|
on Investment |
| By: | Tosi, Marco; Arpino, Bruno |
| Abstract: | Objective The goal of this brief report is to analyze the association between parental separation and parent-adult child contact frequency, by focusing on parent and child gender and the type of contact. Background Parental separation increases gender inequality in parent-child relationships, with separated fathers having less frequent contact with their adult children compared to separated mothers. We investigate whether the reduction of post-separation contact varies according to parent-child gender (mis-)match and the type of contact, i.e. face-to-face, phone, or digital. Method We use data on Italian families from a nationally representative survey to examine parent-child contact frequency among 6, 855 adult children aged 30-55 (11, 332 parent-child dyads). We estimate multinomial logistic regression models to analyze the probabilities of having sporadic, occasional, and frequent contact with older parents in intact and non-intact families. Results Parental separation is associated with less frequent face-to-face, phone and digital contact between parents and their adult children, particularly between fathers and their daughters, while mother-daughter ties remain substantially unaffected. Face-to-face and phone contact reduces at greater extent than digital contact. However, changes in phone and digital contact reinforces, rather than compensates for, the reduction of face-to-face contact following parental separation. Conclusion We interpret these findings by focusing on the centrality of mother-daughter ties and the loyalty that children have with the same-gender parent. We also suggest that the cumulative effect of parental separation on different types of contact may lead to a polarization of older parents with “strong” and “weak” family ties. |
| Date: | 2024–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yzpbe_v1 |
| By: | Orecchia, Carlo; Cala, Valerio Ferdinando; de Cristofaroa, Fabiana; Dudu, Hasan |
| Abstract: | One of Italy’s key objectives is to reform and modernize the tax system to increase tax efficiency and improve environmental sustainability and regional economic outcomes, in line with the European Union strategy. Within the framework of the European Green Deal, Italy is committed to contributing to the goal of becoming the first climate neutral region by 2050 (the “Fit for 55” package). As an intermediate step toward the 2050 target, the European Union must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Carbon pricing is at the core of the proposal, but its full implementation is also expected to have regressive effects, harming poorer households, and adverse economic impacts, reducing firms’ competitiveness. This paper evaluates the effects of the carbon pricing proposal of the “Fit for 55” package on welfare, sectoral production, and income distribution. To tackle the adverse social and economic effects, it compares different revenue recycling schemes shifting the tax burden from major direct and indirect taxes to carbon emissions. It finds that well-targeted revenue recycling policies might significantly reduce the negative effects. The analysis adopts the Italian Regional and Environmental Computable General Equilibrium of the Department of Finance model, which is a new (recursive) dynamic computable general equilibrium model developed by the Italian Ministry of the Economy with technical assistance from the World Bank. It has a detailed energy specification that allows for capital/labor/energy substitution in production, intra-fuel energy substitution across all demand agents, a multi-output and multi-input production structure, an extended energy system with 11 different types of technologies, multiple households to address distributional impacts, and detailed information on the Italian tax system. |
| Date: | 2023–10–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10592 |
| By: | Weaich, Malcolm (University of Witwatersrand) |
| Abstract: | This study interrogates the conceptual frameworks surrounding young people's livelihood strategies, particularly focusing on those contending with acute insecurity and precariousness in the Global South. A bibliometric analysis provides a critical evaluation of the shifting landscape of future work, revealing substantive gaps in literature related to young people, their wellbeing, and livelihoods. These gaps are most pronounced in the articulation of livelihood components and their interconnections with wellbeing, sustainable development, and equitable energy transitions. Addressing these lacunae, the study enhances the conceptual understanding of access within livelihoods research and advocates for the integration of a Relational Well-Being approach. This research underscores the salience of relationality in comprehending young people's future livelihoods, seeking to provide an objective nuanced understanding of the interplay between livelihood strategies and the multifarious aspects of wellbeing. In particular, the study delineates three pivotal categories for future research: examining the impact of social relationships and community networks on the livelihood strategies and wellbeing of young people; identifying the barriers and facilitators to sustainable livelihoods within the prism of Relational Well-Being; and exploring how the Relational Well-Being framework can refine existing conceptualisations of livelihood and wellbeing, aimed at forging sustainable interventions. By critically engaging with the definitions and scope of “young people” in scholarly inquiry, this study fosters a deeper engagement with young people's lived realities, their livelihoods, and Relational Well-Being, with an expanded emphasis on the Global South. The outcome of this research develops twenty possible future studies from the data analysed. |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fhng9_v1 |
| By: | Bachmann, Ronald; Klauser, Roman |
| Abstract: | Labour markets are constantly subject to exogenous factors such as technological change and trade shocks. Beyond their direct effects, these factors are likely to affect workers' fears of losing their job in the foreseeable future. We therefore investigate workers' reactions to increased job loss fears, the determinants of job loss fears, and the interaction of determinants, fears, and workers' reactions. We focus on two potential reactions, training and job mobility, and three potential determinants, trade, robots and unemployment rates. Our analysis shows that increased job loss fears lead to higher job and occupational mobility, but not to higher training participation. Higher import exposure is associated with higher fears, whereas higher robot exposure slightly reduces job loss fears. Our results have important implications for firms and policymakers. |
