|
on Investment |
| By: | Pierre R. Brochu; David A. Green; Thomas Lemieux; James H. Townsend |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an empirical approach to decompose the distributional effects of minimum wages into effects for workers moving out of employment, workers moving into employment, and workers continuing in employment. We estimate the effects of the minimum wage on the hazard rate for wages, which provides a convenient way of re-scaling the wage distribution to control for possible employment effects. We find that minimum wage increases do not result in an abnormal concentration of Job Leavers below the new minimum wage, which is inconsistent with employment effects predicted by a neoclassical model. We also find that, for Job Stayers, the spike and spillover effects of the minimum wage are simply shifted right to the new minimum wage. Our findings are consistent with a model where entry wages are set according to a job ladder, and where firms anchor their internal wage structure on the minimum wage due to fairness or internal incentives issues. |
| JEL: | J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33479 |
| By: | Chen, Xiaoguang; Huang, Hanwei; Ju, Jiandong; Sun, Ruoyan; Zhang, Jialiang |
| Abstract: | We study infectious diseases in a spatial epidemiology model with forward-looking individuals who weigh disease environments against economic opportunities when moving across regions. This endogenous mobility allows regions to share risk and health resources, resulting in positive epidemiological externalities for regions with high R0s. We develop the Normalized Hat Algebra to analyze disease and mobility dynamics. Applying our model to US data, we find that cross-state mobility controls that hinder risk and resource sharing increase COVID-19 deaths and decrease social welfare. Conversely, by enabling "self-containment" and "self-healing, " endogenous mobility reduces COVID-19 infections by 27.6% and deaths by 22.1%. |
| Keywords: | sird model; spatial economy; endogenous mobility; basic reproduction number; normalized hat algebra; containment policies; Covid-19; coronavirus |
| JEL: | C61 D91 I12 I18 J61 R13 |
| Date: | 2024–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126830 |
| By: | Thomas Simon (L2n - Lumière, nanomatériaux et nanotechnologies - UTT - Université de Technologie de Troyes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marion Cina (LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Xavier Philippe (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School) |
| Abstract: | Organisational absurdity is an emerging field of study in management sciences. Often described in conceptual terms in the existing literature as a loss of meaning arising from the collapsing frontiers of rationality, there have been few attempts to engage empirically with this absurdity, particularly from the perspective of new recruits joining organisations, and more specifically those who have recently completed their studies. Our research seeks to explore the ways in which young graduates respond to organisational absurdity and its consequences. To do this, we use an original empirical approach, which has been recognised elsewhere as a pertinent means of tackling absurdity, namely, fictional analysis. We thus propose an analogy between today's young graduates and the young Romantics of the 19th century, invoking a number of literary references for heuristic ends, in order to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon in question. Now as in centuries past, upon coming face-to-face with absurdity, a considerable number of young people respond by retreating from their professional responsibilities. This state of affairs is illustrated by a series of 35 interviews, revealing a profound sense of disenchantment, which, in many cases, can lead young professionals to turn inwards and withdraw from their professional environments. In the face of this distress, our research invites organisations to rethink the way they manage young graduates. |
| Keywords: | Young graduates, Organisational absurdity, Romanticism, Literature, Crisis of meaning |
| Date: | 2024–01–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04920767 |
