|
on Investment |
| By: | Redmond, Paul (ESRI, Dublin); McGuinness, Seamus (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Kelly, Elish (ESRI, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Ireland is the only country in Europe with a direct question in its Labour Force Survey to identify minimum wage employees. By combining this with the longitudinal component of the Labour Force Survey, we examine the labour market transitions of minimum wage employees over a period of up to five quarters. After one quarter, just over half of minimum wage employees are still on minimum wage while 28 percent have moved to higher pay. After one year, almost half have moved to higher pay, with just one-third remaining on minimum wage. Employees that move to higher pay are more likely to change jobs compared to those that stay on minimum wage. Despite this, the majority (almost 90 percent) of minimum wage employees that transition to higher pay do so with the same employer. We employ a dynamic random effects probit model to estimate the degree of genuine state dependence of minimum wage employment. While there is some degree of true state dependence, much of the persistence in minimum wage employment is due to observed and unobserved heterogeneity, whereby minimum wage employees possess characteristics that result in them entering, and staying on, minimum wage. Our results also indicate that minimum wage employees are about five times more likely than higher paid employees to transition into economic inactivity. However, the majority of these are young people in education, and as such may not be overly concerning to policymakers. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, state dependence, labour market dynamics |
| JEL: | J31 J62 J20 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17598 |
| By: | David Neumark; Jyotsana Kala |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive analysis of the effects of minimum wages on blacks, and on the relative impacts on blacks vs. whites. We study not only teenagers – the focus of much of the minimum wage-employment literature – but also other low-skill groups. We focus primarily on employment, which has been the prime concern with the minimum wage research literature. We find evidence that job loss effects from higher minimum wages are much more evident for blacks, and in contrast not very detectable for whites, and are often large enough to generate adverse effects on earnings. We supplement this work with additional analysis that distinguishes between effects of an individual’s race and the race composition of where they live. The extensive residential segregation by race in the United States raises the question of whether the more adverse effects of minimum wages on blacks are attributable to more adverse effects on black individuals, or more adverse effects on neighborhoods with large black populations. We find relatively little evidence of heterogeneity in effects across areas defined by the share black among residents. But the large disemployment effects for blacks coupled with strong residential segregation imply that that adverse effects of minimum wages are concentrated in areas with high concentrations of blacks. |
| JEL: | J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33167 |
| By: | Ferdaous Rezgui (ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research); Laure Hossard (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Louise Blanc (Department of Agricultural and Forest Sciences and Engineering, University of Lleida – AGROTECNIO-CERCA Center, Av. Rovira Roure 191, Lleida); Daniel Plaza-Bonilla (Department of Agricultural and Forest Sciences and Engineering, University of Lleida – AGROTECNIO-CERCA Center, Av. Rovira Roure 191, Lleida); Jorge Lampurlanés (Department of Agricultural and Forest Sciences and Engineering, University of Lleida – AGROTECNIO-CERCA Center, Av. Rovira Roure 191, Lleida); Christos Dordas (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki); Paschalis Papakaloudis (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki); Andreas Michalitsis (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki); Fatima Lambarraa-Lehnhardt (ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research); Moritz Reckling (ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research) |
| Abstract: | The quest for agricultural productivity has certainly increased the production, but it has come at the cost of natural resources (Egidi et al., 2022).To promote higher ecosystem services, diversifying rotations with legumes has been proposed as a viable alternative (Reckling et al., 2023). Involving local actors when designing and evaluating those alternatives can enhance their transferability and likelihood of implementation (Chopin et al., 2021). During a first workshop with local stakeholders, diversification options with grain legumes for cereal-based systems were co-designed (Hossard et al., 2024) in Greece and Spain. Using a set of agri-environmental, social and economic indicators, we assessed the performance of designed options in comparison to continuous cereal cropping. During a second workshop, stakeholders were presented with the assessment results and asked to rate i) the importance of the assessment indicators and ii) the performance of the assessed systems. In this study, we present the results of the stakeholder's ratings using an Importance-Performance matrix (IPM) that measures the satisfaction of stakeholders towards the assessed farming systems (with and without legumes) based on i) the importance of the indicators (x-axis) and ii) the agri-environmental, social and economic performance (y-axis) (Phadermrod et al., 2019). Despite the importance of economic indicators to Greek and Spanish stakeholders, they rated the economic performance of farming systems (with and without legume rotations) as low. This illustrates how important it is for stakeholders to consider the economic aspect, but legume diversification still isn't improving economic performance. In contrast, agri-environmental indicators performed largely better but are of low significance to stakeholders. Similarly, stakeholders generally placed little importance on social indicators despite rating them as highly performing. Thus, performing better in social or environmental aspects may not be sufficient to justify diversification with legumes as long as it fails to generate profitable returns. |
| Keywords: | diversification, legume, co-design, multi-criteria assessment, stakeholders |
| Date: | 2024–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04805845 |
| By: | Marc Ivaldi (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Connie Lee (TSE-R - TSE-R Toulouse School of Economics – Recherche - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Is it the Advent of Fairness ? |
| Keywords: | European Union, United States of America, China, General antitrust, Competition policy, Consumer welfare, Consumer protection, All business sectors |
| Date: | 2024–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04823071 |
