nep-inv New Economics Papers
on Investment
Issue of 2024–12–09
twenty-six papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Università degli Studi di Teramo


  1. A Comprehensive Analysis of Recent Korean Export Performance By Park, Sung Keun; Han, Jung Min; Kang, Sungwoo
  2. Long-Term Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage in Germany: New Data and Estimators By Caliendo, Marco; Pestel, Nico; Olthaus, Rebecca
  3. Understanding Regional Balanced Development in Korea By Yoo, Yiseon; Hong, Jang Jae
  4. KIET Manufacturing Business Survey Index (BSI) for the 3rd Quarter of 2024 By Han, Jung Min
  5. From Decline to Revival: Strategies for Revitalizing the Korean Textile and Clothing Industry By Park, Hoon
  6. Fair Market Valuation of Electric Vehicle Batteries in Second Life Applications By Bach, Amadeus; Onori, Simona; Reichelstein, Stefan J.; Zhuang, Jihan
  7. Discount Window Stigma After the Global Financial Crisis By Olivier Armantier; Marco Cipriani; Asani Sarkar
  8. Estimation and Inference in Dyadic Network Formation Models with Nontransferable Utilities By Ming Li; Zhentao Shi; Yapeng Zheng
  9. Building a Stronger Single Market: Potential for Deeper Integration of the Services Sector within the EU By Florian Dorn; Lisandra Flach; Isabella Gourevich
  10. A policy framework for boosting the demand for green steel in the automotive industry By Urban, Patricia; Nipius, Luca; Egenhofer, Christian
  11. New evaluation tool for predicting disability pension risk among Finnish public sector employees By Petra Sohlman; Risto Louhi; Janne Salonen
  12. A Theory of International Boycotts By Abdoulaye Ndiaye
  13. The COVID-19 pandemic changed the socioeconomic composition of parents: a register-based study of 76.5 million live births in 12 countries By Moritz Oberndorfer; Juha Luukkonen; Hanna M. Remes; Thomas Waldhör; Lizbeth Burgos Ochoa; Marta Rado; Jasper V. Been; Enny S. Paixao; Ila R. Falcão; Pekka Martikainen
  14. Aspiring to a better future: can a simple psychological intervention reduce poverty? By Stefan Dercon; Kate Orkin; Mahreen Mahmud; Robert Garlick; Johannes Haushofer; Richard Sedlmayr
  15. Impact of global supply disruptions and energy prices on inflation in European countries By Mirjana Miletic, Danilo Cerovic and Aleksandar Tomin; Mirjana Miletic; Danilo Cerovic; Aleksandar Tomin
  16. Is CMDI what the Banking Union needs? By Arnal, Judith; Lannoo, Karel; Lastra, Rosa
  17. Measuring locational quality for commercial real estate By Gunther Maier; Karin Wagner
  18. Central Bank Independence and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A speech at the Albert Hirschman Lecture, 2024 Annual Meeting of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association and the Latin American and Caribbean Chapter of the Econometric Society, Montevideo, Uruguay., November 14, 2024 By Adriana Kugler
  19. Clustering Digital Assets Using Path Signatures: Application to Portfolio Construction By Hugo Inzirillo
  20. The Beige Book and the Business Cycle: Using Beige Book Anecdotes to Construct Recession Probabilities By Charles S. Gascon; Joseph Martorana
  21. Does Effective School Leadership Improve Student Progression and Test Scores? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Malawi By Salman Asim; Stefan Dercon; Ravinder Gera Casley; Donna Harris
  22. A comparison of using MIDAS and LSTM models for GDP nowcasting By Iva Glišic
  23. The impact of SME sector on economic growth in Africa By Ho, Sin Yu; Beri, Parfait Bihkongnyuy
  24. Most Swiss-system tournaments are unfair: Evidence from chess By L\'aszl\'o Csat\'o
  25. The Moderating Effect of Technostress on the Relationship between Personality Traits and Employee Turnover Intentions By Myriam Ghosn
  26. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s Housing Goals By Congressional Budget Office

  1. By: Park, Sung Keun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Han, Jung Min (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kang, Sungwoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: Recently, Korean exports have exhibited robust growth, driven primarily by shipments of automobiles and IT products such as semiconductors. The semiconductor market began to recover in October of 2023 despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, and Korean chip exports have surged in response. The upward trajectory of exports has continued ever since. The United States has emerged as the largest consumer of Korean exports, having continually increased its share since 2020. It replaces China at the top spot, exports to which have declined for three consecutive years now. In the first half of this year, Korea recorded a trade surplus of USD 28.7 billion with the US, which stands in stark contrast to its USD 5.4 billion deficit with China.
