|
on Investment |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University); David Weil (Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | Recent wage growth at the bottom of the earnings distribution in the U.S. has reversed a decades-long trend of widening wage inequality. Numerous state and local minimum wage increases have overtaken an effectively non-binding federal minimum, and robust labor demand in the post-pandemic recovery drove wage growth in the low-wage sector. An increasingly pervasive phenomenon over this same period (2014-2023) is the use of company-wide, voluntary minimum wages (VMWs) by private employers, including some of the largest U.S. retailers. We use anonymized payroll data for thousands of firms collected by a major credit bureau to study the effects of these policies on large retailers’ own wages and employment, as well as spillover effects onto other employers in shared labor markets, variously defined. Using stacked event studies centered around multiple VMW events and a continuous treatment variable defined as the gap between local area wages and the company minimum, we find that VMWs result in sizable wage increases and reductions in turnover at the companies that implemented them. Turning to wages at other companies, including those connected to the large retailer by worker flows, we estimate precise, economically negligible spillover effects. Despite the decline in separations from companies with voluntary minimums, overall hiring rates at connected employers do not decline, consistent with substitutability across new hires. Although voluntary minimum wage policies have affected over 3 million jobs among the largest retailers, their impact on the broader labor market is limited. |
| JEL: | J31 J42 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:333 |
| By: | Koffi Selom Agbokanzo (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, EGEI - Éthique et Gouvernance de l’Entreprise et des Institutions - UCO - Université Catholique de l'Ouest) |
| Abstract: | [À propos, pp. 4-5] "Nous savons ou nous devinons ce qu'a représenté le château de Chambord pour les princes qui l'ont habité, pour les illustres qui l'ont fréquenté, et pour tous ceux qui ont relaté leurs impressions de voyage et de séjour au cours des siècles passés. Nous savons ce qu'aujourd'hui les touristes disent de leur expérience de visite. Mais que sait-on des perceptions et des représentations de celles et ceux pour qui Chambord est l'élément majeur, à la fois emblématique et concret du paysage dans lequel ils habitent, vivent et travaillent, parfois depuis de nombreuses générations ? C'est à cette question, jamais posée jusqu'alors, à laquelle Chambord et nous vient répondre". [...] | Pierre Dubreuil, Directeur général du Domaine national de Chambord | Gilles Clément, Président de la Communauté de communes du Grand Chambord et maire de Mont-près-Chambord |
| Keywords: | Chambord, destination, habitants, image, représentations, résidents, tourisme |
| Date: | 2024–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04715759 |
| By: | Overman, Henry G.; Xu, Xiaowei |
| Abstract: | We consider disparities across local labour markets in Great Britain. Disparities in wages and employment rates are large and persistent, although smaller than 20 years ago. These disparities largely reflect the concentration of high-skilled workers, who would have better labour market outcomes wherever they live. This concentration is driven by differences in the demand for, and supply of, skills and the self-reinforcing interaction between the two, which is particularly pronounced in the highest-wage areas and at the upper end of the wage distribution. The highest-paid jobs are concentrated in London and a handful of other areas and wage disparities are mostly driven by the higher-paid. Places that offer higher earnings also have higher rents, which may entirely offset gains in earnings. Consistent with this, people in higher-paid places are no happier than those in lower-paid places. |
| Keywords: | spatial inequality; place; labour market |
| JEL: | R14 J01 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121453 |
| By: | Mickaël Degoulet (INT - Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Louis-Matis Willem (ECM - École Centrale de Marseille); Christelle Baunez (INT - Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Luchini (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrick A Pintus (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Most studies assessing animal decision-making under risk rely on probabilities that are typically larger than 10%. To study Decision-Making in uncertain conditions, we explore a novel experimental and modelling approach that aims at measuring the extent to which rats are sensitive - and how they respond - to outcomes that are both rare (probabilities smaller than 1%) and extreme in their consequences (deviations larger than 10 times the standard error). In a four-armed bandit task, stochastic gains (sugar pellets) and losses (time-out punishments) are such that extremely large - but rare - outcomes materialize or not depending on the chosen options. All rats feature both limited diversification, mixing two options out of four, and sensitivity to rare and extreme outcomes despite their infrequent occurrence, by combining options with avoidance of extreme losses (Black Swans) and exposure to extreme gains (Jackpots). Notably, this sensitivity turns out to be one-sided for the main phenotype in our sample: it features a quasi-complete avoidance of Black Swans, so as to escape extreme losses almost completely, which contrasts with an exposure to Jackpots that is partial only. The flip side of observed choices is that they entail smaller gains and larger losses in the frequent domain compared to alternatives. We have introduced sensitivity to Black Swans and Jackpots in a new class of augmented Reinforcement Learning models and we have estimated their parameters using observed choices and outcomes for each rat. Adding such specific sensitivity results in a good fit of the selected model - and simulated behaviors that are close - to behavioral observations, whereas a standard Q-Learning model without sensitivity is rejected for almost all rats. This model reproducing the main phenotype suggests that frequent outcomes are treated separately from rare and extreme ones through different weights in Decision-Making. |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04741042 |
