nep-inv New Economics Papers
on Investment
Issue of 2024–12–02
twenty-one papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Università degli Studi di Teramo


  1. Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers By Alvaro Silva; Julian di Giovanni; Muhammed A. Yildirim; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
  2. Cuba’s Deteriorating Food Security and Its Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports By Zahniser, Steven; Cardell, Lila; Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe; Valdes, Constanza
  3. Examining the Impact of the 2011 Japanese Earthquake on Japanese Production Networks in the Republic of Korea: A Firm-level Data Analysis By Jung HUR; Chin Hee HAHN
  4. Nordkoreas Rüstungspolitik als indirekte Sicherheitsbedrohung für Europa: Wie Pjöngjang seine Partnerschaften mit Moskau und Teheran ausbaut By Suh, Elisabeth
  5. Generation of synthetic financial time series by diffusion models By Tomonori Takahashi; Takayuki Mizuno
  6. Democratising Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting: The AGRICAF Approach By Rotem Zelingher
  7. Social Institutions and Low Birth Rates By Ho, Christine; Wang, Yutao
  8. Short-Time Work Extensions By Christina Brinkmann; Simon Jäger; Moritz Kuhn; Farzad Saidi; Stefanie Wolter
  9. Evaluating the Barriers to Turkey's Transition to Low-Carbon Energy By Sinan Güne; Gülnaz engül Güne; Yeim Tanrvermi
  10. Gender gaps in career opportunities: a look at graduates in the field of business and economics in Uruguay By Paola Azar; Alina Machado
  11. Vertical Evolution By Yin, Chun
  12. Caring Dads? Universal Childcare, Paternity Leave and Fathers' Involvement By Huebener, Mathias; Mahlbacher, Malin K.; Schmitz, Sophia
  13. Ciblage de l’inflation et réduction de la dette publique pour les pays émergents : une approche par effet de traitement By Mahmoud Arbouch
  14. Effects of a teacher training reform in Guatemala By Maria Pia Iocco
  15. Patrones de uso del tiempo de varones y mujeres en Uruguay. 2007- 2022 By Verónica Amarante; Paula Barro; Maira Colacce
  16. Multilateral Divisia Monetary Aggregates for the Euro Area By Neepa Gaekad; William A. Barnett
  17. A Growth Diagnostic of Kazakhstan By Douglas Barrios; Nikita Taniparti; Ricardo Hausmann; Clement Brenot; Can Soylu; Roukaya El Houda; Ekaterina Vashkinskaya; Felicia Belostecinic; Sophia Henn
  18. Accounting for the Growth of Real Wages of U.S. Manufacturing Production Workers since the Nineteenth Century By Pencavel, John H.
  19. Evaluating pricing health insurance in lower-income countries: A field experiment in India By Anup Malani; Cynthia Kinnan; Gabriella Conti; Kosuke Imai; Morgen Miller; Shailender Swaminathan; Alessandra Voena; Bartosz Woda
  20. Public insurance and marital outcomes: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansions By Tom Potoms; Sarah Rosenberg
  21. Focal pricing and pass-through By Francesca Arduini

  1. By: Alvaro Silva; Julian di Giovanni; Muhammed A. Yildirim (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
    Abstract: We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation.
    Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, China, COVID-19, Inflation
    Date: 2023–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:224
  2. By: Zahniser, Steven; Cardell, Lila; Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe; Valdes, Constanza
    Abstract: Cuba’s economy, which has been struggling since 2016 and fared poorly during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, has been unable to achieve a strong, sustained recovery and continues to face lower tourism revenues, decreased agricultural output, energy shortages, and double-digit inflation. This continuing economic downturn has limited Cuba’s ability to import agricultural products and weakened the country’s ability to produce its own food, thereby worsening food security in Cuba. To assess the extent of this problem, researchers at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS) used the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model. Results indicated that an estimated 12.8 percent (1.4 million people) in Cuba did not meet the daily threshold of 2, 100 calories per capita in 2023. Due to uncertainties regarding the measurement of Cuba’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the researchers considered a scenario with adjusted GDP per capita (based on the average GDP per capita for the Caribbean subregion) and estimated that 37.8 percent of the population (4.2 million people) was food insecure. Although Cuba’s declining agricultural production has increased the need for agricultural imports, the country’s ongoing challenges in earning foreign exchange through tourism, remittances, and exports limit its ability to do so. Under these circumstances, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba increased in 2021, 2022, and 2023 but were concentrated in a single commodity, chicken meat.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Political Economy, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:348092
  3. By: Jung HUR (Sogang University); Chin Hee HAHN (Gachon University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the 2011 Japanese earthquake on the sales and purchases of firms that have an intra-firm network with Japan. Using unique firm-level data of the Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea) and applying a difference-in-differences model, we find two results. First, following the 2011 Japanese earthquake, Japanese subsidiaries in Korea switched their intra-firm sales patterns with a reduction in intra-firm export and an increase in intra-firm domestic sales, compared to non-Japan foreign subsidiaries in Korea. Second, however, the sales or purchases of Korean mother firms with subsidiaries in Japan were negatively affected, compared to either non-foreign direct investment (FDI) firms or FDI firms without subsidiaries in Japan. The results imply that the Japanese subsidiaries in Korea had a relatively resilient and flexible intra-firm network, whilst the Korean firms with subsidiaries in Japan did not.
    Keywords: FDI firms, Intra-firm Sales and Purchases
    JEL: F10 F23 E32
    Date: 2024–09–26
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-25
  4. By: Suh, Elisabeth
    Abstract: Spätestens seitdem Russland nordkoreanische Artillerie und ballistische Raketen gegen die Ukraine eingesetzt hat, ist offensichtlich, dass Pjöngjang weit über Nordostasien hinaus Konflikte schürt. Die Qualität, mit der Nordkorea Europas Sicherheit und Stabilität mittelbar bedroht, ist dabei jedoch neu: Mit seinen Munitionslieferungen für Kriege in der Ukraine und im Nahen Osten unterstützt Pjöngjang aktiv Russlands und Irans sicherheitspolitische Ziele. Nordkorea vergrößert damit seinen strategischen Wert für Moskau und Teheran. Dies ermöglicht es dem Land wiederum, seine Partnerschaften im Dienste seiner eigenen Interessen forciert auszubauen und gemeinsam seine überregionalen Netzwerke für Sanktionsbrüche und Schmuggel zu erweitern und abzusichern. Um Pjöngjangs Praktiken zu verstehen, Ansatzpunkte für Einwirkungsmöglichkeiten zu identifizieren und zu nutzen, braucht die EU mehr Informationen und internationale Zusammenarbeit.
    Keywords: Nukleare Bewaffnung, Atomwaffenprogramm, Raketenprogramm, Mittelstreckenraketen, Kurzstreckenraketen, Artilleriemunition, Artilleriegeschosse, Waffenlieferung, Munition, Drohnen, Halbleiter, Russland, Iran, Hamas, Hisbollah, Huthi, Partnerschaftsvertrag
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:305240
  5. By: Tomonori Takahashi; Takayuki Mizuno
    Abstract: Despite its practical significance, generating realistic synthetic financial time series is challenging due to statistical properties known as stylized facts, such as fat tails, volatility clustering, and seasonality patterns. Various generative models, including generative adversarial networks (GANs) and variational autoencoders (VAEs), have been employed to address this challenge, although no model yet satisfies all the stylized facts. We alternatively propose utilizing diffusion models, specifically denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs), to generate synthetic financial time series. This approach employs wavelet transformation to convert multiple time series (into images), such as stock prices, trading volumes, and spreads. Given these converted images, the model gains the ability to generate images that can be transformed back into realistic time series by inverse wavelet transformation. We demonstrate that our proposed approach satisfies stylized facts.
