|
on Investment |
| By: | Ina Ganguli; Raviv Murciano-Goroff |
| Abstract: | We study how exposure to scientific research in university laboratories influences students’ pursuit of careers in science. Using administrative data from thousands of research labs linked to student career outcomes and a difference-in-differences design, we show that state minimum wage increases reduce employment of undergraduate research assistants in labs by 7.4%. Undergraduates exposed to these minimum wage increases graduate with 18.1% fewer quarters of lab experience. Using minimum wage changes as an instrumental variable, we estimate that one fewer quarter working in a lab, particularly early in college, reduces the probability of working in the life sciences industry by 2 percentage points and of pursuing doctoral education by 7 percentage points. These effects are attenuated for students supported by the Federal Work-Study program. Our findings highlight how labor market policies can shape the career paths of future scientists and the importance of budget flexibility for principal investigators providing undergraduates with research experience. |
| JEL: | J24 J39 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34244 |
| By: | Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr; Louis J. Maiden |
| Abstract: | We characterize the careers of minimum wage workers by merging SIPP panels covering 1992-2016 into the LEHD. A long-run analysis shows strong earnings growth for these workers in subsequent decades, becoming indistinguishable from peers earning modestly more initially. Most of this growth is due to the steep earnings trajectories of young workers. Older workers earning minimum wages show a modest dip in earnings at that moment compared to earlier and later periods. Increases in state minimum wages do not significantly alter the future careers of workers who are on the minimum wage when the increases occur. |
| JEL: | D31 E24 J21 J31 J38 J42 J62 J78 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34405 |
| By: | Luis Orea (Department of Economics - Universidad de Oviedo = University of Oviedo); K Hervé Dakpo (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | One of the approaches to address the issue of production heterogeneity is to use latent class models. In most of these models, class membership either does not vary or might change freely over time. While the first assumption becomes increasingly untenable as the number of observed periods becomes larger, the second assumption is difficult to justify if important factors exist that prevent firms from switching classes back and forth several times. The present paper aims to develop a latent class model that allows firms to change from one class to another over time while permitting some degree of persistence in class membership. Our model can be used in settings with more than two classes and estimated using unbalanced panel datasets. An application of the empirical model in the context of dairy farm intensification is also provided. We find evidence of moderate resistance to replacing one milk production system with another in this sector, especially for small farms. Despite this, the standard latent class model performs reasonably well in terms of class-membership probabilities and temporal patterns. |
| Abstract: | L'une des approches permettant d'aborder la question de l'hétérogénéité de la production consiste à utiliser des modèles de classes latentes. Dans la plupart de ces modèles, l'appartenance à une classe ne varie pas ou peut changer librement au fil du temps. Si la première hypothèse devient de plus en plus intenable à mesure que le nombre de périodes observées augmente, la seconde est difficile à justifier s'il existe des facteurs importants qui empêchent les entreprises de changer plusieurs fois de classe. Le présent article vise à développer un modèle de classes latentes qui permette aux entreprises de passer d'une classe à une autre au fil du temps tout en autorisant un certain degré de persistance dans l'appartenance à une classe. Notre modèle peut être utilisé dans des contextes comportant plus de deux classes et estimé à l'aide d'ensembles de données de panel déséquilibrés. Une application du modèle empirique dans le contexte de l'intensification des exploitations laitières est également fournie. Nous constatons une résistance modérée au remplacement d'un système de production laitière par un autre dans ce secteur, en particulier pour les petites exploitations. Malgré cela, le modèle de classe latente standard fonctionne raisonnablement bien en termes de probabilités d'appartenance à une classe et de schémas temporels. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic frontier, Class persistence, Latent class model |
| Date: | 2025–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05322436 |
| By: | Li Xu; Yuqian Lu; Jianwei Zhong |
| Abstract: | This study examines the transition to permanent residency (PR) of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) in primary agriculture and the retention in the sector among those who obtained PR. The study focuses on TFWs whose first employment was in primary agriculture and who entered the sector between 2005 and 2020. Depending on the entry year, the transition rate is observed up to a maximum of 10 years after entry and the retention rate to a maximum of 5 years after PR transition. Overall, rates of transition from temporary to permanent residency were low among TFWs who first entered primary agriculture during the study period. Five years after entry, slightly more than 10% had obtained PR. After 10 years since workers were first employed in the sector, the cumulative transition rate reached 16.8%. Transition rates were considerably lower for TFWs with a designated occupation at a lower skill level than for those with one at a higher skill level. Rates were lower for TFWs with permits issued through the Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program than for those with permits issued through other work permit programs, and rates were lower for those entering crop production than for those entering other primary agriculture subsectors. Most TFWs who entered primary agriculture left the sector after receiving PR. One year after PR admission, half of former TFWs or less stayed in the sector; five years after PR admission, around one-fifth were still employed in the sector and more than 60% moved to another industry. Additionally, a significant portion of former TFWs did not have a T4 Statement of Remuneration Paid after their transition to PR. |
| Keywords: | temporary foreign workers, agriculture, transition to permanent residency, industry retention |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400300001e |
| By: | Jacke, Christian Olaf; Begerow, Tatjana; Schaarschmidt, Julia |
| Abstract: | Wichtigste Ergebnisse: *Das einreichungsorientierte Verfahren liefert ein zeitnahes, aber unvollständiges Bild: etwa 65 % der GOÄ-Sitzungen und 75 % der Arzneimittelverordnungen werden im selben Jahr in Anspruch genommen und eingereicht. Werden nur diese Leistungen berücksichtigt, fehlen die Leistungen eines Jahres, die erst zeitverzögert eingereicht werden. Das ressourcenorientierte Verfahren ergänzt nachträglich eingereichte Rechnungen und bildet die tatsächliche Inanspruchnahme damit nahezu vollständig ab - allerdings mit einer Zeitverzögerung. Mit den nachträglichen Einreichungen des ersten Folgejahres lassen sich bereits rund 98-99% der tatsächlichen Inanspruchnahme aufzeigen. *Für wissenschaftliche Studien wird das ressourcenorientierte Verfahren als Goldstandard empfohlen. Nur damit lassen sich valide Aussagen zur tatsächlichen Inanspruchnahme medizinischer Leistungen treffen. Das einreichungsorientierte Verfahren kann hingegen für Trendanalysen genutzt werden, sofern der systematische Bias bekannt ist und konstant bleibt. *Eine ungleichmäßige Verteilung der Einreichungen über das Jahr stellt eine Herausforderung für ein zeitnahes unterjähriges Monitoring dar. Erforderlich sind daher Verfahren zur Abschätzung der Verzerrungen und/oder die Entwicklung adjustierter Forecasting-Modelle. *Selbstbehalte können zu einer Unterrepräsentation bestimmter (günstiger) Leistungen führen. Weitere Forschung ist notwendig, etwa durch Abgleich mit Primärdaten oder Sensitivitätsanalysen. *Jede PKV-Datenanalyse sollte das Verfahren der Datenauswahl transparent dokumentieren (Abfragezeitpunkt, Erfassungszeiträume, Einreichungsfenster), um Nachvollziehbarkeit und Vergleichbarkeit sicherzustellen. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wipana:330335 |
| By: | Chun Chet Ng; Wei Zeng Low; Yin Yin Boon |
| Abstract: | Despite accounting for 96.1% of all businesses in Malaysia, access to financing remains one of the most persistent challenges faced by Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Newly established or young businesses are often excluded from formal credit markets as traditional underwriting approaches rely heavily on credit bureau data. This study investigates the potential of bank statement data as an alternative data source for credit assessment to promote financial inclusion in emerging markets. Firstly, we propose a cash flow-based underwriting pipeline where we utilise bank statement data for end to end data extraction and machine learning credit scoring. Secondly, we introduce a novel dataset of 611 loan applicants from a Malaysian lending institution. Thirdly, we develop and evaluate credit scoring models based on application information and bank transaction-derived features. Empirical results show that the use of such data boosts the performance of all models on our dataset, which can improve credit scoring for new-to-lending MSMEs. Lastly, we intend to release the anonymised bank transaction dataset to facilitate further research on MSMEs financial inclusion within Malaysia's emerging economy. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.16066 |
