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on Investment |
| By: | David Neumark; Emma Wohl |
| Abstract: | One of the arguments increasingly made to support large minimum wage increases is that they decrease wage or earnings gaps for minorities or women (e.g., Derenoncourt and Montialoux, 2021). The argument is often made with particular reference to higher tipped minimum wages for restaurant workers, because of discrimination in tipping that is immune to equal pay policy requirements. Of course, even if higher tipped minimum wages reduce hourly pay differences between groups, increases in tipped minimum wages can reduce employment or hours among restaurant workers (Neumark and Yen, 2023), and these effects could differ by race and gender, so implications for hourly earnings do not necessarily extend to overall earnings. We estimate the impact of variation in tipped minimum wages – or, equivalently, tip credits – on earnings of restaurant workers (which ignores employment variation but incorporates hours variation). We find that tipped minimum wages raise hourly earnings of women, but not of Blacks or Hispanics. But tipped minimum wages generally do not raise weekly earnings for these groups (because of hours declines for women). In contrast, regular minimum wages boost hourly and weekly earnings of all three groups of restaurant workers, with the effects arising from non-tipped workers. |
| JEL: | J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32964 |
| By: | Arindrajit Dube; Attila S. Lindner |
| Abstract: | This chapter surveys the literature on the impact of minimum wages on low-wage labor markets. We describe and critically review the empirical methods in the new minimum wage literature, particularly those leveraging quasi-experimental variation. We provide a quantitative overview of the most recent evidence on the employment and wage effects of the policy, while also exploring emerging research on its impact on other margins, including amenities, other inputs (such as capital and high-skilled workers), firm entry and exit, output prices and demand, profits, and productivity. This approach allows us to present a comprehensive picture of how minimum wage policies affect firms, workers, and labor markets. We also review the evidence on the policy’s impact on wage inequality and income distribution. Finally, we discuss how these effects can vary depending on the economic context and the level of a country’s development. |
| JEL: | J20 J30 J8 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32878 |
| By: | Clément Cariou (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Amélie Charles (Audencia Business School, Nantes); Olivier Darné (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop nowcasting models for the Pays-de-la-Loire's jobseekers, a dynamic French regional economy. We ask whether these regional nowcasts are more accurate by only using the regional data or by combining the national and regional data. For this purpose, we use penalized regressions, random forest and dynamic factor models as well as dimension reduction approaches. The best nowcasting performance is provided by the DFM estimated on the regional and regional-national databases as well as the Elastic-Net model with a prior screening step for which the national data are the most frequently selected data. For the latter, it appears that the Change in foreign orders in the industry sector, the OECD Composite leading indicator and the BdF Business sentiment indicator are among the major predictors. |
| Keywords: | Jobseekers nowcasting regional data variable selection penalized regression factor model. JEL Classification: C53 C55 E01 E17 O40, Jobseekers, nowcasting, regional data, variable selection, penalized regression, factor model. JEL Classification: C53, C55, E01, E17, O40 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04675599 |
| By: | Arindrajit Dube; Michael Reich; Akash Bhatt; Denis Sosinskiy |
| Abstract: | Dube, Lester and Reich (2010, DLR), using state minimum wage discontinuities across bordering counties and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, did not detect negative minimum wage effects on restaurant employment. Jha, Neumark and Rodriguez-Lopez (2024, JNR) claim that looking within multi-state commuting zones and using County Business Patterns data provides a superior approach to DLR and does find disemployment effects. We show that JNR’s results are confounded by parallel trends violations in the 1990s, when minimum wage events were rare and small in magnitude; JNR’s outmoded two-way-fixed-effects model amplifies the biases introduced by these violations. Our estimates using their specifications and data on only post-2000 data fail to detect disemployment effects. The same results hold using QCEW and ACS datasets. Our preferred event study difference-in-differences approach, which analyzes only data that fall clearly within an event’s window, also does not detect negative employment effects. This result holds whether we compare across all states, look within commuting zones or within border county pairs, and regardless of the data set or time period. |
| JEL: | J20 J39 J88 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32902 |
| By: | Park, Jaeyoung |