    Keywords: exports; trade; macroeconomy; auto industry; battery industry; semiconductors; shipbuilding; automotive sector; batteries; KIET; Korea
    JEL: F10 F13 F20 F21 F23 F50
    Date: 2024–09–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_022
  2. By: Caliendo, Marco (University of Potsdam); Pestel, Nico (Maastricht University); Olthaus, Rebecca (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: We investigate the long-term effects of the introduction of the German minimum wage in 2015 and its subsequent increases on regional employment. Using comprehensive survey data, we are able to measure the regional bite of the minimum wage in 2014, just before its introduction, as well as in 2018, before it was raised substantially in several steps. The introduction mainly affected the labour market in East Germany, while the minimum wage increases increasingly affected low-wage regions in West Germany, with about one third of regions changing their (binary) treatment status between 2014 and 2018. We use different specifications and extensions of the canonical difference-in-differences approach, as well as a set of new estimators that allow unbiased effect estimation with a staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects. Our results show a small negative effect on total dependent employment of 0.5%, driven by a significant reduction in marginal employment of 2.4%. The extended specifications suggest additional effects of the minimum wage increases, as well as stronger negative effects for those regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage in both periods.
    Keywords: minimum wage, employment, regional bite
    JEL: J23 J31 J38
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17436
  3. By: Yoo, Yiseon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Hong, Jang Jae (Regional Policy Research Institute)
    Abstract: In this article, we propose a definition for “regional balanced development, ” drawing from works in the literature and an analysis of its elemental terms. We briefly review the history of regional balanced development (RBD) in Korea and explore the directions future policy may take.
    Keywords: balanced development; regional development; regional inequality; demographic change; demographics; population aging; local extinction; Korea; KIET
    JEL: R10 R11 R12
    Date: 2024–09–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_023
  4. By: Han, Jung Min (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: The overall composite Business Survey Index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024 remained below the baseline (100). Most feeder indices declined compared to the previous quarter. Business conditions (from 91 to 86), sales (from 94 to 87), domestic demand (from 92 to 86) and exports (from 99 to 90) all fell compared to Q2 but remained higher than in Q3 2023 (domestic demand 81, exports 87). Facility investment (98) and employment (98) dipped slightly after consecutive quarters of growth, while inventory (101) remained above 100 for the second straight quarter. Ordinary profit (85) also declined, in contrast to the previous quarter’s index of 91. BSI forecasts for Q4 2024 indicate that manufacturers anticipate a more unfavorable business environment. Indices for business conditions (93) and sales (95) remain below 100, continuing ing their decline for the second consecutive quarter. The outlook for domestic demand (94) has remained below 100 for two consecutive quarters; the outlook for exports (96) has fallen below 100 for the first time in three quarters. Facility investment (97) and employment (99) also slid, however modestly.
    Keywords: production outlook; export outlook; manufacturing outlook; forecasting; manufacturing; Korea; KIET
    JEL: E60 E66
    Date: 2024–09–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_026
  5. By: Park, Hoon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: The South Korean textile and clothing industry is grappling with a perfect storm of challenges. Weak industrial competitiveness has led to a decline in exports and increasing consumer preference domestically for imports amid an ongoing economic downturn. Domestic firms’ productivity and profitability have tumbled due to a lack of technological innovation, a reliance on low-value added products, a dearth of exportoriented products, and an industrial structure dominated by small enterprises. The Korean government has continued to support the development of high value-added and high-performance technical textiles, hoping to foster them as a next-generation growth engine. But the technical textiles sector has thus far failed to blossom into an export industry, and firms remain dependent on imports of advanced textiles. The Korean textile and clothing industry is stuck in a nutcracker dilemma, with higher prices than lower-cost competitors such as China and weaker technology than advanced countries such as Japan and Germany. To address these challenges, this paper identifies policy measures capable of revitalizing the Korean textile and clothing industry, prying it out of the nutcracker. By strengthening its global competitiveness and pioneering global markets, particularly in high-value advanced technical textiles, the industry can position itself for future growth.
