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on Investment |
| By: | Park, Sung Keun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kang, Sungwoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Han, Jung Min (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Over the last two decades, South Korean automotive and semiconductor exports have grown dramatically, while exports of other products have either stagnated or declined. In this report, we seek to explain these phenomena using income elasticity. The global income elasticity of Korean exports (the percentage change in Korean exports in response to a percentage change in the world income) is influenced by structural factors, such as the competitiveness of and preference for Korean-made products, and which cannot be explained by cyclical factors such as demand and exchange rates. An overall decline in the income elasticity of Korean industries (and particularly the materials industry) appears to stem from the fragmentation of the global economy, offshoring by manufacturers, and China’s growing ability to produce intermediate materials domestically. Growing demand for eco-friendly vehicles (electric, hybrid, etc.) and the rising popularity of Korean culture and brands (Hallyu) may have helped the income elasticity of the Korean automotive industry turn positive in 2022. In comparison, the income elasticity of the Korean semiconductor industry has been soaring since 2015, thanks to years of aggressive investment, innovations fueling demand growth, and the United States’ institution of sanctions against China. In the coming years, the income elasticity of Korean industries is likely to drop further due to four main factors: 1) slower trade due to escalating tensions between the United States and China and the continued fragmentation of the global economy, (2) increasingly restrictive net-zero regulations that disproportionally affect emissions-heavy industries, (3) more offshoring, (4) continuous Chinese investment in cutting-edge industries. Korea needs to attract investment by fostering an RE100-friendly business environment, (2) establish a comprehensive plan for maintaining its technological superiority in cutting-edge industries, and reconfigure global supply chains to ensure the continued stability of its production network. |
| Keywords: | auto industry; semiconductor industry; income elasticity; exports; materials industry; steel; Hyundai; Kia; POSCO; SK; trade; batteries; LG Energy Solution; KIET; South Korea |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F47 L61 L62 L63 L65 |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:2024_004 |
| By: | Julia Schmieder; Doris Weichselbaumer; Clara Welteke; Katharina Wrohlich |
| Abstract: | Promoting fathers to take parental leave is seen as a promising way to advance gender equality. However, there is still a very limited understanding of its impact on fathers’ labor market outcomes. We conducted a correspondence study to analyze whether fathers who take parental leave face discrimination during the hiring process in three different occupations. Fathers who took parental leave in a female-dominated or gender-neutral occupation are not less likely to be invited to a job interview compared to fathers who did not take leave. However, in the male-dominated occupation, fathers who have taken long parental leave are penalized. Regardless of leave-taking, fathers are treated less favorably than mothers in the female-dominated and the gender-neutral occupation, while the opposite is true for the male-dominated occupation. This suggests the presence of strong gender norms concerning the perception of ideal employees in different occupations. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, parental leave, gender, hiring, experiment |
| JEL: | C93 J13 J71 |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0054 |
| By: | Yahui Bai; Yuhe Gao; Runzhe Wan; Sheng Zhang; Rui Song |
| Abstract: | In recent years, there has been a growing trend of applying Reinforcement Learning (RL) in financial applications. This approach has shown great potential to solve decision-making tasks in finance. In this survey, we present a comprehensive study of the applications of RL in finance and conduct a series of meta-analyses to investigate the common themes in the literature, such as the factors that most significantly affect RL's performance compared to traditional methods. Moreover, we identify challenges including explainability, Markov Decision Process (MDP) modeling, and robustness that hinder the broader utilization of RL in the financial industry and discuss recent advancements in overcoming these challenges. Finally, we propose future research directions, such as benchmarking, contextual RL, multi-agent RL, and model-based RL to address these challenges and to further enhance the implementation of RL in finance. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.12746 |
| By: | Wang, Shu |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a high-frequency structural VAR framework for identifying oil price shocks and examining their uncertainty transmission in the U.S. macroeconomy and financial markets. Leveraging the stylized features of financial data - specifically, volatility clustering effectively captured by a GARCH model - this approach achieves global identification of shocks while allowing for volatility spillovers across them. Findings reveal that increased variance in aggregate demand shocks increases the oil-equity price covariance, while precautionary demand shocks, triggering heightened investor risk aversion, significantly diminish this covariance. A real-time forecast error variance decomposition further highlights that oil supply uncertainty was the primary source of oil price forecast uncertainty from late March to early May 2020, yet it contributed minimally during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Oil price, uncertainty, impulse response functions, structural VAR, forecast error variance decomposition, GARCH |
