutional, collective-choice and operational levels. Through 12 semi-structured interviews with government officials, fisheries officers and environmental regulators, supplemented by policy document analysis, we map six action situations spanning planning, resource allocation, surveillance, stewardship, wastewater treatment and regulation. Findings reveal that constitutional-choice rules create formal overlaps intended to foster coordination, yet systematic asymmetries in authority, information and resources perpetuate the marginalisation of environmental issues. Boundary and position rules concentrate agenda setting in health sectors; information rules exclude AMR parameters from environmental permits and inspections; payoff rules reward clinical outputs while environmental investments compete with higher priorities; and scope rules omit environmental accountability targets. These rule configurations attenuate feedback loops between environmental action situations and upstream planning, maintaining system stability but at sub-optimal performance for One Health objectives. We identify rule-focused interventions - mandating environmental representation with voting authority, embedding AMR parameters in regulatory instruments, institutionalising joint inspection protocols, ring-fencing environmental budgets, and establishing explicit environmental targets - that would realign coordination toward genuine environmental integration. |
| Keywords: | One Health, Antimicrobial Resistance, Polycentric Governance, Coordination, Environmental Health, Action situations, Institutions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:334472 |
| By: | Pires, Joe A. |
| Abstract: | The Caribbean Agricultural Trading Company (CATCO) was established in 1982 as a subsidiary of the Caribbean Food Corporation (51%) and the Private Sector (49%). The Company traded initially in intraregional produce and input supplies with disastrous results. Management has been provided under three contracts from 1982 to March 1990. Local personnel are now in direct control of the Company. After attempting to trade in winter vegetables for two seasons the company stressed extra regional trade of non-traditional crops primarily to the ethnic niche markets in the United Kingdom and Continental Europe and to a lesser extent in North America. Efforts will be made to expand the small market base which has been established in North America. Volumes and value of trade have increased by over 60% per year from 1986 except in 1989/1990, when the ravages of Hurricane Hugo and a shortage of working capital prevented the company from reaching its targets. A new injection of funds and cooperative programmes with the Governments of individual member states should provide sufficient finance and produce to increase trading by the historical 60% in the short term. Whilst many problems have been solved and difficulties overcome, the company must still conquer many constraints. It is anticipated that CATCO will cover its cost of operations by 1991/1992. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:carc90:265197 |
| By: | Yolanda de Llanos (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain); Luisa Alamá-Sabater (Department of Economics and IIDL, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Miguel Ángel Márquez (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the concept of left-behind places through the lens of neoendogenous development, with special attention to the role of the social economy in enhancing territorial resilience. Focusing on the Autonomous Community of Extremadura (Spain) as a representative regional case, it investigates the bidirectional relationship between population dynamics and employment using a simultaneous equations model that captures the spatial interdependencies among rural, urban and semi-urban municipalities. The findings highlight that employment growth drives population growth (supporting the idea that people follow jobs) while no evidence is found for the reverse. Local factors such as age structure, foreign population, income per capita and the presence of cooperatives also play a significant role in shaping these dynamics. Notably, the presence of social economy entities has a positive effect on both population and employment growth. The results suggest several policy pathways to mitigate depopulation: promoting employment in urban and intermediate areas, improving rural accessibility, and strengthening the social economy as a key strategy to foster sustainable local development. |
| Keywords: | depopulation, left-behind places, neo-endogenous development, rural, social economy |
| JEL: | C3 O18 O21 R1 R23 R3 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2026/03 |
| By: | Xicay, Anderson E.; Zapata, Samuel D.; Mandadi, Kranthi; Ancona, Veronica |
| Abstract: | Huanglongbing (HLB), also known as citrus greening, is currently recognized as the most devastating disease affecting the global citrus industry. In Florida alone, HLB has caused severe declines in citrus production since it was first detected in 2005. In contrast, timely and targeted interventions in Texas still offer an opportunity to mitigate the long-term impacts of the disease. This study determines the necessary mitigation levels for achieving economically viable control strategies, employing a simulation-based optimization model. The proposed methods supports more efficient allocation of public and private research and development resources. Preliminary results suggest a set of interventions in the progression of disease incidence and severity to outperform current management practices in terms of expected net returns. These findings provide valuable benchmarks for the development and evaluation of future HLB control strategies. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361064 |
| By: | Alberto Bucci (University of Milan); Klaus Prettner (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Jamel Saadaoui (Paris 8 University) |
| Abstract: | How will the widespread deployment of automation technologies such as industrial robots and artificial intelligence (AI) affect long-run economic performance? To address this question, we develop a model of economic growth for a fully automated economy in which output is produced with only two forms of capital: "traditional capital" (assembly lines, machines, etc.) and "robotic capital" (industrial robots, AI, etc.). In our setting, human labor is no longer competitive, and the central questions become how investment should be allocated across the two types of capital and how the degree of substitutability between them affects long-term economic growth. Using a two-level nested CES production structure (with no further assumptions), we characterize the competitive balanced growth path and the range of feasible long-run growth rates that a fully automated economy can attain. We show that the case of full automation can be consistent with the growth expectations of techno-optimists and the dynamics of economic growth along a balanced growth path depend on preference parameters, depreciation, and the degree of substitutability between robotic and traditional capital in both production and investment decisions. Our framework contributes to the debate on the economic consequences of automation and the extent to which this future is shaped by the underlying forces that determine the accumulation of traditional capital versus robotic capital. |
| Keywords: | Automation, Robots, Capital Accumulation, Substitutability of Capital, Balanced Growth |
| JEL: | E22 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp391 |
| By: | Guanyu Lu (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050.); Hajime Katayama (Faculty of Commerce, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, in the Tokyo, 169-8050.); Toshi H. Arimura (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050.); Shohei Morimura (Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050.); Tomoichi Ishiwatari (iGRID SOLUTIONS Inc., 3-7-4 Kojimachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0083.); Tetsu Iwasaki (iGRID SOLUTIONS Inc., 3-7-4 Kojimachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0083.) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of “Enudge, †an artificial intelligence (AI) energy management system (EMS), on electricity consumption in the retail sector. As retail installations increasingly contribute to nonindustrial CO₂ emissions, conventional EMSs frequently fail to manage the complex and variable energy demands in these settings. By leveraging a difference-in-differences framework on store-level data from over 1, 700 retail stores in Japan between November 2018 and December 2023, this study finds that installation of AI EMS-Enudge reduces electricity consumption by an average of 1.9%. However, this reduction effect declines over time, with electricity savings diminishing within five to ten months. This decay effect is consistent with the decrease in user interaction with the recommendations provided by AI, suggesting that user engagement may play a crucial role in reducing electricity consumption. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the system’s performance varies across retail establishments and seasonal contexts. Moreover, a cost-benefit analysis aimed at exploring break-even tariffs and implied abatement costs highlights that the installation of an AI EMS can contribute to cost savings, especially under high tariffs and higher-carbon grids. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence energy management system, electricity consumption, difference in differences, energy savings |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:was:dpaper:2502 |