| By: | Charidimos Papadakis; Angeliki Dimitriou; Giorgos Filandrianos; Maria Lymperaiou; Konstantinos Thomas; Giorgos Stamou |
| Abstract: | Large language models show promise for financial decision-making, yet deploying them as autonomous trading agents raises fundamental challenges: how to adapt instructions when rewards arrive late and obscured by market noise, how to synthesize heterogeneous information streams into coherent decisions, and how to bridge the gap between model outputs and executable market actions. We present ATLAS (Adaptive Trading with LLM AgentS), a unified multi-agent framework that integrates structured information from markets, news, and corporate fundamentals to support robust trading decisions. Within ATLAS, the central trading agent operates in an order-aware action space, ensuring that outputs correspond to executable market orders rather than abstract signals. The agent can incorporate feedback while trading using Adaptive-OPRO, a novel prompt-optimization technique that dynamically adapts the prompt by incorporating real-time, stochastic feedback, leading to increasing performance over time. Across regime-specific equity studies and multiple LLM families, Adaptive-OPRO consistently outperforms fixed prompts, while reflection-based feedback fails to provide systematic gains. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.15949 |
| By: | Kenneth T. Gillingham; Matthew Kotchen; James A. Levinsohn; Barry J. Nalebuff |
| Abstract: | We study how Elon Musk's polarizing and partisan actions have impacted Tesla vehicle sales in the United States. Using county-level, monthly data on new vehicle registrations, we leverage how changes in vehicle sales over time diverge across counties with differing shares of Democratic and Republican voters. Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles. Musk’s partisan activities also increased the sales of other automakers' electric and hybrid vehicles 17-22% because of substitution, and undermined California’s progress in meeting its zero-emissions vehicle target. |
| JEL: | G3 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34413 |
| By: | ARAWATARI, Ryo; TAKAHASHI, Yuta; TAKAYAMA, Naoki |
| Abstract: | After the boom-bust cycle, Japan experienced a marked slowdown in economic growth since 1990. Three features stand out: (1) a persistent decline in total factor productivity growth, (2) a sharp and lasting fall in private investment, and (3) an extended period of exceptionally low interest rates. This study develops a macro-finance model designed to account for these interconnected phenomena. The framework emphasizes the role of shifting expectations, risk-premium, and the interaction between financial conditions and real activity. By grounding the analysis in the Japanese experience, the model aims to explain not only the mechanisms behind the bubble’s rise and fall but also the persistence of the stagnation that followed. The broader goal is to clarify how financial booms and busts can leave long-lived imprints on growth trajectories, offering lessons for economies facing similar vulnerabilities today. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:773 |
| By: | Vicente Pinilla (1Department of Applied Economics, Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2)); Silvia Abella (2Department of Business Administration, Universidad de Zaragoza); Juan Ramón Ferrer (3Department of Agricultural Economics, Statistics and Business Administration, Universidad Polite?cnica de Madrid); Raúl Serrano (4Department of Business Administration, Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2)) |
| Abstract: | This article analyses the trajectory of Spanish wine exports, explaining, first, their historical background and then their dynamics in recent decades within a highly globalised market. Subsequently, it describes the macro factors that explain the high growth of these exports, such as the incorporation of technological innovations, access to the European Union, the expansion of the protected designation of origin and the reinforcement of their quality control and the fall in wine consumption in Spain. Finally, the business strategies that have largely fostered the export boom are analysed. |
| Keywords: | Global Wine Markets, Spanish Wine Exports, Wine Firms, Wine Export Strategies |
| JEL: | F14 N54 N74 Q17 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zar:wpaper:dt2025-02 |
| By: | Moubarek Amine Berdaa (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Taoufiq Yahyaoui (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Jalal Ktit (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Tahraoui Btissam (ENCG - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion - UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | Denne undersøgelse giver en dybdegående analyse af de rumligt og tidsmæssigt heterogene effekter af human kapital på den regionale økonomiske vækst i Marokko i perioden 2011–2021. Med udgangspunkt i rammen for Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) indfanger analysen lokaliserede variationer i human kapitalens indflydelse – målt ved uddannelses- og sundhedsindikatorer – på den regionale BNP-vækst. Resultaterne afslører markante rumlige og tidsmæssige forskelle, hvilket bekræfter forholdets ikke-stationære karakter og understreger den afgørende rolle, som territoriale dynamikker spiller i udformningen af den regionale økonomiske performance. Ved at tilbyde ny empirisk evidens om den marokkanske regionale økonomi fremhæver denne forskning den analytiske relevans af ikke-stationære tilgange i vurderingen af udviklingsafkastet af human kapital og giver værdifuld indsigt til en evidensbaseret regionalpolitisk beslutningstagning. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie liefert eine vertiefte Untersuchung der räumlich und zeitlich heterogenen Effekte des Humankapitals auf das regionale Wirtschaftswachstum in Marokko im Zeitraum 2011–2021. Auf der Grundlage des Rahmens der Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) erfasst die Analyse lokalisierte Variationen im Einfluss des Humankapitals – gemessen anhand von Bildungs- und Gesundheitsindikatoren – auf das regionale BIP-Wachstum. Die Ergebnisse zeigen ausgeprägte räumliche und zeitliche Disparitäten, was die nicht-stationäre Natur dieser Beziehung bestätigt und die zentrale Rolle territorialer Dynamiken bei der Gestaltung der regionalen Wirtschaftsleistung hervorhebt. Durch die Bereitstellung neuer empirischer Evidenz zur marokkanischen Regionalökonomie unterstreicht diese Forschung die analytische Relevanz nicht-stationärer Ansätze bei der Bewertung der Entwicklungsrenditen von Humankapital und liefert wertvolle Erkenntnisse für eine evidenzbasierte Regionalpolitik. |
| Abstract: | This study provides an in-depth investigation of the spatially and temporally heterogeneous effects of human capital on regional economic growth in Morocco over the period 2011–2021. Drawing on the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) framework, the analysis captures localized variations in the influence of human capital—proxied by education and health indicators—on regional GDP growth. The results reveal pronounced spatial and temporal disparities, confirming the non-stationary nature of this relationship and emphasizing the pivotal role of territorial dynamics in shaping regional economic performance. By offering novel empirical evidence on the Moroccan regional economy, this research underscores the analytical relevance of non-stationary approaches in assessing the developmental returns of human capital and provides valuable insights for evidence-based regional policy-making. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude examine l'effet spatialement et temporellement variable du capital humain sur la croissance économique régionale au Maroc durant la période 2011-2021. En mobilisant la régression géographiquement et temporellement pondérée (GTWR), nous analysons les hétérogénéités locales dans l'impact du capital humain, mesuré par des indicateurs éducatifs et de santé, sur la croissance du PIB régional. Les résultats révèlent une forte variation spatiale de cet impact, confirmant le caractère non stationnaire de la relation et l'importance des dynamiques territoriales. Ce travail apporte un éclairage empirique nouveau sur l'économie régionale marocaine et souligne la pertinence des approches non stationnaires pour analyser les effets du développement humain. |
| Keywords: | Spatial econometrics, GTWR, Economic growth, Human capital, économétrie spatiale, Croissance économique régionale, Capital humain |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05271365 |
| By: | Alejandro Esteller-Moré; José María Durán-Cabré; Christos Kotsogiannis; Luca Salvadori |
