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on Investment |
| By: | Ricardo Alonzo Fernandez Salguero |
| Abstract: | This document offers a synthesis of recent economic literature on three interconnected areas of labor markets: informality, the effects of the minimum wage, and monopsony power. Through the consolidation and meta-analysis of findings from multiple existing systematic reviews and meta-analyses, their causes, consequences, and associated public policies are examined. It is concluded that conventional views on these topics often overestimate the magnitude of effects. Policies to reduce informality based solely on lowering formalization costs are largely ineffective, while increased enforcement at the extensive margin shows more promising results. The effects of the minimum wage on employment, measured through the own-wage elasticity (OWE), are consistently modest, suggesting that job losses are limited compared to wage gains. To reconcile and microfound these findings, an integrated theoretical model of firm optimization is introduced, simultaneously incorporating firm heterogeneity, monopsony power, and endogenous formality decisions, rigorously demonstrating how the interaction of these forces can explain the observed empirical regularities. A cross-cutting and significant finding is the omnipresence of publication bias across all these study areas, which tends to inflate the magnitude of the effects reported in the published literature. Corrected estimates of the effects generally approach zero. Meta-regression is established as an indispensable tool for identifying heterogeneity and the true underlying effects in the empirical evidence, compelling a recalibration of both theory and economic policy recommendations towards a more nuanced and integrated approach. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.20465 |
| By: | Luca Fornaro; Martin Wolf |
| Abstract: | We study public debt sustainability in an economy with endogenous productivity growth. Our model has two key features: i) financing large primary surpluses entails fiscal distortions that depress investment and growth, ii) low growth increases the primary surpluses needed to stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Negative shocks to fundamentals or pessimistic animal spirits may drive the economy into a state of fiscal stagnation, characterized by high public debt, large fiscal distortions and low productivity growth. We discuss policy options to avoid/escape fiscal stagnation. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Public Debt, Endogenous Productivity Growth, Stagnation, Investment. |
| JEL: | E22 E62 H63 O40 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1905 |
| By: | Naoki Yoshihara |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the structure of the set of steady-state competitive equilibria defined in a quite generalized von Neumann economic model. First, it is shown that in any von Neumann production economy, there exists an admissible domain of non-negative interest rates such that for every interest rate within the domain, there exists an associated steady state equilibrium. Second, for almost all interest rates within the domain, the associated steady state equilibrium is indeterminate. Thus, in summary, for any von Neumann production economy, there is a dense subset of the admissible domain over which the set of steady state equilibria consists of a finite number of one-dimensional continuums of those equilibria. This property is observed regardless of whether the underlying economy is regular or not, which contrasts sharply with the finite and discrete properties of the other types of Walrasian equilibria in both static and intertemporal regular economies. These main results suggest, as a new, future research agenda, the need to study an appropriate equilibrium selection mechanism that should be applied prior to market competition. |
| Keywords: | generic indeterminacy of Walras-von Neumann steady state equilibria, von Neumann production economies, a finite number of one-dimensional continuums of Walras-von Neumann steady state equilibria |
| JEL: | B51 D33 D50 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2025-5 |
| By: | Francesc Dilmé (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | An equilibrium outcome of a game in extensive form is fully self-justifiable if it is supported by justifiable equilibria (McLennan, 1985) regardless of the order in which actions implausible under the given outcome are excluded. We show that the set of fully self-justifiable outcomes is non-empty and contains the set of sequentially stable outcomes (Dilmé, 2024). In signaling games, fully self-justifiable outcomes pass all the selection criteria in Cho and Kreps (1987). Full self-justifiability allows for the systematic use of the logic of selection criteria in signaling games to select equilibria in any finite extensive form game. |
| Keywords: | Justifiable equilibria, selection criteria |
| JEL: | C72 C73 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:375 |
| By: | Arnault Violet (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, Académie d'Aix-Marseille, CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Aix-en-Provence - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, AMU ECO - Aix-Marseille Université - Faculté d'économie et de gestion - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | The long-term survival of France's SMEs is a major economic and social challenge. The ageing of business owners, coupled with a decline in the number of company takeovers, threatens many SMEs, weakening the local economic fabric. Employee ownership, through collective transfers to employees, appears to be a relevant solution, enabling employees to buy out their company together. Despite its potential, collective transfers to employees are struggling to develop in French SMEs. Specific schemes such as the FCPE de reprise or the SCOP d'amorçage exist, but their implementation has often ended in failure, in contrast to international models such as the ESOP plan in the United States. This raises the question of the obstacles and levers to the development of employee ownership in French SMEs, as part of a collective transfer to employees. To answer this question, our research is based on an exploratory qualitative study of interviews with experts. This article highlights the obstacles and levers influencing the development of collective transfers of SMEs to employees, both in terms of existing schemes in France, such as the FCPE de reprise and the SCOP d'amorçage, and in terms of more structural dynamics on a national scale. Lastly, it suggests possible reforms to enhance the effectiveness and spread of the FCPE de reprise, with a view to conceiving the company as a social institution. |
| Abstract: | La survie à long terme des PME françaises constitue un enjeu économique et social majeur. Le vieillissement des dirigeants, conjugué à la baisse du nombre de reprises d'entreprises, menace de nombreuses PME et fragilise le tissu économique local. L'actionnariat salarié, à travers les transmissions collectives aux salariés, apparaît comme une solution pertinente, permettant aux employés de racheter collectivement leur entreprise. Malgré ce potentiel, les transmissions collectives aux salariés peinent à se développer dans les PME françaises. Des dispositifs spécifiques tels que le FCPE de reprise ou la SCOP d'amorçage existent, mais leur mise en œuvre s'est souvent soldée par des échecs, contrairement à des modèles internationaux comme le plan ESOP aux États-Unis. Cela soulève la question des obstacles et des leviers au développement de l'actionnariat salarié dans les PME françaises, dans le cadre de transmissions collectives aux salariés. Pour y répondre, notre recherche repose sur une étude qualitative exploratoire fondée sur des entretiens avec des experts. Cet article met en lumière les obstacles et leviers qui influencent le développement des transmissions collectives de PME aux salariés, tant en ce qui concerne les dispositifs existants en France, tels que le FCPE de reprise et la SCOP d'amorçage, qu'en ce qui concerne des dynamiques plus structurelles à l'échelle nationale. Enfin, il propose des pistes de réforme pour renforcer l'efficacité et la diffusion du FCPE de reprise, dans une perspective de refondation de l'entreprise en tant qu'institution sociale. |