| By: | Mouad Lamrabet (UH2MC - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | Today, territories are more than ever called upon to mobilize their intelligence to tackle the complex challenges related to their development. In Morocco, the issue of territorial intelligence remains underexplored, both scientifically and practically. In 2023, the report of the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council (CESE) highlighted the alarming state of territorial development and identified numerous stagnations, which are, in fact, linked to a deficit in the territorial intelligence of actors. Hence, the continued relevance of this issue. However, the present work explores a novel problematic: How can the global intelligence of a territory be measured to better guide its development? In this context, we have innovated a tool that allows measuring the global intelligence of the territory. We have named it: "The Mouad Quotient." Practically, the Mouad Quotient allows for the simultaneous and symmetrical measurement of territorial intelligence and anti-territorial intelligence, thus providing a score of the preponderance of one or the other of these two phenomena. Following a theoretical-mathematical modeling methodology, the process of designing the Mouad Quotient is as follows: Conceptual framework, application prerequisites, index construction, weighting, scaling, normalization, and interpretation. As a last resort, the Mouad Quotient is formalized as follows: [α (ID + II) + β (IM + ICOM + IK)] × 1.17. |
| Abstract: | Aujourd'hui, les territoires sont appelés plus que jamais à mobiliser leurs intelligences pour relever les défis complexes liés à leur développement. Au Maroc, la problématique de l'intelligence territoriale reste peu abordée, tant au niveau scientifique qu'au niveau pratique. En 2023, le rapport du Conseil Économique, Social et Environnemental (CESE) a souligné l'état inquiétant du développement territorial et identifié une multitude d'enlisements liés, en réalité, à un déficit d'intelligence territoriale des acteurs. D'où l'actualité, comme toujours, de cette problématique. Cependant, leprésent travail explore une problématique inédite : Comment peut-on mesurer l'intelligence globale du territoire afin de mieux piloter son développement ? Dans ce sens, nous avons innové un outil qui permet de mesurer l'intelligence globale du territoire. Nous l'avons baptisé : « Le Quotient de Mouad ». Pratiquement, le Quotient de Mouad permet de mesurer simultanément et de manière symétrique l'intelligence territoriale et l'intelligence anti-territoriale, et ainsi d'obtenir un score de prépondérance de l'un ou l'autre de ces deux phénomènes. Suivant une méthodologie de modélisation théorico mathématique, le processus de conception du Quotient de Mouad est le suivant : Cadre conceptuel, préalables d'application, construction d'indices, pondération, échelonnage, normalisation et interprétation. En dernier ressort, le Quotient de Mouad est formalisé comme suit: [α (ID+ II) + β (IM+ ICOM+ IK)] × 1.17 |
| Keywords: | Mouad Quotient, Territorial intelligence, anti-territorial intelligence, preponderance, Territorial development, Scoping Review PRISMA-ScR |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04831759 |
| By: | Anup Malani; Ari Jacob |
| Abstract: | The world has experienced a dramatic decline in total fertility rate (TFR) since the Industrial Revolution. Yet the consequences of this decline flow not merely from a reduction in births, but from a reduction in the number of surviving children. We propose a new measure of the number of surviving children per female, which we call the effective fertility rate (EFR). EFR can be approximated as the product of TFR and the probability of survival. Moreover, TFR changes can be decomposed into changes that preserve EFR and those that change EFR. We specialized EFR to measure the number of daughters that survive to reproduce (reproductive EFR) and the number children that survive to become workers (labor EFR). We use three data sets to shed light on EFR over time across locations. First, we use data from 165 countries between 1950-2019 to show that one-third of the global decline in TFR during this period did not change labor EFR, suggesting that a substantial portion of fertility decline merely compensated for higher survival rates. Focusing on the change in labor EFR, at least 40% of variation cannot be explained by economic factors such as income, prices, education levels, structural transformation, an urbanization, leaving room for explanations like cultural change. Second, using historical demographic data on European countries since 1750, we find that there was dramatic fluctuation in labor EFR in Europe around each of the World Wars, a phenomenon that is distinct from the demographic transition. However, prior to that fluctuation, EFRs were remarkably constant, even as European countries were undergoing demographic transitions. Indeed, even when EFRs fell below 2 after 1975, we find that EFRs remained stable rather than continuing to decline. Third, data from the US since 1800 reveal that, despite great differences in mortality rates, Black and White populations have remarkably similar numbers of surviving children over time. |
| JEL: | J1 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33175 |
| By: | Andrea Caria |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal impact of Italy’s transition from analog to digital terrestrial television on fertility rates, exploiting the staggered rollout between 2008 and 2012 as a natural experiment. Employing a difference-in-differences analysis and a doubly robust estimator, I find a statistically significant negative effect of digital terrestrial television adoption on fertility, particularly pronounced in urban, progressive areas characterized by low pre-treatment fertility, fewer young couples with children, higher population density, and taxpayers. While a simple time substitution effect (between television viewing and reproductive activities) is unlikely to be the primary driver, evidence suggests that digital terrestrial television facilitated more individualized viewing experiences through increased household television ownership. The findings point to a significant shift in gender roles following digital terrestrial television adoption: I observe an increase in female labor force participation and a more equitable division of domestic work, with men undertaking a larger share of lighter household tasks. |
| Keywords: | reproductive decisions, digital terrestrial television, media influence, difference-in-differences analysis |
| JEL: | J13 J16 L82 C23 D83 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11591 |
| By: | Marc Salesina (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine, IAE Nancy - IAE Nancy School of Management - UL - Université de Lorraine); Valentin Schmitt (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine, IAE Nancy - IAE Nancy School of Management - UL - Université de Lorraine); Anne Stévenot (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine, IAE Nancy - IAE Nancy School of Management - UL - Université de Lorraine) |
| Abstract: | Using a novel dataset built from the REPONSE 2017 and the FEAS databases, this article highlights the links between employee ownership, HRM practices and industrial relations in French listed companies. We explore the effects of employee ownership intensity (proportion of capital held) and extent (proportion of employee shareholders), as well as the effects of their interaction. Our results suggest contrasting governance logics depending on whether we consider the intensity or the extent of employee ownership, between a shareholder approach on the one hand and a partnership approach on the other. |
| Abstract: | À l'aide d'un jeu de données inédit construit à partir de l'enquête REPONSE 2017 et de la base de la FEAS, cet article met en évidence les liens entre actionnariat salarié, pratiques de GRH et relations professionnelles dans les entreprises cotées françaises. Nous explorons les effets de l'intensité de l'actionnariat salarié (proportion du capital détenue au titre de l'actionnariat) et de son étendue (proportion de salariés actionnaires ou taux de démocratisation), ainsi que l'interaction entre ces deux dimensions. Nos résultats mettent notamment en évidence des logiques de gouvernance contrastées selon que l'on considère l'intensité (proportion du capital détenu) ou l'étendue (proportion de salariés actionnaires) de l'AS, entre approches actionnariale d'une part et partenariale de l'autre. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04777593 |
