|
on Investment |
| By: | Zhongtian Sun; Chenghao Xiao; Anoushka Harit; Jongmin Yu |
| Abstract: | Financial news is essential for accurate market prediction, but evolving narratives across macroeconomic regimes introduce semantic and causal drift that weaken model reliability. We present an evaluation framework to quantify robustness in financial NLP under regime shifts. The framework defines four metrics: (1) Financial Causal Attribution Score (FCAS) for alignment with causal cues, (2) Patent Cliff Sensitivity (PCS) for sensitivity to semantic perturbations, (3) Temporal Semantic Volatility (TSV) for drift in latent text representations, and (4) NLI-based Logical Consistency Score (NLICS) for entailment coherence. Applied to LSTM and Transformer models across four economic periods (pre-COVID, COVID, post-COVID, and rate hike), the metrics reveal performance degradation during crises. Semantic volatility and Jensen-Shannon divergence correlate with prediction error. Transformers are more affected by drift, while feature-enhanced variants improve generalisation. A GPT-4 case study confirms that alignment-aware models better preserve causal and logical consistency. The framework supports auditability, stress testing, and adaptive retraining in financial AI systems. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.00205 |
| By: | Ruben Aag; Hilde C. Bjornland; Peder Eliassen |
| Abstract: | This paper compares forecasting approaches for oil and natural gas prices within a unified pseudo-real-time framework. While oil price forecasting is well established, natural gas markets remain less explored and are characterized by more regionalized and less globally integrated pricing. By adapting established oil forecasting models to natural gas, we systematically assess how differences in market structure shape model transferability and predictive accuracy. Forecast combinations consistently outperform individual models for both commodities, underscoring the value of model averaging. However, the forecast gains are considerably larger for natural gas, reflecting greater potential for improvement in a more localized market. Optimal weighting schemes also differ: equal weights dominate for oil, while performance-based weights yield superior accuracy for gas. Overall, the results demonstrate that forecasting performance is both commodity- and market-structure-dependent, offering new insights into reliable energy price prediction across global and regional markets. |
| Keywords: | oil and natural gas prices, forecasting, model combinations |
| JEL: | C32 F41 O47 Q3 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-54 |
| By: | William Bergman (Loyola University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the Federal Reserve's current financial losses—unprecedented in scale—and the questionable accounting practices it uses to downplay their impact. It argues that the Fed's self-defined accounting standards, particularly the creation of a "deferred asset" to mask negative equity, obscure the fiscal consequences for the U.S. government and taxpayers. The analysis connects today's losses to longstanding institutional practices, notably the Fed's flawed cost-recovery accounting for its Fedwire payment system. These issues first emerged in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the author, then a Fed staffer, challenged the internal logic used to claim that Fedwire guaranteed payments and still avoided subsidies. The paper includes as an appendix the original 2002 draft, "Fedwire: A Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?", which helped reveal the moral hazard and accounting inconsistencies that contributed to the 2008 crisis and continue to shape central bank risk and governance today. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve, Central bank accounting, Fedwire, daylight overdrafts, Payment systems, financial crisis, monetary policy, financial regulation |
| JEL: | E0 E58 E42 G28 H83 L50 |
| Date: | 2024–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp237 |
| By: | Manuel Flores; Mariana Gerstenblüth; Lucía Suárez; Luciana Cantera |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of virtual instruction on academic achievement at the Univer-sidad de la Rep´ublica, Uruguay, in 2022. We analyze student performance by considering the sequential nature of the evaluation process within the courses. Our results reveal that students in virtual courses are less likely to be active or achieve course approval. When possible, we use alternative identification strategies that show the stability of the estimated effects. We also find that the gap in the results is explained by the sequence of intermediate tests, which combine different performances in terms of retention and test scores. We highlight the importance of ef-fective targeting as the negative effects disappear for students facing constraints on attendance. |
| Keywords: | Virtual education · Student performance · Sequential Treatment Effects · Hetero-geneous Treatment Effects · Program Targeting |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ude:wpaper:0124 |
| By: | Beinhocker, Eric; Bednar, Jenna |
| Abstract: | Since the first volume in this series (Anderson, Arrow & Pines, 1987), a variety of scholars have claimed that complexity economics presents a fundamentally different and more scientifically grounded way of explaining and modelling the economy than more traditional perspectives. Looking back at over thirty-five years of development in the field, this essay argues that complexity economics is not merely an alternative and advantageous set of methods for understanding the economy but could play a critical role in the construction of a new economic paradigm. Complexity economics is part of a broader interlocking set of ideas—an "ontological stack"—that has the potential to supplant the dominant economic paradigms of the twentieth century. The development of such a paradigm would have major implications for economic policy and politics. The essay concludes with a discussion of what can be done to advance the complexity economics agenda and how such a paradigm might be developed. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-20 |
| By: | Luis van Sandbergen |
| Abstract: | The provision of renewable electricity is the foundation for a sustainable future. To achieve the goal of sustainable renewable energy, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) could play a key role to counteract the intermittency of solar and wind generation power. In order to aid the system, the BESS can simply charge at low wholesale prices and discharge during high prices, which is also called energy arbitrage. However, the real-time execution of energy arbitrage is not straightforward for many companies due to the fundamentally different behavior of storages compared to conventional power plants. In this work, the optimized operation of standalone BESS in the cross-market energy arbitrage business is addressed by describing a generic framework for trading integrated BESS operation, the development of a suitable backtest engine and a specific optimization-based strategy formulation for cross-market optimized BESS operation. In addition, this strategy is tested in a case study with a sensitivity analysis to investigate the influence of forecast uncertainty. The results show that the proposed strategy allows an increment in revenues by taking advantage of the increasing market volatility. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the proposed strategy, as only a moderate portion of revenues will be lost if real forecasts are adopted. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.21337 |
