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on Investment |
| By: | Kwon, Namhoon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The Year of the Green Snake has arrived. I would like to start this year by thanking all of you, our readers, for your continued support for i-KIET Issues & Analysis. We at KIET expect the global economy to expand modestly again in 2025, as inflation eases and central banks turn to looser monetary policies favoring growth. But geopolitical uncertainties, volatility in financial markets, and the rising tide of protectionism worldwide present major challenges to the growth of the global economy. The outlook for growth in 2025 looks quite similar to what we just witnessed in 2024. As for South Korea, we expect construction investment to remain sluggish, but solid growth in exports and a slow but certain recovery in private consumption and facility investment should help the Korean economy grow by 2.1 percent. Private consumption is projected to grow by 1.9 percent, thanks to falling interest rates, higher real incomes, and a stabilization in consumer prices. Facility investment is also projected to grow, this time by 2.9 percent, reflecting the strength of the global tech sector and improved performance of leading Korean enterprises. Weak leading indicators of the business cycle in the construction sector are likely to weigh on construction investment, which is set to fall by 0.9 percent. But we expect exports to climb by 2.2 percent, thanks to robust demand for IT products and particularly for semiconductors. Korea’s trade surplus is poised to grow to USD 48.7 billion as a result. The year 2025 marks the start of an age of great global transformation, as nations race to develop and secure the cutting-edge technologies necessary to achieve digital transformation and carbon neutrality. As a leading think tank tasked with developing strategies for fostering new industries and growth, the research faculty at KIET will continue to conduct a wide range of proactive policy studies with a focus on the core issues of this age. We will strive to light the path forward for Korean industries and the Korean economy. I wish happiness and success for all of you in this new year, and I ask you to continue to support our research endeavors as we strive to find and establish effective measures to spark the growth of Korean industries. January 1, 2025 Namhoon KWON President, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade |
| Keywords: | South Korea; Korean economy; macroeconomics; exports; global transformation; carbon neutrality; industrial policy; economic security; Korean industry; steel; shipbuilding; auto industry; petrochemicals; semiconductors; batteries; Hyundai; Samsung; LG; KIET |
| JEL: | E60 E66 |
| Date: | 2025–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:2025_001 |
| By: | Lacaze, María Victoria; Alegre, Patricia; Errea, Damián; Blanco, Germán; Volpato, Guillermo; Fernandez, Mailen |
| Abstract: | El análisis de la evolución económica precisa de indicadores que cuantifiquen la riqueza creada y describan su trayectoria. Al interior de países con entramados productivos y configuraciones territoriales tan diversos, resulta crucial la generación de información estadística regional, debido a las singularidades de los ciclos económicos subnacionales. En efecto, el análisis de su seguimiento, duración e intensidad, resulta clave para anticipar las fases y evaluar la política macroeconómica. Pese a ello, la generación de información estadística constituye una actividad altamente compleja, con mayores dificultades en espacios subnacionales de segundo nivel. Una importante muestra de los esfuerzos estadísticos destinados a caracterizar las estructuras productivas regionales, es la estimación provincial del Producto Bruto Geográfico (PBG). Si bien se trata del indicador que con mayor precisión mide la actividad económica, la escasez de información estadística ha impulsado, desde la década del 2000, la estimación de indicadores sintéticos, empleando a tal fin series estadísticas de alta frecuencia y disponibles localmente. En particular, para el Municipio de General Pueyrredon, el Grupo de Investigación "Indicadores Socioeconómicos" ha estimado, en los últimos proyectos ejecutados, una versión preliminar del Indicador Sintético de Actividad Económica (ISAE-GP), para el período 2004-2018. Mientras que el PBG mide, anualmente, el nivel y la variación de la actividad económica, a través de información de todos los sectores económicos que constituyen