|
on Investment |
| By: | Nicolás González-Pampillón (Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) - LSE & IEB); Javier Vázquez-Grenno; Universitat de Barcelona & IEB |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a substantial minimum wage increase in Uruguay—a middle-income developing economy—on wages and employment. Using administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we analyze the consequences of a 2005 policy reform that raised the real minimum wage by 80% within a year. Our findings show that the reform led to significant wage gains for low-wage earners, with at most minimal negative effects on employment. Survey data further reveal no significant changes in unemployment or informality, suggesting the reform did not distort labor market dynamics. To contextualize these results, we investigate compliance with minimum wage laws and document a post-reform decline in compliance, particularly among low-wage workers. This pattern aligns with firms’ cost-benefit trade-offs under weak enforcement of wage regulations. Our study contributes to the literature by providing causal evidence on the labor market effects of minimum wage policies in a developing economy, underscoring the pivotal role of enforcement in shaping policy outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, labour market, compliance with the law. |
| JEL: | J23 J38 J88 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-06 |
| By: | Herr, Hansjörg |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, impact analysis, Germany |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gluwps:321870 |
| By: | Mahrt, Kristi; Schmidt, Emily; Hayoge, Glen |
| Abstract: | Key Messages To address rising living costs which reduce the purchasing power of the minimum wage, the Government of PNG recently launched a review of the country’s minimum wage. The minimum wage has been PGK 3.50 per hour or PGK 28 per 8-hour day since July 2016. At the beginning of 2025, the minimum wage could purchase about three-quarters as much food and other goods and services compared to July 2016. The cost of a healthy diet per adult per day in urban areas increased by 35 percent from PGK 7.70 in 2021 to PGK 10.37 in 2025. The cost of the healthy diet was the most expensive in Port Moresby—PGK 11.15 per adult per day in 2025 and increased the most in Kokopo (54 percent) from PGK 5.81 to PGK 8.92 between 2021 and 2025. One and a half full-time urban minimum wage earners earn just enough to feed a healthy diet to a family of five in 2025, with no money remaining for essential non-food expenses such as clothing, shelter, transportation, health, and education. The government recently published a public notice of Goods and Services Tax (GST) zero-rating of essential goods effective 1st June 2025 to 30th June 2026. We re-evaluate the purchasing power of a minimum wage by decreasing the price of tinned tuna and rice by 10% (reflective of the GST zero-rating) on Q1 2025 recorded prices. Assuming prices remain constant (with no shifts in demand due to decreased tax), the cost of the average urban healthy diet in the first quarter of 2025 is 4.7 percent lower without the GST (PGK 9.87) compared to the cost of a healthy diet with the GST (PGK 10.35) — slightly improving the purchasing power of minimum wage earners. |
| Keywords: | economics; purchasing; healthy diets; consumer behaviour; Papua New Guinea; Oceania |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pacerp:175410 |
| By: | Sora Lee (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In South Korea, the domestic real economy is showing weakness in exports, investment, and consumption, constraining economic growth. Exports have slipped due to price declines in semiconductors, automobiles, and petroleum products, as well as slack global demand and policy uncertainties in major economies. Semiconductors have been severely affected by falling unit prices, and overseas demand for South Korean autos has slowed. These conditions, in addition to the base effect of strong export performance in the previous year, conspired to produce a negative growth rate (-2.1 percent) in exports in the first half (H1) of 2025. This is the first time exports have actually fallen since the third quarter (Q3) of 2023.<p> Private consumption has slowed too across both goods and services, with the exception of consumption of some durable goods, such as automobiles. Domestic political uncertainties, an inflationary environment, and high interest rates have all worked to dampen consumer sentiment, resulting in overall sluggish domestic demand. Facility investments have also tumbled, especially investments in chip manufacturing equipment. Construction investment continued its freefall, recording its fourth consecutive quarterly decline.<p> At the same time, industrial production has shown some signs of recovery. After significant volatility in H2 of last year, manufacturing production began to tick back upward starting in February 2025. Service sector output has also climbed, albeit modestly, since the beginning of this year.<p> However, key indicators used to assess economic conditions remain unstable. The cyclical component of the leading index temporarily rebounded after February 2025 but has recently reverted to a downward trend. Also, the cyclical component of coincident index continues to decline with no clear signs of a rebound since last year. Despite a modest recovery in production, continued contractions in exports, consumption, and investment, along with heightened uncertainty in key economic sectors, are expected to significantly hamper domestic growth in the near term. |
| Keywords: | economic outlook, macroeconomic outlook, economic forecasting, marcoeconomy, macroeconomic forecasti |
| JEL: | E30 E32 E60 E66 |
| Date: | 2025–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:021416 |
| By: | Jihyun Kim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Sung Keun Park (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Jeong-Hyun Kim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | On April 3, 2025, the administration of United States president Donald Trump announced the imposition of an additional 25 percent tariff on imports from South Korea. This measure, part of a broader protectionist trade strategy, was intended to reduce the US trade deficit and safeguard domestic manufacturing industries. The US government identified South Korea as a holding a major trade surplus vis a vis the US and escalated trade pressure accordingly, but this response stems from a reductive interpretation of the trade imbalance — one that overlooks the underlying structure of bilateral trade between the two nations.<p> In this study, we conduct a multifaceted structural analysis of Korea’s exports to the United States, focusing particularly on how these exports are deeply integrated into US manufacturing sectors. We also explore the role of Korean foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States within this interconnected framework, examining its implications for bilateral trade flows. We then identify the implications for strategic policy carried by the empirical evidence that Korea’s trade surplus with the US is underpinned by a mutually complementary industrial structure.<p> These findings may serve as a foundational rationale in trade negotiations and guide future policy responses to emerging protectionist pressures. |
