|
on Investment |
| By: | Marlies Piek; Dieter von Fintel |
| Abstract: | The effects of minimum wages on workers and firms depend on enforcement and compliance. While most research examines local determinants, this paper explores whether international market enforcement influences minimum wage impacts. In South Africa farmers exporting to the EU must comply with private standards mandating minimum wage adherence. Using difference-in-differences and administrative tax data, we analyse how a large agricultural minimum wage increase affected export stance, employment, and wages under varying private standards. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, Trade, Employment, Wages, Administrative data, Tax data, South Africa |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-10 |
| By: | Rémi Bazillier (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CNRS-IRD); María Moraga-Fernández (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CNRS-IRD, Ruhr University Bochum - Institute of Development Research and Development Policy) |
| Abstract: | Despite the widespread use of minimum wage policies to combat poverty in Africa, research on their effects remains limited. This paper addresses this gap by examining the economic impact of minimum wage shocks on firms across the African continent using firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. We document that all but four African countries have a minimum wage system. Between 2002 and 2019, we identify 13 shocks-defined as a 30% real increase-in 11 countries. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we estimate the causal effects of these shocks on labor costs, employment, sales, and productivity. To address potential endogeneity, we instrument minimum wage changes using social protest intensity. We find that minimum wage shocks significantly increase labor costs per worker, suggesting at least a partial enforcement of regulations. However, we detect no robust impact on employment. Instead, firms partly offset higher labor costs through increased sales or productivity. We identify three complementary mechanisms: (1) a cleansing effect, where less productive firms exit; (2) capital investment as an adjustment channel; and (3) a local demand boost, with stronger sales effects in large markets |
| Keywords: | Minimum Wages; Africa; employment; firms; labor regulations |
| JEL: | J38 E24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25006 |
| By: | Şerife, Erol; Schulten, Thorsten |
| Abstract: | Die Fleischindustrie stand lange wegen prekärer Arbeitsbedingungen in der Kritik. Mit dem Arbeitsschutzkontrollgesetz von 2021 wurden Werkverträge und Leiharbeit verboten, um Beschäftigte besser zu schützen. Doch wie hat sich die Situation seitdem entwickelt? Unsere Untersuchung analysiert die Auswirkungen des Gesetzes auf Arbeits-, Beschäftigungs- und Partizipationsbedingungen sowie -beziehungen - von Verbesserungen bis zu neuen Herausforderungen. Hat die Reform ihr Ziel erreicht oder sind neue Probleme entstanden? Die Untersuchung gibt Einblicke in eine Branche im Wandel und zieht eine Zwischenbilanz der Veränderungen nach dem Arbeitsschutzkontrollgesetz. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsistu:315213 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor-Skills Development and Labor Force Training Governance-Youth and Governance Social Protections and Labor-Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40488 |
| By: | Schiele, Maximilian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The research report analyzes the effects of participation in the measure "Integration of the Long-Term Unemployed" (EvL) (Article 16e Social Code II) on social participation. The EvL policy is aimed at employable welfare recipients who have been unemployed for at least two years. The aim of the measure is to enable long-term unemployed people to sustainably improve their social participation by integrating them into employment subject to social insurance contributions. Employers who take on long-term unemployed SGB II recipients are reimbursed 75 percent of the wage costs in the first year and 50 percent in the second year. The subsidized employment relationships must be based on a collective labour agreement or minimum wage. Throughout their employment, participants are supposed to receive support from a job coach who assists in stabilizing both their professional and personal circumstances. There are no obligations on the part of the employer regarding subsequent employment after the end of the state support measure. The analysis is based on data from the first three waves of the "Quality of Life and Participation" panel study (2020–2023). The social participation of the EvL participants was measured using four dimensions: life satisfaction, satisfaction with health, satisfaction with standard of living, and general sense of social belonging. Matching methods were used to determine the influence of participation in the EvL measure on social participation. The participants in the measure were compared with a comparable control group—so-called statistical twins—who did not take part in the measure. The effect of