la estructura productiva de la jurisdicción analizada, los indicadores sintéticos poseen alta frecuencia y se estiman a partir de reducido número de series, que experimentan co-movimientos respecto de economía en su conjunto. Pese a estas diferencias de alcance, los indicadores sintéticos pueden ser utilizadas como aproximaciones al PBG en la estimación de parámetros empleados para evaluar el impacto local de medidas de política nacional, o el generado por fenómenos externos, como el Covid-19, en una provincia, región o localidad. El presente documento discute los antecedentes, la fundamentación metodológica y los avances del Grupo de Investigación, hasta el momento, en la elaboración del ISAE-GP. |
| Keywords: | Medición; Actividad Económica; Indicadores Económicos; Indices Sintéticos; Metodología; Partido de General Pueyrredon; |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4244 |
| By: | Fremerey, Melinda; Hentze, Tobias; Kolev-Schaefer, Galina; Sultan, Samina |
| Abstract: | Über die letzten 30 Jahre hat sich in der Europäischen Union (EU) ein komplexes Geflecht an nationalen und supranationalen Fiskalregeln mit dem Ziel nachhaltiger öffentlicher Finanzen herausgebildet. Derweil haben die staatlichen Maßnahmen zur Abfederung der wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Corona-Pandemie und des rus- sischen Angriffskriegs in der Ukraine die Staatsschulden in einigen Mitgliedstaaten erheblich ansteigen las- sen. Mit dem Inkrafttreten der reformierten europäischen Fiskalregeln in diesem Frühjahr ergibt sich ein erhöhter Handlungsdruck für die nationalen Haushaltsverhandlungen; zumal nun auch stärker mittelfristige Risiken, wie demografisch bedingte Kosten, in der Schuldentragfähigkeitsanalyse der Europäischen Kommis- sion berücksichtigt werden. Dies ist prinzipiell zu begrüßen. Diskussionswürdig sind dabei zwei Aspekte: Ers- tens kann der Grenzwert für den Schuldenstand von 60 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) mit Blick auf die anstehende Transformation zu Fehlsteuerungen führen; eine Investitionsklausel gibt es nicht. Zweitens sind die Annahmen in Teilen sehr strikt. So ist zwar die Annahme einer konstanten Fiskalpolitik mit Blick auf die Handhabbarkeit der Simulationsrechnungen nachvollziehbar. Zudem kann dadurch die politische Not- wendigkeit für Fiskalreformen offengelegt werden. Jedoch kann dies im Ergebnis auch dazu führen, dass der Pfad der Nettoprimärausgaben eher flach, also mit hohen Risikoabschlägen, angesetzt wird. Gleichzeitig er- fordert die Transformation erhebliche Investitionen. In Deutschland verschärft sich diese Lage durch den In- vestitionsstau, der die Attraktivität des Standorts schmälert. Die strenge Regelung der Schuldenbremse setzt dem Bund und den Ländern derzeit enge Grenzen, um diesen Bedarf zu erfüllen. [...] |
| Keywords: | Europäische Union, Staatsverschuldung, Standort Deutschland, Steuer- und Finanzpolitik, Verteilung öffentlicher Finanzen |
| JEL: | H50 H54 H62 H63 H68 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:306358 |
| By: | Hai-Anh Dang; Ibrahima Sarr; Carlos Santiago Guzman Gutierrez; Theresa Beltramo; Paolo Verme |
| Abstract: | Household consumption or income surveys do not typically cover refugee populations. In the rare cases where refugees are included, inconsistencies between different data sources could interfere with comparable poverty estimates. We test the performance of a recently developed cross-survey imputation method to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees in Colombia, combining household income surveys collected by the Government of Colombia and administrative (ProGres) data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in 2019 and 2022. We find that certain variable transformation methods can help resolve these inconsistencies. Estimation results with our preferred variable standardization method are robust to different imputation methods, including the normal linear regression method, the empirical distribution of the errors method, and the probit and logit methods. Several common machine learning techniques generally perform worse than our proposed imputation methods. We also find that we can reasonably impute poverty rates using an older household income survey and a more recent ProGres dataset for most of the poverty lines. These results provide relevant inputs into designing better surveys and administrative datasets on refugees in various country settings. |
| Keywords: | colombia, imputation, poverty, refugees |