| Keywords: | trade; international trade; Korea-US trade; trade balance; balance of trade; Trump; tariffs; protect |
| JEL: | F10 F15 F13 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2025–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:021418 |
| By: | Anke D. Leroux (Department of Economics, Monash University, Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia.); Vance L. Martin (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia (retired).) |
| Abstract: | Food security lags economic development, raising questions about whether food insecure households can leverage local economic development and livelihood diversif ication opportunities as effectively as their food secure counterparts. In a dynamic model incorporating production and utility risk, household consumption and livelihood portfolios depend on vulnerability, described by proximity to their stochastic minimum consumption threshold. Using granular data on smallholder farmers’ livelihood choices, the threshold effect is significant, with approximately 25% of household wealth allocated to satisfying the consumption threshold. Costly income smoothing strategies are most prevalent among the vulnerable and food insecure. However, results show that popular programs targeting livelihood diversification benefit primarily food secure households. In contrast, food safety net programs that directly reduce vulnerability carry the largest livelihood diversification benefits for food insecure households. These findings highlight the importance of reducing vulnerability to food insecurity, as it hinders smallholder farmers from accessing high-value market opportunities. |
| Keywords: | food security, household portfolio choice, GMM, livelihoods, SDG2 |
| JEL: | O13 G11 Q12 D81 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-11 |
| By: | Pyka, Vinzenz |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data from Germany, this study provides first evidence on the wage effects of collective bargaining compliance laws. These laws require establishments receiving public contracts to pay wages set by a representative collective agreement, even if they are not formally bound by one. Leveraging variation in the timing of law implementation across federal states, and focusing on the public transport sector - where regulation is uniform and demand is driven solely by state-level needs - I estimate dynamic treatment effects using event-study designs. The results indicate that within five years of the law's implementation, wage increases were on average 2.9 to 4.6 per cent higher in federal states with such a law compared to those without one - but only in East Germany. These findings highlight the potential for securing collectively agreed wages in times of declining collective bargaining coverage. |
| Abstract: | Ich nutze administrative Daten aus Deutschland und liefere erstmals empirische Evidenz zu den Lohneffekten von Tariftreuegesetzen. Diese Gesetze verpflichten Unternehmen, die öffentliche Aufträge erhalten, ihre Beschäftigten nach einem repräsentativen Tarifvertrag zu entlohnen - auch wenn sie selbst nicht tarifgebunden sind. Auf Grundlage der Gesetzeseinführungen in den Bundesländern analysiere ich mithilfe von Event-Study-Modellen die Lohnentwicklung von Beschäftigten im öffentlichen Nahverkehr. Dieser Sektor eignet sich besonders gut zur Evaluation, da er bundesweit einheitlich reguliert ist und die Nachfrage ausschließlich durch den Staat bestimmt wird. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass in Bundesländern mit einem Tariftreuegesetz die Löhne ceteris paribus im Durchschnitt innerhalb von fünf Jahren nach der Einführung um 2, 9 bis 4, 6 Prozent stärker gestiegen sind als in Bundesländern ohne Tariftreuegesetz - allerdings nur in Ostdeutschland. Dies legt nahe, dass ein Bundestariftreuegesetz beitragen könnte, Tariflöhne angesichts einer sinkenden Tarifbindung zu sichern. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining, pay clauses, public procurement, trade unions |
| JEL: | J31 J38 J51 J53 J58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:faulre:321882 |
| By: | Martin Wolf; Luca Fornaro |
| Abstract: | We study public debt sustainability in an economy with endogenous productivity growth. Our model has two key features: i) financing large primary surpluses entails fiscal distortions that depress investment and growth, ii) low growth increases the primary surpluses needed to stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Negative shocks to fundamentals or pessimistic animal spirits may drive the economy into a state of fiscal stagnation, characterized by high public debt, large fiscal distortions and low productivity growth. We discuss policy options to avoid/escape fiscal stagnation. |
| Keywords: | investment, fiscal policy, public policy, Endogenous Productivity Growth, Stagnation |
| JEL: | E22 E62 H63 O40 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1488 |
| By: | Annibali, Claudio (University of Groningen); Bergemann, Annette (University of Groningen); Alessie, Rob (University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | To promote early detection of diabetes and ameliorate the negative consequences of diabetes, some governments provide diabetes screenings. This paper contributes to the literature by being the first to investigate whether an issued warning affects the individual’s employment status. Additionally, our analysis also explores health effects, stratified by gender, age, and education , in order to receive indications for potential pathways of the employment effects. By doing so, we present the first results in the literature for individuals under 40. Using a multidimensional regression discontinuity design, we investigate the short- and long-run effects of a diabetes risk warning issued by Lifelines, a Dutch cohort study. In particular, low-educated individuals below 40 increase their labour market activities after a warning, which is generally more pronounced and also persistent for women. Surprisingly, this is not matched by similar strong effects on health outcomes by either gender. Health effects are very heterogeneous by gender, age and educational group. Older, highly educated women seem to benefit particularly strongly from a warning, as a significant reduction in the 4-year mortality rate indicates. |
| Keywords: | undiagnosed diabetes, employment, diabetes screening, diabetes, multidimensional regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | I12 J16 I10 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17999 |
| By: | Hanol Lee; Jong-Wha Lee |