    Keywords: textiles; textile industry; textile technology; technical textiles; textile processing; textile manufacturing; Korea; KIET
    JEL: L52 L60 L67
    Date: 2024–09–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_024
  6. By: Bach, Amadeus (U of Mannheim); Onori, Simona (Stanford U); Reichelstein, Stefan J. (U of Mannheim and Stanford U); Zhuang, Jihan (Stanford U)
    Abstract: The rapidly growing number of lithium-ion battery packs deployed in electric vehicles (EVs) entails enormous economic potential for used EV batteries to be redeployed in a second life application, e.g., for behind-the-meter stationary energy storage. To examine this potential, we develop a generic economic valuation model for used capacity assets in which second life usage requires repurposing costs and delays the receipt of recycling payoffs. Our model estimates point to a robust economic case for repurposing battery packs with iron-based cathodes (LFP batteries). Specifically, we project that the fair market value of LFP batteries exiting from electric vehicles generally exceeds 40% of the market value of a new battery. The value retention shares of used LFP packs are substantially higher in the U.S. market than in China, owing to the fact that new batteries are traded at higher market prices in the U.S. In contrast, our findings point only to a marginal economic case for repurposing batteries with nickel-cobalt-based cathodes (NCX batteries) in the context of the U.S. market. This finding reflects the relatively large recycling payoffs available from nickel and cobalt as well as the relatively short life cycle of NCX cathodes. For the Chinese market, we obtain the unambiguous conclusion that owners of NCX batteries are better off not incurring the requisite repurposing costs but instead immediately collecting the available recycling payoff.
    Date: 2024–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4203
  7. By: Olivier Armantier; Marco Cipriani; Asani Sarkar
    Abstract: We study Discount Window (DW) stigma, the reluctance to access the Federal Reserve’s lender-of-last resort facility, between 2014 and 2024. Despite increased usage since 2020, we find conclusive evidence that the DW is stigmatized, especially among smaller banks and when financial markets experience disruptions. In particular, evidence of DW stigma emerged months before the 2023 banking turmoil and had not subsided a year later. We also identify new determinants and consequences of DW stigma. The implications of these results for the provision of emergency liquidity are discussed.
    Keywords: discount window; lender of last resort; stigma
    JEL: E52 G21 G28
    Date: 2024–11–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:99159
  8. By: Ming Li; Zhentao Shi; Yapeng Zheng
    Abstract: This paper studies estimation and inference in a dyadic network formation model with observed covariates, unobserved heterogeneity, and nontransferable utilities. With the presence of the high dimensional fixed effects, the maximum likelihood estimator is numerically difficult to compute and suffers from the incidental parameter bias. We propose an easy-to-compute one-step estimator for the homophily parameter of interest, which is further refined to achieve $\sqrt{N}$-consistency via split-network jackknife and efficiency by the bootstrap aggregating (bagging) technique. We establish consistency for the estimator of the fixed effects and prove asymptotic normality for the unconditional average partial effects. Simulation studies show that our method works well with finite samples, and an empirical application using the risk-sharing data from Nyakatoke highlights the importance of employing proper statistical inferential procedures.
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.23852
  9. By: Florian Dorn; Lisandra Flach; Isabella Gourevich
    Abstract: The service sector has been a key driver of growth in the European Union (EU) over the past two decades. However, despite the principle of free movement of services, the single market still faces significant national barriers and remains a patchwork of 27 systems across member states. Administrative hurdles are the most significant obstacles. These barriers significantly hinder cross-border trade in services.Our quantitative analysis shows that reducing barriers and better harmonizing regulations within the EU would deepen the integration of the EU internal market for trade in services. This would lead to gains in value added across all sectors, strengthening Europe's economy and competitiveness and generating substantial welfare gains.
