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on Investment |
| By: | Jorge Casanova; David Catalán; Florentino Felgueroso; Marcel Jansen |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of a sharp rise in the Spanish minimum wage on firm-level employment and worker flows. Our analysis uses a novel dataset of linked employer-employee data and exploits the variation in the share of workers of each establishment who were directly affected by the increase in the minimum wage using a difference-in-differences design. We find that the 22% minimum wage hike caused an increase in wage growth of approximately 11 percentage points and a reduction in employment growth of around 5 percentage points at establishments where all workers were affected relative to firms where no workers were affected, resulting in an own-wage elasticity of -0.39. The negative effects on employment are concentrated in small establishments with up to five employees, but we show that the minimum wage had much broader implications as it caused a simultaneous increase in inflows and worker outflows for affected establishments with up to 250 employees. The resulting increase in gross flows almost doubles the net effects on employment leading to a deterioration of job quality. We link these novel findings to the dual structure of the Spanish labor market. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2025-10 |
| By: | Sungjin Kim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In the second half of 2025 (H2 2025), the South Korean economy faces stiff headwinds, with macroeconomic factors worsening amid deepening policy uncertainties fueled by geopolitical developments. Among external factors, expanding investment in IT infrastructure across the world is the sole bright spot. Domestically, supply capacity is set to grow slightly, primarily in advanced industries and promising sectors, and investments in the digital transformation (DX) and green transformation (GX) are expected to continue apace. Korean firms are also poised to continue offshoring production to offset rising costs of producing and exporting goods at home, domestic firms’ overseas supply chains and production networks are going to keep evolving.<p> Overall, despite increased uncertainty stemming from tariffs and a more aggressively protectionist US trade stance, improved IT demand is expected to drive expanded production and exports of ICT devices, semiconductors, and displays. And while the bio-tech and shipbuilding industries could hit a rough patch H2, overall they will have grown in 2025. |
| Keywords: | economic outlook; macroeconomic outlook; industrial outlook; industrial performance; production; aut |
| JEL: | E60 E66 L52 |
| Date: | 2025–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:021417 |
| By: | Yeolyong Sung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | This report first examines the international presence of South Korea’s design industry, based on official statistical data compiled by KIDP. It then assesses how digital transformation — an overarching force reshaping the economy — is influencing the operational and transactional environment of the design industry, using evidence from a firm-level survey conducted by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET). Through this review, the study aims to examine whether digital transformation could serve as a key driver for strengthening the global competitiveness and export performance of Korea’s design sector. |
| Keywords: | design; design industry; service industry; B2B services; business-to-business; B2B; digitalization; |
| JEL: | L81 L84 |
| Date: | 2025–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:021420 |
| By: | Papps, Kerry L. (University of Bradford) |
| Abstract: | The effects on criminal behaviour of raising the minimum wage for those aged 25 and over in the United Kingdom are analysed, using data on police stop and search activities. A 1% increase in the minimum wage raises the fraction of people stopped by the police by 2.96%, the fraction of people caught with an incriminating item by 1.43%, and the fraction of people arrested as a consequence by 1.27%. This effect is almost entirely driven by drug searches made outside business hours, suggesting that the minimum wage raises crime principally by raising disposable income – and drug consumption – among workers. |
| Keywords: | stop and search, crime, minimum wage |
| JEL: | K42 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17989 |
| By: | Beatrice Intoppa (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier); Élodie Valette (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Worldwide, there is growing interest among policymakers, funders, and researchers in monitoring and assessing innovations in food system sustainability. However, the evaluation of innovations' contributions to broader sustainability targets is undermined by stakeholders' multiple interpretations of sustainability, the difficulty of transferability across scales, and the scarce resources available for assessment. Moreover, city-scale initiatives identify needs and knowledge that has not yet been integrated into urban strategies. These gaps make it difficult for innovators to report on their role in a national or global system and to gain the trust of communities and institutions. Given the reflexive knowledge produced through the application of the Urbal method, which proposes a qualitative, context-based, and participatory evaluation of food innovations, this chapter considers whether and how Urbal can provide a preliminary framework to support innovators in designing or strengthening quantitative impact assessments and to help them orient their work within the regulatory space of sustainable food systems. In particular, the chapter presents a tool to co-construct a framework, together with innovators, which can help shape or strengthen the evaluation of their project. |