| JEL: | C15 F22 I32 O15 O20 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:422 |
| By: | Philippe Robert-Tanguy (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel, GRIPIC - Groupe de recherches interdisciplinaires sur les processus d’information et de communication - SU - Sorbonne Université) |
| Abstract: | The development of leadership is a priority for corporate management. Leadership development programs typically promote models built around "one" leader, and tend to give a vision of an "ideal" leader. "Post-heroic" leadership theories have emerged, such as "distributed leadership", but they are mainly studied in terms of their effects, with too little focus on their implementation. Based on a collaborative research project conducted in a research institute, this article focuses on the emergence and appropriation of distributed leadership (DL). We propose a model of DL centered around nine roles. This research and its results allow us to discuss the elements that favor the development of distributed leadership in organizations, particularly by constructing an approach more focused on leadership rather than on individual leaders. |
| Abstract: | Le développement du leadership fait partie des priorités des directions d'entreprise. Les programmes de développement du leadership promeuvent généralement des modèles construits sur « un » leader, et ont tendance à donner une vision d'un leader « idéal ». Si des approches d'un leadership « post-héroïque » se sont développées, notamment celle du « leadership distribué », celles-ci sont surtout étudiées sous l'angle de leurs effets, et trop peu de leur mise en œuvre. En nous appuyant sur une recherche-collaborative dans un institut de recherche, nous nous intéressons dans cet article à l'émergence et à l'appropriation du « leadership distribué » (LD). Nous proposons une modélisation du LD autour de neuf rôles. Cette recherche et ses résultats nous permettent de discuter des éléments favorisant le développement d'un leadership distribué dans les organisations, notamment en construisant une démarche plus focalisée sur le leadership que sur les leaders. |
| Keywords: | Leadership Development, Distributed Leadership, Sociology of Organizations, Research Management, Scientific Research, Science, Développement du leadership, Leadership distribué, Sociologie des organisations, Management de la recherche, Recherche scientifique |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04843617 |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Die Tugendethik hat Schwierigkeiten, und sie macht Schwierigkeiten. Beides hängt zusammen. Die Tugendethik macht extern Schwierigkeiten, weil sie intern Schwierigkeiten hat. Sie ist dort manifest marktfeindlich, wo sie falsch denkt. Mehr noch: Die internen und dann auch die externen Schwierigkeiten der Tugendethik lassen sich durch eine robustere Situierung ihres Theorieprogramms beheben. Eine solche Situierung umfasst zwei Aspekte: der erste betrifft die zeitdiagnostische Verortung der Tugendethik, der zweite ihre theoriestrategische Selbstreflexion (und Selbstbescheidung). Eine Tugendethik, die dies beherzigt, könnte gemeinsam mit der Ordnungsethik daran arbeiten, dem Moralparadoxon der Moderne entgegenzuwirken. |
| Abstract: | Virtue ethics has difficulties, and it causes difficulties. These two problems are connected: Virtue ethics causes difficulties externally because it has difficulties internally. It is manifestly anti-market where it thinks wrongly. Furthermore, the internal and then also the external difficulties of virtue ethics can be solved by a more robust positioning of its theoretical program. Such a positioning comprises two aspects: the first concerns the time-diagnostic location of virtue ethics, the second its theory-strategic self-reflection (and self-limitation). A virtue ethics that takes this to heart could work together with order ethics to counter the moral paradox of modernity. |
| Keywords: | Entfremdung, Ordonomik, Individualethik, Tugendethik, Ordnungsethik, Mismatch, Moralparadoxon der Moderne, Alienation, Ordonomics, Individual Ethics, Virtue Ethics, Order Ethics, Moral Paradox of Modernity |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:307126 |
| By: | Allayioti, Anastasia; Arioli, Rodolfo; Bates, Colm; Botelho, Vasco; Fagandini, Bruno; Fonseca, Luís; Healy, Peter; Meyler, Aidan; Minasian, Ryan; Zahrt, Octavia |