| By: | Chand, Tara; Weiß, Martin; Gutzeit, Julian |
| Abstract: | Taylor et al. (2023) explored the impact of identity cues on online behavior, employing a large-scale field experiment on a social news aggregation website. Findings reveal that identity cues significantly influence how individuals form opinions and engage with online content, accounting for 28% to 61% of variation in voting associated with commenters' production, reputation, and reciprocity. The results highlight the role of identity cues in perpetuating social content evaluation disparities and suggest anonymized content votes could enhance overall content quality on social platforms. In the replication analysis of this study, we utilized the provided script on the same data, which was provided by the paper's author following non-disclosure agreements. Further the robustness of the results was also tested after applying a mixed effects model instead of the linear probability model. Our replication confirmed the overall reproducibility of the results using the provided script, but there were notable changes in the estimates. In our analysis, the variation in individuals forming opinions and engaging with online content, as measured by voting associated with commenters' production, reputation, and reciprocity, ranged from 15% to 60% due to identity cues. This indicates that a few effects are somewhat smaller than in the original study. Moreover, when using our alternative analytic approach, the results remained generally robust, but there were exceptions. Specifically, the model assessing the impact of identity cues on individuals in voting associated with commenters' production yielded different results: We generally found stronger evidence in form of higher statistical significance for the claims of the authors. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:172 |
| By: | Mr. Serhan Cevik; Tales Padilha |
| Abstract: | Soft power is difficult to measure directly, and existing indicators—mostly subjective and not always transparent—fail to take into account the multidimensional nature of soft power. In this paper, we introduce a new comprehensive Global Soft Power Index (GSPI) composed of six dimensions for a broad sample of countries over a long span of time. The proposed framework allows for comparisons not only at the “headline” level of the GSPI, but also at the level of the sub-indices, which in turn helps identify and study how countries differ at a granular level of soft power. In a final step of the analysis, we present a possible macro-financial application to investigate the relationship between soft power and exchange rates. The results indicate that some dimensions of the GSPI play an important role in explaining exchange rate volatility. Overall, the composite GSPI presented in this paper provides a systematic approach to measure soft power along its multiple dimensions. By capturing the matrix of soft power characteristics, the GSPI offers significant advantages in comparative analysis of soft power across countries and over time. |
| Keywords: | Soft power; composite indicators; comparative analysis; principal component analysis; K-Means clustering; exchange rate volatility |
| Date: | 2024–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/212 |
| By: | Theophilus G. Baidoo; Ashley Obeng |
| Abstract: | Inflation remains a persistent challenge for many African countries. This research investigates the critical role of machine learning (ML) in understanding and managing inflation in Ghana, emphasizing its significance for the country's economic stability and growth. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning from 2010 to 2022, the study aims to employ advanced ML models, particularly those adept in time series forecasting, to predict future inflation trends. The methodology is designed to provide accurate and reliable inflation forecasts, offering valuable insights for policymakers and advocating for a shift towards data-driven approaches in economic decision-making. This study aims to significantly advance the academic field of economic analysis by applying machine learning (ML) and offering practical guidance for integrating advanced technological tools into economic governance, ultimately demonstrating ML's potential to enhance Ghana's economic resilience and support sustainable development through effective inflation management. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.05630 |