| Abstract: | This study develops a novel cross-country measure of higher education quality by leveraging the robust relationship between institution-level indicators--such as faculty-to-student ratios and global university rankings--and the earnings of graduates employed overseas. Using U.S. microdata, it shows that global rankings are strongly correlated with key quality dimensions, including research performance, teaching environment, enrollment size, international outlook, and student selectivity. Building on this relationship, a country-level index of college education quality is constructed for 98 countries, capturing variations in institutional characteristics weighted by their estimated effects on graduate earnings. To examine macroeconomic impacts, the study estimates cross-country regressions of GDP per worker, resident patenting, and R&D expenditures. An instrumental variable strategy--exploiting geographic proximity to global academic hubs--is used to address potential endogeneity. The results show that tertiary education quality has a large and statistically significant effect on all three outcomes, underscoring its role in long-run economic development and innovation capacity. |
| Keywords: | education quality, human capital, economic development, innovation, college education, university rankings |
| JEL: | I23 I25 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-41 |
| By: | An, Jun-Hee (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:0c2b3e40-89d4-4b5d-b026-510c5e33579b |
| By: | Wintemute, Garen J.; Velasquez, Bradley; Robinson, Sonia; Tomsich, Elizabeth A.; Wright, Mona; Shev, Aaron |
| Abstract: | Background: The possibility of widespread political violence poses a serious concern for the United States. A nationally representative survey found in 2022 that “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) Republicans, as defined, were more supportive than others of political violence. This study updates and expands those findings; the principal comparison is between MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA non-Republicans. Methods: Findings are from Wave 3 of a nationally representative annual longitudinal survey of members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, conducted May 23-June 14, 2024. All respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate. Political party and MAGA affiliations were reported by respondents. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions and adjusted prevalence differences (aPDs; these are percentage point (pp) differences), with p-values adjusted for the false discovery rate and reported as q-values. Results: The completion rate was 88.4%; there were 8896 respondents. After weighting, half the sample was female (50.9%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 49.5%, 52.3%); the weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (24.9) years. MAGA Republicans were substantially more likely than non-MAGA non-Republicans to endorse violence to effect sociopolitical change generally and to consider violence usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 21 specific political objectives (MAGA Republicans, 55.9% (95% CI 52.3%, 59.4%); non-MAGA non-Republicans, 25.5% (95% CI 23.7%, 27.2%); aPD 30.1pp (95% CI 26.0pp, 34.2pp), q < 0.001). They were not more willing to commit political violence. Similarly, while MAGA Republicans more frequently predicted that they would be armed in a future setting where they considered political violence to be justified (very or extremely likely: MAGA Republicans, 19.8% (95% CI 17.0%, 22.6%); non-MAGA non-Republicans, 5.5% (95% CI 4.6%, 6.4%); aPD 16.4pp (95% CI 13.3pp, 19.5pp), q < 0.001), they were not more likely to shoot someone (very or extremely likely: MAGA Republicans, 2.1% (95% CI 0.8%, 3.4%); non-MAGA non-Republicans, 1.6% (95% CI 1.0%, 2.1%); aPD 1.5pp (95% CI -0.1pp, 3.0pp), q = 0.43). Prevalences for other Republicans generally fell between those for MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA non-Republicans. On some political violence measures, prevalences were highest among a small, demographically distinct group of non-Republican MAGA supporters. In secondary analyses, MAGA Republicans endorsed statements of beliefs associated with political violence—racism, hostile sexism, homonegativity, transphobia, xenophobia, and Islamophobia; support for the QAnon movement and Christian nationalism; conspiracism; trait aggression; and authoritarianism—more frequently than did non-MAGA non-Republicans. Conclusions: In 2024, MAGA Republicans were more likely than others to endorse political violence and beliefs associated with an increased risk of committing violence. They were not more willing to commit political violence themselves, but their endorsement may increase the risk that political violence will occur. |
| Date: | 2025–06–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fzc8x_v1 |
| By: | Youcef Bakhtaoui (MADEO-EST Oujda - Research Laboratory in Business and Organizational Management and Development Higher School of Technology Mohammed First University, Oujda); Fadoua Eljai (MADEO-EST Oujda - Research Laboratory in Business and Organizational Management and Development Higher School of Technology Mohammed First University, Oujda) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the world has undergone profound transformations that have necessitated the re-evaluation and reformulation of economic concepts to align with the demands of evolving circumstances. In response to these changes, the scientific community must prioritize studying such concepts particularly, the notion of industrial sovereignty within a multidimensional and cognitive framework. This study is grounded in a scoping review conducted through a flexible and iterative approach, aiming to map the various dimensions of industrial sovereignty. It also incorporates a conceptual analysis to clarify key terms and frameworks. The research adopts a narrative and critical perspective, tracing the evolution of Moroccan industrial strategies within their historical and geopolitical context. Building on this theoretical analysis, the paper seeks to identify tools and criteria for measuring industrial sovereignty in Morocco. This is achieved through a comprehensive vision that not only enriches the conceptual understanding of the concept but also offers practical insights for its application in comparable economic contexts. By bridging theoretical exploration and historical analysis, the study aspires to advance the discourse on industrial sovereignty and its implications for economic resilience and strategic autonomy. |
| Abstract: | Durant ces dernières années, le monde a connu de profondes transformations nécessitant la réévaluation et la reformulation des concepts économiques afin de les adapter aux exigences d'un contexte en perpétuelle mutation. Face à ces évolutions, la communauté scientifique se doit de privilégier l'étude de ces concepts, en particulier de la souveraineté industrielle selon une perspective multidimensionnelle et cognitive. La présente recherche s'appuie sur une revue exploratoire (scoping review) menée selon une approche flexible et itérative, visant à cartographier les différentes dimensions de la notion de souveraineté industrielle. Elle mobilise également une analyse conceptuelle destinée à clarifier les concepts clés et les cadres d'analyse associés. Cette recherche mobilise également une démarche narrative et critique, en retraçant l'évolution des stratégies industrielles marocaines dans leur contexte historique et géopolitique. En se basant sur cette analyse théorique, ce travail de recherche vise à identifier les outils et critères permettant d'évaluer la souveraineté industrielle au Maroc. Cette démarche s'inscrit dans une vision globale, qui vise non seulement à enrichir la compréhension théorique du concept, mais aussi à fournir des pistes empiriques pour son application dans des contextes économiques similaires. En articulant l'exploration théorique et l'analyse historique, cette étude ambitionne de faire progresser la réflexion sur la souveraineté industrielle, tout en soulignant ses implications sur la résilience économique et l'autonomie stratégique. |