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpr:_52
  10. By: Urban, Patricia; Nipius, Luca; Egenhofer, Christian
    Abstract: The nascent green steel industry requires increased demand to grow and a stable market to facilitate investments and to scale up production sites. Simultaneously, the automotive industry can use green steel’s environmental benefits to reduce its carbon footprint, as a large share of the industry’s emissions stem from the different steel components used in the construction of vehicles. Accounting for around 12 % of global steel consumption but potentially being able to pass on the price of a ‘green steel premium’ to its end consumers, the automotive industry is uniquely positioned to create demand for green steel without having to rely on public subsidies. This CEPS In-Depth Analysis investigates different policy options that could trigger more demand for green steel from the automotive industry. We analysed various multi-stakeholder initiatives as well as a range of policy options in terms of their potential to facilitate such demand. While multi-stakeholder initiatives have been important for industry cooperation and creating awareness for green steel within the automotive industry, the differences between their definitions and standards make it difficult to compare the various kinds of low-carbon steel. This may therefore reduce their potential to stimulate demand. The need for common EU standards for green steel has emerged as a crucial prerequisite for many policy options. Against the backdrop of carbon pricing and sustainable finance, creating transparency (e.g. through reporting activities) may indirectly induce demand for low-emissions steel among vehicle manufacturers. However, introducing a set target for reduced material emissions would likely have the largest potential to drive change. There are several policy options that could have scope to introduce such a target. Still, many uncertainties remain on how such a target could be designed and implemented, and policymakers will need to address some inherent conflicts. For example, obliging manufacturers to use a certain share of green steel for producing a vehicle may instead incentivise them to switch to other materials. Trying to regulate a vehicle’s overall carbon footprint could have a similar impact. Carmakers could achieve the necessary emissions reductions by using other materials while continuing to buy conventionally produced steel. This would not stimulate demand for green steel.
    Date: 2024–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:cepswp:42024
  11. By: Petra Sohlman; Risto Louhi; Janne Salonen
    Abstract: Using unique research data, we investigate disability retirement risk under the statutory public sector pension scheme in Finland. The statistical analysis yields two indicators: risk for upcoming permanent disability pension and critical duration of sickness absence days for public sector occupations. Statistical analysis is based on logistic regression model where the outcome is the disability pension, using sickness benefit spells and other individual background information as covariates. The results underline the importance of minimizing the sickness spells and their duration to the risk and reveal differences in risk across occupations. We conclude that the proposed risk model is a promising tool which can help employers and the pension industry in preventing permanent disability.
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.19890
  12. By: Abdoulaye Ndiaye
    Abstract: Calls to boycott a foreign country aim to push a share of domestic consumers to cut their consumption of goods imported from the targeted country. How do boycotts differ from sanctions? Should boycotters target all of the country’s products, or should they focus on a restricted set of sectors? I answer these questions in a canonical Ricardian model. The model allows me to determine the optimal targeted boycott strategies and trace out the Pareto frontier of the domestic boycotters’ and foreign country’s welfare.
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11267
  13. By: Moritz Oberndorfer; Juha Luukkonen; Hanna M. Remes; Thomas Waldhör; Lizbeth Burgos Ochoa; Marta Rado (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Jasper V. Been; Enny S. Paixao; Ila R. Falcão; Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Keywords: Europe, live births, parents, population composition
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-039
  14. By: Stefan Dercon; Kate Orkin; Mahreen Mahmud; Robert Garlick; Johannes Haushofer; Richard Sedlmayr
    Abstract: How do aspirations influence investment decisions for people living in poverty? Does this change as peoples economic conditions improve? To answer these questions, we design a work¬shop teaching techniques to raise aspirations and plan to achieve them. We cross-randomise this with large unconditional cash transfers in a 415-village, 8, 300-person, 1.5-year experiment in Kenya. The workshop substantially raises aspirations, investment, and living standards. But the workshop+cash produces similar effects to cash alone, potentially because cash raises aspirations. Thus, helping people living in poverty set higher aspirations can raise investment and living standards, but improving economic conditions can activate the same process.