| Abstract: | The escalating global demand for Asian movies and TV shows indicates a shift away from a Western-centric focus, particularly the United States, with Korean intellectual properties playing a pivotal role. Since the late 1990s, Korean productions have established a regional network within East Asia and, with the advent of digital platforms, achieved a transnational reach. However, investments from global platforms like Netflix, while fostering Korean intellectual properties, often result in these platforms retaining complete content rights, limiting further utilization by local producers. Additionally, there are concerns that platform-driven production may diminish the innovativeness of content by standardizing storytelling and formats. Therefore, Korean content productions need to develop their own transnational network to fully leverage the benefits of transnationalization. Among transnationalization strategies, this paper focuses on transnational inbound innovation as a valid strategy, given that acquiring innovative IP is critical in the content business. To address this, the study proposes a decision model for Korean productions to source original intellectual properties from Asian countries using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Focusing on select Asian countries—Indonesia, Thailand, and India—known for significant Korean content consumption and collaboration experience, the study aims to measure the priorities of alternatives and criteria influencing this decision-making process. |
| Keywords: | Transnationalization, innovation management, inbound innovation, Korean content production, Asian original IP, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), multicriteria decision-making |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302479 |
| By: | Kim, Jung Ho; Lee, Dayoung; Hwang, Junseok; Lee, Junmin |
| Abstract: | In the relentless pursuit of urban prosperity and sustainability, cities worldwide are undergoing transformative changes, spurred by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and digital transformation(DX). At the forefront of this evolution are Smart Cities, which leverage cutting-edge information and communication technologies (ICT) to enhance public services and improve the overall quality of life for their inhabitants. These technologically advanced cities utilize data-driven decision-making to optimize various sectors, from mobility to governance, promising a new era of urban living. However, technologies that enable smart cities to develop, also risk deepening the digital divide. ICT infrastructure is a crucial element to smart cities' development, but it often overlooks the disparities in digital access and skills among different demographic groups. Preliminary research predominantly focuses on the technological and industrial components necessary for developing smart cities but falls short in addressing the social dimension, particularly the digital divide. This study aims to bridge this gap by exploring the digital divide within the context of Korean smart cities. The research conducts an empirical analysis of whole South Korean 229 cities and analyzes the impact of ICT infrastructure provision, knowledge-intensive industry specialization, and local governance capability alleviating or exacerbating digital divide. |
| Keywords: | Smart City, Digital Divide, ICT Infrastructure, Knowledge-Intensive Indusrtry, Governance Capability, Spatial Autocorrelation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302514 |
| By: | Haris, Faldi; Rahadi, Raden Aswin |
| Abstract: | VC investment has undergone a substantial transition, particularly in emerging countries, where there is a growing entrepreneurial culture. Southeast Asia (SEA) has emerged as an image of trust due to its remarkable accomplishments in venture capital funding. Notwithstanding, the VC success rate is quite low, with up to 75 percent of venture-backed businesses failing to return cash to their investors and 30 to 40 percent of those 75 percent liquidating their assets, resulting in their investors losing their entire investment (Ghosh, 2012). In light of this context, this study sets out to investigate the behavior of venture capital firms in Southeast Asia and the complex decision-making processes involved. This research aims to enhance the success rate of VC firms and contribute to the advancement of VC literature by precisely identifying the relevant parameter. This study seeks to analyze the complex landscape of venture capital activities in a highly dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem, using the complete framework created by Gompers et al. (2023). A case study, a widely recognized method in exploratory research, is used as the primary methodology to reveal novel themes and insights obtained from respondents in venture capital firms. Using a semi-structured interview, this study implies that VC fund structure and strategy, start-up screening criteria, start-up valuation, exit, and risk management have a significant effect on determining SEA VC firm investment decisions. This study is one of the first efforts to utilize Gompers et al.'s (2023) framework in the specific setting of Southeast Asia. This study contributes to the current research on venture capital decision-making by providing innovative measurement parameters, with a particular emphasis on the notion of "runway." These features, which relate to a startup's expenditure rate and its long-term viability offer a broader understanding of the financial factors that impact investments made by SEA VC companies. |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:t3byd |
| By: | Laurent Busca (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier, UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Consumer research is generally quick to emphasize the reflexive, agentic aspects of consumption, although it also shows how strongly material and discursive structures constrain this agency. But is consumption necessarily a matter of agency, for the individuals themselves? Using a Foucauldian approach, this paper seeks to explore this question through the characterization of meh, a kind of voluntary indifference, as a form of morality resistant to the governmentality of consumption. We propose that meh is a moral form characterized by individuals' focus on a certain moral substance, namely the refusal of their agentic capacity, which distinguishes it from both "classic" consumption and resistant anti-consumption. We attempt to characterize how meh could be another form of resistance to consumption, and could take multiple forms in its everyday incarnation. |