| Keywords: | social institution, SME, collective transfer to employees, FCPE de reprise, employee buyout, employee stock ownership, employee ownership, capital concentration, responsible governance, economic sustainability, SCOP d'amorçage, employee ownership employee stock ownership employee buyout collective transfer to employees SME ESOP EOT SCOP cooperative responsible governance social institution economic sustainability wealth redistribution capital concentration economic inequality employee savings gift theory SCOP d'amorçage FCPE de reprise, cooperative, EOT, ESOP, SCOP d’amorçage, gift theory, employee savings, economic inequality, wealth redistribution, SCOP, rachat par les salariés, actionnariat salarié, transmission collective aux salariés, PME, coopérative, reprise entreprise, gouvernance responsable, institution sociale, durabilité économique, redistribution de la richesse, concentration du capital, partage de la valeur, inégalités économiques, épargne salariale, théorie du don |
| Date: | 2025–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05292818 |
| By: | Nabila El Boukhari (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Mounia Filali (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence represents a transformative force in Human Resource Management (HRM), capable of helping Moroccan companies reach a new frontier of operational efficiency, data-driven decision-making, and employee experience. However, its potential is currently constrained by limited investment resources and, potentially, by cultural realities. This integrative review aims to synthesize the state of the art by combining narrative and conceptual perspectives. The significance of our study lies in the need to mobilize theoretical frameworks such as the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), the Diffusion of Innovations Theory, and the Resource-Based View (RBV) to describe the drivers and barriers to AI integration in HRM in Morocco. If achieved, this will pave the way for Moroccan organizations to fully leverage AI in HR functions, including recruitment, training, and performance management. The study provides a framework for companies considering the adoption of AI within their HR departments. It sheds light on the main enablers and obstacles of AI adoption, offering recommendations to mitigate challenges such as resistance to change and inadequate skills. For instance, the study advocates training initiatives to equip HR professionals with the necessary competencies, as well as the establishment of digital infrastructures to effectively support AI systems. Finally, the paper emphasizes that AI must be deployed responsibly, including the development of guidelines to prevent algorithmic bias and safeguard private data. |
| Abstract: | Les auteurs n'ont pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude et ils sont responsables de tout plagiat dans cet article. Conflit d'intérêts :Les auteurs ne signalent aucun conflit d'intérêts. Citer cet articleEL BOUKHARI, N., & FILALI, M. (2025). Perspective de l'intelligence artificielle sur la gestion des ressources humaines : Un accélérateur de transformation et de performance dans les entreprises marocaines. |
| Keywords: | Intelligence Artificielle, gestion des ressources humaines, IA, GRH, performance opérationnelle, Organisation marocaine. JEL Classification : O15 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Artificial Intelligence, Human Resource Management, Operational Performance. Classification JEL: O15. Paper type: Theoretical Research, Intelligence Artificielle gestion des ressources humaines IA GRH performance opérationnelle Organisation marocaine. JEL Classification : O15 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Artificial Intelligence Human Resource Management IA GRH Operational Performance. Classification JEL: O15. Paper type: Theoretical Research |
| Date: | 2025–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05243494 |
| By: | Zahniser, Steven; Castillo, Marcelo; Simnitt, Skyler |
| Abstract: | USDAʼs Census of Agriculture, conducted every 5 years, collects data on farm labor expenses, with details for both contract and hired labor by agricultural industry, location, and farm size (as measured by sales). These data, when adjusted for inflation, reveal that total farm labor expenses, production expenses, and sales of agricultural products all increased in real terms from 1997 to 2022. Two measures of labor intensity, the ratio of labor expenses to total production expenses (labor-to-total-expenses) and the ratio of labor expenses to total agricultural sales (labor-to-sales), showed no clear upward or downward trend at the national level during this period. However, consistent with other evidence of a recent tightening of farm labor markets, between 2012 and 2022 the labor-to-total-expenses ratio increased overall and in virtually all industries, particularly those where the ratio was initially high. The increase in the labor-to-sales ratio was more muted nationally, but the change in this ratio varied more across industries. The increase in this ratio was particularly large (more than 5 percentage points) for two industries: tobacco and fruit and tree nuts. Otherwise, the distribution of labor expenses by industry, U.S. State, and farm size changed relatively little over the past several Censuses. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Dairy Farming, Labor and Human Capital, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:373314 |
| By: | Amit Khandelwal |
| Abstract: | In a fracturing world, how can low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) continue to leverage trade for economic development? Drawing on recent research at this intersection, this review argues that countries should look inward toward domestic reforms in key factor markets. I review evidence on how trade in LMICs is shaped by frictions in labor, capital, material, land, and information markets, and highlight areas where the evidence base remains thin. I concluded with a discussion of vertical policies relevant for LMICs—particularly the role of services—and suggest areas where further research is needed to assess whether development can be service-led. |
| JEL: | F1 O10 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34333 |
| By: | Arnold-Keifer, Sonja; Barkhausen, Robin; Berger, Frederic; Hillenbrand, Thomas; Liesenhoff, Fabian; Niederste-Hollenberg, Jutta; Sánchez González, Rodrigo |
| Abstract: | This report investigates relationships between the water and electricity sectors, emphasizing their shared challenges in the context of climate change and urbanization. As both sectors are crucial for modern society, their evolution towards sustainability is increasingly vital. The report begins with a historical overview of each sector, illustrating how the electricity sector has pioneered innovative approaches that can inform the water sector's transition. The analysis identifies three key concepts - smart meters and dynamic pricing schemes, legal instruments such as cap-and-trade schemes, and extended sector coupling - that have proven effective in the electricity sector and evaluates their potential applicability to the water sector. Smart meters, which enable real-time monitoring and efficient demand management, could enhance water usage efficiency, while dynamic pricing models could incentivize conservation behaviours. Additionally, the exploration of legal instruments like cap-and-trade schemes may provide new frameworks for managing water resources more effectively. The report also discusses the potential for extended sector coupling, where the integration of water and energy systems can optimize resource use and improve resilience. This approach highlights the importance of viewing water not just as a utility, but as a resource that can contribute to energy management and sustainability. Despite the opportunities for innovation, the report acknowledges the challenges faced by the water sector, including its regulatory constraints and the fragmented nature of its market. These factors contribute to a slower adoption of new technologies compared to the electricity sector. However, the potential benefits of adapting successful strategies from the electricity sector are significant, with implications for resource management, regulatory compliance, and system integration. In conclusion, the report advocates for further research and pilot projects to explore the feasibility and impact of these concepts within the water sector. By leveraging lessons learned from the electricity sector, stakeholders can enhance the resilience, efficiency, and sustainability of water systems, ultimately contributing to a more sustainable future for both sectors. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:328002 |