    Date: 2023
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2023-12
  15. By: Mirjana Miletic, Danilo Cerovic and Aleksandar Tomin; Mirjana Miletic (National Bank of Serbia); Danilo Cerovic (National Bank of Serbia); Aleksandar Tomin (National Bank of Serbia)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to examine the extent to which global factors – supply chain disruptions and rising oil prices – affect inflation in Serbia and other European countries, this being particularly important in the context of the ongoing episode of global inflation growth, which is largely a consequence of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, but also of the energy crisis and the conflict in Ukraine. The analysis was carried out using the panel method, whereby an estimation was made for 31 European countries considered together and separately for European advanced and emerging economies. The analysis was carried out for the period from Q1 2006 to Q2 2023 using the panel ARDL model and estimates were obtained using the PMG and DFE methods, as well as the asymmetric ARDL model, where the inflationary impact of the rise and fall in global energy prices and of the tightening and easing of supply bottlenecks was tested separately. The obtained results suggest that global supply chain disruptions have a statistically significant effect on consumer and producer prices in the long term, and global oil prices in both the short and long term (controlled for the influence of domestic factors). The link between inflation and supply bottlenecks has been confirmed for both advanced and emerging economies, as well as by various disruption indicators (the European Commission’s Business Climate Indicator, measuring the level of disruption specific to a country, and the Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, gauging the intensity of global pressures), which indicates the robustness of the obtained estimates. When the asymmetric ARDL model is applied, a higher coefficient is obtained for the indicator of global supply chain disruptions (measured by GSCPI) when a negative shock occurs (their loosening) than in the case of a positive shock (tightening), which is a consequence of the significant drop in this indicator in the last three quarters of the period analysed. This suggests that the obtained result is not robust in relation to the period analysed, which is why, before drawing final conclusions regarding this part of the analysis, the model should be re-evaluated once data for a few more quarters become available.
    Keywords: inflation, global supply chain disruptions, energy, panel
    JEL: C32 C33 E43
    Date: 2023–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:19
  16. By: Arnal, Judith; Lannoo, Karel; Lastra, Rosa
    Abstract: After the end of the euro area sovereign debt crisis and the sovereign-bank feedback loop receded, EU Member States’ appetite for progress in the Banking Union significantly decreased. Against the background of lessons learnt from several resolution and liquidation cases during the first few years of the Banking Union, the European Commission tabled a proposal in April 2023 to reform the Crisis Management and Deposit Insurance (CMDI) framework. While this proposal has its merits, it falls short of the real pending issues for completing the Banking Union, namely the third pillar (EDIS or the European Deposit Insurance Scheme), a mechanism for liquidity provision in resolution, and the ‘missing pillar’ regarding the provision of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA). In this CEPS Policy Brief, we make three key recommendations on how to improve the CMDI proposal, namely: 1. Full harmonisation, or at least the harmonisation of the most relevant aspects of liquidation procedures; 2. Updating and aligning the Banking Communication with the BRRD/SRMR; and 3. Further facilitating access to industry funds. Finally, we strongly discourage ‘a piecemeal approach’ during the ongoing negotiations over the CMDI reform.
    Date: 2024–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:cepswp:42127
  17. By: Gunther Maier; Karin Wagner
    Abstract: The question what determines location quality of some real estate property is an essential one at the interface between real estate economics and regional science. Because of its heterogeneity, the question is particularly tricky in the context of commercial real estate. The Austrian Central Bank has begun to develop and implement price, rent and yield indices for commercial real estate in Austria. To make commercial prices and rents comparable in a hedonic sense, we capture locational quality effects.In this paper we will present the approach for measuring locational quality that we developed in the context of the indices. The applied tool relies on spatial information from Open Streetmaps. Indicators are developed therefrom, which are evaluated in the context of traded properties. In this paper we will present a first, preliminary evaluation based on a limited set of observations reported by financial institutions.