| By: | Nicola Fontana (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Marco Manacorda (School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London); Gianluca Russo (CUNEF University); Marco Tabellini (Business, Government, and International Economy unit, Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the long-run effects of emigration on economic development. We consider the case of historical mass migration from Italy between 1880 and 1920, when more than 10 million people left the country. We exploit variation in access to information about opportunities abroad to derive an instrument for outmigration at the municipality level. We find that areas with higher historical emigration are poorer, less educated, and less densely populated at the turn of the 21st century. These effects emerged early and persisted, as emigration led to sustained depopulation that, combined with declining fertility and lower human capital investment, constrained the structural transformation from agriculture to manufacturing and services. |
| Keywords: | Emigration; long-run economic development |
| JEL: | F22 N33 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1125 |
| By: | Jaap A. Bikker; Michiel van Leuvensteijn; Jeroen Meringa |
| Abstract: | This paper adds to the literature by analysing for the first time the functioning of the Dutch pension funds market from a competition or efficiency perspective. Of course, competition is severely limited on this highly regulated market. The analyses focus on a key property of well-functioning markets: the reward of efficiency. The conclusion can be drawn that in the market for pension funds efficiency is indeed rewarded, up to a certain level. New regulations on cost transparency and on the quality of pension boards, and the ongoing consolidation among pension funds may be explanations for this development over time. At the same time, the level at which efficiency is rewarded is very low compared to other financial sectors such as the life insurance and banking sector. |
| Keywords: | Competition; efficiency; net investment returns; market shares; pension funds |
| JEL: | D4 H55 G22 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:839 |
| By: | Velilla, Jorge (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza); Chiappori, Pierre-André (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | Household dissolution is a key concern in family economics, with implications for individual welfare, child outcomes, income trajectories, or wealth, which ultimately impact inequality and vulnerability. This paper examines how wage dynamics relate to the stability of dual-earner households, using a collective model with limited commitment, where spouses commit to future behavior subject to individual rationality constraints, allowing for renegotiation of intrahousehold arrangements or household dissolution. We use data from the PSID over 1999-2019, and estimate how spouses’ wage changes relate to divorce, accounting for observed behaviors, demographics, and unobserved heterogeneity. The results show that large negative wage changes significantly increase the likelihood of divorce, while positive changes have no effect, as the model predicts. This pattern is consistent with asymmetric intrahousehold insurance, highlighting the role of economic risk and bargaining asymmetries in shaping family dynamics, and informs policies targeting household vulnerability to income shocks. |
| Keywords: | wages, divorce, commitment, collective model, PSID data |
| JEL: | D12 D13 J12 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18152 |
| By: | Nelson, David (The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); Kinczyk, Ada; Villanueva, Carlos Perez |
| Abstract: | Investors in energy infrastructure during these times of a rapid energy transition face two types of uncertainty. The first is whether a slower than required pace of transition will affect markets in ways that undermine investment cases. These risks can be identified and managed by understanding how the infrastructure, its cost, prices, revenues, and market size, might fit within the existing landscape. A more difficult and speculative risk has surrounded the question of whether an investment case might be undermined if the transition goals are met, but the transition path and direction differ substantially from original expectations. This paper uses scenario analysis of a wide range of different plausible, but less likely, transition paths to develop a fact base on which to assess these transition path risks. The 8 scenarios cover transitions where technology breakthroughs and policy accelerate the development of alternatives including nuclear power, carbon capture and sequestration, hydrogen, distributed renewable energy, and energy efficiency to levels at the edge of what forecasters deem as plausible. Two of the scenarios also look at the impact of accelerated development of renewable energy and hydrogen on a global scale, with opportunities to import technology and energy into Europe, where the economics of imports of electricity or hydrogen make sense. For each of these scenarios, we have developed forecasts of demand, prices, costs, utilization rates, price volatility, and investment, for the relevant energy markets and their technologies. |
| Keywords: | energy pathways, policy risk, risk management, scenarios, uncertainty |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-19 |
| By: | Perlik, Kerstin; Corona Juárez, Nicolás; Priebe, Jan |
| Abstract: | Congenital disorders are a principal cause of early mortality, long-term disabilities, impaired cognitive development and constitute a major challenge to families, communities, and health care systems. The origins of congenital disorders are, however, not yet well understood. Using a high-dimensional fixed-effects model that includes municipality specific time and locality-by-month fixed effects, this study provides the first causal evidence on the role of high ambient temperature during pregnancy in affecting the onset of congenital disorders. We compiled a large dataset comprising about 19 million births from about 63, 000 Mexican localities during 20082021 and connect it with local temperature data. We estimate that a 1C increase in the average monthly maximum temperature during gestation is associated with a rise in the incidence of congenital disorders by 2.4 percent (0.022 percentage points). Furthermore, we provide suggestive evidence that newborns from indigenous mothers are more likely to develop congenital birth disorders compared to children from non-indigenous parents when exposed to high ambient temperatures. |
| Keywords: | Birth outcomes;Climate shocks;Indigenous |
| JEL: | I14 I31 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14291 |
| By: | Stephan D. Whitaker |
| Abstract: | The United States has lost millions of manufacturing jobs in recent decades, but a variety of policies have been enacted to incentivize the creation of manufacturing jobs in America. This District Data Brief analyzes where manufacturers might find US workers to fill these roles. |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:c00003:101917 |
| By: | Haodong Liang; Yanhao Jin; Krishnakumar Balasubramanian; Lifeng Lai |