| Date: | 2023–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04702673 |
| By: | Vincent Meisner (HU Berlin); Pascal Pillath (HU Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We design profit-maximizing mechanisms to sell an excludable and non-rival good with positive and/or negative network effects. Buyers have heterogeneous private values that depend on how many others also consume the good. In optimum, an endogenous number of the highest types consume the good, and we can implement this allocation in dominant strategies. We apply our insights to digital content creation, and we are able to rationalize features seen in monetization schemes in this industry such as voluntary contributions, community subsidies, and exclusivity bids. |
| Keywords: | mechanism design; non-rival goods; club goods; network effects; digital content; creator economy; |
| JEL: | D82 |
| Date: | 2025–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:541 |
| By: | Guillaume Denos (IAE Angers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Angers - UA - Université d'Angers, GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Ce document explore le concept d'innovation sociale, allant au-delà d'une simple définition pour analyser ses multiples facettes et son ancrage contextuel. L'auteur propose de considérer l'innovation sociale non pas comme un projet unique, mais à travers des espaces de production et de croisement d'éléments innovants, appelés Espaces Socialement Innovants (ESI). Il identifie cinq angles d'analyse principaux pour comprendre la complexité de ces innovations : la prise en compte de nouveaux besoins, l'arrangement institutionnel et territorial, les processus d'hybridation organisationnelle, les actions managériales des innovateurs, et les effets sociaux produits. Le document utilise le cas de "La Cocotte Solidaire" comme illustration empirique pour appuyer cette approche plurielle, soulignant comment cette association crée des transformations, même minimes, qui participent à un objectif sociopolitique plus large. |
| Keywords: | Innovation sociale, ESS |
| Date: | 2023–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05146765 |
| By: | Vortisch, Andreas B. (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Paschalidis, Evangelos (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne); Beine, Michel (University of Luxembourg, IZA, and CES-ifo); Bierlaire, Michel (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | "On 5 September 2015, the German government suspended the EU’s Dublin III regulations, allowing all asylum seekers to apply for asylum in Germany. This policy change motivated more than one million people, especially Syrians, Afghans, and Iraqis, to enter the country. This study examines the impact of this policy change on migration aspirations and actions in 11 Arab countries, assessing whether it increased migration pressure toward Germany. We find that while the policy raised migration aspirations, it did not significantly affect concrete migration plans and therefore immigration pressures. Instead, age and personal networks abroad play more decisive roles in shaping such plans. Additionally, territorial control by IS in certain regions served as a distinct push factor. We also analyze migration preparations and find that age and networks abroad remain key determinants. Our results also suggest that the policy may have altered the composition of those planning to migrate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | C25 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202510 |
| By: | Marcell T. Kurbucz; Nikolaos Tzivanakis; Nilufer Sari Aslam; Adam M. Sykulski |
| Abstract: | Capturing nonlinear relationships without sacrificing interpretability remains a persistent challenge in regression modeling. We introduce SplitWise, a novel framework that enhances stepwise regression. It adaptively transforms numeric predictors into threshold-based binary features using shallow decision trees, but only when such transformations improve model fit, as assessed by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). This approach preserves the transparency of linear models while flexibly capturing nonlinear effects. Implemented as a user-friendly R package, SplitWise is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that it consistently produces more parsimonious and generalizable models than traditional stepwise and penalized regression techniques. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.15423 |
| By: | Alex Bryson (University College London); Ryo Kambayashi (Musashi University); Susumu Kuwahara (Reitaku University); Akie Nakamura (Rengo-RIALS); Jacques Wels (Université libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | Official government estimates show a gradual decline in union density in Japan over several decades akin to that in other countries with decentralized bargaining structures. However, new evidence from various social surveys indicates that union density has been rising in Japan. Using one of these social surveys – the Survey on the Work and Life of Workers (SWLW) – we show union density has risen by 7.3 percentage points to 29.1% in the Japanese private sector between 2011/13 and 2020/24. We decompose the growth in union density since 2011/13 to establish how much of it is attributable to changes in workforce composition. Conditioning on union presence at the workplace, compositional change accounts for 47% of the increase in union density. The remaining 53% is due to within-group change with unions increasing membership across all types of worker including some with traditionally low rates of unionization. However, establishing a union at the workplace remains key since virtually all the growth in union membership (97%) is in unionized workplaces. |