| By: | Albouy, David (University of Illinois); Faberman, Jason (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We examine sorting behavior across metropolitan areas by skill over individuals' life cycles. We show that high-skill workers disproportionately sort into high-amenity areas, but do so relatively early in life. Workers of all skill levels tend to move towards lower-amenity areas during their thirties and forties. Consequently, individuals' time use and expenditures on activities related to local amenities are U-shaped over the life cycle. This contrasts with well-documented life-cycle consumption profiles, which have an opposite inverted-U shape. We present evidence that the move towards lower-amenity (and lower-cost) metropolitan areas is driven by changes in the number of household children over the life cycle: individuals, particularly the college educated, tend to move towards lower-amenity areas after having their first child. We develop an equilibrium model of location choice, labor supply, and amenity consumption and introduce life-cycle changes in household composition that affect leisure preferences, consumption choices, and required home production time. Key to the model is a complementarity between leisure time spent going out and local amenities, which we estimate to be large and significant. Ignoring this complementarity and the distinction between types of leisure misses the dampening effect child rearing has on urban agglomeration. Since the value of local amenities is capitalized into housing prices, individuals will tend to move to lower-cost locations to avoid paying for amenities they are not consuming. |
| Keywords: | urban amenities, sorting, migration, life-cycle dynamics |
| JEL: | J30 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17723 |
| By: | Frondel, Manuel; Niehues, Delia; Peetz, Valerie; Sommer, Stephan; Tomberg, Lukas |
| Abstract: | Based on randomized information treatments that were embedded in a large online survey among more than 6, 000 single-home owners from Germany, we investigate the malleability of attitudes towards water conservation and a variety of conservation policies. While the empirical results indicate that, generally, respondents have a positive attitude towards water conservation, this positive attitude is merely slightly lowered by information treatments that included either nuanced or negatively biased information about the necessity of water conservation. In addition, we find that respondents attribute a higher level of concern for water conservation to themselves than to both people in their personal environment and the population in general. Conservation policies, such as education campaigns, price increases for heavy consumers and comparison reports on water consumption are accepted by the majority of respondents and perceived as fair, whereas smart water tariffs and frequent price increases are largely rejected. |
| Abstract: | Auf der Grundlage von randomisierten Informationsbehandlungen, die in eine große Online-Umfrage unter mehr als 6.000 Einfamilienhausbesitzern in Deutschland eingebettet waren, untersuchen wir die Formbarkeit von Einstellungen zum Wassersparen und zu einer Reihe von Einsparungsmaßnahmen. Während die empirischen Ergebnisse darauf hindeuten, dass die Befragten im Allgemeinen eine positive Einstellung zum Wassersparen haben, wird diese positive Einstellung durch Informationsbehandlungen, die entweder nuancierte oder negativ verzerrte Informationen über die Notwendigkeit des Wassersparens enthielten, nur geringfügig gesenkt. Darüber hinaus stellen wir fest, dass die Befragten sich selbst ein höheres Maß an Sorge um die Wassererhaltung zuschreiben als den Menschen in ihrem persönlichen Umfeld und der Bevölkerung im Allgemeinen. Sparmaßnahmen wie Aufklärungskampagnen, Preiserhöhungen für Großverbraucher und Vergleichsberichte über den Wasserverbrauch werden von der Mehrheit der Befragten akzeptiert und als gerecht empfunden, während intelligente Wassertarife und häufige Preiserhöhungen weitgehend abgelehnt werden. |
| Keywords: | Information experiment, policy approval, water conservation policy |
| JEL: | D12 Q25 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:311191 |
| By: | Felipe Alves; Giovanni L. Violante |
| Abstract: | The current monetary policy framework of the Fed intends to be more ’inclusive’ by running the economy hot for longer during expansions. The logic of this strategy rests on Okun’s (1973) hypothesis that sustaining a ‘high-pressure economy’ persistently improves labor market outcomes of low-wage workers. To evaluate this conjecture, we develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian framework with a three-state frictional model of the labor market where low-skilled workers are more exposed to the business cycle and recessions have a long-lasting effect on their labor force participation and earnings, in line with the evidence. Under a canonical Inflation Targeting rule, the ZLB generates a deflationary bias and severely amplifies the persistent scars of recessions at the bottom of the wage distribution. The Lower-for-Longer strategy is an effective antidote to the ZLB-driven hysteresis and leads to notable earnings gains for low-wage workers and a reduction to overall earnings inequality. If pursued aggressively, however, the policy reverts the inflation bias from negative to positive. Since policymakers might prioritize differently inflation relative to inclusion, we conclude by quantifying the inflation-inclusion trade-off implied by various monetary policy rules. |
