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on Investment |
| By: | Morshed, Monzur |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates and extends the findings of Card and Krueger’s 1994 study on the employment effects of a minimum wage increase in New Jersey. Using data from fast-food restaurants in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, the analysis applies a difference-in-differences approach to compare employment changes before and after the policy shift. The results confirm the original study’s conclusion: the minimum wage increase did not reduce employment and may have led to modest job growth. Additional analysis shows that stores initially paying lower wages experienced greater employment gains, suggesting that the policy’s impact varied across wage levels. The study reinforces the value of empirical evidence in shaping labor policy debates. |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8ut4n_v1 |
| By: | Siddhartha Chib; Kenichi Shimizu |
| Abstract: | We propose a model-based framework for estimating treatment effects in Difference-in-Differences (DiD) designs with multiple time-periods and variation in treatment timing. We first present a simple model for potential outcomes that respects the identifying conditions for the average treatment effects on the treated (ATT's). The model-based perspective is particularly valuable in applications with small sample sizes, where existing estimators that rely on asymptotic arguments may yield poor approximations to the sampling distribution of group-time ATT's. To improve parsimony and guide prior elicitation, we reparametrize the model in a way that reduces the effective number of parameters. Prior information about treatment effects is incorporated through black-box training sample priors and, in small-sample settings, by thick-tailed t-priors that shrink ATT's of small magnitudes toward zero. We provide a straightforward and computationally efficient Bayesian estimation procedure and establish a Bernstein-von Mises-type result that justifies posterior inference for the treatment effects. Simulation studies confirm that our method performs well in both large and small samples, offering credible uncertainty quantification even in settings that challenge standard estimators. We illustrate the practical value of the method through an empirical application that examines the effect of minimum wage increases on teen employment in the United States. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.18391 |
| By: | Priyaranjan Jha; Jyotsana Kala; David Neumark; Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez |
| Abstract: | We assess how minimum wage effects on restaurant employment in the U.S. vary with labor market size and monopsony power. Using city-level data, we construct monopsony proxies based on labor flows and concentration. Minimum wages bind less in larger cities, consistent with the urban wage premium, and omitting this relationship overstates how labor market power reduces adverse employment effects of minimum wages. Nonetheless, accounting for city size, lower job market fluidity is linked to weaker negative employment effects, consistent with search models. By contrast, traditional concentration measures do not consistently predict variation in the effects of minimum wages. |
| JEL: | J38 J42 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33862 |
| By: | Katarina Zigova; Thomas Zwick |
| Abstract: | We find a positive effect of minimum wages on continuing professional training. Several Swiss cantons introduced high and strongly binding minimum wages in the period 2018-2022. We apply a stacked diff-in-diff estimation model to identify the dynamic policy effect on training. Drawing on several surveys with extensive details on employees' training, we find robust evidence of an increase in training incidence and intensity. The positive effect is mainly driven by firm-financed formal training during working hours that covers contents beyond current professional activities. There are substantial ripple effects and most workers experience extra training, irrespective of their tenure and wage level. We argue that the strong minimum wage bite and our ability to measure the full dynamic training effects on all employees in treated cantons explain the difference between our findings and those in the previous theoretical and empirical literature. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, adult training, staggered policy introduction |
| JEL: | J08 J51 M53 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0242 |
| By: | Greta Morando; Sonkurt Sen |
| Abstract: | Parental beliefs about the returns to investment play a key role in shaping how parents invest in their children, yet their long-term impact on child development is understudied. Using a valueadded model in a nationally representative cohort study, we find that maternal beliefs about returns to investment, as measured by locus of control, positively influence children’s socioemotional skills from early childhood to adolescence. These beliefs have a negligible impact on cognitive skills and academic outcomes. Parental investment emerges as a key channel in this relationship, suggesting that maternal beliefs primarily shape children’s non-cognitive development through differences in how parents engage with their children. We find that intergenerational inequality in child development is partly driven by the socio-economic gradient in maternal beliefs about the returns to investment. |
| Keywords: | Parental Beliefs, Child Development, Locus of Control, Inequality |
| JEL: | D10 D91 J13 J24 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_498v2 |
| By: | Danielle H. Sandler |