| By: | Tomas Broukal (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czechia); Petr Jansky (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czechia); Miroslav Palansky (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czechia & Tax Justice Network, London, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | We develop a methodology to decompose the tax revenue impact of the global minimum tax introduced in 2024 into several components and quantify its potential impact on profit shifting. We apply it to 34 thousand multinational-country observations from tax returns, financial statements and country-by-country reports of all multinationals active in Slovakia. We find that the global minimum tax has the potential to decrease profit shifting by most multinationals, which are on average likely to pay higher effective tax rates in most countries worldwide post-reform. We find that Slovak corporate tax revenues will increase by 4%, with half of the increase due to its minimum top-up taxes. The other half of the increase is corporate income tax on profits that will no longer be shifted out of the country. We expect the global minimum tax to target 49% of previously shifted profits. |
| Keywords: | global minimum tax, profit shifting, multinationals, tax avoidance |
| JEL: | H25 H26 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2024_39 |
| By: | Shahnaz Parsaeian (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a Stein-like combined estimator for large heterogeneous panel data models under common structural breaks. The model allows for cross-sectional dependence through a general multifactor error structure. By utilizing the common correlated effects (CCE) estimation technique, we propose a Stein-like combined estimator of the CCE full-sample estimator (i.e., estimation using both the pre-break and post-break observations) and the CCE post-break estimator (i.e., estimation using only the post-break sample observations). The proposed Stein-like combined estimator benefits from exploiting the pre-break sample observations. We derive the optimal combination weight by minimizing the asymptotic risk. We show the superiority of the CCE Stein-like combined estimator over the CCE post-break estimator in terms of the asymptotic risk. Further, we establish the asymptotic properties of the CCE mean group Stein-like combined estimator. The finite sample performance of our proposed estimator is investigated using Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application of predicting the output growth of industrialized countries. |
| Keywords: | Common correlated effects, Cross-sectional dependence, Heterogeneous panels, Structural breaks. |
| JEL: | C13 C23 C33 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202409 |
| By: | Simionescu, Mihaela; Schneider, Nicolas; Gavurova, Beata |
| Abstract: | Transmission channels from monetary shocks might be identified by studying the features of the production network. The main aim of this paper is to provide insights about the role of production network into the propagation of monetary policy shocks in G7 economies. Time-varying Bayesian vector-autoregressions were built to compute impulse response functions of output to monetary policy shocks in these countries. Panel Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Bound Approach based on Mean-Group estimator was used to assess the long and short-run connections between production network structure and various shocks associated to monetary policy in the period 2000–2018 and during the Great Recession (2007–2009). The results show that upstreamness is more significant than downstremness in the period 2000–2018, while the financial sector significantly contributed to the spread of various monetary shocks during the Great Recession. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VAR model; monetary policy shocks; panel ARDL model; production network |
| JEL: | C51 C53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125580 |
| By: | Zahniser, Steven; Zeng, Wendy; Dong, Fengxia; Ivanic, Maros; Husby, Megan; Pham, Xuan; Meade, Douglas |
| Abstract: | USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) produces the Agricultural Trade Multipliers (ATMs)—a data product that provides annual estimates of the economic output and number of jobs supported by U.S. agricultural trade, with detail for 124 product groups. The ATMs are a resource for government agencies, academics, and other stakeholders to estimate the effect that U.S. agricultural trade has on the farm and nonfarm sectors of the U.S. economy and the contribution of U.S. agricultural exports to employment and economic output. In 2021, ERS researchers overhauled the computer programming used to estimate the multipliers to implement an approach that was more streamlined and automated while retaining the structure of the existing model. This bulletin outlines the methodology used in the new programming to access the data needed to estimate the ATMs and to utilize that information to calculate the estimates. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerstb:347597 |
| By: | Wilhelm Breuer; Johannes Kroog |
| Abstract: | The paper compares the optimal portfolio constellations of listed real estate companies (LRE) with a pure market weighting over a time horizon from 2008 to 2023. The companies represented were selected according to market capitalisation and geographical criteria. The ten largest companies from each of the regions North America, the eurozone, Asia-Pacific and the UK were compiled in rolling five-year time frames according to the Sharpe ratio-optimised allocation. In a second step, the selected companies were structured according to their asset classes Retail, Residential, Office, Industrial, Diversified and Specialty and analysed using the same method. It can be seen that active portfolio management generally has a better risk-return profile than simply market-weighted portfolios. The risk component in particular can be significantly reduced. In comparison, the eurozone achieves the best risk-adjusted performance. Optimisation can increase the Sharpe ratio here by an average of +25.5%. In a comparison by asset class, companies with a residential focus stand out with the highest Sharpe ratio. By optimising the portfolio constellation, the Sharpe ratio can be increased by an average of 42.3%. |