| By: | Chu, Angus C.; Wang, Xilin |
| Abstract: | This study develops a Malthusian growth model with early state formation and interstate competition. It explores how states' tax capacity and provision of productive public goods shape population dynamics and interstate competition. Each state has an optimal tax rate, increasing in the elasticity of agricultural output with respect to public goods. Without interstate competition, population either converges to a Malthusian trap or grows steadily depending on this elasticity. With interstate competition, states either coexist or only one survives. Population of any surviving state first rises and then falls with its tax rate, capturing the rise and fall of the state. |
| Keywords: | Public goods; interstate competition; Malthusian growth theory |
| JEL: | E60 H20 H56 O43 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126926 |
| By: | Chyong, C. K.; Newbery, D. |
| Abstract: | High Variable Renewable Electricity (VRE) penetration inevitably causes curtailment (shedding), normally measured by average curtailment. Marginal curtailment (mc, the fraction of potential output curtailed by the last MW) can be many times higher, raising the long-run marginal cost of investment, proportional to 1/(1-mc). A unit commitment and efficient dispatch model of Britain divided into seven zones by transmission constraints in 2030 demonstrates that these constraints considerably increase mc compared to no congestion despite the considerable expansion of transmission, interconnectors and storage that mitigate curtailment. Current auction design favours levelised costs ignoring curtailment, but long-run marginal costs may be 90% higher, arguing for careful locational planning. |
| Keywords: | Variable Renewable Electricity, Marginal Curtailment, Average Curtailment, Levelised Cost of Electricity, VRE Support Design |
| JEL: | L94 Q28 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2581 |
| By: | Saadaoui Wiam (Université Hassan 1er [Settat]); Tahour Abdelaziz (Université Hassan 1er [Settat]) |
| Abstract: | Digital transformation has become an essential strategic tool for organizations seeking to enhance their performance, modernize internal processes, and meet the increasing demands of an environment characterized by continuous innovation. It has established itself as a new structural norm, influencing business models, management methods, stakeholder relationships, and overall competitiveness. In Morocco, this dynamic is particularly supported by various national initiatives aimed at promoting the use of digital technologies, facilitating business modernization, and accelerating the transition toward more agile, transparent, and integrated practices. Despite these advancements, the implementation of digital transformation remains a complex process that requires a clear strategic vision, coherent organizational alignment, and a set of methodologies to support companies in their digital priorities and decision-making. Methodological approach:This study adopts a qualitative approach based on an in-depth analysis of the literature. It relies on internationally recognized publications, academic articles, conceptual models, and digital transformation frameworks. The study compares, classifies, and analyzes these works to identify common points, methodological differences, and the conditions required for a |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une analyse exhaustive de l'impact profond de la pandémie de COVID-sur la transformation digitale de la fonction Ressources Humaines (RH). Il soutient que la crise a agi comme un catalyseur sans précédent, accélérant l'adoption des outils numériques et repositionnant fondamentalement la fonction RH en tant que partenaire stratégique central dans le management organisationnel. S'appuyant sur une revue systématique de la littérature académique et une analyse des rapports sectoriels post-, l'étude établit d'abord le contexte prépandémique d'une digitalisation progressive. Elle documente ensuite méticuleusement l'accélération forcée des modèles de travail, de la diffusion des outils numériques et de la réingénierie des processus RH. Le coeur de l'analyse se concentre sur les nouveaux impératifs stratégiques de la fonction RH : naviguer dans les complexités de la gestion des talents à l'ère digitale, encourager le développement continu des compétences via l'e-learning, orchestrer une expérience collaborateur digitale engageante et bâtir la résilience organisationnelle. Les principaux résultats indiquent un changement significatif et probablement permanent du rôle des RH, passant d'un focus administratif à un mandat stratégique, piloté par les données. Cependant, malgré des progrès rapides, des défis persistants liés à la cybersécurité, à la fatigue numérique et aux déficits de compétences demeurent. L'article conclut que l'ère post-COVID exige une fonction RH « augmentée », qui intègre stratégiquement la technologie avec une approche centrée sur l'humain pour stimuler la performance, l'agilité et une croissance durable dans un monde de plus en plus incertain. |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05404891 |
| By: | Elizabeth Irenne Yuwono; Dian Tjondronegoro; Shawn Hunter; Amber Marshall |
| Abstract: | Financial exclusion remains a major barrier to digital public service delivery in resource-constrained and archipelagic nations. Traditional policy evaluations rely on retrospective data, limiting the ex-ante intelligence needed for agile resource allocation. This study introduces a predictive simulation framework to support anticipatory governance within government information systems. Using the UNCDF Pacific Digital Economy dataset of 10, 108 respondents, we apply a three-stage pipeline: descriptive profiling, interpretable machine learning, and scenario simulation to forecast outcomes of digital financial literacy interventions before deployment. Leveraging cross-sectional structural associations, the framework projects intervention scenarios as prioritization heuristics rather than causal estimates. A transparent linear regression model with R-squared of 95.9 identifies modifiable policy levers. Simulations indicate that foundational digital capabilities such as device access and expense tracking yield the highest projected gains, up to 5.5 percent, outperforming attitudinal nudges. The model enables precision targeting, highlighting young female caregivers as high-leverage responders while flagging non-responders such as urban professionals to prevent resource misallocation. This research demonstrates how static survey data can be repurposed into actionable policy intelligence, offering a scalable and evidence-based blueprint for embedding predictive analytics into public-sector decision-support systems to advance equity-focused digital governance. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.12212 |
| By: | Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Krohn, Johanna; Liu, Wan-Hsin; Reents, Jan |
| Abstract: | Die Weltproduktion hat im laufenden Jahr trotz belastender Handelskonflikte und dadurch erhöhter Unsicherheit nur leicht an Tempo verloren. Der Welthandel stieg sogar kräftig. Impulse für Handel und Investitionen gehen weiter vom Boom der KI-Technologie aus. Die Geldpolitik wird in den Vereinigten Staaten voraussichtlich nochmals deutlich gelockert, im Euroraum dürften die Notenbankzinsen vorerst auf ihrem derzeitigen Niveau verbleiben. Gleichzeitig gehen von der Finanzpolitik insgesamt expansive Impulse aus, nicht zuletzt, weil die Rüstungsausgaben in vielen Ländern angesichts der veränderten geopolitischen Konstellation stark ausgeweitet werden. Allerdings dürften die bremsenden Effekte der US-Zollpolitik nun nach und nach deutlicher sichtbar werden, zumal sich abzeichnet, dass die US-Zölle dauerhaft hoch bleiben werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund erwarten wir für die kommenden Monate eine weitere leichte Verlangsamung der weltwirtschaftlichen Expansion. So dürfte sich der Produktionsanstieg in den Vereinigten Staaten und im Euroraum zunächst abschwächen, und die Aussichten für die Konjunktur in China haben sich zuletzt eingetrübt. Alles in allem haben wir unsere Prognose für den Anstieg der Weltproduktion - gemessen auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten - aufgrund der bislang robusten Entwicklung im Vergleich zur Herbstprognose für dieses und nächstes Jahr aber deutlich um jeweils 0, 3 Prozentpunkte auf 3, 3 Prozent bzw. 3, 1 Prozent erhöht. Für 2027 rechnen wir nun mit einer Beschleunigung der weltwirtschaftlichen Expansion auf 3, 2 Prozent. Der Rückgang der Inflation kam im Jahr 2025 zum Stillstand, in den Vereinigten Staaten zogen die Preise aufgrund der Zölle zuletzt sogar verstärkt an, und es bleibt ein Risiko, dass die Geldpolitik gegensteuern muss. |
| Abstract: | Global output growth slowed down only slightly and proved resilient amid trade conflicts and the resulting increase in uncertainty. World trade has even risen sharply. Both trade and investment continue to be buoyed by the boom in AI-related technologies. Monetary policy in the United States is expected to be eased further, while in the euro area policy rates are likely to remain at their current level for the time being. At the same time, fiscal policy will be expansionary on aggregate-driven in part by substantial increases in defense spending in many countries in response to the altered geopolitical environment. However, the dampening effects of US tariff policy are likely to become increasingly apparent, especially since US tariffs can be expected to remain permanently high. Against this backdrop, we expect the global economic expansion to gradually slow down further over the coming months, as growth in the United States and the euro area is likely to temporarily weaken and the business outlook in China has recently deteriorated. Given the robust developments so far, we have nevertheless revised our forecast for global output - based on purchasing power parities - markedly upwards compared with our autumn forecast, by 0.3 percentage points each for both this year and next, to 3.3 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. For 2027, we now expect global growth to accelerate to 3.2 percent. The decline in inflation came to a halt in 2025; in the United States, prices have even increased more strongly due to tariffs, and there remains a risk that monetary policy will eventually have to tighten in response. |
