|
on Investment |
| By: | Song, Danbee (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Cho, Jaehan (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | As a leading general-purpose technology, artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to accelerate digital trans¬formation across industries and exert widespread economic and social impacts. With AI now being rec¬ognized as a new driver of economic growth, governments worldwide are actively implementing policies to advance AI development and adoption. However, despite high expectations for and growing interest in AI, its adoption in South Korea remains limited, with the majority of businesses struggling to see tangible benefits. In order to leverage AI as a catalyst for growth in Korea, it is essential to establish a virtuous cycle between AI utilization and performance through both industry-specific and integrated policies. This paper describes the main characteristics and a set of policy priorities designed to facilitate AI adop¬tion in South Korea. They include: (1) strengthening demand-driven AI innovation capabilities to embed AI into industries; (2) expanding comprehensive financial support for AI-industry convergence; (3) improving AI workforce development systems and aligning human resources management with labor market needs; and (4) establishing a proactive risk management framework along with a “negative” regulatory approach to ensure businesses can freely leverage AI technology. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence; AI; industrial AI; manufacturing AI; digital transformation; AI adoption; technology adoption; productivity; AI policy; technology policy; South Korea; Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade; KIET |
| JEL: | L60 L86 L88 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2025_003 |
| By: | Yang Jiao (Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University); Ohyun Kwon (School of Economics, Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates firm-level linkage between international finance and trade. Specifically, we present evidence that Korean firms rely more on financing in foreign currency if there is a positive export shock. We address the crucial endogeneity problem by capitalizing on South Korea’s as well as its trading partners’ demand shocks. We further show that global supply chains also play an important role as higher imported intermediate input shares induce lower foreign currency debt shares. Our findings point to a firm-level hedging channel and are pertinent to exchange rate policies that aim to reduce a (developing) country’s vulnerability to exchange rate shocks. |
| Keywords: | Trade Shocks, Debt Finance, Currency Composition, Exchange Rate Risk, Global Supply Chains |
| JEL: | F14 F31 G32 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202518 |
| By: | Gustavo J. Bobonis; Anke Kessler; Xin Zhao; Anke S. Kessler |
| Abstract: | To what extent can anti-corruption measures serve to limit patronage and corrupt networks effectively and sustainably in clientelist societies with a prevailing norm of corruption? We develop a political agency model in which office holders are motivated to reduce rent seeking behavior through re-election incentives operating via elections and audits (formal institutions), but also through reputational or self-image concerns that are influenced by the prevailing norm on corruption in their peer group (informal institutions). We show that, while the formal institutions of audits and elections have the desired direct effect of reducing corruption, they also affect informal rules of conduct, which can have unintended effects. In particular, in clientelist societies with high levels of corruption, the social concerns work in opposition to formal incentives provided by anti-corruption efforts. Applying the theory to data from Puerto Rico’s anti-corruption municipal audits program, we find evidence consistent with the idea that anti-corruption measures are less effective due to social spillovers. |
| Keywords: | norms of corruption, informal institutions, audits, electoral discipline |
| JEL: | D73 D72 D91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11715 |
| By: | Jiang, Shuguang (Shandong University); Villeval, Marie Claire (CNRS); Zhang, Zhengping (Shandong University); Zheng, Jie (Shandong University) |
| Abstract: | We experimentally study how economic prospects and power shifts affect the risk of conflict through a dynamic power rivalry game. Players decide whether to maintain the status quo or challenge a rival under declining, constant, or growing economic prospects. We find that conflict rates are highest when economic prospects decline and lowest when they improve. A behavioral model incorporating psychological costs and reciprocity can explain these differences. A survey on U.S.-China relations supports the real-world relevance of these findings. Inspired by the Thucydides’s Trap, this study highlights how economic expectations shape conflict dynamics, offering key insights into geopolitical stability. |
| Keywords: | conflict, economic prospects, Thucydides’s Trap, power shift, experiment |
| JEL: | C83 C91 D74 D91 F51 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17823 |
| By: | Elsie Anguezomo Mezui (UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar [Sénégal]); Maria Di Mascolo (G-SCOP - Laboratoire des sciences pour la conception, l'optimisation et la production - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, G-SCOP_DOME2S - Design, Engineering and Operation Management of Systems and Services - G-SCOP - Laboratoire des sciences pour la conception, l'optimisation et la production - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Bassirou Diop (UGB - Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis Sénégal) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes hospital logistics practices in the management of physical flows in Senegal. Building on the work of Sampieri and Bongiovanni-Delarozière, it uses multiple component analysis (MCA) to classify hospitals according to their level of logistical development. The results show a low level of logistics development in public establishments, and the study contributes to enriching the understanding of the concept of logistics in hospital organizations, proposing a classification between developed and embryonic logistics. |
| Abstract: | C'est à la suite d'un fait divers1 , mettant en cause la logistique dans une clinique à Dakar que nous avons cherché à savoir comment la logistique est organisée dans les hôpitaux sénégalais, en identifiant leur stade de développement logistique. L'objectif de cet article est d'analyser les pratiques de la logistique hospitalière dans le pilotage des flux physiques au sein des établissements publics et privés de Santé sénégalais. Les travaux de (Sampieri et Bongiovanni-Delarozière 2000) ont été le fondement de cette étude. Cette étude exploratoire, nous a permis d'identifier le stade de développement de la logistique dans le secteur hospitalier sénégalais, grâce aux pratiques de la logistique hospitalière mobilisées au niveau de la littérature (Sampieri-Teissier 2002). L'analyse en composantes multiples (ACM), nous a permis de faire une classification afin de déterminer le stade de développement logistique de ces hôpitaux. Les principaux apports de cette recherche sont d'ordres théorique et pratique. D'un point de vue théorique, ce travail contribue à développer le concept de logistique dans les activités de service et plus précisément dans les organisations hospitalières. Il propose une démarche qui consiste à faire une classification des hôpitaux qui ont recours à une logistique développée (intégration interne de la logistique) et une logistique peu développée (logistique embryonnaire) pour le pilotage des flux physiques. L'observation des pratiques de gestion de la logistique hospitalière en comparaison avec la littérature dans sa vision moderne montre que celle-ci est très peu développée dans les établissements publics au Sénégal |