| Keywords: | atcive portfolio management; CAPM; Listed Real Estate; Portfolio Selection |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-124 |
| By: | Luca Cattani (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Giulio Pedrini (Kore University of Enna); Dorel Manitiu (Alma Laurea Consortium) |
| Abstract: | This research examines the changing landscape of academic curricula, with a specific focus on the integration of sustainable development topics into university programs. As the provision of “green skills†and the creation of “green jobs†gain momentum in the sustainability debate at the European and international levels, we aim to analyze unequal labor market (LM) outcomes among graduates resulting from the expansion of green curricula. To address the current gap in research, we use data from the AlmaLaurea Interuniversity Consortium, the Italian Ministry of University and Research, and the Italian Labour Force Survey, conducting a panel fixed effects analysis to evaluate the impact of environmentally focused programs on various graduates' LM outcomes. Our findings shed light on the role of sustainability-oriented higher education in shaping local labor market outcomes and, consequently, inequality among graduates. Our research contributes to the broader discourse on unequal graduate outcomes by offering insights into the consequences of incorporating environmental sustainability into higher education programs. By focusing on the Italian context, we provide new evidence on the potential unintended social consequences of sustainability-oriented higher education policies in the context of a just transition. |
| Keywords: | sustainability, higher education graduates’ employability, local labour markets |
| JEL: | O30 J24 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp55 |
| By: | Panle Jia Barwick; Myrto Kalouptsidi; Nahim B. Zahur |
| Abstract: | Industrial policy has been used throughout history in some form or other by most countries. Yet, it remains one of the most contentious issues among policymakers and economists alike. In part, this is because the empirical evidence on whether and how it should be implemented remains slim. Scant data on government subsidies, conflicting theoretical arguments, and the need to account for governments’ short and long-run objectives, render research particularly challenging. In this article, we outline a theory-based empirical methodology that relies on estimating an industry equilibrium model to measure hidden subsidies, assess their welfare consequences for the domestic and global economy, as well as evaluate the effectiveness of different policy designs. We illustrate this approach using the global shipbuilding industry as a prototypical example of an industry targeted by industrial policy, especially in periods of heavy industrialization. Just in the past century, Europe, followed by Japan, then South Korea, and more recently China, developed national shipbuilding programs to propel their firms to global leaders. Success has been mixed across programs, certainly by welfare metrics, and sometimes even by growth metrics. We use our methodology on China to dissect the impact of such programs, what made them more or less successful, and how we can justify why governments have chosen shipbuilding as a target. |
| JEL: | L50 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33043 |
| By: | Bulent Guler; Amanda M. Michaud |
| Abstract: | We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in evaluating the effects of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality, and labor markets. Individuals’ past choices regarding crime and employment under previous policies have persistent consequences that limit their responsiveness to policy changes. We provide novel cohort evidence supporting this mechanism. A quantitative model of this theory, calibrated using restricted administrative data, predicts nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration that are distinct across property and violent crime and similar to the U.S. experience after 1980. Increased inequality and declining employment accompany these changes, with unequal impacts across generations. |
| Keywords: | Inequality trends; incarceration; Dynamic policy evaluation |
| JEL: | E24 E69 |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:98972 |
| By: | FUJII Daisuke |
| Abstract: | Recent events of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US-China decoupling have shown that key trade policies today are shaped by geopolitical risks and economic security concerns. In Japan, economic security in increasingly complex global supply chains is also being discussed as an important policy theme, though quantitative evidence remains scarce. This paper aims to quantify the impact of trade disruptions with China on the Japanese economy. To do so, I develop a general equilibrium model of production networks with international trade, which incorporates non-unitary elasticity of substitution across intermediate inputs. The model is calibrated using large-scale firm-level network data from Japan. The aggregate impact of trade disruption is substantial in the short run but becomes milder in the long run. If both exports and imports with China decline by 90%, real GDP is projected to drop by 7% within a year. Additionally, import disruptions cause more severe damage than export disruptions. There is significant sectoral heterogeneity in the negative impact of trade disruptions, depending on sectoral exposure to trade, the share of intermediate inputs, and position within production networks. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24073 |