| Keywords: | China, Europa, Konjunktur Welt, Europäische Union & Euro, Fiskalpolitik & Haushalt, Internationale Finanzen, Internationaler Handel, Arbeitsmarkt, Migration, Geldpolitik |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:334584 |
| By: | Puig Jorge Pablo; García Thomas; Porto Alberto; Puig Julián; Rodriguez Chamuss Lourdes; Vezza Evelyn |
| Abstract: | Reversing energy subsidies poses a complex policy challenge, with distributional effects being a central concern since such subsidies are often justified as protection for the most vulnerable households. This paper analyzes the case of the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA) in Argentina, where, after decades of substantial residential energy subsidies, a gradual reduction process has recently begun. A distinctive feature of this reform is the introduction of targeting mechanisms that segment users primarily by self-reported income. The subsidy rollback unfolded in a highly adverse macroeconomic context—marked by currency devaluation and high inflation—which also affected income distribution beyond the tariff adjustments themselves. Using microdata and administrative records, we document that subsidies, historically pro-rich yet progressive, are now better targeted and consequently even more progressive. Both the classification of users and the subsidy amounts assigned to each group reinforced this progressive shift. Nevertheless, the difficult macroeconomic environment has made the path toward improved distributional outcomes non-linear. The Argentine experience offers valuable lessons for other countries facing similar policy challenges. |
| JEL: | H22 D31 D78 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4830 |
| By: | Luengo Vera, Carlos; Bhimani, Alnoor; Gómez Gandia, Jose; de Lucas, Antonio |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is transforming the architecture of the workplace and reconfiguring managerial agency in contemporary organisations. While prior research has explored task automation and human–machine collaboration, scholarship has under-examined to the broader structural and epistemic implications of GenAI on authority, coordination, and organisational decision-making. To address this gap, a bibliometric and conceptual analysis was conducted on a corpus of 212 Scopus-indexed publications (2018–2025). Using VOSviewer and Bibliometrix, the study maps performance trends, thematic structures, and the conceptual evolution of the field. The findings reveal a dynamic knowledge domain where technical constructs such as large language models and generative adversarial networks intersect with behavioural and managerial concepts including autonomy, coordination, and decision-making. Thematic mapping and co-word analysis uncover six coherent conceptual clusters, while a Sankey diagram of thematic evolution illustrates the convergence of lexical frameworks and the pivotal role of a small group of authors in structuring the discourse. The article advances a conceptual framework of the algorithmic workplace, characterised by hybrid agency, decentralised decision-making, and the erosion of rigid managerial boundaries. It suggests a transition from command-and-control models to guide-and-collaborate paradigms, with GenAI acting as a socio-technical intermediary in decision-support processes. By offering a systematic and theory-informed mapping of the field, the study contributes to emerging scholarship on AI-enabled organisational transformation and outlines future trajectories for research at the intersection of technology, management, and decision systems. |
| Keywords: | generative artificial intelligence; algorithmic workplace; organisational decision making; managerial transformation; bibliometric analysis; thematic mapping; socio-technical systems; work design |
| JEL: | J50 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130823 |
| By: | Liang, Haoyue; Ge, Houtian; Gomez, Miguel I.; Peters, Christian J. |
| Abstract: | Efficient facility location is vital for optimizing perishable fresh produce supply chains, especially in regions with fragmented production and dense demand. This study develops a mixed-integer programming framework to identify cost-optimal food hub locations and capacities for the U.S. fresh produce supply chain, with a particular focus on the New York–New England (NY–NE) region. The model integrates spatially resolved data on production, trade, and consumption across nine food categories and applies a two-tiered resolution strategy: national-scale aggregation using Major Land Resource Areas and Grocery Marketing Areas, and county-level disaggregation within NY–NE. Results reveal a hub-and-spoke network shaped by cost efficiencies, with strategic hubs emerging in both production-heavy and consumption-dense areas. The NY–NE sub model highlights the region's heavy reliance on long-distance sourcing and the need for region-specific infrastructure planning. By linking optimization with granular flow analysis, this work advances supply chain modeling for regional food resilience and cost-effective distribution planning. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361063 |
| By: | Amin, Mohammad; Islam, Asif Mohammed; Padhi, Debasmita |
| Abstract: | The business practices of unregistered or informal enterprises can significantly affect their performance and the overall productivity of the sector. However, very little is known about the prevalence of business practices and the sorts of factors that influence their adoption among informal enterprises. This is especially the case in the context of fragile economies. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by analyzing the adoption of business practices among informal enterprises in the Central African Republic, which serves as a unique context – high informality, low education attainment, and recurrent shocks including conflict and the AIDS epidemic. While several factors correlated with the decision to adopt business practices are uncovered, the focus is on the education level of the business owner or manager. A conservative estimate suggests that relative to no education or up to primary education, secondary or higher education increases the likelihood of adopting one or more of the nine business practices considered by about 10 percentage points. The number of business practices adopted increases by 0.66 (against a mean value of 1.7). The paper shows that the positive impact of education is most likely causal using entropy balancing, inverse probability weighting, the Oster test for selection on observables, and the impact of the AIDS epidemic in the latter half of the 1990s on school enrollment as an instrument for the education level of current business owners. The analysis also finds significant heterogeneities in the relationship between education and business practices. Belonging to a business association and a business owner’s past experience in the industry may compensate for a lack of formal education, while the use of electricity, manufacturing versus services activity, and location in Bangui city versus Berberati complement and magnify the positive effect of education. The paper discusses several avenues for future research. |
| Date: | 2026–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11280 |
| By: | Travon Lucius; Christian Koch Jr; Jacob Starling; Julia Zhu; Miguel Urena; Carrie Hu |
| Abstract: | We present a reinforcement-learning (RL) framework for dynamic hedging of equity index option exposures under realistic transaction costs and position limits. We hedge a normalized option-implied equity exposure (one unit of underlying delta, offset via SPY) by trading the underlying index ETF, using the option surface and macro variables only as state information and not as a direct pricing engine. Building on the "deep hedging" paradigm of Buehler et al. (2019), we design a leak-free environment, a cost-aware reward function, and a lightweight stochastic actor-critic agent trained on daily end-of-day panel data constructed from SPX/SPY implied volatility term structure, skew, realized volatility, and macro rate context. On a fixed train/validation/test split, the learned policy improves risk-adjusted performance versus no-hedge, momentum, and volatility-targeting baselines (higher point-estimate Sharpe); only the GAE policy's test-sample Sharpe is statistically distinguishable from zero, although confidence intervals overlap with a long-SPY benchmark so we stop short of claiming formal dominance. Turnover remains controlled and the policy is robust to doubled transaction costs. The modular codebase, comprising a data pipeline, simulator, and training scripts, is engineered for extensibility to multi-asset overlays, alternative objectives (e.g., drawdown or CVaR), and intraday data. From a portfolio management perspective, the learned overlay is designed to sit on top of an existing SPX or SPY allocation, improving the portfolio's mean-variance trade-off with controlled turnover and drawdowns. We discuss practical implications for portfolio overlays and outline avenues for future work. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.12420 |