| Keywords: | Sovereignty, industry, evolution, old-new, paradigm., Souveraineté, industrie, évolution, ancien-nouveau, paradigme. |
| Date: | 2025–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05111573 |
| By: | Mahdi Kohan Sefidi |
| Abstract: | Financial crises often occur without warning, yet markets leading up to these events display increasing volatility and complex interdependencies across multiple sectors. This study proposes a novel approach to predicting market crises by combining multilayer network analysis with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, using Granger causality to capture within-layer connections and Random Forest to model interlayer relationships. Specifically, we utilize Granger causality to model the temporal dependencies between market variables within individual layers, such as asset prices, trading values, and returns. To represent the interactions between different market variables across sectors, we apply Random Forest to model the interlayer connections, capturing the spillover effects between these features. The LSTM model is then trained to predict market instability and potential crises based on the dynamic features of the multilayer network. Our results demonstrate that this integrated approach, combining Granger causality, Random Forest, and LSTM, significantly enhances the accuracy of market crisis prediction, outperforming traditional forecasting models. This methodology provides a powerful tool for financial institutions and policymakers to better monitor systemic risks and take proactive measures to mitigate financial crises. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.11019 |
| By: | Xiangyun Yin (Faculty of Economics, Osaka University of Economics and Law and Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN); Yosuke Sasaki (Faculty of Economics, Niigata Sangyo University and Center for Computational Social Science, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | A substantial proportion of Chinese families comprises three generations living together. This study employed data extracted from the 2010 China Family Panel to examine the differences between grandparent- and parentheaded households in the allocation of family resources to children's education and investigate the causes of these differences. Additionally, we examined the role of children's educational stage in influencing the differences in educational expenditure when grandparents or parents served as family heads. Based on the Tobit regression, we found that parent-headed households spend more on education than grandparent-headed households. This difference may arise because parents' decision-making regarding educational expenditure is more altruistic than that of grandparents. We suggest that parents serving as both household heads and primary caregivers benefit children's education. This study fills an important literature gap because it highlights the family head's significance in three-generation households and also elucidates the differences between grandparents and parents in their motives for educational expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Three-generation; Grandparents; Education expenditure; Altruism; Exchange motive |
| JEL: | D64 D91 D13 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-21 |
| By: | Yixuan Huang; Kailai Wang; Jian Shi |
| Abstract: | The transition to hydrogen powered transportation requires regionally tailored yet scalable infrastructure planning. This study presents the first Texas specific, multi-period mixed integer optimization model for hydrogen transportation from 2025 to 2050, addressing challenges in infrastructure phasing, asset coordination, and multimodal logistics. The framework introduces three innovations: (1) phased deployment with delayed investment constraints, (2) dynamic modeling of fleet aging and replacement, and (3) a clustering-based hub structure enabling adaptive two-stage hydrogen delivery. Simulations show pipeline deployment supports up to 94.8% of hydrogen flow by 2050 under high demand, reducing transport costs by 23% compared to vehicle-based systems. However, one-year construction delays reduce pipeline coverage by over 60%, shifting reliance to costlier road transport. While the study focuses on Texas, its modular design and adaptable inputs apply to other regions. It provides a tool for policy makers and stakeholders to manage hydrogen transitions under logistical and economic constraints. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.13918 |
| By: | Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah |
| Abstract: | Non-cognitive skills are key predictors of central life outcomes such as educational attainment, earnings and health outcomes. Despite their fundamental importance, we know surprisingly little about how these skills form. This project advances our understanding of the formation of non-cognitive skills in childhood and adolescence. In defining non-cognitive skills, we adopt an interdisciplinary approach that encompasses both economic preferences and personality traits. Skill measurement relies on incentivized experiments and validated survey scales. By combining the collection of four waves of panel data on non-cognitive skills of 3, 000 whole families with a randomized controlled trial, we provide causal evidence on investments as possible drivers of skill formation on top of cutting-edge descriptive evidence. Children in 135 elementary schools in Bangladesh were randomly assigned to participation in the social and emotional learning program Lions Quest (LQ) that is designed to enhance children's non-cognitive skills. Using the model of skill formation as a common underlying theoretical framework, our findings on skill formation between age 6 and 18 include the following: Participation in LQ increases children's self-control and prosociality. Our results indicate sensitive periods in the formation of self-control and patience around ages 7-9; prosociality is similarly malleable throughout ages 7-11. Participation in LQ also increases children's educational attainment, which in part seems to operate through improving LQ teachers' teaching style. Using our panel data, we go beyond previous cross-sectional evidence by studying the dynamic, within individual development of children's preferences over time. We provide first evidence on self productivity and cross-fertilization of children's preferences. We demonstrate that parents' mental health, their parenting style and investments into children are important sources of the substantial heterogeneity in children's preference trajectories. Based on a novel experimental measure of parental paternalism, we show that most parents interfere paternalistically in their children's intertemporal decision-making to (effectively) mitigate their present bias. Finally, our results highlight the importance of the local environment beyond the family for the formation of children's preferences. We find that adverse shocks such as natural catastrophes can reverse the typical age trajectory of patience, challenging the common notion that patience universally increases as children grow. Using spatial autoregressive models and Kriging, we show that models with spatial components explain a considerable part of so far unexplained variation in children's preferences. In sum, our findings promote basic research on the formation of non-cognitive skills and offer advice to parents, teachers and policy makers on how to foster the development of children's skills. |