| Abstract: | Enforcing wealth tax compliance among high-net-worth individuals is particularly challenging. Using administrative data on the Net Wealth Tax for Catalan taxpayers over the 2011–2020 period, this paper evaluates the impact of audits on voluntary compliance. The evidence suggests that wealth tax audits do enhance compliance, but the impact is short-lived — and driven by taxpayers rebalancing their tax evasion and avoidance responses. On the institutional side, the results indicate that Spain's overlapping tax audit mandates can create coordination frictions that reduce the efficiency and effectiveness of audit-based enforcement of the New Wealth Tax. Effective enforcement depends not only on robust audit strategies, but also on coherent institutional design and sound tax policy. |
| Keywords: | overlapping tax audit mandates, tax audit evaluation, tax compliance, Tax evasion, wealth tax |
| JEL: | H26 D31 O17 D02 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1527 |
| By: | Soumya Bhadury; Bhanu Pratap; Jay Surti |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the dynamic linkages between financial conditions and economic growth across 18 major emerging market economies over the last two decades and the role that fiscal and trade balances play in shaping such associations. Using a reduced-form multivariate autoregressive state-space model, we document two opposing forces – growth-enhancing and growth-inhibiting linkages – that characterize macro-financial dynamics in these countries. Easing of domestic financial conditions is associated with stronger near-term GDP growth, a growth-enhancing link, albeit this acceleration in growth is followed by a tightening of financial conditions that can adversely impact future growth outcomes, a growth-inhibiting link. Both linkages are statistically significant at high frequencies for nearly half of the countries in our sample and appear to be driven by a weak twin-balance sheets condition of high public debt and external imbalances. External factors, notably the global financial cycle, are shown to play a crucial role in amplifying this feedback loop between economic growth and financial conditions. |
| Keywords: | Macro-financial linkages; emerging markets; twin-deficits; financial conditions; MARSS model; Kalman filter |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/216 |
| By: | Diana Barro (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Antonella Basso (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Marco Corazza (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Guglielmo Alessandro Visentin (Henley Business School, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | We propose a hybrid approach that combines Neural Networks with a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to generate long-term forecasts of time series. We apply this methodology to forecast the impact of shifts in monetary policies within the Euro area on a comprehensive set of macroeconomic variables. Our analysis begins with a standard (linear) VAR model, which is then enhanced by incorporating Neural Networks to generate long-term forecasts for key variables such as the interest rate, inflation, real output, narrow money, exchange rate, and corporate bond spread. The results suggest that a Neural Network-VAR model offers improvements over the traditional linear VAR for forecasting certain macroeconomic variables in the long run. However, due to the limited sample size, the nonlinear model does not consistently outperform the linear VAR. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting; VAR; Neural Networks; Monetary policies; Euro area |
| JEL: | C32 C45 C53 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:24 |
| By: | Dotti, Nicola Francesco (Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, European Commission); Canton, Erik (Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, European Commission); Benoit, Florence (Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, European Commission); Cavicchi, Bianca (Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, European Commission); Di Girolamo, Valentina (Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, European Commission); Ravet, Julien (Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, European Commission); Steeman, Jan-Tjibbe (Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, European Commission) |
| Abstract: | This literature review provides short summaries of recent scientific articles discussing the challenges of 'greening research'. While science has played a fundamental role in understanding climate change, today's most pressing societal challenge, research organisations and activities are also called to 'greening' themselves, reducing their environmental footprint and promoting more sustainable practices. This multifaceted challenge is addressed by an emerging literature identifying the carbon footprint of university campuses and research infrastructure, discussing the main challenges such as research-related travelling. This review aims to discuss the emerging practices contributing to promoting environmental sustainability for research activities. |
| Keywords: | Greening research, decarbonisation, sustainability, climate change, research organisations |
| JEL: | Q56 Q58 O32 O38 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eug:wpaper:ki-01-25-022-en-n |
| By: | Centorrino, Samuele; Diakantoni, Antonia; Keck, Alexander; Ruta, Michele; Sztajerowska, Monika; Wei, Yuting |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, a novel indicator measuring evolving global trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis. Using a Dynamic Factor Model on comprehensive trade policy data covering 197 countries and territories, we document a structural shift around 2019 with a substantial expansion in the use of trade policies. The TPA Index also identifies cyclical episodes of heightened activity and reveals interconnections between different types of measures. We are also able to identify systematic differences in trade policy deployment among groups of economies. Additionally, we employ MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions with high-frequency data to develop nowcasting capabilities for trade policy activity, enabling realtime identification of potential policy shifts. These results contribute to the trade policy measurement literature and offer a tool for monitoring global trade policy developments in real time. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy, Dynamic factor models, Nowcasting |
| JEL: | F13 C32 C38 C53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:330318 |
| By: | Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.; Casas, Lyle Daryll D.; Hagag, Sarah Reem Hesham Mohamed; Ho, Frances Dominique V.; Medina, Rizel; Rodriguez, Henrietta Marie |
| Abstract: | In the Philippines, hospital efficiency and quality are rarely assessed due to the limited availability of administrative health data. An analysis of 37 million inpatient claims from PhilHealth (2018–2023) estimated hospital efficiency and quality nationwide. Findings revealed significant variations in efficiency based on hospital ownership, service capacity, and regional differences. Descriptive cost-efficiency indicators showed differences of 2 to 5 times, even after adjusting for case complexity. The stochastic frontier analysis revealed notable production inefficiencies, with public and private hospitals operating at efficiency levels ranging from 50 percent to 80 percent. This indicates potential underutilized capacity and opportunities for improvement, particularly in increasing the number of PhilHealth-covered admissions in private hospitals. Approximately 5 percent of PhilHealth claimants account for about 25 percent of total inpatient reimbursements by the Corporation, highlighting significant concerns regarding equity and efficiency. This pattern suggests that a small subset of patients, often those with complex or chronic conditions (i.e., noncommunicable diseases), disproportionately consume resources, potentially limiting coverage for the broader population's needs. In terms of quality, a modest level of readmissions, avoidable admissions, and hospital-acquired complications was observed, with variations depending on hospital type and service capacity. Admissions for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions constitute roughly 30 percent of all admissions, a relatively high share that points to policy and programmatic gaps in hospital efficiency, primary healthcare, and the effectiveness of ambulatory care in hospitals. This report demonstrates the feasibility of using health insurance claims data to measure variations in hospital performance, particularly as the sector shifts toward value-based provider payment systems. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | universal health care;PhilHealth;hospital efficiency;inpatient;quality of care;high-cost users;readmissions;ambulatory care sensitive conditions;equity |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-30 |
| By: | Feng Hou; Garnett Picot |