| Abstract: | Arbeitsmärkte sind ständig externen Einflüssen wie technologischem Fortschritt und Handelsschocks ausgesetzt. Diese Faktoren haben nicht nur direkte Auswirkungen auf Beschäftigte, sondern beeinflussen darüber hinaus auch die Sorgen von Arbeitnehmenden, ihren Arbeitsplatz in naher Zukunft zu verlieren. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysieren wir, wie Beschäftigte auf steigende Ängste eines Arbeitsplatzverlust reagieren, welche Determinanten diese Ängste bestimmen und die Wechselwirkung zwischen den Determinanten, den Ängsten und den Reaktionen der Beschäftigten. Unser Fokus liegt auf zwei möglichen Reaktionen - Weiterbildung und berufliche Mobilität - sowie auf drei möglichen Determinanten: Handel, Roboter und lokale Arbeitslosenquoten. Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass zunehmende Ängste eines Arbeitsplatzverlustes zu einer höheren beruflichen Mobilität führen, jedoch nicht zu einer höheren Teilnahme an Weiterbildungsmaßnahmen. Ein höheres Maß an Importabhängigkeit ist mit erhöhten Ängsten verbunden, während eine stärkere Robotisierung am Arbeitsplatz die Sorgen eines Arbeitsplatzverlustes leicht reduziert. Unsere Ergebnisse haben wichtige Implikationen für Unternehmen sowie politische Entscheidungsträger. |
| Keywords: | Job loss expectations, training, job mobility, occupational mobility |
| JEL: | D84 J24 J62 M53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:312425 |
| By: | Eichfelder, Sebastian; Knaisch, Jonas David; Schneider, Kerstin |
| Abstract: | We analyze how the expiration of a regional bonus depreciation regime in eastern Germany (Development Area Law, DAL) affected real investments and asset structures of establishments in the manufacturing sector. Our rich administrative data allow us not only to identify the aggregate effect, but also to determine which types of investments and firms are most affected. Our baseline results indicate that the DAL increased real aggregate investment by 16.0% to 19.9%. This effect is stronger for investments in buildings (76.6% to 92.9%) with long regular depreciation periods and land (108.0% to 121.3%) that cannot be depreciated regularly. The impact on equipment investment is much smaller (7.3% to 10.5%). Thus, firms not only increased real investment, but also adjusted their asset structure in response to the policy. We observe significantly stronger investment responses for large firms with lower tax planning and compliance costs and multi-establishment firms with more opportunity for subsidy shopping. However, we do not find evidence that firms with higher financial reporting costs (i.e., incorporated firms and firms without an active business owner) show a weaker investment response. |
| Keywords: | bonus depreciation, real investment, user cost of capital, tax elasticity |
| JEL: | G11 H25 H32 M41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arqudp:312395 |
| By: | Aca, Zeynep; Kırcal-Şahin, Arzu; Özdemir, Akın; Kaymakcı, Yavuz Selim |
| Abstract: | Introduction: Gender roles and stereotypes play a significant role in shaping the nursing profession, perpetuating systemic inequities that negatively impact professional experiences and healthcare system efficiency. In Türkiye, patriarchal norms and systemic disparities exacerbate these workplace challenges, particularly for female nurses. Methods: This qualitative study utilized semi-structured interviews with 13 female nurses working in intensive care units to examine the influence of societal expectations, workplace discrimination, and institutional policies on gender inequities in nursing. Results: The findings reveal that cultural norms, family influence, and constrained career planning often channel women into nursing, reinforcing perceptions of the profession as an extension of caregiving roles. While participants rejected the notion of nursing as a “women’s profession, ” their narratives highlighted the pervasive impact of gendered expectations. Additionally, political favoritism and nepotism were identified as factors exacerbating workplace challenges, reflecting broader systemic issues in Türkiye’s labor market. The normalization of gender norms and their internalization by female nurses further complicate efforts to combat discrimination. Discussion: The study underscores the necessity for policy interventions to address systemic gender inequities in nursing. Recommendations include implementing mandatory gender equality education within healthcare institutions, stricter enforcement of anti-violence laws, and the establishment of psychological and legal support systems for workplace violence victims. Additional measures, such as childcare support and regulations against marital status-based discrimination, are essential to mitigate inequities. By addressing societal, cultural, and institutional factors, this research provides actionable strategies for healthcare organizations and policymakers to promote equity and improve sector efficiency. |
| Keywords: | workplace discrimination; professional growth; female nurses; healthcare inequality; gender inequities |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127233 |
| By: | Adewopo, Julius Babatunde; Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes; Peter, Helen; Solano-Hermosilla, Gloria; Micale, Fabio |
| Abstract: | High-frequency monitoring of food commodity prices is important for assessing and responding to shocks, especially in fragile contexts where timely and targeted interventions for food security are critical. However, national price surveys are typically limited in temporal and spatial granularity. It is cost prohibitive to implement traditional data collection at frequent timescales to unravel spatiotemporal price evolution across market segments and at subnational geographic levels. Recent advancements in data innovation offer promising solutions to address the paucity of commodity price data and guide market intelligence for diverse development stakeholders. The use of artificial intelligence to estimate missing price data and a parallel effort to crowdsource commodity price data are both unlocking cost-effective opportunities to generate actionable price data. Yet, little is known about how the data from these alternative methods relate to independent ground truth data. To evaluate if these data strategies can meet the long-standing demand for real-time intelligence on food affordability, this paper analyzes open-source daily crowdsourced data (104, 931 datapoints) from a recently published data set in Nature Journal, relative to complementary ground truth sample. The paper subsequently compares these data to open-source monthly artificial intelligence–generated price data for identical commodities over a 36-month period in northern Nigeria, from 2019 to 2022. The results show that all the data sources share a high degree of comparability, with variation across commodity and market segments. Overall, the findings provide important support for leveraging these new and innovative data approaches to enable data-driven decision-making in near real time. |