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.18897
  6. By: Rotem Zelingher
    Abstract: Ensuring food security is a critical global challenge, particularly for low-income countries where food prices impact the access to nutritious food. The volatility of global agricultural commodity (AC) prices exacerbates food insecurity, with international trade restrictions and market disruptions further complicating the situation. Despite online platforms for monitoring food prices, there is a significant gap in providing detailed explanations and forecasts accessible to non-specialists. To address this, we propose the Agricultural Commodity Analysis and Forecasts (AGRICAF) methodology, integrating explainable machine learning (XML) and econometric techniques to analyse and forecast global agricultural commodity prices up to one year ahead, dynamically adapting to different forecast horizons. This innovative integration allows us to model complex interactions and dynamics while providing clear, interpretable results. This paper demonstrates how AGRICAF can be used, applying it to three major agricultural commodities - maize, soybean, and wheat - and explaining how different factors impact prices across various months and forecast horizons. By facilitating access to accurate and interpretable medium-term forecasts of AC prices, AGRICAF can contribute to developing a fair and sustainable food system.
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.20363
  7. By: Ho, Christine (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Wang, Yutao (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: We document three cross-sectional stylized facts on labor supply and family formation. First, female labor force participation (FLFP) and total fertility rates (TFRs) are much lower in Eastern societies compared to Western economies. Second, labor hours and the gender pay gap are much higher in the East than in the West. Third, parents invest more on schooling in Eastern societies compared to Western economies. To account for these features, we develop and estimate a rich heterogeneous-agent model with endogenous marriage, fertility, labor supply, and time and money investment in children. Estimates using data from South Korea and the United States highlight the importance of gender norms and long work hours practices in driving down FLFP while child quality mores drive down fertility in South Korea. Our results suggest that a multi-pronged policy approach or reductions in the gender pay gap may help boost both FLFP and fertility in East Asia.
    Keywords: Female labor supply; fertility; child quality; gender norms; long work hours
    JEL: D13 E24 H31 J13 J16 J22
    Date: 2024–10–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_011
  8. By: Christina Brinkmann; Simon Jäger; Moritz Kuhn; Farzad Saidi; Stefanie Wolter
    Abstract: Governments use short-time work (STW) schemes to subsidize job preservation during crises. We study the take-up of STW and its effects on worker outcomes and firm behavior using German administrative data from 2009 to 2021. Establishments utilizing STW tend to have higher wages, be larger, and have falling employment even before STW take-up. More adverse selection occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Within firms, STW is targeted towards workers likely to stay even in the absence of STW. To study the effects of STW, we examine two dimensions of policy variation: STW eligibility and extensions of potential benefit duration (PBD). Workers above retirement age, ineligible for STW, have identical employment trajectories compared to their slightly younger, eligible peers when their establishment takes up STW. A 2012 reform doubling PBD from 6 to 12 months did not secure employment at treated firms 12 months after take-up, with minimal heterogeneity across worker characteristics. However, treated and control firms experienced substantial and persistent differences in their wage trajectories, with control firms without extensions lowering wages compared to treated firms. Across cells, larger wage effects corresponded with smaller employment effects, consistent with downward wage flexibility preventing layoffs and substituting for the employment protection effects of STW. Our research designs reveal that STW extensions in Germany did not significantly improve short- or long-term employment outcomes.