the measure was then estimated based on the differences in the four dimensions of social participation between the participants and the control group. On average, the participants are 47 years old, and around 61 percent of them are men. A large proportion of the people receiving support live alone: around 65 percent of participants are single without a partner or children in the household. In addition, almost 40 percent of participants have serious pre-existing health conditions. On average, participants had worked for less than half of the last five years before starting the support, which highlights their difficult starting position in the labour market. In terms of estimating the effect of participation in the measure, there is a positive effect on all four dimensions of social participation. These effects are not only significant during the span of the measure but can also be detected one year after the end of the measure. Around 63 percent of the positive effects that were identified at the beginning of the support measure remain after the regular end date of the measure. All subgroups examined, regardless of age, gender, health status, or region, benefited from participation in the measure. Moreover, it was found that older individuals experienced a significantly greater benefit in terms of social participation approximately one year after the end of the regular funding period. A sustainable improvement in social participation is closely linked to successful integration into the labour market. The analyses in this research report show a strong correlation between the employment effects and the effects on social participation: the more program participants remain in employment after the end of the support, the more stable the positive effects on their social participation remain. This correlation between employment and social participation effects is particularly pronounced among male program participants. These results underline that long-term integration into the labour market is crucial in order to secure the positive effects of the measure on social participation in the long term. In summary, the study shows that the EvL instrument not only improves social participation in the short term but also has positive effects in the medium and long term. These sustainable positive effects are largely due to the successful and lasting integration of participants into the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; IAB-Datensatz Lebensqualität und Teilhabe ; IAB-Datensatz Lebensqualität und Teilhabe ; Auswirkungen ; berufliche Reintegration ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Coaching ; Gesundheitszustand ; Langzeitarbeitslose ; Lebenslauf ; Lebenssituation ; Lebensstandard ; Lohnkostenzuschuss ; soziale Partizipation ; soziale Stabilisierung ; arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahme ; Zufriedenheit ; 2020-2023 |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202507 |
| By: | Syed M. Hussain, Zara Liaqat |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:jc0155 |
| By: | Brian Stacy; Maryam Akmal; Halsey Rogers; Sergio Venegas Marin; Hersheena Rajaram; Viyaleta Farysheuskaya |
| Abstract: | Using unique nationally representative school and system survey data from 13 education systems in low and middle-income countries collected through the World Bank’s Global Education Policy Dashboard (GEPD), we examine how the pedagogical practices, including practices to foster student engagement and subject content knowledge of primary-school teachers, correlate with their students’ learning outcomes. The authors find that student performance on literacy (and, to a lesser extent, math) assessments are correlated with receiving instruction from teachers with better-measured pedagogical skills. While the better-pedagogy effect is modest for the entire sample, it is statistically robust and quite substantial for the upper-middle-income countries. Based on a sub-sample of those education systems, we also find that using learning strategies that support greater student engagement appears to be highly predictive of student learning outcomes in literacy. Better pedagogical practices correlate with teachers’ exposure to more practical, school-based pedagogical support, for example through induction or mentoring and feedback on lesson plans, and with better teacher evaluation at the school level. The findings confirm the important role of interventions providing direct pedagogical support and feedback to teachers through training, instructional leadership, and evaluation, and they highlight the potential for interventions to foster student engagement and improve learning outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdgens:196418 |
| By: | Sara Almeida; Hanna Berkel; Sam Jones; Patricia Justino; Telça Massingue |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria—programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. |
| Keywords: | Social pensions, Targeting, Mozambique |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-12 |
| By: | Brian Stacy; Maryam Akmal; Halsey Rogers; Sergio Venegas Marin; Hersheena Rajaram; Viyaleta Farysheuskaya |