| By: | Vladimir Asriyan; Alexandre Kohlhas |
| Abstract: | We document a substantial rise in the accuracy of U.S. firms' expectations since the early 2000s, closely linked to firm-size dynamics and consistent with major advances in data-processing technologies. To study the macroeconomic implications, we develop a model of information production, in which information enables firms to optimize their scale, product choice, and pricing strategies. While information enhances the efficiency of resource allocation, it also facilitates price discrimination. The laissez-faire equilibrium is inefficient, warrants corrective policy interventions, and advances in data-processing technologies have ambiguous effects on social welfare. Calibrating our model to U.S. firm-level data, we find that data-processing advances have significantly increased TFP over the past two decades (5.3-6.7%), primarily by helping firms determine their optimal scale. Yet, the welfare benefits of these improvements have been modest (0.1-2.1%). Restricting data use, especially by large firms, could trigger larger welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | data economy, expectations, information frictions, product choice, price discrimination, rent extraction, misallocation, optimal policy, data regulation |
| JEL: | E10 E60 C53 D83 D84 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1904 |
| By: | Takaaki Koike |
| Abstract: | Dependence among multiple lifetimes is a key factor for pricing and evaluating the risk of joint life insurance products. The dependence structure can be exposed to model uncertainty when available data and information are limited. We address robust pricing and risk evaluation of joint life insurance products against dependence uncertainty among lifetimes. We first show that, for some class of standard contracts, the risk evaluation based on distortion risk measure is monotone with respect to the concordance order of the underlying copula. Based on this monotonicity, we then study the most conservative and anti-conservative risk evaluations for this class of contracts. We prove that the bounds for the mean, Value-at-Risk and Expected shortfall are computed by a combination of linear programs when the uncertainty set is defined by some norm-ball centered around a reference copula. Our numerical analysis reveals that the sensitivity of the risk evaluation against the choice of the copula differs depending on the risk measure and the type of the contract, and our proposed bounds can improve the existing bounds based on the available information. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.01971 |
| By: | Peiyun Jiang; Takashi Yamagata |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a novel bootstrap algorithm that is more efficient than existing methods for approximating the distribution of the factor-augmented regression estimator for a rotated parameter vector. The regression is augmented by $r$ factors extracted from a large panel of $N$ variables observed over $T$ time periods. We consider general weak factor (WF) models with $r$ signal eigenvalues that may diverge at different rates, $N^{\alpha _{k}}$, where $0 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.00947 |
| By: | Eissler, Sarah; Rubin, Deborah; de Anda, Victoria |
| Abstract: | This study presents findings from a qualitative research study conducted in Chiapas, Mexico that is one component of a larger activity funded by the Walmart Foundation and implemented by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), titled Applying New Evidence for Women’s Empowerment (ANEW). ANEW seeks to generate evidence from mixed-methods evaluations of women’s empowerment in production and other entrepreneurial efforts at different nodes of agricultural value chains and aims to develop and validate measures of women’s empowerment that focus on agricultural marketing and collective empowerment at the group level, both of which build upon the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index for Market Inclusion (pro-WEAI+MI). In this report, we present findings of a qualitative study of coffee cooperatives supported by Root Capital in Chiapas, Mexico and how Root Capital engages with them to advance women’s economic empowerment, among other objectives. As part of this study, we aimed to describe the gender dynamics and roles and responsibilities of men and women in the coffee value chain in Chiapas, and the opportunities and barriers faced as a result of these dynamics. This study employed qualitative methods to collect primary data from types of respondents using individual and group interviews. Two coffee cooperatives in Chiapas that work with Root Capital were selected to participate in this study. From June to July 2023, 21 individual interviews and 9 group interviews were conducted with market actors, men and women coffee cooperative leaders, men and women cooperative members and their wives, and Root Capital staff from two municipalities in Chiapas. The data were transcribed into Spanish and then translated into English. These transcripts were analyzed using thematic analysis in NVivo software. A codebook inclusive of inductive and deductive themes was developed to guide the thematic analysis. This study design adhered to best practices for ethical research and received approval from IFPRI’s IRB. Several limitations should be considered when reviewing the findings and conclusions of this study. There exist defined gender roles and divisions of labor at each node of the coffee value chain in Chiapas, and participants often described these roles as expected given social norms or perceived gender-specific limitations of natural abilities that would shape how men or women could engage in different activities. Men and women indicated that while men are in charge of coffee production activities, women do spend time contributing to cleaning and management activities, and that women are heavily involved in the coffee harvest. Both men and women explained that women are responsible for processing activities, which can be time consuming and laborious, but often occur close to the home. Although the coffee harvest activities require physical labor in picking and carrying the baskets of ripened cherries, there is a perception that women cannot participate in other post-harvesting activities, such as transporting bags of coffee, because the lifting is too physically heavy of a task for women. Men are responsible for managing the sale of coffee and directly negotiating with the buyer to the extent that a negotiation happens. In instances when buyers travel to the household as the point of sale, women can participate in sales, typically facilitating the sale under the direction of her husband. However, women still do not lift the coffee bags nor transport the bags for sale. And many coffee producing households prefer to or sometimes need to hire labor to help with coffee harvest activities; they tend to hire men as laborers more out of preference or their availability