| Date: | 2024–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10758 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Abstract: | The environment has long been the foundation of human flourishing, but its continued degradation is threatening to reverse recent development gains, especially in human health. This paper analyzes the possible complementarity between natural and human capital by linking high-resolution deforestation data with health outcomes for 0.7 million children across 46 countries. Forest loss is often a consequence of economic activities that may confer market and other benefits. At the same time, it can adversely affect the provision of forest ecosystem services and reduce the associated socioeconomic and environmental benefits for rural communities. The net effect is thus ambiguous. The paper focuses on the hydrological services provided by forests and exploits quasi-random variation in deforestation upstream to assess the impacts on waterborne disease outcomes for rural households downstream. The results not only indicate increases in diarrheal disease incidence among children under 5 years old, but also offer new evidence of early-life exposure to deforestation on childhood stunting, a well-known indicator of later-life productivity. A case study for Peru shows similar results for diarrheal disease, but a weaker effect of forest loss on stunting. The paper concludes that maintaining natural capital has the potential to generate meaningful improvements in long-run human capital. |
| Date: | 2023–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10617 |
| By: | Metiu, Norbert |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the Bundesbank's weekly financial stress indicator for Germany. The indicator condenses several financial market variables into a summary measure of financial stress. It represents a contemporaneous, market-based indicator that captures the materialisation of systemic risk along three different risk dimensions - credit, liquidity and market risk. Judged by this measure, the German financial system has experienced its most severe financial stress period since 2002 during the 2008 global financial crisis, with highly elevated levels in all three dimensions of financial stress. The indicator also points to historically high stress levels during the euro area sovereign debt crisis in the early 2010s. Recent readings of the indicator, by contrast, indicate historically low levels of financial stress. |
| Keywords: | diffusion index, factor model, financial conditions, financial stability |
| JEL: | E44 E51 G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:312405 |
| By: | Bergschneider, Henrik; Heger, Dörte |
| Abstract: | Growing needs for long-term care coupled with a dwindling supply of nursing personnel is a common challenge for developed countries. To uphold care standards, many countries introduced measures to safeguard staffing levels, e.g. by introducing minimum staffing regulations for nursing homes. However, evidence on the causal relationship of nurse staffing levels and quality of care is still inconclusive. This paper adds to the sparse evidence of the effect of nursing personnel employed in nursing homes and objective quality of care and accounts for different qualification levels of nursing personnel. We find that more registered nurses lead to better quality outcomes for nursing home residents while nursing assistants do not influence our objective quality measures. |
| Abstract: | Der wachsende Bedarf an Langzeitpflege in Kombination mit einem schrumpfenden Angebot an Pflegekräften stellt eine zentrale Herausforderung für entwickelte Länder dar. Um die Versorgungsstandards aufrechtzuerhalten, haben viele Länder Maßnahmen zur Sicherung der Personalausstattung ergriffen, beispielsweise durch die Einführung von Mindestpersonalvorgaben für Pflegeheime. Dennoch bleibt die Evidenz über den kausalen Zusammenhang zwischen der Anzahl von Pflegekräften und der Pflegequalität uneindeutig. Diese Studie trägt zur bisher begrenzten Evidenz über den Einfluss des in Pflegeheimen beschäftigten Pflegepersonals auf objektive Qualitätsindikatoren bei und berücksichtigt dabei unterschiedliche Qualifikationsniveaus des Pflegepersonals. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine höhere Anzahl an examinierten Pflegefachkräften zu besseren Pflegequalitätsergebnissen für Pflegeheimbewohner führt, während Pflegehilfskräfte keinen Einfluss auf unsere objektiven Qualitätsmaße haben. |
| Keywords: | Quality of care, long-term care, nursing shortage |
| JEL: | I11 I18 J63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:312429 |
| By: | Julie Moschion (University of Queensland; ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course; IZA); Jan C. van Ours (Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute; CEPR; IZA; Centre for Health Economics, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of Australians who display high rates of early school-leaving, we compare the trajectories of respondents who left school at each incremental age between 14 and 17 with respondents who left at 18 years old or more, in terms of homelessness, incarceration, substance use and mental health issues. Leveraging recent methodological advances, we estimate a staggered difference-in-difference to: eliminate biases arising from reverse causality or unobserved time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity and account for heterogenous treatment effects across cohorts and time. Results indicate that leaving school before age 18 increases males’ likelihood of experiencing homeless, being incarcerated, using cannabis daily and illegal street drugs weekly several years after school-leaving. In contrast, for females the difference-in-difference strategy eliminates the correlations between school-leaving age and their outcomes, providing some support for a causal interpretation of our findings. To minimise concerns that gender specific time-varying unobserved heterogeneity may be driving our results, we also show that while the occurrence and timing of parental separation and other adverse behaviours coincide with early school-leaving, our results are robust to accounting for these. Taken together, our findings suggest that preventing early school-leaving can help disadvantaged youth break cycles of multi-dimensional disadvantage. |
| Keywords: | Education, Homelessness, Substance use, Incarceration, Mental health |
| JEL: | C23 I12 I24 I32 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2025-02 |
| By: | Helmers, Viola; Van der Werf, Edwin |
| Abstract: | The taxation of aviation is a frequently discussed component of governments' efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines the impact of the German aviation tax on passenger numbers during the period 2011-2019 using five panel data estimators and a Specification Curve Analysis (SCA) to assess the robustness of the results to changes in the specifications of the econometric model. Employing five base models, we find that the tax induced a 6-11% reduction in the number of passengers departing annually from Germany in the first two years after implementation. For later years, estimated effects are more ambiguous. The SCA, comprising 175 alternative specifications, corroborates our main findings while showing a slightly wider range of effect sizes, especially on the upper bound. The results show that the choice of econometric method can affect research outcomes, especially for the fourth year of the tax and onward. |