| By: | Jin Seo Cho (Yonsei University); Peter C. B. Phillips (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | In GMM estimation, it is well known that if the moment dimension grows with the sample size, the asymptotics of GMM differ from the standard finite dimensional case. The present work examines the asymptotic properties of infinite dimensional GMM estimation when the weight matrix is formed by inverting Brownian motion or Brownian bridge covariance kernels. These kernels arise in econometric work such as minimum Cramer-von Mises distance estimation when testing distributional specification. The properties of GMM estimation are studied under different environments where the moment conditions converge to a smooth Gaussian or non-differentiable Gaussian process. Conditions are also developed for testing the validity of the moment conditions by means of a suitably constructed J-statistic. In case these conditions are invalid we propose another test called the U-test. As an empirical application of these infinite dimensional GMM procedures the evolution of cohort labor income inequality indices is studied using the Continuous Work History Sample database. The findings show that labor income inequality indices are maximized at early career years, implying that economic policies to reduce income inequality should be more effective when designed for workers at an early stage in their career cycles. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2411 |
| By: | Aghion, Philippe; Bergeaud, Antonin; Lequien, Matthieu; Melitz, Marc J.; Zuber, Thomas |
| Abstract: | We decompose the “China shock” into two components that induce different adjustments for firms exposed to Chinese exports: an output shock affecting firms selling goods that compete with similar imported Chinese goods, and an input supply shock affecting firms using inputs similar to the imported Chinese goods. Combining French accounting, customs, and patent information at the firm level, we show that the output shock is detrimental to firms’ sales, employment, and innovation. Moreover, this negative impact is concentrated in low-productivity firms. On the other hand, the impact of the input supply shock is reversed. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123934 |
| By: | Song, Haoran; Fan, Siyuan; Han, Qin; jiang, Feng; Wu, Yibo |
| Abstract: | Objective To develop a more concise and practical tool to assess public service motivation for the whole population. (to make up for the fact that the previous tools in this field are too long and only applicable to specific groups). Methods Adopting a cross-sectional design, 45, 830 respondents from mainland China, Hong Kong and Macao completed the PSM-SF, from which we randomly selected 1000 participants. Combining ant colony optimization and factor loadings for item selection. Psychometric properties of the PSM-SF assessed included internal consistency reliability, content validity, structural validity, convergent validity and discriminant validity. Latent profile analysis (LPA) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were undertaken to calculate the cutoff values of the scale. Findings We identified four dimensions: Attraction to Public Service (APS), Commitment to Public Values (CPV), Compassion (COM), Self-Sacrifice (SS), two items were kept in each dimension. The scale's Cronbach's alpha = 0.882, SCVI/Ave = 0.94, χ²/df = 4.412, RMSEA = 0.058. The cutoff score is 27 points. Conclusion The PSM-SF is a valid instrument for measuring public service motivation and suitable for measuring the general population. Promoting the use of the tool can identify the lack of public service personnel in various scenarios in China and take timely measures to promote social stability, shared responsibility, and shared resources. Key words Public service motivation; latent profile analysis; ant colony optimization; cutoff values |
| Date: | 2024–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h7px8 |
| By: | Diego Vallarino |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel approach to optimizing portfolio rebalancing by integrating Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for predicting transaction costs and Dijkstra's algorithm for identifying cost-efficient rebalancing paths. Using historical stock data from prominent technology firms, the GNN is trained to forecast future transaction costs, which are then applied as edge weights in a financial asset graph. Dijkstra's algorithm is used to find the least costly path for reallocating capital between assets. Empirical results show that this hybrid approach significantly reduces transaction costs, offering a powerful tool for portfolio managers, especially in high-frequency trading environments. This methodology demonstrates the potential of combining advanced machine learning techniques with classical optimization algorithms to improve financial decision-making processes. Future research will explore expanding the asset universe and incorporating reinforcement learning for continuous portfolio optimization. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.01864 |