| Abstract: | La consumer research est généralement prompte à souligner les aspects réflexifs et agentiques de la consommation, bien qu'elle montre également à quel point les structures matérielles et discursives contraignent très fortement cette agence. Mais la consommation estelle nécessairement affaire d'agence, pour les individus eux-mêmes ? En mobilisant une approche foucaldienne, ce travail tente de creuser cette question à travers la caractérisation du balek, une sorte d'indifférence volontaire, en tant que forme de moralité résistante à la gouvernementalité de la consommation. Nous proposons que le balek est une forme morale qui se caractérise par sa focalisation par les individus sur une certaine substance morale, à savoir le refus de leur capacité agentique, qui la distingue d'une part de la consommation « classique » mais également de l'anti-consommation résistante. Nous tentons de caractériser en quoi le balek pourrait être une autre forme de résistance à la consommation, et pourrait prendre des formes multiples dans son incarnation quotidienne. |
| Keywords: | Foucault, governmentality, moral, indifference, consumption, gouvernementalité, morale, indifférence, consommation |
| Date: | 2023–11–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04680801 |
| By: | Shurong Lin; Eric Kolaczyk |
| Abstract: | In a data-driven world, two prominent research problems are record linkage and data privacy, among others. Record linkage is essential for improving decision-making by integrating information of the same entities from different sources. On the other hand, data privacy research seeks to balance the need to extract accurate insights from data with the imperative to protect the privacy of the entities involved. Inevitably, data privacy issues arise in the context of record linkage. This article identifies two complementary aspects at the intersection of these two fields: (1) how to ensure privacy during record linkage and (2) how to mitigate privacy risks when releasing the analysis results after record linkage. We specifically discuss privacy-preserving record linkage, differentially private regression, and related topics. |
| JEL: | C0 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32940 |
| By: | Ramos Rodríguez, Pablo David (Universidad de los Andes); Mejía, Daniel (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Este estudio analiza la variación en la luminosidad nocturna capturada con imágenes satelitales con el objetivo de estimar las condiciones que explican el efecto de la iluminación en espacios públicos sobre la indicencia del crimen. Para esto, se estima un modelo panel mensual de efectos fijos con grillas de 463 metros cuadrados de las 6 principales ciudades de Colombia entre 2014 y 2018. Ante aumentos de una desviación estándar en el histórico de luminosidad para cada grilla, se encuentra un aumento en los delitos contra la vida (+3, 2% a +9, 6 %) en lugares exteriores por aumento en las oportunidades de cometer crimen por mayor actividad económica y social; así como una disuasión de los delitos contra la propiedad (-1, 9% a -4, 4 %) y contra la vida (-3, 3% a -4, 5 %) en lugares interiores por mayores posibilidades de ocupación legal en vez de criminal. Aunque no predomina, hay evidencia que sugiere que el mecanismo de disuasión por vigilancia natural opera y atenúa el efecto del mecanismo de oportunidades de crimen. |
| Keywords: | Luminosidad nocturna; crimen urbano; imágenes satelitales. |
| JEL: | D91 I38 K14 |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021194 |
| By: | Yifan Jia; Yanbin Wang; Jianguo Sun; Yiwei Liu; Zhang Sheng; Ye Tian |
| Abstract: | Ethereum faces growing fraud threats. Current fraud detection methods, whether employing graph neural networks or sequence models, fail to consider the semantic information and similarity patterns within transactions. Moreover, these approaches do not leverage the potential synergistic benefits of combining both types of models. To address these challenges, we propose TLMG4Eth that combines a transaction language model with graph-based methods to capture semantic, similarity, and structural features of transaction data in Ethereum. We first propose a transaction language model that converts numerical transaction data into meaningful transaction sentences, enabling the model to learn explicit transaction semantics. Then, we propose a transaction attribute similarity graph to learn transaction similarity information, enabling us to capture intuitive insights into transaction anomalies. Additionally, we construct an account interaction graph to capture the structural information of the account transaction network. We employ a deep multi-head attention network to fuse transaction semantic and similarity embeddings, and ultimately propose a joint training approach for the multi-head attention network and the account interaction graph to obtain the synergistic benefits of both. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.07494 |
| By: | Bhakta, Sayan; van Heel, Marin |
| Abstract: | Electron microscopy has been an important method for visualising biological structures and processes since the 1940s. The discovery of a practical vitreous-ice specimen-preparation technique in the mid-1980s [Adrian 1984] led to modern-day Cryogenic Electron Microscopy (Cryo-EM) which in recent years has become a major technique for studying the architecture of biological macromolecules. Many further instrumental and data-analysis improvements were established in the decades after the introduction of the “vitreous-ice” state of water. Especially the advent of direct electron detectors boosted the quality of the recorded data, allowing atomic-resolution information of biological complexes to be harvested in the early 2010s, developments that truly revolutionized the use of Cryo-EM in structural biology. Single-Particle Analysis (SPA) of isolated molecules, prepared in a thin layer of vitreous water, has proven a most successful approach in structural biology and now often supplants the