compared to women. Men and women interviewed for this study also described their perceptions and understanding of empowerment and elements of an empowered person with relation to engaging in the coffee value chain. Overall, while the concept of an empowered person was difficult for both men and women to relate to, they shared perceptions of how relations between men and women had changed over the years. Respecting women’s rights or the perception of respecting women’s rights was more acknowledged at the time of the interviews than in previous years, and it was more common to see men and women both generating incomes for the household. Men and women shared different perspectives regarding attitudes toward intimate partner violence, whereas both acknowledged men often mistreated their wives, but women discussed it as a private matter where men shared concerns over women’s reaction to the mistreatment rather than the mistreatment itself. Varying access to resources limited both men and women farmer’s ability to advance in the coffee value chain, particularly access to credit, which was limited for both men and women in the study areas. Limited access to credit with favorable or reasonable terms limited men’s and women’s ability to hire additional labor on their coffee farm or to purchase machines that would reduce specifically women’s time burdens within the household. Women’s time use is constrained by expectations and normative tasks in ways that men are not constrained. Future research is needed and discussed to better understand these dynamics of gendered roles and relations and elements of empowerment in the coffee value chain in Chiapas. Men and women members of the two respective cooperatives shared differences in how they were able to participate in and benefit from their participation in each cooperative. One cooperative provided more opportunities for members to directly engage in meetings, social activities, and capacity building opportunities whereas the other operated through a more decentralized structure and did not offer opportunities for members to directly participate in decision-making or meetings beyond the representation of their delegate. Members of both cooperatives perceived their cooperatives to be consistent and reliable coffee buyers offering stable prices. The former cooperative was also perceived as a source of support and community for members to advance their coffee production and post-harvesting activities. Both cooperatives also addressed key barriers faced by members, such as providing consistent and reliable pricing. Some members reported that cooperatives offered higher prices than those offered by non-cooperative buyers. Cooperatives also provided transportation options for producers to sell their coffee, which also enables women to have more engagement in coffee sales. However, normative barriers, such as women’s existing time burdens and their need for their husbands’ permission, limits women’s full participation in the cooperatives. Finally, we explored the extent to which Root Capital’s engagement with the cooperatives had supported activities or changes that strengthen women’s empowerment by understanding members and leaders’ perceptions of this engagement. Overall, cooperative members were generally unaware of Root Capital and its engagement with the cooperative. Since Root Capital does not provide direct services to farmers or cooperative members, it was not surprising that many cooperative members were generally unaware of Root Capital and its engagement with the cooperative. However, a few were aware of Root Capital, knowing it had provided their cooperative a loan to purchase and maintain a truck, which was used to reduce barriers faced by producers to bring their coffee to the point of sale and had implications for shifting gender roles to manage coffee sales. Cooperative leaders reflected on the loan that facilitated increased transportation capacity, as well as other benefits from working with Root Capital. However, as Root Capital operates with a client-driven approach, adoption of the Gender Equity Advisory services was limited as these services only became recently available in 2021 and cooperatives opted not to prioritize these until 2023. Therefore, there was limited data to understand how these activities may be influencing cooperative operations, gender dynamics and roles, and perception of women engaged in the coffee value chain at the time of this study. We present several recommendations for areas of future research and considerations for Root Capital to strengthen its approach to gender equity programming. |
| Keywords: | coffee; cooperatives; research methods; value chains; women’s empowerment; gender; collective behaviour; qualitative analysis; Mexico; Americas; Northern America |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140749 |
| By: | Katherine Rittenhouse; David Simon; Lindsey Lacey |
| Abstract: | Over one third of children in the U.S. are investigated by the child protection system (CPS) by age 18, but the effects of this interaction on families and children are largely unknown. Investigations aim to protect children from harm and direct services to families in need. However, they also bring the implicit threat of child removal, which can generate both stress and institutional distrust among affected families. Using a regression discontinuity design, we study the impacts of this interaction on child health. Children who are just above the threshold for being “defaulted” into an investigation see a reduction in injuries and an increase in preventative care in the two months following the referral. Effects are consistent across child gender, race and age. Finally, investigations increase the likelihood that a parent is jailed, suggesting that investigations also detect criminal activity within the home. An exploration of mechanisms suggests that it is the investigation, rather than home removal or parental criminal justice system involvement, which improves child health. |
| JEL: | I1 I30 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34334 |
| By: | Pierre Quesson (Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres); Cédric Dalmasso (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Laure Muselli (SES - Département Sciences économiques et sociales - LTCI - Laboratoire Traitement et Communication de l'Information - Télécom ParisTech - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Digital transformation of organizations represents a complex and uncertain organizational change, in which emotional stakes and emotion management processes are essential to understand. We position our work within the theoretical framework of emotion regulation in the context of change, aiming to identify the factors that explain its effectiveness. Drawing on a case study of the transformation of a large French industrial company, we analyze the emotion regulation efforts initiated within the organization, involving multiple groups of actors, and how these efforts are received by operational teams in light of their lived experiences of change. We identify two key factors influencing the effectiveness of emotion regulation, expressed in terms of distance between actors: the distance in interests—whether oriented toward change or continuity—and the distance from operational roles. The concept of Temporal-Occupational Distance emerges as a moderator of emotion regulation efforts in organizations, contributing to the distribution of roles among different actor groups within such initiatives. |