| Keywords: | unionization; union membership; union density; union presence; decomposition; Japan |
| JEL: | J51 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2529 |
| By: | Odhiambo, Frank; Günther, Isabel; Harttgen, Kenneth |
| Abstract: | In many parts of the world, children with disabilities continue to face exclusion from education. This educational disparity is particularly pronounced in African countries, where disability legislation is often absent. In our sample, disability emerges as the strongest predictor of low educational attainment among children-more influential than severe poverty or low parental education. Despite increasing international attention to inclusive education, evidence on the impact of anti-discrimination legislation remains limited, and particularly for low-income settings. Existing literature has primarily focused on labor market outcomes in high-income countries, where the effects on employment have been mixed at best. Using individual-level data from ten African countries, we apply various difference-in-differences approaches to assess the impact of disability legislation on educational attainment. Our analysis shows that such legislation significantly increases school enrollment, attendance rates, and years of schooling. In most countries, anti-discrimination laws close at least half of the 30% disability gap in education observed in contexts lacking such protections. Furthermore, we find no adverse spillover effects on the schooling of younger, non-disabled siblings in countries that enacted the legislation. These findings highlight the transformative potential of legal protections in advancing educational equity for children with disabilities. |
| Keywords: | educational attainment, school attendance, legislation, disability |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:323228 |
| By: | Bleses, Peter (Ed.); Ritter, Wolfgang (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | Das Verbundprojekt ressource erforscht und gestaltet Arbeitsbedingungen für Beschäftigte in Einfacharbeit, insbesondere in der Logistik und in gesundheitsbezogenen Dienstleistungen in der Region NordWest. Im Fokus des iaw-papers stehen systematische Bedarfs- und Anforderungsanalysen, die institutionelle, organisationale und individuelle Herausforderungen sowie vorhandene Ressourcen im Hinblick auf gesundheitsförderliche Arbeitsgestaltung und Kompetenzentwicklung erfassen. Methodisch setzt das Projekt auf einen reflexiv-iterativen Mixed-Methods-Ansatz, der qualitative und quantitative Verfahren kombiniert und partizipativ angelegt ist. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine hohe Komplexität der betrieblichen Herausforderungen, die in vier Gestaltungsperspektiven gebündelt werden: Kommunikation, Wertschätzung, Lernen/Lernorganisation sowie Qualität der Arbeit. Diese Themenfelder sind eng miteinander verwoben und betreffen sowohl Führungsverhalten und Arbeitsbedingungen als auch strukturelle Rahmenbedingungen. Branchenspezifisch treten in der Logistik vor allem physische, in der Pflege und Betreuung eher auch psychosoziale Belastungen auf. Daraus ergeben sich differenzierte Anforderungen an betriebliche Gestaltungsansätze. Im Projekt werden innovative methodische Zugänge erprobt, etwa die dialogorientierte Methode Rooms of Error. Ziel des Verbundprojekts ist der Aufbau eines Kompetenzzentrums in der Region NordWest, das praxisnahes Wissen zur Gestaltung und Entwicklung von Einfacharbeit langfristig sichert und weiterentwickelt. Damit leistet ressource einen Beitrag zur arbeitswissenschaftlichen Erschließung von Einfacharbeit und zur Entwicklung zukunftsfähiger Arbeitswelten. |
| Abstract: | The joint project ressource explores and shapes working conditions for employees in low-skilled jobs, particularly in logistics and health-related services. The focus lies on systematic needs and requirements analyses that address institutional, organizational, and individual challenges, as well as existing resources for health-promoting work design and skills development. Methodologically, the project follows a reflexiveiterative mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative methods in a participatory research design. The results reveal the high complexity of operational challenges, which are structured into four key areas for action: communication, appreciation, learning/learning organization, and quality of work. These dimensions are closely interrelated and affect both leadership behavior and structural conditions. Sector-specific differences emerge, with physical strain being more prominent in logistics and psychosocial stress more common in care and support services. As a result, tailored approaches to workplace design are required. The project also piloted innovative methodological tools, such as the dialogue-based Rooms of Error method. The findings feed into an iterative and reflective transfer strategy that enables sustainable and needs-oriented knowledge transfer to companies and beyond. A central goal is the development of a competence center that secures and further develops practical knowledge in the long term. With this, ressource makes a valuable contribution to work science by addressing and enhancing low-skilled work and supporting the development of future-ready working environments. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iawsch:323236 |
| By: | Böninghausen, Benjamin; Evrard, Johanne; Gati, Zakaria; Gori, Sofia; Lambert, Claudia; Legran, Daniel; Schuster, Wagner Eduardo; van Overbeek, Fons |