use of classical techniques like X-ray crystallography, especially for large biological complexes. The ever-increasing number of researchers using Cryo-EM is reflected by the growing number of depositions in the Electron Microscopy Data Bank (EMDB). Explaining this methodology to a new generation of researchers has now become a priority. In writing this review we were reminded of some persistent confusions that emerged in the early days of Cryo-EM but that continue to muddle the field. A new problem with the prolific use of Graphic User Interfaces (GUIs), is that the underlying methodology is often no longer transparent to the users of these “black boxes”. Complicated procedures, well hidden behind a GUI window, may contain methodological flaws that the user must be aware of. The conquering of markets in this booming Cryo-EM field – crucial for developing new pharmaceuticals – must not prevail over scientific integrity. We here describe and critically review the principles of single-particle Cryo-EM. We warn for procedures that have gone astray and could generate serious problems especially in the quality-control of Single-Particle Cryogenic Electron Microscopy. |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5empt |
| By: | Jun He; Andrew L. Liu |
| Abstract: | The integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into wholesale energy markets can greatly enhance grid flexibility, improve market efficiency, and contribute to a more sustainable energy future. As DERs -- such as solar PV panels and energy storage -- proliferate, effective mechanisms are needed to ensure that small prosumers can participate meaningfully in these markets. We study a wholesale market model featuring multiple DER aggregators, each controlling a portfolio of DER resources and bidding into the market on behalf of the DER asset owners. The key of our approach lies in recognizing the repeated nature of market interactions the ability of participants to learn and adapt over time. Specifically, Aggregators repeatedly interact with each other and with other suppliers in the wholesale market, collectively shaping wholesale electricity prices (aka the locational marginal prices (LMPs)). We model this multi-agent interaction using a mean-field game (MFG), which uses market information -- reflecting the average behavior of market participants -- to enable each aggregator to predict long-term LMP trends and make informed decisions. For each aggregator, because they control the DERs within their portfolio under certain contract structures, we employ a mean-field control (MFC) approach (as opposed to a MFG) to learn an optimal policy that maximizes the total rewards of the DERs under their management. We also propose a reinforcement learning (RL)-based method to help each agent learn optimal strategies within the MFG framework, enhancing their ability to adapt to market conditions and uncertainties. Numerical simulations show that LMPs quickly reach a steady state in the hybrid mean-field approach. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the combination of energy storage and mean-field learning significantly reduces price volatility compared to scenarios without storage. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.00107 |
| By: | Mogens Fosgerau; Nikolaj Nielsen; Mads Paulsen; Thomas Kj{\ae}r Rasmussen; Rui Yao |
| Abstract: | This paper considers substitution patterns in the perturbed utility route choice model. We provide a general result that determines the marginal change in link flows following a marginal change in link costs across the network. We give a general condition on the network structure under which all paths are necessarily substitutes and an example in which some paths are complements. The presence of complementarity contradicts a result in a previous paper in this journal; we point out and correct the error. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08347 |
| By: | Campos, Nicolás (Inter-American Development Bank); Chalup, Miguel (Arizona State University); Mitnik, Oscar A. (Inter-American Development Bank); Urquidi, Manuel (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We provide quasi-experimental estimates of the impact of reforming public training programs offered in Paraguay on formal employment. The Programa de Apoyo a la Inserción Laboral (PAIL) revamped training program design in the country by offering courses aligned with the needs of the private sector, enhancing non-cognitive skills, and combining practical work within companies with classroom training. We combine administrative records—which contain detailed information on the employment history and characteristics of all formal workers in Paraguay—with an empirical strategy based on extensions of difference-in-differences models and synthetic difference-in-differences. We find that the probability of obtaining formal employment for women and men increases by 11 percentage points. Even two years after participating, the program has a lasting impact on women, an aspect not observed for men. Additionally, the program's impact is positive only in the metropolitan area of Asunción; the program is less effective in areas far from the urban center, especially for men. The observed results suggest that supply-side interventions are ineffective if no formal jobs are available for the beneficiaries. |
| Keywords: | public training programs, active labor market policies, formal employment |
| JEL: | J24 J38 J68 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17254 |
| By: | Görlitz, Katja (Hochschule der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (HdBA)); Heß, Pascal (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Tamm, Marcus (Hochschule der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (HdBA)) |
