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on Investment |
| By: | Dean Hyslop (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); David Maré (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Lily Stelling (University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the effects of dramatic increases in minimum wages on wage inequality in New Zealand since 2000. Over this period the adult minimum wage increased more than 75% in CPI-adjusted real terms, and applicable minimum wages for teenagers increased by more than 200%. There has been broad-based wage growth across the distribution, with remarkably stable growth of about 30% (1.2% per annum) across the top-half of the wage distribution, and substantially stronger at lower quantiles (up to 66% at the 5th percentile). This has compressed the lower tail, and reduced wage inequality: between 1997-2000 and 2020-2023, the standard deviation of log(wages) fell by 16%, while the log-difference between the 50th and 10th percentiles of wages (50-10 gap) fell by 28% compared to a small (4%) increase in the 90-50 gap. Adapting the DiNardo, Fortin and Lemieux (1996) methodology to assess the contributions of changes in worker characteristics, economic (wage) returns to characteristics and the minimum wage to changes in wage inequality over this period, we conclude that minimum wage increases explain most of the reduction in wage inequality (about 90% of the 50-10 change, and 70% of the change in the standard deviation of log(wages)), while changes in worker characteristics modestly increased wages and inequality, and changes in returns reduced inequality slightly. However, there has been an unexplained increase in the density between the recent minimum and median wages: differences between male and female wage changes are consistent with recent pay equity settlements being a contributing factor, together with minimum wage spillover effects. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wages, wage distribution, wage inequality, spillovers |
| JEL: | J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:25_04 |
| By: | Nicolas Gonzalez-Pampillon; Javier Vazquez-Grenno |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a substantial minimum wage increase in Uruguay - a middle-income developing economy - on wages and employment. Using administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we analyze the consequences of a 2005 policy reform that raised the real minimum wage by 80% within a year. Our findings show that the reform led to significant wage gains for low-wage earners, with at most minimal negative effects on employment. Survey data further reveal no significant changes in unemployment or informality, suggesting the reform did not distort labor market dynamics. To contextualize these results, we investigate compliance with minimum wage laws and document a post-reform decline in compliance, particularly among low-wage workers. This pattern aligns with firms' cost-benefit trade-offs under weak enforcement of wage regulations. Our study contributes to the literature by providing causal evidence on the labor market effects of minimum wage policies in a developing economy, underscoring the pivotal role of enforcement in shaping policy outcomes. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, labour market, compliance with the law |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2096 |
| By: | Omar Chisari; Antonio Estache |
| Abstract: | We rely on a simple choice model of hospital-capacity decisions to highlight the relevance of policymakers’ behavioural biases in the management of health care demand uncertainty. We show that matching ex-ante the design of the fiscal approach to financing hospitals with the policymakers’ behavioural biases could reduce care-rationing risks. However, the effectiveness of the financing choice also depends on the levels of operational and social costs the policymakers decide to work with in their assessments of needs. The model can also be used ex-post to reveal undeclared behavioural biases and use this information to improve future financing policy designs. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, behavioural biases, hospital capacity, health care financing, social cost valuation |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/391422 |