| Abstract: | The European Union (EU) economy depends heavily on bank funding. For this reason, strengthening EU equity markets as an alternative funding source has been a policy priority under the Capital Markets Union (CMU) agenda, and more recently a key feature of the Savings and Investment Union (SIU). EU listed equity markets are smaller and structurally different from those in the United States (US), with differing market capitalisations of listed firms and differences in the number of companies listed, stemming from lower initial public offering (IPO) activity in Europe. This paper aims to understand the drivers behind the EU-US listing gap, focusing on two aspects: (1) the general firm-level benefits of listing, and (2) whether pre-listing financing opportunities in the EU are underdeveloped, hindering firm growth and ultimately market depth. This paper first puts forward an empirical analysis to assess how a firm’s decision to list impacts various key performance indicators, with a view to assessing the implications of listing for the economy at large. Second, it zooms in on innovative firms to shed light on the primary challenges faced by EU startups in their funding pipelines, with a focus on late-stage equity financing and venture capital (VC) markets. Focusing on the euro area (EA) as a proxy to derive broader benefits of listing in the EU, we find that EA companies’ key profitability measures, employment, innovation capacity and productivity all increase after listing – and are thus indicative of wider economic benefits. This is, however, associated with challenges for the long-term investment strategies of listed companies, such as potential short-termism – a topic widely studied in the literature. Moreover, a comparison with the US suggests that, while the benefits and risks of listing are qualitatively similar on the other side of the Atlantic, EA companies seem to benefit somewhat less from listing than their US peers. […] JEL Classification: G10, G30, L10, L50, G24, G32, L21, L25 |
| Keywords: | capital markets union, equity markets, financial structure, listing, savings and investments union, venture capital |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2025373 |
| By: | Rehkamp, Sarah; Canning, Patrick; Gómez, Miguel I.,; Zachary, James Chandler; Baker, Quinton |
| Abstract: | The production of goods and services throughout an economy requires the use of resources and materials. Linking resource flows to economic sectors is challenging because of the varying data availability and heterogeneity in the dataset dimensions, such as geography, activity scale, or time. This technical bulletin presents a flexible accounting structure to measure annual resource use throughout the U.S. economy by production activity. This research builds on past work by presenting an annual time series and advancing allocation metrics. Both natural resources (i.e., energy and freshwater) and human resources (i.e., employment) are considered. These data quantify resource use and identify the resource intensity or efficiency of sectors but also offer opportunities for macroeconomic modeling and applications. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerstb:364699 |
| By: | Nicole Summers-Gabr |
| Abstract: | An analysis of a hospital survey finds that AI adoption varies greatly by geography. The variations are notable both between metro and rural areas and among Eighth District states. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence (AI); healthcare; hospitals; geography |
| Date: | 2025–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:101373 |
| By: | Benjamin Coriat; Eric Benhamou |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel hierarchical framework for portfolio optimization, integrating lightweight Large Language Models (LLMs) with Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to combine sentiment signals from financial news with traditional market indicators. Our three-tier architecture employs base RL agents to process hybrid data, meta-agents to aggregate their decisions, and a super-agent to merge decisions based on market data and sentiment analysis. Evaluated on data from 2018 to 2024, after training on 2000-2017, the framework achieves a 26% annualized return and a Sharpe ratio of 1.2, outperforming equal-weighted and S&P 500 benchmarks. Key contributions include scalable cross-modal integration, a hierarchical RL structure for enhanced stability, and open-source reproducibility. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.18560 |
| By: | Aguilar, José; Quineche, Ricardo |
| Abstract: | Despite being an emerging economy, Peru has achieved superior post-pandemic disinflation compared to major developed economies, making its regional inflation dynamics globally instructive for monetary policy design. This study investigates Lima's suitability as Peru's inflation-targeting anchor by analyzing regional spillovers across nine economic regions using monthly CPI data (2002-2024). Employing both Diebold-Yilmaz time-domain and Baruník-Křehlík frequency-domain frameworks, we quantify the direction, magnitude, and persistence of inflation transmission. Results reveal strong regional interdependence (73.60% total spillover index) with Lima as the dominant net transmitter (23.94 percentage points). However, frequency decomposition uncovers striking cyclical heterogeneity: Lima receives short-run shocks from food-producing regions but dominates long-run transmission (44.70% vs. 28.99% frequency spillover index). Rolling-window analysis during COVID-19 shows temporary spillover disruption (connectivity declining from 75% to 68%) followed by recovery during 2022's inflationary surge. Robustness checks across specifications, granular city-level data, and three-band frequency segmentation confirm Lima's structural centrality at lower frequencies. These findings validate the Central Reserve Bank's Lima-centered approach for long-run targeting while revealing asymmetric frequency-dependent spillovers. The presence of short-run regional shocks suggests integrating upstream agricultural signals could enhance near-term forecasting and policy responsiveness. |