    Keywords: commercial real estate; Location; Open Streetmaps; Valuation
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2024–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-228
  18. By: Adriana Kugler
    Date: 2024–11–14
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:99068
  19. By: Hugo Inzirillo
    Abstract: We propose a new way of building portfolios of cryptocurrencies that provide good diversification properties to investors. First, we seek to filter these digital assets by creating some clusters based on their path signature. The goal is to identify similar patterns in the behavior of these highly volatile assets. Once such clusters have been built, we propose "optimal" portfolios by comparing the performances of such portfolios to a universe of unfiltered digital assets. Our intuition is that clustering based on path signatures will make it easier to capture the main trends and features of a group of cryptocurrencies, and allow parsimonious portfolios that reduce excessive transaction fees. Empirically, our assumptions seem to be satisfied.
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.23297
  20. By: Charles S. Gascon; Joseph Martorana
    Abstract: The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book prior to each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The report is a narrative based on anecdotal and qualitative information collected from a wide range of contacts in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. We take the lexicon approach to text analysis to create sentiment indexes that track changes in economic conditions from the very first Beige Book in May 1970 to the most recent (at the time of writing) in October 2024. We create additional indexes to account for various current-event shocks, such as political events or natural disasters that distort typical sentiment measures. We find that the real-time recession probabilities derived from a probit model featuring only the created sentiment and shock indexes are closely correlated with NBER recession periods, and more accurately indicate business cycle turning points than other widely cited measures. We find that the Beige Book can be used to promptly identify periods of economic recession as our model typically allows us to date business cycle turning points far in advance of the official announcements made by the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
    Keywords: Beige Book; Federal Reserve System; sentiment analysis; recession; business cycle
    JEL: E3 E58
    Date: 2024–11–21
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:99162
  21. By: Salman Asim; Stefan Dercon; Ravinder Gera Casley; Donna Harris
    Abstract: Evidence from high-income countries suggests that the quality of school leadership has measurable impacts on teacher behaviors and student learning achievement. However, there is a lack of rigorous evidence in low-income contexts, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study tests the impact on student progression and test scores of a two-year, multi-phase intervention to strengthen leadership skills for head teachers, deputy head teachers, and sub-district education officials. The intervention consists of two phases of classroom training along with follow-up visits, implemented over two years. It focuses on skills related to making more efficient use of resources; motivating and incentivizing teachers to improve performance; and curating a culture in which students and teachers are all motivated to strengthen learning. A randomized controlled trial was conducted in 1, 198 schools in all districts of Malawi, providing evidence of the impact of the intervention at scale. The findings show that the intervention improved student test scores by 0.1 standard deviations, equivalent to around eight weeks of additional learning, as well as improving progression rates. The outcomes were achieved primarily as a result of improvements in the provision of remedial classes.
    Keywords: Education Quality; Primary School; Education Policy; Field Experiment
    JEL: I21 I28 C93
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2024-05
  22. By: Iva Glišic (National Bank of Serbia)
    Abstract: The paper elaborates on machine and deep learning methods, as well as mixed data sampling regression models, used for GDP nowcasting. The aim is to select an adequate model that shows better performance on the data used. The paper provides an answer to the question of whether the use of deep learning methods can improve GDP nowcasting compared to traditional econometric methods, as well as whether the use of specific high-frequency indicators improves the quality of the models used. The paper examines the selection of adequate indicators – both official and those from alternative sources, presents the framework of mixed data sampling regression models and deep learning models used for nowcasting, and gives an assessment of two such models on the example of Serbian GDP. Serbia’s GDP was modelled for the period Q1 2016 – Q2 2023 and the end of the observed period (six quarters) was used for the forecast. Finally, two assessed models were compared – the mixed data sampling regression model and the LSTM neural network. A special focus is placed on ways to improve both models. The LSTM recurrent neural network model had a smaller forecast error, with the use of a combination of official and alternative (high-frequency) indicators, but the mixed data sampling regression model also proved to be a good tool for decision-makers, since its structure allows insight into the ongoing movements impacting GDP dynamics. The use of alternative indicators in nowcasting improved the projections through both presented models.