| By: | Clément Nedoncelle (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julien Wolfersberger (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study how weather shocks affect firm-level exports in low and middle income countries. While the impacts are negative on average, we find that large firms are significantly less affected. This feature is robust across sub-samples, specifications and confounding factors. We then examine the aggregate implications of these firm-level effects by studying changes in total exports under different climate scenarios by the end of the century. Results show that the overall trade-deterring effect of future weather conditions would be lower if there were more large firms in low and middle income countries. It suggests that the existing firm-size distribution may increase the aggregate cost of climate change. |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, nous étudions comment les chocs climatiques affectent les exportations des entreprises dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire. Même si les impacts sont en moyenne négatifs, on constate que les grandes entreprises sont nettement moins touchées. Cette fonctionnalité est robuste aux sous-échantillons, aux spécifications et aux facteurs de confusion. Nous examinons ensuite les implications globales de ces effets au niveau des entreprises en étudiant les changements dans les exportations totales selon différents scénarios climatiques d'ici la fin du siècle. Les résultats montrent que l'effet dissuasif global des conditions climatiques futures sur le commerce serait moindre s'il y avait davantage de grandes entreprises dans les pays à revenu faible ou intermédiaire. Cela suggère que la répartition actuelle par taille d'entreprise pourrait augmenter le coût global du changement climatique. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Economic development, International trade, Firms Structure |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03753384 |
| By: | Ricardo Cabana Villca (University of La Serena); Felicindo Cortés (University Of La Serena); Domingo Vega Toro (University of La Serena) |
| Abstract: | This research aims to analyze leadership in a post-COVID 19 scenario in the public health sector, in the hospitals of La Serena and Coquimbo, in the Coquimbo region, Chile. A relational model with nine hypotheses is proposed, using structural equations through the method of partial least squares, making a differentiation between men and women, from the patients' perspective. It was determined that the quality of the service is a consequence of the positive, direct and indirect influence of effective communication and the empowerment of the work team, where its variance is explained by 82.4% (Men) and 56% (women). It is concluded that it is important to encourage the development of empathetic leadership within public health organizations and their work teams, not only for good care directed to patients and families, but also as a means to raise institutional reputation. |
| Keywords: | Public health, COVID 19, Leadership, Quality of care, Hospital management |
| JEL: | I10 L30 M19 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:14816098 |
| By: | Vanschoonbeek, Jakob |
| Abstract: | The recent rise and distinct geography of populism highlights the need for high resolution data on the economic and political landscapes and improved spatial political economy models that explain their interrelation. This paper shows that divergent development generates political externalities in lagging regions. To do so, it develops a dynamic spatial political economy model that integrates redistributive taxation and agglomerated economic growth in a standard economic geography framework. It finds that divergent development induces skill-biased labor mobility towards faster growing locations, simultaneously reducing their willingness to pay redistributive taxes and increasing their electoral influence on redistributive policy. To empirically validate and calibrate the model, the Spatial Political Economy in Europe Database (SPEED) is introduced, containing newly georeferenced electoral maps, political party classifications and gridded (per capita) GDP estimates for most European countries in the 17th release of the Constituency-Level Electoral Archive (CLEA). Instrumental variable regressions exploiting geographically-determined differences in economic growth potential confirm a strong constituency-level causal relation between underdevelopment and radical vote shares in the past two centuries. Counterfactual simulations suggests that policies that enhance labor mobility or income redistribution may both increase radical vote shares at least in the short run, as they risk fueling backlash in lagging and leading regions respectively. |
| Keywords: | Economic geography, political economy, political discontent, long-term effects of divergent development, quantitative model, populism, political extremism |
| JEL: | C51 C52 C63 C80 H21 J61 N93 N94 O40 R12 R32 Z18 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122310 |
| By: | Basteck, Christian; Ehlers, Lars |
| JEL: | C70 D63 D82 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc24:302429 |
| By: | Céline Grislain-Letrémy; Julie Sixou; Aurélie Sotura |
| Abstract: | During heatwaves, urban heat islands (UHI) affect cities neighborhoods heterogeneously due to differences in urban form, building quality, vegetation, and human activity. Some populations are particularly vulnerable, such as older adults and young children or low-income households, who have fewer options facing UHI. In this paper, for the first time, we measure UHI exposure among households depending on their income in the major French cities. We build and match finely localized data on temperature, vegetation, residential building density, height and period of construction, and households socioeconomic characteristics across nine of the largest French cities. We find that the relationship between UHI exposure and income depends on their pre-existing spatial sorting. In cities like Paris, the French capital, where both affluent and low-income households reside close to the city center, UHI exposure by income follows a U-shaped curve. In contrast, in cities where affluent households live in rich suburbs, like Lyon, France's second largest city, UHI exposure decreases with income. We also find that vulnerable households, defined by both age and income criteria, are slightly more exposed but far less able to renovate their dwellings or leave cities during heatwaves. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Urban Heat Islands; Urban Areas; Spatial Inequalities |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 R14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:966 |