| Abstract: | Die Besteuerung des Luftverkehrs ist eine häufig diskutierte Maßnahme von Regierungen zur Verringerung von Treibhausgasemissionen. Diese Studie untersucht die Auswirkungen der deutschen Luftverkehrsteuer auf Passagierzahlen im Zeitraum 2011-2019 mit Hilfe von fünf Paneldatenschätzern und einer Specification Curve Analysis (SCA), um die Robustheit der Ergebnisse gegenüber Änderungen in den Spezifikationen des ökonometrischen Modells zu bewerten. Unter Verwendung von fünf verschiedenen Schätzern stellen wir fest, dass die Steuer in den ersten beiden Jahren nach Einführung der Steuer zu einem Rückgang der Anzahl der jährlich aus Deutschland abfliegenden Passagiere um 6-11 % führte. Für die nachfolgenden Jahre sind die geschätzten Effekte uneindeutig. Die SCA, welche weitere 175 alternative Spezifikationen umfasst, bestätigt unsere Hauptergebnisse und zeigt eine etwas breitere Spanne von Effektgrößen, insbesondere im oberen Bereich. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Wahl der ökonometrischen Methode die Ergebnisse maßgeblich beeinflussen kann, in diesem Fall insbesondere für die Effekte ab dem vierten Jahr der Steuer. |
| Keywords: | Aviation policy, aviation tax, passenger tax, transport economics, dynamic panel model, specification curve analysis |
| JEL: | C21 C23 H23 R48 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:312424 |
| By: | Stacciarini, João Henrique Santana (Federal University of Goiás); Gonçalves, Ricardo Junior de Assis Fernandes |
| Abstract: | The energy transition has driven the rapid expansion of associated technologies, such as solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. Although promoted as clean and renewable, these technologies, due to their intrinsic characteristics, rely heavily on minerals for their manufacturing - many of which have recently been classified as critical. This article examines the impact of the significant increase in demand for these minerals. Using the International Renewable Energy Agency’s definition of critical minerals - which includes cobalt, nickel, copper, lithium, and rare earth elements - we conducted extensive data collection, systematization, and analysis on a global scale to identify the main producing countries and the contexts surrounding their extraction. The results reinforce a historical pattern in which most critical minerals for the energy transition originate from Global South nations, predominantly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. In countries where environmental, social, and economic regulations are often more flexible, the profitability of large international corporations is favored. Furthermore, our findings reveal that, in many cases, the extraction of these minerals is linked to severe social, environmental, and economic impacts, ranging from extreme pollution and worker contamination by toxic metals to the financing of militias associated with authoritarian military regimes. These issues, often overlooked in dominant energy transition narratives, deserve greater attention and reflection from both the scientific community and society at large. |
| Date: | 2025–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n8m57_v1 |
| By: | Pagani, Anna; Macmillan, Alex; Savini, Federico; Davies, Michael; Zimmermann, Nici |
| Abstract: | The shortage of social housing is a crucial element of the UK housing crisis. In England, social housing provision significantly relies on market homes construction, with detrimental impacts on residents and the environment. Moratoria are often cited in the degrowth literature as policy tools to break free from growth-driven mechanisms and achieve high levels of well-being while reducing environmental pressures. However, the systemic effects of such a policy on housing and its potential drawbacks are at present understudied. This study explores the extent to which a moratorium on new housebuilding would be effective, desirable, and feasible; for this purpose, it focuses on its impact on the provision of social homes. We used causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to formulate dynamic hypotheses on the effects of a moratorium on the structures underpinning the construction and demolition of social housing estates. In a workshop with four London-based housing associations, we discussed perceived obstacles or opportunities to its uptake. Our CLDs suggest that a moratorium could help to address the growth-dependent mechanisms of social housing provision, with systemic benefits for both tenants and housing associations. However, the workshop revealed that its adoption would depend on whether the maintenance, repair, and retrofit of the existing stock could offset the perceived advantages of new construction (e.g., quality, quantity, adequacy). Through the use of systems thinking tools, our findings support dialogue around alternatives to the growth-dependent paradigm undermining housing provision within planetary boundaries. |
| Date: | 2024–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:f6suj_v1 |
| By: | Lee, Jinsook; Harvey, Emma; Zhou, Joyce; Garg, Nikhil; Joachims, Thorsten; Kizilcec, René F. (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | Each year, selective American colleges sort through tens of thousands of applications to identify a first-year class that displays both academic merit and diversity. In the 2023-2024 admissions cycle, these colleges faced unprecedented challenges to doing so. First, the number of applications has been steadily growing year-over-year. Second, test-optional policies that have remained in place since the COVID-19 pandemic limit access to key information that has historically been predictive of academic success. Most recently, longstanding debates over affirmative action culminated in the Supreme Court banning race-conscious admissions. Colleges have explored machine learning (ML) models to address the issues of scale and missing test scores, often via ranking algorithms intended to allow human reviewers to focus attention on ‘top’ applicants. However, the Court’s ruling will force changes to these models, which were previously able to consider race as a factor in ranking. There is currently a poor understanding of how these mandated changes will shape applicant ranking algorithms, and, by extension, admitted classes. We seek to address this by quantifying the impact of different admission policies on the applications prioritized for review. We show that removing race data from a previously developed applicant ranking algorithm reduces the diversity of the top-ranked pool of applicants without meaningfully increasing the academic merit of that pool. We contextualize this impact by showing that excluding data on applicant race has a greater impact than excluding other potentially informative variables like intended majors. Finally, we measure the impact of policy change on individuals by comparing the arbitrariness in applicant rank attributable to policy change to the arbitrariness attributable to randomness (i.e., how much an applicant’s rank changes across models that use the same policy but are trained on bootstrapped samples from the same dataset). We find that any given policy has a high degree of arbitrariness (i.e. at most 9% of applicants are consistently ranked in the top 20%), and that removing race data from the ranking algorithm increases arbitrariness in outcomes for most applicants. |
| Date: | 2024–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hds5g_v1 |
| By: | Vesa Pursiainen (University of St. Gallen; Swiss Finance Institute); Hanwen Sun (University of Bath, School of Management); Qiong Wang (Southeast University); Guochao Yang (School of Accounting, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law; IIDPF, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law) |