| Abstract: | Since the early 2000s, the two-step immigration selection process, through which economic immigrants are chosen from the pool of temporary foreign workers, has expanded rapidly. Previous research indicated that following their landing, high-skilled two-step immigrants had higher earnings than comparable one-step immigrants—those directly selected from abroad. However, an important question that has not been fully examined is whether the earnings advantage of two-step immigrants over one-step immigrants persisted if the two groups were compared from their arrival year rather than the year when they became permanent residents. At that point, neither group possessed any Canadian work experience, eliminating its potential influence on their earnings differences. The results of this study reveal that two-step immigrants consistently had higher annual earnings than their one-step counterparts within the same admission class when the comparison started from their initial arrival year. These earnings differences, although reduced, remained substantial after accounting for sociodemographic differences between the two groups and after 10 years following the initial arrival. Furthermore, these patterns generally held across successive arrival cohorts. The conclusion includes a discussion of the implications of these findings and explores potential reasons for these outcomes. |
| Keywords: | two-step immigration selection, immigrants, Canadian work experience, earnings |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400100006e |
| By: | Toyo A. M. Dossou (Cotonou, Benin); Dossou K. Pascal (Cotonou, Benin); Emmanuelle N. Kambaye (Chengdu, China); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Alastaire S. Alinsato (Cotonou, Benin) |
| Abstract: | Although the impact of financial development on renewable energy consumption has been extensively examined in recent years, the study regarding the moderation of governance quality on the financial development on renewable energy consumption nexus is sparse. By filling the gap in the energy economics literature, this study investigates the moderating effect of governance quality on the relationship between financial development on renewable energy consumption for a panel of 33 African countries over the period 2000-2020. The fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) estimation techniques has been used to account for the cointegration and cross-sectional dependence, respectively. The results unveil that the impact of governance quality and financial development on renewable energy consumption is negative and statistically significant. Moreover, the results reveal that the FD-governance quality interactions are significant and negative. Governance quality thresholds at which the negative incidence of financial development on renewable energy consumption is completely nullified are 0.825; 2.15; 2.86; 3.52;3.36; and 0, 1, respectively |
| Keywords: | Financial development, renewable energy consumption, governance quality, Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/011 |
| By: | Amélie Lafrance-Cooke; Danny Leung |
| Abstract: | Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, it was shown that there were fewer new firms in 2020 and that these new firms were smaller than previous entrants. It would be problematic if the situation continued into 2021 and 2022 because new firms are seen as important conduits of innovation and economic renewal. This is particularly pertinent in the current context of weak productivity growth. This article finds that despite starting smaller in employment size and being fewer in number, the entrants in 2020 carried less debt, had more liquidity, were more profitable and were more productive in their year of entry than previous entry cohorts. In addition, perhaps as a result of these characteristics, the 2020 entry cohort, who could not qualify for COVID-19 support programs, had higher survival rates in the first two years of their existence compared with previous cohorts in the same point in their lifecycle and were able to catch up in average employment size in their second year after entry. Furthermore, the rate of entry and the average size of entrants in 2021 and 2022 have mostly recovered to their pre-pandemic levels. The characteristics of the 2021 entrants are also closer to those of 2020 entrants than to those of entrants in the pre-pandemic years. This suggests that weak firm entry or weak entrants are likely not the source of the current lack of productivity growth in the Canadian economy. However, more conclusive evidence will be available when more recent microdata become available. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, new businesses, new firms, debt, liquidity, economic activity |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400600003e |
| By: | Christoph Schimmele; Sung-Hee Jeon; Rubab Arim |
| Abstract: | Work arrangements changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, as organizations switched to working from home on a large scale and used digital technologies to adapt to physical distancing mandates (Deng et al., 2020; Fuentes & Lindsay, 2023). About 20% of all employed Canadians aged 15 to 69 years were working primarily from home near the end of 2023, an increase from 7% shortly before physical distancing measures began in March 2020 (Morissette, 2024). It is largely unknown how changes to work arrangements since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic have impacted persons with disabilities (PWDs) in Canada. |
| Keywords: | workplace accommodations, disabilities, COVID-19, work arrangements |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400800004e |
| By: | Flora C. Shi; Martin J. Wainwright; Stephen Bates |
| Abstract: | We study hypothesis testing over a heterogeneous population of strategic agents with private information. Any single test applied uniformly across the population yields statistical error that is sub-optimal relative to the performance of an oracle given access to the private information. We show how it is possible to design menus of statistical contracts that pair type-optimal tests with payoff structures, inducing agents to self-select according to their private information. This separating menu elicits agent types and enables the principal to match the oracle performance even without a priori knowledge of the agent type. Our main result fully characterizes the collection of all separating menus that are instance-adaptive, matching oracle performance for an arbitrary population of heterogeneous agents. We identify designs where information elicitation is essentially costless, requiring negligible additional expense relative to a single-test benchmark, while improving statistical performance. Our work establishes a connection between proper scoring rules and menu design, showing how the structure of the hypothesis test constrains the elicitable information. Numerical examples illustrate the geometry of separating menus and the improvements they deliver in error trade-offs. Overall, our results connect statistical decision theory with mechanism design, demonstrating how heterogeneity and strategic participation can be harnessed to improve efficiency in hypothesis testing. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.21178 |
| By: | L\'aszl\'o Csat\'o; D\'ora Gr\'eta Petr\'oczy |
| Abstract: | Penalty shootouts play an important role in the knockout stage of major football tournaments, especially since the 2021/22 season, when the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) scrapped the away goals rule in its club competitions. Inspired by this rule change, our paper examines whether the outcome of a penalty shootout can be predicted in UEFA club competitions. Based on all shootouts between 2000 and 2025, we find no evidence for the effect of the kicking order, the field of the match, or psychological momentum. In contrast to previous results, stronger teams, defined first by Elo ratings, do not perform better than their weaker opponents. Consequently, penalty shootouts are equivalent to a perfect lottery in top European football. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.17641 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Emrehan Aktuğ; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | We conducted a survey of Turkish firms, using randomized treatments to provide varied information about inflation in a high-inflation environment. By matching the survey data with administrative firm-level data on employment, sales, credit, and foreign exchange transactions, we explore the impact of exogenous variations in inflation expectations on firms' behavior, borrowing decisions, and expectations. Our findings are summarized in seven facts: (i) information treatments are effective at generating exogenous variation in inflation expectations, even when inflation is high; (ii) the pass-through to firms' own price, wage, and cost expectations is strong, reaching up to 60%; (iii) firms adopt a supply-side interpretation of inflation—lower inflation expectations make them more optimistic; (iv) firms with lower inflation expectations decrease credit demand by approximately 3% for a 1 percentage point decline in expected inflation, shifting from long-term to short-term loans to avoid higher perceived costs; (v) they dollarize their liabilities by increasing their share of FX-denominated debt; (vi) they de-dollarize their assets by decreasing their net foreign currency holdings; and (vii) they increase their real activity, leading to higher employment and sales, and lower inventory. |
| Keywords: | expectations, firms, RCT, high inflation, macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12210 |
| By: | Lo, Ashley Wan-Tzu; Kono, Tatsuhito |