| JEL: | Q43 Q47 C32 C58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:307602 |
| By: | Land, Matthew |
| Abstract: | This research explores the role teacher experience plays in determining student achievement. Using data from the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction, I estimate how teacher experience affects student performance on the English language arts and mathematics portions of the Wisconsin Forward Exam. In doing so, I contribute to the literature by examining the effect of teacher experience on middle school student performance relative to elementary school student performance and by studying how the effectiveness of teachers varies at different experience levels. I find that teacher experience is more important in determining mathematics exam scores compared to English language arts exam scores. However, after controlling for unobserved school characteristics by using school fixed effects, I only find significant returns to teacher experience in third grade mathematics. Additionally, I find that these returns persist well into teachers’ careers, as the largest returns to teacher experience in third grade mathematics occur in the groups of the most experienced teachers. This evidence highlights the need for future research to examine differences in the returns to teacher experience between grade levels and subject areas and to explore why such differences exist. |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umapmt:348435 |
| By: | Jan Frankowski; Aleksandra Prusak; Jakub Sokołowski; Joanna Mazurkiewicz; Tomasz Świetlik |
| Abstract: | The importance of energy as a common good becomes especially pronounced during crises. This paper reconstructs the response of housing cooperatives to the energy crisis by applying Kenneth Burke’s five categories of theatre interpretation and eighteen impression management strategies inspired by Erving Goffman’s dramaturgical sociology to assess the dominant cooperative approaches. We analyse a unique dataset of 215 annual reports of Polish rural housing cooperatives, which display a range of reactive, proactive, and collaborative attitudes to high energy prices and fuel shortages resulting from the embargo on Russian coal. The unexpected nature of the crisis led four out of five rural housing cooperatives to adopt defensive impression management strategies. The three most common strategies were crisis attribution (66%), resourceful management (18%), and deliberative silence (12%). Our findings portray housing cooperatives as solitary and routine actors, undertaking an extraordinary effort often beyond their capacities. While cooperative efforts were partially supplemented by resident solidarity, particularly within micro-cooperatives reliant on coal with a stronger sense of community, the uncertain future of these entities calls for louder advocacy, targeted financial support, and better recognition of rural cooperatives as heating communities and intermediaries essential for ensuring local energy security. |
| Keywords: | housing cooperatives, heating, local communities, energy transition |
| JEL: | P13 O18 P28 P48 P31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp042024 |
| By: | Oliver de Groot (University of Liverpool and CEPR); C. Bora Durdu (Federal Reserve Board); Enrique G. Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania and NBER) |
| Abstract: | We compare global (fixed-point iteration) and local (first-order, higher-order, risky-steady-state, and quasi-linear) solutions of open-economy incomplete-markets models. Cyclical moments of a workhorse endowment model are broadly in line with the data and similar across solutions calibrated to the same data targets, but impulse responses and spectral densities differ. Alternative local solutions yield nearly identical results. Calibrating them requires nontrivial interest-rate elasticities that make net foreign assets (NFA) “sticky, ” causing them to differ sharply from global solutions in experiments altering precautionary savings (e.g., increasing income volatility, adding capital controls). Analytic and numerical results show that our findings are due to the near-unit-root nature of NFA under incomplete markets and imprecise solutions of their autocorrelation. These findings extend to a Sudden Stops model with an occasionally binding collateral constraint. In addition, quasi-linear methods yield smaller financial premia and macroeconomic responses when the constraint binds. |
| Keywords: | Solution methods; Sudden stops; Precautionary savings; Occasionally binding constraints |
| JEL: | D82 E44 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–11–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:24-037 |
| By: | Echenique, Federico; He, Kevin |