| Abstract: | A unique natural experiment in China – the city-level staggered introduction of administrative approval centers (AAC) – reduces bank loan processing times by substantially speeding up the process of registering collateral without affecting credit decisions. Following the establishment of an AAC, firms significantly reduce their cash holdings. State-owned enterprises are less affected. Cash flow sensitivity of cash holdings decreases, as does the cash flow sensitivity of investment. The share of short-term debt increases, while inventory holdings and reliance on trade credit decrease. Defaults also decrease. These results suggest that timely access to credit has important implications on firms' financial management. |
| Keywords: | banking, efficiency, precautionary cash holdings, capital management, corporate loans |
| JEL: | D25 G21 G28 G32 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2517 |
| By: | Amoozadeh Mahdiraji, Hanif |
| Abstract: | The culture of cynicism expresses that problems in sustainable financial resource security could come from the historical distrust of society members and the government. This study uses a simulated experiment to evaluate this claim while analyzing possible solutions to escape this non-cooperation trap. Therefore, it analyzes the “reasons behind this non-cooperation” while evaluating effective methods to get out of it with an experimental approach using the gaming method as a simulation tool. In this experiment, more than 1, 200 people participated in the game through a telegram robot. The experiment results show that people’s cooperation with the government is affected by the government's performance more than the cooperation between other society members or their previous experiences. Finally, a logistic regression model is presented to predict the behavior of participants in the future. |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jx4h9_v1 |
| By: | de Graaff, Sabine; Wanzenböck, Iris; Frenken, Koen |
| Abstract: | Different interpretations of ‘directionality’ in innovation policy and sustainability transitions literatures suggest the need for distinguishing between actors ‘giving direction’ contributing to transformative change, and ‘systemic directionality’ as a feature of transformative change required to address urgent societal challenges. In a first step towards bridging these understandings, we emphasize the process-oriented and political nature of directionality, and mobilize political theory to conceptualize the politics of directionality. The questions:‘who gives which direction, where, how, when and why’ are employed to discuss the politics of directionality in an integrative literature review of five policy process frameworks: Multiple Streams Framework (MSF), Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), Policy Feedback Theory (PFT), Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) and the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF). We present a conceptual framework integrating insights from policy process frameworks for conceptualizing the politics of directionality as involving both actors giving direction and the systemic directionality of transformative change. |
| Date: | 2023–11–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:au9hq_v1 |
| By: | Ramachandran, Rajesh (Monash University Malaysia); Rustagi, Devesh (University of Warwick); Emilia Soldani, Emilia (OECD) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether discrimination by teachers explains the large gap in educational outcomes between students from marginalized and non-marginalized groups. Using the context of India, we start with a correspondence study to show that teachers assign 0.29 standard deviations lower grade to an exam of equal quality but with a lower caste surname. We then conduct incentivized surveys, behavioral experiments, and vignettes to highlight some of the invisible elements that are critical to understanding discrimination. We find that teachers hold biased attitudes and beliefs about lower caste individuals, which are associated with poor grading outcomes. We conduct a mechanism intervention based on invoking empathy among teachers to mitigate discrimination. We find that discrimination disappears in the treatment group, and the effect is largest for teachers with higher baseline empathy. These findings are not due to social desirability. Our findings offer a proof-of-concept to understand mental processes that could be instrumental in designing policies to mitigate discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination ; Correspondence study ; Caste ; Attitudes ; Beliefs ; Empathy ; India JEL Codes: C90 ; I24 ; J15 ; J16 ; Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1545 |
| By: | Reiss, Michael V.; Roggenkamp, Hauke |
| Abstract: | We examine the reproducibility and robustness of the central claims from Robertson et al. (2023) who investigate the impact of negative language on online news consumption by analyzing over 12, 448 randomized controlled trials on upworthy.com. Applying "lexical" sentiment analyses, the authors make two central claims: first, they find that headlines with negative words significantly increase click-through rates (CTR). Second, they find that positive words in a headline reduce a news headline's CTR. Our reproducibility efforts include two different techniques: using the same data and procedures described in the study, we successfully reproduce the two claims through a blind computational approach, with only minor and inconsequential discrepancies. When using the authors' codes, we reproduce the two claims with identical numerical results. Examining the robustness of the authors' claims in a pre-registered third step, we validate and apply a "semantic" sentiment analysis using two large language models to re-compute their independent variables describing negativity and positivity. While we find support for the negativity bias, we do not find semantic (in contrast to lexical) positivity to reduce online news consumption. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:199 |
| By: | Seiden, Jonathan Michael; Hasan, Amer; Luna Bazaldua, Diego Armando |
| Abstract: | In Pakistan, learning poverty among primary school aged children is estimated to be as high as 77 percent, but little data exist on early learning experiences. This paper describes the state of classroom quality in 1, 395 classrooms and the early childhood development status of 8, 249 children in a representative sample of 894 public schools in South Punjab, using two measurement tools: The Teach ECE classroom observation tool, which describes the structural and process quality features of classrooms, and the Anchor Items for the Measurement of Early Childhood Development Direct Assessment which reports on early learning and developmental outcomes of children aged 4 to 6 years. The paper finds key gaps in the foundational skills of young children and areas for improvement in both the physical classroom and teaching practices. In examining the relationships between teaching practices and early childhood development outcomes, the analysis finds a strong positive relationship across the areas of process quality and domains of childhood development. Children studying in a high-quality classroom have outcomes that are equivalent to having been in school nine months longer than children of similar ages in an average quality classroom, suggesting that a sharper focus on teaching quality may improve early childhood development outcomes and school readiness. The findings also show that after accounting for teaching quality, degrees and certification are not associated with early childhood development outcomes, but that classes taught by female teachers have better early childhood development outcomes. |