| Abstract: | We study instrumental variable regression (IVaR) under differential privacy constraints. Classical IVaR methods (like two-stage least squares regression) rely on solving moment equations that directly use sensitive covariates and instruments, creating significant risks of privacy leakage and posing challenges in designing algorithms that are both statistically efficient and differentially private. We propose a noisy two-state gradient descent algorithm that ensures $\rho$-zero-concentrated differential privacy by injecting carefully calibrated noise into the gradient updates. Our analysis establishes finite-sample convergence rates for the proposed method, showing that the algorithm achieves consistency while preserving privacy. In particular, we derive precise bounds quantifying the trade-off among privacy parameters, sample size, and iteration-complexity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to provide both privacy guarantees and provable convergence rates for instrumental variable regression in linear models. We further validate our theoretical findings with experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, demonstrating that our method offers practical accuracy-privacy trade-offs. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.22794 |
| By: | Lars van der Laan; Nathan Kallus; Aur\'elien Bibaut |
| Abstract: | Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to explain observed behavior by uncovering an underlying reward. In the maximum-entropy or Gumbel-shocks-to-reward frameworks, this amounts to fitting a reward function and a soft value function that together satisfy the soft Bellman consistency condition and maximize the likelihood of observed actions. While this perspective has had enormous impact in imitation learning for robotics and understanding dynamic choices in economics, practical learning algorithms often involve delicate inner-loop optimization, repeated dynamic programming, or adversarial training, all of which complicate the use of modern, highly expressive function approximators like neural nets and boosting. We revisit softmax IRL and show that the population maximum-likelihood solution is characterized by a linear fixed-point equation involving the behavior policy. This observation reduces IRL to two off-the-shelf supervised learning problems: probabilistic classification to estimate the behavior policy, and iterative regression to solve the fixed point. The resulting method is simple and modular across function approximation classes and algorithms. We provide a precise characterization of the optimal solution, a generic oracle-based algorithm, finite-sample error bounds, and empirical results showing competitive or superior performance to MaxEnt IRL. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.21172 |
| By: | Juan Passadore; Giovanni Sciacovelli; Ms. Filiz D Unsal; Carlos van Hombeeck |
| Abstract: | We present an Open Economy HANK model with relevant features for Low-Income Countries (LICs): hand-to-mouth households and a subsistence consumption for tradable goods. With the model calibrated for a representative LIC, we illustrate our broader framework with a shock to external prices. The shock causes a consumption-led recession, an increase in inflation and a drop in real wages. Consumption inequality rises: poor households cannot insure against the shock, unlike richer households who can tap into their wealth. Monetary policy is unable to substantively improve poorer households’ welfare, due to offsetting effects on real wages and labor demand. Simulations of the effects of alternative monetary policy responses on inequality yield similar findings. In this setting, fiscal transfers are a more effective tool for redistribution across households. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Inequality; Open Economy HANK; Low-income Countries |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/204 |
| By: | Clemens Possing (University of Waterloo); Andreea Rotarescu (Wake Forest University, Department of Economics); Kyungchul Song (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates feedback effects between bank health and zombie firms—financially distressed firms receiving subsidized credit. The literature focuses on how banks create zombies, overlooking zombies’ impact on bank health. Using Spanish firm-bank data (2005-2014), we document a vicious cycle: lower bank capital ratios are associated with higher zombie activity in served industries, while higher zombie prevalence is associated with reduced bank capital. We link this to a previously unexplored mechanism where banks respond appropriately to observable financial distress through higher provisioning, but overlook risks from relationship borrowers receiving subsidized rates. Our findings suggest that this feedback stems not from financial distress alone, but from the combination of distress with interest rate subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Zombie Lending; Bank-Firm-Industry Feedback; Capital Misallocation; Networks; Cross-Sectional Dependence |
| JEL: | C23 E44 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:wfuewp:021682 |
| By: | Maringer, Dietmar; Stähli, Philipp |
| Abstract: | Drawdown is an important risk measure in both theory and practice. Most drawdown measures use the running peak as the reference point from which to calculate the drawdown. Instead, the start-to-low drawdown (SLD), which references the start of the period, is firstly proposed as a relevant measure for levered investors. Secondly, an application to a levered investor who is also subject to regulatory capital requirements, as seen in the banking or insurance industry, is proposed. Such an investor is faced with regulatory sanctions as soon as their own funds no longer cover capital requirements, i.e., even before equity is exhausted. Portfolio optimization objectives are developed that consider return, cost of capital, and cost of drawdown together: the solvency cost-adjusted return (SCAR) including the cost of drawdown (SCARD). This is applied to the European insurance industry, with capital requirement calculations following the Solvency II standard model. For the empirical analysis, models of life and non-life insurance companies are constructed using EIOPA market overview data, and their investments are optimized for SCAR and SCARD as objectives. The investment universe consists of equity, corporate bond, and government bond indices with data ranging from 2005 to 2024. The characteristics and performance of SCARD-optimal portfolios of the modeled companies are compared to those of SCAR-optimal and equally weighted portfolios. Out-of-sample SCAR and SCARD following both objectives are higher than those of the equally weighted reference portfolio. SCARD-optimal portfolios show lower cost of solvency capital and lower drawdown than their SCAR-optimal counterparts, but also lower returns. The differences in return outweigh those of the other components, resulting in the SCAR and SCARD of SCAR-optimal portfolios tending to be higher than those of SCARD-optimal portfolios. |
| Keywords: | Cost of Solvency Capital, Drawdown Risk, Lever- aged Investors, Portfolio Optimization, Solvency I |
| JEL: | C63 G11 G22 G28 G32 |
| Date: | 2025–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/07 |