| JEL: | E10 E30 E5 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33488 |
| By: | Amandine E. Visine (Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology [Leipzig] - Max-Planck-Gesellschaft); Adam H. Boyette (Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology [Leipzig] - Max-Planck-Gesellschaft); Yann Reische Ouamba (UMNG - Université Marien-Ngouabi [Université de Brazzaville] = Marien Ngouabi University [University of Brazzaville]); Sheina Lew-Levy (Durham University); Mallika Sarma (University of Pennsylvania); Haneul Jang (IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology [Leipzig] - Max-Planck-Gesellschaft) |
| Abstract: | Across cultures, mothers face trade-offs between childcare and other labor. In hunter-gatherer societies, mothers face this choice on a daily basis when deciding either to take infants on foraging trips or to leave them with caregivers in the village. Yet, it remains unclear how the presence of infants in foraging groups constrains mothers' mobility during foraging. Here, we present GPS, energy expenditure and food returns data of 359 foraging trips of 23 BaYaka mothers in the Republic of the Congo. We find that mothers spent more time on out-of-village foraging activities when they took infants along, compared to when they left infants behind. However, infant presence in foraging groups does not affect mothers' travel distance, travel range, energy expenditure or food returns. Regardless of infant presence, women travel longer and further in a larger area when foraging in groups, compared to when foraging alone, especially in groups with more adults, females and both kin and non-kin. Our results suggest that BaYaka mothers develop ways to accommodate childcare with foraging activities by combining individual-level and group-level behavioural strategies. Our study highlights that group foraging may allow mothers with infants to maintain high mobility, which may have been a key to human range expansion. |
| Keywords: | Trade-offs, Childcare, Group foraging, Hunter-gatherer mothers |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04919221 |
| By: | Mekki Hamdaoui; Abderraouf Ben Ahmed Mtiraoui (MOFID-Université de Sousse); Zohra Aroussi; Mounir Smida |
| Abstract: | this paper aims to assess the nature of the link between financial and economic crises. to do this, we develop a continuous measure for crisis probability. the methodology employed distinguishes short-from long-term relationships, enhancing the analysis's depth and fortifying the results for autoregressive processes. the study addresses endogeneity and potential simultaneity between different crises using a sample of 49 developed and emerging countries spanning 1984-2016. the empirical investigation incorporates a simultaneous equation, Bayesian Model averaging (BMa) approach, a Panel autoregressive Vector (P-VecM), an autoregressive Distributed lag (arDl) technique, as well as Fully Modified ols (FMols) and Dynamic ols (Dols) methods. Findings indicate that while all crisis types may stem from unfavorable conditions, there exists a time lag in triggering and duration. specifically, economic crises tend to be more persistent and are typically preceded by financial crises. Granger-causality test results support a robust bidirectional causality between financial and real difficulties, with the financial sector influencing the real economy more significantly. Moreover, the study reveals that the impact of economic volatility on financial stability is transient and lacks long-term significance. conversely, the effect of a financial crisis on the real economy is enduring and remains significant in the long run. additionally, exchange market volatility emerges as a crucial determinant for both financial and economic crises.IMPACT STATEMENT our interest in this paper is to focus in the interdependency between economic and financial spheres. in particular, we aim to participate in the construction of a supervisory platform for politicians and policymakers by sequencing the triggering order of any fragility both in financial or real sectors and specifying potential transmission channels. the idea is to increase preventive actions to reduce likelihood of systemic crises by quickly acting to separate the two spheres and reduce possible contagion. |
| Keywords: | Financial and economic crises Bayesian model averaging Markov switching approach P-VecM arDl FMols and Dols, Financial and economic crises, Bayesian model averaging, Markov switching approach, P-VecM, arDl, FMols and Dols |