| Date: | 2024–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10764 |
| By: | Midgette, Greg; Spreen, Thomas Luke; Porter, Lauren C.; Reuter, Peter; Hitchens, Brooklynn K. |
| Abstract: | Reforms to deploy civilian responders to non-criminal emergency calls may reduce demands on police departments and reduce negative interactions between police and civilians, but there is presently little empirical evidence on the feasibility of these proposals. We develop a model to evaluate which calls could be transitioned to civilian responders based on their crime risk. We use a rich dataset of community-initiated emergency calls to Baltimore Police Department to evaluate the effect of re-tasking based on three call diversion design scenarios. We find that 22 to 57 percent of 911 calls could be assigned to civilians. We then apply Monte Carlo methods to estimate the financial and time use implications of transferring low risk calls to civilians. Under the most conservative scenario, re-tasking frees police officer time equivalent to 59 additional full-time officers (95% CI: 43 – 75 officers), about nine percent of the Department’s current patrol personnel. |
| Date: | 2024–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:kct4y_v1 |
| By: | Wintemute, Garen J.; Robinson, Sonia; Crawford, Andrew; Tomsich, Elizabeth A.; Reeping, Paul M; Shev, Aaron; Velasquez, Bradley; Tancredi, Daniel Joseph (University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | Background: A 2022 survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, of beliefs associated with such violence, and of belief that civil war was likely in the near future. It is important to determine the durability of those findings. Methods: Wave 2 of a nationally representative cohort survey was conducted May 18-June 8, 2023; the sample comprised all respondents to 2022’s Wave 1. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions; changes from 2022 to 2023 are for respondents who participated in both surveys, based on aggregated individual change scores. Results: The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, 50.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.4%, 52.1%) were female; weighted mean (± standard deviation) age was 48.5 (±25.9) years. One in 6 (16.1%, 95% CI 15.0%, 17.1%) agreed strongly/very strongly in 2023 that “having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy, ” a 2.3% decrease from 2022. About 1 in 20 (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly/very strongly that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States, ” a 7.7% decrease. Of these respondents, 38.4% (95% CI 32.3%, 44.5%) strongly/very strongly agreed that “the United States needs a civil war to set things right.” In 2023, fewer respondents considered violence to be usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives [25.3% (95% CI 24.7%, 26.5%), a 6.8% decrease]. However, more respondents thought it very/extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they consider political violence justified, “I will be armed with a gun” [9.0% (95% CI 8.3%, 9.8%), a 2.2% increase] and “I will shoot someone with a gun” [1.8% (95% CI 1.4%, 2.2%), a 0.6% increase]. Among respondents who considered violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 political objective, about 1 in 20 also thought it very/extremely likely that they would threaten someone with a gun (5.4%, 95% CI 4.0%, 7.0%) or shoot someone (5.7%, 95% CI 4.3%, 7.1%) to advance such an objective. Conclusions: In this cohort, support for political violence declined from 2022 to 2023, but predictions of firearm use in political violence increased. These findings can help guide prevention efforts, which are urgently needed. |
| Date: | 2024–01–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wy5ez_v1 |
| By: | Plantinga, Paul; Dlamini, Nonkululeko; Gordon, Tanja |
| Abstract: | Whilst there are many new opportunities for using emerging technology to enhance citizen engagement with government decision-making, there are still challenges using existing technologies and many failed initiatives, especially in Africa. These failures are often put down to a mismatch in culture and values, between the local African context and technologies developed in other parts of the world, and between the agile openness of digital initiatives and the bureaucratic practices of public officials. Unfortunately, little is known about the specific roles public officials do or could play in e-participation implementation, how these roles are shaped by distinctive values, and the extent to which these values may conflict or, possibly, complement each other. This paper presents results from a desktop analysis of e-participation projects, largely from the African continent, and shows how a diversity of public official roles and values would be necessary to support the realisation of e-participation outcomes. From legal specialists developing guidelines to comply with personal data protection legislation, to communications officials learning how to moderate social media conversations and technology developers exploring new ways of verifying online identity. |
| Date: | 2024–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cbwx5_v1 |
| By: | Carletto, Calogero; Letta, Marco; Montalbano, Pierluigi; Paolantonio, Adriana; Zezza, Alberto |
| Abstract: | Reliable microeconomic data to understand the climate-migration nexus are virtually nonexistent. Nationally representative multitopic household surveys are rarely, if ever, explicitly designed for studying migration issues. Despite this limitation, most countries have no alternatives to the use of household surveys when it comes to analyzing complex multidimensional phenomena such as the interrelationship between climate change and migration. This paper offers a critical reflection on current challenges faced by multi-topic household surveys in responding to this need, but also, more importantly, on the many opportunities embedded in their use. Specifically, using the Living Standards Measurement Study as a case study, a conceptual framework, practical empirical guidance, and a methodological agenda are proposed to address data gaps and contribute to a more solid understanding of the climate-migration nexus. |
| Date: | 2023–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10613 |
| By: | Motta, Matt (Boston University School of Public Health); Callaghan, Timothy; Ross, Jennifer; Padmanabhan, Medini; Gargano, Lisa; Bowman, Sarah; Yokum, David Vincent (North Carolina) |