| Keywords: | Hospital logistics, physical flows, embryonic logistics, integrated logistics, logistics practices., Logistique hospitalière, flux physiques, logistique embryonnaire, logistique intégrée, pratiques logistiques. |
| Date: | 2024–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04993841 |
| By: | Fischer, Sabine |
| Abstract: | For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine", the principle that has guided Western policy since February 2022, no longer applies for Washington. Trump has fundamentally changed both the international environment in which war is taking place and the balance between the parties, paving the way for Russia to dictate the terms of peace. To prevent this from happening, swift and decisive European action is essential. The new German government must play a key role here - and it must do so from its very first day in office. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Russia, war of aggression, US President Donald Trump, Putin, stalemate, ceasefire, "Make America Great Again" (MAGA), Zelensky |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315540 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | After accelerating in 2023, GDP growth slowed to 3.2 percent in 2024, as another drought curtailed agricultural production. Domestic demand remained robust in the first three quarters of the year, with consumption boosted by lower inflation and fiscal support, and investment benefiting from the start of an infrastructure building cycle. Labor market conditions remained weak, due to significant job losses in the agricultural sector and low labor force participation. The effect of stronger demand on the current account deficit has been muted by continued positive trends in tourism, remittances, and manufacturing exports. The gradual fiscal consolidation continued as expected, and the 2025 Budget reiterated the authorities’ commitment to reduce the government debt ratio over the medium term. The authorities have continued with their structural reform agenda and have announced a new strategy to boost employment. |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/087 |
| By: | Carranza, Rafael; Nolan, Brian; Bavaro, Michele |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the intergenerational transmission of poverty and how it varies across thirty European countries using retrospective reports on childhood household circumstances from the 2019 EU-SILC ad hoc intergenerational module. Latent class analysis is employed as it allows all the available information to be incorporated to estimate current and childhood poverty with a minimum of structure imposed. For each generation, the two latent classes distinguished are seen to be distinct in terms of the prevalence of disadvantage. The intergenerational association between current and childhood poverty is assessed via transition matrices and summary mobility indices. This shows substantial variation in the extent and nature of intergenerational association across the countries covered, with a high degree of consistency between. Household income is not available for the parental generation but omitting it from the latent class model for current poverty made little difference to the country mobility rankings. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, mobility, intergenerational transmission, disadvantage |
| JEL: | D31 D63 O40 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-07 |
| By: | Goldstein, Daniel A. N. (University of Oslo); Schumock, Collin Thomas |
| Abstract: | Political executives often adhere to informal traditions established by their predecessors. Yet, without legal backing, elites have incentives to violate norms for political gain. Under what conditions do constraining executive norms persist and when are they abandoned? We address this question by using an infinite horizon formal model to analyze the maintenance of executive norms. We identify intra-party accountability and variation in patience among actors within the same party as significant for norm maintenance. We also detail how expectations about the expected behavior of out-of-power parties shape the willingness to violate norms while in office. The insights from the model enable us to classify a number of executive norms according to their fragility and to examine the trajectory of one norm in-depth: the two-term tradition of the American presidency. Our findings shed light on how informal institutions regulate executive behavior and advance our understanding of institutional stability and erosion. |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9dv4u_v2 |
| By: | Aurélien Ferry (CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]); Stéphane Jacquet |
| Abstract: | This article explores the support of entrepreneurs through a collaborative and co-active approach. It facilitates the guidance of an entrepreneur who is both locally and globally engaged (concept of glocalization) and operates in a multidimensional manner (concept of polychrony). It then refines the contemporary profile of the proximity entrepreneur, deeply rooted in their community and perceived as a driver of innovation and social responsibility. Furthermore, the article conceptualizes action sciences as an interdisciplinary field. It also examines entrepreneurial support practices, emphasizing flexibility, adaptability, emotional support, effective communication, and awareness of ongoing transitions that foster innovation and entrepreneurial project development. From these insights, new support competencies focused on agility and adaptability are derived. The identified and modeled practices have led to the creation of an innovative training program centered on action sciences. |
| Abstract: | Cet article aborde la question de l'accompagnement de l'entrepreneur dans une dimension collaborative et co-active. Il facilite l'accompagnement d'un entrepreneur présent, à la fois au niveau local et mondial (concept de glocalisation), et qui travaille de manière multidimensionnelle (concept de polychronie). Il affine ensuite le portrait contemporain de l'entrepreneur de proximité, enraciné dans sa communauté et perçu comme un moteur d'innovation et de responsabilité sociale. Ensuite, il 2 marché & organisations conceptualise les sciences de l'action, un domaine interdisciplinaire. Enfin, il explore les pratiques d'accompagnement d'entrepreneurs, mettant en avant la flexibilité, l'adaptabilité, le soutien émotionnel, la communication efficace, et la sensibilisation aux transitions actuelles, qui favorisent l'innovation et la progression des projets entrepreneuriaux ; pour en déduire de nouvelles compétences d'accompagnement axées sur l'agilité et l'adaptabilité. Ces pratiques identifiées et modélisées ont pu permettre de mettre en place une formation inédite, axée sur les sciences de l'action. |