| Keywords: | Inflation spillovers, Regional inflation dynamics, Baruník-Křehlík framework, Diebold-Yilmaz methodology, Frequency-domain analysis |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:322270 |
| By: | Césaire Meh; Kevin Moran |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework to quantitatively assess the links between traditional and shadow banks and how these links are modified by regulatory reforms in the traditional banking sector. In the model, banks screen projects and originate loans, and then sell some of these loans (securitize them) to shadow banks, in order to redeploy capital and invest in alternative productive investment opportunities. This capital redeployment towards profitable investment implies a potentially socially beneficial role for shadow banks. However, the availability of securitization might also lead banks to screen projects less intensively and increase risk-taking. We explore the quantitative implication of this tradeoff and how it is affected by regulation of the traditional bank sector. Nous développons un modèle macroéconomique permettant d’analyser les liens entre le secteur bancaire traditionnel et le secteur parallèle ("shadow banking") et comment ces liens sont affectés par la réglementation bancaire imposée au secteur bancaire traditionnel. Dans le modèle, les banques traditionnelles font la sélection initiale des projets et émettent des prêts, mais peuvent ensuite une partie de ces prêts (en les titrisant) à leur contreparties du secteur parallèle, afin de réallouer leur capital à d’autres opportunités d’investissement productives. Cette réallocation de capital vers des investissements rentables confère aux shadow banks un rôle potentiellement bénéfique sur le plan social. Toutefois, la possibilité de titrisation des prêts peut également inciter les banques à réduire leurs efforts initiaux dans les sélection des projets et à prendre davantage de risques. Nous examinons les implications quantitatives de cette tension et la manière dont celles-ci sont influencées par la réglementation du secteur bancaire traditionnel. |
| Keywords: | Banks, Shadow banks, Moral hazard, Bank regulation, secteur bancaire traditionnel, secteur bancaire parallèle (shadow banking), réglementation bancaire, aléa moral |
| JEL: | E44 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2025s-22 |
| By: | Masahito AMBASHI; Momoka KAMITANI |
| Abstract: | Using a uniquely constructed dataset, this study examines 2.5-dimensional musicals in Japan and investigates whether ticket prices tend to increase in response to an expansion in cast size. According to multiple regression analysis, ticket prices and cast size exhibit an inverted-U-shaped relationship, suggesting the presence of a certain threshold. When outliers exceeding this threshold are excluded, the number of main cast members (MCM) with official roles and titles demonstrates a substantially weaker positive correlation with ticket prices than the number of ensemble cast members (ECM) performing background roles. Moreover, the results of propensity score matching indicate that an increase in MCM size may not be reflected in higher ticket prices. A plausible interpretation of these findings is that innovations, particularly those associated with MCM, may promote productivity improvements that offset the upward pressure on ticket prices resulting from rising labor costs and increased market power in the monopolistic competition market of 2.5-dimensional musicals. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25067 |
| By: | Heijmans, Roweno; Suetens, Sigrid (University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | We use experiments to systematically test the performance of subsidies aimed atinducing efficient coordination in a coordination game. We consider two classesof policies: those based on divide-and-conquer (i.e. iterated dominance) and thosemaking the efficient Nash equilibrium of the game risk dominant. Cost-efficientpolicies from both classes are equally expensive but differ in the distribution ofsubsidies among agents. Our results show that risk dominance subsidies increasecoordination more effectively or at a lower cost than divide-and-conquer subsidies. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gro:rugfeb:2025004-eef |
| By: | Maysam Rabbani; Zahra Akbari |
| Abstract: | The literature documents the effects of the pandemic on birthrate, birthweight, and pregnancy complications. This study contributes to this growing body of research by examining multiple facets of the phenomenon. Using the 2012-2022 hospital inpatient discharge data of New York, we implemented fixed-effects regression models and reported three key findings. First, birthrate was declining pre-pandemic by 1.11% annually. Second, we documented an additional 7.61% decline in birthrate with the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Notably, birthrate did not return to the pre-pandemic trajectory in subsequent years, indicating a persistent decline. Third, this post-pandemic decline was greater in vaginal delivery, with weak evidence of a drop in C-section. In our sample, C-section generates 61% more revenue than vaginal delivery. This raises the possibility that, in response to declining birthrate, healthcare providers have increased C-section rates to make up for lost revenues. While this hinted at upselling in the delivery room, further research is needed to draw definitive conclusions. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.14736 |
| By: | Johanna Muffert; Regina T. Riphahn |