| By: | Luis Aguiar; Joel Waldfogel; Axel Zeijen |
| Abstract: | Digitization has facilitated the emergence of large distribution platforms downstream from traditionally powerful suppliers. Digital platforms can carry many suppliers’ products, test the products’ consumer appeal, and choose which products to promote, potentially shifting power from the suppliers to the platforms. We study these forces in the recorded music industry, which was traditionally dominated by a few “major” record labels distributing their products through fragmented radio stations and retailers. Now, the majors receive most of their promotion and distribution through platforms like Spotify, which carry millions of songs from both major and “independent” suppliers. We study Spotify’s use of playlists using data covering 2017-2020. First, Spotify used their expanded playlist capacity to test – and discover – proportionately more independent songs to promote on their playlists. Second, at least relative to major-label playlists, Spotify-operated playlists promoted new independent songs more than was indicated by their subsequent success. Third, placement on Spotify new-music playlists has a large causal impact on streams. The independent-label share of new-music promotion rose from 38 percent in late 2017 to 55 percent in early 2020, which helps to explain the reported decline in the share of Spotify royalty payments to major-label suppliers over the same period. |
| JEL: | L13 L82 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33048 |
| By: | Kozo UEDA; Fei Gao |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how gamblers change their gambling and consumption behaviors after receiving gambling wins. We use novel bank transaction data from Japan, which contain information on both gambling bets and wins from public horse races with precise timelines. The estimation results reveal a positive marginal propensity to gamble (MPG) and consume (MPC) immediately following a win, al- though these effects dissipate within 12 weeks. Despite considerable heterogeneity in gambling intensity, the MPG and MPC remain stable. Light gamblers display no significant difference from non-gamblers in their MPC for government transfers in 2020. While liquidity constraints influence the MPC, they have no impact on the MPG. Moreover, we find little evidence supporting the loss-chasing effect, as gamblers increase bets when they are net winners. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:24-019e |
| By: | Colin Davis; Ken-ichi Hashimoto |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a two-country model to investigate how tariff policy in- fluences productivity growth through adjustments in industry location patterns. The locations of production and innovation are determined based on trade barriers and imperfect knowledge dissemination. Tariff policy has the effect of attracting firms, reshaping the location of industry, and the productivity of investment in innovation. We show that the relationship between tariff policy and economic growth depends on the industrial share of the country where the policy is implemented. In addition, examining the welfare effects of tariffs, we find that policy trade-offs may generate positive optimal tariff rates. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1259 |
| By: | Warner, James; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Mugabo, Serge; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Mukangabo, Emerence; Ingabire, Chantal |
| Abstract: | The importance of maize for Rwanda cannot be overstated. Most smallholder farmers, along the spectrum of both land size and level of commercialization, engage in both production, own consumption, and sale of maize. Unlike most other crops, maize is commonly produced by all levels of commercialized and subsistence smallholder farmers. For example, recent research revealed that even though almost half of all maize produced is sold (44%), only an average of 23 percent is marketed at the household level (Warner et al. 2024). This indicates that while maize is widely sold by most smallholders, it is disproportionally sold by those with relatively larger farms. Therefore, maize is important for both own consumption as well as commercial sales and price movements are critical for understanding potential welfare impacts on both buyers and sellers. Research presented here outlines some important maize price relationships, including multi-year trends, interrelationships between Rwandan markets and seasonality. Overall, we find strong correlation between all markets suggesting a good degree of integration but persistent individual market prices above and below national averages as well as seasonality that generally conforms to maize’s main harvest period (Season A). This policy brief provides an overview of maize prices in Rwanda in order to enhance evidence-based policymaking for targeting recommendations aimed at more integrated and stable maize market prices throughout the country. For example, seasonal price changes suggest an annual average price fluctuation of approximately 30 percent and if targeted policies could reduce this seasonal price variation, smallholder welfare would likely be improved. |
| Keywords: | Rwanda; Eastern Afica; consumption; maize; smallholders; welfare |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:rssppn:15 |