| Abstract: | This paper looks back on the 25-year history of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Since its launch in the first quarter of 1999, it has served as an important input for policymaking and analysis, especially over the past five years, where the euro area has, following a period of low inflation, navigated a global pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an unprecedented surge in inflation. The survey has evolved over time and provides not only a long time series of economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties. We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast – HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate – the track record of the ECB SPF in forecasting has been broadly comparable to that of the Eurosystem. In addition, its combination of quantitative point forecasts and probability distributions with qualitative explanations has provided useful input for macroeconomic analysis. Beyond analyses of the forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables, there are also two further sections that examine the technical assumptions (oil prices, policy rates, exchange rates and wages) underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are shown to account for the lion’s share of the variance in the inflation forecast errors, while uncertainty is shown to have increased considerably relative to that which prevailed during the early years of the SPF (1999-2008). Looking ahead, the SPF – with its long track record, its large and broad panel (spanning both financial and non-financial forecasters) and committed panellists – will undoubtedly continue to provide timely and useful insights for the ECB’s policymakers, macroeconomic experts, economic researchers and the wider public. JEL Classification: D84, E31, E37, E52, E66 |
| Keywords: | expectations, forecasts, inflation, SPF, survey |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024364 |
| By: | Hiller, Nobert; Lerbs, Oliver; Oberst, Christian |
| Abstract: | Mit dem Zensus 2022 liegen erstmals seit 2011 wieder verlässliche regionale Daten zum Wohneigentum in Deutschland vor. Der Zeitraum zwischen den beiden Zensuserhebungen entspricht nahezu deckungsgleich dem Immobilienmarktboom der 2010er-Jahre in Deutschland. Dies nutzt die vorliegende Studie, um anhand der Zensusdaten (ergänzt durch weitere Regionaldaten wie Preise, wirtschaftliche und demografische Indi- katoren etc.) den Einfluss des langjährigen Booms am deutschen Immobilienmarkt auf die Wohneigentums- bildung privater Haushalte zu untersuchen. Die regionale Auswertung wird durch eine Betrachtung auf Haus- haltsebene, basierend auf den Mikrodaten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP), ergänzt. Auf Grundlage der Ergebnisse werden wohnungspolitische Ansätze zur Stärkung der Wohneigentumsbildung aufgezeigt. [...] |
| Keywords: | Wohneigentum, Wohneigentumspolitik, Regionalökonomik, Deutschland |
| JEL: | R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:306356 |
| By: | Delis, Manthos; Iosifidi, Maria; Pnevmatikos, Lampros; Tsiritakis, Emmanuel |
| Abstract: | Credit negotiations can have real economic implications, especially for small firms that heavily rely on bank credit. We hypothesize and empirically establish through textual analysis that three characteristics reflecting credit negotiations are the time interval from loan application to approval or rejection, the probability of applying to another bank, and the probability of reapplying soon after a rejection. We show that poor and female entrepreneurs negotiate less vigorously, and identify several channels backing these effects, most notably education of loan applicants and firm R&D expenses. We also show how the identified effects influence loan approval and firm performance. |
| Keywords: | Credit negotiations; Small firms; Loan applications; Firm performance |
| JEL: | G0 G02 G2 G21 G30 |
| Date: | 2023–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123003 |
| By: | Christophe Haag (EM - EMLyon Business School); Clément Poirier; Lisa Bellinghausen (EM - EMLyon Business School) |
| Abstract: | Managers sometimes have a bad reputation as they are often perceived as more manipulative than other employees. This study focuses on the Dark Triad (DT)—comprising psychopathy, Machiavellianism, and narcissism—and its connection with managers' "Ability" Emotional Intelligence (AEI). The link between DT (measured through the Dirty Dozen) and managers' AEI (measured through QEPro, an AEI performance test) was examined through a Latent Profile Analysis (LPA). We identified two AEI latent profiles within a heterogeneous population of 231 French managers. Our results show that managers with the FEP (Full Emotional Processing) profile are less Machiavellian (relative to the MEP -Minimal Emotion Processing- profile). Our results show that identifying AEI profiles may be a practical way to prevent toxic Management. |