| Abstract: | Aktuelle Forschung verdeutlicht, dass nicht-kognitive Fähigkeiten starke Vorhersagekraft für zentrale Lebensergebnisse wie Bildungs- und beruflichen Erfolg oder Gesundheit besitzen. Trotz ihrer enormen Bedeutung ist aber weitgehend unerforscht, wie nicht-kognitive Fähigkeiten in Kindheit und Jugend entstehen. Hier setzt unser Projekt an. Die zugrundeliegende Definition nicht-kognitiver Fähigkeiten umfasst dabei sowohl Zeit-, Risiko- und soziale Präferenzen als auch Persönlichkeitseigenschaften, die wir mit incentivierten Experimenten und validierten Fragebogenmaßen messen. Die Kombination aus 4 Wellen Paneldaten zu den nicht-kognitiven Fähigkeiten 3.000 ganzer Familien und einem kontrolliert randomisierten Experiment ermöglicht es, innovative deskriptive und kausale Evidenz zur Rolle von Investitionen für die Herausbildung von nicht-kognitiven Fähigkeiten im Alter von 6 bis 18 Jahren bereitzustellen. Kinder aus 135 Grundschulen in Bangladesch wurden zufällig der Teilnahme am Programm Lions Quest (LQ) zugeordnet, das darauf abzielt, ihre nicht-kognitiven Fähigkeiten zu fördern. Auf der Grundlage des Modells zur Entstehung von Fähigkeiten von Heckman und Koautoren haben wir u.a. folgende Forschungsergebnisse gewonnen: Die Teilnahme an LQ erhöht neben dem Lernerfolg auch die Selbstkontrolle und Prosozialität der Kinder. Das Alter von 7-9 stellt eine sensitive Periode für die Entwicklung von Selbstkontrolle und Geduld dar, während Prosozialität über die gesamte Grundschulzeit hinweg in ähnlichem Ausmaß formbar ist. Die Paneldatenanalyse erlaubt es, jenseits der bisherigen Querschnittsanalysen die dynamische Entwicklung der Präferenzen von Kindern auf individueller Ebene zu untersuchen. So stellen wir erste Evidenz zur Selbstproduktivität und gegenseitigen Förderung von ökonomischen Präferenzen der Kinder bereit. Wir zeigen, dass die mentale Gesundheit der Eltern, ihr Erziehungsstil und ihre Investitionen in ihre Kinder wichtige Ursachen für deren unterschiedliche Präferenzentwicklung sind. Mit Hilfe eines neuen experimentellen Maßes für elterlichen Paternalismus dokumentieren wir, dass die Mehrheit der Eltern in die intertemporalen Entscheidungen ihrer Kinder eingreift, um deren Gegenwartsverzerrung (effektiv) abzumildern. Wir zeigen außerdem, wie wichtig die lokale Umgebung jenseits der Familie für die Präferenzentwicklung der Kinder ist. Negative Shocks wie Naturkatastrophen können das typische Entwicklungsmuster einer mit dem Alter zunehmenden Geduld ins Gegenteil verkehren. Empirische Modelle, die räumliche Komponenten berücksichtigen, erklären einen großen Anteil der bisher unerklärten Variation in den Präferenzen der Kinder. Die neuen Einsichten unseres Forschungsprogramms bringen nicht nur die Grundlagenforschung zur Entstehung nicht-kognitiver Fähigkeiten entscheidend voran, sondern bieten auch Eltern, Lehrern und Politikern Hilfestellung, wie sie die Entwicklung nicht-kognitiver Fähigkeiten bei Kindern und Jugendlichen unterstützen können. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:321337 |
| By: | Reher, Leonie; Thomä, Jörg; Bizer, Kilian |
| Abstract: | This paper advances the empirical measurement of the Doing-Using-Interacting (DUI) mode of innovation, based on the conceptual framework of Alhusen et al. (2021) and its survey-based operationalization of Reher et al. (2024b). Using data from German SMEs, we examine whether the three-dimensional structure of DUI learning theorized in the literature can be mirrored empirically. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) confirms this latent structure by identifying three main learning processes: (1) DUI internal (learning-by-doing and internal interaction), (2) DUI user-driven (learning-by-using), and (3) DUI external (learning-by-externalinteraction). However, some factor loadings are problematic, suggesting that not all of the original indicators are suitable for measuring the DUI mode of innovation. Secondly, building on the latent structure identified through EFA, short scales of various lengths are developed using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to address practical constraints in innovation surveys. This provides a starting point for the further development of DUI innovation indicators that are particularly suited to less RD-intensive innovation contexts, such as small firms, low-tech sectors, and lagging regions, as well as corresponding short scales. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie verbessert die empirische Messung des Doing-Using-Interacting (DUI)-Innovationsmodus auf Grundlage des konzeptionellen Rahmens von Alhusen et al. (2021) und der umfragebasierten Operationalisierung von Reher et al. (2024b). Anhand von Daten deutscher KMU wird untersucht, ob sich die in der Literatur theoretisch hergeleitete dreidimensionale Struktur des DUI-Lernens auch empirisch abbilden lässt. Eine explorative Faktorenanalyse (EFA) bestätigt diese latente Struktur, indem sie drei zentrale Lernprozesse identifiziert: 1. DUI internal: beschreibt die innerbetriebliche Bedeutung von Schulungen, Fehlerkultur, (informellen) Wissensaustauschs oder des Personalmanagements im Innovationsprozess. 2. DUI user-driven: bezieht sich auf die Einbindung von Kundenwissen in Innovationen durch Kooperation, Kundenkontakt oder Produktspezifikationen. 3. DUI external: umfasst innovationsbezogenes Lernen durch den Austausch mit Zulieferern, Wettbewerbern, Akteuren innerhalb und außerhalb des eigenen Sektors, Beratungsunternehmen und öffentlichen Institutionen sowie die Bedeutung von Netzwerken und Branchenverbänden. Einige Faktorladungen sind jedoch problematisch, was darauf hindeutet, dass nicht alle ursprünglichen Indikatoren zur Messung des DUI-Innovationsmodus geeignet sind. Darüber hinaus werden - basierend auf der durch die EFA identifizierten latenten Struktur - mittels Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) Kurzskalen unterschiedlicher Länge entwickelt, um praktischen Einschränkungen in Innovationsumfragen zu begegnen. Dies stellt einen Ausgangspunkt für die Weiterentwicklung von DUI-Innovationsindikatoren dar, die insbesondere für weniger F&E-intensive Innovationskontexte geeignet sind - etwa in kleinen Unternehmen, in Low-Tech-Sektoren oder in strukturschwachen Regionen - sowie für entsprechende Kurzskalen. |
| Keywords: | innovation measurement, innovation indicator, modes of innovation, SMEs |
| JEL: | O30 O31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifhwps:321860 |
| By: | Tom Barkin |