| Date: | 2025–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04950052 |
| By: | Lazanoe Rajamarison (Université de Toliara - Université de Toliara) |
| Abstract: | The question that should be asked in this article is to know the period during which inflation took place in Madagascar. It could also be asked in this article whether inflation could have existed, or not, in a country where an institute in charge of monetary issuance, or at least, an organization that deals with monetary regulation did not yet exist? This question arises for specialists in economic history, or for a possible expert, given that the objective of this writing is to detect the existence of a correlation between the use of money in a country with an archaic type economy, and a possible existence of inflation which is a phenomenon generated by the circulation of money. This being posed in the sense that Orthodox theory strives to demonstrate the fact that inflation only occurs in the presence of money and an issuing institute (monetary statistics, among other things for measuring inflation). To be able to answer these questions, it was necessary on our part to carry out a bibliographic review, to carry out surveys with the country's Monetary Issue Institute and at the end to divide this present article into two parts, the first of which will try to provide elements of explanation on the introduction of money within the country, and the extent of its power over the entire environment of exchanges, including its intrinsic value. In the second part, on the other hand, an attempt to create a single Malagasy currency will be developed. It would therefore be presented, in this part, some texts justifying the need for the creation of a specifically Malagasy currency, as well as the reaction of pre-colonial society to this project. Some developments in the Malagasy currency in response to the demand of the colonial economy also flesh out this part, and from these analyses, this study will draw a conclusion on a possible existence, or the opposite, of the phenomenon of price increases throughout the Malagasy economy from the time before and during colonization. In conclusion, inflation is a concept generally unknown to the monarchical era; it was an unsuitable concept because the economy of the time was not yet effectively monetized. On the other hand, the concept of inflation was established little by little when the Malagasy Nation began to adopt the European consumption mode. From the moment the country chose to found its own monetary issuing institute, the operation of the money market causes the variation of the currency circuit and automatically creates the needs of the market in terms of financing and refinancing of the economy. In this sense, the supply and demand of money sets the market price (interest rate) and favors or not the variation in the price level. It would therefore be necessary to advance, following this situation, that inflation is truly a monetary phenomenon. |
| Abstract: | La question qui devrait se poser, dans cet article, est de savoir l'époque pendant laquelle l'inflation a eu lieu à Madagascar. Il pourrait être également demandé dans cet article si l'inflation aurait pu exister, ou non dans un pays où un institut en charge de l'émission monétaire, ou du moins, un organisme qui s'occupe de la réglementation monétaire n'existait pas encore ? Cette question se pose à l'endroit des spécialistes en histoire économique, ou à un éventuel expert, étant donné que l'objectif de cet écrit est de décelé l'existence d'une corrélation entre l'utilisation de la monnaie dans une contrée d'économie de type archaïque, et une éventuelle existence de l'inflation qui est un phénomène généré par la circulation de la monnaie. Ceci étant posé dans le sens où la théorie Orthodoxe s'efforce de démonter le fait que l'inflation ne survienne qu'en présence de la monnaie et d'un institut d'émission (de la statistique monétaire, entre autres pour la mesure de l'inflation). Pour pouvoir répondre à ces questions, il s'avérais nécessaire de notre part, de passer à une revue bibliographique, à des enquêtes auprès de l'Institut d'émission monétaire du pays et à la fin de diviser ce présent article en deux parties, dont la première essaiera apporte des éléments d'explications sur l'introduction de la monnaie à l'intérieur du pays, et l'étendue de son pouvoir sur l'ensemble de l'environnement des échanges, incluant de sa valeur intrinsèque. En deuxième partie, par contre, une tentative de création d'une monnaie unique malagasy sera à développer. Il serait donc exposé, dans cette partie, quelques textes justifiant la nécessité d'une création de monnaie proprement malagasy, ainsi que la réaction de la société pré-coloniale par rapport à ce