| Abstract: | Many efforts have been made to study both the prevalence of and public concern about "Long COVID". Fewer, however, have asked what the public knows and/or purports to know about Long COVID. This is an important oversight, as low knowledge and/or "meta-ignorance" (the Dunning Kruger Effect or DKE) concerning Long COVID might undermine public willingness to take action to protect themselves and others from endemic COVID-19. In a nationally representative survey of US adults, we find that objective levels of public knowledge about Long COVID are quite low. We also detect a prevalent DKE, such that greater than one fifth of respondents express high confidence in their perceived Long COVID knowledge, despite exhibiting lower than average objective knowledge. Unfortunately, we find that the expression of DKE -- irrespective of partisan identity -- is associated with a series of deleterious public health and health policy outcomes, including: opposition to workplace COVID-19 vaccine mandates, annual COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, and an increased likelihood of being sick with Long COVID. We conclude by offering a data-driven discussion of both the promises and potential limitations of health communication efforts to provide the public with basic facts about the causes and consequences of Long COVID. |
| Date: | 2024–05–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hzgwm_v1 |
| By: | Barba Navaretti, Giorgio; Bugamelli, Matteo; Forlani, Emanuele; Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P. |
| Abstract: | Understanding producers' selection into exporting and its consequences for micro-founded gravity estimation calls for an in-depth analysis of the interplay between aggregate exports and the distribution of producers' productivity. Yet, knowledge about such interplay is still rather limited from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint. We supplement this knowledge by studying how different moments of the distribution of producers' productivity affect the trade elasticity, and in turn how shocks that alter those moments in different ways may have different impacts on aggregate exports. We first show that, to obtain an unbiased measure of that elasticity, gravity regressions have to account not only for the share of producers that export, but also for their productivity premium relative to all producers. This is particularly important when the share is small and the premium is large, that is, when aggregate exports are driven by few overperforming 'superstar exporters'. We then assess how aggregate exports react to shocks entailing the same change in the first moment of the distribution of producers' productivity, but different changes in its higher moments. Our empirical results confirm that taking into full consideration the productivity premium of exporters and the occurrence of 'superstar exporters' is crucial to correctly explain and predict the response of aggregate exports to different productivity shocks. |
| Keywords: | trade flows; superstar exporters |
| JEL: | F12 F14 F17 |
| Date: | 2024–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126754 |
| By: | Barnett, Carolyn Louise |
| Abstract: | To what extent do attitudes and perceived norms around household roles hinder the emergence of more gender-equal distributions of labor in Morocco Moroccan women undertake a disproportionate share of unpaid household and care labor and participate in the labor force at low rates. Yet everyday practices are shifting, and normative expectations may be as well. From an online survey of predominantly urban, employed Moroccans, this paper finds that respondents aspire for men to be equal contributors in care tasks. Yet, unpaid labor burdens remain highly unequal, respondents disfavor men taking primary responsibility for cooking or cleaning, and women's share of household labor correlates with perceptions of what men prefer more than with individuals' actual preferences. Results from a conjoint survey experiment measuring preferences around employment and the household division of labor confirm respondents' interest in more egalitarian relations in principle, but also suggest that strong preferences for a male breadwinner family model will continue to drive an unequal distribution of labor at home. |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10694 |
| By: | Tommaso Sonno; Davide Zufacchi |
| Abstract: | Large-scale land acquisitions are a key component of agricultural foreign direct investment. In 2023 alone, nearly 6% of the world's arable land was acquired globally. This paper examines their impact on agricultural production, environmental outcomes, and local communities. To identify these effects, we exploit an exogenous increase in palm oil land acquisitions driven by the Ebola epidemic in Liberia. We find a 54% growth in production, primarily due to an expansion in cultivated hectares rather than large improvements in land productivity, accompanied by a significant rise in palm oil exports. Our results indicate that LSLAs have altered the equilibrium of palm oil production, fuelling the adoption of an extensive monoculture system oriented toward international markets. The expansion of this tradable industry generated modest positive effects on the local economy and spurred a process of structural transformation. Women transitioned from agriculture to service and sales jobs, while men shifted into manual labour positions. However, all of this came at a cost: increased deforestation, air pollution, and a decline in local land ownership. |
| Keywords: | large-scale land acquisitions, agricultural production, structural transformation |
| Date: | 2025–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2075 |
| By: | Ishak, Phoebe Saad Wasfy; Aghajanian, Alia Jane; Ghorpade, Yashodhan |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to an important agenda by studying how female participation in household decision making has been affected by the ongoing civil conflict in the Republic of Yemen in areas under the control of the Internationally Recognized Government. The preliminary results find an increase in women’s participation in decision making since the start of the conflict. Using a difference-in-difference approach that controls for individual and household characteristics, the analysis finds that this result is driven by households living in districts with medium intensity conflict as compared to low intensity conflict. This result holds up to a series of robustness checks and is explained by changes in household composition, whereby men are more likely to leave the household in conflict affected districts, leaving women in charge of household decisions. |
| Date: | 2023–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10618 |
| By: | Heitlinger, Lea |