| By: | Yea, Sangjun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Hyuk-Hwang (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Eom, Jun Hyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Shin, Euncheol (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Jinhyuk (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 최근 주요국들은 디지털ㆍ그린 전환, 첨단기술 확보 경쟁, 경제안보를 위한 공급망 안정화 등을 기치로 전략산업 내 기업에 대한 지원 정책을 강화하고 있다. 그중 전략산업에 대한 기업의 투자를 정부가 직간접적으로 지원하는, 이른바 전략적 투자보조금 정책의 증가가 두드러진다. 주요국 정부가 지정한 전략산업이 일반적으로 부가가치가 높거나 미래의 성장동력으로서 잠재력이 높은 산업과 일치하는 경우가 많은 가운데, 해당 산업에서 유수의 다국적기업을 보유한 한국은 이러한 변화의 직접적인 영향을 받게 될 가능성이 크다. 대표적인 예로 미국의 인플레이션 감축법과 반도체 과학법을 근거로 제공되는 전략적 투자보조금은 많은 다국적기업의 투자 결정과 글로벌 공급망 재편에 중대한 영향을 미치고 있다. 미국 외에도 EU와 일본, 중국과 같은 주요국들 역시 전략적 투자보조금 정책을 시행하고 있고 앞으로도 중요 다국적기업에 대한 정책 지원이 계속될 것이므로, 한국정부는 이와 같이 변화하는 통상환경에 대비하면서 이러한 변화를 기회로 삼아 글로벌 경쟁력을 지속적으로 유지할 수 있는 방안을 모색해야 할 것이다. Recently, major countries have been strengthening support policies for companies in strategic industries, emphasizing digital and green transitions, competition to secure advanced technologies, and supply chain stabilization for economic security. Among these, the increase in so-called strategic investment subsidies, where governments directly or indirectly support corporate investments in strategic industries, is particularly notable. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | strategic investment subsidies; FDI; NIPO; GTA database; Temporary Crisis Framework |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2024_023 |
| By: | Eduardo D‡vila (Yale University); AndrŽs Rodr’guez-Clare (UC Berkeley); Andreas Schaab (UC Berkeley); Stacy Tan (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | The classic tariff formula states that the optimal unilateral tariff equals the inverse of the foreign export supply elasticity. We generalize this result and show that an intertemporal tariff formula characterizes the efficient tariff in a large class of dynamic heterogeneous agent (HA) economies with multiple goods. Intertemporal export supply elasticities and relative tariff revenue weights are sufficient statistics for the optimal tariff that decentralizes the efficient allocation. We also develop a general theory of second-best optimal tariffs. In dynamic HA incomplete markets economies, Ramsey optimal tariffs trade off intertemporal terms of trade manipulation against production efficiency, risk-sharing, and redistribution. Intertemporal export supply elasticities and relative tariff revenue weights remain sufficient statistics for the intertemporal terms of trade manipulation motive of second-best optimal tariffs. We apply our results to a quantitative heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with trade. |
| Date: | 2025–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2444 |
| By: | Kim, Gyupan (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Hyong-Kun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Boram (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Seung-Hyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Son, Wonju (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 2020년대 들어 한국과 일본 양국 정부는 국내 산업기반의 DX(디지털전환), GX(녹색전환)를 추진하는 과정에서 글로벌 공급망 재편과 함께 핵심광물자원의 공급망 단절 위기에 직면하자 각종 전략, 시책, 법률 제정을 통해 핵심광물의 공급망 안정화에 정책역량을 집중하고 있다. 한국정부는 2023년 2월 「핵심광물 확보전략」을 통해 배터리 5대 금속과 희토류 등 금속광물을 핵심광물로 지정하는 것을 시작으로, 2024년 2월에는 「국가자원안보 특별법」을 제정(2025년 2월 시행)하였다. 일본 역시 한국보다는 다소 이른 시점인 2022년 5월 「경제안전보장추진법」을 제정하였고, 이에 근거하여 2022년 12월에는 핵심광물을 11개 특정중요물자(국가전략물자) 중 하나로 지정하였고, 2024년 3월에는 중국의 희귀금속 수출통제에 대한 대응의 일환으로 갈륨, 게르마늄, 우라늄을 국가전략물자로 추가 지정하였다. In the 2020s, the Korean and Japanese governments faced a crisis involving supply chain disruptions of critical mineral resources alongside the reorganization of global supply chains due to efforts to promote digital transformation (DX) and green transformation (GX) within their domestic industrial bases. To address these issues, both the Korean and Japanese governments have concentrated their policy capabilities on stabilizing the supply chain for critical minerals through various strategies, policies, and legislation related to critical minerals. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | MSP; global supply chain; EV battery metal; non-ferrous metal |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2024_009 |
| By: | Stephane Hess; Sander van Cranenburgh |