projet. Quelques évolutions de la monnaie malagasy face à la demande de l'économie coloniale viennent également étoffer cette partie, et à partir de ces analyses, cette étude tirera une conclusion sur une éventuelle existence, ou le contraire, du phénomène de hausse de prix dans l'ensemble de l'économie malagasy de l'époque pré et pendant la colonisation. En conclusion, l'inflation est un concept généralement inconnu de l'époque monarchique ; c'était un concept non adapté car l'économie de l'époque n'est pas encore effectivement monétarisée. Par contre, le concept d'inflation s'établi petit à petit lorsque la Nation malagasy commençait à adopter le mode de consommation des européens. A partir du moment où le pays a choisi de fonder son propre institut d'émission monétaire, le jeu du marché monétaire entraine la variation du circuit de la monnaie et créé automatiquement les besoins du marché en termes de financement et du refinancement de l'économie. Dans ce sens, l'offre et la demande de monnaie fixe le prix du marché (taux d'intérêt) et favorise ou non la variation du niveau des prix. Il serait donc nécessaire d'avancer, suivant cette situation que l'inflation est vraiment un phénomène monétaire. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Histoire, Monnaie, Madagascar |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04947196 |
| By: | Karlo Lukic; Lazaros Papadopoulos |
| Abstract: | Google's recent update to the manifest file for Chrome browser extensions-transitioning from manifest version 2 (MV2) to manifest version 3 (MV3)-has raised concerns among users and ad blocker providers, who worry that the new restrictions, notably the shift from the powerful WebRequest API to the more restrictive DeclarativeNetRequest API, might reduce ad blocker effectiveness. Because ad blockers play a vital role for millions of users seeking a more private and ad-free browsing experience, this study empirically investigates how the MV3 update affects their ability to block ads and trackers. Through a browser-based experiment conducted across multiple samples of ad-supported websites, we compare the MV3 to MV2 instances of four widely used ad blockers. Our results reveal no statistically significant reduction in ad-blocking or anti-tracking effectiveness for MV3 ad blockers compared to their MV2 counterparts, and in some cases, MV3 instances even exhibit slight improvements in blocking trackers. These findings are reassuring for users, indicating that the MV3 instances of popular ad blockers continue to provide effective protection against intrusive ads and privacy-infringing trackers. While some uncertainties remain, ad blocker providers appear to have successfully navigated the MV3 update, finding solutions that maintain the core functionality of their ad blockers. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.01000 |
| By: | Yu Gui; Bahar Ta\c{s}kesen |
| Abstract: | We introduce the Statistical Equilibrium of Optimistic Beliefs (SE-OB) for the mixed extension of finite normal-form games, drawing insights from discrete choice theory. Departing from the conventional best responders of Nash equilibrium and the better responders of quantal response equilibrium, we reconceptualize player behavior as that of optimistic better responders. In this setting, the players assume that their expected payoffs are subject to random perturbations, and form optimistic beliefs by selecting the distribution of perturbations that maximizes their highest anticipated payoffs among belief sets. In doing so, SE-OB subsumes and extends the existing equilibria concepts. The player's view of the existence of perturbations in their payoffs reflects an inherent risk sensitivity, and thus, each player is equipped with a risk-preference function for every action. We demonstrate that every Nash equilibrium of a game, where expected payoffs are regularized with the risk-preference functions of the players, corresponds to an SE-OB in the original game, provided that the belief sets coincide with the feasible set of a multi-marginal optimal transport problem with marginals determined by risk-preference functions. Building on this connection, we propose an algorithm for repeated games among risk-sensitive players under optimistic beliefs when only zeroth-order feedback is available. We prove that, under appropriate conditions, the algorithm converges to an SE-OB. Our convergence analysis offers key insights into the strategic behaviors for equilibrium attainment: a player's risk sensitivity enhances equilibrium stability, while forming optimistic beliefs in the face of ambiguity helps to mitigate overly aggressive strategies over time. As a byproduct, our approach delivers the first generic convergent algorithm for general-form structural QRE beyond the classical logit-QRE. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.09569 |