    JEL: E24 G32 H20 J2 J63 J65
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33112
  9. By: Sinan Güne; Gülnaz engül Güne; Yeim Tanrvermi
    Abstract: The most crucial issue that urgently needs to be addressed for the problems of global warming and the greenhouse effect is carbon emissions. Carbon emissions are extensively generated throughout all stages of the building life cycle, from material production to building design and operation. Therefore, it is essential to rapidly develop and adopt low-carbon design methods. The aim of this study is to identify the challenges faced by Turkey in the transition to low-carbon energy, prioritize these challenges, and highlight the key factors of strategic importance for the effective implementation of energy policies. In the initial phase of the study, challenges in transitioning to low-carbon energy were classified through a literature review, and criteria were established. Subsequently, these criteria were compared through a focus group study. Binary comparison results were then used to obtain an equation based on weighting through the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method, determining the challenges in Turkey's energy sector and their priorities for transitioning to low-carbon energy. The findings are crucial for understanding and producing strategic solutions to the obstacles in achieving energy-efficient transitions in Turkey. Furthermore, the results of the study encompass insights for transitioning to high-energy performance buildings. The analyses conducted to identify the key factors in Turkey's transition to low-carbon energy are strategically important for ensuring the effective implementation of energy policies. The outcomes of this study will serve as a valuable guide for policymakers and industry experts to comprehend and address the difficulties encountered in Turkey's energy transformation.
    Keywords: energy policies; Energy transition; Fuzzy AHP; low carbon energy
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2024–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-235
  10. By: Paola Azar (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Alina Machado (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: Unlike developed countries, male and female university graduates in Uruguay are equally sorted into the fields of accountancy, business and economics. In turn, as in those regions, these people begin their labor market tracks with similar academic characteristics and labor positions. But, does this imply they develop convergent career paths? Using data on academic and labor market performance of cohorts graduated in 2012, we apply ordered probit models to analyze gender differences in job positions at graduation and subsequent years. We find that gender does not account for differences either in university marks or in time to degree or job positions at graduation and 4 years later. However, it emerges as a strong predictor of job positions 7 years afterwards. At that stage, the chances of reaching the upper ranked jobs is 10 percentage points higher for men than for women while female probabilities of achieving higher positions are even lower when children are present. Besides, soon after degree, women have a significantly lower probability than men of full-time working and show a greater appreciation of job stability and free time.
    Keywords: Graduates, Economics, Gender, Business, Labor market career
    JEL: J16 J24 J45
    Date: 2024–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-10-24
  11. By: Yin, Chun
    Abstract: This book argues that vertical relationships, where the existence of realities are interdependent, form the bedrock of the objective world, contrasting with the traditional horizontal (materialistic) worldview, where entities exist independently. A method to describe these vertical relationships is proposed. By reducing systems to interaction networks, "survival of the independent (closed)" is concluded as the fundamental principle governing the evolution of systems. This principle is further applied in analying life systems, consciousness, and social systems.
    Date: 2024–10–14
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:6b957
  12. By: Huebener, Mathias (Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB)); Mahlbacher, Malin K. (University of Mainz); Schmitz, Sophia (Federal Institute for Population Research)
    Abstract: Increasing fathers' involvement in childcare is seen as an important strategy to reduce women's child penalties in the labour market. However, very little is known about the extent to which family policies can enhance fathers' engagement in domestic work. This paper examines the impact of the combined availability of universal childcare and paternity leave on fathers' involvement. We exploit quasi-experimental variation in the regional availability of childcare for children under three, resulting from the introduction of a universal childcare entitlement in Germany. We estimate generalised difference-in-differences models and confirm that children enter childcare significantly earlier. Fathers become more likely to take paternity leave with the expectation of mothers entering the labour market sooner. Yet, this leave is mainly taken for the minimum period, together with the mother, and towards the end of the first year. Fathers' subsequent roles as caregivers, as well as their labour market outcomes, remain largely unaffected. Overall, increased childcare availability primarily substitutes maternal care; significant family policy efforts could not immediately alter fathers' caregiving responsibilities within the family.