| Abstract: | We examine how residential and work locations affect gender differences in time-use burden among homogeneous couples. We theoretically derive gendered values of time (VOTs) by location in spatial equilibrium. We show that (i) changes in VOT according to residential and work locations are determined by shadow prices of time and budget, (ii) households residing closer to the CBD have higher VOTs, and (iii) housework division varies by location, and VOTs differ between spouses spatially. Simulations substantiate these findings. Furthermore, our stated preference experiment confirms that VOT varies with residential location, after controlling for gender and household characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Gender difference, Value of time, Time allocation, Housework, Residential location, Homogeneous households |
| JEL: | D10 R20 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126319 |
| By: | Manyane Kpatoumbi Kankpe (Université Jean Monnet, Université Lyon 2, emlyon, GATE, CNRS, 42100, Saint Etienne) |
| Abstract: | Abstract: This study examines the impact of design activities on innovation and identifies the main determinants influencing firms’ investment in design. We use a cross-sectional database built from three sources: the French Community Innovation Survey (CIS) 2018, the Annual Declaration of Social Data (DADS), and the structural business statistics (FARE) for the period 2015–2017. By adopting an instrumental variable (IV) approach that accounts for the endogeneity of design, our results provide clear evidence that integrating design significantly increases the likelihood of innovation. A doubling of the number of designers within a firm more than doubles the probability of innovating in product or process. This impact of design is greater than that of R&D or marketing, indicating its central role in the innovation process. However, failing to consider the endogeneity of design leads to an underestimation of its true effect. Similarly, our results confirm the endogeneity of R&D, as demonstrated by Crépon et al. (1998), and ignoring this dimension also results in an underestimation of its impact on innovation. Regarding the determinants of design, we find that the concentration of designers within a sector and a region, public financial support, and export intensity foster its adoption. By introducing a time lag between innovation activities and their outcomes, certain limitations of cross-sectional studies—particularly simultaneity bias—are overcome, despite the use of the IV approach. |
| Keywords: | Design, Innovation, R&D, Marketing, Endogeneity |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2521 |
| By: | Hazell, Peter B. R.; Place, Frank |
| Abstract: | As the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) marks its 50th anniversary, the Institute and its key stakeholders pause to take stock of what is known about its policy influence and impact over the years. What does the available evidence tell us about IFPRI’s achievements as an international research institution? Have its activities contributed to better policy and investment decisions by governments, development agencies, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, and others involved in the economic and social development of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)? This report builds on a stocktaking paper published for IFPRI’s 40th anniversary, whose findings were generally favorable, by using more recent external sources of evidence to provide updated answers to these questions. It synthesizes bibliometric and download data, as well as a series of independently conducted impact assessment studies of many of IFPRI’s research programs and projects. This task has been facilitated by the availability of 40 such evaluations, commissioned by IFPRI, the CGIAR Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health and on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, or project donors. Additionally, other agencies commissioned several evaluations of specific country and regional policies that IFPRI helped influence. This wealth of independent assessments is rare for a policy research institution. Moreover, IFPRI’s commissioning or co-commissioning of 36 impact assessments over 25 years demonstrates a serious commitment to an impact evaluation culture and a willingness to learn from its experiences. |
| Keywords: | impact assessment; hunger; policy analysis; poverty; research |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:impass:177103 |
| By: | Sun, Yiyang |
| Abstract: | Yang, drawing on his inframarginal economics framework, argued that China's dual-track reforms would fail without constitutional shock therapy, predicting that the absence of proper institutional transitions would lead to corruption and economic stagnation. Conversely, Lin's New Structural Economics advocated for gradual reform based on comparative advantages, arguing that late-comers could benefit by developing industries aligned with their factor endowments. This essay examines the 2002 to 2003 debate between economists Justin Yifu Lin and Xiaokai Yang regarding China's economic reforms and late-comer advantages. Through an analysis of recent empirical evidence (2020-2025), this essay demonstrates that Yang's predictions largely failed to materialize: China's dual-track system succeeded despite lacking constitutional transformation, with state-owned enterprises contributing positively to growth and anti-corruption campaigns improving productivity. However, Lin's framework also proves insufficient in explaining China's success. The paper concludes that economic forecasting necessarily sacrifices scientific rigor in favor of broad generalizations, suggesting that economics should focus on explaining existing phenomena rather than predicting uncertain futures. |
| Keywords: | later-comer advantage/disadvantage; constitutional transition; Chinese economy; dual-track reforms; empirical revolution |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129935 |
| By: | Abdellah Moussaoui (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Hafsa Lemsieh (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Esskalli Khalid (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | Today, digitalization is an essential strategic lever for transforming organizational practices and business models. This article proposes an in-depth theoretical analysis of the impact of digital technologies on organizational performance, based on a systematic, multidimensional review of the academic literature. The results highlight four major dimensions through which digitalization positively influences performance: the acceleration of decision-making processes via real-time data analysis, the optimization of productivity thanks to automation, the significant improvement of the customer experience through increased personalization, and a significant reduction in operating costs.Nevertheless, this digital transformation also presents complex challenges, such as high initial technology integration costs, the emergence of increased dependency on digital technologies and disparities in internal digital skills. To meet these challenges, the article stresses the importance of effective digital governance coupled with proactive strategic management.Finally, this research introduces an integrated approach to assessing organizational performance in a digital context, including relevant indicators such as financial performance, operational efficiency, innovation capacity, customer satisfaction, internal collaboration and environmental impact. This perspective enables companies to thoroughly and consistently assess their current performance, while strengthening their adaptability and long-term competitiveness |
| Abstract: | Aujourd'hui, la digitalisation constitue un levier stratégique essentiel pour transformer les pratiques organisationnelles et les modèles d'affaires. Cet article propose une analyse théorique approfondie de l'impact des technologies digitales sur la performance organisationnelle, fondée sur une revue systématique et multidimensionnelle de la littérature académique. Les résultats mettent en évidence quatre dimensions majeures par lesquelles la digitalisation influence positivement la performance : l'accélération des processus décisionnels grâce à l'analyse de données en temps réel, l'optimisation de la productivité via l'automatisation, l'amélioration significative de l'expérience client par une personnalisation accrue, ainsi qu'une réduction notable des coûts opérationnels. Néanmoins, cette transformation digitale présente également des défis complexes, tels que les coûts initiaux élevés d'intégration technologique, l'émergence d'une dépendance accrue aux technologies digitales et les disparités en matière de compétences digitales internes. Pour relever ces défis, l'article souligne l'importance d'une gouvernance digitale efficace, associée à un management stratégique proactif. Enfin, cette recherche introduit une approche intégrée d'évaluation de la performance organisationnelle dans un contexte digital, incluant des indicateurs pertinents tels que la performance financière, l'efficacité opérationnelle, la capacité d'innovation, la satisfaction client, la collaboration interne et l'impact environnemental. Cette perspective permet aux entreprises d'évaluer leur performance de manière approfondie et cohérente, tout en renforçant leur adaptabilité et leur compétitivité à long terme. |
