|
on Investment |
| By: | Schmieder, Julia; Weichselbaumer, Doris (University of Linz); Welteke, Clara (Bundesministerium der Finanzen); Wrohlich, Katharina (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Promoting fathers to take parental leave is seen as a promising way to advance gender equality. However, there is still a very limited understanding of its impact on fathers' labor market outcomes. We conducted a correspondence study to analyze whether fathers who take parental leave face discrimination during the hiring process in three different occupations. Fathers who took parental leave in a female-dominated or gender-neutral occupation are not less likely to be invited to a job interview compared to fathers who did not take leave. However, in the male-dominated occupation, fathers who have taken long parental leave are penalized. Regardless of leave-taking, fathers are treated less favorably than mothers in the female-dominated and the gender-neutral occupation, while the opposite is true for the male-dominated occupation. This suggests the presence of strong gender norms concerning the perception of ideal employees in different occupations. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, parental leave, gender, hiring, experiment |
| JEL: | C93 J13 J71 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17451 |
| By: | Chu, Angus C.; Furukawa, Yuichi; Peretto, Pietro; Xu, Rongxin |
| Abstract: | Is agricultural productivity conducive to economic development? We develop a two-country open-economy Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous takeoff. With agricultural trade and a subsistence requirement, higher domestic agricultural productivity has ambiguous effects on the economy's takeoff and its transitional growth rate if domestic and imported agricultural goods are substitutes. Without the subsistence requirement, higher domestic agricultural productivity delays industrialization and lowers transitional growth by increasing domestic demand for agricultural labor. This specialization force works in the opposite direction of the change in domestic consumption pattern governed by the subsistence requirement, which tends to release labor from agriculture. Without agricultural trade, the specialization force is absent and the subsistence requirement on agricultural consumption implies that higher domestic agricultural productivity reallocates labor from agriculture to industry, hastening industrialization and raising transitional growth. Using cross-country panel-data, we find that agricultural productivity has a direct positive effect on economic growth but this positive effect weakens and even becomes negative when reliance on agricultural imports is sufficiently high. Simulating the calibrated model, we find that improvement in domestic agricultural productivity accounts for about one-third of the changes in TFP growth in China and Japan, respectively, and more so for their main trading partner, the US. |
| Keywords: | international trade; agricultural productivity; innovation; endogenous takeoff |
| JEL: | F43 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122630 |
| By: | Yokoo, Hide-Fumi (Hitotsubashi University); KUBO, Takahiro (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)); Kunii, Daisuke; Sasaki, Hiroki |
| Abstract: | If a government highlighted the first producer to adopt green technology, how would the remaining producers react? This study is the first attempt to evaluate the impact of a message sent by the government to an industry about a first mover in climate action. Among 374 wineries in Japan, randomly selected half received a message mentioning the winery that was an early adopter of renewable energy. We then observed whether other wineries participated in webinars on carbon footprint measurement to collect information. We find that this message about climate leadership did not encourage the wineries to participate in the webinar, and it even had a negative effect on nearby wineries. We interpret these results as reflecting both the strategic decisions of competing wineries and the adverse psychological effects of the message. This preregistered experiment suggests that we must be cautious when designing policies to honor first movers on the supply side. |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hbzun |
| By: | Nicolas Cabra-Ruiz; Sandra V. Rozo; Maria Micaela Sviatschi |
| Abstract: | How does forced displacement shape development in origin countries? We examine the case of Venezuela, where over seven million people have been forcibly displaced. Our study compares municipalities with different proportions of foreign-born populations before and after the international oil price shocks that accelerated forced displacement between 2014 and 2019. Our findings show that municipalities with higher foreign-born populations in 1990, exhibiting greater out-migration from Venezuela after 2014, experienced lower economic development and higher inequality. We shed light on a novel mechanism: forced displacement facilitates the perpetuation of autocratic leaders, further hindering development. It does so by weakening the opposition’s voices and facilitating the expansion of organized crime and illicit sources of income. |
| JEL: | O10 P0 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33131 |
| By: | Muya, Jonathan; Malata, Alain |
| Abstract: | The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has faced persistent current account deficits despite a period of economic growth fueled by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This paper uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Balance of Payments (BOP) framework to explore the dynamics of the current account. It identifies economic growth and FDI as key factors influencing the current account balance, both in the short and long term. A key finding is that FDI inflows often coincide with a worsening current account. This is attributed to the relationship between capital inflows, increased private income, and higher imports, driven by limited local competitiveness. This dependence on imports highlights the structural weaknesses in the DRC’s economy. The study’s contribution is in identifying the dual role of FDI: while it boosts economic growth, it also increases external vulnerabilities by promoting import reliance. This insight is crucial for understanding the DRC’s current account issues and shaping policy to address them. To ensure sustainable development, the DRC must address these structural challenges through comprehensive reforms in industry, infrastructure, and education. These efforts would enhance local productivity, reduce import reliance, and lessen economic vulnerabilities. Moreover, promoting value-added sectors and export diversification is essential for long-term sustainability. Improving the business environment and fostering innovation could further support economic resilience. By addressing these issues, the DRC can better harness FDI for growth while reducing the current account deficit. In conclusion, this paper highlights the complex relationship between FDI and the current account in the DRC. It calls for urgent structural reforms to improve economic resilience and move towards more sustainable growth. |