| By: | ZOHA, MAMUN UZ (University of Technology Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming financial services and, in doing so, is exposing gaps between technological adoption and existing regulatory frameworks. This paper examines why the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has moved to provide guidance on AI use in financial services, and explores how different degrees of regulation—from none to very heavy—would shape market behaviour and systemic risk. Using Australia as the primary case, and Japan and the United States as benchmarks, the discussion considers AI both as an investment theme that challenges superannuation chief investment officers (CIOs) and as a potential investor or advisory agent in its own right. A qualitative, scenario-based analysis is used to reflect on implications for capital markets, volatility, portfolio composition and the risk of market failure. The paper argues for a balanced, principle-based regulatory approach that maintains innovation and efficiency while preserving market integrity and investor protection. Keywords: Artificial intelligence; financial regulation; ASIC; superannuation; systemic risk; market volatility; herding; governance; Australia; Japan; United States |
| Date: | 2025–12–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:xer7g_v1 |
| By: | Kengo IGEI; Hayato UMETANI; Yohei KOBAYASHI; Ryo TAKAHASHI; Makiko NAKAMURO |
| Abstract: | In recent years, efforts to promote Evidence-Based Policy Making (EBPM) have gained momentum at both national and local governments in Japan. However, the actual practices remain fragmented and vary significantly in content across municipalities. To realize effective EBPM, it is essential to concretely understand how evidence and EBPM are perceived and implemented within the policy making institutions. We conducted an exploratory analysis based on data collected through a web-based questionnaire survey targeting administrative officials in 21 local governments. We found considerable variation among officials in their understanding of evidence and EBPM, as well as in their engagement with EBPM-related activities. These differences are closely linked to prior experience with EBPM activities. Furthermore, a gap was identified between the types of information considered as “evidence†and the information referenced during policy making. Similarly, discrepancies were observed between conceptual understandings of EBPM and its practical application. Based on these results, we discuss the current status and future challenges of EBPM implementation in local governments. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25033 |
| By: | Alberto José Figueras (UNC-CIECS) |
| Abstract: | Con ciertas prevenciones, no exentas de temores, tengo la audacia de escribir estas líneas polémicas, controversiales, contra la corriente más habitual en que nos movemos: la búsqueda del crecimiento sin más. Este artículo aborda la cuestión del crecimiento económico como una meta en sí misma, desde una perspectiva al estilo de los Clásicos, esto es desde la “filosofía social”. La noción de crecimiento económico ilimitado ha dominado el discurso económico y político durante décadas. Sin embargo, este trabajo sostiene que esta perspectiva es muy cuestionable y debería ser reexaminada. Keynes se preguntaba, desde una visión ética, que si el crecimiento es un medio para conseguir un fin ¿Cuál es éste? ¿Y cuánto crecimiento es bastante? Se cuestiona la relación entre crecimiento económico y “calidad de vida” (bienestar humano), y se exploran las consecuencias sociales y ambientales de un modelo de desarrollo basado en el crecimiento ilimitado. Se señala la distinción entre la escasez relativa de Ricardo, salvable por el sistema de precios, y la escasez de Malthus o escasez absoluta, insuperable vía los precios relativos por la sencilla razón de que la naturaleza es finita. ¿Estaremos frente a la gran “trampa del progreso”? A través de un análisis crítico de los costos presentes en el proceso de crecimiento, se argumenta a favor de un modelo económico alternativo que hace uso del concepto de "estado estacionario selectivo". Este modelo busca conciliar el progreso social con la preservación de los recursos, al limitar el crecimiento económico en ciertas áreas y promoverlo en otras. Se exploran las implicaciones de esta propuesta y se discuten algunos aspectos que se encuentran en la historia del pensamiento así como el cruce de miradas con otras disciplinas. Si bien, esto más que una propuesta representa una protesta y una exhortación a la cautela respecto al rumbo que estamos siguiendo actualmente. |
| Keywords: | Estado Estacionario; Decrecimiento; .Desarrollo Sostenible; Cambio Cultural |
| JEL: | A13 B59 O10 P16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:382 |
| By: | Minde, Nicodemus |
| Abstract: | Die internationalen Beziehungen Afrikas gehen davon aus, dass Afrikas periphere Stellung ein proaktiveres Vorgehen in globalen Fragen erfordert - ein Konzept, das als African agency (afrikanische Handlungsfähigkeit) bezeichnet wird. In der Konfliktmediation lässt sich jedoch eine Erosion dieser afrikanischen Handlungsfähigkeit beobachten: Fragen von Frieden und Sicherheit auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent werden immer stärker durch externe Akteure geprägt. Unter dem Leitmotiv "Afrikanische Lösungen für afrikanische Probleme" (African solutions to African problems) wurden die Afrikanische Union (AU) und die Regionalen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaften (RECs) zum zentralen Ausdruck afrikanischer Handlungsfähigkeit. Inzwischen leiden sie jedoch unter organisatorischen und institutionellen Schwächen, knappen Finanzmitteln und einer begrenzten Durchsetzungsfähigkeit - eine Lücke, die zunehmend von externen Akteuren geschlossen wird. Golfstaaten wie Saudi-Arabien, Katar und die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate sind zu wichtigen Vermittlern in afrikanischen Konflikten geworden. Ihr Engagement wird vor allem von geopolitischen Ambitionen, sicherheitspolitischen Erwägungen und wirtschaftlichen Interessen getragen - insbesondere am Horn von Afrika und in der Großen-Seen-Region. Die Krise des Multilateralismus - gekennzeichnet durch einen Rückgang globaler Kooperation und veränderte Machtverhältnisse - hat dazu geführt, dass sogenannte Mittelmächte das Vakuum füllen, das der Rückzug westlicher Staaten hinterlassen hat. Um die Handlungsfähigkeit zurückzugewinnen, ist es entscheidend, die AU und die afrikanischen RECs zu stärken und Koordinierungsmechanismen auszubauen, um Doppelstrukturen und Überschneidungen bei Friedensinitiativen zu vermeiden. Afrika muss die Kontrolle über seine Friedensagenda zurückerlangen, indem es externe Partner auf Augenhöhe einbindet. Die wachsende geopolitische Bedeutung des Kontinents ist dabei zugleich Herausforderung und Chance, seine agency neu zu definieren und die Solidarität in einer multipolaren Welt zu erneuern. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:sefggs:334581 |
| By: | Harpenau, Franziska; Abbasi, Faisal; Wiewiorra, Lukas |
| Abstract: | As online platforms increasingly rely on algorithmic systems to curate, rank, and remove content, concerns about the societal and economic consequences of algorithmic decision-making have intensified, and with them the importance of algorithmic auditing. However, there is a lack of universal, practical guidance on the specific steps involved in designing and implementing platform audits across different problem domains and under varying conditions of data access, methodological constraints and legal obligations. This paper aims to address this gap by deriving a generalised framework with fine-grained, concrete steps required for the practical implementation of algorithmic audits using a broad focus on potential methodologies and a broad focus on potential application scenarios. The framework is based on a structural analysis of empirical audit approaches in the two domains of moderation of illegal and harmful content and of potential self-preferencing in recommendation algorithms, combined with further methodological literature. On this basis, the paper specifies the sequence of steps involved in carrying out audits in practice, identifies recurring challenges encountered across settings, and proposes a classification of audit approaches, incorporating advantages and disadvantages, and concrete examples. The proposed unified process model refines and operationalises existing high-level frameworks, while generalising more fine-grained domain-specific approaches. Furthermore, it demonstrates that meaningful audits can be conducted under restrictive access conditions, but that platform support can substantially improve the feasibility of precise, generalisable and causally informative findings. Taken together, these contributions offer regulators, platforms, and independent auditors a practical basis for systematically scrutinising complex platform algorithms and for interpreting audit results with greater rigour. |