| Abstract: | Travel behaviour modellers have an increasingly diverse set of models at their disposal, ranging from traditional econometric structures to models from mathematical psychology and data-driven approaches from machine learning. A key question arises as to how well these different models perform in prediction, especially when considering trips of different characteristics from those used in estimation, i.e. out-of-distribution prediction, and whether better predictions can be obtained by combining insights from the different models. Across two case studies, we show that while data-driven approaches excel in predicting mode choice for trips within the distance bands used in estimation, beyond that range, the picture is fuzzy. To leverage the relative advantages of the different model families and capitalise on the notion that multiple `weak' models can result in more robust models, we put forward the use of a model averaging approach that allocates weights to different model families as a function of the \emph{distance} between the characteristics of the trip for which predictions are made, and those used in model estimation. Overall, we see that the model averaging approach gives larger weight to models with stronger behavioural or econometric underpinnings the more we move outside the interval of trip distances covered in estimation. Across both case studies, we show that our model averaging approach obtains improved performance both on the estimation and validation data, and crucially also when predicting mode choices for trips of distances outside the range used in estimation. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.03693 |
| By: | Gereffi, Gary |
| Abstract: | México ha sido una plataforma habitual de nearshoring para la economía estadounidense en las últimas décadas. Sin embargo, las características y el grado de integración de México en América del Norte, así como su capacidad para crear y captar rentas de valor e innovación en sus principales industrias nacionales, han variado con el tiempo. Ejemplos previos de nearshoring en México en las industrias automotriz, textil y de confecciones, así como acuerdos comerciales regionales como el TLCAN y el T-MEC y conflictos comerciales internacionales como la guerra comercial entre los Estados Unidos y China, han convertido a México en posible candidato para aprovechar las recientes políticas industriales de los Estados Unidos dirigidas a fortalecer las cadenas de suministroproductivas estratégicas estadounidenses. Las actuales oportunidades de nearshoring de los Estados Unidos en industrias como los semiconductores, los vehículos eléctricos, los ingredientes farmacéuticos activos y los minerales de tierras raras como el litio, requerirán políticas industriales activas en México relacionadas con la infraestructura (por ejemplo: puertos, electricidad, agua), la atracción de inversión extranjera directa adecuada, el desarrollo de capacidades en las empresas locales y de una mano de obra calificada para las nuevas industrias. Si bien en México se están realizando algunas inversiones a nivel subnacional, una respuesta nacional más centrada multiplicará los beneficios potenciales del nearshoring para México. |
| Date: | 2025–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:81250 |
| By: | HAN, Seoni (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Cho, Sunghun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Yejin (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); KIM, Joo Hye (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Seo, Sang-hyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 글로벌 탄소중립과 산업 패러다임의 변화로 글로벌 경제 기반이 기존의 연료 집약적(fuel-intensive) 시스템에서 원료 집약적(material-intensive) 시스템으로 전환되는 과정에서 태양광, 태양열, 풍력, 수력, 지열 등과 같은 재생에너지 발전과 전기차 및 배터리 생산에 필수적인 핵심광물에 대한 경쟁이 갈수록 심화되고 있다. 핵심광물에 대한 수요는 2040년까지 3배 이상, 2050년까지는 6배 이상 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 핵심광물은 매장과 생산이 특정 몇몇 국가들에 집중되어 있어 수급이 안정적이지 않아 가격 변동성이 높고, 현재의 기술로는 대체가 어렵다. 따라서 규제 변화, 무역 통제, 정치적 불안정 등으로 인한 공급 불안정성이 높아 이에 대한 적절한 대응이 시급하다. 이에 미국, EU, 영국, 캐나다, 일본 등 주요국들은 핵심광물 공급망의 취약성을 국가안보에 대한 중대한 위협으로 인식하고, 자국 내 산업 육성과 소수의 특정국에 대한 의존도를 낮추는 것을 목적으로 핵심광물 공급망을 내재화하고 동맹국과의 협력을 확대하는 전략을 추진하고 있다. The green transition and shifts in industrial paradigms have intensified the global competition for critical minerals essential to renewable energy systems and electric vehicles. The rising demand for these minerals has created more complexities for global supply chains, presenting greater challenges compared to the era of fossil fuel. In response, both mineral producers and consumer countries are formulating strategies to enhance economic security and diversify mineral supply chains, promoting public-private partnerships as well as bilateral and multilateral cooperation. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | The green transition; global competition; Korea-Africa cooperation; |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2024_025 |