| Keywords: | emotional intelligence, manager ability, latent profile analysis, dark triad (DT), ability emotional intelligence |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04850397 |
| By: | Vincent Joguet |
| Abstract: | La Namibie est à l’aube d’un changement majeur qui devrait complètement transformer son économie. Les récentes découvertes de vastes réserves pétrolières pourraient en effet propulser le pays parmi les premiers producteurs africains. Le pays anticipe cette manne en mettant en place un fonds souverain, inspiré du modèle norvégien, visant à investir ces recettes dans le long terme, en protégeant l’économie des fluctuations mondiales des matières premières et en contribuant à une meilleure répartition des richesses. Dès aujourd’hui, ces découvertes bouleversent sa balance des paiements par les flux massifs d’investissements directs étrangers et les importations de biens et services liés à cette activité. Reste que cette orientation renforcerait la vulnérabilité du pays à la transition bas carbone en maintenant l’économie dans son schéma extractif. |
| Keywords: | Namibie |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr17740 |
| By: | Patrice Bougette (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Oliver Budzinski (Ilmenau University of Technology, Germany); Frédéric Marty (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the evolving landscape of competition law enforcement, focusing on the dynamic interplay between ex-ante and ex-post approaches. Amidst the digital transformation and regulatory shifts, traditional enforcement mechanisms are being re-evaluated. This study aims to dissect the economic rationale behind these shifts, proposing a hybrid framework that balances legal certainty with the flexibility needed to address contemporary market challenges. In particular, the analysis highlights the emergence of new competition policy approaches that combine regulatory-type interventions with strengthened enforcement strategies. |
| Keywords: | Competition Law Enforcement, Ex-ante and Ex-post Approaches, Anticompetitive Practices, Merger Control, Digital Economy |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afd:wpaper:2407 |
| By: | Andreas Hornstein; Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia; Alexander L. Wolman |
| Abstract: | Monthly U.S. inflation from 1995 through 2019 is well explained by statistics summarizing the monthly distribution of relative price changes. We document this relationship and use it to evaluate the behavior of inflation during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. In earlier periods when inflation was not stable, the relationship between inflation and the distribution of relative price changes shifts, much like the Phillips curve. We use that shifting relationship to derive a measure of underlying inflation that complements existing measures used by central banks. |
| Keywords: | inflation; monetary policy |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:99276 |
| By: | Jean Pisani-Ferry; Simone Tagliapietra |
| Abstract: | In this Policy Brief, we assess the investment needed to achieve the 2030 climate goal and climate neutrality by 2050 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polbrf:node_10497 |
| By: | Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Agnes Medinaceli (SDSN Bolivia); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of family living expenses and living wages for the coffee producing region of South and Southwestern Minas Gerais State in Brazil. The update for 2024 takes into account inflation and changes in payroll deductions since the original Anker living wage study carried out in July 2015 (De Freitas Barbosa, Barbosa, Candia, & Alves, 2015). |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living wages, Anker Methodology, Brazil, coffee. |
| JEL: | I31 J3 J28 J8 J4 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:240426 |
| By: | Christopher J. Neely |
| Abstract: | Presidential elections create uncertainty about future economic policy that translates into volatility in asset prices. How has the VIX performed around U.S. elections since 1988? |
| Keywords: | asset price volatility; stock market; stock market volatility; presidential elections |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99209 |