| By: | Ayden Higgins; Koen Jochmans |
| Abstract: | Inference in linear panel data models is complicated by the presence of fixed effects when (some of) the regressors are not strictly exogenous. Under asymptotics where the number of cross-sectional observations and time periods grow at the same rate, the within-group estimator is consistent but its limit distribution features a bias term. In this paper we show that a panel version of the moving block bootstrap, where blocks of adjacent cross-sections are resampled with replacement, replicates the limit distribution of the within-group estimator. Confidence ellipsoids and hypothesis tests based on the reverse-percentile bootstrap are thus asymptotically valid without the need to take the presence of bias into account. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.08311 |
| By: | Sylvestre Badou (EPAC - Ecole Polytechnique d'Abomey Calavi - UAC - Université d’Abomey-Calavi = University of Abomey Calavi, UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Karmadine Hima (UAM - Abdou Moumouni University of Niamey = Université Abdou Moumouni de Niamey); Clément Agbangla (UAC - Université d’Abomey-Calavi = University of Abomey Calavi); Philippe Gauthier (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Antoine A. Missihoun (UAC - Université d’Abomey-Calavi = University of Abomey Calavi); Gualbert Houéménou (EPAC - Ecole Polytechnique d'Abomey Calavi - UAC - Université d’Abomey-Calavi = University of Abomey Calavi); Anne Loiseau (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Carine Brouat (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Gauthier Dobigny (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Unité Peste - Plague Unit [Antananarivo, Madagascar] - Institut Pasteur de Madagascar - Pasteur Network (Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur)) |
| Abstract: | Black rat (Rattus rattus), brown rat (Rattus norvegicus), and house mouse (Mus musculus) are known to be among the most common anthropophilic rodent species in cities worldwide. These species are responsible for the destruction of domestic and industrial materials, considerable damage to food stocks as well as zoonotic pathogens circulation and transmission to humans and animals. These invasive species have disseminated in all continents following human-mediated exchanges, especially maritime transports. In particular, seaports appear as privileged rats and mice's entry points into new regions, thus making them international regulations' priorities for rodent surveillance and management. Yet, studies on seaport rodents are rare; in particular, investigations on their genetic structure are almost inexistent, thus precluding science-guided interventions. In order to fill such a gap, our study focused on the population genetics of R. rattus, R. norvegicus and M. musculus in the Autonomous Port of Cotonou, Benin. Nine different sites were surveyed for three years. In total, 366 R. rattus, 188 R. norvegicus and 244 M. musculus were genotyped using 18 microsatellites, 16 microsatellites and 17 microsatellites, respectively. Our results show very well-structured genetic clusters in all three species as well as limited impacts of rodent control campaigns. Using comparisons with genotypes from other European, Asian and African countries, we suggest for the first time that settlement of newly introduced individuals may be a rare event. Implications in terms of management units and control and monitoring are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Invasive rodents, Population genetics, Movement, Urban, Rodent management |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04091150 |
| By: | Siddharth, L.; Luo, Jianxi |
| Abstract: | Design and innovation processes primarily generate knowledge upon retrieving and synthesising knowledge of existing artefacts. Understanding the basis of knowledge governing these processes is essential for theoretical and practical advances, especially with the growing inclusion of Large-Language Models (LLMs) and their generative capabilities to support knowledge-intensive tasks. In this research, we analyse a large, stratified sample of patented artefact descriptions spanning the total technology space. Upon representing these descriptions as knowledge graphs, i.e., collections of entities and relationships, we investigate the linguistic and structural foundations through frequency distribution and motif discovery approaches. From the linguistic perspective, we identify the generalisable syntaxes that show how most entities and relationships are constructed at the term level. From the structural perspective, we discover motifs, i.e., statistically dominant 