    Keywords: public childcare, family policies, parental leave, paternal involvement
    JEL: J13 J16 J18 J22 D13
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17422
  13. By: Mahmoud Arbouch
    Abstract: L’objectif de ce papier est d’essayer d’examiner si l’implémentation du cadre de ciblage de l’inflation par la banque centrale, permet une réduction de la dette publique dans les pays émergents, à travers l'effet disciplinant du ciblage sur la conduite de la politique budgétaire en général. Pour ce faire, la méthode d’évaluation d’impact utilisée est l’appariement par score de propension ou Propensity Score Matching (PSM), qui permet l’évaluation de l’effet de traitement du ciblage d’inflation sur la discipline budgétaire, en termes de réduction de la dette publique, dans les pays émergents ayant adopté ce cadre de politique monétaire. L’échantillon d’analyse comprend 40 pays émergents, dont 19 sont cibleurs de l’inflation et 21 non-cibleurs. Les résultats empiriques montrent qu’en moyenne, l’adoption du ciblage de l’inflation a eu un effet significatif sur la réduction de la dette publique.
    Date: 2022–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp_13-22
  14. By: Maria Pia Iocco (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, BN1 9SL, UK, Economics & Institute for Policy Research (IPR), University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of an educational reform in Guatemala that modified the training of primary teachers from three years at the secondary level (grades 10 to 12 of a diversified cycle in high school) to a combination of two years of high school and three at a university, obtaining a Bachelor of Education (B.Ed.) before being able to apply to become a primary school teacher. Exploiting the timing of the implementation and an unaffected group of students as controls, I analyse the effects at the student levels in terms of enrolment and performance during their high school years and the effects on official teachers’ colleges regarding performance due to the opportunity of financial aid for their students. Results show a decrease in enrolment for primary teaching students, negative but not always significant results in math, and mixed results in reading. Besides, I also observed a change in the characteristics of aspiring educators. Official teachers’ colleges experienced an initial increase in their primary teaching performance compared to other types of schools, but the effect faded after a couple of years, becoming negative
    Keywords: teacher training, teacher recruiting, policy reform, primary teachers, Guatemala
    JEL: I21 I25 I28
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0624
  15. By: Verónica Amarante (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Paula Barro (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Maira Colacce (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes trends in gender inequalities in time use in Uruguay between 2007 and 2021 based on three time-use surveys (2007, 2013 and 2021). The results show that, while gender gaps have slowly narrowed, women continue to have a higher unpaid workload and a lower paid workload than men. These inequalities are larger in households with children and at lower socioeconomic levels. Despite the persistence of these overall patterns, some interesting changes are detected over the period. The study reveals increases in women’s paid work alongside decreases in hours of unpaid work. This decline in women's unpaid work is due to a decrease in domestic work between 2007-2013, and a decrease in care work between 2013-2021. The latter appears to be primarily associated with a decrease in fertility rates and the extension of early childhood care services. There is also a convergence in care patterns among women of different educational levels. Finally, an increase in men's housework is detected, with a significant increase for those between 60 and 74 years old. It is important to continue monitoring time use trends and to deepen the analysis of the factors that condition gender inequalities to generate relevant information for public policy design.
    Keywords: Gender inequalities, Time-use surveys, Unpaid work
    JEL: J2 D13 J16
    Date: 2024–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-11-24
  16. By: Neepa Gaekad (Department of Economics, State University of New York, Fredonia, NY 14063, USA); William A. Barnett (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA and Center for Financial Stability, New York City)
    Abstract: Keywords: In light of the "two-pillar strategy" of the European Central Bank, good measures of aggregated money across countries in the Euro area are policy relevant. The objective of this paper is to focus on the multilateral Divisia monetary aggregates for the Euro area. Based on theory developed in Barnett (2007), this paper produced the multilateral Divisia monetary aggregates for the economic union of all the 19 Euro area countries, EMU-19, (and the Divisia monetary aggregates for the individual 19 Euro area countries), which is a theoretically consistent measure of monetary services for the Euro area monetary union. The multilateral Divisia monetary aggregate indices for EMU-19 is found to provide a better signal of recession, when compared to the corresponding simple sum monetary aggregates.