| By: | Simmons, Richard; Weed, Caleb; Rodgers, Michael |
| Abstract: | The EVALUATE (Electric Vehicle Assessment and Leveraging of Unified models toward AbatemenT of Emissions) project (Phases I and II) develops a rigorous methodology involving a high-fidelity system of systems model (i.e., vehicle powertrain, EV charging profiles and grid dispatch datasets) for the purpose of forecasting the emissions outputs of a class of vehicles and use cases. Phase I findings explored urban trips by households that operate light duty vehicles (LDVs) for daily personal use. Phase II, presented here, focuses on a series of targeted case studies that extend prior work from LDVs operated by individuals to service-oriented vehicles operated by small and medium businesses. Vehicles used in the present study are representative of public service fleets including the following: pickup trucks, vans, Medium Duty (MD) delivery vehicles, and refuse trucks. In one of the study’s simulations for a MD use case where a specific marginal grid generating resource is identified on an hourly basis as the grid’s means of supplying a particular EV charging event, estimated CO2 emissions could be as much as 42% lower than a conventional gasoline vehicle, or as much as 24% higher than a conventional gasoline vehicle. This large variance is purely a function of when and how quickly the vehicle is recharged, and upstream grid factors. This study reveals key insights: (1) Higher temporal resolution is important to develop more accurate estimates of EV CO2 emissions. Along with this, EV charge management is imperative for all use cases, and has profound implications on infrastructure and emissions; (2) Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) often performed as well as EVs in contemporary simulations on the basis of emissions benefits, suggesting that consideration of an array of vehicle technologies is important; (3) There is a growing need to focus on higher rate EV charging applications (e.g., DCFC), and related implications on grid demands and energy storage, as proxied by large vehicle batteries; and (4) The trend toward increasing electrification of the transportation sector will continue in conjunction with electrification across other sectors (e.g., buildings, data centers, industry). As such, associated cross-sector planning and study of concomitant emissions must be considered in context of other grid trends. Primary contributions of this effort are the development of new methodologies, integration of sub-system models and independent data sources, and decision support tools that estimate the environmental impacts of vehicle electrification. The study’s methodologies and use cases can enhance understanding and scale-up in additional EV-grid applications, sectors and regions. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicles, low carbon transportation, emissions, CO2, EV charging, marginal emissions, electric grid |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0js485bz |
| By: | Jeffrey P. Cohen; Violeta A. Gutkowski |
| Abstract: | Tornados’ impacts on real asset prices have not been extensively explored in a causal analysis framework. We estimate the effects of damage from a major tornado in Little Rock, AR on prices of nearby non-damaged residential real assets. We study how a typical home’s proximity to damaged properties might have led to a discount in the price of the subject property due to blight in the neighborhood. We focus on homes that sold between January 2022 and August 2024, and compare the effects of the March 31, 2023 tornado on sale prices for homes near versus far from damaged houses. For homes within 250 meters from a tornado-damaged home, our difference-in-differences estimates imply an average discount of 29 to 35 percent for all home sales, relative to those homes further away. These effects attenuate with greater distance from the damage points. The presence of additional damaged homes nearby lead to a significant house price discount in the range of 8 percent (within 250m) to 2 percent (within 500m). There is no additional significant discount for homes in lower-income Census block groups, implying homeowners who live in lower income neighborhoods do not perceive different real asset price effects of nearby tornado damage than other homeowners. |
| Keywords: | residential real asset prices; tornadoes; inequality |
| JEL: | R0 |
| Date: | 2024–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:99461 |
| By: | Bach, Nicoline Josephine (VIVE - The Danish Centre for Social Science Research); Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz (Aarhus University); Smith, Nina (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between the timing of childbirth and the motherhood penalty among high-skilled Danish women. Earlier studies typically find that delaying first childbirth increases female earnings. However, postponing the first birth may also have negative fertility consequences, as it often leads to greater difficulties in conceiving. If women have their first childbirth early, before entering the labor market, this can potentially result in both positive and negative effects on their labor market outcomes. Positive effects may arise if student-mothers signal to employers that they will take up less future maternity and parental leave once they enter the labor market. Negative effects may occur if student-mothers face a delayed entry into the labor market or if they signal a preference for higher fertility compared to students without children. Using a sibling fixed effects design, we find that student-mothers have higher drop-out rates than non-student-mothers at both universities and university colleges. However, for those women completing their education, student-mothers from university colleges experience a considerably higher growth rate in earnings after labor market entry compared to non-student-mothers, and by the age of 40, they have surpassed non-student-mothers in earnings. In contrast, university student-mothers do not fully catch up with non-student-mothers by age 40, although they, on average, enter the labor market at a higher earnings level compared to non-student-mothers. |
| Keywords: | wage differentials, female wages, parental leave, signaling, motherhood penalty |
| JEL: | J13 J31 D82 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17603 |
| By: | Arman Abgaryan; Utkarsh Sharma |
| Abstract: | IntraLayer presents an innovative framework that enables comprehensive interconnectivity in digital finance. The proposed framework comprises a core underlying infrastructure and an overarching strategy to create a pioneering "platform of platforms", serving as an algorithmic fiduciary. By design, this infrastructure optimises transactional efficiency for a broad spectrum of agents, thereby facilitating the sustainable creation of intrinsic economic value. Complementing the infrastructure, our forthcoming work will present an overarching adaptive fiscal policy to optimise IntraLayer's resources, striking a balance between sustaining the network and enhancing the proposal herein. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.07348 |
| By: | Marco Molinari; Victor Shao; Vladimir Tregubiak; Abhimanyu Pandey; Mateusz Mikolajczak; Sebastian Kuznetsov Ryder Torres Pereira |