| Keywords: | Accompagnement entrepreneurial, Intention entrepreneuriale, sciences de l'action, acteurs de l'accompagnement, émotion, individuel et collectif, logique inductive, Entrepreneuriat |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05009032 |
| By: | YOSHIHARA, Naoki |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the structure of the set of steady-state competitive equilibria defined in a quite generalized von Neumann economic model. First, it is shown that in any von Neumann production economy, there exists an admissible domain of non-negative interest rates such that for every interest rate within the domain, there exists an associated steady state equilibrium. Second, for almost all interest rates within the domain, the associated steady state equilibrium is indeterminate. Thus, in summary, for any von Neumann production economy, there is a dense subset of the admissible domain over which the set of steady state equilibria consists of a finite number of one-dimensional continuums of those equilibria. This property is observed regardless of whether the underlying economy is regular or not, which contrasts sharply with the finite and discrete properties of the other types of Walrasian equilibria in both static and intertemporal regular economies. These main results suggest, as a new, future research agenda, the need to study an appropriate equilibrium selection mechanism that should be applied prior to market competition. |
| Keywords: | generic indeterminacy of Walras-von Neumann steady state equilibria, von Neumann production economies, a finite number of one-dimensional continuums of Walras-von Neumann steady state equilibria |
| JEL: | B51 D33 D50 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:766 |
| By: | Doepke, Matthias (London School of Economics); Foerster, Hanno (Boston College); Hannusch, Anne (University of Bonn); Tertilt, Michèle (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | During the first half of the twentieth century, many US states enacted laws restricting women's labor market opportunities, including maximum hours restrictions, minimum wage laws, and night-shift bans. The era of so-called protective labor laws came to an end in the 1960s as a result of civil rights reforms. In this paper, we investigate the political economy behind the rise and fall of these laws. We argue that the main driver behind protective labor laws was men's desire to shield themselves from labor market competition. We spell out the mechanism through a politico-economic model in which singles and couples work in different sectors and vote on protective legislation. Restrictions are supported by single men and couples with male sole earners who compete with women for jobs. We show that the theory's predictions for when protective legislation will be introduced are well supported by US state-level evidence. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation, labor market competition, women's rights, political economy, protective legislation, family economics, gender |
| JEL: | D13 D72 D78 E24 J12 J16 N30 O10 O43 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17857 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Malaysia’s economic performance has significantly improved in 2024, supported by strong domestic and external demand. Disinflation is taking hold and external pressures have eased. The favorable economic conditions provide a window of opportunity to build macroeconomic policy buffers and accelerate structural reforms, especially as risks to growth are tilted to the downside amid an uncertain global outlook. Risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, including from global commodity price shocks and potential wage pressures. |
| Date: | 2025–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/057 |
| By: | Anastasis Kratsios; Xiaofei Shi; Qiang Sun; Zhanhao Zhang |
| Abstract: | We present a general computational framework for solving continuous-time financial market equilibria under minimal modeling assumptions while incorporating realistic financial frictions, such as trading costs, and supporting multiple interacting agents. Inspired by generative adversarial networks (GANs), our approach employs a novel generative deep reinforcement learning framework with a decoupling feedback system embedded in the adversarial training loop, which we term as the \emph{reinforcement link}. This architecture stabilizes the training dynamics by incorporating feedback from the discriminator. Our theoretically guided feedback mechanism enables the decoupling of the equilibrium system, overcoming challenges that hinder conventional numerical algorithms. Experimentally, our algorithm not only learns but also provides testable predictions on how asset returns and volatilities emerge from the endogenous trading behavior of market participants, where traditional analytical methods fall short. The design of our model is further supported by an approximation guarantee. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.04300 |
| By: | Oussama Zouabi (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon, UTLN - Université de Toulon); Michel Dimou (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon, UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to examine the relationship between climate shocks and agri-food and overall inflation in Tunisia for the period 1985-2000. Climate shocks represent extreme weather phenomena such as droughts, heat waves, and floods To address this question, the paper uses an extensive Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model that incorporates a Pesaran cointegration test, enabling the exploration of potential asymmetric effects stemming from positive and negative climate shocks on both general and agri-food inflation in the short and the long run. The key findings of the paper indicate that positive temperature shocks exert a significant inflationary impact on all agricultural products, the food industry, and, more broadly, the entire Tunisian economy, both in the short and long term. Conversely, a sudden shortage in rainfall does not significantly affect either agricultural or food prices, nor does it influence the general price index. This result is rather unexpected since long-term rainfall trends significantly affect agricultural production, emphasizing the importance of appropriate agricultural policies such as irrigation. |
| Keywords: | Tunisia, Climate shocks, NARDL model, Climate inflation, Climate change Agriculture climate inflation NARDL Tunisia Q50 Q54 Q10 P24 C15, Climate change, Agriculture, climate inflation, NARDL, Tunisia Q50, Q54, Q10, P24, C15 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04985855 |
| By: | António Afonso; Catarina Farinha Miranda |
| Abstract: | Through fiscal reaction functions, we investigate fiscal sustainability for five European country-group panels and check for a change in fiscal behaviour after countries adopted the euro as their currency. Using annual data for the period between 1990 and 2021, we identify evidence of average compliance with sustainability restrictions among Eurozone nations. However, for the Eurozone countries there is a smaller response, 0.046 percentage points (pp), to an increase in the debt ratio than in the case of the European economies without euro, where the response is around 0.1036 pp. Conversely, the euro membership has decreased the average responsiveness of primary balances to debt shocks as compared to the period before the implementation of the euro. |