| Abstract: | La transformation digitale des organisations représente un changement organisationnel complexe et incertain dans lequel les enjeux émotionnels et les processus de gestion des émotions apparaissent essentiels à comprendre. Nous nous inscrivons dans le champ théorique de la régulation émotionnelle en contexte de changement afin de comprendre les facteurs expliquant son efficacité. En mobilisant un cas de transformation d'une grande entreprise industrielle française, nous analysons les efforts de régulation émotionnelle initiés au sein de l'organisation mettant en jeu plusieurs groupes d'acteurs et leur réception par les métiers opérationnels, à l'aune de leurs expériences vécues du changement. Nous trouvons deux facteurs intervenant sur l'efficacité de la régulation émotionnelle s'exprimant en termes de distance entre acteurs, la distance entre l'intérêt des acteurs, orientés vers le changement ou la continuité de l'activité, et la distance aux métiers. La notion de Distance Temporalité -Métier émerge comme modérateur des efforts de régulation émotionnelle dans les organisations, et contribue à distribuer la place des différents groupes d'acteurs dans de tels dispositifs. |
| Keywords: | organizational change, digital transformation, emotions, emotion regulation, lived experiences, changement organisationnel, transformation digitale, émotions, régulation émotionnelle, expériences vécues |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05249526 |
| By: | Mark Paddrik; Carlos Ramirez |
| Abstract: | Contrary to the belief that overnight Treasury tri-party repo prices are uniform, there is significant variation across market participants (Working Paper no. 25-07). |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:wpaper:25-07 |
| By: | Shota Ichihashi (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, ON, Canada) |
| Abstract: | I study a model of platform-enabled algorithmic pricing. Sellers offer identical products, to which consumers have heterogeneous values. Sellers can post a uniform price outside the platform or join the platform and delegate their pricing decision to the platform's algorithm. I show that the platform can offer a pricing algorithm to attract sellers, stifle off-platform competition, and earn a positive profit. Prohibiting the platform from using consumer data for its algorithm increases consumer surplus but decreases total surplus. A transparency requirement, which mandates the platform to share its data and algorithms with sellers, restores the first-best outcome for consumers. |
| Keywords: | price discrimination, algorithmic pricing, competition, collusion, algorithm |
| JEL: | D43 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:2503 |
| By: | Hidrobo, Melissa; Peterman, Amber; Kumar, Neha; Lambon-Quayefio, Monica; Roy, Shalini; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Paz, Florencia |
| Abstract: | Gender considerations in the design and delivery of social protection programs are critical to meet overall objectives of reducing poverty and vulnerability. We provide an overview of the policy discourse and research on social protection and gender in low- and middle-income countries, focusing on social assistance, social care, and social insurance. Taking a ‘review of reviews’ approach, we aggregate findings from rigorous evaluations on women's health, economic, empowerment, and violence impacts. We show there is robust evidence that social assistance has beneficial effects across all four domains. In addition, there is emerging evidence that social care has positive impacts on women’s economic outcomes, but scarce evidence of its impacts on other domains. Aggregated evidence on the impacts of social insurance are lacking. Key design elements facilitating positive impacts for women relate to gender targeting; quality complementary programming; replacing conditionalities with soft nudges; ensuring the value, frequency, and duration of benefits are sufficient; and gender-sensitive operational components. We close with a discussion of evidence gaps and priorities for future research. |
| Keywords: | gender; poverty; social protection; vulnerability; women's empowerment |
| Date: | 2024–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:144240 |
| By: | D\'avid Csercsik; Mih\'aly Andr\'as V\'aghy |
| Abstract: | In a recent publication, using a simple two-period model, which is already capable to capture essential non-convex multiperiod bids, Richstein et al. have shown that in the case of optimal bidding, multi-part bidding always ensures a higher expected profit for the bidder, compared to simple bidding and block-bidding. The model proposed in their analysis assumes a uniform distribution of the market-clearing prices in both periods. In this paper, we study how the conclusions of the analysis are affected, if a very simple, symmetric, stepwise-constant but non-uniform distribution is assumed in the case of the market-clearing price. We show that the results of Richstein et al. also hold in this case. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.07025 |
| By: | Luca Lazzaro; Manuel S. Mariani; Ren\'e Algesheimer; Radu Tanase |
| Abstract: | Faced with uncertainty in decision making, individuals often turn to their social networks to inform their decisions. In consequence, these networks become central to how new products and behaviors spread. A key structural feature of networks is the presence of long ties, which connect individuals who share few mutual contacts. Under what conditions do long ties facilitate or hinder diffusion? The literature provides conflicting results, largely due to differing assumptions about individual decision-making. We reinvestigate the role of long ties by experimentally measuring adoption decisions under social influence for products with uncertain payoffs and embedding these decisions in network simulations. At the individual level, we find that higher payoff uncertainty increases the average reliance on social influence. However, personal traits such as risk preferences and attitudes toward uncertainty lead to substantial heterogeneity in how individuals respond to social influence. At the collective level, the observed individual heterogeneity ensures that long ties consistently promote diffusion, but their positive effect weakens as uncertainty increases. Our results reveal that the effect of long ties is not determined by whether the aggregate process is a simple or complex contagion, but by the extent of heterogeneity in how individuals respond to social influence. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.04785 |
| By: | Jian'an Zhang |
| Abstract: | We introduce Tail-Safe, a deployability-oriented framework for derivatives hedging that unifies distributional, risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with a white-box control-barrier-function (CBF) quadratic-program (QP) safety layer tailored to financial constraints. The learning component combines an IQN-based distributional critic with a CVaR objective (IQN--CVaR--PPO) and a Tail-Coverage Controller that regulates quantile sampling through temperature tilting and tail boosting to stabilize small-$\alpha$ estimation. The safety component enforces discrete-time CBF inequalities together with domain-specific constraints -- ellipsoidal no-trade bands, box and rate limits, and a sign-consistency gate -- solved as a convex QP whose telemetry (active sets, tightness, rate utilization, gate scores, slack, and solver status) forms an auditable trail for governance. We provide guarantees of robust forward invariance of the safe set under bounded model mismatch, a minimal-deviation projection interpretation of the QP, a KL-to-DRO upper bound linking per-state KL regularization to worst-case CVaR, concentration and sample-complexity results for the temperature-tilted CVaR estimator, and a CVaR trust-region improvement inequality under KL limits, together with feasibility persistence under expiry-aware tightening. Empirically, in arbitrage-free, microstructure-aware synthetic markets (SSVI $\to$ Dupire $\to$ VIX with ABIDES/MockLOB execution), Tail-Safe improves left-tail risk without degrading central performance and yields zero hard-constraint violations whenever the QP is feasible with zero slack. Telemetry is mapped to governance dashboards and incident workflows to support explainability and auditability. Limitations include reliance on synthetic data and simplified execution to isolate methodological contributions. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.04555 |
| By: | Sid Ghatak; Arman Khaledian; Navid Parvini; Nariman Khaledian |