| Abstract: | Using unique nationally representative school and system survey data from 13 education systems in low and middle-income countries collected through the World Bank’s Global Education Policy Dashboard (GEPD), we examine how the pedagogical practices, including practices to foster student engagement and subject content knowledge of primary-school teachers, correlate with their students’ learning outcomes. The authors find that student performance on literacy (and, to a lesser extent, math) assessments are correlated with receiving instruction from teachers with better-measured pedagogical skills. While the better-pedagogy effect is modest for the entire sample, it is statistically robust and quite substantial for the upper-middle-income countries. Based on a sub-sample of those education systems, we also find that using learning strategies that support greater student engagement appears to be highly predictive of student learning outcomes in literacy. Better pedagogical practices correlate with teachers’ exposure to more practical, school-based pedagogical support, for example through induction or mentoring and feedback on lesson plans, and with better teacher evaluation at the school level. The findings confirm the important role of interventions providing direct pedagogical support and feedback to teachers through training, instructional leadership, and evaluation, and they highlight the potential for interventions to foster student engagement and improve learning outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdgewp:196418 |
| By: | Stephen Broadberry; Kyoji Fukao; Hanhui Guan |
| Abstract: | Comparing the major Asian economies of China, India and Japan without taking account of variations in size suggests that the Asian Little Divergence began in the eighteenth century when Japan overtook first India and then China. However, the Great Divergence debate has focused on when the leading regions of the declining countries first fell behind and there was significant regional variation in GDP per capita in all three countries. Allowing for regional variation significantly changes the dating of the Asian Little Divergence: (1) In China, the Yangzi Delta, with a population about the same size as the whole of Japan, did not fall behind until around the time of the Meiji restoration in 1868. (2) In Japan, the Kinai region forged ahead of the Yangzi Delta around 1800. (3) In India, Mysore remained behind the Yangzi Delta throughout the period 1600-1870 and therefore has less significance for the timing of the Asian Little Divergence. |
| Date: | 2025–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_219 |
| By: | maulidya, Salsabila; N, Adam Nurdin; rohmadani, Fitriatul; Pandin, Maria Yovita R |
| Abstract: | The emergence of the society 5.0 era is colored by the rapid world of digitalization which describes almost all areas of life including the accounting profession. This study aims to determine the development of digitization towards society 5.0 and the efforts and challenges made by the accounting profession in facing this era. This study uses a qualitative approach method with online and offline interview techniques to 2 Respondents of the Public Accounting Firm and 2 Respondents of the Tax Consultant Office. The Society 5.0 era requires accountants to understand technology and use it in their work. This is because accountants play an important role in the world of finance and business, which has a positive impact on efficiency and effectiveness. Therefore, accountant learning must be adapted to technological developments to prepare future accountants who can face the challenges of the digital era. |
| Date: | 2023–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4mskj_v1 |
| By: | Huihui Wang; Delese Mimi Darko; Albert Figueras Sune; Patricio V. Marquez; James Kumwenda |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population-Health Policy and Management |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40382 |
| By: | Heilmann, Felix; Steitz, Janek; Schuster-Johnson, Florian |
| Abstract: | In Schuster-Johnson et al. (2025) schlagen wir eine ökonomisch sinnvolle Schuldenregel vor. Diese zielt auf die Sicherung nachhaltiger Staatsfinanzen durch die Priorisierung produktiver Ausgaben ab. Klimaschutzausgaben stellen hier eine Herausforderung dar, da sie großteils nicht wachstumsfördernd sind. Gleichzeitig müssen die Klimaziele erreicht werden, um die Wohlstandsbasis zu erhalten und zukünftige Kosten zu vermeiden. In diesem Papier zeigen wir, dass aufgrund verschiedener Marktversagen jenseits der CO2 -Externalität staatliche Klimaausgaben notwendig sind, um den Übergang zur Klimaneutralität ohne wirtschaftliche und soziale Verwerfungen zu bewältigen. Anschließend leiten wir her, weshalb die Kreditfinanzierung von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen in begrenztem Umfang möglich sein sollte. Als Lösung schlagen wir vor, dass bestimmte Klimaschutzausgaben als außergewöhnliche Bedarfe in einem reformierten Art. 115 GG mit Tilgungsverpflichtung kreditfinanziert werden können. In einem Ausführungsgesetz sollte spezifiziert werden, dass die Kreditermächtigung nur für notwendige, geeignete und der Höhe nach angemessene Klimaschutzausgaben gilt, die Marktversagen jenseits der CO2 - Externalität adressieren. Gleichzeitig wäre die Kreditermächtigung kurzfristig durch die EU-Fiskalregeln begrenzt, sodass die Klimaziele in Anbetracht der hohen Bedarfe ohne analoge Reformen dieser Regeln nicht sicher oder nur zu hohen wirtschaftlichen Kosten erreicht werden können. |