| Abstract: | Determining company similarity is a vital task in finance, underpinning hedging, risk management, portfolio diversification, and more. Practitioners often rely on sector and industry classifications to gauge similarity, such as SIC-codes and GICS-codes - the former being used by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the latter widely used by the investment community. Since these classifications can lack granularity and often need to be updated, using clusters of embeddings of company descriptions has been proposed as a potential alternative, but the lack of interpretability in token embeddings poses a significant barrier to adoption in high-stakes contexts. Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have shown promise in enhancing the interpretability of Large Language Models (LLMs) by decomposing LLM activations into interpretable features. We apply SAEs to company descriptions, obtaining meaningful clusters of equities in the process. We benchmark SAE features against SIC-codes, Major Group codes, and Embeddings. Our results demonstrate that SAE features not only replicate but often surpass sector classifications and embeddings in capturing fundamental company characteristics. This is evidenced by their superior performance in correlating monthly returns - a proxy for similarity - and generating higher Sharpe ratio co-integration strategies, which underscores deeper fundamental similarities among companies. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.02605 |
| By: | Bora Kim |
| Abstract: | In estimating spillover effects under network interference, practitioners often use linear regression with either the number or fraction of treated neighbors as regressors. An often overlooked fact is that the latter is undefined for units without neighbors (``isolated nodes"). The common practice is to impute this fraction as zero for isolated nodes. This paper shows that such practice introduces bias through theoretical derivations and simulations. Causal interpretations of the commonly used spillover regression coefficients are also provided. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.05919 |
| By: | Sieglen, Georg (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Carl, Birgit (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Die Studie gibt einen Überblick über die aktuelle Beschäftigungssituation in den Berufen der Kinderbetreuung und deren Entwicklung seit 2013 in Nordrhein-Westfalen. Daran anschließend wird anhand von Analysen zur Verweil-, zur Verbleibsdauer und zur Erwerbsbiographie untersucht, welcher Zusammenhang sich zwischen ausgewählten Merkmalen und der Verweildauer im Beruf ergibt und wie sich der Erwerbsverlauf von Personen, die eine erste Beschäftigung in den Berufen der Kinderbetreuung zwischen den Jahren 2002–2012 aufgenommen haben, entwickelte. Die sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung in den Berufen der Kinderbetreuung ist in den letzten Jahren deutschlandweit mit ca. 50 Prozent überdurchschnittlich gestiegen. In Nordrhein-Westfalen sogar um 54 Prozent, was einem Zuwachs von knapp 70.350 Personen entspricht. Mit fast 94 Prozent arbeiten fast ausschließlich Frauen in diesen Berufen. Knapp die Hälfte aller sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten arbeitete im Juni 2023 in einem Teilzeit-Beschäftigungsverhältnis. Im Vergleich zur Gesamtwirtschaft in Nordrhein-Westfalen sind die Beschäftigten im Schnitt deutlich jünger und der Anteil von Beschäftigten mit ausländischer Staatsangehörigkeit geringer. Das mittlere Entgelt entwickelte sich in den letzten zehn Jahren zwar überdurchschnittlich, bleibt aber noch 67 € pro Monat unter dem aller Beschäftigten im Bundesland (Stand: Dezember 2023). Bezogen auf Helfer und Fachkräfte verdienen Beschäftigte in den Berufen der Kinderbetreuung mittlerweile aber sogar etwas mehr als der jeweilige Durchschnitt aller Beschäftigten mit diesen Anforderungsniveaus. Unsere Analysen zur Verweildauer zeigen, dass vor allem das Alter, die Qualifikation und die Arbeitszeit die deutlichsten Einflüsse auf die individuelle Verweildauer im Beruf nehmen. Darüber hinaus zeigt sich gegenüber dem Beginn des Beobachtungszeitraums 2002 in den letzten Jahren eine Zunahme der Verweildauern. Die erwerbsbiografischen Analysen zeigen, dass ein Großteil der Erzieher*innen ihrem Beruf auch treu bleiben. Neben den 18 Prozent, die ohne Unterbrechungen durchgehend als Erzieher*in arbeiten, kehren zudem knapp 52 Prozent nach einer Unterbrechung in ihren Beruf zurück. Darüber hinaus gibt es ausgeprägte Unterschiede zwischen den Geschlechtern. Männer sind nicht nur in ihrer Anzahl deutlich unterrepräsentiert, sondern haben auch im Schnitt kürzere Dauern und wechseln deutlich häufiger den Beruf, ohne zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt zurückkehren. Im Untersuchungszeitraum von 2002 bis 2022 nahm insgesamt der Anteil von Erzieher*innen leicht ab, die in einem Zeitraum von 10 Jahren in ihrem Beruf tätig blieben oder nach einer Unterbrechung wieder dorthin zurückkehrten und der Anteil derer leicht zu, die in einen anderen Beruf wechselten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Nordrhein-Westfalen ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; beruflicher Verbleib ; Berufstreue ; Berufsverlauf ; Beschäftigungsdauer ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Erzieher ; geschlechtsspezifische Faktoren ; Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien ; Kinderbetreuung ; Kindergarten ; Kindertagesstätte ; Lohnhöhe ; Personalersatzbedarf ; 2000-2023 |
| Date: | 2025–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabrnr:202401 |
| By: | Laura Chioda; Paul Gertler; Sean Higgins; Paolina C. Medina |
| Abstract: | Despite the promise of FinTech lending to expand access to credit to populations without a formal credit history, FinTech lenders primarily lend to applicants with a formal credit history and rely on conventional credit bureau scores as an input to their algorithms. Using data from a large FinTech lender in Mexico, we show that alternative data from digital transactions through a delivery app are effective at predicting creditworthiness for borrowers with no credit history. We also show that segmenting our machine learning model by gender can improve credit allocation fairness without a substantive effect on the model’s predictive performance. |
| JEL: | G23 G5 O16 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33208 |
| By: | Felipe de Bolle; Egemen Kolemen |
| Abstract: | With the increasing urgency of climate change's impacts and limited success in reducing emissions, "geoengineering, " or the artificial manipulation of the climate to reduce warming rates, has been proposed as an alternative short-term solution. Options range from taking carbon out of the atmosphere through carbon sinks and brightening clouds to increasing the planet's albedo through the release of reflective particles into the atmosphere. While still controversial, geoengineering has been proposed by some as a promising and low-cost way of combating climate change. In particular, so-called 'moderate' geoengineering is claimed to be achievable with few potential side effects or other ramifications. However, this paper argues that the effect of moderate geoengineering can easily be nullified by 'counter-geoengineering, ' and any impactful geoengineering would require a global governance framework to prevent countries which benefit from warming temperatures from deploying counter-geoengineering. In this paper, we take Russia as an example due to its potential interest in counteracting geoengineering and its significant ability to release a great amount of methane, a viable counter-geoengineering pathway in the short term. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.03598 |