| Keywords: | fiscal sustainability, debt, primary budget balance, fiscal reaction functions, euro area |
| JEL: | E62 H62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11749 |
| By: | Daniel Gorin; Sarah Gosky; Michael Suher |
| Abstract: | Guidance is used by bank regulators to communicate supervisory expectations to both examiners and banks. In March 2020, in response to pandemic shut-downs, financial regulators issued a joint statement encouraging small-dollar lending to meet temporary cash-flow imbalances, unexpected expenses, or income short-falls. |
| Date: | 2023–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2023-07-28-3 |
| By: | Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alireza Sabouniha; Sergey Utkin; Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Stella Sophie Zilian (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Chart of the month Export data suggest the transition to electric vehicles is stalling in Europe by Zuzana Zavarská Russia-Ukraine Of peace, victory and the art of the impossible by Sergey Utkin Ukraine and Russia remain stuck in a zero-sum logic on all major issues, with diametrically opposed goals when it comes to Ukraine’s NATO membership, its military infrastructure and the outcome of the war. Nevertheless, were Trump to win the election, the new US president would probably force Ukraine to negotiate. The West’s lukewarm reception of Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’, presented in October 2024, may assist the Ukrainian leadership in shifting the blame for any potentially painful concessions onto its partners, who are unable to provide the support requested. What drives the demand for typical and atypical employment in Europe? by Sandra M. Leitner and Alireza Sabouniha Atypical, non-standard forms of employment have become more widespread, particularly in many advanced economies. This is of concern because of the negative impact on ‘atypical’ workers. We find that off-shoring and communication technology (CT) have been important drivers in the expansion of atypical employment in Europe – in the case of off-shoring, this has mainly been the case in service industries. The strictness of employment protection legislation (EPL) has played an important moderating role, damping down some of the negative effects, particularly in relation to off-shoring. The digital transition at work in the EU Socio-demographic challenges by Sebastian Leitner and Stella Zilian In this article we document patterns of age segregation in digital job tasks across the EU. We find clear generational differences, as younger workers are more likely to work in positions that require more frequent and more complex use of digital technology, whereas older workers are more likely to work in positions that require a lower level of digital skills or no digital skills at all. We further find evidence of a gender gap, with women exhibiting a lower probability than men of performing digital tasks. The gender gap is most pronounced among digital natives, and it decreases with age. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| Keywords: | automotive exports, electric vehicles, Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’, NATO membership, ceasefire negotiations, atypical employment, employment protection, off-shoring, technological change, digital transition at work, age segregation, gender gap |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2024-10 |
| By: | Millimet, Daniel L. (Southern Methodist University); Whitacre, Travis (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Geographic disparities in mortality rates in the US are pronounced and growing. The Black-White mortality gap is volatile but persistent, while the Rich-Poor mortality gap is increasing dramatically. While the causes of these inequalities are not understood, recent attention has focused on the role of place-specific factors. Here, we explore the importance of politics as a place-specific factor contributing to spatial inequality in mortality. Specifically, we test for the existence of partisan mortality cycles using panel data on counties from 1968-2016 and information on the political ideology of state and federal political officials. We confirm the existence of partisan mortality cycles, finding lower mortality in counties governed by more liberal political regimes. Several sources of heterogeneity are also uncovered. While additional research is needed, the analysis here suggests that analyses of spatial, racial, and income differences in mortality ought to start with the political system. |
| Keywords: | geographic disparities, ideology, mortality, political cycles |
| JEL: | I10 I18 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17824 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The economy is growing, inflation is receding, donor support is increasing, public debt is declining, and credit rating agencies have upgraded Suriname’s sovereign debt rating. The oil production from block 58 is set to begin in 2028 and the authorities are putting in place the institutions needed to transparently manage this resource windfall. Upon completion of this ninth review—the first ever IMF-supported program that Suriname will have completed—SRD 46.8 million (about USD 61.2 million) would be made available. |
| Date: | 2025–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/097 |
| By: | Aya Aboulhosn (American University); Cevat Aksoy (EBRD); Berkay Ozcan (LSE) |
| Abstract: | Debates about immigration’s role in addressing population aging typically concentrate on immigrant fertility rates. Moreover, standard projections account for migration’s impact on overall population growth while largely overlooking how immigration might affect native fertility. In contrast, we show that forced immigration influences native fertility as well. We investigate this relationship by examining the influx of refugees into Türkiye following the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Using two complementary instrumental variable strategies, we find robust evidence that native fertility increases in response to forced migration. This result holds across three distinct datasets and is further supported by a corresponding rise in subjective fertility measures, such as the ideal number of children. Additionally, we explore four potential mechanisms and document significant heterogeneity in fertility responses among different native subgroups. Our findings suggest that factors related to the labor market and norm transmission may help explain the observed increase in native fertility. |
| Keywords: | forced migration; fertility; refugees; social interactions |
| JEL: | J13 R23 F22 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2505 |
| By: | François Fontaine (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor); Pierre Rousseaux (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Maxime Tô (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | La réforme du salaire journalier de référence est entrée en vigueur le 1er octobre 2021 dans le cadre d'une refonte globale de l'Assurance chômage en France. Pour les demandeurs d'emploi ayant alterné périodes travaillées et de non-travaillées avant d'accéder à une indemnisation, cette réforme allonge la durée maximale des allocations chômage tout en en réduisant le montant. Cette étude évalue l'impact de cette réforme sur les trajectoires professionnelles, en tenant compte de l'exposition hétérogène des individus à la réforme. Celle-ci dépend directement du temps passé sans emploi entre le premier et le dernier jour travaillé au cours des deux dernières années. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-05042640 |