| Keywords: | Schuldenbremse, Nachhaltigkeit, Dekarbonisierung |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:313400 |
| By: | Putri, Defita Aulia Aryn; Susanti, Titi; Nasrullah, Mochamad Fadhyl; Ni'mah, Liza Tazkiyatin; Guna, Bayu Cakra; Rosyada, Muhamad Alfin; Fanani, Muhammad Fadhil; Nurpaujiah, Neng Inka Najila |
| Abstract: | Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) play an important role in the economic development of a country. This study aims to analyze the effect of gender and capital management on MSME income. The data used in this study were collected through a survey of 30 SMEs in the area of IAIN Syekh Nurjati Cirebon. Regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between the independent variables (gender and management capital) and the dependent variable (MSME income). The results showed that gender did not have a significant effect on MSME income. Meanwhile, capital expenditure has an effect on MSME income. |
| Date: | 2023–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:abeu3_v1 |
| By: | Owen Fleming (Department of Economics, Wayne State University); Lilly Springer (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA) |
| Abstract: | Nurse practitioner (NP) scope of practice (SOP) reform has been shown to improve access to healthcare, leading to direct health benefits. However, given that NPs are likely to practice in underserved areas, liberalizing SOP may also have spillover benefits on safety net program participation, which would amplify the benefits of SOP expansion for underrepresented populations. In this paper, we study these potential spillovers by examining the effect of NP SOP expansions on enrollment in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Leveraging the staggered rollout of NP SOP expansions across states, we find that starting 4-5 years after SOP expansion, total WIC participation increases by 4% in treated states, which rises to 6.8% one decade after SOP expansion. This increase in total WIC enrollment is driven by increases in the enrollment of women and children. Mechanism analyses suggest that while access to healthcare is an important channel, the effect may also be driven by the fact that NPs are trained to deliver holistic, patient-centered care. Our results suggest that spillovers on safety net program participation are another pathway by which NP SOP expansions can improve the health and well-being of underserved populations. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202506 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Urban Development-National Urban Development Policies & Strategies Finance and Financial Sector Development-Access to Finance Poverty Reduction-Access of Poor to Social Services Information and Communication Technologies-Digital Divide |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40642 |
| By: | Sari, Ajeng Rossantika; Sulistiyana, Fitri; Pandin, Maria Yovita R |
| Abstract: | This research has the purpose of analyzing the application of green accounting which has the ability as environmental costs and environmental performance with the level of profit. The research object studied at this time is PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk which uses a descriptive qualitative method where the data collection source is the company's annual report distributed by the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The environmental cost variable has no influence on the level of profit, the environmental performance variable has no influence on the level of profit. This study aims to improve Green Accounting in the application of company profitability. |
| Date: | 2023–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dbhj5_v1 |
| By: | Ines A. Ferreira; Rachel M. Gisselquist; Finn Tarp |
| Abstract: | Knowledge of the factors driving people's views on redistribution in the Global South remains limited. While these societies occupy top positions in inequality rankings, redistribution levels tend to be lower. We combine survey and experimental data from Mozambique and Viet Nam to test whether redistributive preferences vary depending on the source of inequality, focusing on two channels, fairness views and communication. First, we confirm the finding that inequality resulting from differences in merit is more accepted than inequality due to luck or factors outside of individual control. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Distributional preferences, Mozambique, Viet Nam |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-11 |