| Abstract: | We show that adding noise before publishing data effectively screens [Formula: see text]-hacked findings: spurious explanations produced by fitting many statistical models (data mining). Noise creates baits that affect two types of researchers differently. Uninformed [Formula: see text]-hackers, who are fully ignorant of the true mechanism and engage in data mining, often fall for baits. Informed researchers, who start with an ex ante hypothesis, are minimally affected. We show that as the number of observations grows large, dissemination noise asymptotically achieves optimal screening. In a tractable special case where the informed researchers theory can identify the true causal mechanism with very few data, we characterize the optimal level of dissemination noise and highlight the relevant trade-offs. Dissemination noise is a tool that statistical agencies currently use to protect privacy. We argue this existing practice can be repurposed to screen [Formula: see text]-hackers and thus improve research credibility. |
| Keywords: | dissemination noise, p-hacking, privacy, research integrity |
| Date: | 2024–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt6sm4w1jf |
| By: | Haß, Marlen; Banse, Martin; Eysholdt, Max; Gocht, Alexander; Laquai, Verena; Offermann, Frank; Pelikan, Janine; Rieger, Jörg; Stepanyan, Davit; Sturm, Viktoriya; Zinnbauer, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2024-2034 sowie die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen dar. Die Thünen-Baseline ist ein Basisszenario und beschreibt die zukünftige Entwicklung der Agrarmärkte unter definierten politischen und wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen. Zentrale Annahmen sind die Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik und Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politik-änderungen sowie die Fortschreibung exogener Einflussfaktoren auf Basis historischer Trends. Die Berechnungen beruhen auf Daten und Informationen, die bis zum Frühjahr 2024 vorlagen. Dargestellt werden Projektionsergebnisse für Agrarhandel, Preise, Nachfrage, Produktion, Einkommen und Umweltwirkungen. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse konzentriert sich hauptsächlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors bis zum Jahr 2034 im Vergleich zum Durchschnitt der Basisperiode 2020 2022. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die EU ihre Position im weltweiten Agrarhandel bis zum Jahr 2034 behaupten kann. Die Preise für Agrarprodukte sinken zu Beginn der Projektionsperiode vom hohen Niveau des Basisjahres, können sich bis zum Jahr 2034 jedoch wieder erholen. In Deutschland entwickelt sich der Anbau von Getreide rückläufig, was auf veränderte Preiserelationen sowie einen Rückgang der landwirtschaftlich genutzten Fläche zurückzuführen ist. Im Tiersektor setzt sich der in den letzten Jahren beobachtete Abbau der Tierbestände und Rückgang der Fleischerzeugung fort, insbesondere in der Schweinehaltung, wohingegen die Geflügelfleischerzeugung bis zum Jahr 2034 noch leicht wächst. Eine positive Preisentwicklung am Milchmarkt in Verbindung mit einer weiteren Steigerung der Milchleistung führen außerdem zu einem moderaten Anstieg der Milchanlieferungen. Das durchschnittliche reale Einkommen landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe geht über die Projektionsperiode um 17 Prozent zurück und liegt damit im Jahr 2034 wieder auf dem mittleren Niveau der letzten zehn Jahre. |
| Abstract: | This report presents selected results of the Thünen-Baseline 2024-2034 as well as the underlying assumptions. The Thünen-Baseline represents a base scenario that describes the development of agricultural markets under given macro-economic conditions assuming no change in the current policy framework. Central assumptions are the continuation of the current agricultural policy and the implementation of already decided policy changes as well as the extrapolation of exogenous drivers based on historical trends. The report includes projection results on agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental indicators. The presentation of results focuses mainly on the developments of the German agricultural sector up to the year 2034 compared to the average level of the base period 2020-2022. The results show that the EU can maintain its position in the global agricultural trade until 2034. Prices of agricultural products are projected to decline at the beginning of the projection from the high levels of the base year period but are expected to recover by 2034. In Germany, the cultivation of cereals is projected to decline due to changes in price relations and a decline in agricultural land. In the livestock sector, the reduction in livestock numbers and decline in meat production observed in recent years will continue, particularly in pig farming, whereas poultry meat production is projected to experience slight growth until 2034. Moreover, a positive price development in the dairy market and further growth in milk yields lead to a moderate increase in milk deliveries. The average real income of farms declines by 17 percent over the projection period and will thus return to the average level of the last ten years by 2034. |
| Keywords: | Agrarpolitik, Politikfolgenabschätzung, Modell, Modellverbund, agricultural policy, impact assessment, model, model network |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:307131 |
| By: | Kungl, Gregor |