| By: | Juan M. Rodriguez-Poo; Alexandra Soberon; Stefan Sperlich |
| Abstract: | We consider identification, inference and validation of linear panel data models when both factors and factor loadings are accounted for by a nonparametric function. This general specification encompasses rather popular models such as the two-way fixed effects and the interactive fixed effects ones. By applying a conditional mean independence assumption between unobserved heterogeneity and the covariates, we obtain consistent estimators of the parameters of interest at the optimal rate of convergence, for fixed and large $T$. We also provide a specification test for the modeling assumption based on the methodology of conditional moment tests and nonparametric estimation techniques. Using degenerate and nondegenerate theories of U-statistics we show its convergence and asymptotic distribution under the null, and that it diverges under the alternative at a rate arbitrarily close to $\sqrt{NT}$. Finite sample inference is based on bootstrap. Simulations reveal an excellent performance of our methods and an empirical application is conducted. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.10690 |
| By: | Marie Coris (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Johanna Dufau (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Mercredi 7 mai, l'Assemblée nationale a adopté en première lecture une proposition de loi visant à réguler l'installation des médecins, afin de lutter contre les déserts médicaux. Mais l'identification des territoires sur- et sous-dotés en médecins n'est pas aussi simple qu'on pourrait le penser… |
| Keywords: | Santé, Médecine, Médecins, Déserts médicaux, Médecine générale |
| Date: | 2025–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05081207 |
| By: | Caldarola Bernardo (European Commission - JRC); Cresti Lorenzo; Mazzilli Dario; Napolitano Lorenzo (European Commission - JRC); Patelli Aurelio; Sbardella Angelica; Tacchella Andrea |
| Abstract: | This policy brief investigates the structural vulnerabilities and competitive dynamics of the EU27 automotive sector, with a focus on the complexity and the fragmentation of production processes across global value chains. The analysis integrates input-output tables to quantify the automotive sector's reliance on non-EU economic branches, alongside an economic complexity framework to assess the underlying productive capabilities of European countries in automotive-related industries. The findings indicate an increasing dependency on extra-EU suppliers, particularly China, for critical components such as lithium-ion batteries, which heightens supply chain risks. Currently, Eastern European countries-most notably Poland, Czechia, and Hungary-have enhanced their competitiveness in the production of automotive components, surpassing traditional leaders such as Germany. The policy brief offers new insights into the challenges posed by the ongoing electric mobility transition in the European Union, particularly in relation to electric accumulators. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc142111 |
| By: | Fikri, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | This article presents a sociological analysis of the impact of Virtual Reality (VR) technology on adolescent social interaction in Indonesia. As VR adoption grows, particularly among younger demographics, its implications for social behavior, communication patterns, and identity formation warrant critical examination. This study employs theoretical frameworks such as Symbolic Interactionism, Social Exchange Theory, and Technosocial Systems to explore how VR environments mediate face-to-face interactions, foster new online communities, and potentially alter social capital. Data from existing literature, case studies, and observational insights into Indonesian adolescent technology use are synthesized to delineate both the potential benefits, such as expanded social networks and novel communication modalities, and the challenges, including social isolation, digital divide, and the erosion of traditional social cues. The analysis suggests that while VR offers unprecedented opportunities for connection, its uncritical adoption may lead to significant shifts in the fabric of adolescent social life, necessitating a balanced understanding and proactive social policies. |
| Date: | 2025–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:p7nmv_v1 |