| By: | Saputri, Fauziah Dwi; Putra, Yosep Eka |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to measure the financial health of Bank Nagari Lubuk Gadang Branch by using the ratio of LDR and NPL. This study uses quantitative data analysis methods, namely analyzing calculations obtained from the financial statements of PT. Bank Nagari Lubuk Gadang Branch in 2019-2021. Based on the results of the analysis that has been carried out, it can be seen that the Loan To Deposit Ratio (LDR) of Bank Nagari Lubuk Gadang Branch in 2019 was 184%, in 2020 it was 187% and in 2021 it was 157%. This means that LDR PT. Bank Nagari Lubuk Gadang Branch for the last three years has been considered unhealthy. Where the Loan To Deposit Ratio (LDR) based on standard criteria of Bank Indonesia > 120% is declared unhealthy. And Non Performing Loans (NPL) at Bank Nagari Lubuk Gadang Branch in 2019 was 0.18%, in 2020 it was 0.28% and in 2021 it was 0.26%. This means that the NPL of PT. Bank Nagari Lubuk Gadang Branch for the last three years has been considered healthy. Where Non- Performing Loans (NPL) based on standard criteria of Bank Indonesia <5% are declared healthy. |
| Date: | 2023–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:c8hqy_v1 |
| By: | Kym Pram; Burkhard C. Schipper (Department of Economics, University of California Davis) |
| Abstract: | We study the design of efficient mechanisms under asymmetric awareness and information. Unawareness refers to the lack of conception rather than the lack of information. Assuming quasi-linear utilities and private values, we show that we can implement in conditional dominant strategies a social choice function that is utilitarian ex-post efficient when pooling all awareness of all agents without the need of the social planner being fully aware ex-ante. To this end, we develop novel dynamic versions of Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanisms in which types are revealed and subsequently elaborated at endogenous higher awareness levels. We explore how asymmetric awareness affects budget balance and participation constraints. We show that ex-ante unforeseen contingencies are no excuse for deficits. Finally, we propose a modified reverse second price auction for efficient procurement of complex incompletely specified projects. |
| Keywords: | dynamic mechanism design, VCG mechanisms, auctions versus negotiations, unknown unknowns, complex projects |
| JEL: | D83 |
| Date: | 2025–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cda:wpaper:372 |
| By: | Bensch, Gunther; Rose, Julian; Neubauer, Florian; Ankel-Peters, Jörg; Brodeur, Abel |
| Abstract: | This report compiles our recent comment on Ahmed, Hodler, and Islam (2024, AHI-2024) and our response to the authors' reply to our comment. Our report is one element in a concerted forensic reproduction of studies based on data collected by GDRI, a Bangladesh-based survey company. We appreciate the authors' acknowledgment of discrepancies in AHI-2024. These are consequential admissions given the forensic nature of this report. We also clarify that these discrepancies are likely to drive AHI-2024's main results. Furthermore, our response shows that the authors' reply contains new contradictions. Overall, our investigation of the paper, the study's documentation, and its replication package raise serious concerns about the integrity of the data and the study design. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:216 |
| By: | René Böheim; David Pichler |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes earnings volatility in Austria from 1980 to 2018, providing a comprehensive view of individual income instability and its demographic and structural determinants. Using administrative data, we examine volatility trends by gender, age, earnings deciles, and employment interruptions. We find that earnings volatility has increased over time, with employment interruptions as a major driver, particularly among employees in low-skill sectors and the lower earnings deciles. Additionally, we observe significant gender differences, with women experiencing higher volatility, often linked to childbirth and family-related career interruptions. Through variance decomposition, we attribute the greater share of volatility to demographic changes, including the impact of migration, sectoral shifts, and the growing labor force participation of women. |
| Keywords: | earnings volatility, employment interruptions, labor market dynamics |
| JEL: | D31 E24 J13 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2025-04 |
| By: | Lome, Rosa Novita |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to develop Unnali' Melo's moral principles as a basis for peace for the Toraja people. The Toraja people, who live in the mountainous region of South Sulawesi, Indonesia, have a rich cultural heritage and traditions, including a strong system of moral values. However, with the development of modernization and the influence of globalization, some traditional aspects of Toraja's moral principles have eroded. Unnali' Melo's moral principles related to peace and social harmony, as well as factors that influence the decline and shift of moral values in Toraja society. Furthermore, this paper will propose concrete steps that can be taken by the people of Toraja, the government, and related institutions to rebuild and strengthen Unnali' Melo's moral principles as the basis for sustainable peace. |