| Abstract: | There are inefficiencies in financial markets, with unexploited patterns in price, volume, and cross-sectional relationships. While many approaches use large-scale transformers, we take a domain-focused path: feed-forward and recurrent networks with curated features to capture subtle regularities in noisy financial data. This smaller-footprint design is computationally lean and reliable under low signal-to-noise, crucial for daily production at scale. At Increase Alpha, we built a deep-learning framework that maps over 800 U.S. equities into daily directional signals with minimal computational overhead. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we outline the general overview of the predictive model without disclosing its core underlying concepts. Second, we evaluate its real-time performance through transparent, industry standard metrics. Forecast accuracy is benchmarked against both naive baselines and macro indicators. The performance outcomes are summarized via cumulative returns, annualized Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown. The best portfolio combination using our signals provides a low-risk, continuous stream of returns with a Sharpe ratio of more than 2.5, maximum drawdown of around 3\%, and a near-zero correlation with the S\&P 500 market benchmark. We also compare the model's performance through different market regimes, such as the recent volatile movements of the US equity market in the beginning of 2025. Our analysis showcases the robustness of the model and significantly stable performance during these volatile periods. Collectively, these findings show that market inefficiencies can be systematically harvested with modest computational overhead if the right variables are considered. This report will emphasize the potential of traditional deep learning frameworks for generating an AI-driven edge in the financial market. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.16707 |
| By: | Ariong, Richard M.; Chamberlin, Jordan; Kariuki, Sarah Wairimu; Van Campenhout, Bjorn |
| Abstract: | Quality upgrading may be lagging in value chains where the assessment and traceability of the quality of the underlying commodity is challenging. In Uganda's southwestern milk shed, a variety of initiatives are trying to increase the quality of raw milk in dairy value chains. These initiatives generally involve the introduction of technologies that enable measurement of key quality parameters at strategic nodes in the value chain, in conjunction with a system that allows for tracking of these parameters throughout the supply chain. In this paper, we use a combination of focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and quantitative data that is generated by these initiatives to document outputs, describe emerging outcomes, and reflect on the potential impact. We find clear evidence that milk quality improved, but the effects on milk prices are more subtle. |
| Keywords: | dairy value chains; raw milk; research methods; technology; Uganda; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:149239 |
| By: | Zorbas, Christina; Resnick, Danielle; Jones, Eleanor; Suri, Shoba; Iruhiriye, Elyse; Headey, Derek D.; Martin, Will; Vos, Rob; Arndt, Channing; Menon, Purnima |
| Abstract: | Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2), Zero Hunger, by 2030 is in jeopardy due to slowing and unequal economic growth, climate shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, conflict, lackluster efforts toward investing in food system sustainability and agricultural productivity growth, and persistent barriers to open food trade. Nevertheless, numerous commitments to achieving SDG 2 have been repeatedly expressed by Heads of State and Ministers at diverse global meetings since the SDGs became a focus in 2015. To identify the intensity and degree of convergence of commitments that national governments have collectively made to realizing SDG 2, this paper provides a qualitative assessment of statements from more than 68 global meetings and 107 intergovernmental commitment documents since 2015. Analyzing these commitments against seven critical factors necessary for impact at scale, we find that stated intentions to solve the global food security and hunger challenge have become more pronounced at global meetings over time, especially in the wake of the crises. However, the intent to act is not consistently matched by commitments to specific actions that could help accelerate reductions in hunger. For instance, while increased financing is often recognized as a priority to reach SDG 2, few commitments in global fora relate to detailed costing of required investments. Similarly, many commitment statements lack specificity regarding what and how policy interventions should be scaled up for greater action on SDG 2 or the ways to enhance different stakeholders’ capacities to implement them. While horizontal coherence was mentioned across most global fora, it was only present in about half of the commitment statements, with even less recognition of the necessity for vertical coherence from global to local levels. Despite global acknowledgement of the importance of accountability and monitoring, usually by way of progress reports, we find few consequences for governments that do not act on commitments made in global fora. We discuss the implications of these findings and offer recommendations for how to strengthen the commitment-making process to help accelerate actions that can reduce food insecurity and hunger and augment the legitimacy of global meetings. This work can inform the policy advocacy community focused on SDG 2 and those engaged in catalyzing and supporting intergovernmental action on other SDGs. Our findings reiterate the importance of attention to global governance and the political economy of global meetings—which is necessary to strengthen our focus on delivering outcomes that put the world on a path that brings the solution to the problems of global hunger and food insecurity within reach. |
| Keywords: | food security; diet; accountability; food policies; hunger; governance; nutrition |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:138946 |
| By: | Tatsuru Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a unified theoretical framework for detecting and estimating boundaries in treatment effects across both spatial and temporal dimensions. We formalize the concept of treatment effect boundaries as structural parameters characterizing regime transitions where causal effects cease to operate. Building on diffusion-based models of information propagation, we establish conditions under which spatial and temporal boundaries share common dynamics, derive identification results, and propose consistent estimators. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the performance of our methods under various data-generating processes. The framework provides tools for detecting when local treatments become systemic and identifying critical thresholds for policy intervention. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.00754 |
| By: | Dragan Filimonovic; Christian Rutzer; Conny Wunsch |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of Generative AI (GenAI) adoption on scientific productivity and quality in the social and behavioral sciences. Using matched author-level panel data and a difference-in-differences design, we find that GenAI adoption is associated with sizable increases in research productivity, measured by the number of published papers. It also leads to moderate gains in publication quality, based on journal impact factors. These effects are most pronounced among early-career researchers, authors working in technically complex subfields, and those from non-English-speaking countries. The results suggest that GenAI tools may help lower some structural barriers in academic publishing and promote more inclusive participation in research. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.02408 |
| By: | Anoushka Harit; Zhongtian Sun; Jongmin Yu |