3-node and 4-node subgraph patterns, that show how entities and relationships are combined at a local level in artefact descriptions. Upon examining the subgraphs within these motifs, we understand that artefact descriptions primarily capture the design hierarchy of artefacts. We also find that natural language descriptions do not capture sufficiently precise knowledge at a local level, which can be a limiting factor for relevant innovation research and practice. Moreover, our findings are expected to guide LLMs in generating knowledge pertinent to domain-specific design environments, to inform structuring schemes for future knowledge management systems, and to advance design and innovation theories on knowledge synthesis. |
| Date: | 2025–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ncqz3_v2 |
| By: | Brüggemann, Anke; Grewenig, Elisabeth; Rode, Johannes; Schwartz, Michael |
| Abstract: | Die Klimaschutzinvestitionen des deutschen Unternehmenssektors sind im Jahr 2023 um real 5 % auf 85 Mrd. EUR angestiegen. Das zeigt das KfW-Klimabarometer 2024. Dieser Zuwachs wurde im Wesentlichen von Großunternehmen getrieben. Diese haben im Vorjahresvergleich ihre Klimaschutzinvestitionen nochmals deutlich ausgeweitet (+19 % real). Dagegen haben das allgemein gestiegene Preisniveau, steigende Finanzierungskosten sowie die schwache gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung deutliche Bremsspuren in der Investitionstätigkeit des Mittelstands hinterlassen. Die Klimaschutzinvestitionen des gesamten Mittelstands gingen im vergangenen Jahr inflationsbereinigt um 10 % zurück. Auch in herausfordernden Zeiten steht Klimaschutz bei vielen Unternehmen weiterhin auf der Agenda: Die Hälfte der Unternehmen (51 %) berücksichtigt Klimaschutz in ihrer Unternehmensstrategie. 80 % der Großunternehmen und 24 % der größeren Mittelständler verfolgen ein eigenes Klimaneutralitätsziel. |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:153210 |
| By: | Catherine Mathieu (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | L'économie britannique a renoué avec la croissance au premier semestre 2024, le PIB ayant augmenté de 0, 7 % au premier trimestre et de 0, 5 % au deuxième, après avoir baissé de 0, 3 % au second semestre 2023. L'activité a cependant ralenti pendant l'été 2024, le PIB mensuel n'ayant augmenté que de 0, 2 % sur un mois en août, après être resté stable en juin et juillet. L'inflation (mesurée selon l'indice des prix à la consommation harmonisé) a continué de baisser et n'était plus que de 2, 2 % sur un an en août 2024. Le ralentissement des prix et les perspectives d'une nouvelle décélération de l'activité, ont conduit la Banque d'Angleterre à abaisser son taux directeur de 0, 25 point en août dernier, pour l'amener à 5 %. La Banque d'Angleterre continuerait d'abaisser son taux directeur, pour le porter à 4 % au quatrième trimestre 2025. La baisse serait graduelle, la Banque souhaitant s'assurer que l'inflation restera bien proche de 2 %. Mais alors que la politique monétaire s'assouplirait, la politique budgétaire resterait restrictive, bien que les incertitudes soient nombreuses, dans l'attente du budget qui sera présenté le 30 octobre. La croissance du PIB britannique serait de 0, 9 % cette année et de 1, 2 % l'an prochain, proche de celle de la moyenne de la zone euro (respectivement 0, 7 % et 1, 2 %), mais inférieure à celle des États-Unis (2, 5 % et 1, 6 %). L'inflation serait de 1, 8 % sur un an en décembre 2025. Le taux de chômage approcherait 4, 9 %, contre 4 % à l'été 2024. Le déficit public serait ramené de 5, 8 % du PIB à 4, 3 % du PIB, la dette publique approchant 105 % du PIB, contre 100 % à la fin de 2023. À l'automne 2024, la situation conjoncturelle britannique laisse poindre une lumière au bout du tunnel, pour reprendre l'expression du Premier ministre Keir Starmer, lors de son discours devant le congrès des travaillistes, le 24 septembre dernier, mais la longueur du tunnel reste incertaine. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04904202 |
| By: | Kinnear, George (University of Edinburgh); Jones, Ian; Davies, Ben |
| Abstract: | Comparative judgement (CJ) provides methods for constructing measurement scales, by asking assessors to make a series of pairwise comparisons of the artefacts or representations to be scored. Researchers using CJ need to decide how many assessors to recruit and how many comparisons to collect. They also need to gauge the reliability of the resulting measurement scale, with two different estimates in widespread use: Scale Separation Reliability (SSR) and Split-Halves Reliability (SHR). Previous research has offered guidance on these issues, but with either limited empirical support or focused only on education research. In this paper, we offer guidance based on our analysis of 101 CJ datasets that we collated from previous research across a range of disciplines. We present two novel findings, with substantive implications for future CJ research. First, we find that collecting 10 comparisons for every representation is generally sufficient; a more lenient guideline than previously published. Second, we conclude that SSR can serve as a reliable proxy for inter-rater reliability, but recommend that researchers use a higher threshold of .8, rather than the current standard of .7. |