| By: | Andre Diegmann (Halle Institute for Economic Research); Laura Pohlan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB)); Andrea Weber (Central European University) |
| Abstract: | We study how connections to German federal parliamentarians affect firm dynamics by constructing a novel dataset linking politicians and election candidates to the universe of firms. To identify the causal effect of access to political power, we exploit (i) new appointments to the company leadership team and (ii) discontinuities around the marginal seat of party election lists. Our results reveal that connections lead to reductions in firm exits, gradual increases in employment growth without improvements in productivity. Adding information on credit ratings, subsidies and procurement contracts allows us to distinguish between mechanisms driving the effects over the politician’s career. |
| Keywords: | Politicians, Firm Performance, Identification, Political Connections |
| JEL: | O43 L25 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2506 |
| By: | Kamran Iqbal; Jie Shen (Shenzhen University [Shenzhen]); Xin Deng (IB-CAS - Institute of Botany [Beijing] - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]) |
| Abstract: | Abstract Drawing upon social identification theory and stakeholder theory, the current study examines the contextual effect of job insecurity on the indirect relationship between general corporate social responsibility facilitation‐human resource management (HRM) and employee job engagement through the mediation of organizational pride. Our analysis of a two‐wave dataset with a sample of 255 full‐time employees in the banking sector reveals that job insecurity negatively moderates the impact of general CSR‐facilitation HRM on organizational pride, which in turn is positively related to employee job engagement. This study advances the socially responsible HRM literature by providing insights into the underlying mechanisms and the contextual conditions under which general CSR‐facilitation HRM influences employee workplace outcomes in the presence of conflicting interests among stakeholders. |
| Abstract: | Drawing upon social identification theory and stakeholder theory, the current study examines the contextual effect of job insecurity on the indirect relationship between general corporate social responsibility facilitation-human resource management (HRM) and employee job engagement through the mediation of organizational pride. Our analysis of a two-wave dataset with a sample of 255 full-time employees in the banking sector reveals that job insecurity negatively moderates the impact of general CSR-facilitation HRM on organizational pride, which in turn is positively related to employee job engagement. This study advances the socially responsible HRM literature by providing insights into the underlying mechanisms and the contextual conditions under which general CSR-facilitation HRM influences employee workplace outcomes in the presence of conflicting interests among stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | job engagement, job insecurity, organizational pride, socially responsible human resource management |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04875774 |
| By: | Lester Lusher; Tim Ruberg |
| Abstract: | We utilize region-day variation in actual vs. forecasted weather conditions (i.e. forecasting errors) to comprehensively investigate the effects of the first heat-health warning system in Japan. We find that heat alerts led to a 17% increase in heat stroke counts. An analysis of mechanisms suggests this is primarily driven by increased reporting, as opposed to potential “adverse” behavioral responses or substitution in health diagnoses. Four times as many heat strokes are detected in low-income neighborhoods compared to high-income neighborhoods. We further document evidence of avoidance behaviors (e.g. electricity usage), but find no evidence of improved (or worsened) mortality outcomes. |
| Keywords: | heat stroke, climate change, warning effectiveness, avoidance behavior |
| JEL: | D90 I12 I18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11772 |
| By: | Richard Winter; Jan Zental |
| Abstract: | Wealth transfer taxes can be important instruments to counter increasing wealth inequality. Yet, inter-generational business transfers, whose distribution is particularly concentrated at the top, are inherently difficult to tax. Many countries treat this asset class preferentially to avoid overburdening family firms, and sophisticated tax avoidance strategies by business owners exploit this preferential treatment to erode the tax base. We analyse how business transfers react to anticipated changes in such preferential tax treatment using administrative data at the individual-transfer level from the universe of German gift tax assessments. We find strong and rapid timing responses of business transfers to expected tax changes. We show that the response is stronger for higher-valued transfers and find heterogeneity in transfer characteristics consistent with a tax avoidance motive. We further estimate that the amount of foregone gift tax revenue due to timing responses is up to 2.8 times the size of actual annual inheritance and gift tax revenue. |
| Keywords: | wealth transfer tax avoidance, business owners, tax uncertainty |
| JEL: | H00 H23 H25 H26 K34 D80 D81 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11687 |
| By: | Travis Cable; Amir Mani; Wei Qi; Georgios Sotiropoulos; Yiyuan Xiong |
| Abstract: | United States (US) IG bonds typically trade at modest spreads over US Treasuries, reflecting the credit risk tied to a corporation's default potential. During market crises, IG spreads often widen and liquidity tends to decrease, likely due to increased credit risk (evidenced by higher IG Credit Default Index spreads) and the necessity for asset holders like mutual funds to liquidate assets, including IG credits, to manage margin calls, bolster cash reserves, or meet redemptions. These credit and liquidity premia occur during market drawdowns and tend to move non-linearly with the market. The research herein refers to this non-linearity (during periods of drawdown) as downside convexity, and shows that this market behavior can effectively be captured through a short position established in IG Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The following document details the construction of three signals: Momentum, Liquidity, and Credit, that can be used in combination to signal entries and exits into short IG positions to hedge a typical active bond portfolio (such as PIMIX). A dynamic hedge initiates the short when signals jointly correlate and point to significant future hedged return. The dynamic hedge removes when the short position's predicted hedged return begins to mean revert. This systematic hedge largely avoids IG Credit drawdowns, lowers absolute and downside risk, increases annualised returns and achieves higher Sortino ratios compared to the benchmark funds. The method is best suited to high carry, high active risk funds like PIMIX, though it also generalises to more conservative funds similar to DODIX. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.06289 |
| By: | Yiping Meng; Sergio Cavalaro; Mohamed Osmani |