| Abstract: | Da Online-Plattformen zunehmend algorithmische Systeme nutzen, wachsen die Bedenken über gesellschaftliche und wirtschaftliche Folgen algorithmischer Entscheidungen und damit die Bedeutung des algorithmischen Auditings. Es fehlt jedoch an universellen, praxisnahen Leitfäden für die Schritte zur Entwicklung und Durchführung von Plattform-Audits in verschiedenen Problembereichen und unter unterschiedlichen Bedingungen des Datenzugangs, methodischer Einschränkungen und rechtlicher Verpflichtungen. Diese Studie zielt darauf ab, diese Lücke zu schließen, indem sie einen universellen Leitfaden mit detaillierten, konkreten Schritten für die praktische Umsetzung algorithmischer Audits mit breitem Fokus auf mögliche Methoden und Anwendungsfälle entwickelt. Der Leitfaden stützt sich auf eine strukturelle Analyse empirischer Auditansätze in den beiden Bereichen der Moderation illegaler und schädlicher Inhalte sowie potenzieller Selbstbevorzugung in Empfehlungsalgorithmen, kombiniert mit weiterer methodischer Literatur. Darauf aufbauend spezifiziert die Studie die nötigen Schritte für Audits in der Praxis, identifiziert wiederkehrende Herausforderungen unter unterschiedlichen Bedingungen und schlägt eine Klassifizierung von Auditansätzen vor, inklusive mit Vor- und Nachteilen sowie Beispielen. Das vorgeschlagene einheitliche Prozessmodell verfeinert und operationalisiert bestehende weniger detaillierte Rahmenwerke und verallgemeinert gleichzeitig detailliertere domänenspezifische Ansätze. Darüber hinaus demonstriert sie, dass aussagekräftige Audits auch unter restriktiven Zugangsbedingungen realisierbar sind, wobei Plattformunterstützung das Erreichen präziser, verallgemeinerbarer und kausal belastbarer Ergebnisse signifikant verbessert. Insgesamt liefern diese Beiträge Regulierungsbehörden, Plattformen und unabhängigen Prüfern eine praktische Grundlage für das systematische Auditing komplexer Plattformalgorithmen und eine differenziertere Interpretation von Auditergebnissen. |
| Keywords: | algorithmic auditing, digital platforms, content moderation, self-preferencing |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wikwps:334525 |
| By: | Amar, Amine; Antonio, Ronald Jeremy S.; Okou, Cyrille Guei; Pede, Valerien O. |
| Abstract: | Demand for rice in Africa has been steadily increasing due to population and economic growth and changing preferences. However, low production growth has led to major gaps between rice supply and demand leading to import reliance. Given the concerns on long term food security and availability that comes with import reliance, many studies have focused on evaluating how shocks in the global markets and exporting countries are transmitted to import reliant countries. With this development, our paper furthers this endeavour by developing an econometric predictive framework to identify dependency relationships for forecasting purposes, which provides information not only on the relationship between African countries and its import sources, but also how current prices impact future prices. The novelty of our study lies in integrating the Vine Copula into cointegration analysis to forecast future rice prices using monthly time series data from three sub-Saharan African countries between 2018 and 2024. The results demonstrate a high predictive performance from the proposed approach and finds that food insecurity dynamics are both asymmetric and path dependent. Additional insights are obtained through sensitivity and impulse response analyses. |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360696 |
| By: | Conor Carney; Jon Denton-Schneider |
| Abstract: | Guinea worm disease (GWD) was known as 'the disease of the empty granary' because it often incapacitated adult farmers for weeks during peak agricultural seasons. Using a difference-in-differences design, we show that its post-1989 eradication from Ghana increased agricultural productivity and women's paid employment and decreased child marriage rates. In the long run, adults who were children around 1990 are more likely to hold formal employment outside of agriculture, be literate, and live in urban areas. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural productivity, Intergenerational Mobility, Health, Ghana |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-111 |
| By: | Lewis, Trudy |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to provide an overview of the current status of negotiations in the WTO, ACP/EU, FTAA and the CSME. It will highlight the critical issues within each forum. It is hoped that this presentation will reinforce the need for participation from all sectors (organisations, civil society, business community, agricultural cooperative societies) in this process if the needs of the Caribbean are to be articulated and realized through the multilateral system. This is particularly significant when viewed from the perspective of the world inequality that has persisted despite the , avowals of the protagonists of globalisation and trade liberalization. What is the current state of negotiations in the WTO? What is the Cotonou Agreement about? Everyone must have heard of the FTAA by now. But some of you may wonder, where does agriculture fit into this? And lastly how is the CSME going to impact on my operation, my field of study, especially when we face "bigger" global challenges. This paper will answer these questions by first presenting today's situation. Then it will offer simple suggestions for improving our chances in the multilateral trading system. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:carc02:265544 |
| By: | Marcel Nutz; Alessandro Prosperi |
| Abstract: | We study the high-frequency limit of an $n$-trader optimal execution game in discrete time. Traders face transient price impact of Obizhaeva--Wang type in addition to quadratic instantaneous trading costs $\theta(\Delta X_t)^2$ on each transaction $\Delta X_t$. There is a unique Nash equilibrium in which traders choose liquidation strategies minimizing expected execution costs. In the high-frequency limit where the grid of trading dates converges to the continuous interval $[0, T]$, the discrete equilibrium inventories converge at rate $1/N$ to the continuous-time equilibrium of an Obizhaeva--Wang model with additional quadratic costs $\vartheta_0(\Delta X_0)^2$ and $\vartheta_T(\Delta X_T)^2$ on initial and terminal block trades, where $\vartheta_0=(n-1)/2$ and $\vartheta_T=1/2$. The latter model was introduced by Campbell and Nutz as the limit of continuous-time equilibria with vanishing instantaneous costs. Our results extend and refine previous results of Schied, Strehle, and Zhang for the particular case $n=2$ where $\vartheta_0=\vartheta_T=1/2$. In particular, we show how the coefficients $\vartheta_0=(n-1)/2$ and $\vartheta_T=1/2$ arise endogenously in the high-frequency limit: the initial and terminal block costs of the continuous-time model are identified as the limits of the cumulative discrete instantaneous costs incurred over small neighborhoods of $0$ and $T$, respectively, and these limits are independent of $\theta>0$. By contrast, when $\theta=0$ the discrete-time equilibrium strategies and costs exhibit persistent oscillations and admit no high-frequency limit, mirroring the non-existence of continuous-time equilibria without boundary block costs. Our results show that two different types of trading frictions -- a fine time discretization and small instantaneous costs in continuous time -- have similar regularizing effects and select a canonical model in the limit. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.11765 |
| By: | Dijkhuizen, Josette (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Pak, Karen (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:d33bfd36-b9d3-4757-9181-bbb8bdacb19b |
| By: | Fan, Fan; Ramsey, A. Ford; Liu, Yong |
| Abstract: | Climate change poses an increasing threat to global wheat production, yet the role of genetic diversity in shaping crop sensitivity to warming remains underexplored. This study examines varietal, seasonal, and spatial heterogeneity in U.S. winter wheat yield responses to climate stress using over 35, 000 variety-by-location observations from multi-environment trials (1962–2022). By linking trial data to high-resolution weather records and applying a linear mixed-effects model, we estimate genotype- and location-specific yield responses to seasonal temperature variation and extremes. Results show that spring heat and fall freezing are key drivers of yield loss, with spring heat alone reducing yields by an average of 13.5% per 10-unit increase in cumulative degree days above 34°C. Although the yield potential is positively associated with the first trial year of a variety, heat tolerance has not shown a corresponding improvement. Simulations suggest that warming beyond +2°C results in steep yield declines, particularly among heat-sensitive cultivars. These findings provide new empirical evidence on the distribution of heat resilience in the wheat gene pool and underscore the need to integrate heat tolerance into future breeding strategies. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361071 |
| By: | Aleksandar Vasilev (Lincoln International Business School, UK) |
| Abstract: | Housing stock, and the accumulation of utility-enhancing housing capital are introduced as an additional mechanism into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. The model is calibrated to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2024). The quantitative importance of the presence of housing capital accumulation is investigated for the propagation of cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. In particular, allowing for housing considerations in the setup improves the model vis-a-vis data by increasing the variability of employment and decreasing the variability of consumption and investment. However, those improvements are at the cost of decreasing the volatility of wages. The model severely over-predicts variability of housing investment, and wrongly concludes that it is counter-cyclical. Still, the model with housing is a clear improvement relative to the standard RBC setup. |