| By: | Andrea Della Vecchia; Damir Filipovi\'c |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates theoretical and methodological foundations for stochastic optimal control (SOC) in discrete time. We start formulating the control problem in a general dynamic programming framework, introducing the mathematical structure needed for a detailed convergence analysis. The associate value function is estimated through a sequence of approximations combining nonparametric regression methods and Monte Carlo subsampling. The regression step is performed within reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs), exploiting the classical KRR algorithm, while Monte Carlo sampling methods are introduced to estimate the continuation value. To assess the accuracy of our value function estimator, we propose a natural error decomposition and rigorously control the resulting error terms at each time step. We then analyze how this error propagates backward in time-from maturity to the initial stage-a relatively underexplored aspect of the SOC literature. Finally, we illustrate how our analysis naturally applies to a key financial application: the pricing of American options. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.20239 |
| By: | Yong Li (School of Economics, Renmin University of China); Zhou Wu (School of Economics, Zhejiang University); Jun Yu (Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau); Tao Zeng (School of Economics, Zhejiang University) |
| Abstract: | TMüller (2013, Econometrica, 81(5), 1805-1949) shows that Bayesian inference of parameters of interest in a misspecified model can reduce the asymptotic frequentist risk when the standard posterior is replaced with the sandwich posterior. In this paper, we extend the results in Müller (2013) to Bayesian model comparison. Bayesian model comparison of potentially misspecified models can be conducted in a predictive framework with three alternative predictive distributions, namely, the plug-in predictive distribution, the standard posterior predictive distribution, and the sandwich posterior predictive distribution of Müller (2013). Via the Kullback-Leibler (KL) loss function, it is shown that the sandwich posterior predictive distribution yields a lower asymptotic risk than the standard posterior predictive distribution. Moreover, we provide sufficient conditions under which the sandwich posterior predictive distribution yields a lower asymptotic risk than the plug-in predictive distribution. We then propose two new Bayesian penalized information criteria based on the last two predictive distributions to compare misspecified models and establish their relationship with some existing information criteria. The proposed new information criteria are illustrated in several empirical studies. |
| Keywords: | AIC, DIC, Information criterion, Model misspecification, Sandwich posterior. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boa:wpaper:202536 |
| By: | Michel Grabisch (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics); Elena Parilina (Saint Peterburg State University); Agnieszka Rusinowska (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, CNRS, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics); Georges Zaccour (GERAD, HEC Montréal) |
| Abstract: | We investigate a T-stage dynamic network formation game with linear-quadratic payoffs. Players interact through network which they create as a result of their actions. We study two versions of the dynamic game and provide the equilibrium analysis. First, we assume that players sequentially propose links to others with whom they want to connect and choose the levels of contribution for their links. The players have limited total contributions or capacities for forming links at every stage which can differ among players and over time. They cannot delete links, but the principle of natural elimination of links with no contribution is adopted. Next, we assume that the players simultaneously and independently propose links to other players and have overall limited capacities for the whole game, and not for each stage. This means that every player can redistribute the capacity not only over links, but also over time. The equilibrium concept for the first version of the dynamic game is subgame perfect equilibrium, while it is the Nash equilibrium in open-loop strategies for the second version. Both models are illustrated with numerical examples |
| Keywords: | Network Formation Game; Dynamic Linear-Quadratic Game; Farsighted Players; Limited Capacities; Nash Equilibrium |
| JEL: | D85 C73 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25019 |
| By: | Tatsuru Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | I develop a comprehensive theoretical framework for dynamic spatial treatment effect boundaries using continuous functional definitions grounded in Navier-Stokes partial differential equations. Rather than discrete treatment effect estimators, the framework characterizes treatment intensity as a continuous function $\tau(\mathbf{x}, t)$ over space-time, enabling rigorous analysis of propagation dynamics, boundary evolution, and cumulative exposure patterns. Building on exact self-similar solutions expressible through Kummer confluent hypergeometric and modified Bessel functions, I establish that treatment effects follow scaling laws $\tau(d, t) = t^{-\alpha} f(d/t^\beta)$ where exponents characterize diffusion mechanisms. Empirical validation using 42 million TROPOMI satellite observations of NO$_2$ pollution from U.S. coal-fired power plants demonstrates strong exponential spatial decay ($\kappa_s = 0.004$ per km, $R^2 = 0.35$) with detectable boundaries at 572 km. Monte Carlo simulations confirm superior performance over discrete parametric methods in boundary detection and false positive avoidance (94\% vs 27\% correct rejection). Regional heterogeneity analysis validates diagnostic capability: positive decay parameters within 100 km confirm coal plant dominance; negative parameters beyond 100 km correctly signal when urban sources dominate. The continuous functional perspective unifies spatial econometrics with mathematical physics, providing theoretically grounded methods for boundary detection, exposure quantification, and policy evaluation across environmental economics, banking, and healthcare applications. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.14409 |
| By: | Anna Lungarska (US ODR - Observatoire des Programmes Communautaires de Développement Rural - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Raja Chakir (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the complex relationship between climate change and ecosystem services (ESs) in France. We explore both the direct effects of climate change and the indirect effects of land-use change on six regulating ESs (e.g., habitat quality, water retention) and two provisioning ESs (e.g., crop production, livestock production). Results indicate that while climate change may initially have positive impacts on ESs, the induced negative impacts of land-use adaptation often overshadow these benefits. We show the effectiveness of a greenhouse gas (GHG) tax of 200€/tCO2eq on agriculture in offsetting the negative effects of land-use adaptation to climate change on ESs. This highlights the importance of integrating economic instruments, such as carbon pricing mechanisms, to promote the sustainable management of ESs in the context of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Climate change adaptation and mitigation, Spatial autocorrelation, Land use, Ecosystem services |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04692723 |