| Abstract: | I am still looking to be convinced, both that demand is settling and that any weakness is feeding through to inflation. I don’t like depending solely on data. That’s why I’ve made it my priority to be on the ground every week in the hopes of understanding the economy better. There is somewhat of a disconnect between the data and what I hear on the ground. I see an economy that is much further along the path to demand normalization than much of the data would tell you. But the question is how much of this softening is feeding through to inflation. The path for inflation isn’t yet clear. That’s why I supported our decision at our last meeting to keep rates steady and wait for more information. We have time to see if we have done enough, or whether there’s more work to do. |
| Keywords: | inflation; monetary policy |
| Date: | 2023–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:r00034:101237 |
| By: | Sarun Kamolthip |
| Abstract: | This paper examines weather fluctuations’ effects on subnational economic growth in Thailand (1982-2022). The identification strategy employs fixed-effects panel regressions on plausibly exogenous yearto- year weather variations within provinces, isolating local temperature’s causal effects on economic outcomes. Results reveal a statistically significant inverted-U relationship between temperature and per capita GPP growth. These adverse effects operate as persistent growth impacts, which appear more prominent in lower-income provinces, though formal statistical differences in response functions across income levels were not observed. Agriculture is highly vulnerable, while industrial and service sectors show no significant direct temperature impacts in this analysis. Integrating these estimates with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections, future damages are widespread and severe. Without bias-correction, climate change is projected to reduce per capita output for 63-86% of Thai population, with median GDP per capita impacts from -4% to +56% (RCP4.5) and -52% to -15% (RCP8.5). However, accounting for climate model biases, even without lagged dynamics, median losses increase to 57-63% (RCP4.5) and 80-86% (RCP8.5). With lagged temperature effects, projections show substantially higher losses, leading to near-total output loss by 2090 with negligible positive likelihood. These findings highlight critical masked within-country disparities, as initial benefits in colder regions are reduced. This projection sensitivity underscores significant caveats in quantifying future economic burdens. Policy implications stress the imperative for decentralized, tailored responses leveraging granular data for highly vulnerable provinces. The persistent growth effects necessitate urgent proactive adaptation strategies, including investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, particularly for vulnerable agricultural regions. |
| Keywords: | Weather fluctuations; Economic growth; Thailand |
| JEL: | O44 Q51 Q53 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:235 |
| By: | Alexander Kohlhas; Vladimir Asriyan |
| Abstract: | We document a substantial rise in the accuracy of U.S. firms' expectations since the early 2000s, closely linked to firm-size dynamics and consistent with major advances in data-processing technologies. To study the macroeconomic implications, we develop a model of information production, in which information enables firms to optimize their scale, product choice, and pricing strategies. While information enhances the efficiency of resource allocation, it also facilitates price discrimination. The laissez-faire equilibrium is inefficient, warrants corrective policy interventions, and advances in data-processing technologies have ambiguous effects on social welfare. Calibrating our model to U.S. firm-level data, we find that data-processing advances have significantly increased TFP over the past two decades (5.3-6.7%), primarily by helping firms determine their optimal scale. Yet, the welfare benefits of these improvements have been modest (0.1-2.1%). Restricting data use, especially by large firms, could trigger larger welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | price discrimination, misallocation, rent-extraction, information frictions, expectations, optimal policy, data economy, product choice, data regulation |
| JEL: | E10 E60 C53 D83 D84 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1486 |
| By: | Thomas F. Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Paul Fisher (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Hamish Low (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2025–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/25 |
| By: | Trevor J. Bakker; Stefanie DeLuca; Eric A. English; Jamie Fogel; Nathaniel Hendren; Daniel Herbst |
| Abstract: | We construct new population-level linked administrative data to study households' access to credit in the United States. These data reveal large differences in credit access by race, class, and hometown. By age 25, Black individuals, those who grew up in low-income families, and those who grew up in certain areas (including the Southeast and Appalachia) have significantly lower credit scores than other groups. Consistent with lower scores generating credit constraints, these individuals have smaller balances, more credit inquiries, higher credit card utilization rates, and greater use of alternative higher-cost forms of credit. Tests for alternative definitions of algorithmic bias in credit scores yield results in opposite directions. From a calibration perspective, group-level differences in credit scores understate differences in delinquency: conditional on a given credit score, Black individuals and those from low-income families fall delinquent at relatively higher rates. From a balance perspective, these groups receive lower credit scores even when comparing those with the same future repayment behavior. Addressing both of these biases and expanding credit access to groups with lower credit scores requires addressing group-level differences in delinquency rates. These delinquencies emerge soon after individuals access credit in their early twenties, often due to missed payments on credit cards, student loans, and other bills. Comprehensive measures of individuals' income profiles, income volatility, and observed wealth explain only a small portion of these repayment gaps. In contrast, we find that the large variation in repayment across hometowns mostly reflects the causal effect of childhood exposure to these places. Places that promote upward income mobility also promote repayment and expand credit access even conditional on income, suggesting that common place-level factors may drive behaviors in both credit and labor markets. We discuss suggestive evidence for several mechanisms that drive our results, including the role of social and cultural capital. We conclude that gaps in credit access by race, class, and hometown have roots in childhood environments. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-45 |
| By: | Ezeofor, Vivian Kaife |