| By: | Annie Ouin (DYNAFOR - Dynamiques et écologie des paysages agriforestiers - ENSAT - École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - INP - PURPAN - Ecole d'Ingénieurs de Purpan - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Aude Vialatte (DYNAFOR - Dynamiques et écologie des paysages agriforestiers - ENSAT - École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - INP - PURPAN - Ecole d'Ingénieurs de Purpan - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Keywords: | Paysage, agroécologie, Solutions fondées sur la Nature, SfN, Gascogne |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04828816 |
| By: | Ferrer, Ana (University of Waterloo); Gonzalez, Francisco M. (University of Waterloo); Nesterova, Iuliia (University of Waterloo) |
| Abstract: | We document a significant effect of visible inequality on household spending in the United States from 2010 to 2018, but we do not find a comparable effect before the Great Recession. Our proposed definition of visible inequality refers to differences across households in their expenditures on highly noticeable consumption categories, including clothing, personal care, food away from home, and vehicles. Our empirical strategy exploits robust implications of a simple intertemporal model of conspicuous consumption, where a household's reference group consists of others in the same age group. Household spending is influenced by the distribution of permanent incomes within age groups, and visible inequality serves as a proxy for permanent income inequality. Our findings indicate that consumption externalities significantly distort household spending, which could have been up to 25 percent lower without these distortions. We hypothesize that low interest rates and social media contribute to these effects. |
| Keywords: | visible inequality, relative consumption, permanent income inequality |
| JEL: | D1 E21 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17604 |
| By: | Iris Kesternich; Frederic Vermeulen; Alexander Wintzeus |
| Abstract: | Flexible work schedules and telecommuting may help to improve the combination of work and family. This is arguably most important in households with (young) children. An open question is whether job flexibility can increase the well-being of the children, which depends, in part, on the time spent on child care by the parents. In couples, the allocation of time depends not only on the time and budget constraints these couples are faced with, but also on the (possibly diverging) preferences of mothers and fathers and their respective bargaining positions. To address this question, we propose a rich collective model describing the intrahousehold allocation of time and money, where children’s well-being is treated as a domestically produced good. Job flexibility may influence this domestic production process as a production shifter, capturing that flexible jobs can ease constraints on child care time parents may encounter. We apply our model to a unique sample of Dutch couples with children and find that job flexibility significantly impacts the production of children’s well-being. While the results indicate that more job flexibility for fathers may help parents to balance work and family, they imply that more job flexibility for mothers may not allow parents to achieve the same. The overall implications for children’s well-being appear negative, albeit limited. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:757479 |
| By: | David d'Acunto; Raffaele Filieri (Audencia Business School); Stefano Amato (Alta Scuola Politecnica) |
| Abstract: | Consumers are increasingly concerned about sustainable development. This study investigates the impact of environmentally-framed reviews on review rating scores considering the moderation of the reviewer's country's environmental performance. We use ordered logistic and linear regression analysis on a dataset of 45k TripAdvisor reviews of green hotels posted by reviewers from 150 countries. The findings reveal that environmentally-framed reviews are associated with higher rating scores, and the reviewer's country's environmental performance positively moderates this impact. This indicates that the environmental ranking of the reviewer's country of origin influences environmentally-framed eWOM about green and non-green services. |
| Keywords: | environmentally-framed reviews rating score electronic word-of-mouth country environmental performance environmental performance index green hotels big data analytics, environmentally-framed reviews, rating score, electronic word-of-mouth, country environmental performance, environmental performance index, green hotels, big data analytics, Environmentally-framed reviews, Rating score, Electronic word-of-mouth, Country environmental performance, Environmental performance index, Green hotels, Big data analytics |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04781820 |
| By: | Vidhi Agrawal; Eesha Khalid; Tianyu Tan; Doris Xu |
| Abstract: | This study applies machine learning to predict S&P 500 membership changes: key events that profoundly impact investor behavior and market dynamics. Quarterly data from WRDS datasets (2013 onwards) was used, incorporating features such as industry classification, financial data, market data, and corporate governance indicators. Using a Random Forest model, we achieved a test F1 score of 0.85, outperforming logistic regression and SVC models. This research not only showcases the power of machine learning for financial forecasting but also emphasizes model transparency through SHAP analysis and feature engineering. The model's real world applicability is demonstrated with predicted changes for Q3 2023, such as the addition of Uber (UBER) and the removal of SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG). By incorporating these predictions into a trading strategy i.e. buying stocks announced for addition and shorting those marked for removal, we anticipate capturing alpha and enhancing investment decision making, offering valuable insights into index dynamics |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.12539 |
| By: | Haluska, Guilherme; Summa, Ricardo; Serrano, Franklin |
| Abstract: | The paper assesses the change in direction of economic policy in Brazil during the period from 2015 to 2022 towards fiscal austerity and neoliberal reforms, allegedly with the purpose of opening space for an acceleration of growth led by private investment and net exports, through reduction in the real interest rate and a more depreciated real exchange rate. Although the interest rate has fallen and the exchange rate has indeed depreciated, exports grew less and investment has not increased. Quite the contrary, we show that these policies directly led to a reduction in the absolute size of the internal market and, as a consequence, a decrease in the business investment share. Although a failure in terms of economic growth, the new policy regime was successful in achieving its actual political objectives: the reduction of the relative size of the State in the economy and the weakening of the bargaining power of workers and the associated decrease of the wage share. |
| Keywords: | Brazilian economy, Demand-led growth, Economic policy |
| JEL: | E11 E60 O11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:308811 |
| By: | Grégory Chaudemanche (UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, NIMEC - Normandie Innovation Marché Entreprise Consommation - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Maxime Merchier (Ferme Les Champs de Bray) |