| Abstract: | The longevity and viability of construction components in a circular economy demand a robust, data-informed framework for reuse decision-making. This paper introduces a multi-level grading and classification system that combines Bayesian probabilistic modeling with scenario-based performance thresholds to assess the reusability of end-of-life modular components. By grading components across a five-tier scale, the system supports strategic decisions for reuse, up-use, or down-use, ensuring alignment with engineering standards and sustainability objectives. The model's development is grounded in empirical data from precast concrete wall panels, and its explainability is enhanced through decision tree logic and Sankey visualizations that trace the influence of contextual scenarios on classification outcomes. MGCS addresses the environmental, economic, and operational challenges of EoL management--reducing material waste, optimizing value recovery, and improving workflow efficiency. Through dynamic feature weighting and transparent reasoning, the system offers a practical yet rigorous pathway to embed circular thinking into construction industry practices. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.06782 |
| By: | Adar, Sinem; Asseburg, Muriel; Azizi, Hamidreza; Klein, Margarete; Steinberg, Guido |
| Abstract: | On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The transitional government under Ahmad al-Sharaa now faces enormous economic, social and political challenges. It has yet to establish control over the country as a whole; and jihadist groups such as the so-called Islamic State (IS) continue to pose a threat, as do (potential) insurgents linked to the former regime, among other groups. At the same time, the actions of various regional and international actors risk destabilising Syria or sabotaging the transition already under way. Regardless of whether that risk materialises, it is these external forces that are setting the bounds of the new rulers' room for manoeuvre. For its part, the interim government has started to lay off most members of the former regime's Syrian Arab Army and disband militias. It has also struck a deal with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) about their integration into the new Syrian army and embarked on a political transition. Germany and its EU partners should support an inclusive transition process and help facilitate the comprehensive reconstruction of the country, not least by easing sanctions. Indeed, it is essential that geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria be de-escalated rather than exacerbated. |
| Keywords: | Syria, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmad al-Sharaa, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Assad, Russia, Israel, United States, Iran |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315537 |
| By: | Emma Kroell; Sebastian Jaimungal; Silvana M. Pesenti |
| Abstract: | We consider the problem of an agent who faces losses over a finite time horizon and may choose to share some of these losses with a counterparty. The agent is uncertain about the true loss distribution and has multiple models for the losses. Their goal is to optimize a mean-variance type criterion with model ambiguity through risk sharing. We construct such a criterion by adapting the monotone mean-variance preferences of Maccheroni et al. (2009) to the multiple models setting and exploit a dual representation to mitigate time-consistency issues. Assuming a Cram\'er-Lundberg loss model, we fully characterize the optimal risk sharing contract and the agent's wealth process under the optimal strategy. Furthermore, we prove that the strategy we obtain is admissible and prove that the value function satisfies the appropriate verification conditions. Finally, we apply the optimal strategy to an insurance setting using data from a Spanish automobile insurance portfolio, where we obtain differing models using cross-validation and provide numerical illustrations of the results. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.02987 |
| By: | Jorge Stürmer (UFSC - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina = Federal University of Santa Catarina [Florianópolis]); Maurício Serva (UFSC - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina = Federal University of Santa Catarina [Florianópolis]) |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT Objective: the main objectives of this work are to contribute to reducing the gap in studies on the management of protected areas in the field of administration, and to understand how environmental governance is performed in action. Theoretical approach: the theoretical basis was composed of approaches to environmental governance, pragmatist-inspired sociologies, and pragmatist analysis of organizations. Methods: the research strategy adopted the general premises of ethnography in organizational studies, with daily in situ monitoring of the situations experienced by the actors in the organizations and their interactions with the other actors in their environment. In-depth interviews, bibliographical research, and document analysis were also carried out. Results: the results of the research primarily indicate that the environmental governance that emerged from the action in the two protected areas is a process characterized by conflicts, controversies, and contradictions. Conclusion: environmental governance can be characterized as processes of creating shared governance and management mechanisms, establishing institutional arrangements and partnerships, building territorial assets, and monitoring actions. What stands out in all these processes is the cross-cutting nature of managing conflicts, controversies, and confronting contradictions. |
| Abstract: | Objetivos: os objetivos principais deste trabalho são contribuir para reduzir a lacuna de estudos sobre a gestão de Unidades de Conservação (UCs) na área da administração e compreender como é performada a governança ambiental na ação. Marco teórico: a base teórica foi composta pelas abordagens da governança ambiental, das sociologias de inspiração pragmatista e da análise pragmatista de organizações. Métodos: a estratégia de pesquisa adotou as premissas gerais da etnografia em estudos organizacionais, com o acompanhamento cotidiano in situ das situações vivenciadas pelos atores das organizações e de suas interações com os demais atores de seu ambiente. Também foram realizadas entrevistas em profundidade, pesquisas bibliográficas e análise de documentos. Resultados: os resultados da pesquisa indicam prioritariamente que a governança ambiental que emergiu da ação nas duas UCs é um processo caracterizado por conflitos, controvérsias e contradições. Conclusão: a governança ambiental pode ser caracterizada como processos de criação de dispositivos de governança e gestão compartilhada, de estabelecimento de arranjos institucionais e parcerias, de construção de ativos territoriais, e de ações de fiscalização. Destaca-se em todos esses processos a transversalidade da gestão de conflitos, de controvérsias, e enfrentamento de contradições. |
| Keywords: | governança ambiental unidades de conservação estudos organizacionais pragmatismo environmental governance protected areas organization studies pragmatism, governança ambiental, unidades de conservação, estudos organizacionais, pragmatismo environmental governance, protected areas, organization studies, pragmatism |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05007763 |