| Keywords: | Current account sustainability, Intertemporal approach, FDI, Inertial Vulnerabilities |
| JEL: | F21 F31 F32 F41 F43 O14 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122709 |
| By: | Gideon Bornstein; Alessandra Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of nonlinear pricing on markups and misallocation. We develop a general equilibrium model of firms that are allowed to set a quantity-dependent pricing schedule—contrary to the typical assumption in macroeconomic models. Without the restriction to linear pricing, markup heterogeneity is no longer a sign of misallocation. Larger firms charge higher markups, yet the allocation of resources across firms is efficient. Further, we point to a new source of misallocation. In general equilibrium, high-taste consumers are allocated too much of each good, low-taste consumers too little. When labor supply is elastic, firms’ market power depresses aggregate labor, but this effect is independent of the level of the aggregate markup in the economy. Using micro data from the retail sector, we show that nonlinear pricing is prevalent and quantify the model. We find that the welfare losses from misallocation across consumers under nonlinear pricing are substantially larger than those from misallocation across firms under linear pricing. |
| JEL: | D4 E2 L1 O4 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33144 |
| By: | Challoumis, Constantinos |
| Abstract: | Over time, economic cycles have shaped the labor market, presenting both challenges and opportunities. Artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a transformative force, promising to redefine job creation while simultaneously addressing sustainability concerns. This exploration investigates into the intricate interplay between technological advancement and economic dynamics, providing insights into how AI can not only stimulate employment but also foster ecological balance. By understanding these interactions, we can better navigate the complex landscape of contemporary economies in pursuit of a more sustainable future. |
| Keywords: | economic cycles, AI, sustainability |
| JEL: | A1 A10 A14 A2 A20 H0 P0 P4 |
| Date: | 2024–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122719 |
| By: | Challoumis, Constantinos |
| Abstract: | There's a profound transformation occurring in employment and income distribution, primarily driven by the rise of artificial intelligence. In recent years, automation and machine learning technologies have begun to reshape industries, challenging our long-held perceptions of work and economic structures. As AI systems become increasingly sophisticated, they not only enhance productivity but also raise pivotal questions about job displacement and wealth inequality. This blog post examines into the intricate relationship between AI and the economy, exploring the implications for the workforce and our society at large. |
| Keywords: | AI, economy, technology, employment, income distribution |
| JEL: | P0 P3 Z1 Z18 Z19 |
| Date: | 2024–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122722 |
| By: | Nane Davtyan |
| Abstract: | The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has revolutionized consumer behavior analysis and digital marketing strategies by enabling personalized and efficient data-driven approaches. AI-driven tools like predictive analytics, natural language processing (NLP), machine learning, and programmatic advertising allow marketers to process vast amounts of real-time consumer data, facilitating optimized campaign performance and precise targeting. This paper explores the integration of AI in marketing, highlighting its role in enhancing predictive analytics, sentiment analysis, and real-time segmentation. Compared to traditional methods, AI-driven insights significantly improve engagement, accuracy, and return on investment (ROI). AI also plays a vital role in marketing automation, allowing dynamic adjustments in campaigns, ad placements, and content creation, improving efficiency and reducing costs. However, AI’s reliance on consumer data raises concerns regarding data privacy and algorithmic bias, especially in targeting. This paper stresses the importance of ensuring transparency, fairness, and regular audits in AI systems to maintain consumer trust and promote ethical AI use. Future research directions are discussed, focusing on enhancing transparency and algorithmic accountability while navigating the ethical challenges of AI in marketing. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence (AI), Consumer behavior analysis, Digital marketing, Predictive analytics, Natural language processing (NLP) |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfv:sbsrec:005 |
| By: | Yan-Feng Wu; Jian-Qiang Hu |
| Abstract: | We introduce ajdmom, a Python package designed for automatically deriving moment formulas for the well-established affine jump diffusion (AJD) processes. ajdmom can produce explicit closed-form expressions for moments or conditional moments of any order, significantly enhancing the usability of AJD models. Additionally, ajdmom can compute partial derivatives of these moments with respect to the model parameters, offering a valuable tool for sensitivity analysis. The package's modular architecture makes it easy for adaptation and extension by researchers. ajdmom is open-source and readily available for installation from GitHub or the Python package index (PyPI). |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.06484 |
| By: | Garg, Prashant; Fetzer, Thiemo |
| Abstract: | We analyze over 44, 000 economics working papers from 1980--2023 using a custom language model to construct knowledge graphs mapping economic concepts and their relationships, distinguishing between general claims and those supported by causal inference methods. The share of causal claims within papers rose from about 4\% in 1990 to 28\% in 2020, reflecting the ``credibility revolution.'' Our findings reveal a trade-off between factors enhancing publication in top journals and those driving citation impact. While employing causal inference methods, introducing novel causal relationships, and engaging with less central, specialized concepts increase the likelihood of publication in top 5 journals, these features do not necessarily lead to higher citation counts. Instead, papers focusing on central concepts tend to receive more citations once published. However, papers with intricate, interconnected causal narratives—measured by the complexity and depth of causal channels—are more likely to be both published in top journals and receive more citations. Finally, we observe a decline in reporting null results and increased use of private data, which may hinder transparency and replicability of economics research, highlighting the need for research practices that enhance both credibility and accessibility. |
| Date: | 2024–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:u4vgs |