| Date: | 2025–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:c9q3b_v1 |
| By: | Lang, Megan Elizabeth; Soule, Edward; Tinsley, Catherine H. |
| Abstract: | Growing evidence on the links between poverty and psychology has prompted in creased interest in the psychosocial impacts of economic interventions and the economic impacts of psychologically motivated interventions. In practice, psychologically motivated programs typically comprise one of many components in multifaceted poverty alleviation programs. This paper asks, what are the benefits of allocating complementary, marginal investments in anti-poverty programs towards skills development or psychologically-targeted interventions versus direct economic assistance The paper benchmarks two program-based investments against an unconditional cash transfer by randomly assigning participants in an existing anti-poverty program to one of three groups. The first is psychologically-targeted. It focuses on promoting self-confidence, sense of value and self-worth, and perceived social status. The second targets specific skills: goal setting, public speaking, and networking. Both program-based investments cost around USD \$35 per participant, motivating a benchmark, cost-equivalent unconditional cash transfer. The findings show that the psychologically-targeted intervention significantly improves psychosocial outcomes but shows no economic gains relative to cash, while the skills-based program improves economic outcomes with few effects on psychosocial outcomes. The results illustrate that low-cost psychologically-targeted and skills-based interventions can be effective marginal investments relative to a small cash transfer, but their benefits may accrue in different domains. |
| Date: | 2023–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10503 |
| By: | Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes; Pape, Utz Johann |
| Abstract: | Capabilities to track fast-moving economic developments re-main limited in many regions of the developing world. This complicates prioritizing policies aimed at supporting vulnerable populations. To gain insight into the evolution of fluid events in a data scarce context, this paper explores the ability of recent machine-learning advances to produce continuous data in near-real-time by imputing multiple entries in ongoing surveys. The paper attempts to track inflation in fresh produce prices at the local market level in Papua New Guinea, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. This application is made challenging by high intra-month price volatility, low cross-market price correlations, and weak price trends. The modeling approach uses chained equations to produce an ensemble prediction for multiple price quotes simultaneously. The paper runs cross-validation of the prediction strategy under different designs in terms of markets, foods, and time periods covered. The results show that when the survey is well-designed, imputations can achieve accuracy that is attractive when compared to costly–and logistically often infeasible–direct measurement. The methods h ave wider applicability and could help to fill crucial data gaps in data scarce regions such as the Pacific Islands, especially in conjunction with specifically designed continuous surveys. |
| Date: | 2023–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10559 |
| By: | Richhild Moessner |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of country-specific energy prices on food consumer price inflation (CPI) within a cross-country Phillips curve framework. It considers a panel of 36 OECD member and candidate economies using quarterly data from the start of 1994 to the end of 2021. We find that energy CPI inflation has a significantly positive effect on food CPI inflation, after controlling for the output gap, exchange rate changes and global factors. This result is generally robust to also controlling for inflation expectations, global food commodity prices and core CPI inflation. We also find that the effect of energy CPI inflation on food CPI inflation is significantly larger when energy dependency is higher. |
| Keywords: | inflation, food prices, energy prices |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11682 |