| Abstract: | PréambuleLa présente communication constitue un point d'étape dans la recherche réalisée en immersion dans l'entreprise de Maxime Merchier, agronome et paysan en Normandie (observation participante de 17 jours). Elle est une première présentation, simplifiée, de la recherche réalisée, à destination d'un public de chercheurs, d'entrepreneurs et de porteurs de projet. Elle se veut concrète, de type Témoignage commenté, et aborde la recherche avec un angle volontairement réduit. Ciblant un large public, elle évite enfin tout jargon et n'évoque aucun ancrage théorique ou méthodologique. La communication a été remaniée pour pourvoir à l'interaction orale discours -support visuel. Les éléments du support visuel attaché à la communication ont été remaniés afin d'occuper le moins de place possible. |
| Keywords: | Low-tech, Modèle d'affaires, Modèles d'affaires durables, Modèle d'affaires de l'innovation, Agroécologie, Créativité, Innovation, Elevage biologique, Elevage avicole, Elevage en plein air, Elevage innovant, Poule pondeuse, Pâturage tournant dynamique, Poulailler, Oeuf |
| Date: | 2024–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04776616 |
| By: | Stathis Devves; Angelos Alamanos; Kostas Dellis; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | Agricultural systems are becoming increasingly complex, requiring data-driven, science-supported models to address their multifaceted challenges and ensure sustainable management. In Greece, agriculture is a critical sector, contributing significantly to the economy and rural livelihoods, but it faces pressing challenges such as competing water uses, energy demands, lackluster productivity, and environmental pressures. This study presents a comprehensive multi-model assessment of Greece's Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems Nexus, evaluating agricultural production alongside its energy and water requirements and quantifying the associated air pollution impacts at the national level. For the first time to our knowledge, we connect the FABLE Calculator (the software of the FABLE Consortium), with LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform, from the Stockholm Environmental Institute), and the WaterReqGCH (a model developed by the Global Climate Hub). The FABLE Calculator provides detailed estimates of the agricultural and livestock production, which are then used by LEAP to calculate the respective energy demand and the associated greenhouse gases emissions, per fuel type used. The WaterReqGCH model uses the activity levels used in FABLE and LEAP in order to estimate the water requirements of the agricultural and livestock sector. The models run under a combination of mild-medium-extreme future scenarios until 2050 considering the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. The combination of the insights provided by this multi-model approach are useful and holistic evidence for policymaking. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Systems, Energy-Emissions, Production, FABLE, LEAP, WaterReqGCH, Global Climate Hub, Water-Energy-Food Nexus |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2514 |
| By: | Itai Arieli; Yakov Babichenko; Dima Shaiderman; Xianwen Shi |
| Abstract: | We propose a dynamic persuasion model of product adoption, where an impatient, long-lived sender commits to a dynamic disclosure policy to persuade a sequence of short-lived receivers to adopt a new product. The sender privately observes a sequence of signals, one per period, about the product quality, and therefore the sequence of her posteriors forms a discrete-time martingale. The disclosure policy specifies ex ante how the sender's information will be revealed to the receivers in each period. We introduce a new concept called ``Blackwell-preserving kernels'' and show that if the sender's belief martingale possesses these kernels, the family of optimal strategies for the sender takes an interval form; namely, in every period, the set of martingale realizations in which adoption occurs is an interval. Utilizing this, we prove that if the sender is sufficiently impatient, then under a random walk martingale, the optimal policy is fully transparent up to the moment of adoption; namely, the sender reveals all the information she privately holds in every period. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Information Design, Bayesian Persuasion, Learning |
| JEL: | D83 D82 |
| Date: | 2025–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-791 |
| By: | Gopi Shah Goda; Ithai Lurie; Priyanka S. Parikh; Chelsea Swete |
| Abstract: | Approximately $76 billion in out-of-pocket medical spending was deducted as an itemized medical deduction (IMD) in 2021, resulting in about $9 billion in federal forgone tax revenue. We use data from U.S. tax returns to examine how these tax savings are distributed across income and age, how the distributions differ from the mortgage interest deduction, and how the distributions changed with the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. While a given level of medical spending is less likely to be above the income threshold for higher-income households, itemization rates and marginal tax rates increase with income, resulting in tax savings skewed towards higher-income taxpayers: 94 percent of the tax savings accrue to those in the top half of the income distribution. The tax savings are also highly concentrated at older ages, with 42 percent accruing to those over age 65. Using rich survey data on out-of-pocket medical spending, we illustrate how the distribution of tax savings varies across policy alternatives. We find that expanding eligibility for the tax subsidy would likely reduce the concentration of tax savings at higher incomes and increase the concentration of tax benefits at older ages. |
| JEL: | H22 I18 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33157 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | World trade (excluding intra-EU-27 trade) in poultry meat amounted to 23.9 billion euros in 2021. On the export side, three quarters of this amount were accounted for by just four players: Brazil (29.5%), the USA (18.2%), the EU-27 (14.2%) and Thailand (12.7%). While these countries already occupied a central position in 2000 (with 79% of total exports), the weight of Brazil has increased significantly, unlike that of the USA and the EU-27. On the import side, the level of concentration is less clear-cut, with 41% of global flows in 2021 coming from the top four players, namely China (12.6%), Japan (12.5%), the UK (10.2%) and the EU-27 (5.6%). In 2022, the EU-27 trade balance in poultry meat reached 2.12 billion euros. EU-27 exports went mainly to the UK (58.6% of the total in 2022), followed by Switzerland (4.7%), Ghana (3.7%) and Saudi Arabia (3.7%). Imports into the EU-27 came mainly, in 2022, from Brazil (35.1%), Thailand (26.7%) and Ukraine (10.7%), the latter gaining market share in recent years. Within the EU-27, the two Member States with the largest poultry meat surpluses in 2022 were Poland (4.4 billion euros) and the Netherlands (1.3 billion euros). France, which has seen its trade balance deteriorate sharply over the last two decades, has become the EU-27 member state with the biggest deficit (-1.14 billion euros in 2022, compared with +1.15 billion euros in 2000). Imports now cover a large share of domestic consumption (42% of volumes in 2022). By mobilizing three complementary customs databases (BACI, COMEXT and French Customs), over a long period (since 2000), the aim here is to highlight the main trends in the poultry meat trade (in terms of both value and volume), at different geographical scales (world, EU-27 and France). |