| Abstract: | This technical note describes the characteristics of twins and higher order births as identified in the Census Household Composition Key (CHCK). Twins and higher order births are identified by children with the same birth date and different PIKs matched to the same mother PIK. This note covers births in the 2016-2021 Household Composition Key Files, and births between 1997-2020. By linking to the Numident, the technical note shows the percentage of same-sex versus different-sex multiples and the average age of mothers at the time of birth for singletons versus multiple births. Parent-child relationships from the 2000 Decennial Census are used to identify first- births in the household composition key. The note also provides code to replicate all of the tables and figures. |
| Keywords: | CHCK, Numident |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:25-11 |
| By: | Vaughan, Michael; Theine, Hendrik; Schieferdecker, David; Waitkus, Nora |
| Abstract: | What do we know about representations of economic inequality in media, and how well does this account for media transformations like hybridization? This article uses a systematic review of academic literature on mediated communication about economic inequality, in order to assess the current state of research around salience, framing, explanatory factors and effects of this kind of inequality discourse. We find an overwhelming focus on legacy newspapers and a small number of Global North countries. We argue for research which builds further links between studies of economic inequality and the contemporary study of communication, including moving past obsolete models of media systems, decentering a small selection of Global North countries, and building a more comparative perspective on nationally-grounded inequality discourses. |
| Keywords: | hybrid media system; wealth inequality; digitalization; economic inequality; interdisciplinarity; communication |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128075 |
| By: | Paul Janicot (CoW DAO Research); Alex Vinyas (CoW DAO Research) |
| Abstract: | Decentralized Finance (DeFi) on Ethereum has undergone significant transformations since its emergence during the DeFi summer of 2020. With the introduction of Proof of Stake (PoS) and Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS), the transaction supply chain on Ethereum has shifted from relying entirely on the public mempool for DeFi interactions to an astonishing 80% usage of private RPCs. These private RPCs submit transactions directly to builders, skipping the public mempool, while conducting Order Flow Auctions (OFAs) to capture MEV backrun rebates and gas rebates. Our findings reveal that not all RPCs OFAs produce the same outcomes. These insights underscore the significant implications of OFA design choices on transaction efficiency and execution quality, and thus why an order flow originators should pay close attention to which OFA they use. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.19708 |
| By: | Giles, John T. (World Bank); Joubert, Clement (World Bank); Tanaka, Tomoaki (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | Low- and middle-income countries are aging rapidly but stagnation of growth in participation in pension programs, due to widespread informal employment, presents a major fiscal challenge. Some claim that improving the design of pension program rules can encourage more pension contributions, while others push for universal non-contributory pensions. This paper reviews the recent academic literature on the determinants of active participation in pension systems in high-informality settings. An emerging body of evidence shows that participation responds significantly to financial incentives as well as nonfinancial obstacles. At the same time, pensions are imperfect substitutes for other strategies to cover longevity risk, including support through the family, which will remain crucial for many older people in fiscally constrained environments. Therefore, policy makers should integrate the design of contributory pensions, social pensions, and policies that facilitate other forms of elderly support, and consider how all three interact. To inform such efforts, these interactions must be more systematically investigated and the empirical evidence must be expanded beyond a small number of middle-income countries. |
| Keywords: | informality, savings, retirement, pensions, LMICs |
| JEL: | H55 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17886 |
| By: | Starobinsky, Mark |
| Abstract: | Large Language Models (LLMs) have propelled AI forward, yet they falter with static knowledge, unreliable outputs, and regulatory misalignment. Ontology-Enhanced AI, developed by OntoGuard AI, introduces a visionary framework that transcends these limits by weaving dynamic knowledge structures with sophisticated validation, tackling the Peak Data Problem head-on. Poised to transform enterprise AI with unparalleled adaptability and trust, this approach aligns with standards like GDPR and the EU AI Act. While proprietary breakthroughs remain under wraps due to a pending patent, this paper unveils the concept’s potential to captivate technical acquirers and licensees. |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fh4ue_v1 |
| By: | Benoît Faivre-Dupaigre; Emmanuel Fourmann |
| Abstract: | Project economic analysis (PEA) aims to evaluate ex-ante the various impacts of a project on all stakeholders, beyond its mere financial profitability. Long used by donors, it has come in for a lot of criticism (complexity, cost, technocracy). And, as aid practices have evolved, it has gradually given way to other approaches. Yet, in the current context, EAF remains a valuable tool for informing decisions, structuring debates, comparing options and integrating social, economic and environmental issues. This article outlines a number of avenues and recommendations for revitalizing PEA, with the aim of making public investment more profitable, inclusive and sustainable. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2025–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en18027 |
| By: | Foster, Elizabeth Mary; Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell; Ibarra, Gabriel Lara; Lakner, Christoph; Baah, Samuel Kofi Tetteh |