| Abstract: | Multiple job holding (MJH) is increasingly frequent in industrialized countries. Individuals holding a secondary job add to their experience, skills, and networks. We study the long-run labor market outcomes after MJH and investigate whether career effects can be alidated. We employ high-quality administrative data from Germany. Our doubly robust estimation method combines entropy balancing with fixed effects difference-in-differences regressions. We find that income from primary employment declines after MJH spells and overall annual earnings from all jobs increase briefly. Job mobility increases after MJH spells. Interestingly, the beneficial long-term effects of MJH are largest for disadvantaged groups in the labor market such as females, those with low earnings, and low education. Overall, we find only limited benefits of MJH. |
| Keywords: | secondary job holding, moonlighting, Minijob, entropy balancing, investment motive, administrative data, fixed effects, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | J22 J24 C21 M53 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:240_muffert_riphahn.rdf |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu (MIT); Fredric Kong (MIT); Pascual Restrepo (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter reviews recent advances in the task model and shows how this framework can be put to work to understand trends in the labor market in recent decades. Production in each industry requires the completion of various tasks that can be assigned to workers with different skills or to capital. Factors of production have well-defined comparative advantage across tasks, which governs substitution patterns. Technological change can: (1) augment a specific labor type—e.g., increase the productivity of labor in tasks it is already performing; (2) augment capital; (3) automate work by enabling capital to perform tasks previously allocated to labor; (4) create new tasks. The task model clarifies that these different technologies have distinct effects on labor demand, factor shares, and productivity and their full impact depends on the substitution patterns between workers that arise endogenously in the task framework. We explore the implications of the task framework using reduced-form evidence, highlighting the central role of automation and new tasks in recent labor market trends. We also explain how the general equilibrium effects ignored in these reduced-form approaches can be estimated structurally. |
| Keywords: | automation, productivity, technology, inequality, wages, rents |
| JEL: | J23 J31 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2535 |
| By: | Julia Gonzalez |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether deforestation-related import regulations reshape the global trade network of forest-risk commodities such as soy, palm oil, timber, and paper. While existing research has focused on trade volumes and environmental outcomes, the structural effects of such policies on trade architecture remain underexplored. Using UN Comtrade data from 2004 to 2024 and a newly compiled dataset of import regulations, this study models global trade as a network of countries linked by bilateral flows. It applies a Difference-in-Differences framework to estimate how policy exposure affects country-level centrality, combined with community detection and modular realignment metrics to track changes in trade bloc configurations. Results show modest structural shifts. Treated importers often experience increased eigenvector centrality and reduced out-degree, especially under certification and market-based policies. However, effects are generally small and not consistently significant across all specifications. Modular realignment analysis reveals that only a few policies lead to measurable changes in trade community structure. The findings suggest that deforestation-related trade regulations can influence the architecture of global trade networks, but their structural impact depends heavily on policy design and enforcement. This paper contributes a novel network perspective to the literature on environmental trade governance. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation, Network Analysis, Modular Realignment, Global Supply Chain. |
| JEL: | E01 E16 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03872025 |
| By: | Cecchini, Simone; Comelatto, Pablo; Holz, Raúl; Kang, Seongji; Paes, Yaël |
| Abstract: | Este documento analiza las implicancias económicas del acelerado envejecimiento poblacional en América Latina y el Caribe, destacando tanto los desafíos para el crecimiento económico, el mercado laboral y la sostenibilidad de las políticas sociales, como las oportunidades de impulso a diversos sectores económicos que este fenómeno representa para la región. A partir de datos demográficos y económicos, se examina la transformación estructural en curso, con especial énfasis en el aumento de la población de 65 años y más. El estudio revisa los enfoques conceptuales que permiten comprender las diversas dimensiones del envejecimiento en relación con la producción, el consumo y las transferencias intergeneracionales, tales como la economía plateada, la economía de la longevidad y la economía generacional. Se identifican sectores con potencial de crecimiento económico en un contexto de envejecimiento, como la salud, los cuidados, la industria farmacéutica, el sector financiero, la tecnología, el turismo y la vivienda adaptada. A través del análisis del bono demográfico y del uso de la metodología de las Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencias, el documento evalúa los impactos proyectados del envejecimiento sobre el crecimiento económico y destaca el papel de la productividad y la participación laboral —en especial de mujeres y personas mayores— como factores clave para mitigar estos efectos. Asimismo, se examinan políticas públicas innovadoras en la República de Corea y otros países del mundo, que pueden servir de referencia para América Latina y el Caribe. El documento concluye que aprovechar las oportunidades económicas del envejecimiento requiere tomar en cuenta el cambio demográfico en las políticas públicas, invertir en salud, protección social y cuidados, así como reconocer los derechos y aportes de las personas mayores, desde un enfoque de ciclo de vida. |