| Abstract: | Technologies based on Artificial Intelligence (AI), such as service robots, are increasingly penetrating multiple areas of our lives: From services to office areas, they are integrated in a variety of functions and forms. In the service area, service robots are an important interface to customers and work alongside human employees. In offices, robots provide assistant services to their human colleagues. These developments call for guidance on how to effectively integrate service robots for successful human-robot interaction in these contexts. This dissertation aims to provide nuanced insights into service robot implementation, depending on the level and perspective of interaction. It thus sheds light on individual and team-level interactions between humans and robots, covering the external, i.e., customer perspective, and internal employee perspective on these service robots. With this differentiation, this work advances knowledge and theoretical concepts for each area and also provides concrete managerial guidance. The dissertation contains three research studies dedicated to specific levels and perspectives of human-robot interaction. Additionally, service and office contexts are investigated. Research study 1 focusses on individual interactions between human and robotic employees from an external customer perspective in a frontline service environment. Relying on social identity theory and the black sheep effect, study 1 shows that customers upgrade norm-compliant behaviors by human employees more than similar behaviors by service robots. Additionally, they downgrade norm-violating service behaviors more when interacting with a human service employee compared to a service robot. This effect also occurs in service failures with greater anger and frustration towards human service employees. As an important mechanism to the black sheep effect, this work shows that customers assign human service employees to a social ingroup, while service robots represent the social outgroup. This study gives theory-based guidance for the deployment of service robots in customer-service situations and effective division of labor with human service employees. Research study 2 addresses service robot implementation into an office context from an internal employee perspective. Again, individual interactions are the focus of the study. Based on a typology approach, distinct robot user types are established through interviews. These types and related patterns are then investigated in an online study providing insights on performance-related and social relations for each type. By utilizing these types, firms can tailor service robot implementation to their employees’ needs with targeted but economical strategies. Going beyond individual level interactions with service robots, research study 3 sheds light on an emerging phenomenon in services and office contexts, human-robot teams (HRTs.). In these teams, robotic and human capabilities can be combined to achieve organizational goals. The study combines the internal employee perspective and the external customer perspective and examines both response types to service robots in teams with an empirics-first mixed-methods approach. A first online study establishes important effects of robot design and acceptance. Specifically, android robotic team assistants are preferred over humanoid ones by employees. Relying on the expectation-disconfirmation paradigm and robot role theory, the study shows that the acceptance of the service robot is highest with high robot role expectations and corresponding high levels of experiences. A longitudinal pre-study shows that proactively behaving service robots are not well received. Finally, longitudinal team performance patterns reveal a smaller drop in performance for later team performance stages for HRTs than for a human-only team. Customers further rate the HRTs’ project outcomes higher. Notably, this study creates a comprehensive picture of HRTs and goes beyond single touch-points by providing a longitudinal perspective to these teams of the future. In summary, this work advances scientific research on human-robot interaction by shedding light on different levels of interaction and by covering multiple perspectives and areas. Besides providing new insights for each area, this dissertation transfers and extends important theories, approaches and models to robotics research with a variety of methods and instruments to create a holistic understanding. The goal is to pave the way for a successful introduction of service robots into our lives. |
| Date: | 2025–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:153158 |
| By: | Kobak, Dmitry; Bessudnov, Alexey; Ershov, Alexander; Mikhailova, Tatiana; Raksha, Alexei |
| Abstract: | In this research note, we used excess deaths among young males to estimate the number of Russian fatalities in the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022--23. We based our calculations on the official mortality statistics, split by age and gender. To separate excess deaths due to war from those due to Covid-19, we relied on the ratio of male to female deaths, and extrapolated the 2015--19 trend to get the baseline value for 2022--23. We found noticeable excess male mortality in all age groups between 15 and 49, with 58, 500±2, 500 excess male deaths in 2022--23 (20, 600±1, 400 in 2022 and 37, 900±1, 500 in 2023). These estimates were obtained after excluding all HIV deaths that showed complex dynamics unrelated to the war. Depending on the modelling assumptions, the estimated number of deaths over the two years varied from about 46, 600 to about 64, 100, with 58, 500 corresponding to our preferred model. Our estimate should be treated as a lower bound on the true number of deaths as the data do not include either the Russian military personnel missing in action and not officially declared dead, or the deaths registered in the Ukrainian territories annexed in 2022. |
| Date: | 2023–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xcrme_v1 |
| By: | Assaf Ichilov (6th Granados St., 90885 Jerusalem - Gaia College, Department of Management, UAM - Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu = Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań) |
| Abstract: | This literature review explores integrating peace state concepts with the Pygmalion effect in workplace settings, examining how mental state management influences expectation-driven performance. While extensive research has documented how managerial expectations shape employee performance through the Pygmalion effect, less attention has been paid to the role of mental states in this dynamic. Through a systematic review of psychology, organizational behavior, and neuroscience literature, this paper examines how a peace state -characterized by reduced stress, enhanced cognitive clarity, and emotional regulation -may mediate the relationship between expectations and performance. The review synthesizes traditional Pygmalion effect study findings with emerging research on mental state management, neuroplasticity, and workplace performance. Key findings suggest that a peace state may enhance both the setting and reception of expectations, potentially amplifying the Pygmalion effect's impact on performance. Managers maintaining peace state appear better equipped to communicate authentic expectations, while employees in peace state demonstrate enhanced capacity to internalize and act upon these expectations. This integration offers new perspectives on sustainable performance enhancement in organizational settings, suggesting that combining mental state management with expectation setting may yield superior outcomes compared to traditional approaches alone. The paper concludes by identifying research gaps and proposing future directions for empirical investigation of this integrated framework. |
| Keywords: | Peace State Pygmalion Effect Mental States Team behavior Expectation-driven Performance Workplace Settings, Peace State, Pygmalion Effect, Mental States, Team behavior, Expectation-driven Performance, Workplace Settings |
| Date: | 2025–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04918095 |