| Abstract: | Dieser Beitrag schafft einen Überblick über den Stand der Forschung zur Rolle etablierter Unternehmen (Incumbents) emissionsintensiver Wirtschaftsbereiche (Energieversorgung, Transport, Lebensmittelversorgung und verarbeitende Industrie) in nachhaltigen Transformationsprozessen. Anhand eines systematischen Reviews von 175 Fallstudien aus der nachhaltigen Transitionsforschung (Sustainability-Transitions) leistet er drei konzeptionelle Beiträge: Erstens bietet er eine (Neu-)Definition des Begriffs Incumbent, die auf die Transitionsforschung zugeschnitten ist und bisherigen begrifflichen Unschärfen begegnet. Zweitens formuliert er sieben Idealtypen von etablierten Unternehmen in nachhaltigen Transformationsprozessen, die über dichotome Rollenzuschreibungen hinausgehen und der Ambiguität und temporalen Dynamik der Aktivitäten von Incumbents gerecht werden. Drittens arbeitet er zehn Einflussfaktoren heraus, die den heterogenen Umgang von etablierten Unternehmen mit nachhaltigkeitsbezogenen Herausforderungen erklären können. Aus den Ergebnissen werden Perspektiven für die zukünftige Forschung über etablierte Unternehmen in nachhaltigen Transformationsprozessen abgeleitet. |
| Abstract: | This paper gives an overview of the state of research on the role of incumbents in emission-intensive economic sectors (energy supply, transportation, food supply and processing industries) in sustainable transformation processes. Based on a systematic review of 175 case studies from sustainability transitions research, it makes three conceptual contributions: First, it offers a (new) definition of the term incumbent that is tailored to transition research and addresses previous conceptual ambiguities. Secondly, it formulates seven ideal types of incumbent firms in sustainable transformation processes that go beyond dichotomous role attributions and do justice to the ambiguity and temporal dynamics of the activities of incumbents. Thirdly, it identifies ten factors that can explain the heterogeneous responses of incumbent firms to sustainability-related challenges. Finally, perspectives for future research on incumbent companies in sustainable transformation processes are derived from the results. |
| Keywords: | Unternehmen, Umweltbelastung, Umweltmanagement, Corporate Social Responsibility, Organisatorischer Wandel, Systematic Literature Review |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:stusoi:306345 |
| By: | Höhn, Vanessa; Focke, Christian |
| Abstract: | Dieses Arbeitspapier liefert einen kurzen Überblick über die Entwicklung der Wohnraumförderung in Deutschland und beschreibt den daraus resultierenden Status Quo. Darauf aufbauend wird der Bedarf an (zusätzlichen) Sozialwohnungen ebenso abgeschätzt wie der dafür notwendige Förderbedarf. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass der Bedarf an (zusätzlichen) bezahlbaren Wohnungen in Deutschland mangels systematischer Datenerhebung nur abgeschätzt werden kann. Er dürfte in einer Größenordnung von ca. 3, 5 Mio. Wohnungen liegen. Um diesen Bedarf zu befriedigen werden Fördermittel in erheblicher Höhe benötigt. Dabei kommt eine Vielzahl von Fördermöglichkeiten in Frage, die jeweils spezifische Vor- und Nachteile aufweisen, so dass ein Mix aus den diversen Ansätzen verfolgt werden sollte. |
| Abstract: | This working paper provides a brief overview of the development of subsidized housing in Germany and describes the resulting status quo. Based on this, the need for (additional) social housing as well as the necessary public funding is estimated. Due to a lack of systematic data gathering the (additionally) required number of subsidized housing units in Germany can only be estimated. It amounts to approximately 3.5 million units. In order to satisfy the need, a significant amount of public funding will be necessary. A variety approaches to public funding exists, hence all of them exhibit specific advantages and disadvantages so that a mix of different programmes should be implemented. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iiwmps:306366 |
| By: | James Alm (Tulane University); Jay A. Soled (Rutgers University); Kathleen DeLaney Thomas (University of North Carolina School of Law) |
| Abstract: | While attaining perfect tax compliance is unachievable, more can and must be done. In the past, the country has relied primarily on a traditional system of sticks (e.g., audits and penalties) and carrots (e.g., refunds and whistleblower awards) to help narrow the âtax gap, â or the difference between what taxpayers owe in taxes and what they actually pay. Now, in the social media era, Congress and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) should look beyond these traditional enforcement mechanisms. To achieve an even higher voluntary compliance rate, this article advocates for policymakers to invest greater resources to enhance the social norm related to tax compliance. While scholars have long suggested that social norms play a role in tax compliance, this article suggests a revolutionary approach, one that attempts to foster a social norm of compliance by employing the use of social media influencers. The internet and other electronic media have revolutionized and amplified the stunning impact that influencers can have. Virtually everyone, particularly the younger generation, is keenly aware of the dramatic impact that influencers can have in shaping social norms. Now is thus the time for Congress and the IRS to capitalize on this power by strategically employing social media influencers. A well-crafted influencer campaign could educate taxpayers on how to fulfill their tax obligations, remind taxpayers of the laudatory impact of the tax system, and foster a positive social norm of compliance. Such a change in compliance orientation could help policymakers narrow the tax gap, yielding billions of dollars of additional tax revenue without the need to raise tax rates. |
| Keywords: | Tax compliance, tax gap, social norms, social media, influencers, nudges |