| Abstract: | This study provides a policy evaluation of laws allowing early school enrollment of children, i.e., enrollment before the official school starting age. It investigates the effects of early enrollment on educational attainment, wages and employment. While the school starting age is usually determined by children's date of birth and legal cutoffs, some German states allowed early enrollment in some years. Exploiting state and cohort variation, the results show that male early enrollees attain fewer years of schooling, enter the labor market earlier and have a larger labor market attachment at around age 16. Positive wage effects persist until approximately age 35. Results for women roughly resemble those for men but they are less convincingly estimated. |
| Keywords: | early enrollment policy, early school entry, wages, employment, school starting age |
| JEL: | I28 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17303 |
| By: | Mr. Mario Catalan; Mr. Salih Fendoglu; Tomohiro Tsuruga |
| Abstract: | Do geopolitical tensions between countries influence the cross-border asset allocation of investment funds? Our answer is yes. We estimate gravity models and find that investment funds allocate smaller shares of their portfolios to recipient countries that are geopolitically more distant to their country of origin—with geopolitical distance measured by dissimilarity in countries’ voting behavior in the United Nations General Assembly. We also find an investment diversion effect: a recipient country attracts additional investments when its source countries get geopolitically more distant to third-party countries. These results are robust to instrumenting geopolitical distance and using alternative distance measures. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; geopolitics; geoeconomics; fragmentation; portfolioflows; cross-border; asset allocation; investment funds; gravitymodel; international finance. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/196 |
| By: | Jacob D. Leshno; Elaine Shi; Rafael Pass |
| Abstract: | Bitcoin demonstrated the possibility of a financial ledger that operates without the need for a trusted central authority. However, concerns persist regarding its security and considerable energy consumption. We assess the consensus protocols that underpin Bitcoin's functionality, questioning whether they can ensure economically meaningful security while maintaining a permissionless design that allows free entry of operators. We answer this affirmatively by constructing a protocol that guarantees economic security and preserves Bitcoin's permissionless design. This protocol's security does not depend on monetary payments to miners or immense electricity consumption, which our analysis suggests are ineffective. Our framework integrates economic theory with distributed systems theory, and highlights the role of the protocol's user community. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.08951 |
| By: | Alyssa Carlson (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia) |
| Abstract: | Previously, identification of triangular random coefficient models required a restriction on the dimension of the first stage heterogeneity or independence assumptions across the different sources of the heterogeneity. This note proposes a new identification strategy that does not rely on either of these restrictions but rather assumes conditional means have a conditional linear projection representation in order to construct “correction functions†to address endogeneity and gain identification of the average partial effect. This identification strategy allows for both continuous and discrete instruments. Finally, the proposed identification method is illustrated in estimating the returns to education. |
| Keywords: | Endogeneity, Control Function, Random Coefficient, Conditional Linear Projection |
| JEL: | C3 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2409 |
| By: | Andrew B. Abel; Stavros Panageas |
| Abstract: | We characterize a planner's optimal allocation of consumption and capital in an overlapping generations model with exogenous government purchases, privately-observed idiosyncratic shocks to the depreciation rate of capital, and a proportional cost of reversing investment to transform used capital to consumption. We show how a package of various taxes and government bonds can finance government purchases and support the same balanced growth path as in the planner's optimum. The optimal tax rate on capital income implements the planner's optimal (but incomplete) sharing of idiosyncratic depreciation risks, while respecting the private nature of these risks. |
| JEL: | E6 H2 H6 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32961 |
| By: | Pascal Beckers; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ksenija Ivanović; Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Friedrich Poeschel; Alireza Sabouniha (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of labour shortages on migration aspirations and destination preferences among individuals from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. Using a two-stage Heckman selection model, we analyse data from the OeNB Euro Survey and the World Bank’s STEP Measurement Program. The results indicate that labour shortages significantly influence migration decisions individuals are more likely to aspire to migrate if there is a shortage of workers in their occupation in the aspired destination countries, while shortages in their home country reduce migration aspirations. These findings suggest that both origin and destination countries should consider labour market conditions when formulating migration policies. For destination countries, highlighting demand for specific skills can attract needed workers, while Western Balkan countries should address the education-labour market mismatch to mitigate local shortages. Policy co-ordination between regions is crucial to manage migration flows and address skill gaps without exacerbating local shortages. |
| Keywords: | migration drivers, migration aspirations/desires, destination decision, choice model |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:252 |