| Keywords: | Organizational performance Digitalization Digital transformation Performance indicators Competitiveness, Organizational performance, Digitalization, Digital transformation, Performance indicators, Competitiveness |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05270688 |
| By: | Dalaman, Burak (University of London); Kalay, Ali Furkan (Macquarie University, Sydney); Kettlewell, Nathan (University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Large language models (LLMs) have altered the nature of academic writing. While the influence of LLMs on academic writing is not uncontroversial, one promise for this technology is to bridge language barriers faced by nonnative English-speaking researchers. This study empirically demonstrates that LLMs have led to convergence in the lexical diversity of native and nonnative speakers, potentially helping to level the playing field. There has also been an increase in language complexity for nonnatives. We classify over one million authors as native or nonnative English speakers based on the etymological origins of their names and analyze over one million abstracts from arXiv.org, evaluating changes in lexical diversity and readability before and after ChatGPT’s release in November 2022. The results demonstrate a sharp increase in writing sophistication among all researchers, with nonnative English speakers showing the greatest gains across all writing metrics. Our findings provide empirical evidence on the impact of LLMs in academic writing, supporting recent speculations about their potential to bridge language barriers. |
| Keywords: | technology adoption, large language models, academic equity, generative AI, language barrier, bayesian structural time series |
| JEL: | J24 I23 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18215 |
| By: | Max Stick; Allison Leanage; Rubab Arim |
| Abstract: | This study explores a socioeconomic profile of working-age immigrants (aged 25 to 64) in same-sex couples from 2000 to 2020 using the Longitudinal Immigration Database. The study addresses three research questions: (1) how has the number of working-age immigrants in same-sex couples shifted since the nationwide legalization of same-sex marriage in Canada in 2005, (2) what is the geographic distribution of working-age immigrants in same-sex couples and (3) how does the economic profile (employment incidence and median employment income) of working-age immigrants in same-sex couples compare with that of working-age immigrants in opposite-sex couples? Results revealed that the number of male and female working-age immigrants in same-sex couples increased in Canada from 2000 to 2020. Previously, most working-age immigrants in same-sex couples tended to reside in the Toronto, Vancouver and Montréal census metropolitan areas (CMAs), but in recent years, there has been a greater dispersal towards smaller CMAs and rural areas in Canada. Finally, across most years, male and female working-age immigrants in same-sex couples had higher rates of employment incidence and median employment incomes than their counterparts in opposite-sex couples. This pattern of results largely remained the same after considering group differences in several sociodemographic characteristics. However, male working-age immigrants in same-sex couples had lower employment income than their counterparts with similar sociodemographic characteristics in opposite-sex couples. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, same-sex couples, employment, income |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400600005e |
| By: | Ashutosh Yadav (Patna, India); Bright Akwasi Gyamfi (Udaipur, India); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Deepak Kumar Behera (Patna, India) |
| Abstract: | In the context of sustainable development, this study investigates the intricate dynamics among good governance, renewable energy investment, and green finance in BRICS nations. The aim of the study is to assess how green finance and governance effectiveness moderate the impact of renewable energy investment on CO2 emissions. Utilizing the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model, a meticulous analysis spanning two decades was conducted to unravel the relationships among key variables and CO2 emissions. The findings underscore a nuanced interplay where renewable energy investments, synergized with robust governance and strategic green finance, significantly mitigate CO2 emissions, contributing to sustainable economic development. However, the study reveals non-linear relationships, highlighting the necessity for optimal allocation and strategic planning to maximize environmental benefits. In the short-run, a government effectiveness policy threshold that should be attained in order for renewable energy investment to reduce CO2 emissions is provided. In the long-run, the negative responsiveness of CO2 emissions to renewable energy investment is further consolidated by green finance. Moreover, enhancing renewable energy investment in the long run is positive for environmental sustainability. It follows that policy makers should tailor policies aimed at enhancing renewable energy investment in the long-run as well as complementing renewable energy investment with green finance in the long-run in order to ensure environmental sustainability by means of reducing CO2 emissions. Policymakers in BRICS nations are urged to strengthen governance structures, promote renewable energy investments, leverage green finance, foster public-private partnerships, adopt a holistic approach, and address non-linear effects to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Development, Governance, Renewable Energy Investment, BRICS and CS-ARDL |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/014 |
| By: | Andreea Mitrut; Gabriel Kreindler; Margareta Matache; Andrei Munteanu; Cristian Pop-Eleches |
| Abstract: | How does ethnic identification vary with education among disadvantaged minorities? We study this question for Roma people, Europe's largest ethnic minority, using linked Romanian census data and birth records. We measure how individuals change reported ethnicity over time, or “pass.” Roma identification strongly declines with education, from 80% for those with no education to 40% for postsecondary graduates. We estimate a model with persistent individual heterogeneity and find 3-6 times more Roma postsecondary graduates than in official data. Survey data we collect shows that most Romanians are unaware of these patterns. Such selective passing may reinforce stereotypes about marginalized groups. |
| JEL: | I21 I25 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34383 |
| By: | Jonathan H. Cantor; Jill Horwitz; Christopher M. Whaley; Anthony Yu |
| Abstract: | Certificate of Need (CON) laws regulate entry and capital investments in healthcare with the goal of containing costs while preserving access and quality. This paper examines the relationship between these laws and overall mortality as well as leading causes of mortality: cancer and cardiovascular disease. Using county-level death records, we conducted an event-study analysis comparing mortality rates in states that repealed their CON laws to states that did not between 1979 and 2004. The repeal of CON laws was associated with short-run reductions in cancer mortality, primarily from reductions in lung cancer mortality. Cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality rates were unchanged. |
| JEL: | I0 I1 I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34403 |
| By: | Arturo Huerta G. |
| Abstract: | The article analyzes why exchange rate stability has been prioritized in Mexico and why the national currency has appreciated; which policies and factors have made this possible, the costs and consequences of the strong peso, and its sustainability and temporality are also examined. Mexico's economy does not have the endogenous conditions necessary to maintain such a strong currency--which has relied on the inflow of capital, thus exposing the economy to high vulnerability vis-a-vis the behavior of capital flows. The exchange rate stability has been very costly, due to the fact that there is no longer an economic policy in favor of growth; furthermore, the entry of capital leads to continuous productive imbalances which are behind the external deficit. In essence, Mexico has fallen into the Ponzi effect, whereby debt covers the deficit and pays off debt. This article posits that an effective, flexible exchange rate should be used to lower the interest rate and increase public spending in favor of growth and employment, and that economic policy should aim to encourage import substitution and increase the domestic value added of exports in order to reduce the external deficit and capital inflow requirements. This should be accompanied by regulating the movement of goods and capital to avoid speculation and protect domestic production from imports, in turn allowing for a more flexible economic policy in favor of the productive sector and employment. Lastly, the article proposes that the economy should be financed with its own currency to boost growth potential and reduce the foreign trade deficit in order to avoid relying on external financing. |