| Abstract: | Le commerce mondial (hors échanges intra-Union européenne -UE-27-) de viande de volailles s'est élevé à 23, 9 milliards d'euros en 2021. A l'export, les trois quarts de ce montant étaient le fait de seulement quatre acteurs : le Brésil (29, 5%), les Etats-Unis (18, 2%), l'UE-27 (14, 2%) et la Thaïlande (12, 7%). Si ces pays occupaient déjà une place centrale dès 2000 (avec 79% du total des exportations), le poids du Brésil a nettement augmenté contrairement à celui des Etats-Unis et de l'UE-27. A l'import, le niveau de concentration est moins net, 41% des flux mondiaux de 2021 résultant des quatre premiers acteurs, à savoir la Chine (12, 6%), le Japon (12, 5%), le Royaume-Uni (10, 2%) et l'UE-27 (5, 6%). En 2022, le solde commercial de l'UE-27 en viande de volailles atteignait 2, 12 milliards d'euros. Les exportations de l'UE-27 étaient surtout orientées vers le Royaume-Uni (58, 6% du total en 2022), les pays qui arrivaient ensuite étant la Suisse (4, 7%), le Ghana (3, 7%) et l'Arabie Saoudite (3, 7%). De leur côté, les importations de l'UE-27 résultaient, en 2022, pour l'essentiel du Brésil (35, 1%), de la Thaïlande (26, 7%) et de l'Ukraine (10, 7%), ce dernier pays gagnant des parts de marché depuis quelques années. Au sein de l'UE-27, les deux Etats membres les plus excédentaires en viande de volailles étaient, en 2022, la Pologne (4, 4 milliards d'euros) et les Pays-Bas (1, 3 milliard d'euros). La France, qui a enregistré une forte dégradation de sa balance commerciale au fil des deux dernières décennies, est devenue l'Etat membre de l'UE-27 le plus déficitaire (avec -1, 14 milliard d'euros en 2022 contre +1, 15 milliard d'euros en 2000). Les importations couvrent désormais une large part de la consommation intérieure (42% des volumes en 2022). En mobilisant trois bases de données complémentaires issues des douanées (BACI, COMEXT et les Douanes françaises), sur une période longue (depuis 2000), l'objectif poursuivi ici est de mettre en évidence les principales tendances à l'oeuvre dans le commerce de viande de volailles (tant en valeur qu'en volume), ce à différentes échelles géographiques (monde, UE-27 et France). |
| Keywords: | Poultry, Trade, Competitiveness, Volailles, Commerce, Echanges, Compétitivité |
| Date: | 2024–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04835283 |
| By: | Henrekson, Magnus (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Johansson, Dan (Örebro University School of Business, Örebro, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | The neo-Schumpeterian growth models, which appeared in the early 1990s, have ostensibly reintroduced the entrepreneur into mainstream growth theory. However, we show that by ignoring genuine uncertainty and by assuming that profits follow an objectively true and ex ante known probability distribution, the entrepreneur is made redundant. Thus, the theory fails to exhaustively explain innovation, the role of ownership competence, profits, the function of financial markets, wealth and income distribution, and, ultimately, economic growth. These shortcomings risk leading to erroneous or overly narrow policy conclusions by overestimating the importance of supporting R&D investments. Rather, the presence of genuine uncertainty forms a fundamental theoretical basis for the importance of new venture creation as a source of innovation-driven growth; entrepreneurs must establish and expand firms to capture the subjectively perceived profit opportunities. Therefore, tax policy is decisive for the commercialization and dissemination of innovations by providing incentives to uncertainty-bearing, not only for entrepreneurs, but also for intrapreneurs and financiers taking an active part in the governance and development of firms based on innovations characterized by genuine uncertainty. Furthermore, taxation can distort the evolutionary selection of innovations and firms, for instance, by taxing owners and firms differently. |
| Keywords: | Creative destruction; Economic growth; Entrepreneur; Entrepreneurship policy; Innovation; Judgment; Knightian uncertainty |
| JEL: | B40 O10 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1514 |
| By: | Gauti B. Eggertsson; Finn D. Schüle |
| Abstract: | In standard New Keynesian models, future interest rate cuts have larger effects than current cuts—this is called the forward guidance puzzle. We argue that the forward guidance puzzle is not a puzzle. We show the puzzle arises from an implausibly large monetary regime change, exceeding anything in U.S. history since the Great Depression. By calibrating our model to four regime changes during the U.S. Great Depression, disciplined by changes in long-term bond yields, we find the model’s predictions are broadly consistent with historical data. |
| JEL: | E40 E5 E50 N0 N12 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33180 |
| By: | Stacciarini, João Henrique Santana (Federal University of Goiás) |
| Abstract: | The pharmaceutical sector achieved global revenues of USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, underscoring its immense economic power and strategic influence on the modern economy and global politics. This article, grounded in extensive data collection, systematization, and analysis, explores the dynamics of this power and influence. It examines the economic and political value of companies in the sector, the conflicts between corporations and nations, the geopolitical role of the sector during the COVID-19 pandemic, and its capacity to shape domestic policies through intensive lobbying, financial contributions to lawmakers, and interactions with regulatory and oversight bodies. |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z5mf6 |
| By: | Auriane Meilland (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AgroParisTech); Yann Kervinio (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées); Aurélie Méjean (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Are countries contributing their fair share to the Paris Agreement? The answer to this central question can rely on knowledge about existing and potentially shared views about fairness. Yet, current studies on existing fairness views are rare and often have a limited practical scope. In this article, we design and administer a survey to elicit fairness judgements among French and US citizens regarding these issues. We find that in both countries, most respondents think that principles of climate justice should be settled internationally even if they go against some countries' interests, and express a preference for common (rather than differentiated) responsibilities -all the more likely when they are concerned about climate change. We observe support for two theoretical effort sharing rules: a convergence towards equal per capita emissions, and an operationalized version of grandfathering. Our survey also shows inconsistencies in observed fairness judgements, and that citizens have difficulties coordinating on simple judgements regarding existing nationally determined contributions. We eventually call for the progressive development of standardised surveys on these questions. |
| Keywords: | fairness, climate justice, tacit coordination game, survey, empirical social choice |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04825108 |
| By: | Dirk Bergemann; Marek Bojko; Paul D\"utting; Renato Paes Leme; Haifeng Xu; Song Zuo |