| Abstract: | This article takes the bird view of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) to rigorously evaluate the intersection of international trade law and climate governance. Although the EUDR aim to reduce global deforestation by imposing due diligence obligation on EU importers and thus determining EU market access for certain commodities, the article critiques its conformity to international trade rules, global justice and normative balance. It analyzes how environmental trade measures can bolster structural inequalities and undermine the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR). Synthesizing insights from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and normative critiques by scholars such as Luterbacher, Gupta, and Cornell, the article argues that the EUDR’s unilateral design compounded by its extra territorial effect fosters disproportionate compliance burdens on Global South exporters without procedural reciprocity or transitional support. It asserts that equitable and effective climate governance demands regulatory instruments that aligns ecological urgency with historical accountability, sensitivity to varying capacities, and inclusive participation. |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mfjcd_v1 |
| By: | de Assis, Dércio (University of Nottingham); Ghosh, Arpita (University of Exeter); Oreffice, Sonia (University of Exeter); Quintana-Domeque, Climent (University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | Do non-fatal strangulation laws save lives? Non-fatal strangulation (NFS) is a common and dangerous form of intimate partner violence (IPV) and a predictor of homicide, yet it was historically neglected by the criminal justice system. Since the year 2000, most U.S. states have enacted laws enlisting NFS as a standalone criminal offense. We compile a novel dataset on state NFS statutes and link it to the FBI Supplementary Homicide Reports from 1990 to 2019 to estimate the causal effects of these laws on IPH rates. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, and an estimator that accounts for staggered adoption and treatment heterogeneity, we find that NFS laws led to significant reductions in IPH rates. We estimate that these laws reduce female-victim IPH by 14% and male-victim IPH by 36%, among victims aged 18-34. No significant effects are observed for victims 50 and above or for homicides committed by strangers. Event-study estimates support the parallel trends assumption. Our findings suggest that NFS laws can disrupt the escalation of IPV and reduce lethal outcomes. |
| Keywords: | intimate partner violence, gender, difference-in-differences, criminal justice policy |
| JEL: | C21 I18 J12 J16 J78 K14 K42 N92 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18006 |
| By: | Nesrine Faraj (UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin); Valentina Maruzzo (UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin); Iacopo Benesperi (UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin); Antoine Bousquet (IPREM - Institut des sciences analytiques et de physico-chimie pour l'environnement et les materiaux - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Anna Lushnikova (LOCIE - LabOratoire proCédés énergIe bâtimEnt - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marcello Baricco (UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin); Francesca Brunetti (Università degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata [Roma, Italia] = University of Rome Tor Vergata [Rome, Italy] = Université de Rome Tor Vergata [Rome, Italie]); Christophe Menezo (LOCIE - LabOratoire proCédés énergIe bâtimEnt - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Christine Lartigau-Dagron (IPREM - Institut des sciences analytiques et de physico-chimie pour l'environnement et les materiaux - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nadia Barbero (UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | The transition to renewable energy sources is critical for addressing climate change and achieving sustainable development, especially in environmentally sensitive regions such as mountain areas. Mountains are extremely heterogeneous: they show unique features in terms of climate, topography and biodiversity, which makes them and their local populations more vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change and energy poverty. This review explores the specific challenges and opportunities associated with the implementation of renewable energies in mountain areas, with a particular focus on the Alps. It addresses the issue of energy poverty – a situation in which a household is not able to afford or is lacking access to essential energy services – and it provides a focus on the effects of climate change on mountain areas. This review also discusses the advantages and disadvantages in the potential use of various kinds of renewable energy sources in mountainous regions, including solar, wind, hydropower, and biomass; especially in the context of the Alps' unique environmental and socio-economic conditions. Despite the promising availability of these resources, some of them have not been extensively applied yet in this area, such as wind and solar power. Biomass and hydropower, on the other hand, have been largely exploited. Finally, an overview of the available energy storage systems is given, along with some practical examples of simulation or implementation of plants, highlighting the crucial role of storage and integration technologies in enhancing the reliability and efficiency of renewable energy systems in mountainous terrains. |
| Keywords: | Alpine region, Climate change, Energy poverty, Mountain areas, Renewable energies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05156785 |
| By: | Bardt, Hubertus |
| Abstract: | Für die zukünftige Verteidigungsfinanzierung sind zwei zentrale Entscheidungen gefallen. Zum einen wurde im Vorfeld des NATO-Gipfels in Den Haag ein neues Ausgabenziel des Verteidigungsbündnisses beschlossen. Zum anderen hat die Bundesregierung einen neuen Haushaltsentwurf vorgelegt. Deutschland wird den Aufwuchs der Verteidigungsausgaben in den nächsten Jahren entsprechend der NATO-Vereinbarung erreichen - aber zu zwei Dritteln über verteidigungsbedingte Kredite finanzieren. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:320469 |
| By: | Ladha, Rijhul; Das Banerjee, Anannya; Bhattacharya, Tattaiyya; Ramji, Aditya |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5r47c2bt |
| By: | Jan van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute) |
| Abstract: | Around 50 years ago, the Netherlands decriminalized cannabis for recreational use. This paper uses retrospective data on the ages at which individuals began and ceased cannabis use to reconstruct its prevalence in Amsterdam during the period surrounding the policy change. This approach enables a detailed analysis of the policy’s effects. The main conclusion is that the introduction of this policy did not lead to an increase in the prevalence of cannabis use. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250009 |
| By: | Aylin Aslan; Burcu Zuhal Iman Er |