| Keywords: | business cycles, housing, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2026-01 |
| By: | Cainelli, Giulio; Ciccarelli, Carlo; Ganau, Roberto |
| Abstract: | We study how changes in a country’s administrative hierarchy affect development at the city level. We exploit the 1806 Napoleonic administrative reform implemented in the Kingdom of Naples as a historical experiment to assess whether district capitals endowed with supra-municipal administrative functions gained an urban development premium compared with non-capital cities. We find that district capitals recorded a population growth premium throughout the nineteenth century (1828–1911) and experienced higher industrialization both before and after the Italian unification (1861) compared with non-capital cities. We explain our results through mechanisms related to public goods provision and transport network accessibility. |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130883 |
| By: | Arenas Arroyo, Esther |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the home sewing machine on women’s work and intergenerational mobility—an innovation that enabled women to generate income from within the household. Marketed directly to women as a tool for both domestic use and paid work, it provides a unique setting to examine how household technologies reshaped labor markets and intergenerational outcomes. Exploiting the expansion of sewing machine sales agents, which generated geographic and temporal variation in access, I show that access to sewing machines increased demand for dressmakers, raised women’s employment in this occupation, and reduced reliance on child labor. In the long run, children exposed in early life attained higher literacy, formed smaller families, and experienced greater intergenerational mobility. These findings highlight the household as a crucial site of technological change, showing how domestic innovations could expand women’s opportunities and generate lasting gains across generations. |
| Keywords: | women's work; home production; child labor; children |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:80178076 |
| By: | Shigeru Fujita (CIT - Chiba Institute of Technology); Kenji Sugawara (CIT - Chiba Institute of Technology); Thierry Gidel (COSTECH - Connaissance Organisation et Systèmes TECHniques - UTC - Université de Technologie de Compiègne); Claude Moulin (Heudiasyc - Heuristique et Diagnostic des Systèmes Complexes [Compiègne] - UTC - Université de Technologie de Compiègne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Insaf Setitra (Heudiasyc - Heuristique et Diagnostic des Systèmes Complexes [Compiègne] - UTC - Université de Technologie de Compiègne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we show how an artificial intelligence system is able to recognize actions of a group of people during remote meetings. It is based on the combination of several basic detections. We explain why it is a very important task in order to help a coach manage teams. In particular, we explain how the recognition of discussions allows to measure the collaboration between participants or possibly their isolation. We detail the action of Eye Contact where two people look at each other during a discussion. We present the algorithm of the module of our system in charge of the recognition of an Eye Contact action and the difficulties raised by this module. We conclude with the heuristics rules that would allow to detect higher level of group actions from individual actions in brainstorming sessions. |
| Keywords: | Eye-contact, Eye Contact Detection, Neural Network, Video Dataset, Attention target detection, group actions, heuristics |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05388863 |
| By: | Dimitris Korobilis |
| Abstract: | We revisit macroeconomic time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs), whose persistent coefficients may adapt too slowly to large, abrupt shifts such as those during major crises. We explore the performance of an adaptively-varying parameter (AVP) VAR that incorporates deterministic adjustments driven by observable exogenous variables, replacing latent state innovations with linear combinations of macroeconomic and financial indicators. This reformulation collapses the state equation into the measurement equation, enabling simple linear estimation of the model. Simulations show that adaptive parameters are substantially more parsimonious than conventional TVPs, effectively disciplining parameter dynamics without sacrificing flexibility. Using macroeconomic datasets for both the U.S. and the euro area, we demonstrate that AVP-VAR consistently improves out-of-sample forecasts, especially during periods of heightened volatility. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bny:wpaper:0144 |
| By: | Fossati Roman; Romero Agustina; Rachinger Heiko; Porto Natalia |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between tourism specialization and quality of life across Argentinean jurisdictions from 2009 to 2019. We construct multidimensional indicators for both tourism specialization—capturing two supply-side and one demand-side dimension—and quality of life, assessed across nine domains including economy, education, environment, and technology. To address complexity and unobserved heterogeneity, we apply principal component analysis and fixed effects panel data models. Our findings reveal a positive and heterogeneous association between tourism specialization and quality of life. Notably, the economic dimension is most strongly linked to tourism, particularly on the supply side, while health and environmental dimensions show the weakest associations. From a policy perspective, the evidence suggests that promoting tourism can play a significant role in fostering stronger economic outcomes, and that policymakers should prioritize supply-side instruments to support this goal. |
| JEL: | C01 C52 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4802 |
| By: | Eizaguerri Floris, Maria |
| Abstract: | Resumen Este trabajo analiza los efectos del teletrabajo sobre el bienestar subjetivo, la depresión y el equilibrio vida trabajo de los empleados suecos en 2021. Con microdatos representativos del EWCTS y una muestra de 1281 individuos, se estiman modelos OLS, logit y logit ordenado que relacionan la intensidad del teletrabajo (ninguno, parcial, completo) con los tres resultados, controlando por características individuales, del hogar, del empleo y por la tele trabajabilidad del puesto. Los resultados muestran que el teletrabajo no altera de forma significativa el bienestar medio, pero el teletrabajo completo mejora claramente el equilibrio vida trabajo y, a la vez, los jóvenes teletrabajadores presentan mayor probabilidad de síntomas depresivos que sus homólogos presenciales. En un contexto sueco de teletrabajo híbrido ya normalizado, el impacto agregado sobre el bienestar es neutro, pero el diseño concreto del teletrabajo resulta clave para evitar nuevos focos de vulnerabilidad psicológica. Abstract This paper studies the effects of telework on subjective well being, depression and work–life balance among Swedish employees in 2021. Using representative EWCTS microdata and a sample of 1, 281 individuals, we estimate weighted OLS, logit and ordered logit models linking telework intensity (none, partial, fulltime) to these three outcomes, controlling for individual, household and job characteristics and for job tele workability. Results show that telework does not significantly affect average well being, while full time telework clearly improves work–life balance and, at the same time, young teleworkers are more likely to report depressive symptoms than comparable non teleworkers. In Sweden’s already normalized hybrid telework regime, the aggregate impact on well being appears neutral, but the specific design and conditions of telework are crucial to prevent new pockets of psychological vulnerability. |
| Keywords: | Palabras clave: teletrabajo, depresión, bienestar, balance vida-trabajo, logit, Suecia.; telework, depression, wellbeing, work-life balance, logit, Sweden. |
| JEL: | J22 J28 O52 |
| Date: | 2026–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127673 |
| By: | Sarah Auster; Yeon-Koo Che |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the classic Pandora's box problem, studying a decision-maker (DM) who seeks to minimize her maximal ex-post regret. The DM decides how many options to explore and in what order, before choosing one or taking an outside option. We characterize the regret-minimizing search rule and show that the likelihood of opting out often increases as more options become available for exploration. We show that this ``choice overload" is driven by the DM's fear of ``selection error" -- the regret from searching the wrong options -- suggesting that steering choice via recommendations or cost heterogeneity can mitigate regret and encourage search. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.21192 |
| By: | Hanks, Andrew S.; Kniffin, Kevin M.; Qian, Xuechao; Wang, Bo; Weinberg, Bruce A. |