| By: | Zoltan Bartha |
| Abstract: | This study aims to reveal different varieties of capitalism and to uncover new patterns of development that emerged between 2010 and 2020. A hybrid model is applied that quantifies three pillars of development (Future - F, Outside - O, Inside - I) using supply-side and demand-side indicators that measure norms, institutions, and policies. Investigating 34 OECD members, this study describes five varieties of capitalism: traditional, dualistic, government-led, open market-based, and human capital-based models. It is suggested that the most significant cut-off point in the development of OECD economies in this period was along the green growth dimension, where European countries with a tradition in coordinated markets outperform the rest. Using Israel and Estonia as an example, it is also suggested that institutional and policy changes that enhance the quality of governance and make coordination more effective are the way out of the middle-income trap. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.19416 |
| By: | Taekyun Kim (School of Business, Chungnam National University); Gabriela Fuentes (Graduate School of Economics and Management, University Cote d'Azur); Simone Vannuccini (Graduate School of Economics and Management, University Cote d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | We study the emerging technology of vision-language-action models (VLAMs), a potential breakthrough for the robotics industry. VLAMs connect artiï¬ cial intelligence’s large language models with robots: they are a software innovation that increases flexibility and expand capabilities of robotic hardware. As the technology is yet in its infancy, we focus our analysis on three directions. First, we study the technological trajectory of VLAMs in scientiï¬ c publications using scientometric techniques. Second, in order to assess market transformations associated with VLAMs and potential migration in the locus of value generation in robotics, we collect information and offer insights on the actors developing the technology ‘in the wild’. Third, we discuss the strategies put in place by a leading actor in the ï¬ eld to gatekeep the competitive landscape. We then generalise and rationalise our ï¬ ndings through established theoretical frameworks. The paper is the ï¬ rst to single out the forces at work in the development of an innovation poised to rejuvenate the robotics industry, one of the backbones of contemporary economies. |
| Keywords: | Robotics; Artiï¬ cial Intelligence; Vision-Language-Action Models; VLA; Embodied AI |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdj:smioir:2025-03 |
| By: | Sebastián Fernández Franco (Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios de Historia Económica Argentina y Latinoamericana (CEHEAL). Buenos Aires, Argentina.); Ignacio Lautaro Paola (Universidad de San Martín (UNSAM). Escuela Interdisciplinaria de Altos Estudios Sociales (EIDAES). San Martín, Argentina.); Lucas Terranova (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Buenos Aires, Argentina.); Guido Weksler (Universidad de San Martín (UNSAM). Escuela Interdisciplinaria de Altos Estudios Sociales (EIDAES), Centro de Estudios Económicos del Desarrollo (CEED). San Martín, Argentina.); Sebastián Litvak |
| Abstract: | De acuerdo con el área de complejidad económica, los conocimientos incorporados en la canasta exportadora permiten explicar el crecimiento económico. La intuición de que no da lo mismo qué se produce se resume en dos indicadores principales: el Índice de Complejidad Económica (ICE) y el Índice de Complejidad de los Productos (ICP). En el caso argentino, existen antecedentes en el uso de esta métrica, principalmente orientados al análisis de la estructura productiva y a la recomendación de productos o sectores a promover. Sin embargo, dichos estudios no se han centrado en evaluar la trayectoria económica y la inserción internacional del país a la luz de la evolución de la dinámica del indicador en el mediano plazo. Este documento aborda, en primer lugar, los fundamentos teóricos y metodológicos del ICE. En segundo término, analiza la evolución de la complejidad económica de Argentina entre 2000 y 2023. A continuación, se examina dicha trayectoria en paralelo con la del tipo de cambio real, dada su re levancia para la dinámica exportadora. Finalmente, se discuten las limitaciones del ICE como reflejo de las capacidades productivas nacionales y se proponen ajustes metodológicos en el cálculo de las Ventajas Comparativas Reveladas (VCR), sobre las que se basa dicho índice. |
| Keywords: | Siglo XXI, Ventajas comparativas relevadas, Comercio internacional, Argentina, Complejidad económica |
| JEL: | F14 O54 O20 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:2025-101 |
| By: | McGuirk, Eoin; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | We examine the intersection of two subfields within political economy: geoeconomics and conflict. Geoeconomics is primarily concerned with the use of "economic weapons " of coercion, while the conflict literature mainly focuses on military weapons and war. We propose bridging these two approaches, focusing on the international dimension of conflict. We start by reviewing the existing literature linking both fields, in particular research on the relationship between trade and war and on the use of geoeconomic tools such as foreign aid and sanctions. We then highlight four main directions for future research. First, we call for a broader view of the geoeconomic toolkit, as rogue leaders do not limit themselves to economic coercion. In addition to economic weapons, future research should also consider more aggressive -and often costlier - forms of intervention short of war, including sabotage, cyberattacks, covert operations, and the sponsorship of terrorism or insurgency. Second, we require a better understanding of how geoeconomic tools affect the likelihood of conflict. Do sanctions, strategic tariffs, or military aid provoke or deter war? Third, more research is needed on the domestic political economy of geoeconomic actions and their link with conflict. When and why do governments and citizens support the use of economic versus noneconomic weapons? Finally, we stress the importance of research on explicitly peacemaking tools of diplomacy, including mediation, security guarantees, and transparency initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Geoeconomics, conflict, political economy |
| JEL: | F01 F51 F13 F50 D74 H56 N40 F01 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:328237 |
| By: | Hall, Caroline (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Lindskog, Annika (Department of Economics, University of Gothenborg); Lundin, Martin (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of distance learning on educational outcomes for lower secondary school students in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. We leverage variation in the implementation of remote instruction across schools and compare pre-pandemic and pandemic-affected cohorts using a difference-in-differences design with entropy balancing weights. We examine effects on grade 9 students’ test scores on standardized tests and their transition to upper secondary school. Our findings suggest that students in schools that adopted remote instruction performed similarly to those in schools that maintained in-person teaching throughout the pandemic. Moreover, progression to upper secondary school was not negatively affected. In some cases, we even find evidence of positive effects of remote instruction. We find some support for the interpretation that these positive effects may be due to remote instruction enabling more teaching hours during a period with high teacher and student absence. |