| By: | Li, Ruoxuan |
| Abstract: | This review investigates Singapore’s emergence as a carbon credit trading hub and its evolving role in shaping Southeast Asia’s climate finance architecture. Drawing on a narrative-integrative methodology, the paper synthesizes grey literature, government policy, institutional reports, and verified academic sources to critically assess how Singapore constructs and governs its carbon market platform. The analysis is structured around three interrelated questions: (1) how Singapore builds its institutional and financial infrastructure to mediate carbon flows; (2) how public and private actors coordinate to establish authority and credibility within a hybrid governance model; and (3) how the platform-based architecture produces both opportunities and asymmetries across the ASEAN region. Conceptually, the paper engages with theories of platform capitalism, soft market regulation, and green financial intermediation to interpret Singapore’s infrastructural strategy. The findings suggest that Singapore’s market-oriented approach—anchored by mechanisms such as Climate Impact X, Article 6 bilateral agreements, and green financial instruments—functions not only as a facilitator of decarbonization but also as a gatekeeper of regional participation. While this model enables cross-border interoperability and enhances access to global climate finance, it also introduces risks of institutional dependency and normative concentration. The paper concludes by identifying gaps in current scholarship and proposing a future research agenda focused on comparative carbon governance, platform power, and the political economy of Article 6 implementation in Asia. |
| Date: | 2025–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2j5nd_v1 |
| By: | Korte, Kristina; Landmesser, Emma |
| Abstract: | As climate change progresses, the number of people who are being forced to leave their homes and cross borders due to environmental change is increasing. At the same time, they lack safe, orderly and regular migration pathways. Regional free movement can expand the leeway for those who are particularly affected by climate change. The African regional organisations ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) and IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) have both concluded agreements that could guarantee such free movement of persons. Their examples show the potential, but also the hurdles in implementing such regulations. In order to take advantage of these agreements in terms of climate mobility, German and European development and migration policy should do more to implement regional free movement. Furthermore, it is important to support the anchoring of climate aspects in the agreements. Cooperation between the European Union (EU) and individual African states should be questioned if it threatens to hinder the free movement of people in Africa through migration management and border security. |
| Keywords: | environmental change, climate change, loss and damagea, climate mobility, migration, free movement of persons, Africa, Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, Intergovernmental Authority on Development, IGAD, Global Compact on Migration, Nansen Initiative, Kampala Declaration, EU's external migration policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315533 |
| By: | Jean Chateau; Hugo Rojas-Romagosa; Sneha D Thube; Dominique van der Mensbrugghe |
| Abstract: | IMF-ENV is a global dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by the IMF's Research Department. The model features a database of 160 countries and regions, along with 76 sectors, and can be calibrated to a wide range of country-sector combinations. The model's general equilibrium structure, combined with its high level of detail, enables it to assess both direct and indirect domestic structural changes and cross-border spillover effects of policies. This makes it suitable for examining the medium- and long-term macroeconomic effects as well as structural shifts arising from national and/or global climate mitigation, energy, fiscal and trade policies. The model reports impact on macroeconomic variables, sectoral outcomes, employment and bilateral trade flows, along with detailed information for energy demand and supply, electricity generation and GHG emissions. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium models; energy transition; energy security; energy policies; climate policies; structural change; trade policies |
| Date: | 2025–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/077 |
| By: | Abajian, Alexander; Carleton, Tamma; Meng, Kyle; Deschênes, Olivier |
| Abstract: | Many behavioral responses to climate change are carbon-intensive, raising concerns that adaptation may cause additional warming. The sign and magnitude of this feedback depend on how increased emissions from cooling balance against reduced emissions from heating across space and time. We present an empirical approach that forecasts the effect of future adaptive energy use on global average temperature over the 21st century. We estimate that energy-based adaptation will lower global mean surface temperature in 2099 by 0.07 to 0.12 °C relative to baseline projections under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. This cooling avoids 0.6 to 1.8 trillion U.S. Dollars ($2019) in damages, depending on the baseline emissions scenario. Energy-based adaptation lowers business-as-usual emissions for 85% of countries, reducing the mitigation required to meet their unilateral Nationally Determined Contributions by 20% on average. These findings indicate that while business-as-usual adaptive energy use is unlikely to accelerate warming, it raises important implications for countries existing mitigation commitments. |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt9642j569 |
| By: | Mekkewi, Ahmed |
| Abstract: | Globally, water is necessary for life, the environment, and development. Yet, most African countries still experience water challenges due to infrastructure deficits, financial constraints, regulatory and policy issues, environmental and climatic factors, and technological limitations. This problem will continue to increase drastically due to economic activities in the industrial and agricultural sectors unless appropriate policies are implemented. Public-private partnerships (PPP), investment and financing models, technological innovation and adoption, capacity building and skills development, and community engagement and stakeholder collaboration are the strategies and opportunities suitable for business development in the African water sector. The government, international organizations, and private sectors have a vital role in facilitating growth and development in the water sector. The government should retain its operations by creating a suitable environment and regulations with empowerment and decentralization, providing a radical shift from top-down to centralized implementation and administration. The international organization provides the financial resources, technical guidance, and capacity building to ensure sustainable management practices in utilizing water resources and the development of infrastructure. At the same time, the private sector has a role in rendering management at the slightest level and establishing institutional arrangements allowing full participation of stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | African countries, water sector, public-private partnerships, investment, financing models, technological, innovation, adoption, government, policies, infrastructure, business development |