| Date: | 2023–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:wyjrb_v1 |
| By: | Tom Massart |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic triggered unexpected changes within European socio-economic governance, contrasting with the European Union’s (EU) approach during the financial crisis. Instead of strengthening fiscal rules and implementing austerity policies, member states agreed to create a Recovery Plan based on common debt. Joint borrowing within the framework of EU institutions is not new and mostly occurred before the creation of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Since the creation of the European Economic Community in 1957, European institutions have issued common bonds at various times, particularly to help countries with a deteriorating balance of payments. Nevertheless, after the establishment of EMU in the Nineties, no permanent mechanism for mitigating economic shocks was established among member states for fear of moral hazard as well as burden-sharing concerns. A Eurozone budget and common bond issuance were discarded in favour of economic coordination based on a set of rules, known as the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). At the height of the financial crisis (2010-2013), political leaders refused to create a common debt under the EU umbrella to stabilise countries in difficulty. Yet, in 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic brought about an unexpected shift: the issuance of European and Green Bonds under the NextGenerationEU (NGEU) program, aimed at stabilising the economy while supporting digital and green transitions. The agreement to jointly issue bonds marks a temporary departure from the longstanding refusal to establish common debt. This doctoral dissertation focuses on the emergence of the unexpected by investigating the political conditions that led to the NextGenerationEU agreement and the breaking the EU bond taboo. Existing research examines the creation of the NGEU agreement from four analytical perspectives: first, through a naturalist lens, which focuses on the diagnosis of the crisis as an endogenous disaster; second, from supranationalist and intergovernmentalist views, analysing the roles of political actors involved in the Recovery Plan’s design and implementation; third, through historical institutionalism, which explores the temporal processes and institutional shifts leading to NGEU; and finally, from a constructivist perspective, emphasising the ideas mobilised by actors that shaped the Recovery Agreement. While each explanation contributes to the understanding of the return of common debt at the EU level, they are limited by an overemphasis on specific variables, challenges in operationalising theoretical assertions, or deterministic tendencies. Furthermore, a piece of the puzzle is still missing in the literature. How can we explain the fact that common debt issuance, which had occurred in the past, became a taboo that was ultimately broken during the pandemic? In particular, no research provided a convincing analysis of how ideas were strategically reconfigured in a process leading to the emergence of common debt whereas other instruments could have been chosen instead. The answer presented in this doctoral dissertation is grounded in strategic constructivism, providing insights into the political strategies employed by institutional and governmental actors to build consensus amid diverging—and at times opposing—interests and policy preferences. Strategic constructivism allows to analyse the politics of European bonds, where ideas are mobilised strategically and contingently by national and EU actors. In this research, strategic constructivist insights are adapted to include contingency and discourse, away from rationalist assumptions. Concretely, political actors express, legitimise and reconfigure their ideas through discourse contingently. These ideas shape their view about their interests and political preferences. Understanding the political strategy of EU leaders offers a way to grasp how they strategically conceive a phenomenon or a policy in accordance with their interests and policy preferences. In the case of European bonds, the different understandings (polysemy) of the concept enabled EU leaders to forge a consensus, even if they attributed different meanings to common debt because of their divergent interests. Specifically, this doctoral thesis analyses EU leaders’ discourse to make sense of European bonds politics. Through a frame analysis complemented by a study of metaphors, I show that the various understandings of EU bonds evolved during the last decade (2010-2021), following actor’s contingent reconfiguration of their interests and preferences. The country cases selected for this research are the Spanish and Dutch governments, representing opposing interests and preferences along the creditor-debtor cleavage. This focus complements existing research on the influential role of the Franco-German tandem in shaping the Recovery Plan. Additionally, two institutional actors were chosen as case studies: the