| Abstract: | We propose the Causal Sphere Hypergraph Transformer (CSHT), a novel architecture for interpretable financial time-series forecasting that unifies \emph{Granger-causal hypergraph structure}, \emph{Riemannian geometry}, and \emph{causally masked Transformer attention}. CSHT models the directional influence of financial news and sentiment on asset returns by extracting multivariate Granger-causal dependencies, which are encoded as directional hyperedges on the surface of a hypersphere. Attention is constrained via angular masks that preserve both temporal directionality and geometric consistency. Evaluated on S\&P 500 data from 2018 to 2023, including the 2020 COVID-19 shock, CSHT consistently outperforms baselines across return prediction, regime classification, and top-asset ranking tasks. By enforcing predictive causal structure and embedding variables in a Riemannian manifold, CSHT delivers both \emph{robust generalisation across market regimes} and \emph{transparent attribution pathways} from macroeconomic events to stock-level responses. These results suggest that CSHT is a principled and practical solution for trustworthy financial forecasting under uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.04357 |
| By: | Karsten Reichold; Ulrike Schneider |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes new asymptotic results for the adaptive LASSO estimator in cointegrating regression models. We study model selection probabilities, estimator consistency, and limiting distributions under both standard and moving-parameter asymptotics. We also derive uniform convergence rates and the fastest local-to-zero rates that can still be detected by the estimator, complementing and extending the results of Lee, Shi, and Gao (2022, Journal of Econometrics, 229, 322--349). Our main findings include that under conservative tuning, the adaptive LASSO estimator is uniformly $T$-consistent and the cut-off rate for local-to-zero coefficients that can be detected by the procedure is $1/T$. Under consistent tuning, however, both rates are slower and depend on the tuning parameter. The theoretical results are complemented by a detailed simulation study showing that the finite-sample distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator deviates substantially from what is suggested by the oracle property, whereas the limiting distributions derived under moving-parameter asymptotics provide much more accurate approximations. Finally, we show that our results also extend to models with local-to-unit-root regressors and to predictive regressions with unit-root predictors. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.07204 |
| By: | Anas Abuzayed |
| Keywords: | Market value of renewables, subsidy-free electricity markets, renewable energy policy, energy-only markets, electricity market design |
| JEL: | Q41 D47 Q42 H23 Q47 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2521 |
| By: | Ritesh Jain; Michele Lombardi; Antonio Penta |
| Abstract: | We put forward a notion of implementation for Social Choice Functions (SCF) that is robust with respect to the solution concept used to model agents’ strategic interaction. Formally, we define implementation in Interim Correlated Rationalizability and its Refinements (ICRR implementation) as implementation in Interim Correlated Rationalizability (ICR), with the extra requirement that it be achieved by a mechanism in which all selections from ICR have the best-reply property. We provide a tight characterization in terms of a novel notion of monotonicity, Iterative Interim Monotonicity (IIM). Our condition relates the possibility of ICRR-implementation with a specific way in which the SCF is constrained by agents’ preference reversals. We provide several alternative formulations of IIM, that clarify both its connection with various parts of the literature (such as Oury and Tercieux (2012)’s Interim Rationalizable Monotonicity, and others), and the source of IIM’s ability to overcome several limitations of the previous conditions in the literature. |
| JEL: | C79 D82 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1893 |
| By: | Hainmueller, Jens; Marbach, Moritz; Hangartner, Dominik; Harder, Niklas; Vallizadeh, Ehsan |
| Abstract: | Governments continue to face challenges integrating refugees into the local labor market, and many past interventions have shown limited impact. This study examines the Job-Turbo program, a large-scale initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate employment among refugees—primarily individuals from Ukraine and eight other major countries of origin. Using monthly administrative panel data from Germany’s network of public employment service offices and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the program significantly increased both caseworker–refugee contact and job placements over a 23-month follow-up period. Among Ukrainian refugees, the exit-to-job rate nearly doubled. Effects were broad-based—spanning demographic subgroups, unemployment durations, skill levels, regions, and local labor-market conditions—and concentrated in regular, unsubsidized employment. The program also raised both the rate and share of sustained job placements, consistent with improved match quality. Other refugee groups saw meaningful gains as well, but increases in job placements were concentrated among males and in low-skilled jobs, with only limited effects for females. We detect no negative spillovers for German or other immigrant job seekers, finding no signs of either resource reallocation or displacement. The results offer insights for governments responding to displacement crises. They indicate that intensified job-search assistance---embedded within the early stage of integration and implemented at scale through public employment infrastructure---can meaningfully improve refugees' labor-market outcomes, even amid significant arrivals. |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:px9ew_v2 |
| By: | Yiming Zhang; Wolfgang Ridinger; David Wozabal |
| Abstract: | As renewable energy integration increases supply variability, battery energy storage systems (BESS) present a viable solution for balancing supply and demand. This paper proposes a novel approach for optimizing battery BESS participation in multiple electricity markets. We develop a joint bidding strategy that combines participation in the primary frequency reserve market with continuous trading in the intraday market, addressing a gap in the extant literature which typically considers these markets in isolation or simplifies the continuous nature of intraday trading. Our approach utilizes a mixed integer linear programming implementation of the rolling intrinsic algorithm for intraday decisions and state of charge recovery, alongside a learned classifier strategy (LCS) that determines optimal capacity allocation between markets. A comprehensive out-of-sample backtest over more than one year of historical German market data validates our approach: The LCS increases overall profits by over 4% compared to the best-performing static strategy and by more than 3% over a naive dynamic benchmark. Crucially, our method closes the gap to a theoretical perfect foresight strategy to just 4%, demonstrating the effectiveness of dynamic, learning-based allocation in a complex, multi-market environment. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.03209 |
| By: | Brendon Andrews (University of Alberta) |
| Abstract: | The homeopathic practice of diluting medications by factors of 100 raised to the power of 12, 30, or even higher is unscientific. Why might a healthcare provider choose to follow such a doctrine? This short article uses an economic model of provider behavior including altruism for patients to argue that both cost-reduction and well-meaning concern can explain the practice’s adoption in the early nineteenth century. Altruistic behavior consistent with high dilutions is predicted when undiluted treatment benefits are negative, even when homeopaths are overconfident and believe otherwise, and can reduce patient harm. Homeopathic practice choice is most attractive in this context to altruistic, steadily overconfident low-quality healthcare providers. Related modern treatment settings can be constructed which imply policy-relevant research directions. |