| JEL: | H2 H26 D91 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2413 |
| By: | Rabia Bashir (School of Economics, Finance and Banking, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Sintok, Kedah, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Muhammad Ahmad Author-2-Workplace-Name: Accounting and Finance, Management and Science University, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Sultan Rehman Sherif Author-3-Workplace-Name: Business Management and Law, Management and Science University, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - The primary aim of this study is to investigate the effect of dynamic working capital (DWC) management on operational efficiency through operating expenses and operating margins across non-financial firms in emerging markets. Methodology/Technique – This study utilized generalized method of moments (GMM) to evaluate a comprehensive dataset of 438 firms from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand for the period 2018 to 2023. Findings – DWC is measured study using both cash conversion cycle (CCC) and working capital ratio (WCR). Results show that optimized DWC management reduces operating expenses (OER) and increases operating margins (OMR). These findings highlight the importance of efficient working capital practices and liquidity management in emerging markets. Novelty – This study provides valuable insights for financial managers in emerging countries, advocating focused strategies on working capital cycles to strengthen operational efficiency and profitability. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Working capital management, Cash conversion cycle, working capital requirement, Operating efficiency, Emerging countries |
| JEL: | M13 M40 M49 |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr224 |
| By: | Taiyo Fukai (Faculty of Economics, Gakushuin University); Keisuke Kawata (Institute of Social Sciences, University of Tokyo); Mizuki Komura (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University); Takahiro Toriyabe (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the gender gap in ask salaries using large administrative data of public job referrals, which allows us to look at the ask salaries of individuals from a wider wage distribution. We conduct a decomposition analysis using available information on age, desired work region, and desired occupation. We find that of the three factors, desired occupation is the most important in generating differences in ask salaries; however, the residuals are the largest outside of the three factors. A heterogeneity analysis is also conducted to understand the factors behind the residuals when only the available data are used. |
| Keywords: | Gender wage gap; Gender ask gap; Administrative |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:284 |
| By: | María Solana Cucher (Universidad de San Andrés); María Victoria Rosino (Universidad de San Andrés); María Florencia Ruiz (Universidad de San Andrés); Mariano Tommasi (Universidad de San Andrés) |
| Abstract: | Family structure and characteristics are considered an important factor in the reproduction of social inequalities. It has been documented that family structure and its stability correlate with various measures of well-being for children and adults, especially women, involved. In this paper, we use a retrospective survey for the City of Buenos Aires involving three different cohorts of women, to explore their conjugal and fertility trajectories. We describe those trajectories with a vector of variables that expand the notion of “fragile families” and use cluster analysis to characterize these trajectories. We find that our indicator of fragility correlates well with variables capturing social vulnerability both in the families of origin as well as in the women's own trajectories. Other findings include (i) an increase in "modern" lifestyles across cohorts, as captured by our indicators; (ii) a rise in educational attainment, with non-university tertiary education increasing before university education, indicating a transitional effect; and (iii) several indications of intergenerational transmission of family patterns and values – for instance, paternal absence is associated with higher teen fertility, and more "modern" lifestyles tend to be adopted by women whose mothers were the main breadwinners at home. A worrisome finding is that, according to our clustering, the number of women with high fragility has increased substantially. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:wpaper:171 |
| By: | Guillaume Blanc |
| Abstract: | This paper draws on a novel dataset crowdsourced from publicly available online genealogies to study demographic change and development in Europe before modern censuses became available. Using millions of publicly available family trees, I reconstruct fertility from horizontal lineages and identify migration to and from urban centers. Then, I systematically compare the data to a range of representative sources in thirty countries and show that selection is limited after the mid-seventeenth century. Finally, I document novel stylized facts on the rural flight, the demographic transition, and the intergenerational persistence of migration, fertility, and longevity; providing suggestive evidence that substantial changes took hold in the eighteenth century, in the early stages of the transition from stagnation to growth. |
| Keywords: | fertility, demography, migration, development |
| JEL: | J10 N33 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:allwps:0006 |