| Abstract: | Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed. |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11137 |
| By: | Yuan, Yating (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | A principal incentivizes a team of agents to work on a joint project. Building on Winter (2004), this paper explores a simple mechanism where agents choose between two public messages, collaborate and ‘monopolize’, and the message profile decides their bonus upon team success. The principal minimizes the total payment while ensuring full effort in outcomes that survive Iterative Elimination of Weakly Dominated Strategies. The optimal mechanism reaches the first-best payment, leaving no rent for strategic uncertainty. Unlike previous results (Winter, 2004; Halac et al., 2021; Cavounidis and Ghosh, 2021), the optimal bonus allocation is neither discriminatory nor private. Thus, effciency need not come at the cost of fairness or transparency. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1561 |
| By: | Lawrence, Alice |
| Abstract: | As blockchain technology matures, the once-isolated networks that powered individual cryptocurrencies are now converging through a new wave of interoperability solutions. Cross-chain protocols—systems that enable different blockchains to communicate and share data or assets—are rapidly reshaping the decentralized landscape. These innovations address one of the most critical limitations of early blockchain architecture: siloed ecosystems that cannot seamlessly interact. This paper explores the evolution, technical mechanisms, and real-world implementations of cross-chain interoperability, including token bridges, relays, and multi-chain platforms such as Polkadot, Cosmos, and Layer Zero. We examine how these protocols are unlocking new levels of liquidity, composability, and user experience across decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and supply chain applications. While the promise of a fully interoperable blockchain future is compelling, we also discuss the security risks, fragmentation challenges, and the ongoing tension between decentralization and performance. Ultimately, this research highlights the pivotal role of interoperability in the next phase of blockchain adoption and outlines the key players and technologies driving this transition. |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bp7gx_v1 |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Spielman, David J.; Warner, James |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes general demand- and supply-side issues for agricultural mechanization based on recent studies that focus on experiences and evidence from both Africa and Asia. The paper pro vides typologies of agricultural mechanization in Rwanda along with policy options within the context of its current mechanization support strategies. Provincial variations in agroecology and cropping systems, irrigated/rainfed systems, farm size, and labor use intensity, among other factors, characterize the key types of mechanization use in Rwanda. Support for mechanization in Rwanda can be broadly tailored to (a) irrigated medium-scale farmers in the Eastern province and Kigali; (b) rainfed medium-scale farmers in the Eastern and Southern provinces; (c) rainfed, small-scale highland farmers in the Northern province; and (d) irrigated small-scale farmers in the Western province. Recent experiences in other countries with rugged terrain and smallholder farming systems similar to Rwanda suggest that significant growth in the use of tractors is possible in the medium term among smallholders cultivating rainfed maize and legumes, in addition to irrigated rice. However, farm wages may still be too low in Rwanda and tractor-hiring fees may still be too high to induce a shift to mechanization in the short term. Therefore, it may be advisable for policy support for mechanization to focus on improving the understanding of mechanization needs among each type of farmers identified, knowledge of suitable machines, and required skills for their operations and maintenance. Such efforts should also balance the need to develop competitive markets and supply networks for promising machines, parts, and repair services at a viable and integrated market scale. |
| Keywords: | supply balance; agricultural mechanization; irrigation; farm size; smallholders; tractors; income; Rwanda; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:poshad:141685 |
| By: | Vittorio Bassi; Jung Hyuk Lee; Alessandra Peter; Tommaso Porzio; Ritwika Sen; Esau Tugume |
| Abstract: | We study the internal organization of manufacturing firms in Uganda. We measure what people do within firms and find limited specialization, far below what is feasible given the prevailing production process and average firm size of 5.7 workers. We build and estimate an occupational choice model in which firm size, productivity, and specialization arise endogenously. The model shows that firms in this setting are largely “self-employment in disguise” and generate just a 20% productivity gain over literal self-employment. In a counterfactual economy with full specialization, the same aggregate output can be produced with an average firm size of only 1.6. |
| JEL: | O11 O17 L23 L25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11900 |
| By: | Michaillat, Pascal; Saez, Emmanuel |
| Keywords: | Economics, Applied Economics, Beveridge curve, business cycles, job vacancies, nowcasting, recession indicator, recession probability, recession threshold, recessions, Sahm rule, unemployment, Applied economics, Econometrics, Economic theory |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt8ff2s3v6 |
| By: | Martin, Ian W. R. |
| Abstract: | I survey work that uses information in derivative and other asset prices to forecast movements in financial markets. |
| Keywords: | market forecasting; return predictability; derivatives; options |
| JEL: | G10 |
| Date: | 2025–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128212 |