| Keywords: | Alternative Medicine; Altruism; Healthcare; Homeopathy; Provider Behavior |
| JEL: | I11 J44 N31 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:021640 |
| By: | Francesco Bianchi; Ms. Era Dabla-Norris; Salma Khalid |
| Abstract: | Utilizing surveys of over 27, 000 respondents from 13 advanced and emerging market economies, we explore how knowledge and beliefs about government debt influence expectations of tax and expenditure policy changes. Individuals systematically underestimate debt levels, especially in high-debt countries, and believe that the burden of fiscal adjustments will disproportionately affect them. Greater lifetime exposure to fiscal consolidation increases pessimism about future economic prospects, diminishes trust in government, and is associated with expectations of higher debt, future taxes increases and spending cuts, and inflation. Informing respondents about their country’s debt levels reduces expectations of tax increases in stable debt contexts and raises expectations of spending cuts in countries with rising debt with the influence of this information moderated by individuals’ past experiences with fiscal consolidation. |
| Keywords: | public debt; fiscal policy; lifetime experiences; behavioral economics |
| Date: | 2025–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/197 |
| By: | Yoontae Hwang; Stefan Zohren |
| Abstract: | Robust asset allocation is a key challenge in quantitative finance, where deep-learning forecasters often fail due to objective mismatch and error amplification. We introduce the Signature-Informed Transformer (SIT), a novel framework that learns end-to-end allocation policies by directly optimizing a risk-aware financial objective. SIT's core innovations include path signatures for a rich geometric representation of asset dynamics and a signature-augmented attention mechanism embedding financial inductive biases, like lead-lag effects, into the model. Evaluated on daily S\&P 100 equity data, SIT decisively outperforms traditional and deep-learning baselines, especially when compared to predict-then-optimize models. These results indicate that portfolio-aware objectives and geometry-aware inductive biases are essential for risk-aware capital allocation in machine-learning systems. The code is available at: https://github.com/Yoontae6719/Signature -Informed-Transformer-For-Asset-Allocati on |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.03129 |
| By: | Migrow, Dimitri (University of Edinburgh); Park, Hyungmin (University of Warwick); Squintani, Francesco (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We study a leader’s choice of advisors, balancing political alignment, informational competence, and diversity of views. The leader can consult one or two advisors : one is politically aligned but less informed or shares potentially redundant information; the other is better informed but more biased. The leader’s optimal strategy can exhibit reversals. If both advisors are initially consulted, increasing the bias of the more biased advisor may cause the leader to exclude the aligned advisor to preserve truthfulness from the informed one. As bias rises further, the leader ultimately replaces the informed advisor if his bias becomes too large. When the leader is uncertain about the bias of the more informed advisor, increasing the chance of alignment can justify consulting both advisors. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1582 |
| By: | Kyoji FUKAO; Takemasa MATSUO; Akihiro YOSHINO |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate how AI and robotics technologies will substitute for human-centered jobs and how the technologies will affect Japan’s industrial and employment structures in 2040. First, drawing primarily on Acemoglu’s series of papers, we constructed a theoretical model of firm production structures and occupation-specific labor demand. In doing so, we also took into account the reduction in AI and robotics prices resulting from technological innovation, as well as the relationship between firm size and technology adoption. Next, based on the industry-level estimates of the Automation Risk Index (ARI) for 2024, 2030, and 2040 provided by Fukao, Ikeuchi, Nagatani, Pergini, and Pompei (2025), we projected the industrial and employment structures in 2040. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25026 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | 2025 Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/284 |
| By: | Larabi Jaïdi |
| Abstract: | Les questions des inégalités sociales et des inégalités territoriales sont profondément liées. Les politiques publiques ne peuvent réduire l’une sans s’attaquer à l’autre. Le phénomène des inégalités peut s’accentuer avec la fragilité de la situation socio-économique de certains territoires d’autant que le développement territorial n’est pas spontanément équitable. La réduction de ces inégalités, un des enjeux majeurs des politiques publiques, oblige à construire en permanence de nouvelles approches du développement territorial au sein desquelles les ressources « construites » (savoir, compétences, organisations) prennent une importance relative accrue par rapport aux ressources « données » (terre, main-d’œuvre, capital). Il est donc indispensable, pour garantir la mise en œuvre des principes de la cohésion territoriale et de la cohésion sociale, de reconsidérer la logique qui préside à l’affectation des ressources publiques et de recourir aux mécanismes de solidarité entre les composantes du territoire national. La réflexion développée dans ce Policy Paper se concentre sur les politiques qui souffrent particulièrement de complexité, d’éclatement, et d’enchevêtrement : l’aménagement territorial, la décentralisation/déconcentration, le financement des territoires. Elle montre qu’une politique de cohésion socio-territoriale ne peut s’affranchir d’une analyse institutionnelle des politiques territoriales. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp32_25 |
| By: | Maria Gadea; Òscar Jordà |
| Abstract: | Bootstrap procedures for local projections typically rely on assuming that the data generating process (DGP) is a finite order vector autoregression (VAR), often taken to be that implied by the local projection at horizon 1. Although convenient, it is well documented that a VAR can be a poor approximation to impulse dynamics at horizons beyond its lag length. In this paper we assume instead that the precise form of the parametric model generating the data is not known. If one is willing to assume that the DGP is perhaps an infinite order process, a larger class of models can be accommodated and more tailored bootstrap procedures can be constructed. Using the moving average representation of the data, we construct appropriate bootstrap procedures. |
| Keywords: | local projections; inference |
| JEL: | C31 C32 |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:101873 |
| By: | Siddharth George; Mr. Divya Kirti; Nils Olle Herman Lange; Maria Soledad Martinez Peria; Rajesh Vijayaraghavan |
| Abstract: | We study how access to bank financing affects product innovation in a developing country context by analyzing a reform that broadened credit eligibility for many small Indian manufacturing firms. Newly eligible firms borrow more but, on average, do not introduce new or more complex products or expand product scope. Many firms appear to operate below efficient scale and use credit to expand existing product lines rather than innovate. Moreover, most firms face several additional barriers that weaken the impact of credit on innovation. Among firms that do not face these additional barriers, credit access boosts innovation, as in advanced economies. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; SMEs; financial frictions; market barriers |
| Date: | 2025–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/192 |