| Date: | 2025–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col045:82262 |
| By: | Keisuke KONDO |
| Abstract: | This study utilizes micro-geographic data to examine wage premiums across different residential and employment agglomerations. In the existing literature on economies of density, the distinction between residents and workers is often addressed without a clear differentiation between the two. This oversight hinders the formulation of practical policy recommendations for compact urban planning and industrial location strategies. Amid Japan’s ongoing population decline, certain regions retain the capacity to attract industrial activity despite their waning appeal as residential areas. However, when policy discussions focus exclusively on residential agglomeration, regions with substantial potential to revitalize local industrial clusters may be overlooked. To bridge this gap, the study integrates manufacturing establishment data with regional mesh data on both residents and workers. This study finds that employment concentration, rather than residential concentration within compact geographic areas accounts for wage premiums, thereby highlighting the critical role of spatial locality of employment in shaping industrial location strategies. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25069 |
| By: | Al Mamoon, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | In this work, we systematically analyse the differences and similarities between TradFi (Traditional Finance) and DeFi (Decentralised Finance). Financial technology is rapidly expanding, and large technology firms are making advances in credit markets. The Internet of Value (IOV), with its distributed ledger technology (DLT) as a basis, has developed new types of loan marketplaces. In this paper, we enumerate the prospects & challenges of Traditional Finance (TradFi) lending markets driven by banks and other lending institutes, as well as the opportunities of DeFi lending protocols that may support the resolution of long-standing concerns in the conventional lending landscape. Overall, fintech and big tech credit appear to complement rather than substitute the traditional forms of lending. |
| Keywords: | DeFi, Decentralized Finance, Financial Institution, Banking, Credit, Financing, Investment, TradFi, Traditional finance |
| JEL: | E5 E51 F30 G23 G32 O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:323252 |
| By: | Greyling, Jan C.; Pardey, Philip G. |
| Abstract: | The tide is turning on the trajectory of farm structures throughout the world. Drawing on a new, balanced-panel dataset for 168 countries covering 1971–2020, we estimate that farm numbers rose from 426 million to 668 million, while measured farmland has contracted since about 1980, and average farm size has shrunk. Yet recent movements signal a historic pivot. As agri-food economies mature—with higher incomes, ageing and slowing populations, and rapid urbanization—the long-standing pattern of ever-more farms and ever-smaller holdings is no longer universal. The global weighted mean area per farm fell from 7.6 ha to 4.5 ha over the past half-century, but the rate of decline moderated to 0.74% per year in the past decade, down from 0.85% pr year previously. Seven countries—China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia—contain 70% (469 million) of all farms; their dominance distorts geographically divergent trajectories worldwide. For at least several decades, the median farm worldwide has crept up in size to 5.3 ha in 2020, while the unweighted mean has climbed to 58.0 ha. The roster of countries with stable or rising average farm sizes increased from 88 (62.0%) in the 1970s to 108 (66.2%) in the 2010s, with consolidation now evident in China, Thailand, and Vietnam as well as in high-income economies. Consolidation usually entails fewer farms and, in many cases, shrinking farmland area as well as increasing average farm sizes. A statistical decomposition confirms that, globally, shifts in farm numbers—rather than changes in total farmland—principally (though not everywhere, all the time) drive movements in mean farm size, underscoring the demographic and structural forces reshaping agriculture worldwide. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umiswp:364278 |
| By: | Mahunan Anselme Hounnou (UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar [Sénégal]); Mouhamed El Bachir Wade; Patrice Aimé Agossou |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to analyze the role of university training courses specializing in entrepreneurship in the relationship between managerial innovation and value creation in SMEs. This research is intended to be hypothetico-deductive. In order to test the relationships, we collected data from 76 business leaders who were beneficiaries of the Programme de Formation Sud Entrepreneuriat Intrapreneuriat Burkina Faso - Bénin. Three statistical tools were used to analyze the data collected: flat sorting, exploratory factor analysis (PCA) and linear regressions. The results of our research show that, for 10% of SME value creation, managerial innovation contributes 41% and university training in entrepreneurship 48.9%. These results are significant only at the 1% level. It follows that university training programs specialized in entrepreneurship positively and significantly moderate the relationship between managerial innovation and value creation in small and medium-sized enterprises |