| Keywords: | Remote instruction; distance learning; school performance; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_016 |
| By: | Konstantin Egorov; Vasily Korovkin; Alexey Makarin; Dzhamilya Nigmatulina |
| Abstract: | How effective are trade sanctions? We examine the economic impact of the unprecedented sanc- tions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports ac- counting for 36% of Russia’s prewar import value. Combining novel, manually collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm balance sheets, domestic railway shipments, and government procurement contracts, we provide the most comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of trade sanctions on a target country to date. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that imports of sanctioned country-product varieties into Russia saw a sharp 62% decline following the war’s onset. While we see substantial rerouting through third countries, it did not fully offset the direct import losses: total imports of sanctioned products fell by 27%. Firms that had relied on soon-to-be-sanctioned imports experienced a 14% decline in output, also observed in manufacturing, technology, and firms linked to military supply chains. Affected firms also saw reduced government procurement sales and incurred additional losses when their buyers or suppliers were exposed to sanctions. Overall, our findings suggest that, contrary to widespread claims of ineffectiveness, import sanctions on Russia had far-reaching adverse effects. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, international trade, Russia-Ukraine war, geoeconomics |
| JEL: | D22 D74 F14 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1920 |
| By: | Ross Koval; Nicholas Andrews; Xifeng Yan |
| Abstract: | Text and time series data offer complementary views of financial markets: news articles provide narrative context about company events, while stock prices reflect how markets react to those events. However, despite their complementary nature, effectively integrating these interleaved modalities for improved forecasting remains challenging. In this work, we propose a unified neural architecture that models these interleaved sequences using modality-specific experts, allowing the model to learn unique time series patterns, while still enabling joint reasoning across modalities and preserving pretrained language understanding capabilities. To further improve multimodal understanding, we introduce a cross-modal alignment framework with a salient token weighting mechanism that learns to align representations across modalities with a focus on the most informative tokens. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a large-scale financial forecasting task, achieving state-of-the-art performance across a wide variety of strong unimodal and multimodal baselines. We develop an interpretability method that reveals insights into the value of time series-context and reinforces the design of our cross-modal alignment objective. Finally, we demonstrate that these improvements translate to meaningful economic gains in investment simulations. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.19628 |
| By: | Fengnan Deng; Anand N. Vidyashankar; Jeffrey F. Collamore |
| Abstract: | We obtain sharp large deviation estimates for exceedance probabilities in dependent triangular array threshold models with a diverging number of latent factors. The prefactors quantify how latent-factor dependence and tail geometry enter at leading order, yielding three regimes: Gaussian or exponential-power tails produce polylogarithmic refinements of the Bahadur-Rao $n^{-1/2}$ law; regularly varying tails yield index-driven polynomial scaling; and bounded-support (endpoint) cases lead to an $n^{-3/2}$ prefactor. We derive these results through Laplace-Olver asymptotics for exponential integrals and conditional Bahadur-Rao estimates for the triangular arrays. Using these estimates, we establish a Gibbs conditioning principle in total variation: conditioned on a large exceedance event, the default indicators become asymptotically i.i.d., and the loss-given-default distribution is exponentially tilted (with the boundary case handled by an endpoint analysis). As illustrations, we obtain second-order approximations for Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, clarifying when portfolios operate in the genuine large-deviation regime. The results provide a transferable set of techniques-localization, curvature, and tilt identification-for sharp rare-event analysis in dependent threshold systems. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.19151 |
| By: | Schmucker, Alexandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vom Berge, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) 1975 - 2023." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Stichprobe der Integrierten Arbeitsmarktbiografien ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datendokumentation ; Datengewinnung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; IAB-Leistungsempfängerhistorik ; Stichprobenverfahren ; 10.5164/IAB.SIAB7523.de.en.v2 ; 1975-2023 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:2025v202(en) |
| By: | Demary, Markus; Taft, Niklas |
| Abstract: | Bei Stablecoins handelt es sich um Finanzinstrumente, die ähnlich wie Geldmarktfonds funktionieren und in US-Staatsanleihen investieren. Jedoch werden bei Stablecoins keine Fondsanteile, sondern Kryptowerte erworben. Wie bei den Eurodollars in den 1960er und 1970er Jahren handelt es sich um finanzielle Verbindlichkeiten, die außerhalb des US-Bankensystems geschaffen wurden. Mit dem GENIUS-Gesetz (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins of 2025) zielen die USA auf die Förderung des Marktes für Stablecoins ab. Die Auswirkungen einer verstärkten Vernetzung von Stablecoins mit dem weltweit größten und liquidesten Markt für Staatsanleihen ist für die globale Finanzmarktstabilität jedoch bedeutsam. Die Staatsverschuldung der USA beläuft sich aktuell auf rund 122 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP). Sie ist auch deshalb gestiegen, weil sich die Lebenserwartung der Bevölkerung von 70 Jahren im Jahr 1966 auf 78 Jahre im Jahr 2024 verlängert hat. Dies hat dazu geführt, dass die Ausgaben für Medicare und Medicaid von jeweils 0, 2 Prozent des BIP auf 3, 6 und 3, 1 Prozent des BIP und die Ausgaben der Rentenversicherung im gleichen Zeitraum von 2, 4 Prozent auf 4, 8 Prozent gestiegen sind. Für die wachsende Staatsverschuldung der USA ist auch verantwortlich, dass sich zwischen Staatsausgaben und Steuereinnahmen im Zeitablauf eine Schere aufgetan hat. Zudem werden rund 13 Prozent der Steuerschuld nicht eingetrieben. Trotz der hohen Ausgaben im Vergleich zu den Einnahmen finanzieren ausländische Anleger diese Verschuldung, da die USA über den bedeutendsten sicheren Hafen für Investoren verfügen und der US-Dollar die bedeutendste Reserve- und Transaktionswährung darstellt. US-Staatsanleihen gelten dabei als das sicherste Finanzinstrument. Aufgrund der global hohen Nachfrage nach diesem Safe Asset, verfügen die USA über sehr günstige Finanzierungsbedingungen. Grund zur Sorge bereitet aber eine Entdollarisierung, d.h. eine Verringerung der Verwendung des Dollars im Welthandel und bei Finanztransaktionen. Eine Förderung des Marktes für Stablecoins soll der Entdollarisierung entgegenwirken. Ähnlich wie die Geldmarktfonds können sie die Liquiditätshaltung von Haushalten und Unternehmen mit der Staatsfinanzierung verbinden. Die Vernetzung von US-Staatsverschuldung und Stablecoins könnte Gefahren für die globale Finanzstabilität mit sich bringen. Denn wenn der Markt für US-Staatsanleihen unter Druck geraten würde, dann sind Stablecoins für ihre Anleger nicht länger ein sicherer Vermögenswert. Ähnlich wie bei Geldmarktfonds besteht bei Stablecoins ein Run-Risiko. In Panik geratene Kunden können ihr Geld sofort abziehen, was einen sofortigen Verkaufsdruck auslöst und Notfallverkäufe auf der Aktivseite des Stablecoins nach sich ziehen kann, welche zu einem Preisverfall bei US-Staatsanleihen führen können. Aufgrund der hohen globalen Bedeutung des US-Kapitalmarkts als sicherer Hafen könnte sich daraus eine globale Finanzmarktkrise entwickeln. |