| Keywords: | Government and the Monetary System; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development; Policy Designs and Consistency; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Foreign Exchange Policy; Factor Movement Policy |
| JEL: | E42 E43 E44 E63 O23 O24 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1075 |
| By: | David Bruns-Smith; Emi Nakamura; Jón Steinsson |
| Abstract: | A canonical finding from earlier research is that the cross-sectional variance of income increases sharply with age Deaton and Paxson (1994). However, the trend in this age profile is not separately identified from time and cohort trends. Conventional methods solve this identification problem by ruling out "time effects." This strong assumption is rejected by the data. We propose a new proxy variable machine learning approach to disentangle age, time and cohort effects. Using this method, we estimate a significantly smaller slope of the age profile of income variance for the US than conventional methods, as well as less erratic slopes for 11 other countries. |
| JEL: | E20 J20 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34380 |
| By: | Yuqian Lu; Garnett Picot |
| Abstract: | Temporary residents constitute an important supply of labour for the Canadian economy. However, some of them do not work in a given year, even when holding a valid work permit (Lu & Hou, 2023a, 2023b). Of those who are employed, some work part time or part year because of program restrictions, permit length or other reasons. As a result, a simple headcount of employed temporary residents overestimates their impact on the labour force and their contribution to the Canadian economy. |
| Keywords: | Foreign workers, temporary residents, paid employment, labour, Canadian economy |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400300005e |
| By: | Ivan Yotzov; Boromeus Wanengkirtyo; Mishel Ghassibe |
| Abstract: | Forward-looking pricing is at the core of modern macroeconomics, yet a gap remains between its theoretical foundations and their empirical validation. To bridge this gap, we study intertemporal pass-through (iPT): the sensitivity of firms' desired prices to changes in their expected future marginal costs, a micro building block of foresight in aggregate inflation. On the empirical side, we obtain direct iPT estimates by combining UK firm-level survey data with idiosyncratic news shocks from a natural experiment: the March 2019 announcement of a future tariff schedule in the event of a "No-Deal" Brexit. We find iPT to be largest among firms with the lowest frequency of price adjustment and those expecting the cost shock to arrive earlier. In addition, iPT is smaller among firms with state-dependent pricing and for larger shocks. On the theory side, we derive iPT in a model with heterogeneous adjustment frequencies and perceived shock horizons, formally reconciling our empirical findings on the drivers of iPT differences. We also use our setup to assess the general equilibrium consequences of iPT heterogeneity. In particular, we show that the sensitivity of aggregate inflation to changes in future costs is convex in non-adjustment frequencies and perceived shock horizons. As a result, iPT heterogeneity amplifies the degree of forward-lookingness of macroeconomic aggregates. Thus, announcements of future policies have contemporaneous effects, and heterogeneity in pricing decisions increase their magnitude. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, expectations, price-setting, survey data, tariffs |
| JEL: | C83 D25 D84 E31 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1524 |
| By: | Xiao, Leon Y. (IT University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Background: Playing video games is a popular activity globally across age groups. Concerns have been raised about potentially problematic engagement both in terms of spending too much time (‘gaming disorder’ as defined by the World Health Organization) and money, including on gambling-like in-game purchases, such as loot boxes. Giving games different advisory age ratings based on their potentially problematic content and advising consumers and parents as to what age group the game is suitable for is a non-restrictive policy approach that is widely adopted internationally. In contrast, aiming to address ‘internet addiction’ and ‘excessive monetary spending, ’ East Asian countries have adopted (and in the South Korean case since repealed) stricter legal restrictions on how long and when young people can play video games for and how much money they are permitted to spend. These restrictions are enforced by software means through age assurance and identity verification procedures. A prominent example is how Mainland China restricts under-18s from playing online games except for one hour only between 8–9 PM on Fridays, weekends, and public holidays. Different monetary spending limits are also imposed against children based on age groups. Previous research presented conflicting evidence as to whether restrictions on gameplay time were beneficial, suggesting some young people circumvent the restrictions. Objective: Policy implementation evidence can inform both future domestic and international policymaking (including repealing ineffective policies). Whether and how major technology companies implement age ratings, age assurance, and identity verification procedures to enforce video game-related regulatory restrictions in Mainland China were novelly assessed. Methods: The 100 highest-grossing Mainland Chinese iPhone games on 5 January 2024 per data.ai formed the sample. For each game, any age rating-related information was recorded, and the presence of any identity verification procedure was determined through content analysis of the account creation process. Results: Confusingly, two age rating systems often providing conflicting information were presented simultaneously to Mainland Chinese consumers. As required, 95.0% of games conducted identity verification. However, 5.0% of games were accessible without the user having been required to complete identity verification processes, in breach of regulations. Conclusions: The implementation of a single, unified, and culturally appropriate age rating system that includes an adult-only rating would ensure better child protection. The currently widely adopted identity verification process has many flaws, including being easily circumventable. Actionable improvements, such as transmitting sensitive personal data only to a third-party identity verification provider rather than many individual video game companies, are recommended. The age assurance-related policy implementation insights from the Mainland Chinese video game restriction context are also relevant to technology regulation globally: many other countries are depending on such software solutions to address online harms young people might encounter, ranging from pornography to online gambling. |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:uqbf9_v2 |
| By: | Eric Maillé (RECOVER - Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thaddée Faure-Marie (RECOVER - Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | L'augmentation de l'occurrence de feux de forêt hors norme conduit à la multiplication des impacts sur les enjeux humains bâtis. La maîtrise du risque nécessite d'évaluer leur vulnérabilité à différentes échelles. |
| Keywords: | Interface habitat forêt, Vulnérabilité, Incendies de forêt, Feux de forêt |
| Date: | 2025–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05324819 |
| By: | SHIRATSUKA, Shigenori |
| Abstract: | An exit strategy from large-scale unconventional monetary policy requires central banks to adjust their policy interest rates and the size of their balance sheet. Adjustments of policy interest rates are carried out using neutral interest rates as a guidepost, even in the presence of measurement uncertainty. In contrast, adjustments of balance sheet size, or quantitative tightening (QT), are implemented through trial and error without any standardized guideposts. In this paper, I will develop a guidepost for the QT process in Japan. To that end, I will examine the long-term level of the balance sheet size of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), based on the estimation results for the nonlinear shape of the reserve demand curve. I will then carry out a simulation analysis of the transition path of the BOJ’s holdings of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). I will also address concerns over the boundary between fiscal financing and monetary policy by proposing the “extended banknote rules, ” both in the long term and in the transition. |
| Keywords: | Central bank balance sheet, New conventional monetary policy, Liquidity effects, Quantitative tightening, Extended banknote rule |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-146 |
| By: | Daniela Cubas (SDSN Bolivia); Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of family living expenses and living wage for three urban districts: South Tangerang in the province of Banten, and Garut and Subang in the province of West Java, in Indonesia. The update for 2025 takes into account inflation and changes in payroll deductions since the original Anker living wage study carried out in November 2023 (Pantja Pramudya et al., 2023). |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living wages, Anker Methodology, Indonesia |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:250426 |