    Keywords: GDP, nowcasting, MIDAS, neural networks, high-frequency indicators
    JEL: C32 C45 C53
    Date: 2024–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:22
  23. By: Ho, Sin Yu; Beri, Parfait Bihkongnyuy
    Abstract: Although small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) finance and technical support have become critical economic development strategies for many countries in Africa and numerous micro-level studies have examined their effects on firm performance, evidence of how SMEs impact economic growth and the causal pathways remains mixed and largely debatable. Based on different strands of the literature, this study hypothesises a nonlinear relationship between SMEs and economic growth. Regressing growth on SME data as measured by the number of newly registered businesses in 40 African countries from 2006 to 2022, we find support for a nonlinear relation of an inverted U-shape. The results suggest that African countries may pursue policies aimed at boosting SME support as a tool for macro-level development. However, the transient effects of SMEs also suggest the need to consider strategies to ensure that its effects remain positive and sustainable over the long run. While policymakers could consider country-specific studies to understand and design innovative strategies to support the SME sector, more research is required on the types of SMEs and the conditions under which they may influence growth in Africa.
    Keywords: Small and medium-size enterprises, SMEs, entrepreneurship, economic growth
    JEL: M21 O3 O4 O47 P5 P52
    Date: 2024–10–17
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122552
  24. By: L\'aszl\'o Csat\'o
    Abstract: Swiss-system is an increasingly popular tournament format as it provides an attractive trade-off between the number of matches and ranking accuracy. However, few empirical research consider the optimal design of the Swiss-system. We contribute to this issue by investigating the fairness of Swiss-system chess competitions with an odd number of rounds, where half of the players have an extra game with white pieces. They are proven to enjoy a significant advantage and to be overrepresented among both the highest-ranked and outperforming players. Therefore, Swiss-system tournaments should have an even number of rounds and use a pairing mechanism that guarantees a balanced colour assignment.
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.19333
  25. By: Myriam Ghosn (Lebanese American University, Kraytem, 13-5053, Beirut, Lebanon Author-2-Name: Lara Moukalled Author-2-Workplace-Name: "Lebanese American University, Kraytem Beirut Lebanon " Author-3-Name: Dr. Silva Karloulian Author-3-Workplace-Name: "Lebanese American University, Kraytem, 13-5053, Beirut, Lebanon " Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: " Objective - This paper examines the role of technostress in the relationship between personality traits and employee turnover intentions. This study aims to fill a gap in the HR literature by exploring how technostress moderates this relationship. Methodology/Technique - This study employs a quantitative research method. A survey was distributed through online platforms such as LinkedIn, Instagram, and WhatsApp, and was completed by 299 participants. The data collected was analyzed to determine the relationships between personality traits, technostress, and employee turnover intentions. Findings - The study's results indicate a negative relationship between personality traits and employee turnover intentions. Furthermore, the findings suggest that technostress partially moderates the relationship between some personality traits and turnover intentions. Specifically, technostress does not fully moderate this relationship; its impact varies depending on the specific personality trait. Implications - The study provides valuable insights for managers and Human Resource Specialists about the consequences of technostress and its varying impacts based on different personality traits. This understanding can help in developing targeted strategies to manage technostress and reduce turnover intentions. Originality - This research introduces technostress as a crucial factor in HR literature, highlighting its role in the dynamics between personality traits and employee turnover intentions. The study offers a novel perspective by focusing on a Middle Eastern sample, thus broadening the geographical scope of existing research. Type of Paper - Empirical"
    Keywords: Personality Traits, Employee Turnover Intentions, Technostress, information, and communication technologies (ICTs).
    JEL: J24 J63 M54
    Date: 2024–09–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr335
  26. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that purchase mortgages from lenders, package them into securities to be sold to investors, and guarantee the timely payment of those securities, charging fees in exchange for that guarantee. By law and regulation, the GSEs must allocate a share of their purchases to mortgages made to low-income families and certain underserved populations. The details of that allocation are described in directives known as housing goals.
    JEL: G21 G28 H53 I38
    Date: 2024–11–13
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:60190

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