| Abstract: | Cet article vise à d'analyser le rôle des formations universitaires spécialisé en entrepreneuriat dans la relation entre innovation managériale et création de valeur des PME. Cette recherche se veut hypothético-déductive. Afin de tester les relations nous avons collecté auprès de 76 chefs d'entreprises bénéficiaires du Programme de Formation Sud Entrepreneuriat Intrapreneuriat Burkina Innovation managériale et création de valeur … || 167Faso -Bénin. Trois outils statistiques ont permis d'analyser les données collectées : le tri à plat, analyse factorielle exploratoire (ACP) et les régressions linéaires. Il ressort des résultats de notre recherche que pour 10% de la création de valeur des PME, l'innovation managériale contribue à hauteur de 41% et la formation universitaire en entrepreneuriat assure 48, 9%. Ces résultats sont significatifs au seul de 1%. Il en découle que les programmes de formation universitaire spécialisés en entrepreneuriat modèrent positivement et significativement la relation innovation managériale et création de valeur des Petites et Moyenne Entreprises. |
| Keywords: | Managerial innovation - Value creation - University training - SMEs, Innovation managériale création de valeur formation universitaire PME Managerial innovation -Value creation -University training -SMEs, Innovation managériale, création de valeur, formation universitaire, PME Managerial innovation -Value creation -University training -SMEs |
| Date: | 2024–12–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05104236 |
| By: | Francesco Giancaterini; Alain Hecq; Joann Jasiak; Aryan Manafi Neyazi |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new approach to detect bubbles based on mixed causal and noncausal processes and their tail process representation during explosive episodes. Departing from traditional definitions of bubbles as nonstationary and temporarily explosive processes, we adopt a perspective in which prices are viewed as following a strictly stationary process, with the bubble considered an intrinsic component of its non-linear dynamics. We illustrate our approach on the phenomenon referred to as the "green bubble" in the field of renewable energy investment. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.14911 |
| By: | McKenzie, David |
| Abstract: | This paper offers practical advice on how to improve statistical power in randomized experiments through choices and actions researchers can take at the design, implementation, and analysis stages. At the design stage, the choice of estimand, choice of treatment, and decisions that affect the residual variance and intra-cluster correlation can all affect power for a given sample size. At the implementation stage, researchers can boost power through increasing compliance with treatment, reducing attrition, and improving outcome measurement. At the analysis stage, power can be increased through using different test statistics or estimands, through the choice of control variables, and through incorporating informative priors in a Bayesian analysis. A key message is that it does not make sense to talk of “the” power of an experiment. A study can be well-powered for one outcome or estimand, but not others, and a fixed sample size can yield very different levels of power depending on researcher decisions. |
| Date: | 2025–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11176 |
| By: | David Autor (MIT); David Dorn (University of Zurich); Gordon Hanson (Harvard University); Maggie Jones (US Census Bureau); Bradley Setzler (Pennsylvania State University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000-2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service industries in healthcare, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominantly exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions. |
| Keywords: | China trade shock, Local labor markets, Sectoral reallocation, Manufacturing decline, Worker mobility |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J31 J62 L6 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2537 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical framework for analyzing the internal dynamics, fragility, and inevitable collapse of totalitarian regimes. Drawing upon foundational criteria established by Friedrich and Brzezinski, we construct a system of seven coupled nonlinear differential equations that capture the interdependent evolution of ideol ogy, political power, coercive force, citizen conformity, dissent, economic extraction, and systemic entropy. The model integrates principles from dynamical systems theory, nonequilibrium thermodynamics, and neural systems analysis to show that totalitarian regimes are structurally unstable. Simulations reveal three distinct phases in a regime's trajectory -- consolidation, metastable stagnation, and nonlinear collapse driven by endogenous entropy accumulation and the regime's inherent inability to process dissent or adapt to disorder. A thermodynamic reinterpretation frames these regimes as dissipative structures that become energetically unsustainable, while a cognitive-neural analog demonstrates their eventual failure as signal-processing systems. Historical episodes-from Stalinist repression and Nazi collapse to the final decades of the Soviet Union -- are shown to conform to this general law of structural breakdown. We conclude by stating a unified law of totalitarian collapse: any regime that overcentralizes signal and suppresses feedback will generate entropy faster than it can dissipate it, leading inevitably to systemic failure. |
| Keywords: | Totalitarianism, system collapse, entropy, nonlinear dynamics, thermodynamics, Wilson–Cowan model, cognitive regimes, ideology, political power, dissent, neural instability, adaptive failure |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:767 |