President of the European Council (EUCO), who formally serves as a consensus-builder, and the Commission’s political leadership, central to European socio-economic governance.Overall, the Spanish and Dutch governments alongside the Commission acted as discursive entrepreneurs during the decade, by forging a consensus on EU bonds close to their respective interests through discourse. Over the decade, the EUCO President aligned at different times with the interests of either low-indebted or high-indebted member states. The reason lies in the fact that the three EUCO Presidents interpreted their mandate differently, viewing themselves either as ‘political’ or ‘diplomatic chairmen’. The Commission’s main interest during the decade was related to the avoidance of policy failure. The institution's discourse demonstrated a desire to legitimise and defend its common debt proposals. For example, the institution tried to reconfigure the meaning of common debt away from fiscal integration. The Commission also attempted to depoliticise EU bond issuance and frame EU bonds as providing financial resources in the form of investment. The Spanish government initially conceived common debt as a tool to accommodate low-indebted countries' interests, while providing southern countries financial support and a deepening of fiscal integration. The Spanish government tried to reshape the prevailing view of the common debt burden by highlighting the contributions of southern debtor countries as well as the collective responsibility of the EU. This reframing was a core part of Spain’s political strategy to foster consensus among member states, alongside an attempt to put pressure on low-indebted member states. The Dutch government acted as a discursive entrepreneur by first opposing joint borrowing and then reluctantly agreeing to it. The Dutch U-turn was part of a political strategy that attempted to tie the financial resources coming from the Recovery Plan with an obligation for countries to implement structural reforms. Following a stable interest in fiscal discipline, the government was able to shift the burden of EU obligations onto highly indebted countries by forcing them to implement long-term reforms in exchange for EU funding. This doctoral thesis extends existing knowledge on the breaking of the common debt taboo, by analysing the political strategy of the opposing countries and institutional actors. This research considers political actors as ‘beings in action’ whose interests and preferences are not a ‘given’ but are relentlessly reconfigured, and so is their political strategy. Strategic constructivism provides a way to bridge the gap between the study of ideas, institutions and actors. In this perspective, further research is needed to shed light on the political strategy of France and Germany and to what extent NGEU’s debt was the result of discursive entrepreneurship from these countries. The mechanisms shaping EUCO Presidents’ view and political strategy also need to be further investigated. In addition, a study of interests and preferences within the European Commission would be interesting to understand the establishment of the institution's political strategy. Finally, this research provides a macro-level forward-looking analysis of the vision regarding public debt and power and the way it feeds into actors’ political strategy. A disconnection exists between the vision of sovereign debt and European bonds, which requires more in-depth knowledge. From this perspective, the NGEU agreement could mark the emergence of a new ‘ontological’ vision, particularly about joint borrowing, considered as a means of protecting the ‘European way of life’. |
| Keywords: | European Bonds; Strategic Constructivism; Discourse Analysis; Covid-19 Pandemic; Recovery Plan |
| Date: | 2025–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/388153 |
| By: | Reid Taylor; Madeline Turland; Joakim A. Weill |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of people are denied home insurance coverage in the private market and must instead turn to state-sponsored plans known as “Insurers of Last Resort.” This paper examines how insurers of last resort interact with the private market under increasing disaster risks. We first present a simple model of an adversely selected insurance market, highlighting that the insurer of last resort allows strict price regulation to be compatible with full insurance. We then empirically study the California non-renewal moratoriums, a regulation that forced insurers to supply insurance to current customers following wildfires in 2019 and 2020. Using quasi-random geographic variation in regulatory borders and a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the moratoriums successfully reduced company-initiated non-renewals and cancellations in the short run. The effects only lasted for one year, with insurers dropping policies as soon as the moratorium lapsed. The moratoriums had no discernible effect on participation in the State’s insurer of last resort. |
| Keywords: | insurance; natural disasters; wildfires |
| JEL: | D22 G22 L10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99740 |