| JEL: | F20 F21 F23 F35 O19 |
| Date: | 2023–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124563 |
| By: | Agneta Forslund (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Anaïs Tibi (DEPE - Direction de l'Expertise scientifique collective, de la Prospective et des Etudes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Bertrand Schmitt (CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Elodie Marajo-Petitzon (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Philippe Debaeke (AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - INP - PURPAN - Ecole d'Ingénieurs de Purpan - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Louis Durand (P3F - Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Philippe Faverdin (PEGASE - Physiologie, Environnement et Génétique pour l'Animal et les Systèmes d'Elevage [Rennes] - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Hervé Guyomard (SDAR Bretagne Normandie - Services déconcentrés d'appui à la recherche Bretagne-Normandie - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Sera-t-il possible de fournir une alimentation plus saine à la population mondiale en 2050 sans étendre les terres agricoles ? Pour répondre à cette question, nous avons estimé grâce au modèle de bilan GlobAgri-AE2050, les besoins en terres cultivées et en pâtures en 2050 pour 21 régions du monde, induits par l'adoption de régimes plus sains, sur la base de projections des variables exogènes d'offre et de demande de produits agricoles, en prenant en compte l'impact du changement climatique sur les rendements des cultures, les intensités de pâturage et les surfaces maximales cultivables, et en tenant compte des échanges inter-régionaux. Les résultats des simulations pour deux projections des rendements (croissance « modérée » et « forte ») montrent que plusieurs régions (Afrique du Nord, Proche et Moyen Orient, Inde et reste de l'Asie) seraient contraintes par leurs disponibilités en terres cultivables, et que les besoins additionnels en pâtures en Afrique subsaharienne deviendraient extrêmes. |
| Keywords: | Surfaces cultivables, Alimentation, Changement climatique |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04998084 |
| By: | Simon Hirsch |
| Abstract: | Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is a key task for market participants in short-term electricity markets. The increasing availability of high-frequency data and the need for real-time decision-making in energy markets require online estimation methods for efficient model updating. We present an online, multivariate, regularized distributional regression model, allowing for the modeling of all distribution parameters conditional on explanatory variables. Our approach is based on the combination of the multivariate distributional regression and an efficient online learning algorithm based on online coordinate descent for LASSO-type regularization. Additionally, we propose to regularize the estimation along a path of increasingly complex dependence structures of the multivariate distribution, allowing for parsimonious estimation and early stopping. We validate our approach through one of the first forecasting studies focusing on multivariate probabilistic forecasting in the German day-ahead electricity market while using only online estimation methods. We compare our approach to online LASSO-ARX-models with adaptive marginal distribution and to online univariate distributional models combined with an adaptive Copula. We show that the multivariate distributional regression, which allows modeling all distribution parameters - including the mean and the dependence structure - conditional on explanatory variables such as renewable in-feed or past prices provide superior forecasting performance compared to modeling of the marginals only and keeping a static/unconditional dependence structure. Additionally, online estimation yields a speed-up by a factor of 80 to over 400 times compared to batch fitting. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.02518 |
| By: | Jun Honda |
| Abstract: | Financial misconduct in advisory services persists despite ongoing regulatory oversight, raising important questions about its endurance and the nature of retail investor responses. Using detailed FINRA BrokerCheck data - capturing the time from the initiation of misconduct to its detection - we document pronounced heterogeneity in detection lags. Although detection is generally delayed, our analysis reveals that investor responses are markedly swifter during market downturns, suggesting that substantial portfolio losses prompt investors to quickly assign blame to their advisors. These findings contribute to our understanding of how adverse economic environments can trigger more immediate investor reactions, even when overall detection remains sluggish. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.22977 |
| By: | Müller, Melanie; Strack, Lea; Vulović, Marina |
| Abstract: | In July 2024, the European Union (EU) and the Serbian government signed a strategic raw materials partnership. For the EU, this cooperation represents an important step towards diversifying its supply chains and strengthening economic partnerships in its neighbourhood. Serbian President Aleksandar Vuéci´c has a geopolitical interest in this cooperation, which he also wants to use to further consolidate his already extensive power domestically. The signing of the partnership agreement has triggered massive protests in Serbia. Critics fear that the implementation of the raw materials partnership could further undermine already fragile rule-of-law structures, as well as environmental and social standards. The case of Serbia illustrates that the EU can only exert limited influence on the country's authoritarian government in a geopolitically tense context. However, it must strategically use its available leverage to mitigate the existing risks. |
| Keywords: | Serbia, Aleksandar Vuéci´c, rule of law, sustainability, Europe's raw materials cooperation, Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), ESG (environmental, social, governance), Jadar Project, lithium, boron, German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA), Rio Sava |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315536 |
| By: | Könneke, Jule |
| Abstract: | The new EU Commission is promising to improve the bloc's geoeconomic resilience, make progress on decarbonisation and increase competitiveness. Achieving these aims will mean working with emerging economies like Brazil - where the EU's influence is waning as China's expands. The EU lacks a long-term strategy and is poorly positioned to engage with a newly assertive Brazil in an increasingly multipolar world. This is increasingly problematic for the EU's strategic agenda. |
| Keywords: | EU Commission, European Green Deal (EGD), EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR), EU's strategic agenda, greenhouse gases, geoeconomic resilience, decarbonisation, competitiveness, green technology, Donald Trump, Clean Industrial Deal, Net Zero Industry Act, Critical Raw Materials Act, Mercosur, Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), BRICS, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315524 |