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202416
  17. By: Douglas Barrios (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Nikita Taniparti (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab); Clement Brenot (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Can Soylu; Roukaya El Houda (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ekaterina Vashkinskaya; Felicia Belostecinic (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Sophia Henn (Center for International Development at Harvard University)
    Abstract: This Growth Diagnostic Report was generated as part of a research engagement between the Growth Lab at Harvard University and the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) between June 2021 and December 2022. The purpose of the engagement was to formulate evidence-based policy options to address critical issues facing the economy of Kazakhstan through innovative frameworks such as growth diagnostics and economic complexity. This report is accompanied by the Economic Complexity Report that applies findings from this report on economy-wide challenges to growth and diversification in order to formulate attractive and feasible opportunities for diversification. Kazakhstan faces multifaceted challenges to sustainable and inclusive growth: macroeconomic uncertainty, an uneven economic playing field, and difficulties in acquiring productive capabilities, agglomerating them locally, and accessing export markets. Underlying Kazakhstan’s transformational growth in the last two decades—during which real GDP per capita multiplied by 2.5x—are two periods that underscore how Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory has been correlated with oil and gas dynamics. The early and mid-2000s characterized by the global commodity supercycle led to an expansion of the economy upwards of 8% annually, with a mild slowdown during the global financial crisis. In 2014, Kazakhstan’s growth slowed with the collapse of commodity prices, and alternative engines of growth have not been strong enough to fend against volatility since. These trends, along with growing uncertainty in the long-run demand of oil and gas, continue to highlight the limitations of relying on natural resources to drive development. As in the experience of other major oil producers, diversification of Kazakhstan’s non-oil economy is a critical pathway to drive a new era of sustainable and inclusive growth and mitigate the impacts of commodity price shocks on the country’s economy. Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory demonstrates that the country has enough oil to suffer symptoms of Dutch disease, but not enough to position it as a reliable engine of growth in the future. Development of non-oil activities has been a policy objective of the government of Kazakhstan for some time, but previous efforts for target sectors have failed to generate sufficient exports and investments to produce alternative engines of growth. This report characterizes the relationship between growth, industrial policy, and the constraints to diversification in Kazakhstan. It utilizes the growth diagnostics framework to understand why efforts to diversify into non-oil tradables has been challenging. The report proposes a growth syndrome to explain the constraints preventing Kazakhstan from achieving productive diversification and sustainable growth. This report is organized in six sections, including a brief introduction. Section 2 provides an overview of the methodological approach to the Growth Diagnostics analysis. Section 3 describes Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory and macroeconomic performance, as well as the motivations behind pursuing a diversification strategy to strengthen the non-oil economy. Section 4 summarizes three features of the country that manifest in a set of economy-wide constraints to growth and diversification. Section 5 analyzes each of the identified constraints in detail, describing their dynamics and breaking down the aspects that appear to be binding. Section 6 concludes by suggesting potential policy guidelines towards alleviation of the identified constraints.
    Keywords: Growth Diagnostics, Kazakhstan
    Date: 2023–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:206
  18. By: Pencavel, John H. (Stanford University)
    Abstract: Why have the real (consumption) wages of U.S. workers risen since the nineteenth century? Some economists answer that increases in real wages have followed increases in labor productivity over time. In this paper, this hypothesized association is confronted with annual observations of changes in the wages and changes in the labor productivity of U.S. manufacturing production workers from the end of the 19th century to the beginning of the 21st century. Correlates with changes in real wages in addition to productivity are considered including statutory legislation, trade unionism, and the state of the business cycle.
    Keywords: real wages, labor productivity, trade unions, legislation, monopsony
    JEL: J31 N31 N32
    Date: 2024–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17326
  19. By: Anup Malani (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Cynthia Kinnan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Gabriella Conti (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Kosuke Imai (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Morgen Miller (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Shailender Swaminathan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Alessandra Voena (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Bartosz Woda (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Date: 2024–07–29
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:24/33
  20. By: Tom Potoms (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Sarah Rosenberg (Lund University)
    Date: 2024–11–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:24/53
  21. By: Francesca Arduini (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Date: 2024–08–21
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:24/37

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