| Abstract: | Stablecoins are financial instruments which work similar to money market funds, and which invest in US government bonds. Stablecoins, however, issue cryptocurrencies instead of fund shares. Similar to the Eurodollar market in the 1960ies and the 1970ies are financial liabilities created, which are issued outside the US capital market. With the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins of 2025) the USA aim to promote the market for stablecoins. The consequences of a deepening interconnection between stablecoins and the globally largest and most liquid market for government bonds are crucial for global financial stability. The government debt of the USA sums currently to 122 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). It has increased inter alia because the life expectancy of the US population has increased from 70 years in the year 1966 to 78 years in the year 2024. Demographic change has contributed to the increased expenditures for Medicare and Medicaid from 0.2 percent of the GDP each to 3.6 and 3.1 percent of the GDP and it has contributed to increased expenditures for Social Security from 2.4 percent to 4.8 percent of the GDP over the same time span. Also responsible for the growing debt ratio is the growing gap between government spending and tax revenues. Moreover, 13 percent of the tax revenues in the USA cannot be collected. Despite the high government expenditures in relation to the tax revenues are foreign investors willing to finance the government debt, because the USA is the globally most important safe haven for investors and the US-Dollar is the most important reserve and transaction currency in global foreign exchange markets. USTreasuries are the globally most important safe assets. The high global demand for this safe asset contributes to the low financing cost of the USA. One reason to worry is the process of de-dollarization, which is a reduction in the use of the US-Dollar in global trade and financial transactions. The promotion of the market for stablecoins could lessen the dedollarization. Similar to money market funds could stablecoins connect the liquidity demand of households and companies to government financing. However, the interconnection between the US government debt and stablecoins could lead to threats to global financial stability. If the market for US government bonds would come under pressure, stablecoins would no longer be regarded as safe money by their holders. Similar to money market funds, stablecoins would be prone to a run-risk. If panicking holders of a large stablecoin could try to withdraw money, this will force its management to enact fire-sales of the fund's bonds which could trigger a price drop of US government bonds. Because of the high global importance of the US capital market as a safe haven this could trigger a global financial crisis. |
| JEL: | E44 F31 F34 H5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:328257 |
| By: | Nobel Prize Committee (Nobel Prize Committee) |
| Abstract: | On a daily basis, we are reminded of how fast technology progresses and how it changes the world around us. New discoveries and new innovations affect our lives directly and they also fundamentally affect the economy. Technological change is of course not a new phenomenon. Progress and innovations have occurred since ancient times. What is relatively recent, however, viewed against the entire history of hu- mankind, is the type of innovation-driven economic growth enjoyed by the advanced countries of the world during the last two centuries, and how such high growth rates are sustained. |
| Keywords: | technological innovation; economic growth |
| JEL: | O |
| Date: | 2025–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nobelp:021675 |
| By: | Kristijan Fidanovski (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Biljana Jovanovikj (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Nóra Kungl (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hana Ross (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Cigarette prices vary widely across Europe and are difficult to compare, not least because of brand availability and income differences. We have developed two indices (Marlboro-Water and Marlboro-Eggs), comparing the price of a well-known brand sold in 34 European countries to that of two widely used consumer goods to provide intuitive estimates of cigarette affordability. Our indices show that cigarettes tend to be most affordable in the South and the East of Europe, where tobacco taxes tend to be lower and smoking rates higher. By expressing the affordability of cigarettes relative to widely used consumer goods, this study aims to shed further light on the well-established links between tobacco taxes, prices and consumption, highlighting the benefits of policies that aim to reduce cigarette affordability. |
| Keywords: | Marlboro indices, cigarette affordability, cigarette taxation |
| JEL: | I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:101 |
| By: | Solomon Hsiang |
| Abstract: | Empirical research has revolutionized how we understand the global economic impacts of climate change. Recent empirical analyses have tested theoretical ideas, challenged prior estimates, and revealed important and unexpected impacts. Further, the credibility and replicability of empirical results have played a critical role in guiding high-stakes climate policies. Here, I describe the landscape of empirical economic research on global impacts, I explain elements of modern analyses, I summarize recent findings on a range of topics, and I point towards promising new areas of investigation. In particular, I focus on empirical perspectives for six “grand challenges” in the field: understanding climate change’s global impact on economic output, health, conflict, food security, disasters, and migration. Overall, I argue that interwoven empirical findings across outcomes are aligning to paint an increasingly coherent picture of a future global economy impacted by climate change. Taking the literature as a whole, the global consequences of unmitigated climate change are likely to be substantial, unequal, negative in net economic value and potentially destabilizing. |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34357 |