| By: | Vinicius Schuabb; Pedro Chaves Maia; Valdemar Pinho Neto; Sergio Guimarães; Paulo Tafner |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how social policy shapes mobility responses to extreme weather events. We study Brazil's conditional cash transfer programme, Bolsa Família, and its impact on the relocation decisions of vulnerable households exposed to extreme rainfall. We assemble a novel dataset linking georeferenced household and firm records to high-resolution precipitation data, climate vulnerability maps, and federally recognized disaster reports, covering 858 municipalities from 2015 to 2020. |
| Keywords: | Weather shock, Conditional cash transfers, Resilience, Labour market |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-74 |
| By: | Edward Lane |
| Abstract: | he Social Security "full retirement age" (FRA) is the age at which retirement income benefits are available without reduction for early commencement. Presently, that age is 67 for those born in 1960 or later. This paper is about the unfair and unnecessary threat to reduce Social Security retirement income benefits (Romig 2023) by extending the full benefit retirement age--a change that will affect upwards of 80 percent of future retirees (Ross 2024), most of whom can ill-afford the reduction (Romig 2023). For those who don't follow these issues closely, the Social Security retirement, or Old-Age & Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is projected to become insolvent in 2033. Without Congressional action to preserve scheduled benefits, payable benefits would then be reduced by 20-25 percent. While both President Trump (Bolton 2024) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (Murray et al. 2025) have promised not to cut Social Security at a time when there is intense political pressure to reduce the federal budget deficit (Duehren 2025), it is unclear what will happen once Congress settles on a fiscal 2026 budget and the president signs off. If benefits are not reduced, the trust fund insolvency issue must still be resolved. To better understand why extending Social Security's FRA would be both unnecessary and unfair, this paper briefly explores Social Security's history, how Social Security payroll taxes subsidize other government expenditures, and how attempts are being made to roll back Social Security retirement benefit eligibility while other publicly funded retirement programs covering government employees have far more generous retirement eligibility provisions. The paper will conclude with recommendations to avoid program insolvency while preserving the FRA. |
| Keywords: | Social Security; FICA; Taxes; Trust Funds; OASI; OASDI; Medicare; Deficit; Inflation; Welfare; Treasury; Old-age; Intragovernmental and Federal debt; Retirement age |
| JEL: | H00 H50 H51 H53 H55 H61 H62 H63 H21 H22 H23 H24 H31 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1080 |
| By: | Pantig, Ida Marie T.; Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T. |
| Abstract: | In this report, we characterize government health expenditures, examine the fragmented and overlapping nature of various financing streams, and propose a framework to address these challenges. Over the past decade, the Philippines has experienced unprecedented growth in government health expenditures, driven by increased fiscal space, a policy emphasis on health, and rising national income. While this trend is commendable, we have observed growing fragmentation within the system despite attempts at consolidation under the Universal Health Care Act. Multiple financing streams—including PhilHealth, the country’s national health insurance program, as well as national and local government budgets and medical assistance programs—often overlap and sometimes compete. This situation undermines efficiency and equity by disrupting risk pooling, limiting economies of scale, and leading to instances of “double funding”. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Health Financing;Health Expenditure;Universal Health Care;National Health Insurance Program |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-28 |
| By: | Roberto Corrao; Joel P. Flynn; Karthik Sastry |
| Abstract: | We introduce a model of incentive contracting in which the principal, in addition to writing contracts, must engage in contractibility design: creating an evidence structure that allows them to prove when the agent has breached the contract. Designing an evidence structure entails both (i) front-end costs borne ex ante, such as those of drafting contracts, and (ii) back-end costs borne ex post, such as those of generating evidence. We find that, under even small front-end costs, optimal contracts are coarse, specifying finitely many contingencies out of a continuum of possibilities. In contrast, under even large back-end costs, optimal contracts are complete. Applied to the design of procurement contracts, our results rationalize: (i) the discreteness of contracts, (ii) the presence of similarly vague contracts in low-stakes and high-stakes settings, and (iii) the discontinuous adjustment of contracts to changes in the economic environment. |
| JEL: | D82 D86 K0 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34379 |
| By: | Kaldorf, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We propose a quantitative DSGE model with environmental and financial frictions to asses how high emission taxes affect optimal central bank collateral policy. Central banks specify which assets banks can pledge as collateral to obtain short-term central bank funding. This is referred to as central bank collateral policy and involves a trade-off between supplying sufficient liquidity to banks and exposing itself to losses from accepting risky assets as collat- eral. Emission taxes affect this trade-off by reducing productivity in the non-financial sector, such that the corporate default rate increases and the quality of collateral deteriorates. High emission taxes also reduce investment, debt issuance and, hence, the amount of collateral available to banks. This decline in the quantity of collateral is more pronounced if emission tax shocks are very persistent or permanent. It is therefore optimal to relax collateral policy in the longer run, where the collateral quantity channel dominates, and to tighten collateral policy after a transitory emission tax shock, in order to offset the short run reduction in collateral quality. |
| Keywords: | Central Bank Collateral Policy, Climate Policy, Collateral Premia, Corporate Default Risk |
| JEL: | E44 E58 E63 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:330307 |
| By: | William N. Goetzmann; Akiko Watanabe; Masahiro Watanabe |
| Abstract: | We show that procyclical stocks–those whose cash flows rise with expected economic growth–earn higher average returns than countercyclical stocks. Leveraging nearly 75 years of economist survey data on real GDP growth expectations, we identify economic states while sidestepping model-driven forecast error. GDP forecasts comove with consumption and predict the market return, real GDP growth, and consumption growth. This approach builds on the literatures on both the Intertemporal and Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Models. We document a statistically significant, economically meaningful procyclicality premium that remains robust to standard factor controls. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G12 G14 G17 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34402 |
| By: | Chepeliev, Maksym; Maryla Maliszewska; Amit Kanudia; Wen Jin Yuan; Channing Arndt; Dominique van der Mensbrugghe |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a combination of the global energy system model KINESYS and global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model ENVISAGE to analyze the impact of future climate mitigation policies. Results are subsequently linked to an atmospheric source-receptor model. Principal findings are as follows: (i) Holding global temperatures below 2oC requires significant policy effort. A uniformly applied tax of nearly $400 (2014 USD) per tonne of CO2eq is required. (ii) Ignoring benefits and co-benefits of mitigation policy, the cost to the global economy is relatively small. Holding global temperature rise below 2oC implies a loss of about 1.1% of global GDP. Using the revenue from carbon taxation to offset distorting taxes, as opposed to transferring carbon revenues in a lump sum manner to households, further reduces or reverses economic losses. (iii) However, benefits and co-benefits are significant. Benefits relate to reduced climate-related damages, such as lower frequency/intensity of extreme weather events. The co-benefit in focus relates to reduced air pollution. The monetized co-benefits of reduced air pollution substantially exceed the costs of mitigation alone by 2050 in most scenarios. Low-income countries experience a higher benefit-to-cost ratio compared to high-income economies. (iv) As mitigation effort increases, global trade-to-GDP ratios decline. Mitigation substitutes strongly traded fossil fuels for mostly domestically generated electricity. This downdraft on trade volume is a major and robust result. (v) The composition of trade shifts in logical ways, with production/trade in energy-intensive products tending to decline more and production/trade in less energy-intensive products tending to decline less. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:7609 |