| Abstract: | Researchers have studied how outcomes relate to identity and are increasingly considering complex identities. To study individuals with more than one identity, we focus on dissertators in the United States whose work has one or more identities (academic fields). Our novel estimation method leverages a two-step process to characterize the earnings of interdisciplinary dissertators as functions of the identities they acquire as graduate students (by studying more than one academic field). We estimate a first-stage regression of log earnings for monodisciplinarians and then regress log earnings for interdisciplinarians on functions of the first-stage coefficients. We find that (i) interdisciplinarians have lower earnings than disciplinarians; (ii) interdisciplinarians’ earnings are more strongly related to primary than secondary disciplines; and, (iii) interdisciplinarians’ earnings are positively related to the higher-paid discipline, especially for those entering industry. Our two-step method provides a framework for parsing and estimating the varied impacts of multiple identities across a wide range of contexts. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361077 |
| By: | Lu, Qinan; Karwowski, Nicole; Liu, Pengfei; Wu, Karin |
| Abstract: | As renewable energy development accelerates, wind turbines are increasingly being installed on agricultural land, raising questions about their effects on crop production. This paper investigates the impact of wind turbine installations on agricultural productivity using a high-resolution dataset that combines parcel-level corn yield data with detailed information on wind turbine locations and weather characteristics. Using Difference-in-differences approach to address potential endogeneity, we find that parcels within an 8-kilometer radius of wind turbines experienced, on average, a 1% increase in corn yield after installation. These results suggest that localized microclimatic changes induced by turbines may improve growing conditions. Our findings highlight an overlooked positive externality of renewable energy infrastructure and underscore the importance of incorporating land-use interactions into energy policy and planning. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360609 |
| By: | Bonifacio Agustín Germán; Amieva Adriana; Neme Pablo |
| Abstract: | We examine the problem of assigning teachers to public schools over time when teachers have tenured positions and can work simultaneously in multiple schools. To do this, we investigate a dynamic many-to-many school choice problem where public schools have priorities over teachers and teachers hold path-independent choice functions selecting subsets of schools. We introduce a new concept of dynamic stability that recognizes the tenured positions of teachers and we prove that a dynamically stable matching always exists. We propose the Tenure-Respecting Deferred Acceptance (TRDA) mechanism, which produces a dynamically stable matching that is constrained efficient within the class of dynamically stable matchings and minimizes unjustified claims. To improve efficiency beyond this class, we also propose the Tenure-Respecting Efficiency-Adjusted Deferred Acceptance (TREADA) mechanism, an adaptation of the Efficiency-Adjusted Deferred Acceptance mechanism to our dynamic context. We demonstrate that the outcome of the TREADA mechanism Pareto-dominates any dynamically stable matching and achieves efficiency when all teachers consent. Additionally, we examine the issue of manipulability, showing that although TRDA and TREADA mechanisms can be manipulated, they remain non-obviously dynamically manipulable under specific conditions on schools’ priorities. |
| JEL: | D71 C78 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4780 |
| By: | Buckmire, George E. |
| Abstract: | Regional cooperation in agricultural production and marketing has been accepted by Commonwealth Caribbean Governments as an essential and desirable objective in the movement towards closer economic integration. In the five years of Carifta, a considerable measure of regional cooperation has been achieved through the growth of intra-regional trade in both manufactured and certain agricultural commodities. In the case of trade in the latter, much of this has been conducted under the Agricultural Marketing Protocol (AMP) which forms an integral part of the Carifta Agreement and is the principal instrument outlining any form of agricultural policy. The Protocol is essentially a marketing Agreement and makes no provision for regulating agricultural production among Carifta Member States. It has been recognised by Carifta Governments that while the provisions for marketing contained in the AMP are necessary in themselves, they are insufficient to achieve the long-term goals for the development of agriculture and trade in the Region and a satisfactory redistribution of benefits among all Member Territories. In fact, in the five-year history of Carifta trade and production have tended to polarise in favour of the More Developed Countries, a consequence thought largely due to differences in resource endowment. The Carifta Governments have endorsed rationalisation of agriculture as an appropriate strategy for working towards closer regional cooperation in agricultural production and marketing. Rationalisation is conceived as a means of achieving certain levels of national specialisation in agricultural production and optimising the use of national and regional resources. An important and immediate aim of rationalizing agricultural production in the region would be to reduce the current degree of duplication and competition in agricultural activities and to work towards the achievement of greater complementarity among national agricultural programmes. In the Caribbean the concept of rationalisation of agriculture is without precedence and this is equally true for the application of such an approach in a regional economic grouping. National political considerations together with the current efforts of Member Governments, independently and insularly, to expand and diversify their economic activities add to the difficulties of accepting, let alone applying such an untried approach to agricultural development in the Region. This paper discusses the current efforts in Carifta to promote closer cooperation in agricultural production and marketing and some of the problems inherent in developing such a strategy. The possible benefits to individual Member Territories and to the Region as a whole require no further elaboration. There are existing areas of cooperation both in production and marketing which clearly demonstrate some of the potential benefits and these will be examined briefly. Finally, the point is emphasised that any approach to regional cooperation in agriculture -- and this is equally true for other areas of activities -- cannot be based solely on economic considerations such as would be determined by comparative advantage criteria. Given the common historical experiences and current agricultural activities, the national aspirations, the similarities in the physical and climatic conditions in the Region, cooperation in agriculture will depend, in the final analysis, on political considerations and the degree of commitment to regional integration. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:carc72:264318 |
| By: | Baioni Tomás |
| Abstract: | One of the salient aspects of climate change is the increment of both the intensity and frequency of natural disasters. This paper addresses how these factors interplay at a local level, focusing on Chilean regions at a quarterly basis for the period 2009-2025, using the local projections method. Results suggest that on average, a 1% shock in natural disasters' intensity has an immediate negative effect in employment by 0.06%, and an immediate negative effect on the debt market, increasing the household debt by 0.1 p.p. Overall, my results suggest that a 1% shock in natural disasters' intensity has an immediate positive effect in real GDP by 0.02%, and a significant long-term negative effect on GDP by 0.05%, potentially showing signs of reallocation of a country's income. When analyzing natural disasters' frequency, estimates suggest that Chilean regions that suffer a natural disaster are more likely to experience short-term decreases in employment and increases in household debt, and lower GDP, although the latter effect is found to not be statistically significant. I rely on a panel VAR model to estimate the impact of natural disasters' intensity as robustness checks, and find that my original conclusions hold: natural disasters have a short-term negative effect on employment at 0.01% and a long-term negative effect on growth at 0.2%. |
| JEL: | H70 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4778 |
| By: | Keisuke HATTORI; Takeshi YOSHIKAWA |
| Abstract: | We analyze a two-stage duopoly where rivals first make non-cooperative demand-expanding investments yielding non-excludable benefits and then compete in product markets. Two efficiency paradoxes emerge endogenously. First, when production technologies are identical, firms with less efficient investment technology earn higher profits. Second, firms disadvantaged in both production and investment can outperform superior rivals. The mechanism is that market-expanding investments benefit all firms while costs fall disproportionately on efficient investors, enabling inefficient firms to free-ride. These paradoxes persist across product differentiation, simultaneous timing, and alternative aggregation technologies. Subsidies intended to remedy market failures paradoxically exacerbate efficiency reversals. While efficiency heterogeneity enhances short-run welfare through complementary effects, it may undermine long-run market selection, potentially causing inefficient monopolization. Our framework applies to brand advertising, platform development, standard-setting, and industry reputation, revealing fundamental tensions between static welfare gains and dynamic efficiency, with implications for competition policy and strategic management in coopetitive markets. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25126 |
| By: | Stockhausen, Maximilian; Niehues, Judith; Engel, Henrik |