| Abstract: | [TR] Reel sektorun yabanci para (YP) cinsinden varlik ve yukumluluklerinin duzenli olarak takip edilmesi finansal istikrar acisindan onem tasimaktadir. Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) bunyesinde kurulmus olan Sistemik Risk Veri Takip Sistemi (SRVTS), finansal olmayan firmalarin doviz pozisyonlarinin yakindan izlenmesine olanak saglamaktadir. Bu calismada, belirtilen sistem kapsaminda 2021 yili ocak ayindan itibaren verisi temin edilen, veri kalitesi kontrolleri sonucunda tutarli bulunan ve sektor temsil gucu yuksek olan firmalarin bilancolarindaki kur uyumsuzlugu incelenmektedir. Borclarin varliklara oraninin kur esnekligi olarak tanimlanan kur uyumsuzlugu kisa vadede sifira yakin ve 2024 yili basina kadar YP varlik payinin yuksek oldugunu gosterirken, uzun vadede YP yukumluluklerin payi daha yuksektir. Ayrica, bu firmalarin icerisinde dis ticaret islemleri bulunan firmalarin YP pozisyonunun belirleyicileri, firma seviyesindeki mikro veriler ile kur, beklenen enflasyon, faiz, cikti acigi ve kredi temerrut takasi (CDS) gibi makro veriler kullanilarak tahmin edilmistir. Sonuclar, vade yapisina gore farklilik gostermektedir. Kisa vadede firmalarin YP pozisyonuyla kur degisiminin ters yonlu iliskili oldugu bulgulanmistir. Uzun vadede ise ihracat ve beklenen enflasyonun YP pozisyonunu pozitif yonde etkiledigi gorulmustur. Ek olarak, her iki vade kiriliminda da kur oynakligindaki artisin firmalarin doviz pozisyonlari uzerinde artirici yonde etkili oldugu izlenmistir. Tahminler, imalat sektoru firmalari ve nette ihracatci firmalar icin tekrarlandiginda bulgular orneklem genelinden farklilik gostermemektedir. [EN] Monitoring the foreign currency assets and liabilities of the real sector regularly is crucial for financial stability. Systemic Risk Data Monitoring System, established within the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, enables close monitoring of the foreign exchange positions of non-financial companies. In this study, the exchange rate mismatch in the balance sheets of companies, whose data were obtained since January 2021 within the scope of system, which are found to be consistent as a result of data quality checks, and have high sector representation is examined. The exchange rate mismatch, defined as the exchange rate elasticity of the ratio of liabilities to assets, is close to zero in the short term and shows that the share of FX assets is high until the beginning of 2024, while the share of FX liabilities is higher in the long term. Furthermore, the determinants of foreign currency positions for firms involved in foreign trade operations are estimated using firm-specific micro data and macroeconomic data such as exchange rates, expected inflation, interest rates, output gap, and credit default swaps (CDS). Analysis results are different depending on the maturity structure. In the short term, it is found that the FX position of the firms is negatively affected by the exchange rate change in a statistically significant way. In the long term, it is seen that the export and expected inflation variables affect the FX position positively. It is also found that the exchange rate volatility has a positive effect on the FX positions of the firms in both maturity breakdowns. The estimates are repeated for manufacturing sector firms and net exporting firms and the results do not differ from the overall sample. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2509 |
| By: | Tom Barkin |
| Date: | 2025–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:r00034:101214 |
| By: | Castagno, Elisa (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:1d0fd971-f83d-4534-8a9e-990cf8e2fd96 |
| By: | Bhargava, Pranay |
| Abstract: | In India, entrepreneurship is often reduced to skilling combined with nano-finance. Public programs largely wash their hands after budgeting for short-term training, linking to microfinance, and creating shared infrastructure — all designed to serve large numbers of mass entrepreneurs at subsistence levels. This paper takes a 180-degree sharp reversal of that approach. It argues that by ignoring the more aspirational, growth-ready entrepreneurs — those sitting at the top of the local entrepreneurial networks — current policies are actually promoting enterprises sub-optimally, and failing to unlock the real potential of India’s unincorporated sector. The paper proposes an Acceleration Model focused on identifying and backing Barefoot Unicorns — the high-aspiration HWEs and αHWEs strategically positioned at the top of local entrepreneurial networks — through adaptive incubation, behavioral conditioning, flexible finance (revenue-based financing, micro-equity), and network-driven scale, aligned to the unpredictable, non-linear journey toward Product–Market Fit (PMF). Even a modest shift could unlock 18 crore new jobs. This paper offers a strategic blueprint for governments, catalysts, CSR, incubators, investors, lenders, and DPI ecosystem actors to move beyond outcome-poor schemes towards high-leverage, ROI-maximizing entrepreneurship models. |
| Keywords: | MSME policy India; MSME job creation; Revenue-based financing; Rural entrepreneurship; Micro enterprises; MSME cluster development; High-growth entrepreneurship; MSME incubation; Mass entrepreneurship vs high-growth entrepreneurship; Entrepreneurial ecosystem design; Barefoot Unicorns; Hired Worker Enterprises (HWE); Micro-equity; Flexible Finance; Incubator micro enterprises; |
| JEL: | G23 I38 J21 L26 M13 O12 O17 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125170 |
| By: | Dorosh, Paul A.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Cereal production and markets, key components of Sudan’s food economy, have changed dramatically in the last decade due to conflict-related disruptions, as well as earlier changes in government policy. In western Sudan, particularly Darfur and surrounding regions, ongoing conflict has severely hindered agricultural activities, leading to a sharp decline in domestic cereal production. In contrast, other regions of Sudan have maintained relatively stable planting and harvesting activities, although marketing costs have risen substantially. |
| Keywords: | trade; cereals; markets; agricultural production; price volatility; models; food security; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:175164 |
| By: | Witte, Marc J. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Roth, Johanna (Sciences Po); Hardy, Morgan (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Meyer, Christian Johannes (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We present findings from an at-scale randomized trial of a government program providing public employment services in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with up-to-date vacancy information. Before the program, women with relatively less education searched more narrowly with worse labor market outcomes than the rest of our representative sample of relevant job seekers. These women also have lower direct intervention take-up than the rest of the sample. However, only these women significantly increase applications, receive more offers, shift from household enterprise work to wage employment, and experience higher earnings in response to the intervention. These employment impacts are larger than can be explained by vacancies directly curated through the intervention. Instead, these women adjust search behavior, expectations, and employment aspirations more broadly. Notably, offers come through friends and family networks, their modal baseline search method, underscoring the potential role of social networks in disseminating employment information to the most marginalized job seekers. |
| Keywords: | marginalized job seekers, labor market frictions, public employment services, randomized controlled trial (RCT) |
| JEL: | J08 J16 J64 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18005 |