| Abstract: | We study mechanism design when agents hold private information about both their preferences and a common payoff-relevant state. We show that standard message-driven mechanisms cannot implement socially efficient allocations when agents have multidimensional types, even under favorable conditions. To overcome this limitation, we propose data-driven mechanisms that leverage additional post-allocation information, modeled as an estimator of the payoff-relevant state. Our data-driven mechanisms extend the classic Vickrey-Clarke-Groves class. We show that they achieve exact implementation in posterior equilibrium when the state is either fully revealed or the utility is linear in an unbiased estimator. We also show that they achieve approximate implementation with a consistent estimator, converging to exact implementation as the estimator converges, and present bounds on the convergence rate. We demonstrate applications to digital advertising auctions and large language model (LLM)-based mechanisms, where user engagement naturally reveals relevant information. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.16132 |
| By: | Nadège Ianni (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Aurélie Kessous (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Pierre Valette-Florence (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores socially responsible consumption practices motivated by status. Nineteen mixed interviews were conducted with socially responsible consumers. Thematic analysis revealed four status-motivated practices, rooted in a marketing and philosophical conceptual framework. This behavior, driven by a search for exclusivity, is akin to snobbery and shows that effort generates status. The communication of status is established through educational transmission and sharing and concerns the reduction of consumption. |
| Abstract: | La présente communication propose d'explorer les pratiques de consommation socialement responsable motivées par le statut. Dix-neuf entretiens mixtes ont été conduits auprès de consommateurs socialement responsables. L'analyse thématique a fait émerger quatre pratiques motivées par une recherche de statut, ancrées dans un cadre conceptuel marketing et philosophique. Ce comportement orienté par une recherche d'exclusivité est apparenté à du snobisme et montre que l'effort génère du statut. La communication du statut s'établit par la transmission éducative et le partage et concerne également la réduction de la consommation. |
| Keywords: | socially responsible consumption; socially responsible conspicuous consumption; voluntary simplicity; cooperation; eco-philosophy, consommation socialement responsable ; consommation ostentatoire socialement responsable ; simplicité volontaire ; coopération ; éco-philosophie |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04834488 |
| By: | Philippe Goulet Coulombe; Maximilian Goebel; Karin Klieber |
| Abstract: | Machine learning predictions are typically interpreted as the sum of contributions of predictors. Yet, each out-of-sample prediction can also be expressed as a linear combination of in-sample values of the predicted variable, with weights corresponding to pairwise proximity scores between current and past economic events. While this dual route leads nowhere in some contexts (e.g., large cross-sectional datasets), it provides sparser interpretations in settings with many regressors and little training data-like macroeconomic forecasting. In this case, the sequence of contributions can be visualized as a time series, allowing analysts to explain predictions as quantifiable combinations of historical analogies. Moreover, the weights can be viewed as those of a data portfolio, inspiring new diagnostic measures such as forecast concentration, short position, and turnover. We show how weights can be retrieved seamlessly for (kernel) ridge regression, random forest, boosted trees, and neural networks. Then, we apply these tools to analyze post-pandemic forecasts of inflation, GDP growth, and recession probabilities. In all cases, the approach opens the black box from a new angle and demonstrates how machine learning models leverage history partly repeating itself. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.13076 |
| By: | Bianca He; Lauren I. Mostrom; Amir Sufi |
| Abstract: | Firms invest heavily in customer capital, and such investment is a main source of intangible capital value. This study measures investment in customer capital using sales and marketing expense from income statements, information on salaries paid to workers in sales and marketing, and text from annual 10-K SEC filings describing firms' sales and marketing strategies. Firms emphasize brand value, sales force, customer service, advertising, and the acquisition and use of customer data as sales and marketing strategies. Industries focused on platform business models, online sales, and the production of high tech manufactured goods invest most heavily in customer capital. Industry-level variation in the intensity of sales and marketing expense and R&D expense explains a large amount of the variation across industries in the value of intangible capital. Residual sales, general, and administrative expense after removing sales and marketing expense is uncorrelated with intangible capital value. Industries that invest most heavily in customer capital are growing as a share of aggregate revenue and enterprise value. |
| JEL: | D20 G3 M30 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33171 |
| By: | Didier Danet (GEODE - Chercheur associé GEODE (Université Paris 8)) |
| Abstract: | Les supply chains sont des cibles particulièrement vulnérables aux cyberattaques. Ces attaques peuvent en particulier détruire la confiance qui constitue un actif immatériel central pour l'efficacité économique des supply chains. La question se pose alors de savoir comment assurer une protection efficace des supply chains contre les cyberattaques susceptibles de détruire le moteur de leur efficacité. Deux logiques sont envisagée. Une logique rétributive qui associe obligations et sanctions, solution généralement retenue mais qui a l'inconvénient majeur d'entraver la lutte contre une intrusion lorsque celle-ci s'est produite. Une logique exploratoire qui cherche à promouvoir une coopération pleine et entière de la victime en lui garantissant qu'elle ne subira pas de sanctions sous certaines conditions. |
| Date: | 2024–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04799144 |
| By: | Jeonggyu Huh |
| Abstract: | We present a two-stage neural policy optimization framework for Merton's portfolio optimization problem that is rigorously aligned with Pontryagin's Maximum Principle (PMP). In Stage 1, we employ a discrete-time, backpropagation-through-time (BPTT)-based gradient scheme that converges to a stationary point of the parameterized control policy. Subsequently, in Stage 2, we refine this policy via a discrete-time, PMP-guided procedure, proven to converge to the Pontryagin-optimal solution. Central to our method is the approximation of adjoint variables from a policy-fixed backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE), yielding parameter gradients consistent with the PMP framework-all without explicitly solving the PMP-derived BSDE. As the policy parameters are iteratively updated, both the suboptimal adjoint variables and the neural network policies converge almost surely to their PMP-optimal counterparts. This ensures that the final learned policy is not only numerically robust but also provably optimal in the continuous-time sense. Our approach thus provides a theoretically grounded yet practically implementable solution, bridging modern deep learning techniques and classical optimal control theory for complex stochastic settings. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.13101 |