| Abstract: | Trotz Rezession und Inflation lag Deutschland auch im Jahr 2023 unter den fünf Ländern der Europäischen Union (EU) mit der höchsten mittleren Kaufkraft der Einkommen. Obwohl die subjektiven Bewertungen des Haushaltsnettoeinkommens gegenüber dem Beginn der Coronapandemie - wie in vielen der einkommensstarken Länder - etwas negativer ausfallen, gibt es innerhalb der EU weiterhin nur wenige Länder, in denen die Einschätzungen positiver sind als in Deutschland. Tatsächlich berichteten in der europäischen Erhebung über Einkommen und Lebensbedingungen (EU-SILC) im Jahr 2023 in keinem der EU-27-Staaten weniger Menschen, relativ schlecht, schlecht oder sehr schlecht mit ihrem Einkommen auszukommen - und nur in den Niederlanden, Luxemburg und Schweden gaben mehr Menschen an, finanziell gut oder sehr gut zurechtzukommen. Dies spiegelt sich auch in der Entwicklung der Einkommensungleichheit wider. So zeichnet sich nach 2020 sowohl auf Basis des EU-SILC als auch des Mikrozensus (MZ) eine im Wesentlichen stabile Einkommensverteilung auf einem Niveau des Gini-Koeffizienten von 0, 3 oder knapp darunter ab. Im europäischen Vergleich ein durchschnittliches Niveau, welches ähnlich zu Schweden ist, und das sich seit 2005 auf Basis der Mikrodaten der amtlichen Statistik in Deutschland kaum verändert hat. Das Einkommensarmutsrisiko (präziser: Niedrigeinkommensquote) ist im EU-27-Vergleich unterdurchschnittlich ausgeprägt und hat sich nach überwiegender Datenlage nach 2020 strukturell nicht verschlechtert. Bezüglich der langfristigen Entwicklung des Armutsrisikos gilt es zu beachten, dass unterschiedliche Datenquellen teilweise voneinander abweichende Trends aufweisen. Während im EU-SILC die Entwicklung des Armutsrisikos zwischen 2008 und 2023 weitestgehend unauffällig bleibt und sich im Bereich von 15 Prozent bis 16 Prozent bewegt, zeichnet sich im MZ zwischen 2005 und bis zum Zeitreihenbruch im Jahr 2019 zunächst ein ansteigender Trend ab, der sich in großen Teilen durch die erhöhte Zuwanderung seit 2010 erklären lässt. Nach dem Jahr 2020 ist die Niedrigeinkommensquote - bei gleichzeitig sinkender realer Niedrigeinkommensschwelle - auf Basis des MZ leicht rückläufig. Vor dem Hintergrund der krisengeprägten Entwicklungen der vergangenen Jahre kann die in der Gesamtschau weitestgehend stabile Verteilungssituation durchaus als positiv bewertet werden. |
| Abstract: | Despite the recession and inflation during the past years, Germany remained among the five European Union (EU) countries with the highest average purchasing power of median income in 2023. Although subjective assessments of net household income are somewhat more negative than at the start of the coronavirus pandemic - as in many high-income countries - there are still only a few countries within the EU where subjective income assessments are more favourable than in Germany. In fact, in the 2023 EU-SILC survey, no EU-27 country reported a lower share of people saying they found it relatively hard, hard, or very hard to get by on their income - and only in the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Sweden did a higher share of people report managing well or very well financially. This is also reflected in the development of income inequality. According to both the EU-SILC and the microcensus, the income distribution after 2020 appears to be essentially stable at a Gini coefficient of 0.3 or slightly below. This is an average level in European comparison, similar to Sweden, that has hardly changed since 2005 based on microdata from official surveys in Germany. The risk of income poverty (more precisely: low-income rate) is below average in a comparison of the EU-27 and, according to the majority of survey data, has not structurally deteriorated after 2020. Regarding the longterm development of the risk of poverty, it should be noted that different data sources show varying trends. While the EU-SILC shows that the risk of poverty rate remains largely unchanged between 2008 and 2023, ranging between 15 per cent and 16 per cent, the microcensus initially shows an upward trend between 2005 and the break in the time series in 2019, which can largely be explained by increased immigration since 2010. After 2020, the low-income rate is slightly declining based on the microcensus, with a simultaneous decline in the real low-income threshold. Against the backdrop of the recent crises, the largely stable income distribution can be considered positive overall. |
| JEL: | D31 I32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:334498 |
| By: | Hossain, Marup; Songsermsawas, Tisorn |
| Abstract: | Climate change poses serious risks to agricultural production, particularly for small-holder farmers who often have limited resources to adapt to changing conditions. This study evaluates the impacts of a bundled intervention—combining training and financial support—on the adoption of climate technologies and the resilience of smallholder farmers in Nepal. Leveraging exogenous variation in project roll-out resulting from administrative restructuring following the country’s new constitution, we show that the intervention increases the uptake of selected adaptation practices and improves household resilience. Adoption is associated with the timing of expected benefits and exposure to extreme weather, but not with demographic factors such as the gender or education level of household heads. These findings underscore the importance of climate adaptation practices in enhancing the resilience of vulnerable smallholders and highlight that adoption patterns vary by type and contextual relevance of the practice. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361170 |
| By: | Jawwad Noor; Fernando Payró Chew |
| Abstract: | We study a dynamic predator–prey game in which a predator can conceal its movement under naturally occurring environmental noise. In the safe state, forest noise is i.i.d., whereas in the dangerous state the predator contributes additional noise as it approaches the prey. The prey updates her beliefs about danger from the realized noise sequence and chooses whether to remain vigilant. We characterize equilibrium patterns of noise generated in the forest and show that a marker for deception is a hot-hand effect, whereby streaks persist with increasing probability. |
| Keywords: | belief biases, deception, endogenous information, optimal stopping |
| JEL: | D01 D9 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1544 |
| By: | Chabakauri, Georgy; Fos, Vyacheslav; Jiang, Wei |
| Abstract: | Privately informed about firm fundamentals, corporate insiders detect activism-motivated trades better than other traders. This paper solves the model of this novel form of insider trading motivated by non-insider information and presents empirical evidence. Corporate insiders preserve their ownership (restraining from selling or buying more) before activist interventions go public to benefit from price appreciation and to defend their private benefits of control. Surveillance technology facilitates response to pre-disclosure activist trading, especially when positive information about firm fundamentals is absent, supporting the mechanism that insiders attribute order flows to activist interest when speculation on fundamentals can be ruled out. |
| Keywords: | insider trading; activism; market surveillance |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127189 |
| By: | Jeroen Hinloopen; Stephen Martin; Sander Onderstal; Leonard Treuren |
| Abstract: | Antitrust laws prohibit private firms to coordinate their market behavior, yet many types of interfirm cooperation are legal. Using laboratory experiments, we study spillovers from legal cooperation in one market to non-competitive prices in a different market. Our theoretical framework predicts that such cooperation spillovers are most likely to occur for intermediate levels of competition. Our experimental findings support this theoretical prediction. In addition, our experimental results show that repeated interaction and communication about prices in a market are not necessary to achieve non-competitive prices in that market, as long as subjects can form binding agreements in a different market. Results from additional treatments suggest that commitment and multimarket contact are necessary for cooperation spillovers to emerge. |
| Keywords: | STG/23/026#57790427 |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:msiper:779662 |
| By: | Hayo, Bernd; Zahner, Johannes |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between parliamentary debates and public expenditure by mapping legislative speeches to fiscally relevant topics and examining their connection in both long-term trends and short-term adjustments. Our analysis draws on transcripts of federal legislative discussions and federal government spending data in Germany (1950-2020), classified into nine policy functions (e.g. Social Security, National Defence and Education). We apply a state-of-the-art natural language processing technique - a structural topic model - to match identified debate topics to corresponding spending functions. Using cointegration analysis and error-correction models, we find (i) significant long-term equilibria between parliamentary debates and corresponding fiscal expenditure and (ii) that in cases of short-term disequilibrium, adjustments occur through government expenditure; that is, parliamentary debates are weakly exogenous. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal expenditure, parliamentary debate, Bundestag, text analysis, structural topic model, error-correction model |
| JEL: | E62 C32 D78 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:334478 |