| By: | Florian Magnani (MAGELLAN - Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon); Maricela Arellano (HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal); Laurent Joblot (LISPEN - Laboratoire d’Ingénierie des Systèmes Physiques et Numériques - Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies); Fernando Naranjo (Niagara University); Alexandre Guillard (ESSEC Business School); Mario Passalacqua (UQÀM - Département de Psychologie - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal) |
| Abstract: | With artificial intelligence (AI) transforming operations management, lean professionals— ranging from in-house practitioners to external consultants—face both opportunities and tensions. This study explores how AI influences their practices and roles by applying a Delphi- Régnier method with experts from industry, academia, and consulting. It examines organizational, technological, informational, and people challenges. We aim to offer preliminary insights into the challenges faced by lean professionals, including how they navigate between executional tasks and strategic advisory roles. It also investigates how AI complements human expertise within hybrid decision-making systems. The study will propose practical guidelines for aligning AI integration with lean principles. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Lean, Delphi-Régnier study |
| Date: | 2025–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05222872 |
| By: | Philippe van der Beck (Harvard Business School); Lorenzo Bretscher (Swiss Finance Institute - HEC Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Julie Zhiyu Fu (Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | Asset prices are highly volatile, yet portfolio flows – changes in portfolio holdings – are relatively small. This reveals a fundamental tension between the price impact of portfolio flows and the agreement among investors: if price volatility is high while portfolio turnover is low, then either market participants largely agree with each other, or they are not sensitive to price changes (they are "inelastic"), resulting in large price impacts of portfolio flows. We formalize this trade-off and demonstrate that the ratio of return volatility to portfolio turnover provides a lower bound on price impact, conditional on the level of investor disagreement. Using several measures from survey data, we document substantial disagreement, implying meaningful lower bounds on price impacts. The bounds align closely with reduced-form estimates from a variety of quasi-experiments, such as price impacts from index reconstitutions. We demonstrate how these bounds vary across horizons, different assets, and at various levels of aggregation, including the aggregate stock market, and discuss their implications for asset pricing models. We argue that in such markets with high disagreement and price impact, observed trading activity is not peripheral but central to understanding asset price movements. |
| Keywords: | price impact, elasticity, portfolio turnover, investor disagreement |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2577 |
| By: | Nicolas M. Burotto (Universidad Andres Bello) |
| Abstract: | I develop a discrete-time Keynesian D/Z model in which inflationary inertia arises from distributional conflict between firms and workers. The mechanism centers on aspiration gaps—the divergence between actual real wages and income targets—which, when combined with strong bargaining power, generate persistent inflation even after conventional macroeconomic gaps close. The model shows that equilibrium in real wages does not guarantee distributional balance, and that market mechanisms alone cannot restore stability. This underscores the need for a "social consensus" that moderates aspiration dynamics and defuses conflict-driven inflationary pressures. |
| Keywords: | inflation inertia; distributional conflict; aspiration gaps; effective demand; wage-price dynamics. |
| JEL: | E12 E25 E31 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp235 |
| By: | Odran Bonnet (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)); Tristan Loisel (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)) |
| Abstract: | Since the health crisis in 2020, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) has had access to anonymized samples of bank accounts from La Banque Postale and Crédit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale. These data, rich in information, have enabled the analysis of the real‑time evolution of households' financial situation during both the unprecedented COVID‑19 crisis and the inflationary episode in 2022. They have also paved the way for the analysis of households' daily situation, highlighting instances of overdrafts at month‑end, and for the evaluation of a public policy by measuring the financial, distributive, and environmental impacts of the fuel subsidy implemented in 2022 following the rise in fuel prices. Bank data are a goldmine of valuable information, but their use raises many challenges. After four years of use, a first assessment of their exploitation is presented in this paper. How can we build economically meaningful concepts from these data? How can we ensure their representativeness? What are the benefits of these data to public statistics? While they do not replace survey and tax data, they complement cyclical analyses. Moreover, they allow us to address long‑standing questions about household consumption and savings that traditional sources could not answer. This paper details the challenges and difficulties in using private data that were not produced for statistical purposes but for the management of bank operations. |
| Abstract: | Depuis la crise sanitaire en 2020, l'Insee bénéficie d'un accès à des échantillons anonymisés de comptes bancaires de La Banque Postale et du Crédit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale. Ces données, riches en informations, ont permis de documenter l'évolution de la situation financière des ménages en temps réel lors de la crise inédite de la Covid-19, puis lors de l'épisode inflationniste en 2022. Elles ont également permis de documenter la situation quotidienne des ménages, mettant en lumière des épisodes de découvert en fin de mois, et d'évaluer une politique publique en mesurant les impacts financiers, distributifs et environnementaux de la remise à la pompe instaurée en 2022 à la suite de la hausse des prix du carburant. Les données bancaires sont une mine d'informations précieuses, mais leur utilisation soulève de nombreux défis. Après quatre années d'utilisation, un premier bilan de leur exploitation est proposé dans cet article. Comment construire des concepts qui ont un sens économique à partir de ces données ? Comment s'assurer de leur représentativité ? Quels sont les apports de ces données pour la statistique publique ? Si elles ne permettent pas de remplacer les données d'enquêtes et fiscales, elles complètent les analyses conjoncturelles. En outre, elles permettent de répondre à des questions anciennes sur la consommation et l'épargne des ménages auxquelles les sources traditionnelles ne pouvaient apporter de réponses. Dans cet article, sont détaillés les enjeux et les difficultés pour utiliser des données qui proviennent d'acteurs privés et n'ont pas été produites à des fins statistiques, mais à des fins de gestion par les banques. |
| Keywords: | Household financial situation, Official statistics, Bank data, Statistique publique, Menages -- situation financière, Données bancaires |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05285187 |